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Low-Carbon Development

Low-Carbon Development

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The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world’s 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapid expansion of the level of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors, such as power, oil and gas, agriculture and transport. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon foot-print, emissions of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades.

This study finds that there are several options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives of vision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels, and with domestic benefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. These benefits include cheaper and more diversified electricity sources; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry; more productive and climate –resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. The study outlines several actions that the Federal Government could undertake to facilitate the transition towards a low carbon economy, including enhanced governance for climate action, integration of climate consideration in the Agriculture Transformation Agenda, promotion of energy efficiency programs, scale-up of low carbon technologies in power generation (such as renewables an combined cycle gas turbines), and enhance vehicle fuel efficiency.
The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world’s 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapid expansion of the level of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors, such as power, oil and gas, agriculture and transport. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon foot-print, emissions of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades.

This study finds that there are several options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives of vision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels, and with domestic benefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. These benefits include cheaper and more diversified electricity sources; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry; more productive and climate –resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. The study outlines several actions that the Federal Government could undertake to facilitate the transition towards a low carbon economy, including enhanced governance for climate action, integration of climate consideration in the Agriculture Transformation Agenda, promotion of energy efficiency programs, scale-up of low carbon technologies in power generation (such as renewables an combined cycle gas turbines), and enhance vehicle fuel efficiency.

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Publish date: May 24, 2013
Added to Scribd: Jun 04, 2013
Copyright:AttributionISBN:9780821399255

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02/05/2016

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9780821399255

Source: NNPC 2011.
Note: AG = associated gas; NAG = non-associated gas.

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Oil, mln bbl/day

Gas/flared volumes, m3 billions

Flared gas

Gas production (AG & NAG)

Oil production

The Oil and Gas Sector

61

Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5

the assumptions for the two oil and gas production regimes—JV and PSC—are
different. In JV fields, flaring is projected to decrease over the study period from
the current 37 percent of associated gas (AG) production to 5 percent by 2035.
This reflects the high level of legacy flaring in these older fields. PSC fields, rela-
tively recently developed, are assumed to have had gas gathering infrastructure
incorporated in their design, and therefore to be flaring only 5 percent of the AG
currently.

However, emissions from all other sources are forecast to increase. Major
drivers are the expected growth in on-site use of gas to fuel power genera-
tion and other processes, particularly in LNG and gas-to-liquid (GTL)
plants, as well as increases in gas production to meet domestic and export
demand.

While flaring sources are clearly identified mitigation targets, no specific data
are available on the fields and facilities in the Nigerian oil and gas industry. It is
possible, therefore, that some emission mitigation options discussed in the study
analysis may have already been completely or partially implemented. If this is the
case, the emission estimates in the reference case scenario, and the potential for
their reduction, may be overstated.
Based on the production projections and the assumptions described in
the following sections, emissions for the next 25 years from the oil and gas

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