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CALAMITY: MARKETING YOUR WAY OUT OF THIS RECESSION

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Source: Conde Naste Portfolio, January 2009

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

RESULTS 1–10 OF ABOUT 22,200,000 FOR RECESSION AND MARKETING

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

FUNDAMENTAL SOCIETAL SHIFT
FROM A CREDIT TO A CONFIDENCE CRISIS SEA CHANGES IN CONSUMER BEHAVIORS COMPANIES MUST CHANGE HOW THEY CONNECT WITH CONSUMERS

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

MANAGING FOR AN UPTURN

SUPERIOR CASH FLOW AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH ALIGN BRAND AND BUSINESS STRATEGY ACQUIRE TALENT AND QUALITY DO MORE WITH LESS SHARPEN MESSAGING AND ROI RETURN TO YOUR CORE FACE YOUR CUSTOMER
5 Source: Y&R Strategy, HBR: Anthony T Jan, John Quelch
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

HALF OF ALL GLOBAL WEALTH HAS EVAPORATED

$36 TRILLION DOLLAR LOSS WORLDWIDE S&P 500 DECLINED 64.4% FROM 2000 45% OF AMERICAN WEALTH FROM LOSS OF EQUITY AND HOUSING VALUES AVERAGE RECESSION IS 6-12 MONTHS. THIS IS A MARATHON
6 Source: Bloomberg, Iconoculture March 2009
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

THE NEW FEAR ECONOMY

UNEMPLOYMENT HOUSING VALUES EQUITY MARKETS INTEREST RATES ? COMMODITY PRICES IN(STAG)FLATION ? BAILOUT ?

NATIONAL DEBT DETROIT CURRENCY VALUATION ? PROTECTIONISM ? BANK LENDING FACTORY & HOUSING STARTS CREDIT CARD EXPOSURE

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

}

EXCLUDING 2003 / IRAQ WAR PERIOD

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: LOWEST SINCE 1967 (INCEPTION)

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Source: ABC News

THE LARGEST U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT POST WWII

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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

VISUALIZING THE BAILOUT

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Source: The Atlantic

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

FRACTURED FAITH IN THE AMERICAN DREAM

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HOUSING VALUES CONTINUE TO DECLINE ACROSS THE U.S.

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Source: “Irrational Exuberance”, 2nd edition, 2006, by Robert J. Schiller

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

AMERICAN’S HOMES NO LONGER PERSONAL LINES OF CREDIT

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Source:Us Department of Housing and Labor, 2009

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

WHILE THE CREDIT CRISIS HAS HALTED HOUSING STARTS

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Source: www.calculatedriskblog.com

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

INTO THE GREAT WIDE OPEN

UNEMPLOYMENT 8.5%; HIGHEST IN TWENTY-FIVE YEARS FOURTH STRAIGHT MONTH OF 600,000 JOBS LOST

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY MOST JOB LOSSES, WEAKEST RECOVERY

16 Source: Change in Nonfarm Pay rolls, Reported Monthly, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S Dept of Labor

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

DEALING WITH THE STRESS OF THE CURRENT ECONOMY BY

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Source: Comscore

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY RECESSION

MILLIONAIRES HAVE LOST ONETHIRD OF THEIR NET WORTH.

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

AFFLUENT MORTGAGE RATE DEFAULTS

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Source: LPS Applied Analytics

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC RELATED SEARCHES

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Source: Comscore

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

ONE STORY IN THE AMERICAN NIGHTMARE

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Source:New York Times

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

A GROWING REALITY: A MORTGAGE IS FOREVER

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS UNCERTAINTY

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

YES WE CAN?

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Source: Pew Research Center

MASLOW UPENDED:
MARKETING MUST MOVE FROM PASSION TO COMPASSION

07 20 0 20 9

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Source: American Progress.org February 2009

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

“WE HAVE A STRONG CAPITAL POSITION”

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TECTONIC SHIFTS IN CONSUMERISM:
DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE LACK OF PERMANENCE LACK OF LEADERSHIP AND RESPONSIBILITY

TAXPAYERS ARE NOW SHAREHOLDERS

TRUST

SELFISHNESS AND COLLUSION

FAILURE OF REGULATORS EGREGIOUS AND CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR
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PROLONGED CONFLICTS AND PARTISANSHIP

LACK OF LEADERSHIP AND RESPONSIBILITY

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SELFISHNESS AND COLLUSION

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

PROLONGED CONFLICTS AND PARTISANSHIP

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EGREGIOUS AND CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

FAILURE OF REGULATORS

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

TAXPAYERS ARE NOW SHAREHOLDERS

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

LACK OF PERMANENCE

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

THE NEW CULTURAL FAULT LINE

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

WE EXAMINED 15 YEARS OF DATA FROM BRANDASSET VALUATOR®

WORLD’S LARGEST 40,000 BRANDS QUARTERLY U.S. DATABASE OF PANEL OF BRANDS 215 STUDIES 15,000+ RESPONDENTS OVER 500,00 ACROSS 44 CONSUMERS COUNTRIES 72 DIFFERENT BRAND METRICS
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BRANDS NOW ACCOUNT FOR 30% OF THE VALUE OF THE S&P 500

Source: Millward Brown Optimor 2007 30 37
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

THE 250 MOST VALUABLE GLOBAL BRANDS ARE $2.197 TRILLION DOLLARS WHICH EXCEEDS THE GDP OF FRANCE

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

BRAND ESTEEM AND REGARD IS DOWN 12% BRAND AWARENESS HAS DECLINED BY 20% PERCEPTIONS OF BRAND QUALITY HAS ERODED 24% TRUST IN BRANDS HAS DECLINED BY 50%

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

TRUST IS DESIRABLE, BUT IT HASN’T DIFFERENTIATED

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Source:BrandAsset Valuator 1993-2007

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

IN THE PAST QUARTER, A ‘TRUST VIRUS’ INFECTED MANY CATEGORIES

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Source: BAV USA FY2006, FY2007, Q4 2007, Q4 2008; All Adults

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

“I SCREWED UP”
42 Source: Barack Obama Press Conference, February 2009
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

CONSUMERS ARE BEGINNING TO OWN THEIR PROBLEMS

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Source: Time Magazine

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

THEY REALIZE THERE’S A LONG, HARD SLOG AHEAD

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Source: Reinhart and Rogoff, The Aftermath of Financial Crises, 2009

SAVINGS RATE HAS RISEN IN PAST FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS

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Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

Q4 SPENDING FELL 3.7% FROM Q3 STEEPEST DECLINE IN 62 YEARS.
$3 TRILLION IN SPENDING STOPPED IN Q4, WAS SUSTAINING US GDP

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Source: www.calculatedriskblog.com

Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

MOST POPULAR TAG’S ABOUT CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

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Source: Gabriel Dance, Aron PIlhofer and Andrew Kueneman - New York Times

EATE COMPETITIVE DVANTAGE NOW

EVERY RECESSION ENDS...EVENTUALLY CONSUMERS MOVING FROM ANXIETY TO ACTION HOW YOU ACT NOW WILL SHAPE YOUR FUTURE PERFORMANCE
48 39
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

THE NEW RULES OF ‘POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM’

NEW CULTURAL VALUES NEW CONSUMER BEHAVIORS NEW MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #1 CULTURAL VALUE = LIQUID LIFE

CONSUMER STRATEGY =

DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION DOLLARS AND SENSE

MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE

=

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION

CULTURAL VALUE=LIQUID LIFE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= DOLLARS AND SENSE

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

DOLLARS AND SENSE

CULTURAL VALUE=LIQUID LIFE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= DOLLARS AND SENSE

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #2 CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY EMPATHY AND RESPECT VALUE AND VALUES

CONSUMER STRATEGY =

MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE

=

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY

EMPATHY AND RESPECT

CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = R-E-S-P-E-C-T MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = VALUE AND VALUES

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

VALUE AND VALUES

CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = R-E-S-P-E-C-T MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = VALUE AND VALUES

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #3 CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT

CONSUMER STRATEGY = DURABLE LIVING MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = BRAND THAT LASTS

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

DURABLE LIVING

CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DURABLE LIVING MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = BRAND THAT LASTS

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

BRAND THAT LASTS

CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DURABLE LIVING MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = BRAND THAT LASTS

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #4 CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM COMMUNITY ORGANIZER

CONSUMER STRATEGY =

MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE

=

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM

CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= COMMUNITY ORGANIZER

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

COMMUNITY ORGANIZER

CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= COMMUNITY ORGANIZER

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

THE OPPORTUNISTIC CEO: BRAND MANAGER IN CHIEF

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

MARKETING IS NOT A COST, BUT A FIDUCIARY RESPONSIBILITY TO SHAREHOLDERS

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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

THE CHINESE CHARACTER FOR CRISIS ALSO MEANS OPPORTUNITY

BAD COMPANIES ARE DESTROYED BY CRISIS. GOOD COMPANIES SURVIVE THEM. GREAT COMPANIES ARE IMPROVED BY THEM.” —ANDY GROVE
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam

RECESSION-PROOF YOUR BRAND
JOIN THE CONVERSATION AT THEBRANDBUBBLE.COM ON TWITTER @JOHNGERZEMA OR ON FACEBOOK

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