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Project Scheduling PertCPM

Project Scheduling PertCPM

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Project schedule in Quantitative analysis
Project schedule in Quantitative analysis

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Project Scheduling PERT / CPM

To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition,  2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

CPM/PERT
 Critical Path Method (CPM)
 DuPont & Remington-Rand (1956)  Deterministic task times  Activity-on-node network construction

 Project Eval. & Review Technique (PERT)
 US Navy, Booz, Allen & Hamilton  Multiple task time estimates  Activity-on-arrow network construction

Questions Addressed
1. When will the project be completed? 2. What are the critical activities or tasks in the project? 3. Which are the noncritical activities? 4. What is the probability that the project will be completed by a specific date? 5. Is the project on schedule, ahead of schedule, or

behind schedule?
6. Is the project over or under the budgeted amount?

what is the best way to accomplish this at least cost? . If the project must be finished in less than the scheduled amount of time.continued 7. Are there enough resources available to finish the project on time? 8.Questions .

The Project Network Network consists of branches & nodes Node 1 2 3 Branch .

Project Planning  Statement of work  written description of goals. resources & time  Precedence relationship shows sequential relationship of project activities Simplified Project Network Construct forms 1 2 Pour concrete 3 . work & time frame of project  Activities require labor.

Project Control  All activities identified and included  Completed in proper sequence  Resource needs identified  Schedule adjusted  Maintain schedule and budget  Complete on time .

workloads. and resource requirements .Work Breakdown Structure  Project broken down into modules  Hierarchical organization of work to be done on a project  Modules subdivided into subcomponents. activities. and tasks  Identifies individual tasks.

schedule. Identify precedence relationships. Draw the network. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity. Use the network to help plan. Compute the longest time path (critical path) through the network. 5. 4. monitor. Define the project and all significant activities/tasks. Develop relationships among the activities. . 6.Six Steps Common to PERT and CPM 1. 3. and control the project. 2.

E F.G .General Foundry PERT Activity A B C D E F G H Description Build internal components Modify roof and floor Construct collection stack Pour concrete and install frame Build high-temperature burner Install control system Install air pollution device Inspect and test Immediate Predecessors A B C C D.

Gantt Chart for General Foundry Activity A B C D E F G H 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 .

A Gantt Chart  Popular tool for project scheduling  Graph with bar for representing the time for each task  Provides visual display of project schedule  Also shows slack for activities  Amount of time activity can be delayed without delaying project .

2 3 Month 5 7 9 .A Gantt Chart 0 Activity Design house and obtain financing Lay foundation Order and receive materials Build house Select paint Select carpet Finish work | 2 | Month 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 1 Figure 6.

nodes represent activities & arrows show precedence relationships  In AOA. arrows represent activities & nodes are events for points in time  An event is the completion or beginning of an activity  A dummy shows precedence for two activities with same start & end nodes .Network Construction  In AON.

Project Network for a House .

Project Network for a House Lay foundation 2 3 0 1 Dummy Build house Finish work 1 3 2 4 Select paint 1 Design house and obtain financing Order and receive materials 3 1 6 Select carpet 1 7 5 .

Concurrent Activities .

Concurrent Activities Lay foundation 3 Lay foundation Dummy 2 1 Order material (b) Correct precedence relationship 0 2 3 2 Order material 4 (a) Incorrect precedence relationship .

Critical Path  A path is a sequence of connected activities running from start to end node in network  The critical path is the path with the longest duration in the network  Project cannot be completed in less than the time of the critical path .

The Critical Path Lay foundation 2 3 3 0 1 Dummy Build house Finish work 1 Design house and obtain financing 2 Order and receive materials 4 Select paint 1 3 1 6 Select carpet 1 7 5 A: 1-2-3-4-6-7 3 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 9 months B: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 3 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 months C: 1-2-4-6-7 3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months D: 1-2-4-5-6-7 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months .

The Critical Path Lay foundation 2 3 3 0 1 Dummy Build house Finish work 1 Design house and obtain financing 2 Order and receive materials 4 Select paint 1 3 1 6 Select carpet 1 7 5 A: 1-2-3-4-6-7 3 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 9 months B: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 3 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 months C: 1-2-4-6-7 3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months D: 1-2-4-5-6-7 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months .

The Critical Path Activity Start Times 3 Lay foundation 2 3 3 0 1 Dummy Build house Finish work 1 Design house and obtain financing 2 Order and receive materials 4 Select paint 1 3 1 6 Select carpet 1 7 5 Start at 5 months 2 0 1 Finish at 9 months 1 1 3 2 4 1 3 1 6 7 Start at 3 months Start at 8 months 5 .

tij ES12 = 0 EF12 = ES12 .earliest time activity can start  Forward pass starts at beginning of CPM/PERT network to determine ES times  EF = ES + activity time 2003     ESij = maximum (EFi) EFij = ESij .t12 = 0 + 3 = 3 months .Early Times Lay foundation 2 3 3 0 1 Dummy Build house Finish work 1 Design house and obtain financing 2 Order and receive materials 4 Select paint 1 3 1 6 Select carpet 1 7 5  ES .

Computing Early Times Lay foundation 2 3 3 0 1 Dummy Build house Finish work 1 Design house and obtain financing 2 Order and receive materials 4 Select paint 1 3 1 6 Select carpet 1 7 5  ES23 = max EF2 = 3 months  ES46 = max EF4 = max 5. the project duration .t46 = 5 + 3 = 8 months  EF67 = 9 months.4 = 5 months  EF46 = ES46 .

EF = 9) (ES = 6. EF = 7) 1 2 4 1 (ES = 3.Computing Early Times Early Start and Finish Times (ES = 3. EF = 3) Lay foundation 2 3 3 0 1 Dummy Build house Finish work 1 Design house and obtain financing 2 Order and receive materials 4 Select paint 1 3 1 6 Select carpet 1 7 5 3 (ES = 5. EF = 8) 1 (ES = 8. EF = 4) (ES = 5. EF = 5) (ES = 5. EF = 6) 3 1 6 7 5 . EF = 5) 2 0 1 3 (ES = 0.

latest time activity can start & not delay project  Backward pass starts at end of CPM/PERT network to determine LS times  LF = LS + activity time LSij = LFij .tij LFij = minimum (LSj) .Late Times  LS .

t56 = 8 .1 = 4 months .Computing Late Times Lay foundation 2 3 3 0 1 Dummy Build house Finish work 1 Design house and obtain financing 2 Order and receive materials 4 Select paint 1 3 1 6 Select carpet 1 7 5  LF67 = 9 months  LS67 = LF67 .1 = 7 months  LF24 = minimum (LS4) = min(5. 6) = 5 months  LS24 = LF24 .1 = 8 months  LF56 = minimum (LS6) = 8 months  LS56 = LF56 .t24 = 5 .t67 = 9 .

t24 = 5 . 6) = 5 months  LS24 = LF24 .t67 = 9 .1 = 8 months  LF56 = minimum (LS6) = 8 months  LS56 = LF56 .1 = 4 months .t56 = 8 .Computing Late Times Lay foundation 2 3 3 0 1 Dummy Build house Finish work 1 Design house and obtain financing 2 Order and receive materials 4 Select paint 1 3 1 6 Select carpet 1 7 5  LF67 = 9 months  LS67 = LF67 .1 = 7 months  LF24 = minimum (LS4) = min(5.

3 = 1 month .ES24 = 4 .Activity Slack  Activities on critical path have ES = LS & EF = LF  Activities not on critical path have slack  Sij = LSij .ESij  Sij = LFij .EFij  S24 = LS24 .

Activity Slack Data Lay foundation 2 3 3 0 1 Dummy Build house Finish work 1 Design house and obtain financing 2 Order and receive materials 4 Select paint 1 3 1 6 Select carpet 1 7 5 .

Activity Slack Data Activity *1-2 *2-3 2-4 *3-4 4-5 *4-6 5-6 *6-7 * Critical path Lay foundation 2 3 3 0 1 Dummy Build house Finish work 1 Design house and obtain financing 2 Order and receive materials 4 Select paint 1 3 1 6 Select carpet 1 7 5 LS 0 3 4 5 6 5 7 8 ES 0 3 3 5 5 5 6 8 LF 3 5 5 5 7 8 8 9 EF 3 5 4 5 6 8 7 9 Slacks 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 .

Activity Slack Data Activity Slack Activity *1-2 S=0 *2-3 2-4 3 *3-4 2 S=0 4-5 *4-6 5-6 *6-7 * Critical path Lay foundation 2 3 3 0 1 Dummy Build house Finish work 1 Design house and obtain financing 2 Order and receive materials 4 Select paint 1 3 1 6 Select carpet 1 7 5 LS 0 3 3 2 4 1 5 S=1 6 5 7 8 ES LF EF 3 5 4 5 6 6 8 S=1 7 9 Slacks 0 0 1 1 0 S=0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 S=0 3 3 5 4 5 5 S=1 6 8 3 5 5 S=0 5 3 7 1 1 8 8 5 9 7 .

Probabilistic Time Estimates  Reflect uncertainty of activity times  Beta distribution is used in PERT .

Probabilistic Time Estimates  Reflect uncertainty of activity times  Beta distribution is used in PERT a + 4m + b t= 6 Mean (expected time): Variance: where  2 b-a = 6 2 a = optimistic estimate m = most likely time estimate b = pessimistic time estimate .

Example Beta Distributions .

Example Beta Distributions P(time) P(time) a m t Time b a Time t m b P(time) a m=t Time b .

Southern Textile Company .

Southern Textile Company d 2 Equipment installation Equipment testing and modification 6 l Final debugging a e Dummy System development 1 b 3 f Manual Testing 5 i System Training 7 m System changeover 9 Position recruiting c Job training g h System Testing j k Dummy 4 Orientation 8 .

Activity Estimates 2 6 1 3 5 7 9 4 8 .

44 0.44 0.11 0.Activity Estimates TIME ESTIMATES (WKS) ACTIVITY 2 6 1 3 5 7 9 4 8 MEAN TIME VARIANCE a 6 3 1 0 2 2 3 2 3 2 0 1 1 m 8 6 3 0 4 3 4 2 7 4 0 4 10 b 10 9 5 0 12 4 5 2 11 6 0 7 13 t 8 6 3 0 5 3 4 2 7 4 0 4 9 2 0.44 1.00 4.78 0.00 2.00 1.11 0.78 0.00 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 2-6 3-5 4-5 4-8 5-7 5-8 7-8 6-9 7-9 .00 1.00 0.

2

6

Early and Late Times

1

3

5

7

9

4

8

2

6

Early and Late Times
For Activity 1-2 a = 6, m = 8, b = 10
6 + 4(8) + 10 a + 4m + b t= = = 8 weeks 6 6

1

3

5

7

9

4

8

2=

2 4 10 - 6 b-a = = 9 week 6 6

2

2

6

Early and Late Times
ACTIVITY

1

3

5

7

9

4

8

t 8 6 3 0 5 3 4 2 7 4 0 4 9

 0.44 1.00 0.44 0.00 2.78 0.11 0.11 0.00 1.78 0.44 0.00 1.00 4.00

ES

EF

LS

LF

S

1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 2-6 3-5 4-5 4-8 5-7 5-8 7-8 6-9 7-9

0 0 0 8 8 6 3 3 9 9 13 13 16

8 6 3 8 13 9 7 5 16 13 13 17 25

1 0 2 9 16 6 5 14 9 12 16 21 16

9 6 5 9 21 9 9 16 16 16 16 25 25

1 0 2 1 8 0 2 11 0 3 3 8 0

Southern Textile Company ES = 8. LF = 5 4 ES = 9. LF = 21 2 ES = 0. LF = 16 0 ES = 13. LF = 16 4 9 1 6 3 3 5 7 7 ES = 16. EF = 13 LS = 12. LF = 16 8 . EF = 5 LS = 14. EF = 16 LS = 9. EF = 3 LS = 2. EF = 17 LS = 21. LF = 9 6 ES = 13. EF = 13 LS = 16. EF = 8 LS = 1. EF = 7 LS = 5. LF = 9 ES = 9. EF = 6 LS = 0. LF = 25 8 ES = 0. EF = 13 LS = 16. LF = 16 3 2 4 ES = 3. EF = 8 LS = 9. LF = 9 ES = 0. EF = 9 LS = 6. LF = 9 5 ES = 8. LF = 6 0 ES = 6. EF = 25 LS = 21. LF = 25 9 ES = 3.

EF = 8 LS = 9.Southern Textile Company ES = 8. EF = 17 LS = 21. LF = 6 0 ES = 6. EF = 13 LS = 12. LF = 16 ES = 13. LF = 16 8 . EF = 6 LS = 0. EF = 13 LS = 16. EF = 3 LS = 2. LF = 25 8 ES = 0.11 + 1. EF = 8 LS = 1.00 = 6.78 + 4. LF = 16 4 ES = 3. EF = 5 LS = 14. LF = 5 2 +  13 3 2 +  35 5 2 +  57 7 2  79 7 ES = 16. LF = 25 9 4 0 = 1. EF = 13 LS = 16. LF = 9 6 ES = 13. EF =9 ES = 9. LF = 9 ES = 0. LF = 21 2 ES = 0.89 weeks 2 ES = 9. EF = 7 LS = 5. LF = 9 LS = 9. EF = 16 Total project variance LS = 6. EF = 25 LS = 21.00 + 0. LF = 9 5 ES = 8. LF = 16 4 9 1 6  = 2 3 3 ES = 3.

Probabilistic Network Analysis Determine probability that project is completed within specified time Z= where x-     = tp = project mean time  = project standard deviation x = proposed project time Z = number of standard deviations x is from mean .

Normal Distribution Of Project Time .

Normal Distribution Of Project Time Probability Z  = tp x Time .

Southern Textile Example What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 weeks? .

Southern Textile Example What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 weeks? P(x  30 weeks)  = 25 x = 30 Time (weeks) .

62 = 1.89 weeks 2 Z= = x-   = 6.Southern Textile Example What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 weeks? P(x  30 weeks)  = 6.91 .89  = 2.25 2.62 weeks  = 25 x = 30 Time (weeks) 30 .

89 weeks 2 Z= = x-   = 6.91 From Table A.62 = 1. Thus P(30) = 0.62 weeks  = 25 x = 30 Time (weeks) 30 .89  = 2. a Z score of 1.91 corresponds to a probability of 0.5000 = 0.9719 .Southern Textile Example What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 weeks? P(x  30 weeks)  = 6.4719.4719 + 0.25 2.1.

Southern Textile Example What is the probability that the project is completed within 22 weeks? P(x  22 weeks) 0.3729 x = 22  = 25 Time (weeks) .

3729 6.62 = -1.89 weeks 2 Z= = x-   = 0.Southern Textile Example What is the probability that the project is completed within 22 weeks? P(x  22 weeks)  = 6.89  = 2.25 2.14 x = 22  = 25 .62 weeks Time (weeks) 22 .

62 = -1.3729 = 0.14 x = 22  = 25 From Table A. Thus P(22) = 0.1.89 weeks 2 Z= = x-   = 0.3729 6.62 weeks Time (weeks) 22 .25 2.3729. a Z score of -1.14 corresponds to a probability of 0.1271 .89  = 2.5000 .Southern Textile Example What is the probability that the project is completed within 22 weeks? P(x  22 weeks)  = 6.0.

AON Conventions .

AON Conventions Activity number Earliest start Earliest finish 1 3 0 3 0 3 Activity duration Latest start Latest finish .

House-Building Network with AON .

House-Building Network with AON Lay foundation 2 2 3 3 5 5 Build house 4 3 5 5 8 8 8 8 9 9 Start 1 3 0 0 3 3 5 6 6 7 6 1 5 1 3 1 3 4 4 6 7 7 8 7 1 Design house and obtain financing Finish work Select carpet Select paint 5 Order and receive materials .

Project Crashing  Crashing is reducing project time by expending additional resources  Crash time is an amount of time an activity is reduced  Crash cost is the cost of reducing the activity time  Goal is to reduce project duration at minimum cost .

Housebuilding Network 3 8 0 1 12 2 4 4 4 12 4 6 4 7 5 .

000 – $1.000 – $3.000 – $4.000 – $2.Housebuilding Network $7.000 – 2 4 4 4 12 4 6 4 7 5 Normal cost Normal activity Normal time – 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 Weeks .000 – 3 8 0 1 12 $5.000 – $6.

000 – $3.000 – 3 8 Crash cost 0 1 12 $5.Housebuilding Network $7.000 – $4.000 – $6.000 – 2 4 4 Crashed activity 6 4 4 12 4 7 5 Normal cost Normal activity Crash time Normal time – 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 Weeks .000 – $2.000 – $1.

000 – $4.000 – $2.000 – 3 8 Crash cost 0 Total crash cost $2.000 – 2 4 4 Crashed activity 6 4 12 4 7 4 Slope = crash cost per week 5 Normal cost Normal activity Crash time Normal time – 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 Weeks .Housebuilding Network $7.000 – $3.000 = = $400 per week Total crash time 5 1 12 $5.000 – $1.000 – $6.

000 $75.000 0 1.000 $110.000 1.000 0 200 7.Normal Activity and Crash Data ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS) NORMAL COST 3 1 2 4 6 7 5 CRASH COST TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS) CRASH COST PER WEEK 1-2 2-3 2-4 3-4 4-5 4-6 5-6 6-7 12 8 4 0 4 12 4 4 7 5 3 0 1 9 1 3 $3.000 200 7.100 71.000 3.000 500 15.000 0 500 50.000 4.000 2.500 7.100 22.700 5 3 1 0 3 3 3 1 $400 500 3.000 $5.000 .

000 $110.000 5 500 1.000 0 2.000 7.000 0 200 7.000 $75.700 .000 $7.000 71.000 3.100 15.000 $3.000 0 3 3 3 1 $400 500 7 3.500 4 12 4 6 4.000 $5.000 0 0 4 4 $200 500 1.000 8 5 3 4 1 $7.Normal Activity and Crash Data ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS) 3 1 2 4 6 7 5 3 NORMAL COST CRASH COST TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS) CRASH COST PER WEEK 1-2 2-3 2-4 1 3-4 4-5 4-6 5-6 6-7 12 8 12 4 $400 0 4 12 4 4 7 $500 5 2 3 0 1 9 1 3 $3.100 $200 50.000 200 7.000 22.

000 22.000 0 2.000 5 500 1.000 200 7.000 $5.000 0 0 4 4 $200 500 1.000 7.100 15.000 3.500 4 12 4 6 4.000 $75.000 0 200 7.000 0 3 3 3 1 $400 500 7 3.100 $200 50.000 8 5 3 4 1 $7.700 .000 $7.Normal Activity and Crash Data ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS) 3 1 2 4 6 7 5 3 NORMAL COST CRASH COST TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS) CRASH COST PER WEEK 1-2 2-3 2-4 1 3-4 4-5 4-6 5-6 6-7 12 8 12 4 $400 0 4 12 4 4 7 $500 5 2 3 0 1 9 1 3 $3.000 $3.000 71.000 $110.

000 0 200 7.000 7.000 5 3 4 1 $7.100 6-7 4 3 15.000 $500 8 0 2-3 8 5 2.500 7 4 12 1 2 4 6 2-4 4 3 $3.700 .000 9 50.000 0 3 3 3 1 $400 500 7 3.000 Crash cost 5 5-6 4 1 500 1.000 3.000 71.000 $7.100 $200 4-6 12 = $2.000 $110.000 $5.000 $75.Normal Activity and Crash Data ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS) 3 1 2 4 6 7 5 3 NORMAL COST CRASH COST TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS) CRASH COST PER WEEK 1-2 12 7 $3.000 22.000 3-4 0 0 0 0 4 4 $200 4-5 4 1 500 1.000 200 7.000 4.

700 .000 $5.000 0 200 7.000 5 3 4 1 $7.000 4.000 Crash cost 5 5-6 4 1 500 1.100 $200 4-6 12 = $2.000 3.000 9 50.000 $110.000 71.500 7 4 12 1 2 4 6 2-4 4 3 $3.000 $75.000 3-4 0 0 0 0 4 4 $200 4-5 4 1 500 1.000 7.Normal Activity and Crash Data ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS) 3 1 2 4 6 7 5 3 NORMAL COST CRASH COST TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS) CRASH COST PER WEEK 1-2 12 7 $3.000 0 3 3 3 1 $400 500 7 3.000 200 7.000 $7.000 22.100 6-7 4 3 15.000 $500 8 0 2-3 8 5 2.

000 4.000 5 3 4 1 $7.000 200 7.000 3.000 Crash cost $2.000 3-4 0 0 0 0 4 4 $200 4-5 4 1 500 1.000 $7.000 71.000 $500 7 0 2-3 8 5 2.000 0 200 7.500 7 4 12 1 2 4 6 2-4 4 3 $3.000 $110.000 22.100 $200 4-6 12= $2.000 7.000 + 9 $500 = 50.700 .000 $75.500 5 5-6 4 1 500 1.100 6-7 4 3 15.000 $5.000 0 3 3 3 1 $400 500 7 3.Normal Activity and Crash Data ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS) 3 1 2 4 6 7 5 3 NORMAL COST CRASH COST TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS) CRASH COST PER WEEK 1-2 12 7 $3.

Time-Cost Relationship  Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases  Indirect costs increase as project duration increases  Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect costs .

Time-Cost Tradeoff Cost ($) Time Project duration .

Time-Cost Tradeoff Minimum cost = optimal project time Total project cost Indirect cost Cost ($) Direct cost Crashing Project duration Time .

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