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MassLive.com/CBS 3 Springfield poll 07-12-13

MassLive.com/CBS 3 Springfield poll 07-12-13

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the final tables for a MassLive.com/CBS 3 Springfield poll released Saturday, July 13, 2013 asking registered voters in Springfield how they plan to vote in Tuesday's referendum on the host community agreement between the city and MGM Resorts International for a proposed $800 million resort casino in the South End
the final tables for a MassLive.com/CBS 3 Springfield poll released Saturday, July 13, 2013 asking registered voters in Springfield how they plan to vote in Tuesday's referendum on the host community agreement between the city and MGM Resorts International for a proposed $800 million resort casino in the South End

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07/14/2013

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Western New England University Polling Institute Springfield Telephone Survey Conducted for MassLive.

com, The Republican Newspaper and Television Station WSHM, CBS 3, Springfield (July 8-11, 2013) TABLES As you may know, Springfield residents will vote on July 16th on a referendum regarding MGM Resorts International’s plans to build a casino in Springfield. Do you think you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the referendum on July 16th?

Likelihood of Voting on Casino Referendum Has already voted by absentee ballot (Vol.) 1%

Definitely vote July 8 –11, 2013 Registered voters

Probably vote

Probably not vote*

Definitely not vote*

Don’t know / Refused (Vol.)* 3%

N

73%

15%

4%

4%

452

* Respondents who answered probably not vote, definitely not vote, and don’t know / refused proceeded to demographic questions for use in weighting the data.

1

If the referendum were held today, would you vote for the casino proposal or against the casino proposal? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean more toward voting for the casino proposal or more toward voting against the casino proposal? (The response options “for the casino proposal” and “against the casino proposal” were rotated in random order in the initial and follow-up questions. Initial preferences and preferences of leaning voters in the follow-up question were combined in the table below. Three respondents said they had already cast an absentee ballot in the referendum, and indicated how they voted. Those responses are included in the percentages below and in the table that presents initial preferences without leaners.) Voter Preferences for the Casino Proposal (Includes Leaners) For the proposal July 8 – 11, 2013 Party Registration Likely voters Democrat Unenrolled Republican Gender Male Female White / NonHispanic Black / NonHispanic Hispanic 18-34 35-44 45-59 60 and older High school or less Some college College graduate 55% 60% 51% 43% 57% 53% 47% 70% 75% 72% 61% 54% 50% 62% 58% 46% Against the proposal 35% 30% 40% 42% 36% 34% 43% 24% 15% 24% 30% 33% 40% 30% 35% 42% Don’t know / Undecided 8% 8% 8% 11% 6% 10% 8% 5% 8% 4% 9% 10% 8% 7% 6% 10% Refused 2% 2% 1% 5% 1% 3% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% N* 401 220 136 43 176 225 235 70 52 52 33 131 185 143 122 125

Race

Age

Education

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

2

Initial Voter Preferences for the Casino Proposal (Without Leaners) For the proposal 51% 54% 49% 41% 55% 47% 44% 61% 70% 66% 55% 50% 47% 60% 52% 41% Against the proposal 32% 29% 36% 38% 34% 31% 40% 23% 11% 22% 30% 31% 36% 24% 32% 42% Wouldn’t vote 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Don’t know / Undecided 15% 16% 13% 17% 10% 19% 14% 14% 17% 12% 15% 16% 15% 14% 15% 15% Refused 2% 2% 1% 5% 1% 3% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% N* 401 220 136 43 176 225 235 70 52 52 33 131 185 143 122 125

July 8 – 11, 2013 Party Registration

Likely voters Democrat Unenrolled Republican

Gender Race

Male Female White / Non-Hispanic Black / Non-Hispanic Hispanic 18-34 35-44 45-59 60 and older High school or less Some college College graduate

Age

Education

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

3

Are you very sure about your choice regarding the casino proposal, or might you change your mind before the election? Asked of the 357 likely voters who expressed a preference in response to the initial casino question or the follow-up measure of preferences among leaning voters. The three respondents who said they had already voted by absentee ballot did not receive this question.

Very Sure About Choice or Might Change Mind Very Sure July 8 – 11, 2013 Position on Casino Likely voters Casino supporters and leaners Casino opponents and leaners 85% 87% 82% Might Change Mind 13% 11% 17% Don’t know/ Refused 2% 2% 1% N* 357 218 139

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to100 percent due to rounding.

4

What is the most important factor to you in deciding to vote for the casino proposal? Asked of the 220 likely voters who said they had voted for the casino proposal using an absentee ballot, would vote for the proposal, or who were leaning toward voting for the proposal. Respondents answered in their own words, and interviewers coded the open-ended responses using the following list.

Most Important Factor in Deciding to Vote For the Casino Proposal

The casino would bring jobs to Springfield The casino would provide additional money to city government The casino would bring additional customers to other businesses in Springfield The casino would provide a place to gamble The casino would provide new restaurants, shops and a hotel The casino would provide new places to see entertainment MGM Resorts International has promised to make improvements to streets and sidewalks downtown MGM Resorts International has promised to provide resources to improve public safety downtown Neighborhood and civic groups have endorsed the proposal Other (specify) Don/t know / Refused N

67% 14% 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 3% 220

Column percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

5

What is the most important factor to you in deciding to vote against the casino proposal? Asked of the 140 likely voters who said they had voted against the casino proposal using an absentee ballot, would vote against the proposal, or who were leaning toward voting against the proposal. Respondents answered in their own words, and interviewers coded the open-ended responses using the following list.

Most Important Factor in Deciding to Vote Against the Casino Proposal

Gambling is immoral / sinful The casino would increase crime downtown The casino would cause traffic problems downtown The casino would take away business from existing restaurants, shops and hotels The casino’s shows would take away customers from other performing arts organizations in the area Casinos lead to or worsen gambling addictions Casinos take advantage of people Respondent likes casinos, but would rather see the casino located some place other than Springfield Casinos struggle in a bad economy A casino won't solve the city's problems Other (specify) Don’t know / Refused N

13% 25% 5% 7% 1% 8% 5% 12% 7% 4% 7% 6% 140

Column percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

6

Thinking back over the past month, has anyone from MGM Resorts International or a group supporting the casino proposal spoken to you by telephone or in person and asked you to vote in favor of the casino? Contact With Someone from MGM Resorts International or a Group Supporting the Casino Proposal Yes July 8 – 11, 2013 Likely voters 31% No 67% Don’t know/ Refused 2% N 401

Thinking back over the past month, has anyone from a group opposing the casino proposal spoken to you by telephone or in person and asked you to vote against the casino? Contact With Someone from a Group Opposing the Casino Proposal Yes July 8 – 11, 2013 Likely voters 9% No 90% Don’t know/ Refused 1% N 401

Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

7

Did the contact make you more likely to vote for the casino, less likely to vote for the casino, or did the contact have no effect on your decision? Asked of the 139 likely voters who said they been contacted by MGM Resorts International or groups supporting or opposing the casino proposal.

Effects of Contact on Plans to Vote for the Casino Proposal More likely to vote for the proposal July 8 – 11, 2013 Likely voters Casino supporters Position on Casino and leaners Casino opponents and leaners 6% 11% 1% Less likely to vote for the proposal 10% 3% 20% Had no effect on decision 82% 85% 79% Don’t know / Refused 2% 2% 0%

N*

139 64 63

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to100 percent due to rounding.

8

The following two questions rotated in random order in the survey. If a casino opens in Springfield, how likely would you be to go to the casino to gamble? Would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?

Likelihood of Visiting a Casino in Springfield to Gamble Don’t know / Refused (Vol.) 2% 2% 0% 3% 1% 2% 1% 4% 2% 3% 4% 0% 0% 2% 4% 2% 3% 2%

Very likely July 8 – 11, 2013 Position on Casino Likely voters Casino supporters and leaners Casino opponents and leaners Democrat Unenrolled Republican Gender Race Male Female White / NonHispanic Black / NonHispanic Hispanic 18-34 35-44 45-59 Education 60 and older High school or less Some college College graduate 19% 31% 6% 18% 22% 17% 23% 16% 15% 25% 29% 21% 21% 18% 20% 24% 23% 12%

Somewhat likely 22% 31% 9% 24% 20% 22% 20% 24% 19% 23% 31% 36% 21% 22% 19% 27% 22% 16%

Not very likely 18% 16% 19% 16% 23% 9% 17% 19% 18% 19% 16% 20% 21% 23% 14% 15% 20% 21%

Not at all likely 38% 20% 66% 39% 34% 50% 39% 37% 46% 30% 21% 24% 36% 35% 44% 33% 33% 49%

N* 401 220 140 220 136 43 176 225 235 70 52 52 33 131 185 143 122 125

Party Registration

Age

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to100 percent due to rounding.

9

If a casino opens in Springfield, how likely would you be to go to the casino to see a show or concert? Would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?

Likelihood of Visiting a Casino in Springfield to See a Show or Concert Don’t know / Refused (Vol.) 4% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 5% 4% 5% 0% 0% 3% 3% 6% 3% 2% 6%

Very likely July 8 – 11, 2013 Position on Casino Likely voters Casino supporters and leaners Casino opponents and leaners Democrat Unenrolled Gender Republican Male Female White / NonHispanic Black / NonHispanic Hispanic 18-34 35-44 45-59 60 and older High school or less Some college College graduate 38% 60% 10% 39% 38% 31% 42% 35% 31% 50% 53% 58% 46% 37% 32% 33% 48% 36%

Somewhat likely 29% 30% 28% 30% 30% 25% 29% 30% 30% 25% 38% 26% 22% 42% 24% 33% 23% 32%

Not very likely 9% 4% 16% 8% 11% 10% 8% 10% 11% 9% 4% 5% 6% 6% 12% 11% 8% 8%

Not at all likely 20% 5% 43% 20% 16% 33% 19% 21% 24% 12% 5% 11% 24% 12% 26% 20% 20% 17%

N* 401 220 140 220 136 43 176 225 235 70 52 52 33 131 185 143 122 125

Party Registration

Race

Age

Education

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to100 percent due to rounding.

10

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