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Accidental Release Assessment

..

(Air Pollution Dispersion Model)



(Accidental Release Model)

(Risk Assessment)
2


1.
2.

3.
4.

Stages of a Quantitative Risk Assessment


What can go wrong?

- Hazard Identification

How bad is it?

- Consequence Analysis

How often?

- Frequency Analysis

Implications?

- Risk Assessment

Prioritisation?

- Risk Management
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Identify Hazards
Postulate Accidents
Evaluate Consequences

Estimate Frequencies
Risk Summation
Options to Decrease
Frequencies

Options to Mitigate
Consequences
Risks Controlled?

Optimise Options to Manage Risks


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1. ,



2. (worst-case analysis)
()


3)

4) (Toxic Substances) , ,

5)
3

6)

(dense)
7) (
(Surface roughness)
7

I.
3

Risk Assessment

Benzyl chloride
Chlorine
Chloroform
Fluorine
Furan
Hydrazine
Hydrogen sulfide

Nitric acid
Nitric oxide
Phenol (liquid)
Phosgene
Sulfur dioxide
Sulfuric acid
Vinyl chloride
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I.


CFR68


, , , , , ,
, , ,


, ,
,, ,

,
,
, ,
,
, ,

, ,

, ,

, ,
,

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1. US.EPA, Risk Management Program Guidance for
Offsite Consequence Analysis, EPA 550-B-99-009,
United States Office of Solid Waste, Environmental
Protection and Emergency Response, April 1999
2. Hazardous Installation (Notification and Survey)
Regulations 1978, Schedule of Hazardous
Substances (Courtesy of H.M. Stationary Office)

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I.
Hazardous Installation (Notification and Survey)

Regulations 1978, Schedule of Hazardous


Substances (Courtesy of H.M. Stationary Office)
http://www.opsi.gov.uk/
1
2
3
4
12

100
200
200
200
200
1000
13

14

20
50
50
50
500
5000
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4




0 o
3

300
500

5000
5000
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II.
2.1

2.2
*

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Flammable ?
Explosive ?
Toxic Effects? from releases of Liquids and/or Vapours

GAS
DISPERSION
/ POOLS

FLAMMABLE &
TOXIC EFFECTS

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1.

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2.

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3.

DISPERSION

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4.

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5.

IGNITION

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6.
Day/Night
Wind
Direction
Speed/
Stability
Categories

Time
dependent
ignition
Various risk
indices
Every Case
modelled

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III.
-

-
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3.


Isopleths

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3.1
1. Short Term Exposure Limits (STEL)
-implicit time interval of 15 minutes
2. Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health limit (IDLH)
-implicit interval of 30 minutes
3. Emergency Response Planning Guideline (ERPG)
-concentrations have a 60-minute implied exposure time
The ERPG-1 is the maximum airborne concentration below which it is believed that
nearly all individuals could be exposed for up to 1 hr without experiencing other than
mild transient adverse health effects or perceiving a clearly defined, objectionable odor.
The ERPG-2 is the maximum airborne concentration below which it is believed that
nearly all individuals could be exposed for up to 1 hr without experiencing or developing
irreversible or other serious health effects or symptoms which could impair an
individual's ability to take protective action.
The ERPG-3 is the maximum airborne concentration below which it is believed that
nearly all individuals could be exposed for up to 1 hour without experiencing or
developing life-threatening health effects.
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3.2

1. Pool Fire

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3.2

2. Jet Fire

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3.2

3. BLEVE Fireball

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3.2.

2
(KW/m )
1.6
4.0
5.0
12.5
37.5

(US.EPA Criteria)

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3.2.

(KW/m2)
1.6
4.0
12.5
37.5

() %
1% 50%
99%
500
1300
3200
150
370
930
30
80
200
8
20
50

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3.3.

()
4
- 90%
7
-
14
- ()

35
-

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IV

(Fault Trees)

(Event Trees)

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- Risk Assessment
- Hazard Identification

- Checklist
- What - If Analysis
- HAZOP study (Hazard and Operability Study)
- Fault Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
- Event - tree Analysis
3 .. 2542

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Fault Tree
TOP Event

Fault Event

Basic
Event

Fault Event

Fault Event

Basic
Event

Undeveloped
Event

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Fault Tree
Motor Overheats
TOP

Excessive Current
to Motor

Basic Motor Failure


(Overheated)
1

Basic Power
Supply Failure
(Power Surge)

Switches Fail
to Open
B

Switch 1 Fails
to Open

Switch 2 Fails
to Open

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Footprint - overlaid on map

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BLEVE Radii overlaid on map

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BLEVE Radii overlaid on map

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Accidental Release Modeling


www.epa.gov/ceppo/cameo/

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WHAZAN( World Bank Hazard Analysis)


DEGADIS
SLAB
PHASE
Breeze Haz

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