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Q2- 2009

Macro & Tech Themes

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1. Risk Premium – A2P2 Spread calculated by FED continue to move
down which is relatively good sign that the risk in system declines but
it is still elevated compared to levels before the crisis.

2. AAA Asset back index showing no signs of improving which is a bit


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3. Technical picture of S&P 500 is very interesting. Medium Term BUY
signal is generated by EMA20&50 cross. Seasonals are bullish until
mid may.

4. VIX – Volatility slowly moving south supporting stock market.

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5. BRICs are outperforming major indexes in developed world since

dec2008 but still lagging of larger time frame

6. Relative performance S&P500 vs. BRICs vs. CEE

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7. Commodities – SELL OFF mode is over but we doubt that new BULL
market has started.

8. Gold – Everybody loves GOLD ….Are there any BUYERS left 

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9. Crude oil - Correction and sideways into the summer.

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10. US dollar Index – Trendline still holds but for how long.

11. EURUSD – Messy technical picture on daily.

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12. Japanese Yen – 15+% correction from the high. We are leaning to
strong yen on LT horizon but not yet.

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