P. 1
Currency Daily Report, April 30

Currency Daily Report, April 30

|Views: 1|Likes:
Published by Angel Broking
30th April, 2013
30th April, 2013

More info:

Categories:Types, Business/Law
Published by: Angel Broking on Apr 30, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

04/30/2013

pdf

text

original

Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| April 30, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam – Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Ange l Broking Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroking.com

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday| April 30, 2013

Highlights
US Pending Home Sales increased by 1.5 percent in March.
Japan’s Unemployment Rate declined to 4.1 percent in last month. UK’s GfK Consumer Confidence was at -27-mark in the current month. Japan’s Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.1-mark in April. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of favorable economic data from US and Japan coupled with expectations that central banks over the world will continue with its monetary policies. US Personal Spending rose at slow pace of 0.2 percent in March as against a rise of 0.7 percent a month ago. Personal Income grew by 0.2 percent in March from earlier increase of 1.1 percent in prior month. Pending Home Sales increased by 1.5 percent in March with respect to decline of 1 percent a month earlier.

Market Highlights (% change)
Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June’13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May’13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5904.1 19387.5 14818.75 1593.6 16929.7 1940.7 58497.8 13884.1 94.50 1467.40 2412.20 7125.00 102.09 Prev. day 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 2.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 1.6 3.1 0.0 1.2 0.0

as on April 29, 2013 WoW 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.0 5.7 0.7 7.7 -0.1 6.5 5.2 3.4 2.9 -0.3 MoM 3.5 2.8 1.1 1.6 11.4 -2.3 5.3 9.9 -2.8 -8.3 -11.4 -9.2 YoY 13.8 6.0 12.0 13.6 14.6 -0.3 -5.4 45.8 -9.9 -10.6 -23.0 -15.4 1.2

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.4 percent in the yesterday’s trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable pending home sales data from US acted as a negative factor for the DX. Further, US equities traded on a positive note which also exerted downside pressure on the currency. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.10 and closed at 82.20 on Monday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May’13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.20 54.18 54.41 54.41 Prev. day -0.4 0.4 0.23 0.22 WoW -0.8 0.0 0.56 0.55

as on April 29, 2013 MoM -0.8 0.0 -0.48 -0.48 YoY 3.5 -3.0 2.87 2.87

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency appreciated on account of selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks. Additionally, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX supported an upside in the currency. Further, expectations of cut in the key rates by the central banks of the country in its review meeting to be held on 3rd May also acted as a positive factor for the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day high of 54.158 and closed at 54.18 against dollar on Monday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.4,753.40 crores ($878.54 million) as on 29th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.60,375.70 crores ($11,188.60 million) till 29th April 2013. Outlook

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Source: Telequote

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of rise in foreign funds inflows cut in the interest rates by central bank along with selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks will support an upside in the currency.

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR May’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for April 30, 2013 Support 54.25/54.07 Resistance 54.55/54.72

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday| April 30, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.5 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, decline in borrowing cost for Italy supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp gains in the euro were capped on the back of expectation of interest rate cut by ECB. European Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) increased by 0.5 points to 44.2-mark in April as against a rise of 43.7-level in March. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3115 and closed at 1.3097 against dollar on Monday. Outlook In today’s session, we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Further, expectation of favorable economic data from Spain and Germany may support currency to gain strength. However, unemployment rate in Euro zone is expected to increase which may cap sharp upside in the Euro. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 71.05/70.8 71.35/71.5 valid for April 30, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May ’13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3097 70.94 71.2 71.2 Prev. day 0.5 0.0 0.63 0.66

as on April 29, 2013 WoW 0.2 -0.3 0.81 0.84 MoM 1.9 -1.5 1.61 1.62 YoY -1.2 1.68 1.70

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May’13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May ’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5499 84.021 84.40 Prev. day 0.14 -0.260 0.63

as on April 29, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.14 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX supported the currency to trade in green. Additionally, expectation of further monetary stimulus easing by Bank of England got faded acted as a positive factor. UK’s GfK Consumer Confidence was at -27-mark in April as against a fall of 26-level in March. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5546 and closed at 1.5499 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. However, expectation of unfavorable economic data from UK may cap sharp gains in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May ’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 30, 2013 Support 84.25/84.1 Resistance

WoW 1.4 1.49 2.37

MoM 1.8 1.89 2.01

YoY -4.7 -1.68 -1.56

84.38

0.62

2.34

1.99

-1.58

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

84.55/84.7

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday| April 30, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.3 percent in the yesterday’s trading session. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Japan’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.7 points to 51.1-mark in April as against a rise of 50.4-level in March. Household Spending rose by 5.2 percent in March from earlier rise of 0.8 percent a month ago. Unemployment Rate declined to 4.1 percent in March as compared to increase of 4.3 percent in prior month. Prelim Industrial Production grew at slow pace of 0.2 percent in last month with respect to rise of 0.6 percent a month earlier. Retail Sales declined by 0.3 percent in March when compared to fall of 2.2 percent in February. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 97.33 and closed at 97.75 against dollar on Monday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned as a result of favorable economic data from the country. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May ’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 30, 2013 Support 55.35/55.1 Resistance 55.9/56.2

JPY (% change)
Last 97.75 0.5542 55.68 55.69 Prev day -0.3 -0.07 1.30 1.30

as on April 29, 2013 WoW -1.5 1.54 2.55 2.55 MoM 4.9 -3.78 -4.06 -4.05 YoY 21.8 -15.32 -14.98 -14.97

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May’13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May’13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on April 30, 2013
Indicator Bank Holiday Household Spending y/y Prelim Industrial Production m/m Retail Sales y/y German Retail Sales m/m GfK German Consumer Climate French Consumer Spending m/m Spanish Flash GDP q/q German Unemployment Change Net Lending to Individuals m/m CPI Flash Estimate y/y Unemployment Rate Employment Cost Index q/q S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y Chicago PMI CB Consumer Confidence Country China Japan Japan Japan Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro UK Euro Euro US US US US Time (IST) All Day 5:00am 5:20am 5:20am 11:30am 11:30am 12:15pm 12:30pm 1:25pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 7:15pm 7:30pm Actual 5.2% 0.2% -0.3% Forecast 1.7% 0.4% 0.5% -0.2% 5.9 0.2% -0.5% 2K 1.3B 1.6% 12.1% 0.5% 9.1% 52.5 60.6 Previous 0.8% 0.6% -2.2% -0.3% 5.9 -0.2% -0.8% 13K 1.5B 1.7% 12.0% 0.4% 8.1% 52.4 59.7 Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High

www.angelbroking.com

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->