You are on page 1of 6
Maktab Sains Paduka Seri Begawan Sultan Economics Form 5 POPULATION All the people within a defined area or group. Most commonly it refers to countries or regions, The population of a country can increase in two ways: * When the birth rate is higher than the death rate (this is described as the natural rate of increase) + When the number of immigrants exceeds the number of emigrants, World population trends The current annual population increase of about 80 million will remain constant until 2015. Currently world population is growing by about 80 million people per year. This is a little less than in the early 1990s when the growth was more than 85 million per year. According to the most recent UN medium variant projection this will change very little during the next decades. Only after 2015 will we observe a gradual decline of the annual population increase - reaching about 50 million by 2050. Thus, by the middle of the next century, world population growth (in absolute numbers) will have declined to the level of the early 1950s. However, this is only possible, if fertility - in all developing countries - falls to the "reproductive level" of 2.1 children per woman by 2050. For countries like India, Pakistan or Nigeria this is a long way to go. (hitpy/www jiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/Papers/gkhi /chap1 .htm) World population increase is concentrated in Asia From the 3.68 billion people that will be added to the world population between 1995 and 2050, Asia will contribute some 2 billion (see Figure C1_3). This enormous increase is due to the already massive size of the population. Most of this growth will occur in the next three decades. Between 1995 and 2025 Asia's population will grow by 1.35 billion - between 2025 and 2050 the increase is projected to be just 658 million. Africa will contribute 1.3 billion people to the world population between 1995 and the middle of the next century - almost twice as much. as its current total population. Fertility is still so high in Sub-Saharan Africa that it can offset the effect of rising mortality. With an increase of 734 million over the next 30 years Africa's population will more than double. Latin America and the Caribbean, on the other hand, will have only a very moderate population increase of some 334 million between 1995 and 2050 - almost two-thirds (213 million) during the next three decades. This is due to both the smaller initial size of the population and the already relatively low level of fertility. Europe's population will almost certainly decline - by 27 million over the next 30 years and by another 64 million between 2025 and 2050. Hence, the UN medium variant projection assumes a shrinking of Europe's population by some 91 million between 1995 and the middle of the next century, 01950 01995 m 2025 m= 2050 Docania” Northern LatinaAm. Afiea Europe Asia Figure C1_3: Total Population by Region, 1950, 1995, 2025, and 2050 (in million) UN Medium Variant. The ten countries which will contribute most to world population growth over the next 30 years are India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Indonesia, United States of America, Bangladesh, Zaire, and Iran - in that order! Worldwide, the population will age. Over the next decades the world population will inevitably age. This is an unavoidable consequence of large birth cohorts during the 1950s and 1960s and the rapid fertility decline since the 1970s. In 2025 the "baby boomers" of the 1950s and 60s will be between 65 and 75 years of age. These large aging cohorts are followed by the relatively small "baby bust" generations of the worldwide fertility decline, In 1950 there were only 131 million people of age 65 and older; in 1995 their number had almost tripled and was estimated at 371 million. Between now and 2025 the number will more than double again; and by 2050 we will probably have more than 1.4 billion elderly worldwide (see Figure C1_7). The percentage of elderly increased from 5.2 in 1950 to 6.2 in 1995, By 2050 one out of ten people worldwide will be 65 years of age or more. While currently population aging is most serious in Europe and Japan, China will ‘experience a dramatic increase in the proportion of elder people by the middle of the next century. This is largely due to the country's success in family planning, which rapidly reduced the relative size of birth cohorts since the 1970s. =o Siders: Mod variant Mee aul \ Totlunbetof hiden and (n lon) re re) emin=nine 130 SH eens ais ‘80 Figure C1_7: Total Number of Children (< 15 years of age) and Elderly (65+). Medium Variant UN Projection