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October 20, 2010

The Binomial Distribution

Bernoulli Trials

Deﬁnition A Bernoulli trial is a random experiment in which there are only two possible outcomes - success and failure.

1

Tossing a coin and considering heads as success and tails as failure.

The Binomial Distribution

Bernoulli Trials

Deﬁnition A Bernoulli trial is a random experiment in which there are only two possible outcomes - success and failure.

1

Tossing a coin and considering heads as success and tails as failure. Checking items from a production line: success = not defective, failure = defective.

2

The Binomial Distribution

Checking items from a production line: success = not defective. failure = no operator free. 1 Tossing a coin and considering heads as success and tails as failure.Bernoulli Trials Deﬁnition A Bernoulli trial is a random experiment in which there are only two possible outcomes . Phoning a call centre: success = operator free. failure = defective. 2 3 The Binomial Distribution .success and failure.

Bernoulli Random Variables A Bernoulli random variable X takes the values 0 and 1 and P (X = 1) = p P (X = 0) = 1 − p . The Binomial Distribution . It can be easily checked that the mean and variance of a Bernoulli random variable are E (X ) = p V (X ) = p (1 − p ).

each trial has only two possible outcomes labelled as success and failure.Binomial Experiments Consider the following type of random experiment: 1 The experiment consists of n repeated Bernoulli trials . The Binomial Distribution .

each trial has only two possible outcomes labelled as success and failure.Binomial Experiments Consider the following type of random experiment: 1 The experiment consists of n repeated Bernoulli trials .the outcome of any trial has no eﬀect on the probability of the others. 2 The Binomial Distribution . The trials are independent .

Binomial Experiments Consider the following type of random experiment: 1 The experiment consists of n repeated Bernoulli trials . The probability of success in each trial is constant which we denote by p . The trials are independent .the outcome of any trial has no eﬀect on the probability of the others. 2 3 The Binomial Distribution .each trial has only two possible outcomes labelled as success and failure.

written bin(k . p ). n. k .The Binomial Distribution Deﬁnition The random variable X that counts the number of successes. The probability mass function of a binomial random variable X with parameters n and p is The Binomial Distribution . in the n trials is said to have a binomial distribution with parameters n and p .

p ). . n. . n. The probability mass function of a binomial random variable X with parameters n and p is f (k ) = P (X = k ) = for k = 0. 1. n k p (1 − p )n−k k The Binomial Distribution . 2. . written bin(k . in the n trials is said to have a binomial distribution with parameters n and p . 3.The Binomial Distribution Deﬁnition The random variable X that counts the number of successes. . k .

. in the n trials is said to have a binomial distribution with parameters n and p . The probability mass function of a binomial random variable X with parameters n and p is f (k ) = P (X = k ) = for k = 0. .The Binomial Distribution Deﬁnition The random variable X that counts the number of successes. . n. k . . written bin(k . p ). counts the number of outcomes that include exactly k successes and n − k failures. 2. n. n k n k p (1 − p )n−k k The Binomial Distribution . 3. 1.

3. The probability of heads on any toss is 0. Calculate: (i) P (X = 2) (ii) P (X = 3) (iii) P (1 < X ≤ 5).Examples Example A biased coin is tossed 6 times. The Binomial Distribution .Binomial Distribution . Let X denote the number of heads that come up.

Binomial Distribution .324135 2 The Binomial Distribution .3)2 (0.Examples Example (i) If we call heads a success then this X has a binomial distribution with parameters n = 6 and p = 0.3. P (X = 2) = 6 (0.7)4 = 0.

7)4 = 0.18522.Binomial Distribution .3)3 (0. 3 6 (0.3.324135 2 (iii) We need P (1 < X ≤ 5) The Binomial Distribution . P (X = 2) = (ii) P (X = 3) = 6 (0.7)3 = 0.3)2 (0.Examples Example (i) If we call heads a success then this X has a binomial distribution with parameters n = 6 and p = 0.

3.324 + 0.185 + 0.Binomial Distribution . 3 6 (0.578 The Binomial Distribution .18522.01 = 0.Examples Example (i) If we call heads a success then this X has a binomial distribution with parameters n = 6 and p = 0.3)2 (0. P (X = 2) = (ii) P (X = 3) = 6 (0.3)3 (0.7)3 = 0.7)4 = 0.324135 2 (iii) We need P (1 < X ≤ 5) P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) + P (X = 4) + P (X = 5) = 0.059 + 0.

The day’s production is acceptable provided no more than 1 DVD player fails to meet speciﬁcations.Example Example A quality control engineer is in charge of testing whether or not 90% of the DVD players produced by his company conform to speciﬁcations. (i) What is the probability that the engineer incorrectly passes a day’s production as acceptable if only 80% of the day’s DVD players actually conform to speciﬁcation? (ii) What is the probability that the engineer unnecessarily requires the entire day’s production to be tested if in fact 90% of the DVD players conform to speciﬁcations? The Binomial Distribution . the entire day’s production has to be tested. the engineer randomly selects a batch of 12 DVD players from each day’s production. Otherwise. To do this.Binomial Distribution .

Example Example (i) Let X denote the number of DVD players in the sample that fail to meet speciﬁcations. p = 0.275 The Binomial Distribution . In part (i) we want P (X ≤ 1) with binomial parameters n = 12.2)0 (0. P (X ≤ 1) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) 12 12 = (0.8)12 + (0.8)11 1 0 = 0.206 = 0.2.2)1 (0.069 + 0.

9)12 + (0.1.1)0 (0.341.9)11 0 1 = 0.659 So P (X > 1) = 0. The Binomial Distribution . p = 0. P (X ≤ 1) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) 12 12 = (0.1)1 (0.Example Example (ii) We now want P (X > 1) with parameters n = 12.

The Binomial Distribution .Mean and Variance 1 Any random variable with a binomial distribution X with parameters n and p is a sum of n independent Bernoulli random variables in which the probability of success is p . X = X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn .Binomial Distribution .

V (Xi ) = p (1 − p ). 2 The mean and variance of each Xi can easily be calculated as: E (Xi ) = p . X = X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn . The Binomial Distribution .Mean and Variance 1 Any random variable with a binomial distribution X with parameters n and p is a sum of n independent Bernoulli random variables in which the probability of success is p .Binomial Distribution .

V (X ) = np (1 − p ). 3 Hence the mean and variance of X are given by (remember the Xi are independent) E (X ) = np .Binomial Distribution .Mean and Variance 1 Any random variable with a binomial distribution X with parameters n and p is a sum of n independent Bernoulli random variables in which the probability of success is p . V (Xi ) = p (1 − p ). X = X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn . The Binomial Distribution . 2 The mean and variance of each Xi can easily be calculated as: E (Xi ) = p .

What is the probability that X will exceed its mean by more than 2 standard deviations? The Binomial Distribution .Binomial Distribution . what is the probability that no more than 2 bits in a packet are corrupted? If 6 packets are sent over the channel.Examples Example Bits are sent over a communications channel in packets of 12.1 and such errors are independent. If the probability of a bit being corrupted over this channel is 0. what is the probability that at least one packet will contain 3 or more corrupted bits? Let X denote the number of packets containing 3 or more corrupted bits.

Then in the ﬁrst question. The Binomial Distribution .Binomial Distribution . we want P (C ≤ 2) = P (C = 0) + P (C = 1) + P (C = 2).Examples Example Let C denote the number of corrupted bits in a packet.

P (C = 0) = 12 (0.Binomial Distribution .9)12 = 0.282 0 The Binomial Distribution .Examples Example Let C denote the number of corrupted bits in a packet. we want P (C ≤ 2) = P (C = 0) + P (C = 1) + P (C = 2). Then in the ﬁrst question.1)0 (0.

Then in the ﬁrst question.1)2 (0.282 0 12 (0.9)11 = 0. we want P (C ≤ 2) = P (C = 0) + P (C = 1) + P (C = 2).23 2 The Binomial Distribution .1)1 (0.9)10 = 0.Binomial Distribution .377 1 12 (0.Examples Example Let C denote the number of corrupted bits in a packet. P (C = 0) = P (C = 1) = P (C = 2) = 12 (0.9)12 = 0.1)0 (0.

we want P (C ≤ 2) = P (C = 0) + P (C = 1) + P (C = 2).889.1)2 (0.377 + 0.Binomial Distribution .9)10 = 0.282 0 12 (0. Then in the ﬁrst question.377 1 12 (0.282 + 0. The Binomial Distribution .Examples Example Let C denote the number of corrupted bits in a packet.23 2 So P (C ≤ 2) = 0.9)12 = 0.1)0 (0.9)11 = 0.23 = 0. P (C = 0) = P (C = 1) = P (C = 2) = 12 (0.1)1 (0.

889 = 0.111.Examples Example The probability of a packet containing 3 or more corrupted bits is 1 − 0.Binomial Distribution .111. X can be modelled with a binomial distribution with parameters n = 6. p = 0. The probability that at least one packet will contain 3 or more corrupted bits is: The Binomial Distribution . Let X be the number of packets containing 3 or more corrupted bits.

111.111.889)6 = 0. 0 The Binomial Distribution .Examples Example The probability of a packet containing 3 or more corrupted bits is 1 − 0.494.111)0 (0.889 = 0. Let X be the number of packets containing 3 or more corrupted bits. p = 0. The probability that at least one packet will contain 3 or more corrupted bits is: 1 − P (X = 0) = 1 − 6 (0.Binomial Distribution . X can be modelled with a binomial distribution with parameters n = 6.

889 = 0. The Binomial Distribution .111) = 0.Examples Example The probability of a packet containing 3 or more corrupted bits is 1 − 0. The probability that at least one packet will contain 3 or more corrupted bits is: 1 − P (X = 0) = 1 − 6 (0.111)(0.889) = 0. p = 0.111. X can be modelled with a binomial distribution with parameters n = 6.Binomial Distribution .494.111. Let X be the number of packets containing 3 or more corrupted bits.77.111)0 (0.666 and its standard deviation is σ = 6(0. 0 The mean of X is µ = 6(0.889)6 = 0.

this is equal to The Binomial Distribution .2).Binomial Distribution . As X is discrete.Examples So the probability that X exceeds its mean by more than 2 standard deviations is P (X − µ > 2σ ) = P (X > 2.

As X is discrete.Examples So the probability that X exceeds its mean by more than 2 standard deviations is P (X − µ > 2σ ) = P (X > 2. this is equal to P (X ≥ 3) The Binomial Distribution .Binomial Distribution .2).

111)2 (0.506 + .37 1 6 (0. 2 P (X = 1) = P (X = 2) = So P (X ≥ 3) = 1 − (.Binomial Distribution .Examples So the probability that X exceeds its mean by more than 2 standard deviations is P (X − µ > 2σ ) = P (X > 2. The Binomial Distribution .2).889)5 = 0.115) = 0.115.009. As X is discrete.111)1 (0. this is equal to P (X ≥ 3) 6 (0.37 + .889)4 = 0.

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