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NOTES
1. Short Position as %
of Free FIoat
This represents the latest reported short position divided by the Free Float Market Capitalisation of the stock. The
Free Float Market Capitalisation includes the actual number of shares less those held by strategic owners and hence
is a better representation of the number of shares available to be traded on the exchange.
2. Short SaIes as %
Stock avaiIabIe to
short
This measure compares the amount of outstanding short positions (reported to ASIC) with the amount of stock
available to be borrowed (reported to the ASX). Note that the stock available to be borrowed is only reported once a
quarter. Some participants may not be reporting correctly to either ASIC (less likely) or the ASX (almost certainly, as
there are a large number of inconsistencies) so this data should be used with caution.
3. Change in short
Position
This measure shows the current shorted shares as a percentage of the total free floated shares LESS the number of
short shares as a percentage of the total free floated shares reported either one month or one week prior.
4. FY1 EPS forecast This column shows the change in analyst forecasts for the first forecast year earnings per share.
5. Days to cover The number of days of trading it would take short sellers to completely cover positions based on the average of the
last six months of trading.
6. Stock Ioaned not
short
This measure calculates the difference between the amount of stock borrowed (reported to the ASX and calculated as
the maximum between the borrowed and loaned number of shares) but not yet shorted as a percentage of the total
free float shares of the stock.
This data should be used with caution. Data showing N/A means the borrowed and loaned numbers are not
consistent with the open short position data and so likely have not been reported accurately.
SHORT SALES DATA
There are three primary sources of short sales data:
ASX reported short saIes: This only reports short selling (not covering) and so while
the most timely is of use.
ASX reported Iending and borrowing: This data shows the amount that is borrowed
and the amount that has been lent on a daily basis, and also has quarterly data on the
total amount of stock available to be lent. While useful and more timely than the ASIC
data there are clearly inconsistencies in the data where the amount reported
borrowed and the amount reported lent frequently does not match, and additionally it
is also frequently less than the amount reported short sold which suggests caution
should be used with the data.
ASIC reported short saIes position: This data comes from investors to ASIC and is
the gross amount of open short positions, however it is reported with a four-day lag.
We use this as our primary source of information, although note the timeliness is an
issue. There may also be data integrity issues with investors reporting incorrectly to
ASIC, although we suspect that this is less of an issue for ASIC than it is for the ASX.
QUANTITATIVE MODELS
There is only about a year of reliable short sales data, and the key data series has
had some changes in definitions which makes quantitative conclusions about the
success or otherwise of trading short sales data hard to make.
Preliminary tests indicate that short term trading off changes in short sales positions is
unlikely to be consistently profitable, although with a four day lag in data that is not a
huge surprise.
Theabsolutelevelofshortsellingdoesntseemtobeaconsistentindicator.
Trends in short positions over period of two weeks or longer seem to be more
profitable, however with such a short time frame we are wary of making too many
claims. We will follow this data and provide updates in the future.
Equities Research - Short and Stocky 22
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