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Low-Carbon Development

Low-Carbon Development

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The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world’s 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapid expansion of the level of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors, such as power, oil and gas, agriculture and transport. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon foot-print, emissions of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades.

This study finds that there are several options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives of vision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels, and with domestic benefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. These benefits include cheaper and more diversified electricity sources; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry; more productive and climate –resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. The study outlines several actions that the Federal Government could undertake to facilitate the transition towards a low carbon economy, including enhanced governance for climate action, integration of climate consideration in the Agriculture Transformation Agenda, promotion of energy efficiency programs, scale-up of low carbon technologies in power generation (such as renewables an combined cycle gas turbines), and enhance vehicle fuel efficiency.
The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world’s 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapid expansion of the level of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors, such as power, oil and gas, agriculture and transport. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon foot-print, emissions of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades.

This study finds that there are several options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives of vision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels, and with domestic benefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. These benefits include cheaper and more diversified electricity sources; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry; more productive and climate –resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. The study outlines several actions that the Federal Government could undertake to facilitate the transition towards a low carbon economy, including enhanced governance for climate action, integration of climate consideration in the Agriculture Transformation Agenda, promotion of energy efficiency programs, scale-up of low carbon technologies in power generation (such as renewables an combined cycle gas turbines), and enhance vehicle fuel efficiency.

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Publish date: May 24, 2013
Added to Scribd: Jun 04, 2013
Copyright:AttributionISBN:9780821399255

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The reference scenario projects a doubling of emissions from the four sectors
from 2010 to 2035 (figure 8.1). Over the same period, the population is
projected to grow by 82 percent and the real gross domestic product (GDP) is
projected to increase 6.5 times.
This doubling of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions results from an important
structural change: In 2010, over half of the nation’s emissions originated from
agriculture and land use change (53 percent), with oil and gas contributing
30 percent of the total. The power and road transport sectors contributed
8 percent and 9 percent, respectively.
By 2035, in the reference scenario, the mix is projected to be radically differ-
ent: Agriculture, forestry, and land use change constitute only 4 percent of the
total. Oil and gas drop from 30 to 12 percent. The power sector becomes the
largest contributor at 56 percent, followed by road transport at 28 percent
( figure 8.2).

The principal causes of these structural changes are as follows:

• For the agriculture sector, a dramatic reduction in net emissions is due to a
slow-down in land use changes and to negative emissions from changes in
annual, perennial, and wet rice crops (see figure 4.4).
• For the oil and gas sector, increased emissions from on-site gas combustion are
counterbalanced by a reduction in emissions from flaring (figure 5.3).

cHApter 8

132

Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors

Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Agriculture and land use change

Oil and gas

Transport

Power sector

Mt CO2e

2

0

1

0

2

0

1

5

2

0

2

0

2

0

2

5

2

0

3

0

2

0

3

5

Figure 8.1 Annual co

2e emissions in the reference scenario

Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.

Figure 8.2 reference scenario: sector composition of GHG emissions in 2010 and 2035

percent

Power sector,
8

Oil and gas,
30

Agriculture and land
use change,
53

Transport,
9

a. 2010

figure continues next page

Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors

133

Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5

• For the electricity and transport sectors, dramatic growth in emissions reflects
growing electricity generation (figure 6.7) and volume of road transport
( figure 7.5) as a result of increases in population and income per capita.

emissions and mitigation potential for the low-carbon scenario

For each sector, the study team identified a set of low-carbon interventions (miti-
gation options.) As described chapter 3, interventions were evaluated according
to a series of criteria, including the magnitude of potential emission reductions,
as well as technical, economic, and institutional feasibility. The goal was to assess
whether the different options can help reduce carbon emissions while meeting
Nigeria’s ambitious goals for economic development.
As result of this process, the teams selected some 30 options for inclusion
in the low-carbon scenario. These measures would allow the Vision 20: 2020
development goals to be reached with minimal change in annual GHG
emissions, increasing from 303 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent
(Mt CO

2e/year) in 2010 to 320 Mt CO

2e in 2035 (figure 8.3).
The low-carbon scenario would result in a 50 percent reduction of emissions
in the terminal year relative to the reference scenario. The reduction in cumula-
tive emissions over the whole simulation period would be some 3.7 billion tons
of CO

2e (table 8.1).
The largest contribution to the total mitigation potential comes from the
power sector (some 1.9 billion tons), with smaller but significant contributions

Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.

Power sector,
56

Oil and gas,
12

Transport,
28

Agriculture and land
use change,
4

b. 2035

Figure 8.2 reference scenario: sector composition of GHG emissions in 2010 and 2035 (continued)

percent

134

Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors

Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5

from oil and gas (0.7 billion tons), agriculture (0.6 billion), and transport
(0.5 billion tons). The differences over time between the emissions in the refer-
ence scenario and in the low-carbon scenario are shown in figure 8.4 as the “miti-
gation wedges,” reducing emissions from the reference case (top blue line) to
low- carbon case (dotted area at the bottom).
Sectors differ significantly in time distribution of their abatement potential
(figure 8.5): Agriculture and land use account for the largest share of emissions
abatement in the earlier years, when most of the land use changes might take
place. In the middle of the period, the oil and gas sector provides considerable
abatement opportunities. In the second part of the simulation period, land use
changes slow down, and opportunities for expanding renewable energy (RE)
generation increase. This reflects, in part, projections that costs of renewable
technologies will become economically competitive with fossil fuel in terms of
levelized cost. By the end of the period, the power sector offers 60 percent of the
total abatement potential.

Figure 8.3 Annual co

2e emissions in the low-carbon scenario

Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Power sector

Agriculture and land use change

Oil and gas

Transport

2

0

1

0

2

0

1

5

2

0

2

0

2

0

2

5

2

0

3

0

2

0

3

5

Mt CO2e

table 8.1 low-carbon scenario: end-Year emissions and cumulative emissions Abatement
by sector

Sector

GHG emissions, billion tons CO

2e/year in 2035

Emissions reduction
2010–35 billion tons CO

2e

Reference

Low-carbon

Power sector

0.37

0.16

1.92

Oil and gas sector

0.08

0.04

0.75

Road transport

0.19

0.13

0.45

Agriculture and LUC

0.03

−0.02

0.65

Total

0.67

0.31

3.77

Source: Calculations based on data sources listed in the chapter 3 references.
Note: LUC = land use change.

Summary of Findings and Recommendations across Sectors

135

Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5

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