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Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs
Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

Housing, House Prices, and the Equity Premium Puzzle

Morris A. Davis and Robert F. Martin
2005-13

NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)
are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The
analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate
concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors.
References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other than
acknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character
of these papers.
  
   
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õ n ö ñ~E70OB5B^:4‹Z)1Aß ‹91A(.HC'hH.1AP©ÕKRO0O*@HK8o‹an9p9pAq>‹÷ ñ~=4(.35?.PC;7B*,=9(ñ~=9PP*vBPC02(aB32¤!g)0O=K-O8,1433*,-21A87ƒ.=9?7(.H.1NB*,=9(>3YZ=9/b¥h19S7*XB

ƒ.=9/P1AB*,=9(‹ ’ Ý<=9/|W*X(76r1A;T0O/D_

õ Ú ö ñ~=4(.3^B 1A(aB*,(7*@HK0232‹$u02=9/690#€ws,‹ n9p9p4n7‹[*Zh1NB*,=9(>1A8Š'h3350OBrf/*,-O0232‹ ’w` E70ø4=9?./(.198 =AYuƒ*,(.1A(>- 09‹$e=98osÔ؍"K‹~gh=._q.‹

 ØE_"„  ØE(  _

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õ q ö òu1LW*,32‹Ô€V=4//*,32‹Ô19(.H=ø4=9(.1ABE.19(ù¥h021NBE.- =9B04‹$nAp4pAq>‹>` E70Vrf/*@- 0G19(.H  ?.1A(aB*XB^:w=AY,ZŠ023*@HK0O(aB*@1A8Šc 1A(.Hk*X(kBE.0

Éh(7*vB02HVÕaB 1NB0D3O‹ ’CÝb=4/|W*,(76zr1A;T0O/D_

õ Ø ö òu1LW*,32‹T€!=9//*@3O‹’1A(>Hø9=4(.1NBE.1A(3¥)021ABE.-O=AB09‹nAp4p4ØK‹ú*¥h=9?.3*X(.6G1A(>H#BE70‘\$?.3*X(70D33Uñ~:K- 8,09‹ ’zYZ=4/5BE.- =4PC*,(76>‹ ¾ (aB0O/„

(.1AB*,=9(.198 + -O=9(7=4PC*@-ûZŠ0OLW*,0OiU_

õ  ö òl*X02i~02/5BD‹ + /iŠ*,(‹WnAp9p4Ú7‹
` E70h` /021NBP0O(aBÔ=AYyliŠ(.0O/ yu-2- ?7;.*X0DH¥)=4?.35*,(76¸19(.H{yhBE.0O/~òl?7/ 1AS78,023~*,({1&ñ~=9(>35?7P02/

rÔ/*@- 0 ¾ (.HK0OJ’‹ ’òh*@3- ?.335*,=9(Vr19;>02/ Éh(7*,L90O/ 3*vB^:z=9YÜ\$/*vB*,3EVñ~=48X?.P¸S7*@1g)=.s>p9ÚN„‰p¨&._

õ " ö ƒ.0O/(.1A(.H70OR „…eh*,8,8,1L40O/ HK09‹Oø90D35?.3C1A(>Hwòh*,/|w†ˆ/?70O640O/D‹Žn9p9p  ‹û ñ~=9(>35?7P;KB*X=4(M1A(>HMÕK1LW*X(.6V=NL90O/¸BE70c*XYZ0#ñ~:K- 8,09¤

¥h=Ni ¾ P;>=4/5B 1A(aB)1A/0¸ñ~=9(.3?7P0O/Šòl?7/19S78,023 üu’bÝ<=9/|a*,(76zr1A;T0O/D_

õ & ö ƒ./1AB1A(aB=9(7*o‹ €V*@- E.190O8 ñls,‹fnAp4p  ‹Ò*¥h=9P0O=NiŠ(702/3E7*,;‹Žñ~=4PPC*XB5B02H + JK;>02(.HK*XB?7/0¹ZŠ*@35|’‹Ž1A(.H<BE70ÕWB=K- |WE7=98@HK*,(76

rÔ?7ROR28X04‹ ’zyhJWYZ=9/ H + - =9(.=9P*,-ur1A;T0O/ 3ŠØAÚ.‹.nNq  „‰n4ØE(._

õ ( ö u=4/HK=4(‹Z)=9ST0O/Bºø>sa19(.H` =WH.HzLN1A(>u=W0 BE70OP#‹7nAp4pAq>‹C'Ûñ~0O(aB?7/:=AYdòl=NiŠ(Wi$19/H‘\$*,143f*,(zBE.0u€V=a3^B ¾ PC;T=9/B19(aB

ñ~=4PC;T=9(.0O(aBŠ=AYBE70&ñ$r ¾ ¤7` E70¸ñ$1930u=9YÜZ)0O(aB198dÕWE70O8XB02/2‹  (  qA„^nAp4p9Ú7‹ ’ˆÝ<=9/|a*,(76r1A;T0O/D_

õ  p ö u/0O02(ai$=W=KH½‹ø902/02P¸:9‹ZŠ*@- E.19/H[Z)=96902/3=9(d‹D19(.HZ)19(.H7198X8WÝ</*,69EaB2‹  (¨(aØK‹j*¥)=4?.30OE7=48,H\rÔ/=KHK?>-B*,=9(¸*X(qZŠ021988\$?.3*X„

(70D33 ñ~:K- 8,0l` E702=9/:8’ˆ*,(Gƒ./=4(aB*,0O/ 3=AYý\$?.3*X(.0233 ñ~:K- 8,0KZŠ0D350D1A/ - E` E7=9Pz143ø>sKñ~=W=98,0O:C02HsarÔ/*,(.- 0OB=4(É)(7*,L902/3*vB^:

rÔ/0D332‹Kg)0Oiþø40O/ 3502:9_

õ 9Jö u/?7ST0O/D‹
ø4=430O;7E<Ý sd1A(>HNZ)=9ST0O/B¸ƒ~s€!1A/B*,(‹ŽnAp9p9q.‹6` E70ZŠ=98,0z=AY òh?./19S78X0{u=W=KH73U*,(<BE70Gòh*@3^B/*,S7?KB*X=4(]=AY

Ý<02198vBE¤fòh=W0D36¥)=9?>35*,(76Ýb0D1A8XBEV€!19|90UÉh3)cd0233 + Fa?.198“ü’!Ý<=9/|W*X(.6r19;>02/2_

õ  n ö u/?7ST0O/D‹jø4=430O;7E#Ý s’1A(.H ZŠ=9ST0O/Blƒ$sT€}1A/B*,(‹’n9p9p4Ú7‹brf/02-O19?KB*,=9(>1A/:GÕK1LW*X(.643)19(.H#BE.0¸Ý<021A8XBEbòh*@3^B/*,S7?KB*X=4(

iŠ*XBE ¾ 8,8X*@Fa?7*,H#òl?7/ 1AS78,0232‹ ’ ¾ (aB02/(.1AB*,=9(.198ƒ*X(.19(.- 0Uòl*,3- ?>33*X=4(r19;>02/2‹7gh=.s|""NÚ7_

õ  Ú ö u:4=9?7/|9=>‹ø4=430O;.E‹A1A(.Hqø4=430O;7EC`d/ 19-O:9‹7jtn9p9p9qam‹÷Éh3*X(.6û¥h=9P0Š€!1A*,(aB0O(>1A(.-O0$19(.H]Z)0O;.19*X/ 3 B=\ÕWP=W=ABECef1A/*@1AS78,0

+ 1A/(7*X(.6432‹ ’¸Ýb=4/|W*,(76zr1A;T0O/D_

 q
õ  q ö ¥l1A8,8t‹½')8@1935B19*X/,ZUs,‹½1A(.Hb'$B3?.35E.* ¾ (7=4?709‹n9p9p9Ú.‹ú` E70&c 1A/690&Õ71AP;78,0q\$0OE>1La*,=9?./)=AYfBE70zu0O(702/198X*,RO0DH!€V0 BE7=KH

=9Y€V=4PC02(aB3 + 35B*,Pz1NB=9/Š*,(#€!*,335;T02-O*vQ>02H€V=KHK0O8@3O‹ ’‘ø9=4?7/(.1A8½=9Y + -O=9(7=4P0 B/*@-O32‹ae=48ts 9 q>‹KÚ¨  „…ڍ(Aq>_

õ  Ø ö cd?.3^B*X6>‹¥h1A(.(7=lg¸sX‹A19(.H\ÕaB* ß^(zCs2ef19(¸g)*,0O?Wi$0O/S7?7/69E‹NnAp4pAq.‹j'k` E70O=4/:u=AY¥h=9?.3*,(76uñ~=98,8@1NB02/198t‹Añ~=9(>35?7P;KB*X=4(

¾ (.3?7/ 1A(.-O09‹K1A(>HZ)*,3|{rf/0OP*@17‹ ’¸Ý<=9/|W*X(.6r19;>02/2_

õ   ö cd?.3^B*X6>‹_¥l1A(7(.=&g\s,‹K1A(.HÕaB* ß^(CsWef19({g)*,0O?Wi$0O/S7?7/69E‹WnAp9p9q.‹
*¥)=4?.3*X(76zñ~=98,8,1AB02/198t‹Kñ~=9(.3?7P;KB*,=9( ¾ (.35?./19(.- 04‹

19(.H@Z)*,3|GrÔ/02PC*@17¤Ž')( + PC;.*X/*,-21A8rŽ02/3;>0D-B*XL409‹ ’¸ƒ7=4/5BE.- =4P*X(76ø4=9?7/(.198T=9YŽƒ*,(.1A(>- 09_

õ  " ö €!19/5B*X(d‹EZŠ=9ST0O/Bƒ$s,‹4nAp4p9Ú7‹j ñ~=4(.3?7P;KB*,=9(‹Aòl?7/ 1AS78,0$u=W=KH732‹A1A(.H&`d/ 1A(>314-B*,=9(&ñ~=a3^B 3O‹ ’ ¾ (aB0O/(.1AB*,=9(.1984ƒ*X(>1A(.-O0

òl*,3- ?>33*X=4(r19;>02/2‹Kgh=.sj"9ØE7_

õ  & ö €!-Du/1AB5B0O(‹ + 8X8,0O(d‹ýZŠ*@- E.1A/ H ZŠ=46902/3=9(‹½19(.H3Zh1A(.H7198X8Ý</*X64E4BD‹  ((_"W‹6')( + Fa?7*,8X*,S7/*X?.P¢€V=KHK0O8=9Yº\$?.3*X(.0233

ñ~:K- 8,0ˆiŠ*vBEA¥)=9?>3502E7=98@HGrÔ/=KHK?>-B*,=9(#1A(>HGƒ*@3-21A8rŽ=98,*@- :9‹ ’ ¾ (4B0O/(.1NB*X=4(.1A8 + - =4(7=9P*@-ÒZŠ02LW*X02i×Ú¨&.‹.nE8"D„^nE(9p._

õ  ( ö gh0Oi$0O:9‹W݇E7*XB(.0O:G†sK19(.HG†ˆ02(7(70OBEGò&_7Ý<0235B2‹  (¨&_"K‹
' ÕW*XP;78,09‹7rŽ=a35*XB*,L90ˆÕW0OP*X„…òl0 Q>(7*vB09‹¥h0 B0O/=43|902H.1935B*@- *XB^:

19(.HG'h?KB=K-O=9//028,1AB*,=9(#ñ~=4(.3*,35B02(4Blñ~=NLN1A/*@1A(.-O0u€!1AB/*vJ½‹ ’ + - =4(7=9P0 B/*@-O1.‹We=98os>Ø9Ø7‹Wgh=._.Ú.‹|"Np4ÚN„:"Np¨&._

õ nAp ö yl6a1A|W*t‹Ž€!14319=}1A(.H+ñ$1A/PC02(I€ws%ZŠ0O*,(7E.19/5BD‹  ((¨&7‹û€!02193?7/*X(.6 ¾ (4B0O/B02PC;T=9/ 1A8 ÕW?7S.35B*XB?7B*,=9(¤{` E.0@ZŠ=48X0G=AY

òl?7/ 1AS78,0\u=a=KH732‹ ’qø4=9?./(.198’=AYrŽ=98,*vB*,-21A8 + -O=9(7=4P¸:  p7‹  p8"&A„  p¨(¨&._

õ n Jö  „sƒ dsacm€ˆC`bacd…egfMhmiFkaEc ×%ÿ h„Jcmk‰i#egƒ*„…dsl¸ „JiUa¨aEˆÚa!£E†  €!h„Jƒ d s { s €i#kacm€ˆ Jcj~ af„K€Ecj  ƒ*auEe~Ji
K~ ~ aegc|idsl

ɸs Ւs>òh02;.1A/BP0O(aBŠ=AYÔñ~=9PP0O/ - 04‹U\$?7/0D1A?G=AY + - =4(7=9P*@-l'h(.1A8,:K35*@32‹  (¨(4p7_

õ n9n ö rÔ*,19RORO0D35*o‹2€!=9(7*,|N17‹€!1A/B*,(\ÕK- E7(702*,HK02/2‹D1A(.H\ÕK0O8@1A8,0f`d?7R20O8o‹n9p9p4Ú7‹!¥)=4?.35*,(76>‹ñ~=9(>35?7P;KB*X=4(‹1A(.Hˆ'h330 B rÔ/*@- *,(76.‹ ’

Ý<=9/|W*X(76r1A;T0O/D_

õ nAÚ ö ZŠ?.;>02/5BD‹drŽ0 B0O/D‹ýZŠ*@- E.1A/ H ZŠ=46902/3=9(‹½19(.H3Zh1A(.H7198X8Ý</*X64E4BD‹  ((4Ø7‹º + 35B*,Pz1NB*,(76VÕW?7S.35B*XB?7B*,=9( + 8@1935B*@- *XB*,023ˆ*,(

¥h=9?.30OE7=48,Hrf/=KHK?.- B*,=9(G€!=WH70O8@3O‹ ’ + - =9(.=9P*,-u` E702=9/:¹7‹  "(N„  (4Ú7_

õ nNq ö Ý<0235B2‹.†ˆ02(7(70OBE#ò¸_,‹Tn9p9p4n7‹
 + »- *,0O(aBhˆ€!€ + 35B*,Pz1NB*X=4(G=9Y Ý<021A|'KZÛrf/=K- 0D330232‹ ’ + -O=9(7=4PC*@-O3 cd0 B5B0O/ 3O‹Ke=48ts

"9ØK‹Wq  Ø„…q  &._

 Ø
Figure2: Minimum Alpha Consistent with Housing Moment

1

0.8

0.6

0.4
Alpha

0.2

0

-0.2

-0.4
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 40
Sigma

Beta=.950 Beta=.980 Beta=.990 Beta=.999
Figure 4: Feasible Parameter Set: Equities and Housing
1
Beta=.995 Beta=.999
Beta=.99
0.95

0.9

0.85

0.8
Alpha

0.75

Arrows point into
0.7 feasible set. Points
outside of set either
fail to satisfy equity
0.65 or house price
moment.

0.6

0.55
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sigma