IS WHY THE COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACH MORE COMPATIBLE THAN THE CLASSICAL SIR MODEL IN DENGUE TRANSMISSION?

Background: Dengue, which is transmitted predominately by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, has become a global problem since 1950s and is endemic in more than 100 countries. There are about 100 million people infected yearly. Here in Sri Lanka, the disease usually occurs as epidemics following monsoon seasons. Since no specific medical treatment or vaccine is available, one possible way is to control transmission of dengue disease. Aims: The aim of this work is to realize why the complex system approach is more compatible with the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases than classical approach is. Methods: We have carried out a simulation process by using SIR-model with fixed and varying the effect of incubation period (EIP). The Runge-Kutta Method was used to solve the SIR-system (namely ode45 solver in MATLAB). Results: Although the trajectory of infectious human population of classical model with fixed EIP is convergent (ie. the disease will die out), it is not the case in the model with varying EIP. Conclusions: There is a well-known fact that the classical approach is not suitable for decision making processes for controlling diseases. The reason this is not true is that because of classical models used with fixed parameters (but generally parameters are varied with climatic factors) to study the transmission dengue disease. The results simulated by using the classical approach were very far from the reality. However, considering the complex system approach we are able to attain better results for transmission of disease than we do with the classical model approach.

Master your semester with Scribd & The New York Times

Special offer for students: Only $4.99/month.

Master your semester with Scribd & The New York Times

Cancel anytime.