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HL Biology Probability Lab - Penny Heads or Tails?

# HL Biology Probability Lab - Penny Heads or Tails?

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IB HL Biology probability lab with statistical analysis
IB HL Biology probability lab with statistical analysis

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11/09/2013

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# Title: Probability Lab Date: 2/3/10 Materials: 2 pennies (1shiny, 1 dull) Cardboard box Data Table

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Class Results Heads 1. 40 2. 55 3. 49 4. 51 5. 54 6. 45 7. 50 8. 56 9. 53 10. 54 11. 50 12. 52 13. 54 Observed 663 Expected 650 Tails 60 45 51 49 46 55 50 44 47 46 50 48 46 637 650 H/H 4 9 9 9 11 6 7 10 13 9 12 9 8 130 116 Dull H/Shiny H 8 2 10 7 7 10 13 9 3 12 9 10 8 130 128 Dull T/Shiny H 19 7 8 13 10 13 11 11 15 11 13 7 10 130 148 T/T 9 2 13 11 12 11 9 10 9 8 6 14 14 130 128

* Each number represents each group

30 and .30 and . Omit. Five heads are probable in a series of ten tosses.30 and . 4.Analysis: 1.50 and greater than .52 H/H and T/T Null Hypothesis: There is no statistical difference between the observed and expected values. therefore the results accept the null hypothesis.54 + (637-650)2 650 . 3. x2 = (663-650)2 650 x2 = .50.05 Conclusion: The probability is between . Omit.20 and greater than . Five heads and five tails were observed in the first ten tosses. Heads and Tails: Null hypothesis: There is no significant difference between the observed results and those which would be expected. Ratio: 1:1 Inferred ratio: 1:1 Degrees of Freedom: 1 Value of P: between . Ratio: 1:1 Inferred ratio: 1:1 Degrees of Freedom: 1 Value of P: between . x2 = (130-116)2 + (130-128)2 130 130 x2 = 1. 2.05 Conclusion: The null hypothesis can be accepted.

10 and greater than . 6.Dull H/Shiny T and Dull T/Shiny H Null Hypothesis: There is no statistical difference between the observed and expected values. . 14. 10. Heads of both the pennies appeared 39/52 or ¾ times. The expected probability for the combination of heads on one coin and tails on the other is 50 percent. 9. The fraction of the total number of tosses that heads of dull pennies occurred in is 61/130. This relationship states that the chance that two independent events will both occur is the product of the chances that each will occur separately. x2 = (130-128)2 + (130-148)2 130 130 x2 = 2. Heads of the shiny pennies occurred 33/65 times which is approximately ½. A second important principle of probability concerns the relationship between the probabilities of separate events and the probability of a combination of events. Omit.20 and . Omit. 11.5 5. 12. Ratio: 1:1 Inferred Ratio: 1:1 Degrees of Freedom: 1 Value of P: between . 15. Data concerning heads of a dull penny appear in two columns. Heads of both dull and shiny pennies appear in three columns. 13. This fraction is closest to the sum of the two fractions for heads of one penny at a time. Data concerning heads of a shiny penny occur in two columns. 7. 8.05 Conclusion: The null hypothesis is accepted.

Furthermore. This probability differs than the probability in question 15 because there are more combinations with different possibilities. 18. 17. which state that there’s no significant difference between the observed results and those which would be expected. The probability that the dull penny will be heads and the shiny penny will be tails if the two pennies are tossed together is 25 percent. are mutually exclusive. A third important principle of probability concerns the relationship between the probability of either one of two mutually exclusive events occurring and the individual probabilities of those events. are the same. The probability of each of those different ways occurring is 25 percent. . for example A and B. Yes. The probability of getting heads and tails in any combination of pennies is closest to the difference of the probabilities for getting heads and tails in each of the different ways. The probability that tails will occur on the shiny penny is also 50 percent. This relationship states that if two events. P(A or B) = P(A) + (B) Conclusion: In summary. then the probability that either A or B occurs is the sum of their probabilities. there are other ways than Dull H/Shiny T to get the H/T combination. the probability that heads will occur on the dull penny is 50 percent. the null hypotheses. the class results of this experiment were almost identical to those results of my own. There are two different ways to get the H/T combination on two coins tosses together.16. These two sets of results accurately reflect and mirror each other. When a dull penny and a shiny penny are tosses together.

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