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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

International Finance Discussion Papers

Number 605

March 1998

TRANSPARENCY AND CREDIBILITY:
MONETARY POLICY WITH UNOBSERVABLE GOALS

Jon Faust and Lars E.O. Svensson

NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated
to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References to International Finance
Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to
unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Recent IFDPs
are available on the Web at www.bog.frb.fed.us.
TRANSPARENCY AND CREDIBILITY:
MONETARY POLICY WITH UNOBSERVABLE GOALS

Jon Faust and Lars E.O. Svensson3

Abstract: We de ne and study transparency, credibility, and reputation in a model
in which the central bank's characteristics are unobservable to the private sector and
are inferred from the policy outcome. A low-credibility bank optimally conducts a
more in ationary policy than a high-credibility bank, in the sense that it induces
higher in ation, but a less expansionary policy in the sense that it induces lower
in ation and employment than expected. Increased transparency makes the bank's
reputation and credibility more sensitive to its actions, which has a moderating in-
uence on the bank's policy. Full transparency of the central bank's intentions is
generally socially bene cial, but frequently not in the interest of the bank. Some-
what paradoxically, direct observability of idiosyncratic central bank goals removes
the moderating incentive on the bank and leads to the worst equilibrium.

Keywords: credibility, transparency, monetary policy, dynamic game.

3 Faust: Division of International Finance, Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System (faustj@frb.gov); Svensson: Institute for International Economic
Studies, Stockholm University, CEPR and NBER (lars.svensson@iies.su.se). The
authors thank participants in seminars at the Board of Governors, the Institute for
International Economic Studies, Reserve Bank of Australia, University of Canter-
bury and Victoria University of Wellington, and especially David Bowman, Martin
Floden, Dale Henderson, Andy Levin, Jaime Marquez, Bennett McCallum, Stefan
Palmqvist, Torsten Persson and Michael Woodford, for helpful comments. They
also thank Christina Lonnblad for secretarial and editorial assistance. Part of the
paper was written when Lars Svensson visited the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
and Victoria University of Wellington; he thanks these institutions for their hospi-
tality. Remaining errors are the authors' own; the views in this paper are solely the
responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as re ecting the views
of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Reserve Bank of New
Zealand, or of others associated with those institutions.
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