Geostatistical Reservoir Modeling

MSIY
Jose R. Villa
©2007
Geostatiscal reservoir modeling
(GSLIB, SGeMS, SReM)
Reservoir simulation + IPM
(ECLIPSE100, PRiSMa)
Well location, type and trajectory optimization
(PRiSMa-O)
Uncertainty assessment
(EED)
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Statistical concepts
3. Spatial continuity
4. Estimation
– Kriging
5. Simulation
– Sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS)
6. Facies modeling
– Sequential indicator simulation (SIS)
– Fluvial modeling
7. Porosity and permeability modeling
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Statistical concepts
3. Spatial continuity
4. Estimation
1. Kriging
5. Simulation
– Sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS)
6. Facies modeling
– Sequential indicator simulation (SIS)
– Fluvial modeling
7. Porosity and permeability modeling
Workflow for Reservoir Modeling
Caers, J., Introduction to Geostatistics for Reservoir Characterization, Stanford University, 2006 (modified)
Data for Reservoir Modeling
Deutsch, C., Geostatiscal Reservoir Modeling, Oxford University Press, 2002
Geostatistics

Branch of applied statistics that places emphasis on
– The geological context of the data

The spatial relationship of the data

Integration of data with different support volume and scales

Indispensable part of reservoir management since
reservoir models are required for planning,
economics and decision making process

Provides a numerical description of reservoir
heterogeneity for:

Estimation of reserves
– Field management and optimization
– Uncertainty assessment
Reservoir Modeling (1)
Reservoir Modeling (2.1)
Reservoir Modeling (2.2)
Modeling Scale
Caers, J., Petroluem Geostatistics, Society of Petoroluem Engineers, 2005
Model Building
Caers, J., Petroluem Geostatistics, Society of Petoroluem Engineers, 2005
Uncertainty
Caers, J., Petroluem Geostatistics, Society of Petoroluem Engineers, 2005
Role of Geostatistics

Tool for building a reservoir model using all
available reservoir and well data allowing a
realistic representation of geology

Links the static and dynamic reservoir model

Framework for uncertainty assessment
Application of Geostatistics

Data integration

Well and seismic data

Co-variable (porosity and permeability)

Tendencies

High-resolution reservoir models for flow
simulation

Uncertainty assessment

Volumetrics

Recoverable reserves
Further Readings
Geostatistical Reservoir Modeling
Clayton Deutsch
Oxford University Press
GSLIB: A Geostatistical Software Library
Clayton Deutsch and Andre Journel
Oxford University Press
Introduction to Applied Geostatistics
Ed Isaaks and Mohan Srivastava
Oxford University Press
Petroleum Geostatistics
Jef Caers
Society of Petroleum Engineers
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Statistical concepts
3. Spatial continuity
4. Estimation
– Kriging
5. Simulation
– Sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS)
6. Facies modeling
– Sequential indicator simulation (SIS)
– Fluvial modeling
7. Porosity and permeability modeling
Exploratory Data Analysis

Definitions

Population

Sample

Data preparation and quality check

Decision of stationarity
Probability Distributions

Variable: a measure (φ, k, i) which can assume any of
the prescribed set of values
– Continuous (z): φ, k
– Categorical (i
k
=0,1; k=category): facies

Random variable Z: a random variable whose
outcome (z) is unknown but its frequency of outcome
is quantified by a random function

Random function: describes/models the variability or
uncertainty of unknown true values (outcomes),
either as cumulative (CDF) or density (PDF)
distribution model
– RF is location and information dependent
Probability Distributions – cdf
( ) ( ) Prob{ }
Z
F z F z Z z · · ≤

−∞ · +∞ ·
∈ · ≤ − ≤
∈ · −
( ) [0,1]
( ) 0, ( ) 1
Prob{ ( , )} Prob{ } Prob{ }
Prob{ ( , )} ( ) ( )
F z
F F
Z a b Z b Z a
Z a b F b F a
Probability Distributions – pdf

+ −
· ·
0
( ) ( )
( ) '( ) lim
dz
F z dz F z
f z F z
dz
−∞
+∞
−∞

· · ≤
·


( ) 0
( ) ( ) Prob{ }
( ) 1
z
f z
f x dx F z Z z
f z dz
Expected Value and Variance
( )
2 2
2
2
} { } } { { } var{
) ( } {
m Z E Z E Z E Z
dz z zf m Z E
− · − · ·
· ·


∞ −
σ

Expected value: the actual mean of a population

Variance: measure of spread of a random variable
from the expected value
Mean and variance (1)

Sample

Population
( )


·
·
− ·
·
n
i
i
n
i
i
z z
n
s
z
n
z
1
2
2
1
1
1
( ) } {
} {
2
2
m Z E
Z E m
− ·
·
σ
Mean and variance (2)
Distributions

Parametric

Uniform

Exponential

Normal standard

Normal

Lognormal

Non-parametric

Experimental, inferred by data (histograms)
Uniform Distribution
−∞
¹
∀ ∈
¹
·

'
¹
∀ ∉
¹
∀ ≤ ¹
¹
− ¹
· ≤ · · ∀ ∈
'

¹
∀ ≥ ¹
¹

1
z [a,b]
( )
0 z [a,b]
0 z a
( ) Prob{ } ( ) z [a,b]
1 z
z
f z
b a
z a
F z Z z f z dz
b a
b
( )
( )
σ
+
· ·
· · + +


· − ·

2 2 2 2
2
2 2 2
{ }
2
1 1
{ }
3
=Var{ } { }
12
b
a
a b
m E Z
E Z z dz a ab b
b a
b a
Z E Z m
Exponential Distribution

− − −
· ∀
1
· · · − · − ∀
1
¸ ]
∫ ∫
0 0
0
1
( ) z>0
1 1
( ) ( ) 1 z>0
z
a
z
z z x x z
a a a
f z e
a
F z f x dx e dx ae e
a a
σ
+∞ +∞
− −
· ·
· · ·
· − · − ·
∫ ∫
2 2 2
0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2
{ }
1
{ } 2 2
=Var{ } { } 2
z z
a a
m E Z a
E Z z e dz ze dz a
a
Z E Z m a a a
Normal Standard Distribution
π
π


· ∀ ∈ −∞ +∞
· · ∀ ∈ −∞ +∞
∫ ∫
2
2
0 0
1
( ) z ( , )
2
1
( ) ( ) z ( , )
2
z
a
z z x
a
f z e
F z f x dx e dx
σ
· ·
·
2
{ } 0
=Var{ } 1
m E Z
Z
¹

'
¹
0
1
Z N
Normal Distribution
( )
( )
σ
σ
σ π
σ π



+∞

−∞ −∞
· ∀ ∈ −∞ +∞
· · ∀ ∈ −∞ +∞
∫ ∫
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
( ) z ( , )
2
1
( ) ( ) z ( , )
2
z m
x m
z
f z e
F z f z dz e dx
σ σ
· ·
·
2 2
{ }
=Var{ }
m E Z m
Z
σ
σ
¹

'
¹
¹ −
· →
'
¹
2
0
1
m
Z N
Z m
Y N
Lognormal Distribution
( )
β
α
β
σ
+
· ·
· −
2
2
2
2 2
{ }
=Var{ } 1
m E Z e
Z m e
( )
σ
α
β
¹
> →
'
¹
¹
· →
'
¹
2
2
0 log
m
Z N
Y Ln Z N
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
σ
σ
σ π
σ π


· ∀ >
· · ∀ >
∫ ∫
2
2
2
2
- ln z
2
- ln x
z
2
0 0
1
( ) e z 0
2
1 e
( ) ( ) z 0
2
m
m
z
f z
z
F z f x dx dx
x
Histograms
Quantiles and Probability Intervals (1)

Quantile: is a z-value that corresponds to a
fixed cumulative frequency. For example, the
0.5 quantile (median or q(0.5)) is the z-value
that separates the data into two equally
halves.

Lower quantile: q(0.25)

Upper quantile: q(0.75)

Interquantile range: IQR = q(0.75) - q(0.25)
Quantiles and Probability Intervals (2)
·
· ≤ · ∈
( )
( ( )) Prob{ ( )} [0,1]
q p z
F q p Z q p p
p=
q(p)
Q-Q Plots (1)

Tool for comparing two different distributions
• Plot of matching p-quantile values q
1
(p) vs.
q
2
(p) from the two different distributions
Q-Q Plots (2)
Q-Q Plots (3)
data 1
d
a
t
a

2
data 1
d
a
t
a

2
data 1
d
a
t
a

2
2 1
2 2
2 1
2 1
pdf pdf
m m
σ σ
>
>

Monte Carlo Simulation
• Generate a set of uniform random numbers p (random number generator)
• Retrieve for each such number p, the quantile q of the cdf
• The set of values qp are called “samples drawn from the distribution F
• The histogram of these qp values match the cdf F
z
p
Data Transformation (1)

Transform distribution of a dataset into
another distribution

Applications

Well-log porosity to core porosity if the latter is
deemed more reliable

Simulation results into a specific target distribution

Transformation into known analytical models
(Gaussian or normal score transform)
Data Transformation (2)
Deutsch, C., Geostatiscal Reservoir Modeling, Oxford University Press, 2002
Data Transformation (3)
σ
σ π
− ¸ _

÷
¸ ,
·
2
1
2
1
( )
2
z m
f z e
Deutsch, C., Geostatiscal Reservoir Modeling, Oxford University Press, 2002
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Statistical concepts
3. Spatial continuity
4. Estimation
– Kriging
5. Simulation
– Sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS)
6. Facies modeling
– Sequential indicator simulation (SIS)
– Fluvial modeling
7. Porosity and permeability modeling
Spatial Correlation
Distancia (ft) Permeabilidad (md)
50 11.75
100 4.09
150 3.05
. .
. .
. .
6400 12.02
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Statistical concepts
3. Spatial continuity
4. Estimation
– Kriging
5. Simulation
– Sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS)
6. Facies modeling
– Sequential indicator simulation (SIS)
– Fluvial modeling
7. Porosity and permeability modeling
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Statistical concepts
3. Spatial continuity
4. Estimation
– Kriging
5. Simulation
– Sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS)
6. Facies modeling
– Sequential indicator simulation (SIS)
– Fluvial modeling
7. Porosity and permeability modeling
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Statistical concepts
3. Spatial continuity
4. Estimation
– Kriging
5. Simulation
– Sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS)
6. Facies modeling
– Sequential indicator simulation (SIS)
– Fluvial modeling
7. Porosity and permeability modeling
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Statistical concepts
3. Spatial continuity
4. Estimation
– Kriging
5. Simulation
– Sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS)
6. Facies modeling
– Sequential indicator simulation (SIS)
– Fluvial modeling
7. Porosity and permeability modeling

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