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incomes and rate of return from rice farming: This rate of return is compared with farming in other crops. and 4) provide recommendations about Thai rice strategies by focusing on an increasing in knowledge base and research on rice production. For the domestic one. and other necessary policies. The study of Thai rice demands have the following issues. FAO and the rice farmer survey in 6 provinces. For the international one. the domestic rice market is studied in many dimensions. such as. the issues about world rice consumptions and trends and the world rice exports and trends are analyzed by using the economics model. retail markets and mains export markets. dynamics model. FAO and the Ministry of Commerce of Thailand. trade. • A supply response on rice compares to other crops and the study of the factors which have impacts on improving rice farming productivity: the first one applied the model related to supply response in farming areas. The latter one used rice production per area model based on pooled cross section and time series data. • The structures of productions. selling from rice mills. consumption and market in Thailand 2) study and analyze the impacts of the governmentus intervention policies on the competitiveness of Thai rice 3) study trend of Thai rice in future. As regards to the method of the study on Thai rice demand. The secondary data applied in this issue are including labor force and vii . • The labor supply in Thai agricultural sector: This is for the prediction of the changing trend in Thai agricultural labor supply in next 10 years. The study of the rice demand and trend is separated into 2 parts: international and domestic. it is the study of the aggregate domestic rice demand and export since 1960 to present by using the secondary data from USDA. market. • The factors which have an impact on decisions of farming other crops together with rice: This part of analyze bases on the data from the rice farmer survey and apply the Logit Model as a methodology. This study bases on the econometrics models for studying factors affected the trend of labor demand and supply. This issue applied the secondary data from the Office of Agricultural Economics of Thailand.Executive Summary The objectives of this project are to 1) study and analyze trend of the rice production.

Northern region (Phitsanulok and Nakornsawan) and North-Eastern region (Khonkaen and Ubon-Ratchathani). The study of the productivity and technology has the issues as follow. The study of impact of price intervention by government shows empirical evidences about pros and cons from the government rice pledging scheme by chose the rice pledging scheme in production year 2011/2012. The field surveys for collecting primary data randomized farmers at 613 samples from 3 regions: Central region (Ayutthaya and Suphanburi). namely quartile regression. These studies applies ~Foresightu method by asked the options from the stakeholders in every relevant sector. As regards to the study of direction of Thai rice in future. this study separates the possibility into 2 scenarios: in case of Thailand as the world largest rice exporter and in case of government decides to implement the rice quality policy. field surveys also included the in-depth interviewing firms related to production of agricultural machinery and technology. approximately 80 people. viii .unemployment from the Labor Force Survey by The National Statistic Office of Thailand. • The impact of changing in technology and rice seed on labor and land productivity: This paper studies the impact of changing in technology and rice seed in last 5 years compare to the present and analyzes the factors which have an impact on labor and land productivity by using econometrics model. about requirements and policies which might be happened in the future. and data from the survey. • Land and labor productivity from rice farming in the whole country: This part analyzes productivity and factor determined type of farming (wet season and dry season rice farming). • The situation of improving rice seed: this part done by reviewing relevant literatures/documents and secondary data. the value added of productions in each sectors from the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board of Thailand and the prices indices from the Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices of Thailand since 1986 to 2011. In addition. The data used here is time series data (yearly).

In case of Thailand. the ix . Therefore. This is because of 4 reasons: declining of the population growth in Asia. there should be more research on the marketing topic. an increase in the research and development on rice topic and an improving in biotechnology on rice seed. packaging and area of origin. higher income per capita of rice consumption countries which reduces rice consumption per head (expect in Africa) and the dietary transformation of Asia which tends to substitute rice consumption by other kinds of food. the results suggested that the percentage of broken rice is factor which has the most negative impact on rice price follow by degree of fragrant and cleanness. In addition. That is the reasons why the rice price probably decreases about 1. They expected that the quantity of rice will gradually increase during 2011-2015. if government still implemented the rice pledging scheme. This is because the rice importing countries tend to begin to use the rice import substitution policies (i. Although the world rice production in the past increased 1.37 percent per year. it is expected to grow about 1. respectively.97 percent per year) more than an expansion in agricultural areas. the area of origin and brand. for instance. In contrast. the results suggest that although the total domestic rice consumption might be able to maintain its moderate growth.The recent results of study about the future of world rice market have the similar conclusion. The reason behinds the declining trend is an increase in income per capita. From using the Hedomic Model analyzes factors affected rice price. An increase in rice production mainly comes from an increase in land productivity (0. the rice consumption per head slightly but continually declined since 2002. The jasmine rice consumer normally cares about the consistency of riceus quality. Chinese mixed rice seed. in term of policy.3 percent per year in next 10 ‚ 20 years. producing rice by themselves). However. white rice consumer mainly pays attention on the rice color. Although the domestic rice consumption has a declining trend. after that it will decline at 360 million tons per year. the consumption of the jasmine rice still increased along with an increase in consumersu income. migration from rural to urban areas.e. a research and development policy should focus on fertilizer and/or nutrition and environment that affect the fragrance of rice. such as.12 percent per year in next 10 years. The wet season rice production will tends to increase about 3 percent per year if rice price remains the same. creating popularity of rice from particular areas.

fortunately that an exporting of Thai jasmine and parboiled rice in world market still had an increasing trend since they still be the products that foreigners will consume more when their income increase. This problem arises from higher agricultural wage rate due to the shortage of labor. the inputs cost raised remarkably. Furthermore. after government implemented the rice pledging scheme at the price at 15.000 Baht per rai per year and the prices of a fertilizers increased. the productivity per rai of dry season rice farming increased at 1. Thai farming are confronting with many challenges.5 percent per year) more than white rice (12.2 percent per year in next 10 years. There are 1) the higher cost of production. it probably increases only about 2.production will be more increased.000 to more than 1. For dry season rice farming. will support Thailand to have more marginal rice to export. As a consequence. An increase in rice production mainly comes from an increase in areas of dry season farming. especially white rice. However. there will be more conflict rising from water using issue. As the same time. makes the growth rate of productivity per rai decelerated. However. 2) The productivity per rai of both wet and dry season rice farming. can sell rice in lower price than Thailand. A point to concern is an exporting of poor quality rice. however it increased only 0. For an exporting of the jasmine rice. An exporting of parboiled rice might increase (18. which tends to constant.5 percent per year) because the elasticity of parboiled rice demand per an income of importers higher than another one. especially production from dry season farming while the demand from domestic consumption will slightly increase. and higher transportation cost due to an increase in fuel price. who have lower cost.47 percent during 1986 ‚ 2012.000 Baht per ton. For example.5 percent. higher price of fertilizer. a decreasing trend of rice price in the world market probably makes the exporting quantity of Thai rice grows approximately 4. As regards to exporting. its total production will increase no matter its price will remain steady and/or decline. will confronts with a loss since a production and marketing cost in current situation are already high and the competitive countries. This leads to a rapid increase in demand for quantity of water for farming. higher price of pesticide. 3) The competitiveness of Thai rice decreased as the evidence showed that the domestic resource cost of x .49 percent per year during 1947 ‚ 2012. if the government has no reform on water management system. an increasing trend of the rice production. especially the farmland rental rate in central region increased from 800-1. especially demand management and clear definition of water usingus rights.

to other sectors. for instance. The agricultural household survey in 6 provinces. they decided to purchase new rice seeds instead of choosing rice seeds method which requires labor intensive.growing 1 ton of rice increased. 2) The budget allocation on research is still an annual program. They also switched to use biochemical. there is no young researcher to substitute. the research program on rice faces many important problems. Then. For example. 4) Currently. It is observed that a using of machinery happens together with the expansion of farm size in central region. However. 6) The budget allocation still struggle with problem of evaluation on rate of return on investment because a lack of the effective evaluation system since research fund is granted. 1) the rice research intensity has negative trend. found the clear evidences which show that farmers solved the labor shortage by using labor. Furthermore. research and development on rice seeds are also success in many dimensions. both men and women during age 15 ‚ 34. 4) Thai rice farmers confronted with severe spread of an aphis. 5) The last challenge is a labor shortage since a severe rate of migration of young labor force in agricultural. When economy faces bad year. The government budget for rice research has to depend on annual budget. This makes research budget fluctuated by an economic cycle. and hide a truck to carry rice to a rice mill. time and cost saving technology/method in every production processes. This study also found that the research is a factor which has an influence on land and labor productivity in rice production. therefore it hardly gain political interest from politician who normally focus on gaining short-term vote. This is because the land is repeatedly used to grow rice for many seasons since farmers wanted to enjoy the high price of rice increased from the government rice pledging scheme. improving rice seed to be more insect resistant and gain more land productivity. rate of return from improving rice seed is higher than 30 percent. for instance. 3) The agricultural research budget is always used as a supporting budget under nresearch and developmento category. xi . farmers in some provinces in central region form a group to find the way(s) to reduce cost of production. This not supports long-term agricultural research which requires the budget allocation for 3 -5 years research program. tracker for growing and harvesting rice. this kind of budget is the first thing to be cut. In addition. This is because research is a long term investment. 613 households. While senior researchers continually retired. the rice department of Thailand and universities face young proficient researcher scarcity.

producing better quality of jasmine rice. However. it probably might not enough for creating better living standard and competitiveness in future.e. Thai government should play an important role by suggesting how farmers should adapt and develop rice economy. who work in unfertile land. and 4) Reforming a research for supporting rice strategy policy. 2) Larger farm size policy 3) Increasing quality of rice policy. rice medicine/nutrition products. exporting parboiled rice which can sell at higher price than white rice and producing products and/or medical products made from rice (i. only attempting to reduce cost in order to maintain market share is probably not sustainable since competitors have less cost and can rapidly improve production and transportation efficiency. labor productivity will go up 3) Producing high quality rice or a rice which has higher price. which create extreme pressures on a using of water resource and production factors. to move to non-agricultural careers. for instance. The suggested policies are including: 1) reducing number of farmersu policy by move excess agricultural labor to other sectors.Therefore. The solution is a setting of Thai rice strategy by focusing on producing and selling quality rice in order to improve income level of Thai rice farmer. xii . Under these challenges and circumstances that Thai rice and farmers might have less competitiveness in the future. anti-cancer products made from rice). 1) Reducing cost of production and/or increasing land productivity 2) Increasing labor productivity: this study found that if famers increase using of agricultural machinery and increase farm size. This can improve living income of farmers to be closer to income of people worked in non-agricultural sectors under the circumstance that government create non-agricultural jobs in rural area and improve education/knowledge for non-agricultural careers to support farmers. There are 3 alternative ways for Thai farmers. trade sector and maintaining the number one the world largest rice exporting position are confronting with challenges. Then. This study suggests that Thai farmers should adapt themselves in 2 previous options depend of the market and situational change. the production sector. The question is how farmers will have income per head close to the non-agricultural occupations.

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broken down by types of rice (which are proxies of quality of rice). mainly because of the deceleration of population growth in Asia. It has been projected in research papers in other countries that global rice consumption will increase slowly in the next 10 years (2011-2022). focusing on building fundamental knowledge and conducting research in production. in consultation with experts. the project will conduct a survey on farmers in the central. analyze the probability that farmers will switch to grow other crops and study farmersu behavior in utilizing technology in the production. after this period. Because of this. and to forecast the future of Thai rice. shipping the products to the market will be analyzed. In addition. The survey results will be used to analyze the farmersu behavior in growing rice.Executive Summary The objectives of this project are to study and analyze the trend of rice production. However. Every step of the processes. lower-northern and north-eastern parts of Thailand (6 provinces in total). It will also examine the roles of research and development and technology and project the future of Thai rice by using future foresight. The econometric method will be used to estimate the supply response of Thai rice. including selecting seeds. The secondary information will be used to analyze the capital and the profit in growing rice comparing to other alternative crops. However. the increase of per capita income of Asian countries that consume rice and the reduction of rice consumption per head due to the fact that Asian people start to consume other products instead of rice. rice trade will be reduced because rice consumption tends to be reduced and major importing countries start to grow rice for domestic consumption. to study and analyze the effects of the Governmentus market intervention policy on the competitiveness of Thai rice. It will also be used to analyze factors that affect the productivity per rai and labor productivity. trade and marketing. It is also projected that global productivity will increase in the next 10 years because the production per rai increases due to new technology from investment in research on rice and biotechnology for improving rice seeds and the slight increase of rice farms. the demand for water and the demand and supply of agricultural labor by using secondary information from time series analysis. rice price in the global market is expected to be reduced in the next 10-20 years. the rural-urban migration. The project will study the production costs. rice consumption and rice export. xvii . it will reduce. preparing soil. The project will also suggest strategic policy on Thai rice. The scope of research and the methodology include the estimation of demand for Thai rice in the global market and in Thailand.

rice export will encounter many issues: (1) normal rice export will suffer a loss because now the production cost and marketing cost are starting to jump more than export price. (2) the competitor countries have low production cost. The farm rental fee in the central region increased from 800-1. The estimation of Thai rice export equation indicates that in the next 10 years. This will lead to more intense water conflicts. In any case. after the Government used the rice pledging scheme which guarantees the price of rice at 15. In addition. Thailand tends to export more parboiled rice which is more expensive than normal rice because of the increasing demands from the Middle East and some African countries. Parboiled rice export will increase more than normal rice export. (e) The water shortage will be more severe because the farmers are expanding their rice fields into the areas which are not suitable for rice growing. (c) The competitiveness of Thai rice is reduced as the natural resources used for the production of 1 tonne of rice increase. Moreover. therefore water demand will be rapidly increased.2 % per year. the future of rice export does not seem to prosper.Even though Thailand increases rice export. However. pesticides and shipment because of higher fuel price. Thai farmers are experiencing some difficulties in rice production (a) higher production cost due to labour shortage which leads to higher agricultural wages and due to the higher cost of fertilizers. (b) The rice productivity per rai both in off-season and in-season rice fields tends to stabilized. the production cost rapidly increased. rice export will increase 4. Moreover.000 Baht per tonne. Some research findings indicate that rice production in Thailand tends to increase 3% per year (stabilized price) because the expansion of off-season rice fields. Fortunately. Thailand always produce and export good quality rice (only if the rice pledging scheme is changed) because domestic and international consumers consume more jasmine rice when they have more income. xviii . This is because the consumption volume increases slower than the productivity. (f) The major labour shortage issue because of the fact that young farmers (15-34 years old) are migrating out of the agricultural sector. (d) Farmers are experiencing more severe brown planthopper outbreaks because they continuously grow rice without any breaks to benefit from the rice pledging scheme. the policy reform in Myanmar and Cambodia will increase their rice export with lower price comparing to Thailand.000 Baht per rai per year to 1.000 Baht per rai per growing season and the fertilizer price also increased. They will have the advantage in exporting rice at a lower price. (3) The rice pledging scheme increases the price of Thai rice.

claiming that it is for nresearch and developmento. research on rice is experiencing several critical problems i.e. has increased more than 30%. therefore. Moreover. The seeds are stronger and create more productivity per rai. (f) the management of budget for research does not have an evaluation system that enables the understanding of the rate of return as the system has never been established since the beginning of the project. Income rate from seed development. Under this pressure. It is not enough to only reduce the production cost to gain the export market share as it is not sustainable. Thai farmers have less competitiveness. This study found that rice research is the main factor that helps increase the overall productivity in the agricultural sector which will improve farmersu livelihood in the long run. The budget for research usually depends on the fiscal year budget. When the older researchers are retired. Farmers in some provinces in the central region also gathered together to find a solution to reduce the production cost. (a) the budget for research comparing to rice research intensity tends to reduce.The household survey on farmers in 6 provinces (613 households) conducted by the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) in 2012 found that the farmers solved the issue of labour shortage by utilizing technology that was less labour-intensive. (d) nowadays. However. the budget for research will be cut as the research is a long-term investment which does not help gain political votes. therefore the budget for research fluctuates based on the economic cycle. the production sector. In the year that the Government experiences economic crisis. seedling trucks and harvesting trucks and started to rent trucks to ship rice to the millhouse. the trade sector and the status of the leading rice exporters of Thailand are being challenged. Because of these. The income from jasmine rice export has increased more than one third of the exporting value. less time-consuming and reduced the production cost in every step of the production from buying new seeds instead of keeping the seed stock that was labourintensive. This has put extreme pressure on the use of water resources and the factors of production. (c) budget for agricultural research has been used as supporting budget. (b) the management of budget for research is an annual project which is an obstacle for agricultural research and development which needs the management on the program research basis (3-5 years). The competitors have less production cost and they can rapidly xix . the Rice Department and universities are experiences shortage of qualified researchers. the research for jasmine rice seed development has been successful. The farmers also started to use biochemical. there are no substitutes.

xx .improve the production and shipment. A solution is to redesign Thai rice strategy and to focus on producing and trading good quality rice in order to raise Thai farmersu income. The government should play an important role in identifying methods to adapt themselves to improve rice economy by creating the following policies (1) reducing the number of farmers by migrating the surplus labour out of the agricultural sector so that the income per head of farmers is equivalent to others outside of the agricultural sector. This project found that if farmers used agricultural engines and expand their (3) growing good quality rice or rice that has higher price such as high-quality jasmine rice. The main question is what can we do to help the farmers receive similar income as others outside of the agricultural sector. However. (2) expanding rice fields by changing the laws that limit land rent (3) improving the quality of rice (4) reforming the research system and increasing investments in rice research in order to support the strategy that develops Thai rice with high quality and increases labor productivity in rice production. however only these ways of adapting might not be enough to improve their livelihoods and to maintain their competitiveness. they should improve education and knowledge so that farmers could work in other sectors and they should facilitate farmers that grow off-season rice to grow other crops. The farmers have 3 alternatives in the future: (1) reducing the production cost and/or increasing the productivity per rai (2) increasing productivity per farmer. This research found that Thai farmers have been adapting themselves for the first 2 alternatives. exporting parboiled rice that has higher price and exporting rice products or medical products made our of rice. the Government must have the policy to create jobs outside of the agricultural sector in the suburban areas.

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10 25-3 4-17 .6)+-3 0.05 *+ 0. 0.01.