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NYU 2009 Rushmore

NYU 2009 Rushmore

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Published by Jim Butler
From the hospitality lawyers of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group at www.HotelLawBlog.com. Here is the latest hotel industry update as of June 2009 as presented to the NYU hotel investment conference by Steve Rushmore, MAI, FRICS, CHA, President and Founder of HVS, srushmore@hvs.com (516) 248-8828.

Hospitality Lawyer in New York at the NYU hotel investment conference with some interesting projections from Steve Rushmore of HVS.

One of my favorite presentations at the NYU hotel investment conference earlier this month was by Steve Rushmore, president and founder of HVS. His entire slides show is worth studying and you can view it in its entirety by clicking on the link at the end of this article.

But a few of the slides particularly caught my attention — the ones on hotel values — when they bottom, when they recover, best and worst markets for the next few years, and along with some good advice for buyers, lenders and owners.

Jim Butler, hotel lawyer, JMBM Global Hospitality Group
310-201-3526 jbutler@jmbm.com

hospitality lawyer hotel lawyer hotel attorney outlook and trends
http://hotellaw.jmbm
From the hospitality lawyers of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group at www.HotelLawBlog.com. Here is the latest hotel industry update as of June 2009 as presented to the NYU hotel investment conference by Steve Rushmore, MAI, FRICS, CHA, President and Founder of HVS, srushmore@hvs.com (516) 248-8828.

Hospitality Lawyer in New York at the NYU hotel investment conference with some interesting projections from Steve Rushmore of HVS.

One of my favorite presentations at the NYU hotel investment conference earlier this month was by Steve Rushmore, president and founder of HVS. His entire slides show is worth studying and you can view it in its entirety by clicking on the link at the end of this article.

But a few of the slides particularly caught my attention — the ones on hotel values — when they bottom, when they recover, best and worst markets for the next few years, and along with some good advice for buyers, lenders and owners.

Jim Butler, hotel lawyer, JMBM Global Hospitality Group
310-201-3526 jbutler@jmbm.com

hospitality lawyer hotel lawyer hotel attorney outlook and trends
http://hotellaw.jmbm

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Hotel Valuation and Transaction Trends For the U.S.

Lodging Industry
Steve Rushmore, MAI, FRICS, CHA President and Founder HVS
srushmore@hvs.com www.hvs.com June 2009

Current Scenario – The Bad News
The Bad News • Severe recession • Rapidly declining hotel demand • Falling occupancies • Declining room rates • Large loss of RevPAR g • Erosion of hotel values • Mortgage defaults • Lack of new financing

Current Scenario – The Good News
The Good News • Minimal new hotel supply • Recovery will be rapid and strong • Huge buying opportunities

The Five Recessions Since 1970 Where Hotel Demand Has Declined
8.0%

4.0%

0.0%

-4.0% 4 0%

1

2

3

4

5

-8.0% 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2 2001 2 2003 2 2005 2 2007 2 2009 2 2011 2 2013 2 2015 Percent Change in Demand
Source: HVS & STR

Economic Crisis: 1980-1982
Event: Dates: Duration: Causes:

1980’s Recession 1980 – 1982 2 Years • Energy crisis 1979 • Tight monetary policy to control rampant inflation • Long recession • Four years of declining hotel demand • Prior to P i t recession, li it d new h t l i limited hotel supply due to high interest rates and availability of financing Most similar to current recession Government stimulus (tax shelters) aided the recovery id d h

Good News:

Important Note:

• •

Current recession is similar to 1982 slowdown since supply buildup was minimal
12.0%

8.0%

4.0%

0.0%

-4.0%

1

2

3

4

5

-8.0% 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2 2001 2 2003 2 2005 2 2007 2 2009 2 2011 2 2013 2 2015 Percent Change in Supply
Source: HVS & STR

We anticipate demand recovery will be similar to the recovery after the 1982 recession – 4 Years
12.0%

8.0%

4.0%

0.0%

-4.0%

-8.0% 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2 2001 2 2003 2 2005 2 2007 2 2009 2 2011 2 2013 2 2015 Percent Change in Demand Percent Change in Supply
Source: HVS & STR

Occupancy will grow faster than after the 1991 and 2001 recessions
12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% -4.0% -8.0% -12.0%

Percent Change in Supply

Percent Change in Occupancy
Source: HVS & STR

Hotels prosper during periods of high inflation similar to the late 1970s as ADR keeps pace with inflation
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 2000 2 2002 2 2004 2 2006 2 2008 2 2010 2 2012 2 2014 ADR Change
Source: HVS & STR

Caused by high inflation i fl ti

Only historical years where rate declined

10%

15%

20%

-10% 0% 5% -5%

ADR change usually exceeds CPI change

CPI Change ADR Change
Source: HVS & STR

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 2000 2 2002 2 2004 2 2006 2 2008 2 2010 2 2012 2 2014

Hotel values will rebound to peak levels in 2014
$120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $1 1987 1 1989 1 1991 1 1993 1 1995 1 1997 1 1999 2 2001 2 2003 2 2005 2 2007 2 2009 2 2011 2 2013 2 2015

-45% -25% -32% +99%

Average Hotel Value Per Room
Source: HVS

Estimated Change in Value Per Room: 2009 – The Worst Year
-$150,000 $150 000 -$100,000 $100 000 -$50,000 $50 000 $0 $50,000 $50 000 $100,000 $100 000

Washington DC WPB - Boca Raton Houston Portland y Salt Lake City St. Louis Cincinnati Oakland United States Detroit Orlando Phoenix Chicago Las Vegas Los Angeles San Francisco Oahu Miami New York

Source: HVS

Estimated Change in Value Per Room: 2008 to 2010 – The Worst Period
-$300,000 $300 000 -$200,000 $200 000 -$100,000 $100 000 $0 $100,000 $100 000 $200,000 $200 000

Washington DC Houston WPB - Boca Raton United States Baltimore Orlando Fort Lauderdale Los Angeles Chicago Phoenix Miami Oahu Las Vegas New York
Source: HVS

Estimated Change in Value Per Room: 2010 to 2013 – Recovery
-$100,000 $100 000 $0 $100,000 $100 000 $200,000 $200 000 $300,000 $300 000 $400,000 $400 000

New York g Washington DC Boston Miami Oahu Seattle San Diego San Francisco San Jose Los Angeles United States Cleveland Kansas City Indianapolis Greensboro Norfolk Albuquerque Detroit Las Vegas

Source: HVS

Bullish Markets – Buy!
2009 • Washington DC • Houston 2010 • New York • Boston • Miami • San Diego • San Francisco

Bearish Markets – Sell!

• Las Vegas • Detroit

Building Strategy

• Buy existing hotels in 2009 and 2010 • St t building in 2011 Start b ildi i

Valuation Challenges
• Very few transaction comparables y p • Difficult to obtain acquisition financing
– Low leverage – Higher interest rates – L k of d bt capital Lack f debt it l

• Unknown economic recovery timetable • Market vs. Liquidation value concept

Market vs. Liquidation Value
Market Value • Willing Seller Liquidation Value • Unwilling Seller – facing foreclosure/bankruptcy

• Seller under extreme • Neither Buyer nor Seller pressure to sell under pressure to buy or sell • Sufficient time to expose the • Limited time to adequately market and sell hotel hotel to all market participants – Inadequate marketing time = less than 1 year – Current adequate marketing time: 1-2 years • Di Discount 20% 50% b l t 20%-50% below market value

Typical Hotel Buyer Methodology
• Normal forecast of Income and Expense based p on local supply, demand, rate and occupancy p expectations • Cost of capital (cap rate) based on either low leverage debt or an all-equity financing all equity structure • Assumed financial recovery where higher leverage debt becomes available at some point in the future

New Valuation Assumptions

Purchase with 50% LTV or all equity

Refinance in 2012 with 70% LTV

Sell in 2018

Valuation per Room using New Valuation Approach
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Plus: Net Income Total Cash Available for Total Annual Refi/Sales Flow to Debt Service Debt Service Proceeds Equity $6,675 $3,225 $3,450 5,556 6 3,225 3 22 2,331 2 331 5,181 3,225 1,956 5,728 5 728 3,225 3 225 $41,104 $41 104 43,606 43 606 7,210 6,442 768 9,433 6,442 2,991 11,593 6,442 5,498 11,940 6,442 5,856 12,298 6,442 6,225 12,667 6,442 60,271 66,496

Refinance

Sell

Valuation per Room using New Valuation Approach
Total Cash Present $1 Flow to Worth of $ at 19% Year Equity $ , $3,450 0.8403 2009 2010 2,331 0.7062 2011 1,956 0.5934 2012 43,606 43 606 0.4987 0 4987 2013 768 0.4195 2014 2,991 0.3521 2015 5,498 0.2960 2016 5,856 0.2487 2017 6,225 6 225 0.2090 0 2090 2018 66,496 0.1756 Value of Equity Component Plus: Value of Initial Mortgage Total Property Value Discounted Cash Flow $ , $2,988 1,646 1,161 21,745 21 745 322 1,053 1,524 1,367 1,224 1 224 11,676 $44,619 $36,369 $80,998

Valuation Comparison

2009 Initial Equity

2012 LTV Refinancing

Value Per Room

50% 50% 100% 100% 100%

75% 65% 70% 65% None N

$81,000 $79,500 $70,100 $ $69,500 $69 500 $55,500 $55 500

Observations & Strategies
• Past recessions show that lowering rate rarely g y induces demand • This cycle will adversely impact y y p
– luxury segment – convention and group hotels g p – commercial hotels with negotiated corporate rates

• The unavailability of financing to refinance acquisitions and end of term loans will force a greater number of hotel owners and lenders to quickly dispose of their hotels – thus realizing liquidation not market value

Observations & Strategies
• In past cycles, lenders who took back hotels p y , and held on to them for values to recover made q out far better than those who looked for a quick sale • If borrowers are honest maintaining their honest, properties, and paying taxes and insurance, then lenders have little to gain by foreclosing • If you don’t have to sell – hold on – values will start to recover in 2011

Observations & Strategies
• Don’t let your lender or appraiser value y y pp your hotel using liquidation value or 10-year, all-equity assumptions – this was the problem with mark to market accounting valuations • If you have capital – attempt to buy down your mortgage – look for yields of 15% to 20% • 2009 and 2010 will be the best hotel buying opportunity since 1991 y y y • If you are a hotel buyer, don’t try to “time the market.” If you find a property that fits your investment criteria, you will get a good deal buying during 2009

Value Trend for a Typical U.S. Hotel
1987 Value Per Room V l P R Percent Change Per-Room Change 1993 Value Per Room Percent Change Per-Room Change Value Per Room Percent Change Per-Room Change Value Per Room Percent Change Per-Room Per Room Change Value Per Room Percent Change Per-Room Change $33,000 10.0% $3,000 1999 $61,000 1.7% $1,000 2005 $82,000 26.2% $17,000 $17 000 2011 $62,000 13.4% $7,000 1994 $37,000 12.1% $4,000 2000 $69,000 13.1% $8,000 2006 $100,000 22.0% $18,000 $18 000 2012 $79,000 26.1% $16,000 2013 $93,000 18.6% $15,000 $37,000 $37 000 1988 $37,000 $37 000 0.0% $0 1995 $45,000 21.6% $8,000 2001 $52,000 -24.6% -$17,000 2007 $95,000 -5.0% -$5,000 $5 000 2008 $81,000 -14.7% -$14,000 $14 000 2014 $103,000 10.7% $10,000 1989 $38,000 $38 000 2.7% $1,000 1990 $32,000 $32 000 -15.8% -$6,000 1996 $50,000 11.1% $5,000 2002 $52,000 0.0% $0 1991 $27,000 $27 000 -15.6% -$5,000 1997 $59,000 18.0% $9,000 2003 $51,000 -1.9% -$1,000 2009 $61,000 -24.7% -$20,000 $20 000 2015 $112,000 8.6% $9,000 1992 $30,000 $30 000 11.1% $3,000 1998 $60,000 1.7% $1,000 2004 $65,000 27.5% $14,000 2010 $55,000 -9.8% -$6,000 $6 000

Source: HVS

Steve Rushmore Biography
Steve Rushmore is the president and founder of HVS, a global hospitality consulting organization with more than 25 offices around the globe. He directs the worldwide operation of this firm and is responsible for future office expansion and new product development. Steve has provided consultation services for more than 15,000 hotels throughout the world during his 40-year career and specializes in complex issues involving hotel feasibility, valuations, and financing. He was one of the creators of the Microtel concept and was instrumental in its IPO. Steve is a partner in HEI Hospitality, LLC, a hotel investment fund, which makes him one of the few hospitality consultants that actually invest in and own hotels. As a leading authority and prolific author on the topic of hotel feasibility studies and appraisals appraisals, Steve Rushmore has written all five textbooks and two seminars for the Appraisal Institute covering this subject. He has also authored three reference books on hotel investing and has published more than 300 articles. He writes a column for Lodging Hospitality magazine and is widely quoted by major business and professional publications Steve lectures extensively on hotel trends and has publications. taught hundreds of classes and seminars to more than 20,000 industry professionals. Steve has a BS degree from the Cornell Hotel School and an MBA from the University of Buffalo. He holds MAI and FRICS appraisal designations and is a CHA (certified hotel administrator). He is a member of numerous hotel industry committees, including IREFAC and the NYU Hotel Investment Conference. In 1999, Steve was recognized by the New York chapter of the Cornell Hotel Society as "Hotelie of the Year.”

About HVS
HVS is a global hotel consulting organization with a network of more than 25 offices staffed by over 400 i d t professionals spread around th world. ffi t ff d b industry f i l d d the ld In today’s deteriorating economy, HVS has been called upon by leading hotel owners and operators to evaluate their hotel operations Drawing upon his operations. years of experience through several similar down-cycles, along with experience and data derived from performing thousands of hotel studies, Steve Rushmore and his team have recently focused on assisting hotel owners in understanding their current options. HVS specializes in assisting owners in structuring hotel workout strategies with lenders. To this end, HVS has the experience necessary to: • develop individual hotel market studies that assess local supply and demand dynamics y • evaluate the effectiveness of management and brand affiliation • project income and expense • determine a hotel’s ability to pay debt service during the down-cycle y y g y • predict the timing of the up-cycle and its velocity

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