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Real Estate Overview Residential real estate Commercial real estate Organised retail real estate Hospitality sector real estate 1 2 5 7 10
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resorts. cinema theatres) industries. it has traditionally tapped high net-worth individuals and other informal sources of financing. the real estate industry’s dynamics reflect consumers’ expectations of higher quality with India’s increasing integration with the global economy. hospitality and entertainment (hotels. instead. as the consequent increase in business opportunities and labour migration led to rising demand for commercial and housing space. The real estate industry’s growth is linked to developments in the retail.REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW The real estate sector in India assumed greater prominence with the liberalisation of the economy. economic services (hospitals. schools) and information technology (IT)enabled services (like call centres) etc and vice versa. the real estate and construction sectors are playing a crucial role in the overall development of India’s core infrastructure. Historically. At present. This scenario underwent a change with in line with the sector’s growth. which has led to low levels of transparency. The Indian real estate sector has traditionally been dominated by a number of small regional players with relatively low levels of expertise and/or financial resources. MARCH 2010 1 . CRISIL RESEARCH: INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW . the sector has not benefited from institutional capital. and as of today.
there was steady growth in Indian economic activity. Phase II (2006-2008): High growth phase with high demand and prices more than double 3. Phase IV (2011-2014): Consolidation phase. rising disposable incomes. noteworthy recovery in IT/ITES industry. At the same time. residential real estate industry can be divided into four growth phases. Demand rapidly increased due to India’s growing population. The retreat of various real estate investors. rapidly growing middle class and youth population. accentuated urbanisation. as can be seen in the chart below: Housing growth trajectory Phases 1. Broadly. Phase II (2006-2008) was a high growth phase where high demand for residential real estate led to doubling of housing prices. growing urbanisation and a rising trend towards nuclear families. has resulted in oversupply and falling prices. accompanied by slowdown in the capital markets. supply and prices gradually moving up in line with improvement in economic environment 2001 2005 Housing Offtake 2008 2010 Housing Prices 2014 Note: All years represent financial year (April-March). which led to a decline in affordability and tight liquidity. with demand. 2 CRISIL RESEARCH: INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW. MARCH 2010 . fiscal incentives on interest and principal payments for housing loans and heightened customer expectations. Source: CRISIL Research Phase I (2001-2005) was an initial growth phase with stabilising residential real estate prices following the global recovery post the “dot com” bust and 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York.RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE Residential real estate industry has witnessed stupendous growth in the past few years owing to the following reasons: • • • • • • Continuous growth in population Migration towards urban areas Ample job opportunities in service sectors Growing income levels Rise in nuclear families Easy availability of finance Demand for houses increased considerably whilst supply of houses could not keep pace with demand thereby leading to a steep rise in residential capital values especially in urban areas. Phase III (2009-2010) witnessed substantial slowdown and part recovery in demand because of the global economic downturn. For instance. low interest rates. Phase III (2009-2010): Substantial 2001-05 Initial growth phase slowdown in demand due to dented affordability and economic environment 4. Phase I (2001-2005): Initial growth phase with offtake and prices picking up 2006-08 High growth 2009-10 Declining demand 2010 onwards consolidation 2.2011 represents April 2010-March 2011.
started booking houses. Residential projects across cities saw several new mid-income housing projects being launched by developers to attract potential buyers.Phase IV (2011-2014) is expected to remain a consolidation phase after slowdown. The overall housing shortage in India is likely to decline to 75. According to CRISIL Research. Housing shortage in India 40 35 30 Million units 25 20 15.1 million units at the start of 2005.3 million units at the end of 2008. up from 15. on the other hand.7 million units by the end of 2014. The government’s continuous focus on improving the housing situation.5 million units by the end of Phase IV. End-users. However. housing shortage in India is estimated at 78. the segment is highly influenced by economic cycles. Two Million Housing Programme. especially for population below poverty line. who had put their purchasing plans on hold due to the fall in affordability levels and job-related uncertainties.8 million units by 2013-14 from 59. In spite of the stupendous growth witnessed in the past 10 years.5 34. between first half of 2008 and first half of 2009. under schemes like Indira Awaas Yojna.7 Urban Rural Source: CRISIL Research CRISIL Research expects housing shortage to decrease due to the government’s thrust on improving rural housing by providing houses to the homeless under various development schemes and by enabling slum redevelopment programmes in urban areas under Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM). Rural housing shortage is expected to decline to 53.7 26 21. MARCH 2010 3 . substantial housing shortage is still prevalent in India. Housing shortage in urban areas is likely to touch a walloping 21.7 19. However. Rural areas.1 26. Demand is expected to remain strong with capital values witnessing modest rise. Housing shortage in urban areas is estimated at 19.0 30.4 million units at the end of 2008. Recent industry trends Despite strong fundamentals backing the residential real estate. will witness a reduction in housing shortage due to migration and conversion of kutcha houses into pucca houses. Rajeev Gandhi Aawaas Yojna.3 20. CRISIL RESEARCH: INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW . the residential real estate market in India too witnessed an astounding fall in demand and capital values.7 million units at the end of Phase II. the sector experienced a pickup in demand during the second half of 2009 across major cities mainly attributed to improvement in economy. Demand for houses mounted as the global economy improved bringing back financial confidence to the home buyers along with low interest rates. is expected to reduce housing shortage in rural areas. Owing to global meltdown.4 19.1 15 10 5 0 2001 2005 2008 2010 2014 18. housing shortage in urban areas will continue to rise owing to migration towards urban areas and increasing trend of nuclear families. This period is expected to witness substantial supply of housing especially in urban areas.
Ahmedabad. Pune and Hyderabad). According to CRISIL Research. strong underlying demand would continue to aid an improvement in absorption levels in major cities.Improvement in demand also brought back the construction activity to back on track. Kolkata. Outlook Going forward. These top 10 cities account for around 15-20 per cent of overall supply in urban India. Average residential capital values which declined by 18-20 per cent in March 2009 from the highs witnessed during the first half of 2008. capital values are further expected to witness a modest increase backed by better job security owing to higher growth in the economy in 2010 and 2011. MARCH 2010 . remained more or less stable between March and November 2009 in most of the places. CRISIL Research expects around 668 million square feet of residential supply to be constructed between 2009-11 in top 10 cities (Mumbai. Chennai. 4 CRISIL RESEARCH: INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW. Bengaluru. Chandigarh. Mumbai led the recovery and witnessed an 11 per cent spurt in residential capital values between March-November 2009. NCR. Kochi. Absorption levels are also expected to remain strong during the economic recovery.
Previously commercial properties were concentrated towards CBD (Central Business District) areas in large cities. Subdued demand and rentals has impacted the execution adversely in addition to cancellation of many projects. Demand for office space is directly linked to addition in number of employees. Kolkata and Pune have established themselves as emerging destinations for commercial development.COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE The commercial office space in India has evolved significantly in the past 10 years due to change in business environment. However. MARCH 2010 5 . Lease rentals have corrected in the range of 25-50 per cent during the first half of 2008. most of the urban cities are faced with a humungous oversupply of office space. especially IT-ITeS. with the emergence of IT-ITeS. The strong demand from domestic IT/ITeS companies and captives of large global players was a result of increased business. Chandigarh and Kochi) during 2009-11. A healthy domestic economy coupled with aggressive corporate expansion plans led to strong demand from sectors such as Banking. Expected demand during the same period is 70 million square feet Supply in the top 10 cities account for approximately 70-75 per cent of total office space supply in the country. The growth of commercial real estate has been driven largely by service sectors. In addition. It resulted in multifold development of city outskirts and suburbs like Gurgaon near New Delhi. Hyderabad. CRISIL RESEARCH: INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW . The demand for commercial real estate was on an upswing between 2005 and early 2008. with an average increase of 108 per cent between 2005 and early 2008. CRISIL Research has estimated supply of office space at around 172 million square feet in 10 major cities (Mumbai. NCR. Gurgaon. Furthermore. over the last 10 years. Chennai. With demand slowing substantially. driven by exceptionally high employee additions in the IT/ITeS sector. When economy slows down. which in turn is dependent on economic growth. Pune. Kolkata. Bangaluru. according to CRISIL Research. which had huge office space requirement. demand for commercial real estate dropped sharply leading to sharp correction in lease rentals since the second half of 2008. which are competing with traditional business destinations such as Mumbai and Delhi. Hyderabad. Recent trends During the economic slowdown. Tax sops on the profits of IT-ITeS companies also led to stupendous development of IT Parks and SEZs. primarily from the US and European markets. limited supply of quality office space led to a sharp increase in lease rentals for commercial office space in most micro-markets. Bandra and Malad in Mumbai. Chennai. and the Electronic city in Bangaluru. locations such as Bengaluru. companies hold their expansion plans leading to lower demand for office space. commercial development started moving towards city suburbs. Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI) and media and entertainment. Ahmedabad.
MARCH 2010 .Average lease rentals across 10 cities (indexed to 2005) 300 250 Lease Rentals (Rs/sq ft/month) 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 H1 Q1 2009 Avg 2009 2010P Source: CRISIL Research Downturn in the commercial real estate market in India. which adversely impacted demand for office space. in 2010. IT/ITeS. 6 CRISIL RESEARCH: INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW. which had commenced during the second half of 2008. increased utilisation rates of existing commercial space by increasing the number of shifts. commercial office lease rentals are expected to decrease by an additional 3 per cent at most of the micro markets. The resultant drop in demand for commercial office space led to correction of lease rentals in the range of 25-50 per cent since the peaks touched during the first half of 2008. which had been a major demand driver for the sector in the last 2 years. in view of the considerable oversupply across cities and lack of adequate demand. According to CRISIL Research. continued during the second half of 2009. The sustained decline was largely the result of postponement of expansion plans by corporates.
0 trillion 7. which indicated a large amount of supply coming up in 2008.5 per cent Rs 1. which was mainly concentrated in Tier I cities until a few years back. A number of plans went back to the drawing boards to avoid coming on-stream in this weak market. In addition.5 trillion 2009-10 P Rs 19. Organised retail penetration has grown to about 5.9 trillion 5. A sector that was riding high on the economic boom until recently found itself grounded by the economic slump. India’s organised retail industry has posted high growth rates given improvement in key driving factors namely.3 per cent Note: ORP . the concentration of such developments rose given the supply of multiple malls in cities. The industry is expected to increase at a CAGR of 14 per cent in the short term and 19 per cent over the next 5 years. the retail real estate market recorded an increase in demand.7 trillion 2012-13 P Rs 27.5% ORP Organised retail ORP Rs 0. Retail market sizing 2007-08 E Total retail Rs 15.9% ORP Rs 2. which is further expected to increase to about 7. MARCH 2010 7 . lavish lifestyles. spread to Tier II and Tier III cities as well. This resulted in shrinking catchment areas and lower footfalls for the existing malls. high disposable incomes and a propensity to spend.6 per cent in 2009-10. Cashing in on the retail real estate market boom.ORGANISED RETAIL REAL ESTATE The retail industry in India has witnessed a slowdown in the past year after increasing at a CAGR of 28 per cent in the 2005-08 period. created an excess supply in the existent weak demand scenario. in turn. Going forward. India’s retail market was mainly unorganised until early 2000.Organised Retail Penetration Source: CRISIL Research Demand–supply situation Keeping in step with growth in the organised retail market.1 trillion 5. organised retailing is expected to grow with revival in economy and a strong growth outlook. the planned supply in the retail real estate market is much higher than the demand. however. developers in most cities announced new malls. The sudden downturn not only forced developers to postpone the launch of new projects but also delay those under construction. The supply of organised retail real estate. The total planned supply across 10 CRISIL RESEARCH: INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW .6 per cent 18. a resultant of the economic slowdown. In the past few years. This.3 per cent by 2012-13.9 trillion 13. The real estate sector was significantly hit with the downturn in late 2008.
better job prospects and higher disposable income given the sharp rise in equity markets. leading to relatively high vacancy levels. During the period. In spite of rentals reducing to realistic levels in malls. considering rentals in these areas have corrected notably following reduced demand. Concentration of malls in several areas of NCR gave rise to a skewed demand-supply scenario. the Indian retail real estate market retailers revaluated expansion plans and renegotiated with developers in an attempt to bring down lease rentals in malls. absorption is expected to be lower than the supply with the oversupply situation likely to continue in most of the cities. MARCH 2010 . CRISIL Research expects retailers to remain cautious about their expansion plans despite the industry showing signs of revival. Hence. lease rentals increased by 95 per cent (average across 10 major cities). Trends in lease rentals In the 4-year period. 2009 witnessed a sharp decline in lease rentals (average 45 per cent decline) given the economic slowdown. Going forward. Lease rentals declined at an average of 14 per cent in 2009 with the National Capital Region (NCR). This impacted the development of new retail malls and most of the developers delayed their construction plans. 8 CRISIL RESEARCH: INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW.major cities (constituting 75 per cent of the pan India market) for 2009-2011 is 115 mn square feet. we expect retail lease rentals to fall further in 2010 on an average by 6 per cent in view. Average lease rentals across 10 cities (Rs per sq ft) 250 50% 40% 200 30% 20% 150 10% 0% 100 -10% -20% 50 -30% -40% 0 2005 2006 2007 Lease rentals 2008 2009E Growth % 2010P -50% Source: CRISIL Research Lease rentals to skid further by 6 per cent in 2010 The retail industry has seen a marginal recovery in the recent past due to the economic revival. 2005 to 2008. CRISIL Research estimates the actual supply for 2009-2011 to be 50 mn square feet with the larger share of supply (about 27 per cent) expected to come up in Mumbai. Considering the large number of upcoming malls. Retailers are now eyeing prime high streets and mall spaces for expansion plans. Post the crash of late 2008. specifically Noida and Greater Noida. However. demand for retail space was higher than the supply. leading to an increase in lease rentals on account of increase in footfalls and penetration of organised retail. after 4 consecutive years of rising lease rentals. Absorption to be lower than supply The organised retail industry is expected to increase at 14 per cent CAGR over the short term whereas the total retail space available is expected to increase at a CAGR of 36 per cent from the current 60 mn square feet to 110 mn square feet by 2011. retailers are tweaking the size of stores to ensure viability. witnessed the sharpest fall in retail lease rentals at 31 per cent.
Expected change in retail lease rentals during Dec '09 to 2010 City Ahmedabad Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) NCR Hyderabad Bengaluru Kolkata Chennai Pune Chandigarh Average Source: CRISIL Research Change 0% 0% 0% -3% -4% -6% -6% -14% -25% -6% CRISIL RESEARCH: INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW . MARCH 2010 9 .
Rising incomes.018 34.951 33.130 9% 112.823 8% 12% 10% 31. registering an impressive CAGR of 15 per cent.000 20.979 5% 2008-09 32.506 10.719 77.854 98.000 140.783 2. The hotel industry faced a fall in room demand in the wake of the global financial crisis and the 26/11 terror attacks in Mumbai.646 49.000 120.492 30.241 24.982 6% 10 CRISIL RESEARCH: INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW.HOSPITALITY SECTOR REAL ESTATE India’s hospitality industry has enjoyed robust growth over the past few years buoyed by a benign economic and political environment.783 19% 101.747 100.698 132. supply grew at a much lower rate of 6 per cent CAGR leading to increase in average room rates (ARRs) and occupancy rate (OR).321 7.119 2.719 28.728 61.238 -4% -6% 2008-09 12% 38% 32% 45% 37% 34% 30% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -5% 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 56. As a result ARRs and ORs fell considerably.351 37.567 31.209 8.746 2. in 2008-09.783 2.357 116. Increase in domestic.818 7% 2007-08 31.258 29.13 billion in 2003-04 to Rs 179. which attracts a lot of foreign clientele.290 40.885 7.001 10.000 58. During the same period.368 109. MARCH 2010 2007-08 .440 186.611 37.974 2.712 105.730 49.044 -5% 2005-06 2006-07 5-D/5-star mkt size y-o-y (5-D/5-star) Total mkt size y-o-y (Total mkt size) Source: CRISIL Research Number of hotel rooms by category Category Premium segment Mid-market segment Budget hotels Heritage hotels Others (unregistered etc) Total rooms Growth (y-o-y) 2001-02 2002-03 24.000 60. higher weekend trips and increased access to travel-related information over the Internet have propelled growth in hospitality.070 7% 2005-06 29.440 97. However.515 3% 2004-05 27.816 95. the market size of the hotel sector has more than doubled from Rs 77.586 64.000 0 29.722 -2% 2003-04 26.107 2.706 24% 28% 26% 105.408 35.800 167.2 billion in 2008-09.423 2.861 2. Premium segment hotels are more prominent in major business destinations in India and are dominant in popular tourist destinations like Goa. the market size decreased by around 4 per cent due to decline in revenues.000 80.000 160.200 122.788 10. Hotels – market size (Rs billion) 200.297 30. having a significant negative impact on hotel revenues. business and leisure travel has benefited hotels in India.703 45.097 32.694 179.121 76. This was accompanied by large additions in supply across all major destinations.094 9.000 180.971 7.000 27.supply gap assessment Higher growth in demand than supply led to higher ARRs and ORs Due to the robust demand growth.457 28.284 43.720 129. Demand.392 4% 2006-07 31.678 28.334 29.543 102.689 40.
000 ARRs decline OR (per cent) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun OR: Feb 07 Jan 08 OR: Feb 09 .000 12. Overall room demand across destinations has recovered to pre-crisis levels. there was a 10 per cent y-o-y increase in room supply.000 10.000 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Room demand: Feb 07 . Goa.Jan 08 RevPAR Feb 09 .Jan 10 RevPAR: Feb 08 . CRISIL RESEARCH: INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW . Demand is expected to increase at a CAGR of 15 per cent while room availability is expected to record a CAGR of 9 per cent across premium segment. Supply additions hamper hotel revenues despite a revival in room demand Buoyed by improving macroeconomic conditions and international tourist arrivals.000 8. closely followed by Bengaluru.000 4.000 8. between 2009-10 and 2013-14.000 6.Jan 09 ARR: Feb 07 Jan 08 ARR: Feb 09 .000 16. However.Jan 09 RevPAR: Feb 07 . revenue per available room (RevPARs) fell by 30 per cent y-o-y in 2009-10. Chennai.000 6. as a result ARRs declined by 22 per cent y-o-y. Due to lower occupancy levels and considerable cuts in room rates across destinations.000 2. Hyderabad.E: Estimate Source: CRISIL Research. Business destinations are poised to see higher growth in room inventory compared to leisure destinations Gurgaon. Ahmedabad.000 10. will see the maximum room additions. followed by Ahmedabad. Gurgaon.000 18.Jan 10 2.Jan 09 Room demand: Feb 08 . Bengaluru. Agra and Kerala. Pune.000 8. respectively.Jan 10 ARR (Rs per day) 16. the premium segment hotels have witnessed a revival growing at 8 per cent y-o-y during the period October-December 2009. Ahmedabad and Pune to witness the highest growth in room inventory The premium segment room inventory is expected to increase at a CAGR of 9 per cent from 2008-09 to 2013-14 across Mumbai (North and South).000 4.000 12.Jan 10 ARR: Feb 08 . demand is anticipated to outstrip supply growth. thereby increasing competition amongst players. Kolkata. North Mumbai.000 - Source: CRISIL Research Source: CRISIL Research Outlook Supply growth to be higher than demand growth Going forward. MARCH 2010 11 . tops the growth in room inventory with a CAGR of 31 per cent and 27 per cent.000 RevPAR (Rs per day) 14.000 6.000 12.000 14. Jaipur.Jan 09 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan OR: Feb 08 . NCR.000 14. ORs stood at 57 per cent for the current year compared to 64 per cent in 2008-09.000 2.000 10.Jan 08 Room demand: Feb 09 . In absolute terms. Room demand shows a recovery Room demand (rooms per day) 20. FHRAI Please note that the sections below refer to the premium segment hotels that constitute about 60 per cent of the hotel industry revenue.000 4.
000 2010-11P 2011-12P 2012-13P 2009-10E 2013-14P 1999-00 2004-05 2005-06 2000-01 2006-07 2001-02 2007-08 2002-03 2003-04 2008-09 ARR.000 1.601 1.000 3.000 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2009-10E 2010-11P 2011-12P Room availability Room demand Occupancy rate (%) ARR RevPAR Occupancy rate (%) Source: CRISIL Research Source: CRISIL Research 12 CRISIL RESEARCH: INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW.829 1.613 1.000 4.000 10.Supply growth in key destinations (nos/day) 6.393 2.900 as a result pushing up RevPARs to Rs 5.249 1. Room Demand and OR 50.812 8.000 Pune Chennai Ahmedabad Hyderabad Gurgaon Bengaluru Kerala 536 2.188 7.380 8.000 2.000 10.998 1.400 in 2013-14 from Rs 4.558 2. hotels are expected to see higher ORs between 59 per cent and 65 per cent over the next 5 years compared to 57 per cent in 2009-10.799 1.649 1.142 Supply growth in descreasing order 4.221 2.000 45.045 .000 12. Room availability.832 6.000 2.000 Supply growth in descreasing order 7.000 25.000 35.000 3.954 1.000 930 578 282 1.000 8.500 in 2009-10.000 6.000 4.489 1.000 4.000 20.447 1.255 2013-14P Goa - Delhi Kolkata Agra N Mumbai 2008-09 2009-10P 2010-11P 2011-12P 2012-13 P 2013-14 P 2008-09 2009-10P S Mumbai 2010-11P 2011-12P 2012-13 P Jaipur 2013-14 P Source: CRISIL Research With demand growth exceeding addition of supply.300 in 2013-14 from the current levels of Rs 7.000 2.000 40.411 9.890 (nos/day) 10.000 6.000 15.000 5.000 5.210 3.000 5.000 4. Average ARRs are expected to shoot up to Rs 8. MARCH 2010 2012-13P 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 4.000 3.000 30. RevPAR and OR 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2.982 3.
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