2013

T h e O u t l oo k f o r E n e r g y : A V i e w to 2 0 4 0 – U. S. E d i t i o n

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India and other fast-developing countries in Asia Pacific. oil and natural gas production has risen to its highest level in three decades. consumption – will enable North America to become a net energy exporter by about 2025 and bring significant benefits to the U. ExxonMobil has served America’s energy needs for 130 years. economic and population trends.S.S. especially when combined with another major energy trend under way in the United States: a pronounced shift away from coal in favor of less-carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas.S.The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The world’s energy landscape is always changing – the result of new technologies. boosted by U. Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere. The Outlook for Energy . the United States is just one part of the global energy market. from 2010 to 2040 energy usage in the United States – the world’s second-largest energy consumer after China – is projected to fall by about 5 percent. government policies.exxonmobil. ExxonMobil expects that the combination of these two trends – steep gains in energy production and modest declines in U. Reduced U. billions of dollars in taxes and government revenue. Largely because of ongoing efficiency improvements.S.S. version of our global Outlook for Energy will shed light on the transformative changes that are reshaping America’s energy landscape. Today. the Middle East and Latin America. which must meet the needs of a population projected to rise from 7 billion today to close to 9 billion by 2040. ExxonMobil expects that by 2040.S. ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy sees U. and consumer choices. We hope this U. including Texas. even as the U. This domestic energy renaissance has created significant economic benefits for the United States. increased manufacturing activity. nowhere is the energy landscape changing more than it is in the United States. population grows and economic output doubles. economy. But rising energy production is only half of the story. ExxonMobil sees global energy demand rising by about 35 percent from 2010 to 2040.S.S. oil and gas production continuing to grow over the coming decades as shale and other unconventional resource output combines with new supplies from the deepwater U. Of course. and the opportunities they present to further strengthen the country’s economy and its role in the global marketplace. Note: Excerpted from ExxonMobil’s 2013 global publication. Africa. energy consumption also will provide environmental benefits. as advances in technology have unlocked vast resources of oil and gas that are located in shale and other tight rock formations in many states. driven by growth in China. The complete report can be found at http://www. The United States also continues to reduce its energy consumption. America’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will have fallen back to levels not seen since the 1970s.com/energyoutlook The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 1 . including: lower energy costs for businesses and individuals. ExxonMobil expects North America’s liquids and natural gas production to rise by about 45 percent from 2010 to 2040. and new opportunities to expand America’s role in the global energy trade. U.S. millions of new jobs. North Dakota and Pennsylvania. including opportunities associated with natural gas exports. activity.

com/energyoutlook . 2 exxonmobil. But the relationship between America’s economy and its energy usage is changing.-made goods and services.Energy demand Access to energy remains vital not only to the lives of the more than 300 million Americans. especially in the transportation sector. technologies and the provision of U. After climbing steadily for decades. businesses and industries that use energy to support jobs.S.S. but also to U. This fundamental shift will be driven by improvements to energy efficiency. energy demand will level off and begin to decline through 2040 – even as its economy and population continue to grow.S. U.

2040 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 3 .% 30 2010 Electricity demand. the single biggest driver of energy in the United States. grows 30 percent by 2040.

Although the rate of growth is slowing. Improved efficiency. however. energy demand will be essentially flat through 2040. economic growth drive energy demand. population. ExxonMobil projects that global energy demand growth through 2040 would be nearly four times the projected 35 percent were it not for expected gains in efficiency. up from about 7 billion today – an increase equal to six times the current U.ai 1/1/00 96 320 0 Demand US ROW Savings .com/energyoutlook 21000 Data as of 11/18/2012 For: GCG Data as of 11/18/2012 Scott Turner/ Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600 File name: 04A 2012 XOMEO US-GlobalPop. a significant increase that will require trillions of dollars in investment and ongoing advances in energy technology. Global GDP is projected to expand by about 130 percent from 2010 to 2040. Another factor is rising prosperity and economic growth around the world. In fact.Population. increased energy fuels. The expanded use of energy-saving technologies and practices in every country. energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to plateau around 2030. such as China and India. and across all end-use sectors. both globally and domestically Global demand for energy is expected to rise by about 35 percent from 2010 to 2040. 1000 80 Energy savings through efficiency gains 800 Energy saved ~500 60 600 9 40 6 400 Rest of world 3 20 200 United States 0 2000 2020 2040 0 2000 2020 2040 0 2000 2020 2040 XOM Energy Outlook US Ed. with emissions from OECD nations falling by about 20 percent and Non OECD emissions rising by 50 percent. plus the shift to less-carbon-intensive Energy demand trends will vary greatly by country type. 2012 4 exxonmobil. globally. In these more mature economies. Trends will vary greatly by country. demand from economic growth will be offset by improvements to efficiency. In Non OECD countries. which includes the United States. demand is seen rising by 65 percent as rapid increases in economic output and prosperity levels outpace gains in efficiency. will save a tremendous amount of energy – an estimated 500 quadrillion British thermal units (BTU) a year by 2040. by 2040 there will be nearly 9 billion people on the planet. Among members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Global population Billions of people 21 Global GDP Trillions of 2005 dollars 120 Global energy demand Quadrillion BTUs 1400 18 15 75 % 100 1200 12 75 percent of the world’s population will reside in Asia Pacific and Africa by 2040. which will create new demands for energy. One reason for rising energy demand is population growth.S. also will help curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Overall U. U.S. coal consumption is expected to drop by more than 65 percent. by 2040. demand for energy will be more than offset by gains in energy efficiency. As the world’s largest economy. over the next few decades.S. energy-related CO2 emissions by sector Billion tons Other renewables 6 Biomass Residential/commercial 5 80 80 Residential/ commercial Nuclear Industrial Coal 60 60 4 Industrial Transportation Gas 40 40 3 Electricity generation 2 20 Electricity generation 20 Oil 1 Transportation 0 2000 2020 2040 0 2000 2020 2040 0 2000 2020 2040 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 XOM Energy Outlook US Ed.S. Because of improved efficiency and the increased use of natural gas.S. As a result.S. per-capita emissions still will be higher than in other countries.S. Wind. residential/commercial and industrial. underlying fundamentals that would tend to drive increases in U. the U. coal will account for about 7 percent of U. ExxonMobil sees U.S. even by 2040 U. On the other hand. energy demand by fuel Quadrillion BTUs 100 U. The country also has relatively high per-capita energy use. energy demand by sector Quadrillion BTUs 100 U. even as GDP doubles. U.S. solar and biofuels also grow sharply. shifts to less-carbon-intensive fuels The United States will continue its shift toward less-carbonintensive fuels. While populations in many OECD nations will shrink over the next 30 years. U. but fall in the other major demand sectors: transportation. However. down from more than 20 percent in 2010.America will use less energy even as GDP doubles After many decades of rising energy consumption.S. 2012 5 XOM Energy .S. 2012 DATA as of Nov.S. demand for fuel for electricity generation will rise slightly. One factor supporting U. Broken down by sector. use of nuclear power is expected to rise by about 25 percent from 2025 through 2040. with steady gains in its “working-age” group (those 15 to 64 years of age).S. U.S. energy consumption is expected to gradually plateau and then decline by about 5 percent from 2010 to 2040. as energy-related technologies – everything from vehicles to air-conditioning – are already widely deployed throughout the country. demand. population will expand by more than 20 percent. these renewable fuels will meet about 7 percent of U. energy. demand for natural gas will rise by more than 25 percent to 2040. Technologies that have expanded production of shale gas across the U. will help meet this demand.S. 16. renewables and nuclear.S. by 2040. the United States already has achieved relatively high living standards. U. This is due in part to new policies and regulations that will effectively raise the price of more-carbon-intensive fuels. energy-related CO2 emissions falling by more than 25 percent from 2010 to 2040. the United States appears to have reached a point where it can continue to expand its economy and prosperity while maintaining a fairly stable level of energy usage. U. economic expansion is its population. reaching levels not seen since the 1970s.S. particularly in the electricity generation sector.S.

by 2007. built since 1990 are nearly 30 percent larger than homes built before 1990. hospitals tend to require about twice as much energy per square foot as most other types of commercial buildings. plus commercial buildings such as offices. homes One noteworthy growth area is hospitals. total energy demand for residential use grew by only about 20 percent over the last 20 years. that number had risen to 5.g.3 percent of U.S. schools and medical facilities.5 percent. total energy demand is expected to rise by more than 10 percent between 2010 and 2040. While new U. homes already have seen significant improvements in efficiency. in 2003 hospitals accounted for 4. Residential/commercial demand by sector Quadrillion BTUs 20 Residential/commercial demand by fuel Quadrillion BTUs 20 15 Commercial 15 Electricity 10 10 5 Residential 5 Gas Coal Other 0 2000 2020 2040 0 Oil 2000 2020 2040 6 exxonmobil. commercial energy demand. by about 5 percent. stores. the result of factors such as better insulation and energy-saving appliances.com/energyoutlook XOM Energy Outlook US Ed. natural gas for cooking and heating) plus net delivered electricity used in these structures. While direct energy use in the residential/commercial sector will fall by more than 15 percent over the Outlook period. U. largely because of an expected steady increase in commercial square footage in the United States.S. According to government data. In addition. Nearly 30 percent of the energy used in the United States is directed to this enduse sector. counting both direct energy usage (e.. One reason is improved efficiency.Efficiency to curb demand in residential/commercial sector The residential/commercial sector represents America’s singleand multi-family residences. demand is expected to peak in 2025. In the residential subsector. 2012 . then decline through 2040. total energy demand (including delivered electricity) in this sector is projected to rise slightly.S. In the commercial subsector.

Yet even as U.S. as the economy recovers and commercial construction and manufacturing expand. economic recovery and growth. and fertilizer production is seen rising by nearly 50 percent from 2010 to 2040. oil and gas production and refining). in conjunction with projected U. North America’s chemicals production is expected to rise by more than 20 percent in just the years from 2012 to 2020. but energy demand stays flat Domestic manufacturing and other industrial activity is expected to grow steadily over the next few decades. reflecting ongoing improvements in efficiency such as process intensification and energy-use management systems. steel production is expected to return to 2007 levels. chemicals and energy – uses oil and natural gas not just as fuel but also in many cases as feedstock for the manufacture of other products. mostly because of the expanded use of advanced energy-saving technologies such as cogeneration. U. from 2025 to 2040 energy consumption will decline by about 5 percent. such as plastics and fertilizer. rising North American oil and gas production is expected to continue to support the expansion of U. ExxonMobil expects energy consumption in this sector will rise slightly through 2025 as industry responds to lower natural gas prices. the energy required for a constant level of industrial production will fall by about half over the Outlook period. One of the biggest improvements in efficiency can be seen in the energy industry subsector (including U. Industrial demand by sector Quadrillion BTUs 30 Industrial production Indexed to 2000 = 100 200 175 25 Energy industry 20 150 125 Chemicals 15 100 75 10 Heavy industry 5 50 25 Other 0 2000 2020 2040 0 2010 2025 2040 Data as of 11/16/2012 Other OtherIndustry Chem Tot EIUSE Data as of 12/13/2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 7 XOM Energy Outlook US Ed. where energy usage is expected to fall by more than 25 percent. By 2015.S.S.S.S.Industrial activity to expand. industrial activity increases. 2012 . Over the coming decades.-based industrial activity. The industrial sector – which includes heavy industries such as steel and machinery as well as agriculture. In fact. Demand for energy for the heavy industry and chemicals subsectors is projected to rise in the range of 5 to 10 percent over the Outlook period as economic opportunities exist to expand output.

S. Advanced vehicles are expected to account for more than 50 percent of the fleet – and about 80 percent of U. However. light duty vehicles is expected to rise to about 45 mpg by 2040. The United States will remain the largest consumer of energy for transportation. light duty fleet. planes. particularly for certain trucks and other heavy duty vehicles that can more readily recoup the higher up-front costs.4 mpg. ExxonMobil continues to expect very limited use of natural gas in light duty vehicles due to competing technologies. which in 2010 had an EPA-rated average of 28. fuel-economy standards. newcar sales – by 2040. ExxonMobil sees natural gas accounting for about 7 percent of U.S. While actual on-road mileage typically is lower.S. auto companies to raise the average EPA-rated fuel efficiency of the light duty vehicles they sell in the United States to 34. demand for fuel for commercial vehicles – trucks. having broader appeal to consumers. even as the number of these vehicles on U.S.com/energyoutlook XOM Energy Outloo XOM Energy Outlook US Ed. U. achieving these standards will have a dramatic impact on fuel consumption. as a recovering economy spurs increased movement of people and goods. such as hybrids. These new rules will require significant changes in the U. compared with less than 1 percent today. heavy duty vehicle demand by 2040. or about twice the 22 mpg level in 2010. transportation sector is expected to peak shortly after 2015 and decline by 10 percent over the Outlook period.S. Transportation demand by sector Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day 15 Transportation demand by fuel Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day 15 Light duty vehicle fleet by type Millions of vehicles 300 Natural gas/LPG Rail Marine Fuel oil Natural gas Other 250 Electric/Plug-in hybrid Hybrid Aviation 10 10 Jet fuel 200 Heavy duty Biodiesel Diesel 150 Conventional diesel 5 5 100 Ethanol Light duty Gasoline Conventional gasoline 50 0 2000 2020 2040 0 2000 2020 2040 0 2000 2020 2040 8 exxonmobil.S.S. ships and trains – will rise by nearly 35 percent. Nationwide demand for fuel for light duty vehicles will fall by one-third over the Outlook period. As a result. roads rises by approximately 65 million.5 mpg by 2025. the average on-road fuel economy of new U. On the other hand. 2012 For: GCG Scott Turner/ Brian Wil .5 miles per gallon by 2016 and 54.New fuel-economy standards to curb transportation demand Overall energy demand in the U. Federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards call for U. compared to about 25 percent in 2010.S. but by 2040 its share of global transportation demand will have fallen to about 15 percent. Conventional vehicles also will need to become smaller and more fuel-efficient to meet the new Another change on the horizon is the potential use of natural gas as a transportation fuel.

it would take 11 years to break even. the cost of hybrid vehicles (like the Toyota Prius) will be about $2. Consumers also must consider other factors. such as driving range. with gasoline at $4 a gallon.Vehicle efficiency: Costs influence consumer choices When consumers set out to buy a new vehicle. and the economics of buying and operating a vehicle change.000 higher and a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (like the Chevrolet Volt) will be about $5. Because it is relatively inexpensive to improve the efficiency of today’s vehicles. Whether they drive conventional or advanced vehicles. ExxonMobil expects that. Ultimately. consumers would not recoup that higher purchase cost within five years unless gasoline prices were more than $7 a gallon.  Smaller vehicles.  Technologies that make conventional vehicles more efficient. Through 2040. performance and convenience afforded by various vehicles. Buyers consider not only purchase cost. vehicle technology develops. The economics of consumer decisions will change as vehicle technology develops and as the prices of fuels rise and fall. the CO 2 emissions of electric vehicles vary significantly based on the fuel source used to generate their electricity. consumers can improve fuel economy – by up to 35 percent – by switching to smaller. lighter vehicles. while a standard electric vehicle (like Nissan’s Leaf) will be about $7. Because gasoline and diesel are “energy dense. Consumer decisions will naturally evolve over time as their particular needs change. consumers generally will choose vehicles that meet that goal at the lowest cost to them.000 higher than that of a similar-sized conventional vehicle. higher-speed automatic transmissions. on average. ExxonMobil sees most consumers gravitating to three options based on key decision criteria including functionality requirements of the vehicle for the users. Of all advanced-vehicle technologies. cost and functionality are top concerns. hybrids will offer by far the best value for consumers. improved aerodynamics and reduced weight can improve fuel economy and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 30 percent. the choices made by consumers will determine how the global vehicle fleet and related energy demand evolve in the coming decades. In the case of the standard electric vehicle. Additionally. the cost of various options.” they contain more energy per fill-up than ethanol.000 higher. but also the cost of fuel for the vehicle over its lifetime. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 9 . ExxonMobil expects automakers will make increased use of these technologies as they seek to meet government fuel-efficiency mandates. Technologies such as turbocharging. this is the only option in which consumers’ fuel savings over the first five years of ownership equal or exceed their added costs. By 2030. So while making cars and other light duty vehicles more efficient – and reducing vehicle emissions – is a shared global goal. compressed natural gas (CNG) or electric vehicle batteries. this enhances consumer convenience by reducing the need for refueling stops.  Advanced vehicles. and the relative safety.

New gas-fired generating units are efficient. 2012 . demand for fuel to generate electricity will remain largely unchanged. While U.com/energyoutlook XOM Energy Outlook US Ed. electricity generation for several reasons. to build at a reasonable cost. fuel demand today. Electricity generation fuel consumption Quadrillion BTUs 50 Average U. the shift away from older. will account for only about 15 percent in 2040.S. and supported by abundant U. converting and storing wind and solar energy. However. these sources will require subsidies. which produced about 45 percent of America’s electricity in 2010. By 2040. flexible to operate. wind and solar face challenges related to economics and reliability considerations (see page 11). Coal. Over the next few decades. Also. As in many other countries. which serve as a proxy for a wide variety of potential policies that might be adopted to stem greenhouse gas emissions. Use of wind and solar also will grow substantially.Power generation shifts to natural gas.S. gas supplies. electricity demand is expected to rise by about 30 percent through 2040. compared to about 50 percent in 2010.S. the use of less-carbon-intensive fuels (natural gas. coal-fired plants to more efficient natural gas facilities will also save the United States a substantial amount of energy. natural gas is expected to be the fuel of choice for U. rising to about $80 in 2040. easy In addition to curbing emissions. because of this improved efficiency. nuclear and wind The generation of electricity is the single biggest source of U. considering the costs of capturing. nuclear and renewable fuels. accounting for about 40 percent of consumption. nuclear and renewables) will grow substantially.S. about 85 percent of America’s electricity will likely come from natural gas. mandates or a higher cost of CO2 to be competitive. 10 exxonmobil. cost of electricity generation in 2030 Cost per kilowatt hour in 2012 cents 14 Reliability cost* At $60 per ton of CO2 Reliability cost* Other Renewables Biomass 40 10 Wind and Solar 12 30 8 Nuclear 6 20 No CO2 cost Coal 4 10 2 Gas Oil 0 0 Coal Gas Nuclear Onshore Wind* Solar PV* 2000 2020 2040 * Wind and solar exclude costs for backup capacity and additional transmission. which emits up to 60 percent less CO2 than coal when used for electricity generation. The biggest growth for power generation will be in natural gas. The Outlook has implied CO2 costs in the United States and other OECD countries reaching about $60 per ton in 2030.S. while coal declines. This forecast reflects assumptions about the implied cost of CO2 in the United States.

the turbine cannot generate electricity. but will only account for about 2 percent of global electricity supply in 2040. The key obstacle is the intermittent nature of these natural resources: The sun doesn’t shine 24 hours a day and the wind doesn’t blow continuously. Gas plants are quick to start up and adjust to demand. it can be located in populated areas. when the sun has already set. people have been working to overcome the challenges associated with harnessing the wind and sun to generate energy. making solar electricity generation intermittent. in many regions of the world. And unlike coal. are quicker and less costly to build. and have a smaller environmental footprint. That’s why. Because gas generation produces minimal sulfur or particulates emissions. The need to have additional generation to ensure a reliable electricity supply increases their cost relative to alternatives like gas and nuclear. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 11 . However. The intermittency and variability of wind and solar generation limit their practical ability to meet electricity demand when required. hydropower is limited in supply and coal power generation emits the highest amount of CO2 and is slow to start up.Electricity 201: The challenges of harnessing wind and solar energy Wind and solar energy comprise an important and growing part of the global energy mix and have an important role to play in meeting energy needs. That makes natural gas the generation fuel of choice to complement wind and solar. or photons. such as hydro. photovoltaic solar panels capture light energy. This makes wind electricity generation variable and intermittent. for decades. The availability of wind and sun at certain times of the day also factors into their use as reliable sources of energy. In other regions. peak power demand occurs during winter evenings. even though by 2040 wind-powered energy grows by seven times. peak electricity demand occurs in the afternoon when air conditioning load is highest. onsite fuel storage is not required. studies indicate that it is not uncommon for wind turbines to operate at only 5 to 15 percent of capacity during peak electricity demand. In fact. Gas emits up to 60 percent less CO2 than coal when used for electricity generation. Various weather conditions can substantially impact the effectiveness of solar. coal or natural gas. solar power generation is expected to increase by more than 20 times. If wind speed is too low or too high. However. must remain on standby to ensure reliability of the power system. Wind power generation depends on how fast wind is blowing. Solar power is best during mid-day. Because solar and wind cannot be relied on to always generate power when electricity is needed. To generate electricity from the sun. Likewise. However. it will only account for about 7 percent of global electricity supply. other more flexible types of generation. for example when the air is humid or is of poor quality or when the skies are cloudy.

com/energyoutlook . Through 2040. electricity generators shift away from coal. oil will remain the country’s most popular fuel. energy demand and reduce the need for imports.Energy supply The United States continues to enjoy access to an abundance of energy sources.S. 12 exxonmobil. Expanding North American production of oil and natural gas – the result of technologies that have enabled the development of energy from shale rock and other sources – will help meet U. but oil demand is expected to fall as American vehicles become more fuel-efficient.S. Natural gas usage will rise sharply as U.

S. % 65 OTHER The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 13 . energy demand in 2040.Oil and gas will continue to supply about 65 percent of U.

Unconventional resources also include coal bed methane and tight gas. which previously were considered too costly to produce.S. and power industries. transitions to a net natural gas exporter by about 2020. U. heat homes and buildings. North America will continue to have significant gas resources in the ground – an estimated 100 years’ supply at current consumption rates. In recent years.U. Shale and other unconventional supplies from North America will play an increasingly important role in meeting global demand for natural gas. the creation of millions of new jobs. close to 80 percent of North America gas supplies will be produced from local unconventional resources. consumption of natural gas is projected to rise by more than 25 percent through 2040. when it will satisfy nearly one-third of America’s energy needs. U. Unconventional gas production also is expected to expand overseas. 300 3 200 Rest of world conventional 2 Cumulative production 100 1 0 North America conventional 2010 2025 2040 0 2040 14 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook XOM Energy Outlook US Ed. Global natural gas supply Billions of cubic feet per day 600 North America natural gas resource Thousand trillion cubic feet 6 500 Rest of world unconventional North America unconventional 5 400 4 Remaining resource 80% By 2040.S.S. and expected to rise by more than 45 percent over the Outlook period. shale boom will help meet growing demand for natural gas North America has abundant resources of natural gas – a fuel used to generate electricity. domestic supplies have been greatly expanded by advances in technology that have enabled the United States to tap the vast quantities of natural gas located in shale rock. including providing an abundance of reliable and affordable energy for consumers and businesses. economy. which by 2040 will account for nearly one-third of global gas supply. Spurred by demand for less-carbon-intensive fuels. a number that has the potential to expand as technology advances. as the shale technologies developed in the United States are applied in other countries. which by 2025 will have overtaken coal as the world’s second-most-consumed fuel. billions of dollars in taxes and other revenues. It also will provide significant new economic opportunities for North America as it About 60 percent of the growth in global gas demand will be met by unconventional sources. Even with the projected increase in its natural gas production through 2040.S. natural gas production is at its all-time high. 2012 . This expansion in domestic gas production continues to have positive effects on the U.

The biggest contribution will come from Canada’s oil sands. U. 2012 For: GCG The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Scott Turner/ Brian 817-332-4600 C&CWilburn Other Biofuels Canada 1/1/00 10472 3910 71 608 File name: 15A 2012 XOMEO US-USLiqSupply. output of oil and other liquid fuels in North America is projected to rise by about 40 percent from 2010 to 2040.S. biofuels (oil produced from corn and other agricultural products) and natural gas liquids (NGLs) – liquids associated with natural gas. After decades of relatively flat production. transportation relies on gasoline. reaching about 4. and to the transportation that moves people and goods. advances in technology are transforming oil production in the United States. Another major contributor will be a projected doubling in production from deepwater sources. U. U.Rising oil production will reduce the need for imports Oil and other liquid fuels are critical to economic growth. Gulf of Mexico. mostly in the U. Large gains also are expected in production of tight oil (oil extracted from shale in states like North Dakota).S.S. reaching about 12 million barrels per day of oil equivalent.ai Data as of 11/18/2012 15 .S. including shale gas. liquids demand is expected to decline by about 15 percent through 2040.5 million barrels a day by 2040.S. jet fuel and other products refined from crude oil. production of oil and other liquid fuels is projected to rise by 35 percent from 2010 to 2040. which will more than offset continued strong gains in demand for fuel for heavy duty trucks and other forms of commercial transportation. produced economically. where production is expected to triple over the Outlook period. This will be largely the result of steep improvements in fuel efficiency for cars and other personal vehicles. but ExxonMobil projects that by about 2030 North America will transition to become a net exporter of liquid fuels. liquids supply and demand by type Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day 30 North America liquids supply and demand by type Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day 30 Liquids demand 25 25 Liquids demand 20 20 3 9 Net imports Canadian oil sands Biofuels 15 6 11 Net imports 4 15 Other petroleum 10 10 5 5 Crude and condensate 0 2000 2020 2040 0 2000 2020 2040 Data as of 11/18/2012 1/1/00 C&C 5868 Other 2715 Biofuels 71 XOM Energy Outlook US Ed. as declines in conventional crude oil are more than offset by rising production of resources that until recently could not be Not only will these trends reduce the need for oil imports into North America. More than 95 percent of U. diesel. At the same time. Mexico and Canada.

com/energyoutlook .S pecia l S ection 16 exxonmobil.

as its rising oil and natural gas production will enable the region to transition from a net energy importer to a net exporter. Meeting global oil demand today requires about one-half of the world’s supplies to be traded internationally.Global trade Energy imports and exports have been an important part of international trade for more than a century. North America will play a new role in the global energy marketplace. But one fact will not change: Whether imports or exports. expanding trade opportunities for any product – including energy – helps economies grow and increases the prosperity of people in the United States and around the world. % 50 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 17 . Over the next few decades.

Energy trade helps fuel economic growth From ancient caravans to the e-commerce of today. The net result is that ExxonMobil expects that North America – which in 2010 imported 15 percent of its total energy and 35 percent of its oil – is likely to transition to a net energy exporter by about 2025. At the same time. Trading – exchanging something you have for something others have that you need or would prefer – benefits both buyers and sellers. cars. and facilitates global economic growth. North America’s demand for energy is expected to be essentially unchanged from 2010. because of advances in energy efficiency and other trends. One-half of the oil used every day around the world – and one-quarter of the natural gas – is traded internationally. North America will have the opportunity to export about 15 percent of its natural gas production and about 5 percent of its oil production.S.com/energyoutlook XOM Energy Outlook US Ed. will open more opportunities for global trade. as evidenced by what’s happening today in North America. Energy imports and exports are part of that picture. and deepwater. Regional imports 94 94 89 Country imports In-country supplies In-country supplies 2010 2025 2040 North America 2010 2025 2040 United States 18 exxonmobil. 2012 . computer products and steel. Europe and Asia Pacific are likely to continue to call on international markets to meet a substantial portion of their energy requirements. North America will have the opportunity to export about 15 percent of its natural gas and 5 percent of its oil production. Asia Pacific nations will be importing close to 40 percent of their total energy demand. and the energy required to fuel it. Expanding trade opportunities for U. In contrast. ExxonMobil expects that by 2040. ExxonMobil expects that by 2040. North America region. and they are fundamentally the same as the thousands of other products traded globally on a daily basis – including grain. North America to become a net energy exporter Regional energy balances Quadrillion BTUs 120 121 113 Regional exports 15% By 2040. The economic growth in that But the global energy market is dynamic. people have long engaged in trade to meet their needs. products – including energy – creates economic value and strengthens the global supply chain upon which all consumers depend. prosperity and constructive relationships between nations. oil sands. for example – that previously were uneconomic to produce. is capitalizing on advances in technology that have tapped huge energy resources – shale oil and gas.

2011 supply and net imports of crude oil and products Canada 13% Saudi Arabia 6% Venezuela 5% Nigeria 4% U. the United States is a net exporter of refined oil products. Today. diesel fuel and other products.U. U.S. Canada’s oil production is projected to double from 2010 to 2040. crude oil and product imports is Canada. 2012 For: GCG The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 19 . natural gas production will provide enough supply to not only meet domestic demand.S.S. in large part because of production from the vast oil sands resources in western Canada. oil production – will not only reduce the need for imports into North America. The trading relationship between the United States and Canada continues to benefit both economies. The value of free trade – whether imports or exports – is a fundamental principle of modern economics. supply 55% U. energy security. support not just domestic needs for gasoline. this diversity strengthens U. LNG exports will. benefits from access to global oil market Even as North America approaches a time when it produces As the world’s largest oil consumer and its third-largest oil producer.S. as refineries along the Gulf Coast and elsewhere more energy than it consumes. which is transported on the water via tankers. the United States will continue to play an important role in global oil trading. The United States is emerging as an exporter of LNG into world markets. energy choices and helps avoid the impact of supply disruptions. households. but also additional supplies for export. enables natural gas to be shipped anywhere in the world – not just to places reached by underground pipeline. but also make these products available to export elsewhere.S. As a study commissioned by the Department of Energy recently concluded. LNG. The U. under any scenario.S.S. the region will continue to benefit from access to the global energy market.S.S.S. as projected growth in shale and other U. U. Rising Canadian production – coupled with growth in U. economy and the real income of U.S. economic growth and competitiveness in the global marketplace. shale gas growth will provide expanding economic opportunities through LNG exports For example. rising demand for natural gas in Asia Pacific and elsewhere will require the expansion of the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG).S. also imports crude and products from a host of countries around the world. Virgin Islands 1% Ecuador 1% United Kingdom 1% Norway 1% XOM Energy Outlook US Ed.S. net imports 45% Mexico 3% Russia 3% Iraq 2% Colombia 2% Algeria 2% Angola 2% Kuwait 1% U. have a positive effect on the U. but also present an opportunity for both countries to further strengthen their relationship and create jobs and economic value.S. The single biggest source of net U. and is critical to U.

3% 0.3% 3.2% -0. Six billion cubic feet per day of natural gas is equivalent to about 1 million oil-equivalent barrels per day.3% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 5% -6% -1% 34% 35% 35% Memo: Electricity Demand 9 12 13 16 17 1.3% 0.1% 4% -1% 3% 40% 41% 44% 4.2% 0. Three hundred terawatt hours is equivalent to about 1 quadrillion BTUs (Quad).com/energyoutlook Rounding of data in the Outlook may result in slight differences between totals and the sum of individual components.6% 0.9% 19% 11% 31% 19% 22% 26% Electricity Generation Fuel 29 37 38 39 39 0.3% -3% -7% -10% 39% 37% 36% Industrial 24 27 24 25 24 0. Billion Tons WORLD Primary 360 416 522 654 705 1.1% 17% -16% -2% 26% 24% 19% Nuclear 21 27 29 41 59 2.3% -0.1% 5% -2% 2% 100% 100% 100% Residential/Commercial 18 22 23 24 24 0.9 5.1% 50% 24% 87% 15% 19% 22% Electricity Generation Fuel 118 144 192 258 292 2.6% -4.6% -4. Billion Tons Glossary ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy contains global projections through 2040.3% 0.) based on energy content relative to a typical barrel of oil.3 1.4% 2.7 5.4% 34% 13% 52% 37% 39% 41% 21.1% 1.5% 0.0 5.4% 13% 0% 14% 9% 8% 8% Hydro 7 9 12 16 19 2.000.2% 6% 0% 6% 38% 39% 41% 5.2% 118% 59% 247% 2% 4% 7% End-Use Demand (including electricity) Total End-Use 73 86 86 90 88 0. (Kilowatt (KW) = 1. (Quad refers to quadrillion BTUs.2% -0.0% 0.5% 2.5% 0. for one year.7% -0.6% -0. This is used to measure volumes of natural gas.3% 0.5% 1.2% -0.8% -6% -16% -21% CO 2 Emissions.1% 1.0% 24% 8% 34% 100% 100% 100% Residential/Commercial 87 98 116 138 148 1. British thermal unit.2% 1.6 6.1% 4. BTU.5% -0.2% -0.1% 0.1% 1% -5% -3% 100% 100% 100% Residential/Commercial 15 18 19 20 20 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% -0.1% 0% -3% -3% 37% 36% 35% Industrial 30 34 31 34 33 0.000 watts.0% 26% 6% 34% 24% 29% 32% Coal 20 23 21 14 7 -2.8% 19% 7% 28% 29% 28% 27% Transportation 65 81 99 124 141 1.2% 5% 0% 5% 26% 26% 27% Transportation 25 31 32 32 31 0.0% 0.000 BTUs per day to run the average North American household.3% -0.2% 1.) Watt.3% 1. etc.6 30. equal to one joule per second. coal.1% 0.2% 118% 57% 242% 2% 4% 7% End-Use Demand (including electricity) Total End-Use 61 72 70 71 68 0.2% 0.3% 0. This term provides a standardized unit of measure for different types of energy sources (oil.2% 9% -3% 5% 36% 38% 38% Memo: Electricity Demand 11 15 16 19 21 1. In the Outlook.0% -1.6 6.0% -0.5% -0.3% 1.0% 0.2% -0.2% 0% -5% -6% 100% 100% 100% Oil 35 40 38 35 31 -0. 12 Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBDOE).7% 1.4% -1.1 -0.3% 0. gas.2% 34% 5% 41% 1% 1% 1% Other Renewables 1 1 2 4 7 5.5% 2.8% 152% 63% 311% 1% 3% 4% End-Use Demand (including electricity) Total End-Use 290 327 404 501 540 1. 20 exxonmobil. Terawatt (TW) = 10 watts).1% 3% 0% 3% 27% 28% 29% Transportation 22 27 27 26 25 -0.1% 1.Data table and glossary Regions Energy Demand (Quadrillion BTUs unless otherwise indicated) 1990 2000 2010 2025 2040 Average Annual Change 2010- 2025- 2010- 2025 2040 2040 % Change 2010- 2025- 2010- Share of Total 2025 2040 2040 2010 2025 2040 UNITED STATES Primary 81 96 94 94 89 0.0% 3% -4% -1% 100% 100% 100% Oil 42 49 47 45 40 -0.S. Billion Tons NORTH AMERICA Primary 95 114 113 116 112 0. we refer to standard units for the measurement of energy: Billions of cubic feet per day (BCFD).1% 0.0% 0.0% 25% 8% 35% 100% 100% 100% Oil 137 158 178 208 223 1.0% 21% 11% 34% 18% 21% 24% Electricity Generation Fuel 33 42 43 46 46 0.3% 4.1% -10% -19% -27% CO2 Emissions. A BTU is a standard unit of energy that can be used to measure any type of energy source.5% 0.7% -3.0 -0.3% 20% 21% 45% 9% 10% 13% Biomass/Waste 3 4 3 4 3 0.0% 0.2% 25% 14% 43% 24% 25% 26% Industrial 138 149 189 240 250 1.4% 0.9% 27% 4% 32% 47% 48% 46% Memo: Electricity Demand 35 45 63 94 117 2.7% -33% -52% -67% 21% 14% 7% Nuclear 6 8 9 10 13 1.4% 42% 45% 106% 5% 6% 8% Biomass/Waste 36 41 49 55 55 0.7% -3. One million oil-equivalent barrels per day is enough energy to fuel about 5 percent of the vehicles on the world’s roads today.7% -7% -13% -19% 40% 38% 35% Gas 17 22 22 27 28 1.0% 0.4% -1.3% 1. A 1-gigawatt power plant can meet the electricity demand of more than 500.4% 3.7% 0.8% 17% 7% 26% 34% 32% 32% Gas 72 89 115 160 189 2.0% 0.1% 7% -4% 3% 3% 3% 3% Hydro 2 2 2 3 3 1.4% 1. It takes approximately 400.0% 4. .8% 0.7% -1.2% -0. One billion cubic feet per day of natural gas can heat approximately 5 million homes in the U.3% -0.6% 20% -1% 19% CO2 Emissions.3% 0. Gigawatt (GW) = 1.5 5. A unit of electrical power.2% -0.5 36.5% 1.7% 40% 18% 66% 2% 2% 3% Other Renewables 1 3 7 18 29 6.S.5% -0.3% 9% 0% 9% 3% 3% 3% Hydro 1 1 1 1 1 2.9% 1.8% 21% 5% 27% 23% 28% 32% Coal 18 22 20 13 6 -2.000 watts.7% 39% 18% 65% 22% 24% 27% Coal 86 90 134 156 131 1.6% 0.000.4 6.000 homes in the U.3 23.2% 0.5% -4% -10% -14% 42% 39% 36% Gas 21 26 27 34 36 1.5% 0.8% 21% 4% 27% 2% 2% 3% Other Renewables 1 1 2 5 8 5.9% -0.6% -32% -51% -67% 19% 12% 6% Nuclear 7 9 10 12 14 1.5% 0.6% 0.7 36.0 4.0% -0.3% 17% 25% 46% 9% 11% 14% Biomass/Waste 2 3 3 3 3 0.7% 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 1.1% -0.4% -0.

Actual future conditions and results (including economic conditions.The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand. supply. political events. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This report includes forward looking statements. demographic changes. . the development of new supply source. energy demand.com.exxonmobil. energy supply. and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www. economic sectors and geographic regions) could differ materially due to changes in technology. All rights reserved. the relative mix of energy across sources.

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