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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

International Finance Discussion Papers

Number 618

August 1998


Simeon Djankov and Caroline L. Freund

NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate
discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers
(other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared
with the author or authors. Recent IFDPs are available on the Web at

Simeon Djankov and Caroline L. Freund*

Abstract: We study the effects of trade barriers and the persistence of past linkages on trade flows in the
former Soviet Union (FSU). Estimating gravity equations on 1987-1996 trade among and between nine
Russian regions and fourteen FSU republics, we find that Russian regions traded 60 percent more with each
other than with republics in the reform period (1994-96). In contrast, they did not trade significantly more
with each other than with republics in the pre-reform period (1987-90). Estimating a richer model, we find
that trade barriers are primarily responsible for the current domestic bias. However, the existing
infrastructure stock has significantly limited the recent reorientation in trade. Finally, we find evidence of
anticipatory adjustment during the transition to independence.

Keywords: infrastructure, trade, and adjustment costs

*World Bank and International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board, respectively. We are grateful
to Alan Deardorff, Simon Evenett, Oleh Havrylyshyn, John Helliwell, David Hummels, John Rogers,
Maurice Schiff and seminar participants at CEPII-Paris, the Federal Reserve Board, and the World Bank for
comments on earlier drafts. The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should
not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the World Bank, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System, or any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System. Correspondence:;
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0.5 1989

0.4 1996













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0.8 North
0.7 Northw est
0.6 Central
North Caucases
0.2 Volga

0.1 Volga-Vyatka
0 Ural








Far East

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0.9 Belarus
0.8 Estonia
0.7 Georgia
0.6 Kazakhstan
0.5 Kyrgistan
0.4 Latvia
0.3 Lithuania
0.2 Moldova
0.1 Tajikistan
0 Turkmenistan









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