# IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER APPARATUS AND SYSTEMS, VOL. PAS-89, NO.

2, FEBRUARY 1970

327

Optimal Operation of Multireservoir Systems Using
a Composite Representation
NICOLAOS V. ARVANITIDIS,
MEMBER, IEEE, AND

JAKOB ROSING,

MEMBER, IEEE

algorithms that could determine the optimal operating policy for multireservoir systems within feasible computer times. There are a large number of papers and reports on the subject, but the dimensionality problem has limited these contributions to solutions of one- and two-reservoir systems. Little [1 ] considered the one-reservoir sequential decision problem with variable head and stochastic flows. He used stochastic dynamic programming with two state variables to determine the monthly optimal operation. Ahmed et al. [2], attempting to determine the optimal operation of the hydroelectric power system in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) consisting of approximately 100 dams, investigated two different methods. First decision theory was used to obtain an approximate solution, but this method did not overcome the dimensionality problem. Then the use of a composite representation of the system for determining total hydrogeneration was investigated. Because of the promising results obtained with the latter method, Rosing and Cueva Garza [3] improved the composite representation and used it to obtain an accurate optimal monthly operating policy. A detailed description of the composite model is given in a INTRODUCTION previous paper [4]; the present paper describes the optimal THE CORRECT sequence of monthly operational decisions operating policy resulting from application of the composite concerning the total hydrogeneration appears to be of model to the anticipated 1975 system in the PNW. greater economic significance than the allocation of the total The composite model, in effect, receives, stores, and releases hydrogeneration among the various hydroplants. The reason potential energy; it uses a statistical model for the inflow of for this is that the inflows are uncertain while the share of potential energy and a composite generation function which the total market to be satisfied with hydro is flexible; this latter relates the potential energy released to the actual system genis because, in addition to firm load commitments, the market eration [4]. The model has all the characteristics of a single includes other classes of energy such as displacements of thermal reservoir system, where stochastic dynamic programming is units, industrial interruptible, export and import energies, and readily applicable, and the paper presented here demonstrates peaking exchanges. As a result, substantial savings may be the usefulness of this model in determining the monthly hydroobtained by adjusting the present total hydrogeneration to the generations which maximizes the net revenue or, equivalently, expected future hydrocapability of the system. minimizes the variable cost of operation. The results show that This future capability will depend on the amount of water in the increase in annual expected net revenues resulting from using storage as well as on the expected future inflows. Thus the the optimal operating policy rather than the present rule-curve optimal operation of a multireservoir electric power system is a policy is substantial, and thus that the monthly total hydrotime-sequential decision problem with as many state variables generation is indeed an important decision variable. Moreover, as there are controllable reservoirs and indices for prediction of it is shown here that a combination of rather simple optimizathe streamflows. Past efforts have failed to devise optimization tion techniques with a sound understanding of the basic structure of the problem is sufficient for solving otherwise, nearPaper 69 TP 628-PWR, recommended and approved by the insoluble problems. Power System Engineering Committee of the IEEE Power Group A discussion of the basic theoretical principles of optimal for presentation at the IEEE Summer Power Meeting, Dallas, Tex., is first given, followed by the mathematical formulation operation June 22-27, 1969. Manuscript submitted September 16, 1968; made available for printing April 9, 1969. This research was sup- of the stochastic dynamic programming problem. This includes a ported by the Bonneville Power Administration, U. S. Department short description of the state variables used and an intuitive of Interior, under Contract 14-03-40523 and by the Department of explanation of the optimization technique. Finally, a detailed Engineering-Economic Systems, Stanford University. The authors were with SYSTAN, Inc., Los Altos, Calif. 94022. comparison is made between the optimal operating policy and They are now with INTASA, Palo Alto, Calif. 94306, and the Department of Engineering-Economic Systems, Stanford University, the rule-curve operation for the anticipated 1975 system in the PNW. Stanford, Calif.

Abstract-For a large hydroelectric power system, such as that of the Pacific Northwest, an important operational decision each month is the amount of hydrogeneration. This decision is important because the inflow of the water is uncertain while hydro, with zero marginal cost, can be used not only to satisfy firm load commitments, but also to displace other firm resources or to serve secondary loads. In such a case, the tradeoff between savings at the present and expected benefits in the future is determined mainly by the total hydrogeneration. The use of a composite representation of multireservoir hydroelectric power systems to determine the optimal monthly total hydrogeneration is described. The analytical tool employed is that of stochastic dynamic programming, and the statistical model for the streamflow prediction is based on previous flows and snowpack information. For the anticipated 1975 system in the Pacific Northwest, comparison between the optimal operation introduced here and the presently used rule-curve operation indicates that substantial savings may be obtained, mainly owing to the more uniform displacement of the high marginal cost thermal resources by hydrogeneration.