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Traffic Revenue Study

Traffic Revenue Study

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Published by josephlord
Tolls study for the Ohio River Bridges Project.
Tolls study for the Ohio River Bridges Project.

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Published by: josephlord on Aug 30, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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05/01/2014

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Variable

Coefficient t-Statistic P-Stat

Constant

6.26

3.42

0.00

LOG(MSA Employment)

0.40

5.40

0.00

LOG(National Consumption)

0.58

2.13

0.03

R-squared

0.95

Adjusted R-squared

0.94

S.E. of regression

0.246

F-statistic

344

Prob (F-statistic)

0.00

Note: Seasonal monthly controls omitted from reporting; data for count station 92
was dropped from the estimation due to presumed reporting error

3.22

Once again the estimated parameters are highly significant. Since the model is
estimated with variables converted to logarithm forms, the estimated coefficients are
mathematically equivalent to elasticity measures. The elasticity estimates above
suggest that a 10% increase in MSA employment leads to a 4% increase in off-peak
traffic, while a 10% increase in consumption leads to a 5.8% increase in traffic.

3.23

Overall, both models perform very well in terms of their ability to replicate past
traffic trends. This measure is essentially the ability of the models to "forecast" the
past given actual past values for the economic variables. Despite some variability,
most time traffic observations are replicated by the models with well under 5% error,
again indicating good model fit.

3.24

The forecasts of overall traffic growth in the region are generated using forecasts for
MSA employment and national consumption obtained from Moody’s Economy.com. For
the forecast period from 2011 to 2030, Moody’s forecasts MSA employment and
national consumption to grow annually at 0.35% and 2.1%, respectively.

3.25

The resulting growth forecasts are very similar for peak and off-peak: Between 2011
and 2018 peak period traffic is forecast to increase 12.6% and off-peak 12.2%.

Final Report

29

Similarly, growth between 2011 and 2030 is forecast to be 27% and 25.9% overall. On
an annual basis, growth is forecast to average 1.25% for peak period and 1.23% for off-
peak between 2011 and 2030.

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