WhatwillIfindinthissectionofthetoolkit?

ToolkitSection ToolsintheSection Why do a Needs Assessment? Introduction to the Toolkit What might your Needs Assessment Include? Getting Ready: Laying the Groundwork before You Begin the Needs Assessment Assessment of Local Employer and Industry Needs

Assessing Local Employer Needs

Market Sizing

Instructions for Sizing the Market for Plus 50 Workforce Education Programming Market Sizing Tool
Survey Development Guidelines Sample Survey Survey Administration Guidelines: How to Administer a Needs Assessment Survey Survey Analysis Guidelines Sample Survey Analysis Plan Focus Group Guidelines: How to Plan for and Facilitate a Focus Group Sample Focus Group Questions Summarizing Focus Group Results Sample Discussion Questions for Group Reflection on your Data Sample Needs Assessment Report Outline Sample Recommendations

Survey Development Survey Administration Survey Analysis

Conducting Focus Groups and Using Focus Group Data

Writing your Needs Assessment Report

MarketSizing:InstructionsforSizingtheMarketfor Plus50WorkforceEducationProgramming

What is Market Sizing? This document provides instructions for how to size your local market: how to develop an estimate for the number of potential plus 50 learners in your area. It is meant to be used with the Microsoft Excel Market Sizing Tool. This tool allows you to input specific information, and then based on that information, the tool provides you with market size estimates. You can update your estimate at any time by inputting new information. The instructions in this document walk you through how to use the Excel Market Sizing Tool. In general, market sizing is an exercise about using readily available information and applying reasonable assumptions to calculate an estimate of the total number of people who are potential customers for a particular product and service. The goal of the plus 50 market sizing is to take data from a variety of sources (including the US Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and recent research in the field), and put that information together so that you can estimate how many people in your area are potential customers of plus 50 programming at your college. You dont need to be an expert at math to do market sizingall you need is Excel, access to the internet to look up some specific information for your area, and these instructions. If you are not comfortable in Excel or with downloading information from the internet, you may want to enlist a tech savvy student to help you with this portion of the needs assessment. Why is Market Sizing Important? Having a good estimate of the market size will help colleges make decisions regarding how extensive their offerings should be. It will also help them make decisions around the extent to which they should tailor offerings. For example, if there is a large market in the service area, the college may want to offer more workforce training courses that would attract only plus 50 students. However, if the market is smaller, the college may wish to offer fewer tailored courses, or courses with special sections for plus 50 students. This tool will also provide you with information to take into consideration when you make decisions about pricing your courses (because it will provide data on income for your target market). Overview of Market Sizing Steps This document will walk you through, step by step, the process necessary to estimate your local plus 50 market. Here is a brief overview of the process: 1. Determine the total plus 50 population in your area. 2. Determine how many people in your area are interested in plus 50 programming by using the labor force participation rate and an estimate of the number of people who may be interested in an encore career. 3. Determine what percent of your target market can afford plus 50 programming. Step-by-Step Instructions for Estimating the Size of Your Plus 50 Market The step numbers listed below correspond to the step numbers in the Excel Market Sizing Tool. You should have your Excel Market Sizing Tool open, and use these instructions to help you interpret the appropriate data.

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1. Determine the geographical boundaries of your market. Depending on where you are located, your target market may include your county or several counties. (US Census data are most widely available on the county level, so we recommend choosing counties as the geographical unit on which to base your market sizing estimates.) Consider where most of your students come from to attend your college. Enter the name(s) of your chosen county(ies) in the green cell to complete Step 1. 2. Use US Census data to determine the total size of the Plus 50 population in your area. The following link will allow you to search by state and county for the total population in 5-year age increments. http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/asrh/CC-EST2007-alldata.html When you click on the above link, you will see a list of states. Find your state and download the data sheet to an Excel file first. Once you have your states data in Excel, then look up the population figures for various age ranges. Note that column E lists the county, column F lists the years (code 10=2007 which is the most recent year available), and column G lists the age groups (codes 11-18 are 50+ in five year increments, with 11 being ages 50-54, 12 being ages 55-59, etc.). We recommend using Internet Explorer as your Web browser for this step, as it will automatically download the data into an Excel sheet. Browsers like Firefox will open the data in a new tab and it is more difficult to navigate in this format. Based on your particular needs you may want to group the entire plus 50 population into one category, or you may want to segment the population into sub-groups such as 50-64 (codes 11, 12, and 13) and 65 and over (codes 14-18). The Excel Market Sizing Tool is set up so that you can cut and paste the numbers directly from the Census Excel worksheet into the Market Sizing Tool. Cut and paste these figures into the yellow cells in the Excel Market Sizing Tool. If your target market is comprised of multiple counties, cut and paste the population figures for each of those counties in the Excel Market Sizing Tool. The worksheet will automatically add the figures from different counties together. 3. Take into account the labor force participation rate in your area. The labor force participation rate is the fraction of the working age population (16-year olds and older) that is currently employed or actively looking for employment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Website reports on this rate by age groups. Unfortunately, information on the labor participation rate by the plus 50 age breakdown is not available on a county or state level, so to create an estimate you should apply the national rate to your local population. The table below shows the nationwide percentages of individuals age 50-64 and 65+ who are employed, unemployed, and not in the labor force. These figures are from the BLS and represent the first quarter of 2009. New data becomes available each quarter. Percent of the US Plus 50 Population by Employment Status Employment status Age 50-64 Age 65+ Age 50+ Employed 66.5% 16.6% 46.8% Unemployed 4.7% 1.1% 3.3% Not in Labor Market 28.7% 82.3% 49.9% If you would like more up-to-date information, use this link to find the information on the labor force participation rate: http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/outside.jsp?survey=ln. You will need to have Java installed in your Web browser in order to access the data query.

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Either use the percentages in the table above or enter the percentages you calculated from the BLS Website into the blue cells in the Excel Market Sizing Tool. The tool will then automatically calculate the Plus 50 Population in your target market by employment status. 4. Estimate the percentage of the labor force that may have an interest in plus 50 programs. At this point you must make some assumptions about how many of the employed and unemployed people in your target market are interested in building their skills and attending programming at your community college.

Steps for estimating the percentage of the population in the labor force that might have an interest in Plus 50 programs:

Lets make both a high and low estimate of these figures. On the high end, lets assume that 90% of those who are unemployed would be interested in classes or programs to improve their chance of finding a job. (This estimate assumes this percentage of people would be interested if they had sufficient information about community college opportunities.) On the low end, lets assume that only 40% of the unemployed would be interested in such programming. In regards to the people that are currently employed, lets assume that a high estimate would be that 50% of these people are interested in plus 50 programming. A low estimate might be 10% of the currently employed population. You should choose high and low estimates of the rates to apply to employed and unemployed based on what you know is happening in your community and enter these percentages into the orange cells under In Labor Force in the Excel Market Sizing Tool. The tool will then automatically calculate the Plus 50 Population in your target market interested in programming.

Steps for estimating the percentage of the population not in the labor force that might have an interest in Plus 50 programs:
There are likely to be some people who have retired and therefore are not included in BLSs labor force participation rate (because they are neither employed nor looking for work). However, some of these are likely to be interested in an encore career or are simply looking to take classes to learn new skills.

In 2008, the organization Civic Ventures reported on the number of Americans currently in encore careers 1 and interested in encore careers. According to their report, 46% of Americans ages 51-62 and 34% of those ages 6370 are interested in an encore career. Therefore, a reasonable estimate might be that 40% of the plus 50 population not currently in the labor force would be interested in an encore career and therefore interested in programming at your community college. Enter this percentage into the orange cells under the Not in Labor Force/Possible Encore Career column in the Excel Market Sizing Tool. The tool will then automatically calculate the potential number of people who are interested in an encore career in your target market. 5. Estimate what percentage of your target market is willing to pay for community college workforce programming. Take the total target market you have determined so far by adding up the number of employed, unemployed, and encore career seekers. This represents the total number of people in your area who might be interested in plus 50 programming. However, not all of them may be able or willing to pay the fees to attend classes.

CivicVenturesdefinesanencorecareerasthepursuitofpurposedrivenworkinthesecondhalfoflife.

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Use US Census data to look up the income levels for the plus 50 population in your target market. You will need to make a decision about what income level in your local area to use as a threshold for willingness to pay for college programming. Income levels and the cost of living vary widely by geographic area. You may want to choose an annual income of $40,000 as the threshold, or you may decide this threshold should be at least $60,000. Choose an income level or a range of possible income levels that make sense for your community. Enter up to three separate income levels into the purple cells in the Excel Market Sizing Tool to calculate a range of possible market sizes. o Note: If your state offers tuition reduction programs from students age 65+, you should take this into account during this stage of the market sizing. For instance, you may decide that your income threshold for ages 45-64 is $50,000, but your income threshold for age 65+ is only $20,000. For those colleges that have multiple counties in your service area, you should just choose ONE county to look up income data. The tool uses the income data to determine the percent of households in a given income range. You do not need to have this information broken out by county, since counties near each other are likely to be similar in income distribution. You might choose the county that most of your students come from, or the county that your college is actually located in. If your students come from multiple counties with a range of incomes, choose a county that you feel is representative of the income levels for your entire service area. http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTGeoSearchByListServlet?ds_name=ACS_2007_3YR_G00_&_lang=en &_ts=259544251399. This is the link to the US Census American Fact Finder. It allows you to enter which geographic area you are interested in and the type of data you want. o First use the menus to find your county, and then Add your county to the Current geographic selections viewer. Click Next and this will then lead to you to a long list of available data tables. o Look for the table titled Age of Householder by Household Income, or data table #B19037 (the tables are listed in numerical order). Add this table to the Current table selections viewer. Then click Show Results to view the age of householders by household income for the past 12 months. Please note, the census does not break down this type of information by age 50+, but they do offer it by ages 45-64 and 65+. We will use these categories together as a stand-in for 50+.

Steps to retrieving US Census data for household income, broken down by age:

Steps to calculating the percentage of households in your chosen income range:

Once you have navigated through American Fact Finder to the appropriate table, follow these instructions to calculate the percentage of households in your chosen income range. As mentioned above, data are displayed for ages 45-64 and 65+. o Enter the total number of householders ages 45-64 years and 65+ per household income range into the pink cells in the Excel Market Sizing Tool. The tool will then automatically calculate the total number and percentage of householders 45+, 45-64, and 65+ per household income range that can afford plus 50 programming. o Depending on your chosen income threshold(s), the tool will then populate the percentage of the population at and above the threshold income levels. The Market Sizing Tool will automatically multiply the percentage of the plus 50 population that can afford college programming by the total size of the market you determined above in Step 5. These figures (in the red boxes) represent your total market size for plus 50 programming at your college. You will see that you have three estimated market sizes (with ranges) corresponding to three income thresholds.

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