You are on page 1of 6

www.td.

com/economics

TD Economics
Weekly Commodity Price Report
March 30, 2009

HIGHLIGHTS
• The TDCI in U.S. dollars rose 3.3% last week, driven • Reports indicating a jump in Chinese imports triggered
largely by gains in energy prices. Precious and base a surge copper and zinc prices early in the week. And
metals prices also offered support, while agricultural despite some renewed recession concerns weighing
and forest product prices provided some offset. In on these markets as the week progressed, both metals
Canadian dollar terms, the index was up by a more ended the week up, with a 4.2% rise in copper prices
modest 1.2%. outshining the 3.4% increase in zinc prices.
• Crude oil prices shot up 7% last week, hitting a 4- • Precious metals prices also gained last week, as the
month high of US$54 per barrel on Thursday. The U.S. dollar slumped against the euro, boosting demand
rally came on the back of increased optimism of a for bullion an alternative investment. Silver outper-
global recovery and some bullish data suggesting that formed its yellow counterpart, with prices rising 4.5%
fuel consumption rose during the week prior. How- on the week, as investors sought a cheaper alternative
ever, crude oil fundamentals do not support a price to gold.
in the mid-$50’s, and this morning, prices have fallen • Wheat prices slid 3.1% last week, as forecasts for rain
back below US$51 per barrel as renewed economic in the dry U.S. Plains and signs of weaker demand
concerns filtered into the market. put downward pressure on the market. Wheat prices,
• Natural gas prices also found support from economic although down nearly 50% from year-ago levels, are
optimism, advancing by 2.5%. However, this increase still above historical averages.
masks the downtrend seen throughout the week as a
bearish U.S storage report and a gloomy economic
outlook dominated the markets. Dina Cover 416-982-2555

SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, MARCH 27th


LATEST WK PRIOR WK % CHG. 1-WK % CHG. 4-WKS % CHG. 52-WKS 52-WK HIGH 52-WK-LOW
TDCI US$ Index (1997=100) 167.3 157.5 3.3 6.6 -47.8 405.5 154.0
US$ Sub-Indices
Forest Products 86.4 86.5 -0.2 -3.6 -11.9 109.0 86.4
Energy 203.0 193.0 5.2 10.6 -52.9 602.7 177.3
Non-Prec. Metals & Minerals 137.4 136.1 1.0 5.5 -55.5 308.0 130.3
Precious Metals 281.4 278.7 1.0 -3.3 -3.8 303.5 219.1
Agricultural Products 135.1 136.8 -1.3 2.5 -36.7 211.7 131.8
Biggest Movers this Week (per cent)
Ĺ Crude Oil 53.09 49.46 7.3 27.0 -49.1 142.5 32.4
Ĺ Silver 13.59 13.00 4.5 -1.0 -23.7 18.8 9.5
Ĺ Copper 179.89 172.60 4.2 19.6 -52.6 398.1 128.9
Ĺ Barley 135.50 130.29 4.0 8.2 -37.6 255.9 121.9
Ĺ Zinc 57.19 55.30 3.4 15.7 -45.3 105.1 48.2
Ļ Hogs 60.89 62.47 -2.5 4.4 6.5 86.4 54.7
Ļ Nickel 4.37 4.49 -2.5 -0.6 -67.8 13.2 4.2
Ļ Wheat 304.72 314.53 -3.1 0.2 -47.5 571.3 301.1

Weekly Commodity Price Report  March 30, 2009


www.td.com/economics

TD COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (TDCI) TDCI - ENERGY


Index, 1997=100 Index, 1997=100
430 700

380 600
Overall TDCI
330
500
280
400
230
300
180
TDCI Ex. Energy
200
130

80 100
Apr-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Apr-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09

Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: TD Economics. Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: GlobalCoal, WSJ / Haver Analytics.

TDCI- NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS TDCI - PRECIOUS METALS


Index, 1997=100 Index, 1997=100
350 350

300 300

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100
Apr-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Apr-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09

Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: FT / Haver Analytics, Ux Weekly. Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: WSJ / Haver Analytics.

TDCI - FOREST PRODUCTS TDCI - AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS


Index, 1997=100 Index, 1997=100
110 300
280

105 260
240

100 220
200

95 180
160

90 140
120

85 100
Apr-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Apr-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09

Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: Random Lengths, Pulp & Paper Weekly. Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: WCE, WSJ / Haver Analytics.

Weekly Commodity Price Report  March 30, 2009


www.td.com/economics

TD COMMODITY PRICE INDICES (TDCI)


US$ SUB-INDICES C$ SUB-INDICES
TDCI- TDCI-
US$ NON- C$ NON-
TDCI- INDEX FOREST PREC- PREC AGRI. TDCI- INDEX FOREST PREC- PREC AGRI.
US$ ex- PROD- IOUS METALS PROD- C$ ex- PROD- IOUS METALS PROD-
1997=100 INDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS INDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS C$/ US$
ANNUAL AVG
2003 140.8 92.9 83.8 184.4 108.6 98.2 99.2 197.6 130.4 117.6 258.7 152.4 137.7 139.2 1.40
2004 168.6 114.2 100.4 218.0 125.1 135.1 105.2 219.3 148.5 130.6 283.6 162.8 175.8 136.8 1.30
2005 222.9 123.2 102.1 313.4 136.2 158.3 105.6 270.0 149.3 123.6 379.6 164.9 191.8 127.9 1.21
2006 227.3 158.9 101.8 289.4 188.4 255.6 110.6 257.7 180.2 115.5 328.2 213.7 289.9 125.5 1.13
2007 252.1 189.9 98.0 308.6 217.3 337.8 141.2 270.0 204.2 105.3 329.7 232.4 364.1 150.4 1.07
2008 274.0 166.9 99.7 371.3 269.1 228.3 174.4 293.8 180.7 109.3 396.5 294.9 244.2 188.7 1.10
YTD 2009 164.5 129.3 90.0 196.6 271.8 137.8 137.8 204.5 160.8 112.0 244.2 338.2 171.2 171.3 1.24

WEEKLY AVG
07-Nov-08 217.3 137.5 100.8 289.9 222.6 162.4 140.7 254.7 161.1 118.1 339.8 260.9 190.4 165.0 1.17
14-Nov-08 209.0 135.6 100.5 275.6 219.1 157.4 141.6 254.6 165.2 122.5 335.8 266.9 191.7 172.5 1.22
21-Nov-08 200.6 134.1 100.8 261.0 222.8 153.5 136.5 250.8 167.7 126.0 326.4 278.6 191.9 170.7 1.25
28-Nov-08 201.1 136.0 99.9 260.3 243.0 154.2 137.5 247.4 167.3 122.9 320.2 299.0 189.7 169.1 1.23
05-Dec-08 188.1 130.7 99.1 240.2 228.2 145.1 133.3 236.6 164.4 124.6 302.1 286.9 182.5 167.6 1.26
12-Dec-08 178.4 129.3 97.0 223.1 237.5 140.2 134.0 222.6 161.3 121.0 278.2 296.2 174.9 167.2 1.25
19-Dec-08 172.6 129.8 95.5 211.5 251.7 137.0 139.6 210.2 158.1 116.3 257.5 306.4 166.8 170.0 1.22
26-Dec-08 162.2 130.8 95.1 190.6 256.0 138.0 142.5 197.3 159.2 115.7 232.0 311.5 168.0 173.4 1.22
02-Jan-09 176.8 132.0 94.4 217.5 260.3 141.3 142.9 215.3 160.7 114.9 264.9 317.0 172.1 174.0 1.22
09-Jan-09 182.6 134.7 93.7 226.1 253.6 151.7 146.1 217.0 160.1 111.3 268.6 301.3 180.2 173.6 1.19
16-Jan-09 166.6 129.6 92.6 200.2 245.7 141.6 140.7 206.1 160.3 114.6 247.7 304.0 175.2 174.0 1.24
23-Jan-09 166.3 129.5 91.7 199.7 255.4 139.5 140.7 209.6 163.2 115.6 251.7 322.0 175.9 177.3 1.26
30-Jan-09 166.2 130.1 91.2 199.0 270.2 137.8 140.8 203.3 159.1 111.5 243.4 330.4 168.5 172.2 1.22
06-Feb-09 164.9 130.6 89.7 196.0 273.6 140.6 140.3 203.5 161.1 110.7 241.9 337.6 173.6 173.2 1.23
13-Feb-09 159.3 130.3 89.9 185.7 278.5 138.6 138.7 197.1 161.2 111.3 229.7 344.5 171.5 171.5 1.24
20-Feb-09 154.0 128.3 89.8 177.3 292.5 131.6 132.0 193.6 161.3 112.9 222.9 367.7 165.4 166.0 1.26
27-Feb-09 157.0 127.7 89.6 183.6 291.0 130.3 131.8 196.8 160.1 112.3 230.2 364.9 163.4 165.2 1.25
06-Mar-09 158.7 126.2 87.8 188.3 277.0 131.9 132.6 204.2 162.3 113.0 242.2 356.5 169.7 170.6 1.29
13-Mar-09 157.5 126.1 87.4 185.9 275.3 132.5 133.5 202.4 162.1 112.3 239.0 353.9 170.2 171.6 1.29
20-Mar-09 161.9 127.7 86.5 193.0 278.7 136.1 136.8 203.6 160.6 108.8 242.6 350.3 171.1 172.0 1.26
27-Mar-09 167.3 128.1 86.4 203.0 281.4 137.4 135.1 206.0 157.6 106.3 249.9 346.3 169.2 166.3 1.23

Latest week, % chg. from


Week ago 3.3 0.3 -0.2 5.2 1.0 1.0 -1.3 1.2 -1.8 -2.3 3.0 -1.1 -1.1 -3.3 -2.1
4 weeks ago 6.6 0.3 -3.6 10.6 -3.3 5.5 2.5 4.6 -1.5 -5.3 8.5 -5.1 3.5 0.6 -1.8
52 weeks ago -47.8 -35.7 -11.9 -52.9 -3.8 -55.5 -36.7 -36.9 -22.2 6.5 -43.0 16.4 -46.1 -23.5 21.0
% Chg. YTD -46.0 -34.3 -8.0 -51.2 -5.5 -53.9 -37.6 -33.1 -18.6 14.0 -39.6 17.2 -42.9 -22.6 23.9
52-week low 154.0 126.1 86.4 177.3 219.1 130.3 131.8 193.6 157.6 95.9 222.9 248.7 163.4 162.4 0.98
52-week high 405.5 198.8 109.0 602.7 303.5 308.0 211.7 413.0 208.2 126.7 613.9 367.7 325.7 260.6 1.29
FORECAST
Annual 2009 166.4 125.3 94.2 203.7 232.5 138.6 122.2 206.7 155.7 117.1 253.0 288.8 172.2 151.8 1.24
Annual 2010 219.7 141.5 100.8 290.6 224.8 177.0 136.4 249.5 160.8 114.5 330.1 255.5 201.0 154.9 1.14
Dec 2009 183.8 130.6 95.1 232.1 240.7 150.7 125.0 202.2 143.7 104.6 255.3 264.8 165.8 137.5 1.10
Dec 2010 237.3 148.1 105.1 318.3 211.8 192.6 143.1 265.7 165.8 117.8 356.5 237.2 215.7 160.3 1.12

Weekly Commodity Price Report  March 30, 2009


www.td.com/economics

COMMODITY PRICES*: AVERAGE LEVELS (1)


FOREST PRODUCTS ENERGY PRECIOUS METALS
LUMBER PULP NEWSPRINT OIL NAT GAS COAL GOLD SILVER
ANNUAL AVG
2003 309.09 554.62 504.81 31.16 5.51 28.13 365.38 4.95
2004 405.08 642.12 552.02 41.69 5.88 55.19 409.41 6.71
2005 387.35 646.27 611.86 56.85 8.92 48.91 445.46 7.36
2006 327.02 721.83 666.83 66.12 6.74 50.29 604.03 11.58
2007 283.79 821.12 593.58 72.74 6.98 65.69 699.01 13.44
2008 253.33 863.98 700.77 100.15 8.88 128.96 872.53 15.05
YTD 2009 198.31 693.97 733.46 42.79 4.64 73.77 905.92 12.55

WEEKLY AVG
07-Nov-08 220.00 831.87 775.00 64.31 6.74 104.02 742.85 10.19
14-Nov-08 221.00 824.41 775.00 58.64 6.65 104.00 734.50 9.61
21-Nov-08 224.00 823.18 775.00 52.34 6.68 85.69 749.30 9.49
28-Nov-08 226.00 799.55 775.00 52.50 6.66 78.19 817.10 10.38
05-Dec-08 225.00 793.64 765.00 45.50 6.44 76.09 769.30 9.49
12-Dec-08 221.00 758.90 765.00 44.71 5.69 78.25 798.30 10.17
19-Dec-08 213.00 743.75 765.00 39.65 5.67 77.81 845.05 10.87
26-Dec-08 210.00 742.21 765.00 32.37 5.42 80.56 859.94 11.01
02-Jan-09 209.00 740.01 755.00 42.50 5.66 79.19 874.83 11.15
09-Jan-09 207.00 728.77 755.00 44.51 5.85 81.44 850.65 11.06
16-Jan-09 203.00 715.50 755.00 36.91 5.40 81.46 823.75 10.77
23-Jan-09 197.00 709.84 755.00 42.18 4.80 88.19 854.25 11.45
30-Jan-09 193.00 707.25 755.00 42.52 4.75 83.15 902.95 12.21
06-Feb-09 191.00 701.11 735.00 40.50 4.84 78.17 912.15 12.62
13-Feb-09 199.00 688.09 735.00 36.91 4.71 80.28 924.30 13.34
20-Feb-09 200.00 682.27 735.00 36.99 4.32 76.34 968.80 14.25
27-Feb-09 199.00 680.37 735.00 41.81 4.16 65.32 967.40 13.74
06-Mar-09 197.00 679.34 705.00 43.26 4.24 61.70 921.70 13.00
13-Mar-09 198.00 667.67 705.00 45.68 3.88 62.10 915.60 12.97
20-Mar-09 193.00 661.14 705.00 49.46 3.83 60.30 927.75 13.00
27-Mar-09 192.00 660.23 705.00 53.09 3.92 61.39 932.85 13.59

Latest week, % chg. from


Week ago -0.5 -0.1 0.0 7.3 2.5 1.8 0.5 4.5
4 weeks ago -3.5 -3.0 -4.1 27.0 -5.7 -6.0 -3.6 -1.0
52 weeks ago -19.3 -25.0 10.2 -49.1 -57.7 -48.6 -0.6 -23.7
% Chg. YTD -19.6 -20.9 18.3 -56.2 -46.0 -36.7 -1.9 -28.5
52-week low 191.00 660.23 660.00 32.37 3.83 60.30 734.50 9.48
52-week high 285.00 890.30 775.00 142.46 13.19 194.79 971.35 18.83
FORECAST
Annual Avg 2009 195.75 657.50 666.25 41.75 4.16 65.00 928.75 12.93
Annual Avg 2010 238.75 675.00 620.00 48.00 4.75 74.25 856.25 12.64
Dec 2009 200.00 640.00 600.00 40.00 4.20 65.00 935.00 13.00
Dec 2010 280.00 700.00 650.00 55.00 5.15 80.00 800.00 12.50

*MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; WEIGHT


C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). ( per cent )
FOREST PRODUCTS 21.1
Lumber: Random Lengths' Framing Lumber Composite ($/1000 Bd Ft) 9.5
Pulp: NBSK, delivered in east U.S. ($/mt) 5.7
Newsprint: New York ($/mt) 5.9
ENERGY 52.4
Oil: Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate, Cushing ($/Barrel) 23.6
Natural Gas: Henry Hub, LA ($/mmbtu) 27.2
Coal: Austr. Therm ($/mt) 1.6
PRECIOUS METALS 4.5
Silver: Cash price: Silver, Troy Oz, Handy & Harman Base Price ($/Troy oz) 0.5
Gold: Cash Price: London Gold Bullion, PM Fix ($/Troy oz) 4.0
Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, Overall TDCI weights based on
GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics. Canadian exports 2003-05

Weekly Commodity Price Report  March 30, 2009


www.td.com/economics

COMMODITY PRICES**: AVERAGE LEVELS (2)


NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
ALUM COPPER NICKEL ZINC URANIUM WHEAT BARLEY CANOLA CATTLE HOGS
ANNUAL AVG
2003 65.16 81.53 4.47 37.81 11.71 177.34 104.35 272.34 82.87 55.72
2004 78.13 130.92 6.25 47.74 18.80 186.84 98.89 282.81 81.45 53.26
2005 86.22 167.60 6.69 62.90 29.06 197.76 91.41 238.41 87.24 68.41
2006 116.49 305.10 11.01 148.56 47.77 216.58 108.71 268.54 86.19 64.19
2007 119.49 322.97 16.82 146.82 98.72 302.78 175.70 396.64 93.95 65.53
2008 117.00 316.94 9.61 85.33 63.76 455.65 202.26 530.68 93.81 66.13
YTD 2009 61.93 153.48 4.75 52.89 47.33 323.34 131.58 359.31 83.86 60.14

WEEKLY AVG
7-Nov-08 89.79 180.59 5.27 50.46 46.00 318.45 161.42 370.84 93.53 54.74
14-Nov-08 86.14 168.71 4.98 51.05 48.00 329.71 153.81 354.67 91.99 55.50
21-Nov-08 81.48 159.26 4.60 52.31 53.00 318.90 143.80 344.70 86.79 55.67
28-Nov-08 78.63 165.72 4.56 55.23 55.00 321.46 142.34 343.10 86.71 57.99
5-Dec-08 71.74 153.85 4.24 51.93 55.00 316.95 127.71 309.23 84.47 58.14
12-Dec-08 66.96 142.00 4.40 48.90 54.00 319.99 127.01 319.83 83.19 58.12
19-Dec-08 64.99 134.31 4.41 48.17 53.00 332.63 136.66 334.59 85.00 62.50
26-Dec-08 67.71 128.93 4.41 50.81 53.00 341.82 140.85 344.95 86.33 61.08
2-Jan-09 66.34 131.84 4.89 51.44 53.00 344.04 139.60 351.23 86.13 59.73
9-Jan-09 69.81 147.63 5.55 56.73 53.00 347.34 144.44 375.80 86.47 63.59
16-Jan-09 65.73 146.38 4.74 55.47 51.00 334.71 133.03 363.14 83.59 60.96
23-Jan-09 60.57 145.25 4.98 52.57 51.00 336.73 133.12 362.15 83.30 59.79
30-Jan-09 59.51 146.38 5.11 50.31 48.00 341.01 136.24 365.24 81.93 57.20
6-Feb-09 62.27 149.27 5.18 51.36 48.00 337.61 131.11 364.10 83.26 57.50
13-Feb-09 62.22 155.31 4.85 51.72 47.00 326.44 129.34 371.61 84.45 57.36
20-Feb-09 58.65 146.34 4.45 49.19 47.00 301.13 126.33 352.11 81.96 61.18
27-Feb-09 58.14 150.37 4.40 49.44 45.00 304.26 125.20 349.03 81.80 58.34
6-Mar-09 58.52 160.41 4.41 52.07 43.75 303.07 121.86 342.64 84.46 61.17
13-Mar-09 58.79 163.58 4.37 54.78 43.50 307.88 124.49 345.02 83.10 61.64
20-Mar-09 61.69 172.60 4.49 55.30 42.50 314.53 130.29 362.29 84.51 62.47
27-Mar-09 62.80 179.89 4.37 57.19 42.50 304.72 135.50 366.63 85.26 60.89

Latest week, % chg. from


Week ago 1.8 4.2 -2.5 3.4 0.0 -3.1 4.0 1.2 0.9 -2.5
4 weeks ago 8.0 19.6 -0.6 15.7 -5.6 0.2 8.2 5.0 4.2 4.4
52 weeks ago -52.3 -52.6 -67.8 -45.3 -41.8 -47.5 -37.6 -42.1 -5.6 6.5
% Chg. YTD -49.8 -56.2 -63.6 -51.8 -40.1 -47.9 -36.3 -40.8 -8.6 3.7
52-week low 58.14 128.93 4.24 48.17 42.50 301.13 121.86 309.23 81.80 54.74
52-week high 145.55 398.07 13.18 105.12 71.00 571.34 255.90 663.23 103.38 86.44
FORECAST
Annual Avg 2009 56.75 141.25 4.66 49.25 46.00 301.25 123.75 337.50 86.50 61.25
Annual Avg 2010 61.25 148.75 5.14 62.50 54 310.00 127.00 347.50 95.00 70.25
Dec 2009 57.00 140.00 4.80 50.00 47.00 300.00 120.00 325.00 90.00 65.00
Dec 2010 65.00 160.00 5.50 70.00 58.00 325.00 130.00 360.00 98.00 75.00

**MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; WEIGHT


C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). ( per cent )
NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS 14.7
Aluminum: LME Aluminum, 99.7% Purity: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) 6.6
Copper: LME Copper, Grade A: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) 2.6
Nickel: LME Nickel: Closing Cash Price ($/lb) 3.4
Zinc: LME Zinc: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) 1.0
Uranium: Ux U308 ($/lb) 1.1
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 7.3
Wheat: 1 CWRS, Canada: St Lawrence, 13.5% (C$/mt) 2.8
Barley: Canada: Cash Prices: Feed Barley: Lethbridge: Grade 1 CW (C$/mt) 0.3
Canola: Canada: Cash Pr: Canola: Instore Vancouver: Grade 1 Canada NCC (C$/mt) 1.2
Cattle: Live Cattle Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) 1.8
Hogs: Lean Hogs Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) 1.2
Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, Overall TDCI weights based on
GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics. Canadian exports 2003-05

Weekly Commodity Price Report  March 30, 2009


www.td.com/economics

This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Financial Group. It is for information purposes only
and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and
affairs of TD Bank Financial Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Financial
Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources be-
lieved to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views,
including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other
factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-
Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Financial Group are not liable for any errors
or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

Weekly Commodity Price Report  March 30, 2009

You might also like