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t G: Impact of the Northern line extension on the Northern line and Kennington Station states that The Northern line extension (NLE) has been developed so that it meets [the Mayors] vision for London and fits with the future transport network whereas in fact there is a risk that it will cause important sections of the Northern Line to cease to be a viable transport solution, due to serious over-crowding. Chapter 6 of the NLE TWA Environmental Statement shows that the Bank branch of the Northern Line from Clapham Common to Moorgate is currently in the worst category for over-crowding, with more than 4 people standing per square metre at peak times. The NLE is predicted to carry 8,200 passengers from the new Nine Elms station to Kennington at which point trains from Kennington to Bank are expected to carry only 1,200 of these passengers (14.6%). Current observation of the numbers of passengers changing from a Northbound, Bank branch train at Kennington would indicate that considerably more than 14.6% of passengers opt to remain on the Bank branch and TfL has yet to make a convincing argument as to why future passengers originating on the NLE would contradict the current trend. In fact TfL claims that once the NLE is running there will be only a 3% increase in peak traffic heading North on the Bank branch and state that "the NLE results in only a small increase in usage on the Bank branch but a larger increase on the Charing Cross branch. Analysis shows that these additional passengers will not significantly effect crowding on the existing Northern line" However in the same document they state " At Kennington, forecasts suggest an increase in the number of passengers interchanging between the Bank and Charing Cross branches". In fact, presumably with that in mind, they now propose " To improve passenger flows between the platforms we are seeking powers to construct up to two additional cross passages linking each pair of platforms" Contrast the supposed 3% increase in traffic with a proposed potential increase of cross platform access by 50%. TfL further state "As can be seen, although the increased demand does lead to higher flows on these links, the increases themselves are small and the overall flows still fall within the capacity of the line. As such, it is considered that these additional flows can be accommodated without having a detrimental impact on the line or the wider network." These are additional flows on a line already within the worst category for overcrowding. The picture is confusing to say the least. But it becomes even more confusing when compared with previous passenger estimates within the
same project. The SKM VNEB Transport Study Report, published December 2009 and once posted on the now defunct NLE website, predicted additional peak-time passengers heading North on the Bank branch to be a more credible 7,000. However, in August 2010 the Multicriteria Assessment of Route Options (NATA) report, published on the same website, suddenly reduced that number to 1300. The current estimate is 1200.
If the Northern Line is to remain a viable transport option for existing users it is vital that the NLE does not introduce additional demand that cannot be supported by the existing upstream infrastructure. The figures above show that TfLs latest predicted demand is not corroborated by their proposed action to increase cross platform access at Kennington. Equally, there have now been 3 different predictions of those numbers with the difference between the highest and the lowest being of a magnitude of more than 500%. These figures and the rationale behind them need to be scrutinised.