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Low-Carbon Development

Low-Carbon Development

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The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world’s 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapid expansion of the level of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors, such as power, oil and gas, agriculture and transport. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon foot-print, emissions of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades.

This study finds that there are several options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives of vision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels, and with domestic benefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. These benefits include cheaper and more diversified electricity sources; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry; more productive and climate –resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. The study outlines several actions that the Federal Government could undertake to facilitate the transition towards a low carbon economy, including enhanced governance for climate action, integration of climate consideration in the Agriculture Transformation Agenda, promotion of energy efficiency programs, scale-up of low carbon technologies in power generation (such as renewables an combined cycle gas turbines), and enhance vehicle fuel efficiency.
The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world’s 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapid expansion of the level of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors, such as power, oil and gas, agriculture and transport. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon foot-print, emissions of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades.

This study finds that there are several options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives of vision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels, and with domestic benefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. These benefits include cheaper and more diversified electricity sources; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry; more productive and climate –resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. The study outlines several actions that the Federal Government could undertake to facilitate the transition towards a low carbon economy, including enhanced governance for climate action, integration of climate consideration in the Agriculture Transformation Agenda, promotion of energy efficiency programs, scale-up of low carbon technologies in power generation (such as renewables an combined cycle gas turbines), and enhance vehicle fuel efficiency.

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Publish date: May 24, 2013
Added to Scribd: Jun 04, 2013
Copyright:AttributionISBN:9780821399255

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02/05/2016

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9780821399255

Source: Modeled emissions based on vehicle fleet estimates and emissions factors from EFFECT model.

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Freight training

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128

The Transport Sector

Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5

Recommendation: Strengthen and Coordinate Institutional Mandates at All
Levels of Government

Actions other than adding more roads need to be taken to focus transport devel-
opment along a more sustainable pathway. However, particularly in transport,
these long-term planning processes need to recognize and integrate a wide
spectrum of constituencies, including all levels of government, with careful atten-
tion to building ownership and consensus among key sectors, such as services and
manufacturing, transport, and agriculture; civil society; and private-sector groups.
The explosive growth in the demand for passenger mobility is centered in cities
and requires a coordinated long-term consensus among local stakeholders, while
technology choices and long-distance travel is mainly within the domain of the
FGN and state governments.

Recommendation: Improve Transport Data

Policy Recommendation: Strengthen Nigeria-Specific Transport Data

To develop a low-carbon plan to reflect actual conditions in Nigeria, rather than
using estimates adapted from other countries, it will be important to collect
additional data to fill in critical gaps both at the national and local-area level.
Detailed data on the vehicle fleet, vehicle activity, and the movement of goods
and people need to be maintained and periodically updated to enable judicious
policy decisions in a changing environment. It is virtually impossible to improve
something that is not being measured, and the data currently available in this
sector are particularly sparse.

Policy Recommendation: Give Priority to Infrastructure Development that
Avoids Lock-In

As Nigeria’s urban population increases, the infrastructure design and develop-
ment decisions that will be taken over the coming years will directly affect the
long-term sustainability of its cities. Infrastructure investments have a long life;
design decisions made centuries ago are still evident in many European towns
and cities. If cities develop around the needs of private motorization they will be
“locked-in” to a high energy-consuming development trajectory that will be
difficult to change at a later date.

Policy Recommendation: Evaluate the Costs of all Externalities of the Fuel
Subsidy

Gasoline subsidies until recently have kept the price of gasoline well below
market levels (around 65 naira/liter), in contrast to diesel, which is sold at close
to market levels (currently 170 naira/liter). This has skewed the vehicle fleet
toward small, inefficient vehicles, by making it more difficult for large diesel-
fueled buses and trucks to compete. The anticipated eventual removal of the
gasoline subsidy will narrow the cost differential with the cost of diesel and allow
the Nigerian fleet to come into line with neighboring countries in terms of the
mix between petrol and diesel vehicles. If the variable cost of private transport
operation remains low due to subsidies, it will be difficult to promote the

The Transport Sector

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Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5

mass-transit and freight solutions needed to enable the country’s development
trajectory—including quality of life improvements.

Policy Recommendation: Actively Promote Formal Public
Transport in All Cities

Maintaining present public transport shares in the face of exploding private
vehicle ownership will be an impossible task unless a paradigm shift occurs in
urban design and development. As more families become private transport
owners (cars and two-wheelers), the challenge becomes one of providing them
with alternatives to use for their routine daily travel.

Policy Recommendation: Give Priority to Efficient Freight Handling and
Transport as Essential to Growth

Efficient freight movement is essential for the country to achieve its growth
goals. This should include expansion of rail services, road infrastructure, vehicle
technology, logistical planning, and fleet management. Significant savings (and a
reduction in GHG emissions) can be achieved by leapfrogging to solutions with
advantages demonstrated in more advanced countries. Making this happen needs
direct investment from the FGN and creating the enabling environment that
permits the private sector to adopt modern solutions.

Recommendation: Vehicle Technology

The combined impact of population growth and car ownership increases is
expected to escalate the private car population from 4.7 million to over
20 million over the forecast period of the study. Evidently this would be
catastrophic if all these were aging and high polluting vehicles near the end of
their useful lives.

Therefore the recommendation is to track European standards with a 15-year
lag. Over time, this lag should be reduced, and eventually eliminated, as Nigeria
achieves its goal of becoming the world’s 20th largest economy. The application
of an effective vehicle inspection and maintenance system in major cities could
have a major impact on lowering tailpipe and GHG emissions.

Alternative Fuels

Many countries, notably Pakistan and India, have successfully promoted the use
of CNG as a transport fuel to combat air quality problems and reduce GHG
emissions from this sector, while lowering operating costs. It is recommended
that a detailed study be undertaken to identify urban areas suited to develop an
infrastructure for deployment of a network of CNG filling stations.

references

FGG (Federal Government Gazette). 2011. “National Environmental (Control of
Vehicular Emissions Petrol and Diesel Engines) Regulations.” Federal Government
Gazette 47 (May 17).

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Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5

SLA (State Licensing Authority). 2005. Lagos State Licensing Office and Lagos State
Central Statistics Office (MEPRB), Internal Statistic Book on Newly Registered
Motor Vehicles by Type of Vehicle and by Year of Registration: 1990–2005.

UITP/UATP (Union Internationale des Transports Publics/Union Africaine des Transports
Publics). 2010. Report on Statistical Indicators of Public Transport Performance in Africa,
http://www.uitp.org/knowledge/pdf/Report_on_statistical_indicators_of_
publictransportperformanceinS-SA.pdf.

World Bank. 2010. World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://
data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.

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Summary of Findings and
Recommendations across Sectors

This chapter summarizes the key findings on emissions for the reference and
low-carbon scenarios; and on benefits and costs of the mitigation options
included in the latter. It provides general recommendations that cut across sec-
tors for overcoming organizational and institutional barriers to reconcile growth
with low-carbon development. (Chapters 4–7 contain more specific recommen-
dations for each sector.)

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