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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE WEDNESDAY, MAY 13, 2009, AT 8:30 A.M.

EDT Timothy Winters / Aneta Erdie Service Sector Statistics Division (301) 763-2713 CB09-69

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES April 2009
Notice of Revision: Monthly retail sales and inventories were revised based on the results of the 2007 Annual Retail

Trade Survey. The Annual Revision of Monthly Retail and Food Services showing revised data can be found on our website at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/benchmark/2009/html/annrev09.html. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $337.7 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 10.1 percent (±0.7%) below April 2008. Total sales for the February through April 2009 period were down 9.2 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The February to March 2009 percent change was revised from -1.2 percent (±0.5%) to -1.3 percent (±0.3%). Retail trade sales were down 0.4 percent (±0.7%)* from March 2009 and 11.4 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 36.4 percent (±1.5%) from April 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 20.7 percent (±2.3%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
From Previous M onth
2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 -18 -20 -22

From Previous Year

February Total

March Ex Auto Auto

April Gen Mer

Total

Ex Auto

Auto

Gen Mer

The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for May is scheduled to be released June 11, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986). * The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.

Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)

Not Adjusted NAICS code
1

Adjusted2 2008 2009 Apr.3 (a) Mar. (p)
338,930 283,640 300,837 94,132 55,290 48,730 (NA) (NA) 7,879 (NA) (NA) 8,565 6,716 1,849 24,400 20,349 48,780 43,489 3,512 21,019 17,469 27,107

Kind of Business

4 Month Total
% Chg.

2009 Apr.3 (a)
335,188 276,364 297,332 (*) 58,824 52,152 (*) (*) 7,307 (*) (*) 7,184 (*) (*) 27,617 (*) 47,402 42,362 (*) 21,073 (*) 26,664

2008 Feb. (r)
343,438 287,013 304,889 95,912 56,425 49,775 (NA) (NA) 8,066 (NA) (NA) 9,287 7,411 1,876 24,586 20,546 48,702 43,450 3,503 20,887 17,316 28,001

2009 Retail & food services, total ……………………………….
1,286,827

2008
-10.0 -6.9 -11.3 (*) -22.7 -25.0 (*) (*) -14.3 (*) (*) -6.9 (*) (*) -11.2 (*) 0.1 -0.5 (*) 2.8 (*) -34.6

Mar. (p)
333,990 274,807 295,440 87,455 59,183 52,531 40,605 6,652 7,572 4,255 3,317 7,933 6,145 1,788 23,456 19,433 47,253 42,489 3,136 21,481 17,836 26,348

Feb. (r)
304,056 252,560 269,015 82,918 51,496 45,544 35,304 5,952 7,219 4,296 2,923 8,481 6,759 1,722 18,457 15,944 44,201 39,800 2,897 19,843 16,485 23,801

Apr.

Mar.

Apr. (r)
375,614 305,724 337,996 97,725 69,890 63,406 (NA) (NA) 9,137 (NA) (NA) 9,462 7,553 1,909 27,412 23,517 48,923 43,879 3,394 20,284 16,798 41,632

Mar. (r)
374,845 302,814 337,621 97,419 72,031 65,563 (NA) (NA) 9,187 (NA) (NA) 9,388 7,468 1,920 27,038 23,143 48,454 43,492 3,380 20,089 16,637 41,379

370,144 296,029 332,714 88,721 74,115 67,527 53,160 6,588 8,525 4,663 3,862 8,153 6,435 1,718 30,843 25,375 46,805 42,168 3,126 20,000 16,563 41,674

373,587 337,677 296,836 282,279 335,581 299,516 93,025 (*) 76,751 70,283 56,311 6,468 8,838 4,935 3,903 8,703 6,833 1,870 25,492 21,616 48,436 43,753 3,106 20,692 17,136 40,386 55,398 48,831 (NA) (NA) 7,840 (NA) (NA) 8,322 (*) (*) 24,467 (*) 48,301 43,007 (*) 21,094 (*) 26,479

Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) … 1,065,968 Retail …..……………………………. 1,139,189 (*) GAFO4………………………....……...……...………….. Motor vehicle & parts dealers ……. 220,859 Auto & other motor veh. dealers . 195,612 New car dealers ………………. (*) Auto parts, acc. & tire stores…… (*) Furniture & home furn. stores …… Furniture stores ………………….. Home furnishings stores ………..
29,526 (*) (*)

441 4411, 4412 44111

4413
442 4421 4422 443 44311, 13 44312 444 4441 445 4451 4453 446 44611 447 448

Electronics & appliance stores …… 32,239 Appl., T.V. & camera……………… (*) Computer & software stores……. (*) Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers……………………. Building mat. & sup. dealers …… Food & beverage stores……………. Grocery stores ………………….. Beer, wine & liquor stores ……… Health & personal care stores ……. Pharmacies & drug stores ……… Gasoline stations …………………… Clothing & clothing accessories stores …………………………….….. Men's clothing stores …………… Women's clothing stores ……….. Family clothing stores …………… Shoe stores ……………………… Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores………………………… General merchandise stores………. Department stores (ex. L.D.)…….. Department stores (incl. L.D.)5…… Other general merch. stores…. .. Warehouse clubs & supercenters…………………. All oth. gen. merch. stores…… Miscellaneous store retailers …….. Nonstore retailers ………………….. Elect. shopping & m/o houses …. Food services & drinking places …
88,448 (*) 187,485 168,828 (*) 83,061 (*) 101,494

60,997 (*) (*) (*) (*)

-6.1 (*) (*) (*) (*)

16,559 (*) (*) (*) (*)

15,903 653 2,848 6,244 2,077

14,930 589 2,343 5,687 1,930

17,077 806 3,355 6,303 2,222

17,814 773 3,308 6,654 2,302

17,337 (*) (*) (NA) (*)

17,427 (S) 2,918 (NA) 2,164

17,940 (S) 2,947 (NA) 2,224

18,551 (S) 3,292 (NA) 2,293

18,660 (S) 3,246 (NA) 2,222

44811 44812 44814 4482 451

25,521 180,854 54,903 (*) (*) (*) (*) 35,070 93,635 (*) 147,638

-2.2 0.5 -6.7 (*) (*) (*) (*) -4.9 -5.8 (*) 1.7

6,258 47,048 14,817 (*) (*) (*) (*) 9,090 22,306 (*) 37,856

6,439 46,742 14,306 14,716 32,436 28,822 3,614 9,079 24,051 16,645 38,550

5,727 43,640 13,127 13,495 30,513 27,188 3,325 8,570 22,650 15,118 35,041

6,409 45,620 15,099 15,559 30,521 27,001 3,520 9,298 24,195 16,576 37,430

6,637 47,978 15,904 16,386 32,074 28,496 3,578 9,184 24,670 15,980 38,006

7,268 49,784 15,903 (*) (*) (*) (*) 9,624 23,602 (*) 38,161

7,243 49,857 15,939 (NA) 33,918 30,086 3,832 9,634 23,636 16,933 38,093

7,305 50,122 16,020 (NA) 34,102 30,209 3,893 9,643 23,925 16,948 38,549

7,392 49,794 16,941 (NA) 32,853 29,096 3,757 9,912 25,607 17,412 37,618

7,366 49,442 16,921 (NA) 32,521 28,813 3,708 9,805 24,782 16,803 37,224

452 4521 4521 4529 45291 45299 453 454 4541 722

(*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available. (S) Suppressed. (a) Advance estimate. (p) Preliminary estimate. (r) Revised estimate.

(1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

Table 2. Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Percent Change1
Apr. 2009 Advance from -Mar. 2009 (p) Apr. 2008 (r) Mar. 2009 Preliminary from -Feb. 2009 (r) Mar. 2008 (r) Feb. 2009 through Apr. 2009 from -Nov. 2008 Feb. 2008 through through Jan. 2009 Apr. 2008

NAICS code

Kind of Business

Retail & food services, total ………………………………..
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) …. Retail ………………………..……….
441 4411, 4412 442 443 444

-0.4
-0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.5 -2.8 0.3 -1.0 -1.1 0.4 -2.3 -0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2

-10.1
-7.7 -11.4 -20.7 -23.0 -14.2 -12.0 -10.7 -1.3 -2.0 4.0 -36.4 -6.5 -1.7 0.0 -6.1 -2.9 -7.8 1.4

-1.3
-1.2 -1.3 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 -7.8 -0.8 0.2 0.1 0.6 -3.2 -2.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -1.2 -1.2

-9.6
-6.3 -10.9 -23.2 -25.7 -14.2 -8.8 -9.8 0.7 0.0 4.6 -34.5 -6.6 -1.7 0.8 -5.8 -1.7 -4.6 2.3

-0.6
-0.1 -0.8 -2.9 -3.2 -2.7 -2.6 -2.4 -0.6 -1.0 1.5 -2.9 2.3 0.8 0.7 -1.4 4.5 -0.4 1.1

-9.2
-6.2 -10.5 -22.1 -24.5 -13.4 -7.3 -10.2 0.2 -0.4 4.0 -34.0 -5.1 -1.0 0.9 -6.0 -1.8 -4.7 2.6

Motor vehicle & parts dealers ……… Auto & other motor veh. dealers … Furniture & home furn. stores ……… Electronics & appliance stores ……. Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers……………………… Food & beverage stores……………… Grocery stores ……………………. Health & personal care stores ……… Gasoline stations ……………………. Clothing & clothing accessories stores ……………………….………… Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores…………………………. General merchandise stores………… Department stores (ex. L.D.)……… Miscellaneous store retailers ……… Nonstore retailers ……………………. Food services & drinking places …..
(r) Revised estimates

445 4451 446 447 448

451

452 4521 453 454 722

(p) Preliminary estimates

(1) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Survey Description
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

U.S. Department of Commerce U.S. Census Bureau Washington, D.C. 20233

FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID Bureau of the Census PERMIT NO. G-58

Official Business
Penalty for Private Use, $300

Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is –0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.

Table 3. Estim ated M easures of Sam pling Variability and Revision to Advance Estim ates
(Estim ates are show n as percents and are based on data from the Advance M onthly Retail T rade Survey and M onthly R etail Trade Survey)
M edian M edian standard error (1) for Percent change Previous M o. to Current M o. Previous Qtr. to Current Q tr. Current M o. to sam e M o. Last Yr. Revision for m onthto-m onth change Average revision
(2)

NAICS Code

Kind of B usiness

CV

(1)

for

Current M o. (% )

M edian absolute revision

441
4411, 4412

442 443 444 445 4451 446 447 448 451 452
4521

453 454 722

Retail & food services, total … … … … … … ..… … … … … … … . T otal (excl. m otor vehicle & parts) .. Retail … ..… … … … … … … … … … .. M otor vehicle & parts dealers … … .. Auto & other m otor veh. dealers . Furniture & hom e furn. stores… … . Electronics & appliance stores … .. Building m aterial & garden eq. &… . supplies dealers… … … … … … … … Food & beverage stores… … … … … . G rocery stores … … … … … … … .. Health & personal care stores … … G asoline stations … … … … … … … .. Clothing & clothing accessories stores … … … … … … … … … … … … .. Sporting goods, hobby, book & m usic stores… … … … … … … … … .. G eneral m erchandise stores… … … . D epartm ent stores (ex. L.D .)… … M iscellaneous store retailers … … .. Nonstore retailers … … … … … … … .. Food services & drinking places ..

0.7 0.6 0.7 2.1 2.3 2.9 1.5 2.6 0.9 0.9 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 4.4 1.7 1.9

0.3 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.7 2.1 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 1.0 0.9

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.5 2.2 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 3.6 1.2 1.4

0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.2 0.5

0.2 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 1.5 0.6 0.6

(1)

Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation or holiday or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median revisions are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

(2)

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