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Let"me"begin"by"telling"you"a"bit"about"my"background."I m"a"user"experience"designer."I" was"one"of"the"rst"professional"Web"designers."Ive"now"been"designing"Web"sites"for" nearly"20"years."This"is"the"navigaCon"for"a"hot"sauce"shopping"site"I"designed"in"1994."

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Im"proud"of"the"fact"that"16"years"later"they"were"sCll"using"the"same"visual"idenCty."These" were"some"of"the"oldest"pixels"on"the"Web." " I"had"the"privilege"of"designing"the"UI"of"some"of"the"rst"ecommerce"sites,"online"chat" systems,"and"search"engines."I"also"got"to"watch"two"dotcom"crashes"and"saw"many"of"my" clients"fail,"with"years"of"the"work"disappearing"nearly"overnight"

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Since"then"Ive"consulted"on"the"user"experience"design"of"dozens,"maybe"hundreds"of"web" sites."Heres"one"for"credit.com,"who"were"fantasCc"clients"a"couple"of"years"ago."

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Ive"also"worked"on"the"user"experience"design"of"a"lot"of"consumer"electronics"products" from"companies"youve"probably"heard"of."

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Along"the"way"I"wrote"a"couple"of"books"based"on"my"experience"as"a"designer."One"is"a" cookbook"of"user"research"methods,"and"the"second"describes"what"I"think"are"some"of"the" core"concerns"when"designing"networked"computaConal"devices."

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I"also"started"a"couple"of"companies."The"rst,"AdapCve"Path,"is"primarily"focused"on"the" web"and"is"considered"quite"inuenCal."With"the"second"one,"ThingM,"I"got"deep"into" developing"hardware."

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ThingM"primarily"designs"and"manufactures"a"range"of"RGB"LEDs"with"aXached"controllers" for"architects,"industrial"designers"and"hackers."These"have"been"on"sale"for"about"ve" years"and"theyre"used"in"everything"from"ying"robot"prototypes"to"costumes"in"Lady" Gagas"stage"show."

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We"also"spent"some"Cme"exploring"the"potenCal"uses"of"embedded"compuCng"as"a"design" material"for"things"that"could"be"classied"in"the"Internet"of"Things." " On"the"leZ"is"an"RFID"wine"rack"thats"faceted"classicaCon"browser"to"a"cloud\based" service."For"example,"it"can"show"you"all"the"2003"Napa"Cabernet"Sauvignons"which"are" ready"to"drink"and"whose"current"market"price"is"under"$50."On"the"right"is"a"capaciCve" sensing"kitchen"cabinet"knob"that"glows"when"you"touch"it."Its""an"exploraCon"in"making"a" digital"product"that"would"sCll"be"useful"20"years"aZer"it"was"made." "

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In"January"of"this"year"I"joined"PARC"as"a"principal"in"its"InnovaCon"Services"group."Ill"tell" you"more"about"what"we"do"a"liXle"later"in"this"talk."

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But"I"didnt"come"here"to"talk"about"myself.""I"want"to"start"by"talking" about"how"I"believe"the"pracCces"of"product"development"pioneered"by" Web"design"will"change"the"how"we"design"physical"products,"specically" products"that"we"broadly"call"the"Internet"of"Things,"which"wearables" broadly"belong"to."

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My background is mostly in consumer-facing products, so those are the examples Ill use. Lets start by imagining Amazon 7 years from now. It looks like this. Yes, it looks exactly like the Amazon today. It has all of the familiar ways to discover new products, to compare them, to see what people think of them, to see what goes with what. It has wish lists, Gold Boxes, the whole thing. But theres a crucial difference. Instead of Amazon being the front end to a fulfillment system, as it is today, the Amazon of 2020 is the front end to a set of factories.

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The back end doesnt look like UPS, but Ford Motor Company. When you click on on buy you start a manufacturing process at the factory nearest you, instead of a delivery process from a warehouse far away." " Lets"pause"for"a"second"and"think"about"what"could"have"caused"such"an"enormous" transformaCon?" " River"Rouge"photo"by"Lotus"Carroll,"creaCve"commons"hXp://www.ickr.com/photos/ thelotuscarroll/6695794423/q"

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Yes"of"course"it"starts"with"digital"manufacturing"technologies,"such"as"CNC"machines,"the" MakerBot"and"this"Form1"printer"that"just"got"funded"through"Kickstarter."Digital" manufacturing"creates"simultaneous"high"exibility,"distributed"producCon"and"large"scale" in"one"piece"of"inexpensive"equipment."The"machine"you"use"to"prototype"with"can"be"the" machine"you"produce"with."The"cost"of"making"the"rst"one"and"making"the"1000th"one"are" about"the"same."Thus,"with"digital"manufacturing"the"cost"of"making"design"changes"is" small."" " Thats"fantasCc"and"transformaCve,"but"people"have"been"talking"about"it"for"a"long"Cme," so"its"clearly"not"the"only"thing"required"for"the"change."Rapid,"distributed"manufacturing" is"a"necessary,"but"not"sucient"condiCon"for"the"widespread"transformaCon"I"imagine." These"printers"have"been"around"for"a"long"Cmeso"long"that"the"core"patents"started" expiring"in"2009,"which"is"why"MakerBot"exists."If"CNC"machines"were"all"that"was" necessary,"we"would"have"had"this"revoluCon"earlier." " I"think"theres"something"else."

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I"think"that"the"major"change"is"going"to"be"analyCcs,"as"pioneered"by"the"Web." " When"you"order"from"the"Amazon"of"2020"a"counter"is"incremented"that"registers"that" you,"a"human"being"with"a"set"of"well\known"behaviors"and"a"demographic"background," decided"to"buy"this"specic"version"of"this"specic"idea."

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We"can"see"this"already"starCng."Unlike"a"tradiConal"catalog,"where"the"designer"has"very" liXle"understanding"of"who"buys"their"products,"why"they"buy"them"and"when"they"buy" them,"Kickstarter"explicitly"puts"that"knowledge"in"the"hands"of"the"developers."It"provides" analyCcs"about"who"wants"what"youre"oering,"how"they"found"out"about"you,"what" theyre"willing"to"pay"for"it,"and"which"features"people"want."Moreover,"it"provides"the" strongest"signal"of"all,"how"many"people"want"what"youre"selling."UnCl"enough"people" want"a"product,"it"doesnt"exist,"and"while"theyre"voCng"with"their"dollars"they"can"say" exactly"which"variants"of"the"idea"they"want."That"dramaCcally"lowers"the"cost"of"being" wrong,"whichin"product"developmentyou"usually"are."

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Similarly"the"world"of"2020"will"be"a"world"of"ubiquitous"compuCng,"where"nearly"every" product"has"a"small"bit"of"digital"hardware"in"it."Connected"electronics"will"be"like"plasCc"or" aluminum"is"today,"a"material"that"designers"use"to"enhance"the"funcConality"of"that" device."Were"already"in"a"world"of"cloud\connected"thermostats,"scales,"locks"and" pedometers."By"2020,"its"be"the"excepConal"object"thats"NOT"connected"to"the"Internet"in " some"way,"rather"than"the"object"that"is."Everything"from"your"cars"to"your"clothes"will" have"an"informaCon"shadow"in"the"cloud"of"some"sort."

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This"connecCvity"will"allow"the"object"to"track"how"the"product"is"actually"used"and,"with" your"implicit"permission,"send"that"informaCon"back"to"a"central"server,"which"will" aggregate"and"anonymizes"the"results." " Thus"once"you"plug"a"product"in"and"it"begins"phoning"home,"its"makers"can"see"how"you" actually"use"it."When"its"on,"what"buXons"you"never"push,"etc."Your"phone,"word" processor"and"cable"box"already"do"this,"so"its"relaCvely"straighlorward"to"extend"it"to" virtually"every"net\connected"device." " There"are"a"number"of"services"that"will"allow"you"to"set"up"such"cloud\based"data" aggregaCon"and"analyCcs"very"easily."

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Each"of"these"technologies"creates"a"signal"about"what"people"want"to"buy"and"how"they" use"the"things"they"own." " Heres"a"product"called"the"Kickback"Machine"that"logs"all"Kickstarter"projects"so"that"you" can"see"not"just"what"was"successful,"butto"some"extenthow"it"was"successful." " Heres"a"chart"from"sen.se,"that"logs"sensor"data"from"products."Human"use"is"also"a"kind"of" sensor"data,"so"we"can"collect"data"about"which"funcCons"you"use"and"which"you"dont" use."

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The"combinaCon"of"desire"and"usage"analyCcs"create"signals"for"designers"and"developers" that,"when"coupled"with"cheap"methods"for"making"small"numbers"of"products,"will"allow" designers"to"create"mulCple"versions"of"an"idea"and"deploy"them"through"sales"channels" that"provide"desire"analyCcs"to"see"how"each"version"performs"in"the"marketplace"and"in" actual"use."Every"device"you"buy"will"provide"the"designer"informaCon"about"what" combinaCon"of"features"you"want,"and"what"price"youre"willing"to"pay"for"them."When" you"use"it,"you"will"be"providing"informaCon"about"what"is"useful"and"what"is"not." " That"should"seem"familiar,"because"its"how"much"of"Web"design"currently"happens."Every" Cme"you"use"Google,"youre"parCcipaCng"in"something"like"12"experiments"that"are" focused"on"how"you"use"their"products"and"how"those"products"can"best"guide"you"to"click" on"an"adverCsement"for"something"youll"buy." " Now,"rather"than"depending"solely"on"experience"and"intuiCon,"as"product"design"does" right"now,"this"process"will"give"designers"informaCon"about"which"product"variaCon"is" preferred,"who"prefers"it"and"how"people"use"it"when"they"get"it." " When"done"like"this,"product"design"and"invenCon"becomes"much"more"quanCtaCve," essenCally"much"more"scienCc,"as"designers"make"and"test"hypotheses"about"peoples" preferences,"interests"and"behavior"by"creaCng"designs,"then"observing"what"people"do" with"them.""

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Understanding"why"people"buy"things"and"how"they"use"them"was"always"a"goal"of"tradiConal"product"design,"but"one"that"was"very" hard"to"reach."TradiConal"product"development"is"where"we"get"techniques"such"as"test"markeCng,"focus"groups,"and"conjoint"analysis." These"barely"dent"the"surface,"however,"and"in"pracCce,"an"annual"mass"release"of"a"completely"nished"product"IS"the"primary"form"of" user"research"in"most"companies."Unfortunately"the"data"that"comes"back"is"a"mess."Its"such"a"mulCvariate"problem"that"its"almost" impossible"for"designers"to"see"the"signal"through"the"noise"to"understand"what"makes"a"product"successful,"and"what"doesnt."Failure" devolves"into"nger"poinCng"and"success"is"almost"impossible"to"replicate."People"start"believing"in"magical"engineers,"designers"and" marketers."When"this"noisy"feedback"mechanism"is"coupled"with"the"high"cost"of"failure"we"get"the"ultraconservaCve"product"design"of" today,"which"moves"so"slowly"and"is"so"prone"to"disrupCon"from"small"players." " However,"when"you"have"rapid,"cheap,"distributed"low\volume"manufacturing"AND"real\Cme"analyCcs"you"have"a"new"way"of"designing" products."You"can"take"those"Industrial"Age"design"processes"that"took"years"to"test"hypotheses,"and"you"can"speed"them"up"by"orders"of" magnitude." " Image:"hXp://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tailns\evoluCon\1957\1959.jpg"

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It"allows"you"to"actually"follow"the"idea"of"concept"convergence"where"you"rst"generate" lots"of"ideas,"then"you"apply"a"test"to"see"which"ones"are"interesCng,"throw"out"the"rest" and"generate"more"ideas"based"on"the"ones"that"are"interesCng." " TradiConally"each"of"these"iteraCons"would"take"years"and"you"could"only"test"one"concept" at"once."With"desire"and"use"analyCcs"we"will"now"be"able"to"do"it"in"months,"or"in"weeks," or"days."This"means"we"as"designers,"as"inventors,"can"explore"ideas"that"are"much"less" conservaCve,"much"less"based"on"what"came"before."Giving"rapid"quanCtaCve"feedback" frees"designers"imaginaCons,"since"rather"than"pumng"all"eggs"in"one"basket,"they"can" contemplate"many"possible"future"possibiliCes"with"the"knowledge"that"the"ones"that"dont" work"will"be"weeded"out."

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Tight loop iteration between an idea and inexpensive market validation of that idea is the core of Eric Ries and Steve Blanks Lean Startup approach. The core goal of the Lean Startup approach is to rapidly identify WHO your customers are, and what they find valuable, useful or interesting, so that if your assumptions are wrongwhich they usually areyou can find that out quickly and change course, and when theyre right, you can follow them and expand on them. The Lean Startup approach has produced an enormous amount of product innovation in both Web services and apps. My vision--MY hypothesis--is that its possible to do this with ANYTHING by applying the ideas, practices and technologies we developed for the Net to everything else.

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You"can"see"its"essenCally"already"happening"if"you"look"at"the"low"end"of"commodity" technology"markets."Heres"a"selecCon"of"cheap"wristwatch"cellphones."You"can"see"that" there"are"just"a"couple"PCB"shapes,"a"couple"of"case"shapes"and"several"colors,"and"theyre" mixed"and"matched."What"Im"proposing"is"that"that"soon"youll"be"able"to"do"this"kind"of" market"tesCng"without"having"to"actually"build"a"single"product."

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Another"interesCng"example"of"how"analyCcs"is"already"informing"product"design"is"quirky." Quirkys"business"model"is"largely"based"on"crowdsourcing"and"collecCvely"evaluaCng"idea" to"create"desire"analyCcs"for"funcConality"and"desirability."

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They"not"only"provide"desire"analyCcs,"

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But"also"about"the"people"who"are"parCcipaCng."Wouldnt"it"be"great"to"be"able"to"idenCfy" specic"early"adopter"audiences"and"use"them"to"generate"ideas"for"novel"applicaCons"of" technologies?"

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The"recent"GE/Quirky"collaboraCon"now"includes"a"third"partner,"Electric"Imp,"who"will"be" providing"the"cloud\based"infrastructure"for"Quirky"GE"products"to"have"usage"analyCcs"in" all"their"products,"too."

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These"analyCcs"will"feed"directly"into"the"design"tools"that"people"will"use."Cloud\based" collaboraCve"tools"for"designing"products"are"sCll"in"their"infancy,"but"theyre"rapidly" coming"online."Tools"like"upverter"and"Fritzing"allow"people"to"collaborate"on"electronics" design,"ModKit"allows"for"simple"cloud\based"rmware"programming,"while"Sunglass," Ponoko"and"Thingiverse"help"with"the"physical"design."Eventually"well"have"tools"for" making"products"like"we"have"Github,"Basecamp,"WebEx,"Balsamiq,"etc."for"collaboraCng" remotely"on"designing"Web"sites."Say"your"power"generaCng"shoes"are"hugely"popular"in" Atlanta,"but"people"are"complaining"about"the"feel"of"the"sole"and"you"need"a"mechanical" engineer"to"look"at"your"heel"gears."Well,"theres"one"available"in"Thailand"who"will"have"an" updated"set"of"gears"for"you"tomorrow"morning,"so"that"your"industrial"designer"in"Latvia" can"tweak"the"heel"to"t"the"new"mechanism."Tomorrow"the"new"shoe"can"be"for"sale"and" you"can"see"if"people"buy"them"with"the"new"heel"design"and"if"the"new"mechanism"aects" the"power"generaCon." " When"designers"and"inventors"have"data,"and"shared"representaCons"of"ideas"created"by"a" collaboraCve"design"tools,"they"can"start"to"rapidly"interpreCng"all"of"the"analyCcs"as" product"designs,"sending"the"new"designs"to"the"sales"channel"as"soon"as"the"design"is" done."It"then"doesnt"have"to"physically"exist"unCl"the"rst"person"buys"it."

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So 2020 will look and work exactly like our world today, when seen from the outside. It will be driven by the same motivations. Youll still have the thrill of finding something awesome when youre bored surfing the Internet and then making it yours by buying it. However, behind the scenes nearly everything will have changed. The power shift will mean that design and production cycles will be tight, and led by designers working with analytics as one core tool and rapid manufacturing as the other. Like the flurry of apps we have today, discovery and positioninghow you get people to find your idea, not just what the idea iswill become important. Itll be a new, complex, dynamic and ultimately profoundly different environment that shift how we think about products in the same way that the Web has changed how we think about information.

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So,"let"me"pull"all"this"together."To"me,"the"whole"ecosystem"looks"like"this."Here"come"the"buzz"words,"so"excuse"me"in"advance." Digital"fabricaCon,"we"know"what"that"is."It"will"allow"us"to"make"all"kinds"of"things"in"small"batches." Ubiquitous"CompuCng"and"the"Internet"of"Things"is"leading"to"everyday"objects"that"send"a"stream"of"telemetry"when"we"bring" them"home."They"have"an"informaCon"shadow"in"the"cloud"that"can"be"data"mined." That"data"is"crunched"in"the"cloud"to"create"analyCcs"about"peoples"desires"and"behavior." And"nally,"cloud\based"design"tools"will"allow"designers"and"engineers"to"collaborate"on"the"distributed"development"of"physical" products."

This"is"my"ecosystem"vision:"a"world"where"design"directly"drives"product"creaCon,"and"where"data"informs"design."This"is"a"world"where" products"are"made"in"small"numbers"only"when"they"are"requested."They"are"made"locally,"with"local"materials"and"workers,"while"at"the" same"Cme"being"able"to"use"design"and"engineering"talent"from"anywhere"on"earth."In"other"words,"they"use"the"best"qualiCes"of"both" atoms"and"bits:"atoms"are"available"everywhere,"bits"travel"fast."Designers"in"this"vision"add"hypotheses"tesCng"against"the"actual"market" to"their"toolbox"of"design"methods." " In"the"full"pipe"dream,"this"means"we"use"fewer"natural"resources,"take"full"advantage"of"talented"people"wherever"they"are,"create"only" products"in"large"quanCCes"that"people"need"and"want,"meet"the"needs"of"Cny"niche"audiences,"and"let"designers"and"inventors"let"their" imaginaCons"run"free"to"pursue"their"wildest"ideas."Whew!"

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Thank"you"

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