This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?

Probability

• A numerical measure of the likelihood of occurrence of an event • Provides description of uncertainty

one and only one outcome will occur Experiment Flip a coin Play a game Roll a dice Inspect a part Experimental outcome Head. 4. 1.Experiments • A process that generates well-defined outcomes • At each repetition of experiment. 2. 3. tie Win. side 2) lose. fail . 6 Pass. tail (side 1. 5.

Tail} – Roll a die: S = {1.Sample Space • Sample space is the set of all experimental outcomes – Flip a coin: S = {Head. 6} . 5. 2. 4. 3.

Assigning Probabilities • Must adhere to two conditions: – The probability of an outcome: 0 ≤ P(Ei) ≥ 1 for all i Ei = i th Experimental outcome – The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes: ∑ P(Ei) = 1 .

Methods of assigning Probabilities 1. n= number of outcomes . Classical Method – When it is reasonable to assume that all outcomes are equally likely: ¾ P(Ei)= 1/n.

Methods of assigning Probabilities 2.05 . Relative Frequency Method – Relative frequency based on limited repetition of the experiment ¾ In a sample of 200 parts 10 are defective P (defective) = 10/200 = 0.

Subjective Method – Used when the classical or the relative frequency method are not possible.Methods of assigning Probabilities 3. or as a support for these methods – Probability is determined as the degree of belief that an outcome will occur based on available information and past experience – Assignment must ensure the two conditions of assignment are applicable .

Events and Their Probabilities • An event is a collection of outcomes (sample points) – Roll a die experiment: define event A as outcome is an even number • P (event) = sum of probabilities of sample points ¾ P (A) = P(2) + P (4) + P (6) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = ½ .

Complement of an Event .

Union of Two Events .

Intersection of Two Events .

Addition Law .

Mutually Exclusive Events • Events that are mutually exclusive do not share any sample points in common (probability of the intersection is zero) • Therefore: ¾P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B) Becomes Î P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B) .

.

Conditional Probability .

Independent Events • Two events are independent if P (B/A) = P (B) or P (A/B) = P (A) [The probability of one does not affect the probability of the other] • Are mutually exclusive events independent events? .

Example Suppose we have the following data for why students consider joining a college (Question 13) Reason for Joining quality Cost Other Totals Full time Part time Totals 421 400 821 393 593 896 76 46 122 890 1039 1929 .

Events Event student is full time Event student is part time Event reason is Quality Event reason is Cost Event reason is Other F T Q C O .

00 Status .06 Joint probabilities Marginal probabilities Totals 0.46 0.21 0.04 (F) Part time 0.22 0.20 0.31 0.54 1.Joint Probability Table Reason for Joining Quality Cost Other (Q) (C) (O) Full time 0.43 0.02 (T) Totals 0.46 0.

Probabilities of Events P (F) = P (T) = P (Q) = P (C) = P (O) = .

Probabilities of Events Student is FT Î ? P (Reason is Quality) Student is PT Î ? P (Reason is Quality Are T and Q independent? .

Multiplication Law • Multiplication law is use to find the intersection between two events P (A ∩ B) = P (A/B) P(B) P (A ∩ B) = P (B/A) P(A) • If A and B are independent then P (A ∩ B) = P (A) P(B) .

) . a test.Bayes’ Theorem • Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probabilities of events based on new information (a sample. etc.

98 P (B/A2) = 0.35 – G = Event part is good – B = Event part is bad P (B/A1) = 0.98 • Suppose we select a bad part: What is the probability that it came from supplier 1? P (A1/B) What is the probability that it came from supplier 2? P (A2/B) .02 P (G/A1) = 0.02 P (G/A2) = 0.Example • A factory receives parts from two suppliers – A1 = Event part is from supplier 1 Î P (A1) = 0.0.65 – A2 = Event part is from supplier 2 Î P (A2) = 0.0.

.

Probability Tree for Two-supplier Example .

.

00 0.0305 1.0305 = 0.0175/0.65 0.0000 .0130/0.Bayes’ Theorem: Tabular Procedure (2) Prior Event Prob Ai A1 A2 (1) (3) Cond Prob (4) Joint Prob P(Ai ∩ B) (5) Posterior Probability P(Ai /B) P(Ai) P(B/Ai) 0.02 0.0130 0.05 1.5738 P(B) = 0.0305 = 0.35 0.0175 0.4262 0.

- rp-d101_2008-10 (1).pdf
- 126351392-Design-Calculation-for-Pipe-Supports.pdf
- Assessing.mechanical.damage.in.offshore.pipelines.Two.case.studies (1).pdf
- MAE345Lecture17.pdf
- MAE345Lecture13.pdf
- NN-examples-S3.pdf
- PLUSYM.pdf
- CrashTests and the HIC.pdf
- 3-5-1-b-hvac-plumbing-drawings.pdf
- 031512 WE PPT.pdf
- ENGR1101(firstclass-2006).ppt
- Air Push.pdf
- Intro to Engineering.ppt
- Energy Transfer.pdf
- Sink or Swim.pdf
- Bolted Connections.pdf
- Chap9_slides.pdf
- Chap6_slides.pdf
- Chap1_slides.pdf
- Assigments-chapter9.pdf
- Chap6_slides.pdf
- 20131125_1 (1).pdf
- ENGR1101(firstclass-2006)
- Engineering and You
- Week 10 - Project 3 - Nonlinear Static Stress

- Probability.pdf
- 01 Probability Basics
- SBE8-PP04
- 2303 Probability Bayes F12
- Probability Basics
- Probability
- Probability
- Probability
- probability_business statistics
- Chapter 3
- SChapter 2
- probability
- OPRE 6301-SYSM 6303 Chapter 06 -Students
- njc probability lecture notes student edition
- Presentation Chapter 7 MTH1022 Rev#01
- QMB 2100 Basic Business Statistics - Spring 2014 - Practice Test #2B
- Probablility Notes Week 3
- Probability
- 11.0Probability
- 05 Probability
- Basic Concepts in Probability
- Add Math SBA
- Module II Probability
- Probability]
- Class XI math
- 05 29 Lecture Brief
- Chapter 4
- Stat 32 - Chapter 04
- Ken Black QA ch04
- Probability
- 01 Probability Basics

Are you sure?

This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?

We've moved you to where you read on your other device.

Get the full title to continue

Get the full title to continue reading from where you left off, or restart the preview.

scribd