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Low-Carbon Development

Low-Carbon Development

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The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world’s 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapid expansion of the level of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors, such as power, oil and gas, agriculture and transport. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon foot-print, emissions of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades.

This study finds that there are several options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives of vision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels, and with domestic benefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. These benefits include cheaper and more diversified electricity sources; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry; more productive and climate –resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. The study outlines several actions that the Federal Government could undertake to facilitate the transition towards a low carbon economy, including enhanced governance for climate action, integration of climate consideration in the Agriculture Transformation Agenda, promotion of energy efficiency programs, scale-up of low carbon technologies in power generation (such as renewables an combined cycle gas turbines), and enhance vehicle fuel efficiency.
The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world’s 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapid expansion of the level of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors, such as power, oil and gas, agriculture and transport. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon foot-print, emissions of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades.

This study finds that there are several options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives of vision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels, and with domestic benefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. These benefits include cheaper and more diversified electricity sources; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry; more productive and climate –resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. The study outlines several actions that the Federal Government could undertake to facilitate the transition towards a low carbon economy, including enhanced governance for climate action, integration of climate consideration in the Agriculture Transformation Agenda, promotion of energy efficiency programs, scale-up of low carbon technologies in power generation (such as renewables an combined cycle gas turbines), and enhance vehicle fuel efficiency.

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Publish date: May 24, 2013
Added to Scribd: Jun 04, 2013
Copyright:AttributionISBN:9780821399255

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9780821399255

GHG emissions were calculated from 2010 to 2035 for land use changes and
other factors that take place up to 2025—that is, the emissions consequences of
agricultural development up to 2025 is being estimated, with allowance for a
10-year capitalization period thereafter, but further sectoral changes after 2025
are not included in the calculation.
While emissions decrease over time, agriculture remains a net source of GHG
in the reference scenario, and emits about 2.7 billion tons of carbon dioxide
equivalent (t CO

2e) during the entire period from 2010 to 2035 (that is, an aver-

age of 1.2 t CO

2e/hectare/yr). Annual emissions reach 25 million metric tons

(Mt) CO

2e from an initial 161 Mt CO

2e in 2010. Table 4.3 shows total annual
emissions at the beginning (2010) and end (2035) of the simulation period, and
figure 4.4 illustrates the overall net emissions pathway and the evolution over
time of the four main emissions categories:

• Crops including annuals, perennials, and paddy rice;
• Land use changes that occur as a result of deforestation, afforestation, or
non-forest land use change;
• Livestock and pasturelands; and
• Agricultural inputs that involve GHG emissions associated with fertilizer
consumption, infrastructure construction, and fuel consumption.

The main reason for this improvement is a reduction in emissions from land
use change, as land use patterns stabilize and in particular deforestation is halted,
although 50 percent of secondary forest area is still lost by the end of the model-
ing period, leaving only 3 percent of secondary forest coverage for the country in
2035. Over this period pasturelands (−16 percent compared to 2010), fallow
(−67 percent) and other land classes (−30 percent) are also reduced to make
room for cropland expansion (+45 percent). However, because croplands are
better managed with less use of fire on perennial plantations, and with improved
seeds and water management on irrigated surfaces, they provide a net sink
of −44 Mt CO

2e/year by 2035. The results show that by improving land

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