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TD Economics
Weekly Commodity Price Report
March 30, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
• The TDCI in U.S. dollars rose 3.3% last week, driven • Reports indicating a jump in Chinese imports triggered
largely by gains in energy prices. Precious and base a surge copper and zinc prices early in the week. And
metals prices also offered support, while agricultural despite some renewed recession concerns weighing
and forest product prices provided some offset. In on these markets as the week progressed, both metals
Canadian dollar terms, the index was up by a more ended the week up, with a 4.2% rise in copper prices
modest 1.2%. outshining the 3.4% increase in zinc prices.
• Crude oil prices shot up 7% last week, hitting a 4- • Precious metals prices also gained last week, as the
month high of US$54 per barrel on Thursday. The U.S. dollar slumped against the euro, boosting demand
rally came on the back of increased optimism of a for bullion an alternative investment. Silver outper-
global recovery and some bullish data suggesting that formed its yellow counterpart, with prices rising 4.5%
fuel consumption rose during the week prior. How- on the week, as investors sought a cheaper alternative
ever, crude oil fundamentals do not support a price to gold.
in the mid-$50’s, and this morning, prices have fallen • Wheat prices slid 3.1% last week, as forecasts for rain
back below US$51 per barrel as renewed economic in the dry U.S. Plains and signs of weaker demand
concerns filtered into the market. put downward pressure on the market. Wheat prices,
• Natural gas prices also found support from economic although down nearly 50% from year-ago levels, are
optimism, advancing by 2.5%. However, this increase still above historical averages.
masks the downtrend seen throughout the week as a
bearish U.S storage report and a gloomy economic
outlook dominated the markets. Dina Cover 416-982-2555
380 600
Overall TDCI
330
500
280
400
230
300
180
TDCI Ex. Energy
200
130
80 100
Apr-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Apr-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: TD Economics. Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: GlobalCoal, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
Apr-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Apr-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: FT / Haver Analytics, Ux Weekly. Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: WSJ / Haver Analytics.
105 260
240
100 220
200
95 180
160
90 140
120
85 100
Apr-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Apr-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: Random Lengths, Pulp & Paper Weekly. Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: WCE, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
WEEKLY AVG
07-Nov-08 217.3 137.5 100.8 289.9 222.6 162.4 140.7 254.7 161.1 118.1 339.8 260.9 190.4 165.0 1.17
14-Nov-08 209.0 135.6 100.5 275.6 219.1 157.4 141.6 254.6 165.2 122.5 335.8 266.9 191.7 172.5 1.22
21-Nov-08 200.6 134.1 100.8 261.0 222.8 153.5 136.5 250.8 167.7 126.0 326.4 278.6 191.9 170.7 1.25
28-Nov-08 201.1 136.0 99.9 260.3 243.0 154.2 137.5 247.4 167.3 122.9 320.2 299.0 189.7 169.1 1.23
05-Dec-08 188.1 130.7 99.1 240.2 228.2 145.1 133.3 236.6 164.4 124.6 302.1 286.9 182.5 167.6 1.26
12-Dec-08 178.4 129.3 97.0 223.1 237.5 140.2 134.0 222.6 161.3 121.0 278.2 296.2 174.9 167.2 1.25
19-Dec-08 172.6 129.8 95.5 211.5 251.7 137.0 139.6 210.2 158.1 116.3 257.5 306.4 166.8 170.0 1.22
26-Dec-08 162.2 130.8 95.1 190.6 256.0 138.0 142.5 197.3 159.2 115.7 232.0 311.5 168.0 173.4 1.22
02-Jan-09 176.8 132.0 94.4 217.5 260.3 141.3 142.9 215.3 160.7 114.9 264.9 317.0 172.1 174.0 1.22
09-Jan-09 182.6 134.7 93.7 226.1 253.6 151.7 146.1 217.0 160.1 111.3 268.6 301.3 180.2 173.6 1.19
16-Jan-09 166.6 129.6 92.6 200.2 245.7 141.6 140.7 206.1 160.3 114.6 247.7 304.0 175.2 174.0 1.24
23-Jan-09 166.3 129.5 91.7 199.7 255.4 139.5 140.7 209.6 163.2 115.6 251.7 322.0 175.9 177.3 1.26
30-Jan-09 166.2 130.1 91.2 199.0 270.2 137.8 140.8 203.3 159.1 111.5 243.4 330.4 168.5 172.2 1.22
06-Feb-09 164.9 130.6 89.7 196.0 273.6 140.6 140.3 203.5 161.1 110.7 241.9 337.6 173.6 173.2 1.23
13-Feb-09 159.3 130.3 89.9 185.7 278.5 138.6 138.7 197.1 161.2 111.3 229.7 344.5 171.5 171.5 1.24
20-Feb-09 154.0 128.3 89.8 177.3 292.5 131.6 132.0 193.6 161.3 112.9 222.9 367.7 165.4 166.0 1.26
27-Feb-09 157.0 127.7 89.6 183.6 291.0 130.3 131.8 196.8 160.1 112.3 230.2 364.9 163.4 165.2 1.25
06-Mar-09 158.7 126.2 87.8 188.3 277.0 131.9 132.6 204.2 162.3 113.0 242.2 356.5 169.7 170.6 1.29
13-Mar-09 157.5 126.1 87.4 185.9 275.3 132.5 133.5 202.4 162.1 112.3 239.0 353.9 170.2 171.6 1.29
20-Mar-09 161.9 127.7 86.5 193.0 278.7 136.1 136.8 203.6 160.6 108.8 242.6 350.3 171.1 172.0 1.26
27-Mar-09 167.3 128.1 86.4 203.0 281.4 137.4 135.1 206.0 157.6 106.3 249.9 346.3 169.2 166.3 1.23
WEEKLY AVG
07-Nov-08 220.00 831.87 775.00 64.31 6.74 104.02 742.85 10.19
14-Nov-08 221.00 824.41 775.00 58.64 6.65 104.00 734.50 9.61
21-Nov-08 224.00 823.18 775.00 52.34 6.68 85.69 749.30 9.49
28-Nov-08 226.00 799.55 775.00 52.50 6.66 78.19 817.10 10.38
05-Dec-08 225.00 793.64 765.00 45.50 6.44 76.09 769.30 9.49
12-Dec-08 221.00 758.90 765.00 44.71 5.69 78.25 798.30 10.17
19-Dec-08 213.00 743.75 765.00 39.65 5.67 77.81 845.05 10.87
26-Dec-08 210.00 742.21 765.00 32.37 5.42 80.56 859.94 11.01
02-Jan-09 209.00 740.01 755.00 42.50 5.66 79.19 874.83 11.15
09-Jan-09 207.00 728.77 755.00 44.51 5.85 81.44 850.65 11.06
16-Jan-09 203.00 715.50 755.00 36.91 5.40 81.46 823.75 10.77
23-Jan-09 197.00 709.84 755.00 42.18 4.80 88.19 854.25 11.45
30-Jan-09 193.00 707.25 755.00 42.52 4.75 83.15 902.95 12.21
06-Feb-09 191.00 701.11 735.00 40.50 4.84 78.17 912.15 12.62
13-Feb-09 199.00 688.09 735.00 36.91 4.71 80.28 924.30 13.34
20-Feb-09 200.00 682.27 735.00 36.99 4.32 76.34 968.80 14.25
27-Feb-09 199.00 680.37 735.00 41.81 4.16 65.32 967.40 13.74
06-Mar-09 197.00 679.34 705.00 43.26 4.24 61.70 921.70 13.00
13-Mar-09 198.00 667.67 705.00 45.68 3.88 62.10 915.60 12.97
20-Mar-09 193.00 661.14 705.00 49.46 3.83 60.30 927.75 13.00
27-Mar-09 192.00 660.23 705.00 53.09 3.92 61.39 932.85 13.59
WEEKLY AVG
7-Nov-08 89.79 180.59 5.27 50.46 46.00 318.45 161.42 370.84 93.53 54.74
14-Nov-08 86.14 168.71 4.98 51.05 48.00 329.71 153.81 354.67 91.99 55.50
21-Nov-08 81.48 159.26 4.60 52.31 53.00 318.90 143.80 344.70 86.79 55.67
28-Nov-08 78.63 165.72 4.56 55.23 55.00 321.46 142.34 343.10 86.71 57.99
5-Dec-08 71.74 153.85 4.24 51.93 55.00 316.95 127.71 309.23 84.47 58.14
12-Dec-08 66.96 142.00 4.40 48.90 54.00 319.99 127.01 319.83 83.19 58.12
19-Dec-08 64.99 134.31 4.41 48.17 53.00 332.63 136.66 334.59 85.00 62.50
26-Dec-08 67.71 128.93 4.41 50.81 53.00 341.82 140.85 344.95 86.33 61.08
2-Jan-09 66.34 131.84 4.89 51.44 53.00 344.04 139.60 351.23 86.13 59.73
9-Jan-09 69.81 147.63 5.55 56.73 53.00 347.34 144.44 375.80 86.47 63.59
16-Jan-09 65.73 146.38 4.74 55.47 51.00 334.71 133.03 363.14 83.59 60.96
23-Jan-09 60.57 145.25 4.98 52.57 51.00 336.73 133.12 362.15 83.30 59.79
30-Jan-09 59.51 146.38 5.11 50.31 48.00 341.01 136.24 365.24 81.93 57.20
6-Feb-09 62.27 149.27 5.18 51.36 48.00 337.61 131.11 364.10 83.26 57.50
13-Feb-09 62.22 155.31 4.85 51.72 47.00 326.44 129.34 371.61 84.45 57.36
20-Feb-09 58.65 146.34 4.45 49.19 47.00 301.13 126.33 352.11 81.96 61.18
27-Feb-09 58.14 150.37 4.40 49.44 45.00 304.26 125.20 349.03 81.80 58.34
6-Mar-09 58.52 160.41 4.41 52.07 43.75 303.07 121.86 342.64 84.46 61.17
13-Mar-09 58.79 163.58 4.37 54.78 43.50 307.88 124.49 345.02 83.10 61.64
20-Mar-09 61.69 172.60 4.49 55.30 42.50 314.53 130.29 362.29 84.51 62.47
27-Mar-09 62.80 179.89 4.37 57.19 42.50 304.72 135.50 366.63 85.26 60.89
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