Syrian Uprising and its Economic Impact

Horrifying reports are received from Syria where the so-called Arab Spring has come with deadly rain and storm. The Syrian uprising began nearly a year ago, and despite renewed international efforts, the regime has intensified the killing. The death toll--approaching 8,000--is now five times what it was in Libya on the eve of the NATO intervention there. These are "crimes against humanity," a U.N. panel concluded recently. Syrias political situation has inevitably affected its economy. The market is far from encouraging for workers and the economic situation is instable. As Syrian officials sonorous statements continue, depicting the regime and its leader as the tender father who solves many problems, the issue has arisen of frozen capital that is unable to address basic needs. According to some economists, some eight per cent of the banks reservoir even left Syria in the last three months. The current political regime seems to be clueless as to what to do. It finds itself obliged to deal with the consequences of the economic coup led by the previous government of Prime Minister Nazi al-Otari over the last seven years. The current government and the Baath regime cannot simply go back to the economy the way it was before it became what the Otris government described as Syrias Social Economy. All this comes with an increase in poverty which now affects 35 per cent of the population, and an increase of unemployment amongst Syrian youth which now runs at more than 30 per cent, according to data from the evaluation of the tenth five-year plan. The first-step solution, as suggested by the new government through its various ministries, is providing 100,000 jobs and increasing the salaries for public sector employees. But this conflicts with the issue of liquidity, as raised by the central bank. Moreover, it also conflicts with the lack of real work for those newly hired by those ministries which have opened their doors to job applicants. All of this marks the failure of Syrias new Prime Minister, Adel Safar, in solving the problem of hidden unemployment, which previous governments tried to root out. Safars government is face-to-face with another problem: the devaluation of the Syrian lira during the last two months to more than 17 per cent of its value versus US dollars, despite the central banks efforts during past years to stabilize it in accordance with the currency basket it adopted. This actually resulted in making inflation the way to increase value, despite official denial. These days we find tens of pro-regime marches on one hand, and hundreds of antiregime demonstrations on the other, which have led to the crippling of Syrias economy. There is a notable decrease in the figures for imports and exports in the last six months, accompanied by the meager number of tourists coming to the country and the security restrictions they face.

All of this has put the Syrian economy in a murky situation, also greatly damaged by the political and security efforts by the regime against what it considers vandals and gunmen. The regime will not be toppled by the daily popular demonstrations alone. The consensus is that the economy will play a major role and help to topple it if the crisis continues for one or two more months. In the meantime, the ordinary Syrian citizens remains waiting for his bread and the day when he can live free of the political and economic conflicts that are currently crushing him at the time being.