International Rubber Study Group

The World Rubber Industry: review to 2020
India Rubber Expo 2011
Chennai, India
19-21 January 2011
Prepared by the IRSG Secretariat
www.rubberstudy.com

Themes





World economy as defined by GDP
Vehicle Sector
Tyre sector
Rubber demand forecast
Rubber supply forecast
Potential supply constraints
Potential pricing direction

Data Sources





World economy as defined by GDP is provided by the
IMF and last published in October 2010. Beyond 2015,
IRSG uses its own model projections.
Rubber demand forecast as defined by IRSG
Vehicle and Tyre sector data supported by LMC
Natural Rubber supply potential as defined by IRSG
Oil price forecast as defined by US EIA, May 2010
Feedstock and Synthetic Rubber sector data supported
by CMAI & IISRP.

Global GDP Growth (IMF sourced, %)
6

5
4
3
2
1
0
-1

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

(Millions of Units) 1200 1000 800 PC 600 LCV M/HCV 400 200 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 .Vehicles in Use.

Vehicle Production. (Millions of Units) 90 80 70 60 50 PC LCV 40 M/HCV 30 20 10 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 .

9 2011 7.1 29.4 18.Growth in Vehicle Production.6 8.3 2012 6.7 2010 20.1 (% per annum) .3 2015 3.8 0.3 2018 -0.9 2020 1.7 -1.2 -3.4 -22. % Annual Growth Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles 2008 -4.6 2.4 2009 -12.

Vehicle Tyre Sales. (Millions of Units) 450 400 350 300 250 PC LCV 200 M/HCV 150 100 50 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 . Original Equipment.

Vehicle Tyre Sales. Replacement. (Millions of Units) 1400 1200 1000 800 PC LCV 600 M/HCV 400 200 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 .

(% per annum) % Annual Growth Passenger Car Tyres Commercial Vehicle Tyres 2008 -2.6 16.5 8.8 .1 11.4 -10.6 -0.2 2015 4.2 2011 6.9 2009 -5.9 0.8 2020 3.0 2018 1.Growth in Tyre Sales.5 4.0 4.0 2012 5.3 2010 10.

9 2020 .Rubber Consumption 2020. (Millions of MT) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 Tyres 21.4 2000 2005 2010 General Rubber Goods 12.5 2015 Total 33.

9 2020 Total 15.4 2010 2015 General Rubber Goods 3.Natural Rubber Consumption 2020 (Millions of MT) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005 Tyres 11.4 .

5 .6 2020 Total 18.9 2010 2015 General Rubber Goods 8.Synthetic Rubber Consumption 2020 (Millions of MT) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005 Tyres 9.

9 2020 .4 2000 2005 2010 Synthetic Rubber 18.5 2015 Total 33. (Millions of MT) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 Natural Rubber 15.Global Rubber Consumption by Type to 2020.

3 . (Millions of MT) 25 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2010 Natural Rubber 11.Tyre Rubber Consumption by Type to 2020.9 2020 Total 21.4 2015 Synthetic Rubber 9.

0 Total 33.4 2020 .9 IMF Synthetic Rubber 18.Global Rubber Consumption by Type to 2020 Low Oil Price Scenario (Millions of MT) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Low Oil Natural Rubber 14.9 Natural Rubber 15.5 Total 33.9 Synthetic Rubber 19.

World Rubber Consumption.4 3.8 6.3 .3 5.5 2009 21.5 0.5 2010 24.3 2012 27.3 2011 25.6 2018 32.5 2015 30.2 2020 33.3 15.1 -7.9 3.8 -2. (Millions MT) Consumption Total Rubber Volume Million MT Annual Growth % 2008 22.

Rubber Consumption. (KT) 30000 25000 20000 China Europe 15000 India Japan USA 10000 Global 5000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 .

5 2020 15.3 2018 14.1 .4 1.2 4. (Millions of MT) Consumption Natural Rubber Volume MT Annual Growth % 2008 10.0 2009 9.Global Natural Rubber Consumption.0 2011 11.6 3.1 4.1 2010 10.4 4.7 15.9 2015 13.2 0.3 -9.6 2012 11.

Global Synthetic Rubber Consumption.3 2010 13.0 2018 18.6 2012 15.5 2.8 2020 18.3 3.1 -0. (Millions of MT) Consumption Synthetic Rubber Volume MT Annual Growth % 2008 12.7 7.6 2011 14.8 -6.6 -4.7 2009 11.7 6.7 2015 17.6 15.7 .

Natural Rubber Consumption Share to 2020 (%) 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 .

(KT) 15000 12500 10000 7500 5000 2500 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Total 13.Global Natural Rubber Normal Production.8 million MT in 2020 2015 2020 .

Thailand Age Distribution of Area (KHa) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1975 1980 1985 <0-6> 1990 <7-13> 1995 <14-20> 2000 <21-27> 2005 2010 <28-34> 2015 <35 +> 2020 .

Thailand Natural Rubber Production (KT) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 .

Indonesia Smallholding Age Distribution of Area (KHa) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1975 1980 1985 <0-6> 1990 <7-13> 1995 <14-20> 2000 <21-27> 2005 2010 <28-34> 2015 <35 +> 2020 .

Indonesia Natural Rubber Production (KT) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 .

Malaysia Smallholding Age Distribution of Area (KHa) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1975 1980 1985 <35 +> 1990 <28-34> 1995 <21-27> 2000 2005 <14-20> 2010 <7-13> 2015 <0-6> 2020 .

Malaysia Natural Rubber Production (KT) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 .

Vietnam Age Distribution of Area (KHa) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1975 1980 <35 +> 1985 <28-34> 1990 1995 <21-27> 2000 <14-20> 2005 2010 <7-13> <0-6> 2015 2020 .

Vietnam Natural Rubber Production (KT) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 .

with petrochemical cracker diets going lighter. butadiene supply being constrained. this above narrow view must now be challenged and built into future scenarios for modeling activities. going forward. plus its price becoming uncoupled from traditional crude oil price drivers. Based on recent market experience.Synthetic Rubber Supply to 2020   IRSG has historically assumed that monomer feedstocks and manufacturing capacity is available on an unlimited basis. .

Butadiene Demand 2014. (KT) 9000 8000 7000 6000 ABS 5000 Adiponitrile 4000 Synthetic Rubber Others 3000 2000 1000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 .

Butadiene Supply 2014. (KT) 16000 14000 12000 BD Capacity 10000 BD Production 8000 BD Demand C4 Supply 6000 4000 2000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 .

80 Bitumen Gas oil Gasoline Fuel gas Butadiene Butylene Propylene Ethylene 0.90 0.Olefin Cracker Yields.40 0.60 0.50 0.00 Ethane Propane Butane Naphtha Gas Oil .30 0.00 0.10 0. (MT for MT of Feedstock) 1.20 0.70 0.

Theoretical Global Natural Rubber Scenarios (KT) 16000 15000 14000 13000 12000 Actual Production 11000 Demand 10000 Negative Factors New Surge NP 9000 Normal Production 8000 7000 6000 2000 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 .

Theoretical Global Synthetic Rubber Scenarios (KT) 20000 18000 16000 14000 Actual Production 12000 Demand 10000 Nameplate Capacity 8000 6000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 .

Price Trends (USD per MT) 4000 3500 3000 2500 NR 2000 BR BD 1500 Crude 1000 500 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 .

(EIA sourced in USD per barrel) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 .Crude Oil Price to 2020.

0 BD-Crude SR-BD NR-BD 2.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 .0 4.0 NR-Crude SR-Crude 3.0 5.Price Ratio Trends 6.0 NR-SR 1.

It is vital to understand the global Oil – Natural Gas position and their impact on Butadiene and Synthetic Rubber availability and price going forward. which is not fully reflected in current supply forecasts. Current high market prices for Natural Rubber may stimulate a further surge in new planting area as last seen in the 2005-08 period. .Conclusions    Supply of Natural Rubber (based on Normal Production) and Synthetic Rubber (based on Nameplate Capacity) are both undersupplied by more than 1MMT each by 2020 versus premised demand.

headquartered in London. PLEASE COME AND JOIN IRSG AND TALK TO US!!! . UK As of July 2008. IRSG is the forum for the discussion of matters affecting the supply and demand for natural as well as synthetic rubber.International Rubber Study Group       Who are we? Established in 1944 as an inter-governmental organisation. the Group has been based in Singapore. Authoritative source of statistical data and analysis for all aspects of the rubber industry.

International Rubber Study Group Thank You for Your Attention .

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