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    The United Nations World Water Development Report 4

    Uploaded by

    Sebástian Burgos

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 909

    Cultural Organization

    Educational, Scientific and


    United Nations
    Report
    ManagingWater
    under Uncertainty
    andRisk

    THE UNITED NATIONS WORLD WATER
    DEVELOPMENT REPORT 4
    VOLUME 1
    ManagingWater
    under Uncertainty
    andRisk

    THE UNITED NATIONS WORLD WATER
    DEVELOPMENT REPORT 4
    VOLUME 1
    WWDR4hasbeenpublishedonbehalfoftheUnitedNationsWorld
    WaterAssessmentProgramme(WWAP)withthesupportofthe
    followingorganizations:
    UnitedNationsFundsandProgrammes
    UnitedNationsChildrensFund(UNICEF)
    UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD)
    UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAfairs
    (UNDESA)
    UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP)
    UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)
    UnitedNationsHighCommissionerforRefugees(UNHCR)
    UnitedNationsHumanSettlementsProgramme(UN-HABITAT)
    UnitedNationsUniversity(UNU)
    SpecializedUNAgencies
    FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)
    InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA)
    InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment
    (WorldBank)
    InternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment(IFAD)
    InternationalLabourOrganization(ILO)
    UnitedNationsEducational,ScienticandCulturalOrganization
    (UNESCO)
    UnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization(UNIDO)
    UnitedNationsInstituteforTrainingandResearch(UNITAR)
    WorldHealthOrganization(WHO)
    WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)
    WorldTourismOrganization(UNWTO)
    UnitedNationsRegionalCommissions
    EconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacic
    (UNESCAP)
    EconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia(UNESCWA)
    EconomicCommissionforAfrica(UNECA)
    EconomicCommissionforEurope(UNECE)
    EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
    (UNECLAC)
    SecretariatsofUnitedNationsConventionsandDecades
    SecretariatoftheConventiontoCombatDesertication(UNCCD)
    SecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(CBD)
    SecretariatoftheInternationalStrategyforDisasterReduction
    (UNISDR)
    UnitedNationsClimateChangeSecretariat(UNFCCC)
    Publishedin2012bytheUnitedNationsEducational,
    ScienticandCulturalOrganization
    7,placedeFontenoy,75352Paris07SP,France
    UNESCO2012
    Allrightsreserved
    Chapter24,Investinginwaterinfrastructure,itsoperationandits
    maintenance,TheInternationalBankforReconstructionand
    Development/TheWorldBank
    1818HStreet,NW,Washington,DC20433,USA
    ISBN978-92-3-104235-5
    e-bookISBN978-92-3-001045-4
    Originaltitle:TheUnitedNationsWorldWaterDevelopment
    Report4:Managing Water under Uncertainty and Risk(Vol.1),
    Knowledge Base(Vol.2)andFacing the Challenges(Vol.3).
    Publishedin2012bytheUnitedNationsEducational,
    ScienticandCulturalOrganization
    UNESCOPublishing:http://publishing.unesco.org/
    Suggestedcitation:
    WWAP(WorldWaterAssessmentProgramme).2012.The United
    Nations World Water Development Report 4: Managing Water under
    Uncertainty and Risk.Paris,UNESCO.
    Thedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterial
    throughoutthispublicationdonotimplytheexpressionofany
    opinionwhatsoeveronthepartofUNESCOconcerningthelegal
    statusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,or
    concerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.
    Theideasandopinionsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseof
    theauthors;theyarenotnecessarilythoseofUNESCOanddonot
    committheOrganization.

    ThecontentsofVolume2werecontributedbytheUN-Water
    membersandpartnerslistedonthetitlepagesofthechapters
    therein.UNESCOandtheUnitedNationsWorldWaterAssessment
    Programme(WWAP)arenotresponsibleforerrorsinthecontent
    providedorfordiscrepanciesindataandcontentbetween
    contributedchapters.
    WWAPprovidedtheopportunityforindividualstobelistedas
    authorsandcontributorsortobeacknowledgedinVolume2.
    WWAPisnotresponsibleforanyomissionsinthisregard.

    CoverandinteriordesignandtypesettingbyPhoenixDesignAid
    A/S,anISO14001(environmentalmanagement)andaDS49001
    (corporatesocialresponsibility)certiedandapprovedcarbon
    neutralcompany.
    PrintedbyImprimerieCentraleS.A.(ImprimVertcertied)for
    UNESCOCLD,Paris.
    ThispublicationisprintedwithvegetableinksonFSCMixedSources
    paper,supportingresponsibleuseofforestreserves.Thisisacarbon
    neutralprintproduct.ImprimerieCentralewillcontributefundstoa
    projectreplantingtreesinPanamaforthispublication.
    Printed in Luxembourg
    Foreword v
    by Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General, United Nations
    Foreword vi
    by Irina Bokova, Director-General, United Nations Educational,
    Scientic and Cultural Organization
    Foreword vii
    by Michel Jarraud, Chair, UN-Water
    Preface
    by Olcay nver, Coordinator, United Nations World Water Assessment Programme viii
    Aknowledgements x
    Main Messages 1
    Introduction 17
    Whats new in the WWDR4 19
    Structure and content 20
    Chapter 1. Recognizing the centrality of water and its global dimensions 22
    1.1 Beyond the concept of water as a sector 24
    1.2 Beyond the basin: The international and global dimensions of water governance 29
    1.3 Recognizing water in global policy 35
    Conclusion 39
    PART 1. STATUS, TRENDS AND CHALLENGES
    Chapter 2. Water demand: What drives consumption? 44
    2.1 Food and agriculture 46
    2.2 Energy 52
    2.3 Industry 59
    2.4 Human settlements 64
    2.5 Ecosystems 69
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    WWDR4 i TABLEOFCONTENTS
    Chapter 3. The water resource: Variability, vulnerability and uncertainty 77
    3.1 The hydrological cycle, external stressors on water resources, and sources of uncertainty 79
    3.2 The vulnerability of natural long-term storage: Groundwater and glaciers 83
    3.3 Water quality 94
    Chapter 4. Beyond demand: Waters social and environmental benets 101
    4.1 Water and human health 103
    4.2 Water and gender 109
    4.3 Ecosystem health 110
    4.4 Water-related hazard risk 115
    4.5 Impact of desertication on water resources 119
    4.6 In or out of balance? 123
    Chapter 5. Water management, institutions and capacity development 133
    5.1 Why do we need to manage water? 135
    5.2 The importance of water institutions for sustainable development 141
    5.3 Institutional knowledge and capacity 147
    Chapter 6. From raw data to informed decisions 157
    6.1 Data, monitoring and the purpose of indicators 159
    6.2 Key indicators 162
    6.3 State of data and information 165
    6.4 Constraints on better monitoring and reporting 167
    6.5 Improving the ow of data and information 168
    Chapter 7. Regional challenges, global impacts 174
    7.1 Africa 176
    7.2 Europe and North America 184
    7.3 Asia-Pacic 192
    7.4 Latin America and the Caribbean 198
    7.5 Arab and Western Asia region 207
    7.6 Regionalglobal links: Impacts and challenges 215
    PART 2. MANAGING WATER UNDER UNCERTAINTY AND RISK
    Introduction 230
    Acting in an environment of uncertain change 231
    Chapter 8. Working under uncertainty and managing risk 235
    8.1 Concepts of uncertainty and risk 237
    8.2 How uncertainty and risk afect decision-making 240
    8.3 Using ecosystems to manage uncertainty and risk 249
    Chapter 9. Understanding uncertainty and risks associated with key drivers 259
    9.1 Possible evolution of key drivers 261
    9.2 Responding to the challenges: The past is a poor guide to an uncertain future 266
    9.3 Peering into possible futures 268
    9.4 Water futures for better decision-making 274
    ii MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    Chapter 10. Unvalued water leads to an uncertain future 276
    10.1 The political economy of investing in water: Stating the benets 278
    10.2 Valuing water 281
    10.3 Using benets and values to inform water policies 284
    10.4 Allocating water under conditions of risk and uncertainty 284
    Chapter 11. Transforming water management institutions to deal with change 289
    11.1 Introduction 291
    11.2 Principles for managing water under risk and uncertainty 293
    11.3 Approaches for managing water under risk and uncertainty 295
    11.4 Institutions for managing risk and uncertainty 298
    11.5 Communicating risk and uncertainty 303
    Conclusion 306
    Chapter 12. Investment and nancing in water for a more sustainable future 309
    12.1 Investing in water for sustainable development 311
    12.2 Funding governance, institutional reform and management 313
    12.3 Funding for information 314
    12.4 Funding in response to climate change and growing water scarcity 315
    12.5 Funding diversication and demand management 317
    12.6 Generating nance for water infrastructure and services 318
    12.7 Mitigating nancial and political risks 320
    Conclusion 321
    Chapter 13. Responses to risk and uncertainty from a water management perspective 325
    13.1 Reducing uncertainty 327
    13.2. Reducing exposure to threat and minimizing risks 334
    13.3 Living with risks and uncertainties: Trade-ofs in water decision-making 339
    Chapter 14. Responses to risks and uncertainties from out of the water box 343
    14.1 Reducing poverty and greening growth and economies 345
    14.2 Responding to climate change: Adaptation and mitigation 345
    14.3 Business decisions to reduce risk and uncertainties 347
    14.4 Managing sectoral risks to generate benets to water 349
    14.5 Mitigating risks and uncertainties 352
    Conclusion 354
    Conclusions 356
    List of boxes, tables, gures and maps 361
    Abbreviations and acronyms 365
    Glossary 370
    Index xiii
    WWDR4 iii TABLEOFCONTENTS
    Waterlinksthelocaltotheregional,andbringstogetherglobalquestionsoffoodsecurity,publichealth,
    urbanizationandenergy.Addressinghowweuseandmanagewaterresourcesiscentraltosettingtheworldona
    moresustainableandequitablepath.
    Universalaccesstosafedrinkingwaterandwaterresourcesisanimperativethatcutsacrossallinternationally
    agreeddevelopmentobjectives,includingtheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.Improvingaccesstowaterimproves
    healthandeducationoutcomes.Itincreasesagriculturalproductivity.Itisaforceforgenderequalityand
    womensempowerment.
    Yetpressuresonfreshwaterarerisingfromtheexpandingneedsofagriculture,foodproductionandenergy
    consumptiontopollutionandtheweaknessesofwatermanagement.Climatechangeisarealandgrowingthreat.
    Withoutgoodplanningandadaptation,hundredsofmillionsofpeopleareatriskofhunger,disease,energy
    shortagesandpoverty.
    ThisfourtheditionoftheWorld Water Development ReportistheproductofsynergywithintheUnitedNations
    system,inparticulartheUnitedNationsWorldWaterAssessmentProgrammehostedbyUNESCO.Itshinesa
    spotlightonwateruse,analysesthequestionofmanagingwaterunderuncertainty,andaddressesgenderissues
    throughout.Theresultisacalltoactiontostrengthenmechanismsofglobalcoordination,toimprovenational
    institutionsandtoweavethetwolevelsmoretightlytogether.
    ThisreportisalsointendedtocontributetotheRio+20UnitedNationsConferenceonSustainableDevelopment.If
    Rio+20istosucceed,itmustrenewpoliticalcommitmenttointegratedapproachestothesustainablemanagement
    oftheworldsfreshwaterresources.Justaswateriscentraltoeveryaspectoflifeonearth,itmustlieattheheart
    ofthenewvisionweforgeforsustainabledevelopmentforthecenturyahead.
    BanKi-moon
    FOREWORD
    by Ban Ki-moon
    Secretary-General of the United Nations

    WWDR4 v FOREWORD
    BanKi-moon
    VI
    Whatisthestateoftheworldsfreshwatertoday?Whatcanweexpectinthefuture?Whatmustwedonowto
    preparebetterfortomorrow?
    Thesequestionsconcerntheabilityofwomenandmenacrosstheworldtoliveindignity.Theytouchuponthe
    needtomanagesustainablytheearthsincreasinglyniteresources.Theygototheheartofallefortstoreach
    internationallyagreeddevelopmentgoals,includingtheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.Freshwaterisacoreissue
    forsustainabledevelopmentanditisslippingthroughthecracks.
    Weneednewleadershiponfreshwatertoday.Thisleadershipmustbringtogetherthemultitudeofactorsinvolved
    inusingandmanagingwater.Itmustlinkdiferentsectorsandactivitiesintoacoherentwhole.Itmustjointhelocal
    withthenational,andtheregionaltotheglobal.Wemustmanagefreshwatermoresustainablyinordertomake
    themostofitforthebenetofall.Forthis,weneedaclearmapofwherewestand.
    ThefourtheditionoftheWorld Water Development Report providesthismap.HostedbyUNESCO,theUnited
    NationsWorldWaterAssessmentProgrammehasbroughttogethermembersandpartnersofUN-Watertodraw
    auniquepictureofthestate,useandmanagementoftheworldsfreshwaterresources.Thereporthighlights
    diferentregionsandexaminestheglobalpressuresofuncertaintyandrisk.Iamespeciallypleasedthatgender
    issuesaremainstreamedthroughouttheanalysis.
    Theconclusionsareclear.Freshwaterisacross-cuttingissuethatiscentraltoalldevelopmenteforts.Itfacesrising
    challengesacrosstheworldfromurbanizationandoverconsumption,fromunderinvestmentandlackofcapacity,
    frompoormanagementandwaste,fromthedemandsofagriculture,energyandfoodproduction.Freshwateris
    notbeingusedsustainablyaccordingtoneedsanddemands.Accurateinformationremainsdisparate,and
    managementisfragmented.Inthiscontext,thefutureisincreasinglyuncertain,andrisksaresettodeepen.
    Ifwefailtodaytomakewateraninstrumentofpeace,itmightbecometomorrowamajorsourceofconict.
    Morethanever,weneedIntegratedWaterResourcesManagementtoprovidecoherentleadership.Weneedbetter
    informationgatheringandsharingonthestateoffreshwater,onthenatureofdemandanditsuse.Weneedbetter
    systemsformeasurementandcontrolatthelocal,nationalandgloballevels.Wemuststartearly,bybuildingwater
    issuesintoeducation.Weneedalsoforgovernments,theprivatesectorandcivilsocietytoworkmoreclosely
    togetherandtointegratewaterasanintrinsicpartoftheirdecision-making.
    OurnextstepmustbetakeninRio,bytheUnitedNationsConferenceonSustainableDevelopment.Rio+20must
    setaroadmapforthetwenty-rstcenturythatincludesanewdirectionforthesustainableuseandmanagement
    oftheworldsfreshwaterresources.Wateristheconditionforlife;itisvitalforsustainabledevelopmentandfor
    lastingpeace.Wemustacttodaytoprotectittomorrow.Thismeansmovingrmlyinthedirectionchartedbythe
    World Water Development Report.
    IrinaBokova
    FOREWORD
    by Irina Bokova
    Director-General of UNESCO

    VI
    IrinaBokova
    WWDR4 VII
    ItisanhonourandapleasuretohavebeeninvitedtoprovidemybriefremarkstothefourtheditionoftheUnited
    NationsWorld Water Development Report.
    ThereportistheresultofabroadcollectiveteamworkofUN-Wateragenciesandpartners,implementedthrough
    itsWorldWaterAssessmentProgramme,inparticulartomeetthechallenges,risksanduncertaintiesblockingthe
    roadtosustainabledevelopmentandtheachievementoftheUNMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.
    Today,waterissuesarepositionedhigherthaneverontheinternationalagenda,thanksinparticulartotheinspired
    leadershipoftheUNSecretary-General,whohasexpressedthatSafe drinking water and basic sanitation are
    intrinsic to human survival, well-being and dignity.
    Thecross-cuttingnatureofwaterandthevitalimplicationsofinternationalcollaborationinthiskeyarea,spurred
    bytheUNSystemactingAs OnethroughUN-Water,areintrinsicelementsoftheUN-Watermissionstatementand
    therebyessentialforouractionstoprovideknowledge,toolsandskillstovarioussocio-economicsectorsandto
    propuphigh-leveldecision-makingatglobal,regionalandlocalscales.
    Thisisespeciallysignicantattimesofsuchcrisesasweencountertodaywhen,forexample,severalconsecutive
    seasonsofdroughtintheHornofAfricahaveleftmillionsontheborderlineofsurvival,therebyrequiring
    emergencyfoodassistanceaswellassanitation,energygeneration,andmanyotherformsofsupportindisaster
    riskreduction.
    IlookforwardtodeliveringtheimportantmessagesofthiskeyreportinRioinJune2012.However,sinceIhave
    takenofceveryrecentlyasUN-WaterChair,IwishtounderscorethatImakenoclaimofpersonalmeritforthis
    achievementwhichreectstheresultsofthreeyearsofcollectiveUN-Watereforts.
    MichelJarraud
    FOREWORD
    by Michel Jarraud
    UN-Water Chair and Secretary-General of WMO

    WWDR4 vii FOREWORD


    Michel Jarraud
    VIII
    ReleasedeverythreeyearssinceMarch2003,theUnitedNationsWorld Water Development Report (WWDR),a
    agshipUN-WaterreportpublishedbyUNESCO,hasbecomethevoiceoftheUnitedNationssystemintermsofthe
    state,useandmanagementoftheworldsfreshwaterresources.Thereportisprimarilytargetedatnational
    decision-makersandwaterresourcemanagers,butisalsoaimedateducatingandinformingabroaderaudience,
    fromgovernmentstotheprivatesectorandcivilsociety.Itunderlinestheimportantroleswaterplaysinallsocial,
    economicandenvironmentaldecisions,highlightingpolicyimplicationsacrossvarioussectors,fromlocaland
    municipaltoregionalandinternationallevels.
    CoordinatedbytheWorldWaterAssessmentProgramme(WWAP),thisfourtheditionoftheWWDRistheresultof
    aconcertedthree-yearefortbyUN-Wateragencies,incollaborationwithdozensofscientists,professionals,NGOs
    andotherUN-Waterpartners.Thereportaddressesthemostsalientstrategicandtechnicalaspectsrelatingtohow
    andwhyweneedtouse,manageandallocatewatertomeetmultiple,oftencompetinggoals,fromallmajorpolicy
    directionsfrompovertyalleviationandhumanhealthtofoodandenergysecurityandenvironmentalstewardship.
    Indescribinghowwaterunderpinsallaspectsofdevelopment,thereportprovidesacriticalpointofreferencefor
    linkingwatertoglobalpolicytracks,suchasthoseforpovertyeradication,includingtheMillenniumDevelopment
    Goals;sustainabledevelopment,theRio+20process;climatechange,andtherespectiveCOPprocess.
    Whilethereportisfactual,containingthemostcurrentinformationavailableconcerningthestateofknowledge
    aboutourwaterresourcesandcoveringthemostrecentdevelopmentsthatafectit,thereportalsoprovides
    decision-makerswithconcreteexamplesofapproachesandpotentialresponsesforaddressingwater-related
    challengesfrombothawatermanagementperspectiveandabroaderpoliticalandsectoralscope,whichcovers
    development,nancing,capacity-buildingandinstitutionalreform.
    ThefourtheditionoftheWWDRbuildsuponthepreviousthreeeditions.Similarlytothersttwoeditions,it
    includesacomprehensiveandup-to-dateassessmentofseveralkeychallengeareas,suchaswaterforfood,energy
    andhumanhealth,andgovernancechallengessuchasinstitutionalreform,knowledgeandcapacity-building,and
    nancing,eachproducedbyindividualUNagencies.And,asinthethirdedition,thereportofersaholisticand
    integratedapproachtoexaminingthelinksbetweenwaterandthedriversthatcreatepressuresontheresource,
    climatechange,ecosystemsandvariousaspectsofhumansecurityasembodiedundertheMillenniumDevelopment
    Goalsandotherkeyglobalpolicytracks.Thisfourtheditionalsocontinuestofocusonhowdecisionsmadeoutside
    thewaterboxafecttheresourcesandotherusers,linkingwatertoanumberofcross-cuttingissues.Throughthis
    approach,thereportillustrateshowinteractionsbetweenwaterandamultiplicityofexternalitiescanbeincorporated
    intoanalysesanddecision-makingprocessesinvarioussectorsanddomains.Itisfortuitousthatthereleasedate
    forthisreportoccursafewmonthspriortotheRio+20EarthSummit,thusprovidingasoundbasisfordiscussions
    onthefutureofourplanetinwhichthecentralityofwatercanbeclearlyhighlighted.
    Severalnewelementshavealsobeenaddedtothisfourtheditionofthereport.Forthersttimesincetheinception
    oftheseries,theWWDR4hasbeendevelopedunderanoverarchingthemeManagingWaterunderUncertainty
    andRiskwhichhasservedasaguidefortheauthorsandcollaboratingagencies,allowingforthestreamliningof
    themanydiferentwrittencontributionsintoacohesivenarrative.Second,thereporthasbeenenrichedbythe
    additionofveregionalreportsthroughtheefortsoftheveRegionalUNEconomicCommissions,which
    complementthechallengeareareportsbyoferingamoregeographicallyfocusedexaminationoftheissuesand
    PREFACE
    by Olcay nver
    Coordinator, United Nations World Water Assessment
    Programme

    VIII
    WWDR4 IX
    challengesrelatedtowater,includingtheidenticationofcriticalhotspots.Third,thiseditionreportsontheresults
    oftherstphaseoftheWWAPWorldWaterScenariosProject,whichexaminespossiblefuturedevelopmentsin
    externalitiesthatimpingeuponwaterstressandsustainability.Finally,theentirereportunderwentagender
    mainstreamingexercisetoensurethattheimportantgenderandsocial-equityissueswereproperlyandsystematically
    addressed,andanewchapterspecicallyfocusedongenderandwaterhasbeenincludedinthisedition.
    Inordertohelpcountriesimprovetheirself-assessmentcapabilitybybuildingonexistingstrengthsandexperiences,
    thereportisonceagainaccompaniedbyasetofcasestudiesfromcountriesaroundtheworldhighlightingthe
    stateofwaterresourceswherediferentphysical,climaticandsocio-economicconditionsprevail.
    AseriesofcollectiveandcollaborativeefortshasledtoahighlycomprehensiveandintegratedWWDR.Coordinating
    thefourteenchallengeareareports,veregionalreportsandthreespecialreportsthatmakeupthechaptersin
    Volume2,aswellasthesupplementarymaterialandthemultitudeofcommentsfrompartners,reviewersandthe
    generalpublicoverthreeyearswasachallengingprocess.ThemembersofWWAPsTechnicalAdvisoryCommittee
    wereparticularlygenerousinprovidinginsightandexpertisetotheproductionteam.Givensuchabroadscopeof
    expertiseoversuchawiderangeofinterestsandsectorsforwhichwaterisavitalcomponent,afocusedanalysis
    wasrequiredtoachieveabalancedstructuretothereportandtoprovidethemostup-to-dateknowledgeand
    informationinaconsistentandharmoniousmanner.
    Itishopedthatthisreport,likeitspreviouseditions,willcontinuetobethemainreferencedocumentaboutwater
    andthecentralroleitplaysinallaspectsofhumandevelopment,thatitwillcontinuetobeconsideredasessential
    readingfordecision-makers,theiradvisorsandanyoneinterestedinandconcernedaboutthestateandtheuse
    ofourplanetsfreshwaterresources,andthatthiseditionwillreachanever-wideningaudiencethatincludesactors
    outsidethewaterboxwhomakeorinuencebroadsocio-economicpoliciesthatafectwater.
    OnbehalfofthestafofWWAPandtheauthors,writers,editorsandcontributorsofthefourtheditionofthe
    WWDR,IextendmysincerestappreciationtothemembersofUN-Wateranditspartnersinproducingthisauthoritative
    andcriticallyimportantreportthatwillserveastheknowledgebaseforunderstandingandsolvingwater-related
    challengesaroundtheworld.AspecialwordofthanksgoestoIrinaBokova,Director-GeneralofUNESCO,without
    whosecrucialsupportthisreportwouldnotbecompleted.Lastbutnottheleast,myundyinggratitudegoestoall
    membersoftheWWAPSecretariat,whosenamesarelistedinAcknowledgements,fortheirprofessionalismand
    ceaselessefortsincompletingthereport.
    Olcaynver
    WWDR4 ix PREFACE
    Olcaynver
    ThisreportwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutnancialsupportfromtheItalianGovernmentandthe
    contributionsofmanyindividualsandorganizationsfromaroundtheworld.
    ThepersonalsupportofMsIrinaBokova,Director-GeneraloftheUnitedNationsEducational,ScienticandCultural
    Organization(UNESCO)createdasecureandenablingenvironment.
    TheexcellentcollaborationandtimelycontributionsfromtheorganizationsthatmakeupUN-Wateranditspartners
    werecriticalthroughoutthepreparationofthereport,fromtheinitialconceptualdiscussionsontothenal
    clearancestages,andthroughnumerousexchangesandconsultationsinbetween.
    WethankthemanagementoftheUNESCONaturalSciencesSectorandcolleaguesoftheUNESCOInternational
    HydrologicalProgramme(IHP)fortheirsupport.
    ThecontributionsandcounsellingofAlbertWright,JosueDione,Bai-MassTaal,StephenMaxwellKwameDonkor
    andMembersofUNWater/AfricawereessentialtothesuccessfulcompletionofthechapteronAfricaandto
    varioussectionsofthereportfocusingontheregion.
    AgreatdealofappreciationisextendedtoDavidCoates,GerryGalloway,JackMoss,MikeMullerandUriShamirfor
    theirextraordinaryadviceandspecialcontributionstothereport.
    WealsothankAquafed,theGlobalWaterPartnership(GWP)andtheUSArmyCorpsofEngineers(USACE)for
    theirsubstantialandsubstantivesupport.
    Aspecialacknowledgementgoestoallofthecasestudypartnerswhovolunteeredtheireforts,withoutwhich
    Volume3wouldnotbepossible.SpecialthankstoLauraDubinandMateoGallegoforassistancewiththisvolume.
    TherightstotwentybeautifulphotographsweregraciouslydonatedbyPhillipeBourseillerforusethroughoutthe
    reportandinaccompanyingmaterial.Thanksalsogotoallotherindividualswhoprovidedphotographs(whose
    namesarelistedwiththephotographs).
    WWDR4Team
    ContentCoordinator
    Olcaynver
    LeadAuthor
    RichardConnor
    ContributingLeadAuthor(Part2)
    DanielP.Loucks
    SeniorAdvisor
    WilliamJ.Cosgrove
    ProcessCoordinator
    SimoneGrego
    CaseStudiesandIndicatorsCoordinatorandVolume3Author
    EnginKoncagl
    PublicationCoordinator
    AliceFranek
    ProcessandPublicationAssistant
    ValentinaAbete
    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
    X
    EditorialTeam:CarolineAndrzejewski,AdrienneCullen,BonnieDash,AliceFranek,MariaKelty,DavidMcDonald,
    MarilynSmith,SamanthaWauchopeandPicaPublishing.
    Volume3mapdesignandeditorialcoordination:RobertoRossiatPicaPublishing.
    SpecialthanksareextendedtoLeneSjbergandherdesignandlayoutteamatPhoenixDesignAid.
    UnitedNationsWorldWaterAssessmentProgramme
    Donors
    MinistryoftheEnvironment,LandandSeaofItaly
    GovernmentoftheRegionofUmbria,Italy
    TheNorwegianMinistryofForeignAfairsnanciallycontributedtothendingsdescribedinChapter9.
    TechnicalAdvisoryCommittee:UriShamir(Chair),DipakGyawali(DeputyChair),FatmaAbdelRahmanAttia,
    AndersBerntell,MukuteswaraGopalakrishnan,DanielP.Loucks(until15August2010),HenkvanSchaik,Laszlo
    Somlyody,LucioUbertiniandAlbertWright.
    AdvisoryGrouponGenderEquality:GlserCoratandKusumAthukorala(Co-Chairs),JoannaCorzo,IreneDankelman,
    ManalEid,AtefHamdy,DeepaJoshi,BarbaravanKoppen,KenzaRobinson,BuyelwaSonjicaandTheresaWasike.
    Secretariat:
    Olcaynver(Coordinator)andMichelaMiletto(DeputyCoordinator)
    ExecutiveAssistant:AdrianaFusco
    Administration:FlorianaBarcaioli,LisaGastaldin,BarbaraBracaglia,ArturoFrascaniandHakimShaukat
    Programmes:DanielPerna,EnginKoncagl,SimoneGregoandLnaSalam
    CommunicationsandNetworking:HannahEdwards,StfanieNno,SimonaGallese,FrancescaGrecoandAbigailParish
    Publications:AliceFranek,ValentinaAbeteandSamanthaWauchope
    Security:MicheleBrensacchi,FabioBianchiandFrancescoGiofredi
    TemporaryStaf:LeaMallingBernard,PietroFuscoandGabriellaPizzonia
    Interns:LauraDubin,SibelGner,PierpaoloPapiniPapiandSisiraSaddhamangalaWithanachchi
    Participantsatpreparatorymeetingsandworkshops
    1stMeetingoftheInterimCoreGroupfortheproductionoftheWWDR4,2325April2009,Paris,France.
    Participants:AkifAltundas,AliceAureli,RichardConnor,WilliamJ.Cosgrove,GilbertoGallopin,SimoneGrego,Engin
    Koncagl,MichelaMiletto,AnilMishra,JackMoss,MikeMuller,AndrasSzllsi-Nagy,StfanieNno,DanielPerna,
    WalterRast,Olcaynver,SamanthaWauchopeandJamesWinpenny.
    2ndMeetingoftheInterimCoreGroupfortheproductionoftheWWDR4,2129May2009,Perugia,Italy.
    Participants:RichardConnor,WilliamJ.Cosgrove,Jean-MarkFaurs,GeraldE.Galloway,SimoneGrego,Engin
    Koncagl,JohanKuylenstierna,MichelaMiletto,MikeMuller,StfanieNno,DanielPerna,WalterRast,JoanaTalafr,
    Olcaynver,JamesWinpennyandAlbertWright.
    WorkshopfortheproductionoftheWWDR4,14August2009,Stockholm,Sweden.Participants:UN-Water
    MembersandPartners,WWAPSecretariat.
    WWDR4 xi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
    xii
    IssuesWorkshopfortheproductionoftheWWDR4,1617November2009,Perugia,Italy.Participants:Yoganath
    Adik,GuyAlearts,KodwoAndah,KusumAthukorala,ReidBasher,AndersBerntell,PeterKoefoedBjrnsen,Giorgio
    Cesari,EmmanuelChinyamakobvu,ThomasChiramba,RudolphCleveringa,RichardConnor,WilliamJ.Cosgrove,
    AndreDzikus,KarenFrenken,GilbertoGallopin,JoakimHarlin,PierreHubert,AngeloIzzo,NancyKgengwenyane,
    SpyrosKleitsas,PeterKristensen,HenrikLarsen,LifengLi,JosenaMaestu,AnilMishra,JackMoss,MikeMuller,
    JohnsonOguntola,WalterRast,DavidTickner,HkanTropp,LucioUbertini,KonradVielhauer,EnriqueUrrutiaLpez
    deViaspreandJamesWinpenny.
    CoordinationMeetingonSubstance,1617March2010,Perugia,Italy.Participants:ReidBasher,PeterKoefoed
    Bjrnsen,ClaudioCaponi,EmmanuelChinyamakobvu,RudolphCleveringa,RichardConnor,WilliamJ.Cosgrove,
    RainerEnderlein,KarenFrenken,MattHare,MelvynKay,EricMimo,AnilMishra,DiegoRodriguez,KulwantSingh,
    HkanTroppandPieterVanDerZaag.
    WWAPCoreGroupMeetingWWDR4,1415March2011,Paris,France.Participants:AndersBerntell,Richard
    Connor,WilliamJ.Cosgrove,SimoneGrego,EnginKoncagl,DanielP.Loucks,MichelaMiletto,JackMoss,Henkvan
    Schaik,UriShamir,Olcaynver,JamesWinpennyandAlbertWright.
    Consultations
    Wethankparticipantsinthestakeholderconsultationslistedbelow(includingconsultationeventsandonline
    consultationsandsurveys)aswellasAndersBerntell,BekithembaGumbo,HowardPassel,WilliStruckmeierand
    KristinSchumannforsolicitedfeedback.
    -ShortsurveyonlessonslearntfromtheWWDR3process,JanuaryMarch2009
    -Consultationmeetingsatthe5thWorldWaterForum,March2009
    -WWDR3SideEventatthe5thWorldWaterForum,March2009
    -WWDR3ProductionTeammeeting,March2009
    -MeetingoftheWWAPTechnicalAdvisoryCommittee,March2009
    -1stUN-Waterandstakeholderselectronicsurveys,June2009
    -UN-WaterDelphi,July2009
    -SideEventattheStockholmWorldWaterWeek,August2009
    -Publicconsultationonthetableofcontents,January2010
    -Expertsurveyondrivers,April2010
    -SideEventattheStockholmWorldWaterWeek,August2010
    -SideEventatthe3rdAfricaWaterWeek,November2010
    -PublicconsultationonDraft1ofParts1and2,December2010
    -Policysurveyfordecision-makers,January2011
    -SideEventattheStockholmWorldWaterWeek,August2011
    We apologize for any inadvertent errors or omissions of contributors to the report.
    WWDR4 1 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA

    Compiledby WilliamJ.Cosgrove
    MAIN MESSAGES
    PhilippeBourseiller
    2
    Chapter1.Recognizingthecentralityofwaterandits
    globaldimensions
    Waterisacriticalnaturalresourceuponwhichallso-
    cialandeconomicactivitiesandecosystemfunctions
    depend.Managingwaterwellrequiresappropriate
    governancearrangementsthatmoveconsiderationsof
    waterfromthemarginsofgovernmenttothecentre
    ofsociety.Onnationalandlocalscales,appropriately
    fundedinfrastructureandadequatelyfundedrobust
    governancemechanismsarerequiredtoprotectwater
    resourcesandensuresustainabledevelopmentandthe
    equitabledistributionofwater-derivedbenets.
    Thecross-cuttingnatureoftheresourceanditsglobal
    dimensionsunderlinetheimportanceofaddressing
    waterissuesinthecontextofallexistinganddevelop-
    inginternationalprocesses.
    Therearemajoruncertaintiesabouttheamountof
    waterrequiredtomeetdemandforfood,energyand
    otherhumanuses,andtosustainecosystems.These
    uncertaintiesarecompoundedbytheimpactofcli-
    matechangeonavailablewaterresources.
    Greaterrecognitionisneededofthefactthatwateris
    notsolelyalocal,nationalorregionalissuethatcanbe
    governedatanyofthoselevelsalone.Onthecontra-
    ry,globalinterdependenciesarewoventhroughwater,
    anddecisionsrelatingtowateruseonalocal,national,
    riverbasinorregionalleveloftencannotbeisolated
    fromglobaldrivers,trendsanduncertainties.
    Waterdemandsandusesareoftenmanagedinsilos
    witheachfocusedonmeetingspecicdevelopmen-
    talobjectives,ratherthanaspartofanoverarching
    andstrategicframeworkthatbalancesdiferentwater
    usesinordertooptimizeandshareitsvariousbenets
    acrosssocietyandtheeconomy.Thisfragmentation
    increasesriskstothesustainabilityofwaterresources
    aswellastothediferentdevelopmentobjectivesthat
    dependupon(andmaybeincompetitionfor)limited
    supplies.Climatechangeexacerbatesthisproblemstill
    further.
    Thejobofdeliveringadequatewaterforsocial,eco-
    nomicandenvironmentalneedsisoftenunderstoodas
    thepreserveofthewatersector,whichisexpected
    toprovidetheappropriateinfrastructureandchannel
    waterintherightdirection.Yetinreality,watercuts
    acrossallsocial,economicandenvironmentalactivi-
    ties.Assuch,itcannotbeconnedtoonesector;its
    governancerequirescooperationandcoordination
    acrossdiversestakeholdersandsectoraljurisdictions.
    Furthermore,wateravailabilitymustbeunderstood
    withinthecontextofthehydrologicalcycle,whichis
    inuencedbymultiplefactors,trendsanduncertainties
    thatextendbeyondanarrowsectoralfocus.
    Climatechangeisacentralexternaldriverthatafects
    bothwateranddemandsforallusesdirectly;mitiga-
    tionmeasuresareconcentratedaroundthereduction
    ofenergyconsumptionandcarbonemissions,while
    adaptationmeansplanningandpreparingforin-
    creasinghydrologicalvariabilityandextremeweather
    events,includingoods,droughts,andstorms.
    Addressingwaterchallengesnecessitatesinterventions
    acrossanentireeconomy,undertakenbystronginsti-
    tutionswiththeauthorityandleadershiptotakeapro-
    activeratherthanareactiveroleinwatermanagement,
    andtodrivetheproductiveuseofwateracrosssectors
    withintheframeworkofenvironmentalsustainability.
    Membersofthewatercommunityhavethedutytoin-
    formandprovideguidanceondecision-makingandto
    regulatoryauthoritiesonhowtouseandmanagedthe
    resourcesustainably,soastooptimizeandshareits
    manybenets.
    Efciencyandproductivitygainsalonecannotalter
    globalpatternsofunequalsupplyofresourcesand
    consumptionoraccesstobenets.Addressingthe
    PeterProkosch/UNEP/GRID-Arendal(http://www.grida.no/photolib)
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 3
    cross-sectoralandglobaldimensionsofwaterwill
    requirethatallcountriestakeaninterestandmake
    speciccommitmentsintheglobalforumsdesigned
    toaddressandcreatesolutionstoimpendingresource
    challenges.Thewatercommunityingeneral,andwater
    managersinparticular,havetheresponsibilityofin-
    formingtheprocess.
    Implementingtheoutcomesfromglobalpolicyagree-
    mentswillremainanationalimperative,andcountries
    areresponsibleforsettinginternationalpolicyinthe
    rstplace.Settingtheframeworkrequiresawidening
    ofthesectoralandspatialhorizonsofallthosewho
    haveastakeinwatermanagement.However,many
    oftheglobalpolicyagreementshavebeendeveloped
    withoutproperlocalandnationalconsultationpro-
    cessesandare,inmanycases,generalagreements
    thatdonotreectthepoliticaleconomyandinstitu-
    tionalcapacitiesofthecountries,thuscompromising
    theoverallefectivenessofsaidpoliciesatnationaland
    subnationallevels.
    Part1:Status,trendsandchallenges
    Chapter2.Waterdemand:Whatdrivesconsumption?
    Agricultureaccountsfor70%ofallwaterwithdrawnby
    theagricultural,municipalandindustrial(includingen-
    ergy)sectors.Responsibleagriculturalwatermanage-
    mentwillmakeamajorcontributiontofutureglobal
    watersecurity.
    Predictingfuturewaterdemandforagricultureis
    fraughtwithuncertainty.Futuredemandforwaterin
    thissectorisinpartinuencedbydemandforfood,
    whichdependsinpartonthenumberofpeopleneed-
    ingtobefed,andinpartonwhatandhowmuchthey
    eat.Thisiscomplicatedby,amongstotherfactors,
    uncertaintiesinseasonalclimaticvariations,efciency
    ofagricultureproductionprocesses,andcroptypes
    andyields.
    Themainchallengefacingtheagriculturalsectorisnot
    asmuchgrowing70%morefoodin40years,butmak-
    ing70%morefoodavailableontheplate.Reducing
    lossesinstorageandalongthevaluechainmaygo
    alongwaytowardsofsettingtheneedformore
    production.
    Innovativetechnologieswillbeneededtoimprove
    cropyieldsanddroughttolerance;producesmarter
    waysofusingfertilizerandwater,newpesticidesand
    non-chemicalapproachestocropprotection;re-
    ducepostharvestlosses;andensuremoresustainable
    livestockandmarineproduction.Theindustrialized
    countriesarewellplacedtotakeadvantageofthese
    technologies,buttheymustalsotakeresponsibilityto
    ensurethattheleastdevelopedcountrieshaveoppor-
    tunitiestoaccessthemonequitableandnon-discrimi-
    natoryterms.
    TacoAnema
    MAINMESSAGES
    4
    morewater-efcienttechnologiestodevelopbothpri-
    maryenergyandelectricpower.
    Waterandenergypolicies,whichareoftenmadein
    diferentgovernmentdepartmentsorministries,will
    needtobeintegrated,withpolicy-makersincreasingly
    workinginclosecoordination.
    Efectiveoperationofanindustryrequiresasustain-
    ablesupplyofwaterintherightquantity,oftheright
    quality,attherightplace,attherighttimeandatthe
    rightprice.
    Industryshouldplayanimportantroleinefectively
    addressingtheunsustainableexploitationoffreshwa-
    terresourcesaroundtheworldbyaddressingrstits
    ownprioritiesandvalues.
    Theurbanpopulationoftheworldisforecasttogrow
    to6.3billionpeoplein2050,from3.4billionin2009.
    Urbangrowthwillbeequaltoalloftheworldpopula-
    tiongrowthoverthisperiodplussomenetmovesfrom
    thecurrentruralpopulation.Problemsofadequatewa-
    tersupply,sanitationanddrainagewillincreaseinthe
    urbanslumareasalreadyfacedwithabacklogofun-
    servedpopulations.Initiativesworldwideareemerging
    toaddresstheneedforimprovedandcomprehensive
    urbanwaterplanning,technologies,investmentand
    associatedoperations.
    Watermanagementinurbanareascanbenetfrom
    morecomprehensiveurbanplanningandintegrated
    urbanwatermanagement(IUWM).IUWMinvolves
    managingfreshwater,wastewaterandstormwateras
    linkswithintheresourcemanagementstructure,using
    anurbanareaastheunitofmanagement.
    Ecosystemsunderpintheavailabilityofwater,includ-
    ingitsextremesofdroughtandood,anditsquality.
    Growingattentiontoresolvingtheincreasingcom-
    petitionforwaterbetweenecosystemsandsocio-
    economicsectorssignalsprogresstowardsbetter
    integratedwatermanagementandmoresustainable
    development.
    Chapter3.Thewaterresource:Variability,
    vulnerabilityanduncertainty
    Freshwatersuppliesareerraticallydistributedin
    timeandspace.Fromoneyeartothenext,therecan
    beconsiderablevariabilitybetweenaridandhumid
    Reducingvulnerabilitytodroughtwillrequireinvest-
    mentinbothconstructedandgreeninfrastructureto
    improvewatermeasurementandcontroland,where
    appropriate,increasesurfacewaterandgroundwater
    storageinconstructedreservoirsandinnaturalstor-
    ageinwetlandsandinthesoil.
    Mostbenetsareexpectedtocomefromapplyingex-
    istingwatermanagementtechnologiesandadapting
    themtonewsituations.
    Over1billionpeoplelackaccesstoelectricityand
    othercleansourcesofenergytoday.Whenaddedto
    meetingtheseneeds,externalchallenges,including
    demographicdevelopmentfrompopulationincrease
    andmigrationandincreasedeconomicactivity,will
    createasurgeofenergyconsumption,particularlyin
    non-OECDcountries.
    Energyandwaterareintricatelyconnected.Thereare
    diferentsourcesofenergyandelectricity,butallre-
    quirewaterforvariousproductionprocesses,including
    extractionofrawmaterials,coolinginthermalprocess-
    es,cleaningmaterials,cultivationofcropsforbiofuels
    andpoweringturbines.Conversely,energyisrequired
    tomakewaterresourcesavailableforhumanuseand
    consumptionthroughpumping,transportation,treat-
    ment,desalinationandirrigation.
    Regionsthatarewaterscarcewillfacemorewater-for-
    energystressesthanothersandwillneedtoexplore
    PhilippeBourseiller
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 5
    Poorwaterqualityhasmanyeconomiccostsassociat-
    edwithit,includingdegradationofecosystemservices;
    health-relatedcosts;impactsoneconomicactivitiessuch
    asagriculture,industrialproductionandtourism;increased
    watertreatmentcosts;andreducedpropertyvalues.
    Withfreshwaterprojectedtobecomeanincreasingly
    scarceresourceinthecomingyears,thecostsassoci-
    atedwithaddressingwaterqualityproblemscanbe
    expectedtoincrease.
    Chapter4.Beyonddemand:Waterssocialand
    environmentalbenets
    Improvingwaterresourcemanagement,increasingac-
    cesstosafedrinkingwaterandbasicsanitationand
    promotinghygienehavethepotentialtoimprovethe
    qualityoflifeofbillionsofindividualsandarecritical
    fortheachievementofthegoalstoreducechildmor-
    tality,improvematernalhealthandreducetheburden
    ofwaterbornedisease.
    ApreventiveandcollaborativeapproachofWater
    SafetyPlanninghasdemonstratedbenets,including
    costsavingsandsustainableimprovementsinwa-
    terquality.Eachriskmanagementsolutionneedsto
    betailor-madetothewatersupplyinquestion,and
    demandsthatkeystakeholdersbecomeengagedand
    committedtoacommongoal.Theseincludelandus-
    ersorhouseholderswhomaydischargeindustrial,
    agriculturalordomesticwasteintoacatchmentarea,
    climatesandwetanddryseasons.Waterresource
    managementplansandpoliciesneedtotakeintoac-
    countthisvariabilityanddistributionoffreshwater
    supplies.
    Thestateofwaterresourcesisinuencedbywithdraw-
    alstomeetsocio-economicdemands.Thisinturnisaf-
    fectedbydriverssuchaspopulationgrowth,economic
    developmentanddietarychanges,aswellastheneed
    forcontrolofwaterresourcestoprotectsettlementsin
    oodplainsanddroughtproneregions.
    Theglobalgroundwaterabstractionratehasatleast
    tripledoverthepast50years.Thishasfundamentally
    changedtheroleofgroundwaterinhumansociety,in
    particularintheirrigationsector,whereithastrig-
    geredanagriculturalgroundwaterrevolution.
    Groundwateriscrucialforthelivelihoodsandfoodse-
    curityof1.2to1.5billionruralhouseholdsinthepoorer
    regionsofAfricaandAsia,andfordomesticsuppliesof
    alargepartofthepopulationelsewhereintheworld.
    Withdrawalsinmanybasinsareexceedingtherateof
    rechargeandareunsustainable.
    Inspiteofvalidconcernsaboutunsustainableabstrac-
    tionratesandpollutioninmanypartsoftheworld,
    groundwaterresourcesifcarefullymanagedcanmake
    asignicantcontributiontomeetingthedemandfor
    waterinthefutureandtoadaptingtoclimatechange.
    Theshrinkingofglaciersis,intheshortterm,adding
    watertostreamowsoverandaboveannualprecipi-
    tationandthusincreasingwatersupply;inthelong-
    erterm(decadestocenturies)asglaciersdisappear
    thoseadditionalsourcesofwaterwilldiminishandthe
    buferingefectsofglaciersonstreamowregimeswill
    lessen.
    Sufcientwatersupply,ofgoodquality,isakeyingre-
    dientinthehealthandwell-beingofhumansandeco-
    systemsandforsocio-economicdevelopment.Though
    therehavebeensomeregionalsuccessesinimproving
    waterquality,thereisnodatatosuggestthatthere
    hasbeenanoverallimprovementinwaterqualityona
    globalscale.
    Waterqualityisjustasimportantaswaterquantityforsat-
    isfyingbasichumanandenvironmentalneeds,yetithas
    receivedfarlessinvestment,scienticsupport,andpublic
    attentioninrecentdecadesthanwaterquantity.
    UNPhoto/KyChung
    MAINMESSAGES
    6
    reducestheirabilitytodeliverthebenetsweneed
    ecosystemstoprovide.
    Whilewearegettingbetteratsavinglives,savinglive-
    lihoodsandassetsremainsakeydevelopmentchal-
    lenge:water-relateddisastersareamajorobstacleto
    povertyreductionefortsandtomeetingdevelopment
    objectives,suchastheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.
    Oneofthemajorimpactsofdesertication,landdeg-
    radationanddrought(DLDD)associatedwaterscarci-
    tyisfeltthroughfoodinsecurityandstarvationamong
    afectedcommunities,particularlyindevelopingcoun-
    triesinthedrylands.
    IfdrylandcountriescouldreducetheimpactsofDLDD
    onwaterresourcesandachievewatersecurity,oppor-
    tunitiesofachievingfoodsecuritywouldbegreatly
    enhanced.
    Diferentdevelopmentalsectorsareoftenincompe-
    titionwitheachotherforthenitewaterresources
    uponwhichtheyalldepend.Whiletheycanbein
    competitionoverwater,itisclearthatallthebenets
    ofwaterarerequiredforsustainableeconomicdevel-
    opment.Incountriesandregionswherewaterresourc-
    esarelimited,decisionsmadetogeneratebenets
    throughwaterfromonesectoroftenproducenega-
    tiveconsequencesforothersectors.Uncertaintiesre-
    gardingfuturedemandsaddtothecomplexityofthe
    challenge.
    Wherewaterresourcesarelimited,certaintrade-ofs
    mayberequiredinordertoallocatewatertowardsdif-
    ferentusesinordertomaximizethevariousbenets
    waterprovidesthoughdiferentdevelopmentalsectors.
    Thisisacriticalyetdifcultandcomplexchallenge.
    Decisionsaboutwaterallocationarenotmerelysocial
    orethical,butarealsoeconomic,suchthatinvesting
    inwaterinfrastructureandmanagementgeneratesin-
    creasingreturnsthoughthesevariousbenets.
    Chapter5.Watermanagement,institutionsand
    capacitydevelopment
    Waterischaracterizedbythefactthatallbenetfrom
    itbutfewunderstandwhyandfeweractuallymanage
    it.
    Watermanagementrequiresamixofstructuraland
    non-structuraloptions.AdaptiveIntegratedWater
    ResourcesManagement(IWRM)canprovidethenec-
    essaryintegrationofwatermanagementacrosssec-
    tors,policiesandinstitutionsinacontinuousprocess
    policymakersfromvariousministriesoverseeingthe
    implementationandenforcementofenvironmental
    regulations,practitionersdeliveringwaterandcon-
    sumersatthetap.
    Poorwomenshoulderthebruntofeconomiccrises
    andwomenwithlesseducationtendtoincreasetheir
    workparticipationmoreintimesofcrisisinalmost
    everyregionoftheworld.
    Socialandnancialinvestmentalongwithpolicysup-
    porttoimprovewomensaccessandcontroloverwa-
    terresourceswillreducevulnerabilitytopovertyand
    enablewomentosecuresourcesoffoodandliveli-
    hoods,andtomaintainthehealthofthemselvesand
    theirfamilies.
    Ecosystemsdelivermultiplebenets(services)that
    areessentialforsustainabledevelopment.Manyof
    thesekeyservicesarederiveddirectlyfromwater,and
    allareunderpinnedbyit.Trendsinecosystemhealth,
    therefore,indicatetrendsinthedeliveryoftheseover-
    allbenetsandprovideakeyindicatorofwhetherwe
    areinoroutofbalancewithwater.
    Trendsinecosystems,includingthelifetheysupport,
    aretellingusthatthingsareoutofbalance.Policy-
    makersandmanagersneedtorecognizethatecosys-
    temsdonotconsumewatertheysupplyandrecycle
    itandwatertakenfromecosystemsunsustainably
    Shutterstock/MarkusGebauer
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 7
    ofadjustmentthatattemptstodealwiththeincreas-
    inglyrapidchangesinoursocieties,economies,cli-
    mateandtechnologies.
    Competingusergroups(e.g.waterutilities,farmers,
    industryandmining,communities,environmentalists)
    caninuencestrategiesforwaterresourcedevelopment
    andmanagement,meaningthattheprocessbecomes
    morepoliticalandlesspurelytechnicalasintegration
    occursandapotentialbasketofbenetsemerges.
    Watermanagementnowhastoaccountforunfore-
    seeablechangesinthenatureandtimingofissues
    likepopulationgrowth,migration,andglobalization,
    changingconsumptionpatterns,technologicaladvanc-
    es,andagriculturalandindustrialdevelopments.The
    spectreofclimatechangehasdrawnattentiontothe
    importanceoftheseandaddedanewdimension.
    Therulesofthegameforwaterareoftendictatedby
    actorsotherthanwatermanagers,andarenotsetwith
    waterastheircentralfocusorwiththerecognition
    ofitspivotalimportance.Makingcoherentdecisions,
    withthevarioustrade-ofstheyimply,callsforsome
    institutionalmachinerylinkingdecision-makersinkey
    sectorswiththoseresponsibleforwatermanagement.
    Awidergroupofstakeholdersneedstobeinvolvedin
    therule-settingprocess.
    Waterinstitutionsarestilllargelytechnologyandwater
    supplydriven.Toimprovetheefectivenessofthese
    institutions,theemphasishastograduallychange
    fromtechnologicalsolutionstomanagementofpro-
    cessesandpeople,involvinginclusivedecision-making
    andbottom-upapproaches.
    Atthenationallevel,itisessentialtoestablishsus-
    tainableframeworksforcapturing,storinganddis-
    seminatingdata,informationandknowledgetoall
    stakeholdersinthewatersector,thuscontributingto
    improveddecision-makingregardingwaterresource
    management.
    Atthecommunitylevel,concretestepstowardsshar-
    inginformationandknowledge,contributingtoim-
    proveddecision-makingandresourcemanagement
    canincludecreatingdialogueplatformsinvolvinglocal
    stakeholdersandtheirassistingserviceorganisations;
    forexample,governmentinstitutions,extensionser-
    vices,NGOsandotherserviceproviders.
    Chapter6.Fromrawdatatoinformeddecisions
    Informationaboutwatersupplyanduseisbecoming
    increasinglyimportanttonationalgovernments,who
    needreliableandobjectiveinformationaboutthestate
    ofwaterresources,theiruseandmanagement.
    Farmers,urbanplanners,drinkingwaterandwastewa-
    terutilities,thedisastermanagementcommunity,busi-
    nessandindustry,andenvironmentalistsallneedtobe
    informed.
    Thedatarequiredtopopulatetheindicatorsaresel-
    domsystematicallyorreliablyavailableataglobal,
    national,regionalorbasinlevel.Ifactualdataarenot
    obtained,trendswillnotbetracked,eveniftheyare
    substantial.
    Forthepurposesofplanninganddesign,engineers
    havetypicallyassumedthatthehydrologicalprocesses
    inaparticularwatershedorbasincouldbedescribed
    byprobabilitydistributionsthatwerenotchanging
    overtime;thatis,thehistoricalstatisticalcharacteris-
    ticsofthoseprocesseswereassumedessentiallycon-
    stantovertime,orstationary.Themoretheseextreme
    eventshappenduetochangesintheEarthsclimateor
    fromunpredictablehumanbehaviour,themorechal-
    lengingitistoplanandmanagewater.Thequestionis
    howbesttoincludethesenonstationarityconsidera-
    tionsofbothwatersupplyanddemandinwaterplan-
    ningandmanagement.
    UNPhoto/UNICEF/ZAK
    MAINMESSAGES
    8
    measuringsimpleparameterssuchasowisoftenex-
    tremelyexpensive.Thereisahugeresourcebasefrom
    remotesensing,whichhasnotyetbeentranslatedinto
    signicantowofusefulprocessedinformationabout
    wateranditsuse.However,usingremotesensingdata
    withoutgroundtruthmayberisky;strengtheningex-
    istinghydrometnetworksandservicesisanecessary
    conditionforproperwaterresourcesmanagement,
    planning,designandoperation.
    Themostefectivedriverofefortstoimprovetheow
    ofinformationaboutwaterwillbeademandfrom
    policy-makersanddecision-makersinthesocio-
    economicsectorsofactivity.
    Fromagovernmentperspective,economicpolicy-
    makershaverecognizedthatwaterresourceshavean
    importantbutlargelyunaccountedforinuenceonna-
    tionaleconomies.Therearenowsignicantopportuni-
    tiesfortheglobalcommunityofwaterpractitioners,as
    wellaswaterusersandthemuchbroadercommunity
    thathasastakeinwater,tomakesubstantialimprove-
    mentsintheavailabilityandqualityofinformation
    abouttheresource,itsuse,users,benetsderived
    fromitsuseandhowthesebenetsareallocated,and
    whobearsthecostsandnegativeimpacts.
    Chapter7.Regionalchallenges,globalimpacts
    Africa
    Sub-SaharanAfricafacesendemicpoverty,foodinse-
    curity,verylowcoverageofbothdrinkingwaterand
    sanitation,andpervasiveunderdevelopment,withal-
    mostallcountrieslackingthehuman,economicand
    institutionalcapacitiestoefectivelydevelopandman-
    agetheirwaterresourcessustainably.
    Overall,onlyoneinfourpeopleinAfricahaselectricity.
    Hydropowersupplies32%ofAfricasenergy;only3%of
    itsrenewablewaterresourcesareexploitedforhydro-
    electricity.Yettheregionhasvasthydropowerpotential
    enoughtomeetallthecontinentselectricityneeds.
    Droughtinsub-SaharanAfricaisthedominantclimate
    risk;itdestroyseconomiclivelihoodsandfarmersfood
    sourcesandhasasignicantnegativeefectonGDP
    growthinone-thirdofthecountries.Floodsarealso
    highlydestructivetoinfrastructureandtransporta-
    tionandtogoodsandserviceows,andtheycancon-
    taminatewatersuppliesandcausewaterbornedisease
    epidemics.
    Concernsaboutclimatechange,oneofthefactors
    thathaveledtothegrowinginterestinwaterindica-
    tors,explicitrecognitionthatthestationaryhydrology
    assumptioncannolongerbeusedasthebasisforas-
    sessmentofwateravailability.Thishasfocusedatten-
    tiononthelimitedavailabilityofglobaldataonstream
    ows,onwhichestimatesofwaterresourceavailability
    mustbebased.Whilethereareagreatdealofavail-
    abledataonprecipitation,whichcanbemeasuredby
    remotesensing,changesinrunoftoriversorrecharge
    ofgroundwateraremuchhardertomeasure.
    Becauseoftherelativelylowvalueandwidedistribu-
    tionofwater,itsuseisoftennotmeasureddirectly.
    Becausewaterresourcesareoftensharedbetweena
    numberofdiferentpoliticaljurisdictions,thereisof-
    tenadisincentiveforupstreamcommunitiestoshare
    informationaboutresourceavailabilityandusewith
    downstreamjurisdictions,astheinformationmaybe
    usedindisputesaboutthedivisionoftheresource.
    Toachieveabalancedallocationandprotectionof
    waterresources,indicatorsshouldsupportpolicyin-
    strumentswhicharecarefullychosenanddesigned.
    Theymayincluderegulation(e.g.technicalstandards,
    performancestandards),quotas,accessrulesandal-
    locationprocedures,aswellaseconomicinstruments
    (especiallypricingmechanismsandpaymentsforeco-
    systemservices).
    Becausewateroccursinnaturalstructureswhose
    behaviouroftenvariesfromoneseasontothenext,
    UNPhoto/AlbertGonzalezFarran
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 9
    furtherexacerbatethevulnerabilityofSIDSwithan-
    ticipatedsea-levelriseandtheriskofstormsurgeand
    beacherosion.Onetropicalcyclonecannegateyears
    ofdevelopmenteforts.
    Theregionisshiftingfrompredominantlyshort-term
    benetplanninganddevelopmentofwaterinfrastruc-
    ture,toamorestrategicandlong-termbenetplan-
    ningconceptthatalsoaddressesecologicalefciency
    ineconomicdevelopment.
    Latin America and the Caribbean
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(LAC)isbasicallya
    humidregionalthoughitcontainssomeveryaridar-
    eas.Thepatternofwateruseintheregioncanbede-
    scribedasspatiallysporadicandhighlyconcentrated
    inrelativelyfewareas.
    WiththeexceptionsofMexico,Brazilandsomeof
    thesmallCentralAmericancountries,LACeconomies
    dependontheexportofnaturalresources.Global
    demandfortheseproducts,whichincludeminerals,
    foodandotheragriculturalproducts,timber,shand
    tourismservices,hasincreasednotablyinrecentyears.
    Thishasimplicationsforcompetingwaterdemands
    andtheexportofvirtualwaterfromtheregion.
    AlthoughmostLACcountriesenjoyhighlevelsof
    coverageofimprovedwaterandsanitation,thereisa
    largevariationinthequalityofservicesandimportant
    Europe and North America
    TherelativelyafuentlifestylesofmostEuropeansand
    NorthAmericansmakelargedemandsontheregions
    waterresources.NorthAmericans,thehighestper
    capitawaterusersintheworld,however,consumetwo
    andahalftimesthevolumethatEuropeansuseper
    capita:onereasonisthatwaterisrelativelyinexpen-
    sivecomparedtootherindustrialisedcountries.
    Some120millionpeopleintheEuropeanregiondo
    nothaveaccesstosafedrinkingwater.Evenmorelack
    accesstosanitation,resultinginwater-relateddiseases.
    Waterqualityremainsapersistentprobleminmany
    partsoftheregion.Agrochemicalsinparticularhave
    hadadetrimentalimpactonwaterresourcesthrough-
    outtheregionasnitrogen,phosphorusandpesticides
    runintowatercourses.
    TheWaterFrameworkDirectiveconcludedin2000,
    andincludingmorerecentdirectivesonstandards
    andgroundwater,isthemostimportantpieceofEU
    waterlegislationandtheonlysuchsupra-nationalwa-
    terarrangementintheworld.Ithasacceleratedand
    deepenedahistoricalprocessoftransboundarywater
    management.
    Asia-Pacic
    TheAsiaandPacicregionisextremelydynamic,un-
    dergoingrapidurbanisation,economicgrowth,indus-
    trialization,andextensiveagriculturaldevelopment.
    Althoughthesetrendsaredesirableinmanyways,they
    alsorepresentdriversthatareafectingtheregions
    capacitytomeetitssocioeconomicwaterdevelop-
    mentneeds.Theyareaccompaniedbytheintensive
    useofresourcesthatexertconsiderablepressureon
    aquaticecosystems,whichcontinuetodeteriorate.
    Foodsecurityisanimportantissuesinceabouttwo-
    thirdsoftheworldshungrypeopleliveinAsia.
    TheAsia-Pacicistheworldsmostvulnerableregion
    withrespecttonaturaldisasters,whichundermine
    economicdevelopmenttovaryingdegrees.Mucheco-
    nomicgrowthisgeneratedincoastalandood-prone
    areas,forexample,whichareheavilypopulatedand
    especiallyvulnerabletotyphoonsandrainstorms.
    ThePacicssmallislanddevelopingstates(SIDS)are
    particularlyvulnerabletoenvironmentalnaturalhaz-
    ards,suchastropicalcyclones,typhoonsandearth-
    quakesturningintodisasters.Climatechangewill
    Shutterstock/ShiYali
    MAINMESSAGES
    10
    impactsandcanleadtofarreachingconsequences
    suchasfoodriotsandpoliticalinstability.
    Watershortagescancauseconictsofvaryinginten-
    sityandscale.Althoughconictsmayappearlocal-
    ized,theypresentchallengestothebroadercontextof
    peaceandsecurity.Conictsoverwaterresourcescan
    alsoturnintoorfuelethnicconictsasethniccon-
    ictismostcommonlyfuelledbycollectivefearsfor
    thefuture,onecanseehowwaterscarcitycouldplay
    intosuchfears.
    Thereareusefulreasonsforincorporatingthepositive
    aspectsofthemarketwhenconsideringwaterresourc-
    es.Forinstance,oneofthereasonsforwaterresource
    depletionisthattypicallyithasbeenundervaluedas
    aresource.Itisthusimportanttoplaceavalueonit.
    Whetherearmarkingitasacommodityisthebestso-
    lutionforplacingvalueonitissubjecttodebate.
    Whetherthroughnormsorvalues,waterresources
    mustbevaluedfortheirworth,elsethetrendofdeg-
    radationwillensue.
    Part2:Managingwaterunderuncertainty
    andrisk
    IntroductiontoPart2
    Politicalandsocialsystemsarechanginginwaysand
    withimpactsnotalwayspredictable.Technologyis
    evolving,livingstandards,consumptionpatternsand
    lifeexpectanciesarechanging,andhumanpopulations
    aregrowingandincreasinglymovingtoexpandingur-
    banareas.Consequently,landuseandcoverischang-
    ing,asistheclimate.Theratesatwhichthesechanges
    areoccurringareoftenincreasingandtheirlong-term
    impactsareusuallyuncertain.Discontinuitiesare
    possibleandtippingpointscanexistbeyondwhich
    changeisirreversible.
    Adaptingtochangepresentsanopportunity.Whathas
    happenedinthepastcannotbechanged,butthefuture
    canbeinuencedbythedecisionsbeingmadenow.
    Waterisaprimarymediumthroughwhichchangesin
    humanactivityandtheclimateimpactwiththeearths
    surface,itsecosystems,anditspeople.Itisthrough
    wateranditsqualitythatpeoplewillfeeltheimpactof
    changemoststrongly.
    Withoutproperadaptationorplanningforchange,
    hundredsofmillionsofpeoplewillbeatgreaterrisk
    diferencesbetweenruralandurbanareasandamong
    countries.Almost40millionpeoplestilllackaccessto
    improvedwaterandnearly120milliontopropersani-
    tationfacilities.Themajorityofthosewithoutaccess
    toservicesarepoorandliveinruralareas.
    Ingeneral,poorgovernanceinmanyLACcountriesex-
    tendsfromthetoptothebottom.Itisnotrestrictedto
    themanagementofthewaterresource,butrifeinthe
    managementofmostwater-basedservices.Withrela-
    tivelyweakwatermanagementcapacities,theregions
    poorestcountriesinCentralAmerica,theCaribbean
    andtheAndeswillbeatthehighestriskfromtheim-
    pactsofclimatechange.
    Arab and Western Asia region
    Populationgrowthandmigration,growingconsump-
    tion,regionalconictsandgovernanceconstraintsin
    theArabandWesternAsiaregionhaveresultedinin-
    creasingrisksassociatedwithwaterquantityandqual-
    ity,butareaccompaniedbythesustainablemanage-
    mentofsharedresourcesandtheiruse,aswellasthe
    successofpoliciestopromoteruraldevelopmentand
    foodsecurity.
    Waterscarcityleadstofoodinsecurityconcernsin
    theArabregion.Importedgrainaccountsforalarge
    amountofvirtualwaterconsumedintheMiddleEast
    andNorthAfrica,whichwasimporting50million
    tonnesofgrainannuallybytheyear2000.Thishas
    fosteredinterestinagriculturalinvestmentsoutside
    theregiontoproducefood,whichinefectincreases
    theimportationofvirtualwater.
    CyclicalconicthasbeencharacteristicoftheArab
    region.Violentconicthasalsodestroyedwaterin-
    frastructureatdiferenttimesinBeirut,Kuwaitand
    Lebanon,requiringrehabilitationinsteadofexpansion
    ofdelivery.About66%oftheArabregionsavailable
    surfacewateroriginatesfromoutsideoftheregion.At
    times,thishasledtoconictwithupstreamcountries.
    Local-levelwaterconictscanalsoexistbetweenad-
    ministrativedistricts,communitiesandtribes.
    Regionalglobal links: Impacts and challenges
    Water-relatednaturaldisastersposemajorimpedi-
    mentstoachievinghumansecurityandsustainable
    socio-economicdevelopment.Droughtshavesigni-
    cantlyimpactedagriculturalproduction,whichinturn
    havecontributedtosoaringfoodpricesandshort-
    ages.Theseincreaseshaveothermajorsocio-political
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
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    envelopeofvariabilitydenedbypastevents.The
    worldiswitnessingtheoccurrenceofsuchextreme
    eventstoday.Becauseofthiswaterresourcesplanners
    andmanagersmustapplyasignicantamountofjudg-
    mentintheiranalysesduetochangesinlanduse,ur-
    banization,andtheimpactsofachangingclimatethat
    inuencefutureprecipitation,evaporation,groundwater
    inltration,surfacerunofandchannelow.
    Nomatterwhatdesignischosenthereisalwaysarisk
    offailure.Questionsthatplagueanyonemakinglong-
    termdecisionsincludewhatlevelsofriskareaccept-
    able,andjusthowmuchmoremoney,ifany,shouldbe
    spentondesignsthatreducethecostsofinfrastruc-
    tureexpansioninthefuture,shouldfutureconditions
    warrantit.
    Whensufcientinformationisavailabletodetermine
    probabilitiesofdecisionoutcomesandevaluatethe
    consequences,decision-makingcanbebasedonrisk
    analysis.Decision-makingmaybeassistedbytheuse
    ofawidevarietyofanalyticaltoolsandtechniques,
    varyingfromthesimpletothesophisticated.
    Thedecisionprocessshouldencourageactivepartici-
    pationfrominterestedstakeholdergroups.Thiswill
    ensurethatdiferencesintheperceptionofrisksand
    valuesarefullyexploredwithintheriskassessment
    anddecisionappraisalprocess.Interactivedecision
    supportmodelshavebeendevelopedandsuccessful-
    lyusedtofacilitatestakeholderparticipation.
    Insituationswhereitisdifculttoassignprobabilities
    topossibleeventsorfutureoutcomes,perhapsdue
    toourlimitedunderstandingofhumanandecologi-
    calprocessesorduetotheintrinsicindeterminismof
    complexdynamicsystems,wecanstillcreatesce-
    nariosthatforceustoconsiderthepossibilityofsuch
    outcomesandwhetherornotweshouldmakedeci-
    sionsthatmightleadtosuchoutcomes.Waterfutures
    dependonhumanchoicesthatareyettobemade.
    Watermanagementagencieswithusersandpolicy-
    makersneedtoparticipateinthedevelopmentofal-
    ternatemethodologiesthattakeintoaccountnon-
    stationarityandmakewaterresourceprojectsmore
    adaptable,sustainableandrobust.
    Ifhumansaretolivewithinthelimitsoftheirwaterre-
    sources(andthereisnootherchoice),theymustlive
    withinthelimitsofthenaturalsystemsthatprovide,
    ofhunger,disease,energyshortagesandpovertydue
    towaterscarcity,pollutionorooding.Adaptingto
    changesinwaterquantityandquality,togetherwith
    theirrisksanduncertainties,isachallengingareafor
    watermanagement.
    Therisks,orconsequencesofmakingdecisionsun-
    deruncertainty,canbequaliedandevensometimes
    quantied.Robustdecision-makingisatoolthatat-
    temptstosupportdiferentmanagementactionsun-
    derdeepuncertainty.
    Providingdecision-makerswithtoolsthatshowthe
    broaderwaterresourceconsequencesofvariousdeci-
    sions(actions,inaction)cansubstantiallycontribute
    tobetteroverallresourcemanagement,andreduced
    threatsandadverseimpacts.
    Chapter8.Workingunderuncertaintyandmanagingrisk
    Riskanduncertaintycharacterizemuchofwhatwater
    managersandsocio-economicpolicy-makersmust
    dealwith.Themoretheyunderstandtheseuncertain-
    tiesandrisks,themoreefectivelytheycanplan,de-
    signandmanagewatersystemstoreducetheserisks
    anduncertainties.
    Todaywaterplannersandengineersareparticularly
    concernedwithuncertaintiesassociatedwithextremes
    thathavenotyetbeenobservedandareoutsidethe
    UNPhoto/KibaePark
    MAINMESSAGES
    12
    Alegallybindinginternationalagreementtocombat
    climatechangecouldbeinplaceby2040,alongwith
    signicantnancingforawareness-raisingandadap-
    tationinlow-incomecountries.Becausemostclimate
    changeimpactsarefeltthroughwater,thiswouldhave
    positiverepercussionsontheoveralllevelsofnancing
    forwater.Thiscouldmeanhigherlevelsofinvestment
    inwaterinfrastructure,leadingtoreductionsinwaste
    andincreasesinsustainablemobilization,aswellasin-
    creasedsanitationnetworkcoverage.
    Centralwaterauthorities,supportedbyriver-basin
    institutionsanddecentralizedentitieswouldbegiven
    increasedpowerandresourcestoefectivelymanage
    waterwithincountries.Thiswouldpromotedynamic
    andclimate-responsivere-allocationofwateramong
    users,facilitatedbywell-regulatedpricingand,poten-
    tially,innovativewaterrightstradingmechanisms.
    Thedevelopmentofwaterscenariosappearsever
    morenecessaryinthefaceoftherisksanduncertain-
    tiesinvolvedincontinuingwiththebusiness-as-usual
    modesofwatermanagement.
    Chapter10.Unvaluedwaterleadstoanuncertainfuture
    Policieswithprofoundefectsonwateraremadeby
    agentspoliticiansandofcialsinplanning,economic,
    nanceandwater-usingdepartmentsthatare
    heavilyinuencedbynationaleconomicandnancial
    considerations.Inaddition,thecaseforinvestmentin
    water,andformakingthereformstoitsdevelopment
    andmanagementisalsocommonlyframedinsocial,
    ethical,equityorpublichealthterms.
    treatanddistributethoseresources.Humansneedto
    includenaturalecosystems,alongwithbuiltinfrastruc-
    tureandhumanactivitiesthatdeterminetheallocation
    anduseofwater,inanintegratedway,eachafect-
    ingandbenetingtheotherandnecessarilymanaged
    togetherwithinanintegratedsystemofariverbasin.
    Recognizingandmanagingtheinterconnectedness
    amonglivingsystemsisameansofreducingboth
    shortandlong-termrisks.
    Chapter9.Understandinguncertaintyandrisks
    associatedwithkeydrivers
    Projectedpressuresonwaterresourceslieoutsidethe
    controlofwatermanagers.Thesecansignicantly
    afectthebalancebetweenwaterdemandandsup-
    plysometimesinuncertainwaysandthuscreate
    newrisksforwatermanagersandusers.Suchincreas-
    inguncertaintiesandrisksnecessitateadiferentap-
    proachtowatermanagementstrategies.
    Driversthatdirectlyimpingeuponwaterstressandsus-
    tainabilityaretheecosystem,agriculture,infrastructure,
    technologyanddemographics.Theultimatedrivers
    governance,politics,ethicsandsociety(valuesand
    equity)andclimatechangeexerttheirefectmostly
    throughtheirimpactsupontheproximatedrivers.
    Intheabsenceoftechnologicalimprovementsor
    policyinterventions,economicpolaritieswillincrease
    betweenwater-richandwater-poorcountries,aswell
    asbetweensectorsorregionswithincountries.This
    wouldmeanhighernumbersofpeoplewithhigh-
    erneedscompetingforlesswater,oflesserquality.
    Becauseallocationwillinevitablygotothehighest
    payingsectororregion,thismayresultinanincreas-
    inglysignicantportionofpeoplenotbeingableto
    satisfytheirbasicneedsforfood,energy,waterand
    sanitation.Thiswouldnotbemerestagnation,but
    wouldlikelytaketheformofadistinctlyregressive
    trendcomparedtocurrentconditions.
    Furthertechnologydevelopmentsapplicabletourban
    waterproductionandwastehandlingthatarelikely
    toincreaseduetosheerurbanpopulationgrowthare
    alsoexpectedtocontributetoreducingabsolutewater
    withdrawalsandwaste.Rapiduptakeofthesetechnol-
    ogieswouldbepairedwiththeanticipatedevolution
    ofglobalconsciousnessregardinghumanimpactson
    environment,andinparticular,anincreasedunder-
    standingofwaterscarcity.
    PhilippeBourseiller
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 13
    promotesexibledecision-makinginthefaceofun-
    certaintiesasoutcomesfrommanagementactionsand
    othereventsbecomebetterunderstood.
    Inaninherentlycomplexworld,mostoftheimportant
    decisionsimpactingonwateroccuroutofthewater
    box.Theyaretakenbyleadersingovernments,private
    sectorandcivilsociety.Itisthereforeimportantthat
    newmethodsbedevelopedfortechnicalpeopletoin-
    formdecision-makersingovernment,aswellasthose
    whoareafectedbythesedecisions.Thisrequiresa
    formalstructuringofrelationshipsbetweentechnical
    specialists,governmentdecision-makersandsociety
    asawhole.
    Lookingbeyondwhatistraditionallyconsideredwater
    managementgoingoutsidethewaterboxisinevi-
    table.Interconnectingwatermanagementwithland
    managementandsectorslikeagriculture,miningand
    energy,attheinstitutionallevel,willenhancetheprob-
    abilityofefectivedecision-making.Realisingthisis
    highlydemandingonleadership.Overcomingtheiner-
    tiaoftraditionalapproachesandresistancefromvari-
    ousactorsremainsdaunting.Decision-makersneed
    supportinputtingtheseideasintopractice,aswellas
    thecouragetowithstandcriticismandtosharepower
    withotheractors.
    Waterisincreasinglybecomingacriticalfactorindeci-
    sionsforthelocationofeconomicactivitiessuchasin-
    dustry,mining,powerandtourism.Companiesworking
    orcontemplatinginvestmentinwater-stressedregions
    arebecomingawareoftheirwaterfootprintandits
    impactonlocalcommunities,whichcouldposeopera-
    tionalandreputationalrisktotheirbusiness.
    Valuingthemultiplesocio-economicbenetsofwater
    isessentialforimprovingdecisionsofgovernments,
    internationalorganizations,thedonorcommunity,civil
    societyandotherstakeholders.Conversely,afailureto
    fullyvalueallthebenetsofwaterinitsdiferentuses
    isarootcauseofthepoliticalneglectofwaterandits
    mismanagement.
    Theallocationofscarcewatertocompetinguseslies
    attheheartofwatermanagement.Inmanypartsin
    theworld,increasingpressuresonwaterresources
    areleadingtoashortageofwatertosatisfyallneeds.
    Stressesonwateraremainlydrivenbyfourinterre-
    latedprocesses:populationgrowth;economicgrowth;
    increaseddemandforfood,feedandenergy(ofwhich
    biofuelisonesource);andincreasedclimatevariabil-
    ity.Choicesmustbemadeabouthowtoshare,allocate
    andreallocatetheincreasinglyscarcewaterwithin
    sectors,fromoneusergrouptoanother,orbetween
    sectors.
    Chapter11.Transformingwatermanagement
    institutionstodealwithchange
    Therearecallsforachangeinthinkingawayfrom
    separateecosystemsandsocialsystemstosocio-eco-
    logicalsystemsinstead.Ratherthanplanningforone
    denedfuture,watermanagementagenciesincreas-
    inglyneedtoimprovetheirmethodsofassessmentin
    ordertorespondtoarangeofpossiblefuturescenar-
    ios,alluncertainbutpresentingatvaryingdegreesof
    probability.
    Deningsocialrisktoleranceandservicereliabilityis
    partofasocialcontracttobedeterminedthrougha
    continuingdialoguewithineachsociety,whetheritbe
    fornewdrugs,nuclearpowerplantsorwaterinfra-
    structure.IWRMiscontextuallyshapedthroughthis
    processtoencompassthediferentdimensionsofsus-
    tainability(ecological,biophysical,economic,social
    andinstitutional),butitisalsooftenpathdependent.
    Thus,efectiveIWRMisknowledge-intensiveandsim-
    plyneedstobeadaptiveifitistocontinuetorespond
    toexogenouschangesoverwhichitgenerallyhaslittle
    directcontrol.Adaptivemanagementisaprocessthat
    Shutterstock/DianeUhley
    MAINMESSAGES
    14
    Increasingtheuseoftechnologies,suchasdesalina-
    tionandreclaimedwatercanreduceanddistribute
    risk,comparedwithrelyingonwithdrawalsoffresh
    surfaceandgroundwater.Desalinationplantsand
    someprojectsfortheuseofreclaimedwater(en-
    tailingsizeableinvestmentinwastewatertreatment
    plants)potentiallylendthemselvestostand-alone
    commercialventuresfundedfromequityandcom-
    mercialnance.
    Raisingcommercialnanceforwaterhasbecome
    moredifcultduetotheglobalnancialsituation
    since2007.This,aswellastheproblemstypicalof
    certainregions,mostnotablyLatinAmerica,,have
    discouragednewprivateinterestinwaterinfrastruc-
    tureprojects,andhasunsettledpartnersinexist-
    ingprivatepublicpartnership(PPP)ventures.The
    nancialclimatehasafectedboththesupplyofrisk
    capital(e.g.equity)andloancapitaltonancethese
    concessiondeals,asliquidityhasbecomescarce,and
    theproblemsofinternationalbankshavehadreper-
    cussionsonlocalbanks.Manyinnovativedeals,devel-
    opedwithtechnicalassistanceandrisk-sharingfrom
    donoragencies,areatrisk.
    Asageneralprinciple,theriskofnancialdefaultcan
    bemanagedbytailoringnancialtermstotherisk
    proleandexpectedcashowoftheprojectcon-
    cerned.Forlargeandcomplexprojectsitisbecoming
    commontoblenddiferenttypesofnance(com-
    mercialloans,concessionaryloans,grants,equity)to
    achieveanacceptableoverallmix.
    Thereisafeasibleapproachtonancinginthefaceof
    unknownsandrisks.Itinvolvesamixtureofefciency
    measures,reviewofstandardsandtechnologicalop-
    tions,improvedratesofcollection,bettercostrecovery
    fromwaterusers,morepredictablegovernmentsub-
    sidiesandODA,andtheintelligentuseofsuchbasic
    Inordertomakeappropriatedecisionstomanage
    particularuncertaintiesandrisks,theyhavetobe
    clearlyunderstood.Itisthereforeimportanttosupply
    enoughaccurateinformationtoprovidethedecision-
    maker(s)acertainamountofcontrolwhenfacedwith
    uncertainty.Managinguncertaintycanthenbecome
    lessstressfulandresultinmorepositiveandrealistic
    outcomes.
    Chapter12.Investmentandnancinginwaterfora
    moresustainablefuture
    Waterinallitsfacetsneedsnancingatahigher
    levelthaniscurrentlyhappeningforbothhardin-
    frastructureandthesoftbutequallyimportantitems
    suchasdatacollection,analysisanddissemination,hu-
    manresourcesandtechnicalcapacities,regulationand
    othergovernanceissues.
    Investmentinwaterinfrastructure,inbothitsphysical
    andnaturalassets,canbeadriverofgrowthandthe
    keytopovertyreduction.
    Adequatelyfundedwatergovernanceisessentialfor
    reducinguncertaintyandmanagingrisks.Efective
    governanceinareassuchasenvironmentalcontrols,
    groundwatermonitoringandabstractionlicensing,
    andmonitoringandcontrolofpollutioncanreduce
    theriskofoverexploitationofwaterresourcesorof
    catastrophicsurfacewaterpollutionandirreversible
    contaminationofaquifers.Someofthesegovernance
    functionscansometimesbeself-nancingthroughab-
    stractionandpollutioncharges.
    Theneglectanddeclineofnationalobservationsys-
    temscauselossofvitalhydrologicaldata.Investment
    inthetechnologyneededtoupgradecountrieswater
    andwater-relatedinformationbasescanshowgood
    returns,andisbeingtargetedforsupportbytheinter-
    nationaldevelopmentcommunity.Suchinformation
    isofvitalnationalconcern,butisoftenalocal,river
    basin, regionalorinternationalpublicgoodthatisseri-
    ouslyunderfundedandunder-provided.
    Adaptationandmitigationprojectsimplementedby
    publicagenciescandrawonarangeofdevelopment
    funds,includingnewadaptationfundscreatedforthis
    specicpurpose.However,muchoftheadaptation/
    mitigationefortwillfalltoprivatecompanies,farmers
    andhouseholds,aswellassubsovereignagenciesthat
    willhavetorelyonothersourcesofnancingaccord-
    ingtotheirparticularsituation.
    Shutterstock/sootra
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 15
    ofmaintainingthestatusquoexceedthetransaction
    costsofimplementingchange.However,notalltrade-
    ofsneedbenegative.Thereareindeedexamplesof
    winwinsituationswhereaddressingrisksanduncer-
    taintiesinandoutsideofthewaterrealmhaveledto
    multiplemulti-sectoralbenetsandtobenetsforwa-
    terinthelongterm.
    Chapter14.Responsestorisksanduncertaintiesfrom
    outofthewaterbox
    Manyoftheproblemsfacedwithinthewatersector
    arecausedbydecisionsmadeinothersectors,while
    manyofthesolutionstowaterproblemscanalsobe
    foundwithinthesesectors.Mostdecisions,withinor
    outsidethewaterworld,involvesomeformofrisk
    management.Anticipationoffuturebenetsorthreats
    isanintegralpartofsectoraldecisionsandbusiness
    decisionsalike.Thesedecisionsdonotalwaystake
    waterintoconsideration,butoftenhaveanimpacton
    waterandanimpactonthetypesofdecisionsand
    reactionsthatwatermanagershavetochoosefrom.
    Beyondtheprovisionofwaterforbasichumanneeds,
    suchasfood,drinkingandhygiene,manydevelopment
    efortshaveanimpactonwaterrisksanduncertainties.
    Inmostcases,moredevelopmentmeansmorewater
    use,andmorewaterpollutionarisesfromhigherlevels
    ofeconomicgrowth.
    revenuestoattractrepayablefundingsourcesusing
    thearrayofrisk-sharingdevicesnowavailable.
    Chapter13.Responsestoriskanduncertaintyfroma
    watermanagementperspective
    Therearenoresponsestoriskanduncertaintythat
    canbeuniversallyapplied.However,byexamining
    approachesthathavebeentriedbyothersitispos-
    sibletolearnfromoneormorethathavesucceeded
    orfailedelsewhereunderdiferentcircumstances.
    Theseresponseshaveusuallyinvolvedtheuseofvari-
    oustoolstoidentifyandevaluatealternativewater
    resourcesplans,policies,infrastructuredesignsand
    operatingrulesapplicabletodiferentregionsofthe
    developedanddevelopingworld.
    Oneofthemostdirectwaysofreducinguncertainty
    istogeneratenewknowledgeorunderstandingof
    conditionsgoverningwateravailabilityandqualityin
    thepresentandinthefuture.Datacollection,analyti-
    calcapacityandpredictiveabilityareallrequiredto
    reduceuncertaintyandthereforetofacilitatedecision-
    makingaboutallocations,uses,mobilizationandtreat-
    ment.Whiletherisktowaterisnotreduced,itisbetter
    understood.
    Adaptivemanagementstrategiesallowchanging
    coursebasedonnewinsights,helpestablishandsus-
    taininstitutionalsettingsandtechnologicalsystems
    thatareexibleanderror-tolerant,andoferaframe-
    workfortransparentdecision-makingprocesses.
    Fundingadiversityofwaterstorageprojects,from
    small-scalerainwatertanksandlarger-scaledamsto
    systemsthatarticiallyrechargegroundwateraqui-
    fers,toimprovingthesoilsoitcanholdmorewater,is
    oneoptiontomeetingtheincreasedneedforstorage.
    Storedwaterintimesofdroughtcanleadtoincreased
    foodsecurity.Justasmodernconsumersdiversifytheir
    nancialholdingstoreducerisk,smallholderfarmers
    canuseawidearrayofwateraccountstoprovidea
    buferagainstclimatechangeimpacts.
    Limitedwateravailability,growingandevolvingde-
    mands,andcompetitionamongincreasinglyscarce
    nancialandphysicalresourcescreatedifculttrade-
    ofsfordecision-makerswhomustplanefectively
    underconsiderableriskanduncertainty.Countriescan
    takeprecautionaryorstatusquoapproachestowards
    addressingriskanduncertainty,andthesereectthe
    trade-ofstheyarewillingtomaketoaddressriskand
    uncertainty.Policychangesonlyoccurwhenthecosts
    Shutterstock/jaymast
    MAINMESSAGES
    16
    Toolssuchastheproperpricingandvaluationofwa-
    terresourcescandrivebusinessdecisions,particularly
    whenwaterisakeyinputinproduction.Theycanalso
    helptohighlighttrade-ofs,costsandbenets/co-ben-
    etsthatwouldotherwisenotbeapparenttobusiness
    owners.
    Winwinbenetsbetweenwaterandhealthplanning
    canbefoundastheworldsconcernoverpandemics
    andrapidlytransmissibleanimalandhumandiseases
    increases.Becausewateractsasavectoroftransmis-
    sionorasadeterminingfactorintheprevalenceof
    certaintransmissiblediseases,efortstoprevent(or
    preparefor)globalpandemicscouldgeneratebenets
    formanagingrisksanduncertaintiesrelatedtowater.
    Anumberofinternationalorganizationshighlightthe
    waterfoodenergynexusasillustratingthemostdif-
    cultchoices,risksanduncertaintiesfacingpolicy-mak-
    erstoday.Examplesaboundofthevariousintendedor
    unintendedconsequencesoffavouringonepillarover
    theother(e.g.foodsecurityversusenergysecurity).
    Akeychallengeistoincorporatethecomplexinter-
    connectionsofrisksintoresponsestrategiesthatare
    integratedandtakeintoaccountthemanyrelevant
    stakeholders.
    Insuranceisofoneoftheoldestriskmitigationmecha-
    nismsonethatisapplicabletoallsectors,butthat
    alsohelpstoreducetheimpactsofwater-relatedrisks.
    Index-based(orparametric)insuranceisalsoemerg-
    ingasapotentiallypowerfultoolforriskmanagement
    inallsectors.
    Watertreatiesoragreementsregardingwateralloca-
    tioninsharedtransboundarybasinsaremultiplying,
    andareoftenquotedashavingsidebenetsforreduc-
    ingotherrisks,throughtheestablishmentoftrust-
    buildingmechanismsandacertainamountofpredict-
    abilityinstakeholderbehaviours.
    Agreementsandtreatiessignedforpurposesother
    thanwatermayhelpreducerisksanduncertaintiesre-
    gardingwater,particularlywheretheyprovidemutual
    assuranceoftheotherpartysbehaviourregarding
    naturalresourceuse.
    Choosingdiverseeconomicgrowthpathwayscould
    helptoaddressrisksanduncertaintiesrelatedtowater
    availability;however,veryfewcountrieshavetheop-
    tiontodosobecausethetrade-ofsandpoliticalcosts
    aresohighandimmediatelyfelt.
    Insomecases,greengrowthentailsturningadevelop-
    mentchallengeforexample,lackofaccesstochemi-
    calfertilizerintoasustainabledevelopmentoppor-
    tunity.Followingthismodel,existingwaterscarcity
    couldprovideabasisfortechnologicalinnovationto
    helpcountriesleapfrogtowardsgreenergrowth,while
    avoidingthecommonrisksfacedbyothercountries.
    Climatechangerepresentsoneofthegreatestuncer-
    taintiescurrentlyfacinghumansociety.Attheglob-
    allevel,theremaybeahighdegreeoflikelihoodfor
    certaintypesofimpactsuchastemperatureincreases
    andsealevelrise;however,impactsatthelocallevel
    arefarlesspredictable.
    Mostbusinessdecisionsarebasedonanapproachto
    risksanduncertainties.Decisionsoninvestmentsand
    modesofproductionmakepresumptionsaboutthefu-
    ture.Manydecisionsthatareuniquelymotivatedbythe
    nancialbottomlinecanalsoprovideefectivemeansof
    reducingrisksanduncertaintiesrelatedtowater.
    Governmentpoliciessuchastaxationrates,orscal
    incentivesforattractinginvestmentandbusinessina
    givenlocation,whilelegalframeworkscangoalong
    waytoreducinguncertaintiesbyprovidingboundaries
    fortheinvestmentcontext.
    Governmentsmaychoosetoattractinvestmentsthat
    providethehighestvalueforwaterunits,althoughex-
    amplesofsuchtypesofdecisionremainunfortunately
    rare.
    UN-HABITAT
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 17 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA

    Author RichardConnor
    Contributors DanielP.LoucksandMarilynSmith
    INTRODUCTION
    PhilippeBourseiller
    18
    No water users, anywhere in the world,canbeguaran-
    teedtheywillhaveuninterruptedaccesstothewater
    suppliestheyneedorwantortothewater-derived
    benetsfromkeydevelopmentalsectorssuchasagri-
    culture,energyandhealth.Examplesfromaroundthe
    worldwarnusthatdisregardforthecentralimpor-
    tanceofwaterwilleventuallyleadtobreakdownsin
    thesocio-economicandenvironmentalsystemssovi-
    taltotheprosperityofallcountriesandtheircitizens.
    Whileitistruethatallaspectsofsocialandeconomic
    developmentoftenreferredtoasthefoodenergy
    healthenvironment nexusdependonwater,thatis
    onlyhalfofthetruth;therelationshipisoneofinterde-
    pendency.Alloftheactivitiesthatdrivedevelopment
    alsoshapeimportantpoliticalandeconomicdecisions
    thatinuencehowwaterresourcesareallocatedand
    managed,allofwhichoftenhassubstantialimpactson
    thequantityandthequalityofthewateravailable,and
    thusonotherdevelopmentalsectors.Indeed,allofthe
    sectorsofthenexusareinterlinkedthroughwater.
    Thecombinationofgrowingpopulations,increas-
    ingdemandsforresourcesassociatedwithimproving
    standardsofliving,andvariousotherexternalforces
    ofchangeareincreasingdemandpressuresonlocal
    andregionalwatersuppliesrequiredforirrigation,en-
    ergyproduction,industrialusesanddomesticpur-
    poses.Theseforcesareundergoingrapid,accelerating
    andoftenunpredictablechange,creatingnewuncer-
    taintiesforwatermanagersandincreasingriskstoall
    developmentalsectorsofthenexusthroughwater.At
    thesametime,climatechangeiscreatingnewuncer-
    taintieswithregardtofreshwatersuppliesandtothe
    mainwaterusesectorssuchasagricultureandenergy,
    whichwillinturnexacerbateuncertaintiesregard-
    ingfuturedemandsforwater.Insummary,thedeter-
    minantsofchangeinwaterdemandandsupplyare
    themselvesundergoingunpredictablechanges.
    Waterisavitalcomponentintheproductionofall
    goodsandcommodities,particularlyfood,andisthus
    embeddedinmarketedgoods.Globalizationoftrade
    meansthatallcountriesandcompanies(consciously
    orunconsciously)areinvolvedintheimportandex-
    portofvirtualwaterandthereforesharesomerespon-
    sibilityforthelocalandregionalimpactsassociated
    withinternationaltrade(includingincreasingscarcity
    andpollution)andtheforeigninvestmentprotection
    system.Aswaterdemandandavailabilitybecome
    moreuncertain,allsocietiesbecomemorevulnerable
    toawiderangeofrisksassociatedwithinadequate
    watersupply,includinghungerandthirst,highratesof
    diseaseanddeath,lostproductivityandeconomiccri-
    ses,anddegradedecosystems.Theseimpactselevate
    watertoacrisisofglobalconcern.
    ThisfourtheditionoftheWorld Water Development
    Report(WWDR4)driveshomethepointthatall water
    users are for better or worse and knowingly or un-
    knowingly change agentswhoafectandareafected
    bythewatercycle.Itpresentsthecasethat,intodays
    world,abusiness-as-usualapproachtowatermanage-
    mentistantamounttoblindneglectoftheecosystems
    thatsustainlifeandwell-being.Pastattitudeswhich
    inmanycaseswereofanexpectationofgovernments
    tomanagewaterasasectorwhiledecision-makers
    inothertruesectors(food,energy,healthandothers)
    paidlittleattentiontohowtheiractionsafectedthe
    watercycle(andotherusers)havecreatedadiscon-
    nectbetweenpoliciesandactions,andtheroleofman-
    agingboththeirconsequences.Thelackofinteraction
    betweenthediversecommunitiesofusers,decision-
    makersandisolatedwatermanagershascausedserious
    degradationofthewaterresourceandincreasedthe
    riskstoalltheothersectorsthatdependuponit.
    Perhapsthemosttroublingaspectofthisassessment
    isthattherateofchangenowseenacrossthewater
    cycleleaveswaterexpertssomewhatperplexed;his-
    toryisnolongerareliablemeansofpredictingfu-
    turewaterdemandandavailability.Inadmittingthat
    currentunderstandingofthevariouspressuresbeing
    placedonthewatercycleisakintoislandsofknowl-
    edgeinavastseaofunknowns,theWWDR4alsosets
    achallengeforallwaterusersandthefullspectrumof
    leadersanddecision-makerstoinvestinbuildingand
    sharingknowledgeabouthowtheiractionsafectwa-
    terquality,quantity,distributionanduse.Onlythrough
    suchacollectiveefortcanwaysbefoundtoreduce
    uncertaintyandmanagerisktobalanceandoptimize
    themanyfundamentalbenetsprovidedtosociety
    throughwater.
    AsdiscussedintheWWDR3,globalizationprocesses
    havebroughtbenetstobillionsofpeople,buthavein
    largepartleftthebottombillion,inwhichwomenand
    childrenaredisproportionallyrepresented,marginal-
    izedandmostvulnerabletoexistingrisks.Learning
    howtoequitablybalancethemanybenets,from
    localtoglobal,derivedfromwaterwillbeaneces-
    sarykeyforchange.Ifmeasurestakentodealwith
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 19
    First,itreintroducesthetwelvechallengeareareports
    thatprovidedthefoundationforthersttwoeditions.
    Thesewereagainpreparedunderthecoordinationof
    leadingUNagencies.However,unliketheearlierver-
    sions,whichprovidedacomprehensiveoverviewof
    theissues,thenewchallengeareareportsareshorter,
    withafocusonkeychallenges,recentdevelopments
    andemergingtrends,andontheexternaldriversand
    thepressurestheyplaceonwatersystemsandhow
    thesecanleadtoabetterunderstandingofuncertain-
    ty,managementofriskandidenticationofopportuni-
    ties.Thisisthecontextinwhichapproachestowater
    managementandpolicyareillustratedthroughspecif-
    icexamples,rangingfromadaptivedesigncriteriafor
    infrastructureordemandmanagementtoinstitutional
    capacitydevelopmentandpoliciesfordiferentdevel-
    opmentalsectors.
    Second,inadditiontothesechallengeareareports,
    fournewreportshavebeenintroduced,coveringis-
    suesthathadnotbeenspecicallycoveredunderpre-
    viousWWDRs:WaterQuality,Groundwater,Gender,
    andDesertication,LandDegradationandDrought.
    Third,inrecognitionthattheglobalchallengesof
    watercanvaryconsiderablyacrosscountriesand
    regions,aseriesofveregionalreportshavebeen
    included,providingforthersttimearegionalfocus
    totheWWDR4.Theseregionalreports,whichfollow
    thesameoverallstructureasthechallengeareare-
    ports,werecoordinatedbytheUNregionaleconomic
    commissions.
    Fourth,WWDR4delvesintoadeeperanalysisofthe
    driversdescribedinthethirdedition,andexamines
    possibilitiesfortheirfutureevolution.Thisanalysisem-
    anatesfromtheresultsoftherstphaseoftheWorld
    WaterAssessmentProgrammes(WWAP)Scenarios
    Project,whichisalsodescribedinWWDR4.
    Fifth,thisfourtheditionoftheWWDRincorporatesa
    theme,Managingwaterunderuncertaintyandrisk,
    whichservesastheoverarchingtopicforthereport.This
    doesnotmeanthattheWWDR4isaboutuncertainty
    andrisk;rather,theWWDR4examinescurrentchallenges
    towaterresources,theiruseandmanagementthrough
    thelensofuncertaintyandrisk.TheWWDR4consid-
    erstheuncertaintiesassociatedwithdiferentexternal
    driversandlooksatmanagingtherisksemanatingfrom
    withinandoutsidethewaterbox,thusfurtherbuildingon
    theholisticapproachtakenintheWWDR3.
    water-relatedissuesdonotexplicitlyincorporateeq-
    uityissues,thepoorestandthemostunderprivileged
    peoplearelikelytocontinuebeingexcludedfromben-
    etingfromtheoutcomesofthesemeasures.
    Therearesuccessstoriesofmultiplestakeholders
    workingtogethertoturnrapidchangeintheforces
    thatinuencethewatercycleintonewopportuni-
    tiestoimprovewaterprovision,useandmanagement.
    Presentedthroughoutthereport(andespeciallyin
    Chapters13and14),theseexamplesofprogresshigh-
    lighttheinteractionofknowledge-building,policy,
    technologyandgreaterinputbyawiderrangeofwa-
    terstakeholders.Yettheyalsohighlightthecomplex-
    ityofeachandeverysituationoveremphasisonone
    aspectcanunbalancetheefort.
    WhatsnewintheWWDR4
    ThersttwoeditionsoftheWWDRprovidedcompre-
    hensiveassessmentsoftheissues,trendsanddevel-
    opmentsafectingandrelatedtowateronthebasisof
    diferentchallengeareas.Underthecoordinationof
    leadingUnitedNations(UN)agencies,thesechallenge
    areaswerepresentedasindividualchaptersthatde-
    scribedthestateoftheresourceandecosystems;ma-
    jorusesectors(humanhealth,foodandagriculture,in-
    dustry,energy,humansettlements);andmanagement
    challenges(managingrisks,sharingwater,valuingwa-
    ter,enhancingknowledgeandcapacity,governance).
    ThethirdWWDRtookadiferentapproach(andstruc-
    ture)byprovidingaholisticanalysisofthewaterdo-
    mainwhilerecognizingtheexternalitiesandtheirrole
    onthestate,useandmanagementoftheearthswater
    resources.Itintroducedtheconceptofexternalforces,
    providingageneraldescriptionofthemaindriversof
    changeandhowtheseultimatelyafectdemandfor
    andthushaveimpactsonfreshwaterresources.The
    keymessageofthereportwasthatmostdecisions
    aboutwaterarenotmadebywatermanagers,butby
    decision-makersoutsidethewaterbox;thatis,actors
    fromthespheresofcivilsociety,businessandgovern-
    mentleadership,whosedecisionsconcerningpolicy
    formulation,resourceallocationandotherpoliticaland
    operationalissuesafectwaterdirectly(throughal-
    locationanddemand)andindirectly(throughvarious
    driversofchange).
    Thisfourthreportbuildsondiferentelementsofthe
    rstthreeeditionsandincorporatessomeentirelynew
    aspects.
    INTRODUCTION
    Insummary,buildingonthecomprehensiveapproach
    takeninWWDRs1and2,andtheholisticviewtaken
    inWWDR3,thisfourtheditiongivesanaccountofthe
    criticalissuesfacingwaterschallengeareasanddifer-
    entregionsandincorporatesadeeperanalysisofthe
    externalforces(i.e.drivers)linkedtowater.Indoingso,
    theWWDR4seekstoinformreadersandraiseaware-
    nessofthenewthreatsarisingfromacceleratedchange
    andoftheinterconnectedforcesthatcreateuncertainty
    andriskultimatelyemphasizingthattheseforcescan
    bemanagedefectivelyandcanevengeneratevitalop-
    portunitiesandbenetsthroughinnovativeapproaches
    toallocation,useandmanagementofwater.
    Structureandcontent
    TheWWDR4isseparatedintofourparts.Part1,Status,
    trendsandchallenges,providesanoverviewofrecent
    developments,emergingtrendsandkeychallenges,
    includingtheexternalforcesdrivingtheseandthe
    uncertaintiesandriskscreatedbythedrivers.Part2,
    Managingwaterunderuncertaintyandrisk,isthethe-
    maticpartofthereportinwhichdecisionsafecting
    water,frommanagementandinstitutionstoallocation
    andnancing,areinvestigatedthroughthelensofrisk
    anduncertainty,withparticularemphasisonclimate
    changeandotherdriversofchange.Part3(Volume
    2),Knowledgebase,containseachofthechallenge
    areareportspreparedbyUN-Wateragenciesandthe
    regionalreportspreparedbytheUNregionaleconom-
    iccommissionsfromwhichmuchofthematerialin
    Parts1and2wasextractedaswellasothersupport-
    ingdocuments.Liketheearliereditions,theWWDR4
    alsocontainscasestudies,Part4(Volume3).The15
    country-levelcasestudiesdescribetheprogressmade
    inmeetingwater-relatedobjectives,aswellassome
    obstaclesleadingtolingeringandinmanycaseswors-
    eningproblems,showingthattherearelessonstobe
    learnedfromsuccessstoriesaswellasfromfailures.
    TheWWDR4openswithChapter1,whichdescribes
    theglobaldimensionsofwaterandunderlinesthe
    needtomovebeyondtheconceptofwaterasasec-
    tor.Itdiscusseswaterscentralroleandcross-cutting
    natureinachievingvariousdevelopmentaltargets,a
    realitythatisevolvinginkeyinternationalprocesses
    suchastheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventionon
    ClimateChange(UNFCCC)negotiationsandthepre-
    paratoryworkleadinguptotheRio+20Conference
    oftheUNCommissionforSustainableDevelopment
    (CSD),orbeingadequatelyimplementedinnational
    frameworks.
    Part1beginswithChapter2,whichfocusesonthekey
    sectorsofwaterdemand:foodandagriculture,energy,
    industry,andhumansettlements.Inadditiontoreport-
    ingrecenttrendsanddevelopments,thischapterde-
    scribesthepressuresforthemaindrivers,theuncer-
    taintiesandrisksrelatedtoeachsector,projectionson
    futuredemands(wherepossible)andpossibleresponse
    measures.Thechapterconcludeswithasectiononeco-
    systemsasauserofwater,arguingthatwaterdemand
    byecosystemsistobedeterminedbythewaterre-
    quirementstosustainorrestorethebenetsforpeople
    (services)thatwewantecosystemstosupply.
    Chapter3looksatthesupply-sideaspectsofthewater
    resourcesequation.Focusingoninformationprovided
    inpreviousWWDRs,thechapterexaminestheroleof
    large-scaleclimatedriversindistributingtheearths
    waterresourcesovertimeandspace.Twoveryimpor-
    tantstorage-relatedissues,groundwaterandglaciers,
    areaddressedhereintermsoftheirvulnerabilityand
    thelong-termsrisksthatmayevolvefromover-exploi-
    tation(groundwater)andfromclimatechange(gla-
    ciers).Thechapterconcludeswithanexaminationof
    themostpressingwaterqualityissuesandtherisks
    thesecanengender.
    Chapter4focusesonthebenetsreceivedthrough
    waterintermsofhumanhealthandecosystemsand
    thechallengesfacedfromnaturalhazardsanddeserti-
    cation.Theseareexaminedintermsofcurrenttrends
    andhotspots,withuncertaintiesandrisksassociated
    withthemainexternaldrivers,andresponseoptions.
    Thechapterincludesasectionfocusingongender-re-
    latedchallengesandopportunitiesandconcludeswith
    anexaminationofthecurrentglobalwaterbalance,
    describingtheroleofwaterasthenexusforsectors
    relatedtodevelopmentandpovertyeradication.
    Chapter5describeshowdiferentwatermanagement
    systemsandinstitutionsfunction,looksatthechal-
    lengestheyface,andexaminestheimportantroleof
    developingknowledgeandcapacityinaddressingin-
    creasinguncertaintyandrisk.
    Chapter6explorestheneedforbetterdataandin-
    formationforimproveddecision-making.Thechap-
    terdescribesthevalueoffocusingonasmallsetof
    specicdataitemsfromwhichmyriadindicatorsof
    performancecanbedeveloped,andhighlightsseveral
    promisingoptionsthat,ifproperlyimplemented,could
    beginprovidinghighlyvaluableinformationforwater
    20 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    makemostoftheimportantdecisionsimpactingwa-
    ter.Importantinstrumentstosupportdecision-making
    includeforecastsandscenarios,ascombiningarange
    offorecastsofpossiblefuturesallowsformorerobust
    decision-making.Akeytooltoinitiatingthemuch-
    neededadaptation,proactiveadaptiveintegratedwa-
    terresourcesmanagement(IWRM),isalsopresented.
    Thechaptercloseswithafocusonwaysinstitutions
    canbereformedtobetterdealwithuncertaintyand
    managerisk.
    Chapter12buildsonthecasemadeinChapter10,
    showingthatwaterdevelopmentiskeytosustainable
    developmentandanintegralpartofagreeneconomy,
    andexplaininghowincreasednancingisnecessary
    forallfacetsofwaterdevelopment,rangingfromhard
    infrastructuretoequallyimportantsoftitemssuchas
    capacity;management;datacollection,analysisand
    dissemination;andregulationandothergovernance
    issues.Itexaminesefortstohelpreducethefunding
    gapthroughinternalefciencyandothermeasures;
    improvethegenerationofrevenuesfromusers,gov-
    ernmentbudgetsandofcialdevelopmentassistance
    (ODA);andusetheseowstoleveragerepayable-
    nancesuchasbonds,loansandequity.
    Chapter13presentsasetofresponsestoriskand
    uncertaintyfromawatermanagementperspec-
    tive.Examplesofreducinguncertaintyareprovided
    intermsofmonitoring,modellingandforecastingto
    reduceuncertaintyandunderstandrisk;adaptiveplan-
    ning;andproactivemanagement.Examplesofreduc-
    ingexposureandminimizingriskarealsopresentedin
    relationtoinvestmentsininfrastructureandenviron-
    mentalengineering.Finally,examplesoftrade-ofsin
    waterdecision-makingarepresented.
    Part2concludeswithChapter14,whichfocuseson
    responsestorisksanduncertaintiesfromoutsidethe
    waterbox.Examplesareprovidedofhowwatercan
    beafected(positivelyornegatively)throughactions
    andpoliciesaimedatreducingpovertyandpromoting
    greengrowth,respondingtoclimatechange(interms
    ofadaptationandmitigation),informingbusinessde-
    cisionsandmanagingsectoralrisks.Thechaptercloses
    withapproachestomitigatingrisksanduncertainties,
    withalookattherolesofinsurance,treatiesandmulti-
    sectoralcooperation.
    managers,institutionsanddecision-makersinsideand
    outsidethewaterboxalike.
    Chapter7presentsasummaryofeachofthevere-
    gionalreportscontainedinPart3/Volume2:Africa;
    EuropeandNorthAmerica;Asia-Pacic;LatinAmerica
    andtheCaribbean;andtheArabandWesternAsia
    region.Eachregionisexaminedintermsofthedriv-
    ingforcesandpressuresonwaterresources,themain
    challenges,risksanduncertaintiesassociatedwith
    these,hotspots,examplesfromresponsestothechal-
    lenges,andpotentialresponseoptions.Thechapter
    (andPart1)closeswithanexaminationoftheinterlink-
    agesbetweendiferentregionsandglobalchallenges,
    whichdescribeshowactionsinonepartoftheworld
    cancreatenegativeimpacts,aswellasopportunities,
    inotherpartsoftheworld.
    Part2beginswithChapter8,whichintroducessome
    ofthebasicconceptsofuncertaintyandrisk,including
    thresholds,tippingpointsandnonstationarityandwhat
    theymeanintermsofwatermanagement,decision-
    makingandpolicyformulation.Diferentprinciplesand
    approachestodealingwithuncertaintyandriskarepre-
    sentedwithexamplesoftheirstrategicapplications.
    Chapter9buildsontheanalysisofthemainexternal
    forces(i.e.drivers)thatwererstintroducedinthe
    WWDR3.Itincludesanexaminationofthepossible
    evolutionoftenkeydriversandtheuncertaintiesand
    risksassociatedwiththem.Italsoreportsonthere-
    sultsfromPhaseIofWWAPsWorldWaterScenarios
    Project,demonstratingthecomplexityoftheinter-
    linkagesbetweenthesedriversofchange.Thechap-
    terconcludeswithshortexamplesthatillustratethe
    possiblefuturesthatcouldarisefromawater-centred
    scenariodevelopmentexercise.
    Chapter10focusesonthevaluesofwater,itsbenets
    anditsallocation.Itsetsouttheelementsofaneco-
    nomiccaseforinvestmentinwaterandforreforming
    itsdevelopmentandmanagement,startingwiththe
    overallbenetsofwatertoaneconomy,andproceed-
    ingtoconsiderthevalueofwaterinthevariousparts
    ofitscycle.Itshowshowthesebenetsandvaluescan
    beusedtoinformpoliciesfortheallocationanduseof
    waterinsituationsofgrowingresourcepressures,un-
    certaintiesandassociatedrisks.
    Chapter11describesasetofdiferenttoolsforleaders
    ingovernment,theprivatesectorandcivilsocietywho
    WWDR4 21 INTRODUCTION

    Authors RichardConnorandHannahStoddard
    Contributors DavidCoates,WilliamJ.Cosgrove,FelixDodds,JoakimHarlin,
    PaulHeigl,KarenLexnandJackMoss
    CHAPTER 1
    Recognizing the centrality of
    water and its global dimensions
    YannArthus-Bertrand/Altitude-Paris
    Italy:CountrysidearoundSiena,Tuscany(4319N,1119E)
    PhilippeBourseiller

    Water is an essential resource required for sustaining life and livelihoods: safe water is required
    for drinking, hygiene and providing food; and adequate water to produce energy and support
    economic activities such as industry and transportation. Water in the natural environment
    ensures the provision of a multitude of ecosystem services to meet basic human needs and
    support economic and cultural activities. For too long water has been an issue that is at once
    everywhere and nowhere: it is the lifeblood of our planet and of the human societies that
    ourish upon it, but is frequently taken for granted, with decisions at all levels and across all
    sectors made without full consideration of the potential impacts on water resources and other
    water users. The challenge for twenty-rst century governance is to place water at the heart
    of decision-making at all levels horizontally across departments and sectors, and vertically at
    local, national, regional and global scales. Two prerequisites are essential to this happening.
    First, it must be understood that water is a natural resource upon which all social and
    economic activities and ecosystem functions depend. It cuts across and afects more aspects
    of life than can be easily listed or categorized. It is a basic amenity of life, as well as being
    indispensable for other necessities: as an input to agriculture for food, bre, feed and biofuels,
    the production of energy, and for industrial and manufacturing processes for multitudes of
    products. Water also has tradable aspects both directly, for example, through pipes and
    bottles, in tankers and vessels, and indirectly or virtually through products. In many contexts
    it is understood as a commodity although with many characteristics of a public good.
    Understanding the multiple aspects and roles of water is crucial to governing it efectively.
    Second, greater recognition is needed of the fact that water is not solely a local, national
    or regional issue that can be governed at any of those levels alone. On the contrary, global
    interdependencies are woven through water, and decisions relating to water use on a local,
    national or regional level often cannot be isolated from global drivers, trends and uncertainties.
    Impacts on water resources are driven by factors both outside the water box and, importantly,
    outside the decision-making box of local, national and regional actors. The recognition that
    water is an ubiquitous cycle, tapped into by development at all levels, has implications for
    the processes instituted for governing water at local, national and regional levels, for sharing
    expertise, and moving towards more robust water management in diferent locations.
    Some global dynamics and drivers, such as climate change and patterns of global trade
    or foreign investment regimes, cannot be dealt with solely at local, national or regional
    levels. Recognition of these global dimensions at the country level may inuence the kinds
    of institutional arrangements necessary at the international level to address water-related
    challenges that demand an international response. The United Nations Conference on
    Sustainable Development (UNCSD) in 2012 and its subsequent plan of action
    1
    ofer an
    opportunity for countries to advance discussions in this area, as do the United Nations
    Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in its negotiations on climate
    change mitigation and adaptation and the post-2015 processes surrounding the Millennium
    Development Goals (MDGs). Other relevant processes include Ramsar and the conventions
    on biodiversity and desertication. Forums and groups of formal and semi-formal nature such
    as the G8, G20, the World Economic Forum, the World Water Forum, and the World Social
    Forum also have an impact on global thinking.
    This chapter explores these observations that water is a natural resource critical to socio-
    economic development, and that some dimensions of water management are global. These
    factors sometimes demand global responses in addition to local, national and regional
    governance. Population growth, technology, changing lifestyles and increasing consumption
    and climate change, among others, introduce uncertainty to water management at both local
    and global levels.
    24 CHAPTER1
    1.1Beyondtheconceptofwaterasasector
    Waterisanecessarycomponentforallmajorsocio-
    economicsectors,contributingtoeachindiferentways.
    Agriculturerequireslargequantitiesofwaterforirriga-
    tionaswellgoodqualitywaterforvariousproduction
    processes.Energyrequireswaterforpoweringturbines
    (hydroelectricity),coolingpowerplants(thermaland
    nuclearelectricity)andgrowingbiofuels.Accesstosafe
    watersuppliesandbasicsanitationarenecessaryfor
    maintainingpublichealth,andwaterisneededtosup-
    porthealthyecosystems,whichinturnprovidecritical
    environmentalgoodsandservices.Thebenetsfrom
    eachofthesesectorsareprovidedthroughwater.
    AcorefocusofthethirdeditionoftheWorld Water
    Development Report wastheimpactonwaterre-
    sourcesofdecisionstakenoutsidethewaterbox.
    Planningforpublichealth,urbanization,industrializa-
    tion,energyproductionandagriculturaldevelopment
    tonamebutafewareasisalltoooftenconducted
    inisolationfromwaterministriesandwatermanag-
    ers.Furthermore,waterdemandsandusesareoften
    managedinsiloswitheachfocusedonmeetingspe-
    cicdevelopmentalobjectives,ratherthanaspartof
    anoverarchingandstrategicframeworkthatbalances
    diferentwaterusesinordertooptimizeandshare
    itsvariousbenetsacrosssocietyandtheeconomy.
    Thisfragmentationincreasesriskstothesustainability
    ofwaterresourcesaswellastothediferentdevel-
    opmentobjectivesthatdependupon(andmaybe
    incompetitionfor)limitedsupplies.Climatechange
    exacerbatesthisproblemstillfurther.Climatechange
    impactsonwaterresources,aswellasthedrivers
    ofdemand,standtoturnwaterfromanintermittent
    problemtoanacuteoneinmanypartsoftheworld
    (Steer,2010),makingthecaseforconsultationwith
    actorsoutsidethewaterboxevenmorecompelling.
    Thejobofdeliveringadequatewaterforsocial,eco-
    nomicandenvironmentalneedsisoftenunderstoodas
    thepreserveofthewatersector,whichisexpected
    toprovidetheappropriateinfrastructureandchannel
    waterintherightdirection.Yetinreality,watercuts
    acrossallsocial,economicandenvironmentalactivi-
    ties.Assuch,itsgovernancerequirescooperationand
    coordinationacrossdiversestakeholdersandsectoral
    jurisdictions.Furthermore,wateravailabilitymustbe
    understoodwithinthecontextofthehydrologicalcy-
    cle,whichisinuencedbymultiplefactors,trendsand
    uncertaintiesthatextendbeyondanarrowsectoralfo-
    cus.Thisprinciplehasbeencapturedtoagreatextent
    bythemovementtowardsintegratedwaterresources
    management(IWRM),agovernanceframeworkfor
    waterresourcesthatseekstomanagewateracross
    competingusesandneedsincludingagriculture,en-
    ergyandindustryaswellaswaterforbasichuman
    needsandecosystemfunctions(seeChapter5).Yet
    progresstowardssuchgovernanceframeworkshas
    beenslow,asoperationalizingtheprincipleofIWRM
    necessitatesinstitutionsthatfacilitatediscussionand
    decisionsonthetargetsofsociety,andtheallocation
    ofwaterresourcesacrosssectorstomeetthem.Inthe
    absenceofinstitutionalizedIWRM(orasimilarcoordi-
    natingmechanism),growingrecognitionofthewater-
    food-energy-health-environmentnexusconceptcan
    helpraiseawarenessamongmanagersresponsiblefor
    planningindiferentwater-dependentsectorsofthe
    broaderimplicationsoftheiractions,includingtheir
    wateruse,ontheresourceandotherusers.
    Itistruethatwaterunitesacommunityofexperts,
    managers,ofcialsandotherstakeholderswhoare
    taskedwithmanagingtheresourceefectivelyand
    respondingtoincreasingdemand.Assuch,itsstatus
    asasectorcannotbecompletelydenied.Thecrucial
    factorforwatergovernanceisthereforetherecogni-
    tionthatwaterisnotonlyasector,butalsoaneces-
    saryelementthatprovidesbenetsforallsectors,thus
    requiringactiveconsultationwith,andcoordination
    among,thesectorsandcommunitiesthatdepend
    uponit.Inparticular,membersofthewatercommu-
    nityhavethedutytoinformandprovideguidanceto
    decision-makingandtoregulatoryauthoritiesonhow
    touseandmanagetheresourcesustainably,soasto
    optimizeandshareitsmanybenetsandminimize
    conicts.Inshort,addressingwaterchallengesneces-
    sitatesinterventionsacrossanentireeconomy,under-
    takenbystronginstitutionswiththeauthority,capac-
    ityandleadershiptotakeaproactiveratherthana
    reactiveroleinwatermanagement,andtodrivethe
    productiveuseofwateracrosssectorswithinthelimits
    ofsocialandenvironmentalsustainability(Steer,2010).
    Theimportanceofpoliticalleadershipinestablishing,
    reviewingandmaintainingtheframeworkstoman-
    agethesecompetingdemandscannotbeunderstated.
    Someoftheareaswherethisisparticularlycriticalare
    outlinedinthissection.
    1.1.1Food
    Waterforirrigationandfoodproductionconstitutes
    oneofthegreatestpressuresonfreshwaterresourc-
    es.Agricultureaccountsforaround70%ofglobal
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 25 RECOGNIZINGTHECENTRALITYOFWATERANDITSGLOBALDIMENSIONS
    freshwaterwithdrawals(reachingupto90%insome
    fast-growingeconomies).Globalpopulationgrowth
    projectionsof2to3billionpeopleoverthenext40
    years,combinedwithchangingdiets,resultinapre-
    dictedincreaseinfooddemandof70%by2050(see
    Section2.1andChapter18).However,asthelargest
    userofwater,foodproductionalsorepresentsthelarg-
    estunknownintermsoffutureglobalwaterdemand,
    forseveralreasons.
    First,itisdifculttopredicthowdietsindiferent
    countriesandregionswillevolveoverthenextfew
    decades,andthereforewhattypeoffood(withitsvar-
    yingdemandsforwater)willbeproduced.Thequan-
    tityofbiofuelthatwillbeneededisalsounknown,or
    howthisdemandwillafectfoodproductionthrough
    increasedcompetitionoverlandandwater.Theextent
    towhichtechnologicalimprovementsinagricultural
    waterproductivity(cropperdrop)willafectfuture
    waterdemandisextremelydifculttopredict.Finally,
    becauseofclimatechange,therearemanyuncer-
    taintiesconcerninghowmuchwaterwillbeavailable
    whereandwhen.
    Intheshort-term,increaseddemandsforfoodrepre-
    sentasignicanteconomicopportunityforfarmers
    andagriculturalproducersallovertheworld,especially
    indevelopingcountrieswhoseeconomiesareoften
    highlydependentuponagriculturalproductionandex-
    port.Thereareplentyofsustainablewaysofrespond-
    ingtoincreasedfooddemand,suchasdroughtresil-
    ientcrops,incentivesformoreefcientirrigationand
    waterusage,removalofsubsidiesencouraginginef-
    cientwateruse,andregulatoryframeworkstocontrol
    waterpollutionfromexcessfertilizeruse(WEF,2011).
    Dialoguebetweenwatermanagersandagricultural
    plannersiscrucialtoensuringthattherightcombi-
    nationoftheaboveisidentiedandproperlyimple-
    mented,soastoreduceuncertaintiesandrisksrelated
    tofoodandwatersecurity.Thisdialoguemustinclude
    stakeholderswhomakealivingfromagriculture(in-
    cludingbiofuels),atalllevels,inordertoinformthe
    decision-makingauthoritiesabouttheircurrentand
    futureallocationneeds.
    1.1.2Energy
    Therelationshipbetweenwaterandenergyisrecipro-
    cal(seeSection2.2andChapter19).Energyisre-
    quiredforhumanstomakeuseofwatertolift,move,
    processandtreatitateveryphaseofitsextraction,
    distributionanduse(USAID,2001).Outofallenergy
    producedglobally,7%to8%isusedtoliftgroundwater
    andpumpitthroughpipes,andtotreatbothground-
    waterandwastewater(Hofman,2011)agurethat
    risestoaround40%indevelopedcountries(WEF,
    2011).Desalination,theprocessbywhichseawateris
    convertedtofreshwater,isespeciallyenergyintensive.
    Thetreatmentofwastewateralsorequiressignicant
    amountsofenergy,anddemandforenergytodothis
    isexpectedtoincreasegloballyby44%between2006
    and2030(IEA,2009),especiallyinnon-OECDcoun-
    trieswherewastewatercurrentlyreceiveslittleorno
    treatment(Corcoranetal.,2010).
    Conversely,waterisneededtoproduceandmakeuse
    ofenergy.Itisrequiredforcoolinginthegeneration
    ofthermalandnuclearelectricity,andisnecessaryfor
    alternativeorrenewableformsofenergysuchashy-
    dropower(asadirectinput),aswellasconcentrated
    solarenergy.Biofuelsrepresentanadditionaldemand
    onwaterresources,andalsocompetewithfoodfor
    limitedwaterandland.In2009,thenumberofpeo-
    plewithoutaccesstoelectricitywas1.4billionor20%
    oftheworldspopulation.Globalenergyconsumption
    isexpectedtoincreasebyabout50%between2007
    and2035withnon-OECDcountriesaccountingfor
    84%ofthisincrease(IEA,2010b).Theneedtoincrease
    energysuppliestomeetrisingpopulationsandliving
    standards,aswellaspresentlyunmetdemand,creates
    severalunknowns:whichenergymixwillbeused(and
    where),andhowmuchmorewaterwillbeneededto
    generatethisadditionalenergy?Theseunknownsadd
    totheothermajoruncertaintiesregardingfuturede-
    mandsforwater.Climatechangefurthercomplicates
    theissuebecausemitigationandadaptationimpera-
    tiveshaveenergyimplications(seeSection1.2.1).As
    thepressuretoinvestinrenewableenergyintensies
    inaneforttoachievemitigationobjectives,theremay
    besignicanttrade-ofsinrelationtowaterresources.
    The crucial factor for
    water governance is
    ... the recognition that
    water is not only a
    sector.
    26 CHAPTER1
    aresynonymous.Thisisnottrue.Asisthecasefor
    agriculture,energyandothersectors,wateristhere-
    sourceuponwhichthesectorisbasedinthiscase,it
    isboththesubstanceandthemediumthroughwhich
    watersupplyandmosturbansanitationservicesare
    provided.Thiscan(andhasbeen)thesourceofsome
    confusion,evenamongthoseinthewatercommunity.
    Butitisimportanttodiferentiatewater(whichisa
    fundamentalnaturalresourcethatneedstobeman-
    agedandprotected)fromWSSservices,whichareser-
    vicesthatneedtobeprovided.
    ProvidingincreasedaccesstoWSSservicesraises
    someinterestingquestionswithrespecttouncertain-
    ties.Forexample,willsanitationalwaysbeclosely
    linkedtowaterorwillitevolvetocapturingurine
    andexcretaforproductiveuses?Willtherebemore
    captureofrainwaterorreuseofwastewaterforgar-
    densandurbangreenspaces?Thiswouldnaturally
    makeamajorchangeinhouseholdwaterconsumption.
    Manyofwatersbenetstopeopleareimparted
    throughtheservicesprovidedbytheWSSservicessec-
    tor.Directbenetstolivingstandardsincludehealth
    anddignity.Thesealsoleadtoindirectbenetssuchas
    increasedaccesstohigherlevelsofincomeandeduca-
    tion,aswellasthepromotionofgenderequalityand
    empowermentofwomen.Buttherearealsoseveral
    benetsthatarenotnecessarilyrelatedtoWSSser-
    vices.Forexample,waterisindispensibleforincome
    sourcesforbothsmallholdersandlandlesspeople,such
    asraisinglivestock.Treesandshrubsforfuelwood,
    timber,fruitsandmedicamentsneedwater.Catching
    shforfamilyconsumptioncanprovideamajorsource
    ofproteinforpoorhouseholdsandprovidesincomes
    forsmallartisanshermenandwomen.Waterisalso
    neededforvarioussmallindustriesandcrafts,likebrick-
    making,pottery,orbeer-making.(WWC,2000,p.15).
    Transportationandrecreationareyetotherexamplesof
    thebenetswereceivethroughwater.
    Watercanalsohelptoshapeourvaluesandethics,as
    individualsoraspartofwidercommunitiesthatcan
    worktogethertomanagetheresourceandshareits
    benets.Involvingendusers,particularlywomen,in
    watermanagementcontributestooptimizingbenets
    fromwaterprojects(seeSection4.2andChapter35).
    Itshouldalsoberememberedthat,inAfrica,women
    aretheoneswhoproduce60%to80%ofthefoodfor
    theirfamilies(FAO,n.d.).Waterandenergyareneeded
    forthisanditisimperativethatwomenhaveaccessto
    Therelationshipbetweenwaterandenergyillustrates
    thecentralityofwaterinrelationtootherdevelopmen-
    talsectors.Forexample,healthproblemsinducedbya
    lackofaccesstocleanenergy(e.g.cookinginsideon
    woodburners)oftengohand-in-handwithdiseases
    causedbylackofaccesstosafedrinkingwater(see
    Section4.1andChapter34).Howcangovernments
    simultaneouslydeliverexpandedenergyaccesswhile
    alsoincreasingaccesstowaterforbothpersonaland
    productiveuses?Enhancingefciencyinbothenergy
    productionandtheextraction,deliveryandtreatment
    ofwaterwillbecritical,aswillthechoiceofenergy
    sourceaccordingtocontext.Biofuelsareanincreas-
    inglyprominentcomponentoftheenergymix,as
    exempliedbytheEUtargetforbiofuelstoconsti-
    tute10%oftransportfuelby2020(EU,2007).This
    targethasbeenhotlydebatedasitactsasadriver
    forconversionoflandfromfoodtobiofuelproduc-
    tion,placingupwardpressureonfoodprices,andin
    somecasesleadingtotheconversionofforesteco-
    systemstolandtogrowbiofuels.Estimatesvary,but
    evenmodestprojectionsofbiofuelproductionsuggest
    thatifby2030astheIEAsuggestsjust5%ofroad
    transportispoweredbybiofuels,thiscouldamountto
    atleast20%ofthewaterusedforagricultureglobally
    (ComprehensiveAssessmentofWaterManagementin
    Agriculture,2007).Ofcourse,shouldalternativetech-
    nologiesforbiofuel(e.g.photobioreactorsforalgae)
    becomeavailableonalargescale,theseprojections
    couldchangedramatically,furtherillustratingthein-
    creasinguncertaintiesrelatedtofuturewaterdemands
    fromdiferent,ofteninterconnected,demandsectors.
    1.1.3People
    Beyondphysiologicalhydration(roughly60%ofhu-
    manbodyweightiswater)waterisnecessaryfor
    meetingmostofourbasicphysiologicalneedsand
    providesuswithmyriadadditionalbenets(see
    Chapter4).Accesstodrinkingwatersupplyandsani-
    tation(WSS)servicesiskeytomeetingmanyofthese
    needs.Theimportanceofsafedrinkingwaterandsani-
    tationforhumanhealth,well-beingandsocio-econom-
    icdevelopmentiswellestablishedandis,quiteunder-
    standably,arecurringissueinthisreport.
    WSSisaservicesector,whichlikeelectricityissup-
    portedbydiferentinstitutionalarrangementsand
    nancialmechanismstoprovidepeoplewithasetof
    basicservices.Infact,theWSSservicessectorisso
    importantthatithasledtoacommonandreoccurring
    misperception:thatwaterandtheWSSservicessector
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 27 RECOGNIZINGTHECENTRALITYOFWATERANDITSGLOBALDIMENSIONS
    waterforirrigationfromsurface,groundandrainfed
    sources,generallyatasmallscale.Thisissometimesa
    functionoflandandwaterrights,butalsorequiresthat
    localwatermanagersrecognizewomenswaterneeds
    outsideofthehousehold.Watermanagerscanwork
    withmenandwomenwhouseWSSservicestondout
    whattheyneedandwhatthebestsolutionsare.Urban
    andruralcommunitiescanmakepracticalcontributions
    regardingnewapproachestourbanplanningandland
    use,andcanidentifythemostsuitabletechnicalsolu-
    tions,includingtechnology,thelocationofvariousfacili-
    ties,andthemostappropriatesourcesofwater,accord-
    ingtowhattheycanaford.Thecommunitycansupport
    theirwaterfacilitythroughresourcemobilizationand
    labourforconstruction,operationandmaintenance.
    1.1.4Ecosystems
    Ecosystemsprovideamultitudeofbenetstohumans
    (ecosystemservices);forexample,productssuchas
    food,timber,medicinesandbre,regulatingclimate
    andsupportingnutrientcycling,andsoilformation
    anddeposition.Providingwater,asaresourcefordi-
    rectuse,isalsoanecosystemserviceintermsofboth
    itsqualityanditsquantity.Ecosystems,inturn,also
    dependonwaterinordertofunction;whentheyare
    stressedthebenetsarereducedoreliminated(see
    Sections2.5and4.3andChapter21).
    Thewatercycleisabiophysicalprocess.Withoutlife
    onearththewatercyclewouldstillexist,butbequite
    diferent.Ecosystemsunderpinthesustainablequan-
    tityandqualityofwateravailable:forexample,thelife
    insoilsregulateswaterstoragethereandnutrientcy-
    cling,supportingallterrestriallife(includingfoodpro-
    duction);forests(throughplanttranspiration)regulate
    localandregionalhumidityandprecipitation;wetlands
    (andsoils)regulatetheextremesofdroughtandood.
    Theroleofecosystemsinthewatercyclehastwoin-
    terrelatedimplicationsforwatermanagement.The
    rstisthatwatermustbeallocatedsoastoalloweco-
    systemstocontinuetodeliverthelevelofbenetswe
    need(e.g.throughmaintainingenvironmentalows).
    2

    Thesecondisthatecosystemscanbeproactivelyman-
    aged(otherthanbyallocatingwatertothem),through,
    forexample,conservationorrehabilitation,inorder
    todeliverwhatweneedtomeetwater-relatedobjec-
    tives.Forexample,forestsareverygoodatdeliver-
    ingcleanwater,andwetlandsatregulatingoodsand
    restoringsoilfunctionality,akeymechanismtocombat
    desertication.
    Thestabilityofecosystemsisunderincreasingthreat
    fromunsustainablepatternsofhumanconsumption,
    development,andclimatechangeacrosstheglobe.
    TheMillenniumEcosystemAssessmentstatesthat
    theprimaryindirectdriversofdegradationandloss
    ofinlandandcoastalwetlandshavebeenpopulation
    growthandincreasingeconomicdevelopment(MA,
    2005).Examplesofecosystemdamagelargelycoin-
    cidewithareasofhighwaterstress,suchasinWest
    AsiaandtheIndo-GangeticPlaininSouthAsia,the
    NorthChinaPlainandthehighplainsinNorthAmerica
    (Arthurtonetal.,2007).Excessivewithdrawalofboth
    surfaceandgroundwateroverthepast50yearsfor
    agriculture,energy,industryandurbangrowthhasled
    toasituationinmanypartsoftheworldwherewater
    abstractionexceedsthethresholdofwaterrenewabil-
    ityintheriverbasin,resultinginwidespreaddamage
    toecosystems(MolleandValle,2009).Theprecise
    amountofwaterrequiredtosustainagivenecosystem
    overacertainperiodisoftenunknown,andallocation
    decisionswouldalsodependonthetypeofecosystem
    servicestobemaintained.Asthisisasocietaljudge-
    mentthatcanalsovaryovertime,itaddstotheuncer-
    taintiesinanticipatingfuturewaterdemands.
    1.1.5Water-relatedhazards
    Manyoftheimpactsofnaturalhazardsonsocio-eco-
    nomicdevelopmentoccurthroughwater(seeSection
    4.4andChapter27).Between1990and2000,insev-
    eraldevelopingcountries,naturaldisasterscaused
    damagerepresentingbetween2%and15%oftheiran-
    nualGDP(WorldBank,2004;WWAP,2009).Water-
    relatedhazardsaccountfor90%ofallnaturalhazards,
    andtheirfrequencyandintensityisgenerallyrising.
    Some373naturaldisasterskilledover296,800people
    in2010,afectingnearly208millionothersandcosting
    nearlyUS$110billion(UN,2011).
    Theincreaseinnaturaldisasterlossesoverthepastfew
    decadesislargelyattributabletotheincreaseinthe
    valueofexposedassets(Bouwer,2011).Whilethereis
    currentlynoevidencethatclimatechangeisdirectly
    responsibleforincreasedlossesassociatedwithwater-
    relatedhazards(Bouwer,2011),itisexpectedtobring
    aboutanincreaseinthefrequencyofcertainnatural
    hazards,includingoodsanddroughts(IPCC,2007).
    Watermanagementplaysacentralroleinreducingthe
    risksofnaturaldisasters.Waterstorage(viareservoirs,
    aquiferrechargeorothermeans)isvitaltocombating
    theefectsofdrought,providingasupplybuferthat
    28
    canbemadeavailableforkeybenecialusesduring
    timesofscarcity.Reservoirscanalsoservetoretain
    oodwaters,andareoftenanimportantcomponent
    ofphysicalooddefencesystems,alongwithlevees,
    weirsanddykesdesignedtopreventriversfromburst-
    ingtheirbanks.
    Suchinfrastructureformspartofabroaderandinte-
    gratedwatermanagementsystem(seeChapters5,
    11and12),whichalsoincludeecosystemsandurban
    drainagesystems,whoseoperationandmaintenance
    (whenavailable)reduceuncertaintiesandriskstowa-
    terusesectorsanddevelopmentgoals.Risinglevels
    ofuncertaintyandriskassociatedwithextremeevents
    areindeedworrying,butmustnotbecomeparalyzing.
    Quitetheopposite:notknowingsomethingimplies
    opportunitiestondoutmoreandthenotionofrisk
    impliestheexistenceofchoices.Itispossibletoinu-
    enceoutcomesincludingminimizingriskormitigating
    itsimpacts(seeChapter8).
    1.1.6Watersroleingreeningeconomiesandgrowth
    Recognizingthecentralityofwaterforsustainable
    developmentiscrucialinthedevelopmentofagreen
    economy.Inagreeneconomy,theroleofwaterin
    maintainingecosystemservicesandwatersupply
    wouldbeacknowledged,appreciatedandpaidfor
    (UNEP,2011).Directbenetstosocietyasawholecan
    begainedbyincreasinginvestmentinwatersupply
    andsanitation,includinginvestmentinwastewater
    treatment,watershedprotectionandtheconserva-
    tionofecosystemscriticalforwater.Newapproaches,
    suchasplanningforadaptationtouncertainfutures,
    theadoptionofgreentechnologies,improvingtheef-
    ciencyofwaterprovision,anddevelopingalternative
    watersourcesandformsofmanagement(e.g.desali-
    nation,waterrecoveryandreuse,paymentforenvi-
    ronmentalservices,ecosystemconservation,improved
    propertyrights)willplayanessentialroleinenablinga
    cross-sectoraltransitiontoagreeneconomy.Thecon-
    siderationoffullcostsofserviceprovisionmayalsobe
    anenablingfactor,butthisprinciplehasoftenproven
    tobeimpracticalinmanysituationsasitcanbedif-
    culttoimplementinpractice,especiallyindeveloping
    countries.
    Managingwatersustainablysupportstheoverallobjec-
    tivesofagreeneconomyoragreengrowthpathway,
    andalsosatisescriticalsocialimperativesofpoverty
    alleviation,foodandenergysecurity,andhealthand
    dignity,throughtheprovisionofwaterandsanitation
    services.Investmentinandprotectionandsustain-
    ablemanagementofwaterresources,acrosssociety
    asawhole,allowsignicantstepstobemadetowards
    achievingagreeneconomythatadvanceslong-term
    humanwell-beingwithinecologicallimits(seeChapters
    12and24).Thewaythatwaterismanagedandallocat-
    edhasimpactsacrossallareasofsocietyandeconomy,
    anditsgovernancemustmovefromthepumproom
    totheBoardroom(Steer,2010).Embeddingwater
    managementasthecentralpillarofsustainabledevel-
    opmentrequiresinstitutionsthatfacilitatediscussion
    anddecisionsonsocietystargetsandtheallocationof
    waterresourcestooptimizegenerationandequitable
    distributionofitsmanybenets.Itis,then,theroleof
    watermanagerstoinformtheprocessanddowhatis
    necessarytoimplementthedecisions.
    Asconceptualizedwithinagreeneconomy,thoseben-
    ettingfromenvironmentalserviceswouldbevalued
    stakeholders,alongsideotherwateruserswhowould
    berecompensedtoprovidemoreequitablydistributed
    benets.Thepolluterpaysprincipleprovidesabasic
    modelwithwhichtoachievethis,supportedbyrobust
    andproactiveregulationonarelevantriverbasinscale
    toidentifypollutersandenforcecompensationforthe
    restorationofenvironmentalimpacts.Furthermore,ex-
    istingaspectsofsoundwaterpoliciesrelatedtopoverty
    alleviationandgenderequalityarealreadysupportive
    oftheobjectivesofagreeneconomy,wherebyallwater
    usershavefairandequitableaccesstothebenetsof
    maintainingahealthyenvironment.Forexample,the
    provisionofwaterservicestofamiliesinextremepov-
    ertyinLima,Peru,withintheframeworkoftheWaterfor
    CHAPTER1
    Managing water
    sustainably supports
    the overall objectives
    of a green economy
    or a green growth
    pathway, and also
    satises critical social
    imperatives.
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 29 RECOGNIZINGTHECENTRALITYOFWATERANDITSGLOBALDIMENSIONS
    AllProgramme,isestimatedtohaveincreasedtotaldis-
    posablefamilyincomeby14%permonth,resultingfrom
    lowerwaterexpendituresandreducedhealthcarecosts
    (Garrido-Lecca,2010;seeBox1.1).
    1.2Beyondthebasin:Theinternationaland
    globaldimensionsofwatergovernance
    Thedriversofwateruseandavailability(theimpactof
    manyofwhichisuncertain)arefoundnotjustoutside
    thewaterboxandbeyondthesector,butalsooften
    inothernationstates.Althoughwaterisdistributed
    unevenlyacrosstheplanet,itformspartofaglobal
    cyclethehydrologicalorwatercyclewhichcanbe
    interruptedbyactionsandphenomenathattakeplace
    beyondthenationstate(e.g.regionallythroughup-
    streamdiversionsandgloballythroughtheimpactsof
    climatechange).Otheraspectsoftheglobalequation
    includetheinternationaldistributionofcertainwater-
    relatedbenets(predominantlyexpressedthrough
    tradeinagriculturalproducts),therisingglobalde-
    mandforwater,thelimitedavailabilityoftheresource
    atanyonetimeorplace,andtheover-consumptionof
    waterandhigh-watercontentofgoodsandcommodi-
    tiesinsomedevelopedcountries.Buildingonthese
    observations,thissectionaddressesfourprominent,
    interconnectedfactorsthatintroduceaglobaldi-
    mensiontowatergovernance:climatechange,trans-
    boundarybasins,globaltradeandinternationalinvest-
    mentprotection,andequity.
    1.2.1Climatechange
    Climatechangehighlightsthecentralityofwaterin
    relationtoakeyglobalissue.First,becausetheworst
    climateimpactsaredeliveredthroughachangingwater
    cycle,andtheiravoidancerequiresglobalcooperation
    onaclimatechangeagreement.Second,unavoidable
    climatechangeimpactsthroughwaterindeveloping
    countriesresultinanobligationfordevelopedcountries
    toassistsomeinadaptingtotheseimpacts.Third,ef-
    fortstoimprovewatergovernancearrangementsare,
    inefect,thefocusofclimatechangeadaptationneeds,
    andmustbeexplicitlyrecognizedassuchinclimate
    changefunding.Andlast,climatechangemitigation
    andadaptationresponsesarerelatedbecausethecar-
    bonandwatercyclesareinterdependent.
    TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange
    (IPCC)statesthatwateranditsavailabilityandquality
    willbethemainpressureson,andissuesfor,societies
    andtheenvironmentunderclimatechange(Bateset
    al.,2008,p.7).Peoplewillfeeltheimpactofclimate
    changemoststronglythroughchangesinthedistribu-
    tionofwateraroundtheworldanditsseasonaland
    annualvariability(Stern,2007).Thepoor,whoarethe
    mostvulnerable,arealsolikelytobeafectedthemost
    (Stern,2007).Climatechangealsoleadstonewun-
    certaintiesconcerningfuturewaterdemandthrough
    diferentwater-usingsectors.Forexample,global
    warmingsuggestsincreasedenergydemandsforair
    conditioning,andhigherevapotranspirationrates
    couldincreasefuturedemandsforagriculture.
    Thepreciseimpactsofclimatechangethroughwa-
    ter,inparticularlocations,remainuncertainandare
    notoriouslydifculttopredict,especiallyatthelocal
    InPeru,theWaterforAllProgrammewasdesignednot
    onlyasamechanismforexpandingthecoverageofwa-
    tersupplyandsanitationservices,butalsoasacost-
    basedapproachtothealleviationofextremepovertyor
    indigence.
    Onceconnectedtothenetwork,familieslivinginex-
    tremepoverty,whopreviouslyboughtwaterindrums,
    morethantripledtheirwaterconsumption.However,
    theirmonthlyspendingonwaterdecreased,resultingina
    10%increaseindisposableincome.TheProgrammealso
    helpedreducegastrointestinaldiseasescausedbyalack
    ofbasicservicesandbyinadequatesanitaryconditions,
    withestimatedadditionalmonthlysavingsforfamilies
    fromlowerhealthcarecoststakingaccountonlyofthe
    eliminationoftheepisodesofacutediarrhoealdiseases
    ofabout4%permonth(resultinginatotalincreasein
    disposablefamilyincomeof14%permonth).
    TheaspirationoftheProgrammeisthat,byreducing
    unavoidableexpenses,freeingupcashowandincreas-
    ingdisposableincome,itwillultimatelygenerateasmall
    amountofsavingsthatwillallowfamiliestotransition
    towardspovertylevelsthatatleastmakeinclusioninthe
    formalmarketpossible.
    ApotentiallyattractivefeatureoftheProgrammeisthatit
    hasaonce-ofinvestmentcost;thefamiliesthemselvesthen
    payfortheservicewithonlyasmall,pre-existingcross-
    subsidythatcoversaninitialconsumptionblock.Therefore,
    intermsofsustainabilityandfromascalpointofview,the
    Programmedoesnotjeopardizeitscontinuityorthebene-
    ciarieschancesofescapingfromextremepoverty.
    BOX 1.1
    WaterforAllProgramme,Peru
    Sources: Garrido-Lecca (2010, 2011).
    30
    ofdevelopingcountries,whichmaybefacingincreas-
    ingwaterscarcity,andwheretheadaptivecapacityof
    institutionsisoftenrestrictedbydecientdesign,low
    operationalcapacity,andinsufcienthumanandnan-
    cialresources.Forthesecountries,whichhavecontrib-
    utedtheleastamountofGHGs,adaptationrepresents
    anadditionalnancialburdenthatmanynddifcult
    tosupportwithoutassistancefromthemostpromi-
    nentGHG-producingcountries.
    Thecostofadaptingtotheimpactsofa2Crisein
    globalaveragetemperaturecouldrangefromUS$70
    toUS$100billionperyearbetween2020and2050
    (WorldBank,2010).Ofthesecosts,betweenUS$13.7
    billion(drierscenario)andUS$19.2billion(wettersce-
    nario)willberelatedtothewatersector,predomi-
    nantlythroughwatersupplyandoodmanagement.
    However,theseestimatesdonottakeaccountofthe
    benetswaterprovidesthroughothersectors(food,
    energy,health,etc.)andisthusunder-representative
    ofthefullvalueofthebenetsthatwouldbeobtained
    fromagreaterfocusonadaptationthroughwater.
    Waterscentralroleinadaptation,andinsocio-
    economicdevelopmentingeneral,meritsexplicitrec-
    ognitionintheongoingnegotiationsconcerningGreen
    ClimateFund(GCF)
    3
    andothernancingmechanisms.
    Furthermore,infrastructuredevelopment,aswellas
    theinstitutionalreformsrequiredtoensuretheopti-
    mizationofwatersbenetsacrossvarioussocio-eco-
    nomicsectors,shouldbeconsideredaskeycompo-
    nentsofclimatechangeadaptation.
    Inmitigationterms,theappropriatenessofglobalin-
    terventionsandmechanismsrelatingtolanduse,nota-
    blyforestryandagricultureshouldbeanalysedinways
    thatincludetheirpotentialimpactsonwaterineach
    context.
    Inrecognitionoftherolethatdeforestationplaysin
    contributingtoglobalGHGemissions(estimatessug-
    gestbetween20%and25%oftotalemissions),the
    UNFCCChasexploredoptionsthroughitsinitiative
    onReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForest
    Degradation(REDD)(UN,2009).REDDbasicallyas-
    cribesavaluetothecarbonsequestrationpotential
    offorestsandcallsondevelopedcountriestotransfer
    fundstodevelopingcountriestopreservethosefor-
    eststohelpmitigateclimatechange.However,there-
    lationshipbetweenwaterandforestsiscomplex.While
    itistruethatforestsrelyonwateravailabilityfortheir
    long-termsustainabilitythroughgroundwater,surface
    orriverbasinlevel.UnderdiferentIPCCscenarios,
    regionsmaybecomedrierorwetter,astherearea
    varietyofpossiblewaysinwhichclimatechangemay
    impactthehydrologicalcycleindiferentareasandat
    diferenttimes.Whatiscertainisthattheuncertain-
    tiesgeneratedbyclimatechangeaddaglobaldimen-
    siontothechallengesofwaterresourcesmanagement,
    asefortstoefectivelymanagewaterlocallymaybe
    impededbyclimate-inducedhydrologicalimpactsor
    increasingdemands.Efortstolimitnegativeclimate
    changeimpactsoccurringthroughthewatercyclere-
    quirecollective,globalefortstoreducecarbonemis-
    sions,whichgobeyondthegovernancedomainofwa-
    termanagerswhooperateatthelocal,nationalorriver
    basinlevel(Hoekstra,2011,p.24).Indeed,discussions
    ontherespectiveresponsibilitiesandcapabilitiesof
    statestoreducegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsare
    rightlyconductedthroughtheUNFCCC.
    EvenifthemostambitiousGHGreductionagree-
    mentweretobeimplementednow,itwouldlikelynot
    preventtheworldfromexperiencingacertainlevel
    ofclimatechange.Theinterconnectednatureofour
    globaleconomymeans,forexample,thatclimate-in-
    ducedwatershocksinanimportantfood-producing
    regionmaypotentiallyhavesignicantimpactson
    foodsecurityinotherpartsoftheworld.Buttheca-
    pacitytoadapttoclimatechangeimpactsthroughthe
    watercycleisextremelylow,particularlyinanumber
    CHAPTER1
    The carbon cycle
    (the realm of climate
    change mitigation) and
    the water cycle (the
    realm of adaptation)
    are interlinked:
    ecosystems require
    water to store carbon
    and by doing so
    impact water.
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 31 RECOGNIZINGTHECENTRALITYOFWATERANDITSGLOBALDIMENSIONS
    waterandprecipitation,itisalsotruethatforestsplay
    acentralroleinimprovingwaterqualityand,bymain-
    tainingorimprovingsoilinltrationandsoilwaterstor-
    agecapacity,theyinuencethetimingofwaterdeliv-
    ery(Hamilton,2008).Forestsalsoplayanimportant
    self-regulatingroleintheregionalcyclingofwaterby
    re-interceptingatmosphericwaterlocallygeneratedby
    evaporationandredistributingitoverdiferentparts
    oftheforest(Hamilton,2008).Thekeypointisthat
    thecarboncycle(therealmofclimatechangemitiga-
    tion)andthewatercycle(therealmofadaptation)are
    interlinked:ecosystemsrequirewatertostorecarbon
    andbydoingsoimpactwater.
    Agriculturehasinrecentyearsalsoemergedasapo-
    tentialareaforcarbonsequestration,anddiscussions
    haveemergedastowhethersustainableagricultural
    practicesthatreducebusiness-as-usualcarbonemis-
    sionsmightbeeligibleforcarboncredits.Yetwater
    remainsanunder-recognizedpartofthisequation.
    Farmingpracticesthatsequestermorecarbonusu-
    allydosobyrestoringsoilfunctionsandlandcover,
    bothofwhichrequiretheconservationofsoilwater.
    Thelinkagesbetweencarbon,waterandsustainable
    farmingarethereforeusuallysignicantandmutu-
    allyinclusive.Aglobalmarketincentiveforlow-carbon
    farming,therefore,involvesasignicantwaterdimen-
    sion.Theseexamplesservetohighlighttheglobaland
    multi-disciplinary,interfacesofwatergovernancein
    relationtoclimatechangeobjectives.
    ApolicybriefissuedbyUN-Watermakesthecasefor
    watersroleinadaptationtoclimatechange(Box1.2).
    1.2.2Transboundarybasins
    Waterisnotconnedwithinpoliticalborders.Anesti-
    mated148stateshaveinternationalbasinswithintheir
    territory(OSU,n.d.,2008data),and21countrieslie
    entirelywithinthem(OSU,n.d.,2002data).Inaddition,
    about2billionpeopleworldwidedependongroundwa-
    tersupplies,whichincludetodate273transboundary
    aquifersystems(ISARM,2009;PuriandAureli,2009).
    Therearenumerousexampleswheretransbound-
    arywatershaveprovedtobeasourceofcoopera-
    tionratherthanconict.TheFoodandAgriculture
    OrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)hasidenti-
    edmorethan3,600treatiesrelatingtointernational
    waterresources(FAO,1984).Theearliestrecorded
    water-relatedinternationaltreatyisusuallyconsidered
    tobetheonewhichconcludedtherstandonlywater
    war(betweenUmmaandLagashcitystates).Nearly
    450agreementsoninternationalwatersweresigned
    between1820and2007(OSU,n.d.,2007data).
    Therearenumerousexamplesofexistingbilateraland
    regionalwateragreements,includingtheGreatLakes
    WaterQualityAgreement(1978),theConventionon
    Co-operationfortheProtectionandSustainableUse
    oftheRiverDanube(1994)andtheAgreementonthe
    Wateristheprimarymediumthroughwhichclimate
    changeinuencesEarthsecosystemandthustheliveli-
    hoodandwell-beingofsocieties.Highertemperatures
    andchangesinextremeweatherconditionsareprojected
    toafectavailabilityanddistributionofrainfall,snowmelt,
    riverowsandgroundwater,andfurtherdeterioratewater
    quality.Thepoor,whoarethemostvulnerable,arelikely
    tobeadverselyafected.
    Adaptationtoclimatechangeisurgent.Waterplaysa
    pivotalroleinit,butthepoliticalworldhasyettorecog-
    nizethisnotion.Asaconsequence,adaptationmeas-
    uresinwatermanagementareoftenunderrepresented
    innationalplansorininternationalinvestmentportfo-
    lios.Therefore,signicantinvestmentsandpolicyshifts
    areneeded.Theseshouldbeguidedbythefollowing
    principles:
    Hainstreamadaptationswithinthebroaderdevelop-
    mentcontext
    Strengthengovernanceandimprovewater
    management
    lmproveandshareknowledgeandinformationon
    climateandadaptationmeasures,andinvestindata
    collection
    Buildlongtermresiliencethroughstrongerinstitutions
    andinvestininfrastructureandinwell-functioning
    ecosystems
    lnvestincostefectiveandadaptivewatermanage-
    mentaswellastechnologytransfer
    Leverageadditionalfundsthroughbothincreasedna-
    tionalbudgetaryallocationsandinnovativefunding
    mechanismsforadaptationinwatermanagement
    Applicationoftheseprincipleswouldrequirejointeforts
    andlocal-to-globalcollaborationamongsectoral,multi-
    sectoralaswellasmultidisciplinaryinstitutions.
    BOX 1.2
    Climatechangeadaptation:Thepivotalroleofwater
    Source: An extract from the UN-Water policy brief Climate Change
    Adaptation: The Pivotal Role of Water, available at http://www.
    unwater.org/downloads/unw_ccpol_web.pdf (p. 1, Executive
    Summary).
    32
    CooperationfortheSustainableDevelopmentofthe
    MekongRiverBasin(1995).TheIndusWaterTreaty,
    signedbetweenPakistanandIndiain1960,hassur-
    vivedthreemajorconictsandremainsintacttoday.
    Benetsharing,asopposedtothesharingofwater
    resources,representsakeypositiveaspectintrans-
    boundarycooperation,asexempliedbytheNile
    BasinInitiativesSocio-economicandBenetsSharing
    Project(2010)thatbuildsanetworkofprofession-
    alsfromeconomicplanningandresearchinstitutions,
    technicalexpertsfromboththepublicandprivate
    sectors,academics,sociologists,andrepresentatives
    fromcivicgroupsandNGOsfromacrossthebasinto
    explorealternativeNiledevelopmentscenariosand
    benet-sharingschemes.
    4
    However,multipleandin-
    creasingdriversofwateruseandtheuncertainties
    associatedwiththemarelikelytoputexistingtrans-
    boundaryagreementsundersignicantstrain.The
    increasingdemandforwaterforagriculture,industry,
    energyandurbanizationislikelytoputpressureon
    transboundaryrelationsasstatesmayseektomake
    moreriverdiversions,storemorewaterandfurther
    exploitaquifers.Theneedtomeeta60%increasein
    demandforenergyoverthenextthreedecades,com-
    binedwiththeimperativetoinvestincleanenergyto
    mitigateclimatechange,isalreadymakinghydropow-
    erandbiofuelscriticalpartsofthedevelopmentequa-
    tion(Steer,2010).Only5%oftotalhydropowerpoten-
    tialhasbeenexploitedinAfrica(IEA,2010a),where
    manyhydropowersitesaresituatedontransboundary
    rivers,thusprovidingsignicantopportunitiesforin-
    creasedcooperationonbenet-sharingamongneigh-
    bouringstates.
    Theincreasingpressuresontransboundarywatersre-
    quiresignicantinvestmentinpoliticalcapital(Steer,
    2010)soastoeitherrenegotiateexistingbutinad-
    equatetransboundaryarrangementswhereneeded,
    orestablishnewonesthatasyetdonotexist.Despite
    theproliferationofagreementsontransboundarywa-
    termanagement,thereremainnumerousriverbasins
    andaquiferswithoutadequatelegalframeworksfor
    cooperation.Accordingtoarecentstudy,60%ofthe
    worlds276internationalriverbasinslackanytypeof
    cooperativemanagementframework(DeStefanoetal.,
    2010).
    Theroleofglobalguidelinesandnormativelegalprin-
    ciplesiscriticalinthisregard.TheUNConventionon
    theLawoftheNon-navigationalUsesofInternational
    Watercourseswasadoptedin1997after27yearsof
    development.TheConventionestablishestherights
    andobligationsbetweenstatesrelatingtotheman-
    agement,useandprotectionofinternationalwater-
    courses,whichincludesgroundwater.Todate,only24
    nationshaveratiedtheConventionandafurther11
    arerequiredforittoenterintoforce.Theprinciples
    enshrinedwithintheConvention,includingthosewide-
    lyrecognizedaspartofcustomarylaw,canstillbe
    usedashelpfulguidelinesirrespectiveofratication.
    Nevertheless,entryintoforcerepresentsavitalstep
    intheprocessoffurtherclarifyingand,whereneces-
    sary,developingandadaptingtherulesofthegameto
    emergingchallenges,sothattheConventioncanefec-
    tivelyfullitsrolesofgoverningandguidinginterstate
    relations.InEurope,the1992UnitedNationsEconomic
    CommissionforEurope(UNECE)Conventiononthe
    ProtectionandUseofTrans-boundaryWatercourses
    andInternationalLakeshasbeenusedasthebasis
    foradoptionofmanybilateralandmultilateralagree-
    ments.TheConventionwasamendedin2003toallow
    accessiontocountriesoutsidetheUNECEregion.The
    amendmentisexpectedtoenterintoforcein2012,
    therebymakingthissuccessfulframeworkavailableto
    allUNMemberStates.Thereisalsoemergingrecogni-
    tionofthegovernancedimensionsoftransboundary
    aquifers.TheInternationalSharedAquiferResources
    Management(ISARM)ProgrammeisaUNESCO-
    ledworldwideefortinvolvingmultipleUNagencies,
    whichstrivetodrawattentiontotheissue.
    5
    TheUN
    GeneralAssemblyreafrmedinitssixty-sixthsession
    on9December2011theimportanceoftransbound-
    aryaquifersandtherelatedDraftArticles.Itadopted
    aresolutioninwhichStatesareencouragedtomake
    properarrangementsfortransboundaryaquiferman-
    agementandUNESCO-IHPtocontinueitsrelated
    scienticandtechnicalsupporttotheStates.Inaddi-
    tion,theGeneralAssemblydecidedtoputTheLaw
    ofTransboundaryAquifersontheprovisionalagenda
    ofitssixty-eightsession,inordertoexamineamong
    othersthenalformtobegiventotheDraftArticles.
    Theunavoidablerealitythatwaterresourcesdonot
    respectpoliticalboundariesdemonstratesthesupra-
    nationaldimensionsofwater,andrepresentsacom-
    pellingcaseforinternationalcooperationonwater
    management.Multipleandmountingpressureson
    waterresourcesgloballyurgecautionagainstcompla-
    cency.Astrongfocusonresourceprotection,sustain-
    abilityandbenetsharingbetweenstatesthrough
    robustandfairbasin,aquifer,estuarineandinshore
    arrangementsandinstitutions,supportedbyastrong
    CHAPTER1 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 33 RECOGNIZINGTHECENTRALITYOFWATERANDITSGLOBALDIMENSIONS
    Inmanywaysatleastatfacevaluevirtualwa-
    tertradeisaprocessthatrepresentsasensibleand
    winwinrealignmentofthewaterneedsofcountries
    andtheirenvironmentalandeconomiccircumstanc-
    es.Analysesshowthat,indeed,thetradingofvirtual
    waterhasinmanycasesledtocertainefciencysav-
    ings.Figure1.1showstradeowsthatsavemorethan
    5Gm
    3
    peryear.Exportofagriculturalproducts(mainly
    maizeandsoybeanproducts)fromtheUnitedStates
    ofAmerica(USA)toJapanandMexicorepresentthe
    largestglobalwatersavings,accountingforover11%of
    thetotalglobalwatersaving(HoekstraandMekonnen,
    2011).
    Althoughglobalwatertradecanleadtosignicant
    nationalwatersavings,throughvirtuallytransporting
    waterfromaplaceofrelativeabundancetoaplaceof
    relativescarcity,tradealonecannotguaranteesus-
    tainablewatermanagementatthesource.Indeed,as
    virtualwater-exportingnationsincreasinglyrespond
    toglobaldemand,thedimensionsofresponsibilityfor
    sustainablewatermanagementaresubsequentlyel-
    evatedtoamorecomplexandsupranationalrelation-
    shipbetweenconsumerandproducer.
    Oneofthechallengestoenhancingwaterefciency
    andproductivityisthattherearenoimmediate,direct
    andsolidsystemofinternationalwaterlaw,willbe
    criticalinanimpendingeraofglobalwaterresource
    constraints.
    1.2.3Globaltrade
    Waterisatrulyglobalissuethroughitstradeasvirtual
    water(alsoknownasembeddedwater).Thisrefersto
    thevolumeofwaterusedintheproductionofagood
    orservice.Throughthisprocess,countriesengagein
    watertradingthroughproductsratherthanthrough
    thephysicaltransportationofwateritself,whichis
    adifcultandcostlyexercise.Asaresult,billionsof
    tonnesoffoodandotherproductsthatrequirewa-
    tertoproducearetradedglobally.Somewater-scarce
    countries,includinganumberintheMiddleEast,have
    becomenetimportersofvirtualwater,relyingonthe
    importationofagriculturalcommoditiestomeetthe
    foodneedsoftheirgrowingpopulations.Aspercapita
    waterscarcitygrows,moreandmorecountriesmay
    beincreasinglyincapableoffeedingthemselveswith
    theamountofwatertheyhaveavailable,andwillthus
    havetomaketrade-ofsintheireconomic,agriculture
    andtradepolicies.Othercountries,includinganumber
    ofEuropeannations,arealsonetimportersofvirtu-
    alwaterduetotheconsumertastesanddemandsof
    theirpopulationsforparticularfoodstufsandproducts
    viaimports(Hoekstra,2011).
    FIGURE 1.1
    Globalwatersavingsassociatedwithinternationaltradeinagriculturalproducts(19962005)
    Note: Only the biggest water savings (> 5 Gm
    3
    per year) are shown.
    Source: Mekonnen and Hoekstra (2011, p. 24).
    89%
    6%
    5%
    73%
    21%
    -6%
    54%
    1%
    45%
    85%
    -1%
    14%
    50%
    40%
    -10%
    71%
    24%
    -5%
    85%
    -12%
    -3%
    5.7
    Gm
    3
    /yr
    -3%
    60%
    37% 5.4
    Gm
    3
    /yr
    5.6
    Gm
    3
    /yr
    25
    Gm
    3
    /yr
    16
    Gm
    3
    /yr
    5.1
    Gm
    3
    /yr
    5.0
    Gm
    3
    /yr
    83%
    8%
    -9%
    5.0
    Gm
    3
    /yr
    77%
    6%
    17%
    12
    Gm
    3
    /yr
    85%
    13%
    -2%
    -30%
    38%
    32%
    7.4
    Gm
    3
    /yr
    9.3
    Gm
    3
    /yr
    7.8
    Gm
    3
    /yr
    Green Grey
    Blue
    34
    incentivestoactuallydothis.Theincentivesthatare
    availableareinturninuencedbyglobaltradeimpera-
    tiveswhichareclearlybeyondregulatoryreachofwa-
    termanagers.Ifwater-intensiveproductsweretraded
    onlywithinthenationstatethenmarket-basedpolicies
    toincentivisesustainablewatermanagementprac-
    ticescouldpotentiallybeinstitutedrelativelyeasily,
    includingperhapsawaterscarcityrentorthroughan
    internalizationofexternalities;forexample,incorpo-
    ratingintothecostofaproductitsnegativeimpacton
    freshwaterecosystemsandtherebyincentivizingthe
    producertoreduceoreliminatetheirenvironmental
    impact.Butinaglobalizedeconomyitisachallenge
    toinstitutesuchpoliciesonanationaloraregional
    levelastheymayarticiallyincreasecostsofproducts
    fromthatareaandmakethemuncompetitive.
    Thevirtualwatertradecanprovideopportunitiesfor
    developingcountriesblessedwitharelativeabun-
    danceofrenewablefreshwatersuppliestogrowtheir
    economiesbyexportingincreasingamountsoffood,if
    theycanafordtheinfrastructuretoharnessthewater
    andtherearenoarticialbarriersininternationaltrade.
    Unfortunately,manycountriesstillrequiresomekind
    ofnancialsupportinordertodevelopthisinfrastruc-
    tureandremaincompetitivewithintheglobalmarkets.
    Anothertroublingissueconcernsdevelopingcountries
    thatarewater-scarceandwhosepeoplearetoopoor
    tobuyimportedfood.Asisthecasewithmostglo-
    balizationprocesses,virtualwatertradecanleadtoa
    furthermarginalizationoftheworldspoorestwomen
    andmen.
    Thegrowingtrendtowardslargelandacquisitions,
    6

    whichinsomecasescanleadtosignicantadvances
    ininfrastructuredevelopment,alsoraisessomecon-
    cernsaboutequitabledistributionofbenetstothe
    hostcountryanditspeople.Althoughwatershortages
    areanimportantdriveroflarge-scalelandacquisitions
    byinvestors,wateristypicallynotexplicitlymen-
    tionedindisclosedlanddeals.Inthefewcaseswhere
    waterisreferredto,theamountofwaterwithdraw-
    alstobepermittedisnotspecied.Theruralpoorend
    upcompetingforscarcerwaterwithactorsthatare
    morepowerfulandtechnicallybetterequippedtotake
    controlofthewater.Potentialinter-statetensionsand
    conicts,especiallyintransboundarybasins,arealsoa
    causeforconcern.
    Asubjectrelevanttothegovernanceofwaterre-
    sourcesandpublicservicesistheefectthatinterna-
    tionalinvestmentagreementsmayhaveonnational
    capacitiestomanagewaterresourcesandtoregu-
    latepublicservices(seeSolanesandJouravlev,2007;
    Bohoslavsky,2010;BohoslavskyandJusto,2011).Asa
    consequenceofglobalization,manypublicservicesare
    providedandwaterrightsheldbycompanieswithin
    foreigninvestmentprotectionsystemsorspecialcon-
    ictresolutionregimes,whichmeansthatexternalju-
    risdictionscaninterveneinlocalmatters.Agreements
    whichover-ridenationallawscanrestrictthepowerof
    governmentstoactinthebestpublicinterestandin
    thatoflocalcommunities.Manycountrieshaveyetto
    assesstheconsequencesthatinternationalinvestment
    agreementsmayhaveontheeconomic,socialand
    environmentalsustainabilityandefciencyofwaterre-
    sourcesutilizationandprovisionofpublicservices.
    1.2.4Equity
    Discussionsrelatingtopricingmechanismsandother
    incentivesarepredominantlymotivatedbytheobjec-
    tivetoenhanceefciencyandencouragesustainable
    waterusageatthesourceofproduction.Increased
    efciencyandproductivityatalocalandnational
    levelwillbecriticalinmeetinggrowingglobalag-
    gregatedemands,givenmountingpressuresonand
    demandforwaterresourcesglobally(predominantly
    throughfoodandagriculturalproducts).Yetitwill
    beimportantforenhancementsinwaterefciency
    andproductivitytobeaccompaniedbyconcomitant
    efortstoreducedemand.Ifsocietyoperateswithin
    ecologicallimits,andrecognizesthelimitedavailabil-
    ityofwaterresourcesgloballyatanyonetime,itwill
    beunviableforallcitizensgloballytoconsumethe
    CHAPTER1
    As is the case with
    most globalization
    processes, virtual
    water trade can
    lead to a further
    marginalization of
    the worlds poorest
    women and men.
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 35 RECOGNIZINGTHECENTRALITYOFWATERANDITSGLOBALDIMENSIONS
    sameamountofwaterasthehighestconsumingindi-
    viduals(andcountries)dotoday.Therefore,efortsto
    tackleexcessivedemandinthedevelopedworldneed
    tocomprisepartofamoreequitabledistributionof
    thebenetsofwatergloballyifincreasesindemand
    withinemergingeconomiesanddevelopingcoun-
    triesaretobeevenpartiallysatisedwithoutheavily
    depletingaquifersorirreversiblydamagingfreshwa-
    terecosystems.Althoughthephysicaldistributionof
    wateracrosstheearth,throughthehydrologicalcycle,
    isbyitsnatureuneven(seeSection3.1andChapter
    15),thewayinwhichthegoods,productsandben-
    etsderivedfromthatwateraredistributedcanbe
    inuencedbypolicyinterventionsincludingglobal
    governanceframeworksandnationalwatergovern-
    ancearrangements.
    Inadditiontoaddressinginequitiesinglobaldemand
    andconsumption,itisalsocriticaltoaddressinequi-
    tiesatthelocalandnationallevelintermsoftheim-
    pactsofandbenetsderivedfromtheglobaltrade
    inwaterresources.Manynationalorregionalwater
    resourcemanagementandallocationmechanisms
    arecurrentlyinsufcienttosustainablyprotectre-
    sourcesandequitablydistributeanywater-derived
    benets.Theproductionandexportofwater-thirsty
    products,suchasriceorcotton,inaridareaswhere
    waterisalreadyunderpressuretomeetlocalneeds,
    canexacerbatelocalandnationalchallengesinclud-
    ingfoodsecurity.Furthermore,thebenetsderived
    fromsuchproductionandexportareoftennotexperi-
    encedbylocalcommunities(e.g.througheitherhealth
    careorinfrastructure).Thevirtualwaterconcepthas
    beenausefultoolinhighlightingtheglobaltransport
    ofwaterthroughtrade;however,newtoolswillneed
    tobedevisedtoenablethedevelopmentofsustain-
    ablegovernancemechanismsandpoliciesthatrebal-
    ancepressuresonwaterresourcesandseektoequita-
    blydistributeanybenetsderivedfromreducinglocal
    availabilityofthispreciousresource.Inthisregard,the
    factthatinequitydiscriminatesagainstwomenand
    children,whomakeupthelargestproportionofthe
    bottombillion,mustalsobetakenintoaccount.
    Onetoolthatpresentsanopportunitytoupholdthe
    importanceoftheequitabledistributionofwaterand
    itsbenetsonanationallevelistheconsensusadop-
    tionbytheUnitedNationsHumanRightsCouncil
    (HRC)inSeptember2010ofaresolutionafrming
    thataccesstowaterandsanitationisahumanright.
    BuildingontheJuly2010Resolution
    7
    bytheUnited
    NationsGeneralAssembly,recognizingaccesstosafe
    waterandsanitationasahumanright,theHRCresolu-
    tionstatesthatthehumanrighttosafedrinkingwater
    andsanitationisderivedfromtherighttoanadequate
    standardoflivingandinextricablyrelatedtotheright
    tothehighestattainablestandardofphysicaland
    mentalhealth,aswellastherighttolifeandhuman
    dignity.
    8
    Thisbestowsuponstatesacertainobliga-
    tiontopromotegovernancearrangementsthatsecure
    drinkingwatersupplyandsanitationservices,andit
    alsoprovidesabasisforfurtherpotentialdiscussion
    anddebateonandequitabledistributionofsocialand
    economicbenetsderivedfromwaterthroughagri-
    culture,energy,healthandotherproductiveactivities.
    However,theseresolutionsfailtoprovideguidance
    onhowprogresscanbeaccuratelymonitored,orhow
    toprovideforcapitalcostsaswellasoperationand
    maintenancecostsoftheinfrastructure(newaswell
    asexpanded)requiredtooperationalizethemwhile
    maintainingafordablepricesforthepoor.
    1.3Recognizingwateringlobalpolicy
    Recognitionofthecentralityofwatertosocio-eco-
    nomicdevelopmentcomesatanopportunetime.
    Therearethreeprocessesunderwaytoestablishglobal
    policiesthatwillbenetfromthis:theMDGs,the
    UNFCCCandtheUNCSD(alsoreferredtocommonly
    asRio+20).
    Thesethreeparticularprocesseshavebeenhighlighted
    becauseoftheirsignicantproleandtheimpactthey
    haveataninternationallevel,andbecausetogether
    theycoveranumberofdimensionsrelatingtoglobal
    watergovernance:humanhealthanddevelopment,
    environmentandclimatechange,andbroadersustain-
    abledevelopmentobjectives.Importantly,allthree
    processesoperateundertheauspicesoftheUnited
    Nations,whichmakesthemparticularlyrelevanttothis
    publication.Itshouldbenoted,however,thatother
    internationalforumssuchastheG8/G20,theWorld
    EconomicForumandtheWorldWaterForumcanalso
    playaninuentialroleintherecognitionofwaters
    centralroleinsocio-economicdevelopment,asexem-
    pliedbytheG8WaterActionPlan(Evian,2003).
    Althoughtheseprocessescanhaveasignicantinu-
    enceonnationalpolicy,theiragendasandnegotiations
    areinfactdrivenbythememberstates.Itistherefore
    uptothediferentmemberstatesthemselvestotake
    leadershipandensurethatwaterisputontheagenda
    oftheseprocesses.
    36
    1.3.1MillenniumDevelopmentGoals
    Itwasappropriateattheturnofthemillenniumto
    shinealightonthealarmingpersistenceofpovertyin
    manypartsoftheworld,andontheshamefulinequal-
    itygloballyinpeoplesaccesstobasicservices.The
    MDGshelpedtoemphasizetheexistenceofaright
    todevelopment,andthattheinternationalcommu-
    nityhasaresponsibilitytoalleviateglobalsufer-
    ing.AlthoughmanyoftheMDGsareunfortunatelyof
    track,thereisnodoubtthattheframeworkofclear
    time-boundgoalsandtargetshasbeenavaluabletool
    inenablingcivilsocietyandthegeneralpublictohold
    governmentstoaccount,andthattheexistenceofa
    relativelyshort-termend-datehashelpedtoacceler-
    ateactioninanumberofareas.
    YettheMDGsalsohavetheirlimitations,notleastin
    theirfailuretorecognizethecross-cuttingnatureof
    waterinrelationtoallMDGs.Forexample,itiswell-
    establishedthatimprovingaccesstowaterimproves
    educationoutcomes(Goal2)andgenderequalityand
    empowermentofwomen(Goal3).Waterisrequiredto
    growfood(Goal1)andimproveallaspectsofecono-
    miestoeradicatepoverty(Goal1).Thesearejustafew
    examplesofthepositiveandcross-sectoralinterac-
    tionsbetweenwaterandotherdiversedevelopment
    imperativesoutlinedintheMDGs.Energyisanother
    essential,cross-cuttingandwaterdependentele-
    mentofsocio-economicdevelopmentthatwasover-
    lookedintheMDGs.
    OneofthetargetsoftheseventhMDG(MDG7),the
    overallobjectiveofwhichistoensureenvironmental
    sustainability,istohalve,by2015,theproportionof
    theworldspopulationwithoutaccesstosafedrink-
    ingwaterandbasicsanitation(Target7c).However,
    ascurrentlyformulated,itfailstoconsideressen-
    tialaspectsofserviceprovision,suchastheirqual-
    ity,modeofprovisionoraccess,andafordability.The
    worldisontracktomeettheaccesstosafedrinking
    watertarget,althoughprogressvariesacrossregions
    andsub-SaharanAfricaandtheArabRegionlagbe-
    hind.Bycontrast,thesanitationtarget(whichisnot
    necessarilylinkedtowater,althoughhygieneis)cur-
    rentlyappearsoutofreach,ashalfthepopulationof
    developingregionscontinuetolackaccesstobasic
    sanitation.
    9

    Inlightofbothprogressandcontinuedchallenges,it
    isimportantthatefortsaremaintainedandintensi-
    edtoachieveMDG7cby2015.Thisposesarealchal-
    lengefortheinternationalcommunity,especiallyas
    thecharacteristicsandcriteriarelatedtotherequire-
    mentstocomplywiththerighttowaterandsanitation,
    asrecognizedbytheHumanRightsCouncil,mayren-
    derthecriteriausedtosettheMDGsobsolete.Todate,
    thiscommunityhashadnobetterwaytomeasureand
    monitorprogressthantousethecriteriaoftheMDGs
    asmonitoredbyWHO/UNICEFsJointMonitoring
    Program(JMP)andWHO/UN-WatersGlobalAnalysis
    andAssessmentofSanitationandDrinking-Water
    It was appropriate at the turn of the millennium
    to shine a light on the alarming persistence
    of poverty in many parts of the world,
    and on the shameful inequality globally in
    peoples access to basic services. The MDGs
    helped to emphasize the existence of a right
    to development, and that the international
    community has a responsibility to alleviate
    global sufering.
    CHAPTER1 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 37 RECOGNIZINGTHECENTRALITYOFWATERANDITSGLOBALDIMENSIONS
    (GLAAS),whicharebasedontheconceptsofaccess
    toimprovedsanitationfacilitiesanddrinkingwa-
    tersources.However,newapproachestomonitoring
    thesegoalsarebeingproducedtomonitorthegoals
    asnowdescribed.
    AnotherlimitationoftheMDGsisthattheyneglect
    thecentralityofwatertotheothergoals.Whilede-
    liveryofdrinkingwaterandsanitationservicesshould
    remainafocusofhumanhealthanddevelopment,
    theimportanceofwaterresourcesandwatergovern-
    anceinachievingthegoalscollectivelyneedsexplicit
    recognition.Itiscriticalthatthedrinkingwaterand
    sanitationissuesdonotdivertattentionfromtheneed
    forefortstoenhanceinstitutionalarrangementsfor
    water,withwaterallocationframeworksthatprioritize
    waterfortheseandotherbasichumanneedsabove
    allotheruses,andwhichencourageefciencyand
    productivityinresourceuseandmanagement.Forex-
    ample,subsidiesforirrigationmightwellbeemployed
    toachieveMDG1toeradicatepovertyandhunger,but
    suchpoliciesoftendiscourageefcientwaterusage
    andthereforeleadtounnecessarylevelsofextraction,
    whichmayultimatelycompromisethewatersource,
    andinturnthesustainabilityofbothMDG7andindeed
    anumberofotherwater-dependentMDGs.
    Theseobservationsarerelevanttowateronanumber
    oflevels,andthemessagesfromthischapterdohave
    relevanceforthewaythattheMDGsareaddressedbe-
    yond2015.First,freshwaterisanitepreciousnatural
    resourcethatisessentialtoallaspectsofdevelopment.
    Second,waternotonlycreatesconnectionsbetween
    thegoals,butisalsoapotentialsourceofconictbe-
    tweenthem.Inmovingbeyond2015,itwillbecritical
    towordeachofthenewgoalsinsuchawayastorec-
    ognizetherole(s)thatwaterplaysinachievingthem.
    1.3.2TheUNFrameworkConventionon
    ClimateChange
    InJune2008,theIPCCWorkingGroupIIreleaseda
    technicalpaperonwaterandclimatechange,which
    statedthattherelationshipbetweenclimatechange
    andfreshwaterresourcesisofprimaryconcerntohu-
    mansocietyandalsohasimplicationsforalllivingspe-
    cies(Batesetal.,2008,p.vii).
    WaterresourcesarereferredtoinArticle4ofthe
    Convention,whileattheUNFCCCs15thConferenceof
    theParties(COP15)inCopenhagenin2009,theim-
    portanceofwaterresourcesmanagementforclimate
    changeadaptationwasreferredtoinafootnoteofthe
    outcomedocument.UndertheUNFCCC,Partieshave
    providedinformationonfreshwater-relatedimpacts
    andvulnerabilitiesintheirnationalcommunications
    10

    andnationaladaptationprogrammesofaction(or
    NAPAs),
    11
    inwhichtheyalsospelloutadaptationand
    developmentpriorities.
    ThenewlycreatedinstitutionsintheCancun
    Agreements,particularlytheCancunAdaptation
    FrameworkandtheAdaptationCommittee,willpro-
    videnewandincreasedopportunitiestoaddress
    theissuesaroundwater.Atthe16thsessionofthe
    ConferenceoftheParties(COP16)inCancun,2010,
    PartiesagreedtoestablishtheCancunAdaptation
    Framework,
    12
    withtheobjectiveofenhancingaction
    onadaptation,includingthroughinternationalcoop-
    erationandcoherentconsiderationofmattersrelat-
    ingtoadaptationundertheConvention.TheCancun
    Agreementmakesspecicreferencetowaterresourc-
    es,freshwater,marineecosystemsandcoastalzones
    whenitreferstoPlanning,prioritizingandimple-
    mentingadaptationactions,includingprojectsand
    programmes.
    13
    AspartoftheCancunAdaptationFramework,devel-
    opingcountrieswillhavetheopportunitytoaddress
    waterissuesintheirNationalAdaptationPlan,which
    willprovidetheopportunitytoidentifytargetedac-
    tions.Inaddition,waterandrelatedextremeevents
    likedroughtsandoodswillbeconsideredinthe
    agreedactivitiesunderthelossanddamagework
    programme.
    14
    Itisurgentforthememberstates(i.e.
    Parties)toensurethatwaterbeaddressedasakeyis-
    sueontheagendaforupcomingnegotiations.
    Inauniquemovewaterwastabledfordiscussion
    onprovisionalagendafortheSubsidiaryBodyfor
    ScienticandTechnologicalAdvice(SBSTA)atits34th
    sessioninJune2011,whichrequestedtheSecretariat
    prepare,beforeits35thsession,atechnicalpaperon
    waterandclimatechangeimpactsandadaptation
    strategies.Itwaseventuallyagreedthatwaterwould
    beaddressedundertheauspicesoftheNairobiWork
    Programmeonimpacts,vulnerabilityandadaptation
    toclimatechange(theNWP),theworkprogramme
    withanobjectivetoassistallParties,inparticular
    developingcountries,includingtheleastdeveloped
    countries(LDCs)andsmallislanddevelopingstates
    (SIDS),toimprovetheirunderstandingandassessment
    ofimpacts,vulnerabilityandadaptationtoclimate
    38
    change,andtomakeinformeddecisionsonpracti-
    caladaptationactionsandmeasurestorespondto
    climatechangeonasoundscientic,technicaland
    socio-economicbasis,takingintoaccountcurrentand
    futureclimatechangeandvariability.Althoughnot
    developedtoexclusivelytargetspecicvulnerable
    sectors,knowledgeproducts,suchastheadaptation
    practicesinterface
    15
    andthelocalcopingstrategiesda-
    tabase,
    16
    provideinformationonadaptationplanning
    andpracticesonvulnerablesectorsatvariouslevelsof
    implementation.
    Severalpartnerorganizationshavepledgedactionsto
    undertakeresearchandassessment;enhancetechnical
    andinstitutionalcapacities;promoteawareness;and
    implementadaptiveactionsontheground.Theseac-
    tionshavecontributedtotheenhancementofunder-
    standingandassessmentofvulnerabilitiesandadapta-
    tionpracticesrelatedtowaterresourcesmanagement.
    RelevantdocumentspreparedundertheNWPtodate
    onwaterincludeasynthesispublicationonclimate
    changeandfreshwaterresourcesUNFCCC,2011)anda
    technicalpaperonwaterandclimatechangeimpacts
    andadaptationstrategies.
    17
    ThemandatefortheNWPrepresentsanimportant
    buildingblockinmainstreamingandintegratingwa-
    termoreefectivelyinthedecision-makingofthe
    Convention.Limitingadiscussiononwaterunderthe
    UNFCCCtoaprogrammeonadaptationmeansthat
    thecross-cuttingandmultifacetednatureofthere-
    sourcewillbehardtofullycaptureunlessacongre-
    gateofPartiesstepsforwardandassumesaleader-
    shippositioninrecognizingtheneedtoaddressthe
    multipleandcross-cuttingelementsofwatermore
    comprehensively.
    Itwillalsobeimportanttoaddresswaterinrela-
    tiontootheremergingandimportantentitiesofthe
    Convention,includingtheAdaptationCommitteeand
    theGreenClimateFund(GCF).Oneofthefunctionsof
    theAdaptationCommitteeistoprovidetechnicalsup-
    portandguidancetotheParties.Suchtechnicalsup-
    portandguidanceshouldarguablyincludetheprovi-
    sionofexpertiseinrelationtowaterandadaptation.
    TheUNFCCCremainstothisdayoneofthemost
    signicantglobalconventionsaddressingsustain-
    abledevelopment.Despitethemultitudeofvaluable
    multilateralenvironmentalagreements(MEAs),the
    UNFCCChascapturedtheimaginationandbuy-inof
    internationalpolicy-makersandthegeneralpublic
    alikemorethananyotherprocessonenvironmentor
    sustainabledevelopmentinthepastdecade.Inthis
    context,ensuringastrongfocusonwaterunderthe
    UNFCCCislikelytoremainahighpriorityforthewater
    community.
    1.3.3BeyondtheUNConferenceonSustainable
    Development
    TheUNCSD2012,orRio+20,willtakeplaceinRiode
    Janeiro20yearsaftertherstRioEarthSummitin
    1992.TheRioSummitsucceededinputtingsustain-
    ablewatermanagementontheglobalagendawith
    Chapter18ofAgenda21(theoutcomedocumentfrom
    theSummit)dedicatedtotheprotectionofthequal-
    ityandsupplyoffreshwaterresources.Thischap-
    terrepresentedasignicantmilestoneinthepromo-
    tionofintegratedapproachestowatermanagement;
    thatis,managingwateracrossitsmultipleusers.
    18
    The
    WorldSummitonSustainableDevelopment(WSSD)
    in2002agreedonaspecictargetforintegratedwa-
    terresourcesmanagement(IWRM),aconceptthatby
    thenhadbecomeanestablishedpartofglobalwater
    discourse.Thetarget(Article26)includedacall,atall
    levels,todevelopIWRMandwaterefciencyplansby
    2005withsupporttodevelopingcountries.IWRMisa
    holisticwatermanagementframeworkthatrecogniz-
    esthemultipleusersofwaterincludingecosystems
    andsotheWSSDscalltoplanforitrepresenteda
    signicantstepintherightdirection.Althoughitsex-
    istencehasledtoanumberofnational-levelinitiatives
    andmonitoringprocesses,progressisfarshortofthe
    ambitionsofthe2005targetandtheprincipleitwas
    tryingtopushforward.Incountrieswherenational
    planshavebeendeveloped,manyarenotbeingimple-
    mented.Moreover,theseplansweremeanttobeadap-
    tiveinotherwords,tobepartofanongoingprocess
    andthusadaptabletochangingconditionsandnew
    uncertainties.
    In2006,ataskforceonwaterresourcesmanagement
    wasestablishedunderUN-Water,whichinitsreview
    forthe13thsessionoftheCommissiononSustainable
    Developmentin2008foundthatonly6outof27de-
    velopedcountriessurveyedhadfullyimplemented
    IWRMplans,andthatonly38%ofthedeveloping
    countriessurveyedhadplanscompletedorunderim-
    plementation.AttherequestoftheUNCommission
    onSustainableDevelopment,UN-Waterconducted
    asimilarglobalsurveyin2011todetermineprogress
    towardssustainablemanagementofwaterresources
    CHAPTER1 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 39 RECOGNIZINGTHECENTRALITYOFWATERANDITSGLOBALDIMENSIONS
    usingintegratedapproachesfortheRio+20confer-
    ence.Preliminaryndingsfromtheanalysisofdata
    fromover125countriesshowthattherehasbeen
    widespreadadoptionofintegratedapproacheswith
    signicantimpactondevelopmentandwatermanage-
    mentpracticesatthecountrylevel.Thesurveyshowed
    that64%ofcountrieshavedevelopedIWRMplans,as
    calledforintheJohannesburgPlanofImplementation
    (JPoI),and34%reportanadvancedstageofimple-
    mentation.However,progressappearstohaveslowed
    inlowandmediumHumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)
    countriessincethesurveyin2008.
    Thoughdebateanddialogueontheappropriateness
    oftheseandothersuchspecictargetswillcontinue
    beyondtheRio+20SummitinJune2012,theconsist-
    entmessagesemergingonwaterwillhelptofocus
    andmobilizethewatercommunityandhopefully
    otherstakeholdersandensurethatwateremerges
    asapriorityissueintheglobaldiscourseonsustain-
    abledevelopment.However,deningandmonitoring
    targetsisadifcultexercise,especiallygivenwaters
    centrality,itscross-cuttingnatureanditswiderangeof
    rolesandbenets.Itmaybeappropriateforthewater
    communitytoworkwithmemberstates,NGOs,vari-
    ousUNagenciesandotherstakeholderstoprovide
    asetofprinciplesrecognizingwaterscentralrolein
    achievingvariousdevelopmentalgoals.Furthermore,
    withoutinstitutionalarrangementsfortheequitable
    optimizationofwatersmanybenetsinthefaceof
    increasinguncertainty,fundingforwaterinfrastruc-
    ture(includingoperationandmaintenance),improved
    capacitytomanagewaterresourcesinanintegrated
    andadaptivefashion,mostdevelopmentgoalsandthe
    greeneconomyitselfwillcontinuetobesignicantly
    compromised.
    UN-Water,followingconsultationswithitsmembers
    andpartners,producedastatement,reectingthecol-
    lectiveopinionofitsmembersonthegreeneconomy,
    asinputintotheRio+20Summit.Thestatementcom-
    prisesUN-Watersrecommendationtotheparticipants
    oftheSummitaswellasalistofpotentialactionsin
    supportofgreeneconomicapproaches.Themain
    messagesofthestatementareinBox1.3.
    Conclusion
    Thischapterhassoughttoexplorethecross-secto-
    ralandglobaldimensionsofwaterlookingbeyond
    theboundariesoftraditionalwatergovernance.The
    mountingdemandforwaterfromadiverserangeof
    socialandeconomicsectors,andthepotentiallyir-
    reversibleecosystemimpactsofunregulateddemand,
    requirestrongwatergovernanceinstitutionsthatfacili-
    tatediscussionanddecisionsonthetargetsofsociety
    andtheallocationofwaterresourcesacrosssectors
    tomeetthem.Equally,watergovernanceframeworks
    atlocal,nationalandregionallevelsmustbecomple-
    mentedbyglobalgovernanceprocesses,frameworks
    andinstitutionsthatcanappropriatelyaddressthe
    globaldimensionsofthebenetsofwaterresources
    1.Successofgreeneconomydependsonsustainable
    managementofwaterresourcesandonsafeandsus-
    tainableprovisioningofwatersupplyandadequate
    sanitationservices.Thisapproachmustbeunder-
    pinnedbytimelymeasurementofeconomicperfor-
    manceintermsofindicatorsofsocialandenviron-
    mentalsustainability.
    2.Theintegratedapproachtowaterresourcesman-
    agement,asdenedinAgenda21,remainsrelevant
    andmustbecentralinstrategiestowardsagreen
    economy.
    3.Thehighestprioritymustbegiventothebottombil-
    lionpeoplewhileaddressinginequitiesinaccessto
    water,whicharecloselylinkedtoenergysecurityas
    wellasfoodsecurity.
    4.Efectivemanagementofwatervariability,ecosystem
    changesandtheresultingimpactsonlivelihoodsina
    changingclimatescenarioarecentraltoaclimate-re-
    silientandrobustgreeneconomy.
    5.Universalcoverageofwatersupplyandsanitationser-
    vicesmustbeacentraldevelopmentgoalinthepost-
    2015period.UN-Waterurgesnationalgovernmentsto
    setrealisticintermediatetargetsandgoals.
    6.Theremustalsobeacommitmenttobuildthefounda-
    tionforawaterresourceefcientgreeneconomy.
    7.Thereisaneedforincreasedwaterresilienceandsus-
    tainabilityofcities,keepinginviewtheglobalchal-
    lengesandurbanizationtrends.
    8.Waterchallengesareaglobalconcernandinterna-
    tionalactionandcooperationatalllevelarerequired
    toaccommodatethemwithinthegreeneconomy.
    9.Greeneconomiescanonlybeachievediftheyaresup-
    portedbygreensocieties.
    BOX 1.3
    UN-WatersrecommendationtoUNCSDand
    potentialactionsinsupportofgreeneconomic
    approaches
    Source: Water in a Green Economy: A Statement by UN-Water for
    the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (UNCSD) 2012
    (Rio+20 Summit), November 2011.
    40
    beyondthebasin.Waterhaslongceasedtobesolely
    alocalissue.Notonlydomanyriverbasinsandaq-
    uiferstranscendnationalboundaries,waterhasalso
    beenglobalizedthroughinternationaltradeinwater-
    dependentproductsandinternationalinvestmentpro-
    tectionagreements,aswellasthroughclimatechange
    impactsonthehydrologicalcycle,whichstandtohave
    potentiallydevastatingafectsincertainlocations.In
    aworldofincreasinguncertaintyregardingthede-
    mandfornitewaterresources,globalwaterusewill
    alsohavetobeconsideredthroughthelensofequity.
    Efciencyandproductivitygainsalonecannotalter
    globalpatternsofunequalsupplyofresourcesand
    consumptionoraccesstobenets.Addressingthese
    cross-sectoralandglobaldimensionsofwaterwillre-
    quirethatallcountriestakeaninterestintheglobal
    forumsdesignedtoaddressandcreatesolutionsto
    impendingresourcechallenges.Thewatercommunity,
    andwatermanagersinparticular,havetherespon-
    sibilityofinformingtheprocess.Implementingthe
    outcomesfromglobalpolicyagreementswillremain
    anationalimperative,butsettingtheframeworkre-
    quiresawideningofthesectoralandspatialhorizons
    ofallthosewhohaveastakeinwatermanagement.
    Globalpolicyagreementsmadewithlocalandnation-
    alprocessesandreectingthepoliticaleconomyand
    institutionalcapacitiesofthecountrieswillassurethe
    overallefectivenessofthesepoliciesatnationaland
    subnationallevels.

    Notes
    1 AtthetimeofpreparingthenaldraftoftheWWDR4,the
    specicpost-UNCSD2012processwasundetermined.
    2 Theconceptofenvironmentalowsrecognizesthatecosystems,
    too,arewaterusers,andthattofunctionproperlyandprovide
    thenecessaryservicestheymustbenetfromwaterallocation
    ofsufcientquantityandquality(seeeFlowNet,n.d.).
    3 ForinformationontheGreenClimateFundsee
    http://unfccc.int/5869.php
    4 Formoreinformationseehttp://www.nilebasin.org/newsite/
    5 TheISARM2010InternationalConferenceTransboundary
    Aquifers:Challengesandnewdirections,whichtookplacein
    Paris,68December2010.
    Seehttp://www.isarm.net/publications/360
    6 ForthepurposesoftheWWDR4,landacquisitionisdened
    asthegainingoftenurerightstolargeareasoflandthrough
    purchase,lease,concessionorothermeans.
    7 Resolution64/292,28July2010.
    8 HumanRightsCouncil,Promotionandprotectionofallhuman
    rights,civilpolitical,economic,socialandculturalrights
    includingtherighttodevelopment,p.15.HumanRightsand
    AccesstoWaterandSanitation,24September2010.
    9 ForfurtheranalysisofprogressseeUN(2010,pp.5860).
    10 Formoreinformationsee
    http://unfccc.int/1095.phpandhttp://unfccc.int/2716.php
    11 Formoreinformationseehttp://unfccc.int/cooperation_
    support/least_developed_countries_portal/items/4751.php
    12 FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1.
    13 Frompage5ofthereportoftheConferenceofthePartieson
    itssixteenthsession,heldinCancunfrom29Novemberto10
    December2010,availableat
    http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf
    14 Formoreinformationseehttp://unfccc.int/6056.php
    15 Theadaptationpracticesinterfaceisavailableat
    http://unfccc.int/4555.php
    16 Thelocalcopingstrategiesdatabaseisavailableat
    http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation.
    17 Seehttp://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_
    search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600006592#beg
    18 TheUnitedNationsConferenceonEnvironmentand
    Development,Agenda21,UN,1992.

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    governance:Whytheriverbasinapproachisnolonger
    sufcientandwhycooperativeactionatgloballevelis
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    and Human Well-Being: Synthesis. WashingtonDC,World
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    Netherlands.http://www.waterfootprint.org/Reports/
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    keynote_presentation_water_event_december_2_nal.pdf
    42
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    Development and Poverty Eradication. Nairobi,UNEP.
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    Forward. Marseilles,WWC.
    CHAPTER1 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    Status, trends and
    challenges

    PART 1
    2.Waterdemand:Whatdrivesconsumption?
    3.Thewaterresource:Variability,vulnerabilityanduncertainty
    4.Beyonddemand:Waterssocialandenvironmentalbenets
    5.Watermanagement,insitutionsandcapacitydevelopment
    6.Fromrawdatatoinformeddecisions
    7.Regionalchallenges,globalimpacts

    Authors DavidCoates,RichardConnor,LizaLeclerc,WalterRast,
    KristinSchumannandMichaelWebber
    CHAPTER 2
    Water demand:
    What drives consumption?
    Shutterstock/JoeGough

    Human demands for water are usually broken down into ve major water use sectors:
    cccarca_ricoorevhichacccorscrhenacri,cvaervihcravas_cLa,
    Lrer_,crvhichhecoariiescvaerosecccrsoniVe,arcrcrccrsoniVe,are
    rarely reported and thus are poorly known;
    rcosr,vhichccVersarexceicra,Lrcacrar_ecirccne_ererair_aciViiesvih
    equally broad impacts on both the quantity and the quality of local water resources and
    the environment;
    onarseenersvhichircocesvaercrcrirlir_archcosehccosessochas
    cooking, cleaning, hygiene and some aspects of sanitation;
    1
    and
    Lccs,sensvhcsevaercenarcsareceernirecL,hevaerrecoirenerscsosair
    or restore the benets for people (services) that societies want ecosystems to supply.
    Water managers and decision-makers concerned with meeting humans basic water-related
    needs are faced with some important questions: How much water are we using now? How
    efciently are we using it? How much will we need 30 years from now? Fifty years? Although
    these questions appear simple, getting the answers right is not as straightforward as it might
    seem.
    Each of the water use sectors is driven by a number of external forces (such as demographic
    changes, technological developments, economic growth and prosperity, changing diets, and
    social and cultural values) which in turn dictate their current and future demands for water.
    Unfortunately, predicting how these drivers will evolve over the next few decades and
    how they will ultimately afect water demand is fraught with a multiplicity of uncertainties.
    Future water demands will depend not only on the amount of food, energy, industrial activity,
    and rural and urban water-related services we will need to meet the requirements of growing
    populations and changing socio-economic landscapes, but also on how efciently we can
    use limited water supplies in meeting these needs.
    This chapter draws principally from the Part 3/Volume 2 challenge area reports Managing
    water along the livestock value chain (Chapter 18), The global nexus of energy and water
    (Chapter 19), Freshwater for industry (Chapter 20), Human settlements (Chapter 17) and
    Ecosystems (Chapter 21) to highlight the current challenges and trends specic to each
    sector, the main drivers and their related uncertainties and risks, and potential response
    options. With the exception of Section 2.1 (Food and Agriculture) for which all content has
    been extracted from the respective challenge area report. Sections of this chapter also
    include complementary material that is not part of the nal Part 3 chapters, which were
    subject to strict length limitations.
    2.1Foodandagriculture
    Thelinkbetweenwaterandfoodisasimpleone.
    Cropsandlivestockneedwatertogrow,andlotsofit.
    Agricultureaccountsfor70%ofallwaterwithdrawn
    bytheagricultural,municipalandindustrial(including
    energy)sectors.
    Wateristhekeytofoodsecurity.Globally,thereis
    enoughwateravailableforourfutureneeds,butthis
    worldpicturehideslargeareasofabsolutewaterscar-
    citywhichafectsbillionsofpeople,manyofwhomare
    pooranddisadvantaged.Majorchangesinpolicyand
    management,acrosstheentireagriculturalproduction
    chain,areneededtoensurebestuseofavailablewater
    resourcesinmeetinggrowingdemandsforfoodand
    otheragriculturalproducts.
    2.1.1Wateruseinagriculture
    Theagriculturalsectorasawholehasalargewater
    footprintwhencomparedtoothersectors,particularly
    duringtheproductionphase.Theboomingdemandfor
    livestockproductsinparticularisincreasingthedemand
    forwater,notjustduringproduction,butalsoatevery
    stagealongthelivestockvaluechains.Itisalsoafect-
    ingwaterquality,whichinturnreducesavailability.
    Theannualglobalagriculturalwaterconsumptionin-
    cludescropwaterconsumptionforfood,breand
    feedproduction(transpiration),plusevaporationloss-
    esfromthesoilandfromopenwaterassociatedwith
    agriculture,suchasriceelds,irrigationcanalsand
    reservoirs.Onlyabout20%ofthetotal7,130km
    3
    of
    agriculturesannualwaterconsumptionisbluewater
    thatis,waterfromrivers,streams,lakesandground-
    waterforirrigationpurposes.Althoughirrigationis
    onlyamodestpartofagriculturalwaterconsumption,
    itplaysacrucialrole,accountingformorethan40%of
    theworldsproductiononlessthan20%oftheculti-
    vatedland.
    Concernsaboutfoodinsecurityaregrowingacross
    theglobe,butpeoplegenerallyhavelittleornoap-
    preciationofthedependencyoffoodproduction
    onwater.Thereislittlerecognitionthat70%ofthe
    worldsfreshwaterwithdrawalsarealreadycommit-
    tedtoirrigatedagriculture(Figure2.1)andthatmore
    waterwillbeneededinordertomeetincreasing
    demandsforfoodandenergy(biofuels).Relatively
    speaking,withdrawalsforagriculturetendtode-
    creasewithincreasinglevelsofdevelopment.
    However,inmanycountries,notjustintheleastde-
    velopedcountries(LDCs),wateravailabilityforagri-
    cultureisalreadylimitedanduncertain,andthisisset
    toworsen.Agriculturalwaterwithdrawalaccountsfor
    44%oftotalwaterwithdrawalinOECDcountries,but
    thisrisestomorethan60%withintheeightOECD
    countriesthatrelyheavilyonirrigatedagriculture.In
    theBRICcountries(Brazil,RussianFederation,India
    andChina),
    2
    agricultureaccountsfor74%ofwater
    withdrawals,butthisrangesfromalow20%inthe
    RussianFederationto87%inIndia.InLDCsthegure
    ismorethan90%(FAO,2011c).
    Globally,irrigatedcropyieldsareabout2.7timesthose
    ofrainfedfarming,henceirrigationwillcontinueto
    playanimportantroleinfoodproduction.Thearea
    equippedforirrigationincreasedfrom170millionhain
    1970to304millionhain2008.Thereisstillpotential
    forexpansion,particularlyinsub-SaharanAfricaand
    SouthernAmerica,inplaceswherethereissufcient
    wateravailable.Pathwaystoimproveproductivityand
    bridgetheyieldgapinirrigationincludeincreasingthe
    quantity,reliabilityandtimingofwaterservices;in-
    creasingthebenecialuseofwaterwithdrawnforirri-
    gation;andincreasingagronomicoreconomicproduc-
    tivitysothatmoreoutputisobtainedperunitofwater
    consumed(FAO,2011a).
    Althoughthereisstillpotentialtoincreasethecropped
    area,some57millionha(0.6%)offarmlandarelost
    annuallybecauseofacceleratinglanddegradation
    (seeSection4.5andChapter28),andurbanization
    (seeSection2.4andChapter17),whichtakesagricul-
    turallandoutofproductionandreducesthenumber
    offarmsasmorepeoplemovetothecities.Increasing
    populationmeansthattheamountofcultivatedland
    perpersonisalsodecliningsharply:from0.4hain1961
    to0.2hain2005.
    2.1.2Expectedgrowthindemand
    Theworldpopulationispredictedtogrowfrom6.9bil-
    lionin2010to8.3billionin2030and9.1billionin2050
    (UNDESA,2009).By2030,fooddemandispredicted
    toincreaseby50%(70%by2050)(Bruinsma,2009),
    whileenergydemandfromhydropowerandotherre-
    newableenergyresourceswillriseby60%(WWAP,
    2009)(seeSection2.2andChapter19).Theseissues
    areinterconnectedincreasingagriculturaloutput,for
    example,willsubstantiallyincreasebothwaterand
    energyconsumption,leadingtoincreasedcompetition
    forwaterbetweenthediferentwater-usingsectors.
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES 46 CHAPTER2
    WWDR4 47 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    Inessence,themainchallengefacingtheagricultural
    sectorisnotsomuchgrowing70%morefoodin40
    years,butmaking70%morefoodavailableonthe
    plate.Reducinglossesinstorageandalongthevalue
    chainmaygoalongwaytowardsofsettingtheneed
    formoreproduction.
    2.1.3Agriculturesimpactsonwaterandecosystems
    Thewaythatwaterismanagedinagriculturehas
    causedwide-scalechangesinecosystemsandunder-
    minedtheprovisionofawiderangeofecosystemser-
    vices.Watermanagementforagriculturehaschanged
    thephysicalandchemicalcharacteristicsoffreshwater
    andcoastalwetlandsandthequalityandquantityof
    water,aswellasdirectandindirectbiologicalchanges
    interrestrialecosystems.Theexternalcostofthedam-
    agetopeopleandecosystems,andclean-upprocesses,
    fromtheagriculturalsectorissignicant.IntheUnited
    StatesofAmerica(USA),forinstance,theestimated
    costisUS$920billionperyear(citedinGallowayet
    al.,2007).
    Predictingfuturewaterdemandforagricultureis
    fraughtwithuncertainty.Itispartiallyinuencedby
    demandforfood,whichinturndependspartlyonthe
    numberofpeopleneedingtobefed,andpartlyon
    whatandhowmuchtheyeat.Thisiscomplicatedby,
    amongotherfactors,uncertaintiesinseasonalclimatic
    variations,efciencyofagricultureproductionprocess-
    es,croptypesandyields.
    Althoughprojectionsvaryconsiderably,basedondif-
    ferentscenarioassumptionsandmethodologies,fu-
    tureglobalagriculturalwaterconsumption(including
    bothrainfedandirrigatedagriculture)isestimatedto
    increasebyabout19%to8,515km
    3
    peryearin2050
    (ComprehensiveAssessmentofWaterManagement
    inAgriculture,2007).TheFoodandAgriculture
    OrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)estimates
    an11%increaseinirrigationwaterconsumptionfrom
    2008to2050.Thisisexpectedtoincreasebyabout
    5%thepresentwaterwithdrawalforirrigationof2,740
    km
    3
    .Althoughthisseemsamodestincrease,much
    ofitwilloccurinregionsalreadysuferingfromwater
    scarcity(FAO,2011a).
    FIGURE 2.1
    Waterwithdrawalbysectorbyregion(2005)
    Source: FAO AQUASTAT (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm, accessed in 2011).
    100
    90
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    0
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    Waterwithdrawalbysector(%)
    pesticides,followedbycountriesinEurope,especially
    thoseofWesternEurope.Intermsofuseperunitarea
    ofcultivatedarea,Japanisthemostintensiveuserof
    pesticides.Over-abstractionofrenewablegroundwa-
    terresourcesandabstractionoffossilgroundwater
    reservesinaridNorthAfricaandtheArabianPeninsula,
    drivenprimarilybytheagriculturalsector,areexerting
    irreconcilablepressuresonwaterresources.
    2.1.4Pressuresfrompopulationgrowthand
    changingdiets
    Thegrowingpopulation(9.1billionby2050,asper
    above)isincreasingthepressuresonlandandwa-
    ter.Atthesametime,economicgrowthandindividual
    wealthareshiftingdietsfrompredominantlystarch-
    basedtomeatanddairy,whichrequiremorewater.
    Producing1kgrice,forexample,requiresabout
    3,500Lwater,1kgbeefsome15,000L,andacupof
    cofeeabout140L(HoekstraandChapagain,2008).
    Thisdietaryshiftisthegreatesttoimpactonwater
    consumptionoverthepast30years,andislikelyto
    continuewellintothemiddleofthetwenty-rstcen-
    tury(FAO,2006).
    Land-usechangesasaresultofagriculturehavepro-
    ducedawiderangeofimpactsonwaterquantityand
    quality(Scanlonetal.,2007).Wetlandsinparticu-
    larhavebeenafected.Poorwaterqualityoriginating
    fromagriculturalpollutionismostsevereinwetlands
    inEurope,LatinAmericaandAsia(Figure2.2).The
    statusofspeciesinfreshwaterandcoastalwetlands
    hasbeendeterioratingfasterthanthoseofothereco-
    systems(MA,2005a).
    Difusepollutionfromagriculturallandcontinuesto
    beofcriticalconcernthroughoutmanyoftheworlds
    riverbasins(seeSections3.3and4.3).Eutrophication
    fromagriculturalrunofranksamongthetoppollution
    problemsinCanada,theUSA,andAsiaandthePacic.
    Australia,India,Pakistanandmanypartsofthearid
    MiddleEastfaceincreasingsalinizationasaresultof
    poorirrigationpractices(MA,2005).
    Nitrateisthemostcommonchemicalcontaminantin
    theworldsgroundwaterresources.Accordingtoavail-
    abledatainFAOAQUASTAT(2011c),theUSAiscur-
    rentlythecountryconsumingthelargestamountof
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES 48 CHAPTER2
    FIGURE 2.2
    Wetlandswaterqualitystatechangesbycontinent
    Source: FAO (2008, p. 50).
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    0
    %
    Africa Asia Europe Neotropics NorthAmerica Oceania
    Eutrophication
    Averageeutrophicationandquality Averageagriculturalpollution
    Agriculturalpollution Waterqualitylowered
    49 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    Theamountofwaterusedtogrowfeedandfodderis
    muchmoresignicantinvolumeterms.Thisamount
    dependsnotjustonthenumberandkindsofanimals
    andamountoffoodtheyeat,butalsowherethefood
    isgrown.Itisestimatedthatlivestockconsumeabout
    2,0003,000km
    3
    ofwaterannuallyasmuchas
    45%oftheglobalwaterembeddedinfoodproducts
    (ComprehensiveAssessmentofWaterManagement
    inAgriculture,2007;ZimmerandRenault,n.d.)al-
    thoughtheseestimatesarequiteimprecise.Rainfed
    grasslandsandnon-cultivatedgrazedfoddercrops
    consumemostofthiswaterandthisisgenerally
    thoughttobeoflittleenvironmentalvalue.Indeed,if
    theselandswerenotusedforgrazingtherewouldbe
    verylittlewatersavingorpotentialforalternativeuse.
    Irrigationwatervolumesaremuchsmaller,butplay
    animportantroleinproducingfeed,fodderandgraz-
    ingforlivestock,andhaveamuchgreateropportunity
    costthanrainfedcropping.
    Duringmeatprocessing,theslaughterhouseisthesec-
    ondlargestuserofwaterinthemeat-processingvalue
    chain(aftertheproductionphase),andapotentially
    signicantpointsourceofpollutiontolocalecosys-
    temsandcommunities.Butthemostseriousaspectof
    foodconsumptionisfoodwastage.Thisisparticularly
    thecaseinindustrializedcountrieswherefoodiswast-
    edbecausetoomuchperishablefoodisproducedand
    notsold,productsdeteriorateinstorage,andfoodis
    boughtandnotconsumedandhencethrownaway.All
    thisaddsuptobothasignicantwasteoffood,and
    alsoasignicantwasteofthewaterusedtoproduceit
    (Lundqvist,2010).
    2.1.5Otherpressuresonwaterresourcesinthe
    agriculturesector
    Climate change
    Agriculturecontributestoclimatechangethroughits
    shareofGHGemissions,whichinturnafecttheplan-
    etswatercycle,addinganotherlayerofuncertainties
    andriskstofoodproduction.Climatechangeimpacts
    aremainlyexperiencedthroughthewaterregime,in
    theformofmoresevereandfrequentdroughtsand
    oods,withanticipatedefectsontheavailabilityof
    waterresourcesthroughchangesinrainfalldistribu-
    tion,soilmoisture,glacierandice/snowmelt,andriver
    andgroundwaterows.Theseclimatechange-induced
    hydrologicalchangesarelikelytoafectboththeex-
    tentandproductivityofirrigatedandrainfedagricul-
    tureworldwide,henceadaptationstrategieswillfocus
    onminimizingtheoverallproductionrisk(FAO,2011b).
    Demand for livestock products is closely linked to
    economic growth
    Theworldfoodeconomyisbeingincreasinglydriven
    bytheshiftindietsandfood-consumptionpatterns
    towardslivestockproducts(FAO,2006).In2008,
    3,350millionhawereusedaspermanentmeadows
    andforpasturemorethantwicetheareausedfor
    arablecroppingandpermanentcrops.Livestockpro-
    videsnotjustmeat,butalsodairyproducts,eggs,
    wool,hidesandsoon.Thelivestocksectorisnow
    changingatanunprecedentedpaceasdemand
    forfoodderivedfromanimalshasboomedinthe
    worldsmostrapidlygrowingeconomies(Steinfeldet
    al.,2006).Livestockalreadycontributes40%ofthe
    globalvalueofagriculturaloutput.Itconstitutesone
    ofthemostdynamicpartsoftheagriculturalecono-
    my,drivenbypopulationgrowth,risingafuenceand
    urbanization.
    Buttheincreasingdemandforlivestockproductsis
    beingmatchedbyconcernsaboutitsimpactsonthe
    environment.Theexpansionoflandforlivestockhas
    ledtodeforestationinsomecountries(e.g.Brazil)and
    intensivelivestockproduction(mainlyinOECDcoun-
    tries)isalreadyamajorsourceofpollution.Livestock
    contributeslessthan2%ofglobalgrossdomestic
    product(GDP),yetproducessome18%ofgreen-
    housegases(GHGs)(Steinfeldetal.,2006b).Hence
    criticsarguethatthedis-benetsfromlivestockfar
    outweighthebenets,butothersarguethatthisseri-
    ouslyunderestimatestheeconomicandsocialimpor-
    tanceoflivestock,particularlyinlow-incomecountries.
    Regardlessofthebalanceofthesearguments,thein-
    creasingdemandforlivestockseemslikelytocontinue
    (FAO,2006).Thismeansthatresource-useefciency
    inlivestockproductionisnowanurgentpriority,and
    thisincludesthemanagementofwater.
    Water pollution from livestock production and
    processing
    Duringtheproductionphase,livestockrequireswater
    fordrinking,coolingandcleaning,buttheamounts
    requireddiferaccordingtotheanimal,themethodof
    rearingandthelocation.Extensivelivestocksystems
    canincreasewaterdemandbecauseoftheadditional
    efortrequiredasanimalssearchforfeed.Intensiveor
    industrializedsystems,however,requireadditionalser-
    vicewaterforcoolingandcleaningfacilities.Globally,
    theannualdrinkingwaterrequirementforlivestock
    isabout16km
    3
    andservicesrequireanother6.5km
    3

    (Steinfeldetal.,2006).
    50
    ItispredictedthatSouthAsiaandSouthernAfricaare
    predictedwillbethemostvulnerableregionstocli-
    matechange-relatedfoodshortagesby2030(Lobell
    etal.,2008).Theirpopulationsarefood-insecurebe-
    causetheyarehighlydependentongrowingcropsin
    ecosystemsthatdisplayhighvulnerabilityandconse-
    quencestoclimatechangeprojectionsoftemperature
    andprecipitationchanges.
    Food, economy and the energy crisis
    Thefoodpricecrisis,followedshortlybythe2009eco-
    nomiccrisis,hashadtragicconsequencesforworld
    hunger.Foodpricesaresignicantlyhigherthanthey
    werein2006.Althoughthefactorswhichledtothis
    increaseinfoodpriceswerethoughttobetemporary
    suchasdroughtinwheat-producingregions,lowfood
    stocksandsoaringoilbarrelpricesthatdroveupthe
    priceoffertilizersfoodpricesin2010hadnotyet
    returnedtotheirpre-2006levels.Poorwomenshoul-
    derthebruntofeconomiccrisesandwomenwithless
    educationtendtoincreasetheirworkparticipation
    moreintimesofcrisisinalmosteveryregionofthe
    world(FAO,2009).
    Thedemandforbiofuelshasalsosoaredinrecentyears.
    SubstantialamountsofmaizeintheUSA,wheatand
    rapeseedintheEuropeanUnion(EU),oilpalminparts
    ofsub-SaharanAfricaandSouthandSouth-EastAsia,
    andsugarinBrazil,arebeingraisedforethanoland
    biodieselproduction.In2007,biofuelproductionwas
    dominatedbyBrazil,theUSA,andtoalesserextent,the
    EU.Biomassandwasterepresented10%oftheworlds
    primaryenergydemandin2005,morethannuclear
    (6%)andhydro(2%)combined(IEA,2007).
    Ifaprojectedbio-energysupplyof6,00012,000mil-
    liontonnesofoilequivalentweretobereachedin
    2050,
    3
    thiswouldrequireone-fthoftheworldsag-
    riculturalland(IEA,2006).Biofuelsarealsowaterin-
    tensiveandcanaddtothestrainsonlocalhydrological
    systemsandGHGemissions.
    Land acquisitions and land-use changes
    Therelativelyrecentphenomenonoflarge-scale,inter-
    nationallandacquisitionsisleadingtoland-usechang-
    es,whichinturnimpactswateruse.Since20072008,
    sovereignfundsandinvestmentcompaniesofsome
    OECDandBRICScountrieshaveboughtorleased
    largetractsoffarmlandacrossAfrica,AsiaandLatin
    Americainordertosecuretheirfuelandfoodrequire-
    ments.Thiswastriggeredinpartbythefuelcrisisand
    thedemandforbiofuelstoreplacepetroleum-based
    products,asexplainedingreaterdetailinChapter7
    (Box7.14).Theproblemisthatinmoststateswhere
    suchcontractsarebeingcompleted,waterrightsare
    oftennotcodiedinmodernlaw,butarebasedon
    localtraditions,weakandoutdatedwaterlegislation
    ornon-existentinanyformallegalterms(Mannand
    Smaller,2010).
    2.1.6Wasteinthefoodchain
    Whenwaterisscarceitisnolongerenoughjustto
    considertheamountofwaterneededtogrowfood
    (Lundqvist,FraitureandMolden,2008).Theway
    waterisusedalongtheentirevaluechainmustbe
    examined,fromproductiontoconsumptionandbe-
    yond.Thisisparticularlytrueforthemoreindustrial-
    izedcountries,andalsotosomeextentinthetowns
    andcitiesofBRICScountries,wherefoodincreas-
    inglycomesfrommanydiferentsources,oftenover
    longdistances,andinsomecasesfrommanydifer-
    entcountries.Foodsecurityisthreatenedbythepo-
    tentialforwasteasagriculturalproductsmovealong
    extensivevaluechainsandpassthroughmanyhands
    farmers,transporters,storekeepers,foodproces-
    sors,shopkeepersandconsumersasittravelsfrom
    eldtofork.Foodcanbewastedateverystepalong
    thevaluechain,whichmeansthatthewaterusedto
    produceitisalsowasted.
    Watermanagementhastraditionallybeentheresponsi-
    bilityofgovernments,butmajorinternationalfoodcom-
    paniesarebeginningtorealizetheimportanceofwater
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    Food security is
    threatened by the
    potential for waste as
    agricultural products
    move along extensive
    value chains and pass
    through many hands ...
    from eld to fork.
    51 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    increaseuserownershipandparticipation.Newar-
    rangementsarerequiredforsafeguardingaccessto
    waterforpooranddisadvantagedgroups,particularly
    women,andensuringtheyhavelong-termlandand
    watersecurity.
    A focus on the value chain
    Improvementswillbeneededallalongtheagricultural
    valuechains.Earlygainsincludeopportunitiestore-
    ducepost-harvestcroplossesinLDCsandfoodwast-
    ageinthehigherincomecountries,hencesavingthe
    waterembeddedinthem.Inthemediumterm,inno-
    vationsinclimate-smartcroppingarepossible.Inthe
    longerterm,energy-smartconversionoffeedandfod-
    derforlivestockisalsopossible.Waterrecyclingatall
    stagesofthevaluechaincanhelpsecureenvironmen-
    talwaterrequirementswhenreuseoftreatedwateris
    notculturallyacceptableforotheruses.
    Managing risk creatively
    Reducingvulnerabilitytodroughtwillrequireinvest-
    mentinbothconstructedandgreeninfrastructureto
    improvewatermeasurementandcontroland,where
    appropriate,increasesurfacewaterandgroundwater
    storageinconstructedreservoirsandinnaturalstorage
    bothinwetlandsandinthesoil.Mostbenetisexpect-
    edtocomefromexistingwatermanagementtechnolo-
    giesthroughadaptationtonewsituations.Designfor
    management,promotedinthe1980stoensureinfra-
    structuredesigntookaccountofwhowouldmanageit
    andhowitwouldbemanaged,remainshighlyrelevant
    todayandimportantforfuturewatermanagement.
    Virtual water trade
    Virtualwatermayplayanincreasingroleaswater-rich
    countriesexportwaterembeddedinfoodtowater-
    shortcountriesthatnditincreasinglydifculttogrow
    sufcientstaplefoodcrops.Buttheaqua-politicsof
    exporting/importingfoodversusself-sufciencywill
    notbeeasytoresolve.Food-producingcountriesmay
    notwishtoexportcropswhenfoodsecurityisthreat-
    ened;lowerincomeandLDCsmayneedtocontinue
    over-exploitingwaterresourcestofeedtheirpopula-
    tionstoavoidmarket-imposedhighprices.Subsidies
    onfoodandotherproductscandistortmarketswith
    possiblenegativeimplicationsontheuseofthevirtual
    waternotion.
    Implementing water smart production
    Atwin-trackapproachisneededthatmakesbestuse
    ofavailablewater:demand-managementoptionsthat
    totheirbusinesses,particularlywheretheirvalue
    chainsaresituatedinwater-shortcountries.Although
    theirconcernmayhavemoretodowithcustomer
    perceptionsandsecurityofprots,usingwaterwith
    greatercarecanprovidepotentialknock-onbenets
    forall.Initiativestopromotemoreefcientuseofwa-
    teralongthevaluechaininclude,forexample,theCEO
    WaterMandateandtheAllianceforWaterStewardship.
    2.1.7Water-smartfoodproduction
    Theworldisclearlyenteringaneweraofwaterman-
    agementcharacterizedbyincreasingrecognitionof
    thelinksbetweenwaterandotherresourcesandthe
    socio-economicsofpoorpost-harvestmanagement
    andfoodwastealongthevaluechain.
    The role of technology
    Inhigherincomecountries,scienceandtechnology
    havelongbeenmajordriversofglobalprosperity.This
    willundoubtedlycontinueinthefuture.Foodproduc-
    tionwillneedtobemuchgreenerandmoresustain-
    abletoensurethatitdoesnotaddtotheburdenof
    climatechangeandecosystemdeterioration.
    Innovativetechnologieswillbeneededthatcanim-
    provecropyieldsanddroughttolerance;produce
    smarterwaysofusingfertilizerandwater;improve
    cropprotectionthroughnewpesticidesandnon-
    chemicalapproaches;reducepost-harvestlosses;and
    createmoresustainablelivestockandmarineproduc-
    tion.Industrializedcountriesarewellplacedtotake
    advantageofthesetechnologies,butalsohavethere-
    sponsibilitytoensurethatLDCshaveopportunitiesto
    accessthemonequitableornon-discriminatoryterms.
    Human capacities and institutions are assets
    AgriculturaldevelopmentinLDCsliesmainlyinthe
    handsofsmallholders,alargemajorityofwhomare
    women.Watertechnologiesappropriatetotheirneeds
    willplayacrucialroleinmeetingthefoodsecuritychal-
    lenge.However,inmanyLDCswomenhaveonlylimited
    accesstoawiderangeofphysicalassetsandlackthe
    skillstodeploythem.Multiplewater-useschemescan
    provideopportunitiesforwomentoextendtheirinu-
    enceoverwaterallocationandmanagement.
    Majorchangesinpolicyandmanagementwillbe
    neededtomakebestpossibleuseofavailablewater
    resources.Newinstitutionalarrangementsareneeded
    thatcentralizetheresponsibilityforwaterregulation,
    yetdecentralizewatermanagementresponsibilityand
    52
    Thechallengeofmanagingthisnexusisincreasedby
    externaldrivers,whoseimpactcanonlybeestimated
    butneverwhollyplannedfor.Climatechangeisacen-
    tralexternaldriverthatafectsbothwaterandenergy
    directly;mitigationmeasuresareconcentratedaround
    thereductionofenergyconsumptionandcarbon
    emissions,whileadaptationmeansplanningforin-
    creasinghydrologicalvariabilityandextremeweather
    events,includingoods,droughtsandstorms.Further
    externalpressuresarecreatedthroughdemographic
    development,bothfrompopulationincreaseandmi-
    gration,aswellasfromincreasedeconomicactivity
    andlivingstandards,whichwillgenerateasurgeof
    energyconsumption,particularlyinnon-OECDcoun-
    tries.Lastly,policychoicesbygovernmentsoftenex-
    acerbatethestrainsbypursuingmorewater-intensive
    energyandmoreenergy-intensivewater.
    2.2.1Waterforenergy
    Trends and forecasts in the demand for diferent types
    of energy
    EIA(2010)estimatesthatglobalenergyconsumptionwill
    increasebyaround49%from2007to2035(Figure2.3).
    Thisincreaseinenergyconsumptionwillbehigherin
    non-OECDcountries(84%)thaninOECDcountries(14%),
    withtheprimarydriverbeingtheexpectedgrowthin
    GDPandtheassociatedincreasedeconomicactivity.
    Energysourcesareoftendividedintoprimaryand
    secondaryenergies.Primaryenergiesareextracted,
    capturedorcultivated,andincludecrudeoil,natural
    increaseproductivity(morecropperdrop)andsup-
    plymanagementthatmakesmorewateravailable
    throughwaterstoragetocopewithseasonalityand
    increasinglyunpredictablerainfall.
    Majorinvestmentinagriculturalwatermanagement
    willbeneededandthepresent-daynationalpriorities
    insomecountriesgivecauseforseriousconcern.In
    2010,itwasestimatedthatonlyUS$10billionwasin-
    vestedgloballyinirrigationsystems,asurprisinglylow
    guregiventheimportanceofwaterfortheagricul-
    turalsector(incomparison,theglobalmarketvolume
    forbottledwaterinthesameyearwasUS$59billion)
    (Wildetal.,2010).Surelyitistimefortheworldto
    wakeuptothefactthatagricultureisamajor,valid
    consumerofwater,andthatinvestmentisessential
    forthefutureoffoodandwatersecurity.Whenwater
    isscarcethereisaglobalresponsibilitytousewater
    wisely,efcientlyandproductively.Agricultureneeds
    tobemuchmorewater-smartandmustbegiventhe
    rightsignalsandincentivestomakethishappen.
    2.2Energy
    Energyandwaterareintricatelyconnected.Although
    thereexistdiferentsourcesofenergyandelectricity,
    allrequirewaterforvariousproductionprocesses,in-
    cludingextractionofrawmaterials,coolinginthermal
    processes,cleaningmaterials,cultivationofcropsfor
    biofuels,andpoweringturbines.Conversely,energy
    isrequiredtomakewaterresourcesavailableforhu-
    manuseandconsumptionthroughpumping,trans-
    portation,treatment,desalinationandirrigation.This
    double-sidedinterdependencyofbothresourceshas
    beencoinedthewater-energynexus,andintroduces
    keycross-sectoralvulnerabilities.
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    FIGURE 2.3
    Worldmarketedenergyconsumption,20072035
    Source: EIA (2010, p. 1).
    0
    100
    200
    300
    400
    500
    600
    700
    800
    2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
    Non-OECD
    Q
    u
    a
    d
    r
    i
    l
    l
    i
    o
    n

    B
    r
    i
    t
    i
    s
    h

    T
    h
    e
    r
    m
    a
    l

    U
    n
    i
    t
    s
    (
    B
    T
    U
    )
    OECD
    All forms of energy
    require water at
    some stage of their
    life cycle, which
    includes production,
    conversion, distribution
    and use.
    53 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    withhydropowergrowinginoverallproduction,but
    lesssignicantlyinpercentagethanwind,solarandPV
    (EIA,2010;WWF,2011).
    Water requirements for primary energy
    Allformsofenergyrequirewateratsomestageof
    theirlifecycle,whichincludesproduction,conver-
    sion,distributionanduse.Thischapterfocuseson
    waterquantityrequirements,insteadofwaterqual-
    ityimpacts.Thewaterrequirementsforfuelproduc-
    tionforcoal,naturalgasanduranium,whilenon-trivial,
    aremuchsmallerthanthewaterrequirementsattheir
    usewithinpowerplants,andarethereforeconsid-
    erednegligiblebycomparison.Bycontrast,thewater
    requirementstoproducecoal,naturalgasandpetro-
    leumfortransportationapplicationsaresignicantby
    comparison(becausetransportvehicleshavenowater
    requirementson-board.)Eachfuelandtechnologyhas
    aslightlydiferentsetofrequirements.
    Crude oil
    Crudeoiliscurrentlythelargestprimaryenergysource
    globally.Itsproductionrequireswateratvariousstages,
    includingdrilling,pumping,renementandtreatment.
    Theaveragewateruseisestimatedtobe1.058m
    3
    per
    GJ(Gerbens-Leenes,etal.,2008).Unconventionaloil
    production,whichisprojectedtoincreaseinNorth,
    gas,coal,biomassandgeothermalheat.Secondary
    energiesundergoatransformationprocessintopetro-
    leumproductsandelectricitygeneratedfromther-
    malprocesses(coal,fossilfuels,geothermal,nuclear)
    andhydropower,solar/photovoltaic(PV)andwind
    (vergaard,2008).
    Withregardtoprimaryenergycarriers,Figure2.4
    showsthatfuelproductionisexpectedtoincreaseun-
    til2035.Whiletheincreaseincrudeoilproductionis
    expectedtobesmall,signicantincreasesareexpect-
    edintheproductionofbiofuels,coalandnaturalgas.
    Inparticular,theproductionofbiofuelshassignicant
    waterimpactsbecauseofthewaterrequirementsof
    cropsforgrowthduringphotosynthesis,alongwith
    otherwaterusesatthebiorenery.
    Similarly,therearegreatdisparitiesinthe2035trends
    forelectricityproduction.Figure2.5showsthatno
    increasescanbeexpectedinelectricityfromliquid
    fossilfuels,andverylittlefromnuclearproduction.
    Notably,theglobalnuclearpolicyconsequencesofthe
    nuclearaccidentinFukushima,Japan,inMarch2011
    mightfurtherinhibitfuturenucleargeneration.The
    productionofelectricityfromcoal,renewableenergy
    andnaturalgas,however,isexpectedtoincreasesig-
    nicantly.Electricityproductionfromrenewablesis
    expectedtomorethandoubleuntil2035(Figure2.4),
    FIGURE 2.4
    Historicalworldfuelproductionfrom1990to2007
    withprojectionsto2035
    FIGURE 2.5
    Projectionsforworldnetelectricitygeneration,
    20072035
    Source: Data from EIA (2010).
    Note: for this gure, fossil fuels refers to liquids such as petroleum
    and liqueed gases. Coal and natural gas are considered separately.
    Source: Data from EIA (2010).
    0
    5,000
    10,000
    15,000
    20,000
    25,000
    30,000
    35,000
    40,000
    2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
    Fossil fuels Coal Natural gas
    Renewables Nuclear
    B
    i
    l
    l
    i
    o
    n

    m
    e
    g
    a
    w
    a
    t
    t
    h
    o
    u
    r
    s

    (
    M
    W
    h
    )
    0
    100
    200
    300
    400
    500
    600
    700
    800
    1990 2000 2007 2015 2025 2035
    Crude Oil Natural gas Coal
    Biofuels Nuclear
    M
    i
    l
    l
    i
    o
    n

    b
    a
    r
    r
    e
    l
    s

    p
    e
    r

    d
    a
    y
    54
    orgasesandrunningthemthroughsteamorgas
    turbinestodriveelectricalgenerators.Afterpassing
    throughturbines,thewaterinthesteamcycleisgen-
    erallycooled(viawatercoolingloops)inacondenser
    andrecycled.Theseprocessescurrentlyaccountfor
    78%ofworldelectricityproduction(EIA,2010)and
    outputisexpectedtogrow,implyingthatevenmore
    watercoolingwillbeneeded.
    Twotypesofwater-coolingtechnologiesaswellasdry
    coolingarecurrentlyused(WEF,2011).Once-through
    coolingwithdrawsrelativelylargequantitiesofwater
    thatarereturnedtothewaterbodydownstreamafter
    passingthroughthecondenser.Whilesomewateris
    losttoevaporation(WEC,2010),littlewaterisactually
    consumed.However,signicantdownstreamstresses
    onaquaticlifecanoccurwhenthereturnedwaterhas
    asignicantlyhighertemperaturethantheenviron-
    ment,orifaquaticlifeisentrainedintothecooling
    systems(DOE,2006).Closedloopsystemsre-circulate
    thecoolingwaterinthecondenserandejectexcess
    heatthroughcoolingtowersorponds(WEF,2011).
    Theseclosedsystemswithdraw95%lesswaterthan
    once-throughtechnologies,butallofthiswaterislost
    toevaporationsuchthatnowaterisreturneddirectly
    tothenaturalsystem.Drycoolingsystemsdonotre-
    quirewaterforcooling,buthaveparasiticefciency
    lossesandhavevaryingperformancedependingon
    thelocaltemperatureandhumidity.
    Valuesforthewaterconsumptionofthermalpower
    plantsvaryduetothevarietyofexistingtechnologies
    andfuelsources,aswellastheclimaticdiferences,
    whichinuenceevaporationandtheselectionofthe
    coolingprocess.
    Hydropower
    Hydropowerpresentsthelargestrenewablesource
    ofelectricitygeneration(15%ofglobalproduction
    in2007),anditisestimatedthattwo-thirdsofthe
    worldseconomicallyfeasiblepotentialisstilltobe
    exploited(WEC,2010).Hydropoweruseswaterasits
    fuelbyrunningitthroughturbinesanddischarging
    ittoawaterbodyfurtherdownstream.Inthispro-
    cess,thewaterremainsunpollutedandthehydro-
    powerproductionprocessisthereforebydenition
    non-consumptive.However,inthecaseofstorage
    reservoirs,additionalevaporationmightoccurandhas
    recentlycometobeconsideredbysomeobserversas
    thewaterconsumptionofhydropowereventhough
    evaporationlossesarenotusuallyfactoredintoother
    CentralandSouthAmericauntil2035,consumes2.5to
    4timesmorewater(WEC,2010).
    Coal
    Coalisthesecondlargestprimaryenergysource
    globally,anditsuseisprojectedtoincreaseby2035
    (Figure2.4).Gerbens-Leenesetal.(2008)estimate
    thatapproximately0.164m
    3
    perGJareusedinthe
    variousprocesses,signicantlymoreofwhichisused
    duringundergroundminingoperationsthaninopen
    pitmining(Gleick,1994).
    Natural gas
    Signicantincreasesareexpectedintheproduction
    ofnaturalgasby2035(Figure2.4).Waterrequire-
    mentsforthedrilling,extractionandtransportation
    ofconventionalgassourcesarerelativelymodest,at
    anestimated0.109m
    3
    perGJ(Gerbens-Leenesetal.,
    2008).However,shalegasproduction,whichisexpect-
    edtoincreaseinAsia,AustraliaandNorthAmerica
    (GascoyneandAik,2011),hasslightlyhigherwater-
    intensitythanconventionalgas,becauseitsextraction
    method,hydraulicfracturing,injectsmillionsoflitresof
    waterintoeachwell.
    Uranium
    Uraniumsshareofglobalenergyconsumptionis
    projectedtoincreasefromabout6%todayto9%by
    2035(Figure2.4)(WEC,2010).Gerbens-Leenesetal.
    (2008)estimatethatwaterrequirementsforuranium
    miningandprocessingaremodestat0.086m
    3
    perGJ.
    Biomass and biofuel
    Biomass,includingwood,agrofuel,wasteandmunicipal
    by-products,isanimportantsourceofreandheating
    inmanynon-OECDcountryhouseholds(WEC,2010).
    Furthermore,biofeedstocksareincreasinglygrown
    commerciallytoreplacetheuseoffossilfuelsinOECD
    countriesatrendthathasraisedconcernsoverthe
    cropwaterrequirements.However,thewaterintensity
    dependsonthefeedstock,whereandhowthecropsare
    grown,andwhethertheyarerstorsecond-generation
    crops(Gerbens-Leenesetal.,2008;WEF,2009).Dueto
    thisvarietyofproductionprocesses,itisimpracticalto
    attributeasingularvalueorevenarepresentativerange
    ofwaterconsumptiontobiofuelproduction.
    Water requirements for the generation of electricity
    Thermal electricity
    Thermalpowerplants(coal,gas,oil,biomass,geother-
    maloruranium)generateelectricitybyheatingwater
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    55 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    duringhydropowerproductionincomparisonwith
    othertypesofenergy,andraisesseveralpointsthat
    arevalidtomeasuringlossesattributablenotexclu-
    sivelytohydropowerbuttoreservoirsfordiferent,of-
    tenmultipleuses.
    Wind, solar and photovoltaic
    WindandsolarPVcurrentlyaccountfor3%ofglobal
    electricityproduction.Duringoperation,thesetech-
    nologiesusevirtuallynowaterwiththeexceptionof
    thatforwashingofbladesorsolarcells(WEF,2009).
    However,waterrequirementsforwashingofsolar
    panelscanbeimportanttoremovedustwhenoperat-
    inginorneardeserts.Also,inthecaseoflarge-scale
    deploymentofconcentratingsolarpower,theelectric-
    ityisgeneratedviathesamesteamcycleasthermal
    powerplantsandwillthereforehavecoolingwater
    reservoir-relateduses.Estimationofwaterconsump-
    tionforhydroelectricityisparticularlydifcultasitre-
    liesonmodellingratherthanmeasuring(WEF,2009).
    Mostofthelatestresearchonthistopiccomesfrom
    theUSAwithndingspresentingarangefrom0.04
    to210m
    3
    perMWhwithanexpectedmedianof2.6
    to5.4m
    3
    perMWh(Gleick,1994).Suchestimatesare
    meanttoreectlossesthroughevaporationthatwould
    exceedwhatwouldhaveoccurredifthebasinhad
    remainedatitsnormalrun-of-riversurfacearea.Itis
    importanttonotethattheselossesarenotcausedby
    hydropowergenerationitself,butbythesurfacearea
    ofreservoirsandsite-specicclimaticconditions,and
    couldthusbeappliedtoanywaterusethatincludes
    areservoir,man-madeornatural.Box2.1presents
    thisandsomeofthecomplexitiesthatareassociated
    withtheconsiderationofwateruseandconsumption
    Evaporationfromhydroelectricpowerplantswasinitiallyresearchedintheearly1990sintheUnitedStatesofAmericainan
    attempttoquantifythewaterusagesofseveralenergyresources.Whilefewrecentmeasurementsexist,theUSguresfrom
    the1990sarefrequentlyusedtorepresentwaterrequirementsforhydropoweratagloballevel(Figure2.5).Pegasys(2011)
    notesthatseveralpointsneedtobeconsideredwhenconsideringtheimpactofhydropoweronthewaterresource:
    Understandingwateruse,consumptionandloss.Itisimportanttoclarifytheconceptsandterminologyassociated
    withthenon-consumptiveuseofwaterforhydropowergeneration.Whilehydroelectricproductiondoesnotconsume
    water,thereare:(1)lossesthroughevaporationthatexceedwhatwouldhavehappenedifthebasinhadremainedatits
    run-of-riversurfacearea,and(2)downstreamimpactsassociatedwithalteredowregimesthatneedtobetakenintoac-
    count.Perhapsthemostcommoncomplicationariseswithusesthatrelyonreservoirstoragetoallocateannualstream
    owovertime.Forexample,inmanylocations,asinChile,hydroelectricitygenerationcompeteswithotherwaterusesbe-
    causeitshapesstreamowstomeetpowerdemandthatareoftenoutofphasewiththeseasonalrequirementsforother
    uses(Hufaker,WhittleseyandWandschneider,1993;Bauer,1998).
    Natureofgenerationcapacity.Understandingagenerationtechnologyanditsfootprintoutsideofthewidernationalor
    regionalelectricitysystemraisesparticulardifculties.Eachgenerationfacilityhasaprescribedperformanceandcostpro-
    lethatdetermineitsdispatchorderandthereforewaterusage.Thisrolecanonlybeunderstoodinthecontextoftheoth-
    ersourcesofpowergeneration.Forexamplehydropowerhasmultipleusesinsystemseitherasbaseloadcapacity,peaking
    capacityorsupport.Furthermore,hydropowerreservoirspotentiallyservemultiplepurposes,includingrecreation,naviga-
    tion,oodcontrolandwaterstorage,henceallocatingitsimpactsacrossitsmyriadofservicesisdifcult.
    Energysupplychain.Eachgenerationtechnologyhasadiferentsupplychain.Aconsiderationofthissupplychainfrom
    extractionofrawmaterialtonalproductiscriticalinunderstandingthefootprintofthattechnology.Anomissionofthe
    supplychainobscuresthewaterrequirementsforthetechnologyandcomplicatescomparisonsbetweentechnologies.
    Attributionoflosses.Hydropowerinmanyinstancesisoneofthefunctionsinamulti-objectiveproject,andtheattribution
    ofreservoirevapotranspirationtoalloftheusesisnecessarywhenconsideringthefootprintandusageofhydropower.
    Structureofthehydropowersystem.Eachhydropowersystemisstructureddiferentlybasedonthenatureandowofthe
    riversystem.Reservoirsizes,depthandshapes,aswellasinstalledcapacity,dependonthepre-existinggeography,andde-
    terminetheevaporationaswellasgenerationvalue,highlightingtheneedtoevaluateeachprojectbasedonitsspecics.
    Climaticsetting.Thereisconsiderabledebatearoundimpact(oropportunitycost)ofthefootprintonthewaterresourcesof
    localbasins.Themeaningofthesamefootprintinabasinwithexcesswaterisdiferentfromthatinawater-scarcebasin.
    BOX 2.1
    Complexitiesincomparingwateruseandconsumptionforhydropowerproductionwiththatforother
    typesofenergy
    56
    thewateravailabilityrequiredforenergyproduction
    isoftennotconsideredwhennewenergyproduction
    facilitiesareplanned.Similarly,energyneedsforwater
    systemsarealsooftenoverlooked.
    Waterresourcesarenotevenlydistributedonthe
    planet,andcorrespondinglysomeregionswillface
    moreseverewater-for-energystressesthanothers.
    WEC(2010)estimatesthatChina,IndiaandtheMiddle
    East,whichalreadyexperiencewaterstressesandare
    forecasttoexperienceave-foldincreaseinelectricity
    production,willincreasinglyneedtoexplorenewtech-
    nologiesforprocessingprimaryenergiesandgenerat-
    ingelectricity.Otherregions,althoughexperiencing
    increasingwaterrequirementforenergyproduction,
    requirements,whichcanbeachallengeinhotanddry
    regions(CarterandCampbell,2009).
    Asageneraltrend,energyandelectricityconsump-
    tionarelikelytoincreaseoverthenext25yearsinall
    worldregions,withthemajorityofthisincreaseoccur-
    ringinnon-OECDcountries.Thistrendwillhavedirect
    implicationsforthewaterresourcesneededtosupply
    thisenergy.Table2.1showsthattheanticipatedwater
    requirementsforenergyproductionwillincreaseby
    11.2%by2050ifcurrentconsumptionmodesarekept.
    Underascenariothatassumesincreasingenergyef-
    ciencyofconsumptionmodes,WEC(2010)estimates
    thatwaterrequirementsforenergyproductioncould
    decreaseby2.9%until2050(Table2.2).Unfortunately,
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    FIGURE 2.6
    Operationalwaterconsumptionfortheproductionofvarioustypesofenergy
    Source: IPCC (2011, g. 9.14, p. 49). Trends in the demand of water for energy
    209 m
    3
    /MWh
    0
    1
    2
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    M
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    Cooling
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    Dry
    Cooling
    Non-thermal
    Technologies
    H
    y
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    Non-renewables
    Renewables
    Recirculating Cooling
    57 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    inseveralregions.Inaddition,wheresurfacewateris
    notabundant,importingwaterintotheregionmight
    bemoreenergyintensivethanpumpingavailable
    groundwaterresources.
    Wateriscommonlycleanedtomeetdrinkingwater
    standardsbyremovingsaltsandchemicalandbiologi-
    calcontaminants.Theenergyrequirementsusedfor
    surfaceandgroundwatertreatmentvarylargely,based
    onwaterquality(WEF,2011),technologyused(Strokes
    andHorvath,2009)andnationaldrinkingwaterstand-
    ards.However,ininternationallife-cycleanalyses,it
    hasbeenobservedthatdesalinationoflocallyavail-
    ablesourcesgenerallyrequiressignicantlymoreener-
    gythanimportingwatersources(StrokesandHorvath,
    2009),andrequiresgenerallysixtimesmoreenergy
    thanwastewatertreatment(WEF,2011).Electricity
    requirementsfordesalinationarerelativelywellre-
    searched,andStrokesandHorvath(2009)found
    thatinternationalelectricityuseforconventionaland
    membraneseawaterdesalinationtreatmentaveraged
    0.38kWhperyearperm
    3
    ,whilebrackishgroundwa-
    terdesalinationrequiresabout0.26kWhperyearper
    willmostlikelynotsuferfromwaterstressorscarcity,
    astheypossesssufcientresources.WEC(2010)esti-
    matesthatthisscenariowillbethecaseformostparts
    ofNorthandSouthAmericaandtheCaribbean.
    2.2.2Energyforwater
    Energyisneededforextraction(surfacewater,
    groundwater),transformation(treatmenttodrinking
    waterstandards,desalination),waterresourcedelivery
    (municipal,industrialandagriculturalsupply),recondi-
    tioning(wastewatertreatment)andrelease.However,
    fewcountriescurrentlyresearchandreportonenergy
    requirementsforwater.
    EPRI(2002)estimatesthat2-4%oftotalUSelectric-
    ityconsumptionisusedforwaterprovisionatwater
    andwastewatertreatmentplants.Includingend-uses,
    thenationalUSenergyconsumptionforwaterisap-
    proximately10%(TwomeyandWebber,2011).Energy
    requirementsforsurfacewaterpumpingaregener-
    ally30%lowerthanforgroundwaterpumping(EPRI,
    2002).Itcanbeexpectedthatgroundwaterwillbe-
    comeincreasinglyenergyintensiveaswatertablesfall
    TABLE 2.1
    Population,energyconsumptionandwaterconsumptionforenergy,20052050
    TABLE 2.2
    Population,energyconsumptionandwaterconsumptionforenergy,20052050,withimprovedenergyefciency
    World 2005 2020 2035 2050
    Population (million) 6290 7842.3 8601.1 9439.0
    Energy consumption (EJ) 328.7 400.4 464.9 518.8
    Energy consumption (GJ/capita) 52.3 51.1 54.1 55
    Water for energy (billion m
    3
    /year) 1815.6 1986.4 2087.8 2020.1
    Water for energy (m
    3
    /capita) 288.6 253.3 242.7 214.0
    World 2005 2020 2035 2050
    Population (million) 6290 7842.3 8601.1 9439.0
    Energy consumption (EJ) 328.7 364.7 386.4 435.0
    Energy consumption (GJ/capita) 52.3 46.5 44.9 46.1
    Water for energy (billion m
    3
    /year) 1815.6 1868.5 1830.5 1763.6
    Water for energy (m
    3
    /capita) 288.6 238.3 212.8 186.8
    Source: Adapted from WEC (2010, table 1, p. 50, various data sources).
    Source: Adapted from WEC (2010, table 2, p. 51, various data sources).
    58
    Treatingwastewatersludgethroughanaerobicdiges-
    tioncanalsoproduceenergythroughthecreation
    ofmethane-richbiogas,arenewablefuelthatcanbe
    usedtogenerateupto50%ofthetreatmentplants
    electricityneeds(SiegerandWhitlock,2005;Stillwell,
    KingandWebber,2010).
    Becausewastewatertreatmentisgenerallymoreener-
    gyintensivethanstandardwatertreatment,thetrend
    towardsthesehighertreatmentstandardswilllikely
    increasetheunitenergyneedsofwastewatertreat-
    mentinthefutureforcountriesmovingupinincome
    (Applebaum,2000).However,itispossiblethatthe
    introductionofgreaterenergyefciencywillofset
    theexpectedincreasesinenergyintensityforstricter
    treatmentstandards,limitingtheprojectedgrowth
    inelectricityuseattreatmentplants.Thehigherper
    capitaenergyexpendituresforwastewatertreatment
    inordertoachievestricterenvironmentalstandards
    isascenariolikelytoberepeatedinanalogousways
    throughoutallsocietiesachievingafuence;thatis,as
    nationsgetricher,theywilldemandmoreenergy.
    Energyisalsousedforirrigationofcrops.InOECD
    countries,energyforirrigationaccountforasmall
    fractionofthetotalenergyembeddedinwater(heat-
    ing,treatinganddisposingofwaterrequiresmuch
    moreenergy).However,innon-OECDcountrieswhere
    treatingandheatingarelesscommon,irrigationtakes
    uparelativelylargershareofenergyforwater.
    Waterrequirementstosupportgrowingpopulations
    areincreasing,andwaterscarcitywillobligenationsto
    m
    3
    .Thepriceofdesalinatedwateristhereforeclosely
    linkedtotheenergyprice,which,despiteuctuations,
    hasbeensteadilyincreasingoverthepastdecade(EIA,
    2010).However,whilesuchglobalaveragesmaybein-
    terestingintheory,drinkingwaterissoimportantthat
    localchoicesofwaterprovisionwillinpracticedepend
    onavailabilityoftheresource.Furthermore,desalina-
    tionproduceshighlyconcentratedwastebrinestreams
    thatmustbedisposedof.Coastaldesalinationplants
    dischargethatbrineintoneighbouringwaters,with
    negativeimpactsoncoastalmarineecology.Inland
    desalinationplantsfaceanequalchallengetondeco-
    logicallybenignwaystodisposeofthebrine.
    AsTable2.3shows,wastewatertreatmentalsorequires
    largeamountsofenergy(WEF,1997).High-income
    countriesthathavestricterdischargeregulationsin-
    stallmoreenergy-intensivetreatmenttechnologies.
    Tricklingltertreatment,whichusesabiologicallyac-
    tivesubstrateforaerobictreatment,isareasonably
    passivesystem,consumingover250kWhperMLon
    average(EPRI,2002;Stillwell,2011).Difusedairaera-
    tion,aspartofactivatedsludgeprocessing,isamore
    energyintensiveformofwastewatertreatment,requir-
    ing340kWhperMLduetoblowersandgastransfer
    equipment(EPRI,2002;Stillwell,2011).Moreadvanced
    wastewatertreatment,utilizingltrationandtheop-
    tionofnitrication,requires400500kWhperML
    (EPRI,2002;Stillwelletal.,2011).Infact,moread-
    vancedsludgetreatmentandprocessingcanconsume
    energyintherange3080%oftotalwastewaterplant
    energyuse(CenterforSustainableSystems,2008).
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    TABLE 2.3
    AverageUSguresforwaterproduction
    Note: The table does not include energy used for distribution.
    Sources: CEC (2005); EPRI (2002); Stillwell (2010); Stillwell et al. (2010, 2011).
    Source / treatment type
    Energy use
    (kWh/million L)
    Water
    Surface water 60
    Groundwater 160
    Brackish groundwater 1 000-2 600
    Seawater 2 600-4 400
    Wastewater
    Trickling lter 250
    Activated sludge 340
    Advanced treatment without nitrication 400
    Advanced treatment with nitrication 500
    59 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    therewillalsolikelybeanincreaseinlocalizedmeasures
    tosupplywaterandenergytoremotelocationsinor-
    dertoempowercommunitiesandpromotesustainable
    livelihoods.Suchmeasuresincludesmallandmicro-hy-
    dropowerandothersmall-scalerenewablestoprovide
    electricityforcommunities(GVEP,2011),aswellassand
    dams(Excellent,2011)andenergy-independentpumps
    fortheprovisionofruralwatersources.
    Therearealsotechnicalsolutionstomoreefcient
    wateruseintheenergysector.Forexample,brackish
    water,minepoolwater,ordomesticwastewaterand
    drycoolinghavebeenusedforcoolingpowerplants
    (NETL,2009).Researchisalsoongoingintothewater
    efciencyofbiofuels(Gerbens-Leenesetal.,2008),
    theenergy-efciencyofdesalination(AFF,2002),and
    thereductionofevaporationfromreservoirs.
    Thewaterenergynexuswilltranscendwateruseand
    consumptioninmerequantityconsiderations.Energy
    productionalsoimpactswaterquality.Thermal,chemical,
    radioactiveorbiologicalpollutioncanhavedirectimpacts
    ondownstreamecosystems;whereemissionsarenotsuf-
    cientlycontrolled,considerableamountsofagricultural
    landmaybeafectedbyacidrain.Similarly,wherewater
    scarcityobligesnationstousenon-traditionalsources
    ofwater(e.g.desalination,brackishwater),choiceswill
    needtobesensitivetothewaterandenvironmentalim-
    pactsoftherequiredelectricity.
    2.3Industry
    2.3.1Statusandtrends
    Althoughindustryusesrelativelylittlewaterona
    globalscale,itneverthelessrequiresanaccessible,
    reliableandenvironmentallysustainablesupply.It
    isgenerallyreportedthatapproximately20%ofthe
    worldsfreshwaterwithdrawalsareusedbyindustry,
    althoughthisvariesbetweenregionsandcountries.
    Furthermore,asdescribedinSection2.2,waterwith-
    drawalsforindustryaremostoftenreportedincom-
    binationwiththoseforenergy.Inaddition,thewater
    requiredforsmall-scaleindustryandcommerceisof-
    tenconfusedwithdomesticconsumption.Asaresult,
    surprisinglylittleisknownabouthowmuchwateris
    actuallywithdrawnandconsumedbyindustryforits
    purposedmanufacturing,transformationandproduc-
    tionneeds.
    Thepercentageofacountrysindustrialsectorwa-
    terdemandsisgenerallyproportionaltotheaverage
    incomelevel,representingonlyabout5%ofwater
    progressivelyexploreunconventionalsourcesofwater
    withlargerelectricityrequirements.Thus,whiletech-
    nologiesaresteadilybecomingmoreenergyefcient
    (StrokesandHorvath,2009),thisgaininefciency
    risksbeingofsetbytheincreasedenergyrequire-
    mentsfordeliveringwaterfromincreasinglydistant
    sourcesandsourcesdisadvantageousduetotheir
    location,ortreatingwaterthatisoflowerquality.
    2.2.3Drivers,challengesandresponsestothe
    water-energynexus
    Asstatedearlier,globalenergyconsumptionisex-
    pectedtoincreasedramaticallyoverthenexttwo
    decades.Thistrendisprimarilyafunctionofpopula-
    tionandeconomicgrowthindevelopingcountries.The
    mainchallengewithregardtowaterandenergywill
    betheprovisionofwaterresourcestoensurethatthe
    increasedenergyneedscanbesupplied.Thisneed
    requirespolicy-makerstopromotemoreefcientand
    integratedwaterusesforenergyandviceversa.The
    rststeptowardsuchpolicieswillbecomprehensive
    assessmentsofwateravailabilityonacountrylevel.
    Second,waterandenergypolicies,whichareoften
    madeindiferentgovernmentdepartmentsorminis-
    tries,willneedtobeintegratedwithpolicy-makersin-
    creasinglyworkinginclosecoordination.
    Alltheaforementionedtrendssuggestapotential
    movementtowardswater-productionmethodsthatare
    increasinglyenergy-intensive.Manyhigh-incomesocie-
    tiesaremovingtowardsmoreenergy-intensivewater
    becauseofapushbymanywaterutilitiesfornewsup-
    pliesofwaterfromsourcesthatarefartherawayand
    lowerquality,andwhichtherebyrequiremoreenergy
    togetthemtotherightqualityandlocation.Inaddi-
    tiontotreatingwatertohigherstandardsofcleanliness,
    societiesarealsogoingtogreaterlengthstotransport
    freshwaterfromitssourcestodenseurbanareas.These
    efortsincludediggingtoever-deeperundergroundres-
    ervoirs,ormovingwaterviamassivelong-haulprojects
    (Stillwell,KingandWebber,2010).
    Inpoliticallystableregions,thereisastrongpossibil-
    itythattheroleofnationaldecision-makingframeswill
    declineandthatdecisionsonwaterandenergymay
    increasinglybesubjectedtoinuencesatthesupra-
    nationallevel,withgovernmentsworkingtogetherin
    basinorganizationsandpowerpoolsassuming(as
    mentionedinChapter1)thatsuchprocessesandrelated
    agreementsreectthepoliticaleconomyandinstitu-
    tionalcapacitiesofthecountriesinvolved.Conversely,
    60
    necessitatingadditionaltreatmentofwaterfrompri-
    marysupplies.Othersectors,suchastourism,power
    generationandtransportation,canalsohavedifering
    waterqualityrequirements.
    Thewaterqualityofefuentdischargescanhavevery
    signicantenvironmentalimpacts,particularlyon
    regionalandlocalscales(UNEP,2007).Small-scale
    industriessuchasagro-processors,textiledyeing,
    abattoirsandtanneriescancausethepresenceof
    toxicpollutantsinlocalwaterresources.Notonlydo
    thepollutantsmakethewaternon-potable,butthey
    alsokillsh,whichareasourceofproteinformany
    poorpeople.Certaintoxicchemicalsenterthefood
    chainwhenpollutedwateroruntreatedwastewa-
    terfromindustriesisusedforagriculture.Industrial
    contaminationtendstobemoreconcentrated,more
    toxic,andoftenhardertotreatthanpollutantsfrom
    othersectorsoractivities.Thepersistenceofthese
    contaminants,andtheirrateofmovementthoughthe
    environmentandhydrologicalcycle,canofteninvolve
    longperiodsofimpairedwaterresources(UNEP,
    2007).
    Inadditiontoconsideringwaterquantityandqual-
    ityconcerns,industrymustalsousewaterefciently
    andwisely,evenasitseekstoaugmentitseconomic
    outputandprot.Thisconceptofwaterproductivity
    referstothevaluethatcanbeobtainedfromeachunit
    ofwaterused.ThethirdeditionoftheWorld Water
    Development Report(Chapter7)reportedvaluesrang-
    ingfromwelloverUS$100tolessthanUS$10perm
    3

    ofwaterused,dependingonthecountry.Astechnol-
    ogyimproves,industrialwaterproductivityalsotypi-
    callyrises.Thus,lowproductivitymayindicatethatthe
    wateriseitherunder-pricedorsimplyabundant,which
    resultsincostbecominganinsignicantfactor.High
    productivityislinkedtohighwaterre-use,withre-
    ducedwaterwithdrawals.Waterproductivityalsocan
    beofconsiderableinteresttodecision-makerscon-
    cernedwithwaterallocations.
    Inadditiontowaterwithdrawals,signicantindustrial
    interventionsafectingthehydrologicalcycleinclude
    efuentdischargesintosurfacewaterbodies,con-
    taminantinltrationintogroundwater,andatmos-
    phericdistributionandfalloutofcontaminantsinto
    waterbodies.Oneapproachtodecreasingoravoid-
    ingenvironmentaldegradationfromindustrialactivi-
    ties,evenasindustrycontinuestodevelop,isthrough
    cleanerproductionandsustainabilitypractices.Cleaner
    withdrawalsinlow-incomecountries,comparedto
    over40%insomehigh-incomecountries(Figure2.1).
    Thisobservationsuggeststhatthelevelofacountrys
    oraregionseconomicdevelopmentisanimportant
    driverofitsindustrialwateruse,andmayultimately
    haveasmuchinuenceonwateruseasitspopulation
    growth.
    Watermanagementintheindustrysectoristypically
    consideredintermsofindustrialwithdrawalsandcon-
    sumption.Totalindustrialwaterwithdrawalscanbe
    calculatedas:WaterWithdrawal=WaterConsumption
    +EfuentDischarge(Grobicki,2007).
    Industrystotalwaterwithdrawalfromsurfacewa-
    terandgroundwaterisusuallymuchgreaterthanthe
    quantityofwateritactuallyconsumes.Improvedwater
    managementisgenerallyreectedinoveralldecreased
    industrialwaterwithdrawalsorincreasedwastewater
    treatment,highlightingtheconnectionbetweenhigher
    productivityandlowerconsumptionandefuentdis-
    chargesandreducedpollution.
    Thequalityofwaterrequiredbyindustryforspecic
    needscanvaryconsiderably.Wateroflesserquality
    maybeadequateformanyindustries,facilitatingthe
    useofrecycledandreclaimedwater.Conversely,some
    industriesmayhavewaterqualityrequirementsmore
    demandingthanthosefordrinkingwater;forexam-
    ple,foodprocessing.Pharmaceuticalandhightech-
    nologyindustriescanrequireveryhigh-qualitywater,
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    Surprisingly little is
    known about how
    much water is actually
    withdrawn and
    consumed by industry
    for its purposed
    manufacturing,
    transformation and
    production needs.
    61 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    Theindustrialutilizationofwaterresourcesinclud-
    ingwatersupplyqualityandwastewatertreatmentis
    greatlyimpactedbytechnologicalinnovation,which
    canleadtocleanerproductionandsustainability.
    Assumingappropriatetechnologiesareavailabletoall
    (asituationnotnecessarilyapplicabletolocalindus-
    triesindevelopingcountries),watertreatmentcon-
    straintsareprimarilyafunctionofcostratherthan
    alackoftechnicalcapabilitytoachievehigh-quality
    water.Althoughrevolutionarytechnologicalbreak-
    throughsforwatertreatmentseemunlikelyatpresent,
    thereareneverthelessmanyincrementaltechnological
    advancesthatoftenbringcostreductions,consistent
    withaprimaryindustrygoalofensuringthemosteco-
    nomicsystemforachievingrequiredwaterquality.
    Inthepast,waterhasbeenconsideredarelatively
    certaincomponentofindustrialprocesses.Indeed,it
    hasbeentypicallyassumedthattheneededwater
    supplywouldbeeasyandrelativelycheaptosecure.
    Wastewaterdischargeshavebeenmoreofachal-
    lenge,althoughefuentdischargeswerepermissible
    providedwaterquality(ortreatment)standardswere
    achieved.Therecentnumberofnewexternaldriv-
    ersonwateranditsmanagement,however,hasnow
    madewateruseamuchriskierpropositionforindustry
    (Figure2.7).Efectiveoperationofanindustryrequires
    asustainablesupplyofwaterintherightquantity,of
    therightquality,attherightplace,attherighttime
    andattherightprice(Payne,2007).Industrywillnd
    itselfincreasinglycompetingforlimitedwaterresourc-
    esaswaterdemandsandconsumptionincreaseinall
    sectors,particularlyagriculturewithitssubstantial
    waterneeds.Thus,allthesefactorsarenowsubjectto
    greateruncertainty.
    Waterscarcityisviewedasanincreasingbusinessrisk,
    withindustrialwatersupplysecuritydependenton
    sufcientresources.Thisproblemiscompoundedby
    geographicandseasonalvariations,aswellaswater
    allocationsandcompetingwaterneedsinagivenre-
    gion(e.g.agriculturevsdrinkingwaterorresidential
    supplyvsindustry),asituationthatmaybebeyond
    thecontrolofindustry.Thisisespeciallytruefortrans-
    boundarywatersituations,wheretheneedsoftwo
    ormorecountriesmayconictoroverwhelmwater
    availability.
    Waterqualityrisksassociatedwithbothwatersupply
    andefuentdischargescanafectindustry,therebyre-
    strictingindustrialexpansion.Intermsofwatersupply,
    productionhasmanyfacets,andoneofitsmainobjec-
    tivesistomovetowardzeroefuentdischarges,with
    industryworkingtoconvertwastewaterstreamsinto
    usefulinputsforotherprocesses,industriesandindus-
    trialclusters.
    2.3.2Externaldrivers
    Industryisstronglyinuencedbyexternaldriversthat,
    indirectly,canaddcomplexityanduncertaintytoin-
    dustrywaterneeds.Economicgrowthanddevelop-
    mentaretheoverallmaindriversofindustrialwater
    use,andthatrelationshipisreciprocal:whileeconomic
    forcesafectwater,theavailabilityandstateofwater
    resourcesalsoinuenceseconomicactivity.Ecosystem
    stress,societalvaluesandsecurityarealsoimportant
    drivers,butaretypicallymorelocalinnature.
    Internationaltradewhichadriverforindustryand
    waterrequiresthatexportsfromasourcecoun-
    trymeetenvironmentalregulationsinthedesti-
    nationcountry.AnumberofglobalMultilateral
    EnvironmentalAgreements(MEAs),suchastheBasel
    Convention,
    4
    havealsoresultedinglobalstandards.
    Developingcountriesinparticularcanfacetrade
    hurdlesinmeetingtheenvironmentalrequirements
    ofdevelopedcountries,includingISOcertications,
    environmentalmanagementsystems(EMS)andcor-
    poratesocialresponsibility(CSR),whichcouldbe
    seenbysomeasnon-tarifbarrierstotrade.Thus,
    industriesindevelopingcountriescanbesubjected
    tostricter,explicitandimplicitinternationalrequire-
    ments,aswellassomecontrol,bythemultinational
    companiestowhichtheysupplygoodsorservices.
    However,theserequirementscaninturnleadtobet-
    terproductmanufacturingstandards,includingen-
    ergyefciencyandclimatechange(carbonfootprint)
    considerations,withindustrybenetingfrombetter
    management(includingwaterresourcesmanage-
    ment)andresultingincreasedefciency.Finally,the
    focusongreengrowthandthegreeneconomy(see
    Section12.1)attheRio+20Summitin2012willlikely
    leadtoagreementsamongmemberstatesonthe
    adoptionofstandardsand/orprotocols,whichwill
    inturnhavesignicantimplicationsforindustry.The
    challengeandopportunityforbusinessistounder-
    standtheconcretepossibilitiesofagreeneconomy,
    withitsopportunitiesandrisksforitsmanysectors
    anddiferentnationalcontexts.Governmentswill
    needtoworkcollectivelytoensurethepreventionof
    pollutionhavensincountrieswithpoorenforcement
    capacities.
    62
    Likewise,industrialexpansioncanplaceunsustainable
    strainonwaterresources.
    Governmentpoliciesregardingwatermustoften
    respondtomulti-facetedagendasonthenationalto
    locallevel.Governmentprioritiesandpoliciesinevitably
    changeovertime.Thesechanges,particularlyunpredict-
    ableones,canmakeitdifcultforindustry,especially
    multi-nationalcompanies,tolocatesuccessfullyincertain
    countries.Forexample,poorpolicydecisionscanlead
    toover-useofwaterresourcesinsomelocationsand
    under-useinothers.Furthermore,governmentalper-
    ceptionsofwaterrisksinagivencasecanbeatodds
    withthoseofindustry.Environmentalconcernsand
    pressuresfromthepublic,specialinterestgroupsand
    businesscanfurtherinuencegovernmentdecisions
    regardingwater.
    2.3.3Adaptationsandoptionsforsolutions
    Undoubtedly,businessandindustrycanplayalead-
    ingroleinsustainablewaterpractices.Tosuccessfully
    adapttowaterscarcitywhichcaninvolvenotonlya
    lackofwaterbutalsopoorwaterdeliveryinfrastruc-
    tureand/orpoorwatermanagementabusinessor
    industrymusthaveaccurateknowledgeofitsspecic
    ithasbeennotedthatmanysectorsrequirehigh-quality
    water,therebynecessitatingadditionalwatertreat-
    ment.Incasesofcontaminatedsurfaceorground-
    watersupplies,industryfacesincreasedcostsassociated
    withadditionalwatertreatmentneeds.Althoughthis
    requirementmaywellpromptindustrytomorestrong-
    lyconsiderusingreclaimedorrecycledwater,itwill
    mostlikelyweighondecisionsregardingthelocation
    ofacompanysindustrialactivities.
    Intermsofindustrialwastewaterdischarges,thevast
    majorityindevelopingcountriesisdischargedwith
    littleornotreatment(WWAP,2009).Thus,thereis
    considerablepressureonindustrytocleanitsefuents.
    Whilecompliancewilldoubtlessbecomestricterand
    moreonerous,theactualcriteriaandseverityofstand-
    ardsvarybyjurisdiction.Anassociatedriskisinvesting
    innewtreatmenttechnologythatmaysubsequently
    becomeobsoletewithinonlyafewyears.Moreover,
    industrialaccidents,suchasuncontrolleddischarges,
    maybetheresultofeconomicandotherdriversthat
    forcedindustrialexpansionmorequicklythanwasjus-
    tiableinagivensituation,possiblyutilizingunproven
    technologyand/orinsensitivelocations.Poorwa-
    terquality,therefore,canrestrictindustrialexpansion.
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    FIGURE 2.7
    Inter-relationshipofwaterrisksamongbusiness,governmentandsociety
    Sources: SABMiller Plc and WWF-UK (2009, g. 2, p. 5, refer to www.sabmiller.com/water).
    operationalrisk

    reputationalrisk

    regulatoryrisk
    BUSINESS
    RISK
    CIVILSOCIETYRISK
    GOVERNMENTRISK
    PHYSICAL
    WATERFAILURE
    primarywaterresource
    shortage,degradation
    orooding

    secondarywatersupply
    andwaterwastefailure
    SOCIAL,
    ECONOMIC,
    ECOLOGICAL
    IMPACTS
    63 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    productivity,efciencyandcompetitivenessinasus-
    tainableway.
    Theproblemssurroundingwaterproductivityinin-
    dustryandbroaderglobalwaterconcernsareinter-
    related.Assuch,theyrequireintegratedmanagement,
    strategy,planningandactionstoprovideefective
    solutions.Tomeetthesechallenges,industrymustrst
    looktoitsmanagementprioritiesandstyle,andits
    companyvaluesandculture,toencourageapositive
    responsefromwithinitsownsphere.Anintegrated
    managementapproach,promotingproactivemeasures
    byindustry,includingconsiderationoftheneedsand
    interestsofafectedstakeholdersandtheenvironment,
    willnotonlyanticipatethefuture,butactuallyhelp
    shapeit(BSRandPacicInstitute,2007).Innovation,
    investmentandcollaborationarekeyelementstoad-
    dressingthisgoal,andachievingitwillrequireastrate-
    gicapproach,includingthefollowingpoints:
    Ameasureofindustrysoperationalandsupply-chain
    wateruse(youcantmanagewhatyoudontmeas-
    ure).
    5
    Anaccuratewaterimpactassessmentconsid-
    ersaproductswatercontent,andthelessobvious
    inputsandusesofwaterinitsproduction(virtual
    water).Afurtherdeterminationiswhereandwhen
    thewaterisused,andforwhatpurpose.Thisdeter-
    minationrequiresaccuratedataandaconsistentap-
    proachtomeasurementandmonitoring.
    Ameasureofindustryexposuretowaterrisksinvolv-
    ingariskassessmentthatevaluatesrelevanthydro-
    logical,economic,social,politicalandenvironmental
    factorsindiferentcontexts.
    waterneeds.Forexample,establishingwateraccount-
    ingtechniquesandmeasuringwaterimpactscanallow
    anindustrytomorereadilyidentifypotentialareasof
    increasedwateruseefciency;however,theaccumu-
    lationofaccuratedataandaconsistentapproachto
    watermeasurementsandmonitoringareneededto
    achievethisend.Anotherapproachtoincreasingwa-
    terproductivityinvolvesdoingmorewithless,ideally
    movingtowardagoalofzerodischarge(i.e.utilizing
    aclosed-loopproductionsystem).Thisobjectiveun-
    derpinstherecentdevelopmentofindustrialecology
    (eco-innovation)asameansofaddressingthe
    inter-relationshipofindustrialandeconomicsystems
    tonaturalsystems.
    Industryisgenerallyaccustomedtohavingwateravail-
    ableatarelativelyinexpensiveprice.Increasingwater
    scarcity,however,willresultinhighercharges,includ-
    ingadditionalchargesforwatertreatmentanddis-
    charge.Thereisanargumentfordevelopingadiferent
    pricestructureforindustrialwateruse;thatis,requiring
    industrytopaymoreperunitofwaterthanthepublic,
    aswellasincreasingamountsperunitwithincreasing
    wateruse.Theimpactsofsuchpracticesonindustrywill
    naturallypromoteincreasedwateruseefciency,since
    theeconomicrealitiesofthecostofwaterwillincrease
    thepriceoftheassociatedproducts.Theseefects
    couldhaveanimpactontheindustrializationprocess
    indevelopingcountrieswherewatercostsareusually
    lowifnotnon-existent,andtheconceptsofwaterpro-
    ductivityandcleanerproductionareeitherunknownor
    sidelinedinefortstomakegoodsandcreatejobs.
    Againstthisbackground,theembracingchallengeis
    forindustrytoplayitsappropriateroleinefectively
    addressingunsustainableexploitationandcontami-
    nationoffreshwaterresourcesaroundtheworld.This
    includestheimpactsofindustryonthosesuppliesand
    thechallengeofmitigatingthemforthebenetofall
    waterusersandtheenvironmentagoalthatmust
    beapproachedwithinthecontextofcorporate,social
    andenvironmentalresponsibility.Althoughthereare
    waystoaddresstheissues,risksandchallengesofwa-
    terproductivity,theyrequireefectiveimplementation
    andoversight,includingtheapplicationofenviron-
    mentaltechnologiestohelpconservethenaturalenvi-
    ronmentandresources,aswellastocurbthenega-
    tiveimpactsofhumanactivities.Moreover,information
    withoutactionandpublicdisclosuredoesnotconsti-
    tuterealprogress.Focusingonmeetingthischallenge
    willprovideindustrywithanopportunitytoincrease
    Efective operation of
    an industry requires
    a sustainable supply
    of water in the right
    quantity, of the right
    quality, at the right
    place, at the right time
    and at the right price.
    64
    areprojectedtoincreaseby2.9billion,from3.4billion
    in2009to6.3billiontotalin2050.Thus,theurbanar-
    easoftheworldareexpectedtoabsorballofthepop-
    ulationgrowthoverthenextfourdecades,whilealso
    drawinginsomeoftheruralpopulation.Furthermore,
    mostofthepopulationgrowthexpectedinurbanar-
    easwillbeconcentratedinthecitiesandtownsofless
    developedregions.Asiaspopulationisprojectedtoin-
    creaseby1.7billion;Africahasaprojectedurbanpop-
    ulationgainof0.8billion;andLatinAmericanandthe
    Caribbeanurbanpopulationsareprojectedtogrowby
    0.2billion.In1950,NewYorkCityandTokyowerethe
    onlytwocitieswithpopulationsexceeding10million.
    By2015,itisexpectedthattherewillbe23suchcities
    ofwhich19willbeindevelopingcountries.Projections
    indicateacontinuingincreasingtrendofurbanization
    indevelopingcountries.By2030,itisanticipatedthat
    theurbanpopulationindevelopinganddeveloped
    countrieswillamountto3.9billionand1billionrespec-
    tively.Populationgrowthisthereforebecominglargely
    anurbanphenomenonconcentratedinthedeveloping
    world(UN-Habitat,2006).
    Migration from rural to urban areas poses a major
    challenge for city planners; extending basic drink-
    ing water and sanitation services to peri-urban and
    slum areas to reach the poorest people is of the
    utmost importance to prevent outbreaks of chol-
    era and other water-related diseases in these often
    overcrowded places. (WHO/UNICEF, 2006, p. iii)
    Slumsgenerallypresentasetofuniqueproblems,includ-
    ingpoorhousingconditions,inadequateaccesstosafe
    waterandsanitation,overcrowdingandinsecuretenure;
    thus,thewelfareofthoselivingintheseareasareseri-
    ouslyimpacted(Sclar,GarauandCarolini,2005).The
    relationbetweenclimatechangeandslumareasiscause
    foralarmintermsofdisastervulnerabilityresultingfrom
    meteorologicalphenomena.Tocomplicatemattersfur-
    ther,slumsareusuallybuiltondangerousland,unsuitable
    forhumansettlement.Forexample,shantytownsnear
    BuenosAiresarebuiltonood-proneland,andresidents
    arethereforeforcedtomakeadifcultchoicebetween
    theirsafetyandhealthandtheirneedforshelter(Davis,
    2006).Insomecities,forexampleMumbai,nearlyhalf
    theurbanpopulationresideinslumsandshantytowns
    (SteckoandBarber,2007).AsisevidentfromFigure2.8,
    notonlyistheslumpopulationrising,itisalsohighly
    concentratedindevelopingcountries,especiallyinsub-
    SaharanAfrica,SouthernCentralandEasternAsia.In
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,asignicantreduction
    Acorporatewaterpolicythatembracesstrategies
    rangingfromcorporatevaluestocommunication,
    andwhichmayinclude:
    oPromotingCSR
    oEncouragingcradle-to-cradleindustrial
    operations
    6

    oUsingtheprecautionaryprincipletopromoteac-
    tion,developoptionsandassistdecisions
    oIntroducingEMS
    oSettingmeasurablegoalsandtargetswithregard
    towaterefciency,conservationandimpacts,ac-
    companiedbypublicdisclosureofrelevantdata
    oDecouplingmaterialandenergyconsumption,and
    integratingenergyneedsandwaterrequirements
    oConstantandefectivecommunicationwiththe
    publicandlocalstakeholdersregardingtheeco-
    nomicandenvironmentalcostsandbenetsof
    variousindustrialpolicies,strategiesandmeasures
    oCollaborationwithgovernmentagencies
    oBecominginvolvedwithlike-mindedcompanies
    throughsuchavenuesastheCEOWaterMandate
    andtheWorldBusinessCouncilforSustainable
    Development,asameansofsharingandpromot-
    ingsuccessfulactions,therebyassumingaproac-
    tiveleadershiproleinsustainablepractices
    Aninnovationimplementationstrategyinvolv-
    ingbothongoinginitiativesneedingreinforcement
    andothersthatmightbeconsideredforthefuture,
    including:
    oDecreasingwateruseandincreasingwaterproduc-
    tivitythroughwateraudits,zerodischargeandwater
    optimizationtechniques,waterrecyclingandreuse,
    addressingwaterlossesfromaginginfrastructure,
    andfullandconsistentmonitoringactivities
    oIntroducingnewtechnologies,includingadapting
    newenvironmentaltechnologiesandincorporating
    naturalwatertreatmentsystems,transferringenvi-
    ronmentallysoundtechnologiesinconjunctionwith
    environmentalmanagementaccounting(EMA)
    oEmployingindustrialecology(eco-innovation),
    includingemployingenvironmentaldesigninto
    industrialdesignandplanning,investinginenvi-
    ronmentalandecologicalrestoration,andusinga
    life-cycleapproachwithinthecontextofaclosed-
    loopsystem
    2.4Humansettlements
    2.4.1Urbanizationandpopulationtrends
    Between2009and2050,theworldpopulationisex-
    pectedtoincreaseby2.3billion,from6.8to9.1billion
    (UNDESA,2009).Atthesametime,urbanpopulations
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    65 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    177(55%ofthecityscommunes)covering61%ofthe
    cityarea(ADB,2010).
    2.4.2Watersupplyandsanitationcoverage:Keeping
    upwithurbangrowth
    Worldwide,87%ofthepopulationgetsitsdrinkingwa-
    terfromimprovedsources,andthecorrespondingg-
    urefordevelopingregionsisalsohighat84%.Accessis
    fargreater,however,inurbanareas(at94%),whileonly
    76%ofruralpopulationshaveaccesstoimprovedsourc-
    es(WHO/UNICEF,2010).However,theseestimatesdo
    nottakeintoconsiderationservicequality(e.g.intermit-
    tentsupply,disinfection)orafordability.Also,giventhe
    lackofreliabledataconcerninghumanpopulationsin
    marginalizedcommunities(i.e.slums),governmentsand
    internationalagenciesarelikelytosignicantlyunderes-
    timatethenumberofurbandwellerslackingadequate
    provisionfordrinkingwater.Furthermore,thisnumber
    isactuallyincreasingasrapidurbanizationcontinuesin
    manyregions(UN-Habitat,2003,2010).
    In2010,areported2.6billionpeopleintheworlddid
    notuseimprovedsanitationfacilities(WHO/UNICEF,
    2010).Oftheapproximately1.3billionpeoplewho
    gainedaccesstoimprovedsanitationduringthepe-
    riod19902008,64%liveinurbanareas.However,ur-
    banareas,althoughbetterservedthanruralareas,are
    strugglingtokeepupwithurbanpopulationgrowth
    isobservedintheproportionoftheurbanpopulationliv-
    inginmarginalareasfrom37%(110millionpeople)in
    1990to25%(106million)in2005(UnitedNations,2010).
    Citiesindevelopingcountriesfaceenormousback-
    logsinshelter,infrastructureandservices,aswellas
    insufcientwatersupply,deterioratingsanitationand
    environmentalpollution.Populationgrowthandrapid
    urbanizationwillcreateanevengreaterdemandfor
    waterwhiledecreasingtheabilityofecosystemsto
    providemoreregularandcleanersupplies.
    Climatechangeisposinganadditionalchallengeto
    urbanwatersuppliesbychangingwateravailabil-
    ityandexacerbatingwater-relateddisasterssuchas
    oodsanddroughts.Forexample,tropicalstorms
    wererareinHoChiMinhCity,VietNam,untilfairly
    recently.Butoverthepast60years,12largetropi-
    calstormsincludingVae(1952),Linda(1997)and
    Durian(2006)haveafectedthecity.Typically,
    thesestormsbringheavyrainfall,increasedlocalized
    oodingandstormsurgesalongthecoastalareas,
    causingseriousextensiveoodingof1.0to1.2m.Of
    theHoChiMinhCitys322communesandwards,154
    haveahistoryofregularooding.Theseoodscover
    closeto110,000haandafectsome971,000people
    (12%ofthepopulation).Itispredictedthatby2050,
    suchregularlyoodedareaswillhaveincreasedto
    FIGURE 2.8
    Slumpopulationbyregion,19902020(thousands)
    Source: Produced by UN-Habitat based on data available at http://ww2.unhabitat.org/programmes/guo/documents/Table4.pdf (published in
    State of the Worlds Cities Report 2001).
    1,600,000
    1,400,000
    1,200,000
    1,000,000
    800,000
    600,000
    400,000
    200,000
    0
    Europe
    Other
    NorthernAfrica
    Sub-SaharanAfrica
    LatinAmericaand
    theCaribbean
    EasternAsia
    South-centralAsia
    South-EastAsia
    WesternAsia
    Oceania
    1990 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020
    66
    groundwater,areasoutsidecitiesandupstreamwater-
    shedareas,aswellasfromruralareas,deprivingother
    usersandchallengingecosystemfunctions.
    Inareaswheresurfacewaterisnotreadilyavailable,
    groundwateristheprimarywatersource(UNEP/GRID-
    Arendal,2008).Excessivegroundwaterabstractionis
    resultinginfallingwatertables,waterqualitydegra-
    dationandlandsubsidence(seeSection3.2.1),asis
    thecaseinseveralcitiesinAsiaincludingBangkok,
    Beijing,Chennai,Manila,Shanghai,TianjinandXian
    (Foster,LawrenceandMorris,1998).
    ThesupplyingaquiferinMexicoCityfellby10masof
    1992,resultinginlandsubsidenceofupto9m.Over-
    abstractionincoastalareasresultsinsaltwaterintru-
    sion:inEurope,53outof126groundwaterareasshow
    saltwaterintrusion,mostlyinaquifersthatareusedfor
    publicandindustrialwatersupply(Chiramba,2010).
    Agrowingnumberoflargeurbancentreaquifersare
    alsofacingpollutionfromorganicchemicals,pesti-
    cides,nitrates,heavymetalsandwater-bornepatho-
    gens(UNEP/GRID-Arendal,2008).
    Pollution and wastewater
    Urbansettlementsarealsothemainsourceofpoint-
    sourcepollution.Urbanwastewaterisparticularly
    threateningwhencombinedwithuntreatedindustrial
    waste.Inmanyfast-growingcities(smallandmedium-
    sizedcitieswithpopulationsoflessthan500,000),
    wastewaterinfrastructureisnon-existent,inadequate
    oroutdated.Forexample,thecityofJakarta,witha
    populationof9million,generates1.3millionm
    3
    ofsew-
    agedaily,ofwhichlessthan3%istreated.Incontrast,
    Sydney,withapopulationof4million,treatsnearlyall
    ofitswastewater(1.2millionm
    3
    perday)(Chiramba,
    2010).Chilemadeimpressiveprogressinurbanwaste-
    watertreatment,increasingitfromonly8%in1989
    toalmost87%in2010(SISS,2011),withplanstotreat
    allurbanwastewaterin2012(PickeringdelaFuente,
    2011).Worldwide,itisestimatedthatover80%of
    wastewaterworldwideisnotcollectedortreated
    (Corcoranetal.,2010).AsshowninFigure2.9,thera-
    tioofuntreatedtotreatedwastewaterreachingwater
    bodiesfor10regionsinsignicantlyhigherindevelop-
    ingregionsoftheworld.
    Wastewatercontributestoincreaseineutrophication
    anddeadzonesinbothoceansandfreshwater.Dead
    zonesafectabout245,000km
    2
    ofmarineecosystems,
    withconsequentimpactsonsheries,livelihoodsand
    (WHO/UNICEF,2010).Again,projecteddemographic
    growthinurbanareasgivesriseforconcern:ifeforts
    continueatthecurrentrate,improvementsinsanita-
    tionfacilitycoveragewillonlyincreaseby2%from
    80%in2004to82%in2015(anadditional81million
    people)(WHO/UNICEF,2006).
    Acomparisonofthelatestestimatesfrom2008with
    thoseof2000indicatesadeteriorationinbothwater
    andsanitationcoverageinurbanareas.Overthose
    eightyears,incitiesandtownsofallsizes,thenumber
    ofpeoplewithoutaccesstotapwaterathomeorin
    theimmediatevicinityincreasedby114million,andthe
    numberofpeoplewithoutaccesstoprivatesanitary
    toilets(basicsanitation)increasedby134million.In
    bothcases,thismeansanincreaseof20%inthenum-
    berofindividualslivingincitieswholackaccesstoba-
    sicfacilities(AquaFed,2010).
    Keepingupwiththepopulationincreaseincitiesand
    maintainingcurrentwatersupplyandsanitation(WSS)
    servicescoveragelevelsfor2015requiresserving
    700millionurbandwellersoverthecomingdecade
    (WHO/UNICEF,2006).Atpresent,theurbanpopulation
    isincreasingfasterthanthespeedofimprovementin
    WSSservices;however,currentefortstoaddressthis
    challengearenotinsignicant(UNDESA,2009).For
    example,thetotalpercentageofindividualswithaccess
    toimprovedWSSdeclinedbetween2000and2008,
    butthenumberofurbanresidentswithaccesstotap
    waterareestimatedtohavegrownby400million
    (AquaFed,2010).
    Otherimprovementshavebeenmade,suchasin
    NorthernAfrica,South-EastAsia,EasternAsia,and
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,whereaccesstoim-
    provedwatersupplyandsanitationhassignicantlyin-
    creased(WHO/UNICEF,2010).However,upto50%of
    theurbanpopulationinAsiaoverallstilllacksadequate
    provisionofwater,andupto60%lacksadequatesani-
    tation(UN-Habitat,2010).Insub-SaharanAfrica,the
    numbersofurbandwellerswithoutaccesstotapwater
    hasincreasedby43%ineightyears.
    2.4.3Pressurefromurbanareasonwater
    Water withdrawals
    Relativetoothersectors,waterwithdrawalforurbanuse
    islow:industrial(includingenergy)useisaround20%,
    domesticuseisabout10%,andabstractionforagricul-
    tureisashighas70%globally(WWAP,2009).Increasing
    waterdemandsareleadingtoover-abstractionfrom
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    67 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    thefoodchain.Dischargeofuntreatedwastewater
    shiftsproblemstodownstreamareas.Incoastalareas,
    seagrassecosystems/habitatsaredamaged,andinva-
    sivespeciesareincreasinginestuarineecosystems.
    Theeconomicrecessionofthe1990scombinedwith
    declineinhighlypollutingindustriesledtoreduced
    dischargeofwastewaterandpollutantsinEastern
    Europe,relievingsomeofthepressureonriverqual-
    ityinmanyareas.Italsoresultedinthebreakdown
    ofwatersupplyandwastewatertreatmentsystems,
    andconsequentlyheavypollutionofriversanddrink-
    ingwatersuppliesindownstreamcitiesinindustrial
    andminingregions.Majorlossesofseagrasshabi-
    tatsoccurredinAustralia,FloridaBay(USA)and
    theMediterranean,whileincreasesoccurredinthe
    CaribbeanandSoutheastAsia(Chiramba,2010).
    Illegalandunreportedreleasesofuntreatedwastewa-
    tercontinuetobeanissueallovertheworld.Recently,
    forexample,thecityofRevere,Massachusettshas
    agreedtospendapproximatelyUS$50milliontore-
    duceillegaldischargesofrawsewageoverowsinto
    theenvironmentfromitswastewatercollectionsystem
    andseparatestormsewersystem,andtopayapen-
    altyofUS$130,000fortheCleanWaterActviolation
    (CTBR,2011)Corcoranetal.(2010)reportthatupto
    90%ofwastewaterindevelopingcountriesowsun-
    treatedintorivers,lakesandhighlyproductivecoastal
    zones,threateninghealth,foodsecurityandaccessto
    safedrinkingandbathingwater.
    2.4.4Watermanagementinurbanareas
    Integrated urban water management
    Watermanagementinurbanareascanbenetfrommore
    comprehensiveurbanplanningandintegratedurban
    watermanagement(IUWM).IUWMinvolvesmanaging
    freshwater,wastewaterandstormwateraslinkswithin
    theresourcemanagementstructure,usinganurbanarea
    astheunitofmanagement.Theobjectiveofsuchanap-
    proachistofacilitatethemulti-functionalnatureofurban
    waterservicesinordertooptimizetheoutcomesofthe
    systemasawhole.Theapproachencompassesvarious
    aspectsofwatermanagement,includingenvironmental,
    economic,technicalandpolitical,aswellassocialim-
    pactsandimplications.Issues,optionsandexamplesfor
    arid,semi-aridandhumidregionscanbefoundinTucci
    etal.(2010)andMays(2009).
    FIGURE 2.9
    Ratiooftreatedtountreatedwastewaterdischargedintowaterbodies
    Note: Ratio of wastewater treatment (March 2010).
    Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/ratio-of-wastewater-treatment1, adapted from a map by H. Alhenius with
    sources UNEP-GPA [2004]).
    Mediterranean
    Untreated
    Treated
    Caribbean
    Westand
    CentralAfrica
    Southern
    Asia
    East
    Asia
    CaspianSea
    CentralandEastEurope
    BalticSea
    North
    Atlantic
    Western
    Europe
    68
    Thecostofrehabilitationofwaterinfrastructureisin-
    creasingsubstantiallyduetotheirdeteriorationover
    theworld.IntheUSA,forexample,theAmerican
    SocietyofCivilEngineersforecastsafundinggap
    ofUS$108.6billionoverveyearsfordrinkingwater
    andwastewaterinfrastructuresystemimprovements
    andoperations(ASCE,2009).Anearlierstudy(Olson,
    2003)ofurbanwatersupplynetworksin19UScities
    revealedthatpollutionanddeteriorating,out-of-date
    plumbingaresometimesdeliveringdrinkingwaterthat
    mightposehealthriskstosomeresidents
    (NRDC,n.d.).
    Thedeteriorationprocessismoreseverefordevelop-
    ingcountries,duetopoorconstructionpractices,little
    ornomaintenanceandrehabilitationactivities,lackof
    records,andoperationathighercapacitiesthande-
    sign.Thewatersupplyservicessectorinsub-Saharan
    Africa,forexample,haslongsuferedfrompoorper-
    formanceofitspublicwaterutilities.Apartfromser-
    vicecoverageoflessthan60%(WHO/UNICEF,2006),
    otherproblemsthatplaguewaterutilitiesincludehigh
    unaccounted-forwater(UfW),whichoftenaverages
    between40%and60%,andoverstafng(Mwanza,
    2005).Moreover,serviceprovidersareoftencon-
    frontedwithnancialproblemsduetoacombination
    oflowtarifs,poorconsumerrecordsandinefcient
    billingandcollectionpractices(Foster,1996;Mwanza,
    2005;InternationalBankforReconstructionand
    Development/WorldBank,1994).
    Inaddition,theinformalsectoroftensupplieswaterto
    householdsandisunregulatedanddifculttomoni-
    tor.Thepoorestfamiliesinurbanareas,oftenlivingin
    informalsettlementslackingpublicservices,oftenend
    uppayingthemostfordrinkingwaterthatmaybe
    unsafe(Briscoe,1993;Jouravlev,2004;Garrido-Lecca,
    2010).Thehighestriskforhealthoccurswherethereis
    alackofbasicaccesstosafedrinkingwater(Howard
    andBartram,2003).Thesamefamiliesthatpurchase
    inexpensivedrinkingwaterfromstreetvendorsmay
    alsohavepoorerhygiene.AstudyinJakarta,forexam-
    ple,showedthat55%ofdrinkingwatersamplestaken
    fromhouseholdsintheslumsofeastJakartahadfae-
    calcontamination(Vollaardetal.,2004).
    Cities of the future
    Initiativesareemergingworldwidetoaddressthe
    needforimprovedandcomprehensiveurbanwa-
    terplanning,technologies,investmentandassoci-
    atedoperations.TheInternationalWaterAssociation
    Urban agriculture
    Urbanandperi-urbanagriculture(UPA)isthesafe
    productionofagricultureandcattleproductsinand
    aroundcities.UPAisestimatedtoinvolve800mil-
    lionurbanresidentsworldwide(Smitetal.,1996)and
    contributestosolvingseveralurbanizationproblems
    byenhancingfoodavailability,particularlyoffresh
    produce;providingemploymentandincreasingin-
    come,foodsecurityandnutritionofurbandwellers;
    andgreeningcitiesandalsorecyclingwastes.However,
    theseareascanusewateroflesserqualitythatcon-
    tainsnutrientsbenecialtoagriculturewhileprevent-
    ingpollutiondownstream.UNEPestimatesthatsew-
    agewaterirrigatesabouthalfthegardens,roadside
    vergesandsmalleldswherefoodisgrowninthe
    worldsurbanandperi-urbanareas.Anewlookisbe-
    ingtakenathowtousethistraditionalresourcesafely
    (Corcoranetal.,2010).
    Urbanfoodsecurityprojectsarebeingundertakenin
    largecitiesoftheMiddleEastandAfricawithlocal
    partners,includingwomensfarmersgroups.Forex-
    ample,inIstanbul,anurbanagricultureprojectsup-
    portsandtrainsunemployed,poorwomenofGrpinar
    todevelopurbanagriculturalactivities(e.g.compost-
    ing,processing,marketingandorganization)tohelp
    sustaintheminthefuture(ETCUrbanAgriculture,
    2011).AstudybyHovorkaetal.(2009)providesevi-
    dencefortheimportantrolewomenplayinhousehold
    foodproduction,growingvegetablesingardensand
    vacanturbanspaces,raisinganimals,andtradingin
    freshandcookedfoods.
    Infrastructure and maintenance
    Protecting [and nancing] the infrastructure used
    to treat and transport water (including sources,
    treatment plants and distribution systems) is an im-
    portant step in ensuring safety in public health and
    the environment. However, in most cities worldwide,
    there has been years of neglected maintenance to
    water storage, treatment and distribution systems.
    A large proportion of this infrastructure is over
    100 years old, placing it at increased risk for leaks,
    blockages and malfunctions due to deterioration
    (Vahala, 2004). Higher rates of water leakage mean
    greater water losses and higher chances of inltra-
    tion and ex-ltration of water. This will create higher
    chances of drinking water contamination and out-
    break of water-borne diseases. (Vairavamoorthy,
    2008, p. 5)
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    69 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    the water requirements to sustain or restore the ben-
    ets for people (services) that we want ecosystems
    to supply. Better-integrated water management and
    more sustainable development require the focusing
    of greater attention on ways to resolve the increasing
    competition for water between ecosystems and socio-
    economic sectors.
    Humanversusenvironmentorecosystemdemands
    forwaterhavebeenthesubjectofdebatefordec-
    ades.Arootcauseofearlydisagreementhasbeenthe
    perceptionthatthesearesomehowdiferentsubjects,
    therebypromotingconictsbetweendevelopment
    andenvironmentornatureconservationinterests.Over
    recentyears,therehasbeenbetterconvergenceof
    interestthroughimprovedrecognitionthatthewa-
    terusedtomaintaintheenvironment,orecosystem
    integrity,isinfactalsoameanstosupporthuman
    needsthroughsustainingthebenetstopeoplethata
    healthyecosystemdelivers.Suchbenetsaretermed
    ecosystemservices(Box2.2).
    Ecosystemsincluding,forexample,forests,wetlands
    andgrasslandcomponentslieattheheartofthe
    globalwatercycle.Allfreshwaterultimatelydepends
    onthecontinuedhealthyfunctioningofecosystems,
    andrecognizingthewatercycleasabiophysicalpro-
    cessisessentialtoachievingsustainablewaterman-
    agement(Figure2.10).
    Historically,somehaveregardedecosystemsasanun-
    productiveuserofwater.Thisisfundamentallyincor-
    rectasecosystemsdonotusewatertheyrecycleit.
    Butperceptionsareshiftingtowardsmanaginghuman
    interactionswithecosystems(theenvironment)inor-
    dertosupportwater-relateddevelopmentgoals.
    Allterrestrialecosystemservices,suchasfoodproduc-
    tion,climateregulation,soilfertilityandfunctions,car-
    bonstorageandnutrientrecycling,areunderpinned
    bywater,asare,ofcourse,allaquaticecosystemser-
    vices.Wateravailabilityandquality,intermsofdirect
    usebyhumans,arealsoecosystemservices,asarethe
    benetsecosystemsofertomitigatetheextremesof
    droughtandood.Mostecosystemservicesareinter-
    related,andparticularlysothroughwater.Decisions
    thatfavourincreasingoneserviceover,orattheex-
    penseof,anotherthereforeinevitablyinvolvetrade-
    ofs.Importantly,thistradingbetweenecosystemser-
    vicescanalsocarrywithitthetransferofrisksthrough
    associatedecosystemchanges.Someexamplesof
    suchtrade-ofsareprovidedinSection8.3.
    (IWA),forexample,haslaunchedtheCitiesofthe
    Futureprogramme,whichfocusesonwatersecurity
    fortheworldscities,andhowthedesignofcities
    includingthewatermanagement,treatmentandde-
    liverysystemsthatservethemcouldbeharmonized
    andre-engineeredtominimizetheuseofscarce
    naturalresources,andincreasethecoverageofwater
    andsanitationinlowerandmiddle-incomecountries.
    TheIstanbulWaterConsensusforLocalandRegional
    Authorities,endorsedin2009duringthefthWorld
    WaterForuminIstanbul,isalocalandregionalgov-
    ernmentdeclarationthataskssignatorycitiesto
    committodevelopingwatermanagementstrategies
    suitabletoworktowardstheMillenniumDevelopment
    Goals(MDGs);andtoaddressurbanization,climate
    changeandotherglobalpressuresatlocallevel.At
    thenationallevelanexamplecomesfromahighlyur-
    banizednation,Australia,wherethegovernmenthas
    recentlyre-evaluatedtheurbanwatersectorwithin
    theframeworkoftheNationalWaterInitiative,and
    hasidentiedreformsandchangesinpolicyand
    institutionalsettings(NationalWaterCommission,
    2011).
    Watermanagementtogetherwithland-useplanning
    forurbanareaswillneedtobecomemoreefcientto
    meetcurrentandgrowingdemandthroughtechnol-
    ogy,investment,andcomprehensiveandintegrat-
    edplanningformultipleusers.Watereducationcan
    playaveryimportantroleinthisregardbychang-
    ingbehaviourandattitudesinwidersociety.The
    HumanValues-BasedApproachtoWater,Sanitation
    andHygieneEducationpromotedbyUN-Habitatisa
    provenapproachthatcanbeincorporatedintocurrent
    educationalcurriculawithoutimposingaheavyburden
    onteachersandlearners.
    Investingindrinkingwatersupplyandsanitationsys-
    tems,promotingefciencyinserviceprovision,provid-
    ingsubsidiesforthepoorandprotectingwaterresourc-
    esfrompollutionandover-extractionareimperativeto
    ensuringaccesstosafewaterforall,particularlypoor
    urbanpopulationswhoaretoooftenleftbehind.
    2.5Ecosystems
    Ecosystems underpin the availability of water, includ-
    ing its extremes of drought and ood, and its quality.
    Water management often involves trade-ofs and
    often the transfer of risks between ecosystem ser-
    vices. Water demand by ecosystems is determined by
    70
    Thesubjectofwaterdemandbyecosystemstherefore
    involvesidentifyingecosystemdeliverablesandman-
    agingwateraccordingly.Thevaluationoftheseservices
    iscentraltothis,andtheadvancesmadeoverthepast
    20yearsprovidearangeoftechniquesthatcanbeused
    inpractice.Evenformanyterrestrialecosystems(such
    asforests),valuesrelatedtowaterservicesoutstrip
    moreconspicuousbenets(suchastimberproducts
    andcarbonstorage).Forexample,thewater-related
    servicesprovidedbytropicalforestsincluderegulation
    ofwaterows,wastetreatment/waterpuricationand
    erosionprevention.Thesecollectivelyaccountforaval-
    ueofuptoUS$7,236perhaperyearmorethan44%
    ofthetotalvalueofforests,exceedingthecombined
    valueofcarbonstorage,food,rawmaterials(timber),
    andrecreationandtourismservices(TEEB,2009).
    Comprehensivevaluationofecosystemservicesisnot
    yetaprecisescience,buttheprocessilluminatesthe
    potentialstakesandprovidesgoodcomparativeindica-
    tionsofwhereprioritiesshouldlie(seeChapters21and
    23forfurtherinformationonvaluingecosystemservic-
    es).Whilesomeservicesaredifculttovalue,othersare
    easierbecauseinformationonhowmuchtheirlosses
    costisavailable.Averylargeproportionofthecapital
    investmentandoperationalcostofphysicalwaterinfra-
    structureisinefectexpenditurethatcompensatesfor
    thelossofanecosystemservice,whichcantherefore
    Biodiversityisalsosometimesregardedasanecosys-
    temserviceasitdoeshavedirectvalue(i.e.cultural/
    aesthetic/recreationalbenet,existencevalue);how-
    ever,itismorewidelyregardedasunderpinningthe
    functioningofecosystemsandthereforetheirabilityto
    continuetosustainservicedelivery(Box2.3).
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    BOX 2.2
    Waterandecosystemservices
    Source: Adapted from Ecosystem Services (2011, Crown Copyright).
    Ecosystemservices(benetsforpeople)canbegrouped
    invariousways.TheMillenniumEcosystemAssessment
    hasprovidedthemostcomprehensiveassessmentofthe
    stateoftheglobalenvironmenttodate,andhasclassied
    ecosystemservicesasfollows:
    Supportingservices:Theservicesnecessaryforthepro-
    ductionofallotherecosystemservices.Supportingser-
    vicesincludesoilformation,photosynthesis,primarypro-
    duction,nutrientcyclingandwatercycling.
    Provisioningservices:Theproductsobtainedfromeco-
    systems,includingfood,bre,fuel,geneticresources,bio-
    chemicals,naturalmedicines,pharmaceuticals,ornamen-
    talresourcesandfreshwater.
    Regulatingservices:Thebenetsobtainedfromthe
    regulationofecosystemprocesses,includingairquality
    regulation,climateregulation,waterregulation,erosion
    regulation,waterpurication,diseaseregulation,pestreg-
    ulation,pollinationandnaturalhazardregulation(includ-
    ingextremesinwateravailability).
    Culturalservices:Thenon-materialbenetspeopleobtain
    fromecosystemsthroughspiritualenrichment,cognitive
    development,reection,recreationandaestheticexpe-
    riences,therebytakingaccountoflandscape(including
    waterscape)values.
    Waterismulti-dimensionalinthecontextofecosystem
    services.Itsavailabilityandqualityareproducts(services)
    providedbyecosystems.Butwateralsoinuenceshow
    ecosystemscanfunctionandthereforeunderpinsallother
    ecosystemservices.Thisgiveswaterparamountimpor-
    tanceinmanagingecosystemssoastodeliverbenetsto
    people.
    TheMillenniumEcosystemAssessmentconcludedthathu-
    mandevelopmenthadtendedtopromotecertainservices
    (especiallyprovisioningservices)attheexpenseofothers.
    Thishasledtoanimbalanceinservicesandindicatesa
    pathtowardsdecreasingsustainability.
    BOX 2.3
    Biodiversityincreasesecosystemefciency
    Source: Cardinale (2011).
    Controllingnutrientlevelsinwatershedsisaprimary
    objectiveofmostwatermanagementpolicies.Muchre-
    searchhasshownthatecosystemswithmorespeciesare
    moreefcientatremovingnutrientsfromsoilandwater
    thanecosystemswithfewerspecies.Recentexperiments
    havedemonstrated,forexample,thatdiferentformsof
    algaedominateeachuniquehabitatinastream,andthe
    morediversecommunitiesachievedahigherbiomass
    andgreaternitrogenuptake.Whenhabitatdiversitywas
    experimentallyremoved,thesebiolmscollapsedtoa
    singledominantspeciesandnutrientcyclingefciency
    decreased.Maintainingboththephysical(habitat)and
    biologicaldiversityofstreamsthereforehelpstobufer
    ecosystemsagainstnutrientpollution,demonstratingthat
    theconservationofbiodiversityisausefultoolformanag-
    ingnutrientuptakeandstorage.
    71 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    functioningisenvironmentalorminimumow.The
    approachoriginatesfromtheconsiderationofows
    requiredtomaintainthelifecyclesofbiodiversityin
    rivers,asusedmostfrequentlyinrelationtowateral-
    locationandthedesignandoperationofwaterinfra-
    structuresuchaslargedams.Butinthepastdecadeor
    so,theconceptofenvironmentalow,andthescience
    underpinningit,hasshiftedtowardsincludingsocio-
    economicconsiderationsbyassessingrequirements
    tomaintainorrestorethedesiredlevelsofecosystem
    servicesinagivenarea(Box2.5).Theapproachis
    thereforebecomingamorepowerfuldecisionsup-
    porttool.Itsfullapplicationwouldconsidernotonly
    surfacewaterows,butbroaderecosystemows(e.g.
    consideringmanagingevapotranspiration,soilmois-
    tureandgroundwater,asperFigure2.10),andasa
    beusedtoindicatethevalueofthatservice.Theclassic
    exampleiswaterqualitywhereby,withveryfewexcep-
    tions,healthyecosystemsdelivercleanwaterandany
    subsequentinvestmentintreatingahuman-induced
    waterqualityproblemcanbeattributedtothelossof
    thisecosystemserviceoriginallyprovidedforfree.
    Waterdemandbyecosystems,toalargeextent,can
    thereforebeassessedbasedonsocio-economiccrite-
    ria,asforanyotheruse.Indeed,allowingwatertoun-
    derpinecosystemhealthandthereforeservicedelivery
    canresultinneteconomicgains,orcostsavings,very
    visibleonnancialbalancesheets(Box2.4).
    Anincreasinglyusefulhydro-ecologicalexpressionfor
    thequantityofwaterneededforhealthyecosystem
    FIGURE 2.10
    Asimpliedconceptualframeworkillustratingtheroleofecosystemsinthewatercycle
    Note: The gure lists in blue some of the water-related ecosystem services provided and underpinned. In reality the various services illustrated,
    and others, are more dispersed, interconnected and impacted by land and water-use activities (not shown in full).
    Source: Adapted from MRC (2003).
    Surface water ow
    and sediment
    formation and
    transfer
    Mitigation of
    ooding
    (disaster risk
    reduction)
    Groundw water
    recharge e and
    quality
    al Regulating coasta
    ecosystem
    functions nt nutrien
    transfer/cycling
    sediment transfer
    nd (land formation an
    n, coastal protection
    disaster risk
    al reduction), coasta
    sheries
    Mitigation of ooding
    in downstream areas
    (disaster risk
    reduction)
    er Surface wate
    and availability a
    quality
    imate regulation Cli on
    vapotranspiration rates ev
    om soils and vegetation fro
    pporting humidity and su
    infall patterns rai
    uction Food produ
    water (e.g. crop w
    nts) requiremen
    Hydropower
    Soil moisture
    (soil services)
    n water Clean
    king (drin
    er supply) wate
    ion Sanitati
    t cycling nutrient
    Cultural services
    (e.g. recreational shing)
    e
    r
    e
    r
    g
    r
    o
    u
    n
    d
    w
    a
    t
    e
    r
    72
    asdrivenbysectors,andaworsefailing,inmany
    cases,hasbeentodisregardthesustainablesupply.
    Unsurprisingly,thishasledtoconict,crisis,overuse
    andenvironmentaldegradation.Butapproachesare
    evolving,andtheroleoftheecosysteminsustain-
    ingwatersupplyisbecomingincreasinglyrecognized.
    Furthermore,asdescribedfurtherinSection8.3,anew
    paradigmisemerging,whichshiftsunderstandingof
    theecosystem(environment)asanunfortunatebut
    necessarycostofdevelopmenttoanintegralpartof
    developmentsolutions.
    Ecosystemsareincreasinglyseenassolutionstowater
    problems,notjustasacasualty.Thechangeinpercep-
    tionofecosystemsasjustanotherdemandsectoris
    theresultofincreasingrecognitionoftheservicesthey
    deliver,theirvalueandanincreasingwillingness,ifnot
    necessity,tosustainthem.Inpractice,thishasinevita-
    blyledtoeverincreasingcompetitionbetween,and
    debateabout,theneedsofsectorsandtheecosys-
    tem.Butthisisawelcomeandpositivetrendasitalso
    reectsimprovementindialogueandasteptowards
    better-integratedwaterresourcesmanagement,and
    thereforemoresustainabledevelopment.
    quantitativetooltoassistmoreholisticapproaches
    withinintegratedwaterresourcesmanagement(IWRM).
    Oneofthebiggesthistoricalfailingsofwaterman-
    agementhasbeentobaseallocationsondemand
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    BOX 2.4
    Rethinkingecosystemwaterdemandusingan
    ecosystemservicesframework:Disasterrisktransfer
    andmitigationintheMississippiDelta,USA
    Source: Batker et al. (2010).
    Riverdeltasaredynamicandcomplexecosystemsdriven
    largelybyhydrology,includingtheregulartransferof
    sedimentsandnutrientsfromthecatchmentintolow-
    landsandtheestuary.Theirfunctioningunderpinsnu-
    merousecosystemservices,inparticularlandregulation
    andformation.Thisinturndeliversbenetsthroughthe
    maintenanceofcoastalstabilityanderosionregulation,
    thereby,forexample,reducingdisastervulnerability.The
    MississippiRiverDelta,incommonwithmanyrivers,has
    beenhighlymodied:itshydrologyhasbeenchanged
    throughwaterabstraction,principallyforagriculture,
    whilereservoirconstruction,alsoforhydropower,has
    interruptedsedimenttransfer.Theresultingdegradation
    ofassociatedwetlandsservicesisbecomingregarded
    bysomeasamajorcontributingfactortothescaleof
    economicandhumanlossesresultingfromhurricanes.
    Iftreatedasaneconomicasset,thedeltasminimumas-
    setvaluewouldbeUS$330billiontoUS$1.3trillion(at
    2007values)intermsofhurricaneandoodprotec-
    tion,watersupply,waterquality,recreationandsheries.
    Rehabilitationandrestorationofthisnaturalinfrastruc-
    turewouldhaveanestimatednetbenetofUS$62billion
    annually.Thisincludesreduceddisasterriskvulnerability
    andsavingsincapitalandoperationalcostsforphysical
    infrastructure-basedsolutions(factoringintheeconomic
    costsonexistingusersofreallocatingwateruse).
    Agriculturehasbeenakeydriverofwaterallocationpoli-
    cy.Yetthevalueoffood,breandfeedproducedbyagri-
    culturerepresentsonlyafractionofthemultitudeofother
    servicesprovidedbytheecosystem,particularlywetlands.
    Historically,waterdevelopmentpolicyfortheMississippi
    hasefectivelytradedincreasedagriculturalproduction
    forotherecosystemservicesinthedelta,andwithsigni-
    cantnetoveralleconomiclosswhenviewedholistically.
    Inthecontextofuncertaintyandrisk,historyshowsthat
    thereductionofriskstoagriculture(i.e.morestablecrop
    watersupply)resultedinthetransferandamplicationof
    risksdownstream,amplydemonstratedbytheimpactof
    hurricaneKatrinaonNewOrleansin2005.
    BOX 2.5
    TheMekongRiverBasin,South-EastAsia
    Note: For further information, see MRC (2011). For further
    information about environmental ows, including 22 diferent case
    studies, see Le Quesne et al. (2010).
    The text cited in the box is drawn from the Mekong River
    Agreement, signed by the four countries in 1995. The agreement can
    be found here: http://www.mrcmekong.org/assets/Publications/
    agreements/agreement-Apr95.pdf
    TheMekongRiverAgreement,signedin1995between
    Cambodia,LaoPDR,ThailandandVietNam,established
    theMekongRiverCommission,andspecicallyrequires
    minimumstreamowsofnotlessthantheacceptable
    minimummonthlynaturalowduringeachmonthof
    thedryseason(MekongRiverAgreement1995,Article
    6,pointA).AnIntegratedBasinFlowManagement
    Programmehasbeenundertakensince2004tosupport
    discussionsbetweenthegovernmentsonsustainablede-
    velopmentandreasonableandequitabletransboundary
    sharingofbenecialuses.Theprocessessentiallyinvolves
    assessmentofecosystemservicesandtherelationships
    betweenthemasilluminatedbyenvironmentalows,
    considerationofwaterdemandasrequiredtoachieve
    agreedmultipleuses,andrecognitionandagreementon
    relevanttrade-ofs.
    73 WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
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    Notes
    1 Fordetailedreportsconcerningthecoverageofwatersupply
    andsanitationservicesandprogresstowardstheMillennium
    DevelopmentGoal(MDG)relatingtodrinkingwaterand
    sanitation(MDG7,Target7c),seethelatestreportsfromthe
    JointMonitoringProgramme(JMP)forWaterSupplyand
    Sanitation(WHO/UNICEF)athttp://www.wssinfo.organdthe
    GlobalAnalysisandAssessmentofSanitationandDrinking-
    Water(GLAAS)(UN-Water/WHO)at
    http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/glaas.
    2 SouthAfricahasnowbeenaddedtothislistandthepresent
    abbreviationisBRICS(notBRIC).However,theearlier
    designationisusedinthispassagebecausethestatistical
    informationheredoesnotincludeSouthAfrica.
    3 IEA(2006)statesthat,takingintoaccountveryrapid
    technologicalprogress,thehighergurecouldbe26,200
    milliontonnesofoilequivalentinsteadof12,000.However,IEA
    alsoindicatesthatamorerealisticassessmentbasedonslower
    yieldimprovementswouldbe6,00012,000.Amid-range
    estimateofaround9,500wouldrequireaboutone-fthofthe
    worldsagriculturallandtobededicatedtobiomassproduction.
    4 TheBaselConventionontheControlofTransboundary
    MovementsofHazardousWastesandtheirDisposalisthemost
    comprehensiveglobalenvironmentalagreementonhazardous
    andotherwastes.TheConventionhas175Partiesandaims
    toprotecthumanhealthandtheenvironmentagainstthe
    adverseefectsresultingfromthegeneration,management,
    transboundarymovementsanddisposalofhazardousandother
    wastes.TheBaselConventioncameintoforcein1992.
    5 Theecologicalorsocialimpactofawaterfootprintobviously
    dependsnotonlyonthevolumeofwateruse,butalsoon
    whereandwhenthewaterisused.
    6 Thecradle-to-cradleapproachisbasedonalife-cycleor
    ecosystemviewthataimsnotjusttoreducethenegative
    impactsofindustryandgrowth,buttocreateequalorpositive
    environmentalandsocialfootprints.Cradle-to-cradleproducts
    aredesignedtobecompletelywaste-free,usingrenewable
    sourcesofenergyintheirproductionandensuringwaterand
    energyefciencyintheiruse.

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    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER2
    77 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    CHAPTER 3
    The water resource: Variability,
    vulnerability and uncertainty
    Shutterstock/LukasHlavac

    Authors RajagopalanBalaji,RichardConnor,PaulGlennie,JacvanderGun,
    GarethJamesLloydandGordonYoung
    Contributor TarendraLakhankar

    Past editions of the World Water Development Report (WWDR) have addressed the state
    of the worlds water resources in diferent but complementary ways. WWDR1 reported on
    long-term averages and general patterns of water availability through diferent elements of
    the hydrological cycle at the global scale. WWDR2 added a greater focus to the dimension
    of variability in the distribution of water resources over space and through time, also
    describing some of the main human impacts in terms of the quantity and quality of the
    resource. WWDR3 explored the relationship between the water cycle and other global
    biogeochemical cycles, observational evidence of the impacts of climate change on the
    water cycle, and the need for increased observation and monitoring.
    This chapter builds on the information provided in previous WWDR editions, focusing now
    on specic elements that had not received detailed coverage in the series. In an efort to
    better understand variability in the resource and the origins of the related uncertainties, this
    chapter opens with a description of the external stressors on water resources as sources
    of uncertainty in the hydrological cycle, including the complex, inter-related ensemble of
    dynamic natural processes, such as the El Nio-Southern Oscillation, which scientists refer to
    as climate forcings. The chapter then focuses on long-term natural storage via two specic
    but often overlooked or misunderstood elements of the hydrological cycle groundwater
    and glaciers in terms of their benets and vulnerabilities. The chapter concludes with a
    section describing how water quality and quantity are inextricably linked key elements of
    water availability, adding yet another layer of uncertainty and complexity to understanding
    and addressing water supply and availability issues.
    With the exception of the subsection on glaciers, which is original to Part 1, the material in
    this chapter has been condensed from the challenge area reports (Part 3/Volume 2) State of
    the resource: Quantity (Chapter 15) and State of the resource: Quality (Chapter 16) as well
    as the special report on Groundwater (Chapter 36).
    79
    developmentandmanagement(seeChapter4,
    Section4.6.1).
    Understandingthespatialandtemporaldistribution
    andmovementofwateriscrucialforefcientwater
    resourcesmanagement.Waterresourcemanagement
    plansandpoliciesmusttakeintoaccountthisvariabil-
    ityanddistributionoffreshwatersupplies.
    Thehydrologicalcycleisdrivenbyacomplex,inter-
    relatedensembleofdynamicnaturalprocesses,which
    scientistsrefertoasclimateforcings.TheEarthstilt
    androtationaroundtheSunareamongtheprimary
    driversofseasonalvariationsinprecipitationandwa-
    teravailability.Atmosphericandoceaniccirculation
    patternsandtheirinteractionsareequallyimportant
    driversofweather,climateandthehydrologicalcycle.
    Abetterunderstandingofthesephenomena(e.g.the
    ElNio-SouthernOscillation)andtheteleconnec-
    tions
    2
    amongdiferentdriverscanenhancepredictive
    capabilityinmanyregions.
    Humansareintheprocessofalteringtheearthscli-
    mateandbyinferencetheglobalpatternsinthecircu-
    lationofmoisture.Signicantcontroloverthispartof
    3.1Thehydrologicalcycle,external
    stressorsonwaterresources,andsourcesof
    uncertainty
    Precipitationdeliverswaterunevenlyovertheplanet
    fromoneyeartothenext.Therecanbeconsiderable
    variabilitybetweenaridandhumidclimatesandwet
    anddryseasons.Asaresult,distributionoffreshwa-
    tersuppliescanbeerraticwithdiferentcountriesand
    regionsreceivingdiferentquantitiesofwateroverany
    givenyear.
    Theaveragetotalannualrenewablewaterresourc-
    es(TARWR)availabletoeachcountry(Figure3.1)
    providesanoverviewofthisgeographicalvariability.
    Clearly,somecountrieshavemorewaterthanothers.
    However,suchameasureisimprecisesinceacoun-
    tryssizecansignicantlyinuencemuchofthevari-
    ationbetweendiferentcountries.Itisoftentherefore
    moreusefultoconsiderthetotalwateravailableper
    person(Figure3.2),whichcanprovideamoreap-
    propriateindicationofwateravailabilityforsocialor
    economicpurposes.
    1
    Itshouldbenoted,however,that
    tropicalcountriesinAsiaandAfricawiththehighest
    populationshavelowavailabilityoffreshwater.This
    posesaseriouschallengetofuturewaterresources
    WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY
    FIGURE 3.1
    Totalannualrenewablewaterresources(TARWR)bycountrymostrecentestimates(19852010)
    Source: FAO AQUASTAT database (http://www.fao.org/nr/aquastat, accessed in 2011).
    1%
    71%
    3
    Natural TARWR
    km3 per year
    0-50
    51-100
    101-200
    201-500
    501-1,000
    1,001-5,000
    5,001-10,000
    80
    Changesintheseasonality(ortiming)ofows,espe-
    ciallyinsnowmeltbasins
    Changesinowsfromglaciersduetotheirretreat
    Decreasingsnowandpermafrost
    Groundwaterdepletionlosingthebuferagainst
    rainfallvariability
    Changesinsoilmoisture
    Thestateofwaterresourcesisalsoinuencedby
    withdrawalstomeetsocio-economicdemands.These
    areinturninuencedbypopulationgrowth,eco-
    nomicdevelopmentanddietarychanges,aswellas
    bycontrolmeasuresexertedtoprotectsettlements
    inoodplainsanddrought-proneregions.These
    changeforcesandpossibledevelopmentsarede-
    scribedinChapter9.Thesesourcesofchangeand
    theinteractionsbetweenthemcreateanewlevelof
    uncertaintyassociatedwiththeuseandavailabilityof
    waterresourcesinadditiontoexistinguncertainties
    relatedtotheearthsclimatesystemandhydrological
    cycle.Asaresult,itisnolongerpossibletoassume
    thatthefuturehydrologicalrecordwillfollowthe
    courseofthehistoricalrecord.
    thehydrologicalcycleisnotpossible,buthumansdo
    haveasignicantimpactonothercomponentsofthe
    cycle.Someinterventionsaredeliberate,suchasmodi-
    fyingrunofthroughstorageandinter-basintransfers.
    Theformerimpactsoodsanddroughtstoensure
    waterisavailablewhenneededanddamageisaverted
    orminimizedwhenthereisanexcess;thelatterbrings
    watertowhereitisneeded.Otherinterventionssuch
    aschanginglandsurfacesforurbansettlementsor
    agriculturecanseverelyalterthehydrologicalcycle
    throughchangesininltration,runofandevapotran-
    spirationrates.
    Thestateofwaterresourcesisoneofconstantchange,
    resultingfromthenaturalvariabilityoftheearthscli-
    matesystemandtheanthropogenicalterationofthat
    systemandthelandsurfacethroughwhichthehydro-
    logicalcycleismodulated.Specicchangestowater
    resourcesandthehydrologicalcycleinclude:
    Changesinmeansurfaceowsduetonaturalcli-
    matevariabilityatinterannualandmultidecadaltime
    scalesandclimatechange
    Increasedoodpotentialduetoclimatechange
    Increasedlossesduetotemperatureincrease
    CHAPTER3 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES
    FIGURE 3.2
    Percapitatotalannualrenewablewaterresources(TARWR)bycountrypopulationdatafrom2009
    Source: FAO AQUASTAT database (http://www.fao.org/nr/aquastat, accessed in 2011).
    1%
    71%
    3
    Actual TARWR
    m3 per year per capita
    7-500
    501-1,000
    1,001-2,000
    2,001-5,000
    5,001-10,000
    10,001-20,000
    >20,000
    81
    ENSO
    TheElNio-SouthernOscillationisacoupledocean-
    atmosphericphenomenoninthetropicalPacicOcean
    andthedominantdriverofglobalclimateatseasonal
    tointerannualtimescales.Warmwatersintheequato-
    rialwesternPacicOceanshifttothecentralandeast-
    ernregionperiodicallyoverathreetoeight-yeartime
    scale(Figure3.3).Asanimmediateconsequence,trop-
    icalwesternPacicregionsandNorthernAustralian
    regionsseeareductioninrainfallandtropicaleast-
    ernpartsofSouthAmericaseeanincreaseinrain-
    fall.TheseconvectionchangesinthetropicalPacic
    triggerteleconnectionresponsestootherpartsofthe
    world(Figure3.4),especiallySouthandSouth-East
    AsiaandAfrica.Thesechangesalsoimpacttheloca-
    tionandstrengthofthemid-latitudejetstreamand
    consequentlytheweatheroverNorthAmerica.There
    hasbeenextensivedocumentationofENSOimpacts
    onprecipitation,temperature,hurricanesandtropical
    cyclones,ecosystems,agriculture,waterresourcesand
    publichealtharoundtheworld,especiallyfromthe
    tropicalcountrieswheremostoftheworldspopula-
    tionreside.Figures3.4,3.5and3.6showtheENSO
    schematic,globalteleconnectionsandmid-latitudejet
    streamshifts.
    UnderstandingtheENSOteleconnectionsalonecan
    providesignicantpredictivecapabilityinmanyplaces.
    Theseefortshavereceivedasignicantboostsince
    themid-1990swithongoingobservationofthetropi-
    calPacicOcean,whichhasledtoskilfullong-lead
    ENSOpredictionsofimmensevaluetosociety.The
    NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration
    (NOAA)hascreatedadedicatedsiteonElNio
    3

    thatprovidesinformationonENSOmonitoringand
    3.1.1Driversofglobalclimateandhydrological
    variability
    Watermovementonspatialandtemporalscalesover
    theglobeplaysacrucialroleincreatingareasofabun-
    danceandscarcity.Itisincreasinglyevidentthatafew
    large-scaleclimatedriversorchestratethismovement:
    theElNio-SouthernOscillation(ENSO),thePacic
    DecadalOscillation(PDO),theNorthAtlanticOscillation
    (NAO)andtheAtlanticMultidecadalOscillation(AMO).
    Increasedunderstandingofthesedrivershasledtotheir
    useininterannualpredictionsofhydrologyandclimate
    andefcientresourceplanning.Thefollowingsections
    brieydescribeENSO,PDOandNAO.
    WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY
    FIGURE 3.3
    SchematicofnormalandElNioconditionsinthe
    tropicalPacicOcean
    Source: NOAA/PMEL/TAO (n.d.).
    Equator
    80W
    Normal Conditions
    Thermocline
    120E
    Convective
    Circulation
    El Nio Conditions
    Equator
    120E 80W
    Thermocline
    It is no longer possible
    to assume that the
    future hydrological
    record will follow the
    course of the historical
    record.
    82
    resemblesthatofENSO,butisslightlybroader;fur-
    thermore,itsindexdemonstratesadistinctvariabil-
    ityoveradecadaltimescale.PDOhasbeenshownto
    impactsheriesinthenorth-westernUnitedStates
    ofAmerica(USA),andthereisagrowingbodyoflit-
    eraturethatidentiesitsimpactsonhydrologyand
    extremeeventssuchasdroughts,focusinginparticu-
    laronthesameregion.Figure3.4showsthespatial
    predictioneforts,andcompileslinksonimpactsas
    wellasnumerousreferences.
    PDO
    ThePacicDecadalOscillationismanifestedinthe
    large-scaleseasurfacetemperaturepatternpredomi-
    nantintheNorthernPacicregion,butalsoincludes
    participationfromthetropicalPacic.Thepattern
    CHAPTER3 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES
    FIGURE 3.4
    ImpactsofElNioonglobalclimateduringnorthernhemispheresummerandwinterseasons
    Note: The La Nia impacts are quite symmetric. Notice that ENSO impacts rainfall and temperature especially in the developing countries in
    the tropics.
    Source: NOAA/PMEL/TAO (n.d.).
    00 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 W
    NorthernHemisphereSummer
    60N
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    EQ
    10S
    20
    30
    40
    50
    00 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 W
    60N
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    EQ
    10S
    20
    30
    40
    50
    NorthernHemisphereWinter
    83
    Other drivers
    Otherclimatedriversthatthatdrivetheglobalcli-
    mateandhydrologyatmulti-decadaltimescales
    arebeingstudied.TheseincludetheAtlanticMulti
    DecadalOscillation(AMO)andtheAtlanticMeridional
    OverturningCirculation(AMOC)linkedwiththether-
    mohalinecirculationofwhichtheGulfStreamisanin-
    tegralcomponent.
    6

    3.2Thevulnerabilityofnaturallong-term
    storage:Groundwaterandglaciers
    3.2.1Groundwater:Aresilientresourceintransition
    The changing role of groundwater in the world
    Unlikesurfacewater,whichhasbeenintensivelyde-
    velopedinmanypartsoftheworldforthousands
    ofyears,groundwaterhasremaineduntillessthan
    acenturyagoarathersparselydevelopedresource.
    However,duringthetwentiethcentury,anunprece-
    dentedsilentrevolution(LlamasandMartnez-Santos,
    2005)ingroundwaterabstractiontookplaceacross
    theglobe.Thisboomwasdrivenbypopulationgrowth
    patternandtimeseriesofthisphenomena.TheJoint
    InstitutefortheStudyoftheAtmosphereandOcean
    (JISAO)hasasitethatprovidessubstantialdetailson
    PDO:data,impactsandbibliography.
    4

    NAO
    TheNorthAtlanticOscillationisaclimatedriverin
    theNorthAtlanticregionandfunctionsasanatmos-
    phericfeaturemainlyinthewinterseason.Itischar-
    acterizedbythelocationandstrengthofsubtropi-
    calhigh-pressureandsubpolarlow-pressurecentres
    intheNorthAtlantic(Figure3.5).Thelocationand
    strengthofthesepressurecentressteerthejetstream
    andthestormtracksandconsequentlytheregional
    climateandhydrology.TheroleofNAOinmodulat-
    ingEuropeanandNorthAmericanclimatehaslong
    beenknown,butthephysicalmechanismanditsrole
    inmodulatingseasurfacetemperaturesarethesubject
    ofintensestudy.Recentstudieshavealsoidentied
    NAOtobepartofahemisphericalwideseriesofpres-
    surecentresnamedtheArcticOscillation(AO).This
    hasadecadaltimescaleofvariability.
    5

    WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY
    FIGURE 3.5
    SpatialpatternandtimeindexofPDOandElNio
    Source: JISAO (2000).
    MonthlyElNio3.4indexvalues
    MonthlyPDOindexvalues
    PacicDecadalOscillation ElNio-SouthernOscillation
    0.8
    0.4
    0.2
    0.0
    -0.2
    -0.6
    1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
    1
    2
    0
    -2
    -1
    1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
    1
    2
    0
    -2
    -1
    84
    Villholth,2007),signicantlyboostingfoodproduction
    andruraldevelopment.Theuseofgroundwaterhas
    alsoconsiderablymodiedlocalandglobalwatercy-
    cles,environmentalconditionsandecosystems.
    Asof2010theworldsaggregatedgroundwaterab-
    stractionisestimatedatapproximately1,000km
    3
    per
    yearabout67%ofwhichisusedforirrigation,22%
    fordomesticpurposes,and11%forindustrialpurpos-
    es(AQUASTAT,2011;EUROSTAT,2011;IGRAC,2010;
    Margat,2008;Siebertetal.,2010).
    7
    Figure3.7shows
    andtheassociatedincreasingdemandforwater,food
    andincome,andfacilitatedbyknowledge,technology
    andaccesstofunding.Intensivegroundwaterabstrac-
    tionbeganinthersthalfofthetwentiethcenturyin
    alimitednumberofcountriesincludingItaly,Mexico,
    SpainandtheUSA,andthenexpandedworldwide
    sincethe1960s(ComprehensiveAssessmentofWater
    ManagementinAgriculture,2007).Thisfundamentally
    changedtheroleofgroundwaterinhumansociety,in
    particularintheirrigationsectorwhereittriggered
    anagriculturalgroundwaterrevolution(Giordanoand
    CHAPTER3 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES
    FIGURE 3.6
    NAOspatialpatternanditsimpactonthemid-latitudejetstreamanditsimpactsonclimateoverNorth
    AmericaandWesternEurope
    Source: AIRMAP (n.d., g.4) (J. Bradbury and C. Wake).
    Positive
    Mode
    Negative
    Mode
    Coldandmore
    seaice
    Cool
    anddry
    Warm
    andwet
    Warm
    andwet
    Cold
    anddry
    Coldand
    snowy
    Warmandless
    seaice
    Enhanced
    Trough
    Blocking
    Weak
    High
    Weak
    Low
    Strong
    High
    Strong
    Low
    Warm
    Associated
    SSTPatterns
    (

    1214yearperiod)
    JetStream
    J
    e
    t

    S
    t
    r
    e
    a
    m
    NorthAtlanticOscillation
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    0
    100W
    85W
    70W
    55W
    40W
    25W
    10W
    5E
    20E
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    0
    100W
    85W
    70W
    55W
    40W 25W
    10W
    5E
    20E
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    0
    100W
    85W
    70W
    55W
    40W
    25W
    10W
    5E
    20E
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    0
    100W
    85W
    70W
    55W
    40W 25W
    10W
    5E
    20E
    85
    leasttripledoverthepast50yearsandcontinuesto
    increaseatanannualrateof1to2%.Inanumberof
    countries,however,abstractionrateshavepeakedand
    arenowstableorevendecreasing(Comprehensive
    AssessmentofWaterManagementinAgriculture,
    2007),asillustratedinFigure3.8.Theseestimatesmay
    notbeprecise,buttheysuggestthattheabstraction
    ofgroundwateraccountsforapproximately26%of
    totalglobalwaterwithdrawalandequalsaround8%of
    meanglobalgroundwaterrecharge.
    Groundwaterisnowasignicantsourceofwater
    forhumanconsumption,supplyingnearlyhalfof
    alldrinkingwaterintheworld(WWAP,2009)and
    around43%ofallwaterefectivelyconsumedinir-
    rigation
    8
    (Siebertetal.,2010).Yettherelevanceand
    socio-economicimpactsofgroundwaterdevelop-
    mentarehigherthanthesepercentagesmaysuggest.
    Duetotherelativelylargevolumesofwaterstored
    underground,mostaquifershaveaconsiderable
    bufercapacity,whichkeepstheirwateravailablefor
    withdrawalevenduringverylongperiodswithout
    rainfall.Thisenablespeopletohavereliableaccessto
    waterinregionsthatwouldotherwisebetoodryif
    theirwatersupplydependedonlyonprecipitationor
    surfacewater.Themoststrikingexampleofthisbuf-
    ercapacityisformedbynon-renewablegroundwater
    resources:variouslargeaquifersystemsonearthstill
    theglobaldistributionofgroundwaterabstraction
    bytheyear2000.Two-thirdsofthetotalamountis
    abstractedinAsiawithIndia,China,Pakistan,Iran
    andBangladeshasmajorconsumers(Tables3.1and
    3.2).Theglobalgroundwaterabstractionratehasat
    WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY
    FIGURE 3.7
    Intensityofgroundwaterabstractionbytheyear2000(inmmperyear),asallocatedto0.5x0.5gridcells
    bythePCR-GLOBWBmodel
    Source: Wada et al. (2010, p. 2, American Geophysical Union, reproduced by permission).
    TABLE 3.1
    Top10groundwater-abstractingcountriesasof2010
    Country Abstraction (km
    3
    /year)
    1. India 251
    2. China 112
    3. United States of America 112
    4. Pakistan 64
    5. Iran 60
    6. Bangladesh 35
    7. Mexico 29
    8. Saudi Arabia 23
    9. Indonesia 14
    10. Italy 14
    Note: About 72% of the global groundwater abstraction takes place
    in these ten countries.
    Source: Data from IGRAC (2010), AQUASTAT (2011) and EUROSTAT
    (2011).
    Nodata 02 220 20100 100300 3001,000
    86
    Signicant changes in the state of groundwater systems
    Inowsandoutows,thevolumeofwaterstoredand
    relatedgroundwaterlevels,andwaterquality,arekey
    characteristicsofthestateofanygroundwatersystem.
    Steadilyincreasingratesofgroundwaterabstraction
    andotherhumaninteractionswithgroundwater,suchas
    thoseproducedbychanginglanduseandemissionof
    pollutingsubstances,allafectthestateofgroundwater
    systems.Climatechangeandwaterresourcesman-
    agementmeasuresalsohaveanimpactonthestateof
    groundwatersystems.Asaresult,themajorityofthe
    worldsgroundwatersystemsarenolongerindynamic
    equilibrium,butdoshowsignicanttrends.Inparticu-
    lar,reductionofnaturaloutows,decreasingstoredvol-
    umes,decliningwaterlevelsandwaterqualitydegra-
    dationarewidelyobserved,alongwithchangesinthe
    meanrateofgroundwaterrenewal.
    Thegroundwaterresourcesworldmapproducedby
    WHYMAP(2008)providesavisualimpressionofthe
    globalgeographicdistributionoffavourableversusless
    favourablegroundwaterzonesintermsofhydrauliccon-
    tinuity,storedvolumeandrateofgroundwaterrenewal
    (recharge).Alargeproportionoftheearthsgroundwa-
    ter(probably80to90%)isstoredinthezonesmapped
    asmajorgroundwaterbasins,coveringonlyaround35%
    containverylargevolumesofgroundwaterinspiteof
    nothavingreceivedsignicantreplenishmentduring
    recentmillennia(FosterandLoucks,2006).However,
    nomatterhowlargethevolumesofwatercontained
    intheseaquifersmaybe,thefactthattheyarenon-
    renewablemeanstheycaneventuallybeminedto
    exhaustioniftheiruseisnotmanagedproperly.And
    therearehotspotswheretheavailabilityofnon-re-
    newablegroundwaterresourceshasreachedcritical
    limits(seebelow).
    Groundwateriscrucialforthelivelihoodsandfoodse-
    curityof1.2to1.5billionruralhouseholdsinthepoorer
    regionsofAfricaandAsia(ComprehensiveAssessment
    ofWaterManagementinAgriculture,2007),butalso
    fordomesticsuppliesofalargepartofthepopulation
    elsewhereintheworld.Furthermore,groundwater-fed
    irrigationisusuallyconsiderablylesssusceptibleto
    watershortagerisksthanirrigationsuppliedbysurface
    water.Thisislikelytoresultinhighereconomicreturns
    perunitofwaterused,asdemonstratedbystudies
    inSpain(LlamasandGarrido,2007)andIndia(Shah,
    2007).Consequently,theshareofgroundwaterinthe
    overallsocio-economicbenetfromabstractedwater
    tendstobehigherthanitsvolumetricshareinthetotal
    waterabstraction.
    CHAPTER3 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES
    TABLE 3.2
    Keyestimatesonglobalgroundwaterabstraction(referenceyear2010)
    Continent Groundwater abstraction
    1
    Compared to total water abstraction
    Irrigation Domestic Industrial Total Total water
    abstraction
    2
    Share of
    groundwater
    km
    3
    /year km
    3
    /year km
    3
    /year km
    3
    /year % km
    3
    /year %
    North America 99 26 18 143 15 524 27
    Central America and
    the Caribbean
    5 7 2 14 1 149 9
    South America 12 8 6 26 3 182 14
    Europe (including
    Russian Federation)
    23 37 16 76 8 497 15
    Africa 27 15 2 44 4 196 23
    Asia 497 116 63 676 68 2257 30
    Oceania 4 2 1 7 1 26 25
    World 666 212 108 986 100 3831 26
    1 Estimated on the basis of IGRAC (2010), AQUASTAT (2011), EUROSTAT (2011), Margat (2008) and Siebert et al. (2010).
    2 Average of the 1995 and 2025 business as usual scenario estimates presented by Alcamo et al. (2003).
    87
    19611990.Thestudyconcludesthatgroundwaterre-
    chargeislikelytoincreaseinthenorthernlatitudes
    bythe2050s,butstronglydecrease(by30to70%or
    more)incertaincurrentlysemi-aridzones,including
    theMediterranean,North-EasternBrazilandSouth-
    WesternAfrica.Thenumerousnarrowandshallowal-
    luvialaquifers(stripaquifers)indryclimaticzonesare
    amongtheworldsmostvulnerablewithrespectto
    climatechange(vanderGun,2009).
    Groundwaterabstractioncausesdepletionofground-
    waterstorageuntilanewdynamicequilibriumises-
    tablished,underconditionsofreducednaturaloutow
    and/orinducedrecharge.Intheworldsaridandsemi-
    aridzones,numerousgroundwatersystemsarenot
    resilientenoughtoaccommodatestoragedepletion
    underintensivegroundwaterdevelopment.
    9
    Evidently,
    thisistruefornon-renewablegroundwater(Fosterand
    Loucks,2006),butitappliesaswelltomanyaquifers
    currentlybeingrecharged.Theresultisaprogressive
    depletionofgroundwater,accompaniedbystead-
    ilydeclininggroundwaterlevels.KonikowandKendy
    (2005)estimatethatabout700to800km
    3
    ofground-
    waterhasbeendepletedfromaquifersintheUSA
    duringthetwentiethcentury.Recently,theGravity
    RecoveryandClimateExperiment(GRACE)produced
    estimatesofthecurrentrateofgroundwaterdepletion
    inanumberofverylargeaquifers(Rodelletal.,2009;
    Famigliettietal.,2009)andaglobalsimulationmodel
    producedestimatesfortheentireplanet(Wadaetal.,
    2010).Resultssofarshowthatsignicantgroundwa-
    terstoragedepletionistakingplaceinmanyareasof
    intensivegroundwaterwithdrawal.
    10
    Physicalexhaus-
    tionofgroundwaterstorageisathreatinveryshallow
    aquifersonly.Morecommonly,themoreimportantim-
    pactsofgroundwaterdepletionareside-efectsofthe
    associateddecliningwaterlevels,andincludeincreas-
    ingcostofgroundwater(duetolargerpumpinglifts),
    inducedsalinityandotherwaterqualitychanges,land
    subsidence,degradedspringsandreducedbaseows.
    Whilethebulkofglobalgroundwaterresourcesat
    shallowandintermediatedepthshaveadequatequali-
    tyformostuses,gradualchangesinlocalgroundwater
    qualityhavebeenobservedinzonesscatteredaround
    theworld.Themostubiquitouschangesarecausedby
    pollutantsproducedbyhumanssuchasliquidandsol-
    idwaste,chemicalsusedinagriculture,manurefrom
    livestock,irrigationreturnows,miningresiduesand
    pollutedair.Asecondcategoryresultsfromthemigra-
    tionofpoorqualitywaterintoaquiferzones,suchas
    oflandsurface.Theglobalvolumeofstoredgroundwater
    ispoorlyknown;estimatesrangefrom15.3to60million
    km
    3
    ,including8to10millionkm
    3
    offreshwater,whilethe
    remainderbrackishandsalinegroundwaterispre-
    dominantatgreatdepth(Margat,2008).
    Recentmodelstudieshaveproducedglobalpat-
    ternsofmeanannualgroundwaterrecharge(Dlland
    Fiedler,2008;Wadaetal.,2010),showingastrong
    correlationwithglobalmeanannualrainfallmaps.
    Themeanglobalgroundwaterrechargeestimatedby
    thesemodels12.710
    3
    km
    3
    peryear(DllandFiedler,
    2008)and15.210
    3
    km
    3
    peryear(Wadaetal.,2010),
    respectivelyisatleastthreeordersofmagnitude
    smallerthantheestimatedtotalgroundwaterstor-
    age.Whattheseestimatesdonottakeintoaccount
    isthepossibleimpactofclimatechange.However,a
    recentstudybyDll(2009)simulatesclimatechange
    impactsonthebasisoffourIntergovernmentalPanel
    onClimateChange(IPCC)scenarios,comparingthe
    modeloutcomeswiththoseofthereferenceperiod
    WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY
    FIGURE 3.8
    Groundwaterabstractiontrendsinselected
    countries(inkm
    3
    peryear)
    Source: Adapted from Margat (2008, g. 4.6, p. 107).
    300
    250
    200
    150
    100
    50
    0
    1950
    India
    Mexico SaudiArabia Russia France
    USA China Pakistan Iran
    1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
    88
    exploitedaquifers.Inatareaswithshallowwaterta-
    bles,landsubsidencemaygeneratetheneedformore
    intensivedrainage,whichinturnaccelerateslandsub-
    sidence(OudeEssinketal.,2010).
    Ofparticularnoteistheimpactofgroundwaterdeple-
    tiononsealevelrise.Konikow(2009),Konikowand
    Kendy(2005)andWadaetal.(2010)arguethatthe
    ultimatesinkformostofthegroundwaterremoved
    fromaquifersbydepletionistheoceans.Although
    theirestimatesarenotyetprecise,theymakeaplausi-
    bleargumentforgroundwaterdepletioncontributing
    signicantlytosealevelrise,implyingthatthecurrent
    riseinsealevelisdueinparttoinuencesotherthan
    climatechange.
    11
    Groundwater: Cause for concern or opportunity?
    Groundwaterconstitutesasignicantpartofthe
    waterresourcewithprofoundimpactonhumanwel-
    fare.Groundwatersystemsaroundtheworldarecom-
    ingunderincreasingstressfromvariousanthropogenic
    andnaturalfactors.Inmanyareas,thisthreatensthe
    futureavailabilityofgood-qualitygroundwaterataf-
    fordablecostorinsituenvironmentalfunctionsof
    groundwater.Soundwaterresourcesmanagement
    basedonscienticknowledgeandpayingdueatten-
    tiontogroundwateristhereforecrucial.Itshouldstrive
    forabalancebetweenpresentandfuturebenets
    saltwaterintrusionincoastalareasorupwardmigra-
    tionofdeepsalinegroundwaterasaresultofground-
    waterabstraction.Climatechangeandassociatedsea
    levelriseareexpectedtoconstituteanotherthreatto
    groundwaterqualityincoastalareas.
    Impacts on other components of the physical
    environment
    Themostvisibleimpactofgroundwaterabstraction
    andassociatedchangesinthegroundwaterregime
    relatestothereductionofnaturalgroundwaterout-
    ows.Thedecreaseordisappearanceofthebaseow
    ofstreams,springdischargeandgroundwater-related
    ecosystemshassignicantlychangedthephysicalen-
    vironmentinmanypartsoftheworld,especiallyinarid
    andsemi-aridzones.
    Figure3.9showsastrikingexampleofbaseowreduc-
    tionduetogroundwaterstoragedepletion.Inatar-
    eas,thehydraulicsettingmaybesuchthatpartofthe
    directowofstreams(i.e.themorerapidandoften
    morevoluminousowcomponent)maybelosttoad-
    jacentaquifers.
    Groundwaterabstractionhascausedlandsubsidence
    innumerousareasaroundtheworldwherewater-sat-
    uratedcompressibleformationsatrelativelyshallow
    depthsareinhydraulicconnectionwithintensively
    CHAPTER3 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES
    FIGURE 3.9
    StreamandwellhydrographsfromtheNorthChinaPlain,showingevidenceofreducedstreamowcausedby
    groundwaterdepletion
    Source: Konikow and Kendy (2005, g. 1, p. 318, with kind permission of Springer Science+Business Media).
    1000
    800
    600
    400
    200
    0
    0
    10
    20
    30
    40
    A
    n
    n
    u
    a
    l

    o
    w

    (
    1
    0
    3

    m
    3
    )
    D
    e
    p
    t
    h

    t
    o

    w
    a
    t
    e
    r

    t
    a
    b
    l
    e

    (
    m
    )
    Observationwell
    FuyangRiver
    Year
    1
    9
    5
    0
    1
    9
    6
    0
    1
    9
    7
    0
    1
    9
    8
    0
    1
    9
    9
    0
    2
    0
    0
    0
    89
    begintocontributemelt-watertothestreamsearlier
    intheseasonandwillbemoredominantinlatesum-
    mer;thus,glaciersactasbuferswithwatersbeingre-
    leasedfrompermanentstorageinyearsoflowsnow-
    fallandasretainingwaters(intheformofice)inyears
    ofheavysnowfall.
    Thediferencesbetweenwinterandsummerbecome
    morepronouncedmovingpole-wardsfrommid-lati-
    tudes,andarereducedmovingtowardstheequator.
    Precipitationalsovarieswiththetypeofclimate:in
    Mediterraneanclimateswinterprecipitationpredomi-
    nates,whileinmonsoonclimatessummerprecipitation
    ismorepronounced.
    Risingglobaltemperatureshaveaparticularefecton
    therelativeimportanceofrainfallandsnowfall,and
    ontheratesatwhichglaciersaremelting.Ingeneral,
    mountainglaciersareshrinkingworldwidewithsome
    notableexceptions,forexample,intheKarakoram
    (Hewitt,2005).Intheshortterm,theshrinkingofgla-
    ciersisaddingwatertostreamowoverandabove
    annualprecipitation,thusincreasingwatersupply.In
    thelongterm(decadestocenturies),thoseadditional
    sourcesofwaterwilldiminishasglaciersdisappear,and
    thebuferingefectsofglaciersonstreamowregimes
    willlessen.Overallchangesinglaciermassbalanceare
    wellsummarizedbyDyurgerov(2010)andtheGlobal
    LandIceMeasurementsfromSpace(GLIMS)database.
    Glacier-relatedoodsarealsoimportantinmany
    mountainregions,asillustratedintheexamplesbelow.
    fromgroundwater,payattentiontodeteriorationof
    groundwaterquality,controlenvironmentalimpactsof
    groundwaterabstraction,andmitigatesuchimpactsin
    caseswherereducedgroundwateravailabilitycannot
    beprevented.
    Inspiteofrealconcernsaboutunsustainableabstrac-
    tionratesandpollutioninmanypartsoftheworld,
    groundwaterpresentsmanyopportunitiesandwill
    continuetodosointhefutureifcarefullymanaged.
    Groundwatersomnipresenceanduniquebufercapacity
    haveenabledpeopletosettleandsurviveindryareas
    whererainfallandrunofarescarceorunpredictable.
    Groundwaterisareliablesourceofdomesticwaterto
    manyruralandurbanareasaroundtheworld,andsub-
    sequenttothesilentrevolutionhascontributedand
    stillcontributestosignicantsocio-economicdevel-
    opmentandpovertyalleviation.Groundwaterisalso
    likelytoplayacrucialroleinthecontextofclimate
    changeandadaptation.Inmanywater-scarceregions,
    climatechangeisexpectedtoresultinreducedand
    moreerraticsurfacewaterandgreenwateravailabil-
    ity.Groundwaterrechargewilldecreasethereaswell,
    butthegroundwaterstoragebuferwillinmostcases
    ensureuninterruptedwateravailability,thustriggering
    ashiftinwithdrawalsfromsurfacewatertogroundwa-
    ter.Thiswillreduceoverallwatersupplyrisksandsug-
    geststhatgroundwaterinsuchregionswillprovidethe
    keytocopingwithwaterscarcityproblemsimposedor
    aggravatedbyclimatechangeduringthetwenty-rst
    century.
    3.2.2Glaciers
    The role of glaciers within mountain hydrology
    Mountainsarethewatertowersoftheworld,receiv-
    ingmuchmoreprecipitationthanthesurroundinglow-
    lands.Theircontributiontowatersupplyisofparticu-
    larsignicancewherethelowlandsarearid(Viviroliet
    al.,2003).
    Mountainstreamowiscomposedofthreemajor
    elements:rainfall,snowmeltandwaterfromglacier
    melt.Therelativeimportanceoftheseelements,vary-
    ingthroughtimeandwithelevation,islargelycon-
    trolledbytemperatureandseasonalityofprecipitation.
    Inmanymid-latitudesituationsthereis,onaverage,
    nomarkedseasonalityinprecipitation;wintersare
    characterizedbysnowfallandsummersbyrainfall.
    Inspring,snowmeltmaydominatethehydrograph,
    whileglaciermeltbecomesmoreimportantinlate
    summer.Duringyearsoflowsnowfall,glaciericewill
    WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY
    The global
    groundwater
    abstraction rate has
    at least tripled over
    the past 50 years and
    continues to increase
    at an annual rate of
    1 to 2%.
    90
    Thisregionischaracterizedbygreatclimatic,glacio-
    logicalandhydrologicaldiversity.TheeasternHimalaya
    isdominatedbythesummermonsoon.Westward,
    theintensityofthemonsoondiminishes,whileinthe
    Karakoram,intensivesummerprecipitationoccursonly
    inexceptionalyears.Localprecipitationvariesgreat-
    lyfromlessthan5,000mmperyearonthesouthern
    anksoftheeasternHimalayatolessthan250mmper
    yearonthenorthernslopes(Young,2009).
    Figure3.12illustratesglacierextentintheregion.Most
    oftheglaciersintheHimalayaarerelativelysmall;they
    arefoundpredominantlyathighelevationsandrespond
    relativelyquicklytoglobalwarming.Largeglaciers
    dominatetheKarakoramwitharealextentsofgreater
    than500km
    2
    .Suchglaciers,manyofwhicharesurge-
    type,extendtoelevationsbelow3,000mandrespond
    veryslowlytochangesinclimate.Manyarecurrently
    growinginarealextentandprobablyalsoinmass.
    Glacier melt contribution to stream ow
    Thesignicanceofglaciermeltcontributiontostream
    owmaybedividedintotwocomponents:
    The melting of glacier ice in the ablation zone,that
    is,thepartoftheglacierwithanannualnetlossof
    mass.Suchmeltingvariesinimportancewithinthe
    Himalayanregion.IntheeasternHimalayaglacier,
    Regions of the world afected by glacier melt-waters
    Theglobaldistributionofglaciersandicesheets
    isillustratedinFigure3.10.Mostlargeicemasses
    arefoundinregionswithsparsehumanhabitation.
    However,glaciersoftheAlps,theAndes,CentralAsia,
    theCaucasus,Norway,NewZealandandWestern
    Canadaareimportantforwatersupply.Inmostof
    theseregionsglaciersareshrinkingwithimpactson
    streamowasdescribedabove.
    Populationsaregrowinginalloftheseregions,and
    thesubsequentdemandsforwaterareincreasing.In
    severalregionsalternativesourcesofwaterarebeing
    depleted,inparticular,groundwater.Inmostregions,
    supplyisbeingoutstrippedbydemand.Itisarguable
    thatchangesindemandareoftenmoresignicant
    thanchangesinsupply;thus,caremustbetakento
    considerbothsidesofthesupply/demandequationin
    assessingwaterresources.
    Examples from the Himalayan region
    ThebasinsoftheBrahmaputra,GangesandIndus,en-
    compassingtheHimalayaandKarakoram(illustrated
    inFigure3.11)demonstratetheimportanceofglaciers
    onstreamow.Withinthesebasinslivesome0.8bil-
    lionpeopledependentonstreamowforwatersupply
    andatriskfromglacier-relatedoods.
    CHAPTER3 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES
    FIGURE 3.10
    Globaldistributionofglaciersandicesheets(Antarcticaexcluded)
    Source: Armstrong et al. (2005, courtesy B. H. Kaup, National Snow and Ice Data Center, GLIMS).
    180 120W 60W 0 60E 120E 180
    60S
    30S
    0
    30N
    60N
    90N
    91 WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY
    FIGURE 3.11
    DelineationofthebasinsoftheBrahmaputra,GangesandIndus
    Source: Miller et al. (2011 [in press], g. 1, p.7, using US Geological Survey ESRI data).
    FIGURE 3.12
    GRACEsatelliteimageshowingtheextentofglaciercoverintheHimalayaKarakoramandestimationof
    groundwaterdepletioninnorth-westIndia
    Note: The loss of 109 km
    3
    over a six-year period is signicant.
    Source: NASA GRACE Satellite image (http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/india_water.html), T. Schindler and M. Rodell.
    Nov2002-2008
    EquivalentHeightAnomaly
    Centimetres
    -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12
    Majorriver
    Riverbasinboundary
    Nationalboundary
    0500
    5001,000
    1,0002,000
    2,0003,000
    3,0004,000
    4,0005,000
    5,0006,000
    6,0006,752
    Elevation(ma.s.l.)
    92
    deRuiz,2010]),withtheresultingdecreaseinwa-
    tersupplyforvarioususes,asinsomeareasof
    Argentina,ChileandPeru(ECLAC,2009).
    CHAPTER3 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES
    icemeltiscompletelyovershadowedbymonsoon
    rainfallandsnowmelt,withtheicemeltcontributing
    lessthan3%ofannualstreamow.IntheKarakoram,
    theglaciermeltcontributionismuchmoresigni-
    cant,reachingmorethan20%ofannualowin
    someyearsduringlatesummer.
    The contribution derived from shrinkage of the gla-
    cier mass due to global warming,thatis,waterbe-
    ingreleasedfrompermanentstorageandadding
    tostreamowderivedfromannualprecipitation.
    Whilethereisgoodevidencethatmostglaciersin
    theHimalayaare,veryslowly,losingmass,many
    glaciersintheKarakoramaregainingmass(Hewitt,
    2005).Ithasbeenclearlydemonstratedthatgla-
    ciersindiferentpartsoftheregionareshrinking
    (orinsomeinstancesgaining)massatverydiferent
    rates(Scherleretal.,2011.)Thosethatareshrink-
    ingaredoingsoveryslowly,probablycontributing
    muchlessthan1%toannualstreamows.Itislikely
    thatverylargeglacierswillcontributemelt-waterto
    streamowatmuchthesamerateformanydec-
    adesandpossiblycenturies;however,someglaciers
    willrecedeorevendisappear(asinPeru[Oblitas
    FIGURE 3.13
    DangerousglacierdammedlakeswithinBhutan
    Source: Mool et al. (2001a, p. 109).
    FIGURE 3.14
    LuggeTshoGlaciallake,Bhutan
    Source: Mool et al. (2001b, plate 9.13, p. 93).
    Potentiallydangerousglaciallake(total=24)
    Basinboundary
    River
    Internationalboundary
    AmoChu
    HaChu
    PaChu
    ThimChu
    MoChu
    PhoChu
    DangChu
    MangdeChu
    ChamkarChu
    KuriChu
    DangmeChu
    NyereAmaChu
    NorthernBasin
    AAm AAm Am Am Amo o AAAmo AA o AA ooo Amo o A o AAm A o Am AA o Am Amo A oo mmoo m Chu
    HHHa Ha aa HHHaaaa Haa HHaa aaa HHaa Haaa HHa Haaaaa Chu u
    Pa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Chu
    ThimC mmmmmC mC mmC mmmC mmmmmmmmmmm hu hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
    Mo Mo Mo MMo MMo Mo MMMMMo MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM Chuuuuu
    Pho PPPPPPPPPPPPP Ch Chhhhhhhhh Chhhh Chhhhhhhhu
    Dan DDa Da Da Da DDa DDa DDDDa DDDDDDD gC gC gg g gC g CCC g gCCCCC gg CCC ggg C ggg CCC g CCChu hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
    Man Ma MMMMa MMMMMMMMMa MMMMMMMM gde gde gde ee gde gde gde gde gde gde eeeeeeee gde gd gggggg Ch Ch CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC u
    Cha Cha ha Cha Cha ha Cha ha Cha Cha Cha a Cha Cha Cha Cha Cha Cha Cha Cha amka mmmmmm rChu
    Kur KKKKKKKKKKu KKu Ku Ku KKKu KKKKu iChu uuuuuuuuuuuuuu
    Dan Dan Dan Dan Dan Dan Dan Dan nn Dan n Dan D n DDa Dan Dan n DDan nn Da Dan Dan nn D nnn DDa DDDDa gggme me gme gmmmme me gmmmmmmme gmmmm gme mme mm gme gmmmm gmmm gm gmmmmmmme ggmmmmmmm gmme gmeeChu
    Nye Nye Nye Nye Nye Nye Nye Nye Nye y Nye y Ny Ny Ny Nyyyy Ny NNN re eAma AAAAAAAAma AAAAma AAAAAAAAAAAA a AA aaCh C u
    NorthernBasin
    93 WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY
    Glacier-related oods
    Therearetwotypesofglacier-relatedoodsinthe
    region:glacierlakeoutburstoods(GLOFs)andout-
    burstsofglacier-dammedlakes(jkulhlaups).
    GLOFsresultfromsmallpro-glaciallakesthatislakes
    impoundedbyterminalandlateralmorainesinfront
    oftheglacierterminiemptyingveryrapidly,produc-
    ingoodsofhighintensityandshortduration.With
    glaciersretreatingduetoglobalwarming,suchlakes
    arebecominglarger.Suddenreleasescanresultfrom
    thecollapseoftheretainingmoraineorasaresultof
    landslidesintothelakewithsuddendisplacementof
    thewaters.Therisksfromsuchoodsareincreasing.
    Therearemanythousandsuchglacierlakesinthere-
    gion.GLOFscancauseextensivedamagedownstream,
    withlossoflifeandeconomicdamagefromdestruc-
    tionofbridges,hydroplantsandotherinfrastructure
    (Ivesetal.,2010).InBhutan,thereareover2,400such
    lakes,24ofwhichhavebeenidentiedaspotentially
    catastrophic(Figures3.13and3.14).
    Jkulhlaupsresultfromthesuddenreleaseofwater
    fromlakesimpoundedbyglaciersthathavedammed
    valleys.Suddenreleaseoflakewaterscanbetrulycat-
    astrophicfortheKarakoram(Hewitt,1982),asillustrat-
    edinFigure3.15.Inthe1920s,successiveoodsiniti-
    atedontheShyokRiverresultedinan18mincreasein
    thewaterlevelatAttock1,400kmdownstream,with
    catastrophicresultsintheplainsofthePunjab.
    Policy options to deal with uncertainty and risk related
    to glaciers in the Himalayan region
    Thetransboundarynatureofallthreeoftheriversystems
    concernedwithheadwatersinChina,mid-sectionsin
    Nepal/Bhutanand/orIndia,andlowersectionsinPakistan
    orBangladeshmeansthatpolicyoptionsforwaterre-
    sourcesmanagementneedtobeconsideredwithina
    broadpoliticalandeconomiccontext.Thesharingofwater
    resourcesbetweenthesecountriesisachallenge.
    Demandsforwatersupplyaregrowingwithdramatic
    populationincreases,asituationfurthercomplicatedby
    themigrationofpeoplefromruraltourbansettings.In
    addition,economicdevelopmentandhigherstandards
    oflivingareincreasingdemandsforwater.Allofthese
    issuesposechallengesforwatermanagers.
    FIGURE 3.15
    IndusRiver:Glacierdamsandrelatedevents
    Source: Hewitt (1982, p. 260, by permission IAHS).
    Gilgit
    Skordu
    Shimshal
    H
    u
    n
    za
    BralduR.
    I
    n
    d
    u
    s

    R
    .
    A
    s
    t
    o
    r
    R
    .
    ShyokR.
    I
    n
    d
    u
    s
    R
    .
    India
    Tibet
    P
    a
    k
    i
    s
    t
    a
    n
    Studyarea
    Glaciersinterferingwithrivers
    Glacialdams
    Glacialdamswithcatastrophicoutburst
    Landslidedams
    Landslidedamswithcatastrophicoutburst
    Glacial'surges'
    0km50
    N
    K2(8,611m)
    94
    onlyinthelaboratory,andallsubstancesmaybepol-
    lutantsdependingontheirconcentrationinwater.This
    isoneofthereasonshealthprofessionalsoftenprefer
    tousethetermsafewaterratherthancleanwater.
    Sufcientwatersupplyofappropriatequalityisakey
    ingredientinthehealthandwell-beingofhumansand
    ecosystems,andforsocialandeconomicdevelop-
    ment.Waterqualityisbecomingaglobalconcernof
    increasingsignicance,asrisksofdegradationtrans-
    latedirectlyintosocialeconomicimpacts.Although
    therehavebeensomeregionalsuccessesinimproving
    waterquality,therearenodatatosuggestthatthere
    hasbeenanoverallimprovementinwaterqualityona
    globalscale.
    Water quality is inextricably linked with water quantity
    as both are key determinants of supply. Comparedto
    waterquality,waterquantityhasreceivedfarmorein-
    vestment,scienticsupportandpublicattentioninre-
    centdecades.However,waterqualityisjustasimpor-
    tantaswaterquantityforsatisfyingbasichumanand
    environmentalneeds.Moreover,thetwoareinextri-
    cablylinked,withpoorwaterqualityimpactingwater
    quantityinanumberofways.Forexample,polluted
    waterthatcannotbeusedfordrinking,bathing,indus-
    tryoragriculturemayefectivelyreducetheamount
    ofwateravailableforuseinagivenarea(UNEP,2010).
    Themorepollutedthewateris,thegreatertheincre-
    mentalcostoftreatmentrequiredtoreturnittoause-
    ablestandard(UNEP,2010).
    AccordingtoStellar(2010),Thelinkbetweenquality
    andquantitycantakediferentformsinthecasesof
    groundwaterandsurfacewater.Wheresubterranean
    aquifersareconcerned,thereisanexplicitconnection
    betweenover-useandqualitydegradation.Excessive
    pumpingofgroundwaterovertimecandiminishwa-
    terqualityintwoways.First,qualitycanbeafected
    throughincreasedconcentrationsofnaturallyoccur-
    ringcompoundsthatbecomedangerouslyhighas
    theamountofwaterdwindles,asinthecaseofIndia
    whereuorosispotentiallythreatensordirectlyafects
    millionsofpeople.Second,qualitycanbeafectedby
    increasingsalinitylevelsasaresultofsaltwaterintru-
    sionintocoastalaquifers,asinthecaseofCyprusand
    theGazaStrip(Stellar,2010).Themostimmediate
    problemthatsaltwaterintrusiontypicallycausesisa
    reductionintheamountofwateravailableforhuman
    consumption,butitalsodirectlyimpactsotherusesin-
    cludingthoserelatingtoagricultureandindustry.
    Alternativewatersupplies,particularlygroundwaterre-
    sourcesinnorth-westIndiavitaltohumanlifeandliveli-
    hoods,arebeingdepletedunsustainably(Figure3.12).
    Thishasimportantimplicationsforoverallwatersupply.
    Asummaryofhowthecountriesintheregionare
    adaptingtotheefectsofclimatechangeisprovided
    inICIMOD(2009).However,thereisageneralper-
    ceptionwithinmostgovernmentcirclesthatglacier
    meltandshrinkagewillbehighlydetrimentaltowater
    supply.Thisperceptionisalmostcertainlymisplaced.
    Mostglacierswillcontinuetoshrinkveryslowly,add-
    ingwatertothestreamsoverandaboveannualpre-
    cipitation,butonlyinverysmallquantitiesrelativeto
    precipitation.
    AnexampleofhowBhutanisaddressingoodriskis-
    suesisgivenwithintheUNDPAdaptationLearning
    Mechanism.Theobjectiveoftheprojectistoreduce
    climatechange-inducedGLOFrisks.Throughthepro-
    ject,theGovernmentofBhutanwillintegratelong-term
    climatechange-inducedrisksintotheexistingdisaster
    riskmanagementframework.Itwilldemonstratepracti-
    calmeasurestoreduceGLOFrisks,suchasinstalling
    pumpstoreducelakelevelsandintroducingearlywarn-
    ingsystemstoalertdownstreampopulations.
    3.3Waterquality
    Thequalityofwaterisarelativeterm.Thenotionof
    goodorbadwaterqualityisnotonlyafunctionofits
    stateandwhatitcontains,butalsodependsonwhat
    itisusedfor.Purewaterdoesnotexistinnaturebut
    CHAPTER3 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES
    Wastewater
    management solutions
    also need to be
    combined with public
    education eforts,
    such as those related
    to personal hygiene
    and environmental
    education.
    95
    Overuseofsurfacewater,suchasriversandlakes,can
    leadtoincreasedconcentrationsofharmfulsubstances
    presentinthewaterduetopollutionormineralleach-
    ing.Amarkedexampleofthisisseeninthecaseof
    theRioGrandeRiver,wheredecreasedowsinsum-
    mermonthscoincidewithlargedeclinesinwaterqual-
    ity.Duringthedryseason,pathogenconcentrations
    increasebyalmost100times(Stellar,2010).
    Policy-makersmustmakeaconcertedeforttobet-
    terintegratetheissuesofwaterquantityandwater
    qualityintheirresponses.Inturn,theyneedthesup-
    portoftheresearchcommunitywhocanhelptobet-
    terquantifytheproblems,aswellasthedevelopment
    ofremedialsolutions.Withoutanappropriatelevelof
    intervention,themajorsocial,economicandenviron-
    ment-relatedrisks,uncertaintiesandimpactsrelated
    towaterqualityareexpectedtoincrease.
    Socio-economic development is dependent on water
    quality. Riskstohumanandecosystemhealthare
    linkedtopoorwaterquality,whichinturnthreat-
    enssocio-economicdevelopment.Ecosystemhealth
    hashistoricallybeenaconcernofthericher,more
    developedcountriesandtheirenvironmentalmove-
    ments.However,increasingrecognitionofthemul-
    titudeofbenetsofecosystemgoodsandservices,
    includingwastewatertreatment,hasgraduallymade
    ecosystemhealthanimportantsocio-economicissue,
    eveninthepoorestcountries.Waterpollutedwith
    toxicsubstances,suchasinorganiccompoundsand
    untreatedsewage,degradesthefunctionofaquatic
    ecosystemsbyreducingthemultifacetedgoodsand
    servicestheyareabletoprovide.Asmanyofthe
    worldspoorestpeopledependdirectlyuponthese
    goodsandservicesfortheirexistence,thissituation
    furthercomplicatesefortstoalleviatepoverty(MA,
    2005a,b).
    Intermsofresponses,thereisaneedforcost-efective
    optionsforcollection,treatmentanddisposalofhu-
    manwastes.Itisestimatedthatover80%ofusedwater
    worldwideisnotcollectedortreated(Corcoranetal.,
    2010).Wastewatermanagementsolutionsalsoneed
    tobecombinedwithpubliceducationeforts,suchas
    thoserelatedtopersonalhygieneandenvironmental
    education.Studieshaveshownthattheprovisionof
    improvedsanitationandsafedrinkingwatercouldre-
    ducediarrhoealdiseasesbynearly90%(WHO,2008b).
    Thereisalsoaneedtodirectefortstowardindustries
    usingorproducingtoxicsubstances.Developmentof
    cleantechnologyandsubstitutionprocesses,combined
    withcost-efcienttreatmentoptions,isaprioritycom-
    ponent.Thecontrolofnon-pointsourcesofpollution,
    particularlynutrientsleadingtoeutrophication,isan
    increasingglobalchallenge.Regulationsandefcient
    regulatoryenforcementareessentialalongsideinsti-
    tutionalefortstostrengthenemergencyresponses,in
    particularwhenthesafetyofdrinkingwatersupplies
    iscompromisedduringnaturaldisasters.Thisissue
    WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY
    FIGURE 3.16
    Annualcostoftheenvironmentaldegradationofwater
    Source: World Bank (2007, g. 4.4, p. 109, from data sources cited therein).
    Algeria Egypt Iran Jordan Lebanon Morocco Syria Tunisia
    S
    h
    a
    r
    e

    o
    f

    G
    D
    P

    (
    %
    )
    3.0
    2.5
    2.0
    1.5
    1.0
    0.5
    0
    96
    drinkingwatersuppliesrepresentoneofthemajor
    threatstotheworldsvulnerablepoor.
    Toxicwatercontaminationislesswidespread,butre-
    mainsanimportantissueinmanyregions,particular-
    lyemergingeconomies.Thereleaseoftoxicwastes
    fromwastedumpsandindustrialenterprisesisalso
    amajorthreatandexpensetotheprovisionofsafe
    waterinthedevelopingworld.Animportantshare
    ofthetotalburdenofdiseaseworldwidearound
    10%couldbepreventedbyimprovementsrelated
    todrinkingwater,sanitation,hygiene,anduseofen-
    vironmentalmanagementandhealthimpactassess-
    ments(seeSection4.1).
    willincreaseinimportancewiththeemergingthreats
    broughtaboutbyclimatechangeimpacts.
    Water quality is linked to human health. Humanhealth
    risksarewithoutdoubtthemajorandmostwide-
    spreadconcernlinkedtowaterquality.Approximately
    3.5milliondeathsrelatedtoinadequatewatersup-
    ply,sanitationandhygieneoccureachyear,predomi-
    nantlyindevelopingcountries(WHO,2008a)(see
    Section4.1andChapter34).Diarrhoealdiseases,often
    relatedtocontaminateddrinkingwater,areestimated
    tocausethedeathofmorethan1.5millionchildren
    undertheageofveperyear(Blacketal.,2010).The
    MDGsstatethatwaterbornediseasesrelatedtounsafe
    CHAPTER3 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES
    TABLE 3.3
    Keywaterqualityrisks
    Risk Waterborne
    diseases
    Toxic
    contamination
    Oxygen decit
    and eutrophication
    Poisoning Ecosystem
    modication
    Severity
    Millions of cases
    Increasing trends
    Thousands of cases
    of serious impacts
    in hot spots
    Lack of reliable
    documentation
    Thousands of km
    2
    Decline in coastal
    sheries
    Decrease in
    recreational value
    Hundreds of km
    2
    Destruction of
    sheries
    Increase in
    invasive species
    Increase in
    invasive pests
    Increase in
    turbidity
    Main drivers
    Natural Processes Increasing
    ooding incidents
    Saltwater intrusion Heat waves Seawater
    intrusion
    Heating
    Erosion after
    forest res
    Social Urban migration
    Poverty
    Waste disposal
    attitudes
    Poverty
    Poor application
    of fertilizers
    Waste disposal
    attitudes
    Poverty
    Poverty
    Economic Inadequate
    investment in
    wastewater
    treatment
    Industrial waste
    and spills
    Intensive
    agriculture
    Mining
    Urban wastewater
    Industrial
    wastewater
    Agriculture
    Urban wastewater
    Industrial
    wastewater
    Mining
    Agriculture
    Forestry
    Urban wastewater
    Industrial
    wastewater
    Hydropower
    Response options
    Interventions Urban wastewater
    treatment
    Industrial waste
    treatment
    Clean technology
    Warning systems
    Sustainable
    agricultural
    practices
    Nutrient removal in
    wastewater
    Industrial waste
    treatment
    Clean technology
    Integrated pest
    management
    Sustainable
    agricultural
    practices
    Sustainable
    forestry
    Nutrient removal
    in wastewater
    97 WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY
    TABLE 3.4
    Summaryofpossiblewaterqualityinterventionsbyscale
    Scale Education
    and capacity-
    building
    Policy/law/
    governance
    Financial/
    economic
    Technology/
    infrastructure
    Data/
    monitoring
    International/national Initiate training
    and awareness
    building
    Institute integrated
    approaches
    Institute pollution
    prevention
    Institute polluter/
    beneciary pays
    system
    Promote best
    practice and
    support capacity
    building
    Develop
    monitoring
    framework
    Watershed Strategic level for
    raising awareness
    of the impacts
    of individuals on
    water quality
    Establish training
    for practitioners
    and develop best
    practice
    Create watershed-
    based planning
    units.
    Develop water
    quality goals
    Institute pricing
    systems
    Institute cost
    recovery
    Create incentives
    for efciency
    Invest in
    infrastructure
    and appropriate
    technologies
    Build regional
    capacity to collect
    and process water
    quality data
    Community/
    household
    Connect
    individual/
    community
    behaviour to
    water quality
    impacts.
    Build capacity
    to make
    improvements
    in sanitation/
    wastewater
    treatment
    Amend codes to
    allow innovative
    storm water
    treatment options.
    Promote access to
    information
    Encourage
    investments
    Consider
    decentralized
    treatment
    technologies
    Carry out
    and analyse
    household/
    community
    surveys
    Source: Adapted from UNEP (2010, p. 73).
    Poor quality water is expensive.Poorwaterqualityin-
    cursmanyeconomiccosts:degradationofecosystem
    services;health-relatedcosts;impactsoneconomic
    activitiessuchasagriculture,industrialproduction
    andtourism;increasedwatertreatmentcosts;andre-
    ducedpropertyvaluesamongothers.Insomeregions
    thesecostscanbesignicant(UNEP,2010).Figure3.16
    showstheestimatedannualcostofpoorwaterqual-
    ityincountriesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaas
    ashareofGDP(WorldBank,2007).Projectionsfor
    theseandotherregionsshowincreasingscarcityof
    freshwaterinforthcomingyears.Thecostsassociated
    withaddressingwaterqualityproblemscantherefore
    beexpectedtoincrease.
    Conversely,takingactiontoimproveorensurethemain-
    tenanceofwaterqualitycansavelivesandachievesignif-
    icantsavings.Examplesincludeareductioninindustrial
    productioncostsandtheuseofnaturalwastetreatment
    servicesprovidedbyfreshwaterecosystems.Although
    moreresearchisneededtobetterunderstandandquan-
    tifytheeconomiccostsandbenetsofindustryand
    ecosystemservices,mostevidencesuggeststhatmany
    socialandeconomicbenetsderivedfromaddressing
    waterqualityissuestodaywillincreasinglyoutweighthe
    futurecostsofinactionordelayedresponses.
    A global water quality assessment framework is neces-
    sary. Whiletherearemanypossiblewaystoaddress
    98

    Notes
    1 Thismeasureisnotnecessarilyarobustindicatorofacountrys
    potentialforwater-relatedchallenges.CanadaandBrazil,for
    example,bothhaveaveryhighlevelofavailablewaterper
    capita,yetarestillsubjecttovariouswater-relatedproblems.
    2 Teleconnectionsareclimateanomaliesthatarerelatedbut
    oftenwidelyspacedindistanceand/ortime.Therelationship
    betweentwoclimatepatternsisnotnecessarilyoneofcause
    andefect.Oftenunusualclimatephenomenaarecaused
    bysomethirdfactor,suchaswhenElNioeventsincrease
    thechanceofaboveaverageprecipitationinthesouth-west
    USAfromJanuarythroughMarchandincreasethechance
    ofdroughtinIndonesiafromJunethroughAugust.Formore
    informationseehttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/
    HighWater/high_water1a.php
    3 Formoreinformationsee
    http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino-home.html
    4 Formoreinformationsee:http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
    5 ForagoodresourceonNAO,itsclimateimpactsandother
    information,readersarereferredto
    http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
    6 SeethewebsiteoftheAtlanticMeridionalOverturning
    CirculationProgramformoredetails:
    http://www.atlanticmoc.org/
    7 Almostallvaluesmentionedinthisparagraphareglobally
    aggregatedoraveraged,andthuscannotbeusedtodraw
    conclusionsonconditionsatalocalorregionalscale.
    8 Siebertetal.(2010)estimateglobalconsumptiveirrigation
    wateruseat1,277km
    3
    peryear,or48%ofglobalagricultural
    waterwithdrawals.Theirestimateforgroundwateruseis545
    km
    3
    peryear,whichisfairlyconsistentwiththeestimated
    globalgroundwaterabstractionforirrigation,takinginto
    accountirrigationwaterlosses.
    9 ExamplesoflargeaquifersinthiscategoryaretheHighland
    PlainsandCentralValleyaquifersintheUSA,thenorth-west
    Indiaplainsaquifers,theNorthChinaPlainaquiferandthe
    AustralianGreatArtesianBasin.
    10 FormoredetailsseeChapter36.
    11 FormoredetailsseeChapter36.
    12 TheUnitedNationsGEMS/WaterProgrammeprovides
    scienticallysounddataandinformationonthestateand
    trendsofglobalinlandwaterqualityrequiredasabasisforthe
    sustainablemanagementoftheworldsfreshwatertosupport
    globalenvironmentalassessmentsanddecision-making
    processes(seehttp://www.gemswater.org/).
    waterqualityissuesfromtheinternationaltothe
    householdlevel,thereisanurgentlackofwaterqual-
    itydatatosupportdecision-makingandmanagement
    processes.Aglobalwaterqualityassessmentframe-
    workisneededtodrawonexistingnational,regional
    andkeybasin-leveldatasources.Suchaframework
    wouldgowellbeyondthecurrentGlobalEnvironment
    MonitoringSystem(GEMS)
    12
    mandatetoincludea
    hostofotherinternational,regionalandnationalpro-
    grammes.AccordingtoAlcamo(2011)thistypeof
    frameworkcouldvaluefreshwatergoodsandservices,
    provideanassessmentofwaterqualityanddatapush,
    supportthedevelopmentandapplicationofinterna-
    tionalwaterqualityguidelines,developinternational
    governanceandinstitutionstosupportwaterquality
    protection,andincludeanassessmentofecologically
    basedtechnologiesforrestoringwaterquality.
    Suchaframeworkwouldalsohelptoincreaseunder-
    standingofthestateofwaterquality,itscausesand
    recenttrends;identifyhotspots;testandvalidatepol-
    icyandmanagementoptions;provideafoundationfor
    scenariosusedtounderstandandplanforappropriate
    futureactions;andprovidemuch-neededmonitoring
    benchmarkers(Alcamo,2011).AsdescribedinChapter
    6,thereisgrowinginterestfrommultiplestakeholders
    inimproveddata,informationandaccounting,allof
    whichneedstobetranslatedintoimproveddataavail-
    ability.Technologicaladvancementsarealsomakingit
    easiertomonitorandreportonvariousdimensionsof
    waterresources.Themainconstraintstofulllingthese
    importantneedsareinstitutionalstructuresandman-
    dates,aswellaspoliticalwill,eventhoughthebenets
    ofimprovedwaterqualitymonitoringarelikelytoout-
    weighthecosts,especiallyinareaswithdensehuman
    populationsorintenseagriculturalactivity.
    3.3.1Waterqualityrisksandpotentialinterventions
    Themultitudeofwaterqualityparameters,uncertainties
    andimpactsmakeswaterresourcesmanagementacom-
    plexandmultidimensionalissue,particularlywithrespect
    tohumanactivities.Improvedmanagementofvulnerabil-
    ityandrisksisessentialtocopewithas-yetunknownand
    unexpectedfactorsinaneraofacceleratedchangesand
    newuncertainties.Table3.3providesasummaryofwa-
    terqualityrisksdescribingtheseverityofeach,themain
    driversinvolvedandthepotentialresponseoptions.
    InadditiontotheresponseoptionsprovidedinTable
    3.3,somebroadresponseoptionsareprovidedin
    Table3.4.
    CHAPTER3 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES
    99
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    CHAPTER3 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES
    101 WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    CHAPTER 4
    Beyond demand: Waters social and
    environmental benets
    Shutterstock/BrandonAlms
    Red-eyedtreefrog

    Authors RajagopalanBalaji,JamieBartram,DavidCoates,RichardConnor,JohnHarding,
    MollyHellmuth,LizaLeclerc,VasudhaPangareandJenniferGentryShields

    The many benets humans derive through water are by no means limited to the ve major
    use sectors described in Chapter 2. Water also provides a range of benets through its
    impacts on human health. Healthy ecosystems provide an even broader array of benets
    and services to individuals and societies. In addition to these benets, water can also create
    serious risks when there is too much of it, as in the case of oods, or too little of it, as during
    periods of drought, especially in areas already subject to the processes of desertication
    and land degradation. Unfortunately, in many parts of the world, access to waters
    benets are not equitably balanced, nor are vulnerabilities to water-related hazards, which
    disproportionally afect the poorest populations, and women and children in particular. This
    chapter examines water in relation to each of these important issues.
    The rst section, on water and human health, focuses on water-related diseases in the
    context of public health interventions, water management, drinking water supply and
    sanitation, and hygiene, identifying trends and hotspots, key external drivers and related
    uncertainties, and provides insights on actions for combating the major water-related disease
    burdens at diferent levels. The following section describes how gender diferences in access
    to and control over water resources are key ingredients of many water-related challenges
    worldwide. The third section explores how healthy ecosystems ofer solutions to achieving
    water-related objectives and help reduce uncertainty and risk as they deliver multiple
    benets (or services) that are essential for sustainable development many of these vital
    services are derived directly from water, and all are underpinned by it. The fourth section, on
    water-related hazards, reports on recent trends and examines the increased risks disasters
    create with respect to property, lives and livelihoods. The fth section describes how the
    processes of desertication, land degradation and drought (DLDD) are increasing pressure
    on water resources, adding a new layer of uncertainty and risk in regions already facing water
    scarcity, and presents diferent measures that are being applied worldwide to reduce the
    impacts of DLDD.
    The chapter closes with a discussion of the current balance between limited and often
    variable water supplies (Chapter 3), growing demands from the major user groups
    (Chapter 2), and the need to maintain benets and reduce risks (this chapter). This section
    addresses concepts such as water stress and water scarcity, making the case that balancing
    the benets and maximizing the returns from water and its multiple uses is essential for
    sustainable development and poverty eradication.
    With the exception of Section 4.6, the material in this chapter has been condensed from
    the challenge area reports (Part 3/Volume 2) Water and health (Chapter 34), Ecosystems
    (Chapter 21), Water-related disasters (Chapter 27) and Desertication, land degradation and
    drought and their impacts on water resources in the drylands (Chapter 28) as well as the
    special report Water and gender (Chapter 35).
    103
    ofdiseaserisk,andhighlightthewaysinwhichstrate-
    giesarealreadybeinginvestigatedandimplemented
    tocombattheserisks.
    4.1.2Drivers
    Theglobaldriverspredictedtohavethegreatestefect
    onhumanhealthviathewaterenvironmentinclude
    demography,agriculture,infrastructureandclimate
    change.
    Populationgrowthandurbanizationcansignicantly
    impacthumanhealththroughincreasingwaterde-
    mandsandincreasingwaterpollution.Risingdemand
    forwaterresourcesmaycontributetowaterscarcity,
    withpotentialimplicationsforreliabilityofdrinking
    wateraccess,waterqualityandhygiene.Therewillbe
    atendencyforincreasedincidenceofdiseasestrans-
    mittedintheabsenceofsufcientsafewaterforwash-
    ingandpersonalhygiene,orwhenthereiscontact
    withcontaminatedwater.Theseincludediarrhoeal
    diseases,intestinalnematodeinfectionsandtrachoma.
    Rapidpopulationgrowthinurbanorperi-urbanareas
    thatlackservicesforreliableprovisionofsafewater,
    basicsanitationservicesorsolidwastemanagement
    canleadtoincreasesinsmall-scalewaterstorage
    (BradleyandBos,2010),waterpollutionandgrowing
    proportionsofthepopulationexposedtopathogens
    (WHO,2007).Suchsituationsamplifytheriskfordis-
    easessuchasdiarrhoea,intestinalnematodeinfections,
    trachoma,schistosomiasis,dengueandlymphatic
    lariasis.
    Theacceleratingprocessofglobalurbanizationtrans-
    latesintoincreasedexposuretopoorlydesignedor
    managedwatersystemsandpooraccesstohygiene
    andsanitationfacilitiesinpublicsettings(e.g.health-
    carecentres,schools,publicofces).Thisresultsinan
    increasedriskofdiseaseoutbreaks.Actiontoreduce
    thisriskinpublicsettingsisapublichealthpriority.
    Themorbidityandmortalityassociatedwithhealth-
    care-associatedinfectionsrepresentsalossofhealth-
    sectorandhouseholdresourcesworldwide.Schools,
    particularlyinruralandperi-urbanareas,oftenlack
    drinkingwater,sanitationandhand-washingfacili-
    ties.Theresultingtransmissionofdiseasemanifestsas
    signicantabsenteeism.Publicsettingsprovideanop-
    portunitytoeducatevisitorsaboutminimizingdisease
    transmissionwithtargetedmessagesandamodel
    safeenvironment,whichcanbeemulatedathome.
    Nationalpolicies,standards,guidelinesonsafeprac-
    tices,trainingandpromotioncanaimtoreducethe
    4.1Waterandhumanhealth
    Improvingwaterresourcemanagement,increasingac-
    cesstosafedrinkingwaterandbasicsanitation,and
    promotinghygiene(WaSH)havethepotentialtoim-
    provethequalityoflifeofbillionsofindividuals.The
    globalimportanceofwater,sanitationandhygiene
    forimprovinghealthisreectedintheUnitedNations
    MillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs),explicitly,Goal
    7,Targetc,whichaimstoreducebyhalftheproportion
    ofpeoplewithoutsustainableaccesstosafedrinking
    waterandbasicsanitationby2015).Yetwaterman-
    agement,drinkingwatersupplyandsanitation,and
    hygienearealsocriticalfortheachievementofMDGs
    4,5and6,andforsustainingtheachievementsthusfar
    toreducechildmortality,improvematernalhealthand
    reducetheburdenofmalaria.
    Aspublichealthinterventions,watermanagement,
    drinkingwatersupplyandsanitation,andhygienecan
    formtheprimarybasisforpreventionagainstasig-
    nicantmajorityoftheglobalburdenofwater-relat-
    eddisease.Thisincludesdiarrhoealdiseases,arsenic
    anduoridepoisoning,intestinalnematodeinfec-
    tions,malnutrition,trachoma,schistosomiasis,malaria,
    onchocerciasis,dracunculiasis,Japaneseencephali-
    tis,lymphaticlariasisanddengue.However,eforts
    toimplementsuccessfulWaSHpublichealthinter-
    ventionstocombatthesediseasesarecomplicated
    bythefactthateachisassociatedwithavarietyof
    economic,societalandenvironmentaldrivingforces.
    Responsibilitieswithingovernmentsarefragmented
    overanumberofentitiesatdiferentlevels,andco-
    ordinationamongtheseandacrosssectorscontinues
    tobeachallenge.Moreover,largeknowledgegaps
    currentlypreventadequatepredictionoftrendsand
    regionalhotspots.Nevertheless,illustrativeexamples
    revealhowtheseinterventionscancontributetore-
    ducingorpreventingdisease.
    4.1.1Trendsandhotspots
    Identifyingtrendsandhotspotsaroundtheinterface
    ofwaterandhealthisextremelydifcult,duetochal-
    lengesinmonitoringandreporting,alackofinforma-
    tiononenvironmentalhealthdeterminants,andthe
    interplayofnon-environmentaldeterminantsonhealth.
    Nevertheless,availableinsightsdoprovideabasisfor
    efectiveaction.Despitealackoflocalizeddisease
    prevalenceestimates,somediseasesareclearlyonthe
    rise(suchascholera,seeBox4.1),andselectreasons
    fortheseincreasescanbeaddressed.Threeexamples
    areprovidedbelowthatillustratethecomplexnature
    WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    104 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER4
    BOX 4.1
    Cholera
    Ingestionof
    infectiousdose
    ofV. cholerae
    V. cholerae
    proliferatein
    associationwith
    commensalcopepods
    Algaepromotesurvival
    ofV. cholerae andprovidefood
    forzooplankton
    Abioticconditionsfavourgrowthof
    V. cholerae and/orplanktonand
    expressionofvirulence
    Transmissiontohumans
    Zooplankton:copepods,
    othercrustaceans
    Phytoplanktonand
    aquaticplants
    Temperature,pH
    Fe
    3+
    ,salinity
    sunlight
    SeasonalEfects
    Sunlight
    Temperature
    Precipitation
    Monsoons
    ClimateVariability
    Climatechange
    ElNio-SouthernOscillation
    NorthAtlanticOscillation
    Vibrio cholerae
    Human
    socio-economics,
    demographics,
    sanitation
    NumberofcholeracasesreportedtotheWorldHealthOrganization
    between2000and2010
    350,000
    300,000
    250,000
    200,000
    150,000
    100,000
    50,000
    0
    Numberofcases
    Year
    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
    Source: Adapted from WHO (2011a, g. 1).
    Upto80%ofcholeracasescanbetreatedsimplyandsuc-
    cessfullythroughadministrationoforalrehydrationsalts.
    Preventionofcholera,however,reliesontheavailabil-
    ityanduseofsafewater,improvedsanitation,including
    Hierarchicalmodelforenvironmentalcholeratransmission
    Source: Lipp et al. (2002, g. 1, p. 763, reproduced with permission from The American Society for Microbiology).
    Choleraisanacutediarrhoealdiseasecausedby
    theingestionoffoodorwatercontaminatedwith
    thebacteriumVibrio cholerae.Everyyear,there
    areanestimated35millioncholeracasesand
    100,000120,000deathsduetocholera.(WHO
    estimatesthatonly510%ofcasesareofcially
    reported.)Moreover,thenumberofcholeracases
    continuestorise(seeguretotheleft):thenumber
    ofcasesreportedtotheWorldHealthOrganization
    (WHO)increasedby16%from2008to2009,43%
    from2009to2010,andtheoverallincreaseforthe
    decade20002010was130%(WHO,2010a).The
    massiveincreasein2010islargelyduetotheout-
    breakthatbeganinHaitiinOctober2010,following
    anearthquakeinJanuary2010.
    Choleraisendemicinregionswithpoorsocio-
    economicconditions,rudimentarysanitarysys-
    tems,absenceofwastewatertreatmentandwhere
    publichygieneandsafedrinkingwaterislacking
    (Huqetal.,1996).Specically,choleraisendemic
    wastewatertreatment,andhygiene.Preventionstrategies
    arealsocriticalinavertingormitigatingcholeraoutbreaks.
    InthecaseoftheoutbreakinHaiti,thecountryspub-
    lichealthresponsestrategy,ledbytheMinistryofPublic
    105
    numberofinfectionsassociatedwiththesesettings
    (WHO,2011c;WHO/UNICEF,2009).
    Agricultureisessentialtofoodsecurityandadequate
    nutrition;yetcertainpracticescanadverselyimpact
    humanhealthbyincreasingwaterwithdrawalsfor
    irrigation,changingwaterregimesinagro-ecosys-
    tems,andincreasingwaterpollution.Growthinag-
    ricultureandindustryiscurrentlyreportedtobethe
    maincauseofsurfacewaterandgroundwaterqual-
    itydeterioration(WWAP,2006).Pooragricultural
    practicescanleadtopollutionofsurfacewaterand
    groundwaterwithpesticides,pollutants,nutrients
    andsediments.Impactsalsoincludeincreasedbreed-
    inggroundsfordiseasevectorsandcontaminationof
    watersupplieswithpathogensfromanimalmanure.
    Diseasesthatarelikelytoincreasewithagricultural
    expansionandintensicationincludediarrhoealdis-
    eases,trachoma,schistosomiasis,lymphaticlariasis
    andmalaria(Jiangetal.,1997;Nygardetal.,2004;
    PrssandMariotti,2000;Rejmankovaetal.,2006).
    Contaminatedwaterscanalsofacilitatetransmission
    ofdiarrhoealdiseaseswhenwastewater(sewage)
    andexcretaareusedtoirrigateorfertilizecrops.This
    practiceisemployedincreasinglyinmanyperi-urban
    areasoftheworld,especiallythoseinaridandsemi-
    aridzonescharacterizedbyintensecompetitionfor
    waterbetweenagricultureandurbanuses,and,com-
    binedwiththechangingnutritionalhabitsofurban
    populations,posesarealhealththreat(Drechselet
    al.,2010).Expansionofagriculturemayalsoleadto
    deforestation,asregionsseektoenlargetheareas
    availableforagriculturalpractices.Deforestationcan
    impacthumanhealthbyremovingtheforestbuf-
    ersthatcontributetocontrollingnon-pointsource
    pollutantsfromenteringwatercourses,increasing
    theconcentrationofpollutantsdownstream.Non-
    pointsourcepollutantsincludenutrients,chemicals,
    sedimentsandpathogens,suchasthosethatcause
    diarrhoealdisease.Inadditiontoincreasingwater
    pollution,deforestationalsoafectsdiseaseratesby
    changingvectorandhostecologyandbehaviour,po-
    tentiallyincreasingtheratesofmalariaandonchocer-
    ciasis(Adjamietal.,2004;Walshetal.,1993;Wilson
    etal.,2002).
    Theconstructionofinfrastructure,includingdamsand
    irrigationprojects,playsanimportantpartinmeeting
    demandsforwater.Yetwhiletheycontributetofood
    andenergyandhelpmanagetheextremesofwa-
    ter,waterresourcesinfrastructurecanalsoadversely
    WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    inmanypartsofAfricaandAsia,andhasmorerecently
    becomeendemicintheAmericas.Riskfactorsinendemic
    regionscanincludeproximitytosurfacewaters,highpopu-
    lationdensitiesandloweducationallevels(Alietal.,2002),
    whilefactorsafectingV. choleraeincludetemperature,sa-
    linity,sunlight,pH,iron,andphytoplanktonandzooplank-
    tongrowth(Lippetal.,2002).Thegurebelowdescribesa
    hierarchicalmodelforenvironmentalcholeratransmission.
    Theriskofcholeraoutbreaksintensiesduringhumanitar-
    iancrises,suchasconictsandoods,anddisplacementof
    largepopulations.Typicalat-riskareasincludeperi-urban
    slumswithoutbasicwaterandsanitationinfrastructure,and
    refugeecamps,whereminimumrequirementsofsafewa-
    terandsanitationarenotmet.Infact,there-emergenceof
    cholerahascoincidedwiththeincreaseinpopulationsliv-
    inginunsanitaryconditions(Barrettetal.,1998).Forexam-
    ple,theonsetandspreadofthecholeraepidemicof1991in
    Peruarecloselyrelatedtothedeteriorationinthedrinking
    watersupply,sanitationandhealthservicesbroughtbythe
    economiccrisisofthe1980s(Brandling-Bennett,Libeland
    Miglinico,1994).
    HealthandPopulationandsupportedbyWHOand
    otherpartners,hasincorporatedmultiplehealthsolu-
    tionstoreducethelevelsofmorbidityandmortalitydue
    tocholera:deliveryofsoapforhandwashing;delivery
    ofchlorineandotherproductsordevicesforhouse-
    holdwatertreatment;constructionoflatrines;improved
    hygieneinpublicplaces(suchasmarkets,schools,
    healthcarefacilitiesandprisons);andimplementation
    ofhealtheducationcampaignsthroughvariousmedia
    includingcommunitymobilizers(WHO,2010b).Infact,
    theavailabilityofsafewatersuppliesmayprovetobe
    moreimportantforcombatingcholerathanantibiot-
    icsorvaccines.Arecentstudyshowedthattheprovi-
    sionofsafewatermighthaveaverted105,000cholera
    cases(95%CondenceInterval88,000116,000)and
    1,500deaths(95%CondenceInterval1,1002,300)in
    HaitibetweenMarchandNovemberof2011morethan
    theestimatedindividualefectsofantibioticsorvaccines
    (AndrewsandBasu,2011).Withincreasingpopulations
    livinginperi-urbanslumsandrefugeecamps,aswellas
    increasingnumbersofpeopleexposedtotheimpactsof
    humanitariancrises,theriskfromcholerawilllikelyin-
    creaseworldwide,reinforcingtheneedforsafedrinking
    water,adequatesanitationandimprovedhygienebehav-
    iourundertheseconditions.
    106
    Globalclimatechangeisexpectedtoexacerbate
    currentstressesonwaterresourcesfrompopulation
    growthandlanduse,andalsotoincreasethefre-
    quencyandseverityofextremeweatherandhydro-
    logicalevents(e.g.inlandooding).Higherwater
    temperatures,increasedprecipitationintensityand
    longerperiodsoflowowsareprojectedtoexac-
    erbatemanyformsofwaterpollutionandincrease
    pressureondiseasessuchasmalaria,schistosomiasis
    anddiarrhoea(Batesetal.,2008;Koelleetal.,2005;
    Zhouetal.,2008).Forexample,climatehasbeen
    foundtoinuencecholeradynamicsinBangladesh
    (BoumaandPascual,2001;Colwell,1996;Koelleet
    al.,2005;Pascualetal.,2000;Rodoetal.,2002;),
    Peru(Colwell,1996;Speelmonetal.,2000)andve
    countriesinAfrica(ConstantindeMagnyetal.,2007).
    Morefrequentheavyrainfallswillalsolikelyoverload
    thecapacityofsewersystems,resultinginuntreated
    impacthumanhealth.Damsandirrigationprojects
    can,ifnotappropriatelydesignedandmanaged,cre-
    atebreedinggroundsfortheblackiesthatspread
    onchocerciasisandthemosquitoesthatspreadma-
    laria,lymphaticlariasisandJapaneseencephalitis
    (Erlangeretal.,2005;Keiseretal.,2005a;Keiseretal.,
    2005b).Theseprojectsmayalsocreatehabitatsthat
    encouragegrowthofthehostsnailofschistosomes
    (Molyneuxetal.,2008).
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER4
    BOX 4.2
    Harmfulalgalblooms
    BOX 4.3
    Dengue
    Harmfulalgalblooms(HABs)arealgaeharmfultohumans,
    plantsoranimals,asopposedtomostalgalspecies,which
    arenontoxicandconstitutenaturalpartsofmarineand
    freshwaterecosystems.WhileHABsdonotrepresenta
    dominantglobaldiseaseburden,thereisatrendofincreas-
    ingbloomdetection,whichlikelyindicatesarealincrease
    inincidenceaswellasincreasedsurveillance.Thereasons
    forthisgrowtharevaried,andincludenaturalmechanisms
    ofspeciesdispersalandanthropogeniccauses,suchas
    pollution,climatechangeandtransportviaballastwater
    (GranliandTurner,2006).Approximately60,000indi-
    vidualcasesandclustersofhumanintoxicationoccuran-
    nuallyaroundtheworld(VanDolahetal.,2001).Although
    themechanismsbywhichHABsafecthumanhealthare
    notfullyunderstood,governmentauthoritiesarecon-
    ductingmonitoringforHABsanddevelopingguidelines
    forpublichealthactioninordertomitigatetheirimpact.
    Forexample,theUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgency
    (EPA)hasaddedspecicHAB-relatedalgaetoitsDrinking
    WaterContaminantCandidateList,whichidentiesorgan-
    ismsandtoxinsbelievedtobeprioritiesforinvestigation.
    DirectcontrolofHABsismuchmoredifcultandcontro-
    versialthanmitigation,andstrategiesincludemechanical,
    biological,chemical,geneticandenvironmentalcontrol.
    Conversely,preventionofHABsiscurrentlyhamperedby
    alackofunderstandingofthecausesofHABformation
    inmanyareas,aswellasaninabilitytomodifyorcontrol
    knowndeterminingfactors.Forexample,increasedin-
    putsofnutrientsfromagricultural,domesticandindustrial
    sourcesareaknowncauseformanyHABs.Yetmuchofthe
    nutrientinputcomesfromnon-pointsources(Andersonet
    al.,2002),whichareoftendifculttocontrol.Themostef-
    fectivestrategiesincludecontrollinglanduse,maintaining
    landscapeintegrity,andimplementingstructuralandnon-
    structuralpracticesforreducingnonpointsourcepollution
    (e.g.stormwaterdetentionpondsandimprovedinfrastruc-
    turedesign)(Piehler,2008).Astheworldspopulationcon-
    tinuestogrow,itsdemandsoncoastalresourceswillmost
    certainlyincrease,reinforcingtheneedtounderstandHAB
    phenomenaanddevelopsoundpoliciesandpractices.
    In2004,approximately9millionpeoplecontractedthe
    febrileillnessdengue(WHO,2008).Globalincidencecon-
    tinuestorisewithapproximately2.5billionpeoplenow
    atrisk.Thereisnodrugorvaccineforthevirus;therefore,
    safedrinkingwaterandsanitationarekeyinterventions
    forthisdisease.Dengueistransmittedbytwomosquito
    species,Aedes aegyptiandAedes albopictus,whichbreed
    intemporarywater-storagecontainersinthedomesticen-
    vironment.Thus,safestorageofhouseholdwatersupplies
    isacriticalcomponentofdengueprevention,especially
    inareasthatpracticerainwaterharvestinganduselarge
    householdwaterstoragevessels(Mariappanetal.,2008).
    Householdwatercontainerscanbettedwithscreensor
    properlidstoexcludemosquitoes,buttheirscrupulous
    maintenanceandconsistentuseishardtoachieve.Covers
    treatedwithinsecticidecanfurtherreducedensitiesof
    denguevectorsandpotentiallyimpactdenguetransmis-
    sion(Kroegeretal.,2006;Sengetal.,2008).Watercon-
    tainerscanalsobeeliminatedentirelywithpipedwater
    supplies.However,theextensionofpipedwatersupplies
    tovillageshasexpandedtherangeofdenguefromurban
    toruralenvironments,wheretheunreliabilityofpiped
    watersupplieshasforcedpeopletostorewaterintheir
    homesforlongerperiodsoftimewhenpreviouslythey
    reliedonwellwater(e.g.Nguyenetal.,2011).Inefect,an
    integratedapproach,combininghouseholdwatertreat-
    mentandsafestorage,isnecessaryforthereductionof
    diarrhoealaswellasotherwater-associateddiseases(e.g.
    dengueandmalaria)inthehouseholdsandcommunities
    ofdevelopinganddevelopedcountries.
    107
    solutionswereidentied:access to safe drinking
    water, access to basic sanitation, improved hygiene,
    environmental management,andtheuse of health
    impact assessments. Implementationoftheseac-
    tionsservestoreducetheburdenofmultipledis-
    easesandimprovethequalityoflifeofbillionsof
    individuals.
    4.In-depthstudiestargetingthefutureimpactsof
    powerfulunderlyingdrivers,suchasthoseidenti-
    edinthisreport,arerequiredtomoreaccurately
    identifytherisksandopportunitiesrelatedtowa-
    terandhealth.Thesestudieswouldevaluatethe
    complexinteractionsaroundpopulation,develop-
    mentandurbanization,similartoThe2030Vision
    Study,whichdeterminedthemajorrisks,uncer-
    taintiesandopportunitiesrelatedtotheresilience
    ofwatersupplyandsanitationinthefaceofcli-
    matechange.
    5.Protectionofhumanhealthrequirescollabora-
    tionamongmultiplesectors,includingactorsand
    stakeholdersinnon-waterandnon-healthsectors.
    Determininghowpastandpresent(andindeedpro-
    jectedfuture)drivingforcescontributetothebur-
    denofdiseaseprovidesabasisforthedevelopment
    oftheaforementionedprimarypreventionstrategies.
    Outliningthispathwayforeachofthemajorwater-
    associateddiseasesleadstotheformulationofvekey
    actionsforcombatingtheburdenstheycause:access
    tosafedrinkingwater,accesstobasicsanitation,im-
    provedhygiene,environmentalmanagementandthe
    useofhealthimpactassessments.Implementationof
    theseactionswouldcontributetoreducingthebur-
    densofdiversediseasesandimprovethequalityoflife
    forbillionsofindividuals.
    ThisfactwasreafrmedinMay2011,whenthe64th
    WorldHealthAssemblyunanimouslyadoptedresolu-
    tionsondrinking-water,sanitationandhealth(WHA,
    2011b)andcholera:mechanismforpreventionand
    control(WHA,2011a).Theseresolutionsestablished
    thepolicyframeworkforWHO,itssisterUNagencies
    inparticularUNICEF,andtheministriesofhealthof
    its193MemberStatestotakedeterminedactionto
    promoteaccesstosafeandcleandrinkingwater,and
    basicsanitationandhygienepractices.MemberStates
    wereurgedtore-afrmastrongrolefordrinkingwater,
    sanitationandhygieneconsiderationsintheirnational
    publichealthstrategies.
    sewage,withitsassociatedpathogens,owinginto
    waterbodies,withatendencytowardsincreasesin
    diarrhoealdiseases,includingoutbreaks.
    TheVision2030study(WHO/DFID,2009)advocates
    theneedtointegrateresilienceofwaterandsanita-
    tioninfrastructureintotheplanning,policy-making
    andmanagementofdrinkingwaterandsanitation,to
    adaptandcopeefectivelywiththepotentialadverse
    impactsofclimatevariability.Amajorparadigmshift
    fromthebusiness-as-usualapproachesindrinking
    waterandsanitationsystemsandservicesisessen-
    tialinordertoadapttoclimatechangeandtransform
    threatsintoopportunities.Optimizingresilienceofwa-
    terandsanitationinfrastructurewillmaximizehealth
    benetsoffutureinvestments,andensurethatdrink-
    ingwaterandsanitationinfrastructureremainfunc-
    tionalinthefaceofclimatechange-inducedextreme
    weatherevents.
    Thereisanurgentneedtoimproveourunderstanding
    ofthedynamicsrelatingtothewaysinwhicheach
    ofthesedriversafecthumanhealth:thecomplexset
    offactorsthatgeneratethem,thecharacteristicsof
    populationsthatincreasetheirvulnerability,andthe
    identicationofpopulationsmostatriskforeachof
    thesethreats(MyersandPatz,2009).Suchimproved
    understandingwouldalsoprovideabasisformeas-
    uresaimedatreducinghealthrisksfromwater-relat-
    eddiseases,andwouldtherebyaidresourceman-
    agersandpolicy-makersindeterminingthehealth
    impactsassociatedwiththeirdecisions,andallow
    aidorganizationstotargettheirresourcesmore
    efectively.
    4.1.3Optionsandconsequences
    Key messages
    1.Theglobaldriverspredictedtohavethegreatest
    efectondiseaseratesviathewaterenvironment
    arepopulation growth and urbanization, agriculture,
    infrastructure and global climate change.Trendsin
    thesedriversdirectlyandindirectlyimpacttheglob-
    alburdenofdisease,largelyadversely,andincrease
    theoveralluncertaintyinfuturehumanhealth.
    2. Therearenumerousnon-water-relatedenviron-
    mentaldeterminantsofhealth,aswellasnon-en-
    vironmentaldeterminantsofhealththatconfound
    theattributionofhealthtrendsandhotspotsto
    water.
    3. Byoutliningtheenvironment-healthnexusforeach
    ofthemajorwater-relateddiseasegroups,vekey
    WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    108
    Determininghowpast,presentandpredictedfuture
    drivingforcescontributetothewater-relateddisease
    burdenhasalsoledtotheidenticationofmajorrisks,
    uncertaintiesandopportunities.Theseincludetherisk
    ofincreasingfailuresofagingwaterinfrastructureand,
    conversely,theopportunitytoincreasetheoverallim-
    pactofwaterresourcesandwatersupplyandsanita-
    tioninfrastructurethroughimprovedmanagement.The
    impactofsuchactionsimprovesuseoflimitednancial
    resources,therebyenhancingbothaccesstowaterand
    sanitation,andassociatedservicequality,andleadsin-
    directlytoimprovementsinwiderhealthindicatorssuch
    asmalnutrition.
    Additionalin-depthstudiesarerequiredtomoreac-
    curatelyidentifytherisksandopportunitiesrelatedto
    waterandhealth.The2030VisionStudy,commissioned
    bytheUnitedKingdomDepartmentforInternational
    Development(DFID)andWHO,performedsuchan
    analysisofthemajorrisks,uncertaintiesandopportuni-
    tiesrelatedtotheresilienceofwatersupplyandsanita-
    tioninthefaceofclimatechange(WHO/DFID,2009).
    Thestudybroughttogetherevidencefromprojections
    onclimatechange,trendsintechnologyapplication,
    anddevelopingknowledgeaboutdrinkingwaterand
    sanitationadaptabilityandresilience,toidentifykey
    policy,planningandoperationalchangesrequiredto
    adapttoclimatechange,particularlyinlowandmiddle-
    incomecountrieswhereaccesstowatersupplyand
    sanitationservicesaremorelimited.Fivekeyconclu-
    sionsresultedfromthisstudy:
    1.Climatechangeiswidelyperceivedasathreat
    ratherthananopportunity.Theremaybesignicant
    overallbenetstohealthanddevelopmentin
    adaptingtoclimatechange.
    2.Majorchangesinpolicyandplanningareneeded
    ifongoingandfutureinvestmentsarenottobe
    wasted.
    3.Potentialadaptivecapacityishighbutrarely
    achieved.Resilienceneedstobeintegratedinto
    drinkingwaterandsanitationmanagementtocope
    withpresentclimatevariability.Itwillbecriticalin
    controllingadverseimpactsoffuturevariability.
    4.Althoughsomeoftheclimatetrendsatregional
    levelsareuncertain,thereissufcientknowledge
    toinformurgentandprudentchangesinpolicy
    andplanninginmostregions.
    5.Thereareimportantgapsinourknowledgethat
    alreadyorsoonwillimpedeefectiveaction.
    Targetedresearchisurgentlyneededtollgapsin
    Actionsforcombatingthemajorwater-relateddisease
    burdenscanbepursuedatavarietyofdiferentlevels:
    Theformulationofnationalpoliciesandthecreationof
    institutionalframeworks:efortsintheseareascanresult
    inanenablingenvironmentforuniversalandefcient
    provisionofsafedrinkingwaterandsanitationservices.
    Networking:bringingtogetherprofessionalstoshare
    informationandexperiencescanplayakeyrolein
    combatingthewater-relateddiseaseburden.Examples
    ofsuchnetworksincludeWHO-hostedinternational
    networks(e.g.theDrinking-waterRegulatorsNetwork
    andtheSmallCommunityWaterSuppliesManagement
    Network),theWHO/UNICEFNetworkonHousehold
    WaterTreatmentandSafeStorage,andtheWHO/IWA
    NetworkonOperationandMaintenance.
    Normativecapacities:efortstostrengthennorma-
    tivecapacitiescanbolsterdiseaseprevention,forex-
    ample,thefourtheditionoftheWHO Drinking Water
    Quality Guidelines(WHO,2011b)andsubsequent
    watersafetyplanningapproachforimplementation
    (WHO/IWA,2009).
    Monitoringandsurveillance:globalmonitoringby
    theWHO/UNICEFJointMonitoringProgrammeon
    WaterSupplyandSanitation(JMP)andbytheUN-
    Water/WHOGlobalAnalysisandAssessmentof
    SanitationandDrinking-water(GLAAS)guidespoli-
    cies,resourceallocationandactionstoachievethe
    MDGtarget,andprovidesaplatformforthedevel-
    opmentofindicatorsandtargetsforpost-2015mon-
    itoring,linkedtocriteriaforthehumanrighttowater
    andsanitation(WHO/UNICEF,2011).
    Healthimpactassessments(HIAs)canbeusedtoob-
    jectivelyevaluatethepotentialhealthefectsofawa-
    terpolicyorprojectbeforeitisimplementedorcon-
    structed,andproviderecommendationstoincrease
    positivehealthoutcomesandminimizeadversehealth
    outcomesaspartofapublichealthmanagementplan.
    TheHIAframeworkisusedtocomprehensivelyaddress
    publichealthissuesinthedecision-makingprocessfor
    developmentplanningthatfalloutsideoftraditional
    publichealtharenas:transportation,agriculture,land
    use,energyandinfrastructure.Takingpublichealth
    consequencesintoconsiderationupstreamaspart
    oftheearlyplanningprocesscreatesawindowofop-
    portunityfordesignandmanagementinterventions
    thatcannotbedeployedoncetheprojectisoperation-
    al.Italsofostersanintersectoralapproachtoreduced
    pathogentransmissionandpreventsthesubsequent
    transferofhiddencoststothehealthsector.
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER4
    109
    Waterisusedforawiderangeofsocio-economicactivi-
    tiesincludingpublichealth,agriculture,energyandin-
    dustry.Unsustainableandshort-termdecisionstakenin
    thecontextoftheseactivitieshaveanimpactonwater
    resources,withdiferentsocialandeconomicconse-
    quencesformenandwomeninthecommunity.Over
    thelongerterm,scarcitycreatedatthelocallevelasa
    resultofthiscrisisislikelytoincreaseinequitywithinlo-
    calcommunitieswithregardtoaccessandcontrolover
    localwaterresources,afectingpoorwomenthemost.
    Decisionsrelatedtowatersharing,waterallocation
    andwaterdistributionbetweendiferentusesand
    acrossregionsaremostoftenmadeathigherlevels
    whereeconomicandpoliticalconsiderationsgener-
    allyplayamoreimportantrolethansocialconcerns.
    Thesedecisionsimpactthewaterresourceslocally
    availabletocommunities,whoarelikelytoloseac-
    cesstotheveryresourcesthatsustaintheirlivelihoods
    andfulltheirneeds.Ruralwomenoftenrelyupon
    commonwaterresourcessuchassmallwaterbodies,
    pondsandstreamstomeettheirwaterneeds,butin
    manyregionsthesesourceshavebeenerodedorhave
    disappearedduetochangesinlanduse,orhavebeen
    appropriatedbythestateorindustryfordevelopment
    needsortosupplywatertourbanareas.
    technologyandbasicinformation,todevelopsim-
    pletools,andtoprovideregionalinformationon
    climatechange.(WHO/DFID,2009,p.3)
    Therelationshipbetweenthedriversofwater-related
    diseasesandhumanhealthiscomplex.Thus,protec-
    tionofhumanhealthrequirescollaborationamong
    multiplesectors.Policiesandprojectsinnon-wateror
    non-healthsectorsshouldreectthelinksbetween
    watermanagementandhealthindecision-making
    processesinordertoavoidunintendedadversepub-
    lichealthconsequences,aswellastoincreaseoverall
    benets.Todosorequirestheengagementofhealth
    professionalsandinstitutions.
    Inthecaseofdrinkingwaterqualitymanagement,
    thereisincreasingrecognitionthataddressingthe
    complexrootcausesofwatercontaminationisamore
    efectiveandsustainableapproachthenreactingto
    problemsaftertheyoccur.Thefourtheditionofthe
    Guidelines for Drinking Water Quality(WHO,2011b)
    emphasizestheneedforcollaborationbetweenall
    stakeholders,includinglandusersorhouseholders
    whomaydischargeindustrial,agriculturalordomes-
    ticwasteintoacatchmentarea;policy-makersfrom
    variousministriesoverseeingtheimplementationand
    enforcementofenvironmentalregulations;practi-
    tionersdeliveringwater;andconsumersatthetap.
    Thispreventiveandcollaborativewater-safetyplan-
    ningapproachhasdemonstratedbenets,including
    cost-savingsandsustainableimprovementsinwater
    quality.Experiencealsoshows,mostrecentlyinSouth
    andEastAsia,thatwhileprogressisbeingmade,im-
    plementingsuchanoshort-cutapproachremainsa
    challenge.Eachriskmanagementsolutionneedsto
    betailor-madetothewatersupplyinquestion,and
    demandsthatkeystakeholdersbecomeengagedand
    committedtoacommongoal.
    4.2Waterandgender
    Amongthemanywater-relatedchallengesworldwide,
    thecrisisofscarcity,deterioratingwaterquality,the
    linkagesbetweenwaterandfoodsecurity,andthe
    needforimprovedgovernancearethemostsigni-
    cantinthecontextofgenderdiferencesinaccessto
    andcontroloverwaterresources.Thesechallengesare
    expectedtobecomemoreintenseinthefuture,dueto
    thegrowinguncertaintyandriskassociatedwiththe
    availabilityandqualityoffreshwaterresources,arising
    fromincreasingdemandforvarioususes,climatevari-
    abilityandnaturaldisasters.
    WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    In the case of
    drinking water quality
    management, there is
    increasing recognition
    that addressing the
    complex root causes
    of water contamination
    is a more efective and
    sustainable approach
    then reacting to
    problems after they
    occur.
    110
    Althoughitistruethatmanysociallyconstructedbar-
    riersneedtobeovercomeinordertofacilitatethein-
    volvementofbothmenandwomenindecision-making
    andmanagementofwaterresources,itisalsotruethat
    traditionalgenderroleshaveoftenbeenchallengedsuc-
    cessfullybydevelopingwomenscapacitiestomanage
    waterinterventions,andprovidingthemwithopportuni-
    tiestoplayleadershiprolesandimprovetheireconomic
    conditions.However,thesesuccessesareoftenlimited
    tothelocalcontext,asthelargerissues,suchasprovid-
    ingwaterrightstowomen,aregovernedbyexternal
    factors,whicharenotonlyoutsidethepurviewofthese
    interventions,butinvolvetraditional,culturalandpoliti-
    calrealitiesthataredifculttochangeintheshortterm,
    andrequirelong-termcommitmentfrompolicy-makers,
    governments,politiciansandadvocacygroups.
    Overmanydecades,theUnitedNationshasmade
    signicantprogressinadvancinggenderequal-
    ity,includingthroughlandmarkagreementssuchas
    theBeijingDeclarationandPlatformforAction,and
    theConventionontheEliminationofAllFormsof
    DiscriminationagainstWomen(CEDAW),andthe
    settingupofUNWomentoaccelerateprogressin
    achievinggenderequalityandwomensempow-
    erment.WaterandGenderislistedasoneofUN-
    WatersThematicPriorityAreasinits20102011Work
    Programme,whilethepromotionofgenderequalityis
    oneofUNESCOstwoglobalprioritiesfor20082013.
    4.3Ecosystemhealth
    Trends in ecosystems and the benets they deliver in-
    dicate the presence of a serious ecological imbalance.
    This instability and degradation in ecosystems increases
    uncertainty and amplies risk. Tipping points in ecosys-
    tems, beyond which damage accelerates and becomes
    irreversible, are being rapidly approached, and involve
    high risk and potentially major socio-economic impacts.
    There is some good news: the current situation has re-
    sulted in increasing attention to ecosystems, some suc-
    cessful responses, and a narrowing divide between water,
    ecosystems, environment, biodiversity and human devel-
    opment interests. Ecosystems ofer solutions to achiev-
    ing water-related objectives and reducing uncertainty
    and risk; the task is to mainstream and upscale them.
    Ecosystemsdelivermultiplebenets(orservices)that
    areessentialforsustainabledevelopment.Manyofthese
    keyservicesarederiveddirectlyfromwater,andallare
    underpinnedbyit.Trendsinecosystemhealth,therefore,
    Waterhasdiferentvaluesfordiferentusesandpur-
    poses,andthesamesourceofwatercanbeusedfor
    socialaswellaseconomicpurposes.Socialandenvi-
    ronmentalvaluationismoreprevalentatthelocallevel,
    wherewatersourcesmaybedesignatedfordiferent
    usessuchasdrinking,commonusessuchasbath-
    ingandwashingdependingonthequalityofwater,
    orregardedassacredforreligiouspurposes.Water
    thathasbeenvaluedasaneconomicgood,suchasir-
    rigationwatersuppliedthroughanirrigationscheme,
    alsohasasocialvalueforlocalcommunities,espe-
    ciallyforwomen,whomayusethesameirrigation
    watersourceforbothdomesticandfarmingpurposes.
    Opportunitiesforimprovingaccesstowaterforwom-
    enandimprovingtheirwatersecuritycanbefoundby
    analysingwatervaluesthroughagenderlens.
    Waterpoliciesbasedonbroad,generalizedperspec-
    tivesaremorelikelytoomitlocalknowledge,and
    socialandgenderdimensionsandtheirimplications.
    Recognizingthevariouspurposesforwhichtheselocal
    waterresourcesareusedbydiferentgroupsofmen
    andwomeninthecommunitywouldhelptosuccess-
    fullyintegrategenderconsiderations,notonlyinwater
    resourcemanagement,butalsoinsectorssuchasur-
    banwatersupply,agriculture,industryandenergythat
    dependuponwaterresources,andwhichoftenconict
    overwaterallocationsandtheirdemandforfreshwa-
    terresources.Byworkingtogetherinpartnershipwith
    thesesectors,decision-makersingovernmentbodies,
    privatesectorandcivilsocietycanunderstandandad-
    dressthepotentialsynergiesandtrade-ofsthatoc-
    curwhenprovidingaccesstodiferentgroupsofmen
    andwomeninlocalcommunities.Thisapproachwould
    helptoanticipaterisksanduncertaintiesandplanfor
    safeguardstoprotectthemostvulnerablegroupsin
    thecommunity.
    Thereisenoughevidencetoshowthatintegratinga
    gender-sensitiveapproachtodevelopmentcanhave
    apositiveimpactontheefectivenessandsustain-
    abilityofwaterinterventionsandontheconservation
    ofwaterresources.Involvingbothmenandwomenin
    thedesignandimplementationofinterventionsleads
    toefectivenewsolutionstowaterproblems;helps
    governmentstoavoidpoorinvestmentsandexpensive
    mistakes;makesprojectsmoresustainable;ensures
    thatinfrastructuredevelopmentyieldsthemaximum
    socialandeconomicreturns;andfurthersdevelopment
    goals,suchasreducinghunger,childmortalityandim-
    provinggenderequality(Oxfam,2005,2007).
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER4
    111
    Consideringthetrendsinthesedrivers,therecent
    overallpictureofecosystemhealthisunsurprisingly
    oneofescalatingdegradation.Theincreasingnegative
    trendpresentedinWWDR2andWWDR3,andcom-
    prehensivelyoutlinedbytheMillenniumEcosystem
    Assessment(MA,2005a),ismaintainedbasedon
    severalrecentdetailedassessments;theseinclude
    Global Environment Outlook 4 (UNEP,2007),Global
    Biodiversity Outlook 3(CBD,2010a),andregionalas-
    sessmentssuchasthoseundertakenforAfrica(UNEP,
    2008).Areviewofprogresstowardsthe2010bio-
    diversitytargetforinlandwatersconcludedthatthe
    2010targetandsubtargetsforinlandwatersbiodiver-
    sityhavenotbeenachieved;thedriversofbiodiversity
    lossremainunchangedandareallescalating;exces-
    sivenutrientloadinghasemergedasanimportantdi-
    rectdriverofecosystemchangeininland(andcoastal)
    waters(Figure4.1),andgroundwaterpollutionremains
    amajorconcern;thesurfacewaterandgroundwa-
    terportionsofthewatercyclehavebeensubjected
    tomassivechangesbydirecthumanuseonlocal,
    indicatetrendsinthedeliveryoftheseoverallbenets
    andprovideakeyindicatorofwhetherhumansocietyis
    inoroutofbalancewithwater.Andthetrendsinecosys-
    tems,includingthelifetheysupport,areindicatingclearly
    andunambiguouslythatthingsareoutofbalance.
    WWDR2(WWAP,2006)andWWDR3(WWAP,2009)
    reviewedtheprincipalpressuresandimpactsonfresh-
    waterecosystems.Thekeydirectwater-relateddrivers
    involvedareecosystemconversion(e.g.drainageand
    conversionofwetlands);fragmentation(e.g.damsand
    reservoirs);anddegradation(principally,wateravail-
    ability/owandwaterquality/pollution).Theindirect
    driversresponsibleforthesearisefromthesocial(in-
    cludingdemographic)andeconomicchangesassoci-
    atedwithdevelopment,andthefactthatmosthu-
    manneedsandactivitiesdirectlyorindirectlyimpact
    limitedwaterresources.Atglobalandregionalscales,
    thenatureofthesedriversremainslargelyunchanged.
    Althoughtherearesomeshiftsintheirrelativeweight,
    mostdriversshowincreasingnegativetrendsoverall.
    WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    FIGURE 4.1
    Nutrientloadingininlandandcoastalwaters
    Note: The number of observed dead zones, coastal sea areas where water oxygen levels have dropped too low to support most marine life, has
    roughly doubled each decade since the 1960s. Many are concentrated near the estuaries of major rivers, and result from the buildup of nutrients,
    largely carried from inland agricultural areas where fertilizers are washed into watercourses. The nutrients promote the growth of algae that die
    and decompose on the seabed, depleting the water of oxygen and threatening sheries, livelihoods and tourism.
    Source: CBD (2010a, g. 15, p. 60).
    1990 2000 2010
    200
    1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
    Number of dead zones
    0
    300
    500
    100
    400
    Dead zone location
    112
    wateravailabilitycharacterizethelocationsofthe
    mostimpactedecosystems.
    Thereisoftenanassumptionthatuseablewaterin
    naturecanbereadilyaccessedandmovedaroundat
    will.Forexample,manygovernmentshaveambitious
    planstomovemassivevolumesofwaterfromwater-
    richtowater-poorriverbasins(Molden,2009,p.116).
    Theconsequencesoftheseinter-basinwatertrans-
    fersonecosystemhealthremainunclear,buttheyare
    likelytobeimmense.Watermanagementalsooften
    focusesonsurfacewaterandgroundwatertothe
    detrimentofecosystemsandtheirroleinthewater
    cycle.Thereneedstobebroaderrecognitionofthe
    regionalandcontinentalscales;andecologicalsustain-
    abilityofwateravailableforabstractionisgivingalarm
    signs(Box4.4).Althoughprogresshasbeenmadein
    policyandpracticalresponses(e.g.designationofpro-
    tectedareas),therateofincreaseisslowing,andmost
    otherindicatorsshowcontinuingoroftenaccelerat-
    ingdeclines(Butchartetal.,2010).Whileprotected
    wetlandareasareincreasing,mostwetlandsitesare
    degrading(CBD,2010b).
    Somepositivetrendsindevelopedregionsforexam-
    ple,improvementsinmanagingnutrientloads(Figure
    4.2),wetlandsrestoration,oraslowingorreversalof
    biodiversitylossareofsetbyaccelerateddegrada-
    tionindevelopingcountries.Anunderlyingproblem
    isthatrichnationsaretendingtomaintainorincrease
    theirconsumptionofnaturalresources(WWF,2010),
    butareexportingtheirfootprintstoproducer,andtyp-
    ically,poorer,nations.Forexample,62%oftheUnited
    Kingdomswaterfootprintisvirtualwaterembedded
    inagriculturalcommoditiesandproductsimported
    fromothercountries38%originatesfromdomes-
    ticwaterresources(ChapagainandOrr,2008).In
    addition,muchoftheprogressinpollutioncontrolin
    richcountriesisattributabletotheshiftofindustrial
    productionelsewhere,forexample,toChina.Thisis
    particularlythecaseforwater-relatedimpacts,includ-
    ingthroughtradeinvirtualwater.Notably,thisalso
    transfersuncertaintyandrisktodevelopingnations
    lesspreparedtodealwiththeseimpacts.Untilricher
    consumersrecognizeandtakeresponsibilityfortheir
    globalfootprint,societyshallcontinuetoaddressthe
    symptomsoftheproblemasadistractionfromtack-
    lingitsrootcause.
    Thereisampleevidencethathumansareover-con-
    sumingnaturalresourcesoverallatanunsustainable
    rate.Variousestimatesindicatethat,basedonbusi-
    nessasusual,approximately3.5planetEarthswould
    beneededtosustainaglobalpopulationachieving
    thecurrentlifestyleoftheaverageEuropeanorNorth
    American.Importantly,thesustainabilityofwaterre-
    sourcesisakeysubsetofthisdilemma.Recentstud-
    iessuggestthattheplanetarylimitsofsustainable
    watermayhavealreadybeenreachedorexceeded
    (Box4.4).Hotspotsforecosystemservicedegrada-
    tionhavenotbeensystematicallymapped,assuch,
    buttheycorrelatecloselywithareasofwaterstress
    (seeSection4.6)andhighpollutionloads(Figure
    4.1).Rapiddevelopment,highpopulationdensityand
    growth,industrialization,andtosomeextentlimited
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER4
    FIGURE 4.2
    NitrogenbalanceinEurope
    Note: The average nitrogen balance per ha of agricultural land (the
    amount of nitrogen added to land as fertilizers, compared with
    the amount used up by crops and pasture) for selected European
    countries. The reduction over time in some countries implies
    improved efciency in the use of fertilizers, and therefore a reduced
    risk of damage to biodiversity through nutrient runof.
    Source: CBD (2010a, g. 16, p. 61).
    Netherlands
    Kg per ha
    1990 1995 2000 2005
    0
    100
    200
    300
    400
    Belgium
    Denmark
    OECD
    Czech Republic
    Sweden
    Spain
    113
    importanceofconservingandrestoringsoilmoisture,
    underpinnedbysoilecosystemhealth,andtherela-
    tionshipbetweengroundvegetationcoverandlocal
    andregionalhumidity.Policy-makersandmanagers
    needtounderstandthatecosystemsdonotconsume
    watertheysupplyandrecycleitandwatertaken
    fromecosystemsunsustainablyreducestheirability
    todeliverthebenetsthatsocietyneeds.
    TEEB(2009)statesthatecosystemlossanddegrada-
    tiondoesnotalwaysresultinanimmediatelydetect-
    ableorproportionalresponseintermsoflostecosys-
    temservices.Instead,atippingpointmaybereached,
    atwhichrapidandcatastrophiccollapseoccursfol-
    lowingaperiodofapparentstability(e.g.Lentonetal.,
    2008).Thispotentiallyreversessustainabilityandpro-
    gresstowardshumanwelfare.Thepoorusuallyface
    WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    BOX 4.4
    Havethegloballimitsofwatersustainability
    alreadybeenreached?
    BOX 4.5
    Ecosystemtippingpoints:Theoryorreality?
    Basedonanassessmentofwhattheplanetsecosystem
    cansustainablysupply,Rockstrmetal.(2009a)sug-
    gestthatsafeandsustainableconsumptionofbluewater
    sources(evaporationandtranspirationfromrivers,lakes,
    groundwaterreservoirsandirrigation)shouldnotexceed
    4,000km
    3
    peryear.Atpresent,bluewaterconsumption
    isestimatedat2,600km
    3
    peryear.ButMolden(2009)
    notesthat,basedonawiderreviewofstudiesonthe
    globalsupplyanddemandofwater,the4,000km
    3
    limit
    maybetoohigh.Thesestudiessuggestthatsocietyis
    closetoapproachingthegloballimitofsustainableavail-
    abilityofwater.
    Butdistributionandconsumptionofwaterareuneven.
    Thelimitstosustainablewaterabstractionarealready
    surpassedinmanyregions.Forexample,thereislittle
    ornoadditionalstreamoworgroundwaterforfurther
    developmentintheMurrayDarlingRiverinAustralia,
    theYellowRiverinChina,theIndusinPakistanandIndia,
    theAmuandSyrDaryainCentralAsia,theNileRiver,
    theColoradoRiverintheUnitedStatesofAmericaand
    Mexico,andinmostoftheMiddleEast.Manyoftheseare
    importantfood-producingareas.Thestressisreected
    inecosystemhealth,whereallofthesebasinssuferfrom
    excessivepollution,riverdesiccation,competitionforsup-
    pliesandotherecosystemdegradation(Molden,2009).
    Globally,astrikinglysmallfractionoftheworldsrivers
    remainunafectedbyhumans,withthemajorityofriver
    basinsnowexhibitingsimilarsignsofstress(Vrsmarty
    etal.,2010).
    Deforestationcanbeseenasamechanismthatleadstode-
    creasingregionalrainfallthroughthelossofcloud-forming
    evapotranspirationfromtheforest.Localclimatethenbe-
    comesdrier,therebyacceleratingecosystemchange.Inthe
    Amazon,forexample,anapparentlymoderatedeforestation
    of20%couldmeanthatatippingpointisreached,beyond
    whichforestecosystemswouldcollapseacrosstheentireba-
    sin(WorldBank,2010a).Thiswouldhavedevastatingimpacts
    onwatersecurityandotherecosystemservicesthatwould
    reachfarbeyondtheAmazonbasinitself,includingimpactson
    regionalagricultureandglobalcarbonstorage.
    1
    Unfortunately,
    Amazondeforestationisalreadyatapproximately18%.
    IntacttropicalforestsofSouthAmericashiftedfrombuf-
    eringtheincreaseinatmosphericcarbondioxidetoaccel-
    eratingitduringrecentdroughtevents;thiswasnotcom-
    pensatedbyrecoveryinnon-droughtyears.Ifdrought
    eventscontinue,whetherthroughclimatechange,defor-
    estationordirectwateruse,theeraofintactAmazonfor-
    estsbuferingtheincreaseinatmosphericcarbondioxide
    mayhavepassed(Lewisetal.,2011).
    Nkemetal.(2009)provideevidencethatthesetipping
    pointsarebeingreachedorsurpassedinreality,asevi-
    dencedthroughsomenationalreportstotheUNFCCC,
    particularlyforCentralAmerica.Thesesuggestthatthe
    impactsofdeforestationarealreadyafectingwatersup-
    ply,totheextentofundermining,forexample,sustainable
    hydropower.Thecountriessurveyedalsoveryclearlysee
    theclimatechange-water-forestnexusasoneofmanaging
    uncertaintyandrisk.
    Tippingpointstriggeredbymultiplestressorsgobeyond
    justwaterandcarbon.Rockstrometal.(2009b)iden-
    tifynineplanetaryboundariesbeyondwhichecosystems
    shouldnotpass:climatechange(greenhousegaslevels);
    oceanacidication;stratosphericozone;nitrogenandphos-
    phorusloads(cycling);globalfreshwateruse;land-system
    change;therateoflossofbiodiversity,forwhichquantied
    limitsareidentied;andchemicalpollutionandatmos-
    phericaerosolloading(whichawaitmetrics).Theyestimate
    thathumanityhasalreadytransgressedthreeplanetary
    boundaries:climatechange,rateofbiodiversitylossand
    theglobalnitrogencycle(andnoteearlierthatfreshwater
    useisnearormayhavealsoexceededthelimits).Theso-
    cialimpactsoftransgressingboundarieswillbeafunction
    ofthesocialecologicalresilienceoftheafectedsocieties.
    Theproposedconceptofplanetaryboundarieslaysthe
    groundworkforshiftingourapproachtogovernanceand
    management,awayfromtheessentiallysectoralanalyses
    oflimitstogrowthaimedatminimizingnegativeexternali-
    ties,towardtheestimation[andmanagement]ofthesafe
    spaceforhumandevelopment(Rockstrmetal.,2009b).
    114
    theearliestandmostsevereimpactsofsuchchanges,
    butultimatelyallsocietiesandcommunitieswouldsuf-
    ferasaresult(CBD,2010a)(Box4.5).
    Oneusefuldevelopmentisgrowingattentiontothe
    needtointegrateavailableknowledgeanddatasets
    tobetterexplainandilluminatetheinterdependency
    ofwater,ecosystemsandhumans.Theaforemen-
    tionedreviewsoftrendsinenvironment,ecosystems
    andbiodiversitycontinueashiftinthisdirection,but
    largelythroughinterpretationoftrendsinnumer-
    oussubjectareasindependently.Themostsignicant
    advancesarenowlikelytoemergefromapproaches
    thatbetterintegratediferentdatasetsandknowl-
    edgesources.Forexample,Vrsmartyetal.(2010)
    useddatadepicting23stressors(drivers),grouped
    intofourmajorthemesrepresentingenvironmental
    impacts(catchmentdisturbance,pollution,waterre-
    sourcedevelopmentandbioticfactors),toassessa
    cumulativethreatframework.Theresultsshowthat
    nearly80%oftheworldspopulationisexposedto
    highlevelsofthreattowatersecurity,basedong-
    uresfortheyear2000,implyingamuchgreaterlevel
    ofriskthanpreviousassessments.
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER4
    BOX 4.6
    TrendsinwetlandsinChina:Reversinglossesto
    restorebenets
    Thereisevidenceofwholesaleshiftsintherightdirection.
    Forexample,Chinasremarkableeconomicgrowthhasun-
    surprisinglyresultedinseriousenvironmentalproblems,in
    particularrapidwetlanddegradationandloss,seriouswa-
    tershortagesinthenorth,andwastewaterpollutionacross
    thecountry.Onereportstatesthatover30%ofnatural
    wetlandareamayhavebeenlostinonly10yearsfrom
    1990to2000(Cyranoski,2009).Thisisoneofthehighest
    ratesofnaturalhabitatlossrecorded,outstrippingtrends
    inglobalforestloss,butisnotablytypicaloftheimpacts
    ofdevelopment.Wheredataexisttheyshowevenmore
    extensivewetlandslossinOECDcountries;forexample,
    over90%forNewZealand(Ausseiletal.,2008).However,
    wetlandpolicieshavechangedinChina,includingshifts
    towardsmajorrehabilitationeforts.Arecentreviewsug-
    geststhatintheveyearspost2000,thewetlandareain
    Chinahasstabilized,possiblyevenincreasingslightly(Xuet
    al.,2009).Thedrivingforceforthisshiftinpolicyhasbeen
    recognitionofthevalueofwater-relatedwetlandecosys-
    temservicesandtheneedtorestoretheseascost-efective
    solutionstowatermanagementproblems.
    FIGURE 4.3
    Since1997,theproportionofriverbasinsinMalaysiaclassiedascleanhasbeenincreasing
    Source: CBD (2010a, g. 11, p. 43).
    0
    20
    40
    60
    80
    100
    10
    30
    50
    70
    90
    Slightly polluted Clean Polluted
    1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
    P
    e
    r
    c
    e
    n
    t
    a
    g
    e
    115
    abnormalorrisingsealevels,andepidemicsandpest
    outbreaksassociatedwithtoolittleortoomuchwater.
    Water-relatedhazardsaccountfor90%ofallnatural
    hazards,andtheirfrequencyandintensityisgenerally
    rising.Some373naturaldisasterskilledover296,800
    peoplein2010,afectingnearly208millionothersand
    costingnearlyUS$110billion(UN,2011).
    Onewater-relatedhazardthatseldommakesitintothe
    impactsstatisticsisdrought.AccordingtotheUnited
    NationsGlobal Assessment Report,since1900more
    than11millionpeoplehavediedasaconsequenceof
    droughtandmorethan2billionhavebeenafectedby
    drought,morethananyotherphysicalhazard(UNISDR,
    2011).However,theseguresareprobablylowerthan
    therealtotalasfewcountriessystematicallyreportand
    recorddroughtlossesandimpacts.Accordingtosame
    report,countriesthatdo,suchastheUnitedStatesof
    America(USA),onlyreportinsuredlosses.
    Disasterscausedbywater-relatedhazardshavetaken
    atollnotjustonindividuallivesandlivelihoods,but
    alsoonnationaldevelopment.Climatevariability,
    whichshowsastrongcorrelationtotheoccurrenceof
    Assessmentsofglobalorregionaltrendsdisguisegood
    progressmadeatlocalandnationalscales.Whilewater
    qualityoverallcontinuestodeteriorate,therearesigns
    ofseveralpollutantscomingundercontrolthroughef-
    fectivemanagementmeasures(Figure4.3),although
    non-pointsourcepollution,particularlyfromagriculture,
    remainschallenginginalmostallareas.Onepositive
    trendistheemergenceofmorewidespreadattentionto,
    andpracticalexamplesof,ecosystem-basedapproaches
    toachievingwatermanagementobjectives.Theseap-
    proacheshaveyettobeupscaledandmainstreamedto
    attainthenecessaryimpactonachievingglobalbene-
    ts,buttherearepromisingsigns(Box4.6).
    4.4Water-relatedhazardrisk
    Water-relatedhazardsformasubsetofnaturalhaz-
    ards;themostsignicantonesincludeoods,mud-
    slides,stormsandrelatedoceanstormsurge,heat
    waves,coldspells,droughtsandwaterbornediseases.
    Mostdisastersarecausedbyacombinationofhazards,
    somerelatedtowaterandotherofgeologicaland
    biologicalorigin.Sucheventsincludethosetriggered
    byearthquakes,suchastsunamis,landslidesthatdam
    rivers,breakageofleveesanddams,aswellasgla-
    cierlakeoutbursts,coastaloodingassociatedwith
    WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    FIGURE 4.4
    ClimatevariabilityhasanimpactonGDP
    Note: This graph indicates that countries with a higher climate variability index (CVI) (dark brown dots) generally have lower GDP per capita
    (reected in the size of the dots). The large dark brown dots here indicate the oil-producing states Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates
    Source: Brown and Lall (2006, p. 310).
    0
    2.5
    2
    1.5
    1
    0.5
    0
    Mean Annual Precipitation (cm)
    C
    o
    e
    f
    c
    i
    e
    n
    t

    o
    f

    V
    a
    r
    i
    a
    t
    i
    o
    n

    o
    f

    M
    o
    n
    t
    h
    l
    y

    R
    a
    i
    n
    f
    a
    l
    l

    (
    C
    V
    M
    )
    50 100 150 200 250
    300
    GDP per capita (Low CVI)
    GDP per capita (High CVI)
    116
    shelters,developingaccurateweatherforecasts,issu-
    ingwarningsthatpeopleheeded,andarrangingfor
    theirevacuation.Allthiscostlessthanbuildinglarge-
    scaleembankmentsthatwouldhavebeenlessefec-
    tive(WorldBank,2010b).
    Theincreasingeconomiccostandtollofdisasters
    shouldbeasignicantincentiveforgovernmentsand
    humanitarianorganizationstofocusmoreattention
    onpreparedness,preventionandaddressingtheroot
    causesofvulnerability.Infact,increaseddonorinterest
    indisasterpreventionandriskreductionhasnotbeen
    matchedbysubstantiveamountsofnewfundingor
    newprojects(Martinetal.,2006).
    4.4.1Trendsinwater-relatedhazardimpactsandrisk
    Water-relateddisastersposebothdirectimpacts
    (e.g.damagetobuildings,cropsandinfrastructure,
    andlossoflifeandproperty)andindirectimpacts
    (e.g.lossesinproductivityandlivelihoods,increased
    investmentrisk,indebtednessandhumanhealthim-
    pacts).Theimpactsofhurricanes,typhoonsandcy-
    clonesdependonwindspeed(category15),where
    astormstrikes,howmuchoodingitcauses,andthe
    populationdensityandqualityofbuildingsandin-
    frastructureintheafectedarea.Suchstormscause
    impactsthroughhighwinds,tornadoes,stormsurges
    (around80160kmwideacrossthecoastline),storm
    water-relatedhazards,hasalwaysexistedandimpact-
    eddevelopment;infact,countrieswithhigherclimate
    variabilityhavegenerallybeenshowntohavelower
    GDPpercapita(BrownandLall,2006)(Figure4.4).
    Between1990and2000,naturaldisastersinseveral
    developingcountrieshadcauseddamagerepresenting
    between2%and15%oftheirannualGDP(WorldBank,
    2004;WWAP,2009).
    Duetoclimatechange,itisexpectedthatthefre-
    quencyofcertainnaturalhazardswillincrease(IPCC,
    2007).Whilethereiscurrentlynoevidencethatcli-
    matechangeisdirectlyresponsibleforincreased
    lossesassociatedwithwater-relatedhazards(Bouwer,
    2011),giventheincreasingexposureandextremes,
    manycountriesarelookingtoreducetheirrisktodis-
    astersaspartofclimatechangeadaptation(UNISDR,
    2011).
    AWorldBankstudyreleasedin2010examinedthe
    costsandbenetsofspecicpreventionmeasures.
    Thereportexaminesgovernmentexpendituresonpre-
    ventionandndsthatittobegenerallylowerthanre-
    liefspending,whichrisesafteradisasterandremains
    highforseveralsubsequentyears.Butefectivepre-
    ventiondependsnotjustontheamount,butonwhat
    fundsarespenton.Forexample,Bangladeshreduced
    deathsfromcyclonesbyspendingmodestsumson
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER4
    FIGURE 4.5
    Peopleexposedtooods
    Source: UNISDR (2009, g. 2.14, p. 36).
    China
    VietNam
    Cambodia
    Indonesia
    Thailand
    Philippines
    Pakistan
    Myanmar
    Nepal
    Brazil
    RussianFederation
    Nigeria
    Sudan
    Egypt
    RepublicofKorea
    Colombia
    UnitedStatesofAmeria
    Mexico
    India
    Bangladesh
    20000000 16000000 12000000 8000000 4000000 2 4 6 8 10 12
    Absolute:peopleexposedperyear Relative:peopleexposedperyear,percentage
    VietNam
    Bhutan
    India
    Thailand
    Nepal
    LaoPeoplesDemocraticRepublic
    Myanmar
    Philippines
    Benin
    Haiti
    Guyana
    Belize
    DominicanRepublic
    Mozambique
    SriLanka
    NewZealand
    Sudan
    Indonesia
    Cambodia
    Bangladesh
    117
    Anobservationofoodanddroughtriskpatterns
    andtrendsatthegloballevelallowsavisualizationof
    themajorconcentrationsofriskandanidentication
    ofthegeographicdistributionofdisasterriskacross
    countries,trendsovertimeandthemajordriversof
    thesepatternsandtrends(UNISDR,2011).
    Between1970and2010theworldspopulationin-
    creasedby87%(from3.7billionto6.9billion)
    (UNISDR,2011).Duringthesameperiod,theannual
    averagepopulationexposedtooodincreasedby112%
    (from33.3to70.4millionperyear)(UNISDR,2011)
    (Figure4.5).
    Countriesinallregionshavestrengthenedtheirca-
    pacitiestoreducemortalityrisksassociatedwithma-
    jorweather-relatedhazardssuchastropicalcyclones
    andoods(UNISDR,2011,p.18).Figure4.6showsan
    updatedglobaldistributionofmortalityriskforthree
    weather-relatedhazards(tropicalcyclones,oodsand
    landslidesprovokedbyrains).Theareasofhighestrisk
    visibleinthesemapscorrespondtoareaswherecon-
    centrationsofvulnerablepeopleareexposedtosevere
    andfrequentmajorhazards.
    Incontrast,countrieshavehadafarmoredifculttime
    successfullyaddressingotherrisks.Economiclossrisk
    tides(tidallyenhancedstormsurges),andood-
    ingassociatedwithtorrentialrain.Alongimmediate
    coastlines,stormsurgesarethegreatestthreatto
    lifeandproperty.Thesetypesofstormscancause
    tremendousdamageandlossoflifeinamatterof
    seconds.
    Floodsareoneofthemostfrequentnaturalhazards,
    andtheyoccurinalmosteverycountry.Theseverity
    ofashoods,riveroodsandurbanoodsdepends
    onrainfallintensity,spatialdistributionofrainfall,to-
    pographyandsurfaceconditions.Climatechangeis
    expectedtoincreasetheseverityandfrequencyof
    ooding(IPCC,2007).Droughtafectsmorepeople
    globallythananyothernaturalhazard(UNISDR,2011).
    Itdoesnotdestroyinfrastructureordirectlyleadto
    humanmortality,althoughfaminesmaybetriggered
    bydrought(ultimately,however,mortalityisduetoa
    complexsetofinteractionssurroundingfoodsecurity).
    The2011famineintheHornofAfrica,whichthreat-
    enedthelivelihoodofmorethan13.3millionpeople
    (UNOCHA,2011),highlightsthecomplexinteraction
    between(andpotentialcatastrophicconsequencesof)
    theclimaticphenomenonresultinginlowrainfall,the
    vulnerablepastoralistpopulationwithlimitedcapacity
    tocope,andapoliticalcontextofconict.
    WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    FIGURE 4.6
    Hazardmortalityrisk(oods,tropicalcyclonesandprecipitation-triggeredlandslides)
    Source: Developed by the GAR team at UNISDR.
    Risk
    High
    Low
    118
    4.4.2Behindthetrends:Driversofchange
    Understandingtheunderlyingfactorsofriskforwater-
    relatedhazardsisthecornerstoneofanyefortto
    reduceriskandfutureimpacts.Thefactorsthathave
    ledtoincreasedwater-relateddisastersincludenatu-
    ralpressuressuchasclimatevariability;management
    pressuressuchaslackofappropriateorganizational
    systemsandinappropriatelandandwatermanage-
    ment;andsocialpressuressuchaspopulationgrowth,
    assetsandsettlementsinhigh-riskareas(Adikariand
    Yoshitani,2009).
    Theincreaseinnaturaldisasterlossesoverthepast
    fewdecadesislargelyattributabletotheincreasein
    valueofexposedassets,whileanthropogenicclimate
    changehasnothadadiscernableimpactonlosses
    (Bouwer,2011).By2050,risingpopulationsinood-
    pronelands,climatechange,deforestation,lossof
    wetlandsandrisingsealevelsareexpectedtoincrease
    thenumberofpeoplevulnerabletoooddisasterto
    2billion(UNU,2004).
    4.4.3Meetingthechallengesahead
    Meetingthechallengesassociatedwithdisasters
    causedbywater-relatedhazardsrequiresinvestment
    inandimplementationofgooddisasterrisk-reduc-
    tion(DRR)practice.Despiteimprovementsinpreven-
    tiveeforts,disasterswillstilloccurandpreparedness
    andresponsecapacityisessential.Examplesofbest
    practicesledbyhumanitarians,governments,waterre-
    sourcesmanagers,theprivatesectoranddevelopment
    agenciesabound,althoughscalingtheseuptomeet
    realneedsremainsacentralchallenge.
    Disasterpreparednessisimproving;investmentsena-
    blingearlierearlywarningsandactionsarebeing
    undertaken(IFRC,2009).Forexample,realinvest-
    mentsincapacityandtoolsthatincorporateweather
    andclimateinformationintocontingencyplanning
    andpreparednessactionareimprovingpreparedness
    andresponse-savingresources,livelihoodsandlives
    (Hellmuthetal.,2011).Investmentsinthecapacity
    ofcommunitiesandearlywarningsystemsinood-
    proneareas,suchasMozambique,haveresultedin
    betterpreparednessandresponseduringoodevents
    (GIZ,2007).InBotswana,seasonalforecastscanpro-
    videusefulindicationsofthelikelihoodofamalaria
    epidemicseveralmonthsinadvance(Hellmuthetal.,
    2009;Thomsonetal.,2006).
    totropicalcyclonesandoodsistrendingupbecause
    therapidlyincreasingexposureofeconomicassetsis
    outstrippingreductionsinvulnerability(IPCC,2007).
    Floodmortalityriskishighestinruralareaswithadense
    andrapidlygrowingpopulationandincountrieswith
    weakgovernance.Acrossallwater-relatedhazards,
    countrieswithlowGDPandweakgovernancetend
    tohavedrasticallyhighermortalityriskthanwealthier
    countrieswithstronggovernance(UNISDR,2011).
    Humanhealthisbothdirectlyandindirectlyimpacted
    bywater-relatedhazards.Outbreaksofwaterborne
    diseases,suchascholera,canoccurafterdisastersas
    aresultofcontaminatedorinadequatewatersupplies,
    sometimesafectingthousandsofpeopleandcausing
    manydeaths.Outbreaksofvector-bornediseasecan
    alsooccur.Forexample,malariaepidemicshavebeen
    showntooccurmorefrequently(inepidemic-prone
    areas)followingdryperiodsassociatedwithElNio-
    SouthernOscillationasdocumentedinColombia,Sri
    LankaandVenezuela(PAHO,2000).
    Incomplexdisasterswheremalnutrition,overcrowding
    andlackofthemostbasicsanitationarecommon,cat-
    astrophicoutbreaksofgastroenteritis(causedbychol-
    eraorotherdiseases)haveoccurred(PAHO,2000a).
    InHaitiin2010,guresreleasedbythegovernment
    aftertheearthquakeciteover200,000deaths,leaving
    alargeandhighlysusceptibledisplacedpopulationto
    confronthurricaneseasonandpotentialdiseaseout-
    breaks.Intheaftermathoftheearthquakedisasterand
    ooding,thecholeraoutbreakresultedinthehospitali-
    zationofnearly150,000people,andleftnearly5,000
    dead(USAID,2011).
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER4
    Despite improvements
    in preventive eforts,
    disasters will still occur
    and preparedness and
    response capacity is
    essential.
    119
    havechangedtheirapproachoverthepastfew
    decades,shiftingfromresponseandrecoverytoa
    morebalancedapproachthatincludesriskreduc-
    tion:However,complementarycapacity-buildingand
    nancingmechanismsaresorelyneededtollthegap.
    Giventhatthecostandfrequencyofooddisastersis
    ontherise,investmentsinpreparednessactivitiesand
    associatedinfrastructure,oodplainpolicydevelop-
    ment,efectivewatershedlanduseplanning,ood
    forecastingandwarningsystems,andresponsemech-
    anismsareessentialtoreducingrisksandimpacts
    (UNISDR,2011).Comprehensiveassessmentsofrisks
    fromwater-relatedhazardsarenecessary,notonlyfor
    improvedunderstandingofchangingrisks,butalsofor
    betterdecision-making,planningandimplementation
    ofsustainablesolutions.
    Finally,becauseofrapidchangeandsometimesdis-
    continuityinthecombinationofpolitical,economic
    andsocialforces,futurerisksareunknown.Reecting
    onscenariosdescribingpossiblefuturescanhelpdeci-
    sion-makerstotakealonger-termview.
    4.5Impactofdeserticationonwater
    resources
    Poorandunsustainablelandutilizationandmanage-
    mentpracticesareleadingtodeserticationandland
    degradationaroundtheworld,increasingpressureon
    Todealwithescalatingcosts,governmentsareincreas-
    inglyusinginsurancemechanismsandweatherindexes
    tohelpthemmanageriskmoreefectively.Theseofer
    payoutswhenextremeweathereventsoccur,ofering
    thekeyadvantageofspeedinginjectionsofcash,al-
    lowingformoretimelyresponses.Anotheradvantage
    istheabilitytomakeconcreteplansevenbeforedisas-
    terstrikes,knowingthatfundswillbeavailablewhen
    needed.TheCaribbean,Ethiopia,India,Malawiand
    Mexicoprovideexamplesofindexinsurancefordisas-
    terrelief(Hellmuthetal.,2009).
    InvestmentinDRRtargetstherootcausesofvulner-
    ability,whichoftenstemfromacombinationofpoliti-
    cal,economicandsocialforces,aswellastheimpacts
    ofhighlyvariablerainfall.Forexample,inchronicfood
    insecurityregions,programmesthatcomplementfood
    aidandbuildresilienceandproductivityarenecessary
    toliftpeopleoutofpovertytraps(Trenchetal.,2007).
    Households,forexample,mayemploymitigation
    strategiestoreducevulnerabilityortheimpactofrisk
    bypoolingrisksthroughinformalorformalinsurance
    mechanisms.
    Withregardtoextremeevents,arecentstudyof141
    countriesfoundthatmorewomenthanmendiefrom
    naturalhazards,andthatthisdisparityislinkedmost
    stronglytowomensunequalsocio-economicstatus.
    Wherethesocio-economicstatusofwomenishigh,
    menandwomenwilldieinroughlyequalnumbers
    duringandafternaturalhazards,whereasmorewom-
    enthanmendie(ordieatayoungerage)wherethe
    socio-economicstatusofwomenislow(Neumayer
    andPlumper,2007,p.5).Mainstreaminggenderinto
    DRRofersanopportunityforimprovingdisasterresil-
    ienceandenhancinggenderequalityandsustainable
    development.However,introducingagenderperspec-
    tivetoDRRrequiresachangeinattitudeforpolicy-
    makersandimplementers.Everycitizenhasaroleto
    playinreducingdisasterrisk,butgovernmentscan
    createanenablingenvironmentforwomenandmen
    toparticipateintheefort.Thiswouldincludecommu-
    nicationsandwarningsystemsthatcanbeaccessed
    bywomen,andtappingintotheirknowledgeandskills,
    whicharecrucialwhenmanagingandaddressingrisks
    (UNISDRetal.,2009;seeBox4.7).
    AlthoughinvestmentinDRR,includingwaterresourc-
    esinfrastructure,continuestolag,awarenessisbeing
    raisedandquantiedevidenceisbeingproducedre-
    gardingitsrelativecost-efectiveness.Humanitarians
    WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    BOX 4.7
    Womenintimesofdisaster
    Womenareusuallyresponsibleforchildrenandtheel-
    derly;thereforethedemandsonthemimmediatelyprior
    toandduringadisasterareverydiferentfromthoseof
    men.Suchdiferentdemandsareespeciallyimportant
    toconsiderinthecaseofrapidonsetdisasters,when
    thetimebetweenreceivingawarningandresponding
    canbeverylimited.Areporton Mainstreaming Gender
    into Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction (Dimitrjevics,
    2007)providessomeexamplesofdisastermanagersset-
    tingupchildcarefacilitieson-sitesothatfemalestafwho
    areimpactedbyadisastercanstillworktoassistothers.
    Thistypeofon-the-spotdecisionillustrateshowroutine
    contingencyplanningtoprovidechildcaretowomenin-
    volvedinearlywarningandemergencyresponsecould
    helpmorepeople.Theexampleabovealsoillustratesthat
    knowledge,acceptanceandrespectforgenderdiferenc-
    esandstrongsocialnorms,canimproveresponseaswell
    astheplanningandadministrationofreliefitems(UNISDR
    etal.,2009).
    120
    turningthemintodesolatewastes,afectinghuman
    livelihoodsandwell-being,exacerbatingpovertyand
    forcedhumanmigration,aswellasinictingdestitution
    onthepopulationsofvastareasandthreateningthem
    withfoodscarcity,malnutritionandfamine.
    Globally,DLDDafects1.5billionpeoplewhodependon
    degradingareas,anditiscloselyassociatedwithpov-
    erty,with42%oftheverypoorlivingindegradedareas,
    comparedwith32%ofthemoderatelypoorand15%of
    thenon-poor(Nachtergaeleetal.2010).Accordingto
    estimates,24billiontonsoffertilesoilsaredisappear-
    ingannually,andoverthepast20yearsthesurfacearea
    lostisequaltoallofthefarmlandoftheUSA.Inthe
    faceofDLDD,itisestimatedthatasubstantialpropor-
    tionoftheearthsnaturalforestshavealreadybeen
    destroyed,andover60%ofecosystemservicesareal-
    readydegraded.Thisnegativetrendissettocontinue
    atanacceleratingpaceoverthenexthalfcentury.For
    example,upto90%ofWestAfricascoastalrainforests
    havedisappearedsince1900(MA,2005b).
    waterresourcesandleadingtowaterscarcity.Recent
    estimatesindicatethatnearly2billionhaoflandworld-
    wideanareatwicethesizeofChinaarealreadyseri-
    ouslydegraded,someirreversibly(FAO,2008).Land
    degradationisincreasing,withalmostone-quarterof
    thegloballandareabeingdegradedbetween1981and
    2003.Theemphasisonlanddegradationhasfocused
    ondrylandareas,buthumidareasarealsoexperiencing
    asurprisinglevelofgloballanddegradation,morethan
    initiallythought(Baietal.,2008).
    4.5.1Recognizingdesertication,landdegradation
    anddroughtimperatives
    Desertication,landdegradationanddrought(DLDD)
    constituteaubiquitouschallengeinthedrylandre-
    gionsoftheworld(Figure4.7;Box4.8),butareoc-
    curringinallagro-ecologicalzonesandareincreas-
    inglyconsideredaglobalproblemwiththeirextentand
    impactsafectingenvironmentalandsocialvulnerabil-
    ity.ThroughouttheworldDLDDafectsarablelands,
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER4
    FIGURE 4.7
    Theextentofdrylandsystemsworldwide(2000)
    Notes: Drylands include all terrestrial regions where the production of crops, forage, wood and other ecosystem services are limited by water.
    Formally, the denition encompasses all lands where the climate is classied as dry subhumid, semiarid, arid or hyper arid. This classication is
    based on Aridity Index (AI) values. The AI is the long-term mean of the ratio of an areas mean annual precipitation to its mean annual potential
    evapotranspiration.
    Source: MA (2005c, appendix A, p. 23, from data sources cited therein).
    121
    Suchisthecaseinsub-SaharanAfrica,where800mil-
    lionpeoplelive,withapopulationgrowthrateofmore
    than2.5%(Carles,2009).Statisticalanalysisofrain-
    fallpatternsinsomeofthedrylandsregionsrevealsa
    steppeddropintheearly1970s,whichhaspersisted.
    Ananalysisofthesituationindicatesareductionofap-
    proximately20%inprecipitationlevels,whichresults
    ina40%reductioninsurfacerunof(EU,2007).
    4.5.2TheimpactsofDLDDonwaterresources
    Avarietyofhumanactivitiesmodifythelandscape,
    suchasdeforestation,veldtresandinappropriate
    farmingandanimalhusbandrypractices.Theseresult
    inthedegradationanddeserticationofwatersheds
    andcatchmentareas,andreducetheamountofusable
    safewateravailabledownstream.Often,suchland-
    scapemodicationstendtoexacerbatesoilerosionand
    reducethesoilwater-holdingcapacity,anddecrease
    therechargeofgroundwaterandexistingsurfacewa-
    terstoragecapacity,throughsiltationandsedimenta-
    tionofriversandreservoirsthatsubsequentlyresultin
    waterscarcityovertime.Furthermore,thedrainingof
    wetlandsreduceswateravailabilitytorechargeground-
    water,resultinginwaterscarcityinthelongtermasthe
    groundwatertablerecedes.Inaddition,thediversionof
    riversforagricultural(irrigation)orindustrialpurposes
    deprivesriversandlakesoftheirusualow,contribut-
    ingtowaterscarcityintheirhinterland.
    Deserticationisamajorculpritininducingwater
    scarcitythroughdirectreductionoffreshwaterre-
    serves.Itdirectlyimpactsriverowratesbyincreasing
    riverwaterturbidity,whichinturnenhancessiltation
    andsedimentationinsurfacewaterreservoirsandes-
    tuaries.Deserticationalsonegativelyimpactsground-
    watertablesbyreducingasoilscapacitytoallow
    watertopercolateintheeventofrainfall.Inthefaceof
    deserticationandtheresultantwaterscarcity,accel-
    eratedandoftenrampantexploitationofunderground
    waterreservesfrequentlyoccurstomeetsocio-eco-
    nomicneeds,leadingtogradualdepletionofground-
    waterandincreasedwaterscarcity.
    RichdrylandnationslikeAustraliaarenotimmuneto
    waterscarcityeither.Droughtiscausingacutewa-
    tershortagesinlargepartsofAustralia,Africa,Asia
    andtheUSA(Morrisonetal.,2009).Regardless,an
    urbanAustralianontheaverageconsumes300Lwa-
    terdailyandaEuropean200L,whileinsub-Saharan
    Africaanindividualmakesdowithlessthan20Lper
    day(Natarajan,2007).Besidesdroughts,riverows
    Thoseafectedincludetheworldspoorest,mostmargin-
    alizedandpoliticallyweakcitizens.Indiaaloneaccounts
    for26%ofthispopulation,China17%andsub-Saharan
    Africa24%.TheremainingpartoftheAsia-Pacicac-
    countsfor18.3%.Theotherpartsoftheworldarenotfar
    behind,withLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanaccounting
    for6.2%andNorth-EastandNorthAfrica4.6%(ICRISAT,
    2008).WhileDLDDafectsallregionsoftheworld,ithas
    itsgreatestimpactinAfricawheretwo-thirdsofthecon-
    tinentisdesertordrylands.
    Givendeserticationandlanddegradation,anum-
    berofcountriesinthedrylandsfaceincreasingwater
    scarcity.Mostdrylandshavehyper-arid,arid,semi-arid
    andsubhumidclimaticconditionswithlimitedwater
    resources,whichalmostentirelydependonrainfallfor
    replenishment.Rainfallishighlyvariablewithconsider-
    ableregionalvariations.Two,threeormoreconsecu-
    tivedryyearsareexperiencedduringsomesevere
    droughtperiods.Consequently,manypeopleinthe
    drylandssuferfromalackofaccesstowaterwhereit
    isveryunevenlydistributed.
    WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    Source: Reproduced from Rogers (1995).
    BOX 4.8
    Keyfactsondesertication
    Desertifcationoccursthroughlanddegradationinarid
    semi-aridanddrysubhumidareasresultingfromvari-
    ousfactors,includingclimaticvariationsandhuman
    activities.
    Desertifcationisnotascommonlythoughttheactual
    expansionofexistingdeserts.
    Desertifcationafectsnearlybillionpeopleorone
    sixthoftheworldspopulation.
    Desertifcationisoccurringinofalldrylandsor
    one-quarterofthetotallandareaoftheearth.
    Desertifcationisresponsibleforthedegradationof
    oftheworldsrangeland.
    DesertifcationisespeciallysevereinAfricawheretwo
    thirdsofthecontinentisdesertordrylands,andwhere
    73%ofitsagriculturaldrylandsarealreadyseriouslyor
    moderatelydegraded.
    Asiacontainsthelargestamountoflandafectedby
    deserticationofanycontinent-justunder1400million
    ha.
    NearlytwothirdsofLatinAmericasdrylandsaremod-
    eratelytoseverelydesertied.
    Desertifcationisestimatedtocosttheworldmorethan
    US$40billionayearinlostproductivity.
    122
    theinevitablefailureofagriculture,becauseitisthe
    largestwater-consumingsectorofpooreconomies
    (Carles,2009).Thus,ifdrylandcountriescouldreduce
    theimpactsofDLDDonwaterresourcesandachieve
    watersecurity,opportunitiesofachievingfoodsecu-
    ritywouldbegreatlyenhanced.Itisthereforeessential
    forcountriestotakeappropriatemeasurestoaddress
    DLDDimperativesinthequestforgreaterwaterand
    foodsecurity.
    InresponsetoDLDD,somegovernmentsandwater
    authoritiesresorttoinvestinginsupply-sidemeasures
    thatincreasetheextractionofcountrieswaterre-
    sources,suchasriverdiversions,constructionofwater
    reservoirsandgroundwaterpumping.Otherinvest-
    mentsthatcanbemadeincludewater-efcientpro-
    cesses,water-savingirrigationschemesandwaterre-
    cyclingandreuse.Someofthesemeasures,whilethey
    enhancewateravailabilityandaccessibilityandim-
    provetheprospectsforwatersecurity,bringenviron-
    mentalandfurthernancialcosts,reducedownstream
    watersecurityandaggravatewaterstress.
    TheAralSeaandLakeChad,forexample,aredisap-
    pearingbecauseofupstreaminfrastructuredevelop-
    ments.LakeChadhaslost95%ofitssizesincethe
    1960s.Riverdiversioncanalsocauseconictswherea
    basinissharedbyanumberofripariancountries.For
    example,anumberofriverbasinsinAfricaareshared
    bymorethanveriparianstates,includingtheCongo
    (13),theNiger(11),theNile(10),theZambezi(9)Lake
    Chad(8)andtheVolta(6)(Carles,2009).Themoni-
    toringandmanagementofsuchtransboundarywater
    resourcesismorecomplexandcanposegreaterrisks
    intermsofDLDDifimproperlymanaged,particularly
    fordownstreamusers.
    4.5.3CombatingDLDDimperativestomitigatethe
    challengesofwaterscarcity
    Deserticationshouldnotbeconsideredasanisolated
    processandneithershoulditsmitigationprocesses.It
    constitutesanintegralpartofsocio-economicdevel-
    opmentinvolvingsustainablemanagementoftheland
    andwaterresources.Thus,combatingdeserticationis
    complexanddifcult,andusuallyimpossiblewithout
    alterationoftheverylandmanagementpracticesthat
    ledtoitsoccurrence.
    Avarietyofdiferentmeasuresarebeingapplied
    worldwidetoreducelanddegradationandavert
    deserticationandwaterscarcity.Inricepaddies
    andwatersuppliesarebeingreducedbyshrinking
    snowcapsacrossChina,IndiaandPakistancountries
    wheremorethan1billionpeoplealreadylackaccessto
    safedrinkingwaterandadequatesanitation(Morrison
    etal.,2009).
    Oftenabsentintheseafectedareasareefcientand
    reliableearlywarningsystemstoalertthepopula-
    tionsofimpendingDLDD-relateddisasters.Inthedry-
    lands,thetimingofdroughtandthelackofsuitable
    technologicaloptionsoftenlimittheexibilityofpoor
    householdstomaketacticaladjustmentsindrought
    managementpracticestoreducelosses(Pandeyet
    al.,2007).Whererainsarelate,farmersmostlydelay
    plantingorreplantwhensuitableopportunitiesarise,
    andmayreducefertilizeruse.Whendroughtsandwa-
    terscarcityarelate,theopportunitiesforcropman-
    agementadjustmentstoreducelossesareoftenno
    longeravailable.
    OneofthemajorimpactsofDLDD-associatedwa-
    terscarcityisfeltthroughfoodinsecurityandstar-
    vationamongafectedcommunities,particularlyin
    developingcountriesinthedrylands.DLDD-related
    waterscarcitybringsaboutuncertaintiesthatinevita-
    blymakecommunitiesvulnerable.Themajorissueis
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER4
    In the drylands, the
    timing of drought
    and the lack of
    suitable technological
    options often limit
    the exibility of poor
    households to make
    tactical adjustments in
    drought management
    practices to reduce
    losses.
    123
    Althoughpredictingfuturewaterdemandsforagri-
    culturethegreatestuserofwaterbyfarisfraught
    withuncertainty,globalagriculturalwaterconsump-
    tionisestimatedtoincreasebyabout20%by2050.
    Thisincreasecouldbeevenhigherifsubstantialim-
    provementinproductivityofrainfedandirrigated
    agriculturearenotsetinplacetomeettheincreasing
    demandforfoodfrompopulationgrowthandchang-
    ingdiets.
    Thegrowingdemandforenergywillalsocreatein-
    creasingpressureonwaterresources,especiallyin
    sub-SaharanAfricaandintheleastdevelopedcoun-
    triesofSouthAsia,whichaccountfor80%ofthe1.5
    billionpeoplelackingaccesstoelectricityglobally.
    Growingdemandforbiofuelsandotherwater-inten-
    siveenergysources,suchasbituminoussandsand
    shalegas,willonlyaddtotheenergysectorsgrowing
    waterfootprint.
    Proportionally,waterusebytheindustrysectortends
    toincreasewithrisinglevelsofnationaldevelopment,
    asgrowingeconomiesshiftfromagriculture-basedto
    morediversiedeconomies.Demandshouldtherefore
    beexpectedtoseethehighestrateofgrowthincoun-
    trieswiththefastestgrowingeconomies.
    Likeenergyandindustry,demandforwatersupply
    andsanitationserviceswillalsoincreaseparticularlyin
    developingcountries.AlthoughtheMDGshavehelped
    toelevatetheimportanceoftheseservicesontona-
    tionalandinternationalpolicyagendas,muchremains
    tobedone.Furthermore,nationalandlocalgovern-
    ments,whichareultimatelyresponsibleformeet-
    ingthegrowthindomesticdemand,willstillneedto
    competewithothersectorsforoften-limitedwater
    supplies.
    Ecosystemsarebothusers(Chapter2)andsuppliers
    (Section4.2)ofwater.Somewaterisrequiredforthe
    protectionandmaintenanceofhealthyecosystems,
    whichinturnprovideimportantservicesrelatedtowa-
    terqualityandprotectionagainstextremeevents,as
    wellasmaintaininglivelihoodsamongotherbenets.
    Humanhealth(Section4.1)willalsovitallybenetfrom
    healthyecosystems,safewaterresources,andwatersup-
    plyandsanitationservices.Maintaininghumanhealth
    throughwatertranslatesintoproductivitygainsfrom
    incomeearnedfromthosesavedfromprematuredeath
    fromdiarrhoea,gainsinhealthcareservicesintreating
    throughoutthemountainousregionsofAsia,terrac-
    ingisemployedtorestrainwatererosion.Onless
    steeplyslopingland,contourstrip-farmingworkswell.
    Conservationagriculture,whichincludesbothno-
    tillandminimumtillage,isanadditionaltoolinsoil
    conservation.Conservationagricultureiswidelyused
    inArgentina,Australia,Brazil,CanadaandtheUSA,
    aswellasinsomepartsofAfrica,AsiaandEurope,
    (Brown,2006).
    Thepromotionofsoil,waterandvegetationconserva-
    tion,combinedwithmeasurestorehabilitate,conserve
    andprotectthenaturalenvironment,areprerequisites
    forsustainablelandmanagement(SLM).Practising
    SLMisoneofthefewoptionsforsustaininglivelihoods
    andgeneratingincomewithoutdestroyingthequality
    ofthelandandthewaterresources,whichareneeded
    foragriculturalproduction,foodsecurity,protectionof
    biologicaldiversity,aswellaspreventingandmitigat-
    ingDLDDimperatives.
    DecisionsonhowbesttocombatDLDDmustalsobe
    basedonsolidscienticandeconomicanalysis,rec-
    ognizingtheimportanceoflocalknowledgeincross-
    sectorallandandwaterresourcesmanagement,and
    shiftingfocusfromhumanusesoffreshwaterasa
    technicalissuetotheroleoffreshwaterincatchments
    forthegenerationofecosystemandsocietalservices.
    Anypoliciesadoptedshouldenableparticipationof
    keystakeholderandincorporationoftheirecological
    knowledgeintoinstitutionalstructuresinamulti-level
    governancesystem.Consequently,thedevelopmentof
    solutionsmustnecessarilybeinclusiveandmulti-sec-
    toral(ClimateInstitute,2009).
    Finally,successfulpoliciesrecognizethatfreshwater
    systemsarecomplexandadaptiveandcanbedegrad-
    edirreversibly(SIWI,2009).TheefectsofDLDDcan
    befeltglobally,butthesolutionsaremostoftenofa
    local,nationalorregionalnature.Anintegratedand
    coordinatedapproachtocombatDLDD,atlocal,na-
    tionalandtransboundarylevels,andpoliciesthatare
    highlyintegrated,arerequiredtomitigatethevarious
    problemsassociatedwithwaterscarcity.
    4.6Inoroutofbalance?
    4.6.1Balancingusesandsupplies:Notionsofwater
    stressandwaterscarcity
    AsdescribedthroughoutChapter2,theglobalde-
    mandforwaterisexpectedtogrowsignicantlyforall
    majorsectorsusingwater.
    WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    124
    cannotsupplyenoughwaterifnotmanagedcarefully
    (Patterson,2009).
    Water stress and water scarcity
    Hydrologiststypicallyassessscarcitybylookingatthe
    population-waterequation.Anareaisexperiencing
    waterstresswhenannualwatersuppliesdropbelow
    1,700m
    3
    perperson.Whenannualwatersuppliesdrop
    below1,000m
    3
    perperson,thepopulationfaceswater
    scarcity,andbelow500m
    3
    absolutescarcity(UN-
    Water,n.d.)(Figure4.8).
    Thenotionsofwaterstressandwaterscarcitymight
    appearsynonymous,butthisisnotalwaysthecase,
    anddiferentdenitionshavebeenusedtodescribe
    theseterms,sometimesleadingtoconfusion.Forex-
    ample,thetermwater stressisgenerallyusedtode-
    scribetheratioofwateruse(i.e.theamountofwater
    withdrawnfromthenaturalhydrologicalsystem)over
    thetotalamountofrenewablewateravailable.Thus,
    thehighertheuseasafractionofavailablewater,the
    higherthestressonthesupplysystem.
    fewerpatients,andthedirectcoststopatientsofmedi-
    cationandtransportation,aswellasthetime-savingben-
    etsforpeoplecurrentlywithinadequateserviceswho
    gainaccesstonearbywaterandsanitationfacilities.
    Asdescribedintheprevioussectionofthischapter,
    theincreasingnumberandcostofwater-relateddisas-
    terscreatenegativeconsequencesthatdirectlyafect
    humanlivelihoodsandimpactnationaldevelopment.
    Whilepercapitaconsumptionofwaterisdecreasing
    inmostoftheindustrializedworld,overalldemand
    forwaterisincreasingthroughoutallmajorusesec-
    tors,drivenprimarilybythegrowingdemandsfor
    foodandenergyinthedevelopingworldandemerg-
    ingeconomies.Thiswillinvariablyincreasepressure
    ontheearthslimitedwaterresources,whichinmany
    regionsarealreadyexperiencingvaryinglevelsof
    waterstress.Theworldistransitioningtoanewera
    wherenitewaterconstraintsarestartingtolimit
    futureeconomicgrowthanddevelopment,anditis
    becomingclearthatevenrenewablewaterresources
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER4
    FIGURE 4.8
    Freshwateravailability(m
    3
    perpersonperyear,2007)
    Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal (2008) (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global-waterstress-and-scarcity, P. Rekacewicz [cartographer]
    (Le Monde diplomatique), with sources FAO and WRI).
    1 000 1 700 6 000 15 000 70 000 684 000 0 2 500
    Data non available
    Scarcity
    Stress
    Vulnerability
    125 WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    FIGURE 4.9
    GlobalWaterStressIndicator(WSI)inmajorbasins
    FIGURE 4.10
    Globalphysicalandeconomicwaterscarcity
    Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal (2008) (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/water-scarcity-index, P. Rekacewicz [cartographer], with sources
    Smakhtin, Revenga and Dll [2004]).
    Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (2007, map 2.1, p. 63, IWMI, http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/).
    Denitions and indicators
    LittleornowaterscarcityAbundantwaterresourcesrelativetousewithlessthanofwaterfromriverswithdrawnforhumanpurposes
    PhysicalwaterscarcitywaterresourcesdevelopmentisapproachingorhasexceededsustainablelimitsHorethanofriverfowsare
    withdrawnforagricultureindustryanddomesticpurposesaccountingforrecyclingofreturnfows1hisdefnitionrelatingwateravailability
    towaterdemandimpliesthatdryareasarenotnecessarilywaterscarce
    ApproachingphysicalwaterscarcityHorethanofriverfowsarewithdrawn1hesebasinswillexperiencephysicalwaterscarcityinthenearfuture
    Lconomicwaterscarcityhumaninstitutionalandfnancialcapitallimitaccesstowatereventhoughwaterinnatureisavailablelocallytomeethuman
    demandsWaterresourcesareabundantrelativetowaterusewithlessthanofwaterfromriverswithdrawnforhumanpurposesbutmalnutritionexists
    0,3 0,5 0,7 1 and more
    Over
    exploited
    Heavily
    exploited
    Moderately
    exploited
    Slightly
    exploited
    Physicalwaterscarcity
    Approachingphysical
    waterscarcity
    Economicwaterscarcity
    Littleornowaterscarcity
    Notestimated
    126
    impingesonthesupplyorqualityofwaterunderpre-
    vailinginstitutionalarrangementstotheextentthat
    thedemandbyallsectors,includingtheenvironment,
    cannotbesatisedfully.Thus,wherewaterstressis
    aphysicalconcept,waterscarcityisthereforearela-
    tiveconceptandcanoccuratanylevelofsupplyor
    demand.Scarcitymaybeasocialconstruct(aproduct
    ofafuence,expectationsandcustomarybehaviour)
    ortheconsequenceofalteredsupplypatternsstem-
    mingfromclimatechangeforexample(UN-Water,
    n.d.).
    Thephysicalscarcityregionsareconsistentwiththe
    high-stressregionsinFigure4.9.However,regions
    suchascentralAfrica,north-easternIndia,north-east-
    ernpartsofSouthAmericaandSouth-EastAsia,which
    havemediumtolowwaterstress(Figure4.9),experi-
    encewaterscarcitywhichispurelyduetoinstitutional
    andeconomicbarriers.
    Althoughnite,asdescribedinChapter3,theworlds
    freshwaterresourcescanbehighlyvariableovertime
    andacrossriversbasinsasafunctionofclimatevari-
    ability.Climatechangewillafectbothprecipitation
    patternsaswellasthemeltingofsnowandice,result-
    inginincreasingvariabilityintheowsofsurfacewa-
    tersfromwhichmostofourfreshwateriswithdrawn.
    Severalresearchersandagencieshavecomputedthe
    water stress ofwatershedandgridscalesbyincorpo-
    ratingdomestic,industrialandagriculturalwatercon-
    sumption,againstrenewablesuppliesofwaterfrom
    precipitation,riversandgroundwater.Figure4.9shows
    onesuchmap,whichisconsistentwithothermaps
    (e.g.Maplecroft,2011;Smakhtinetal,2003;Veolia
    Water,2011)aseachisbasedonsimilarifnotidentical
    datasets.TheArabRegioncountriesnationshavethe
    highestlevelsofwaterstress,aswellasmajorpartsof
    EasternChina,Indiaandthesouth-westernUSA.
    However,underthisdenition,lowwaterstressdoes
    notautomaticallyimplyreadyaccesstowater,whichis
    aparadoxthatalargeswathoftheglobalpopulation
    currentlyface.Whereaswater stressisafunctionof
    theavailabilityofwaterresources,theconceptofwa-
    ter scarcityisalsoafunctionofaccess.Inthisregard,
    economic scarcitywherebyaccessisnotlimitedby
    resourceavailability,butbyhuman,institutionaland
    nancialconstraintsoverdistributionoftheresource
    todiferentusergroupsformsamajorpartofthis
    paradox.Figure4.10illustratesglobalphysicaland
    economicwaterscarcity.
    AccordingtoUN-Water,
    2
    waterscarcityisdenedas
    thepointatwhichtheaggregateimpactofallusers
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER4
    Economic, social and political crises have been
    emerging at an accelerated rate. Although
    often described individually the food crisis,
    the energy crisis, the nancial crisis, the
    human health crisis, or the climate change
    crisis, to name but a few these crises are
    all inter-related though their causes and
    consequences. Their underlying causes often
    boil down to the ever-increasing competition
    for a few key often-limited resources, of
    which water is common to all.
    127
    toolstomeasuresocialandeconomicimpactsoftheir
    interventions.Itisimportantthattheyhaveanunder-
    standingofthesocialcontextandexistingpowerrela-
    tionsbeforeintroducinganewprojectandinforming
    decision-makersaccordingly.Thisapproachwillassist
    inselectingsolutionsbestsuitedtothecommunity,
    whichwillbesustainableinthelongterm.
    Economic,socialandpoliticalcriseshavebeenemerg-
    ingatanacceleratedrate.Althoughoftendescribed
    individuallythefoodcrisis,theenergycrisis,the-
    nancialcrisis,thehumanhealthcrisis,ortheclimate
    changecrisis,tonamebutafewthesecrisesareall
    inter-relatedthoughtheircausesandconsequences.
    Theirunderlyingcausesoftenboildowntotheever-
    increasingcompetitionforafewkeyoften-limited
    resources,ofwhichwateriscommontoall.These
    inter-relatedcrisesalsohaveconsequencesthatnega-
    tivelyafectgrowthanddevelopmentprospectsand
    havedisproportionate,negativeefectsonthepoor
    andvulnerable.
    Variousapproachestointernationalgovernance,as
    elaboratedinChapter1whethertheMDGsorsuch
    policytracksforsustainabledevelopmentasRio+20
    andthegreeneconomy
    3
    havefailedtorecognize
    thecentralroleofwaterasakeyingredientofpov-
    ertyreductionandsustainabledevelopment,cutting
    acrossthespectrum.Inbothcases,waterisrecog-
    nizedasanothersector,tobeaddressedmoreor
    lessindependentlyoftheothersectors.Thismay
    seemappropriatefromapurelydrinkingwaterand
    sanitationservicesperspective,asisthecasefor
    theMDGtargetondrinkingwaterandsanitation.It
    mayalsoseemappropriatewhencallingforthein-
    vestmentininfrastructure,water-policyreformand
    inthedevelopmentofnewtechnologyrequired
    tobridgethegapbetweenglobalsupplyandwa-
    terwithdrawals(UNEP,2011)asaspecicsector
    ofthegreeneconomy.However,suchanapproach
    acrosstheboardfurthercompartmentalizeswaterin
    termsofnationalpoliciesasdiferentministriesand
    otherauthoritiesbecomeresponsiblefortheirown
    commitmentsintermsofhealth,foodandagricul-
    ture,energyorurbansettlements.Infact,itisthese
    policydecisionsthatultimatelydeterminehowwater
    resourcesaretobeallocated.Therefore,thewa-
    ter-policyreform(forexample,ascalledforunder
    thegreeneconomyinthestatementabove)would
    actuallyentailabroaderreformofnationalpolicies
    wherebyconsiderationsforwaterarefullyincludedin
    Climatechangemodelsareconstantlyimprovingand
    generatingnewinformation,butadditionalresearch
    efortsarerequiredtoupdateourknowledgeconcern-
    ingpossiblefutureconditions,especiallyatregional
    andbasin-levelscales.Furthermore,severalofthe
    worldsmajoraquifers,especiallyinaridandsemi-ar-
    idregions,arebeingdepletedduetointensiveuseof
    theselimitedandhighlyvulnerablereserves.
    Itisthereforehighlyunlikelythatourincreasingde-
    mandforwaterwillbemetsolelythroughsupply-ori-
    entedsolutions.Rather,thekeysolutionstotheglobal
    andmostregionalandlocalwatercrisesresidesin
    ourabilitytobettermanagedemandwhileseekingto
    balanceandmaximizethevariousbenetsofwater.
    4.6.2Waterasthenexusforsectorsrelatedto
    developmentandpovertyreduction:Balancingthe
    trade-ofs
    Food,energy,opportunityforeconomicgrowth,hu-
    manandenvironmentalhealth,andprotectionagainst
    water-relateddisastersareallnecessaryingredientsof
    development,includingincomegenerationandpov-
    ertyreduction.Theyalldependonwater.Yetthese
    challengeshavetoooftenbeendealtwithinisola-
    tionratherthanaspartofanoverarchingandstra-
    tegicframeworkacrosssocietyandtheeconomy.As
    aresult,diferentdevelopmentalsectorsoftennd
    themselvescompetitionwitheachotherforthenite
    waterresourcesuponwhichtheyalldepend.Therefore,
    incountriesandregionswherewaterresourcesare
    limited,decisionsmadetogeneratebenetsfromone
    sectoroftenproducenegativeconsequencesforother
    sectors,throughwater,suchthattheoveralleconomic
    anddevelopmentalgainsfromonesectorareofsetby
    lossestoanother.
    Thissituationcanultimatelyleadtoshort-termand
    unsustainabledecision-makingandincreasethenum-
    berofpeopleafectedbywatershortages.Climate
    changeexacerbatesthisproblemstillfurther(Steer,
    2010).Moderneconomicthinkingandpolicy-making
    havecreatedaneconomythatissooutofalignment
    withtheecosystemonwhichitdependsthatitisap-
    proachingcollapse(Brown,2011).Changingthissitu-
    ationwillrequirethefullinclusionofconsiderations
    forwaterwithintheexistinggovernanceframeworks
    underwhichwaterismanagedacrosssectorsand
    regions,locallyandgloballythroughrepresenta-
    tiveinstitutionsthathavetheappropriateauthor-
    ity.Watermanagers,inturn,needtobefamiliarwith
    WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS
    128

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    133 WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    CHAPTER 5
    Water management, institutions
    and capacity development
    UNPhoto/DevraBerkowitz

    Authors RichardConnor,PatrikKlintenberg,AnthonyTurtonandJamesWinpenny
    Contributors JeroenAerts,DanielP.Loucks,ChrisPerry,WalterRastand
    JosG.Timmerman

    As described throughout the preceding chapters (14), water is central to all aspects of
    development, underpinning every social and economic sector. How humans manage water is
    therefore vital to the growth and prosperity of communities and societies. Yet the term water
    management is often used (and misunderstood) with many meanings ascribed to it, even
    among experts within the water community. But what does the term really mean? Protecting
    and managing the natural resource? Providing water-related services? Meeting allocation and
    entitlement agreements and distributing (sometimes limited) supplies across a broad range
    of complex, interlinked uses with increasingly uncertain demands? The short answer is all of
    the above and more.
    Previous editions of the World Water Development Report (WWDR) included calls
    for sustainable, improved and of course integrated water resources management. And
    indeed these concepts, along with adaptive management, are scattered throughout this
    fourth edition too, in terms of challenges and opportunities facing water management in
    diferent regions (Chapter 7); valuing and allocating water resources and benets (Chapter
    10); transforming water management institutions to deal with change (Chapter 11); and
    responding to risk and uncertainty from a water management perspective (Chapter 13).
    Building on the water management-related issues addressed in previous WWDRs, this
    chapter begins with a description of what water management actually is, including a brief
    examination of how approaches to water management in some regions have evolved over
    the past century and how they might continue to evolve to deal with increasing uncertainties
    and associated risks (a discussion which is continued in Chapter 11). The chapter also provides
    a descriptive overview of water-related institutions, which collectively set out the rules of
    the game for water management, and outlines some of the challenges these institutions will
    face in an increasingly uncertain future. The chapter concludes with a section highlighting the
    importance of knowledge and capacity as a critical element of institutional efectiveness.
    With the exception of Section 5.1, the material in this chapter has been condensed from
    the challenge area reports (Part 3/Volume 2) Water and institutional change: Responding
    to present and future uncertainty (Chapter 25) and Developing knowledge and capacity
    (Chapter 26).
    135
    Watermanagementisunique.Ittouchesuponalmost
    everyaspectofhumanwell-beingwithlinkstosocio-
    economicdevelopment,safety,humanhealth,the
    environmentandevenculturalandreligiousbeliefs
    (Dalcanaleetal.,2011).Forexample,allnations,devel-
    opedaswellasdeveloping,arevulnerabletorareand
    extremeoodevents.Thiswasdemonstratedin2005
    bythedevastationwroughtbyhurricaneKatrinain
    thesouthernUnitedStatesofAmerica,bythemas-
    siveoodingwhichtookplaceinPakistanin2010,and
    theinundationscausedbytsunamisinvariousparts
    ofsouthernandeasternAsiaoverthelastdecade.
    Lessvisible,butoftennolessdisastrous,efectsoccur
    throughdroughtssuchasthatbeingexperiencedin
    theHornofAfricain2011(wherelossofcropsthreat-
    enthelivesofthousandsofpeople),orthroughslow
    onsetdisasterssuchastheshrinkingoftheAralSea,
    whichhasafectedmanylivelihoods,theowoftoxic
    acidminedrainagefromvariousminingareasofSouth
    Africa(Coetzee,1995;Coetzeeetal.,2006;Hobbs
    etal.,2008;Winde,2009;WindeandvanderWalt,
    2004),andthelackofadequatewatersupplyand
    sanitation,whichcausesarangeofdiseasesandloss
    oflivesinmanypartsoftheworld.Yetsocio-economic
    developmentisdependenton,andthereforeafunc-
    tionof,availablewatersupplies.Thus,properwater
    managementisofvitalimportancetohumansociety
    inaworldwhereincreasingdemandsarebeingplaced
    onarelativelynitebutpotentiallyrenewableresource.
    Watermanagementoverthetwentiethcenturyoften
    involvedlargeinfrastructureprojectssuchasdamsand
    riverdiversions(WCD,2000).Thishasoftenbeende-
    scribedastheHard Path Approach bycertainauthors
    (WolfandGleick,2002),ortheHydraulic Mission
    phaseofeconomicdevelopmentbyothers(e.g.Allan,
    2000).Theseprojectswereusedtoaddressbothcon-
    ditionsofwaterscarcityandwaterexcesses;namely,
    theconstructionofarticialwaterstoragefacilities
    (dams)ortheexploitationofnaturalsystems(aquifer
    storageandrecharge),allowingwatertobestoredfor
    useduringperiodsofscarcity,andcontrollingitspo-
    tentiallydevastatingimpactsduringoods.Thecourse
    ofhumandevelopmenthasnotnecessarilyfollowed
    naturalpatternsofsustainability;rather,thesustain-
    abilityofwaterresourceshasinmanylocationsbeen
    overwhelmedbythecontinuallyexpandinghumanac-
    tivitiesassociatedwithsocio-economicdevelopment,
    includingagriculturalproduction,urbanizationandin-
    dustrialization.Manyofthesedemandsarenaturallyin
    conict,raisingtheneedtomanagetrade-ofs.While
    5.1Whydoweneedtomanagewater?
    Waterisafugitiveresource,owingthroughspaceand
    timeacrosslandscapesandthrougheconomies.All
    benetfromit,butfewunderstandhowitisactually
    managed.Themanagementofwaterisnotmerelya
    technicalissue;itrequiresamixofmeasuresincluding
    changesinpolicies,pricesandotherincentives,aswell
    asinfrastructureandphysicalinstallations.Integrated
    waterresourcesmanagement(IWRM)focusesonthe
    necessaryintegrationofwatermanagementacross
    sectors,policiesandinstitutions.
    Watermanagementisunderpinnedbylevelsofuncer-
    tainty.Thesearechangingasaconsequenceofglobal
    trendsindemography,consumptionpatternsand
    migration,andclimatechange,resultinginincreased
    levelsofrisk(seeChapters8and9).Adaptingtothese
    uncertaintiesanddevelopingstrategiesthatmitigate
    againstemergingrisksmakeswatermanagementpoli-
    cies,institutionsandregulationsmoreresilient,thereby
    increasingtheirchancesofgeneratingbenetstoso-
    ciety.AdaptivewatermanagementextendstoIWRM
    byfocusingonamoreexiblemanagementprocess
    toaddressuncertaintyandincludeactorswhosedeci-
    sionsafectwater,butwhodonotcurrentlyparticipate
    asanactivepartofthewatermanagementprocess.
    5.1.1Characteristicsofwatermanagementsystems
    Aswatermovesintimeandspaceconsistentwiththe
    hydrologicalcycle,thetermwatermanagementcovers
    avarietyofactivitiesanddisciplines.Broadlyspeaking,
    thesecanbedividedintothreecategories:managing
    theresource,managingwaterservices,andmanaging
    thetrade-ofsneededtobalancesupplyanddemand.
    Waterresourcemanagementisaboutmanagingwater
    foundinrivers,lakesandgroundwater.Thisincludes
    waterallocation,assessmentandpollutioncontrol;the
    protectionofwater-relatedecosystemsandwaterqual-
    ity;naturalandman-madeinfrastructurefortheredistri-
    butionandstorageoftheseresources;andgroundwater
    recharge.Waterservicemanagementconsistsofman-
    agingreticulationsystemsfromthebulkwatersupplier,
    throughtheprocessingphases,uptothepointofneed
    bytheenduser;andagaincapturingthewastestreams
    forreticulationbacktoawastewatertreatmentplantfor
    safeonwarddischarge.Themanagementof trade-ofs
    concernsarangeofadministrativeactivitiesthatmeet
    allocationandentitlementagreementsacrossawide
    spectrumofsocio-economicinterests.Eachactivityhas
    diferentrequirements,buttogethertheyaddupto
    whatiscalledwater management.
    WWDR4 WATERMANAGEMENT,INSTITUTIONSANDCAPACITYDEVELOPMENT
    136
    ecosystems,especiallywetlands,whichifleftunaltered
    oferawiderangeofbenetsthatareoftenessen-
    tialtomaintainingabasicstandardoflivinginboth
    urbanandruralareas(EmertonandBos,2004,p.20).
    Naturalecosystemssuchasforestsandwetlandsgen-
    erateimportanteconomicserviceswhichmaintainthe
    quantityandqualityofwatersupplies.Furthermore
    theyhelptomitigateoravertwater-relateddisas-
    terssuchasoodinganddrought(EmertonandBos,
    2004).
    Contemporarywatermanagershavetodealwithan
    increasinglycomplexpicture.Theirresponsibilitiesen-
    tailmanagingvariableanduncertainsuppliestomeet
    rapidlychanginganduncertaindemands;balancing
    ever-changingecological,economicandsocialvalues;
    facinghighrisksandincreasingunknowns;andsome-
    timesneedingtoadapttoeventsandtrendsasthey
    unfold.Inshort,themanagementofwaterincreas-
    inglyfocusesonriskanduncertainty,andtheemerg-
    ingrangeofdriversandimpactsoftenlieoutsidethe
    traditionalwaterarena.Moreover,efectivewaterman-
    agementdemandstransboundarycoordinationina
    contextwhereatotalof276internationalriverbasins
    coveralmosthalftheearthssurface(Bakker,2007;De
    Stefanoetal.,2010;OSU,n.d.,2008data),andsome
    273identiedtransboundaryaquifersunderpinvarious
    nationaleconomies(PuriandAureli,2009).
    Watermanagementconsequentlyisnotonlyatech-
    nicalissue,butalsoonethatrequiresamuchmore
    nuancedandholisticapproachtoachieveitsgoals.
    Duringthetwentiethcenturythefocuswastraditional-
    lyonstructuraloptionsforwatermanagementdevel-
    opingphysicalinfrastructuretotameorcontrolwa-
    ter.Today,inthecountriesthathaveachievedessential
    waterinfrastructuredevelopment,thereisaneedfor
    increasedattentiononnon-structuralmanagement
    optionstodealwiththelimitationofinfrastructural
    interventionsinhydrologicalsystems,underpinnedby
    growinguncertainty.Emergingtwenty-rstcentury
    watermanagementcanbethoughtofasincreasingly
    focusedonsoftinfrastructure,mostnotablyassoci-
    atedwiththemanagementoftrade-ofs,andincreas-
    inglydependentoninstitutions,policy,legislationand
    dialoguebetweencompetingusers(seeChapter11).
    SomeauthorsrefertothisastheSoft Path Approach
    (Brooksetal.,2009;WolfandGleick,2002).Having
    benetedfromdecadesofinfrastructuredevelopment,
    thechallengeformostdevelopedcountriesistoincor-
    poratesoftmeasuresintoexistingwatermanagement
    allwatersareunderpressureglobally,groundwater
    isofparticularconcern:increasingexploitationasa
    resultofimproveddrillingandpumpingtechnology
    hasresultedinsituationsofseveredepletioninmany
    countries(seeChapter3).Theworldistransitioningto
    anewerawherenitewaterconstraintsarestarting
    tolimitfutureeconomicgrowthanddevelopment.Itis
    becomingclearthatevenrenewablewaterresources
    cannotsupplyenoughwaterifnotmanagedcarefully
    (Patterson,2009).
    Thetwentiethcenturywascharacterizedbythedam-
    buildingera,asengineeringdesignimprovedandbet-
    tersteel-reinforcedconcretebecameavailable.This
    gaverisetowhatcanbetermedtheinfrastructure
    approach,asanelementoftheHard Path Approach
    ortheHydraulic Mission,inwhichitwasbelievedthat
    themereprovisionofhardinfrastructurewouldsufce
    tomeetthevariedneedsofhumanity(Allan,2000).
    Overtimethelimitationsofthehardinfrastructureap-
    proachhavebecomeincreasinglyclear(Snaddonet
    al.,1999).Forexample,intheNetherlands,itwasreal-
    izedthatcontinualheighteningofdykeswasultimate-
    lyunsustainable.Thishasledtoanewapproachthat
    foregroundsrespectfornaturalhydrologicalcondi-
    tionsandacknowledgesthelimitationstotheben-
    etofhardinfrastructure(vanStokkometal.,2005).
    Experienceisnowshowingthatsubstantialalterations
    inhydrologicalconditions,mostnotablychangesin
    thenaturaloodpulse(Junketal.,1989;Puckridgeet
    al.,1993)causedbyinterventionssuchasinter-basin
    transfers(Snaddonetal.,1999),haveledtounin-
    tendedconsequences,sometimescalledrevenge ef-
    fects(Tenner,1996).Theseincludethedeteriorationof
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER5
    The world is
    transitioning to a
    new era where nite
    water constraints are
    starting to limit future
    economic growth and
    development.
    137
    waterstorage,whichnecessarilyincreaseswithsocio-
    economicdevelopmentandclimatechange.Innovative
    storageinfrastructurecansometimeshelptoover-
    comethedisadvantagesofhardinfrastructuralmeas-
    ures,whilemaintainingtheiradvantages.Thepotential
    ofworkingwithnaturebyusinggreeninfrastructure
    (suchaswetlands)andlessintrusivedams,therefore
    ofersverypromisingopportunities(WolfandGleick,
    2002).Oneexampleistheuseofpermeablesurface
    coatingsinurbanareas,ratherthanconcrete,toreduce
    stormwaterrunofwhileenhancingtheurbanecosys-
    tem;however,theimplementationofsuchstrategiesis
    usuallybeyondthescopeofwatermanagers.Inrecog-
    nitionofthefactthatnewphysicalinfrastructurewill
    beneededforfood,energyandoodprotectionand
    enhancedstoragetoadapttoclimatechange,proper
    measuresmustbetakenintheoverallspectrumfrom
    planningtooperationofsuchinfrastructure.Aswith
    allhardapproaches,however,whetherdirectedto
    agriculture,urbanorindustrialwateruses,neworup-
    datedwaterinfrastructuremaybenecessary.Itmust
    benotedthatthisincreasesthecomplexityofwater
    management,byvirtueofthegreaterrangeofactors
    andissuesbeingincorporatedintothedecision-
    makingprocess.Thismeansthatanincreaseinrisk
    andvulnerabilityisaninherentpropertyofthesystem
    bywhichwaterismanaged.
    Twenty-rst century water management: The
    emergence of a range of softer measures
    Inresponsetotheshortcomingsofapproachesbased
    onphysicalinfrastructure,therehasbeenagradual
    shifttowardspoliciesbasedoninstitutionalreform,
    incentivesandbehaviouralchange(seeChapter11).
    Thesetypesofapproachesseektoreducetheuncer-
    taintiesandmanagetherisksrelatedtowaterresourc-
    esbyembracingmoreofthenon-traditionalelements
    foundoutsidethetraditionalwaterbox.Heretherole
    ofwatermanagersistoinformthedecisionstaken
    byothers.Theseincludechangesinhumanbehav-
    iourrelatedtowaterusageandrevisedwatergovern-
    anceprocessesandsystems.Theyconstitutearange
    ofgenerallycomplementaryactions,includingcultural
    values,waterpricing,waterconservation,waterreal-
    location,economicincentives/disincentives,andsocial
    recognitionforreducinginefcientwaterusepractices,
    diversifyingwatersourcesandsimilaractivities.Asall
    oftheseareconsideredtobeoutofthebox,thesoft
    pathapproachrequiressignicantoperationalcapacity
    andhighlevelsofcoordinationamongandacrossvari-
    ousministries.ThisiswheretheIinIWRMbecomes
    frameworks.However,mostdevelopingcountriesare
    stillintheprocessofmeetingthemostbasiclevelsof
    waterinfrastructuredevelopment.Thechallengefor
    thesecountrieswillbetoadoptandbalanceelements
    ofboththehardandsoftpaths,inordertomaximize
    thebenets(andminimizethecostsandrisks)ofboth
    approaches.
    Water management through infrastructure
    development
    Thehardapproachtowatermanagementtypically
    focusesontheconstructionofwaterstorage,trans-
    port,treatment,oodprotection,andotherregula-
    tionanddelivery(distributionandcollection)sys-
    tems;hydropowerplants;andgroundwaterwellsand
    pumps,consistentwiththegoalofseekingadditional
    watersupplies.Thecapacitiesofthesestructureshave
    typicallybeenbasedonhistoricalrecordsofows,
    stagesanddemandsprojectedintothefutureorfor
    somereturnperiod(frequency).Somecountriesare
    busyconstructingsuchinfrastructuretomakeuseof
    theiroften-scarcewaterresources,suchasforirriga-
    tion,domesticandindustrialuses,andsometimesfor
    environmentalpurposes.Othercountriesaredevoting
    considerableattentiontotheprotectionoftheirgrow-
    ingpopulationsfromooding,whileothersremoveor
    modifysomeoftheirhardinfrastructure,mostlytoen-
    hanceenvironmentalandecosystemservicesandtheir
    associatedbenets.
    Hardinfrastructuralmeasuresincludethehighcosts
    ofmaintaininghydrologicalxesforprolongedperi-
    odsandtheriskofdegradedperformanceovertime.
    Thesearestillrequiredbycountriesfacingeconomic
    waterscarcity(seeSection4.6),wherethesocialand
    economicbenetsofsuchmeasurescangreatlyout
    waythecosts.Moreover,thecostsofreducingthe
    unexpectednegativeimpactsofthesemeasuresmay
    behigh.Long-termplanningisthereforecritical,al-
    thoughfraughtwithuncertainties.Increasingempha-
    sisonstakeholderparticipationisdesignedtobalance
    trade-ofsbetweenimpactsonecologicalsystems
    andpotentialbenets.Whilethisismoredemocratic,
    itplacesgreaterdemandsonpoliticalleadershipand
    governancestructures,andcansometimesdelaypro-
    jectimplementation,soitisnotwithoutrisk.
    Althoughwaterdemandmanagementcansubstantial-
    lyreducewaterneedsandwillalwaysremainacentral
    componenttosoundmanagement(seeChapter11),
    thereisstillasubstantialrequirementforincreased
    WWDR4 WATERMANAGEMENT,INSTITUTIONSANDCAPACITYDEVELOPMENT
    138
    canusuallybemodiedorendedwithoutsubstantial
    extrainvestments.Thisexibilityisbenecial,butwill
    placeincreasingdemandsonpoliticalleadershipand
    themanagementoftrade-ofsbetweencompetingin-
    terestgroups.
    5.1.2Integratedwaterresourcesmanagement
    IWRMisdenedasaprocessthatpromotesthecoor-
    dinateddevelopmentandmanagementofwater,land
    andrelatedresourcesinordertomaximizetheresult-
    anteconomicandsocialwelfareinanequitableman-
    nerwithoutcompromisingthesustainabilityofvital
    ecosystems(GWP-TAC,2000,p.22).IWRMrecog-
    nizestheinterdependenciesofmultiplecomponents
    ofaregionalwaterresourcesystem:highirrigation
    demandsandpolluteddrainageowsfromagricul-
    turemeanlessfreshwaterfordrinkingorindustrialuse;
    contaminatedmunicipalandindustrialwastewaterpol-
    lutesriversandthreatensecosystems;theslow-onset
    disasterofuncontrolleddecantingofacidicwaterfrom
    abandonedmines;andifwaterhastobeleftinariver
    toprotectsheriesandecosystems,lesscanbedivert-
    edtogrowcrops.
    IWRMimpliesthatallthediferentusesofwaterre-
    sourcesareconsideredtogether.Waterallocationand
    managementdecisionsshouldconsidertheefectsof
    eachuseontheother,thustakingintoaccountoverall
    socialandeconomicgoals,includingtheachievement
    ofsustainabledevelopmenttargets,healthandsafety.
    Thisalsomeansensuringcoherentpolicy-makingrelat-
    edtoallsectors,mostnotablybetweendecision-mak-
    ersconcernedwithnationalwatersecurity,national
    foodsecurityandnationalenergysecurity.Competing
    usergroups(farmers,communities,environmentalists,
    etc.)caninuencestrategiesforwaterresourcedevel-
    opmentandmanagement,withtheresultthatthepro-
    cessbecomesmorepoliticalandlesspurelytechnical
    asintegrationoccursandapotentialbasketofbenets
    emerges(Phillipsetal.,2006,2008).Thatbringsaddi-
    tionalbenets,asinformeduserscanoftenapplylocal
    self-regulationinrelationtoissuessuchaswatercon-
    servationandcatchmentprotection(GWP-TAC,2000).
    Integratedmanagementcontrastswiththesectoral
    approachwhereresponsibilityfordrinkingwaterrests
    withoneagency,forirrigationwaterwithanother,for
    energyandminewaterelsewhereandfortheenviron-
    mentwithyetanother.Lackofcross-sectorallinkages
    mayleadtouncoordinatedwaterresourcedevelop-
    mentandmanagementthatmayresultinchaos,con-
    ictandwasteofresources(CapNet,GWPandUNDP,
    ofincreasedimportance.Experienceoverthepasthalf
    centuryhasdemonstratedthatsoftoptionspresent
    considerablepotentialforaddressingwaterresource
    issues,butareincreasinglycomplexbecauseofthe
    needtointegrateacrossarangeofpreviouslyunco-
    ordinatedactors.Meaningfulstakeholderengagement
    andparticipationislikelytogrowinsignicancewhen
    developingsuchmeasures,placingnewdemandson
    institutionsandpoliticalleadership.
    Solutionsthatembracearangeofsofterapproaches
    willmakeuseofforecastingandmodellingadvances
    tofacilitatemoreaccurateriskassessment,thereby
    workingtoincreasetheresilienceanddecreasethe
    vulnerabilityofwatersystems,whilealsoworking
    acrossandbeyondthetraditionalrangeofwaterre-
    sourcemanagementtoincludeout-of-the-boxac-
    tors.Thiscanprovideusefulinformationtothosewater
    usersandstakeholdersimpactedbywaterresources
    managementbutcurrentlynotserviced,suchasstock-
    brokersandinstitutionalinvestorsconcernedabout
    undeclaredbutembeddedrisk(ACCA,2009;Chang,
    2009;KlopandWellington,2008).
    Thepublicisofteninsufcientlyinformedtocompre-
    hendhowitsuseofexistingwaterresourcescanafect
    eitherthequantityorqualityoftheseresources.As
    aresult,thepublicisnotalwaysunawareofwaysby
    whichitmightcontributetosolvingtherelevantprob-
    lems.Properpubliceducationandawarenesscanhelp
    engagewaterstakeholdersinneededactions,particu-
    larlywithregardtoreducingwaterdemandsandpol-
    lution,anditalsoputspressureongovernmentsand
    otherdecision-makers.Atthesametime,sustainable
    andequitablechangerequireswatermanagerstoun-
    derstandtheissuesandperspectivesoftheusersand
    communityattheinitialstageofimplementation,pay-
    ingattentiontotheirideasandfacilitatinginstitution-
    building.Byidentifyingdiferencesinpowerrelations
    andrecognizingwomensneedsandpotentialcontri-
    butions,realchangecanbemadeinthefunctioningof
    watersystems,livelihoodsandfoodsecurity.Inreturn,
    thepubliccanexertpressure,whichcanresultingov-
    ernmentagenciesandotherusersandstakeholders
    reningtheirwater-usepoliciesandprogrammes.
    Implementingnon-structuralmanagementoptions
    usuallyrequiresstrongoperationalcapacitybutlimited
    investmentsthatareoftenspreadovertime.Moreover,
    whennon-structuralinterventionsdonotleadtothe
    intendedgoals,contrarytostructuralmeasures,they
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER5
    139
    constructionandoperationandmaintenanceproce-
    dures.Integrationisgenerallyachievedincrementally
    inastep-wiseprocessthatcanbedrawnout.Inpartic-
    ular,dialoguebetweenstakeholdersfacilitatesintegra-
    tion,whichisitselfshapedbythecontext.
    Theseprocesses,aswellasdialoguebetweenstake-
    holders,canalsohelptoaddressbroaderissuesofco-
    ordinationandintegrationoutsidetherealmofIWRM,
    whicharisewhenwaterresources,useandmanage-
    mentareimpactedbyactionstakenbydecision-mak-
    ersinother,non-watersectorsforotherobjectives,as
    establishedbytheWWDR3(WWAP,2009).
    5.1.3Waterresourcemanagementunderuncertain
    demands
    Hydro-climatologicinformationaboutfrequencies,
    magnitude,durationandincidenceofprecipitation
    andrunofeventsoughttobethebasicinputsinto
    mostwatermanagementdecisions.Theyhavebeen
    combinedwithmorefundamentaleconomic,environ-
    mentalandsocio-economicinformationandobjectives
    tobetterinformwatermanagementdecisions.Land
    useregulations,economicpriorities,tradepoliciesand
    costbenetcriteriaareamongotherinputsusedto
    decidebetweenwatermanagementoptions(Stakhiv
    andSteward,2009).Inallofthis,watermanage-
    mentnowhastoaccountforunforeseeablechanges
    inthenatureandtimingofpopulationgrowth,migra-
    tion,globalization,changingconsumptionpatterns,
    technologicaladvancesandagriculturalandindustrial
    2005)andanunsustainableoverallpicturewherecom-
    ponentsvieforsuboptimalsolutionsatbest.
    TheessentialpurposeofIWRMistomanagewater
    moreefcientlyandefectively.IWRMentailstheco-
    ordinationofpolicies,institutions,regulatoryframe-
    worksplanning,operations,maintenanceanddesign
    standardsofnumerousagenciesanddepartments
    responsibleforoneormoreaspectsofwaterandre-
    latednaturalresourcesmanagement(Stakhivand
    Pietrowsky,2009,pp.45).Multi-disciplinaryandmul-
    ti-agencycoordinationandcooperationisthereforean
    importantfeatureofIWRM.
    ThiseditionoftheWorld Water Development Report
    providesanupdateonthecommitmenttoIWRM
    madebytheinternationalcommunityandcountries
    (seeSection1.3.3).Itstatesthatwhileimportantdevel-
    opmentshavebeenmadearoundtheworld,theprep-
    arationbygovernmentsofnationalIWRMplansand
    theactualimplementationratesoftheseplansremain
    unsatisfactoryandwellbehindtargets.Waterman-
    agementcanworkefectively(butnotnecessarilyef-
    ciently)infragmentedinstitutionalsystems(suchas
    thefederallybasedsystemsofAustralia,Brazilandthe
    UnitedStatesofAmerica),wherethereisahighde-
    greeofdecision-makingtransparency,publicparticipa-
    tion,andadequatenancialsupportforplanningand
    implementation.Itdoesnotworkwellinmostother
    caseswheretheseprerequisitesdonotexist.Setting
    uptheproperinstitutionalframeworkistherststep
    towardIWRM(seeSection11.2).
    OneofthegoalsofIWRMistoreconcileeconomic
    developmentandecosystemmaintenance.Thisisa
    challengebecauseeconomicdevelopmentgoalsand
    environmentalneedsareassociatedwithdiferent
    temporalscales,andbothhavebeenbasedontradi-
    tionalwatermanagementconceptsthatdonotalways
    considertheunexpectedrisksanduncertaintiesas-
    sociatedwiththesofterapproaches.Forthisreason,
    ecosystemgoodsandservicesandtheirvaluationare
    increasinglyincludedinIWRMplanning.However,they
    canalsoconstituteamajorsourceofuncertaintyfora
    varietyofreasons.
    Workableandsustainablesolutionsinwatermanage-
    mentareachievedthroughintegration:betweenland
    andwatermanagement;betweenthemanagementof
    diferenturbanwatersystems;betweenthewaterand
    energy,miningandagriculturalsectors;andbetween
    WWDR4 WATERMANAGEMENT,INSTITUTIONSANDCAPACITYDEVELOPMENT
    The public is often
    insufciently informed
    to comprehend how
    its use of existing
    water resources can
    afect either the
    quantity or the quality
    of these resources.
    140
    Societyingeneral,andtheengineeringprofessionin
    particular,throughahistoricalaccumulationofex-
    perience,laws,engineeringpracticesandregulations,
    hasdenedanarroweracceptablerangeofex-
    pectedeventstowhichitchoosestoadapthence,
    thereisthe100-yearoodplainforoodinsurance
    purposes;criteriaforthedesignofurbandrainage
    systemsforsmallerbutmorefrequentevents;and
    damsafetyconsiderationsbydesigningspillwaysfor
    verylow-probabilityoods,forexamplea10,000-
    yearreturnperiod.Thesearesocietaljudgments
    madeonthebasisofmanyfactors,includingaford-
    ability,relativepopulationvulnerability,andnational
    andregionaleconomicbenets.Theyarenotdeter-
    ministiccriteriamadeonthebasisofempiricalor
    simulationmodelling.Deningsocialrisktolerance
    andservicereliabilityispartofasocialcontractto
    bedeterminedthroughthepoliticalprocesscoupled
    withpublicparticipation(StakhivandPietrowsky,
    2009,p.8),whichconstitutesanelementofuncer-
    taintyintheSoftPathApproach.
    Discounting,amethodusedtocompressastreamof
    futurecostsandbenetsintoasinglepresentvalue
    amount,isanimportantconcept,becauseitcanhave
    amajorefectontheoutcomeofthecostbenetcal-
    culation.Ahighdiscountratewillfavouravoidingthe
    costsofadaptationnow,whereasalowdiscountfac-
    torencouragesimmediateaction.Settingthediscount
    rateisthereforebasicallydeningthesocialwelfare
    functionacrossgenerationswithsubstantialimplica-
    tionsforthedecisionstaken.Todealwithalltheun-
    certainties,scenariosaredevelopedthatdescribepos-
    siblefutures,dependingon,amongothers,decisions
    basedonsocietalvalues.Basedonthescenarios,mod-
    elshelptopredicttheefectsofthesepossiblefutures
    forhydrologicalconditionsandhelptoidentifyvulner-
    abilitiesthatwatermanagementmeasureswouldhelp
    solve(UNECE,2009).
    5.1.4Adaptivemanagement
    Thecomplexityofwatermanagement,combinedwith
    increaseduncertainty,boththroughsocio-economic
    developmentsandclimatechange,makesthetradi-
    tionalcommand-and-controlapproachlessefective.
    AnadaptiveapproachtowardsIWRMrespondstothis.
    Adaptivemanagementcangenerallybedenedasa
    systematicprocessforimprovingmanagementpoli-
    ciesandpracticesbylearningfromtheoutcomesof
    managementstrategiesthathavealreadybeenim-
    plemented(Pahl-Wostletal.,2007).Itisacontinuous
    developments.Theseissueswerealreadypresent,but
    wereforthemostpartneglected.Theloomingspec-
    treofclimatechangehashelpedtodrawattentionto
    theirimportance,addinganewdimensiontotheever-
    increasingcomplexityarisingfromthedriversmen-
    tionedabove.
    Astheassumptionsemanatingfromstable-state
    systemsarenolongerappropriate,oneofthecur-
    rentchallengesinvolvesdeterminingthecapacitiesof
    newinfrastructuralcomponentsforawaterresource
    systemwhosefutureinputsordesignowscanno
    longerbepredictedorcalculatedfromthehistorical
    record.Underconditionsofuncertaintyitisnolonger
    possibletousetodaysscience,basedonyesterdays
    experience,topredicttheneedsofthefuture(Turton,
    2007).Thechallengeofpredictingdemandsduring
    aneraofacceleratedchangesaddstothecomplex-
    ity.Driversofwateralsointeractamongthemselves
    (seeChapter9),whichcreatesanewsetofuncer-
    taintiesandassociatedrisks,aswellasadiverseand
    complexvarietyofcombinationsandpossiblepaths.
    Thismaywellbebeyondtheunderstandingofthose
    dealingwithvariousmanagementchallenges.For
    example,land-usechangeandurbanization,already
    resultinginpollution,thesealingofsurfacesanda
    lossofforestsandwetlandscausesincreasedrunof,
    resultinginahigherriskofooding,sedimentation
    andeutrophication.Demographicchanges,includ-
    ingpopulationgrowthandchangesinconsumption
    patternsandmigration,frequentlyleadtoincreasing
    demandsforwaterandfood.Thegrowingpressures
    onwateroftenconcentrateincoastalareas,where
    climatechangeisexpectedtohavethehighestim-
    pact.Theseareasarealreadyunderhighwaterstress
    andincreasedpressureoftenresultsinthesaliniza-
    tionofgroundwaterwhererisingwaterinthesoil
    bringsdilutedsaltstothesurface,whicharenotfully
    ushedaway(WWAP,2009).Growingenergycon-
    sumptionincreasinglyimpactsonwater,throughbio-
    fuelproductionthatrequiressignicantamountsof
    water;thermalpowerplantsthatneedhugeamounts
    ofwaterforcooling,addingtothewatertemperature
    increasecausedbyclimatechange;andbiodiversity
    andwaterchemistryarisingfromtheacidication
    ofrainduetothesulphurcycle.Finally,thestateof
    infrastructuresuchasdamsandirrigationsystems
    can,ifinadequate,leadtomajorrisksofwaterwaste,
    whichexacerbatewaterstress,aswellastoincreased
    risksofmajoraccidents.Bothsetsofriskscanaggra-
    vateclimatechangeimpacts(UNECE,2009).
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER5
    141
    Implementationoftheserecommendationsishighly
    demanding,andrequiresthatmanagersovercome
    theinertiaoftraditionalapproachesandresistance
    fromvariousactors.Themajorchallengeforauthori-
    tativeregulatorybodiesatlocalandnationallevels,
    however,istodevelopacoordinatedvisionofhowto
    implementtheideas,aswellasthecouragetowith-
    standcriticismandtosharepowerwithotheractors
    (TimmermanandBernardini,2009,p.2).
    5.2Theimportanceofwaterinstitutionsfor
    sustainabledevelopment
    5.2.1Institutions:Therulesofthegame
    AccordingtotheNobeleconomiclaureateDouglass
    North,Institutionsarethehumanlydevisedcon-
    straintsthatstructurepolitical,economicandsocial
    interaction.Theyconsistofbothinformalconstraints
    (sanctions,taboos,customs,traditions,andcodesof
    conduct)andformalrules(constitutions,laws,regula-
    tions,andpropertyrights)(North,1990,p.97).
    Institutionsconstitutetherulesofthegame,den-
    ingrolesandproceduresforpeople,possessingof
    permanenceandstability,anddeterminingwhatis
    appropriate,legitimateandproper(seeChapter25).
    Theseruleshaveevolvedorganically,respondingto
    history,geography,cultureandpolitics,andreecting
    technicaladvancesandtheevolutionofprofessional
    practicesandlocalcapacity.Actorsotherthanwater
    managersoftendictatetherulesofthegameforwater.
    Inmostcases,theyareestablishedwithoutwateras
    theircentralfocusandlackrecognitionofitspivotal
    importance.
    Institutionsunderpinthemanagementofwaterre-
    sourcesandthedeliveryofkeyservicesthatsustain
    health,welfareandeconomicgrowth.Globalwater
    problemscanbetracedtoadecitofgovernance
    resultingfromalackofappropriateinstitutionsatall
    levels,andthechronicdysfunctionalityofexistingin-
    stitutionalarrangements(Lewisetal.,2005).Water
    managementinstitutionsarepartofthebroaderin-
    stitutionalframeworkofcountries(seeChapters11
    and25).Thepotencyofthisframeworkwillencour-
    ageorhinderefectiveapproachestomanaging
    waterresourcesanditsrelatedservices.Laws,poli-
    cies,privateandpublicentities,alongwithstakehold-
    ersoutsidethewaterbox,cangreatlyinuencehow
    waterinstitutionsbehaveandperformundernormal
    circumstances.
    processofadjustmentthatattemptstodealwiththe
    increasinglyrapidchangesinoursocieties,economies,
    climateandtechnologies.Inessence,adaptivewater
    managementisbasedonaseriesoffeedbackloops
    beinghard-wiredintothesystem,whichenablemany
    incrementaladjustmentstobemadebeforeacata-
    strophicproblemmanifests.Itislearningtomanageby
    managingtolearn.
    Learninginwatermanagementencompassesthe
    rangeofecological,economicandsocio-politicaldo-
    mainsintestingtheefectivenessofstructuraland
    non-structuralmeasures.Thequalityofthemanage-
    mentprocessinthisapproachisessential,including
    therealizationthatmanagementstrategiesandgoals
    mayhavetobealteredduringtheprocess(Pahl-Wostl
    etal.,2007).Successfuladaptivewatermanagement
    includessomeapproachesinadditiontooverallwater
    management(Mysiaketal,2010):
    Itbuildsoncollaborativegovernanceajointef-
    fortofgovernment,societyandsciencetoensure
    thatmeasureswillbeefectiveandsustainable.Trust
    andsocialcapitalareimportantinensuringthatthe
    problem-solvingprocesstakesplace.
    Itisembeddedinanenablingenvironment:apo-
    litical,institutionalandlegalsettingthatenables
    learninganddoesnothinderadaptiveapproaches
    (UNECE,2009).
    Itchangesfromwatersupplymanagementtowa-
    terdemandmanagement.Theavailabilityofwater
    resourcesisthebaseline,notthedemandforwater.
    Improvingefciencyofwaterusewillhelpensurea
    sustainedsupplyofwatertodiferentusesintimes
    whenresourcesbecomescarce.
    Itpaysmoreattentiontonon-structural(softer)
    watermanagementmeasures.Legalandpolicy
    agreementshelptopromotemoresustainableuse
    ofwaterinallsectorswhileexplicitlyconsideringeq-
    uityandpovertyalleviationmeasures.
    Itrecognizesadaptationinwatermanagementto
    changingconditionssuchasenergyandfoodprices,
    demographictrends,migrationows,changing
    productionandconsumptionpatterns,andclimate
    changeisalong-termcontinuousexercise,nota
    one-ofsetofmeasures.
    Itbasesthenancingofwatermanagementon
    thevaluationandpricingofwaterresourcesuse
    withoutimpactingthemostvulnerablegroupsin
    adisproportionalwaynorundulyharminglocal
    competitiveness.
    WWDR4 WATERMANAGEMENT,INSTITUTIONSANDCAPACITYDEVELOPMENT
    142
    884millionpeoplestilluseunimprovedsourcesfor
    drinkingwaterand2.6billionpeopledonotuseim-
    provedsanitation(WHO/UNICEF,2010).Measured
    againstthemorepreciseandrigorousstandardsnow
    denedundertherighttowater,theseguresrepre-
    sentasignicantunder-estimation.Someestimates
    indicatethatthenumberofpeoplewithoutaccessto
    safeandreliabletapwaterintheirhomesisbetween
    3and4billion.Thepushtoincreaseaccesstodrink-
    ingwaterandsanitationtomeettheexpectationsof
    therighttowatercouldbecomeamajordrivershap-
    ingthefuturedevelopmentofwaterservices.
    5.2.3Institutionstforpurpose
    ThesecondeditionoftheWorld Water Development
    Report(WWDR2)notedthatpooraccesstowater
    resourcesandservicesisnottheresultprincipally
    ofwatershortages,butofaninstitutionalresist-
    ancetochangeduetoalackofappropriateinstitu-
    tionsformanagingandsecuringresourcesforbuild-
    ingbothhumancapacityandphysicalinfrastructure
    (WWAP,2006).Forexample,somecountries,often
    thosewiththegreatestneed,areunabletoabsorb
    thecurrentlevelofaidforsanitationand/ordrink-
    ingwater.Thesedevelopingcountrieswillneedto
    strengthentheirnationalandsubnationalsystemsin
    ordertoplan,implementandmonitorthedelivery
    ofsanitationanddrinkingwaterservices,especially
    forunderservedpopulations(WHO/UN-Water,2010).
    TheWHO/UN-WaterGLAAS(2010)documentre-
    portsthatdeningappropriateinstitutionalrolesand
    responsibilitiesremainsachallengeforbothsanita-
    tionanddrinkingwater.Evenwherenationalstrate-
    giesarewelldeveloped,governmentinstitutionsare
    wellcoordinatedandadequatenancingisavailable,
    progressinsanitationanddrinkingwatermaystill
    belimitedbythelackofadequatelytrained,capable
    stafandaworkenvironmentconducivetoefective
    outputs(WHO/UN-Water,2010).TheWWDR2re-
    ferredtoconfusioninwatergovernanceinmanyde-
    velopingcountries,citingalackofwaterinstitutions
    andadisplayoffragmentedinstitutionalstructures
    asissuesrequiringimmediateattention.GLAAS2010
    recommendsthatsoundpolicies,alliedtoefective
    institutions,areimportantforoptimizingservicede-
    livery.Establishingclearrolesandresponsibilitiesfor
    thediferentinstitutionsinvolvedinsanitationand
    drinkingwaterisalsoimportant,ifgoodprogressis
    tobemade(WHO/UN-Water,2010,p.2).
    5.2.2Whatinstitutionsdo,andwhytheymatter
    Water-relatedinstitutionsfunctionatdiferentscales
    rangingfromthelocalcommunitytothetransnational
    level,andoverseetheallocation,distribution,man-
    agement,planning,protectionandregulationofwater
    resourcesandservices.Institutionsdenerolesand
    procedures,whichdeterminewhatisappropriate,le-
    gitimateandproper(seeChapter25).Inaddition,tra-
    ditionalandcontemporarysocialrulesmaybeapplied
    towateruseandmanagement.
    Informalwaterrightssystemsarenotjustcustomary,
    traditionalorancient.Onthecontrary,theycanform
    adynamicmixofrules,principlesandorganizational
    formsthatarehighlyrelevanttocontemporaryprob-
    lems.Theycombinelocal,nationalandglobalrules,
    andoftenmixindigenous,colonialandcontemporary
    normsandrights.Localwaterrightsexistincondi-
    tionsoflegalpluralismwhererulesandprinciplesof
    diferentoriginandlegitimizationco-existandinteract
    (Boelens,2008).
    Aajirrigationsystems,widespreadinmanyMiddle
    Easterncountries,areanexampleofonesuchinformal
    systemforallocatingwater.
    1
    Clientelism
    2
    orevencor-
    ruptioncanalsobeviewedasmethodsfordetermining
    theallocationofwaterresourcesandservicesamong
    diferentsectorsandgroups.Informalsystemscan
    sometimesbeassimilatedintotheformaleconomy,as
    inParaguay,wheresmallinformalprivatedrinkingwater
    supplysystemshavebeenrecognizedandagreements
    developedbetweenlocalgovernmentsandsmall-scale
    privatewatervendors.Theoutcomehasbeeneasier
    controlandmonitoringofthepricingandqualityofser-
    vice(PhumpiuandGustafsson,2008).
    In2010,resolutionsbytheUnitedNationsGeneral
    AssemblyandtheHumanRightsCouncilconrmed
    thataccesstosafewaterandsanitationisahuman
    right(seeSection1.2.4).Memberstatesarerequired
    toensuretheprogressiveimplementationoftheright
    towaterandsanitationtoeverybodyintheirjuris-
    diction.Itishopedthatthiswillcontributetoaccel-
    eratingmuch-neededprogressinprovidingthese
    essentialservicestobillionsofpeoplewhodonot
    currentlyenjoythem.Accordingtothemeasure-
    mentsandstandardsoftheMillenniumDevelopment
    Goals(MDGs),thereportsoftheWHO/UNICEFJoint
    MonitoringProgramme(JMP)forWaterSupplyand
    Sanitation,andtheGlobalAnnualAssessmentof
    SanitationandDrinking-Water(GLAAS)processes,
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER5
    143
    participationandaccountability.Irrespectiveoftheir
    type,institutionsgovernsimilarissuesofresourc-
    esallocation,qualityprotection,planningandsoon.
    Allocationisbecomingawidespreadissue,particularly
    incountriessuchasthoseintheMiddleEast,which
    havealreadydevelopedeasilyaccessiblewater,and
    whereadditionalwaterprovisionwillcomeatahigh
    cost.Currently,manycountriesintheregionareusing
    upto90%oftheirwaterforirrigation,whereasagri-
    cultureiscontributinglessandlesstoGDP,andmore
    economicallyvibrantsectorsoftenfaceseverewater
    constraints(Beaumont,2005).
    Efectiveinstitutionscanreducenatural,economic,
    technicalandsocialuncertainties.Forexample,the
    successfulnegotiationoftensionsandconictsover
    sharedwaterswillreduceuncertaintiesforthepar-
    tiesconcernedandleadtomorerationalwateruse
    andallocation.Efectivewaterinstitutionsfullseveral
    purposes:
    Dene roles, rights and responsibilities at diferent
    scales.Institutionalarrangementsdenewhocontrols
    Arecentbusinesssurveyinwhichrmschosebe-
    tweendiferenttypesofpossibleconstraintsondo-
    ingbusinessinthecountryconcernedshowedthe
    constraintsimposedbyprevalentinstitutionalsystems
    (Figure5.1).Institutionalandgovernance-relatedissues
    suchasbureaucraticperformanceandcorruptioncon-
    trolappeartorankhigherthanqualityofinfrastructure
    inregionslikesub-SaharanAfricaandSouthAsia.
    3
    The
    implicationisthatinvestmentinwaterdevelopment
    requiresacombinationofsoftandhardmeasures,
    withprioritybeinggiventoinstitutionalreformwith
    emphasisongoodgovernance,efectiveregulation,
    strongoperationalcapacityandcontrolofcorruption
    inmanycases.
    Countriesshowgreatvariationininstitutionaldesign.
    Insomecountriesandregions,forexampleChina,the
    MiddleEastandNorthAfrica,waterinstitutionsreect
    stronggovernmentsteering,top-downmanagement
    andhierarchicalcontrol.Elsewhere,agreaterdifu-
    sionofpowerscanbefoundamonggovernment,civil
    societyandmarkets,withvaryinglevelsofemphasis
    onfeaturessuchastransparency,multi-stakeholder
    WWDR4 WATERMANAGEMENT,INSTITUTIONSANDCAPACITYDEVELOPMENT
    FIGURE 5.1
    Keyconstraintstodoingbusinessinseveralgeographicandeconomicregions
    Note: The question posed to the rm was Select among the above 14 constraints the ve most problematic factors for doing business in your
    country.
    Source: Kaufmann (2005, g. 2, p. 85).
    Infrastructure Bureaucracy Corruption Taxregulations
    0
    10
    20
    30
    40
    50
    60
    EastAsia
    developing
    Sub-Saharan
    Africa
    Transition Latin
    America
    Firmsreportingconstraintamongtopthree(%)
    OECD EastAsia
    NICs
    South
    Asia
    144
    withnooveralluniedsystemofmanagementorgov-
    ernance.Evenifsomecoherencecouldbebroughtinto
    watermanagementinwhateversensethistermis
    used(e.g.fromapplyingtheIWRMparadigm)impor-
    tantinuencesonwaterwouldcontinuetobeexerted
    fromforcesoutsidethebox,suchasnationalpolicies
    onregionaldevelopment,internationaltrade,tourism,
    housing,energy,agricultureandfoodsecurity,environ-
    mentalprotectionandsoon.Duetothesecomplexi-
    ties,itisdifcultforwaterinstitutionstoadapttocur-
    rentandfuturerisksanduncertainties,andtodevelop
    anykindofconsistentapproach.
    Thediversestructureofwatermanagementindealing
    withvariousresourceanduse/service-relatedissues
    isreectedinthecomplexityandfragmentationof
    theinstitutionsthatexisttogovernandmanageit.It
    israretondaministryofwater(asinBolivia,India
    orTanzania)dealingwithallaspectsofthesector.It
    ismorecommontohaveseparateministriesresponsi-
    bleforwaterresources,irrigation,environment,power,
    transport,health,urbanwatersupply,ruralwater,and
    soon.Eachofthesesubjectareasimpingesonwater,
    yeteachtypicallyhasseparateministerialresponsibil-
    ityandadministrativestructures,withnancingusually
    determinedindependentlyofotherinterestedparties.
    Therulesofthegameforwatermanagementareset
    inadifuseinstitutionalenvironment,whereimminent
    decisionstobetakeninresponsetoclimatechange
    orenvironmentalsustainabilityareheavilyinuenced
    bythespecicneedsofothersectors,withwatera
    secondaryconsideration.Makingcoherentdecisions
    onsuchmomentousissues,withthevarioustrade-
    ofstheyimply,willcallforsomeinstitutionalmachin-
    erylinkingdecision-makersinkeysectorswiththose
    responsibleforwatermanagement.Awidergroupof
    stakeholdersneedstobeinvolvedintherule-setting
    process(Figure10.2).
    Whilesomecountrieshavemadeprogresstowardef-
    fectivewatergovernance,thesuccessofinstitutional
    reformhasbeenmixed:manycountrieshavenotover-
    cometheirshortcomingsingovernance,nancialand
    capacityareas.Forexample,reformsinGhana,India
    andSouthAfricacameaspartofawidermovetoeco-
    nomicreform,buthavenotbeenuniformlysuccessful.
    Somecommonfeaturesofinstitutionalreformsare
    theadoptionofanIWRMframework,includingwa-
    terresourcesplanning,theestablishmentofriver
    theresourceandtheextentofapropertyregime
    (Ananda,etal.,2006).Institutionsplayavitalrolein
    establishingtheworkingrulesofrightsandduties,
    andinxingtherelationshipsofmultipleorco-users
    tooneanotherandtoaspecicnaturalresource.In
    Kenya,therecentwatersectorreformshaveclear-
    lydelineatedtheinstitutionalarrangementsforthe
    rolesandresponsibilitiesofagenciesinvolvedboth
    inservicedeliveryandwaterbasinmanagement.The
    reformshave,forexample,encouragedasector-wide
    approachtoplanning(SWAp),
    4
    whichpromotesgood
    practiceforpartnerships,conduct,investmentplan-
    ning,coordination,monitoringanddecision-making
    allaimedatimprovedservicedeliveryandaccount-
    abilitywithinandamongsectors.
    Determine restrictions and provide for mediation of
    conicts. Institutionssetcertainindividualandcollec-
    tiverestrictionstowateruse:whocanusewhatwater,
    howmuch,whenandforwhatpurposes.Awiden-
    inggapbetweenwatersupplyanddemandintensi-
    escompetitionandconictsbetweenwaterusers,
    regionsandeconomicsectors.Thisputspressureon
    institutionsdealingwithresourceallocationandman-
    agement,andheightenstheimportanceofmecha-
    nismswhichdealwithconictingintereststhrough
    economicincentives.TheMekongRiverBasinillus-
    tratesthecomplexrelationsbetweenstatesandrivalry
    amongwaterinstitutions.Transboundarywatercon-
    ictshavegenerallybeencontainedinthisbasin,but
    thegrowthofwaterscarcityduetoenvironmentaland
    developmentalfactorscouldleadtomajorconictsin
    thefuture,drivingthereformofregulatoryandalloca-
    tionmechanisms.Insomeinstances,waterconicts
    haveacceleratedinstitutionalchange.
    Reduce transaction costs and stimulate investments.
    Institutionsunderpinincreasedandmoreefectivein-
    vestments.Poorinstitutionsposeincreasedinvestment
    riskandafectthecompetitivenessofcountriesand
    theperformanceoftheirrms.Efectiveinstitutions
    lowertransactionscosts,namelythevariouscostsin-
    curredinmakinganeconomicexchangeandtaking
    partinamarketcostssuchasthoseforsearchand
    information,bargaininganddecision-making,andpo-
    licingandenforcement.
    5.2.4Waterinstitutions:Currentstatusandfuture
    challenges
    Waterencompassesawiderangeofsectorsanduses
    throughoutitsnaturalcycle,atdiferentscales,and
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER5
    145
    poorgovernance,whichdistortsinvestment,increases
    transactionscostsanddiscouragesinnovation.Petty
    corruptionhasaparticularimpactonthepoorand
    disempowered.Thiscallsfor,amongotherthings,the
    enforcementofregulationsontheperformanceand
    expenditureofserviceproviders.Inmostdevelop-
    ingcountries,suchregulationiseitherweakorabsent.
    Existingsystemsofmonitoring,policing,sanctionsand
    incentivesarenotappliedonasystematicbasisand
    areoftenderailedduetoclientelismandcorruption
    (Box5.2).
    Capacity development and resources.Thedelegation
    ofresponsibilitytolocalwateragenciesshouldbeac-
    complishedbycorrespondingtransferofpowers,tools
    andresourcesinshort,capacity.Anydelegation
    shouldbebasedoncarefulanalysistohelpdetermine
    theappropriatelevelfordecentralizationorcentraliza-
    tion,inaccordancewithtechnicalconsiderationsand
    economiesofscaleandscope.Becauseofthelowpro-
    leandunfashionablecharacterofwatermanagement
    andserviceagencies,theirgraduallossofresources
    andcapacityhasgonelargelyunnoticed.Thistrend
    needsreversingiftheagenciesinquestionaretoad-
    dressthefar-reachingchangesrequired.
    basinmanagementauthorities,theencouragementof
    multi-stakeholderengagement,andtheuseofcost-
    efectiveness,costrecoveryandcostbenetanaly-
    sistodetermineinvestmentpriorities.Rights-based
    approachestowaterservicesandtheinclusionof
    integrityandaccountabilitycriteriaareotherrecent
    developments.
    Thesubjectmatterofwatermanagementandpolicy-
    settingiscontinuouslybeingredenedduetocultural,
    economic,political,socialandenvironmentalchanges.
    Theseshiftingforcesposevariouschallengesforinsti-
    tutionalreform,someofwhicharedetailedhere:
    Integration. Theinstitutionsgoverningwaterinits
    manyfacetsneedtobesufcientlycomprehensive,
    andthepoliciesforwatermanagementneedtobe
    coherentenough,todealefectivelywithlooming
    problems.Acaseinpointisclimatechange,whichisa
    majorcurrentdriverofinstitutionalchange.Waterwill
    beaprimarymediumthroughwhichclimatechange
    impactswillbeexperiencedbyvarioussectors,and
    thewaytheprocessismanagedwillshapesustainable
    developmentandpovertyreductioneforts.Changes
    inwateravailabilityanddemandwillworsenexist-
    ingstressesinsectorssuchashealth,foodproduc-
    tion,sustainableenergyandbiodiversity,whilewa-
    ter-relatedrisksduetoextremeevents,suchasash
    oods,stormsurgeandlandslides,aresettoincrease.
    Efectiveinstitutionsmustthereforebeabletoac-
    commodatethere-allocationofwaterinresponseto
    changesinitsavailability.Theinstitutionalresponse
    shouldincludepromotionofcost-efectiveconser-
    vationmeasuresandefciencyenhancementsunder
    efectivewaterdemandmanagementpractices.The
    strengtheningoflocalinstitutionsandstrengtheningof
    socialnetworksisanintegralpartofsuccessfuladap-
    tation(Box5.1).
    Institutionsshouldbesufcientlyexibleandadapt-
    abletoaccountforuncertaintiesinbothwatersup-
    plyanddemand.Adegreeofformalrecognitionand
    assimilationmightbejustiedinthecaseofinformal
    waterserviceproviders,whotypicallydealwithmar-
    ginalizedwateruserswhoseneedsarenotmetbyes-
    tablishedformalsupplynetworks.
    Integrity, transparency and accountability. Attempts
    totacklemismanagement,corruption,bureaucratic
    inertiaandredtapecanproveamajorstimulusfor
    institutionalchange.Corruptionisacoresymptomof
    WWDR4 WATERMANAGEMENT,INSTITUTIONSANDCAPACITYDEVELOPMENT
    Source: ICIMOD (2009); see also Chapter 25.
    BOX 5.1
    AdaptationtowaterstressintheGreater
    HimalayanRegion
    FivecasestudiesfromtheGreaterHimalayanRegion
    lookedatsituationswherepeoplearerespondingtotoo
    muchwater(oods,waterlogging)ortotoolittlewater
    (drought,waterstress).Theregionsexaminedwerethe
    drymountainvalleysofChitralinPakistan;themiddlehills
    inNepal;theoodplainsofBihar,IndiaintheKoshibasin;
    theoodplainsofBrahmaputrainAssaminIndia;andthe
    hillareasofYunnan,China.
    Someofthekeyndingsforadaptationcomprisedamix
    ofstrategiestodevelopdiversicationoflivelihoodsand
    tomakeuseofandstrengthenlocalinstitutionsandsocial
    networks.Culturalnormsandrulesafectpeoplesadap-
    tivebehaviour,andneedtobeconsidered,buttheyare
    dynamicandcanshiftovertimeinresponsetodiferent
    needs.Inaddition,itwasacknowledgedthatnationalin-
    stitutionsandpoliciesstronglyafectpeoplesabilityto
    adaptatthelocallevel,butthenationallevelisrarelyin-
    formedbyadaptationconcernsandpriorities.
    146
    BOX 5.2
    DevelopmentofregulatoryaccountinginLatin
    America
    Manipulationofaccountingisaseriousconcerninthe
    regulationofpublicutilitiesandregulatorsusuallydevote
    considerableattentiontothemethodsofaccountingused
    bytheutilitiestheyregulate.Ingeneral,aregulatorcan-
    notdoanefectivejobifitdoesnothavetheauthorityto
    denetheaccountingsystemsunderitsjurisdiction.When
    waterutilitieswereopeneduptoprivateinvestmentin
    the1990sinArgentina,itbecamenecessarytodevelop
    aregulatoryframeworkthatwouldinducethemtowork
    towardstheobjectivessetforthbytheState.TheAguas
    Argentinassystemwasoneoftherstexperiencesofreg-
    ulatoryaccountingforwaterandsanitationservicepro-
    vidersintheregion.Thefollowinglessonswerelearned
    aboutimplementingthisefectiveregulatorytool:
    1otheextentpossibletheprojectshouldbeap-
    proachedasajointundertakingbetweentheregulator
    andtheregulatedentity,withdedicated,multidiscipli-
    naryteamsonbothends.
    Contributorstotheprojectshouldbebroughtonboard
    asearlyaspossible,includingtechnical,operational,
    commercial,administrativeandinformationtechnology
    personneltoensureefectivecollaborationandsupport.
    ltshouldbeunderstoodthatthemodifcationstoinfor-
    mationsystemsandproceduresinvolvedintheimple-
    mentationofregulatoryaccountingtakeplaceinlarge,
    existingcompanies,whichlimitdiscretionalauthorityand
    canincreasethetimeittakestoimplementchanges.
    lnordertoforeseeunintendedconsequencesandhave
    timetomakeanynecessaryadjustments,thepossible
    efectsoftheprojectontheworkcultureinboththe
    utilitycompanyandtheregulatoryagencyshouldbe
    takenintoaccount.
    Experiencebothathomeandabroadindicatesthat
    informationasymmetryisalsopresentintheregula-
    tionandoversightofpubliclyownedserviceproviders.
    Accordingly,oncetheAguasArgentinascontractwasre-
    vokedin2006andservicesweretransferredtothelargely
    state-ownedAguaySaneamientosArgentinos(AySA)in
    2006,thenewregulatoryframeworkstipulatedthatthe
    publiccompanyalsohadtoimplementaregulatoryac-
    countingsystem.
    existingfundingmoreefciently.Mostwaterfunding
    goestoinfrastructuredevelopmentandlessisin-
    vestedinoperationsandmaintenanceanddeveloping
    institutionsandhumancapacities.Ofthe11reporting
    countriesinthe20092010CSOandGLAAScountry
    surveys,thecontributionofrecurrentexpenses,includ-
    ingsalaries,non-salariesandurbansubsidies,tototal
    expendituresforsanitationanddrinkingwaterranged
    anywherefrom13%to78%(notethatonlyinternal
    sourcesofnancingforgovernmentexpenditureare
    included)(WHO/UN-Water,2010).Bothpublicandpri-
    vatesectorfundingshouldbeenhanced,ifnecessary,
    throughinnovativefundingapproaches.
    Conventionalwaterplanningistoorigidtomeetthe
    challengesahead,whichrequirethedevelopmentof
    adaptivegovernanceframeworksandinstitutions.Calls
    havebeenmadeformoreresilientinstitutionsandap-
    proaches(GWP,2009).Infact,theinstitutionsthat
    governthemanagementanduseofwaterarenotim-
    mutable,andhavethecapacitytochangeinresponse
    tocircumstances,particularlycrises.Manyreformsare
    bornoutofconict(Box5.3)
    Institutionalreformsmayimposetransitionalcostsof
    theirown,ofsettingsomeoftheirexpectedbenets.
    InKenya,forexample,somestakeholdersseeinstitu-
    tionalchangessuchastheintroductionofsector-wide
    approachtoplanning(SWAP)aspotentiallyincreas-
    ingbureaucracyandcomplexityandremovingdeci-
    sion-makingfurtherfromthegrassrootslevel.Thereis
    someconcernregardingthepotentialfortransaction
    coststorisewithSWAP,andsomenon-governmental
    organizations(NGOs)fearthatSWAPmayreducetheir
    fundinglevels.Theseinstitutionalreformsmayrequire
    higherlevelsoftransparencyandhighergovernment-
    monitoringcapacity,bothweakpointsinthesectorat
    present.
    Institutionsthatdevelopinthewatersectorinevitably
    reectthoseinwidersociety.Theprivatizationofwater
    assetsinEnglandandWales,andChile,andthegrowth
    ofmarketsforwaterinthelatter,developedwithina
    politicalandlegalcontextfavourabletothetransferof
    assetsintoprivatemanagementandownership.The
    activeuseofwatertarifs,andtheuseofwatermar-
    ketsforallocatingscarcesupplies,islikelytobemore
    feasibleineconomieswithwidespreadinvolvementof
    privateproducers,thanincountrieswithastrongstat-
    isttradition.Theprecisebalanceofpublicandprivate
    agenciesinthemanagementanddeliveryofwater
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER5
    Sources: Jouravlev (2004) and Lentini (2009a,b).
    Generating adequate and sustainable funding.Many
    waterinstitutionsindevelopingcountriesareweak
    andunder-nanced(DinarandSaleth,2005).New
    fundingisrequiredforinstitutionalcapacity-build-
    ingandadaptation,butitisequallyimportanttouse
    147
    andinfrastructuremaintenance,nancialandinsti-
    tutionaladministration,andpolicyanalysis.Another
    valuablesourceofknowledgeisexperiencegainedby
    localwaterprofessionalsfromhands-onmanagement.
    Thislocalknowledgeoftengoesunrecordedoreven
    unrecognized.Importantly,localmanagersareaware
    ofmanyrisksanduncertaintiesrelatedtothewater
    systemonwhichtheyoperate,andtheyareoftenthe
    rsttoidentifynewissuesandproblems,aswellas
    theirsolutions.Localsolutionsareoftenworkableas
    theyreectlocalandindigenouspracticesandknowl-
    edge,andareaimedatmeetinglocalpriorities.Local
    knowledgeshouldbecapturedandcommunicatedto
    decision-makersathigherlevels,toinformpolicyfor-
    mulationatthenationallevel.Thisalsoprocessallows
    lessonslearnedtobewidelyapplied,buildsthecapac-
    ityoflocalinstitutionsandcivilsociety,andempowers
    localactors.
    Commonly,capacityisdenedastheabilityorpower
    todo,orunderstandsomething.UNDPdenesca-
    pacityastheabilityofindividuals,groups,institutions
    andorganizationstoidentifyandsolvedevelopment
    servicesdifersfromcountrytocountrybutalmost
    alwayswiththepreponderanceofthepublicsector
    reectingamixofpolitical,ideologicalandpractical
    factors.Itisimportanttounderlinethatempiricalevi-
    dencefromdevelopedeconomiesrevealsthatthereis
    littlejusticationforageneralpresumptioninfavourof
    eithertypeofownership,andcasebycaseevaluationof
    thevarioustrade-ofsisthereforeinorder(Renzettiand
    Dupont,2003;VickersandYarrow,1988).
    Againstabackgroundofincreasingriskanduncer-
    tainty,thereisanargumentforallowingdiferent
    institutionalmodelstocoexist,whichcouldincrease
    resilienceandthepotentialforbothpolicyandtechno-
    logicalinnovation.
    5.3Institutionalknowledgeandcapacity
    5.3.1Theimportanceofknowledgeassimilationand
    transfer
    Water-relatedproblemsarecommonlytheresultof
    inefectiveinstitutionsandinadequatewatermanage-
    ment.Toimprovewatermanagementrequirescompre-
    hensiveskillsandtrainingin,forexample,engineering
    WWDR4 WATERMANAGEMENT,INSTITUTIONSANDCAPACITYDEVELOPMENT
    Source: Boesen and Munk Ranvborg (2004). For more information see http://www.mrcmekong.org/news-and-events/news/innovative-tool-for-
    mekong-basin-wide-sustainable-hydropower-assessment-launched/
    BOX 5.3
    Waterconictasanagentofchange
    Manyrecentchangesinthegovernanceofwaterandriverbasinshaveoccurredasanoutcomeofconict.InAustralia,long-
    standingconictsbetweenenvironmentalistsandfarmersintheMurrayDarlingBasinformthehistoricalbackdroptothe
    Landcaremovementandtomulti-stakeholderforumsformanagingwaterinitsbasincontext.Overanevenlongerperiod,
    competingdemandsofstateshaveservedasthebasisforinstitutionaldevelopmentoftheMurrayDarlingBasinwaterman-
    agementframework.Conictingvisionsofcatchmentmanagement(forexample,moreandlessparticipatorymodels)have
    shapedinstitutionalapproachesinNewSouthWales.
    Conictavoidancecanitselfbeadriverforinnovationinwatergovernance.InSouth-EastAsia,thespectreofresource-based
    conictbetweenthecountriessharingtheMekongRiverhasbeenastrongdriverforcooperationthroughtheMekongRiver
    Commission,andanimportantjusticationforofcialassistancetotheCommission.TheSeSanissueisacaseinpoint.The
    impactsoftheYaliFallsDaminVietNamondownstreamripariancommunitiesinnorth-easternCambodialeftindigenous
    minoritiesfromalesspowerfulcountryhavingtodealwiththeimpactofwaterresourcedevelopmentbythegovernmentof
    aneighbouringmorepowerfulcountry.Whilenotalwaysabletodeliverforlocalcommunities,suchrivercommissionscan
    generateimprovementsandinnovativemethodologicalapproaches,suchastherecentlypublishedrapidbasin-wideassess-
    menttool.
    InThailand,conicthasarisenoverthedraftingofanationalwaterlaw,leadingtoamorerobustpublicdiscussionofwater
    legislationandgovernanceissuessuchaswater-pricingoptionsandthecreationofaninclusivenationalpolicyagenda.This
    hassloweddownreform,comparedwiththeprocessinLaoPeoplesDemocraticRepublicandVietNam,whosewaterlaws
    werepassedbytheirrespectivenationalassembliesin1997and1998withoutmuchpublicdiscussion.However,eventhough
    therewaslimitedpublicdebateoverthedraftwaterlawinVietNam,itwentthroughmorethan20revisionsandwasexten-
    sivelydebatedinthenationalassemblybeforeeventuallybeingpassed.
    148
    However,under-investmentinbothinfrastructureand
    humanresourcesleadstopoorwatermanagement,
    whichthencommonlyleadstowater-relateddiseases
    (seeSection4.1).Thesediseasesareamongtheworst
    killersindevelopingcountries,wherethepoorestseg-
    mentsofthepopulationareoftenhithardest(Jnch-
    Clausen,2004).Theimpactofdiarrhoealdiseaseon
    childrenisgreaterthanthecombinedimpactofhu-
    manimmunodeciencyvirus/acquiredimmunode-
    ciencysyndrome(HIV/AIDS),tuberculosisandmalar-
    ia(WHO/UN-Water,2010,p.2).Therefore,thereisa
    greatneedtostrengthenwater-relatedinstitutionsto
    increasetheirefectiveness.Sincethe1990s,capacity
    developmenthasbecomeafavouredapproachtothis
    end(OECDDACGOVNET,2006;Pres,2008).
    Capacitydevelopmentdemandsaholisticapproach
    throughwhichpeople,organizationsandsocieties
    continuallymobilize,maintain,adaptandexpand
    theirabilitytomanagetheirownsustainabledevelop-
    ment(Batz,2007).Unfortunately,conventionalmeth-
    odsofwatermanagementareoftennotsufcientto
    dealwithhighlydynamicsystems(Timmermanetal.,
    2008).Atransitionfromtheseconventionalmethods
    towardmanagementbasedonlearningratherthan
    onlycontrol,andinclusionofthehumandimensionas
    anintegralpartofthemanagementsystem,isrequired.
    IthasthereforebeensuggestedthatIWRMshouldbe
    basedonanadaptivewatermanagement(AWM)ap-
    proach(seeSection5.1)asystematicprocessfor
    continuallyimprovingmanagementpoliciesandprac-
    ticesbylearningfromtheoutcomesofimplemented
    managementstrategies(Pahl-Wostl,2007,p.51).The
    reformrequirementsarediferentforeachinstitu-
    tion,dependingonitscorefunctionsandmandates.
    Furthermore,eachcountryandregionhasitsspe-
    ciccharacteristicsandrequirementswithrespectto
    itswaterresourcessituationandinstitutionalframe-
    work(Hamdyetal.,1998).Thisimpliesthatthereare
    nogenericsolutions,andthatproblem-solvingand
    institutionalarrangementsmustbetailoredforeach
    countryandregiontomeetitsownspecicneedsand
    conditions.
    Waterinstitutionsarestilllargelytechnologyandwater
    supply-driven.Conventionalknowledgeandcapac-
    ityiscommonlycentredarounddisciplinaryknowl-
    edge,basedontechnologicalknow-howandnatural
    science.Muchoftheinformationrequiredisphysical,
    pertainingtohydrology,biology,geologyandother
    biophysicaldisciplines(Chambers,1997).Thistypeof
    problemsovertime(UNDP,1997).AccordingtoOECD-
    DACGOVNET(2006,p.12),capacity-buildingmeansa
    processwherebypeople,organisationsandsocietyasa
    wholeunleash,strengthen,create,adaptandmaintain
    capacityovertime.Internationally,capacity-building,or
    capacitydevelopment,isessentialtomeettheMDGs
    (Pres,2008).Itimpliesfundingandresourcingofmana-
    gerialsystemstoenableinstitutionstomakeandim-
    plementpoliciesthatleadtotheefectiveandsustain-
    ableuseofwater.Theabilitytocontinueacquiringnew
    knowledgeisessentialforimprovedperformanceand
    adaptationtochangingphysicalandsocialconditions.
    Thebalancingofcommunityfocusandthetechnical
    approachcallsforstrongintellectualleadershipand
    authority,andstrikingabalancebetweenbottom-up
    andtop-downapproaches.However,itisimportant
    tokeepinmindthatanattitudefocusedonapplying
    knowledgeisthemostimportantelementofcapacity
    development.
    5.3.2Transforminginstitutionstobecomemore
    efective
    Thewatersupplyandsanitationsectorhasalowprior-
    ityinmanydevelopingcountries,whereinvestmentsin
    healthandeducationareoftenprioritized.Furthermore,
    since1997theproportionofdevelopmentaidallocat-
    edtosanitationanddrinkingwaterfellfrom8%to5%,
    whiledevelopmentaidallocatedtohealthincreased
    from7%to11.5%andthatforeducationremained
    steadyataround7%(WHO/UN-Water,2010,p.15).
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER5
    Knowledge needs
    to be multi-
    disciplinary, based
    on an understanding
    of society and
    nature, and able to
    facilitate integrated
    approaches.
    149
    Knowledgeneedstobemulti-disciplinary,basedonan
    understandingofsocietyandnature,andabletofacili-
    tateintegratedapproaches.
    Theinvolvementandempowermentofallstakeholders
    isthereforerequiredtomakewaterinstitutionsmore
    efective.Coordinationbetweeninstitutionsisneces-
    sarytoachievewaterresourcemanagementgoals,as
    isawareness-raisingandeducationforallstakeholder
    groups,fromlocalcommunitiestopoliticians.Anex-
    ampleofaninstitutionbuiltontheinvolvementofall
    stakeholdersisthebasin(orwatershed)management
    committee.Basinmanagementcommitteesarecen-
    traltotheIWRMapproach,providingaforumwhere
    stakeholdergroupscancommunicatetheirviewsand
    concernsregardingwaterresourcesmanagement
    withinthebasin(Jnch-Clausen,2004;seeDourojeanni,
    JouravlevandChvez,2002andDourojeanni,2001for
    region-specicexamplesandissues).
    conventionaltechnocraticknowledgeandcapacityis
    important,andwillremainnecessaryforwateragen-
    ciesanddecision-makers.However,toimprovetheef-
    fectivenessoftheseinstitutions,theemphasishasto
    changefromtechnologicalsolutionstomanagement
    ofprocessesandpeople,involvinginclusivedecision-
    makingandbottom-upapproaches(Tropp,2007).
    WWDR4 WATERMANAGEMENT,INSTITUTIONSANDCAPACITYDEVELOPMENT
    BOX 5.4
    EnhancingadaptivecapacityintheMekongBasin
    In2000,theMekongDeltafaceditsworstoodsin40
    years.About800peopledied,9millionwereafected,
    andthecostsofdamagesreachedoverUS$455million.
    Sincethen,arangeofinitiativeshavebeenimplemented
    undertheFloodMitigationandManagementProgramme
    (FMMP).Theseincludeoodforecastingcapacities,best
    practiceguidelinesforintegratedoodriskmanagement,
    guidelinesforintegrationofoodpreparednessplansin
    districtandprovincialplanningprocesses,ood-probabil-
    itymappingandland-usezoning,andanannualMekong
    oodforum.
    TheFMMPs2009FloodReporthighlightedtheimplica-
    tionsofclimatechangespecicallyforoodrisk.Climate
    changewasalsoakeythemeattheFMMPs2010an-
    nualMekongFloodForum.TheForumpromoteslearning
    acrosstheMekongbasin.Itprovidesgovernmentsand
    othersinvolvedintheprogrammewiththeopportunityto
    gatherdataonchangesinowregimesandoodrisksat
    diferentscalesandtoexploreimplicationsandresponses
    bysharingexperiences.Forexample,theAsianDisaster
    PreparednessCentre(ADPC)isprovidinglessonsoninte-
    gratingoodriskmanagementatdistrictandprovincial
    scalesacrosscountrieswithdecentralizeddisasterman-
    agementsystemsfacingsimilarchallenges.
    AtanationallevelADPCsparticipationinCambodiasna-
    tionalDisasterRiskReduction(DRR)Forum,comprising
    nationalNGOsandtheGovernmentDisasterManagement
    Committee,hasbeenasourceoflearningonapproaches
    toDRRforbothADPCandtheMekongRiverCommission
    (MRC).Ithasalsoactedasachannelforlinkinglocal-
    levelpilotschemestonationaldisasterriskmanagement
    (DRM)policyprocesses.TheMRCalsohostsmanyregion-
    alsummitsandexchangevisitstopromoteinformation
    sharingandlearningacrossthebasin.Increasingly,the
    programmeispromotingdialoguewithcivilsocietyor-
    ganizationsandexpertsoutsideMRC.AMekongpanelon
    climatechangeisduetobeestablishedundertheClimate
    ChangeAdaptationInitiative(CCAI)forcontinuouslearn-
    ingandreectiononclimatechangeintheregion.
    Source: Mitchell et al. (2010).
    BOX 5.5
    Politicalleadershipasadriverforbetterwater
    managementoutcomes
    Inrecentyearstherehasbeenanincreaseinthenumber
    ofwomenappointedaswaterandenvironmentministers
    indevelopingcountries.Thishasbeenamajordriverin
    improvinglong-termwatersecurityandmoreequitable
    accesstowaterfordomesticandproductivepurposes.
    Forexample,waterministerssuchasMariaMutagamba
    ofUganda,andBuyelwaSonjica(formerMinisterof
    WaterAfairs)andEdnaMolewa(MinisterofWaterand
    EnvironmentalAfairsappointedin2010)ofSouthAfrica
    haveusedaformofafrmativeactiontoimproveaccess
    throughwomensempowermentinAfrica.Allthreeminis-
    tershaveservedasChairoftheAfricanMinistersCouncil
    onWater(AMCOW),andhavebeenleadingtheefort
    tobringmorewomenintowatermanagementinAfrica,
    andindeedinotherregionsthroughtheWomenLeaders
    fortheWater,SanitationandHygiene(WASH)pro-
    grammeoftheWaterSupplyandSanitationCollaborative
    Council(WSSCC).InSeptember2010,AMCOWlaunched
    itsStrategyforMainstreamingGenderinAfricasWater
    Sector,20102014,whichprovidesguidelinesforafrma-
    tiveactiontogetwomeninvolvedinwaterandsanitation
    management.InLesotho,SouthAfricaandUganda,these
    afrmativeactionprogrammesprovidespecialbursaries
    andincentivestotrainwomenforwaterandsanitation-re-
    latedcareers,includingscienceandengineering.
    Source: Brewster et al. (2006). For more information see
    http://www.amcow.net
    150
    authoritiesforsuchtasksasestablishingwatermeter
    replacementpoliciesandassistingwithleakdetection
    andrepair,plumbingandgeneralwaterreticulation
    maintenance.Thisisundertakeninclosecooperation
    withthetechnicalandadministrativestafattheau-
    thoritytoensurecapacitydevelopmentandownership
    (MAWF,2010b).InNamibia,theconceptofperfor-
    mancesupportteamsisimplementedasanintegral
    partoftheIWRMplan.However,thisconceptcanbe
    appliedregardlessofwhetheracountryadoptsIWRM.
    Themainfocusofthesupportteamistoprovide
    hands-onsupporttoinstitutionsanddepartmentsto
    improvetheircapacitytodoabetterjob.
    Whiletraditionaltechnicalknowledgeandthecapac-
    itytomanagewaterresourcesremainsimportantin
    thecontextofAWM,theabilityofwaterinstitutions
    andmanagementactorstoabsorb,adoptandimple-
    mentnewformsofmanagementisdependentupon
    additionalknowledgeandcapacities.InAWM,ca-
    pacitydevelopmentreferstothedevelopmentofthe
    knowledge,skillsandattitudesnecessaryformanage-
    mentactorsandprofessionalorganizationstoincrease
    theiradaptive capacityandcreateinstitutionsthat
    areexibleandresponsiveenoughtosupportthem
    inthecontextofincreasingrisksanduncertainty(van
    Scheltingaetal.,2009).Box5.4providesanexample
    Forbasinmanagementcommitteestobeabletocon-
    tributetothedecision-makingprocess,thereneedsto
    beaclearmandateoutliningtherolesandresponsibil-
    ityoftheinstitution.Sufcientfundingmustalsobeal-
    locatedtoallowthecommitteetollkeypositionsand
    toactivelycontributetothemanagementofthebasin.
    Thereisaneedforasolidinformationbaseproviding
    up-to-datebiophysical,societal,nancialandtechnical
    information,whichwillprovidethebasisformonitor-
    ing,evaluationanddecision-making.Finally,adequate
    humancapacityamongallinvolvedisessentialtoal-
    lowallstakeholdersfairrepresentation,andtoenable
    thecommitteetocontributemeaningfullytomanage-
    mentanddecision-makingatalllevels.
    Waterprofessionalscanserveasfacilitatorsand
    knowledge-brokers,abletoengagewithstakeholders
    atalllevelsandbuildbridgesbetweenthem.Theycan
    assistlocalcommunities,userassociations,business-
    es,localgovernmentsandotherstakeholdersinbet-
    terarticulatingtheirconcernsandpriorities,aswellas
    sharinginsightsandexperiences.Theycanalsoassist
    inarticulatingdemands.Forexample,inNamibia,one
    centralelementofthecapacity-buildingcomponent
    oftheIWRMplanisforthegovernmenttoestablish
    performancesupportteams.Theseareteamsofwater
    professionalsthatprovidehands-onsupporttolocal
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER5
    BOX 5.6
    Forumforintegratedresourcemanagement(FIRM):AnexamplefromruralNamibia
    TheFIRMisanapproachgivingruralfarmerslivingoncommunallymanagedfarmlandsatoolallowingthemtobeincharge
    oftheirowndevelopment(Krugeretal.,2003).Inthecentreisacommunity-basedorganization(CBO)ofruralfarmersora
    waterpointcommitteetakingtheleadinorganizing,planningandmonitoringtheirownactivitiesanddevelopmentactions
    whilecoordinatingtheinterventionsoftheirserviceproviders.Serviceprovidersincludetraditionalauthorities,government
    orprivateextensionservices,NGOs,otherCBOs,andshortorlong-termprojectsorprogrammes.
    ThekeyelementoftheFIRMapproachisthecollaborativeplanning,implementationandmonitoringprocessledbytheCBO
    representingthecommunityinvolved(Kambatuku,2003).Thisusuallytakestheformofanannualorsemi-annualmeeting
    towhichallCBOmembersandassociatedserviceprovidersareinvited.Duringthemeeting,thevision,goalsandobjectives
    ofthecommunityarereviewedandeitherreafrmedorrevised.Resultsobtainedfromformalorinformalmonitoringofthe
    previousyearsplansandactivitiesarethoroughlydiscussedandlessonslearnedareextracted.Thisanalysisservesastheba-
    sisforthenextstepoftheannualmeeting:operationalplanningforthecomingyear.Duringthisprocess,thevariousservice
    providerscommitthemselves,withintheirmandate,toprovidingspecicsupporttothecommunitybasedonthecommuni-
    tysownagreedobjectives.Thisapproachensuresthatservicesprovidedbymandatedserviceprovidersandprojectpart-
    nerscontributetotheagreedneedsandwishesoftheCBOandthegreatercommunity.Italsominimizestheamountoftime
    neededbycommunitiestomeetwiththeirserviceproviders,andfurtherensuresownershipbycommunitiesoftheinterven-
    tionsthattakeplaceintheirarea.
    Source: Reproduced from Seely et al. (2007, p. 112).
    151
    constructionoftheresundbridgebetweenDenmark
    andSwedenillustratesasuccessfulapplicationofITC.
    Theprojectinvolvedexpertsfrommanydisciplines,who
    hadtoworkinpartnershipwithdiferentstakehold-
    ers,includingthepublic.TheestablishmentofanICT-
    basedreal-timewaterinformationserviceallowedall
    stakeholderstomonitortheprogressoftheprojectand
    resultsfromdiferentscenariosandparticipateproac-
    tivelyinthedecision-makingprocess(Velickov,2007).
    AccordingtoSeelyetal.(2008),severalkeyfactors
    contributetomakingtheconnectionsnecessaryforfa-
    cilitatingapplicationonalllevelsofresearchadvances.
    Theseincludetranslation,informationdissemination,
    communication,communicationplatforms,boundary
    organisationsandleadershipcontributingtoknowl-
    edge,motivationandcapacity.Encouragingresearch
    brokersandsciencejournaliststoengageininterdisci-
    plinarypolicy-makingdebatescanfacilitatethisprocess.
    AnassessmentoftherolesofDanishsciencejournal-
    istsandcommunicatorsininformingthepublicand
    policy-makersshowsthatsciencecommunicatorsplay
    animportantroleinprovidingthepublicwithagreater
    andincreasedunderstandingofscienticknowledge,
    andputtingsciencesinabroadersocialanddemo-
    craticcontextofvaluetodecisionandpolicy-makers
    (Hvidtfelt-Nielsen,2010).
    ofgoodpracticeforenhancingtheadaptivecapacity
    atdiferentlevels.
    Gender-sensitiveapproachesintransforminginstitu-
    tionsisanotherimportantkeytosuccess,asexempli-
    edinAfrica(Box5.6).
    5.3.3Informationandcommunicationssystems
    Forwatermanagerstobeabletoadapttochangeor
    tobepreparedforuncertainfuturechange,theyneed
    accesstonewinformation,andtheyneedthecapac-
    itytoprocesstheinformationandimplementchanges
    basedontheirnewknowledge(Pahl-Wostl,2007).
    Localmanagershavingaccesstoconsistent,timely
    andreliableinformationinaformatthatismeaning-
    fultothemempowersthemtotakepartindecision-
    making,andtoholdserviceprovidersandgovernment
    moreaccountable.Informationandcommunication
    systems(ICS)canbeparticularlyusefultofacilitat-
    ingthesharingofinformationandknowledgeatlocal,
    riverbasin,nationalandtosomeextentinternational
    levels.Atthenationallevel,itisessentialtoestablish
    sustainableICSframeworksforcapturing,storingand
    disseminatingdata,informationandknowledgetoall
    stakeholdersinthewatersector.Thissignicantlycon-
    tributestoimproveddecision-makingregardingwater
    resourcemanagement(MAWF,2010a).Atthecommu-
    nitylevel,concretestepstowardssharinginformation
    andknowledge,contributingtoimproveddecision-
    makingandresourcemanagement,canincludecreat-
    ingdialogueplatformsinvolvinglocalstakeholders
    andtheirassistingserviceorganizations,(e.g.govern-
    mentinstitutions,extensionservices,NGOsandother
    serviceproviders).Box5.6presentsanexampleof
    suchaplatformtheForumforIntegratedResource
    Management(FIRM).Thefocusofsuchacommunity-
    drivenforumistoplanandmakeinformeddecisions
    ratherthandisputeresolutions.
    Scienticresearchphysical,technicalorsocialshould
    ideallycontributetoimprovedwaterresourcesmanage-
    ment.Scientistsneedtodisseminateresultsandcom-
    municatetheirndingsinawaythatcanbeunderstood
    andreadilyimplementedbypolicy-makers,politicians
    andcommunities.Atthesametime,theymustlearnfrom
    experiencesgainedthroughimplementationbyusersat
    alllevels(Seelyetal.,2008,p.236).Arangeofinfor-
    mationcommunicationtechnology(ICT)toolsexistto
    communicatescienticknowledgeefectively,includ-
    inganimationsandrole-plays.Hotwaterissuescanbe
    usedtoraisepublicawarenessandunderstanding.The
    WWDR4 WATERMANAGEMENT,INSTITUTIONSANDCAPACITYDEVELOPMENT
    Local managers
    having access to
    consistent, timely and
    reliable information
    in a format that is
    meaningful to them
    empowers them to
    take part in decision-
    making, and to hold
    service providers and
    government more
    accountable.
    152
    takingplacealmostinstantaneously.However,itisim-
    portantforindividuals,organizationsandinstitutions
    torecognizethatcapacitydevelopmentisanunending
    process,asknowledgeandtheenvironment,natu-
    ral,socialandeconomic,inwhichwatermanagement
    istakingplaceisconstantlychanging.Akeyelement
    ofcapacitydevelopmentisinstillingtheconceptof
    continuouschangeandhowtoadapttoanddealwith
    evolvingsituationsandconditions.Box5.7illustrates
    howthedevelopmentofknowledgeandcapacityisa
    step-wise,ongoingprocessandtouchesuponseveral
    elementspreviouslydescribedinthissection.
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER5
    5.3.4Knowledgeandcapacitydevelopment:An
    ongoingprocess
    Recentevaluationshavedemonstratedthatwater-
    relateddevelopmentprojectsarenowdecidedlymore
    efectiveandsustainablethanbeforethemid-1990s
    (WorldBank,2010).Thiscanbeattributedinlargepart
    tostrongerinstitutions,bettergovernance,andbetter
    technicalandmanagerialcompetenceinthedevelop-
    ingcountrieswhosecapacityhasbeenstrengthened
    (AlaertsandDickinson,2009,p.29).
    Withappropriatementorsprovidinghands-onexpe-
    rience,incrementalcapacitydevelopmentcanstart
    BOX 5.7
    SociallearningandadaptivewaterresourcesmanagementintheSouthIndianLowerBhavani
    TheLowerBhavaniProject(LBP)has84,000haasacommandarealocatedintheSouthIndianstateofTamilNadu.Among
    others,themostsignicantuncertaintyfactorisrainfallvariability.TheLBPsufersfromwaterscarcityandhighunpredict-
    ability,leavingthefarmerstoendureandadapttofrequentseasonswithoutcanalsupply.Thefarmershaveprovedtobeable
    tolearnandadaptovertheyears.Thelarge-scaledevelopmentofwellsintheareashowshowthefarmershavesuccessfully
    managedtoincreasewateravailabilitytobalancewaterscarcityduringseasonswithoutsupply.Thefarmershavealsoac-
    quiredacapacitytoswiftlyadjustthecroppingpatterntothehighlyunpredictablevariabilityofseasonalcanalwatersupply,
    andalsotoentirelyrainfedconditions.
    TheentirechainofsystemchangesshowsthatsociallearningistakingplacewithintheLBPsystem.Thediferentactorshave
    togetherlearnedhowtooptimizethesystemwithinthelimitsofthetechnicalinfrastructure,thereservoircapacityandthe
    canaldischargecapacity,andthevariabilityinavailablesupplydecidedbytheerraticprecipitation.Thewayfarmershave
    learnedandbeeninspiredbyeachother,likethebenetsfromconjunctivegroundwateruseandtheacceptanceofirrigated
    drycrops,areexamplesofsociallearningbetweenactorsatshorttimescales.Onalong-termperspective,alltheactorsin
    theLBPsystemhavelearnedfromtheenvironmentalresponsesandeachothersbehaviour.Togethertheyhavecontributed
    tothealterationofgovernancestructuresandhavedevelopednewinnovativepracticeswithoutbeingboundandlimitedby
    theoriginaluseoftheexistingtechnicalinfrastructure.Allactors,thus,livewithchange,butfewappeartorememberwhat
    causedthechangeinthesystemandwhyithappened.
    TheAWManalysisshowsthattheLBPsystemhas,overtheyears,fullledthecriteriaofacomplexadaptivesystemmoreand
    more.Severalchangeshavetakenplaceandearliermistakesorfailureshavebeenaddressedinastepwisewaytoreachthe
    presentcomplexhuman-environmenttechnologicalsystem.Thesystemprovestohaveanadaptivecapacityandfarmersnot
    onlycopeinanadhocmanner,butalsohavedevelopeddiferentadaptivestrategies.Toalargedegree,thesystemfullsthe
    requirementofanadaptiveregime.Sociallearningtakesplaceatbothsystemlevelandattheindividualfarmerslevel.The
    uncertaintyfactorshavebeenconsideredinastepwisewayduringthesystemchangecyclesandhavebeenincludedinthe
    systemdesign.Thesystemhasmovedfromatop-downprojecttoamanagementsystemwithmultipleactors.Bothfarmers
    andtheauthoritieshavelearnedovertheyearsandnowhavebetterpossibilitiestointeract.
    Source: Adapted from Lannerstad and Molden (2009, pp. 2627).
    153
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    Notes
    1 Aajaretraditionalsystems,sometimeswithformallegal
    status,settingtraditionalpracticesforallocatingwaterbetween
    diferentperiodsoftimeandbetweenusers.Theycontaina
    processofusersrightsbasedonownershiporrental(see
    Chapter25).
    2 Clientelismreferstoaformofsocialorganizationcommonin
    manyregionsandcharacterizedbypatronclientrelationships.
    Insuchplaces,relativelypowerfulandrichpatronspromise
    toprovideclientswithjobs,protection,infrastructure,and
    otherbenetsinexchangeforvotesandotherformsofloyalty,
    includinglabour.
    3 Itisacknowledgedthattherecanbewidevariationsbetween
    countrieswithinaregion.Theresultsofthesurveyshouldbe
    perceivedasrelative,notsuitableforregionalcomparison.
    4 Anapproachwherebydonorsagreetopooltheirresources
    tosupportaspecicsectorandfollowcommonpolicies,
    includingtheuseofnationalgovernmentproceduresforthe
    disbursementandaccountingofaidfunds.

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    157 WWDR4 WATERMANAGEMENT,INSTITUTIONSANDCAPACITYDEVELOPMENT WWDR4 BEYONDDEMAND:WATERSSOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS WWDR4 THEWATERRESOURCE:VARIABILITY,VULNERABILITYANDUNCERTAINTY WWDR4 WATERDEMAND:WHATDRIVESCONSUMPTION?
    CHAPTER 6
    From raw data to informed decisions
    Shutterstock/Photodiem

    Author MikeMuller
    Contributors RichardConnor,EnginKoncagl,JamesWinpenny
    andSisiraSaddhamangalaWithanachchi

    The absence of systematic data collection in most countries impedes regular reporting
    on water resources and water-use trends. There is consequently a growing interest in and
    demand for better and more accurate and consistent water data and accounting. This needs
    to be translated into improved data availability and quality, more structured data acquisition
    and better information about water. Unfortunately, there has been no major progress since
    the third edition of the World Water Development Report in terms of observation methods,
    networks and monitoring (see also Bridging the observational gap, Chapter 13 in that report).
    Global programmes such as WWAP need to focus on core data items from which diferent
    users can calculate indicators of specic interest to them. Technological advancements are
    also making it easier to monitor and report on various dimensions of water resources. The
    development and application of these new technologies should be made a priority.
    159
    dimensionsofwateranditsusesarechangingover
    timeindiferentpartsoftheworld.Thisefortisbased
    ontheassumptionthatbettermanagementoflim-
    itedwaterresourcesrequiressystematicmonitoring
    todeterminewhetherthemanyandvariedpublicand
    privatepolicyobjectivessetfortheresourcearebeing
    achieved.Butitalsointendstohelpreadersandusers
    oftheWWDRtounderstandbettertherisksandthe
    uncertaintiesthatcharacterizewaterresources.
    Informationaboutwaterisbecomingincreasinglyim-
    portanttothefollowinggroups:
    National governments.Manycountrieswantreliable
    andobjectiveinformationaboutthestateofwater
    resources,theiruseandmanagement,inorderto
    safeguardtheirwatersecurityasamatterofnation-
    alsurvival.Inparticular,theyseekinformationabout
    trendsthatmayhaveanimpactontheminthefu-
    ture.Theyoftenseektounderstandtheirownsitu-
    ationbybenchmarkingitandmakingcomparisons
    withothercountriesandregions.
    Multilateral organizations. Severalmultilateralor-
    ganizations,suchastheOECD,havesetpolicygoals
    includingenvironmentalobjectivessuchasde-
    couplingenvironmentalpressuresfromeconomic
    growth(OECD,2001,p.11).Themonitoringofpa-
    rameterssuchaswater-usetrendsplayakeyrole
    inachievingsuchobjectives.Manyotherregional
    andspecializedorganizations,rangingfromthe
    EuropeanUnion(EU)andAfricanUniontotheG8
    haveraisedrelatedissues.
    Waterissuesarealsoraisedbydiferentsectorsatall
    levels,fromlocalcommunitytoglobalmultilateralor-
    ganizations.Farmers,urbanplanners,drinkingwa-
    terandwastewaterservicecompanies,thedisaster
    managementcommunity,businessandindustry,and
    environmentalistsareallconcernedbythecurrent
    situation:
    Theabilitytoproducesufcientfoodforgrowing
    andincreasinglyafuentpopulationsisaglobal
    concern.Waterisanessentialresourceforfoodpro-
    duction,therefore,itisimportanttoremainadvised
    oftheavailability,sustainabilityandvariabilityof
    watersupplieswhetherfromrainfall,abstraction
    fromriversandlakes,orgroundwater.Theriskthat
    water-relatedeventsmightafectlocalfoodproduc-
    tionorpricesisanincreasinglyimportantpolitical
    concern.
    6.1Data,monitoringandthepurposeof
    indicators
    ThethemeofthiseditionoftheWorld Water
    Development Report(WWDR)isuncertainty.Thisindi-
    catesalackofadequateinformationonwaterresources
    andwater-usetrends,orthatavailableinformationis
    notbeingused.Regardlessoftheenterpriseinques-
    tion,whetheritistendingahouseholdfoodgarden,
    managingthebusinessofamultinationalfoodcompany,
    orguidinganationaleconomy,successfulriskman-
    agementdependsontheavailabilityandcollectionof
    sufcientinformationtoproperlycharacterizerelevant
    risksanduncertainties.Riskmanagementforwater
    resourcesandtheirusesimpliesthemonitoringof
    water-relatedactivitiestoobtainthedatanecessary
    togeneratetheinformationrequiredbyinterested
    parties.Oncesufcientdatahavebeenamassed,they
    canbesummarizedintheformofindicatorstoaddress
    specicareasofconcern.
    Sinceitwasrstpublishedin2003,theWWDRhasin-
    cludedacomprehensivecollectionofdataandindica-
    torsaboutthevariousdimensionsofwaterresources
    andtheiruses.TheWWDRhassoughttoupdatethis
    informationinsubsequenteditions,andinthisfourth
    editionpresentsthesedataandindicatorsaspartof
    VolumeOne(Table6.1).
    Table6.1presentstheindicatorsthathavebeende-
    velopedbyWWAPincooperationwithprominent
    organizations(themembersofUN-Water,NGOs,uni-
    versities,etc).Thelistiscategorizedbymajorchal-
    lengeareasthatarecentraltotheWWDR.Eachindi-
    catorfallsunderoneormoreelementsoftheDPSIR
    analyticalframeworkDrivingforce,Pressure,State,
    ImpactandResponse.Theindicatordevelopment
    processiscloselylinkedtoWWAPsoverarchingman-
    dateofmonitoringandreportingonwateraround
    theworld.WWDRindicatorsaresystematicallyup-
    datedandrevisedtoreachtheultimategoal:tode-
    velopasetofindicatorsthatareacceptedacrossthe
    entireUNsystemtomonitorperformanceandtrack
    changes,notonlyinthenaturalenvironment(such
    asthehydrologicalcycle,theaquaticenvironment,
    waterquality,andwateravailabilityanduse)butalso
    inthesocio-economicandpoliticalenvironmentof
    thewaterworld(suchasingovernance,waterpricing
    andvaluation).
    Thegoalhasbeentoprovidenotjustsnapshots
    ofinformation,butanindicationofhowdiferent
    WWDR4 FROMRAWDATATOINFORMEDDECISIONS
    160 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER6
    TABLE 6.1
    UnitedNationsWorld Water Development Report indicators
    Topic Indicator
    Category in
    causeefect
    approach
    a
    Type of
    indicator
    b
    Level of
    stress on the
    resource
    Index of non-sustainable water use Driving force,
    Pressure, State
    Key
    Rural and urban population Pressure, State Basic
    Relative water stress index Pressure, State Key
    Sources of contemporary nitrogen loading Pressure, State Key
    Impact of sediment trapping by large dams and reservoirs Pressure Key
    Coefcient of variation for the climate moisture index State Key
    Water re-use index Pressure, State Key
    Governance
    Access to information, participation and justice Response Developing
    Assessing progress towards achieving the
    integrated water resources management (IWRM) target
    Response Key
    Settlements
    Percentage of urban population Pressure, State Key
    Proportion of urban population living in slums Pressure, State Key
    State of the
    resource
    Total actual renewable water resources State Key
    Total actual renewable water resources
    per capita
    State Developing
    Inow from other countries as share of
    total actual renewable water resources
    (Dependency Ratio)
    State Developing
    Proportion of total actual renewable
    freshwater resources withdrawn:
    MDG Water Indicator
    State Developing
    Groundwater development stress Pressure, State Developing
    Brackish/saline groundwater at shallow and intermediate depths State Key
    Ecosystems
    Fragmentation and ow regulation of rivers: dam Intensity State, Impact Key
    Dissolved nitrogen (nitrates + nitrogen dioxide) State Key
    Trends in catchment protection State, Response Key
    Freshwater species population trends index State Key
    Health
    Disability-adjusted life year Impact Key
    Prevalence of stunting among children under age 5 Impact Developing
    Mortality rate of children under age 5 Impact Developing
    Access to improved drinking water Impact Key
    Access to improved sanitation Impact Key
    Note: An Indicator Prole sheet with a detailed denition and explanation of how the indicator is computed (as well as data tables for some
    indicators) is available for most indicators at http://www.unesco.org/new/en/natural-sciences/environment/water/wwap/indicators/.
    Exceptions are sub-indicators for Total actual renewable water resources.
    a. The categories are based on the DPSIR (Driving force, Pressure, State, Impact, Response) framework. For details, see WWDR1 (ch. 3, pp. 3247;
    http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0012/001297/129726e.pdf#page=53) and WWDR2 (ch. 1, pp. 3338;
    http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0014/001454/145405e.pdf#page=21).
    b. Basic indicators provide fundamental information and are well established and widely used; data are generally widely available for all
    countries. Key indicators are well dened and validated, have global coverage and are linked directly to policy goals. Developing indicators are
    in a formative stage and may evolve into key indicators following renement of methodological issues or data development and testing.
    Source: Compiled by E. Koncagl, S. Saddhamangala Withanachchi and L. Dubin.
    161 WWDR4 FROMRAWDATATOINFORMEDDECISIONS
    Note: An Indicator Prole sheet with a detailed denition and explanation of how the indicator is computed (as well as data tables for some
    indicators) is available for most indicators at http://www.unesco.org/new/en/natural-sciences/environment/water/wwap/indicators/.
    Exceptions are sub-indicators for Total actual renewable water resources.
    a. The categories are based on the DPSIR (Driving force, Pressure, State, Impact, Response) framework. For details, see WWDR1 (ch. 3, pp. 3247;
    http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0012/001297/129726e.pdf#page=53) and WWDR2 (ch. 1, pp. 3338;
    http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0014/001454/145405e.pdf#page=21).
    b. Basic indicators provide fundamental information and are well established and widely used; data are generally widely available for all
    countries. Key indicators are well dened and validated, have global coverage and are linked directly to policy goals. Developing indicators are
    in a formative stage and may evolve into key indicators following renement of methodological issues or data development and testing.
    Source: Compiled by E. Koncagl, S. Saddhamangala Withanachchi and L. Dubin.
    TABLE 6.1
    UnitedNationsWorld Water Development Reportindicators(continued)
    Topic Indicator
    Category in
    causeefect
    approach
    a
    Type of
    indicator
    b
    Food,
    agriculture
    and rural
    livelihoods
    Percentage of undernourished people State Key
    Percentage of poor people living in rural areas State Key
    Agriculture GDP as share of total GDP State Key
    Irrigated land as a percentage of cultivated land Pressure, State Key
    Agriculture water withdrawals as share of total water withdrawals Pressure Key
    Extent of land salinized by irrigation State Key
    Groundwater use as share of total irrigation Pressure, State Key
    Industry
    and energy
    Trends in industrial water use Pressure Key
    Water use by major sector State Key
    Organic pollution emissions (biochemical oxygen demand)
    by industrial sector
    Impact Key
    Trends in ISO 14001 certication Response Key
    Electricity generation by energy source State Key
    Total primary energy supply by source State Key
    Carbon intensity of electricity generation Impact Key
    Volume of desalinated water produced Response Key
    Access to electricity Pressure Key
    Capability for hydropower generation State Key
    Risk
    assessment
    Mortality risk index State Key
    Risk and policy assessment indicator Response Key
    Climate vulnerability index State Key
    Valuing and
    charging for
    the resource
    Water sector share in total public spending Response Developing
    Ratio of actual to desired level of public
    investment in drinking water supply
    Response Developing
    Ratio of actual to desired level of public
    investment in basic sanitation
    Response Developing
    Rate of operation and maintenance cost recovery for water
    supply and sanitation
    Driving force,
    Response
    Developing
    Water and sanitation charges as percentage of various household
    income groups
    Driving force,
    Response
    Developing
    Knowledge
    base and
    capacity
    Knowledge index State Developing

    162 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER6
    Whilebothnationalandinternationallawmandate
    environmentalprotection,itisimportanttomonitor
    thestatusofaquaticecosystemsinordertoassess
    theefectivenessofsuchregulation.
    Climatechangehashelpedtofocusattentionon
    water-relatedissuesandhasraisedthelevelsofun-
    certaintyaboutparameterssuchaswateravailabil-
    ity.Thesewerepreviouslyconsideredasessentially
    xedandstatisticallypredictablebasedonhistorical
    records.Thereisalsoconcernthatextremeweather
    eventswilloccurmorefrequently.Thishashigh-
    lightedtheneedtomonitorwaterresourcesystems
    morecarefullytodetecttrendsasearlyaspossible
    andsupportthedevelopmentofefectiveresponses.
    Asglobalapproachesaredevelopedtorespondto
    thisglobalchallenge,itisimportanttomonitorboth
    theimpactsonwaterresourcesystemsofclimate
    changemitigationstrategiesandtheefectiveness
    ofadaptationstrategies.
    Agreementonbroadgoalsandmanagementstrate-
    gies,whetherdirectinfrastructuralinterventionsor
    softpolicyadaptiveinitiatives,isnecessaryforall
    thesediferentareasofactivity.Oncegoalsandstrate-
    gieshavebeendened,theirefectivenessneedstobe
    monitored.Thisrequiresthedenitionofappropriate
    indicatorsandthegenerationofadequatedata.The
    keyobjectiveistoreduceuncertaintyaboutwaterre-
    sourcesandtheiruse,therebysupportingthemanage-
    mentofrisksposedbythecomplexnaturalsystemsof
    whichtheyformapart.
    6.2Keyindicators
    Astaggeringlyextensivearrayofindicatorshavebeen
    developed,orareproposed,tomonitorthestate,use
    andmanagementofwaterresources,forawiderangeof
    purposes.WhilethersteditionoftheWWDRreported
    onover160indicators,only49werecoveredinWWDR4.
    Thisreductionoccurred,inpart,becauseofthedifculties
    encounteredinobtainingupdateddatafortheindicators,
    butalsoreectedconsiderationabouttheirnatureand
    purpose.AstwoOECDexpertsrecentlycommented,
    Indicators are invariably developed to inform and
    inuence diferent societal, political, technical and
    institutional processes ... a composite indicator de-
    veloped by an environmental NGO will probably
    have more success raising awareness among the
    general public, than as a widely accepted informa-
    tion tool among government analysts. (Scrivens and
    Iasiello, 2010, p. 9)
    Similarly,populationgrowthandincreasingurbani-
    zationraisesquestionsforgovernmentplanners
    abouttheavailabilityofwaterresourcestosupport
    suchdevelopmentsandthewastewaterimpacts
    theygenerate.Uncertaintyaboutfuturepressures
    ontheresourceafectswatermanagement,but
    uncertainwateravailabilitymayitselfposeariskto
    economicactivityandurbandevelopment.
    Atthecommunitylevel,existingchallengesofen-
    suringadequatesuppliesandavoidingundueim-
    pactsonwaterqualityasaresultofwastewaterdis-
    chargesarebeingsupplementedbythreatsposed
    byvulnerabilitytoextremeweatherevents.These
    arepromptingareviewofmeasurestobuildresil-
    iencetodisasterssuchasoods.
    Waterhasbeenidentiedasasignicantfuturerisk
    tobusinessactivities.Manylargebusinessesare
    seekingtounderstandbetterthechallengesitposes
    totheiroperations,includingreputationalrisk.They
    arealsoconcernedabouttheavailabilityofwater
    andtheimpactoftheiroperationsonthequality
    oftheresource.Absenceofclearinformationmay
    inuencetheirinvestmentdecisionsorevenleadto
    curtailmentofoperations.
    Environmentalstakeholdersrecognizethatwaterre-
    sourcesareanecosystemintheirownright,aswell
    asbeingessentialtothehealthofotherecosystems.
    The UN Statistical
    Division continues
    to support member
    countries to develop
    their physical water
    accounts so as to
    better understand
    where their water
    comes from and how
    it is used.
    163
    AQUASTATobtainswaterwithdrawalvaluesfrom
    ministriesorothergovernmentalagenciesatcountry
    level,althoughsomedatagapsarelledusingUnited
    Nations(UN)data.EurostatandOECDarevaluable
    sourcesofinformationforEurope,Australia,Japan,
    NewZealandandNorthernAmerica,andarealsoused
    tolldatagaps.
    TheJointMonitoringProgramme(JMP)
    3
    forWater
    SupplyandSanitation(WHO/UNICEF)istheof-
    cialUNmechanismtaskedwithmonitoringprogress
    Manysector-specicindicatorshavebeenproposed
    andcalculated.Asidefromsimpletrendsinwateruse,
    thewater-useefciencyofdiferentsectorsinterms
    ofoutputperunitofwatercanbeausefulindicator.
    Similarly,monitoringtheproportionoftreateddomes-
    ticwastewatercanhelptounderstandtheimpactof
    wateruseonthenaturalenvironment.Butthefocuson
    climatechangehasalsohighlightedtheimportanceof
    selectingappropriateindicators.Forexample,inSouth
    Africa,energyplanningrequiresaninformedtrade-of
    betweencarbondioxide(CO
    2
    )emissionsandwater-
    useefciency(Box6.1).
    Atabroadersocietallevel,thereisthewidelyused
    conceptofnationalwaterstress(seeSections3.1and
    4.6.1),whichsimplyconsiderstheamountofwater
    availabletoacountryperperson(Falkenmarketal.,
    1989).Attheotherextreme,thewaterpovertyindex
    proposedbySullivan(2002)seekstocombineawide
    rangeofparameters,includingavailablewaterresourc-
    es,waterusebythreemajorsectors,fourmeasuresof
    waterquality,informationaboutfertilizerandpesticide
    use,environmentalregulatorycapacity,thenumberof
    EIAguidelinesandthepercentageofthreatenedspe-
    cies.Dataavailabilityonkeyissuesitselfisaformal
    componentoftheindex.
    SincetheWWDR3waspublishedin2009,anumber
    ofimportantglobalprocessesthatseektoidentify
    waterresourceissuesandinformwater-relatedpolicy
    decisionshavegainedmomentum.Oneexampleis
    thecollaborativeexerciseundertakenbytheUNCEO
    WaterMandategroup,includingtheWorldWildlife
    Fund(WWF).Itfocusedonencouragingitsmember
    companiestodevelopabetterunderstandingofhow
    theiroperationsusewater,bothintheirdirectopera-
    tionsandintheirsupplychains.TheWaterFootprint
    Network,aspinofofresearchintothevirtualwater
    tradebetweencountries,alsoencouragescompanies
    toknowandreducetheirwateruseandfootprint.
    1
    Atthenationallevel,FAOsAQUASTAT
    2
    collectsstatis-
    ticsanddataonwaterresourcesobtainedfromnation-
    alsources.Thesearesystematicallyreviewedtoen-
    sureconsistencyindenitionsandbetweencountries
    sharingthesameriverbasin.Acomparativeanalysis
    ofavailablecountrywaterresourcesdataisalsocar-
    riedoutatregularintervals.Onthisbasis,AQUASTAT
    compilesandupdatesitsbestestimatesofthemain
    elementsofthewaterbalanceforeachcountry.For
    Africa,AsiaandLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,
    WWDR4 FROMRAWDATATOINFORMEDDECISIONS
    BOX 6.1
    Informingtrade-ofs:WaterforelectricityinSouth
    Africa
    Inmostcountries,economicactivityandsocialstabilityde-
    pendonasufcientandreliablesupplyofelectricalpower.
    ThisisexplicitlystatedinSouthAfricasNationalWater
    ResourceStrategy,whichregardswateruseforelectricity
    generationasamatterofstrategicimportance.However,
    thestrategyspecicallystatesthatWaterusedesignated
    asbeingofstrategicimportancewillbesubjecttothesame
    efciencycriteriaandwaterdemandmanagementrequire-
    mentsasisappliedtootheruses.Drycoolingofpowersta-
    tionsshouldbeappliedwherefeasiblewhennewgenerat-
    ingcapacityisbuilt.(DWAF,2004,p.52)
    Performancemeasuredonthebasisofthewaterinten-
    sityofelectricitygeneration,rstsetasatargetin1970,
    hasbeenencouraging.Between1980and2006,national
    powerutilityESKOMreportedthatithaddecreasedits
    waterusefrom2.85LperkWhtoapproximately1.32L
    perkWh,largelybytheuseofdrycoolingratherthan
    watercoolingforitsinlandpowerstations.Thewater
    consumptionofitsnewest4,000megawattsMatimba
    PowerStation,whichclaimstobethelargestdirect-dry-
    cooledstationintheworld,isintheorderof0.1LperkWh
    (ESKOM,2009).
    Drycoolingcarriesnotjustasignicantcostpenaltybut
    alsohasclimateimplications,sincethehydrocarbonfuel
    useandCO
    2
    emissionsofdry-cooledpowerstationsare
    greaterthanthoseofwater-cooledones.However,given
    SouthAfricaswaterstress,thistrade-ofwasconsidered
    asacceptable,andtheuseofaconsistentindicatorover
    40yearshasenabledperformancetobetrackedand
    sustained.Currentelectricityplanningforeseesthatthe
    totaluseofwaterwillactuallydecline,evenaselectricity
    productionincreases,asmoreefcientpowerstationsand
    renewablesarebroughtintothegeneratingmixoverthe
    nextdecade.
    164
    Infulllingthismandate,JMPpublishesupdatedesti-
    mateseverytwoyearsontheuseofvarioustypesof
    drinkingwatersourcesandsanitationfacilitiesatna-
    tional,regionalandgloballevels.Itssuccessislargely
    duetotheattentionpaidtogeneratingthebasedata
    onwhichreportingisbased.
    Theseapproachesalldependonthepresenceofsuf-
    cient,comparableandreliablerawdataandprocessed
    towardstheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalrelatingto
    drinkingwaterandsanitation(MDG7,Target7c).The
    MDGindicatorsmeasureaccesstodrinkingwaterand
    basicsanitation:
    Proportionofpopulationusinganimproveddrink-
    ingwatersource
    Proportionofpopulationusinganimprovedsanita-
    tionfacility
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER6
    BOX 6.2
    Australianwateraccountingstandards
    Australiaisthedriestinhabitedcontinentandoneofthehighestpercapitausersofwaterintheworld.Communities,irriga-
    tors,businessesandenvironmentalgroupsareconstantlydebatingtheequitabledistributionofwater.Waterisafundamen-
    talresourceandascompetitionforitincreases,theneedtofullyandcomparablyaccountforhowitismanaged,maintained
    anddistributedtomeeteconomic,socialandenvironmentalneedsbecomesincreasinglyimportant.
    Inresponsetotheseissues,theCouncilofAustralianGovernmentsincorporatedadirectiveintotheNationalWaterInitiative
    (2004)todevelopwaterresourceaccounting.Thiswouldenablewaterinformationtobestandardized,compared,reconciled
    andaggregated.In2006,astocktakingreportrecommendedtheestablishmentofwateraccountingasadiscipline,similarto
    nancialaccounting,toserveexternalusersneedsaswellasthemanagementrequirementsofwaterbusinesses.
    Australiasapproachtowateraccountingisasystematicprocessofidentifying,recognizing,quantifying,reporting,assuring
    andpublishinginformationaboutwater,waterrightsorotherclaimstowater,andobligationsagainstthatwater.Unlikeother
    typesofwaterresourceaccountingthatcurrentlyexistinternationally,thedevelopmentofwateraccountinginAustraliais
    basedontheprinciplesofnancialaccounting,notstatistics,andfocusesonthevolumesofwaterratherthantheireconomic
    value.Inaddition,thepotentialaudienceisfargreaterduetothescalablesizeoftheentitybeingreportedon.
    TheroleofissuingwateraccountingstandardswasgiventotheBureauofMeteorology,whichcreatedanindependentadvi-
    soryboard,theWaterAccountingStandardsBoard,toassistintheirdevelopment.Between2007and2010,thisboardwith
    signicantsupportandassistancefromtheaccountingandhydrologyindustriesdevelopedandsuccessfullypilotedthe
    WaterAccountingConceptualFramework(WACF)andtheExposureDraftofAustralianWaterAccountingStandard1(ED
    AWAS1).Thesedocumentstogetherprovideaprinciples-basedapproachtothepreparationandpresentationofGeneral
    PurposeWaterAccountingReports(GPWAR).
    WaterAccountingReportsaimtoassistusersinmakingandevaluatingdecisionsabouttheallocationofwaterresources
    byprovidingacomparableandreliableapproachtoreporting,whilealsogivingwaterresourcemanagersanopportunityto
    demonstrateresponsiblestewardshipofapublicgood.Furthermore,theproductionofreportsisexpectedtoinstilpublicand
    investorcondenceinhowmuchwaterthereis,whohastherightstoit,andhowitisbeingused.
    Asinformationaboutwaterresourcesismademoreavailable,betterdecisionscanbemadeonabroadrangeofwater-relat-
    edmatters.Forinstancehowto:
    Distributetheresource
    lnvestinbetterquantifcationtechniquesorinfrastructure
    Decidewhereprivateenterprisecouldlocatenewoperationsthatrelyonwater
    Copewithanexpandingcommunityneedwhenadditionalwaterresourcesarerequired
    lnvestincompaniesexposedtosignifcantwaterrelatedoperatingrisk
    Whilesignicantprogresshasbeenmadeinthedevelopmentandadoptionofwateraccountingoverashortperiodoftime,
    thedisciplineisstillinitsinfancy.Intheend,itwillbeuserswhodeterminewhatinformationtheyrequiretobeabletomake
    andevaluatedecisionsabouttheallocationofresources.
    Note: For more information see www.bom.gov.au/water/wasb
    165
    processwillbetheprovisionoftechnicalassistanceor
    toolstofacilitatethiswork.
    6.3Stateofdataandinformation
    Themonitoringofwaterresourcesandtheiruserep-
    resentsanimmensechallenge,especiallygiventhe
    renewablenatureandgeneralcomplexityofwater
    resources,thevariabilityoftheirdistributionintime
    andspace,andthediferentformsinwhichtheyap-
    pear.Furthermore,thediversityofmonitoringobjec-
    tivesposesadditionalchallenges.Inaddition,thedata
    requiredtopopulatetheindicatorsareseldomsystem-
    aticallyorreliablyavailableatglobal,national,regional
    orbasinlevel.
    ThepaucityofdataisillustratedbyFigure6.1,which
    summarizesdataavailabilityinthecountriesofthe
    SouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity(SADC).
    Aparticularchallengeismaintainingaregularowof
    comparabledatathatcanbeusedtomonitortrendsin
    diferentparametersovertime.Whiledatagapshave
    oftenbeenpatchedbytheuseofmodels,thequality
    oftheinformationthenbecomesdependentonhaving
    sufcientelddatatocalibrateandgroundtruththe
    model.
    AWWAPExpertGrouponIMRconsideredtheavail-
    abilityofdataandtheactionsthatcouldbetakento
    enhancedataow.Onendingwastheexistenceof
    alimitedsetofkeydataitemsneededtocalculatea
    widerangeofdiferentindicators.Forexample,one
    keydataitemneededtocalculatethevaluesofmany
    nationallevelindicatorsistheTotalActualRenewable
    WaterResource(TARWR),whetheratthebasin,state,
    nationalorregionallevel.Inthepast,theTARWRhas
    informationaboutbothwaterresourcesandtheiruse.
    Inthisarea,too,thereareencouragingdevelopments.
    TheUNStatisticalDivisioncontinuestosupportmem-
    bercountriestodeveloptheirphysicalwateraccounts
    soastobetterunderstandwheretheirwatercomes
    fromandhowitisused.Meanwhile,atthenationallev-
    el,Australiawhichfacesseverepressuresfrom,and
    difcultchoicesabout,themanagementofitswater
    resourcesisdevelopingsophisticatedwateraccount-
    ingsystemstosupportdecision-making(Box6.2).
    In2007,stakeholdersofWWAPsoughttoproducea
    coregroupofindicatorstoaddresshigh-levelinfor-
    mationandpolicyobjectives.Inthelightofthechal-
    lengesfaced,WWAP,asoneofthethreeoperational
    programmesoftheUN-Waterconsortium,engagedin
    asystematicreviewofthediferentindicatorsrequired
    aswellasthedatachallengesthatneedtobead-
    dressedinordertoguideitsfuturework.
    InAugust2009,aWWAP-ledUN-WaterTaskForceon
    Indicators,MonitoringandReporting(IMR)presented
    itsoutputstoUN-Water.
    4
    TheTaskForcesoverarch-
    ingobjectivewastocontributetopublicinformation
    andinformeddecision-makinginthewaterandrelated
    sectors,includingsanitation,atglobalandnational
    levels,throughimprovedmonitoringandreporting.In
    particular,itaimedtosupportinternationalandna-
    tionaldecision-makersandadvancetheimplementa-
    tionofinternationallyagreed-upongoalsandtargets
    onwaterandsanitation.
    Thisinvolvedthedevelopmentofamethodologyfor
    monitoring,atregularintervals,thestateofwaterre-
    sourcesandtheiruse,aswellastheimpactofpolicy
    andmanagementinterventions,includingasetof
    measurableindicatorsthatsupportbothnationaldeci-
    sion-makersandtheinternationalcommunity.Asetof
    fteenindicatorswasproposed,withdetaileddescrip-
    tionsandmethodologiesforeachone.
    5
    Whiletheseindicatorsdonotallowforanin-depth
    analysisoftheissues,theyservetheirintendedpur-
    poseofinformingcivilsocietyofcriticalwateris-
    suesatthegloballevel.However,theIMRTaskForce
    notedthatthedevelopmentanduseofindicatorsisa
    dynamicprocessandthattheproposedlistisneither
    nalnorexhaustive.Rather,itwillevolveasknowledge
    anddataavailabilityimprove.Apreconditionforany
    robustindicatoriscollectionofaccurate,timelyand
    consistentdataatcountrylevel.Partofthisongoing
    WWDR4 FROMRAWDATATOINFORMEDDECISIONS
    Without actual use
    data, improvements
    in water productivity
    cannot be tracked,
    even if they are
    substantial.
    166
    indicators,haveresultedinexplicitrecognitionthatthe
    stationaryhydrologyassumptioncannolongerbeused
    asthebasisforhigh-levelreviewsofwateravailability.
    Thishasfocusedattentiononthelimitedavailabilityof
    globaldataonstreamows,onwhichestimatesofwa-
    terresourceavailabilityneedtobebased.Whilethere
    areagreatdealofavailabledataonprecipitation,which
    canbemeasuredbyremotesensing,changesinrunof
    toriversorrechargeofgroundwateraremuchharderto
    measure.Ingeneral,dataavailabilityisparticularlypoor
    forgroundwaterandwaterquality.
    Water-usedataareoftenevenmoredifculttoobtain
    thandataonthestateoftheresourcesthemselves.As
    anexample,dataareneededtoassesstheproductivity
    ofwater,intermsofGDPperunitofwaterused,toen-
    ablemonitoringofthepolicyobjectiveofdecoupling
    economicactivityfromresourceuse.Similarly,theef-
    ciencyofwateruseindiferentindustrialprocesses
    beencalculatedonthebasisofinformationcollected
    overa30-yearperiod(the19601990periodwasa
    widelyusedbenchmark).Importantindicators,suchas
    waterscarcity(TARWRpercapita)andwaterproduc-
    tivity(GDPperTARWR)arebasedonthesemeasures.
    However,theTARWRhasnotbeenroutinelymoni-
    toredandnomethodologyexistsforitssystematic
    updating.So,whileindicatorssuchasnationalwater
    scarcityhavechangedoverthepastdecade,these
    changeshaveusuallysimplyreectedchangesin
    underlyingpopulations.Changesinwateravailabil-
    ityhavenotbeensystematicallyrecordedandarenot
    generallyreectedinglobalwaterscarcitydata.The
    generalassumptionwasthathydrologyisstationary
    (seeChapters5,8and11).
    However,concernsaboutclimatechange,oneofthe
    factorsthathaveledtothegrowinginterestinwater
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER6
    FIGURE 6.1
    DashboardofdataavailabilityinSADCcountries
    Source: SADC (2010, table 4, p. vii).
    Surface and
    groundwater
    Infra-
    structure
    Water supply
    sources and
    returns to
    environment
    Water
    uses and
    allocation
    Wastewater Water
    efciency
    Water
    charges
    (tarifs, taxes,
    subsidles)
    GDP Water
    nancing and
    production
    costs
    Angola
    Botswana
    Democratic Republic
    of the Congo
    Southern
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mauritius
    Mozambique
    Namibia
    Seychelles
    South Africa
    Swasiland
    United Republic
    of Tanzania
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    Littleinformation
    Somebutlimitedinformation
    Substantialinformation
    Noresponsereceived
    167
    Inaddition,becausewaterresourcesareoftenshared
    betweenanumberofdiferentpoliticaljurisdictions,
    thereisoftenadisincentiveforupstreamcommuni-
    tiestoshareinformationaboutresourceavailability
    andusewithdownstreamjurisdictions,astheinforma-
    tionmaybeusedindisputesaboutthedivisionofthe
    resource.Itisalsocommonforprivatecompaniesto
    withholdandavoiddisclosureofinformationonwa-
    teravailabilityanduse,allegingthatthesedataareof
    strategicimportancefortheirbusinessactivities.
    Thisphenomenonisbestknowninriverbasinsshared
    betweencountries(aswithlargebasinssuchasthe
    GangesandtheMekong);however,similarlogicmay
    alsoapplyincountrieswithfederalsystemsofgovern-
    mentinwhichwaterresourcemanagementliesinthe
    mayusefullybemonitoredtodeterminetheefcacyof
    waterdemandmanagementprogrammes.Inpractice,
    however,wateruseisoftenestimatedusingstandard
    assumptionsofwaterconsumptioninspecicindus-
    tries.Withoutactualusedata,improvementsinwater
    productivitycannotbetracked,eveniftheyaresub-
    stantial.Theimpactsoftechnologicalprogressmay
    thusbemissedunlessdetailedsurveysarecarriedout
    intowaterusebyspecicsector.Similarly,thelackof
    knowledgeaboutwateruseinmanysectorsmeans
    thatopportunitiesandprioritiestopromotemoreef-
    cientuseofwatermaynotbeidentied.
    Theseexampleshighlighttheneedforgreaterfocuson
    datagenerationtoenablewatermanagerstomonitor
    thetrendsofmostconcerntopolicy-makers.
    6.4Constraintsonbettermonitoringand
    reporting
    6.4.1Institutionalandpoliticalconstraints
    Manyinstitutionalandpoliticalconstraintsinhibitbet-
    termonitoringandreportingofinformationonwater
    resourcesandtheiruse.Goodmanagementgenerates
    gooddata;poormanagementisfrequentlyaconse-
    quenceofpoordata,whilealsocontributingtothe
    broaderdatagap.
    Becauseoftherelativelylowvalueandwidedistri-
    butionofwater,itsuse,particularlyinirrigation,is
    usuallynotmeasureddirectly.Fromanoperational
    perspective,itisusuallymoreimportantinconditions
    ofscarcitytodecideontheprioritiesandproportion-
    atesharesforavailablewater,ratherthantomeasure
    exactquantities.Inmanyjurisdictions,wateralloca-
    tionsaremadeatdiferentlevelsofreliabilityfordif-
    ferentclassesofusertoavoiddetailedquantitative
    measurements.
    Furthermore,becausetheproductionofwaterisa
    naturalratherthanaman-madeprocess,thereislit-
    tlecertaintyinmostsituationsabouttheinitialsupply.
    Thisdistinguishesitfromotherutilityoperationsand
    naturalresourcecontexts.Forexample,inenergypro-
    ductionthequantityofcoaldeliveredfromaminetoa
    powerstationisknown;similarly,theamountofelec-
    tricitythatowsfromthepowerstationismeasured
    bythegeneratingcompanywhosesurvivaldepends
    onmeasuringandbillingitscustomersfortheenergy
    supplied.Withwaterresources,however,thereisno
    coal-burningoranyotherroutinemeasurementofthe
    amountofwaterthatowsintothesystem.
    WWDR4 FROMRAWDATATOINFORMEDDECISIONS
    BOX 6.3
    Waterresourceinformationforconictprevention
    inCentralAsia
    ThedissolutionoftheSovietUnionin1989createdanum-
    berofdifcultwaterresourcemanagementchallenges
    forthecountriesthatemerged.Beforehand,thecentral
    governmenthadtakendecisionsabouttheuseandshar-
    ingofwaterbetweenregions;afterwards,suchdecisions
    becametheprovinceofsovereigncountries,whichhave
    diferentcriteria.Asaresult,thepotentialexistsforcon-
    ictbetweenthem.Thisinturnhasbeenidentiedasa
    potentialrisk,andonethatcouldaggravateexistingcon-
    ictsinneighbouringcountries.Onesimpleresponseto
    this,identiedbytheUnitedStatesofAmerica,proposes
    theprovisionofbetterwaterresourceinformationasthe
    rstessentialstep:
    Providebenchmarkdatatoimprovewater
    management
    The countries in Central and South Asia, regardless of
    their level of development, lack publicly available ac-
    cess to consistent and comparable data on water sup-
    ply, ow and usage. This creates tension over the man-
    agement of water by both upstream and downstream
    countries. Providing basic technical information to all
    countries is a constructive way for the United States to
    help create a foundation for bona de discussion and
    debate over water management. The United States
    should support data-related activities specic to meas-
    uring and monitoring water ow and volume for key
    rivers and river basins. We should also promote techni-
    cal partnerships in the region to monitor glaciers, track
    shifts in monsoons, and model climatic changes across
    a range of water ow scenarios. (US Senate, 2011, p. 2)
    168
    Becausewateroccursinnaturalstructureswhosebe-
    haviouroftenvariesfromoneseasontothenext,meas-
    uringsimpleparameterssuchasowcanbeextremely
    expensive.Thecostofasinglerivergaugingstation
    foramedium-sizerivercaneasilyexceedUS$1million,
    andthecostsofongoingoperation,maintenanceand
    reportingcanbedifculttojustifyinpoorcountries
    wheresuchactivitiescompetewithbasicwatersupply
    forlimitedfunds,yetbringnoimmediatebenets.
    Oneimportantyetunderusedresourceisremotesens-
    ing.Asyet,ithasnotresultedinasignicantowof
    usefulprocessedinformationaboutwateranditsuse.
    Whilethedirectuseofwaterbyeldcropscannow
    bereliablyassessedusingremotelyaccesseddata,it
    ismoredifculttodeterminetheamountofwaterac-
    tuallyabstractedfromriversanddamstoirrigatethe
    elds.Thisisbecauseitisnotyetpossibletodeter-
    mineparameterssuchastheowofwaterinrivers
    fromremotelysensedinformation.Thismeansthata
    criticalindicatorcannotbeassessed:theefciency
    withwhichabstractedwaterisdeliveredtotheelds
    andactuallyusedforcropproduction.
    Itisalsopossibletoremotelymonitorwaterquality-
    relatedparameters,whichwouldassistmanagement
    challengessuchaseutrophicationandtheprotection
    ofnaturalecosystemssuchaswetlandsonasystem-
    aticbasis.Existingremote-sensingtechnologieshave
    anumberofimportantapplications;however,therela-
    tivelylowpriorityaccordedtowaterresourcemonitor-
    ingmeansthatthesearenotapplied.
    Whileremotesensingisprovingtobeausefultool,it
    willneversubstitutetheneedtogatherlocalinforma-
    tion.Usingremotesensingdatawithoutgroundtruth
    mayberiskyanditwouldbeill-advisedtosuggest
    thatgovernmentsnotspendonhydrometnetworks
    infavourofremotesensingdata.Remotesensingand
    hydrometmeasuringnetworksarenotmutuallyexclu-
    sive,andstrengtheninghydrometnetworksandservic-
    esisanecessaryconditionforproperwaterresources
    management,planning,designandoperation.
    6.5Improvingtheowofdataand
    information
    6.5.1Theemergingmarketforbetterdataand
    indicators
    WhileWWAPsmandateistocollateandreportavail-
    ableinformationonthestateofwaterresourcesand
    theiruseatagloballevel,ithasbecomeapparentthat
    handsofprovincialorstateadministrations,whichmay
    havesimilarmotivations.Thecorollaryisthatwherea
    potentialforconictexistsbetweenneighbours,ad-
    dressingthedatachallengemayconstituteanimpor-
    tantmechanismtomanagedisputes(Box6.3).
    6.4.2Denitionalissues:Performancemeasurement
    challenges
    Afurtherconstraintonimprovedmonitoringandre-
    portingisthelackofagreementonwhatshouldactu-
    allybemonitored.Forexample,theestablishmentof
    performancetargetswithefectivemeasuresisessen-
    tialtoachievingpolicygoalssuchassustainabledevel-
    opmentandtheMDGs,butthereisoftenuncertainty
    aboutwhatdataitemswillbestservethispurpose.
    Itisnecessarytoaddressthepotentialimpactsofde-
    cisionsneededwithinacostbenetanalysis.Criteria
    willbeneededtoguidetheselectionofmeasures.
    Thesewillincludeconsiderationssuchasthevalue
    ofecosystemservicesthatmakeoptimizationmore
    complex,butalsopotentiallymoreefective.Decision-
    supportsystemsareneededthatcombineclassical
    costbenetwithparticipatorymulti-criteriaanalyses,
    addressingdiferentlevelsofuncertainties.
    Toachieveabalancedallocationandtheprotectionof
    waterresources,indicatorsshouldsupportcarefully
    designedandselectedpolicyinstruments.Theymay
    includeregulations(technicalstandards,performance
    standards,etc.),quotas,accessrulesandallocation
    procedures,aswellaseconomicinstruments(espe-
    ciallypricingmechanismsandpaymentsforecosystem
    services).
    Whileeconomictheorysuggeststhatpricingpolicies
    maybeusefulforachievingtargets,inpractice,prices
    serveseveralconictingpurposes:nancingofwater
    service-relatedinfrastructure,incentivesforefcient
    useofscarceresources,andfairnessanddistribution-
    aljustice(seeChapter10).Simplymonitoringwater
    pricesdoesnotnecessarilyprovideausefulindica-
    tionofpolicysuccess,unlessitisdoneinamanner
    thatreectsthereal-lifeobjectivesofimprovedwater
    management.
    6.4.3Technicalandnancialconstraints
    Inadditiontothepoliticalandinstitutionalbarriers
    tothegenerationandreportingofwaterresource
    availabilityanduseinformation,therearealsosub-
    stantialtechnicalandnancialconstraints.
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER6
    169
    Specically,theypledgedactiontoworkonunifying
    waterdatacollection,managementanddisclosureap-
    proachesforbusiness(Box6.4).
    Therearemanyotherinitiativesunderway.The
    WorldBusinessCouncilonSustainableDevelopment
    (WBCSD)hasproducedawatertooltohelpbusiness
    tomonitoritsuseofandimpactonwatermoresys-
    tematically.TheWaterFootprintNetworksimilarlyen-
    couragesbusinesses,theircustomersandotherstake-
    holderstobecomemoreawareofthewatercontentof
    theirproductsandoperations(Hoekstraetal.,2011).
    Thereisimplicitcompetitionbetweenthesediferent
    approaches,withonefocusingspecicallyoncorpo-
    ratewaterusewhileothersseektoengageandunder-
    standtheresourceinitscatchmentcontext:beyond
    thefactoryfence.However,bothapproachestomoni-
    toringandevaluatingthestateofwaterresourcesand
    theiruseareefectiveinthattheydependontheavail-
    abilityofsufcientdatatodrawwell-substantiated
    conclusions.
    Theinterestfromgovernmentsandcorporatewater
    usersisalsobeginningtobecomplementedbyan
    interestfromthebroaderpublic.Civilsocietyorgani-
    zationssuchastheWorldResourcesInstitutehavein-
    cludedaccesstoinformationaboutwaterresourcesin
    theiroverallprogrammetopromotegreaterpublicac-
    cesstoenvironmentalinformationaprogrammethat
    hastraditionallyfocusedonmorecontentiousnatural
    resourcessuchasminerals,landandforests.
    6
    dataconstraintsarelimitingtheprogrammesabil-
    itytodothis,specicallyinrelationtothesystematic
    monitoringofimportanttrends.Inordertocarryout
    itsmandateefectively,itmustthereforeidentifythe
    datarequirementstoenablethetrackingofkeypolicy
    goalsandemergingchanges,andtosupportefortsto
    implementmonitoringsystemsthatcangeneratethe
    datarequired.
    Themostefectivedriverofefortstoimprovetheow
    ofinformationaboutwaterwouldbedemandsforinfor-
    mationonthepartofpolicy-makersanddecision-mak-
    ersinthesocio-economicsectorsofactivity.Thereare,
    however,encouragingsignsthatmoreattentionisbeing
    paidtotheneedtogeneratebetterdataowstosup-
    portthemonitoringofwaterresourcesandtheiruse.
    Fromagovernmentperspective,economicpolicy-
    makersnowrecognizethatwaterasaresourcehasan
    importantinuenceonnationaleconomies,whichis
    largelyunaccountedfor.Asaresult,thereisagrow-
    inginterestinwateraccountinginparallelwithbroader
    environmentalaccounting.TheinitiativesoftheUN
    SystemofEnvironmental-EconomicAccountingfor
    Water(SEEAW)andEurostatareparticularlysigni-
    cantinthisregard,asaretherecentefortsofOECD.
    Theimportanceofwaterresourcedatafornationaland
    regionalsecurityisdemonstratedbytheexamplefrom
    CentralAsia,citedabove.Andasthebusinesssector
    turnsitsattentiontomanagingtherisksposedbywa-
    ter,ithasfoundthatthedatadrought(IBM,2009,p.
    10)addstoexistinguncertainties.
    Animportantinitiativefromtheperspectiveofbusi-
    nessistheUNGlobalCompactCEOWaterMandate.
    Establishedin2007,itrecognizedthatemergingcrises
    inwaterservicesandwaterresourcesposedarange
    ofriskstotheprivatesectoraswellasopportuni-
    ties.Italsorecognizedthatcurrentwatermanagement
    practicesareinadequategiventheincreasingmateri-
    alityandimportanceofwaterasaresource.Mandate
    membersacknowledgethat,inordertooperateina
    moresustainablemanner,theyhavearesponsibilityto
    makewaterresourcesmanagementapriority,andto
    workwithgovernments,UNagencies,NGOsandother
    stakeholderstoaddressthisglobalwaterchallenge.
    Theyhavealsoturnedtheirattentiontothechallenge
    ofdataavailability.Linkedtothis,businessleaders
    attheWorldEconomicForumin2009issuedacall
    toactiontoraiseawarenessaboutwaterchallenges.
    WWDR4 FROMRAWDATATOINFORMEDDECISIONS
    From a government
    perspective, economic
    policy-makers now
    recognize that water
    as a resource has an
    important inuence on
    national economies,
    which is largely
    unaccounted for.
    170
    playarole;forexample,dataaboutsignalattenua-
    tionbetweenmobilephonetowerscanhelptomake
    accurateestimatesofprecipitation,whichmeansthat
    telecommunicationsserviceproviderscanhelptoll
    datagaps.Anotherpotentiallymoresignicantde-
    velopmentisthedeploymentoftheGRACEfamilyof
    satellites,whichhaveenabledtheapplicationofre-
    motegravimetricmeasurementtodeterminechang-
    esinthetotalwaterstockinspecicgeographical
    areas.Althoughstillonlyexperimentalandworking
    atalargescale,thistechnologyhasalreadydemon-
    stratedthepotentialtomonitorchanginggroundwa-
    terreservesinlargealluvialbasins.Thisisofsubstan-
    tialpolicyinterestgiventhedangersofdepletionthat
    theseresourcesface.
    OnepilotinitiativeofWWAPisacollaborationtopro-
    duceadynamicestimateofthebasicdataitem,the
    TARWR(TotalActualRenewableWaterResources).The
    Itwouldthusappearthat,aftermanydecadesofde-
    cline,themarketforwater-relateddatamaybegrow-
    ingandbecomingdemand-drivenratherthansupply-
    driven.Thissuggeststhattherearenowsignicant
    opportunitiesfortheglobalcommunityofwaterprac-
    titioners,aswellaswaterusersandthemuchbroader
    communitythathasastakeinwater,tomakesub-
    stantialimprovementsintheavailabilityandquality
    ofinformationabouttheresource.Moreover,thenew
    focusonmonitoringwaterresourcesishelpingtoraise
    awarenessamongabroadercommunityaboutthecur-
    rentlimitationsofavailableinformation.
    6.5.2Technologicalopportunityanddatainnovation
    Technologyisalsomakingacontribution.Oneex-
    ampleisthedevelopmentoftechniquesthatenable
    evapotranspirationfromcropstobemeasureddirect-
    lyatavarietyofscales,includingbyremotesensing
    (Hellegersetal.,2009).Newpartnershipsmayalso
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER6
    BOX 6.4
    Dataasagatewaytoprogressforsustainablewatermanagement
    Atthe2009WorldEconomicForum(WEF),dataandinformationwasidentiedasakeyarearequiringmoreattention.Why
    istheissueimportant?
    Watersecurityandpollutioninwater-stressedcountriesisagrowingconcernformanycompanies,especiallyinthepower,
    mining,foodandbeverage,andsemi-conductorsectors.Thelastfewyearshaveseenaplethoraofreportsfrombusiness
    associations,nancialanalystsandcompaniesonthestrategicimportanceofwatersecurity.TheUNGlobalCompactCEO
    WaterMandateisagoodexampleofthisemergingtrend.
    Companieswillincreasinglybeaskedtoprovidedetailsoftheirwater-relatedriskstoinvestorsandtheirwater-useefciency
    measurestothepublic.Theywillalsobeattractedtocountrieswithsoundwatermanagementpolicies.Watersecurityrisks
    aredifcultforbusinessesandinvestorstoassess,duebothtopoorinformationaboutunderlyingsupplyconditionsandin-
    adequateandirregularreportinganddisclosurepracticesbyindividualcompanies(Levinsonetal.,2008).
    Quantitative indicators make it possible to spot problems, track trends, identify leaders and laggards, and highlight best
    management practices What is shocking is how little water data is available on a methodologically consistent basis across
    countries. Much of the existing water data has been collected without regard to cross-country comparisons. (Daniel C. Esty,
    Director, Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, US, cited in WEF, 2009, p. 12)
    Thereisalsoaneedforbetterdataatcountrylevel.AparticipativesessiononIndiaconcludedthatoneoftheobstaclesto
    implementingpotentialsolutionstothecountryswaterproblemswasthelackofunderstandingandawarenessoftheissue:
    Participants strongly agreed that water security is already a critical issue for India as the problem becomes more visible, but
    the sense of urgency has yet to percolate through to the general public and political leaders. Better quality of data and data
    transparency through an independent authority or group may help provide further insight into the situation.
    Data, Transparency and Analytics: The impact of the water problem will need to be quantied by diferent stakeholders so
    that they can understand the extent of the problem. Additional analytics need to be produced by independent actors that
    will help or pressure governments and other stakeholders into action (such as additional water metrics/index/benchmark-
    ing tools/water footprint). (WEF, 2009, p. 52)
    171
    AsmentionedinSection6.4.3,thereareanumberof
    otherareasinwhichremotesensingmaybeharnessed
    toimprovethequalityofinformationaboutcritical
    waterresourceparameters,notablywaterqualityand
    environmentalprotection.Furtherworkinthesear-
    eascouldalsoproducemethodologiestoenablethe
    systematicmonitoringofglobaltrendsin,forexam-
    ple,eutrophicationofwaterbodiesandchangesin
    wetlandextent.However,asmentionedearlier,using
    remotesensingdatawithoutgroundtruthmaybe
    riskyandwillneverbeasubstituteforgatheringlocal
    information.
    TARWRisusedasavariableinmanykeyindicators,but
    iscurrentlyonlyavailableonastaticbasis,largelybased
    onestimatesofriverowsfortheperiod19601990.
    Thekeyinnovationistobasetheestimateofavail-
    ablewateronacombinationofobservedhydro-mete-
    orologicalandsurfaceelevationdataandtoproduce
    long-termmovingaverages.Thisapproachwillmove
    awayfromtheconstraintsofstationaryhydrologyand
    permittheidenticationoftrendsinTARWR.Although
    theapproachstillhastobefurtherdeveloped,itsob-
    servationalbasisanddynamicnaturestronglyindicate
    thatitcouldbecometheprimarypointofreferencefor
    nationalwateravailability(Box6.5).
    WWDR4 FROMRAWDATATOINFORMEDDECISIONS
    BOX 6.5
    WWAPsdynamicTARWRpilotinitiativewithCUNYandGWSP
    WWAPspilotinitiativeisacollaborationwiththeCityUniversityofNewYork(CUNY)andtheGlobalWaterSystemProject
    (GWSP)toproduceadynamicestimateofthebasicdataitem,theTARWR(TotalActualRenewableWaterResources).
    TARWRisthefundamentalmeasureofwaterresourceavailability(inacountry,riverbasinorregion)andisusedinmany
    indicators.Itisdenedasthemaximumtheoreticalamountofwateractuallyavailableforthecountry(orotherunit),calcu-
    latedfrom:
    Sourcesofwaterwithinacountryitself
    Waterfowingintoacountry
    Waterfowingoutofacountrytreatycommitments
    Availabilitydefnedasthesurfaceandgroundwaterresourcevolumerenewedeachyearineachcountrymeansthe
    amountofwatertheoreticallyavailableforuseonasustainablebasis.Inmorespecicterms,TARWRisthesumof:
    Externalwaterresourcesenteringthecountry
    SurfacewaterrunofSWAPvolumesgeneratedinthecountry
    CroundwaterrechargeCAPtakingplaceinthecountry
    Less:
    1hevolumeinthecountryofthetotalresourceefectivelysharedasitinteractsandfowsthroughboththegroundwa-
    terandsurfacewatersystems;nottosubtractthisvolumewouldresultinitsbeingcountedtwice(itisalsoreferredto
    asoverlap).
    1hevolumethatfowstodownstreamcountriesbasedonformalorinformalagreementsortreaties
    TheWWAPPilotStudyonIndicators(PSI)isbeingundertakenattheCUNYbyCharlesVrsmartyinpartnershipwiththe
    GlobalTerrestrialNetworkforHydrology(GTN-H)andGEO/IGWCO(WaterCommunityofPractice),withsupportfromthe
    USArmyCorpsofEngineers(USACE).Thegrouphasdevelopedaninnovativemethodologyforestimatingcountry-level
    TARWR.Thisapproachisbasedon(butnotlimitedto)acombinationofhydro-meteorologicalandhigh-resolution(6minute
    rivernetworkandESRIcountryboundaries)surfaceelevationdata,whichwillallowtheidenticationofTARWRtrends(e.g.
    ifcertaincountriesaregettingwetterordryer)andvariability(e.g.variationofwatersupplyfromoneyeartothenext).
    ThisdynamicTARWRisusedtoproduceanalternativesetofcountriespercapitawateravailability.Thisdataitemwillbe
    furtherdeveloped.Givenitsobservationalbasisanddynamicnature,itishopedthatitwilleventuallybecometheprimary
    pointofreference,asitenableslonger-termvariationsinwateravailabilitytobetrackedovertime.Thiswillovercomesome
    ofthecurrentconstraintsimposedbytheassumptionofstationaryhydrology,whichisconsideredtobeinappropriateinthe
    faceofclimateandrelatedchallenges
    ThepresentTARWRseriesisproducedbytheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)sAQUASTAT
    programme(TARWR-FAO,2003).Itiscomputedonthebasisofavailablecountrywaterresourcesdatasheetsandcountry
    waterbalancecomputationalspreadsheets.FAOreferstothedataastheBestEstimateandupdatesthedatawhenfurther
    informationisprovided.
    172
    However,theseglobalapproachesarecomplement-
    ed,ifnotfedintermsofdata,bynationallevelap-
    proaches,supportedbyemergingefortstopromote
    nationalwateraccounting.Thesetooreectdifer-
    entapproaches.Forexample,whiletheUNSystem
    ofEnvironmental-EconomicAccountingforWater
    (SEEAW)smodelsystemseekstoaddressquantity
    (andtoalesserextent,quality),ananciallybasedap-
    proachisbeingtakentowateraccountinginAustralia,
    althoughthisfacessignicantchallengestomanage
    theimpactsofdramaticvariabilityonthenational
    economyandsociety.Asalreadyindicated,similardi-
    versityisapparentintheefortsofthebusinesscom-
    munityfocusingeitheronthespecicwaterfootprint
    ofindividualbusinessenterprisesorthebroaderdy-
    namicsofwaterresourcesandtheirusebeyondthe
    factoryfence.Thisdiversityofapproachescouldbe
    seentoreectconfusion.However,itshouldbeun-
    derstoodasanimportantandencouragingindicator
    oftherenewedglobalinterestinthestateofwaterre-
    sources,theirmanagementanduse.

    Notes
    1 Areviewofthediferentapproachesandtheirimplicationsis
    containedinMuller(forthcoming2012).
    2 Seehttp://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm
    3 Formoreinformationseehttp://www.wssinfo.org/
    about-the-jmp/introduction/
    4 Formoreinformationseehttp://www.unesco.org/new/en/
    natural-sciences/environment/water/wwap/indicators/
    un-water-tf-on-imr/
    5 Formoreinformationseehttp://www.unwater.org/indicators.html
    6 Formoreinformationseehttp://www.accessinitiative.org/
    tai-global-meeting-2008/node/1

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    Hellegers,P.J.G.J.,Soppe,R.,Perry,C.J.andBastiaanssen,
    W.G.M.2009.Remotesensingandeconomicindicators
    forsupportingwaterresourcesmanagementdecisions.
    Water Resource Management,24December.
    Hoekstra,A.Y.,Chapagain,A.K.,Aldaya,M.M.and
    Mekonnen,M.M.2011.The Water Footprint Assessment
    Manual: Setting the Global Standard.London,Earthscan.
    IBM.2009.Water: A Global Innovation Outlook Report.
    Armonk,NY,IBMCorporation.http://www.ibm.com/ibm/.../
    ibm_gio_water_report.pdf
    Levinson,M.,Lee,E.,Chung,J.,Huttner,M.,Danely,C.,
    McKnight,C.andLanglois,A.withKlop,P.andWellington,
    F.2008.Watching Water: A Guide to Evaluating Corporate
    Risks in a Thirsty World.NewYork,JPMorganSecuritiesInc.
    Muller,M.(forthcoming2012).Wateraccounting,corporate
    sustainabilityandthepublicinterest.J.M.GodfreyandK.
    Chalmers(eds)International Water Accounting: Efective
    Management of a Scarce Resource. London,EdwardElgar.
    OECD(OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationand
    Development).2001.Environmental Strategy for the First
    Decade of the 21st Century.Paris,OECD.
    SADC(SouthAfricanDevelopmentCommunity).2010.
    Economic Accounting of Water Use Project: Baseline Study
    Report ACP-EUWaterFacility,GrantNo.9ACPRPR3990.
    SADC.
    WWDR4 FROMRAWDATATOINFORMEDDECISIONS
    CHAPTER30 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES 174

    Authors JaneBarr,SimoneGrego,ErumHassan,MadiodioNiasse,
    WalterRastandJoanaTalafr
    Contributor RichardConnor
    CHAPTER 7
    Regional challenges, global impacts
    Shutterstock/diak

    For the rst time in the World Water Development Report series, this fourth edition reports
    at a regional level on the status of water resources, their uses and management through the
    introduction of ve regional reports (in Part 3/Volume 2) and their respective summaries in
    this chapter. The regional reports cover:
    Lorcearccrh/nerica
    /siaarcheacic
    Lair/nericaarcheCariLLear
    /rica
    /raLarcVeserr/siare_icr
    The delineation of the ve regions follows the regional division of the United Nations regional
    economic commissions (UNECE, UNECA, UNESCWA, UNECLAC and UNESCAP; maps
    of the Member States are provided in the corresponding sections of this chapter), with
    the exception of the reports on Africa and the Arab and Western Asia region. For these
    two reports, it was decided (in agreement with UNECA and UNESCWA) that all the Arab
    countries would be reported on in a broad Arab and Western Asia report, rather than having
    some of them included in the Africa report and others in the Western Asia report. Each
    regional report was prepared by the corresponding regional economic commission, with the
    exception of the Africa report, which was prepared by WWAP in consultation with UN Water/
    Africa, the African Ministers Council on Water (AMCOW) and UNECA.
    The regional reports highlight the main issues the regions are facing today, and how they
    have been changing over recent years. Each report lists the most important external drivers
    for the region, analyzing the resulting pressures and efects the drivers have on water
    resources, their uses and management. In line with the main theme of the WWDR4, the
    principal risks and uncertainties and opportunities related to the regions are reported, as well
    as geographic hotspots and sectoral issues of particular concern. Findings are supported
    by specic examples. Response options are provided to help the decision-makers identify
    solutions to their specic issues.
    In this chapter a summary of each of the regional reports (Chapters 29 to 33) is provided.
    The chapter closes with an examination of the inter-linkages between diferent regions and
    global challenges, which describes how actions in one part of the world can create negative
    impacts, as well as opportunities, in others.
    176 STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES
    Morocco,Sudan,SouthSudanandTunisia,whichare
    coveredinSection7.5,ArabandWesternAsiaRegion.
    Inotherwords,theAfricaregionheremoreorless
    correspondstothepoliticaldenitionofsub-Saharan
    Africa.Thisregionhasatotalareaof24millionkm
    2
    ,
    7.1Africa
    Map7.1showstheUNECAmembercountries;howev-
    er,forthepurposesofthischapter,theAfricaregion
    comprises46countriesandexcludesthenorthernmost
    countriesofAlgeria,Djibouti,Egypt,Libya,Mauritania,
    CHAPTER7
    MAP 7.1
    UNECAMemberStates
    Source: Economic Commission of Africa, Map No. 3975 Rev.8, November 2011. Department of Field Support, Cartographic Section, United
    Nations.
    Note: The region is divided into subregions as follows.
    Northern: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.
    Sudano-Sahelian: Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan.
    Gulf of Guinea: Benin, Cte dIvoire, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Togo.
    Central: Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equitorial Guinea, Gabon, Sao Tome and
    Principe.
    Eastern: Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania.
    Southern: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
    Indian Ocean Islands: Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles.
    Rabat
    Algiers
    Tunis
    Tripoli
    Cairo
    Khartoum
    Asmara
    Djibouti
    Mogadishu
    Nairobi
    Kampala
    Dar es Salaam
    Kigali
    Bujumbura
    Lilongwe
    Harare
    Lusaka
    Maputo
    Antananarivo
    Port Louis
    Moroni
    Victoria
    Windhoek Gaborone
    Luanda
    Maseru
    Pretoria
    Bloemfontein
    Mbabane
    Kinshasa
    Brazzaville
    Cape Town
    Yaound
    Malabo
    Abuja
    Libreville
    Abidjan
    Monrovia
    Accra
    Bamako
    Ouagadougou
    Niamey
    Nouakchott
    Dakar
    Praia
    Banjul
    Bissau
    Conakry
    Freetown
    N'Djamena
    Bangui
    L
    o
    m

    P
    o
    r
    t
    o
    -
    N
    o
    v
    o

    SENEGAL
    S

    o
    T
    o
    m

    Juba
    Addis Ababa
    ECA HQ
    ALGERIA
    MAURITANIA
    NIGER MALI
    SUDAN
    EGYPT
    LIBYA
    CHAD
    ETHIOPIA
    DEMOCRATIC
    REPUBLIC OF THE
    CONGO
    UNITED REPUBLIC
    OF
    TANZANIA
    ANGOLA
    ANGOLA
    NAMIBIA
    KENYA
    UGANDA
    RWANDA
    BURUNDI
    LESOTHO
    SWAZILAND
    CENTRAL AFRICAN
    REPUBLIC
    GABON
    CAMEROON
    NIGERIA
    SOUTH
    AFRICA
    BOTSWANA
    ZAMBIA
    ZIMBABWE
    M
    O
    Z
    A
    M
    B
    I
    Q
    U
    E

    M
    A
    D
    A
    G
    A
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    C
    A
    R

    SEYCHELLES
    MAURITIUS
    COMOROS
    CAPE
    VERDE
    S
    O
    M
    A
    L
    I
    A
    DJIBOUTI
    ERITREA
    CTE
    D'IVOIRE
    LIBERIA
    BURKINA
    FASO
    GUINEA
    SIERRA
    LEONE
    GAMBIA
    GUINEA
    BISSAU G
    H
    A
    N
    A

    B
    E
    N
    I
    N

    T
    O
    G
    O

    SAO TOME
    AND PRINCIPE
    EQUATORIAL
    GUINEA
    TUNISIA
    MOROCCO
    Western
    Sahara
    MALAWI
    C
    O
    N
    G
    O

    SOUTH
    SUDAN
    Socotra
    Aldabra Is.
    Pemba
    Zanzibar
    Reunion
    St. Helena
    Canary Is.
    Azores
    Madeira Is.
    A T L A N T I C O C E A N
    I NDI AN OCEAN
    R
    e
    d

    S
    e
    a

    Gulf of Aden
    L. Victoria
    L. Malawi
    L. Tanganyika
    M
    e
    d
    i t e r r a n e a n S e a
    0
    0 500 1000 1500 2000 km
    500 1000 mi
    Capital city
    ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA
    Algeria
    Angola
    Benin
    Botswana
    Burkina Faso
    Burundi
    Cameroon
    Cape Verde
    Central African Republic
    Chad
    Comoros
    Congo
    Cte d'Ivoire
    Democratic Republic
    of the Congo
    Djibouti
    Egypt
    Equatorial Guinea
    Eritrea
    Ethiopia
    Gabon
    Gambia
    Ghana
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Kenya
    Lesotho
    Liberia
    Libya
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Mauritius
    Morocco
    Mozambique
    Namibia
    Niger
    Nigeria
    Rwanda
    Sao Tome and Principe
    Senegal
    Seychelles
    Sierra Leone
    Somalia
    South Africa
    South Sudan
    Sudan
    Swaziland
    Togo
    Tunisia
    Uganda
    United Republic of Tanzania
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    Members:
    Final boundary between the Republic of Sudan and the
    Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined.
    The boundaries and names shown and the designations
    used on this map do not imply official endorsement or
    acceptance by the United Nations.
    177 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    demographic,economic,politicalandclimaticenviron-
    mentsandtheirimpactonwaterresourcesandwater
    demands.
    Demographics
    Africasrisingpopulationisdrivingdemandforwaterand
    acceleratingthedegradationofwaterresourcesinmany
    countries.Bymid-2011,Africaspopulation(againexclud-
    ingthenorthernmoststates)wasabout838millionand
    itsaveragenaturalrateofincreasewas2.6%perannum,
    comparedtotheworldaverageof1.2%.Accordingtoone
    estimate,itspopulationwillgrowto1,245millionby2025
    andto2,069millionby2050(PRB,2011).
    Anestimated61%ofAfricansliveinruralareas,ex-
    ceedingtheworldaverageof50%,andtheaverage
    populationdensityis29peoplepersquarekilome-
    tre.Urbanpopulationgrewat3.4%between2005
    and2010,whichis1.1%fasterthantheruralpopulation
    growthrate(UNEP,2010b).Theurbanslumpopula-
    tioninsub-SaharanAfricancountriesisexpectedto
    doubletoaround400millionby2020,ifgovernments
    donottakeimmediateandradicalaction(UN-Habitat,
    2005).However,sinceremainingexibleisasurvival
    strategy,urbanslumpopulationsarehighlymobileand
    numbersaredifculttoassess.Itisclear,though,that
    improvementsarenotkeepingpacewiththerapid
    growthofsub-Saharanslumpopulations(UN-Habitat,
    2010).Thisrapidandpoorlymanagedgrowthofurban
    areas,especiallyinperi-urbanslums,hasoverwhelmed
    mostmunicipalwaterservicesandconstitutesamajor
    challengetowaterandsanitationdevelopment.
    Ontheotherhand,populationgrowthisstabilizing:
    therehasbeenaprogressivereductioninthegrowth
    ratefromabout2.8%in19901995toaprojectedvalue
    ofabout2.3%in20102015(FAO,2005).Thistrend,
    coupledwithincreasingeconomicgrowth,islikelyto
    contributetoincreasedsocio-economicdevelopment,
    includingbetterwatermanagementandtheprovision
    ofwater-relatedservices.
    Economic development and poverty
    Sub-SaharanAfricaistheworldspoorestandleast-
    developedregion,withhalfitspopulationlivingonless
    thanadollaraday.Abouttwo-thirdsofitscountries
    rankamongthelowestintheHumanDevelopment
    Index(FAO,2008).Evenwhenopportunitiesexistto
    addressoutstandingwaterissues,deepandwide-
    spreadpovertyacrosstheAfricanregionconstrains
    theabilityofmanycitiesandcommunitiestoprovide
    whichrepresentsabout18%oftheworldslandmass
    (FAO,2008).Africasclimateisinuencedbythe
    equator,thetwotropicsanditstwomajordeserts:the
    SaharainthenorthernhemisphereandtheKalahari
    inthesouthernhemisphere.Rainfalldistributionisex-
    tremelyuneven,bothspatiallyandtemporally,which
    hasmajorimplicationsforlivelihoodsandhumanwell-
    beingonthecontinent(FAO,2005).
    Waterscrucialroleinaccomplishingthecontinents
    developmentgoalsiswidelyrecognized.Africafaces
    endemicpoverty,foodinsecurityandpervasiveun-
    derdevelopment,withalmostallcountrieslackingthe
    human,economicandinstitutionalcapacitiestoef-
    fectivelydevelopandmanagetheirwaterresources
    sustainably.Sub-SaharanAfricausesbarely5%ofits
    annualrenewablefreshwater.Yetaccesstoimproved
    watersupplies,inbothurbanandruralcontexts,isstill
    thelowestintheworld.Mostcountriesdonottake
    fulladvantageofavailablearablelandsforagricultural
    productionandirrigationexpansion,andhydroelec-
    tricityisunderdevelopedinmostplaces.TheEconomic
    CommissionforAfricanotesthatthekeyissuesin
    AfricaareinvestinginthedevelopmentofAfricaspo-
    tentialwaterresources,reducingdrasticallythenum-
    berofpeoplewithoutaccesstosafewaterandad-
    equatesanitation,ensuringfoodsecuritybyexpanding
    irrigationareasandprotectingthegainsofeconomic
    developmentbyefectivelymanagingdroughts,oods
    anddesertication(NEPAD,2006,2).
    AfricaWaterVision2025hasbeenadoptedby
    Africangovernments,theNewPartnershipforAfricas
    DevelopmentandtheAfricanUnion.Thisisevidence
    ofanewfocusonwaterand,potentially,better-target-
    edinvestmentandmoreefcientwatermanagement.
    AfricaWaterVision2025callsforenhancedinstitu-
    tionalframeworksforthestrategicadoptionofthe
    principlesofintegratedwaterresourcesmanagement
    (IWRM).MostAfricancountrieshaveadoptedIWRM
    asthebasisforwatergovernanceandmanagement.
    Internationalwaterpolicyrecommendationscontinue
    toplayaninvaluableanddecisiverole.
    7.1.1Thedrivingforcesandpressuresonwater
    resources
    Highpopulationgrowth,povertyandunderdevelop-
    mentarekeydriversafectinghowwaterismanaged
    intheregion.Thedevelopmentofdrinkingwaterand
    sanitationprogrammesandotherwatersectoractivi-
    tiesinAfricaneedtotakeintoaccounttheprevailing
    178
    rainwater,withanestimatedtotalaverageannualpre-
    cipitationof815mm(FAO,2008),butitishighlysea-
    sonal,unevenlydistributedacrosstheregion(Table7.1)
    andtherearefrequentoodsanddroughts.Thegreat-
    estamountofrainfalloccursalongtheequator,espe-
    ciallyintheareafromtheNigerDeltatotheCongo
    Riverbasin.TheSaharaDeserthasvirtuallynorainfall.
    InwesternandcentralAfrica,rainfallisexceptionally
    variableandunpredictable.
    Atthecontinentallevel,renewablewaterresourcescon-
    stituteonlyabout20%ofthetotalrainfallandrepresent
    lessthan9%ofglobalrenewableresources(FAO,2005).
    Internalrenewablewaterresourcesperpersoninsub-Sa-
    haranAfricafellfromanaverageofmorethan16,500m
    3

    perinhabitantin1960toabout5,500m
    3
    perinhabitant
    in2005.Thiswaslargelyasaresultofpopulationgrowth
    (FAO,2008).Groundwaterrepresents15%oftotalre-
    newableresources,butanestimated75%ormoreofthe
    Africanpopulationusesgroundwaterastheirmainsource
    ofdrinkingwater(UNEP,2010b).Becauserenewable
    resourcesareinshortsupply,capturingandstoringpre-
    cipitationisimportant.Moreimportantly,thelowvolumes
    ofrenewableresourcespartlyaccountfortheendemic
    droughtinareasofthecontinent.Althoughlackofaccess
    towaterismainlyafunctionofeconomicscarcity(see
    Section4.6.1andFigure4.10),signicantvariationsboth
    betweenandwithinsubregionsalsocontributetothelow
    averagepercapitawaterwithdrawalsof247m
    3
    peryear.
    (FAO,2005).
    About66%ofAfricaisaridorsemi-aridandmorethan
    300ofthe800millionpeopleinsub-SaharanAfrica
    properwaterandsanitationservices,sufcientwater
    foreconomicactivitiesandtopreventwaterquality
    fromdeteriorating(UNEP,2010b).
    Far-reachingeconomicreformsadoptedacrossthe
    continenthavebeguntoyieldpositiveresultsinmany
    countries.Negativetrendsingrossdomesticprod-
    uct(GDP)havegivenwaytoprogressivelyincreasing
    growth,averagingaroundthemeangurefordevelop-
    ingcountries.AnalysisbytheEconomistrevealsthatin
    thetenyearsupto2010,sixoftheworldstenfastest-
    growingeconomieswereinsub-SaharanAfrica(The
    Economist,2011).Nevertheless,averagepercapitaGDP
    growthinAfricaremainsfarbelowallotherregions.
    TheeconomiesofmostAfricancountriesdepend
    largelyonrainfedagricultureasthemajordriverof
    economicgrowth.Itrepresentsabout20%ofthere-
    gionsGDP,60%ofitsworkforce,20%ofitsexport
    goods,and90%ofruralincomes.Agricultureisbyfar
    thelargestuserofwater,accountingforabout87%of
    totalwaterwithdrawals(FAO,2008).Investinginag-
    riculture,andespeciallyinirrigatedfarming,isatleast
    fourtimesasefectiveatraisingpoorpeoplesincomes
    asisinvestmentinothersectors(UNEP,2010b).
    7.1.2Challenges,risksanduncertainties
    Hydrological variability
    Africasclimateischaracterizedbyextremes,froma
    humidequatorialclimateattheequator,throughtropi-
    calandsemi-aridinthemiddleoftheregion,toan
    aridclimatetowardsthenorthernandsouthernfringes.
    Sub-SaharanAfricahasarelativelyplentifulsupplyof
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    TABLE 7.1
    TotalandproportionalrenewablewaterresourcesinAfricassubregions
    Source: UNEP (2010b, table 1.2, p. 15; original data from FAO AQUASTAT).
    Subregion
    Total water
    resources
    (km
    3
    /year) (2008)
    Percentage of
    internal water
    resources of Africa
    Central Africa 2 858.08 50.66
    Eastern Africa 262.04 4.64
    Western Indian Ocean Islands 345.95 6.13
    Northern Africa 168.66 2.99
    Southern Africa 691.35 12.25
    Western Africa 1 315.28 23.32
    Total Africa 5 641.36 100
    179 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    ifgovernmentsdonottakeimmediateandradicalac-
    tion(UN-Habitat,2005).
    Thecoverageofdrinkingwatersupplyinsub-Saharan
    Africa
    1
    isbarely60%;theworldaverageisabout87%.
    Ofthe884millionpeopleintheworldstillusingunim-
    proveddrinkingwatersources,37%liveinthisregion.
    Provisionofimprovedwatersourcesinurbanareasre-
    mainedat83%between1990and2008.Inruralareas,
    itwasatonly47%in2008,althoughthisrepresented
    an11%increaseon1990gures,or110millionmore
    peoplegainingaccesstoimprovedwatersupplies
    (WHO/UNICEF,2010).Figure7.1givesacountry-by-
    countrybreakdownoftheproportionofthepopula-
    tionusingimproveddrinkingwatersources.
    Lackofsanitationfacilitiesisanevengreaterchallenge
    towatermanagementinAfrica.Manywaterbod-
    iesandothersourcesarepollutedwithmicrobiologi-
    calorganismsfromindiscriminatedisposalofexcreta,
    impairinghumanhealththroughwaterbornediseases
    suchasdiarrhoea,cholera,trachoma,schistosomiasis
    andothers.Water-relatedvector-bornediseases,such
    asmalaria,arealsoamajorhealthconcern.Insub-Sa-
    haranAfrica,only31%ofthepopulationusesimproved
    liveinawater-scarceenvironmentmeaningthatthey
    havelessthan1,000m
    3
    percapita(NEPAD,2006).
    Accesstoscarcewaterisexacerbatedbyincreased
    demandcausedbygrowingpopulations,especiallyin
    urbanareas,andatrendtowardshigherlivingstand-
    ardsinsomeplaces.Thisiscompoundedbydwindling
    supplyandpoorwatermanagement.Thesecharacter-
    isticspresentsignicantchallengestowaterprovision
    inAfricaandcontributetofoodinsecurity,poorhealth
    anddamagedecosysteminmanyplaces,especial-
    lywhererainfedagricultureiscrucialtolivelihoods
    (UNEP,2010b).
    Access to drinking water and sanitation
    AlthoughwaterisintimatelylinkedwithAfricanculture,
    religionandsocietyinmyriadways,modernAfrican
    societieshavenotsufcientlydevelopedtheadaptive
    capacitiestheyneedtoguaranteebasichouseholdsfor
    waterandothervitalservices.Often,wateriscarried
    longdistances,aburdenbornemainlybywomenand
    children.Inurbanandperi-urbanareas,waterisoften
    onlyavailablefromvendorsatanunfairpriceandthe
    qualityisoftenpoor.Theurbanslumpopulationin
    sub-SaharanAfricancountriesisexpectedtodouble,
    risingfrom200millionin2005to400millionin2020,
    FIGURE 7.1
    Useofimproveddrinkingwatersources(2008)
    Source: adapted from WHO/UNICEF (2010, g. 4, page 7).
    91-100%
    76-90%
    50-75%
    <50%
    No or insufficient data
    Use of improved drinking
    water sources (%)
    180
    thepopulationhasgrownbyabout3%(UNECA,
    2006).Some97%oftheregionscroplandsdependon
    rainfedagriculture,whichproducesmostofAfricas
    food(FAO,2008).Africaneedstoincreaseitsagricul-
    turaloutputatarateof3.3%ayearifitistoachieve
    foodsecurityby2025.Waterisakeycomponentofits
    abilitytofeeditspopulationbecauseirrigatedcrop-
    landaccountsforonly20%ofitsirrigationpotential.In
    fact,inallbutfourcountriesintheregion,lessthan5%
    ofthecultivatedareaisirrigatedsothereisconsid-
    erablescopeforexpandingirrigationtoincreasefood
    security(UNEP,2010b).
    Ontheotherhand,scenariossuggestthatincreasing
    theareaunderirrigationbyafactorofthreewould
    onlyrepresenta5%contributiontotheincreasein
    foodproductionneededby2025(UNWater/Africa,
    2004).However,thereisevengreaterscopeforex-
    pandingrainfedagriculture,harvestingwaterrunof
    andwiselyusinglargeuntappedgroundwaterreserves
    thatexistinsomeareas(UNEP,2010b).
    Energy insecurity
    Sub-SaharanAfricaistheworldslargestconsumer
    ofbiomassenergy,whichincludeswood,cropwaste,
    charcoal,manure,candlesandkerosene(seeSection
    2.2andChapter19).Biomassprovides15%ofSouth
    Africasenergyconsumption,86%ofenergyconsump-
    tionintherestofsub-SaharanAfrica,andmorethan
    90%oftheruralpopulationsenergyconsumption.
    Overall,onlyonepersoninfourinAfricahaselectricity.
    Electricityprovisionisalsooftenunreliableasaresult
    ofalackofinvestment,growingdemand,conict,un-
    predictableandvariableclimaticconditionsandaging
    equipmentallofwhichhamperseconomicactiv-
    ity.Hydropowersupplies32%ofAfricasenergy,but
    itisunderdeveloped.Only3%ofitsrenewablewa-
    terresourcesareexploitedforhydroelectricity(UNEP,
    2010b).UNEPsAfrica Water Atlasnotesanumberof
    constraintstofurtherhydrodevelopment,including
    theunequalcapacityofAfricassubregions.Forex-
    ample,despiteitsenormouspotentialforhydroelec-
    tricitygeneration,theCentralAfricasubregionisthe
    leastelectried.TheAfrica Water Atlasalsonotesthat
    climatechangewillexacerbaterainfallvariabilityand
    couldhinderhydropowerpotentialinsomeareas.
    Africahasenoughhydropowerpotentialtomeetthe
    entirecontinentselectricityneedsandboostinghy-
    dropowerwillstimulatetheeconomy,improvehuman
    welfare,helpthemoveawayfrombiomass,produce
    sanitationfacilities,withlargediferencesbetween
    urbancoverage,whichwasabout44%in2008,and
    ruralprovision,whichwas24%.Althoughthepropor-
    tionofthepopulationpractisingopendefecationin
    theregionisdeclining,inabsolutenumbers,itin-
    creasedfrom188millionin1990to224millionin2008
    (AMCOW,2010).
    TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs)forwa-
    teraretohalve,by2015,theproportionofpeople
    withoutsustainableaccesstosafedrinkingwaterand
    basicsanitation.Itisestimatedthatonlyvecountries
    insub-SaharanAfricahavemorethan75%ofwhatis
    neededtoachievethetargetfordrinkingwaterand
    onlytwocountries,KenyaandSouthAfrica,havemore
    than75%ofwhatisneededtoachievethesanitation
    target(WHO/UNICEF,2009).Thelackofsafewater
    andpropersanitationafectsnotonlyhumanhealth
    andwell-being,ithamperseconomicgrowthandsecu-
    ritytoo.
    Food insecurity
    Between2000and2007,25.5%ofthetotalpopula-
    tionwasundernourishedand30%ofchildrenunder
    veyearsoldsuferedfrommalnutrition.Betweenthe
    mid-1990sand2008,undernourishmentinsub-Saha-
    ranAfricaincreasedfrom200millionpeopletoabout
    350millionto400millionpeople(FAO,2008).Climate
    changeandclimatevariabilityarelikelytoseverely
    compromiseagriculturalproductionandfoodsecurity
    inmanyAfricancountries(Bokoetal.,2007).
    Sincethemid-1960s,agriculturalproductionhasin-
    creasedbyanaverageoflessthan2%annually,while
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    About 66% of Africa is
    arid or semi-arid and
    more than 300 of the
    800 million people in
    sub-Saharan Africa
    live in a water-scarce
    environment.
    181 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    analyseboththeconditionofinfrastructureandthe
    waytoaddressthechallengesofprovidingandnanc-
    inginfrastructureservices.Thestudyestimatesthat
    US$22billionisneededannuallybythewatersupply
    andsanitation(WSS)sectortoclosetheinfrastructure
    gap,meettheMDGsandachievenationaltargetsin
    Africawithintenyears(seeBox7.1).
    TheAICDreportalsoassessedthepotentialinvestment
    neededforirrigationsystemsinAfrica,reportedtobe
    approximatelyUS$18billionforsmall-scaleirrigation
    systemsandUS$2.7billionforlarge-scalesystemsover
    aftyyearinvestmenthorizon(Box7.2).
    Transboundary water management
    Africahasaboutone-thirdoftheworldsmajorinter-
    nationalwaterbasinsbasinslargerthan100,000km
    2
    .
    Virtuallyallsub-SaharanAfricancountries,plusEgypt,
    shareatleastoneinternationalwaterbasin.Depending
    onhowtheyaredelineated,therearebetween63
    (UNEP,2010b)and80(UNECA,2000)transboundary
    riverandlakebasinsontheAfricancontinent.Water
    interdependencyisaccentuatedbythefactthathigh
    percentagesoftotalowsindownstreamcountries
    originateoutsidetheirborders(UNECA,2001).Often,
    downstreamcountriesareatadisadvantageincom-
    parisonwiththeirupstreamneighbours.Examplesof
    thisoccurintheNigerbasin,theJubaShabellebasin
    andtheOkavangobasin.
    Anotherchallengefacingtransboundarywaterman-
    agementisthelackofcomplete,reliableandconsist-
    entdataabouttransboundarywaterresources,espe-
    ciallygroundwater(Box7.3).Thus,thereisapotential
    forconictoverthesewaters.Nevertheless,there
    arealsoover90internationalwateragreementsthat
    weredrawnuptohelpmanagesharedwaterbasins
    ontheAfricancontinent(UNEP,2010b).Forexample,
    the2000SouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity
    (SADC)ProtocolonSharedWatercourses(SADC,
    2008)promotesthesettingupofsharedwatercourse
    agreements.Italsoinstitutionalizesandenshrines
    theprinciplesofreasonableuseandenvironmentally
    soundresourcedevelopment.
    AnotherAfricanmodelistheNileBasinInitiative.
    FormallylaunchedinFebruary1999bytheCouncil
    ofMinistersofWaterAfairsoftheNileBasinStates,
    itseekstodeveloptheriverinacooperativemanner,
    sharesubstantialsocio-economicbenets,andpro-
    moteregionalpeaceandsecurity(UNEP,2009,p.50).
    lessgreenhousegasthanfossilfuelsandprovidea
    reliablebaseloadthatcouldenableotherrenewable
    energyresources.Developingthissectorinanappro-
    priatemannercouldpreventtheenvironmentaland
    socialimpactshistoricallyassociatedwithlargedam
    developments(UNEP2010b).
    Financing for infrastructure and maintenance
    Althoughthereisageneralrecognitionoftheneed
    toboostnanceforwaterinfrastructureacrossAfrica,
    theamountsrequiredcanbedifculttodetermine.
    Oneofthemostseriousrecentregionalefortsat
    costinginvestmentforwater,sanitationandirriga-
    tioninfrastructureistheAfricaInfrastructureCountry
    Diagnostic(AICD)(FosterandBriceo-Garmendia,
    2010).Thisstudyisunprecedentedinitsefortsto
    BOX 7.1
    AfricasWSSinvestmentneeds
    AnannualinvestmentofaboutUS$22billion(roughly
    3.3%ofAfricasGDP)istheestimatedrequirementfor
    AfricatomeetthewaterandsanitationMDGs.Projections
    werebuiltonabasescenario,whichassumesthesame
    distributionacrossmodalitiesas2006andappliesinboth
    urbanandruralareas
    Waterandsanitationspendingneeds,20062015,
    US$billionperannum
    Total Investment Maintenance
    Water 17.2 11.5 5.7
    Sanitation 5.4 3.9 1.4
    Total 22.6 15.4 6.1
    CapitalinvestmentneedswereestimatedatUS$15billion
    ayeararound2.2%oftheregionsGDP.Capitaloutlay
    estimates,whichincludebothnewinfrastructureandthe
    rehabilitationofexistingassets,arebasedonminimum
    acceptableassetstandards.Inaddition,itisassumed
    thataccesspatterns(orrelativeprevalenceofwaterand
    sanitationmodalities)remainbroadlythesamebetween
    2006and2015andthatservicesareupgradedforonlya
    minimumnumberofcustomers.
    MaintenancerequirementsstandataboutUS$6billionper
    annum(1.1%ofGDP).Operationandmaintenanceofnet-
    workandnon-networkservicesamountto3%and1.5%re-
    spectivelyofthereplacementvalueofinstalledinfrastruc-
    ture.Rehabilitationestimateswerebasedonamodelthat
    takesintoaccountthemaintenancebacklogofnetwork
    infrastructureineachcountry.
    Source: Foster and Briceo-Garmendia (2010).
    182
    climatevariabilityishigh,infrastructureispoorand
    GDPiscorrelatedwithrainfall.
    Droughtisthedominantclimateriskinsub-Saharan
    Africa.Itdestroyseconomiclivelihoodsandfarmers
    foodsourcesandhasasignicantnegativeefecton
    GDPgrowthinone-thirdofthecountries.Forexample,
    inKenya,thedroughtassociatedwithLaNiabetween
    1998and2000causeda6%reductioninGDP.Floods
    arealsohighlydestructivetoinfrastructure,transport
    Climate change and extreme events
    TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange
    (IPCC)stateswithveryhighcondencethatClimate
    changewillaggravatethewaterstresscurrentlyfaced
    bysomecountries,whilesomecountriesthatcurrent-
    lydonotexperiencewaterstresswillbecomeatrisk
    ofwaterstress(Bokoetal.,2007,p.435).Agrow-
    ingbodyofevidencelinksunmitigatedhydro-climat-
    icvariabilitytopooreconomicgrowthindeveloping
    countries,especiallyinAfrica.Inmostpoorcountries,
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    BOX 7.2
    Africasirrigationinvestmentneeds
    Twocategoriesofirrigationdevelopmentwereassessedlookingataftyyearinvestmenthorizon:
    Largescaledambasedirrigationcategorywasassociatedwithhydropowerreservoirsidentifedbyacompanionstudy
    forhydropower.ThisirrigationassumedamediuminvestmentcostofUS$3,000perhaforon-farmdevelopment;US$0.25
    perm
    3
    forwaterdeliveryandconveyance;aproxyforcanaloperationsandmaintenance;andUS$10perhaforon-farm
    operationsandmaintenance.Damcostswerenotincludedbecausetheyareassumedtobefullyjustiedandfullycovered
    bythehydropowerschemesassociatedwiththerelevantdams.
    Smallscaleirrigationwasbasedonsmallreservoirsfarmpondstreadlepumpsandwaterharvestingstructuresthatcol-
    lectlocalrunof.Theseassumedave-yearinvestmentcycle,amediuminvestmentcostofUS$2,000perhaforon-farm
    investment,andUS$80perhaforoperationandmaintenance.
    Cropprices,basedoncommodity-specicworldpricesfor20042006,wereadjustedforcountrydiferencesinpricepolicy
    andmarkettransactioncosts.
    Theestimateswerebasedonaspatialanalysisstudythatcombinedhydro-geographicandeconomicparameterstoestimate
    thepotentialinvestmentsneedsforirrigation.
    Note:
    Sudano-Sahelian: Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, Niger, Senegal, South Sudan and Sudan
    Eastern: Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda
    Gulf of Guinea: Benin, Cte dIvoire, Ghana and Nigeria
    Central: Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo
    Southern: Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Zambia
    Indian Ocean Islands: Madagascar
    Source: Foster and Briceo-Garmendia (2010, table 15.2, p. 291); You (2008).
    Large-scale irrigation Small-scale irrigation
    Increase in
    irrigated area
    (million ha)
    Investment cost
    ($ million) Average IRR (%)
    Increase in
    irrigated area
    (million ha)
    Investment cost
    ($ million) Average IRR (%)
    Sudano-Sahelian 0.26 508 14 1.26 4 391 33
    Eastern 0.25 482 18 1.08 3 873 28
    Gulf of Guinea 0.61 1 188 18 2.61 8 233 22
    Central 0.00 4 12 0.30 881 29
    Southern 0.23 458 16 0.19 413 13
    Indian Ocean Islands 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    Total 1.35 2 640 17 5.44 17 790 26
    183 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    andgoodsandserviceows,andtheycancontami-
    natewatersuppliesandcauseepidemicsofwater-
    bornediseasessuchascholera.
    IntheMozambiqueoodsof2000,over2millionpeo-
    plewereafected,anddamageswereestimatedat
    20%ofGDP(BrownandHansen,2008).Throughout
    sub-SaharanAfrica,theefectofthesehydrological
    extremescanbedevastating,especiallywherethere
    ishighdependenceonagricultureandwhereinfra-
    structureisdecient.Inthecomingdecades,whenthe
    impactofclimatechangeislikelytoworsen,droughts
    andoodsassociatedwithclimatevariabilitywill
    continuetoravagevulnerablecommunitiesinAfrican
    countries.
    AlthoughAfricanfarmershavealreadydeveloped
    techniquestoadapttoinherentweathervariations,
    thesemaynotbesufcienttoadapttothecombined
    impactsoftheinteractionofmultiplestressesatvari-
    ouslevelscausedbyclimatechangeandclimatevari-
    ability(Bokoetal.,2007).
    Data challenges
    Insufcient,inconsistentandunreliabledataabout
    water,waterneeds(fromsocio-economicindices)
    andweather-relatedextremeeventsareamongthe
    keychallengesfacingAfricaasthecontinenttries
    tomanageitswaterresources(Youngetal.,2009).
    Forexample,economicplannersfactorassumptions
    aboutdemographicchangessuchaspopulation
    growthandurbanization,intonationalplansdespite
    highlevelsofuncertainty.Thisisespeciallyevidentin
    instanceswheretherearedisputesovertheresultsof
    populationcensusesthatariseoutofethnic,religious
    orpoliticalconsiderations.TheAfrica Water Atlas
    notesthat,Buildingonafoundationofdetailed,con-
    sistent,accurateandavailabledataisoneofthecen-
    tralchallengesforAfricaswaterfuture(UNEP,2010b,
    p.38).Inthecaseofscienticinformation,forexam-
    ple,thesustainableuseofthegroundwaterresources
    thatunderlietheLakeChadbasinishamperedbya
    lackofhydro-geologicaldatasets(Box7.3).
    7.1.3Responsemeasures
    Institutional, legal and planning responses
    AfricanUnioninitiativessuchastheAfricanMinisters
    CouncilonWater(AMCOW),theAfricanWaterFacility,
    theincreasinglyimportantAfricanDevelopment
    Bank(AfDB)andtheRuralWaterandSanitation
    Initiativeallvividlytestifytoongoingcommitmentto
    BOX 7.3
    GroundwaterresourcesintheLakeChadbasin
    LakeChadisoneoftheSahelslargestfreshwaterres-
    ervoirs,andafocalpointformorethan3millionpeo-
    plemostofwhomfarm,herdanimalsandshfora
    living,andwholivewithina200-kmradiusofthelake.
    Seasonal,yearlyanddecadalrainfallisextremelyvari-
    ableacrossthisregion.ThebasinisfedbytheChari,
    LogoneandKomadougouYobrivers,butsincethe
    mid-1960s,droughts,waterdiversionsandirrigation
    haveledtoa75%dropinwaterows(seethegure).
    Ecosystemshavebeenunabletoadaptfastenough,sh-
    ingcommunitieshavehadtomoveawayandthequality
    andcoverageofdry-seasongrazinghasdeclined.
    Some35millionpeopleinthelargerLakeChadbasin
    havebeenafectedtosomedegree.Watershortages
    havecausedtheincreaseduseofgroundwater,although
    somestudiessuggestthatdecliningprecipitationhas
    alsoafectedwaterlevelsintheQuaternaryaquiferthat
    underliestheLakeChadbasin.Thereisnotenoughinfor-
    mationaboutthegroundwaterreserves,however,and
    thereisanurgentneedtoimprovetheavailabilityand
    completenessofhydro-geologicaldatasetssopolicy-
    makerscanrespondappropriatelytotheLakeChadba-
    sinsdiminishingwaterresources(UNEP,2010b).
    ApproximateextentofopenwaterinLakeChad
    digitizedfromLandsatimages,19732010
    Source: UNEP (2010b, p. 49)
    184
    Africa-wideefortsarebeingtakentoaddressthe
    uncertaintyofclimatechange.Africanclimateinstitu-
    tionssuchastheAfricanCentreofMeteorological
    ApplicationsforDevelopment;theInter-
    GovernmentalAuthorityonDevelopments(IGADs),
    ClimatePredictionandApplicationsCentre(ICPAC);
    andtheSouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity
    (SADC)DroughtMonitoringCentrehaveworkedon
    theclimateriskmanagementapproachincollabo-
    rationwiththeInternationalResearchInstitutefor
    ClimateandSociety.Theyarebuildingcapacitiesfor
    itssmoothintegrationintosectoraldecision-making
    processessuchasagriculturalproduction,foodsecu-
    rity,waterresourcesmanagement,healthprotection
    anddisasterriskmanagement.Theseclimateinstitu-
    tionsalsohelptosynchronizeregionallegalframe-
    worksthatprotectandsustainsharedwaterresourc-
    esthroughabenet-sharingparadigm.Andtheycan
    arrangeinter-basinwatertransferschemestosave
    dyingwaterecosystemslikeLakeChad(seetheg-
    ureinBox7.3)ortransferwaterfromwater-richba-
    sinstodrierzones.
    Concertedefortsattheregional,continentalandin-
    ternationallevelscanhelpAfricancountriestofacethe
    challengingtaskofharnessingwaterresourcesforsus-
    tainabledevelopmentinthefaceofclimatevariability
    andchange.Itisthereforeimportanttopoolallhuman
    andinstitutionalresourcesinordertotacklecommon
    challengesbyimprovingtheunderstandingofand
    quantitativeknowledgeaboutthevarioussourcesof
    uncertainty.Itisalsoimportanttoimprovetheway
    thisknowledgeiscommunicatedtowaterresources
    managersandotherstakeholders,andthewayuncer-
    taintyisincorporatedintowaterresourcesmanage-
    mentdecision-making(Hughes,2008).
    Thechallengesarenotallinfrastructural.Theyalsoin-
    cludeearly-warningsystemstohelppredicttheonset
    ofanddurationofrainfallseasons,intra-seasonaldry
    spells,rainfallanomaliesbasedoninter-hemispherical
    teleconnections,andleadtimesontheimpactsofEl
    NioandLaNia.
    7.2EuropeandNorthAmerica
    TheUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope
    (UNECE)regioncomprisesthe56countriesofthe
    EuropeanUnion;Western,CentralandEasternEurope;
    theCaucasus;CentralAsia;andNorthAmerica,which
    comprisestheUnitedStatesofAmerica(USA)and
    Canada(seeMap7.2).
    water-relateddevelopment.Oneofthemostimpor-
    tanteventswastheSecondExtraordinarySessionof
    HeadsofStateandGovernmentsoftheAfricanUnion,
    whichwasheldinSirte,Libya,inFebruary2004and
    dedicatedtoagricultureandwater.Anotherimportant
    eventwastheAfricanUnionSummitofHeadsofState
    onWaterandSanitationinSharmel-Sheikh,Egyptin
    July2007.TheAfricaWaterWeek,undertheauspices
    ofAMCOW,hasaddedanotherimpetustoinforma-
    tionsharingandawarenessofwaterresourcesdevel-
    opmentandmanagement.However,thereisanurgent
    needforwiderinternationalcooperationtoaugment
    regionalandcontinent-wideefortsinlinewiththe
    ongoingcollaborationwiththeEuropeanUnion(EU).
    Thoughinmanyinstances,transboundaryagreements
    havebeensuccessfulinaddressingpotentialconicts
    oversharedwaters(Box7.4).
    Africannationshavealsobeguntoseekwaystoad-
    dresstransboundarywaterissuesrelatedtohydro-
    powerdevelopment,especiallybyfosteringregional
    integrationthroughpowerpoolssuchastheSouth
    AfricanPowerPool(SAPP)andtheWestAfrican
    PowerPool(WAPP).Usingsuchpools,countriescan
    reducetheircostswhilemaintainingtheirownpower
    supply,relyonmutualhelpwhenpowersystems
    breakdown,enjoysocialandenvironmentalbene-
    ts,andstrengthencross-borderrelationships(UNEP,
    2010b).
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    BOX 7.4
    JointmanagementoftheSenegalRiver
    PotentialconictwasavertedintheSenegalRiverbasin
    whenaconstructivecompromisewasreachedonjoint
    management.Thiswasmadepossiblethroughtheestab-
    lishmentoftheOrganizationfortheDevelopmentofthe
    SenegalRiver(OMVS)in1972;throughtheadoptionof
    theSenegalRiverCharterin2002;andbyusingananc-
    ingmechanismtoensurethegenerationofrevenuesand
    benetsforthefourbasincountries.
    AgreementsintheLakeChadbasinhavenotbeenasin-
    clusivebecausesomeripariansarenotpartytothe2008
    legalagreementandstrategicactionprogrammeforLake
    Chad.Withinthetransboundaryagreementsthatarein
    operation,itisstillnecessarytoimproveunderstanding
    andclarifyregionalperspectivesoninternationalwater
    lawprinciples.
    185 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    one-thirdofthetotal.Between1960and2000,Central
    Asia(morethan120%populationincrease)andthe
    Caucasus(60%increase)haveexperiencedconsidera-
    blyhighergrowthratesthanothercountries.Formost
    countriesinWesternandCentralEurope,populations
    arestableordeclining(PRB,2008).Peopleareper-
    manentlyorseasonallymigratingfrommanyEastern
    Europeancountriestowesterncitieswhereeconomic
    prospectsarebetter.
    InNorthAmerica,thepopulationoftheUSAgrew
    by9.7%between2000and2010,anditisexpected
    toincreasebymorethan50%inthe60-yearperiod
    from1990to2050(USCensusBureau,n.d.).Total
    waterwithdrawalsintheUSAgrewbetween1970and
    1980,declinedbymorethan9%between1980and
    1985,andhavebeenrelativelyconstantsincethen
    despitecontinuedpopulationgrowth(NationalAtlas
    oftheUnitedStates,2011).InCanada,totalwater
    withdrawalshavebeenrisingsteadily(CEC,2008).
    In24Europeancountries,totalwaterabstractionde-
    creasedabout12%overthepast1017years,butone-
    fthofEuropespopulation(approximately113mil-
    lioninhabitants)stilllivesinwater-stressedcountries
    (EEA,2010).
    EuropeanandNorthAmericanpopulationsalsocon-
    sumeaconsiderableamountofvirtualwaterembed-
    dedinimportedfoodandproducts.Accordingtoone
    calculation,eachpersoninNorthAmericaandEurope
    (excludingformerSovietUnioncountries)consumes
    atleast3m
    3
    perdayofvirtualwaterinimportedfood,
    comparedto1.4m
    3
    perdayinAsiaand1.1m
    3
    perday
    inAfrica(ZimmerandRenault,n.d.).
    Thepercapitawaterusedforfoodproductionin
    WesternEuropeandNorthAmericahasdecreased
    substantiallyinpastdecades(Renault,2002).
    Reductionsintotalwaterconsumptionareduetoin-
    creasedefciency,economicfactors,regulationsand
    increasedawarenessoftheneedtoconservewater.
    TheeconomiesofcountriesintransitioninEurope
    arestillcatchingup,butwithincreasinglyhighliving
    standards,consumptionisprojectedtorise.
    Thecontributionmadebyprimaryproductionandheavy
    industrytotheeconomiesofWesternandCentralEurope
    andNorthAmericahasfallen,whilethatofserviceindus-
    triesandknowledge-basedindustrieshasrisen.Withthis
    hascomeadeclineinpoint-sourcewaterpollution(UNEP,
    Damsanddiversionsthatwerebuilttoprovidehydro-
    powerandirrigationandtomanageoodshavesigni-
    cantlyalteredtheregionswatersheds.Whiledams,weirs
    anddiversionsprovidewatermanagementservices,they
    havealsochangedhydrologicalregimes,interruptedriver
    andhabitatcontinuity,disconnectedriversfromadjacent
    wetlandsandoodplains,andchangederosionprocesses
    andsedimenttransport.Mostpoint-sourcepollutionfrom
    industrialandmunicipalefuenthasbeenaddressedin
    themostdevelopedcountries,butdischargesofuntreat-
    edorinsufcientlytreatedwastewaterscontinuetoexert
    pressures,especiallyinEasternEurope,South-Eastern
    Europe(SEE),theCaucasusandCentralAsia.
    Nutrientsfromagriculturalrunof,however,areof
    growingconcernthroughouttheUNECEregion.
    Moreover,pressuresfromirrigatedagriculturetoex-
    tractwaterarerising,especiallyinmorewaterscarce
    partsoftheregion,asaredemandstosatisfygrowing
    urbanneeds.Meanwhileclimatechangeisthreaten-
    ingavailablewaterresourcesandleadingtoincreased
    competitionamongusers.Somepartsoftheregion
    aresubjecttooodsanddroughts,andclimatechange
    isexacerbatingthesethreats.
    Alltheregionsnationsexceptthreeislandstatesshare
    waterresourceswithatleastoneothercountry,and
    transboundarywatershedscovermorethan40%ofthe
    EuropeanandAsianpartsoftheUNECEregion(UNECE,
    2007a).Therearemorethan100transboundaryrivers,
    withabasinareaover1,000km
    2
    each,andover100
    transboundarygroundwateraquifers(UNECE,2011a).
    Thishasledtostrengthenedbilateralandmultilateral
    cooperationandagreementonthesesharedwaters.
    Thereisamarkeddiferenceinthestateofwaterqual-
    ityandmanagementbetweenthecountriesofthe
    EUandNorthAmerica,andthoseinEasternEurope
    andCentralAsia.Thereisalonghistoryofenviron-
    mentallegislation,includingwatermanagement,in
    theEUandNorthAmerica,throughConventionsand
    Protocols,supplementedbyregulations,recommen-
    dationsandguidelinesforaction.EasternEurope,the
    CaucasusandCentralAsia,aswellasanumberofnew
    EUcountries,arestillstrugglingtoadequatelymanage
    waterprovisionandpollution.
    7.2.1Thedrivingforcesandpressuresonwaterresources
    Population, afuence and poverty
    Morethan1.2billionpeopleliveinEuropeand
    NorthAmerica,withthelatterrepresentingjustover
    186
    exportcommodities.Thepoorinlower-incomecountries
    suchasArmenia,Georgia,Uzbekistan,theRepublicof
    Moldova,KyrgyzstanandTajikistanareoftenunableto
    afordbasicdomesticwaterservices.
    2006b).Despitethemarkedtransitiontoapost-industri-
    aleconomy,demandforwaterislikelytoremainhighin
    EasternEurope,CentralAsiaandtheCaucasusbecause
    ofthedependenceonagriculture,miningandother
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    MAP 7.2
    UNECEMemberStates
    Source: Economic Commission for Europe, Map No. 3976 Rev. 11, November 2011. Department of Field Support, Cartographic Section, United Nations.
    Note: North America members are listed but not shown on the map.
    For the purposes of this chapter, the UNECE Member States are divided into the following groupings:
    EU countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy,
    Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom.
    Western Europe: Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg,
    Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom.
    Western Europe EU-15 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands,
    Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom.
    Central and Eastern Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,
    Malta, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkey.
    Central and Eastern Europe countries that became EU Member States in the course of the EU enlargement process: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech
    Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia.
    Balkan countries (as a subgroup of Central and Eastern Europe): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Republic of Macedonia,
    Montenegro, Serbia.
    Mediterranean: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Israel, Italy, Malta, Monaco, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia,
    Slovenia, Spain, Turkey.
    Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian
    Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.
    The Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia.
    Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
    North America: Canada, United States of America.
    London
    Dublin
    Paris
    Amsterdam
    Brussels
    Luxembourg
    Berlin
    Warsaw
    Prague
    Bern
    Vaduz
    Vienna
    Bratislava
    Budapest
    Ljubljana
    Copenhagen
    Oslo
    Stockholm
    Zagreb
    Belgrade
    Sofia
    Valletta
    Rome
    Bucharest
    Skopje
    Tirana
    Sarajevo
    Athens
    Madrid Lisbon
    Ankara
    Kyiv
    Moscow
    Minsk
    Helsinki
    Riga
    Tallinn
    Vilnius
    Reykjavik
    Nicosia
    Baku
    T'bilisi
    Yerevan
    Ashgabat
    Chisinau
    Geneva
    ECE HQ
    GERMANY
    UNITED
    KINGDOM
    FRANCE
    UKRAINE
    ITALY
    BELARUS
    K
    A
    Z
    A
    K
    H
    S
    T
    A
    N
    ROMANIA
    TURKEY
    GREECE
    BULGARIA
    AUSTRIA
    HUNGARY
    TURKMENISTAN
    UZBEKISTAN
    SPAIN
    POLAND
    FINLAND
    NORWAY
    SWEDEN
    RUSSIAN
    FEDERATION
    CYPRUS
    ISRAEL
    CROATIA
    ALBANIA
    SLOVENIA
    SLOVAKIA
    BOSNIA AND
    HERZEGOVINA
    REP. OF
    MOLDOVA
    CZECH REP.
    SWITZERLAND
    MONACO
    1
    MALTA
    ANDORRA
    LUXEMBOURG
    SAN
    MARINO
    LIECHTEN-
    STEIN
    PORTUGAL
    BELGIUM
    NETHERLANDS
    DENMARK
    ESTONIA
    LATVIA
    LITHUANIA
    GEORGIA
    ARMENIA
    AZERBAIJAN
    G
    ibraltar
    ICELAND
    IRELAND
    RUSS.
    FED.
    SERBIA
    MONTENEGRO
    B l a c k S e a
    Nort h
    Sea
    Bay of
    Bi scay
    I oni an
    Sea
    Aegean
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    Tyrrheni an
    Sea
    N o r w e g i a n
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    ATLANTI C OCEAN
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    M
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    a
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    Strait of Gibraltar
    Skagerrak
    A
    d
    r
    i
    a
    t
    i
    c


    S
    e
    a

    W
    h
    ite
    S
    e
    a

    B
    o
    sp
    orus
    Crete
    Sardinia
    Sicily
    Balearic Is.
    Corsica
    Crimea
    Shetland
    Is.
    Faroe Is.
    N
    ordkapp
    3
    0

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    70

    4
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    0
    0 500 250 750 1000 km
    250 500 mi
    The boundaries and names shown and the designations used
    on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance
    by the United Nations.
    Albania
    Andorra
    Armenia
    Austria
    Azerbaijan
    Belarus
    Belgium
    Bosnia and Herzegovina
    Bulgaria
    Canada
    Croatia
    Cyprus
    Czech Republic
    Denmark
    Estonia
    Finland
    France
    Georgia
    Germany
    Greece
    Hungary
    Iceland
    Ireland
    Israel
    Italy
    Kazakhstan
    Kyrgyzstan
    Latvia
    Liechtenstein
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Malta
    Monaco
    Montenegro
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Poland
    Portugal
    Republic of Moldova
    Romania
    Russian Federation
    San Marino
    Serbia and Montenegro
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Spain
    Sweden
    Switzerland
    Tajikistan
    The former Yugoslav Republic
    of Macedonia
    Turkey
    Turkmenistan
    Ukraine
    United Kingdom of Great Britain
    and Northern Ireland
    United States of America
    Uzbekistan
    Members:
    Capital city
    ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE
    THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC
    OF MACEDONIA
    1
    187 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    phosphorusandpesticidesrunintowatercourses.
    InEasternEurope,theCaucasusandCentralAsia,
    thesedifusepressuresarewidespreadbutmoder-
    ate(UNECE,2007a,2011a).Astheeconomyrevives,
    however,theywillincrease,threateningdomesticand
    transboundarywatersaswellashumanhealth.Insome
    basins,particularlyinCentralAsia,irrigationhasledto
    soilsalinizationandhighlevelsofmineralsaltinwater
    bodies(Box7.5).
    Sincethe1960s,landunderirrigationhasdoubledin
    Canada,andhasincreasedbymorethan50%inthe
    USA,withmuchofthegrowthinaridorsemi-aridre-
    gions.Inmanyparts,groundwaterlevelsaredeclining
    aswithdrawalsoutweighrecharge(CEC,2008).Since
    the1950s,nitrateloadsfromagriculturalrunofhave
    increasedenormouslyintheMississippiRiver,which
    drainsmorethan40%ofthelandmassoftheUSAs
    48contiguousstates(EPA,2008).
    Thelegalframeworksandbestmanagementpractices
    toreducepollutionfromagriculturewereestablished
    sometimeagointheEUandinNorthAmerica.InEU
    countriesinthedrainagebasinsoftheMediterranean
    Sea,theeasternAtlanticOcean,andtheBlackSea,
    implementationoftheseframeworksandpracticesis
    lagging,andwaterqualityisstillsufering.Highap-
    plicationsofbothmineralandorganicfertilizerare
    usedinthefarmingareasofWesternEurope.Source
    apportionmentstudiesindicatethatagriculturegen-
    erallyprovides5080%ofthetotalnitrogenload,
    withwastewaterprovidingmostoftheremainder
    (EEA,2005).Nitrogenapplicationrateshadincreased
    Climate change
    EuropeandNorthAmericamakeadisproportion-
    atelyhighcontributiontoclimatechange.The
    IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)
    statesthatfreshwaterresourcesarevulnerableand
    havethepotentialtobestronglyimpactedbyclimate
    change(Batesetal.,2008,p.135).Highnorthernlati-
    tudesareexpectedtoexperiencethemostextreme
    warming,increasingtheriskforindigenouspeoplesin
    theArcticassnowandiceconditionschangedramati-
    cally.Thepoorestandmostvulnerablearelikelyto
    suferthemost,sincetheyhavefewerresourceswith
    whichtocope.
    ProjectionsvaryconsiderablyacrosstheUNECEre-
    gion,butclimatechangeisexpectedtobringhigher
    temperatures,drought,reducedwateravailabilityand
    lowercropyieldstoSouthernEurope,theCaucasus
    andCentralAsia.Hydropowerpotentialandsummer
    tourismarealsolikelytobeafected.InCentraland
    EasternEurope,summerprecipitationisprojectedto
    decrease,causinghigherwaterstress.Whileclimate
    changeislikelytohavepositiveefectsintheshort
    terminNorthernEurope,theseareexpectedtobe
    outweighedbynegativeefectsasclimatechangepro-
    gresses(UNECE,2009a).
    NorthAmericaisexpectedtoexperiencewarmertem-
    peratures,increasedrainfall,summertimedroughts
    andmoreintenseandfrequentextremeweather
    eventssuchastornadoesandhurricanes.Therisksand
    uncertaintiesassociatedwithclimatechangeimpacts
    arediscussedlater.
    Water and agriculture
    Agriculturalpracticeintheregionhaschangedcon-
    siderablyoverthepastdecades:mechanization,in-
    creaseduseoffertilizersandpesticides,farmspe-
    cialization,growthoffarmsize,landdrainageand
    developmentsinanimalhusbandryhaveledtoadverse
    impactsontheaquaticenvironmentwithsomespe-
    cicsubregionaldiferentiationofwateruseandwater
    pollution.Wateruseforcropandanimalproduction,
    forexample,inCentralAsia,Greece,Italy,Portugaland
    Spain,accountsfor5060%ofthetotaluse.Inother
    countries,agricultureaccountsforonlyaround20%,
    whilethebulkisusedbymanufacturingindustriesand
    forcoolingpurposes.
    Agrochemicalshavehadadetrimentalefectonwa-
    terresourcesthroughouttheregionasnitrogen,
    European and North
    American populations
    also consume
    a considerable
    amount of virtual
    water embedded in
    imported food and
    products.
    188
    Infrastructural changes to water courses
    Throughouttheregion,structuralmodicationsto
    watershedshavealterednaturalows,disruptedor
    destroyedwildlifehabitatsandecosystemservices,
    anddisconnectedriversfromtheiroodplainsand
    soincreasingtheriskofoodsinmanyplaces.Some
    countrieshaveplanstore-naturalizewatercourses.In
    WesternandCentralEurope,partlybecausetherethe
    degreetowhichwaterbodieshavebeenmodiedhas
    beenassessed,thereisahigherawarenessaboutthe
    issueandresponsemeasureshavestartedtobetaken
    toaddressit.Considerabletimeandnancialresourc-
    esareneededtorestore,forexample,riversinthe
    Danubebasin(seeBox30.5,Hydromorphologicalal-
    terationsintheDanubeBasin,inChapter30).Current
    economicconditionsandprospectsaredelayingthe
    process.
    TheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyisprovid-
    inggrantstosomestatestorestoreriversandstreams,
    whilethereisagrowingmovementtoremovedams
    wheretheenvironmentalandothercostsoutweighthe
    benets(AmericanRivers,n.d.).
    TheDanube,inthebasinofwhichcoursesofriv-
    ershavebeenchangedforhydropowergeneration,
    ooddefenceandnavigationsincethesixteenth
    dramaticallyoverpastdecades,butarenowwide-
    lydeclining.However,ittakesalongtimeforthisto
    translateintoreductionintheconcentrationofnitro-
    gencompoundsinwaterbodies(UNECE,2011a).
    Water in the industrial and municipal sectors
    Modernpollutionabatementtechnologieshave
    stemmedthemostegregiouspollutionfromlarge
    industrialprocessesinWesternEuropeandNorth
    America.Recentconcernsrelatetomodernchemicals,
    includingnewpharmaceuticalsandhormones.Pollution
    fromthegreatnumberofsmallandmedium-sized
    industriesandsmallmunicipalwastewatertreatment
    plantsinEasternEurope,theCaucasus,CentralAsiaand
    severalofthenewEUcountries,whichdonotoper-
    ateaccordingtostandards,arestillimportantsources
    ofwaterpollution(Box7.6).Despiteassistancefrom
    WesternEurope,theimpactofeconomicdeclineinthe
    1990sremainsvisibleaswastewatertreatmentisstillin-
    adequateandwaterscontinuetobepollutedwithheavy
    metals,phosphorus,nitrogenandoilproducts(EEA,
    2010).MininghasanimpactmorelocallyinSEE,inthe
    CaucasusandsomeareasinNorthernEurope.
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    BOX 7.5
    AgricultureandwateruseinCentralAsia
    BOX 7.6
    Wastewatertreatmentinfrastructureinthe
    RepublicofMoldova
    InCentralAsia,theagriculturalsectoraccountsfor
    morethan90%ofsurfacewaterextractedand43%
    ofgroundwaterextracted,butitsupportshalfthere-
    gionalpopulation.Irrigatedagricultureandtheentire
    water-basedsectorcontributeabout40%to45%of
    regionalGDP(Stulina,2009).CentralAsiarepresents
    50%ofthetotalirrigatedareaoftheregionsofthe
    formerSovietUnion,(FAO,2011).
    Agriculturalwaterpollution,sedimentationandalgae
    bloomshavehadsomeseriousandwell-documented
    impacts.Thesehaveincludedthelossofbiodiversity,
    theextinctionofwholeecosystems,adeterioration
    indrinkingwaterquality,humanhealthproblems,
    decliningcropyields,poverty,unemployment,migra-
    tionandtheriskofconict(Yessekin,etal.2006).
    Althoughmanymeasureshavebeentakentoad-
    dressthesituation,scarcenancialresourceshaveled
    todelaysinimplementingthem.Theimportanceof
    stakeholderinvolvementinnegotiatingwateralloca-
    tion,especiallyintransboundarysituations,hasonly
    recentlybeenrecognized.TheInternationalFundfor
    SavingtheAralSeaissteeringaprocesstoimprove
    conditions.
    The1990seconomicdownturnresultedinahugede-
    clineintheoperationalcapacityofMoldovasmunici-
    palwastewatertreatmentplants.By2010,only24%
    werestilloperatingandonly4%ofthesewereadher-
    ingtolegalrequirementsforthedisposalofwastewa-
    ter.Inruralareas,70%ofhomeswerenotconnected
    totheseweragesystem.Asaresult,anincreasing
    amountofuntreatedwastewaterwasdischarged
    intorivers.EUandotherfundsbegansupporting
    anenormousassistanceprogrammetorehabilitate
    municipalinfrastructureandimproveruralsanita-
    tion.Newwastewatertreatmentlegislation,modelled
    onEUlawsanddrawnupundertheNationalPolicy
    DialogueprocesscameintoforceinOctober2008,
    replacingoutdatedSoviet-stylelaw.Existingplants
    cannowberehabilitatedandnewonesconstructed
    accordingtostate-of-the-arttreatmenttechnology
    (UNECE,2011b).
    189 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    amongdiferentpopulationsinsituationsthatarealso
    changing,suchasinburgeoningurbanareas.Apar-
    ticularchallengeforcountriesinEasternEuropeand
    CentralAsiaiswateruseefciencyinirrigatedagricul-
    ture.Finally,humanhealthisatriskwherewaterand
    sanitationprovisionisinadequate.
    Floods and drought
    Overabstraction,waterscarcityanddroughthavea
    directimpactoncitizensandeconomicsectors,and
    largeareasofEuropeandNorthAmericaarealready
    afected(Boxes7.7and7.8).Climatechangewill
    bringhighertemperaturestotheregion,exacerbating
    droughtevents.
    Between1976and2006intheEU,boththeareaaf-
    fectedbydroughtandthenumberofpeoplewhose
    liveswereinuenceddoubled(Figure7.2).Theseim-
    pactscanincludedeclinesincerealandhydropower
    production(asexempliedbythesituationinRussia
    in2010),andeconomicrepercussions.ManyWestern
    Europeancountrieshavedrawnuporarepreparing
    droughtmanagementplans(EC,2009).Toaddressthe
    impactofdroughtandwaterscarcityonhumanhealth,
    UNECEandWHO/Europehavedevelopedspecic
    guidanceandrecommendations,whichincludeadap-
    tationmeasuresfordrainage,sewerageandwastewa-
    tertreatment(UNECE,2009a).
    century,hashydropowerimpoundmentsalong30%
    ofitslength.Itisnowsubjecttoplanstoimprove
    ecosystemqualityinaccordancewiththeDanube
    RiverProtectionConvention,whichcameintoforce
    in1998andaddresseshydropoweraswellaspol-
    luteddischargesfromagriculture,municipalitiesand
    soforth(ICPDR,2007).InWesternEurope,theWater
    FrameworkDirectivehasledtoprogrammestoen-
    hanceandprotectaquaticecosystemservices,andthe
    innovativePaymentforEcosystemServicesapproach
    isbeingexploredintheUNECEregion(Wunder,2005;
    UNECE,2005).
    Table7.2summarizestherelativeimportanceofthese
    variouspressuresonwaterresourcesoversubregions
    (UNECE,2007a).Aseconomiesgroworrevive,how-
    ever,shiftsintherelativeimportanceofsomeofthese
    pressureswilloccur,especiallyinEasternEurope,the
    CaucasusandCentralAsia.
    7.2.2Challenges,risksanduncertainties
    Thesituationsandplacesinwhichuncertaintyandrisk
    aremostevidentinEuropeandNorthAmericainclude
    highlypopulatedareasthatarepronetooodingand
    drought.Theprojectedimpactsofclimatechangealso
    includeincreasedrisksofextremehydrologicalevents.
    Uncertaintyandriskcanleadtoconictinconditions
    wherelimitedamountsofdecliningorincreasinglypol-
    lutedwaterresourcesaresharedbetweensectorsor
    Source: Chapter 30.
    TABLE 7.2
    Mainpressuresonwaterresourcesinorderofpriority(fromhightolow)
    Countries in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus
    and Central Asia EU-15 countries and North America
    Pressures on water quality:
    Municipal sewage treatment, non-sewer population,
    old industrial installations, illegal wastewater
    discharges, illegal disposal of household and
    industrial wastes in river basins, tailing dams and
    dangerous landlls
    Pressures on water quality:
    Agricultural (especially nitrogen) and urban sources of pollution
    Abstraction pressures:
    Agricultural water use
    Abstraction pressures:
    Agricultural water use (particularly in Southern Europe and the
    south-western USA), major urban centres
    Hydromorphological alterations:
    Hydropower dams, irrigation channels, river alterations
    Hydromorphological alterations:
    Hydropower dams, river alterations
    Other pressures:
    Agro-chemical pollution (becoming more severe),
    mining and quarrying
    Other pressures:
    Selected industries discharging hazardous substances, mining
    and quarrying
    190
    fueldemand(Fieldetal.,2007).Muchuncertainty
    existsabouthownationalwatermanagementbodies
    intheregioncanadapttothesechanges,especially
    wherenancialandhumancapacitiesareconstrained
    bywidespreadpoverty,asinEasternEurope,the
    CaucasusandCentralAsia.Inaddition,climatemiti-
    gationmeasuresmayproduceadversesideefects
    forwatermanagement,heighteninguncertaintyand
    risk(UNECE,2009a).Oneexampleisthedebateover
    waterforfoodproductionversuswaterforbio-energy
    crops.
    Water and human health
    Some120millionpeopleintheEuropeanregiondo
    nothaveaccesstosafedrinkingwater.Evenmore
    lackaccesstosanitation,resultinginthespreadof
    water-relateddiseases.InNorthAmerica,nativepeo-
    plesareoftenill-servedbypipedwaterandsanita-
    tionfacilities.Forexample,over10,000homeson
    reservesinCanadahavenoindoorplumbing,andthe
    waterorsewersystemsinonereserveinfouraresub-
    standard(UNDESA,2009).
    Concertedinternationalefortstoaddresswater-
    relatedhealthmattersintheregiononlybeganat
    theendofthe1990s,culminatingintheProtocol
    Floodshaveafectedmorethan3millionpeoplein
    theUNECEregionsincethebeginningofthecen-
    tury,andtheassociatedcostshaveincreasedrapid-
    ly.Theyhaveexposedpeopletovarioushealthhaz-
    ardsandcauseddeaths,displacement,andeconomic
    losses.Contributingfactorsincludepopulationgrowth
    inood-proneareas,deforestationandwetlandloss.
    Recognizingthebenetsofnaturaloodingtoecosys-
    temsandtheroleofwetlandsinoodprotectionhas
    ledtoashifttowardsanintegratedapproachtoood
    managementinmanyEuropeancountriesandin
    NorthAmerica.Anumberoftransboundarywater-
    shedshaveinitiatedintegratedwatermanagement
    plans(Royetal.,2010;UNECE,2009b).
    Climate change and uncertainty and risk
    TheIPCCpredictswithhighcondencethatwater
    stresswillincreaseinCentralandSouthernEurope,
    andthatbythe2070s,thenumberofpeopleafected
    willrisefrom28millionto44million.Summerows
    arelikelytodropbyupto80%inSouthernEuropeand
    somepartsofCentralandEasternEurope.Europes
    hydropowerpotentialisexpectedtodropbyanaver-
    ageof6%,butrisebybetween20%and50%around
    theMediterraneanby2070(Alcamo,etal.2007).
    InNorthAmerica,theIPCCreportswithhighcon-
    dencethattheimpactwillincludeincreasedcompeti-
    tionamongusersforover-allocatedwaterresources.
    Climatechangewillalsostressthebi-nationalrela-
    tionshipoverthesharedGreatLakes
    2
    ,wherewater
    levelsarelikelytodeclineandpopulationgrowthwill
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    BOX 7.7
    UncertaintyandriskontheNorthAmericanprairies
    BOX 7.8
    Satisfyingmunicipalwaterneedsindrought-prone
    regions
    IntheprairiesofCanadaandpartsoftheUnited
    StatesofAmerica,waterowsarehighlyvariable,
    whichisreectedintheoccurrenceofsevereoods
    anddrought.Thelackofpredictability,exacerbated
    bymeltingglaciersandsnowpacks(asaresultof
    climatechange),afectstheeconomyandhasled
    tocompetitionforwaterbetweenagriculture,the
    oilandgasindustriesandgrowingmunicipalities.
    Watershedplanningandmanagementstrategieshave
    beeninstitutedtoattempttoaddresstherisksas-
    sociatedwiththechangingconditions,whichinclude
    adeclineinwateryieldof20km
    3
    between1971and
    2004intheCanadianPrairies(UNEP,2007;Statistics
    Canada,2010).
    Indryyears,therehavebeenproblemssupplyingsuf-
    cientwatertothe12millionpeoplelivinginIstanbul
    andthe4millioninhabitantsofAnkara.Asaresult,
    waterhasbeenrationed.InresponsetotheIPCCs
    projectionthatdemandinIstanbulwillrisewhilesup-
    plyfalls,anumberofremedialactionsarebeingtak-
    en,fromwatersavingcampaignstowatertransfers
    fromasmuchas150kmaway(Waterwiki.net,n.d.).
    Duringthe2008drought,Barcelonaturnedofcivic
    fountainsandbeachsideshowersandbannedhose-
    pipesandllingswimmingpools.Inthesameyear,
    Cyprusappliedemergencymeasuresthatincluded
    cuttingthewatersupplyby30%(EEA,2007,2010).
    Inagrowingnumberofcities,suchsevereemergen-
    cyrestrictionsbecamepartofaconsultativeprocess
    withstakeholders,achangethatwasalsoinu-
    encedbytherequirementsoftheAarhusConvention
    (UNECE,1998).
    191 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    FIGURE 7.2
    NumberofpeopleafectedbyselectedextremeweathereventsintheUNECEregion,19702008
    powersbetweenprovincialandfederalgovernments.
    Therewererecentdemandsforafederalwaterpolicy
    afour-yearprojectrunningfrom2008to2012tocre-
    ateaWaterSecurityFramework(Normanetal.,2010).
    Therehasbeenarecentdevolutionofwatergovern-
    ancefromfederaltostatelevelsintheUSA,whichhas
    ledtoanincreaseinlocalparticipationinwaterman-
    agement(NormanandBakker,2005).
    Water-relatedinstitutionsincountriesintransitionare
    stillgenerallyweak,withwatercompetencesspread
    amonginstitutionswithweakenforcementcapaci-
    ties.SupportedbytheEUonmanyfronts,newEU
    MemberStateshavemadebetterprogressinbuilding
    newinstitutionalstructuresincomparisonwithother
    EasternEuropeancountries,theCaucasusandCentral
    Asia(UNECE,2010).TheWaterFrameworkDirective
    (WFD),whichwasconcludedin2000apartfromsome
    morerecentdirectivesonstandardsandgroundwa-
    ter,isthemostimportantpieceofEUwaterlegislation
    (EC,2000).Otherdirectiveswithdirectrelevanceto
    waterqualityanditsprotectionaretheonesrelated
    tourbanwastewatertreatment(1991),tocontroland
    limitnitratepollutionfromagriculture(1991),toregu-
    latethequalityofdrinkingwater(1998),andtoother
    onWaterandHealthundertheUNECEWater
    Convention.Thisisdedicatedtoensuringthateve-
    ryonehasadequatedrinkingwaterandsanitation.It
    hasresultedinincreasedefortstoattain,andmove
    beyond,thewater-relatedMDGs(UNECE,2010).
    Basinorganizations,suchasthosefortheRhine,
    Meuse,ScheldtandDanube,alsochallengethebasin
    countriestodevelopamorecoordinatedapproach
    andaddresstheefectsthatposethehighestriskand
    uncertaintiestohumanhealthandwatermanage-
    ment,andtodevelopappropriateadaptationmeas-
    urestonewrisksastheybecomebetterunderstood
    (UNECE,2011a).
    7.2.3Responsemeasures
    Institutional, legal and planning responses
    Institutionalandstrategicresponsestomanagewater
    issueshavearelativelylonghistoryintheregion.In
    NorthAmerica,watergovernancewasstrengthened
    inthe1970swiththepassingofregulationssuchas
    theCleanWaterActandtheSafeDrinkingWaterAct
    intheUSA,andparallellegislationinCanada,includ-
    ingtheCanadaWaterAct.InCanada,however,wa-
    tergovernanceisgenerallymoredecentralizedand
    fragmentedasaresultoftheconstitutionaldivisionof
    Note: At least one of the following criteria must be fullled: 10 or more people reported killed; 100 people reported afected; declaration of a
    state of emergency; or call for international assistance.
    Source: Produced in 2009 by the Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) based on data from the EM-DAT
    database by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the Catholic University of Louvain.
    Drought
    Extreme
    temperature
    Flood
    Storm
    9
    8
    7
    6
    5
    4
    3
    2
    1
    0
    N
    o
    .

    t
    o
    t
    a
    l

    a
    f
    e
    c
    t
    e
    d

    p
    e
    o
    p
    l
    e

    (
    m
    i
    l
    l
    i
    o
    n
    s
    )
    19701979 19801989 19901999 20002008
    192
    2010a).Percapitaavailabilityhereisthelowestinthe
    world(ESCAP,ADBandUNDP,2010).
    TheregionincludestheRussianFederation,Indiaand
    China,threeoftheveBRICScountries,withtheirin-
    creasingwaterdemandstosupporttheirburgeoning
    economicdevelopment.Growingpopulations,rapid
    urbanization,industrialization,economicdevelopment
    andclimatechangecontinuetoputpressureonthe
    regionsfreshwaterresources,exacerbatingalready
    difcultconditions.TheAsia-Pacicssocio-economic
    developmentpatternpreviouslyreliedprimarilyon
    cheapnaturalandhumanresources.Theconsequenc-
    eshavebeentwoparalleleconomies:rapidadvances
    ineconomicperformancealongsidepersistingpoverty
    andenvironmentaldegradation.
    Between1990and2008,signicantachievements
    weremadeinmeetingtheMDGonaccesstosafe
    drinkingwater.Butprogresshasgenerallybeenslower
    inprovidingimprovedsanitation,exceptinNorth-East
    andSouth-EastAsia.About480millionpeoplestill
    lackedaccesstoimprovedwaterresourcesin2008,
    while1.9billionstilllackedaccesstoimprovedsanita-
    tion.
    4
    Evenwhenaccessisestablished,naturaldisas-
    tersandfunctionalitylevelscansignicantlyinuence
    whetherornotdrinkingwaterandsanitationsystems
    cancontinuetorespondtotheregionsneeds.The
    Asia-Pacicishighlyvulnerabletoextremeeventsand
    climatechangeisexpectedtoincreaseclimatevari-
    abilityandthemagnitudeandfrequencyofoodsand
    droughts.
    Wateravailability,allocationandqualityremainmajor
    issues.Irrigatedagricultureisthebiggestwateruser.
    Somecountries,suchasCambodiaandLaoPeoples
    DemocraticRepublic,uselessthan1%oftheirtotal
    availablewaterresources,whileothershavewithdrawn
    signicantquantitiesoftheirtotalcombinedsurface
    waterandgroundwaterinonecaseleadingtothe
    disasterattheAralSea.Populationgrowth,growing
    waterconsumptionrates,environmentaldegradation,
    damagingagriculturalactivities,poorcatchmentarea
    management,industrialization,andgroundwaterover-
    usearecausingadeteriorationinwaterquality.
    7.3.1Thedrivingforcesandpressuresonwater
    resources
    TheAsia-Pacicregionisextremelydynamic,undergo-
    ingrapidurbanization,economicgrowth,industrializa-
    tion,andextensiveagriculturaldevelopment.Although
    areasrelatedtowaterandhealthissues.TheWFD
    expandsthescopeofwaterprotectiontoallwaters,
    andrequirestheachievementofagoodstatusforall
    watersinEUcountriesby2015.Apartfromitsefect
    toimprovewatermanagementinEUcountries,the
    applicationofprinciplesoftheWFDisofimmense
    importancetoimprovingwatermanagementandcut-
    tingdownpollutionincountriesattheEasternborder
    oftheEU(Belarus,theRepublicofMoldova,Ukraine,
    Armenia,AzerbaijanandGeorgia).
    Theuseoftransboundarywaters,andtheirprotection,
    isgovernedbythe1992UNECEWaterConvention.
    Thisrequirespartiestoenterintospecicbilateralor
    multilateralagreementsandtocreatejointinstitutions.
    TheEUWaterFrameworkDirective(WFD)hasacceler-
    atedanddeepenedahistoricalprocessoftransbound-
    arywatermanagementacrosstheEUs40internation-
    alriverbasins,exempliedintheDanubeandRhine
    basins(EC,2008).
    CanadaandtheUSAhavebeenleadersinthebi-
    lateralmanagementofsharedwaters,throughthe
    InternationalJointCommissioninparticular.Asare-
    sult,thestatusofmanywatercoursesintheregions
    hasbeenconsiderablyimproved,andtherearefar
    fewerdisputesoversharedwaters(UNECE,2009c).
    Addressingtransboundarygroundwaterissuesremains
    anexception,astheworkofmanyjointbodiesinthe
    areaoftransboundarygroundwatersisstillinsufcient,
    exceptperhapsinsomepartsofWesternEurope.
    7.3Asia-Pacic
    Forthepurposesofthischapter,theAsia-Pacicre-
    gion
    3
    comprisesthe55memberstatesofESCAPinve
    subregions:CentralAsia,North-EastAsia,Oceaniaand
    thePacic,SouthAsia,andSouth-EastAsia(seeMap
    7.3fortheESCAPMemberCountries).Theregionisex-
    tremelydiverse,withsevenoftheworldsmostpopu-
    louscountriesandmanyofitssmallestnations,several
    ofwhicharelocatedinthePacic(ESCAP,2011).
    TheAsia-Pacicishometo60%oftheworldspopulation
    butithasonly36%ofitswaterresources(APWF,2009).
    Nevertheless,thisrepresentstheworldslargestshareof
    renewablefreshwaterresources,withanannualaverage
    of21,135billionm
    3
    .Givenitslargepopulationandeco-
    nomicgrowth,itswaterwithdrawalrateisalsohigh,av-
    eragingabout11%ofitstotalrenewablewaterresources,
    whichisonparwithEuropeanrates,andranksitsecond
    intheworldafterthewater-scarceMiddleEast(ESCAP,
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    193 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    populationgrowthratesremainhighinsomear-
    eas.Foodsecurityisanimportantissuesinceabout
    two-thirdsoftheworldshungrypeopleliveinAsia
    (APWF,2009).Internalmigrationandurbaniza-
    tionaredrivingtheriseinthenumberofmegacities
    (ESCAP,2011).Theregionhassomeoftheworlds
    fastest-growingcitiesandbetween2010and2025
    apredicted700millionpeoplewereaddedtothe
    growingnumbersrequiringmunicipalwaterservices
    (ESCAP,2010a).
    thesearedesirabletrendsinmanyways,theyalsorep-
    resentdriversthatareafectingtheregionscapacity
    tomeetitssocio-economicwaterdevelopmentneeds.
    Demographics
    Between1987and2007,theregionspopulation
    grewfromjustunder3billiontoabout4billionpeo-
    ple(UNEP,2007).Averagepopulationdensity,at111
    peopleperkm
    2
    ,isthehighestintheworld(UNEP,
    2011).Thedemographictransitionistakingplacein
    allcountries,butatdiferenttimesandatadiferent
    pace.Althoughfertilityrateshavedeclinedsteadily,
    MAP 7.3
    UNESCAPMemberStates
    Source: Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacic, Map No. 3974 Rev. 17, November 2011. Department of Field Support, Cartographic
    Section, United Nations.
    Note: The ESCAP Members States in the Asia-Pacic subregions are as follows.
    North-East Asia: China, Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea, Japan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation.
    Central Asia and the Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
    South-East Asia: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand,
    Timor-Leste, Viet Nam.
    South and South-West Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Turkey.
    The Pacic: American Samoa, Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru,
    New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu.
    Incheon
    Bangkok
    ESCAP HQ
    Chiba
    Beijing
    Bogor
    New Delhi
    Shanghai
    Guangzhou
    Wuhan
    Mumbai
    Hyderabad
    Karachi
    Almaty Vladivostok
    Osaka
    Sapporo
    Anchorage
    Sydney
    Melbourne
    Perth
    Surabaya
    Auckland
    Istanbul
    Canberra
    Wellington
    Port Moresby
    Nouma
    Pago Pago
    Port-Vila
    Apia
    Alofi
    Avarua
    Funafuti
    Majuro
    Papeete
    Tarawa
    Yaren
    Jakarta
    Bogor
    Dili
    Kuala Lumpur
    Bandar Seri Begawan
    Hanoi
    Manila
    Vientiane
    Sri Jayewardenepura Kotte
    Beijing
    Seoul Incheon Tokyo
    Chiba
    Ulaanbaatar
    Male
    Colombo
    New Delhi
    Baku
    Moscow
    Ashgabat
    Astana
    Ankara
    T'bilisi
    Bishkek
    Dushanbe
    Tashkent
    Yerevan
    Suva Suva
    Nuku'alofa
    Koror
    Hagta
    Palikir
    T
    h
    im
    p
    h
    u
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    a
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    m
    a
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    d
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    e
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    Honiara
    Tehran
    -
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    -
    -
    -
    -
    Is
    la
    m
    a
    b
    a
    d

    Dhaka
    P'yongyang
    Saipan
    Naypyitaw
    Bangkok
    ESCAP HQ
    Tuam
    otu A
    rc
    h
    ip
    e
    la
    g
    o

    S
    o
    c
    iety Is.
    T
    u
    b
    u
    ai Is.
    Pitcairn
    Phoenix Is.
    Tokelau Is.
    Gilbert Is.
    Hawai i an Is
    l a
    n
    d
    s

    Northern Line
    Islands
    Southern Line
    Islands
    Marquesas
    Is.
    Honshu
    Kyushu
    Shikoku
    Hokkaido
    Sakhalin
    Taiwan
    Luzon
    Mindanao
    K
    u
    r
    il Is
    .

    R
    y
    u
    k
    y
    u
    Is
    .
    Al eut i an I sl ands

    Tasmania
    South Island
    North Island
    S
    u
    m
    a
    te
    r
    a

    Java
    Sulawesi
    Hong Kong, China
    Northern
    Mariana
    Islands
    Guam
    New
    Caledonia
    American
    Samoa
    C
    o
    o
    k
    Isl ands
    French
    Polynesia
    Niue
    M
    acao, China
    FIJI
    SAMOA
    SINGAPORE
    TUVALU
    NAURU
    MARSHALL
    ISLANDS
    SOLOMON
    ISLANDS
    PAPUA
    NEW GUINEA
    A U S T R A L I A
    NEW ZEALAND
    VANUATU
    TONGA
    K I R I B A T I
    FEDERATED STATES
    OF MICRONESIA
    PHILIPPINES
    MALAYSIA
    I N D O N E S I A
    C H I N A
    I NDI A
    KAZAKHS TAN
    SRI LANKA
    VIET NAM
    BRUNEI
    DARUSSALAM
    MYANMAR
    THAILAND
    NEPAL
    TURKEY
    ISLAMIC REPUBLIC
    OF
    IRAN
    BHUTAN
    BANGLADESH
    MALDIVES
    TAJIKISTAN
    KYRGYZSTAN
    AZERBAIJAN
    P
    A
    K
    I
    S
    T
    A
    N

    A
    F
    G
    H
    A
    N
    IST
    A
    N
    TURKMENIST
    A
    N

    UZBEK
    IS
    T
    A
    N

    Jammu
    and
    Kashmir
    CAM
    B
    O
    D
    IA

    LAO
    P.D.R.
    R U S S I A N
    F E D E R A T I O N
    MONGOLIA
    JAPAN
    REP. OF
    KOREA
    DEM. PEOPLE'S
    REP. OF KOREA
    UNITED STATES
    OF AMERICA
    PALAU
    A
    R
    M
    E
    N
    IA
    GEO
    R
    G
    IA

    TIMOR-
    LESTE
    Arafura Sea
    Bay of
    Bengal Arabian Sea
    G
    ulf of Oman
    Black Sea
    Caspian
    Sea
    NOR T H P A CI F I C OCE A N
    S OUT H P A CI F I C OCE A N
    Ta s man S e a
    Co r a l S e a
    Celebes
    Sea
    South China
    Sea
    Philippine
    Sea
    East
    China
    Sea
    Sea of Okhotsk
    Be r i n g Se a
    Mediterranean
    Sea
    P
    e
    r
    s
    ia
    n
    G
    ulf
    R
    e
    d

    S
    e
    a
    120 135 150 165 180 165 150 135

    30 45 60 75 90 105 120
    135 150 165 180 165
    150 135
    45
    45
    30
    30
    15
    0
    15
    60
    60
    45
    30
    15
    0
    15
    30
    45
    60
    Equator
    ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION
    FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
    0
    0 1000 2000 3000 km
    1000 2000 mi
    The boundaries and names shown and the designations used
    on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance
    by the United Nations.
    Dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control
    in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan.
    The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been
    agreed upon by the parties.
    Final boundary between the Republic of Sudan and the
    Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined.
    Afghanistan
    Armenia
    Australia
    Azerbaijan
    Bangladesh
    Bhutan
    Brunei Darussalam
    Cambodia
    China
    Democratic People's Republic of Korea
    Federated States of Micronesia
    Fiji
    France
    Georgia
    India
    Indonesia
    Islamic Republic of Iran
    Japan
    Kazakhstan
    Kiribati
    Kyrgyzstan
    Lao People's Democratic Republic
    Malaysia
    Maldives
    Marshall Islands
    Mongolia
    Myanmar
    Nauru
    Nepal
    Netherlands
    New Zealand
    Pakistan
    Palau
    Papua New Guinea
    Philippines
    Republic of Korea
    Russian Federation
    Samoa
    Singapore
    Solomon Islands
    Sri Lanka
    Tajikistan
    Thailand
    Timor-Leste
    Tonga
    Turkey
    Turkmenistan
    Tuvalu
    United Kingdom
    United States of America
    Uzbekistan
    Vanuatu
    Viet Nam
    American Samoa
    Commonwealth of the
    Northern Mariana Islands
    Cook Islands
    French Polynesia
    Guam
    Hong Kong, China
    Macao, China
    New Caledonia
    Niue
    Members:
    Associate members:
    ESCAP Headquarters or regional centres
    194
    basedontheconstructionofanill-thought-outdam,
    ambiguouswaterwithdrawalrightsordeteriorating
    waterquality.
    Theallocationofincreasinglyscarcewaterresources,
    however,istheprincipalcauseofwaterconicts,with
    themostimportantchallengeintheregionssocio-
    economicdevelopmentbeingtobalancediferentwa-
    terusesandtomanagetheireconomic,socialanden-
    vironmentalimpacts.Inwater-stressedcountries,there
    arecompetingdemandsforwaterforurban,industrial,
    agricultureandecosystemsuponwhichlivelihoodsde-
    pend.Inaddition,waterdisputesariseoverinter-basin
    watertransfers,whichhaveenvironmental,socialand
    nancialchallenges(ESCAP,2010a).
    7.3.2Challenges,risksanduncertainties
    Hotspots
    ThemanythreatstowaterresourcesintheAsia-Pacic
    regionrevealacomplexpictureandraisemanycon-
    cerns.Tobetterprioritiseregionalaction,ESCAPhas
    identiedhotspotswheretherearemultiplechal-
    lenges.Thehotspotsarecountries,areasorecosys-
    temsthathaveoverlappingchallengessuchaspoor
    accesstowaterandsanitation,limitedwateravailabil-
    ity,deterioratingwaterquality,andincreasedexposure
    toclimatechangeandwater-relateddisasters.Inthe
    summerof2010,forexample,approximatelyone-fth
    ofPakistanwasinundated,afectingmorethan
    20millionpeopleintheoodedareasalongthelength
    oftheRiverIndus.Floodingalsodestroyedmorethan
    1.6millionacresofcrops(Guha-Sapir,etal.,2011).
    South-EastAsiancountriesinparticularareatadevel-
    opmentcrossroads(Figure7.3).Althoughhigheco-
    nomicgrowthratesprovidenancesforbetterwater
    resourcesmanagement,manycurrentdevelopment
    prioritiesignoretherisksfromnaturaldisasters,cli-
    matechange,andpoorhouseholdwaterandsanita-
    tionaccess.Forexample,Indiaisindangerofbeing
    ill-preparedfornaturaldisastersandclimatechange,
    whileunsustainablewater-usepatternsareevidentin
    PakistanandUzbekistan.Basicaccesstosanitationre-
    mainsamajorconcernforBangladesh.
    AreasofconcernincludesomeofAsiasmajorbread-
    baskets,suchIndiasPunjabandtheNorthChinaPlain.
    Watertablesintheseareasarefallingby2mto3m
    ayear,withseriousimpactsonagricultureandfood
    security.Tropicaldeltas,wherewaterproductivityfor
    foodproductionisalreadylow,aredegradingandare
    atriskfromsea-levelrises.Foodsecurityisachallenge
    Economic development
    Since2000,theAsia-PacicsGDPgrowthratehas
    surpassed5%(UNEP,2007).Industrialactivity,often
    shiftingfromotherregions,continuestogrow.Itisac-
    companiedbytheintensiveuseofresourcesthatexert
    considerablepressureonaquaticecosystems,which
    continuetodeteriorate.Inlate2008,theglobalfood,
    fuelandnancialcrisispushedmillionsofpeoplebe-
    lowthepovertylineintherecessionthatfollowed,but
    by2010,rapidgrowthresumedinChinaandIndiaand
    insomeothercountries.In2010,ESCAPnotedthat
    enhancedincomesfacilitateinvestmentsinmuch-
    neededtechnologicalchange,infrastructureandjob
    creation;however,currenteconomicgrowthpatterns
    increasethestressonlimitedresourcesandcompeti-
    tionforaccesstothem(ESCAP,2010a,p.3).
    Agricultureconsumesanaverageofabout80%ofthe
    regionsrenewablewaterresources,butitisfacedwith
    thechallengeofincreasingfoodproductionindegrad-
    edecosystems(APWF,2009).Inaddition,theirriga-
    tionsectorisgenerallyinefcient,anddemand-man-
    agementmechanismsareinefectivewheretheyexist.
    Waterqualityalsosufersfromtheimpactsofindustri-
    aldevelopment,urbanizationandagriculturalintensi-
    cation(APWF,2007).
    Water conicts
    Watercompetitionhasledtoincreasedwatercon-
    ictsintheregion,particularlyoverthepasttwodec-
    ades.Conictswithincountrieshavedominatedsince
    1990,withmorethan120,000water-relateddisputes
    inChinaaloneduringthisperiod.
    5
    Watermanagement
    efortsandresourcesinIndiaoftenfocusonconict
    managementbetweendiferentstates.Directconict
    mostcommonlyarisesatthelocallevel,andisoften
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    Food security is an
    important issue since
    about two-thirds of
    the worlds hungry
    people live in Asia.
    195 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    households,farms,industryandtheenvironment
    (ESCAP,2010a).
    TheecologicalcarryingcapacityoftheAsia-Pacic
    regionisalsoafectedbydeterioratingwaterqual-
    ity,withevenrelativelywater-richcountries(suchas
    Malaysia,Indonesia,BhutanandPapuaNewGuinea)
    facingurbanwatersupplyandqualityconstraints.
    Domesticsewageisaparticularconcernbecause
    itafectsecosystemsneardenselypopulatedareas.
    Approximately150to250millionm
    3
    perdayofun-
    treatedwastewaterfromurbanareasisdischarged
    formanyareasintheAsia-Pacicregion65%ofthe
    worldsundernourishedpeopleareconcentratedin
    sevencountries,veofwhichareintheAsia-Pacicre-
    gion:India,Pakistan,China,BangladeshandIndonesia
    (APWF,2009).
    Bothhighandlowwater-usergroupsareatriskof
    waterscarcitybecausewaterendowmentalonedoes
    notguaranteeasustainablewatersupplytosupport
    socio-economicdevelopment.Waterscarcitycanoc-
    curevenincountrieswithrichrenewableresourcesifit
    isnotproperlyconserved,usedanddistributedamong
    FIGURE 7.3
    Asia-Pacicwaterhotspots
    Compoundhotspotin6categories
    Compoundhotspotin5categories
    Compoundhotspotin3or4categories
    Compoundhotspotin1or2categories
    Nodataornotahotspot
    1 Increasing water scarcity threat
    2 High water utilization
    3 Deteriorating water quality
    4 Poor water quality and low water endowment
    5 Flood-prone countries
    6 Cyclone-prone countries
    7 Drought-prone countries
    8 Elevated ecosystem/Climate change risk
    9 Poor access to drinking water
    10 Poor access to sanitation
    Legend
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total
    Cambodia x x x x x x 6
    Indonesia x x x x x x 6
    Lao PDR x x x x x x 6
    Papua New Guinea x x x x x x 6
    Philippines x x x x x x 6
    India x x x x x 5
    Myanmar x x x x x 5
    Thailand x x x x x 5
    Uzbekistan x x x x x 5
    Bangladesh x x x x 4
    China x x x x 4
    Malaysia x x x x 4
    Pakistan x x x x 4
    Timor-Leste x x x x 4
    Viet Nam x x x x 4
    Afghanistan x x x 3
    Kazakhstan x x x 3
    Maldives x x x 3
    Mongolia x x x 3
    Nepal x x x 3
    Pacic Islands x x x 3
    DPRK x x 2
    Kyrgyzstan x x 2
    Tajikistan x x 2
    Turkmenistan x x 2
    Australia x 1
    Azerbaijan x 1
    Bhutan x 1
    Georgia x 1
    Iran x 1
    Republic of Korea x 1
    Sri Lanka x 1
    Prevalence
    (countries afected)
    6 2 5 14 15 13 17 19 4 12
    Compoundhotspots
    Sources: ESCAP (2006, 2010a); Dilley, et al. (2005); FAO AQUASTAT database (accessed 2010).
    196
    mostinthisarea,downfrom66%in1990to44%in
    2008(WHOUNICEF,2010).InIndiaalone,638million
    peoplestilldefecateintheopen.
    Climate change and extreme events
    TheAsia-Pacicistheworldsmostvulnerablere-
    gionwithrespecttonaturaldisasters,whichunder-
    mineeconomicdevelopmenttovaryingdegrees.
    Mucheconomicgrowthisgeneratedincoastaland
    ood-proneareas,whichareespeciallyvulnerableto
    typhoonsandrainstorms.Increasedclimatevariabil-
    ityandextremeweatherconditionsareexpectedto
    severelyafecttheregion,withoodsanddroughts
    predictedtoincreaseinbothmagnitudeandfrequen-
    cy.Excludingthoseafectedbytsunamis,anannual
    averageof20,451peoplewerekilledbywater-related
    disastersintheregionbetween2000and2009.The
    annualglobalaverageforthesameperiodwas23,651
    (CRED,2009).
    ThePacicssmallislanddevelopingstates(SIDS)are
    particularlyvulnerabletoenvironmentalnaturalhaz-
    ardssuchastropicalcyclones,typhoonsandearth-
    quakesturningintodisasters.Onemajortsunamior
    tropicalcyclonecannegateyearsofdevelopmentef-
    fort.Climatechangewillfurtherexacerbatethevulner-
    abilityofSIDS(andotherlow-lyingcoastalareas)with
    anticipatedsea-levelriseandtheriskofstormsurge
    andbeacherosion.
    Thestructureofgenderrelationsispartofthesocial
    andculturalcontextthatshapesacommunitysability
    topreparefor,copewith,andrecoverfromdisasters.
    Forexample,inmanyPacicislandsmenarerespon-
    sibleforactivitiesrelatedtotheoceanandwomenfor
    land-basedones.Theserolesarereectedintheway
    theyprepareforanapproachinghazardmensecure
    thephysicalstructures,suchascanoes,andwomense-
    curethefoodandfamilies.Thesediferentrolesneed
    tobetakenintoaccountwhenaddressingriskreduc-
    tionequitably(Herrmannetal.,2005).
    Theseobservationsaboutriskanduncertaintyraisethe
    issueofthesustainabilityofwatersupplyandsanita-
    tionsystems.Achievementsinprovidingbasicinfra-
    structure,forexample,shouldnotonlybeassessed
    againstaone-timecoveragetarget.Itisalsoimportant
    toensurethatwhatisbuiltisfunctional,reliable,af-
    fordable,responsivetoneeds,andnanciallysustain-
    able.Theavailableinformation,however,suggestsa
    regressioninachievements,withmanysystemsinthe
    intoopenwaterbodiesorleachedintothesubsoil.
    6

    Thishasconsequencesrangingfrompoorhuman
    healthandincreasedinfantmortality,towidespread
    environmentaldegradation.Degradedwatercourses
    incitiesexistbecauseofdemandsonland,alackof
    propersanitation,insufcientdrainage,orsimplya
    lackofappreciationoftheireconomic,environmental
    andecologicalvalues.
    Access to drinking water and sanitation
    Thereisunequalaccesstodrinkingwaterandsanita-
    tionservicesthroughouttheAsia-Pacicregion.This
    includesstarkcontrastsbetweenurbanandruralareas,
    andbetweenrichandpoorhouseholdswithsanita-
    tionbeingthemoststrikingdisparity.Evenifadequate
    accesstowaterandsanitationsystemsisestablished,
    thebuiltfacilitiesmustbenanciallysustainable,func-
    tional,reliable,afordable,responsivetoneeds,socially
    acceptableforbothgenders,andappropriateforchil-
    drenandadults.Manysocialprogrammesareprovid-
    ingsanitationfacilitiesthatmaybeincompatiblewith
    theneedsofwomen,forexample,includinglackof
    segregatedtoiletsinschools,whichcandirectlyafect
    howfrequentlygirlsattendschool.
    Theproportionoftheregionspopulationthathasac-
    cesstoanimproveddrinkingwatersourceincreased
    from73%to88%between1990and2008thatsan
    increaseof1.2billionpeople(ESCAP,2010a).China
    andIndiatogetheraccountfora47%shareofthe1.8
    billionpeoplegloballywhogainedaccesstoimproved
    drinkingwatersourcesoverthisperiod.Since1990,
    510millionpeopleinEastAsia,137millioninSouth
    Asia,and115millioninSouth-EastAsiagainedaccess
    topipedwaterconnectionsontheirpremises(WHO
    UNICEF,2010).
    However,thesituationregardingaccesstosanitation
    ismuchlessencouraging.Ofthe2.6billionpeople
    whodonotuseimprovedsanitationfacilities,72%live
    inAsia(WHOUNICEF,2010).Rapidprogressinim-
    provedsanitationoccurredinNorth-EastAsia,witha
    12%increaseinaccessbetween1990and2008,andin
    South-EastAsia,witha22%increase.Incontrast,the
    situationinSouthAsiaandSouth-WestAsiaisacon-
    cern.Althoughthenumberofpeoplewithsanitation
    accessdoubledsince1990,the2008averagecover-
    agewasstillonly38%,withthenumberwithoutaccess
    actuallyhigherthanin2005.Some64%oftheworld
    populationthatdefecateintheopenliveinSouthAsia.
    Thisisdespitethefactthatthepracticedecreased
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    197 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    providingbasicwaterandsanitationservicestoalland
    sustainingeconomicgrowth,whilealsoensuringenvi-
    ronmentalsustainability.
    Infrastructure responses
    WaterinfrastructureintheAsia-Pacicregionisshift-
    ingfrompredominantlyshort-termbenetplanning
    anddevelopment,toamorestrategicandlong-term
    benetplanningconceptthatalsoaddressesecologi-
    calefciencyineconomicdevelopment.Governments
    needtofacilitatethecreationofmarketconditions
    fordevelopingsustainableandeco-efcientwater
    infrastructureforbetterprovisionofwaterservices.
    Thisgoalisenvisagedfortheregioninthreedifer-
    entcontexts.Therstisasacomponentofeco-city
    developmentprogrammesforaddressingurbaniza-
    tionchallenges.Possibleeco-efcientinfrastructure
    solutionsinthiscontextincludeurbanriverrehabili-
    tation,modularwatertreatmentdesign,integrated
    storm-watermanagement,decentralizedwastewater
    treatment,andwaterre-useandrecycling.Thesec-
    ondcontextfocusesonruralareas,wherethedistance
    fromurbancentresmakestraditionalinfrastructure
    expensiveandinefcient.Modernirrigationsystems,
    decentralizeddrinkingwaterandsanitationservices,
    waterreuseandrecycling,andrainwaterharvesting
    aresomepromisingsolutionsintheruralcontext.The
    thirdcontextrelatestotheurgentneedtocleanthe
    regionswaterwaysthroughawastewaterrevolution.
    regionfunctioninginefectively,mostlyasaresultof
    alimitedcapacitytomanagethesesystemsandpoor
    nancialmanagement.
    7.3.3Responsemeasures
    Institutional, legal and planning responses
    TheAsia-Pacicregionhasincreasinglyappliedinte-
    gratedwaterresourcesmanagement(IWRM)princi-
    plesinpolicies,strategies,plansandlegalframeworks
    forwaterresourcesmanagementthroughoutthere-
    gion.Theiractualimplementationonthegroundhas
    provencomplicated,however,becauseoftheneedto
    involvewaterstakeholdersatalllevelsofgovernance
    andcivilsociety,andtoestablishacultureofinclusive
    consultationprocesses.
    VariousefortsarebeingmadeintheAsia-Pacic
    regiontofacilitateasustainedowofecosystemser-
    vices(seeBox2.2inSection2.5).Innovativepolicies
    tosupportpaymentforecosystemservicesarebeing
    established,orareunderconsideration,withexam-
    plesinVietNam,Indonesia,thePhilippinesandSri
    Lanka.Promotinghouseholdwatersecurity,recog-
    nizingtheneedtoadapttoclimatechangethreats,
    andinitiatingawastewaterrevolutionareproposed
    prioritiesforregionalcooperation,andarefunda-
    mentaltounblockingthedevelopmentaldifculties
    attributabletopoorwaterresourcesmanagementin
    manycountriesintheregion.Somecountrieshave
    introducedaspecicpolicytoprioritizesanitationin
    theirnationaldevelopmentplans.Examplesinclude
    ThailandsRuralEnvironmentalSanitationProgramme,
    whichhasbeenincorporatedintoitsnationaleco-
    nomicandsocialdevelopmentplansoverthelast40
    years,andtheTotalSanitationCampaignsintroduced
    inWestBengalandotherlocationsinSouthAsian
    countries(CSD,2008).
    TheAsia-Pacicregionisattemptingtoreverseun-
    sustainableconsumptionandproductionpatternsby
    embarkingonagreenerdevelopmentpath.China,for
    example,iscurrentlyamongtheworldstopexport-
    ersofgreentechnology.GreenGrowthwasadopted
    atthe5thMinisterialConferenceonEnvironmentand
    DevelopmentinAsiaandthePacicinMarch2005.It
    isthekeyregionalstrategyforinclusiveandsustain-
    abledevelopment,hasemergedasapromisingap-
    proachforpursuinggreenerdevelopmentgoals(also
    seeChapter1andChapter4).Ifputintooperation
    inwaterresourcesmanagement,GreenGrowthhas
    thepotentialtoaddressthedevelopmentdilemmaof
    Governments need to
    facilitate the creation
    of market conditions
    for developing
    sustainable and
    eco-efcient water
    infrastructure for
    better provision of
    water services.
    198
    Nonetheless,therehasbeenanincreaseinthecon-
    tributionofwatertosocialandeconomicdevelop-
    ment.Althoughisolatedadvancescanbeobservedin
    watermanagementinstitutions,variouscountrieshave
    undertakenambitiouswatermanagementreforms,
    perhapsmostnotablyBrazilandMexico,butalso,for
    example,Argentina,Chile,ColombiaandPeru.
    Themainissuesinwatermanagementfacingthe
    countriesoftheregionhavenotchangedsignicant-
    lyintherecentpast(seeBox7.11).Therehasbeena
    widespreadinabilitytoestablishinstitutionsthatare
    abletodealwithwatermanagementissuesunder
    conditionsofincreasingscarcityandconict.Therea-
    sonsforthislackofimprovementincludeweakman-
    agementinstitutions,insufcientoperationalcapacity,
    informality,absenceofself-nancingandconsequent
    dependenceonuctuatingpoliticalsupport,andlack
    ofreliableinformationinmostareasofwaterman-
    agement,includingontheresourceitselfanditsuses,
    usersandfutureneeds.
    Contrastsabound,however,andthesearenotonlydue
    tovariationsinclimateandhydrologyortothescale
    atwhichwatermanagementmustoperate(Brazilhas
    100,000timestheareaofDominica,forexample)but
    equallyormoresoareduetodiferencesinthenature
    andefectivenessofinstitutionalsystems,dissimilari-
    tiesinthedistributionanddemographicstructureof
    thepopulation,andsizeablevariationsinlevelsofin-
    come.Impressiveadvanceshavebeenmadeinsome
    countriesinspecicwatermanagementactivities;for
    example,thehighlevelofdevelopmentofurbanwater
    supplyandsewerageservicesinChile.
    7.4.1Thedrivingforcesandpressuresonwater
    resources
    WatermanagementinLAChasalwayshadtoconfront
    notjustdriversarisingwithinthewaterbox,butalso
    externaldriversafectingbothwatermanagementand
    theresourceitself.Themoresignicantexternaldriv-
    ersincludeeconomicevents,suchaschangingdomes-
    ticpolicies,internationalnancialcrises(suchasthat
    in20082009)andpoliticalinstability;moresubtle
    changesareproducedbyexternalinuencesrelatedto
    gradualeconomicandsocialchange.Extremeclimatic
    events,especiallyhurricanesintheCaribbean,have
    longhadanegativeinuenceonwatermanagement.
    Recently,newuncertaintiesrelatedtoglobalclimate
    changehavebeenaddedtothislist.
    Treatingwastewaterforre-useisanessentialconsid-
    eration.Centralizedwastewatertreatmenttypically
    requiresalargearea,substantialfundingandtechnical
    knowledgeforsustainedoperationandmaintenance.
    Insomeplaces,currenttechnologyforsmall,compact
    wastewatertreatmentplantshasimproved,ofering
    advantagesoverlarger,centralizedsystems.
    WaterresourcesmanagementintheAsia-Pacicre-
    gionappearstobeshiftingfromasupply-oriented
    approachtoamoredemand-managementapproach.
    Largesavingsinwater,energyandnancialresources
    areexpectedasaresultofincreasedefciencyandre-
    ducedconsumptionintheregion.Continuingchalleng-
    esfacingthedemand-managementapproachinclude
    evaluationofavailabilityanddemandinwatersheds,
    possiblereallocationorstorageexpansioninexist-
    ingreservoirs,balancingequityandefciencyinwater
    use,inadequatelegislativeandinstitutionalframe-
    works,andtherisingnancialburdenofagingwater
    infrastructures.
    Althoughtheimplementationofdemand-management
    measureshasbeenunevenacrosstheregion,interest
    inimprovingwater-useefciencycontinuestogrow.
    Householdwatersecurity,GreenGrowth,wastewater
    concernsandadaptationstoclimatechangearedriv-
    ingthisinterest.Singapore,forexample,reducedits
    urbandomesticwaterdemandsfrom176Lpercapita
    perdayin1994,to157Lpercapitaperdayin2007
    (Kiang,n.d.).LeakdetectionprogrammesinBangkok
    andManilahaveloweredestimatedunaccounted-for
    water,allowingnewinfrastructuredevelopmentto
    bepostponed(WWAP,2009,Chapter9).Since2008,
    SydneyWaterinAustraliahasoferedadualreticula-
    tionservicewherehousesintheHoxtonParkareaare
    giventwowatersuppliesonefordrinkingwater,and
    theotherarecycledsupplyforgeneraluse(Sydney
    Water,2011).
    7.4LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
    Thereisalongtraditionofwatermanagementin
    thecountriesofLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
    (LAC)(seeMap7.4),butwithmarkedcontrastsin
    itsefectivenessamongbothcountriesandsectors.
    Commonalitiesamongthecountriescanbeseenin
    theadvancesthathavebeenmade.However,thesead-
    vanceshavenotalwayshadthesamepaceandhave
    notyetresultedinuniversalincreasesinwateruseef-
    ciencyorinanyoverallimprovementinthelevelsof
    waterquality.
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    199 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    MAP 7.4
    UNECLACMemberStates
    Source: Economic and Social Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Map No. 3977 Rev. 4, May 2011. Department of Field Support,
    Cartographic Section, United Nations.
    Note: For the purposes of this chapter, the following ECLAC members are not considered part of the LAC region: Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands,
    Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom and United States of America. In addition, for the purposes of the chapter, only Aruba, British Virgin Islands and
    Cayman Islands are considered associate members of ECLAC.
    Manaus
    Belm Guayaquil
    Medelln
    Recife
    Rio de Janeiro
    So Paulo
    Lima
    Quito
    Santa F
    de Bogot
    Caracas
    La Paz
    Sucre
    Asuncin
    Montevideo
    Buenos Aires
    Braslia
    Paramaribo
    Port of Spain
    Panam
    San Jos
    Managua
    Tegucigalpa
    S
    a
    n
    S
    a
    lv
    a
    d
    o
    r

    Guatemala
    Belmopan
    Mexico
    Nassau
    La Habana
    Kingston
    P
    o
    r
    t
    -
    a
    u
    -
    P
    r
    in
    c
    e

    S
    a
    n
    t
    o

    D
    o
    m
    in
    g
    o

    G
    e
    o
    rg
    etown
    Cayenne
    Santiago
    ECLAC HQ
    VENEZUELA
    COLOMBIA
    ECUADOR
    URUGUAY
    PERU
    BOLIVIA
    B R A Z I L
    P
    A
    R
    A
    G
    U
    A
    Y

    A
    R
    G
    E
    N
    T
    I
    N
    A

    C
    H
    I
    L
    E

    SURINAME
    French Guiana
    G
    U
    Y
    A
    N
    A

    JAMAICA
    HAITI
    DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC
    CUBA
    PANAMA
    COSTA RICA
    NICARAGUA
    HONDURAS
    BELIZE
    GUATEMALA
    MEXI CO
    UNI TED STATES OF AMERI CA
    BAHAMAS
    P
    u
    e
    r
    t
    o
    R
    ico
    SAINT KITTS
    AND NEVIS
    ANTIGUA AND
    BARBUDA
    TRINIDAD AND
    TOBAGO
    SAINT VINCENT AND
    THE GRENADINES
    BARBADOS
    GRENADA
    SAINT LUCIA
    DOMINICA
    Montserrat
    Netherlands
    Antilles
    U
    S
    V
    ir
    g
    in Is.
    B
    r
    itish Virgin Is.
    EL SA
    L
    V
    A
    D
    O
    R

    Aruba
    Turks and
    Caicos Is.
    Cayman Is.
    Galapagos Is.
    Isla San Flix
    Isla San Ambrosio
    Islas
    Juan Fernndez
    Guadeloupe
    Martinique
    Falkland Islands
    (Malvinas) *
    Gul f of Mexi co
    Cari bbean Sea
    P A C I F I C O C E A N
    A T L A N T I C O C E A N
    0
    0 500 1000 1500 2000 km
    500 1000 mi
    The boundaries and names shown and the designations used
    on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance
    by the United Nations.
    *A dispute exists between the Governments of Argentina and the United
    Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concerning sovereignty over
    the Falkland Islands (Malvinas).
    Capital city
    ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR
    LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
    Antigua and Barbuda
    Argentina
    Bahamas
    Barbados
    Belize
    Bolivia
    Brazil
    Canada
    Chile
    Colombia
    Costa Rica
    Cuba
    Dominica
    Dominican Republic
    Ecuador
    El Salvador
    France
    Grenada
    Guatemala
    Guyana
    Haiti
    Honduras
    Italy
    Jamaica
    Mexico
    Netherlands
    Nicaragua
    Panama
    Paraguay
    Peru
    Portugal
    Saint Kitts and Nevis
    Saint Lucia
    Saint Vincent and the
    Grenadines
    Spain
    Suriname
    Trinidad and Tobago
    United Kingdom
    United States of America
    Uruguay
    Venezuela
    Aruba
    British Virgin Islands
    Montserrat
    Netherlands Antilles
    Puerto Rico
    United States Virgin Islands
    Members:
    Associate members:
    110


    100


    90

    80


    30


    20


    10


    10


    80

    70

    60


    50

    40

    30

    20

    10


    10

    20

    30

    40


    100


    90


    30


    40


    50


    20


    Equator
    200
    FIGURE 7.4
    Increaseinurbanpopulationsbetween1970and2010
    facilitiesmayendupover-designed,hampering
    theiroperations.Thiscanposedifcultquestionsin
    countriesstillexpandingtheirwaterandsewerage
    infrastructure.
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanistheworldsmost
    urbanizeddevelopingregion;morethan80%ofthe
    populationliveintownsandcities(ECLAC,2010a)
    (Figure7.4).Theurbanpopulationhastripledoverthe
    past40yearsandisexpectedtogrowto609million
    by2030.Therearemanycitieswithmorethan1mil-
    lioninhabitants,andinsomecountries,ahighconcen-
    trationinjustoneortwolargecities(UNEP,2010a).
    Arecenttrendhasbeenthegrowthofpopulationin
    medium-sizedandsmallcities.Therehasalsobeen
    recentlyanincreasingsettlementofwhathashistori-
    callybeensparselypopulatedland,particularlyinthe
    AmazonandOrinocoriverbasins.
    Economic development
    Economicandsocialchangeshaveobviousconse-
    quencesforwateruseandthedemandsplacedon
    theresource.Theinuenceofthesechangesgoes
    beyondtheshort-termefectofglobalnancialcri-
    ses,andbeyondnationaleconomicunrestsuchas
    theso-calledMexicopesocrisisof1994orthecol-
    lapseoftheArgentineaneconomyin2001(Kleinand
    Demographic change
    Morethan8%oftheworldspopulationlivesinLAC
    some581millionpeoplewithhalfoftheminBraziland
    Mexico(UNEP,2007).Theregionisgoingthroughape-
    riodofrapiddemographicchange.Followingthegreat
    migrationtothecitiesinthe1960sand1970s,themain
    characteristicofthecurrentdemographicsituationisa
    rapiddeclineinbirthratesresultinginaslowinginthe
    rateofpopulationgrowthcurrently1.3%fortheregion
    asawhole,whichisexpectedtofalltolessthan0.5%
    by2050.Ifcurrenttrendscontinue,thepopulationwill
    evenbegintofallabsolutelyinsomecountries,notably
    CubaandUruguay(CELADE,2007).Incontrast,annual
    populationgrowthisstillabove2%inseveralCentral
    Americancountries.Increasingpopulationwillcontinue
    tocontributetorisingdemandsforwaterthroughout
    theregion(UNEP,2010a).
    Thedeclineinbirthratesalsomeansthat,evenif
    thetotalnationalpopulationremainsstable,many
    regionswilllosepopulation,especiallythosemore
    ruralandisolated.Smallerpopulationstendtomean
    reducedhumanandnancialresourcestosup-
    porttheoperationandmaintenanceofinfrastruc-
    ture.Thisisparticularlyimportantwheremanage-
    mentresponsibilitiesaredecentralized.Inthecase
    ofwatersupplyandsewerageitcanalsomeanthat
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    Source: UNEP (2010a, p. 28, with statistics from the CEPAL STAT database [http://www.pnuma.org/geo/geoalc3/ing/gracosEn.php]).
    RuralCaribbean
    RuralMesoamerica
    RuralSouthAmerica
    UrbanCaribbean
    UrbanMesoamerica
    UrbanSouthAmerica
    100
    90
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    0
    1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
    (
    P
    e
    r

    c
    e
    n
    t
    )
    201 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    WiththeexceptionsofMexicoandsomeofthesmall
    countriesofCentralAmerica,thecountriesofthe
    regionbasemuchoftheireconomyontheexportof
    naturalresources.Theglobaldemandfortheseprod-
    uctshasincreasednotablyinrecentyears.Moreover,
    muchoftheproductionofthesegoodsisnanced
    byexternalcapitalandmanyofthefacilitiesare
    foreign-owned.Theresultisthatthemajorengineof
    economicgrowthintheregionwithheavydemands
    onthewaterresourcesissubjecttomanyfactors
    outsidethedirectcontrolofthegovernmentsofthe
    countriesoftheregion.
    Forwatermanagement,thisdependenceonmany
    naturalresource-basedactivitiesiscomplicatedby
    theirlocation.Theexpansionofcopperandgoldmin-
    inginChileandPeruhasmainlyoccurredinaridar-
    easandhasledtocompetitionforscarcewaterwith
    bothexportagricultureandtheneedsoftheindig-
    enouspopulation.Tourismdemandhasincreased
    waterstressonmanyCaribbeanIslands(Box7.9).
    Cofeeproductionuseslargequantitiesofwater
    anditsprocessingcanseriouslyafectwaterquality.
    Similarissuesarisewithmanyothernaturalresourc-
    es.Onepotentialfuturedemandforirrigationcould
    comefromtheproductionofbiofuels,althoughin
    Brazil,theonlycurrentsignicantproducer,sugar
    caneproductionisrainfedandonly3.5%irrigation
    demandisforbiofuelproduction(deFraitureetal.,
    2008).
    Coutio,1996).Sucheventsmayhamperorinterrupt
    thedevelopmentofongoingprogrammes,butthey
    rarelyhavelong-termefects.Farmoreimportantare
    thenewdemandsforwaterarisingfromlong-term
    changesinbothLACsocietiesandtheglobalecono-
    my.Thisisparticularlythecasewithsuchapparently
    disparatechangesindemandsasthatfortourism
    intheCaribbeanandthatforenergyalmostevery-
    where,bothofwhichtendtobecloselyrelatedto
    risingpercapitaincomewithintheregionandinthe
    restoftheworld(OECD,2009).Sometimesthesein-
    creasingdemandsforgoodsandservicesfromwater
    resourcedevelopmentproduceconictswhichcan
    poseseriousproblemsforwatermanagementagen-
    cies.Thereareanumberofexamples,particularly
    regardingtheconstructionoflargehydroelectricity
    generatingplants:theglobalcontroversysurrounding
    thedecisionoftheBraziliangovernmenttoapprove
    theconstructionoftheBeloMonteDamontheXingu
    tributaryoftheAmazonisonesuchexample,andthe
    proposedconstructionofplantsintheRoBakerin
    Chileisanother.
    Aspercapitaincomesincreaseandthemiddleclass
    grows,povertylevelshavedroppedintheregion.In
    manycountries,halfthepopulationhasincomes1.8
    timesabovethepovertylevel,andinUruguay,Chile
    andCostaRicaitisalmosttwo-thirds(ECLAC,2009).
    However,povertyremainsanunresolvedissueinall
    LatinAmericaandmostoftheCaribbean.Although
    averagepovertyrateshavefallensteadilyoverthepast
    20years,anestimated30%ofthepopulationofthe
    region,orsome177millionpeople,stillliveinpoverty,
    and12%areconsideredextremelypoor
    7
    (ECLAC,2011).
    Decisionsregardingwatermanagementandallocation
    havearoletoplayinpovertyreductionthroughboth
    theprovisionofpublicutilityservicesandthecreation
    offavourableconditionsforeconomicdevelopment,as
    manyeconomicactivities,suchasagriculture,mining
    andelectricitygeneration,dependonwater.
    Oneresultoftheemergenceofalargermiddleclass
    hasbeenincreasingdemandstogivemoreemphasis
    totheresolutionofenvironmentalconicts.Examples
    includethecitedoppositiontodamconstruction,the
    acceptanceoftarifincreasestonancetheambi-
    tiousprogrammeofurbanwastewatertreatmentin
    Chile(bytheendof2010almost87%ofurbansewage
    wasreceivingtreatment[SISS,2011]),andthedecon-
    taminationplanoftheMatanza-Riachuelobasinin
    Argentina.
    One result of the
    emergence of a larger
    middle class has been
    increasing demands
    to give more emphasis
    to the resolution
    of environmental
    conicts.
    202
    amongotherareas,havegreatdifcultymeetingtheir
    waterneeds.Populationgrowth,expandedindustrial
    activity,especiallymininginAndeancountries,and
    highirrigationdemandhaveledtoaten-foldincrease
    intotalwaterextractioninthelastcentury.Between
    1990and2004,extractiongrewby76%(UNEP,2010a).
    Bythemid-2000s,itamountedtosome263km
    3
    per
    year,withMexicoandBraziltogetheraccountingfor
    justoverhalfthatamount(UNEP,2007).
    7.4.2Challenges,risksanduncertainties
    Themostsignicantrisksanduncertaintiesfacingwa-
    termanagementinLACarelikelytostemfrom
    theimpactofglobaleconomicevents;
    continuinggrowthindomesticwaterusewithin-
    creasingurbanizationandrisinglivingstandards;
    theconsequentneedtoimprovethequalityandex-
    tendtheprovisionofwaterandsanitationservices,
    especiallytourbanandperi-urbanareas;and
    theimpactsofclimatechange,especiallyonex-
    tremeeventsthatafectwater.
    Theefectivenessofimprovementsinwaterresources
    management,servicesandinfrastructure,associated
    investments,andtherelevantlegislationandorgani-
    zationareverydependentonmacroeconomicpoli-
    ciesandtheenvironmenttheycreate.Macroeconomic
    policyhasapervasiveinuenceonthestructureof
    incentivesandperformanceintheentirewatersector
    (DonosoandMelo,2004,p.4).Unfavourablemacro-
    economiccontexterodeseventhebestwatermanage-
    mentpolicies,whichhasbeenevidentinthecountries
    oftheregion.Forexample,highratesofinationcan
    destroyattemptstodevelopefectivechargingsys-
    temsforwateruseortoprotectwaterquality.Similarly,
    inthelongrun,nowaterpoliciescanbesufcientto
    compensatefortheproblemsafectingsustainable
    wateruse,reectedinthelackofmaintenanceofinfra-
    structurecausedbyeconomicstagnationorinunder-
    investmentinexpansionbecauseofmacroeconomic
    instability.
    Conversely,successfulmacroeconomicpolicieslead-
    ingtohighratesofgrowth,asinChileinthe1990s
    andinArgentinaandPerumorerecently,alsoim-
    posechallengestowatermanagersasnewdemands
    canemergerapidly.Traditionalpolicesoftenprove
    unabletoresolvetheproblemscreatedbythenew
    economicenvironmentandinnovativeinstitution-
    alapproachescanberequiredaswatermanage-
    mentbecomesmorecomplex.Thiscanbeespecially
    Theuncertaintyinthelevelandnatureofdemandsof
    theglobalmarketandtheirchangingnaturehaveal-
    wayscomplicatedwatermanagementinLACaslocal
    economiesexpand,contractandadjustaccordingto
    theuctuationsoftheglobaleconomyandsochange
    theenvironmentinwhichmanagementdecisionsmust
    betakenandpoliciesapplied.
    Water availability and use
    Theannualaverageavailabilityofwaterpercapitain
    theregionamountstoabout7,200m
    3
    .However,itis
    only2,466m
    3
    perpersonintheCaribbean.TheLesser
    Antilles,whererainwateristheprimarywatersource,
    sufersthemostacutewaterstress(UNEP,2010a).
    IncontinentalLatinAmerica,overalldemandon
    waterresourcesremainslowandspatiallyconcen-
    trated.Waterwithdrawalsareestimatedtobeabout
    1%ofavailablewater,buttheyaremuchhigherin
    theCaribbeaneveninthemainlandregion,
    8
    they
    areequivalentto14%oftheavailablewater(ECLAC,
    2010a).Populationconcentrations,however,do
    notalwayscoincidewithplentifulwatersources.
    Approximatelyone-thirdofthepopulationinthere-
    gionlivesinaridandsemi-aridareas.NorthernMexico,
    North-easternBrazil,coastalPeruandnorthernChile,
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    BOX 7.9
    WatermanagementinBarbados
    Barbados,withapopulationofabout290,000,isone
    oftheworldsmostdenselypopulatedcountries.Itis
    adrought-proneisland,almostentirelydependenton
    groundwater,andtheavailablewatersupplyisless
    than390m
    3
    perpersonperyear.Itisacountryliving
    underconditionsofabsolutewaterscarcity.
    Universalwatermetering,viaavariabletarifbased
    onconsumption,hasbeenintroduced,butthetarif
    wassettoolow.Somefairlysuccessfulwateref-
    ciencymethodshavebeenintroducedbutwatercon-
    sumptionhasincreasedwithrisinglivingstandards.
    Tourism,whichisveryimportanttotheeconomyof
    theisland,isanespeciallylargewateruser.Overall,
    watermanagementhasworkedwellalthoughthe
    waterauthorityhassuferedfrompoormanagement.
    Recently,BarbadosreceivedaloanfromtheInter-
    AmericanDevelopmentBanktoimprovethewater
    authoritysefciency,coastalzonemanagementand
    climatechangeadaptation(IDB,2009).
    Source: BWA (2009).
    203 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    expectedtocontinuetoexpand.Signicantvolumes
    ofwaterarerequiredforextraction,especiallyfor
    preciousmetals,copperandnickel.Toxicwasteand
    efuentsfromminingcanrunintowaterbodies,and
    thisisoneoftheregionsmainsourcesofwaterpol-
    lution,aswellasposinghealthandsafetyrisksforlo-
    calpopulations(MirandaandSauer,2010).
    Agriculturaldemandswillalsoincrease.Around14%
    oftheregionscultivatedareaisunderirrigation(FAO,
    2011)andirrigationhasexpandedsteadilysincethe
    1960s.Giventheintentionofanumberofcountriesin
    theregiontoplayamajorroleinsatisfyingincreased
    globaldemandsforfoodandbiofuels,irrigationwill
    needtobecomemorewater-efcient.
    Onthewhole,theregionisdoingwellinprovidingim-
    provedwaterandsanitationforitsurbanpopulations,
    butisdoingmuchlesswellforitsruralpopulations.
    However,manycitiesstillhavesubstandarddrink-
    ingwatersuppliesandseweragenetworks.Growing
    urbanpopulations,especiallyinmedium-sizedcit-
    ies,addstotheriskofnotmeetingwatersupplyand
    sanitationneeds.Expandingurbanareasalsonotonly
    requiremorewaterfordomesticsupply,butalsoare
    likelytoexpandontooodplainsandintocatchment
    areas.Theseincreasingdemandscancreatesignicant
    risksforwatermanagementindealingwithlocalwater
    scarcitiesandconictsamongwaterusers(Box7.10).
    Climate change and extreme events
    ManypartsofLAChavealwaysbeensubjecttoava-
    rietyofextremeweathereventssuchasoodsand
    droughts,especiallyclimatevariabilityrelatedtotheEl
    Nio-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)phenomenon.The
    frequency,durationandintensityofextremeweath-
    ereventsareexpectedtorisewithclimatechange,
    increasingtheneedforriskmanagement.Figure7.5
    showsthattheseeventshavealreadyincreasedsince
    the1970s.
    Flashoodsanddroughtsafecttheproductivityof
    waterecosystems,livingconditionsandhumanwel-
    fareinbothood-proneareasandaridregions(IPCC,
    2007).Urbanoodingisaperennialprobleminthe
    region.Forexample,oodsoccurinmostcitiesinthe
    LaPlatabasin.Thelackofstormsewersinmanycities
    exacerbatestheproblem.Insomedenselypopulated
    cities,suchasCaracasandRiodeJaneiro,wheremuch
    housingislocatedonsteepslopes,landslidesworsen
    theimpactofoods.
    criticalinsmallercountrieswherelimitedresourc-
    esavailable,particularlythoseofprofessionaland
    technicalstaf,meaningthatinstitutionalchange
    canonlycomeslowly.
    Future demands and competition for water
    Aseconomicgrowthcontinuesintheregionand
    globaldemandsforitsmining,agriculturalanden-
    ergyresourcesincrease,consequentlysowillthe
    demandforwater.Forexample,wateruseforenergy
    canbeexpectedtorisethroughouttheregioninline
    witheconomicgrowth.Hydropowerproduces53%of
    theregionselectricity,andinstalledcapacitygrewby
    7%between2005and2008.Hydropowerisexpected
    toprovideasignicantproportionofthenewenergy
    demand(UNEP,2010a).Balancingcurrentandfuture
    waterdemandsbetweencompetinguses(including
    ecosystemsandtheirservices)willbecomeanissue.
    Internationaldemandhasledtoa56%increasein
    mineralextractioninrecentyears,anddespitethe
    currentslowdownintheglobaleconomy,itcanbe
    BOX 7.10
    CompetitionforwaterintheCopiapoValley
    TheCopiapoValleyinNorthernChileisanexam-
    pleoftheconictsthatcanarisefromlarge-scale
    investmentstoserveglobalmarketsinareaswhere
    waterisscarce.Theregionisthesiteofanincreas-
    ingnumberofcopperandothermines(whichare
    evenconsideringseawaterdesalinationtomeettheir
    futuredemands),butitalsoproduceslargevolumes
    ofexportcrops,particularlytablegrapesallinad-
    ditiontothewaterneededforhumansupplywhich
    isalsoontherise.Thevalleyssurfacewatershave
    longbeencommittedandthereisincreasingcompe-
    titionforgroundwateramongthefruitfarmers.Wells
    aredugeverdeeperandextractionratesexceedre-
    charge.Chilesgenerallyhighlevelofgovernanceof
    wateruserorganizationsandtheoperationofwater
    marketshavenotpreventedtheproblem.Thetrading
    ofwaterrightshashadlittleinuenceinrelievingthe
    wateruseconictsinthevalley.Theforminwhich
    groundwaterrightsaredened,lackofcontrolsand
    theimpossibilitytoreachconsensusonthemeasures
    tobeadoptedandtoefectivelyimplementthem
    (free-riding)havecontributedtothecurrentstateof
    over-exploitationofwaterresources.
    Sources: Personal communications in 2011 in Santiago, Chile with
    Michael Hantke-Domas and Humberto Pea.
    204
    FIGURE 7.5
    Frequencyofhydrometeorologicalevents,19702007
    repercussionsonthePantanal,oneoftheworldslarg-
    estwetlands,whichstoreswaterandregulatesowsin
    theParaguayRiveranditstributaries,helpingmitigate
    droughtsandoods(Roy,BarrandVenema,2010).
    TheregionspoorestcountriesinCentralAmerica,the
    CaribbeanandtheAndeanregion,withrelativelyweak
    watermanagementcapacities,willbeatthehighest
    riskfromtheefectsofclimatechangeandextreme
    events.ThemostseriousexampleisHaiti,whichis
    particularlyvulnerabletoextremeeventsbecauseof
    deforestation,difculttopography,povertyandalack
    ofpublicinfrastructure(ECLAC,2010a).
    Inadequatehydrologicalandmeteorologicalobser-
    vationnetworkshamperresponsetoextremeevents.
    Onthepositiveside,lessonslearnedfromadapting
    totheconsequencesof,forexample,ENSOeventsin
    theregion(e.g.inPeru)andthecycleofdroughtsand
    wetyearsinthedroughtpolygonofNorth-eastern
    Brazil,haveledtotechnologicalinnovationsthatare
    applicabletowatermanagementinthefaceofclimate
    change,andthesehavealsoledtoincreasedhuman
    capacity(NOAA,n.d.).Extremeeventswouldseemto
    bringonlycosts,aslivesarelostandwaterandother
    infrastructureisdamagedordestroyed.However,if
    waterinfrastructureresistsseriousdamageorcan
    berestoredquickly,thenthekeyroleofwaterand
    Theregionsglaciersarealreadyrecedingbecauseof
    climatechange.Glacierretreatafectsthewatersup-
    plyofanestimated30millionpeopleintheregion
    (UNEP,2010a).Some60%ofQuitos(Ecuador)and
    30%ofLaPazs(Bolivia)watercomesfromglaciers.
    GlaciersinPeruhavelost7billionm
    3
    ofwatera
    quantitythatcouldsupplyLimafor10years.Droughts
    alreadyoccurregularly,andbetween2000and2005
    theycausedseriouseconomiclossesandafected1.23
    millionpeople(UNEP,2010a).
    Thenumberofpeoplelivinginalreadywater-stressed
    watershedsintheabsenceofclimatechangeisesti-
    matedat22million.TheIPCC(2008)expectsthatwith
    climatechange,thisnumberwillincreasetobetween
    12and81millioninthe2020sandtobetween79and
    178millioninthe2050s.Modelsalsoprojectanin-
    creaseinthenumberofpeopleatriskofmalariaand
    dengueduetochangesinthegeographicallimitsof
    transmission.
    Climatechangeislikelytodamagetheimportanttour-
    ismindustryoftheCaribbeanislands(UNEP,2007).
    Sealevelriseisalsopredictedtostartafectingsmall
    islandstates,aswellascontinentalcoastalareasand
    riverregimes,contributingtothedeteriorationinthe
    quality,quantityandavailabilityofwater(ECLAC,
    2010b).Climatechangeisexpectedtohaveadverse
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    Source: UNEP (2010a, p. 40, with statistics from the CEPAL STAT database [http://www.pnuma.org/geo/geoalc3/ing/gracosEn.php]).
    Forestres
    Extreme
    temperatures
    Drought
    Landslides
    Storms
    Floods
    500
    450
    400
    350
    300
    250
    200
    150
    100
    50
    0
    19701979 19801989 19901999 20002007
    N
    u
    m
    b
    e
    r

    o
    f

    e
    v
    e
    n
    t
    s
    205 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    tocontrolpollutionhasproducedmixedresults.For
    example,itisnotclearthattheintroductionofcharges
    forwastewaterdischargesinColombiahasbeenthede-
    terminingfactorinreducingwaterpollution.
    Thereremainmanyproblemstoberesolved,including
    therecurringissueofunder-nancingwatersupplyand
    sanitationservicessothatanygainsinprovisionare
    negated,oratleastreduced,bylackofmaintenance,
    throughthelowlevelsofoperatingefciencyandthe
    failuretoadequatelyensuresustainablenancing.Lack
    ofmaintenanceleadstolargelossesinpipedwater
    systems;forexample,inCubathegovernmentesti-
    mateslossesindistributiontoamounttoatleasthalfof
    thewaterleavingthetreatmentplants(BusinessNews
    America,2010).EveninChile,fewsystemshaveunac-
    countedforwaterunder30%(SISS,2011).
    7.4.3Responsemeasures
    Institutional, legal and planning responses
    ThegreatestchallengeforwatermanagementinLAC
    istocontinuetoimproveoverallgovernance,afact
    whichgovernmentsareawareof(ComunidadAndina
    deNaciones,2010).Respondingtothesechalleng-
    esrequiresinstitutionalarrangementsforefectively
    water-relatedservicesislikelytowininpublicpercep-
    tionandwillraiseitsinuencewithingovernment.
    Access to drinking water and sanitation
    Overthepasttwodecadestherehasbeenaslowbut
    steadyincreaseinmostcountriesofLACintheprovi-
    sionofbothwatersupplyandsanitation.By2008,im-
    provedwatersupplywasavailableto97%oftheurban
    populationand80%oftheruralpopulation(86%and
    55%inthecaseofsanitation),morethanmeetingthe
    MDGsattheregionallevel(WHOandUNICEF,2010).
    Theseaggregatestatistics,however,hidesignicant
    variationsinthequalityoftheservices.Inmanycoun-
    tries,thewatersupplyandsanitationservicesare
    plaguedbywhathasbeendenedasaviciouscircle
    oflowquality.Politicalinterference,poormanage-
    mentandlowtarifsallconspiretoproducelowquality
    services,andpoormaintenanceleadstointerruptions
    insupplyandlowpressure,bothofwhichcanpro-
    ducecontaminationwithinthesystemorthereleaseof
    untreatedwastewatersfromsewagetreatmentplants
    (Corrales,2004).
    Thereremainlargevariationsinaccesstoserviceswithin
    countries.Forexample,inCentralandSouthernMexico,
    HondurasandNicaragua,therearemanymunicipali-
    tieswherelessthan10%ofthepopulationhaveaccess
    todrinkingwater.Insanitation,thedenitionofwhat
    improvedsanitationcomprisesisverygeneralsothat
    thepublishedstatisticsprovidelittleguidancetothe
    realsituationinmanycountriesoftheregion(ECLAC,
    2010a).Itisestimatedthatalmost40millionpeoplestill
    lackevenminimalaccesstosecurewater,andsome120
    lackaccesstosanitation.Insomeareas,thecostofwa-
    terisrisingasaresultofinefcientserviceprovision,in-
    creasingdemandandevermoreintractableaccessibility
    issues.Often,thepoorestandmostvulnerablepeople
    enduppayingthemostforwater,astheydependon
    expensivebutoftenpoor-qualitywaterpurchasedfrom
    tanktrucks(UNEP,2010a).
    Undeniably,therehasbeenimprovementinmostcoun-
    tries,butthisinturnhasbroughttotheforeotheris-
    sues.Itisestimated,fortheregionasawhole,thatat
    bestonly28%ofsewageistreatedbeforedischarge,
    leadingtoseriouscontaminationofwatercourses,in-
    cludingthesea,frombothsewageoutfallsandindus-
    trialdischargesfromurbanareas(Lentini,2008).The
    principalexceptionisChile,wherewastewatertreat-
    mentwillsoonbeuniversal(Box7.11).Toooftenthepo-
    liticalandtechnicalcomplexityofintroducingmeasures
    BOX 7.11
    InvestmentinsanitaryinfrastructureinChile
    HighlevelsofinvestmentareamajorfactorinChilessuc-
    cessinprovidingsuperiorwaterandsanitationservices
    totheurbanpopulation.Between1999and2008,Chile
    investedmorethanUS$2.8billioninthewatersupplyand
    sanitationsector,inadditiontomillionsincontrollingin-
    dustrialpollutionandbuildingdedicatedstorm-drainage
    networks.Animportantimpetuswasthegovernmentde-
    cisiontoprotectitsexportofagriculturalproducts.
    Themainfactorsexplainingthesuccessofthereformsare
    (i)thecreationofsolidandhighqualityinstitutionswith
    along-termvision;(ii)disciplineincriteriaforinvesting
    scalresources;(iii)thatthesectorhasalwaysbeenman-
    agedresponsiblyandgivenhighefectivepriority;(iv)
    thatreformsweretheresultofabroadconsensusbuilt
    upatboththepoliticalandtheprofessionallevel;and(v)
    thestrategyofgradualchangewasgovernedbyrealistic
    andpragmaticjudgmentandaconcernforensuringover-
    allcoherenceandkeepingsightofthecountrysactual
    capacities.
    Source: Valenzuela and Jouravlev (2007).
    206
    protectingpublicinterest;deningandenforcingwater
    userightsanddischargepermits;settingstandards,
    controlandinspectionmechanisms;andmobilizing
    signicantnancialresources.
    Ifwatermanagementistorespondtothemanyneeds
    forimprovement,governmentsmustestablishaclear
    separationofpolicyandregulatoryactivitiesfromday-
    to-dayoperations,improveincentivesforefciency,
    promotemanagementtraining,adoptgreatertrans-
    parencyindecision-making,anddevelopbettersys-
    temsforconictresolutionthroughaclearframework,
    increasingtheparticipationofstakeholdersinman-
    agementdecisions.
    Themagnitudeofthechallengeshouldnotdeterwater
    managersanddecision-makersfromconfrontingthem
    andmakingeveryeforttofurtherstrengthenwater
    managementwithinthesocialandeconomicsec-
    torsthatdependuponit.Afewcountrieshaveunder-
    takenlarge-scalereformsintheirwatermanagement
    institutions,notablyMexico,ChileandBrazil.Insome
    instances,however,thereremainproblemswithimple-
    mentation,asinBrazil,wherechargesforbulkwa-
    teranduserfeesarenotbeingcollectedonaregular
    basis(Benjamn,MarquesandTinker,2005).Inother
    countries,institutionsoftendonothavethecapacity
    tosucceedinundertakingmajorreformorconsensus
    inthiseldcontinuestobeelusive.
    Therehavebeenanumberofinterestingexperiences
    intheregionoverthepastfewdecadesintheestab-
    lishmentofwaterinstitutionsoutsidesectoralminis-
    tries.Forexample,inMexicowaterresourcesareman-
    agedbytheNationalWaterCommission(CONAGUA);
    andBrazilrecentlysetuptheNationalWaterAgency
    (ANA)withtheprincipalobjectiveofovercomingtra-
    ditionalconictsandlimitationsimposedbyasystem
    inwhich,untilrecently,waterhadbeentheresponsibil-
    ityoffunctionalministries.Otherexamplesofinsti-
    tutionsthatarenotdirectlylinkedtothefunctional
    aspectsofwaterallocationandmanagementinclude
    theMinistryofEnvironment,HousingandTerritorial
    DevelopmentinColombia;theWaterResources
    AuthorityinJamaica;theMinistryofEnvironmentand
    NaturalResourcesinVenezuela;andtheGeneralWater
    DirectorateoftheMinistryofPublicWorksinChile.
    Reformofwaterlawsisbeingdiscussedinmostcoun-
    tries,butinpractice,innovationsareslowtomaterial-
    izeunderreal-worldconditions(SolanesandJouravlev,
    2006).Inrecentyears,newwaterlegislationhasbeen
    adoptedinsomecountries(e.g.someprovincesof
    Argentina,Nicaragua,Honduras,Peru,Uruguayand
    Venezuela)andseveralothershavereformedtheir
    waterlaws(e.g.ChileandMexico).Commontenden-
    ciesincludeexplicitadoptionoftheintegratedwater
    resourcemanagementparadigm,improvementsinwa-
    tergovernance,creationofwaterauthoritiesandriver
    basinorganizations,andattentiontopublicorwater
    usersparticipation,waterresourcesplanningandeco-
    nomicinstruments.This,althoughintheearlystages
    ofimplementation,isamajorchangeinhowsome
    countriesintheregionmanagetheirwaterresources.
    Virtuallyallcountrieshavereformedthewatersup-
    plyandsanitationsector,withemphasisoninstitu-
    tionalseparationofthefunctionsofsectoralpolicy-
    making,economicregulationandserviceprovision;
    extensionofthedecentralizationprocess;aninterest
    inprivateparticipation,althoughthistrendwaslater
    reversedwiththeexitoflargeinternationalprivate
    operatorsfrommostcountriesandrenationalization
    ofmanyservices;formulationofspecicregulatory
    frameworks;andtherequirementthatservicesshould
    movetowardsbeingself-nancingandthatsubsidy
    arrangementsshouldbesetupforlow-incomegroups.
    Unfortunately,inmanycases,reformshavefailedto
    takeaccountofthestructurallimitationsofnational
    economiesaswellasofsoundprinciplesinthearea
    ofpublicinterest,economicsofserviceprovisionand
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    As for private sector
    participation, regional
    experience indicates
    that it is not the
    magic formula for
    addressing the multiple
    problems that afect
    the provision of water
    supply and sanitation
    services.
    207 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    Theseinitiativesshowthatitispossibletoreachaba-
    sicconsensusonwhatshouldbedonesothatpropos-
    alscanbemadetogovernmentsforreforminwater
    management.Itisamistaketothinkthatcomplex
    problemscanbesolvedonlybytop-downinitiativesor
    throughthecreationofneworganizationsandextrap-
    olatingfromtheexperienceofefectivelegislationand
    organizationalstructuresthatwereachievedelsewhere
    onlyafterasignicantefortofcoordination.
    Itisnotsufcienttohavereformproposalsthatare
    draftedonlybyexperts:itisessentialthatanyproposals
    havethewidestpublicsupportifreformistobeplaced
    onthepoliticalagenda.Waterexpertscaninformthe
    processtowardsbuildingaconsensusonthedirection
    tobefollowed.Ifsuchaconsensusdoesnotexist,no
    trueclimateofcondencecanbecreatedforchange
    andanyproposedreform,orevenadoptedlegislation,
    willneverproduceresults.Thechallengeistoopenwa-
    termanagementtosocietyasawhole.Indoingsothe
    watersectorcanbuildonitspreviousachievementsto
    continuetomakesustainablecontributionstothebet-
    termentofsocietyinallcountriesoftheLACregion.
    7.5ArabandWesternAsiaregion
    The22countriesoftheArabregion,includingthe14
    membersoftheUnitedNationsEconomicandSocial
    CommissionforWesternAsia(ESCWA)(seeMap7.5)
    includesomeofthemostwaterscarcecountriesin
    theworld.Atleast12ofthesecountriessuferabsolute
    waterscarcitybecausetheyhavelessthan500m
    3
    of
    renewablewaterresourcesavailablepercapitaper
    year(seeChapter33).EventheArabcountriesthat
    arerelativelybetterendowedwithwaterresourcesare
    oftenhighlyunderdevelopedcountriesorcountriesin
    crisis.Severalsocial,politicalandeconomicdrivershave
    exacerbatedthiswaterscarcity,increasingtheriskand
    uncertaintyassociatedwithwaterquantityandquality
    issues.
    Ruraldevelopmentandfoodsecuritypoliciesfurther
    complicateregionalwaterresourcesissues.Striving
    toaddresstheseregionalchallengesinacoordinat-
    edmanner,ArabGovernmentsestablishedtheArab
    MinisterialWaterCouncil(AMWC)undertheauspices
    oftheLeagueofArabStates(LAS).TheAMWChas
    respondedtorequestsarisingfromtheJanuary2009
    ArabEconomicandSocialSummitinKuwaittopre-
    pareanArabstrategytoassisttheregioninaddress-
    ingcurrentandfutureregionalwaterscarcityand
    sustainabledevelopmentchallenges.Theresulting
    publicutilityregulation,andsohavenotmetexpec-
    tations.Somecountrieshaverecognizedtherightto
    water(BoliviaandEcuador)orhavesetupmecha-
    nismsthatimprovetheafordabilityofwaterservices
    creatingsubsidiesforthepoor(Argentine,Chileand
    Colombia).Asforprivatesectorparticipation,regional
    experienceindicatesthatitisnotthemagicformula
    foraddressingthemultipleproblemsthatafectthe
    provisionofwatersupplyandsanitationservices.
    TheLACregionhas61basinsand73aquifersthatcross
    nationalborders(UNESCO,2010).Manycountrieshave
    enteredintotransboundarywateragreements,es-
    peciallyforhydropowerdevelopment.Manypolitical
    obstaclesremaintowidercooperationintheman-
    agementofinternationalbasinsandtherearesome
    examplesofpotentialconict.Increasingly,bilateral
    andmultilateraltreatiesdoincorporateenvironmental
    concerns,includingintegratedwaterresourcesman-
    agementorsustainabilitygoals,butanyapplication
    ofsuchagreementsisstillinitsinfancy(Roy,Barrand
    Venema,2010).Oneexampleofinternationalcoopera-
    tionatleastinresearchisthestudiesundertakenon
    theGuaraniaquifer(Box7.12).
    BOX 7.12
    TheGuaraniAquiferSystem(GAS)project:
    Managingtransboundarygroundwaters
    TheGuaraniaquiferissharedbyArgentina,Brazil,
    ParaguayandUruguay.Itextendsover1.2millionkm
    2
    and
    some15millionpeopleliveintheareaoverlyingit.The
    fourcountrieswiththesupportoftheWorldBankcoop-
    eratedinastudyofcurrentusesbetween2003and2007.
    Theaquiferisthoughttocontainabout40,000km
    3
    of
    freshwater.Currentexploitationisrelativelymodest,but
    demandisgrowingamidfearsofover-pumping.
    InAugust2010,thepresidentsofthefourcountries
    signedanagreementforcooperationonextendingknowl-
    edgeoftheaquiferandonidentifyingcriticalareas,which
    isnoteworthybecauseagreementsontransboundaryaq-
    uifersystemsarerare.Thefourcountrieshavecommitted
    themselvesgenerallytopromotetheconservationand
    environmentalprotectionoftheGuaraniAquiferSystem
    soastoensuremultiple,reasonable,sustainable,andeq-
    uitableuseofitswaterresources(Article4oftheGuarani
    AquiferAgreement).
    208
    consumptionpatterns,regionalconictsandgovern-
    anceconstraints.Thesedrivershaveincreasedthe
    pressuresonalreadyscarcefreshwaterresources,in-
    creasingtherisksassociatedwithwaterquantityand
    qualityissues,thesustainablemanagementofshared
    resources,andtheuncertaintiesofpoliciespromoting
    ruraldevelopmentandfoodsecurity.
    Demographics and socio-economic development
    TheArabregionhasexperiencedapopulationincrease
    ofapproximately43%inoverthepasttwodecades.
    Thetotalestimatedpopulationin2010wasmorethan
    359million,anditisexpectedtoreach461million
    by2025(ESCWA,2009b).Over55%ofthepopula-
    tionlivesinurbanareas,withruraltourbanmigration
    trendsbeingobservedinEgypt,Lebanon,Morocco,
    ArabWaterSecurityStrategy(20102030)proposes
    measurestorespondtothesechallenges,including
    implementingprojectsdirectedatwateruseefcien-
    cy,non-conventionalwaterresources,climatechange,
    integratedwaterresourcesmanagement(IWRM),and
    watersecurity.Riskreductionatthenationallevelis
    beingsoughtindevelopingwatersectorstrategies,
    incorporatingwaterissuesintonationaldevelopment
    plans,pursuinginstitutionalandlegalreforms,andad-
    dressinguncertaintiesrelatedtothemanagementof
    sharedwaterresources.
    7.5.1Thedrivingforcesandpressuresonwater
    resources
    ThekeydriversafectingtheArabregionswaterre-
    sourcesarepopulationgrowthandmigration,growing
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    Sources: Foster et al. (2006); Guarani Aquifer Agreement (2010).
    Source: Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, Map No. 3978 Rev. 11, December 2011. Department of Field Support, Cartographic Section,
    United Nations.
    Note: For the purposes of this chapter, the countries of the Arab region are identied as those that are members of the League of Arab States: Algeria,
    Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan,
    Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen.
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    e dd i tt ee r r a
    T
    CYPRUS RUS US US US US
    LEBANON
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    ECONOMIC AND
    SOCIAL COMMISSION
    FOR WESTERN ASIA
    0
    0 200 400 600 800 km
    100 200 300 400 500 mi
    Bahrain
    Egypt
    Iraq
    Jordan
    Kuwait
    Lebanon
    Oman
    Palestine
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    Sudan
    Syrian Arab Republic
    United Arab Emirates
    Yemen
    Members:
    (KPCNDQWPFCT[DGVYGGPVJG4GRWDNKEQH5WFCPCPFVJG
    4GRWDNKEQH5QWVJ5WFCPJCUPQV[GVDGGPFGVGTOKPGF
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    MAP 7.5
    UNESCWAMemberStates
    209 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    largelytiedtoagriculturalactivities,whichcontribute
    onlymarginallytotheirGDP.Freshwaterconsumption
    intheGulfCooperationCouncil(GCC)countriescon-
    tinuestoincreaseasaresultofhighincomes,comfort-
    ablelifestyles,real-estatedevelopment,theavailability
    ofenergyfordesalination,andgrowthinthetourism
    industry.Incontrast,regionalagriculturalwatercon-
    sumptionischaracterizedbylowproductivity,andhas
    beensignicantlyafectedbydroughtsinrecentyears.
    Regional conicts and displaced persons
    CyclicalconicthascharacterizedtheArabregionfor
    decades,generatinglargenumbersofinternallydis-
    placedpersons.Ithasalsocausedincreasedregional
    migrationandhasstrainedwaterresourcesandser-
    vicesinareasreceivingthedisplacedpopulations.The
    ESCWAregioncontains36%oftheworldsdisplaced
    persons(ESCWA2009d).Examplesinclude2million
    IraqirefugeesinJordanandSyria,SomalisinYemen,
    Palestiniansinrefugeecamps,andmigrantworkers
    andLibyanseeingLibyaforEgyptandTunisiaduring
    theuprisingwhichledtotheregimechange.Violent
    conictshavedestroyedwaterinfrastructureatdifer-
    enttimesinBeirut,KuwaitandLebanon,necessitating
    theSyrianArabRepublicandTunisia(UNDESA,2007).
    Thisurbanmigrationcanbeattributedmainlytore-
    ducedincomesandemploymentopportunitiesinthe
    agriculturalsector,combinedwithaburgeoningyouth
    demographic.Arabgovernmentshavetriedtoslow
    thistrendwithrurallivelihoodpoliciesthatlinkagricul-
    turalproductionandruraldevelopment,eventhough
    thislinkresultedinaskewedallocationofscarcewater
    resourcestotheagriculturalsectorthroughoutmuch
    oftheregion.Urbanareawaterdemandshavealso
    increasedbecauseofmigrationassociatedwitheco-
    nomicdevelopment,andinuxesofpeopledisplaced
    byregionalconicts.Inadditiontobeingconcentrated
    alongcoastlines,urbanizationispromotingsettlement
    inreclaimeddeserts,alongexpandedcoastlinesand
    urbanperipheries.Thishasincreasedpublicandpri-
    vatesectorinvestmentinnon-conventionalwaterre-
    sources,particularlydesalination,toensureadequate
    freshwaterresources.
    WaterconsumptioninESCWAmembercountriesis
    largelytiedtoGDP(Figure7.6),althoughthisismainly
    aconsequenceoftheirheavyrelianceondesalination.
    WaterconsumptioninotherpartsoftheArabregionis
    FIGURE 7.6
    DomesticwaterconsumptionrelativetoGDPpercapitaintheUNESCWAregion
    Source: ESCWA (2009c, p. 7).
    0 100
    Yemen
    Jordan
    Palestine
    Oman
    SaudiArabia
    Egypt
    Syria
    Lebanon
    UAE
    Kuwait
    Qatar
    Bahrain
    Iraq
    Sudan
    200 300 400 500 600 700
    $80,000
    $70,000
    $60,000
    $50,000
    $40,000
    $30,000
    $20,000
    $10,000
    $0
    GDPpercapita($PPP)
    Domesticwaterconsumption(litres/capita/day)
    210
    7.5.2Challenges,risksanduncertainties
    Water scarcity
    NearlyallArabcountriessuferfromwaterscarcity,
    withwaterconsumptionintheArabregionsignicant-
    lyexceedingtotalrenewablewatersupplies.Nearlyall
    Arabcountriescanbecharacterizedaswater-scarce,
    whilethoseformallyendowedwithrichwaterre-
    sourceshaveseentheirtotalannualpercapitashareof
    renewablewaterresourcesdropbyhalfoverthepast
    fourdecadesastheirpopulationsincrease(Figure7.7).
    Thisdecliningtrendpresentsthemostsignicantchal-
    lengetothewatersectorintheArabregion.

    Egypt,Iraq,Jordan,LebanonandSudanderive70%
    oftheirfreshwaterfromperennialrivers.Surfacewa-
    teristheprimarysourceinOman,SaudiArabia,the
    SyrianArabRepublic,theUnitedArabEmirates(UAE)
    andYemen.Thesecountriesalsohaveintermittentriv-
    ers(wadis)whoseseasonaloodsmightbeusedto
    rechargeaquifers.OtherArabcountriesobtainatleast
    one-thirdoftheirtotalconventionalwatersupplyfrom
    groundwater,theextractionofwhichhasincreasedto
    theextentthatitthreatensthesustainabilityofmany
    nationalandsharedaquifers,therebyincreasingthe
    riskofconict.
    Theregionsnon-renewablesharedaquifers,orfossil
    aquifersthatarebeingincreasinglyexploitedinclude
    theNubianSandstoneAquifer,sharedbyChad,Egypt
    andLibya;theNorth-WesternSaharaAquiferSystem
    sharedbyAlgeria,LibyaandTunisia;andtheBasalt
    AquiferunderlyingJordanandSaudiArabia.
    Water quality
    Thedegreetowhichgovernmentsconsiderwaterqual-
    ityaproblemdependsondiferencesinfreshwater
    regimesandwaterscarcityconditions.Saltwaterintru-
    sionfromover-pumpinggroundwatermakesamajor
    challengeofmanagingcoastalaquifers,suchasthose
    alongEgyptsnortherncoast,thosealongLebanons
    coast,thoseintheGazaStrip,andtheaquifersaround
    severaleasternArabianGulfcoastalcities.
    Expectedrisesinsealevelwillfurtherincreasestresses
    oncoastalaquifersandriveroutlets,includingtheNile
    DeltaandattheShattAl-Arab.Pesticidesandfertiliz-
    ersfromagriculturalrunof,post-harvestprocesses,
    garmentproduction,anddomesticsewagearealso
    contaminatingsurfacewaterandgroundwaterinmany
    areas.Impactsincludeeutrophicationandshkillsin
    Lebanon,decliningshstocksinLakeTunis(Harbridge
    therehabilitationofdamagedsystems,insteadofex-
    pandingwaterdelivery.
    Themanagementoffreshwaterresourcesisfurther
    complicatedbythefactthatmanymajorriversinthe
    Regionaretransboundary.Theriversinthiscategory
    includetheTigris,theEuphrates,theOrontes(orAli-
    Assi),theJordan(includingtheYarmouk),theNileand
    theSenegal.LakeChadtooistransboundary,some-
    timesleadingtopoliticalconictbetweenriparian
    neighbours.Anestimated66%oftheArabregions
    availablesurfacefreshwateroriginatesoutsidethere-
    gion.Subnationalandlocal-levelwaterconictscan
    alsoexistbetweenadministrativedistricts,communi-
    tiesandtribes(Box7.13).
    Atthesametime,however,theArabSpringthatstart-
    edsweepingthroughtheregioninDecember2010can
    oferopportunitiestorevisitwatergovernancestruc-
    turesandfacilitategreaterconsultationatthecom-
    munitylevel.Soonaftertherespectiveregimechanges,
    governmentofcialsinTunisiaandEgypt,forexample,
    engagedwiththeissue,fosteringgreaterpublicpar-
    ticipationatthelocallevelinplanninganddecision-
    makingforthewatersector.
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    BOX 7.13
    WaterconictsinYemen
    SanaaandTaizinYemensuferfromacutewaterscar-
    cityaccesstowaterhasbecomeasurvivalissue,anda
    causeofconict.Someresearchersbelievethatbetween
    70%and80%ofthecountrysruralconictsareabout
    water.Thesituationisafectedbyagrowingpopulation,
    poorwatermanagement,illegalwelldrilling,alackoflaw
    enforcement,adependenceonsecureenergytodeliver
    water,competitionforwaterbetweenurbanandruralus-
    ers,aninuxofSomalirefugeestoYemen,andunsustain-
    ablewaterallocationsinvolvingwateruseforagriculture,
    includingqat(amildnarcoticplantpopularinthearea
    andwhichrequiresvetimesasmuchwateras,forexam-
    ple,grapes).
    ExacerbatingtheconictisthefactthatYemenisoneof
    theworldsmostwater-scarcecountries,withanannual
    percapitawateravailabilityofonly125m
    3
    ,comparedto
    theglobalaverageof2,500m
    3
    .Withtheircurrentusage
    rates,expertspredictSanaswellswillrundryby2015
    (Kasinof,2009).
    211 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    agricultureaccountsformorethan90%ofwateruse.
    Nevertheless,theregionisunabletoproducesufcient
    foodtofeeditspopulations,withESCWAmembers
    importing40%to50%oftheirtotalcerealconsump-
    tion.Andthesituationseemslikelytoworsenstudies
    predictclimatechangewillcauseadeclineofasmuch
    as25%inagriculturalproductivityinmostcountriesin
    theregionby2080(Cline,2007).
    Priceincreasesintheglobalcerealmarketoverthe
    pastfewyears,combinedwithunstablesupply,also
    threatenfoodsecurity,particularlysincesomecoun-
    triesarebuyinghalformoreoftheircerealcropsfrom
    abroad.Theexistingsocialstructurealsoincreases
    foodsupplyvulnerability.Insomecountries,there
    isaconcentrationofwealthatthetop,againstthe
    backgroundwherethemajorityofthepopulationis
    clusteredaroundorbelowthepovertyline.Increased
    droughtfrequency,dependencyonfoodimports
    andpopulationgrowthleavetheArabregionhighly
    etal.,2007),andnegativeaquacultureefectsin
    theEgyptianDelta,therebyincreasingfoodsecu-
    rityrisks.Pollutionfromoilproductionisaproblem
    insomeareas,althoughthisisassociatedprimarily
    withmarineecosystems.Rapidpopulationgrowthin
    theArabregion,combinedwithmigrationpressures,
    inadequateurbanplanningandregulationenforce-
    ment,andlargenumbersofpeoplelivingcloseto,
    orat,thepovertyline,exacerbatethedifcultiesin
    protectingmunicipalwatersourcesfromcontamina-
    tion.Bifurcatedwatergovernancestructuresatthe
    inter-ministeriallevel,andoverlappingjurisdictional
    mandatesbetweenministriesandmunicipalitiesfur-
    thercomplicatethesituation.
    Food security
    Agricultureisaprimarysourceofwaterstressinthe
    Arabregion.Itaccountsformorethan70%ofthe
    totalwaterdemandinmostESCWAcountries.In
    Iraq,Oman,theSyrianArabRepublicandYemen,
    FIGURE 7.7
    DeclineinrenewablewaterresourcesintheArabregionpercapita
    Note: *Area covering South Sudan and Sudan.
    Source: FAO AQUASTAT.
    1977 1987 1997 2009
    9,000
    8,000
    7,000
    6,000
    5,000
    4,000
    3,000
    2,000
    1,000
    0
    m
    3
    perpersonperyear
    Mauritania
    Iraq
    Comoros
    Somalia
    Sudan*
    Lebanon
    Morocco
    Syria
    Egypt
    Oman
    Tunisia
    Djibouti
    Algeria
    Palestine
    Jordan
    Bahrain
    Libya
    Yemen
    SaudiArabia
    Qatar
    UAE
    Kuwait
    212
    groundwaterrechargerates,morefrequentextreme
    weatherevents,includingoodsanddroughts,re-
    ducedsnowfallandsnow-meltinsomemountainous
    regions,andincreasedsealevelsandwatersalinityin
    coastalaquifers.Droughtshavealreadyoccurredmore
    frequentlyinAlgeria,Morocco,SyrianArabRepublic,
    SomaliaandTunisiaoverthepast20to40years.
    Largerpopulations,higherstandardsofliving,andthe
    associatedincreaseindemandforwaterhavecontrib-
    utedtotheregionsvulnerabilitytodrought(ESCWA,
    2005).ThedroughtcycleinMorocco,forexample
    changedfromanaverageofoneyearofdrought
    ineveryvebefore1990tooneyearofdroughtin
    everytwobetween1990and2000(Karrou,2002).In
    2011,theHornofAfricaexperiencedoneoftheworst
    droughtsindecades.Droughtvulnerabilityisparticu-
    larlysignicantinArabcountriesthatdependsig-
    nicantlyonrainfedagricultureasamajoreconomic
    activity.Droughtalsocontributestoincreasedland
    degradationanddesertication.Vulnerabilitytooods
    intheregionhasalsoincreasedasaresultofrapid,
    oftenhaphazarddevelopmentinhighriskareassuch
    aswadis.Laxbuildingcodesandweakregulationand
    enforcementhaveplayedaparttoo,resultinginbuild-
    ingsandinfrastructurethatisnotequippedtowith-
    standmajoroodevents.
    Data and information
    Lackofconsistentandcrediblewaterresourcesdata
    andinformationishinderinginformeddecision-making
    intheArabregion.Italsoispreventingthedevelop-
    mentofcoherentandcooperativepolicyframeworks
    forsharedwaterresourcesmanagementandforas-
    sessingchangesandprogress.Someefortshavebeen
    madetoincreasethewaterresourcesknowledgebase
    intheArabregion,includinginter-governmentalpro-
    cessesrelatedtostatisticalreportingattheregional
    andgloballevels.Otherprocesseshavebeenestab-
    lishedthroughregionalreportingmechanismsoras
    academicinitiatives.
    Nevertheless,thedifcultyofnarrowingthegapsin
    theknowledgebasereststoalargedegreewithpoliti-
    calsensitivitiesandthenationalsecurityconcernsthat
    aresometimestiedtothisinformation.Theresultis
    thatapatchworkofinformationanddatafromdifer-
    entsourcesisbeingusedbytheresearchandprofes-
    sionalcommunity,whileofcialdataoftenremainsa
    resourcethatssometimesdifculttoobtainfromgov-
    ernmentalinstitutions.
    vulnerabletofoodinsecurity.Andinsomecountries,
    suchasEgyptandSudan,someareconsideringgrow-
    ingcropsformoreprotablecommercialbiofuelsthat
    willcompetewithfoodcropsforthescarcewaterre-
    sources(ESCWA,2009e).
    Assuch,foodsecurityintheregionhasnotbeen
    achievedatthenationalorregionallevelthroughfood
    self-sufciency.Subsidiesandguaranteedpricesup-
    portswereusedinitiallyinsomecountries(including
    Egypt,JordanandSaudiArabia)toencouragefood
    production.Subsequentinitiativestopromotecereal
    productionincludedgreaterinvestmentinirrigation
    networks,increasingthecapacityofreservoirs,and
    morepumpingofgroundwater.Intra-regionalagricul-
    turaltradewasencouragedthroughtheGreaterArab
    FreeTradeAgreement.Asaresult,therehasbeena
    shiftinArabfoodself-sufciencypoliciestowardsa
    broaderconceptoffoodsecurity,withgovernments
    thathavetheavailablenancialresourcesabletopur-
    suealternativemeasureswithintheglobalmarketplace
    toachievetheirfoodneeds.Stillothersarere-examin-
    ingtheirdevelopmentandtradepolicies.
    Forinstance,somecountriesareacquiringlong-term
    leasesonlandoutsidetheirbordersforfoodproduc-
    tion,therebyincreasingtheirimportsofvirtualwater
    asameanstoincreasefoodsecurityinfaceofgrow-
    ingwaterscarcity.Agribusinessrmsandinvestment
    fundsareleadingthistrend.Suchlanddealshave
    becomebothpopularandsignicant,withnearly2.5
    millionhaofapprovedlandallocationsbeingmade
    inAfricancountriessince2004(excludingallocations
    oflessthan1,000ha[Cotulaetal.,2009]),whichin-
    cludesinvestmentsmadebyArabcountries.Although
    someaspectsofthisarecontroversial,thisactionpro-
    videssomeArabcountrieswitharelativelystablefood
    supply,whileprovidinghostcountrieswithinfrastruc-
    tureinvestmentsandpotentialeconomicreturns.
    Climate change and extreme events
    TheArabregionisparticularlysensitivetotheefects
    ofclimatechange,particularlybecauseitalreadysuf-
    fersfromextremeclimatevariabilityandwaterscar-
    city.Smallchangesinclimaticpatternscanresultin
    dramaticground-levelimpacts.Althoughtheimpacts
    remainuncertain,theexpectedconsequencesofcli-
    matechangeincludeincreasedsoiltemperaturesand
    aridity,shiftsinseasonalrainfallpatterns(already
    beingexperiencedinsomerainfedagriculturalareas
    suchastheSyrianArabRepublicandTunisia),reduced
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    213 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    private-publicpartnerships,publicutilityperformance
    indicators,theintegrationofwaterresourcesmanage-
    mentintodevelopmentplanning,groundwaterman-
    agement,infrastructuremanagement,andsanitation
    andwaterresourcesmanagement.
    Tostrengthenresilienceandpreparednessregard-
    ingfoodsecurity,someArabcountrieshavesought
    toensurefoodsecuritythroughtrade,investment
    andcontractualarrangementswithothercountries.
    Long-termleasingofagriculturallandsinothercoun-
    trieshasemergedasatoolforovercomingdomestic
    agriculturalproductionproblemsarisingfromwater,
    land,energyandtechnologicalconstraints,result-
    inginreducedfoodsecurityrisk.Thehostcountries,
    inturn,cansecureinvestmentsoveranagreedtime
    horizonallowingforthedevelopmentoftransport,
    waterandenergyinfrastructureintheleasedareas,
    aswellasenhancedprimaryandsecondaryagro-in-
    dustries.AreastargetedbytheArabregionforfuture
    investmentincludeEgypt,Sudan,Turkey,Ethiopia,
    PhilippinesandBrazil.Theprivatesectorandprivate
    investmentrmsalsoareinvolved.Puttingsuchef-
    fortsintooperation,however,hasprovencontrover-
    sial,especiallywhereindigenouscommunitiesand
    7.5.3Responsemeasures
    Institutional, legal and planning responses
    Recognizingtheneedforacommonapproachtoim-
    provingwaterresourcesmanagementandachieving
    sustainabledevelopmentintheArabRegion,the
    AMWCadoptedtheArabWaterSecurityStrategyin
    theArabRegiontoMeettheChallengesandFuture
    NeedsofSustainableDevelopment(20102030)in
    2011.Amongitscomponents,thestrategyidenti-
    esprioritiesforactionattheregionallevelfocus-
    ingonthefollowing:(1)socio-economicdevelop-
    mentpriorities(includingaccesstowatersupply
    andsanitation,andwaterforagriculture),nance
    andinvestment,technology,non-conventionalwater
    resourcesandIWRM;(2)politicalprioritiesthatin-
    cludemanagingsharedwaterresourcesandprotect-
    ingArabwaterrights;and(3)institutionalpriorities
    associatedwithcapacitybuilding,awarenessraising,
    research,andparticipatoryapproachesthatinvolve
    civilsociety.
    Regionalinstitutionsandinitiativeshavealsobeen
    launchedintheArabregiontorespondtothesepriori-
    ties.TheseincludetheArabMinisterialWaterCouncil,
    whoserstministerialsessionwashostedbyAlgeriain
    June2009.TheMinisterialCouncilisaninter-govern-
    mentalcouncilestablishedwithintheframeworkofthe
    LeagueofArabStates.ItissupportedbyanExecutive
    Bureau,aTechnicalScienticAdvisoryCommitteeand
    aTechnicalSecretariat.AnotherexampleistheArab
    CountriesWaterUtilitiesAssociation(ACWUA),which
    focusesondialogueandcapacity-buildingforwater
    supplyandsanitation.Theseinstitutions,amongoth-
    ers,coordinateseveralregionalwaterinitiativesinthe
    Arabregionfocusedonclimatechange,sharedwater
    resources,integratedwaterresourcesmanagement,
    MDGsandsoforth.
    Atthenationallevel,diferentministriesandauthori-
    tiesintheArabregionhavetheresponsibilityofman-
    agingwaterresourcesanddeliveringwaterservices.
    Althoughonlyafewjointcommitteesorunitsex-
    isttosupportsharedwaterresources,efortshave
    beenenactedorareunderwaytoimproveinstitution-
    alandlegalframeworksinthewatersector,includ-
    inganincreasedincorporationofissuespreviously
    limitedtoIWRMplanning.Institutionsforaddress-
    ingvariousissuesassociatedwiththesegoalshave
    beenestablishedinMorocco(Makboul,2009),Egypt,
    Yemen,Jordan,PalestineandLebanon.Therange
    ofthevariousmechanismsincludedecentralization,
    To strengthen
    resilience and
    preparedness
    regarding food
    security, some Arab
    countries have
    sought to ensure
    food security through
    trade, investment
    and contractual
    arrangements with
    other countries.
    214
    between1990and2000,from50.2km
    3
    to139.7km
    3
    ,
    whiletheSyrianArabRepublicincreaseditscapac-
    ityfrom15.85km
    3
    in1994to19.65km
    3
    in2007.Dams
    havealsoworkedtocounterthedamageassociated
    withoodevents.TheSinaiandAswandamsefec-
    tivelystoredwaterduringthe2010ood,forexample,
    protectingNeamaBay,NuweibaaandDahabinEgypt
    fromoods(GovernmentofEgypt,2010),whilealso
    raisingthegroundwatertableandpreventingcoastal
    saltwaterintrusion.
    OneotherapproachbeingusedbyArabcountriesto
    addresswater-associatedriskanduncertaintyisbetter
    managementofaquiferrecharge,asameansofboth
    counteringsaltwaterintrusionintocoastalaquifers
    (particularlyalongtheMediterraneanandArabianGulf
    coastlines),andforstoringexcessdesalination-pro-
    ducedwaterasabuferforfuturewaterdemandsor
    desalinationplantfailuresintheGCCcountries.
    ArabianGulfcountriesrelyheavilyondesalinationfor
    freshwaterresources.SaudiArabiacurrentlyhasthe
    worldsgreatestdesalinationcapacity,followedby
    theUAEasthesecondlargestproducer.Jointly,they
    producemorethan30%ofglobalfreshwaterproduc-
    tion(ESCWA,2009c).Desalinationcapacityalsois
    supplyingagrowingshareoffreshwaterinAlgeria,
    Egypt,IraqandJordan.Co-generation,wherepower
    anddesalinatedwaterareproducedatjointfacilitiesis
    expandingintheGulfregion(Zawya,2011),although
    thisisnotacost-efectivesolutioninenergy-poor
    countries.Jordan,Morocco,SaudiArabiaandtheUAE
    areadvancingnucleardesalinationprospects.Small
    household-leveldesalinationunitsarebeingused
    byabout100,000householdsintheGazaStripasa
    secondarydrinkingwatersource(WorldBank,2009),
    althoughhealthproblemsarosewhenthelterswere
    overusedbecausereplacementscouldnotbefound.
    Thereuseoftreatedwastewatercurrentlyaccounts
    forabout15%to35%oftotalwaterresourcespro-
    ducedfromnon-conventionalsourcesinEgypt,Iraq,
    SaudiArabia,theSyrianArabRepublic,andtheUAE.
    RainwaterharvestinghasexpandedintheArabre-
    gion,andwaterharvestingthroughforestcondensa-
    tionisbeingincreasinglyconsidered.Otherinnovative
    approachesincludefogharvestingandcloudseed-
    ing.Advancedremotesensingtechniques(Shaban,
    2009)havefacilitatedtheidenticationofunder-
    waterspringsintheregion,althoughthisapproach
    couldcauseterritorialdisputesoversharedseaand
    pastoralistshavetraditionallyusedtheleasedlands.
    Chapter33providesfurtherdetailsonthistopic.
    Inefortstoincreaseresiliencetoclimatechangead-
    aptationandimprovedisasterpreparedness,theArab
    MinisterialDeclarationonClimateChange(2007)
    expressedcommitmenttofocusmoreonclimate
    changeadaptationandmitigation.Itwasfollowedby
    thedraftingofaclimatechangeactionplaninthere-
    gion.Atthesametime,Arabcountrieshaveworked
    toassesstheefectsofclimatechangeonnaturalwa-
    terresourcesasameansofinformingtheirnational
    adaptationplansandcommunicationstotheInter-
    GovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC).Auni-
    edassessmentwaslaunchedbytheLeagueofArab
    States(LAS)andUNorganizationsservingtheregion
    undertheRegionalInitiativefortheAssessmentof
    theImpactofClimateChangeonWaterResources
    andSocio-EconomicVulnerabilityintheArabRegion,
    beingreportedtotheAMWCandtheUNRegional
    CoordinationMechanism.
    Riskanduncertaintyrelatedtoclimatechangeand
    extremeweathereventshavealsofacilitatednation-
    alandregionalefortsdirectedatreducingdisaster
    risk,planningandpreparedness.TheArabStrategy
    forDisasterRiskReductionfor20102015,adoptedin
    2010bytheCouncilofArabMinistersResponsiblefor
    theEnvironment(CAMRE)andsupportedbytheUN
    InternationalStrategyforDisasterReduction(UNISDR)
    andregionalpartners,focusesonnationaldisasterin-
    ventoriesandcapacity-buildingdirectedatimproving
    landuseplanning,regulatoryframeworks,nancing
    andaccesstouser-friendlyinformationandcommuni-
    cationstools.
    Infrastructure responses
    AllArabcountrieshavepursuedsupply-sideap-
    proachestoaddressincreasingwaterdemands.This
    hasincludeddambuilding,desalinisationandwater
    reuse,reservoirs,andnewtechnologiestoimprovethe
    efciencyoftraditionalandnon-conventionalmeth-
    odssuchaswaterharvesting.Althoughlargedams
    canhaveimportantnegativeenvironmentalandsocial
    impacts,theyalsohelpreducetheuncertaintyandrisk
    relatedtooodsandclimaticvariability.
    AnumberofArabcountrieshaveincreasedtheirtotal
    damcapacity.Egyptisattheforefrontofthiswitha
    capacityofatleast169km
    3
    addedsince2003.Total
    damcapacityinIraqforwatersupplynearlytripled
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    215 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    andothermeanscanhelptoalleviatelocalpressures
    inareasofwaterscarcitybyfocusingwaterintensive
    activitiesinareasofgreaterwaterabundanceand
    sharingthosebenetswithregionsthatmaynothave
    thewaterresourcesnecessarytomeetallthebasic
    needsoftheirincreasingpopulations(seeChapter1).
    Thisinterconnectednesswillbedemonstratedinthis
    sectionbyexaminingregionalthreatsandtheirglobal
    outcomes,bylookingatthewaysinwhicheconomic
    andtradepolicieshaveinuencedregionalwaterman-
    agement,andbyconsideringanumberofgovernance
    challenges.
    Commitmentstoaddresswaterscarcityandshortages
    aremadeatinternationallevel,butthegapbetween
    theseinternationalobjectivesandtherealityonthe
    groundseemsmoreandmoreevident.Thisstresses
    theneedforaregionalfocus.Forinstance,avarietyof
    globalinstrumentsaddressingwaterissueshavebeen
    establishedoverthelastdecade:theUnitedNations
    GeneralAssemblyandtheHumanRightsCouncilof
    theUnitedNationsrecognizedinJulyandSeptember
    2010,respectively,therighttowaterandsanitation
    asahumanright(seeSection1.2.4);theG8endorsed
    theEvianActionPlan;theWorldEconomicForumen-
    dorsedtheWaterInitiativein2010,whichencourages
    publicprivatepartnershipstoworktowardsforamore
    watersecureworld;andahostofotherinitiativeshave
    alsobeensetup,includingtheWorldWaterCouncil
    andtheWorldWaterForum.
    However,ontheground,manycountriesarebecom-
    ingmorewaterinsecure,disparityofaccessisincreas-
    ing,andalltoooftenwateradministratorslackopera-
    tionalcapacitiesandarebecominglesscoordinated
    intheirefortstoaddressthewaterissue.Throughout
    theworld,billionsofpeopleliveincountriesthatdo
    nothavethewaterresourcestomeettheirbasicneeds.
    Becausemuchoftheexpectedpopulationgrowthwill
    occurinregionsthatareincreasinglyunabletogrow
    theirownfood,therewillbemorepressureonneigh-
    bouringcountriesandotherregionsthatarebetter
    endowedwithlandandwater.Thisislikelytocreate
    averyparticulardynamicofinter-regionaldependen-
    cy,andafragilebalancebetweenthehavesandthe
    havenotswillneedtobemaintained.
    Whenlookingattheverytangibleexampleoftrans-
    boundarybasins,whichprovidethebulkofwaterre-
    sourcesfordrinking,sanitation,agricultureandindus-
    try,onenotesthatonly40%oftransboundarybasins
    submarineresources.TheArabandWesternAsia
    RegionalReportprovidesfurtherdetailsonnon-con-
    ventionalwatersourcesintheArabregion.
    Inthefaceofinherentwaterscarcity,coupledwith
    risingpopulationsandwateruse,demand-sideman-
    agementisanotherstrategytoaddresstherisks
    associatedwithwaterscarcityintheregion.These
    actionsincludereducingwaterconsumption,increas-
    ingwateruseefciency,andadoptingnewtypesof
    regulationssuchaspermitsandtarifsforimproved
    waterservices.
    Despitethesevariousrisksanduncertainties,wa-
    terisatthecoreofArabcultureandconsciousness.
    Nevertheless,theArabregionfacescontinuingwater
    scarcity,populationgrowth,foodsecurity,climate
    change,extremeweatherevents,andexistingand
    potentialnewconictsoversharedwaterresourc-
    es.Thesefactors,individuallyandcollectively,will
    continuetoinuencetheabilityofArabcountriesto
    managetheregionssurfacewaterandgroundwater
    resources.
    7.6Regionalgloballinks:Impactsand
    challenges
    7.6.1Linkingtheregionaltotheglobal
    Onaglobalscale,humanactivity,climatevariabil-
    ityandotherexternalpressureshavetakentheirtoll
    onboththeavailabilityandthequalityofwater.They
    havealsoweakenedtheabilityofaquaticecosystems
    toperformessentialfunctionswhichsupportsustain-
    abledevelopment(UNEP,2006a).Overthelasttwo
    decades,therehasbeeninternationalrecognitionthat
    thereisaneedforamoresustainableuseofwater
    resources.
    AsdemonstratedinChapter9,theglobalpictureis
    composedofanumberofinter-relatedenvironmental,
    economic,political,technologicalandsocialdrivers.In
    ordertounderstandthecomplexrelationshipbetween
    regionalwaterchallengesandglobalwaterproblems,
    itisnecessarytoexaminehowregionalchallengesare
    linkedtoglobalwaterproblems.Waterchallengesdo
    notoccurinavacuumthroughaseriesofintercon-
    nectedwebstheyafectdiversecountriesandcommu-
    nitiesinmanyways.Thenegativeefectsoftheenvi-
    ronmentaldegradationofwatersupplyandexcessive
    waterwithdrawalsarebornenotjustbytheregionsin
    whichsuchactivitiesoccurtheirimpactcanbefelt
    worldwide.Yetinternationalcooperationthroughtrade
    216
    social,economicorenvironmentalissuescanallowin-
    ternationalcontractsandtreatiestoenjoymuchmore
    liberalrightsandentitlements.Thisisparticularlyrel-
    evanttoforeigninvestmentsinagriculture,wheredo-
    mesticlandtenurerights,waterrights,environmental
    managementregimesrelatingtochemicals,labourlaw
    onfarmsandsooncanbeweakorabsent(Mannand
    Smaller,2010).SaudiArabia,oneoftheMiddleEasts
    largestcerealgrowersannounceditwouldcutcereal
    productionby12%ayeartoreducetheunsustainable
    useofgroundwater.Inordertoprotectitswaterand
    foodsecurity,theSaudigovernmentissuedincentives
    toSaudicorporationstoleaselargetractsoflandin
    Africaforagriculturalproduction.ByinvestinginAfrica
    toproduceitsstaplecrops,SaudiArabiaissavingthe
    equivalentofhundredsofmillionsofgallonsofwater
    peryearandreducingtherateofdepletionofitsfos-
    silaquifers.Saudiinvestorshavealreadyleasedland
    inSudan,Egypt,EthiopiaandKenya.Indiaisgrowing
    maize,sugarcane,lentils,andriceinEthiopia,Kenya,
    Madagascar,SenegalandMozambiquetofeeditsdo-
    mesticmarket,whileEuropeanrmsareseeking3.9
    millionhaofAfricanlandtomeettheir10%biofueltar-
    getby2015(Cotulaetal.,2009).
    Thisclearlydemonstrateshowpoliciesenactedin
    oneregionhaveanimpactonothersthroughwater.
    Buttheremaybeunforeseennegativeconsequences
    inmanyoftheAfricanstateswherethesetransac-
    tionsaretakingplace.Forinstance,countriessuch
    asEthiopia,whereIndiahaspurchased1millionhaof
    land,isoneofthemostfoodinsecurecountriesinthe
    world.Poorlyregulatedforeigninvestmentsinlands
    thatcouldbeotherwiseusedtofeedlocalpopula-
    tions,couldpotentiallyhavedevastatingconsequenc-
    esonthefragilestateoffoodsecurityatthenational
    level.Otherconsequencesincludethedisplacementof
    populations,thedispossessionofland,potentialcon-
    ictsandinstabilityasvariousgroupsareuprooted.
    Therearealsoconsiderablenegativeenvironmental
    consequencesaslarge-scaleindustrialagriculturere-
    quiresfertilizers,pesticides,herbicidesandlarge-scale
    transport,storageanddistribution.Manyofthestates
    wheresuchactivitiesaretakingplacealsohaveweak
    governancestructures,withlittlelegalprotectionfor
    localcommunitiesandnobenetsharingmechanisms
    AsarecentWorldBankreportnotes,suchagro-in-
    vestmentshavedeprivedlocalpeople,particularlythe
    mostvulnerable,oftheirrightswithoutprovidingap-
    propriatecompensation,whileneglectingenvironmen-
    talandsocialsafeguards(Deiningeretal.,2010),and
    actuallyhaveevenoneagreementinplacetogovern
    thewaythebasinisusedandmanaged(DeStefanoet
    al.,2010).ThisisparticularlyworrisomeasAfricahas
    beenidentiedbytheIPCCasoneofthecontinents
    thatismostvulnerabletowaterstress,andwhichhas
    increasinglevelsofdesertication(IPCC,2007).Unless
    theseissuesareaddressedattheregionallevel,global
    commitmentssimplycannotbefullled.
    The case of large land acquisitions
    Whenaddressingregionalissuesitbecomesclearthat
    policiesandactionsimplementedinonegeographic
    areahaverepercussionsinotherplaces.Forinstance,
    inefortstoconservetheirscarcewaterresources,a
    numberofcountriesareinvestinginagricultureabroad
    (Box7.14).Therearethreemainsourcesoflawthat
    governforeigninvestmentinagriculture:domesticlaw,
    internationalinvestmentcontracts,andinternational
    investmentagreements,orIIAs.Theinterplaybetween
    themdeterminestheextenttowhichinternationallaw
    willprevailoverdomesticlawinanygiveninstance
    andprovideadditionalrightsandremediestoforeign
    investors.Indevelopedstates,thedomesticlawpro-
    videsabroadbasethatprotectsdomesticstakehold-
    ersandgovernmentsandsetsobligationsforallinves-
    tors.Whenthisisnotthecase,asinmanydeveloping
    states,aweakorincompletedomesticlegalbaseon
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    Poorly regulated
    foreign investments
    in lands that could
    be otherwise used to
    feed local populations,
    could potentially
    have devastating
    consequences on the
    fragile state of food
    security at the national
    level.
    217 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    BOX 7.14
    Waterdimensionsofthesurgeintransnationallandacquisitions
    Thecurrentsurgeinlarge-scaletransnationallandacquisitions(alsoknownaslandgrabs)resultsinfactfromseveraldrivers
    thathavebeenaccumulatingfordecades:theincreaseinpopulation,coupledwithchangesinconsumptionhabits,thestag-
    nationofinvestmentinandreducedaidtoagriculture,reformsandstructuraladjustmentprogrammes,and,morerecently,
    theincreaseoflandareasdevotedtobiofuelcrops,oftenattheexpenseoffoodcrops.Landdegradationandwaterresource
    depletionhavealsoconstrainedtheabilityoftheagriculturesectortocopewiththeescalatingdemandforfood.Thesedriv-
    ershaveincreasedthedependencyofmanydevelopingcountriesonfoodimportsandmadesmallfarmersand,moregen-
    erally,theruralandurbanpoormorevulnerablethantheyhadbeentointernationalfoodpriceuctuations.Moreimmedi-
    atetriggersoflandgrabswerethefoodpricehikein2008,theoilpricehikesduring20072008,andunfavourableweather
    conditionsexperiencedinkeycerealproducingcountriesataroundthistime.
    Asthereiscurrentlynoregulatingormonitoringmechanismforthesedeals,theacreageoftransnationallandacquisitionsis
    subjecttogreatvariabilityaccordingtosourceanddate,rangingfrom1520millionhain2009(aggregateofthelanddeals
    listedinvonBraunandMeinzen-Dick[2009])tomorethan70millionin2012LandMatrixProjectdataquotedinAnseeuwet
    al.[2012]).ThedatabaseoftheMatrixcontainsmorethan2,000deals,ofwhichapproximatelyhalf,totallingsome70million
    ha,havebeencross-checked.Africaconsistentlyappearstobetheprimetargetforthesedeals,withsub-SaharanAfricaac-
    countingfortwo-thirdsoftheiracreage.
    Someofthemostactiveinvestorsinlarge-scaletransnationallandacquisitionsareoil-richbutfood-insecureGulfstates,
    land-scarce,populousAsiancountries,anddevelopedcountries.Non-stateinvestorsincludeWesternfoodproducing,pro-
    cessingandexportingcompaniesnewactorsattractedbybiofueldemandandopportunitiesrelatedtoinvestmentfunds.
    Whilethedriversbehindlandacquisitionshavebeendiscussedatlengthintherecentliterature,theimportanceofaccessto
    water(inparticularforirrigation)indrivingthetransnationalsearchforlandhasnotreceivedadequateattention.
    ForChinaandIndia,waterscarcityconstrainsthepossibilitiesofrespondingtothegrowingfooddemandandthereforefoodsecurity
    challengesthroughincreasingdomesticagriculturalproduction,soalternativesmustbeexplored.Thelandavailableforagricultureis
    alsoclosinginthesecountries.Becauseofrapidlydepletingfossilgroundwaterresources,SaudiArabiahadtoreducewheatproduc-
    tion,leadingtoresumptionofwheatimportsin2007(Cotulaetal.,2009;SmallerandMann,2009;Woertz,2009);ataroundthe
    sametime(in2008),anagriculturalfundwasestablishedtopromoteagricultureinvestmentabroad(SmallerandMann,2009).
    Becauseofthegrowingunreliabilityofrainfedagricultureandgrowingfreshwaterscarcity,investorscropsoftenneedirriga-
    tion,soasecuresupplyofwaterisakeyaspectofthedecisionwhetherornottoinvest.Agriculturetradespecialistshave
    longrecognizedthenotionoftradeinvirtualwater.Today,investmentinwaterrightsinforeignstatesthroughthepurchase
    orleaseoflandwithassociatedwaterrightsandaccessisacriticalmotivationandpartofthenewprocessofsecuringlong-
    termfarminginvestments.
    Nevertheless,wateristypicallynotexplicitlymentionedinthedisclosedlanddeals.Inthefewcaseswherewaterisreferredto,
    theamountofpermittedwaterwithdrawalsisnotspecied.Evans(2009)quotestheChiefExecutiveOfcerofNestlassay-
    ing,withthelandcomestherighttowithdrawthewaterlinkedtoit,inmostcountriesessentiallyafreebiethatincreasingly
    couldbethemostvaluablepartofthedeal.And,becausethiswaterhasnoprice,theinvestorscantakeitovervirtuallyfree.
    Theconsequencesofthistrendisharmfulfortheruralpoorwhentheyareforcedtocompeteforscarcerwaterwithactorswho
    aremorenanciallypowerfulandtechnicallybetterequipped.Potentialinter-statetensionsandconicts,especiallyintrans-
    boundarybasins,arealsoacauseforconcern.Thecurrentpaceoflandacquisitionsandtherelatedconcessionsofwaterrights
    toinvestorscarrygreatthreatstotransboundarycooperationinmanyriversystems,suchastheNile,NigerandSenegalbasins.
    Inthiscontext,approachinglackoflandaccessandtenureinsecurityinisolationfromwaterrightsisanachronistictraditionalso-
    lutionsconnedtothelandsectorareinmanysettingsnolongerefective.Waterandlandhavebecomekeystrategicresources,
    moreinterlinkedthaneverbefore,soanintegratedmanagementapproachtorespondtothechallengesoftheseresourcesdeg-
    radationanddepletionislikelytobemoreefectivethanconsideringtheminisolation.Itisalsoimperativethatinvestorstakeinto
    accountthepossibleimpactsoftheseprojectsfromtheearlyplanningstagesonandincorporateappropriatemeasures.
    Source: Madiodio Niasse (International Land Coalition Secretariat), Praveen Jha (University of Delhi), Rudolph Cleveringa (IFAD) and Michael
    Taylor (International Land Coalition Secretariat).
    218
    Droughts,inadditiontocausingdecreasedaccessto
    waterforparticularcommunities,havesignicantlyaf-
    fectedagriculturalproductionwhichhascontributed
    tosoaringfoodpricesandfoodshortages(Krugman,
    2011).Forexample,thecostofwheatalmostdoubled
    betweenthesummerof2010andthesummerof2011
    asaresultofasharpdecreaseinworldproduction.
    AccordingtotheUSDepartmentofAgriculture,the
    bulkofthisdropinwheatproductioncanbeattributed
    toRussiaandCentralAsia,whichexperiencedrecord
    droughtandheatinthesummerof2010(Krugman,
    2010).FiresinRussiaandtheensuingdecisiontotem-
    porarilyhaltwheatexportsledtosharpandrapidprice
    hikesaroundtheworld(Hernandez,2010).Increasing
    thepriceofacommoditylikewheatdoesnotmerely
    afectitsby-productsandrelatedfoodstufs.These
    increaseshaveothermajorsocio-politicalimpacts,and
    canleadtofar-reachingconsequencessuchasfood
    riotsandpoliticalinstability.
    Forinstance,inEgyptthepriceofwheatisnow30%
    higherthanitwasin2010(Biello,2011).Egyptcon-
    sumesagreatdealofwheatandrisingbreadcosts
    coupledwithothersocio-politicalissues,resultedin
    considerablepoliticalinstabilityandcivilunrest.The
    relationshipbetweenfoodpricesandpoliticalunrest
    inEgyptdidnotgounnoticedbyotherMiddleEastern
    countriesAlgeria,Jordan,Libya,Morocco,Saudi
    Arabia,Turkey,QatarandYemenhaveallbeenpur-
    chasinglargersuppliesofwheatontheworldmarket
    tolimitsoaringprices.Thisclearlydemonstratesthe
    linkbetweendrought-basedfoodshortagesandlarger
    socio-politicalimpacts.
    Similarly,oodscanhavedevastatingefectsonsafe
    watersuppliesandhaveglobalimpactsthatgofarbe-
    yondtheregionalscope.Floods,astheIPCChascon-
    cluded,areprojectedtoincreaseinmagnitudeasare-
    sultofglobalwarminganditsefectonthehydrological
    cycle(IPCC,2007).Thesearepredictedtoafectcrop
    yieldsandlivestockbeyondtheimpactsofmeancli-
    matechange.Thenumberofpeoplevulnerabletoood
    disastersworldwideisexpectedtomushroomtotwo
    billionby2050asaresultofclimatechange,deforesta-
    tion,risingsealevelsandpopulationgrowthinood-
    pronelands(AdikariandYoshitani,2009).
    Aswasseeninthecaseofdrought,thedamage
    causedbyoodshasworldwideconsequences.For
    instance,intheJanuary2011oodsinAustralia,over
    900,000km
    2
    ofQueenslandwasooded.Thatthe
    proposesprinciplesforresponsibleagro-investments
    forfosteringmutualbenetsfromagriculturalinvest-
    mentsabroad.
    Similarly,thePeoplesRepublicofChinahasinvest-
    edheavilyinlandinIndonesia,Thailand,Malaysia,
    MozambiqueandtheDemocraticRepublicofCongo,
    amongothers,tofullitsbiofuelpolicy.By2020the
    Chinesegovernmentanticipatesthat15%ofChinas
    transportenergyneedswillbemetbybiofuels.Aspart
    ofamassiveplantoreducegreenhousegases,China
    willreplace12milliontonsofoilwith2milliontonsof
    biodieseland10milliontonsofbioethanoleachyear
    (Kraus,2009).Despitethepositivegoalofinvesting
    ingreenandcleanenergy,Chinasinterventionshave
    succumbedtonegativeexternalitiessuchasdefor-
    estation,biodiversitythreatscausedbymonocultures,
    increasedfoodpricesanddecreasedfoodstocks(the
    InternationalMonetaryFundestimatesthatthatthe
    increaseddemandforbiofuelsaccountedfor70%of
    increasedmaizepricesand40%ofsoyabeanprices
    between2006and2008).Theinterventionshavealso
    causedpopulationdisplacement,aslandisconverted
    intoplantations,andwaterscarcitybecausewateris
    amajorinputforgrowingprimarybiofuelcommodi-
    ties(Kraus,2009).Theamountofwaterrequiredfor
    biofuelplantationscouldbeparticularlydevastating
    toregionssuchasWestAfrica,wherewaterisalready
    scarce(UNCTADXII,2008).Forexample,1Lofetha-
    nolfromsugarcanerequires18.4Lofwaterand1.52m
    2

    ofland(PerieraandOrtega,2010).
    7.6.2Regionalthreatsandglobaloutcomes
    Weather-induced regional natural disasters and global
    impacts
    Theimpactsofnaturaldisastersarebeingfeltmore
    deeplyinmostregionsoftheworld(seeSection4.4
    andChapter27).Ofallthenaturalandanthropogenic
    adversities,water-relatednaturaldisastersarethemost
    recurrent,andposethemostseriousimpedimentsto
    achievinghumansecurityandsustainablesocio-eco-
    nomicdevelopment(AdikariandYoshitani,2009).
    Thefactorsthatarethoughttohavecontributedtothe
    moresevereimpactsofwater-relateddisastersinclude
    naturalpressures,suchasclimatevariability;manage-
    mentpressures,suchasthelackofappropriateorgani-
    zationalsystemsandinappropriatelandmanagement;
    andsocialpressures,suchasanescalationofpopula-
    tionandsettlementinhigh-riskareas,particularlyby
    vulnerablepopulations(AdikariandYoshitani,2009).
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    219 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    studiesindicatethatnosingledamalongthewaters
    regulatedbytheIndusWaterTreatycanstoporre-
    ducewatersupplytoPakistan,thecumulativeefect
    ofallthedamscangiveIndiatheabilitytolimitwater
    supplytoPakistanatcrucialmomentsduringgrow-
    ingseason,accordingtotheUSSenateCommitteeon
    ForeignRelationsin2011.Itisimportanttonotehow-
    ever,thatthisSenateCommitteeReportiscontested
    byIndiangovernmentofcials.
    Intodaysglobalsecuritycontext,noregionistrulyim-
    munetoconictorstrifeinanother.Despitepolitical
    tensionshowever,nationshavemanagedtosuccessful-
    lycooperateonwater.Forinstance,IndiaandPakistan,
    despiteghtingwarsin1965and1971andfacing
    cross-borderconfrontationin20012002,haveman-
    agedtoadheretothewatercommitmentsembedded
    intheIndusWatersTreaty(1960).Thus,collaboration
    onwaterissuesispossible,andoferspotentialforco-
    operationbetweenstates.Thereisalsoalongtradition
    ofsuccessfulcooperationintheeldoftransboundary
    waterresourcesinLatinAmerica(Querol,2002).
    Economic and trade policy impacts on regional water
    management
    Economicandtradepoliciesplayacrucialroleinpro-
    motingthesustainableuseofwaterresources.The
    questionthatarisesiswhatsortofpoliciesarebest
    suitedtoensuringsustainableoutcomesatnational,
    regionalandgloballevels.Thereisatendencytowards
    protectionistpoliciesthatprotectnationalorregional
    resources,particularlyaswaterbecomesscarcerand
    morevaluable.Protectionismarguesthatuseofeco-
    nomicinstrumentsandthemarketmechanismrisks
    havingwaterresourcesdivertedtoregionsthathave
    moreeconomicprowess,leavingthevulnerablefurther
    marginalized.However,enactingprotectionistpolicies
    canalsofosteraclimateofinequalitywherewater-
    poorregionscannotafordproductsthathavehigh
    waterfootprints.
    Policy-makershavetobecognizantthatneitherthe
    market-basednortheexclusiverelianceoncommand-
    and-controlapproachescanbeaone-size-ts-all
    approach.Afterall,whatmayseemlikeabene-
    cialinterventioninoneplace,mayhaveunintended
    consequencesinothers,giventhecomplexityofthe
    linksbetweencountriesandregions.Assometheo-
    ristssuggest,resourcescarcityinoneregioncanhave
    signicantindirectefectsontheinternationalcom-
    munity.Forinstance,itcanencouragepowerfulgroups
    oodshaddevastatingefectsonthesocio-economic
    structuresofAustraliawastobeanticipated,butwhat
    wassurprisingwastheefecttheyhadonanumber
    ofemergingeconomiestoo.Queenslandisthebig-
    gesthubforAustraliascoalexportsandproduces28%
    oftheworldstotaltradedcoal.Inparticular,Australia
    producesmetallurgicalcoalonwhich70%ofsteel
    productionworldwideisdependent.Japan,India,
    China,TaiwanandSouthKoreawereallafectedby
    waterdamageinQueenslandbecausetheireconomic
    growthisheavilyreliantoncoal.Suchconsequences
    arenotrestrictedtomerelyeconomicoutput,they
    alsohaveanimpactonlivelihoodsandinfrastructural
    development.
    7.6.3Conict,competitionandcooperation
    Watershortagescancauseconictsofvaryingintensi-
    tiesandscales.Althoughconictsmayappearlocal-
    ized,theypresentchallengestothebroadercontextof
    peaceandsecurity.Themultifacetedefectsofcon-
    ict,suchasdisplacement,massmigration,disruption
    tolivelihoods,socialbreakdown,violence,healthrisks
    andhumancasualties,allhaverippleefectsthatare
    feltthroughouttheglobalcontext.Conictoverwater
    resourcescanalsoturninto,orfuel,ethnicconicts.
    Becauseethnicconictismostcommonlyfuelledby
    collectivefearsforthefuture(LakeandRothchild,
    1998),itiseasytoseehowwaterscarcitycouldplayto
    suchfears.
    Waterhasneverbeenthesolecauseofamajorwar,
    butnationstatesasweknowthemhavealsoneverex-
    periencedthekindofwatershortagesthatareantici-
    pated.Althoughtheremayhavenotbeenanoutright
    waroverwater,ithasstill,historically,causedsufcient
    violenceandconictwithinandamongstatestowar-
    rantattention(PostelandWolf,2001).Wherewateris
    scarce,itcanbeviewedandinterpretedasasecurity
    threat(Gleick,1993).
    WhenexaminingthecaseofPakistanandIndiafor
    instance,itisclearthatwatercanbeapotentiallydi-
    visiveissueinacontextwherethetwocountriesare
    otherwisepursuingcooperativetalksandnegotiations.
    Forinstance,inordertofeeditsboominggrowth,ex-
    pandingpopulationandsoaringenergyneeds,India
    isbuildingnumerousmultipurposedams.Currentlyit
    isatvariousstagesofexecuting33projectsthatare
    raisingconcernsinPakistan.Themostcontroversial
    project,the330megawattdamontheKinshanganga
    RiverhassparkedareactioninthePakistan.Although
    220
    succeededinreallocatingwithlittleconictwa-
    terrightstohighervalueusessuchasexport-oriented
    agriculture,urbanwatersupplyandmining(Donoso,
    2003).

    Thereareusefulreasonsforincorporatingtheposi-
    tiveaspectsofthemarket-basedmechanismswhen
    consideringwaterresources.Forinstance,oneofthe
    reasonsforwaterresourcedepletionisthatwaterhas
    beengenerallyundervaluedasaresource.Itisthus
    importanttoplaceavalueonit.Whetherearmark-
    ingitasacommodityisthebestwaytoplaceavalue
    onit,issubjecttodebate.However,whetherthrough
    normsorvalues,waterresourcesmustbevaluedfor
    theirworth,otherwisethetrendofdegradationwill
    ensue.AshighlightedintheMillenniumEcosystem
    Assessment,theheterogeneousnatureofwatermakes
    itneitherapublicgoodnorprivategood,anditshould
    notbetreateduni-dimensionally(MES,2005).
    Whenattemptingtomakechoicesabouthowtoplace
    valueonwaterresourcesinparticularregions(inor-
    dertocontextualizetradeandeconomicpolicy),it
    maybeusefultocouchdecision-makingwithinthe
    rights-basedapproachthattheUNhasadopted(see
    Section1.2.4aboutwaterandsanitationasahuman
    right).Despitevaryingtrendsonhowtotreatwaterre-
    sourcesindiferentregions,therights-basedapproach
    canprovideabaselinewheretheprotectionofwater
    rights,particularlyofthemostvulnerable,underpins
    otherenterprises,legislationandpoliciesgoverning
    transactions.
    7.6.4Governancechallenges
    Watergovernancereferstotherangeofpolitical,so-
    cial,economicandadministrativesystemsthatarein
    placetoregulatedevelopmentandmanagementof
    waterresourcesandprovisionsofwaterservicesatdif-
    ferentlevels(GWP,2003,p.7).Althoughmanyinitia-
    tiveshavebeenestablishedtoaddresstheweakness-
    esinwatergovernance,thereremainsalargechasm
    betweenregionalgovernanceandglobalgovernance
    structures.
    Inmanyways,nationalstructuresareunabletoad-
    dressregionalwaterresourcesissues,someofwhich
    mayhaveglobalimpacts.Regionalandglobalmecha-
    nismsintervenewhenlocal-ornational-levelstructures
    areinsufcienttoaddresswaterproblems.Countries
    havealsosubscribedtointernationalprocessestohar-
    monizeperspectivesandapproachestoparticularuses
    tocapturevulnerableresourcesandforcemarginal
    groupstomigratetoecologicallysensitiveareas.This
    canleadtoregionalpowerstrugglesandinstability
    withintheinternationalcommunity,whichcouldpossi-
    blyprovideelementsforbroaderintra-stateandinter-
    stateconict(Homer-Dixon,1994).
    InChile,theexistenceofsecurepropertyrightsinwa-
    terappearstohavemadeanoticeablecontribution
    tothegrowthinthevalueofagriculturalproduction
    (LeeandJouravlev,1998).Theintroductionofwater
    marketscoincidedwithamajorincreaseinagricultural
    productionandproductivity.Theinuenceofwa-
    termarkets,however,cannotbefullyseparatedfrom
    theefectsofeconomicstabilityandothereconom-
    icreforms,especiallytradeliberalizationandsecure
    landrights.Tradingdoesappear,however,tohave
    STATUS,TRENDSANDCHALLENGES CHAPTER7
    Countries have
    also subscribed to
    international processes
    to harmonize
    perspectives and
    approaches to
    particular uses of
    water. Despite this,
    one of the major
    challenges is that
    countries attach
    diferent valuation
    to water and do not
    approach the resource
    with a common
    understanding.
    221 WWDR4 REGIONALCHALLENGES,GLOBALIMPACTS
    growthandchangemanagementcompetency(Shah
    etal.,2001).Butcommonaspectsofdiferentsystems
    canbeexplored(seeChapter14).
    Despitethevariationsthatmayoccurinregionalgov-
    ernanceframeworks,therearealsocommonalities.
    Thesecouldsupportthebasisofefectivestructures,
    andwouldinclude:
    Improvedtechnicalsystemsforwatermanagement
    Strengthenedlocalmanagers
    Efcientresourcemanagementatthelocallevel
    Improvedhorizontalandverticalcoordinationbe-
    tweendiferentlevelsofauthorities
    Improvedinformationandmonitoringsystems
    Consensus-building,especiallyinprofessional
    groups,enhancedpublicparticipationinknowledge
    managementofwaterresources
    Thepromotionofbothregionalandinternational
    cooperation
    Theseimprovementsmaybeadministeredandimple-
    mentedindiferentways,butcouldyieldtostrength-
    enedgovernancestructuresacrossdiferentregions.
    Oneofthechallengesofstrengtheninggovernance
    structuresisnancingthisappliesatboththeinter-
    nationalandthenationallevels.Theresourcesmay
    simplynotbeavailableforgivinganoverhaultoinef-
    cientorunderdevelopedadministrativesystems.As
    waterscarcitybecomesapressingissue,synergieswill
    havetobesoughtindiferentsectors.Waterwillnot
    onlyhavetobeaddressedbysustainabledevelopment
    orpovertyalleviationschemes,butwillhavetobein-
    tegratedmoresubstantiallyintointernationalcoopera-
    tion,diplomacy,securityandmigrationeforts.
    Waterlawandsciencecannotbediscreteareasof
    researchandexpertise.Theymustbeintegratedinto
    areaswhichmayseemunrelatedareassuchas
    education,urbanplanningandsocialdevelopment.
    Addressingwatershortagesinthefuturehastointe-
    gratenewlevelsofcross-sectoralandcross-regional
    thinkingandcoordinationandshouldincludealong-
    termvision.
    ofwater.Despitethis,oneofthemajorchallengesis
    thatcountriesattachdiferentvaluationtowaterand
    donotapproachtheresourcewithacommonunder-
    standing(Langridge,2008)(seeChapter10).There
    arethereforechallengesinvolvedintransposingagov-
    ernancestructurethatworksinoneregiontoanoth-
    erregionandharmonizingwaterpolicyobjectives
    remainsanelusivegoal.Aswaterissocloselylinked
    tosociety,economyandtheenvironment,thereare
    nosimpleoreasyanswersthatwouldensureproper
    governanceirrespectively.Althoughgovernancemay
    beexpressedindiferentorganizationalsystemsand
    itsformalcontentarrangeddiferently(suchaslaws
    andinstitutionalarrangements),designingthegov-
    ernancesystemforasocietymustconsiderthenatu-
    ralconditions,powerstructures,andneedsthatare
    specictothatsociety.
    Becauseinternationalgovernanceisdrivenbynational
    memberstates,itisnotsurprisingthatitisoftenfrag-
    mented.Yetpositiveexamplesexistwherediferent
    elementsofindividualsystemscanbereplicated.For
    instance,theUSA,FranceandAustraliahavedevel-
    opedhighlysophisticatedandresilientregimesfor
    integratedriverbasinmanagement(Shahetal.,2001).
    Manydevelopedcountriesaddressthenaturalvari-
    abilityintermsofsupply-sideinfrastructuretoassure
    reliablesupplyandreducerisks.Althoughdeveloping
    countriesmaynotbeabletoimportthesestructures
    becauseoftheirdiferingrealities(forinstancesupply-
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    theeverincreasingdemandsfromdemographic,eco-
    nomicandclimaticpressures),thesecountriesmay
    replicateotheraspectssuchaswaste-watertreatment
    andwaterrecyclingandmaypromotedemandman-
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    Theneedsofparticularconstituencieshavetobeat
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    Notes
    1 Seehttp://www.who.int/about/regions/afro/en/index.htmlfor
    theWHOsdenitionofnorthernAfricaandsub-SaharanAfrica
    (SSA).SSAexcludesAlgeria,Egypt,Libya,MoroccoandTunisia.
    2 Thissituationisfurthercomplicatedbythefactthatminimum
    waterlevelsarexedtoaccountfornavigation.
    3 ThetermsAsiaandthePacicandESCAPregionrefertothe
    groupofmembersandassociatemembersoftheEconomicand
    SocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacic.
    4 CalculationbyESCAPstafbasedontheJointMonitoring
    Programme2010report,accessedon10May2010at
    http://www.wssinfo.org/datamining/introduction.html
    5 Forthepurposeofthisanalysis,conictisnotlimitedtoarmed
    conict,butincludesallwater-relateddisputesnecessitating
    mediation.Whetherviolentornot,thesedisputeshave
    threatenedthestabilityofthesocio-economicdevelopment
    processintheregion.
    6 CalculationbyESCAPbasedondatafromUNEP(2002).
    7 TheUNEPguresarebasedonECLAC(2009),which
    denesextremelypoorasunabletomeetbasicnutritional
    requirements,evenifallmoneyisspentonfood.
    8 CaribbeancountriesinCentralAmericaandSouthAmerica:
    Suriname,Guyana,FrenchGuianaandBelize.

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    PhilippeBourseiller

    ManagingWater
    under Uncertainty
    andRisk
    PART 2
    Introduction
    8. Workingunderuncertaintyandmanagingrisk
    9. Understandinguncertaintyandrisksassociatedwithkeydrivers
    10. Unvaluedwaterleadstoanuncertainfuture
    11. Transformingwatermanagementinstitutionstodealwithchange
    12. Investmentandnancinginwaterforamoresustainablefuture
    13. Responsestoriskanduncertaintyfromawatermanagement
    perspective
    14. Responsestorisksanduncertaintiesfromoutofthewaterbox

    Author DanielP.Loucks
    INTRODUCTION
    PhilippeBourseiller
    WWDR4 231 INTRODUCTION
    Actinginanenvironmentofuncertain
    change
    Theworldisundergoingconsiderablechange.Political
    andsocialsystemsaretransforminginwaysthatare
    notalwayspredictable,producingavarietyofimpacts.
    Technologyisevolvingandlivingstandards,con-
    sumptionpatternsandlifeexpectanciesareallchang-
    ing.Humanpopulationsaregrowingandincreasingly
    movingtoexpandingurbanareaswhileagricultureis
    expandingtofeedthem.Consequently,landuseand
    coverisaltering,asistheclimate.Theratesatwhich
    thesechangesoccurareinmanycasesincreasing,
    whiletheirlong-termimpactsoftenremainuncertain.
    Discontinuitiesarepossibleandtippingpointscanex-
    istbeyondwhichchangeisirreversible.Thesechanges
    canimpactregionalwatercyclesinwaysthatalterthe
    quality,distributionandquantityoffreshwatersupply
    anddemand.

    Changesindailylives,lifestyles,technologyanden-
    vironmentwilllikelycontinueatanacceleratedrate.
    Eachdaycanbringnewrisks,uncertaintiesandop-
    portunities.Humansexperiencemorestresswhenex-
    pectedtoaccomplishmoreofeverythingfaster,more
    efcientlyandwithfewerresources.Changeisafact
    oflifeforeveryoneandeverythingthatlives.Seasons
    change,peoplechange,goalsandemotionschange,
    businesseschange,andinpartbecauseofchanging
    lifestylesandtechnology,sodoesthesupplyandqual-
    ityofwateravailabletomeetthedemandsthatresult
    fromthesechanges(see,forexample,Jacksonetal.,
    2001;KatesandClark,1996;Marien,2002;Ostrom,
    1990;TanseyandORiordan,1999).
    Howcanwatermanagersplanforandadapttoincreas-
    inglyuncertainfuturewaterresourceconditions?How
    canwaterusersplanforandadapttotheuncertainty
    offuturewatersupplyandquality?Howcanthepeople
    whocreate,regulateandadaptgovernancestructures
    fromlocaltogloballevels,withinwhichwealloperate
    andinteract,meettheneedsofalluserslivingnowand
    thosewhowillliveinthefuture?Thisincludestheneeds
    ofourenvironmentandtheunderprivilegedandvoice-
    less.Howcansocietyworktogethertoincreaselevels
    ofsustainabilitygivenuncertainfuturechange(Vincent,
    2007;WatkinsandMcKinney,1997)?
    Adaptingtochangepresentsanopportunity.What
    hashappenedinthepastcannotbechanged,but
    thefuturecanbeinuencedbythedecisionsbeing
    madenow.Waterisaprimarymediumthroughwhich
    changesinhumanactivityandtheclimateinteract
    withtheEarthssurface,itsecosystemsanditspeople.
    Itisthroughwateranditsqualitythatpeoplewillfeel
    theimpactofchangemoststrongly.Withoutproper
    adaptationorplanningforchange,hundredsofmil-
    lionsofpeoplewillbeatgreaterriskofhunger,poor
    health,energyshortageandpoverty,waterscarcity
    andpollution,and/orooding(Anderiesetal.,2004;
    Folkeetal.,2002;Ganoulis,2004;Hollingetal.,2002;
    Lu,2009;NRC,1983;Pahl-Wostletal.,2007).
    Manypeopleareconcernedabouttheenvironment,
    butmosttendnottotakeoradvocateenvironmental
    action.Oftenthecostsofpossibleremedialactionsare
    deemedtobenearterm,whereasthebenetscanbe
    perceivedtobefurtherinthefuture.Anotherreason
    forinactionisuncertaintyindeterminingtherelative
    meritsofdiferentactions.Efectivepublicpolicy-
    makingrequiresthatprofessionalsworktoclearly
    communicatetheuncertaintiessurroundingalterna-
    tivefutures,howthoseuncertaintiescanbereduced,
    andwhichactionscanprovidethebestassuranceof
    desiredoutcomesinthefaceofthoseuncertainties
    (CabinetOfceStrategyUnit,2002).
    Uncertaintyaboutthefutureisnotanexcuseforinac-
    tion.Decisionsonwaterinfrastructureinvestments,
    operationandmanagementneedtobemadeinthe
    neartermifbenetsaretobeobtainedinthelong
    term,thatis,inthefuture.Waitingdecadesformore
    preciseknowledgeisnotafeasibleoracceptableex-
    cuseforinaction.Decisionsregardingwaterinfrastruc-
    tureinvestmentsandoperationareneededbeforethe
    benetsoftheirservicescanbeobtained,andhence
    suchdecisionswillundoubtedlybebasedonuncer-
    taindataandassumptions.Exactknowledgeabout
    futureswillneverbeavailable.Allwhoimpactwa-
    teravailability,howitismanaged,andhowitisused,
    evenindirectly,needtomakedecisionsbasedonnon-
    preciseinformationavailableatthattime(Cosgrove
    andRijsberman,2000;FuntowiczandRavetz,1990;
    MorganandHenrion,1990).
    Increasedinteractionamongtheinterestedpublic
    andscientistsandpolicy-makersenablesimprove-
    mentindecision-makingprocesses.Thisinteraction
    needstoquestionandexpandtherangeofpoli-
    ciesthatareproposed,debatedandimplemented.
    Participantsneedtohelpinformpolicy-makersand
    thepublic,andthepublicneedstomakeinaction
    unacceptable.Stakeholderscanofernewideasfor
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 232
    politicaldebateabouthowsocietyandnaturecan
    beorganized.Theycantestandexploreallideasto
    assesstheirrelativemerits.Allstakeholdersshould
    visualizealternativefutures,developalternativepoli-
    ciesformeetingthefuturestheylike,andassess
    theirlikelyimpactsanduncertainties(NRC,1996;
    WildavskyandDake,1990).
    Whatisknownnoworwhatcanbeassumednow?Itis
    importantto:
    Recognizethatdecision-makersingovernments,the
    privatesectorandcivilsociety,andallofusindivid-
    ually,dealwithmultipleissuesinvolvingriskandun-
    certainty.Particulardecisionsmayormaynothave
    beeninuencedbyconsiderationsofwater,even
    thoughtheymayhaveanimpactonwater.
    Beawareofandunderstandthebroaderpicture
    andwhatishappeninginothersectorsofthe
    economyandsociety,soastohelpinformthe
    peoplemakingdecisionsinthosesectorsoftheir
    impactsonwater,andoftheimpactsofwateron
    them.Coordinatedandsynergisticmanagementin
    relateddomainsimprovesoveralloutcomes.After
    all,thesesectorsanddomainsaresubjecttothe
    sameorsimilaruncertaintiesthatchallengewater
    managersandusers,andarecontinuallyengaging
    inriskmanagement.
    Acceptthatchangewillcontinueintothefuture,
    andthatmuchofitislargelybeyondsocietys
    control.Consequently,approachestowater
    managementshouldbeadaptive,responsiveand
    anticipatory.
    Approachsustainablewatermanagementasajour-
    neyalonganadaptationpathway,ratherthanan
    arrivalatadestination.
    Favouradaptationdecisionsthatarerobustto
    uncertaintyineconomic,socialandecosystem
    domains.
    Trackemergingpatternsandassociatedresponses
    bystrengtheningmonitoringnetworksandfreshwa-
    terindicators.
    Shiftfromimpactsthinkingtoadaptationthinking,
    andadoptstrategiesthathaveagoodchanceofre-
    sultinginminimal,ifany,regrets.
    Buildchangeadaptationintoallhierarchiesofwater
    resourcesmanagement,fromnationaltoriverbasin
    andlocalactions.
    Secureenvironmentalowsasoneofthecoreob-
    jectivesofwaterresourcesmanagementtoachieve
    balancedbenetsforall.
    Manageexistingandbuildandoperatenewwater
    infrastructuresinclimate-smartways.
    Includenaturalinfrastructures(e.g.wetlands,
    oodplains)inresponseoptionsandemploythem
    whereverfeasible.
    Improvefreshwaterecosystemconnectivityand
    integrity.
    Impactsthinkingreliesontheabilitytopredictthe
    impactsofdecisions.Currentpracticeplacesgreat
    faithintheabilityofanalyststopredictthespecicim-
    pactsofalternativedecisions,whichdrive,oratleast
    inuence,changeadaptationactivities.Thisisreactive
    impactsthinking;theproblemisthattheassumptions
    madeandtheimpacttopicsselectedbyanalystscan
    betoonarrow,andareoftenuncertain.Thisisreect-
    edintheestimatedimpactsoroutcomes.Adaptation
    thinkingacknowledgestheinherentuncertaintyasso-
    ciatedwithmodel-basedimpactpredictionsandtreats
    economic,socialandecosystemsasdynamicentities
    thatwilllikelydiferfromcurrentandpaststatesfor
    multiplereasons.Thisapproachpromotesexibility
    andcontinuousscenariodevelopmentandanalyses
    (Alcamoetal.,2000;vanNotten,2005).
    Uncertaintyconstrainsourabilitytopreciselyqualify
    andquantifytherisksassociatedwithdiferentman-
    agementactions.Theprecautionaryprinciplesug-
    geststhatthegreatertheuncertainty(i.e.thelessour
    capacitytopreciselydeneorquantifyrisk)andthe
    morecatastrophicthepossibleoutcome,themore
    cautiousandreversiblethemanagementactions
    shouldbe(UNESCO,2005).Althoughfutureresearch
    mayhelpreducesomeuncertainties,itmayalsoun-
    covernewuncertainties,whichinfactincreasesour
    knowledgeaboutwhatisuncertainandperhapsthe
    rangeofthatuncertainty.Uncertaintyimpairsfuture
    projections,andsomeofthisuncertaintyincludeslack
    ofcondenceaboutwhatisuncertain.Surprisesand
    unpredictableshiftsinsocietalgoalsandneedsare
    bytheirnatureuncertainandassuchcannotbe
    accuratelypredicted.
    Waterplanners,managersandusers,andanyonewho
    inanywayimpactsonthequantity,quality,distri-
    butionanduseofwater,canactivelyaddressun-
    certainty.Notalluncertaintiescanbereducedby
    furtherresearch,andevenwherereductionispos-
    sibleitcomesatacost.Sciencecanhelparticulate
    whereandhowtoreduceuncertaintyandunderwhat
    conditionsitcannotbereduced.Therearelimitsto
    WWDR4 233 INTRODUCTION
    scienticknowledgeandtheroleofscientistsin
    decision-making.
    Theneedtoconsiderriskanduncertaintywasac-
    knowledgedintheclosingchapterofthethirdedi-
    tionoftheWorld Water Development Report(WWAP,
    2009),withanemphasisontheconsequencesof
    inaction.Riskanduncertaintyhavelongbeenarou-
    tinechallengeforpeoplemanagingandusingwater
    acrossalleconomicsectorsandregionsoftheworld.
    Whatisnewistherecognitionofthenonstationar-
    ityofhydrologicalprocesses,broughtonbyclimate
    change,acceleratedandunpredictablesocietaland
    economicdevelopment,anddemographicdynam-
    ics(Koutsoyiannis,2006;Millyetal.,2008).Thishas
    increaseduncertaintyandtheassociatedrisks,and
    madethetaskofriskmanagementmorecomplexand
    integraltodecision-making.
    Part1describesthenationalandglobalchallengesof
    meetingplanetarysocio-economicobjectives.What
    futuresarepossible?Thissecondpartofthisreport
    discussestheconceptsandconsequencesofmaking
    decisionsunderriskanduncertainty,andhowthese
    canbefactoredintothedecision-makingprocessthat
    impactswaterresources.Water,beinganinputtoall
    economicactivitiesandlifeitself,isimpactedbyde-
    cisionsmadeinawiderangeofsectorsordomains,
    themselvesoftenhavingnodirectinvolvementwith
    water.Decision-makersalsofacemultiplerisksand
    uncertainties.Decisionsaremadeandriskismanaged
    indiferentwaysineachsectorordomain.Providing
    decision-makerswithtoolsthatshowthebroader
    waterresourceconsequencesofvariousdecisions
    (actions,inaction)cansubstantiallycontributeto
    betteroverallresourcemanagementandreduced
    threatsandadverseimpacts(Bieretal.,1999).
    Givenuncertainfutureclimatesandland-usechanges
    thatalterwaterowsandstorage,watermanagersare
    nowasking:Whatlevelofprotectionisprovidedby
    theparticulardesignofaleveeoroodstoragecapac-
    ityinareservoir?Whatprotectionagainstdroughts
    isprovidedbyspeciedactivestoragecapacitiesin
    reservoirstogetherwithparticularoperatingpolicies?
    Exactlywhereisthe100-yearoodplainboundary
    forthepurposesofoodplainland-usezoning,and
    possiblyinsurance?Thoseresponsibleformakingor
    inuencingpolicyandinvestmentsareasking:Which
    amongthevariousprioritiesarethemostimportant
    iftrade-ofsbecomenecessary?Whatmeasurescan
    betakentoreducerisks?Howmuchuncertaintycan
    beincorporatedintodecisions,takingintoaccountcli-
    matechangeandplausiblesocial,economic,nancial,
    culturalandenvironmentalfutures?
    Part2discusseswaysofanalysingandrespondingto
    someofthechallengesandrisks.Itconcludeswith
    examplesofhowbothwatermanagementandsocio-
    economicpolicyarealreadybeingusedtoaddressun-
    certaintyandassociatedrisks.

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    PhilippeBourseiller PhilippeBourseiller

    Authors DavidCoates,DanielP.Loucks,JeroenAertsandSusanvantKlooster
    Contributors UriShamirandWilliamJ.Cosgrove
    CHAPTER 8
    Working under uncertainty
    and managing risk

    Water managers and users are accustomed to working with and making decisions under
    conditions of risk and uncertainty. The predictability of water supplies derived from
    watersheds depends in part on nature, but precipitation, which typically becomes stream
    or river ow or inltrates into a groundwater aquifer, is variable in character. The demands
    of water users can also vary and depend on uncertain population size and distribution, as
    well as on unpredictable weather and changing social and economic conditions. Costs and
    benets of water treatment, distribution and use are always subject to uncertain market (and
    other) conditions. Technologies evolve and can ofer new solutions, some as yet unknown
    or unimagined. Communities, corporations and irrigators, to mention a few users whose
    economic and social welfare depend on reliable supplies and qualities of water, have hedged
    their exposure to possible shortages and pollution, even prior to awareness that such
    uncertainties and risks are increasing due to changes in climate, population increases, lifestyle
    shifts and watershed conditions.
    Water is vital for the production of almost everything. An average car tyre requires about
    2 m
    3
    of water to manufacture; a ton of steel calls for 237 m
    3
    ; an egg requires about 0.5 m
    3
    ;
    and a single 200 mm semiconductor that powers a computer requires 28 m
    3
    of ultrapure
    water. As water footprints grow, individuals, companies and entire cities will need to face the
    threat that there may soon not be sufcient water to meet all demands, both of and within
    watercourses (Hoekstra and Chapagain, 2008).
    Some people may feel that water scarcity is not yet a cause for concern; after all, the world
    is covered with water. However, 97.5% of the planets water is saltwater. The remaining 2.5%,
    of which only a fraction is accessible surface or groundwater, is used for essential functions,
    such as sustaining life, growing food, supporting various economic activities and ecological
    processes, producing energy, transporting cargo and assimilating wastes (Kumma et al.,
    2010; Palmer et al., 2008; UN-Water, 2006).
    Uncertainties are exacerbated by the paucity or complete lack of reliable data on both supply
    and demand. In any region, no one can predict when and to what extent droughts or oods
    will occur. Both droughts and oods provide the potential for damage, in other words, risks;
    both create uncertainties regarding what action to take and when (Berstein, 1998; Brugnach
    et al., 2008; Giles, 2002; Hofmann-Riem and Wynne, 2002; Kasperson et al., 2003; Rayner,
    1992; Slovic et al., 2004; Tversky and Kahneman, 1974).
    WWDR4 237 WORKINGUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDMANAGINGRISK
    8.1Conceptsofuncertaintyandrisk
    8.1.1Somedenitions
    Riskcommonlyreferstoanadverseeventorthecon-
    sequenceofadecision.(seeSection8.1.2;seealso
    Aven,2003;BedforeandCooke,2001;Cooke,2009;
    CovelloandMumpower,2001;KaplanandGarrick,1981;
    Kaspersonetal.,1988;Mays,1996;Slovic,1992;Yoe,1996).
    Uncertaintyisoftenusedinconnectionwiththeterm
    risk(sometimeseveninterchangeably).Themost
    widelyheldmeaningofuncertaintyreferstoastate
    ofmindcharacterizedbydoubt,basedonalackof
    knowledgeaboutwhatcurrentlyexistsorwhatwillor
    willnothappeninthefuture.Itistheoppositeofcer-
    tainty,whichisaconvictionaboutaparticularsituation
    (BogardiandKundzewicz,2002;MorganandHenrion,
    1990;Pindyk,2007).
    Condencelevelorintervalappliestoapopulation
    sampling,wherevariationordiferencesofopinionex-
    ist.Supposeastudyneededtoascertainthepercentage
    ofhomeownersonaoodplainwhobelievetheywillbe
    safefromoodsforthenext10years,orthepercentage
    ofsimulatedoodplaindevelopmentscenariosinwhich
    nooodoccurredovera10-yearperiod.Dependingin
    partonthesamplesizecomparedtothepopulation
    size,thatis,thenumberofpeoplewhocouldhavebeen
    askedthatquestionorthenumberofscenariosthat
    couldbesimulated,acondencelevelandintervalcan
    bedetermined.Iftheresultsinbothcaseswere85%,
    theresultsmightbestatedasWeare95%condent
    that85%ofthoselivingontheoodplainthinktheywill
    beabletoavoidanyooddamageinthenext10years,
    withamarginoferrorofplusorminus3%.Inother
    wordsonecanbe95%surethatbetween82and88%of
    thepopulationbelievetheywillstaydryoverthatten-
    yearperiod(Berger,1985;Coles,2001).
    8.1.2Riskanduncertaintyinwater
    Itisimpossibletofullypredicthowwellanywaterre-
    sourcesystemwillperforminthefuture.Suchsys-
    temsaresubjecttochanginganduncertaininputs,and
    servechanginganduncertaindemands.Riskandun-
    certaintycharacterizemuchofwhatwatermanagers
    andsocio-economicpolicy-makersmustdealwith.The
    moretheyunderstandtheseuncertaintiesandrisks,
    themoreefectivelytheycanplan,designandmanage
    watersystemstoreducethem.
    Thosewhodependonwatersuppliesorservicespro-
    videdbywatercannotbecertainthattheywillalways
    havethewatertheyneedorwant,orfreedomfrom
    waterhazards(i.e.oodsordroughtsorpollution).No
    onecanfullydependontherecreationaluseofwater
    instorageorinriversorstreams.Noonedependent
    onhydropowercanbeassuredofitsreliablesupply.In
    fact,nobodydependentonanyenergytypecanbe
    assuredofitsreliablesupply,inpartbecauseofthe
    uncertaintyofneededwater.Thisistherationalebe-
    hindthebalanceddevelopmentofwaterandenergy
    options.
    Knowledgeindealingwithrisksanduncertaintiesof-
    tencomesfrompastexperiences,observationsand
    records.However,thesearenolongeradequateindi-
    catorsoftherisksanduncertaintiesfacedbyfuture
    waterplanners,managers,usersandpolicy-makers,
    duetouncertaintiesgeneratedbyfuturechangesin
    populationgrowthandspatialdistribution,watercon-
    sumptionpatterns,socio-economicdevelopment,and
    climatevariabilityandchange.Itisthereforecrucial
    tounderstandthesourcesofuncertaintyandlearn
    howtoanalyse,internalizeandcopewiththerisksthat
    ariseduetotheseuncertainties.
    8.1.3Understandingsourcesandtypesofuncertainty
    Uncertaintycanresultfromvariabilityofanunderly-
    ingprocessorincompleteknowledgeofthatprocess.
    Decision-makersareoftenrequiredtomakedecisions,
    sometimeshavingconsiderableconsequencesandin-
    volvingconsiderableexpendituresofmoney,without
    knowingwithadequatecertaintytheextentofthose
    possibleconsequencesandexpenditures(Knight,1921).
    Sourcesofuncertaintyrelatedtowatersystemsand
    theirmanagementincludelackofdataorrandomand
    systematicerrorsindataacquisition,recordingand
    storage,inabilitytopredictfutureprocessesthatde-
    terminefuturesupplyanddemand,anduncertainty
    aboutthevariousnaturalorphysicalprocessesofthe
    watercycle.
    Anothersourceofuncertaintyissocialuncertainty.
    Humanbehaviourisunpredictableand,therefore,the
    behaviourofindividuals,societyanditsinstitutions
    isalsouncertain,asis,forexample,marketbehaviour.
    Technicalinnovations,theirperceptionanduse,and
    theirimpactonourenvironmentarealsooftenunpre-
    dictable,andthusuncertain.
    Uncertaintyaboutthevalueofempiricalquantitiescan
    alsoarisefromimpreciseuseoflanguagedescribing
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 238 CHAPTER8
    information,anddisagreementamongdiferentex-
    pertsabouthowtointerpretavailableevidence.
    Finally,thereisignorance.Someaspectsofhydrologi-
    calsystemsarestillnotunderstoodandsomeofthese
    aspectsareevenunknown,sothequestionofwhat
    isnotunderstoodisitselfnotwellunderstood.This
    makesithardeventoasktherightquestions.These
    aretheunknownunknowns.Thingsweknowwedo
    notknowmayoftenbeaddressedandsometimesbet-
    terunderstoodthroughresearch.Thingsthatwedo
    notevenrecognizewedonotknowareonlyrevealed
    byadoptinganalways-questioningattitudetowards
    whatwehearandseeandmeasureandanalyse
    (Walkeretal.,2003).
    8.1.4Estimatingtheextentanddurationof
    uncertainty
    ChangesinpopulationsandtheirdistributiononEarth,
    theirlifestylesandtheirinstitutions,togetherwith
    changesintheclimatewillundoubtedlychangethe
    waterenvironmentoverthecomingdecadesandcen-
    turies.Thequestionishow.Uncertaintiesofsupply
    anddemandbothintheshortandlongtermwilllikely
    remain.Whileobservationsandanalysescanreduce
    theseuncertainties,inmostcases,nosinglepieceof
    evidenceorexperimentalresultcanprovidedenitive
    answerstoeliminatetheseuncertainties.Infactjust
    theoppositeislikelytohappenovertime.Decision-
    makers,plannersresponsibleformakingrecommenda-
    tionstodecision-makers,andresearcherspredicting
    thelikelyfutureimpactsofpossibledecisionsarefacing
    increasinguncertaintiesthefurtheronelooksintothe
    future.Nevertheless,everyonemakingdecisionsthat
    willimpactfutureeventsneedsinformedjudgments
    aboutplausiblefutures,eventhoughtheyareuncer-
    tain.Probabilisticestimatesofkeyquantitiescanallbe
    usefultoplanningandassessmentactivities,suchas
    thevariousextentstowhichitisdrierorwetterorhot-
    terorcolderthanusualduetotheincreaseofatmos-
    phericconcentrationofgreenhousegases;orestimates
    ofthevariousheightsofsealevelriseastheaverage
    temperatureoftheEarthincreases;orofvariousin-
    creasesindemandsforfoodinresponsetopopulation
    andlifestylechanges,whichinturnwillimpactdemands
    forirrigationwaterandwateruseefciency.Analysts
    seektoincorporateprobabilisticdescriptionsintotheir
    modelsandanalyses,usuallybyperformingmultiple
    simulationsonfastcomputers,eachsimulationusinga
    diferentinputscenarioorsetofassumptionsaboutthe
    designand/oroperationofthesystembeingsimulated.
    Theresultsoftheseanalysescanbepresentedalong
    withtheirprobabilities.Designsorpoliciesthatyieldre-
    sultsacceptabletostakeholdersacrossawiderangeof
    modelinputsareconsideredrobusttochangesinfuture
    conditions.Someofthetoolsusedtoidentifysuchpoli-
    ciesaredescribedlaterinthischapter.
    8.1.5Understandingrisk
    Riskanditsvariousdescriptionsarehighlyinuencedby
    individualandsocialperceptions.Riskperceptionand
    tolerancedependonapersonslikelihoodofharm,con-
    troloverharm,extentofharmorhazard,voluntariness
    ofexposuretopossibleharm,andtrustinthesourcesof
    riskinformation.Asriskperceptionscanafectcollective
    andindividualchoices,decisionsmaybenetfrommak-
    ingriskmoreexplicit.Examplesofcurrentwater-related
    risksarewaterscarcity,qualitydegradation,lossofeco-
    systemservicesandextremehazardousevents,which
    inturnmaybeinuencedbysocio-economicdevelop-
    mentsanddecisions(Ganoulis,1994).
    Awarenessofrisksandtheimportanceplacedonthem
    dependsinpartontimehorizons.Thisisanissuefor
    climatechange,becausechangesareexpectedto
    occuroverdecadesratherthanyears.Societyhasa
    problemwithdecidingwhattodoabouteventswhose
    probabilitiesofoccurringareverylowbutwillprovoke
    Risk perception and
    tolerance depend on
    a persons likelihood
    of harm, control
    over harm, extent
    of harm or hazard,
    voluntariness of
    exposure to possible
    harm, and trust in
    the sources of risk
    information.
    WWDR4 239 WORKINGUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDMANAGINGRISK
    thestateofthesesystemsovertimewillatsomepoint
    intheprocessesbecomeirreversible.Thiscanhave
    long-termconsequencesforthosesystems.
    Thedenitionoftippingpointcouldinprinciplebeap-
    pliedinothersituationsatanytime,forexample,deci-
    sionsmadewithrespecttogovernanceofcountries,or
    withrespecttomilitaryactions.Morecommonex-
    amplesoftippingpointsapplytostructuresmadeby
    engineers.Metalfatigueisawell-knownphenomenon,
    associatedwithaircraft.Withincreaseduseaircraft
    begintoexhibitcracksinthewingandtailstructures.
    Periodicinspectionsprovideawaytomonitorthese
    cracksandpreventthemfromreachingatippingpoint,
    whichcanresultinentirewingfailureorcontrolfailure
    duetolossoftailcomponents.
    severeconsequencesiftheydohappen,suchasthe
    collapseofadamortheoccurrenceofaone-in-a-
    thousand-yearoodoracatastrophicwater-related
    epidemic.Theseproblemshavegivenrisetocriteria
    liketheprecautionaryprincipleandtheconceptof
    safeminimumstandards,whichwillbediscussedlater.
    However,concernfortheextremeconsequencesof
    lowprobabilityeventstotheexclusionofdealingwith
    muchmorecommonvariationswithmuchhigher
    probabilitiesisnotdesirable.
    8.1.6Modeluncertainty
    Anymodelofasocialornaturalsystemisasimplied
    approximationofthatsystem.Modelsareusedtobet-
    terunderstandsuchsystemsandestimatethepossible
    impactsofvariousdecisionsafectingthosesystems.
    Ingeneral,themostpreferredandusefulmodelisthe
    mostsimpleandunderstandableonethatprovides
    theneededordesiredinformationwiththeneeded
    ordesiredaccuracy.Thechoiceofmodelusedforany
    analysiswilldependinpartontheavailablescien-
    ticknowledgeanddata,andtheintendeduseofthe
    modeloutput.Inthissense,thechoiceofamodelis
    subjectiveandpragmatic.
    Uncertaintyaboutthefunctionalformof(theassump-
    tionsbuiltinto)amodelcanarisejustascanuncer-
    taintyaboutthequalityofitsinputdata.Bothcanlead
    todisagreementsamongdiferentexpertsabouthow
    tointerpretthemodeloutput.Afundamentalproblem
    andpotentialsourceofuncertaintyisthatthepeople
    whoperformanalysesareoftennotclearaboutthe
    objectivesanddecisionrulesthattheyshouldassume
    andincorporatewithintheirmodels.Insuchcasesit
    makessenseformodeloperatorstoprovidearangeof
    optionstothestakeholdersanddecision-makers,each
    representingadiferentmixofvariousobjectives.
    8.1.7Thresholdsandtippingpoints
    Thetermtippingpointcommonlyreferstoacriti-
    calthresholdatwhicharelativelysmallperturbation
    canqualitativelyalter,perhapsirreversibly,thestate
    ordevelopmentofasystem(Brugnachetal.,2003;
    Gladwell,2000;Lentonetal.,2008;Kelleretal.,2008;
    WalkerandMeyers,2004).Tippingpointsrelatedto
    changesinAtlanticthermohalinecirculations,thedie-
    backandlossofAmazonrainforest,andthemeltingof
    theGreenlandicesheethavereceivedrecentattention
    inthepress.Ineachcase,scientistsbelievethatthere
    isachancethatthegradualchangesthattakeplacein
    In2007,thegovernmentoftheNetherlandsimplemented
    astudyoftheimpactsofsealevelriseasaresultofex-
    pectedclimatechangeincombinationwithlandsubsid-
    ence,urbanizationandincreasingpeakdischargesof
    majorrivers.Theirgoalwastodeterminehowbestto
    makethecountryresilienttoworst-caseclimatechange
    conditions.Problemssurroundingtheupkeepoflong-term
    livelihoodsinfragiledeltasunderclimatechange,urbani-
    zationandlandsubsidenceareuniversal,butstrategiesto
    copewiththemrequiretailoringtolocalcircumstances.
    ThenationalDeltaCommissionoversawthestudy,mem-
    bersofwhichincludedrenownedscientists(notonlyinthe
    eldofwater,butalsofood,spatialplanningandclimate),
    aswellasrepresentativesfromthenancesectorandpri-
    vatecontractors.Allinterestswererepresented.Theirtasks
    includedexploringwherepresentpoliciesareinadequate
    tocopewithworstcase(climate)change,identifyingwhat
    andwhentippingpointsmayapply,thatis,thepointat
    whichcertainpoliciesormeasuresbecometechnically
    impossible,nanciallyunafordableorsociallyunaccepta-
    ble;developingafuturevisionaboutwhereDeltapeo-
    plewouldwishtolivein2100;derivingstrategiesstart-
    ingfromthetippingpointsforhowtorealizethedesired
    visionormovetowardsit;ensuringexibilitytobeable
    toadjusttoslowerorfasterchangesorchangedvaluesof
    futuregenerations,startingwithno-regretmeasures;and
    ensuringlong-termimplementationthroughaDeltaFund,
    aDeltaCommissionerandaDeltaLaw.Withinthreeyears
    theDutchGovernmenthadavisiontomakethecountry
    climateresilient,passedaDeltaLawinParliament,created
    aDeltaFund,appointedaDeltaCommissionerandagreed
    onaDeltaImplementationPlan.
    BOX 8.1
    DutchDeltaApproach
    Source: Policy Research Corporation (2009).
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 240 CHAPTER8
    Box8.1referstotippingpointsthatsomemayconsider
    asbranchingpointsinscenarios.Theywouldargue
    thesebranchingpointsordecisionpointsarenottip-
    pingpointsinastrictscienticsense.
    8.1.8Nonstationarity
    Waterresourcesmanagement,waterinfrastructure
    planninganddesignrelyonanunderstandingofthe
    watercycleandhydraulicsastheyapplytoparticular
    sites.Forthepurposesofplanninganddesign,engi-
    neershavetypicallyassumedthatthehydrological
    processesinaparticularwatershedorbasincouldbe
    describedbyprobabilitydistributionsthatwerenot
    changingovertime;thatis,thehistoricalstatistical
    characteristicsofthoseprocesseswereassumedes-
    sentiallyconstantovertime,orstationary.Themore
    theseextremeeventshappenduetochangesinthe
    Earthsclimateorfromunpredictablehumanbehav-
    iour,themorechallengingitistoplanandmanage
    water.Thequestionishowbesttoincludethesenon-
    stationarityconsiderationsofbothwatersupplyand
    demandinwaterplanningandmanagement.Because
    ofthis,waterresourcesplannersandmanagersmust
    applyasignicantamountofjudgmentintheiranaly-
    ses,duetochangesinlanduse,urbanization,andthe
    impactsofachangingclimatethatinuencefuture
    precipitation,evaporation,groundwaterinltration,
    surfacerunofandchannelow(Aertsetal.,2011;
    BlockandBrown,2009;Folkeetal.,2004;Hamilton
    andKeim,2009;Holling,1986).
    Themoretheseextremeeventshappenduetochang-
    esintheEarthsclimateorfromunpredictablehuman
    behaviour,themorechallengingitistoplanandman-
    agewater.Understandingthechangestakingplace
    inriverandaquifersystemsconstitutesanimportant
    challengeforwatermanagers.Thequestionishow
    besttoincludethesenonstationarityconsiderationsof
    bothwatersupplyanddemandinwaterplanningand
    management.
    8.1.9Otherkeyconcepts
    Lackofknowingwhatisunknownisanextremestate
    ofuncertainty.Manyofthedeningevents,technolog-
    icaldevelopmentsandscienticdiscoveriesofrecent
    timeswereunknowableandevenunimaginableafew
    decadesago.
    Indeterminacyistheuncertaintythatcomesfrom
    notfullyunderstandingtheperformancecharacteris-
    ticsofcomplexsystems.Itarisesbecausecompleteor
    perfectknowledgeofcomplexsystems,whichwould
    permitthecrediblecalculationofprobabilitiesofvari-
    ousoutcomes,rarelyexists.Likewise,thefullrangeof
    potentialoutcomesisusuallynotknown.
    Reliabilityindicatestheprobabilityofoneormore
    performanceindicatorvaluesbeingconsideredsat-
    isfactory.Theconceptdependsonathresholdvalue
    thatseparatessatisfactoryandunsatisfactoryvalues
    ofeachindicatorormeasureofperformance.There
    canbevariouslevelsofreliabilityassociatedwith
    multiplethresholdlevels(DucksteinandParent,1994;
    Hashimotoetal.,1982;PlateandDuckstein,1988).
    Robustnessindicateshowwellasystemperformsover
    arangeofpossibleinputscenariospertainingtowhat
    isuncertain(Hashimotoetal.,1982).
    Resilienceisameasureoftheabilitytoadapttochang-
    esandrecoverfromdisturbances,whileprovidingop-
    tionsforfuturedevelopments(Fiering,1982,Hashimoto
    etal.,1982;Holling,1973;Walkeretal.,2004).
    Regretisameasureofanunsatisfactorystateresult-
    ingfromadecision.Systemscanbedesignedandop-
    eratedtominimizethemaximum(worst)regretthat
    couldoccurormaximizetheminimum(worst)levelof
    performance.Bothminimaxandmaximinobjectives
    attempttoreducethemostextremerisksorconse-
    quencesoffailure.
    Surpriseoccurswhenthereisanabruptordiscontinu-
    ouschangeinaphysicalorsocio-economicsystem
    thatisunexpected.
    Vulnerabilityisanimportantmeasure,alongwithreli-
    ability,associatedwithanyperformanceindicator.Its
    variousforms(expected,maximum,condencelevel)
    indicatetheconsequencesofafailure,shouldafailure
    occur(Hashimotoetal.,1982;Heltbergetal.,2009).
    8.2Howuncertaintyandriskafect
    decision-making
    Itiscommonfordecision-makersdealingwithwaterto
    havetomakechoiceswithoutknowingwithcertainty
    theoutcomeoftheirdecisions.Thisuncertaintyofout-
    comeandthedecision-makersattitudestowardsrisk
    invariablyimpacttheirdecisions(Walkeretal.,2003).
    Forexample,afarmermustmakeplantingdecisions
    withoutknowinghowmuchrainwillbeavailable,and
    WWDR4 241 WORKINGUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDMANAGINGRISK
    itsdistributionoverthegrowingseason.Theoutcome
    ofhisplantingdecisionswillbeunknownuntilthetime
    ofharvest.Alternatively,anexpandingrmwantsto
    constructanewbuildingandmustchoosealoca-
    tion.NewOrleansisalocationwhichposessigni-
    cantrewards,butthecompanyisuncertainifweather
    (e.g.hurricanes)willstrikeandresultinalargeloss.
    Inanotherexample,thepriceapotentialhomeowner
    iswillingtopayforahousemaydependontherisk
    ofitbeingooded.Whetherthehouseisgoingtobe
    oodedisuncertain,butifitisbuiltonaoodplainthe
    riskexists.Thatriskmaybemitigatedinpartbyood-
    proongorbypurchasingoodinsurancetorecover
    theeconomicloss.
    Thedecisionspeoplemakeunderuncertaintyalsode-
    pendontheirattitudetowardsrisk.Forexample,ifa
    mayorofatownisfacewiththechoiceofincreasing
    thelevelofprotectionofalevee,whichcouldreduce
    ooddamageconsiderably,orspendingthatmoneyon
    roadmaintenance,thatmayormustconsiderthelikeli-
    hoodofaoodoccurrenceasopposedtogenerating,
    perhaps,moreimmediateandcontinuingpublicappre-
    ciationandsupportbyimprovingtheconditionofthe
    townsroads.Ifthemayoroptsforroadmaintenance
    andaooddoesoccur,resultingindamage,publicap-
    preciationandsupportwilldisappear.Ifthemayoris
    riskaverse,eventhoughtheprobabilityofaoodmay
    below,heorshemaynotwishtotaketheriskofincur-
    ringalargelossandlosepublicsupport,asaresultof
    lackofadequateoodprotection(seeBox8.2).
    Diferentpeopleperceiveriskdiferently,depending
    onthecontextorenvironmentinwhichthedecisions
    aremade.Managersdonotalwaysconsidertherisks
    asinherenttothesituation,andavoidacceptingrisk
    byconsideringitassubjecttocontrol.Manybelieve
    thatbyusingtheirskillstheycanreducerisk.Others
    relymoreontheirsubjectivejudgmentsthanonmath-
    ematicallybasedanalyses.Themorecatastrophicthe
    consequencesofmakingthewrongdecision,theless
    likelymanagerswillmakedecisionsthatacceptrisks
    explicitly.
    Whenfacedwithaproblemordecisionthatinvolves
    risk,managerscaneitheraccepttheriskorattemptto
    reduceitbeforemakingthedecision.Waysofreduc-
    ingriskincludeconductingfurtheranalysesandcol-
    lectingmoreinformation.Insomecases,suchasfor
    hedgingagainstincurringooddamage,itmightbe
    possibletobuyinsurance.Thistransferssomeofthe
    risktoathirdparty,reducingtheconsequencesofa
    risk.Itmightalsobepossibletocarryoutpilotstud-
    iesbeforemakingmajorinfrastructuredecisions,for
    example,advanceddesalinationorwastewatertreat-
    menttechnology,orlettingthesuppliertakepartof
    theriskandmakingthisclearinthepurchasecontract.
    Finally,thedecisiononcemadecanincludeprovisions
    forfuturemodications,ifpossible,orifnotitshould
    besufcientlyrobustforarangeoffutureconditions
    (Alertsetal.,2008;Burton,1996;Callawayetal.,2008;
    DessaiandvanderSluijs,2007;DETR,2000;Elshayeb,
    2005;Liuetal.,2000;Lofstedt,2003;MillerandYates,
    2006;NRC,2000;UNDP,2004;vanAalstetal.,2007;
    UNDRO,1991).
    8.2.1Approachestoinformdecision-makingunder
    riskanduncertainty
    Whensufcientinformationisavailabletodetermine
    probabilitiesofdecisionoutcomesandevaluatethe
    consequences,decision-makingcanbebasedonrisk
    analysis.Decision-makingmaybeassistedbytheuse
    ofawidevarietyofanalyticaltoolsandtechniques,
    varyingfromthesimpletothesophisticated(Downing
    etal.,1999;Fredericketal.,1997;Greenetal.,2000;
    Hobbs,1997;Karamouzetal.,2003;Lietal.,2009;
    LoucksandvanBeek,2005;NOAA,2009;Simonovic,
    2008;WillowsandConnell,2003).Theresultiseither
    TheinterimoodinquiryreportintotheJanuary2011state-
    wideoodingdisasters,entitledUnderstanding Floods:
    Questions and Answers,bytheQueenslandFloodsScience,
    EngineeringandTechnicalPanel,callsforanewtestof
    whatconstitutesappropriatedevelopment.Thereportsays
    thatood-riskplanningshouldconsideracombinationof
    thechanceofaoodoccurringandtheconsequencesof
    theoodforpeople,propertyandinfrastructure.
    Itisestimatedthatoodingsofarthisyear(August,2011)
    hascausedAUS$2billiondamagetolocalgovernment
    infrastructureinQueensland,withtotaldamagetopublic
    infrastructurelikelytoreachAUS$6billion.Damagetothe
    Australianeconomyfromooding,inNewSouthWales
    andVictoriawilltopAUS$30billion.Therewere37
    deaths,35inthisstate.Thisshowsthatoodingofsome
    locationsmayhavesignicanteconomicandsocialconse-
    quencesforamuchwiderregion.
    BOX 8.2
    Queensland,Australia,warnedofoodplainrisks
    Source: Hofman (2011).
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 242 CHAPTER8
    abenetcostriskanalysis(orsimplyacostrisk
    analysis),orareliabilityanalysis,dependingonthe
    purposeofthemodellingexercise.Anyriskanalysis
    shouldprovideestimatesofthelevelofcondence
    thataparticularperformancemeasureorcriterionwill
    bemet(Box8.3).
    Informeddecision-makingisincreasinglybecoming
    abottom-upprocess.Whererisksanduncertainties
    prevailtheexpertshavenomonopolyonwhatmight
    happeninthefutureorwhatmightbesustainable.
    Everyonesopinionisneeded,especiallytheimpacted
    stakeholders,whocandeterminethesuccessorfailure
    ofanydecision.Integratedwaterresourcesplanning
    andmanagement(IWRM),bydenition,involvesthe
    participationofallinterestedstakeholders.Interactive
    decision-supportmodelshavebeendevelopedand
    successfullyusedtofacilitatestakeholderparticipation.
    Thepurposeofsuchmodellingtoolsistohelpachieve,
    ifpossible,asharedvisionofhowaparticularwater
    resourcesystemfunctions,andthelikelyimpactofany
    decisionsonsystemperformance.
    8.2.2Strategiesfordealingwithuncertainty
    Theimportanceofreducingthestructuralvulnerabil-
    ityof(water)systemshasgainedincreasingattention
    duringthelastfewyears.Thedevelopmentofwater
    managementstrategiesandinfrastructurewithhigh
    levelsofexibilityorrobustnesswillalmostcer-
    tainlycontributetosystemresilience,includingrecov-
    eriesfromtheunexpected.However,thequestionre-
    mainsofhowtoevaluatetheappropriatenessofsuch
    strategies.Traditionally,thishasbeendonethrough
    riskmanagementonthebasisofhistoricaldataand
    statisticalanalysis,withstrategiesselectedusing,for
    example,acostbenetriskanalysis.Otherdecision-
    supporttoolsarerequiredwhenriskscannotbequan-
    tiedorisolated,asincaseswherethemanyfactors
    describedinChapter1interact.
    Incomplexwatermanagementproblemswherecli-
    mateisafactor,manyyearsordecadesmaypass
    duringwhichunderstandingoftheproblemmayin-
    crease,butsomighttheuncertainty.Thisapplieseven
    moretosocio-economicandbehaviouraluncertainties.
    Therearetwodecision-making/managementstrate-
    giesthatmayhelpinformdecision-makers:
    1.Adaptive strategies: Choosestrategiesthatcanbe
    modiedtoachievebetterperformanceasone
    learnsmoreabouttheissuesathand,andhowthe
    futureisunfolding.Theseadaptivestrategiescan
    beresponsivetonewgoalsorobjectivesofsystem
    performanceaswellaschanginginputsovertime.
    2.Robust strategies: Identifytherangeoffuturecir-
    cumstances,andthenseektoidentifyapproaches
    thatwillworkreasonablywellacrossthatrange.This
    strategyappliesespeciallytodecisionsthatcannot
    easilyorcost-efectivelybemodiedinthefuture.
    Adaptivestrategiesarebasedontheassumption
    thatthefutureimpactsofanydecisiontakennoware
    unknown.Insuchcases,onecouldengageinfurther
    researchtobetterunderstandthepotentialresultsof
    anydecision,andmakeadecisionfollowingsuccess-
    fullycompletionoftheresearch.However,inthein-
    terveningtime,opportunitiesforincreasedeconomic
    andenvironmentalbenetsorreducedcostsordam-
    agesmayhavebeenmissed.Alternatively,adecision
    canbemadenow,basedonthebestjudgmentand
    Riskanalysishasbeenusedandisapplicabletoawiderange
    ofdecisionproblemswithintheUSArmyCorpsofEngineers.
    Riskanalysisisnotonlyforextremeorlow-probabilityevents,
    butalsoforanysituationinwhichthereisarangeofpossibili-
    ties.Ongoingexamplesoftheuseofriskanalysisinclude:
    Lxaminationofeconomicbeneftsofrehabilitationof
    theleveesalongvariousriversandlakes,takingintoac-
    countuncertaintiesofstorms,riverorlakestagesand
    leveeperformances.
    Comparisonofalternativerehabilitationplansforhy-
    dropowergenerators/turbines,makinguseofprobabili-
    tiesoffailureofgeneratorsandturbinesandmainte-
    nanceandrehabilitationcosts.
    Lxaminationofnavigationimprovementplansforpor-
    tionsoftheGulfIntracoastalWaterwaybasedonmini-
    mizingdelaystobargetrafcandincorporatinguncer-
    taintyintowtripsandtraveltime.
    FloodDamageAssessmentsusingasoftwaresystem
    forperforminganintegratedhydrologicalandeco-
    nomicanalysisduringtheformulationandevaluation
    ofooddamagereductionplans.Thisembodiesrisk-
    basedanalysisprocedurestoquantifyuncertaintyin
    discharge-exceedanceprobability,stage-dischargeand
    stage-damagefunctions.Theseapproacheshavebeen
    usedintheLouisville,NewOrleans,Mobile,FortWorth,
    Galveston,Honolulu,KansasCity,LosAngeles,Omaha,
    Portland,SanFrancisco,Savannah,St.Louisand
    St.Pauldistrictsamongothers.
    BOX 8.3
    USCorpsofEngineeringriskanalysis
    Source: Males (2002, pp. 34).
    WWDR4 243 WORKINGUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDMANAGINGRISK
    implemented,suchasforestablishingthecapacity
    ofareservoiroroodcontrolstructureintendedto
    lastalongtime.Arobuststrategycontrastswithan
    optimumdesignstrategy,whoseperformancemay
    degraderapidlyunderdiferentassumptionsregard-
    inginputsandparametervalues.Suchastrategymay
    resultinslightlylessthanoptimalperformanceso
    astoimproveperformanceifunlikelyeventsactually
    happen.
    Incontrasttoarobustdesign,whoseperformancewill
    besatisfactoryunderarangeoffuturepossiblesce-
    narios,aresilient systemisoneinwhichfailureoran
    unsatisfactorystatearequicklyremedied(i.e.thesys-
    temcanrecoverorenterasatisfactorystaterelatively
    quickly).Onedenitionofresiliencyistheprobabil-
    ityofbecomingsatisfactoryoverasetperiodoftime,
    givenanunsatisfactorystate.Aresilientsystemcan
    recoverspeedilyfromafailurestate.Oftendesignand
    operationoptionsareavailabletomakeasystemmore
    robustandresilient,andhencelessvulnerable.
    Risk-adversedecisionsmayoftenreectaminimaxre-
    gretcriterionfordeterminingwhichofmanypossible
    alternativedecisionsisbest.Decidingonthealterna-
    tivethatminimizesthemaximumregret,orriskthat
    couldresultfromthedecision,satisesthiscriterion.
    Consequencesofdecisionsdependonunknownout-
    comes.Forexample,decidingtodrillawatersupply
    wellentailsacostthatwillbewastedifwaterisnot
    present,butwillbringmajorbenetsifitis.
    Additionalinformationrelatedtoadaptiveandro-
    bustpoliciesappliedtothemanagementofwaterand
    aquaticecosystemscanbefoundinBlumenfeldetal.
    (2009);Carpenter,BrockandHanson(1999);Chenet
    al.(2009);Folkesetal(2002),MA(2005);Sanders
    Floodsanddroughtarefundamentalchallengesthrough-
    outSouthAsia,andtheirimpactisheavilyinuencedby
    largerwatermanagementissues.Currentresponsesto
    bothoodsanddroughtaredominatedbyhumanitar-
    ianrelief,withoutconcurrentdevelopmentoflong-term
    adaptivemechanismswithfunctioninginstitutionalsup-
    port.Inthecurrenteraofglobalizationandofglobal
    climatechange,globalandregionalsearchesforefective
    climatechangeresponsestrategiesaretakingplace.
    Efectivesmall-scale,innovativelocalcopingstrategies
    thatareinuencedbyarangeofeconomic,demographic
    andsocialfactorsdoexist,andtheseneedtobegivenat-
    tention,butup-scalingthesetoahigherlevelisdifcult.
    Thelackofinformationowinbothdirectionsisakey
    problem.Despiteanexpandingnetworkinthiseld,few
    havesolideldlevelstrategiesandfewlocalgroupshave
    linkstoregionalandglobaldebates.
    [AnAdaptiveStrategiesprojectwasinitiatedinIndiain
    an]attempttoreconcilediferencesinperceptionsofand
    responsestoextremeweathereventsinthecontextof
    climaticandsocialchange.Theprojectwasdesignedto
    documentandeshoutconceptsandopportunitiesfor
    moreefectiveapproachestowatermanagementand
    oodanddroughtmitigationthroughanintegratedsetof
    studiesinfoureldlocations:twodroughtafectedareas
    inthearidregionsofRajasthanandGujarat(India)and
    twooodafectedareasalongtheRohiniandBagmati
    RiverbasinsacrosstheIndia-Nepalborder.
    Thestudiesidentiedexistingcopingstrategiesofcom-
    munitiesindroughtandoodafectedareasandsug-
    gestedpatternsofsocialandeconomicchangethatinu-
    encethevulnerabilityoflivelihoodstodroughtandood
    conditionsandtheopportunitiesforreducingtherisksof
    damageandhardshipduringsucheventsinthoseareas.
    BOX 8.4
    Adaptivestrategiesforrespondingtodroughtand
    oodinSouthAsia
    Source: Reproduced from ISET (2010).
    knowledgeathand,followedbymonitoringofthe
    resultstoseeifthedecisionwascorrect,orrequires
    furtheradjustmentsinthefuture.Thelatteristermed
    adaptivedecision-making.Monitoringiscriticaltothe
    successofadaptivestrategies.Theyworkbestwhen
    thedecisiontimescalesarewellmatchedtothechang-
    esbeingobserved(Box8.4).
    Alternatively,arobuststrategyperformswellovera
    widerangeoffuturescenarios.Itisespeciallyap-
    propriatewhenadaptivestrategiescannotbeeasily
    Adaptive strategies
    are based on the
    assumption that the
    future impacts of any
    decision taken now are
    unknown.
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 244 CHAPTER8
    andLewis(2003);Stuipetal.(2002);Tallisetal.
    (2008);andLeQuesneandMatthews(2009,2010).
    8.2.3Scenarioanalysis
    Scenariosareanappropriateandtestedapproachfor
    dealingwithuncertaintyformanyreasons:
    Needforalong-termview.Toanalysewaterissues
    inthecontextofsustainabledevelopmentrequiresa
    long-termviewthattakesintoaccounttheslowun-
    foldingofsomeofthehydrologicalandsocialpro-
    cessesinvolved,andallowsforthenecessarytimefor
    waterworksinvestmentstoyieldtheirbenets.
    Highuncertaintyaboutthesystem.Insituations
    whereitisdifculttoassignprobabilitiestopossible
    eventsorfutureoutcomes,forwhateverreason,one
    canstillgeneratepossiblescenariosofwhatcould
    plausiblyhappeninthefuturethatwouldhaveanim-
    pactontheperformanceofthesystembeingplanned,
    designed,oroperated.Eventhoughtheprobability
    ofanycreatedscenarioactuallyhappeningwilllikely
    be0,suchasetofpossiblescenarioshelpsplanners,
    designersandoperatorstolearnhowtheirsystemwill
    likelyperformunderarangeofpossiblefutures.These
    futurescenarioswilltypicallyincludebothuncon-
    trollednaturalevents,aswellashumandecisions.The
    futurebehaviourofpeopleandinstitutionsisasmuch
    apartofascenarioasis,forexample,theclimate.
    Needtoincludenon-quantiablefactors. Tounder-
    standsystemimpactsassociatedwithanyofthegen-
    eratedscenarios,eachscenarioisusuallysimulated
    overtime,andvariousindicatorvaluesarecomput-
    edforeachtimeperiodsimulated.Theseindicators
    willinevitablyincludequalitativeaswellasquantita-
    tivevalues.Bothqualitativeandquantitativesimula-
    tionsmaybeappropriatetocaptureandevaluateas
    bestaspossibletheculturalandpoliticalimpactsthat
    onemightexpectfromtheparticularsystembeing
    considered.
    Needscenariosthatprovideintegration,breadthand
    perspective. Watersystemsservenumerousagri-
    cultural,domesticandindustrialdemands,aswellas
    demandsforin-streamrecreationalaswellasenviron-
    mentalows.Theyareimpactedbychangesinland
    use,humanlifestyles,economicandsocialconditions,
    politicaldecisionsandtheneedforenergy.Scenario
    developmentmustcaptureallofthisinterdepend-
    encyandcomplexityamongsystemcomponents,
    asappropriate.Itmustalsoprovideaperspective
    thatcoverstheinterestsandconcernsofstakehold-
    ersatthelocal,regionalandnationallevels,againas
    appropriate.
    Needtoorganizeunderstandingfordecision-
    making. Theuseofscenariosandassociatedsimula-
    tionmodelsaddressestheneedtosimulatedecision-
    makingandstakeholderparticipation.Ideally,such
    simulationswillbeinteractiveinvolvingpotential
    plannersanddecision-makers,aswellasstakehold-
    ers,makingdecisionsinresponsetoeventstaking
    placeinthesimulations.Alternatively,decisionrules
    canbedenedthatwillservetomakethedecisionsin
    asimulationrun,butitispreferableifthereisinterac-
    tionbetweenthesimulationmodelsandparticipants
    duringthesimulation.Thisallowsmoreattentiontobe
    focusedoncauseandefect,onwhendecisionsneed
    tobemade,andonwhatconstitutesabranchingpoint,
    wherehumanactionscansignicantlyafectthefu-
    ture.Suchsimulationsshouldaimforasharedvisionof
    howasystemmayperform,amongstakeholderswho
    mayholddiferentpointsofviewastohowtheywish
    ittoperform.
    Change,discontinuities,wildcards,potentialsur-
    priseandotheralteredconditions,whoseprobability
    maybeassumedtobeverylow,areoftenignoredand
    omittedeventhoughtheirimpactcouldbegreat(see,
    e.g.,Marien,2002;RahmstorfandGanopolski,1999;
    vanNotten,2005,2006).
    Onewaytomakethisclassofuncertaintiesopera-
    tionalisthroughsurprisescenarios.Diferentmeth-
    odshavebeenproposed,suchashistoricalanalogy
    orsurprisetheory,inwhichunderlyingprinciplesof
    surprisearestudiedsystematicallybythinkingtheun-
    thinkableimaginingunlikelyfutureeventsfollowed
    bytheconstructionofplausiblescenariosthatcould
    beassociatedwiththem.
    8.2.4Backcasting
    Backcastingisanalternativescenarioapproachforthe
    explorationofalternativefutures.Itaimstocircumvent
    thetendencyoftreatingthefutureasanincremental
    continuationofthepast,andtoprovideasmuchin-
    formationaspossibleonfutureuncertainties.Instead
    oftakingthepresentasthestartingpoint,backcast-
    ingstartswiththearticulationofoneormoredesired
    (orevenundesired)futuresandthentriestoidentify
    possibleactionsthatleadtothemandbottlenecksthat
    WWDR4 245 WORKINGUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDMANAGINGRISK
    wouldhinderorpreventreachingthem.Backcastingis
    aniterativeprocessinwhichfuturevisionsandpoli-
    cyinterventionsare(re)adjusted(seealsoFigure8.1).
    Iterationisusuallyrequiredtoresolveinternalincon-
    sistenciesandmitigateadverseeconomic,socialand
    environmentalimpactsthatarerevealedinthecourse
    oftheanalysis.Themainresultsofbackcastingstud-
    iesaregenerallyalternativeimagesofthefuture,
    thoroughlyanalysedintermsoftheirfeasibilityand
    consequences.
    Abackcastingexercisegenerallyfollowsfourdiferent
    steps.Therststepisacreativeprocessofdeninga
    desired(orundesired)future(orfutures).Thenext
    stepworksbackwardsfromthatdenedfutureto
    identifystrategies,measures,policiesandprogrammes
    thatwillconnectthefuturetothepresent.Thiscreative
    phaseisthenfollowedbyanevaluationofassump-
    tionsunderlyingthesefuturesintermsoffeasibility,
    andtheconsequencesofalternativeimagesofthe
    future,reectingontheimplicationsofthelong-term
    perspectiveforshort-termpolicy-making.After
    identifyingpolicyinterventions,actionsandevents
    neededtorealize(oravoidtherealizationof)the(un)
    desiredfuture,theoriginalfuturevisionisgenerally
    adjusted.
    Overtheyears,backcastinghasbeenappliedregularly
    inthedevelopmentofclimate-mitigationstrategies
    (forthereductionofgreenhousegasemissions).For
    watermanagementdiscussions,backcastingisarela-
    tivelynewapproach.TheWorldWaterVisionofthe
    WorldWaterCouncil(CosgroveandRijsberman,2000)
    wasaqualitativebackcastscenariousingelementsof
    threeotherscenarios.Backcastingwasrecentlyused
    todevelopadaptationstrategiestoclimateproofthe
    Netherlands.
    8.2.5Institutionaldecision-makingprinciples
    andparadigms
    Todaydecisionsarebeingmadeunderconditionsof
    riskanduncertaintywheretheprobabilitiesarenon-
    stationary.Theirvaluesareunknownandincapableof
    beingestimatedbasedonthecurrentstateofmodel-
    ling.Thismakestheestimationofrisksofadverseim-
    pactsvirtuallyameaninglessexerciseforthepurposes
    ofwatermanagementandwateruse.Hencewhen
    dealingwithnonstationarities,asubstantiallydifer-
    entwatermanagementapproachseemsappropriate,
    yetonebasedonafoundationofexistingprinciples
    andevaluationtechniques.Thisapproach,essentially
    anadaptationofexistingprovenprinciplesandtech-
    niques,hasbeentermedrobustdecision-making:a
    FIGURE 8.1
    Backcastingversusforecastingscenarios
    Source: van t Klooster et al. (2011).
    Theforecastingscenarioprocess:
    Identicationofdrivers
    Formulationofnarrativestorylines
    Fleshingoutofstorylines
    Identicationofrobustsolutions
    Thebackcastingscenarioprocess:
    Formulationof(un)desirablefuture(s)
    Identicationofpolicyinterventions,actionsandevents
    Evaluationintermsoffeasibility
    Adjustingoriginalfuture(s)
    Present Present Future Future
    Future1
    Future2
    Future3
    Future
    vision
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 246 CHAPTER8
    Amajorquestionforplannersandengineersshouldbe:
    Isthereabetterwaytoplananddesignandoperate
    sustainable,reliable,resilientandnon-vulnerablewater
    resourcessystemsinthefaceofthisnonstationarity?
    Iftheassumptionofstationarityisnolongerjusti-
    ed,areplacementstrategyisneededtomeetplan-
    ninganddesignrequirements.Ifaconsensusisthen
    reachedamongscientistsandengineersonthebest
    replacement,itmustbeacceptedandimplementedin
    governmentwatermanagementagencies.
    Watermanagementagencieswithissuesandpolicy
    mattersneedtoparticipateinthedevelopmentof
    alternatemethodologiesthatincorporatenonsta-
    tionarity,soastomakewaterresourceprojectsmore
    adaptable,sustainableandrobust.Participationinany
    improvedplanninganddesignmethodologythattakes
    intoaccountthenonstationarityofhydrological,as
    wellassocialprocesses,willhelpinitsimplementation
    withintheagencybureaucracy.Thismayentailnew
    legislationandauthorization.
    Itmaybeeasiertoimplementnewmethodologiesinto
    theplanninganddesignofnewprojectsthanintothe
    operatingrulesofexistingprojects,astheseareoften
    speciedbylawandmaybehardertochange.Toen-
    ableoperatingrulestotakeintoaccountnonstationar-
    ity,itmaybenecessarytodeterminewhetherornotto
    developandadoptnewoperationplans.Modelstud-
    iesofpotentialchangesresultingfromnonstationary
    mightsuggesttheneedforincreasedexibility,soas
    toadaptivelymanageoperationstoincreasesystem
    performancewithrespecttovariouscriteria.
    Institutionsinvolvedinimplementinganyplanning
    modelareobligatedtoachievesomelevelofcon-
    sensusonexactlywhatparameterswillbeimpact-
    edbynonstationarity,andwhatrangeofvariation
    canbeexpectedonaregionalbasis.Themethodof
    processdesignedtoaccommodateuncertainscenarios
    withevaluationandprojectjusticationprinciplesthat
    focuslessonoptimaloutcomesandmoreonproduc-
    ingrobustsolutions.
    Planningthedesignandoperationofwaterresources
    infrastructure,whoselifeextendsdecadesintothefu-
    ture,isachallengeforseveralreasons,especiallyifthe
    designcannoteasilyorinexpensivelybechangedonce
    built,suchasareservoir.Onereasonisthechangena-
    tureofhydrology,andtheuncertainnatureofthose
    changes.Whatwillconstitutehydrologyinthenext50
    to100yearsissimplyunknown.Again,wecanguess
    usinghydrologicalscenarios.Itislikelythatthechang-
    esoverthenextdecadeortwowillnotbesignicant,
    whichwillenablehistoricalrecordstobeofassistancein
    predictingfuturescenarios.Anotherreasonisthatthe
    futurebenetsandcostsderivedfromtheinfrastructure
    projectorsystembeingconsideredarenegligiblewhen
    discountedtothepresent,butnotsoforthoseliving
    some50or100yearsfromnow.Clearly,thereisaneed
    forevaluationcriteriathatconsiderthevalueofsustain-
    ablesystemsnowandonintothefuture.Thisneedsto
    beresponsivetotheinterestratesusedinanybenet/
    costanalysis,performedatanytimebyfutureusersof
    thesystem,aswellastothelevelofriskanduncertainty,
    evenifthelattercannotbequantied.(Bardhan,1993;
    Hall,2003;KeenyandRaifa,1993)
    8.2.6Acknowledgingtheneedtoadaptdesign
    procedures
    Thereisnodoubtthatrecentyearshavewitnessed
    changesinlanduse,waterconsumptionandglobal
    climate,whileuncertainfuturechangesandratesof
    changegiverealcauseforconcern.Watermanage-
    mentagenciesshouldbeastroubledbythisasscien-
    tists,andneedtoworktowardsimprovedmethodsof
    assessment,soastobetterincorporatetheuncertainty
    introducedbylackofstationarityinfutureconditions.
    The results from quantitative and qualitative
    analyses, based on science and economic
    principles, are often considered less relevant
    than political factors, emotion, religious beliefs
    and just gut feelings based on intuition.
    WWDR4 247 WORKINGUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDMANAGINGRISK
    implementationmustbeconsistentandreproducible.
    Changesinestablishedproceduresarenevereasyin
    largegovernmentalinstitutions.Considerablestudy
    andcollaborationandcommunicationamongallin-
    terestedstakeholdersshouldbeexpectedbeforea
    changecanbeimplemented.
    Untilconsensusonanewmethodologyisreached,
    agencieswillcontinuetouseexistingprocedures,even
    thoughtheuncertaintyassociatedwiththeseproce-
    duresisincreasedduetopotentialimpactsofchanges
    inclimatevariabilityandlanduse.Inaddition,thereis
    alwayslessriskofbeingcriticizedifestablishedproce-
    duresareused,eveniftheymaybeinferiortoothers.
    Itisunlikelythatwatermanagementagencieswill
    wanttomodifyexistingwatermanagementoperations
    withoutaconvincingargumentthatthereisabetter
    waythatleadstobetterresults,howevermeasured.
    Considerablestudyofalternativemethodsisneeded.
    Theultimatesolutionwillsurelyinvolveamulti-
    disciplinaryapproachtounderstandingthescience
    andthedevelopmentofguidelinesandregulationsthat
    integratestherelevantscienceintowaterresources
    planningapproachesandactivities(Baggettetal.,
    2006;FrederickandMajor,1997;Palmeretal.,2008;
    Wardekkeretal,2008).
    8.2.7Behaviouraldecisiontheory
    Mostimportantreal-worlddecisionproblemsaredeter-
    minedbymorethanonedecision-maker.Decisionsare
    workedoutandimplementedthroughgovernment,pri-
    vatesectorandcivilsocietyorganizations.Theresults
    fromquantitativeandqualitativeanalyses,basedon
    scienceandeconomicprinciples,areoftenconsidered
    lessrelevantthanpoliticalfactors,emotion,religiousbe-
    liefsandjustgutfeelingsbasedonintuition.Oneofthe
    moreimportantaspectsofdecision-makingunderun-
    certaintyconcernstheprocessesbywhichorganization-
    alstructureinuencesthesuccessofanorganizationin
    copingwithuncertainty,andthestrategiestheyadopt
    tomakethemselveslesssusceptibletofailure.
    Thesefactorsarediscussedextensivelywithinthebe-
    haviouraldecisiontheoryorrisk-relateddecision-mak-
    ingliterature.Incontrasttodecisionanalysis,which
    outlineshowdecisionsshouldbemadeinthefaceof
    uncertainty,behaviouraldecisiontheorydescribeshow
    peopleactuallymakedecisionswhennotinuenced
    orsupportedbyanalyticalproceduressuchasdeci-
    sionorbenet-cost-riskanalyses.Itdescribeshow
    rationalandemotionalpartsofthehumanpsychein-
    teractindecision-making(CamererandWeber,1992;
    LoewensteinandCohen,2008;Marrisetal.,1997;Wolt
    andPeterson,2000).
    8.2.8Precautionaryprinciple
    Inthepresenceofuncertainty,manyactionsanddeci-
    sionstakentoachieveincreasedeconomic,environ-
    mentalandsocialbenetswillhaveimpactsthatone
    cannotnowpredict.Actionsmaybeneededtoreduce
    theserisksifthereisachancethatanyoftheseim-
    pactswillbeharmfultopeopleortheenvironmentin
    thefuture,theprecautionaryprincipleplacesonthose
    proposingsuchactionstheburdenofprovingthatthe
    proposeddecisions,includingthoseneededtoprotect
    peopleandtheenvironmentfromfutureharm,willnot
    beharmfultoanyoneoranythinginthefuture.This
    introducesaconditiontobemetbeforesuchdecisions
    canbemadeandplacestheresponsibilityformeet-
    ingthisconditionondecision-makers.Thisprinciple
    comesfromthebeliefthatthereisasocialobligation
    toprotectpeopleandtheirenvironmentfromdam-
    agesthatcouldresultfromanydecisionbeingcon-
    sidered.Followingthisprinciple,decisionstoproceed
    withaprojectorprogrammecanonlybetakenonce
    evidenceisavailablethatnoharm,especiallyirrevers-
    ibleharm,willresult(UNESCO,2005).
    8.2.9Diversication
    Otherstrategiesforenhancingrobustdecision-making
    underuncertaintyacceptthatthefutureisunpredict-
    ableandaimatdevelopingmethodsandmeasures
    thatbuildonexistingknowledge.Themorediversethe
    currentwatersystemis,themoreresilientitshouldbe
    tounexpectedevents.
    Thereareseveralstepsrequiredtodiversifywater
    managementdecisionsandinvestments.Therststep
    istoassesspossibleinterventionsandtheirrelated
    costs.Consider,forexample,asemi-aridareathatis
    largelydependentonwaterforitsmaineconomicac-
    tivity:rainfedagriculture.Astheeconomydependson
    thesuccessofrainfedcrops,thechallengeforawater
    manageristodevelopnewdroughtmitigationmeas-
    ures,suchasincreasingstoragecapacityofsurface
    water,increasinggroundwatercapacity,anddevis-
    ingirrigationschemesforlocalfarmingcommunities.
    Watermanagersinformdecision-makers,whocanalso
    playanactiverolebyintroducingwaterpricingpoli-
    cies,subsidiesorothernancialmechanisms,orby
    decidingonadiferentdevelopmentstrategy,among
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 248 CHAPTER8
    others.Thechoiceofwhichmeasurestoinvestinde-
    pendsonavailablebudget,acceptancebythepublic
    (votersandtaxpayers)andmajorusergroups,and
    geographicalconditions.Thecost-efectivenessof
    eachmeasurewilldependonhowtrendssuchascli-
    matechangeorfutureeconomicconditionsdetermine
    theefectivenessofeachmeasure,andhencethesuc-
    cessofcombinationsofmeasures.
    Investmentdiversicationinanalogywithportfolios
    inthestockmarketcanreducetheriskofthetotal
    portfolioofwatermeasuresifacountrycanaford
    it.Uncorrelated(orpartly-uncorrelated)investments
    inwatermanagementmeasuresthataimtoachieve
    similarreturnscanresultindiferentefectsunderthe
    samefuturetrends.Forexample,investinginsus-
    tainableirrigationmayhaveaprofoundefectonthe
    volumeofwatersaved,butisonlyviableifwaterand
    nancingisavailable.Waterpricingaimsatachieving
    thesamewatersavings,butonlyworksifthepublic
    acceptsit.Athirdinvestmentthatincreasessubsur-
    facewaterstoragecapacitywillprobablyincreasethe
    watersavedthroughthedecreasedefectofevapo-
    ration,butitslong-termsuccessalsodependsonthe
    levelofmaintenancetopreventfailures.
    Thekeyistondmixesofthethreeinvestmentsthat
    willresultnotonlyinthehighestpossiblereturns(cost
    benetanalysis)intermsofwateravailability,butalso
    amixofwatermanagementinvestmentsthatiscapa-
    bleofabsorbingunexpectedevents;inotherwords,
    amixthatvaluesuncertaintyaspartofthedecision-
    makingprocess(BrownandCarriquiry,2007;Figge,
    2004;Johanssonetal.,2002;Perrot-Maitre,2006).
    8.2.10Long-termversusshort-termdecisions
    Dependingonthetimeframeandscopeofanissue
    andthepoliticaltimehorizon,diferentuncertainties
    canhavediferentrelevanciestothedecision-making
    process.Thetimeframeisofcriticalimportancewhen
    lookingatambiguousinformationorirreversibilities.
    Long-termdecisionsareassociatedwithcapitalinvest-
    mentsininfrastructureprojectsthatinvolvesubstan-
    tialxedcosts(coststhatareindependentofthescale
    orcapacityoftheproject),andthatrequirepayment
    beforetheprojectcanbegin.Long-terminvestment
    decisionspertaintoinfrastructuredesignorland-use
    policyexpectedtoexistoveralongperiod.Inmany
    cases,itisdifculttoreversesuchdecisionsonceim-
    plemented.Forexample,decisionstobuildreservoirs
    areeasiertomakethantoreverseoncethereservoirs
    exist.Thechallengeoflong-termdecision-makingisto
    adequatelyconsiderfutureimpactsgiventheuncer-
    taintyoffuturesupplyanddemandconditions.
    Considerdecisionswithrespecttoprotectingfrom
    oodsorreducingooddamage.Thedesignofdykes
    orleviesalongtheMississippiRiverintheUnitedStates
    ofAmericaoralongthecoastoftheNetherlandscon-
    stituteexamplesoflong-termdecisions.Noonecan
    predictthedegreeofprotectionrequiredforthefu-
    ture,evenifsuchanalysesarebasedonpasthydrologi-
    caleventsorfutureprojectionsinuencedbycurrent
    knowledgeofclimatechange.Hence,nomatterwhat
    designischosenthereisariskoffailure.Questionsthat
    plagueanyonemakinglong-termdecisionsinclude
    whatlevelsofriskareacceptable,andjusthowmuch
    moremoney,ifany,shouldbespentondesignsthatre-
    ducethecostsofinfrastructureexpansioninthefuture,
    shouldfutureconditionswarrant.Capacity-expansion
    modelsthatincludefutureuncertaintiescanprovide
    guidanceformakingsuchdecisions,buttheirresults
    arealsouncertain.Comparedtolong-termdecisions,
    short-termdecisionsaremucheasiertomakeastheir
    impactsaremuchmorepredictable.Short-termdeci-
    sionstypicallyinvolvechangesinoperatingpolicies,
    whoseperformancedependsonthelong-termdeci-
    sionsmade.Forexample,theproportionofstorageina
    reservoirthatshouldbeallocatedtooodstorageand
    thevariousbenecialpurposeswaterserves(agricultur-
    al,domesticandindustrialwatersupplies,hydropower,
    recreation,environment)someofwhicharecomple-
    mentary,whileotherscompete.Thesedecisionsmaybe
    inuencedbyrecenthydrologicalandeconomicevents
    orconditions,andinthecaseoffarmers,forecastfuture
    cropmarketprices.
    Aswithlong-termdecisions,short-termdecisions
    madeinuncertainenvironmentsalsoposerisks.But
    unlikemanylong-termrisks,short-termrisksareoften
    moremanageableandreducible.Allthosewhoface
    riskslearntolivewithormanagesuchrisks.Oneap-
    proachtoreduceindividualrisksisthroughinsurance.
    Insuranceisnotalwaysavailable,butwhenitisitcan
    servetoreducetheeconomicconsequencesofood
    events,ordroughtsleadingtocropfailuresorfam-
    ine,ordiseasebroughtonbyexcessivepollution.It
    servesasawaytomitigatetherisksofeconomicloss.
    Theproblemforinsurancecompaniesistodetermine
    theirrisksunderchangingclimateschangesthatare
    themselvesnotpredictable.Indexinsuranceavoidsthe
    needtomakejudgmentsonactuallosses,saydueto
    WWDR4 249 WORKINGUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDMANAGINGRISK
    climatevariabilityorhumanfailureadifculttask
    asindexinsurancepaymentsaremadebasedonanin-
    dependentindicatorormeasurethatiscorrelatedwith
    outcomes,butnotinuencedbytheinsuredindividual
    (BrownandCarriquiry,2007).
    8.2.11Policyuncertainty
    Theoutcomesofanylongtermorshort-termdeci-
    sionsdependinpartonexternalfactors.Onesuchfactor,
    whichcanhaveasignicantinuenceonthesuccessor
    efectivenessofanydecision,isthesetofpoliciesorrules
    andregulationsorlawsestablishedbypublicagencies.
    Changesinbroaderpublicpolicycanhavesubstantial
    consequencesonthepotentialefectivenessofapollu-
    tioncontrolpolicy,orthesuccessofacascadeofhydro-
    powerreservoirsinmeetingenergytargetsorreducing
    damagesresultingfromoods.Thissourceofuncertainty
    canbejustassignicantastheuncertaintyresultingfrom
    naturalevents(CamererandWeber,1992).
    8.2.12Necessityanduncertaintyofmonitoreddata
    AsdiscussedinChapter6ofthisreportandChapter13
    ofWWDR3,thereisarealneedtocommenceglobal,
    systematicmonitoringoftheworldswaterresource
    systemsandland-usepatterns.Manysignalssuggest
    thatclimateischangingtherate,ifnotthenature,of
    hydrologicalprocessestakingplacetodayinmany
    regions.Moreresearchisneededtofullyunderstand
    theseevents,theircausesandthedirectionsandrates
    ofchange.Improvedhydrologicalandclimatemodel-
    linganddownscalingmethodsarebadlyneededby
    waterresourceplannersandmanagers,whoarefacing
    problemsthatoftenneedsolvingatsub-basinscales
    spatialscalesmuchsmallerthanthoseconsideredby
    globalandevenregionalclimatemodels.
    Butinadditiontotheneedformoreresearchonclimate
    modelling,thereisaneedtolearnmorefromthehy-
    drologicaldatarecordedoverthepastcentury.During
    thisperiod,humanshadamajorimpactonlanduse
    anddischargedasignicantquantityofgreenhouse
    gasesintotheatmosphere.GlobalCO
    2
    concentrations
    intheatmosphereincreasedbyabout35%compared
    tolevelsatthebeginningoftheindustrialrevolution.
    Thisincreaseandtheaccompanyingwarmingishighly
    likelytohavehadameasurableimpactonthewater
    cycle,whichshouldbepossibletodetectbystudying
    thehydrologicalrecords.Aswithclimateandlandcover
    changes,thereisaneedtomonitorandbetterunder-
    standhydrologicalchanges(e.g.soilmoisture,frozen
    ground,nutrientdynamics,algaldynamics).Improved
    decision-makingreliesnotonlyonbetterwaysofmod-
    ellingland-water-atmosphericinteractionsandthecli-
    mateanditsimpactsatbasinandwatershedscales,but
    alsocontinuedmonitoringandanalysesofhydrologi-
    calrecords(Murdochetal.,2000;NaimanandTurner,
    2000;Vrsmartyetal.,2000).
    Monitoringandmeasuringaretheonlywaystode-
    terminethenatureofchangesoccurringinthewa-
    tersheds.Thisinvolveskeepingrecords,decadeafter
    decade,andanalysingthoserecords.Thefactthat
    theprobabilitydistributionsofwaterows,storage
    volumesandtheirqualitiesandusesoverspaceand
    time,arenon-stationaryincreasestheimportanceof
    continuedmonitoring,datamanagementandanalyses.
    Informeddecision-makingdependsonobservations
    ofthesystemsbeingmanaged,understandingwhat
    thoseobservationsaretellingus,andactingonthis
    knowledgecontinuously.
    8.3Usingecosystemstomanage
    uncertaintyandrisk
    Historyshowsthatpressuresonwaterresourcesde-
    creaseecosystemresilienceandtherebyincrease
    ecosystem-relatedrisksanduncertaintiesreduc-
    ingthosepressuresreducesthisriskanduncertain-
    ty.Ecosystemscanservetoreduceuncertainty,help
    managerisk,andachieveincreasedbenetsfrom
    watersecurityandwaterqualityenhancement,recrea-
    tion,hydropower,navigation,wildlifeandoodcontrol.
    Ecosystemsincludeallthecomponentsinvolvedinthe
    watercycle,includinglandcover(vegetation)andsoil
    functionsinwatersheds,wetlandsandoodplains.
    Ecosystemsareusedwidelyandhavedemonstrated
    theirutility,particularlyinreducinguncertaintyassoci-
    atedwithwaterquality,waterextremes(droughtand
    oods)andstorage-relatedneeds.Hardengineering
    approaches(seeChapter5)havesuccessfullyreduced
    Unlike many long-
    term risks, short-term
    risks are often more
    manageable and
    reducible.
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 250
    BOX 8.5
    Changingparadigmsforwatermanagement
    CHAPTER8
    risksinrichnations,butatconsiderablecapitaland
    maintenance(andsometimesenvironmental)cost.
    Notalldevelopingcountrieshavethenancialcapital
    toadoptthesamestrategy.Butasrisksorpriorities
    change(e.g.throughclimatechangeorurbanexpan-
    sion),physicalinfrastructurecanbedifcultandcer-
    tainlyexpensivetomodifyorremove.Thiscanlimit
    adaptationoptionsunderchangingconditions,and
    therebyincreasesrisk.Theuseofbuiltandnaturalin-
    frastructureoptionsshouldbeconsideredtogetherin
    ordertomanagemediumtolong-termrisk.
    Historyalsoshowsthatmanyrisksassociatedwithwa-
    terarisethroughmanagementthatisblindtotheeco-
    systemchangesitdrives,andtheirconsequencesfor
    humans.Ecosystemsarecentraltosustainingthewa-
    tercycle,therefore,understandingthisroleprovidesa
    tooltoassesshowrisksaregeneratedandtransferred.
    Aninclusive,holisticandparticipatoryapproachto
    waterpolicyandmanagementpermitsidentica-
    tionofthefullrangeofecosystemservicesinvolved,
    wheretherisksare,whoisvulnerabletothemandwhy.
    Improvedinformationcanreduce,butnevereliminate,
    uncertainty.Anewparadigmisrequiredandisalready
    emerging(asindicatedinSection2.5),whichshifts
    fromregardingtheecosystem(environment)asanun-
    fortunatebutnecessarycostofdevelopmenttobeing
    anintegralpartofdevelopmentsolutions(Box8.5).
    Reducingthedirecthumandemandforwaterwillalso
    reducepressuresonwater,andtherebyincreasethe
    sustainabilityofecosystems,thedeliveryofecosystem
    benets,andthereforereducerisk.Othersectionsof
    thisreportaddressopportunitiestoreducewaterfoot-
    prints,includingimprovingwateruseefciency.Atthe
    implementationlevel,watermanagersmaybecalled
    upontoactivelymanagevariouselementsoftheeco-
    systemand/ortoinformthosewhohavethatrespon-
    sibility.Identifyingopportunitiestoproactivelyman-
    ageecosystemstoreduceuncertaintyandmanagerisk
    involvesathree-stepprocess:
    1.Identifythewatermanagementobjectivesasop-
    posedtofocusingoninfrastructure(e.g.objectives
    arewaterstorageorcleanwater,notdamsortreat-
    mentplants).
    2.Explorewhatecosystemsoferintermsofmeeting
    theidentiedmanagementobjective(s)(e.g.storing
    water,reducingpollution),includingthroughtheir
    conservationand/orrestoration.
    3.Reducetheuncertaintiesandrisksinvolvedindeci-
    sionsbyconsideringallecosystemservicesdirectly
    involvedorpotentiallyimpactedbyvariousman-
    agementoptions.Thisincludesvaluingmultipleco-
    benets,andexaminingtrade-ofsbetweenthemto
    determinedesirablecoursesofaction.
    Traditionalapproacheswereawarethatwa-
    termanagementimpactedecosystems,but
    proceededontheassumptionthatwateruse
    (forhumans)wasmoreimportantthanthe
    ecosystem(environment).Thevaluesofthe
    fullsuiteofbenets(services)providedby
    theecosystemwerethereforenotincluded
    indecision-making.Theresultisincreased
    overallriskwiththeecosystemanditsneeds
    perceivedasinconictwithhumanneeds.
    Inthenewparadigmecosystemsareman-
    aged(togetherwithbuiltinfrastructure)to
    achieveawatermanagementgoalofdelivery
    ofthefullsuiteofrequiredecosystemser-
    vices(includingwaterquantityandquality),
    therebyreducingoverallsystemrisks.The
    ecosystemisseennotasaproblem,butasa
    solution.
    Oldapproaches
    Newparadigm
    Ecosystems/
    biodiversity
    (unfortunatebuta
    necessarycost;inreality
    increasesrisks)
    Watermanagementgoals
    Managementgoals
    impacts
    Watermanagement
    wateruseandbuilt
    infrastructure
    Watermanagement
    Ecosystems/
    biodiversity
    andbuiltinfrastructure
    Ecosystems
    services
    (reducedrisk)
    sustains
    manages
    Waterfordirect
    humanuse
    Otherecosystems
    services
    underpinned
    bywater
    WWDR4 251 WORKINGUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDMANAGINGRISK
    Ecosystem-basedapproachesharnessthecapacityof
    ecosystemsaswaterinfrastructuretoimproveresilience
    anddelivermultiplewater-relatedbenetsmoresus-
    tainablyandoftencost-efectively,therebyaddressing
    risk.Thetermecosystem(ornatural)infrastructure
    (seediscussioninSection5.1concerningsoftinfrastruc-
    ture)reectsanacknowledgementthatthewater-re-
    latedservicesprovidedbyecosystemsareanalogous
    andcomplementarytothoseprovidedbyconventional,
    engineeredwaterinfrastructure.Capitalandoperating
    costsofphysicalinfrastructureshouldreectthecosts
    oflostecosystemservices.Forexample,thecostsof
    drinkingwatertreatmentreectthiscostofecosystem
    degradation(lossofcleanwaterasanecosystemser-
    vice).Thereisacompellingcostbenetcaseforpublic
    and/orprivateinvestmentingreeninfrastructure,inpart
    becauseofitssignicantpotentialasameansofadap-
    tationtoclimatechange(TEEB,2009).
    Theglobalconsequencesofheavyrelianceonhard-en-
    gineeringsolutionsarebeginningtobebetterunder-
    stoodinriskmanagementterms.Forexample,Batker
    etal.(2010)presentaconvincingcasestudyofthe
    MississippiDelta,whereecosystemrestorationoptions
    ofersignicanteconomicgainstoaddresstheprob-
    lemofriskincreaseinthedelta,inparticulardisaster
    riskbroughtaboutbyhistoricalhard-engineeredwater
    Vrsmartyetal.(2010)havepresentedhumanwaterse-
    curityandbiodiversityperspectiveswithinthesamespa-
    tialaccountingframework.Theyuseddatadepicting23
    stressors(drivers),groupedintofourmajorthemesrep-
    resentingenvironmentalimpact:catchmentdisturbance,
    pollution,waterresourcedevelopmentandbioticfactors.
    Theresultsshowthatnearly80%oftheworldspopula-
    tionisexposedtohighlevelsofthreattowatersecurity,
    basedonyear-2000gures,implyingamuchgreater
    levelofriskthanindicatedbypreviousassessments.
    Developingcountries,inparticular,needtoreducewater
    risk.Inadditiontohardengineeringsolutionsaswellas
    whenalackofadequatelevelsofnancialresourcesim-
    pedesappropriateinfrastructuredevelopment,asensible
    optionistoemployecosystem-basedsolutions,wher-
    everpossible.Thisalsoreducesmedium-termrisksand
    minimizesthepossibleneedtoeventuallydismantlemuch
    ofthephysicalinfrastructureusedtoachievesustainable
    balancedoutcomes,oncewealthy.
    Theuseofnaturalinfrastructuretoprotectwatersupplies,
    particularlydrinkingwaterforcities,isalreadywide-
    spread.Forexample,theWaterProducerProgramme,de-
    velopedbytheBrazilianNationalWaterAgency,provides
    compensationtofarmerstosafeguardcriticalheadwaters
    thatsupplywaterto9millionpeopleintheSoPaulo
    metropolitanregion.Successhasspawnedsimilarap-
    proachesinotherregionsofBrazil(NatureConservancy,
    2010).Likewise,thepramograsslandofChingaza
    NationalPark,intheColombianAndes,playsacrucial
    roleinmaintainingwatersuppliesfor8millionpeoplein
    thecapitalcity,Bogot,Colombia.Aninnovativepub-
    lic/privatepartnershiphassetupanenvironmentaltrust
    fundthroughwhichpaymentsfromthewatercompany
    aretransferredformanagingthepramosustainably,po-
    tentiallysavingthewatercompanyaroundUS$4million
    peryear(Forslundetal.,2009).Box21.5inChapter21
    describeshowthepotentialforcontaminationbydifuse
    orpoint-sourcepollution,whichrepresentedaserious
    commercialrisktobottledwaterproduction,wasdealt
    withbyNestlS.A.,France.Akeymechanismforimple-
    mentingtheseapproachesispaymentsforecosystemser-
    viceschemes,wherebytheusersofaservice(e.g.clean
    water)payotherstosustainitsdelivery.In2006,the
    ConventionontheProtectionandUseofTransboundary
    WatercoursesandInternationalLakesadoptedrecom-
    mendationsonpaymentsforecosystemservices(PES)as
    apartofintegratedwaterresourcemanagement(IWRM)
    (UNECE,2007).
    BOX 8.6
    Rethinkingphysicalinfrastructureapproaches
    BOX 8.7
    Ecosystemsolutionsforwaterqualityrisks
    managementapproaches(seeBox2.3inSection2.5).
    Thepolicyofwholesalehard(physical)engineering
    approachestowaterriskreductionhasbeendebated
    betweenandamongengineersandenvironmentalists
    foratleasttwodecades.Thisdiscussionisincreasingly
    subjecttomorerigorousscienceenablingtheemer-
    genceofalessemotive,moreimpartialandbalanced
    strategytowardsrisk(Box8.6).
    Demonstrationsofthepitfallsofecosystem-blindap-
    proachesmakeforaconvincingcaseinthemselves.
    Butecosystemsolutionsfordealingwithuncertainty
    andriskarebestdemonstratedthroughpractice,and
    thereiscurrentlyawholesaleshifttowardsthisap-
    proach.Somestakeholdersinthebusinesssector
    areleadingbyexample(Box8.7).Forexample,the
    WorldResourcesInstitute(WRI),workinginconjunc-
    tionwiththeWorldBusinessCouncilforSustainable
    Development(WBCSD),hasdevelopedtheCorporate
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 252 CHAPTER8
    EcosystemServicesReview,whichhelpscompaniesto
    identifyandmeasuretherisksandopportunitiesaris-
    ingfromtheirimpactanddependenceonecosystem
    services(WRI,MeridianInstituteandWBCSD,2008),
    withinwhichwaterplaysaprominentrole.WBCSD
    (2011)alsomakesthecaseforecosystemvaluationas
    anintegralpartofbusinessplanningandcorporate
    decision-making.Thereisaneedtoupscalesuchap-
    proachesacrossallrelevantbusinessactivities.
    Theuseorrestorationofecosysteminfrastruc-
    turetosustainorimprovewaterqualityisalreadya
    widespreadpracticewithaproventrackrecord
    (Box8.7).Usingecosysteminfrastructuretomanage
    risksassociatedwithoodingisanotherareainwhich
    interest,practiceanddemonstratedfeasibilityare
    rapidlydeveloping.Floodmanagementalsodemon-
    stratesclearlythatwatermanagementinvolvesrisk
    transfer(Box8.8).
    Anotherrelevantexampleisthesuccessfulexperience
    oftheWaterProtectionFund(FONAG)inEcuador,
    whichisawatertrustfundcreatedtoprotectthewa-
    tershedsthatsupplywatertotheMetropolitanDistrict
    Catastrophicoodingisemergingasoneofthemostsignicantsourcesofincreasingvulnerabilityduetothreemainfactors:
    increasinghumanpopulationsandinfrastructuredevelopmentinhighoodriskareas(particularlymegacitiesindeveloping
    countries);lossofwetlandsservicesthatregulatewaterows;andmostprobablytheincreasingfrequencyandseverityof
    extremeweathereventsunderclimatechange.
    Mostmodernoodmanagementplansnowincludetheuseofoodplainsandwetlands.Keyservicesoftheselandsinclude
    theirabilitytorapidlyabsorbandslowlyrelease(regulate)water,andtoincreaseecosystemsresiliencebyregulatingsedi-
    menttransfer.Theseservicesaloneaccountforsomeofthehighestland/naturevaluesthusfarcalculated,forexample,
    US$33,000perhaofwetlandsforhurricaneriskreductionintheUnitedStatesofAmerica(Costanzaetal.2008).
    Potentialdamagefromstorms,coastalandinlandoodingandlandslidescanbeconsiderablyreducedbyacombination
    ofcarefulland-useplanningandmaintaining/restoringecosystemstoenhancebuferingcapacity.Forexample,aVietNam
    report(Tallisetal.,2008)showsthatplantingandprotectingnearly12,000haofmangrovescostUS$1.1million,butsaved
    annualexpendituresondykemaintenanceofUS$7.3million.Similarly,accordingtoEmertonandKekulandala(2003),the
    MuthurajawelaMarsh,acoastalwetlandinadenselypopulatedareainNorthSriLanka,providesseveralmorevisibleecosys-
    temservices(agriculture,shingandrewood),whichdirectlycontributetolocalincomes(totalvalue:US$150perhaand
    peryear),butthemostsubstantialbenets,whichaccruetoawiderpopulationarerelatedtooodattenuation(US$1,907
    perha)andindustrialanddomesticwastewatertreatment(US$654perha).
    However,theeconomicargumentsfornaturalinfrastructurearenotalwaysclear-cut.InthecaseoftheMapleRiver
    Watershed,US,ShultzandLeitch(2001)statedthatecosystemrestorationdeliveredinsufcientriskreduction.
    Chinarunsoneofthelargestpaymentsforecosystemservicesschemesworldwide:theGrain-to-GreensProgrammetotackle
    soilerosion.Soilerosionisbelievedtobeaprincipalcauseoftheextremeoodingthattookplacein1998.Plantingtreesor
    maintainingpasturehasrestored9millionhaofcroplandonsteepslopes.Inadditiontooodriskreduction,co-benetsin-
    cludewildlifeconservation,includingpositiveimpactsonGiantPandahabitats(Chenetal.,2009).
    Managedrisktransfercanbeasolutiontooverallriskmanagement.Forexample,Londonisveryvulnerabletoooding,and
    itsphysicaloodprotectioninfrastructureisageingrapidly.Butoodriskmanagersarenowcommittedtocreatingspace
    foroodwaterwherepossiblethroughriverrestorationactivities,forexample,theLondonRiversActionPlan(RRC,2009).
    Dykeshavehistoricallybeenusedintheuppercatchmenttoprotectagriculture,whichhasinefectdivertedwatermore
    quicklytowardsLondon,increasingrisksthere.Basedontheunsurprisingfactthatcrops,livestockandagricultureinfra-
    structurearelessvaluablethannationalmonuments,majornancialcentresandhigh-pricedhousing,andthehighpopula-
    tiondensitiesthere,partoftheoodmanagementstrategynowincludesremovingdykes,therebyrestoringwetlands,and
    compensatingfarmersfortheirincreasedrisks.Massiveinfrastructuremaintenancecostsandoodinsurancepremiumsfor
    cityinhabitantsarereducedintheprocess.Agriculturalproductivityisnotsignicantlyafected,andindeedcouldincrease,
    exceptduringtheoccasionalextremeoodprovidingevidencethatrestoringoodplainsdoesnotnecessarilyresultinsig-
    nicantlossesinlonger-termagriculturaloutput.Theissueisclearlyoneofrisk,notproductivity,andthesolutionistocom-
    pensatewhereincreasedriskexposureoccurs,therebyincreasingoverallbenets.
    BOX 8.8
    Ecosystemsandoodriskreduction
    WWDR4 253 WORKINGUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDMANAGINGRISK
    ofQuitoandsurroundingareas,seekingtoensure
    themedium-andlong-termavailabilityofwater
    (Box8.9).FONAGsachievementshaveledtothe
    creationofsimilarfundsinotherareasofEcuador
    (Ambato,Riobamba,Cuenca,LojaandEspndola)and
    elsewhere(ColombiaandPeru)(Lloret,2009).
    Water-relatedecosysteminfrastructureinvolvesall
    biological/ecologicalcomponentsofthewatercycle,
    andisnotlimitedtomanagingsurfaceandgroundwa-
    terwateravailabilityandquality.Examplesoftherole
    offorestsinsustainingregionalwaterbalance,includ-
    ingavoidingtippingpoints,areprovidedinChapter
    4,Section4.3.Theroleoflandcover(vegetation)and
    soilsinreducinghydrologicalriskillustratestheneed
    torethinkwaterstorageinecosystemterms(Box8.10).
    Increasinguncertaintyinwatermanagementisthere-
    sultoflessthanoptimalunderstandingofecosystem
    functionsandtheirimpactsonecosystemservicesin
    conjunctionwithseriousgapsindataandmonitoring.
    Thehistoricalfocusofnature/environmentinterests
    andscienceonconservationhascontributedtothis
    uncertainty.Theobjectiveisimportantinitselfbutthe
    inuenceofconservationinterestsonwaterpolicy
    1hefnancialresourcesofFONACareprovidedbydi-
    rectusersofwater,partofwhosepaymentsgoesto-
    wardstheprotectionofwatersources.Thetrustfundis
    fedbylocallygeneratedfundsandisnotdependenton
    foreignorgovernmentcapital.
    Civentheweakgovernanceofnaturalresourcespar-
    ticularlywater,theavailabilityoflong-termnancial
    instrumentsisaguaranteethatinterventionsandpro-
    grammestoprotectwaterresourcesaresustainable.
    1hegreatestimpactisachievedbysustainedandlong
    termprogrammes;thusatrustfundrepresentsawayof
    achievinghigh-impactintervention.
    CiventhattheFundsplansaredevelopedinapartici-
    pativeway,theyarealwaysviewedascomplementary
    tonancing,resultinginthestrongengagementofac-
    torswiththeactionsbeingtaken.
    1herulesoftheFundclearlyspecifythedestinationof
    investmentsandthemaximumamountsthatcanbeas-
    signedtoadministration,currentspendingandother
    expenses,thussafeguardingthequantityandqualityof
    investments.
    BOX 8.9
    Lessonslearnedintheimplementationand
    operationoftheWaterProtectionFund(FONAG,
    Ecuador)
    Source: Lloret (2009, p. 6, Lessons Learned, with minor
    modication).
    Soilmoistureisamajorcomponentofthewatercycle.It
    contributestogroundwaterandmaintainssurfacevegeta-
    tionandsoilhealth.Soilecosystemsarebiodiversityrich
    andsupportimportantandinter-dependentecosystem
    services,includingnutrientcycling,carbonstorage,ero-
    sionregulation,watercyclingandpuricationandinpar-
    ticularallagriculturalproduction.
    Lossofwaterdegradessoilanddrivesdesertication
    (seeSection4.5andtheCARonDesertication,Land
    DegradationandDrought).Apartfromchangingrainfall
    patterns,themajorcauseofsoildegradationisland-use
    practice,inparticularsoildisturbance(excessivetill-
    age),pollutionandlossoflandcover(vegetation).Loss
    ofsoilmoistureisamajorriskchallengeforagriculture
    andrestoringwaterretentioninsoilsisakeytosustain-
    ableagriculture.TheComprehensiveAssessmentofWater
    ManagementinAgriculture(ComprehensiveAssessmentof
    WaterManagementinAgriculture,2007)concludedthat
    improvingrainfedagriculture,includingrehabilitatingde-
    gradedlands,isamajoropportunitytoincreaseagricultural
    productionandachieveglobalfoodsecurity.Thisissueis
    largelyaboutmanagingmoistureinsoilecosystems.
    Conservationagricultureaddressessoilwaterriskswith
    threeprinciples:minimalsoildisturbance,permanent
    soilcoverandcroprotation.Agriculturalbenetsinclude
    organicmatterincrease,in-soilwaterconservationand
    improvementofsoilstructure,andthustherootingzone.
    Otherenhancedecosystemservicesincluderegulated
    soilerosion(reducingroad,damandhydroelectricpower
    plantmaintenancecosts),waterquality,airquality,carbon
    sequestration,biodiversity/naturebenets,andregu-
    latedwateravailability(includingood-riskreduction).
    Conservationagricultureholdstremendouspotentialfor
    allsizesoffarms,agro-ecologicalsystemsandzones.
    Usingecosystem-basedmanagement,itdeliversprot-
    ableandsustainableagriculturalproductionandgreatly
    improvedenvironmentalbenets,includingood-risk
    reductionandregulatedsoilerosion.Theapproachisbe-
    ingadoptedonalargescale,forexample,inBraziland
    Canada.Itisalsowidelyusedtoaddresswaterrisksfor
    foodsecurityindrylandareaswhereitsmultiplebenets
    ofersignicantadvantagesoverhighriskandcapital-in-
    tensiveirrigationoptions.
    BOX 8.10
    Rethinkingwaterstorage:Restoringsoil
    functionality
    For further reading on conservation agriculture see the FAO
    website: http://www.fao.org/ag/ca/index.html.
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 254 CHAPTER8
    (andhenceinturnonnatureconservation)iserrat-
    icandlimitedinareaswheredevelopmentpriorities
    dominate,especiallywherewaterresourcesarelim-
    ited.Thepasttwodecadeshave,however,broughta
    visibleandwelcomeshifttowardsnatureconservation
    interests,proposingsolutionstowaterproblems.Most
    major,internationalnature-basedNGOs,forexam-
    ple,nowseenatureinabroaderdevelopmentcon-
    text.Thisisparticularlysoforbiodiversity,whichasa
    topichasgravitatedtowardsthecentralroleitplays
    indeliveringecosystemservices.Butthescienceas-
    sociatedwiththisshiftislagging.Trendsinspecies,
    populationsandhabitatsremainthecornerstoneof
    biodiversitymonitoring,althoughtheyareincreasing-
    lyusedasproxiesforecosystemchange.Limiteddata
    availabilityfortheconditionandextentofwetlands
    continuestoconstrainscienceanimportantgap
    consideringtheirhydrologicalfunctions.Advances
    havebeenmadeinthemonitoringofdesertication
    (aprocessdrivenprincipallybywateravailability)and
    itsimpactsondesertecosystemservicesandthewell-
    beingofafectedcommunities(e.g.UNCCD,2011),
    butwaterqualitydataremainpatchyatbest.Butthe
    biggestgapininformationrelatestothecontinuing
    difcultiesencounteredindirectmonitoringofmany
    relevantecosystemservices.Themostadvancedeco-
    systemservicemonitoringareasremainconnedto
    thedirectbenetspeoplereceive,suchasfoodand
    hydropower.Signicantgapsexistinotherkeyser-
    vices,inparticularnutrientcycling,sedimenttransfer
    anddeposition(landformation,coastalerosionregu-
    lation),waterregulation(includingtheroleofevap-
    otranspiration),andthecapacitytoteaseouteco-
    systeminuenceswithindataontheeconomicand
    humanimpactsofwater-relateddisasters(drought
    andoodmitigationservices).Attemptstomakethe
    relevantconnectionsbetweenwater,ecosystemsand
    peopleareimproving,butitremainsessentiallya
    processofstorylinebuilding,basedoncasestudies
    andlimitedglobaldata.Theimportanceofthetopic
    meritsbetterresourcestounderpinthemonitoring
    andimproveunderstanding,andtoreducethecurrent
    over-dependencyoncomplicated,andoccasionally
    controversial,science.
    Onecharacteristicofecosysteminfrastructuresolu-
    tionsisthattheyoferlessopportunityforcorrup-
    tion.Intheharshrealitiesofwatermanagement,thisis
    likelyamajorreasonwhytheyhavenotbeenadopt-
    edmorewidely.Buttheyareincreasinglybecoming
    partofthewatermanagementdialogue.Practitioners
    needtostrengthen,inparticular,therigouroftheir
    economicassessments.Promotingecosysteminfra-
    structureasapanaceaformanagingallwaterrisks
    mustbeavoided.Itisbestplacedamongasuiteofop-
    tions(includinghard-engineeredsolutions)toaddress
    riskonacase-by-casebasis,thenassessedthrough
    transparentandparticipatorymeans,wherebetterin-
    formationreducesuncertainty.Suchanapproachwill
    enablethemostcost-efective,holisticandsustain-
    ableriskmanagementstrategiestoemerge.Current
    evidencesuggeststhatundertheseconditionsecosys-
    tem-basedapproacheswillincreasinglybecomethe
    foundationofwatersecurity.

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    CHAPTER 9
    Understanding uncertainty
    and risks associated with key drivers
    Shutterstock/ThorJorgenUdvang

    Authors CatherineCosgrove, WilliamJ.Cosgrove,ErumHassanandJoanaTalafr


    Contributors RichardConnorandGilbertoGallopn

    Managing water is managing risks old and new. Water management has always included
    managing risk and a signicant body of knowledge exists about the management of the
    water cycle and its physical processes. Water management is also a cross-sectoral activity in
    which water managers are responsible for meeting the requirements of diferent economic
    sectors and the environment while caring for equity issues. This is not an easy task. The
    water system is dynamic and is characterized by large spatial and temporal variability in
    precipitation and runof, with water-related risks such as oods and droughts. The allocation
    frameworks that regulate the distribution of water among diferent uses do not always reect
    physical realities including the inherent variability in resource availability. Moreover, dynamics
    within sectors often create new and unexpected demands on water resources, increasing
    stress on its capacity to supply water for society and the environment.
    The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP) is currently undertaking
    a project to develop potential scenarios for the worlds water resources and their use up
    to 2050. The last global water scenarios were published over ten years ago (Cosgrove and
    Rijsberman, 2000), and although they took into account most uncertainties and risks known
    at that time, they did not consider climate change. Furthermore, demography, technology,
    politics, societal values, governance and law are demonstrating accelerating trends or
    disruptions. Linkages are being made with other scenario processes being undertaken at the
    global level, such as new global environment scenarios (Global Environment Outlook 4) and
    the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios on climate change.
    This chapter reects ndings to date.
    1

    WWDR4 261 UNDERSTANDINGUNCERTAINTYANDRISKSASSOCIATEDWITHKEYDRIVERS
    9.1Possibleevolutionofkeydrivers
    Traditionally,analysisofpastclimatecoupledwith
    stochasticanalysishasprovidedafairlyreliablebasis
    forexaminingthewatercyclewithitshydrological
    extremes.Historicalclimaticandhydrologicalinforma-
    tionoftenformsthestartingpointforwatermanagers
    andextrapolationsofthepastareroutinelyconduct-
    edinordertosimulatefuturehydrologicalconditions.
    However,projectedpressuresonwaterresourceslie
    outsidethecontrolofwatermanagers.Thesecansig-
    nicantlyafectthebalancebetweenwaterdemand
    andsupplysometimesinuncertainwaysandthus
    createnewrisksforwatermanagersandusers.Such
    increasinguncertaintiesandrisksnecessitateadifer-
    entapproachtowatermanagementstrategies.
    TherstphaseoftheWWAPWorldWaterScenarios
    Projecthasundertakenresearchontendriversof
    change.Therelevanceofeachofthesedriversvaries
    indiferentregionsoftheworld.
    Waterstressandsustainabilityarefunctionsofthe
    availablewaterresourcesandtheirwithdrawaland
    consumption.Bothresourcesandconsumptionare
    variablesthatdependonmanyfactors.Driversthat
    directlyimpingeuponwaterstressandsustainability
    aretheecosystem,agriculture,infrastructure,technol-
    ogy,demographicsandeconomy.Theultimatedriv-
    ers,governance, politics, ethics andsociety(valuesand
    equity),climate changeandsecurityexerttheirefect
    mostlythroughtheirimpactsupontheproximatedriv-
    ers.Expertsineachoftheeldscoveredbythedriv-
    erswereaskedtoreadoneofthetenresearchreports
    andgivetheirviewsaboutthefuturedevelopments
    thatwereidentied.Someparticipatedinanexercise
    wheretheywereaskedtoidentifytherelativeimpor-
    tanceofthedevelopmentsandwhenitwaslikelythey
    wouldoccur.Otherscompletedasurveyinwhichthey
    indicatedwhichdevelopmentsweremorelikelytooc-
    cur,andwhen.Thefollowingtexthighlightsdevelop-
    mentsconsideredmostimportantorlikelytooccur.
    9.1.1Waterresources:Surfacewater,groundwaterand
    ecosystems
    Anystudyofstrategy,planning,design,operationand
    managementofwaterresourcessystemsmusttake
    asitsbasisvariabilityofquantityandqualityinwater
    sourcesandsupplysystems.Thenewdimensionthat
    nowmustbeconsideredistheimportanceofthese
    possiblevariablesandtheuncertaintyofthelimitsof
    theirvariability.
    ExpertsurveyparticipantsintheWWAPWorldWater
    ScenariosProjectrankedincreasesinwaterproductiv-
    ityinagricultureasthemost importantdevelopment
    afectingwater.Waterproductivityforfoodproduc-
    tionincreasedbynearly100%between1961and2001.
    Participantsestimatedthatitwouldlikelyincrease
    another100%by2040.Theyfurtherestimatedthat
    rainfedagriculturegloballywilllikelyyieldanaverage
    of3.5tonnesperhaofgrainbyaround2040.
    Thesecond most important developmentafect-
    ingwaterwasthepercentageoflandareasubjectto
    droughts.Theparticipantsestimatedthatthiscould
    increasebyatleast50%forextremeevents,40%for
    severedroughtsand30%formoderateonesbythe
    2040s.
    2
    Wateravailabilityissueswereamongthemost
    likelydevelopmentstooccurbefore2050.
    Theparticipantsconsideredglobalwaterwithdraw-
    alslikelytoincreaseby50%from2000levelsbefore
    2020,withaprobable10%reductioninannualmean
    streamowsby2030inmostofthepopulatedareas
    oftheworld.Bythebeginningofthe2030s,ground-
    waterrechargeratescouldbereducedby20%inareas
    alreadysuferingfromwaterstressin2010.Thepartici-
    pantsfurtherconsideredthatglobalagriculturaltrade
    by2020couldcontainthevirtualwaterequivalentto
    20%ofthetotalwaterwithdrawngloballyforfood
    production.
    Solutionsforthemonitoringandmanagementofwa-
    teravailabilitywereseenasunlikelytooccurinthe
    shortterm.Conjunctivegroundwaterandsurfacewa-
    termanagementwereseenasunlikelytooccuralmost
    everywherebeforethe2040s.Thiswasalsothecase
    formanagementofwithdrawalsfromaquiferstoen-
    suretheydonotexceedthemeanrechargeratesof
    thepreviousdecade.
    TheparticipantspredictedthatthePacicDecadal,El
    Nio-SouthernandNorthAtlanticOscillationswould
    likelybeunderstoodbythe2020s,andhenceincluded
    inclimateforecastingmodels.Recognitionofthecon-
    textofnon-stationaryclimatesandhydrologicaland
    anthropogenicforcinginallwatermanagementplan-
    ningandoperationswasseenaslikelytofollowatthe
    beginningofthe2030s.
    Desalinationwasnotviewedasalikelysolutiontowa-
    teravailabilitybeforetheendofthe2040s.Itwascon-
    sideredlikelythatdesalinationcouldproduce25%of
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 262 CHAPTER9
    thedrinkingwaterforcitiesbytheendofthe2040s,
    and5%ofwaterusedforfoodproductionbythemid-
    dleofthecentury.Theslowadoptionrateofdesali-
    nationtechnologieswasalsoreectedinresponses
    totheconsultationsonAgriculture,Economyand
    Technology.
    Thelossofspeciesdiversitywasviewedasbothim-
    portantandlikelytooccurbythebeginningofthe
    2030s.Diversityoffreshwaterbiologicalspeciescould
    besignicantlyreducedasearlyasthebeginning
    ofthe2020s,andwasseenaslikelyby2030dueto
    highertemperatures,reducedows,atmosphericcar-
    bondioxideandincreasednitrogencausedbyclimate
    change.Organismswithstrongadaptivecapacityto
    extremeenvironmentalvariabilitycouldalsoincreas-
    inglydominateecosystemsbythebeginningofthat
    decade.Theimplementationofappropriatecounter-
    measurestolimitbiodiversityandlossandreducethe
    rateoflossby50%wasseenaslikelytooccurbythe
    beginningofthe2040s.However,theparticipants
    considereditunlikelythatthepresenceandspreadof
    water-borneinvasivealienspeciescouldbebrought
    undercontrolbefore2050.
    9.1.2Agriculture
    Themostimportantdevelopmentrelatedtowater
    resourcesaccordingtoparticipantswasincreasing
    waterwithdrawalsforagriculture.Withdrawalswere
    seenaslikelytoincreasefromthecurrentlevelof
    approximately3100billionm
    3
    to4500billionm
    3
    per
    yearby2020,ormorelikely,2030.Inseveralregions
    oftheworldSouthAsia,LatinAmericaandAfrica,in
    particular,sub-SaharanAfricaavailabilityofwater
    inthesevolumesisnotphysicallypossible.Inother
    regions,thesignicantinvestmentininfrastructure
    requiredforstorageisnoteconomicallypossiblefor
    manycountriesconcerned.
    Thesecondmostimportantrankeddevelopmentwas
    deforestation.Regionsmightseektoincreasetheir
    agriculturalareasbycontinuingtoexpanddeforesta-
    tion,albeitmoreslowly.Participantsviewedthis
    developmentasmorelikelytooccurthantheslowing
    ofexpansionofagriculturallandsasaresultofeco-
    logicalconcerns.
    Lookingatprobabledevelopments,theprobabilitywas
    seenthatfertilizerpriceswouldcontinuetotracken-
    ergyprices.Ifenergypricescontinuetorise,thecostof
    producewillalsoriseunlessofsetbyothermeasures.
    Anotherprobabilitywasthatinvestmentsininfrastruc-
    turewouldimprovetheproductionpotentialofrain-
    fedfarming(e.g.byimprovingrainwatercollectionand
    storagesystems)by2020.Suchadevelopmentwould
    makemoreefcientuseofavailablelandandwater.
    9.1.3Climatechangeandvariability
    Climatechangewillafectthehydrologicalcycle
    andhencetheavailabilityofwaterforitsusers.Itis
    expectedthatextremewater-relatedeventssuch
    asoodsanddroughtswilloccurmorefrequent-
    lyandwithgreaterintensity(Batesetal.,2008).
    Extrapolationsusinghistoricaldataarenolongervalid
    fortheseeventsasforthehydrologicalcycleasa
    wholewhichincreasesuncertaintyaboutthefuture.
    Furthermore,thespatialresolutionofglobalclimate
    changemodelsisrelativelycoarse.Asaresult,con-
    versiontothemoredetailedscalenecessaryforwater
    managerscanprovedifcult.Theproblemiscom-
    poundedbythefactthattheseprojectionsarenot
    availableatthejurisdictionallevel(stateandlocal),or
    attheriverbasinlevelwheremuchofwaterresources
    planningtakesplace.
    Theimportantdevelopmentsforthisdriverarerelated
    towateravailability.Thesurveyparticipantsestimated
    thatthenumberofpeopleatriskfromwaterstress
    waslikelytoreach1.7billionbefore2030(before2020
    attheearliest),and2.0billionbythebeginningofthe
    2030s.Thisnumberwasnotlikelytoreach3.2billion
    The survey participants
    expected that a strong,
    efective universally
    binding international
    agreement to combat
    climate change would
    likely be in place by
    2040; this was viewed
    as an event of high
    importance.
    WWDR4 263 UNDERSTANDINGUNCERTAINTYANDRISKSASSOCIATEDWITHKEYDRIVERS
    before2050.Thisisroughlyconsistentwith,though
    possiblyslightlyaheadof,theIPCCSRESscenarios
    (Nakicenovic,2000).
    Anotherimportantdevelopmentwastheincreasein
    deltalandvulnerabletoseriousooding.Thiscould
    expandby50%andwasseenaslikelytooccurbythe
    beginningofthe2040s.
    Theseeventscouldhaveasignicantimpactonagri-
    culture.Inter-annualfreshwatershortagescombined
    withoodingwereseenaslikelytoreducetotalglobal
    cropyieldsby10%bythe2040s.
    Anotherimportantdevelopmentwasthepotential
    foraworldwideriseinlivingstandardsandpopula-
    tiongrowthtogreatlyincreasethedemandforen-
    ergy,causinga20%increaseinGHGemissions.This
    wasconsideredlikelybythebeginningofthe2030s.
    Alternativeenergytechnologiesandsolutionswere
    likelytoemergemoresignicantlyaroundthistime.
    Battery-poweredelectriccarscouldhavea30%share
    oftheworldautomobilemarketbythe2030s.Wind
    powercouldgenerate20%oftheworldelectricity
    demandtowardstheendofthesamedecade.Bythe
    2040s,30%oftheworldpowerconsumptioncouldbe
    connectedtosmartpowergrids,whilehydrogenfuel
    cellscouldpower20%oftheworldautomobilemarket
    duringthesamedecade.Carboncaptureandstorage
    couldbeusedin50%ofallnewfossilpowerplants,
    mostlikelyafter2050,withexistingplantsbeingretro-
    ttedorclosed.
    Thesurveyparticipantsexpectedthatastrong,ef-
    fectiveuniversallybindinginternationalagreement
    tocombatclimatechangewouldlikelybeinplaceby
    2040;thiswasviewedasaneventofhighimportance.
    Thepositivedevelopmentwithearliest likelihoodof
    occurringisanextensivewell-plannedandnanced
    multi-nationalcampaigntosupportpubliceducationon
    thefacts,causes,efectsandcostsofclimatechange,
    bythebeginningofthe2020s.Increasedpublicinfor-
    mationandknowledgetransferaboutclimate-related
    issuesarelikelytooccurafterthis.Forexample,indis-
    putableglobalprecipitationandtemperaturechanges
    couldbereportedpubliclyinthe2020s,withefective
    internationalcoordinationinplacecoveringactivitiesin
    climateanalysis,mitigationandadaptation,andcon-
    tinualexchangeofrelatedup-to-datedata,knowledge
    andexperiencebythe2030s.The2030swillalsolikely
    seetheintegrationoffundingforclimatechangeadap-
    tationintofundingforadaptivewatermanagementa
    priorityforwater-reliantsocio-economicsectors.
    9.1.4Infrastructure
    Agingwaterinfrastructure,lackofdataanddeteriorat-
    ingmonitoringnetworksrepresentmajorrisksforthe
    futureinnearlyallregions.
    Surveyparticipantsviewedaccesstopotablewater
    andappropriatesanitationfacilitiesasthemost im-
    portantdevelopmentsinthisregard.Theyconsidered
    that90%oftheglobalpopulationwouldlikelyhave
    reasonableaccesstoareliablesourceofsafedrinking
    waterbythebeginningofthe2040s.Theirviewthat
    thebeginningofthe2030swouldseetheroutineuse
    ofnanoltersinthetreatmentofpotablewaterinover
    30countriesmayalsohaveinuencedthisappraisal.
    Thetechnologysurveyprovidedasimilartimehorizon
    fortherolloutofthistechnology:itwasconsidered
    likelythateconomicallyviablenanotechnology(such
    ascarbonnanotubes)couldyieldnewandefective
    membranesandcatalystsusefulindesalinationand
    pollutioncontrolby2030.Theparticipantsfurther
    consideredthat90%oftheglobalpopulationwould
    mostlikelyhavereasonableaccesstoappropriatesani-
    tationfacilitiestowardstheendofthe2040s.
    Asecondimportantdevelopmentwastheannualin-
    spectionofalldamsanddykesover50yearsold,and
    allthosewithsignicantrisksfromhazardsforstruc-
    turalsoundness.Thiswasestimatedmostlikelyto
    begininthe2030s.Thedevelopmentofemergency
    evacuationplanswithclearimplementationresponsi-
    bilityforthesedamsanddykeswasalsoconsidered
    mostlikelytooccurinthe2030s.Thisisparticularly
    relevantastheincreasedsiltationofdamsduetocli-
    matechangeanddeforestationcouldshortenthees-
    timatedremaininglifetimeofasignicantnumberof
    largedamsby30%.Thisdevelopmentwasalsoviewed
    asimportantandmostlikelytooccurwithinthesame
    timeframeasthepreviousdevelopments.
    Investmentsininfrastructurewereconsideredalsoto
    beofimportance.Incomeforwaterservices(tarifs,
    taxesandtransfers)coveringalloperatingcostsand
    depreciationofinfrastructuregloballywereconsidered
    likelytooccuratthebeginningofthe2040s.Thiswas
    alsothecaseforthewrite-ofofexternaldebtoflow-
    incomecountries,freeingfundsforinvestmentinwater
    infrastructure.
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 264 CHAPTER9
    Inlandnavigationneedswouldcontinuetoinuence
    riveroperationsandowallocations.The2020swould
    likelyseenationalwaterplanningtakingintoaccount
    theneedtoprovideappropriateenvironmentalows
    intheregulationofwaterinfrastructure.
    Withthethebeginningofthe2030swouldlikelycome
    robotstoremotelyandreliablymendunderground
    pipesinatleasttencountries,andtheuseofchemi-
    cal,biological,radiologicalandnuclear(CBRN)sensor
    networkstomonitorhazardousincidentsinwatersys-
    tems.Participantsalsoestimatedthatremotesensing
    technologiesandGPScouldbeusedtosupplement
    localwaterresourcemonitoringsystemsandother
    technologies,bythe2030s,toidentify,mapandex-
    ploreundergroundinfrastructureswhoselocationwas
    unknownorforgotten.
    9.1.5Technology
    Surveyparticipantsexpectedmostofthelargestwater
    consumersusingproductstoconservewaterbetween
    2020and2030.Theseincludepressure-reducing
    valves,horizontal-axisclotheswashers,water-efcient
    dishwashers,grey-waterrecyclingsystems,low-ush
    tanktoiletsandlow-oworwaterlessurinals.
    Inexpensivetechnologiesforwaterdesalinationin
    largevolumes,enablingnearlyeveryonewithin
    100miles(160km)ofcoastlinestohavewaterfor
    theirdrinkingandindustrialwaterneeds,werecon-
    sideredlikelyby2020withincreasinglikelihoodby
    2030.Thiswaslinkedtoeconomicallyviablenano-
    technology(suchascarbonnanotubes),whichcould
    yieldnewandefectivemembranesandcatalysts
    usefulindesalinationandpollutioncontrolbyremov-
    ingheavymetalandotherdissolvedpollutantsfrom
    water.Participantssawthisaslikelybetween2020
    and2030.Thesedatesprobablyreectanapprecia-
    tionofthedelaysinadoptingandbuildingsystems
    withthenewtechnology.
    Thewidespreadadoptionofawell-knowntechnology,
    rainwaterharvesting,combinedwithnew,simpleand
    cheapwaysofpurifyingthecollectedwaterwasalso
    consideredlikelybetween2020and2030.Thesame
    likelihoodwasaccordedtotheuseofafordabletech-
    nologybyagriculturiststocapturereal-timedataon
    theircropsandsoilmoisture,enablingthemtomake
    informeddecisionsonefcientirrigationschedules.
    Bothwouldhelpincreasetheefciencyoflandand
    wateruse.
    9.1.6Demography
    Populationdynamicsincludinggrowth,agedistribu-
    tion,urbanizationandmigrationleadtoincreased
    pressuresonfreshwaterresourcesthroughgreaterde-
    mandforwaterandhigherpollutionlevels.
    Unsurprisingly,overallworldpopulationsizegured
    asanimportantissuefordevelopmentsinthissec-
    tion.Surveyparticipantsfeltthattheworldpopula-
    tioncouldreach7.9billionby2034,9.15billionatthe
    beginningofthe2050s,and10.46billionbeyond2050.
    ThisisinkeepingwiththeUNPopulationDivisions
    2008Revisionmediumvariant,whichestimateda
    populationof9.1billionby2050(UNDESA,2009).
    Populationgrowthcouldoverwhelmpastgainsinwa-
    terandsanitationaccessibility.Participants(mainlyde-
    mographers)consideredthatbythe2030s,population
    growthinthemajorityofdevelopingcountriescould
    reducethepercentageofthosewithimprovedaccess
    towatersupplyandsanitationachievedsince1990
    by10%.
    Educationandemploymentofwomenwasseenasa
    developmentinuencingfertility,particularlyinleast
    developedcountries.Bythe2030s,theriseinlevelsof
    womenseducationandemploymentinamajorityof
    leastdevelopedcountriescouldcauseasignicantde-
    clineinfertilitylevels.
    Efortstoreducemortalityinleastdevelopedcountries
    wereconsideredasdevelopmentswiththeearliest
    likelihood.Inthegroupof58countriesforwhichHIV/
    AIDSprevalenceisabove1%and/orwhoseHIVpopula-
    tionexceeds500,000,mostcouldachieveanti-retrovi-
    raltreatmentcoverageforpeoplelivingwithHIV/AIDS
    of60%ormorebythe2020s.Inthesamedecadethe
    numberofinterventionstopreventmother-to-child
    transmissionofHIVinthesecountriescouldreachan
    averageof60%.Thecoveragelevelforbothinterven-
    tionswas36%in2007.
    Thecombinedglobaldeathsperyearfromdiarrhoeal
    diseasesandmalariacoulddecreaseto1.54millionor
    lessbefore2030(comparedto2.53millionin2008),
    andto710,000orlessbefore2040.
    Theinfantmortalityratewasseenaslikelytodrop.
    Theaverageestimatedmortalityratein20052010in
    lessdevelopedcountrieswas78deathsper1,000live
    births.
    3
    By2030theratewasprojectedtodropin60
    WWDR4 265
    developingcountriesto45deathsper1,000livebirths.
    Expectedsuccessesinovercomingthesechallenges
    couldexplainwhyparticipantsestimatedthatallde-
    velopingcountrieshavealifeexpectancyof70years
    ormorebythe2040s.
    Developmentsthatcoulddiminishlongevitywereseen
    aspossible.Bythe2030s,theworseningoftheepide-
    miologicalenvironmentwithregardstothespreadof
    pandemics,re-emergingpathogensandtheevolution
    ofdrug-resistantdiseasescouldpreventtheaverage
    worldlifeexpectancyfromgrowingabove75.5years.
    Bythelate2030s,delayedimpactsofobesitycouldact
    againstincreasinglifeexpectancybeyond75.5years.
    Growthinurbanpopulationwasalsodeemedimpor-
    tant.Bytheendofthe2030s70%oftheworldpopu-
    lationwasseenaslikelytobecomeurban.Thepropor-
    tionoftheworldpopulationlivinginslumswaslikely
    todecreasejustto25%bytheendofthe2040s,from
    33%today.
    Theproportionofworldpopulationlivingincoastal
    areascouldreach75%inthe2030s,increasingfrom
    60%in2010.Thenumberofmigrantsduetotheim-
    pactsofclimatechangewaslikelytoreach250million
    inthe2040s.Migrationfollowingnaturaldisastersand
    conict-basedeventsoftenoccursprincipallytocoast-
    alurbanareas,includinglargeperi-urbanslumswith
    littleornoaccesstobasicservicesandincreasedrisk
    exposuretodiseaseandepidemics.
    9.1.7Economyandsecurity
    Surveyparticipantsontheeconomyandsecu-
    ritygavealmostequalimportancetotwopossible
    developments.
    First,thedemandforwaterindevelopingcoun-
    triescouldincreaseby50%overcurrent2011levels.
    Participantsconsideredthislikelytohappenbetween
    2020and2030.Thisreinforcestheissuesraisedbythe
    participantswhoreviewedagriculturaldevelopments.
    Second,over40%ofcountriescouldexperiencesevere
    freshwaterscarcityby2020.Thiswouldoccurmost-
    lyinlow-incomecountriesorregionsinsub-Saharan
    AfricaandAsia.Itwasconsideredmorelikelythatun-
    equalaccesstowaterwouldcreateneweconomicpo-
    larities,between2020and2030.Sucheconomicpo-
    laritieswouldincreasethedangersofpoliticalunrest
    andconsequentconict.
    Awaterfootprintmeasurewilllikelybeavailableand
    publishedwidelyonanannualbasisbetween2020
    and2030(e.g.in2030theecologicalfootprintisex-
    pectedtobearoundtwicethesizeoftheEarthssur-
    face).Suchatoolwouldprovideusefulinformation
    todecision-makers,althoughthequestionremains
    astowhethertheywillhavetheresourcesandwillto
    respondappropriately.Severaltypesofcost-efective
    desalinationorothertechnologiescouldbewidely
    availableandincreasesafewatersupplyby20%glob-
    allybetween2020and2030.Thisappliestodrinking
    waterandwaterforindustrialuse,butdesalinatedwa-
    terwillprobablyremainprohibitivelyexpensiveexcept
    forhighvaluecropsornew,moreintensetypesof
    foodproduction.
    9.1.8Governance
    Manysurveyparticipantssawthefailureofurban
    watersupplyinfrastructureinmanycitiesasimpor-
    tant(underscoringtheneedtoupgradeurbanwater
    systems).Thiscouldhappeninmorethantwo-dozen
    majorcitiesby2030.Thatthisitemappearssohighin
    areviewongovernanceindicatesthatparticipantsfeel
    thaturbanwatersystemgovernanceisbadlyinneed
    ofattention.
    Thedevelopmentofonlineforumsonwaterissues
    includinglocalgovernmentandcivilsocietywasalso
    consideredimportant,reducingtheasymmetryofin-
    formationbetweenuser,providerandpolicy-maker.
    Networkedcoordinationatthenationalleveltoshare
    informationandbestpracticesbetweenlocalwater
    agencieswassimilarlyviewedasimportantandlikely
    tobeachievedinatleast95%ofcountriesbetween
    2020and2030.Clearly,publicconsultationandinfor-
    mationsharingareconsideredkeyfactorswithafair
    degreeoflikelihood.
    A water footprint
    measure will likely be
    available and published
    widely on an annual
    basis between 2020
    and 2030.
    UNDERSTANDINGUNCERTAINTYANDRISKSASSOCIATEDWITHKEYDRIVERS
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 266 CHAPTER9
    Theadoptionofaninternationalconventionspecical-
    lydedicatedtogroundwaterwasconsideredimpor-
    tant,reectingthelackofattentiontogroundwaterin
    thepast.Yetwhileparticipantsthoughtitimportant,
    itwasconsideredlikelytooccuronlyby2030,prob-
    ablyreectingthedelaysinraticationofthe1997
    UnitedNationsConventiononNon-NavigationalUses
    ofInternationalWatercourses(whichhasreceived24
    raticationsasofOctober2011).
    9.1.9Politics
    Thesurveyparticipantsonpoliticshadsimilarviewson
    theimportanceofestablishingandfollowingtrans-
    parencyandparticipationproceduresinmattersof
    watergovernance.However,theysawlittlelikelihood
    thatthiswouldtakeplaceinatleast120countriesby
    20202030.Theyalsosawasimportantthenumber
    ofpeoplelivingininsecureorunstablecountriesthat
    runasignicantriskofcollapse.Twobillionpeople
    werelivinginsuchconditionsin2010,accordingtothe
    FailedStatesIndex2010acollaborativebetweenthe
    FundforPeaceandForeign Policythatuses12indica-
    torsofstatecohesionandperformancetoassessthe
    vulnerabilityof177states.
    4
    Thatthiscouldbereduced
    tolessthan1billionpeopleby2030wasviewedas
    unlikely.Asnotedearlier,water(andrelatedfoodand
    energy)scarcitycouldhaveamajornegativeimpact
    onachievingthisobjective.Infact,participantssawa
    muchgreaterlikelihoodthatsocialinstabilityandvio-
    lencecouldspreadtomoststatesfacedwithchronic
    waterscarcity.
    Politicsrespondentsconsideredthatresistancewithin
    governmentandfromvestedinterestscouldkeep
    governmentsfrombecomingmoreparticipatory,ex-
    ibleandtransparent,leadingtofurthermistrustand/
    orincreasedactivism.Thegroupthoughtitlikelythat
    atleast100countrieswouldfallintothiscategorybe-
    tween2020and2030.Theythoughtitalmostaslikely
    thatmostpeoplecouldagreeupontheinterconnect-
    ednessoflivingsystems.Participantsfeltthatwhile
    thepopulationatlargemighteventuallyagreeupon
    actiontobetaken,governmentsaspresentlyconsti-
    tutedwouldbeunabletorespond.
    9.1.10Ethicsandculture
    Thesurveygrouponethicsandcultureconsidereda
    shiftinhumanvalues,wherebypeopleagreethatthe
    presenthasanobligationtopreserveopportunities
    forthefuture,asanimportantdevelopment.Thiswas
    deemedlikelywithinthe20202030timeframe.This
    developmentisrelatedtorecognitionoftheintercon-
    nectednessoflivingsystems,whichwasconsidered
    tohaveaboutthesameprobabilitybysurveypartici-
    pantsinthepoliticsgroup.Suchshiftsinpublicper-
    ceptioncanprovideopportunitiesforimprovedwater
    management.
    Thedeepeningofcurrentinequalitiesinaccesstowa-
    terinpoorcountriescausedbyincreasingwaterscar-
    citywasalsorankedasimportantbythisgroup,and
    deemedlikelytooccurinthe20202030period.
    Theacknowledgementofaccesstosafewaterasa
    basichumanrightbymostcountriesintheworldalso
    wasconsideredimportant.However,despiteinterna-
    tionalrecognition,thesurveyparticipantsconsidered
    thatrespectoftherightwaslikelytooccurcloserto
    2030.Ofsimilarimportancewasthedevelopmentof
    water-relatedanti-povertystrategiesincludingem-
    ploymentofpoorpeopleatwaterpoints,inirrigation
    andinfoodproduction.Theparticipantsconsidered
    thatthesestrategiescouldbeinplaceinatleast30
    countrieswithinthesametimeframe.Knowledgeshar-
    ingwasconsideredlikely,withtheemergenceofcol-
    laborativeinternationalresearchanddevelopmenton
    theethicalusesofwaterprobablewithinthe2020
    2030timeframe.
    9.2Respondingtothechallenges:Thepast
    isapoorguidetoanuncertainfuture
    Watermanagersworkinanuncertainworld.Theirrst
    priorityistoensurethesecurityofwatersupplies.
    Thesedependongeophysicalparametersthatdictate
    wateravailability(precipitation,runof,inltration),
    andthedeterminantsofhumanactivitiesthatafect
    thequalityandnaturalowofwater(e.g.howlanduse
    afectsstormwaterrunof),aswellasitsdistribution
    inspaceandtime.Untilrecently,theanalysisofhistori-
    caldatacoupledwithstochastic
    5
    analysishasprovided
    agoodbasisforexaminingextremesandsensitivi-
    tiesofwatersuppliesandtheirrobustness,resilience
    andreliabilityunderpastclimatevariability.Forwater
    managersthisisthestartingpointforanyrealistic
    analysis,conductedroutinelyinmostmanagedsys-
    tems.However,thelikelihoodofincreasedvariabilityof
    futurewatersupply,asaresultofclimatechange,will
    makeanalysesbasedonhistoricaldatalessreliable.
    Thereisalsogreateruncertaintyonthedemandside
    duetoanincreaseinthenumberandcomplexityof
    choices,whichareoutgrowingmanagersabilitiesto
    WWDR4 267
    assimilateandanalysedataandmakedecisions.Asan
    example,therearedifcultiesinpredictingthede-
    mandforspecicgoodsandservices,includingenergy,
    whichafectwaterthroughproduction,transportor
    disposal.Thesecreatenewuncertaintiesandassoci-
    atedrisksforwatermanagers.
    Technologicaldevelopmentcanaddressthesechal-
    lenges,butnotalways.Thedevelopmentofnewtech-
    nologiescanhelpaddressissuesofwaterproduc-
    tionandqualityandthusreducerisks,butnarrowly
    targetedtechnologicaldevelopmentthatdoesnot
    takeintoaccountimpactsonwatercanworsenexist-
    ingrisks(e.g.therst,currentgenerationofbiofuel
    technologies).
    Watermanagersareawareoftheexistingandpo-
    tentialvulnerabilitieswithinthesystemsinwhich
    theyoperate.However,thegatheringspeedofforces
    outsidetheircontrolposechallengestowaterman-
    agementandafectthenancialandinstitutional
    resourcesavailabletomeetthem.Thetimescalefor
    agreementonsolutionsandtheirimplementcan
    stretchtodecades,especiallyforissueswithare-
    gionalorinternationaldimension.Thepaceofchange
    reducesthetimeavailableforrecognizingtheprob-
    lemandagreeingandimplementingtherightdeci-
    sionattherighttime.Decision-makersoutsidethe
    waterboxarethemselvesafectedbytheuncertain-
    tyofhowshapingforceswillevolve.Watermanag-
    erscanonlyinformtheirdecisionsandmanagewith
    theavailabletools.Inthiscontext,itisimportantto
    developrelevantinformationascloseaspossibleto
    thegeographicscaleatwhichtheywork.Figure9.1
    illustratesthemultiplicityofdriversandthecomplex
    interactionsbetweenthem.
    9.2.1Scenarioanalysis
    Scenarioanalysisisaplanningtoolforassessingre-
    sponsestoapotentiallyverydiferentfuture,de-
    pendingonhowkeydriversdevelopandinteract.
    Therearemyriaddriversthatdeterminethefuture
    situation;therefore,itisrarelypossibletoconsider
    allofthemsimultaneously(tenhavebeendiscussed
    UNDERSTANDINGUNCERTAINTYANDRISKSASSOCIATEDWITHKEYDRIVERS
    FIGURE 9.1
    Keydriversandcausallinksafectingwaterstressandsustainabilityandhumanwell-being
    Source: Gallopin (2012, g. 2, p. 8).








    Climate change
    Water resources
    Politics and governance
    (including security)
    Values changes
    lifestyles and
    consumption patterns
    solidarity
    Technology
    water
    energy
    Water
    stress
    sustainability
    Ecosystems and
    land use (including
    agriculture)
    Population size
    and growth (water
    needs/demand)
    Economy
    (including water
    infrastructure)
    Well-being,
    poverty,
    equity
    Waterconsumptionand
    withdrawal
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 268 CHAPTER9
    earlier).Consequently,scenarioanalysistakesa
    limitednumberofdriversatatime,andassesses
    theircombinedinuenceonthevariableslikelyto
    beofparticularsignicanceforshapingthefuture
    (e.g.populationgrowthanddistribution,sizeofag-
    riculture,andtheamountofwaterused).Sensitivity
    analysisisundertakenfordriversnotincludedexplic-
    itly,toconrmthevalidityofthescenariosthathave
    beengenerated.Theseprojectionsmaythenbeused
    intheevaluationofpolicyandplanningresponses,to
    maximizebenetsand/orminimizelossesinachiev-
    ingthedesiredstate.
    World Water Scenarios Project
    ThemajorfocusoftheWorldWaterScenariosProject
    6

    isfuturewateravailabilityanditsimpactsonhuman
    well-being,includingthehealthofecosystemsthat
    providelifesupport.Theprincipalcausallinksneeded
    tobuildthelogic(orplot)ofthescenarioshavebeen
    tentativelyidentied.AsshowninFigure9.1,water
    stressandsustainability(topoval)arefunctionsofthe
    availablewaterresourcesandtheirwithdrawaland
    consumption.Inturn,bothresourcesandconsump-
    tionarevariablesthatdependonmanyfactors(only
    themostrelevantareshown).Themaindriversare
    arrangedinasequencefromtoptobottomshowing
    theproximatedrivers(toprowofboxes)thatdirectly
    impingeuponwaterstressandsustainability,andthe
    ultimatedrivers(bottomrowofboxes)thatexerttheir
    efect,mostlythroughtheirimpactsupontheproxi-
    matedrivers.Arrowsindicatecausalinuencesfrom
    andbetweendrivers.Insomecasesthereisreciprocal
    (feedback)causalitybetweendrivers.Thenextphase
    oftheScenariosProjectwillentaildevelopingscenar-
    iosandscenario-developmenttoolsthatcanbeused
    bydecision-makers.
    9.3Peeringintopossiblefutures
    Section9.1highlightedsomeofthemostimportant
    trendslikelytoafectwateranditskeydriversoverthe
    nextfortyyears,andoferedinsightonthepressures,
    uncertaintiesandrisksthesecreateforwaterresources
    usesandmanagement.Section9.2demonstratedthe
    complexityoftheinterlinkagesbetweenthesedrivers
    ofchange.Thesewillbequalitativelyandquantita-
    tivelyanalysedusingmodelsasWWAPsWorldWater
    ScenariosProjectmovesahead.
    Evenwithoutthebenetofthesystematicandanalyti-
    calapproachemployedintheWorldWaterScenarios
    project,itisusefultoconsiderhowcertaindrivers
    couldinteractwitheachother,andhowthetrendscu-
    mulateinordertoexaminepossiblefuturesforwater
    resources.Asetofpossiblefutureoutcomesareexam-
    inedhereintermsofthepositiveandnegativepres-
    surestheyaremostlikelytogenerate,andthetypes
    ofuncertaintiesandriskstheirevolutionmayproduce,
    bothregionallyandglobally.
    Contemporarycrises(food,energy,poverty,health,
    economy,environmentaldegradation,climatechange)
    aretheresultofacombinationofvariousunantici-
    patedpressuresordrivers.Whilereectingupon
    thesecrisesandsearchingforpossiblesolutions,itis
    alsoimportanttotrytondwaystoavoidfuturecri-
    ses.Thissectionprovidesasupercialexplorationof
    someofthepossibleoutcomesresultingfromcombi-
    nationsofthevarioustrendsdiscussedinSection9.1,
    andanalysestheshortandlong-termrisksinvolved
    ineachsituation.Thethreescenariosexaminedbelow
    relateto:howwecanfeedtheworldpopulation,how
    The timescale for
    agreement on
    solutions and their
    implement can stretch
    to decades, especially
    for issues with a
    regional or international
    dimension. The pace
    of change reduces
    the time available
    for recognizing the
    problem and agreeing
    and implementing the
    right decision at the
    right time.
    WWDR4 269
    theevolutionoftechnologymighthelp,andtherole
    ofpoliciesinencouragingatransitiontoasustainable
    economy.
    9.3.1Feedingornotfeeding9billionpeople
    Onepossiblefutureaimstoanalysetheimpactson
    waterofapolicystatusquo,ortodescribewhatmight
    happenintheabsenceofanyintervention.
    Theglobalpopulationislikelytoreach9.1billionin
    2050,ifnotsooner.Whilethisalonehaspotentially
    direconsequencesintermsofpressuresonnatural
    resources,especiallywater,adeeperlookatdemo-
    graphictrendsprovidesamoreconcreteportraitof
    lifein2050.AccordingtotheUNPopulationDivision
    (2010revision),(UNDESA,2009)68%ofthese9bil-
    lionpeoplewillresideinurbansettings.Atleast32%
    ofthetotalworldpopulationwillbeunder24yearsof
    age,andonaverage,peoplewilllivelongerlives(75.5
    years)(UNDESA,2009).AsmentionedinSection9.1,
    populationgrowthalonecouldreducethepercentage
    ofthosewithimprovedaccesstowatersupplyand
    sanitationby10%.
    Growthinfooddemandresultingfrompopulation
    growthandchangesinnutritionalhabits,handinhand
    withincreasedurbanization,willlikelyleadtoamul-
    tipliedincreaseinwaterdemand.Otherimpactsof
    humansettlementswillalsoincreasewithencroach-
    mentonfragileormarginallands,deforestationand
    pollution.Mostclimatechangescenariospredictthat
    increasingvariabilityandunpredictabilitywillserious-
    lyafectglobalwateravailability.AsseeninSection
    9.1,wateravailabilityisexpectedtodecreaseinmany
    regions(groundwaterrecharge,streamow,rainfall).
    Yetfutureglobalagriculturalwaterconsumptionalone
    (includingbothrainfedandirrigatedagriculture)is
    estimatedtoincreasebyabout19%by2050,andwill
    beevengreaterintheabsenceofanytechnological
    progressorpolicyintervention(seeChapter2).Infact,
    currenttrendsshowthatwaterwithdrawalsareex-
    pectedtoincreasebyatleast25%indevelopingcoun-
    tries(UNEP,2007).
    Naturalresourcesandecosystemsthatformthebasis
    oflivelihoodsareincreasinglyunderpressurefrom
    highlyintensiedandoftenunsustainableuse.Forex-
    ample,60%oftheworlds227largestriversaremod-
    eratelytogreatlyfragmentedbydamsordiversions
    (UNEP,2007),andtherateofdamconstructionis
    increasingworldwide.Deforestationforenergysupply
    andagriculturalexpansionisleadingtosoilerosion
    anddecliningsoilfertility,aswellassiltationinmany
    waterbodiesandreservoirs(reducingtheefciency
    ofdams).Asclearedlandretainslesswater,aquifer
    replenishmentdecreasesandwaterlossthroughrun-
    ofincreases.Paradoxically,landclearingforagricul-
    turedoesnotalwaysleadtosignicantorproportion-
    ateyieldincrease,particularlyinthelongterm,assoil
    fertilityrapidlydeclinesandcroppingbecomesmore
    labour-intensive(seee.g.Gibbons,etal,2009;Juoet
    al.,1995).
    Whileagriculturecontinuestouseatleast70%ofwater
    resourcesglobally,othereconomicsectorswillcontin-
    uetocompeteforwaterresources,andsomeintensely,
    withoutanexplicitmechanismforallocationdecision-
    making.Inmostcases,waterwillcontinuetoremain
    anafterthoughtofeconomicandsectoralpolicy.As
    industrydevelops,particularlyinemergingcountries
    andcountriesactivelypursuingnon-agriculturaldiversi-
    cationschemes,varioussectorspresentthepotential
    forsignicantincreasesinwateruse.Decisionsabout
    allocationsbetweensectorsareusuallynotsubjectto
    specicregulations,althoughsomecountriesexplicitly
    recognizedrinkingwaterasapriority.
    Pressuresonnaturalresourcesandtheincreasingin-
    terconnectionbetweennationaleconomiesmeanthat
    theworldislikelytocontinuetograpplewithperiodi-
    calcrises,suchastherecentfoodandnancialcrises,
    andtheimpendingenergycrisis.Toaddtouncertainty,
    thesecomplexsituationsarecloselylinked,forexample,
    thepriceoffoodiscloselylinkedtothepriceofenergy
    throughthecostsoftransportandfertilizers.Single-
    marketperturbations,causedbypolitical(e.g.conictin
    oil-producingcountries)orclimaticextremes(drought
    incrop-producingcountries)aredifculttopredictand
    havefar-reachingandoftenlong-lastingconsequences
    wellbeyondtraditionalsectoralboundaries.
    Responsestothesecrisescanalsohavenegativeim-
    pactsonwaterresourcesandmanagement,because
    theyinadvertentlycreateabiastowardsagivensolu-
    tionfocusedonaparticularwateruser;moreoften
    thannot,anintensivewateruser.Forexample,at-
    temptstopre-emptanenergycrisisthroughproduc-
    tionofbiofuelsorbytappingintohardertoreach,and
    morewaterintensive,fossilfueldeposits(oilsands,
    shalegas)couldhavenegativeimpactsbydiverting
    landandwaterfromfoodproduction,andbycreating
    amorelucrativecompetingsector.Forexample,water
    UNDERSTANDINGUNCERTAINTYANDRISKSASSOCIATEDWITHKEYDRIVERS
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 270 CHAPTER9
    usedforcoolingpowerplantsintheUnitedStatesof
    Americarepresents40%ofthecountrysindustrialwa-
    teruse.Thisgureisexpectedtoreach30%inChina
    in2030.
    7
    Increasedenergyproductionusingcurrent
    technology,atcurrentlevelsofefciency,istherefore
    likelytoexertmultipliedpressuresonscarcewater
    resources.
    Intheabsenceoftechnologicalimprovementsor
    policyinterventions,economicpolaritieswillincrease
    betweenwater-richandwater-poorcountries,aswell
    asbetweensectorsorregionswithincountries.This
    wouldmeanhighernumbersofpeoplewithhigh-
    erneedscompetingforlesswater,oflesserquality.
    Becauseallocationwillinevitablygotothehighest
    payingsector,regionorcountry,thismayresultinan
    increasinglysignicantportionofpeoplenotbeing
    abletosatisfytheirbasicneedsforfood,energy,wa-
    terandsanitation.Thiswouldnotbemerestagnation,
    butwouldlikelytaketheformofadistinctlyregressive
    trendcomparedtocurrentconditions.
    Moreimportantly,thispossibleoutcomerepresentsa
    highdegreeofriskanduncertainty.Thisisbecausethe
    underlyinglinksbetweenthevariousdriversarenot
    wellunderstoodorarenotconsideredaspartofdeci-
    sion-making,andbecausethelong-termimpactson
    waterofkeysectoraldecisionsarebeinglargelyignored.
    Therefore,thispossiblefutureremainshighlyvolatile,
    withwaterdespitebeinganassetforalleconomic
    sectorsseverelyimpactedregardlessoftheoutcome
    orevolutionofanysingledriver.Paradoxically,whilethis
    futureoutcomerepresentsthehighestriskforsociety
    overallinthelongtermandthehighestdegreeofun-
    certaintyregardingfuturewateravailabilityandman-
    agement,italsorepresentsafutureinwhichindividuals,
    governmentsandtheprivatesectoraretheleastrisk-
    averseintheirdailydecisions,focusingonshort-term
    benetsratherthanlong-termpotential.
    9.3.2Technologicalevolutionandgreaterawareness
    foragreenereconomy
    Asecondpossiblefuturewouldbedeterminedbythe
    evolutionofcurrenttechnologydevelopmenttrends,
    highlightedbrieyintheprevioussection.Thisout-
    comeassumesthattechnologydevelopmentisalmost
    exclusivelyaproductofprivatesectormobilization,
    respondingtoexistinglevelsofawareness,market
    conditionsandexistingpressuresforincreasingprot
    marginsindevelopedcountries.Thetechnologiescon-
    sideredherearenotnecessarilyapplicableuniquelyto
    watermanagementactivities(e.g.ltrationtechnolo-
    gies),butalsotowater-usingsectors(e.g.agriculture,
    energy).However,theyareallassumedtohavethe
    efectofreducingwaterdemandandwasteorimprov-
    ingwatermanagement.
    Amongthekeyanticipatedandmostlikelydevelop-
    mentsoverthenextdecadesisdesalination,which
    hasthepotentialtoincreasewateravailability,and
    wouldbecomemoreefcientandmoreafordable.
    Althoughslowintermsofoperationalization,desali-
    nationshowspotentialforprovidingdrinkingwaterin
    coastalregionswithinthenext50years.However,no
    projectionsareavailableforthepotentialnegativeim-
    pactsofthetechnology,whichatthepresentmoment
    resultinever-decreasingefciencybecauseofpollu-
    tiondischargeandover-salinizationoftheimmediate
    ecosystem.Ifleftunchecked,thistechnologycould
    havehighpositiveimpactsonwatersupply,butnega-
    tiveimpactsonmarineandcoastalenvironmentsfrom
    by-products(brine)orexcessiveintake(WWF,2007).
    Desalinationuseshighlevelsofenergy,raisingtheis-
    sueofyetanothertrade-ofbetweenwatersupplyand
    energyproduction.Solar-powereddesalinationplants,
    currentlybeingtestedinsomecountries(e.g.Saudi
    Arabia),mightprovideamoresuitableavenueinsun-
    richcountries.
    Amorepromisingtrend,onewithfewertrade-ofs,but
    slowerprivatesectormobilization,encompassesvari-
    oustechnologiesapplicabletoagriculturalwateruses
    andwhich,combined,couldleadtosignicantwater
    conservationinthemostimportantwater-usingsector.
    Thefurtherdisseminationofwater-harvestingtechnol-
    ogies,efcientirrigation(e.g.dripirrigation),aswell
    astechnologiesforthere-useofgreywaterinperi-ur-
    banagriculturecouldalsoleadtoanincreaseinwater
    availabilityforfoodproduction.Thedevelopmentof
    sustainableurbanagriculturecouldalsoprovideresil-
    ientavenuesforensuringlocalfoodsupply.Already,
    theFAOestimatesthat70%ofurbanhouseholdsin
    developingcountriesparticipateinagriculturalactivi-
    ties(FAO,2010).Thedevelopmentofbio-fertilization
    techniqueswouldalsoincreasewateruseefciencyby
    promotinghighernutrientabsorptionandcropgrowth
    rates.Increasesinon-farmefciency,broughtaboutby
    thetimelyavailabilityofagro-climaticinformation(to
    helpdealwithincreasingclimateandrainfallvariabili-
    ty),earlywarningsystemsandmechanization,whichis
    stilllaggingbehindinmanycountries,couldalsolead
    toanoverallincreaseinwateruseefciency.
    WWDR4 271
    Rapiduptakeofthesetechnologieswouldbepaired
    withtheanticipatedevolutionofglobalconscious-
    nessregardinghumanimpactsonenvironment,andin
    particular,anincreasedunderstandingofwaterscar-
    cityissues(seeSection9.1).Developedcountrymar-
    kets,alreadybeginningtoshowapreferencetowards
    responsibleproducts,wouldcontinuetoencourage
    technologydevelopment,whiletheavailabilityofaf-
    fordablegreenproducts,practicesandoptionswould
    induceagradualtransformationtowardsagreenecon-
    omy.Thisappliestofoodaswellasotherconsumer
    goods.Italsohasthepotentialtoefectagradualshift
    inagriculturalpracticestowardsorganicfarming,local
    orperi-urbanagriculture,andoverallmoresustainable
    andequitableagriculture,whichusesfewerpesticides,
    maximizesefciencyinitsuseofinputsincludingwa-
    ter,andproduceshigheryieldsandsocio-economic
    benets.Recentdatashowsthatmarketsfororganic
    foodandbeveragesexpanded1020%onaverageper
    yearbetween2000and2007(Sahota,2009),result-
    inginasimilarexpansionofsustainablymanaged
    farmland(UNEP,2011).
    UNEPdenesthegreeneconomyasonethatresults
    inimprovedhumanwell-beingandsocialequity,while
    signicantlyreducingenvironmentalrisksandecologi-
    calscarcities(UNEP,2010,p.4).Anaturallyevolv-
    inggreeneconomyonebroughtaboutwithouta
    consciouspolicyefortthroughthecombinedresult
    oftechnologydevelopmentandincreasedawareness
    wouldresultinadecreasedwaterfootprintinmost
    water-usingsectors,inparticularagriculture,because
    ofincreasedconservation,reuseandrecycling,and
    greaterefciency.Thiswouldalsohavepositivere-
    sultsonoverallpovertyreductionandsocio-economic
    development.
    Insuchafuture,voluntarylabellingofproductsac-
    cordingtotheirwaterefciencyorwaterusewould
    becomemorefrequent(althoughnotnecessarilysub-
    jecttowell-establishednormsandstandards).Fair-
    trade,greenorsustainablelabellingwouldincreasingly
    includeameasureofwaterfootprints.
    Thesesomewhatspontaneoustechnologydevelop-
    ments(extrapolatedfromcurrenttrends)wouldpro-
    ducebenetsforwater,butmightnotproducethe
    completesetofexpectedgreen-economybenets
    foravarietyofreasons.First,theremaybedelaysin
    adoptionbecauseofculturalobstaclestotechnologi-
    caluptake(forexample,resistancetotherecycling
    Thereisariskthattheresponseofproducerstothe
    evolutionoftheseprotabletechnologiescouldofset
    (orevennullify)anygainsinwateruseefciency;for
    example,ifproducerscontinuetoexpandagricultural
    landintomarginalorfragileareas(suchaswetlands,
    slopesorforests),resultinginanacceleratingrateof
    deforestationandsoilerosion.Nevertheless,thecom-
    binationofthesetechnologicaldevelopmentswould
    meananincreaseinwaterrequirementsforagricul-
    tureofcloseto2025%(seeChapter2),ratherthanan
    agriculturalwaterrequirementincreaseof7090%(as
    describedinSection9.2.1).
    Furthertechnologydevelopmentsapplicabletourban
    waterproductionandwastehandlingthatarelikely
    toincreaseduetosheerurbanpopulationgrowthare
    alsoexpectedtocontributetoreducingabsolutewater
    withdrawalsandwaste.Forexample,thedevelopment
    ofnanotechnology,citedasoneofthemostprob-
    ableanticipatedtechnologiesinSection9.2.1,willhelp
    reducepollutionandacceleratethepaceofltration,
    makingwaterre-usepossibleandincreasinglyaford-
    able.Grey-waterreuse,alongwithsimplewatercon-
    servationtechnologiesforurbanapplications(more
    efcienttoilets,in-housegreywaterrecycling,more
    efcientshowers)wouldalsomakewaterconserva-
    tionpracticesforurbandwellersmoreafordable.The
    opportunitycostofselectingecologicaloptionswould
    decreasebothattheindividualandthecommunity
    scale.Thiswillmeanmoreefcientoptionsforurban
    planningandanincreaseingreenbuildingdesign,
    whichwillfacilitatetheefcientintegrationofnewur-
    banmigrants.
    Similardevelopmentscanbeexpectedfromantici-
    patedgrowthinrenewableenergytechnology,and
    inenergyefciencymeasures,whicharethemselves
    drivenbypressuresoncurrentenergyresources.As
    waterisakeyinputinalmostallenergyproduction
    (fromextractiontocooling),industrialdemandfor
    waterisexpectedtoincreaseaspopulationgrowth
    ispairedwithincreasingenergydemand.Thegrowth
    inrenewableoralternativeenergytechnologywill
    thereforehaveabenecialimpactonwaterdemand,
    potentiallyfreeingresourcesformoreefcientuses,
    perhapsforagriculture.Photovoltaicpanelsandwind
    turbines,whichhaverecentlyexpandedinnumberin
    manycountries,requiremuchlesswaterforproduc-
    tionandverylittleformaintenance.Urbandevelop-
    mentusingcheapersolarenergieswouldtherefore
    reducewaterdemand.
    UNDERSTANDINGUNCERTAINTYANDRISKSASSOCIATEDWITHKEYDRIVERS
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 272 CHAPTER9
    regardingnancing,povertyreduction,climatechange,
    science,andwatergovernanceandoveralleconomic
    policybeingtaken.
    AshighlightedinSection9.2.2,alegallybindinginter-
    nationalagreementtocombatclimatechangecould
    beinplaceby2040,alongwithsignicantnancing
    forawareness-raisingandadaptationinlow-income
    countries.Becausemostclimatechangeimpactsarefelt
    throughwater,thiswouldhavepositiverepercussions
    ontheoveralllevelsofnancingforwater.Thiscould
    meanhigherlevelsofinvestmentinwaterinfrastruc-
    ture,leadingtoreductionsinwasteandincreasesin
    sustainablemobilization,aswellasincreasedsanitation
    networkcoverage.Theadoptionofaconcertedefortto
    curbgreenhousegasemissionswouldsendaclearsig-
    naltotheprivatesectorconcerningthefurtherdevelop-
    mentofalternativeandrenewableenergies,conrming
    atrendexploredintheabovetechnology-drivenfuture.
    Hence,technologydevelopmentforwaterextraction
    anddistribution,andreductionsinindustrialwateruse
    (especiallyforenergy),arealsoexpectedfromthe
    adoptionofanoptimalclimatechangeregime.
    Strongerconcertedefortstoreducepovertywould
    alsoyieldsignicantbenetsforwaterandsanita-
    tion,throughanincreaseinfundingforwater-related
    initiatives.Aswaterisoftenaconstrainingfactoron
    agriculturalproductivityandotherformsofeconomic
    development,investmentinwatermanagementand
    conservation,aswellassanitation,isexpectedtode-
    livermultipliedpoverty-reductionbenets.Moreover,
    debtforgivenessalsoamongthepotentiallyexpect-
    edinternationalpolicydecisionscouldfreesub-
    stantiallevelsoffundingforwaterinfrastructureand
    development.
    Atthenationallevel,anotherkeypolicymightbe
    achievedbyestablishingfairpricesforwater.This
    wouldbecontingentonthedevelopmentofsolid
    propertyregimes,documentedlandtenurearrange-
    ments,andclearlyestablishedwaterrightsandal-
    locationsystems.However,ifcoupledwithagrow-
    ingsenseofawarenessamonglocalpopulationsand
    agenerallyhigherlevelofunderstandingofwater
    issues,themorelikelyoutcomewouldbetheinte-
    grationofwaterissuesintodevelopmentplanning,
    particularlyurbanplanning.Adequaterevenuesfrom
    watermanagementwouldalsoallowfortheregular
    maintenanceofwaterinfrastructureandreducecon-
    taminationandleakages.
    ofsewagewaterfordrinking).Second,theremaybe
    structuralorpolicyobstaclestotechnologytransferand
    disseminationbecauseofintellectualpropertybarriers,
    oralackofinvestmentinresearchandextension(par-
    ticularlyintheagriculturalsector),oralackoffunding,
    whichcouldleadtoregionaldisparitiesinaccess,po-
    tentiallyaggravatingcurrentincomegaps.Suchgapsin
    accessalreadyexist,withsmallpocketsofprivatesector
    interestsholdingthemajorityofpublic-interestpatents
    andintellectualpropertyrights.Thereisariskthatthe
    unregulateddevelopmentoftechnologycouldleadto
    perpetuatedpolaritiesbetweenthehavesandhave-
    nots.Finally,inadequategovernanceanddecision-mak-
    ingsystemsmaycreatemarketdistortionstowardsinef-
    cienttechnologies,forexample,throughinappropriate
    subsidiesorforlackoflong-termvision.Asaresult,this
    secondpossiblefuture,althoughrealisticallyachievable
    insometargetedplacesorpockets,willremainsubopti-
    mal,highlightingtheneedforasetofpolicyresponses
    ormeasurestobringaboutmorerapid,equitableand
    sustainablechange.
    Nevertheless,thispossiblefuturerepresentsamarked
    changeintheuncertaintyweface,asincreasedaware-
    nessandamarkedprivate-sectorinterestinemerg-
    ingopportunitiesmeanthatwatermanagementisno
    longerobscuredbyothershort-termgains.Inthispos-
    sibleoutcome,theimpactsonwaterofvarioussectoral
    orinterest-baseddecisionsaremorereadilyunderstood
    thankstoinvestmentsinresearchanddevelopment,
    andbecausethepossibilitiesoferedbytechnologyare
    moreevident.Inthispossiblefuture,somesegments
    oftheprivatesectorandgovernmentsareshouldering
    apartoftheshort-termrisksbyinvestinginresearch
    anddevelopmentandcreatingnewmarkets,because
    thelong-termrisksaremoreapparentandthepotential
    benetsarealsomoreclearlyunderstood.However,the
    long-termrisksanduncertaintiesfacedbywaterusers
    andwater-usingsectorsarestillnotentirelymitigated.
    Furthermore,whilethereisachancethatthisspontane-
    ouslyemerginggreenereconomyhaspositiveimpacts
    onwater,thereremainsuncertaintyaboutcontinued
    negativeimpactsandtrade-ofs.
    9.3.3Policiesthatencourageatransitiontoa
    sustainablewatereconomy
    Athirdpossiblefutureextrapolatesoncurrentde-
    mographicandtechnologytrends,aswellasasetof
    policyinterventionsthatcouldbeadoptedoverthe
    nexttwodecades.Itpresentsapictureofapossible
    futurebaseduponkeyorimportantpolicydecisions
    WWDR4 273
    Otherpolicychangeswouldincludetheremovalof
    unsustainablesubsidiesinagricultureandoverallag-
    riculturaltradeliberalization.Subsidiesthatencour-
    ageinefcientusesofland,waterandfertilizers,and
    createmarketdistortionstowardshigherwaterusers,
    wouldbegraduallyreplacedbyexible,index-based
    insuranceschemesthatallowproducerstomake
    short-termcroppingdecisionsbasedonclimatevari-
    abilityandextremes,whileencouragingintra-seasonal
    innovationandtechnologicalupgradingofcultivation
    practices.This,coupledwithincreasedspendingon
    agriculturaltechnology,extensionandresearch(asan
    engineofeconomicrecovery),wouldleadtosigni-
    cantwaterefciencygainsintheagriculturesector
    alone.ModelsdevelopedrecentlyfortheUNEPGreen
    Economyinitiativeshowthattradeliberalizationtends
    toreducewateruseinwater-scarceregionsandin-
    creasewateruseinwater-abundantregions,mean-
    ingthatwaterwouldbeallocatedtoitsmostefective
    useatthegloballevel(Calzadillaetal.,2010).Thereis,
    however,ariskthatwithouttransparentandequity-
    basedlocalallocationmechanisms,furtherliberaliza-
    tioncouldstillcreatebarriersordifcultiesofwater
    accessforsmallerproducers.
    Anotherpolicyshiftmightbeinspiredbytherecogni-
    tionthathealthyenvironmentsprovidekeyservices,
    inparticular,water.Hence,governmentsatthelocal,
    subregionalandnationallevelscouldbegininvest-
    ingintherestorationandrehabilitationofkeyecosys-
    temfunctions.Asaresult,productivitywouldincrease
    withoutjeopardizingkeyenvironmentalservices.This
    wouldbegreatlyfacilitatedbycurrenttechnology
    developmenttrendsandincreasesinawareness,par-
    ticularlyindevelopedcountries.Itwouldalsobesup-
    portedbytheincreasedunderstandingthathealthy
    ecosystemscanhelpadapttotheefectsofclimate
    changewhilemaintaininglocallivelihoods.Asseen
    inrecentstudies,water-relatedservicesprovidedby
    healthyecosystems,suchasmangroves,forestsand
    wetlands,comparefavourablywiththoseprovided
    byman-madestructures(suchastreatmentplants),
    whichusuallycomewithmuchhighercosts(see
    TEEB,2010;WorldBank,2010),shorterlife-spans,and
    arepotentiallylessresistanttoanticipatedclimate
    changes.
    Increasedawarenessamongtheglobalandnational
    population,coupledwithincreasedaccesstoinforma-
    tionandincreasedinclusivenessandparticipationof
    stakeholderseverywhere,couldalsoleadtoshiftsin
    watergovernancewithinandbetweencountries.With
    recognitionofthefactthatwaterisbestmanagedat
    locallevels,water-basininstitutionsanddecentral-
    izedauthoritieswouldbegivenincreasedpowerand
    resourcestoefectivelymanagewaterwithincountries.
    Thiswouldpromotelocalandclimate-responsiveal-
    locationofwateramongusers,facilitatedbywell-reg-
    ulatedpricingand,potentially,innovativewaterrights
    tradingmechanisms.Itwouldensurethatbasicwater
    needsaremet,aswellasneedsforenvironmental
    purposes,whilepromotingthemostefcientusesof
    water.Forsharedbasins,transparentprocessesforal-
    locationanddistributioncouldemerge,providedother
    marketdistortionsareremovedandtradeisfurtherlib-
    eralizedasmentionedabove.
    Adeeperevolutioninvaluesmayberequired,includ-
    ingadeclineinconsumerismandconsciousefortsto
    reduceenergyconsumptionattheindividualandlocal
    level,specicallyindevelopedcountries.Thismayalso
    requireasofteningofaspirationstofoodsovereignty
    (i.e.productionofallfoodlocallyregardlessofimpacts
    onwater)toallowfortheemergenceoffairerinterna-
    tionaltradingsystems.Whilewaterhasbeenrecog-
    nizedasahumanright,mentalitiesmayneedtoevolve
    toallowforequitablewaterpricestoemerge.
    Communitiesandcountrieswouldbebetterprepared
    foruncertaintiesandmoreadeptatmanaginglong-
    termriskstowaterwithincreasedinformation,par-
    ticipationanddialogueamongwaterusers,anda
    Debt forgiveness also among the potentially
    expected international policy decisions could
    free substantial levels of funding for water
    infrastructure and development.
    UNDERSTANDINGUNCERTAINTYANDRISKSASSOCIATEDWITHKEYDRIVERS
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 274 CHAPTER9
    longer-termviewtowards(andacceptanceof)holis-
    ticapproaches.Thisoutcomerepresentstheproduct
    ofconcertedthinkingandactionbasedonpotential
    risksandtrade-ofs.Uncertaintieswouldbereduced
    duetotheincreaseininformationandknowledge,and
    theadoptionofclearpolicieswouldprovidesignals
    tomarkets,furtherreducingrisks.Inthisfuture,each
    segmentofsocietyshouldersapartoftheshort-term
    risksinvolvedinchangingpoliciesorpracticesand
    developingnewproductsandmarkets,allowingfora
    reductionofthegloballong-termrisks.
    9.4Waterfuturesforbetterdecision-
    making
    Theseexercisesinfuturethinkingprovideacursory
    viewofpotentialfuturesandanillustrationofthein-
    terconnectionsbetweenthevariousdrivers.Theyil-
    lustratethepossibleimpactsofasetofstrongpolicies
    andchoicesthatmayappeardifcult(orrisky)today,
    butaremostlikelytoyieldrapideconomicandliveli-
    hoodbenetsatalllevelsandreducelong-termrisks
    anduncertainties.
    However,moreconcrete,rationalandscienticmod-
    ellingofwaterfuturesisnecessarytobettercalibrate
    andexplorethesepossiblefutures,includingthede-
    velopmentofregionalandglobalwaterscenarios.Lack
    ofknowledgeisoneofthekeylimitationstoadopt-
    ingsomeofthemeasuresnotedabove.Targetedand
    relevantknowledgeisnecessarytomakeinformedno-
    regretspolicydecisions,whetherattheinternational,
    nationalorlocallevel.Knowledgereducesuncertain-
    tiesandmakesrisksmoremanageableattheindividu-
    al,communityandinternationallevel.
    Thisincludesscience-basedandconsensus-based
    measuresofthewaterfootprintofvariousproducts;
    measuresofwater-useefciencyforenergysupply
    technology,basicappliancesandcrops;downscaled
    climateandhydrologicalmodelsthatwouldallowfor
    basin-basedallocationdecision-making;andeco-
    nomics-basedmodellingthatwouldprovidenancial
    informationontheratesofreturnofvariouspolicy
    measuresandinvestments,includinginfrastructure,
    ecosystemrehabilitationordiversicationaswellas
    informationonthelong-termcostsofinaction.The
    comprehensiveandrigorouswaterscenariosbeing
    developedaspartofWWAPsWorldWaterScenarios
    Project,shouldprovideastrongerindicationofpolicy
    pathwaystowards(oravoidanceof)determinedwater
    futures.Thedevelopmentofwaterscenariosappears
    evermorenecessaryinthefaceoftherisksanduncer-
    taintiesinvolvedincontinuingwiththebusiness-as-
    usualmodesofwatermanagement.

    Notes
    1 Asignicantnumberofscenariosrelatedtowaterattheglobal
    andothergeographicscaleswereidentiedandexamined
    todeterminedriversthatshouldbereviewedintheWWAP
    scenariosproject.Throughthisreview,tendriverswere
    identiedforin-depthresearchbygraduate-levelresearchers,
    toexaminepossiblefuturedevelopmentsineachofthe
    domainswhilealsoseekingtoidentifyinterlinkageswithsome
    oftheotherselecteddrivers.SeethetwoWWAPGlobalWater
    Futures2050publicationsFive Stylized Scenarios(G.Gallopn)
    andThe Dynamics of Global Water Futures: Driving Forces 2011
    2050(C.E.CosgroveandW.J.Cosgrove).
    2 Theoccurrenceofdroughtsisdeterminedlargelybychanges
    inseasurfacetemperatures,especiallyinthetropics,through
    changesinatmosphericcirculationandprecipitation.Overthe
    pastthreedecades,droughtshavebecomemorewidespread,
    intenseandpersistentduetodecreasedprecipitation
    overlandandrisingtemperatures,resultinginenhanced
    evapotranspirationanddrying.
    3 BasedontheUnitedNationsPopulationDivisionsquinquennial
    estimatesandprojections.WorldPopulationProspects,2006
    revision,andtheUNCommonDatabasecode13600.
    4 FormoreinformationseetheFundforPeacewebsite
    http://www.fundforpeace.org
    5 Stochasticanalysisisdenedashavingaprobability
    distribution,usuallywithnitevariance.
    6 AprojectoftheWorldWaterAssessmentProgramme(WWAP)
    partiallyfundedviaUN-Water.
    7 NationalResearchCouncil(2010)and2030WaterResources
    Group(2009)ascitedinUNEP(2011)(GER4).

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    UNDERSTANDINGUNCERTAINTYANDRISKSASSOCIATEDWITHKEYDRIVERS
    CHAPTER30 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 276

    Author JamesWinpenny
    CHAPTER 10
    Unvalued water leads to
    an uncertain future
    Shutterstock/SebStock

    The policies that shape water governance are commonly formulated by politicians and
    ofcials in planning, economic, nance and water-using departments. As such, national
    economic and nancial considerations play a highly inuential role. The case for investment in
    water and for reforming its development and management is also often framed by others in
    social, ethical, equity or public health terms. As a consequence, the real importance of reform
    is not always apparent in public decisions. In the face of rapid change and uncertainty there
    is a risk that this situation will continue or worsen, creating even greater challenges. It is vital
    therefore that the case for reform be adequately stated in economic terms. This chapter sets
    out the elements of such an economic case, starting with the overall benets of water to
    an economy, and proceeding to consider the value of water in the various parts of its cycle.
    These benets and values can be used to inform policies for the allocation and use of water
    in situations of growing resource pressures, uncertainties and associated risks.
    10.1Thepoliticaleconomyofinvestingin
    water:Statingthebenets
    Investinginwaterhasvariouseconomicbenets.In
    particular,itpromotesthegrowthofnationalincome
    byproviding:
    Securityagainstuctuationsintheavailabilityofwa-
    ter(mitigatingbothoodsanddroughts)andpromo-
    tionoflong-termclimateresilience.
    Agrowthcatalystbyopeningupnewtypesofeco-
    nomicactivity,whichwerenotpreviouslyfeasible.
    Ongoingbenetsintermsofaddedvalueandwelfare
    forusersthroughoutthehydrologicalcycle.Theseus-
    ersincludeeconomicallyproductivesectorssuchas
    agriculture,industry,hydropower,navigation,recrea-
    tionandtourism,andhouseholds.Wateralsocon-
    stitutesavitalinputtoecosystemsandallaquatic
    habitats,whichinturnprovideessentiallifesupportin
    additiontoserviceswithaneconomicvalue.
    Thefollowingthreesectionsexaminethesebenetsin
    turn.
    10.1.1Abuferagainstclimaticuctuationsandakey
    toclimateresilience
    Thereisnouniversallyaccepteddenitionofwater
    security;thetermcanmeandiferentthingsindifer-
    entcontexts.Ingeneral,itreectsacountrysabilityto
    functionproductivelyinthefaceofwatervulnerability.
    Thishasbeenexpressed(e.g.GreyandSadof,2008)as
    theneedforallsocietiestohaveaminimum platformof
    investmentinwaterinstitutionsandinfrastructureasa
    basisforwatersecurity.Belowthisminimum,societies
    aretoovulnerabletowatershocksandunreliablewater
    supplyforproductionorhumanlivelihoods:socialfab-
    ricissignicantlyafectedandeconomicgrowthcannot
    bereliablyandpredictablymanaged(GreyandSadof,
    2008,,p.7).Oncetheminimumplatformhasbeenput
    inplace,basicneedsaresatisedandfurtherwater
    developmentcanstimulateeconomicgrowth.
    Manycountrieswherethisconceptismostrelevantare
    regularlydevastatedbyclimaticextremes,failtomeet
    thebasichouseholdneedsoftheirpopulations,and
    cannotoferreliablewaterservicestotheirfarmers
    andindustries.Insucheconomiesinvestmentinagri-
    cultureisdiscouraged,whileanunreliablewatersup-
    plyisalsoadeterrenttothedevelopmentofindustry
    andservices(AICD,2010).Agreaterabilitytocoun-
    teractclimaticvariabilitycanavoidtheworstcostsof
    droughtsandooding.InKenyalossesfromooding
    fromElNioin1997-98anddroughtfromLaNiain
    1998-2000rangedfrom10-16%ofGDPduringthose
    years.GrowthofGDPinMozambiquewasreducedby
    1%annuallyduetowatershocks.InZambiahydrologi-
    calvariabilityisestimatedtoloweragriculturalgrowth
    by1%eachyear.InTanzaniatheimpactofthe2006
    droughtonagriculturecausedlossesequivalentto1%
    ofGDP([McKinsey,2009)].Reducingthedamaging
    impactofthishydrologicalvariabilitywouldhavema-
    jorbenetsforthemacroeconomy(AICD,2010).
    Thestronglikelihoodofclimatechangeisanadditional
    justicationforimplementingprojectstostrengthen
    watersecurity.However,manysuchprojectsarejus-
    tiableevenwithoutthisscenario.No regret and low
    regretprojectsgeneratenetsocialand/oreconomic
    benetirrespectiveoftheimpactsandconsequences
    ofclimatechange.Manyoftheseprojectswoulden-
    ableaneconomytobettercopewithexistingclimatic
    variability,irrespectiveoffuturechanges.
    10.1.2Waterinfrastructureasacatalystforeconomic
    growth
    Theharnessinganddevelopmentofwaterresources
    hasbeenafundamentaldriverofeconomicgrowthin
    manycountriesandperiodsthroughouthistory.For
    example,itconstitutedthemajorfactorinthede-
    velopmentofthewesternUnitedStatesofAmerica
    throughoutmuchofthetwentiethcentury,andgalva-
    nizedtherecoveryoftheTennesseeValleyregionfrom
    theGreatDepressionofthe1930s(DelliPriscoli,2008).
    Theroleofwaterresourcesdevelopmentineconomic
    growthinArizona(USA),KoreaandTurkeyiscovered
    extensivelyinMays(2006).
    Theconstructionoflargedamshasbecomecontrover-
    sial.Itisthereforeimportanttofullyassessthealterna-
    tivesandtobeawareof,andproperlymanage,their
    socialandenvironmentalimpacts(WorldCommission
    onDams,2009).Nevertheless,investmentinlarge
    damsincertainregions(e.g.theAswan,Karibaand
    VoltadamsinAfrica)hasprovidedamajorstimulus
    forthedevelopmentanddiversicationofthehost
    economies(GranitandLindstrom,2009).Subjectto
    theabove-mentionedqualications,climatechange
    reinforcestheexistingcaseforprovidinggreaterwater
    storageinAfricaandelsewhere.
    10.1.3Thewhole-cyclebenetsofwater
    Muchofthewaterresultingfromrainfallandother
    precipitationisstoredinlakes,aquifersandsoonfor
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 278 CHAPTER10
    WWDR4 279 UNVALUEDWATERLEADSTOANUNCERTAINFUTURE
    multipleuses,afterwhichitisreturnedtorivers,lakes
    orgroundwaterforfurtheruse.
    1
    Althoughwateris
    oftenmisleadinglyreferredtoasasector,itisactually
    aubiquitousmedium,andonethatcreatesbenets
    ateachpartofitshydrologicalcycle(Figure10.1).The
    manyfacetsofwatercanalsobeviewedasavalue
    chain (OECD,2010).
    Thedevelopmentandmanagementofwatershedsand
    catchmentsspansarangeofactivities,bothhardand
    soft.Thespectrumvariesfrommajormulti-purpose
    storageschemestoactivitiesentailedintheprotection
    andenhancementofwatershedandriverbasinfunc-
    tionsincludingaforestation,catchmentmanagement,
    landusecontrols,andsoon.Manyoftheseactivities
    arecarriedoutbylandusersthemselves,asinthecase
    offarmersrespondingtoincentivesandsanctions.
    Theseactivitiescreatevaluefordownstreamcom-
    munitiesthroughsavingsincoststhatwouldother-
    wisebeincurred.InNewYorkState,aprogrammefor
    watershedprotectionthatencouragesfarmersinthe
    uppercatchmentareatoconverttomoreenviron-
    mentallyfriendlycultivationpracticesisexpectedto
    leadtosubstantialsavingsindownstreamwatertreat-
    mentforthepopulationofNewYorkCity(Salzman,
    2005;OECD,2010).DatafromotherAmericancities
    (PortlandOregon,PortlandMaineandSeattle)conrm
    thesignicantnancialsavingsfromwatershedpro-
    tection,comparedwiththecostofbuildingnewwater
    treatmentandltrationsystems(EmertonandBos,
    2004).SimilarexperiencesexistinLatinAmerica,as
    forexampleinBrazil,CostaRica,EcuadorandSalvador
    (DourojeanniandJouravlev,1999;Jouravlev,2003).
    Upstreaminvestmentandmanagementcanbenet
    downstreamusersinotherways,directlyandindi-
    rectly.Greaterregularityofowsofgoodqualitywater
    cansavecostsofstorage,developmentandtreatment
    forurbanwaterworks,industrialabstractors,farmers
    andotherwaterusers.Themaintenanceofminimum
    riverowscreatesassimilativecapacityforwastewater
    releases(whichwouldotherwiseneedpre-treatment)
    andprovidesushingforriverswithaheavysediment
    load.Ineachofthesecases,anyimpairmentofthe
    naturalriverfunctionsduetoinadequatemanagement
    wouldrequirecostlyhumaninterventionstodealwith
    theproblemscaused.
    Waterisincreasinglyacriticalfactorindecisionsregard-
    ingthelocationofeconomicactivitiessuchasindus-
    try,mining,powerandtourism.Companiesworkingor
    contemplatinginvestmentinwater-stressedregionsare
    becomingawareoftheirwaterfootprintanditsimpact
    onlocalcommunities,whichcouldposeoperationaland
    reputationalriskstotheirbusiness.Agrowingnum-
    berofcountrieswillalsofaceincreasingdifcultiesin
    providingwatertotheirgrowingwater-intensivecities,
    farmsandindustries.Investmentinmeasurestobring
    supplyanddemandintobetteralignmentcansafe-
    guardfuturedevelopmentinsuchcases.
    Inastudyofthewatersupply-demandbalanceinfour
    rapidlygrowingcountriesandregionsChina,India,
    thestateofSaoPauloinBrazilandSouthAfricacur-
    renttrajectoriesandunchangedpoliciesproduce
    growthprojectionsto2030incompatiblewithwater
    endowments.Achievingtherequiredgrowthtargets
    willnecessitateactiontoclosethepotentialsupply-de-
    mandgapforwater,combininginvestmentsinsupply
    enhancementandmeasuresofdemandmanagement
    (McKinsey,2009).
    Themostvisibleandbest-studiedaspectofthewater
    cycleconcernshouseholdservicesthebenetstoin-
    dividualpeopleandtheirfamiliesfromreceivingclean,
    safewaterandassociatedsanitationinareliablefash-
    ionorclosetowheretheylive.Peoplereceivingsuch
    servicesareatlessriskofcontractingwater-bornedis-
    ease,spendlesstimefetchingwaterandlessmoney
    buyingit,andhavemoretimeandenergyavailable
    FIGURE 10.1
    Benetsfromthewatercycle
    Services from
    ecosystems and
    aquatic habitats
    River basin
    management,
    resource
    development,
    ood control,
    etc.
    Value-added in
    hydropower,
    industry,
    agriculture,
    mining,
    recreation and
    tourism, etc.
    Water supply and
    sanitation for
    households
    Wastewater
    collection,
    treatment, reuse
    and disposal
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 280
    forpersonalwashing,cookinganddomesticcleaning.
    Likewise,improvedhouseholdsanitationprovidesnu-
    merousbenetsforpublichealth,aswellaslesstime
    spentseekingprivacy,moredignityandlessembar-
    rassment,greateropportunitiesforfemaleeducation,
    andgreaterprideandcommunalandpersonalpres-
    tige.
    2
    Lentini(2010)andOblitasdeRuiz(2010)provide
    anexhaustiveoverviewofthemanyanddiverseben-
    etsofwaterservicesinatypicaldevelopingcountry
    setting,andLentini(2010)alsopresentsamethodol-
    ogyfortheirmonetaryestimation.
    Thesepotentialbenetscannotbefullycapturedin
    economicterms,althoughevidenceisbecomingavail-
    ablethatissuggestiveofthesizeofbenetsandtheir
    returnsontheinvestment.Empiricalstudiescarried
    outattheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)and
    elsewhereshowthatinvestmentsinarangeofwa-
    tersupplyandsanitationinterventionscanhavehigh
    economicbenet-costratios.Thebenetsaretypically
    savingsintimespentinhouseholdduties,including
    fetchingwaterand,toalesserextent,savingsinthe
    variouscostsincurredinillnessandmedicaltreatment
    (HuttonandHaller,2004).
    Thefollowinginterventionsweremodelledinthe
    above-mentionedstudy:
    1.Thedrinkingwaterpartofthetargettohalve,by
    2015,theproportionofthepopulationwithoutsus-
    tainableaccesstosafedrinkingwaterandbasic
    sanitation,withprioritygiventothosealreadywith
    improvedsanitation(UN,2010,p.58,Target7c)
    2.Theabovetargetforbothwaterandsanitation
    3.Accessforalltoimprovedwaterandsanitation
    4.Universaldisinfectionofwateratpointofuseon
    topofintervention(3)
    5.Universalaccesstoregulated,pipedwaterand
    sewageconnectionsintohomes
    Foreachofthe17WHOregionsandforeachofthe
    veinterventionsmodels,benet-costratioswerepos-
    itive,somespectacularlyso
    3
    (HuttonandHaller,2004,
    pp.35and64).
    Theeconomicbenetsofsanitationincludetimesaved
    fromqueuingforpublictoiletsorseekingoutsecluded
    spotsintheopen;increasedschoolattendance,espe-
    ciallyforadolescentgirls;andgainsinnationalpro-
    ductivityfromthegreatereaseofemployingwomen
    wherepropersanitationfacilitiesareprovided.Local
    standardsofsanitationalsohaveanefectontourist
    visitstoareasconcerned(OECD,2010,p.33).
    InIndonesia,WorldBankresearchestimatesthatthe
    countrylostUS$6.3billion(2.3%ofGDP)in2006from
    poorsanitationandhygiene.Theresultwasincreased
    healthcosts,economiclosses,andofsettingcostsin
    othersectors(WorldBank,2008b).Corresponding
    lossesinthePhilippinesaspartofthesameover-
    allstudyamountedtoUS$41.4billionor1.5%ofGDP
    (WorldBank,2008a).
    Investmentinsafewastewatercollectionandtreatment,
    includingindustrialefuents,canalsoremoveapoten-
    tialbrakeoneconomicactivity.Ithasbeenestimated
    thatwaterpollutioninSouthAfricacoststhecountry
    1%ofitsannualnationalincome(PegramandSchreiner,
    2010).Theprincipalbenetsofwastewatertreatment
    areavoidanceofthecostsofpollutionandoftheuse
    ofcontaminatedwaterbydownstreamusers,suchas
    othermunicipalities,industries,farmersandthetourism
    industry.Inseriouscases,thepollutionofwaterbodies
    hascausedindustriestobecloseddownandrelocated
    atgreatcost,orimpedeaccessofagriculturalandsh-
    eryproductstointernationalmarkets.
    Watercontinuestoprovidebenetsafteritsuseby
    households,industriesandothers.Growingwaterstress
    CHAPTER10
    The principal benets
    of wastewater
    treatment are
    avoidance of the costs
    of pollution and of the
    use of contaminated
    water by downstream
    users, such as other
    municipalities,
    industries, farmers and
    the tourism industry.
    WWDR4 281 UNVALUEDWATERLEADSTOANUNCERTAINFUTURE
    inmanyregionsisleadingtoagreaterappreciationof
    theeconomicvalueofwastewater.Therecyclingofmu-
    nicipalwastewaterforagriculture,urbanlandscaping,
    industrialcooling,groundwaterrecharge,restoringenvi-
    ronmentalowsandwetlands,andforfurtherurbancon-
    sumptionisincreasingrapidlyinwater-scarcecountries.
    Animportantpartofwaterinfrastructureconsistsof
    naturalsystemssuchasforests,catchmentsandwet-
    landsthatstorewater,regulateitsowandhelptopre-
    serveitsquality.Ifthesenaturalsystemsaredestroyed
    orcompromised,theirfunctionshavetobereplacedby
    man-madefacilities,oftenathighcost.Inoneexample,
    theoodattenuationfunctionsoftheMuthurajawela
    Marsh,apeatboginSriLanka,werevaluedatUS$5
    millionannually,inrelationtothemitigativeoravertive
    spendingthatwouldbeneededifitwerelost.Thesame
    istruefortheNakivuboSwampinUganda,whichruns
    throughthecapitalcityKampalaandhasakeyrolein
    assuringurbanwaterquality.Alargeamountofuntreat-
    edhouseholdsewageandtheefuentofthecityssew-
    ageworksenterstheswamppriortopassingintoLake
    Victoria,closetotheintakeofthewaterworkssupply-
    ingthecitywithdrinkingwater.Theswampprovides
    naturalltrationandpuricationofthewastewater:
    theinfrastructurerequiredtoprovideasimilarlevelof
    wastewatertreatmentwouldcostuptoUS$2millionper
    year(EmertonandBos,2004).
    Contrarytothecommonviewthatwaterandirriga-
    tionareuneconomicinvestments,acomparisonofthe
    (weighted)averageeconomicratesofreturnforboth
    watersupplyandirrigationprojectsinsub-Saharan
    Africashowsthattheycomparefavourablyinrelation
    toothertypesofinfrastructure(Table10.1).
    10.2Valuingwater
    10.2.1Watersmanifoldvalue
    Thebenetsofthewaterservicesmentionedabove
    arebasedontheeconomicvalueofwaterinitsvarious
    statesanduses.Valuingthemultiplesocio-economic
    benetsofwaterisessentialtoimprovingthedeci-
    sionsofgovernments,internationalorganizations,the
    donorcommunity,civilsocietyandotherstakeholders.
    Conversely,afailuretofullyvalueallthebenetsof
    waterinitsdiferentusesisarootcauseofthepoliti-
    calneglectofwateranditsmismanagement.Itleads
    toinsufcientappreciationoftheimportanceofwater;
    suboptimallevelsofinvestmentinwaterinfrastruc-
    ture;andthelowpriorityaccordedtowaterpolicyin
    countrydevelopmentprogrammes,povertyreduction
    strategiesandotherpolicies.Finally,itplaysasigni-
    cantpartinthefailuretomeetinternationalsocio-eco-
    nomicobjectives.
    Valuingwatershouldfacilitatewaterresourcesand
    servicestobeaddedorcompared,orallocatedto
    maximizesocialwelfare.However,notallthebenets
    ofwatercanbequantiedorexpressedinmonetary
    terms.Therearemanylimitationstothemethods
    developedtoderivetheeconomicvalueofwaterin
    itsdiferentuses:somearecontroversial,havehigh
    datarequirements,arecomplex,orrequiretechnical
    andeconomicskills.Valuationisaneclecticdiscipline,
    withdiferenttechniquesfordiferentusesandpolicy
    purposes.Butalthoughtheproductionofacompre-
    hensivesystemofeconomicvaluesforwaterisan
    over-ambitioustask,someusefulresultshavebeen
    producedinspeciclocalorregionalcontextsfrom
    multi-stakeholderprocessesinvolvingactorswithdif-
    ferentsubjectivevaluations.
    Suchpoliticalandtechnicaldialoguescanleadto
    broadagreement,whichisusefulforsettingpoli-
    cies.However,diferentgroupsofpeoplevaluewater
    indiferentwaysandeventhesamegroupspercep-
    tionscanalterasconditionschange.Mossetal.(2003,
    p.46)arguethatthecomplexityoftheinterfaces
    betweenmanydiferentstakeholdersandtheten-
    dencyforwatertoraisestrongemotionsfrequently
    leadsvaluediferencestobecomevaluedivides.
    Thesecanleadtopolarizationthatblocksdialogueand
    TABLE 10.1
    Economicratesofreturnforinfrastructureprojectsinsub-SaharanAfrica(%)
    Railway
    rehabilitation
    Irrigation Road
    rehabilitation
    Road
    upgrades
    Road
    maintenance
    Power
    generation
    Water
    supply
    5.1 22.2 24.2 17.0 138.8 18.9 23.3
    Source: AICD (2010, p. 71).
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 282
    preventsreasonablegovernancesolutions.Improved
    understandingofthevaluediferencescanhelpiden-
    tifycommonalitiesandinterdependenciesthatmaybe
    usefulfornegotiatedagreements.
    AccordingtotheOECD(2010),thelackofacoher-
    entanalysisofinvestmentbenetsacrosstheentire
    valuechainofwaterandsanitationisduetothefrag-
    mentedmarketsinwhichwaterservicesaredelivered.
    Althoughministriesareresponsibleforsettingoverall
    policydirection,investmentsaremadebyutilitiesand
    agenciesoperatingatadecentralizedlevel,ofteninan
    uncoordinatedmanner.Asaresult,thebenets(and
    costs)ofawiderrangeofinvestmentsacrossthefull
    valuechainofwatermanagementandservicesdonot
    receiveadequateassessment.
    10.2.2Economicvaluesofwaterindiferentuses
    TheDublinStatementonWaterandSustainable
    Development(1992)statesthatwaterhasaneco-
    nomicvalueinallitscompetingusesandshouldbe
    recognisedasaneconomicgood.Adistinctionneeds
    tobemadebetweenthevalue,costandpriceofwa-
    ter,whichareoftenverydiferentfromeachother.The
    economicvalueofwaterisparticularlyapparentinsit-
    uationsofwaterscarcity.Waterhasdiferenteconomic
    valuesinitsdiferentuses.Ithasaneconomiccostof
    supply,whichalsovariesindiferentsituationsandfor
    diferentpurposes.Waterprovidedtoaparticularuser,
    inaspecicplace,atacertaintimehasaneconomic
    benet,butalsoentailsaneconomiccost.Therela-
    tionshipbetweenthespecicbenetandthespecic
    costisthebasisoftheeconomicjusticationforsup-
    plyingthatuser.Finally,thepriceofwaterisanancial
    orscaltransactionbetweentheproviderandtheuser,
    whichisoftencloselycontrolledbypublicauthorities,
    andoftenbearslittlerelationtoeitheritsvalueinspe-
    cicuses,oritscostofsupply.
    Allocatingwaterpurelyonthebasisofsucheconomic
    principlesiscomplicatedanddifculttoapplyinprac-
    tice(Turneretal.,2004;Winpenny,1997).However,
    thebasicconceptofcomparingthecostsandbenets
    ofsupplyingwaterinspeciclocationsandtospecic
    categoriesofusersisfundamentaltowaterpolicy,es-
    peciallyinsituationsofgrowingstress.Thisrequiresan
    estimation,howeverapproximate,ofthevalueofthe
    waterinitsvariousstatesanduses.
    Themethodsofvaluingwaterareeclecticandde-
    pendonthesectorconcerned,thetypeofuseand
    theinformationavailable(Winpennyetal.,2010).
    Householdconsumptioniscommonlyvaluedusingevi-
    denceofwillingnesstopay(WTP)fromdirectsurveys
    thatmakeuseofstructuredquestionnairesorchoice
    experimentssurveytechniques.Thisstatedvalueap-
    proachcanbesupplementedandcross-checkedby
    evidenceofrevealedpreference,suchasinferringus-
    erspreferencesfromtheirchangesinconsumption
    followingatarifchange,orbyestimatingtheiractual
    expenditure.
    Irrigationwaterusecanbevaluedineitheroftwo
    diferentways.Themarginalproductivityofwa-
    ter(theextravalueofoutputthatcanbeobtained
    fromadditionalapplicationsofwater)canbeesti-
    matedfromchangesinyieldsduringcrop-watertrials.
    Alternatively,themorecommonapproach(thenet-
    backmethod)istoderivethevalueofwaterfrom
    farmbudgetdataastheresidualafterallothercosts
    havebeenallowedfor.Thislattermethodmakesthe
    crudeassumptionthattheresidual,orunexplained,
    farmsurplusisdueentirelytowater,ratherthanto
    otherfactors.
    Industrialwatervaluationposesagreaterproblem.For
    manyindustrial(andcommercial)enterprises,water
    constitutesasmallpartoftheirtotalcosts.Itwould
    thereforebemisleadingtousetheresidualmethod,as
    forirrigation,andattributethewholeresidualsurplus
    towater.Muchindustrialbulkwaterisself-supplied
    fromwellsandrivers.Manyrmsrecyclewaterby
    treatingandreusingwasteows.Onevaluationap-
    proachregardsthecostofrecyclingastheupperlimit
    onindustrialWTP,becausermswouldrationallyrecy-
    cleratherthanbuyinabovethislevel.
    Theaboveusesallinvolvetheabstractionofwater.
    However,wateralsohasin-streamvaluesforwaste
    assimilationanddilution,ushingsediment,thefunc-
    tioningofecologicalsystems,navigation,andvari-
    ouskindsofrecreation(watersports,sight-seeing,
    shing,rambling,etc.).Variousvaluationoptionscan
    beappliedtotheseuses.Often,thesenaturalfunc-
    tionsofwater(assimilation,dilution,ushing)canbe
    comparedwiththeextracostofalternatives(dredg-
    ing,treatment).Thevalueofwaterfornavigationcan
    beimputedfromitscostadvantageoverthenext
    cheapesttransportmode(e.g.railways).Thevalue
    ofwaterforrecreationandecologicalpurposes(the
    maintenanceoflowowregimesandwetlands)is
    generallyestimatedbyWTPortravelcost
    4
    surveys.
    CHAPTER10
    WWDR4 283 UNVALUEDWATERLEADSTOANUNCERTAINFUTURE
    Itisincreasinglycommontousethebenet transfer
    approachtoderiveempiricalvaluesfortheseenvi-
    ronmentalefects.Asthetermsuggests,evidence
    istransferredfromsituationswhereitisavailable
    tolocationsandprojectswhichseemtobebroadly
    comparable.
    5

    Hydropowerwaterusageisnormallyvaluedaccord-
    ingtothecostadvantageofhydrooverthermalpower
    andotheralternativewaysofgeneratingelectricity.
    Inthis,asinothercases,itisimportanttocompare
    likewithlike,andtobeclearaboutthebasisofthe
    estimate.
    6

    Therehavebeenanumberofcomprehensivestudies
    oftheeconomicvalueofwaterindiferentuses,anda
    numberofmoreselectiveexercises.Theearlieststud-
    iesusedatafromtheUSA,butmorerecentstudiesfrom
    otherregionsbroadlyendorsetheirresults.Table10.2
    indicatestheresultsofarecentcomparativeUSstudy.
    TheevidencepresentedinTurneretal.(2004,p.91)
    showsthatthevalueofwaterforirrigated agriculture
    ofmanylow-valuecrops(typicallyfoodgrainsand
    animalfodder)isverylow.Bythesametoken,wa-
    tervaluescanbehighforhigh-valuecrops(e.g.fruit,
    vegetables,owers)wherethewaterisreliable.The
    sameistrueforsupplementaryirrigationtakenasin-
    suranceagainstdrought.Theseresultsaresupported
    bytheactualpricespaidforwaterwherewatermar-
    ketsexist.Inshort,thevalueattachedtoirrigation
    waterdependsheavilyonhowreliableitisandonthe
    typeofcropbeingproduced.Valuestendtobehigh-
    erforprivatelyownedgroundwaterthanforpublicly
    suppliedsurfacewaterschemes.
    Householdvaluesarerelativelyhigh,butthisisnota
    homogeneouscategory.Householdwaterusedfor
    trulyessentialneedssuchasdrinking,cookingand
    basichygienecomprisesonlyaminorpartoftypical
    dailyuse;therestisusedforlifestyleorproductive
    purposes.Inafuentregionswithawarmclimatea
    highproportionofwaterisusedforoutdoorpurposes
    suchaswateringgardensandlawns,washingcarsand
    llingswimmingpools.Householdstendtoplacea
    highervalueonindoorthanoutdooruses,thoughthis
    wouldnotapplywherewaterisusedforproductive
    purposes.Insomesocieties,muchofthewateravail-
    abletohouseholdsisusedforgrowingcropsandfeed-
    inglivestock(inotherwords,itissuppliedformultiple
    usepurposes).Inpractice,thevaluationofwaterfor
    TABLE 10.2
    EconomicvalueofwateruseintheUSA:US$in1995pricesperacre-footofwater
    Average Median Minimum Maximum No. of
    observations
    In situ uses
    Waste disposal 3 1 0 12 23
    Recreational and habitat 48 5 0 2 642 211
    Navigation 146 10 0 483 7
    Hydropower 25 21 1 113 57
    Note: Acre-foot is the amount of water entailed in covering one acre to a depth of one foot. In metric terms, an acre-foot corresponds to
    0.1233 m
    3
    per ha.
    Source: Turner et al. (2004, table 9, p. 92).
    Household water
    used for truly essential
    needs such as drinking,
    cooking and basic
    hygiene comprises only
    a minor part of typical
    daily use; the rest is
    used for lifestyle or
    productive purposes.
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 284
    householduseiscommonlytakentobeequivalentto
    theaveragetarif,whichusuallyunderestimatesthe
    economiccostofsupplyandignorestheconsumer
    surplus
    7
    involved.
    Thevalueofwaterwithregardtoitsenvironmental uses
    isnotadequatelyrepresentedinthestudiesdescribed
    above,whichrelatemainlytouse values,inparticular
    recreation.Infact,recreationalvaluesshowgreatvari-
    ation,dependingonthevisitationrate,thelocationof
    thesite,thequalityofwaterandthetypeofrecreation
    (withshingandshootinglicencesattractinghighfees
    insomecountries).Failuretoaccountforthesebenets
    inwatervaluationcanresultininefcientwateralloca-
    tiondecisions.Valuationsofthenon-useenvironmen-
    talbenetsofwateremployarangeoftechniquesand
    produceawidespectrumofresults,althoughtypical
    valuestendtofallinbetweenagriculturalandmunici-
    pal/householdlevels(Turneretal.,2004,p.92).
    10.3Usingbenetsandvaluestoinform
    waterpolicies
    Asenseoftheeconomicvalueofwaterinitsdifer-
    entstatesandusesisanecessarypartofwaterman-
    agement.Thisistrueinroutinemanagementofriver
    basinsandtheoperationofmulti-purposestorage
    schemes,wheredecisionsonallocationshavetobe
    madeinreal-time,day-to-daysituations.Italsoap-
    pliestoseasonaldroughtresponsesandevenmoreso
    tostrategicdecisionsonadaptationtogrowingwater
    stressandsupply-demandimbalances.
    Inafunctioningwatermarket,economicvalueswill
    establishthemselvesthroughtradingprices.However,
    watermarketsarecharacterizedbyvariousdegreesof
    imperfectcompetition,externalities,uncertainty,asym-
    metricinformationanddistributionalimpacts.These
    characteristicsafecttheappropriatenessofmarket
    pricesforuseasmeasuresofvalue(Salibaetal.,1987).
    Asaresult,mostobservedmarketpricesdeviatefrom
    anidealmeasureofwillingnesstopay,andmayserve
    onlyasaroughindicatorofthemarginalvalueofaddi-
    tionstoregionalwatersupplyiftheadditionalvolume
    ofwatermadeavailableissmallrelativetotheregions
    totalsupply.
    Amorecompleteanalysisofdiferentialwatervalues
    andmarketfailuresisdesirableindecisionstoallow
    forandregulatewatertrading,forexample,whenitis
    inthepublicinteresttoallowtradingbetweenrights
    holders.Tradingwaterrightsamongfarmersduring
    Australiasrecenteight-yeardroughtgreatlymitigated
    itsimpactonagricultureintheMurrayDarlingBasin.
    Watertransfersfromlowtohighervaluepurposes
    meantthata70%fallintheavailabilityofwateronly
    ledtoa30%fallinthevalueofproduction(Sadofand
    Muller,2009).
    Usingwatervaluestoinformmanagementandalloca-
    tionpoliciesdoesnotimplythatmarketsshouldhave
    thelastwordinsuchdecisions.Asisthecasewith
    othersectors,themarketcanbeagoodservantbut
    apoormaster.Publicauthoritiesneedtointerveneto
    establishregulationsdesignedtopreventtransferof
    negativeexternalities,ensureadequatesuppliesofwa-
    terandsanitationservicestosatisfybasicneeds,and
    safeguardpublichealth.
    Thevalueofadequatewatersuppliestothenaturalen-
    vironmentisanotheraspectthatrequiresactivepublic
    intervention.IntheMurrayDarlingBasingrowingarid-
    ityisincreasingwaterlossesfromevaporation,which
    threatenswater-dependentecosystems,whoseneeds
    havetobeweighedalongsidethoseofotheruses
    (YoungandMcColl,2009).
    10.4Allocatingwaterunderconditionsof
    riskanduncertainty
    Recognitionandacceptanceoftheeconomicval-
    ueofwaterwilladdaneconomicdimensiontothe
    social,ethical,publichealthandequitydimensions
    ofallocatingwater.Thelatterdimensionsbythem-
    selveshavefailedtogeneratetherequiredinvest-
    mentsinwatertomeetsocio-economicdevelopment
    objectives.
    Theallocationofscarcewatertocompetingusesliesat
    theheartofwatermanagement.Inmanypartsofthe
    world,increasingpressuresonwaterresourcesare
    leadingtoashortageofwatertosatisfyallneeds.In
    general,fourinterrelatedprocessesdrivewaterstresses:
    populationgrowth;economicgrowth;increaseddemand
    forfood,feedandenergy(ofwhichbiofuelisone
    source);andincreasedclimatevariability.Choicesmust
    bemadeabouthowtoshare,allocateandreallocate
    theincreasinglyscarcewaterwithinsectors,from
    oneusergrouptoanotherandbetweensectors.Such
    dilemmasinvokedebatesabouttheprinciplesthat
    shouldguidewaterallocations,andhowaccessand
    equity,economicefciency,sustainabilityandexisting
    customarynormsandvaluescanbereconciledin
    speciccontexts.
    CHAPTER10
    WWDR4 285 UNVALUEDWATERLEADSTOANUNCERTAINFUTURE
    Typically,waterallocationsaretheoutcomeofdia-
    loguebetweeninterestedstakeholders.Suchparties
    needtobuildconvergenceintheirvalueperspectives
    (Figures10.2and10.3).
    Waterallocationembracespracticesthatvarygreatly
    inscaleandduration.Theyinclude:thegrantofwater
    rightsorpermitstolargeirrigationschemesexpected
    tolastfordecadesorevenindenitely,whileefective
    andbenecialusecontinues;hourlyallocationsched-
    ulesbetweenirrigators;short-termreservoirreleases
    tocoverpeakdemandsintheelectricitygrid;and
    schedulesforrationingwaterbetweenindustries,es-
    sentialservices,powergeneration,farmersandhouse-
    holdsintheeventofdrought.
    Therearefourmainaspectsofawaterallocation
    system:
    Water entitlements(formalorinformal)conferon
    theholdertherighttowithdrawwaterandapplyit
    inagenerallyrecognizedbenecialuse(LeQuesne
    etal.,2007).Apersonsentitlementtowithdrawwa-
    termustbeconsideredlegitimatebyothers.
    Water allocationisaprocesswherebytheavailable
    waterissharedamong,anddistributedto,legitimate
    claimants(LeQuesneetal.,2007).
    Water service delivery (or control)isthephysicalact
    ofsupplyingwatertothosewhoareentitledtoitin
    suchamannerthattheycanefectivelyuseit.
    Water useisanydeliberateapplicationofwatertoa
    speciedpurpose(Perry,2007).
    Waterentitlements,allocation,servicedeliveryand
    usearedynamicallylinkedandconstrainedbythe
    amountofwaterthatisavailableatspecictimes.
    Theuseofwatercreatesexpectationsofsimilarusein
    thefuture.Ifitiscontinuedovertimeanentitlement
    emerges,whichmaybedifculttoignoreorclaim
    back;yettheamountofwateravailableisproneto
    naturalandman-madeuctuationsandchanges.
    Theincreasinglyvariablehydrologicalcyclemakes
    theavailabilityoftheresourcemoreuncertainboth
    intimeandgeographically.Demographic,tech-
    nological,economicandpoliticalfutures,along
    withchanginghumanvalues,addadditionallong-
    termuncertainties.Itiscrucialtothereforeidentify
    FIGURE 10.2
    Partiesinthewaterdialoguespace
    Source: Adapted from Moss et al. (2003, p. 37).
    Manufacturers
    Dialogue Space:
    Where stakeholders
    meet to ensure there
    are no missing
    conversations
    Environment Organizations
    Utilities
    (Public and Private)
    Government and
    Community
    Groups
    Water Quality
    Regulators
    Farmers and
    Food Processors
    Labour Unions Media, Academia +?
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 286
    allocationmechanismsthatcanefectivelyandex-
    iblydealwithchange,uncertaintiesandtheaccom-
    panyingrisks.
    Theabilitytoestimatefuturesurfaceandground-
    wateravailabilityatdiferenttimescalesandthe
    inabilitytopredictfuturewaterdemandsanduses
    areimportantfactors.Arguably,thelargestuncer-
    taintystemsfromtheriskoflackofadaptationon
    thepartofinstitutionstorealissuesthatneedtobe
    addressed,andthepossibilityofwatermanagement
    organizationstakingthewrongdecisions.
    Giventheseuncertainties,waterallocationproblems
    implyfourmainchallenges:
    1.Howshouldwaterbeallocated/reallocatedintimes
    ofshortageandtorespondtochangesinnatural
    andeconomicconditions?
    2.Whatsolutionsareavailablewhererightshave
    beenover-allocatedandcannotsatisfyallholders
    intimesofdrought,orwheretheavailabilityofwa-
    terfromaparticularsourceissubjecttolong-term
    decline?
    CHAPTER10
    FIGURE 10.3
    Valueperspectivesinthewaterdialoguespace
    Source: Adapted from Moss et al. (2003, p. 36).
    Products and
    Products Use
    Dialogue Space:
    Clarifying value
    perspectives and
    nding common
    ground through
    discussion
    Environmental
    Economic
    Political Public Health
    Gender
    Social
    Others?
    3.Howcanwaterinstitutionsevolvetokeeppace
    withandanticipatechange?
    4.Whatinstitutionalmeasurescanservetomanage
    risingtensionsthatformthesourceofdisputesand
    conicts,andhowcanthesetensionsbetrans-
    formedintoformsofcooperation?
    Efectivestakeholderengagementisnecessaryto
    makewaterallocationdecisionstransparentandfair.
    Improvingtheinformationavailabletowaterusersis
    essentialbutnotsufcienttoenablethemtomake
    thebestdecisions.Routinestakeholderconsultation
    isnotthesameastrueempowerment,whereacom-
    munitytakescontrolofitswatermanagement,leading
    tomorelegitimateandcost-efectivesolutionswith
    betterchancesofimplementation.Fortunately,the
    expertsconsultedundertheWWAPscenariosproject
    (seeChapter9)foreseethatmoreinformationwillbe
    madepublicinthefuture,andthatcitizenparticipa-
    tionwillbemorewidelypractised.
    WWDR4 287 UNVALUEDWATERLEADSTOANUNCERTAINFUTURE

    Notes
    1 Theexceptionisconsumptiveuseofwater,whichevaporates
    fromlakes,reservoirs,treesandcrops.(Thisincludesgreen
    water,whichtheWWDR3[WWAP,2009,p.161]denesassoil
    moisturegeneratedfromrainfallthatinltratesthesoilandis
    availableforuptakebyplantsandevapotranspiration.Green
    waterisnon-productiveifevaporatedfromsoilandopenwater
    intheformofrainfallingdirectlyontotheland.)Freshwater
    dischargedintothesea,orinahighlycontaminatedform,is
    alsoefectivelyconsumedinthesensethatisnotavailablefor
    furtherbenecialuse,exceptathighcost.
    2 InalettertotheFinancialTimes(7June,2010),JonLane,
    DirectoroftheWaterSupplyandSanitationCollaborative
    Council,referstothefactthatmoreAfricansnowownmobile
    phonesthantoilets.Headds,however,thatinsomecountries,
    atoiletisthenewmobilephonesomethingthatshows
    youvemadeit.Itisreportedthat,undertheTotalCommunity
    SanitationProgramme,familiesincertaincommunitieshave
    decidedtocategoricallyrejectmarriageproposalscoming
    totheirdaughtersfromvillageswhereopendefecationis
    practised(Kar,2003).Thisexempliestherecognitionofaccess
    tosanitationasasignofhealthandprosperity.
    3 Thehighestbeing191.05.
    4 Thetravelcostvaluationmethodinfersthevaluationthat
    visitorsplaceonafreeamenityfromtheamountoftimeand
    expensetheyincuringettingtothesite.
    5 AnumberofresultsarereviewedinTurneretal.(2004).
    6 Ifashort-termapproachistaken,anassumptionismadethat
    capacityisxedforbothalternativestobecompared.Inthe
    longterm,newinvestmentscanbemadeineither.Marginaland
    averagecostswillalsodiferforbothalternatives.
    7 Thediferencebetweenwhatconsumerswouldbewillingto
    pay,andwhattheyactuallyhavetopay.

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    CHAPTER10
    PhilippeBourseiller
    CHAPTER 11
    Transforming water management
    institutions to deal with change

    Authors HannahEdwards,DanielP.Loucks,AnthonyTurtonandJamesWinpenny
    Contributors RichardConnor,UriShamirandJosG.Timmerman

    All individuals, agencies and institutions involved in water resources management are
    very aware that the impacts of decisions they make may not turn out to be the ones they
    hoped for. Factors that inuence the economic, environmental and social benets or costs
    resulting from any management decision are not known with certainty. This uncertainty
    can result in some degree of vulnerability just as much as it may result in higher levels of
    reliability or resilience. Water managers and their institutions need to recognize the potential
    consequences of their decisions in uncertain environments, environments where the
    uncertainty is changing in uncertain ways.
    Vulnerability assessments of water resources systems constitute an important basis for water
    management under conditions of uncertainty and risk.
    Leaders in government, the private sector and civil society make most of the important
    decisions impacting water. It is therefore imperative that they understand the role of water
    and incorporate this information into their range of decisions. Important instruments
    to support decision-making include forecasts and scenarios, and combining a range of
    forecasts of possible futures allows for more robust decision-making. Water management
    institutions must be created or transformed to reect this approach.
    WWDR4 291 TRANSFORMINGWATERMANAGEMENTINSTITUTIONSTODEALWITHCHANGE
    11.1Introduction
    Sustainabledevelopmentunderconditionsofinher-
    entuncertaintyrequiresaparadigmshift.Keyfac-
    torsincludetheneedforanincreasingrangeofinput
    dataandthecapacitytoadapttogrowingpressure
    ontheresource.Thiswillrequiredeliberateefortsto
    buildrobustnessandresilienceintothemanagement
    structuresofwaterprojectsasamatterofroutine.As
    showninChapter5,suchfundamentalchangesare
    likelytooccurinthenon-structuralelementsofwa-
    termanagementmeasures.Inaninherentlycomplex
    world,leadersingovernment,privatesectorandcivil
    societyoutsidethewaterboxtakemostoftheimpor-
    tantdecisionsimpactingwater.Itisthereforeimpor-
    tanttodevelopnewwaystoprovidespecializedinfor-
    mationtodecision-makersingovernment,aswellasto
    thoseafectedbythedecisionstheytake(Falkenmark,
    2007).Thisrequiresaformalstructuringofrelation-
    shipsbetweentechnicalspecialists,government
    decision-makersandsocietyasawhole(seeFigure11.3,
    withexplanationlaterinthechapter)(Hattinghetal.,
    2007;Turtonetal.,2007a,b).
    Recentchangesinglobalclimate,nancialmarkets,
    landuseandconsumptionpatterns,haveincreasedthe
    uncertaintysurroundingfuturemanagementofwater
    resources.Thisuncertaintyisinherenttothesystem
    itself,andrelatestotheinterconnectednessofvarious
    systemshydrological,nancial,socialandecologi-
    calaswellasagenerallackofknowledgeconcerning
    howanecosystemmightrespondtothenewdemands
    beingmadeofit.Somenowcallforachangeinthink-
    ingawayfromseparateecosystemsandsocialsys-
    temstowardssocio-ecologicalsystems(SESs)instead
    (BurnsandWeaver,2008).Inthisregarditisaccepted
    thathumanimpactissosignicantthateconomicac-
    tivitiesandassociatedsocialendeavoursarenolonger
    seenasbeingseparatefromecosystemsinstead
    social-ecologicalsystemshaveco-evolved.Thisiscon-
    sistentwiththeemergingnotionoftheAnthropocene
    asapotentiallynewgeologicalepoch(Zalasiewiczet
    al.,2008).Ratherthanplanningforonedenedfu-
    ture,watermanagementagenciesincreasinglyneed
    toimprovetheirmethodsofassessmentinorderto
    respondtoarangeofpossiblefutures,allofwhichare
    uncertainbutpresentvaryingdegreesofprobability.
    Majorengineeringissuesacrossallpossiblefutureswill
    includeplanning,designingandoperatingsustainable,
    reliable,resilientandnon-vulnerablewaterresource
    systems,embeddedwithinanincreasinglyuncertain
    setofdrivers.Theultimateaimshouldbetoinculcate
    amulti-disciplinaryapproachtothedevelopmentof
    guidelinesandregulationsforwaterresourcesplan-
    ning,integratingscience,economicdecisioncriteria,
    andmonitoringandevaluationprocesses,allofwhich
    shouldembracearangeoffuturerealities.
    AsshowninChapter5,watermanagementhastradi-
    tionallybeentop-downinorientation. Adaptive water
    management,whichcanbethoughtofasthemanage-
    mentofwaterresourcesunderconditionsofinher-
    entuncertainty,linksthistoabottom-upapproach.
    Contemporaryexperienceincreasinglyshowsthata
    combinationofthetwoapproachesisbestsuitedto
    thecorechallengeofdealingwithuncertaintyandrisk.
    Atop-downapproach,beingmorestrategicinorienta-
    tion,canprovideanoverallpicture,oferingageneral
    frameworkwithinwhichawatermanagementactivity
    orprogrammecanbedevelopedandimplemented.A
    bottom-upapproach,beingmoreoperationalinori-
    entation,canprovideanaccuratepictureofrelevant
    on-the-groundwaterissues,needsanduncertainties
    experiencedbyawiderangeofactorsandstakehold-
    ers.Enthusiasmandsupportforaddressingwater-
    relatedissuesareoftenbestdevelopedatthelocal
    level,asthisisclosesttothepointofactualimpact,
    therebyfacilitatingacceptanceofneededactions,
    providedthatitisadequatelypositionedandhasthe
    capacitytoefectivelydealwiththeissues.
    Developingandimplementinganefectivewaterre-
    sourcesmanagementprogrammeideallyincorporates
    bothendsofthismanagementspectrum,speci-
    callyastheemphasisshiftsfrombuildinginfrastruc-
    turetobuildinginstitutions(Figure11.1).However,the
    relativeimportanceofeachapproachwillvaryunder
    diferingsocial,political,economicandenvironmen-
    talconditions.Amajorchallengefordealingwith
    inherentuncertaintiesandrisksistheintroductionof
    amoreadaptiveapproachtomanagement,irrespec-
    tiveofwhetherintegratedwaterresourcesmanage-
    ment(IWRM)isadoptedasaframework.Adaptive
    managementisbasedonspecicprinciplesand
    approaches.
    11.1.1IntroducingadaptivemanagementtoIWRM
    IWRMisagloballyacceptedmanagementframework
    forachievingsustainabledevelopment(Ashtonetal.,
    2006).IWRMhasbeendenedinmanywaysandthe
    mostwidelyknowndenitionhasitnotasatoolbut
    asaprocess.Furthermore,IWRMisameans,notan
    endinitself,andtheprocesshasbeenverydifcultto
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 292
    implementindevelopingcountries,despitesomepro-
    gress,asdescribedinChapter1(Section1.3.3).
    GovernanceandIWRMaretheprincipalmeansforre-
    solvingcompetitionamongmulti-sectoraldemands
    onarelativelynitewaterresourcesbase.Eachsector
    fashionsitsownsetofmanagementprinciples,rules
    andincentivesthataremaximized,ofteninconict
    withoneanother.Deningsocialrisktoleranceand
    servicereliabilityispartofasocialcontracttobede-
    terminedthroughacontinuingdialoguewithineach
    society(Nyambeetal.,2007),whetheritbefornew
    drugs,nuclearpowerplantsorwaterinfrastructure.
    IWRMiscontextuallyshapedthroughthisprocess
    toencompassthediferentdimensionsofsustain-
    ability(ecological,biophysical,economic,socialand
    institutional),butitisalsooftenpath-dependent(see
    Section11.4.4).Thus,efectiveIWRMisknowledge-
    intensiveandneedstobeadaptiveifitistocontinue
    torespondtoexogenouschangesoverwhichitgenerally
    haslittledirectcontrol.However,itshouldalsobe
    notedthatadaptationcanalsobeidentiedand
    adoptedwithoutIWRMastheunderlyingprocess.
    Adaptivemanagementisaprocessthatpromotes
    exibledecision-makinginthefaceofuncertaintiesas
    outcomesfrommanagementactionsandotherevents
    becomebetterunderstood(USNationalResearch
    Council,2004).Thisreportdescribesadaptiveman-
    agementasanapproachforkeepingupwithfuture
    changesandmakingperiodicmodicationsinpast
    decisionsinresponsetothoseunpredictablechanges.
    Itisapplicabletosituationsinwhichfuturesocial,eco-
    nomic,climaticortechnologicalconditionsthatinu-
    encetheoutcomeofanydecisionscannotbeforecast
    withcertainty.
    Absolutelyessentialforefectiveadaptivemanage-
    mentisacontinuingawarenessofthechangesthat
    aretakingplaceovertime,aswellastheresponses
    stemmingfrompastdecisions.Monitoring,data-
    basemanagementandcommunicationareimpor-
    tantcomponentsofanyadaptivemanagementap-
    proach.Itisanapproachthatislinkedtoinformation
    aboutout-of-the-water-boxdriverssuchaseconomic
    growthdata,populationtrendsandchangesinfood
    consumptionpatterns,miningimpactsanddemands
    forenergy.Adaptivemanagementisapplicableto
    manyaspectsofwatermanagement,andnolessso
    forrespondingtooodanddroughtconditionsand
    theirimpactsonfoodproduction,propertydamage,
    andhumandislocationandothersocialimpacts.To
    CHAPTER11
    FIGURE 11.1
    Conceptualmodelillustratingthegeneraltrendofchangeaswaterresourcemanagersadapttoincludea
    widerrangeofdriversandissues
    Source: Turton et al. (2007a, g. 1.1, p. 5, with kind permission of Springer Science+Business Media).
    Demand-side
    options
    Centralizedmanagement
    Decentralizedmanagement
    Supply-side
    options
    Developing
    infrastructure
    (rstorderfocus)
    Developing
    institutions
    (secondorder
    focus)
    C
    B
    A
    WaterisaSocialand
    anEconomicResource
    Waterisnotan
    EconomicResource
    WaterisanEconomic
    Resource
    WWDR4 293
    efectivelyaccommodatetheprecautionaryprinciple
    (seeSection11.2.3),togetherwiththebroaderaimsof
    sustainabledevelopment,itisnecessarytoconsider
    thefullrangeofdriversthatimpactonwaterinfra-
    structureunderawiderangeofinherentlyuncertain
    supplyanddemandscenarios.Thisbuildsrobust-
    nessandresilienceintowaterprojectsbyproviding
    exibility.
    11.2Principlesformanagingwaterunderrisk
    anduncertainty
    Inordertomeetthegoalssetbydecision-makers,wa-
    termanagementmustdealwiththeuncertaintyand
    variabilitythatcharacterizecurrentchangesinthecon-
    temporaryworld.LempertandGroves(2010)givean
    indicationofthecoreprinciplesneededtoachievethis
    objective:
    Seekrobustprojectsorstrategies,andsubstan-
    tiallyrevisethecurrenteconomicandoptimiza-
    tiondecisionrulesroutinelyusedinwaterresources
    management.
    Employadaptivestrategiestoachieverobustness;
    near-termstrategiesshouldbeexplicitlydesignedto
    berevisedasbetterinformationbecomesavailable.
    Usecomputer-aidedprocessestoengageinin-
    teractiveexplorationofhypotheses,optionsand
    possibilities.
    Theseprinciplesareincreasinglybeingadvocatedby
    waterresourcepractitionersandacademicians,andare
    manifestingastechnologicalinnovations,engineering
    designchanges,multi-objectivewatershedplanning,
    publicparticipation,regulatory,nancialandpolicy
    incentives.Oneexampleistheemergenceofawa-
    teraccountingframeworkinAustralia(seeChapter6),
    designedspecicallytointegratereportingacrossnor-
    mallydisconnectedsectorsandbureaucracies(AASB,
    2011;GodfreyandChalmers,2011).Improvementsin
    existingapproachestoforecastingarebeingmadeus-
    ingalargenumberofimperfectbutpossiblefuture
    scenarios.Theseenableanalystsanddecision-makers
    toidentifyaseriesofnearandlong-termactionsthat
    anticipateawiderangeofscenarios,ratherthanrely-
    ingexclusivelyonasingleprobabilisticforecastofone
    possiblefuture.
    Anotherkeyprincipleisassociatedwiththeneedto
    anticipateperiodsofinducedstressbroughtonbythe
    unanticipatedperiodiccoincidenceofhighdemand
    andlowavailability.
    Considersomeoftheoptionsthatmayhelprelieve
    someofthisdroughtstress.Inthelongrun,additional
    infrastructurecanbebuilttoprovideaddedstorage
    capacity,andmeasurescanbetakentoreduceleak-
    ageindiversioncanalsandwaterdistributionsystems,
    increasetheefciencyofirrigationsystems,andpro-
    videadditionalsupplies,perhapsthroughdesalina-
    tion.Alternativesourcesofenergy,suchasgeothermal,
    windandphotovoltaiccells,mightbedevelopedthat
    uselesswaterthanmoreconventionalandmorewa-
    ter-consumingalternatives.Short-termoptionsmight
    includedemandmanagementmeasuresthatreduce
    humanwaterconsumptionandincreasewaterreuse.
    11.2.1Diversicationasacoreprincipleofadaptive
    watermanagement
    Theobjectiveofadaptivewaterresourcemanagement
    istoenhanceresiliencebyimprovingthecapacityto
    reactappropriatelytounanticipatedevents.These
    principles,mostnotablyunderthebroadbannerofre-
    siliencetheory(BurnsandWeaver,2008),arederived
    fromecosystemtheory(Holling,1973),whichargues
    thatdiversesystemscanbettercopewithextreme
    events.Anexampleistheapplicationofportfoliotheo-
    ry,inwhichinvestmentsaremadeinproductsofwide-
    lydiferingriskproles,therebyreducingtheoverall
    riskofthetotalportfolio.Severalstepscanbetaken
    todiversifywatermanagementdecisionsandinvest-
    ments.Forexample,inasemi-aridagriculturalarea
    thatislargelydependentonrainwater,thechallengeis
    todevelopnewdroughtmitigationmeasures,suchas
    increasedstoragecapacityofsurfacewater,increased
    groundwatercapacity,irrigationschemesforlocal
    farmingcommunities,satellitetechnologyforpreci-
    sionfarming,andnewdrought-resistantseeds.Water
    managerswouldneedtoadvisedecision-makerson
    thepolicyframeworksnecessarytopromotesuch
    measures,includingwaterpricingpolicies,subsidiesor
    othernancialincentivemechanisms.
    11.2.2Assessingvulnerability
    Hashimotoetal.(1982)introducedataxonomycapa-
    bleofembracingtheriskanduncertaintyinherentin
    watermanagementperformanceevaluation.Theyuse
    simpleprinciplesthatrepresentasetofdescriptorsto
    characterizethekeycomponentsofthemoretradi-
    tionalengineeringreliabilityanalysis.Inessencethey
    focusonthesensitivityofparametersanddecision
    variablestoconsiderationsofuncertainty,including
    someaspectsofstrategicuncertainty.Thesekeyprin-
    ciplesare(Hashimoto,1982):
    TRANSFORMINGWATERMANAGEMENTINSTITUTIONSTODEALWITHCHANGE
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 294
    Reliability:probabilityofsuccessfuloutcomes
    Robustness:thesatisfactoryperformanceofasystem
    underarangeofscenarios
    Resilience:howquicklyasystemrecoversfromfailure
    (oods,droughts,pollutionspills)
    Vulnerability:howseveretheconsequencesoffailure
    maybe
    Theseveprinciplesexpandthekeycomponentsof
    moretraditionalengineeringreliabilityanalysis,byfo-
    cusingonthesensitivityofparametersanddecision
    variablestoconditionsofuncertainty.Increasingatten-
    tionisbeingpaidtoreducingthestructuralvulnerabil-
    ityofhydraulicsystemsbyenhancingsystemresilience
    asamatterofdesign.Themainquestionishowto
    evaluatesuchstrategies?Traditionally,thishasbeen
    donethroughriskmanagementonthebasisofhistori-
    caldataandstatisticalanalysis,butitisnowapparent
    thatpastexperiencesareincapableofpredictingfu-
    turerealities,becauseofthegrowthofnon-linearcom-
    plexity(Turton,2007).Strategiesarenowbeingselect-
    ed,forexample,usingcostbenet-basedriskanalysis.
    Thechoice of the discount rate ineconomicanalysisis
    animportantdeterminantoftheeconomicviabilityof
    awaterproject,andthelevelofdiscountrateappro-
    priateforprojectswithverylonglives,orwithstrong
    socialorenvironmentalbenets,isthesubjectoflively
    debateinengineeringcircles.Thesameistrueforthe
    levelofacceptable riskoruncertainty,evenifthelatter
    cannotbefullyquantied.Supplementarydecision-
    supporttoolsarerequiredwhenriskscannotbequan-
    tiedorisolated,asisthecasewhenthemanyfactors
    describedinChapter9interact.
    11.2.3Theprecautionaryprinciple
    Theprecautionaryprinciplestatesthatiftheimpacts
    resultingfromanactionorpolicymaycauseharmto
    peopleortheenvironment,intheabsenceofscien-
    ticconsensusonaprobableoutcome,theburden
    ofproofthatanactionorpolicyisnotharmfulfalls
    onthosetakingtheaction.Thisimpliesthatdecision-
    makershaveasocialresponsibilitytoerrontheside
    ofcautionbyprotectingthepublicandtheenviron-
    mentfromexposuretoharm,whereaplausiblerisk
    hasbeenidentied.Thisisincreasinglyevidentin
    corporategovernancestructuresfoundwithincom-
    plexeconomies,inparticularcompanieslistedonvari-
    ousinternationalstockexchanges.Theseconstraints
    canonlyberelaxedifsubsequentscienticndings
    emergeprovidingsoundevidencethatnoharmwill
    occur.
    11.2.4Meetinginformationneedsformanagement
    underuncertaintyandrisk
    Reducingtherisksassociatedwithwaterresource
    management,underconditionsofinherentuncer-
    tainty,requiresabroadersetofinformationinputs.
    Hydrologicaldatahasbeenoftencollectedforspecic
    purposes,suchastheuseanddesignofhydroelectric-
    ityschemes,watersupplysystemsandwatertreat-
    mentplants.However,theneedforadaptiveIWRM
    placesagreaterburdenonthesuppliersofinforma-
    tion.Themovementofwaterintimeandspaceisin
    constantux,butitisgenerallymanagedasifitwere
    astaticresource.Thisapproachwaspossibleinthe
    pastasdemandsontheresourcewerelesscomplex
    (Turton,2008,2010).Today,thewebofwaterdepend-
    enciesisbecomingincreasinglycomplexandthelack
    CHAPTER11
    ThecityofJohannesburginSouthAfricaisunusualin
    thesensethatitlacksariver,lakeorseashore.Instead,it
    straddlesacontinentalwatersheddivideandexistsonly
    becauseofthevastgoldresourcesthatliebeneaththe
    city(Turtonetal.,2006).Thesegold-bearingorebod-
    iesconsistofpyriterichinsulphidesandareoverlainby
    amassivekarstsystem(Buchanan,2010).However,the
    cessationofminingactivitiesiscausingtheresultantvoid
    tollwithhighlyacidicwater,causingsomeanguishto
    propertyowners(Coetzeeetal.,2002,2006).Thisis
    drivingadegreeofuncertaintyandconstitutesaclassic
    exampleofthegrowingcomplexityconfrontingwaterre-
    sourcemanagers.
    Acentralissueiscalculatingtherateofrisingwaterin
    thevoid.Thisrequiresdirectaccessinordertomonitor
    thewaterlevel,however,thecompaniesthatcontrolthe
    shaftsdonotwantthedatatobemadepublicasthey
    seektolimittheirliabilities(Adleretal.,2007).Thispro-
    videsagoodexampleoftheneedfornewtypesofdata
    previouslyconsideredirrelevanttowaterresourceman-
    agement,astheminewaterowsintotheheadwatersof
    twomajorriverbasins,theOrangeandLimpopo,bothof
    whichsustainvastsocio-economicinterestsinatleastve
    diferentdownstreamcountries(Botswana,Mozambique,
    Namibia,SouthAfricaandZimbabwe).Oneofthewater
    resourcemanagementchallengesis,therefore,estab-
    lishinghowtomanagemineclosureinsituationswhere
    limitedlegislationexistsandtheabsenceofcross-secto-
    ralinstitutionallinkagesinhibitstheowofneededdata
    (Strachanetal.,2008;vanTonderandCoetzee,2008).
    BOX 11.1
    MineclosureinSouthAfricaasanexampleof
    growingcomplexity
    WWDR4 295
    ofaccurateinformationposesagrowingchallenge
    fordecision-makers,inparticularregardingtherange
    ofmanagementoptionsincludingwaterconserva-
    tionanddemandmanagementstrategies.Agrowing
    problemistheretentionandmanipulationofdataby
    commercialentitiesinaccessibletothepublicorregu-
    lator(Box11.1).Informationmaybeavailableinexisting
    governmentagenciesand/orwaterdatasources,but
    itmayalsobenecessarytoinitiatemonitoringeforts
    directedtoobtainingsuchdata,whereitdoesnot
    currentlyexist.Monitoringrequiresextensiveinstru-
    mentationandtransmissioncapabilities,anddemands
    humancapacity;itisalsoexpensivetooperateona
    sustainablebasis.Assuch,thereismountingpressure
    inthisspecicarena(Chapter6).
    11.3Approachesformanagingwaterunder
    riskanduncertainty
    Itisusefultodiferentiatebetweenthevulnerabilityof
    awaterresourcessystemandsocietalsusceptibilityto
    economicdisruptionsanddislocation.Thevulnerability
    ofawaterresourcessystemisafunctionofthehydro-
    logicalsensitivityandrelativeperformanceofawater
    managementsystem.ThevulnerabilityoftheSESisa
    functionofthesensitivityofthewaterinfrastructure
    andtheresilienceoftheSES.Thetwoareintimately
    linked;however,thelatterisincreasinglymanifesting
    asgreaterpopulationpressureisplacedonarelatively
    stressedwaterresourcesystem.Theresultisagen-
    erallossofresilienceandareductioninthemarginof
    errorpossiblebeforecatastrophicfailureoccurs.This
    canbestbethoughtofasageneralpropensityto-
    wardsvulnerabilityasgreaterrelianceisplacedonan
    increasinglystressedresource,bothasasourceandas
    asink.
    Themotivatingreasonsformakingmanywaterman-
    agementdecisionsareeconomic,environmentaland
    socialdriversthatarenotcontrolledbywatermanag-
    ers.Similarlytheefectivenessofanywatermanage-
    mentdecisionsmadeislargelydeterminedbythese
    outside-the-water-boxdrivers.Justhowvulnerable
    anydecision-makingorganizationmaybegiventhe
    uncertaintiesofchangingdriversneedstobeconsid-
    eredwhendecisionsaremade.Thequestiontoask
    whenrecommendingormakingdecisionsregarding
    wateruseorwatermanagement,especiallylong-term
    decisions,isWillaparticulardecisionordevelopment
    policybeconsideredawiseorbenecialone,say,
    50yearsfromnow?Doesittrulytintoanintegrated
    waterresourcesplanorpolicy?
    Itisnoteasyforwatermanagementinstitutionsto
    adoptanintegratedplanningandmanagementstrat-
    egy.Manyexistingrulesandregulationsmaylimitthe
    scopeofresponsibilitiesordecisionsanygiveninstitu-
    tioncanmake.Henceonequestiontoasktocheckon
    thedegreeofintegrationobtainedbysomedecision
    bysomeinstitutioniswhoisresponsibleforimple-
    mentingintegratedplansandpolicies(Box11.2).Who
    isresponsibleformakingsureallpossibleoutcomes,
    anddrivers,andafectedstakeholders,havebeen
    consideredinthedecision-makingprocess?Whois
    responsibleforlookingintothefutureandjudging
    whetherornotsomedecisionwillbejudgedasimpor-
    tantforfuturesustainability?Havinganswerstothese
    questionsisameasureoftheextenttowhichadaptive
    IWRMhasbeenimplemented.
    Regularlyreviewingthesequestionswillenableadap-
    tationstobemadebeforethechallengeistoogreat
    tobeadequatelymetbyexistinginstitutionalarrange-
    mentsanddecision-makingprocesses.
    TRANSFORMINGWATERMANAGEMENTINSTITUTIONSTODEALWITHCHANGE
    Peoplesvulnerabilitytoglobalchangesisinuencedby
    thequantityofwateravailablenowandinthefuture,
    underpinnedbyarangeofsocial,economicandenvi-
    ronmentalfactors.Collectively,theseafecttheabilityto
    copewithchangingconditions.TheClimateVulnerability
    Index(CVI)isacompositeindexapproachthatcaptures
    theessenceofthisdenitionofvulnerability.Thismethod
    helpsidentifytovulnerabilityinordertoprioritizeactions
    toprotectlocalpopulations.TheCVIcombinesGlobal
    ImpactFactors(GIFs)includinggeospatialvariables;re-
    sourcequantication;andinformationontheaccessibility
    ofwaterandpropertyrights,thecapacityofpeopleand
    institutions,waterutilizationandthemaintenanceof
    ecologicalintegrity.Theindexvaluesrangefrom
    0to100,withhighvaluesindicatinghighvulnerability.
    Bydevelopingarangeoffutureconditions,bothinterms
    ofclimateandsocio-economicscenarios,thechangein
    CVIscoresfrompresentvaluesindicatehowdiferent
    GIFswillchangeunderdiferentconditions.TheCVIhas
    thepotentialtoinvolvestakeholders,therebyrendering
    theoutcomelegitimateandimplementableintheeyesof
    thoseafected.
    BOX 11.2
    ClimateVulnerabilityIndex
    Source: Sullivan and Meigh (2005).
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 296
    11.3.1Keyelementsofanadaptivemanagement
    approach
    Adaptivemanagementapproachesareslowtoevolve,
    becauseofincreasinguncertaintyoffuturescenari-
    osonthebasisofthehistoricalrecord,innon-linear
    systems.Consequently,themajorchallengesfacing
    waterresourcemanagerschangeatunpredictable
    rates.Failuretorespondadequatelythusbecomesan
    increasingriskinitsownright.Apragmaticproactive
    adaptivemanagementapproachneedstobeadopt-
    ed,comparabletothenoregretsphilosophynotedin
    Chapter5.AnadaptiveIWRMapproachconsistsofthe
    followingelements:
    Strengthenedemergencymanagementandpre-
    parednessplansforallprojectsincludingenhanced
    publicparticipationandidenticationofthecondi-
    tionsunderwhichpublicemergenciesrequiringspe-
    cialmeasureswillbedeclaredandthelimitsofsuch
    measures(i.e.powerandresponsibilitiesofauthori-
    tiesandusers)
    Abilitytoprogrammethegradualandmeasured
    adoptionofmeasuresofadaptationanddenethe
    thresholdwhichtriggerthesemeasures
    Anefectiveinformationandcommunicationsstrat-
    egytoconveythemessages,establishdialoguewith
    alliedsectors,inuenceothersectorsdecision-mak-
    ingandrallypublicsupport(Nyambeetal.,2007)
    Strengthenedinter-agencycollaborationforde-
    velopingjointproceduresandappliedresearchfor
    changeadaptation
    Risk-basedplanninganddesignofinfrastructureto
    accountforadenedrangeofuncertainties
    Anewgenerationofrisk-baseddesignstandardsfor
    infrastructurerespondingtoextremeevents(oods
    anddroughts)
    Increasedinspections,oversightandregulationof
    infrastructureduringoperation,maintenanceandlife
    cyclemanagementofaginginfrastructure
    Vulnerabilityassessmentofwaterinfrastructureand
    impactassessmentofthesocio-economicsystemin
    caseoffailure
    Increasedresearchanddevelopmentorientedtohy-
    drologicalchangeandvariability
    Improvedforecastingmethods
    Theprocessshouldbereiterativeandguidedatall
    stagesbycommonprinciples
    Informationanddataonwateravailabilityanduseis
    inadequateinvirtuallyallcountries,irrespectiveofthe
    stateofdevelopment.Evenwhereinformationand
    dataexist,theyareoftenunreliableorfragmented,or
    maybebasedongrossestimates.Theyareusually
    incompatiblebothtemporally(betweenperiods)and
    spatially(betweencountries,watersectorsorusers,or
    waterbasins).
    11.3.2Scenariosasanelementofanadaptive
    managementapproach
    Improvementsarebeingmadethoughanadaptive
    managementapproach,involvingarangeofimper-
    fectforecastsofthefuture.Theserelyonmanyplau-
    siblefutures,andallowanalystsanddecision-makers
    toidentifyaseriesofnear-termandlong-termop-
    tionsthatarerobustacrossawiderangeofconditions.
    Ratherthanrelyingonaprobabilisticforecastofasin-
    glefuture,thisapproachaskswhatcanbedonetoday
    toshapeamoredesirablerangeofpossiblefutures
    (LempertandGroves,2010;Chapters8and9ofthis
    report.)
    Thereisaneedforincreasinglysophisticatedmonitor-
    ingsystemstosourceandintegratethenecessarydata.
    Thisaddsadditionalstressestotheoveralldecision-
    makingprocess.Theneedforadaptivemanagement
    carrieswithitafundamentalrequirementforcom-
    plexdata,hard-wiredintofeedbackloops,specically
    formanagingtheincrementalchangesneededinthe
    varioussystemsincludingthemeansoftrackingthose
    changes(StakhivandPietrowsky,2009).Inefectthis
    createsinstitutionallearningascoreproblemsarere-
    denedandnewresponsesaregeneratedthroughthe
    modieddecision-makingprocesses.
    11.3.3Modellingasanelementofanadaptive
    managementapproach
    Systemsoflocks,dams,levees,irrigationcanalsand
    conveyancetunnelswerebuiltworldwidebeforethe
    eraofsophisticatedmodellingandriskandreliabil-
    ityanalysis,ortheexistenceofadequatedatabases
    fordeterminingriskanduncertaintyassociatedwith
    hydrologicalvariability.Yetthosestructuresstillstand
    andhaveperformedefectivelythroughawiderange
    ofunanticipatedsupplyanddemandconditions.In
    short,theyhavebeenremarkablyrobustandresilient.
    Ontheotherhand,itisnotknownhowthedesign
    specicationsbasedonspecicclimateparameters
    willperformunderachangingclimate.
    Everyprofessionhasitsestablishedcustomsand
    standards,andcertainlyengineersresponsibleforpub-
    licsafetyhavetheirs.Thesearepartlytheresultofpast
    CHAPTER11
    WWDR4 297
    practicethatseemstobesuccessfuloratleastaccept-
    ablebythepublic,andpartlytheresultofrulesandreg-
    ulationsthatengineeringcontractorsneedtomeetor
    satisfytomeetlegalrequirements.Anexampleofsuch
    safetystandardsisthewidelyused100-yearoodplain
    thatdelineateswhatissusceptibletooodingandwhat
    issafe.Thisisclearlyarbitraryandoftendoesnotreect
    theactualrisksofdamageinvolved.Anotherexampleis
    thelevelofleveeprotectionintheNetherlands,where
    therangeisprotectingfroma1,250-yearreturnowto
    a10,000-yearcoastalstorm.Muchdependsonwhatthe
    publiciswillingtopaytobesafe.
    Modellingcanhelptoidentifythetypeandaccuracy
    ofdatarequiredfordecisionsbeingconsidered.But
    althoughthedataobtainedfromcurrentmonitor-
    ingprogrammesareintendedtobeofvaluetofuture
    managers,itisdifculttopredicttheexactdataand
    precisionthosefuturemanagersmayrequire.Therst
    stageindesigningamonitoringsystemisthereforeto
    denetheinformationneededforthekindsofdeci-
    sionsbeingmade.Theinformationneededdetermines
    theattributestobemeasured,thetypesofdatatobe
    collected,andthekindsofanalysestobeapplied.
    Although hydro-climatologic information about
    frequencies, magnitude, duration and incidence of
    precipitation and runof events are the basic inputs
    into most water management decisions, they are
    but precursors to more fundamental economic, en-
    vironmental and socio-economic information and
    objectives that typically dominate most water man-
    agement decisions. In fact, it is the non-hydrological
    information that directs and constrains the basic
    decision rules that societies use to choose from
    a range of options that can be employed for any
    given water management problem. Land-use regu-
    lations, economic priorities, trade policies, benet-
    cost criteria and even the choice of a discount rate
    used in deciding the present value of future streams
    of benets and costs, are more prominent as de-
    cision factors than most hydrologic information.
    (Stakhiv, 2010, p. 22)
    Frequencyofmeasurementandthedensityofmoni-
    toringsitesaredependentonthevariabilityofanat-
    tributeorparametersvalueovertimeand/orspace.
    Oncethemonitoringnetworkdesignhasbeendened,
    itisimportanttospecifydatacollection,storageand
    analysisprocedures,alongwithplansforreporting
    anddisseminatingtheresults.Thisisincludedinthe
    monitoringstrategy.Thesearesubjecttochangeand
    enhancementovertime,reectingchangesinknowl-
    edgeorgoals,improvementsinmethodsandinstru-
    mentation,andbudgets.Actionstakentomanage
    thesystemmoreefectivelyonthebasisofmonitor-
    ingdatawillleadtochangesininformationneeds.As
    thesechange,themonitoringplanisrevisedaccord-
    ingly(Figure11.2)(UNECE,2006).Thisapproachsup-
    portsthedevelopmentofadaptivemonitoringpro-
    grammesthatevolveiterativelyasnewinformation
    emergesandresearchquestionschange(Lindenmayer
    andLikens,2009).Thisisaninherentpropertyofin-
    stitutionallearningandisanindicatorofappropriate
    adaptivechange.
    11.3.4Decision-makingthatembracesuncertainty
    andrisk
    AdaptiveIWRMisasensibleandpragmaticapproach
    formodernwatermanagers.Itisanextensionto
    IWRMinthatitisdesignedtoaddresstheincreasing
    uncertaintyinherenttoourmodernsocio-ecological
    systems(BurnsandWeaver,2008).Thenaturalenvi-
    ronmentcanbeconsideredasinfrastructurebecause
    itsuppliesmanyofthesameservicesasman-madein-
    frastructure.Wetlandsassimilatemanyorganicwastes
    inthesamemanneraswastewatertreatmentplants.
    Soilmoistureandgroundwaterrepresentsignicant
    sourcesofpotentialstrategicstorage.Increasedre-
    searchandmonitoringregardingecosystemwater
    needshelpstooptimizeuseofthenaturalenviron-
    mentinaninfrastructuralcontext.
    TRANSFORMINGWATERMANAGEMENTINSTITUTIONSTODEALWITHCHANGE
    FIGURE 11.2
    Monitoringandassessmentcycle
    Source: UNECE (2006, g. 3, p. 16).
    WaterManagement
    Informationneeds
    Reportingand
    informationuse
    Datamanagement
    andassessment
    Informationstrategy
    Monitoringand
    datacollection
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 298
    FIGURE 11.3
    TheTrialogueModelwithstructuredinterfaces
    betweenthethreemainactorclustersof
    government,societyandscienceisconduciveto
    adaptiveIWRM
    Waterconservationanddemandmanagementisan
    importantelementofenhancedresourcemanagement
    whensetagainstabackdropofadaptiveIWRM.This
    requiresmakingtrade-ofsbetweenvarioustypesof
    waterusagestoencourageengagementandexibil-
    ity.Watermanagementtoolsforaddressingfuturede-
    mandsincludeinstitutionalreformsandpolicychanges
    thatsupportdemandmanagementandmoreefcient
    wateruse,includingtheuseofappropriatetechnolo-
    gies.Appreciationofthisapproachtomanagingwa-
    terresourcesisimportantasitembracesbehavioural
    changesandeconomicandotherincentives(Brookset
    al.,2009).Tobemostefectivethisrequiresincreased
    publicawarenessefortsandgreaterpublicparticipa-
    tion.Thereisaneedforenhancedanalyticaltoolsand
    modelsyieldingresultsthatarecredible,understand-
    ableandcommunicabletoabroadbandofnon-tech-
    nicalstakeholders,includingthepublic,themedia
    andpoliticalrole-players,suchasthatenvisagedby
    thetrialogueapproachshowninFigure11.3(Ashton
    etal.,2006;Hattinghetal.,2007;Turtonetal.,2007a,
    2007b).Suchamulti-disciplinaryapproachinvolves
    stakeholders,psychologists,economists,hydrolo-
    gists,waterresourcesmanagersandpoliticalscientists,
    amongothers,andisincreasinglyarequirementfor
    derivingoptimalinfrastructuredesignsandwater-use
    policies.
    Theinabilitytomeetwatersupplydemandsand
    protectpeopleandpropertyagainstoodsand
    droughtsisasignicantthreattoallcountries,but
    isfeltmostnotablybydevelopingstatesunableto
    buildtheinfrastructureneededtoreducethead-
    verseimpactsofsuchevents.Therealityisthatwater
    managementsystemsarenotdesignedtosatisfyall
    demands,giventhefullrangeofpossibleexpected
    extremeeventsunderwhatisunderstoodtobecon-
    temporaryhydrologicalvariability.Theyaredesigned
    tominimizethecombinationofrisksandcostsofa
    widerangeofhazardstosociety.Thisrisk-costbal-
    anceisconstantlyadjustedbysocieties,whichiswhy
    manycountrieshaveoodanddroughtinfrastruc-
    turereliabilitysetataspecied-yearreturnperiod.
    Ofcourse,aspopulationdensityandlifestylesin
    urbanareasincreases,thesestandardsinvariably
    change,andbegintoapproachtherisk-aversestand-
    ardsofcountriesliketheNetherlandsandJapan.The
    settingofnewdesignstandardsandplanningcriteria
    areprobablythemostimportantaspectsofanyad-
    aptationstrategy.
    Waterresourcemanagement,whichisnowco-evolv-
    ingwithprinciplesofadaptivemanagement,hasem-
    ployedavarietyoftools,indiferentcombinations,to
    reducevulnerability,enhancesystemresiliencyandro-
    bustness,andprovidereliabledeliveryofwater-related
    services.Thesetoolsconsistofmanytechnologicalin-
    novations,engineeringdesignchanges,multi-objective
    watershedplanning,publicparticipation,regulatory,
    nancialandpolicyincentives.However,well-function-
    inginstitutionsareneededtoefectivelyadminister
    thisbroadarrayofcomplex,dispersedandexpensive
    combinationsofmanagementmeasures.Hence,tack-
    lingthecentralissueofgovernanceisakeyaspectof
    anystrategy(Stakhiv,2010,p.23)intendingtodeal
    withdemandchangeadaptation,andthisisaproduct
    ofadaptiveinstitutions(Falkenmark,2007;Nyambeet
    al.,2007;Priscoli,2007).
    11.4Institutionsformanagingrisk
    anduncertainty
    Present-daywaterinstitutionsingeneralarenot
    equippedtodealwithcontemporarychallenges,such
    asintegratinglandandwaterresourcemanagement,
    workingtowardssynergies,ensuringtransparency
    andaccountability,acquiringsufcientcapacitiesand
    resources,andpossessingadaptivecapacity.Typical
    mechanismstodealwithuncertaintyincludeestab-
    lishingwatershedservices,reducingtransactioncosts,
    CHAPTER11
    Source: Hattingh et al. (2007, g. 1, CSIR 2007).
    Government
    process
    Science
    process
    Society
    process
    Governance
    G
    o
    v
    e
    r
    n
    m
    e
    n
    t

    S
    o
    c
    i
    e
    t
    y

    i
    n
    t
    e
    r
    f
    a
    c
    e
    S
    c
    i
    e
    n
    c
    e

    S
    o
    c
    i
    e
    t
    y

    i
    n
    t
    e
    r
    f
    a
    c
    e
    GovernmentScienceinterface
    WWDR4 299
    creatinglinkagesacrosssectors,anddevelopinganew
    leadershipstyle.
    Improvinginstitutionsentailsstrengtheninginstitution-
    alcapacity,creatinglearning-orientedinstitutionalpro-
    cesses,tacklinginstitutionaldecits,andincorporating
    informalinstitutionsintowatermanagement.Thisim-
    pliesfosteringthecapacitytoworkoutsidethewater
    boxinawaynotyetcommoninmainstreampractice.
    Institutionalcapacityneedstoencompassaclearde-
    nitionoftherolesandresponsibilitiesofeachauthority,
    particularlyincasesofemergenciesorslow-onsetdis-
    asters.Importantfeaturesofadaptiveinstitutionalca-
    pacityare:cleardecision-makingprocedures,commu-
    nicationprotocolsandcontingencyplanning,sustained
    byregulartrainingandsimulationexercises(UNECE,
    2009;WWAP,2009).
    Conventionalwaterplanningtendstoberigidand
    waterinstitutionsaretypicallypoorlylinkedtoother
    institutionsrequiredforefectivegovernanceofthe
    waterresourceandservices(Funkeetal.,2007).The
    collectivechallengeistoascertainhowtodevelop
    adaptivegovernanceframeworksandinstitutions,in
    responsetogrowingcallsforattentiontomoreresil-
    ientinstitutionsandapproaches(GWP,2009).Recent
    developmentsinwatermanagementfocusonim-
    provedgovernanceandinstitutionalchanges,includ-
    ingchangeswithinformalandinformaldomains,as
    wellastheshiftingboundariesofthepublic/private
    divide(Falkenmark,2007;Priscoli,2007;Nyambeet
    al.,2007).Whilesomecountrieshavemadesignicant
    improvements,thesuccessofinstitutionalreformhas
    beenmixed,withmanycountriesstillfacinggovern-
    ance,nancialandcapacityshortcomingstoimple-
    mentnewinstitutionalstructures(Box11.3).
    11.4.1Creatingadaptableandexibleinstitutions
    RecognitionthatIWRM(seeSection5.1)needsto
    becomemoreadaptivehasbroughtincreasedappre-
    ciationformulti-sectorandmulti-disciplinarycol-
    laborativeefortstowardssustainabledevelopment.
    Thisprovidesanopportunityforhealthyinstitutional
    change.Withoutinstitutionscapableofaccommodat-
    inguncertainty,climateandotherexternalchanges
    willimposesignicantcostsonwaterusersandwater-
    dependentcommunities,ultimatelylimitingeconomic
    growthpotential.Identifyingthewaythatendogenous
    andexogenousfeaturesinuencemanagementpro-
    cessesenhancesadaptiveinstitutionalarchitectureand
    efectiveness.Thekeychallengestosustainhealthy
    institutionalevolutionareasfollows.
    Integration
    Thisincludesthealignmentandintegrationpolicies
    withintheformalandinformalinstitutionsthatregu-
    lateactionsforbothlandandwater.Efectiveinstitu-
    tionsencouragecost-efectiveconservationmeas-
    uresandefciencyenhancements,likewater-demand
    managementpractices,whileremainingexibleand
    adaptableenoughtoaccommodateincreasinglyun-
    certainclimateforecasts.Theyalsoneedtoberobust
    enoughtoaccommodatechangesinwateravail-
    abilitybyfacilitatingthereallocationofwatersup-
    plies,whichisanactionpronetothegenerationof
    instability,ifincorrectlymanaged.Whenintegration
    cannotbeachieved,trade-ofsmaybenecessaryand
    TRANSFORMINGWATERMANAGEMENTINSTITUTIONSTODEALWITHCHANGE
    Thegoalofwater-qualitymonitoringistoobtaininforma-
    tionusefulformanagingwaterresources.InNigeria,most
    ofthewaterusedfordomesticandindustrialpurposes
    ischannelledfromriversandgroundwater.Themajor-
    ityofthepopulaceobtainswaterfromriversandshal-
    lowwells,andconstantwater-qualitymonitoringisaway
    tocheckandavertpollution,aswellasupgradestand-
    ards.Thisismostpracticalincitieswherehighpopulation
    densityandindustriesresultinthedischargeofalarge
    amountofwasteintowaterbodies.Water-qualitymoni-
    toringinNigeriaonlyinvolvesthemonitoringofground-
    waterlevelsonceayearineachstate,andisperformed
    bythestatewaterboardusingstandardsestablishedby
    theFederalEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyofNigeria.
    Thereisnointegratedriverwater-quality-monitoring
    scheme.Althoughtheenvironmentischaracterizedby
    unfavourablelegislative,technicalandoperationalcondi-
    tions,theprincipalconstraintsonwater-qualitymoni-
    toringinNigeriaareinstitutionalbarriers:theorganiza-
    tionalframeworkdoesnotfunctioninawaytoenable
    suchmonitoring.Thekeyissuesincludeinadequateand
    untimelyfunding,shortageofrequisitepersonnel,lack
    ofacentralcoordinationbodyforagencyactivities,poor
    maintenanceofinfrastructure,andlackofresponseto
    institutionalreformneeds.Asaresult,thereareonlymild
    orevennopenaltiesforculprits.Moreover,thelackofin-
    formationonpollutionisaserioushindrancetopollution
    management.Monitoringisnotjustatechnicalissue;itis
    alsoanorganizationalandinstitutionalissue.
    BOX 11.3
    WaterqualitymonitoringinNigeria
    Source: Ekiye and Zejiao (2010).
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 300
    synergiescanbesought,toachieveresourceoptimi-
    zationandminimizeadverseimpacts.Akeychal-
    lengeishowtoengageunregulatedtraditionaland
    informalinstitutionalframeworkswithformalwater
    supplyregimes.
    Realizing synergies
    Diferentinstitutionsmaytakemeasuresthatinu-
    enceeachother.Forexample,theEuropeanUnion(EU)
    CommonAgriculturalPolicy(CAP)playsabenecial
    roleinachievingthegoalsoftheEUWaterFramework
    Directive(WFD).Suchsynergiesarebenecialforatleast
    oneoftheinstitutions.Identicationofweakorstrong
    linksbetweeninstitutionshelpstoidentifypossibilitiesfor
    synergies(oravoidanceofdisruption),delineatereform
    tasks,andsetinstitutionalpriorities(Wettestad,2008).
    Similarly,policiesimplementedbyagenciesresponsible
    formininginwater-constrainedareasmightbenetsoci-
    etyatlarge,buthaveseverenegativeimpactsonnational
    foodsecurity,becauseoftheunintendedconsequence
    ofunplannedmineclosure,suchasisthecaseinSouth
    Africa(vanTonderandCoetzee,2008).
    Water integrity and accountability
    Transparentprocessesandaccesstoinformationare
    requiredtodiscouragecorruption,whichadverselyaf-
    fectsefcientandequitablewaterallocationandthe
    deliveryofwaterandsanitationservicesparticularly
    topoorandvulnerablegroups.Corruptionisasymp-
    tomofagovernancecrisisthatincreasestransaction
    costs(Allen,1999;Lund,1993)anddiscouragesinvest-
    ments(Earle,2007).Hence,itafectsinstitutionalre-
    formforimprovedaccountability(Marinetal.,2007).
    Inmostdevelopingcountries,regulatorstaskedwith
    thesespecicrolesareoftenweakandaresometimes
    absent(vanWyketal.,2007).Wateraccountingis
    nowstartingtoemergeinwater-constrainedcountries,
    likeAustralia,drivenbytheneedtoimprovethein-
    tegrityofreportingonwaterusagebyallstakeholders
    (AASB,2011;WWAP-UNSD,2011).
    Capacity development and resources
    Adequatenancingandappropriatestafngarere-
    quiredforefectiveandefcientdeliveryofwaterser-
    vices,andtheabilityandauthoritytoaddressbasic
    governanceissueslikeintegrityandaccountability.
    OneemergingexamplecomesfromtheMapungubwe
    areaintheLimpopoRiverBasin,wherethegovern-
    menthasallocatedminingrightswithoutconsideration
    forwaterconstraintsandculturalsensitivitiesinthe
    adjacentUNESCOWorldHeritageSite.Theoutcomeof
    aprocessofvigorouscontestationwasanewagree-
    mentbetweentheminingindustry,governmentand
    wildlifeconservationists,tocreateanewformofofset
    tradingtomeettherequirementsofallparties.
    1

    Adaptive capacities of institutions to deal with risk and


    uncertainties
    Developmentsintechnologyandinfrastructure,aswell
    astheavailabilityofnancialresources,willbeessen-
    tialtoimprovewater-useefciency.
    Anexampleisfoundinthenewcoaleldsinthe
    GreaterSoutpansberg(portionoftheLimpopoRiver
    basin),whereendemicwaterscarcityisafundamental
    constrainttojobcreationthroughmining.Onesolution
    underinvestigationinvolvesthecreationofwhatis
    knownasaspecialpurposevehicle(SPV)bytheDWA,
    whichwouldfacilitatethebuy-outoftheexistingwa-
    terrightsoffarmers,alongwiththenegotiationofan
    of-takeagreementwiththeminingsector.Thisisan
    exampleofadaptivemanagement,wheregovernment
    playsaproactiveroleinshiftingwaterfromanactivity
    withaknownlowsectoralwaterefciency(SWE)ratio
    (agriculture)toonewithaknownhighSWE(mining).
    Generating adequate and sustainable nancing
    Manywaterinstitutionsindevelopingcountriesare
    plaguedbyunder-nancingandcapacitydecits.New
    fundingisrequiredformoreefectiveinstitutional
    implementation,butexistingfundingshouldbeused
    moreefciently.Mostwaterfundinggoestoinfrastruc-
    turedevelopmentratherthanbeinginvestedindevel-
    opinginstitutionsandhumancapacities.Governments
    andtheprivatesectormustprovidebetterincentives
    forinnovativefundingapproachesthatcanenhance
    institutionalimplementation,andthusreducetheun-
    certaintiesafectingpeopleslivelihoods,aswellasac-
    cesstowaterresourcesandservices.
    Anothermechanismisto reduce free-ridingandtrans-
    actioncosts(Nicoletal.,2001).Waterresourceinsti-
    tutionsdeterminewhocanusewhatwater,how,at
    whattimeandforhowmuch;theyalsosetmanage-
    mentresponsibilities,tarifsandcollectfees.Tokeep
    aninstitutionviablethevariousmembersneedto
    contributenancially.Free-ridingoccurswhenlegiti-
    matewateruserstakemorethantheirallocatedshare
    ofwater,whichcantriggerdisputesoverallocation.
    Waterresourcesmayalsobeextractedbyillegitimate
    userswithoutlegalrights,permitsorentitlementsto
    thatspecicresource,whichisespeciallycommonand
    CHAPTER11
    WWDR4 301
    Theraisingofcapitaltoovercomesomeofthesecon-
    straintshasarichhistory.TheSwayamShikshanPrayog
    projectinIndiahasfacilitatedtheformationofmore
    than1,000womenssavingsandcreditgroups,which
    havemobilizedtheirowncapitaltoprovideloansfor
    oneanother.TheSakhiSamudayaKoshwasestablished
    asanon-protorganizationin2006toprovidemicro-
    creditforwomenforagriculture,waterandsanitation,
    aswellasinsurancetolow-incomepeopleindisaster
    areas.
    2
    TheGrameenBankisanotherexample,which
    hasbeenshowntobehighlyefectivetothepointthat
    itwasjointlyawardedtheNobelPrizein2006.
    3
    11.4.2Actionswhichcanimproveinstitutions
    Institutionalchangeswithinwatermanagementoc-
    curduetoendogenousfactors(waterscarcity,perfor-
    mancedeteriorationandnancialnon-viability)aswell
    asexogenousfactors(macro-economiccrisis,political
    reform,naturalcalamitiesandtechnologicalprogress).
    Together,theseraisetheopportunitycostsofinstitu-
    tionalchange,reducethecorrespondingtransaction
    costs,andcreateaninstitutionalculturethatiscon-
    ducivetoreform.Box11.4providesrecommendations
    thatcanbeusefulinmobilizingthemutuallysupport-
    iveaspectsofthesefactorsforinstitutionalreform.
    Institutionalwatermanagementismostefective
    whenbasedoncollaborativegovernance.Waterman-
    agementthatbuildsonajointefortofgovernment,
    societyandtechnicalinstitutionsensuresthatmeas-
    ureswillbebothefectiveandsustainable(Hattingh
    etal.,2007;Turtonetal.,2007).Thisentailslook-
    ingoutsidethewaterboxandimprovingdiscipli-
    naryintegrationoverdiverseaspectssuchaswater,
    agriculture,mining,environment,planning,nance
    andruraldevelopment,onbothtechnicalandpolicy
    levels.Achievingthiswillrequirethebuildingoftrust
    andsocialcapital(Fine,2001;Ostrom,1994,2001)to
    ensurethataproblem-solvingprocesstakesplace
    (Timmermanetal.,2010).
    Institutionalreformneedstobermlyanchored
    amongstakeholdersandtheirleadership.Ifinstitutions
    donothavelegitimacyintheeyesofthepublic,they
    willnotreceivesupportandstakeholdersaremore
    likelytoretainthestatus quo,orevendeveloptheir
    owninformalrules,therebyunderminingtheintegrity
    ofthesystem.Animportantmechanismistherefore
    toimproveinstitutionalperformancebyimprovingpo-
    liticalwillandleadership.Thisremainsachallengefor
    waterdecision-makers.
    difculttocontrolinthecaseofgroundwater.Forthat
    reason,community-basedwatersupplyprojectsinru-
    ralareashavefrequentlyproveduntenable,withmany
    communitiesunabletoraisesufcientfundstomeet
    operationandmaintenancecostsassociatedwithcom-
    monwaterresources.Thetransactioncostsformoni-
    toringandpolicingwateruserscanbesohighthat
    itoutweighsthebenets,particularlyinruralareas
    wherewateruserscanbedispersedoverlargeareas.
    Thismayalsobethecaseifcommunitygoalsoffair-
    nessinwaterallocationandcost-sharingaredecient.
    Socialsanctioningmayminimizethenumberoffree-
    riders(Clark,1977;Olson,1965).Socialnormscangen-
    eratepunishmentforcommunitymemberswhobreak
    therules,andruntheriskofsocialexclusionordisre-
    spect(BreierandVisser,2006;Ostrom,1990).
    TRANSFORMINGWATERMANAGEMENTINSTITUTIONSTODEALWITHCHANGE
    Areviewof11countriesMexico,Chile,Brazil,Spain,
    Morocco,Israel,SouthAfrica,SriLanka,Australia,China,
    andIndia,undertakenbySalethandDinar(1999)sug-
    geststhatamongthe11countries,onlyAustraliaandChile
    (andwithintheUnitedStatesofAmerica,Californiaand
    Colorado)areatanadvanced(thoughnotideal)stageof
    institutionalchange.
    Someoftherecommendationsfromthisstudyoninstitu-
    tionalchangesinclude:
    Attemptstofxisolatedpartsofwatermanagement
    willinuenceotherdimensions.Anintegratedapproach
    isbest,attheheartofwhichshouldbeinstitutional
    changesaimedatmodernizingandstrengtheninglegal,
    policyandadministrativearrangementsforthewhole
    spectrumofwatermanagement.
    lnstitutionalchangestakingplaceeverywheresuggest
    thattheopportunitycostsof(andnetgainfrom)insti-
    tutionalchangeareovertakingmosttransactioncosts.
    Butinstitutionalchangeisnotuniform,suggestingthat
    opportunityandtransactioncostsvary.
    Fundingagenciesshouldfocusefortsandresources
    incountries,areas,andsubsectorsthatalreadyhave
    enoughcriticalmassininstitution-buildingtoensure
    successandlowertransactioncosts.
    1hesequenceandpaceofreformshouldrefectreali-
    tiesofscaleeconomiesandpoliticalpressuresfromre-
    formconstituencies.Whenpossible,politicaleconomy
    shouldbeexploitedtoquickenreform.
    BOX 11.4
    Reviewofwatermanagementinstitutionsand
    reformsin11countries
    Source: Saleth and Dinar (1999, from the summary ndings).
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 302
    Thebasisofanyseriousandworkablesystemofdis-
    puteresolutionistheexistenceofanindependent
    administratororjudiciarywithcompulsoryjurisdic-
    tionovertheconicttoadjudicate,shouldeveryother
    meansfail.Otherwisethepartybenetingfromthe
    statusquohasnoincentivewhatsoevertosubmitto
    anyothermeansof(voluntary)disputeresolution.
    Efectiveinstitutionalchange,andthedegreetowhich
    thiscandealwithinherentuncertainty,iscloselyre-
    latedto path dependence.Initssimplestform,path
    dependenceexplainshowcurrentsituationsfacing
    waterdecision-makersforanygivencircumstance,are
    generallydenedbypastdecisions,eventhoughthe
    pastcircumstancesmaybeirrelevantinthepresent
    andfuture.Becauseofthepathdependenceofwater
    institutionsingeneral,itisimportantthatwaterdeci-
    sion-makersintensifytheirefortstoprovideincentives
    formeaningfulinstitutionalchange,byadoptingthe
    followingmeasures.
    Reinforcewaterinstitutions:Addressingimplementa-
    tionchallenges,suchasvestedpoliticalinterestsand
    accountabilitysystems,beforeanynewinstitutions
    areputinplace,helpstostrengthenthoseinstitu-
    tions.Manycountriesareplaguedbyimplementation
    problemsdrivenbyalackofhumancapacity,informa-
    tionowsandnancing.Thefundamentalgovernance
    issuesthatgeneratedisincentivesforenforcementby
    waterinstitutions,andappropriateinstitutionalset-up,
    generallyremainintractable.Withingovernancesys-
    temscharacterizedbytheexistenceofapatron/client
    relationship,corruptionandvestedpoliticalinterests
    tendtoendure.Changingdecision-makingpracticesso
    thattheyaretransparentandaccountablewillbemore
    efectivethanincreasedcapacitiesandbetterscientic
    informationunderthesecircumstances.
    Createlearning-orientedinstitutionalprocesses:
    Experiencesuggeststhatinstitutionalreformisaniter-
    ativelearningprocess,wherechangeisnegotiatedbe-
    tweendiferentgroups.Therearenoperfectsolutions,
    onlysolutionsthatworkinaparticularcontext,sothe
    besttisoftenmoreimportantthanthebestpractice
    (Baiettietal.,2006).
    Fosteringdialogueandconsensusatthenationallevel
    isanessentialelementforsuccess,ensuringthefullin-
    volvementofallsectorsofsociety.
    Addressinstitutionaldecits:Theinstitutionalset-
    upinareasresponsibleforwaterqualityandground-
    watermanagementisoftenverylimited.Sustainable
    managementoftheseareasislikelytobecomemore
    relevantwithchangingdemographics,socio-economic
    developmentsandclimatechange.
    Gobeyondformalregulationandincorporateinfor-
    malinstitutionsintoriskanduncertaintyanalyses:
    Informallocalinstitutionsallocatewaterresourcesin
    manypartsoftheworld,andformalregulatorysys-
    temsmayonlyhavelimitedinuenceonsuchdeci-
    sions.Amajorchallengeistoreachpoorandmargin-
    alizedsocialgroupsthatnormallydependoninformal
    systemsofwaterallocationandservicedelivery.
    Lookingbeyondwhatistraditionallyconsideredwater
    managementgoingoutsidethewaterboxisthere-
    foreinevitable.Connectingwatermanagementwith
    landmanagementandsectorslikeagriculture,mining
    andenergy,attheinstitutionallevel,willenhancethe
    probabilityofefectivedecision-making(Ashtonetal.,
    2006).Realizingthisapproachishighlydemandingon
    leadership,andovercomingtheinertiaoftraditional
    approachesandresistancefromvariousactorsremains
    adauntingtask.Decision-makersneedsupportinput-
    tingtheseideasintopractice,aswellasthecourageto
    CHAPTER11
    Transparent processes
    and access to
    information are
    required to discourage
    corruption, which
    adversely afects
    efcient and equitable
    water allocation and
    the delivery of water
    and sanitation services
    particularly to poor
    and vulnerable groups.
    WWDR4 303
    possible,waysofcommunicatinguncertaintythatare
    empoweringandconstructiveandthathighlightthe
    possiblebenets.
    Anotherareathatcancauseconfusionwhencommuni-
    catinguncertaintyandriskandindeedwhencommu-
    nicatingingeneralcomprisesthenumerousdifer-
    entvoicesoropinions,expertorotherwise,thatareput
    forward.Ifconictingargumentsoropinionsarebeing
    expressedbywhatareconsideredtobereliableand
    reputablesourcessuchastrustedmediaorganizations,
    experts,governmentagenciesorrespectedpersonali-
    tiesandjournaliststheresultingsituationrapidlycre-
    atesconfusionintheeyesofthegeneralpublic.
    Individualsorgroupsmayhavediferentreactionsto
    conictinginformation:somemaychoosetoaccept
    anopinionthatmostsuitstheirlifestyle/beliefsys-
    tem,somemaydelvedeeperiftheyareinterested
    enoughandcommittofurtherresearchonwhichto
    baseamoreinformedopinion.Othersmaybeunable
    orunwillingtomakesenseoftheconictingopinions
    andmaybediscouragedbythetopicaltogether:you
    cantbelievewhatyouhear.
    Inordertofacetheglobalchangesandchallengesthat
    lieahead,aconcertedefortbythewatercommunity
    tocommunicateinonevoiceastrongandcollec-
    tivevoiceisapriority,especiallyifitistoencourage
    leadersanddecision-makersandstakeholdersfromall
    walksoflifetocooperateandactinthebestinterests
    ofall.Theimportanceofexpressingimportantinfor-
    mationcoherentlyandinacoordinatedmannershould
    notbeunderrated.
    11.5.2Decipheringuncertaintyandrisk
    Specialistsandnon-specialistsalikeconstantlyman-
    ageuncertaintyandstatementsofprobability.While
    errorsindetailcanbemade,manypeoplesucceed
    inmanagingnon-technicalprobabilisticinformation
    aboutthelikelihoodofevents,suchasriverows,lake
    levels,weatherevents,watershortages,oodsandpol-
    lutionlevels.Communicatingaspectsofuncertaintyand
    riskcanbeaparticularchallengewhenthenatureofthe
    decisionsbeingdebatedislargelytechnical.Decision-
    makersotherthanwatermanagers,includingusers,
    politicians,leadersandthegeneralpublic,allofwhom
    participateinmodernwatermanagementdecision-
    makingatsomelevel,sometimeshavedifcultyfully
    understandingstandardtechnicalconcepts,suchas
    thoseconcerninga100-yearoodplainoracategory5
    withstandcriticism,andthewillingnesstosharepower
    withotheractors.Previousexperiencehasshownthat
    thosewhochampionpolicychangeoftenbecomevic-
    timsoftheveryprocessofchangethattheysuccessful-
    lyinitiate(HuitemaandMeijerink,2009).
    11.5Communicatingriskanduncertainty
    Inordertomakeappropriatedecisionstomanagepar-
    ticularuncertaintiesandrisks,theuncertaintiesand
    risksinvolvedrsthavetobeclearlyunderstood.Events
    carryingalowprobabilityofrisk(e.g.anaeroplane
    crashornuclearplantleak)areoftenfearedmorethan
    thosecarryingahigherprobabilityofrisk(e.g.being
    hitbyacarwhilewalkingorcycling).Withoutprecise
    informationexpressedinaclearandconciseway,the
    magnitudeofanyriskoruncertaintyinvolvedinanac-
    tioniseasytomisjudge.Mistakenlyattachingexcessive
    risktoeventsmaynotonlycauseunnecessaryanxiety,
    butmayalsocauseindividualstoputthemselvesinthe
    wayofharm(ThalerandJohnson,1990).Uncertainsitu-
    ationshaveuncertainoutcomesandthereforecarrya
    degreeoftheunknown,whichifcommunicatedinade-
    quatelycancauseexaggeratedworryorfear.Itisthere-
    foreimportanttosupplyenoughaccurateinformation
    togivetheindividualacertainamountofcontrolwhen
    facedwithuncertainty.Thiscanmakemanaginguncer-
    taintylessstressfuland,asaresult,attainmorepositive
    andrealisticoutcomes.
    11.5.1Mediainuence
    Itisalltooeasytonegativelycommunicateuncer-
    tainty,ascanbefrequentlyobservedinthemedia.
    Highlevelsofuncertaintycangivethosewhoaspire
    toaparticularagendaanopportunitytospinthe
    factsandcommunicateinadeliberatelymisleading
    ormanipulativeway,oftencausingworryorfear.Ifthe
    objectiveistomotivatepeopleintopositiveaction,
    communicatinginthismanner,commonlyusedasa
    methodofcontrol,beitpoliticalorotherwise,canbe
    largelycounterproductive,generatingaclimateoffear
    andfeelingsofhelplessness.
    Thetaskofcoveringanissueinabalancedandrespon-
    siblewaypresentsanobviouschallengeformembers
    ofthepressandthemediaingeneral.Thisisespecially
    trueinsituationswherestatementsaboutuncertainties
    canbeimmediatelyseizeduponandinterpretedindif-
    ferentandconictingwaysinongoingpublicdebates.
    Uncertaintycanalsoofercrucialopportunitiesfor
    generatingbenets,anditisimportanttond,where
    TRANSFORMINGWATERMANAGEMENTINSTITUTIONSTODEALWITHCHANGE
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 304
    hurricanestormsurge.Explainingvariousaspectsof
    theuncertaintiesandunknownsassociatedwithnon-
    stationaryphenomenatothedecision-makingpub-
    licbecomesevenmoredemanding.Thechallengeis
    howtomostefectivelyhelpthepublic,stakeholders
    anddecision-makerstounderstanduncertaintiesand
    theirimpactonpossibledecisions,therebyenabling
    themtobebetterinformedastheyparticipateinde-
    batesoverwhichdecisionsarebest.Oneoftheaims
    isthereforetoexpressprobabilisticinformationand
    expertopinionintransparentnon-technicalandrecog-
    nizableterms.
    Bridgingthegapbetweenscienticresearchand
    decision-makersisthekeytochange.Communication
    playsalargepartinthedecision-makingprocessand
    shouldnotbeunderestimated.
    Theextremesandchangescurrentlybeingexperienced
    arestillmostlywithinthenormsofnaturalhistorical
    climatevariability.Muchoftodaysexistingwaterre-
    sourcesinfrastructurewasdesignedtoaccommodate
    order-of-magnitudeofvariability.Standardengineer-
    ingpracticesaccountforuncertaintiesbyincluding
    redundancy(safetyfactors)indesigns.Itisalsoim-
    perativeforanyoneinvolvedinsettingoodandcrop
    insurancerates,deningoodplainzones,anddesign-
    inglevees,reservoirs,stormsewersandhighwaycul-
    verts,forexample,tounderstandtheserisksandun-
    certaintiesandtheirpossibleeconomic,environmental,
    andsocialconsequences.
    Mostpeopleprefercertaintytouncertainty.They
    wouldmuchratherbetoldthatitisgoingtorainto-
    day,orthatitisnotgoingtoraintoday,orthattheir
    ightwilldepartontime,thanbeingtoldthatthere
    isa64%chanceofgettingwet,andconsequently
    thereisasmallchanceofaightdelay,evenifthey
    knowthatthesedenitivestatementsmaynotbetrue.
    Ifthestatementsturnouttobefalse,clearlysome
    trustbetweentheforecasterandthepublicwillbe
    lost.Peoplesresponsestouncertaintypartlydepend
    ontheirattitudetowardswhatisuncertain,suchasa
    oodhazard.Thosedesiringmorecertaintywillnot
    besatised,andthosewhohadintendedtoignore
    thehazardmaybecomeevenlessconcernedaboutit
    becauseifthereisasubstantialriskofharmrelatedto
    somepossibleevent,itisnodoubtwisetomakesure
    thepublicknowswhatthatharmmightbe,evenifthe
    probabilityofthateventandhencetheriskmightbe
    low.
    Thesameappliestowarningsandreassurances.The
    temptationtosuppressuncertaintyandexpresscon-
    denceiseverpresent,butitisbestifthetemptation
    isresisted.Ifover-condenceprovestobemisplaced
    itdamagescredibilityandtheabilitytocommunicate
    efectively.Ifpossible,peopleshouldbetoldwhatis
    certain,whatisalmostbutnotquitecertain,whatis
    probable,whatisagamble,whatispossiblebutun-
    likely,andwhatisalmostinconceivable.Boundscan
    beplacedontheuncertainty:uncertainriskscanbe
    expressedintermsoftherangeofexpertopinions.
    Thegreatertheuncertainty,themorejustiedthe
    precautions,preciselybecausetheriskcouldbemore
    serious.
    Itshouldbeacknowledgedbyallthosemakingesti-
    matesof,ortryingtoquantify,riskanduncertainty
    thattheseestimatesorquantitativemeasuresare
    themselvesuncertain.Forexample,justhowcon-
    dentisitpossibletobethattheprobabilityofrain
    todaywillbe10%?Thishigherlevelofuncertainty
    justcomplicatesthecommunicationofrisksand
    uncertainties,butitisthere,evenifitisnotknown.
    Thosewhowishtowaitbeforesayinganythingabout
    ariskleveluntiltheyknowhowcondenttheyareof
    theirriskpredictionsmayneverhaveanythingtosay.
    CHAPTER11
    Menandwomenaccess,process,interpretandrespondto
    informationindiferentways,duetotheculturalcontext
    andgenderdivisionoflabour.Statisticsfrompastdisas-
    tersaroundtheworlddemonstratetheconsequencesof
    gender-neutralearlywarningsystems.In1991,forexam-
    ple,thedeathtollfromtheBangladeshcyclonewasve
    timeshigherforwomenthanmen,partlybecauseearly
    warninginformationwastransmittedbymentomenin
    publicspaces,rarelyreachingwomendirectly.Earlywarn-
    ingsystemsthataregenderneutralarenotefectivein
    reachingwomenadequately,andthuspreparednessis
    limitedandmayultimatelycostlives.Agender-sensitive
    approachenhancesearlywarningsystemsthrough:moni-
    toringandwarningservices;disseminationofinformation
    bymediathatcanreachwomen;andresponsecapabil-
    ity.Womenplayanimportantroleasrstrespondersin
    takingappropriateandtimelyactioninresponsetothe
    warnings.
    BOX 11.5
    Gender-sensitivedisseminationofinformation:
    ThecaseofearlywarningsystemsinBangladesh
    Source: UNISDR, UNDP and IUCN (2009).
    WWDR4 305
    Communicatinguncertaintyisagoodstart,butitis
    notenough.Thegoalistocommunicatewhatispres-
    entlythought,orknown,aspreciselyaspossible,and
    tocommunicatethelevelofuncertainty.
    Aneasywaytospecifydegreesofuncertaintyiswith
    numbers.Theoddsof1-in-a-millionmeansitispracti-
    callynotgoingtohappen;1-in-100meansitishighly
    unlikelybutcouldhappen;and1-in-10,althoughless
    unlikely,wouldstillsurprisemostpeopleifitoccurred.
    Similarestimatesattheotherendoftheprobability
    distributioninclude9-in-10,99-in-100,and
    999,999-in-a-million.When50-50isusedithelps
    toclarifywhethertheevidenceisgenerallyevenly
    divided,orthatthereisnorelevantevidenceonwhichto
    baseajudgment.Whendecidingontheconsequencesof
    risk,decisionsoftenlargelydependonthecontext(e.g.
    whatisatstake):anengineermaynottakea1-in-10
    riskinengineeringdesign,butmayleaveanumbrella
    athomeifthelikelihoodofprecipitationis1-in-10.
    Other,longerphrasesthatcancommunicatediferent
    levelsofuncertaintyreasonablyclearlyareasfollows
    (Sandman,2004):
    TheweightofevidencesuggeststhatXislikelier
    thannot,butthereisstillplentyofroomfordoubt.
    WerealmostsurethatXisnothappening,andare
    proceedingonthatassumption,butarecontinuing
    tomonitorthesituationtoallowourselvestochange
    courseshoulditbemistaken.
    WethinkitisprobablyXorYandwouldbeshocked
    atanythingelse;althoughZislesslikelyitremainsa
    possibility.
    11.5.3Targetedcommunication
    Whenideasareexpressed(e.g.moreefectivelyad-
    dressingriskscreatesbenetsandreducesvulnerabili-
    ties),theycanoftenseemintangible.Assuch,they
    canbeeasytoagreewith,butdifculttoknowhow
    toachieve.Efectivecommunicationbreaksdownthe
    globalstatement/aimintosmallersectionstomakeit
    moreeasilyunderstood.Questionscanbeaskedsuch
    asHowcanthatgoalbestbeattained?Whatare
    thepracticalstepsthatcouldbetakentoachievethat
    goal?Whocouldmeaningfullycontributetoreaching
    thegoalsuccessfully?andHowcouldtheydothis?
    Separatingtheaudienceintotargetgroupsandtai-
    loringthecommunicationtoeachcanclarifyand
    strengthentheimpactofthemessage.Atargetgroup
    ofhighimportanceisthemedia,inallitsvariousforms.
    Manycrucialmessagesareimpartedthroughtheme-
    dia,whetherexpressednegativelyorpositively.The
    mediaisapowerfulcommunicatingforcebothatlocal
    andgloballevels,andinuencesopinionsandthere-
    foreactionsinavastarrayoftopics.Typicallythe
    medianeedhooks.Generallythemoredramaticthe
    hook,themorelikelyitisthattheinformationwillbe
    publishedorbroadcast(e.g.ashockingstatisticmay
    makeheadlineswhileacompetingpositivestatement
    aboutthesametopicmaynot).Itisimportanttostrike
    abalancebetweenattractingthemedia,whilebeing
    awareofandtakingresponsibilityforthepossibleim-
    pactoftheinformationfedtothem.
    Inordertomotivateatargetaudiencewithtargeted
    messagesitisimportanttoclearlydeneeachgroup
    andunderstandtheirmotivation.Howeachgroupre-
    spondstocommunicationandactsuponitsmessage
    isalsolikelytobediferent.Whatmotivatespolitical
    leaderstoactinthefaceofuncertaintymaybedifer-
    entfromwhatmotivatesteachersorsmallbusiness
    owners.Astherearemultipleanglestoinformationand
    asthereferencepoint,codingandeditingofparticu-
    larmessagesarekeyfactorsintheanalysisofdecisions
    (KahnemanandTversky,1979)inordertoachievethe
    desiredcommunicationobjectivethecorrectangle,key
    wordsandlanguageshouldbechosencarefullyand
    correctlyforeachtargetgroup(seeBox11.5).
    Prolequestionscanbeaskedtoidentifywhatmoti-
    vateseachgroup.Thisrequiressomegeneralization,
    anditisimportanttobecertainwhencorrectlyidenti-
    fyingthecharacteristicsofaparticulargroup(avoiding
    stereotypicalidentiers).Thisisparticularlypertinent
    ifthetargetgroupisnottheonetowhichtheproler
    belongs.Adiversegroupshouldthereforecarryout
    thisactivitytoensurebroadersocialknowledgeand
    awareness.Examplesofquestionsthatcanbeaskedof
    eachgroupare:
    Whatistheiraveragelevelofeducation?
    Whichnewspapers/magazinesdo/maytheybuy?
    Whatmotivatesthemtomakeparticularpurchases/
    takeparticularaction?
    Whatdotheyconsiderasworryingonalocal/global
    scale?
    Whatactioncanthey/wouldtheybe likelytotake?
    Whatinhibitsthemfromtakingthisaction?
    Whatdothey/othersconsidertobetheirweakness-
    esandstrengths?
    TRANSFORMINGWATERMANAGEMENTINSTITUTIONSTODEALWITHCHANGE
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 306
    Oncethetargetaudienceshavebeendenedand
    theirmotivationsanddesiresbetterunderstood,itis
    easiertocommunicateinformationefectively.Itisnot
    importantifthecommunicationmaterialpreparedfor
    onetargetaudienceisnotunderstoodbyalltarget
    audiences,butitisimportantthatitisunderstandable
    totheparticulargroupbeingaddressed.Thelanguage
    usedintargetedcommunicationcanbestrongerand
    clearerasitdoesnotattempttocoverallbases.The
    morefamiliarthelanguage,theeasieritisforthatspe-
    cicgrouptounderstand.Forexample,technicalin-
    formationanddatamaybeusedinabundanceforone
    targetgroupbutgreatlymodiedorusedsparinglyfor
    another.
    Tomaximiseefectivenessintermsofpositiveaction
    whencommunicatinguncertaintyandrisk,itmaybe
    necessaryforeachtargetgrouptofeelreasonably
    challenged(apercentageofshockfactormaybenec-
    essary),butnotfearfulorhelpless.
    Conclusion
    Insteadofimpartinganimpressionofimpending
    doomordisaster,uncertaintyandriskcaninsteadbe
    communicatedthroughtargeted,preciseandena-
    blingmessages,withcommunicatorsbridgingthegap
    betweenexperts(whomaybelargelytechnical)and
    thegeneralpublic.Whencommunicatingthroughthe
    mediaorotherwise,itisimportanttohighlightthefact
    thatuncertaintyandriskcanalsobringopportunity
    andthepossibilityofpositivechange.
    Knowledgeisempoweringandformsthebasisfor
    makinginformedandprogressivedecisions,andin-
    formationcommunicatedinaclearandtargetedway,
    withonevoice,canenablepeopletobetterunder-
    stand,andreachtheirownconclusions,abouttherisk
    involved.Thisinturnimpartsresponsibilityanden-
    couragesaction,whichisessentialforchange.

    Notes
    1 Formoreinformationseehttp://www.savemapungubwe.org.za/
    media.php
    2 FormoreinformationseetheSwayamShikshanPrayogProject
    websitehttp://www.sspindia.org/
    3 Formoreinformationseehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
    Grameen_Bank

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    CHAPTER11
    WWDR4 309 TRANSFORMINGWATERMANAGEMENTINSTITUTIONSTODEALWITHCHANGE
    CHAPTER 12
    Investment and nancing in water
    for a more sustainable future
    Shutterstock/FloridaStock

    Author JamesWinpenny

    Investment in water and sanitation is a vital concern for the many households that still lack
    these services. Water underpins all parts of a modern economy and its productive uses
    are also essential for poverty reduction. Water development is an integral part of a green
    economy: it is central to societys adjustment to climate change and is crucial to meeting
    future concerns for food security across the world.
    Increased nancing is necessary for all facets of water development, ranging from hard
    infrastructure to equally important soft items such as management; data collection, analysis
    and dissemination; regulation and other governance issues. The approach to nancing
    propounded in this chapter is pragmatic and eclectic. It examines eforts to minimize the
    funding gap through internal efciency and other measures; improve the generation of
    revenues from users, government budgets and ofcial development assistance (ODA); and
    use these ows to leverage repayable nance such as bonds, loans and equity.
    The current climate for international nance is difcult. It is therefore important to exploit all
    available risk-sharing tools. International nancing institutions (IFIs) in particular have a key
    role to play.
    311 WWDR4
    suchprojectseasier.Waterdevelopmentcanthusgain
    fromtheeconomicandnancialsynergiesthatstem
    fromthegreeneconomy.However,otheractionsjusti-
    edbytheirgreennessmayposeproblemsforwater
    managementunlesstheyfactorinandmitigatetheir
    potentialimpactonwater.Thepromotionofbiofuel
    technologiesisanexampleofthis.(Forimplications
    ofbiofueldevelopedforwaterresourcesmanagement
    anduseseeSaulino,2011.)Furthermore,toregardor
    compartmentalizewaterasasectoramongothersis
    toolimiting,inspiteofitspresenceasoneofthe11
    greeneconomysectors.
    Investmentinwaterinfrastructure,inbothitsphysical
    andnaturalassets,canbeadriverofgrowthandthe
    keytopovertyreduction(Garrido-Lecca,2010;UNEP,
    2010).Althoughtherecentglobaleconomiccrisisset
    backinvestmentinwaterinmanycountries(Winpenny
    etal.,2009),theimpactshavebeenvaried,andsome
    governmentshavemadedeterminedefortstocom-
    pensatethroughcounter-cyclicalscalmeasures.
    Greeninvestmentinrenewableenergy,energyefcien-
    cy,moreefcientuseofmaterials,cleantechnology,
    wastemitigation,andsustainableuseandrestoration
    ofecosystemsandbiodiversityaccountsforapproxi-
    mately20%oftheUS$2trillionofeconomicstimulus
    packagesannouncedsince2008.Waterisoneofthe
    beneciariesoftheseprogrammes,althoughitsfull
    importancehasnotbeenrecognized.
    UNCTADreportsthatthereisconsiderablescope
    fordevelopingeconomiesinthe[following]years
    anddecadestogainfromtheopportunitiesthatwill
    emergefromthestructuralchangetowardsrenewable
    sourcesofenergy,climate-friendlytechnologies,low-
    carbonequipmentandappliances,andmoresustain-
    ablemodesofconsumption(UNCTAD,2009,p.168).
    Entryintothesenewmarketscouldhelpdeveloping
    andtransitioneconomiestocombineclimatechange
    mitigationpolicieswithfastergrowthandthecrea-
    tionofemployment(UNEP,2008).Developedcoun-
    triesdominatetheglobalmarketforenvironmental
    goods,butsomedevelopingeconomiesarebuilding
    theirmarketsharebasedontheirnaturalcomparative
    advantages.
    12.1.1TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsand
    sustainabledevelopment
    Environmentalgoalscannotbeachievedwithoutde-
    velopmentandefciency.Poorpeoplewithoutad-
    equatefood,sustenanceandwaterandsanitation
    12.1Investinginwaterforsustainable
    development
    Arangeofemergingfactorsarechallengingenduring
    economicdevelopmentstereotypes.Theseincludethe
    responsetoclimatechange,destabilizinguctuations
    incommodityprices,concernsforfoodsecurity,the
    increasedroleofpublicinvestmentininfrastructurein
    responsetotheglobalnancialcrisis,andthedesireof
    governmentstolimittheirexposuretovolatileinterna-
    tionalnancialows.
    Thecurrentenvironmentalimprintofinfrastructure
    expansionissignicant.Itisthereforeimperativethat
    waysbefoundtodesign,operateandmaintainsys-
    temsthatminimizenegativeenvironmentalexternali-
    tiesatalowercostthanexistinginvestments(Fayand
    Toman,2010).Publicpoliciesshouldoferincentives
    forprivatesectordecisionsregardinginvestmentand
    consumptionthatreectthesocialbenetsofenviron-
    mentalsustainabilityandthecostsofvariousformsof
    environmentalprotection.Atagloballevelthereisa
    needtoincreaseenvironmentalresearchanddevelop-
    ment(R&D)andencouragetheinternationaltransfer
    ofcleanertechnologies.
    Thegreen economy agenda isaresponsetothese
    trendsandseekstoreinforceandacceleratethepro-
    gressofsustainabledevelopment.
    1
    Itinvolvespublic
    policy,individualandcollectivebusinessinitiativesand
    privatecustomerbehaviour.Theagendahasserious
    implicationsforwaterinfrastructure.Itincreasespres-
    sureformoreefcientuseofresourcesandreductions
    inwasteandgreenhousegasemissions,bothofwhich
    aimtoshiftinvestmentandconsumptionpatternsto-
    wardsalternativesthatdepletelessnaturalresources.
    Thereare11keygreeneconomysectors:agriculture,
    buildings,cities,energy,sheries,forestry,manufactur-
    ing,tourism,transport,wastemanagementandwater.
    2

    Thewaterdevelopmentagendaoverlapswiththegreen
    economyagendainthefollowingareas:pollutioncontrol,
    wastewatercollection,treatmentandreuse,successive
    usesofwater,wateruseefciency,energyefciencyin
    waterandwastewatertreatment,distributionandreuse,
    energyrecovery,emissionmitigation(captureofmeth-
    aneinwastewatertreatmentandirrigation),irrigation,
    andhydropowerandmanagementofnaturalwatereco-
    systems(includingwetlands).
    Alargepercentageoftheseprojectstargetseveralob-
    jectivessimultaneously.Thiscanoftenmakenancing
    INVESTMENTANDFINANCINGINWATERFORAMORESUSTAINABLEFUTURE
    312
    BOX 12.1
    Economicsofaccesstoimproveddrinkingwaterandsanitation
    willdegradetheirenvironmentiftheymustdosoto
    surviveevenifitriskstheirlong-termsurvival.Hence,
    sustainabledevelopmentgoalscannotbeachieved
    andmaintainedwithoutsoundenvironmentalmanage-
    ment.Investmentinprogrammesforpovertyreduction
    iscrucialforenvironmentalpolicy,whileinvestmentin
    maintainingahealthyenvironmentisvitalforsuccess-
    fulpovertyreduction.,However,investmentsremain
    seriouslyinadequateinmanyregionsofthedevelop-
    ingworldtomeettheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals
    (MDGs).
    TheUNMillenniumProjectandtheUNMillennium
    EcosystemAssessment(MA,2005;seeSection2.5)
    highlighttheinterdependenciesbetweeneconom-
    icdevelopmentandenvironmentalmanagementfor
    povertyreductionandgeneralwell-being.Thecom-
    binationofpoverty,vulnerabilitytodroughtandcrop
    failure,lackofsafedrinkingwater,andotherenviron-
    mentallyrelatedillsresultinthedeathsofmillionsof
    peopleeachyear.Over1billionpeoplesuferfromdis-
    easeduetoalackofsafewater,andareconsequently
    lessproductivethantheycouldbe.Thedesperatesitu-
    ationofthepoorthereforeexactsatollontheecon-
    omyaswellasontheirenvironmentanditsecosys-
    tem(Box12.1).Lentini(2010)presentsanoverviewfor
    evaluationofthediversebenetsofwaterservicesin
    atypicaldevelopingcountrysetting,especiallyforlow
    incomegroups.
    AlongsidetheUNsMDGsforendingpoverty,eradi-
    catinghunger,achievinguniversalprimaryeducation,
    improvinghealth,andrestoringahealthyenviron-
    ment,theMillenniumEcosystemAssessment(MA)
    examinestheconsequencesofecosystemchangefor
    humanwell-being,andanalysesoptionsforconserv-
    ingecosystemswhileenhancingtheircontributionsto
    humansociety.Environmentaldegradationisamajor
    barriertosustainabledevelopmentandtotheachieve-
    mentoftheMDGs.TheMAexamined24ecosystem
    services(thebenetspeopleobtainfromecosystems)
    andfoundthatproductivityofonlyfourhadbeen
    enhancedoverthelast50years,whereas15(includ-
    ingcapturesheries,waterpurication,naturalhazard
    regulation,andregionalclimateregulation)hadbeen
    degraded.Morethan70%ofthe1.1billionpoorpeople
    survivingonlessthanUS$1perdayliveinruralareas,
    wheretheyaredirectlydependentonecosystemser-
    vices.(SachsandReid,p.1002).
    Investinginenvironmentalassetsandthemanagement
    ofthoseassetscanhelpachievenationalgoalsfor
    relieffrompoverty,hungeranddisease.Investments
    inimprovedagriculturalpracticestoreducewater
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER12
    Improvingaccesstosafewaterandbasicsanitationcouldhavehugeeconomicreturns.WorldBankstudiesinveSouth-
    EastAsiancountriesestimatethataround2%oftheircombinedGDPsarelostbecauseofpoorsanitation,andintheworst
    case(Cambodia)thisgurerisestoover7%(WorldBank,2008).Economicbenetsduetoimprovementsinhealthinclude
    lowerhealthsystemcosts,fewerdayslostatworkoratschoolthroughillnessorcaringforanillrelative,andconvenience
    time-savings(Huttonetal.,2007).Thepreventionofsanitationandwater-relateddiseasescouldsaveapproximatelyUS$7
    billionperyearinhealthsystemcosts,andthevalueofdeathsaverted,basedondiscountedfutureearnings,wouldadda
    furtherUS$3.6billionperyear(Huttonetal.,2007).Infact,theWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)estimatesthattheoverall
    economicbenetsofhalvingtheproportionofpeoplewithoutsustainableaccesstoimproveddrinkingwaterandsanitation,
    by2015,wouldoutweightheinvestmentcostbyaratioof8:1(Prss-stnandCorvaln,2006).Despiteclearbenetsto
    thedevelopmentofindividualcountrieseconomiesandhealthfromincreasedaccesstosanitationanddrinkingwater,many
    countriesseemtoallocateinsufcientresourcestomeettheMillenniumDevelopmentGoaltargetforsanitationanddrinking
    water.Whencomparedtoothersectors(namelyeducationandhealthsectors),sanitationanddrinkingwaterreceivearela-
    tivelylowpriorityforbothofcialdevelopmentassistance(ODA)anddomesticallocations(WHO/UN-Water,2010,p.2).
    Infact,totalaidforallaspectsofwaterfellfrom8%to5%between1997and2008(WHO/UN-Water,2010).Moreover,do-
    mesticandforeignaidarenotnecessarilywelltargetedtowhereneedisgreatest(e.g.thepoorestandunderservedpopula-
    tions).Lessthanhalfofthefundingfromexternalsupportagenciesforwaterandsanitationgoestolowincomecountries,
    andasmallproportionofthesefundsisallocatedtotheprovisionofbasicservices,whereitwouldhavethegreatestimpact
    onachievingtheMDGtarget(WHO/UN-Water,2010).Stakeholdersmustcontinuetomaketheeconomicanddevelopment
    caseforincreasedinvestmentinsanitationandwater.Furthermore,researchmustcontinueontheappropriatelevelofre-
    sourcesforsanitationanddrinkingwater,comparedtoothersectors.
    313
    misinformationpublishedbygroupshavingspecialin-
    terests(SachsandReid,p.1002).
    12.2Fundinggovernance,institutional
    reformandmanagement
    Tofunctionproperlyandsustainably,allaspectsofwa-
    terresourcesmanagementandwatersupply-related
    servicesmustbefullyfunded.Thisnotonlyincludes
    thecreationandmaintenanceofphysicalinfrastruc-
    ture,butalsowaterresourcemanagement,environ-
    mentalprotectionandpollutionabatementmeasures,
    andlessvisiblefunctionssuchaspolicydevelopment,
    research,monitoring,administration,legislationen-
    forcement,provisionofpublicinformation,controlof
    corruptionandofconictsofinterest,andtheinvolve-
    mentofpublicstakeholders(seeChapter17).
    pollutioncanboostcoastalshingindustry.Wetlands
    protectioncanhelpmeetneedsofruralcommunities
    whileavoidingcostsofexpensiveoodcontrolinfra-
    structure.(SachsandReid,p.1002).
    Conversely,reachingenvironmentalgoalsrequirespro-
    gressineradicatingpoverty.Coherentandboldpover-
    tyreductionstrategiescaneaseenvironmentalstress-
    esbyslowingpopulationgrowthandenablingthe
    poortoinvestlongtermintheirenvironment.Periodic
    environmental/ecosystemassessmentswouldbehelp-
    fulinthiscontext.
    3
    Aglobalnetworkofrespected
    ecologists,economists,andsocialscientistsworkingto
    bringscienticknowledgetodecision-makersandto
    thepubliccanclarifythestateofscienticknowledge,
    helptomobilizeneededresearch,andcounterany
    WWDR4 INVESTMENTANDFINANCINGINWATERFORAMORESUSTAINABLEFUTURE
    BOX 12.2
    Costofadaptationtoclimatechangeforwater
    AWorldBankstudy(seeChapter24)hasevaluatedtheimpactofadaptingthewatersectortoclimatechangeindeveloping
    countries,overtheperiod20102050,basedonasocio-economicbaselineandtwoclimatechangescenarios,createdbythe
    CommonwealthScienticandIndustrialResearchOrganisation(CSIRO)inAustraliaandtheNationalCentreforAtmospheric
    Research(NCAR)intheUnitedStatesofAmerica.
    Theadaptivecostsweredenedintermsofhardoptionsincludingbuildingdamsanddykes,andsoftoptionssuchasthe
    useofearlywarningsystems,communitypreparednessprogrammes,watershedmanagement,andurbanandruralzoning.
    Thetablebelowrepresentsaverageannualwaterresourceadaptationscosts,combiningriverineoodprotectionandindus-
    trialandmunicipalrawwatersupply.Accordingtotheseestimates,measurestocopewiththeclimatescenariosimplyan
    annualincreaseinadaptationcostsofUS$1317billionfordevelopingcountriesasawhole.Thisrepresents3%oftheirGDPs.
    Africaistheworstafectedregion.
    Averageannualwaterresourceadaptationcosts(20102050)US$billions(%GDP)
    * The baseline year is 2050. Development baselines were crafted for each sector, essentially establishing a growth path in the absence of cli-
    mate change that determines sector-level performance indicators [using] a consistent set of GDP and population forecasts for 2010-50.
    (World Bank 2010a, p. 2)
    ** Figures of 0.00 are positive amounts, rounded to the nearest decimal point; they do not imply zero amounts.
    Note: Discount rate = 0%; negative values refer to net benets.
    Source: World Bank (2010d; 2011). Table data from World Bank (2010e, table 5.4, p. 41).
    Baseline* CC (net costs)**
    Region CSIRO** NCAR
    East Asia and Pacic 29.4 (0.06) 2.1 (0.00) 1.0 (0.00)
    Europe and Central Asia 15.8 (0.03) 0.3 (0.00) 2.3 (0.00)
    Latin America and Caribbean 13.4 (0.03) 3.2 (0.01) 5.5 (0.01)
    Middle East and North America 11.9 (0.02) 0.1 (0.00) -0.3 (0.00)
    South Asia 34.9 (0.07) 4.0 (0.01) -1.4 (0.00)
    Sub-Saharan Africa 9.8 (0.02) 7.2 (0.01) 6.2 (0.01)
    Total: developing country 115.1 (0.22) 16.9 (0.03) 13.3 (0.03)
    Total: non-developing country 56.2 (0.11) 7.4 (0.01) 13.3 (0.01)
    314
    Adequatelyfundedwatergovernanceisessentialto
    reduceuncertaintyandmanagerisks.Generatingdata
    forpolicy-makersandmanagers(observations,anal-
    ysis,modelling,scenario-building)helpstoinform
    decision-makersandreduceuncertainty.Efective
    governanceinareassuchasenvironmentalcontrols,
    groundwatermonitoringandabstractionlicensing,
    andmonitoringandpolicingofpollution,canreduce
    theriskofover-exploitationofwaterresourcesand
    catastrophicsurfacewaterpollutionandirreversible
    contaminationofaquifers.Someofthesegovernance
    functionscanbeself-nancedthroughabstractionand
    pollutioncharges.
    Thesameistrueofregulation.Bothpublicandpri-
    vatewateragencieswithoperationalfunctions
    shouldbesubjecttooversightfromindependent
    regulatorswithfullandtimelyaccesstorelevantin-
    formation.Far-sightedserviceprovidersrecognize
    thevalueofobjectiveandtransparentregulationin
    givingtheiractivitiesthepublicscrutinyandsanction
    necessarytoconferlegitimacyandprovideassurance
    againstarbitraryactionsforshort-termpoliticalgain.
    Manyregulatorsarefundedbyanearmarkedtaxon
    waterbills(e.g.EnglandandWales,andScotland)
    (seeChapter25).
    ThethirdeditionoftheWorld Water Development
    Report(WWAP,2009)highlightedtheneedtotran-
    scendthesilomentalityoftenfoundinwaterplan-
    ning,andtotakeaccountofthewiderimplicationsof
    waterdecisionsandtheimpactonwaterofdecisions
    takeninothereconomicsectors.Thisisacentralaim
    ofintegratedwaterresourcesmanagement(IWRM).
    Amongotherdevelopmentagencies,theWorldBank
    aimstouseitslendingprogrammestocreatecapac-
    ityforIWRMasawaytoovercometheinstitutional
    fragmentationwhichafectswater.Aspartofthisap-
    proach,theWorldBankisworkingtoincorporatethe
    cross-cuttingnatureofwaterinitscountryprogram-
    ming,andintegratewaterinterventionswithprojects
    inothersectors.Initswaterprogrammes,itintendsto
    makefocusonprojectslinkingdiferentcomponents,
    hithertofundedseparately,suchasresourcemanage-
    ment,services,waterqualityandecosystems(World
    Bank,2010b).
    Manywatergovernanceproblemsariseatthetrans-
    boundarylevel,whichisfraughtwithpotentialrisks
    andconicts.Capacity-buildingandmanagement
    supportfortransboundarywaterinstitutionsrequire
    properfunding.Thisistypicallydrawnfrommultilater-
    alandbilateralagencies,localgovernmentsandother
    sources,usuallyincombination.
    12.3Fundingforinformation
    Chapter6ofthisreportaddressestheneglectand
    declineofnationalobservationsystems,whichhave
    causedalossofvitalhydrologicaldata.Investmentin
    thetechnologyneededtoupgradecountrieswater
    andwater-relatedinformationbasescanresultingood
    returns.AsaresulttheWorldBankandotheragencies
    aretargetingthesesystemsforsupport(WorldBank,
    2010b).Suchinformationisofvitalnationalconcern,
    butalsoconstitutesaregional and international public
    good,albeitonewhichisseriouslyunderfunded,and
    thereforeunder-provided(Winpenny,2009,p.8).This
    isforthreemainreasons:
    Regional programmes and institutions involve co-
    operation between two or more neighbouring gov-
    ernments, often themselves poor, and which give
    transboundary issues a low priority compared to ur-
    gent national concerns. The problem is aggravated
    where neighbouring countries are at war with one
    another.
    4
    The attribution of benets to the diferent partner
    countries is difcult, hence sharing costs is prob-
    lematic, and hampers setting realistic budgets and
    funding modalities.
    5
    For such reasons both donors and recipients of
    Ofcial Development Aid (ODA) may view regional
    public goods as less desirable objects than national
    programmes. Donors may also prefer supporting in-
    ternational, rather than regional, public goods out of
    self-interest, since they may perceive greater ben-
    et accruing to themselves from actions of global
    concern. According to one estimate, only 3 to 4% of
    ODA goes to regional public goods, although such
    programmes can give high returns.
    ThisproblemisparticularlyacuteinAfrica:thereare
    morethan60transboundaryriversandinternational
    riverbasinscover60%ofthetotalareaoftheconti-
    nent.PracticallyallAfricanriverscrossseveralbor-
    ders:theNilecrossesten,theNigernine,theSenegal
    fourandtheZambezieight.Africanwatersecurity
    willrequiretheconstructionofregionalandshared
    infrastructureonalargescaleandthecoordinated
    managementofsharedwaterinfrastructure.Suchan
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER12
    315
    efortwillrequireagreatlystrengthenedinformation
    baseofregionalclimaticandhydrologicaldata.
    Betterhydrologicalinformationaboutriverregimes
    andgroundwaterreservesisessentialforreducing
    uncertaintyandanticipatingclimaticvariability,which
    hashadaheavycostinmanycountries.InKenya,
    lossesfromoodingfromElNioin19971998and
    droughtfromLaNiain19982000rangedfrom10
    to16%ofGDPduringthoseyears.GrowthofGDPin
    Mozambiquewasreducedby1%annuallyduetowa-
    tershocks.InZambia,hydrologicalvariabilityisesti-
    matedtoloweragriculturalgrowthby1%eachyear.
    Similarly,inTanzania,theimpactofthe2006drought
    onagriculturecausedlossesequivalentto1%ofGDP
    (McKinsey,2010).Reducingthedamagingimpactof
    thishydrologicalvariabilitywouldhavemajorbenets
    forthemacroeconomy(AICD,2010).Improvedweath-
    erandoodforecastingiscrucialtooodriskman-
    agement,especiallyinreducingtheimpactofoods.
    Investmentinweatherforecastingandhydrometeoro-
    logicalservicescanbehighlycost-benecial.
    Inwaterresourcesmanagement,forinstance,there
    isarealneedforbetterhydrologicalandmeteoro-
    logicalinformation.Thebasicdatashouldcomefrom
    systems(includingsatelliteobservations)operatedby
    nationalpublicandinternationalagencies.However,in
    manycasesagenciesfailtocollectorsharethedata.
    Privatecompaniescanalsoplayasignicantrolein
    thegeneration,interpretationandapplicationofsuch
    dataforappliedeconomicpurposes.InFrance,apri-
    vatecompany,Infoterra,providessatellitedataforthe
    analysisoffarmlandtoanticipatethelikelyimpactof
    climatechange.InGermany,aprivatesatelliteoperator,
    RapidEye,sellsdatatoinsurancecompaniesmarketing
    cropinsurancetogovernmentsincountriesatriskof
    droughtandfamine.Likewise,companiesactiveinoil
    explorationanddevelopmentoferunrivalledservices
    fortheprospectionandexploitationofgroundwater
    aquifers(Winpenny,2010).
    12.4Fundinginresponsetoclimatechange
    andgrowingwaterscarcity
    Projectionsrevealthattheannualcostofclimate
    changeadaptationindevelopingcountriesinthein-
    dustrialandmunicipalrawwatersupplysectorwould
    bebetweenUS$9.9US$10.9billion(net)andUS$18.5
    $19.3billion(gross).Costsforriverineoodprotection
    areprojectedatbetweenUS$3.5$5.9billion(net)and
    US$5.2$7.0billion(gross)
    6
    (Box12.2).
    Climatechangewillmainlybeexperiencedthrough
    greatervariabilityoftemperaturesandhydrological
    conditions.Adaptingtocurrentvariabilityisanimpor-
    tantrststepinmanycases.AstheIPCChasobserved,
    manyactionsthatfacilitateadaptationtoclimate
    changeareundertakentodealwithcurrentextreme
    events(Adgeretal.,2007,p.719).
    Greatervariabilityaround,andchangesin,thecli-
    maticmeanarelikelytobecompoundedbygreater
    uncertaintyovertheboundariesofvariation,thepos-
    sibleappearanceofnewfactors,andthepresence
    ofthresholds,irreversibilitiesandtippingpoints(see
    Chapter2).Uncertaintyhasmajorimplicationsforde-
    cisionanalysisandcriteria(Box12.3).
    Acommonelementofriskmanagement,inviewof
    theresidualuncertaintyabouttheimpactsofclimate
    changeandotherforcesdrivingchange,istheno re-
    gretcriterion:apolicythatwouldgeneratenetsocial
    and/oreconomicbenetirrespectiveofwhatchange
    occurs.Examplesincludedemandmanagementmeas-
    ures;improvementsintheefciencyofwaterdistribu-
    tion;wastewaterrecycling;earlywarningsystemsfor
    oods,droughts,andotherextremeweatherevents;
    andrisk-spreadingthroughinsuranceschemes.
    Althoughno-regretprojectscanbejustiedinnanc-
    ingterms,independentoftherisksanduncertainties
    theyface,therearemanyreasonswhytheymaynot
    happen:lackofprojectpreparation,shortageofcapi-
    talandcredit,andamisalignmentofsocialbenets
    withnancialincentivesforsponsors.Thesefactorsare
    seeninwaterdemand-managementprogrammes,for
    example,incaseswherebothhouseholdandindustrial
    usersseemreluctanttotakeupappliancesandtech-
    nologiesthat,onpaperatleast,promiserapidpay-
    back.No-regretprojectsmaybeattractiveintheory,
    butmaystillrequireactivepromotion.Climatechange
    impactsmaylendthemtheextrabenetsandimpetus
    theyneedtomakethemareality.
    Incomparison,projectsjustiedsolelyonthebasis
    ofexpectedclimatechangewouldonlybejustiable
    ifthepredictionsofclimaticandhydrologicalmodels
    provedaccurate.Suchprojectsincludeconstruction
    ofnewstorageandsupplyinfrastructure,retrotting
    ofexistingstructures,alteringoperationalprotocols,
    anddevelopingnewwatersourcesandwatertransfers.
    Suchclimate-justiedprojectsandpolicieshaveto
    beplannedandimplementedagainstthebackdropof
    WWDR4 INVESTMENTANDFINANCINGINWATERFORAMORESUSTAINABLEFUTURE
    316
    anuncertainfuture.Thekeycriteriafortheseprojects
    areresilience,robustness,exibilityandintelligence
    (theabilitytoprovideservicesormanagementovera
    rangeofpossibleconditions).Dependingoncircum-
    stances,someoftheseprojectsmayhavebenets
    outsideofaclimatechangescenario.AstheIPCCob-
    serves,adaptationmeasuresareseldomundertakenin
    responsetoclimatechangealone(Adgeretal.,2007,
    p.719).
    Ensuringthecapacitytocopewiththegreatervari-
    abilityanduncertaintycausedbyclimatechangeand
    otherchangeforces(seeChapters1and9)constitutea
    broadchallengeforwaterinfrastructure.Themeasures
    requiredwillposeseveretestsforgovernments,pub-
    licagenciesandinternationalresearchinstitutes.Their
    efortswillneedtobesupplementedbytheactions
    ofprivate,non-governmentalbodiesofallkinds,who
    canaddvaluethoughextraresources,diferentwaysof
    working,newapproachesandinnovativeproducts.
    Adaptationandmitigationprojectsimplementedby
    publicagenciescandrawonarangeofdevelopment
    funds,includingnewadaptationfundscreatedforthis
    specicpurpose.Therearecurrentlyover20special-
    izedclimatechangefundsaccessibletopublicagen-
    cies.
    7
    Leavingasidethosefundsspecializinginforestry
    orenergy,aroundadozenfundsareavailableforad-
    aptationforwater,amongstothersectors.Ofparticular
    relevanceisthefundingprovidedbythePilotProgram
    forClimateResilience(PPCR),sponsoredbytheWorld
    BankandothermajorIFIs:
    The pilot programs and projects implemented under
    the PPCR are country-led, and build on National
    Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPA) and other
    relevant country studies and strategies. They are
    strategically aligned with other donor-funded activ-
    ities to provide nancing for projects that will pro-
    duce experience and knowledge useful to designing
    scale-up adaptation measures. (CIF, 2011)
    Specically,fundingisavailablethroughPPCRfor
    technicalassistancetoassistdevelopingcountriesin
    integratingclimateresilienceconsiderationsintona-
    tionaldevelopmentplanning(CIF,2011).
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER12
    Source: Reproduced from Winpenny (2010, pp. 12).
    Note: Sensitivity analysis measures the impact on a projects rate of return of a change in a specic variable. Switching values are the change in
    a specic variable required to reduce the rate of return to zero. Risk-benet analysis compares the risk of action (= its cost) with the benet of
    action (= avoided loss).
    Minimax = minimizing the maximum expected loss; maximin = maximizing the minimum likely outcome; minimum regret = minimizing the
    diference between the worst possible outcome and others.
    BOX 12.3
    Implicationsofclimatechangeuncertaintyfordecision-making
    Greatervariabilityandfundamentaluncertaintywouldhaveprofoundimplicationsfordecisionsaboutwaterinfrastructure,
    whichtypicallyhasalongphysicallife.Theseimplicationsareatvariouslevels,andofdiferentkinds:
    Theclimate riskofsuchinfrastructureshouldbeassessed,atasectorand/orprojectlevel.
    Traditionalwaysofdealingwithriskincostbenet analysisneedtobefullyexploited:thesemethodsincludesensitivity
    analysis,switchingvalues,andrisk-benetanalysis.
    Decisionrulesshouldbeusedthattakeintoaccounttherisk preferencesoftheagencyconcerned(minimax,maximin,mini-
    mumregret)(BenTaletal.,2009).
    Thesetraditionalaidstodecision-makingunderuncertaintyandriskneedtobecomplementedbytheuseofscenario build-
    ing, whichconstructsaseriesofplausiblefutures,whichcouldnotnecessarilyhavebeenpredictedbyextrapolationfrom
    currenttrends.Projectswhichstandupwellondiferentscenariosareconsideredtoberobust(WorldBank,2010a).
    Project designneedstoallowforgreaterclimaticvariability,andberesilientindealingwitheventsthatcannotbeforeseenas
    yet.Theinitialcostofbuildinginresilience(e.g.greaterstorage,whichmaynotbeneeded;orforfeitingcurrenteconomiesof
    scaleinfavourofgreaterfreedomofmanoeuvreinfuture)couldberegardedasaninsurancepremiumtoavoidfuturelosses
    intheCCscenario.
    317
    Thereisariskthattheseclimatechangefundsmight
    addtotheadministrativeburdensplacedonrecipi-
    ents(Porteretal.,2008).Suchfundscanbeuseful
    sourcesofmoneyforpilotprojects(e.g.thePPCR),
    butatacountrylevelthereisastrongcaseformain-
    streamingadaptationasmuchaspossible,rather
    thanconsigningittoamarginalpartofthepublic
    investmentprogramme,requiringitsownprocedures
    andcriteria.
    Muchoftheadaptationandmitigationefort,however,
    willfalltoprivatecompanies,farmersandhouseholds,
    aswellassubsovereignagenciesthatcannotaccess
    thesedevelopmentfunds.Forthem,commercial-
    nancialsourcesarecritical.Micronanceisparticularly
    suitablefornancingtheimprovementofirrigation
    efciencyforsmallfarmers.Certainformsofcontract
    canalsobefundedbyquasi-equity,inwhichrewards
    dependonthesuccessfulachievementofprojectaims,
    forexample,performance-relatedcontractsforwater
    leakagereduction.
    12.5Fundingdiversicationanddemand
    management
    Diversifyingthesourcesofwaterbyincreasingtheuse
    oftechnologies,suchasdesalinationandreclaimed
    waterandpromotingself-supplybyusers(farmers,
    householdsandcompanies)canreduceanddistribute
    risk,comparedwithrelyingonafewsourcesthatare
    dependentonthesamehydrologicalsystem.Someof
    theseareeasiertonancefromconventionalmeans
    thanothers.Desalinationplantsandcertainprojects
    fortheuseofreclaimedwater,whichentailsizeable
    investmentinwastewatertreatmentplants(WWTPs),
    lendthemselvestopublicsectororstand-alonecom-
    mercialventuresfundedfromequityandcommercial
    nancetypicallyunderaformofconcessioncon-
    tract.InMexico,theAtotonilcoWWTPre-usestreated
    urbanwastewaterinirrigation.Underthetermsofa
    recentcontract,bidswereinvitedunderabuild-oper-
    ate-transfer(BOT)structure,with49%ofcostscoming
    fromtheNationalInfrastructureFundandtheremain-
    derfromtheprivateconcessionaire.TheMatahuala
    andElMorroWWTPshavesimilaraimsandnancing
    structures:design-build-operate-transfer(DBOT)and
    BOT,respectively(GWI,2009,pp.512).
    Dealingwithfuturewaterdecitswillalsorequire
    actiononthedemandside.Demandmanagement
    needsadiferentapproachtonancing.InSouth
    Africa,currenttrajectoriesandpoliciesproduceurban,
    agriculturalandindustrialgrowthprojectionsto
    2030incompatiblewiththecountryswaterendow-
    ment.Inthebasecasescenario,SouthAfricafaces
    agapbetweenprojected2030demandandcurrent
    supplyequivalentto17%ofdemand.Moreover,the
    impactofclimatechangemightincreasethesizeof
    thisgap.Competitionforlimitedwatersupplieswill
    intensifyineachofthebasinsfeedingthelargestcit-
    ies(Johannesburg,Pretoria,DurbanandCapeTown).
    Householddemandisexpectedtoincreaseasare-
    sultofincomegrowthandimprovedservicecover-
    age.ThecurrentplanningscenariofortheVaalsystem
    (Johannesburg,Pretoriaandsurroundingareas)as-
    sumesthatdemandmanagementwillreducedemand
    increasesunderabusiness-as-usual(BAU)scenarioby
    15%(althoughthatisnotyethappening),whichwill
    generatesubstantialinvestmentburdens.Agriculture
    isnotseenasamajorgrowthsector,althoughitswa-
    terallocationmayneedtodecrease,implyinggreater
    efciencyinitsuse.Meanwhile,industry,powergen-
    eration,miningandagriculturethesectorsthatwill
    drivetheincomegrowthareallwater-intensive.
    Closingtheprojectedsupply-demandgapforwater
    in2030andtherebyenablingSouthAfricasgrowth
    potentialtoberealizedcanbeachievedwithaportfo-
    lioofdiferentmeasures:supply-sidetransferschemes,
    newdamsandmodicationstoexistingstructures,re-
    engineeringofexistingirrigationschemestoincrease
    waterefciency,andbetteruseofwaterinminingand
    industrialcompanies.Inshort,abalanceofsupply-side
    anddemandmanagementmeasuresareneeded.Much
    ofthecostofdemandmanagementfallsonconsumers
    households,farmersandindustriesandisnanced
    largelybythem,thoughgovernmentscanhelpwith
    subsidiesandtaxbreaks(McKinsey,2010).
    WWDR4 INVESTMENTANDFINANCINGINWATERFORAMORESUSTAINABLEFUTURE
    Micronance is
    particularly suitable
    for nancing the
    improvement of
    irrigation efciency for
    small farmers.
    318
    12.6Generatingnanceforwater
    infrastructureandservices
    Allcountriesateverylevelofdevelopmentfaceheavy
    costsincreatingawaterinfrastructurethatistfor
    purpose,whichcanaddressthegrowingchallenges
    andrisksidentiedthroughoutthisreport.
    AccordingtoarecentWorldBankStudy(2010c),the
    globalnancialcrisishasnegativelyimpactedprogress
    towardsfulllingtheMDGs.Thecrisiswillalsopo-
    tentiallymagnifythealreadylargeinvestmentneeds.
    Usingthreemacroeconomicscenariostoillustratethe
    risksinvolved,thereportrevealsthatseriousglobal
    shortfallsareloominginwaterdevelopmentindica-
    tors.Accordingtooneprojectionfor2015,100million
    morepeoplewillloseaccesstosafedrinkingwater.A
    rethinkinginnancingstrategiesisthereforerequired
    toensurethatimprovementinpublicexpenditureef-
    ciencyresultsinadditionalresources.
    TheAfricanInfrastructureCountryDiagnostic(AICD,
    2010)determinestheinvestmentneedsininfrastruc-
    tureinsub-SaharanAfrica.Thistoolassistspolicy-
    makerstosetprioritiesforinvestmentinallinfrastruc-
    turesectorsandprovidesabaselineformonitoring
    progress.TheAICDestimatesthatUS$22billion
    peryear(approximately3.3%ofAfricasGDP)isthe
    amountrequiredtoattaintheMDGsinwaterandsani-
    tation.Theseestimates,basedonminimumacceptable
    assetstandards,includeanannualcapitalexpenditure
    ofUS$15billionandoperatingexpendituresofaround
    US$7million.Theseguresdonotincludethecostof
    investmentinhydropowerorirrigation.Similaresti-
    matesforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanareavail-
    ableinanIDBstudy(2010)DrinkingWater,Sanitation,
    andtheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsinLatin
    AmericaandtheCaribbean.
    Apragmaticandeclecticapproachisrequiredtoraise
    thesumsneeded.Therststepshouldbetosqueeze
    thenancingrequirementstoaminimumthroughim-
    provementsinefciency,bettercollectionsofrevenues
    due,andadjustmentstoservicelevelsandtechno-
    logicalsolutions(AICD,2010).Thesecondstepisto
    improvetherateofsustainable cost recoverybyraising
    tarifrevenues,budgetaryallocationsduefromgov-
    ernmentsandODA.Inthiscontext,thewillingnessto
    payofwaterusersmaywellbegreaterthanthewill-
    ingnesstochargeofpoliticians.Thethirdstepistouse
    theserevenuestoattractrepayablesourcesoffunds,
    usingavailabledevicesforthereduction,mitigation
    andsharingofwaternancingrisks(Winpenny,2003;
    OECD,2010aamongothers).
    Raisingcommercialnanceforwaterhasbecome
    moredifcultduetotheglobalnancialsituationsince
    2007,which
    has discouraged new private interest in water infra-
    structure projects, and has also unsettled partners
    in existing private public partnership (PPP) ven-
    tures. Earlier in 2009 the IFC reported that US$200
    billion of PSP projects had been postponed or had
    become at risk, 1520% of which were in water
    supply and sanitation. The nancial climate afect-
    ed both the supply of risk capital (e.g. equity) and
    loan capital to nance these concession deals, since
    liquidity has become scarce, and the problems of
    international banks have had repercussions on local
    banks too. Many innovative deals, developed with
    technical assistance and risk-sharing from donor
    agencies, are at risk. (Winpenny et al., 2009, p. 18)
    ThePrivateParticipationinInfrastructure(PPI)data-
    base,maintainedbytheWorldBankandthePublic-
    PrivateInfrastructureAdvisoryFacility,reportedthatin
    2009thenumberofwaterprojectsreachingnancial
    orcontractualclosurehaddeclinedby46%compared
    with2008,andthatannualinvestmentcommitments
    hadfallenby31%overthesameperiod.In2009,35
    waterprojectswithprivateparticipationwereimple-
    mentedinsevenlowormiddleincomecountries,in-
    volvinginvestmentofaroundUS$2billion.However,
    threecountries(Algeria,ChinaandJordan)accounted
    formostofthisactivity(seeChapter24).
    Many projects that were close to nancial closure
    when the crisis broke have survived by switch-
    ing their sources of funding to local public banks
    or agencies. Even when the nancial crisis abates
    nancing terms for PSP deals in water and other
    sectors are likely to remain harsh, and will call for
    more conservative project nancing structures
    (i.e. more equity, less debt, more risk mitigation)
    These developments are occurring against (and
    reinforce) a gathering trend towards more selectiv-
    ity in the choice of markets and type of project by
    the handful of western multinationals that remain in
    the market for new international water concessions.
    (Winpenny et al., 2009, p. 18)
    However,thesemultinationalsareincreasinglyjoined
    bymorerecentmarketentrantsfromLatinAmerica,
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER12
    319
    theMiddleEast,SoutheastandEastAsiaandelse-
    where(Winpenny,2006).
    Public-privatepartnerships(PPPs)inurbanwater
    utilitieshavehadamixedrecordindevelopingcoun-
    tries,withrelativesuccessinsome(mainlyinChile)
    andproblemsinothers(e.g.ArgentinaandBolivia)
    (Jouravlev,2004;Ducci,2007;Lentini,2011)andin
    increasingefciencythanindirectlybringingnew-
    nance(Marin,2009).Thisisparticularlyrelevantas
    manyurbanwatertransmissionanddistributionsys-
    temsarehighlyinefcientintheiruseofwaterand
    energy(AICD,2010;Kingdometal.,2006).Improved
    costcontrolandbettercashowinutilitieswillindi-
    rectlyincreasetheirabilitytoraisetheirownnance.
    Thisalsohasimplicationsforenergycosts.Wateris
    alargeandgenerallyinefcientconsumerofenergy.
    Thisconstitutesasizeablepercentageofwaterdelivery
    cost,evenatthesubeconomicelectricitypricesthat
    oftenapply.Theuseofmoremarginalsourcesaswater
    becomesscarcerwillincreasetheenergyrequirement
    forsourcingandtreatment(GWI,2009).
    Anotherpotentialsourceofnancewouldbeim-
    provingtherateofcollectionofwaterbills.InAfrica,
    under-collectionisvaluedatUS$0.5billionannu-
    ally.Improvingthecollectionrateisanobviousway
    ofincreasingwaterrevenueswithoutraisingtarifs.
    AlthoughthebetterperformingwaterutilitiesinAfrica
    normallymanagecollectionratesof80%ormore
    (Mehtaetal.,2009),persistentnon-payment,espe-
    ciallybypublicdepartmentsandagencies,leavesabig
    holeintheaccountsofwaterauthoritiesnormallybe
    expectedtobeself-sufcient.
    Internationalnancialeventssince2007haveconsoli-
    datedthepositionofnationalandinternationalpublic
    agenciesasimportantsourcesofnanceforwaterin-
    frastructure.Thoughmanynationalgovernmentsare
    constrainedbytheirscalposition,othershaveben-
    etedfromstrongcommoditypricesandhaveused
    theirscalresourcestoinvestininfrastructure,includ-
    ingwater(Winpennyetal.,2009).Althoughtheshare
    ofwaterintotalODAhasdeclinedsincethemid-1990s,
    theabsolute volumeofODAhasstartedtorise(Box
    12.4).In20072008,thebilateralannualaidcommit-
    mentsofDACcountriestowaterandsanitationrose
    toUS$5.3billion.Includingconcessionaloutowsof
    multilateralagenciesthetotalODAforwaterandsani-
    tationforthatperiodwasUS$7.2billion(OECD-DAC,
    2010),comparedwithUS$5.6billionin2006.
    InadditiontoODA,whichinthecaseofwaterand
    sanitationisevenlysplitbetweengrantsandsoft
    loans(OECD-DAC,2010),publicinternationaldevel-
    opmentbanks(WorldBank,regionaldevelopment
    banks,EuropeanInvestmentBank)oferingloanson
    attractivetermshaveregainedsomemarketsharefor
    infrastructurenanceduringtherecentnancialcrisis,
    takingadvantageoftheabsenceofcommerciallend-
    ers(e.g.WorldBank,2010b).TheAsianandMiddle
    Easternsovereignwealthfundsandpubliclysponsored
    companiesareanadditionalandincreasinglyimpor-
    tantsourceofmoneyforthedevelopmentofnatural
    resourcesandinfrastructure(ICA,2007).Theabove-
    mentionedpublicsourcesofgrantandcommercial
    nancearelikelytoremainimportantfundersofbig
    waterinfrastructureprojects,especiallyinAfrica.
    Nearlyalltherevenuesgeneratedbywateraccrue
    inlocalcurrency(withtheexceptionoftransbound-
    arywaterandpowersales,andtheindirectbenet
    toforeignexchangethroughexportsofproduce).
    WWDR4 INVESTMENTANDFINANCINGINWATERFORAMORESUSTAINABLEFUTURE
    Source: OECD (2010b).
    BOX 12.4
    Increasingaidtowaterandsanitation:2002-2008
    Aidtowaterandsanitationhasbeenrisingsharplysince
    the2002-2003reportingperiod,fromtotalaveragecom-
    mitmentsofUS$3.3billiontoUS$7.2billionin2007-2008
    (lastreportedperiodandincludesDACmembercoun-
    triescontributionsandmultilateralagenciesconcessional
    ows).AmongDACmembersthelargestdonorsforthis
    lastreportedperiodwereJapan(onaverageUS$1.9bil-
    lionperyear),Germany(US$771million)andtheUSA
    (US$644million).Overtheperiod20032008aidtowa-
    terandsanitationprimarilytargetedregionsmostinneed
    ofimprovedaccesstowaterandsanitation:sub-Saharan
    Africareceived29%oftotalaidtothesector,andSouth
    andCentralAsia18%.Poorestcountriesclassiedaslow
    incomereceived43%oftotalaidtothesector,two-thirds
    ofwhichwasintheformofgrants.Projectsforthecat-
    egorydenedaslargesystemsarepredominantand
    accountedfor57%oftotalcontributionstothewaterand
    sanitationsectorin2007-08.68%oftotalODAforlarge
    systemswasintheformofloans,andloansalsorepre-
    sented33%ofthenancingforriverdevelopment.By
    contrast,donorsreliedalmostexclusivelyonODAgrants
    (90%oftotal)tonancebasicdrinkingwaterandsanita-
    tion.Grantswerealsopredominantinthesubsectorsof
    waterresourcespolicyandadministrativemanagement,
    waterresourcesprotectionandeducationandtraining.
    320
    Thisintroducesaforeignexchangeriskintoloans
    andequitycapitalraisedexternally,evenonfavour-
    ablenancingterms(e.g.fromIFIs).Devaluationhas
    beencatastrophicforsomehigh-proleinternational
    waterconcessions
    8
    needingtoservicetheirdebtin
    foreigncurrency,andisaseriouspotentialriskforall
    waterprojectsandproviders,bothprivateandpub-
    lic.Hedgingagainstdevaluationriskisnotapractical
    proposition.Themoresustainablelong-termsolution
    istogeneratemoreinternalrevenuesfromtarifs,and
    torelyasmuchaspossibleonlocalnancialandcapi-
    talmarkets,assuggestedbyexperiencesinChileand
    Brazil(Jouravlev,2004;Lentini,2011).Anumberofdo-
    norsandIFIsoferrisk-sharingproducts(seeSection
    12.7)toencouragethegrowthoflocalcurrencynance
    forwaterandotherinfrastructure.
    9
    12.7Mitigatingnancialandpoliticalrisks
    Manylocalwaterutilitiesarefundedwithrevenuesfrom
    usersorpublicbudgetsinsufcienttoexceedtheirday-
    to-dayoperatingcosts.Asaresult,theylackadequate
    cashowtoborrowmoney.Suchutilitiescannotfund
    long-terminvestmentsiftheydonotreceivegrantsub-
    sidies.However,manythatmighthaveadequatecash
    owsremainunabletonanceinvestmentsthrough
    borrowings,eitherbecauselendersperceivethemasan
    unacceptableriskorbecausetheirpotentialratingre-
    sultsinloanswithshorttermsandhighinterestrates.
    Financialmarketshaveavarietyofwaysofdealingwith
    therisksforlendersandinvestorsdiscussedinthisre-
    port.Insuranceandguaranteescancoverpolitical,con-
    tractual,regulatoryandcreditriskfrombothmultilateral
    andbilateraldevelopmentagencies.Theseguaran-
    teeshaveadevelopmentmotive,asopposedtoexport
    creditandinvestmentinsurance,limitedtormsdomi-
    ciledinthecountryoferingtheguarantee,whichhasa
    commercialaim.Thereisalsoalargeandactiveprivate
    marketoferinginsuranceagainstpolitical,contractual
    andcreditrisks.Inadditiontotheseexternalguarantees,
    sovereignguaranteesarethoseoferedbynationalgov-
    ernmentstotheirowncitizens,companiesorsubsover-
    eignbodieswhentheyborroworattractdirectinvest-
    ment.Certainotherinstrumentshaveaquasi-guarantee
    status,suchastheumbrellasofcomfortwhichIFIsand
    otheragencieserectoverotherlendersandinvestors
    throughparticipations(Bloans)andMunicipalSupport
    Agreements(Winpenny,2005).
    10
    Politicalrisksafectnotonlylendersandinvestors.
    Theyalsoimpactwaterutilitieswhichdependon
    politicaldecisionsforsettingrulesandobjectives,x-
    ingtarifsorallocatingsubsidies.Waterutilitiescan
    onlynanceinvestmentthroughborrowingsiftheir
    revenuesaresufcientlypredictable.Manyinvest-
    mentsaredelayedbyafailureoftenforpoliticalrea-
    sonstoadjusttarifstochangesineconomiccon-
    ditions.Publicsubsidiesthatcannotbeanticipated
    cannotformthebasisforborrowing.
    Guaranteesworkinvariousways:mitigatingspecic
    riskswhicharethecriticalstickingpointsonaproject;
    enhancingsecurities(e.g.bonds)totakethemovera
    criticalthresholdofcreditworthiness;improvingthe
    termsonwhichborrowersandprojectsponsorscan
    getaccesstoloansandinvestment;andgivinglenders
    andinvestorsexposuretopreviouslyunfamiliarmar-
    ketsandproducts(Winpenny,2005;Matsukawaand
    Habeck,2007;OECD,2010a).
    Guaranteesforinvestmentinwaterservicesprojectshave
    notbeenwidelyadopted,comparedwithothersectors.
    Of124guaranteesissuedsince2001byIFIs,onlyfour
    wereissuedforwatersupplyandsanitationprojects.This
    outcomeisamixtureofgovernanceandincentivefactors
    afectingboththesupplyoffundsfromtheoriginating
    agenciesandtheattitudesandpracticesofborrowers
    andhostgovernments.Guaranteescanmitigatespecic
    risks,butcannotofsetothernegativeprojectfundamen-
    talsoftenpresentinwaterservices(Winpenny,2005;
    MatsukawaandHabeck,2007;OECD,2010a).However,
    theycanformacrucialfeatureofcomplexstrategicin-
    frastructurenancepackages,suchastheNamTheun
    HydroProjectinLaoPDR.TheWorldBanksMultilateral
    InvestmentGuaranteeAgency(MIGA)investmentguar-
    anteesagainstpoliticalandspecicregulatoryriskhave
    alsoprovedhelpfultothenancingofwaterprojects
    (WorldBank,2010b).
    Poolingmechanismsareanotherdevicetoreduceper-
    ceivedrisks.Somecountrieshavedevelopednational
    revolvingfunds,followingthewell-establishedmodel
    usedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.Anotherexample
    isthedecisiontakenbyagroupofcommunities
    inColombiain2010toformatrust,whichissueda
    US$92millionpeso-denominatedbondtodomestic
    investorsontheColombianstockexchange.Thedeal,
    doneundertheauspicesofColombiaInfrastructure
    GroupLLC,allowedsmallandmedium-sizedmunici-
    palitiesaccesstolong-datedfundsatcompetitive
    rates,withtheexpresspurposeoffundinglocalwater
    andwastewaterprojects(GWI,2010).
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER12
    321
    Allpotentialnanciersareconcernedwithmanaging
    thereputationalriskentailedbycertaintypesofinfra-
    structureprojects.TheWorldBanktermssuchprojects
    highrisk-highreward.ThetypicalIFIresponseisto
    developanextensivesetofprocessesandoperational
    policiestoensurethathighrisk-highreward(HRHR)
    projectsrisksareappropriatelyaddressedandmitigat-
    ed(WorldBank,2010b).
    Asageneralprinciple,theriskofnancialdefaultcan
    bemanagedbytailoringnancialtermstotherisk
    proleandexpectedcashowoftheprojectcon-
    cerned.Forlargeandcomplexprojectsitisbecoming
    commontoblenddiferenttypesofnance(com-
    mercialloans,concessionaryloans,grants,equity)
    toachieveanacceptableoverallmix.Anumberof
    internationalplatformsnowexist(e.g.theEU-Africa
    InfrastructureTrustFundandtheEUNeighbourhood
    InvestmentFacility)tofundmajorinfrastructurepro-
    jectsontermsappropriatetoborrowersrepayment
    abilityandthespecicrisksineachcase.
    Anotherriskmanagementapproachistoallowthe
    nancialtermstoadjusttotheoutcomeofaproject.
    Convertible loanscanbeconvertedintoequitywhen
    cashowwouldotherwisecausedebt-servicingprob-
    lems.Theinterestrateonsomeloansisindexedtothe
    priceofthegoodorserviceprovidedbytheproject,
    wherethisisoutsidethecontrolofthesponsor.
    Anotheroutcome-orientednancialdeviceisoutput-
    based aid (OBA),whichisonlyreleasedtothesponsor
    whenaprojectiscompletedandupandrunning.The
    sponsorhastheassurancethatthegrantwillbeforth-
    cominginduecourse,enablingcommercialnanceto
    beraised,buttheclients(localgovernmentandinter-
    nationalagencies)havetheassurancethattheirfunds
    willnotbewasted.Therearecurrently31projectswith
    OBAfromtheWorldBankinwatersupplyandsanita-
    tion(WorldBank,2010b).
    Amongotherinnovativefundingmethodstocope
    withtheheightenedrisksofwatermanagementare
    indexinsuranceandweatherderivativesforfarmers
    (Winpenny,2010).Otherriskmitigationmethodsin-
    cludeoptionsonwaterstoredinreservoirsandcon-
    tractoptionsboughtbyurbanwaterauthoritiesfor
    theuseoffarmerswaterrightsintimesofdrought.
    Allthesemethodsprovideinsuranceagainstwa-
    tervariability,whileavoidingtheheavycostsofnew
    infrastructure.
    Arecentreviewofinnovativenanceforwaternotes
    thatcommercialfundingofalltypeshassuferedfrom
    globalnancialturmoil.Instruments,suchasguar-
    anteeshavebeenunderutilized,andthecredibility
    ofcomplexstructurednancialproductshasbeen
    weakened.Thelong-termowofcommercial,includ-
    ingprivate,nancetowaterdependsonreformstoits
    governanceandoperation,andnovelformsofnance
    willremainlimitedbythisconstraint.However,thereis
    considerablescopeforblendingpublicgrantandcon-
    cessionalfundswithcommercialsources,asnotedin
    theexamplesabove(OECD,2010a).
    Conclusion
    Water,initsvariousforms,willneedtoattractmuch
    morenancethanitcurrentlyreceivesifitistoover-
    comeitscurrentunder-funding,supportthefutureex-
    pansionoffoodproduction,supplytheneedsofgrow-
    ingpopulationsincludingthoseinthepost-2015MDG
    targets,andcontinueperformingalltheotherservices
    itprovidestoamodern,growingeconomy.Thenew
    impetustocreateagreeneconomyofersopportu-
    nities,aswellaschallenges,forthemanagementof
    water.Climatechangesetsitsownagenda,inaddition
    toandpartiallyoverlappingwiththeabove,involving
    themitigationofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsand
    theadaptationofwaterinfrastructureandservices.
    Waterisalsocentraltodisasterpreparedness,whichis
    likelytoincreaseinimportanceforanyfutureclimate
    scenario.
    Onebasicreasonwhywaterdoesnotreceivesuf-
    cientfundingisthatitsscopeisoftenviewedtoonar-
    rowly,whereasinrealityitunderpinsawiderangeof
    WWDR4 INVESTMENTANDFINANCINGINWATERFORAMORESUSTAINABLEFUTURE
    A precondition of
    adequate nancing
    for water is a full
    appreciation of the
    social and economic
    purposes that it
    serves.
    322
    economicsectors,allofwhichwouldbethreatenedby
    waterscarcity,pollutionorpressuresfromtheother
    driversdescribedinthisreport.Hence,aprecondition
    ofadequatenancingforwaterisafullappreciationof
    thesocialandeconomicpurposesthatitserves.
    Evenwiththis,however,thenancialclimateforwater
    willremainchallengingandwillcallforapragmaticand
    eclecticapproachtofunding.Thischapteroutlinessuch
    anapproach,involvingamixtureofefciencymeas-
    ures,reviewofstandardsandtechnologicaloptions,
    improvedratesofcollection,bettercostrecoveryfrom
    waterusers,morepredictablegovernmentbudgetary
    allocationsandODA,andtheintelligentuseofsuchba-
    sicrevenuestoattractrepayablefundingsourcesusing
    thearrayofrisk-sharingdevicesnowavailable.

    Notes
    1 Agreeneconomyisaneconomythatresultsinimproved
    humanwell-beingandreducedinequalitiesoverthelong
    term,whilenotexposingfuturegenerationstosignicant
    environmentalrisksandecologicalscarcities(UNEP,2010,p.4).
    2 Formoreinformationseehttp://www.unep.org/GreenEconomy/
    Portals/93/documents/Full_GER_screen.pdf
    3 PossiblymodelledontheUNMillenniumAssessmentreports,
    theGEOseries,ortheOECDsEnvironmentalOutlooks.
    4 ControlofthedesertlocustinSaheliancountrieshasbeen
    severelyhamperedbythedeclineofregionalinformation
    andmonitoringsystems,dueinparttocivilunrestandarmed
    conictendemicinborderregionsinthesecountries.
    5 Birdsall(2006)citestheSouthernAfricaPowerPool,theBaltic
    Seacleanup,thecontrolofonchocerciasisintheSahel,andthe
    controlofChagasdiseaseinLatinAmerica.
    6 Grosscostsincludeallcostsincurredbyadaptationtoclimate
    change.Netcostsallowfor(i.e.deductfromgross)any
    negativecosts(i.e.costsavings)thatmayarisefromclimate
    change.Themethodusedinthisstudynetsoutpositiveand
    negativecostitemsforeachcountry,butnotacrosscountries
    withinaregion(WorldBank,2010c:pp.3,54,andelsewhere).
    7 Formoreinformationseehttp://www.climatefundsupdate.org/
    listing
    8 BuenosAires,theoriginalWestManilaconcession,andJakarta.
    TheWestManilaconcessioninheritedearlierdebtowedtothe
    WorldBankandAsianDevelopmentBank.
    9 Forexample,theUSDevelopmentCreditAgency,theAgence
    FranaisedeDveloppement,andtheGUARANTCOschemeof
    DFID,SIDAandothers.
    10 AformoflendingusedbytheEuropeanBankfor
    ReconstructionandDevelopmentinwhichloanstoa
    subsovereignbody,suchasalocalwaterutility,aremadeunder
    aformalunderstandingthattheresponsiblemunicipalitywill
    doeverythinginitspowertoenabletheutilitytocontinue
    servicingthedebt.

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    325 WWDR4 INVESTMENTANDFINANCINGINWATERFORAMORESUSTAINABLEFUTURE TRANSFORMINGWATERMANAGEMENTINSTITUTIONSTODEALWITHCHANGE
    CHAPTER 13
    Responses to risk and uncertainty
    from a water management
    perspective
    PhilippeBourseiller

    Authors ErumHassan,DanielP.LoucksandJoanaTalafr
    Contributor WilliamJ.Cosgrove

    Increasing uncertainty concerning the availability and quality of water resources and their use
    poses unique challenges for decision-makers (Shaw and Woodward, 2010). Rapid, sometimes
    unforeseeable changes in external pressures and drivers are the cause of these new and
    increased uncertainties and associated risks (see Chapters 8 and 9). Managing these risks
    and taking advantage of any opportunities that arise calls for new kinds of action involving all
    stakeholders, many of whom have not as yet considered how their decisions and actions afect
    water.
    Water managers employ difering approaches to address the risks and uncertainties
    surrounding water resources (Chapter 11), relying on the rules set in place by their local
    and national institutions (Chapters 5 and 11). They have tools and options at their disposal
    to facilitate the transformation of traditional static planning and management approaches
    into more adaptive and exible practices that can increase the resilience of water systems.
    These include informing the people who make decisions afecting water of the potential
    benets and costs of altering allocations to diferent uses, and the trade-ofs among various
    performance criteria that may need to be made. Although water managers play a signicant
    part in this process, expertise is also required from the social and economic sectors (and
    from the ultimate beneciaries).
    Water managers operate in difering contexts: some function and adapt to circumstances
    where governments anticipate water scarcity and variability and adopt precautionary
    policy instruments; others may have to operate in a context where governments prefer to
    maintain the status quo in policy development despite changes afecting water resources.
    Despite the difering contexts, water managers need to review their risk assessment and
    management practices. Moreover, they need to raise awareness among broader stakeholders
    of the benets of responding to uncertainty through risk management and of the dangers
    of failing to do so. A shared understanding of the concepts of uncertainty and risk in the
    context of water resources management, and the allocation and provision of water resources
    to meet the many uses they need to satisfy, can serve as a basis for further analysis.
    Collecting and sharing data are another essential element. With these complementary tools
    in hand, analysis of the impacts of external forces can be broadly inclusive, involving experts
    from multiple disciplines. Their experiences, both positive and negative, provide options to
    those who now need to decide how to act. What interventions are water managers willing
    to make without the assurance that risk and uncertainty will in fact be reduced? Most
    decision-makers base their choices on some variation of an ex-ante benet-cost analysis
    when it comes to water resources (Shaw and Woodward, 2008). However, it is the benets
    rather than the costs that are hard to estimate and which make policy-making regarding
    water so uncertain. As a result, decision-makers may be able to estimate the costs that their
    interventions will impose, but the advantages of such interventions may remain uncertain.
    This chapter illustrates some responses to dealing with uncertainties in the planning, design
    and operation of water supply and pollution control systems, when attempting to meet
    changing demands. These responses usually involve the use of various tools to identify and
    evaluate alternative water resources plans, policies, infrastructure designs and operating rules
    applicable to diferent regions of the developed and developing world. These responses and
    their outcomes illustrate both successes and difculties in meeting desired water planning
    and management goals, and demonstrate the relative efectiveness of associated data
    collection, generation and management schemes in supporting decisions. They also illustrate
    how technologies have been used to address issues related to adaption to change and
    dealing with risks and uncertainties.
    327 WWDR4 RESPONSESTORISKANDUNCERTAINTYFROMAWATERMANAGEMENTPERSPECTIVE

    This chapter also addresses the need to make decisions under increased uncertainty resulting
    from abrupt changes, discontinuity and unpredictability. While some of these may pose
    additional risks, others may provide opportunities. Decision-makers can draw on examples
    of how some uncertainties and risks are being managed successfully and unsuccessfully
    including through adaptation. Finally, this chapter examines the trade-ofs that governments
    are prepared to make in the face of risk and uncertainty. The following sections do not
    purport to provide an exhaustive inventory of all possible responses to risk and uncertainty
    implemented by water managers, but rather seek to provide illustrations of various ways in
    which risks and uncertainties related to water have been reduced or mitigated.
    insightsintohowtomanagewaterresourcesinthe
    faceofriskanduncertainty.Giventheinterconnected-
    nessofwaterwithothersectors,inclusionofdiferent
    kindsofexpertisecanhelpprovidesomedegreeof
    claritytouncertaintyandrisk.
    Itiscommonlyrecognizedthatsolvingwaterresourc-
    esproblemsrequirestheintegrationoftechnical,eco-
    nomic,environmental,social,andinstitutionalaspects
    intoacoherentanalyticalandmanagementframe-
    work.Sincethe1960s,computationalframeworksthat
    combineoptimizationandsimulationtoolshavebeen
    usedtodevelopandassesswaterresourcesdevelop-
    mentstrategiesfordecades.Whilethesepriorworks
    haveproducedsignicantadvancesinunderstanding
    interactionsbetweeneconomicobjectivesandphysical
    constraints,considerationofthecomplexityofthesys-
    temshasbeenrelativelynarrow(MayerandMuoz-
    Hernandez,2009,p.1177).Box13.1illustratestheuse
    ofalessnarrowmultidisciplinarytool,whichprovides
    manybenets,buthighlightsthechallengesthatun-
    certaintyandriskcanbring,despitecomprehensive
    analysesandmodelling.
    13.1.2Adaptiveplanninginanticipationofuctuating
    risksanduncertainties
    Adaptiveplanningandmanagementaresensibleand
    pragmaticapproachesthatwatermanagerscanuse
    underconditionsofchange,increasinguncertainty
    andrisk.Adaptivemanagementisoftenemployedto
    decreaseuncertaintyandoptimizedecision-making,
    whileensuringlearningfromtheprocess.Adaptive
    planningandmanagementintegratesprojectdesign,
    management,monitoringandevaluationforthepur-
    posesoftestingassumptions,andlearningfromthe
    outcomes.Essentially,adaptiveplanningisbasedona
    learningbydoingapproach(KatoandAhern,2008).
    13.1Reducinguncertainty
    Oneofthemostdirectwaysofreducinguncertainty
    istogeneratenewknowledgeorunderstandingof
    conditionsgoverningwateravailabilityandqualityin
    thepresentandinthefuture.Datacollection,analyti-
    calcapacityandpredictiveabilityareallrequiredto
    reduceuncertaintyandthereforetofacilitatedecision-
    makingaboutallocations,uses,mobilizationandtreat-
    ment.Whiletherisktowaterisnotreduced,itisbetter
    understood.
    Giventhemultiplicityoffactorsthatcouldpotentially
    afectwaterdirectlyandindirectly,thisexerciseisnot
    asstraightforwardasitmayseem;otherwisenocoun-
    tryoruserwouldeverhavebeensurprisedbyawa-
    tercrisis.Thefollowingsectionprovidesexamplesof
    meansbywhichthisuncertaintyhasbeenreduced,or
    therisksbetterunderstood.
    13.1.1Monitoring,modellingandforecastingtoreduce
    uncertaintyandunderstandrisk
    Astechnologyevolves,toolsforpredictingfuturewater
    availabilitybecomemorerened,allowingforthecon-
    siderationofmultiplevariablesanddrivers.Chapter6of
    thisreportelaboratesonvariousaspectsofdataand
    informationinwaterresources,includingthechalleng-
    esthatconfrontwaterresourcesmanagement.Regular
    monitoringandbasicdatacollectionserveasabasis
    forderivinglineartrendsaswellastodevelopmore
    complicatedmodels.
    Amulti-disciplinaryapproachcanbeusefultoachiev-
    ingrealisticprojections,sinceitintegratesthetools
    andparticipationofecologists,engineers,economists,
    hydrologists,politicalscientists,psychologists,and
    waterresourcesmanagers,amongothers.Involving
    partiesfromthesediferentsectorspermitsgreater
    328 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER13
    Source: Reproduced from Mayer and Muoz-Hernandez (2009, pp. 1176, 11878, 11912).
    BOX 13.1
    IntegratedWaterResourcesOptimizationModels(IWROMs)
    Integratedwaterresourcesoptimizationmodels(IWROM)aretoolsthathavebeendevelopedoverthelastdecadeforde-
    terminingoptimalwaterallocationsamongcompetingsectors.IWROMsuseoptimizationmethodologiestondthemost
    efcientwaterallocationstrategiesfromaneconomicviewpoint,usuallywhileconsideringtheenvironmentalimpactofthese
    strategies.Modelsofeconomicbenetsassociatedwiththeconsumptionofwaterinvarioususesectorsarederivedand
    assembledinanobjectivefunction,includingeconomicbenetsassociatedwiththeenvironment.Hydrologicalsimulation
    modelsprovidevaluesofstatevariables,whichareneededtoevaluatetheeconomicbenetmodels,constrainthephysical
    system,and,insomenewercases,providestatevariablesforevaluatingenvironmentalimpacts.Thesimultaneousevaluation
    andconsiderationofallocationsacrossvariouswatersectors,economicbenetmodels,modelsofthebiophysicalsystem,
    andeconomicandenvironmentalimpactsconstitutethebasisoftheintegratednatureofIWROMs.
    IWROMsseektondwater-allocationstrategiesthatoccurinanefcientway,bymaximizingtheeconomicbenetsorby
    minimizingthecostsornumberofpeopleafectedbysuchstrategies.Inaddition,IWROMsallowfortestingofdiferentfuture
    scenariosthatcouldbeexperiencedbyaparticularregion.Thesescenariosincludepotentialchangesinclimate,landcoverand
    landuse,improvementofinfrastructure,population,andconsumerpreferences.Bytestingthesescenarios,thestakeholderscan
    anticipatethepotentialenvironmentaloreconomicconsequencesrelatedtospecicdecisionstakeninthebasin.
    IWROMsareparticularlyusefulforregionswherecompetitionforwaterisintense,valuationofwaterforthevarioususesec-
    torscanbeestimated,economicandoperationalimpactsofproposedmanagementalternativesareofinterest,anddataare
    availabletocalibratesupportingmodels.IWROMsallowforthesimulationofandassessmentofwaterresourceseconomic
    policiesandinvestmentsinwaterinfrastructure.IWROMsseektodepictcoupledhumannaturerelationshipsandmimicthe
    impactofdrivingforcesandfeedbacksfromtheenvironmentsotheycanefectivelyanalysesustainability.IWROMssupport
    basin-widedecision-makingsinceappropriatebiophysicalmodelscanreectspatialheterogeneityin[hydroclimatic]condi-
    tionsandwaterusesamongdiferentsubregions.
    [IWROMapplicationsusehydrologicalsimulatorsand]mathematicalmethodstosolveoptimizationproblems.Itissuggested
    thatIWROMs(a)seektomodelcoupledhumannaturerelationshipsandmimictheimpactofwaterresourcesmanagement
    strategiesontheenvironmentatthebasinscale;(b)allowforthesimulationandassessmentofeconomicpoliciesandstrate-
    giesonwaterresourcesmanagement;(c)cansupportbasin-widedecision-making;and(d)areparticularlyusefulforwater-
    scarceregions.
    [However,asefcientasIWROMmaybe,uncertaintyposesseveralchallengestoitsapplication.Forinstance,]specifying
    sourcesoferrorandmakingaccurateestimatesofuncertaintyintheoutputsofIWROMscanbeverydifcult(Jakemanand
    Letcher,2003).Sourcesoferrorinindividualmodelsmaybedifculttoidentifyandquantify,asisthecaseinthehydrologi-
    calsimulatorsandeconomicmodelsusedinIWROMs,wherethelackofdataformodelcalibrationandvalidationiscommon-
    lyanissue.Becauseofthebreadthandcomplexityofissuesinvolvedinanintegratedmodel,thelevelofuncertaintygoes
    beyondunexplainedrandomnesstoasituationwheremanythingsarefundamentallyunknowableinatraditional,objective,
    scienticsense(RothmanandRobinson,1997,citedinJakemen,andLetcher,2003).Inaddition,itisoftenthatcasethatthe
    propagationoferrorsthroughtheIWROMispoorlyunderstood,duetothecomplexityoffeedbackswithintheintegrated
    system.AppropriateprocessesforvalidatingIWROMshaveyettobefullydeveloped;however,inafewcases,researchers
    haveatleastattemptedtocalibrateIWROMstohistoricalwaterdemands(CaiandWang,2006;Draperetal.,2003).
    AlloftheseissuesindicatethatapplicationsofIWROMsmustbesensitivetotheefectsofuncertaintyonthemodelresults
    andmoresophisticatedapproachesmaybeneededtoquantifyuncertainty.Furthermore,modelstendtobeusedtoinves-
    tigatescenariosthatcanbeverydiferentfromthesituationinwhichthemodelwascalibratedandtested.Thevalidityof
    theIWROMorcomponentmodelsoutsidethesecircumstancesmaybequestionableandthelevelofuncertaintyinpredic-
    tionsmaybedifculttoquantify.RationalproceduresforchoosingplanningperiodsinIWROMapplications,whichhave
    rangedfrom10to30years,havenotbeenestablished.Thevalueoflong-termapplicationsofIWROMsisquestionable,given
    theconsiderableuncertaintyinmanymodellingaspects,especiallythepricesandcostsincludeintheeconomicsmodels.
    Scenarioanalysis,[asreferredtoinChapter8,]maybeusedtoexploremodeluncertaintiesinthesecases.However,formu-
    latingrealisticscenariosmaybedifcult,consideringthattemporaltrendsinmanyofthephenomenaquantiedinthesesce-
    narios(suchasclimate,landuseandpopulationchange)maybenon-stationary.
    329
    AsKatoandAhern(2008)note,thekeyconceptsand
    principlesofadaptivemanagementintheliterature
    andapplicationrevieware:(1)conceivingmanage-
    mentactionsasexperiments;(2)conductingsev-
    eralplans/experimentsatonceforfastlearning;(3)
    monitoringbeingthekey;and(4)learningbydoing.
    Adaptivemanagementisthusasocialprocessaswell
    asascienticone,wherestakeholdersplayakeyrole
    ininformingthelearningprocess(Chapters5and11).
    Adaptivemanagementembedsuncertaintyasafun-
    damentalprincipleinthemanagementapproach.
    Adaptivemanagementstrategiesallowdecision-mak-
    erstoalterthedirectionofprojectsandprogrammes
    duetoemerginginformationgainedbythelearning-
    by-doingapproach.
    Therearesomechallengestousingadaptivemanage-
    ment.Theseincludeforgoingshort-termadvantages
    forlong-termobjectives,aswellasthedemandsthat
    areplacedonstakeholderparticipation.Stakeholders
    areexpectedtomaintaintheirlevelofengagementover
    thelong-term,whichmaynotbepossible(Lockwood
    etal.,2006).Therearecircumstancesunderwhich
    adaptivemanagementisseriouslycompromisedand
    doesnotwork,forexample,whenmonitoringisnot
    fullycompleted,whenmonitoringdataisnotanalysed
    oraccuratelyassessed,orwhentheresultsarein-
    conclusive(MooreandMcCarthy,2010).Moreover,if
    theprocessdoesnothaveparticipationofkeystake-
    holders,adaptivemanagementwillnotyieldoptimal
    results.
    Becausedecisionsmadeoutsidethewaterdomain
    alsoafecttheresourceanditsuse,manyperceive
    anintegratedadaptiveapproachasthemostappro-
    priatebasisformanagingwatersystemssustainably.
    Adaptivewatermanagementisanextensionofinte-
    gratedwatermanagementinthatitisdesignedtoad-
    dressfutureuncertaintiesinacomprehensivefashion.
    Theinclusionoffeedbackmechanismsinresponseto
    changingconditionsandincreasedknowledgeiscriti-
    calforrevisingandupdatingintegratedwaterman-
    agementeforts;adaptivemodellingconsidersboth
    humanandecosystemwaterneedsandtakesfeed-
    backmechanismsintoaccount.
    Forexample,studiescarriedoutintheNetherlands
    tosupportlong-termwatermanagementplanning,in
    thelightofuncertaintyregardingclimatechangeim-
    pacts,focusedonthreeaspectsofwatermanagement:
    ooddefence,drinkingwatersupplyandprotection
    ofRotterdamHarbour.Thekeypointofinterestwas
    whether,andforhowlong,currentwatermanage-
    mentstrategieswouldcontinuetobeefectiveunder
    diferentclimatechangescenarios.Tothisend,the
    studiesemployedtheconceptofadaptationtipping
    points(seeChapter8,Section8.1.5).Ifthemagni-
    tudeofchangewassuchthatacurrentmanagement
    strategycouldnolongermeetitsobjectives,thestudy
    assumedthatthetippingpointhadbeenreachedand
    thatanalternativeadaptivestrategywasneeded.
    Thereforethisapproachcombinedbothmodellingand
    forecastingelementswiththoseofadaptivemanage-
    ment,providinganiterativeprocesstoconsiderthe
    validityofmanagementapproaches.Triggers,ortip-
    pingpoints,areanefectivewayofevaluatingvari-
    ousmanagementmilestones,andifagreeduponand
    recognizedbystakeholdersoutsidetherealmofwater
    management,canprovideanefectiverallyingpoint
    formakingdecisionsaboutwater,whileincludingall
    users.
    Asimilarconcepthasbeenappliedinmanyinstanc-
    esunderthebroaderheadingofdisasterriskman-
    agement(DRM),whereemergencytriggerscanbe
    consideredastheequivalentofadaptationtipping
    points.Indeed,DRMprovidesaframeworkforrapid
    adaptivemanagementbasedonasetofagreed
    managementchangesthatoccurunderspecic
    WWDR4 RESPONSESTORISKANDUNCERTAINTYFROMAWATERMANAGEMENTPERSPECTIVE
    Adaptive planning
    and management
    integrates project
    design, management,
    monitoring and
    evaluation for the
    purposes of testing
    assumptions, and
    learning from the
    outcomes.
    330
    conditions.Thisisnotanewapproach,butonethat
    functionswithvaryingdegreesofefectivenessde-
    pendingonthecontext.Thesuccessfuloperationofa
    rapidandexibleDRMsystemrequiresanumberof
    basicfunctionssuchasavailabilityofdata,thetech-
    nicalmeansformonitoring,andrapidresponsesys-
    tems,whicharenotalwaysfunctionalinallcountries.
    Inthiscase,however,uncertaintyisnotreduced,but
    mitigatedbytheadoptionofpre-establishedman-
    agementresponsestriggeredbyspecicevents.As
    highlightedinthe2011GlobalAssessmentReport
    publishedbyUNISDR,however,DRMframeworkscan
    helptoaddressothernon-emergencyneedsaswell,
    suchasplanningforhydro-electricity,agricultureand
    otherwaterneeds.DRMneednotbeaparallelex-
    ercisetootherriskanduncertaintyreductioninitia-
    tivesinthewaterdomain.However,theexamples
    [Box13.3]indicatethatecosystem-baseddisaster
    riskmanagementisanincreasinglyattractiveoption
    foraddressingproblemsasvariedasriver-basinand
    urbanooding,droughtandwildres.(UNISDR,2011,
    p.127)
    Anothertoolusedindealingwithdisastersfroma
    planningandriskmanagementperspectiveiscatastro-
    phemodelling,asdescribedinBox13.4.
    13.1.3Proactivemanagement
    Anotherwayofdealingwithriskanduncertaintyin
    watermanagementistoanticipatethefuturecondi-
    tionsofanumberofkeydrivers,chiefamongthemde-
    mandforwater.Analysisofthedeterminantsofwater
    demandcanprovideusefulavenuesforreducingsome
    wateruncertainties,andmanycountrieshaveadopted
    demandmanagementasamechanismforwaterallo-
    cation,management,conservationandplanning.
    Waterdemandhasbeenontheriseforanumberof
    years,particularlyinurbanareas,andprojectionsshow
    continuinggrowthindemand(ButlerandMemon,
    2006).Thechiefinuencingfactorsarethedrivers
    referredtoinChapter2,includingpopulationgrowth,
    migration,lifestyleandeconomicchanges,demo-
    graphicshiftsandtheimpactsofclimatechange.Allof
    thesedriverscreateconditionsofuncertaintyandchal-
    lengestomeettheincreasingdemand.Demand-side
    management,ashighlightedinChapter5,addresses
    consumptivedemandsoastopostponeoravoidthe
    needtodevelopnewresources(ButlerandMenon,
    2006),therebylimitingtheuncertaintiesandrisks
    emergingfromunbridledwaterdemandandpotential
    shortagesinthefuture.
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER13
    Source: Kwadijk et al. (2010).
    BOX 13.2
    Adaptivemanagement:Adaptationtippingpoints
    incurrentDutchoodmanagement
    Toensuresafetyagainstooding,safetylevelsforall
    ooddefencesintheNetherlandsmustbeabletowith-
    standastormeventwithacertainfrequency,aswellas
    maintainthemorphologicalboundaryconditionsfordune
    growthalongthecoast.Optimizationofbothsandmining
    andnourishmentmustbeabletomeetecologicalrequire-
    ments.Thus,eveninthemostextremesealevel-rise-sce-
    nario,theexistingpolicyofprotectingthesandycoastis
    notlikelytoencounteranadaptationtippingpoint(ATP).
    PotentialATPsmightariseonthesocialandpoliticallevel,
    however.Forexample,thesocialacceptabilityofliving
    behindgiantdykesmightdecline,andincreasingspa-
    tialclaimsofever-largerdykesmightprovokechangesin
    governancearrangements.
    TheMaeslantBarrierisessentialtoprotectingRotterdam
    Harbouranditstidalriverareaagainstooding.Thedykes
    inthisregionaredesignedtowithstandwaterlevelsthat
    haveaprobabilityofoccurrencebetween1/10,000and
    1/4000annually.Tomeetthissafetylevel,thebarriercloses
    ifthewaterlevelattheoutletofthewaterwayexceeds3m
    orexceeds2.90mupstreamatDordrecht.Thereturnpe-
    riodofsuchaneventisapproximately10years.Risingsea
    levelimpliesthatthebarrierwillclosemoreoften.However,
    closingtheMaeslantBarrierhindersnavigationtoand
    fromRotterdamHarbour.AccordingtotheRotterdamPort
    Authorityamaximumclosingfrequencyofonceperyearis
    acceptable.ThisisconsideredanATP.Theclosingfrequen-
    cyoftheMaeslantBarrierdependsontheseawaterlevel,
    thedurationofstormevents,andthedischargeoftheriv-
    ers.AnotherATPisthemaximumsealevelrisethebarrier
    hasbeendesignedfor,whichis50cm.
    Thetidalriverareaiscrucialforfreshwaterprovision
    (drinkingwaterandagriculture)inthesouthwestofthe
    Netherlands.Risingsealevelandreducedriverdischarge
    duringdrysummersleadtoextrasalinizationofgroundwa-
    terandsurfacewater.AnATPforthissectorwouldoccurif
    sealevelriseincombinationwithlowerriverdrainagewere
    toresultinaninabilitytomaintainsaltconcentrationsata
    levellowenoughtomaintainkeyfunctions.Wateralloca-
    tionhasbeenestablishedinaseriesofwateragreements
    betweennationalandregionaladministrations.Tomeetthe
    requirements,themaximumallowablechlorideconcen-
    trationintheinlandwatersystemis250mgperL.Under
    currentconditions,thefreshwaterinletneedstobeclosed
    oncebetweeneveryveand10yearstoprotectagainst
    saltwaterintrusion.However,thefrequencyanddurationof
    necessaryclosureoffreshwaterinletsrapidlyincreaseswith
    risingsealevelsanddecreasingriverdischarges.
    331 WWDR4 RESPONSESTORISKANDUNCERTAINTYFROMAWATERMANAGEMENTPERSPECTIVE
    BOX 13.3
    Risk-addressedexamples
    Riverbasinooding
    InHubeiProvince,China,awetlandrestorationprogrammereconnectedlakestotheYangtzeRiverandrehabilitated448km
    2
    ofwetlandswithacapacitytostoreupto285millionm
    3
    ofoodwater.Thelocalgovernmentsubsequentlyreconnecteda
    furthereightlakescovering350km
    2
    .Sluicegatesatthelakeshavebeenre-openedseasonally,andillegalaquaculturefacili-
    tieshavebeenremovedormodied.Thelocaladministrationhasdesignatedlakeandmarshlandareasasnaturereserves.
    Inadditiontocontributingtooodprevention,restoredlakesandoodplainshaveenhancedbiodiversity,increasedincome
    fromsheriesby2030%andimprovedwaterqualitytopotablelevels(WWF,2008).
    In2005,theGovernmentoftheUnitedKingdomlaunchedtheprogrammeMakingSpaceforWater,aninnovativestrategy
    thatusesecosystemsinsteadofcostlyengineeredstructuresforoodandcoastalerosionriskmanagementalongriverbanks
    andcoastlines.Theprogramme,triggeredbysevereoodsin1998,2000and2005,consistsof25nationwidepilotprojects
    atthecatchmentandshorelinescales,andinvolvescollaborativepartnershipsbetweenlocalgovernmentsandcommuni-
    ties.SinceApril2003,theGovernmenthasinvestedbetweenUS$4.4andUS$7.2billionasofMarch2011.Onesuchproject
    coveredanareaofapproximately140km
    2
    oftheLaverandSkellRiverswestofRiponinNorthYorkshire.Activitiesincluded
    plantingtreesasshelterbelts,establishingvegetativebuferstripsalongriverbanks,thecreationofwoodland,fencingofex-
    istingwoodlandfromlivestock,hedgeplanting,andcreationofretentionpondsandwetlandsforincreasedoodstorageca-
    pacity.Theseactivitiesreducedsurfaceowduringoodsbytrapping,retainingorslowingdownoverlandowandprovided
    otherbenetssuchasprotectionofwildlifehabitatsandimprovedwaterquality(PEDRR,2010).
    Urbanooding
    Urbandevelopmentreplacesvegetatedgroundthatprovidesawiderangeofservices,includingrainwaterstorageandltra-
    tion,evaporativecoolingandshading,andgreenhousegasreduction,withasphaltandconcrete,whichdonot.Althoughthe
    functionsofgreenspacesinurbanareasareeasilyoverlooked,localgovernmentshavestartedreinstatinggreeninfrastructure
    (Gilletal.,2007)asaviablecomponentofurbanwatermanagementandasameansofcombatingurbanheat.InNewYork,
    forexample,untreatedstormwaterandsewageregularlyoodthestreetsbecausetheageingseweragesystemisnolonger
    adequate.Afterheavyrains,overowingwaterowsdirectlyintoriversandstreamsinsteadofreachingwatertreatmentplants.
    TheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyhasestimatedthataroundUS$300billionwouldneedtobeinvestedoverthenext
    20yearstoupgradesewerageinfrastructureacrossthecountry.InNewYorkCity,alone,itisestimatedthattraditionalpipeand
    tankimprovementswouldcostUS$6.8billion(NewYorkCity,2009).Instead,NewYorkCitywillinvestUS$5.3billioningreen
    infrastructureonroofs,streetsandsidewalks.Thispromisesmultiplebenets.Thenewgreenspaceswillabsorbmorerainwater
    andreducetheburdenonthecityssewagesystem,airqualityislikelytoimprove,andwaterandenergycostsmayfall.
    Drought
    Twodiferentbutalmostsimultaneousagro-ecologicalrestorationprocessesthatstarted30yearsagoinsouthernNigerandthe
    centralplateauofBurkinaFasohaveincreasedwateravailability,restoredsoilfertilityandimprovedagriculturalyieldsindegrad-
    eddrylands.Withverylittleexternalsupport,localfarmersexperimentedwithlow-costadaptationsoftraditionalagriculturaland
    agroforestrytechniquestosolvelocalproblems.Threedecadeslater,hundredsofthousandsoffarmershavereplicated,adapted
    andbenetedfromthesetechniques,transformingtheoncebarrenlandscape.InBurkinaFaso,morethan200,000haofdryland
    havebeenrehabilitated,producinganadditional80,000tonnesoffoodperyear.InNiger,morethan200millionon-farmtrees
    havebeenregenerated,providing500,000additionaltonnesoffoodperyear,aswellasmanyothergoodsandservices.Inaddi-
    tion,womenhaveparticularlybenetedfromimprovedsupplyofwater,woodfuelandothertreeproducts(Reijetal.,2010).
    AboriginalpeopleinnorthernAustraliahavealonghistoryofusingretomanagehabitatsandfoodresources.Duetochanges
    insettlementpatternsandmarginalization,traditionalremanagementwasfragmentedovervastareas,leadingtoanincrease
    indestructiveresinre-pronesavannahs.Traditionalremanagementpractices,suchasearlydry-seasonprescribedburning,
    havebeenrevivedandcombinedwithmodernknowledge,suchasusingsatellitetechnologytolocateres.
    Aboriginalrerangershaveconsiderablyreducedlarge-scaleresthroughremanagementacross28,000km
    2
    ofwesternArnhem
    Land,withsubsequentreductionsingreenhousegasemissionsofmorethan100,000tonnesofCO
    2
    -equivalentperyear.The
    DarwinLiqueedNaturalGasplantcompensatesaboriginalcommunitieswithapproximatelyAU$1million(US$1million)peryear
    forofsettingcarbon,generatingimportantincomeindisadvantagedcommunities.Additionalremanagementbenetsinclude
    protectionofbiodiversityandindigenousculture(PEDRR,2010).
    Source: Reproduced from UNISDR (2011, p. 129).
    332
    usingacomprehensivelong-termwaterconservation
    programme.Itwasbasedonaseriesofprinciplesin-
    cluding:water-lossmanagementtodealwithunac-
    countedforwatersuchasunmeteredandillegalcon-
    nectionsandleakage;retro-tprogrammestosupply
    existinghomesandbuildingswithwater-savingde-
    vices(ownerswerenedifdeviceswerenotinstalled
    afteracertainperiodoftime);schoolauditstond
    outwhatactivitiesconsumethemostwaterandwhy;
    assuranceofsupplywithaxedamountleviedevery
    month,formingthebasisoftheauthorityspledgeto
    providewatertoeveryhouseaslongasitisavailable;
    escalatingblock-ratetarifs;water-wisegardening
    methods;theuseofgreywaterforfoodproduction;
    andthecreationofwaterregulationsandbuildingby-
    laws(WMO,2001).
    Althoughmanagingwaterdemandisonewayoflimit-
    ingrisksassociatedwithincreasinglyuncertainlevels
    ofconsumptionandpotentialfutureshortages,italso
    posessomeunforeseenchallenges.Forexample,water
    demandmanagementcallsforagoodunderstand-
    ingofwhoismakingthedemandsonwaterandhow
    muchtheyaredemanding.Thisrequiresconsiderable
    knowledgeandinformation,withoutwhichpolicies
    maytargetsuboptimalsectorsorusers,therebyhav-
    inganegligibleimpactonfuturerisks.Improvements
    inresourcemonitoringanddatabasesofwateruse
    informationarethereforerequired.Inturn,thesevalu-
    ablenewresourcescanbeusedtoproduceimproved
    forecastsofwaterdemand,sothatplanningproce-
    duresareabletoguaranteewatersuppliestomore
    peopleespeciallythepoorestmembersofsociety
    whoaretraditionallyhardesthitbywatershortages
    (WMO,2001).
    Anotherchallengeisthataspoliciesaddresstheneed
    fordemandmanagement,newissuesariseregarding
    recognitionoftheenvironmentasauser.Traditionally,
    theenvironmenthasbeenneglected,butwiththe
    NationalWaterActinSouthAfrica,forexample,comes
    theconceptofanenvironmentalreserve,designed
    toprotecttheecosystemsthatunderpinwaterre-
    sources.TheActalsostatesthatitisthedutyofthe
    Governmenttoassesstheneedsoftheenvironmental
    reserveandtomakesurethatthisamountofwater,of
    anappropriatequality,issetaside(DWA,1997).This
    approachhasimmenseimpactsonwaterresources
    managementinSouthAfrica,butraisesthedifcult
    questionofhowmuchenvironmentalreserveariveror
    waterresourcerequires(WMO,2001).
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER13
    Source: The Review (2008).
    BOX 13.4
    Catastrophemodellingasatoolforunderstanding
    andcalculatingriskintheinsuranceindustry
    Catastrophemodellingisatooldevelopedbyprivate
    sectorcompanies,workingintheinsurancesector,asa
    mechanismtointegrateandsynthesizealltherelevant
    science,data,engineeringknowledgeandevenbehaviour
    ofclaimantsandinsurersintheaftermathofacatastro-
    phe(Shah,2008,p.5).Today,ithasevolvedintoarisk
    identicationandpreventiontool.Theapproach,which
    combinesmappingriskandmeasuringhazard,cameto-
    getherinadenitiveforminthelate1980s.
    While it is generally agreed that a probabilistic ap-
    proach is the most appropriate method to model the
    complexity inherent in catastrophes, probabilistic
    modelling itself is multifaceted. It requires simulating
    thousands of representative, or stochastic, catastroph-
    ic events in time and space; compiling detailed data-
    bases of building inventories; estimating physical dam-
    age to various types of structures and their contents;
    translating physical damage to monetary loss; and,
    nally, summing over entire portfolios of buildings.
    Catastrophe models require substantial amounts of
    data for model construction and validation. (Grossi and
    TeHennepe, 2008, p. 7)
    Originallyintendedastoolsreservedforthecalculation
    andprojectionsofnanciallosseswithintheinsurance
    industry,catastrophemodelsareincreasinglybeingused
    bygovernmentsandmunicipalitiesasariskmanagement
    andpreventiontool.Catastrophemodellingprovidesan
    integrativemodelwherebyeventuallossescanbequanti-
    edandtrade-ofsanalysedtowardstheintegrationof
    adaptivemeasuresinplanning.
    Forexample,demandmanagementisakeyelementin
    theUnitedKingdomgovernmentssustainabledevel-
    opmentpolicy.Thegovernmenthasimplementedthis
    policybyenactingtheGreenDeal.Thisencourages
    efcientuseofwaterinhomesandbusinessthrough
    deliveringjointenergyandwatersavings;promot-
    inginvestmentbywaterandseweragecompaniesof
    UK22billionby2015;anddevelopingnewassetsand
    innovativetechnologies(EA,2011).
    Awater-demandprogrammewasalsoimplementedin
    SouthAfrica.TheobjectiveoftheGreaterHermanus
    WaterConservationProgrammewastoconservethe
    naturalwaterresourceagainstincreaseddemand
    333
    Anadditionalchallengethatdemandmanagement
    raises,andwhichlimitsitsabilitytominimizeriskand
    uncertainty,isthenecessaryparticipationofvarious
    stakeholdersatdiferentlevels.Itrequirescommunity
    buy-in,commitment,monitoringandadherencetothe
    paradigmofdemandmanagement.Italsorequires
    transparentowsofinformation,forexample,toad-
    dressunknownusers,suchasillegalwaterconnections,
    leakagesandotherlosses,thatarenotattributable,
    butwhichbringanadditionallayerofuncertaintyand
    risktotheequation.
    However,integratingaparticipatorydimensiontode-
    mandmanagementcan`democratizetheprocessof
    determiningandprioritizingrisksanduncertainties
    (Baroangetal.,2010).Includingvariousstakehold-
    erscanalsobalancetheirmultipleneeds,andinform
    policyformulationsandmanagementresponsesthat
    respondtothem,asillustratedbytheexamplein
    Box13.5.
    WWDR4 RESPONSESTORISKANDUNCERTAINTYFROMAWATERMANAGEMENTPERSPECTIVE
    Source: APFAMGS (2008); World Bank (2010).
    BOX 13.5
    FarmermanagedgroundwatersystemsinAndhraPradesh,India
    TheAndhraPradeshFarmersGroundWaterManagementSystem(APFAMGS)isacommunity-basedprojectinvolvingover
    28,000menandwomenfarmersin638villagesacross7drought-pronedistricts.Theprojectfocusesondevelopingtheca-
    pacityofgroundwaterusersinmanagingtheirresourceinacommonlysustainableway.Theprojectadoptedademandside
    approachtogroundwatermanagement,whereinfarmersaremadetounderstandhowtheirgroundwatersystemfunctions
    sothattheycanmakeinformeddecisionsabouttheirwateruse.ThecoreconceptorbeliefofAPFAMGSisthatsustainable
    managementofgroundwaterisfeasibleonlyifusersunderstanditsoccurrence,cycleandlimitedavailability,andtheyaccept
    thatgroundwaterconservationthroughcollectivedecisionsisultimatelyasafeguardoftheirowninterest.Thus,theburden
    ofcontrolofextractionistransferredtoindividualsincommunitieswhoknowthewhyandhowandactbasedonsoundin-
    formation,ratherthanbeingenforcedbygovernmentimposedrulesandregulations.
    Theprojectemphasizessustainableuseofsharedwaterresources,whilepromotingcapacitydevelopmentofgroundwater
    users.Thedemand-sideapproachtotheprojectallowsfarmerstomanagetheirwaterresources,understandhowground-
    watersystemsoperate,andmakeinformedchoicesregardingtheirwateruse.TheunderlyingpremiseofAPFAMGSisthat
    sustainablemanagementofgroundwaterisfeasibleonlyifusersunderstanditsoccurrence,cycleandlimitedavailability,as
    wellcollectivedecision-making,whichwillgoverntheresource.Extractionisthuspracticedbyindividualsincommunities
    whoknowthewhyandhowoftheirpractices,andbasetheirdecisionsonsound,collectiveinformation,ratherthanbeing
    subjecttogovernmentlawsandregulations.
    Theprojectdoesnotoferanynancialincentivesorsubsidies.Rather,theassumptionoftheprojectisthataccesstoscien-
    ticdataandknowledgewillenablefarmerstomakeappropriatechoicesanddecisionsregardingtheuseofgroundwater
    resources.
    Theobjectiveistoequipfarmerswiththenecessaryknowledge,dataandskillstomanagethegroundwaterresourcesavail-
    abletotheminasustainablemanner,mainlythroughcontrollingdemand.Theprojectalsofacilitatesaccesstoinformation
    aboutirrigationwater-savingtechniques,improvedagriculturalpracticesandwaystoregulateon-farmdemandforwater.
    Unlikemostotherattemptsatcentrallybasedgroundwatermanagement,APFAMGSdoesnotseekanagreementfromcom-
    munitiestoreducetheirgroundwaterusefarmersarefreetomakecropplantingdecisionsandextractgroundwaterasthey
    desire,andthereisnocollectiveagreementbycommunitiesonself-regulationofgroundwateruse.Theprojectthereforere-
    liessolelyontheimpactofgroundwatereducationtoinuenceindividualdecisionsofthousandsoffarmersregardingcrop
    selectionandirrigatedareasinthepost-monsoonseason.
    Theprojecthasbeensuccessfulinthatthegroundwatersupplieshaveprovidedasustainablesourceofwaterforthefarm-
    ers.Eventhoughitispossible,nofarmerorgroupoffarmershasdepletedthegroundwatersupply.Anumberoffactorshave
    contributedtothesuccessofthisproject,twoofwhicharethetimelyavailabilityofcurrentdataonthestatusofgroundwa-
    teravailabilityandprojecteddemand,enablinginformedplantingdecisionsakeyinputtothefarmersriskmanagement
    paradigm,andreductionsingroundwateroverdraftresultingfrommultipleindividualrisk-managementdecisionsoffarmers.
    Asaresult,authoritativeleadershipisunnecessaryforenforcement(GWP,2008).
    334
    13.2Reducingexposuretothreatand
    minimizingrisks
    Iftheexamplesintheprecedingboxesillustratevari-
    ousapproachesusedinattemptingtoreduceuncer-
    tainty,othertoolsexistthatallowforthereduction
    ofrisks.Thekeyapproachistoanalysethevarious
    factorsofrisks,includingtheprobabilityofcertain
    eventsortriggers,andtoreduceoreliminateexposure
    tosuchrisksforwaterresourcesandforcommunities
    whodependonthem.
    13.2.1Investmentsininfrastructure
    New,updatedandexpandedwaterresourcesinfra-
    structurecanreducetherisksassociatedwithclimate
    change,hydrologicalvariabilityandtheirimpactson
    waterresourcesandsystems.Addingnewinfrastruc-
    turecanpotentiallytakeadvantageofnewtechnology.
    Forexample,whileinsomeregionsreservoirsarebe-
    ingremovedtoreducetheriskstoecosystems,includ-
    ingsh,thedevelopmentofincreasedwaterstorage
    capacity,particularlytoreducewaterscarcityrisksand
    manageoodsinotherregions,appearsinevitablein
    thelightofhighlylikelywatershortages.
    Therearevarioustypesofinfrastructurethatstatescan
    investintoaddressthechallengeofriskanduncer-
    tainty.Oneresponseoptionforreducingthevariability
    anduncertaintiesofnaturalstreamandriverowsisto
    constructreservoirsdesignedandoperatedtoredistrib-
    utewaterovertimeandspaceinwaysthatbettermeet
    humanandenvironmentalneedsincomparisontothe
    naturalowregime.Reservoirsarecontroversial.Many
    arebeingplannedandbuiltinwaterscarceorenergy
    decientareasoftheworld,whileinotherareastheyare
    beingremovedinaneforttorestoreecosystems.Dams
    andreservoirsareessentiallyrisk-avoidancetools,based
    onaknowledgeofcurrentconditionsandvariability.
    Forexample,theInternationalWaterManagement
    Institute(IWMI)predictsthatclimatechangewillhave
    direconsequencesforfeedinganever-expandingglobal
    population,especiallyinareasofAfricaandAsiawhere
    millionsoffarmersrelysolelyonrainwaterfortheir
    crops.InAsia,66%ofcroplandisrainfed,while94%
    offarmlandinsub-SaharanAfricareliesonrainalone,
    accordingtoIWMI.Thesearetheregionswherewa-
    terstorageinfrastructureisleastdevelopedandwhere
    nearly500millionpeopleareatriskoffoodshortages.
    IWMIsuggeststhatthesolutionistofundadiversity
    ofwaterstorageprojects,fromsmall-scalerainwater
    tanksandlarger-scaledamstosystemsthatarti-
    ciallyrechargegroundwateraquifers,toimprovethe
    soilsoitcanholdmorewater.Storedwaterintimesof
    droughtcanleadtoincreasedfoodsecurity.Justas
    modernconsumersdiversifytheirnancialholdings
    toreducerisk,smallholderfarmersneedawidearray
    ofwateraccountstoprovideabuferagainstclimate
    changeimpacts(McCartneyandSmakhtin,2010;quo-
    tationfromIWMI,2010,p.1).
    Small-scalestorageprojectshavedeliveredsomeposi-
    tiveresultswhenplannedwiththeparticipationofboth
    politiciansandfarmers.Forexample,smallcollection
    basinshaveboostedmaizeyieldsintimesofrainor
    droughtinZimbabwe.InIndiasRajasthanState,
    10,000waterharvestingstructuresthathelptorecharge
    groundwaternowirrigate34,600acres(14,000ha)and
    feed70,000people(Eichenseher,2010).InIndia,where
    thereisexpectedtobea50%gapbetweenwaterde-
    mandandsupplyby2030,decision-makersarestarting
    tofundstorageprojectsbecausetheyrecognize
    thelong-termeconomicbenetsofasecuresupply
    (IWMI,2009).
    Investingininfrastructureforfutureriskreductioncan
    alsohaveitstrade-ofsandunforeseenconsequences.
    Forinstance,inthecaseoftheSavannahRiverinthe
    UnitedStatesofAmerica,theconstructionofthree
    damsandreservoirsystemsjust50yearsagohasneg-
    ativelyalteredthenaturalowpatternsthatsupport
    thewildlife,naturalcommunitiesoftheriver,itsestu-
    aryandoodpath.Thisisofparticularconcerngiven
    thatthelowerSavannahRiverwatershedsupports
    extremelyhighspeciesdiversity,includingthegreatest
    numberofnativeshspecies(108)ofanyriverdrain-
    ingintotheAtlantic(HickeyandWarner,2005).
    Aninfrastructureapproachthushastoexamineallas-
    pectsofriskandfunctionsofwater.Onlyatthatpoint
    canwatermanagersmakedecisionswiththemostad-
    vantageoustrade-ofwiththebestpossiblepicture
    ofuncertaintyandrisk.
    TheexampleoftheSavannahRiverrevealsthatposi-
    tiveoutcomesensuewhentheiterative,consulta-
    tiveapproachisused.In2002,theUSArmyCorps
    ofEngineers(USACE)andTheNatureConservancy
    (TNC)launchedtheSustainableRiversProjecttore-
    storetheriver(HickeyandWarner,2005).Themain
    strategywastodeneowregimesthatrestored
    downstreamecosystemsprocessesandservices,while
    continuingtomeetotherhumanusesofwatersuch
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER13
    335
    aspowergeneration(provisioningservice),recreation
    (cultural)andoodcontrol(regulatory).Theproject
    beganinApril2003withanorientationmeetingwith
    morethan50leadingscientistsfromtheGeorgiaand
    SouthCarolinastategovernments,federalagencies,
    academicinstitutionsandothernon-governmental
    organizationstodenetheprocess.Historicaldata
    wasusedtodenetheseasonalwaterowsneededto
    supportthefreshwater,oodplainandestuary.Itwas
    difculttogettheparticipantsintheowrecommen-
    dationsworkshopstosuggestanyquantitativeow
    targets.However,onceremindedthemthattheirrec-
    ommendationswerearstapproximationthatwould
    berenedovertimethroughanadaptivemanage-
    mentprocess,thetargetswereestablished.Working
    withmanyscientistsandagenciescanbeonerousand
    time-consuming,butmostoftheseconstraintswere
    avoidedbygivingthemosttime-consumingactivities
    tooneresearchteam.Thisreportbecametheaccept-
    edbasicknowledgeforotherscientistsintheproject,
    makingiteasiertoreachconsensusduringtheow
    recommendationsworkshop.
    Eventuallyaowprescriptionplanforexecutinga
    seriesofseasonalcontrolledreleaseswasdesigned
    andtested.Forvedays,USACEreleasedtherst
    WWDR4 RESPONSESTORISKANDUNCERTAINTYFROMAWATERMANAGEMENTPERSPECTIVE
    Source: APFAMGS (2008); World Bank (2010).
    BOX 13.6
    MangroverestorationinVietNam
    VietNamhaslostover80%ofitsmangrovessincethe1950s.Thetwomajorcausesaretheuseofdefoliatingagentsduring
    theVietnamWarandtherapidexpansionoftheaquacultureindustryduringtheearly1980s.Mangroverestorationandreha-
    bilitationhasbeenongoingsince1991asapolicyresponsetothisloss.Theunderlyinggoalofrestorationandrehabilitationis
    tomitigatetheimpactofsealevelriseandcoastalstorms.Yetwithrespecttotherestorationofmangroveforests,stakehold-
    ershaveadiversesetofinterestsanddivergingprioritiesandpreferences.
    VietNamisextremelyvulnerabletoclimatechange.Climatechangescenariosfromdiferentinstitutionsindicatevastlydif-
    ferenttrendsforprecipitation,withsomeprojectingdecreasesandsomeprojectingincreases,thuscreatingclimaticuncer-
    tainties.Projectionsalsosuggestthattherewillbeanincreaseinfrequencyandintensityoftropicalstorms,andthatsealevel
    willrise.
    Clearlythereisahighdegreeofuncertaintyintheseclimatechangeprojections.However,evenintheabsenceofthechang-
    essuggestedbytheseprojections,thecountrysagricultureandwaterresourcesareincreasinglyvulnerabletoimpactsfrom
    salineintrusionandoodinundation.Climatechangecouldresultinseawaterintrusionintogroundwater,whichprovides
    valuablefreshwatersuppliesformanycoastalareas.Rapidconversionanddrainageofwetlands,combinedwithchangesin
    waterowsconnectedtoupstreaminfrastructuredevelopments,mayincreasetheincidenceofoodsanddroughts.Storm
    surgescanalsoseverelydamagecoastalinfrastructureandthedykesandstructuresthatsupporttherapidlydeveloping
    aquacultureindustry.Tidalmixingassociatedwithoodsandstormsurgesleadstosalineconcentrationsthathaveawide-
    spreadimpactonterrestrialandaquaticecosystemgoodsandservices,inparticularnativespeciesandspecieswithhigh
    economicvalue.
    Incontrasttostand-alonemeasuressuchasdykes,mangroverestorationandrehabilitationhasbeenpromotedasalow/no
    regretmeasure.Itcanbeappliedasaprecautionaryapproachtoclimatechangeadaptationandfosterwinwinsituations
    byaddressingpresentmulti-sectoralvulnerabilitiesandfuturerisks.InnorthernVietNamthefocusofmangroverestoration
    andrehabilitationisdisasterriskmitigation,andthusitsprotectivefunctionisprioritized.Mostoftheforestsinthisregionare
    classiedasprotectionforests,ownedandmanagedbythegovernment.IntheSouth,mangroverestorationandrehabili-
    tationhasinmanycasesbeenpromotedasadevelopmentactiontomeetmultipleobjectives.Plantedproductionforests
    canbeprivatelyowned,withtheownerhavingallrighttouseofforestlandincludingdevelopmentofcombinedagriculture-
    shery-forestrymodel.ThisregionaldiferentiationinfunctionorpurposeisperhapsnotsurprisinggiventhatnorthernViet
    Namliesinthetyphoonbeltandisthusmostexposedtostructuraldamagefromstormsurges.
    Theimplementationofmangroverestorationandrehabilitation,nestedwithinano/low-regretactionplanningprocess,is
    morelikelythananysingleobjectiveapproachandstand-alonemeasurestosecureagreatersetofbenetsacrossstake-
    holdergroups,eveninafuturecharacterizedbyuncertainty(MangroveActionProject,2008).
    336
    controlledoodof450m
    3
    persecond(cms)ofwa-
    terfromtheThurmondDam,asizableincreasefrom
    theexistingdailyreleaseof130cm.Severalcon-
    trolledoodshavebeenconductedfromMarch2004
    tothepresenttime.Thesecontrolledreleasesmimic
    pre-existingowconditionsbeforethedamswere
    built.Therehavebeennumerousecologicalimpacts
    thathavebeenevaluatedbyvariousprojectsmost
    notablytheabilitytomonitorchanges.Theseinclude:
    assessingimpactsofcontrolledoodsonthesalinity
    oftheestuary,examiningthepossibilityofregenera-
    tivebenetstooodplainforest,followingthemove-
    mentoftheshortnosesturgeon,andtrackingood-
    plaininvertebratesandsh.Suchmonitoringprovides
    greatinsightstostakeholdersandyieldsgreaterinfor-
    mationonpossibilitiesofwildlifepreservation.
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER13
    Source: APFAMGS (2008); World Bank (2010).
    BOX 13.7
    ConstructedwetlandsforwastewatertreatmentinBayawanCity,Philippines
    Theabilityofwetlandstolterandtransformnutrientsandotherconstituentshasresultedintheconstructionanduseof
    articialwetlandstotreatwastewaterandacidminedrainage(Hammer,1989,1992;Wieder,1989).Suchawetlandwascon-
    structedinBayawanCitytherstofitskindinthePhilippines.Itwasdesignedtoprotectcoastalwatersfrompollutionfrom
    domesticwastewater,protectthehealthoflocalresidentsthroughimprovedhousingwithsafesanitationandwastewater
    treatmentfacilities,andtodemonstratetheuseofconstructedwetlandtechnologyasapilotforothercommunitiesinthe
    Philippines.
    Theprojecttookplaceinthesouth-westofNegrosIsland,coveringatotallandof70,000hawithapopulationofabout
    113,000.Theprojectwaslocatedinaperi-urbanareaofBayawan,whichhasbeenusedtoresettlefamiliesthatlivedalong
    thecoastininformalsettlements,andhadnoaccesstosafewatersupplyandsanitationfacilities.RecordsfromtheCity
    HealthOfceshowedahighincidenceofmorbidityandmortalityarisingfromwater-bornediseasesintheseinformal
    settlements.
    Boththevillageandtheconstructedwetlandareclosetotheseashoreandduringtherainyseasongroundwaterrisesto
    groundlevel.Theprojectinvolvedcreatingcellsbuiltofconcreteandconcreteblockswithadrainagesystempositionedat
    thebottomofeachcell.Thesecellswerecoveredbyaseparationlayerandthenalterlayer.Theplantsusedinthelterare
    aspeciesoflocallyavailablereedcalledtambok(Phragmites karka).Thereedsalsoactasanodourbarrierduringthelling
    process.
    Thewastewaterdistributionsystemiscomposedoffourconcreteheadertanksandasystemofperforatedhigh-densitypoly-
    thene(HDPE)pipes.Thesystemismanuallyoperatedcomprisingtheswitchingonandofofthepumpandtheemptyingof
    theheadertanksintothedistributionsystem.Theheadertanksarelledtwotothreetimesaday.Sincecomingintoopera-
    tion,thesystemhasbeencontinuouslyimproved.Theheadertankswerecoveredtominimizeodourduringthellingpro-
    cess,andthecollectionsumpsbetweenthetwowetlandcellsandafterthesecondcellwerecoveredtoreducealgaegrowth.
    Inaddition,alargestoragetankwasbuiltforthetreatedwastewater.
    Thelocalwaterserviceproviderregularlyanalysestheinuentandefuentoftheconstructedwetland.Thisanalysisincludes
    TDS,pH,BOD,ammonia,nitrateandphosphate,aswellasthemicrobiologicalparametersE. coli).Theanalysisofthetreated
    wastewatershowedverygoodpollutantremovalefciency(97%removalofBOD).
    Thetreatedwastewaterwasinitiallyusedinconstruction,forconcreteproduction,whichreducedconstructioncosts.Itis
    nowalsousedforanorganiccutowerandvegetablefarmingprojectintroducedintheregion.Onlyabasicmicrobiologi-
    calanalysisontheefuentfromtheconstructedwetlandswasconducted.However,sinceNovember2008,morefrequent
    andaccuratemonitoringhasbeenconductedtoanalyseforfaecalcoliforms.Theefuenthasalmostidealconcentrationsof
    nitrateandphosphatetobeusedforfertigation(fertilizerplusirrigation)forthevegetableandcutowerproject.Themore
    advancedanalysisoftotalcoliform,however,showedthatthepathogenconcentrationsremaintoohighforunrestrictedir-
    rigation,butdemonstratedthatthetotalcoliformsconcentrationinthetreatedefuentisstilllowerthaninvirtuallyallthe
    riversofNegrosOriental(approximately10,000<100,000CFUper100mLinrivers).Theinvestmentinthisconstructed
    wetlandinfrastructureconsequentlyprovideswaterresourcesforvariouseconomicactivities,whichwouldotherwisebe
    compromised,therebyreducinguncertainty(LipkowandvonMnch,2009).
    337
    13.2.2Environmentalengineering
    Thenaturalenvironmentcanalsobeconsideredas
    infrastructure,asitsuppliesmanyofthesameser-
    vicesasman-madeinfrastructure(seeSection8.3).
    Wetlands,forexample,canreducepeakoodows
    andassimilatemanyorganicwastesinthesameman-
    neraswastewatertreatmentplants.Humansoften
    ignoreecosystemwaterneedsinallocatingwaterre-
    sources,therebyriskingthesustainabilityoflife-sup-
    portingecosystemservices.Increasedresearchand
    monitoringregardingecosystemwaterrequirements
    willhelpplannersandmanagersusethenaturalen-
    vironmentasacomponentofwaterresourcesinfra-
    structure.Infrastructureplanning,particularlyinvest-
    inginecosystems,canalsotakeano-regretsapproach
    byanticipatinggreatervariability,andplanningfor
    sustainability.
    Althoughtheuncertaintiesaroundnaturaldisasters
    maybeaddressedbyinvestinginphysicalinfrastruc-
    tures,examplesexistwherestrengtheningnaturaleco-
    systemscanmitigatesomeofthechallengesposed
    bynaturalvariability.Thefollowingresponsestoood
    damagereductionillustratethisanddemonstratethat
    strengthenedecosystemscancreategreatersupport
    mechanismsinthefaceofweather-induceduncertain-
    tiesandrisk.Naturalecosystemsarealsooptionsfor
    ooddamagereduction,asdiscussedinSection8.3.
    Stakeholdersotherthanthestatescancarryoutin-
    vestmentsintheenvironment.Asthefollowingex-
    ampleofIndiaandBrazildemonstrates,community-
    basedmanagementcanleadtosuccessfulinvestment
    inandmanagementofenvironmentresources:
    13.2.3MondiWetlandsProgramme,SouthAfrica
    WaterisSouthAfricasscarcestnaturalresource,and
    55%ofSouthAfricaswetlandstodatehavebeenlost
    duetoirresponsibleagricultureandforestry,urban
    development,pollution,dam-building,erosionandre.
    Moreover,themajorityofSouthAfricansdonothave
    accesstodrinkingwaterandthereforerelyonstreams,
    rivers,marshesandothertypesofwetlandstosup-
    plythemwithenoughwatertosatisfytheirneeds.If
    thecurrentsupplyanddemandratescontinue,South
    Africaswaterresourceswillbefullyutilisedby2025
    (MWP,n.d.).
    BasedinCenturion(Gauteng)andHowick(KwaZulu-
    Natal)inSouthAfrica,theMondiWetlandsProgramme
    (MWP)isajointprogrammeofSouthAfricastwo
    largestNGOconservationorganizations,WWF-South
    AfricaandtheWildlifeandEnvironmentSocietyof
    SouthAfrica(WESSA),togetherwithtwocorporate
    sponsors,theMazdaWildlifeFundandMondiLtd.
    Establishedin1991,theMWPisthemostsuccessful
    non-governmentalwetlandconservationprogramme
    inSouthAfrica,andisrecognizedbyitspartnerorgan-
    izationsaspioneeringwetlandconservationoutside
    reservesinSouthAfrica.
    WWDR4 RESPONSESTORISKANDUNCERTAINTYFROMAWATERMANAGEMENTPERSPECTIVE
    BOX 13.8
    Community-basedwatershedmanagementinIndia
    andBrazil
    Examplesofcommunity-basedwatershedmanagement
    systemsincountriessuchasIndiaandBrazilprovide
    evidenceforthevalueofinvolvingwomensgroupsin
    maintainingandprotectingtheirwatersources.Insemi-
    aridareasofGujarat,India,theSelfEmployedWomens
    Association(SEWA)createditsWomen,WaterandWork
    campaignin1995tosustainandprotecttraditionalwater
    sourcesthroughwaterharvesting,watershedmanage-
    ment,andrepairandmaintenanceofpipelinesandequip-
    ment.SEWAscollectiveactionapproachforwomencom-
    binesthepresenceofastronggrassrootsinstitutionand
    theestablishmentofatechnicalcadreofwomen.SEWAs
    membershiphasincreasedgreatlyduetothesuccessof
    thewatercampaign.Womenhavebenetedintermsof
    increasedincome,reduceddrudgery,improvementsin
    thelivelihoodsoftheirfamilies,reducedmigrationofboth
    womenandmen,andincreasedparticipationinSEWAs
    otherprogrammes.SEWAisapowerfulnon-governmen-
    talorganization(NGO)withthecapacitytonegotiatein
    thewatermanagementarea,previouslyoccupiedbymen
    only(Panda,2007).
    InthecommunityofSoJooDAlianaincentralBrazil,
    thelocalUnionofRuralWorkersincollaborationwith
    UniversityofBraslia(UnB)designedacommunitywater
    projecttostoppollutionofthedasBrancasRiverand
    torehabilitateoriginalvegetationalongtheriverbanks.
    Inthewomen-ledinitiative,calledtheWaterWomen
    project,eachgroupofwomenadaptedenvironmentally
    friendlypracticestotheirdailyactivities.Communityedu-
    cationtaughtlocalpeoplenottodumptheirsewageinto
    theriver,andhowtoplantnativespeciesoftreesalong
    theriverbanks.Asaresult,thereisavisibleabsenceof
    wasteintheriver,aconsiderablegrowthofnewvegeta-
    tionofnativespeciesontheriverbanksanddecreased
    soilerosion.Womenspoliticalparticipationwasstrength-
    ened,andpublicperceptionsregardingtheirleadership
    capabilitieswerechanged(Souza,2006).
    338
    InJanuary2001,theMondiWetlandsProjectlaunched
    acommunalwetlandsprogrammetohelpmanage
    andrehabilitatecommunallyusedwetlands.Themain
    objectiveoftheprogrammehasbeentopromoteand
    facilitatetheefectiveparticipatorymanagementand
    sustainableuseofwetlandsincommunalareas.The
    objectivewassupportedbythefollowingworkingac-
    tivities:developpartnershipswithgovernmentexten-
    sionservicesandserviceproviders,andbuildtheir
    capacityinwetlandmanagement;identifycommuni-
    ty-basedwetlandmanagementproblemsandissues;
    developanunderstandingofcommunitydynamics
    andperceptionsofwetlands;catalyse,buildandsup-
    portinstitutionsthatcanhelpdevelopthecapacityof
    communitiestousetheirwetlandssustainably;and
    facilitaterehabilitationofdegradedwetlandswhere
    feasible.
    Byincludingtheparticipationofvariousstakeholders,
    includinggovernmentdepartments,tribalauthori-
    tiesandNGOs,theprogrammehashadmanytan-
    giblesuccesses.Forexample,theMondiWetlands
    Programmehasinitiatedtherehabilitationofdegrad-
    edwetlandsinSouthAfrica,onamulti-millionRand
    scale;assessedtheconditionofover30,300haof
    wetlandsandinitiatedrehabilitationinmanyofthese;
    startedwetlandconservationactivitiesin21corear-
    easaroundSouthAfricanoutsidedeclaredreserves;
    trainedmorethan1,050peoplefrom60organiza-
    tionsinwetlandassessmentandfunctioning;and
    promotededucationregardingwetlands.Community
    buy-inandstakeholderparticipationisensuredby
    lengthyprocesses:themanagerofthecommunal
    wetlandprogrammeistaskedwithcreatingwet-
    landawarenessofwetlandissuesinruraltribalareas,
    buildingcapacityandcompetenceofgovernment
    extensionofcers,lobbyingdecision-makersofvari-
    ousinstitutionstoaddresswetlandsconservation,
    facilitatingtheestablishmentofwetlandgovernance
    structures,andpromotingtheimplementationofbet-
    terwetlandmanagementpractices(Rosenbergand
    Taylor,2005).
    Wetlandsplayacrucialroleinmanagingwater.They
    performwaterpurication,storage,rechargingofun-
    dergroundaquifersandstreamowregulation.They
    areoffurthernationalimportancefortheircontrol
    oferosion,oodattenuationandbiodiversityvalue.
    Presently,wetlandsareoneofthemostthreatened
    andunder-managedhabitattypesinSouthAfricaand
    theworldtoday(WWFSouthAfrica,n.d.).However,it
    canbedifculttoinvestinwetlandprotection,particu-
    larlyfornon-stateactors.Wetlandsareoftenperceived
    ashavinglittleornovaluecomparedtotheotheruses
    oflandandwaters(Schuijt,2002).Partofthedilem-
    maisthatwetlandsdonotprovideimmediateandvis-
    iblebenetstoriskreduction.However,investments
    inwetlandsprovidesafeguardsagainstfutureriskand
    uncertainty.Africa,oneofthetworegionsfacingseri-
    ouswatershortages(UNEP,2002),needswetlandsfor
    thelong-termhealth,safetyandwelfareofitsmany
    communities(Schuijt,2002).
    However,mostAfricanwetlandsareunderthreat.
    Stakeholderscanbeasignicantpartoftheproblem.
    Thefactisthatmanystakeholdersofwetlandshold
    divergentinterests.Asaresult,claimsarelaidagainst
    wetlandsthatdonotcoincide,andwetlandresources
    areoftenturnedoverforexploitation(Schuijt,2002).
    ThisiswhytheMondiWetlandsProgrammeissucha
    notablesuccess:ithasmanagedtosolicitstakehold-
    ersupportacrossvarioussociallevels.Inthefaceof
    futureriskanduncertainty,thisinvestmentinwet-
    landssupportsthelifecyclesofwildlifethatdepend
    onit,providesnaturalltrationofwater,secureswater
    sourcesandmoderatestheefectsoffuturedroughts,
    oods,climatechangeanderosion.
    Stakeholderparticipation,althoughausefulapproach
    tomanageriskanduncertainty,canalsoposesome
    challenges.Thereisalwaysariskthatstakeholders
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER13
    In an environment of
    uncertainty and risk,
    policy-makers may
    be inclined to make
    decisions that ofer
    the highest utility,
    which in uncertain
    circumstances, may be
    the status quo.
    339
    willbeunwillingorunabletoparticipateinwater
    managementprocesses.Althoughthelatterproblem
    canberesolvedthroughefectivecapacity-building,
    thisrequiresadditionalresources.Thewillingnessof
    stakeholderparticipationismoredifculttoachieve,
    andcaninvolveslowerprocessesaimedatchanging
    attitudesandvalues,andpromotingeducation.
    13.3Livingwithrisksanduncertainties:
    Trade-ofsinwaterdecision-making
    Tomeethumanandenvironmentalneedsforwa-
    ter,watermanagershavealwaysdealtwiththerisks
    anduncertaintiesarisinginpartfromnaturalvari-
    ability.Butnewissueshaveemerged,particularly
    duetoclimateandlandusechangesandtheoften-
    conictingpressuresfromotherexternaldrivers.This
    introducesadditionaluncertaintiesandassociated
    risks,makingitdifculttoevaluatecostsandtheim-
    pactsthatpolicychangescanhave.Futureactions
    cannolongerbebasedexclusivelyonpastcondi-
    tions,particularlyconsideringemergingglobal-scale
    phenomenasuchasclimatechange,orrapidmigra-
    tionows.Theincreasingspeedwithwhichsomeof
    watersdriversarechangingsuchasconsumption,
    demographicsandtechnology,andpossibledisconti-
    nuitiesinsomeofthem,areexacerbatingunpredict-
    ability.Decision-makersmayaddresstheuncertain-
    tiesthatclimatechangeimposesinamyriadofways;
    oneofthesewaysistoconverttheuncertaintyintoa
    riskscenario,inotherwords,toassumethatriskex-
    istsandfactortheprobabilityintothemanagement
    orpolicyapproach.This,however,requiresanaccu-
    rateunderstandingofthetrade-ofsinvolvedineach
    policyoption.
    Australia,asshownbelow,hasemployedthepre-
    cautionaryapproachinthefaceofclimatechange.
    However,astheexampledisplays,governmentsmay
    optforprecautionarymeasurestoavoidfuturerisks,
    butpolicydecisionscanhaveunforeseenoutcomes,
    whichmayinfactcreatenewuncertainties.
    TheAustraliangovernmentdevelopedtheNational
    PlanforWaterSecuritytoaddresspublicconcerns
    overwaterresources,particularlyrelativetoincreas-
    ingdroughtsandfearsoverfutureshortages.The
    10-pointplanaimstospendUS$10billionoverten
    yearsonwaterresources.Inefortstoexercisepre-
    cautionarymeasures,thelargestportionoffunding,
    US$6billion,istobespentonengineeringsolutions
    toenhanceirrigatedagriculture,whichhasbeen
    identiedasanareawherewaterusagecanbeim-
    proved.Theaimbehindthisinterventionistocreate
    water-savings,whichcanthenunderpinenvironmen-
    talsustainability.ThePlanalsosetsupabuy-back
    processtoaddresstheissueofover-allocationofwa-
    ter,whichhasbeenidentiedasacauseforconcern
    andacontributingfactortofuturewatershortages.
    Thereare,however,someunforeseenconsequences
    tothisplan.Despiteinvestinginengineeredandtech-
    nologicalxes,involvingengineersatagreaterlevel
    inmanagingwaterresourcesthanfarmersmayhave
    otherimplications.Engineering-basedsolutionsmay
    interferewithfarmleveldecision-making,whichmay
    perhapsbelessefcientthaneducativepractices
    developedwithfarmersoverthelongrun.Moreover,
    despitetheafordabilityofthebuybacksystemas
    amechanismtoaddresswaterallocation,thewith-
    drawalofwaterfromsomeirrigationusesandthe
    exitofirrigatorswillleavethoseremaininginthein-
    dustrywithanunreasonablenancialburdendueto
    theless-intenseuseofirrigationinfrastructure(Crase,
    2008).
    Anotherunforeseenconsequenceisthatthefocuson
    irrigationwaterhasledtolapsesinthelegislationre-
    gardinggroundwater.Legislativepolicieshaverestrict-
    edaccesstosurfacewaterwiththeresultthatground-
    waterdemandisincreasing.Thisleavespolicy-makers
    playingcatchuptoreininexcessivesurfacelevel
    extraction,whilemonitoringandcontrollingground-
    wateruse(Crase,2008).Groundwaterusecouldthus
    increasethecreationofnewwateruncertaintiesand
    challenges.
    Thisexampleisanillustrationofawillinggovernment
    trade-oftoreducefuturewateruncertaintyandrisk.
    However,thereisnocertaintyofpolicyoutcome,as
    isdemonstratedbytheunforeseenconsequences
    highlightedabove.Inanenvironmentofuncertainty
    andrisk,policy-makersmaybeinclinedtomakede-
    cisionsthatoferthehighestutility,whichinuncer-
    taincircumstances,maybethestatusquo.Assome
    researchdemonstrates,decision-makersexhibita
    strongstatus-quobiasinthefaceofuncertaintya
    biasthatbecomesstrongerwhenfacedwithmore
    options(SamuelsonandZeckhauser,1988).Faced
    withtheincreasinguncertaintiesregardingwater,
    business-as-usualwatermanagementoftenindicates
    adefactotrade-ofbetweenthesatisfactionofim-
    mediateneedsandlonger-termsolutionsthatwould
    WWDR4 RESPONSESTORISKANDUNCERTAINTYFROMAWATERMANAGEMENTPERSPECTIVE
    340
    However,notalltrade-ofsneedbenegative.There
    areindeedexamplesofwinwinsituationswhereef-
    fortstoaddressrisksanduncertaintiesinandoutside
    thewaterrealmhaveledtomultiplemulti-sectoral
    benets,andtobenetsforwaterinthelong-term.
    Theexamplebelowillustrateshowaprivatesector
    rm,DowChemicals,facedwiththerisingcostsof
    waterasanindustrialinput,pollutioncontrolcosts
    andcorporatesocialresponsibilityissues,managedits
    ownrisksinamannerthatwasbenecialtoallwater
    users.
    Whilethischapterhasfocusedonthemanagementof
    risksanduncertaintiesfromwithinthewaterdomain,
    thefollowingchapterhighlightsexamplesofhowef-
    fortstomanageothergrowingrisksanduncertainties
    canalsoresultinpositiveornegativeimpactsonwa-
    ter.Asthewebofrisksanduncertaintiesgrowsmore
    complexandaschangesaccelerate,itwillbecomeim-
    portanttoderivemanagementapproachesthathelp
    delivermultiplebenets.
    involvethelossofnancialorpoliticalcapitalinthe
    shortterm.
    Limitedwateravailability,growingandevolvingde-
    mands,andcompetitionamongincreasinglyscarce
    nancialandphysicalresourcescreatedifculttrade-
    ofsfordecision-makers,whomustplanefectively
    underconsiderableriskanduncertainty.Countriescan
    takeprecautionaryorstatusquoapproachestowards
    addressingriskanduncertainty,andthesereectthe
    trade-ofstheyarewillingtomaketoaddressriskand
    uncertainty.Policychangesonlyoccurwhenthecosts
    ofmaintainingthestatusquoexceedthetransac-
    tioncostsofimplementingchange(SalethandDinar,
    2004).Inthisvein,countriescanviewtheirtransac-
    tioncostsindiferentways:somemayseethedeteri-
    orationofwaterandenvironmentalresourcesasneg-
    ativeexternalitiesnotcostlyenoughforcurrentpolicy
    change,whileothersmayviewfuturewaterchalleng-
    esasbearinghighercostswhichrequirecurrentpolicy
    changeforfuturebenet.
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER13
    Source: Reproduced from WBCSD (2010).
    BOX 13.9
    Ensuringreliableaccesstowaterforindustrialpurposeswhileprovidingakeypollutioncontrolservice
    Dowisacompanyspecializedininnovativechemical,plasticandagriculturalproductsandservices.ItsTerneuzenmanufac-
    turingfacilitiesintheNetherlandsrequireasignicantamountoffreshwater.However,thelocalwaterisbrackish,requiring
    freshwatertobetransportedadistanceof~100km.Becausethefreshwaterisutilizedbybothindustryandmunicipalities,
    Downeedstoreducepotentiallymajorbusinessrisksofincreasedscarcityandincreasedcostsoffreshwater.
    TheobjectiveoftheTerneuzeprojectistoprovidealong-term,cost-efective,reliablesupplyofwaterfortheindustrialsite.
    Developmentofthehouseholdwastewaterutilizationprojectbeganinearly2005withimplementationoccurringinearly
    2007.Togetherwithregionalpartners,theutilityproviderEvidesandtheregionalWaterBoard,arobustintegratedwater
    managementsystemwascreated.Thankstothisscheme,theTerneuzensiteisnowtakingthelocalcommunitystreated
    wastewater,whichwaspreviouslydischargeddirectlyintotheriver,andreusingittwicerstlyforsteamproductioninman-
    ufacturingplantsandthenagainincoolingtowersbeforereleasingitintotheatmosphereasvapour.
    Since2007,thesiteacceptsmorethan9.9millionlitresofmunicipalhouseholdwastewatereveryday.Dowhasbeenableto
    cutitsfreshwateruseinhalfbyusingthewastewaterfromthemunicipalityandalsothroughrecyclingeforts.Bymanaging
    waterinthismanner,Dowhasalsoreducedtheamountofbrackishwaterrequired.
    Alongwithsignicantreductionsintheamountoffreshwaterusedbythesite,anadditionalmajorenvironmentalbenetlies
    inthefactthatthehouseholdwastewatercanbepuriedunderlowerpressurethanthesaltwaterthatwasusedinthepast.
    Thistranslatesinto65%lessenergyand500tonsfewerchemicalstobeusedperyear,andconsequently5,000tonslessCO
    2
    isdischargedannually.Asanadditionaloutcome,everylitreofwaterisusedthreetimes,insteadofonce.
    Theresultisareliablelong-termwatersupplyforthesitewhichallowsthemanufacturingfacilitiestobecostefective.Akey
    aspectofthisprojectisthepartnershipbetweenDow,thewatercompanyEvidesandtheregionalWaterBoard.Thispartner-
    shipallowswatertobesuppliedforthesamepricesasDowhadpaidinthepast.
    341

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    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK CHAPTER13
    343 WWDR4 RESPONSESTORISKANDUNCERTAINTYFROMAWATERMANAGEMENTPERSPECTIVE WWDR4 INVESTMENTANDFINANCINGINWATERFORAMORESUSTAINABLEFUTURE TRANSFORMINGWATERMANAGEMENTINSTITUTIONSTODEALWITHCHANGE
    CHAPTER 14
    Responses to risks and uncertainties
    from out of the water box
    Shutterstock/Sihasakprachum

    Authors ErumHassanandJoanaTalafr
    Contributors DanielP.LoucksandWilliamJ.Cosgrove

    As seen in the previous chapter, water managers use a number of mechanisms to help reduce
    the risks and uncertainties they face. Water policy responses can take various forms, from
    risk avoidance to anticipatory adaptive management. However, in a world where risk and
    uncertainties prevail in every domain of human life, responses to water challenges must come
    primarily as part of attempts to address (or in some cases, failure to address) other sectoral
    risks and uncertainties.
    As noted in WWDR3, many of the problems faced within the water sector are caused by
    decisions made in other sectors, while many of the solutions to water problems can also be
    found within these sectors. Most decisions, within or outside the water world, involve some
    form of risk management. Anticipation of future benets or threats are an integral part of
    sectoral decisions and business decisions alike. These decisions do not always take water into
    consideration, but often have an impact on water and an impact on the types of decisions
    and reactions that water managers have to choose from.
    This chapter seeks to demonstrate how the management of risks and uncertainties outside of
    the water box can also have benets for water management.
    WWDR4 345 RESPONSESTORISKSANDUNCERTAINTIESFROMOUTOFTHEWATERBOX
    Beyondtheprovisionofwaterforbasichumanneeds,
    suchasfood,drinkingandhygiene,manydevelopment
    efortshaveanimpactonwaterrisksanduncertain-
    ties.Inmostcases,moredevelopmentmeansmore
    wateruse,andmorewaterpollutionarisesfromhigher
    levelsofeconomicgrowth.Forexample,intensication
    ofagriculturalproductioniscontinuouslyhighlightedas
    theprimaryengineforgrowthandpovertyreductionin
    developingandemergingcountriesalike.Whilethisis
    true,ithasanimpactontheavailabilityofwaterforoth-
    eruses.Choosingdiverseeconomicgrowthpathways
    couldthereforehelptoaddressrisksanduncertainties
    relatedtowateravailability;however,veryfewcountries
    havetheoptiontodosobecausethetrade-ofsandpo-
    liticalcostsaresohighandimmediatelyfelt.
    Box14.1illustrateshowonecountry,Cuba,haselected
    tomaintainagricultureasanengineofpovertyre-
    duction,buthasadoptedpoliciestopromoteorganic
    methodsandintensifycropproductionperhectare,
    thisreducingwaterpollutionandcreatingimproved
    wateruseefciency,withalesserimpactonscarce
    waterresources,therebyreducingrisksoffuturewater
    crisesandensuringasustainablebasisforeconomic
    development.
    Insomecases,greengrowthentailsturningadevelop-
    mentchallengeforexample,lackofaccesstochemi-
    calfertilizerintoasustainabledevelopmentopportu-
    nity.Followingthismodel,existingwaterscarcitycould
    provideabasisfortechnologicalinnovationtohelp
    countriesleapfrogtowardsgreenereconomies,while
    avoidingthecommonrisksfacedbyothercountries.
    Incountrieswhereexpensivewater-basedsanitation
    systemsareoutofreach,especiallyinruralareas,for
    example,thedisseminationofdrytoiletsorcompost-
    ingtoiletscanbeanefectivealternative,ensuringthe
    provisionofbasicsanitationserviceswithoutimpos-
    inganadditionaldemandorriskonwater.Countries
    equippedwithwaterefcientordrydevicesthereby
    avoidaseriesofrisksrelatedtowater,whetherdis-
    ease-related,scarcity-relatedornancialinnature.
    14.2Respondingtoclimatechange:
    Adaptationandmitigation
    Climatechangerepresentsoneofthegreatestuncer-
    taintiescurrentlyfacinghumansociety.Attheglob-
    allevel,theremaybeahighdegreeoflikelihoodfor
    certaintypesofimpactsuchastemperatureincreases
    andsealevelrise;however,impactsatthelocallevel
    arefarlesspredictable.
    14.1Reducingpovertyandgreeninggrowth
    andeconomies
    Waterissoclosetotheheartofsocialandeconomic
    developmentthatitisdifculttoaddressonewithout
    addressingtheother.Yetshort-termplansforpovertyre-
    ductionandeconomicdevelopmentareoftenundertak-
    enwithoutalong-termanalysisofpotentialwatertrade-
    ofs,creatingunsustainabledevelopmentpathways.
    Source: Reproduced from UNEP (2011); see also Alvarez et al.
    (2010).
    BOX 14.1
    Cubausesorganicagricultureforsustainablegrowth
    TheCubangovernmentrespondedtoafoodcrisisin
    September1993byeliminatingthemajorityofstatefarms
    andturningthemintobasicunitsofcooperativeproduc-
    tion.Muchofthe80%ofallfarmlandthatwasonceheld
    bythestatewasturnedovertotheworkersandre-estab-
    lishedasworker-ownedenterprises.Althoughpeasants
    didnotowntheland,theywereallowedtorenttheland
    indenitelyandfreeofchargeaslongastheycontinued
    tomeetproductionquotasfortheirkeycrops.
    Foodcropsproducedinexcessofthesequotascouldbe
    freelysoldatfarmersmarkets,therebyprovidingaprice
    incentiveforfarmerstoefectivelyuseneworganictech-
    nologiessuchasbiofertilizers,earthworms,compostand
    theintegrationofgrazinganimals.Farmersalsorevived
    traditionaltechniquessuchasintercroppingandmanuring
    inordertoincreaseproductionyields.
    Publicpoliciesalsosupportedurbanorganicagriculture
    throughtheProgramaNacionaldeAgriculturaUrbana
    (NationalProgrammeofUrbanAgriculture)in1994,which
    wasdesignedtoencourageurbanfarmerstoproduce
    diversied,healthyandfreshproducts.Havananstrans-
    formedtheirvacantlotsandbackyardsintosmallfarms
    andgrazingareasforanimals.Thisresultedin350,000
    newwell-payingjobs(outofatotalworkforceof5mil-
    lion),4milliontonnesoffruitsandvegetablesproduced
    annuallyinHavana(uptenfoldinadecade)andacityof
    2.2millionagriculturallyself-sufcientinhabitants.
    Whileensuringnationalfoodsecurityunderatradeem-
    bargo,Cubastransitiontoorganicagriculturehasalso
    hadapositiveimpactonpeopleslivelihoodsbyguaran-
    teeingasteadyincomeforasignicantproportionofthe
    population.Moreover,thelackofpesticidesforagricultur-
    alproductionislikelytohaveapositivelong-termimpact
    onCubanswell-beingsincesuchchemicalsareoftenas-
    sociatedwithvariousnegativehealthimplicationssuchas
    certainformsofcancer.
    346
    andwiththehelpofincreasinglyprecisemodelsand
    data,canhelptosomewhatreduceuncertainties.
    Certainefortstoplanforclimatechangealsopro-
    videsolutionstowaterrisksanduncertaintieswith-
    outspecicallyintendingtodoso.Inmanycountries
    alreadysuferingfromlowagriculturalyields,forex-
    ample,efortstopromoteno-regretsclimateadapta-
    tionincludemeasuresthatcombinediversicationout
    ofagriculture,sustainabletechnologiesforachieving
    higheryieldsperinputs,andtechnologytransferfor
    thepromotionofmoresustainableinputuse(suchas
    land,water,fertilizers,labour).Thiscanhavemultiple
    benecialimpactsonmitigatingwaterrisksanduncer-
    tainties,sinceitprovidesthemeansofproducingmore
    food,usingtheoreticallylesswater.Inacontextwhere
    waterislikelytobecomemorescarce,investmentin
    Efortsare,however,underwaytodevelopadaptation
    pathwaysreferredtoasno-regretsapproaches.This
    meansthattheywillprovidebenetsdevelopmen-
    talorenvironmentalregardlessoftherealizationof
    agivenclimatescenario.Intheabsenceofcertainty
    regardinglocalimpacts,itisimportanttoplandevel-
    opmentinawaythatallowsforaexibleresponseto
    variousclimatescenarios.
    Therearealsovariousefortsongoingthroughoutthe
    worldtoanticipateandrespondtotheimpactsofcli-
    matechangeonwater,particularlysinceclimateim-
    pactsarelikelytobefeltmostlybyincreasinguncer-
    taintiesregardingwateravailability:changesinrainfall
    patterns,droughtsandsoon.Asseenintheprevi-
    ouschapter,adaptivemanagementprovidesauseful
    frameworkthroughwhichtomakevariousdecisions,
    CHAPTER14 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    Source: World Bank (2011).
    BOX 14.2
    ReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradation(REDD)withwaterco-benets
    TheUN-REDDProgrammeistheUnitedNationsCollaborativeinitiativeonReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForest
    Degradation(REDD)indevelopingcountries.TheprogrammetakesasitsbasisthestatementoftheIntergovernmentalPanel
    onClimateChange(IPCC)thattheforestrysector,mainlythroughdeforestation,accountsforabout17%ofglobalgreen-
    houseemissions,makingitthesecond-largestsourceofemissionsaftertheenergysector.Thebasicassumptionisthat
    reduceddeforestationandforestdegradationcanplayasignicantroleinclimatechangemitigationandadaptation,yield
    signicantsustainabledevelopmentbenets,andmaygenerateanewnancingstreamforsustainableforestmanagementin
    developingcountries.Ifcost-efcientcarbonbenetscanbeachievedthroughREDD,increasesinatmosphericCO
    2
    concen-
    trationscouldbeslowed,efectivelybuyingmuchneededtimeforcountriestomovetoloweremissionstechnologies.(FAO/
    UNDP/UNEP,2008b,p.1)
    Itisrecognizedthatproperlymanagedforestsprovideanumberofnon-carbonservices.Theyconservebiodiversity,en-
    hancesoilandwaterconditions,helpensuresustainedsuppliesoftimberandnon-timberforestproductsandhelpsustain
    orimprovelivelihoodsandfoodsecurityforlocalcommunities(FAO/UNDP/UNEP,2008a).However,theremaybetrade-ofs
    betweenforestsandwater,sincesite-speciclanduseswillafectwaterservicesdiferently.Forexample,forestscansome-
    timesreduceannualwaterows,efectivelycreatinganewwaterrisk;however,theycanalsoplayaroleinreducingsedi-
    mentationinthiscasereducingriskstoahydropowerplantorcontrollingoodrisks.Carefulsite-specicidenticationof
    thewaterrisksandco-benetsexpectedfromaREDDinitiative,aswellasappropriaterankingofvariousco-benets,could
    proveusefultoolsindevisingappropriateREDDprogrammestohelpmitigateclimatechangeaswellaswaterrisks
    anduncertainties.
    Ecuadorprovidesanexampleofsuchenvironmentalco-benetsthroughimplementationofitsREDDstrategy,viatheSocio
    BosqueProgramme(anincentive-basedpolicytotackledeforestation).ThroughouttheProgramme,forestlandownersand
    indigenouscommunitiesvoluntarilycommittoconservingtheirnativeforestsforaperiodof20years.Inexchange,they
    receiveayearlyeconomicincentive.SinceSeptember2008,SocioBosquehassignedconservationagreementsthatcover
    morethan400,000ha,benetingmorethan40,000people.Thespecicidentication,rankingandmonitoringofco-ben-
    ets,bothsocialandenvironmental(includingexpectedwaterbenets),occursthroughtheestablishmentofasystemof
    safeguards,integratedwithinthemonitoringstructureoftheREDDprogramme.Thishelpstoensurethatfuturerisksposed
    byclimatechangetowaterprovision,quantityorquality,willbereduced,generatingadditionaladaptivebenetsfortar-
    getedcommunities.
    347
    future.Manydecisionsthatareuniquelymotivated
    bythenancialbottomlinecanalsoprovideefective
    meansofreducingrisksanduncertaintiesrelatedto
    water.
    Thesecanalsobeencouragedbygovernmentpolicies
    suchastaxationrates,orscalincentivesforattracting
    investmentandbusinessinagivenlocation,whilele-
    galframeworksalsogoalongwaytoreducinguncer-
    taintiesbyprovidingboundariesanddeningincen-
    tivesfortheinvestmentcontext.Itisnotraretoseetax
    benetsoferedtocompaniesinexchangeforthejob
    agriculturaldevelopmentforclimateadaptationcan
    alsoprovidearesponsetowateruncertainties.
    Anexampleofefortscreatingmutuallysupporting
    benetsistheinterfacebetweenforestmanagement
    andwaterresourcesmanagement(Box14.2).
    14.3Businessdecisionstoreduceriskand
    uncertainties
    Mostbusinessdecisionsarebasedonanapproachto
    risksanduncertainties.Decisionsoninvestmentsand
    modesofproductionmakepresumptionsaboutthe
    WWDR4 RESPONSESTORISKSANDUNCERTAINTIESFROMOUTOFTHEWATERBOX
    Source: WBCSD (n.d.).
    BOX 14.3
    Restoringwaterprovisioninadryarea:Italcementi
    TheSitapuramlimestonemineisacaptivemechanizedopen-castmineoperatedbyZuariCementLtd(partoftheItalian
    ItalcementiGroup).ItislocatedatDondapadu,inNalgondaDistrict,insouth-easternIndia.Theareasustainsagriculturewhile
    twoperennialstreamsowthroughtheexistingminingleaseareaandeventuallyintoDondapaduVillage.Theareahasatropi-
    calclimatewithanaveragerainfallof64cm,andamaximumhumidityof82%.Thetemperaturerangesfrom22to50C.
    Thecompanysobjectivewastoreachthebaserock(sandstone)afterremovinglimestone,andconverttheexcavatedarea
    intoalake(7580%oftheminingarea)usingageo-hydraulicmodelforthegroundwaterbalance,thendeveloparecreation
    sitearoundit.Thecompanyalsooptedtodevelopagreenbeltaroundthelaketomaintainthesoilandhelpprotecttheora
    andfauna.
    Theconversionoftheexcavatedareaintoalakeincludedthecreationofsmallpondsandlargerwaterbodies,inaddition
    toregularassessmentofwaterqualityandthewatertable.Catchmentdrainsorgarlanddrainswereconstructedandcon-
    nectedtopitstoarrestsiltandsedimentowingoutoftheminingarea.Thishelpedtoreduceuncertaintybycreatingwater
    reservesanddecreasedthepotentialpollutionfromtheminingactivities.
    Thequarryhasbeenoperationalsince1986,andanadjacentgreenbeltwasdevelopedin2000.Busheswereplantedonthe
    slopeofthepittoretainsoilandprotectthepitswallsfromcollapsing.Thedevelopedgreenbeltalongtheboundaryofthe
    miningleaseareaactedasabarrier,protectingthesurroundingareafromthedustandnoisecreatedbyminingactivities.In
    2007,300Ganugaplantswereplantednearthefactorysresidentialcomplex.Thetopsoilremovedfromtherstbenchofthe
    mineswasusedtomakeabedabovetheexposedearthoftheland,beforeplantation.Jatrophaplants(forbio-diesel)are
    beinggrownon20acresinandaroundtheminingleaseareas.PVCpipelineswerelaidtoprovideapermanentwatersource
    tothetreesfromthequarrybench.
    Theresultshavebeenasfollows:
    1hecreationofalargebodyofwaterwhichhasattractedmanybirdsfromotherareasincludingduckscranesandhorn-
    bills,andsometimeskingshersifshhavespawnedinwaterreservoirs.Thisaddstothepreservationoftheecological
    environment.Thereservoiralsobenetsthelocalcommunitieswhooftenfacewaterscarcityandcanusethereservoirfor
    agriculturalirrigationandshcultivation.
    1herechargingoftheunderlyingaquiferwhichhasraisedthewatertableinthesurroundingareaandincreased
    vegetation.
    Honitoringandmanagementofsiltdepositionwhichpreventsoverfowofsedimentsfromthemineareaintothesur-
    roundingsandconsequentdisturbanceoflocaloraandfauna.Someoftheminedpitsmayllupoveralongerperiod
    oftime.
    1hecreationofgreeneryaroundminepremisesretentionofearthduetotheplantationoftreesandbushesandreduc-
    tionofCO
    2
    levelsintheatmosphere.
    348
    wastewaterdischarges,andtransferablewaterrights)
    canencouragethesesortsofdecisionsbybusinesses,
    particularlywhenwaterisakeyinputinproduction.
    Theycanhelptohighlighttrade-ofs,costsandben-
    ets/co-benetsthatwouldotherwisenotbeappar-
    enttobusinessowners.Inagovernment-ledexample
    ofthis,theprovincialgovernmentoftheNorthwest
    TerritoriesinCanadaestablishedacomprehensive
    frameworkforwaterplanningthatincludesavision
    andstrategy,aswellasanactionplanforachieving
    watersustainabilitygoalsacrossallsectors.Thisalso
    includesresearchintothevariousvaluesofwater,from
    marketvaluetoecologicalservicesprovidedbywater-
    sheds,aswellasculturalvalues(NWT,2010).
    Riskmanagementisanintegralpartofbusiness,and
    asnotedbytheWorldEconomicForum(2011),isbe-
    comingincreasinglynecessaryasthenatureofrisks
    anduncertaintiesthemselvesevolve,imposingcom-
    plexandinterconnectedconsiderationsonbusinesses
    andgovernmentsaliketoday.Whereasindustryand
    businesseslearntodealwithuncertaintiestoprotect
    andwealthcreationtheycanprovideinacity,lead-
    ingthemtoestablishthemselvesinlocationswhere
    theymayhaveimpactsonwater(nearwaterbodies)
    orwheretheycanmorereadilyusewater.Forexam-
    ple(asseeninChapter9),governmentsmayfacilitate
    landacquisitionsbyforeignentitiesforfoodorother
    production,becauseofthewealthitgeneratesforthe
    country,butmaybeignorantofthepotentialimpacts
    theseactivitiescouldhaveontheirwaterresources.
    Theoppositeisalsotrue.Governmentsmaychooseto
    attractinvestmentsthatprovidethehighestvaluefor
    waterunits,althoughexamplesofsuchtypesofdeci-
    sionremainunfortunatelyrare.Box14.3illustrateshow
    abusinessdecision,initiallymotivatedbyprotand
    theneedtoaccessnaturalresourcesforproduction,
    hashelpedtoreducerisksanduncertaintiesrelatedto
    futurewaterscarcitybyprovidinganadditionalwater
    reserveforcommunitiesandtheenvironment.

    Toolssuchastheproperpricingandvaluationofwater
    resources(includingchargesforwaterabstractionand
    CHAPTER14 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    Source: Reproduced from WBCSD (n.d.).
    BOX 14.4
    Implicitvaluationreducesbusinessandwaterrisks
    RioTintoAluminiumsWeipabauxite-miningoperationsinAustraliahavemultiplesourcesofwater,eachofwhichhasitsown
    associatedcostsandadditionalvalues.Thefourmainsourcesare:
    Decantwaterrecycledorreusedwaterfromthetailingsdamwherethematerialsleftoverafterextractingthemined
    materialarestored.Thesematerialsoftenincludemuds,leachates,chemicalresidues,aswellascrushedrock).
    Siterainfallrunofcapturedinslotslikesmallwellsandothersmallstoragesitesacrossthemininglease
    Shallowaquifersunderlyingthearea
    1hedeeperaquifersoftheCreatArtesianBasin
    Availabilityofthediferentsourcescanvaryduringtheyear,particularlythersttwo.RioTintoidentiedthelevelofsensi-
    tivityoftheshallowaquifersandtheGreatArtesianBasinduringnormalenvironmentalriskmanagementprocesses.Thishas
    beenreinforcedbyengagementwithkeystakeholders,includingtheGreatArtesianBasinCoordinatingCommitteeandnon-
    governmentalorganizations.Thelatterhavefocusedontheconnectivitythatcanoccurbetweentheshallowaquifersand
    localrivers.
    Theseprocesseshaveaidedtheestablishmentofaformalhierarchyofsources,directingtheoperationtosourcerstfrom
    tailingsdams,thenslots,thentheshallowaquifers,andnallytheGreatArtesianBasinaquifers.
    Ingeneral,thecostsassociatedwithsourcingfromtailingsdamsandslotsarelessthanthosearisingfromoperatingbore-
    eldsfedbyundergroundaquifers.However,duetothelargeareaofthemininglease,therearesituationswhereitcouldbe
    bothcheaperandmoreconvenienttosourcefromoneofthelatter.
    Theestablishmentofthesourcinghierarchyefectivelyplacesanimplicitvalueonthenaturalsourcesofwater.Inthecaseofthe
    GreatArtesianbasin,thefocusisonthelong-termsustainabilityoftheresource,asithastheslowestrateofrecharge.Theshallow
    aquifersrechargeveryquicklyduetotheclimate;theirshallowdepth,though,canbelinkedmorecloselytotheriverecosystems.
    349
    manufactur[ing]plantsthatusewastepaperasraw
    materialrequiremorewaterpertonofpaperproduced
    toremoveink,dirt,plastic,andothercontaminants
    fromthepulpslurry.Second,reuseofwaterraises
    chemicaloxygendemandlevelsinefuent,making
    wastewaterhardertodisposeof(KlopandWellington,
    2008,p.30).Usingrecycledmaterial,althoughgood
    fromapublicimageperspective,canhavenegative
    environmentalconsequencesifnotundertakenwithin
    afulllife-cycleoverhaulofproductionprocesses.
    Box14.5illustratesoneexampleofabusinessdeci-
    siondrivenbothbytheneedtoaddressaccesstokey
    productioninputandtoincreasethepositiveimageof
    thecompanybrand.ThePepsiCo2010annualreport
    describesvariousefortstoreduceitsenvironmental
    footprint,byincreasingwater-useefciencyandby
    workingwithnon-governmentalorganizations(NGOs)
    (TheNatureConservancy)toimplementenvironmen-
    talrehabilitationandconservationeforts.
    14.4Managingsectoralriskstogenerate
    benetstowater
    Intheabsenceofacomprehensiveframeworkfor
    managingtheincreasinglycomplextrade-ofsbe-
    tweenpolicychoices,oneapproachmaybetomanage
    sectoralrisksinawaythatseekstomaximizebenets
    ofwater,orthatreducestheuncertaintiesandrisks
    facedbywaterusers.Thiscanreducethenumberof
    variables,driversanddeterminantstobeconsideredin
    agivenpolicyorinvestmentchoice,yethelptocreate
    winwinsituations.Thefollowingsectionprovidesex-
    amplesofsuchwinwinsituations.
    14.4.1Reducingrisksandcostsinthetransportsector
    Buildinglargeinfrastructurerequiresacertaindegree
    offorecastingtoensuretheviabilityofinvestments.
    Mostlarge-scaleprojectsfortransportationnowin-
    cludesomemechanismforreducingfutureuncertain-
    ties,particularlyasregardsclimatechange,asseen
    above,butalsotakeintoconsiderationotherdrivers
    suchaspopulationandconsumptionpatterns.
    Box14.6illustrateshowonecompany,inanefortto
    lengthenthedurabilityofitsinfrastructureinvestment
    andreducemaintenancecosts,hasundertakenmeas-
    urestoreducedamagerisks,whichhaveinreturnhad
    positiveimpactsonreducinguncertaintiesregarding
    futurewaterowsandsupplyinthesurroundingre-
    gion,withtheaddedbenetofprovidingdevelopmen-
    talandenvironmentalassets.
    theirinvestment,governmentsandcommunitiescan
    applysimilarriskmanagementmodelstoprotecttheir
    ownlivelihoods,safetyanddevelopment.
    Otherfactorsarealsoincreasinglymotivatingbusi-
    nessestotakecertaintypesofdecisions,inparticular
    relatedtobusinessorbrandimage,reputationalrisk
    andsocialresponsibility.AsnotedinaCERESreport
    (2010),licensetooperatecannolongerbetakenfor
    granted,asresourcesbecomeincreasinglyscarce,
    andconsumersandshareholdersdemandgreater
    accountabilityinrelationtosustainabilityandequity
    standards.
    Unfortunately,notallwell-intentioned,reputation-
    basedbusinessdecisionsleadtopositiveimpacts
    onwater.Inarecentstudy,itwasnotedthatpaper
    WWDR4 RESPONSESTORISKSANDUNCERTAINTIESFROMOUTOFTHEWATERBOX
    Source: Reproduced from PepsiCo (2011, p. 33).
    BOX 14.5
    Businessdecisiontopromotereputational
    advantageleadstowaterbenets
    Waterefciencyhaslongbeenanenvironmentalfocus
    atPepsiCo.Throughthethirdquarterof2010,ourglobal
    foodandbeveragebusinessesreducedwater-useinten-
    sityby19.5%versus2006.Andwereontracktoachieve
    our2015targetforcompany-ownedfacilities.Upgrading
    ourfacilitieswithnewtechnologiesisoneimportantway
    wearereachingthisgoal.Forexample,ourFrito-Layfa-
    cilityinCasaGrande,Arizonahasbeenequippedwitha
    state-of-the-artwaterltrationandpuricationsystem
    thatcanrecycleandreuseupto75%ofthewaterusedin
    production.Similartechnologyisalsobeingdeployedin
    ourTingalpafacilityinAustralia,awater-stressedarea.
    In2009,PepsiCosoperationsinIndiaachievedpositive
    waterbalance,enablingustogivebacktosocietymore
    waterthanweusedtomanufactureourproducts.Toex-
    pandthisachievementtootherwater-distressedareas
    wherewehaveapresence,wehavelaunchedanumber
    ofprojects.In2010,forexample,webeganworkingwith
    TheNatureConservancytodevelopwaystoidentifyar-
    easofhighwaterrisk,sowecanfocusourattentionand
    resourcesonachievingnetpositivewaterimpactinthe
    mostvulnerableareaswhereweoperate.Wehaveselect-
    edwatershedsinChina,Mexico,Europe,IndiaandtheUS
    topilotthedevelopmentofaexibleandrobustsystem
    thatallowsPepsiCoplantsnotonlytocharacterizetheir
    waterrisk,butalsoidentifylocallyrelevantrestorationini-
    tiativesthatwillimprovewateravailability.
    350
    Mostproblemsontheplannedroadoccurduringtherainyseasonwhenwatergathersonroadsandthenrunsof,causing
    erosionandroaddamage.SoAutovias,acompanybelongingtotheSpanishgroupObrasconHuarteLainS.A.(OHL),hasde-
    velopedaprojectthatcollectswateronthehighwayssurfacesanddirectsittowardstheGuaraniaquiferrechargezone.
    Thecompanydesignedtheprogrammainlytoprotectthisvitalwaterresource.Autoviasearnsnodirectincomefromputting
    waterintotheaquifer,buttheprogramhelpsdecreasetheneedforroadmaintenanceandpreventswashouts,thussaving
    thecompanymoney.
    Autoviashaswonafranchisetomanage316.5kmofhighwaysinBrazilsSoPauloState.Thisinvolvesanumberofactivities,
    includinginfrastructureconstruction,whichoftenchangesthelandscape,modifyingwaterdynamicswithincatchmentar-
    eas.Thiscanleadtoerosion,settling,decreasedgroundwaterinltration,particularlyinaquiferrechargecapacity,anddirect
    changesinthelocalhydrologicalcycle.
    Autoviassenvironmentalcommitmenttopresentandfuturegenerationsisfocusedonguaranteeingthequalityofthehy-
    drologicalcycle,efectivelyusingandrecyclingwaterresources,anddevelopingpublicawarenessofthecorrectuseofwater
    resources.
    TheGuaraniaquifer,theworldslargestknownaquifer,coversanareaofmorethan1.2millionkm
    2
    andisunderallthehigh-
    waythecompanymanages.Thismega-aquiferextendsunderBrazil,Paraguay,UruguayandArgentina.Itmaycontainover
    40,000km
    3
    ofwater,whichismorethanallthewatercontainedinalloftheEarthsrivers.
    TheWaterwayProgramconsistsofbuildingrainwatercontainmentdamsalongthehighwaygridmanagedbythecompa-
    ny,particularlyintheareasofpublic-supplysprings,waterwaysandheadwaterslocatedwithinthedrainagebasinsofthe
    Sapuca-Mirim,PardoandGranderivers.
    Some520rainwatercontainmentdamshavebeenbuilt,withanaveragecapacityof4,000m
    3
    ,makingpossibleastorageca-
    pacityofapproximately2millionm
    3
    ofrainwaterandrainwaterrunofalongthetollroadnetworkandadjacentareasduring
    therainyseason.Thecontributionareaofthebasinextendstoapproximately5,200ha.
    Theseworksstorerainwaterowingfromthehighwaysandadjacentareas;slowthespeedofthewater,allowingittore-
    chargetheaquifer,andpreventthewatertablefromfallingandthegroundfromerodingandbeingdislodgedalongdrainage
    areas.
    andhealthierdiets,suchastheuseofpublictransport.
    Thesearenotedashavingpotentialforco-benetsin
    termsofaddressingGHGemissions,reducingpollu-
    tionandpromotinghealthierlifestyles.Theyalsohave
    signicantco-benetsforwater,byreducingtheuse
    ofwaterconsumedasaresultofmeatconsumption,
    andalsobyreducingtheriskofwaterpollutionfrom
    unsustainableorinefcienttransport.
    Inanotherexample,winwinbenetsbetweenwater
    andhealthplanningcanbefoundastheworldscon-
    cernoverpandemicsandrapidlytransmissibleanimal
    andhumandiseasesincreases.Sincewateractsasa
    vectoroftransmissionorasadeterminingfactorinthe
    prevalenceofcertaintransmissiblediseases,eforts
    14.4.2Reducinghealthrisksincludesreducing
    waterrisks
    Lifestylechoicesoftenhaveunintendedormisunder-
    stoodimpactsonnaturalresources.Meat-richdiets,
    commonindevelopedcountries,andontherisein
    rapidlyemergingcountries,arealsohavinganimpact
    onsoil,landandwaterresources.
    Inarecentarticle,CaponandRissel(2010)showthe
    correlationbetweenclimatechangeandchronicdis-
    ease,withdietasthemainfactor.Meat-richdietsand
    lowratesofexercisecontributetocreatingheavy
    diseaseburdensandhighhealthcostsinmanydevel-
    opedcountries.Thereareanumberofprogrammes
    alreadyunderwaytopromotemoreactivelifestyles
    CHAPTER14 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    Source: Reproduced from WBCSD (n.d).
    BOX 14.6
    AutoviassWaterwayProgramdecreasedtheneedforroadmaintenancewhilehelpingtorechargeoneof
    Brazilsmostimportantaquifers
    351
    choices,risksanduncertaintiesfacingpolicy-makersto-
    day.Examplesaboundofthevariousintendedorunin-
    tendedconsequencesoffavouringonepillaroverthe
    other(e.g.foodsecurityvs.energysecurity).Forexam-
    ple,theInternationalEnergyOrganization(IEA)predicts
    thatatleast5%ofglobalroadtransportwillbepowered
    bybiofuel[by2030]over3.2millionbarrelsperday.
    However,producingthosefuelscouldconsumebetween
    20100%ofthetotalquantityofwaternowusedworld-
    wideforagriculture(WEF,2011,p.31)iftheproduction
    processesandtechnologyremainunchanged.Another
    exampleisshalegasextraction,whichpromisesaccessto
    newreservesoffossilfuels,butishighlywater-intensive
    andmayposearisktowaterquality.
    Akeychallengewillthereforebetoincorporatethe
    complexinterconnectionsofrisksintoresponse
    toprevent(orpreparefor)globalpandemicscould
    generatebenetsformanagingrisksanduncertainties
    relatedtowater.AWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)
    studyrevealedthatthereturnoninvestmentfrom
    eachdollarspentonwaterandsanitationindevel-
    opingcountrieswouldbebetweenUS$5andUS$28
    (HuttonandHaller,2004).
    Box14.7illustrateshowcrowdsourcingcanprovidea
    toolforreducingriskanduncertaintiesinvarioussec-
    tors,fromcrisestopandemics,withsidebenetsfor
    watermanagement.
    14.4.3Risingrisksanduncertaintiesfromtheenergy
    sector
    Anumberofinternationalorganizationshighlightthe
    water-food-energynexusasillustratingthemostdifcult
    WWDR4
    Note: For more information on CreekWatch see http://creekwatch.researchlabs.ibm.com/
    BOX 14.7
    Crowd-sourcedhealthinformationreducesrisksanduncertaintiesforwater
    IntheaftermathofthetsunamiinJapan,in2011,anumberofinitiativesbegangatheringinformationonsurvivors,radiation
    levelsandrescueeforts.Ushahidi,aninternationalcrowd-sourcingplatform,helpedtoestablishasitededicatedtomapping
    dangerzonesandrelocatinglostfamilymembers.Thesiteenabledanyonewithamobilephoneorsmartphonetopostde-
    tailsofsurvivorsindifcult-to-reachorunsafeareas.Thisinformationwasthenrelayedtorescueoperations.Inturn,thesite
    postedeasilyaccessibleinformationonthenearestemergencyservicesstations,aswellaslocationsofsafewatersupplies
    andfoodstores(Bonner,2011).Pachubeprovidedanothersitewherereal-timeradiationreadingstakenbycitizens,com-
    binedwithofcialdata,wereuploadedontomappingsoftwaretoprovideatooltohelptrackradiationmovements.Thisalso
    enabledgroupedmonitoringoftapwaterquality.
    Anotherapplication,developedbyGoogleTrends,enabledpassivecrowdsourcingofhealthinformation.Basedonastatistical
    analysisofsearchwordsenteredinagivenlocation,theservicewasabletomonitorand,insomecases,predictuoutbreaksin
    theUnitedStatesofAmericaandCanadawithhighdegreesofaccuracy(Google,2011).Governmentauthoritiesandwaterman-
    agerscouldusesimilarmechanismstoobtainreal-timewateravailabilityandqualityreports.Infact,anumberofapplications
    existtodaywherebyuserscanuploadinformationonthestatusofwaterlevelsandqualityintheirarea(seeCreekWatch).
    BerkeleystudentsinIndialaunchedtheNextDropprojecttoassisthouseholdstopredictwateravailability,providingfur-
    therproofthatcrowdsourcinginthehealthsectorcanhelpreducewateruncertainties,includingthoserelatedtowater.
    Informationaboutlocalpipedwaterdeliverieswasdeliveredovercellphonesfromwaterutilityemployeeswhocallaninter-
    activevoiceresponsesystemwhentheyopenvalvestodistributewater.Thesereportsareusedtogeneratereal-timewater
    availabilityupdatesandnotications30-60minutesinadvanceofwaterdelivery.Inaddition,NextDropusescrowd-sourcing
    toverifytheaccuracyofutilityreportsandcreateafeedbackloop,introducingmuchneededvisibilityforengineersinthe
    waterutility.(NextDrop,n.d.)
    AsimilarpartnershipisbeingenteredbetweenGoogleandUNHabitatinZanzibar,wherepartnersworkedtogethertoes-
    tablishcitizen-basedparticipatorymonitoringtechniquestosupportandempowercommunitiesinthemanagementoftheir
    newlyconstructedwaterresources.Asystemforcollectionofgeo-referenceddata,disaggregatedbygenderandsocio-eco-
    nomicgroup,andsupportedbyinformationonthehealthandenvironmentalstatuswasdeveloped.Thepartnershiphasalso
    establishedasystemofbenchmarkingserviceprovidersnotonlytoimproveservicecoverageandefciency,butalsotoen-
    hanceaccountabilitytocustomers(UN-Habitat,2010).
    RESPONSESTORISKSANDUNCERTAINTIESFROMOUTOFTHEWATERBOX
    352
    Waterusuallyfeaturesprominentlyinurbanplan-
    ningconsiderations,buttheintegrationofwaters
    variousvaluesandusesandtherisksanduncer-
    taintiesafectingeachoftheseisrathermorere-
    cent.Box14.8illustrateshowacityhasundertaken
    amodellingexerciseinordertodeterminetrade-
    ofs,whileconsideringwatersvariousvaluesinthe
    community.
    14.5Mitigatingrisksanduncertainties
    Whenitisnotpossibletominimizerisksortore-
    duceuncertainties,itissometimespossibletomini-
    mizetheconsequencesthroughmechanismsthat
    helpshareriskburden,orthatmitigatethevarious
    negativeconsequencesofagivenpossibleoutcome.
    Insuranceisofoneoftheoldestsuchmechanisms
    onethatisapplicabletoallsectors,butthatalso
    helpstoreducetheimpactsofwater-relatedrisks.
    Sharingorredistributingtheburdenofriskbecomes
    ausefulmechanismwherethepossibleconse-
    quencesofagivenriskareheavierforonegroupas
    comparedtoanother(forexample,theruralpoor
    canwithstandlessriskthanlargemultinational
    corporations).
    14.5.1Insuranceasariskminimizingmechanism
    Therearediferentwaysofsharingriskburden.One
    suchisriskspreadingacrossspace(geographicrisk
    spreading),forexample,wherecomplementarycli-
    matepatternshavebeenidentiedindiferentregions.
    InAfrica,forexample,adryseasonintheeasternre-
    gionisoftenassociatedwithawetterseasoninthe
    southernregion,andviceversa.Thisobservationis
    linkedtotheENSOphenomenon:LaNiaeventsare
    associatedwithlowerrainfallineasternAfricaand
    higherrainfallinsouthernAfrica,whileduringElNio
    thereversepatternisoftenseen.Thiscouldprovide
    amechanismwherebyrisksanduncertaintiesrelated
    toprecipitationandvariabilitycouldbesharedacross
    borders.
    Index-based(orparametric)insuranceisalsoemerg-
    ingasapotentiallypowerfultoolforriskmanagement
    inallsectors.Thisformofinsuranceislinkedtoan
    indexorevent,suchasrainfall,temperature,humid-
    ityorcropyields,ratherthantotheamountofactual
    loss.Ratherthanaddressingtheamountofactualloss,
    thisapproachmakestheproductmoreattractiveand
    moreaccessibletodevelopingcountryclienteles,while
    remainingananciallyviableproductforinsurance
    providers.
    CHAPTER14 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    Source: Reproduced from Hulse et al. (2000, 2000 by the Board
    of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System. Reproduced
    courtesy of the University of Wisconsin Press.).
    BOX 14.8
    Landscapeanalysishelpsreduceuncertainties
    withinurbanplanningrequirements:Thecase
    ofOregon
    Thedevelopmentofspatiallyexplicitlandscapeanalyses
    isaprincipalactivityinresearchontherelationshipsbe-
    tweenhumanactivitiesandchangesoccurringinnatural
    systems.Usinggeographicalinformationsystemsandre-
    latedtoolsweproduceddigitalandpaperrepresentations
    depictingthepast,present,andpotentialfuturecondi-
    tionsofa320km
    2
    watershedinwesternOregon.These
    toolswereusedtoidentifytrendsoverspaceandtime
    inhumanoccupancyandnaturalresources.Basedona
    setofvaluesanddesiredfutureconditionsdevelopedby
    workingwithcitizengroups,digitalrepresentationsofthe
    alternativefuturelandscapeswereevaluatedfortheiref-
    fectsonwaterqualityandbiodiversityusinghydrological
    andecologicalefectsmodels.Thewaterqualityevalua-
    tivemodel,anon-pointpollutantsourcegeographicinfor-
    mationsystemmodel,simulatedstormeventsbasedon
    elddatatocalculatepollutantloadsacrossthevealter-
    nativefutures,thepresent,andthepast.Thebiodiversity
    evaluativemodelmeasuredthechangeinspeciesrichness
    andpotentialhabitatareaforbreedingspeciesineachal-
    ternativefutureandinthepastandcomparedthesedata
    tothepresent.
    Resultsfromthewaterqualitymodelshowincreasesin
    thevolumeofsurfacewaterrunofandtotalsuspended
    solidsunderthedevelopment-orientedfuturesincatch-
    mentsundergoingsignicantlyincreasedresidentialde-
    velopmentorhavingahighpercentageofareainerosive
    soilsonsteepslopes.Resultsfromthebiodiversitymodel
    showthatallnativespecieshaveatleastsomehabitatin
    allalternativefutures.Iflandusetrendsinthewatershed
    continueunchangedorbecomemorehighlydeveloped,
    therewillbeanincreasedrisktoabundanceofextantna-
    tivespecies.Thesetofspeciesatriskinthedevelopment-
    orientedfuturesdiferssignicantlyincompositionandis
    placedatriskatahigherratethaninthepast,suggesting
    thatthekindsofhabitatchangestodatediferfromthose
    envisionedinthealternative.
    strategiesthatareintegratedandtakeintoaccount
    themanyrelevantstakeholders.
    14.4.4Winwinreductionofuncertaintiesthrough
    betterintegratedurbanplanning
    Modellingtoolscanalsohelptoreduceuncertainties
    whenconsideringvariousdriversandpolicyoptions.
    353
    reducingotherrisks,throughtheestablishmentof
    trust-buildingmechanismsandacertainamountof
    predictabilityinstakeholderbehaviours.
    AsnotedbyDreischovaetal.(2001),uncertaintiesre-
    latedtowaterarenotalwaysfullyrecognizedintreaty
    designorintheelaborationofwatercollaboration
    mechanisms.Theadoptionofopen-endedstrategies,
    allowingforexiblerule-makingwithintheagree-
    ments,indicatesagrowingunderstandingofhowun-
    certaintiesmayafectwaterpolicy-making.Examples
    suchastheNileBasinInitiativeandtheSADCprotocol
    onSharedWatercourseSystemsprovidemechanisms
    formanagingrisks,decidingonallocationsandpro-
    motingtheapplicationofjointnorms.
    Theoppositeisalsotrue:agreementsandtreaties
    signedforpurposesotherthanwatermayhelpre-
    ducerisksanduncertaintiesregardingwater,par-
    ticularlywheretheyprovidemutualassuranceofthe
    otherpartysbehaviourregardingnaturalresourceuse.
    Peacetreatiescouldbetherstmechanismwherewa-
    terrisks(atleastthosethatarisefromhumanuse)are
    reduced.
    Tradeagreementsareoftencitedashavingpotentially
    negativeconsequences,orcreatingadditionalrisks,for
    water.Thecaseoftheinuenceoffreetradeagree-
    mentsonNorthAmericanwaterresourcesconstitutes
    onesuchexample.Evenpriortothesigningofthe
    NorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreement(NAFTA),there
    wasdebateastowhetherornotbulkwaterexports
    fromwater-richCanadacouldbepursuedorallowed
    underthecurrentregulatoryframework.Thesefears
    haveheightenedsincetheadoptionofNAFTA,spe-
    cicallyoverwhethersurfaceandgroundwaterin
    itsnaturalstate(forexample,inlakesandrivers)is
    Box14.9illustratesacombinationofbothmechanisms,
    wheredisasterrisksanduncertaintiesarereduced
    throughtheapplicationoflossmodelling,andwhere
    risksareredistributedgeographicallythroughpooled
    purchaseofinsuranceproducts.
    14.5.2Treatiesasamechanismsforreducing
    uncertainties
    Conictamongnaturalresourceusersaswellascivil
    unrestcancreatepressuresonwaterdirectlyorin-
    directly.Treatiesandagreementshavealwaysbeen
    mechanismstoreduceuncertaintiesregardingfuture
    safety,provisionofservicesoraccesstoresources.
    Watertreatiesoragreementsregardingwaterallo-
    cationinsharedtransboundarybasinsaremultiply-
    ing,andareoftenquotedashavingsidebenetsfor
    WWDR4
    Source: CCRIF (2011).
    BOX 14.9
    TheCaribbeanCatastropheRiskInsuranceFacility
    (CCRIF)
    TheCaribbeanCatastropheRiskInsuranceFacility
    (CCRIF)isbasedongeographicriskspreading.TheCCRIF
    isdesignedtolimittheimpactofextremeweatherevents
    suchashurricanes,severerainfalleventsandearthquakes.
    Itprovidesfundswhenspeciceventsoccur,usingpara-
    metricformulas.
    WithoriginalfundingfromtheJapanesegovernment,
    CCRIFhasbeenrecapitalizedthroughamulti-donor
    trustfundandmaintainedbymembershipfeespaidby
    the16participatinggovernments:Anguilla,Antiguaand
    Barbuda,Bahamas,Barbados,Belize,Bermuda,Cayman
    Islands,Dominica,Grenada,Haiti,Jamaica,St.Kittsand
    Nevis,St.Lucia,St.VincentandtheGrenadines,Trinidad
    andTobagoandTurksandCaicosIslands.
    Participatingcountriespooltheircountry-specicrisks
    intoone,diversiedinsuranceportfolio.Asnaturaldis-
    asterrisksinanygivenyeararerandomlydistributed
    amongtheCaribbeanislands,thecostofcoverageforthe
    pooledportfolioislessthanthesumofpremiumsthat
    thecountrieswouldhavetopayindividuallyforthesame
    coverage.Inpractice,insurancepremiumsarereducedby
    almosthalf.
    TheCCRIFalsousesacatastrophemodellingapproach
    (seeChapter13)asameansofunderstandingthescope
    ofpotentiallossesfromagivenrisk,andthereforeasa
    basisforpricinginsurancepremiumsforagiventerritory.
    There are diferent
    ways of sharing risk
    burden. One such is
    risk spreading across
    space (geographic risk
    spreading).
    RESPONSESTORISKSANDUNCERTAINTIESFROMOUTOFTHEWATERBOX
    354
    asituationwhereconictwasalreadyrampantand
    weaponswerealreadyavailable,thishasdegenerated
    intowidespreadhumanitariandisaster.
    Creatingconditionsfornationalandregionalsecurity
    canalsogeneratemultiplebenetsforwaterandbe-
    comeamechanismfordealingwithfuturewaterrisks
    anduncertainties.Muchhasalreadybeensaidabout
    thepotentialroleofwatercooperationincreatingthe
    conditionsforpeace-buildingacrossborders,namely
    bycreatingconditionsoftrust,jointobjectivesand
    institutions,andgradualachievementsthatcanlater
    translateintobroadercooperation.
    Howevertheoppositeisalsotrue.Cooperationonse-
    curityissuescanhelptoaddresswaterconcerns,and
    therebyhelptocreateconditionsfordevelopmentand
    growthonallsides.Thiswasrecentlyrecognizedby
    theOrganizationforSecurityinCentralEurope(OSCE),
    whichworkstoestablishregionalcooperationframe-
    worksamongcountriesofCentralAsiaaroundwater
    (surfaceandgroundwater)management(Box14.10).
    Theroleofwaterasapotentialfactorofstabil-
    ityinwar-torncountriesorincountriesrecovering
    fromconictwasalsoraisedinarecentUSstudyon
    Afghanistan.Thestudyrecommendedthatreconstruc-
    tionefortsfocusoncreatinginstitutionswiththeca-
    pacitytowithstandandmanageshocksandrisks,as
    wellasontheneedtoinstitutemoreefectivewater
    managementsystems,bothnationallyandregionally
    (USSenate,2011).
    Conclusion
    Thischapterhighlightshowmethodsusedtodealwith
    risksanduncertaintiesinallareasofsocio-economic
    developmentcanpositivelyornegativelyafectwater
    risksanduncertainties,leadingtopotentialrestrictions
    oranincreaseinthemanagementchoicesavailableto
    watermanagers.Riskmanagement,whetherittakes
    theformofavoidance,reductionormitigation,forms
    anintegralpartofallpolicy-making.Moreover,the
    complexityoftherisksanduncertaintiesnowfacing
    societyisincreasingandaccelerating.
    Understandingthewaychoicesimpactonwatercan
    helptoshapedecisionsthatmaximizebenetsinall
    domains,creatinglong-termsaferandmoresustain-
    ablepathwaysfordevelopment.Thisalsorequiresa
    clear-mindedconsiderationofimmediate,mid-term
    andlong-termtrade-ofs.
    subjecttoNAFTAobligations.Somearguethatthisis
    thecase.Atthesametime,however,thegovernments
    ofCanada,theUnitedStatesandMexicohaveexpress-
    lystatedthattheNAFTAdoesnotapplytowaterinits
    naturalstate(Johansen,2002,p.19).
    14.5.3Addressingwaterandsecurityconcerns
    throughmulti-sectoralcooperation
    Uncertaintiescontinuetogrow,whetherrelatedto
    climatechangeandresourcescarcityortoeconomic
    volatility,andsecurityconcernsremainattheforefront
    ofpolicy-makingeverywhere.Inthiscontext,water
    constitutesanexusofriskwherealltheseissuesmesh,
    sometimeswithdireconsequences.
    Forexample,therecentseveredroughtinEastAfrica,
    combinedwithongoingconictinSomaliaandSudan,
    hasresultedinhighlyvolatileconditionswherevio-
    lenceandfamineareafectingmillionsofpeople,al-
    readyamongthepoorestintheworld.Waterscarcity,
    whichhasledtocropandlivestockfailure,hasledto
    migrationandincreasedcompetitionforresources.In
    CHAPTER14 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    Source: Reproduced from OSCE (n.d.).
    BOX 14.10
    Creatingcooperativesecurity-basedinstitutions
    aroundwaterinCentralAsia
    [TheOSCEhasworkedwithKyrgystanandKazakhstan]
    inoperationalizingtheAgreementonUtilizationofthe
    WaterFacilitiesofInterstateUseontheChuandTalas
    Rivers.Asaresult,theinter-stateCommissionwases-
    tablishedandtheOSCEassistedin[settingupthe
    Commissionandinperformingsomerepairandmain-
    tenanceworkson]multi-purposewaterfacilities.This
    frameworkincludedmediationtoreachconsensusbe-
    tweenthegovernmentsofbothcountries.
    TheOSCEalsocontinuestosupporttheInterstate
    CommitteeforWaterCoordination(ICWC)inCentral
    Asiawithastrongemphasisonregionalco-operation,
    promotionofpoliciesonwatermanagementandenviron-
    mentalsustainabilityintheregion.Incollaborationwith
    theICWC,theOSCEisworkingonseminarstoimprove
    theeconomicmechanismsrelatedtowatermanagement
    andimproveenvironmentalconditionstopromoteco-
    operationintheregion.
    Closerinteractionbetweenthecountriesonthesustain-
    ablemanagementofwaterandwaterrelatedecosystems
    iskeytoensuringsecurityanddevelopmentintheregion.
    355
    Johansen,D.2002.Bulk Water Removals, Water Exports
    and the NAFTA. Ottawa,GovernmentofCanada,Law
    andGovernmentDivision.http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/
    Collection-R/LoPBdP/BP/prb0041-e.htm
    Klop,P.andWellington,F.2008.Watching Water: A
    Guide to Evaluating Corporate Risks in a Thirsty World.
    NewYork,JPMorganGlobalEquityResearch.http://
    www.questwatersolutions.com/Quest%20Water%20
    Solutions%20Inc./News_les/JPMorgan-WatchingWater-
    April%202008.pdf
    NextDrop.n.d.Website.AcollaborationofUCBerkeley
    SchoolofInformation,DepartmentofCiviland
    EnvironmentalEngineering,andGoldmanSchoolofPublic
    Policy.http://www.nextdrop.org
    NWT(NorthwestTerritories).2010.Northern Voices,
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    WWDR4 RESPONSESTORISKSANDUNCERTAINTIESFROMOUTOFTHEWATERBOX
    356 CHAPTER14 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK

    Authors RichardConnorandJoanaTalafr
    Contributor WilliamJ.Cosgrove
    CONCLUSIONS
    PhilippeBourseiller
    357 WWDR4 CONCLUSIONS
    ThisfourtheditionoftheWorld Water Development
    Report(WWDR4)reporthassoughttodemonstrate
    thechallengesfacingwatertodayandtheincreas-
    ingcomplexity,uncertaintiesandrisksoftomorrow,
    aswellastoprovideavenuesforrespondingtothese
    challengesinthenearfuture.Waterisatthecentreof
    thedevelopmentnexus,andithasfarreachingcon-
    nectionswitheveryrealmofhumanlifefromthe
    basicconcernsoffood,healthandenergy,beyondto
    industry,tradeandtheeconomy.Todaymostofthese
    sectorsfaceacrisis.Newapproachesthatwillprovide
    insightintopossiblefuturesandwhereresponses
    cansetthestageforfutureprosperityandavoidimmi-
    nentcatastrophearecalledfor.TheWWDR4reveals
    thatthepathtosolvingthesecrisesowsthroughwa-
    ter,andthatsolvingwaterproblemsnowisnecessary
    toensuringchancesforthefutureofourplanetand
    theprosperityofitspeople.
    Sadly,notmuchhaschangedsincethepublicationof
    thelastWWDRin2009.Nearly1billionpeoplestilldo
    nothaveaccesstoimprovedsourcesofdrinkingwater
    andtherearemorepeoplewithoutaccesstotapwater
    incitiestodaythantherewereattheendofthe1990s.
    Inaddition,1.4billionpeopledonothaveelectricityin
    theirhomes,andnearly1billionsuferfrommalnutri-
    tion.Althoughtherehasbeenprogressinachieving
    someofthewater-relatedMillenniumDevelopment
    Goals(MDGs)incertaincountriesandregions,much
    workremains,particularlytoaddressthespecial
    needsofthemostvulnerablemembersofsociety
    womenandchildrenwhobearthebruntofpoverty
    worldwide.
    Waterconstraintsonsustainabledevelopmenthave
    createdhotspotswheremultiplechallengesmesh
    andresultinaspiralofincreasingpoverty,uncer-
    taintyandinstability.Thishappensinallregions,
    thoughtherootofthechallengesmaydiferfrom
    oneregiontothenext.InAfricathereisinsufcient
    investmentinwaterinfrastructureandaccessibility,
    compoundedbylowlevelsoftechnicalandinsti-
    tutionalcapacity,over-consumptionandpollution,
    whichcreatesincreasingconstraintsonNorthAfrican
    countrieseconomies.InAsia,growingpopulation
    andurbanizationcreatechallengesforsanitation,
    anddisputesbetweenusersaswellashighexposure
    tonaturaldisastersandextremeeventsexacerbate
    existingvulnerability,riskanduncertainty.Demand
    isever-increasingwithinsomeArabandWestern
    Asiancountriesthatarealreadyfacingseverescarcity
    constraints,andinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,
    increaseddemandfuelledbyindustry,tradeand
    growingeconomiesisalsoposingachallengealong-
    sidegovernancesystemsthatareofteninadequateto
    dealwiththepressures.
    Fromasectoralperspective,pressuresonwatercon-
    tinuetogrowandtechnologicalinnovationthatcould
    providemuchneededwatersavingsisstillnotfully
    implemented.Agriculture,thelargestwateruser,con-
    tinuestobepracticedinawater-inefcientmannerin
    manycountries;indevelopingcountries,thisismostly
    duetoalackofcapacityorpoliticalsupport.Higher
    percapitaratesofenergyconsumptionandrapidly
    growingenergydemandarealsoexertingincreased
    pressureonwater,withwater-intensiveenergysources
    stillbeingthechiefpartoftheenergyportfoliointhe
    vastmajorityofcountries.Greatquantitiesoffreshwa-
    terareusedforurbansanitation(incitieswheresani-
    tationservicesareavailable),anddemandsforfresh-
    waterareincreasingtomeetMDGtarget7c.Thevast
    majorityofwastewaterisreturnedtotheenvironment
    withouttreatment,generatinghealthriskstohumans
    andecosystems.
    AswasdiscussedinChapter2,waterdemandisaf-
    fectedbyanumberofdrivers,andwhilethereisun-
    certaintyabouthoweachofthesewillevolveinfuture,
    itissomewhatcertainthatdemandwillincreasethe
    bigquestionsremaining,Where?andByhowmuch?
    Itisalsosomewhatcertainthat,allotherthingsre-
    mainingequal,ifourapproachestomanagementre-
    mainthesame,andifourdevelopmenttrajectories
    continuewithoutsomeinterjectionthatalterstheir
    course,waterresourceswillbeinsufcienttomeetall
    futuredemands.Infact,inmanyregionsandcountries
    thatarefacingscarcitytoday(Chapter7).
    AsdescribedthroughoutPart2ofthisreport,the
    worldischangingfasterthaneverandbecomingmore
    andmorecomplex.Uncertaintiesaboutwateravail-
    abilityanddemandareincreasing,asaretheassoci-
    atedriskstodevelopmentandwell-beingofpeople,
    societiesandtheenvironment.Unlesswecangener-
    atetheawarenessandpoliticalwilltoreactnow,the
    crisesweareexperiencingnowarelikelytoescalate
    andtheoddsofmeetingourdevelopmentalgoalswill
    degenerate.However,theharshrealitiesofexisting
    challengesoutlinedthroughouttheWWDR4mustnot
    completelyovershadowimportantprogressachieved
    sinceWWDR3.
    358
    concernednationalgovernmentsasitisthenational
    governmentsthatdrivetheinternationalpolicyhave
    aresponsibilitytobringwaterissuesforwardonthe
    internationalstage,sothatcommonproblemscannd
    sharedsolutions.
    AsnotedinChapter5,waterisafugitiveresource,
    anditsroleintheglobaleconomyisubiquitousbut
    difculttograsp.Ifwecontinuetoignoreitsfunda-
    mentalrolesandvalues(andtounderestimatethe
    valueofitsmanybenets)ineverydaydecisions,atall
    levels,wewillhaveexhaustedtheresourcesfullpoten-
    tialbeforewecanadoptalternatebehaviours.Water
    managersneedtotakeapro-activeleadershiprolein
    educatingandinformingdecision-makersinallsectors
    aboutthediferentvaluesofwater,itsmultipleben-
    etstodevelopment,andabouttheoptionsthatcan
    helpmaximizeco-benetsforhumansocio-economic
    well-beingthroughwater,therebyefectivelyminimiz-
    ingpotentiallynegativetrade-ofs.Thesewinwinap-
    proachesabound,ascanbeseenfromtheexamples
    inChapters13and14,andmanytoolsexistforsectoral
    managementadaptivemanagement,science-based
    tools,economicapproachesandotherpolicymecha-
    nismstohelpdelivermultiplebenets.
    Managingwaterinacontextofincreasingandincreas-
    inglycomplexuncertaintyrequiresnewapproaches
    thatfunctionacrosssectoralandinstitutionalbounda-
    riestocreatenewcoalitionsamongwaterusersand
    providers.Suchmanagementapproachesarealready
    underwayinmanycontexts,andmanycountrieshave
    experiencetoshowcase.Transboundarywatershed
    management,multi-disciplinaryscenario-basedplan-
    ning,andgreenaccountingmechanismsarecurrently
    beingimplementedindevelopedaswellasdevelop-
    ingcountries.However,broaderimprovementwill
    requireinstitutionstoevolveintomoreexibledia-
    logue-basedmechanismsthatpromotecontinuous
    discussiononsocialgoalsandtargetsandthatprovide
    supportforrapiddecision-makingonwateralloca-
    tionandmanagementinresponsetorapidlychanging
    circumstances.
    Successfulwatermanagementwillalsorequireanex-
    plicitrecognitionoftheeconomicvaluesofwaterand
    itsdiferentbenets,asseeninChapter10,notonly
    becausethereisaneedtopromoteinvestmentinwa-
    terinfrastructureandinstitutions,butbecausewith-
    outsuchinvestment,waterwillbecometheghostin
    themachine:thecurrenteconomicmodelencourages
    Thereisinfactincreasingrecognitionofthelinkbe-
    tweenwaterandotheraspectsofdevelopment,as
    exempliedbytheConferenceontheWater,Energy
    andFoodSecurityNexus(Bonn,November2011).The
    increasingrecognitioncanbeseenasapositivede-
    velopmentforwater,especiallyassomeofthemost
    prominentinitiativeshavebeenledbyactorsfrom
    theenergyandfoodsector,andmaybeviewedas
    increasedrecognitionofwatersimportanceindevel-
    opment.Withoutfullyimplemented(andadaptable)
    plansforintegratedwaterresourcesmanagement
    (IWRM),thenexusdialoguecreatesapragmaticand
    substantialopportunityforinformeddecision-making
    outsidethewaterbox.Therehavebeenimprove-
    mentsinIWRMaswell:preliminaryndingsfroma
    2011UN-Waterglobalsurveytodetermineprogress
    towardsIWRMshowawideradoptionofintegrated
    approacheswithsignicantimpactondevelopment
    andwatermanagementpracticesatacountrylev-
    el(Chapter1).Therehavealsobeensomeadvances
    madeundertherecentUnitedNationsFramework
    ConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)Conferences
    oftheParties(COPs)(Chapter1).
    Unfortunately,whilemanystakeholdersrecognizein
    theorythatwaterisafundamentalaspectofachiev-
    ingglobalgoals,manysuchastheMDGsandother
    internationalandnationalprocessescontinuetotreat
    waterconcernsasseparatefromotherissuesandchal-
    lenges;asdoforexampleclimatechangenegotiations
    andtheUNCSD2012(Rio+20)process.Yetasseenin
    thisreport,failuretoaddresswaterconcernscreates
    untenablerisksanduncertaintiesforalldevelopmen-
    talsectorsagriculture,energy,industry,healthand
    livelihoodswithconsequencesforglobaltradeand
    economicgrowth.
    Waterpolicy-makersandresourcemanagersarebe-
    ginningtounderstandthatlong-termcross-sectoral
    actionisrequiredtomanagetheresourceappropri-
    ately.Policy-makersinothersectorsalsoneedtosee
    thebenetsofrallyingtothisposition,andtheyneed
    toparticipateinanintegratedapproachtoaddress-
    ingmultiplesectorchallenges,managinginter-related
    risksandreducinguncertainties.Governmentsandwa-
    termanagershavearesponsibilitytoworkwithstake-
    holdersandwaterusersinmakingdecisionsabout
    re-allocatingwatertothemostappropriateandequi-
    tableusesforachievingnationaldevelopmentgoals.
    But,aswater-relatedproblemsextendbeyondnation-
    alboundariesintoallspheresoftheglobaleconomy,
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    359 WWDR4
    forwatersustainablefutures,ifharnessedappropri-
    ately,motivatingtechnologicalprogresstowardsmore
    resourceefciency,lesswaste,andlesspollution.Many
    businessesareinfactonestepaheadofgovernments,
    byactingonarecognitionthat,inthelongterm,envi-
    ronmentalsustainabilityorwaterstewardshipisapre-
    requisitetoeconomicsustainability.Indeed,insome
    cases,largeprivatesectorrmshaveshownaneager-
    nesstorespondtothemarketsappetiteforcorporate
    responsibilitybyinvestinginecologicalstewardship
    which,inexchange,providesthemwithefcientand
    continuedaccesstoresources.However,thistypeof
    approachisnotyetpartofthemainstreamofprivate
    sectordecision-making,mainlybecausepublicpolicy
    islaggingbehind,andbecausethereremainnancial
    obstaclestotheadoptionofgreenertechnologies.In
    contrast,someofthesegreenapproaches,whilewell-
    intentioned,canhavenegativeconsequencesforwater,
    asseenforexampleinChapter13.
    Henceitisimportantforgovernmentstosendthe
    rightsignalsandprovidetherightincentivestoprivate
    sectordecision-makersaboutthehierarchyoftrade-
    ofs,andparticularlyabouttheplaceofwaterinbusi-
    nessdecisions.Civilsociety,environmentalNGOsin
    particular,alsohasaroletoplay.Whereenvironmental
    NGOswereoncesometimesseenasaforceofoppo-
    sition,theirconstructiveparticipationincollaborative
    decision-makingtodayhelpsensurethatdiferentcon-
    cernsandinterestsareappropriatelyrepresentedin
    thespectrumofdecisionstakenbypublicandprivate
    operators.
    Anticipatingandproactivelyadaptingtochange
    presentuniqueopportunitiestobringintoefect
    benecialchangewithouttakingoverstatedrisks.
    Recognizingthatpastexperienceisnolongerthe
    bestwaytoanticipatethefuture(Chapter8),wecan
    howeveranticipateoutcomesbasedoncurrenttrends.
    AsseeninChapter9,analysisoftheevolutionofkey
    driversprovidesusefulinsightsintowhatmighthap-
    penifwedonothing,orwhatcouldhappenifcertain
    decisionsweremadetoday.Seeingtheworldinterms
    ofpossiblefuturescanhelpguideourcoursefromthe
    presentmoment.Approachestoclimatechangeadap-
    tationprovideuswithausefulmodelforno-regrets
    developmentplanning,inthatthemodeldemonstrates
    howwithinamoreorlessbroadwindowofuncer-
    tainty(orcertainty)decisionscanbemadethat
    achievemaximumbenetsregardlessofthesituation
    (Chapter13).Adaptivemanagementandno-regrets
    investmentbasedongrowthscenariosthatthemselves
    arebasedonimplicitassumptionsregardingnatural
    resources(chieywater).Failuretounderstandthe
    waywaterunderpinstodaysglobalandlocalecon-
    omywillsimplyleadtounrealisticpredictionsabout
    sustainablegrowth.Recognizingthefullvalueofwater
    anditsbenetsandensuringthesebenetsequitable
    distributionaswellasoperationalcontinuityinwater
    services,canhelpmitigatefutureeconomicrisksand
    uncertainties.
    Beyondthisrecognition,successfulwatermanagement
    willalsorequireincreasedinvestmentbynationalgov-
    ernmentsandtheinternationalcommunityifweareto
    achievenationalandinternationaldevelopmentgoals.
    Successfulmanagemententailsbothhardinvestment
    insolidandlastinginfrastructuretoprovidewaterser-
    vicesoverthelongtermthusreducingriskandsoft
    investmentincapacity,science,datacollectionand
    analysis,andinformationaboutwater,sothatuncer-
    taintiesarecontinuouslyreduced.Itwillalsorequire
    investmentinalternativeandinnovativeformsofwater
    serviceprovision,includingtherestorationofwaterser-
    vicesprovidedbyhealthyecosystems,whichhavethus
    farbeenlargelyignoredasentrypointsforwaterman-
    agement.AsseeninChapters5,8and11,combining
    hardandsoftapproacheshelpsensurehigherdegrees
    ofwateravailabilityandqualityinasustainablemanner.
    Theoptimizationandequitabledistributionofwaters
    benetscanonlyoccurifeconomicpolicy,industrial
    planning,urbandesign,food,energyandtradepoli-
    ciesbecomemorewaterconscious.Trade-ofsandco-
    benetscanbecomemorevisiblethankstoemerging
    planningtoolssuchasmodelling,riskmanagement,
    low-andno-regretsplanningtools(Chapter8).This
    helpsreduceuncertaintiesrelatedtowateraswellas
    economicuncertaintiesandrisks,andcancontribute
    tohigherratesofeconomicgrowth.Publicandpri-
    vatesectordecision-makerscantakeadvantageofa
    certaindegreeofpublicawarenessregardingenvi-
    ronmentalsustainabilitytomakedecisionsthatwould
    perhapshavebeenhardertomake20yearsago.This
    growingawarenessindicatesawillingnessonthepart
    ofthepublictoshoulderpartoftheshort-termriskto
    reducelonger-termuncertainties(socialrisktolerance,
    Chapter11).
    Asarisk-taker,theprivatesectorisoftentherootof
    technologicalinnovation.Inthisregard,thepushto
    achievenancialprotcanbecomeausefulimpetus
    CONCLUSIONS
    360
    roomforimprovementintermsofapplyingthissort
    ofvisioningexercisewhetherforwaterspecicallyor
    fordevelopmentingeneral.WhiletheMDGsexpress
    thissortofvision,bymissingtheopportunitytoex-
    plicitlyincorporatethecross-cuttingnatureofwaterin
    thedevelopmentnexus,theymayhavetakenanoverly
    fragmentedapproach.
    Thereisthereforeaneedtoreplacetheoldwaysof
    sector-baseddecision-makingwithawiderframework
    thatconsidersthemultiplefacetsofthedevelopment
    nexus,andthemultiplerisksanduncertainties,costs
    andbenetsoreverydecision,inlightofalong-term
    goal.Inthisregard,nationalgovernmentshaveama-
    jorcontributiontomakebycreatingstronger,more
    collaborative,exibleinstitutions,byadoptingappro-
    priatenancingmechanismstoensurethelong-term
    viabilityofwaterservicesandinfrastructure,andby
    ensuringthatwaterconsiderationsaremainstreamed
    intoeverydaypolicydecisionsaswellasinternational
    governanceprocesses.Watermanagershavearespon-
    sibilitytocontinuouslyinformtheseprocessesandto
    raiseawarenessofthecentralityofwaterinthedevel-
    opmentnexus.
    Thisiswhythemostrecenteconomiccrisiscouldbe
    seenasanopportunity;itprovidesanoccasionforre-
    ectingonadesiredcollectivefuture,anditprovides
    acriticalglimpseoftheinterconnectionsbetween
    countries,sectorsandpolicies.Similarly,lookingatthe
    futurethroughawaterlensalsoprovidestheinsight
    neededtomakedecisionsthatmaximizebenetsto
    people,theenvironmentandtheglobaleconomy.
    Thenancial,food,fuelandclimatecrisesare,even
    individually,seriousproblems,butincombinationtheir
    efectscouldbecatastrophicforglobalsustainability.
    TheWWDR4hassoughttoprovideanewwayoflook-
    ingatourwaterreality,throughtheperspectiveofrisk
    anduncertainty.Ithassoughttoencouragediferent
    waysofthinkingabouttheworldscollectivefutureby
    identifyingtoolsandapproachesthatmaximizewa-
    tersbenetstodiferentdevelopmentalsectorsand
    bydemonstratingthatwinwinscenariosareindeed
    possible.Politicalandbusinessleadersaswellaswa-
    termanagers,waterusersandordinarycitizenshavea
    uniqueopportunitytoseepastimmediatechallenges
    andrisksandtoefectlong-termchangetowardssus-
    tainableprosperityforall,throughwater.
    planningcanbeappliedtoallsectorsprovidedthat
    publicandprivateinstitutionsaregiventheexibility
    (andlegitimacy)forcoursecorrectionwhennewinfor-
    mationismadeavailabletothem.Asnotedearlierand
    inChapters5and11,anadaptiveapproachtoIWRM
    hasbecomeincreasinglyrelevanttowaterandnon-
    watermanagersalike.
    Paralleltothischangeinhowweplanforthefuture,
    wealsoneedtosignicantlyinvestinourknowledge
    andunderstandingofhowsystemswork.Climate
    predictions,modellingandscenariosshouldbecome
    essentialpartsofthepublicpolicytoolbox.Similar
    knowledgeshouldevolveaboutwatersystemsinand
    ofthemselves,forexamplegroundwater(Chapter3),
    ortheroleofecosystemsinmaintainingandregulat-
    ingwaterowsandtheirabilitytosustainablypro-
    videawiderangeofservices(Chapters4and8).This
    knowledgemustbecomeanintrinsicpartofeveryday
    decision-making,ratherthantheexclusivedomainof
    waterscientists,andmustbecommunicatedefective-
    lytoabroaderrangeofdirectandindirectwaterusers.
    Knowledgeandtechnologicalinnovationcanplaya
    signicantroleinreducingrisksanduncertaintiesre-
    latedtowater,andinmovingusfromawater-intensive
    toawater-efcientdevelopmentmodel.Asdescribed
    inChapter6,theabsenceofsystematicdatacollection
    inmostcountriesimpedesregularreportingonwater
    resourcesandwaterusesituationandtrends.There
    isconsequentlyagrowinginterestinanddemandfor
    betterwaterdataandaccounting,whichneedstobe
    translatedintoimproveddataavailability,morestruc-
    tureddataacquisition,andbetterinformationabout
    waterfromwhichdiferentuserscancalculateindi-
    catorsofspecicinteresttothem.
    Thedifcultyfacedtodayisinidentifyingthetrade-
    ofsmadeineverydaypolicy-makingandbusiness.
    Eachdecisionmadehaspotentiallyfarreachingcon-
    sequencesonwater;forexample,therecentdecision
    madebycertaingovernmentstomoveawayfrom
    nuclearenergycouldhaveimpactsonwateruseifit
    leadstowater-intensiveenergyproduction(forex-
    ample,oilsandsextraction).Hastilymadedecisions
    inreactiontocatastropheorperceivedpublicopinion
    couldleaveunwantedlegaciesiftheyarenotcon-
    sideredfromacross-sectoral,long-termperspective.
    Identifyingtheend-pointorthemostpreferredout-
    come(orfuture)expressingavisionofadesiredfu-
    turecanhelpinidentifyingtheacceptabletrade-ofs
    intheshort,mediumandlongterms.Yetthereismuch
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 361 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA
    BOXES, TABLES, FIGURES AND MAPS
    BOXES
    1.1 WaterforAllProgramme,Peru 29
    1.2 Climatechangeadaptation:Thepivotalroleofwater 31
    1.3 UN-WatersrecommendationtoUNCSDandpotentialactionsinsupportofgreeneconomicapproaches 39
    2.1 Complexitiesincomparingwateruseandconsumptionforhydropowerproductionwiththatforothertypesofenergy 55
    2.2 Waterandecosystemservices 70
    2.3 Biodiversityincreasesecosystemefciency 70
    2.4 Rethinkingecosystemwaterdemandusinganecosystemservicesframework:
    DisasterrisktransferandmitigationintheMississippiDelta,USA 72
    2.5 TheMekongRiverBasin,South-EastAsia 72
    4.1 Cholera 104
    4.2 Harmfulalgalblooms 106
    4.3 Dengue 106
    4.4 Havethegloballimitsofwatersustainabilityalreadybeenreached? 113
    4.5 Ecosystemtippingpoints:theoryorreality? 113
    4.6 TrendsinwetlandsinChina:Reversinglossestorestorebenets 114
    4.7 Womenintimesofdisaster 119
    4.8 Keyfactsondesertication 121
    5.1 AdaptationtowaterstressintheGreaterHimalayanRegion 145
    5.2 DevelopmentofregulatoryaccountinginLatinAmerica 146
    5.3 Waterconictasanagentofchange 147
    5.4 EnhancingadaptivecapacityintheMekongBasin 149
    5.5 Politicalleadershipasadriverforbetterwatermanagementoutcomes 149
    5.6 Forumforintegratedresourcemanagement(FIRM):AnexamplefromruralNamibia 150
    5.7 SociallearningandadaptivewaterresourcesmanagementintheSouthIndianLowerBhavani 152
    6.1 Informingtrade-ofs:WaterforelectricityinSouthAfrica 163
    6.2 Australianwateraccountingstandards 164
    6.3 WaterresourceinformationforconictpreventioninCentralAsia 167
    6.4 Dataasagatewaytoprogressforsustainablewatermanagement 170
    6.5 WWAPsdynamicTARWRpilotinitiativewithCUNYandGWSP 171
    7.1 AfricasWSSinvestmentneeds 181
    7.2 Africasirrigationinvestmentneeds 182
    7.3 GroundwaterresourcesintheLakeChadbasin 183
    7.4 JointmanagementoftheSenegalRiver 184
    7.5 AgricultureandwateruseinCentralAsia 188
    7.6 WastewatertreatmentinfrastructureintheRepublicofMoldova 188
    7.7 UncertaintyandriskontheNorthAmericanprairies 190
    7.8 Satisfyingmunicipalwaterneedsindrought-proneregions 190
    7.9 WatermanagementinBarbados 202
    7.10 CompetitionforwaterintheCopiapoValley 203
    7.11 InvestmentinsanitaryinfrastructureinChile 205
    7.12 TheGuaraniAquiferSystem(GAS)project:Managingtransboundarygroundwaters 207
    7.13 WaterconictsinYemen 210
    7.14 Waterdimensionsofthesurgeintransnationallandacquisitions 217
    361 WWDR4 BOXES,TABLES,FIGURESANDMAPS
    CHAPTER30 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 362 362
    8.1 DutchDeltaApproach 239
    8.2 Queensland,Australia,warnedofoodplainrisks 241
    8.3 USCorpsofEngineeringriskanalysis 242
    8.4 AdaptivestrategiesforrespondingtodroughtandoodinSouthAsia 243
    8.5 Changingparadigmsforwatermanagement 250
    8.6 Rethinkingphysicalinfrastructureapproaches 251
    8.7 Ecosystemsolutionsforwaterqualityrisks 251
    8.8 Ecosystemsandoodriskreduction 252
    8.9 LessonslearnedintheimplementationandoperationoftheWaterProtectionFund(FONAG,Ecuador) 253
    8.10Rethinkingwaterstorage:Restoringsoilfunctionality 253
    11.1 MineclosureinSouthAfricaasanexampleofgrowingcomplexity 294
    11.2 ClimateVulnerabilityIndex 295
    11.3 WaterqualitymonitoringinNigeria 299
    11.4 Reviewofwatermanagementinstitutionsandreformsin11countries 301
    11.5 Gender-sensitivedisseminationofinformation:ThecaseofearlywarningsystemsinBangladesh 304
    12.1 Economicsofaccesstoimproveddrinkingwaterandsanitation 312
    12.2 Costofadaptationtoclimatechangeforwater 313
    12.3 Implicationsofclimatechangeuncertaintyfordecision-making 316
    12.4 Increasingaidtowaterandsanitation:2002-2008 319
    13.1 IntegratedWaterResourcesOptimizationModels(IWROMs) 328
    13.2 Adaptivemanagement:AdaptationtippingpointsincurrentDutchoodmanagement 330
    13.3 Risk-addressedexamples 331
    13.4 Catastrophemodellingasatoolforunderstandingandcalculatingriskintheinsuranceindustry 332
    13.5 FarmermanagedgroundwatersystemsinAndhraPradesh,India 333
    13.6 MangroverestorationinVietNam 335
    13.7 ConstructedwetlandsforwastewatertreatmentinBayawanCity,Philippines 336
    13.8 Community-basedwatershedmanagementinIndiaandBrazil 337
    13.9 Ensuringreliableaccesstowaterforindustrialpurposeswhileprovidingakeypollutioncontrolservice 340
    14.1 Cubausesorganicagricultureforsustainablegrowth 345
    14.2 ReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradation(REDD)withwaterco-benets 346
    14.3 Restoringwaterprovisioninadryarea:Italcementi 347
    14.4 Implicitvaluationreducesbusinessandwaterrisks 348
    14.5 Businessdecisiontopromotereputationaladvantageleadstowaterbenets 349
    14.6 AutoviassWaterwayProgramdecreasedtheneedforroadmaintenancewhilehelpingtorecharge
    oneofBrazilsmostimportantaquifers 350
    14.7 Crowd-sourcedhealthinformationreducesrisksanduncertaintiesforwater 351
    14.8 Landscapeanalysishelpsreduceuncertaintieswithinurbanplanningrequirements:ThecaseofOregon 352
    14.9 TheCaribbeanCatastropheRiskInsuranceFacility(CCRIF) 353
    14.10Creatingcooperativesecurity-basedinstitutionsaroundwaterinCentralAsia 354
    TABLES
    2.1 Population,energyconsumptionandwaterconsumptionforenergy,20052050 57
    2.2 Population,energyconsumptionandwaterconsumptionforenergy,20052050,withimprovedenergyefciency 57
    2.3 AverageUSguresforwaterproduction 58
    3.1 Top10groundwater-abstractingcountriesasof2010 85
    3.2 Keyestimatesonglobalgroundwaterabstraction(referenceyear2010) 86
    3.3 Keywaterqualityrisks 96
    3.4 Summaryofpossiblewaterqualityinterventionsbyscale 97
    6.1 UnitedNationsWorld Water Development Report indicators 160
    7.1 TotalandproportionalrenewablewaterresourcesinAfricassubregions 178
    7.2 Mainpressuresonwaterresourcesinorderofpriority 189
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 363 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA 363 BOXES,TABLES,FIGURESANDMAPS WWDR4
    10.1 Economicratesofreturnforinfrastructureprojectsinsub-SaharanAfrica 281
    10.2 EconomicvalueofwateruseintheUSA 283
    FIGURES
    1.1 Globalwatersavingsassociatedwithinternationaltradeinagriculturalproducts(19962005) 33
    2.1 Waterwithdrawalbysectorbyregion(2005) 47
    2.2 Wetlandswaterqualitystatechangesbycontinent 48
    2.3 Worldmarketedenergyconsumption,20072035 52
    2.4 Historicalworldfuelproductionfrom1990to2007withprojectionsto2035 53
    2.5 Projectionsforworldnetelectricitygeneration,20072035 53
    2.6 Operationalwaterconsumptionfortheproductionofvarioustypesofenergy 56
    2.7 Inter-relationshipofwaterrisksamongbusiness,governmentandsociety 62
    2.8 Slumpopulationbyregion,19902020 65
    2.9 Ratiooftreatedtountreatedwastewaterdischargedintowaterbodies 67
    2.10 Asimpliedconceptualframeworkillustratingtheroleofecosystemsinthewatercycle 71
    3.1 Totalannualrenewablewaterresources(TARWR)bycountrymostrecentestimates(19852010) 79
    3.2 Percapitatotalannualrenewablewaterresources(TARWR)bycountrypopulationdatafrom2008 80
    3.3 SchematicofnormalandElNioconditionsinthetropicalPacicOcean 81
    3.4 ImpactsofElNioonglobalclimateduringnorthernhemispheresummerandwinterseasons 82
    3.5 SpatialpatternandtimeindexofPDOandElNio 83
    3.6 NAOspatialpatternanditsimpactonthemid-latitudejetstreamanditsimpactsonclimateover
    NorthAmericaandWesternEurope 84
    3.7 Intensityofgroundwaterabstractionbytheyear2000,asallocatedbythePCR-GLOBWBmodel 85
    3.8 Groundwaterabstractiontrendsinselectedcountries 87
    3.9 StreamandwellhydrographsfromtheNorthChinaPlain,showingevidenceofreducedstreamow
    causedbygroundwaterdepletion 88
    3.10 Globaldistributionofglaciersandicesheets 90
    3.11 DelineationofthebasinsoftheBrahmaputra,GangesandIndus 91
    3.12 GRACEsatelliteimageshowingtheextentofglaciercoverintheHimalayaKarakoramandestimationof
    groundwaterdepletioninnorth-westIndia 91
    3.13 DangerousglacierdammedlakeswithinBhutan 92
    3.14 LuggeTshoGlaciallake,Bhutan 92
    3.15 IndusRiver:Glacierdamsandrelatedevents 93
    3.16 Annualcostoftheenvironmentaldegradationofwater 95
    4.1 Nutrientloadingininlandandcoastalwaters 111
    4.2 NitrogenbalanceinEurope 112
    4.3 Since1997,theproportionofriverbasinsinMalaysiaclassiedascleanhasbeenincreasing 114
    4.4 ClimatevariabilityhasanimpactonGDP 115
    4.5 Peopleexposedtooods 116
    4.6 Hazardmortalityrisk(oods,tropicalcyclonesandprecipitation-triggeredlandslides) 117
    4.7 Theextentofdrylandsystemsworldwide(2000) 120
    4.8 Freshwateravailability(m
    3
    perpersonperyear,2007) 124
    4.9 GlobalWaterStressIndicator(WSI)inmajorbasins 125
    4.10 Globalphysicalandeconomicwaterscarcity 125
    5.1 Keyconstraintstodoingbusinessinseveralgeographicandeconomicregions 143
    6.1 DashboardofdataavailabilityinSADCcountries 166
    7.1 Useofimproveddrinkingwatersources(2008) 179
    7.2 NumberofpeopleafectedbyselectedextremeweathereventsintheUNECEregion,19702008 191
    7.3 Asia-Pacicwaterhotspots 195
    7.4 Increaseinurbanpopulationsbetween1970and2010 200
    7.5 Frequencyofhydrometeorologicalevents,19702007 204
    CHAPTER30 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 364 364
    7.6 DomesticwaterconsumptionrelativetoGDPpercapitaintheUNESCWAregion 209
    7.7 DeclineinrenewablewaterresourcesintheArabregionpercapita 211
    8.1 Backcastingversusforecastingscenarios 245
    9.1 Keydriversandcausallinksafectingwaterstressandsustainabilityandhumanwell-being 267
    10.1 Benetsfromthewatercycle 279
    10.2 Partiesinthewaterdialoguespace 285
    10.3 Valueperspectivesinthewaterdialoguespace 286
    11.1 Conceptualmodelillustratingthegeneraltrendofchangeaswaterresourcemanagersadapttoinclude
    awiderrangeofdriversandissues 292
    11.2 Monitoringandassessmentcycle 297
    11.3 TheTrialogueModelwithstructuredinterfacesbetweenthethreemainactorclustersofgovernment,
    societyandscienceisconducivetoadaptiveIWRM 298
    MAPS
    7.1 UNECAMemberStates 176
    7.2 UNECEMemberStates 186
    7.3 UNESCAPMemberStates 193
    7.4 UNECLACMemberStates 199
    7.5 UNESCWAMemberStates 208
    MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK
    WWDR4 365 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA
    ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
    AASB AuditingandAssuranceStandardsBoard
    (Australia)
    AC AlbufeiraConvention(Portugal)
    ACCA AssociationofCharteredCertied
    Accountants(UK)
    ACCRA AfricanClimateChangeResilienceAlliance
    ACMAD AfricanCentreforMeteorologicalApplications
    forDevelopment
    ACWUA ArabCountriesWaterUtilitiesAssociation
    ADB TheAsianDevelopmentBank
    ADPC AsianDisasterPreparednessCentre
    ADSS advanceddecisionsupportsystem
    AfDB TheAfricanDevelopmentBank
    AFED ArabForumforEnvironmentand
    Development
    AI AridityIndex
    AICD AfricaInfrastructureCountryDiagnostic
    AMCOW AfricanMinistersCouncilonWater
    AMO AtlanticMultidecadalOscillation
    AMOC AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation
    AMWC ArabMinisterialWaterCouncil
    ANA NationalWaterAgency(Brazil)
    AO ArcticOscillation
    APFAMGS AndhraPradeshFarmersGroundWater
    ManagementSystem
    APWF Asia-PacicWaterForum
    ARH AdministraodaRegioHidrogrca
    (Portugal)
    ARPA RegionalAgencyforEnvironmentalProtection
    (Italy)
    ASCE AmericanSocietyofCivilEngineers
    ASEAN AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations
    ATP adaptationtippingpoint
    AWB areawaterboard
    AWC ArabWaterCouncil
    AWDR AfricanWaterDevelopmentReport
    AWF AfricanWaterFacility
    AWICH AfricanWaterInformationClearingHouse
    AWM adaptivewatermanagement
    AWM agriculturalwatermanagement
    AWTF AfricaWaterTaskForce
    BAT bestavailabletechnique
    BAU businessasusual
    BEP bestenvironmentalpractice
    BGR FederalInstituteforGeosciencesandNatural
    Resources(Germany)
    BIRDS BharatiIntegratedRuralDevelopmentSociety
    BMAP basinmanagementactionplan
    BMWS barley,maize,wheatandsoybean
    BOD biological(orbiochemical)oxygendemand
    BOT build-operate-transfer
    BRIC(S) countries:Brazil,RussianFederation,India,
    China(SouthAfrica)
    BSE bovinespongiformencephalopathy
    BSR businessforsocialresponsibility
    CAD CentralApenninesDistrict
    CADA CentralApenninesDistrictAuthority
    CADC CommissionfortheApplicationand
    DevelopmentoftheConvention(Portugal)
    CAMRE CouncilofArabMinistersResponsibleforthe
    Environment
    CAP CommonAgriculturalPolicy(EU)
    CATIE CentroAgronmicoTropicaldeInvestigacin
    yEnseanza(CostaRica)
    CBD ConventiononBiologicalDiversity
    CBO community-basedorganization
    CBRN chemical,biological,radiologicalandnuclear
    CBSR CanadianBusinessforSocialResponsibility
    CCAI InternationalClimateChangeAdaptation
    Initiative
    CCRIF CaribbeanCatastropheRiskInsuranceFacility
    CD capacitydevelopment
    CDA ChilikaDevelopmentAuthority(India)
    CEC CaliforniaEnergyCommission
    CEC CommissionforEnvironmentalCooperationof
    NorthAmerica
    CEDARE CenterforEnvironmentandDevelopmentfor
    theArabRegionandEurope
    CEDAW ConventionontheEliminationofAllFormsof
    DiscriminationagainstWomen(UN)
    CEH CentreforEcologyandHydrology(UK)
    CELADE LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
    DemographicCentre
    CEPMLP CentreforEnergy,PetroleumandMineralLaw
    andPolicy(TheUniversityofDundee)
    CHRAJ CommissionforHumanRightsand
    AdministrativeJustice(Ghana)
    CIDA CanadianInternationalDevelopmentAgency
    CIF climateinvestmentfund
    CIFOR CenterforInternationalForestryResearch
    CILSS CommitteeforDroughtControlintheSahel
    CIS CommonImplementationStrategy(EU)
    CLIMPAG climateimpactonagriculture
    CNE ComisinNacionaldePrevencindeRiesgos
    yAtencindeEmergencias(Mexico)
    COD chemicaloxygendemand
    CONAGUA NationalWaterCommission(Mexico)
    CoP community-of-practice
    COP ConferenceoftheParties
    CPA cleanerproductionassessment
    CPWC Co-operativeProgrammeonWaterand
    Climate(UNESCO-IHE)
    CRED CentreforResearchontheEpidemiologyof
    Disasters,CatholicUniversityofLouvain
    CRM climateriskmanagement
    CSDRM climatesmartdisasterriskmanagement
    CSE CentreforScienceandEnvironment(New
    Delhi)
    CSEC SupremeCouncilforWaterandClimate
    (Morocco)
    CSIRO CommonwealthScienticandIndustrial
    ResearchOrganisation(Australia)
    CSR corporatesocialresponsibility
    CVI ClimateVariabilityIndex
    CWA CleanWaterAct(USA)
    365 WWDR4 ABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYMS
    366
    CWPP CongoCross-BorderWaterPipelineProject
    CWSA CommunityWaterandSanitationAgency
    (Ghana)
    DAC DevelopmentAssistanceCommittee(OECD)
    DBOT design-build-operate-transfer
    DEWATS decentralizedwastewatertreatmentsystems
    DFE designforenvironment
    DFID DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment
    (UK)
    DLDD desertication,landdegradationanddrought
    DO dissolvedoxygen
    DOE USDepartmentofEnergy
    DPSEEA driver,pressure,state,exposure,efectandac-
    tionmodel(WHO)
    DRI DisasterRiskIndex
    DRM disasterriskmanagement
    DRR disasterriskreduction
    DWA DepartmentofWaterAfairs(SouthAfrica)
    DWAF DepartmentofWaterAfairsandForestry
    (SouthAfrica)
    EAWAG SwissFederalInstituteforAquaticScience
    andTechnology
    EC EuropeanCommission
    EC-IFAS ExecutiveCommitteeoftheInternational
    FundforsavingtheAralSea
    ECOWAS EconomicCommunityOfWestAfricanStates
    EDC endocrinedisruptivecompound
    EEA EuropeanEnvironmentAgency
    EHP EnvironmentalHealthProject
    EIA USEnergyInformationAdministration
    EMA environmentalmanagementaccounting
    EMCA EnvironmentManagementandCoordination
    Act(Kenya)
    EMS environmentalmanagementsystem
    ENERGIA InternationalNetworkonGenderand
    SustainableEnergy
    ENSO ElNio-SouthernOscillation
    EPA USEnvironmentalProtectionAgency
    EPRI ElectricPowerResearchInstitute(USA)
    EU EuropeanUnion
    EUWI EuropeanWaterInitiative
    EWP EcosystemWorkforceProgram(Universityof
    Oregon)
    EWRA EgyptianWaterRegulatoryAgency
    FAO FoodandAgricultureOrganizationofthe
    UnitedNations
    FIRM ForumforIntegratedResourceManagement
    FMMP FloodMitigationandManagement
    Programme(oftheMekongRiver)
    FO farmerorganization
    FONAFIFO FondoNacionaldeFinanciamientoForestal
    (Mexico)
    FONAG WaterProtectionFund(Ecuador)
    FWRA FloridaWaterResourcesAct
    GAR GlobalAssessmentReport
    GAR groundwaterrecharge
    GAS GuaranAquiferSystem
    GCC GulfCooperationCouncil
    GCF GreenClimateFund(UNFCCC)
    GCM generalcirculationmodel
    GDP GrossDomesticProduct
    GEF GlobalEnvironmentFacility
    GEMS GlobalEnvironmentMonitoringSystem
    GEO GlobalEnvironmentOutlook
    GHG greenhousegas
    GIF globalimpactfactor
    GLAAS GlobalAnalysisandAssessmentofSanitation
    andDrinking-Water(WHO/UN-Water)
    GLIMS GlobalLandIceMeasurementsfromSpace
    GLOF glaciallakeoutburstood
    GLOWS GlobalWaterforSustainabilityProgram
    GPOBA GlobalPartnershiponOutput-BasedAid
    GPWAR GeneralPurposeWaterAccountingReport
    GRACE GravityRecoveryandClimateExperiment
    GTN-H GlobalTerrestrialNetworkforHydrology
    GVEP GlobalVillageEnergyPartnership
    International
    GWC greenwatercredit
    GWCL GhanaWaterCompanyLimited
    GWD GroundwaterDirective(EU)
    GWI GlobalWaterIntelligence
    GWP GlobalWaterPartnership(CACENA,Caucasus
    andCentralAsia;SEA,SoutheastAsia)
    GWSP GlobalWaterSystemsProject
    HAB harmfulalgalbloom
    HDI HumanDevelopmentIndex
    HEPP hydroelectricpowerplant
    HIA HealthImpactAssessment
    HKJ TheHashemiteKingdomofJordan
    HRC HumanRightsCouncil(UN)
    HRHR highrisk-highreward
    HVBWSHE HumanValues-BasedapproachtoWater,
    SanitationandHygienepromotion
    IAHS InternationalAssociationofHydrological
    Sciences
    IBNET InternationalBenchmarkingNetworkfor
    WaterandSanitationUtilities
    IBRD InternationalBankforReconstructionand
    Development
    IBWT Inter-BasinWaterTransferProject
    ICA InfrastructureConsortiumforAfrica
    ICCPR InternationalCovenantonCivilandPolitical
    Rights
    ICE InstitutoCostarricensedeElectricidad
    (Mexico)
    ICID InternationalCommissiononIrrigationand
    Drainage
    ICIMOD InternationalCentreforIntegratedMountain
    Development
    ICLEI InternationalCouncilforLocalEnvironmental
    Initiatives
    ICOLD InternationalCommissiononLargeDams
    ICPAC ClimatePredictionandApplicationsCentre
    (IGAD,Africa)
    ICPDR InternationalCommissionfortheProtectionof
    theDanubeRiver
    ICRAF WorldAgroforestryCentre
    ICRISAT InternationalCropsResearchInstituteforthe
    Semi-AridTropics
    ICS informationandcommunicationsystems
    ICT informationcommunicationtechnology
    IDB TheInter-AmericanDevelopmentBank
    IDRC InternationalDevelopmentResearchCentre
    IDS InstituteofDevelopmentStudies(UK)
    IEA InternationalEnergyAgency
    IEG IndependentEvaluationGroup(WorldBank)
    IFAD InternationalFundforAgricultural
    Development
    IFAS InternationalFundforSavingtheAralSea
    IFI internationalnancinginstitution
    366
    367 WWDR4 ABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYMS
    IFPRI InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute
    IFRC InternationalFederationofRedCrossandRed
    CrescentSocieties
    IGAD Inter-GovernmentalAuthorityon
    Development
    IGRAC InternationalGroundwaterResources
    AssessmentCentre
    IGWA InteragencyGrouponWater
    IHA InternationalHydropowerAssociation
    IIA internationalinvestmentagreement
    IIED InternationalInstituteforEnvironmentand
    Development
    IIRR InternationalInstituteofRuralReconstruction
    IISD InternationalInstituteforSustainable
    Development
    ILC InternationalLandCoalition
    ILEC InternationalLakeEnvironmentCommittee
    ILWRM integratedlandandwaterresources
    management
    IMR UN-WaterTaskForceonIndicators,
    MonitoringandReporting
    IPCC IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange
    IRB IndusRiverbasin
    IRI InternationalResearchInstituteforClimate
    andSociety
    IRS indoorresidualspraying
    IRTCES InternationalResearchandTrainingCenteron
    ErosionandSedimentation
    IRWS InternationalRecommendationsforWater
    Statistics
    ISARM InternationallySharedAquiferResources
    Management
    ISET InstituteforSocialandEnvironmental
    Transition
    ISNAR InternationalServiceforNationalAgricultural
    Research
    ISO InternationalOrganizationforStandardization
    ISPRA ItalianNationalInstituteforEnvironmental
    ProtectionandResearch
    ISRIC WorldSoilInformation
    ISWM integratedstormwatermanagement
    ITCZ IntertropicalConvergenceZone
    IUCN InternationalUnionforConservationofNature
    IUWM integratedurbanwatermanagement
    IWA InternationalWaterAssociation
    IWLP InternationalWaterLawProject
    IWM integratedwatermanagement
    IWMI InternationalWaterManagementInstitute
    IWRM integratedwaterresourcesmanagement
    IWROM integratedwaterresourcesoptimization
    model
    JISAO JointInstitutefortheStudyofthe
    AtmosphereandOcean
    JMP JointMonitoringProgrammeforWaterSupply
    andSanitation(WHO/UNICEF)
    JRV TheJordanRiftValley
    KDP WorldBank-supportedKecamatan
    DevelopmentProject
    LAC LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
    LAS LeagueofArabStates
    LBP LowerBhavaniProject
    LCB LermaChapalaRiverbasin
    LCBC LakeChadBasinCommission
    LCRBC LermaChapalaRiverBasinCouncil
    LDC leastdevelopedcountry
    LHWP LesothoHighlandsWaterProject
    LLDC land-lockeddevelopingcountry
    LLIN longlastinginsecticide-treatedmosquitonet
    LME largemarineecosystem
    LNMC LibyanNationalMeteorologicalCentre
    LPI LivingPlanetIndex
    LVBWO LakeVictoriaBasinWaterOfce
    LVWATSANI LakeVictoriaRegionWaterandSanitation
    Initiative
    MA MillenniumEcosystemAssessment
    MAP MediterraneanActionPlan(UNEP)
    MAR managedaquiferrecharge
    MAWF MinistryofAgriculture,WaterandForestry
    MCED MinisterialConferenceonEnvironmentand
    DevelopmentoftheAsia-Pacic
    MDB MurrayDarlingbasin
    MDBA MurrayDarlingBasinAuthority
    MDG MillenniumDevelopmentGoal
    MDWPP Multi-donorWaterPartnershipProgramme
    MEA MillenniumEcosystemAssessment
    MEA multilateralenvironmentalagreement
    MEDAWARE EuropeanCommissionEuro-Mediterranean
    Partnership
    MIGA MultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgency
    (WorldBank)
    MINAET MinistryofEnvironment,Energyand
    Telecommunications(Mexico)
    MPM MarseilleProvenceMtropoleUrban
    Community
    MRB MaraRiverbasin
    MRC MekongRiverCommissionforSustainable
    Development
    MRI MortalityRiskIndex
    MTWM MinistryofTransportandWaterManagement
    (Netherlands)
    MWI MinistryofWaterandIrrigation(Kenya)
    MWP MondiWetlandsProgramme(SouthAfrica)
    MWRWH MinistryofWaterResources,Worksand
    Housing(Ghana)
    NADMO NationalDisasterManagementOrganization
    (Ghana)
    NAFTA NorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreement
    NAO NorthAtlanticOscillation
    NAPA NationalAdaptationPlan(orProgramme)of
    Action
    NAS NationalAcademyofSciences
    NCAR NationalCentreforAtmosphericResearch
    (USA)
    NCASI NationalCouncilforAirandStream
    Improvement(USA)
    NCMH NationalCommissiononMacroeconomicsand
    Health(India)
    NDMA NationalDisasterManagementAuthority
    (China)
    NDMP NationalDisasterManagementPlan(Ghana)
    NEPAD NewPartnershipforAfricasDevelopment
    NETL NationalEnergyTechnologyLaboratory
    NFUS NationalFarmersUnion(Scotland)
    NGO non-governmentalorganization
    NMHS nationalmeteorologicalandhydrological
    service
    NOAA NationalOceanicandAtmospheric
    Administration(USA)
    NRC NationalResearchCouncil(USA)
    NRW non-revenuewater
    367
    368
    NWC NationalWaterCommission(Australia)
    NWC NationalWaterCouncil(Portugal)
    NWI NationalWaterInitiative(Australia)
    NWL nationalwaterlaw
    NWM IndianNationalWaterMission
    NWP NairobiWorkProgramme
    NWP NationalWaterPolicy(Mexico)
    NWS NationalWaterStrategy(Jordan)
    NWSC NationalWaterandSewerageCorporation
    (Uganda)
    OAU OrganisationofAfricanUnity(nowtheAfrican
    Union)
    OBA output-basedaid
    ODA ofcialdevelopmentassistance(oraid)
    OECD OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationand
    Development
    OKACOM OkavangoRiverBasinTrans-boundary
    ManagementCommission
    OLADE LatinAmericanEnergyOrganization
    OMVS OrganizationfortheDevelopmentofthe
    SenegalRiver
    ONE OfceNationaldelElectricit(Morocco)
    ONEP OfceNationaldelEauPotable(Morocco)
    OSCE OrganizationforSecurityinCentralEurope
    OSU OregonStateUniversity
    OTA OptimalTerritorialArea(Italy)
    PAHO PanAmericanHealthOrganization
    PCaC ProgramaCampesinoaCampesino
    (Nicaragua)
    PCB polychlorinatedbiphenyl
    PDO PacicDecadalOscillation
    PEDDR PartnershipforEnvironmentandDisasterRisk
    Reduction
    PER publicexpenditurereview
    PES paymentforecosystemservices
    PGDAC PianodiGestionedelDistrettodellAppennino
    Centrale(Italy)
    PID ProvincialIrrigationDepartment(China)
    PIDA ProvincialIrrigationandDrainageAuthority
    (China)
    PMEL PacicMarineEnvironmentalLaboratory
    (NOAA,USA)
    PNA PacicNorthAmericanPattern
    PNRC LePlanNationaldeluttecontrele
    RchaufementClimatique(Morocco)
    POP persistentorganicpollutant
    PoU point-of-use
    PPCPs pharmaceuticalsandpersonalcareproducts
    PPCR PilotProgramforClimateResilience
    PPI PrivateParticipationinInfrastructuredata-
    base(WorldBank)
    PPP public-privatepartnership
    PPWSA PhnomPenhWaterSupplyAuthority
    PRB PopulationReferenceBureau
    PRESA Pro-poorRewardsforEnvironmentalServices
    inAfrica
    PRTA RegionalPlanforWaterProtection(Italy)
    PSI PilotStudyonIndicators(WWAP)
    PUB predictionofungaugedbasins
    PURC PublicUtilitiesRegulatoryCommission
    (Ghana)
    PV solarphotovoltaic
    PWTOA PrivateWaterTankerOwnersAssociation
    (Ghana)
    R&D researchanddevelopment
    RAED ArabNetworkforEnvironmentand
    Development
    RBB riverbasinboard
    RBC riverbasincouncil
    RBDA riverbasindevelopmentauthority(Nigeria)
    RBDC riverbasindistrictcouncil
    RBF results-basednancing
    REDD ReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationand
    ForestDegradationinitiative(UNFCCC)
    RMC regionalmembercountry
    RRC RiverRestorationCentre(UK)
    RWSSI RuralWaterSupplyandSanitationInitiative
    (AfDB)
    SAARC ComprehensiveFrameworkonDisaster
    Management(India)
    SABEP CompanhiadeSaneamentoBsicodoEstado
    deSoPaulo
    SACI SouthAfricanCapacityInitiative
    SADC SouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity
    SADC-DMC SADCDroughtMonitoringCentre
    SAFE surgery,antibiotics,facialcleanlinessand
    environmentalimprovement
    SALDRU SouthernAfricaLabourandDevelopment
    ResearchUnit
    SAP strategicactionplan
    SAPP SouthAfricanPowerPool
    SARPN SouthAfricanRegionalPovertyNetwork
    SAWAF SouthAsiaWaterForum
    SAWUN WaterUtilityNetwork(SouthAsia)
    SBSTA SubsidiaryBodyforScienticand
    TechnologicalAdvice(UNFCCC)
    SDWA SafeDrinkingWaterAct(USA)
    SEE South-EasternEurope
    SEEAW UNSystemofEnvironmental-Economic
    AccountingforWater
    SEI StockholmEnvironmentalInstitute
    SEM SocitdesEauxdeMarseille
    SENARA ServicioNacionaldeAguasSubterrneas,
    RiegoyAvenamiento(Mexico)
    SEPA ScottishEnvironmentProtectionAgency
    SES socio-ecologicalsystem
    SEWA SelfEmployedWomensAssociation(Gujarat,
    India)
    SIDS smallislanddevelopingstates
    SISS SuperintendenciadeServiciosSanitarios
    (Chile)
    SIWI StockholmInternationalWaterInstitute
    SIWW SingaporeInternationalWaterWeek
    SJRB StJohnsRiverbasin
    SJR-WMD StJohnsRiverWaterManagementDistrict
    SLM sustainablelandmanagement
    SME smallandmediumenterprises
    SOC soilorganiccarbon
    SOM soilorganicmatter
    SOPAC PacicIslandsAppliedGeoscience
    Commission
    SPI StandardizedPrecipitationIndex
    SST seasurfacetemperature
    SSWM sustainablesanitationandwatermanagement
    SWA SanitationandWaterforAllglobalinitiative
    SWAP sector-wideapproachtoplanning
    SWAR surfacewaterrunof
    SWE sectoralwaterefciency
    SWOT strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats
    368
    369 WWDR4
    TAC TechnicalAdvisoryCommitteeoftheGlobal
    WaterPartnership
    TAO TropicalAtmosphereOceanproject
    TARWR totalannualrenewablewaterresources
    TDS totaldissolvedsolids
    TEEB TheEconomicsofEcosystemsand
    Biodiversity
    TEST transferofenvironmentallysoundtechnology
    TMDL totalmaximumdailyload
    TNC TheNatureConservancy
    TRB TiberRiverbasin
    TRB TagusRiverBasin
    TRBA TiberRiverBasinAuthority
    TSG TechknowledgyStrategicGroup(USA)
    TWB-MRB TransboundaryWaterforBiodiversityand
    HumanHealthintheMaraRiverbasin
    UFW unaccountedforwater
    UNECOSOC UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCouncil
    UN UnitedNations
    UN-HABITAT UnitedNationsHumanSettlements
    Programme
    UNAG NationalUnionofFarmersandRanchers
    (Nicaragua)
    UNCCD UnitedNationsConventiontoCombat
    Desertication
    UNCSD UnitedNationsConferenceonSustainable
    Development
    UNCTAD UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeand
    Development
    UNDESA UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicand
    SocialAfairs
    UNDP UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme
    UNDRO UnitedNationsDisasterReliefOrganization
    UNECA UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionfor
    Africa
    UNECE UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionfor
    Europe
    UNECLAC UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionfor
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
    UNEP UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme
    UNEP/GEMS GlobalEnvironmentMonitoringSystem
    (UNEP)
    UNESCAP UnitedNationsEconomicandSocial
    CommissionforAsiaandthePacic
    UNESCO UnitedNationsEducational,Scienticand
    CulturalOrganization
    UNESCO-IHE InstituteforWaterEducation
    UNESCO-IHP InternationalHydrologicalProgramme
    UNESCWA UnitedNationsEconomicandSocial
    CommissionforWesternAsia
    UNFCCC UnitedNationsFrameworkConventionon
    ClimateChange
    UNICEF UnitedNationsChildrensFund
    UNIDO UnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopment
    Organization
    UNISDR UnitedNationsInternationalStrategyfor
    DisasterReductionSecretariat
    UNOCHA UnitedNationsOfcefortheCoordinationof
    HumanitarianAfairs
    UNSD UnitedNationsStatisticsDivision
    UNSGAB UnitedNationsSecretaryGeneralsAdvisory
    BoardonWaterandSanitation
    UNU UnitedNationsUniversity
    UNU-WIDER UnitedNationsUniversityWorldInstitutefor
    DevelopmentEconomicsResearch
    UNWAIS+ UN-WaterActivityInformationSystem
    UNW-DPAC UN-WaterDecadeProgrammeonAdvocacy
    andCommunication
    UNW-DPC UN-WaterDecadeProgrammeonCapacity
    Development
    UPA urbanandperi-urbanagriculture
    USACE UnitedStatesArmyCorpsofEngineers
    USAID UnitedStatesAgencyforInternational
    Development
    USBR UnitedStatesBureauofReclamation
    USDA UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture
    USDOE UnitedStatesDepartmentofEnergy
    USEPA NationalServiceCenterforEnvironmental
    Publications(USA)
    USEPA UnitedStatesEnvironmentalProtection
    Agency
    VBD vector-bornediseases
    WACF WaterAccountingConceptualFramework
    WAJ WaterAuthorityofJordan
    WAPDA WaterandPowerDevelopmentAuthority
    (China)
    WAPP WestAfricanPowerPool
    WASH water,sanitationandhygiene
    WaterSHED Water,Sanitation,andHygieneEnterprise
    Development
    WBCSD WorldBusinessCouncilonSustainable
    Development
    WCD WorldCommissiononDams
    WDM waterdemandmanagement
    WEC WorldEnergyCouncil
    WEF WaterEnvironmentFederation
    WEF WorldEconomicForum
    WESSA WildlifeandEnvironmentSocietyofSouth
    Africa
    WFD WaterFrameworkDirective(EU)
    WFP UnitedNationsWorldFoodProgramme
    WFP WaterFinancingProgram(ADB)
    WFPF WaterFinancingPartnershipFacility
    WHA WorldHealthAssembly
    WHO WorldHealthOrganization
    WHYCOS WorldHydrologicalCycleObservingSystem
    (WMO)
    WIN WaterIntegrityNetwork
    WMO WorldMeteorologicalOrganization
    WRC WaterResourcesCommission(Ghana)
    WRI WorldResourcesInstitute
    WRMA WaterResourcesManagementAuthority
    (Kenya)
    WSS watersupplyandsanitation
    WSSCC WaterSupplyandSanitationCollaborative
    Council
    WSSD WorldSummitonSustainableDevelopment
    WTP willingnesstopay
    WUA waterusersassociation
    WWAP WorldWaterAssessmentProgramme
    WWC WorldWaterCouncil
    WWDR WorldWaterDevelopmentReport
    WWF WorldWaterForum
    WWF WorldWideFundforNature
    WWTP wastewatertreatmentplant
    YRB YellowRiverbasin
    YRCC YellowRiverConservancyCommission
    369 ABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYMS
    370
    AajAsystemoftappingundergroundwaterwhichisled
    byman-madesubterraneanchannelstovillageswhereitis
    usedforirrigationanddomesticpurposes.
    agricultureActivitiesrelatedtothegrowingandproduc-
    tionofanimalsandcropsthatcantakeplaceeithergiventhe
    naturalrainfallpatterns(rainfedagriculture)orwiththeap-
    plicationofadditionalwater(irrigation),oftenfromsurface
    orgroundwatersources.
    agriculture-to-urbanwatertransferWhenwatersupplies
    thattraditionallyhavebeenallocatedtoagricultureactivities
    areallocatedtourbanareastohelpmeettheirdemands.
    aquacultureAlsoknownasaquafarming,thefarmingof
    aquaticorganismssuchassh,crustaceans,molluscsand
    aquaticplants.Commercialshingistheharvestingofwild
    sh.
    AQUASTATTheglobalinformationsystemonwaterand
    agriculturedevelopedbytheLandandWaterDivisionofthe
    FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations
    (FAO).
    aquiferAwaterbodyoccupyingporespaceintheEarth
    orrockformationsunderthesurfaceoftheEarth.Fossil
    aquiferstakethousandsofyearstobuildandrebuild(or
    recharge).
    arablecroppingTheprocessofgrowingcropsonlandthat
    canbeploughed.
    ArcticOscillation(AO)AlsoknownasNorthernAnnular
    Mode/NorthernHemisphereAnnularMode(NAM),anindex
    ofthedominantpatternofnon-seasonalsea-levelpressure
    variationsnorthof20latitude,characterizedbypressure
    anomaliesofonesignintheArcticwiththeoppositeanoma-
    liescentred3745N.
    aridregionCharacterizedbyaseverelackofavailablewa-
    ter,totheextentofhinderingorevenpreventingthegrowth
    anddevelopmentofplantandanimallife.Thereisnouniver-
    salagreementonthepreciseboundariesbetweenclasses
    suchashyper-aridorsemi-arid.
    AridityIndex(AI)Anumericalindicatorofthedegree
    ofdrynessoftheclimateatagivenlocation.Anumberof
    AIshavebeenproposed;theseindicatorsservetoiden-
    tify,locateordelimitregionsthatsuferfromadecitof
    availablewater,aconditionthatcanseverelyafecttheef-
    fectiveuseofthelandforsuchactivitiesasagricultureor
    stock-farming.
    AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation(AMOC)
    Carrieswarmupperwatersintofar-northernlatitudesand
    returnscolddeepwaterssouthwardacrosstheEquator.Its
    heattransportmakesasubstantialcontributiontothemod-
    erateclimateofmaritimeandcontinentalEurope.
    AtlanticMultidecadalOscillation(AMO)Variabilityofthe
    seasurfacetemperatureintheNorthAtlanticOcean.
    AnthropoceneAnewgeologicalepochsonamedbecause
    humanshavecometorivalnatureintheirimpactonthe
    physics,chemistryandbiologyoftheglobalenvironment.
    ablationTheremovalofmaterialfromthesurfaceofan
    objectbyvaporization,chippingorothererosiveprocesses.
    Ablationconstitutesakeypartofglaciermassbalance.The
    ablationzonereferstothelowaltitudeareaofaglacieroran
    icesheetwherethereisanetlossinicemassduetomelting,
    sublimation,evaporationorcalving.
    abstractionTheprocessoftakingwaterfromasource,
    eithertemporarilyorpermanently.
    acidrainTheprecipitationofdilutesolutionsofstrong
    mineralacids,formedbythemixingintheatmosphereof
    variousindustrialpollutants,primarilysulphurdioxideand
    nitrogenoxides,withnaturallyoccurringoxygenandwater
    vapour.
    adaptationAnyalterationinthestructure,functionor
    behaviourofanorganism,aninstitutionorasocietyasits
    externalenvironmentchangessothatitbecomesbetterable
    tosurvive,multiplyandachieveitsgoals,asapplicable,inits
    changingenvironment.
    adaptationtippingpointThecosts,risksandimpactsof
    climatechangewillincreaseovertimetothepointwhen
    theychallengetheexpectationsofresourcemanagersand
    thebusinesscommunityastheymakedecisions.
    adaptivecapacityThecapacityofasystem(e.g.ecologi-
    calorhumansocial)toadaptiftheenvironmentwherethe
    systemexistsischanging.
    adaptivedecision-makingApproachesandtechniques
    foraddressingproblemsovertimeinresponsetochanging
    conditions.
    adaptivemanagementAtypeofnaturalresourcemanage-
    mentwhereadjustmentsaremadeinresponsetoproject
    monitoring,newinformation,andchangingsocialconditions
    thatmayindicatetheneedtochangeacourseofaction.The
    aimistolearnaboutthesystemandimprovesystemperfor-
    manceovertime.
    adaptiveplanningPlanningmethodsthatconsideradap-
    tiontochanginganduncertainconditionsovertimeto
    achieveimprovedperformance,moreefectiveorefcient
    resourceuse,increasedbenets,reducedcostsandsoforth.
    adaptivestrategyPlanningormanagementstrategythat
    canchangedependingonchangingenvironmentalcondi-
    tionsorchangingobjectives.
    adaptivewatermanagementWatermanagementpolicies
    thatcanadapttochangingconditionsandobjectivesover
    time.
    advancemarketcommitmentAbindingcontract,typi-
    callyoferedbyagovernmentorothernancialentity,used
    toguaranteeaviablemarketifaproductissuccessfully
    developed.
    GLOSSARY
    370
    WWDR4 371
    progressdespiteinternationalaidandsupport.Coinedby
    PaulCollierinthe2007bookWhy the Poorest Countries are
    Failing and What Can Be Done About It.
    bottom-upapproachAstakeholder-drivenapproachto
    planninganddecision-makingasopposedtoagovernment
    top-downapproachthatdictatestothestakeholderswhat
    decisionswillbemade.
    BRIC(S)countriesBrazil,RussianFederation,India,China
    (andSouthAfrica).TheWWDR4usesbothterms(BRICand
    BRICS)asBRICSisanewdevelopmentandnotallstatistics
    anddescriptorshavebeenupdatedtoincludeSouthAfrica
    inthegroup.
    brittleness(asacharacteristicofasolution)Thelikelihood
    offailureshouldinputvariablevaluesdeviatefromthoseex-
    pectedandforwhichthesolutionwasdesigned.
    business-as-usualapproachProceedingasinthepast,in
    theusualprescribedmannerwithoutchanginganypolicyor
    plan.
    capacityTheabilitytoperformandaccomplishparticular
    tasks.Capacity-buildingandcapacitydevelopmentusually
    referstoeducationalprogrammesdesignedtogiveindividu-
    alstheknowledgeandskillsneededtoperformgiventasks.
    carboncreditAgenerictermforanytradablecerticate
    orpermitrepresentingtherighttoemitonetonneofcarbon
    dioxideorthemassofanothergreenhousegas(GHG)with
    acarbondioxideequivalenttoonetonneofcarbondiox-
    ide.Carboncreditsandcarbonmarketsareacomponentof
    nationalandinternationalattemptstomitigatethegrowthin
    concentrationsofGHGs.Carbontradingisanapplicationof
    anemissionstradingapproach.
    carboncycleThebiogeochemicalcyclebywhichcarbon
    isexchangedamongthebiosphere,pedosphere,geosphere,
    hydrosphereandatmosphereoftheEarth.Itallowsforcar-
    bontoberecycledandreusedthroughoutthebiosphereand
    allofitsorganisms.
    carbonsequestrationCapturingandstoringcarbondis-
    chargestotheatmosphereincarbonsinks(suchasoceans,
    forestsorsoils)toeithermitigateordeferglobalwarming
    andavoiddangerousclimatechange.
    cashcropCropgrownforsaleasopposedtoforconsump-
    tionbythosewhogrewthemonthefarm(subsistencecrop).
    catastrophemodellingDevelopmentanduseofmodels
    thatpredictrisksofcatastrophicevents.
    cleanenergySourcesofenergythatdonotpollutethe
    environmentordischargegreenhousegasesintotheatmos-
    phere,suchasenergyderivedfromthesun,tidesandwind.
    Hydropowerandnuclearenergysourcesarealsooftencon-
    sideredclean.
    clientelismTermusedtodescribeapoliticalsystematthe
    heartofwhichisanasymmetricrelationshipbetweengroups
    ofpoliticalactorsdescribedaspatronsandclients.
    climatechangeClimatechangereferstoanysignicant
    changeinmeasuresofclimate(suchastemperature,precipi-
    tationorwind)lastingforanextendedperiod(decadesor
    longer).Climatechangecanresultfromnaturalprocessesor
    humanactivities.Mitigationreferstomeasuresthatreduce
    anyadverseimpactsfromclimatechange.Adaptationrefers
    tomeasuresthataretakentobettermanagesystemsas
    BackcastingReverse-forecastingtechniquewhichstarts
    withaspecicfutureoutcomeandthenworksbackwards
    toidentifypoliciesandprogrammesthatwillconnecttothe
    presentconditions.Forecastingistheprocessofpredicting
    thefuturebasedoncurrenttrendanalysis.
    ballastwaterFreshorsaltwater,sometimescontaining
    sediments,heldintanksandcargoholdsofshipstoincrease
    stabilityandmanoeuvrabilityduringtransit.Thedischargeof
    waterfromballasttankshasbeenresponsiblefortheintro-
    ductionofspeciesthatcauseenvironmentalandeconomic
    damage.
    basinclosureWhensupplyofwaterfallsshortofcommit-
    mentstofulldemandintermsofwaterqualityandquantity
    withinthebasinandattherivermouth,forpartorallofthe
    year,basinsaresaidtobeclosingorclosed.Basinclosure
    canbeananthropogenicprocess.
    BayesiannetworkAgraphicalmodelthatencodesproba-
    bilisticrelationshipsamongvariablesofinterest.Itcanbe
    usedtolearncausalrelationships,andhencepredictthe
    consequencesofintervention.
    behaviouraldecisiontheoryTheoryonhowpeoplemake
    judgmentsandchoices,andhowtheprocessesofdecision
    mightbeimprovedusingconceptsandtoolsfrompsychol-
    ogy,economics,statisticsandotherdisciplines.Peoplesbe-
    haviourisbasedontheirperceptionofwhatrealityis,noton
    realityitself.
    benettransferapproachMethodusedtoestimateeco-
    nomicvaluesforecosystemservicesbytransferringavailable
    informationfromstudiesalreadycompletedinanotherloca-
    tionorcontext.
    biochemicaloxygendemand(BOD)Theamountofoxy-
    genneededbymicroorganismsdigesttheorganicmaterial
    inaunitvolumeofwateratagiventemperatureandfora
    giventime.Itisanindexofthedegreeoforganicpollution
    inwater.
    biodiversityThevariabilityamonglivingorganismsfrom
    allsourcesincludingterrestrial,marineandotheraquatic
    ecosystemsandtheecologicalcomplexesofwhichthey
    arepart.Thetotalityofgenes,speciesandecosystemsina
    region.
    biofuelOrganicmaterialproducedbyplants,animalsor
    microorganismssuchassugarcanestalks,leavesoranimal
    dung,thatcanbeburneddirectlyasaheatsourceorcon-
    vertedintoagaseousorliquidfuel.Thesefuelscanbeused
    foranypurposes,butthemainuseisinthetransportation
    sector.
    biomassenergyTheenergyderivedfromthecarbon,hy-
    drogenandoxygeninbiomass.Biomassenergyisderived
    fromvedistinctenergysources:garbage,wood,waste,
    landllgasesandalcoholfuels.
    biomeThecomplexoflivingcommunities(includinghu-
    mans)maintainedbytheclimateofaregionandcharacter-
    izedbyadistinctivetypeofvegetation,suchastundra,tropi-
    calforest,steppeanddesert.
    blackwaterWastewatercontainingfaeces.
    bluewaterNaturalsurfacewaterandgroundwater.
    bottombillionThealmostonebillionpeoplewholive
    inthe60orsoimpoverishedcountriesthathavefailedto
    371 WWDR4 GLOSSARY
    372
    glaciers,icecapsandicesheets,andfrozenground(which
    includespermafrost).
    decisionrules(minimax,maximin)Strategiesorpolicies
    thatminimizetheworstthatcanhappen(i.e.minimizethe
    maximumadverseaspectorimpactormeasureofsystem
    performance)orthatmaximizetheleastbenecialaspect,
    impactormeasureofsystemperformance.
    decision-scalingIdentifyingwhatkindofclimatechanges
    wouldcauseproblemsandthenturningtotheclimatemod-
    elstoestimatewhetherthoseclimatechangesarelikely.
    decision-supporttoolToolssuchasmodelsthatinform
    theprocessofdecision-making.Oftentheseareinteractive
    menu-drivencomputer-basedprogrammes.
    deforestationTheremovalofforestsandforestcover,
    oftenforthepurposeofagriculture,urbanorindustrial
    development.
    deltaAlandformthatisformedatthemouthofariver
    wherethatriverowsintoanocean,sea,estuary,lake,reser-
    voir,ataridareaoranotherriver,fromthedepositionofthe
    sedimentcarriedbytheriverastheowleavesthemouth.
    demandhardeningAsawateruserbecomesmoreef-
    cientintheuseofwater,itbecomesmoredifculttosave
    increasedamountsofwaterduringashortageordrought.
    demandmanagementmeasureAnactionthatismeantto
    ensuregreateravailabilityofresourcestomeetthelevelof
    requests.
    demographyThestudyofthecharacteristicsofhuman
    populations,suchassize,growth,density,distributionand
    vitalstatistics.
    desalinationRemovalofsaltandotherimpuritiesfromsea
    orbrackishsurfaceorgroundwater.
    deserticationLanddegradationinarid,semi-aridanddry
    sub-humidareasresultingfromvariousfactors,includingcli-
    maticvariationsandhumanactivities.
    disasterriskmanagement(DRM)Measurestakentore-
    ducetherisksofhumansuferingandeconomiclosses
    causedbynaturalandtechnologicaldisasters.
    disasterriskreduction(DRR)Thepracticeofreducingdis-
    asterrisksthroughsystematicefortstoanalyseandreduce
    thecausalfactorsofdisasters.
    discountingDeterminingthevalueofsomeamountof
    moneyinanearliertimeperiodtakingintoaccountthetime
    valueofmoney.Itistheoppositeofcompounding,andre-
    quirestheuseofaninterestrateapplicabletothetimeinter-
    valbeingconsidered.
    dissolvedoxygen(DO)Theamountorconcentrationof
    oxygeninamedium,suchaswater.TheDOdecitfromits
    saturationconcentrationisacommonindicatorofthede-
    greeoforganicpollutioninawaterbody.
    diversicationThevariabilityorrichnessoftypesofspe-
    ciesororganismsinecosystemsortypesofinvestmentsin
    investmentportfoliosthatdecreasetherisksofmajorfail-
    uresinecosystemsoroflargeeconomiclosses,asapplicable.
    driverForceoreventoutsidethesystemofinterestthataf-
    fectitsbehaviourorperformancedirectlyorindirectly.
    theychangeduetoachangingclimate.Forcingisaprocess
    thatalterstheenergybalanceoftheclimatesystem;thatis,
    changestherelativebalancebetweenincomingsolarradia-
    tionandoutgoinginfraredradiationfromEarth.
    ClimateVulnerabilityIndex(CVI)Afunctiondependenton
    climateexposure,resilienceandadaptability.TheCVIuses
    waterasafocusasitisakeyfactorofhumanandecological
    well-being.
    climate-smartcroppingMeasurestoconservenutrients,
    waterandbiodiversityinwaysthatincreasecropyields.
    closed-loopproductionsystemAnenvironmentallyfriend-
    lyproductionsysteminwhichanyindustrialresidualoutput
    iscapableofbeingrecycledtocreateanotherproduct.
    command-and-controlapproachAnapproachinwhicha
    regulatorybodyorpoliticalauthoritydictatesabehaviour
    orhowsomegoalistobeachieved.Inenvironmentalpolicy,
    thisbasicallyinvolvesthesettingofstandardstoprotector
    improveenvironmentalquality.
    conditionalcashtransfer(CCT)Programmesthataimto
    reducepovertybymakingwelfareprogramsconditional
    uponthereceiversactions.Thegovernmenttransfersthe
    moneyonlytopersonswhomeetcertaincriteria.
    conservationagriculturePracticesthataimtoachieve
    sustainableandprotableagricultureandsubsequentlyim-
    provedlivelihoodsoffarmersthroughminimalsoildistur-
    bance,permanentsoilcoverandcroprotations.
    convertibleloanLoanthatentitlesthelender(orthe
    holderofloandebenture)toconverttheloantocommonor
    preferredstock(ordinaryorpreferenceshares)ataspecied
    conversionrateandwithinaspeciedtimeframe.
    corporatesocialresponsibility(CSR)Aformofcorporate
    self-regulationintegratedintoabusinessmodel.Thegoalis
    toembraceresponsibilityforthecompanysactionsanden-
    courageapositiveimpactthroughitsactivitiesontheenvi-
    ronment,consumers,employees,communities,stakeholders
    andthepublic.
    corruptionInducementtowrongbyimproperorunlawful
    meanssuchasbribery.
    costbenetriskanalysisProcedureforcalculatingand
    evaluatingthebenets,costsandrisksofaproposedproject.
    cradle-to-cradleIndustrialdesignandoperationparadigm
    basedontheprinciplesandanunderstandingofthepursuit
    ofvalue,processesforproductandmaterialresearchandde-
    velopment,andforeducatingandtraining.Cradle-to-cradle
    principlesencouragemakingwasteintofoodandfueljustas
    naturedoes;theyseektocreatesystemsthatarenotjustef-
    cientbutessentiallywastefree.
    cropperdropTheamountorvalueofproductovervolume
    orvalueofwaterdepletedordivertedtoproduceit.
    cross-cutting(issue)Topicofconcerntoseveraldiferent
    sectorsorintereststhatincludesubjectssuchaseducation,
    nanceandbudgeting,personnelmanagementandsecurity,
    trade,technologytransfer,consumptionandproductionpat-
    terns,science,capacity-buildingandinformation.
    cryospherePortionsoftheEarthssurfacewherewateris
    insolidform,includingseaice,lakeice,riverice,snowcover,
    372
    WWDR4 373
    energyclimatewatercycleThiscyclingofwaterisinti-
    matelylinkedwithenergyexchangesamongtheatmosphere,
    ocean,andlandthatdeterminetheEarthsclimateandcause
    muchofnaturalclimatevariability.
    environmentalowThecoreobjectiveofriverbasinman-
    agement.Instreamorriverowsandregimedesignedto
    maintainhealthyaquaticecosystemsinthestreamorriver.
    Watersallocatedtoenvironmentalowsarenotavailablefor
    withdrawalstoof-streamusers.
    environmentalmanagementaccounting(EMA)Abusiness
    toolforcreatinginternaldemandinbusinessesforcleaner
    andlesswastefulproductionprocesses.
    environmentalmanagementsystem(EMS)Management
    ofanorganizationsenvironmentalprogrammesinacompre-
    hensive,systematic,plannedanddocumentedmanner.An
    EMSofersastructuredwaytoincorporateenvironmental
    considerationsintoday-to-dayoperations.
    environmental/ecosystemassessmentEstimationofthe
    adverseefectsthathumanactivitiesandpollutantshaveon
    anecosystem.
    estuaryAbayorinletoftenatthemouthofariverinwhich
    largequantitiesoffreshwaterandsaltwatermixtogether.
    eutrophicationThenutrientenrichmentofwatersthat
    stimulatesanarrayofsymptomaticchanges,amongwhich
    increasedproductionofalgaeandmacrophytes,deteriora-
    tionofwaterqualityandotherchangesareconsideredunde-
    sirableandinterferewithwaterusers.
    evapotranspirationWaterreleasedtotheatmosphere
    throughevaporationfromthegroundandwatersurfaces
    andfromtheleafsurfaceofplants(transpiration).
    extractionTheprocessoflocating,acquiring,removing
    andsellinganyresource.
    extreme(hydrological)eventUnusualhydrologicalcondi-
    tionsrarelyobserved,suchasoods,droughts,temperatures,
    windsandstorms.
    t-for-purposestructureAstructurethatissuitableand
    goodenoughtodothejobitwasdesignedtodo.Fit-for-
    purposeisoneoftheprinciplesforqualityassurance.
    ashoodFlashoodsareshort-termevents,occurring
    withinsixhoursofthecausativeevent(heavyrain,dam
    break,leveefailure,rapidsnowmeltoricejam)andoften
    withintwohoursofthestartofhighintensityrainfall.
    oodplainMostlyatlandadjacenttoariver,formedby
    theactionsoftheriver.Floodplainsarebenecialforreduc-
    ingthenumberandseverityofoods.
    foodsecurityHaving,atalltimes,bothphysicalandeco-
    nomicaccesstosufcientfoodtomeetdietaryneedsfora
    productiveandhealthylife.Foodsecurityisbuiltonfood
    availability,accessanduse.
    foodwastageFoodwastesaretheorganicresiduesgener-
    atedbythehandling,storage,sale,preparation,cookingand
    servingoffood.Foodwastageisasymptomofdeveloped
    countriesconsumerism.
    fossilfuel,hydrocarbonAbroadnamegiventoavariety
    offuelsfoundintheEarth.Thesefuelshavethenamefossil
    fuelsbecausetheyprobablyformedfromtheremainsofan-
    cientdecayingorganisms.
    droughtThenaturallyoccurringphenomenonthatexists
    whenprecipitationhasbeensignicantlybelownormalre-
    cordedlevels,causingserioushydrologicalimbalancesthat
    adverselyafectlandresourceproductionsystems.
    drought-resilientcropCropthatisabletosurviveand
    recoverfromextendeddryperiods.Drought-resistantcrops
    typicallyrefertocropsthathavebeensubjectedtoplant
    breedingtoimprovetheirabilitytosurviveinperiodsofex-
    tendedwatershortage.
    drylandsArid,semi-aridanddrysub-humidareas,other
    thanpolarandsubpolarregions,inwhichtheratioofannual
    precipitationtopotentialevapotranspirationfallswithinthe
    rangefrom0.05to0.65.
    dry-yearoptionContractualagreementsthatprovidefor
    voluntaryandtemporarydrought-triggeredwatertransfers.
    durableconsumptionrateRateofconsumptionofgoods
    thatdonotquicklywearout,ormorespecically,goodsthat
    yieldutilityovertimeratherthanbeingcompletelycon-
    sumedinoneuse.
    earlywarningsystemTechnologydesignedtoprovidead-
    vancedwarningofpendinghazardsorotherevents.
    eco-efciencywaterinfrastructureguidelinesProcedures
    fordesigningwaterinfrastructureforthedeliveryofcompet-
    itivelypricedgoodsandservicesthatsatisfyhumanneeds
    andimprovequalityoflife,whileprogressivelyreducingeco-
    logicalimpactsandresourceuse.
    eco-innovationThecommercialapplicationofknowledge
    toelicitdirectorindirectecologicalimprovements.
    ecologicalfootprintThebiologicallyproductivelandand
    waterareathatapersonorpopulationrequiresfromaround
    theworldtoproducetheresourcesconsumedandtoabsorb
    thewastesgeneratedusingprevailingtechnology.
    ecosystemAdynamiccomplexofplant,animalandmi-
    croorganismcommunitiesandtheirnon-livingenvironment
    interactingasafunctionalunit.
    ecosystem/environmentalinfrastructureInfrastructure
    thatprovidesecosystemservicessuchaswaterpurication,
    oodcontrol,recreationandclimatestabilization.
    ecosystemservices(andgoodsandfunctions)Anyaspect
    ofecosystemstructureandfunctionthathasaneconomic,
    socialorculturalvalue,knownorunknown,toitsinhabitants.
    ecosystemtippingpointAthresholdatwhicharelatively
    smallchangecausesarapidchangeinanecosystem.When
    thethresholdhasbeenpassed,theecosystemmaynolonger
    beabletoreturntoitspreviousstate.
    efuentThedischargefromawastewatertreatmentplant,
    orwateruser.
    ElNio-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)Aquasiperiodiccom-
    plexclimatepatternthatoccursacrossthetropicalPacic
    Oceanroughlyeveryveyears,withimpactssuchasoods
    anddroughts.
    energyPrimaryenergyisanenergysourcefoundinnature
    thathasnotbeensubjectedtoanyconversionortrans-
    formationprocess.Itcanberenewableornon-renewable.
    Secondaryenergyisderivedfromprimaryenergysourc-
    es;forexample,electricity,transformedfromsuchprimary
    sourcesascoal,oil,naturalgasandwind.
    373 WWDR4 GLOSSARY
    374
    willalwaysbeevaporationfromthesoilandbecausenotall
    periodsoftheyearorareasaresuitableforcropgrowth).
    greenhousegas(GHG)Agasinanatmospherethatab-
    sorbsandemitsradiationwithinthethermalinfraredrange.
    TheprimaryGHGsintheEarthsatmospherearewaterva-
    pour,carbondioxide,methane,nitrousoxide,andozone.
    greywaterPollutedwaterthatresultsfromnon-sanitary
    usesofwater(e.g.dishwashing,showers).
    GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)Themarketvalueofall-
    nalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagiven
    period.GDPpercapitaisoftenconsideredanindicatorof
    acountrysstandardofliving.Itisnottobeconfusedwith
    GrossNationalProduct(GNP),whichallocatesproduction
    basedonownership.
    groundwaterAquiferstoragechangesdependingonthe
    waterwithdrawn(abstracted)andadded(recharge)over
    time.Aquiferstoragecanactasabufer,permittingwith-
    drawalsduringperiodsoflowrecharge,aslongasthedecit
    isreducedduringperiodsofrelativelyhighrecharge.
    hardinfrastructure,hardengineeringapproachLarge
    physicalnetworksnecessaryforthefunctioningofamodern
    industrialnation.
    healthimpactassessment(HIA)Ameansofassessingthe
    healthimpactsofpolicies,plansandprojectsindiverseeco-
    nomicsectorsusingquantitative,qualitativeandparticipa-
    torytechniques.
    householdwatersecurityThereliableavailabilityofsafe
    waterinthehomeforalldomesticpurposes.Thetermhas
    bothaquantityandaqualitycomponent.
    HumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)Atooldevelopedbythe
    UnitedNationstomeasure,trackandcomparecountrieslev-
    elsofsocialandeconomicdevelopmentbasedonfourcrite-
    ria:lifeexpectancyatbirth,meanyearsofschooling,expect-
    edyearsofschooling,andgrossnationalincomepercapita.
    humanwell-beingAstateofhealth,happinessandpros-
    perity;ofbeingwithothers,wherehumanneedsaremet,
    whereonecanactmeaningfullytopursueonesgoals,and
    whereoneenjoysasatisfactoryqualityoflife.
    hydroelectricityElectricitygeneratedfromahydropower
    plantthattypicallyuseswaterfromastoragereservoirto
    driveturbinesthatgeneratetheelectricity.
    hydro-geologicaldatasetDatabasescontainingvaluesof
    hydrologicalandgeologicalparametersandvariables.
    hydrographicnetworkThesumtotalofwaterbodiesand
    streamsonland(rivers,lakes,swampsandwaterreservoirs).
    hydrologicalcycle=hydrologiccycle=H
    2
    Ocycle=water
    cycleThecirculatoryuxofwateratorneartheEarths
    surface.
    hydrologicalrecordRecordedtimeseriesdataofhydro-
    logicalvariablevaluessuchasstreamows,precipitation,
    groundwaterlevelsandwaterqualityconstituentconcentra-
    tions,obtainedfrommonitoring.
    hydrometeorologyAbranchofmeteorologyandhydrolo-
    gythatstudiesthetransferofwaterandenergybetweenthe
    landsurfaceandtheloweratmosphere.
    free-ridingIneconomics,collectivebargaining,psychol-
    ogyandpoliticalscience,free-ridingreferstothebehaviour
    ofconsumingaresourcewithoutpayingforit,orpayingless
    thanthefullcost.Itisusuallyconsideredtobeaneconomic
    problemonlywhenitleadstothenon-productionorunder-
    productionofapublicgoodorwhenitleadstotheexcessive
    useofacommonpropertyresource.
    freshwaterWatercontaininglessthan1,000milligrams
    perlitreofdissolvedsolids,mostoftensalt.Itnaturallyoc-
    cursontheEarthssurfaceinicesheets,icecaps,glaciers,
    bogs,ponds,lakes,riversandstreams,andundergroundas
    groundwaterinaquifersandundergroundstreams.Thisterm
    specicallyexcludesseawaterandbrackishwateralthoughit
    doesincludemineralrichwaterssuchaschalybeatesprings.
    glacierAlargepersistentbodyoficethatformswherethe
    accumulationofsnowexceedsitsablation(meltingandsub-
    limation)overmanyyears,oftencenturies.Glacialiceisthe
    largestreservoiroffreshwateronEarth.
    glacierlakeoutburstood(GLOF)andoutburstsofglacier-
    dammedlakes(jkulhlaups)Asglaciersretreatdueto
    increasingtemperatures,glaciallakesstarttoformandrap-
    idlyllupbehindnaturalmoraineoricedamsatthebottom
    orontopoftheseglaciers.Theiceorsedimentbodiesthat
    containthelakescanbreachsuddenly,leadingtoadis-
    chargeofvolumesofwateranddebris.
    globaltradeinwaterresourcesLong-distancetransfersof
    waterindirectorindirect(virtual)form,wherevirtualwater
    isthevolumeofwaterthathasbeenusedtoproduceacom-
    modityandthatisthusvirtuallyembeddedinit.
    globalwarmingTherisingaveragetemperatureofEarths
    atmosphereandoceansanditsprojectedcontinuation.
    globalizationTheincreasinglyglobalrelationshipsofcul-
    ture,peopleandeconomicactivity.
    governanceDecisionsthatgrantpower,orverifyperfor-
    mance.Governanceiseitherapartofmanagementorlead-
    ershipprocessesoraseparateprocess.Theseprocessesand
    systemsaretypicallyadministeredbyagovernment.Water
    governanceisthesetofformalandinformalprocesses
    throughwhichdecisionsrelatedtowatermanagementare
    made.
    greeneconomyAneconomythatresultsinimprovedhu-
    manwell-beingandsocialequitywhilesignicantlyreduc-
    ingenvironmentalrisksandecologicalscarcities.Itsmost
    distinguishingfeaturefromprioreconomicregimesisdirect
    valuationofnaturalcapitalandecologicalservicesashaving
    economicvalue.
    greeninfrastructureThecollectionoflifesupportfunc-
    tionsprovidedbyanetworkofnaturalecosystems,withan
    emphasisoninterconnectivitytosupportlong-termsustain-
    ability.Examplesincludecleanwaterandhealthysoils,ood
    protection,aswellasthemoreanthropocentricfunctions
    suchasrecreationandprovidingshadeandshelterinand
    aroundtownsandcities.
    greenwaterTheprecipitationonlandthatdoesnotrunof
    orrechargethegroundwaterbutisstoredinthesoilortem-
    porarilystaysontopofthesoilorvegetation.Eventually,this
    partofprecipitationevaporatesortranspiresthroughplants.
    Greenwatercanbemadeproductiveforcropgrowth(but
    notallgreenwatercanbetakenupbycrops,becausethere
    374
    WWDR4 375
    quantityofwaterinanaturalsourcebehindadamorother
    hydraulicstructure;ortousewaterinanaturalsource.
    landdegradationReductionorlossofthebiologicalor
    economicproductivityandcomplexityofland,resultingfrom
    processes,includingprocessesarisingfromhumanactivities
    andhabitationpatterns,suchas(i)soilerosioncausedby
    windand/orwater;(ii)deteriorationofthephysical,chemical
    andbiologicaloreconomicpropertiesofsoil;and(iii)long-
    termlossofnaturalvegetation.
    landmanagementProcessbywhichtheresourcesofland
    areputtogoodefect,fromanenvironmentalandaneco-
    nomicperspective.
    landsubsidenceSinkingelevationofthegroundsurface,
    whichmayoccuroveranaquiferthatisslowlydrainingand
    decreasinginvolumebecauseofporecollapse.
    large-scalelandacquisitionGainingoftenurerightsto
    largeareasoflandthroughpurchase,lease,concessionor
    othermeans.
    leastdevelopedcountries(LDCs)Agroupofcountries
    thathavebeenidentiedbytheUnitedNationsasleastde-
    velopedintermsoftheirlowgrossnationalincome,their
    weakhumanassetsandtheirhighdegreeofeconomic
    vulnerability.
    livelihoodAmeansofsupportorsubsistence.
    low-owapplianceAnappliancethatisdesignedtore-
    ducewaterconsumptionwithoutcompromisingperfor-
    manceoftheappliance.
    managedaquiferrecharge(MAR)Theprocessofadding
    awatersourcesuchasrecycledwatertoaquifersundercon-
    trolledconditionsforwithdrawalatalaterdate,orofusing
    thewatersourceasabarriertopreventsaltwaterorother
    contaminantsfromenteringtheaquifer.
    megacityAcitythathasapopulationofmorethan10mil-
    lionpeopleandthatisoftenmadeoftwoormoreurbanar-
    easthathavegrownsomuchtheyhavebecomeconnected.
    micronanceThegoalofmicronanceistogivelow-
    incomepeopleanopportunitytobecomeself-sufcient
    byprovidingameansofsavingmoney,borrowingsmall
    amountsofmoneythroughmicrocredit,andbuyingmicro-
    insuranceforlowervaluedassets.
    MillenniumDevelopmentGoal(MDG)Goalsthataim
    toimprovehumanwell-beingbyreducingpoverty,hun-
    ger,childandmaternalmortality,ensuringeducationforall,
    controllingandmanagingdiseases,tacklinggenderdispar-
    ity,ensuringsustainabledevelopment,andpursuingglobal
    partnerships.
    MillenniumEcosystemAssessmentIdenticationofthe
    consequencesofecosystemchangeforhumanwell-being
    andthescienticbasisforactionneededtoenhanceconser-
    vationandsustainableuseofthosesystems.
    modularwatertreatmentdesignDesignofpre-fabricated,
    self-containedandtransportablewatertreatmentfacilities.
    monsoonTheseasonalwindoftheIndianOceanand
    southernAsia,blowingfromthesouthwestinsummerand
    northeastinthewinter.
    moraineAnaccumulationofearthandstonescarriedand
    nallydepositedbyaglacier.
    hydromorphologicalalteration/modicationHumanpres-
    sureonthenaturalstructureofsurfacewaterssuchasmodi-
    cationofbankstructures,sediment/habitatcomposition,
    dischargeregime,gradientandslope.
    impactsthinkingThinkingthathasbeenimpactedbyex-
    ternalevents.
    indeterminacyThequalityofsomethingbeinguncertain,
    orincalculable.
    indicatorAmeasurethatindicatesthestateofsome-
    thingelse.Inecology,anorganismorecologicalcommunity
    sostrictlyassociatedwithparticularenvironmentalcondi-
    tionsthatitspresenceisindicativeoftheexistenceofthese
    conditions.Ineconomics,anyofagroupofstatisticalvalues
    thattakentogethergiveanindicationofthehealthofthe
    economy.
    institutionInterpersonalnetworksofgroupsofindividu-
    als(informalinstitutions)thatdealwithsocialissuesevolve
    associetydevelopseconomicallyintoformalinstitutionsofa
    market-basedeconomy,suchasastructuredsystemoflaws
    imposedbyrepresentativeformsofgovernance.
    integratedpestmanagementEfectiveandenvironmen-
    tallysensitiveapproachtopestmanagementthatrelieson
    comprehensiveinformationonthelifecyclesofpestsand
    theirinteractionwiththeenvironment.Thisinformation,in
    combinationwithavailablepestcontrolmethods,isusedto
    managepestdamagebythemosteconomicalmeans,and
    withtheleastpossiblehazardtopeople,propertyandthe
    environment.
    integratedplantnutritionmanagementUseofnutrients
    inayield-targeted,site-andsoilspecicway;understanding
    theinter-relationofdiferentnutrients;useofcombinations
    ofmineralandorganicfertilizers;provisionofnutrientsona
    cropping-system/rotationbasis;anduseofon-farmandof-
    farmwastethroughrecycling.
    integratedurbanwatermanagement(IUWM)Thepractice
    ofmanagingfreshwater,wastewaterandstormwateraslinks
    withintheresourcemanagementstructure,usinganurban
    areaastheunitofmanagement.
    integratedwaterresourcesmanagement(IWRM)Asys-
    tematicprocessforthesustainabledevelopment,allocation
    andmonitoringofwaterresourceuseinthecontextofsocial,
    economicandenvironmentalobjectives.
    irrigationThescienceofarticialapplicationofwaterto
    thelandorsoil.Insurfaceirrigationsystems,watermoves
    overthelandbysimplegravityowinorderinltrateinto
    thesoil.Indripirrigation,thewaterisplaceddropbydrop
    neartherootzoneoftheplants.Groundandrainfedsources
    obtaintheirwaterfromgroundwaterandrainfallrespectively.
    jetstreamRelativelystrongwindsconcentratedwithina
    narrowstreamintheatmosphere.
    knowledgemanagementThebranchofmanagementthat
    seekstoimproveperformanceinbusinessbyenhancingan
    organizationscapacitytolearn,innovateandsolveproblems.
    landandwaterrightsTherelationship,whetherlegally
    orcustomarilydenedbetweenpeople,asindividualsor
    groups,withrespecttoland.Inessenceawaterrightisale-
    galright:toabstractordivertanduseaspeciedquantityof
    waterfromanaturalsource;toimpoundorstoreaspecied
    375 WWDR4 GLOSSARY
    376
    phreatophyticagricultureAtypeofagriculturefocusing
    ondeep-rootedplantsthatobtainwaterfromthewaterta-
    bleorthelayerofsoiljustaboveit.
    physicalooddefencesystemLevees,weirs,dykesand
    reservoirssystemsinplacetoprotectareasfromood
    devastation.
    point-of-use(PoU)watertreatment/technologyAmeth-
    odofwatertreatmentusedtoimprovewaterqualityforan
    intendeduseatthepointofconsumptioninsteadofata
    centralizedtreatmentfacility.
    polluterpaysprincipleInenvironmentallaw,thepolluter
    paysprincipleisenactedtoensurethepartyresponsiblefor
    producingpollutionisresponsibleforpayingforthedamage
    donetothenaturalenvironment.
    pollutionabatementtechnologyTechnologythatisde-
    signedtoreducetheconcentrationofcontaminantsinwater
    oronland.
    pollutant/pollutionContaminantsinanaturalenviron-
    mentthatcauseinstability,disorder,harmordiscomfortto
    theecosystemorreducethevalueofenvironmentalmedia
    forotheruses.Pointsourcepollutionisasingleidentiable
    localizedsourceofpollution.Non-pointsourcepollution
    comesfrommanydifusesourcesbyairbornedeposition
    aswellasfromrainfallorsnowmeltmovingoverandthrough
    theground.Difusesourcepollutionhasnospecicpointof
    discharge.
    portfoliotheoryTheoryofinvestmentwhichattemptsto
    maximizeportfolioexpectedreturnforagivenamountof
    portfoliorisk,orequivalentlyminimizeriskforagivenlevel
    ofexpectedreturn,bycarefullychoosingtheproportionof
    variousassets.
    potable/non-potablewaterPotablewaterissuitablefor
    humanconsumption;non-potablewaterisnot.
    precautionaryprincipleStatesthatifanactionorpolicy
    hasasuspectedriskofcausingharmtothepublicortothe
    environment,intheabsenceofscienticconsensusthat
    theactionorpolicyisharmful,burdenofproofthatitisnot
    harmfulfallsonthosetakingtheaction.
    protectionistpolicy,protectionismTheeconomicpolicy
    ofrestrainingtradebetweenstatesthroughmethodssuchas
    tarifsonimportedgoods,restrictivequotasandavarietyof
    othergovernmentregulationsdesignedtoallowfaircom-
    petitionbetweenimportsandgoodsandservicesproduced
    domestically.
    publicprivatepartnership(PPP)Agovernmentservice
    orprivatebusinessventurewhichisfundedandoperated
    throughapartnershipofgovernmentandoneormorepri-
    vatesectorcompanies.
    RamsarconventionAnintergovernmentaltreatythat
    embodiesthecommitmentsofitsmembercountriesto
    maintaintheecologicalcharacteroftheirWetlandsof
    InternationalImportanceandtoplanforthewiseuseor
    sustainableuseofallofthewetlandsintheirterritories.
    rechargeGroundwaterrechargeisahydrologicalprocess
    wherewatermovestogroundwater.Surfacewaterrecharge
    isahydrologicalprocesswherewaterrunsoftosurface
    watercourses.
    multilateralenvironmentalagreementAnagreementcre-
    atedbytheUnitedNationsbetweenmultiplenationsthat
    pledgetoconducttradeoperationsinsuchawaythatlimits
    negativeenvironmentalimpacts.
    nexusAconnectedgrouporseriesofinterdependent
    components.
    nitratevulnerablezoneAreasoflandthatdrainintoni-
    tratepollutedwater,orwaterthatcouldbecomepollutedby
    nitrates.
    non-consumptiveproductionprocessProductionprocess-
    esthatmayusebutdonotconsumewater.Examplesinclude
    thewaterusedforhydropowerelectricityproductionand
    thatusedforcoolingofthermoelectricpowerplants.
    nonstationarity,nonstationaryprobabilitiesChanging
    probabilitydistributionsortheirparametersovertime.
    no-regretsdecisionAdecisiontakenbyhouseholds,com-
    munitiesorinstitutionsthatcanbejustiedfromeconomic,
    socialandenvironmentalperspectivesregardlessoffuture
    changesinexternalconditions.
    NorthAtlanticOscillation(NAO)Thelarge-scaleseesaw
    inatmosphericmassbetweenthesubtropicalhighandpolar
    low.
    ofcialdevelopmentassistance/aid(ODA)Theamount
    thatanationexpendsthroughgrantsandotherdevelop-
    mentassistanceprogramscalculatedasapercentofgross
    nationalproduct.
    output-basedaid(OBA)Developmentaidstrategiesthat
    linkthedeliveryofpublicservicesindevelopingcountriesto
    targetedperformance-relatedsubsidies.
    PacicDecadalOscillation(PDO)ApatternofPaciccli-
    matevariabilitythatshiftsphasesonatleastaninter-decad-
    altimescale,usually20to30years.
    pathdependenceExplainshowthesetofdecisionsfaced
    foranygivencircumstanceislimitedbythedecisionsmade
    inthepast,eventhoughpastcircumstancesmaynolonger
    berelevant.
    paymentforecosystem/environmentalservices(PES)The
    practiceofoferingincentivestofarmersorlandownersin
    exchangeformanagingtheirlandtoprovidesomesortof
    ecologicalservice.
    peakecologicalwaterThepointbeyondwhichthetotal
    costsofecologicaldisruptionsanddamagesexceedthetotal
    valueprovidedbyhumanuseofthatwater.
    peakrenewablewaterAtermappliedwhereowcon-
    straintslimittotalwateravailabilityovertime.
    percolationrateTherateatwhichwatermovesthrough
    saturatedgranularmaterial.
    peri-urbanslum/areaAboutathirdoftheworldsslum
    dwellersliveintraditionalinnercities,butmostliveonthe
    peripheraledgeinperi-urbanslumssprawling,endless
    slum-suburbs.
    photobioreactor(PBR)Adevicethathousesandculti-
    vatesalgae.Itprovidesasuitableenvironmentforalgae
    growth,supplyinglight,nutrients,airandheattotheculture,
    inadditiontoprotectingtheculturefromcontamination.
    376
    WWDR4 377
    sector-wideapproachtoplanning(SWAP)Anapproach
    whereinplanningandactivityisatthewholeofsectorlevel,
    andthemanyaspectsofasectoraretakenintoconsidera-
    tion(capacityofpersonnel,institutionalstrength,stake-
    holderconsultation,implementationprocesses,monitoring,
    nancingandsoon).
    sensitivityanalysisThestudyofhowthevariation(uncer-
    tainty)intheoutputofamodelcanbeattributedtodiferent
    variationsintheinputsofthemodel.
    sewageadministrationAdministrationofwastewatercol-
    lectionandtreatmentsystemstypicallysothattheyproduce
    enoughrevenuestofundtheirownactivities.
    sewage,sewerageDomesticwastewatertypicallycollect-
    edinsewersorditchesandtreatedinwastewatertreatment
    plantsordischargedasisintowaterbodies.
    smallholderAnindividualfarmingonasmallareaofland,
    lessthanthesizeofasmallfarm.
    snowpackLayersofsnowthataccumulateingeographic
    regionsandhighaltitudeswheretheclimateincludescold
    weatherforextendedperiodsduringtheyear.
    sociallearningObservationallearningcanoccurinrelation
    toanactualpersondemonstratingthedesiredbehaviour
    anindividualdescribesthedesiredbehaviourindetail,and
    instructstheparticipantinhowtoengageinthebehaviour
    throughthemedia,including,movies,television,Internet,
    literatureandradio.
    socio-ecologicalsystem(SES)Abio-geo-physicalunitand
    itsassociatedsocialactorsandinstitutions.Socio-ecological
    systemsarecomplexandadaptiveanddelimitedbyspatial
    orfunctionalboundariessurroundingparticularecosystems
    andtheirproblemcontext.
    softinfrastructureAlltheinstitutionsthatarerequiredto
    maintaintheeconomic,health,culturalandsocialstandards
    ofacountry,suchasthenancialsystem,theeducationsys-
    tem,thehealthcaresystem,thesystemofgovernment,law
    enforcement,andemergencyservices.
    softpath(approach,measure,infrastructure,policy)The
    softpathintegratesbothsupplyanddemandconcepts,rec-
    ognizingthatwaterisameanstosatisfydemandsforgoods
    andservices,andaskshowmuchwater,ofwhatquality,is
    actuallyrequiredtosatisfythosedemandsefcientlyand
    sustainably.
    stakeholderAperson,group,organizationorsystemwho
    afectsorcanbeafectedbyanorganizationsactions.
    stationaryhydrologyTheprobabilisticnatureofhydrologi-
    calprocessesisnotchangingovertime.
    stochasticanalysisTheanalysisofrandomprocessesthat
    takeplaceovertime.
    stormsurgeAnofshoreriseofwatertypicallyassociated
    withalowpressureweathersystem.
    stormtrackRelativelynarrowzonesintheAtlanticand
    PacicOceansalongwhichmostAtlanticorPacicextrat-
    ropicalcyclonesorhurricanestravel.
    supply-sideinfrastructureInfrastructuredesignedtopro-
    videthesupplyandqualityofwaterorenergyneededto
    meetthedemand.
    reclaimedwaterFormerwastewater(sewage)thatis
    treatedtoremovesolidsandcertainimpurities,andisused
    inlandscaping,irrigation,industrialcooling,ortorecharge
    groundwateraquifers.Thepurposeoftheseprocessesiswa-
    terconservation,ratherthandischargingthetreatedwater
    tosurfacewaterssuchasriversandoceans.
    reservoirrule/guidecurveAreservoirreleasepolicyspeci-
    fyingreleasesasafunctionofexistingstoragelevelorvol-
    umeandtimeofyear,orspecifyingatargetstoragevalue
    giventhetimeofyearandsometimestheinowaswell.
    resilienceAmeasureoftheabilityofasystemtorecover
    fromanunsatisfactorystate.
    results-basednancing(RBF)Tiesthedisbursementof
    subsidies(oraid)tothedeliveryofactualresults.Forex-
    ample,acarbonnancestrategyinvolvesmitigationpoli-
    ciesandmarketmechanismstocreateanenvironmentthat
    promotesdiverseenergysourcesandincentivesfornewand
    cleanertechnologies.
    retentioncapacityThecapacitytostoreandholdwater,
    suchasinsoil.
    rights-basedapproachUseofhumanrightsasaframe-
    worktoguidethedevelopmentprocess.
    riskProbabilityofanundesirableoutcome.
    riskmanagementTheidentication,assessmentandpri-
    oritizationofrisksfollowedbycoordinatedandeconomical
    applicationofresourcestominimize,monitorandcontrolthe
    probabilityorimpactofunfortunateeventsortomaximize
    therealizationofopportunities.
    rivergaugingstationSiteandfacilitywheretheriverow
    orstageisbeingmeasuredandrecorded.
    riverineoodprotectionMeasurestakentoprotectar-
    easontheoodplainfromexperiencingaood,suchas
    oodproong,leveesandupstreamreservoiroodstorage
    capacity.
    robustnessAmeasureofhowwellasystem,strategyor
    decisionmayperformorfunctiongivenarangeofpossible
    inputs,notallofwhicharepredicted.
    runofSurfaceowfromlandareasduringandaftera
    stormorprecipitationevent.
    run-of-the-riverdamAreservoirthatiscreatedbyadam
    andwhosestoragevolumeismaintainedataconstantvalue,
    sothattheinowequalstheoutowlessanylosses.
    ruralzoningLanduseanddevelopmentthatisrestricted
    toruralusesandactivities.
    saltwaterintrusionTheinltrationorowofsaltwaterinto
    freshsurfaceorgroundwaterbodies.
    sanitationTheprovisionofinfrastructure,facilitiesand
    servicesforthesafedisposalofhumanurineandfaeces.
    Inadequatesanitationisamajorcauseofdiseaseworldwide.
    scenarioAnaccountorsynopsisofaprojectedcourseof
    action,eventorsituation.Scenariodevelopmentisusedin
    policyplanning,organizationaldevelopmentandgenerally,
    whenorganisationswishtoteststrategiesagainstuncertain
    futuredevelopments.
    sectoralwaterefciency(SWE)Measure(ratio)ofef-
    ciencybasedoninputsandoutputs.
    377 WWDR4 GLOSSARY
    378
    diferentphasesofproductiontodeliverytonalconsumers
    anddisposalafteruse.
    virtual(embedded)waterThewaterusedintheproduc-
    tionofagoodorservice.
    vulnerabilityDegreetowhichpeople,property,resources,
    systemsandcultural,economic,environmentalandsocialac-
    tivityissusceptibletoundesiredoutcomes,harm,degrada-
    tionordestruction.
    wadiTheArabictermtraditionallyreferringtoavalley.
    wastewaterAnywaterthathasbeenadverselyafectedin
    qualitybyhumaninuence.
    wateraccountingKeepingtrackofthewaterresourcesin
    ariverbasin,indicatingwherewaterisgoing,howitisbeing
    used,andhowmuchremainsavailableforfurtheruse.
    waterallocationsystemInstitutionalstructureforallocat-
    ingwater.Thechoiceofstructureisultimatelyacompromise
    betweenthephysicalnatureoftheresource,humanreac-
    tionstopolicies,andcompetingsocialobjectives.
    waterbalance(inindustry)Adescriptionoftheowof
    waterinandoutofanindustrialsystem.
    waterbankAninstitutionalmechanismusedtofacilitate
    thelegaltransferandmarketexchangeofvarioustypesof
    surfacewater,groundwaterandwaterstorageentitlements.
    waterboxThecollectionofactivitiesandorganizations
    thatassess,developandmanagewaterresources.Thisis
    incontrasttothosewhomakedecisionsintheirrespective
    economicsectorsthathaveimpactsonthedecisionsandop-
    tionsofthosewithinthewaterbox.
    waterconservationThereductionoftheusageofwater
    andrecyclingofwastewaterfordiferentpurposessuchas
    cleaning,manufacturingandagriculturalirrigation.
    waterconveyanceThetransportofwaterfromoneplace
    toanother,suchasinacanal,pipelineoraqueduct.
    waterdemandmanagementMeasurestakentoalterthe
    demandforwater,asopposedtosupplymanagementmeas-
    uresthatattempttomeetthedemands.
    waterdevelopmentagendaAcomprehensiveblueprintof
    actiontobetakenbyorganizationsandmajorgroupswithre-
    specttowaterdevelopmentthatcanimpactonhumanwelfare.
    waterdialoguespaceAspacethatallowsindividualswith-
    inmultistakeholdergroupstoresolverealbutneutralprob-
    lemsandtherebybuildtrustandmutualrespect.
    waterdistributionThepercentagesofvolumesoffresh
    andsalinewater,bothonandunderthesurfaceoftheEarth.
    Alternatively,thetransportofwatersuppliesfromwater
    treatmentplantstoparticularwaterusersinanurbanarea.
    waterdiversionThewithdrawalandtransportofwater
    fromoneplace(i.e.fromanaturalwaterbody)toanother
    place(ofuse)typicallyviaacanalorpipeline.
    waterefciencyTheaccomplishmentofafunction,task,
    processorresultwiththeminimalamountofwaterfeasible.
    Itfocusesonreducingwaste.
    waterentitlementsTherighttoobtainwaterestablished
    byapportionmentinstitutions.Insomeplaces,waterentitle-
    mentsaregrantedbythestateandconstituteaninformal
    surfacewaterWaterlocatedonthesurfaceoftheEarth,
    suchasinstreams,rivers,lakes,seasandoceans.
    surprise(inasystem)Systembehaviourorperformance
    thatisnotexpectedorforeseen.
    sustainability,sustainabledevelopmentThecapacityto
    endure.Thelong-termmaintenanceofenvironmental,eco-
    nomicandsocialaspectssuchthatthequalityoflifeisim-
    provedovertime.
    sustainablelandmanagement(SLM)Managinglandforpro-
    ductivityinagricultureandforestrywhileprovidingenviron-
    mentalprotectionandecosystemservicesandtakingintoac-
    countdemographicgrowthandincreasingpressureinlanduse.
    sustainablewatermanagementTheuseofwaterthatsup-
    portstheabilityofhumansocietytoendureandourishinto
    theindenitefuturewithoutunderminingtheintegrityofthe
    hydrologicalcycleortheecologicalsystemsthatdependon
    it.
    TARWR(totalactualrenewablewaterresources)Thethe-
    oreticalmaximumannualvolumeofwaterresourcesavail-
    ableonasustainablebasisinacountry.
    technocraticknowledgeAnykindofmanagementorad-
    ministrationbyspecializedexpertsselectedthroughbureau-
    craticprocessesonthebasisofspecializedknowledgeand
    performance,ratherthandemocraticelection.
    teleconnectionsLinksamongworldclimateanomalies.
    Teleconnectionpatternreferstoarecurringandpersistent
    large-scalepatternofpressureandcirculationanomaliesthat
    spanvastgeographicalareas.
    tippingpointThepointatwhichaslow,reversiblechange
    becomesirreversible,oftenwithdramaticconsequences.
    top-downapproachAnapproachtodecision-making
    whereanexecutive,decision-makerorotherpersonorbody
    makesadecision.Thisapproachisdisseminatedundertheir
    authoritytolowerlevelsinthehierarchy,whoare,toagreat-
    erorlesserextent,boundbythem.
    transboundarybasin,aquiferAriverbasinorgroundwa-
    teraquiferthatspansmultiplepoliticalentities,separatedby
    boundaries.
    trialogueapproachLinksscience,governmentandsociety.
    unaccounted-forwater(UfW)Waterthathasbeenpro-
    ducedandislostbeforeitreachesthecustomer.
    uncertaintyLackofsurenessaboutsomething.Uncertainty
    mayrangefromafallingshortofcertaintytoanalmostcom-
    pletelackofconvictionorknowledge,especiallyaboutan
    outcomeorresult.
    urbanandperi-urbanagriculture(UPA)Thepracticeof
    cultivating,processinganddistributingfoodin,oraround,a
    village,townorcity.Itcaninvolveanimalhusbandry,aqua-
    culture,agro-forestryandhorticulture.
    urbanizationThephysicalgrowthofurbanareasasare-
    sultofglobalchange.Urbanizationcanrepresentthelevelof
    urbanrelativetooverallpopulation,oritcanrepresentthe
    rateatwhichtheurbanproportionisincreasing.
    valuechain(agriculture,food)Thefullrangeofactivi-
    ties,withmaximumgenerationofvalue,thatarerequiredto
    bringaproduct(oraservice)fromconceptionthroughthe
    378
    WWDR4 379
    watersecurityTheavailabilityofareliableandsecureac-
    cesstowaterovertime.
    watersectorCommonlyreferstoallactivities,tradeand
    professionalorganizationsandindividualsinvolvedwith
    providingdrinkingwaterandwastewaterservices(including
    wastewatertreatment)toresidential,commercialandindus-
    trialsectorsoftheeconomy.
    waterservicemanagement,delivery,controlAwater
    servicecontrolsystemincludesanundergroundwatermain,
    atleastonewaterconsumerstationdownstreamfromthe
    watermain,andanundergroundwaterdeliverychanneland
    valvesthatcontroltheowfromthewatermaintothewater
    consumer.
    waterstorageAtermusedwithinagriculturetodenelo-
    cationswherewaterisstoredforlateruse.
    waterstressThesymptomaticconsequenceofwaterscar-
    city(physicaloreconomic),whichmaymanifestitselfas
    increasingconictoversectoralusage,adeclineinservice
    levels,cropfailure,foodinsecurityandsoforth.Itisoften
    measuredbytheextentofthediferencebetweensupply
    anddemand.
    watersupplyandsanitation(WSS)Servicestypicallypro-
    videdbywaterutilitiestoprovidethequantitiesandquali-
    tiesofwaterwhereandwhendemanded,andtoprovidethe
    meansofwastewatercollection,treatmentanddisposal.
    watercourseAnyowingbodyofwater.
    water-derivedbenetEconomic,ecologicalorsocialben-
    etobtainedduetotheparticularuseormanagementof
    water.
    water-relatedhazardHumanhealth,economicorsocial
    hazardresultingduetotheexcess,shortageorpollutionof
    water.
    watershedTheareaoflandwhereallofthewaterthatis
    underitordrainsofitgoesintothesameplace.Healthy
    watershedsprovideahostofservices,includingwaterpu-
    rication,groundwaterandsurfaceowregulation,erosion
    controlandstreambankstabilization.
    wetlandAnareaofgroundthatissaturatedwithwater
    eitherpermanentlyorseasonally(swamp,marsh,peatland,
    shallowlake).
    willingnesstopay(WTP)Themaximumamountaper-
    sonwouldbewillingtopay,sacriceorexchangeinorder
    toreceiveagoodortoavoidsomethingundesired,suchas
    pollution.
    withdrawalTheremovalofwaterfromsometypeof
    source,suchasgroundwater,forsomeusebyhumans.The
    waterthatisnotconsumedissubsequentlyreturnedtothe
    environmentafteruse,butthequalityofthereturnedwater
    maynotbethesameaswhenitwasremoved.Withdrawn
    watercanbeused(suchasforcooling)withoutbeing
    consumed.
    yellowwaterSanitarywastewatercontainingonlyurine.
    contractbetweenthestateandlicence-holders.Inother,
    waterentitlementsconstituteaformalpropertyrightwith
    judicialenforcement.Whetherformalorinformal,thecon-
    tractualnatureofwaterentitlementsaddstothecostofin-
    stitutionalchange.
    waterfootprintThetotalvolumeoffreshwaterusedto
    producethegoodsandservicesconsumedbyanindividual
    orcommunityorproducedbyabusiness.Thedirectwater
    footprintofaconsumerorproducer(oragroupofconsum-
    ersorproducers)referstothefreshwaterconsumptionand
    pollutionthatisassociatedtothewaterusebytheconsumer
    orproducer.Itisdistinctfromtheindirectwaterfootprint,
    whichreferstothewaterconsumptionandpollutionthat
    canbeassociatedwiththeproductionofthegoodsandser-
    vicesconsumedbytheconsumerortheinputsusedbythe
    producer.Thegreywaterfootprintofaproductisanindica-
    toroffreshwaterpollutionthatcanbeassociatedwiththe
    productionofaproductoveritsfullsupplychain.Itisthe
    volumeoffreshwaterthatisrequiredtoassimilatetheload
    ofpollutantsbasedonexistingambientwaterqualitystand-
    ards,calculatedasthevolumeofwaterthatisrequiredtodi-
    lutepollutantstosuchanextentthatthequalityofthewater
    remainsaboveagreedwaterqualitystandards.
    waterharvestingActivitiessuchasforestcondensation,
    fogharvesting,cloudseeding(thedispersalofsubstances
    intotheairthatserveascloudcondensationoricenuclei,
    whichalterthemicrophysicalprocesseswithinthecloud)
    anddirectcollectionofrainwaterrelatedtotheincreaseand
    captureofprecipitationtosupplementwatersupplies.
    waterinfrastructurePhysicalandorganizationalstructures
    neededtoprovidethewaterquantitiesandqualitiesde-
    mandedbyvariouswaterusers.
    watermarketTheabilitytobuy,sellorleasewaterrights,
    inwholeorinpart,fromonelegalentitytoanotherand
    whichinvolvesanexchangeofamonetaryvalue.
    waterproductivityTheratioofgoodsandservicespro-
    ducedoverthevolumeofwaterrequiredfortheirproduc-
    tion;measurestheefcientuseofwater.
    waterqualityThephysical,chemicalandbiologicalchar-
    acteristicsofwater.Itisameasureoftheconditionofwater
    relativetotherequirementsofoneormorebioticspecies
    andortoanyhumanneedorpurpose.
    waterreallocationThetransferofwaterfromoneuseto
    another.
    waterreformMeasurestakentochangecurrentwater
    managementpracticestoprovideincreasedbenetstowa-
    terusersandtheenvironment,typicallycouchedinterms
    ofreducingifnotremovinginefciencies,corruptionand
    incompetence.
    waterrenewabilityTheabilityofwatertobereplaced
    throughbiological,physicalorothernaturalprocessesand
    replenishedwiththepassageoftime.Waterisrenewable
    throughtheprocessofthehydrologicalcycle.
    waterresourcesmanagementTheactivityofplanning,de-
    veloping,distributingandmanagingthesupplyanduseof
    waterresources.Thedevelopmentanduseofstructuraland
    non-structuralmeasurestoprovideandcontrolnaturaland
    human-madewaterresourcessystemsforbenecialuses.
    379 WWDR4 GLOSSARY
    380
    ThepurposeofthisglossaryistoserveasareferenceforreadersoftheUnitedNations World Water Development Report 4.
    Denitionsmightdifersomewhatfromthoseusedinotherpublications,andtheydonotrepresentofcialdenitionsoftheUN,
    UN-Water,orcontributorstotheWWDR4.
    TheglossarywaspreparedunderthecoordinationofDanielP.Loucks,ContributingLeadAuthor(Part2).
    Thisglossarydraws,sometimesdirectly,onmaterialavailableonthefollowingwebsites:
    http://actionaidusa.orghttp://answers.yahoo.comhttp://dictionary.cambridge.orghttp://dictionary.com
    http://dictionary.reverso.nethttp://en.wikipedia.orghttp://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.comhttp://nsidc.org
    http://orf.od.nih.govhttp://science.nasa.gov/earth-sciencehttp://thinkquest.orghttp://waterwiki.net
    http://wiki.answers.comwww.merriam-webster.comwww.Africanwater.orgwww.alcwin.orgwww.answers.com
    www.awwa.orgwww.businessdictionary.comwww.cees.iupui.eduwww.cglrc.cgiar.orgwww.cleanenergyprinciples.com
    www.corix.comwww.cpc.noaa.govwww.csiro.auwww.dainet.comwww.ecosystemvaluation.orgwww.ecy.wa.gov
    www.eoearth.orgwww.epa.govwww.ess.uci.eduwww.euroscience.orgwww.exclusion.netwww.fao.org
    www.fema.govwww.greenfacts.orgwww.homelandsecuritynewswire.comwww.icpdr.orgwww.investopedia.com
    www.kmci.orgwww.ldeo.columbia.eduwww.maweb.orgwww.mbdc.comwww.nationsonline.orgwww.noaa.gov
    www.nrdc.orgwww.ofwat.govwww.physicalgeography.netwww.ramsar.orgwww.science20.comwww.sswm.info
    www.thecommonsjournal.orgwww.thefreedictionary.comwww.ucowr.orgwww.un.orgwww.unccd.int
    www.unep.orgwww.unisdr.orgwww.usaid.govwww.waterdialogues.orgwww.webopedia.comwww.who.org
    www.worldbank.orgwww.wri.orgwww.wto.org.
    ItalsodrawsonPeak Water: Conceptual and Practical Limits to Freshwater Withdrawal and UsebyP.H.Gleickand
    M.Palaniappan(2010);The New Slum DwellersbyM.Davis(2006);theMacmillanDictionary;and
    http://www.ce.utexas.edu/prof/mckinney/papers/aral/Aral.pdf.
    380
    INDEX
    WWDR4 INDEX xiii
    acidrain,40,59,403,407,415
    adaptivewatermanagement,13,15,31,14041,148,150,263,
    289300,327,329,330,359,394,396,586,596,597
    andclimatechange,141
    anddemographicchanges,141
    advanceddecisionsupportsystems,395
    Afghanistan
    IndusRiverbasin,821
    Aajirrigationsystems,142,569
    Africa,63854,674,714,715,730780,71484
    climatechangeimpacts,171,178,182,184,31519
    demographicchange,177,178
    deserticationanddrought,121,178
    oods,178
    foodsecurity,5,86,180
    groundwaterabstraction,86,182
    hydropower,32
    investmentinwatersupplyandsanitation,181
    landaquisitions,217
    MDGtargets,640,652
    paymentforecosystemservices,632
    waterinstitutions,143
    AfricaStrategicInitiative,EU,650
    AfricaWaterAtlas,180,183
    AfricaWaterVision2025,177,649,653
    AfricaWaterWeek,184,649,650
    AfricanDevelopmentBank,183,643,649,650,651,652
    AfricanMinistersCouncilonWater,149,175,180,183,184,643,649,
    650,651,652
    AfricanUnion,159,177,183,184,643,649,650,652
    Sharmel-SheikhSummit,649
    SummitofHeadsofStateonWaterandSanitation,184
    AfricanWaterDevelopmentReport,651
    AfricanWaterFacility,183,650,652
    AfricanWaterVision,643,650,651,653
    AfricaSan,649
    Agenda21,38,see alsoUNCSD(UNConferenceonSustainable
    Development)
    agriculture,2425,105
    biofuels,26,140,180,203,454,666,71516
    competitionforwater,105,194,446,457
    deforestation,49,105,113,730
    greenhousegasesfrom,452,457
    IWRM,138,139
    landdegradationanddrought,120,61637
    livestock,26,49,44062
    organic,345
    pesticides,187,414
    populationgrowth,25
    rainfed,46,47,49,123,152,17880,212,217,247,253,261,
    262,269,448452,457,458,494,520,573,604,605,
    611,626,635,714,747,748,753,784
    wastewateruse,105,214,719
    waterpollutantsfrom,3,9,16,25,48,50,51,66,96,105,
    112,122,138,163,187189,210,216,262,269,271,273,
    34546,40414,43435,447,45459,461,494,510,
    511,540,546,574,630,656,65966,712,795,816,
    824,829,840,844,850
    waterwithdrawalsfor,24,187,719
    waterbornediseases,725,730
    agrochemicals,9,187
    AkosomboDam,781,784
    AlbufeiraConvention,844
    algae,26,70,106,188,336,477,733,811
    photobioreactors,26
    Algeria,210,214,218,318,647,709,712,714,719,720,799
    drought,212
    allocationmechanisms,35,144,273,286,387,518,519,522,526,571
    AmazonRiverbasin,113,200,239,398,505,511,694,697,700
    deforestation,113,511
    hydroelectricity,201
    Angola,419,646
    aquiferrecharge,28,350,454,540,718,719,765
    inArabregion,214
    aquifers,transboundary,31,32,136,185,192,658,757,758,762,
    76668
    bilateralandmultilateralcooperation,185
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,207
    ArabCountriesWaterUtilitiesAssociation,213,709,716
    ArabMinisterialDeclarationonClimateChange,214,715,718
    ArabMinisterialWaterCouncil,207,213,708,709
    ArabWaterSecurityStrategy,207,213,708,712,716
    ArabianPeninsula,48
    AralSea,122,135,192,633,662,665,674,678
    InternationalFundforSavingtheAralSea,188
    ArcticOscillation(AO),83
    Argentina,123,146,198,20102,206,207,319,385,425,695,700
    703,767
    climatechangeimpacts,92
    Guaraniaquifer,350
    AridityIndex,120,623
    Armenia,186,191,657,665,667,676,679
    paymentforecosystemservices,663
    arsenic,103,407,410,663,725,727,736,765
    AsianDevelopmentBank,584,591,676,683,685,687,824
    Asia-Pacicregion,9,67191
    foodsecurity,5
    groundwaterabstraction,5,86
    integratedwaterresourcesmanagement(IWRM),197,684
    landdegradationanddrought,121
    paymentforecosystemservices,197,684
    populationgrowth,64
    urbanwaterquality,195
    vulnerabilitytonaturaldisasters,9,196
    Aswandam,214,278,397,529,714,718,720
    AtlanticMultidecadalOscillation(AMO),81,383,766,849
    AtlanticOcean,643,660,661,780,799,843,848
    Australia,8038
    droughtandwaterstress,121,164,404,645
    oods,219,241
    greentechnology,198
    IWRM,139
    NationalWaterInitiative,69,164
    urbanwatersupply,397
    wateraccounting,172
    waterconsumption,121
    Austria,827
    oodmanagement,663
    Autovias,350
    backcasting,244,245
    Bangladesh,93,106,116,194,304,448,568,584,586,606,613,676,
    679,681,682,685,760
    foodsecurity,195
    groundwaterabstraction,85
    Barbados,202,353,694
    BaselConvention,61,407,414,485
    basinmanagementcommittees,149,150,627
    andIWRM,149
    BeasRiver,821
    BeijingDeclarationandPlatformforAction,110,752
    xiv
    waterbornediseases,726,751
    Chile,55,66,198,202,203,205,206,207,220,301,319,320,385,
    408,542,692,694,695,698,699,700,701,703
    biofuels,203
    climatechangeimpacts,92
    demographicchange,201
    drylands,398
    nancingwatersupplyandsanitationservices,205
    hydroelectricity,201
    mining,201,203
    privatizationofwaterassets,146
    urbanwatersupply,198
    wastewatertreatment,201
    waterconicts,203
    watermanagementreforms,206
    ChilikaLake,415
    China,27,46,56,93,112,113,145,192,194,196,197,217,218,252,270,
    279,301,318,331,386,388,407,408,412,413,417,430,434,443,
    453,459,460,473,475,482,485,486,520,529,546,554,559,
    570,633,665,678,679,680,681,682,720,759,760,762,763,
    809,810,811,812,81013,821
    climatechange,122
    ethanolandbiodieselproduction,218
    foodsecurity,195
    greentechnology,197
    groundwaterabstraction,85
    IndusRiverbasin,821
    landdegradationanddrought,113,120,121,126
    naturaldisasters,413
    waterconicts,194
    waterefciency,349
    waterinstitutions,143
    cholera,64,103,104,105,106,107,118,179,183,409,537,732,733,
    783,784,831
    cleantechnology,95,96,311,402,407,411
    climatechange,2,5,2931,38385,see alsoIntergovernmental
    PanelonClimateChange(IPCC)andUNFCCC
    adaptivewatermanagement,29,141
    Africa,184,397
    agriculture,25
    IWRM,139,145
    Arabregion,212,214
    Asia-Pacic,197,243,397
    deforestation,30
    developingcountries,29
    energyimplications,25
    Europe,239
    glaciermelt,5,20
    greeneconomy,39
    greenhousegases,431,457
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,204
    mitigationstrategies,29,141,144,162,394
    NairobiWorkProgramme,3738
    naturaldisasters,27,94,187,218,252
    scenario-basedapproach,394
    UNFCCC(UNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange),3738
    vulnerabilityofwomen,454
    climateforcings,78,79,383,393
    Cochabamba,750
    ColoradoRiverbasin,113,389,392,393,396,397,472,523
    Columbia,395
    paymentforecosystemservices,632
    CommonAgriculturalPolicy,EU,300,663
    Comoros,715
    ComprehensiveAssessmentofWaterManagementinAgriculture,26,
    47,49,84,85,253,389,449,451,457
    foodsecurity,86
    CONAGUA,seeMexico
    ConferenceoftheParties,seeUNFCCC
    CongoRiverbasin,122,178,182,218,397,505,643,644,646,647,
    648
    ConferenceonEnvironmentandDevelopment,UN(RioEarth
    Summit),35,796
    Benin,182
    Bhutan,93,674,675,682,687
    oodrisks,94
    glacier-relatedoods,93
    urbanwaterquality,195
    biofuels,4,13,2326,32,46,50,5254,58,59,123,128,140,201,216,
    217,218,267,270,284,311,351,404,407,454,455,467477,520,
    521,666,694,715716,748,749,750
    algaeproduction,26
    Asia-Pacic,454
    Arabregion,211
    competitionwithfoodproduction,25,26,218
    EuropeanUnion,26,454
    kerosenesubstitute,749
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,201,203
    pollution,455
    sub-SaharanAfrica,454
    UnitedStatesofAmerica,454
    biologicaloxygendemand,406,457,459,505,712
    biomass,53,54,70,180,181,473,476
    Bolivia,204,207,319,695,698,700,750
    MinistryofWater,144
    Botswana,294,644,646
    malaria,118
    BrahmaputraRiverbasin,90,145,385,505
    dasBrancasRiver,337
    Brazil,46,49,123,198,200,202,206,207,253,279,301,320,337,
    350,398,407,443,460,512,536,554,557,692704,717,734,766,
    767
    agro-industries,213
    biofuels,50,201
    deforestation,457
    drought,204
    ethanolandbiodieselproduction,454,455
    extremeclimateevents,696
    greenhousegases,453
    groundwaterrecharge,87
    Guaraniaquifer,350
    IWRMandwatermanagementreforms,139,198,206,139
    WaterProducerProgramme,251
    WaterWomenproject,337
    BurkinaFaso,182,331,647,780
    Burundi,397
    Cambodia,192,312,428,676,679,682,685,686,687,750,751
    MekongRiverAgreement,72,506
    MekongRiverbasin,72,149,587
    DisasterRiskReductionForum,149,587
    Cameroon,182,563,647,712
    Canada,48,90,123,184,190,191,192,253,348,351,353,354,447,
    482,485,493,511,528,57577,578,658,660,661
    CanadaWaterAct,191
    irrigation,187
    waterinindustry,485
    watersupplyandsanitationservices,190
    waterwithdrawals,185
    CancunAdaptationFramework,37,see alsoUNFCCC
    capacity-buildingforIWRM,145,146,150,300,338,436,573,582
    96,682,716,718,see alsoadaptivewatermanagement
    ArabCountriesWaterUtilitiesAssociation,213
    tomeetMDGs,148
    inMekongbasin,149,506,587
    CapeVerde,182,647
    catchmentprotection,138,160,540,541,543
    CentralAfricanRepublic,647,712
    CentralAmerica
    CentralAsia,184,185,186,658,661,662,673,674
    Chad,122,182,210,419,644,647,648,712
    groundwaterwithdrawals,644
    chemicaloxygendemand,349,457
    ChenabRiver,821
    ChesapeakeBayProgram,414
    childmortality,5,103,110,160,265,584,751,752
    Africa,180
    Asia-Pacic,196
    xv WWDR4 INDEX
    disasterriskmanagement,94
    Disiaquifer,709
    Dniesterbasin,663
    drinkingwater,accessto,36,37,96,103,127,142,160,164,179,180,
    190,192,312,436,538,552,591,596,673,640,726
    Asia-Pacic,196
    globalrates,196
    drought,61637
    Arabregion,209,211,212
    Asia-Pacic,196,243,404
    Australia,121,404
    China,121
    climatechangeimpacts,27,645
    desertication,121
    Europe,218
    eutrophication,645
    India,121,243
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,204
    resilientcrops,25
    sub-SaharanAfrica,121,178,212,645
    NorthAmerica,189,393
    drylands,6,102,121,122,331,430,619,61637,620,621,622,623,
    626,627,628,629,630,631,632,633,634,635,636,637
    deforestation,631
    ecosystemservices,120
    foodinsecurityandfamine,122,631
    productivity,631
    earlywarningandemergencyresponsesystems,118,119
    EastKolkataWetlands,505
    eco-efcientwaterinfrastructure,197,686
    Asia-Pacic,682
    ecologicalsanitation,423,435
    ecosystems,24,6972,50214
    deforestation,629
    degradationof,27,97,188
    desertication,27
    ecosystemhealth,11015
    greeneconomy,39
    toxiccontamination,414
    wetlands,113,508
    ecosystemgoodsandservices,24,27,28,47,69,70,72,95,97,113,
    114,137,139,168,188,335,403,411
    indrylands,120
    andlanddegradationanddrought,120
    pricingmechanisms,168
    Ecosystem-BasedManagementToolsNetwork,512
    Egypt,210,211,214,216,397,497,529,596,644,708,709,711,712,
    714,715,716,717,718,719,720,747
    agro-industries,213
    conict,209,210
    foodsecurity,218
    groundwaterwithdrawals,644
    transboundarywaters,181
    urbanization,208
    waterinstitutions,213
    ElNio-SouthernOscillation(ENSO),7883,118,184,203,204,261,
    278,314,352,383,392,393,394,643,649,696,698,700,702,
    766,849
    embeddedwater,seevirtualwater
    endocrinedisruptivecompounds,411,765
    energy,24,2526,46578
    biofuels,26,140,180
    consumption,180
    fordesalination,25
    freshwaterwithdrawalsfor,25
    globalenergyconsumption,25
    healthimpacts,26
    hydroelectricity,24,25
    nuclearelectricity,25
    solar,25
    thermalpowerplants,140
    forwastewatertreatment,25
    energysecurity,28,39,138,351,475,522,555,675,715
    ConferenceonSustainableDevelopment,UN(UNCSD),23,39
    Rio+20(UNCSD2012),20,35,39,358,796
    ConventiononBiologicalDiversity,508,796,see alsoUNCSD
    ConventiononBiologicalDiversityBiodiversity,508
    ConventionontheEliminationofAllFormsofDiscriminationagainst
    Women,110,752
    ConventionontheLawoftheNon-navigationalUsesofInternational
    Watercourses,32
    ConventionontheProtectionandUseofTrans-boundary
    WatercoursesandInternationalLakes,32
    CopenhagenConsensus,537
    costbenetanalysis,145
    costrecovery,14,97,145,160,318,322,407,419,437,557,558,559,
    560,561,563,564,573,750,801,817
    CostaRica,279,701,853,854,855,857,858,85358,860
    demographicchange,201
    paymentforecosystemservices,632,856,858
    waterasahumanright,856
    CtedIvoire,182,780
    Cuba
    demographicchange,200
    nancingwatersupplyandsanitationservices,205
    organicagriculture,345
    populationgrowth,696
    ProgramaNacionaldeAgriculturaUrbana,345
    cyanobacteria,413
    cyclones,9,81,116,117,118,196,601,602,605,606,608,610,611,682,
    714
    CzechRepublic,614,82629
    oodmanagement,663
    DahklaBasin,644
    DanubeRiverbasin,188,189,190,192,511,543,658,663,667,827
    ConventiononCo-operationfortheProtectionandSustainable
    UseoftheRiverDanube,31
    oods,662
    hydropower,188
    decadal-scalevariability,393,394
    deforestation,49,105,113,118,121,190,218,262,263,269,271,346,
    457,504,633,645,730,783,795,855
    Amazonbasin,113,511
    Brazil,457
    China,812
    climatechange,30,113,698
    eutrophication,413
    oods,662
    greenhousegases,30,49,457,698
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,204
    watersecurity,511,629,631
    waterbornediseases,725
    demographicchange,4,45,52,66,111,140,141,162,183,193,200,
    221,233,264,265,269,272,330,385,388,424,433,450,451,485,
    568,606,635,659,677,692,696,708,714,795,865
    Africa,177
    Arabregion,209
    Asia-Pacic,243
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,198,200,201
    Denmark,151,458
    desalination,4,14,25,28,52,57,58,59,160,209,214,241,261,262,
    263,264,265,270,293,317,433,467,471,475,477,539,540,545,
    623,631,708,709,710,719,801
    Arabregion,209,214
    desertecosystemservices,254
    desertication,6,19,20,23,27,102,119122,253,254,546,608,616
    37,647,648,714,719,795,800,838
    Africa,121,216
    Arabregion,212
    diarrhoea,29,95,103,104,105,106,123,148,179,265,537,663,674,
    682,725,727,728,732,734,736,751,802,824
    disasterrecoveryandreconstruction,11819
    capacity-buildingfor,119
    earlywarningsystems,118
    nancing,119
    genderequality,119
    xvi
    gendermainstreaming
    disasterrecoveryandreconstruction(DRR),119
    generalcirculationmodels,392,394,396
    Georgia,186,191,334,657,658,665,667,675,682,848,850
    Germany,314,319,390,432,434,435,482,593,595,596,631,667,
    808,827
    oodmanagement,663
    Ghana,182,537,717,735,749,777,780,782,783,784,77984
    AkosomboDam,781,784
    hydropower,781,784
    NationalWaterPolicy,781
    VoltaRiverbasin,781
    watergovernancereforms,144
    waterwithdrawals,781
    glaciers,5,20,78,80,83,89,90,93,8994,190,385,454,505,681,
    700,822
    glaciermelt,92,93
    glacier-relatedoods,90,93
    LatinAmerica,204
    Peru,398
    GlobalAnalysisandAssessmentofSanitationandDrinking-Water
    (GLAAS),seeWHO/UN-Water
    GlobalBiodiversityOutlook,111,508
    GlobalClimateObservationSystem,172
    GlobalCompact,UN,169,170,493,495
    GlobalEnvironmentFacility(GEF),497,749,762,767,796
    SmallGrantsProgramme,749
    GlobalEnvironmentMonitoringSystem,98
    GlobalEnvironmentOutlook,111,508
    globalwarming,seeclimatechange
    GlobalWaterPartnership(GWP),138,146,220,299,333,414,455,
    572,649,650,655,662,678,679,761,858
    GlobalWaterSystemProject(GWSP),171,172,593
    globalization,7,18,3335,34,414,see alsovirtualwater
    tradeinagriculturalproducts,29
    andIWRM,139
    Asia-Pacic,243
    foreigninvestmentprotection,18,34
    impactonmarginalized,18
    governmenttransfers,546,561
    GRATISFoundation,749
    GravityRecoveryandClimateExperiment(GRACE),87,90,91,758,
    763
    GreatLakes,658
    climatechangeimpacts,190
    GreatLakesWaterQualityAgreement,31
    InternationalJointCommission,665
    Greece,435,659
    wateruseforagriculture,187
    greeneconomy,21,28,39,61,127,271,310,311,321,555,556,565
    urbanization,39
    greentechnology,197,198,496,556,686
    Asia-Pacic,198
    China,197
    greenwatercredits,632
    greenhousegases,30,49,50,113,128,181,218,238,245,249,263,
    272,311,321,331,350,388,430,431,448,452,455,457474,666,
    698,766,800,806,855
    deforestation,30,698
    agriculture,49,452,453,457
    emissionsreduction,30,698
    globalGHGemissions,698
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,698
    Methane,311,452,453
    Nitrousoxide,452,453
    groundwater,78,8389,75673,see alsoaquifers
    climatechangemitigation,5
    foodsecurity,5,86
    fossilgroundwaterreserves,48
    non-renewable,85,86,87,799
    pollutionof,5
    renewablegroundwaterresources,48
    environmentalow,71,505,632,788,833,840
    evapotranspiration,71
    environmentallegislation,185,656
    EnvironmentalProtectionAgency,US(EPA),106,188,331,432,782,
    784,851
    Ethiopia,119,182,216,397,408,419,529,648,649,717,718
    agro-industries,213
    Europe,65568
    EUUrbanWaterDirective,435
    EU-AfricaStrategicInitiative,650
    EUtargetforbiofuels,26
    waterconsumption,121
    eutrophication,66,95,96,140,168,171,210,402,405,406,413,415,
    418,540,572,630,645,659,712,844
    evapotranspiration,29,55,71,80,113,120,170,254,383,386,388,
    457,458,623,808,815
    extremeweatherevents,119
    famine,117,120,249,314,354,605,631,635,645,647,714,863
    farming,seeagriculture
    fertilizers,25,50,96,112,122,187,210,216,269,273,346,407,409,
    413,434,454,455,510,511,540,546,574,659,660,663,712,717,
    816,824,829,840,844,850
    nance
    disasterrecoveryandreconstruction(DRR),118119
    publicprivatepartnerships,563,564
    occulants,726
    oods
    Africa,397
    Arabregion,212,214
    Asia-Pacic,196,243
    Australia,219,241
    climatechange,27
    damageassessment,242,662
    defencesystems,28,115,162,185,188,233,241,242,296,297,304,
    663,812,828,844
    economiccosts,662
    Europe,662
    managementof,28,30,188,190,252,330,539,659,663,844
    MekongFloodForum,149,506,587
    NorthAmerica,248
    owregulationofrivers,160,510
    uorosis,94,408,725
    foodproduction,2425,see alsoagriculture
    Africa,26
    changingdiets,25
    economicopportunities,25
    populationgrowth,25
    foodsecurity
    Arabregion,211,212
    climatechangeimpacts,180
    groundwater,5
    landdegradationanddrought,120,61637
    sub-SaharanAfrica,86,122,180,184
    FormerSovietUnion,453,569
    France,221,251,314,435,472,508,584,602,663,808,83034
    oodmanagement,663
    oods,662
    paymentforecosystemservices,508
    G8WaterActionPlan,35
    Gangesbasin,90,167,385,395,505,686
    genderequality,26,10910,584,676,74255,856
    Asia-Pacic,196
    BeijingDeclarationandPlatformforAction,110
    ConventionontheEliminationofAllFormsofDiscrimination
    againstWomen,110,676
    healthandsanitation,75152
    improvingdisasterresilience,28,119
    landandwaterrights,26,28,119
    MDG3,36
    policies,119
    sex-disaggregateddata,676
    UNESCOglobalpriority,110
    womensempowerment,196,74245,749,75455
    xvii WWDR4 INDEX
    greenhousegases,453
    groundwaterabstraction,85,86
    IndusRiverbasin,821
    IndusWaterTreaty,32,821
    landdegradationanddrought,121,126,243
    LowerBhavaniProject,152
    PermanentIndusCommission,821
    waterefciency,349
    watergovernancereforms,144
    wetlandsforwastewatertreatment,505
    Indonesia,218,280,428,435,485,578,674,676,679,682,684,750
    foodsecurity,195
    groundwaterabstraction,85
    paymentforecosystemservices,197,684
    urbanwaterquality,195
    Indusbasin,90,93,113,194,219,445,505,762,820825
    IndusWaterTreaty,32,821822
    climatechangeimpacts,821
    PermanentIndusCommission,821
    precipitation,821
    industrialwastewater,62,96,418,430,48098,661,680,829,844
    infrastructure,550
    dams,140
    eco-efcientwaterinfrastructure,136,197,682,686
    investmentsin,122,136
    urbandrainagesystems,140
    institutionalchange,56779
    integratedwaterresourcesmanagement(IWRM),6,13,21,24,38,39,
    71,135,137,13841,144,148150,159,177,207,213,242,251,290
    99,313,358,360,452,513,514,542,593,594,601,616,645,651,
    652,67779,684,687,688,695,716,717,761,856,86465
    adaptivewatermanagement,139,140,148,149,150,263,289300,
    506,587,601,645,651,652,678
    Arabregion,213
    Asia-Pacic,197
    basinmanagementcommittees,149
    climatechange,140,144,145
    economicdevelopment,139
    environmentalow,71
    institutionalreform,137,139
    JohannesburgPlanofImplementation,39
    nationalIWRMplans,139,144,148,150
    Rio+20,2012,39
    riskmitigation,135
    stakeholderengagement,138,139,144,145,149
    transboundaryplans,72,144,506
    waterinstitutions,144,145
    WSSDtarget,38
    integratedwaterresourcesoptimizationmodels,328
    intensiveagriculture,96,606,622,675
    Inter-AgencyGrouponWaterinAfrica,seeUN-Water
    Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,202,735
    IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),29,37,116,117,
    118,182,187,190,203,204,214,216,218,314,316,346,383,384,
    385,404,431,487,511,512,552,681,702,718,766,822,838
    modellingscenarios,87
    scenarios,30
    internationalbasins,seetransboundarywaters
    InternationalCentreforIntegratedMountainDevelopment,574
    InternationalDevelopmentResearchCentre,590
    InternationalMonetaryFund,218
    internationalriverbasins,seetransboundarywaters
    InternationalSharedAquiferResourcesManagement(ISARM),31,32,
    762,767
    InternationalWaterAssociation(IWA),591
    CitiesoftheFutureprogramme,68
    invasivespecies,67,96,415
    Iran,675,682,710,712,713,760,762,821
    groundwaterabstraction,85
    Ireland,435
    irrigation,144
    Africa,180,182
    groundwaterabstraction,5,66,83,84,85,86,88,89,665,759,760,
    762,763,764,769,794,801,806,816,822
    globalrate,5,85
    groundwaterrecharge,85,87,89,135,171,212,261,269,281,383,396,
    448,470,613,623,629,683,688,713,720,758,760,761,765,766,
    781,782,806,808,817
    Brazil,87
    climatechangeimpact,87
    globalrate,87
    groundwaterstorage,4,51,87,88,89,462,526,757,758,762,763,
    765,766
    globaltotal,87
    groundwater-fedirrigation,86
    Guaraniaquifer,207,350
    Guinea,182,543,644,647,674,675,682,712,780
    Gujarat,India,337
    Harmattan,643
    health,24,102,1039,72341
    Cuba,345
    wastewatertreatment,336
    waterquality,9498
    impactassessments,108,729
    Himalayas,90,93,574,578,687
    glaciermelt,90,91,92,93
    HIV/AIDS,148,264,409,590
    HumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI),39,621
    humanrighttowater,35,3435,36,108,142,215,220,266,274,485,
    490,518,519,52122,592,626,737,751
    CostaRica,856
    HumanRightsCouncil,UnitedNations(HRC),35,36,142,215,623,
    737,751
    HumanValues-BasedApproachtoWater,SanitationandHygiene
    Education,69
    hydroelectricity,8,24,55,180,294,472,524,535,539,541,692,694,
    781,838,855,858
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,201
    hydro-geologicaldatasets,183
    hydrologicalcycle,24,27,35,60,69,7883,111,112,135,159,218,237,
    240,24925053,260,262,278,279,285,350,383,388,392,403,
    404,428,431,433,435,436,474,482,484,504,505,508,511,518,
    584,593,659,672,680,758,759,769
    climatechangeimpacts,18,29,30,31,40,78,249,519
    contaminants,60,383,758
    GlobalClimateObservationSystem,172
    impactofgreenhousegasemissionss,49
    impactsofclimatechange,29,39,11015,188,403
    observationandmonitoring,78
    pressureson,18,19,60,231,431,433,758
    hydrologicalextremes,183,261,388
    hydrometmeasuring,8,168
    hydropower,8,25,32,46,53,54,55,59,72,113,137,160,180,181,185,
    189,190,237,242,248,249,250,254,278,311,318,346,390,393,
    394,407,445,472,524,529,540,656,662,663,665,666,681,
    687,735,784,823,838,840,855,857
    DanubeRiverbasin,189
    Africa,182,184
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,207
    InterAgencyGrouponWater,652
    improvedsanitation,37,65,95,105,142,160,164,179,192,280,407,
    426,663,672,673,674,725,728,733,734,735,783,784,795,802,
    856
    Asia-Pacic,196
    globalaccessto,196
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,205
    MDG7c,3637,96,103,127,142,164,180,190,192,205,436,437,
    591,596,640
    India,46,48,56,91,93,94,113,126,145,170,192,194,196,216,219,
    279,301,333,334,337,347,351,385,386,388,395,396,407,408,
    412,425,430,434,443,447,448,482,485,486,505,520,525,
    527,536,542,545,559,563,621,633,676,678,680,681,682,683,
    686,688,727,728,734,745,759,763
    climatechangeimpacts,122,194
    oods,119,194,574
    xviii
    conicts,209
    urbanization,208
    waterinstitutions,213
    LermaChapalaRiverbasin,521,86165
    Lesotho,149,182,646
    levees,28,115,304
    Liberia,419
    Libya,184,210,218,644,647,709,712,720
    conicts,209
    groundwaterwithdrawals,644
    Luxembourg,435
    lymphaticlariasis,103,105,106,730,732,736,783
    Madagascar,182,216,717
    malaria,105,106,730
    Malawi,119,182,746
    disasterresponse,119
    Malaysia,195,218,674,679,682,686
    ecosystemhealth,114
    MaraRiverbasin,78690
    paymentforecosystemservices,790
    MarseilleProvenceMtropoleUrbanCommunity,83034
    Matanza-Riachuelobasin,201
    Mauritania,543,644,647,712,714,715,718,799
    MDGs,seeMillenniumDevelopmentGoals
    MekongRiverbasin,72,144,149,167,505,506,587,681
    adaptivewatermanagement,149,506,571,587
    climatechangeimpacts,681
    MekongRiverAgreement,506
    MekongRiverCommission,32,72,149,678,681
    Methane,453
    Mexico,9,66,113,119,200,202,205,206,301,317,354,396,427,507,
    525,526,528,651,692,694,695,700,701,703,704,759,762,
    860,861,862,863,864,86165
    disasterresponse,119
    groundwaterabstraction,84,85
    NationalWaterCommission(CONAGUA),206,695,703,704,863,
    864,865
    natualdisasters,696
    virtualwaterimports,33
    waterefciency,349
    watermanagementreforms,198,206
    micronance,317,687
    migration,4,7,10,52,93,128,135,139,140,193,208,211,221,264,
    330,337,339,354,418,423,424,631,644,657,658,659,662,663,
    708,709,714,795
    adaptivewatermanagement,141
    landdegradationanddrought,120
    MillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs),23,35,3637,69,96,103,
    123,127,148,162,168,180,181,205,312,318,357,358,360,408,
    409,415,416,437,537,552,553,554,590,591,596,603,612,650,
    651,652,664,666,676,692,693,698,701
    Arabregion,213
    climatechangeimpacts,698
    IstanbulWaterConsensusforLocalandRegionalAuthorities,69
    MDG1,eradicatepoverty,36,37,103,180
    MDG3,genderequality,36,584
    MDG7c,accesstoimprovedsanitation,36,37,96,103,123,127,
    142,164,180,190,205,436,591,596,640
    MDG7c,accesstosafewater,3637,96,103,127,142,164,180,190,
    192,205,436,437,591,596,640
    sub-SaharanAfrica,180,596,640,650,651,652
    WHO/UNICEFJointMonitoringProgrammeonWaterSupplyand
    Sanitation(JMP),36,64,65,108,142,163,164,426,709,737
    WHO/UN-WaterGlobalAnalysisandAssessmentofSanitation
    andDrinking-Water(GLAAS),36,108,142,146,148,312,437,
    539,737
    MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,27,70,111,312,411,508,511,548,
    623
    minimumow,seeenvironmentalow
    mining,138,347,698,735
    andIWRM,139
    ecosystemcontaminants,414
    MississippiRiverbasin,72,187,248,251,507,611,848
    ISARM,seeInternationalSharedAquiferResourcesManagement
    (ISARM)
    Istanbul,68,504,661
    IstanbulWaterConsensusforLocalandRegionalAuthorities,69
    Italy,659,759,835,836,838,840,83540
    groundwaterabstraction,84,85
    wateruseforagriculture,187
    IWRM,seeintegratedwaterresourcesmanagement
    Japan,48,53,298,319,351,459,460,478,482,679,680
    virtualwaterimports,33
    Japaneseencephalitis,103,106,730,732,736
    Jatropha,347,749
    JejuIsland,Korea,81419
    JhelumRiver,821
    JohannesburgPlanofImplementation,39
    JointInstitutefortheStudyoftheAtmosphereandOcean(JISAO),
    83
    JointMonitoringProgrammeonWaterSupplyandSanitation(JMP),
    seeWHO/UNICEF
    Jkulhlaups,93
    Jordan,209,210,214,218,318,708,709,712,715,717,719,720,792,
    793,794,795,796,79296
    accesstoimprovedwater,709
    waterinstitutions,213
    wetlands,795
    JubaShabellebasin,181
    KabulRiver,821
    Kazakhstan,354,665,667,675,676,679,680,682,684,686
    Kenya,144,146,182,216,278,397,545,553,570,571,574,648,649,
    735,746,750,786,787,788,789,790,78690,791
    drought,182
    LakeVictoriaRegionWaterandSanitationInitiative,596
    MDGtargets,180
    naturaldisasters,314
    paymentforecosystemservices,632,790
    Vision2030,790
    waterpolicies,790
    Korea,81419
    KufraBasin,644
    Kyrgyzstan,186,569,657,665,667,675,679,680,682
    paymentforecosystemservices,663
    LakeChad,122,210,514,633,643,647,648,650,712
    LakeChadbasin,183,184
    LakeConstance,658
    LakeGeneva,658
    LakePeipsi,658
    LakeVictoriaRegionWaterandSanitationInitiative,596
    landacquisitions,34,50,216,217,348,718
    Asia,217
    landdegradationanddrought,61637
    foodsecurity,122
    India,121
    migration,120
    landrights,220,748,753
    women,27
    LaoPeoplesDemocraticRepublic,72,192,506,676
    MekongRiverAgreement,72,506
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,9,21,66,198207,198,318,357,
    691704,692,693,695,696,697,698,699,700,701,702,703,
    704
    desertication,121
    greenhousegases,453
    Guaraniaquifer,350
    landdegradationanddrought,121
    naturaldisasters,696
    populationgrowth,200
    watermanagementreforms,206
    leastdevelopedcountries,3,46,123,264,436,441,452,462,708,
    709,718,749
    NairobiWorkProgramme,37
    Lebanon,10,210,419,708,709,710,711,712,713,714,715,716,717,
    718
    accesstoimprovedwater,709
    xix WWDR4 INDEX
    groundwaterabstraction,85
    IndusRiverbasin,821822
    IndusWaterTreaty,32,821822
    waterstressanddraught,194,574
    Palestine,592,717,719,795
    waterinstitutions,213
    PapuaNewGuinea
    urbanwaterquality,195
    Paraguay,142,204,207,569,700,703,767
    Guaraniaquifer,350
    Paranabasin,398
    paymentforecosystemservices,197,251,507,514,632,659,684,
    788,790,858
    Africa,632,788,791
    Asia-Pacic,197,682,684
    Europe,189,508,663
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,663,856,858
    NorthAmerica,663
    PermanentIndusCommission,821
    persistentorganicpollutants,411,414
    Peru,29,105,106,198,202,204,206,252,385,408,537,605,610,
    692,694,695,696,698,700
    agriculturalproduction,700
    Broggiglacier,398
    climatechangeimpacts,92,204,308
    drylands,398
    ElNio-SouthernOscillation(ENSO),700
    glaciermelt,92,204,398
    miningindustry,201,398
    WaterforAllProgramme,28,29
    WhiteCordillera,398
    pesticides,3,9,48,51,66,105,187,216,271,345,407,409,410,411,
    414,461,510,546,656,659,660,661,663,666,850
    DDT,414
    Philippines,280,336,392,428,524,676,679,682,684,717,750
    agro-industries,213
    greentechnology,198
    paymentforecosystemservices,197,684
    PhnomPenh,685,750,751
    photobioreactors,26
    point-of-usewatertreatment,540,726,727
    polluterpaysprinciple,28,560
    pollution,
    agrochemicals,3,9,16,25,48,50,51,96,105,112,122,138,163,
    187189,210,262,269,34546,43435,447,45459,461,
    494,510,511,540,546,574,630,656,65966,712,795,816,
    824,829,840,844,850
    domesticwastewater,140,336
    economicgrowth,345,675
    impactonenvironment,5,60
    industrial,60,455,497
    regulatoryframeworks,25
    populationgrowth
    Africa,177
    Arabregion,211
    CentralAmerica,200
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,198,200
    populationtrendsindex,160
    waterbornediseases,725
    Portugal,575,659,662,842,843,844,845,84246
    Institutodagua,844
    wateruseforagriculture,187
    precautionaryprinciple,64,232,239,247,292,294,495,668
    publicprivatepartnerships,563,564
    rainfall,globalmean,87
    rainfedagriculture,49,178,179,180,212,217,247,253,261,448,452,
    573,605,611,626,714,747,748,753
    Africa,178,179,180
    Arabregion,212
    RamsarConventiononWetlands,508,514
    RaviRiver,821
    reallocationofwater,137,522,523,525,579
    remotesensing,8,166,168,170,171,214,264,720
    moistureindex,159
    Moldova,Republicof,186,191,657,658,662,663,664,665,667,668
    oods,662
    wastewatertreatment,188
    MoleNationalPark,783
    MondiWetlandsProject,337
    Mongolia,675,676,679,682,810
    Morocco,212,214,218,301,497,564,708,712,714,715,716,717,718,
    719,720,735,798802
    drought,212
    urbanization,208
    waterinstitutions,213
    MountHalla,819
    Mozambique,182,216,218,278,294,314,524,643,746,747
    disasterresponse,118
    oods,183,643
    multilateralenvironmentalagreements(MEAs),38,485
    MurrayDarlingbasin,397,404,529,543,571,8038
    saltwaterintrusion,404
    NairobiWorkProgramme,3738
    Namibia,182,294,634,646
    forumforintegratedresourcemanagement,150
    IWRMplan,150
    NASAGRACEsatelliteimagery,seeGravityRecoveryandClimate
    Experiment
    NationalAdaptationPlans,37,148
    nationalwaterplans,139,144,148,150
    Australia,NationalWaterInitiative,69
    IstanbulWaterConsensusforLocalandRegionalAuthorities,69
    NegrosIsland,Philippines,336
    Nepal,93,145,243,432,433,434,675,676,679,682
    accesstosafewaterandsanitation,437
    Netherlands,297,298,329,330,340,482,494,568,585,593,650,
    761,766
    oodmanagement,248,663
    infrastructurereform,136
    resiliencetoclimatechange,239,245
    NewZealand,90
    lossofwetlands,113
    NigerRiverbasin,122,178,181,182,217,314,331,397,543,574,643,
    644,645,647,712
    Nigeria,182,299,419,514,647,712
    NileBasinStates,181
    NileRiverbasin,32,113,122,181,210,217,314,353,397,528,529,644,
    712,713,719,720,787
    NileBasinInitiative,32
    nitrogenbalance,112
    nitrogenloading,159
    Nitrousoxide,453
    no-regretsplanning,359
    NorthAfrica,10,48,403,415,486,570,596,759,762,799
    costofpoorwaterquality,97
    landdegradationanddrought,121
    NorthAmerica,65568
    NorthAtlanticOscillation(NAO),81,83,383
    NorthChinaPlain,27,88,194,759,762,810
    NubianSandstoneAquiferSystem,644,762
    nuclearelectricity,24,25
    nutrientloading,111,112,508,850
    nutrientremovalinwastewater,96
    ofcialdevelopmentassistance,21,312,436
    Okavangobasin,181
    onchocerciasis,103,105,106,730,732,736
    Orinocoriverbasin,200
    oxygendecit,96
    PacicDecadalOscillation(PDO),81,82,83,383,393,766
    PacicNorthAmerican(PNA)pattern,393
    Pakistan,48,93,113,122,135,145,219,447,537,577,602,606,607,
    608,675,679,682,760,82025,824
    climatechange,122
    oods,194
    foodsecurity,195
    greenhousegases,453
    xx
    SouthAfrica,135,149,163,180,182,279,280,294,300,301,317,332,
    337,338,436,437,529,530,735
    hydroelectricity,163
    MDGtargets,180
    watergovernancereforms,144
    WorkingforWaterprogramme,632
    SouthAfricanPowerPool,184
    SouthSudan,713
    SouthernAfrica,419,454,643
    climatechangevulnerability,50
    SouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity,165,646
    DroughtMonitoringCentre,184
    ProtocolonSharedWatercourses,181
    Spain,301,435,542,575,659,662,759,762,843,844,846
    drought,190
    groundwaterabstraction,84
    groundwater-fedirrigation,86
    wateruseforagriculture,187
    SriLanka,118,252,281,301,584,605,679,682,684,759
    paymentforecosystemservices,197,684
    StJohnsRiverbasin,84752
    StandardizedPrecipitationIndex,608,609
    StockholmWorldWaterWeek,765
    sub-SaharanAfrica,8,46,50,66,68,123,143,178,179,180,262,265,
    281,318,319,334,409,419,437,450,452,454,538,559,562,570,
    584,640,644,646,728,735,747,748,749
    climatechangeimpacts,182,184
    foodsecurity,86,122,180,184
    landaquisitions,217
    landdegradationanddrought,121,180,184,212,61637
    MDGtargets,36,180,596,640,650,651,652
    populationgrowth,64,120,121
    rainfall,121
    renewablewaterresources,178
    slums,179
    waterstress,182,645
    Sudan,182,210,211,216,354,397,529,643,644,646,647,710,711,
    712,715,716,717,718
    agro-industries,213
    groundwaterwithdrawals,644
    surfacewaterrunof,171,352,713
    sustainableagriculturalpractices,31,96,418
    sustainablelandmanagement,123,627,633,634
    SutlejRiver,821
    Swaziland,646,746
    Sweden,151
    Switzerland,615,658,659,663
    paymentforecosystemservices,663
    Syria,214,604,709,714,793
    conicts,209
    rainfedagriculture,212
    SystemofEnvironmental-EconomicAccountingforWater(SEEAW),
    169,548
    Tagusestuary,844
    TagusRiverbasin,842,843,844,84246,845
    TaihuLake,413
    Tajikistan,186,569,658,674,675,676,679,681,682
    Tanzania,182,278,314,397,419,542,558,573,648,649,746,748,
    786,787,788,789,790,791
    LakeVictoriaRegionWaterandSanitationInitiative,596
    MinistryofWater,144
    paymentforecosystemservices,790
    waterpolicies,790
    Thailand,66,72,197,218,412,427,459,506,511,611,676,682
    greentechnology,198
    MekongRiverAgreement,72,506
    thermalpowerplants,54,55,140,469
    TiberRiverbasin,83540
    TibetanPlateau,810,821
    Togo,780
    totalactualrenewablewaterresources(TARWR),79,80,159,160,
    162,165,166,171,709
    toxiccontamination,96,411,414
    renewablewaterresources,8,79,80,124,136,160,178,180,192,207,
    210,443,451,681,708,711,793,799,854,865
    Asia-Pacic,194
    sub-SaharanAfrica,178
    RepublicofKorea,606,675,679,682,815
    results-basednancing,562,565
    revengeefects,136
    RhineRiverbasin,190,192,665,667
    righttowater,seewaterrights
    traditions,50
    RiodeJaneiro,Brazil,702
    RioEarthSummit,seeUNCSD(UNConferenceonSustainable
    Development)
    RioGrandebasin,95,408
    Rio+20,seeUNConferenceonSustainableDevelopment(UNCSD)
    riverbasinmanagementauthorities,145
    RuralWaterandSanitationInitiative,Africa,183
    Russia,189,419,661,666,715
    drought,218
    Rwanda,182,397,747
    Sahara,178,210,643,644,646,647,709,712,762,768,799
    Sahel,514,574,643,647,650,709,714,715,735
    LakeChadbasin,183
    waterstress,645
    salinationofsoils,645
    salinizationofgroundwater,140,330
    saltwaterintrusion,66,88,94,96,210,214,330,335,403,404,408,
    411,415,418,427,488,681,708,710,712,718,719,760,764,765,
    766,816,819,832,849
    Arabregion,214
    Europe,427
    sanitation,accesstoimproved,2627,36,37,96,103,123,127,142,
    164,180,190,205,436,591,596,640
    andgenderequality,676
    socio-economicdevelopment,26
    SoJooDAliana,337
    SoPaulo,Brazil,350
    Sasumuawatershed,632
    SaudiArabia,210,214,216,217,218,270,473,709,712,714,715,718,
    719,720,762,793
    groundwaterabstraction,85
    scenarios
    IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),30
    modelling,140
    waterqualityscenarios,98,402
    schistosomiasis,103,105,106,179,730,735,736,751,783
    sealevelrise,16,88,204,210,238,239,330,335,345,404,415,418,
    474,512,513,610,611,615,708,712,713,719,752,758,765,766,
    780,782,793,799,804,810,821,827,849,854,855,861
    sedimentation,121,140,188,346,404,510,546,621,630,632
    Senegal,182,210,216,217,314,543,564,623,647,712,713,714
    SenegalRiverbasin,184
    SEWA(SelfEmployedWomensAssociation),India,337
    SierraLeone,419
    siltation,121,263,269,415,621,623,630,633,645,822
    Sinaidam,214,714,718
    Singapore,433,478,681,683
    greentechnology,198
    InstituteofWaterPolicy,433
    SingaporeInternationalWaterWeek,433
    Slovakia,661,827
    oodmanagement,663
    slums,4,64,65,68,105,159,265,424,425,431,435,640,644,645,
    685,732,733,750,751,783
    sub-SaharanAfrica,64,177,179
    smallislanddevelopingstates(SIDS),9,37,196,611,
    NairobiWorkProgramme,37
    Softpathapproach,136,137,140
    soilfauna,629
    soilorganicmatter,629
    solarenergy,25
    Somalia,354,648,709,714,715,718
    drought,212
    xxi WWDR4 INDEX
    ethanolandbiodieselproduction,50,454,455
    shingindustries,82
    oods,248,662
    greenhousegases,453
    groundwaterabstraction,84,85
    irrigation,187
    IWRM,139
    MississippiRiver,187
    paymentforecosystemservices,663
    populationgrowth,185
    virtualwaterexports,33
    watercontamination,189
    waterstress,126,397
    waterwithdrawals,185
    wetlands,252
    UN-Water,20,31,39,108,124,126,142,146,148,159,165,172,221,
    236,312,358,437,539,621,636,676,737,752, see alsoWHO/
    UN-Water
    genderpriority,110
    taskforceonwaterresourcesmanagement,38
    andUNCSD(UNConferenceonSustainableDevelopment),39
    UNWater/Africa,175,180,643,650,651,652
    urbandrainagesystems,28,140
    urbanwastewater,66,96,191,201,317,435,528,667,702
    urbanwastewatertreatment,96,418
    UrbanWaterDirective,EU435
    urbanwatersupply,68,110,144,220,265,431,557,692,698,744,
    750,783
    Australia,397
    Africa,652
    IstanbulWaterConsensusforLocalandRegionalAuthorities,69
    IWACitiesoftheFutureprogramme,69
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,198
    qualityconstraints,195
    urbanization,11,24,46,49,64,65,68,69,96,107,128,135,139,140,
    162,183,192,193,202,240,264,265,269,357,407,409,418,422
    37,423,424,425,426,431,434,442,450,451,455,456,555,568,
    645,662,672,673,675,697,708,724,783,817,863
    Arabregion,20809
    Asia-Pacic,192,194,197
    Europe,239
    greeneconomy,39
    greenhousegases,431
    humanhealth,106,140
    IstanbulWaterConsensusforLocalandRegionalAuthorities,69
    andIWRM,139,435
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,200,696
    waterstress,140,435,645
    Uruguay,206,207,472,694,695,696,703,767
    demographicchange,200,201
    Guaraniaquifer,350
    populationgrowth,696
    Uzbekistan,186,408,569,674,675,680,681,682
    waterstress,194
    valuingwater,141,53348
    vector-bornediseases,103,105,106,118,148,179,265,409,537,730,
    731,732,734,735,736,783,784,824
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,204
    VietNam,72,252,335,459,506,676,679,682,684,687,759
    MekongRiverAgreement,72,506
    naturaldisasters,65
    paymentforecosystemservices,197,684
    virtualwater,10,18,3234,33,34,35,51,63,112,163,185,217,261,
    452,482,486,493,520
    Arabregion,212
    foreigninvestmentprotection,18,34
    UnitedKingdom,112
    VoltaRiverbasin,122,278,644,781,782,783,784
    LakeVolta,781
    wadis,210,212,715,795
    wastewatertreatment,14,28,57,58,60,61,67,95,96,97,105,107,
    135,188,189,241,252,280,281,297,311,317,336,337,403,407,
    409,411,416,418,423,430,431,433,435,459,467,470,471,472,
    transboundaryriverbasins,535,635,646,661,663
    transboundarywaters,9,16,29,3132,34,61,72,93,122,123,136,
    181,184,185,187,192,207,210,216,217,219,313,314,319,353,397,
    404,414,487,492,496,506,521,528,529,535,543,571,627,631,
    635,641,643,644,646,648,652,656,658,659,660,661,663,
    66465,3132,664,665,667,668,678,757,758,762,766,767,
    768,787,788,790,843,844,846,see alsoindividualbasins
    Africa,216,397,643
    Arabregion,210
    Australia,397
    bilateralandmultilateralagreementsandcooperation,32,185,
    658,665
    CongoRiverbasin,122
    Europe,185,190
    Ganges,167
    Guaraniaquifer,350
    Indusbasin,820825
    LakeChad,122,184
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,207
    MekongRiverbasin,144,149,167,506,571,587
    NigerRiverbasin,122,181,397
    NileRiverbasin,122,181,397
    NubianSandstoneAquiferSystem,644
    sub-SaharanAfrica,181
    VoltaRiverbasin,122
    waterallocation,188,206,210,284,285
    ZambeziRiverbasin,122
    Tunisia,208,209,210,497,623,708,709,711,712,714,719,720
    conict,210
    drought,212
    rainfedagriculture,212
    Turkey,218,278,666,710,712,717
    agro-industries,213
    drought,190
    Uganda,149,182,281,397,585,747,751
    LakeVictoriaRegionWaterandSanitationInitiative,596
    Ukraine,191,419,658,661,663,664,665,667
    oods,662
    UNConferenceonEnvironmentandDevelopment(RioEarth
    Summit),35
    UNConferenceonSustainableDevelopment(UNCSD),23,39
    UNConferenceonSustainableDevelopment2012,seeRio+20
    UNConventionontheLawoftheNon-navigationalUsesof
    InternationalWatercourses,32
    UNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC),23
    UNMillenniumProject,312,437
    UNWomen,110,676,752
    UNCSD(UNConferenceonSustainableDevelopment)
    ConventiononBiologicalDiversity,508,796
    RioEarthSummit,1992,38,796,see alsoAgenda21
    Rio+20,2012,38,39,61,127,358
    UN-Waterrecommendations,39
    UNDPAdaptationLearningMechanism,94
    UNFCCC(UNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange),20,30,35,
    3738,358,800
    COP15,Copenhagen2009,37
    COP16,Cancun2010,37
    UNIFEM(UnitedNationsDevelopmentFundforWomen),749,see
    alsoUNWomen
    UnitedKingdom,108,313,331,332,432,435,493,511,513,573,662,
    750
    privatizationofwaterassets,146
    waterfootprintof,112
    UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforAfrica,175,180,181,407,
    643,644,646,650,651,652
    UnitedStatesNationalWaterQualityInventoryReport,660
    UnitedStatesofAmerica,47,48,55,67,68,72,87,113,115,120,121,
    123,135,167,190,192,221,270,278,283,301,315,319,320,334,
    351,386,387,389,396,397,411,414,447,454,459,468,470,471,
    472,473,475,482,486,507,512,573,660,662,663,667,762,763,
    766,847,848,849,84752
    CleanWaterAct,191
    drought,121,393
    xxii
    watersupplyandsanitationservices(WSS),2627,35,108,123,205,
    207,423,432,433,436,552,573,693,695,701,707,737,781,839,
    856
    inLatinAmericaandtheCarribbean,205
    universalcoverage,39
    WaterWomenproject,SoJooDAliana,Brazil,337
    waterbornediseases,96,106,115,118,408,409,432,540,725,726,
    728,730,751,752
    childmortality,726
    climatechangeimpacts,725
    schistosomiasis,730
    water-relatedhazards,27,102,115,116,118,119,602,603,613,614,801
    Asia-Pacic,9,65,196
    China,413
    climatechangeimpacts,27,94,187,218,252
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,696
    watershedmanagementcommittees,seebasinmanagement
    committees
    weirs,28,832
    WestAfrica,643
    ethanolandbiodieselproduction,218
    groundwaterrecharge,87
    WestAfricanPowerPool,184
    wetlands
    ChilikaLake,415
    lossof,118,140,252,611,662
    rehabilitation,337
    sustainablemanagementof,337
    WHO/UNICEFJointMonitoringProgrammeonWaterSupplyand
    Sanitation(JMP),36,64,65,66,68,108,142,163,164,426,539,
    709,737
    WHO/UN-WaterGlobalAnalysisandAssessmentofSanitationand
    Drinking-Water(GLAAS),36,108,142,146,148,312,437,539,737
    women
    collectionofwater,751
    empowermentof,749, see alsogenderequality
    foodproduction,26
    landandwaterrights,27
    marginalizationof,18,747
    vulnerabilitytorisks,18,751
    watermanagement,26
    women,involvementof
    WaterWomenproject,SoJooDAliana,Brazil,337
    Women,WaterandWorkCampaign,Gujarat,India,337
    WorldBusinessCouncilonSustainableDevelopment(WBCSD),169,
    251,340,347,348,350,493,495,507
    WorldEconomicForum,23,35,169,170,215,348,485
    WorldHealthOrganization,seeWHO
    WorldMeteorologicalOrganization,172,332,534,608,613,663
    WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO),608
    WorldWaterDevelopmentReport(WWDR),134
    WWDR1,2003,19,20,78,159,504
    WWDR2,2006,19,20,78,111,142,508,510,512,572,590
    WWDR3,2009,18,19,20,21,24,60,78,111,139,158,163,233,249,
    313,344,357,508,510,513,810,813
    WSSD(WorldSummitonSustainableDevelopment),38,651,652,
    668
    integratedwaterresourcesmanagement(IWRM)target,38
    YangtzeRiverbasin,331,505,529
    YellowRiverbasin,81013
    Yemen,209,210,211,218,434,709,712,713,714,715,717,720,762,
    764
    waterconicts,210
    waterinstitutions,213
    ZambeziRiverbasin,122,314,524,528,644
    Zambia,182,278,314,524,553,573,735,746
    zerodischarge,63,64,484,485,490,496,498
    Zimbabwe,294,334,
    473,474,494,495,528,540,554,656,659,661,662,663,668,
    672,678,679,681,732,765,795,829,831,832,833,839,840,851,
    865
    articialwetlands,336
    Asia-Pacic,197
    eco-efcientwaterinfrastructure,682
    inindustrializedcountries,435
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,205
    watersupplyandsanitationservices,2627
    wastewaterreuse,26,138,336
    waterabstraction,25,27,72,86,113,348,525,644,674,760,781,
    795,801,828,856,862
    foragriculture,24,187,719
    Arabstates,85,644
    Asia-Pacic,5,85,86
    China,85
    forenergy,25
    Europe,84,85,185
    ofgroundwater,5,66,8389,665,759,760,762,763,764,769,
    794,801,806,816,822
    renewabilitythreshold,27
    NorthAmerica,84,85,185
    sub-SaharanAfrica,182,644,781
    wateraccounting,63,164,169,172,293,300,526,530,548
    WaterActionPlan,G8,35
    waterallocation,6,16,37,51,71,72,109,128,135,138,188,285,284
    86,300,301,302,317,328,330,339,353,358,38298,461,487,
    503,505,51633,542,545,569,570,576,579,634,651,662,665,
    674,692,713,797,813,846,863
    waterasahumanright,35,3435,36,108,142,215,220,266,274,
    485,490,518,519,52122,592,626,737,751
    CostaRica,856
    watercycle,seehydrologicalcycle
    waterefciency,33,34,38,59,64,202,238,271,273,300,317,349,
    455,478,493,495,857,862,865
    waterefciencyplans,38,455
    WaterFrameworkDirective,EU,9,189,191,192,300,542,560,575,
    577,595,659,661,663,667,668,762,765,828,829,839,840,
    845
    watergovernance,2935
    globalcooperationonclimatechange,29
    waterinstitutions,7,144,148
    climatechange,145
    foodsecurity,144
    IWRM,145
    waterlegislation,9,50,206
    Canada,191
    Europe,191
    governancereforms,32,144,198,206
    wateroptimisation,496
    waterpricing,137,159,248,293,387,389,558,560,667
    waterquality,40119
    assessmentframeworks,402
    economicimpacts,5
    lackofdata,402
    scenarios,402
    waterrights,35,3435,36,108,142,215,266,274,490,518,626,737
    andwomen,110
    watersecurity,3,6,25,51,52,110,113,122,138,149,159,170,197,198,
    207,249,251,254,278,314,395,441,455,462,503,504,505,510,
    511,513,514,539,544,545,552,672,684,685,708,744,750,795,
    832,856
    IWACitiesoftheFutureprogramme,69
    waterstress,12,27,57,102,112,122,123,124,126,140,145,163,182,
    187,190,261,262,268,281,284,390,395,408,433,443,486,513,
    541,564,573,574,645,661,694,708,715,780,784,843,846
    Arabregion,121,194,210,211,212,574
    Asia-Pacic,121,164,243,404,645
    Europe,190,218
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean,201,202
    NorthAmerica,121,393
    sub-SaharanAfrica,121,178,180,182,184,212,216,61637
    waterstressindex,159
    9 789231 042355
    UNDESA, UNECA,
    UNECE, UNECLAC,
    UNESCAP and UNESCWA
    United Nations
    (GXFDWLRQDO6FLHQWLFDQG
    Cultural Organization
    The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP) is hosted by UNESCO and brings together the
    work of 28 UN-Water members and partners in the triennial World Water Development Report (WWDR).
    This agship report is a comprehensive review that gives an overall picture of the worlds freshwater resources. It
    analyses pressures from decisions that drive demand for water and afect its availability. It ofers tools and response
    options to help leaders in government, the private sector and civil society address current and future challenges. It
    suggests ways in which institutions can be reformed and their behaviour modied, and explores possible sources of
    nancing for the urgently needed investment in water.
    The WWDR4 is a milestone within the WWDR series, reporting directly on regions and highlighting hotspots, and it
    has been mainstreamed for gender equality. It introduces a thematic approach Managing Water under Uncertainty
    and Risk in the context of a world which is changing faster than ever in often unforeseeable ways, with increasing
    uncertainties and risks. It highlights that historical experience will no longer be sufcient to approximate the
    relationship between the quantities of available water and shifting future demands. Like the earlier editions, the
    WWDR4 also contains country-level case studies describing the progress made in meeting water-related objectives.
    The WWDR4 also seeks to show that water has a central role in all aspects of economic development and social
    welfare, and that concerted action via a collective approach of the water-using sectors is needed to ensure waters
    many benets are maximized and shared equitably and that water-related development goals are achieved.

    UN-Water is the United Nations (UN) inter-agency coordination mechanism for all freshwater related issues. It was
    formally established in 2003 building on a long history of collaboration in the UN family. It currently counts 29 UN
    Members and 25 other international Partners. UN-Water complements and adds value to existing UN initiatives by
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    V
    O
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    U
    M
    E

    1
    Cultural Organization
    Educational, Scientific and
    United Nations
    Report
    Knowledge
    Base

    THE UNITED NATIONS WORLD WATER
    DEVELOPMENT REPORT 4
    VOLUME 2
    Knowledge
    Base

    THE UNITED NATIONS WORLD WATER
    DEVELOPMENT REPORT 4
    VOLUME 2
    Publishedin2012bytheUnitedNationsEducational,
    ScienticandCulturalOrganization
    7,placedeFontenoy,75352Paris07SP,France
    UNESCO2012
    Allrightsreserved
    Chapter24,Investinginwaterinfrastructure,itsoperationandits
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    1818HStreet,NW,Washington,DC20433,USA
    ISBN978-92-3-104235-5
    e-bookISBN978-92-3-001045-4
    Originaltitle:TheUnitedNationsWorldWaterDevelopment
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    Knowledge Base(Vol.2)andFacing the Challenges(Vol.3).
    Publishedin2012bytheUnitedNationsEducational,
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    Suggestedcitation:
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    Nations World Water Development Report 4: Managing Water under
    Uncertainty and Risk.Paris,UNESCO.
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    ThecontentsofVolume2werecontributedbytheUN-Water
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    WWDR4 I STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUANTITY
    CHALLENGE AREA REPORTS
    Chapter 15. State of the Resource: Quantity 381
    15.1 Drivers of variability 383
    15.2 Stressors on water resources 383
    15.3 Risks and uncertainty in water resources management 388
    15.4 Hot spots 395
    Chapter 16. State of the Resource: Quality 401
    16.1 Introduction 403
    16.2 Natural processes combined with social and economic drivers of water quality risks 403
    16.3 Relationship between water quantity and water quality 408
    16.4 Human health risks related to water quality 408
    16.5 Ecosystem health risks related to water quality 411
    16.6 Economic costs of poor water quality 415
    16.7 Risks, monitoring and intervention 418
    Chapter 17. Human Settlements 422
    17.1 The changing urban background 424
    17.2 Water abstraction 427
    17.3 Climate change and resilient urban water systems 431
    17.4 Water education 436
    17.5 Financing the water sector 436
    Chapter 18. Managing water along the livestock value chain 440
    18.1 Water: A key role in agriculture 442
    18.2 Managing water resources in agriculture 449
    18.3 Uncertainties and risk management 452
    18.4 A new era in food and water management? 455
    18.5 Water use along the livestock value chain 456
    Chapter 19. The global nexus of energy and water 465
    19.1 Introduction 467
    19.2 Exacerbation of the strain in the energywater relationship 473
    19.3 Policy choices towards more energy-intensive water and water-intensive energy 474
    Conclusions and recommendations 477
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    WWDR4 i TABLEOFCONTENTS
    CHAPTER15 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS II
    Chapter 20. Freshwater for industry 480
    20.1 Key issues 482
    20.2 External drivers 484
    20.3 Principal risks and uncertainties 487
    20.4 Challenge areas 489
    20.5 Opportunities 492
    Chapter 21. Ecosystems 502
    21.1 The challenges 504
    21.2 The role of ecosystems in regulating water quantity and quality 504
    21.3 Ecosystem status and trends 508
    21.4 Risks, vulnerabilities and uncertainties afecting ecosystems and water security 510
    21.5 Ecosystem-based approaches to the management of water 512
    Chapter 22. Allocating water 517
    22.1 Allocating water 519
    22.2 Main issues 519
    22.3 New water allocation paradigms in the face of uncertainty 522
    22.4 Opportunities: How the key water allocation issues can be addressed 525
    Conclusion 530
    Chapter 23. Valuing water 533
    23.1 Introducing the issues 535
    23.2 Challenges for Valuing water 547
    Chapter 24. Investing in water infrastructure, its operation and its maintenance 550
    24.1 Water, risk and uncertainty 552
    24.2 Investment needs in the water sector 553
    24.3 Financing the gap 556
    Conclusions and recommendations: The way forward 564
    Chapter 25. Water and institutional change: Responding to present and future uncertainty 567
    25.1 Institutions: Form and function 569
    25.2 Institutional responses to uncertainty 572
    25.3 Implementation of acceptable and workable institutions 575
    25.4 Opportunities for improving water institutions 578
    Chapter 26. Developing knowledge and capacity 582
    26.1 A changing agenda 584
    26.2 Developing capacity 584
    26.3 Preparing a capacity development strategy 587
    26.4 Capacity development strategies and approaches 592
    26.5 The way forward 596
    Chapter 27. Water-related disasters 600
    27.1 Introduction 602
    27.2 Anatomy of disasters: Trends in ood and drought risk 604
    27.3 Water-related disaster risk drivers 609
    27.4 Methodologies and tools for reducing water-related hazard risk 612
    27.5 Emerging approaches to reduce ood and drought hazard risk 614
    27.6 Conclusions and required actions 615
    ii KNOWLEDGEBASE
    WWDR4 III STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUANTITY
    Chapter 28. Desertication, land degradation and drought and their
    impacts on water resources in the drylands 619
    28.1 Introduction 621
    28.2 The challenge: Water as a key resource under pressure in the drylands 622
    28.3 Desertication, land degradation and drought: Drivers, risks and uncertainties, and hotspots 627
    28.4 Potential responses to save the drylands and their populations 631
    Conclusions and recommendations 636
    REGIONAL REPORTS
    Chapter 29. Africa 639
    29.1 Regional issues and recent developments 641
    29.2 External drivers 643
    29.3 Principal risks, uncertainties and opportunities 645
    29.4 Geographical hotspots 647
    29.5 Response measures 649
    Conclusion 652
    Chapter 30. Europe and North America 655
    30.1 Introduction 657
    30.2 Water management and response measures 658
    30.3 Uncertainties and risks 664
    30.4 Water governance 667
    Chapter 31. Asia and the Pacic 671
    31.1 Introduction 673
    31.2 Issues 673
    31.3 Emerging drivers 675
    31.4 Principal risks and uncertainties 681
    31.5 Achievements through policy-making 681
    31.6 Sectoral priorities and regional initiatives 685
    Chapter 32. Latin America and the Caribbean 691
    32.1 External drivers and their efects 693
    32.2 Risks, uncertainties and opportunities 697
    32.3 Areas of particular concern 699
    32.4 The challenge ahead 703
    Chapter 33. Arab region and Western Asia 706
    33.1 Regional developments 708
    33.2 Drivers 708
    33.3 Challenges, risks and uncertainties 711
    33.4 Response measures 716
    Conclusion 720
    WWDR4 iii TABLEOFCONTENTS
    CHAPTER15 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS IV
    SPECIAL REPORTS
    Chapter 34. Water and health 723
    34.1 Introduction 725
    34.2 Water-related disease groups, environmenthealth pathway and promising interventions 725
    34.3 Trends and hotspots 732
    34.4 Solution options 734
    Conclusions 736
    Chapter 35. Water and gender 742
    35.1 Introduction 744
    35.2 Challenges and opportunities 744
    35.3 The way forward 752
    Chapter 36. Groundwater 756
    36.1 Groundwater in a web of interdependencies 758
    36.2 Panorama of change 758
    36.3 Key issues on groundwater 762
    Conclusions 768
    Boxes, tables and gures 773
    iv KNOWLEDGEBASE
    UNESCO-IHP

    AuthorsBalajiRajagopalanandCaseyBrown
    ContributorsAnilMishra(Coordinator),SiegfriedDemuth(Coordinator),EdithZagona,
    JoseSalas,AshishSharma,UpmanuLallandAustinPolebitski
    CHAPTER 15
    State of the resource: Quantity
    LawrenceHislop/UNEP/GRID-Arendal(http://www.grida.no/photolib)

    What is the current state of the worlds freshwater resources? What are the most important
    external drivers and their resulting pressures and impacts on these resources as well as their
    use and management? This chapter tries to answer these questions. It begins by describing
    the main issues facing the state of the resource and how these have been changing over
    recent years. The chapter then outlines the related principal risks, challenges, uncertainties
    and opportunities. Finally, geographic hotspots of particular concern are identied and
    examples of how some countries are dealing with the issues and challenges are provided.
    WWDR4 383 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUANTITY
    15.1Driversofvariability
    15.1.1Thehydrologicalcycle
    Itiswellknownthatamere2.5%ofglobalwaterre-
    sourcesispotentiallyavailableforhuman,animaland
    plantconsumption;theremaining97.5%residesinthe
    oceans.Addingtothislimitationisthefactthatfresh-
    waterishighlyuneveninitsspatialdistribution;thus,
    itisnotuncommonthatregionshabitableforhuman
    settlementndthemselveswithinsufcientfreshwater.
    Themovementoffreshwateramongterrestrialpartsof
    theearth,theoceansandthecryosphereisknownas
    thehydrologicalcycle,thewatercycleortheH
    2
    Ocycle.
    Evaporationandevapotranspirationaccountfor
    3070%ofthelossestotemperatureinaridclimates
    andgroundwaterrechargeisabout130%forthese
    regions(e.g.seetable4.1inWWAP,2006).Alarge
    partoftheworldspopulationlivesinsemi-aridand
    aridclimatesthathaveabout30%ofprecipitation
    availableforreadyuse.Theincreaseintemperature
    duetoglobalwarmingwillreducetheamountofwa-
    teravailableforreadyuseinthefuture,andincreasing
    temperatureswillalsoreducegroundwaterrecharge,
    furtherexacerbatingthewateravailabilitychallenge.
    Table15.1showsthetotalprecipitationandrenewable
    wateravailableforthepopulationindiferentecosys-
    temsandregionsoftheworld.Theworldspopulation
    hassubstantiallyincreasedwhileglobalprecipitation
    hasremainedlargelyconstant.Precipitationmaybe
    signicantlyreducedinthefutureinsemi-aridand
    aridregions,whichtendtobeamongthemostvulner-
    ableandpoorestintheworld,duetoanthropogenic
    climatechange(IPCC,2007).Thus,asmallerfraction
    ofglobalfreshwaterwillhavetosatisfyanincreasing
    population,ascanbeseeninFigure15.1.
    Understandingthemovementofwaterandthespatial
    andtemporalvariabilityofwateravailabilityarethe
    mostimportantaspectsofwaterresourcesthatneed
    tobeunderstoodandincorporatedinplanningand
    managementforresourcesustainability.Large-scale
    climateforcings(i.e.drivers)orchestratethespatial
    andtemporalmovementofwater.Theseasonalvari-
    ationofavailablewaterresourcesisdrivenbythe
    earthstiltanditsrevolutionaboutthesun.Thisresults
    inwetanddryseasonsinthetropicsduetothean-
    nualmovementoftheIntertropicalConvergenceZone
    (ITCZ).Inthetropics,annualtotalrainfallmaybelarge
    butintra-annualvariationisalsolarge,posingachal-
    lengetowaterresourcesmanagementandeconomic
    development(BrownandLall,2006).Athighlatitudes
    precipitationismoreequallydistributed,butstream-
    owmaybeinuencedbytheaccumulationandmelt-
    ingofsnowpack.
    15.1.2ElNio-SouthernOscillationandotheroceanic
    oscillations
    TheElNio-SouthernOscillation(ENSO),acoupled
    ocean-atmosphericphenomenoninthetropicalPacic
    Ocean,isthedominantdriverofglobalclimateatsea-
    sonaltointerannualtimescales.Thestateofthetropi-
    calPacictriggersteleconnectionresponsesinother
    partsoftheworldespeciallyinLatinAmerica,South
    andSouth-EastAsia,andAfrica.
    ThePacicDecadalOscillation(PDO),theNorth
    AtlanticOscillation(NAO)andtheAtlantic
    MultidecadalOscillation(AMO)aredriversthatoper-
    ateatlongertimescales(interdecadaltocentury);
    theyarenotrobustphenomenathatcaneasilybe
    identied,observedandpredictedlikeENSO.These
    phenomenaimpactregionalclimatesinthemid-
    latitudes,mainlyinNorthAmericaandEurope.
    Researchinunderstandingthesedriversandtheir
    teleconnectionstoregionalclimateandhydrologyis
    neverthelessemerging.
    Alloftheseoscillationsaredriversthatimpactthevari-
    abilityofmoisturedeliveryinspaceandtimearound
    theworld.Understandinganddiagnosingtheirtele-
    connectionstoregionalhydrologyisapotentiallypow-
    erfultoolforwaterresourcespredictionandsimulation,
    andconsequently,foradaptationtoclimatevariability
    andchange.
    15.2Stressorsonwaterresources
    Thestateofwaterresourcesisconstantlychangingas
    aresultofthenaturalvariabilityoftheearthsclimate
    system,andtheanthropogenicalterationofthatcli-
    matesystemandthelandsurfacethroughwhichthe
    hydrologicalcycleismodulated.Thestateofwater
    resourcesisalsoinuencedbyhumanactivitiesthat
    afectdemand,suchaspopulationgrowth,economic
    developmentanddietarychanges,aswellasbythe
    needtocontroltheresources,suchasisrequiredfor
    settlementinoodplainsanddrought-proneregions.
    15.2.1Watersupply
    Thegreateststressonwatersupplycomesfrom
    thevariabilityofmoisturedeliverytoariverbasin,
    whichpredominantlyreectsvariabilityinclimatea
    CHAPTER15 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 384
    TABLE 15.1
    Estimatesofrenewablewatersupply,therenewablesupplyaccessibletohumans,andthepopulationserved
    bytherenewablesupplyindiferentecosystemsandregions
    System
    a
    or region Area
    Total
    precipitation
    (P
    1
    )
    Total renewable
    water supply, blue
    water ows
    (B
    1
    )
    Renewable water
    supply, blue water
    ows, accessible to
    humans
    b
    (B
    2
    )
    Population served
    by renewable
    resource
    c
    Millennium Ecosystem
    Assessment (MA)
    System
    (million km
    2
    ) (thousand km
    3
    per
    year) [% of global
    runof]
    [% of B
    1
    ] (billion)
    [% of world
    population]
    Forests 41.6 49.7 22.4 [57] 16.0 [71] 4.62 [76]
    Mountains 32.9 25.0 11.0 [28] 8.6 [78] 3.95 [65]
    Drylands 61.6 24.7 3.2 [8] 2.8 [88] 1.90 [31]
    Cultivated
    d
    22.1 20.9 6.3 [16] 6.1 [97] 4.83 [80]
    Islands 8.6 12.2 5.9 [15] 5.2 [87] 0.79 [13]
    Coastal 7.4 8.4 3.3 [8] 3.0 [91] 1.53 [25]
    Inland water 9.7 8.5 3.8 [10] 2.7 [71] 3.98 [66]
    Polar 9.3 3.6 1.8 [5] 0.3 [17] 0.01 [0.2]
    Urban 0.3 0.22 0.062 [0.2] 0.062 [100] 4.30 [71]
    Region
    Asia 20.9 21.6 9.8 [25] 9.3 [95] 2.56 [42]
    Former Soviet Union 21.9 9.2 4.0 [10] 1.8 [45] 0.27 [4]
    Latin America 20.7 30.6 13.2 [33] 8.7 [66] 0.43 [7]
    North Africa/
    Middle East
    11.8 1.8 0.25 [1] 0.24 [96] 0.22 [4]
    Sub-Saharan Africa 24.3 19.9 4.4 [11] 4.1 [93] 0.57 [9]
    OECD 33.8 22.4 8.1 [20] 5.6 [69] 0.87 [14]
    World Total 133 106 39.6 [100] 29.7 [75] 4.92 [81]
    a Note: double-counting for ecosystems under the MA denitions.
    b Potentially available supply without downstream loss.
    c Population from Vrsmarty et al. (2000).
    d For cultivated systems, estimates are based on cropland extent from Ramankutty and Foley (1999) within this MA reporting unit.
    Source: Hassan et al. (2005, table 7.2, p. 173). Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Reproduced by permission of Island Press, Washington DC.
    powerfulstressonwatersupplyaroundtheworld.The
    consequenceofthisstressisampliedbysocio-
    economicgrowth,managementpolicies,landcover
    andlandusechanges.Thestateofwaterresourcesis
    inconstantchange,theefectsofwhichcanbeonly
    partiallyanticipated.Somechangesthatwecan
    anticipatearedescribedbelow.
    Decrease in mean ow
    Thereisincreasingevidenceofsubstantialstreamow
    reductioninanumberofriverbasinsaroundtheworld
    inthecomingdecadesduetoglobalwarming.While
    someregions,suchasthoseinhigherlatitudes,could
    seeincreasesinmoistureandstreamow,unfortunate-
    ly,inmuchofthepopulatedregionsoftheworldthere
    isprojectedtobeareductioninow(IPCC,2007).
    Increase in ood potential
    Theimplicationsofclimatechangeincludeaccelera-
    tionofthewatercycle,whichcouldleadtoanincrease
    intheprobabilityofheavyrainfallandconsequently
    theoodingpotential.Extremerainfalleventsproduce
    enormousvolumesofwaterthatcauselossoflifeand
    damagetoproperty.Furthermore,withoutsignicant
    WWDR4 385 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUANTITY
    storagecapacity,theoodowsdonotrelieveperiods
    ofwatershortage.
    Increase in losses
    Itiswidelybelievedthatthemeantemperaturewill
    increaseinalmostallpartsoftheworld(IPCC,2007).
    Climatemodelsaremuchmoreusefulintemperature
    projectionsthaninthoseforprecipitation.Theconse-
    quencesofincreasingtemperaturesonwatersupply
    aredirectandstrongincreasedevaporation,transpi-
    ration(althoughthisismodulatedtosomedegreeby
    carbonfertilization)andinltration,allofwhichgreatly
    increasethelossesfromincomingmoisture,thusse-
    verelyreducingtheamountofwatereasilyavailable
    foruse.Theincreaseinevaporativedemandcannot
    easilybecounteredandthereforewillimpactsurface
    runofandwateravailability.
    Altered seasonality and timing of ow in snowmelt basins
    Manyriverbasinsinthemid-latitudes(i.e.snowmelt
    basins)gettheirwaterintheformofsnowinthewin-
    ter,whichthenmeltsinthefollowingspringtopro-
    ducerunofintheriversthatisthenstoredinreser-
    voirsforwatersupply.Snowisbenecialfromawater
    supplyperspectivebecauseitactsareservoir.Water
    managershaveusedthetimingofthemeltforefec-
    tivemanagementofreservoiroperationstosatisfyen-
    vironmentalneeds.Inawarmerclimateitisprojected
    thatthesnowmeltwouldoccurearlyduetothead-
    vancementofspringanditswarmerweather.This
    earlysnowmeltwouldreducethesnowseasonand
    increasemoisturedeliveryintheformofrainthusin-
    creasinginltrationandevaporativelossesduringthe
    melt.Allofthiswillplaceaheavystressontheamount
    ofwateravailableforuse.Thisislikelytobethecase
    overmuchofmid-latituderegions,butitwillbeespe-
    ciallyacuteinsemi-aridandaridregionsthatdepend
    onmountainoussnowmelt.
    Decrease or increase in ow due to glacier melt
    Fewpopulousplacesdependentirelyonowfrom
    glaciers.TheGangesandBrahmaputrariversinIndia
    receiveglaciermeltduringthewinterandspring
    months(i.e.non-monsoonmonths)thataccountsfor
    912%oftheirannualow(seeErikssonetal.,2009,
    table2).ForIndia,acountrywithonebillionpeople,a
    reductioninowduetoclimatechangeinevenoneof
    itsvitalriverscouldposeaseriousthreattoitswa-
    tersupply.Peru,ChileandArgentinasimilarlyreceive
    asubstantialamountofwaterfromglaciersinthe
    Andes.Withawarmingclimatetherearetwomajor
    impactsrelatedtoglaciers:(i)reducedsnowfallinthe
    lowerelevations,resultinginareductioninthesizeof
    thelowerelevationglaciers;and(ii)increasedlosses
    duringthemeltseason,therebyreducingtheamount
    ofow.Projectionsindicatearapiddepletionoflower
    elevationglaciersaroundtheworld(IPCC,2007).
    Loss of the groundwater bufer
    Groundwaterprovidesavitalbuferagainstrainfall
    variability,especiallyinwaterstressedpartsofthe
    world.Almostalloftheshallowgroundwaterreser-
    voirsarerechargedfromrainfall,butrechargeisgreat-
    lyimpactedbywithdrawal,populationgrowthand
    landcoverchange.Groundwateralsoplaysavitalrole
    inbuferingthevariabilityofsurfacewaterresources.
    Withrainfallvariabilityprojectedtoincreaseinfu-
    ture,thegroundwaterbuferwillbecomenolonger
    available.
    15.2.2Waterdemand
    Thedemandforwaterservicesinvolveshumanuse
    ofwaterforagricultureandindustryaswellasin-
    streamowrequirementsforwaterqualityand
    ecosystems.Thereisconsiderableuncertaintysur-
    roundingcurrentandfutureglobalwaterdemands.
    Thisisdueinpartto(a)thelackofcurrentdatade-
    scribingnationalconsumptionpatterns,withdrawals
    andsectorusage;(b)largedemographicchanges,
    FIGURE 15.1
    Cumulativedistributionofthepopulationwith
    respecttofreshwaterservices,19952000
    Source: Hassan et al. (2005, gure 7.7, p. 173). Millennium
    Ecosystem Assessment. Reproduced by permission of Island Press,
    Washington DC.
    Cumulativepopulation
    (millions)servedbyrunof
    0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
    Oftheworldspopulation:
    hasnoappreciable
    watersupply
    shareslowto
    moderatesupplies
    ofglobalrunof
    liveswithrelative
    waterabundance
    ofglobalrunof
    6000
    Fractionofglobalrunof

    3000

    0
    CHAPTER15 386 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS
    includingpopulationgrowth,economicgrowthand
    dietarychanges;and(c)ourlimitedunderstanding
    ofhowwaterdemandchangesdynamicallyinre-
    sponsetogrowingscarcity.
    Inmanypartsoftheworld,waterdemandisgrowing
    duetoanincreaseinpopulation,resultinginan
    increaseindemandforagriculturalandindustrial
    products.Economicgrowthindevelopingcountries
    oftenleadstoanincreaseinwaterdemand,forwhich
    thereareatleasttwocauses.First,directuseofwater
    increaseswitheconomicdevelopmentasaccessto
    waterandhouseholdappliancesimprove.Second,in
    manycountriesadietaryshiftoccursalongwith
    economicdevelopmentashiftfromaprimarily
    plant-baseddiettoonethathasahigherproportionof
    meat.Meatproductionrequiresmuchgreateramounts
    ofwater;forexample,ittakesapproximately16,000L
    ofwatertoproduce1kgofbeefcomparedwith
    3,000Lofwatertoproduce1kgofrice(Water
    FootprintNetwork,n.d.).IntheUSAandEurope,the
    percapitawaterrequirementforfoodishigherthanin
    othercountries,andfoodconsumptionisdominated
    byanimalproducts(Figure15.2).
    Globally,agricultureistheprimarywater-usingsec-
    tor:morethan70%ofwaterdivertedfromstreamsor
    renewablesourcesisusedforagriculturalpurposes,
    andthisnumberisevenhigherindevelopingcountries.
    Theprevailingclimateofaregionisanimportantdriver
    ofagriculturalwaterneeds,asevapotranspirationrates
    aresensitivetochangesinairtemperature,incom-
    ingsolarradiation,humidityandwindspeed.Climate
    variabilityplaysalargeroleinagriculturalwaterneeds
    nationally,thoughglobally,weather-drivenvariability
    inirrigationislessthan10%(Wisseretal.,2008).The
    typeofcropsgrownandthelandmanagementtech-
    niquesandirrigationmethodsusedfactorstronglyinto
    regionalagriculturaldemands.Wisseretal.(2008)
    notedglobalirrigationsensitivitiestopercolationrates
    inricepaddies:a50%changeinpercolationratecre-
    atesa10%changeinglobalirrigationwateruse;there-
    fore,about20%ofglobalirrigationwatermaybeper-
    colatingfromoodedricepaddies.
    Countrieswiththelargestpercapitawaterfootprints
    tendtohavelargegrossdomesticproducts(GDPs)
    andlargedurableconsumptionrates(seeMargat
    andAndrassian,2008).Theconsumptionofdura-
    blegoodsincreasesthewaterfootprint.TheUSAhas
    thelargestwaterfootprintofanynation,withalarge
    proportionofthepercapitawaterfootprintinindus-
    trialgoods(Figure15.3);however,theUSAranksthird
    globallyinoverallwaterconsumption(Figure15.4).
    IndiaandChinahavelowerpercapitawaterfootprints
    thantheUSAbutareoverallthelargesttotalwater
    consumers(Figure15.4).
    FIGURE 15.2
    Percapitawaterrequirementsforfood(m
    3
    percapitaperyear)
    Source: Liu and Savenije (2008, g. 5, p. 893).
    Developed
    Developing
    World
    SouthKorea
    Japan
    USA
    EU15
    China
    0 500
    Cerealsandstarchyroots
    1000 1500 2000
    Sugarandsweeteners
    Oilcropsandvegetableoils
    Vegetablesandfruits
    Alcoholicbeverages
    Animalproducts
    WWDR4 387 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUANTITY
    Despitelargewaterfootprints,waterdemandsinde-
    velopedcountriessuchastheUSAhavebeenona
    downwardtrendinthepast20years.Moreeconomi-
    callyefcientwaterpricingandtheuseofwateref-
    cienttechnologiesbothdomesticallyandinagriculture
    aretheprimarycauses(Box15.1).
    Otherchangesinwaterdemandareduetotheevolu-
    tionofhumanhabitationfromlargelyruraltoincreasingly
    urban.Thisshiftoferspotentialadvantagesintermsof
    economiesofscaleforprovidingdomesticwateraswell
    assanitationtopeople.Whilethisisapotentiallyhelpful
    trend,theprovisionofwaterservicesinrapidlygrowing
    andeconomicallydepressedurbanareasisacomplex
    challengethatrequirescontinuousefort.Despitedomes-
    ticwaterusebeingasmallproportionoftotalwatercon-
    sumed(1020%),providingitisbecomingincreasingly
    challengingasurbanpopulationsexpand.
    Anothermajorsourceofwaterdemandisforsustain-
    ingowsforecosystems,calledenvironmentalows.
    Thereisgrowingrecognitionofthenegativeimpacts
    onecosystemsofwaterwithdrawalsandalterationof
    owpatternsduetohumanuseofwater.Waterows
    foraquaticecosystemsarenowastandardpartof
    watermanagementobjectives,andincreasinglythere
    isdemandforowsthatmatchsomemeasureofthe
    historicalowregimeinplaceofminimumstreamow
    requirements,whichareseenasinsufcient.
    Inevitably,thevarieddemandforwaterresourcessets
    thesceneforconictsoverallocationofwaterservic-
    es.Asthevariabilityofwaterresourcesmayincrease,
    thereisaneedformoreexibilityinwaterallocation
    mechanismssothatdemandscanbesatisedand
    shortfallsallocatedinthemostsociallybenecialway.
    Becauseenvironmentalbenetsareoftenthemostdif-
    culttoassignvalueto,theymaybeatriskofbeing
    leftoutorunderestimated.
    Demandforgroundwaterpresentsitsownsetof
    challenges.Asarelativelycheapandreliablewater
    FIGURE 15.3
    Nationalpercapitawaterfootprintandthecontributionofdiferentconsumptioncategoriesforselected
    countries
    Source: Hoekstra and Chapagain (2007, g. 5). Reproduced by permission from Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    3000
    2500
    2000
    1500
    1000
    500
    0
    C
    h
    i
    n
    a
    I
    n
    d
    i
    a
    J
    a
    p
    a
    n
    P
    a
    k
    i
    s
    t
    a
    n
    I
    n
    d
    o
    n
    e
    s
    i
    a
    B
    r
    a
    z
    i
    l
    M
    e
    x
    i
    c
    o
    R
    u
    s
    s
    i
    a
    N
    i
    g
    e
    r
    i
    a
    T
    h
    a
    i
    l
    a
    n
    d
    I
    t
    a
    l
    y
    U
    S
    A
    Waterfootprint(m
    3
    percapitaperyear)
    Domesticwaterconsumption Industrialgoods Agriculturalgoods
    CHAPTER15 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 388
    15.3Risksanduncertaintyinwater
    resourcesmanagement
    15.3.1Understandingthesourcesofuncertainty
    Thekeysourcesofuncertaintyrelatedtowaterre-
    sourcesarethoseassociatedwithsupply,demand
    andthepolicycontext.Theuncertaintyofwatersup-
    plyresultsoriginallyfromthenaturalvariabilityofthe
    earthsclimatesystemandthehydrologicalcycle,as
    describedearlier.However,anthropogenicinuences
    areintroducingnewsourcesofuncertainty.Thesein-
    cludetheperturbationoftheearthsclimateduetothe
    emissionofgreenhousegases;thelargescaleemission
    ofaerosolsthatinuencethephysicsofprecipitation;
    andchangestotheearthssurfacethroughlanduse
    developmentwhichafectratesofrunofandevapo-
    transpiration.Takentogether,naturalvariabilityand
    anthropogenicforcingscreateanonstationaryclimate
    andhydrologicalcontextwithinwhichwaterresources
    mustbemanaged.Thisisparticularlynotablebecause
    thecurrentprinciplesforwaterresourcesmanagement
    arebasedlargelyonanassumptionofhydrological
    stationaritytheassumptionthatthefuturehydro-
    logicalrecordcanbeadequatelysimulatedwiththe
    statisticsofthehistoricalrecord.
    Uncertainty related to water demand
    Theuncertaintyassociatedwithwaterdemandis
    largelyrelatedtoboththedifcultyofanticipating
    demographicchangeandourlimitedunderstand-
    ingofhowwaterrespondstochangingclimateand
    policyconditions.Projectionsofwaterdemandare
    supply,groundwaterhasbeenaboontofarmers
    throughouttheworldandamajorcauseofincreas-
    ingfoodsecurity.However,asacommonproperty
    resource,groundwaterisinherentlypronetoover-
    use.Manymajoraquifersaroundtheworldarebe-
    ingmined,fromtheHighPlainsofNorthAmerica,
    tosouthernIndia,andthenorthernplainsofChina.
    Groundwaterintheseregionsisbeingextractedat
    ratesthatfarexceedrechargeandoftenexceedthe
    economicallyefcientuserate.Regulationofthe
    commonpropertyresourceisdifcultduetoitsdif-
    fusenatureandthepoliticalissuesofregulatingare-
    sourcethatisprivatelyaccessed.
    Finally,thereisdemandnotonlyforwaterresourc-
    esbutalsoprotectionfromhydrologicalextremes.
    Societiesaroundtheworldcontinuetobenegatively
    impactedbyoodsanddroughts,andthehumantoll
    islarge.Thecumulativeimpactofhydrologicalrisks
    hasanegativeefectoneconomicdevelopmentin
    manycountries.Infrastructureandalternatives(struc-
    turalandnon-structural)areneededtoreducethese
    negativeimpacts.Investmentinstorageandcontrol
    structuressuchasdamsisneededinmanydeveloping
    nations.Improvedforecasting,earlywarningsystems
    andinsurancemechanismsareallimportantcompo-
    nentsofastrategyforaddressingoodrisk.Water
    storageatmultiplescales,watermarketsandbanks,
    andinsurancearelikelycomponentsofastrategyfor
    addressingdrought.
    FIGURE 15.4
    Contributionofmajorconsumerstotheglobalwaterfootprint
    Source: Hoekstra and Chapagain (2007, g. 4). Reproduced by permission from Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Other
    58%
    Nigeria3%
    Brazil3%
    Pakistan2%
    Japan2%
    Mexico2%
    Thailand2%
    Indonesia
    4%
    RussianFederation4%
    USA9%
    China1%
    India13%
    Other
    44%
    WWDR4 389 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUANTITY
    notoriouslydifculttogetright.Betterunderstanding
    ofthedynamicrelationshipbetweenwaterdemand
    andsupplyandmoresophisticatedmeansofmodel-
    lingchangesindemanddynamicallyareneeded.
    Tomodelchangesindemand,theunderlyingdrivers
    ofdemandgrowth(ordecrease)mustbeunderstood.
    Theprimaryfactorsafectingwaterdemandinmuchof
    thedevelopingworldarepopulationgrowthandsocio-
    economicgrowth.Aseconomiesgrow,waterusein-
    creasessignicantly,whichtypicallyleadstoincreases
    inwaterdemand.Thedevelopingworldisprojectedto
    havemuchhighergrowthintotalwaterdemandthan
    thedevelopedworld.Increasingdemandisprojected
    tooccurinagriculture(forirrigation),domesticandin-
    dustrialsectorsalllinkedtoeconomicgrowth.Figure
    15.5showstheglobalphysicalandeconomicwater
    scarcity,thelatterofwhichisacombinationofsocio-
    economicgrowthandwateravailability.Itcanbeseen
    thatbothphysicalandeconomicwaterscarcityoccurs
    togetheralmostentirelyinregionswithhighpopula-
    tiongrowthandsituatedinthetropics.Economicwa-
    terscarcityislargelyaresultofinsufcientinfrastruc-
    tureandlackofmanagementcapacity.
    Thereisconsiderableuncertaintyinprojectionsof
    waterdemand,especiallyintheprojectionofsocio-
    economicfactorssuchaspopulationandeconomic
    growth.Withoutaccompanyingincreasesintheef-
    ciencyofwateruse,growthinwaterdemandmaybe
    unsustainableandultimatelyanimpedimenttocontin-
    uedeconomicgrowth.
    Uncertainty related to water supply
    Climatevariationshaveasignicantimpactonthewa-
    tersupplyandthusareanimportantsourceofuncer-
    tainty.Climatemodelsprojectadecreaseinprecipita-
    tionandconsequentlyinstreamowinseveralregions
    aroundtheworld.Figure15.6showswateravailability
    projectionsforthe2050sfromglobalclimatemodels
    (takingintoaccountclimatevariability,precipitation,
    temperature,topographyandsocio-economicfactors
    thatinuencedemand).Theseprojectionsshoware-
    ductioninthefutureduetoclimatechangeintropical
    regions.Whiletheseareprojectionsofsurfacewater
    availability,whichisamajorsourceofwaterforalmost
    allhumanactivities,thegroundwaterscenarioislikely
    tobesimilarorworseasreducedprecipitationleads
    toreducedrecharge.Withincreasingexploitationfrom
    socio-economicgrowth,groundwaterwillbestressed
    further.Theregionscurrentlyunderseverestresswill
    Demandhardeningoccurswhenlong-termconserva-
    tionpracticesandefciencygainsreducetheefective-
    nessofshort-termwaterconservationmeasureswithin
    agivensectorofuse.Technologicaladvancementsand
    behaviouralchangesaretheprimarydriversofincreased
    wateruseefciency.Demandhardeningincreasesaswa-
    teravailabilitybecomeseitherphysicallyoreconomically
    limiting.
    Theconceptofpeakwater(GleickandPalaniappan,
    2010)providesagooddescriptionofthedemandhard-
    eningprocess.Whenaregionextractsmorewaterfrom
    awatershedthanisnaturallyreplenished,peakrenew-
    ablewaterissaidtobereached.Watershedssuchasthe
    ColoradoRiverbasinandtheYellowRiverbasinaretwo
    examplesapproachingpeakwater.Ecologically,thiscan
    beunsustainableandamoreappropriatemetric,peak
    ecologicalwater,maybetargetedsothatenvironmental
    andecologicaldamagesareminimized.Basinsthatreach
    peakwatermayalsobeconsideredclosed;thatis,all
    utilizablewaterhasbeenallocated.Furtherallocationof
    waterfromthesystemwillresultinlesswaterforother
    sectorsorforecologicalows.Ithasbeensuggestedthat
    theUSAhasreachedpeakwater,aswithdrawalshavere-
    mainedconstantorbelowhistoricalpeakwaterwithdraw-
    alsreachedduringthelate1970s.
    Inresponsetodwindlingwateravailability,conserva-
    tionefortssuchasindoorxtureretrotprogrammes,
    outdoorwateringeducationcampaignsandtechnology
    investmentshavebeenusedtoextendexistingsupplies,
    thusincreasingdemandhardening.Thisbynomeanssug-
    geststheUSAisheadedformasswatershortages.Many
    citiesintheUSAusewatermeteringcoupledwithwater
    pricingpoliciesasanefectivecontrolofoutdoorwater
    consumption.But,despitetheefciencygainsfromme-
    teringandpricingschemes,inmuchoftheUSA,inaddi-
    tiontoothereconomicallydevelopedcountries,bothmu-
    nicipalandagriculturaluseremainsunmetered.Metering
    ofindividualunitsinmultifamilystructuresisevenless
    common.Additionalwatersavingscanbefoundinthe
    futureifcitiesmetertheirresidentsandapplyappropriate
    waterpricing.
    Gainsinxtureefciencyareanimportantdriverofin-
    doordomesticwaterdemands.IntheUSA,federalregu-
    lationsmadeintheearly1990scontinuetodecreaseper
    capitawaterconsumptionasolderxturesarereplaced
    withnewer,moreefcientxtures.InAustralia,lasting
    droughtacrossthecontinenthasincreasedthepenetra-
    tionrateofefcientxturesindomestic,agriculturaland
    industrialsectors.Nationalinitiativesforwaterre-useand
    grey-watersystemsarereducingpercapitaconsumption.
    BOX 15.1
    Conservationanddemandhardening
    CHAPTER15 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 390
    faceseveretocatastrophicstressinthefutureunder
    theseforces.
    Projectionsofwatersupplyduetoclimatevariability
    comewithlargeuncertainty.Amajorquestionthat
    emergesiswhethertheuncertainclimatechangepro-
    jectionsshouldbeusedtomakeplanningandadap-
    tationdecisions.Whiletheinformationusedforwater
    planninghasalwaysbeenuncertain,thecurrentrate
    ofpotentialchangeanddegreeofuncertaintyassoci-
    atedwithitisprobablyunprecedented.Managingthis
    uncertaintyisoneofthegreatwaterchallengesofthe
    century.
    15.3.2Managinguncertaintyandrisks
    Managingtheirreducibleuncertaintiesthatafect
    watersupply,demandandthepolicycontextisa
    signicantcomponentofanefectivewaterresources
    managementstrategy.Approachestoriskmanagement
    oferwell-developedmethodologiesforaddressing
    uncertaintiesassociatedwithhazardousevents.There
    isgrowingrecognitionthatmanyuncertaintiescan
    oferopportunitiesinadditiontorisks(e.g.deNeufville,
    2002);forexample,unexpectedlyhighowsmay
    oferopportunitiestogenerateadditionalwater
    servicebenets(suchashydropower)ifwatermanagers
    arepreparedtoaddresssuchanuncertainty.
    Ageneralframeworkforriskmanagementcanbede-
    scribedinthreesteps:hazardcharacterization,risk
    assessmentandriskmitigation.Therststepisto
    characterizeagivenevent,oftenconsideredahazard,
    intermsoftheimpactsorconsequencesitmayhave.
    Thenextstep,riskassessment,involvesactualcalcu-
    lationoftheriskdeningriskastheproductofthe
    probabilityofaneventandtheconsequencesofthat
    event.Thenalstepisthedevelopmentofastrat-
    egyforaddressingtherisksidentiedandquantied.
    Costbenetanalysishastraditionallybeenusedinthe
    developmentofsuchastrategyandtheprocessofrisk
    quanticationaccommodatesaquantitativecost
    benetanalysis.However,iftherearecostsorbenets
    thatarenoteasilyquantiedthenothermulti-
    objectivedecision-makingmethodsmaybeneeded.
    FIGURE 15.5
    Globalphysicalandeconomicwaterscarcity
    Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (2007, map 2.1, p. 63, IWMI, http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/) (from an
    International Water Management Institute analysis using the Watersim model).
    Physicalwaterscarcity
    Approachingphysical
    waterscarcity
    Economicwaterscarcity
    Littleornowaterscarcity
    Notestimated
    Denitionsandindicators
    LittleornowaterscarcityAbundantwaterresourcesrelativetousewithlessthanofwaterfromriverswithdrawnforhumanpurposes
    PhysicalwaterscarcitywaterresourcesdevelopmentisapproachingorhasexceededsustainablelimitsHorethanofriverfowsare
    withdrawnforagricultureindustryanddomesticpurposesaccountingforrecyclingofreturnfows1hisdefnitionrelatingwateravailability
    towaterdemandimpliesthatdryareasarenotnecessarilywaterscarce
    ApproachingphysicalwaterscarcityHorethanofriverfowsarewithdrawn1hesebasinswillexperiencephysicalwaterscarcityinthenearfuture
    Lconomicwaterscarcityhumaninstitutionalandfnancialcapitallimitaccesstowatereventhoughwaterinnatureisavailablelocallytomeethuman
    demandsWaterresourcesareabundantrelativetowaterusewithlessthanofwaterfromriverswithdrawnforhumanpurposesbutmalnutritionexists
    WWDR4 391 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUANTITY
    FIGURE 15.6
    Projectedpercapitawateravailabilityin2050
    Thetoppanelshowsawatershedbasisusingthemostdetaileddigitalbasinboundariesavailable,outputsofprecipita-
    tionminusevaporation(asaproxyforrunof)fromtheCCSM3climatemodel,andpopulationbasedonacombinationof
    GlobalLandScan2007currentpopulationdistributionanddownscaledCIESINcountry-levelgrowthprojections.Veryse-
    verewaterstressindicatesthat<500m
    3
    perpersonperyearoffreshwaterisprojectedforthebasin;severewaterstress,
    5001000m
    3
    perpersonperyear;somewaterstress,10001700m
    3
    perpersonperyear;andadequatewatersupply,
    >1700m
    3
    perpersonperyear.Forfurtherdetails,seehttp://www.ornl.gov/sci/knowledgediscovery/QDR/water/Glbdetbsn_
    WA2050_A2p-e_A2pop.png.
    ThebottompanelwaspreparedbyMartinaFloerkeandcolleaguesattheCentreforEnvironmentalSystemsResearch,
    UniversityofKassel,GermanyfortheBBCusingtheUKMetOfceHadleyCentregeneratedprojectionsoffuturetempera-
    tureandrainfallalongwiththeirwaterresourcesmodel,waterGAP(http://www.usf.uni-kassel.de/cesr/).
    Bothtopandbottomprojectionsareforsameassumptionsofclimatechangemitigationstrategies(A2scenario;see
    Nakicenvoicetal.,2000)andaggressivepopulationgrowth.Theseindicatetherearediferentwaystomakewateravail-
    abilityprojections(usingdiferentmodelsandscenarios).Modelsareconstantlyimproving,generatingnewinformation.
    Additionalresearchefortsarerequiredtoupdateourknowledgeconcerningpossiblefutureconditions.
    VerySevereWaterStress SevereWaterStress SomeWaterStress AdequateWaterSupply
    2050s
    Lessthan0.5-Extremestress
    Millionlitresavailableperpersonperyear
    0.5to>1.0-Highstress
    1.0to>1.7-Moderatestress 1.7andover-Nostress Nodata
    CHAPTER15 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 392
    Climaterisksareparticularlyrelevanttowaterresources
    managementandtheirnaturewarrantssomediscussion.
    Someclimateriskshaveadegreeofpredictabilityif,for
    example,theyareinuencedbyapredictableclimate
    phenomenonsuchasENSO.Anysuchpredictability
    shouldbeinvestigatedduringthehazardcharacteri-
    zationandriskassessmentstepsofriskmanagement.
    Climaterisksmayalsoberelatedtoclimateopportuni-
    tiesandawiderviewofclimateriskmanagement,such
    asconsequenceoruncertaintymanagement,shouldbe
    embraced.Finally,theadventofanthropogenicclimate
    changeandtherecognitionofthenonstationarityof
    hydrologicalrecordspresentspecialchallengestotradi-
    tionalapproachestoriskmanagement.Thecalculation
    ofprobabilitiesassociatedwithclimateorhydrological
    eventsisconfoundedbynonstationarity.Thehistori-
    calrecordisnolongerconsideredrepresentativeofthe
    future,andprojectionsfromgeneralcirculationmodels
    (GCM)arenotyetabletoproducereliablepredictions.
    Asaresult,methodsthatdependsolelyonaccuratees-
    timationsofprobabilityfacelargeshortcomings.
    Giventheuncertaintiesassociatedwithriskestima-
    tion,thereisaneedtoconsidermethodsforhandling
    thepotentialincreasingrisks.Onemethodistoiden-
    tify,considerandmanageresidualrisk.Residualrisk
    referstothoserisksthatarenotdirectlyaddressed
    byariskmanagementstrategy.Forexample,lowrisk
    eventsmaynotbedirectlyaddressedbecausethe
    costofaddressingthemexceedsthebenetsofdoing
    so.However,becauseestimatesoflowriskeventsare
    madewithunreliableprobabilityestimates,itispossi-
    blethatresidualrisksareactuallysignicant.
    Alsorelevantistheconceptofsurprise.Asurpriseis
    generallyunderstoodtobetheoccurrenceofanevent
    thathasalowprobabilityrelativetoothereventsthat
    couldoccur.Sucheventsaretypicallynotplannedfor.
    Again,becausetheprobabilityestimationmaynotbe
    reliable,itisworthconsideringhowsucheventswould
    bemanagediftheyweretooccur,evenifnothingisin-
    vestedindirectlymanagingtheiroccurrence.Doingso
    wouldimprovetherobustnessofaparticularplana
    robustplanbeingonethatworkswellenoughundera
    widerangeofpossiblefuturesratherthanjustforabest
    guessestimateofthefuture.Theutilityofrobustnessas
    aplanningcriterionreectsthegrowingawarenessof
    theinabilitytopredictthefuture(Brown,2010).
    Institutionalcomplexitiesinhibitexibilityinplanning.
    Largeandoldinstitutionsinparticulartendtohave
    entrenchedrulesandstakeholderswhoresistchange
    andscience-andknowledge-baseddecision-making.
    Developingcountriesmayhaveacomparativeadvantage
    inthisregardinthatastheyaredevelopinginstitutions
    theycaninstilexibilityinthemandlearnfromthedraw-
    backsofmaturedsystems.InthePhilippines,progress
    hasbeenmadeinimprovingreservoirperformanceinthe
    cityofManiladuetothewillingnessofcompetingwater
    userstoconsidernewapproachestomanagingdrought,
    includingtheuseofseasonalclimateforecasts(Brown
    etal.,2009).Progressisalsopossibleinmaturesystems,
    especiallywhennewinformationprovidesanopportunity
    forreconsiderationofpastassumptions.TheColorado
    Riverwaterresourcesmanagementsystemisagoodex-
    ample.MethodssuchasBayesiannetworksinwhichall
    theparticipantsandtheirprobabilisticinteractionscanbe
    representedandthesystemperformanceassessedpro-
    videanexcellentframeworkforaparticipatorysolution
    (Bromley,2005).ThereportfromtheNeWaterproject
    (http://www.newater.info)providesanexcellentsummary
    oftheidenticationofmajorsourcesofuncertaintyin
    integratedwaterresourcesmanagementpractice
    (vanderKeuretal.,2006).
    15.3.3Emergingopportunitiesformanaging
    uncertainty
    Thereisagrowinglistofmethodologiesavailablefor
    addressingthenewchallengestowaterresources
    management.Thosedescribedbelowareinvarious
    stagesofdevelopmentbutmostarestillnascentin
    theirpracticalapplication.Realizingthefullpotential
    oftheseinnovationsrequiresacollaborativeefortbe-
    tweentheresearchcommunityandthepracticingwa-
    termanagementcommunity.
    Observations, models and forecasts
    Theabilitytomonitorallaspectsofthehydrologi-
    calcyclehasneverbeenstronger.Remotesensing,
    ground-basedmonitoringandmodellingtechniques
    thatallowreal-timeobservationsandforecastsat
    multipletimescalesarenewandpotentiallyimpor-
    tanttoolstoimprovewaterresourcesmanagement.
    However,gapsbetweentheproductionofthisinfor-
    mationanditsuseinpracticearewide.
    Seasonalclimateforecastsareincreasinglyskilfuland
    thereareseveralagenciesthatprovideprobabilisticsea-
    sonalforecastsfortheentireglobe.Innovativetoolscan
    translatetheseseasonalforecaststohydrologicaland
    hydroclimateforecasts.Forexample,researchershave
    establishedconnectionsinriverbasinsaroundtheglobe
    WWDR4 393 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUANTITY
    Decadal-scale patterns of variability
    Thepaleorecordafordsalongviewofhydrologicalvari-
    abilitythatisnotpossiblewiththeobservedhydrological
    record.Recentandcurrentresearchbasedonwavelet-
    basedspectralanalysisofpaleodatarevealsdecadal-
    scalepatternsofvariabilitythatcorrelatewithlarge-scale
    multidecadalclimateforcingssuchasthePDOandAMO
    describedearlier.Betterunderstandingofthesemodesof
    variabilitycouldenhancewaterresourcesmanagement.
    Theexistenceofdecadal-scalevariabilityinthehistorical
    hydrologicalrecordimpliesthatawaterresourcesystem
    couldbenetfromexibilitytomanageperiodsofrela-
    tivelygreaterandlesswateravailability.
    Dynamic operational strategies
    Traditionalwaterresourcesmanagementprinciplesare
    basedontheassumptionthattheprobabilitydistribu-
    tionforhydrologicalstatesisthesameeveryyear;that
    is,theassumptionofclimatologythatthelong-term
    statisticsaredominantineveryyear.For
    example,reservoirrulecurvesidentifytheoptimal
    storagelevelsatvarioustimesoftheyearthatbest
    meetoperatingobjectives,consideringthetime-
    varyinghydrologicalconditions.Storageisdrawn
    downbeforeexpectedperiodsofhighinows;
    conservationstorageisbuiltupinanticipationofan
    irrigationseasonoraperiodofhighhydropower
    demand.Atypicalreservoirguidecurveisshownin
    Figure15.8.Suchcurvesaredesignedusingthe
    probabilitydistributionoftheperiodofrecord
    hydrologytoprovideacceptablelevelsofriskand
    reliabilityinmeetingoperationalobjectivesand
    avoidingdamageorcatastrophe.
    betweenstreamowsandlarge-scaleclimateforcings,
    particularlyENSO,PDOandthePacicNorthAmerican
    (PNA)pattern(Grantzetal.,2005;Regondaetal.,2006
    andreferencestherein).Usingtheseconnections,novel
    forecastmethodshavebeendevelopedtoproduceskil-
    fulstreamowforecastsatafewmonthsleadtime(e.g.
    HamletandLettenmaier,1999;Clarketal.,2001;Grantz
    etal.,2005;Regondaetal.,2006).Additionally,new
    stochasticsimulationtechniques(Rajagopalanetal.,
    2009)canbeusedtogenerateensemblesofhydrologi-
    calscenariosinawaterresourcessystemconditionalon
    large-scaleseasonalclimateforecast.Theensembles
    canbeusedinadecisiontooltoprovideestimatesof
    systemrisksattheseasonaltointerannualtimescales
    andthusenableefcientdecisions.Agooddemonstra-
    tionoftheseensembleforecastscanbefoundinGrantz
    etal.(2007)andRegondaetal.(2011).
    Paleo data
    Historicalandpaleoreconstructedstreamowand
    climatedatacanbeavaluableresourcetoquantify
    historicalclimaterisk.Forinstance,ontheColorado
    River,longpaleoreconstructionsofstreamowin-
    dicateamuchhigherfrequencyofdryspellsand
    lowowsrelativetothestreamowinthetwentieth
    century(Figure15.7).Thepaleodataprovideamore
    realisticestimateofthedroughtriskthanthehistori-
    calobservationalrecordalone.Forexample,therecent
    prolongeddrought(20002010)ontheColoradoRiver
    appearstobehighlyunusualbasedontheobserved
    databutquitecommonbasedonthelongpaleore-
    construction.Thereareemergingmethodstocombine
    observedandpaleoinformationtoobtainrobustrisk
    estimates(Prairieetal.,2008).
    FIGURE 15.7
    PaleoreconstructionoftheColoradoRiverstreamow
    Note: One acre-foot is 1,233 m
    3
    .
    Source: Based on data from Woodhouse et al. (2006) and Prairie and Callejo (2005).
    25
    23
    21
    19
    17
    15
    13
    11
    9
    7
    Flow(millionac-ft/yr)
    Time(Years)
    1490 1540 1590 1640 1690 1740 1790 1840 1890 1940 1990
    PaleoReconstruction HistoricNaturalFlow
    CHAPTER15 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 394
    Improvedforecastsandunderstandingofmulti-year
    variabilityasdescribedaboveprovidearenedun-
    derstandingoftheprobabilitydistributionseasonally
    andannually.Aseasonalforecastmayindicateamuch
    higherthannormalprobabilityoflowows.Thiscould
    belinkedtoENSOorotherclimatesignalsandhave
    multi-yearefects.Similarly,theabilitytoforecastex-
    tendedwetanddryperiodsmaysoonbepossibleas
    aresultofdecadal-scaleforecastingresearch(Nowak,
    2011).Thesescienticadvancesmakepossibletheuse
    ofdynamicoperationalstrategiessuchasreservoiror
    watersystemrulecurvesthatchangeinresponseto
    forecastsorobservations;exiblewaterallocationand
    pricingapproaches,suchasinresponsetoscarcity;
    andtheuseofeconomicmechanismstofacilitate
    waterexchanges.Adaptivereservoiroperations,
    whereinrulecurvesaremodiedtoproducemore
    efectivemanagementgivenimprovedstreamow
    forecasts,aregainingrecognition(e.g.Bayazitetal.,1990;
    YaoandGeorgakakos,2001).
    Adaptive management
    Adaptivemanagementisamethodusedtoaddress
    theuncertaintiesassociatedwithclimatechange,other
    hydrologicalchange,andourlimitedabilitytocor-
    rectlyanticipatethefutureincomplexwaterresourc-
    essystems.Theapproachwasdevelopedinecology.
    Thegeneralprincipleoftheapproachislearningby
    doinganditemphasisesmonitoringandtheability
    tochangedecisionsandupdatehypothesesonthe
    basisofobservations.Itcanbeappropriateincases
    wherereversibledecisionsarepossible,sothatadeci-
    sionmaybechangedasclimateandsocio-economic
    conditionsevolveandabetterunderstandingofthe
    systemisachieved.Sankarasubramanianetal.(2009)
    demonstratethatutilityofclimateinformationevenof
    modestaccuracy,whencoupledwithadaptiveopera-
    tions,canbenetwaterallocationprojectswithhigh
    demandtostorageratiosaswellassystemswith
    multipleusesconstrainingtheallocationprocess.The
    abilitytoingrainexibilityintoasystemimprovesthe
    opportunitiesformakinguseofadaptivemanagement
    principles.
    Scenarios-based approach
    Acommonapproachtodealingwiththeimplications
    ofclimatechangeisthescenario-basedapproach.A
    smallnumberofinternallyconsistentvisionsofthe
    futurearecreatedandplansareevaluatedaccord-
    ingtohowwelltheyperformunderthesescenarios.
    ProjectionsfromGCMrepresentinternallyconsistent
    climatescenariosthatareusedintheplanningprocess.
    TheGCMprojectionsareconvertedtohydrological
    variablesthroughaprocessthatincludesbiascorrec-
    tion,resolutionincreasesandhydrologicalmodelling,
    andthesevariablesdrivemodelsofthewaterresourc-
    essystems.Often,extremepointsoftherangeofGCM
    projectionsarechosentoattempttocapturetherange
    ofGCMuncertainty,althoughthetruerangeofclimate
    uncertaintyremainsunknown.Recentexamplesofthis
    approachincludeTraynhametal.(2011),Vanoetal.
    (2010a,2010b)andVicunaetal.(2010).Adownsideof
    thisapproachisthatwaterplannersstrugglewiththe
    verywiderangeofimpactsrepresentedbythescenar-
    ios,whichoftenincludenegligibleandsevereimpacts
    thatareconsideredequallyprobable.Itisdifcultto
    designaplanthataddressesallscenarios:thecostsof
    addressingsomescenariosareoftenexorbitant,and
    theanalysisprovidesnoinformationastowhichis
    morelikely.
    Robust decision-making methodologies
    Waterresourcesplannersandpolicy-makershavelong
    understoodthatmostdecisionsaremadeundercon-
    siderableuncertaintyrelatedtothefuture.Nonetheless,
    anthropogenicclimatechangeraisesissuesthatare
    diferentfromthetypicaluncertaintywithwhichwater
    plannersarefamiliar.Inparticular,assumptionsrelated
    totheuseofthehistoricalhydrologicalrecordarejeop-
    ardizedbytheprospectofchangingclimate.Ontheone
    hand,thewaterplannerisinformedthatstationarityis
    dead(Millyetal.,2005)andtheusualuseofthehistor-
    icalrecordforplanningisnolongervalid.Ontheother
    hand,climatechangeprojectionsfromgeneralcircula-
    tionmodels(GCM)areacknowledgedtobetoouncer-
    taintobeusedforplanningpurposesandare
    associatedwithsignicantbiases.Howaredecisionsto
    bemadewhenthefutureischaracterizednotonlyby
    uncertaintybutalsobytwoormorepotentiallycon-
    tradictoryvisionsofthehydrologicalfuture?Avariety
    ofapproacheshaveemergedthatattempttoaddress
    decision-makingunderclimateuncertainty:seeBox15.2.
    Information and communication technology
    Advancesininformationandcommunicationtechnol-
    ogiesofergreatpotentialforimprovingtheman-
    agementofwaterresources.Thelowcostofthese
    technologieshasmadethemubiquitous,including
    widespreaduseindevelopingcountries.Potential
    applicationsincludeforecasttransmittal,earlywarning
    systems,andcrowdsourcingfordatacollectionand
    monitoring.
    WWDR4 395 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUANTITY
    Advanced decision support systems
    Theapplicationofmanyscienticadvances,suchas
    probabilisticforecasting,requiresadecisionsupport
    systeminwhichcurrentandfuturestatesofthehydro-
    logicalsystemcanbemodelled,stochastichydrology
    thatreectsawiderangeofassumptionsasdescribed
    abovecanbegenerated,andvariousmanagementand
    infrastructurealternativescanbeevaluated.Decision
    supporttoolsshouldsupportthequanticationofrisk
    andreliabilityandofertheabilitytomeasureperfor-
    manceofamanagementplanwithrespecttoagreed-
    uponcriteriasuchasthereliabilityofsupplyandthe
    riskofdamagetothehumanorecologicalsystems.
    Advanceddecisionsupportsystems(ADSS)musten-
    abletheparticipatoryinvolvementofarangeofscien-
    tic,governmentandmanagementagenciesaswellas
    variousstakeholders.Suchsystemshavebeendevel-
    opedandappliedsuccessfullyinseveralbasinsandare
    underdevelopmentinothersacrosstheglobe.
    15.4Hotspots
    15.4.1India
    Indiafacesanunprecedentedcrisisinthenexttwo
    decades.Today,majorurbanareasareunabletopro-
    videareliableandregularwatersupply.Industrialand
    energydevelopmentfacewaterconstraints.Scarcity
    ofwaterforirrigationisaleadingconcernoffarm-
    ers.Thiscanbeseeninagriculturalwaterstressmaps
    (ColumbiaWaterCenter,n.d.).Ofparticularconcern
    isthatthewaterstressdramaticallyincreaseswith
    multi-yeardrought.Thisthreatensthecountrysfood
    andwatersecurity.Mightyrivers,suchastheGanges,
    aresignicantlydepletedovermuchoftheyear,and
    highlypollutedovermuchoftheircourse.Life(biodi-
    versity)abundantinIndiauntilasrecentlyasthe1990s
    isnowseriouslythreatened.Aquifers,theresourceof
    choiceduetosubsidizedenergyforpumping,present
    variablestockandquality.Notsurprisingly,aquifer
    depletionandinefcientwaterusearenowendemic.
    Uncertaintyastowhatclimatechangeportendsfor
    thewatersupplyisaconcern,buttheneedsforfood
    ofagrowingpopulationwilllikelydeterminetheshape
    ofthewatercrisisinthecountry.Thedramaticnatural
    climatevariability(seasonaltointerannualtodecadal
    tocenturyscale)anditsspatialmanifestationasoods
    anddroughtsacrossIndiaposesaseriousthreatin
    thiscontextaswaterstoresthatcouldnormallybufer
    againstsuchvariationsareexhaustedandnoinfra-
    structureormulti-scalecoordinatedplanningeforts
    areimplemented.
    FIGURE 15.8
    Examplereservoirrulecurveshowingdrawdownforspringoods,llingastheoodseasonsubsides,and
    maintenanceofsummerlevelsforwatersupply,recreationandhydropowerproduction
    FloodControl
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    E
    l
    e
    v
    a
    t
    i
    o
    n

    (
    m
    e
    t
    r
    e
    s
    )
    Recreation
    Season
    Drawdown
    Period
    FillPeriod
    ReservedforFloodControl
    MinimumOperatingGuide
    FloodGuide
    Discretionary
    ReleaseZone
    TargetedMinimum
    SummerLevel
    TypicalOperation
    CHAPTER15 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 396
    TheWorldBankwarnsofaturbulentwaterfuturefor
    Indiaabsentdramaticcoordinatedgovernmentinvest-
    mentsinwaterinfrastructure,governanceandagricul-
    turalproductivity(Briscoe,2005).TheInternational
    WaterManagementInstitute(IWMI)talksoftaming
    theanarchyofuncontrolledgroundwaterexploitation
    bythepopulationasawhole,andproposesinvest-
    mentsingroundwaterrechargeamongpolicyreforms
    (Shah,2008).
    Despitethesewarnings,ratherlimitedin-depthanaly-
    sesandprojectionsofthewaterresourcesofthecoun-
    try,sectoralandecologicaldemands,andpotential
    solutionsexist.Controlledaccesstothedetaileddata
    neededtoreconstructthepastandprojectthefuture
    andalackofinstitutionalsupportforinterdiscipli-
    naryresearchintolong-rangewaterresourcesplan-
    ningandmanagementarekeyfactorscontributingto
    thesituation.Non-governmentorganizationsareac-
    tivelobbyistsandimplementersoflocalsolutions(e.g.
    rainwaterharvesting,wellprovision,watertreatment,
    sanitationtrainingandwaterdataprovision)buttypi-
    callydonotcomeclosetomeetingtheneedsofana-
    tional,stateandlocalstrategicanalysis.
    15.4.2WesternUSA
    WesternUSAismountainous,predominantlysemi-
    aridandreceivesitswatersupplyfromsnowmelt.Its
    populationsteadilyincreasedduringthelatterhalfof
    thetwentiethcentury.Thelargepopulationcentresare
    inthesouth-westdesert,whiletheirwaterissupplied
    bytheColoradoRiver,whichoriginatesinthehigher
    elevationsoftheRockyMountainsfartothenorth.The
    waterintheriverisdividedamongsevenbasinstates
    andtwocountries(USAandMexico);thus,waterman-
    agementishighlycontentious.
    Anemergingapproachtoplanningunderclimateuncertaintyfocusesonprovidingthespecicinformationneededtoinform
    adecisionprocess.Thesedecision-basedapproachestypicallyapplydecisionanalyticstotheplanningprocesstoidentifythe
    conditionsthatfavouraparticulardecisionoveranother.
    Therstapproachisknownasidentifyingandimplementingnoregretsdecisions.Theideaisthattherearedecisionsthat
    willworkwellregardlessofthedegreeofclimatechangeoritsattributes.Thedecisionpaysofforthehistoricalrecordand
    fortheanticipatedclimatechange.Decisionssuchasthisthatareessentiallyinsensitivetofutureclimatearestraightforward
    tomakethechallengeisidentifyingthem.Basedonthedegreetowhichwatermanagerscontinuetostrugglewiththeim-
    plicationsofclimatechange,noregretsdecisionsthatadequatelyaddresstheseclimateconcernsarerare.
    Robustdecision-makingisadecision-basedapproachthatusesGCMprojectionsasscenariogeneratorsthatincorporateava-
    rietyofdecisioninputs.(Lempertetal.,2006)andaddressesdeepuncertaintybyfavouringmanagementplansthatperform
    welloverarangeofpossiblefutureconditions(Brekkeetal.,2009).Itusesclusteringtechniquestoidentifytheconditionsthat
    favourparticulardecisionsandtoassesstherobustnessofadecisionbyvaryingtheassumptionsthatunderliethoseconditions.
    Theobjectiveistoidentifydecisionsthataresuperiorregardlessofthefutureclimatethatisassumed.
    Decision-scalingusessensitivityanalysistoidentifytheclimateconditionsthatfavouronedecisionoverothers(Brownet
    al.,2010).InformationfrommultipleGCMsuperensemblesandhistoricalclimateanalysisistailoredtoestimatetherelative
    probabilityofthoseconditionscomparedtotheclimateconditionsfavouringalternativedecisions.Riskmanagementstrate-
    giesarethendevelopedtoaddresstheimplicationsoflowprobabilityoutcomes.Inallcases,theprocessbeginswiththe
    identicationofthekeyclimateinformationthatcausesaparticulardecisiontobefavouredoverothers.Thehopeisthat
    theidenticationofthesefactorsmayrevealthattheyarelessuncertainthanthespectrumofclimatechangepossibilities
    asawhole.Thisallowsevenuncertainclimatechangeprojectionstobeabletoofervaluableinformationfortheplanning
    process.
    Adaptivemanagementcanbecoupledwithrobustdecision-makingbycontinuallymonitoringtheperformanceofarobust
    plan.Atintervalsinthefuture,ifperformancedecreases,theplancanbemodiedtoimproveitsperformance.Themodi-
    cationwouldbemadewithimprovedknowledgeoffuturepossibleconditions.Anapproachthatappliesdecision-scalingto
    adaptivemanagementiscurrentlybeingadoptedintheplanfortheregulationofoutowsfromLakeSuperior(Brownetal.,
    2011).
    BOX 15.2
    Decision-makingunderclimateuncertainty
    WWDR4 397 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUANTITY
    Theriverhasextensivestorage(almostfourtimesthe
    annualaverageowintheriver),whichismanagedby
    theUnitedStatesBureauofReclamation(USBR),man-
    datedtomanagethewaterresourcesoftheColorado
    RiverbasinintheUSAandcoordinatewaterdelivery
    obligationswithMexico,underacomplicatedsetof
    decreesandrulesknownasthelawoftheriver.The
    lawoftheriverworkedwellformuchofthetwenti-
    ethcentury,whendemandwasmuchlowerthansup-
    ply.Butaperfectstormcomprisingeconomicgrowth,
    increasingpopulationandincreasingwaterdemands,
    coupledwithseveresustaineddroughtintherecent
    decade,isstressingthephysicalsystemandtheagree-
    ments.Paleoreconstructionsofstreamowinthe
    basinindicatedrierepochswithregularfrequency.In
    fact,theyindicatethatthetwentiethcentury,when
    thelawoftheriverwasdrafted,wasoneofthewet-
    test.Climatechangeprojectionsindicateasubstan-
    tialdecreaseinannualaveragestreamow,whichwill
    onlyexacerbatethesituation.Manystudies(recently
    Rajagopalanetal.,2009)underscorethisandalso
    suggestthatexibleandinnovativemanagementof
    thesystemandcollectivestakeholderparticipationcan
    instilefectiveadaptivemanagementpracticesthat
    canhelpmitigatetherisk.Studiesindicatethatthere-
    gionislikelytoexperienceseverewatersupplycrises
    inthenot-too-distantfutureifmanagementpractices
    arenotmodied(USBR,2005).
    15.4.3WestAfrica:Nigerbasin
    TheNigerRiverbasinisatransboundarybasincover-
    ingsignicantportionsofninecountriesinWestAfrica.
    Approximately100millionpeoplearedependentin
    somewayontheriverforlivelihood,trade,transpor-
    tationandfood.Thebasinisfacingcomplexproblems
    ofpovertyandlowproductivity,anditischaracterized
    byseverewaterconstraints,includingwater-bornedis-
    easesandextremeweathereventssuchasoodsand
    droughts.Managingthisriversystemhasbeenchal-
    lengedbythegrowingcompetitionforwateramong
    urban,industrial,agriculturalandecologicalusers,as
    wellasbytheday-to-day,intraseasonalandinteran-
    nualvagariesofclimatevariabilityandclimatechange.
    Pastinterannualvariabilityislargeinmagnitudecom-
    paredtoanyprojectedclimatechanges.Withinthis
    context,aclimateriskassessmentoftheinfrastructure
    investmentplanhasbeenconducted(Brown,2011).
    Duetothegreatuncertaintyofthefutureclimate,
    adecision-scalingapproachwasappliedthatbe-
    ginswithanassessmentofthepotentialimpactsof
    hypotheticalclimatechangesandthenutilizesclimate
    informationtoassessthelikelihoodofproblematiccli-
    matechanges(Brown,2011).Theresultinganalysisin-
    dicatedthattheinvestmentplanwaslargelywellpre-
    paredformoderateclimatechangesorless.Onlyvery
    largereductions(about20%)inprecipitationwould
    posesignicantimpacts.Thesubsequentclimateanal-
    ysisrevealedthatsuchchangesarenotcommonin
    climateprojectionsfortheregionandthusareconsid-
    eredtohavealowlikelihood.Toenhanceitsprepared-
    nessforfutureclimatevariabilityandchange,theuse
    ofseasonalhydrologicalforecastsiscurrentlybeing
    investigatedasanadditionaladaptationstrategy.
    15.4.4EastAfrica:Nilebasin
    TheNile,thelongestriverintheworldatabout
    6700km,drainsabout3millionkm
    2
    andrunsthrough
    10riparianAfricancountries.TheNilecomprisestwo
    mainriversystems:theWhiteNileandtheBlueNile.
    TheWhiteNilehasitssourceintheEquatorialLakes
    PlateauwhereitoriginatesaboveLakeVictoria,the
    secondlargestfreshwaterlakeintheworld,andsup-
    portspopulationsandecosystemsofsixEastern
    Africanations:Burundi,Rwanda,Tanzania,Kenya,
    DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,andUganda.The
    BlueNileoriginatesintheEthiopianhighlandsand
    owswesttomeettheWhiteNileatKhartoumin
    Sudan.ThemainNileowsnorthfromthisconuence
    totheHighAswanDaminEgypt,thencontinuesnorth
    andemptiesintotheMediterraneanSeathrougha
    largedelta.ThetotalpopulationofNilebasincountries
    isabout300million,andmorethanhalfofthispopu-
    lationisdependentontheNile.Theriversupportspar-
    ticularlylargepopulationsinEgypt,Sudan,Ethiopia
    andUganda.Thepopulationinthesecountriesisex-
    pectedtoincreasebyabout50%inthenext20years.
    Theefectsofclimatechangearenotcertain,although
    itislikelythataridcountrieswillbecomewarmeras
    morewaterwillevaporate.Analystsexpectthatfuture
    stresseswillbedueingreatparttopopulationand
    developmentpressures,andwillbeaggravatedbycli-
    matechange.Egypt,forexample,isprojectedtohave
    in2025onlyabouthalfthepercapitawateravailabil-
    itythatithadin1990.
    15.4.5Australia
    MuchofAustraliaspopulationisconnedtoanar-
    rowstripalongthecoastline,whichmakesurbanwa-
    tersupplyamajorchallengeforthepresentandan
    evenbiggeroneforthefuture,asclimatechangeis
    CHAPTER15 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 398
    projectedtoleadtoareductioninoverallprecipitation.
    Whilemanystudiescommentonthelikelyreduction
    inrainfallacrossthecontinentinawarmerclimate,itis
    generallyacceptedthatthefuturewillseeanincrease
    inevaporation(JohnsonandSharma,2010),resulting
    inasignicantreductioninthecontinentsalreadylow
    wateravailability.Australiasfarmingheartland,the
    Murray-Darlingbasin,islikelytoseeareductioninwa-
    tersupplytoservethedemandsforirrigation,urban
    useandindustryalongwithanincreaseinthevulner-
    abilityofmigratorybirdsvisitingfreshwaterwetlands
    (Hennesseyetal,2007).
    15.4.6SouthAmerica
    SouthAmericaisalargecontinentwithawiderange
    ofgeomorphologicalandclimaticfeatures,suchas
    thedesertlandsalongthewesterncoastsofPeruand
    Chile,theAndesMountainsinwesternSouthAmerica,
    andtheAmazonforestbasininPeruandBrazil.Thus
    onendsavarietyofwaterresourcesproblemsthat
    aretypicalofcertainregionssuchasashooding
    inmanyhigh-gradientmountainrivers,large-scale
    oodsandinundationsinlargerivers(e.g.theParana
    andAmazonbasins),andperiodsoflowowsand
    droughtsinmanyregions.
    Duringthepastfewyears,theeconomiesofseveral
    SouthAmericancountrieshavebeendevelopingsig-
    nicantly,makingthemattractiveforcapitalinvest-
    mentandgrowth.Oneofthereasonsforsuchun-
    precedentedgrowthhasbeentheminingindustry.For
    example,manyregionsinPeruhaveimportantmineral
    stockandhaveattractedtheattentionofmajormin-
    ingcorporations(Salasetal.,2008).Whilethishas
    broughtemploymentopportunitiesforthousandsof
    Peruvianworkersandhashelpedboosttheregional
    andnationaleconomy,ithasalsobroughtanumberof
    concernsrelatedtotheimpactofminingoperationson
    waterresourcesandtheenvironment.Theseimpacts
    includeefectsonthewaterquantityandqualityof
    nearbystreams,depletionofgroundwaterlevelsand
    waterowfromsprings,andincreasedsoilerosion.In
    addition,theminingboomhasraisedconcernsabout
    thevulnerabilityofinhabitants,livestock,wildlife,veg-
    etation,soilandwatertoanytoxicwastethatmayre-
    sultfromindustrialoperationsandaccidents.
    Anadditionalwater-relatedproblemthathasbecome
    relevantinmanySouthAmericancountriesinthepast
    decadesrelatestotheaccelerateddeglaciationofthe
    tropicalAndesmountains,dueto,ithasbeenargued,
    theefectsofglobalwarming.Forexample,Peruhas
    lostatleast22%ofitsglacierssurfacesince1970,
    afectingsomeofthewatersupplyinthePeruvian
    highlands.TheWhiteCordillera,where35%of
    Peruvianglaciersarelocated,havelostabout
    190km
    2
    oficesurface;forexample,theBroggiglacier
    hasretreatedabout950mintheperiod19482004
    andthePastoruriglacierabout490mintheperiod
    19802005thelatterglacierhasbeenclosedto
    tourismforsafetyreasons(PUCP,2008).


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    UNEP-DHICentreforWaterandEnvironment

    AuthorsMogensDyhr-Nielsen,GarethJamesLloyd,andPaulGlennie
    ContributorPeterKoefoedBjrnsen
    AcknowledgementBrgeStorm
    CHAPTER 16
    State of the resource: Quality
    UNPhoto/GillFickling

    A global water quality assessment framework is needed. While there are many ways to
    address water quality, from an international to a household scale, there is an urgent lack of
    water quality data to support decision-making and management processes. An assessment
    framework should draw on national data sources. The motivation for such a framework is to
    better understand the state of water quality and its causes; understand recent trends and
    identify hot spots; test and validate policy and management options; provide a foundation
    for scenarios that can be used to understand and plan for appropriate future actions; and
    provide much needed monitoring bench markers.
    Water quality is inextricably linked with water quantity as both are key determinants of
    supply. Water quality degradation is not only a product of external pollutants but is also
    related to quantity depletion. The problem of water quality can be expected to increase
    as water scarcity increases. In the past, quality and quantity issues have generally been
    considered separately. Policy-makers must make a concerted efort to better integrate the
    two issues. In turn they need the support of the research community who can help to better
    quantify the problems, as well as the remedial solutions.
    Socio-economic development is dependent on water quality. There are well-documented
    human and ecosystem health risks linked to poor water quality that also threaten socio-
    economic development. Cost-efective options for collecting, treating and disposing of
    human waste must still be combined with public education eforts on the environment.
    Eforts must be directed toward industries using or producing toxic substances.
    Development of clean technology and substitution processes, combined with cost-efcient
    treatment options, is a priority. The control of non-point sources of pollution, particularly
    nutrients leading to eutrophication, is an increasing global challenge. Institutional eforts
    are also needed to strengthen emergency responses when water sources are threatened or
    destroyed, and greater attention needs to be given to enforcing existing regulations.
    Poor water quality is expensive. The costs of poor water quality can be signicant:
    degradation of ecosystems, health-related costs and their impacts on economic activities,
    increased treatment costs and reduced property values among others. Conversely,
    signicant savings can be can be made by improving or ensuring that water quality is
    maintained, such as lives saved, reduced industrial production costs and water treatment
    costs. More research is needed to better understand and quantify the economic costs and
    benets of ecosystem services.
    WWDR4 403 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUALITY
    16.1Introduction
    Safe drinking water and basic sanitation are intrinsic
    to human survival, well-being and dignity. Without
    a serious advance in implementing the water and
    sanitation agenda, there is little prospect of achiev-
    ing development for all. (United Nations Secretary
    General Ban Ki-moon, 2008)
    Goodwaterqualityisanimportantyetvulnerablede-
    velopmentasset,andessentialformaintainingeco-
    systemhealth.Waterqualityisinextricablylinkedwith
    waterquantity.Poorqualitywaterthatcannotbeused
    fordrinking,bathing,industryoragriculturereducesthe
    amountofuseablewater(UNEP,2010).Moreover,over-
    useofwatermayleadtoqualitydegradation.Forexam-
    ple,over-abstractionofgroundwatercanleadtosaline
    intrusionincoastalareas,ortohigherconcentrations
    ofnaturallyoccurringtoxiccompounds(Stellar,2010),
    whereasextractionofsurfacewatercanleadtohigh
    pollutantconcentrationsduringlowowconditions.
    Thehealthrisksrelatedtodrinkingwatersupplyand
    sanitationaregenerallyacknowledgedasapriority
    concernofglobalsignicance,asstressedintheabove
    quotebyUnitedNations(UN)SecretaryGeneralBan
    Ki-moon(2008).Approximately3.5millionpeopledie
    eachyearduetoinadequatewatersupply,sanitation,
    andhygiene,predominantlyindevelopingcountries
    (WHO,2008a).Releaseoftoxicwastesfromwaste
    dumpsandindustriesisamajorthreattotheprovision
    ofsafewaterinthedevelopedworld.
    Ecosystemhealthhashistoricallybeenaconcernof
    thericher,moredevelopedcountries.However,the
    increasingrecognitionofthemanybenetsoflife-
    sustainingecosystemgoodsandservices,suchas
    provisionoffoodandbre,hasmadeecosystem
    healthandvulnerabilityanimportantsocio-economic
    issue,eveninthepoorestcountries.
    Poorwaterqualitycanleadtosignicantandvaried
    economiccosts,includingdegradationofecosystem
    services;healthcare;agricultureandindustrialproduc-
    tioncosts;lackoftourism;increasedwatertreatment
    costs;andreducedpropertyvalues(UNEP,2010).For
    example,theestimatedcostsofpoor-qualitywaterin
    countriesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricarange
    between0.5and2.5%ofGrossDomesticProduct
    (GDP)(WorldBank,2007).Asthewaterresourcesis
    becomingincreasinglyscarceinthefuture,thecosts
    associatedwithaddressingwaterqualityproblemsis
    expectedtoincreaseandtheconsequencesofnotad-
    dressingsuchissuesinatimelymannerareexpected
    toworsen.
    Waterqualityisaglobalconcernasrisksofdegrada-
    tiontranslatedirectlyintosocialandeconomicim-
    pacts.Improvedmanagementofvulnerabilityandrisk
    mustfocusontheunknownandtheunexpectedinan
    eraofacceleratedchanges.Giventhattheworldswa-
    terqualitysituationispoorlyunderstood,animportant
    stepistodevelopaglobalwaterqualityassessment
    frameworktoreducetheinformationgapandsupport
    decision-makingandmanagementprocesses.
    16.2Naturalprocessescombinedwithsocial
    andeconomicdriversofwaterqualityrisks
    Waterqualityconditionsaretheresultofavariety
    ofpressurescreatedbymanydrivers.Acausalchain
    linksdriverstoimpactsonwaterqualityandfurtherto
    socio-economicconcernsabouthumanandecosystem
    health.Identicationofthesedriverscanreducerisks
    andvulnerabilitiesthroughappropriatemanagement.
    Driversaretheexternalcausesofchangesinwater
    quality.Insomeinstancestheymaybeunderthedirect
    controlofwatermanagers(likewastewatertreatment),
    althoughmoretypicallytheircontrolislargelybeyond
    theinuenceofwatermanagement.Themaindrivers
    maybroadlybedividedintwoseparategroups:social
    andeconomic.Assessmentandconsensusonthepri-
    marycausalchainsbetweendrivers,waterqualityand
    publicconcernsareapreconditionfordevelopingac-
    tionstoaddressthem.
    Beforeconsideringthesedriversindetail,itisworth
    lookingattheroleofnaturalprocesses.
    16.2.1Naturalprocesses
    Thehydrologicalcycleisthemostimportantnatural
    processinuencingfreshwaterquality.Forexample,at-
    mospherictransportationisanaturalmechanismthat
    caninuencewaterqualitybycarryinganddepositing
    atmosphericpollutionfromonelocationtoanother.
    Sulphuremissionsfromfossilfuelscanbetransported
    overlongdistancesandprecipitateasacidrain.Insen-
    sitivelakesandriverswithlimitedbufercapacity,they
    maycauseacidicationontheecosystems.Sulphur
    emissioncontrolhassignicantlyreducedtheissueof
    acidrainindevelopedcountries,althoughmanypower
    plantsstilllackpropertreatmentmethods.
    CHAPTER16 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 404
    Climateprocessesandassociatedclimatevariability
    andchangeinuencethehydrologicalcycle.Managing
    risksassociatedwithclimatechangeiscomplicatedby
    thechallengesofdeterminingtheresultingimpacts.
    Itisreasonabletoexpectthattheglobaltemperature
    willrisebymorethan2C,andperhapsbymorethan
    3C,bytheyear2050.TheIntergovernmentalPanel
    onClimateChangeispredictingmajorrisksforserious
    impacts,althoughitemphasizesthattherearestillma-
    joruncertaintiesinitsforecasts(IPCC,2008).
    Manyimpactsmaynotmanifestthemselvesforseveral
    decades,duringwhichtimepromisingprogresscould
    bemade.Nevertheless,someissuesneedimmedi-
    ateattentioninregardtoriskmanagement,asthere
    areclearindicationsthatclimaticeventsarebecom-
    ingincreasinglyerraticandviolent.Majoroodscan
    destroysafewatersuppliesandsewagetreatment
    plants,leavingcommunitieswithcontaminatedwaters.
    Heavyrainsandoodscanincreaseerosionandsedi-
    mentation,whileforestresduringdroughtscanalso
    increaseerosionrisks.
    Droughtsandextremelowowsinwatersystems
    reduceecosystemcapacitytoabsorbandprocess
    contaminatedwaters.Estuariesmaybecomeafected
    byincreasingsaltwaterintrusion,asintheMurray-
    DarlinginAustralia(Box16.1),whilesealevelrisecan
    increasesaltintrusion,afectingmajorurbanwater
    supplies,aswellasfreshwaterecosystemstability
    andproductivity.
    16.2.2Socialdrivers
    Socialdrivershavereceivedlittleattentioninwater
    managementeforts.Manyemergingissuesinwa-
    terqualitymanagementarestronglyrelatedtosocial
    driverscausingwastedischargesandassociatedwater
    qualityproblems.
    Socialandpoliticalconictsmayjeopardizewater
    managementeforts,particularlyintransboundarysit-
    uations.Agreementsfrequentlyfocusonwaterquan-
    tity,asitisperceivedasmoreimportant,andgenerally
    easiertomeasurethanwaterquality.Waterqualityis
    oftenneglectedinagreements,althoughconsidering
    andimprovingwaterqualitycouldbenetallparties
    (EleftheriadouandMylopoulos,2008).
    Communityhabits,preferencesandconsumption
    patternsbringadditionalsocialdimensionstouncer-
    taintiesinwaterqualitymanagement.Culturalhab-
    itsofwastedisposalaredifculttochange,notleast
    inmanufacturingenterprisesandfarmingpractices.
    Increasingneedsforcommodities,suchasbiofuels
    andmeatproductsinbothdevelopedandemerging
    economies,putnewpressuresonalready-intensiveag-
    riculturalactivities,andmayincreasenutrientandpes-
    ticidecontamination.Theproductionandsubsequent
    wastedepositionofanincreasingnumberofcomplex
    chemicalsubstancesalsocreatesnewandunexpected
    impacts.
    Populationgrowthisawell-establisheddriverofhu-
    manwastewaterloads.Demographicforecastsare
    well-developed,butassessmentoffuturemigrations,
    particularlytourbanareas,wheremorethan50%of
    theworldspopulationalreadylive,ismoreuncertain.
    Highpopulationdensitymaycreatecriticalpollution
    hotspots.Anestimated2.6billionpeopleworldwide
    livewithoutadequatesanitationfacilities(WHOand
    UNICEF,2010),andthemajorityofwastewaterinde-
    velopingcountriesisdischargeduntreatedintoreceiv-
    ingwaterbodies(Corcoranetal.,2010).
    Rudimentarycontrolofsolidwastedumpingcancre-
    atesubstantialrisksofleakageoftoxicchemicalto
    bothriversandgroundwaterresources.Evenwhere
    treatmentplantsexist,inefcientoperationanddis-
    posalofwastesludgemaycontaminatesoilsand
    groundwater.
    Militaryconictsarealsodriversthatcausemigration
    ofmillionsofpeopleannually,creatingincreasingrisks
    TheMurray-DarlingBasin(MDB)coversover1millionkm
    2
    ,
    coveringfourstatesinAustralia,withthecityofAdelaide
    atitsmouth.Partoftheagreementtomanagethebasin
    istoensurethesalinityatAdelaideislessthan800elec-
    tricalconductivity(EC)atleast95%ofthetime.Inthe
    2000stheMDBexperiencedsomeofthelowestrecord-
    edrainfallsinthelast100years,reducingriverowsand
    Adelaideswatersupply.Thedroughthashighlightedthe
    increasedrisksofsalinityintrusionintotheestuaryunder
    changingclimaticconditions.Responseoptionsinclude
    ensuringmoreowreachesthemouth,butthiswateris
    underhighdemandfromupstreamusers,hencerequiring
    acatchment-widemanagementapproach.
    Source: Adamson et al. (2009)
    BOX 16.1
    Risksofsalinityintrusionthreatenthewatersupply
    ofAdelaide,Australia
    WWDR4 405 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUALITY
    fordevelopingpollutionhotspotsandunsustainable
    pressuresontheafectedecosystems.
    16.2.3Economicdrivers
    Theimportanceofeconomicdriversiswell-established
    inwatermanagement,andseveralsectorsaredis-
    cussedinseparatechallengeareareportsinthisedi-
    tionoftheWorld Water Development Report.The
    impactsofeconomicgrowthonurbansettlements,
    industrialdevelopmentandfoodproductiontranslate
    directlyintoincreasingrisksandemergingwater
    qualityissues.Thedirecteconomicdriversare
    primarilytowastedischargesandconstructionof
    infrastructuresuchasbarrages,damsanddiversions.
    Agricultureaccountsforabout70%ofglobalwater
    useandthepotentialriskofwaterqualityimpacts
    ofagriculturalreturnowsisthereforesignicant.
    Agriculturalpracticescausenutrientcontamina-
    tion,andthesectoristhemajordriverofeutrophica-
    tion,exceptinareaswithhighurbanconcentrations.
    Nutrientenrichmenthasbecomeoneoftheplanets
    mostwidespreadwaterqualityproblems(WWAP,
    2009).Further,pesticideapplicationisestimated
    tobeovertwomillionmetrictonnesperyearona
    globalscale(UNEP,2010).Thesetoxicsubstances
    maycarrysubstantialriskstothehealthandproduc-
    tivityofaquaticecosystems,althoughthebanningof
    certainsubstancesandintegratedpestmanagement
    hascontributedtoreducedrisksofpesticidepollution.
    FIGURE 16.1
    Hazardouswastegenerationin2001asreportedbythePartiestotheBaselConvention
    Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/hazardous_waste_generation_in_2001_as_reported_by_the_parties_to_the_
    basel_convention, a map by P. Rekacewicz, with source Basel Convention).

    China
    Australia
    Iran
    Niger
    Ukraine
    Spain
    Uzbekistan
    Morocco
    Italy
    Malaysia
    Cuba
    0
    5
    10
    15
    Milliontonnes
    Finland
    Germany
    UnitedKingdom
    Kyrgyzstan
    Ireland
    Benin
    Portugal
    SouthKorea
    Georgia
    SriLanka
    Estonia
    Netherlands
    Iceland
    Romania
    Israel
    Kuwait
    Cyprus
    SaintLucia
    Norway
    Bulgaria
    CHAPTER16 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 406
    Intensivemeatproductioninpigfarmsandfeedlots
    mayalsocreateharmfullocalwatercontaminationin
    theformofbiologicaloxygendemand(BOD),ammo-
    nia,andnutrients.
    Pulpandfoodprocessingindustriesmayalsocreate
    untreatedBODandnutrientrichdischarges,potential-
    lyleadingtooxygendecits,eutrophicationandgen-
    eralecosystemdegradation.
    Aquaculturecanalsobeanimportantsourceofwater
    pollution.Aparticularconcerniscontaminationofthe
    naturalenvironmentwithdiseases.Suchdiseaseshave
    seriouslydegradedlargenumbersofestuarineecosys-
    temsanddestroyedthepotentialforfurtheraquacul-
    tureproduction.
    Industrialdevelopmentisakeydriverbehindtherisk
    ofhazardoussubstancescontamination.Technological
    developmentcreatesmoreconsumergoodsintroduc-
    ingnewtoxicandhazardouschemicals(Figure16.1).
    Inthedevelopingworld,enforcementofenvironmental
    standardsischallenging,makingitdifculttoprevent
    releasesofuntreatedindustrialwastesintofreshwa-
    terbodies.Globalizationhasincreasedtherisksof
    environmentaldumping,bothintheformofpolluting
    FIGURE 16.2
    Hazardousindustrialsite,waterpollutionandmininghotspotsintheBalkans
    Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/balkans-hazardous-industrial-sites-water-pollution-and-mining-hot-spots, a map
    by UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Europe).
    Kozloduy
    Krsko
    (Slovenia)
    ROMANIA M A MA
    CROATIA TIA TIA
    SERBIA RBIA S
    MONTENEGRO
    BULGARIA RIA R A BU AAR
    EDONIA A MACE M A E
    ALBANIA A A AAA AAAAAA AN
    Kosovo osovo v oosov
    BOSNIAAND A ANDD
    VINA HERZEGOV V VI
    ofSrpska cof epublic lico Rep p Rep kka psk co Rep p
    odina ojvodi VVojv oj ojv
    Federationof t o ti ati
    Bosniaand nnnd nd
    vina HHerzegovi He Hee He Herz vi
    GREECE RRE
    ITALY
    SOFIA
    BELGRADE
    TIRANA
    SARAJEVO
    ZAGREB
    SKOPJE
    Pernik
    Kumanovo
    Tetovo
    Gostivar
    Bitola
    Veles
    Probistip
    Durres
    Fushe-Arrez
    Elbasan
    Shkoder
    Vlore
    PODGORICA
    Zenica
    Vares
    Tuzla
    Subotica
    NoviSad
    Pancevo
    Leskovac
    Nis
    Pristina
    Trepca
    Zvecan
    Gnjilan
    Jegunovce
    Kicevo
    Kocani
    Rubik
    Furshe-Kruje
    Ohrid
    Niksic
    Tivat
    Kotor
    Cetinje
    Berane
    Rozaje
    Kragujevac
    Cerovo
    Doboj
    Maglaj
    Lukavac
    Konjic
    Patos
    Ballsh
    Negotino
    Smederevo
    Kostolac
    Lazarevac
    Pljevlja
    Ugljevik
    Gacko
    Cacak
    Fier
    Zletovo
    Sabac
    Prahovo
    Jajce
    Lucani
    Kakanj
    Sharra
    BiracZvornick
    Srebrenica
    Radovis
    Kriva
    Palanka
    Sasa
    Kavadarci
    Suvodol
    Bucim
    Lojane
    Krupanj
    Kolubara
    Veliki
    Madjan
    Majdanpek
    VelikiKrivelj
    Bor
    Zajaca
    Mojkovacand
    Brskovo
    Suplja
    Djakovic
    Badovac
    Leposavic
    TuneliiPare
    KrivaFeja
    Rudnik
    KosovskaMitrovica
    Brcko
    A
    D
    R
    I
    A
    T
    I
    C

    S
    E
    A
    Smeltercomplex-
    Ferrochromium,Fe
    (steel)&Nismelters
    Cr&Sbmine&
    beneciationmill
    Pb-Zn
    tailingsdam
    Fe-Ni&Sbmine(s)
    &ferronickelsmelter
    Pb-Znmine
    Cumine&mill
    Pb-Znmine&mill
    ElectrolyticZn
    smelter&renery
    Cumining,concentration,
    smelting,renery,alloying,etc...
    Lignitemine
    &ashdeposits
    Cumine&mill
    Cumine&
    beneciationcomplex
    Pb-Znmine&mill
    Pb-Znmine
    &mill
    Pb-Znmine
    &mill
    Republicboundary
    Autonomousboundary 1to5millioninhabitants
    Nationalcapital
    100000to1million Inter-entityboundaryline
    Hazardous
    industrialsite
    Miningsite
    Wastedisposalsite
    Nuclearpower
    generationsite
    Seriouswater
    pollution
    0 100 200
    Kilometres
    300
    Miningindustry
    hotspots
    Theboundariesandnamesshownandthedesignationsused
    onthismapdonotimplyofcialendorsementoracceptance
    bytheUnitedNations.
    2
    6
    1
    WWDR4 407 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUALITY
    industries,andasdirectexportsofchemicalwastes
    fromdevelopedoremergingeconomiestodevelop-
    ingcountries.Industrialaccidentsinvolvingdangerous
    chemicals(notleastduringnaturaldisasters)alsocre-
    aterisksofspillstosurfacewaterandgroundwater.
    Energyproductionanddistributionisamaincause
    ofoilcontamination.Hydrocarbonsarebiodegrad-
    ableinsmallconcentrations,butmajorleaksandac-
    cidents(includingsabotage)createseverecontami-
    nationrisks.Further,shippingofhydrocarbonsover
    theoceansaswellasininlandwaterwayscreatesalso
    risksofspills.Coolingwaterreleasesandbottomwa-
    terreleasesfromhydropowerreservoirsmaycause
    temperatureshockstoecosystems,thoughcangener-
    allybecontrolledbyadequatelegislation.Fossilfuel
    powerplantsemitlargeamountsofsulphates,which
    cancontaminatesoilandsurfacewaterthroughacid
    rain.Acidrainwasacommonprobleminindustrialized
    countriesinthe1980s,butthroughlegislationonemis-
    sionslimitsandcleaningtechnology,thesituationis
    vastlyimproved,thoughstillpresent.Today,inemerg-
    ingeconomieswithrapidlyexpandingfossilfuelpower
    industries,acidrainisincreasing.In2006,one-thirdof
    Chinawasafectedbyacidrain,posingamajorthreat
    tosoilandfoodsafety(ZijunLi,2006).WhileChina
    hasimplementedprogramstoreducesulphateemis-
    sions,gainsarebeingofsetbyincreasesinnitrogen
    emissions(Zhaoetal.,2009).
    Arapidlyemergingriskissueistheintroductionof
    biofuelsasaclimatechangemitigationstrategy.Aside
    fromthepotentiallydetrimentalimpactstofoodpro-
    duction,thisactivityinvolvesintensivecultivationprac-
    ticesrequiringhighuseoffertilizersandpesticides.
    Miningcreatescontaminationrisksfromhazardous
    substancesandacidication(Figure16.2).Minedrain-
    agewaterscanbeextremelypollutedbysaltsinthe
    groundwateritself;metalssuchaslead,copper,arse-
    nicandzincpresentinthesourcerock;sulphurcom-
    poundsleachedfromrock;andmercuryorothermate-
    rialsusedinextractionandprocessing.ThepHofthese
    drainagewaterscanbehighlyvariable.Somemine
    drainageisextremelyacidic,withapHof23;other
    sourcematerialscanleadtoveryalkalinedischarges
    (UNEP,2010).
    Numeroussmall-scaleandprimitiveminingopera-
    tionsarecarriedoutindevelopingcountrieswithno
    orlimitedcontrol.Artisanalandsmall-scaleminingis
    practicedinabout50countriesbypeoplelivinginthe
    poorestandmostremoteruralareas,withfewemploy-
    mentalternatives.Anestimated13millionpeopleare
    engagedinartisanalandsmall-scalemining,inuenc-
    ingthelivelihoodofadditional80100millionpeople
    (Hentschel,2002).Thesenumbersarelikelytoin-
    crease,causedbyhigherpricesanddemandsformin-
    erals,bothinOrganisationforEconomicCo-operation
    andDevelopment(OECD)countriesandemerging
    economies,suchasChina,IndiaandBrazil.
    Forestloggingactivitiesareoftenconductedwithout
    efcienterosioncontrolpracticesjeopardizingboth
    environmentalconditionsandsafewatersupplies.This
    alsoapplieswhennaturalforestsarereplacedbyoil
    palmplantationsforbiofuelproduction.
    Tourismgenerallyprovidesastrongincentivetoprotect
    theenvironmentandwaterquality,becauseahealthy
    environmentiswhatattractsitstrade.Assuch,tourism
    developmentmaybecomeapositivedriver,ifproperly
    advisedandfacilitated,buturbanizationandlackof
    properwastetreatmenthavedestroyedrecreational
    assets.
    Thenancialsectorisnormallynotassociatedwith
    waterqualityrisks.However,thecurrentglobalnan-
    cialcrisishashadapotentiallysignicantnegative
    impactonprivatesectorinvestmentsincleantech-
    nology,productionsafetyandwastewatertreatment.
    Despiteincreasedgovernmentsupporttostimulus
    Simplymaintainingthecurrentpercentageofurbanpop-
    ulationwithaccesstoimprovedsanitationoverthenext
    15yearswillrequireextendingaccesstoover800million
    urbanresidents.However,pipedwastewatersystemsmay
    betoocostlytoapplyonawidescale,particularlyinin-
    formalurbansettlements,becauseofinfrastructuraland
    geographiccostconstraints,aswellastherelativelycost
    prohibitivehook-upexpensesforindividualhouseholds
    thatlackthecapacitytopay.Asaresult,manycountries
    assignalowerpriorityforsanitation,partlyasaresult
    ofthehighinvestmentcosts,andpartlybecauseofthe
    lowerperceivedbenets(individualandsocietal)ofsani-
    tationservices,comparedtowatersupplyinvestments.
    Accordingly,globalsanitationinvestmentcomprisesonly
    20%ofthetotalinvestedinthewaterandsanitationde-
    velopmentsector.
    Source: Reproduced from USAID (2010).
    BOX 16.2
    Financingandcostrecovery
    CHAPTER16 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 408
    naturallyoccurringcompoundsthatbecomedanger-
    ouslyhighastheamountofwaterdwindles.InIndia,
    uorosispotentiallythreatensordirectlyafectsmil-
    lionsofpeople(Box16.4).Groundwaterqualitymay
    alsobeafectedbyincreasingsalinitylevelsasaresult
    ofsaltwaterintrusionintotheircoastalaquifers,asob-
    servedinCyprusandtheGazaStrip(Stellar,2010).
    Similarly,overuseofsurfacewaterreducesthenatu-
    ralowandincreasestheconcentrationofharm-
    fulsubstancespresentinthewaterduetopollution.
    AccordingtoStellar(2010),Amarkedexampleofthis
    isthe...RioGrandeRiver,wheredecreasedowsin
    summermonthscoincidewithlargedeclinesinwater
    quality.Duringthedryseason,pathogenconcentra-
    tionsincreasebyalmost100times.
    Itisimportanttoacknowledgethatthereisaspectrum
    ofqualityquantityinteractions.Somewaterissuesare
    purelyqualityrelated;thisreferstowatersourcesthat
    aresimplyover-pollutedasopposedtobeingover-
    used.Otherwaterqualityproblemshavebothquantity
    andqualitycomponents,forexampleinconnection
    withminingactivities.
    16.4Humanhealthrisksrelatedtowater
    quality
    Reductionofhumanhealthrisksareimportantlo-
    cal,nationalandglobalpriorities,asexpressedinthe
    MillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs).Waterborne
    diseasesaremajorglobalkillers,takingmillionsoflives
    asadirectresultofunsafedrinkingwater,andinad-
    equatesanitationandhygiene.
    Majorhumanhealthrisksfromuseofunsafesur-
    faceandgroundwaterarerelatedtothepresence
    MillionsofpeopleinIndiaarethreatenedordirectlyaf-
    fectedbyuorosiscausedbygroundwaterthatcontains
    excessivenaturaluoridelevels.Indiasescalatingwater
    stressisforcingpeopletosearchforwaterdeeper
    underground,whichismorecontaminatedwithuoride.
    FluorosisisalsoaproblemincountriessuchasChile,
    EthiopiaandUzbekistantoChina,wheretherearean
    estimated1.6millionvictims.
    Source: Shah and Indu (2008).
    BOX 16.4
    Reducedwaterquantityequalsreducedwater
    quality:FluorosisinIndia
    PeruisLatinAmericasmostwater-stressedcountry.
    WaterdrainingfromtheAndeanhighlandsservesasa
    watertowerthatsupportsthedownstreampopulation
    andagriculturalactivities.Manyminingconcessionsare
    locatedinheadwaterareasinthehighAndes,andmining
    canadverselyafectwaterqualitydownstream,withim-
    pactspotentiallylastingforgenerations.
    Source: Bebbington and Williams (2008). Photo: Paulo Tomaz at
    Wikimedia (http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Antamina_
    Mine_Tailings_Pond.jpg)
    BOX 16.3
    Waterqualityandquantityimpactsofminingin
    Peru
    packages,thecrisishasreducedgovernmentfundsfor
    publicmitigationandadaptationresponses,suchas
    urbansewagesystemsandtreatmentplants(Box16.2).
    Thisparticularlyappliestointernationaldevelopment
    funding(CommitteeofAfricanFinanceMinistersand
    CentralBankGovernors,2009andUNECA,2009).
    16.3Relationshipbetweenwaterquantity
    andwaterquality
    Waterqualityisjustasimportantaswaterquantity
    forsatisfyingbasichumanandenvironmentalneeds,
    yetithasreceivedfarlessinvestment,scienticsup-
    portandpublicattentioninrecentdecades,even
    thoughthetwoissuesarecloselylinked(Biswasand
    Tortajada,2011).
    Poorwaterqualityreducestheamountofwateravail-
    ablefordrinking,industrialandagriculturalpurposes
    (UNEP,2010)(Box16.3).Themorepollutedthewater
    is,thegreaterthecostoftreatmenttoreturnittoa
    useablestandard.
    Excessivepumpingofgroundwatercanimpactthe
    waterqualitythroughincreasedconcentrationsof
    WWDR4 409 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUALITY
    Massiveefortshavebeenmadetoreducerisksofwa-
    terbornecontaminationbyestablishingpipeddrinking
    watersuppliesinordertoreachtheMDGs.
    Diarrhoeaistypicallytransmittedbytheconsumption
    offoodorwatercontaminatedwithfaecalbacteria
    fromaninfectedperson.Althoughaglobalissue,itis
    mostextremeinsub-SaharanAfricaandSouthAsia,
    killingover2millionpeopleannually(WHO,2008).
    Almost1.5millionofthesedeathsarechildrenunder
    theageofve,accountingfor15%ofallchilddeaths
    undertheageofve,secondonlytopneumonia,and
    morethanHIV/AIDS,measles,andmalariacombined
    (Blacketal.,2010)(Table16.1).Lesscommonwater-
    bornediseasesincludetyphoid,cholera,andhepatitis
    A.Whilethenumberofdeathsfromthesediseasesis
    relativelylow,thenumberofcases(17millionannually
    fortyphoid)putahighburdenoncommunitiesinde-
    velopingcountries.
    Driverstowaterbornediseasesarestronglylinkedto
    populationgrowth,combinedwithmigrationtourban
    centreswithahighpopulationdensity.Lackof-
    nanceslimitsthepossibilitiestoestablishcostlysewer
    andtreatmentsystemstohandleurbanwastewaters.
    Naturaldisasters(oods,stormsurges,hurricanes,
    earthquakes)oftendestroysafewatersupplies,leav-
    ingthepopulationwithnoalternativetousingcon-
    taminatedwaterforlongperiods.
    Responseefortsmayrstconsiderpubliceduca-
    tionhandwashingisthemostvitalcomponentof
    personalhygiene(Pokhrel,2007).Thisefortmust
    becombinedwithappropriate,costefectiveop-
    tionsforcollecting,treatinganddisposingofhu-
    manwastes.Thereisanurgentneedtocreatemore
    innovativesolutionswithinthenancialcapabilities
    ofmunicipalitiesinthedevelopingworld.Innovative
    nancingofappropriatewastewaterinfrastructure
    shouldincorporatethefulllifecycleoftheplants,
    andthevaluationofnon-marketdividendsfrom
    wastewatertreatment(suchaspublicamenityand
    ecosystemservices)needtobebetterunderstood
    toenablemorecomprehensivecostbenetanaly-
    ses.Institutionalefortsareneededtostrengthen
    emergencyresponseswhensafewatersuppliesare
    destroyedbecauseofnaturaldisastersandcon-
    icts.Thiswillbecomeparticularlyimportantwiththe
    emergingclimatechangethreats.
    ofpathogenicorganismsandtoxicsubstances,from
    municipalandindustrialwastedischargesaswellas
    storm-generatednon-point-sourcerunof.Inaglobal
    context,watercontaminationwithpathogenicsub-
    stancesisacknowledgedasthemostseriousriskfac-
    torinrelationtohumanhealth.
    Lessattentionhasbeenpaidtorisksofrunoffrom
    agriculturallands,wherehealthimpactsoffertilizers
    andpesticidesmaybetransferredtohumansthrough
    groundwaterandsurfacewater.Thehealthimpact
    fromlivestockwaste,particularlyfromintensivefarm-
    ing,isofcontinuedconcern(Corcoranetal.,2010).
    Risksofhumanhealthimpactsalsoariseinthefood
    chainsofshandseafood,asnotedinSection4.1.
    16.4.1Waterbornediseases
    Mostwaterbornediseasesarerelatedtocontamination
    fromuntreatedwastewater,orsewage(WSSCC,2008).
    Sewagereferstoliquidwastefromprivatehouse-
    holdsaswellaswastewaterfromnon-industrialand
    industrialactivities.Inmanypartsofdevelopingcoun-
    tries,sewageisdumpeddirectlyintolocalwaterways.
    Untreatedsewagecontainswaterbornepathogensthat
    cancauseserioushumanillnessandevendeath.
    Note: UR, uncertainty range.
    Source: Black et al. (2010).
    TABLE 16.1
    Estimateddeathsofchildrenundertheageofve
    (8.795millionintotal)
    68% (5.970 million) of deaths were from infectious
    diseases
    Pneumonia 18% 1.575
    million
    1.0461.874 million [UR]
    Diarrhoea 15% 1.336
    million
    0.8222.004 million [UR]
    Malaria 8% 0.732
    million
    0.6010.851 million [UR]
    41% (3.575 million) of deaths occurred in neonates
    PTB
    complications
    12% 1.033
    million
    0.7171.216 million
    [UR]
    Birth asphyxia 9% 0.814
    million
    0.5630.997 million
    [UR]
    Sepsis 6% 0.521
    million
    0.3560.735 million
    [UR]
    Pneumonia 4% 0.386
    million
    0.2640.545 million
    [UR]
    CHAPTER16 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 410
    16.4.2Waterqualitydegradationfromtoxic
    substances
    Comparedtotheglobalimportanceofhumanwaste
    contamination,thetoxicimpactsfromhazardous
    chemicalsareoftenofmorelocalorregionalconcern.
    Althoughthenumberoffatalitiesissmallerthanfor
    waterbornepathogens,thenumberofpeopleatriskis
    substantial(Table16.2).Further,hazardouschemicals
    indevelopingcountriesareoftennotnoticedbefore
    theirtoxicefectshavebecomeevidentinthepopu-
    lation.Toxicsubstancesinwatermayoriginatefrom
    naturalsources(e.g.arsenic),aswellasfromhuman
    sources(e.g.pesticides).
    Inorganicpollutantsfromindustrialprocessesinclude
    thetoxicmetalssuchaslead,mercury,andchromium.
    Theyarenaturallyoccurring,butbecomeahealthissue
    duetoanthropogeniccontamination.Whenpresent
    inwater,theycancausetoxicefects,includingdam-
    agetothebrain,kidney,andlungs.Theymaydamage
    neuralnetworksandcausebloodandbraindisor-
    ders.Poisoningbytracemetalstypicallyarisefrom
    consumptionofcontaminateddrinkingwaterorfood,
    suchasirrigatedcrops,shandseafood.
    Arsenicindrinkingwatercancausehumanorgan
    failureandcancer.Arsenicpoisoningofgroundwater
    FIGURE 16.3
    Probabilityofoccurrenceofexcessivelyhigharsenicconcentrations(>0.05mgperL)ingroundwater
    Source: Brunt et al. (2004).
    high
    low
    uncertain
    Notes: The population estimates are preliminary and based on an
    ongoing global assessment of polluted sites. The estimated global
    impact is extrapolated from current site research and assessment
    coverage.
    Source: Blacksmith Institute (2010, p. 7).
    TABLE 16.2
    Estimatedimpactsoftoxicpollution
    Top six toxic
    threats:
    Estimated
    population
    at risk at
    identied sites
    (million people)
    Estimated
    global impact
    (million people)
    1. Lead 10 1822
    2. Mercury 8.6 1519
    3. Chromium 7.3 1317
    4. Arsenic 3.7 59
    5. Pesticides 3.4 58
    6. Radionuclides 3.3 58
    fromnaturalsourceshasbeenfoundinmanycountries
    anditisestimatedthatapproximately130millionpeo-
    plehavebeenorarestillconsuminggroundwaterwith
    arsenicconcentrationsabovethestandardsetbythe
    WorldHealthOrganization(WHO)(RoyalGeographic
    SocietywithIBG,2008)(Figure16.3).
    WWDR4 411 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUALITY
    Nitrateisanutrientcommonlyfoundinbothsurface
    waterandgroundwaterasaresultoffertilizerappli-
    cationlosses.Althoughharmlesstohumanhealthin
    smallconcentrations,nitratemaycauseharmtoin-
    fantsatlevelsabove50mgperL(WHO,2008).
    Chloridefromseawaterintrusionsmayalsorenderwa-
    terunsuitablefordrinking,thoughthereiscurrentlyno
    guidelinevalueforchloride(WHO,2008).
    Persistentorganicpollutants(POPs)areorganiccom-
    poundsresistanttoenvironmentaldegradation.POPs
    canremainintheenvironmentforalongtimeandca-
    pableofbioaccumulationinhumanandanimaltissues.
    POPsexposurecancausedeathandillness,includ-
    ingdisruptionoftheendocrine,reproductiveandim-
    munesystems;neurobehaviouraldisorders,andcancer.
    POPsincludesubstancessuchaspolychlorinatedbi-
    phenyls(PCBs),manypesticides(e.g.DDT),aswellas
    certainpharmaceuticalsandbodycareproducts.PCB
    usehasbeenbannedintheEuropeanUnionandthe
    UnitedStates(USA).
    Someofthesyntheticchemicalsthatarefoundin
    wastewatercontainingpesticidesandpharmaceuticals
    areendocrinedisruptors(ColbornandvomSaal,1993)
    (Box16.5).Thepotentiallynegativeefectsofthese
    chemicalsonhumansandhumandevelopmenthave
    beendocumented,andstudiesonanimalssuggest
    thereiscauseforconcern,evenatlowdoses.Research
    showstheefectsmayextendbeyondtheexposed
    individual,particularlyafectingfoetusesofexposed
    pregnantwomenandbreastfedchildren(Diamanti-
    Kandarakis,2009).
    Toxicwatercontaminationrisksareprimarilyafunction
    ofindustrialandagriculturalproduction.Driveruncer-
    taintiesarerelatedtotheparticularindustrialpro-
    cessesandpractices,particularlytheirwasteemissions,
    includingwastewatertosolidwastedeposits.Anim-
    portantissueistheriskofaccidentalreleasesoftoxic
    chemicals,particularlyfromchemicalindustries.
    Intensiveagriculturepractices(includingtheGreen
    Revolution)areheavilydependentonpestcontrol,with
    considerableriskofcontaminatingbothsurfacewater
    andgroundwater.Miningenterprisesrepresentsubstan-
    tialrisksfortoxiccontamination,bothfromminingwaste
    materials,aswellastheminingprocessesthemselves.
    Responseefortsmayprimarilybedirectedtowardindus-
    triesusingorproducingtoxicsubstances.Developmentof
    cleantechnologyandsubstitutionprocesses,combined
    withcostefcienttreatmentoptions,isaprioritycompo-
    nent.However,regulationsandtheirefcientenforcement
    arealsoneeded.Risksofaccidentalspillsmustbead-
    dressedwithintheenterprisesthemselves,butsupported
    bypublicalarmandresponseframeworks.Furthermore,
    handlingofsolidwastesfromproductionprocessesmust
    beconsideredfromtheperspectiveofminimizingcon-
    taminationofwastedumps.Pesticidecontaminationcan
    beminimizedthroughuseoflow-impactsubstancesand
    integratedpestmanagementtechniques(UNEP,2010).
    Awarenesscampaignsandextensionservicesonpesti-
    cideuseareofparticularimportance.In1987,theNational
    UnionofFarmersandRanchers(UNAG)inNicaragua
    foundedtheProgramaCampesinoaCampesino(PCaC),
    aninnovativeeforttopromotebestagriculturalpractices
    throughpeer-to-peereducation.Producersfrom
    817communitiesarebenettingfromthePCaC
    methodologywheretheproducerssharetheirknowledge
    andexperienceswithoneanother(UNEP,2010).
    16.5Ecosystemhealthrisksrelatedtowater
    quality
    TheMillenniumEcosystemAssessment(MA,2005a,b)
    recognizedtheimportanceofecosystemgoodsand
    servicesasanimportantandmultifacetedassetin
    povertyalleviation,aswellasforsustainableeconom-
    icdevelopment.Thereportchangedthefocusfrom
    simplyprotectingendangeredspeciestoincludethe
    Theefectsofendocrinedisruptingchemicals(organic
    chemicalsthatcanmimicnaturalhormones)onwildlife
    includethethinningofeggshellsinbirds,inadequatepa-
    rentalbehaviour,andcancerousgrowths(CarrandNeary,
    2008).Thefeminizationofshandamphibiansdown-
    streamofwastewatertreatmentplants,forexample,has
    longbeenlinkedtoestrogenicpharmaceuticals(Sumpter,
    1995),andmorerecentlytopesticidessuchasatrazine
    (Hayesetal.,2006).AWHOGlobalAssessmentofthe
    State-of-the-ScienceofEndocrineDisruptorsin2002
    identiedtheneedforbetterunderstandingofEDCsand
    theirimpactsonhumansandecosystems.However,there
    isstillnoglobalstudyontheimpactofEDCs,partlydue
    tocomplexitiesinvolvedinidentifyingdoseresponsere-
    lationships.WhilemanyEDCshavebeenbanned(particu-
    larlyinEuropeandNorthAmerica),somecontinuetobe
    used,suchasDDT.
    Source: UNEP (2010).
    BOX 16.5
    Riskofhormonalmodicationsinecosystem
    populations
    CHAPTER16 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 412
    livelihoodsandincomeopportunitiesofthepoorde-
    pendentonecosystemsfortheirlivelihoods.
    16.5.1Oxygendepletionandshkills
    Ahealthyaquaticenvironmentmaintainsahighlevel
    ofdissolvedoxygen(DO),between80and120%satu-
    ration.Oxygendemandsbymicroorganismsmay
    depletetheDOtocriticallevels,causingshkillsand
    anaerobicconditionsinthewatercolumnandbottom
    sediments(DepartmentofWaterAfairsandForestry,
    1996).Suchconditionscandestroysheriesandseri-
    ouslyharmtheecologicalstructureandtherecreation-
    alvalueoftheecosystem(Box16.6).
    Untreatedsewagecontainshighloadsoforganicma-
    terial,supportingthegrowthofmicroorganismsand
    increasingtheiroxygendemandastheydecompose
    theorganicmatter.Oxygendecitisrelatedtopollu-
    tionfromhumanandindustrialwastewaters.Therefore,
    urbancentresandindustrieslikepulpproducers,abat-
    toirsandpigfarmsbecomehotspotsforDOdecits
    inaquaticecosystems.Figure16.4showsthemodelled
    organicloadingtakingintoaccountdiferenttypes
    ofsewagetreatmentonly.Itshowshotspotsinevery
    FIGURE 16.4
    Modelledorganicloadingbasedondiferenttypesofsewagetreatment
    Source: Vrsmarty et al. (2010, supp. g. 2, pp. 310.). Reproduced by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd.
    Source: UNEP (2008).
    BOX 16.6
    BangPakongpollutiondestroysvaluable
    ecosystemassetsandincomeopportunities
    Driverorganicloading
    0.2
    0 0.4 0.8
    0.6 1
    TheBangPakongestuaryhasperfectconditionsforthe
    rivershrimpthatisoneofThailandsmajordelicacies.
    Theestuaryishometoendangeredspecies
    (e.g.theIrawaddydolphin)and,likemanyestuaries,
    playsanimportantroleforbothbrackishandmarine
    sheries.However,waterqualityissuescausedbyshrimp
    farmingwithintheestuaryarecompoundedby
    efuentsfromcatchmentactivities,includingwastewa-
    terdischargesfromallsectors.Highpollutionloadshave
    beenreportedfromdiferentsources:domestic(nearly
    6,000kgBODperday);industrial(nearly9,000kg
    BODperday);andagriculture(30,000kgBODperday).
    Thedevelopmentofinlandlowsalinityshrimpfarmsin
    thefreshwaterareasofthebasinisanadditional
    pollutionthreatproducingupto32millionkgBODperyear.
    Althoughseveralplanshavebeenpreparedtoaddress
    thesituationthewaterqualityconditionsremainpoor.
    Itisrecommendedtoadoptanecosystemsservicesap-
    proachtobetterrealizethebenetsoftheecosystem.
    WWDR4 413 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUALITY
    region,withparticularlylargeareasafectedincentral
    Asia,India,andnorthernChina.
    Eutrophicationcanalsocausesevereoxygendecits
    throughthemicrobialdecompositionofdeadalgal
    cells.
    Highlevelsofnutrientslikenitrateandphosphatecan
    alsodestroythenormalbiologicalstructures.Often
    thedominatingsourcesofnutrientsarefertilizers,
    thoughdomesticwastewateralsocontainsnutrients.
    Agriculturallossesarenon-pointsources,whichare
    difculttoidentify,thereforeassociatedwithconsider-
    ableuncertaintiesandrisks(Box16.7).
    Erosioncausedbyinappropriatelanduses(e.g.defor-
    estation)canalsobecomecriticalsourcesofnutrients
    causingeutrophication.Aspreviouslynoted,anemerg-
    ingissueismorefrequentincidencesofforestres,
    whichmaybeassociatedwithsubsequenterosion.
    Unfortunately,thereisinsufcientdatatogiveacom-
    pleteoverviewofeutrophicationtrendsattheglobal
    FIGURE 16.5
    Worldhypoxicandeutrophiccoastalareas
    Source: Diaz et al. (2010).
    TaihuLake(orLakeTai)isthethirdlargestfreshwater
    lakeinChina,providingwaterto30millionpeople.Ithas
    athrivingshingindustryandwaspreviouslyapopular
    touristdestination.InMay2007aseverealgalbloomand
    majorpollutionwithcyanobacteriaoccurred,largelydriv-
    enbythehighlevelsofindustryanddevelopmentinthe
    catchment,madeworsebecausethelakewasatitslow-
    estlevelin50years.TheChinesegovernmentcalledthe
    lakeanaturaldisaster.andbannedwaterprovidersfrom
    implementingpricehikesafterbottledwaterrosetosix
    timesthenormalprice.ItwasreportedthattheChinese
    governmenthadshutdownorgivennoticetoover
    1,300factoriesaroundthelakebyOctober2007.
    TheStateCouncilsetatargettocleanTaihuLakeby2012,
    butin2010afreshpollutionoutbreakwasreported.This
    highlightsthecomplexitiesinvolvedincontrollingpollu-
    tion,oftenwithcompetingpolitical,developmental,com-
    mercial,andenvironmentalinterests.
    Sources: The Economist (2010) and Wikipedia (2011).
    BOX 16.7
    LakeeutrophicationinChina
    Eutrophic
    Hypoxic
    Systems in recovery
    CHAPTER16 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 414
    level,butitisthoughtthatincidentsofeutrophication
    arebecomingmorecommonandmoresevere.Thisis
    supportedbyFigure16.5below,whichshowscoastal
    areassuferingfromeutrophicandhypoxic(insuf-
    cientoxygen)conditions.
    Responseefortstourbanandindustrialpointsources
    aresimilartothepreviouslydescribedeforts.Control
    ofnon-pointsourcesofnutrientsmustbeconducted
    inclosecooperationwithlandowners,throughexten-
    sionservicesanddevelopmentofappropriateoptions
    forreducingcontaminationrisks.TheChesapeakeBay
    Program,intheUSA,whichhasrunforovertwodec-
    ades,hasshownthatthecontrolofnon-pointsources
    isasignicantchallenge.Duringthisprogramresearch
    demonstratedthatatmosphericinputwasamajor
    contributortotheBaysdecliningwaterquality.Thus,
    inadditiontothewatershed,theairshedneedsto
    beconsideredinanintegratedmanagementefort
    (GWP,2011).
    16.5.2Ecosystemdegradationfromhazardous
    chemicals
    Toxicsubstancesthatafecthumanscanalsoafect
    ecosystems.Fishkillsandchangesinbiologicalstruc-
    turesarecommonimpactsoftoxiccontamination,
    threateningthelivelihoodoflocalcommunities
    (Box16.8).
    Metalslikemercury,leadandcadmiumfromindustrial
    andminingwastesarecharacteristicecosystemcon-
    taminants.Ammoniaisatoxicwasteproductofthe
    metabolisminanimalswhichcanleadtofatalpoison-
    ingofsh,oftenwithdramaticconsequencesonlocal
    sheries.
    Inadditiontothedirectpoisoningofsh,seafood
    andvegetation,manysubstances(e.g.mercury,lead,
    POPs)accumulateinorganictissues,resultinginpoi-
    soningifeatenbyhumans.Thisbioaccumulationcan
    alsoleadtotoxicchemicalsbeingtransportedlong
    distances,andmustbeaddressedbyqualityassur-
    anceproceduresinthefoodsector.Irrigationwith
    cadmiumcontaminatedwatercanaccumulatein
    crops.
    Pesticidesarebytheirverydenitiontoxictoeco-
    systems.Mostpesticidesaresolubleinwater,and
    lossestowaterresultingfromimproperusereadily
    translateintothreatstobothecosystemsandhumans.
    ChemicalssuchasDDTaretoxictoawiderangeof
    animals,inadditiontoinsects,andarehighlytoxicto
    aquaticlife.Pesticideshaveparticularlyseriousim-
    pactsonshproductioninriceelds,animportant
    by-productoftraditionalpaddysystems.
    Riskmitigationoftoxiccontaminationofecosystems
    issimilartoefortsfocusingonhumanhealth.The
    driversarethesame,asaremanyoftheresponse
    options.
    16.5.3Ecosystemmodications
    Somewaterqualityparametersmayappearharmless
    undernormalconditions,butpossesssignicantrisks
    whenconcentrationlevelsareslightlyaltered.
    Thisisparticularlytrueforthecoastalinterfacebe-
    tweenfreshandmarinewaters.Minorchangesinsalin-
    ity,temperatureorturbiditymaycatalysesignicant
    risksofchangesinthebiologicalstructuresofestu-
    ariesandlagoonsprovidingimportantlivelihoodsfor
    coastalcommunities(Box16.9).
    Salinityisalsoanimportantecologicalfactor.
    Freshwaterspeciesmaybeevictedwithincreasing
    salinityandreplacedbybrackishorevenmarinespe-
    cies.Also,manyplantsaresensitivetosalinityan
    importantissueforirrigationwaterintakes.Themost
    criticalcasesofsalinitychangesoccurinthecoastal
    zones,wheremorphologicalchangesinlagoonsand
    TheBaselConventionwasestablishedtoaddressthehu-
    manhealthandenvironmentalrisksassociatedwiththe
    exportoftoxicwastes.Withthetighteningofenviron-
    mentallawsindevelopednationsinthe1970s,hazard-
    ouswastedisposalcostsincreaseddramatically.Atthe
    sametime,globalizationofshippingmadetransboundary
    movementofwastesmorepossible,andthetradeinhaz-
    ardouswaste,particularlytodevelopingcountries,rapidly
    increased.Theconventionaimstokeepwasteascloseto
    thesourcesaspossible,andtheycanonlybeexported
    withpriorwrittennoticationbythestateofexporttothe
    statesofimportandtransit.Thevastmajorityofcountries
    haveratiedthetreatyanditisgenerallyseenasasuc-
    cess,andtheConventionSecretariatnowworksclosely
    withtheRotterdamandStockholmConventions.The
    Conventionislegallybinding,includingreportingnational
    reportingrequirementsonthemovementofhazardous
    wastes.
    Source: OECD (1989).
    BOX 16.8
    TheBaselConvention
    WWDR4 415 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUALITY
    estuariescancausedrasticsalinityimpacts.Storm
    surgesalsomayraisesalinityinfreshwaterreservoirs
    andsoilwateroflowlyingagriculturallands.
    Manyspeciesmaybetemperaturesensitive,par-
    ticularlyduringspawning.Therefore,changesin
    thewatertemperaturemaydepletecertainspecies.
    Increasingwatertemperaturemayalsocompound
    theimpactsofeutrophication.Primarycausesof
    temperaturechangesarecoolingwaterreleases
    fromelectricitygenerationandotherindustrialac-
    tivities.However,impactscanbemitigatedthrough
    legislationandenforcement.Aciditychanges
    mayalsocreatechangesintheecosystemstruc-
    tures.Acidrainandacidminingwastewatershave
    beenshowntohaveadverseimpactsonaquatic
    ecosystems.
    Climatechangealsothreatensecosystems.Sealevel
    rise(orextendeddroughts)mayincreasesaltwater
    intrusioninestuariesandlagoons,andchangethebio-
    logicalstructurefromfreshwatertosaltwaterspecies.
    Asimilarefectinrelationtoinvasivespeciesmaybe
    causedbytemperaturechanges.
    Responsestoecosystemchangesdependonanin-
    depthunderstandingofthebiologicalprocessesunder
    transformation.Firstandforemost,anefcientandtar-
    getedmonitoringsystemisneededtodetectchanges,
    andiftrendsareidentied,furtherresearchmustbe
    directedtowardsunderstandingthecauses.
    16.6Economiccostsofpoorwaterquality
    Poorwaterqualitymayleadtosignicanteconomic
    costs/lossessuchasreducedecosystemservices;health
    care;increasedagricultureandindustrialproductioncosts;
    lackoftourism;increasedwatertreatmentcosts;and
    reducedpropertyvalues(UNEP,2010).Theestimated
    costsofpoorqualitywaterincountriesintheMiddleEast
    andNorthAfricarangebetween0.5and2.5%ofGDP
    (Figure16.6)(WorldBank,2007).Withfreshwaterre-
    sourcesprojectedtobecomeincreasinglyscarceinthese
    andotherregions,thecostsassociatedwithaddressing
    theresultingproblemscanbeexpectedtoincrease.
    Increasedhealthhaseconomicbenetstogovern-
    mentsandindividualsthroughreducedexpenditureon
    diseasetreatmentandlosttimeinseekingtreatment,
    andbenetstotheagriculturalandindustrialsectors
    throughimprovedproductivityandfewerexpensesas-
    sociatedwithemployeehealthcare(SIWI,2005).
    Manystudiesonthehealth-relatedcostsofpoorwa-
    terqualityareinreferencetothewaterandsanita-
    tionMDGs,wherebytheinternationalcommunityis
    ChilikaLakeisthelargestwinteringgroundformigratory
    waterfowlontheIndiansubcontinent.Thehighlypro-
    ductivelagoonecosystem,withitsrichsheryresources,
    sustainsthelivelihoodsofmorethan200,000people.
    Threatstothelakeecosystemincreasedthroughthe
    1980sfrompollution,intensiveaquaculture,overshing,
    andincreasedsiltationfrompoorlandmanagement.By
    1993thesituationbecamesoseverethatthelakewasput
    ontheMontreuxRecord(aRamsarlistsignifyingthreats
    fromhumanactivities).In1992theStateGovernmentset
    uptheChilikaDevelopmentAuthority(CDA),whichfacili-
    tatedthedevelopmentofanadaptiveintegratedman-
    agementplanwithstakeholderparticipation.Signicant
    nationalfundingsupportedactivitiessuchascatchment
    conservation,educationcampaigns,improvedsocio-eco-
    nomicconditions(e.g.improvementofservices),andhab-
    itatrestoration.Tenyearslater,ChilikaLakewasawarded
    theRamsarWetlandAwardinrecognitionofsignicant
    improvements.Lessonslearnedincluded:(a)dangerof
    unilateraldecisionsonestablishedrightsofstakeholders;
    (b)vitalroleofscience;(c)importanceofcoordination
    anddiversefunding;(d)needforlongtermpolicies;(e)
    stakeholderparticipationcanleadtoselfinitiatedgood
    practices;and(f)linksbetweenpovertyalleviationand
    ecosystemrestoration.
    Source: Ghosh and Pattanaik (2006).
    BOX 16.9
    ChilikaLake:slowdeteriorationandrapidrecovery
    Source: World Bank (2007, g. 4.4, p. 109), from various data
    sources.
    FIGURE 16.6
    Annualcostoftheenvironmentaldegradationof
    water
    0.0
    0.5
    1.0
    1.5
    2.0
    2.5
    3.0
    ShareofGDP
    A
    l
    g
    e
    r
    i
    a
    E
    g
    y
    p
    t
    I
    r
    a
    n
    J
    o
    r
    d
    a
    n
    L
    e
    b
    a
    n
    o
    n
    M
    o
    r
    o
    c
    c
    o
    S
    y
    r
    i
    a
    T
    u
    n
    i
    s
    i
    a
    CHAPTER16 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 416
    TABLE 16.3
    Summaryofmajorrisksandtheirmaindrivers
    Risk Main driver Response option
    Human health
    impact
    Severity Natural process Social Economic Intervention
    Waterborne
    disease
    Millions of fatal
    cases
    Increasing waste
    discharge due to
    urbanization
    Increasing ood
    disasters damage
    safe water supply
    Urban migration
    Poverty
    Shortage of
    investment in
    wastewater
    treatment
    Urban wastewater
    treatment
    Low-cost
    community waste
    treatment
    Toxic
    contamination
    Millions of afected
    persons
    Thousands of cases
    of serious impacts
    in hot spots
    Lack of reliable
    documentation
    Saltwater
    intrusion due to
    sea level rise and
    drought
    Waste disposal
    attitudes
    Poverty
    Industrial waste
    and spills
    Mining
    Industrial waste
    treatment
    Clean technology
    Warning systems
    Disaster response
    systems
    Ecosystem health
    impact
    Severity Natural process Social Economic Intervention
    Oxygen
    decit and
    eutrophication
    Thousands of km
    2
    Coastal sheries
    decline
    Recreational value
    decline
    Increasing heat
    waves and ood
    erosion events
    Intensive
    agriculture
    Biofuels
    Urban wastewater
    Industrial
    wastewater
    Sustainable
    agricultural
    practices
    Nutrient removal in
    wastewater
    Poisoning Hundreds of km
    2
    Fisheries
    destruction
    Increasing ood
    disasters
    Waste disposal
    attitudes
    Poverty
    Agriculture
    Urban wastewater
    Industrial
    wastewater
    Mining
    Industrial waste
    treatment
    Clean technology
    Integrated pest
    management
    Ecosystem
    modication
    Invasive species
    increase
    Invasive pest
    increase
    Turbidity increase
    Seawater
    intrusion
    Heating
    Erosion after
    forest res and
    oods
    Poverty Agriculture
    Forestry
    Urban wastewater
    Industrial
    wastewater
    Hydropower
    Sustainable
    agricultural
    practices
    Sustainable
    forestry
    Nutrient removal in
    wastewater
    committedtohalvingtheproportionofpeoplewithout
    accesstosafewaterandsanitationby2015.Ifthisgoal
    ismet,itisestimatedthat322millionworkingdays
    peryearwillbegained,correspondingtonearly
    US$750million(SIWI,2005).MeetingtheMDGson
    waterandsanitationwouldalsoresultinanannualsav-
    ingstohealthsectorexpensesofUS$7billion.Overall,
    thetotaleconomicbenetsofmeetingtheMDGtarget
    havebeenestimatedatUS$84billion(SIWI,2005).
    Thebenetsofwastewatertreatmentrangebetween
    US$334foreveryUS$1investedinsanitationand
    drinkingwater(WHO,2004).
    Intermsofagriculture,salinizedwatercanreduce
    cropqualityorevendestroyit.Theuseofpoorquality
    watercanalsohaveseriousconsequencesonhuman
    health.In2011,severalpeoplediedfromanEuropean
    E. colioutbreak,whichwassuspectedtostemfrom
    vegetablesthathadcomeintocontactwithinfected
    water.Astrongconsumerreactionresultingfroma
    lackofclarityonthesourceledtothousandsoftonnes
    ofvegetablesbeingdumpedandanestimatedcostto
    theEuropeanCommissionofUS$300millionto
    compensatefarmersfortheirlosses(Flynn,2011).
    WWDR4 417 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUALITY
    Whileindustrialproductionisforemostconsidered
    toafectwaterqualityitcanalsobenegativelyaf-
    fectedbypoorwaterquality.Anindicationofconcern
    overqualityandquantityistheincreasingengage-
    mentoffoodandbeveragecompanies,suchasNestl
    andCocaCola,inpublicdiscussionsonwater-related
    challenges.Whilenoestimatesexistonworldwide
    costsofpoorwaterqualitytoindustry,in1992,Chinas
    industrialsectorwasestimatedtohavelostapproxi-
    matelyUS$1.7billionasaresultofwaterpollution
    (SIWI,2005).
    Oneofthemostimportantservicesthatfreshwa-
    terecosystemsprovideiswastetreatment,although
    moreresearchisrequiredtobetterquantifythisser-
    vice.Costanzaetal.,(1997)estimatedthattheglobal
    FIGURE 16.7
    Wastewater:Aglobalproblemwithdiferingregionalissues
    Note: The ecosystem deterioration parameter is dened as the land ratio without vegetation coverage (forest area and wetlands) used to
    present the contribution of an ecosystems deterioration to the vulnerability of its water resources.
    Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/wastewater-a-global-problem-with-difering-regional-issues, a map by UNEP/
    GRID-Arendal with sources WHO database, data for 2002; FAO database; Babel and Walid, 2008; European Environment Agency, 2009;
    Diaz et al., 2008).
    910
    370
    45
    lessthan15
    15to30
    30to100
    100to200
    200to400
    Morethan400
    Waterdisease
    relateddeaths
    per100000inhabitants
    None
    0to200
    200to400
    400to700
    700to1200
    Eutrophication
    equivalents(N)per
    hectareandyear
    Variation within Europe:
    Exceeding critical nutrient loading
    Deadzones
    Totalfertilizersusage
    Milliontonnesover
    1980-2002period
    Ganges
    Brahmaputra
    Meghna
    Indus
    Helmand
    Wastewaterdischarge (Billion cubic metres per year)
    Ecosystem deterioration
    parameter
    *
    Severe
    High
    94
    55
    3
    Polluted river basins
    CHAPTER16 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 418
    servicesprovidedbylakesandriversalonewereinthe
    regionofUS$133billionperyear.Thisguredoesnot
    takeintoconsiderationwetlandbiomes,someofwhich
    arecoastal,whichareexpectedtoprovideservicesof
    fargreatervalue.
    Peoplehavehistoricallyreliedonnaturalprocesses
    infreshwaterecosystemstocleanagricultural,mu-
    nicipal,andindustrialwastes.Often,however,the
    magnitudeandtoxicityofthesewasteshasover-
    whelmedthecapacityandresilienceofsuchecosys-
    tems,degradingwaterqualitylocallyandregionally.
    Suchdegradationsmanifestthemselvesinimpaired
    amenityvalues,decliningbiodiversity,anddimin-
    ishedabilitytoprovidewastewatertreatmentand
    otherecosystemservices(Arthingtonetal.,2009).
    16.7Risks,monitoringandintervention
    Asummaryofglobalkeyriskissues,theirmaindrivers
    andsomeresponseoptionsispresentedinTable16.3.
    WhileTable16.3isgeneralinscope,itprovidesa
    usefuloverviewofthekeyfactorsofwaterquality
    TABLE 16.4
    Countriesleastlikelytoexpresssatisfactionwith
    thequalityofwaterintheircommunities
    Risk
    Country Satised (%)
    Chad 21
    Ukraine 26
    Nigeria 29
    Ethiopia 29
    Liberia 30
    Russia 30
    Tanzania 35
    Lebanon 35
    Sierra Leone 36
    Angola* 38
    *Onlyurbanresidentsinterviewed.
    Source: Ray (2008).
    Source: Adapted from UNEP (2010, table 8, p. 73).
    TABLE 16.5
    Summaryofpossiblewaterqualityinterventionsbyscale
    Scale
    Education and
    capacity building
    Policy/law/
    governance
    Financial/
    economic
    Technology/
    infrastructure
    Data/monitoring
    International/
    national
    Initiate training
    and awareness
    building
    Institute
    integrated
    approaches
    Institute pollution
    prevention
    Institute polluter/
    beneciary pays
    system
    Promote best
    practice and
    support capacity
    building
    Develop
    monitoring
    framework
    Watershed Strategic level for
    raising awareness
    on impacts of
    water quality
    Establish training
    for practitioners
    and develop best
    practice
    Create
    watershed-based
    planning units
    Develop water
    quality goals
    Institute pricing
    systems
    Institute cost
    recovery
    Create incentives
    for efciency
    Invest in
    infrastructure
    and appropriate
    technologies
    Build regional
    capacity to collect
    and process water
    quality data
    Community/
    household
    Connect individual/
    community
    behaviour to water
    quality impacts
    Build capacity
    to make
    improvements
    in sanitation/
    wastewater
    treatment
    Amend codes to
    allow innovative
    storm water
    treatment
    options
    Promote access
    to information
    Encourage
    investments
    Consider
    decentralized
    treatment
    technologies
    Carry out and
    analyse household/
    community surveys
    WWDR4 419 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUALITY
    risk.However,thereisacriticallackofglobalwater
    qualitydatauponwhichtomakearobustassessment
    oftrendsandgeographichotspots,whichmeans
    thattheworldswaterqualitysituationispoorly
    understood.Whiletherehavebeenadvanceslocally
    andinsomeregions,theoverallglobalsynthesisof
    waterqualitydatahasdeterioratedinrecentdecades,
    makingitdifculttosupportinternationaldecision
    makingprocesses.Anexampleoftheregional
    diferencesisgiveninFigure16.7.AlthoughthisFigure
    hasbeentakenfromarecentUNpublication,muchof
    thedataisovertenyearsold.Moreup-to-datedatais
    notavailableattheglobalscale.
    Analternativetoquantitativedataisqualitativedata,
    anexamplebeingthe2008GallupPollonwater
    qualitysatisfaction.1000residentsfrom145countries
    wereaskedthesimplequestion,Inthecityorarea
    whereyoulive,areyousatisedordissatisedwith
    thequalityofwater?Whileitmightcomeasno
    surprisethattheregionalmedianrateofsatisfaction
    wasjust48%insub-SaharanAfrica(withahighof
    62%inSouthernAfrica),theglobaltoptenofleast
    satisedcountriescontainsbothRussiaandUkraine
    (Table16.4).
    Whiletherecanbemanyreasonsforacountrysrank-
    ing,suchasthefactthatLebanonwassurveyedjust
    afterthe2006conictwithIsrael,andthatgreater
    comparativeemphasisisperhapsgivenondrinking
    waterquality,thesurveyprovidesasimplebutinter-
    estingsnapshot.
    Waterqualityissuesalsovarywithscale,ranging
    fromtheinternationaltothecommunityorhouse-
    holdlevel.In2011,UNEPpublisheditsPolicy Brief
    on Water Quality,whichincludedasummarytable
    onthepossibleinterventionsbyscaleintheform
    ofeducationandcapacitybuilding;policy,lawand
    governance;nancialandeconomic;technologyand
    infrastructure;anddataandmonitoring.Table16.5
    providesasummaryofpossibleinterventionmeas-
    uresatdiferentscales,includingincreasedcapacity
    formonitoring.
    Amoresubstantialbodyofdataonwaterqualityis
    urgentlyrequired.Oneofthegreatestchallengesisto
    createamuchneededframeworkforaglobalwater
    qualityassessment.Somepossibilitiesfortheformand
    valuethiscouldhaveareincludedinTable16.5,while
    themotivationforsuchaframeworkwouldbeto:
    betterunderstandthestateofwaterqualityandits
    causes,
    understandrecenttrendsandidentifyhotspots,
    testandvalidatepolicyandmanagementoptions,
    provideafoundationforscenariosthatcanbeused
    tounderstandandplanforappropriatefutureac-
    tions,and
    providemuchneededmonitoringbenchmarkers
    (Alcamo,2011).
    Themultitudeofwaterqualityparametersandun-
    certainties,andtheirimpacts,makeswaterresources
    managementacomplexandmultidimensionalissue,
    particularlywithrespecttohumanactivities.Improved
    managementofvulnerabilityandrisksisneededto
    focusontheunknownandtheunexpectedinaneraof
    acceleratedchangesandnewuncertainties.

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    A Global Problem. London,RoyalGeographicSocietywith
    IBG.http://www.rgs.org/NR/rdonlyres/00D3AC7F-F6AF-
    48DE-B575-63ABB2F86AF8/0/ArsenicFINAL.pdf
    Shah,T.andIndu,R.2008.Fluorosis in Gujarat: A Disaster Ahead.
    Bangalore,IndiaWaterPortal.http://www.indiawaterportal.
    org/sites/indiawaterportal.org/les/Fluorosis_Gujarat_
    Tushaar%20Shah_CAREWATER_2008.pdf
    SIWI(StockholmInternationalWaterInstitute).2005.Making
    Water a Part of Economic Development: The Economic
    Benets of Improved Water Management and Services.
    Stockholm,SIWI.http://www.siwi.org/documents/
    Resources/Reports/CSD_Making_water_part_of_
    economic_development_2005.pdf
    WWDR4 421 STATEOFTHERESOURCE:QUALITY
    Stellar,D.2010.Can We Have Our Water and Drink It, Too?
    Exploring the Water Quality-Quantity Nexus.Stateofthe
    Planet.BlogsfromtheEarthInstitute.NewYork,Columbia
    University.http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2010/10/28/can-
    we-have-our-water-and-drink-it-too-exploring-the-water-
    quality-quantity-nexus/(Accessed1September2011.)
    Sumpter,J.P.1995.Feminizedresponsesinshto
    environmentalestrogens.Toxicology Letters,Vol.8283,
    pp.73742.
    UNECA(UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforAfrica).
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    Way Forward. AddisAbaba,UNECA.
    UNEP(UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme).2006.The
    State of the Marine Environment: Trends and Processes.The
    Hague,CoordinationOfceoftheGlobalProgrammeof
    ActionfortheProtectionoftheMarineEnvironmentfrom
    Land-basedActivities(GPA),UNEP.
    .2008.Water Security and Ecosystem Services: The
    Critical Connection: Ecosystem Management Case Studies.
    Nairobi,UNEP.http://www.unep.org/themes/freshwater/
    pdf/the_critical_connection.pdf
    .2010.Clearing the Waters: A Focus on Water Quality
    Solutions.Nairobi,UNEP.
    .2011.Policy Brief on Water Quality. Nairobi,UNEP.http://
    www.unwater.org/downloads/waterquality_policybrief.pdf
    USAID(UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment).
    2010.Making Cities Work: Urban Sanitation and Wastewater
    Treatment.WashingtonDC,USAID.http://oldmcw.zaloni.
    net/urbanThemes/environment/sanitation.html(Accessed
    1November2011.)
    Vrsmarty,C.J.,McIntyre,P.B.andGessner,M.O.2010.
    Globalthreatstohumanwatersecurityandriver
    biodiversity.Nature,Vol.467,pp.55561.
    WHO(WorldHealthOrganization).2004.Evaluation of the
    Costs and Benets of Water and Sanitation Improvements
    at the Global Level.Geneva,WHO.
    .2008.The Global Burden of Disease: 2004 Update.
    Geneva,WHO.
    WHO(WorldHealthOrganization)andUNICEF(United
    NationsChildrensFund).2010.Progress on Sanitation and
    Drinking-Water: 2010 Update. Geneva,WHO/UNICEFJoint
    MonitoringProgrammeforWaterSupplyandSanitation.
    Wikipedia.2011.LakeTai.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taihu_
    Lake#Pollution(Accessed9September2011.)
    WorldBank.2007.Making the Most of Scarcity: Accountability
    for Better Water Management Results in the Middle East
    and North Africa.WashingtonDC,TheWorldBank.
    http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTMENA/
    Resources/04-Chap04-Scarcity.pdf
    WSSCC(WaterSupplyandSanitationCollaborativeCouncil).
    2008.A Guide to Investigating One of the Biggest Scandals
    of the Last 50 Years.Geneva,WSSCC.
    WWAP(WorldWaterAssessmentProgramme).2009.World
    Water Development Report 3: Water in a Changing World.
    Paris/London,UNESCO/Earthscan.
    Zhao,Y.,Duan,L.,Xing,J.,Larssen,T.,Nielsen,C.P.and
    Hao,J.2009.SoilacidicationinChina:IscontrollingSO2
    emissionsenough?Environmental Science and Technology,
    Vol.43,No.21,pp.802126.
    Zijun,Li.2006.Acid Rain Afects One-Third of China: Main
    Pollutants Are Sulfur Dioxide and Particulate Matter.
    WashingtonDC,WorldwatchInstitute.
    UN-HABITAT

    CoordinatorOverallcoordinationwasprovidedbyAndreDzikus(ChiefWaterand
    Sanitation,SectionII,WaterSanitationandInfrastructureBranch,UN-HABITAT)
    ContributorsK.E.Seetharam(Director,InstituteofWaterPolicy,LeeKuanYew
    SchoolofPublicPolicy,NationalUniversityofSingapore),PriyankaAnand(Research
    Associate,InstituteofWaterPolicy,LeeKuanYewSchoolofPublicPolicy,National
    UniversityofSingapore),KalaVairavamoorthy(Professor,CivilandEnvironmental
    Engineering,ExecutiveDirector,PatelSchoolofGlobalSustainability,Universityof
    SouthFlorida),MichaelToh(PublicUtilitiesBoardSingapore),BindeshwarPathak
    (Founder,SulabhInternational),DebashishBhattacharjee(HumanSettlementsOfcer,
    WaterandSanitationSectionII,WSIB,UN-HABITAT),KennedyKamau(Research
    Ofcer,WaterandSanitationSectionII,WSIB,UN-HABITAT),BhushanTuladhar
    (RegionalTechnicalAdviser,WaterforAsianCitiesProgramme,UN-HABITAT)and
    KulwantSingh(Consultant,WaterandSanitationSectionII,WSIB,UN-HABITAT)
    CHAPTER 17
    Human settlements
    PhilippeBourseiller

    The challenge is not to curb urbanization but to seize the opportunities it can provide, giving
    due consideration to environmental issues.
    The very real efects of rapid urbanization and climate change on urban water and sanitation
    systems must be addressed, and resilience must be built in.
    Particular attention must be given to the needs of women and girls.
    Sustainable and ecological sanitation systems must be promoted to reduce water
    consumption as well as pollution; and the loop between water use, wastewater generation
    and wastewater treatment must be closed.
    The concept of an urban continuum must be given due consideration, and the consequences
    for system design, institutional setup and investment needs for urban centres must be well
    recognized.
    Planning must anticipate migration and growth so that the provision of water supply and
    sanitation services is not outpaced by urbanization.
    17.1Thechangingurbanbackground
    In2008,forthersttimeever,morepeoplelivedinur-
    banthaninruralareas.Andthistrendinurbanization
    issettocontinue.In2011,theworldpopulationcrossed
    the7billionthresholdjust12yearsafterthe6billion
    thresholdwasreachedin1999.Figure17.1shows,region
    byregion,theproportionoftotalpopulationsthatlive
    inurbanareas.Thegraphshowsageneralupwardtrend
    fromthe1960suptothemiddleofthiscentury.
    Existingcitieshavebeenexpandingrapidlywhile
    newonesarealsoemerging,particularlyinAsiaand
    inlowincomeandmiddleincomecountries.In1960,
    forexample,sevenoftheworldstenlargesturban
    conurbationswereinhighincome,developedcoun-
    tries.Butby2000,justtwoofthetenlargestwerein
    developedcountriesandsixwereinAsiaandLatin
    America.In1950,onlytwocities,NewYorkandTokyo,
    hadpopulationsofover10million.By2015,itisex-
    pectedthat23citiesworldwidewillhavepopulations
    ofover10millionand19ofthesewillbeindevel-
    opingcountries.In2000,22citieshadpopulations
    ofbetween5millionand10million;402citieshad
    between1millionand5million;and433citieswerein
    the0.5millionto1millioncategory(UN-DESA,2005).
    Projectionsshowthatthisurbanizationtrendissetto
    continueinlowerincomeandmiddleincomecoun-
    tries(Table17.1).
    In2005,themoredevelopedregionsoftheworldwere
    hostto29%ofthetotalurbanpopulation.Butbetween
    2000and2030,urbanpopulationsareexpectedtoex-
    pandby1.8%globally,andby2.3%(from1.9billionto
    3.9billion)indevelopingcountries(Cohen,2006).And
    indevelopedcountries,theurbanpopulationisexpect-
    edtoincreaseonlymarginally,from0.9billionin2000
    to1billionin2030(Brockerhof,2000).
    Whilerapidurbanization,particularlyindeveloping
    countries,isamajorchallenge,citiesalsobringoppor-
    tunities.Theygeneratewealth,enhancesocialdevel-
    opment,provideemploymentandserveasincubators
    ofinnovationandcreativityinanincreasinglyknowl-
    edge-basedglobaleconomy.Asforthechallengesas-
    sociatedwithurbanization,toagreatextenttheystem
    fromthefailuretomatchplanningwithmigrationand
    populationgrowth.Thisfailurehassevereefectson
    theprovisionofbasicservicessuchaswatersupply
    andsanitation,andresultsindegradedlivingenvi-
    ronments.Thepoor,particularlypoorwomen,arethe
    worstafected.

    17.1.1Thegrowingchallengeofslums
    Rapidlyexpandingurbanspheresexertincreasingpres-
    sureontheresources,infrastructureandenvironment
    onwhichcitiesdepend.Coupledwithfailuretoplanfor
    migrationanddemographicgrowth,thishasresulted
    FIGURE 17.1
    Proportionofworldpopulationlivinginurbanareas,19602050
    Source: Based on data from UN-DESA (2010).
    100
    90
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10.
    0
    World
    Asia
    NorthernAmerica
    Sub-SaharanAfrica
    Europe
    Oceania
    Africa
    LatinAmericaand
    TheCaribbean
    1
    9
    6
    0
    1
    9
    7
    0
    1
    9
    8
    0
    1
    9
    9
    0
    2
    0
    0
    0
    2
    0
    1
    0
    2
    0
    2
    0
    2
    0
    3
    0
    2
    0
    4
    0
    2
    0
    5
    0
    %
    CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 424 CHAPTER17
    WWDR4 425 HUMANSETTLEMENTS
    intheemergenceofslums,andthemanyproblemsas-
    sociatedwithslums.Thesetypicallyincludepoorhous-
    ing,inadequateaccesstocleanwater,poorsanitation,
    overcrowdingandinsecuretenure.Alltheseconditions
    haveaseriousefectonurbanwell-being(Sclaretal.,
    2005).Womenaretheworstafected.Becauseofbad
    planningandinappropriatelandusepolicies,slumsare
    typicallylocatedonmarginalanddangerouslandthat
    isunsuitableforhumansettlementlocationssuchas
    oncanalembankmentsandalongrailwaytracks.For
    example,shantytownsnearBuenosAiresinArgentina
    arebuiltonood-proneland,whichforcesresidentsto
    makeatoughchoicebetweensafetyandhealthonthe
    onehand,andtheneedforshelterontheother(Davis,
    2006).
    Theoverallpercentageofurbanpopulationsthatlive
    inslumsishighnearlyone-thirdoftheentireworld
    urbanpopulation,accordingtosomeestimates(see
    Figure17.2belowandSclaretal.,2005).Insomecit-
    ies,suchasMumbaiinIndia,thesituationisworsewith
    nearly50%livinginslumsandshantytowns(Stecko
    andBarber,2007).
    UN-HABITATs2008report,State of the World Cities
    2010/2011,projectedthatbetween2000and2010,
    227millionpeopleinthedevelopingworldwillhave
    movedoutofslumconditions.Thisreectsaremark-
    ableachievement,wellbeyondthe100milliontarget
    setunderMillenniumDevelopmentGoal(MDG)No.7.
    Duringthatperiod,theproportionofurbanresidents
    livinginslumsdroppedfrom39%to33%indevelop-
    ingcountries.However,asalsopointedoutinthereport,
    thesenumbersdonotshowthewholepicture.The
    numberofslumdwellershasactuallyincreasedconsid-
    erablyduringthisperiodandthistrendispredictedto
    continue(UN-HABITAT,2008).Thegurebelowshows
    slumpopulationnumbersintheworldsmajorregions
    between1990and2020.
    17.1.2Waterandurbanization
    Urbancentresinlowincomecountriesarealreadyfac-
    ingnumerouschallengessuchasinadequateinfra-
    structure,alackofbasicservicessuchaswaterand
    sanitation,andadeterioratingenvironmentcaused
    bypollution.Rapidurbanizationandtheextractionof
    resourcestomeetthedemandsofgrowingpopula-
    tionswillputenormousstressonwaterresourcesinand
    TABLE 17.1
    Tenlargesturbanconurbations,19602025
    By global income distribution
    Income classication Ten largest urban agglomerations
    1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025
    High income economies 7 6 5 5 3 2 2 2 2
    Lower middle income economies 1 2 2 4 5 5 5 5
    Low income economies 1 1 1 1
    Upper middle income economies 2 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
    By geographical region
    Region Ten largest urban agglomerations
    1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025
    Countries of the Commonwealth
    of Independent States
    1 1
    Developed regions 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2
    Eastern Asia 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
    Latin America 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
    Southern Asia 2 2 3 5 5 5 5
    Source: Based on data from UN-DESA (2010), 30 largest cities data at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/CD-ROM_2009/WUP2009-F11a-30_
    Largest_Cities.xls).
    CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 426 CHAPTER17
    aroundthecitiesaswellasonecosystemsasawhole.
    Moreover,theexpansionofpavedandsurfacedareas
    suchasroofs,pavementsandparkinglots,afectsthe
    localhydrologyandreducesthenaturalinltrationof
    waterintothegroundwhichresultsinhigherpeak
    owsduringstorms.
    Althoughtheprovisionofwaterandsanitationtour-
    banresidentshasimprovedindevelopingcountries,
    itisnotkeepingupwiththerapidpaceofurbaniza-
    tion.AccordingtotheWHO/UNICEFJointMonitoring
    Programme(JMP)onwaterandsanitation,theworldis
    ontracktomeettheMDGondrinkingwater.Thispre-
    dictionisbasedonthestatisticthat87%oftheworld
    populationalreadyhadaccesstoimprovedwatersourc-
    esin2008,comparedwithonly77%in1990(WHO/
    UNICEF,2010).
    However,theproblemisthatinurbanareas,thein-
    creaseinaccesstodrinkingwaterhasbeenonlyamini-
    mal1%duringthesameperiod.Butinabsoluteterms,
    thenumberofurbanresidentswithaccesstoimproved
    sourcesofdrinkingwaterhasactuallydecreased.The
    caseofsanitationissimilar.Between1990and2008,
    some813millionurbanresidentsgainedrst-timeac-
    cesstoimprovedsanitationfacilities,butduringthe
    sameperiod,thetotalurbanpopulationgrewbyover
    abillion.Thismeansthatthetotalnumberofurban
    dwellerswhodonothaveaccesstoimprovedsanitation
    actuallyincreasedby276millioninthisperiod(WHO/
    UNICEF,2010).Asurbanpopulationskeepgrowing,ef-
    fortstoimprovewatersupplyandsanitationinAfricas
    andAsiasurbanareasclearlymustbesteppedup,par-
    ticularlyforthepoor.
    Suchefortsshouldcomeaspartofanintegratedap-
    proachthatencompassesthemanagementofup-
    streamcatchmentareasandriverbasins,andwater-
    relatedandsanitation-relatedinfrastructure(including
    treatment,storageanddistribution),aswellascon-
    servationoftheaquaticenvironmentinthereceiv-
    ingwaterbodiesdownstream.Asrapidurbanization
    putspressureonexistinginfrastructureandservices,
    andwithclimatechangecompoundingtheadverse
    impactsonwateravailabilityandthefrequencyof
    water-relateddisasters,futurelinksbetweenwaterand
    urbanizationmustbeanalysedandmanagedmore
    carefullythanever.
    Achievingsustainablewatersuppliesandimprovedsan-
    itationinthecitiesofdevelopingcountrieswillrequire
    capitalinvestment,improvedgovernance,politicalwill
    andanewethicthatvaluesallresourcesandecosys-
    tems.Figure17.3depictsthecomplexinterplaybetween
    challenges,thevariablesthatcanpotentiallybeman-
    aged,andsomepromisingstrategiesthatcanbeadopt-
    edbygovernmentsandotherstakeholders.Although
    somebroadtrends,suchasthescaleandnatureof
    FIGURE 17.2
    Slumpopulationbyregion,19902020(thousands)
    Source: Produced by UN-Habitat based on data available at http://ww2.unhabitat.org/programmes/guo/documents/Table4.pdf (published in
    their State of the Worlds Cities Report 2001).
    1,600,000
    1,400,000
    1,200,000
    1,000,000
    800,000
    600,000
    400,000
    200,000
    0
    Europe
    Other
    NorthernAfrica
    Sub-SaharanAfrica
    LatinAmericaand
    TheCaribbean
    EasternAsia
    South-centralAsia
    South-EastAsia
    WesternAsia
    Oceania
    1990 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020
    WWDR4 427 HUMANSETTLEMENTS
    urbanizationandthedepletionordegradationofwater
    resources,maybediscernible,managinguncertainty
    andriskwillbecritical.
    17.2Waterabstraction
    Themainsourcesofwaterinurbanareasaresurface
    waterinupstreamcatchmentareas,groundwaterinor
    aroundthecityandrainwater.Thesewatersources,par-
    ticularlytheupstreamcatchmentareasofriverbasins
    andgroundwaterreserves,mustbepreservedandused
    wiselytoensurelong-termsustainability.
    Indevelopingcountries,groundwatersourcesareex-
    tremelyimportantforurbancentresbecausetheypro-
    videarelativelylow-costwatersupplythatisusuallyof
    ahighquality.However,intensiveexploitationofsuch
    resourceshasledtomajorandwidespreadfallsinaqui-
    ferlevels.InconurbationssuchasBangkok,Manilaand
    theChinesecityofTianjin,levelshavefallenbyasmuch
    as20mto50m,andinmanyothersbybetween10m
    and20m.Inallthesecases,thedropinlevelshasbeen
    accompaniedbyeitherlandsubsidence,adeterioration
    ingroundwaterqualityor,insomecases,byboth.In
    MexicoCity,theaquiferlevelfellbybetween5mand10
    mbetween1986and1992,andsectionsofthecityhave
    sunkby8mormoreoverthelast60years(Fosteretal.,
    1998;Huttonetal.2008).Incoastalareas,over-abstrac-
    tionresultsinsaltwaterintrusion.InEurope,53outof
    126groundwaterareasshowsaltwaterintrusion.Thisis
    mostlyinaquifersthatareusedforpublicandindustrial
    watersupplies(Elimelech,2006),
    Freshwaterwithdrawalsforagricultureexceedwith-
    drawalsforothersectors(households,manufacturing,
    etc.).Butwithdrawalsareexpectedtoriseinallsec-
    tors(Fig.17.4),andcitiesindevelopingcountrieswillbe
    mostafected.By2025,waterwithdrawalsareexpected
    toriseby50%indevelopingcountriesasopposedto
    18%risesindevelopedcountries.Inadditiontohighag-
    riculturaldemand,pressureonwaterresourcesiscom-
    poundedbythephysicalalterationanddestructionof
    habitatscausedbyurbanandindustrialdevelopments
    (UNEP,2007).
    FIGURE 17.3
    Issuesandsolutionsrelatedtowaterandurbanization
    Source: WSS-II, WSIB, UN-HABITAT.


    Waterandurbanization
    Issues
    Factors
    Climate
    change
    impacts
    Rapidly
    increasing
    urbangrowth
    Comprehensive
    cityplanning,
    integratedurban
    waterandsolid
    wastemanagement
    TARGET
    Sustainableurban
    watersupplyand
    improvedenvironmental
    sanitationintheworldscities
    Selfsustainingurban
    environments;resource
    recovery,waterdemand
    management;reduce,
    reuseandrecycle
    Rightsbasedapproaches,
    reducecorruptionandfraud,
    communitydriven
    User/polluterpay
    principle($)innovative
    nancing,increased
    budgetarysupport
    Technology
    Ageing,
    deteriorated
    andabsent
    infrastructure
    Financesand
    investments
    Ethicsand
    values
    Strengthened
    capacityforimproved
    servicedelivery
    Advocacy,awareness
    raising,education
    (HVWSHE)
    Policialwill
    Public
    awareness
    Governance,
    transparency,
    accountability,
    equity,
    capacity
    Solution
    strategies
    CHAPTER17 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 428
    17.2.1Dischargeofwastewater
    Inthecourseofthehydrologicalcycle,watersustains
    communitiesandeconomiesthroughoutthewatershed
    asitisusedinagriculture,inindustryandbydomes-
    ticconsumers(Figure17.4).However,theseusersdo
    notreturnthewatertheyextractinitsoriginalcondi-
    tion(Corcoranetal.,2010).Acrosstheworld,thetotal
    sewage,agriculturalwasteandindustrialefuentdis-
    chargedintowaterwaysamountsto2milliontonnes
    everyyear(Corcoranetal.,2010).Muchofthiswaste
    comesfromurbanareas.
    Figure17.5depictstheratiooftreatedtountreated
    wastewaterdischargedintowaterbodiesacrossten
    regionsoftheworld.Urbanwastewaterposesapar-
    ticularlyseriousthreatwhencombinedwithuntreated
    industrialwaste.Treatedurbansewageislargelylimited
    tohighincomecountries,whileindevelopingcountries
    about90%ofsewageisdischargedwithoutanytreat-
    ment.InIndonesia,Jakartas9millionresidentsgener-
    ate1.3millionm
    3
    ofsewagedaily,ofwhichlessthan3%
    istreated.Bycontrast,Sydney,Australiaslargestcity,
    whichhasapopulationofover4million,treatsnearly
    allitswastewater,some1.2millionm
    3
    perday(Corcoran
    etal.,2010).Pointsourcessuchaswheresewageis
    dischargedarebeingcontrolledmoreandmore,and
    theconcernisnowshiftingtonon-pointpollutantloads
    fromstorm-generatedrunof.
    Nutrientsinthewastewaterdischargedfrommunicipal
    treatmentplantsandtherunoffromcitiesandfarms
    poseamajorhealthproblem.Thesenutrientshave
    causedanincreaseinharmfulalgalbloomsinfreshwa-
    terandcoastalsystemsoverthelasttwentyyears
    (UNEP,2007).Itisestimatedthatabout245,000km
    2

    ofmarineecosystemsfeaturedeadzonescausedby
    thedischargeofuntreatedwastewater,whichhasa
    detrimentalefectonsheries,livelihoodsandthefood
    chain.Suchdischargemerelyshiftsproblemsfrom
    upstreamtodownstreamareas.
    Poorsanitationandinadequatewastewatermanage-
    mentindevelopingcountriesresultsinthecontamina-
    tionoffreshwatersources,andisamajorcauseofdis-
    easeanddeath,particularlyamongchildren.Italsoholds
    seriouseconomicandenvironmentalconsequences.For
    instance,WorldBankresearchinSouth-EastAsiafound
    thatCambodia,Indonesia,thePhilippinesandVietnam
    loseanestimatedUS$9billionayearbecauseofpoor
    sanitation.Thisamountstoabout2%oftheircombined
    grossdomesticproduct(GDP)(Huttonetal.,2008).
    FIGURE 17.4
    Changesinglobalwateruse,bysector
    Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/
    changes-in-global-water-use-by-sector, by Bounford.com and UNEP/
    GRID-Arendal with sources UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2002, based on
    Shiklomanov and UNESCO 1999).
    Agricultural
    Domestic
    Industrial
    Reservoir
    Withdrawal
    Consumptive
    use
    Returnsand
    waste
    Withdrawal
    Consumptive
    use
    Returnsand
    waste
    Withdrawal
    Consumptive
    use
    Returnsand
    waste
    3200
    km
    3
    0
    2400
    1600
    800
    1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025
    1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025
    1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025
    1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025
    400
    1200
    2000
    2800
    assessment forecast
    1600
    km
    3
    0
    1200
    800
    400
    assessment forecast
    400
    km
    3
    0
    300
    200
    100
    50
    150
    250
    350
    assessment forecast
    800
    km
    3
    0
    600
    400
    200
    100
    300
    500
    700
    assessment forecast
    Evaporation
    1400
    1000
    600
    200
    WWDR4 429 HUMANSETTLEMENTS
    FIGURE 17.5
    Urbanfreshwaterandwastewatercycle:Waterwithdrawalandpollutantdischarge
    FIGURE 17.6
    Ratiooftreatedtountreatedwastewaterdischargedintowaterbodies(March2010)
    Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater-and-wastewater-cycle-water-withdrawal-and-pollutant-discharge,
    by UNEP/GRID-Arendal with sources WHO, FAO, UNESCO and IWMI).
    UNEP/GRID-Arendal (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/ratio-of-wastewater-treatment1, a map by H. Ahlenius, adapted from a map by H.
    Ahlenius [http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/ratio -of-wastewater-treatment, sources UNEP-GPA, 2004]).
    70%
    8%
    22%
    Agriculture
    Domestic
    Industry
    Urban
    Evapo-
    traspiration
    Ecosystem
    degradation
    Rain
    Rural
    Reusingprocessed
    sewage
    Contaminated
    foodprovision
    Drinkingwatertreatment
    Globalwaterwithdrawal
    percentagebysector
    Wastewater
    discharge
    Sewagesludge
    Mediterranean
    Untreated
    Treated
    Caribbean
    Westand
    CentralAfrica
    Southern
    Asia
    East
    Asia
    CaspianSea
    CentralandEastEurope
    BalticSea
    North
    Atlantic
    Western
    Europe
    CHAPTER17 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 430
    BOX 17.1
    Water-savingsanitationmethods:Reviewingthe
    options
    Sanitation,particularlytheuseofmodernushtoilets,
    ranksamongthemajorsourcesofwaterdemandinurban
    areas.Conventionalushingsystemsuse10Lto12Lof
    waterperush,wastinglargeamountsofwaterandpol-
    lutingwaterbodies.Themainalternativestoconventional
    toiletsincludetheSulabhtoilet,urine-divertingdrytoilets,
    andwaterlessurinals,allofwhichreducewaterconsump-
    tionwhileimprovingsanitationstandards.Amongthese,
    probablythemostpopularistheSulabhushcompost-
    ingtoiletdevelopedbyBindeshwarPathakandhisteam
    atSulabhInternationalinNewDelhi.Thesetoiletsarevery
    popularinIndiaaswellasinotherdevelopingcountries.
    Whendevelopingatechnology,itisimportanttokeep
    localcultureinmind.TheSulabhtoiletwasdesignedto
    suitthespecicneedsofpeoplewhousewaterforanal
    cleansingaswellasforushing.Tosavewater,Sulabhtoi-
    letsuseonly1Lto1.5Lperush,asopposedtothe10L
    to12Lusedinconventionaltoilets.
    Ontopofthesesignicantsavings,theSulabhtechnol-
    ogyalsohelpstoreduceglobalwarmingbecauseitpre-
    ventsgreenhousegasemissionsintotheatmosphere.And
    inpublictoiletswhereabiogasdigesterislinkedup,the
    gasesareburnedwhentheyareusedforcooking,lighting
    andproducingenergy.
    amountofwaterthatsrequiredforsanitationwhichin
    turnlowerstheamountofwastewaterthatsreturnedto
    theenvironmentuntreated(seeBox17.1).
    17.2.2Urbanwaterneedsandtheirefectson
    ecosystems
    Humanactivitieshaveahugeefectonfreshwatereco-
    systemsacrosstheworld.Freshwaterdeteriorationis
    particularlyacuteincultivatedsystems,drylands,wet-
    landsandurbanareas.However,theefectthaturban
    waterrequirementshaveonecosystemsisnotfullyor
    systematicallyresearched.Citiesarehighlydiverse,and
    theefectsthattheirwaterneedshaveonecosystems
    varyconsiderablyfromonetoanother.
    Whennaturallandsurfacesareturnedintoimpervious
    surfacessuchaspavedstreets,parkinglotsandroofs,
    thepercolationofrainwaterandsnowmeltintothesoil
    isinhibited.Theowvelocityofwateroverthelandis
    increased,transferringpollutantsintoreceivingwater
    systemsChiramba,2010).Thereclamationofinland
    andcoastalwatersystemshascausedthelossofmany
    coastalandoodplainecosystemsandservices.Lost
    wetlandshaveresultedinchangedowregimes,with
    increasedoodinginsomeplacestogetherwithshrink-
    ingwildlifehabitats(UNEP,2007).
    Healthywaterecosystemsbringmultiplebenetsto
    variousaspectsofurbanlife.Wetlandsprovideim-
    portantnaturalwastewatertreatmentfunctions.For
    instance,inXiameninChina,municipalauthorities
    generaterevenuebyimposingnesonpollutersand
    chargingfeesforanumberoffacilitiessuchasusing
    marineareas.Improvedwastewatertreatmentfacili-
    tieshaveledtoanincreaseinthequantityofwaste-
    waterbeingdischargedwhichhasalsoresultedin
    anincreaseinXiamensrevenues.Thishasallowedthe
    cityauthoritiestospendUS$2billiononsewagetreat-
    mentsystemssincethemid-1990s.Theresultofthis
    hasbeenahugeincreaseintheproportionofindus-
    trialanddomesticwastethatsbeingprocessed.Inthe
    mid-1990s,just20%ofindustrialwastewaterwaspro-
    cessed,tenyearslater,thatgurehadreached100%.
    Andtheguresfordomesticwastewaterprocessing
    arealmostasimpressivewithanincreasefrom28%
    to85%overthemuchsameperiod.TodayXiamen
    attractsimmigrants,touristsandreal-estatedevelop-
    ment(Chiramba,2010).
    InKolkatainIndia,pondsprovidealowcost,natural
    wastewaterreuseandtreatmentsysteminacitythat
    Evenwhereextensiveseweragenetworksandtreat-
    mentplantsareinplace,theyarealltoooftenunable
    toadjusttoongoing,rapidurbanexpansionandthe
    associatedmassivecapitalexpenditurerequired.Inad-
    dition,theyoftendonothaveadequatecapacityinthe
    areasofplanning,design,operationsandmaintenance.
    Alternativessuchasof-sitesanitationanddecentralized
    wastewatertreatmentsystems(DEWATS)arerarelyex-
    plored,becauseofalackofawarenessamongpolicy-
    makersandplanners,andpoorcapacityamongutility
    staf.Asaresult,extensiveseweragesystemsoftenend
    upwithpoor,environmentallydamagingsanitationser-
    vicesandnexttonowastewatertreatment.
    Eveninthefaceofgrowingdemand,reusingandre-
    cyclingwaterremainexceptions.Justasoverlookedis
    thepotentialforrecoveringnutrientsandenergyfrom
    wastewaterforuseinfoodandfuelproduction.Ontop
    ofthesetwotypesoftechnology,itmustalsobehigh-
    lightedthatothertechnologiesexistthatcanreducethe
    Source: B. Pathak, Sulabh International (personal communication).
    WWDR4 431 HUMANSETTLEMENTS
    lacksconventionaltreatmentplants.Thissystemalso
    providesemploymentfor17,000poorshermenand
    produces20tonnesofshdaily(NewmanandJennings,
    2008;UNEP,2002).
    Everyyearacrosstheworld,coastalecosystemsprovide
    anestimatedUS$25billionworthofservicesintheform
    offoodsecurity,shorelineprotection,tourismand
    carbonsequestration(Naberetal.,2008).InZanzibar,
    marineecosystemservicesaccountfor30%ofGDP,
    77%ofinvestment,largeamountsofforeigncurrencyand
    numerousjobs(LangeandJiddawi,2009).Caribbean
    countriesdependoncoralreefsfortourism,sheries
    andshorelineprotection.Degradationofthesereefs
    couldreducenetbenetsbybetweenUS$350million
    andUS$870millionayear.Becauseconventionalurban
    managementishardlyconcernedwithwaterresources
    management,adverseefectsareexpectedtocontinue
    beforethecostsandbenetsarefullyrecognized.
    17.3Climatechangeandresilienturban
    watersystems
    Alongsideurbanization,climatechangeisasecond,
    major,long-termandhuman-inducedfactorthatafects
    naturalandhumansystemsalikeallovertheworld.It
    hasfar-reachingconsequencesonenvironmental,eco-
    nomicandsocialstability(UN-HABITAT,2011).Aswith
    urbanization,theefectsofclimatechangearelikelyto
    befeltmoresharplyindevelopingthanindeveloped
    countries.
    Therearecloselinksbetweencitiesandclimatechange.
    Cities,wherenowhalfofhumankindlives,areresponsi-
    bleforupto70%ofgreenhousegasemissionsaround
    theworld;andurbanpopulationsarealsovulnerableto
    theefectsofclimatechange(UN-HABITAT,2011).Cities
    alsoprovidethegreatestopportunitiesforcombating
    climatechangefortworeasons:theyareoftencentres
    ofinnovation,andactiontakenatcitylevelcanreach
    outtoalargenumberofpeople.
    Althoughvulnerabilitytotheefectsofclimatechange
    variesfromplacetoplace,indevelopingcountries,poor
    people,particularlypoorwomen,standoutasthemost
    vulnerable.Manypoorwomenliveinrisk-proneslums,
    alongriverbanksforexample,andtheiradaptiveca-
    pacitiesareminimal(IPCC,2007).
    Watergenerallyactsasacriticallinkbetweenclimate
    changeanditsefectsonhumanandphysicalsystems.
    Risingtemperatureswillchangethehydrologicalcycle,
    which,inturn,mayaltertemporalandspatialrainfall
    patternsandtriggerextremeeventssuchasdroughts
    andoods.Urbanwatersystemsarelikelytobevery
    vulnerabletotheefectsofclimatechange,particularly
    indevelopingcountrieswheretheyarepoorlyman-
    agedandill-equippedtodealwithchangedconditions.
    Therefore,variouscomponentsofurbanwatersystems
    suchastheprotectionschemesforcatchmentareas,
    watersupplysystems,wastewatertreatmentplantsand
    drainagenetworksmustbedesignedandmanagedina
    climate-sensitivemanner.
    Thedirectefectsofclimatechangeincludethede-
    structionofinfrastructureandfacilities.Thisafects,
    amongotherthings,theregularprovisionofwatersup-
    plies,drainageandseweragesystemsandsolidwaste
    management.Ifthesesystemsandnetworksareto
    becomesustainable,theymustbemoreresilienttose-
    vereweatherevents.Forinstance,thecapacityofwater
    drainageorcombinedsewersmustbeadirectfunction
    ofrainfallintensity(asmeasuredinmm/hr).
    Onthewhole,climatechangeaddstotheuncertainty
    andseverityofextremewater-relatedevents.Floods
    anddroughtsarebecomingincreasinglyunpredictable
    andmoredevastatinginmanyhotspotsthatarealso
    experiencingrapidurbanization.Theexistinginfrastruc-
    tureisunabletocope,andpublichealthisendangered
    becauseofacomplexcombinationoffactorssuchas
    thedispersalofhumanexcretaduringoods,orin-
    creasedpathogenloadsinfreshwatersuppliescaused
    byrisingwatertemperatures.Inthefaceofthecom-
    binedchallengeofurbanizationandclimatechange,
    urbanwatersupplyandsanitationinfrastructuremust
    bemadeclimateproof.Whatarealsoneededarepro-
    cessesthatcangenerateoptimalwatermanagement
    systemsprocessesthatarerobust,adaptableand
    sustainableunderthesefutureglobalchangepressures
    (Bateset.al,2008).Suchexiblesystemswouldbe
    characterizedbytheircapabilitytoadapttochanging
    scenariosandassociateduncertainties.
    Thesechallengescanbeaddressedwithnewtechniques,
    includingexploratorymodellingthatcombinesthebest
    featuresoftraditionalquantitativedecisionanalysiswith
    thoseofnarrative,scenario-basedplanning.Techniques
    suchasriskassessmentandrealoptionsanalysis
    (ZhaoandTseng,2003)alsooferopportunitiesinthis
    respect.Realoptions-baseddecision-makingrecogniz-
    esthevalueofexibility,includingexibilityinexamin-
    ingalternativesandfuturedecision-making,andcanbe
    CHAPTER17 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 432
    implementedinaexiblewayasandwhenrequiredto
    copewithuncertainty.
    Somecitieshavebeguntodevelopplansforvulner-
    abilityassessmentsandadaptation.Assistingthemin
    thisprocessareorganizationssuchasUN-HABITAT,
    theInternationalCouncilforLocalEnvironmental
    Initiatives(ICLEI)andtheWorldMayorsCouncilon
    ClimateChange.Since2008,UN-HABITATsCitiesand
    ClimateChangeInitiativehasaimedtoenhancethe
    capacityofcitiesindevelopingcountriestomitigate
    andadapttoclimatechangethroughcollaborationbe-
    tweencities,enhanceddomesticpolicydialogue,risk
    assessmentanddesigningpilotprojects.Aspartofthe
    Initiative,UN-HABITATissupportingthepreparation
    ofVulnerabilityAssessmentandAdaptationPlansin18
    citiesacrossAsiaandAfrica(UN-HABITAT,2011).These
    plansaredevelopedinaparticipatorymanor,andthis
    ensureswomensinvolvementinprocessesthatare
    properlyimplementedandcanbemonitoredonanon-
    goingbasis.Suchanapproachisexpectedtopromote
    designsthatareexibleenoughtoadapttonew,dif-
    ferentorchangingrequirements.Itisalsoverylikelyto
    resultinleastregretsolutionsinwhatseemsboundto
    remainanuncertainenvironment.
    17.3.1Infrastructurethatisaging,deterioratedor
    absent
    Mostcitiesindevelopingcountriesfaceanurgentneed
    toprovidewaterandsanitationinfrastructureandserv-
    icestorapidlyexpandingpopulations.Andmanyolder
    cities,includingcitiesindevelopedcountries,arealso
    facedwithanaginganddeterioratedwaterinfrastruc-
    ture,whichiscostlytorehabilitate.Aswellascatering
    forever-expandingurbanpopulations,poorpopulations
    inparticular,thesesystemsmustbedesignedtoadapt
    toandmitigatethechallengesposedbyglobalclimate
    change.
    Manycitiesaroundtheworldfacecapitalexpendi-
    turebacklogsforwatersupplysystemsthathavent
    beenmaintainedorupgradedforaverylongtime.
    Thisinfrastructureislikelytoincludesourceprotec-
    tion,watertransmissionlines,treatmentsystems,stor-
    agefacilitiesanddistributionnetworks.Muchofthis
    infrastructureisover100yearsold,whichputspub-
    lichealthatincreasedriskbecauseleaks,obstructions
    andmalfunctionsaremorelikelyasequipmentages.
    Forexample,theUnitedKingdomisservedbyover
    700,000kmofmainsandsewerpipes,whichrequire
    over35,000maintenanceoperationspermonth(Khatri
    andVairavamoorthy,2007).Similarly,inKathmanduin
    Nepal,someofthewaterpipesareover100yearsold.
    Here,planninghaseludedtheexpansionofwaterand
    sewernetworksformanyyearsandabout40%ofdrink-
    ingwaterisunaccountedfor,mainlyasaresultofleaks.
    Highleakageratesresultinincreasedwaterdemandas
    wellasgreaterriskofcontaminationandthespreadof
    waterbornediseases(Vairavamoorthyetal.,2007).
    Therehabilitationofurbanwatersystemsisbecoming
    increasinglyexpensive.InGermany,forexample,
    estimatesarethatoverthenext15years,12billion(or
    US$16billion)willberequiredannuallythats
    6.5billion(US$9billion)fornewfacilitiesand5.5billion
    (US$7.5billion)foroperationandmaintenance.(Hiessl
    etal.,2001).InNorthAmerica,trillionsofdollarsworth
    ofinfrastructureisfailingprematurelyandisinneedof
    costlyrepairs.TheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgency
    anticipatesafundinggapofoverUS$500billionoverthe
    next20yearsinwaterinfrastructureinvestment(USEPA,
    2002).
    Asmightbeexpected,thedeteriorationofurbanwa-
    terinfrastructureisoftenmoresevereincitiesinthe
    developingworld.Thisistheresultofpoorconstruc-
    tionpractices,littleornomaintenanceanddemands
    thattheinfrastructureoperatesathighercapacities
    thanitwasdesignedfor.Missingrecords,oralackof
    dataonthelocationandconditionofwaterandwaste-
    waterinfrastructures,combineswithalackofefcient
    managementtomaketheproblemsevenmorecomplex
    (Misiunas,2005).
    17.3.2Integratedwatermanagementandnewurban
    planning
    Becausewaterowsinacycle,nourbanwatersys-
    temcanbeconsideredinisolation.Noonecanaford
    tooverlookcitieslinkswithupstreamcatchmentsand
    downstreamareas,especiallyasalmostallareasdown-
    streamofurbandevelopmentsarelefttocopewith
    urbanwastetosomeextentoranother.Evenwithina
    givenurbanarea,thevariouscomponentsofthewater
    systemgroundwater,waterdistributionandsewerage
    networkstypicallyinteract.Theseinteractionsmustbe
    understoodandtakenintoconsiderationifwatersupply
    andsanitationservicesaretobecomeefective,efcient
    andsustainable.
    Likeitsruralcounterpart,integratedurbanwaterman-
    agement(IUWM)isbasedonasystemsapproach
    thatlooksatthehydrologicalcycleasawholefrom
    WWDR4 433 HUMANSETTLEMENTS
    TheSingaporewaterstoryisoneofpoliticaldetermina-
    tion,integratedmanagement,continuousinnovationand
    communitypartnership.Inthe1960safterindependence,
    thecity-stateexperiencedwidespreadwatershortages
    causebyrapiddemographicexpansionandindustrializa-
    tion.LedbythePublicUtilitiesBoard(PUB),whichisthe
    nationalwateragency,Singaporehasturneditsinherent
    waterscarcityintogrowthopportunities.Takingadvan-
    tageofmoderntechnologies,thePUBhasdiversiedwa-
    tersuppliesundertheFourNationalTapsstrategy:local
    catchment,imports,NEWater(thatis,treatedandrecy-
    cledwastewater),anddesalination.Today,NEWatercan
    meet30%ofdemand,comparedwithonly10%forde-
    salination.Theplanisthatby2060NEWatershouldmeet
    50%ofSingaporeswaterdemandanddesalination30%.
    PUBalsoengagesthecommunity,encouragingwisewa-
    teruse,advisingagainstthepollutionofcatchmentsand
    waterways,andbuildingacloserrelationshipwithwater
    throughleisureandentertainmentactivities.
    Throughlong-termplanning,Singaporehasbuiltin-
    frastructuresuchastheMarinaBarragetoservethe
    three-in-onefunctions:waterstorage,oodcontroland
    leisurepursuits.Thecity-statealsobuilttheDeepTunnel
    SewerageSystemtomeetSingaporesneedsforthecol-
    lection,treatmentanddisposalofusedwateroverthe
    next100years.Theplanstomeetwaterneedsforthe
    next50yearswereannouncedatthe2010Singapore
    InternationalWaterWeek(SIWW).
    Throughcollaborationwiththeprivatesector,Singapore
    hascreatedavibrantwatersectorcomprising70mutu-
    allysupportivecompanies.Waterhasevenbeenidentied
    asoneofthecity-statesneweconomicgrowthengines.
    TheequivalentofUS$261millionhasbeencommitted
    overveyearstoexpandthesectorthroughresearchand
    development.
    Singaporeestablishedanannualevent(SIWW)andan
    InstituteofWaterPolicyattheLeeKuanYewSchoolof
    PublicPolicywiththeintentofsharingitsexperiences,
    enhancingitscapabilitiesandprovidingleadershipinwa-
    tergovernancethroughresearchandeducation.
    catchmenttoconsumptionandtreatment.Suchaper-
    spectiveincludesanylinksbetweenthevariouscom-
    ponentswithinthesystem.Theapproachrecognizes
    humanaswellasecologicaldemandsforwater,and
    setsouttobalanceenvironmental,economic,technical
    andsocialneedsintheshorttermaswellasthelong
    term.Inpractice,thismeansthattheplanningandman-
    agementofurbanwatersystemsmustconsiderwater
    requirementsforhumanhealth,environmentalprotec-
    tionandeconomicactivitiesaswellasforurbandesign
    andrecreation.Thisapproachdemandsanintegrated
    andmultidisciplinaryapproachwhereurbanplanners
    workcloselywithwaterengineers,landscapearchitects,
    economistsandsocialscientists(SWITCH,2006).
    InKathmandu,Nepalsomeprogresshasbeenmade
    towardsanIUWMapproach.TheBagmatiAction
    PlanwasdevelopedwithsupportfromUNEPand
    UN-HABITAT.Theschemeidentiesarangeofstake-
    holdersandcorrespondingactionsthatareneeded
    topreventthepollutionoftheBagmatiRiver,which
    servesasthecitysmainwatersource.ThePlan
    adoptsaholisticapproachandsetsoutspecicstrat-
    egiesandactionsforvediferentzoneswithinthe
    KathmanduValley.Thescopeoftheplanrunsfrom
    theconservationzoneintheupstreamcatchment
    areaandextendsallthewaytothedownstreamzone.
    UnderthePlan,watershedmanagementandconser-
    vationisthemaingoalforupstreamareas;sustain-
    ableagricultureandeco-tourismaretobepromot-
    edinthesurroundingruralareas;anddecentralized
    wastewatertreatmentsystemsareapriorityforperi-
    urbancommunities(GoN/NTNC,2009).Fundsto
    implementtheplancomefromsettingasideasmall
    portionoftheregistrationfeeschargedonlandtrans-
    actionsintheKathmanduValley.
    Asurbanpopulationdensitiesincrease,theper-capita
    costofprovidingwatersupplyandsanitationservices
    canbereduced(economiesofscale)andcanmake
    serviceprovisionmoreefcient(economiesofscope).
    Thiscanalsoreducetheecologicalfootprintofcities.
    Thosecitiesinthedevelopingworldthataimtoim-
    proveservicestoever-expandingpopulationsshould
    consideranewplanningapproach,andreviewexist-
    ingdensityregulations,includinginperi-urbanar-
    easwheremostoftheexpansionistakingplace.The
    participationofthepoor,particularlypoorwomen,in
    planningwillbecritical.Thelayoutoftransportnet-
    workscansignicantlyimpactongrowthanddensity
    andshouldbecarefullyconsidered,keepinginmind
    thepotentialefectontheprovisionofwatersupply
    andsanitationservices.Newurbanlegislationcanalso
    promotemoresustainableserviceprovision.Forexam-
    ple,severalcountriesareadoptingpoliciesandregula-
    tionsforthepromotionofrainwaterharvesting.This
    simpletechniquecanreducewaterstressinanycity.
    Source: Public Utilities Board, Singapore.
    BOX 17.2
    Singapore:Amodelofintegratedwatermanagement
    CHAPTER17 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 434
    lnlndiamanystategovernmentshavemaderainwater
    harvestingmandatoryinbuildings.InNewDelhi,the
    MinistryofUrbanDevelopmentandPovertyAlleviation
    hasmodiedthebuildingby-lawstomakerainwater
    harvestingmandatoryinallnewbuildingsbuiltonplots
    largerthan100m
    2
    .Theygrantnancialassistanceofup
    to50%or100,000rupees(approximatelyUS$2,000)
    whicheverisless.TheStateofTamilNaduhasalso
    maderainwaterharvestingmandatoryforallpublicand
    privatebuildings.
    lnNepalthegovernmenthasenactedpoliciesand
    guidelinesonrainwaterharvesting,whilecitiessuchas
    Dharanareprovidingdiscountsofupto30%onbuild-
    ingpermitfeesforhousesthatinstallrainwaterharvest-
    ingsystems.
    lnAustraliathegovernmentsofVictoriaSouth
    Australia,SydneyandNewSouthWales,TheGold
    CoastandQueenslandhavetakenstepstoensurethat
    energy-efcientandwater-efcientmeasures,includ-
    ingrainwaterharvesting,areincorporatedintoallnew
    houses.
    lnCermanyrainwaterharvestingisencouragedbythe
    levyingofraintaxesontheamountofimpervioussur-
    faceapropertyhaswhererunofisdirectedstraightto
    thestormsewers.Soconvertingimperviouspavinginto
    porouspavedareasorharvestingrainwaterfromtheir
    rooftopsmakespropertyownerseligibleforareduction
    inraintax.
    lntheUnitedStatesseveralstatesandcitiesprovide
    incentivesforwaterconservation.ResidentsofArizona
    wereoferedaone-timetaxcreditof25%ofthecost
    ofwaterconservationsystemssuchasgreywaterand
    rainwaterrecycling,uptoamaximumofUS$1,000.The
    statehasallocatedapproximatelyUS$250,000annu-
    allytocoverthesetaxcredits.Similarly,theresidentsof
    SanAntonioinTexascanapplyforataxrebateofupto
    50%fortheirrainwaterharvestingprojects.
    17.3.3Resourcerecoveryandwaterdemand
    management
    Thecurrentmethodsofwaterresourcesmanagement
    andtheprovisionofwatersupplyandsanitationare
    comingunderenormouspressurefromrapidurbaniza-
    tion.Flushtoiletsandwaterbornesewagesystemsuse
    largequantitiesofwater,strainingalreadydepleted
    resources.Thismakesitallthemoreimportanttotake
    acriticallookintocurrentwateruseandsanitation
    practicesandtodevelopstrategiesandsystemsthat
    reducethewaste,notjustofwater,butofotherrelated
    resourcessuchasorganicmatterandnutrientsaswell.
    Inaconventionalsystem,waterisabstractedfrom
    surfacewaterorgroundwatersources,transportedto
    cities,treatedanddistributedtohouseholdsandinsti-
    tutionsforvarioususes.Afteruse,thewastewateris
    collected,treatedifpossible,anddischargedintowater
    bodies.Thisisalinearsystemwherealargeamountof
    ascarceresourceisusedonce,contaminatedandthen
    dischargedtopollutethedownstreamenvironment.In
    thisprocess,waterislostasaremanyothervaluable
    resourcessuchasorganicmatterandnutrients.These
    nutrientsarevaluableforagriculture,butsubstitutes
    suchaschemicalfertilizers(eitherminedormanufac-
    tured)areappliedtothelandinstead.Thismayresult
    infurtherdeteriorationofbothsoilandwaterresourc-
    es.Overall,thissystemisunsustainableandleadsto
    overexploitationofwaterbodies,thecontaminationof
    aquaticecosystems,soildegradationand,ultimately,to
    foodinsecurity.
    Intraditionalsocieties,sanitationsystemswerebuiltto
    maximizeresourcerecoveryandreuse.Inmanycoun-
    triesinAsia,Europe,LatinAmericaandCentralAmerica,
    excretausedtobecollectedandusedintheeldsas
    manure,thusclosingtheloopbetweenresourceuse
    andrecovery.Forinstance,inChina,farmershavebeen
    awareofthebenetsofhumanandanimalexcretain
    cropproductionformorethan2,500years.Thishas
    enabledChinesefarmerstosupporthigherpopulations
    withthecropstheyproduce.Somesocietieshavealso
    recycledexcretaasfuel.Forexample,inYemensolder
    cities,includingthecapital,Sanaa,separatesystemsfor
    collectionofexcretaandurinewerebuiltintoinmulti-
    storeybuildings.Thefaeceswascollected,driedand
    usedforfuel(Lthietal.,2011).
    Sanitationsystemsbuiltaroundtheconceptsofre-
    sourcerecoveryandreusehavebeenaroundforcen-
    turies.However,theybegantodisappearinthewake
    oftheindustrialrevolution(andtheassociatedurban
    expansion)whensewersystemsandnewlydeveloped
    chemicalfertilizerstookover.Bythemiddleofthe
    nineteenthcentury,industrializedcountriesturnedvery
    graduallytocentralizedwaterbornesanitationwith
    ushtoiletsconnectedtosewersystems.Later,large
    sewagetreatmentplantswerebuilttomeetenviron-
    mentalstandards.However,themalfunctionofthese
    treatmentplantsisnotinfrequent,leadingtowasteof
    moneyandenvironmentalpollution.
    Source: CSE (n.d.).
    BOX 17.3
    Policiesandlegislationonrainwaterharvesting
    fromaroundtheworld
    WWDR4 435 HUMANSETTLEMENTS
    Eveninindustrializedcountries,wastewatertreatment
    canremainachallengeforcities.InEurope,EUre-
    searchfoundin2001thatof540majorcities,only79
    hadtertiarysewagetreatmentand223hadsecondary
    treatment;72featuredincompleteprimaryorsecond-
    arytreatment,and168citieshadno(orunspecied)
    treatmentcapacity(EU,2001).InFebruary2002,the
    EuropeanCommissioneventookactionagainstFrance,
    Greece,Germany,Ireland,Luxembourg,Belgium,Spain
    andtheUnitedKingdomforallegedfailuretoimple-
    menttheEUUrbanWaterDirective(SEI,2008).Despite
    allthesefailings,thesustainabilityofthesesystemshas
    rarelybeenquestionedandtheyarestillconsideredto
    bethereferenceforsanitation.
    However,promisingnewapproacheswhichusewaste
    asaresourcesuchasecologicalsanitation(EcoSan)
    arenowgainingmorepopularity.Thewasteandwaste-
    waterfromhouseholds,forexample,canbeseparated
    intothefollowingstreamsandrecycled:
    Stormwater,whichcanbecapturedand,withmini-
    maltreatment,bereusedforanypurpose;
    Greywater,orwashwaterfromkitchensandbath-
    rooms,whichcanbetreatedandreusedforushing
    orirrigation;
    Blackwaterorfaeces,whichcanbeusedtoproduce
    energy(biogas)orcompost;
    Urineoryellowwater,whichcanbereusedasliquid
    fertilizer;and
    Organicwaste,whichcanbecompostedorusedto
    producebiogas.
    Inabidtopromotesustainablesanitationsystems,the
    WaterSupplyandSanitationCollaborativeCouncil
    endorsedtheBellagioPrinciplesforSustainable
    SanitationduringitsFifthGlobalForuminNovember
    2000(EAWAG,2005).Theseprinciplesconsiderwaste
    asaresourceandpromoteholistic,integratedandde-
    centralizedmanagement.
    Sustainableoptionsbasedontheseprinciplesinclude
    EcoSan,rainwaterharvestinganddecentralizedwaste-
    watertreatmentsystems(DEWATS).Thesedecentral-
    izedsystemsfocusonreducingdemandforwaterand
    preventingwaterpollutionandtheyhaveprovedef-
    fectiveinmanycommunitiesaroundtheworld.Thetime
    hascometodeploythesetechnologiesonalargerscale,
    particularlyinnewlyurbanizingareasandperi-
    urbanareasindevelopingcountries.
    ExperiencegainedfromtheprojectsUN-HABITAThas
    supportedovertheyearsprovesthatWaterDemand
    Management(WDM)forutilitiesisefective.The
    methodcansaveordefermassiveamountsofcapital
    expenditureonequipmentandnetworks.WDMentails
    awaterauditofthesupplysystem,theidenticationof
    areasofexcessiveconsumptionorleakage,therehabili-
    tationofinfrastructure,andthedeploymentoftechni-
    calandmanagerialcontrols.Thesemeasuresaremost
    efectivewhencombinedwithpublicawarenessraising
    andeducationprogrammes(McKenzieetal,2003).
    Promotionofsustainablesanitationandholisticwa-
    termanagementsystemswillrequireknowledgeofthe
    watercycleasawholeandhowitisafectedbyhuman
    Largeconventionalwastewatertreatmentplantsareoften
    expensivetoestablishanddifculttooperate.Asare-
    sult,manycitiesindevelopingcountriesareunabletoset
    upsuchplantsandoperatethemproperly.Transporting
    thewastewaterthroughdrainsisthemaincostofurban
    wastewatermanagement.Butdecentralizedtreatment
    systemsthatarebasedonsimpleyetefectivetechnolo-
    giesandthathavemaximumcommunityownershipcan
    serveasanalternativeindevelopingcountries.
    Sinceitwasdevelopedinthe1990s,theDecentralized
    WastewaterTreatmentSystems(DEWATS)approachhas
    provedtobesuccessfulinmanycommunities,particularly
    inslums,peri-urbansettlementsandinstitutionsinAsia
    andAfrica.InIndonesia,forexample,theCommunity-
    BasedSanitation(SANIMAS)programme(whichstarted
    asapilotprojectinsixlocationsin2003)hasnowbeen
    deployedonanationwidescalecoveringmorethan
    420clustersalloverthecountry.Similarly,manyslum
    settlementsinIndiancitiessuchasBangaloreandMumbai
    alsoenjoycommunity-basedsanitationfacilities.Someof
    thesealsogeneratebiogasforcookingandslurryfor
    vegetablegardening.
    TheDEWATSapproachisbasedontheprinciplesofde-
    centralizationofresponsibility,simplicationoftechnol-
    ogyandprocesses,and,wherepossible,theconserva-
    tionandrecyclingofwasteenergyandnutrients.This
    modularsystemcombinestechnicaloptionssuchasset-
    tlers,biogasplants,anaerobicbafereactors,construct-
    edwetlandsandponds.Alloptionsinvolvecommunity
    participation.
    Source: Gutterer et al. (2009).
    BOX 17.4
    Decentralizedandcommunity-basedsanitation
    systems
    CHAPTER17 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 436
    activities.Inthisprocess,waterandurbanmanagers
    couldtakeadvantageoftheSustainableSanitationand
    WaterManagementToolbox(Box17.4).
    17.4Watereducation
    Itisincreasinglyrecognizedthatimprovementsinwa-
    termanagementcannotbeaccomplishedbytechnical
    orregulatorymeasuresalone.Thesemustbecomple-
    mentedwithchangesinbehaviourandinattitudes
    totheuseofwaterinsociety.Followingtherecom-
    mendationsofanInternationalExpertGroupMeeting
    heldinJohannesburg,SouthAfrica,inMay2001,UN-
    HABITAThasbeenpromotingtheHumanValues-Based
    approachtoWater,SanitationandHygienepromo-
    tion(HVBWSHE).Thishasincludedrunningmany
    HVBWSHEtrainingcoursesandthepublicationofthe
    Facilitators and Trainers Guidebook.Inadditiontodis-
    seminatinginformationonwater,sanitationandhygiene,
    thisinnovativeapproachinspiresandmotivatesthe
    publictochangeitsbehaviourinfavourofthewiseand
    sustainableuseofwaterandsanitation.Experiencehas
    shownthatavalues-basedapproachhasmanyben-
    ets:itdoesnotaddtothecurrentschoolcurriculum
    becauseitcaneasilybemainstreamedintotheexisting
    curriculum,anditcreatesalastingefectthroughchar-
    acterdevelopmentonceitisunderstood,appreciated
    andpractisedbychildrenandyoungadults.Thisnow
    provenapproachhasbeenadoptedinseveralcountries
    inAsia,AfricaandLatinAmericawithsupportfromUN-
    HABITATandotheragencies.
    17.5Financingthewatersector
    Meetingwideranginghumanneedsaswellaslooking
    afterthenaturalenvironmentinasustainablemanner
    comesatacost.Thisisoftenignoredorunderestimated
    bygovernmentsandindividuals,whichresultsindys-
    functionalwatersystemsandadeteriorationofcriti-
    calservices.Sustainablefundingisrequiredforwater
    resourcesmanagementasawhole,includingproviding
    watersupplyandsanitationservices,andintegrative
    functionssuchaspolicyandlegislationdevelopment,
    capacitybuilding,researchandgoodgovernance.
    AchievingtheMDGtargetsforaccesstodrinkingwater
    andsanitationwillalsorequiresignicantamountsof
    capitalexpenditure,particularlyinlowincomecountries
    andleastdevelopedcountries.However,thebenetsas-
    sociatedwithwaterandsanitation,suchasreductions
    inhealthcostsandincreasesinthenumberofproduc-
    tivedays,willfaroutweighthecostofprovidingsafe
    waterandsanitation.Researchhasshownthatevery
    singledollarinvestedindrinkingwaterandsanita-
    tioncanyieldapaybackofUS$7.40peryear.Similarly,
    achievingtheMDGtargetswouldresultinanadditional
    320millionproductivedayseveryyearasaresultof
    improvedhealth,andatimesavingof20billionworking
    days(Prss-stnetal.,2008).
    Inspiteoftheseclearbenets,capitalexpenditureon
    drinkingwaterandsanitationhasarelativelylowpri-
    orityforofcialdevelopmentassistance(ODA)ordo-
    mesticallocations,comparedwithothersocialdevel-
    opmentsectorssuchashealthandeducation.Between
    1997and2008,totalinternationalassistanceforwater-
    relatedprojects(asmeasuredbytheOrganisationfor
    EconomicCo-operationandDevelopment[OECD])
    decreasedfrom8%to5%oftotaloverseasdevelop-
    mentaid.Yetduringthesameperiod,aidforhealth
    projectsincreasedfrom7%to12%.Furthermore,less
    Waterresourcesaroundtheworldfaceincreasingpres-
    suresfrompopulationgrowth,competingdemands
    fromagricultureandindustry,andclimateuncertainty.
    However,anumberofsolutionshavebeendevelopedto
    addressthischallenge,andhavebeendemonstratedto
    beefectiveinseveralpartsoftheworld.Watermanagers
    mustbeawareofthesesolutionsandbeabletomodify
    andapplythemasnecessarytosuittheirneeds.Thisre-
    quiresinformationtobemanagedefectivelysothatit
    iseasilyavailablewhenrequired.Italsorequirescapac-
    ity-buildingtobuildcondenceintheholisticapproach
    towaterresourcemanagementthatisinherenttothe
    methodology.
    TheSustainableSanitationandWaterManagement
    (SSWM)toolboxisacollectionofopen-source,easy-
    accessandeasy-to-useinformationthatisavailableon
    line.Itallowsuserstotailorittotheirownneedswhile
    maintainingaholisticapproach.Themethodologyconsid-
    ersthewatersystemasawholeandfocusesonhuman
    interactionswithvariouscomponentsaswatermovesin
    acyclefromsourcetoseaandback.Inpractice,simple
    technicalandsoftwaretoolsandapproachesarepro-
    posedforthevariousproblemsassociatedwiththeef-
    fectsofhumaninuenceonthewatercycle.Inparticular,
    themethodologylinkswaterresourcesmanagementwith
    sanitationandagriculture.
    Source: SSWM Toolbox (n.d.).
    BOX 17.5
    TheSustainableSanitationandWaterManagement
    Toolbox
    WWDR4 437 HUMANSETTLEMENTS
    thanhalfoftheinvestmentmadeinwaterandsanita-
    tionbyexternalsupportagenciesgoestolowincome
    countries,andonlyasmallproportionofthisgoesto
    providingthosebasicserviceswhichcouldmakemajor
    contributionstotheachievementoftheMDGs(WHO
    andUN-Water,2010).Therefore,thereisaclearneed
    foraidagenciestomakegreaterinvestmentsinwater
    andsanitation,particularlyinlowincomecountries
    wherethenumberofurbanpoorcontinuestoincrease
    rapidly.
    Aswellasfreshcapitalexpenditure,thewatersectoralso
    requiresfundingfortheproperoperationandmainte-
    nanceofexistingsystems.InNepal,forexample,accord-
    ingtogovernmentestimates,80%ofthepopulationhave
    accesstodrinkingwaterfromimprovedsourceswhich
    meansthat,onpaper,thecountryhasmetitsMDGtar-
    getof73%watersupplycoverage.However,government
    dataalsoshowthatonly17.9%ofthewatersupplysys-
    temsinthecountryarefunctioningproperly;38.9%need
    minorrepairs,11.8%needmajorrepairs,21%needrehabil-
    itation,9.1%needreconstructionand1.6%aretotallynon-
    functional(NMIPandDWSS,2011).EveninKathmandu
    Valley,wherecoverageisreportedtobecloseto100%,
    actualservicelevelsfailtomeethalfthewaterdemand
    andthequalityofthewatersuppliedisamajorconcern.
    Therefore,eveniftheworldisontracktomeettheMDG
    forwatersupply,theoperationandmaintenanceofwater
    systemswillcontinuetorequirenancing.
    17.5.1Bridgingthenancinggap
    ApreliminaryassessmentbytheUNMillenniumProject
    (2005)showsthat,takingalltheMDGsasawhole,
    manylowincomecountries,particularlyinsub-Saharan
    Africa,facelargenancialgapsamountingto20%to
    30%ofGDP.Thisisthecaseevenwhendomesticre-
    sourcemobilizationismaximized.Consequently,these
    countrieswillrequiresubstantialexternalnancialsup-
    porttomeettheMDGs,bothnationwideandinsmaller
    urbancentres.Optionsforbridgingthisgapforwater
    supplyandsanitationareasfollows:
    Inthepoorestcountries,externalnanceandODA
    shouldbegrantbased,especiallyfordeliverytothose
    whohavenowaterandsanitationserviceandwholive
    belowthepovertylineinsmallurbancentres.
    Inalllowincomecountries,andwhereappropriate,
    substantialsharesofoperatingcostsinurbancen-
    tresshouldbemetthroughgrantsorotherinstru-
    mentslikeoutput-basedaid.
    Inmiddleincomecountries,smallurbancentres
    wherepeoplelivebelowthepovertylinemayneed
    avarietyofinstruments,includinglifelinetarifs
    (suchasthoseusedinSouthAfrica),output-based
    loansbuttressedbytheappropriateformsofexter-
    nalguarantees,andinternaltransferstomeetthe
    upfrontcostsofnewinfrastructure,andultimately
    makechargesafordabletothepoor.
    Domesticresourcemobilizationshouldbemaxi-
    mizedwhileensuringthatcapitalandoperating
    costsareadequatelyfunded,keepinginmindthe
    needtoprovidethepoor,particularlypoorwomen,
    withsustainableandafordableservices.
    Ensurethatconsiderationsofafordabilityarerec-
    onciledwiththeneedtogeneraterevenuesfrom
    thosethatcanafordtopayforservices.
    Whereverfeasible,trunkinfrastructureshouldbe
    fundedbythepublicsector.

    Meanwhile,atnationallevel,strategiesmustbede-
    velopedtoenableashiftfromexternaltodomestic
    sourcesofnancing,includingtheprivatesector.At
    internationallevel,thereshouldbeashiftfromsov-
    ereigntosub-sovereignlending,andmeasuressuch
    asimprovednancialandoperationalmanagement
    shouldbeputinplacetoimproveafordability,and
    costrecovery.Measuresarealsoneededtoimprove
    theperformanceandcreditworthinessoflocalauthori-
    tiesandutilities.
    Allthoseinvolvedmustrecognizetheurgentneed
    tostrengthenthosenancialmechanismsthatre-
    duceoverheadcosts,andensurethatmoretargeted
    fundsbenetdeprivedcommunities.Suchmecha-
    nismsshouldalsoempowerthecommunities,familiar-
    izingthemwiththechallengesinvolved,andsecuring
    theircommitmenttothesearchforcommonsolu-
    tions.Thesenancialmechanismsshouldalsobuild
    nationalandinternationalpartnershipswithappropri-
    atenancialinstitutions,inaneforttoleveragecapital
    expenditure.

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    FAOandIFAD

    LeadAuthorsKarenFrenkenandRudolphCleveringa
    ContributingAuthorsMelvynKayandMarishaWojciechowska
    AcknowledgementsReviewers:JacobBurke(FAO),DavidCoates(CBD),Theodor
    Friedrich(FAO),M.Gopalakrishnan(ICID),AmirKassam(UniversityofReading,UK),
    Willem-JanLaan(Unilever),LifengLi(WWF),JanLundqvist(SIWI),DavidMolden(IWMI),
    DanielRenault(FAO),AntonioRota(IFAD),PasqualeSteduto(FAO),OlafThieme(FAO),
    DavidTickner(WWF),Olcaynver(WWAP)andRichardConnor(WWAP)
    CHAPTER 18
    Managing water along the livestock
    value chain
    Photoshare/GauravGaur

    Agriculture is a valid and essential consumer of water. Water is a limited resource, and
    agriculture already accounts for 70% of water withdrawn by all three sectors (i.e. the
    agricultural, municipal and industrial), and for 90% of water consumed by these three sectors.
    Responsible agricultural water management will make a major contribution to future global
    water security.
    Water is the key to food security. Globally there is enough water available for future needs,
    but access is uneven. Many areas of absolute water scarcity are home to the worlds poor.
    Major changes in policy and management will be needed to make best use of available water
    resources.
    Most least developed countries (LCDs) experience highly variable climates, which add to
    the uncertainties facing farmers. Climate change will make matters worse. Investment in
    infrastructure and strong institutions will be essential to introduce measurement and control.
    Water has a vital role in all links along the agricultural value chain from production to
    transformation, consumption, waste and reuse. The growing demand for water for livestock
    products highlights this.
    We need to be more water smart. We all have a responsibility to use this scarce resource
    wisely, efciently, and productively.
    18.1Water:Akeyroleinagriculture
    Thelinkbetweenwaterandfoodissimple.Cropsand
    livestockneedwatertogrow,andlotsofit.Producing1
    kgofrice,forexample,requiresabout3,500Lofwater,
    1kgofbeefrequiressome15,000L,andacupofcofee
    requiresabout140L(HoekstraandChapagain,2008).
    TheaverageEuropeandietrequiresabout3,500Lper
    personperday,andanadditional25Lfordrinkingand
    another145orsolitresforcooking,cleaning,washing,
    andushing.Somedietsrequireevenmorewater,for
    example,ameat-richdietcanrequireover5,500Lper
    personperday.Butallthisisinstarkcontrasttothe1.4
    billionpeoplelivinginLDCsinextremepoverty(FAO,
    2011e;IFAD,2011)(Figure18.1).
    1
    Despitethehistoricshift
    towardsurbanizationandthefactthaturbanpoverty
    isincreasingrapidly,povertystilllargelyremainsarural
    problem.Over1billionpeoplerelyonagriculturetose-
    curetheirfoodandlivelihoodsontheequivalentofless
    than1,000Lofwaterperpersonperday.
    18.1.1Waterandfoodsecurity
    Foodinsecurityisagrowingconcernallovertheworld.
    However,thereistoolittlerecognitionthatalmost70%
    oftheworldsfreshwaterwithdrawalsarealreadycom-
    mittedtoirrigatedagriculture(Figure18.2and
    Table18.1,seeTable18.2forcountrygroupings)and
    thatmorewaterwillbeneededasthedemandfor
    FIGURE 18.1
    Millionsofruralpeoplelivinginextremepoverty
    (lessthanUS$1.25perday)byregion
    Source: IFAD (2011, g. 4, p. 49).
    FIGURE 18.2
    Waterwithdrawalbysectorbyregion(2005)
    Source: FAO (2011c).
    600
    500
    400
    300
    200
    100
    0
    Closest
    1988
    EastAsia
    Closest
    1998
    Closest
    2008
    SouthAsia
    South-EastAsia
    Sub-SaharanAfrica
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
    MiddleEastandNorthAfrica
    People[millions]
    100
    90
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    0
    Agricultural Industrial Municipal
    L
    e
    a
    s
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    Waterwithdrawalbysector(%)
    CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 442 CHAPTER18
    WWDR4 443 MANAGINGWATERALONGTHELIVESTOCKVALUECHAIN
    foodgrows.Agriculturalwaterwithdrawalaccounts
    for44%oftotalwaterwithdrawalinOrganizationfor
    EconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)
    countries,butthisrisestomorethan60%withinthe
    eightOECDcountriesthatrelyheavilyonirrigated
    agriculture.IntheBRICcountries(Brazil,Russian
    Federation,IndiaandChina),agricultureaccountsfor
    74%ofwaterwithdrawals,butthisrangesfromalow
    20%intheRussianFederationto87%inIndia.InLDCs
    thegureismorethan90%(FAO,2011c).
    Theagriculturalsectorasawholehasalargewater
    footprintwhencomparedtoothersectors,particularly
    duringtheproductionphase(Table18.3).Thebooming
    demandforlivestockproductsinparticularisincreas-
    ingthedemandforwaterateverystagealongthe
    livestockvaluechain,notjustduringproduction(see
    Section18.5).Itisalsoafectingwaterquality,whichin
    turnreducesavailability.
    Althoughagricultureusessubstantialvolumesofwater,
    itistimetoacknowledgethatisalsoavalidandessen-
    tialuser.Inmanycountries,notjustintheLDCs,water
    availabilityforagricultureisalreadylimitedanduncer-
    tain,andthisissettoworsen.Severalregionsareal-
    readyfacingabsolutewaterscarcity,whererenewable
    TABLE 18.1
    Waterwithdrawalbysectorandfreshwaterwithdrawalbyregion(2005)
    * Includes use of desalinated water.
    ** IRWR, internal renewable water resources (see Table 18.4).
    Source: FAO (2011c).
    Continent Total withdrawal by sector
    Total water
    withdrawalw*
    Total
    freshwater
    withdrawal
    Freshwater
    withdrawal
    as % of
    IRWR** Regions
    Municipal Industrial Agricultural
    km
    3
    /year % km
    3
    /year % km
    3
    /year % km
    3
    /year km
    3
    /year
    Africa 28 12.5 11 5.1 184 82.4 224 224 5.7
    Northern Africa 9 10.0 6 6.0 80 84.0 95 95 202.2
    Sub-Saharan Africa 19 1.4 6 4.5 105 81.1 129 129 3.3
    Americas 135 16.9 285 35.5 381 47.6 801 801 4.2
    Northern America 86 14.2 260 43.0 259 42.9 604 604 9.9
    Central America and Caribbean 7 27.6 4 14.1 15 58.3 26 26 3.3
    Southern America (incl. Brazil) 42 24.8 22 12.6 107 62.6 171 171 1.4
    Asia 227 9.0 242 9.6 2 057 81.4 2 526 2 521 21.5
    Western Asia 25 9.4 20 7.2 227 83.4 272 269 55.5
    Central Asia 6 3.6 8 4.9 150 91.5 164 163 61.8
    South Asia (incl. India) 70 7.0 20 2.0 913 91.0 1 004 1 004 56.9
    East Asia (incl. China) 93 13.7 149 22.0 436 64.4 677 677 19.9
    South-East Asia 33 8.1 46 11.2 330 80.8 409 409 7.1
    Europe 72 19.8 191 52.5 101 27.7 364 364 5.5
    Western and Central Europe 52 21.0 131 52.5 66 26.6 250 249 11.8
    Eastern Europe (incl. Russian Fed.) 20 17.2 60 52.6 35 30.2 115 115 2.6
    Oceania 5 16.7 3 9.5 20 73.8 27 27 3.1
    Australia and New Zealand 5 16.6 3 9.5 20 73.9 27 27 3.3
    Pacic Islands 0.03 29.8 0.01 11.3 0.05 58.9 0.08 0.08 0.1
    World 467 11.8 732 18.6 2 743 69.9 3 942 3 936 9.3
    Least Developed Countries 15 7.3 4 1.8 186 90.9 205 205 4.4
    CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 444 CHAPTER18
    TABLE 18.2
    Countrygroupings
    Africa
    Northern Africa
    Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia
    Sub-Saharan Africa
    Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo,
    Cte dIvoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea,
    Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria,
    Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Togo, Uganda,
    United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe
    Americas
    Northern America
    Canada, Mexico, United States of America
    Central America and Caribbean
    Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Grenada,
    Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the
    Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago
    Southern America
    Argentina, Bolivia (Plurinational State of), Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana (France), Guyana, Paraguay, Peru,
    Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)
    Asia
    Western Asia
    Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Georgia, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Occupied Palestinian
    Territory, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen
    Central Asia
    Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
    South Asia
    Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka
    East Asia
    China, Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea, Japan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea
    South-East Asia
    Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea,
    Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Viet Nam
    Europe
    Western and Central Europe
    Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Faroe
    Islands, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Holy See, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta,
    Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden,
    Switzerland, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, United Kingdom
    Eastern Europe and Russian Federation
    Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation, Ukraine
    Oceania
    Australia and New Zealand
    Australia, New Zealand
    Pacic Islands
    Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Micronesia (Federated States of), Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu
    WWDR4 445 MANAGINGWATERALONGTHELIVESTOCKVALUECHAIN
    Table 18.2 (continued from previous page)
    waterresourcesarebelow500m
    3
    perpersonperyear,or
    arefacingchronicwatershortage(5001,000m
    3
    )orwa-
    terstress(1,0001,700m
    3
    )(Figure18.3and
    Table18.4)(FAO,2011c).By2030fooddemandispre-
    dictedtoincreaseby50%(70%by2050)(Bruinsma,
    2009)andenergydemandfromhydropowerandother
    renewableenergyresourceswillriseby60%(WWAP,
    2009).Theseissuesareinterconnectedincreasing
    agriculturaloutputforexample,willsubstantiallyin-
    creasebothwaterandenergyconsumption,leadingto
    increasedcompetitionforwaterbetweenthedifer-
    entwaterusingsectors.Themainchallengefacingthe
    agriculturalsectorisnotsomuchgrowing70%more
    foodin40years,butmaking70%morefoodavailable
    ontheplate.Reducinglossesinstorageandalongthe
    valuechainmaygoalongwaytowardsofsettingthe
    needformoreproduction.
    Despitethesechallenges,therearemanyreasonsfor
    optimism.Theworldspopulationhasalreadyshown
    howresilientitcanbe.Thelargeirrigationschemes
    builtinthelatenineteenthandearlytwentiethcen-
    turiesintheIndusvalleyfedmanymillionsofpeople
    whowouldhaveotherwisestarved.Inthesecondhalf
    ofthetwentiethcenturyworldfoodproductionmore
    thandoubledinresponsetoadoublingofthepopu-
    lation.Agriculturalproductivityrosesteadilyandirri-
    gatedagriculturewasanimportantpartofthissuccess
    story.Thegreenrevolutioninthe1960sand1970s
    liftedAsiaoutofanimminenthungercrisisalthough
    thepricewasheavyintermsofwateruse,energycon-
    sumptionandenvironmentaldegradation.
    Inthe1990stheimportanceofwaterecosystemser-
    vicesbecamebetterrecognized,asdidtheneedfora
    OECD countries
    Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary,
    Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Republic of
    Korea, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States of America
    BRIC countries
    Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China
    Least developed countries (LDCs)
    Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros,
    Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Kiribati,
    Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Myanmar,
    Nepal, Niger, Rwanda, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Sudan, Timor-Leste,
    Togo, Tuvalu, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Vanuatu, Yemen, Zambia
    TABLE 18.3
    Relativewaterfootprintsofvariousindustry
    sectors
    Note: Water drops indicate the value chain segments that have
    relatively high blue, green and grey water footprint intensities.
    The water footprint is an indicator of water use that looks at both
    direct and indirect water use of a consumer or producer. The water
    footprint of an individual, community or business is dened as the
    total volume of freshwater that is used to produce the goods and
    services consumed by the individual or community or produced by
    the business.
    Source: Morrison et al. (2009, p. 20).
    Raw
    material
    production Suppliers
    Direct
    operations
    Product
    use/end
    of life
    Apparel

    High-tech/
    Electronics
    Beverage

    Food

    Biotech/
    Pharma
    Forest
    products

    Metals/Mining

    Electric
    power/
    Energy

    CHAPTER18 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 446
    FIGURE 18.3
    Renewablewaterresourcesperpersonin2008
    Source: FAO (2011c).
    35,000
    30,000
    25,000
    20,000
    15,000
    10,000
    5,000
    0
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    perperson
    balancebetweenwaterforfood,people,industryand
    theenvironment.Theresponsetothiswasagreen-
    greenrevolutionfoundedontheprinciplesofenviron-
    mentalsustainability(Conway,1997).Thisrevolution
    supportedthedevelopmentofgreeninfrastruc-
    turesuchasimprovingthehealthofriversandtheir
    catchmentstolterpollutants,mitigateoodsand
    droughts,rechargegroundwaterandmaintainsher-
    ies.Technologiesthatmaintainandenhancesuchser-
    vicesalsobuildresilienceintowaterdeliverysystems
    forpeopleandforagriculture.
    Althoughhighfoodpricesmaynotbepopular,there
    arebenets.Forpoorfarmershigherfoodpricescan
    meanincreasedfarmincomes(providedtheyactually
    receiveaportionofthepriceincrease)andforothers
    theyfocusattentiononfoodlossesandwastage.In
    LDCsasmuchashalfofcropsproducedarelostpost-
    harvestwhileinOECDcountriesasmuchas40%of
    foodiswastedalongthevaluechainandbyconsum-
    ers.Reducingthesehighlosseswouldnotonlyreduce
    thedemandtoproducemorecropsatthefarmgate
    by2050butalsosignicantlyreducethedemandon
    waterresourcesrequiredtogrowthem.
    Manycountriesstillhavealarge,untappedendowment
    ofrainfallthatcanbeharnessedusingconservation
    farmingpractices,andsupplementaryirrigationhasa
    signicantroletoplayinthoseareaswherethereare
    sufcientwaterresources.
    18.1.2Agriculturesimpactonwater
    Landusechangesasaresultofagriculturehavepro-
    ducedawiderangeofimpactsonwaterquantityand
    quality(Scanlonetal.,2007).Wetlandsinparticu-
    larhavebeenafected.Poorwaterqualityoriginating
    fromagriculturalpollutionismostsevereinwetlands
    inEurope,LatinAmericaandAsia(Figure18.4).The
    statusofspeciesinfreshwaterandcoastalwetlands
    hasbeendeterioratingfasterthanthoseofothereco-
    systems(MEA,2005a).
    Thewaythatwaterismanagedinagriculturehas
    causedwide-scalechangesinecosystemsand
    WWDR4 447 MANAGINGWATERALONGTHELIVESTOCKVALUECHAIN
    TABLE 18.4
    Precipitationandrenewablefreshwaterresourcesbyregion
    Source: FAO (2011c).
    Continent Precipitation Internal renewable freshwater resources
    Regions
    Depth
    (mm/year)
    Volume
    (km
    3
    /year)
    Volume
    (km
    3
    /year)
    % of worlds
    freshwater resources
    Per capita in
    year 2008 (m
    3
    )
    Africa 678 20 359 3 931 9.3 4 007
    Northern Africa 96 550 47 0.1 286
    Sub-Saharan Africa 815 19 809 3 884 9.2 4 754
    Americas 1 088 43 887 19 238 45.4 20 927
    Northern America 637 13 869 6 077 14.4 13 401
    Central America and Caribbean 2 012 1 510 781 1.8 9 654
    Southern America (incl. Brazil) 1 602 28 507 12 380 29.2 32 165
    Asia 827 26 826 11 708 27.7 2 870
    Western Asia 217 1 423 484 1.1 1 632
    Central Asia 273 1 270 263 0.6 3 020
    South Asia (incl. India) 1 062 4 755 1 765 4.2 1 125
    East Asia (incl. China) 634 7 453 3 410 8.1 2 204
    South-East Asia 2 405 11 925 5 786 13.7 9 957
    Europe 544 12 507 6 569 15.5 9 102
    Western and Central Europe 827 4 045 2 120 5.0 4 123
    Eastern Europe (incl. Russian Fed.) 467 8 462 4 449 10.5 21 430
    Oceania 586 4 733 892 2.1 33 469
    Australia and New Zealand 574 4 598 819 1.9 32 366
    Pacic Islands 2 062 135 73 0.2 54 059
    World 809 108 312 42 338 100.0 6 292
    underminedtheprovisionofawiderangeofecosys-
    temservices.Watermanagementforagriculturehas
    changedthephysicalandchemicalcharacteristicsof
    freshwaterandcoastalwetlandsandthequalityand
    quantityofwater,aswellasdirectandindirectbiologi-
    calchangesinterrestrialecosystems.Theexternalcost
    ofthedamagetopeopleandecosystemsandclean-up
    processesfromtheagriculturalsectorissignicant.In
    theUnitedStatesofAmerica(USA)forinstancethe
    estimatedcostisUS$920billionperyear(citedin
    Gallowayetal.,2007).
    Difusepollutionfromagriculturallandcontinuesto
    beofcriticalconcernthroughoutmanyoftheworlds
    riverbasins.Eutrophicationfromagriculturalrunof
    ranksamongthetoppollutionproblemsintheUSA,
    Canada,AsiaandthePacic.Australia,India,Pakistan
    andmanypartsofthearidMiddleEastfaceincreas-
    ingsalinizationasaresultofpoorirrigationpractices
    (MEA,2005b).Nitrateisthemostcommonchemical
    contaminantintheworldsaquifersandmeannitrate
    levelshaveincreasedbyabout36%inglobalwater-
    wayssince1990.AccordingtodataavailableinFAO
    (2011d),theUSAiscurrentlythecountryconsuming
    thelargestamountsofpesticides,followedbycoun-
    triesinEurope,especiallythoseofWesternEurope.In
    termsofuseperunitofcultivatedarea,Japanisthe
    mostintensiveuserofpesticides.Over-abstraction
    ofrenewablegroundwaterresourcesandabstraction
    offossilgroundwaterreservesinaridNorthernAfrica
    andtheArabianPeninsula,drivenprimarilybythe
    agriculturalsector,isputtingirreconcilablepressures
    onwaterresources.
    CHAPTER18 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 448
    FIGURE 18.4
    Wetlandswaterqualitystatechangesbycontinent
    Source: FAO (2008b, p. 50).
    In2005,globalconversionofforests(primarilytoag-
    riculturalland)wasestimatedtobeabout13millionha
    peryear,andtheselandcoverchangesalsoaccount
    for20%ofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions(Bellarby
    etal.,2008).SouthandSouth-EastAsiaandSouthern
    andCentralAmericahavethehighestnetcarbonux
    totheatmosphere(Houghton,2008).Suchlandcover
    changescanincreaserunof,increasesedimentand
    nutrientows,increaseoods,reducegroundwaterre-
    charge,andreducebiodiversity.
    Almost12%ofthegloballandcoverisnowundercul-
    tivationwithcroplandcoveringmorethan50%ofthe
    landincountriessuchasIndiaandBangladesh,and
    morethan30%inlargepartsofEurope(Table18.6)
    (FAO,2011d).
    Between1961and2008,thecultivatedareaincreased
    by12%,from1,368millionhato1,527millionha,andit
    isallattributabletoanetincreaseinirrigatedcropping
    (Table18.5).
    However,therearealsomanywaysinwhichagricul-
    turecanmitigatethesepollutionanddegradation
    problems.Forexample:
    theirrigatedareacanbeexpandedsomewhat,but
    itismoreimportanttoincreasetheyield,increase
    croppingintensitiesandimproveproductionsys-
    tems,suchasthesystemofriceintensication;
    therainfedagricultureareacanalsobesomewhat
    expandedbutagainitismoreimportanttoincrease
    productivityandimprovefarmingsystemsusing
    sustainablecropproductionintensicationtechnol-
    ogies,suchasconservationagriculture,integrated
    pestmanagementandintegratedplantnutrition
    management;
    reducepost-harvest,transformation,andconsump-
    tionlosses(seeSection18.5).
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    0
    %
    Africa Asia Europe Neotropics NorthAmerica Oceania
    Eutrophication
    Averageeutrophicationandquality Averageagriculturalpollution
    Agriculturalpollution Waterqualitylowered
    TABLE 18.5
    Netchangesinmajorlanduse(millionha)
    Sources: FAO (2011c, 2011d).
    1961 2008
    Net
    increase
    Cultivated land 1 368 1 527 12%
    Rainfed 1 229 1 223 0.5%
    Irrigated 139 304 119%
    WWDR4 449 MANAGINGWATERALONGTHELIVESTOCKVALUECHAIN
    upinthesea;forestry,grazinglands,sheries,andbio-
    diversityconsume57%;ourtowns,cities,andindustry
    consumejust0.1%(110km
    3
    );whileagriculture,includ-
    ingbothrainfedandirrigatedcropping,consumes
    7%(7,130km
    3
    )(ComprehensiveAssessmentofWater
    ManagementinAgriculture,2007),ofwhichonly990
    km
    3
    peryearisconsumedintheOECDcountries.
    Theannualglobalagriculturalwaterconsumptionin-
    cludescropwaterconsumptionforfood,breandfeed
    production(transpiration)plusevaporationlossesfrom
    TABLE 18.6
    Population,areasandgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)byregion
    Continent Population Area GDP
    Regions
    Total
    (2008) Density
    % of
    economic-
    ally active
    population
    active in
    agriculture
    Total area
    of the
    country
    Total
    area
    as % of
    world
    area
    Culti-
    vated
    (2008)
    Area
    cultivated
    per person
    economic-
    ally active in
    agriculture
    Per
    capita
    (2008)
    Value
    added
    by agri-
    culture
    1000 inh inh/
    km
    2
    1000 ha % % ha US$/
    capita
    %
    Africa 981 043 33 54 3 004 590 22 8 1.2 1 592 16
    Northern Africa 163 969 29 24 575 289 4 5 2.0 3 434 11
    Sub-Saharan Africa 817 074 34 59 2 429 301 18 9 1.2 1 222 18
    Americas 919 269 23 10 4 032 189 30 10 8.8 21 657 2
    Northern America 453 480 21 5 2 178 056 16 12 23.1 36 805 1
    Central America and Caribbean 80 900 108 24 75 069 1 20 1.9 3 820 7
    Southern America (incl. Brazil) 384 889 22 14 1 779 064 13 7 4.9 7 574 7
    Asia 4 079 924 126 52 3 242 111 24 17 0.5 3 805 8
    Western Asia 296 556 45 21 656 650 5 10 2.9 8 242 6
    Central Asia 87 214 19 31 465 513 3 8 3.5 2 272 12
    South Asia (incl. India) 1 568 227 350 53 447 884 3 46 0.6 970 18
    East Asia (incl. China) 1 546 824 132 56 1 176 232 9 11 0.3 6 413 6
    South-East Asia 581 103 117 48 495 832 4 20 0.7 2 481 12
    Europe 721 700 31 6 2 300 705 17 13 12.8 29 026 2
    Western and Central Europe 514 081 105 5 488 872 4 26 9.7 36 777 2
    Eastern Europe (incl. Russian Fed.) 207 619 11 9 1 811 833 14 9 16.8 9 434 5
    Oceania 26 659 3 7 807 440 6 6 45.8 41 975 4
    Australia and New Zealand 25 304 3 5 800 893 6 6 71.6 45 286 4
    Pacic Islands 1 355 21 41 6 547 0 10 1.7 2 847 16
    World 6 728 595 50 41 13 387 035 100 11 1.2 8 813 4
    Least Developed Countries 816 782 39 66 2 079 489 16 8 0.7 616 24
    Source: FAO (2011c, with data from UN Population Division, FAOSTAT and World Bank World Development Indicators).
    18.2Managingwaterresourcesinagriculture
    Dowehaveenoughwater(andland)andhuman
    capacitytoproducethefoodforagrowingpopula-
    tionoverthenext50years?Thesimpleanswerisyes,
    thereisenoughbutonlyifweactnowtoimprovewa-
    teruseinagriculture(ComprehensiveAssessmentof
    WaterManagementinAgriculture,2007).
    Onlyasmallpercentageoftheworldsfreshwateris
    readilyavailableforustouse.Ofthe110,000km
    3
    of
    rainfallingannuallyontheearthssurface,36%ends
    CHAPTER18 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 450
    thesoilandfromopenwaterassociatedwithagriculture
    suchasriceelds,irrigationcanalsandreservoirs.Only
    about20%ofthetotal7,130km
    3
    ofagriculturesannual
    waterconsumptionisbluewaterthatiswaterfromriv-
    ers,streams,lakesandgroundwaterforirrigationpurpos-
    es.Althoughirrigationisonlyamodestpartofagricultur-
    alwaterconsumption,itplaysacrucialrole,accounting
    formorethan40%oftheworldsproductiononlessthan
    20%ofthecultivatedland.
    However,globalwaterresourceassessmentshidethe
    largediferencesinwateravailabilityacrosstheworld.
    Someregions,suchasthemorenorthernlatitudesand
    thewettropics,havemorethanenoughwater,where-
    asthedriersemi-aridandaridregionshavetoolittle.
    Unlikeotherresources,watercannotbemovedacross
    continentsinanysignicantquantitiesexceptwhenit
    isembeddedinfoodproducts.
    Predictingfuturewaterdemandforagricultureisfraught
    withuncertainty.Futuredemandforwaterinthissector
    isinpartinuencedbydemandforfood,whichinturn
    dependspartlyonthenumberofpeopleneedingtobe
    fed,andinpartonwhatandhowmuchtheyeat.Thisis
    complicatedby,amongstotherfactors,uncertaintiesin
    seasonalclimaticvariations,efciencyofagriculturepro-
    ductionprocesses,croptypesandyields.
    Theworldpopulationispredictedtogrowfrom6.9bil-
    lionin2010to8.3billionin2030and9.1billionin2050
    TABLE 18.7
    Pressureonwaterresourcesduetoirrigation
    *The water requirement ratio is the ratio between the irrigation requirement and irrigation water withdrawal.
    ** Pressure on water resources due to irrigation is the ratio between irrigation water withdrawal and renewable water resources.
    Sources: Adapted from FAO (2011a) and FAO (2011c).
    Continent
    Regions
    Precipitation
    (mm)
    Renewable
    water resources
    (km
    3
    )
    Water
    requirement
    ratio (%)
    Irrigation water
    withdrawal
    (km
    3
    )
    Pressure on water
    resources due to
    irrigation (%)
    Year 2008 2008 2008
    Africa 678 3 931 48 184 5
    Northern Africa 96 47 69 80 170
    Sub-Saharan Africa 815 3 884 30 105 3
    Americas 1 088 19 238 41 381 2
    Northern America 637 6 077 46 259 4
    Central America and Caribbean 2 012 781 30 15 2
    Southern America 1 602 12 380 28 107 1
    Asia 827 11 708 45 2 057 18
    Western Asia 217 484 47 227 47
    Central Asia 273 263 48 150 57
    South Asia 1 062 1 765 55 913 52
    East Asia 634 3 410 37 436 13
    South-East Asia 2 405 5 786 19 330 6
    Europe 544 6 569 48 101 2
    Western and Central Europe 827 2 120 43 56 3
    Eastern Europe (incl. Russian Fed.) 467 4 449 67 35 1
    Oceania 586 892 41 20 2
    Australia and New Zealand 574 819 41 20 2
    Pacic Islands 2 062 73 - 0.05 -
    World 809 42 338 44 2 743 6
    WWDR4 451 MANAGINGWATERALONGTHELIVESTOCKVALUECHAIN
    (DESA,2009).Butthesegureshidethefactthatthe
    populationinsomecountries,particularlyinsub-
    SaharanAfricaandSouthAsia,willcontinuetogrow
    whileinhighincomecountriesthepopulationwill
    decline.By2050about7.5billionpeoplewillbeliving
    inlowandmiddleincomecountries,with1.5billionin
    sub-SaharanAfricaand2.2billioninSouthAsia.
    Althoughprojectionsvaryconsiderablybasedondif-
    ferentscenarioassumptionsandmethodologies,fu-
    tureglobalagriculturalwaterconsumption(including
    bothrainfedandirrigatedagriculture)isestimatedto
    increasebyabout19%to8,515km
    3
    peryearin2050
    (ComprehensiveAssessmentofWaterManagement
    inAgriculture,2007).TheFoodandAgriculture
    OrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)estimates
    an11%increaseinirrigationwaterconsumptionfrom
    2008to2050.Thisisexpectedtoincreasebyabout
    5%thepresentwaterwithdrawalforirrigationof2,740
    km
    3
    (Table18.7).Althoughthisseemsamodestin-
    crease,muchofitwillbeinregionsalreadysufering
    waterscarcity(FAO,2011a).
    Insemi-aridenvironmentstheamountofrainfallused
    forcroppingisrelativelysmall.Henceintheseareas,
    betteruseofrainfallisneededbyintegratingsoiland
    watermanagementfocusedonsoilfertility,improved
    rainfallinltrationandwaterharvestingtoreduce
    waterlosses,improveyieldsandraisetheoverallwater
    productivityofrainfedsystems.Thestrategyistoget
    morecropperdrop.
    Globally,irrigatedcropyieldsareabout2.7timesthose
    ofrainfedfarming,henceirrigationwillcontinueto
    TABLE 18.8
    Evolutionofareaequippedforirrigation,groundwaterirrigationandpercentageofcultivatedland
    Sources: FAO (2011c), FAO (2011d) and Siebert et al. (2010).
    Continent
    Total area equipped for irrigation
    (1000 ha)
    By groundwater
    Total irrigation as % of
    cultivated land Regions Area % of total
    Year 1970 1990 2008 2008 2008 1970 1990 2008
    Africa 8 429 10 990 13 445 2 506 19 4.6 5.4 5.4
    Northern Africa 4 376 5 131 6 340 2 092 33 18.4 19.2 22.6
    Sub-Saharan Africa 4 053 5 859 7 105 414 6 2.6 3.3 3.2
    Americas 26 609 38 381 44 002 21 548 49 7.2 9.9 11.1
    Northern America 20 004 27 218 31 826 19 147 60 6.7 9.0 12.6
    Central America and Caribbean 932 1 669 1 739 683 39 8.0 12.0 11.5
    Southern America (incl. Brazil) 5 673 9 494 10 437 1 717 16 6.3 8.7 8.2
    Asia 116 031 168 195 222 269 80 582 36 23.3 30.3 41.0
    Western Asia 11 025 19 802 23 347 10 838 46 17.2 30.0 36.3
    Central Asia 7 971 13 366 14 518 1,149 8 15.2 25.9 36.8
    South Asia (incl. India) 45 048 66 856 93 140 48 293 52 22.8 32.7 45.6
    East Asia (incl. China) 42 894 53 299 68 491 19 331 28 38.5 37.4 51.6
    South-East Asia 9 093 14 872 22 773 971 4 12.2 18.8 22.4
    Europe 15 259 25 908 21 856 7 350 34 4.6 8.1 7.5
    Western and Central Europe 10 844 17 635 16 221 6 857 42 7.4 12.7 13.0
    Eastern Europe (incl. Russian Fed.) 4 415 8 273 5 635 493 9 2.4 4.6 3.4
    Oceania 1 588 2 113 2 833 950 34 3.5 4.1 6.2
    Australia and New Zealand 1 587 2 112 2 830 949 34 3.5 4.2 6.3
    Pacic Islands 1 1 3 1.00 33 0.2 0.2 0.5
    World 167 916 245 587 304 405 112 936 37 11.8 16.1 19.9
    CHAPTER18 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 452
    playanimportantroleinfoodproduction.Thearea
    equippedforirrigationincreasedfrom170millionha
    in1970to304millionhain2008(Table18.8).There
    isstillthepotentialforexpansion,particularlyinsub-
    SaharanAfricaandSouthernAmerica,inplaceswhere
    thereissufcientwateravailable.Pathwaystoimprove
    productivityandbridgetheyieldgapinirrigationare:
    increasingthequantity,reliabilityandtimingofwater
    services;increasingthebenecialuseofwaterwith-
    drawnforirrigation;andincreasingagronomicoreco-
    nomicproductivitysothatmoreoutputisobtainedper
    unitofwaterconsumed(FAO,2011a).
    InmostLDCs,newinstitutionalstructureswillbeneed-
    edwhichenablegovernmentstocentralizeresponsibili-
    tiesforwaterregulationyetdecentralizewatermanage-
    mentresponsibilityandincreaseuserownershipand
    participation.Datacollectionandsynthesisforwater
    resourcesplanningwillneedtobestrengthened,and
    sotoowillthecommunicationbetweengovernment
    departmentswhichhaveoverlappingresponsibilitiesfor
    watermanagement.Theneedistotryandachieveinte-
    gratedwaterresourcesmanagement(IWRM).
    Recognizingthelocalnatureofwatermanagement
    willalsobeimportant,aswillbetheneedtosigni-
    cantlyincreasewaterproductivityandadjustwater
    allocationstomeetchangingsocietalhabits(FAO,
    2009a).Theefectivenessofexistingagriculturalwater
    consumptioncanalsobegreatlyimprovedbyreduc-
    ingthesignicantquantitiesofcropslostinpost-har-
    veststoresinLDCsandreducingthelargeamountsof
    foodwastealongthevaluechaininOECDandBRIC
    countries.
    Virtualwatertradingmayalsoplayanincreasingrole
    inthefuture.Thismeansgrowingfoodinwater-rich
    placesandexportingit(withthewaterembedded
    initsproduction)towater-scarcecountries.Thisis
    alreadyhappeningintheMiddleEast,althoughonly
    15%oftheworldsfarmoutputintermsofembedded
    wateristradedinternationally(Allan,2011).However,
    theconceptofvirtualwaterasameansofframing
    economicandtradepolicyisquestionedbysome
    (Wichelns,2010).Oneofthemainconstraintsisthe
    lowpurchasingpowerincountriesfacingthelargest
    growthinfooddemandandthisislikelytoremainso
    fortheforeseeablefuture.Evidencefromtherecent
    riseincommoditypricessuggeststhatcountriesare
    quicktoraiseexporttarifsofstaplecropsassoonas
    nationalfoodsecurityisthreatened.
    18.3Uncertaintiesandriskmanagement
    Therearemanyrisksanduncertaintiesaboutfuture
    wateravailabilityforagriculture,andthesearegreat-
    estinthedroughtpronelowincomecountrieswhose
    GDPisdependentonagriculture.Theeconomicper-
    formanceinmanyLDCsiscloselylinkedtorainfall,but
    therearemanyotherissuesthataddtotherisksand
    uncertaintiescreatedbyclimate.
    18.3.1Anewruralityinleastdevelopedcountries
    MostLDCgovernmentslooktotheirruralcommunities
    toproducemoreagriculturalproductsbutthosesame
    communitiesareimpoverished,theirproductivityislow,
    asistheirresourceuseefciency.Theirburdenismade
    worsebythechangingnatureofrurallifeknownas
    thenewrurality(Rauch,2009).Globalizationistrans-
    formingthemarketplace;newpatternsofpovertyare
    emergingaslivelihoodsadjust;reformsingovernance
    andruralservicesystemsarechangingthenatureof
    institutions.Alltheseissuescreateuncertaintyandrisk
    andarelikelytohaveadisproportionateimpactonthe
    ruralpoorandtheirabilitytoaccessandmakegooduse
    oflimitedwaterresources.
    18.3.2Climatechange
    Agriculturecontributestoclimatechangethroughits
    shareofGHGemissions,whichinturnisafectingthe
    planetswatercycleandaddinganotherlayerofuncer-
    taintiesandriskstofoodproduction.Climatechange
    impactsaremainlyexperiencedthroughthewaterre-
    gimeintheformofmoresevereandfrequentdroughts
    andoods,withanticipatedefectsontheavailability
    ofwaterresourcesthroughchangesinrainfalldistribu-
    tion,soilmoisture,glacierandice/snowmelt,andriver
    andgroundwaterows.Theseclimatechange-induced
    hydrologicalchangesarelikelytoafectboththeextent
    andproductivityofirrigatedandrainfedagriculture
    worldwide,henceadaptationstrategieswillfocuson
    minimizingtheoverallproductionrisk(FAO,2011b).
    Agricultureisthelargestcontributortoglobalnon-CO
    2

    GHGemissions(59%in1990,57%forecastedfor2020)
    (US-EPA,2006).Theagriculturalsectorcontributes
    bothdirectly(methanefromcattleentericfermenta-
    tion,riceproduction,etc.)andindirectly(conversionof
    landtoagriculture,fossilfueluseonfarms,production
    ofagro-chemicals,etc.)toGHGemissions.Thesector
    directlycontributes14%ofglobalannualGHGemis-
    sionsandindirectlycontributesanadditional48%
    (fromforestclearingforrangelandandarabledevelop-
    ment)(FAO,2011b).ThemostcommonGHGsfromthe
    WWDR4 453 MANAGINGWATERALONGTHELIVESTOCKVALUECHAIN
    Agriculturealsooferssignicantmitigationpotential
    whichcanberealizedthroughavarietyofsite-specic
    optionsspanningfrommeasuresandpracticesaimed
    atreducingemissions,enhancingremovals,
    and/oravoiding(ordisplacing)emissions.Estimates
    suggestthatthetotalbiophysicalmitigationpotential
    fromagriculturecouldbe5,5006,000megatonnes
    CO
    2
    -equivalentperyearwhich,iffullyreached,could
    ofsetabout20%oftotalannualCO
    2
    emissions
    (Smithetal.,2008).Specically,cropandgrazing
    landmanagement,restoringthecarboncontentof
    cultivatedorganicsoilsandrestoringdegradedlands
    providethemostsignicantmitigationpotentialsin
    agriculture,followedbyimprovedwaterandrice
    management,landusechanges(i.e.conversionof
    croplandtograssland)andagro-forestry,andim-
    provedlivestockandmanuremanagement
    (Smithetal.,2007)
    Intermsoftheimpacts,oodsanddroughtsarein-
    creasinginincidenceandseverity,andthistrendis
    predictedtocontinueinthefuture.Recentevidence
    FIGURE 18.5
    Sourcesofagriculturalgreenhousegasesexcludinglandusechange
    Source: Bellarby et al. (2008 g. 2, p. 7).
    CO
    2
    +N
    2
    O
    N 0
    2
    +
    N 0
    2
    CH
    4 CH
    4
    CH
    4
    CO
    2
    CH
    4
    +N
    2
    O
    CO
    2
    Methanefrom
    cattleenteric
    fermentation
    Manure
    Nitrousoxide
    fromfertilizedsoils
    Biomass
    burning
    Rice
    production
    Farm
    machinery
    Irrigation
    616
    672
    410
    369
    158
    1792
    413
    2128
    Fertilizer
    production
    agriculturalsectornitrousoxide(N
    2
    O)andmethane
    (CH
    4
    )gasesemanateprimarilyfromagriculturalsoils
    (N
    2
    O)andlivestock(CH
    4
    fromentericfermentation,i.e.
    belching)(Figures18.5and18.6).
    In1990,theOECDcountries,China,theFormerSoviet
    Unioncountries,LatinAmericaandAfricaaccounted
    formorethan80%ofN
    2
    Oemissionsfromagricul-
    turalsoils.By2020,OECDcountriesagriculturalsoil
    emissionsareexpectedtodecreaseandcontribute
    23%ofglobalemissions(comparedto32%in1990).
    Expectedincreasesincropandlivestockproduction
    elsewhereportendthatCentral,SouthandEastAsias
    andEasternEuropesagriculturalsoilemissionswill
    growmorethan50%,andsoilemissionsfromAfrica,
    LatinAmericaandtheMiddleEastwillgrowover100%.
    Globally,CH
    4
    emissionsfromlivestockdigestionare
    forecastedtogrow,andwhilemostOECDcountries
    livestockentericfermentationemissionsareexpect-
    edtodecreasesomewhatoverall(9%),China,Brazil,
    India,USAandPakistanarepredictedtobethetop
    emittersinthiscategoryby2020(US-EPA,2006).
    CHAPTER18 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 454
    forecaststhattheMediterraneanbasinandthesemi-
    aridareasoftheAmericas,Australia,andSouthern
    Africawillexperiencereductionsinriverrunofand
    aquiferrecharge,afectingwateravailabilityinthese
    alreadywater-stressedregions.InAsia,changesin
    runofpatternsfromsnowmeltandhighmountaingla-
    cierswillafectdownstreamdependentirrigatedlands,
    aswellasthehighlypopulatedAsiandeltas,froma
    combinationofreducedinows,increasedsalinityand
    risingsealevels.Worldwide,therisingtemperatures
    willincreasecropwaterdemand(FAO,2011b).
    Climatechangewillalsoafectgroundwaterandthis
    inturnwillafectthevulnerabilityofwomeninmany
    countries.Sincetheburdenofcollectingwaterfor
    householdpurposesoftenfallsonthewomen,low-
    eringgroundwaterlevelsandincreasinglydepleted
    watersourcesresultinwomenhavingtowalklonger
    andlongerdistancestofetchwater,thustakingaway
    timefromagriculturalactivitiesandexposingthem-
    selvestoavarietyofdangers(FAO,2010).
    ItispredictedthatSouthAsiaandSouthernAfrica
    willbethemostvulnerabletoclimatechange-re-
    latedfoodshortagesby2030(Lobelletal.,2008).
    Theirpopulationsarefoodinsecurebecausetheyare
    highlydependentongrowingcropsinecosystems
    thatdisplayhighvulnerabilityandconsequencesto
    climatechangeprojectionsoftemperatureandpre-
    cipitationchanges.
    Asclimatevariabilityhasadirectimpactoncropyields
    mainlyintermsofprecipitation,temperaturein-
    creasesandwateravailabilityadaptivemanagement
    practicesandsystemsneedtobuildinexibilitywhich
    allowsforadaptationintheagriculturalsector.Asa
    result,climatechangeresearchinmostOECDcoun-
    triesforinstancefocusesprimarilyonexaminingthe
    implicationsforagriculturalproduction,suchasfore-
    castchangesinregionalrainfallandwateravailability,
    andonanalysingtheefciencyoffarmpracticesunder
    variousclimatechangescenarios.
    Forwater,optionstoadapttothechangesareacombi-
    nationofimprovedsupplymanagement(adaptingstor-
    agecapacity)anddemandmanagementtoreduce
    groundwateroveruse,promotemoreefcientconjunc-
    tiveuseandraisewaterproductivity(FAO,2011a).
    18.3.3Food,economyandenergycrises
    Thefoodpricecrisis,followedshortlybythe2009eco-
    nomiccrisis,hashadtragicconsequencesforworld
    hunger.Foodpricesaresignicantlyhigherthanthey
    werein2006.Althoughthefactorswhichledtothisin-
    creaseinfoodpricesweresaidtobetemporarysuch
    asdroughtinwheat-producingregions,lowfoodstocks
    andsoaringoilbarrelpricesthatdroveupthepriceof
    fertilizersfoodpricesin2011hadnotyetreturnedto
    theirpre-2006levels.Poorwomenshoulderthebrunt
    ofeconomiccrisesandwomenwithlesseducationtend
    toincreasetheirworkparticipationmoreintimesofcri-
    sisinalmosteveryregionoftheworld(FAO,2009b).
    Thedemandforbiofuelshassoaredinrecentyears.
    SubstantialamountsofmaizeintheUSA,wheatand
    rapeseedintheEuropeanUnion(EU),oilpalminparts
    ofsub-SaharanAfricaandSouthandSouth-EastAsia,
    andsugarinBrazil,arebeingraisedforethanoland
    biodieselproduction.In2007,biofuelproductionwas
    dominatedbytheUSA,Brazil,andtoalesserextent,
    theEU.Biomassandwasterepresented10%ofthe
    worldsprimaryenergydemandin2005,morethan
    nuclear(6%)andhydro(2%)jointly(IEA,2007).
    Ifaprojectedbio-energysupplyof6,00012,000million
    tonnesofoilequivalentweretobereachedin2050,
    thiswouldtakeupone-fthoftheworldsagricultural
    land(IEA,2006).
    2
    Biofuelsarealsowaterintensiveand
    canaddtothestrainonlocalhydrologicalsystemsand
    GHGemissions.Irrigatedbiofuelsalreadyconsumejust
    under2%ofallirrigationwaterwithdrawals(about44
    km
    3
    )(FAO,2008a)(Table18.9).Forinstance,itwas
    FIGURE 18.6
    Totalgreenhousegasemissionsfromthe
    agriculturalsectorbysource
    Source: US-EPA (2006).
    8,000
    7,000
    6,000
    5,000
    4,000
    3,000
    2,000
    1,000
    0
    Emissions(MtCO2eq)
    1990
    Agriculturalsoils Entericfermentation Ricecultivation
    Otheragricultural Manuremanagement
    1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
    Year
    WWDR4 455 MANAGINGWATERALONGTHELIVESTOCKVALUECHAIN
    estimatedthat1litreofethanolproducedintheirrigat-
    edsouth-westernpartofNebraskaintheUSArequires
    about415Lofwater(Varghese,2007).InBrazilwater
    pollutionassociatedwithbiofuelproduction,theap-
    plicationoffertilizersandagro-chemicals,soilerosion,
    andsugarcanewashingproceduresaremajorconcerns.
    18.3.4Landacquisitionsandlandusechanges
    Landuseischangingbecauseoftherisinginternation-
    alphenomenonoflandacquisition,whichwillinturn
    impactonwateruse.Since2007someOECDandBRIC
    countriessovereignfundsandinvestmentcompanies
    haveboughtorleasedlargetractsoffarmlandacross
    Africa,LatinAmericaandAsiainordertosecuretheir
    fuelandfoodrequirements.Thiswastriggeredbythe
    fuelcrisisandthedemandforbiofuelstoreplacepe-
    troleum-basedproducts.
    Althoughthereisstillpotentialtoincreasethecropped
    area,some57millionha(0.6%)offarmlandislostan-
    nuallybecauseofacceleratinglanddegradationandur-
    banization,whichtakesagriculturallandoutofproduc-
    tionandreducesthenumberoffamilyfarmsasmore
    peoplemovetothecities.Increasingpopulationmeans
    thattheamountofcultivatedlandperpersonisdeclin-
    ingsharplyfrom0.4hain1961to0.2hain2005.
    18.3.5Policyandgovernance
    Improvingproductivityofirrigatedagricultureandusing
    lesswatermeanstransferringandadoptingnewertech-
    nologiesandadaptingequipmentandprocessestolocal-
    lyappropriateirrigationpractices.Thisrequiresnancial
    resources,butitalsorequiresgoodpolicyandgovern-
    ance,andthelinksbetweenthemneedtobegivenprior-
    ity.Forinstance,therehavebeennumerousefortstolink
    nationalintegratedwaterresourceandwaterefciency
    planstonationaldevelopmentplansinordertoaccess
    governmentanddonornance(GWP,2009).
    Whilethereareestablishedtoolsandinstrumentsto
    bettermanagewaterassetsforagriculture,thereare
    manyotherseeminglyunrelatedissuesthatunderpin
    theoverallchallengesofwatergovernancesuchas
    fragilestates,corruption,inequitableaccesstowater
    andlandtenurerights.Moreso,agriculturalwateral-
    locationssitwithinincreasinglycompetingsocialeco-
    nomicenvironmentalneedsandprioritiesthatdrive
    overallnationalsecurityanddevelopmentobjec-
    tives,andwhichclimatechange-inducedhydrologi-
    calchangesaresettoexacerbate.Varioussubregional
    initiativeshavesproutedinrecentyearsinabidto
    increasehigh-levelpoliticalattention(henceinvest-
    ments)towatersecurityissues,suchastheAfrican
    MinistersCouncilonWaterandtheAsiaPacicWater
    Forum.Localinstitutionsnonethelessremainthefront-
    lineactorsandhereweakcapacityandfragmentation
    ofwater-relatedinstitutionsremainaskeyconcernsin
    manyregions.
    18.4Anewerainfoodandwater
    management?
    Whenwaterisscarceitisnolongerenoughtojust
    thinkabouttheamountofwaterweneedtogrow
    food(Lundqvistetal.,2008),wemustalsolookat
    thewaywaterisusedalongtheentirevaluechain
    fromproductiontoconsumptionandbeyond
    (Figure18.7).Thisisparticularlytrueforthemorein-
    dustrializedcountries,andalsotosomeextentinthe
    townsandcitiesoftheBRICcountries,wherefood
    increasinglycomesfrommanydiferentsources,often
    TABLE 18.9
    Waterrequirementsforbiofuelcrops
    * On the assumption of 50% irrigation efciency.
    Source: FAO (2008a).
    Crop
    Annual
    obtainable
    fuel yield
    Energy
    yield
    Evapo-
    transpiration
    equivalent
    Potential
    crop evapo-
    transpiration
    Rainfed
    crop evapo-
    transpiration
    Irrigated crop water
    requirement
    (L/ha) (G/ha) (L/litre fuel) (mm/ha) (mm/ha) (mm/ha)* (L/litre fuel)
    Sugar cane 6 000 120 2 000 1 400 1 000 800 1 333
    Maize 3 500 70 1 357 550 400 300 857
    Oil palm 5 500 193 2 364 1 500 1 300 0 0
    Rapeseed 1 200 42 3 333 500 400 0 0
    CHAPTER18 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 456
    overlongdistances,andinsomecasesfrommanydif-
    ferentcountries.Foodsecurityisthreatenedbythe
    potentialforwasteasagriculturalproductsmovealong
    extensivevaluechainsandpassthroughmanyhands
    farmers,transporters,storekeepers,foodprocessors,
    shopkeepersandconsumersasittravelsfromeldto
    fork.Foodcanbewastedateverystepalongthevalue
    chainandthismeansthatthewaterusedtoproduce
    itisalsowasted.Allthisisinsharpcontrasttothepast
    whenmostfoodwasproducedandconsumedlocally,
    whichisstillthecaseinmostLCDs.
    Insomecountriesreducingwateruseisnolonger
    justaboutimprovingwaterproductivityonthefarm.
    Waterisusedforcleaning,preparing,distributingand
    consumingfood.Alltheseprocessespollutethewater
    whichthenrequiresrecyclingpriortodischargeordi-
    lutingtoreducecontamination.
    Watermanagementhastraditionallybeentherespon-
    sibilityofgovernments,butmajorinternationalfood
    companiesarebeginningtorealizetheimportance
    ofwatertotheirbusinesses,particularlywheretheir
    valuechainsareinwater-shortcountries.Although
    theirconcernmayhavemoretodowithcustomer
    perceptionsandsecurityofprots,therearepotential
    knock-onbenetsforeveryoneaswaterismanaged
    withgreatercare.Initiativestopromotemoreefcient
    useofwateralongthevaluechaininclude,forexam-
    ple,theCEOWaterMandateandtheAllianceforWater
    Stewardship.
    Weareclearlyenteringaneweraofwatermanage-
    mentinwhichthelinksbetweenwaterandotherre-
    sourcesandthesocio-economicsofpoorpost-harvest
    management(Box18.1)andfoodwastealongthe
    valuechainareincreasinglyrecognized.
    18.5Waterusealongthelivestockvalue
    chain
    Thelivestockindustry,whichisgrowingrapidly,pro-
    videsagoodillustrationofthechallengestothewa-
    teragriculturesupplychainnexushowwateris
    used,consumedandpollutedalongthevaluechainas
    animalsareproducedonthefarm,transformedinto
    products,consumed,andthewasteproductsrecycled.
    Livestockproductsarealsoanimportantpartofthe
    globaltradeinfoodandsotheindustryalsohigh-
    lightsthegrowingbenetsandconcernsaboutwater
    footprintsandtheexporting/importingofwaterand
    pollutionasmeatanddairyproductsareshippedfrom
    onecountrytoanother.
    Livestockfarmingisoneofthemostimportantsubsec-
    torsinagriculture,bothsociallyandeconomically.Item-
    ploysover1.3billionpeopleacrosstheworld.Itgener-
    ateslivelihoodsforsome1billionoftheworldspoorest
    people.However,livestockfarmingalsocontributesto
    themostseriousenvironmentalproblemslanddegra-
    dation,climatechange,airpollution,waterscarcityand
    pollution,andlossofbiodiversity(FAO,2006b).
    Theworldfoodeconomyisbeingincreasinglydriven
    bytheshiftindietsandfoodconsumptionpatternsto-
    wardslivestockproducts(FAO,2006a).In2008,about
    3,350millionhawereunderpermanentmeadowsand
    pasturemorethantwicetheareaunderarablecrop-
    pingandpermanentcrops.Livestockprovidesnotjust
    meatbutalsodairyproducts,eggs,wool,hides,andso
    on.Thelivestocksectorisnowchangingatanunprec-
    edentedpaceasdemandforfoodderivedfromani-
    malshasboomedintheworldsmostrapidlygrowing
    economies(FAO,2006b).Livestockalreadycontrib-
    utes40%oftheglobalvalueofagriculturaloutput.It
    isoneofthemostdynamicpartsoftheagricultural
    economyandisdrivenbypopulationgrowth,risingaf-
    uence,andurbanization.
    FIGURE 18.7
    Waterusealongthevaluechain,fromproduction
    torecycling
    Itisdistressingtonotethatsomuchtimeisbeingde-
    votedtothecultureoftheplant,somuchmoneyspenton
    irrigation,fertilizationandcropprotectionmeasuresonly
    tobewastedaboutaweekafterharvest(FAO,1981).
    BOX 18.1
    Freshwaterintodilutepollution
    Nutrientandwastewater
    recycling
    Freshwaterin
    Foodwastelifestyleanddiet
    Freshwaterin;
    pointpollutionout
    Rainfed,irrigated,
    postharvest
    losses
    Recycling
    Consumption Transformation
    Production
    WWDR4 457 MANAGINGWATERALONGTHELIVESTOCKVALUECHAIN
    Asthedemandforlivestockproductsgrows,sotoodo
    theconcernsaboutitsimpactontheenvironment.The
    expansionoflandforlivestockhasledtodeforestation
    insomecountries(e.g.Brazil)andintensivelivestock
    production(mainlyinOECDcountries)isalreadyamajor
    sourceofpollution.Livestockcontributeslessthan2%
    ofglobalGDPandyetitproducessome18%ofGHGs
    (FAO,2006b).Hencecriticsarguethatthedisbenets
    faroutweighthebenetsthatcomefromlivestock,but
    othersarguethatthisseriouslyunderestimatestheeco-
    nomicandsocialimportanceoflivestock,particularlyin
    lowincomecountries.Regardlessofthebalanceofthese
    arguments,theincreasingdemandforlivestockseems
    likelytocontinue.Thismeansthatresourceuseefciency
    inlivestockproductionisnowanurgentpriority,andthis
    includesthemanagementofwater.
    18.5.1Howthewaterowsfromeldtofork
    Consideringthisglobalpictureoflivestockproduction
    includingrapidgrowth,theshiftinworldlivestock
    outputfromhighincometolowincomecountries,the
    changingpatternsofinternationaltrade,andthepo-
    tentialforfurthergrowthinthesectorwhatarethe
    implicationsforwaterresources,nowandinthefuture,
    bothintermsofwaterconsumptionandtheindustrys
    impactonwaterthroughpollution?
    Livestock production on the farm
    Alllivestockrequirewaterfordrinking,coolingand
    cleaning,buttheamountofwaterrequireddifersac-
    cordingtotheanimal,themethodofrearingandthe
    location.Extensivelivestocksystemscanincreasewa-
    terdemandbecauseoftheadditionalefortneeded
    asanimalssearchforfeed.Intensiveorindustrialized
    systems,however,requireadditionalservicewaterfor
    coolingandcleaningfacilities.Globally,theannual
    drinkingwaterrequirementforlivestockisabout
    16km
    3
    ,andservicingrequiresanadditional6.5km
    3

    (FAO,2006b).
    Theamountofwaterusedtogrowfeedandfodderis
    muchmoresignicantinvolumeterms.Thisamount
    dependsnotjustonthenumberandkindsofanimals
    andamountoffoodtheyeatbutalsowherethefood
    isgrown.Itisestimatedthatlivestockconsumesabout
    2,0003,000km
    3
    ofwaterannuallyasmuchas
    45%oftheglobalwaterembeddedinfoodproducts
    (ComprehensiveAssessmentofWaterManagementin
    Agriculture,2007;ZimmerandRenault,2003)although
    theseestimatesarequiteimprecise.Whateverthe
    gure,theamountinvolvedinproducinglivestock
    productsissubstantial.Rainfedgrasslandsconsume
    mostofthiswater,whichisgenerallythoughttobe
    oflittleenvironmentalvalue.Someofthemore
    intensivelymanagedgrazinglandsandcerealand
    oilseedcropsgrownforfeedstufsmayhavealterna-
    tiveagriculturalpotentialbuttheyaremostlylocated
    inwaterabundantareas.
    Irrigationwatervolumesaremuchsmallerbuthavean
    importantroleinproducingfeed,fodderandgrazing
    forlivestockandhaveamuchgreateropportunitycost
    thanrainfedcropping.
    3
    Thereisnoglobalestimate
    availablebuttheauthorssuggestthatitcouldbe13%
    ofagriculturalbluewaterconsumption(Table18.10)
    agurewhichcouldriseinthefutureasthedemand
    forlivestockproductsincreases.Thisgureisbasedon
    informationavailableonirrigatedfeed,foddercrops
    andpastureforthetwomainanimalgroupsmo-
    nogastrics(pigsandpoultry)andruminants(beefand
    dairycows,bufalo).
    Pigsandpoultryarepredominantlyrearedininten-
    siveandindustriallybasedproductionsystemsand
    relyonconcentratedfeedstufsmadeupoffour
    importantcropsbarley,maize,wheatandsoy-
    bean(BMWS).Ruminantsaremostlyrearedinex-
    tensiverainfedgrazingsystemsthoughsomerely
    onirrigatedpastureandfodder.InOECDcountries
    TABLE 18.10
    Estimatedglobalannualwaterconsumptionofgrazing,fodderandfeedproductionforlivestock
    Sources:
    a
    CA (2007);
    b
    FAO (2011c).
    Item Net evapotranspiration (km
    3
    per year)
    1 Global water to meet current food demand
    a
    7 130
    2 Rainfed agriculture
    a
    (green water) % of (1) 5 855 (82%)
    3 Irrigated agriculture
    b
    (blue water) % of (1) 1 275 (18%)
    6 Irrigated feed, fodder and grazing
    b
    % of (3) 160 (13%)
    CHAPTER18 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 458
    anincreasingnumberofdairycowsrelyonmanu-
    facturedcompoundfeed,butthepictureofwhat
    percentagesareirrigatedorrainfediscomplex.
    EstimatesarebasedontheFAOsglobalinformation
    systemonwaterandagriculture(AQUASTAT),which
    canbeconsideredasminimumvaluesduetoincom-
    pletenessoftheinformation(FAO,2011c).United
    StatesDepartmentofAgriculture(2008)sources
    suggestthatsome16millionhaofpermanentfodder
    andpastureand16millionhaofannualfodderand
    feedisirrigatedglobally,consumingabout160km
    3

    ofwater.Bringingthesedatatogether,theglobal
    irrigatedevapotranspirationforlivestockisestimated
    tobeabout13%(Table18.10andFigure18.8).
    Transformation
    Theslaughterhouseisthesecondlargestuserofwater
    inthemeatprocessingvaluechain(aftertheproduc-
    tionphase)andapotentiallysignicantpointsource
    ofpollutioninlocalecosystemsandcommunities.The
    sourceofwaterenteringdairiesandabattoirsdepends
    onthelocation.Themostsignicantwater-related
    issueswithregardstoslaughterhouseoperationsare
    theuseoflargeamountsofwater;largequantitiesof
    efuentsandemissionsofhighorganicstrength
    liquidsintothewater;andenergyconsumptionfrom
    refrigerationandwaterheating.
    HygienestandardsinOECDcountriestypicallyre-
    quirelargequantitiesoffreshwaterattheabattoirto
    beusedmainlyforwateringandwashinglivestock,
    cleaningequipmentandworkareas,andforwashing
    carcasses(Figure18.9).Foodsafetyandhygiene
    standardshaveinfactbeentightenedinrecentyears
    followingoccurrencesofSalmonella, Listeria,andthe
    bovinespongiformencephalopathy(BSE,ormad
    cowdisease)crisis.Asaconsequence,cleaningand
    sterilizationoperationsusinghotwaterhavebeenin-
    tensied,mostlikelydrivingupthevolumeofwater
    consumedattheslaughterhouseinmanyOECDcoun-
    tries(EuropeanCommission,2005).Forexample,46%
    ofwaterusedinanItalianpigslaughterhouseisfor
    cleaning,and56%ofwaterusedataDanishpoultry
    slaughterhousekilling25millionbirdsperyearisused
    forwashingcarcassesandchilling.Together,cleaning
    andcarcasswashingcanaccountformorethan80%
    oftotalwateruseandefuentvolumes(European
    Commission,2005).
    Indairies,foodsafetyandhygienestandardsexplain
    thatthebulkofwaterusedisforcleaning,sanitizing
    andpasteurization(Figure18.10).
    Waterusealsovariesaccordingtothetypeofanimals
    beingslaughtered.InDenmarkandNorwaypoultry
    slaughteringrequiresthegreatestwatervolumesand
    generatesthehighestnutrientloadswhencompared
    toslaughteringotheranimals(Table18.11).
    Theoorareaoftheslaughterhousealsoinuences
    wateruse,asdoesthesizeoftheanimals/birdsand
    slaughtermethods,carcassdressingandcooling,and
    automation.
    FIGURE 18.8
    Globalannualwaterconsumptionforlivestockgrazing,fodderandfeedproduction
    Irrigatedfeed,fodder
    andgrazing
    13%
    Greenwateruse
    Pasture
    53%
    Bluewateruse
    Crops
    47%
    Irrigated
    crops
    87%
    Globalnetevapotranspiration7,130km
    3
    Greenwater
    82%
    Bluewater
    18%
    WWDR4 459 MANAGINGWATERALONGTHELIVESTOCKVALUECHAIN
    Meatprocessingefuentscontainblood,fat,manure,
    undigestedstomachcontentsandcleaningdetergents.
    Capitalandresourceintensivewastewatertreatment
    infrastructureisrequiredtotreatsuchefuentswhich,
    ifleftunchecked,willresultinhighbiologicaloxygen
    demand(BOD),suppressionofsensitiveaquaticspe-
    cies,odours,andotherproblems.
    Consumption
    Waterisusedduringtheconsumption
    4
    stageasfood
    passesthroughretailersandispackedandprepared
    foreatingbyfoodprocessingcompaniesandalsoin
    thehome.Thisaddstotheburdenofwaterpollution
    asfoodiswashed,cleanedandprepared.
    Themostseriousaspectoffoodconsumptioninterms
    ofwateruseisfoodwastage.Thisisparticularlythe
    caseinindustrializedcountrieswherefoodiswasted
    becausetoomuchperishablefoodisproducedand
    notsold,productsdeteriorateinstorage,andfoodis
    boughtandnotconsumedandhencethrownaway.All
    thisaddsuptobothasignicantwasteoffoodand
    alsoasignicantwasteofthewaterusedtoproduceit
    (Lundqvist,2010).
    Recycling
    Waterrecyclingisneededateverystageofthevalue
    chain.Attheproductionstage,theincreasingnumbers
    oflivestockherdsaresignicantsourcesofpollution
    (greywater).Livestockfaecesarefarmorepotentin
    nutrientloadingsthanhumanexcreta.Asiagenerates
    about35%ofglobalannuallivestockexcretionofnitro-
    gen(N)andphosphorus(P).PigwasteinThailand,Viet
    NamandGuangdong(China)contributesmoretowater
    pollutionthandomesticwastewater(Table18.12).Inthe
    USAthelivestocksectorisresponsibleforabout55%
    ofsoilerosion,32%ofnitrogenloads,and33%ofpo-
    tassiumloadsintofreshwaterresources.Afurther37%
    ofpesticideuseand50%ofthevolumeofantibiot-
    icsusedcomefromthelivestocksector(FAO,2006b),
    andallcontributetowaterpollution.
    Thegrowthintradeoflivestockproductsisfurther
    transformingmeatproductionandenvironmentalrela-
    tionships.Majormeatimportingcountriesgettheben-
    etofthelandandwateruseandnitrogenemissions
    inthemeatproducingcountries.Pigandchickenmeat
    importsintoJapan,oneoftheworldstopfeedand
    meatimporters,embodythevirtualequivalentof50%
    ofJapanstotalarableland.Furthermore,Japansmeat
    consumption,whileannuallyreleasingsome70,000
    tonnesofnitrogendomestically,isestimatedtoleave
    220,000tonnesofnitrogenbehindinmeatexporting
    countries(Gallowayetal.,2007).Figure18.11illustrates
    Japansnitrogenowinthepigandpoultrytradeand
    showsthatabout1.5timesmorenitrogenlossoccurs
    FIGURE 18.9
    DataforwaterconsumptioninatypicalItalianpig
    slaughterhouse
    FIGURE 18.10
    Typicalwaterusebyamarketmilkprocessorin
    Australia
    Source: European Commission (2005). Source: UNEP (2004, p. 20).
    Cooling
    12%
    Unloadingand
    VehicleWash
    7%
    Lairage
    6%
    Bleeding
    1%
    Slaughter
    1%
    Hide
    Removal
    13%
    Evisceration
    8%
    Splitting
    5%
    Chilling
    1%
    Cleaning
    46%
    Manual
    washing
    6%
    Trade
    waste
    4%
    Other
    3%
    Cleaning
    place
    28%
    Pasteurization
    25%
    Cratewash
    16%
    Operational
    processes
    12%
    Cooling
    towers
    6%
    CHAPTER18 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 460
    intheexportingcountries(mainlytheUSA)thanat
    homeasaresultofitslargemeatimportvolumes.
    Some36%ofthe220,000tonnesofnitrogenisinthe
    formofvirtualnitrogen(nitrogenusedinproduction
    butnotactuallyembeddedinthelivestockproduct).
    Thisimpliesthathighmeatimportingconsumersen-
    joythebenetsoflivestockproductswithoutpaying
    theenvironmentalcostsofnitrogenemissionstolocal
    groundwaterandsurfacewaterandthelocalatmos-
    phere.InBrazil,15%ofthevirtualnitrogenleftbehind
    isduetofeedandmeatexportstoChina(Gallowayet
    al.,2007).
    18.5.2Moreproteinperdrop
    Withanexpectedriseinthedemandforanimalprod-
    uctsandasubsequentincreaseinpressureonfresh-
    waterresources,itisessentialtogetmoreproteinper
    dropofwaterused,particularlyforbluewater.Some
    examplesofhowthiscanbeachievedateachstageof
    thelivestockvaluechainareoutlinedbelow.
    Production:raisingwaterproductivityusingsustain-
    ablecropproductionintensicationtechniquesfor
    managingsoilfertility(increasingcropproductivity
    byincorporatingbothorganicandinorganicplant
    nutrientswhichpreventsoildegradationandreduc-
    esnutrientloss);rainwaterharvestingandstorage.
    Transformation:adoptingcleanerpracticesthataim
    toreducewatervolumesandcaptureandtreatnu-
    trient-richefuents;betterstoragefacilities.
    Consumption:increaseconsumerawarenesscam-
    paignstoreducefoodwastage.
    Recycling:water,nutrientandwasterecycling(in-
    cludingcascadingsystemsreusingtreatedefuents
    foradapted,safeuses)toclosethevaluechainloops.
    Innovativetechnicalresponsesareonlypossiblewithin
    acontextoflocally-adaptedpolicies,institutionsand
    incentivesthatpromoteproductivelandandwa-
    termanagementsolutions,alongwithinvestments,
    andthesteadfastpursuitofscienticresearchand
    development.
    TABLE 18.11
    WateruseandemissiondatainDanishandNorwegianslaughterhouses
    Notes: Biological oxygen demand (BOD) is an indicator of water quality. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) measures the amount of organic
    pollutants in surface water.
    Source: Water-related data extracted from European Commission (2005).
    All values
    per tonne of
    carcass
    Water use,
    wastewater
    (L)
    BOD emission
    (kg)
    COD emission
    (kg)
    Nitrogen
    emission
    (g)
    Phosphorus
    emission
    (g)
    Suspended
    solids emission
    (g)
    Cattle 1 6239 000 1.828 440 1721 840 24.8260 11.215.9
    Pig 1 6008 300 2.1410 3.2210 1802 100 20233 0.125.1
    Sheep 5 5568 333 8.89 1 556 500
    Poultry 5 07067 400 2.4343 441.0 5604 652 26.2700 48700
    TABLE 18.12
    Estimatednitrogenandphosphorousemissionsinwatersystems
    Source: FAO (2004).
    Country/Province Nutrient
    Potential load
    (tonnes)
    Percentage contribution to nutrient emissions in water systems
    Pig waste Domestic wastewater Non-point source
    China-Guangdon N
    P
    530 434
    219 824
    72
    94
    9
    1
    19
    5
    Thailand N
    P
    491 262
    52 795
    14
    61
    9
    16
    77
    23
    Viet Nam N
    P
    442 022
    212 120
    38
    92
    12
    5
    50
    3
    WWDR4 461 MANAGINGWATERALONGTHELIVESTOCKVALUECHAIN
    FIGURE 18.11
    NitrogenassociatedwiththeproductionofpigsandchickensinJapan
    Notes: Bars refer to N left behind in the producing country during diferent stages of production. Green, feed; red, live animal production; blue,
    meat processing. Arrows represent transfer of total N embedded in shipped product. Data are annual values in thousands of tonnes, averaged
    over the years 20002002.
    Source: Galloway et al. (2007, g. 2, p. 625), reproduced with permission from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
    18.6Watersmartfoodproduction
    Someexpertssuggestthatifeveryoneadoptedalife
    stylesimilartothatnormallyexperiencedinOECD
    countriesthenmorethanthreeearthswouldbe
    neededtosatisfytheresourcerequirements.Thisisa
    boldclaimbutitdoesmakethepointthatwecannot
    continuetoconsumenaturalresourcesatthecurrent
    rateifwewishtousethemsustainablyforeveryones
    benetbothnowandinthefuture.
    Waterwillneedtobemanagedsothatsupplyand
    demandisbalancedandsharedacrosssectorsand
    acrossregions.Thismaymeanreducingtheamount
    ofwatercurrentlyconsumedtoproduceareasonable
    andnutritiousdiet.Improvedratioofcropproductivity
    towaterusewillbeneededaswillbetterwaystoman-
    agebothgreenandbluewaterresources.
    18.6.1Theroleoftechnology
    Inhigherincomecountries,scienceandtechnology
    havelongbeenmajordriversofglobalprosperity.This
    willundoubtedlycontinueinthefuture.Foodproduc-
    tionwillneedtobegreenerandmoresustainableso
    thatitdoesnotaddtotheburdenofclimatechange
    andecosystemdeterioration.Wewillneedinnovative
    technologiesthatcanimprovecropyieldsanddrought
    tolerance;producesmarterwaysofusingfertilizerand
    water;improvecropprotectionthroughnewpesticides
    andnon-chemicalapproaches;reducepost-harvest
    losses;andcreatemoresustainablelivestockand
    marineproduction.Industrializedcountriesarewell
    placedtotakeadvantageofthesetechnologies,but
    theymustalsotakeresponsibilitytoensurethatLDCs
    haveopportunitiestoaccessthem.
    18.6.2Humancapacitiesandinstitutionsasassets
    AgriculturaldevelopmentinLDCsismainlyinthe
    handsofsmallholders,mostofwhomarewomen.
    Watertechnologiesappropriatetotheirneedswillplay
    acrucialroleinmeetingthefoodsecuritychallenge.
    However,inmanyLDCs,womenhaveonlylimitedac-
    cesstoawiderangeofphysicalassetsandlackthe
    skillstodeploythem.Multiplewateruseschemescan
    provideopportunitiesforwomentoextendtheirinu-
    enceoverwaterallocationandmanagement.
    Mostindustrializedcountriesarehavethenancialre-
    sources,aswellastheinfrastructure,institutionsand
    6
    15
    18
    99
    105
    10
    10
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    65
    2
    11
    11
    3
    4
    4
    5
    4
    4
    4
    2
    1
    1
    3
    3
    1
    1
    Japan
    Thailand
    EU
    CHAPTER18 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 462
    capacity,tosustainthelevelsofwatersecuritytheynow
    enjoy.However,perhapstheyshouldbeseekingmore
    sustainablewateruseperpersonintheinterestsofother
    lessindustrializedcountries.Incontrast,LDCswillneed
    toseekwaysofincreasingwateravailabilityperperson
    andwhethertheycanafordtoemulatethestrategiesof
    themoreindustrializedcountries.Thereisabalancetobe
    struckbetweenthesetwocontrastingstrategies.
    Majorchangesinpolicyandmanagementwillbeneeded
    tomakebestpossibleuseofavailablewaterresources.
    Newinstitutionalarrangementsareneededwhichcen-
    tralizetheresponsibilityforwaterregulationyetdecen-
    tralizewatermanagementresponsibilityandincrease
    userownershipandparticipation.Newarrangementsare
    requiredforsafeguardingaccesstowaterforpoorand
    disadvantagedgroups,particularlywomen,andensuring
    theyhavelong-termlandandwatersecurity.
    18.6.3Afocusonthevaluechain
    Improvementswillbeneededallalongtheagricultural
    valuechains.Earlygainsincludeopportunitiestore-
    ducepost-harvestcroplossesinLDCsandfoodwast-
    ageinthehigherincomecountries,andhencesaving
    thewaterembeddedinthem.Inthemediumterm,
    innovationsinclimate-smartcroppingarepossible.In
    thelongerterm,energy-smartconversionoffeedand
    fodderforlivestockisalsopossible.Waterrecyclingat
    allstagesofthevaluechainwillhelptosecureenvi-
    ronmentalwaterrequirementswhenreuseoftreated
    waterisnotculturallyacceptableforotheruses.
    Inthehighincomecountries,thefocuswillalsobeon
    waterpollutionwhichreducesfreshwateravailabil-
    ity.Thisincludesreducingdifusepollution(inproduc-
    tion)andpointsourcepollution(intransformationand
    consumption).
    18.6.4Managingriskcreatively
    Reducingvulnerabilitytodroughtwillrequireinvestment
    inbothconstructedandgreeninfrastructuretoimprove
    watermeasurementandcontroland,whereappropri-
    ate,increasesurfacewaterandgroundwaterstoragein
    constructedreservoirsandinnaturalstorage(bothin
    wetlandsandinthesoil).Mostbenetisexpectedto
    comefromexistingwatermanagementtechnologiesand
    adaptingthemtonewsituations.Designformanage-
    ment,promotedinthe1980stoensureinfrastructure
    designtookaccountofwhowouldmanageitandhowit
    wouldbemanaged,isstillhighlyrelevanttodayandim-
    portantforfuturewatermanagement.
    18.6.5Virtualwatertrade
    Virtualwatermayplayanincreasingroleaswater-rich
    countriesexportwaterembeddedinfoodtowater-
    shortcountriesthatnditincreasinglydifculttogrow
    sufcientstaplefoodcrops.Buttheaqua-politicsof
    exporting/importingfoodversusself-sufciencywill
    notbeeasytoresolve;foodproducingcountriesmay
    notwishtoexportcropswhenfoodsecurityisthreat-
    ened;lowerincomeandleastdevelopedcountriesmay
    needtocontinueover-exploitingwaterresourcesto
    feedtheirpopulations.
    18.6.6Implementingwatersmartproduction
    Atwin-trackapproachisneededthatmakesbestuse
    ofavailablewaterdemandmanagementoptions
    thatincreaseproductivity(morecropperdrop)and
    supplymanagementthatmakesmorewateravailable
    throughwaterstoragetocopewithseasonalityandin-
    creasinglyunpredictablerainfall.
    FormostLDCsthebiggestquestion,whichstillre-
    mainslargelyunanswered,ishowtodoit.Evenonce
    appropriateinterventionsforspeciclocationsand
    targetgroupsareselected,itischallengingforgov-
    ernmentsandagenciestosuccessfullyintervenein
    complexandchangingagriculturalwatermanagement
    (AWM)systemsthathavespecictechnical,environ-
    mental,socio-economicandinstitutionalissues.The
    InternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopments
    learningandknowledgeoninnovationsinwaterand
    ruralpoverty(InnoWat)setsoutastrategyforthis
    thedevelopmentpathwayliessomewherebetween
    theparalysisthatcomesfromtryingtotakeaccountof
    everythingandthefollyoffocusinginonasinglecri-
    terionsolution.
    MajorinvestmentinAWMwillbeneeded,andthepre-
    sent-daynationalprioritiesinsomecountriesdogive
    causeforseriousconcern.In2010,itwasestimated
    thatonlyUS$10billionwasinvestedgloballyinirriga-
    tionsystems,asurprisinglylowguregiventheimpor-
    tanceofwaterfortheagriculturalsector(incompari-
    son,theglobalmarketvolumeforbottledwaterinthe
    sameyearwasUS$59billion)(Wildetal.,2010).Surely
    itistimefortheworldtowakeuptothefactthatag-
    ricultureisamajor,valid,consumerofwaterandin-
    vestmentisessentialforthefutureofglobalfoodand
    watersecurity.Whenwaterisscarceweallhaveare-
    sponsibilitytousewaterwisely,efcientlyandproduc-
    tively.ResponsibleAWMcanmakeasignicantcontri-
    butiontofuturewatersecurity.Agricultureneedstobe
    WWDR4 463 MANAGINGWATERALONGTHELIVESTOCKVALUECHAIN
    muchmorewater-smartandmustbegiventheright
    signalsandincentivestomakethishappen.

    Note
    1 Leastdevelopedcountries(LDCs)isagroupofcountries
    whichareidentiedasbeingparticularlyvulnerable,witha
    lowincomelevelandalowindexofhumanassetsbasedon
    nutrition,healthandeducation(UNSD,2006).AlistofLDCsis
    includedinTable18.2.
    2 TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA,2006)mentionsthat
    consideringveryrapidtechnologicalprogress,thehigher
    gurecouldbe26,200milliontonnesofoilequivalentinstead
    of12,000.However,IEAalsoindicatesthatamorerealistic
    assessmentbasedonsloweryieldimprovementswouldbe
    6,00012,000.Amid-rangeestimateofaround9,500would
    requireaboutone-fthoftheworldsagriculturallandtobe
    dedicatedtobiomassproduction.
    3 Opportunitycostisthecostofanyactivitymeasuredintermsofthe
    valueofthebestalternativethatisnotchosen(thatisforegone).
    4 Noattemptismadeheretocloselydenetheword
    consumptionasfooddirectlyeatenbyindividualsand
    contributingtotheirnutritionalrequirements.Ratheritisused
    heretodescribeinbroadterms,thefoodpurchasedfromretail
    outletswhichmayincludebothfoodeatenandfoodwasted.

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    UNIDO

    AuthorMichaelE.Webber
    AcknowledgementsThischapterincludessignicantcontributionsfromCareyKing,
    AshlynnStillwellandKellyTwomey.ThechapterwascoordinatedbyIgorVolodinand
    CarolinaGonzalez-Castro.
    CHAPTER 19
    The global nexus of energy and water
    Shutterstock/dedpixto

    Energy and water are inter-related; people use energy for water and water for energy.
    The energywater relationship is under strain, introducing cross-sectoral vulnerabilities (i.e. a
    water constraint can become an energy constraint and an energy constraint can induce a
    water constraint).
    Trends imply that the strain will be exacerbated by:
    #.+30$%*0+0(!)*"+.!*!.#5*30!..%2!*5,+,1(0%+*#.+30$
    #.+30$%*,!.,%0!)*"+.!*!.#5*30!..%2!*5!+*+)%#.+30$
    #(+((%)0!$*#!3$%$3%((%/0+.00$!2%(%(%05+"30!.*
    ,+(%5$+%!/53$%$,!+,(!.!/!(!0%*#)+.!30!.%*0!*/%2!!*!.#5*)+.!
    energy-intensive water.
    Policy options are available to decision-makers to improve energy and water supplies without
    compromising either resource.
    WWDR4 467 THEGLOBALNEXUSOFENERGYANDWATER
    FIGURE 19.1
    Theenergywaternexus
    19.1Introduction
    Energyandwaterarefundamentalingredientsofmod-
    erncivilizationandpreciousresources.Theyarekey
    inputstoagriculturalsystems,factoriesandbuildings,
    andarenecessarytomeethumanrequirementsfor
    food,shelter,healthcareandeducation.
    Energyandwaterarealsocloselyinterconnectedand
    understrain.Consequently,thenexusofthetwohas
    beenthesubjectofattentionbythescienticcommu-
    nity,popularmediaandgoverningbodies.Thisnexus
    manifestsitselfinsocietyinmanyways.Forexam-
    ple,waterprovideselectricpower,isusedforextrac-
    tionoffuels,andplaysagrowingroleintheirrigation
    ofenergycropstoproducebiofuelssuchasethanol.
    Thethermoelectricsectorisoneofthelargestus-
    ersofwaterforcooling.Inparallel,thewaterindustry
    usespowerformoving,pumping,treatingandheat-
    ingwater.Ontopofthisrelationship,thepartsofthe
    worldwithhighexpectedratesforpopulationgrowth
    andeconomicexpansionarealsooftenplaceswhere
    watersourcesarescarce.Combiningthesetrendswith
    projectionsformoreirrigationimpliesrapidgrowthfor
    waterdemandsthatsomelocalitiesmightsatisfywith
    desalinationorwastewatertreatment,bothofwhich
    areveryenergy-intensive.
    Despitetheimportanceofenergyandwater,andthe
    closerelationshipbetweenthetwo,funding,policy-
    makingandoversightoftheseresourcesareperformed
    bydiferentpeopleinseparateagenciesinmany
    governments.Integratedenergywaterpolicymakingis
    rare.Energyplannersoftenassumetheywillhavethe
    watertheyneedandwaterplannersassumetheywill
    havetheenergytheyneedifoneoftheseassump-
    tionsfails,consequenceswillbedramatic.Bybringing
    scienticandengineeringexpertiseintothisvastly
    understudiedproblem,thisscenariomightbeavoided.
    19.1.1Energyandwaterareinter-related
    Energyandwaterarehighlyinterconnected:people
    usewaterforenergyandenergyforwater.Figure19.1
    showssomeoftheseinterconnections.Forexample,
    waterisadirectsourceofenergythroughhydroelec-
    tricdams,whichin2007providedabout15percentof
    globalelectricitygeneration(orapproximately2per
    Note: Energy ows are shown in red and water ows are shown in blue. As shown in the residential community, electricity and water are both
    used for diferent purposes.
    Source: Courtesy of EPRI (prepared by EPRI for a US DOE Report to Congress in 2006).
    CHAPTER19 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 468
    centoftotalenergyconsumption)(IEA,2009).Water
    alsoindirectlyenablespowergenerationthroughcool-
    ingthermoelectricpowerplants(powerplantsthat
    useheattogeneratepower),whichprovidemorethan
    75%oftheelectricityglobally(morethan16,000TWh)
    (IEA,2009).Whileagricultureisthelargestuserof
    waterglobally,becauseofthelargecoolingneedsof
    powerplants,thethermoelectricpowersectoristhe
    largestuserofwater(forwithdrawals)intheUnited
    States(USA).IntheUSAthepowersectorisrespon-
    siblefornearlyhalfofallwaterwithdrawals(approxi-
    mately800billionlitresperday,whenincludingsea-
    water),aheadofevenagriculture(Hutsonetal.,2004).
    Lowandmiddleincomecountriesuselesswaterfor
    powerplantsandmoreforagriculture,whereashigh-
    incomecountriesaretheopposite(WWAP,2003).In
    addition,waterisusedforextractiveindustriesthat
    producefuels(coal,naturalgas,uranium)forthepow-
    erandtransportationsectors.
    Animportantfeatureofwateruseisthedistinctionbe-
    tweenwaterwithdrawalsandconsumption.However,
    thisterminologyisnotusedinaconsistentmanner
    fromonecountrytothenext.Usingtheterminology
    fromKingetal.(2011),waterwithdrawalreferstothe
    volumeofwaterremovedfromawatersource;thiswa-
    terisnotlost,butitcannotbeallocatedtootherusers
    beforedischarge.Consumptionreferstothevolumeof
    waterlostthroughevaporation,transportation,orany
    othermeansbywhichwaterisnotreturnedtoitsna-
    tivesourceinliquidform.Asconsumptionisasubset
    ofwithdrawal,itislessthanorequaltowithdrawal,by
    denition(Kingetal.,2011).
    Nearlyallofthewaterusedforpowerplantsisre-
    turnedtothesource(typicallyariverorcoolingpond),
    thoughatadiferenttemperatureandquality.Asa
    resultofthesereturns,powerplantsareoftenrespon-
    sibleforasmallportionofnationalwaterconsumption,
    despitethelargewithdrawals.Averagingacrossthe
    nationalthermoelectricpowersectorintheUSA
    1
    ,over
    80litresofwaterarewithdrawnand2litresarecon-
    sumedforeverykilowatt-hourofelectricitygenerated
    (Webber,2007).Hydroelectricdamsuseasignicant
    amountofwaterconsumptionforpowergeneration
    primarilybecausetheincreasedsurfaceareaofmanu-
    facturedreservoirsbeyondthenominalrun-of-river
    acceleratestheevaporationratesfromriverbasins
    (Torcellinietal.,2003).Notably,theestimatesforthis
    increasedevaporationdependsignicantlyonre-
    gionallocation:hydroelectricreservoirsinthedesert
    south-westoftheUSAhavesignicantevaporative
    losses,whereasreservoirsincoolerclimatesmight
    havenegligiblelosses.Further,whetheralltheevapo-
    rationshouldbeattributedtopowergenerationisnot
    clear,asreservoirsservemultiplepurposes,including
    waterstorage,oodcontrol,navigationandrecreation.
    Theamountofwaterwithdrawnandconsumedby
    thermalpowerplantsisdrivenby(a)thetypeoffuel
    andpowercycleusedbyapowerplant(e.g.fossilfuels
    FIGURE 19.2
    Powerplantstypicallyusethreetypesofcooling:
    open-loop(toppanel),closed-loop(middle)and
    air-cooling(bottom)
    Source: Stillwell (2010), based on CEC (2002).
    Steamfrom
    PowerPlant Condensate
    Steam
    ColdWater
    HotWater
    CoolingSystem
    WaterSource
    (
    h
    o
    t
    )
    (
    c
    o
    l
    d
    )
    Cooling
    Tower
    Cooling
    System
    Steamfrom
    PowerPlant
    W
    a
    t
    e
    r
    v
    a
    p
    o
    u
    r
    Condensate
    Blowdown
    Steamfrom
    PowerPlant
    Condensate
    Fan
    WWDR4 469 THEGLOBALNEXUSOFENERGYANDWATER
    ornuclearfuelswithsteamcycles,naturalgaswith
    combinedcycle)and(b)thecoolingmethod.There
    arethreebasiccoolingmethods:open-loop,closed-
    loop,andair-cooling(Figure19.2).Fortypicalval-
    uesonwaterwithdrawalandconsumptionbypower
    plants,seeTable19.1,whichcontainsabreakdownby
    fuelandcoolingtype.
    Open-loop,oronce-through,coolingwithdrawslarge
    volumesofsurfacewater(freshorsaline),forone-time
    useandreturnsnearlyallthewatertothesourcewith
    littleoftheoverallwaterconsumedduetoevapora-
    tion(Stillwelletal.,2011).Whileopen-loopcoolingis
    energyefcientandhaslowinfrastructureandopera-
    tionalcosts,thedischargedwateriswarmerthanam-
    bientwater,causingthermalpollution,whichcankill
    shandharmaquaticecosystems.Thus,environmen-
    talagenciesregulatedischargetemperatures,taking
    intoaccountawaterbodysheatdissipationcapac-
    ity.Closed-loopcoolingrequireslesswaterwithdrawal
    becausethewaterisrecirculatedbycoolingtowersor
    evaporationponds.However,asthecoolingisessen-
    tiallyachievedthroughevaporation,closed-loopcool-
    ingcauseshigherwaterconsumption(Table19.1).The
    alternative,air-cooling,doesnotrequirewater,butin-
    steadcoolsbyuseoffansthatmoveairoveraradiator,
    similartothatinautomobiles.However,powerplant
    efciencyforair-coolingislower,up-frontcapitalcosts
    arehigherandrealestaterequirementsaresometimes
    larger,oftenmakingthisoptionlessattractiveeco-
    nomicallyunlesswaterresourcesarescarce.
    Eventhoughpowerplantsreturnmostofthewater
    theywithdraw,theirneedforlargeamountsofwater
    attherighttemperatureforcoolingsubjectsthemto
    vulnerabilities.Ifaseveredroughtorheatwavereduc-
    estheavailabilityofwaterorrestrictsitsefectiveness
    forcoolingduetoheattransferinhibitionsorthermal
    pollutionlimits,thefactthatthepowerplantcon-
    sumessolittlewaterbecomeslessimportantthanthe
    factthatitneedsthewaterintherstplace.
    Signicantvolumesofwaterarealsousedforfuels
    production,suchascoal,naturalgas,oil,uraniumand
    biofuels.Thewaterrequirementsforfuelsproduction
    forcoal,naturalgasanduranium,whilenon-trivial,are
    muchsmallerthanthewaterrequirementsfortheiruse
    withinpowerplantsandthereforeareconsideredneg-
    ligiblebycomparison.Bycontrast,thewaterrequire-
    mentstoproducecoal,naturalgasandpetroleumfor
    transportationapplicationsissignicantbycompari-
    son(becausetransportvehicleshavenowaterrequire-
    mentson-board),andisdiscussedlaterinthisreport.
    Allformsofenergyrequirewateratsomestageof
    theirlifecycles,includingproduction,conversion,distri-
    butionanduse.Eachfuelandtechnologyhasaslightly
    diferentsetofrequirements.
    TABLE 19.1
    Waterused(withdrawnand/orconsumed)variesfordiferentfuels,powercycles(combinedandopencycle)
    andcoolingmethods(open-loop,closed-loopandair-cooling)
    Source: Adapted from Stillwell (2010c).
    Closed-Loop
    (cooling tower)
    Open-Loop
    Withdrawals
    (L/kWh)
    Consumption
    (L/kWh)
    Withdrawals
    (L/kWh)
    Consumption
    (L/kWh)
    Nuclear 3.8 2.6 160.9 1.5
    Solar CSP 3.0 3.0 --- ---
    Coal 1.9 1.9 132.5 1.1
    Natural gas (Combined cycle) 0.9 0.7 52.2 0.4
    Natural gas
    (Combustion turbine)
    Negligible Negligible Negligible Negligible
    Solar PV Negligible Negligible Negligible Negligible
    Wind Negligible Negligible Negligible Negligible
    CHAPTER19 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 470
    Crude oil
    Crudeoilisthelargestprimaryenergysourceglo-
    bally.Itsproductionrequireswateratdrilling,pump-
    ing,renementandtreatment.Theaveragewateruse
    isestimatedtobe1.058m
    3
    perGJ(Gerbens-Leeneset
    al.,2008).Unconventionaloilproduction,whichispro-
    jectedtoincreaseinNorth,CentralandSouthAmerica
    until2035,consumes2.54timesmorewater(WEC,
    2010).
    Coal
    Coalisthesecondlargestprimaryenergysource
    globally,anditsuseisprojectedtoincreaseby2035.
    UNESCO-IHE(Gerbens-Leenesetal.,2008)estimates
    thatapproximately0.164m
    3
    perGJareusedinthe
    variousprocesses,signicantlymoreofwhichisused
    duringundergroundminingoperationsthaninopen
    pitmining(Gleicketal.,1994).
    Natural gas
    Signicantincreasesareexpectedintheproduction
    ofnaturalgasby2035.Waterrequirementsfordrill-
    ing,extractionandtransportationofconventionalgas
    sourcesarerelativelymodest,atanestimated0.109m
    3

    perGJ(Gerbens-Leenesetal.,2008).However,shale
    gasproduction,whichisexpectedtoincreaseinAsia,
    AustraliaandNorthAmerica(PacicEnergySummit,
    2011),hasslightlyhigherwater-intensitythanconven-
    tionalgasbecauseitsextractionmethod,hydraulic
    fracturing,injectsmillionsoflitresofwaterintoeach
    well.
    Uranium
    Uraniumsshareofglobalenergyconsumptionispro-
    jectedtoincreasefromabout6%to9%by2035(WEC,
    2010).UNESCO-IHEestimatesmodestwaterrequire-
    mentsof0.086m
    3
    perGJforuraniumminingand
    processing(Gerbens-Leenesetal.,2008).
    Biomass and biofuel
    Biomass,includingwood,agrofuel,wasteandmunici-
    palby-products,isanimportantsourceofreand
    heatinginmanynon-OrganisationforEconomic
    Co-operationandDevelopment(OECD)country
    households(WEC,2010).Further,bio-feedstocksare
    increasinglygrowncommerciallytoreplacefossilfuels
    inOECDcountries,andthistrendhasraisedconcerns
    aboutcropwaterrequirements.However,water
    intensitydependsonthefeedstocks,whereandhow
    theyaregrown,andwhethertheyarerstorsecond
    generationcrops(Gerbens-Leenesetal.,2008;
    WEF,2009).Thisvarietyinproductionprocesses
    makesitimpracticaltoattributeasingularvalueor
    evenarepresentativerangeofwaterconsumptionto
    biofuelproduction.
    Justassignicantvolumesofwaterareusedforen-
    ergy,inwealthiernationsasignicantfractionofen-
    ergyisusedforwater,intheformofelectricitytoheat,
    treatandmovewater,sometimesacrossvastdistances
    (CEC2005;Cohenetal.,2004;EIA,2001;Stillwelletal.,
    2010a).Mostwatersystemsarecomprisedofmany
    stagesofcollection,treatment,conveyance,distribu-
    tion,end-usepreparation,reconditioningandrelease
    TwomeyandWebber(2011).Theenergyintensityof
    waterisinuencedbysourcewaterquality,itsprox-
    imitytoawatertreatmentfacilityandend-use,its
    intendedend-useandsanitationlevel,aswellasits
    conveyancetoandtreatmentatawastewatertreat-
    mentfacility.Treatingwatertoaqualitythatissafe
    fordrinkingrequiressignicantamountsofenergyto
    pump,treatanddistributewatertoend-users,who
    arelikelytoheat,chill,orpressurizethiswatertosuit
    theirneeds.Afterwaterisusedinindustrializedcoun-
    tries,muchofitiscollectedandsenttoawastewater
    treatmentplantwherethewaterisreconditionedso
    thatitcanbereleasedbackintoawaterreservoir.In
    somecases,waterisrecycledorreclaimed,thatis,itis
    treatedtoanacceptablestandardforuseinnon-potable
    applications(e.g.agriculturalandlandscapeirriga-
    tion,groundwaterrecharge,industrialcooling/process
    water,toiletushing).Self-suppliedwaterusers,such
    asindustrialfacilities,powergeneratorsandirriga-
    tors,typicallydonotrequirewaterfordrinkingwater.
    However,theseusersmightutilizeenergy-intensive
    processes,suchasheating,chillingandpressurizing.
    Forthemorethan1billionpeoplewhodonothaveac-
    cesstopiped,cleandrinkingwater,ortowater-based
    sanitation,theavailabilityofabundantenergy,espe-
    ciallyintheformofelectricity,isacriticalingredientto
    enablingthoseservices.
    Theenergyrequiredtoproduce,treatanddistrib-
    utewatervariesdependingonthesource(Table19.2
    showstypicalguresintheUSA).Surfacewater(e.g.
    fromlakesandrivers)istheeasiestandleastenergy-
    intensivetotreat.However,waterconveyancecan
    requireanythingfrombetweenzero(forgravity-fed
    systems)toasmuchas3600kWhpermillionlitres
    forlong-haulsystems(CEC,2005;Cohenetal.,2004).
    Groundwater(e.g.fromaquifers)requiresmoreen-
    ergyforpumpingwatertothesurfacefortreatment
    WWDR4 471 THEGLOBALNEXUSOFENERGYANDWATER
    anddistribution.Forexample,watercollectionalone
    fromadepthof40mrequires140kWhperML,while
    adepthof120mrequiresapproximately500kWhper
    ML,inadditiontotreatmentenergyuse(EPRI,2002;
    USDOE,2006;Stillwelletal.,2011).
    Asfreshwatersuppliesbecomestrained,water
    sourcesonceconsideredunusable,includingbrack-
    ishgroundwaterandseawater,arebeingturnedto
    (Stillwelletal.,2010b).Whileuseofthesewatersourc-
    eshelpsmitigateconstraintsondrinkingwatersup-
    plies,treatmentofbrackishgroundwaterandseawater
    requiresuseofadvancedltration(e.g.reverseosmo-
    sismembranes),specialtymaterials,andhigh-pressure
    pumpsfordesalting.Overall,treatmentofthesewa-
    tersourcescanrequireasmuchas4400kWhperML
    (EPRI,2002),or1012timestheenergyuseofstand-
    ardwatertreatment.Thetheoreticalminimumenergy
    requirementfordesalinationusingreverseosmosis
    systemsis680kWhperML(Shannonetal.,2008).
    Wastewatertreatmentalsorequireslargeamountsof
    energy(WEF,1997).High-incomecountriesthathave
    stricterdischargeregulationsinstallmoreenergy-
    intensivetreatmenttechnologies.Tricklingltertreat-
    ment,whichusesabiologicallyactivesubstratefor
    aerobictreatment,isareasonablypassivesystem,
    consumingonaverageover250kWhperML(EPRI,2002;
    Stillwelletal.,2011).Difusedaerationaspartof
    activatedsludgeprocessingisamoreenergy-intensive
    formofwastewatertreatment,requiring340kWh
    perMLduetoblowersandgastransferequipment
    (EPRI,2002;Stillwelletal.,2011).Moreadvanced
    wastewatertreatment,usingltrationandtheoption
    ofnitrication,requires400500kWhperML
    (EPRI,2002;Stillwelletal.,2011).Infact,moreadvanced
    sludgetreatmentandprocessingcanconsumeenergy
    intherangeof3080%oftotalwastewaterplanten-
    ergyuse(CenterforSustainableSystems,Universityof
    Michigan,2008).Treatingwastewatersludgethrough
    anaerobicdigestioncanalsoproduceenergythrough
    thecreationofmethane-richbiogas,arenewablefuel
    thatcanbeusedtogenerateupto50%ofthetreat-
    mentplantselectricityneeds(Stillwelletal.,2010b;
    Seigeretal.,2005).
    Becausesystemsvarysignicantlybetweenregionsin
    termsofpumpingrequirements,sourcequality,pre-
    vailingtreatmentpractices(ifany),andwastewater
    collection(ifany),itisdifculttoassessglobalenergy
    inputsembeddedinthewatersystem.FortheUSA,
    wheredataareavailable,approximately10%ormore
    ofnationalenergyconsumptionisrequiredfortheen-
    tirewatersystem(Figure19.3)(TwomeyandWebber,
    2011).Theseguresaretypicalforhigh-income
    countries.Forlow-andmiddle-incomecountries,
    wherelarge-scalewatersystemsarerarer,theembed-
    dedenergyislowerbycomparison.
    19.1.2Globalstrainintheenergywaterrelationship
    Theinterrelationshipofenergyandwaterandthe
    strainsplacedonbothoftheseresourcesmanifests
    itselfintoughchoicesatthelocallevel.Forexample,
    lowwaterlevelsinhydroelectricreservoirscanforce
    TABLE 19.2
    Waterandwastewatertreatmentandconveyancerequiresvastamountsofenergy
    Source / treatment type
    Energy use
    (kWh/million L)
    Water
    Surface water 60
    Groundwater 160
    Brackish groundwater 1,0002,600
    Seawater 2,6004,400
    Wastewater
    Trickling lter 250
    Activated sludge 340
    Advanced treatment without nitrication 400
    Advanced treatment with nitrication 500
    Note: Average US gures for energy used for water production (not including energy used for distribution).
    Sources: CEC (2005); EPRI (2002); Stillwell et al. (2010b, 2011); Stillwell (2010c).
    CHAPTER19 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 472
    powerplantstoturnof.Thoughhydroelectricpoweris
    attractive,itisleastreliableduringdroughtswhenthe
    needtousewaterforotherpurposes(e.g.fordrinking
    andirrigation)maytakeprecedenceoverhydroelec-
    tricity.Forexample,withoutachangeinwaterusage
    patterns,lakesMeadandPowellalongtheColorado
    RiverintheUSA,whichareusedforhydroelectric
    powerandmunicipalsupply,areprojectedtohavea
    50%chanceofrunningdryby2021(Spotts,2008).
    Similarly,citiesinUruguaymustchoosewhetherthey
    wantthewaterintheirreservoirstobeusedfordrink-
    ingorelectricity(Proteger,2008).
    Theproblemisnotjustlimitedtohydroelectricres-
    ervoirs.Asthermoelectricpowerplantsrequirevast
    amountsofwater,theyarevulnerabletodroughts
    orheatwavesrestrictingtheiroutput.Heatwavesin
    Francein2003causedpowerplantstodrawdown
    theiroutputbecauseoflimitsonrejectiontempera-
    turesimposedforenvironmentalreasons(Poumadre
    etal.,2005;Lagadec,2004).Severeheatanddrought
    killedapproximately15,000peopleandcreatedriver
    watertemperaturesthatweretoohotforefective
    powerplantcooling.Manynuclearpowerplantshad
    tooperateatmuchreducedcapacityandanenviron-
    mentalexemptionwasenactedtoallowtherejection
    temperaturesofcoolingwaterfrompowerplantsto
    exceedpriorlimits(Poumadreetal.,2005;Lagadec,
    2004).Atthesametime,20%ofhydropowerca-
    pacitywasnotavailablebecauseoflowriverlevels
    (HightowerandPierce,2008).Justasdemandfor
    electricitywasspikingforairconditioninginresponse
    totheheat,supplieswerebeingcutback.Thedi-
    lemmahasalsoshownupinothercountrieswhere
    droughthasbroughtnuclearpowerplantswithindays
    ofshuttingofbecausethevastamountsofcooling
    waterwereatriskfromdiversiontootherpriorities,
    suchasmunicipalusefordrinkingwater.
    Whilewaterlimitationscanrestrictenergy,energylimi-
    tationscanrestrictwater.Forexample,poweroutages
    FIGURE 19.3
    EnergyowsforthepublicwatersupplysystemintheUSA
    Notes: Fuels (on the left) are used directly and indirectly through electricity generation for diferent purposes (on the right). The thickness of
    the ows is proportional to the amount of energy consumed. About 60% of the total energy consumption is lost as waste heat. Only energy
    consumption related to the conveyance, treatment, distribution and heating (in the commercial and residential sectors) and public water and
    wastewater treatment distributed in the US public water supply is included. Self-supplied sectors, including agriculture and industry are not
    included.
    Source: Courtesy of K. M. Twomey and M. E. Webber, University of Texas, Austin, USA.
    Coal
    2,908trillion
    BTU
    Nuclear
    1,207trillion
    BTU
    Electricity
    Generation
    5,433trillion
    BTU
    2,092trillion
    BTU
    RejectedEnergy
    3,341trillionBTU
    628
    283
    385
    2,561
    1,018
    4,626
    598
    347
    40
    35
    2
    2
    80
    56
    5
    9
    66
    1,167
    1,923
    1,044
    473
    2,336
    1,184
    2,171
    Water
    Services
    5,278trillion
    BTU
    Rejected
    Energy
    7,194trillion
    BTU
    1,079
    1,662
    737
    2,227
    347
    WaterHeating:2,056
    WaterHeating:586
    Power:158
    ChemicalandRening:2,139
    PaperandPulp:1,111
    Other:1,099
    Other:911
    Other:879
    PublicWaterandWastewater:192
    Residential2,967trillionBTU
    Commercial1,657trillionBTU
    Industrial4,507trillionBTU
    Renewable
    Energy
    678trillionBTU
    Other
    37trillionBTU
    NaturalGas
    5,644trillion
    BTU
    Petroleum
    2,000trillion
    BTU
    1,944
    40
    1,440
    221
    WWDR4 473 THEGLOBALNEXUSOFENERGYANDWATER
    highgrowthvariants),allshowingpopulationgrowth
    toatleast2050,atwhichtimepopulationcould
    decrease(UN,2005;UN,2006).TheIEAassumesfor
    itsprojectionsthat(a)globalpopulationwillgrow
    1%peryearonaveragefrom6.4billionin2004to
    8.1billionin2030and(b)thateconomicgrowthwill
    takeplaceatanaverageof3.4%peryearoverthe
    sameperiod(IEA,2009).TheIEAinterpretsthese
    trendstoyieldagrowthinglobalprimaryenergy
    demandof70%between2004and2030,withouta
    verysignicantshiftinthebasicmakeupinthefuel
    mix,despitepolicyprioritizationforbiofuelsandother
    renewablesources.Similarly,thispopulationgrowth
    shouldleadtoincreasesinglobalwaterdemand(Oki
    andKanae,2006).
    19.2.2Growthinpercapitademandforenergyand
    water
    Astheworldpopulationgrows,theglobaldemand
    forenergyandwaterisincreasingtomeetpeoples
    subsistenceandlifestyleneeds.Addedtothis,theper
    capitademandforenergyandwaterisalsogrow-
    ing.Whilethedevelopedworldislookingforwaysto
    conserveenergyandwater,thedevelopingworldis
    rapidlyaccumulatingwealth,bringingaboutadesire
    forbettertransportation,anicerlifestyle,moremeat-
    intensivediets,andarobusteconomy.Thecombined
    efectisthatthedemandindevelopingcountriesis
    increasingrapidlyforliquidfuels,electricity,andwa-
    ter(forindustrialprocesses,higher-proteindiets,and
    comfort).Consequently,thegrowthindemandforen-
    ergyandwaterisoutpacingthegrowthinpopulation.
    Foraworldinwhichtheseresourcesareunderstrain,
    acceleratingdemandcouldhavefar-reachingimpacts.
    Despitepopulationgrowthestimatesofonly1937%
    (UN,2005;UN,2006)from2004to2030,theIEA
    projectsmuchgreaterincreasesinenergydemand,
    approximately70%(IEA,2009),indicatingthatthean-
    nualpercapitaenergyusegloballywillincreasefrom
    1.7to2.1tonnesofoilequivalent.Halfofthegrowth
    indemandisprojectedtocomefromthepowersec-
    tor(IEA,2009),showingthatelectricityisapreferred
    formofenergyforthosewhocanafordit.Becauseof
    thepowersectorswaterintensity,thenewdemandfor
    electricitywilllikelyleadtoincreaseddemandforwa-
    terwithdrawals.TheIEAalsoconsidersanalternative
    policyscenario,forwhichenergygrowthislowerthan
    thenominalreferenceprojectionforenergygrowth.
    Eveninthisalternative,bothabsoluteandpercapita
    energydemandsareexpectedtoincreasebetween
    (duetostormsorintentionalacts)atwaterandwaste-
    watertreatmentplantsputthewatersystematriskof
    disruptionsduetoenergyshortages.Thistrade-ofis
    astrategicquestionforsomecountries.SaudiArabia
    usesmuchofitsownmostvaluableresources(crude
    oilandnaturalgas)toobtaintheresourcesitdoes
    nothave(freshwater),facingthechoiceofwhetherit
    isbettertosellitsenergyresourcesathighpricesor
    haveenoughfreshwatertomaintainmunicipalneeds
    (EIA,2007;IEA,2005).
    19.2Exacerbationofthestrainintheenergy
    waterrelationship
    Trendsimplythattheexistingstrainintheenergy
    waterrelationshipwillbeexacerbatedby:
    growthintotaldemandforenergyandwater,pri-
    marilydrivenbypopulationgrowth,
    growthinpercapitademandforenergyandwater,
    primarilydrivenbyeconomicgrowth,
    globalclimatechange,whichwilldistorttheavail-
    abilityofwaterinpositiveandnegativeways,de-
    pendingonthelocation,and
    policychoices,bywhichpeopleareselectingmore
    water-intensiveenergyandmoreenergy-intensive
    water.
    19.2.1Growthintotaldemandforenergyandwater
    Thoughtheglobalfuelmixisdiverse,fossilfuels(oil,
    coalandnaturalgas)satisfymorethan80%ofthe
    worldsneedsforprimaryenergyresources.Totalen-
    ergyconsumption,includingtraditionalbiomass,such
    aswoodanddung,wasapproximately500exajoules
    in2008.Mostprojectionsshowanincreaseindemand
    forenergy,predominantlydrivenbybothpopulation
    andeconomicgrowth.Basedonitscentralscenar-
    io(NewPoliciesScenario),theInternationalEnergy
    Agency(IEA),estimatesthatworldprimaryenergyde-
    mandwillincreaseby36%between2008and2035,or
    by1.2%onaverageperyear(IEA,2010).In2008non-
    OECDcountrieswereresponsibleforapproximately
    56%oftheenergyconsumption(IEA,2010)andare
    expectedtoaccountfor93%oftheincreasewith
    Chinaaccountingfor36%.Withfossilfuelsaccount-
    ingfor50%oftheincreasefrom20082035andwith
    anestimatethatthedemandforelectricitywillgrow
    by76%globallybetween2007and2030(IEA,2009),
    therewillbeacomplementarysignicantincreasein
    demandforwater.
    TheUnitedNations(UN)makesseveralprojec-
    tionsforglobalpopulation(withlow,mediumand
    CHAPTER19 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 474
    2004and2030(IEA,2009).EvenintheUSA,where
    energy-intensivemanufacturinghasshrunkoverthe
    lastfewdecades,thepercapitaenergyuseisproject-
    edtoincrease.
    Oneofthedriversofincreasingenergyusepercapita
    isthedemandforbetterenvironmentalconditionsas
    peoplesincomesrise(Dasguptaetal.,2002),aphe-
    nomenonthatisillustratedwiththecaseofwaste-
    watertreatment.Advancedwastewatertreatment
    ismoreenergy-intensivethanstandardwastewa-
    tertreatment,sothetrendtowardshighertreatment
    standardswilllikelyincreasetheunitenergyneeds
    ofwastewatertreatmentforcountriesmovingupin
    income(Applebaum,2000).However,theintroduc-
    tionofgreaterenergyefciencywillpossiblyofset
    theexpectedincreasesinenergyintensityforstricter
    treatmentstandards,limitingtheprojectedgrowthin
    electricityuseattreatmentplants.Thehigherpercap-
    itaenergyexpendituresforwastewatertreatmentto
    achievestricterenvironmentalstandardsisascenario
    likelytoberepeatedinanalogouswaysthroughoutso-
    cietiesthatareachievingafuence;thatis,asnations
    getricher,theywilldemandmoreenergy.
    19.2.3Intensicationofcross-sectoralstrainatthe
    nexusofenergyandwaterthroughglobalclimate
    change
    Watersystemsarelikelytobehithardestbyclimate
    changeandwillbealeadingindicatoroftemperature
    changes.Theefectsarehardtopredict,buthigher
    temperaturescouldinduceseveralconsequences,in-
    cludingturningsomesnowfallintorainfall,moving
    thesnowmeltseasonearlier(therebyafectingspring
    waterows),increasingintermittencyandintensityof
    precipitation,afectingwaterqualityandraisingthe
    risksofoodsanddroughts(OkiandKanae,2006;
    Gleick,2000a).Inaddition,sealevelrisescouldcause
    contaminationofgroundwateraquiferswithsalinewa-
    ternearthecoasts,potentiallyafectingnearlyhalfof
    theworldspopulation(OkiandKanae,2006).These
    challengescanbexedwithgreaterenergyexpendi-
    turesforminingdeeperwater,movingitfarther,treat-
    ingwatertomakeitdrinkable,orstoringitforlonger
    periodsoftime.Withatypicalenergymixoverthe
    nextfewdecades,theseenergyexpendituresrelease
    greenhousegases,whichintensifythehydrological
    cyclefurther,compoundingtheprobleminapositive
    feedbackloop(Figure19.4).
    19.3Policychoicestowardsmoreenergy-
    intensivewaterandwater-intensiveenergy
    Ontopoftheabove-mentionedthreetrendsisa
    policy-drivenmovementtowardsmoreenergy-
    intensivewaterandwater-intensiveenergy.
    19.3.1Growingenergy-intensityofwater
    Manyhigh-incomesocietiesaremovingtowardsmore
    energy-intensivewaterbecauseofapushbymunicipali-
    tiesfornewsuppliesofwaterfromsourcesthatarefar-
    therawayandoflowerquality,therebyrequiringmore
    energytogetthemtotherequiredqualityandlocation.
    Becauseofgrowingenvironmentalconcerns,standards
    forwatertreatmentarebecomingstricteraswaterisex-
    pectedtobecleaner,andsotheamountofenergypeo-
    plespendperlitrewillincrease.Unitelectricityconsump-
    tionforwatertreatmenthasincreasedatacompound
    rateof0.8%peryear,withnoobviousexpectationforthe
    trendtostop(Applebaum,2000).Atthesametime,in
    manyindustrializedsocieties,waterorwastewaterinfra-
    structureisagingandwillincreaseunitelectricityusedue
    toage-relatedlosses,whileotherfactors(e.g.replacing
    olderequipmentwithmoreefcientnewequipmentand
    processes,andestablishinglargertreatmentplantswith
    higherenergyeconomiesofscale)willdecreaseuniten-
    ergyconsumption,butnotenoughtoofsettheenergy
    needsofhigherleveltreatment(Applebaum,2000).
    Societiesarealsogoingtogreaterlengthstobring
    freshwaterfromitssourcestodenseurbanareas.These
    FIGURE 19.4
    Theenergyclimatewatercyclecreatesaself-
    reinforcingchallenge
    Source: Image based on suggestion of J. Long at Lawrence
    Livermore National Laboratory.
    E
    n
    e
    r
    g
    y
    C
    l
    i
    m
    a
    t
    e
    W
    a
    t
    e
    r
    WWDR4 475 THEGLOBALNEXUSOFENERGYANDWATER
    efortsincludediggingtoever-deeperundergroundres-
    ervoirs,orbymovingwaterthroughmassivelong-haul
    projects(Stillwelletal.,2010b).Forexample,Chinais
    implementingtheSouth-NorthWaterTransferScheme,
    whichisanorderofmagnitudelargerthanCalifornias
    aqueductandwillmovewaterfromthreeriverbasinsin
    thewetsouthernpartofChinatothedrynorthernparts
    (StoneandJia,2006).Twooftheseroutesaremore
    than1000kmlong(StoneandJia,2006),representing
    substantialinvestmentsinenergyfortransport.Similarly,
    inTexas,privateinvestorsareproposingaprojectto
    movegroundwaterfromtheOgallalaAquifer(oneof
    theworldslargest)hundredsofkilometresacrossthe
    stateofTexastothemunicipalitiesintheDallasFort
    WorthMetroplex(Bereld,2008).
    On12April1961,USPresidentKennedysaid,Ifwecould
    evercompetitivelyatacheaprategetfreshwater
    fromsaltwaterthatwouldbeinthelong-rangeinterest
    ofhumanity,andwouldreallydwarfanyotherscientic
    accomplishment.(Gleick,2000b).Afewmonthslater,
    hesignedabilltosettheUSAonaresearchcourseto
    seekabreakthroughindesalination(Kennedy,1961).
    Sincethattime,globaldesalinationcapacityhasseen
    adecades-longsteepupwardtrend(Gleick,2006).It
    isunlikelythatthistrendwillendsoongiventheother
    trendsnotedabove.Whiledesalinationistraditionally
    associatedwiththeMiddleEastwhereenergyresources
    areplentifulbutwaterisscarce,citiesinotherlocations
    (e.g.London,SanDiego,ElPaso)areconsideringde-
    salinationplantstogetfreshwatereitherfromnearby
    salineaquifersorcoasts.Thesteepmarketpenetration
    ratesfordesalinationareparticularlyrelevantforthe
    adoptionofnewmembrane-basedtechnologies(NAS,
    2008).Whilemembrane-basedreverse-osmosisap-
    proachesarelessenergy-intensivethanthermaldesali-
    nation,theyrequiremuchmoreenergythantraditional
    freshwaterproductionfromsurfacesources.
    19.3.2Growingwater-intensityofenergy
    Foravarietyofeconomic,securityandenvironmental
    reasons,includingthedesireamonghigh-incomecoun-
    triestoproduceahigherproportionofenergyfrom
    domesticsourcesandtodecarbonizeenergysystems,
    manyofthepreferredenergychoicesaremorewater-
    intensive.Forexample,nuclearenergyisproduced
    domestically,butisalsomorewater-intensivethan
    otherformsofpowergeneration.Carboncaptureand
    sequestration,whichisanoptionfordecarbonizingcoal
    combustionandotherscrubbertechnologies,arealso
    muchmorewater-intensivethanunscrubbedcoal-red
    generation.Asenvironmentalcontrolsaretightenedon
    carbonandotherpollutants,wateruseatpowerplants
    foruegasmanagementislikelytoincrease.
    Themovetowardsmorewater-intensiveenergyisespe-
    ciallyrelevantfortransportationfuels,suchasunconven-
    tionalfossilfuels(oilshale,coal-to-liquids,gas-to-liquids,
    tarsands),electricity,hydrogenandbiofuels,allofwhich
    canrequiresignicantlymorewatertoproducethangas-
    oline,dependingonhowtheyareproduced.Itisimpor-
    tanttonotethatthepushforrenewableelectricityalso
    includessolarphotovoltaics(PV)andwindpower,which
    requireverylittlewater,andsonotallfutureenergy
    choicesareworsefromawater-perspective.
    Almostallunconventionalfossilfuelsaremorewater-in-
    tensivethanconventionalfossilfuels(Figure19.5).While
    gasolinemightrequireafewlitresofwaterforevery
    litreoffuelthatisproduced(includingproductionand
    rening),unconventionalfossilsourcesaretypicallya
    factorof25morewater-intensive.Electricityforplug-
    inhybridelectricvehiclesorelectricvehiclesareappeal-
    ingbecausetheyarecleanatthevehiclesend-useand
    itiseasiertoscrubemissionsathundredsofsmoke-
    stacksthanmillionsoftailpipes.However,becausemost
    powerplantsusealotofcoolingwater,electricitycan
    alsobeabouttwiceaswater-intensivethangasoline
    permiletravellediftheelectricityisgeneratedfromthe
    standardgridthathashighfractionsofthermoelectric
    generation.Ifthatelectricityisgeneratedfromwindor
    otherwater-freesources,thenitwillbelesswater-con-
    sumptivethangasoline.Thoughunconventionalfossil
    fuelsandelectricityareallpotentiallymorewater-in-
    tensivethanconventionalgasolinebyafactorof25,
    biofuelsareparticularlywater-intensive.Growingbiofu-
    elsconsumesapproximately1000Lofwaterforevery
    litreoffuelthatisproduced(KingandWebber,2008).
    Sometimesthiswaterisprovidednaturallyfromrainfall.
    However,foranon-trivialandgrowingproportionof
    biofuelsproduction,thatwaterisprovidedbyirrigation.
    Sustainedhigherenergypricesandemergingpolitical
    consensusaboutclimatechangeandenergysecurity
    havebroughtfossilfuelsintonewscrutiny.Consequently,
    severalcountriesareseekinganenergysolutionthatis
    domesticallysourced(addressingsomeofthenational
    securityconcerns),abundant(addressingtheconcerns
    aboutresourcedepletion),andlesscarbon-intensive(ad-
    dressingtheconcernsaboutclimatechange).Because
    signicantvolumesofoilareimportedinmanycountries,
    andbecausethissectorisamajorcontributortocarbon
    CHAPTER19 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 476
    emissions,itisontheshort-listoftargetsforchangeby
    policymakers,innovatorsandentrepreneurs.
    Someenergyoptionsareunconventionalfossilfuels
    (includingcompressednaturalgas,coal-to-liquids,tar
    sandsandoilshale),hydrogen,biofuelsandelectric-
    ity.Whiletheseoptionshavetheirmerits,mostoftheir
    productionmethodsaremorewater-intensivethan
    conventionalpetroleum-basedgasolineanddiesel
    (KingandWebber,2008).Theproductionofoilshale
    andtarsandsisverywater-intensive.Forexample,in
    situoilshaleproductionmightusevastamountsof
    electricpowertoheatthebitumenunderground,and
    thatelectricpowerwilllikelyneedwatercooling.Tar
    sandsproductionusessteaminjectiontoreduce
    theviscosityofthetars.Whilecoalproductionisnot
    particularlywater-intensive,creatingliquidfuelsfrom
    coalusingFischerTropschprocessesrequireswateras
    aprocessmaterial.Hydrogencanalsobeverywater-
    intensiveifproducedbyelectrolysis(Webber,2007).
    However,ifhydrogenisproducedfromnon-irrigated
    biomassresourcesorbyreformingfossilfuels,its
    water-intensityisonparwithconventionalgasoline
    productionanduse.Notably,thebiohydrogenpathway
    isnotyeteconomicalorscaled-up.
    Biofuelsarealsoverypopularbecausetheycanbe
    growndomesticallyandconsumeCO
    2
    duringphotosyn-
    thesis.Theyalsoholdthepotentialfordisplacingfossil
    fuels.Therealchallengeforbiofuelsistheirwaterinten-
    sity(KingandWebber,2008),buttherearealsosome
    FIGURE 19.5
    Waterintensityoftransportation
    Notes: The water-intensity of diferent fuels in litres of water required per kilometre travelled, show great variation from irrigated biofuels (at the
    high end, withdrawing and consuming more than 100 L of water per km) to electricity from wind or solar resources (at the low end, requiring
    approximately 0 L per km). Water consumption (left stacked bars read on left axis) and withdrawal (right stacked bars read on right axis) in
    L per km for various fuels for light duty vehicles. Water use from mining and farming is designated diferently from that used for processing and
    rening. Where a range of values exists (e.g. diferent irrigation amounts in diferent states), a minimum value is listed with an additional range.
    Otherwise, the values plotted are considered average values. FT = FischerTropsch; FCV = fuel cell vehicle; US Grid = electricity from average
    US grid mix; and Renewables = renewable electricity generated without consumption or withdrawal of water (e.g. wind and photovoltaic solar
    panels)
    Source: Beal (2011, g. 5-2, p. 273).
    10
    5
    10
    4
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    3
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    2
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    1
    10
    0
    10
    -1
    10
    -2
    10
    5
    10
    4
    10
    3
    10
    2
    10
    1
    10
    0
    10
    -1
    10
    -2
    Consumption(LH
    2
    O/km) Withdrawal(LH
    2
    O/km)
    Fuels
    G
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    e

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    T
    a
    r

    S
    a
    n
    d
    s
    FossilFuels Biofuels
    HydogenFuel
    CellandElectric
    Vehicles
    CONSUMPTION WITHDRAWAL
    AdditionalMining/FarmingRange
    AdditionalProcessing/ReningRange
    MinimumProcessing/Rening
    MinimumMining/Farming
    AdditionalMining/FarmingRange
    D
    e
    n
    o
    t
    e
    s

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    AdditionalProcessing/ReningRange
    MinimumProcessing/Rening
    MinimumMining/Farming
    WWDR4 477 THEGLOBALNEXUSOFENERGYANDWATER
    importantwaterqualityimpacts(Twomeyetal.,2010).
    Recentanalysisindicatesthatirrigatedbiofuelscanre-
    quireover100litresofwaterforeverykilometretravelled
    inalight-dutyvehicle(KingandWebber,2008;NAS,
    2007),approximately1,000timesmorewaterperkilo-
    metrethanconventionalgasoline.Whenscalingupthis
    kindofproductiontopreparefornationalbiofuelsman-
    dates,watercanbecomeacriticallimitingfactor.
    Conclusionsandrecommendations
    Thenexusofwaterandenergyisfundamentaltoso-
    ciety,isintertwinedinmanyways,isunderstrain,and
    thatstrainisprojectedtobecomeworseasworld-
    widedemandforbothincreasesmorequicklythan
    populationandtheefectsofclimatechangemanifest
    themselves.Whiletheenergywaterrelationshipmight
    appearintractable,therearemanyopportunitiesto
    mitigateitsworstaspectsthroughnewtechnologies,
    newconceptsforhowtoreusewaterefectively,new
    marketsthatputapriceonwater,andrecognitionthat
    conservingwaterandconservingenergyaresynony-
    mous.Thoughtheworldswatersituationappearsdire
    formanyreasons,italsopresentsanopportunityto
    addresstheproblemandtherearemanytoolsavail-
    able.Inparticular,policyengagementiswarranted.
    Becausetherearemanyrivers,watersheds,basinsand
    aquifersthatspanseveralregionsand/orcountries,
    thereisaneedfornationalandinternationalengage-
    mentonenergywaterissues.Unfortunately,thereare
    somepolicypitfallsattheenergywaternexus.For
    example,energyandwaterpolicymakingaretypically
    disaggregated.Further,thedataonwaterquantityare
    sparse,error-proneandinconsistent.Nationaldatabas-
    esofwateruseforpowerplantscontainerrors,possi-
    blyduetodiferencesinunits,formatsanddenitions
    betweenstateandfederalreportingrequirements.For
    example,thedenitionsforwateruse,withdrawaland
    consumptionarenotalwaysclear.
    Despitethepotentialpitfalls,therearepolicyopportu-
    nitiesattheenergywaternexus.Forexample,water
    conservationandenergyconservationaresynonymous.
    Thatis,policiesthatpromotewaterconservationalso
    achieveenergyconservation;andpoliciesthatpromote
    energyconservationalsoachievewaterconservation.
    Somepolicyactionsfortheenergywaternexusareto:
    Collect,maintainandmakeavailableaccurate,up-
    datedandcomprehensivewaterdata.Withoutgood
    dataaboutwaterreserves,owsanduse,itwillbe
    difcultforanalyststoassessthesituationandfor
    policymakerstorespond;thishurdleremainsoneof
    thetopbarrierstoefectiveaction.
    Investheavilyinwater-relatedresearchanddevelop-
    ment(R&D)tomatchrecentincreasesinenergy-
    relatedR&D.R&Dinvestmentsareanexcellent
    policyoptionfornationalandinternationalbodies
    becauselocalgovernmentsandindustryusuallyare
    notinapositiontoadequatelyinvestinresearch.
    Consequently,theamountofR&Dinthewatersec-
    torismuchlowerthanforothersectors,suchas
    pharmaceuticals,technologyorenergy.Topicsfor
    R&Dincludelow-energywatertreatment,novel
    approachestodesalination,remoteleakdetectors
    forwaterinfrastructure,andair-coolingsystemsfor
    powerplants.Inaddition,R&Dforbiofuelsshould
    emphasizefeedstocks,suchascellulosicsourcesor
    algaethatdonotrequirefreshwaterirrigation.
    Developregionalwaterplansthatconsiderincreased
    demandsforelectricity,andregionalenergyplansthat
    considerincreaseddemandsforwater.Forexample,
    theriseofbiofuelsorelectricityasfuelsubstituteswill
    haveverydiferentregionalimpacts.Biofuelswillaf-
    fectwateruseinrural,agriculturalareas,whereaselec-
    tricvehicleswillafectwateruseatpowerplantsnear
    majorpopulationcentres.
    Encourageresourcesubstitutiontofuelsthathavewa-
    ter,emissionsandsecuritybenets.Somefuelsources,
    suchasnaturalgas,windandsolarPVneedmuchless
    waterandreduceemissionsofpollutantsandcarbon.
    Supporttheuseofreclaimedwaterforirrigation
    andprocesscooling.Usingreclaimedwaterforpow-
    erplants,industryandagriculturecanspareasignif-
    icantamountofenergyandcost.However,nanc-
    ing,regulatoryandpermittinghurdlesrestrictthis
    option.Reusewatercanalsoreducethedemandfor
    freshwater,forexamplebyusingreclaimedwater
    (e.g.treatedwastewater)forpowerplantcoolingor
    otherindustrialusesalongwithirrigation.Thereis
    precedentforsuchaction,asnearly80%ofwater
    usedintheindustrialsectorinJapaniscurrentlyre-
    cycled(OkiandKanae,2006,p.1071).Whilemost
    citieswouldrefrainfromusingtreatedwastewa-
    terasasourceofdrinkingwater,thisavenueisalso
    availableandhasbeenimplemented,forexample,in
    water-scarceSingaporeandtheInternationalSpace
    Stationwithoutillefects.Consequently,itisrecom-
    mendedthatmunicipalitiesafectedbywater-
    scarcityshouldmoveaggressivelytowardstheuse
    ofreclaimedwater.
    Supporttheuseofdryandhybridwetdrycoolingat
    powerplants.Notallpowerplantsneedwetcooling
    CHAPTER19 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 478
    allthetime.Findingwaystohelpplantsupgrade
    theircoolingtolesswater-intensiveversionscan
    sparesignicantvolumesofwatertomeetpublic
    supplyorin-streamowrequirements.
    Establishstrictstandardsinbuildingcodesforwater
    efciency:revisedstandardsforlow-owapplianc-
    es,water-heatingefciency,purple-pipingforre-
    claimedwater,andrainbarrelstoreducebothwater
    andenergyconsumption.
    Investaggressivelyinconservation.Waterconservation
    canbeacost-efectivewaytosaveenergy,andenergy
    conservationcanbeacost-efectivewaytosavewater.
    Therefore,conservationhascross-cuttingbenets.
    Conservationisoneoftheeasiestandmostcost-ef-
    fectiveapproachestoreducingbothwaterandenergy
    use,especiallyassavingwaterissynonymouswith
    savingenergy,andvice-versa(Cohenetal.,2004;
    Hardberger,2008).Whileconservationwillnotsolve
    allofsocietysenergyandwaterproblems,itwillbuy
    sometimewhilenewsolutionsaredeveloped.

    Note
    1 ManynumbersusedinthisdescriptionarefortheUSA
    becausethedataareavailablewithgreaterdelityand
    comprehensivenessthanforothercountriesandregions.While
    thesenumbersaresuitablyrepresentativefortheenergywater
    relationshipingeneral,therewillbesomevariationinother
    regionsduestageofeconomicdevelopment,prevailingclimate
    andtechnologychoices.

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    AuthorsJohnPayne(SNC-LavalinEnvironment,DivisionofSNC-LavalinInc.)and
    CarolinaGonzalez-Castro
    AcknowledgementIgorVolodin(Coordinator)
    CHAPTER 20
    Freshwater for industry
    Shutterstock/DentonRumsey

    Industrys need for water has not fundamentally changed, but it has become more critical
    and it is a function of water productivity in a sustainability context.
    Economic forces, comprising several factors that afect the demand side, are the strongest
    inuence on water for industry. Climate change is the main supply side driver.
    Cheap, plentiful water can no longer be taken for granted. There are uncertainties with the
    quantity and quality of water both for industry and its supply chain.
    Challenges for industry include adapting to water scarcity, changing management paradigms
    and minimizing environmental impacts.
    Opportunities exist in proactive integrated water management using corporate water
    strategies that are outward looking and involve a commitment to innovation and
    implementation.
    CHAPTER20 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 482
    20.1Keyissues
    Industrysneedforwaterhasnotfundamentally
    changed,butithasbecomemorecriticaloverrecent
    decades.Theissuesinvolvedarethesupplyofand
    demandforwater,theuseandconsumptionofwater,
    andwastewaterdischarge,allkeyissuesforthe
    industrytobeprotableinthecontextofenviron-
    mentalsustainability.
    20.1.1Waterquantity
    Onaglobalscale,industryusesrelativelylittlewater
    incomparisontotheagriculturesector,butitdoesre-
    quireanaccessible,reliablesupplyofconsistentand
    acceptablequality.Dataindicatethatapproximately
    20%oftheworldsfreshwaterwithdrawalsareused
    byindustry,butthisgurevarieswidelyfromregion
    toregion(UNEP,2008)(Figure20.1).Theavailable
    datagenerallycombineindustryandenergyuse;ithas
    beenestimatedthatonlyabout30to40%ofthisuse
    isforactualindustryandthebalanceisusedinvarious
    formsofpowergeneration(Shiklomanov,1999).
    Thedemandforwaterisexpectedtoincreaseinparal-
    lelwithpopulationgrowthandmaybeevenexceedit
    (PacicInstitute,2004).Watermanagementinindus-
    tryisconsideredintermsofwithdrawalsandcon-
    sumption.Thisisexpressedas:
    Water Withdrawal = Water Consumption + Efuent
    Discharge (Grobicki, 2007)
    Thetotalwaterwithdrawalfromsurfacewaterand
    groundwaterbyindustryisusuallymuchgreaterthan
    theamountofwaterthatisactuallyconsumed(WWAP,
    2006,ch.8).Improvedwatermanagementisgener-
    allyreectedinoveralldecreasedwaterwithdrawal
    orusebyindustry.Thismakesobvioustheconnec-
    tionbetweenincreasedproductivityanddecreased
    consumptionandefuentdischarge.Indeed,ifdis-
    chargebecomeszerothenthewatercomponentofin-
    creasedwaterproductivityissolelyafunctionofwater
    consumption.
    20.1.2Waterquality
    Itisnotuncommonforindustrytousehigherquality
    waterthanitrequires,oftenbecausethereisacon-
    venientlylocatedlocalsupplyeitheranaturalsource
    (groundwater,ariveroralake)orasuitablemunici-
    palservice.Wateroflesserqualitymaybeadequate
    formanyindustries,allowingtheuseofrecycledand
    reclaimedwaterfromothersources.Conversely,some
    industriessuchasfoodprocessinghaverequirements
    moredemandingthanthosefordrinkingwater.The
    pharmaceuticalandhightechnologyindustriesrequire
    veryhighqualitywaterandfurthertreatthewater
    fromtheirprimarysupplies.
    Thewaterqualityofefuentdischargesisalsoimpor-
    tanttoindustryaspollutioncanafectlargevolumes
    offreshwater.Whilestatisticsshowthatindustry,in
    themacroview,isnotnecessarilytheworstpolluter
    intermsofconcentrationsandloads,itsefectscan
    beverysignicant,particularlyonregionalandlocal
    scales(WorldBank,2010,g.3.6).Industrialcontami-
    nationtendstobemoreconcentrated,moretoxicand
    hardertotreatthanotherpollutants.Thepersistence
    ofthesecontaminantswithrespecttotheirdegrada-
    tionandrateofmovementthoughtheenvironment
    andhydrologicalcycleisoftenlengthy.
    20.1.3Waterproductivityandprot
    Industryneedstomaximizeeconomicoutputandprof-
    ityetusewaterefcientlyandwisely.Themeasureof
    waterproductivityishowmuchdollarvaluecanbeob-
    tainedfromeachcubicmetreofwaterused(Grobicki,
    2007;WorldBank,2010,g.3.5).Figuresrangefrom
    welloverUS$100tolessthanUS$10percubicmetre
    dependingonthecountry(WWAP,2009,ch.7).As
    technologyimproves,industrialwaterproductivityin-
    creases.Lowproductivitymayindicatethatwateris
    undervaluedorissimplyabundant.Highproductivity
    islinkedtohighreuseaswithdrawalsarereduced.
    Thevirtualwatercontentofindustrialproductsisan-
    otherwaytoviewhowmuchwaterisbeingusedin
    industry.Virtualwateristhevolumeoffreshwater
    consumedinallstepsoftheproductionprocess.Itis
    usuallyconsiderablymorethantheactualwatercon-
    tainedintheproduct.Theglobalaveragevirtualwater
    contentofindustrialproductsis80LperUS$required
    toproducethecommodity(HoekstraandChapagain,
    2007).However,intheUnitedStates(USA)thenum-
    beris110L;inGermanyandtheNetherlandsitisabout
    50L;andinJapan,AustraliaandCanadaitisonly
    1015L.Inlargedevelopingnations,suchasChinaand
    India,theaveragenumberis2025LperUS$.
    20.1.4Cleanerproductionandsustainability
    Thereisaneedtobreaktheparadigmofindustrial
    growthlinkedtoenvironmentaldamageandtodecou-
    pleindustrialdevelopmentfromenvironmentaldeg-
    radation.Atafundamentallevelthisinvolvescleaner
    productionandsustainability.Cleanerproductionhas
    WWDR4 483 FRESHWATERFORINDUSTRY
    FIGURE 20.1
    Globalfreshwaterusebysectoratthebeginningofthetwenty-rstcentury
    Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater-use-by-sector-at-the-beginning-of-the-2000s, by P. Rekacewicz,
    based on data from the World Resources Institute).
    %
    %
    %
    Agriculture
    Pacic
    Ocean
    Atlantic
    Ocean
    Indian
    Ocean
    Pacic
    Ocean
    Industry
    Pacic
    Ocean
    Atlantic
    Ocean
    Indian
    Ocean
    Pacic
    Ocean
    Domestic use
    Pacic
    Ocean
    Pacic
    Ocean
    Atlantic
    Ocean
    Indian
    Ocean
    0 to 16
    16 to 31
    31 to 47
    47 to 63
    63 to 79
    79 to 100
    0 to 16
    16 to 32
    32 to 48
    48 to 64
    64 to 80
    80 to 100
    0 to 15
    15 to 30
    30 to 45
    45 to 60
    60 to 81
    CHAPTER20 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 484
    manyfacets,andoneofitsmainobjectivesistomove
    towardszerodischarge.Zerodischargechangesthe
    balanceofthewaterproductivityequationandisa
    keyconceptinmatchingwaterqualitytouse(WWAP,
    2006).Inmovingtowardszerodischarge,anattempt
    ismadetoconvertwastewaterstreamsintouseful
    inputsforotherindustriesandindustrialclusters.It
    seekstondauseforallefuentsthatwouldother-
    wisebedischargedbyrecyclingthemorsellingthem
    toanotheruser.Ifanindustryapproachesthisgoal
    thenitsoverallwaterconsumptionwillequalitswith-
    drawal.Practically,thismeansthatwithdrawalwillde-
    creasetomeetconsumption.
    Thehydrologicalcycleincludessignicantindustrialin-
    tervention,suchasefuentdischargeintosurfacewater
    bodies,theinltrationofcontaminantsintoground-
    water,andtheatmosphericdistributionandfalloutof
    contaminantsintowaterbodies(Figure20.2).Loopsof
    recycledandreclaimedwaterareincludedinthehydro-
    logicalcycle.Recycledandreclaimedwatermayrejoin
    thecycleaftermuchdelayorperhapsnever,ifzerodis-
    chargebecomesareality.Zeroefuentdischargeisthe
    ultimategoalforwaterquality(WWAP,2006).
    20.2Externaldrivers
    Thewaterneedofindustryisstronglyinuencedby
    externaldriversthataddalayerofuncertaincomplex-
    itytocorporatewatermanagement.Theseexternal
    driversoftenactinanindirectwaythroughachain
    reaction,withmanyconsequences.Theyareessen-
    tiallyrecentphenomenaand,althoughtheirimpacts
    onwaterareevident,theirexactefectsareunpredict-
    able.Theproblemismagniedbecausemorethanone
    factormaypressureadriver,therelationshipsbetween
    factorsanddriversareinteractiveandchanging,and
    theserelationshipsaredifculttocontrol.Theexternal
    driversdiscussedbelowappeartobethemostinuen-
    tialforindustry.Otherdriverssuchasecosystemstress,
    societalvalues,andsecurity,whileimportant,tendto
    bemorelocalinnature.
    20.2.1Economicforces
    Economicgrowthanddevelopmentarethemaindriv-
    ersofthechallengetowaterresources(2030Water
    ResourcesGroup,2009).Economicforcesafectwater,
    butatthesametimethestateofwaterresourcesinu-
    encestheeconomy,andwaterisseenasbothathreat
    andaconstrainttoeconomicgrowth(WWAP,2009).
    FIGURE 20.2
    WaterprolefortheCanadianforestproductsindustry(millionm
    3
    peryear)
    Source: NCASI (2010, g. 2.1, p.2)




    precipitation
    Forets(managed)
    Non-bre
    rawmaterials
    Manufacturing
    Products
    evapotranspiration
    surfacewaterrunofand
    groundwaterrecharge
    waterin
    wood
    surface
    water
    groundwater
    recycle
    otherwater
    inputs
    waterin
    products
    tosurface
    watercycle
    toground
    watercycle
    evaporation waterin
    solidresiduals
    disposal
    evaporation
    Water
    resourcecycle
    WWDR4 485 FRESHWATERFORINDUSTRY
    Concernswereexpressedatthe2009DavosWorld
    EconomicForumthattheworldismovingtowater
    bankruptcyandthatthisisoneoftheworldsmost
    pressingproblems(TSG,2009).
    Competition for water resources
    Industrywillnditselfcompetingmoreandmorefor
    limitedwaterresourcesasdemandandconsump-
    tionincreaseinallareas.ThePacicInstitute(2007,
    p.7,referencingFAO,2007)states,accordingtothe
    UnitedNations,ifpresentconsumptionpatternscon-
    tinue,two-thirdsoftheworldspopulationwilllive
    inwater-stressedconditionsbytheyear2025.Lack
    ofwaterisalreadyamajorconstrainttoindustrial
    growthinChina,IndiaandIndonesia(PacicInstitute,
    2007).Furtherdemographicpressureisresultingfrom
    globalization,whichwithitsaccompanyingmoveof
    labourindustriesfromhigh-incometolow-income
    countries,iscreatinghighwaterdemandoutsideofits
    abundantsources,ofteninurbanareas(WWAP,2003,
    ch.9,p.244).Agriculture,thebiggestsingleuserof
    waterbyfar,willremainthebiggestcompetitorforthis
    resource,potentiallyinconictwithindustry.
    The valuation of water
    Underlyingthecompetitionforwateristheconcept
    thatitisaneconomicgoodandthussubjecttomar-
    ketforcesintermsofitscost.Figure20.3,forexample,
    depictsthecostcomponentsinmanufacturingindus-
    triesinCanada.Balancedagainsttheeconomicgood
    notionisthebeliefthataccesstowaterisahuman
    right.Therefore,therearecompetingtrendsoffull-
    costpricingofwaterversusmorecustomarysubsidies
    oressentiallyfreewater.
    Privatization of water supply and treatment
    Superimposedonthedebateoverthevalueofwater
    istheincreasingtrendtowardsprivatizationofwater
    supplyandtreatmentwhichmayalsoincludethe
    managementandownershipofwatersystemspartic-
    ularlyinhighincomecountries(PacicInstitute,2004).
    Financial crises
    Theforecastsforrecoverytimefromthe2008global
    nancialcrisisvarygreatly,asdothepredictionsfor
    thesuccessoftherecovery.Financialplanninginsuch
    circumstancesofuncertaintyisdifcultandmaybe
    veryshortterm.Moreover,asaresultofthecrisis,the
    dynamicsoftheworldeconomymaychangesubstan-
    tially.Thereisagrowingrecognitionofwatersvalue
    intheglobalnancialinfrastructureanditisfeltthat
    investmentsinwaterwillbelessafectedthanother
    investmentsbythecurrentnancialcrisis(TSG,2009).
    Intimesofcrisis,governments,primarilyindeveloped
    countries,resorttodecitspendingandmuchofthe
    moneygoestoinfrastructure.Thisspendingmaybe
    benecialtoindustrybecausethedesignandcon-
    structionofinfrastructureforwatermanagementand
    treatmentthatismoreefcientshouldprovidecon-
    denceinadequatesuppliesofgoodqualitywater.On
    aglobalscale,thepursuitofcostsavingswilldrivein-
    dustrytondmoreeconomicalwaysofoperating;one
    optionistheoptimizationofresourcesthroughthe
    adoptionofadvancedtechnologiesandpracticesthat
    leadtozerodischarge.
    Trade
    Tradeisadriverforindustryandwaterthroughmulti-
    lateralenvironmentalagreements(MEAs)andinterna-
    tionalstandards.MEAs,suchastheBaselConvention,
    areusedtocontrolinternationaltradeforenvironmental
    reasonsandwereoriginallydevisedtoprotectdevelop-
    ingcountriesfromtheactivitiesofdevelopedcountries.
    However,tradefromdevelopingcountriesnowfaces
    thehurdleofmeetingtherequirementsofthedevel-
    opedcountries.TheserequirementsincludeISOcerti-
    cations,environmentalmanagementsystems(EMS)
    andcorporatesocialresponsibility(CSR).Thesehave,
    inturn,ledtoproductmanufacturingstandards,which
    includeenergyefciencyandclimatechange(carbon
    FIGURE 20.3
    WatercostsinCanadianmanufacturingindustries
    bycostcomponent,2005
    Source: Statistics Canada (2007).
    Intake treatment
    11%
    Recirculation
    11%
    Discharge
    treatment
    11%
    Acquisition
    49%
    CHAPTER20 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 486
    footprint)requirements,andtheseafectindustrialwa-
    teruse.Industryindevelopingcountriesisfacingstricter
    requirementsandsomecontrolbythemultinational
    companiestowhichtheysupplytheirgoods.Abenet
    forindustriesinthesecountriesisthebettermanage-
    ment,includingofwater,suchrequirementsnecessitate,
    andtheresultingincreasedefciency.
    Watertradeistypicallyalocalissue,becauseitisnot
    practicabletotransportwaterinbulkoverlargedis-
    tances.However,theconceptofvirtualwaterputs
    watertradeonaglobalscale.Virtualwatertradeis
    tradeingoodsandservicesthatconsumeaconsider-
    ableamountofwateroftenintheirproductionand
    usuallylesssointheirproduct.Itisatoolfordeter-
    miningthemovementofwaterthroughinternational
    trade(WWAP,2009,ch.2,p.35).Therefore,while
    internationaltradecanaggravatewaterstress,itcan
    alsorelieveitthroughvirtualwatertrade.Ithasbeen
    estimatedthatvirtualwateraccountsfor40%oftotal
    waterconsumptionandthat20%ofthisvirtualwater
    isinindustrialproducts(WWAP,2009,box2.1).The
    stateofacountryswaterresourcescanbeimproved
    ormadeworseifgoodswithalargewaterfootprint
    areexportedorimported.
    Howeverattractivethetradeofvirtualwateris,there
    aresomeimportantconstraints(TSG,2009).Ithas
    beensuggestedthatthistradestronglyreectstrade
    inagriculturalproducts,whichhavelargewaterfoot-
    prints(GWI,2008).Consequently,developingcoun-
    trieswithlittleindustrybutmanysmallfarmerswill
    exportwaterandindustrializedcountries,regardless
    oftheirnaturalresources,willimportwaterinfood.
    Reversingthisowofvirtualwaterisnotpracticable
    asyoucannottellpeasantfarmersinNorthAfrica,
    IndiaorNorth-EastChinathattheyshouldgiveup
    theirlandandbecomeadvertisingexecutivesorbank
    clerksbecausethoseprofessionsuselesswater(GWI,
    2008).Thesituationismademorecomplexwherean
    industrializedcountrysuchastheUSAisalsoamajor
    agriculturalexporter.
    20.2.2Climatechange
    Climatechangeisafundamentaldriverafectingwater
    availability(supplyside)andinturnitpressuresdemand
    sidedriversforwater.Theresultingpressureonindustry
    istheneedtosecureandmaintainanadequatewater
    supply.Fulllingthisneedwillbecomeincreasinglydif-
    cultwiththeunpredictablelocationandtimingofclimate
    changeimpacts.Itcouldhappenthatmanyindustrialized
    countries,whicharefoundinthemid-latitudesandthe
    NorthernHemisphere,willhavetheirsuppliescome
    understress.Competitionamonguserswillintensifyin
    someregionswhenexistingadequatesuppliesbecome
    scarce.Asaresult,industrymayneedtorelocate.
    Conversely,somelowerincomecountries,whichare
    oftenunderwaterstressatpresent,mayndtheir
    supplyincreases.Inmanycasesmultinationalcorpora-
    tionshavealreadyrelocatedtolowerincomecoun-
    triestotakeadvantageofcheaperlabourwithmore
    waterintheseareasthetrendmightbeexpectedto
    continueandincrease,thoughimprovementsinwater
    infrastructurewillberequiredtotakeadvantageofin-
    creasedsupply.Anindirectbenetfromtheincreased
    industrialpresencemaybeimprovedmanufactur-
    ingqualityandlabourconditionsandbetter-protect-
    edecosystems,asthemarketsfortheirproductsare
    mainlyinhigherincomecountrieswithdemandingen-
    vironmentalstandardsandlabourlaws.
    20.2.3Technologicalinnovation
    Technologicalinnovationappliestothequalityofboth
    watersupplyandtreatmentofwastewaterinindustry,
    whichhaveadirectbearingoncleanerproductionand
    sustainability.Theconstrainttotreatmenttoachieve
    highqualitywateriscostratherthantechnicalcapa-
    bility.Revolutionarytechnologicalbreakthroughsthat
    willtransformthetreatmentofwaterseemunlikely,
    buttherehavebeenmanyincrementaltechnological
    advancesandcontinualcostreduction(TSG,2009).
    Theideaistocommissionthemosteconomicsystem
    forthelevelofqualityrequired.
    20.2.4Policiesandgovernance,lawsandnance
    Atalllevelsofgovernmentpolicies,strategiesand
    regulationsconcerningwaterhaveadirectbearingon
    industryandarebackstoppedfrequentlybyeconomic
    measures.Industrycantosomeextentinuencegov-
    ernment,butitisonlyonestakeholderintheprocess
    ofdevisingwaterpolicy,aprocessthathasmanycom-
    petinginterestsanddrivers.Governmentinitiatives
    formavarietyofcarrotandstickapproachesthatwill
    eitherencourageorforceindustriesintomoreenviron-
    mentallysustainablepractices.However,well-inten-
    tionedgovernmentstrategiescaninhibitprogress;for
    example,wasteregulationsintheUSApreventwaste
    transferinindustrialclusters(Das,2005).
    WWDR4 487 FRESHWATERFORINDUSTRY
    20.2.5 Public input into water policy
    Publicinvolvementindecisionsoverwaterresources
    andpolicyisincreasing(PacicInstitute,2004,2007).
    Suchdecisionsmayafectthelivesofmanypeople
    andthustheirinputisimportant.Protests,opposition
    toprojectsandglobalization,andwatercontroversies
    arebecomingmorecommon.Withthemediainvolved,
    badpublicityoverwatercanafectbusinessinavery
    negativeway.Industrymuststrategicallythinkabout
    andplanitsneedforwatertoavoiddisputesand
    confrontation.
    20.3Principalrisksanduncertainties
    Inthepast,waterwasnotseenasanuncertaincom-
    ponentoftheprocessofthesuccessfulandprot-
    ableoperationofanindustry;itwastakensomewhat
    forgrantedthatsupplywouldbeeasyandrelatively
    cheaptosecure.Dischargesofwastewaterpresented
    moreofachallengebut,providingstandardsweremet,
    efuentwaspermissible.Therecentnumberofnew
    externaldriversonwateranditsmanagementhasnow
    madewateruseamuchriskierpropositionforindustry
    (Figure20.4).Torunanindustrywell,waterisrequired
    intherightquantity,intherightquality,attheright
    place,attherighttimeandattherightprice(Payne,
    2007).Allthesefactorsarenowsubjecttogreater
    uncertainty.
    20.3.1Reliablesupply
    Waterscarcityisseenasanincreasingbusinessrisk
    andthesecurityofsupplytoindustryisdependent
    onsufcientresources(2030WaterResourcesGroup,
    2009)(Figure20.5).Thissituationiscompoundedby
    geographicalandseasonalvariations,whicharenow
    moreunpredictable,andperhapsunderestimated,be-
    ingsubjecttotherisksassociatedwithclimatechange,
    whichchallengesthetraditionalassumptionthatpast
    hydrologicalexperienceprovidesagoodguidetofu-
    tureconditions(IPCC,2008,p.5).
    Thissituationthenleadsintowaterallocationandthe
    competingneedsforwaterinaregion,whichmaybe
    beyondthecontrolofindustry.Thisisespeciallytrue
    intransboundarywatersituationswheretheneedsof
    twoormorecountriesmayconict.
    FIGURE 20.4
    Inter-relationshipofwaterrisksbetweenbusiness,governmentandsociety
    Source: SABMiller and WWF-UK (2009, g. 2, p. 5), courtesy of SABMiller/WWF (refer to www.SABMILLER.com/water).
    operationalrisk

    reputationalrisk

    regulatoryrisk
    BUSINESS
    RISK
    CIVILSOCIETYRISK
    GOVERNMENTRISK
    PHYSICAL
    WATERFAILURE
    primarywaterresource
    shortage,degradation
    orooding

    secondarywatersupply
    andwaterwastefailure
    SOCIAL,
    ECONOMIC,
    ECOLOGICAL
    IMPACTS
    CHAPTER20 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 488
    anytreatmentintousablewatersupply(WWAP,n.d.).
    Therefore,thereisconsiderablepressureonindustryto
    cleanupitsefuentandwhilecompliancewilldoubt-
    lessbecomestricterandmoreonerous,theactual
    criteriaandseverityofstandardswillvaryfromjuris-
    dictiontojurisdiction.Theassociatedriskisthatofin-
    vestmentinnewtreatmenttechnologywhichmaybe
    obsoletewithinafewyears.Industrialaccidentssuch
    asuncontrolleddischargesmayresultfromeconomic
    andotherdriverstomoveaheadquickly,possiblywith
    unproventechnologyandinsensitivelocations.Water
    qualityissuesthereforepresentrestrictionsonindus-
    trialexpansion.
    20.3.3Supplychaindisruptions
    Theincreasinginterestinwaterfootprintshighlights
    theimportanceofthesupplychainindeliveringthe
    necessaryrawmaterialsandotheritemsthatanin-
    dustryneedstofunction(Figure20.6).Thelinksinthe
    supplychainaresubjecttoexternaldriversandrisks
    associatedwithareliablesupplyofwaterforeach
    industryinvolvedinthesupplychain.Asignicant
    breakinthischaincanresultingreatdifcultiesforan
    20.3.2 Adequate quality
    Waterqualityrisksassociatedwithbothsupplyand
    dischargeafectindustry.Manyindustriesrequirehigh
    qualitywaterandmayusepre-treatmentbecausenatu-
    ralsourcesofwaterareincreasinglylikelytobepolluted.
    Itisestimatedthat40%ofUSriversand75%ofChinese
    riversareheavilypolluted,andthatriverwaterinthe
    USmaybereusedupto20timesbeforeitreachesthe
    sea(TSG,2009).Groundwaterisbeingoverexploited,
    contaminationisincreasing,andsaltwaterintrusionis
    resultingfromgroundwateroverdraftincoastalregions.
    Industryisexposedtotheserisksandthecostsassoci-
    atedwithcombatingthem.Therewillbemorereliance
    onreusingreclaimedorrecycledwaterinthefuture,
    andinthiscontext,thereisclearlyaneedtoimprove
    thematchbetweenwaterqualityanduse.
    Wastewaterdischargeregulationsandstandardspre-
    sentriskstoindustry.Indevelopedcountriesthereare
    pre-treatmentrequirementsbeforeefuentcanbe
    senttomunicipaltreatmentplantsordischargedto
    watercourses.Indevelopingcountries,itisestimated
    that70%ofindustrialwastesaredischargedwithout
    FIGURE 20.5
    Aggregatedglobalgapbetweenexistingaccessible,reliablesupplyand2030waterwithdrawals,assumingno
    efciencygains
    1
    Existing supply which can be provided at 90% reliabillity, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure investments scheduled through
    2010; net of environmental requirements.
    2
    Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI.
    3
    Based on GPD, population projections and agricultural production projections from IFPRI; considers no water productivity gains between
    20052030.
    Source: 2030 Water Resources Group (2009, p. 6) (the Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand model; agricultural production based on
    IFPRI IMPACT-WATER base case).
    Existing
    accessible,
    reliable,
    sustainable
    supply
    1
    Existing
    withdrawals
    2
    2030
    withdrawals
    3
    Basinswith
    decits
    Basinswith
    surpluses
    4,500
    900
    3,100
    4,500
    6,900
    3,500
    4,200
    1,500
    600 700
    800
    Groundwater
    Surfacewater
    Relevantsupplyquantityis
    muchlowerthanthe
    absoluterenewablewater
    availablityinnature
    Agriculture
    Industry
    Municipaland
    domestic
    2,800
    -40% 2%
    CAGR
    Billionm
    3
    ,154basins/regions
    100
    WWDR4 489 FRESHWATERFORINDUSTRY
    industry.Suchrisks,withseveralfactorscominginto
    play,areverydifculttoaccommodateandmakecon-
    tingencyplansfor.
    20.3.4Governmentandwatermanagement
    Itisthepracticeofgovernmentstosettheirown
    policieswithrespecttowater,basedonmultifaceted
    agendasofparticularconcernsfromthenationalto
    locallevels.Prioritieschangeandthisvariationand
    unpredictabilitymakesitparticularlydifcultforin-
    dustry,especiallyglobalcompanies,tolocatesuc-
    cessfullytosomecountries.Thesituationisespe-
    ciallydifcultifregulationschangeafteracompany
    hasstartedoperations.Assuch,companiesmustbe
    proactiveintheirefortstoanticipatetheseuncertain
    situationsandtakemeasurestoaddresstheminad-
    vance.Thegovernmentperceptionofwaterriskmay
    beatoddswithindustry.Poorpolicyanddecisions
    mayleadtooverutilizationofwaterresourcesinex-
    istinglocationsandunderutilizationinothers.Inaddi-
    tion,iftheanti-industrybiasofsomegovernments,
    particularlyinthelightofenvironmentalactivism,is
    addedtothenewandemergingroleofthepublic,
    withitsownagendainwatermanagement,theout-
    comesareveryuncertain.
    20.4Challengeareas
    Themainchallengetoindustryishowtoremainviable
    byproperlyrespondingtoallthenewwaterresource
    driverstheirunusualpressures,theirheightenedlev-
    elsofuncertaintyandtheirassociatedrisks.
    20.4.1Adaptingtowaterscarcity
    Waterscarcityisprobablythemostpressingchal-
    lengeforindustry.Bridgingthewatergapwillbea
    FIGURE 20.6
    Theproductionchainforcotton
    Note: The average water footprint of printed cotton (e.g. a pair of jeans weighing 1 kg) is 11,000 L per kg.
    Source: Mekonnen and Hoekstra (2010).
    Production chain
    cotton
    4029 m/ton
    9113 m/ton
    1332 m/ton
    9113 m/ton
    10000 m/ton
    9588 m/ton
    9504 m/ton
    1677 m/ton
    2517 m/ton
    9460 m/ton
    3957 m/ton 3957 m/ton
    860 m/ton
    2602 m/ton
    Green
    57%
    Blue
    32%
    Grey
    11% 1
    Green
    54%
    Blue
    33%
    Grey
    13%
    CHAPTER20 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 490
    majordifculty,andimprovedefciencytomeetde-
    mandandbusiness-as-usualforsupplyapproaches
    areexpectedtollonlyapproximately40%ofthegap
    (2030WaterResourcesGroup,2009)(Figure20.7).
    Scarcitymaynotonlybesimplylackofwaterbutalso
    inadequatedeliveryduetopoorinfrastructureorwater
    management.Tiedintothiseconomicshortageare
    ancillarychallengessuchasensuringindustryaccess
    incompetitivesituationswhilenotcomingintocon-
    ictwithlocalcommunities(PacicInstitute,2007).
    Resultingallocationsmaybeconstraintstondsites
    forsourcing,productionandretailactivities,particu-
    larlyforthoseindustriesusinglargequantitiesofwater
    orneedinghighqualitywater.
    Meeting basic water needs
    Thefailureofsomegovernmentsindevelopingcoun-
    triestoprovidebasicwaterneedsfortheirpopulation
    placesindustryinadifcultpositionwithrespectto
    thoseneedsonahumanrightsbasis(PacicInstitute,
    2004).Thechallengeistobalancepublicandprivate
    benets.Manyquestionshavebeenraisedaboutthe
    responsibilitiesofcompaniestoprovideorimprove
    waterforbasicneedswhileusingwaterfortheirown
    purposes.Therearerisksaroundthisissuetoacom-
    panysreputationaswellastopotentialnancingfrom
    internationalagenciesandinstitutions.
    Determining water budgets
    Waterscarcityforcesindustrytounderstandhow
    muchwateritreallyneeds.Toincreasetheefciency
    ofwateruseinafacility,itisnecessarytoknowits
    waterbudgetandparticularlyitslosses.Thisisthe
    baselineforwatersavings.Industrymustknowitsown
    waterbalancetheratiooftheinputofwatertothe
    outputofwater(Figure20.8).Thusthechallengefor
    industryistoestablishitswaterfootprintorproleto
    seewhereefcienciesmaybeachieved.Thisisde-
    pendentongooddataandaconsistentapproachto
    measurementandmonitoring.
    Thecombinedchallengesofwaterscarcityandwa-
    terqualitygenerateanassociatedchallenge:howto
    increasewaterproductivityandpreventpollution.
    Waterproductivityappearstodecreasewithtotal
    waterconsumption,andeconomicgrowthusually
    comesthroughincreasedconsumptionratherthan
    byincreasedproductivity(WWAP,2003).Thefocal
    pointofthischallengeishowtomovetozerodis-
    charge.Thechallengeofwaterproductivityistodo
    morewithless;inotherwords,tomakeeverydrop
    count.Ifindustryistoreactpositivelytopollution
    prevention,particularlyintoughregulatoryregimes,
    thencleanerproductionandzerodischargeare
    FIGURE 20.7
    Business-as-usualapproacheswillnotmeetdemandforrawwater
    1
    Based on historical agricultural yield growth rates from 1990-2004 from FAOSTAT, agricultural and industrial efciency improvements from
    IFPRI.
    2
    Total increased capture of raw water through infrastructure buildout, excluding unsustainable extraction.
    3
    Supply shown at 90% reliability and includes infrastructure investments scheduled and funded through 2010. Current 90%-reliable supply does
    not meet avarege demand.
    Source: 2030 Water Resources Group (2009, p. 7) (based on the Global Water Supply and Demand model, IFPRI and FAOSTAT).
    Demandwithnoproductivity
    improvements
    8,000
    7,000
    6,000
    5,000
    3,000
    Historicalimprovements
    inwaterproductivity
    1
    Existingaccessible
    reliablesupply
    3
    Remaininggap
    Increaseinsupply
    2
    under
    business-as-usual
    Portionofgap
    20%
    60%
    20%
    Today
    2
    2030
    Billionm
    3
    WWDR4 491 FRESHWATERFORINDUSTRY
    principalobjectives.Similarly,closed-loopproduc-
    tionsystemcanoferindustriesanotheroptionfor
    pollutionprevention.Individualindustriescanobtain
    economicandenvironmentalbenetsfromapply-
    ingthisprincipleintheiroperations;howeveritis
    bestachievedthroughindustrialeco-parks,where
    industriesfromverydiversesectorscanmakeuseof
    by-products,traditionallyconsideredaswaste,from
    otherindustriesintotheirproductionprocess,there-
    byreducingcostsinrawmaterialsand/orreducing
    treatmentanddisposalcost(Figure20.9).
    Thechallengesinwaterproductivityareexpressed
    onageographicalbasisinthedisparitybetweenhigh
    andlowincomecountries(WWAP,2003,ch.9).High
    incomeusershavebetterwaterproductivitythanlow
    incomeusers,andwhilewaterproductivityoflowin-
    comeuserscanequalthatofhighincomeusers,itis
    generallyonlyonasmallscale.Aslowincomecoun-
    triestendtobeinareasofwaterscarcity,andthis
    scarcityhasbecomemoreunpredictablewithclimate
    change,thechallengeofwaterproductivitycorre-
    spondinglybecomesevengreater.
    The cost of water
    Industryisconditionedtopaylittleforwater,butin-
    creasingscarcitywillresultinhighercharges,towhich
    willbeaddedhigherchargesfortreatmentanddis-
    charge.Somecountrieshavealreadyimplementeda
    diferentpricestructureforindustrypayingmoreper
    unitthanthepublicandpayingincreasingamountsper
    unitasmorewaterisused.Theseimpactsonindustry
    willnaturallyforcearesponsetowardsgreaterefcien-
    cyofwateruse,astheeconomicrealitiesofthecostof
    waterwillincreaseproductioncosts.Theseefectswill
    haverepercussionsintheindustrializationtakingplace
    indevelopingcountries,wherewaterisfrequentlyata
    premium,andtheymayinuencethelocationofnew
    plants.
    FIGURE 20.8
    RioTintoswaterbalance(2009)
    1
    Including onsite impounded/imported surface, onsite/imported ground water (including dewatering) and marine water
    2
    Including process efuent, dewatering water discharged without use and non process water
    3
    Including mining (dewatering), milling, washing, power generation, dust suppression etc.
    4
    Tailings, sewage or water contaminated in process that has been treated for reuse
    5
    The diference between total water input and total water output is changed-in storage.

    1 GL = 1 gigalitre of water (1 billion litres)
    Source: Rio Tinto (n.d.a).
    Waterwithdrawn
    1
    1,162GL
    Waterinorethatis
    proccessed383GL
    Importedrecycled
    water0.5GL
    Watersupplieddirectlytoothers50GL
    Waterreturn
    2
    141,800GL
    Evaporationand
    seepage612GL
    Entrainedin
    productorprocess
    waste63GL
    Senttothirdparties
    7GL
    Townsupply,
    exportorpastoral
    use50GL
    Divertedwaterusedforgenerationorhydroelectricpower140,833GL
    Divertedwateraroundminingandprocessingsites109GL
    Wateruseonsite
    PrccesswaterCL
    3
    PecycIedwaterCL
    4
    Changeinstcrageduring
    year6GL
    Waterinput Wateroutput Watersupplied Wateruse
    W
    a
    t
    e
    r

    i
    n
    p
    u
    t

    1
    4
    2
    ,
    4
    8
    8

    G
    L
    W
    a
    t
    e
    r

    o
    u
    t
    p
    u
    t

    1
    4
    2
    ,
    4
    8
    8

    G
    L
    CHAPTER20 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 492
    Small and medium-sized enterprises in low income
    countries
    Theeconomicimportanceofsmallandmediumenter-
    prises(SMEs)inlowincomecountriesiswellknown.
    However,thegeographicallocationoftheSMEsoften
    causesadditionalstressonalreadystressedlocalsup-
    pliesofwater.Theconceptsofwaterproductivityand
    cleanerproductionareeitherunknownorsidelinedin
    theeforttomakegoodsandprovidejobs.However,
    thedownsideisthatthemarketsfortheSMEsgoods,
    whichareofteninhighincomecountries,haverequire-
    mentsthatthemanufactureofgoodstheyimportbe
    environmentallysustainable.Thiscreatesasituation
    wheresurvivaloftheseSMEsisdependentonthe
    proper,productiveandenvironmentallyfriendlyuseof
    wateraconsiderablechallengerequiringthemeans
    andtheknow-howtomoveforwards.
    20.4.2Changingmanagementparadigms
    Notwithstandingthechallengespresentedbyuncer-
    tainwaterissues,businessandindustryisstillcharged
    withmakingaprotandreturnoninvestment.Actions
    takentomeetthisgoalmustbecarriedoutinthe
    contextofcorporate,socialandenvironmentalre-
    sponsibility.Thechallengeisnottoworkinisolation
    fromgovernment,thepublicandotherstakeholders,
    buttoturnthesituationintoawinwinone.Thereare
    subchallengessuchasobtainingnancing,investing
    innewtechnology,andimprovingthereliabilityand
    consistencyofthedatauponwhichmanydecisions
    aremade.Thereisaneedtobecomerisksmartnot
    riskaverse.
    20.4.3Minimizingenvironmentalimpacts
    Industryhasimpactsonitsprimarysuppliesofwater
    andtheirecosystemsandthereforeithasaresponsi-
    bilitytomitigatetheseimpactsforthebenetofall
    waterusersandtheenvironment.Theseimpactscan
    beatawaterbasinortransboundaryscale.Industry
    createshotspots(sources)thatcanimpactaquifers
    andriverpathwaysthatcancrossseveralcountries
    anddischargethroughcoastalareasintolargema-
    rineecosystems.Asthedriversinvolvedbecomemore
    complex,inter-relatedandunpredictable,efectsand
    consequentchallengesmaybemagniedoverthese
    largeareas.
    20.5Opportunities
    Therearewaystoaddresstheissues,risksandchal-
    lengesofwaterproductivity,buttheyrequireimple-
    mentation.Informationwithoutactionisnotrealpro-
    gress.Theoverarchingchallengeforindustryistoplay
    itsroleinhaltingtheunsustainableexploitationand
    contaminationoffreshwaterresourcesworldwide
    (Box20.1).Inmeetingthischallengethereisan
    opportunitytoincreaseproductivity,efciencyand
    competitivenessinasustainableway.Thismaybe
    summedupasintegratedwatermanagement(IWM),
    whichtakesintoaccountcompanyrequirementsand
    theneedsandinterestsofstakeholdersandthe
    environment.ThroughanIWMapproachanindustry
    identiesandmanageswater-relatedriskandoppor-
    tunitiesthatafectsthemeitherdirectlyorindirectly,
    thisinturnallowsthemtorespondintimetochanging
    trendsandhaveabetterbusinessperformanceinthe
    longrun(CBSR,2010).
    20.5.1Managementandstrategy
    Inabroadperspective,theproblemssurroundingwa-
    terproductivityinindustryandtherelatedproblems
    surroundingwatergloballyareinter-related,notiso-
    lated,andassuchneedmanagement,astrategy,plan-
    ningandactionthatinterconnectsolutionsforgreater
    efectiveness.Overarchingtheseconsiderationsare
    theconcepts,ideasandvisionsofnewanddiferent
    waysofconsideringwateranditsusethatprovidethe
    necessaryguidancedownthechainofimplementation.
    Inmeetingitschallengesindustrymustrstlookto
    managementprioritiesandstyle,companyvaluesand
    culturetoencouragepositiveresponsefromwithinits
    FIGURE 20.9
    Theclosed-loopproductionsystem
    Source: OECD (2009, p. 10).
    Production
    Packagingand
    distribution
    Material
    sources
    Recovery
    Useand
    maintenance
    Re-use
    Re-manufacture
    Re-source
    Wastefor
    recovery
    Minimized
    rawmaterial
    extraction Minimizedwastestreams
    Naturalenvironment
    WWDR4 493 FRESHWATERFORINDUSTRY
    ownsphere.Proactivemeasuresbyindustrywillnot
    onlyanticipatethefuturebuthelptoshapeit(Pacic
    Institute,2007).Innovation,investmentandcollabo-
    rationarekeyelements;theyrequireastrategicap-
    proachratherthantheadhocsolutionsmorecom-
    monlyfound.
    Water footprint
    Inordertodevelopatrulysuccessfulwaterstrat-
    egyindustrymusthavethenecessarydataavailable;
    tobeabletoevaluatewaterrisks,itisnecessaryto
    knowthewateruseinanindustry.Thecustomary
    approachofmasswaterbalanceisonlypartofthe
    picture;waterfootprintsorprolesareincreasingly
    beingintroducedtoestimateanindustrysrealwater
    use.Estimationoffootprintsorprolesmayinvolve
    usingawaterdiagnostictoolandwaterscenario
    planningsupports(WWAP,2009,ch.2,referencing
    WBCSD,2006).
    Thewaterfootprinttakesintoaccountalltheobvious
    watercontentinaproductaswellasthelessobvious
    inputsandusesofwaterinproductionandconsump-
    tion(virtualwater).Completewaterfootprintscanbe
    quitecomplex;forexample,theconceptofawater
    footprintforbusinessaddsontheindirectwateruse
    intheproducerssupplychain.Thusthereistheop-
    erationalwaterfootprintandthesupplychainwater
    footprint.Therearealsoconsiderationsupanddown
    thesupplychain,suchasthewaterinvolvedinagri-
    culturalrawmaterialsorend-use,ifwaterisinvolved
    inutilizingtheproduct(e.g.soap).Therefore,awater
    footprintreectsthetrueamountofwaterused,which
    maynotbeimmediatelyapparentfromlookingatthe
    endproduct.Inaddition,theecologicalorsocialim-
    pactofawaterfootprintobviouslydependsnotonlyon
    thevolumeofwateruse,butalsoonwhereandwhen
    thewaterisused(WaterFootprintNetwork,n.d.a).All
    thisknowledgecandirectstrategyforwateruseto
    increaseitsproductivity(outputperdrop)bothonthe
    supplyandthedemandsides(Box20.2).
    Risk assessment
    Indevelopingawaterstrategyacompanyneedsto
    evaluateitsexposuretowaterrisksincludinghydro-
    logical,economic,socialandpoliticalfactorsindifer-
    entgeographicalcontextsandplanfortheminits
    decision-making.
    Water strategies
    Oncetheissueshavebeenevaluatedacompanyisin
    arealisticpositiontoadoptawaterpolicy,whichis
    Inthebeerbrewingprocess,waterusageismeasuredasthetotalvolumeofwaterusedforeachvolumeunitofbeerpro-
    duced.MolsonCoorswateruseratioisabout4.55hL/hL.Waterisusedinthebrewingprocess(thequalityofbeerisdirectly
    tiedtothequalityofthewaterusedtoproduceit);forcleaningbrewkettlesandfermentingandageingtanks;inthepackag-
    inglines(forrinsingbottlesandcansbeforepackaging);andforcoolingmachinery.Alsoincludedintheequationiswater
    usedinbuildingstosupporttheneedsoftheworkforce.Thevastmajorityofcleaningandrinsingwateristreatedtomeetor
    exceedregulatedstandards,andthendischarged.Asmallpercentageislosttoevaporation.
    TheindustryhasestablishedaworkinggroupentitledtheBeverageIndustryEnvironmentalRoundtable(BIER).Formedin
    August2006,theobjectiveofthisgroupistobringtogetherleadingglobalbeveragecompaniestodeneacommonframe-
    workforstewardship,drivecontinuousimprovementinindustrypracticesandperformance,andinformpublicpolicyinthe
    areasofwaterconservationandresourceprotection,energyefciencyandclimatechangemitigation.
    MolsonCoorsscoreswaterusageateachofitsbreweriestoidentifystrategicwaysinwhichitcanuselesswaterinproduc-
    tion,thusreducingitsimpactontheenvironmentandhelpingenhancewaterssustainability.MolsonCoorshassettheglobal
    targettoimprovewaterefciencyyearoveryearby4%(20082012).Waterdataandoverallenvironmentalperformance
    dataareveriedbyanindependentthirdpartybeforepublication.
    In2009,MolsonCoorscommittedtoconductingwatershedassessmentsateachbrewerylocations.IntheUnitedKingdom
    (UK)andCanada,itcommissionedstudiesofwaterresources,wateruseandwaterdisposalateachfacilitytobefedintoits
    countrystrategiesandglobalpolicy.ThestudyinCanadacoverstheentiresupplychain,includingtheoverallimpactMolson
    hasorcouldhaveinthecommunitieswhereitoperates.
    Source: Global Compact (n.d.).
    BOX 20.1
    WaterstewardshipatMolsonCoors
    CHAPTER20 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 494
    ResearchersattheTwenteUniversityintheNetherlandsincollaborationwithCoca-ColaEnterprisesInc.(CCE)andCoca-Cola
    Europestudiedthewaterfootprintofa0.5LPETbottleofCoca-ColaproducedatCCEsDongenbottlingplantintheNetherlands.
    Theaccountingprocessbeganwithwaterusedin
    thesupplychaintoproduceingredientsandother
    components(e.g.bottles,labels,packingmaterials).
    Ingredientsincludesugarmadefromsugarbeetsgrown
    intheNetherlands,carbondioxide,caramel,phosphoric
    acidandcafeine.Thesupplychainwaterfootprintalso
    includedoverheads,whichaccountforwaterusedto
    producetheenergythatpowerstheplantsandforwa-
    terusedforbuildingmaterials,vehicles,fuel,ofcepa-
    perandotheritemsnotdirectlyrelatedtooperations.
    Waterusedinoperationsisthewaterincorporatedinto
    theproductasaningredientandwaterusedinproduc-
    tionprocesses.

    Theresults,includingallcomponents,areshowninthesecondgure.Theestimatesarethatthegreenwaterfootprintofthe
    0.5LCoca-Colabeverageis15L,thebluewaterfootprintis8Landthegreywaterfootprintis12L.
    Morethantwo-thirdsofthetotalwaterfootprintcomesfromgreenandbluewater.Thegreenandblue(consumptive)water
    footprintsareprimarilyassociatedwithsugarbeetproductioninthesupplychain.Thesugarbeetsarelargelyrainfed(green
    water)inthiswater-richtemperateclimate,butsomeexternal(blue)watersupplyisrequiredforirrigation.Greenwater
    makesupapproximatelytwo-thirdsoftheconsumptivewaterfootprintandnearlyhalfofthetotalwaterfootprint.Bluewa-
    teraccountsforapproximatelyone-quarter(ormuchlessaccordingtoasubsequentstudy)ofthetotalwaterfootprint.
    Approximatelyone-thirdofthetotalwaterfootprintisgreywater,whichisassociatedwiththesupplychain.Aportionofthe
    nitrogenappliedasfertilizertothesugarbeeteldsisreleasedtoreceivingwaters.CoolingwaterassociatedwithPETbottle
    productionresultsinathermalload,whichwasconsideredinthegreywatercomponent.
    Theoperationalwaterfootprint,0.4L,equates
    toonlyabout1%ofthetotalwaterfootprint.It
    isentirelybluewater,representingwateradded
    asaningredient.Thegreywaterfootprint
    associatedwithoperations(waterusedfor
    domesticpurposesintheDongenplant)was
    determinedtobezerobecauseallwastewater
    istreatedtomeetorexceedwastewatertreat-
    mentstandardsinapublicwastewatertreat-
    mentplantandreturnedtotheenvironment
    underTheCoca-ColaCompanysRecycle
    commitment.
    Thesupplychainoverheadwaterfootprint
    wascalculatedandfoundtobenegligible.
    Beforethestudy,therewasrecognitionthat
    theoverheadcomponentisapartoftheover-
    allwaterfootprintofaproduct,butitwasun-
    clearhowrelevantitwas.
    Source: The Coca-Cola Company and The Nature Conservancy (2010, pp. 11, 12 [gures, and pp. 11-15 text adapted]).
    BOX 20.2
    ThewaterfootprintofCoca-Cola
    Indirect water Use
    in the Supply Chain
    Direct Operational
    Water Use
    Water
    Footprint
    Bottling Plant
    Ingredients
    Packaging
    PET Bottle,
    Closure, Label,
    Tray Carton, Tray
    Shrink Film,
    Pallet Stretch
    Wrap, Pallet
    Beet Sugar,
    Phosphoric Acid,
    Caramel,
    Cafeine, C0
    2
    Cleaning, Mixing,
    Blending, Filling
    (7 litres)
    Ingredients
    (28 litres)
    Supply Chain
    Water Footprint
    Operational
    Water Footprint
    Total
    Water Footprint
    100%
    (12 litres)
    (15 litres)
    (8 litres)
    (0.4 litres)
    Packaging
    Blue |
    Grey
    20%
    Grey | 83%
    Blue
    23%
    Blue | 4%
    Blue
    28%
    Green
    43%
    Green
    52%
    Green | 13%
    Grey
    34%
    Indirectanddirectwaterfootprintcomponentsof0.5Lof
    Coca-ColainaPETbottle
    Waterfootprintof0.5LofCoca-ColainaPETbottleproducedinDongen,
    theNetherlands.Thegreenwaterfootprintreferstotheconsumptionof
    greenwaterresources(rainwaterstoredinthesoilasmoisture);theblue
    waterfootprintreferstoconsumptionofbluewatersources(surfaceand
    groundwater);andthegreywaterfootprintreferstopollutionandisde-
    nedasthevolumeoffreshwaterthatisrequiredtoassimilatetheloadof
    pollutantsbasedonexistingambientwaterqualitystandards.
    FIGURE 1
    WWDR4 495 FRESHWATERFORINDUSTRY
    likelytoembracestrategiesforeverythingfromcor-
    poratevaluestocommunication.Thesestrategiesmay
    include:
    PromotingCSRandenvironmentalsustainability
    (Figure20.10).Theseprinciplesincluderecogniz-
    ingenvironmentalinter-relationshipssuchasthose
    betweenwaterandenergyandlinkstoairemissions
    andclimatechange.
    Encouragingaparadigmshifttocradle-to-cradle
    industrialoperationsprovidingaservicetocus-
    tomerstoallowthemtouseaproductandreturn
    ittothemanufacturerforrecycling(McDonough
    andBraungart,2002;WWAP,2006,ch.8).Waste
    thenhasvalueasrawmaterialforotherproduction
    processes.
    UsingthePrecautionaryPrincipletopromoteaction,
    developoptionsandassistdecisions.
    IntroducingEMS.Thecompanycultureshouldbe
    suchthatitpromotestheuseofISO14000,best
    environmentalpractices(BEP)andbestavailable
    techniques(BAT).Internaldocumentsshouldreect
    clarityandcertaintyintheirapplicationandthey
    requireregularupdatingwiththelatestscience.A
    commitmenttocontinuousimprovementonwater
    issuesmakesastrongstatement,asdoesregularly
    reportingperformance.
    Settingmeasurablegoalsandtargetswithrespect
    towaterefciency,conservationandimpacts.
    Decouplingmaterialandenergyconsumptionand
    integratingtheneedforenergywiththerequire-
    mentsforwater.
    Communicatingfrequentlyandefectivelywiththe
    publicandlocalstakeholdersregardingtheeco-
    nomicandenvironmentalbenetsofvariousindus-
    trialpolicies,strategiesandmeasurestoincrease
    awareness,encouragecondence,andgainsup-
    portandcooperationinissuessurroundingwater
    (Marsaleketal.,2002).Successfulimplementation
    ofpoliciesdependsonaproactive,ratherthana
    reactive,responsefromindustry.Stakeholderen-
    gagementanddirectparticipationcanmoderate
    conicts.
    Collaboratingwithgovernmentagencies.Intheat-
    tempttoimplementbettermanagementandmore
    productivewaysofusingwaterinindustry,itisnot
    thetechnicalknow-howthatisthemainimpedi-
    ment,buttheframeworkwithinwhichtopromote,
    encourageandaccomplishincreasedwaterpro-
    ductivity.Alignmentofcorporatestrategywith
    local,regionalandnationalagenciesisbenecial
    (PacicInstitute,2007).Ifindustrialgrowthand
    environmentalprotectionareseenascompatible
    thenindustrymayadoptsuchmeasuresforbetter
    businessratherthancompliancereasons(WWAP,
    2003,ch.9).Benecialactionsmaythenbetaken
    ataplantorcompanyscale,withorwithoutregula-
    tions(Box20.3).
    Becominginvolvedwithorganizationssuchas
    theCEOWaterMandate(UNGlobalCompact,
    2011)theWorldBusinessCouncilforSustainable
    Development(WBCSD,2006),and,throughthe
    UnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization
    (UNIDO)sroleintheUnitedNations(UN)Global
    CompactInter-AgencyTeam,toassistparticu-
    larlyintheareaofSupplyChainandWatershed
    Management(UNGlobalCompact,2011),which
    involves:

    Encouragingandengagingsupplierstoimprove
    theirwaterconservation,qualitymonitoring,
    wastewatertreatmentandrecyclingpractices

    Buildingcapacitiestoanalyseandrespondto
    watershedrisk

    Encouragingandfacilitatingsuppliersinconduct-
    ingassessmentsofwaterusageandimpacts

    Sharingwatersustainabilitypractices
    establishedandemergingwithsuppliers
    FIGURE 20.10
    Theevolutionofsustainablemanufacturing
    conceptsandpractices
    Source: OECD (2009, p. 10).
    Cleaner
    production
    Industrialecology
    Pollutioncontrol
    Closed-loop
    production
    Life-cyclethinking
    Eco-efciency
    Synergize
    Revitalize
    Expand
    Manage
    Prevent
    Treat
    Implementationofnon-essential
    technologies
    End-of-pipesolutions
    Modifyproducts,productionmethods
    Processoptimization;lowerresource
    inputandoutput.
    Substitutionofmaterials;non-toxic
    andrenewable
    Systematicenvironmentalmanagement
    Environmentalstrategiesandmonitoring
    Environmentalmanagementsystems
    Extendingenvironmentalresponsibility
    Greensupplychainmanagement
    Corporatesocialresponsibility
    Restructingofproductionmethods
    Minimizingoreliminatingvirginmaterials
    Integratesystemsofproduction
    Environmentalpartnerships
    Eco-industrialparks
    CHAPTER20 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 496

    Encouragingmajorsupplierstoreportregularly
    onprogressachievedrelatedtogoals
    Partneringwithintergovernmentalorganizations
    suchastheUNtobenetregionsindistressand
    promoteadvancesintechnology.

    20.5.2Implementationandinnovation
    Industryhasmanyopportunitiestoaddressthechal-
    lengesitfacesandturnthemintowinwinsituations
    withothermajorstakeholderssuchasgovernments,
    intergovernmentalorganizations,non-governmental
    organizations(NGOs),theprivateinvestmentsector,
    academiaandthepublic.Inthiscontext,thefollowing
    aresomeoftheinitiativesthatindustryhasunderway
    andshouldbereinforcedandothersthatmightbe
    broughtintoplay.
    Decreasing water use and increasing water productivity
    Theobviousrststepforindustryistoreducewater
    usebyconservationandrecyclingaswellasbydis-
    chargereductionandqualityimprovement.Measures
    totheseendsinclude:
    Conductingawaterauditanddevelopingawater
    footprint.
    Usingzerodischargeandwateroptimizationtech-
    niquestodriveindustrialprocesses(Das,2005).
    Thisinvolvesintegratingsupplysideanddemand
    sideneedsandconsiderations.Zerodischargeis
    usedtonullifywaterfootprintsbyfullrecyclingand
    nowasteandchangesthebalanceofthewaterpro-
    ductivityequation(WaterFootprintNetwork,n.d.b).
    Inmovingtowardszerodischarge,wastewater
    streamsareconvertedintousefulinputsforother
    industriesandindustrialclusters.Zerodischargeis
    astep-by-stepprocessthatindustryimplements
    throughstrategiccorporateplanningleadingto
    designandimplementation.Itnotonlyinuences
    industryonalocalscale(cleanerproductionand
    increasedprots),theaccumulatedresultsalsohave
    basin,transboundaryandwiderimpacts.
    Employingwaterrecyclingandtheuseofre-
    claimedwaterwherepossibletodovetailwithzero
    discharge.
    Usingwaterlossmanagementtolocate,measure
    andrepairthesometimeshugewaterlossesfrom
    oldundergroundinfrastructure.Thismightinclude
    developmentofsurfaceleakdetectionsystems,ro-
    boticandvideopipelinemonitoringtechnologies,
    high-precisionowmonitoringandmeteringtech-
    nologies,andpipelinerehabilitationsystems(TSG,
    2009).
    Providingfullandconsistentmonitoringandreport-
    ingoftheperformanceofappliedtechnologiesused
    inindustry,intermsofbothefectivenessandcost.
    Real-timemonitoringofprocesseshasdistinctad-
    vantagesincatchingproblemsandcontamination
    earlyandaccompanyingdatamanagementsystems
    areequallyimportant(TSG,2009).
    Introducing new technology
    BATcanincursignicantcostandmaytaketime,so
    transitionperiodsarenecessaryandimplementation
    byregulationneedsathoughtfulapproach.Theob-
    jectiveistondthemostefectivetechnologythatis
    technicallyviable,canbeimplementedeconomically
    andisreasonablyaccessible.Meetingthisobjective
    mayinvolve:
    Adoptingnewgreentechnologyandincorporat-
    ingnaturaltreatmentsystems.Itisfeltbysome
    thatsimplerapproaches,suchassandltrationand
    enhancedwetlandtreatment,maybeeasierand
    cheapertoimplementthanmorecommontradition-
    altreatmenttechnologiesandmayplayasignicant
    roleinhelpingsolvethevastmajorityoftheworlds
    watershortages(TSG,2009).
    BOX 20.3
    Industrygovernmentcollaboration:RioTintoand
    theWesternAustralianWaterCorporation
    TheRioTintoHIsmeltsiteisjustsouthofPerthin
    WesternAustralia.Thenewironsmeltingtechnologyis
    moreefcientthanconventionalmethodsbutrequires
    coolingwater.Anagreementwasmadewiththestate
    waterutilitytousetreatedwastewaterratherthanobtain
    potablewaterfromthecityssystem,whichsupplieswa-
    terto1.5millionpeople.
    TheWaterCorporationwasconsideringthefeasibilityof
    buildinganefuenttreatmentplantandRioTintosofer
    tobuythetreatedwaterfortheHIsmeltfacilityensured
    enoughdemandtomakethisplantviable.Asaresult,the
    WaterCorporationwasabletocommissiontheproject.
    TheHIsmeltfacilityrunsonthecommunitysrecy-
    cledwastewater,whichisnallyevaporated.TheWater
    Corporationhasalong-termclientandRioTintohasac-
    cesstoareadysupplyofwater,cleanedandtreatedtoa
    highindustrialstandard.Moreover,localwatersupplyis
    preservedandthereisreducedefuentdischargetothe
    ocean.
    Sources: Pacic Institute (2007, p. 35); Rio Tinto (n.d.b).
    WWDR4 497 FRESHWATERFORINDUSTRY
    BOX 20.4
    UNIDOMED-TESTintegratedapproach
    MED-TESTisaUNIDOgreenindustryinitiativesupportedbytheGlobalEnvironmentFacility(GEF)andtheItalianGovernment
    toaddresspriorityhotspotsofindustrialpollutionidentiedintheMediterraneanStrategicActionPlan(SAP-MED).MED-
    TESTisacomponentoftheStrategicPartnershipfortheMediterraneanLargeMarineEcosystem(LME)oftheUnitedNations
    EnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)-MediterraneanActionPlan(MAP)aimingtosupportgovernmentsinimplementingnational
    strategiesforreducingindustrialdischarges.TheMED-TESTproject(20092011)targetsEgypt,MoroccoandTunisia,withthe
    potentialtobeextendedtoothercountriesoftheMEDregion.
    EnterprisesoftheSouthMediterranean
    Regionarefacingnumerouschallenges
    intheireforttomaintainorincrease
    theircompetitivenessonthelocalmar-
    ket,accessinternationalmarketswith
    goodqualityproducts,complywithen-
    vironmentalstandardsandreducetheir
    operationalcosts.TheMED-TESTproject
    hasbeendesignedtoassistenterprises
    indealingwiththesechallengesandin
    buildingalong-termsustainablebusi-
    nessstrategy.
    TEST(transferofenvironmentallysound
    technology)buildsonmanagementof
    changewithineachlevelofthemanage-
    mentpyramid:operational,management
    systemandstrategic.TheTESTapproach
    integratesandcombinestheessentialel-
    ementsoftraditionaltoolssuchasclean-
    erproductionassessment(CPA),envi-
    ronmentalmanagementsystems(EMS),
    environmentalmanagementaccounting
    (EMA),technologytransferandcorpo-
    ratesocialresponsibility(CSR),applied
    onthebasisofacomprehensivediagno-
    sisofenterpriseneeds(initialreview).
    Source: UNIDO (n.d.b).
    OutlineoftheMED-TESTproject
    Capacity-building
    fornationalpartners
    Nationalcapacitiesbuiltandhands-
    onexpericencegainedbylocal
    expertsonTESTintegratedapproach
    Demonstrationprojects
    atpilotindustries
    Disseminationandreplication
    atnationalandregionallevel
    Existingprocessesoptimized
    Economicbenetsandsustainabillity
    ofTESTdemonstrated
    Reductionofpolutiondischarges
    intotheMediterraneanSea
    Investmentportfolioforclean
    technology
    Amotivatedcadreofprofessionals
    fromtheSouthMediterraneanregion
    willbecomeengagedincommercially
    basedTESTreplicationactivities
    Projecttask Expectedresults
    TESTtoolsandthemanagementpyramid
    Product
    and
    services
    Operation
    Managementsystem
    Strategy
    Initial
    review
    CPA/EST
    EMS/EMA
    CSR
    Visionandmissionofthebusiness
    Stakeholdervalue
    TheintroductionoftheTESTintegrat-
    edapproachattheenterpriselevelfol-
    lowsthissequence:
    1heexistingsituationisimproved
    bybettermanagementofexisting
    processes
    1heintroductionofnewcleaner
    technology(orifnotsufcient,of
    optimizedend-of-pipesolutions)is
    considered
    1helessonslearnedfromeach1LS1
    projectsimplementationisreected
    intherespectivecompanysbusiness
    strategy
    CHAPTER20 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 498
    Continuingandexpandingtheuseofthetransfer
    ofenvironmentallysoundtechnology(TEST)meth-
    odology(UNIDO,n.d.a)inconjunctionwithenvi-
    ronmentalmanagementaccounting(EMA)(Box
    20.4).
    Workingwithgovernmentandacademiainjoint
    researchprogramstodevelopnewtechnology.
    Employing eco-innovation
    Thedevelopmentofindustrialecologyasapartof
    sustainabledevelopmentisarelativelyrecentconcept
    usedtolookattheinter-relationshipbetweenindus-
    trialandeconomicsystemsandnaturalsystems(Das,
    2005).Industrialecologyconnectswithzerodischarge
    inrestructuringindustrytoeliminatewasteasanalter-
    nativetoend-of-pipesolutions(Figure20.11).
    Somepointsforindustryinclude:
    Incorporateindustrialecologyanddesignforen-
    vironment(DFE)intoindustrialdesignandoverall
    planning(Das,2005).
    Relocatetoeco-industrialparks.Thismutual
    groupingofindustriestoreusewastewaterhas
    manyapparentadvantages,butthereareobsta-
    clestobeovercome,suchascorporatereluctance
    topartnerwithunrelatedindustriesandthefearof
    dependencyonasinglewatersupplier(Das,2005).
    Inolderareasnotamenabletosuchgroupings,the
    FIGURE 20.11
    Conceptualrelationshipsbetweensustainablemanufacturingandeco-innovation
    Source: OECD (2009, p. 15).
    Modication Re-design Alternatives Creation
    Industrial
    ecology
    Institutions
    Organizations
    and
    marketing
    methods
    Processes
    and
    products
    E
    c
    o
    -
    i
    n
    n
    o
    v
    a
    t
    i
    o
    n

    t
    a
    r
    g
    e
    t
    s
    Eco-innovationmechanisms
    Pollution
    control
    Cleaner
    production
    Eco-
    efciency
    Life-cycle
    thinking
    Closed-loop
    production
    T
    e
    c
    h
    n
    o
    l
    o
    g
    i
    c
    a
    l
    N
    o
    n
    -
    t
    e
    c
    h
    n
    o
    l
    o
    g
    i
    c
    a
    l
    transportationofwastewatermaybealargeprob-
    lem.Newindustrieswithlargewaterdemandsthat
    donotrequiredrinkingwaterqualitymayneed
    tolocatenearexistingornewsewagetreatment
    plants.
    Investinenvironmentandecologicalrestoration.
    Suchprogrammesmayincludeinvestmentinup-
    streamwatershedrestorationandinsupplychain
    areas,whichprovidesawinwinsituationforbusi-
    nessandcommunitiesandmayhaveamorefa-
    vourablecostbenetthantechnologicalsolutions
    (PacicInstitute,2007).
    Adoptalife-cycleapproach,wherebyallstagesof
    theproductslifeisassessed,includingrawmaterial
    extraction,manufacture,distribution,useanddis-
    posal.Thismaybeinthecontextofclosed-loopsys-
    tems.Forexample,theexistingUNIDOprogramme
    forchemicalleasingprovidesabigincentivetozero
    discharge(ChemicalLeasing,n.d.a).Italsoimproves
    theefcientuseofchemicalsandhaseconomicand
    environmentalbenetsbyclosingtheloopbetween
    thesupplieranduserofchemicals(Figure20.12):
    thesuppliersellsthefunctionofthechemicalsand
    togetherwiththeuserisinvolvedinmanagingthe
    lifecycleofthematerial.
    WWDR4 499 FRESHWATERFORINDUSTRY
    FIGURE 20.12
    Theconceptofchemicalleasing
    Source: Chemical Leasing (n.d.b).
    Supplier
    Traditionalrelationship
    Conictingincentives
    Wantsto
    increase
    Chemical
    consumption
    Buyer
    Wantsto
    decrease
    Service
    provider
    Chemicalleasingmodel
    Alignedincentives
    Wantsto
    increase
    Chemical
    consumption
    Buyer
    Wantsto
    decrease
    Chemical
    producer
    supply, no sale
    Chemical
    user
    Environment:
    emissionreduction
    Economy:
    addedvalue
    Costs:
    users waterpollution
    Costs:
    others
    wasteload
    Costs:
    producers
    ofchemicals
    tion
    airpollution
    CHAPTER20 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 500

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    UNEP

    AuthorsTimJones(DJEnvironmental),TimDavies(DJEnvironmental),
    ThomasChiramba(UNEP)andElizabethKhaka(UNEP)
    ContributorsDanielePerrot-Maitre(UNEP),RenateFleiner(UNEP),PeterBjoernsen
    (UNEP-DHICentreonWaterandEnvironment),DavidCoates(SecretariatoftheCBD),
    Anne-LeonoreBof(WBCSD)andSarahDavidson(TheNatureConservancy)
    CHAPTER 21
    Ecosystems
    Shutterstock/Ammit

    Ecosystems can be managed so as to sustain water availability and its quality services
    provided by ecosystems and thereby help achieve water security. The continued availability
    of water (of sufcient quantity and quality) depends on the continued healthy functioning of
    the ecosystems that supply it, while the ecosystems themselves are dependent on receiving
    sufcient water. This can be summed up as nature for water security; water security for nature,
    a phrase that neatly encapsulates the linkages that decision-makers have to take into account.
    Ecosystems provide a wide range of services (e.g. food and bre, nutrient recycling, climate
    regulation, ood and drought regulation, and tourism and recreation), all of which are
    underpinned by water security. Water use by all is dependent on ecosystem functioning,
    as are the other natural resource-based goods and services that support human society.
    Maintaining the ability of ecosystems to support ecosystem services is therefore critical for
    socio-economic well-being and sustainable development.
    Managing ecosystem services is about trade-ofs. Trade-ofs are not necessarily about
    choosing one benet over another. They are as much about sustainable multiple benets and
    balanced investments to achieve an optimal outcome.
    Sustainable development, including water security, is dependent on maintaining ecosystem
    services. Ecosystem management is therefore key.
    Many ecosystem services are not generally considered in economic planning but can generate
    very high economic values. They are often considered as being provided free of charge by
    nature, but in many cases this is incorrect because they can be expensive to rehabilitate or
    replace articially when degraded or lost. They are also nite and can be over-used.
    There is an urgent need to incorporate ecosystem-based thinking into water governance.
    Water allocation needs to be based on sustainable supply, which is determined primarily by
    ecosystem boundaries, and not on demand.
    Sustaining and restoring ecosystems is an essential response to the increased risks and
    uncertainty posed by climate change.
    Risks and uncertainties arising from natural disasters such as oods, landslides and droughts
    (including those triggered by extreme storms, earthquakes and tsunamis) can be reduced
    by maintaining or restoring natural infrastructure. The economic benets of reducing this
    vulnerability are substantial through both reducing the frequency and severity of impacts
    and creating more stable conditions post impact.
    As a consequence of escalating pressures, ecosystems and their services continue to be
    degraded and lost. This increases risk. Freshwater ecosystems are the most threatened of all.
    The ability of ecosystems to continue providing the water resources services that we depend
    on is being severely compromised, with already catastrophic efects for humanity.
    Sustaining or restoring ecosystems to ensure continued availability of the ecosystem services
    on which we depend can be a cost-efective and more sustainable solution than traditional
    approaches to achieving water security. Natural infrastructure solutions should be part of all
    options considered, alongside physical infrastructure, and assessments should factor in the
    co-benets on ofer, which are often high with natural solutions.
    The need is to make ecosystem-based approaches mainstream under an improved and more
    holistic policy and management framework that capitalizes on the benets on ofer to help
    us achieve more sustainable solutions.
    21.1Thechallenges
    Ecosystemsareattheheartoftheglobalwatercycle.
    Allfreshwateronearthisultimatelydependentontheir
    continuedhealthyfunctioning.Ecosystemsprovidea
    spectrumofservicesthatbenethumansocietyinall
    regionsoftheworld,includingtheessentialregulation
    ofwaterquantity,mitigationofextremesofood-
    inganddrought,andpreservationofwaterquality.
    Ecosystemsalsocyclethewateronwhichtheythem-
    selvesdepend,therebyunderpinningallterrestrial
    ecosystemservices,suchasfoodproduction,climate
    regulation,carbonstorageandnutrientrecycling.This
    watercyclealsosignicantlyinuencesthefunctioning
    ofestuariesanddeltas,includingthesignicantser-
    vicestheyprovide,suchasregulatinglandformation,
    coastalprotectionandfoodfromsheries.
    Ecosystemlossanddegradationusuallyresultsinare-
    ductioninthedeliveryofthesewater-relatedservices.
    Theservicespreviouslyprovidedbynatureoftenhave
    tobesubstitutedbyengineeredsolutions(e.g.ood
    controlstructuresorwatertreatmentfacilities),usu-
    allyatgreateconomicinvestmentandoperationalcost
    andwithlowsustainability.Changesinlandusecan
    signicantlyaltertheavailabilityofwater;forexample,
    deforestationhasanimpactonsurfacewateravailabil-
    ityandquality.Likewise,landcoverdependsoncon-
    tinuedwateravailability;forexample,forestsarede-
    pendentongroundwater.Maintainingtheextentand
    healthyfunctioningofecosystemsshouldbeaninte-
    gralpartofdealingwithwatersecurityissues.Using
    naturalinfrastructurecanofermorecostefective
    andsustainablesolutionseitherinsteadof,orinparal-
    lelwith,hardengineeredapproaches.Thechallengeis
    tointegrateecosystem-basedthinkingandmanage-
    mentapproachesandwaterandlanduseplanningin
    allsectors.
    Historically,ecosystemshavebeentreatedasunpro-
    ductiveusersofwaterbysomegroups.Attheother
    endofthespectrum,manygroupshaveadvocated
    attentiontothembasedonbiodiversity,protection
    andconservationarguments,oftenarticulatedab-
    stractlywithregardtopressingdevelopmentissues.
    Fortunately,perceptionsareshiftingtowardsmanag-
    inghumaninteractionswithecosystems(theenviron-
    ment)tosupportwater-relateddevelopmentgoals.
    Thecaseforecosystem-basedsolutionsinwaterpolicy
    andlandandwatermanagementissupportedbycon-
    siderablesuccessfullocalpractice.Thechallengeisto
    mainstreamtheapproachastheproviderofeconomi-
    callyandenvironmentallysustainablewaterman-
    agementsolutions.AsrecognizedbytheFifthWorld
    WaterForum(Istanbul,March2009),thereneedsto
    beaparadigmshiftfromWaterforNaturetoNature
    forWater.Thisrequiresthatdecision-makers:
    understandthattheavailabilityofappropriatequan-
    titiesofwaterofsufcientqualityisaservicepro-
    videdbyecosystemsandthereforesustainingorre-
    storingecosysteminfrastructureisatooltoachieve
    watersecurity;
    arefullyawareofthedirectorindirectdependence
    ofmost,ifnotall,socio-economicsectors,onthe
    maintenanceofsustainableecosystemservicesand
    thenatureofthoseservices;
    understandthefactorsthatareputtingecosystem
    functioningatrisk;
    valueecosystemservicesproperly,including
    throughcalculationoftheeconomiccostsofreplac-
    ingthemwithengineeredsolutions;
    implementtransparentandimpartialpolicydevel-
    opmentandmanagementthatrecognizesthateco-
    systemscanpromotecost-efectivesolutionswith
    theaddedpotentialtodelivermultiplebenetsfor
    sustainabledevelopment;and
    implementthechangesnecessarytoputthesolu-
    tionsintopractice.
    21.2Theroleofecosystemsinregulating
    waterquantityandquality
    Asimpliedintroductiontowaterecosystemswas
    providedinthersteditionoftheWorld Water
    Development Report(WWAP,2003),withafocuson
    wetlandsandfreshwatercomponentsofecosystems
    suchasstreams,rivers,lakesandmarshes.Thisintro-
    ductionneedsconsiderableexpandingtoincludeother
    ecosystemcomponentssuchasforests,grasslandsand
    soilsthatalsoplayasignicantroleintheecosystems.
    Surfacevegetation(landcover)regulatesrunofof
    wateraswellassoilerosionatthelandsurface.Plant
    leavesinuencehowrainfallreachesthegroundand
    theirrootshelpinltrationofwaterintosoils.Thissig-
    nicantlyreduceserosion,stabilizesslopes(reducing
    land-slides),potentiallyreducesoodrisks,andsus-
    tainssoilmoistureandtherechargeofgroundwater.
    Plantsalsotakeupwaterfromthesoilandreleaseit
    backintotheatmosphereaswatervapour(transpira-
    tion),whichcanhaveasignicantinuenceonlocal,
    regionalandevenglobalrainfallpatterns.Theben-
    etsofthisprocessaremostobviousinregionswhere
    CHAPTER21 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 504
    WWDR4 505 ECOSYSTEMS
    extensivetractsoforiginalforestcoverremain,suchas
    theAmazonandCongobasins.Removalofthisvege-
    tationcanreducelocal,regionalandglobalrainfall.But
    therelationshipsarecomplex;forexample,plantingof
    non-nativetreespecieswithhighwaterrequirements,
    particularlyindryareas,canleadtogroundwaterde-
    pletion.Proposalsforextensivechangesinvegetation
    covershouldalwaysbesubjecttorigorousassessment
    oftheimpactsonwatercycling.
    Wetlandssuchasswamps,marshes,peatlandsand
    shallowlakesplayperhapsthemostobviousrole
    inthewatercycle,astheybydenitionpermanently
    orintermittentlystorewater.Forexample,oodplain
    wetlandsstoreoodwaterandslowitsow,helping
    reduceoodriskdownstream.Wetlandsalsoregulate
    nutrients,sedimentsandotherpotentialpollutants,
    actingasanefectivenaturalwatertreatmentinfra-
    structure(Box21.1).
    Mountainecosystemscompriseacomplexmosaicof
    snowelds,glaciers,barerock,boulderelds,screes,
    streams,rivers,lakes,grasslandsandforests,andare
    thesourceofmanyoftheworldsmajorriversystems.
    TheHimalayanmassifalonesuppliestheBrahmaputra,
    Ganges,Indus,MekongandYangtzerivers,among
    othermajorriversystemsinAsia,providingwater,year
    round,toapproximatelyonebillionpeople(Raoetal.,
    2008).
    21.2.1Ecosystemsaswaterinfrastructure
    Thetermecosysteminfrastructurehasbeenintro-
    ducedtoacknowledgethatecosystemscan,and
    do,performsimilarfunctionstoconventionalengi-
    neeredwaterinfrastructure.Ecosysteminfrastruc-
    tureisnowcommonlyusedtoaddresswaterquality
    needs(Box21.2).Afunctioningoodplainmoderates
    peakowsbyallowingthewatertospreadoutover
    awidearea,atthesametimeenablingsedimentsto
    settle;removingoodplainsrequirestheirbenets
    tobereplacedbyengineeredoodandsediment
    controlmeasures.Investmentinthemaintenanceof
    softecosysteminfrastructureneedstobeseenasan
    equallyvalidoptiontoinvestinginhardengineered
    infrastructure.Inmanycases,theformerwillprove
    tobemanytimesmorecostefectivethanthelatter,
    whilealsoprovidingadditionalbenetssuchassup-
    portforsheries,tourismandbiodiversity.Butthe
    interactionsbetweenlandform,landcover,climate
    andthewatercyclearecomplexandlocation-specic,
    andsolutionsforaparticularsituationrequiretarget-
    edinvestigation(EmertonandBos,2004).
    21.2.2Waterallocationandenvironmentalows
    Ecosystemsarethemselvesdependentonreceiving
    sufcientwaterfortheircontinuedfunctioning.Key
    elementsforwaterallocationtosustainthatfunction-
    inginclude:
    Assessmentsbasedontheeconomicvaluesof
    water-relatedecosystemservicesandtrade-ofs
    betweenusers
    Adequateknowledgeofhowlocalandregional
    ecosystemsunderpinwatersecurityincludingwater
    quantity,qualityandtimingforbothecosystemand
    directhumanneeds
    Aparticipatory,scaleappropriateapproach
    Buildingwatergovernancecapacity
    Allocationdecisionstobebaseduponmanaging
    andprotectingsupply,ratherthansimplyrespond-
    ingtodemand
    Thequantityofwaterneededtomaintainallofthe
    water-dependentorwater-relatedecosystemservices
    thatarerequiredinagivenareaisoftenreferredtoas
    theenvironmentalow(Dysonetal.,2008).However,
    currentapproachestoenvironmentalowaretooof-
    tenrestrictedtoconsideringsurface-waterows,in
    particular,minimumowrequirementsforrivers
    (Box21.3).Theyalsoneedtoconsidergroundwater,
    soilmoistureandevapo-transpirationcomponents
    necessarytosustainthewatercycle.
    Kolkatacitygeneratessome600millionLofsewage
    andwastewatereveryday.ThemanmadeEastKolkata
    WetlandswasdeclaredaRamsarsitein2002foritsuse
    ofthis125km
    2
    (12,500ha)areaforsewagetreatment,sh
    farming(4,000ha)andirrigatedagriculture(6,000ha).
    WasteispumpedintotheshpondsoftheEastKolkata
    Wetlandswherebiodegradationhasacumulativeef-
    ciencyinreducingbiologicaloxygendemandofmore
    than80%andcoliformbacteriareductionexceeds99.99%
    onaverage.Thewetlandsalsoprovideaboutone-third
    (11,000metrictons)ofthecitysannualshdemandand
    waterfromthemisusedtosupplyricepaddies(yielding
    15,000metrictonsofriceperannum)andsupportsveg-
    etableproduction.
    Source: Department of Environment, Government of West Bengal,
    India (2007).
    BOX 21.1
    Wetlandsaswatertreatmentinfrastructure:
    Kolkata,India
    CHAPTER21 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 506
    21.2.3Economicvaluationofecosystemservices
    Assigningeconomicvaluestowater-relatedand
    water-dependentecosystemservicesisoneofthemost
    efectivemeansofenablinginvestmentsandopera-
    tionalcoststobedirectlycompared(Box21.4).Italso
    isimportanttoshedlightonthegenderdimensionsof
    developmentbecauserelianceondiferentecosystem
    servicesvariesconsiderablybetweengenders(and
    economicclasses).(SeeChapter23foratreatmentof
    ecosystemserviceswithinawatervaluationframework.)
    Thefactthatwaterunderpinsallecosystemservices
    generateshighvalueswhenthevalueofwateriscal-
    culatedinthisfashion.Butamongstthefullsuiteof
    ecosystemservicestherearethosethatrelatemore
    obviouslyanddirectlytowaterasaresource(e.g.
    oodmitigationandwaterquality).Valuingecosys-
    temservicesissometimesregardedasdifcult;but
    forsome,itisrelativelysimple.Thecostsofoodim-
    pacts,forexample,andtheinvestmentsin,andoper-
    ationalcostsof,articialood-controlstructuresare
    frequentlywellknownandoftenreectthevalueof
    ood-mitigationservicesthatecosysteminfrastruc-
    turepreviouslyprovided.Likewise,thelossofclean
    waterasanecosystemserviceispartlyreectedin
    costsofarticialwatertreatmentortheeconomic
    impactsofpoorwaterquality.
    Advancesintheeconomicvaluationofecosystemser-
    viceshavebeenmadeoverthepast20yearsanda
    rangeoftechniquescannowbeusedinpractice:these
    aresummarizedbyEmertonandBos(2004),Emerton
    (2005)andDeGrootetal.(2006).TEEB(2009a)pro-
    videsacomprehensiveoverviewofthetopic,includ-
    ingnotingtherelianceofthepoorontheseservices
    directly.TEEB(2009b)concluded,inter alia,thatthere
    isacompellingcostbenetcaseforpublicinvestment
    inecologicalinfrastructure(especiallyrestoringand
    conservingforests,mangroves,riverbasins,wetlands,
    etc.),particularlybecauseofitssignicantpotentialasa
    meansofadaptationtoclimatechange.Evenformany
    terrestrialecosystems(suchasforests),valuesrelated
    towaterservicesoutstripmoreconspicuousbenets
    (suchastimberproductsandcarbonstorage).Forex-
    ample,TEEB(2009b)providesexamplesofthewater-
    relatedservicesprovidedbyforests,whichaccountfor
    morethan44%ofthetotalvalueoftheforests,and
    exceedthecombinedvalueofclimateregulationas
    wellasfood,rawmaterials,andrecreationandtourism
    services.Thevaluationofwater-relatedecosystemser-
    vicesremainsanimprecisescience,andalthoughitcan
    providegoodcomparativeindicatorsofwherepriorities
    shouldlieandhasledtosomeincreasednationalfocus
    onrelevantissues,itgenerallyremainspoorlyapplied.
    However,mostreportscautionthatmanyecosystem
    values,especiallythoserelatingtolocalbenets,are
    context-specic,meaningtheyshouldnotnecessarily
    betransferredfromonecasetoanother.
    Theuseofnaturalinfrastructuretoprotectwatersupplies,
    particularlydrinkingwaterforcities,isalreadywide-
    spread.Forexample,theWaterProducerProgramme,
    developedbytheBrazilianNationalWaterAgency,
    providescompensationtofarmerstosafeguardcritical
    headwaterswhichsupplywatertoninemillionpeoplein
    theSoPaulometropolitanregion.Successhasspawned
    similarapproachesinotherregionsofBrazil(TheNature
    Conservancy,2010b).Likewise,thepramograsslandof
    ChingazaNationalParkintheColombianAndesplaysa
    crucialroleinmaintainingwatersuppliesforeightmillion
    peopleinthecapitalcity,Bogot.Aninnovativepublic
    privatepartnershiphassetupanenvironmentaltrustfund
    throughwhichpaymentsfromthewatercompanyare
    transferredformanagingthepramosustainably,poten-
    tiallysavingthewatercompanyaroundUS$4millionper
    year(Forslundetal.,2009,p.31).
    BOX 21.2
    Ecosystemsolutionsforwaterqualityrisks
    TheMekongRiverAgreement(1995)betweenCambodia,
    LaoPeoplesDemocraticRepublic,ThailandandVietNam
    providesaframeworkforcooperationoMaintainingows:
    TheMekongRiverAgreementandspecicallyrequires
    minimumstreamowswhicharetobeofnotlessthan
    theacceptableminimummonthlynaturalowduring
    eachmonthofthedryseason.AnIntegratedBasinFlow
    Managementprogrammehasbeenundertakenbythe
    MekongRiverCommissionSecretariatsince2004topro-
    videinformationtotheriparianstatesregardingthepre-
    dictedcostsandbenetsoflandandwaterdevelopment.
    Italsosupportsinter-governmentdialogueonthetrade-
    ofsthatmaybenecessarybetweendevelopment,social
    andenvironmentalimpactsenablingagreementonamu-
    tuallyacceptableframeworkforsustainabledevelopment
    andtopromotereasonableandequitabletransboundary
    sharingofbenecialuses.
    BOX 21.3
    Maintainingows:TheMekongRiverAgreement
    Sources: Mekong River Commission (2010) and Srinetr (2009).
    WWDR4 507 ECOSYSTEMS
    Withattentionturningtoclimatechangerisksand
    vulnerabilities,agreaterincentiveisinplaceforvalu-
    ationstudiesconcerningwater-relatedecosystem
    services.Highvaluesarebeingderived.Forexample,
    Costanzaetal.(2008)valuetheextremeweathermiti-
    gationservices(notincludingotherservices)provid-
    edbyonehectareofwetlandintheUnitedStatesof
    America(USA)atUS$33,000forasinglestormevent.
    InMexico,thevalueofwaterassociatedwithprotected
    areasforallhumanconsumptiveusesisestimatedat
    US$158millionannually,withwateruseddirectlyfor
    humanconsumptionvaluedatUS$15millionannually
    (TheNatureConservancy,2010a).Globally,between
    33%and44%ofcitiesobtaintheirwaterfromforested
    protectedareas.Theseexamplesdemonstrateanun-
    derlyingconvergenceofinterestsaroundecosystems
    althoughprogressremainsconstrainedbyconsider-
    ablediversityintheterminologyinuse.
    Thebusinessadvantageofmaintainingecosystem
    servicesisbeingmorewidelyrecognizedandbe-
    yondjusttheboundsofcorporatesocialresponsibil-
    ity.Forexample,themultibilliondollarScottishwhisky
    industryworkscloselywiththeScottishEnvironment
    ProtectionAgencytodevelopandimplementbest
    practiceinmanagingtheenvironmenttosustainthe
    waterresourcesuponwhichtheindustrydepends.This
    includestheconservationoffragilepeatlandecosys-
    temsandactiveparticipationinriverbasinmanage-
    mentplanning.
    TheWorldBusinessCouncilforSustainable
    Development(WBCSD),workinginconjunctionwith
    theWorldResourcesInstitute,hasdevelopedthe
    CorporateEcosystemServicesReview,whichhelps
    companiesidentifyandmeasuretherisksandoppor-
    tunitiesarisingfromtheirimpactanddependenceon
    ecosystemservices(WBCSD,2010a).TheWBCSDhas
    alsodevelopedapubliclyavailableGlobalWaterTool,
    whichhelpscompaniesandorganizationsmaptheir
    wateruseandassessrisksrelativetotheirglobaloper-
    ationsandsupplychains(WBCSD,2010b).Buildingon
    bothtools,theWBCSDhaslaunchedtheEcosystem
    ValuationInitiative,whichisworkingtodevelopa
    GuidetoCorporateEcosystemValuationthatmakes
    thecaseforecosystemvaluationasanintegralpart
    ofbusinessplanningandcorporatedecision-making
    (WBCSD,2010c).WBCSDsVision2050explorespo-
    tentialpathwaysbywhichaglobalpopulationofnine
    billionpeoplecouldbelivingsustainablyby2050,with
    particularemphasisontheroleofbusinessinrelation
    todriversofchange(WBCSD,2010d).
    21.2.4Paymentforecosystemservices
    Makingpaymentstolandownersanduserscanbean
    importanttoolforincentivizinglandandwaterman-
    agementpracticesthatmaximizeecosystemservices
    (paymentforecosystemservices[PES]),beneting
    downstreamusers,wherethereisaclearcause-and-
    efectlinkbetweenupstreammanagementpractices
    anddownstreambenets.Costrecoveryislikelytobe
    easiestwhencertaingroupsalreadypaytheconse-
    quencesoflostservicessothatnancingcanbetrans-
    ferredfromthosegroupstopeopleabletoreinstatea
    service.Theclearestexamplesofthisarewithwa-
    terquality(Boxes21.2and21.5)andoodmitigation
    (e.g.compensatingfarmersforincreasedoodrisksin
    farmlandtoreduceoodriskforpeoplelivingincities).
    PESschemesaremostlikelytosucceedwhen:
    demandforecosystemservicesisclearandnan-
    ciallyvaluabletooneormoreplayers;
    supplyisthreatened;
    specicresourcemanagementactionshavethepo-
    tentialtoaddresssupplyconstraints;
    efectivebrokersorintermediariesexist;
    contractlawsnotonlyexistbutareenforced,and
    resourcetenureisclear;and
    clearcriteriaforevaluatingequitableoutcomes
    acrosspartnersareestablished,perhapsinvolving
    theparticipationofindependentassessors.
    EcosystemsoftheMississippiRiverDeltaprovide
    US$1247billioninbenetstopeopleeveryyearinterms
    ofhurricaneandoodprotection,watersupply,water
    quality,recreationandsheries.Ifthisnaturalcapitalwere
    treatedasaneconomicasset,thedeltasminimumasset
    valuewouldbeUS$330billiontoUS$1.3trillion(at2007
    values).However,thisnaturalcapitalisbeingsquandered
    throughhuman-causedecosystemlossanddegradation.
    Doingnothingtoinvestinnaturalinfrastructureinthe
    comingdecadeswouldcostanestimatedUS$41billion
    peryearthroughlostecosystemservices,whereas
    protection,rehabilitationandrestorationofnatural
    infrastructurewouldhaveanestimatednetbenetof
    US$62billionannually.
    Source: Batker et al. (2010).
    BOX 21.4
    AssessingecosystemservicesintheMississippi
    RiverDelta,USA
    CHAPTER21 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 508
    FurtherinformationonPESisprovidedby,forexam-
    ple,ForestTrends,TheKatoombaGroup,andUNEP
    (2008);Emerton(2005);EmertonandBos(2004);
    andSmithetal.(2006).
    21.3Ecosystemstatusandtrends
    Theoverallnegativeglobaltrendinthestatusof
    ecosystemspresentedinthesecondandthirdedi-
    tionsoftheWorld Water Development Report
    (WWAP,2006,2009)aswellasinthefourthGlobal
    Environment Outlook(UNEP,2007)andthirdGlobal
    Biodiversity Outlook(CBD,2010a)continues.Thisis
    alsoreectedinregionalassessments(suchasUNEP,
    2008).
    TheMillenniumEcosystemAssessment(MA)conduct-
    edfrom2000to2005remainsthemostcomprehen-
    siveoverallassessmentavailabletodate.Anoverall
    synthesisreport,acorrespondingsynthesisforwet-
    landsandwater(aswellasforotherspecicsectors)
    anddetailedtechnicalreportsfromwhichthesesyn-
    theseswerecompiledareavailableontheMAwebsite
    (http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx).
    Referringspecicallytowetlandsandwater,theMA
    foundthat(MA,2005):
    Waterscarcityandinadequateaccesstowaterare
    keyfactorslimitingeconomicdevelopmentinmany
    countries.However,manywater-resourcedevelop-
    mentschemeshavenotgivenadequateconsidera-
    tiontothetrade-ofswithothervaluableservices
    providedbywetlands.
    Cross-sector,ecosystem-basedapproachestonatu-
    ralresourcemanagementthatconsiderthetrade-
    ofsbetweendiferentecosystemservicesaremore
    likelytodeliversustainabledevelopment.
    Particularlyimportanttrade-ofsarethosebetween
    agriculturalproductionandwaterqualityandquan-
    tity,andbetweenwateruseandbiodiversity.
    ThethirdGlobal Biodiversity Outlook(CBD,2010a)
    providesstarkevidencethatthelossanddegradation
    offreshwaterecosystemsremainsthefastestofallthe
    majorbiomes.Thisoveralldecaycannotbestemmed
    simplythroughdeclaringprotectedareasbecauseof
    theinterconnectednatureoftheseecosystemsandin
    particularbasin-scaleinteractionsbetweenlandand
    water.Forexample,datafromtheRamsarConvention
    onWetlandsnationalreportsshowthatwhilewetland
    protectedareaisincreasing,mostwetlandsitesare
    degrading(CBD,2010b).AreviewoftheConvention
    onBiologicalDiversity(CBDs)workinthisarea(CBD,
    2010b)concludedthatthedriversofbiodiversityloss
    remainunchangedandareallescalatingandinclude
    conversionofhabitat,fragmentation,theimpactsof
    wateruse(particularlybyagriculture),landuseand
    otherimpactsonwaterqualityandinvasivealienspe-
    cies;excessivenutrientloadinghasemergedasan
    importantdirectdriverofecosystemchangeininland
    (andcoastal)watersandpollutionofgroundwater
    remainsamajorconcern;thesurfaceandgroundwa-
    terportionsofthewatercyclehavebeensubjectedto
    massivechangesbydirecthumanuseonlocal,region-
    alandcontinentalscales;andthegloballimitofeco-
    logicalsustainabilityofwateravailableforabstraction
    hasbeenreachedandregionally,thislimithasalready
    beenexceededforaboutone-thirdofthehumanpop-
    ulationanditwillrisetoabouthalfby2030.
    TheLivingPlanetIndex(LPI)measurestrendsinpopu-
    lationsofmorethan1,000vertebratespeciessh,
    amphibians,reptiles,birds,mammalsfromallaround
    theworld,providingausefulproxyforassessingeco-
    systemhealth(WWF,2008).Takingintoaccountdif-
    ferentbiomes,freshwaterbiomescontinuedtoshowa
    fasteroverall(global)rateofLPIdeclinethanmarine
    andfullyterrestrialbiomes,withaparticularlyrapid
    declineintropicalregions.Populationtrendsintem-
    perate(largelythedeveloped)regionsremainstable
    orarepossiblyimproving,butintropical(largely
    developing)regionstheycontinuetodecline
    (Figure21.1).Thistrendismirroredspecicallyfor
    thedataforfreshwaterdependentpopulationsbut
    NestlS.A.producesonebillionbottlesofVittel-branded
    mineralwatereveryyearatVittelinnorth-eastFrance.
    Toreducecontaminationriskasfaraspossible,Nestl
    hasestablishedapaymentforecosystemservices(PES)
    schemewherebyfarmswithintheprotectionzonefor
    theVittelaquiferareprovidedwithincentivestoadopt
    farmingpracticesthatcontributetonitratereduction(e.g.
    conversionofarablelandtopasture).By2004,allfarms
    intheareahadjoinedthescheme.Anindependentstudy
    concludedthattheschemewasacost-efectivemeans
    forNestltovirtuallyeliminateasignicantrisktoits
    business,whilefarmerswereabletoenterinto30-year
    paymentagreements,benetfromdebtcancellationand
    acquireadditionalland.
    BOX 21.5
    Vittel,France
    Source: Perrot-Matre (2006).
    WWDR4 509 ECOSYSTEMS
    FIGURE 21.1
    TheGlobalLivingPlanetIndex,allbiomes(19702007)
    FIGURE 21.2
    TheFreshwaterLivingPlanetIndex(19702007)
    Source: WWF (2010).
    Source: WWF (2010, p. 26).
    Key
    Key
    Freshwaterindex
    Condencelimits
    Temperate
    freshwaterindex
    Condencelimits
    Tropicalfreshwater
    index
    Condencelimits
    L
    i
    v
    i
    n
    g

    P
    l
    a
    n
    e
    t

    I
    n
    d
    e
    x

    (
    1
    9
    7
    0
    =
    1
    )
    2.0
    1.5
    1.0
    0,5
    0,0
    1970 1980 1990 2000 2007
    Thetemperatefreshwater
    indexshowsanincrease
    of36%whilethetropical
    freshwaterindexshowsa
    declinenearly70%
    (WWF/ZSL,2010)
    Theglobalfreshwater
    indexshowsadeclineof
    35%between1970and
    2007(WWT/ZSL,2010)
    2.0
    1.5
    1.0
    0,5
    0,0
    1970 1980 1990 2000 2007
    L
    i
    v
    i
    n
    g

    P
    l
    a
    n
    e
    t

    I
    n
    d
    e
    x

    (
    1
    9
    7
    0
    =
    1
    )
    Year
    Year
    L
    i
    v
    i
    n
    g

    P
    l
    a
    n
    e
    t

    I
    n
    d
    e
    x

    (
    1
    9
    7
    0
    =
    1
    )
    1.2
    1.0
    0.8
    0.6
    0,4
    0.2
    0,0
    1970 1980 1990 2000 2007
    Keya
    GlobalLivingPlanetIndex
    Condencelimits
    Theindexshowsadeclineof
    around30%from1970to2007,
    basedon7,953populationsof
    2,544speciesofbirds,mammals,
    amphibians,reptilesandsh
    (WWF/ZSL,2010)
    CHAPTER21 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 510
    theseshowmorerapiddecline(Figure21.2).Thisis
    explainedbybiodiversitybeinghigherindeveloping
    regionsandthisbeingwherethemanypressuresand
    impactsarebeingfeltmostacutely.However,many
    ofthedriversofecosystemdegradationindeveloping
    regions,andemergingeconomies,aredeterminedat
    leastinpartbyconsumptionindevelopedcountries.
    Whilethelocalfootprintofdevelopednationsmayap-
    peartobestabilizing(orimproving,asperFigures21.1
    and21.2),muchoftheirenvironmentalfootprintisnow
    efectivelybeingexportedtothedevelopingworld
    andthisisreectedinparticularthroughdeteriorat-
    ingfreshwaterecosystemconditions.The2010Living
    Planet Report (WWF,2010)showsacontinuationof
    thedownwardtrendintheglobalLPIandthedispro-
    portionatelyadversestatusoffreshwaterecosystems.
    21.4Risks,vulnerabilitiesanduncertainties
    afectingecosystemsandwatersecurity
    Ecosystemsandtheircontributiontowatersecurity
    aresubjecttomanyrisks,vulnerabilitiesanduncer-
    taintiesfrombothnatural(e.g.climatevariability)and
    increasinglyfromescalatinghuman-causedpressures
    atvariousscales,fromlocalwatersheddegradationto
    globalclimatechange.Ecosystemshaveevolvedtobe
    resilienttotheimpactsofextremenaturaleventssuch
    asoods,droughts,hurricanes,earthquakes,volcanic
    eruptionsandtsunamisandtosomeextentcancope
    withhuman-induceddegradation.Butmanyconse-
    quencesofecosystemdecayandcatastrophicdisas-
    tersaretriggeredormadeworsethroughtheirmis-
    management,leadingtoareductionintheircapacity
    tosustainthebenetshumansneedthemtosupply.
    21.4.1Principalpressuresonecosystems
    ThesecondandthirdeditionsoftheWorld Water
    Development Report(WWAP,2006,2009)reviewed
    theprincipalpressuresandimpactsonecosystems,fo-
    cusinglargelyonfreshwatercomponents.Thesewere
    summarizedunderthefollowingheadings:
    Habitatalteration(e.g.bydrainageandconversion
    ofwetlands)
    Fragmentationandowregulation(e.g.bydams
    andreservoirs)
    Pollution
    Invasivespecies
    Climatechange
    Takingawiderviewofecosystemtypesthatplayakey
    roleinachievingwatersecurity(e.g.forests,grasslands
    andcoastalwetlands),aslightlymodiedapproach
    is(a)toconsidertheimpactsonwater-relatedeco-
    systemservicesofthreebroadcategoriesofchange
    (ecosystemconversion,ecosystemfragmentationand
    ecosystemdegradation)and(b)toexaminetheunder-
    lyingindirectdriversofthesechanges,suchaspopu-
    lationgrowth,economicdevelopmentandchanging
    consumptionpatterns.
    Ecosystem conversion
    Ecosystemconversion(e.g.drainingawetlandto
    growasinglecrop)usuallyresultsinsimplication
    ofserviceprovisionandoftenincreasingoneservice
    (e.g.food)attheexpenseofothers(e.g.nutrient
    cyclingandwaterregulation).Inefect,thisistrad-
    ingotherbenetsforfoodproduction,butusually
    netecosystembenetsdecline(Box21.6).Therewill
    alsobeparallelincreasesinotherdriversofecosys-
    temchangethrough,forexample,signicantde-
    creaseinwaterqualityandquantityduetorunof
    offertilizersandpesticides,abstractionofwaterfor
    irrigation,andinterruptionorescalationofsedimen-
    tationprocesses.
    Ecosystem fragmentation
    Ecosystemfragmentationresultsinreducedconnec-
    tivitybetweenoncecontiguoustractsofagiveneco-
    system.Riversaretheclassicexamplewherebyeco-
    logicallydisconnectedsectionsarecreatedby
    theconstructionofdamsoroodplaindrainage
    (Box21.7).Similarly,blocksofforestmaybe
    clear-felledandconvertedtootheruses,leaving
    disconnectedfragmentsoftheoriginalforest.New
    transportcorridorsandurbanexpansionareadditional
    commoncausesofecosystemfragmentation.
    Theremainingcomponentswillbesmallerinextent,
    lesscomplexinstructure,andlessdiverseand
    consequentlylessresilienttoexternalpressures.They
    willdeliverfewerecosystemserviceslessefectively
    (e.g.lowercapacitytoregulatesurface-waterow
    andsedimenttransport).
    TheMillenniumEcosystemAssessment(MA,2005)found
    thatthenetpresentvalueofintensivefarmlandoccupying
    thesiteofaconvertedwetlandinCanadawaslessthan
    halfthevalueoftheunconvertedwetland,whileaninten-
    siveshrimppondinThailandrepresentedlessthanone-
    quarterofthevalueofanunconvertedmangrove.
    BOX 21.6
    Netbenetsofecosystemconversion
    WWDR4 511 ECOSYSTEMS
    Ecosystem degradation
    Ecosystemdegradationoccurswhentheecological
    functioningofanecosystemandthereforeitscapac-
    itytodeliverecosystemservicesisreduced,evenif
    itstypeandextentaremaintained.Difuseorpoint-
    sourcepollutionisoneofthemostseriousformsof
    ecosystemdegradationafectingwatersecurity(Box
    21.8).
    21.4.2Non-linearecosystemchange:Thetipping
    pointconcept
    TheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversity(TEEB,
    2009)underlinesthatecosystemlossanddegradation
    donotalwaysresultinanimmediatelydetectableor
    proportionalresponseintermsoflostecosystemservic-
    es.Instead,atippingpointmaybereached,whererap-
    idandcatastrophiccollapseoccursfollowingaperiod
    ofapparentstability.CBD(2010a,p.6)concludesthat
    thereisahighriskofdramaticbiodiversitylossandac-
    companyingdegradationofabroadrangeofecosys-
    temservicesifecosystemsarepushedbeyondcertain
    thresholdsortippingpoints.Thepoorwouldfacethe
    earliestandmostsevereimpactsofsuchchanges,but
    ultimatelyallsocietiesandcommunitieswouldsufer.
    Agrowingconcern,increasinglybackedbyscientic
    evidence,relatestotippingpointsinforestecosystems
    andtheirabilitytosupportthewatercycle(Box21.9).
    21.4.3Climatechange
    Climatechangethreatenswatersecurityinmanyre-
    gionsoftheworldbytriggering,acceleratingorinten-
    sifying(orallthree)changestothewatercycle.These
    changesareoccurring,andwillcontinuetooccur,
    primarilyattheecosystemlevel.Inturntheywillalter
    theavailability(bothquantityandquality)ofwaterfor
    ecosystems,therebyaddingadditionalstresstoeco-
    systemservicestothatresultingfromotherhuman-
    causedpressuresonecosystems.
    TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange
    (IPCC)FourthAssessmentReport(IPCC,2007)lists
    32examplesofmajorprojectedimpactsofclimate
    changeacrosseightregions(coveringthewhole
    earth).Twenty-veoftheseincludeprimarylinksto
    hydrologicalchanges.Oftheotherseven,waterisim-
    plicatedinfourandtwoaregeneral.Onlyone(cor-
    albleaching)referstomajorimpactsnotobviously
    linkedtothehydrologicalcycle(beingcausedbythe
    acidicationefectsofcarbondioxide).Notably,most
    oftheimpactsonterrestrialvegetation(andtherefore
    alsoonfauna)aredrivenlargelybyhydrologicalshifts
    (changesinhumidity,permafrost,snowandicecover,
    rainfallpatternsandgroundwater).
    TheIPPCtechnicalpaperClimate Change and Water
    (IPCC,2008)statesthatmajorchangesinwater
    broughtaboutbyclimatechangeinclude:
    Changingprecipitationpatterns,intensityand
    extremes
    Reducedsnowcoverandwidespreadmeltingofice
    Changesinsoilmoistureandrunof
    Thereport(pp.78)alsoconcludesunambiguously
    thattherelationshipbetweenclimatechangeand
    freshwaterresourcesisofprimaryconcernandinter-
    est,thatsofarwaterresourceissueshavenotbeen
    adequatelyaddressedinclimatechangeanalysesand
    AlongtheDanubeRivermorethan80%ofthemainriver
    channelhasbeenregulatedbydams,whileonlyone-fth
    oftheoriginaloodplainremainsfunctional,withsigni-
    cantimpactsonthecapacityoftheriverbasintodeliver
    ecosystemservices.
    BOX 21.7
    FragmentationoftheDanubeRiverbasin,Central
    Europe
    Source: ICDPR (2010).
    IncommonwithmanypartsofEurope,intensicationof
    UKagricultureandtheover-applicationofnitratefertiliz-
    ersduringthetwentiethcenturyledinparticulartothe
    degradationofgroundwaterinareaswiththinorfree-
    drainingsoils(orboth)fromwhichnitrateswereleached
    rapidlybyrainfall.Morethan60%ofnitratepollutionin
    theUKisattributabletoagriculture.Inconformitywith
    EuropeanUnion(EU)andnationallegislation,theUKgov-
    ernmenthasdesignatednitratevulnerablezoneswithin
    whichtheapplicationofnitrate-basedfertilizersisre-
    stricted,withtheaimofensuringthatgroundwaternitrate
    levelsdonotexceedthepermitteddrinkingwaterlimits.
    Nevertheless,drinkingwaterstillneedstobesubjecttoa
    rangeofexpensivecompensatorymeasures,includingthe
    mixingofgroundwaterfromdiferentsources(toensure
    sufcientdilutionofnitratesfromcontaminatedareas)
    anddenitrication.
    Sources: Defra (2010); Tompkins (2003).
    BOX 21.8
    GroundwaternitratecontaminationintheUnited
    Kingdom
    CHAPTER21 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 512
    climatepolicyformulationsand,accordingtomany
    experts,thatwateranditsavailabilityandqualitywill
    bethemainpressures,andissues,onsocietiesandthe
    environmentunderclimatechange.
    TheIPCC(p.4)alsoobservesthattheareaoflandclas-
    siedasverydryhasalreadymorethandoubledsince
    the1970sandthatmanysemi-aridandaridareas(e.g.
    theMediterraneanBasin,westernUSA,southernAfrica
    andnorth-easternBrazil)areparticularlyexposedtothe
    impactsofclimatechangeandareprojectedtosufera
    decreaseofwaterresourcesduetoclimatechange.
    Globalclimatechangecompoundsthevulnerability
    ofallecosystems,butisperhapsmorenoticeable,or
    critical,forthosewherewaterisakeyvariable,suchas
    wetlands,desertsandforests,aswellasthosethatare
    alreadysuferingfromtheadverseimpactsofconver-
    sion,fragmentationanddegradation.Forexample,a
    wetlandinasemi-aridregionthatisalreadystressed
    duetoover-abstractionofwatermaybelostaltogeth-
    erifthereisaregionaldecreaseinprecipitationasa
    consequenceofclimatechange.
    Adaptationresponsestoclimatechangecanbe
    maximizedbyensuringthatecosystemsareasin-
    tactandhealthyaspossible.Forexample,protect-
    ingcoastalecosystemsmayhelppreventincursion
    ofseawaterintofreshwatersystemsduringstorm
    events,whicharepredictedtobecomemorefre-
    quentinsomepartsoftheworld.MA(2005)con-
    cludedthattheadverseefectsofclimatechange,
    suchassealevelrise,coralbleaching,andchanges
    inhydrologyandinthetemperatureofwaterbodies,
    willleadtoareductionintheservicesprovidedby
    wetlands.Becauseoftheirintimateanddirectrole
    inhydrology,removingtheexistingpressureson
    wetlandsandimprovingtheirresiliencyisoneofthe
    mostefectivemethodsofcopingwiththeadverse
    efectsofclimatechange.
    21.5Ecosystem-basedapproachestothe
    managementofwater
    ThesecondeditionoftheWorld Water Development
    Report(WWAP,2006)introducedtheconceptofeco-
    system-basedmanagement(EBM),whichessentially
    requiresthosemakingdecisionsabouttheallocation
    andmanagementofwatertothinkmoreholistically
    byincludingecosystemconsiderationsaspartofwa-
    termanagement.EBMinvestmentsandinterventions
    aredirectedatsustainingorenhancingtheecosystem
    componentofthewatercyclethroughtheuseofeco-
    system(natural)infrastructure.
    Asexplainedabove,theecosystemistheultimate
    sourceofallwater.Bothdirecthumanuseofwater
    andtheimpactsofclimatechangeessentiallyinvolve
    impactswhicharedelivered,eitherdirectlyorindi-
    rectly,throughecosystemchange.Therelationship
    betweenecosystemsandwaterimpliesthattheyare
    impactedbywateruse(andclimatechange).Thisis
    somethingthathasalwaysbeenknown,ifoftenarticu-
    latedindiferentwayssuchasenvironmentalimpact,
    anditframestherelationshipnegatively(although
    thisremainsanimportanttopic)andreinforcesdebate
    overdevelopmentversusenvironment.Moreimpor-
    tant,intermsofpolicyinuence,theecosystemwater
    relationshipmeansthatecosystemscanbeproactively
    managedinwaysthathelphumansachievewater-
    relateddevelopmentobjectives.Thisplacesecosys-
    temsassolutions(notproblems)andisessentiallya
    cornerstoneofEBM.
    TheEcosystem-BasedManagementToolsNetwork
    (2010)proposesthatEBMisaprocesswhich:
    Integratesecological,socialandeconomicgoals
    andrecognizeshumansaskeycomponentsofthe
    ecosystem
    Considersecologicalnotonlypoliticalandadmin-
    istrativeboundaries
    DeforestationintheAmazonbasinisleadingtoade-
    creaseinregionalrainfallbecauseofthelossofcloud-
    formingevapo-transpirationfromtheforest.Asthe
    climatebecomesdrieritislessabletosupportrainfor-
    estvegetation.Atthesametime,thelossofforestcover
    removesthecontinuoussupplyofdecayingvegetation
    thatgeneratesthenutrientsonwhichtheforestsdepend.
    Thesefeedbackloopsmeanthatapparentlymoderate
    deforestationoftheAmazonbasin,oftheorderof20%
    bysurfacearea,couldneverthelessreachatippingpoint,
    beyondwhichforestecosystemscollapseacrosstheentire
    Amazonbasin,withdevastatingimpactsonwatersecurity
    andotherecosystemservices.Suchimpactsmayhave
    far-reachingbeyondtheAmazonbasinitselfefects
    (e.g.onregionalagricultureandglobalcarbonstorage).
    Worryingly,deforestationisalreadyat18%.
    BOX 21.9
    Ecosystemsontheedge:theAmazonbasinforests
    andwater
    Source: World Bank (2010).
    WWDR4 513 ECOSYSTEMS
    Addressesthecomplexityofnaturalprocessesand
    socialsystemsandresultinguncertaintiesusing
    adaptivemanagement
    Engagesmultiplestakeholdersinacollaborative
    processtodeneproblemsandndsolutions
    Incorporatesunderstandingofecosystemprocesses
    andhowecosystemsrespondtoenvironmentalchang-
    es,whethernaturalorcausedorinuencedbyhumans
    Isconcernedwiththeecologicalintegrityofeco-
    systemsandsustainabilityofhumanusesofecosys-
    temsandecosystemservices
    Whenappliedtowater,EBMcandeliverwinwinsolu-
    tionsthatcontributetopovertyalleviationandeco-
    nomicdevelopment.Theyareoftenmorecostefective
    thanconventionalengineering-basedsolutions,butnot
    alwaysso.ApproachesshouldconsiderEBMsolutions
    alongsideotheroptions(e.g.hardengineering)and
    proceedonthemostholisticandbestevidencebase
    aspossible,factoringinrelevantuncertaintiesandrisks.
    Assessmentsofalloptionalapproachesshouldinclude
    benetsintermsofresilience/sustainability(riskreduc-
    tion)andtheco-benetsonofer,whichforEBMcanbe
    considerable.
    21.5.1Theroleofecosystemsinenhancingwater
    security
    EBMcandeliverspecicandimmediatewater-related
    benetscostefectively.Sustainingorrestoringecosys-
    temsusuallyalsoincreasesresiliencetochange,there-
    bymitigatingpresentandfuturerisksandenhancing
    sustainablewatersecurity.EBMapproachesalsoapply
    acrossscales,fromlocalinterventions(e.g.wetland
    restorationtoaddresslocalizedooding)tobasinscale
    andbeyond,andcanaddresssingleormultiplewater-
    relatedneeds.KeyareasinwhichEBMalreadyhasa
    proventrackrecordincludewaterquality(Box21.2)and
    regulatingtheextremesofwater,inparticularooding
    (Box21.10).Atallbutthesmallestscales,EBMisusually
    multifunctionalandrarelyastand-aloneapproachbut
    ratherintegratedintocatchmentlevelmanagementand
    includedforaddressingwaterstressunderdroughtcon-
    ditions(Box21.11).
    21.5.2Ecosystemsandintegratedwaterresources
    management
    AsdiscussedinthethirdeditionoftheWorld Water
    Development Report,integratedwaterresources
    management(IWRM)(consideredhereashomolo-
    gouswithintegratedriverbasinmanagement,IRBM)
    ispotentiallyoneofthemostusefulwaterresource
    managementtoolsatvariousscales.Inprinciple,IWRM
    involvesanintegratedapproachtolandandwaterman-
    agementwhichshouldrecognizethat,fromanecosys-
    temsfunctioningviewpoint,anydistinctionbetween
    thetwoisentirelyarticial.Inpractice,manyapplica-
    tionsofIWRMdonotfullyincorporateecosystem-level
    approaches.IWRMisoftenfocusedonvisible(surface)
    watermanagementandevenwheregroundwateris
    included(whichisbecomingmoreoftenthecase),soil
    moistureisoftenabsent.Inparticular,IWRMrarelyin-
    corporatesthemanagementofevapo-transpiration(e.g.
    theimpactsoflandcoverchange).Themanagement
    ofwetlands,asdriversoflocalandoftenbasin-scale
    hydrology,islikewiseincludedirregularly.IWRMcan
    indeedbecomplicatedanditsapplicationisevolving
    basedonlearningbydoing.Butbecauseoftheintimate
    relationshipbetweenecosystemsandwater,IWRMwill
    notbetrulyintegrated,orfullyefective,untilappliedat
    theecosystemscale.
    Rigorousecosystem-basedthinkinginIWRMrequires:
    Identifyinghowrelevantecosystems,ortheircom-
    ponentsthatmaintainwaterquantityandquality
    inagivenareaandalltheecosystemservicesthey
    provide(bearinginmindtheyalldependonwater)
    includingtheroleofterrestrialsystems,especially
    vegetationandsoilfunctionssupportwatersecurity
    Duetothecombinedfactorsofrisingsealevelandland
    subsidencethearticialood-protectionembankmentad-
    joiningpartofTheWash,anextensiveestuaryineastern
    England,wascomingunderincreasingpressurefromwave
    attackduringhightide.Itwasestimatedthatpotential
    breachofthecurrentdefenceswouldresultinooddam-
    ageapproaching20million.Thecostofrepairingand
    maintainingtheembankmentoveraperiodof50years
    wasestimatedat2.06million,whereasmanagedre-
    alignment(movingtheoodbanklandwardandenabling
    thedevelopmentofintertidalmarshesandmudatssea-
    wardoftherealignedbank)wascostedat1.98million,
    afordingoodprotectionoveraconsiderablylonger
    periodoftimeandcreatingsignicantbenetsfornature
    conservationandrecreation.Anadditional150,000was
    addedtothelocaleconomyintherstyearfollowingres-
    torationthroughincreasedrecreationaluseofthearea.
    BOX 21.10
    Wetlandrestorationasasustainableoptionto
    addressincreasingoodrisk:TheWash,United
    Kingdom
    Source: Friess et al. (2008).
    CHAPTER21 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 514
    Identifyingfactors,includingrisks,vulnerabilities
    anduncertainties,thatafectthefunctioningof
    thoseecosystemsandthereforeservicesandhow
    thisimpactswatersecurity
    Takingmeasuresto(a)managetheecosystemsothat
    itcontinuestodeliver,orincreasesdelivery,ofallthe
    benetsthatarerequiredand(b)minimizesrisks,vul-
    nerabilitiesanduncertaintiessoastotrytosafeguard,
    asfaraspossible,overallecosystemintegrityandresil-
    ience(evenbeyondanarrowwaterfocus)
    Toolsforimplementationcaninclude,forexample,re-
    movalofperverseincentives,includinglaws,regulations
    andnancialmechanisms,thatfavourecosystemdegra-
    dation(suchasgrantsforwetlanddrainageorconver-
    sion);paymentforecosystemservices(PES);andinvest-
    mentinecosystemrestorationandrehabilitation(where
    justiedthroughthoroughandimpartialanalysis).
    FurtherguidanceonIWRMinpracticehasbeenpro-
    videdbyanumberofinitiatives;forexample,the
    GlobalWaterPartnershipToolbox(2008).TheRamsar
    Wise Use Handbooks(fourthedition:TheRamsar
    ConventiononWetlands,2011)providecomprehensive
    guidanceonintegratingwetlandsintoIWRM
    especiallyRiver Basin Management(Handbook9),
    Water Allocation and Management (Handbook10),
    andManaging Groundwater(Handbook11).
    TheKomaduguYobeRiverecosystem,suppliedbyasubcatchmentofthevastLakeChadbasin,ispartofthenaturalinfra-
    structureofnorthernNigeria.Inthesemi-aridSahel,rainfallvariabilityishighandseveredroughtafrequenthazard.The
    greatmajorityofthebasinshumanpopulationwhichhasdoubledinthepastthreedecadestomorethan23millionlive
    inpoverty.Overthesametimeperiod,owintheriverfellby35%duetoconstructionoftwodamssincethe1970s,abstrac-
    tionofwaterforlarge-scaleirrigationandregionalreductioninrainfall.
    Asocietyalreadyinsocialandeconomiccrisiswasthusconfrontedwithever-increasingpressureonvitalwaterresources.
    Theriversnaturalcycleofseasonaloodinganddryinghadbeenreplacedbyperenniallowows,causinglossofbenets
    (ecosystemservices)thatcommunitieshadhistoricallyreliedon.Livelihoodsdependentonshing,farmingandherdingwere
    devastated.Fishhabitatsweresiltedup,thelossofseasonaloodsmeantthatcroplandremaineddry,andscarcityofwater
    ledtoconict.Withgrowingimpactsfromclimatechange,theadaptivecapacityoftheKomaduguYobeecosystemandthe
    communitiesitsupportsbecameevenmorefragile,justwhenresiliencewasneededmost.Thesituationwasnotuntypicalof
    manyriverbasinsinAfricaandelsewhereanditshistorytypiedbysectorbasedapproachestowater,lackofvaluationof
    thefullsuiteofbenets(services)availabletobemanagedandtheabsenceofanyecosystemlevelthinking.
    However,crisisstimulatedchange.Restorationoftheriverbasinsnaturalinfrastructure,alongsideexistingbuiltinfrastruc-
    ture,hasstrengthenedadaptivecapacityandresiliencetoclimatechange.Beginningin2006,thefederalandstategovern-
    mentsandotherstakeholders,includingdamoperatorsandfarming,shingandherdingcommunities,cametogetherto
    negotiateaplanforcoordinatingandinvestinginrestorationandmanagementofthebasin.Inadditiontoagreeingona
    CatchmentManagementPlan,theydraftedaWaterCharter,spellingouttheagreedprinciplesforsustainabledevelopment
    ofthebasinandtherolesandresponsibilitiesofeachstakeholder.Reformofwatergovernanceisenablingtransparentco-
    ordinationofwaterresourcedevelopment,includingremediationofdegradedecosystemsand,eventually,restorationofthe
    riversowregime.Dialoguehasreducedthenumberofcasesofconicttojustahandfulperyear,andgovernmentshave
    pledgedmillionsofdollarsinnewinvestmentforbasinrestoration.Thisprogressofers,foronce,apotentiallymoresustain-
    ablefuture.Ecosystem-basedmanagement(EBM)wasnotaseparateapproachbutintegrated,orratheraframeworkfor,
    moreholisticandinclusiveplanningandmanagement.Importantly,EBMdeliveredmoresustainablewatersolutionsandthe
    ecosystemwasnotregardedasauser(competingwithotheruses)butitsmanagementameanstodelivergreateroverall
    benetsfromwater.
    Source: Smith and Barchiesi (2009).
    BOX 21.11
    Ecosystem-basedmanagementintegratedintothemanagementoftheKomaduguYobebasin,Nigeria
    WWDR4 515 ECOSYSTEMS

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    UNESCO-IHPandUNESCO-IHE

    AuthorsShahbazKhanandPietervanderZaag
    ContributorsAmauryTilmant(majorcontributiontoSection22.3).Casestudies
    providedbyLuciaScodanibbio,HeatherMacKay,SharonMegdal,LnaSalam,
    PhilippusWester,AkhtarAbbasandFrankWalker.
    CHAPTER 22
    Allocating water
    UN-HABITAT/JuliusMwelu

    Water allocations in a majority of river systems and aquifers have already exceeded or are
    fast approaching water availability limits. Water diversions have to be reduced, and water re-
    allocated within sectors.
    Water entitlements, water allocation, water distribution and water use are dynamically linked.
    With an increasingly variable hydrological cycle and rapid socio-economic development,
    there is a need for adaptive allocation mechanisms that deal with this as well as with the
    accompanying uncertainties.
    In regions where there are large discrepancies between where the water is and where it is
    needed, the construction of large inter-basin transfer projects is likely to continue despite
    the recognized advantages of moving the products of water rather than the water itself.
    Increased rainfall variability and greater pollution loads can have disastrous consequences.
    New reservoirs that are built to deal with increased variability in river ow may often
    negatively afect water quality and aquatic ecosystems, which give rise to serious
    governance issues.
    In many cases, water re-allocation has been focusing on agriculture-to-urban water transfers
    where farmers are compensated by urban users for increasing the availability of water
    through temporary or permanent transfers. The rationale for such water transfers is often
    economic.
    As concern over the environment grows, some water managers are investigating innovative
    ways of enhancing environmental water transfers by changing the operating rules of dams to
    improve the seasonality and availability of water for ecosystems.
    Water banks have been created to improve the reliability of water markets. A public
    intermediary buys water from the willing sellers and sells it to buyers. Water trading markets
    can make more water available for high-value uses.
    When making water allocation decisions, the international community is increasingly
    recognizing that access to water is a human right.
    Water managers can benet from the experience of other sectors that deal with the
    allocation of scarce resources. They can see how these sectors deal with uncertainty and risk
    management.
    Water allocation policies need to recognize and correct racial and gender inequities in water
    use by addressing the expectations of all stakeholders in an equitable and transparent
    manner.
    Building a shared vision and trusted knowledge base is crucial for individual water users to
    make responsible decisions when promoting integrated water resources management at the
    river basin level.
    WWDR4 519 ALLOCATINGWATER
    FIGURE 22.1
    Waterentitlements,waterallocation,water
    distributionandwaterusearedynamicallylinked,
    andtakeplacewithintheboundaryof(changing)
    wateravailability
    22.1Allocatingwater
    22.1.1Introduction
    Awaterallocationsystemhasfourmainaspects,of
    whichwaterallocationisone:
    Water entitlements,whethertheyareformalorin-
    formal,conferontheholdertherighttodrawwater
    fromaparticularsource(LeQuesneetal.,2007).
    Theimportantpointhereisthattheentitlementis
    consideredlegitimatebyothers.
    Water allocationdescribestheprocessofsharingthe
    availablewaterbetweenlegitimateclaimantsanddis-
    tributingittothem(afterLeQuesneetal.,2007).
    Water delivery(orcontrol)isthephysicalactofsup-
    plyingwatertothosewhoareentitledtoit,insuch
    amannerthattheycanuseit.
    Water useisanydeliberateapplicationofwaterfor
    aspeciedpurpose(Perry,2007).
    Waterentitlements,waterallocation,waterdelivery
    andwaterusearedynamicallylinked,andarecon-
    strainedbytheamountofwaterthatisavailableat
    aspecictime.Usingwatercreatesexpectationsof
    similaruseinfuture.Ifsuchuseiscontinuedovertime,
    anentitlementemergeswhichmaybedifculttoig-
    noreorclaimback,yettheamountofwateravailable
    ispronetonaturalandman-madeuctuationsand
    changes(Figure22.1).
    Thesefourlinkedaspectscanbecharacterizedby
    lookingatthetimescaleoverwhichtheyoperate.
    Waterentitlementscanendureformanyyears,while
    waterallocationactivitiestypicallyadoptatimeho-
    rizonofonehydrologicalyear,oftentryingtoresolve
    issuesofwaterscarcitybyre-allocatingwaterbetween
    sectorsandbetweenandwithinseasons.Waterdis-
    tributionanddeliveryareoftenbasedonweeks,days
    andhours,andwateruseisaninstantaneousactivity.
    Asthehydrologicalcyclebecomesincreasinglyvari-
    able,andassocio-economicdevelopmentcontinuesto
    changerapidly,itisimportanttoestablishwhatkindof
    allocationmechanismscandealwithchangeefective-
    lyandexibly.
    Thischallengeareachapterreviewswaterallocation
    issuesandreferstoanumberofexamplesaroundthe
    worldwherechangeanduncertaintyweredealtwith
    ininterestingways.
    Thechapterrstoutlinesthemainissues.Itthenre-
    viewsnewwaterallocationparadigmsthatincorporate
    theroleofmarketsandreallocationbetweensectors,
    andsomemoderncomputationaldevelopmentsthat
    incorporatestochasticinformationtodealwithuncer-
    taintyandrisk.Thischapteralsohighlightsrecentde-
    velopmentsintheareaofallocatingwaterasahuman
    right.Finally,itdrawstheconclusionthatacommon
    visionandatrustedknowledgebasesharedbetween
    waterusersiskeyfortheindividualwaterusersto
    maketherightdecision.
    22.2Mainissues
    Allovertheworld,thepressureonwaterresourcesis
    increasing,leadingtosituationswherethereisnotal-
    waysenoughwatertosatisfyeveryonesneeds.Then
    choiceshavetobemadeabouthowtoshare,allocate
    andreallocatetheincreasinglyscarcewater.Water
    systemsareclosing,givingrisetodifcultdecisions
    abouthowwatershouldbediverted,howitshouldbe
    allocatedwithinsectorsandhowitshouldbetrans-
    ferredbetweensectors.Suchdilemmasthrowupde-
    batesofanormativekind:whatprinciplesguidedeci-
    sionsonwaterallocationandhowcantheprinciples
    ofequitableaccess,economicefciency,sustainability
    andcustomarynormsandvaluesbereconciledinspe-
    ciccontexts?
    Waterallocationhasstrongspatial and temporal di-
    mensions.Decisionscanspandecades,years,seasons,
    months,days,hoursandevenminutes.Thinkofthe
    grantingofwaterrightsorpermitstolargeirriga-
    tionschemesthatareexpectedtolastfordecadesor
    centuries;thenthinkofhourlyallocationschedulesfor
    Wateruse
    Waterdelivery Waterallocation
    Waterentitlements
    Wateravailability
    CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS CHAPTER22 520
    short-termreservoirreleasestocoverpeakdemandsin
    theelectricitygrid.Waterallocationisgenerallyalocal-
    izedactivity,butitmustconsiderlargerhydrologicalunits
    andtheexpectedinowsaswellastheresultingoutows.
    Manylong-lastingwatersystemsdisplayaremarkable
    capacitytocopewithchange.Insuchsystems,which
    oftenlackthephysicalcapacitytofullycontrolwater
    ow,institutionsevolvedalongsidespecicphysical
    designprinciplesthatwereabletodealwithlong-
    termvariabilityinsupplyanddemand.Suchinstitu-
    tions,whichhavetheirrootsincustomsandtraditions,
    havetendedtostronglyembraceequityandfairness,
    whichgivesthemsufcientlegitimacytoenforcedeci-
    sions.ExamplesarequotedbyLeach(1961)andMartin
    andYoder(1988)ontwoAsiancases.SeveralLatin
    AmericanexamplesarereferredtoinVanderZaag
    (1993)andBoelensandDavila(1998);whileManzungu
    etal.(1999)andMohamed-KaterereandVander
    Zaag(2003)refertoanumberofAfricanexamples.
    Lankford(2004)hasproposedincorporatingtheex-
    ibilityofthesesystemsintothedesignofnewsmall-
    holderirrigationsystems(Figure22.2).
    Butpressureontheresourceisincreasingeverywhere,
    andexistingaswellasnewwaterinstitutionsface
    morefrequentwaterallocationdilemmasthatarein-
    creasinglycomplexandmaybeconsideredwicked
    (Box22.1).Existingrulesneedtobeadaptedandnew
    rules,rightsandduties,andorganizationalarrange-
    mentsmayneedtobecrafted.
    Thereareoftenlargespatialdiscrepanciesbetween
    wherethewaterisandwhereitisneeded.Sothecon-
    structionoflargeinter-basintransferprojectsislikely
    tocontinue,despitetheacknowledgedadvantagesof
    movingtheproductsofwaterratherthanthewaterit-
    self(thatis,thevirtualwaterconceptinthecontextof
    proposedtransferschemes.See,forexample,Maetal.
    (2006)onChinaandVermaetal.(2009)onIndia.
    Thereismoreandmoredemandforfood,bre,feed
    andbiofuels.Butinmanyriversystems,largeinter-
    sectoraltransferswillhavetobemadefromtheagri-
    culturaltotheurbanandindustrialsectors.Thewater
    shortageinagriculturemustleadtoenhancedwater
    productivity,bothfrombluewater(cropsthatuseir-
    rigationandsupplementaryirrigation)andfromgreen
    water(rainfedcrops).
    Theincreasingpressureonwaterresourcesismainly
    drivenbyfourinter-relatedprocesses:
    Populationgrowthandmobility;
    Economicgrowth;
    Increaseddemandforfood,feedandbiofuel;and
    Increasedclimatevariability.
    FIGURE 22.2
    Designingaexibleirrigationsystembasedon
    risksharing,proportionalwaterallocationandan
    adaptableirrigatedarea
    Source: Lankford (2004, g. 1, p. 39), with permission from Elsevier.
    Asbasinsbecomeclosed,theinterdependenciesofstake-
    holders,thewatercycle,aquaticecosystemsandinstitutional
    arrangementsincrease.Insuchcontexts,especiallywhere
    competitionforwaterisacute,watermanagementreadily
    givesrisetowickedproblems(RittelandWebber,1973).
    Wickedproblemsareclustersofinter-relatedproblems
    characterizedbyhighlevelsofuncertaintyandadiver-
    sityofcompetingvaluesanddecisionstakes.Wicked
    problemscannotbesolvedbyanysingleorganization
    andareintractablesincewhatconstitutesasolutionfor
    onegroupofindividualsoftencausesanewproblemfor
    another.Becausewickedproblemsarecharacterizedby
    competingviewsandofteninvolvepowerdisparities,they
    enterintotherealmofpolitics(Westeretal.,2008).
    BOX 22.1
    Wickedproblemsinwatermanagement
    Dividing-type
    abstractionpoint
    Variableupstream
    ows
    Variablecanalow,many
    intakesandothersources
    Dividedow(proportional)
    downstream;sharedrisk
    downstream
    Highrisk,maincanal
    owandcommandarea
    arevariable
    WWDR4 521 ALLOCATINGWATER
    Theresultsoftenleadtounsustainablewateruse,
    whichmanifestsindryinglakes(forexample,the
    Lerma-ChapalacasedescribedinBox22.7),estuaries
    becomingmoresaline,andfallinggroundwaterlevels
    (forexample,theDeschutescasedescribedinBox22.4,
    andtheAndhraPradeshcasedescribedinBox22.8).
    Someoftheexternaldriversinteractinunexpected
    waysaswasseenwiththepoliciesandmeasures
    aimedatmitigatingclimatechangethroughsubsidies
    onbiofuelproduction.Theissuesofwaterquantity
    andwaterqualityareoftenlinked.Theincreasedvaria-
    bilityinrainfallcombinedwithagrowingpollutioncan
    havedisastrousconsequences,forexampleincases
    wheredryseasonowsdwindleandchemicalconcen-
    trationsandwatertemperaturesurgetounprecedent-
    edlevels.Newreservoirsthatarebuilttodealwith
    increasedvariabilityinriverowsafectwaterquality
    andaquaticecosystems,usuallynegatively.
    Asaresultofsuchdevelopmentsinnearlyeveryre-
    gionoftheworld,institutionschargedwithwateral-
    locationfacedilemmasthataredifculttosolve,yet
    theyareoperatingunderincreasedscrutinyandmay
    nothavesufcientknowledgeorunderstandingof
    hydro-socialsystemdynamics.Thisgivesrisetoseri-
    ousgovernance issueswaterinstitutionsarecharged
    tomakedecisions,theoutcomesandconsequencesof
    whicharedifculttoanticipate.Willwaterinstitutions
    beabletoadapttoshiftingcircumstancesandchang-
    inglevelsofuncertainty?(Box22.2.)
    22.2.1Accesstowaterisahumanright
    Theallocationofwatershouldadheretothelawand
    helptoimplementlegalconventionsatnationaland
    transboundarylevels(see,forexample,Wolf,1999;
    VanderZaagetal.,2002;Drieschovaetal.,2008).
    Theinternationalcommunityisincreasinglyrecogniz-
    ingwaterasahumanright(Box22.3).Thisrightis
    referredtobothimplicitlyandexplicitlyinmany
    internationalandregionaltreatiesanddeclarations.
    AmongthesearetheUniversalDeclarationofHuman
    Rights,theInternationalCovenantonCiviland
    PoliticalRights(ICCPR),theInternationalCovenant
    onCivilandPoliticalRights(ICCPR),theGeneva
    Convention,andtheAfricanCharteronHumanand
    PeoplesRights.
    Afterthisbriefoverviewweconcludethissectionby
    identifyingfourkeyissuesinallocatingwater:
    Howshouldwaterbeallocatedintimesofshort-
    age?Shouldcertaintypesofuse(domestic,envi-
    ronmental,industrial,energyandagricultural)have
    morepriorityorshouldtheshortagebesharedin
    anequitablemanner?Shouldestablishedusesand
    usersbeprotectedfromnewcomers?Istherearole
    Uncertaintyhasbeendenedasthelackofcertaintyaboutthenatureofaphenomenon,process,system,quantity,estimate
    orfutureoutcome,arisingfromincompleteknowledgeoftherelevantphenomenaorprocesses,measurementerror,model
    error,andimprecisionassociatedwithrandomfactors(UNISDR,2009).
    Threetypesofuncertaintyshouldbeconsideredinwaterallocationdecision-making:
    1herstuncertaintyrelatestowateravailability,andtheneedtobeabletoestimatefuturesurfaceandgroundwateravail-
    abilityatdiferenttimes.Thisuncertaintyisstronglylinkedtoclimateandourlackofunderstandingofhydrologicalpro-
    cesses.Itnotonlyrelatestothestochasticnatureoftheseprocesses(whichisinfactafairlywellunderstooduncertainty),
    butalsotothenon-stationarityofthesestochasticprocesses,associatedwithlong-termchangesinclimateandlanduse,
    andthecomplexfeedbacksbetweenthem.
    1heseconduncertaintyrelatestoourinabilitytopredictfuturewaterdemandsanduses.Thefurtherwelookintothefu-
    ture,themorethisuncertaintyincreases.Thisuncertaintyisstronglylinkedtouncertaintiesaboutfuturepoliciesonadi-
    versespectrumofissuesandinmanysectors,whicharedifculttoanticipateandpredict.
    1hethird,andarguablythelargestuncertainty,isposedbyourinstitutionsandorganizations.Itrelatestotheriskthat
    ourinstitutionsmaynotbeaddressingtherealissues,ormighttakedecisionsthattheylatercometoregret.Thiscan
    occurifdecisionsarebasedonunreliabledatathataretakenasfactsoronmodelsthatrepresentrealityinbiasedways,
    orbecauseinadequatemonitoringsystemswereused.Thistypeofuncertaintyincreaseswhensituationsthathaveto
    bedealtwiththatareuniqueandhavenohistoricalprecedent.Inachangingworld,theseuniqueeventswilloccurmore
    frequently.
    BOX 22.2
    Principaluncertaintiesrelatedtowaterallocation
    CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS CHAPTER22 522
    formarketsandmarkettransactions?Ifso,howcan
    socialandenvironmentalpublicgoodvaluesassoci-
    atedwithwaterbeprotected?
    Waterrights,permitsandentitlements,aswellasal-
    locationsystems,providesecurityandpredictability.
    Theiraimistoreducerisk.Butthereisatrade-of
    betweenreliabilityandquantitythemoresecure
    thesupplyis,thesmallertheow.Howcanwater
    allocationsystemsdealwithuncertaininowswhile
    maximizingbenecialuse?
    Howcanwaterinstitutionsbetransformedinto
    learningorganizationsthatareforwardlooking,can
    anticipatechangeandadapt?
    Morecompetitionforwaterandtensionsbetween
    usersseeminevitable.Thesemayleadtodisputes
    andconictsthataremostlikelytomanifestthem-
    selveslocally.Howcanweanticipatetheserising
    tensions,andwhatstrategiesexisttotransform
    themintoenhancedcooperation?
    Theabovekeywaterallocationissueswillbediscussed
    later.First,weturntosomeofthenewwateralloca-
    tionparadigmsdesignedtodealwithuncertainty.
    22.3Newwaterallocationparadigmsinthe
    faceofuncertainty
    Globalchange,socio-economicdevelopment,new
    demographicsandclimatechangeallincreasecompe-
    titionforwater.Societiesfacehardchoiceswhenallo-
    catingwaterbetweencompetinguses.Becausewater
    isavitalresourceusedinmultiplesectors(including
    theenvironment),itsallocationisinherentlyapolitical
    andsocialprocesswhichopensittothescrutinyof
    manyandvariedinterestedparties.
    Becausemarketsforthisvitalresourceareusuallyab-
    sentorinefective,allocatingofwaterbetweencom-
    petingdemandsisachievedadministrativelytaking
    intoaccount,oftenconicting,socialobjectivessuch
    aseconomicefciency,socialequityandecological
    integrity.Variousallocationmechanismshavebeende-
    velopedinordertoreconciletheprinciplesofefcien-
    cyandequity(Dinaretal.,1997).
    Todealwiththegrowingdemandworldwideforen-
    ergyandwater,societieshaveaugmentedsupplyby
    constructingmorepowerplantsandtransmissionlines
    andmorehydraulicinfrastructuressuchasdamsand
    pumpingstations.Butthisstrategyhasreachedits
    limitinmanyregions.Intheenergysector,forinstance,
    risingconcernaboutglobalwarmingandenergysecu-
    rityhavefavouredconservationandthedevelopment
    andimplementationofefciency-promotingmeasures.
    Forwater,asimilartrendcanbeobservedwiththe
    closureofriverbasinsthatis,whenavailablewater
    resourcesarefullycommitted(Molleetal.,2010).More
    attentionisnowbeinggiventostrategiesthatattempt
    toincreasetheproductivityofwaterthroughtem-
    poraryreallocation,eitherwithinthesamesectoror
    acrosssectors.(Thiscontrastswithpermanenttrans-
    fers,wherewaterrightschangehandspermanently.)
    Atemporaryreallocationstrategylendsitselftoa
    watermarketandtomarket-liketransactionswhere
    high-valuewateruserswouldcompensatelow-value
    waterusersforthetemporaryrighttousetheirwater.
    LundandIsrael(1995)reviewtypesofwatertransfers
    suchaspermanenttransfers,dry-yearoptions,spot
    markets,waterbanks,andsoforth.
    Mostofthestudiesonwaterreallocationreportedin
    theliteraturefocusontransfersfromagriculturaltour-
    banusewherefarmersarenanciallycompensated
    byindustriesand/ormunicipalitiesforincreasingthe
    wateravailabletothemthrougheithertemporaryor
    permanenttransfers.
    In2002,theCommitteeonEconomic,SocialandCultural
    Rights(2002,articles11and12)denedtherighttowater
    astherightofeveryonetosufcient,safe,acceptable,
    physicallyaccessibleandafordablewaterforpersonal
    anddomesticuses.Itfurtherspeciedthatsignatories
    shouldensureaccesstoaminimumessentialamountof
    water[and]adequatesanitation,andshoulddevelopand
    implementanationalwaterstrategyandmonitorprogress
    madeonrealizingtherighttowater.Theprimaryrespon-
    sibilityfortheimplementationoftherighttowaterfalls
    uponnationalgovernments.
    On28July2010,theUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly
    adoptedanon-bindingresolution,sponsoredbyBolivia,
    whichdeclaredthataccesstocleanwaterandsanitation
    isafundamentalhumanright.Theresolutioncalledon
    memberstatesandinternationalorganizationstoofer
    nancialandtechnicalassistance,inparticulartodevel-
    opingcountries,inordertoprovideclean,accessibleand
    afordabledrinkingwaterandsanitationforeveryone.The
    resolutioninvitedtheUNIndependentExperttoreport
    annuallytotheGeneralAssembly.While41countriesab-
    stained,theresolutionreceivedthesupportof122ofthe
    MemberStates.
    Source: Lna Salam, personal communication (2010).
    BOX 22.3
    Waterasahumanright
    WWDR4 523 ALLOCATINGWATER
    Therationalebehindagriculture-to-urbanwatertrans-
    ferisofteneconomic.Theproductivityofwaterin
    urbanusesisgenerallymuchhigherthaninagricul-
    ture.Agriculturecanalsocopebetterthanothersec-
    torswithalargervariationinsupply.Forexample,
    BookerandYong(1994)analysedtheefciencygains
    offromintrastateandinterstatewatertransfersinthe
    ColoradoRiverbasinintheUnitedStates.Theyfound
    thatsignicantgainswerepossible,especiallyifboth
    consumptiveandnon-consumptiveusevalueswere
    consideredinthereallocationprocess.
    Wardetal.(2006)investigatetheefectivenessof
    market-basedwatertransferstodealwithsevereand
    sustaineddroughtsintheRioGrandebasin,alsointhe
    UnitedStates.Usingahydro-economicmodelofthe
    basin,theyfounddroughtdamagecouldbereduced
    impressivelyifaninterstatemarketprogramwereen-
    acted.Thismarketwouldreallocatedrought-induced
    waterlossesfromhigher-valuewaterusestolower-
    valueuses.Morespecically,farmerscouldreduce
    theirlossesbytradingwaterformoneywheneverthe
    incomefromthetradedwaterislargerthanthein-
    comethatwouldhavebeenproducedusingthesame
    waterinagriculture.
    Watermarketsaremoretheexceptionthantherule.
    Infact,watermarketsarepronetomarketfailure
    meaningthatprivatepropertyandtheresultantfree
    marketcannotbereliedontoachieveefciencyor
    augmentsupplythroughwaterreallocation.Themain
    reasonsformarketfailureare:thepublicgoodna-
    tureofsomewateruses,theexternalitiesassociated
    withallocationdecisions,andthepresenceofnatural
    monopolies.Notethattransactioncostsmustalsobe
    considered.Ifwatermarketsaretoservesociety,water
    rightswouldhavetobecarefullydenedandman-
    aged,andthiswouldrequirecontinuouspublicsector
    involvement,whichmayleadtohighlyregulatedwater
    markets.
    Despitetheseissues,incentivesforwaterexchang-
    espersist.Thecreationofwaterbanks,suchasthe
    CaliforniaWaterBank,isanattempttoimprovethere-
    liabilityofwatermarkets(Jercich,1997).Here,apublic
    intermediaryactstocreateapopulationofbuyersand
    sellers.Thepublicintermediarybuyswaterfromthe
    willingsellersandthensellsittobuyers.Withthissys-
    tem,watermanagersarecondenttheycanndthe
    watertheyneedatapredictableprice.Italsomeans
    thatpublicgoodservices,suchasenvironmental
    ows,caninprinciplebeprotected.Thecaseofthe
    DeschutesRiverbasinnicelyillustratesthefeasibility
    ofthisstrategy(Box22.4).
    Adry-yearoption(Characklisetal.,2006)isanal-
    ternativetowatermarketsandwaterbanks.Itisa
    contingentcontractbetweenabuyerandaseller.The
    dry-yearoptiongivesthebuyertheright,butnotthe
    obligation,tousewaterownedbytheseller.Usually,
    thecontractspeciesthecircumstancesunderwhich
    theoptioncanbeexercised.Forexample,itcouldbe
    atargetowintheriverorthewaterlevelinares-
    ervoir.Oneadvantageofadry-yearoptionisthatit
    dealswiththeproblemofhoarding,whichcanbeob-
    servedwithwateruserswhorequireahighreliability
    ofsupply.
    Asmentionedabove,mostofthewaterreallocation
    studiesfocusonagriculture-to-urbanwatertransfers.
    However,withgrowingenvironmentalconcerns,some
    watermanagersarealsoinvestigatingtheoptionof
    Thiscaseisaboutreconcilingwaterdemandsbetween
    diferentusesandusers,inasituationwherethereare
    stronginterconnectionsbetweengroundwaterandsur-
    facewater.Tribal,environmentalandirrigationinterest
    groupscametogetherinthemid-1990stoimprovestream
    owandwaterqualityinDeschutesRiverbasininOregon
    intheUnitedStates.Thishasmaterializedlargelyinre-
    storingstreamowtodepletedstreams.Ithasalsoassist-
    edmunicipalitiestomeetthegroundwaterneedsofrap-
    idlygrowingpopulations,andhelpedirrigationdistrictsto
    improvetheirwaterdeliverysystemsandmaintainnan-
    cialstabilityinfaceofchangingcustomerbases.
    Waterbankingtoolsweredesignedspecicallytorespect
    existingwaterrights,andtonotjeopardizethevalidityof
    theserightswhentheyaretemporarilytransferredtothe
    waterbankforusebyotherpeopleforinstreamowres-
    toration.Thesystemisexibleandoferstemporaryand
    permanentoptions,whichbuildswidersupportamong
    waterusersandpotentialmarketparticipants.Italsohas
    astrongregulatoryfoundationwhichprovidesstability
    andaccountability,thusmeetingconcernsoftheregula-
    toryagencies,especiallythoseresponsiblefortheadmin-
    istrationofwaterrights.
    Source: Heather MacKay, personal communication (2010).
    BOX 22.4
    DeschutesRiverBasin:Waterbankingforsurface
    waterandgroundwater
    CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS CHAPTER22 524
    environmentalwatertransfers(seeBoxes22.4and
    22.8).Forexample,HollinsheadandLund(2006)
    analysetheleastexpensivestrategiesforstagedsea-
    sonalwaterpurchasesforanenvironmentalwater
    acquisitionprogrammeinCalifornia.Suen(2006)use
    amulti-objectivemodeltocharacterizethetrade-of
    relationshipbetweenenvironmentalowsandhuman
    needs.Tilmantetal.(2010)determinethereservoir
    operatingpoliciesandtheopportunitycostforpower
    companiestorestoreoodsintheZambeziRiverba-
    sin(Box22.5).
    22.3.1Riskmanagementandhedging
    Anyattemptstoformulatethewaterresourcesalloca-
    tionproblemmustbemadewithoutaperfectknowl-
    edgeoffuturewatersupplies.Hydrologicaluncertainty
    exposesrisk-aversewatermanagersanduserstoa
    volume(supply)risk,whichhastobemanaged.The
    traditionalapproachtotheproblem,whichconsists
    ofincreasingsupplybyconstructingreservoirsand
    pumpingstations,hasreacheditslimitinmanycases.
    Thisisbecausethesocial,environmentalandeconomic
    costshavebecomesohighthattherearenowincen-
    tivesfornon-structuralmeasuressuchaswatertrans-
    ferstoincreasesupply.
    Whereirrigatedagricultureisimportant,thissector
    canabsorbsomeoftheuctuationsinclimate,and
    thusserveasakindofbuferbytransferringriskfrom
    urbanuserstofarmersusinganoptioncontract(see
    above).Theideaisthatoneparty(urbanusers)iswill-
    ingtopayapremiumfortransferringthesupplyrisk.
    Inotherwords,onepartyseekstosecureadditional
    waterinordertoreduceitsexposuretohydro-climatic
    variability.Thesupplier(thefarmers)mustbeableand
    willingtobearfurthersupplyrisksaftercompensa-
    tion.Withsucharisk-transfermechanism,theben-
    etsmustofcourseexceedcostsforbothparties.A
    reviewofagriculturalproductionrisksandtheirman-
    agementcanbefoundinWorldBank(2005).Gomez
    RamosandGarrido(2004)designanoptioncon-
    tractbetweenfarmersandaSpanishcity.Brownand
    Carriquiry(2007)proposeacombinedoptioncontract
    insurancesystemtoincreasethereliabilityofsupply-
    ingwatertoManilainthePhilippines.Theideaisto
    transformthevariabilityfromthehydrologicaltothe
    nancialspacewhereitcanbelevelledoutusinginsur-
    anceproducts.
    Riskmanagementisalsofairlycommoninthehydro-
    powersectorwherehydropowercompaniesareex-
    posedtothehydrologicalsupplyrisk.Waterrelease
    decisionsarecombinedwithsophisticatednancial
    productssuchasforwardcontractsandoptionsto
    limittheriskexposureofthecompany(Moetal.,2001,
    Kristiansen,2004).Withtheliberalizationoftheelec-
    tricitysectorinmanycountries,hydropowercompa-
    niesnowfaceanewsourceofrisk:thepricerisk.This
    cannotbehedgedusingbilateralcontractsbecause
    pricestendtoincreaseduringdryperiods,whichis
    preciselywhenthehydropowercompaniescannotrely
    ontheirownproductiontomeettheircommitments.
    Thiscreatesacontractingdilemmaforthehydropower
    TheZambeziRiverbasinisoneofthelargestbasins
    inAfrica.Itisalargelyuntappedresourcewherewa-
    terisusedprimarilyforgeneratingelectricity.Thereare
    fourmaindamsontheZambezi.TheKaribaDam(1959,
    Zambia/Zimbabwe)andtheCahoraBassaDam(1974;
    Mozambique)arebothlocatedonthemainstem.They
    haveinstalledcapacityof1350MWand2075MWrespec-
    tively.TheothertwoarelocatedontheKafueRiverin
    Zambia.TheKafueDamhasaninstalledcapacityof
    900MW,whiletheItezhItezhiDamactsasastorage
    dam.
    Signicantworkisunderwaytoplannewreservoirsinthe
    basin.Theselargestoragefacilitieshavetraditionallybeen
    designedandmanagedtomaximizerevenuesfromener-
    gygeneration.Thishasalteredthehydrologicalregimeby
    disruptingtheecosystemsandtheirlivelihoodfunctions
    suchassheries.Uptonow,eachofthereservoirshas
    operatedinisolation.
    Implementinghydropowertoenvironmentwatertrans-
    fersintheZambezirequiresthedevelopmentofnew
    reservoiroperatingpoliciesthathelptorestoredegraded
    ecosystemsinthelowerZambeziwithoutundueadverse
    efectsongeneratinghydroelectricity.Onewaytoachieve
    thisistocoordinatereservoirreleases.Thecoordinated
    operationofthereservoirsasonesystemcouldreduce
    theenvironmentalimpactwhileminimizingthebenets
    thathadtobeforegone.Preliminaryndingsindicatethat
    thereductionintotalenergyoutputvariesfrom1.5%to
    6%,dependingonthetypeofoodtoberestoredinthe
    lowerZambezi.Thequestioniswhethersocietywishesto
    incursuchcosts(orforegosuchbenets)inordertore-
    ducenegativeenvironmentalimpacts.
    Source: Tilmant et al. (2010).
    BOX 22.5
    Modellingthebenetsofjointlyoperated
    reservoirsinmitigatingenvironmentalimpactin
    theZambeziRiverbasin
    WWDR4 525 ALLOCATINGWATER
    sector:iflightlycontracted,itwillbeexposedduring
    lowpriceperiodswhichmayoccurfrequentlyandlast
    forsometime;ifheavilycontracted,itwillbeexposed
    toextremelyhighpricesinthedryperiods,whenit
    maynotproduceenoughtomeetitscontract(Barroso
    etal.,2003).
    Waterresourcesallocationproblemsaddresstheissue
    ofhowwatershouldbecombinedwithotherscarce
    resourcestoobtainthegreatestreturn.Thisinturnim-
    pliesthattheconsequencesassociatedwiththealloca-
    tiondecisionscan,inprinciple,bevalued.Becausethere
    usuallyarenomarkets,andevenwhentherearethey
    areusuallyabsentorinefective,allocationdecisions
    canseldomrelyonmarketprices.Instead,itisneces-
    sarytoassessaccountingorshadowpricesthatreect
    thevalueofwater(Young,2005).Toachievethis,econ-
    omistshavedevelopedandimplementedvariousnon-
    marketvaluationtechniquestoaddresswaterresources
    managementproblems(Loomis,2000).
    22.4Opportunities:Howthekeywater
    allocationissuescanbeaddressed
    Thewaterallocationchallengesidentiedinthisreport
    aremajorandcomplex.Yettherearealsoopportuni-
    tiesthatcanmitigatetherisksanduncertaintiesthat
    weface.Inthissection,weaddressthefourkeywater
    allocationissues:watershortages,uncertainty,antici-
    patingchangeanddealingwithconict.
    22.4.1Dealingwithwatershortages
    Howshouldwaterbeallocatedwhenthereisashort-
    age?Shouldcertaintypesofuse(domestic,environ-
    mental,industrial,energygenerationoragricultural)
    beprioritizedoverothers,orshouldtheburdenof
    shortagesbesharedinanequitablemanner?Should
    establishedusesandusersbeprotectedfromen-
    croachmentsbynewentrants?Istherearoleformar-
    ketsandmarkettransactions?Ifso,howcansocialand
    environmentalpublicgoodvaluesassociatedwithwa-
    terbeprotected?
    Allthewaterbodiesinthecasestudiesreviewedfaced
    periodsofseverewatershortage,andtheyalldealt
    withthisindiferentways.IntheMurrayDarlingbasin
    inAustralia,amaximumlevelofwaterabstractionwas
    setandwaterreallocationoccurredthroughtransfer-
    ringwateruserights,eitheronashort-termbasisor
    overthelongterm(Box22.6).IntheLermaChapala
    basininMexico,irrigatorshadtodecreasetheamount
    ofwatertheywereusingforirrigationandwereforced
    toreleasewaterstoredintheirreservoirstosupple-
    mentdwindlinglevelsinLakeChapala.Thiswasdone
    toensureGuadalajaraswatersupplyandtosup-
    portenvironmentalandtourismneeds(Box22.7).In
    AndhraPradeshinIndia,irrigatorsreducedground-
    waterabstractionsincaseswhererechargerateswere
    lowasaresultoflowrainfall.Becausetheyareaware
    thatwaterscarcityisarecurringproblem,theyhave
    shiftedtocropsthatneedlesswatertogrow,but
    whichfetchhighermarketvalues.Asaresult,farmin-
    comeshaveincreasedovertime(Box22.9).
    Whatwelearnfromthesecasesisthatwaterisstill
    beingusedinefcientlyandwastefully.Butmorecan
    bedonewithless.Thisrequiresanewattitudeto
    water;wemustbecomemorewaterwise.Waterde-
    mandmanagementiscentraltothis,andsignicant
    gainscanstillbemade.Inthedomesticandindustrial
    sectors,demand-sidemeasuresarenormallymore
    cost-efectivethansupply-sidesolutions.Inirriga-
    tion,thisisoftennotthecasebecauseaconversion
    tomoreefcientirrigationtechnologiestendstobe
    capitalintensive.Here,therstoptionistochangeto
    growingcropsthatneedlesswater,butfetchahigher
    priceatmarket.Limitedandtemporarywatertrans-
    fersfromagriculturetothedomesticandindustrial
    watersectorsmaycreateconditionsthatallowfarm-
    erstoadapt.
    Incountriesthatexperienceeconomicwaterscarcity,
    supply-sideoptionsmustnotbediscarded.Suchcoun-
    triesrequireagreaterabilitytophysicallycontrolwater.
    Anopportunitymaypresentitselfinthefutureinthe
    formoffundsbeingmadeavailabletohelpcountries
    adapttoclimatechange.Withthesefunds,newinfra-
    structurecanbeprovidedthatisbetteratbufering
    societiesandwatersystemsagainstincreasedclimate
    variability.Ifproperlydesignedandimplemented,such
    infrastructurecouldgiveanenormousboosttopoverty
    alleviationinmanyruralareasandcouldthuscontribute
    toachievingtheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.
    Thesetypesofinvestmenthavethepotentialtobe
    noregretsmeasures;however,thechallengewillbe
    foradequatepolicyanddesigndecisionstobemade
    intherstplace.Thereisdebateaboutwhetherwa-
    terbuferinginfrastructureshouldbelargeandcen-
    tralizedorsmallanddistributedbothofwhichpose
    verydiferentinstitutionalrequirements,governance
    demandsandenvironmentalimpacts(VanderZaag
    andGupta,2008).Obviouslysuchinfrastructure
    CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS CHAPTER22 526
    BOX 22.6
    Sustainablediversionslimits(SDLs)inthe
    MurrayDarlingbasin
    developmentneedstoconsiderissuesofadaptive
    capacity,androbustness,aswellasissuesrelating
    totheconjunctiveuseofgroundwaterandsur-
    facewater(seetheDeschutesandAndhraPradesh
    cases).Variousaspectsassociatedwiththisaredealt
    withindetailinotherchaptersofthisWorld Water
    Development Report.
    22.4.2Dealingwithuncertainty
    Waterrights,permitsandentitlements,aswellas
    allocationsystems,providesecurityandpredictabil-
    ityinanuncertainworld.Theiraimistoreducerisk.
    Butthereisatrade-ofbetweenreliabilityandthe
    amountofwateronecanusethemoresecurethe
    smallertheow.Howcanwaterallocationsystems
    betterdealwithuncertaininowswhilemaximizing
    benecialuse?
    Sucharisk-basedapproachneedsapreciseunder-
    standingofthewatersystemhowmuchwaterisavail-
    able,howmuchisneeded,andwhenandwhereisit
    needed.Thisrequirestheabilitytoestablishaccurate
    wateraccountingsystems(MoldenandSakthivadivel,
    1999)thatincludequantiedknowledgeofwateruxes
    (inows,outows,abstractions,consumption,etc.)and
    thechangesingroundwaterandsurfacewaterstocks
    inagivenbasinoveragivenperiodoftime.
    1
    Detailed
    monitoringofwaterstocksanduxescancombine
    conventionalwaysofdatacollectionwithnewways
    thatuseremotelysenseddataforrainfall,evaporation,
    openwaterlevelsandchangesingroundwaterstorage.
    TheMurrayDarlingRiverbasinisthemostsignicantriv-
    ersysteminAustralia.Thebasincovers14%ofAustralias
    mainlandandcoversaround1millionkm2acrosslarge
    partsofQueensland,NewSouthWales,Victoria,South
    AustraliaandalloftheAustralianCapitalTerritory.
    InaccordancewiththeWaterAct2007,theMurray
    DarlingBasinAuthoritypreparedabasinplantomanage
    waterresources.Theplanensuresthatfuturewateruse
    isplacedonasustainablefootingsothatthereisenough
    waterforahealthyenvironmentaswellasforotheruses.
    TheplansetsmandatorySustainableDiversionLimits
    (SDLs)forsurfacewaterandgroundwater.Thelimitsmust
    reectanenvironmentallysustainablelevelofwaterwith-
    drawal,whichisdenedasthelevelatwhichwatercan
    betakenwithoutcompromisingkeyenvironmentalas-
    sets,keyecosystemfunctions,theproductivebaseorkey
    environmentaloutcomes.Aswellasmeetingthebasins
    environmentalrequirementswiththeSDLs,theWaterAct
    2007alsorequiresthebasinplantooptimizesocial,eco-
    nomicandenvironmentaloutcomes.
    Source: Akhtar Abbas and Frank Walker, personal communication
    (2010).
    BOX 22.7
    UnresolvedwaterallocationintheLermaChapala
    basin
    TheLermaChapalabasinstraddlesveMexicanstates
    andprovidessurfacewaterandgroundwaterfornearly
    900,000haofirrigationfarms.Italsosupplementsthe
    waterneedsofMexicostwolargestcities,MexicoCityand
    Guadalajara,andthetouristicChapalaLakeatitsdown-
    streamend.TheLermaChapalabasinisnowclosed
    asaresultofincreasinghumanpressureonitswaterre-
    sources,whichhavedepletedthelevelsofbluewaterand
    madethebasinverysensitivetoclimaticuctuations.
    Thelackofaccuratewateraccountinginthebasin,and
    therelativelywetperiodinthe1960sand1970s,resulted
    inanoverestimationofwateravailabilityandtheover-
    buildingofthebasin.Thisisacommonphenomenonin
    closingbasins,andmakesitverydifculttoreducewater
    uselevelsonceabasinhasclosed.
    Theinstitutionalresponsetobasinclosurehasfocused
    onsurfacewaterallocationmechanisms,resultinginthe
    1991surfacewaterallocationagreement.Thecontinued
    declineofLakeChapalaandGuadalajarasincreasingcon-
    cernsaboutitswatersupply,ledtoarevisionofthe1989
    waterallocationagreementbetween1999and2004.The
    negotiationswereconductedatthehighestpoliticallevel
    betweenthebasinstates,Guanajuato,Jalisco,Mexico,
    MichoacanandQueretaroandfocusedonachievingan
    agreementonrainfallandrunofdataandnewformulas
    forwaterallocation.
    Oneoftheresultswasthetransferofwaterfromup-
    streamreservoirstoLakeChapala,whichalienatedirriga-
    tionfarmersfromthenegotiationprocess.Thewaterchal-
    lengesinthebasinremain,andwatercriseswillinevitably
    recurduringperiodsoflowrainfall.
    Whatcanbelearnedfromthiscaseisthatdifcultzero-
    sumallocationdecisionsneedlegitimacy,bothscienti-
    callyandpolitically.Scienticlegitimacyrequiresreliable
    dataandinformation,andsoundinterpretationofthese
    data;politicallegitimacyrequiresaninclusiveapproach
    thatinvolvesallthosewhowillbeafectedbyallocation
    decisionsinthedecision-makingprocess.
    Source: Phillippus Wester, personal communication (2010).
    WWDR4 527 ALLOCATINGWATER
    managementstructurecanbesupportedbyappropri-
    ateaccesstoscienticdata,expertiseandknowledge
    thatcanhelptoselectalternativemanagementchoic-
    esandshareddecision-makingonhowtousescarce
    waterresources.
    22.4.4Dealingwithconict
    Itseemsinevitablethattherewillbeariseincompe-
    titionbetweenwaterusersaswellasdiferencesof
    opinionandothertensions.Thismayleadtodisputes
    andconict.Howcanweanticipatetheserisingten-
    sions,andwhatstrategiesaretheretotransformthem
    intoenhancedcooperation?
    Competitionoverwatercanescalateintoconict.But
    wheredecisionprocessesareconsideredlegitimate
    andfair,competitioncanalsoevolveintocooperative
    deals.Difcultquestionsareraisedwhenmakingallo-
    cationdecisions.Twoexamples:
    Source: Garduo et al. (2009).
    BOX 22.8
    FarmermanagedgroundwatersystemsinAndhraPradesh
    TheAndhraPradeshregionofIndiafacessevereproblemswiththeover-exploitationofgroundwater.Inthe1990s,aproject
    startedtopromoteparticipatoryhydrologicalmonitoringamongsmallholderfarmers.ThiswasfollowedbytheAndhraPradesh
    FarmerManagedGroundwaterSystem(APFAMGS)project,whichisacommunity-basedprojectthatfocusesondevelopingthe
    capacityofgroundwateruserstomanagetheirresourceinasustainableway.
    TheAPFAMGShasademand-sideapproachtogroundwatermanagement,wherefarmerslearnabouttheirgroundwatersystemin
    suchawaythattheycanmakeinformeddecisionsabouttheirwateruse.Sustainablegroundwatermanagementisfeasibleonlyif
    usersunderstandtheoccurrence,cycleandlimitedavailabilityofgroundwater.Andtheymustalsoacceptthatcollectivedecisions
    takenongroundwaterconservationultimatelysafeguardtheirowninterests.
    Thus,theburdenofcontrollingwaterextractionistransferredtoindividualsincommunitieswhoknowthewhyandhowand
    actonsoundinformationratherthanbecausetheyareboundbyrulesandregulations.Theprojectdoesnotoferanyincentives
    intheformofcashorsubsidiestheassumptionisthataccesstoscienticdataandknowledgewillenablefarmerstomakethe
    rightdecisions.
    Thishashadmeasurableefects:
    Changingtocropsthatneedlesswaterandadoptingnewirrigationmethodshaveledtoreductionsintheamountofwaterused
    Farmershaveconsistentlyimprovedtheirproftabilitywiththenetvalueofoutputsperhanearlydoubling
    Acombinationofthefollowingfactorsappearstoexplainthesuccessofthisapproach:
    Opportuneinformationongroundwateravailabilityasakeyinputtofarmersriskmanagementparadigmwithrelatively
    smallmonsoonsusuallybeingfollowedbyreducedsowinginthedryseason;
    1helowstoragefastresponsehardrockaquifersthatarereplenishedannuallyprovideanaturallimitonwateroveruse
    Lstimatesoftheavailablegroundwaterandprojecteddemandsbeingprovidedintimetoinformdryplanting
    Pepeatingcropwaterplanningoveranumberofyearsprovidesasoundframeworkforfarmersdecisions
    Peductionsingroundwateroverusearenotcomingfromaltruisticcollectiveactionbutfrommanyindividualfarmersmakingin-
    formedrisk-managementdecisionshencenoauthoritativeleadershipisrequiredforenforcement.
    Muchcanbelearnedfrompredictionofungaugedba-
    sins(PUB)experiences.
    22.4.3Anticipatingchange
    Howcanwaterinstitutionsbetransformedintolearn-
    ingorganizationsthatareforwardlookingandcanan-
    ticipatechange?
    Allthecasestudiesinthischapterhighlighthowim-
    portantitistounderstandthehydro-socialsystemand
    itsdynamics.TheAndhraPradeshcaseongroundwa-
    termanagementdemonstratestheknowledgedimen-
    sionmostconvincingly(Box22.8).Themostimportant
    lessonisthatstakeholdersthemselvesneedtohave
    anintimateknowledgeofandappreciationforthere-
    sourceonwhichtheyrelywhichleadstoaninterest
    incarefullymonitoringsystembehaviour.Thiscreates
    akindofdistributedintelligenceamongagroupof
    waterusersthatmaybeconsideredaprerequisitefor
    anyorganizationtolearn.Theco-learningstakeholder
    CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS CHAPTER22 528
    havebeeninvolvedindecision-makingandwherethey
    havebeenrespectedandreceivefairtreatment,thenit
    islikelythattheoutcomewillbesustainedandenforced.
    Thisrequiresnorms,suchasthenormthatahousehold
    thatistoberesettledduetodamconstructionmaynot
    becomeworseof,notnowbutalsonotinthefuture
    (WCD,2000).Multi-stakeholderplanningintheAlouette
    RiverinCanada(Box22.9)isanexampleofinclusivede-
    cision-makingthathasfar-reachingconsequences.
    Anotherwayofaddressingwaterallocationsconict
    potentialfocusesonpromotinginterdependencybe-
    tweentheusersofthesharedwaterresource,whilesi-
    multaneouslyunlockingtheadditionalbenetsthatcan
    begainedthroughcooperation.Examplesarebenet-
    sharingprojectsandrewardsforenvironmentalservices
    systems,whichcanbedevelopedbetweenusergroups
    withincountriesbutalsobetweenripariancountries.
    Examplesofhowthisworkedbetweenripariancountries
    canbeseeninthecasesoftheSantaCruzRiverbasin
    (Box22.10),theZambeziRiverbasin(Box22.4)andthe
    BlueNileRiverbasin(Box22.11).
    Inthelate1980s,Canadasthird-largestelectricityutil-
    ity,BCHydro,cameundermountingpublicpressure
    fromanumberofcommunitygroups,arangeofNGOs
    andthemediatochangethewaystheirdamsoperated.
    Therewerecallsforthereleaseofin-streamows,and
    increasedparticipationindecision-makingprocessessur-
    roundingwatermanagementintheprovince.
    Anopportunitytoimplementchangecamein1994when
    BCHydroappliedforanexpansionofgeneratingcapac-
    ityatitsStaveFallspowerplant.Yieldingtodemandsthat
    owsinthecontiguousAlouetteRiver(whichfeedsthe
    StaveFallsscheme)beaugmented,theprovincialgovern-
    mentdecidedthatawateruseplanbeconductedasa
    conditionforgoingaheadwiththeStaveFallsupgrade.
    Asaresult,amulti-stakeholderprocess,whichcameto
    beknownastheAlouetteWaterUsePlan(AWUP),was
    launchedin1995toreviewtheoperatingplansofthe
    Alouettescheme.
    TheAWUPwasaninclusiveandscience-basedprocess,
    whichhadthepotentialtosolvelongstandingproblems.
    Itwasbasedonstructureddecisionmaking,whichcom-
    binedobjective,scienticdatawiththevaluespeople
    placedondiferentwateruses.Thiswascrucialforits
    acceptance.
    Theprocesswashailedforbuildingtrustbetweenthedif-
    ferentpartiesandforgraduallyreplacingtheantagonism
    thathadcharacterizedpreviousinteractionsbetweenBC
    Hydroandotherstakeholders.Asaconsequence,thepro-
    vincialgovernmentmandatedBCHydrotodrawupwater
    useplansforallitsfacilitieswithinave-yearperiod.This
    resultedinthedevelopmentof23WUPs,whichrevised
    theoperatingplansof30BCHydrodams.
    Source: Lucia Scodanibbio, personal communication (2010).
    BOX 22.9
    Multi-stakeholderplanningintheAlouetteRiverin
    Canada
    Whichismoreimportant,thelivelihoodofasher-
    womanlivinginaremotevillagenearariver,oran
    urbanmiddle-classpersonwhorequiresinternet
    andelectricity?
    Two(hypothetical)communitiesliveonopposite
    sidesofawatersheddivide.Oneislocatedina
    relativelywater-richbasinandtheotherinawater-
    scarcebasin.Howdoesthesecondcommunitys
    righttodevelopmentrelatetotherstcommunitys
    righttoliveinahealthyandundisturbedenviron-
    ment?(GuptaandVanderZaag,2008)
    Thesequestionspointatthenormativeandpoliticaldi-
    mensionsofallocationdecisions.Wherestakeholders
    Climatechange,hydrologicalvariability,andrapidurban
    growthcharacterizetheUnitedStatesMexicoborder
    regionandposesignicantchallengesfortheplan-
    ningandallocationoflimitedwaterresources.Onthe
    ArizonaSonoraborder,theupperSantaCruzRiverhas
    onlyephemeralsurfaceows.Meetingthewaterneeds
    of300,000inhabitantsgreatlyincreasesgroundwater
    dependence.Thebasinsaquiferissharedbythesistercit-
    ies,Nogales,Arizona,andNogales,Sonorabutground-
    waterisallocatedseparatelyoneithersideoftheborder
    inaccordancewithprevailingnationalandstatelawsand
    institutions.
    Adequatewastewatertreatmenthasenlargedthewater
    pieonbothsidesoftheborder.Thiswaspossiblethrough
    jointbi-nationalmanagementofurbanwastewater,which
    istheresultofyearsofcooperation.Twoimportantles-
    sonsofparticularrelevancetobi-nationalgroundwater
    managementare,rst,thatinformalcollaborationbased
    onsharedtrustmustbestrengthenedthroughinterna-
    tionalaccords,andsecond,thatscienticdataandjoint
    studiesprovidethebasisforoperationalagreements.
    Source: Sharon Megdal, personal communication (2010).
    BOX 22.10
    Groundwateruseandre-useinthetransboundary
    SantaCruzRiverbasin
    WWDR4 529 ALLOCATINGWATER
    TheupperBlueNileRiverBasininEthiopiahasahuge
    potentialforhydropowergenerationandirrigatedagri-
    culture.Controversiesexistastowhetherthenumerous
    infrastructuraldevelopmentprojectsthatareonthedraw-
    ingboardinEthiopiawillgeneratepositiveornegative
    externalitiesdownstreaminSudanandEgypt.Inorderto
    examinetheeconomicbenetsandcostsofdeveloping
    reservoirsontheBlueNileforEthiopia,SudanandEgypt,
    Gooretal.(2010)developedabasin-wideintegrated
    hydro-economicmodel.
    Themodelintegratesessentialhydrologic,economicand
    institutionalcomponentsoftheriverbasininorderto
    exploreboththehydrologicandeconomicconsequences
    ofvariouspolicyoptionsandplannedinfrastructuralpro-
    jects.Unlikemostofthedeterministiceconomic-hydro-
    logicmodelsreportedintheliterature,astochasticpro-
    grammingformulationhasbeenadoptedinorderto:
    Understandtheefectofthehydrologicuncertaintyon
    managementdecisions;
    Determineallocationpoliciesthatnaturallyhedge
    againstthehydrologicalrisk;and
    Assesstherelevantriskindicators
    Thestudyrevealsthatthedevelopmentoffourmegadams
    intheupperpartoftheBlueNileBasinwouldchangethe
    drawdownrellcycleoftheHighAswanDam.Shouldthe
    operationofthereservoirsbecoordinated,theywoulden-
    ableanaveragesavingforEgyptofatleast2.5x10
    9
    m
    3
    a
    -1

    throughreducedevaporationlossesfromtheLakeNasser.
    Moreover,thenewreservoirs(Karadobi,Beko-Abo,
    MandayaandBorder)inEthiopiawouldhavesignicant
    positiveimpactsonhydropowergenerationandirrigation
    inEthiopiaandSudan:atthebasinscale,theannualen-
    ergygenerationisboostedby38.5TWha
    -1
    ofwhich14.2
    TWha
    -1
    duetostorage.Moreover,theregulationcapacity
    oftheabovementionedreservoirswouldenableanin-
    creaseoftheSudaneseirrigatedareaby5.5%.
    Sedimentuxesposesanotherimportantdimensiontothese
    developmentplans,whichwerenotconsideredinthisstudy.
    Source: Goor et al. (2010), with some areas of text reproduced.
    BOX 22.11
    TriplewinontheBlueNilethroughtransboundary
    cooperationoninfrastructuredevelopment
    Inseveralcountries,changesinthewaydamsoperate
    havebeenpromptedbyre-allocatingwaterfromcon-
    sumptivetoenvironmentalusesWattsetal.(2011).
    IntheUnitedStates,anongoingefortknownasthe
    SustainableRiversProjectischangingoperationsatUS
    ArmyCorpsofEngineersdams.Theprojectcurrentlyin-
    volvestwenty-ninedamsineightriversystemsasdemon-
    strationsitesfornationalimplementation.
    IntheYangtzeRiver,China,aproposalisbeingadvanced
    thatproposestomoveood-riskmanagementoutofhy-
    dropowerreservoirsandtoinvestaportionoftheconse-
    quentincreasedrevenuefromgeneratinghydropowerfrom
    theadditionalstorewaterintoood-riskmanagementon
    theoodplainandecosystemrestorationandconservation.
    InSouthAfrica,theBergRiverProjectistherstlargein-
    streamdamthatwasdesignedaccordingtointernational
    bestpracticestandards,suchthatitcanreleasebothlow
    andhighowsthatwillcoincideascloselyaspossible
    withnaturalinowsandnaturaloodevents.
    InAustralia,aseriesoftrialvariableowreleasesfrom
    DartmouthDamintheMurray-DarlingBasinimplemented
    andmonitoredbetween2001and2008demonstratethat
    itispossibletoreducethenegativeimpactsoftransferring
    consumptivewaterbetweenreservoirsbyalteringestab-
    lisheddamoperationpractices.Theresultsfromthesetrials
    wereusedtodevelopnewinterimoperatingguidelinesfor
    DartmouthDam.
    Theseexamplesdemonstratethatmoresustainableap-
    proachesfordamplanningandoperationsarepossible
    andrequireclosecollaborationbetweenparticipatingor-
    ganizationsandstakeholders.Toachievesustainableriver
    managementatglobalscaleswillrequireconsiderably
    moreinvestmentintrialsanddemonstrationsitesthatcan
    illustratenewapproaches,opportunitiesandsolutions.
    Source: Robyn Watts, personal communication (2010), from the
    results of the UNESCO Workshop Challenges and Solutions for
    Planning and Operating Dams for Optimised Benets held in Paris,
    2628 October 2010.
    BOX 22.12
    Innovativeapproachesforimprovingdam
    planningandoperationsforoptimizedwater
    allocationbenets
    Potentialconictsbetweenwaterconsumersand
    environmentalwaterusescanberesolvedthrough
    changingtheoperatingrulesofdams(Box22.12).
    Newapproachestodamplanningandoperationsthat
    optimizewaterallocationbenetsacrossarangeof
    resourcesandvaluesarerequiredtoachievemoresus-
    tainabledamoperations.Thesesolutionsmustoccurat
    thelevelofentiresystemsbecausedamsareonlyone
    elementoflargerwatermanagementsystems.
    CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS CHAPTER22 530
    InSouthAfrica,theNationalWaterAct(No.36of
    1998)introducedtheWaterAllocationReform(WAR)
    programmetoaddressraceandgenderimbalances
    thathadbeencreatedinthewatersectorasaresult
    ofdiscriminatorylegislationinthecountryinthepast
    (Seetal,2005).WARderiveditsmandatefromthe
    Constitution,theNationalWaterPolicy,theNational
    WaterActandotherrelatedlegislation.ThePosition
    PaperforWaterAllocationReforminSouthAfrica
    outlinedtherulesforallocatingwatertopromoterace
    andgenderreform,whileatthesametimesupporting
    thegovernmentsprogrammesforpovertyeradication,
    jobcreation,economicdevelopmentandnationbuild-
    ing.Thisincludedaddressingtheexpectationsofthe
    historicallydisadvantagedmajoritySouthAfricans,but
    alsodealingwiththefearsanduncertaintyofahistori-
    callyadvantagedminorityprimarilybyminimizing
    theimpactonexistinglawfulusersandsupportingthe
    stabilityoftheruraleconomy.
    Conclusion
    Waterallocationliesattheheartofwatermanage-
    ment.Inaworldthatexperiencesgradualandsudden
    changes,intermsofpopulation,diet,landuse,eco-
    nomicmarketsandclimate,waterallocationisanin-
    creasinglyimportanttopic.
    Theexperiencesreviewedinthischaptershowthat
    suchconditionsrequireasoundknowledgeaboutwa-
    teravailabilityandwateruse,aswellasthecapacityto
    monitorinfrastructure.Interactionsbetweengroundwa-
    terandsurfacewaterneedtobeunderstood,asdothe
    efectsthatchangesinlandusehaveonbothground-
    waterandsurfacewateruxesatdiferentlevels.
    Itisuptoinstitutionstomakesenseofthestatusquo
    andguidedecision-making.Thisisnottrivial,asin
    moreandmorecases,allocationdecisionsarezero-
    sum.Often,alargevarietyofsectoralinterestsneeds
    tobeconsideredandweightedaccordingtosocial,
    economic,ecological,culturalandpoliticalcriteria.
    Suchcriteriaaredifculttoputunderoneencompass-
    ingmetric,soitisnoteasytoreachconsensusonpref-
    erencesandpriorities.Theprinciplesunderlyingalloca-
    tiondecisionsshouldthereforebeknown,andbeseen
    tobelegitimateandjust.
    Finally,andimportantly,achangingenvironmentde-
    mandsthatinstitutionsbecomelearningorganizations
    thatarereadytodevelopandimplementadaptive
    managementpractices.
    Someofthecasesreviewedinthischapterhaveshown
    thattools,suchaswateraccountingandintegratedhy-
    droeconomicmodels,canassistthewaterallocation
    process.Basedonagoodunderstandingofsystem
    interactions,optimaldecisionscanbereachedwhich
    allowfaircompensationtobegiventothosewhohave
    toforegosomeimmediatewaterbenets.
    Insomecases,market-likemechanismscanassistin
    ndingoptimalsolutions,forexamplewhereuncer-
    taintyandriskcanbetransferreddiferentiallybe-
    tweentheinterestedsectorsorparties,dependingon
    theirabilitytocope.
    Inmostcases,itwasshownthatbuildingtheknowl-
    edgebaseofwaterusersistheessentialelementthat
    themanyindividualwaterusersneedtobeableto
    reachtherightdecisions.
    Thereisaneedforefectivestakeholderengagement
    indecision-makinginordertoensuretransparency
    andfairtreatment.Theenvironmentalsustainability,
    economicviabilityandsocialacceptabilityofwateral-
    locationdecisions,restsontruestakeholderengage-
    ment,whichcomesfromrecognizingtheirdemocratic
    righttoinuencethemanagementofwaterresources.
    Adistinctionmustbemadebetweenthecommonly
    practisedcosmeticstakeholderconsultationsandtrue
    empowermentwhereacommunitytakescontrolofits
    watermanagementfuture.Truestakeholderempower-
    mentleadstomorelegitimateandcost-efectivesolu-
    tionsthathaveabetterchanceofbeingimplemented.
    Itistimetorethinktheoperationsofwaterinfrastruc-
    tureinawaythatbothenhancesthesynergybetween
    waterusers,andfostersthebenetsofcooperation.
    Systemsneedtobeexible,whichcanbeachieved
    throughacombinationofinvestmentinbothinfra-
    structureandhumanresourcesandinnovativeman-
    agementsolutions.
    Thewaterreformprocessalsoneedstorecognizeand
    correctracialandgenderinequitiesinwateruseby
    addressingtheexpectationsofallstakeholdersinan
    equitableandtransparentmanner.
    WWDR4 531 ALLOCATINGWATER

    Notes
    1 Suchinformationwillenabletheinclusionofthestateofthe
    waterresourceinnationalaccounts,viz.theUnitedNations
    StatisticsDivisionsStandardforEnvironmentalEconomic
    AccountingforWater(SEEA-W),andtheUNsinternational
    recommendationsforwaterstatistics(UN,2010);seealso
    Brouweretal.,2005).

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    UNDESA

    AuthorsJosenaMaestu(UNDESA,UNWDPAC)andCarlosMarioGmez(University
    ofAlcalandIMDEA)
    AcknowledgementsWiththesupportofJackMoss(AquaFed),DavidCoates(UN
    CBD),PeterBorkeyandRobertoMartinez-Hurtado(OECD),andDiegoRodriguez
    (WorldBank).ThankstoJakeBurke(FAO),RudolphCleveringa(IFAD),ClaudioCaponi
    (WMO),TiLe-Huu(UNESCAP),NikhilChandavarkar(UNDESA),ThomasChiramba
    (UNEP),andWilliamCosgroveandRichardConnor(WWAP)forcommentsandmate-
    rialsprovidedandtoMariaMercedesSanchez(UNDESA)forproofreading.
    CHAPTER 23
    Valuing water
    Shutterstock/TonyV3112

    Failure to properly recognize the full value of water, including its benets and costs, is one of
    the root causes of water resources mismanagement and the political neglect of water issues.
    A valuation of the benets of water is essential in order to improve the decisions of
    governments, international organizations, the donor community and other stakeholders.
    Valuation is a powerful instrument for making the public aware of waters many benets.
    Without a doubt, it brings the less-visible benets of water into the public arena.
    Providing reliable information on the benets of water development and water resources
    conservation will help to convince governments and stakeholders that water needs to be
    given priority in national policies. Having the right information will help to target investment,
    make real diferences to economies and societies and so help to eradicate poverty.
    Water valuation is central to the water-related decisions of public and private agents. It
    can help water managers and stakeholders to choose between water supply and demand
    alternatives and to recognize the options that will improve welfare while simultaneously
    sustaining ecosystem services. Water valuation also helps water managers to design
    subsidies, public incentives and economic instruments that respond to current water
    challenges.
    Water valuation is a tool that can be used to shape cooperative agreements to protect and
    share the benets of water resources conservation.
    More eforts need to be made to analyse the costs and benets of water and to incorporate
    this analysis into decision-making. This helps in the move towards more integrated and
    holistic socio-economic approaches. Ways of looking at the valuation of water have been
    shifting from a rather limited focus on the economic benets, to a more comprehensive focus
    that also takes into account social, cultural and non-market values. Valuation methods need
    to be chosen and adapted so that they respond better to policy questions and management
    needs.
    WWDR4 535 VALUINGWATER
    23.1Introducingtheissues
    Waterisessentialforhumanlife.Itisusedinthepro-
    ductionoffood,thegenerationofenergyandtheman-
    ufactureofgoods.Itisvitaltotheeconomyandforpre-
    servingthestructureandfunctioningofecosystemsand
    alltheenvironmentalservicestheyprovide(Box23.1).
    Theimportanceofthesebenetsmakestheprovisionof
    waterservicescruciallyandintimatelylinkedwithdevel-
    opment,bothasanintegralpartofastrategyforsocio-
    economicprogressandasapreconditionforholdingon
    totheadvancesthathavealreadybeenmade.
    However,decisionsabouthowwaterisusedand
    managedandabouthowscarceresourcesshouldbe
    conservedarestillbeingtakenusingonlypartofthe
    informationonitsmultiplebenets.Thenon-visible,
    externalandindirectbenets(andcosts)ofusingwa-
    teraremostlyignoredbyenduserswhentheydecide
    howmuchwatertouseandwhattouseitfor.Thisis
    oftentrueofbusinesseswhentheymakedecisions
    aboutwhattoinvestinandproduce;offarmerswhen
    theydecidewhatcropstogrow;andofgovernments
    andinstitutionswhentheymakedecisionsaboutprior-
    itiesforwaterinvestment,managementandallocation.
    Thislackofunderstandingofthemultiplebenetsof
    waterresultsinwaterissuesbeinggivenalowpolitical
    priority.Italsocausesfragmentationofresourcesand
    underinvestment,oroverinvestment,inwaterinfra-
    structure.Ultimately,thisresultsinwaterbeinggivena
    lowpriorityinnationaldevelopmentprogrammesand
    instrategiesforreducingpoverty.Italsoleadstoinef-
    cienciesinhowwaterisusedinthemanyareasofthe
    economywhereitisanessentialproductioninput.
    Valuation,orvaluing,isaprocessthatjudgestheim-
    portanceofwaterforhumanwelfare.Itreferstoall
    thewaysthatcanbeusedtoidentify,assess,measure
    andeventuallyassignavaluetotheimportancethat
    eachbenet,andpotentialbenet,hasforhumanwel-
    fare.Bringingthisknowledgetothepolicyarenacan
    improvewatermanagementinmanysignicantways.
    Valuationsoftheeconomicandsocialdevelopment
    benetsofwaterwillpushwatermanagementissues
    upthepoliticalagendaandwillhelpdecision-makers
    tomakeinformedjudgementsaboutdevelopment
    opportunitiesandchallenges.Valuationisalsoimpor-
    tantbecausetherearetrade-ofstobeconsidered
    whenexaminingthevariousmanagementoptions.
    Sometimesusingavailablewaterforonepurpose
    meansforgoingthebenetsthatanotherusewould
    bring.Valuationresultsininformationthatallowseco-
    nomicefciencyandpoliticalandsocialprioritiestobe
    addressedmoretransparently.Itmightalsohavearole
    inresolvingwaterconictsbyindicatingthepotential
    sharedbenetsthatcomefromcooperatingtopre-
    servecriticalwaterassets(suchastransboundaryriver
    basinsorcommonpoolundergroundwaters)rather
    thancompetingfortheiruse.
    23.1.1Valuingthebenetsofwatersothatitcanbe
    madeapriorityinthepoliticalagenda
    Waterisimportantfordevelopment.Butifthisisso,
    whydosomanypoorcountriesstilllackwaterin-
    frastructures,havedifcultybenetingfromwaters
    productiveusesandsuferfrompooraccesstobasic
    sanitationandwatersupplyservices?
    Partoftheanswerliesinthefactthatmostoftheben-
    etsobtainedfrom(andthecostsincurredby)invest-
    inginwaterandwatermanagementareexternaltothe
    agenciesandrmsmakingtheinvestments.Valuation
    showsthatthebenetsthatcountriesderivefromhav-
    ingwaterexceedthebenetsobtainedfromthedirect
    productiveusesofwater.Inordertounderstandthis,it
    isnecessarytoanalysehowtheoverallproductivityof
    allsectorsisconstrainedbytheavailabilityandquality
    ofwaterfacilities(Kemp,2005).
    Directusevalues:Thedirectusesofwaterresourcesfor
    consumptionincludeinputstoagriculture,manufacturing
    anddomestichouseholds.Non-consumptionusesinclude
    hydroelectricitygeneration,recreation,navigationand
    culturalactivities.
    Indirectusevalues:Theindirectenvironmentalser-
    vicesprovidedbywaterincludewasteassimilationand
    theprotectionofhabitats,biodiversityandhydrological
    functions.
    Optionvalues:Theserefertothevalueofhavingtheop-
    tiontousewaterdirectlyorindirectlyinthefuture.
    Non-usevalues:Theseincludewatersbequestvalue
    (passingonthisnaturalresourcetofuturegenerations)
    andtheintrinsicvalueofwaterandwaterecosystems,
    includingbiodiversity,thevaluepeopleplacesimplyon
    knowingthatawildriver,forexample,exists.
    Source: UNSD (2007).
    BOX 23.1
    Categoriesofeconomicvalues
    CHAPTER23 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 536
    Betteraccesstoandmorewidespreadavailabilityof
    waterexpandstheproductivecapacityoftheecon-
    omyby,forexample,increasingtheproductivityof
    landorlabour,andimprovingthequalityofcrops,
    energyandotherproducts.Valuationalsoshowsthe
    importantbenetsthatimprovedwaterinfrastruc-
    turesandservicesbringtoproductionhavingac-
    cesstowaterisacost-efectiveandsafewayofre-
    ducingproductioncosts.Farmersincomesincrease
    substantiallywhentheyshiftfromrain-fedtoirrigat-
    edagriculture.Hydroelectricityprovidesenergyfor
    productionandreducesrelianceonexpensivefossil
    fuels.Deliberationontheimportanceofthesedirect
    benetshassupporteddecisionstoinvestinmulti-
    purposeinfrastructuresasanefectivewayoffos-
    teringproductivityandsavingcostsinalltheactivi-
    tiestowhichwatercontributesasaproductioninput
    (Box23.2).
    Valuationalsohighlightstheimportanceoftheintan-
    giblehealthbenetsofimprovingbasicsanitation
    andaccesstosafedrinkingwater.Improvedhealth
    meansfewerlostworkingdaysandincreasedpro-
    ductivity.Theefectsofbetterhealthcanbeseenin
    peoplelivinglongerandhavingabetterqualityof
    life.Betterservicescontributetohumandevelopment
    byallowingpeopletolookandplanfurtherintothe
    future.Theyalsoenhancecapacitysothatpeoplesee
    thebenetsofspendingtimeacquiringaneducation,
    intheknowledgethattheywillhavethebetterhealth
    conditionsthatwillallowthemtobenetfromitinto
    thefuture.
    TheWorldHealthOrganizationbelievesthathalf
    theconsequencesofmalnutritionarecausedby
    TheBhakramultipurposedamsysteminnorthernIndia
    generatedindirectbenetsintwoways.First,theinter-
    industrylinksthatwereforgedresultedinincreasesin
    thedemandforinputsfromothersectors.Second,the
    directoutputsofthedamledtohigherlevelsofincome,
    increasedwagesandgenerallyhigherlevelsofeconom-
    icprosperity.Foreveryrupeeofdirectbenetinterms
    ofelectricitygenerated,farmsirrigated,watersupplied,
    oodscontrolledanddroughtprevented,theindirectben-
    etsamountedtoanadditional0.9rupee.Thegainsper-
    ceivedbyruralworkerswerealsohigherthanthegains
    forotherruralandurbanhouseholds.Thisshowedthat
    oneofthebenetsoftheprojectwasthatitledtoamore
    equaldistributionofincome(Bhatiaetal.,2007).
    ThemultiplierfortheSobradinhoDaminBrazilwases-
    timatedatbetween2.0and2.4dependingonwhatas-
    sumptionsareappliedtothesupplyoflabourandcapital.
    ThismeansthatforeveryUS$1invested,therewasatotal
    economicreturnofUS$2toUS$2.4.
    Source: SIWI, WHO and NORAD (2005, p. 22).
    BOX 23.2
    Valuingwatersindirectbenetstosupport
    investmentdecisions
    TABLE 23.1
    OverallbenetsofachievingtheMDGsforwaterandsanitation
    Types of benet Breakdown Monetized benets (in US$)
    Time saved by improving water and
    sanitation services
    billionworkingdaysayear US$63 billion a year
    Productivity savings millionproductivedays
    gained in the 1559 age group
    millionschoolattendance
    days a year
    billionhealthydaysfor
    children under ve
    USbillionayear
    Health-care savings USbillionayearfor
    health agencies
    USmillionforindividuals
    Value of deaths averted, based on
    discounted future earnings
    USbillionayear
    Total benets US$84 billion a year
    Sources: OECD (2010); Prss-stn et al. (2008); Hutton and Haller (2004).
    WWDR4 537 VALUINGWATER
    inadequatewater,sanitationandhygiene.Providing
    accesstosafedrinkingwaterinpoorsocietiesisone
    ofthemostefectivelabour-savingmeasures.Forgov-
    ernmentstoconsiderjustthenancialvalueofhealth-
    caresavingsintheirbudgetdecisions,wouldbeto
    overlooktheimportanceoflessvisible,butinmany
    casesmoresignicant,economicvalues(Table23.1).In
    poorcountries,thisisaconcernbecausewhenthe-
    nancialbenetsarelowerthantheeconomicones,the
    efortmadetoimprovewaterservicesisusuallyless
    thanwhatisrequiredforeconomicdevelopment.
    Informationaboutthemacroeconomicperformanceof
    poorcountriesmeasuredingrossdomesticprod-
    uct(GDP),employmentandproductivityhashelped
    toconrmthevitalcorrelationbetweenwaterand
    economicdevelopment,andthepotentialthatwater
    developmenthastoboosteconomicgrowth:Countries
    withoutimprovedwatermanagementandaccessto
    waterandsanitationservices,withpercapitaan-
    nualincomebelowUS$750grewonaverageatonly
    0.1%peryear,whichisequivalenttobeingtrappedin
    thesamelevelofincome,whilecountriesinthesame
    rangeofincomebutwithbetteraccesstowaterser-
    vicesgrewat3.7%,aratethat,ifsustainedinthelong
    term,mightguaranteetheirescapefrompovertyand
    helpthemconvergetomiddleincomeeconomies
    (SIWI,WHOandNORAD,2005).
    23.1.2Valuingthebenetsofwatercansupportpro-
    poorstrategiesandbettertargeting
    Thebenetsofwater,whenproperlyvalued,showthat
    projectsaimedatimprovingaccesstobasicsanitation
    andsafedrinkingwatermakeeconomicsense.And
    whatismoreimportant,theyshowthattheyareefec-
    tiveinpromotingequity,instimulatinggenderfairness
    andinopeningnewwindowsofopportunityforthe
    poorandforfuturegenerations.Valuingthemanynon-
    nancialbenetsofwaterisessentialtoenablesocie-
    tiestotakeadvantageofdevelopmentopportunities,to
    focusonpovertyalleviationandtoavoidunsustainable
    trendsinwaterpolicy(Box23.3andFigure23.1).
    Valuationofthehealthbenetsofinvestinginwater
    andimprovingwatermanagementshowsthatprovid-
    ingbasicwaterandsanitationservicesisessentialto
    haltthepovertyspiraloflowincome,lowsavingsand
    lowinvestmentinhumanandphysicalcapital.Poor
    peopleinAfricaspendatleastathirdoftheirincomes
    onthetreatmentofwater-relateddiseaseslikemalaria
    anddiarrhoea.Thecostoftheproductivetimelost
    duetothesediseasesaswellaswidespreadhuman
    Inastudyin2008,theWorldBankpresentedanestimate
    oftheeconomicefectsofmortalityfrommalaria,pneu-
    moniaandacutelowerrespiratoryillnessesinGhanaand
    Pakistan.Thesamestudyalsolookedattheprevalence
    ofdiarrhoeaandmalnutrition.Ahumancapitalapproach
    wasappliedtoquantifylostwagesthatresultedfrom
    environmentalfactors.Thelong-termdirectandindirect
    costsinGhanaandPakistanwereestimatedat9.3%and
    8.8%,oftheirrespectiveGDPs.Atleasthalfofthisimpact
    isattributedtowater-relatedenvironmentalrisks.
    The1991choleraepidemicinPeruwastreatedatacostof
    US$1billion,butcouldhavebeenpreventedbyexpending
    US$100million.
    Source: Moss et al. (2003).
    BOX 23.3
    Valuingtheefectsthatwater-relateddiseases
    haveonproductivitycanimproveinvestment
    targeting
    BOX 23.4
    Valuingthebenetsofwatercandene
    internationalprioritiesandtargetsupportatthepoor
    TheCopenhagenConsensussoughttocomparethecosts
    andbenetsofabroadrangeofdevelopmentinterven-
    tionsinordertohelpdeneinternationalpriorities.Itdid
    thisbyevaluatingbenetcostratios(BCRs)usingstand-
    ardizedmethodologiesacrossanumberofsectors.In
    2008,Whittingtonetal.carriedoutanexerciseonarange
    oflow-costwaterandsanitationsectorinterventions.Not
    allwaterandsanitationprojectswouldpassabenet
    costanalysis,especiallybecauseofthesubstantialup-
    frontcapitalinvestmentrequired,whichyieldsbenets
    overalongperiod.Asaresult,itisvitaltoevaluatethe
    costsaswellasthebenetsofalternativeinvestments,
    giventhatdiferentservicelevelsmayyieldcomparable
    benetsatverydiferentcosts.
    TheWhittingtonstudy(2008,p.3)concludedbystating:
    thekeytosuccessfulwaterandsanitationinvestments
    istodiscoverformsofserviceandpaymentmechanisms
    thatwillrendertheimprovementsworthwhileforthose
    whomustpayforthem.Inmanycases,theconventional
    networktechnologiesofwatersupplywillfailthistest
    andpoorhouseholdsneedalternative,non-networked
    technologies.
    CHAPTER23 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 538
    suferingmustalsobeaddedtothis(SIWI,WHOand
    NORAD,2005,p.13).
    Peoplewhodonothaveaccesstowaterfromasafe
    facilitythatislocatednearbypayahighopportunity
    costforcollectingtheminimumamounttheyneed
    tosatisfytheirbasicneeds.Althoughthiscostisnot
    measuredinmonetaryterms,itisefectivelypaidin
    termsoflosttime,lostschooldaysandlostworking
    days.Makingwateravailabletothepoorisameans
    offreeinguphumancapitalthatcanthenbeputto
    creatingwealth.Avaluationofthesebenetsjusties
    thecollectiveprovisionofwaterbecauseself-provision
    forhouseholdconsumptionisproportionallymoreex-
    pensiveforthepoorthanfortherichandrepresents
    aheavierburdenforwomenandchildren.Butitisim-
    portanttounderstandwhichinterventionswillbring
    aboutthegreatestbenets,basedonlevelsofservice
    andabilityofpoorhouseholdstopay.
    Haltingthepovertyspiralisgenerallypossibleifin-
    comeearningopportunitiesforthepoorareincreased.
    Improvingwatersupplyforproductiveuses,particu-
    larlyforfoodproduction,wouldfacilitatethis(Box23.5).
    Agricultureisstillthemainlivelihoodandtheengine
    ofgrowthforthree-quartersoftheworldspoor,who
    stillpredominantlyliveinruralareas.Strategiesto
    reducepovertyneedtofocusonimprovingfarmers
    incomesandbuildingresilienceinthissector.Valuing
    theimpactsofhigheryieldsandtheefectsofgrow-
    ingagreatervarietyofcropscanhelptobringabout
    betterpovertyreductionstrategiesrelatingtothe
    agriculturaluseofwater.Knowledgeofthevalueof
    higherincomesandtheimpactoflowerfoodprices
    FIGURE 23.1
    Accesstowaterandpotentialgainsintermsofgender,equityandeducationopportunitiesforchildren.
    Leftpanel,distributionofthosewhousuallycollectdrinkingwater;rightpanel,proportionofthepopulationusing
    drinkingwaterpipedonpremises,otherimproveddrinkingwatersourceoranunimprovedsource,bywealthquintile,
    sub-SaharanAfrica.
    Note: For families without a drinking water source on the premises it is usually women who go to the source to collect drinking water. Surveys
    from 45 developing countries show that this is the case in almost two-thirds of households, while in almost a quarter of households, it is men
    who usually collect the water. In 12% of households, however, children carry the main responsibility for collecting water, with girls under 15 years
    of age being twice as likely to carry this responsibility as boys under the age of 15 years. The real burden on children is likely to be higher
    because, in many households the water collection burden is shared, and children though not the main person responsible often make several
    roundtrips carrying water.
    Sources: WHO and UNICEF (2010).
    Womenshoulderthelargestburden
    incollectingdrinkingwater
    Therichestquintileismorethantwiceaslikelythan
    thepoorestquintiletouseimproveddrinkingwater
    Girls
    8%

    Boys
    4%
    Women
    64%
    Men
    24%
    Poorest
    Pipedonpremises
    Otherimprovedsources
    Unimprovedsources
    100
    80
    60
    40
    20
    0
    2nd 3rd 4th Richest
    0 1 3
    10
    35
    36
    45
    52
    61
    51
    14
    29
    45
    54
    64
    P
    r
    o
    p
    o
    r
    t
    i
    o
    n

    o
    f

    p
    o
    p
    u
    l
    a
    t
    i
    o
    n

    (
    %
    )
    WWDR4 539 VALUINGWATER
    helpstomeasurethoseefectsandtargetstrategies
    appropriately.
    23.1.3Valuingthebenetsofwatercaninformwater
    managementchoices
    Watervaluationmakesarealcontributionbyprovid-
    ingrelevantinformationonthevalueofthediferent
    typesofbenetsandcostsattachedtothediferent
    coursesofactionopentowatermanagers.Someof
    thesecoursesofactioncomplementotherwaterand
    sanitationinitiatives,whileothersaremutuallyexclu-
    sive(Table23.2).
    Eachalternativeconsideredonitsowncanbeas-
    sessedasanindividualproject.Neverthelessthisinfor-
    mation,whileuseful,isnotenoughtomakeadecision.
    Itrequirescomparingthevalueofitsopportunitycosts
    withthebestavailablealternative.Dams,forexam-
    ple,areusedtostorewaterfordrinking,irrigation,and
    hydroelectricitygenerationaswellasoodmanage-
    ment.Alltheseusesprovideconsiderablebenetsto
    society.However,damshavenegativeefectsonthe
    hydromorphologicalconditionsofriversbymodifying
    aquatichabitatsandinuencingothervaluableecosys-
    temservicesdownstream.Theimpactofthevalue,or
    thecost,oflosingtheseservicesmustbeconsidered
    whenassessingtheoveralleconomicbenetsofadam.
    Itisperhapsevenmoreimportanttoconsidertheal-
    ternativeoptionsforstoringwater,aswasdoneinthe
    caseofNewYorkwhenthecityneededtoplananew
    watersupplysystem(Box6).Alternativescaninclude
    usingnaturalinfrastructuresuchaswetlands,soilor
    groundwatertostorewater.Eachofthese,alongwith
    otheroptions,willprovideco-benetssuchassher-
    ies,waterpuricationoroodmitigation.Inthecase
    ofdesalinatedwater,itmaybemoreexpensivetopro-
    ducebutitsprovisionismoredependable.Thecostof
    provision,however,needstobecomparedwiththefull
    costofusingalternativesourcesofwater.Thiscompar-
    isonshouldincludeenvironmentalcoststhatwouldnot
    occuriftheoveruseofresourceswereprevented.
    Therelevantcomparisonofopportunitycostsandben-
    etsthatareeitherobtainedorforegonewitheach
    managementoptioninthedecision-makingprocess
    arevariedandcontextspecicforexample,when
    consideringhownewinfrastructureprojectsmay(or
    maynot)bemorebenecialthandemand-manage-
    mentoptionsforensuringwatersecurity.Demand
    managementmaybethemostcost-efectivewayof
    increasingavailablewater,butexistingarrangements
    maymakeitnanciallyunviableforwaterdistribution
    managers.Managerswillsellfewerservices,andso
    getareducedincome.Withpricecapsonwaterservic-
    esandnosupportfromgovernments,thismayafect
    thefundingthatisavailablefortheoperation,mainte-
    nanceandreplacementofinfrastructuresandthe
    viabilityoftheservicesthemselves.
    Whenassessingalternativecoursesofaction,itisalso
    importanttoconsiderthatthemarketpricecannot
    capturethefullrangeofbenetsthatwaterbringsto
    peopleandeconomies.Benetsandcoststhatafect
    peopleswelfarethrough,forexample,waterpollu-
    tionandexhaustion,areoftenabsentinthebalance
    ofcostsandbenetsthatindividualsandrmstake
    intoaccountwhenmakingdecisions.Forexample,
    whenjudgedonthebasisoftheirowninterest,using
    groundwatermaybenanciallycostefectiveforfarm-
    ers.Butitcanexhaustwatersuppliesandtransferthe
    wasthelnternationalYearofSanitation1his
    helpedtoputtheneglectedsanitationcrisisontothe
    agendasofgovernmentleaders,thedonorcommunity,
    andcivilsociety.
    1heSanitationandWaterforAllinitiativeaimstoen-
    couragedonorgovernmentsandrecipientcountries
    nanceministerstoincreasetheefortsbeingmadein
    theareaofsanitation.
    SustainableSanitation1heFiveYearDrivetoisan
    advocacyvehiclecommittedtokeepingsanitationhigh
    onthepoliticalagenda,promotingnationalcoordina-
    tionandinspiringactorsinthesanitationandhealth
    elds.
    Alltheseefortsarebuilt,toalargeextent,ontheresults
    ofvaluationanalysisthatshowthelinksthatsanitation
    andhealthhavewitheconomicdevelopmentandenviron-
    mentalsustainability.Thecrucialinformationcamefrom
    theworkoftheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)(which
    highlightstheimportanteconomicbenetsofappropri-
    atesanitationactions),andtheUN-WaterGLAASanalysis
    ofexistingdrinkingwaterandsanitationnancingandits
    recommendations.Recommendation1says:Developing
    countriesandexternalsupportagenciestodemonstrate
    greaterpoliticalcommitmenttosanitationanddrinking
    water,giventheircentralroleinhumanandeconomic
    development.
    BOX 23.5
    Valuingthebenetsofsanitationcanfoster
    governmentactionandredoublethefocuson
    sanitation
    CHAPTER23 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 540
    TABLE 23.2
    Typesofbenetattachedtodiferentwaterandsanitationinterventions
    Investments options Types of benet
    Providing access to safe water and sanitation
    Providing access to safe water near the home
    Buildingwateraccesspoint
    Buildingandoperatingwatertreatmentplants
    Providingpointofusewatertreatmentmethods
    Providing access to sanitation and hygiene
    Buildingsanitationfacilities
    Promotingtheadoptionofhygienicpractices
    Wastewater collection and transport
    Collectingwastewaterviaseweragenetworks
    Collectingandtransportingpitsludgeoutsidethehome
    Health benets
    Peducedincidenceofwaterbornediseasesegdiarrhoea
    and of water-washed diseases
    Non-health benets/economic benets
    1imesavedforproductiveactivities
    Peducedcopingcosts
    Economic benets
    lncreaseinproductivity
    Useofurineandfaecesaseconomicinput
    lmpactontourismfromimprovedamenity
    Other benets
    lncreasesinoverallcleanlinessdignityandpride
    lncreasedschoolattendanceespeciallyforgirls
    downstream, in wastewater treatment for safe disposal
    Buildingandoperatingwastewatertreatmentplants
    Lnsuringsafedisposalofresidualsludge
    Pelyingonnaturaltreatmentprocesses
    Health benets
    Peducedincidenceofwaterbornediseasesegdiarrhoea
    and of water-washed diseases
    Beneftsfromimprovedrecreationalwaters
    Environmental benets
    Peducedeutrophication
    Economic benets
    Peducedpretreatmentcostsdownstreamfordrinkingwater
    and industrial purposes)
    Protectionofcommercialfshstocksandaquaculture
    Lnhancedtourismactivities
    lncreasedwatersupplyforirrigation
    Savingoffertilizersthroughuseofsludge
    Other benets
    Pecreationalbenefts
    lncreasedpropertyvalues
    upstream, in managing the supply/demand balance sustainably
    Protecting water resources
    Lstablishingcatchmentprotectionzones
    Lstablishingvoluntaryagreements
    Lstablishingregulations
    Environmental benets
    Peducingpressureonavailableresourcesespecially
    groundwater) and improving river ows
    Lconomicimpactonuseofwaterforeconomicactivities
    (agriculture, hydropower)
    Economic benets
    Peductioninwaterpretreatmentcosts
    Uninterruptedsupplyforproductionprocesses
    Downsizingoffacilities
    Peducedneedfordesalinationenergysavings
    Other benets
    lncreasedqualityoflifeduetoreliablewatersupply
    lndirectbeneftseglinkedtorecreationalactivitiesondams
    Increasing and ensuring supply
    Buildingstoragecapacity
    Buildingabstractioncapacity
    Developingalternativesourcessuchasaquiferrecharge
    desalination, re-use of treated efuent
    Adoptingdroughtmanagementplans
    Managing demand
    Peducingleakageonthenetworkandwithincustomers
    premises)
    lntroducingincentivepricing
    lnstallingwatersavingdevices
    Paisingawarenessandeducatingthepublic
    Source: OECD (2011).
    WWDR4 541 VALUINGWATER
    forfoodproductionandthegenerationofhydroelec-
    tricityareallecosystemservicesasareotheroften
    neglectedservicessuchasnutrientrecycling,climate
    regulation,culturalandrecreationalbenetsand
    oodmitigation.Mostofthedecisionsthathaveto
    betakenareactuallyaboutmaximizingoneparticu-
    larservice,oftenattheexpenseofothers.Inthisway,
    waterdecisionsnearlyalwaysinvolvetrade-ofs.The
    objectiveshouldbetooptimizethedeliveryofmul-
    tipleinter-relatedecosystemservices.Thepurposeof
    efectivevaluationistwo-fold.First,toidentifyand
    recognizewhatservicesareinvolvedinthetrade-of
    (eveniftheycantbevalued).Andsecond,toquan-
    tifyvaluesasmuchaspossibleinordertoassistin
    calculatingtrade-ofs.
    Someofthenon-marketservicesprovidedbyecosys-
    temscanberelativelyeasilyquantiedandgener-
    atesubstantialvalues.Examplesincludethevalueof
    ecosystemssuchaswetlandsinoodmitigation,and
    forestsinsustainingdrinkingwaterquality.Itisthe
    growingrecognitionofthesevaluesthatismotivat-
    inggreaterinterestintherestorationoftheseser-
    vices.Valuationhasoftenshownthatconservingeco-
    systems,orreversingtheirdegradation,isnotonly
    asustainableecologicalalternative(veryoftenwith
    multiplebenets),butisalsoeconomicallybenecial.
    Valuationessentiallyprovidesevidencethateconomic
    benetsarerelinquishedwhenpolicy,management
    andinvestmentcauseavoidableenvironmentaldeg-
    radation.Forproducersofgoodsandserviceswho
    usewaterdirectly,waterpricesandcostsarethebasic
    criteriaforwater-usedecisions.Butpricesoftendonot
    reecttherealproductioncostsoreconomicvalueof
    water.Inparticular,pricesoftendonotreectthede-
    clineinthenaturalcapitalstocksthatsupportthepro-
    ductionofallecosystemservices.Therefore,decisions
    takenoninfrastructureinvestmentsaredisconnected
    fromwhatisefcientandsustainablefortheeconomy
    andtheenvironmentasawhole.
    Betterawarenessoftheissuesandmoresharingofin-
    formationontheeconomicbenetsofmaintainingor
    restoringnaturalcapitalisalsoimportantwhentrying
    toreachcollectiveagreementsandwhentryingtode-
    signnancialincentivesthatalignindividualbehaviour
    withthecommongood.Valuationandbettercommu-
    nicationofthecostsandbenetsarecrucialfortaking
    betterindividualandcollectivedecisionsontheuseof
    water.
    coststootherwaterusers.Whereshort-termprots
    arehigherthanrealeconomiccosts,boomandbust
    outcomesresult,andsustainabledevelopmentmaybe
    undermined.Therearemanyexamplesofmuchefort
    havingbeenputintobuildingwaterinfrastructures
    thateventuallybecameuselesswhenwaterresources
    wereexhausted.
    Theexternalcostsincurredbytheoveruseanddegra-
    dationofwaterresourcesoftenremainignoreduntil
    acrisisisreachedbywhichtimethevalueofthe
    infrastructureitselfisusuallyreducedandiscom-
    promisingthesustainabilityofservices.Ifinstitutions
    governingwaterfailtoproperlymanageitsuse,there
    isadangerofmarketincentivesfavouringshort-term
    nancialbenetsattheexpenseoftheintegrityof
    theresourcebaseanditslong-termeconomicvalue.
    Worldwideevidenceoftheoverexploitationofsurface
    waterandgroundwaterunveilsthisfact.Itisexpected
    thatby2025,1.8billionpeoplewillliveincountriesor
    regionswithabsolutewaterscarcityandtwo-thirdsof
    theworldpopulationcouldbeafectedbywaterstress
    conditions(UNESCOWWAP,2006).Inmanyplaces,
    societyhasbeenwillingandabletogofurtherwithin-
    vestmentopportunitieswheretheshort-termnancial
    returnsforwaterusersaretransparentlyinferiortothe
    economicbenetsthatwillbeavailableasaresultof
    long-termsustainability.
    23.1.4Valuingnon-marketbenetscanprevent
    criticalecosystemservicesfrombeingneglected
    Ecosystemservicesarethebenets,orservices,that
    ecosystemsbringtopeople.Drinkingwater,water
    Presentedwithachoicebetweenprovisionofcleanwa-
    terthroughbuildingaltrationplantormanagingthe
    watershed,NewYorkCityeasilyconcludedthatthelatter
    wasmorecostefective.Itwasestimatedthataltra-
    tionplantwouldcostbetween$6billionand$8billion
    tobuild.Bycontrast,watershedprotectioneforts,which
    wouldincludenotonlytheacquisitionofcriticalwater-
    shedlandsbutalsoavarietyofotherprogramsdesigned
    toreducecontaminationsourcesinthewatershed,would
    costonlyabout$1.5billion.
    Source: Daily and Ellison (2003).
    BOX 23.6
    Balancingbenetsandcostswhenassessingwater
    managementoptions:Newltrationinfrastructures
    versuswatercatchmentprotectioninNewYork
    CHAPTER23 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 542
    Therearenowanumberofexamplesthatdemonstrate
    thebenetsofenvironmentalimprovementsandinu-
    encewaterplanninganddecision-making(Box23.7).
    23.1.5Valuingtoassesstrade-ofsinwaterallocation
    decisions
    Waterecosystemshaveonlyalimitedabilitytocon-
    tinuetoprovidewaterservicestotheeconomy.So
    itisimportantforeconomicgrowththatwateris
    usedwellandallocatedtoitsvarioususesefciently.
    Competitioncanbemanagedanddegradationpre-
    ventedbyhavingsufcientaccurateinformationabout
    theeconomic,socialandenvironmentalvalueofwater
    initsvarioususes.Thiswillalsohelpwithre-allocat-
    ingwatersothatitprovidesgreaterbenetstothe
    economyandtosociety.Therewillbetrade-ofstobe
    consideredtooanddecisionstobetakenaboutwhich
    benetstoforgowhenusingwaterforonepurpose
    insteadofanother.
    Inaworldofscarcity,thevaluationofwaterpro-
    ductivityinagriculturealsoneedstobeconsidered.
    Informationneededbygovernmentssothattheycan
    assesswhetherwaterisbeingusedforlow-yieldcrops
    inwater-scarceareasandifso,determinealternative
    cropsorusesthatwouldmakethegreatestcontribu-
    tiontotheeconomy.Suchavaluationprovidesadata-
    basethatfarmerscanusetomakeinformeddecisions
    aboutinvestinginimprovedinfrastructureandcrop
    varieties,andthatgovernmentscanusetotargettheir
    investmentandtoformulateincentivesforimproving
    efciencyinwateruse.
    Legalframeworksandinstitutionsneedtobesetup
    andbetterwaysofallocatingwaterneedtobefound.
    Theseneedtobedoneusingprinciplessuchaseq-
    uityandefciencythatmaybepoliticallydifcultto
    implementinpractice.Thereisalsoaneedtoimprove
    themechanismsthatdeliverdesiredobjectivestoa
    rangeofdiversestakeholderinterests(Box23.8).If
    thereareinstitutionalarrangementsthatallowwater
    tobeallocatedtowhereitsuseismostvaluable,this
    mayhelpindrawingupmutuallybenecialallocation
    agreements.Establishinglegalframeworksfordecen-
    tralizedwatermanagementisthetypeofinstitutional
    arrangementthathasbecomeimportantinmanywa-
    terscarcecountries.Thesecanbeusedtoimplement
    economicinstrumentssuchaswatertrading,licences
    andrightstousewater.Watertradinghasdeveloped
    incountriessuchasAustralia,theUnitedStates,India,
    ChileandSpain(Box23.9).
    IntheEuropeanWaterFrameworkDirective,valuingthe
    costsandbenetsprovidestheinformationrequiredto
    assesswhethertheopportunitycostofimprovingwater
    bodiesisdisproportionatecomparedwiththepotential
    socio-economicandenvironmentalbenets,andtothen
    decideonthepreciseobjectivesandtimingofmeasures
    toimprovewaterstatusintheriverbasinmanagement
    plans.Itiswidelyacceptedthatinmanywaterbodies
    therearemorewelfaregainstobeobtainedbyimprov-
    ingtheecologicalstatusthanbyallowingtheirfurther
    degradation.
    BOX 23.7
    Valuingnon-marketecosystemservicesin
    theEuropeanUnioncaninformdecisionson
    environmentalobjectivesinplanningprocesses
    BOX 23.8
    Stakeholder-orientedvaluationcansupport
    allocationdecisionswatermanagementinTanzania
    IntheUnitedRepublicofTanzania,someareasfacese-
    verewaterscarcity.Demandforwaterhasbeengrowing
    andthereisconictbetweentheenergyandirrigation
    sectors,betweenthesesectorsandconservationists,and
    betweenupstreamanddownstreamusers.In2005,the
    governmentestablishedalegalframeworkthatdecen-
    tralizeswatermanagementandincreasesstakeholderin-
    volvementbyincludinglocalcatchmentareacommittees,
    riverbasinassociationsandwater-usersassociations.A
    participatoryapproachtowatervaluationthroughsur-
    veys,datacollectionsandworkshopstoanalysedataand
    resultswasimplementedtoenablelocalstakeholdersto
    engageinimplementingIWRM.
    Indicatorsforeconomic,socialandenvironmentalvalues
    wereconsideredincludingcropwaterproductivityindif-
    ferentzones,valueacrossallwatersectors,incomefrom
    water-relatedproductionactivities,foodsecurity(in-
    cludingthenutritionalvalueofcrops),accesstodrinking
    water,conictoverwater,environmentalbaseowsand
    environmentalchanges.Thevaluingprocesssupported
    decisionstochangetocropsthatuselesswater,toim-
    provecapacitiestoincreasewaterproductivity,toreview
    existingwaterrightsandthetrainingofwater-usersas-
    sociations,andtocoordinatefarmersownmarketingof
    agriculturalproductsinordertoincreaseincomeandim-
    provestability.
    Source: Hermans et al. (2006).
    WWDR4 543 VALUINGWATER
    23.1.6Valuingwatercanhelptocontainwater
    conictsandpromotecooperationinpreserving
    waterresources
    Inthecontextofaccesstocriticaltransboundarywater
    resources,valuingcaninformgovernmentsaboutthe
    advantagesofcooperationinsteadofcompetitionor
    conict.Workingtowardsacommonvisionoftheval-
    ueofsharedwaterresourcesisapowerfulinstrument
    forndingawayinwhichagreementsininternational
    disputesoverwatercanbeself-enforced.
    Countriesaremorelikelytocooperatewhenthenet
    benetsofcooperatingareperceivedtobegreater
    thanthoseofnon-cooperationandthisisevenmore
    likelywhenthesharingarrangementisperceivedtobe
    fair.Theadvantagesofcooperationandcollectiveac-
    tionareeasiertoseewhenthebenetscanbemade
    visibletoeachoneoftheparties(Box23.10).
    Valuingprovideskeyinformationthatallowsstake-
    holderstomovetowardscooperativeagreements.It
    alsoenablesthecreationofbenetsforallthosein-
    volvedinprovidingsolutions.Forexample,valuingthe
    benetsthatwatercatchmentprotectioncanhavein
    securingadequatesuppliesofqualitywatercanopen
    upsolutionsthatwerenotenvisaged.Thiscaninclude
    costsavedbyreducingtheneedfordownstreamtreat-
    ment.Protectingwatershedsalsoleadstoabroad
    rangeofpositiveenvironmentalefectsonthequal-
    ityofwaterinwaterbodies,ingroundwaterresources,
    insoilresourcesandthequalityofwateravailablefor
    vegetationandfornativeoraandfauna.
    23.1.7Valuingwatertodesignappropriatesubsidies
    andtargetednancing
    Despitethesubstantialeconomicreturnsinvolvedin
    providingwaterservicestohouseholds,toindustry
    andforfoodproduction,thebasicwaterneedsofpeo-
    pleinmanypoorcountriesarestillnotbeingmet.This
    isaresultofacombinationoftheinabilityofindividu-
    alsandbusinesstopayandtoofewnancialincen-
    tivestoinvestintherequiredfacilities.Thesearekey
    reasonswhydecisionsshouldbetakentogivewater
    operatorsandcommunityserviceprovidersbetterac-
    cesstoloansandwell-targetedsubsidies(Box23.11).
    BOX 23.10
    Valuingbenetssupportscooperationin
    internationalriverbasins
    BOX 23.9
    Valuationofscarcityinwatermarkets
    Valuesassociatedwithwatercanbeobserveddirectly
    throughmarketactivityinaridregionswherethereis
    trading,wherewaterisfullyallocatedandwhereirrigation
    isunderpressurefrommunicipal,industrialand,insome
    cases,environmental,demands.Therearesomebasins
    whererightstousewateraredened,enforcedandtrad-
    able.MarketpricesinexamplesintheUnitedStates(in
    CaliforniasCentralValley,ColoradosSouthPlattebasin
    andNevadasTruckeeRiverbasin),andinAustralia(inthe
    Murray-Darlingbasin)conrmthatthevalueofwateruse
    variesconsiderablyandthatitisdrivenbyvariationsin
    marketconditionsandsupply.
    Datasuggestthatinmanyriverbasins,markettrans-
    fersarehappeninginlinewiththeagriculturalvalueof
    water,butataratethatsbelowthevalueofwatertothe
    domesticconsumerorindustrialuser.Marketsthatdont
    havesignicanturbandemandseepricesthatreectthe
    agriculturalproductionvalueofwater,whichiscalculated
    asthediferenceinthepriceofirrigatedversusdryland.
    Wherethereissignicanturbandemand,pricesaredriven
    bythisandshapedbythecostoftransferringthewaterto
    urbanusethroughconveyancesandsoforth.
    Marketvaluesforpermanentwaterrightsacquisitionsare
    roughlyoneorderofmagnitudegreaterthantheprices
    fortemporaryallocations.Fromthisitcanbededuced
    thatcapitalizationrateswillberoughlyontheorderof
    magnitudeexpectedgivencurrentcostsofcredit.The
    marketvalueofwaterisintrinsicallyregional,orevenlo-
    cal,becausephysicallimitationsconstrainthescopeof
    cost-efectivetrade.Asaresult,priceobservationsfrom
    onecontextmayhavelittlerelevanceinanother.
    Source: Aylward et al. (2010).
    Benet-sharingagreementsexistforvariousinternation-
    alrivers,includingtheDanube,theNiger,theOkavango
    andmanyothers.TheOrganizationfortheDevelopment
    oftheSenegalRiverwascreatedin1972.Disagreement
    aboutthecompetingrightsofMali,Senegal,Guinea
    andMauritaniawasnoimpedimenttothefourcountries
    reachinganagreementtosharethebenetsofvari-
    ousriverprojects.Acommonknowledgeofthebenets
    wasessentialforbuildinganinstitutionalframework:the
    developmentofmulti-purposewaterresourcesinfra-
    structureisexpectedtoyieldexpandedopportunitiesfor
    growth,reducedimmigrationandpoverty,andimproved
    healthandlivelihoodsofthepopulationwhilealsopre-
    servingtheenvironment(WorldBank,2009,p.12).
    CHAPTER23 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 544
    Valuationcanhelptoidentifywhenitisjustiableto
    chargewaterfeesthatarelowerthanfullcostofre-
    coveringtheinvestment.
    Valuationcanalsogivesocietycrucialinformationthat
    canbeusedtondpracticalsolutionsthateasethe
    transitionfromthesubsidizedtarifsthataredesigned
    tostoppovertyspirals,toasetofself-nancedservic-
    esthatmakewaterservicesnanciallysustainable.
    Inmanypoorcountries,onlyasmallportionofthe
    benetsofwaterservicescanbefundedentirelyby
    thepublicorbyprivateorganizations.Onpurelynan-
    cialgrounds,providingwaterisnotanattractiveop-
    portunityforprivatebusinesses.Thiscanleadtopoor
    maintenanceandthedeteriorationofprivatelyrunwa-
    terinfrastructureandbasicservices.Theconsequence
    ofthisisaviciousdownwardspiralofunderinvestment
    leadingtopoorservicethatunderminestheabilityto
    captureadequaterevenuetooperate,maintainandin-
    vestinsystems(Figure23.2).
    Changesintheprovisionandmanagementofwater
    frombeingmostlyself-collectedtobeingacommu-
    nallyprovidedsetofwaterprovisionservicesmight
    meanthatpeoplehavemoretimeandbetterhealth.
    Buttheystillwonthaveenoughmoneytopaythe-
    nancialcostoftheservicestheyget.Intherststage
    ofthis,evenifthevaluationexerciseshowsthatthe
    expectedeconomicbenetsareundeniable(particu-
    larlyforthepoor)peoplecannotafordtopaythefull
    nancialcostoftheservice.Sointheabsenceofa
    collectiveaction,theywillcontinuewithoutaccessto
    basicsanitationandsafewater.
    Butimprovementsinwateraccessmightnotbesus-
    tainableinthemediumtermifsocietyandwaterinsti-
    tutionsarenotabletomanagethetransitionfromthe
    initialstage(wherethepriorityistoimproveaccess
    tobasicservices)toanadvancedstagewherethe-
    nancialsustainabilityofprovidingwaterneedstobe
    ensured.Newwayshavetobefoundtotransformthe
    newopportunityofimprovedaccesstowaterintoef-
    fectiveeducation,cropdiversicationorearningpros-
    pectsforthepoor.
    Valuationisusefulfordeterminingwhateconomicin-
    centivesarerequiredtoalignindividualbehaviourwith
    collectivetargetsandobjectives.Forexample,valuing
    less-visiblenon-marketecosystemservicescanprovide
    clearerindicationsofthevalueofpreservingorrestor-
    ingecosystems.Suchvaluationcanbesimplerthanis
    oftenthought.Forexample,thelossofanecosystems
    abilitytodelivercleanwatercanbeestimatedfromthe
    pointofviewofthecostofrectifyingtheproblemarti-
    cially(forexample,thecostofarticialwatertreatment)
    orfromthepointofviewoftheeconomiccostofliving
    theconsequencesofpoorqualitywater(forexample,a
    fall-ofinproductivity,higherhealth-careexpenses,etc.).
    Inmanyinstances,theabsenceofanecosystemservice
    isalreadygeneratinganeconomic,andoftendirect,-
    nancialcost.Identifyingwherebenetsariseandcosts
    areincurredhelpstoascertainhowcostscanbetrans-
    formedintoincentivesthatwillbringmoreefcienteco-
    nomicoutcomes(Box23.12).
    23.1.8Valuingcansupportdecisionsonwhat
    measurestotaketoimprovewatersecurity
    Thereareincreasingdemandsonwaterandless-
    predictablerainfallpatternsandwaterows(includ-
    ingahigherfrequencyandintensityofextremeevents
    suchasoodsanddroughts).Sobetterwatersecu-
    rityandmore-resilientmanagementoptionshavean
    BOX 23.11
    Valuationcansupportthedesignofsubsidiesand
    targetednancing
    Thereareeconomicbenetstobehadfromimprovingac-
    cesstobasicsanitationandsafedrinkingwater.Theben-
    etsofirrigationhavebeenestimatedbytheWorldBank
    toyieldaverageratesofreturnof20%.However,nancial
    problemsandmismanagementcanleadtothedownfallof
    manyirrigationsystems.Thepricesofagriculturalprod-
    uctshavebeenfallingandsomeinvestmentsarenowless
    nanciallyviable.Theremaybeaneedtostabilizethein-
    comeofpoorfarmerswhoaresubsistingbelowacertain
    incomelevelandwhoareexposedtoregulardroughtand
    cropinsecurity.
    Valuingthesocialandenvironmentalconsequencesof
    abandoningnanciallyunsustainablesystemshasfound
    thatthereshouldbesupportfortheimplementationof
    nancialpackagesandothercapacitybuildingpro-
    grammes(suchasrecordkeepingandthecollectionof
    fees)byinternationaldonors.Donorresourcesthatare
    alreadyinplacearebeingredesignedtohelpattractother
    resourcesandinvestment.Theyarealsofocusinginpro-
    vidingfundingtobridgethegapbetweeninvestmentin
    infrastructureandincomegeneration.Thissupportsthe
    developmentoflocalcapitalandnancialmarketsinclud-
    ingmicrocreditinitiativesandlocalbanksandisconsist-
    entwiththeaimsofoutput-basedaid.
    Source: Grimm and Richter (2006).
    WWDR4 545 VALUINGWATER
    increasinglyhighervalue.Valuationapproachesshould
    factorinandprovideinformationonthebenets,or
    risks,ofincreasedordecreasedwatersecurity.When
    doneefectively,theyshouldshedlightonthecosts
    andbenetsofmoreresilientmanagementoptions.
    Theinformationthatavaluationapproachprovides
    aboutthechangingvaluesofwaterinitsvarioususes
    canbevitalforimplementingadaptiveplanningand
    management.Itcanalsohelptopreventinappro-
    priateuncontrolledindividualresponsestoriskand
    uncertainty.
    Managementthatmakeswatersuppliessecurehas
    acriticalroleinmakingthebenetsofdevelopment
    morepredictable.Poorandwater-scarcesocietiesthat
    arenowtryingtoestablishsystemstosupplywater
    andbasicsanitationservicesarefacedwiththepo-
    tentialadverseefectsofclimatechange(WorldBank,
    2010;Danilenkoetal.,2010;Box23.13).
    Collectivedecisionsonmeasuresthatwillincrease
    watersecurityandfacilitatethenancialresourcesto
    dosocannotbeproperlyinformedwithoutaprop-
    ervaluationofthebenetsandcosts.Valuationcan
    improvetheaccuracyoftheinformationthatprivate
    andpublicagentsusetotakebetter-informeddeci-
    sionswithfullknowledgeofthecostsinvolved.Water
    storageschemesandinfrastructure,waterconserva-
    tionprogrammesandimprovementsinefciencyare
    allexamplesofthekindsofmeasurethatarealready
    consideredbenecial,butwhichareevenmorevalu-
    ableinaclimatestresscontext.Othermeasures,which
    needonlybeconsideredinthefaceofuncertainty,
    mayincludethediversicationofwatersources(such
    asdesalinationandnon-conventionalsources),theup-
    gradingofstormwatersystems,thereversalofcoastal
    developmentstoreduceexposure,therecoveryof
    oodplainsforoodprotectionandtherecoveryof
    aquifersforbuferingsecuritystocks.
    Valuingcanprovidevaluableinformationonthecapital
    andmaintenancecostofthesevariousoptions.Andit
    canalsogiveaninsightintothebenetsandopportu-
    nitycostsinvolvedinwatersecurityandotherecosys-
    temsservices.
    Economicincentivescanhavearoleinenhancing
    adaptivecapacities.Whenwatersupplyandquality
    FIGURE 23.2
    Theviciousspiraloflowfunding
    Source: Adapted from Moss et al. (2003, g. 4, p. 13) by J. M. Moss.
    Potentialinvestments
    drivenawayby
    perceptionof
    highriskandlowreturns
    Goodqualityhuman
    resourcesdrivenaway
    bylackofopportunity
    andlowachievement
    Increased
    Debt
    Inadequate
    Investment
    Fundslosttosystem:
    Nonrecovery
    Corruption
    Rents
    Inadequate
    Maintenance
    Oprerational
    Inefciency
    Infrastructure
    degradation
    Lossofpositive
    externalitiesandincrease
    ofnegative
    externalities
    Low
    Perceptionof
    Value
    Lowfreerevenues
    andlowwillingness
    toincreasetax-based
    waterfunding
    Lowservice
    quality
    CHAPTER23 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 546
    varyunpredictablyovertimeandfromlocationtolo-
    cation,stakeholdersandwaterusersmightbemore
    efcientthanpublicauthoritiesinndingthemost
    cost-efectiveandappropriateanswers.Forexample,
    valuationcansupportwatertradingandthedesign
    andimplementationofaweather-basedinsurance
    schemethatmayprovideincentivestoinvestinwater
    savingandmakewaterallocationandreallocationde-
    cisionsacceptable,andadaptable.Suchaschememay
    becontingentonchangesinwatersupplyandthesta-
    bilizationofincomeandeconomicoutput.

    Theextenttowhichsomeofthesemeasuresneed
    tobetakendependsonhowindividualsandgovern-
    mentsvaluetheincreasedsecuritytheyprovide.Italso
    dependsonhowtheyvaluethebenetsthathaveto
    beforegoneineachcase.Ahigheraversiontoun-
    certaineventsmeansahigherriskpremiumthatis
    tosay,themorepeoplefearexposuretoextreme
    events,andthemorelikelytheseeventsareseento
    be,themorepeoplewillbewillingtopayforinsur-
    ance.Valuingtheprivatewillingnesstopaytoin-
    creasesecurityisanimportantstepinjudgingthe
    extenttowhichavailablemeasureswouldbenan-
    ciallyviable.
    Valuingprovidesreliableevidenceofthepotential
    damageandreductioninwelfarethatmayresultfrom
    leavingriskresponsestospontaneousindividualan-
    swersinsteadofimplementingcollectiveandmore
    comprehensiveanticipatoryresponsestowatervari-
    abilityandclimatechange.Leavingriskresponseto
    individualefortstodefendandmaintainproduction
    BOX 23.12
    Valuingcompensationpaymentsforenvironmental
    servicesinChina
    BOX 23.13
    Valuingtheeconomiclosesofdroughtsandthe
    efectsofclimatechangecanmakethecasefor
    politicalaction
    Chinasecologicalcompensationmechanismsarea
    modernvariantoftraditionalgovernmentpaymentsto
    providersofecologicalservices.Thegovernmenttrans-
    fersmoneyandcompensateslandowners(orlandusers)
    forspecicactionsthatproduceenvironmentalbenets.
    Therearevariousapplicationsoftheeco-compensation
    approach.Theseincludecompensationpaidtoresidents
    livingnearwatersourcesorreservoirstomigrateto
    otherareas,subsidiespaidtosewagetreatmentplants,
    compensationtosupporttheforestrysectorinupstream
    areasandpaymentstofarmerstocompensateforlost
    productioncausedbyreducingtheuseoffertilizersand
    pesticides.
    Atthecentralgovernmentlevel,Chinahasdeveloped
    andimplementedsomeofthelargestpublicpayment
    schemesforecosystemconservationintheworld.These
    schemesincludetheSlopingLandConversionProgram
    (SLCP),theNaturalForestProtectionProject(NFPP),and
    theForestEcosystemCompensationFund(FECF).The
    SLCP(alsocalledtheGrainforGreenprogram)wasiniti-
    atedin1999torestorenaturalecosystemsandmitigate
    theadverseimpactsoffarminginpreviouslyforested
    areasormarginalland.Farmingtheselandsresultedin
    ooding,thesedimentationofreservoirs,andduststorms.
    Farmerswhoenrolintheschemereceivepaymentsfor
    seeds,seedlings,andmanagementexpenses.Itisoneof
    thelargestpublictransferschemesintheworld,reaching
    some30millionfarmsspreadover7millionhectares(ha)
    ofcropland.ItdisbursesaroundUS$8billionperyear.
    TheFECFprogrammetargetsthemanagementofpri-
    vatelyownedforests.Itcompensateslandownersfor
    theecosystemservicesprovidedbytheirlandandfor
    thelandandresourceuserestrictionsthataresubjectto
    whentheyparticipateintheprogramme.Theschemecur-
    rentlycovers26millionhain11provinces,andcoststhe
    governmentaboutRMB2billion($253million)annually
    ofwhichabout70%goestofarmers,whoarepaidan
    averageofUS$9perhectare.Localgovernmentsareen-
    couragedtoprovideadditionalfunds.InDecember2004,
    theFECFwasextendedtotheentirecountry.Itcoverskey
    state-ownednon-commercialforests,aswellaswood-
    landsinareasthatareatriskfromdeserticationandsoil
    erosion.
    InKenya,droughtsoccuronaverageonceeverysev-
    enyears.Theireconomiccost(aswasthecaseonthe
    19992000drought)wasequivalenttoone-sixthofthe
    grossdomesticproduct(GDP).Thisguresuggestthatif
    thecountrycoulddecoupleitseconomyfromrainfallvari-
    ability,itsannualeconomicgrowthcouldincreaseby3.5%
    (SIWIandWHO,2005).
    NicholasSternsreview,The Economics of Climate Change
    foundthatclimatechangehadasignicantimpacton
    economicoutput.Inabaselineclimate-changescenario,
    thereviewestimatedthatclimatechangewouldbere-
    sponsiblefora2.5%lossinGDPinIndiaandSouthEast
    Asiaby2100,andwouldcausea1.9%lossinGDPinAfrica
    andtheMiddleEastoverthesameperiod.
    Source: Jian (2009). Source: Stern (2007).
    WWDR4 547 VALUINGWATER
    activitiescouldleadtotheextensionorintensication
    ofexistingvulnerabilities.Spontaneousanswersfrom
    people,businesses,andfarmersinruralcommunities
    dependontheirperceptionofvalueandrisk,theop-
    tionsavailabletothemandtheirindividualeconomic
    incentives.Thelackofaplannedandcoordinatedre-
    sponsetoincreasedscarcityandriskwillfavourindi-
    vidualanswersthatdonotnecessarilyproducethe
    bestormostsustainableoutcomes.Forexample,they
    mayaddmorepressuretocultivatemarginallandor
    adoptunsustainablecultivationpracticesbecauseer-
    raticrainfallhasmadeyieldsdrop.Allofthesepossi-
    bilitiescouldreinforcewaterscarcityandlanddegra-
    dationandendangerthebiodiversityofbothwildand
    domesticspecies.Theymightalsoincreasingvulner-
    abilityandjeopardizetheabilitytorespondtoclimate
    andotherriskslateron.
    Showingthediferencebetweenthenancialandeco-
    nomiccostsandbenetsofalternativeactionsisauseful
    wayofunderliningtheimportanceofaplanned,antici-
    patoryandcoordinatedresponsetowatermanagement
    challenges.Collectiveactionsinsteadofspontaneous
    individualresponsesarerequiredaswellasimplementing
    riskmanagementoptionsinsteadofcopingwiththecon-
    sequencesofextremeeventsandadaptingtonegative
    trends.Valuationmayplayacriticalroleinshowingthe
    advantagesofcooperation,leadingtobetterresponses
    andhighersecurity,insteadofindividualactions.
    23.2ChallengesforValuingwater
    Manyvaluationmethodsalreadyexistand,havebeen
    testedinavarietyofsituationsandcontextsthatare
    relevantforpolicydecisions.Watervaluationmethods
    varyaccordingtohowtheyobtaininformationabout
    theimportancethatpeoplegivetowaterbenets.
    Inspiteofitsrelevancetopolicyandinspiteofthe
    growingnumberofsuccessfulexamples,valuationis
    stillcontroversial.Amongtheissuesmostcommonly
    discussedare:theusefulnessofthevariousvaluation
    approachesforanyspecicdecisionproblem;thero-
    bustnessoftheresultsprovidedbyvaluationexercises;
    thecomparabilityofcostsandbenetswhenbothare
    obtainedfromdiferentsources,atdiferentgeograph-
    icalscalesandwithdiferentvaluationmethods(UNSD,
    2007andChapter8).
    Watervaluationisstillchallengingbecausedatais
    oftennotavailableandisexpensivetocollectand
    becauseassumptionssometimesneedtobemadeto
    overcometheabsenceofrelevantinformation.Water
    TABLE 23.3
    Valuationtechniquesforwater
    Valuation techniques Comments
    1.Waterasanintermediateinputtoproduction:
    agriculture,manufacturing
    Residualvalue
    Changeinnetincome
    Productionfunctionapproach
    Mathematicalprogrammingmodels
    Salesandrentalsofwaterrights
    Hedonicpricing
    Demandfunctionsfromwaterutilitysales
    Techniquesprovideaverageormarginalvalueofwaterbased
    onobservedmarketbehaviour.
    2.Waterasanalconsumergood
    Salesandrentalsofwaterrights
    Demandfunctionsfromwaterutilitysales
    Mathematicalprogrammingmodels
    Alternativecost
    Contingentvaluation
    Alltechniques execpt contingent valuation provide average or
    marginalvalueofwaterbasedonobservedmarketbehaviour
    Contingent valuation measures total economic value based on
    hypotheticalpurchases
    3.Environmentalservicesofwater:
    wasteassimilation
    Costsofactionstopreventdamage
    Benetsfromdamageaverted
    Both techniques provide information on average or
    marginal values
    Source: UNSD (2007, table 8.1, p. 120).
    CHAPTER23 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 548
    benetsareusuallysite-specicandcannotbeeas-
    ilytransferredfromcontexttocontext.Methodsand
    assumptionsarenotstandardizedanduncertainty
    inthenumericalresultsobtainedmaybequitehigh.
    Valuationmethodshavebeendevelopedinresponse
    totheselimitationsandtheresultsarevalidatedbyex-
    tensivescienticresearch.However,theassumptions,
    thenumericalresults,andthelimitationsonhowvalu-
    ationresultscanbeusedtoassesspolicyoptions,are
    stilldifculttocommunicatetostakeholders.
    Decision-makingcontextshavefavouredvaluation
    methodsandresultsthatarelesscontroversialinthat
    theydonotinvolvesensitivevaluejudgmentsandare
    easiertocommunicatetostakeholders(Table23.3).
    Thesearemethodswhere,inthemain,resultsareini-
    tiallyobtainedfromdirectlyobservedbehaviourin
    existingmarketsratherthanfromlaboratorytestsor
    chosenexperimentsinimplicitmarketsandarticially
    createddecisionenvironments.Theyarealsomethods
    thatcanmakethebestpossibleuseoftheinforma-
    tionthatisalreadycontainedinexistingmarketprices
    toderivethevalueofotherwaterbenets.Examples
    ofcontextswherethesemethodshavebeenusedare
    welfaremeasuressuchasavertedcosts(forexample
    measurestovaluethecoststhatwereavoidedwhen
    clean,safedrinkingwasobtained);averteddamage
    (methodstovaluetheoodmitigationservicespro-
    videdbytheenvironment);theresidualvalue(meth-
    odstoshowhowcropyieldsandfarmersincomes
    increasedwhenirrigationwasmadepossible);and
    avoidedtreatmentcost(fromthewaterpurication
    servicesprovidedbythenaturalwatercourseinstead
    ofbymanufacturedsystems).Thesemethodsprovide
    usefulinformationaboutthreeimportantcategoriesof
    waterbenets:waterasanintermediateinputtopro-
    duceothergoods,waterasanalconsumergoodand
    theenvironmentalservicesofwater.
    Consideringvaluesandspeciallyvalueperspectivesis
    ofgreatimportanceinimplementingmeasuresespe-
    ciallymeasuresrelatedtoadaptingtoclimatechange
    becausethesewillnecessarilymeanachangetothe
    statusquo.Managingparticipatorydecision-makingis
    becomingincreasinglyimportant.Inpractice,valuation
    andtheconsiderationofvalueperspectivesarefunda-
    mentalwhenbalancingtrade-ofs.Theyalsosupport
    decision-makingprocesseswherecompromisesneed
    tobereachedbetweendiferentstakeholders
    especiallywhenmanagingwaterdemandsand
    allocationdecisions(Hermansetal.,2006).
    Thereisaneedtodevelopvaluationframeworks
    thatcanbeusedininformationgatheringandpoli-
    cy-making.Thelinksbetweenecosystemsandhu-
    manwell-beingarecomplex.Abasicconceptual
    frameworkhasbeendevelopedbytheMillennium
    EcosystemAssessmentthatprovidesalogicalstruc-
    turefortheanalysisandvaluationofecosystem
    services(MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005).
    Includinginformationonthevalueofwaterinwater
    accountingframeworkswouldbeanimportantstep
    forward.TheUNStatisticsSEEAWframework(System
    ofEnvironmental-EconomicAccountsforWater)pro-
    videssuchanintegratedinformationsystemtostudy
    theinteractionsbetweentheenvironmentandthe
    economy(UNSD,2007).Itcanprovidethebasisfor
    progress,specicallybecauseitcoversthestocksand
    owsassociatedwithwater.Thereisalsoaneedfor
    furtheradaptationofvaluationmethodssothatthey
    canbetterrespondtopolicyquestionsandmanage-
    mentneeds.

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    HealthOrganization)andNORAD(TheNorwegianAgency
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    AuthorsDiegoJ.Rodriguez,CarolinevandenBergandAmandaMcMahon
    AcknowledgementsResearchassistancewasprovidedbyOlusolaIkuforiji.Thiswork
    isaproductofthestafofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thendings,
    interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreectthe
    viewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentsthey
    represent.
    CHAPTER 24
    Investing in water infrastructure,
    its operation and its maintenance
    Shutterstock/AndreyKekyalyaynen

    Developing countries face a growing funding gap as they try to keep up with the
    rehabilitation, operation, and maintenance of aging water infrastructures. New water
    systems must also be built to cope with growing populations, increasing demands for water,
    changing consumption patterns and climate change.
    More than 80% of water investment comes from public funds. While the international
    private sector has brought vital efciency improvements, their appetite for risk in developing
    countries is low and diminishing. Public or private, availability of resources for water
    infrastructure is becoming more uncertain.
    This gap can only be lled by an optimal mix of funds that is diferent for each country. But
    regardless of the formula, all countries can improve the use of money in the water sector and
    all actors have a role to play.
    When service providers are able to recover more costs, they can stop the vicious cycle
    of degraded services, making them better equipped to mitigate the risks associated with
    climate change and the volatility of nancial markets.
    By improving the way funds are allocated, transferred, and used, governments can do more
    with scarce resources and reach a level of governance that enables them to benet from
    private sector innovation and long-term nancial sustainability.
    In the meantime, development institutions can provide stopgap assistance and promote the
    consideration of greener infrastructure strategies. Assessment of tradeofs at the national
    level can yield demand-side interventions that are more cost-efective than large scale
    systems and decrease the scal burden on poor countries.
    24.1Water,riskanduncertainty
    24.1.1Background
    Economieswillnotgrowandpovertywillnotbere-
    ducedwithoutsufcientinvestmentinwaterservices
    andwaterresourceinfrastructure.Poorqualitywater
    andlimitedaccesshavesubstantialimplicationsforthe
    poor,rangingfromillhealthcausedbyunsafewaterand
    sanitationtoreducedproductivity(Fayetal.,2005).But
    adequateandwell-managedinfrastructureunderpins
    watersroleasadriverofsocio-economicdevelopment.
    The10thMillenniumDevelopmentsGoal(MDG)aims
    tohalvethenumberofpeopleworldwidewhodonot
    haveaccesstoimproveddrinkingwaterandsanitation.
    Thisisanecessaryconditionforother2015MDGs,in-
    cludingthegoalofreducingpoverty.Accordingtothe
    WorldHealthOrganization(WHO),80%ofdiseasesin
    thedevelopingworldarecausedbyunsafewater,poor
    sanitationandalackofhygieneeducation.Women
    andgirlsindevelopingcountriesbenetimmensely
    fromwell-sustainedwatersupplyandsanitationser-
    vices.Theenrolmentofgirlsinschoolriseswhenla-
    trinesareprovided,andtheimprovementofsafewater
    sourcesfreeswomenfromspendinghourseveryday
    drawingwaterandcarryingithome(WaterAid,2005).
    The2011MDGreportrevealsthatbetween1990and
    2008,morethan1.8billionpeoplegainedaccessto
    improvedsourcesofdrinkingwater.Thisraisesthe
    proportionofthepopulationwithaccessfrom77%to
    87%.Progress,however,isuneven.Theratioofruralto
    urbaninhabitantswhodonthaveaccesstoimproved
    drinkingwateris5:1.Andmeetingthesanitationtarget
    hasproveddaunting.Althoughthenumberofpeople
    withimprovedaccesstosanitationrosefrom43%in
    1990to52%in2008,overhalfoftheworldsdevelop-
    ingnationsarestillwithoutaccesstoadequatesani-
    tation(UN,2011).Andthefood,energyandnancial
    criseshaveexacerbatedmatters.
    24.1.2Globalcrises
    Waterisacriticalinputinproductionandservices,
    whichmeansthatitisdirectlyafectedbytheglob-
    alnancial,energyandfoodcrises(Winpennyetal.,
    2009).Toguaranteewatersecurity,itisnecessaryto
    addresshowthesecrisesafectwater.
    AccordingtotheGlobal Monitoring Report 2010: The
    MDGs after the Crisis,thenancialcrisisleftsome
    50millionmorepeopleinextremepovertyin2009
    and64millionmorelikelytofallintothatcategoryby
    theendof2010.Thereportalsoprojectsthatanad-
    ditional100millionpeoplemayloseaccesstodrinking
    waterby2015(Box24.1).
    Thewatersectorisvulnerabletoeconomicvagaries.
    Levelsofinvestmentinwaterwerealreadylowbefore
    thecrisisinmostdevelopingcountriesandthese
    levelsarenowevenlower,withprivatesectorpartici-
    pationinparticularfallingsharply.Ananalysisofthe
    WorldBanksPrivateParticipationinInfrastructure
    (PPI)projectdatabaseshowsthatbytheendofthe
    rstfewmonthsoffull-scalenancialcrisis,thenum-
    berofprojectshadfallenby45%andassociatedin-
    vestmentsby29%comparedwiththesameperiodin
    2007(WorldBankandPPIAF,PPIProjectDatabase).
    Winpennyetal.(2009)highlightsotherimpactsthat
    thecrisishadonnancialowstothewatersector.
    Inanancialcrisis,publicfundingismorelimitedand
    tarifrevenuesfallaspovertydeepens.This,inturn,re-
    ducestheabilityofserviceproviderstoaccessprivate
    nance(i.e.loans,bondsandequity).However,inter-
    nationalaidagenciesandmultilateraldevelopment
    bankshavemadearenewedcommitmenttoincrease
    assistancetothewatersectortoofsetthesechanges.
    Thefoodcrisisisbeingdrivenbypopulationgrowth
    andasurgeinenergyprices.Thishasledtohigh-
    erfoodpricesandbroughtmorepeoplebelowthe
    povertyline.Withtheglobalpopulationexpectedto
    increasetoninebillionby2050,HanjraandQureshi
    (2010)estimatea3,300km
    3
    peryearwatergapfor
    foodproduction.Agriculturalproductivitywhich
    accountsforover70%ofworldwidewaterconsump-
    tionhastobeincreasedtomeetthesedemands.
    Foodsecuritydependsonasustainableandefcient
    watermanagementsystem.Rosegrantetal.(2002)
    predictsaseverefoodcrisisby2025unlessfundamen-
    talpolicychangesaremadetochangefuturewateruse.
    Newinvestmentsinirrigationinfrastructureandwater
    productivitycanminimizetheimpactofwaterscarcity
    andpartiallymeetthewaterdemandsforfoodproduc-
    tion(FalkenmarkandMolden,2008).
    Climatechangewillimposeanadditionalcoston
    achievingandsustainingwatersecurity.Ananalysis
    oftheimpactthatclimatechangemayhaveonwater
    resourceswasconductedbytheIntergovernmental
    PanelonClimateChange(IPCC).Theanalysisexpects
    seriousshortagesofwaterinsemi-aridregions,which
    CHAPTER24 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 552
    WWDR4 553
    INVESTINGINWATERINFRASTRUCTURE,
    ITSOPERATIONANDITSMAINTENANCE
    BOX 24.1
    Theimpactthatthenancialcrisishashadonaccesstoimprovedwatersupplysources:Threealternativescenarios
    willresultinanincreaseinthefrequencyofdroughts
    (Batesetal.,2008).
    Extremewatersituationsafectalmosteveryone,but
    thepoorwillsufermostbecauseofwheretheylive,
    theirlowincomes,theirdecientinfrastructure,andthe
    greatreliancetheyhaveonclimate-sensitivesectors
    suchasagriculture.Forexample,overathree-yearperi-
    od,Kenyawashitbyextremeoodsthatcostitsecono-
    my16%ofitsGDPandbyanextremedroughtthatcost
    11%ofitsGDP.Poorwatermanagementwillonlyexac-
    erbatetheseproblems(WorldBank,2004).Zambias
    economytooispronetohydrologicalvariabilitythat
    willcostitUS$4.3billioninlostGDPovertenyearsand
    loweritsagriculturalgrowthbyonepercentagepoint
    eachyear(WorldBank,2008a).Becausethedominant
    livelihoodisrain-fedsubsistencefarming,droughtsand
    oodssignicantlyafectfoodsecurityintheseregions.
    BetweenUS$13billionandUS$17billionisneededan-
    nuallytohelpdevelopingcountrieswaterresourc-
    essectorstoadapttoclimatechange(WorldBank,
    2010b)andthatsjustthecostofadaptingthehard
    infrastructure.
    24.2Investmentneedsinthewatersector
    24.2.1Globalestimates
    Waterinfrastructureinanycountryrequireshugeinvest-
    ment.Andwaterservicesgenerallydonotrecovertheir
    basicoperationandmaintenancecosts.Indeveloping
    countries,wherefundsforanythingarescarceandwhere
    systemsarealreadyundertremendouspressure,funding
    forwaterrepresentsanenormousnancialburden.
    Dataonwaterinvestmentsaresparseandincom-
    pletebecauseestimatingactualneedsisdif-
    cultandfraughtwithuncertainty.Thisstemsfrom
    thelackofreliabledataonpublicspendingon
    TheGlobalMonitoringReport2010createdthreepossiblescenariostoanalysetheefectsthatthenancialcrisiswouldhave
    onGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)growthindevelopingcountries:thepost-crisistrend,thepre-crisis(highgrowth)trend
    andthelow-growthscenario.Thesewereusedinprojectingthepercentageofthepopulationindevelopingcountrieswho
    wouldnothaveaccesstoimprovedwatersources.
    1hepostcrisisscenarioshowstheefectsonCDPassumingarelativelyrapideconomicrecoverystartingin1hisis
    thereportsbasecaseforecast.
    1heprecrisishighgrowthscenarioshowswhattheefectsonCDPwouldhavebeenhaddevelopingcountriescontinued
    theimpressivegrowthpatternthatoccurredbetween2000and2007.TheimpactthatthecrisishadontheMDGscanthus
    bemeasuredbycomparingthepost-crisistrendwiththepre-crisistrend.
    1helowgrowthscenarioassumesthatthethingsthatgotworsebecauseofthefnancialcrisiswillcontinuetoadversely
    afectGDPinthemedium-term,resultinginlittleornogrowthforaboutveyears,followedbyaslowrecovery.
    Source: World Bank (2010a, table 4.2, p. 105).
    (Percentage of the population without improved water source) 2015
    Region
    2015
    Target
    1990 2006
    Post
    crisis
    Pre crisis/
    High growth
    Low
    growth
    East Asia and Pacic 16 32 13 3.3 0.6 4.1
    Europe and Central Asia 5 10 5 0 0 1.8
    Latin America and
    the Caribbean
    8 16 9 5.4 4.5 7.1
    Middle East and
    North Africa
    6 11 12 8.3 7.4 10.0
    South Asia 13 27 13 9.3 5.1 10.2
    Sub-Saharan Africa 26 51 42 39.1 38.8 39.8
    All developing countries 12 24 14 10.1 9.6 11
    CHAPTER24 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 554
    infrastructure,currentstocks,lackofasystematic
    wayofmonitoringspendinganddifcultyintrack-
    ingtheowofinvestments.Fayetal.(2010)as-
    sertsthatathoroughanalysisofinvestmentneeds
    requiresfourdistinctsteps:
    Understandhowmuchisbeingspentandhowthat
    relatestothecurrentquantityofinfrastructureand
    itsquality.
    Setatargetandhaveitpriced.Theinfrastructure
    gapisthediferencebetweencurrentspendingand
    thetarget.
    Determinehowmuchofthegapcanbebridged
    throughimprovedefciency.
    Calculatewhatadditionalspendingisneededonce
    theimprovedefcienciesareinplace(nancinggap).

    Therearedifcultiesateverystep.Countriesand-
    nancialinstitutionsdonotaccountforinfrastructure
    investmentinaclearwayinnationalaccounts,and
    inefcienciesinthesystemaredifculttoestimate.
    Yepes(2008)estimatesthatinvestmentrequirementsfor
    water,sanitationandwastewatertreatmentinlowand
    middleincomecountrieswillamounttoUS$103billion
    between2008and2015.
    1
    Thisisinlinewiththe
    $72billionestimatedbyWHOformeetingthewater
    supplyandsanitation(WSS)MDGs(OECD,2010a).
    Onaregionallevel,theAfricaInfrastructureCountry
    Diagnostic(AICD)estimatestheinvestmentneededfor
    water,sanitationandirrigation(FosterandBriceo-
    Garmendia,2010).Toclosetheinfrastructuregapin
    WSS,meettheMDGsandachievenationaltargetsin
    sub-SaharanAfricawithintenyears,anannualinvest-
    mentofapproximatelyUS$22billionisneeded.
    US$3.4billionisneededtodoubleAfricasirrigatedarea.
    24.2.2Publiccontributionstowater
    A snapshot of the current ow of public funding to the
    water sector
    Thelackofcentralizedandreliableinformationmakes
    estimatingcurrentpublicspendinginthewatersec-
    torchallenging.Itishardtoimaginesuchadeciency
    giventhatthepublicsectorcontributesapproximately
    80%ofallWSSinfrastructurecosts(Winpenny,2003,
    fromPrynnandSunman(2000).
    2
    Mostofthelimitedinformationonpublicspend-
    ingstemsfromtheOECDsDevelopmentAssistance
    Committee(DAC).Aidows,knownasOfcial
    DevelopmentAssistance(ODA),hasbecomethemain
    sourceofstatistics,althoughitincludesonlyaidfrom
    governmentsources.Aidfromprivatesources,includ-
    ingfromnon-governmentalorganizations(NGOs),is
    notcaptured.
    Ofcialdevelopmentassistance(ODA)forwaterand
    sanitationhasbeenrisingsharply.AccordingtoDAC,
    averageannualcommitmentsrosefromUS$3.3billion
    in20022003toUS$8.2billionin20082009.
    24.2.3Investmentandrisk
    Private contributions in water
    Themainsourceofreliableinformationonprivatein-
    vestmentininfrastructureisthePrivateParticipation
    inInfrastructure(PPI)database.Thisprovidesinforma-
    tiononmorethan4,800infrastructureprojectsdating
    from1984to2010,whichareownedormanagedby
    privateenergy,telecommunications,transportand
    watercompanies.
    Initslastreportingperiod(July2011),PPIreported
    thatin2010,sevenlow-ormiddle-incomecountries
    implemented25waterprojectsthatinvolvedprivate
    investmentofUS$2.3billion(Figure24.1).
    3
    Thenum-
    berofnewprojectswithprivateparticipationthat
    startedin2010was34%lowerthan2009andwasthe
    lowestannualnumbersince1995.Despitefewernew
    projectsstarting,annualinvestmentcommitmentsin
    2010were17%higherthanin2009.
    Newprivateactivityin2010includedtwenty-vepro-
    jects,withthethreelargestcomprising76%ofthe
    investmentvolume.Twocountries(ChinaandBrazil)
    accountedfortwentyoftheprojectsand36%ofthe
    investment.FifteenoftheprojectswereinChinaand
    fourteenoftheseweresmalltomediumsizedwaste-
    watertreatmentplants.Overall,privateactivityin2010
    focusedonwaterandsewagetreatmentplants,ac-
    countingforseventeenoftheprojectsandUS$1.4bil-
    lionininvestment(Figure24.2).
    Analysisofinvestmentcommitmentstoallsectors
    (energy,telecom,transportandwater)revealswater
    represents1%oftotalprivateparticipationindevel-
    opingcountries(WorldBank,2011).Andthenancial
    crisisisimposingnewchallengesfornancing.Public
    resourcesarescarcerthaneverandtheprivatesector
    isreluctanttoengageinnewundertakingsthatcould
    involveadditionalrisks.Internationalinvestmentsbring
    theaddedriskofuctuatingexchangerates,which
    domesticlendersdonotface.Between1995and2005,
    WWDR4 555
    INVESTINGINWATERINFRASTRUCTURE,
    ITSOPERATIONANDITSMAINTENANCE
    theportionofprivateinternationalowstoWSSfellby
    6%,whilelocalprivateowsroseby10%(Jimenezand
    PerezFoguet,2009).
    Investment risk in the face of uncertainty
    Eveninthedevelopedworld,robustutilitiesarevulner-
    abletoclimate-inducedriskssuchasdrought,inter-
    statedisputesoverwater,andregulatorychanges.A
    2010studybyNewYork-basedglobalequityinvestors,
    WaterAssetManagementandnon-protorganization,
    Ceres,lookedatsixwaterutilitiesintheUnitedStatesto
    assesstheirvulnerabilitytochangesinwateravailability
    upto2030(Leurig,2010).Thestudyinformsinvestors
    buyingpublicutilitybondsaboutthepotentialrisksas-
    sociatedwithchangesinhydrologicalvariabilityrisks
    whicharentcurrentlyreectedinthebondratingsis-
    suedbythethreelargestratingsagencies.Ceresreports
    thatratingsagenciesendorsetheover-useofwaterby
    rewardingutilitiesthatsellmoreofit,despiteveryreal
    supplyconstraintsinthemediumterm.
    CitiesinArizonaandNevadarelyonLakeMeadasa
    primarywatersource,butadecade-longdroughtisre-
    ducingavailablesupplies.Ontheothersideofthecoun-
    try,theCityofAtlantamayhavetoreducesuppliesby
    40%onfootofanewjudicialordertomakemorewater
    availableforenvironmentalservices.Whileeachutility
    hasadiferentcapacitytomanagesuchrisks,theirabil-
    itytoattractnancingremainsmoreorlessunscathed
    becausetheseissuesgounreported.TheWaterAsset
    ManagementCeresanalysisshedslightonthereal
    needtofactorclimaterisksanduncertaintyintolong-
    termplanning,nancingandtarifadjustments,inaddi-
    tiontodevelopingsoundadaptationplans.Fordevelop-
    ingcountries,failuretoaddresstheuncertaintyofwater
    suppliestodaywillonlyexacerbaterisksandcurtailef-
    fectivelong-termstrategicnancialplanning.
    24.2.4Opportunitiesingreengrowthandgreen
    economyagendas
    Thechallengesofpopulationgrowth,foodandenergy
    security,urbanization,volatileinternationalnancial
    ows,andclimatechangecallforsustainablesolutions
    thatreducerelianceonnaturalresources.Thegreen
    economyagendaisbeingpromotedacrossdeveloped
    anddevelopingcountriesalikeinaneforttotrans-
    formbusiness,includingtheplanninganddesignof
    newinfrastructure.Fayetal.(2010)arguethatwhen
    planningsustainabledevelopment,itisnecessaryto
    considerthesignicantenvironmentalimplicationsof
    expandinginfrastructureandtoassesstheinteractions
    betweeninfrastructurepolicyandenvironmentpolicy.
    FIGURE 24.1
    Investmentinwaterprojectswithprivateparticipation(19902010)
    Source: Perard (2011, g. 1, p. 1) (PPI Project database).
    1
    9
    9
    0
    1
    9
    9
    5
    2
    0
    0
    0
    2
    0
    0
    5
    2
    0
    1
    0
    Remaininginvestment Largecommitments Largecommitments
    Syabas
    concession
    Johor
    concession
    Chile
    divestitures
    Manila
    concession
    MalaysiasIndah
    regionsewerage
    concession
    BuenosAires
    concession
    2
    0
    1
    0

    U
    S
    $

    b
    i
    l
    l
    i
    o
    n
    s
    *
    15
    12
    9
    6
    3
    0
    *AdjustedbyUSCPI
    CHAPTER24 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 556
    Thegreeneconomychallengespolicy-makerstoim-
    provethedesignofourwaterinfrastructure,andofers
    anopportunitytoreversethetrendofover-consumption.
    Butgreeninfrastructurecomesatacost.InKorea,the
    NationalStrategyforGreenGrowthandtheFiveYear
    Plan(20092013)isexpectedtocost2%ofGDP(OECD,
    2011b).Fordevelopingcountries,suchapricewillprove
    evenmoredifculttobear.Fosteringgreeninvestment
    inthesecountrieswillrequiresolidincentivessuchas
    expandingfunding,enhancingpoliticalwill,establish-
    ingawell-denedinstitutionalframeworkand,most
    importantly,initiatingpolicyreformsthatreduceharmful
    subsidiesandpromoteanenablinginvestmentclimate.
    Inadditiontoformulatingpolicestoincreaseeconomic
    productivitywithoutdamagingtheenvironment,itisalso
    imperativetointensifyglobalenvironmentalresearchand
    easetechnologytransferforcleantechnologies.
    24.3Financingthegap
    24.3.1ALinearreformagenda
    DevelopingcountriesaloneneedtoinvestUS$72bil-
    lionayeartomeetwatersectordemands.Thisison
    topoftheestimatedUS$15billionneededforclimate
    changeadaptationmeasures.Whileinvestmentneeds
    aregrowingexponentially,developingcountriesare
    comingoutofthenancialcriseswithfeweravailable
    resources.Giventhealreadylowcapacityofutilities
    torecovercosts,whatsrequiredisamoreefcient
    combinationoftoolsthatwillnancethegapbetween
    demandandsupply.
    Narrowingthenancinggapinvolvesafour-stepre-
    formagenda.First,serviceprovidersmustreducea
    rangeofinefcienciestoincreaserevenuesandlower
    costs.Second,providersshouldtapavailablepublic
    funding(includingODAandsubsidies),whilegovern-
    mentsimprovetheefciencyandefcacyoffunds.
    Third,havingimprovedprotabilityandthequalityof
    theservicetheyprovide,utilitiescanbeginraisingtar-
    ifstoreecttherealcostsoftheservice.Finally,once
    theyhavethenecessarypoliticalwillandinstitutional
    capacity,providersshouldformpublic-privatepartner-
    shipsandapplyforcommercialloans.
    24.3.2Providingamoresustainableservice
    Inefciencies as implicit subsidies
    Inefcienciesinwaterprovisioncomeinmanydifer-
    entguises.Lowwaterproductivity,highratesofdrink-
    ingwaterconsumptionandthesubsequentowsof
    wastewaterthatneedtobecollectedandtreatedare
    alltheby-productsofinefciency.
    InAfricaalone,waterutilitieslooseapproxi-
    matelyUS$1billionayearasaresultofoperating
    FIGURE 24.2
    Waterprojectswithprivateparticipation,bysubsector(19902010)
    Source: Perard (2011, g. 2, p. 1) (PPI Project database).
    N
    o
    .

    p
    r
    o
    j
    e
    c
    t
    s
    1
    9
    9
    1
    1
    9
    9
    5
    2
    0
    0
    0
    2
    0
    0
    5
    2
    0
    1
    0
    Treatmentplant Utility Watertransfersystem
    100
    80
    60
    40
    20
    0
    WWDR4 557
    INVESTINGINWATERINFRASTRUCTURE,
    ITSOPERATIONANDITSMAINTENANCE
    inefcienciesassociatedwithpoormaintenance,
    overstafng,highdistributionlossesandunder-col-
    lectionofrevenues(FosterandBriceo-Garmendia,
    2010).TheAICDsuggeststhatAfricaswatersupply
    resourceswouldgoconsiderablyfurtherifvarious
    inefcienciesamountingtoUS$2.7billionayear
    couldbeaddressed.Inseventeencountries,these
    inefcienciesconsistingofmispricing(wheretarifs
    arebelowthecostoftheservices),collectioninef-
    cienciesandwaterlosses,areintheorderof0.6%
    ofGDP.Reducinginefciencieswillnotentirelyclose
    theexistingnancegaps,butitwillreducethem
    considerablyandenablesystemstooperatebetter.It
    mayalsopostponetheneedforcertaininvestments
    andwillcertainlyboostthenancialhealthofutilities
    andpavethewaytoprivatenancialresourcesby
    improvingcreditworthiness.
    Examininghiddencostsshowsthatpolicydecisions
    arebeingmadethatarenotcost-efective.Among
    themaincausesoflossesinwateragenciesaretarif
    regimesthatdontallowforcostrecovery,anofcial
    toleranceofarrearsandlowcollectionratesandatol-
    eranceofpilferage.Allofthesemeanthatthereisnot
    enoughmoneytocarryoutmaintenanceortoinvestin
    newinfrastructurewhichisimplicitborrowingfrom
    futuretaxpayersorfuturewaterusers.
    Efciency improvements
    Governmentsneedtoconsidereliminatingthetechni-
    calandmanagerialinefcienciesassociatedwithdeliv-
    eringwaterservices.Theyalsoneedtoconcentrateon
    creatingapolicyandregulatoryandenvironmentthat
    willattractinvestmentandthisshouldbedonebe-
    forelookingforpublicandprivatenance(Beatoand
    Vives,2008).
    Non-revenuewater(NRW)isamajorsourceofinef-
    ciencyinwaterutilities(Box24.2).Kingdometal.
    (2006)showsthatunaccounted-forwaterisrespon-
    sibleforlossesofalmostUS$14billioneachyear.This
    includesanestimated45millionm
    3
    oftreatedwater
    thatleaksfromurbanwatersupplysystemseveryday
    andanother30millionm
    3
    deliveredtoconsumersbut
    notbilledforasaresultofpilferage,corruption,and
    poormetering.Itisestimatedthatabout70%ofthese
    lossesareincurredindevelopingcountries,where
    utilitiesurgentlyneedadditionalrevenuesinorderto
    expand,andwheremanyconnectedcustomershave
    todealwithintermittentsupplyandpoorwaterqual-
    ity.ThebenetsofreducingtheamountofNRWare
    obvious,butprogrammesaimedatthisrequirestrong
    institutionalcapacityandsubstantialnancialresourc-
    es.ReducingNRWisnotonlyatechnicalissue.Ifwater
    tarifsaretoolow,thecostofreducingNRWmayex-
    ceedthemoniessaved.
    Billing and collection
    Experiencehasshownthatimprovingbillinggoesbe-
    yondsimplydeliveringinvoicesandbills.Transferring
    managementtoanorganizationthathasnancial
    autonomywillreassureusersthattheirpaymentsare
    goingtotheserviceprovider.Autonomousorgani-
    zationsthathavestronguserparticipationandare
    transparentinthewaytheysetwaterchargesare
    morelikelytoachievehighcollectionrates.Water
    userassociationscanplayanimportantroleinthis
    (Box24.3).Incentivesystemsthatencouragethe
    promptcollectionoffeescanalsocontributetoim-
    provementsincostrecovery.
    The role of technology choice
    Choosingtherighttechnologyisimportantinreduc-
    ingservicecosts.Thisafectsinitialinvestmentcosts
    aswellasoperationandmaintenancecosts.Andlower
    capitalcostsdontnecessarilymeanlowrunningcosts
    (Box24.4).
    Inaccuratemetering,unauthorizedconsumptionandleak-
    agesallresultsinnon-revenuewater(NRW).NRWshould
    beconsideredwithinthebroadercontextofutilityreform
    inordertoensurethatappropriatefundsandresources
    areallocated.Thefullscopeoftheproblemshouldbe
    identiedattheonsetbycharacterizingthesourcesof
    NRWthroughabaselineassessment.
    Theprivatesectorhasmuchtooferhere.Underaperfor-
    mance-basedservicescontract,aprivatermsremu-
    nerationisbasedonenforcedoperationalperformance
    measures.ThisstrategywasadoptedbytheCompanhia
    deSaneamentoBsicodoEstadodeSoPaulo(SABEP)
    waterutilitythatservestheSoPaulometropolitanre-
    gioninBrazil.Underathree-yearcontract,aprivatecon-
    tractorassistedtheutilitytoimprovetheproductionand
    deliveryofwaterthroughsuchactivitiesasbettermicro
    metering.Thisincreasedrevenueandreducedthecitys
    debt.Theoutcomeledtoa45millionm
    3
    increaseinthe
    volumeofmeteredconsumptionandincreasedrevenues
    ofUS$72million.
    Source: Kingdom et al. (2006).
    BOX 24.2
    Reducingtheamountofnon-revenuewater
    CHAPTER24 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 558
    costrecoverythroughtarifshasprovedelusiveeven
    inmanydevelopedcountries.
    What is cost recovery?
    Waterfeesarecollectedfromusersfortwomainobjec-
    tives,tocovercostsandtoencourageefcientwater
    use(Box24.5).Therstobjectiveistocoverthedirect
    nancialcostsinordertoguaranteeasustainableser-
    vice.Thesedirectcostscoverthebasicoperationand
    maintenanceoftheservice,therenewalofexistingin-
    frastructure,andthepossiblecapitalexpansionofwater
    services.Inmanycountries,utilitiesandirrigationagen-
    ciespassonlyafractionofthesedirectcostsontousers.
    Utilitiesindevelopingcountriesbarelycovertheirbasic
    operationandmaintenancecostsin2008,operating
    revenuescovered105%ofoperationandmaintenance
    costs(IBNET,2010).Yetlargediferencesexistbetween
    utilitiesintermsofachievingcostrecovery(Table24.1).
    Assumptionsabouttechnologychoicescanmakesigni-
    cantdiferencesintotalinvestmentrequirements.The
    costofsupplyingwaterandsanitationservicesvaries
    widelywiththelevelofserviceprovidedespeciallyin
    ruralareasbecauseoflowerpopulationdensitiesand
    highertransportcosts.Inviewofsuchlargecostdifer-
    entials,coupledwiththefactthatanexpensive,high-
    qualityserviceislikelytobeusedonlybyricherconsum-
    ersthereisarationaleforprovidingaminimumlevelof
    servicetoconsumers.Thenhigherlevelsofservicescan
    beaddedonandnancedbyhouseholdsthemselves.
    Itisalsoimportanttostandardizethetechnolo-
    giesusedinanycountry.Usingmultipletechnolo-
    giesmakessparepartshardertond(andtherefore
    moreexpensive),andthereisnotalwaysthelocal
    knowledgetodealwithmanydiferenttechnologies.
    AWaterAidStudyconductedinseventeendistricts
    inTanzaniafoundanegativecorrelationbetweenthe
    numberofdiferenttechnologiesusedinthesedis-
    tricts,andthefunctionalityrateofruralwaterpoints.
    Technologycanalsobetransformationalinllingthe
    watergapforagreeneconomy(Figure24.3).While
    newtreatmentsystemsanddamscansupplymore
    water,thereareavarietyoflower-cost,andoften
    greener,optionsformanagingdemand.Forexample,
    largequantitiesofwatercanbesavedinIndiathrough
    theuseofbetterandmoredripirrigationtechnolo-
    giessothatnewrawwatersourcesdonthavetobe
    exploited.InChina,industrialwaterreusesystemscan
    savewaterandreducetheneedtobuildexpensive
    transfersystems.Manyofthetechnologiesthatcan
    makeadiferencealreadyexistandareinuseindevel-
    opingcountries.Furtherapplicationneedstobesup-
    portedbyinstitutionsandpromotedbysectorleaders.
    24.3.3Therealcostofwater
    Water as an economic good
    Pricingwatertorecoverinvestment,operation,and
    maintenancecostshasbeenacontentiousissuefor
    decades.TheDublinprinciplesconrmedthatwateris
    ascarceresourceandaneconomicgoodsoeconom-
    icprinciplesandincentivesneedtobeusedtoimprove
    allocationandenhancequality.Yetincludingmore
    economicincentivesinwaterpricinghasproveddif-
    cult.Historically,WSSandirrigationchargeshavebeen
    systematicallyunder-priced.Soachievingfullcost
    recoverythroughtarifsanduserchargesalonewill
    requirepricehikesthataredifculttomanagepoliti-
    cally,andmaymakewaterservicesunafordable.Full
    BOX 24.3
    Waterusersassociationsasanessentialcomponent
    inimprovingcostrecovery:Anirrigationsystems
    examplefromtheKyrgyzRepublic
    Anon-farmirrigationprojectwasimplementedinthe
    KyrgyzRepublicbetween2000and2008.Itsaimwas
    toincreasecropproductionthroughreliableandsus-
    tainablewaterdistributionacrosssevenadministrative
    regions.Farminfrastructurewasalsorehabilitatedunder
    themanagementofwaterusersassociations(WUAs).
    ThetargetedWUAsrepresented166,000members,who
    managedsome710,000hectares,or70%ofthecountrys
    irrigatedland.
    MembersfromeachparticipatingWUAsignedanagree-
    menttorepay25%ofthefarmrehabilitationcosts,raise
    irrigationfeestosupporttheirWUA,andpaythewater
    supplieranirrigationservicefeeforwaterdeliveredtothe
    WUAsheadgate.
    Considerablesuccesswasachieved:
    1heperformanceoftheWUAmemberswasimproved
    lnfrastructurethatfedhectareswasrehabilitat-
    ed,andirrigationwaterdeliveredtofarmersin80%of
    therehabilitatedsystemsnowcloselymatchesdemand.
    1hreeagriculturalseasonslaterirrigationservicefees
    havedoubledonaverageandcollectionratesbyWUAs
    arecloseto100%.
    Overallcostrecoveryrosefromabouttoand
    atleast80%ofwaterusersweresatisedwiththeper-
    formanceofWUAmanagement.
    Source: World Bank (2008b).
    WWDR4 559
    INVESTINGINWATERINFRASTRUCTURE,
    ITSOPERATIONANDITSMAINTENANCE
    Theproportionofutilitiesthatwerenotabletocover
    theirbasicoperationandmaintenancecostsincreased
    from35%in2000to43%in2008withmostofthat
    increaseoccurringsincethefuelcrisishitthesector
    andincreasedoperatingcostssubstantially.Theefect
    isespeciallynoticeableinlow-incomecountries,where
    therewasasharperincreaseinthenumberofutilities
    thatcouldnotcoverbasicoperationandmaintenance
    costs.Inirrigation,overallcostrecoveryratestendto
    beevenlower.EasterandLiu(2005)showthatfederal
    irrigationprojectsintheUnitedStatesgenerallydonot
    recovermorethan20%ofcostsfromfarmers.Indevel-
    opingcountries,thepictureisevengrimmer.
    Thesecondobjectiveforchargingforwaterinvolves
    pricingtoprovideincentivestousewatermoreef-
    ciently.Notchargingforwateroftenresultsinunsus-
    tainablelevelsofconsumptionthatresultinearlyde-
    pletionofwaterresourceswhichultimatelyincreases
    thecostsofproduction.
    Improvingwateruseefciencyrequiresincreasingthe
    valueofeachunitofwaterconsumed.Thisisalready
    politicallydifcult,butitwillbecomemoreimportant
    aswaterscarcityincreases.Toguaranteeeconomicsus-
    tainability,usersshouldbechargedthefullsupplycosts,
    plusthecostscreatedbyanyexternalities.
    5
    Externalities
    The2009report,Charting our Water Future: Economic Frameworks to Inform Decision-Making,isastudycarriedoutbythe
    2030WaterResourcesGroupandledbytheInternationalFinanceCorporationandMcKinsey&Company.Itprovidesaneval-
    uationofthescaleofthewaterchallenge,estimatingthatby2030,globalwaterrequirementsmaygrowbyover40%from
    4,500billionm
    3
    to6,900billionm
    3
    .
    Demandforagriculturalwater,whichcurrentlyaccountsfor71%ofwaterused,isprojectedtobemostsignicantinthepoor-
    estregions-India(1,195billionm
    3
    ),sub-SaharanAfrica(820billionm
    3
    ),andChina(420billionm
    3
    ).InIndia,closingthe2030
    gapcouldcostbetweenUS$0.10perm
    3
    andUS$0.50perm
    3
    .Meetingnewdemandbybuildinglargeinfrastructure(right
    sideofthecurve)willbecostly.However,manyofthedemand-sideinterventions(leftsideofthecurve)arenotonlymore
    costefective,butsupportagreeneconomybyfocusingonresourcesavingsoverincreasedexploitation.Byassessingthe
    trade-ofsbetweennewinfrastructureanddemand-sidemeasures,countriescandenetheappropriatemixofinterventions
    forllingthegapbetweenfuturewaterdemandandsupply.

    Thereportproposesthatfuturedemandforwatercouldbemetthroughcost-efectivemeasuresusingexistingtechnologies.
    BOX 24.4
    Thecostofagriculturalwaterdemand
    Source: 2030 Water Resources Group (2009, p. 12).
    Agricultural
    Industry
    MunicipalandDomestic
    Supply
    IndiaWateravailabilitycostcurve
    No-tillfarming
    0.80
    0.10
    0.08
    0.06
    0.04
    0.02
    0
    -0.02
    -0.04
    -0.06
    Reducedover-irrigation
    Irrigatedfertilizerbalance
    Systemofriceintensication(SRI)
    Rain-fedfertilizerbalance
    Irrigateddrainage
    Rain-feddrainage
    Geneticcropdevelopment-irrigated
    Lastmileinfrastructure
    Rainfedintegratedplantstressmanagement
    Geneticcropdevelopmentrainfed
    Smallinfrastructure
    Articialrecharge
    Sprinklerirrigation
    Industriallevers
    Reducetransportlosses
    Increasefertilizeruse
    Municipalleakage
    Rainwaterharvesting
    Post-harvesttreatment
    On-farmcanallining
    Desalination(reverseosmosis)
    Desalination(thermal)
    250 500 750 1,000 1,250
    Dripirrigation
    Irrigatedgermplasm
    Irrigatedintegratedplant
    stressmanagement
    Rain-fedgermplasm
    Infrastructurerehabilitation
    Incremental
    availablity
    Billionm
    3
    Wastewaterreuse
    Largeinfrastructure
    Aquiferrechargesmall
    Ag.rainwaterharvesting
    Deepgroundwater
    Municipaldams
    Pre-harvesttreatment
    Nationalriverlinking
    project(NRLP)
    Shallowgroundwater
    Gapin2030=755,800millionm
    3
    Costtoclosegap=US$5.9billion
    Specieddecitin
    betweensupply
    andwater
    requirements2030
    Costofadditionalwateravaiabilityin2030
    $/m
    3
    CHAPTER24 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 560
    includethecosttoproducersandconsumers(economic
    externalities)andtopublichealthandecosystems(en-
    vironmentalexternalities).Includingexternalitiesislikely
    tosubstantiallyincreasethetotalcostofmanywater
    services,whichiswhyfewpricingsystemsintheworld
    includethemintheirpricingstructures.
    Inadequatecostrecoveryisafunctionnotonlyoflow
    tariflevels,butalsooflowcollectionrates,unaccounted-
    forwaterandotheroperationalefciencies.The2009,
    evaluationofwatersectorprojectsconductedbythe
    IndependentEvaluationGroupoftheWorldBankcon-
    cludedthatforWSSprojects,thefactorthatcontribut-
    edmosttosuccessfullymeetingcostrecoverytargets
    wasimprovingcollectionrates(IEG,2009).Mostoften
    thisinvolvedincreasingthecapacityandwillingness
    ofwaterinstitutionstocollectfeesfrombeneciaries.
    Increasingwatertarifsalsohadadiscernibleimpact
    onoverallprojectresults(WorldBank,2010c).
    24.3.4Improvingtheuseofpublicfunds
    Subsidies revisited
    Whenconsumersdonotpaythefullcostoftheser-
    vice,someoneelsehastobridgethenancegap.This
    iseitherfutureconsumers,currentorfuturetaxpayers
    oracombinationofthese.
    Mostofthenancinggapispaidforbygovernment
    subsidies(taxes).Subsidiesareubiquitousinthesec-
    torforfundingbothcapitaloutlayandoperations
    andmaintenancecosts.Therearevariousinstruments
    throughwhichsubsidiesarechannelled.Theseinclude
    capitalandoperatingsubsidies,socialsafetynets,con-
    sumptionsubsidies,andcross-subsidies.
    Sources: Garrido and Calatrava (2010); Francois et al.(2010);
    Commission of the European Communities (2000).
    TABLE 24.1
    Medianoperatingcostcoverageinutilities
    Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    Operating cost coverage
    (ratio of operating revenues
    over operation and
    maintenance costs)
    1.11 1.13 1.10 1.11 1.08 1.07 1.07 1.08 1.05
    Standard deviation 0.55 0.56 0.58 0.61 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.50
    Number of utilities
    reporting
    579 615 723 999 1 151 1 173 1 379 1 229 930
    Note: The 2008 data collection cycle is not yet complete.
    Source: Van den Berg and Danilenko (2011, table 3.6, p. 23).
    Indevelopedcountries,capitalsubsidiesarerelatively
    common.IntheUnitedStates,capitalinvestmentsare
    oftenfundedthroughtax-freemunicipalbonds.This
    BOX 24.5
    WhattheEuropeanUnionWaterFramework
    Directivesaysaboutwaterpricing
    Article9oftheEuropeanUnionWaterFramework
    Directive(WFD)requiredMemberStatestoadoptwater
    pricingpoliciesby2010thatprovidedadequateincentives
    fortheefcientuseofwaterresources.
    Waterservicecostsincludeenvironmentalcosts,andare
    basedonthepolluter paysprinciplewhetherthatuseris
    industry,agricultureorindividualhouseholds.Therationale
    behindthepolluterpaysprincipleistomitigateenviron-
    mentalproblemsthroughrelianceoneconomicefciency.
    TheWFDsconceptofcostrecoveryisbasedontwolev-
    elsofrecovery,nancialrecoveryandenvironmentaland
    resourcerecovery.
    Financialcostsorthefullcostofsupply1hisincludes
    thecostsofprovidingandadministeringwaterservices.
    Itincludesalloperationandmaintenancecosts,capital
    costs(includinginitialoutlayandinterestpayments),
    andanyreturnonequity.
    Pesourcecosts1heserepresentopportunitieslostto
    otherusesasaresultofthedepletionoftheresourcebe-
    yonditsnaturalrateofrechargeorrecovery(forexam-
    ple,costslinkedtotheover-abstractionofgroundwater).
    Lnvironmentalcosts1heserefertothecostofdamage
    thatwateruseimposesontheenvironmentandeco-
    systems(forexample,theecologicalqualityofaquatic
    ecosystemscanbedamagedandproductivesoilscan
    becomesaliferousanddegraded).
    WWDR4 561
    INVESTINGINWATERINFRASTRUCTURE,
    ITSOPERATIONANDITSMAINTENANCE
    meansthatutilitiesareprovidedwithanimplicitsubsidy.
    Similarly,intheEuropeanUnion,utilitiesreceivegener-
    ouscapitalinvestmentgrantstoaidcompliancewith
    stringentwastewaterstandards.Indevelopingcountries,
    watersectorsubsidiesareprovidedintheformofcapi-
    talgrantsandalsooftenintheformofoperatingsubsi-
    dies,whichcreatesseveredistortionsintheproduction
    andconsumptionofservices.Operatingsubsidieshave
    considerabledrawbacksbecausetheydistortincentives
    formoreefcientuseofwater.Highlyinefcientsys-
    temsthatreceiveoperatingsubsidiesdonothaveany
    incentivestoimproveservices.
    Inwatersupplyandseweragesystems,wherecov-
    erageisfarfromuniversal,subsidiestendtobenet
    thosealreadyconnectedtothepipedsystemwhich
    tendstobebetter-ofhouseholds.A2007evaluation
    ofthirty-twowatersubsidyprogramsshowedthat
    quantity-basedsubsidies,themostcommontypeof
    subsidy,donotreachthepoorcustomerstheytarget
    (Komivesetal.,2007).Connectionsubsidies,aswellas
    consumptionsubsidiesthataremeans-testedorgeo-
    graphicallytargeted,haveabetterrecordofreaching
    thepoorthanquantity-basedsubsidies.
    TheAICDalsoshowedthatinAfrica,around90%of
    beneciarieswithaccesstopipedwateraretherichest
    60%ofthepopulation.Insuchacontext,anysubsidy
    forpipedwaterislargelycapturedbybetter-ofhouse-
    holds.Inirrigation,wealthierfarmerstendtobenet
    moreproportionallyfromsubsidiesthanpoorerfarmers.
    TheWorldPanelforFinancingWaterInfrastructure
    callsforagreaterassurancethatresourcesforsubsi-
    diesarebudgetedinadvance,aspartofatrendto-
    wardsamoresustainablecostrecovery(Winpenny
    2003).Whenlargegovernmentsubsidiesarenotpro-
    videddirectlyandonaregularbasis,wateragencies
    tendtopostponemaintenance,whichshortensthe
    life-spanoftheassetsandmeansthatinfrastructure
    needstobereplacedmoreoften.Irregularandinad-
    equatesubsidiescanalsoresultininvestmentsnotbe-
    ingmadeanduntreatedwastewaterbeingdischarged
    intowaterbodies,groundwaterresourcesbeingover-
    exploited,andhigherpollutionlevels.
    Crosssubsidies,wherebyindustrialuserspaymoreto
    supportthecostofresidentialuse,arequitecommon
    inWSS,andthedirectscalrepercussionsaresmall.
    Whetherthisinstrumentcanworkdependslargelyon
    thetarifstructure.Maxingoutcross-subsidiescanbe
    problematic.Ifcostsbecometooexpensivefornon-
    residentialwaterusers,theymayoptoutofthepiped
    watersupplysystem,therebyunderminingutilitiesrev-
    enuebase.TheInternationalBenchmarkingNetworkfor
    WaterandSanitationUtilities(IBNET)database
    4
    shows
    thatin2008,theaveragewatercompanychargednon-
    residentialusersupto1.35timesmorepercubicmeter
    thantheychargedresidentialusers.Highlevelsofcross-
    subsidiestendtobemorecommoninlow-incomecoun-
    triesthaninmiddle-incomecountries.
    Becausesubsidiesdistortincentives,somebasicprin-
    ciplesshouldbesetinplace.Subsidiesshould:
    bepredictabletoensurelonger-termplanningand
    budgeting;
    betransparent,andreviewedcontinuouslyto
    ensurethattheyprovideincentivestoimprove
    performance;
    bereducedovertimetoallowchargestotakeover;
    and
    takeafordabilityintoconsideration.
    Management of government transfers
    Althoughthereissufcientscopeforfullcostrecovery
    intheshort-to-mediumterm,theroleofgovernment
    transfersisanessentialelementinensuringthelong-
    termsustainabilityofthesector.Althoughnoglobal
    dataexistonthesizeofgovernmenttransfersinthe
    sector,anecdotalevidencesuggestthattheyarelarge.
    Theprevalenceofcapitalandoperatingsubsidiesishigh.
    Asignicantportionofthesehiddencostsisusedto
    supportoperationandmaintenanceofexistingsystems.
    Theseimplicitsubsidiestendtoberegressive,beneting
    arelativelysmall,well-of,groupofconsumers.InAfrica,
    40%ofgovernmenttransfersareusedforoperation
    andmaintenance,resultingincapitalinvestmentbeing
    crowdedoutandlimitingthecapacityofcountriesto
    invest(FosterandBriceo-Garmendia,2010).
    Largergovernmenttransfers,however,willnotneces-
    sarilyresultinimprovedaccesstosustainablewater
    services.Whenlargeowsofresourcesinthesector
    aremanagedbythegovernment,theefciencyand
    efectivenesswithwhichtheyaremanagedbecomes
    criticaltothesustainabilityoftheservices.Countries
    mustlookattheincentivesandpotentialbottlenecks
    inscalandpublicnancepolicies,andnotonlyatthe
    waythatnancialresourcesaremanaged.
    Anewtoolthatisprovinginstrumentalinunderstand-
    ingtheowofpublicfundsinwateristhePublic
    CHAPTER24 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 562
    ExpenditureReview(PER).APERisconcernedwith
    public-based(notalwaysgovernment)revenuesand
    expenditureasexpressionsofpublicpolicyandpublic
    involvementintheeconomy(WorldBank,2009).It
    entailsacarefulexaminationandanalysisofthefunda-
    mentaldriversofpublicnance.Therecommendations
    provideguidancetogovernmentsoncriticalreform
    processesthatcanbetakentoensureefciency,ef-
    cacyandtransparencyintheuseofpublicmonies
    owingtooneormanysectors.
    Since2003,theWorldBankhasfunded40PERsin
    whichthewatersectorfeaturedinsomecapacity.A
    quickassessmentofsomeofthewatersectorPERs
    suggeststhattheefciencyandefectivenessofhow
    governmentsallocate,disburseanduseresourcesin
    thesectorcanbeimproved.Anumberofcountries
    thathaveundertakentheseexerciseshaveadopted
    comprehensivebudgetlegislation,reducedwastein
    publicexpenditure,givengreaterbudgetautonomyto
    localgovernments,andattemptedtoopenbudgetsto
    publicscrutiny(Deolalikar,2008).
    Theefciency(isthemoneyspentontherightthings?)
    andefectiveness(isthemoneyspentwellinlightof
    theallocationdecisions?)ofexpenditurecanbeaf-
    fectedbymanyfactors.TheWorldBankiscompiling
    areportbasedonndingsfrom15PERsinsub-Saha-
    ranAfrica(WorldBank,2012).Itdocumentsregional
    trendsandprovidesopportunitiesforthemoreef-
    cientuseofpublicfunds.Forexample,adequateregu-
    lationsandinstitutionsgenerallyexistintheregion,
    butcapacityisweak.Bybringinglineministriesinto
    thebudgetingprocess,investmentswillbemorereal-
    istic,appropriate,andresponsivetoneeds.Countries
    canalsoimproveadherencetoprocurementplans,
    createmorebylawstoaidimplementationofreforms,
    andreconcentrateutilitystaftolocallevelstorealize
    decentralization.
    AsdemonstratedinmanyPERs,sector-specicis-
    suesplayamajorroleinexplainingtheperformance
    oftranslatingfundsintoactualoutcomes.Threeways
    inwhichefciencycanbeenhancedare(i)byimprov-
    ingsectorandinvestmentplanning;(ii)byimproving
    thecapacitytoprocure,disburse,auditandmonitor
    resources;and(iii)maintainasharperfocusonincen-
    tivesintheallocationoffunds.
    First,althoughitsusehasdeclinedinrecentyears,
    cost-benetanalysismustbeusedtoimprove
    investmentplanningandprioritization.Watervariabil-
    ityshouldbeakeyconcernforlong-termplanningin
    bothdevelopedanddevelopingcountries.Sensitivity
    andriskanalysiscanhelptodeterminehowrobust
    variousinvestmentsaretochangesincircumstance.
    Sectorplanningshouldbecombinedwithmulti-year
    budgetingtoensurethatshort-,medium-andlong-
    terminvestmentscanbeimplementedproperly.
    Second,governmentsmustimprovedisbursement
    functions,oftenamajorsourceoftheinefciencies
    thatcausehigherprocurementcosts.Forexample,
    latefundsresultinbudgetsnotbeingfullycarriedout,
    whichmayhaveimplicationsforfutureaccesstofunds.
    Manydevelopingcountrieshaveinefcientmecha-
    nismstotransferresourcesfromcentral,toregional,
    andthentolocalauthorities.Yearlybudgetcyclesof-
    tenentailthatcapitalworksmustbecontractedand
    completedwithinthecycle.Lackofcapacityinpro-
    curementcurtailsanddelaysinvestmentinthesector.
    Third,byusingresults-basedincentives,wateragen-
    ciescanaccessfundsonthebasisoftheirperfor-
    mance,aslongastangibleandveriableresultsare
    accomplished.Results-basednancing(RBF)encom-
    passesarangeofmechanismsthataredesignedto
    enhancethedeliveryofinfrastructureandsocialser-
    vicesthroughtheuseofperformance-basedincentives,
    rewards,andsubsidies.Afundingentity(typicallya
    governmentorsub-governmentalagency)providesa
    nancialincentive,onconditionthattherecipientun-
    dertakespre-determinedactionsorachievesparticular
    outputs.Resourcesaredisbursednotagainstindivid-
    ualexpendituresorcontractsontheinputside(asis
    traditionallydone),butagainstdemonstratedandin-
    dependentlyveriedresultsthatarelargelywithinthe
    controloftherecipient.
    RBFscanbestructuredinseveralwaysdependingon
    theobjectivesandgoalssetbythegovernment.There
    areseveraltypesofRBFmechanism,includingcarbon
    nancestrategies,conditionalcashtransfers,output-
    baseddisbursements,andadvancemarketcommit-
    ments.TheapplicationofRBFsinthewatersectoris
    quitelimited,butinrecentyearssomeprojectshave
    beennancedthroughtheGlobalPartnershipon
    Output-BasedAid(GPOBA).Thisisadonortrustfund
    managedbytheWorldBank.OBAinthewatersector
    isgenerallyapaymentofasubsidytocoverpro-poor
    access.Servicedeliveryiscontractedouttoaservice
    provider(privateorpublicutilityoranNGO),with
    WWDR4 563
    INVESTINGINWATERINFRASTRUCTURE,
    ITSOPERATIONANDITSMAINTENANCE
    paymenttiedtotheachievementofspeciedperfor-
    manceoroutputs.OBAsubsidiescaneitherbuydown
    thecapitalcostorcoverthediferencebetweenanaf-
    fordableuserfeeandacost-recoveryuserfee,suchas
    aconsumptionsubsidy.
    GPOBAhasapprovedclosetoUS$4billioningrants.
    Ofthese,US$137millionisforWSS.Therearecurrently
    22projectswithWorldBankparticipationwithapprox-
    imatelyUS$140millionallocatedtosubsidies:15are
    watersupplyschemes,3aresanitationschemes,and4
    providebothwaterandsanitation(KumarandMugabi,
    2010).Manyoftheseprojectsarealreadyshowing
    promisingresults.Withinlessthanayear,6,700con-
    nectionsweremadeinCameroon(projecttargetis
    40,000);inIndia,77,000connectionswerecomplet-
    edinruralcommunitiesinAndhraPradesh.Thereare,
    however,criticismsofOBA,includinghighcostsand
    lowleverageofcommercialfunds.KumarandMugabi
    arguethatcountrieswithsoundregulatoryframe-
    works,goodcapacityforimplementingprogrammes,
    andexperiencewithprivatesectorprovisionhave
    moresuccessthanothers.
    The role of external and internal governance in the sector
    Goodgovernanceispartandparcelofthesuccessful
    implementationofnancereforms.Goodgovernance
    hasseveraldimensions,frompoliticalstability,ruleof
    law,governmentefectiveness,andregulatoryqual-
    ity,tovoiceandaccountabilityandcorruptioncontrol.
    Improvinggovernancestructuresrequiresidentifying
    themainactorsandclarifyingtheirexactmandatewith
    regardtothekeyfunctionsof:(i)policyformulation;
    (ii)assetmanagementandinfrastructuredevelopment;
    (iii)serviceprovision;(iv)nancingthesectorandthe
    developmentofwaterinfrastructure;and(v)regulation
    oftheservice.Clarifyingthecontractualarrangement
    thatallowstheactorstointeractwitheachother,and
    assessingtheadequacyoftheinstrumentsusedbythe
    actorstofulltheirmandatesarecriticalstepsinunder-
    standinggovernanceframeworks.Ofcialpoliciesare
    oftennotfullycarriedoutincountriesthathaveweak
    governanceregimes.Itisimportanttolookatthede
    factofunctioningofinstitutionsratherthanatthepaper
    policyframework(LocussolandvanGinneken,2010).
    Improvedsectorgovernance,bettermanagementof
    publicfunds,andefciencyimprovementsattheutil-
    itylevelcanimprovewaterservicesfortheenduser.
    Providerscanthenconsiderincreasingtariflevelsto
    achievegreater(orfull)costrecovery.Atthisstage,
    providerswillbeabletojustifyincreasesintariflevels,
    enablingthemtobettersaveforfutureinvestmentsand
    achievethecreditworthinessneededtoaccessdomestic
    andinternationalcommercialnanceinthelong-run.
    24.3.5Translatingreformsintorevenue
    Increasing tarifs
    Whenuserspayalargershareoftheactualcostof
    waterservices,thereismorerationaluseofwater.
    However,raisingtarifswhenservicequalityislowisa
    difculttask.Inmanycountries,watertarifincreases
    arelowerthaninationwhichresultsincheaperwa-
    terovertime.Keepingupwithinationisnotatrivial
    factor.Pricesmustbedeterminednotonlytoguard
    againstfurthererosionofawateragencysrevenue
    base,butalsotoensurethatnoperverseincentiveto
    consumemorewaterisestablished.
    Since2000,theaveragerevenuepercubicmeterof
    watersoldhasmorethandoubledtoUS$0.71inthe
    utilitiesparticipatinginIBNET(SeeTable24.2).The
    variationintherevenuesgeneratedperm
    3
    watersold
    betweenutilitiesalsolevelledofsuggestingthat
    moreutilitiesaremovinginthesamedirection.
    Suchreformishelpingtoreduceconsumption.Inlow-
    incomecountriesbetween2000and2008,consump-
    tionfellsharplyfrom138Lpercapitaperday(lpcd)to
    75lpcd(VandenBergandDanilenko,2011).
    Despitetheincentivetoconservewater,manycoun-
    triesstillfacesignicantchallengestoincreasingwater
    tarifs.EveninOECDcountries,keepingtoreal,rather
    thannominal,levelsoftarifshasbeentricky(OECD
    2010),withseveralcountriesshowingadecreasingav-
    erageannualrateofchangeintariflevelsoverthelast
    decadewhenadjustedforination.
    The role of publicprivate partnerships
    PPPswereestablishedinmostdevelopingcountriesto
    bridgegapsinnancing,expertiseandmanagement
    inordertoimprovetheperformanceofpublicutilities.
    Theseobjectivescanbeachievedundervariouscon-
    tractualschemesthroughcollaborativeefortsofthe
    privateoperatorsandcontractinggovernment.
    Marin(2009)analysedmorethansixty-vewater
    projectswithPPPsintheurbanwatersectorinde-
    velopingcountriesoverafteen-yearperiod.Results
    suggestthatthoughsomeprojectsperformedbetter
    thanothers,theoverallperformanceofwaterPPPs
    CHAPTER24 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 564
    hasbeensatisfactory.Theurbanpopulationser-
    vicedbyprivateoperatorsinthedevelopingworld
    rosesteadilyfrom94millionin2000tomorethan
    160millionbytheendof2007(Marin,2009).PPP
    projectshaveprovidedtopipedwatertomorethan
    24millionpeopleindevelopingcountriessince1990.
    Someofthemajorndingsofthestudyinclude:
    The largest contribution of private operators was
    through improved service quality and operational
    efciency. Improvementsachievedthroughopera-
    tionalefciencyandqualityservicedependson
    theallocationofresponsibilitiesandrisks,which
    isbasedonmultiplefactorssuchastheincentive
    structureandthenatureofthearrangement.
    Efcient private operators have a positive, although
    mostly indirect, nancial contribution. Theydothis
    byimprovingthecreditworthinessoftheutility
    andallowingittosecureinvestmentfundingmore
    easilyandatbetterterms.Abetterserviceincreas-
    escustomerswillingnesstopay,andthisimproves
    collectionratesandmakesraisingtarifseasier.
    ExperiencesfromCotedIvoireandGabonshow
    thatoperatingefcientlyenabledinvestmentsto
    befundedthroughcashowsformorethanadec-
    adewithoutneedingtoincurnewdebt.
    Successful water PPPs have to be implemented
    within a well-conceived, broader sectoral re-
    form.Successfulexperiencesincountriessuchas,
    Colombia,CotedIvoire,andMoroccoshowthat
    introducingPPPswaspartofawiderreformtoes-
    tablishasectorframeworkthatsupportednan-
    cialviabilityandaccountabilityforperformance.
    Thesecountrieshadclearpoliciesinplacetomove
    tocostrecoverytarifsinasustainableandsocially
    acceptablemanner.
    Establishing a good partnership that achieves tan-
    gible results takes time.Ittookadecadetoachieve
    thedesiredresultsinSenegal.TheoutcomeofaPPP
    dependsheavilyonsolidcollaboration,andgovern-
    mentofcialsneedtomoveawayfromoldhabitsof
    interferingintheoperationofwaterutilities.
    Traditional classication of PPP projects as man-
    agement contracts, lease-afermages, and conces-
    sions have become obsolete.Themostsustainable
    projectsobservedinthestudydidnottintoanyof
    thetraditionalcategories.
    Thestudyisthemostcomprehensiveanalysistodatein
    thesectoranditsrecommendationsareinstrumentalin
    ensuringtheproperdesignofthenextgenerationofPPP
    arrangementsparticularlygiventhefactthatlocalprivate
    operatorsareenteringthemarketmoreandmore.
    Conclusionsandrecommendations:
    Thewayforward
    Globalnancialvolatilityandwaterstresshavecom-
    binedtobringanewsetofchallengestothedevelop-
    ingworld.Inthecontextofgrowingrisk,morefre-
    quentoodsanddroughts,anduncertaintyaboutthe
    availabilityofcapitalandrawwatersuppliesfordrink-
    ing,sanitationandproduction,countriesmustanalyse
    thetrade-ofsandmakedifcultdecisionsabouthow
    tonancevitalwaterservices.
    Closingthenancinggapinthewatersectorrequiresthe
    applicationofarangeofinstrumentsincludinghigher
    collectionrates,moreefcientserviceprovisionwith
    lowercosts,moretargetedsubsidies,andhigheruser
    charges.Itislikelytobealonger-termprocessinwhich
    theappropriatemixofinstrumentswillchangeovertime.
    Suchefciencies,evenintheabsenceoffullcostrecovery,
    willimprovetheabilityofutilitiestoadapttofuturerisk,
    andwillmakethemlessdependentonexternalfunding.
    TABLE 24.2
    Averagerevenuesperm
    3
    watersold(inUS$)medianvalues
    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    Average revenues 0.37 0.34 0.28 0.32 0.37 0.43 0.50 0.63 0.71
    Standard deviation 0.34 0.34 0.37 0.42 0.47 0.50 0.53 0.59 0.51
    Number of utilities
    reporting
    567 632 725 982 1 137 1 154 1 188 1 203 878
    Note: The 2008 data collection cycle is not yet complete.
    Source: Van den Berg and Danilenko (2011, table 3.8, p. 26).
    WWDR4 565
    INVESTINGINWATERINFRASTRUCTURE,
    ITSOPERATIONANDITSMAINTENANCE
    Decisionsabouthowtoallocatethecostofwaterser-
    vicesdependsonpoliticalpreferences,butitalsode-
    pendsonthestructureofthelocalwatermarket.Itis
    importantthatanexplicitagreementisreachedonwho
    paysfortheuncoveredportionofthecosts.Without
    suchanarrangement,therealcostsofwaterservices
    maybedeferredintothefuture,seriouslyhampering
    short-termandmedium-termsustainability.Anyalloca-
    tionofcoststhroughstakeholdersmusttakeintocon-
    siderationsocialequityandafordability.Subsidiesplay
    acriticalsocialfunctioninthedistributionofequity.
    Becausethemajorityoffundsinthesectorarepublic
    monies,moreattentionshouldbepaidtotheefciency
    andefcacyofpublictransfersandsubsides.Thepoliti-
    calcostsofremovingsubsidiesisusuallyveryhigh,par-
    ticularlygiventhatbetter-ofusersareusuallythemain
    beneciaries.Tarifsthatreectthecostofinationcan
    assistinmaintainingthetrendtowardlowerpercapita
    consumption,whilethosethataccountforenvironmen-
    talexternalitiescangoonestepfurtherbyaddressing
    waterscarcityandsupportingagreeneconomy.
    Trade-ofswillneedtobemadeasnancialsustainability
    islikelytobeonlyoneofseveralobjectivesthatformpart
    ofagovernmentsagendatoimprovetheperformance
    ofthewatersector.Makingthesetrade-ofsmoreexplicit
    willimproveaccountabilityandtransparency.Theymay
    alsoincentivizemuch-neededreform,suchasstrategies
    foragreeneconomyandimprovedconservation.
    PublicExpenditureReviewsandresults-basednanc-
    ingaretoolsthatcanimprovethefunctionalityofare-
    source-constrained,inefcientsector.Similarly,public-
    privatepartnershipshavesomesuccessinthesector
    andoferopportunitiesforrisk-sharingintodaysun-
    certainenvironment.Ensuringthatinstitutionalcapaci-
    tiesarestrengthenedtoimplementsomeofthenew
    methodsandtoolsshouldbeapriority.


    Notes
    1 Includeslowincomeandlowtomiddleincomecountries.
    Analysisisbasedonatop-downapproachusingdataon
    infrastructureservicesandparametersforconstructionand
    maintenancecoststomodelinvestmentneeds.(Yepes,2008).
    2 Thesectorsnancialsourceswereestimated,inthemid-1990s,
    tobe:domesticpublicsector6570%,domesticprivate
    sector5%,internationaldonors1015%andinternational
    privatecompanies1015%.
    3 IncludesasecondpartialdivestitureofautilityinChina.Chongqing
    WaterAfairsCompanysold6%ofitscapital(US$516million)via
    aninitialpublicoferingontheShanghaiStockExchange.
    4 TheInternationalBenchmarkingNetworkforWaterand
    SanitationUtilities(IBNET)istheworldlargestdatabaseof
    performancedataforwaterandsanitationutilities.
    5 Externalitiescanbepositive(benets)ornegative(costs).
    Whenexternalitiesarepositive,theeconomiccostsofthewater
    servicearelowerthanthenancialcosts;theoppositeistrue
    whentheexternalitiesarenegative.

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    AuthorsHkanTroppandJohnJoyce
    ContributorsRoseOsindeandMajaSchlter
    CHAPTER 25
    Water and institutional change:
    Responding to present and future
    uncertainty
    Shutterstock/MarkusGebauer

    A mounting water challenge is how to manage uncertainty of present and future variability
    in precipitation, evaporation, and water uses and demands. Policy-makers and water
    managers around the world grapple with water availability, water supply and water demand
    uncertainties, magnied by pressures such as climate change, economic growth, and
    population growth and mobility. These pressures impact on the spatial and temporal
    distribution of water resources. Uncertainty appears in technical, social and natural systems
    (Brugnach et al., 2009). Natural systems include for example climate change impacts.
    Technical systems include human interventions that afect the supply of water, such as dams
    and irrigation canals. Social systems have cultural, political, economic, legal, demographic,
    administrative and organizational dimensions that add to the complexities of managing
    water resources. Growing populations and urbanization coupled with changing consumption
    preferences contribute to uncertainty in water demands. Various and often conicting water
    demands have to be satised with varying levels of political will, scarce nancial resources,
    and a decit of efective institutions and management approaches.
    An example of the impacts of complexities and uncertainty in water-related decision-making is
    illustrated by the Australian farmers who in 2007, swayed by a favourable rainfall forecast after a
    multi-year drought, took out loans or sold their expected crops on futures markets. Unfortunately,
    the rainfall that actually occurred was much lower than predicted, so many farmers were unable
    to repay their loans or were forced to buy crops at much higher prices than the prices at which
    they sold them to full their contractual obligations (Brugnach et al., 2009).
    One important aspect of managing uncertainty is the role of institutions. Institutions provide
    the rules of the game and can provide incentives and disincentives for how well society can
    expect to adapt to uncertainty (North, 1990). In response to increasing water supply and
    demand challenges, water-related institutions are undergoing far-reaching changes worldwide.
    As well as the redenition of roles and responsibilities, institutional arrangements and
    frameworks have provided direction on what is needed in terms of building and strengthening
    human, technological, information, knowledge and delivery capacities.
    Uncertainty can be understood as a range of reasonably expectable future conditions that
    need to be taken into account for decision-making at all levels, from the individual farmer to
    international water and environmental negotiations (Brugnach et al., 2009). For example, the
    uncertainty in assessing the probability of a once-in-fty-years ood needs to be ofset by
    appropriate sensitivity analysis and the design of an adequate safety margin. The size of the
    margin depends on the available nancial resources to invest in management and mitigation
    measures as well as on the risk propensity of the decision-maker and the population of
    concern. Despite some countries facing similar risks, their capacity to deal with it can difer
    considerably. For example, the Netherlands and Bangladesh both face recurrent ood risks,
    but the Netherlands is in a stronger economic position and can aford to invest heavily in
    infrastructure development and human capacity to reduce uncertainties in water management.
    The purpose of this chapter is to illustrate the growing need to strengthen water-related
    institutions, particularly with increasing water supply and demand uncertainties due to
    growing pressures such as climate change, economic growth and population growth. The
    chapter discusses what institutions are in relation to sustainable water development, and
    why they matter. It looks at some current challenges in water institutional reform. Finally,
    institutional responses and adaptive capacities to growing uncertainties are discussed and
    examples of attributes required for efective institutional change and implementation are
    provided.
    WWDR4 569 WATERANDINSTITUTIONALCHANGE
    25.1Institutions:Formandfunction
    25.1.1Deninginstitutions
    AbroaddenitionofinstitutionsprovidedbyOstrom
    (2005)istheprescriptionthathumansusetoor-
    ganizeallformsofrepetitiveandstructuredinterac-
    tionsincludingthosewithinfamilies,neighbourhoods,
    markets,rms,sportsleagues,religiousassociations,
    privateassociations,andgovernmentsatallscales.
    Individualsandgroupsinteractingwithinrule-struc-
    turedsituationsfacechoicesregardingtheactions
    andstrategiestheytake,leadingtoconsequencesfor
    themselvesandforothers.Importantly,thesesystems
    areconstructedbyhumansandareacomplexmixof
    norms,conventions,rulesandbehaviouralcharacteris-
    tics(North,2000);thatis,therulesofthegamewith
    organizationsastheplayersofthegame.Institutions
    involverulesthatdenerolesandproceduresforpeo-
    ple;haveadegreeofpermanencyandarerelatively
    stable;determinewhatisappropriate,legitimateand
    proper;andarecognitiveandnormativestructuresde-
    ningperceptions,interpretationsandsanctions.
    Whileformalandinformalwaterinstitutionsarepart
    ofoverallinstitutionalarchitecture,theyafectsocial,
    economicandpoliticallifeindiferentwaysandadis-
    tinctionismadebetweenthem.
    1
    Formalinstitutionsare
    generallycreatedbygovernmentpolicy,laws,rulesand
    regulations,andtheyhavetheresourcesandauthority
    tocoordinatelargenumbersofusersandareas.They
    areinvolvedintheprocessesofextracting,distributing
    andusingwater.Suchinstitutionsareunderthepurview
    andresponsibilityofthepoliticalregime(e.g.parlia-
    ment,government,courts,districtsandmunicipalities)
    andagenciesaresetinplacetoperformfunctionssuch
    aswaterresourcesmanagement,distributionofwater
    services,regulatorymonitoringandwaterqualitypro-
    tection.Non-governmentalorganizations(NGOs)such
    aswateruserassociationsandprivatewaterservice
    providerscanbepartoftheformalinstitutionalset-up
    inadditiontohavingwatch-dogfunctions.
    Informalinstitutionsarepartoftraditionalandcon-
    temporarysocialrulesappliedtowateruseandal-
    location.Theplayers-of-thegame,thatis,thosewho
    denetherulesofthegame,canbecommunity-
    basedorganizations,thelocalprivatesector,religious
    associationsandsoforth.Informalwater-relatedinsti-
    tutionsareusuallyequatedwithnormsandtraditions
    ofhowtoallocate,distributeandusewaterresources.
    Butinformalwaterrightssystemsarenotjustcustom-
    aryorarchaiconthecontrary,theycancomprise
    adynamicmixtureofprinciplesandorganizational
    formsofdiferentorigins(Boelens,2008).Theycan
    combinelocal,nationalandglobalrulesandtheyof-
    tenmixindigenous,colonialandcontemporaryrights.
    Importantsourcesoflocalrightssystemstendtobe
    statelaws,religiouslaws(formalorindigenous),an-
    cestrallaws,marketlaws,andtherightsframeworks
    generatedorimposedbywaterprojectinterventions,
    eachofwhichoftensetsitsownregulations.Therefore,
    localwaterrightsexistunderlegalpluralism,where
    rulesandprinciplesofdiferentoriginandlegitimiza-
    tionco-existandinteractinthesamewaterterritory.
    Fromtheperspectiveoflocalwaterusersinmany
    partsoftheworld,legitimatewaterrightsandauthor-
    ityarenotonlythoselaiddowninlegislation(Boelens,
    2008).Oneexampleofsuchawaterrightssystemis
    Aaj,prevalentinmanyMiddleEasterncountries.Aaj
    aretraditionalandwell-recognized(sometimesbyleg-
    islation)systemsofwaterallocationanddistribution.
    OvertheyearsAajhavesettraditionalpracticesfor
    inter-temporalwaterresourcesallocationandestab-
    lisheduserrightsonanownershiporarentbasis.
    Informalinstitutionsalsoincludeclientelismandcor-
    ruption.Suchdiscretionarypracticescandistortle-
    gitimateinstitutionsandresultinunpredictableand
    inefectivedecision-makingprocessesandoutcomes
    inallocationofwaterresourcesandservicesbetween
    sectorsandgroups(seeforexampleStlgren,2006
    andPlummer,2007).IntheCentralAsianFormer
    SovietUnioncountriesTajikistan,Kyrgyzstanand
    Uzbekistan,forexample,localactorscombinenewly
    establishedrulesoflocalwatermanagement(water
    userassociations)withinformalinstitutionsthatoften
    originatefrominstitutionalizedSovietandpre-Soviet
    patternsofbehaviour(Sehring,2009;Schlterand
    Herrfahrdt-Phle,2011).Thismixingofdiferentinsti-
    tutionallogicschangestheirmeaningandcansig-
    nicantlylimitproperimplementationofthereforms.
    Becauseinformalinstitutionscansupport,disruptand
    replaceformalinstitutions,itisimportantthatinfor-
    malinstitutionsareincorporatedintoanalysesofrisks
    anduncertaintiesinthecontextofinstitutionalde-
    sign(orchange)andimplementation.Forexample,in
    Paraguay,informalprivatewatersupplysystemswere
    recognizedandagreementsweredevelopedbetween
    localgovernmententitiesandsmall-scaleprivatewater
    vendors.Theoutcomewaseasiercontrolandmoni-
    toringofpricingandqualityofservice(Phumpiuand
    Gustafsson,2009).
    CHAPTER25 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 570
    25.1.2Institutionsmatter
    Currentinstitutionalsystemsandhowtheyfunction
    imposeconsiderableconstraintsfordoingbusiness,
    accordingtoasurveybyKaufmann(2005).Figure25.1
    illustratesbusinessconstraintsandtheimportanceof
    well-functioninginstitutionsforefectiveregulation,
    corruptioncontrolandsoforth.Conventionalwisdom
    holdsthatinsufcientinfrastructureconstitutesthe
    majormarketaccessconstraint.Itisthereforestrik-
    ingthatinstitutionalandgovernanceissues,suchas
    performanceofbureaucracyandcorruptioncontrol,
    rankhigherthaninfrastructureinregionssuchassub-
    SaharanAfrica,SouthAsia,LatinAmerica,andtransi-
    tioneconomiesinthesurvey.
    2
    Interestingly,theresults
    showtheimportanceofcombiningso-calledsoftand
    hardmeasurestoimprovedwaterdevelopmentand
    thatinstitutional(soft)measuresshouldhaveahigher
    prioritythantheytypicallyhavehad.
    Institutionsarealsoshapedbylargersocial,politicaland
    economiccontexts,andinevitablycountriesshowgreat
    variationininstitutionaldesign.Forexample,inmany
    countriesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)
    regionandinChina,waterinstitutionsarecharacterized
    bystronggovernmentsteering,top-downmanagement
    andcontrol.Incontrast,manyothercountriesaround
    theworldhavemovedtowardsinstitutionswithincreas-
    ingpowerdifusionacrossgovernment,civilsociety
    andmarkets,andwithastrengtheningofinstitutional
    processfeaturessuchastransparency,multi-stakeholder
    participationandaccountability.
    Theefectiveperformanceofinstitutionalfunctionscan
    reducenatural,technicalandsocialuncertainties.For
    example,iftensionsandconictsoversharedwater
    aresuccessfullynegotiatedwithinaparticularinstitu-
    tionalframework,uncertaintiesinstakeholderbehav-
    iourwillbereducedandthisinturnwillpromotemore
    predictableoutcomesinwaterallocationanduse.In
    performingitsfunctionsitisimportantforanyinstitu-
    tiontodothefollowing.
    Dene roles, rights and responsibilities of stakeholders
    at all levels
    Institutionalarrangementsdenewhocontrolsare-
    sourceandhowitisused.Inthissense,institutions
    FIGURE 25.1
    Keyconstraintstodoingbusinessinseveralgeographicandeconomicregions
    Note: The question posed to the rm was Select among the above 14 constraints the ve most problematic factors for doing business in your
    country.
    Source: Kaufmann (2005, g. 2, p. 85).
    Infrastructure Bureaucracy Corruption Taxregulations
    0
    10
    20
    30
    40
    50
    60
    EastAsia
    developing
    Sub-Saharan
    Africa
    Transition Latin
    America
    Firmsreportingconstraintamongtopthree(%)
    OECD EastAsia
    NICs
    South
    Asia
    WWDR4 571 WATERANDINSTITUTIONALCHANGE
    arevitalinestablishingtheworkingrulesofrightsand
    duties,andincharacterizingtherelationshipoftwo
    ormoreuserstooneanotherandtoaspecicnatural
    resource.Forexample,propertyrightscandetermine
    rightsandrestrictionstoaresource.Theefciencyand
    productivityofwaterusecanalsodeterminerights.In
    Kenya,watersectorreformshaveclearlydelineated
    institutionalarrangements,highlightingtherolesandre-
    sponsibilitiesofsubsectorsatboththeservicedelivery
    levelandtheriverbasinmanagementlevel.Oneout-
    comeofthesereformsisthefacilitationofinstitutional
    set-upssuchasthesector-wideapproachtoplanning
    (SWAP),whichprovidesforthedeliveryofinstitutional
    mechanismssuchaspartnershipprinciples,codesof
    conductandinvestmentplansaswellascoordination,
    monitoringanddecision-makingmechanismsallof
    whicharegearedtowardsenhancingservicedelivery
    andaccountabilityforthesector.SomeotherKenyan
    reformfeaturesincludetheseparationofthemanage-
    mentofwaterresourcesfromtheprovisionofwater
    services;theseparationofpolicy-makingfromday-to-
    dayadministrationandregulation;thedecentralization
    offunctionstolowerlevelgovernmentagencies;andin-
    creasedinvolvementofnon-governmententitiesinthe
    managementofwaterresourcesandintheprovision
    ofwaterservices.Kenyahasmadeprogressinitswater
    reformbuthasfacedseriouschallengesinfundingand
    capacityandthushasnotyetbeenabletoimplement
    allintroducedinstitutionalreforms(MWI,2005,2009).
    Determine restrictions on use and mechanisms for
    conict mediation
    Institutionssetindividualandcollectiverestrictionson
    waterusewhocanusewhichwater,howmuchofit,
    when,andforwhatpurpose.Increasingthewatersup-
    plydemandgapintensiescompetitionandconict
    betweenwaterusers,regionsandeconomicsectors
    suchasituationcandemonstratelimitationsinexist-
    ingresourceallocationandmanagementinstitutions,
    butimportantly,theseinstitutionscandevelopmecha-
    nismstodealwithsuchconictinginterests.Intrans-
    boundaryrivercontexts,water-relatedtensionsmay
    havebeenhistoricallycontainedbutgivencurrentwa-
    terscarcitytrendscausedbybothenvironmentaland
    developmentalchanges,thesetensionscouldescalate.
    Awaterscarcitywaterconictdynamicoftenconsti-
    tutesajusticationforinstitutionalwaterreformand
    forthedevelopmentofclearlydenedregulatoryand
    allocationmechanisms.Thereformsofwaterinstitu-
    tionsandthelegalinstrumentsgoverningtransbound-
    arywaterare,however,complexandoftentakealong
    timetodebateandintroduce;tensionscouldacceler-
    ateinthemeantime.However,insomeinstanceswa-
    tertensionshaveacceleratedinstitutionalchange.In
    Australia,long-standingwaterusetensionsbetween
    environmentalistsandfarmersintheMurrayDarling
    BasinprovidebackdroptotheLandcaremovement
    andtodevelopingmulti-stakeholderforaformanag-
    ingwaterinitsbasincontext.Thecompetingwater
    demandsofstateshaveservedasthebasisforinstitu-
    tionaldevelopmentoftheMurray-DarlingBasinwater
    managementframework.Conictingvisionsofcatch-
    mentmanagement,suchasthedegreeofstakeholder
    participation,haveshapedinstitutionalapproachesin
    thestateofNewSouthWales.Conictavoidancecan
    itselfbeadriverofinnovationintheareaofwatergov-
    ernance.InSouth-EastAsia,thespectreofresource-
    basedconictbetweenthecountriessharingthe
    MekongRiverhasbeenastrongdriverforcoopera-
    tionthroughtheMekongRiverCommission(MRC)and
    animportantjusticationofofcialassistancetothe
    Commission(BoesenandMunkRanvborg,2004).
    Reduce transaction costs and stimulate investment
    Thedevelopmentofinstitutionsandtheirefective
    enforcementcontributesto,amongotherthings,
    loweringthetransactioncostsoforganizationsand
    investors.Putsimply,atransactioncostisacostin-
    curredinmakinganeconomicexchange;thatis,the
    costofparticipatinginamarket,suchasinfee-based
    systemsofprovisionofwaterandwater-relatedser-
    vices.Costsinvolvedcanincludethesearchforinfor-
    mation,bargainingforanddecidingonproperfees,
    andpolicingandenforcement.Fromaneconomic
    perspective,efectiveinstitutionalchangetakesplace
    whentransactioncostsarelessthanthecorrespond-
    ingopportunitycosts.Transactioncostanalysisis
    seenbymanyasthecoreofinstitutionaleconomics
    analysisbutisseldomusedindevelopingnewwater
    institutions.InKenya,forexample,somestakehold-
    ersseeinstitutionalchangessuchastheintroduction
    ofSWAPaspotentiallyincreasingthebureaucracy
    andlevelofcomplexityoftheinstitutionandremov-
    ingdecision-makingfurtherfromthegrassrootslevel.
    Thereissomeconcernthattransactioncostscould
    risewithSWAPandsomeNGOsfearthatSWAP
    couldresultinreducedfundingforthem.Thisinsti-
    tutionalreformisthusseenbysomestakeholdersas
    requiringhighlevelsoftransparencyandhighcapac-
    ityofgovernmentmonitoringsystems,whichwould
    increasetheprobabilityoffailureastheseareweak
    pointsinthesector.
    CHAPTER25 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 572
    25.2Institutionalresponsestouncertainty
    Conventionalwaterplanningtendstoberigidand
    challengesremainregardinghowtodevelopadaptive
    governanceframeworksandinstitutionswithincreas-
    inglyuncertainandchangingwaterfutures.There
    arecallsformoreattentiontobepaidtoresilientand
    adaptiveinstitutionsandapproaches(GWP,2009).
    TheWorld Water Development Report2(WWAP,
    2006)notesthatinsufcientaccesstowaterresources
    andservicesisnotnecessarilydrivenbywatershort-
    agesbutbytheinstitutionalresistancetochangethat
    emanatesfromlackofappropriateinstitutionsto
    manageandsecureresourcesfordevelopinghuman
    capacity,managementapproaches,andprovisionof
    technicalandphysicalinfrastructure.
    Withoutinstitutionscapableofaccommodatingto
    uncertaintyandshiftingwatersuppliestowherethey
    areneededmost,climatechangeandotherdriverswill
    imposesignicantimpactsonwaterusersandwater-
    dependentcommunities.Yetmuchworkremainsto
    efectivelyintegrateclimate-relatedpolicieswithwa-
    terpolicies.Thisisproblematicbecausemanyofthe
    measurestoadapttoclimatechangewillhavetobe
    water-related(Bjrklundetal.,2009).
    Institutionalchangeorpolicyreformwillbelessefec-
    tiveunlessitiscoupledwithenforcementoflegislation
    toguaranteeintegrityandaccountabilityindecision-
    makingatalllevels.Mismanagement,corruption,
    bureaucraticinertiaandredtapismallafectwater
    managementindetrimentalways.Theyincreasetrans-
    actioncosts,discourageinvestmentsandcanprovide
    strongdisincentivesforwaterreformimplementation
    andamplifyrisksanduncertaintiesforusers.Atthe
    coretheyaresymptomsofgovernancecrisis.Recent
    studiesconrmthatforexamplepettycorruptionat
    theproviderconsumerinterfaceisonekeyareaof
    riskthatwaterprojectsandprogrammesmustcon-
    sider(ButterworthanddelaHarpe,2009).Thiscalls
    for,amongotherthings,moreefectiveenforcement
    ofregulatoryinstitutionstomonitorperformanceand
    expendituresofserviceproviders.
    Inthissection,someexamplesofresponsetouncer-
    taintyindecision-makingarehighlightedandanalysed
    toprovidesnapshotsofadaptivecapacityofinsti-
    tutions;thatis,towhatextentaretheyexibleand
    robusttochangeasthesocial,politicalandecologi-
    calenvironmentchanges.Adaptivecapacityhasbeen
    denedasthepotentialorcapabilityofasystemto
    adjust,viachangesinitscharacteristicsorbehaviours,
    soastocopebetterwithexistingandfuturestresses.
    Morespecically,adaptivecapacityreferstotheabil-
    ityofasocio-ecologicalsystemtocopewithnovelty
    withoutlosingoptionsforthefuture(Folkeetal.,2002)
    andinawaythatreectslearning,exibilitytoexperi-
    mentandadoptnovelsolutions,anddevelopmentof
    generalizedresponsestobroadclassesofchallenges
    (Walkeretal.,2002).Insomecasesnewinstitutions
    mightneedtobecreatedtodealwithspecicwater
    challenges,asforexampleintherecentdevelopment
    ofwaterqualitytradingfordifusepollutionandeu-
    trophicationmanagement(vanBochove,etal.,2011;
    Joyceetal.,2011).
    Box25.1providesadetaileddiscussionofinstitutional
    changeandadaptationinthecontextofwatersupply
    andsanitationservices.
    25.2.1Evolvinginstitutions
    Duringthepastdecadesmanydevelopingcountrieshave
    beenfacingincreasingchallengesofwaterpollutionsuch
    asthosecommoninWesternEuropeandNorthAmerica.
    Thishasledtotheestablishmentofenvironmentminis-
    tries,butmuchworkremainstofullydevelopandimple-
    mentpollutionmonitoring,legislationandregulation.It
    alsoseemslikelythatpoliticallyandnanciallyweakmin-
    istrieswillfaceincreasingtensionswithwateragencies
    responsibleforwaterresourcesdevelopmentprojects.
    Howgovernmentswillresolvethesedisputesisachal-
    lenge;thereseemstobeverylimitedinstitutionsthatcan
    mediatewater-relateddisputesbetweenurban,ruraland
    environmentalinterests.
    Someinterestingexamplesofhowsuchdisputes
    canbeinstitutionallymanagedarefoundinso-
    calledwatershedmarkets.Putsimply,watershed
    servicesareprovidedbyupstreamwaterusersto
    downstreambeneciariesmakingsomekindofpay-
    mentorothercompensationstothoseupstream.
    The1998NewYorkCitywatershedagreementiswell
    known(WWAP,2009):inresponsetoconictwith
    upstreamwaterusersovernewlanduserestric-
    tionsandtoprotectNewYorkCityswatersupply,a
    modelwasnegotiatedbetweenfarmersandtheCity
    thatwasbuiltonnancialcompensationtofarm-
    ersandguaranteesthattheCitycouldacquireland
    onlyfromwillingfarmersatfairmarketprice.Similar
    agreementsareemerginginotherplacesintheUSA;
    forexample,theCuyahogaRiverbasininOhioiden-
    tiestradingsystemsforstream,wetlandand
    WWDR4 573 WATERANDINSTITUTIONALCHANGE
    Urbanwatersupplyserviceshavetraditionallybeenprovidedbystate-ownedandmanagedwaterutilities.Acommontrait
    inmuchreformaroundtheworldinthepastdecadeshasbeenthatgovernmentshaveattemptedtoturnstate-ownedwater
    utilitiesintoefectiveandviableorganizationswithmixedsuccess.TheWorldBanklookedat11casestudies(fromEurope,
    Africa,LatinandNorthAmerica,andAsia)ofutilitiesthatwerewellfunctioningandaskedthequestion:Whyhavesome
    publicutilitiesbecomemoreefcientserviceproviderswhileothershavenotbeenabletobreaktheviciouscycleoflowper-
    formanceandlowcostrecovery?Itpresentsaframeworkofattributesofwell-functioningutilitiesanddescribeshowthese
    utilitieshaveintroducedkeyinstitutionalmeasures.
    Thereportconcludesthatwaterutilitiesareapartoftheoverallinstitutionallandscapewithitstrendsofchange,whichof-
    fersopportunities.Themajortransitionofmostutilitiesinthepastdecadeshasnotbeenfrompublictoprivateoperation
    butfromcentralizedtodecentralizedpublicprovision.Fiscalsqueezehashitutilitieshard:aspublicbudgetsdecreasedin
    the1990s,infrastructureinvestmentsdroppeddisproportionallybecausegovernmentshavefewdiscretionaryspendingcat-
    egories.Underbudgetarypressure,manypublicinstitutionshaveadoptednewmanagementtools,oftenborrowedfromthe
    privatesector,tocomplementmoretraditionalbureaucratictools.Manycountrieshavedemocratized,andanemergingcivil
    societyincludingaconsumermovementhasputpressureonutilitiestodeliverbetterservices.
    Institutionalattributes
    Thereisnoperfectmodelforpublicutilitiesthatguaranteesgoodperformance.Butwell-functioningutilitiessharethese
    attributes:
    AutonomybeingindependenttomanageprofessionallywithoutarbitraryinterferencebyothersHoweverautonomyre-
    quirestransparentprocessessothatregulators,consumersandotherscanexerciseaccountabilityandconsumerorienta-
    tionmoreeasily.
    Accountabilitybeinganswerabletootherpartiesforpolicydecisionsfortheuseofresourcesandforperformance
    Accountabilityextendstomanydiferentgroups,suchasregulatorsandthepublic(consumers).
    Consumerorientationreportingonperformanceandlisteningtoclientsandworkingtobettermeettheirneeds
    Theseattributesapplytotherelationshipbetweentheutilityandtheenvironmentinwhichitoperatesaswellastotheinter-
    nalfunctioningoftheutility.
    Therearestillnoticeableobstaclestomanyutilitiesperformingindependently.Politicianscanseeutilitiesasacashcowif,for
    example,costrecoveryratesincrease.Manytimesstafisnotheldtoaccountandpracticesofcorruptionandmismanagement
    arepoorlyaddressed.Manysectorreformsarecurrentlyunderway,butmeaningfulconsumerparticipationisoftenoverlooked.
    Inthisrespect,thelaunchofseparateregulatorybodieshashelpedtosomeextent;forinstance,OfwatanditsWaterVoice
    CommitteesintheUnitedKingdom(UK);theNationalWaterSupplyandSanitationCouncil(NWASCO)andtheWaterWatch
    GroupinZambia;andtheConsumerConsultativeCounciltobesetupbythewaterandpowerregulatorybodyinTanzania.
    Institutionalmeasures
    Thetoolstoachievetheaboveattributescanvaryfromcasetocase,butcertainpatternsofgovernancepracticesareemerg-
    ingasbeingcritical.Institutionalmeasurestomakepublicutilitiesmoreefectiveincludecorporatization,performanceagree-
    ments,transparencyandconsumeraccountabilitytools,andcapacity-building.
    Source: Baietti et al. (2006).
    BOX 25.1
    Institutionalchangeinwatersupplyandsanitationservices
    habitatmitigationbanksaswellasforwaterquality
    andcarbon.Thenextstepwillbetoquantifywater-
    shedservicestoestablishwhoprovidesparticular
    servicesandforwhatpayment.Anenablingfeaturefor
    theCuyahogaRiverbasinsystemaswellasinmany
    otherpartsofthecountryistheexistenceofcon-
    servancydistricts.Thesedistrictsareorganizedalong
    watershedbordersandhavetheauthoritytotaxand
    controllanduse(Flows,2006).
    25.2.2Communication,coordinationandintegration
    amonginstitutionsofallscales
    Institutionsofallscales,localtoglobal,needto
    respondtouncertainties.Foranindividualfarm,
    droughtsandoodsaredevastatingeventsthat
    threatenimmediateincomeandfuturelivelihood.
    Thereareincreasingefortstomanageriskthroughin-
    suranceandothernancialrisktransferinstrumentsfor
    smallholderrainfedagricultureindevelopingcountries.
    CHAPTER25 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 574
    Basinginsurancepayoutsonanobjectivelymeas-
    uredindex(e.g.rainfallamount,modelledwaterstress,
    area-averagedproduction)thatiscorrelatedtolossin-
    steadofactuallossesovercomesproblemswithmoral
    hazard(theincentiveforfarmerstoletcropsfail),ad-
    verseselection(whenlessskilledfarmerspreferentially
    purchaseinsurance)andhightransactioncoststhat
    havegenerallymadetraditionalinsuranceunviablefor
    smallholderfarmersindevelopingcountries(Brown
    andHansen,2008).AsdiscussedinBox25.2,some
    farmersinKenyaarenowusingnancialrisktransfer
    tolowercropyieldrisksrelatedtorainfallvariability.
    AnotherexampleistheWorldBanksCommodityRisk
    ManagementGroupthatworkswithpartnersinseveral
    AfricanandLatinAmericancountriestoimplement
    bundledindex-basedinsurance,creditandproduc-
    tionpackagesthatcanovercomebarrierstoadoption
    ofmoreprotable,intensiedproductiontechnology
    bytargetingtheriskaversionoflenders(Brownand
    Hansen,2008).
    Localcustomaryinstitutionscantakeaholisticap-
    proachtoreduceuncertaintiesbyaccessingmul-
    tiplewatersourcesformultiplepurposes(Sullivan
    etal.,2008).Fivecasestudiesundertakenby
    theInternationalCentreforIntegratedMountain
    Development(ICIMOD)lookatsituationswherepeo-
    plearerespondingtotoomuchwater(oods,wa-
    terlogging)ortoolittlewater(drought,waterstress)
    acrossthegreaterHimalayanregion:thedrymoun-
    tainvalleysofChitralinPakistan;themiddlehillsin
    Nepal;theKoshibasinoodplainsinBihar,India;the
    BrahmaputraoodplainsinAssam,India;andthehill
    areasofYunnan,China.Someofthekeyadaptation
    strategieswerelivelihooddiversicationandmaking
    useofandstrengtheninglocalinstitutionsandsocial
    networks.Culturalnormsandrulesafectpeoples
    adaptivebehaviourbutimportantlythesearedynamic
    andcanshiftovertimeinresponsetoneeds.Itwas
    acknowledgedthatnationalinstitutionsandpolicies
    stronglyafectpeoplesabilitytoadaptatthelocal
    level,butinstitutionsandpoliciesatthenationallevel
    arerarelyinformedbyadaptationconcernsandpriori-
    ties(ICIMOD,2009).
    Movinghigherupthescale,institutionsarerequired
    toregulateupstreamanddownstreamwateruseand
    allocationatthewatershedorriverbasinlevel.River
    basinmanagementisnotanewidea;itwasapplied,
    Manyfarmersareheldbackfrominvestingtoincreasetheiryieldsduetomanyfactors,suchasunsecurelandtenureand
    difcultiesinaccessingtraditionalcreditmarkets.Anincreasinglyimportantfactoristherisksanduncertaintiesassociated
    withoodinganddrought.Afteraone-yeardroughtafarmerrunstheriskofnotbeingabletorepayaninvestmentloanand
    thereforeoflosinghisorherfarm.Onesolutionistodevelopinsuranceschemesthatusenewinformationandcommunica-
    tiontechnologiestoprotectfarmersinvestmentsfromweatheructuations.
    Forexample,amicro-insuranceschemeisemerginginKenyathatissupportedbyanationalinsurancecompany,amobile
    phonenetworkoperatorandanagribusiness.Farmerspayanextra5%toinsureabagofseed,fertilizerorherbicideagainst
    cropfailure.Theagribusinessinvolvedhopestobenetfromhighersalesofitsproductsandmatchesthefarmersinvest-
    menttomeetthefull10%costoftheinsurancepremium.Administrationcostsarekepttoaminimumandthesystemissup-
    posedtobeself-nancing.Localagentsregisterapolicywiththeinsurancecompanybyusingacameraphonetoscanabar
    codeoneachbagsold.Atextmessageisthensenttothefarmersmobilephonethatconrmstheinsurancepolicy.Farmers
    areregisteredatthenearest(solar-powered)weatherstation,whichtransmitsdataoverthemobilephonenetwork.Ifweath-
    erconditionsworsen,apanelofexpertsusesanindexsystemtodecideifcropswillnolongerbeviable.Iftheywillnotbe,at
    thispointpayoutsaremadedirectlytofarmersmobilephonesusingtheM-PESAmobile-moneyservice.Thesystemcomes
    withminimaltransactioncostsbecauseithaseliminatedeldsurveys,mostpaperworkandthemiddleman.
    Duringthetrial,oneareawashitwithseveredrought.Thistriggeredcompensationpaymentsof80%offarmersinvest-
    ments.Withoutthisinsurance,farmerswouldhavehadseverenancialdifcultiestoensureseeds,fertilizersandsoforthfor
    thenextcroppingseason.Afterasuccessfultrialof200farmers,theinitiativeisnowtargeting5,000farmersinwesternand
    centralKenya.
    Source: The Economist (2010).
    BOX 25.2
    Institutionaladaptationatthelocalscale:Respondingtoclimateuncertaintiesthroughfarmermicro-insurance
    schemes
    WWDR4 575 WATERANDINSTITUTIONALCHANGE
    Movingontoregionalscales,theEuropeanUnion(EU)
    hasdevelopedamultilateralCommonImplementation
    Strategytosupporttheimplementation(andlimitthe
    risksanddisputesrelatedtoimplementation)ofthe
    WaterFrameworkDirective(seeBox25.3).Water-
    relatedresponsesshouldbeintegrativeandsupportive
    ofeachotherinaparticularcountryorriverbasin.The
    EUsCommonImplementationStrategyisanexample
    ofthesupranationalinstitutionallevelguidingcountry
    processes.Theintegratedwaterresourcesmanage-
    mentconceptprovidesguidanceonhorizontaland
    verticalcoordinationandintegrationofdecision-mak-
    ing.Meaningfulcommunication,builtonanopenow
    ofrelevantdataandinformation,iscriticalforunlock-
    ingthepotentialofintegrativeapproaches.
    25.3Implementationofacceptableand
    workableinstitutions
    Intheearliersectionsofthischapter,exampleswere
    providedofinstitutionaldevelopmentinrelationto
    waterresourcesaccess,useandallocationaswellas
    toperformanceanddistributionofwaterservices.
    Butwhydosomeinstitutionsworkbetterthanoth-
    ers?Thedevelopmentofinstitutionsshouldbeseen
    aspath-dependent.Forexample,inacontextwhere
    marketsandregulatoryfunctionsarefacedwithse-
    vereconstraints,itisnotlikelythatwaterprivatization
    willbeefective;inacontextwherecommunitieshave
    limitedresourcesandcapacities,itisnotlikelythat
    delegationofwatermanagementwillworkefectively.
    Institutionalreformwillhaveagreaterchanceofsuc-
    cessifithaseconomicrationality;politicalwillingness
    andsensitivity;andpaysattentiontosocialfactorsand
    stakeholders.
    RobertsonandNielsen-Pincus(2009)suggestcriteria
    thatincreasethechancesofsuccessofinstitutionalre-
    form:leadershipandpoliticalwill;socialcapitalandin-
    ter-personaltrustamongparticipants;committedand
    cooperativeparticipants;adequateandsustainable
    nancing;participationandinclusiveness;adequate
    time;well-denedprocessrules;efectiveenforcement
    mechanisms;efectivecommunication;adequatesci-
    enticandtechnicalinformation;adequatemonitoring;
    lowormediumlevelsofconict;limited(manageable)
    temporalandgeographicalscopeofactivities;training
    incollaborativeskills;andadequatehumancapacities.
    Importantly,blueprintscannotbeapplied:whatworks
    inonecontextmaynotworkinanother.Thefactorsfor
    successfuldelegationofwatergovernanceinCanada
    capturesomeofthepolitical,economicandsocial
    forexample,inNigerinthe1970s.Thedroughtof
    theSahelinthe1970sspurredthecreationofriver
    basindevelopmentauthorities(RBDAs),whichsoon
    increasedtheirresponsibilitiestoencompasswater
    managementforthecountryasawhole.Theirpur-
    poseinadditiontogeneralwaterresourcesmanage-
    mentwastoassuresystematicuseofgroundwater
    andsurfacewater,developwaterformultiplepur-
    poses,supplyirrigationwater,controloodsand
    controlerosion.Insomecountries,suchasSpain
    andPortugal,riverbasinorganizationshavebeen
    aroundformorethan100years(DelliPriscoli,2008).
    ArecentCap-Netstudyofriverbasinorganizations
    pointstosomepositiveaspectsofcoordination
    amonggovernmentagenciesandwaterstakehold-
    ers.Italsoacknowledges,however,manycaseswhere
    riverbasinorganizationshavealongwaytogoto
    managewaterinequitable,sustainableandefcient
    manner(Cap-Net,2008).
    ACommonImplementationStrategy(CIS)wasdeveloped
    inMay2001attheEuropeanleveltosupportEuropean
    UnionMemberStatesinaddressingthescientic,techni-
    calandpracticalchallengesofimplementationoftheEU
    WaterFrameworkDirective.Mostofthechallengesand
    difcultiesthatariseduringimplementationwillinevitably
    becommontoallMemberStates,andindeedmanyofthe
    Europeanriverbasinsaresharedcrossingadministrative
    andterritorialborderssoacommonunderstandingand
    approachiscrucialtosuccessfulandefectiveimplemen-
    tationofthedirective.Acommonstrategycouldlimitthe
    risksoftheDirectivebeingpoorlyappliedanddisputes
    subsequenttothatscenario.
    ThefocusoftheCISistoclarifyanddevelop,whereap-
    propriate,technicalandscienticinformationtoassistin
    thepracticalimplementationoftheDirective.Suchdocu-
    mentshaveaninformalandnon-legallybindingcharacter
    andarebeplacedatthedisposalofMemberStatesona
    voluntarybasis.TheCISisanexampleofamultilateralin-
    stitutionthatistime-boundandsubject-specic,designed
    toaddressthechallengesfacedbyMemberStatesinaco-
    operativeandcoordinatedway;theyarenormallychaired
    byoneMemberStateandfundingisgenerallypooledby
    theMemberStateswhomanagetheworkinggroups.
    Source: Common Implementation Strategy for the Water
    Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) 2001.
    BOX 25.3
    Time-boundmultilateralinstitutions:AnEU
    commonwaterimplementationstrategy
    CHAPTER25 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 576
    mechanismsessentialforefectiveinstitutionalchange
    (Box25.4).
    25.3.1Loweringtransactioncostsandavoiding
    free-riders
    Waterresourceinstitutionsdeterminewhocanuse
    whichwater,howmuchofit,when,andforwhat
    purposeaswellassetmanagementresponsibilities,
    feesandfeecollectionprocessesandsoforth.
    Community-basedwatersupplyprojectsinrural
    areashavefrequentlyproveduntenable,withmany
    communitiesbeingunabletoraisesufcientfundsto
    meetoperationandmaintenancecostsofcommon
    waterresources.Typicalcostsofcommunitywater
    projectsincludepaymentofelectricitybillsorfor
    dieseltooperatepumps;purchasesofspareparts
    andmaintenance;stationeryforbookkeeping;staf
    transportationcosts;telephonebills;andpayment
    orcompensationforbookkeepersandcommittee
    members.Tokeepthesystemoperational,the
    membersneedtopaytheirfees.
    Free-ridingwhenlegitimatewateruserstakemore
    thantheirallocatedshareofwatercanimposeup-
    streamanddownstreamdisputesofwaterallocation.
    Free-ridingalsooccurswhenwaterresourcesareex-
    tractedbyillegitimateusers;thatis,userswhoarenot
    partoftheinstitution.Insum,thefree-riderisawater
    userwhodoesnotsticktocommonlyagreedrules.If
    toomanyfree-ridersoperateinaninstitution,itwill
    collapsebecausethetransactioncostsformonitoring
    andpolicingwateruserswillbesohightheyoutweigh
    thebenets,particularlyinruralareaswherewater
    userscanbedispersedoverlargeareasandmaylack
    sharedcommunitygoalsoffairnessinwaterallocation
    andsharingofcosts.Inmanyplaces,socialsanction-
    ingservesasanefectivewaytominimizethenumber
    offree-riders.Socialnormscangeneratecostlypun-
    ishmentofcommunitymembersbreakingtherules
    free-ridersmayruntheriskofsocialexclusionordisre-
    spect.Otherwaystoovercomethefree-riderproblem
    arecommunitymobilization,socialintermediationand
    institutionbuilding(BreierandVisser,2006;Ostrom,
    2000).
    WatergovernancehasundergonedramaticchangesinCanadaoverthepastdecade,characterizedbythreekeytrends:
    1.Theintroductionofnewwatershed-baseddelegatedgovernancemanagementmodelsinanumberofprovinces.
    2.Legislativeandpolicyreformthathassethigherstandardsfordrinkingwatersupplyinanumberofjurisdictions.
    3.Greatercitizeninvolvementinenvironmentalpolicy-makingandenvironmentalmanagement.
    Thesetrendshaveemergedduetoseveralreasons:ashiftintheviewoftheroleandmandateofgovernments;newlegal
    requirements(particularlywithrespecttoFirstNations,andalsomandatedbyanewgenerationofenvironmentallaws);
    awarenessoftheexpertiseavailableoutsidegovernment,particularlyinthecontextofdecreasedgovernmentresources;new
    approachestocitizenparticipation;increasedemphasisonintegratedmanagementofenvironmentalissuesandwatershed-
    basedmanagement;andconcernovertheimplicationsofclimatechangeforbothwaterresourcesandsupply.
    InthecontextofoverallwaterreforminCanada,theapproachofdelegatedwatergovernanceisconsideredsuccessful
    throughthefollowingfactors:
    Lfectiveleadershipclearstructuringofprocessessustainablefnancingadequatehumanresourcesupportandtheability
    toimplementrecommendations.
    lnterpersonaltrusttransparencyandrespectfortheruleoflaw
    Committedparticipantsopenorclosedparticipationandanadequaterangeofparticipants
    Sufcientscientifcinformationnecessaryforsounddecisionmakingthisneedstobeaccessibletoparticipants
    Sufcientandsustainablefundingnecessarytosupportcollaborativebodies
    Hanageablescopeofactivitiesitisimportanttolimitscopeandsettargets
    Policyfeedbackaformalmechanismisneededtodealwithrecommendationsfromdelegatedwatergovernancebodies
    Whereastheshiftfromstateorcentralizedwatermanagementtocommunitymanagementandtheincreasedparticipation
    ofmarginalizedgroupshasinsomeinstancesprovidednewopportunitiesandbenets,suchashiftmightinsomecasesin-
    creasetheburdenoncommunityresourcesandonwomenslabourandtime.
    Source: Nowlan and Bakker (2007).
    BOX 25.4
    Watergovernancereform:SuccessfuldelegationofwatergovernanceinCanada
    WWDR4 577 WATERANDINSTITUTIONALCHANGE
    Free-ridersreceivebenetswithoutactuallycontrib-
    utinganything,thuscreatinganunfairbalanceinthe
    distributionofrevenuesorotherresources.Thesocial,
    politicalandeconomicdilemmasoffree-ridingoccur
    notonlyinruralwatersupplybutinanyareaandatany
    scale.Takeforexampleurbandrinkingwatersupply
    aroundtheworld:someconsumersoftenincollusion
    withpublicofcialsavoidpayingfeesbymanipulat-
    ingwatermetresorbyothermeans.Ithasbeennoted
    thatdriversofchange,suchaswaterscarcity,macro-
    economicdevelopmentsandnaturalcalamities,interact
    toraisetheopportunitycostofinstitutionalchangeand
    reducethecorrespondingtransactioncost.Thiscreates
    aconduciveenvironmentforinstitutionalchange.
    25.3.2Movingfrominertiaorresistancetopoliticalwill
    UnitedNationsSecretary-GeneralBanKi-moonsmes-
    sageonWorldWaterDay,22March,in2008pointed
    tothelackofpoliticalwillasthebiggestprobleminin-
    stitutionalreform:progressishamperedbypopulation
    growth,widespreadpoverty,insufcientinvestments
    toaddresstheproblemandthebiggestculprit:alack
    ofpoliticalwill(BanKi-moon,2008).Institutionalwa-
    terreformneedstobermlyanchoredamongstake-
    holdersandtheirleadership.Ifinstitutionsarecon-
    sideredasunacceptableintheirset-upandproduce
    undesiredoutcomes,theywillnotreceivesupportand
    stakeholdersaremorelikelytokeepthestatusquoor
    evendeveloptheirowninformalrulesratherthanad-
    heretoexistingrules.
    Becausereformschangestatusquo,onecanexpect
    bothsupportforandoppositiontoinstitutionalre-
    formagendasbyafectedgroups.Insomecases,the
    implementingagencymaynothaveareformagenda
    thatcoincideswiththatofthegovernmentinitiat-
    ingthereform.Forexample,ananalysisofthepar-
    tiesinvolvedinaproposedwaterfeereformforthe
    capitalofHonduras,Tegucigalpa,revealedthatthe
    publicagencyinchargeofwatersupplywasama-
    joropponenttothereform.Supportforinstitutional
    reformwasdrivenbyexternalinternationaldevelop-
    mentagencies,butinthiscase,thesupportwasnot
    sufcientforreformtotakeplaceforthereformto
    goforwardithadtobesupportedbynationalpower
    centres.InPakistanforexample,somegovernment
    ministriesandagenciesopposedreformpartof
    whichwastotransferpowerandnancialresources
    fromtheirrigationministryanditsregionalofcesto
    areaboardsbecausetheyfeltitwouldafectthem
    negatively(WWAP,2006).
    Ithasalsobeenobservedthatbureaucraticbehav-
    iourcancausedisincentivesforefectiveinstitutional
    reformtodealwithnewchallenges.Forexample,in
    efortsfordecentralizingwaterdecision-makingand
    management,bureaucraticbehaviourcanleadtoa
    pre-occupationofroles,hierarchiesandprocedures
    thatprotecttheafecteddepartmentfromhavingto
    respondtoinstitutionalchange.Onanindividualbasis,
    stafmembersareconcernedaboutemploymentse-
    curityandstationlocation.Clearly,thecombinationof
    organizationalinertiaorresistancetochangecoupled
    withstafconcernsmakeschangehardunlesspressure
    and/orincentivesareappliedbyhigherpoliticaland
    administrativelevels(Holmes,2003).
    Theimportanceofpoliticalwillcanbeillustratedby
    waterreforminsomecountries.InCanada,efective
    leadershipisconsideredoneoftherequiredfactorsfor
    institutionalchangeindelegatingwatergovernance
    (Box25.4).InScotland,thetransitionfromoldto
    newregulatoryapproachesisnotwithouttensions
    andinconsistencies,particularlyatthelegaland
    operationallevels.WaterdisputesinScotlandare
    associatedwiththeredesignofnationaladministrative
    responsibilitiesandthere-establishmentofadevolved
    parliament.Thereisstillagapinunderstandingthe
    efectivepossibilitiesandtensionsassociatedwith
    thenewregulatoryregimebasedontheEUWater
    FrameworkDirective.Forexample,theincomefrom
    newwaterchargeswasexpectedtocover50%ofthe
    operationalcostsincurredbytheScottishEnvironment
    ProtectionAgency(SEPA),whiletheother50%was
    tocomefromthegovernmentintheformofgeneral
    taxation.Ithasbeenarguedthatdespiteadiscursive
    constructionandsustainabilityaswellasstakeholder
    participation,thenewinstitutionallandscapehasso
    farfailedtoimprovelong-termpatternsofwateruse
    andconservation.Whereasformalchangesinthe
    legislationcreatedapositivespaceforinstitutional
    reforms,theefectiveimprovementofwaterpolicyand
    catchmentmanagementhasbeencurtailedbypolitical
    inertiaandthehiddenbalanceofpower.Thefarming
    sectorinScotlandthroughtheNationalFarmersUnion
    (NFUS)statedthatnewchargesforregulatingfarms
    thatabstractwaterhavegeneratedalotofheatand
    debatewithSEPAandtheScottishExecutive(Loris,
    2009;NFUS,2006).
    25.3.3Buildingtrust,integrityandaccountability
    Severalstudiesoninstitutionsbringupinter-organ-
    izationaltrust,inter-personaltrustandnetworksas
    CHAPTER25 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 578
    importantforefectiveinstitutionaldevelopmentand
    implementation.Inthecaseoflocaladaptationtocli-
    matechangeinthegreaterHimalayanregion,social
    networkswereseenasimportanttoenhanceadap-
    tivecapacities.Similarly,inter-personaltrustwascriti-
    calforefectivedelegationofwatergovernancein
    Canada(Box25.4).Recentcasestudies(Ross,2009)
    suggestthattrustsocialtrustwithinacommunityor
    trustbetweencommunitiesandpublicauthoritiesis
    moreimportantthehighertherisksanduncertain-
    tiesinvolved.Onecasestudyarea,Toowoombain
    Queensland,Australia,wassetinahighperceivedrisk
    contextforaproposedwaterre-useschemeforpota-
    blewater.Perceptionsofriskhadaverystrongdirect
    efectonacceptanceofthescheme,andthetrust,risk
    andacceptancerelationshipwasstrongerthanitwas
    forothercasestudyareas.Moreover,therelationalvar-
    iablesofproceduralfairness,identicationwithones
    community,in-groupmembershipofthewaterauthor-
    ity,andsharedvalueswiththewaterauthoritywereall
    foundtoafecttrust,directlyorindirectly.Thecred-
    ibilityoftheauthoritymeasuredastechnicalcom-
    petenceandalackofvestedinterestswasfoundto
    haveasignicantimpactontrust.Insum,theresults
    highlighttheneedforwaterauthoritiesandpolicy-
    makerstobuildtrustamongstakeholdersthrough
    proceduralfairness,developingasenseofthewater
    authorityasamemberofthecommunity,anddem-
    onstratingtechnicalcompetenceandconcernforthe
    interestsofthepublic(Ross,2009).
    Aformidableprobleminmanywaterinstitutionsis
    corruption(TransparencyInternational,2008;WWAP,
    2009).Intoomanycasescorruptbehaviourhasbe-
    comethenormandironically,corruptioncanconsti-
    tuteaninstitutioninitsownright.Corruptionnotonly
    undercutsdevelopmentandraisesthestakesregard-
    ingrisksanduncertaintiesofwateravailabilityand
    allocation,italsounderminescriticalfoundationsof
    trust,theruleoflaw,fairness,andefciencyofwater
    institutions.Well-functioninginstitutionshavede-
    velopedsystemsofaccountability.Consideringthe
    frequencyofcorruptioninwater,formalsystemsof
    accountabilityareoftendeterredandreplacedbydis-
    cretionarydecision-making,characterizedbyexclu-
    sivenessandlimitedtransparency.Thisrenderswater
    institutionslessefectiveandlesspronetoadaptto
    newchallengesasthestatusquoispreferredtopro-
    tectvestedinterests.
    Thereisagrowingknowledgebaseonmeasuresto
    strengthenaccountabilityandintegrityandhence
    reducecorruption.Thesimplicationofprocedures,
    increasedtransparencyandparticipationwillgoa
    longwayinreducingcorruption:thiswasillustratedin
    theWorldBank-supportedKecamatanDevelopment
    Project(KDP).Thisprojecthasascopeofmorethan
    34,000villagesacrossIndonesiaandhassupported
    thecountryswatersectorbybuilding7,178cleanwater
    supplyunits,2,904sanitationunitsand7,326irriga-
    tionsystems.Corruptionwasinitiallyinvolved:ofcials
    beingbribedtoawardprojects,fundingcutsbyupper
    levelsofgovernment,illicitfeesbeingchargedtousers,
    andunder-deliveryofmaterialsandservicesbysup-
    pliers.AsaresulttheKDPbuiltanti-corruptionmeas-
    uresintoitsprojectsthatemphasizedsimplication
    ofprocedures,transparencyandinformation-sharing
    throughouttheprojectcycle(WIN,2009).
    25.4Opportunitiesforimprovingwater
    institutions
    Uncertaintyinnatural,technicalandsocialsystemsis
    relevanttoinstitutionalresponsesbecauseitcandis-
    tortdecision-making.Decisionsmadeunderconditions
    ofuncertaintymayunderestimateoroverestimatethe
    challengestowhichtheyrespond,resultingintoo-
    costlyornon-requiredmeasures,orconversely,insuf-
    cientmeasuresthatcanthreateninvestmentsandpro-
    gressalreadymade.Institutionalresponsesarecrafted
    andimplementedbysocialsystems,whichcanbeas
    hardtopredictasclimatechangeanditsimpacts.An
    institutionalresponsemeasurebasedonanacceptable
    degreeofcertaintyhownaturalsystemswillbehave
    inthenearfuturemaynotgofariftherearediferent
    perceptionsonwhatisfairaswellasdisparateobjec-
    tivesandinterestamongwaterusersinthesocialsys-
    tem.Itisimportantthatriskanduncertaintyassoci-
    atedwithclimatechangebeputintocontextrelative
    tootherrisksthatwaterinstitutionsface.Changesin
    waterdemandmaybemoreimportantforsomecoun-
    triesthanchangesinactualsupply.
    Uncertaintycanpartlybeovercomebybetterdata,in-
    formationandknowledge(seeChapter26,Knowledge
    andcapacitydevelopment)butevenso,thefuturewill
    alwaysbeunpredictableandrequiresexibility,hence
    theimperativetodevelopresponsiveinstitutions
    thatcandealwithatleastsomeoftheuncertainties.
    Situationsofhighnatural,technicalorsocialuncertain-
    tycancreatedisincentivesforcooperationandstake-
    holderparticipation.Theprobabilityofinstitutional
    WWDR4 579 WATERANDINSTITUTIONALCHANGE
    failureandthustheabilitytodealwithsituationsof
    uncertaintyishigherthemoreactorswhobreakthe
    rulesofthegamewithoutappropriatesanctions.For
    example,newwaterregulatoryinstitutionsincorrupt
    environmentsmaynotprovidesufcientincentivefor
    fairerandmoreefectivewaterreallocationandim-
    provedaccountability.Knowledgeonhowinstitutions
    candeveloptobetterrespondtopresentandfuture
    risksanduncertaintiesisrudimentaryandthereneeds
    tobealotmoreresearchintopracticalapplicationof
    institutionalmeasurestodeterminewhatworks,and
    underwhatconditionsitworks.Long-terminvestment
    tobuildwaterinstitutionsisneeded;inparticular,in-
    vestmentformonitoringinrelationtogovernanceand
    institutionalperformanceisseverelylacking.
    Thischapterhasindicatedsomeofthefactorsrequired
    forsuccessfulwaterinstitutionsandhighlightedthat
    thesevaryconsiderablyaccordingtocontext.Efective
    institutionalchangeandtowhatdegreeitcandeal
    withuncertaintyiscloselyrelatedtopathdependence
    aswellastocontextspecicconditions.Itisimportant
    thatwaterdecision-makersintensifytheirefortsto
    provideincentivesformeaningfulinstitutionalchange
    tobettercopewithuncertainty.Amongotheractions,
    thefollowingshouldbetakenintoaccount.
    Implementationchallengesremainabigobstacleto
    efectivewaterreformandmanagementandshould
    bemorecoherentlyaddressedaspartofinstitutional
    reformprocesses.Challengessuchasvestedpolitical
    interestsandaccountabilitysystemsshouldbemore
    carefullyanalysedandaddressedaspartofwaterre-
    latedinstitutionalreform.Manycountriesareplagued
    withimplementationproblems,drivenbyforexample
    limitedcapacitiesandfunding,elitecaptureofpolicy
    processes,andinstitutionalgapsandfragmentation.
    Asapartofovercomingsomeofthesechallengesthis
    itisimportantto:
    Seekcontinuousalignmentandimplementationof
    water,energy,ecosystemandlandpolicieswithin
    formalandinformalinstitutionsandprocessesthat
    efectivelyguideactionsfortheseareas.Currently
    manyinstitutionstendtobefragmented,over-lap-
    pingandsometimesevenconictive.Thereisthus
    alotofroomforcontinuingtodevelopinstitutional
    linkagesasastrategytostrengthenadaptiveman-
    agement.Hence,thisalsomeansincreasedpolicy
    synergiesbetweenissuesrelatedtowater,food,en-
    ergyandecosystems.
    Addressfundamentalgovernancechallengessuch
    aslimitedtransparency,accountabilityandstake-
    holderinvolvementthatprovidereformimplemen-
    tationdisincentives.Itislesslikelythatwater
    institutionscanperformtheirintendedfunctions
    (e.g.fairandefcientwaterallocationorwater
    servicesprovision)ingovernancesystemscharac-
    terizedbyclientelism,corruptionandvestedpoliti-
    calinterests.Insuchcasesdecision-makinggets
    moreunpredictableandincreasesuncertaintyinfor
    examplesocialsystemsforthosethatlackpolitical
    andeconomicinuence.
    Targetparticularcapacitydevelopment,dataand
    informationneedsandpromotelearning-oriented
    institutionalprocesses.Experiencesuggeststhat
    institutionalreformisaniterativelearningprocess
    whereinstitutionalchangeisnegotiatedbetween
    diferentgroups.Therearenoperfectsolutions;there
    areonlysolutionsthatworkinaparticularcontext.
    Othershaveexpressedthisaslookforthebestt,
    notthebestpractice(Baiettietal.,2006).
    Gobeyondformalregulationandincorporateinfor-
    malinstitutionsintoanalysesofriskanduncertain-
    ty.Waterresourcesinmanypartsoftheworldare
    allocatedbyinformallocalinstitutionsandformal
    regulatorysystemsmayhaveonlylimitedinuence.
    Tofullyunderstandinstitutionaldriversandimple-
    mentefectivewaterreformitiscriticaltolookat
    thedynamicsbetweenformalandinformalinstitu-
    tions.Meetingthechallengeofreachingpoorand
    marginalizedgroupsofsocietywhonormallyde-
    pendoninformalsystemsofwaterallocationand
    waterserviceswillrelyonwaterdecision-makers
    providingincentivestostrengthenlocalinformal
    institutionsandmakingwaterpoliciesandregula-
    tionsmoresupportiveofthem.
    Underlinethatnancingremainsanimportant
    challengetocopewithpresentandfutureuncer-
    taintiesinsocial,naturalandtechnicalsystems.
    Acceptableandfunctioninginstitutionsunderpin
    increasedandmoreefectiveinvestmentsinwater
    development.Poorinstitutionsconstituteampli-
    edinvestmentriskandafectthecompetitiveness
    ofcountriesinglobalmarkets,theattractionof
    foreigndirectinvestment,aswellasimpactingon
    rmsinnationalandlocalmarkets.Whiletheneed
    foradditionalinvestmentinwaterisacknowledged,
    muchmorefocushastobeputonhowtomake
    mostefectiveuseofpresentfundingformorein-
    formedinvestmentdecision-makingtoreducerisks
    andcopewithuncertainties.Thereisthusaneed
    CHAPTER25 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 580
    todevelopbettercostbenetanalysesofvari-
    ousinvestmentsoptionsonhowpublicandprivate
    sectorsbestshouldusetheirfunding,capacities
    andknowledge.

    Notes
    1 Sociologicalstudiessuggestthatinformalinstitutionsatlocal
    levelscanbeperceivedasformal.Sometimesadistinctionis
    madebyusingstatutoryandcustomaryinstitutions.
    2 Itisacknowledgedthattherecanbebigvariationsbetween
    countrieswithinaregion.Theresultsofthesurveyshouldbe
    perceivedasrelativeandnotsuitableforregionalcomparison.

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    UNW-DPCandUNESCO-IHE

    AuthorsHaniSewilam(UNW-DPC)andGuyAlaerts(UNESCOIHE/DelftUniversityof
    Technology)
    CHAPTER 26
    Developing knowledge and capacity
    Shutterstock/aaleksander

    The water sector will increasingly be subject to externally driven changes, yet societies will at
    the same time expect more reliable water services and less risk. Our understanding of natural
    and social phenomena has gaps, and, therefore, knowledge and capacity development is a
    top priority on the international agenda.
    To deal with the new and dynamic challenges, the adaptive capacity of individuals, society
    and institutions is to be enhanced.
    Knowledge sharing and collaborative tools will become prominent. ICT will be a powerful
    instrument to disseminate information and involve stakeholders in decision-making.
    The existing gaps in our knowledge about how global change is going to afect us and how
    all societies should continuously adjust their water sectors to new external changes and
    evolving internal demands put developing knowledge and capacity as a top priority on the
    international agenda.
    Developing the adaptive capacity of individuals, society and institutions is needed to face the
    new and dynamic challenges caused by global change.
    There is a need for an increased use of knowledge sharing and collaborative tools. The power
    of ICT should be used to accelerate the dissemination of information and impose social
    learning within water institutions.
    26.1Achangingagenda
    Sustainablewatermanagementisoneofhumanitys
    mostimportantchallengestodayandinthefuture.
    Rapidchangesinthehydrologicalcycle,andincreased
    incidenceofhazardssuchasextremeweatherevents,
    arefurthercomplicatingtheprocessesofdecision-
    makingforstakeholdersandwatermanagersby
    increasingriskanduncertainty.Forexample,uncer-
    taintiesinwatermanagementareassociatedwithvari-
    oushydrological,hydraulic,structuralandeconomic
    aspects.Risksarealsopresentatdiferentlevelsof
    watersystemsincludingtheriskofnaturaldisasters,
    risksinvolvedintheoperationofwaterinfrastructures,
    drought,andrisksassociatedwithinvestinginwa-
    terprojects.Theresultingadverseimpactsareneither
    uniformacrosstime,spaceandsectors,norfairtoall
    groups.Box26.1illustratestheimpactthatnaturaldis-
    astershaveonwomenasaresultoftheirintensivein-
    volvementinwatermanagementandtheirweakadap-
    tivecapacities.
    Theknowledgetoaddressmanyofthesechallenges
    doesexist.However,therearestillconsiderablegaps
    inwhatweknow.Forexampletherearegapsinour
    knowledgeabouthowglobalchangeisgoingtoafect
    usandwhatourresponsesshouldbe.Therearegaps
    inourunderstandingofhowwaterservicesshouldbe
    delivered,andofhowtomanagetheresourceofwater
    moreefectivelyandsustainably.Thisrepresentsthe
    rstkeychallenge.Butwhatisequallyimportantisthat
    evenwhentheappropriateknowledgeisavailable,it
    doesnotalwaysgetreadilydisseminatedandshared
    andtranslatedintoproperplanningorefectiveaction.
    Ontheonehand,thetime-lapsebetweenresearchnd-
    ingsandwidespreadlocalactionsisstilltoolong.On
    theotherhand,institutionsareweakincertaindevel-
    opingnations,especiallyatlocal-governmentleveland
    inmanycommunities.Whilethisconstrainingefectis
    especiallynoticeableincountriesthataredeveloping
    intomoderneconomies,itisachallengeforallsocie-
    tiesastheycontinuouslyadjusttheirwatersectorsto
    newexternalchangesandevolvinginternaldemands.
    Therefore,itistheweakcapacityinthewatersectorin-
    stitutionsthatisthekeyobstacletoenhancedperfor-
    mance,andnottheshortfallinnancialsupport,aswas
    thecaseinthe1970sand1980s.
    Theinternationaldevelopmentbanksreportongoing
    problemsinidentifyingfeasibleandwell-preparedin-
    vestmentprojects.Forinstance,inAsia,boththeAsian
    DevelopmentBankandtheWorldBankhavebeen
    experiencingconstraintsoverthepastdecadeintheir
    attemptstoincreaseinvestmentinthewatersector.
    TheEuropeanUnionreportsasimilarsituation;onlya
    portionofthe20022010structuralfundingforwa-
    terinfrastructureinthenewmemberstatesincentral
    andsouthernEuropewasabsorbedefectively.The
    EuropeanCommissionassessedthatthiswascaused
    inter aliabyfactorsrelatedtoweakcapacitiesinthe
    sectorsagenciescapacitiesintermsofthenumber
    ofcivilservantsandspecialists;oftheskillsandexperi-
    enceavailable;andoftheprevailingmanagerialand
    policyenvironmentinthepublicsector.
    26.2Developingcapacity
    26.2.1Basicunderstanding
    Capacityisanattributeofindividuals,organizations
    andotherformsofinstitutions.Itisnotsomething
    externaltotheseindividualsandbodies.In2005,the
    OECDdenedcapacityastheabilityofpeople,or-
    ganizations,andsocietyaswholetomanagetheiraf-
    fairssuccessfully.Capacitydevelopment(CD)furnish-
    estheframeworks,approachesandtoolsneededto
    carryoutinstitutionaldevelopment.Byitsverynature,
    Indevelopingcountries,womenaregenerallyresponsible
    forproducingfood.Thismakesthemthersttofacethe
    risksthatcomewithdroughtanduncertainrainfall.Climate
    changeoftenmeansthatwomenandyounggirlshaveto
    walkeverfurthertocollectwater.Forinstance,womenin
    sub-SaharanAfricaspend40billionhoursperyearcol-
    lectingwaterequivalenttoayearslabourbytheentire
    workforceinFrance.Thefollowingaresomeexamplesthat
    showthatwomenarethersttosuferfromtheriskand
    uncertaintyofclimatechange:
    Womenboysandgirlsaretimesmorelikelythanmen
    todieduringadisaster(Peterson,2007).
    lnBangladeshduringthecyclonedisastersin
    ofthe140,000fatalitieswerewomen(Zeitlin,2007).
    DuringtheemergencycausedbyhurricaneKatrinain
    theUnitedStates,mostofthevictimstrappedinNew
    OrleanswerethepoorAfricanAmericanwomenwith
    theirchildren(Gaultet.al.,2005;Williamsetal.,2006).
    lnSriLankaitwaseasierformentosurviveduringthe
    tsunamibecauseboysaregenerallytaughthowtoswim
    andclimbtreeswhilegirlsarenot(Oxfam,2005).
    Source: UNDP (2009).
    BOX 26.1
    Genderchallenges
    CHAPTER26 CHALLLNCLAPLAPLPOP1S 584
    WWDR4 585 DEVELOPINGKNOWLEDGEANDCAPACITY
    CDisrelevantonlyinthecontextofchange,anditis
    partandparcelofchangemanagement(Alaerts,1999;
    EuropeAid,2005).
    Capacitydevelopmentandknowledgemanagement
    aretwosidesofthesamecoin.Thisdenitionallowsa
    measurable,operationalinterpretationtobegivento
    capacity.Italsoemphasizesthelinkbetweencapac-
    ityandaveriable,on-the-groundimpactafterCD
    interventionshavetakenplace.SeeingCDandknowl-
    edgemanagementinthiswayalsomakesthecasefor
    developingcriticalextracapacitytogeneratefresh
    knowledgetoprepareforthefutureKnowledgeman-
    agementhasbecomeamainstreamstrategyusedby
    privatebusinessestoremaincompetitive,andthere-
    foreprotable,butmostgovernmentsandsector
    agencies,andnon-governmentalorganizationsforthat
    matter,stilllackthestructuralprovisionsthatwouldal-
    lowthislearningtotakeplace.
    TheapplicationdomainofCDisbroad.However,there
    areanumberofcommonsituationswhereCDinitia-
    tivesarehavinganefect.
    ImprovingtechnicalcompetenceSuchanobjec-
    tiveisgenerallyreadilyappreciatedandaccepted
    becauseitcanoftenbeaddressedbytargeting
    theindividualtechnicalcompetencesofstafand
    theskillsmixintheorganization.Generally,such
    programmesdonotleadtostructuralchangeand
    reform.
    ImprovingoverallperformanceandresultsToen-
    ablestafandotheragentstobuildcapacityand
    useit,improvedincentivesmayhavetobeofered
    forinstancebettercareeropportunities,higher
    remuneration,andeducationopportunities.Itis
    oftenassumedthatworkingonanorganizations
    technicalcompetenceisenoughtodevelopcapac-
    ity.ButaCDefortmayalsoinvolvechangesin
    legalandregulatoryframeworks.Examplesofsuch
    changeprocessaretheUgandaWaterandDrainage
    Board(Mugisha,2009;WWAP,2009,p.263)and
    theNetherlandsMinistryofTransport,PublicWorks
    andWaterManagementnowtheMinistryof
    InfrastructureandtheEnvironment(Box26.2).
    Strengtheningaccountabilityandmakingthelocal
    voiceheardSometimesthereisaneedtobuildtheca-
    pacitiesoflocalgroupsandlocalcouncilstohelpthem
    updatetheirskillsandbuildresilience(Box26.3)
    Improvingdecision-makingIncreasingly,theaim
    ofdecision-makersistohelpsectoralagenciesand
    societyatlargetobecomebetterabletodealwith
    uncertaintyinthefuture.Thisisofspecialrelevance
    whendiscussinggeopoliticalsituationssuchasin-
    ternationalriverbasinconicts,healthepidemics,
    climatechange,etc.andcallsfortheestablishment
    ofacommunicationsandinformationplatformwhere
    Allnationsareregularlysearchingforbetterandmoreef-
    fectivepublicadministrationsystems.Thisisillustratedby
    changesthathavetakenplaceintheNetherlandsMinistry
    ofTransport,PublicWorksandWaterManagement
    whichin2010becametheMinistryofInfrastructureand
    theEnvironment.Institutionalreformwasimplemented
    inaseriesofphasesthroughcapacitydevelopmentand
    knowledgemanagementprocesses.
    Phase1:ReadinessforchangeInthe1970s,publicpres-
    surehadforcedtheministrytochangetointegrated
    waterresourcesmanagementandtoacquireecological
    expertise.Butinthelate1990s,theministrysdecentral-
    izedstructurewithitsregionaldirectoratesanddominant
    engineeringserviceswasdeemedtobeunabletocope
    withthenewgenerationofnational-scaleprojectsand
    demandsfortighterbudgetdiscipline.
    Phase2:DevelopingthenewcapacityThenewinstitu-
    tionalstructuretookshapebetween2004and2007.The
    supportivecapacitydevelopmentincludedthefollowing:
    Workshopsbrainstormingsessionsleadershiptraining
    andotherinteractiveevents.
    AnewskillsmixHanyexpertsbecameredundant
    whilepersonnelwithnewskillsintheareasofcontract
    management,budgetcontrolandcommunicationswere
    takenon.
    Acommunicationsstrategytokeepthepublicandpoli-
    ticiansinformedaboutprogress.
    Phase3:LessonslearnedAfterthereform,theminis-
    tryandtheexecutiveagencyweredeemedtobebet-
    terpreparedforthenewdecade.ThephasedCDprocess
    allowedthemtopilotnewideasandgeneratesolutions,
    thuscreatingafertilelearninggroundforlearning-by-
    doing.Atthesametime,earlyretirementandreleaseof
    seasonedseniorexpertsseverelyerodedtheministrys
    knowledgebaseanditscapacitytotrainnewstaf.
    Source: Various reports including Metze (2009).
    BOX 26.2
    Changingtides:Changemanagementatthe
    NetherlandsMinistryofTransport,PublicWorks
    andWaterManagement
    CHAPTER26 CHALLLNCLAPLAPLPOP1S 586
    asystemicprocessforimprovingmanagementpoli-
    ciesandpractices.Itmaintainsasitscentralobjective
    toimprovetheadaptivecapacityofthemanagement
    regimeingeneral(Pahl-Wostletal.,2010)andparticu-
    larlytheactorsinvolved.AsnotedbyBormannetal.
    (1993),Adaptivemanagementislearningtomanage
    bymanagingtolearn.
    Whiletraditionaltechnicalknowledgeandthecapacityto
    managewaterresources(asdescribedinSection26.2.1)
    remainsimportantinthecontextofAWM,theabilityof
    waterinstitutionsandmanagementactorstoabsorb,
    adoptandimplementnewformsofmanagementis
    dependentonadditionalknowledgeandcapacities.In
    AWM,capacitydevelopmentreferstothedevelopment
    oftheknowledge,skillsandattitudesthatarenecessary
    formanagersandprofessionalorganizationstoincrease
    theiradaptivecapacityandcreateinstitutionsthatare
    exibleandresponsiveenoughtocopewithriskand
    uncertainty(VanScheltingaetal.,2010).
    Peoplesadaptivecapacityneedstobeanalysedand
    quantiedtofacetheriskanduncertaintycausedby
    suchsourcesasclimatechange.Therefore,theAfrican
    ClimateChangeResilienceAlliance(ACCRA)hasiden-
    tiedvecharacteristicsofadaptivecapacity.These
    canbeusedtoanalysepeoplesownadaptivecapacity
    inthefaceofacombinationofriskandstress.These
    characteristicsalsohelptoanalysehowdiferentpro-
    grammingapproacheseithersupportorhinderadap-
    tivecapacity.Thevecharacteristicsaresummarized
    asfollows(ACCRA,2010):
    Theassetbase:Thesearethevariousnancial,
    physical,natural,social,politicalandhumancapitals
    necessarytobestprepareasystemtorespondtoa
    changingclimate.
    Institutionsandentitlements:Theabilityofsystem
    toguaranteeequitableaccessandentitlementto
    keyresourcesandassetsisafundamentalcharac-
    teristicofadaptivecapacity.
    Knowledgeandinformation:Successfuladaptation
    requiresinformationaboutandunderstandingof
    futurechange,knowledgeaboutadaptationoptions
    andtheabilitytoassessthem,andthecapacityto
    implementthemostsuitableinterventions.
    Innovation:Akeycharacteristicofadaptivecapac-
    ityrelatestoasystemsabilitytosupportinnovation
    andrisktaking.
    Flexibleforward-thinkingdecision-makingand
    governance:Informeddecision-making,transpar-
    ency,andprioritizationeachformkeyelementsof
    Inmanysocieties,womenhaveuniqueclimatechangere-
    latedskills,experiencesandcapacitiesthathavebeenac-
    quiredovercenturiesofactiveparticipationinwaterman-
    agementactivities.Capacitydevelopmentactivitiescan
    addevenmorevaluetothisknowledgeandallowthemto
    contributepositivelytotheidenticationofappropriate
    adaptationandmitigationtechniques.Thefollowingare
    threerealexamples:
    lntheHondurancommunityofLaHasicawas
    givengender-sensitivecommunitytrainingaboutearly
    warningandrisksystems.DuringHurricaneMitcha
    fewmonthslaternotasingledeathwasreportedinLa
    Masicabecausethemunicipalgovernmenthadbeen
    abletoevacuatethepopulationintime(Snchezdel
    Valle,2000).
    DuringadroughtonthesmallislandsoftheFederated
    StatesofMicronesia,thewomensancestralknowledge
    oftheislandshydrologyallowedthemtoidentifyplac-
    estodigwellsfordrinkingwater.(Anderson,2002).
    1hefoodsinBangladeshinleftdeadaround
    fourmillionevacuees,andthousandsofotherswithout
    foodorhousing.Recently,inthedistrictofGaibandha,
    awomannamedSahenahasorganizedacommitteeto
    preparethewomenforoods.Thecommitteetrainsthe
    womentomakeportableclayovens,raisetheirhouses,
    anduseradiostohearoodswarningsandnewsofcli-
    matechange.EfortssuchasSahenassavemanylives
    andempowerwomen(Oxfam,2008).
    Source: UNDP (2009).
    BOX 26.3
    Womensparticipationintheadaptationand
    mitigationprocesses
    projectinitiatorsandgovernmentcanadapttheirini-
    tiativesandbuildabroaderpoliticalconsensus.
    1
    Education,researchandinnovationInitsmosttradi-
    tionalform,capacitydevelopmentfocusesonacoun-
    tryseducational,researchandinnovationsystems.
    Suchprogrammescanbenarrowandspecicor
    broadandgeneral.
    26.2.2Developingadaptivecapacity
    AsdiscussedinSection26.2.1,ignoringuncertainty
    increasestheriskofinappropriatewatermanage-
    mentdecisions.adaptivewatermanagement(AWM)is
    designedtoaddressincreaseduncertaintyandriskby
    makingthemfundamentalpartsofthemanagement
    approach.AWMusesthelessonslearntfromtheout-
    comesofmanagementstrategies.Itconsiderschanges
    inexternalfactorsinaproactivemannertodevelop
    WWDR4 587 DEVELOPINGKNOWLEDGEANDCAPACITY
    adaptivecapacity.
    Therearediferentapproachestoimprovingtheadap-
    tivecapacitiesofindividualsandinstitutions.Forex-
    ample,theInstituteofDevelopmentStudiesproposed
    anapproachtodevelopadaptivecapacityasoneof
    threepillarsofanewapproachtoClimateSmartDisaster
    RiskManagementCSDRM(Mitchelletal.,2010).This
    approachinvolvedovervehundredresearchers,
    communityleaders,non-governmentalorganization
    (NGO)workersandgovernmentofcialsfromten
    disaster-pronecountries.Theapproachisoutlinedas
    follows:
    Tostrengthentheabilityofpeople,organizations
    andnetworkstoexperimentandinnovate.
    Topromoteregularlearningandreectiontoim-
    provetheimplementationofpoliciesandpractices.
    Toensurethatpoliciesandpracticestotackle
    changingdisasterriskareexible,integratedacross
    sectorsandscale,andhaveregularfeedbackloops.
    Tousetoolsandmethodstoplanforuncertainty
    andunexpectedevents.
    In2009,CAREInternationalproposedfourrelated
    strategiestoformanintegratedapproachthatcom-
    binestraditionalknowledgewithinnovativestrategies.
    Theaimwastobuildadaptivecapacityinordertoface
    thenewanddynamicchallengescausedbyclimate
    change.(Table26.1):
    Climate-resilientlivelihoodstrategiesincombination
    withincomediversicationandcapacitybuildingfor
    planningandimprovedriskmanagement;
    Disasterriskreductionstrategiestoreducetheim-
    pactofhazards,particularlyonvulnerablehouse-
    holdsandindividuals;
    Capacitydevelopmentstrategiesforlocalcivilso-
    cietyandgovernmentinstitutionssothattheycan
    providebettersupporttocommunities,households
    andindividualsintheiradaptationeforts;and
    Advocacyandsocialmobilizationstrategiestoad-
    dresstheunderlyingcausesofvulnerability;causes
    suchaspoorgovernance,lackofcontroloverre-
    sources,orlimitedaccesstobasicservices.
    26.3Preparingacapacitydevelopment
    strategy
    26.3.1Arationalcomprehensiveframeworkfor
    analysis
    Figure26.1illustratestheelementsofcapacitydevel-
    opment.Italsoprovidesacomprehensiveanalytical
    frameworkthathelpstoguideassessmentsofCDneeds
    anddeneappropriate,case-specicCDprogrammes
    AlaertsandKaspersma1hediagramidentifes
    fourlevelsofattention:theindividual,theorganization,
    theenablingenvironment,andcivilsociety.Itspecies,
    inbroadterms,whatcapacityandknowledgeimply,
    howCDcantakeplace,whatthepotentialoutcomes
    are,andhowtheCDcanbeassessedafterinterventions.
    Capacity,orthelackofit,canbestbeassessed
    throughpracticalandnarrowlydenedproxiesand
    checkliststhataretailoredtosuitvarioussituations
    andpurposesLusthausetalAlaertsand
    Kaspersma
    Theperformanceofthewatersectorandallitssub-
    sectorsistheresultoftheefectiveactionofindi-
    vidualswiththeproperknowledgeandcapacity,who
    functioninlargerorganizationssuchasministries,
    localgovernments,wateruserassociationsandcivil
    societyorganizations.Efectivenessdependsbothon
    theefectivenessofindividualsandonthefeatures
    thatshapethecapacityoftheorganizationitselfits
    skillsmix,itsinternaloperationalandadministrative
    In2000,theMekongdeltafacedtheworstoodsin
    40years.Morethan800peopledied,ninemillion
    wereafected,andthecostsofdamagesexceeded
    US$455million.Sincethen,arangeofinitiativeshave
    beenimplementedundertheFloodMitigationand
    ManagementProgramme(FMMP).Theseincludedood
    forecastingcapacities,bestpracticeguidelinesforinte-
    gratedoodriskmanagement,guidelinesforintegration
    ofoodpreparednessplans,oodprobabilitymapping
    andlandusezoning,andanannualMekongoodforum.
    TheFMMPs2009oodreporthighlightedhowclimate
    changespecicallyinuencedoodrisk.Climatechange
    wasalsoakeythemeattheFMMPannualMekongFlood
    Forumin2010.Theforumpromoteslearningacross
    theMekongbasin.Itprovidesgovernmentsandoth-
    ersinvolvedintheprogrammeanopportunitytogather
    dataandtoexploreimplicationsandresponsesbyshar-
    ingtheirexperiences.Forexample,theAsianDisaster
    PreparednessCentre(ADPC)isgivinglessonsonintegrat-
    ingoodriskmanagementatdistrictandprovinciallevels
    tocountriesfacingsimilarchallenges.
    Source: Mitchell et al. (2010).
    BOX 26.4
    EnhancingadaptivecapacityintheMekongbasin
    CHAPTER26 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 588
    TABLE 26.1
    CAREsframeworkforcommunity-basedadaptation
    Climate-resilient
    livelihoods
    Disaster risk reduction Capacity development Addressing underlying
    causes of vulnerability
    National
    level
    - Government is
    monitoring, analysing
    and disseminating
    current and future
    climate information
    related to livelihoods
    - Climate change is
    integrated into relevant
    sectoral policies
    - Climate change is
    integrated into poverty
    reduction strategies
    and/or other
    development policies
    - Government is
    monitoring, analysing
    and disseminating
    disaster risk information
    - Government is engaged
    in planning and
    implementing disaster
    risk management
    (prevention,
    preparedness, response
    and recovery)
    - Functional early warning
    systems are in place
    - Government has the
    capacity to respond to
    disasters
    - Government has the
    capacity to monitor,
    analyse and disseminate
    information on current and
    future climate risks
    - Government has a mandate
    to integrate climate change
    into policies
    - National policies are rolled
    out at regional and local
    levels
    - Resources are allocated
    for the implementation of
    adaptation related policies
    - Government
    recognizes the
    specic vulnerability
    of women and
    marginalized groups
    to climate change
    - Policy and
    implementation is
    focused on reducing
    these vulnerabilities
    - Civil society is
    involved in planning
    and implementation
    of adaptation
    activities
    Local
    government
    and
    community
    level
    Localinstitutionshave
    access to climate
    information
    Localplansandpolicies
    support climate-resilient
    livelihoods
    Localgovernmentand
    NGO extension workers
    understand climate risks
    and are promoting
    adaptation strategies
    Localinstitutionshave
    access to disaster risk
    information
    Localdisasterrisk
    management plans are
    being implemented
    - Functional early warning
    systems are in place
    Localgovernmenthas
    the capacity to respond
    to disasters
    Localinstitutionshavethe
    capacity to monitor, analyse
    and disseminate information
    on current and future
    climate risks
    Localinstitutionshavethe
    capacity and resources
    to plan and implement
    adaptation activities
    Localplanning
    processes are
    participatory
    - Women and
    marginalized groups
    have a voice in local
    planning processes
    Localpoliciesprovide
    access to and control
    over critical livelihoods
    resources for all
    Household
    and
    individual
    level
    - People are generating
    and using climate
    information for planning
    - Households are
    employing climate-
    resilient agricultural
    practices
    - Households have
    diversied livelihoods,
    including non-
    agricultural strategies
    - People are managing
    risk by planning for and
    investing in the future
    - Households have
    protected reserves of
    food and agricultural
    inputs
    - Households have secure
    shelter
    Keyassetsareprotected
    - People have access to
    early warnings for
    climate hazards
    - People have the mobility
    to escape danger in the
    event of climate hazards
    - Social and economic
    safety nets are available
    to households
    - Financial services are
    available to households
    - People have knowledge
    and skills to employ
    adaptation strategies
    - People have access to
    seasonal forecasts and
    other climate information
    - Men and women are
    working together to
    address challenges
    - Households have
    control over critical
    livelihood resources
    - Women and
    marginalized groups
    have equal access to
    information, skills and
    services
    - Women and
    marginalized groups
    have equal rights
    and access to critical
    livelihood resources
    Source: CARE (2009), reproduced with permission of the CARE International Poverty, Environment and Climate Change Network (PECCN).
    procedures,incentives,etc.Organizationswiththe
    rightcapacityandproceduresstillneedanenabling
    environmenttoputthefacilitatingfactorsinplace.
    Suchanenvironmentincludesanenablinglegaland
    regulatoryframework,scalrulesthatstimulateaction,
    andabroadlysupportiveparliament,electorateand
    consumerbase.Thescopeanddepthofthedesired
    CDprocesswilldependontheoutcomesoftheabove
    analysisandtheextentofthepoliticalsupportfor
    change.Theanalyticalframeisexhaustiveandcan
    WWDR4 589 DEVELOPINGKNOWLEDGEANDCAPACITY
    helptoidentifythesub-setofinstitutionswherede-
    mand,readinessandlikelyimpactmaybehighest.
    Knowledgeunderstandingandskillsaregenerallyde-
    velopedthroughknowledgetransferinstrumentssuch
    astrainingandeducation.However,whetherthede-
    siredcapacityorknowledgeisexplicitortacitdictates
    whichinstrumentshouldbechosen.Tacitknowledgeis
    eventuallyfarmoreimportantbecauseitshapesskills
    anddeeperattitudes.Thisisbesttransferredthrough
    one-on-oneinteractionbetweenjuniorandsenior,ap-
    prenticeandteacher.Organizationalcapacityisen-
    hancedbyeducatingstafandbyhelpingtheorgani-
    zationtolearnfromexperiences.Technicalassistance,
    managementadvice,learningexperiences,comparison
    withpeers,andbenchmarking,areimportantinstru-
    ments.Networksandinformationcommunication
    systems(ICSs)haveanincreasinglyimportantrolefor
    improvingknowledgeandcapacityandopeningup
    newavenuesfordisseminatingknowledge.
    Attheleveloftheenablingenvironment,govern-
    mentsandotheractorsalsolearnandbecomeable
    todevelopmoresupportiveenvironments.Policy-
    makers,governmentdepartments,andpoliticiansalso
    learnlessonsfrombestpracticesinothercountries.
    Finally,theroleofsocietyisofcoursecriticallyimpor-
    tantasitshapesthenationsconsensusforthefuture
    byelectingpoliticiansandholdingitsgovernment
    accountable.
    Eventually,capableindividualsandorganizations
    possessaggregatecompetencestoact.Therearefour
    typesofaggregatecompetences(Baser,2009;Alaerts
    andKaspersma
    FIGURE 26.1
    Schematicofcapacitydevelopmentatdiferentlevels,showinginputs,outcomesandmethodsofmeasurement
    Source: Alaerts et al. (2010), reproduced with permission from Taylor & Francis.
    Knowledge
    andCapacity
    Knowledge
    andCapacity
    DevelopmentTools
    Outcome
    +
    +
    =
    Indicator/Attribute
    ofCapacity
    andKnowledge
    INDIVIDUAL
    ORGANIZATION
    ENABLING
    ENVIRONMENT
    CIVILSOCIETY
    Factualknowledge
    Understanding
    Skills
    Attitudes
    FACTUAL
    KNOWLEDGE,
    UNDERSTANDING,
    SKILLS,
    ATTITUDE
    ORGANIZATION
    PERFORMANCE
    CONDUCIVENESS
    GOODGOVERNANCE
    SECTOR
    PERFORMANCE
    For Explicit Knowledge:
    Training,
    Education
    For Tacit Knowledge:
    Apprenticeship
    Peerlearning
    Strategies
    Humanresource
    Administrativeprocedure
    Budgetframe
    Accountabilityframe
    Competencesof
    theindividual,
    organization
    andsector/society
    1.Technicalsubstance
    2.Managerial
    3.Forgovernance
    4.Forcontinual
    learningand
    innovation
    Changemanagement
    Technicaladviceon
    structure,management
    andincentives
    Humanresource
    development
    Peerlearning
    Press
    Technicaladvice
    Dialogue
    Peerlearning
    Learning-by-doing
    Awarenessraising
    Masscommunication
    Learning-by-doing
    Politicalpriorities
    Policies
    Regulatoryframe
    Publicadministration
    Fiscalframe
    Waterliteracy
    Social/indigenouscapital
    Networking
    CHAPTER26 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 590
    theydontfullyaddressalltheperformanceproblems
    atonce(NelsonandTejasvi,2009).
    In2008,theWorldBankdevelopeditsown
    DevelopmentResultsFrameworktoAssessCapacity.
    Itdidthisbymeasuringcapacitythroughtheactual
    impactandperformanceintheeld.TheWorldBank
    andUNDPframeworksderivepartlyfromLopesand
    Theison(2003),whosuggestachecklistwithkey
    questionsthatshouldbeconsideredinassessments
    (seealsoWWAP,2006,p.456).
    Technicalorsubstantivecompetenceisrequiredto
    analyseandsolvetechnicalproblemsinarangeof
    areasfromconstructiontonancialaccounting.
    Organizationsneedapoolofleadershipandman-
    agementcompetencesembodiedintheirsenior
    staf.Inmanydevelopingcountries,agenciesmay
    scorewellontechnicalandcivilengineeringaspects
    skills,butmaybelessefectiveinmanagingperson-
    nelandadministration.Managementcompetences
    ensurethatthingsgetdone.
    Anefectiveandsustainablewatersectorrequires
    organizationsthatareabletofosterandapplythe
    principlesofgoodgovernancedialogueandcom-
    municationwithstakeholders,resourceallocation
    withinpolicyframeworksthataimforequityand
    povertyalleviation,sensitivitytovulnerablegroups
    andtransparencyandaccountability.
    Capableindividualsandorganizationsarethosewho
    continuouslylearnandinnovateLearningandinno-
    vationdonotcomenaturally;theyrequirenancial
    resources,personnelandmanagerialprocedures.
    26.3.2Assessmentofcapacityandneeds
    Asarststep,decision-makersshouldassessthein-
    stitutionalperformanceofthewatersectororsub-
    sector.Thisshouldincludealltheinstitutionsthatare
    involvedwithit.AnumberoforganizationsandUN
    agenciesareoferingguidanceandchecklistsforuse
    insuchassessments.Box26.5describesanumberof
    relevantsourcesofinformationandfurtherguidance
    isavailableinthesecondWorld Water Development
    Report(WWAP,2006,p.4548).
    In2007,theUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme
    (UNDP)compiledacollectionofCDassessmentexpe-
    riencesanditofersaframeworkforassessingcapac-
    ity.Thecoreissuesitlistsareinstitutionaldevelopment,
    leadership,knowledge,andmutualaccountability.
    Someofthecriticalfunctionalcapacitiesitincludesare
    thecapacitytoengageinmulti-stakeholderdialogue,
    situationalanalysis,visioncreation,policyandstrategy
    formulation,budgeting,andmonitoringandevaluation.
    OnceaCDassessmenthasbeencompleted,astrategy
    andactionplancanbederived.Suchstrategyshould
    beshapedcontextuallythroughdialoguewithstake-
    holdersbecausethereisnoonesizetsallstrategy.
    Addressingweakinstitutionalenvironmentsisnota
    straightforwardorlinearprocess.Itoftenworksbest
    throughstrategicincrementalismwherepractical
    stepsandincrementalreformsareadopted,evenif
    TheUNDPcapacitydevelopmentwebsite(www.capac-
    ity.undp.org)includeskeysourcesforgenericinfor-
    mationonhowtoperformcapacityassessments.It
    includesinitiatives,networks,resourcesandtools.Itof-
    fersaccesstotheCapacity2015initiativedevelopedto
    operationalizetheMDGs.
    TheSouthAfricanCapacityInitiative(SACI)(www.
    undp-saci.co.za)developedaCapacityMobilization
    ToolkitforsouthernAfricancountries,whichtakesinto
    considerationtheparticularlycomplexhumancapacity
    challengesassociatedwiththeimpactofHIV/Aids,pov-
    ertyandrecurringdisasters.
    TheWorldBankprovidesanonlineCapacity
    DevelopmentResourceCentre(www.worldbank.org/ca-
    pacity),whichprovidesanoverviewofcasestudies,les-
    sonslearned,howtoapproachesandgoodpractices
    pertainingtocapacitydevelopment.
    TheCanadianInternationalDevelopmentAgency
    (CIDA)hasdevelopedaCDtoolkit(www.acdi-cida.
    gc.ca)thatincludesreferencedocumentsforcapacity
    development.
    TheEuropeanCentreforDevelopmentPolicy
    Managementscapacitydevelopmentwebsite(www.
    capacity.org)aimstolookatpolicyandpracticeofca-
    pacitydevelopmentwithininternationaldevelopment
    cooperationandprovidesanewsletterandacompre-
    hensivematerialrelatedtocapacitydevelopmentinall
    sectors.
    TheInternationalDevelopmentResearchCentre
    (IDRC),theInternationalInstituteofRural
    Reconstruction(IIRR)andtheInternationalServicefor
    NationalAgriculturalResearch(ISNAR)implemented
    aprojecttobetterunderstandhowCDtakesplaceand
    howitsresultscanbeevaluated.
    AteamfromtheGermanAgencyforTechnical
    Cooperation(GTZ)supportedtheIndonesian
    Governmentinpreparingguidelinesonhowtoorganize
    andmanageaneedsassessmentprocess.Thisresulted
    inamedium-termregionalCDactionplan.
    BOX 26.5
    Sourcesforcapacitydevelopment
    WWDR4 591 DEVELOPINGKNOWLEDGEANDCAPACITY
    TheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB,2008)provides
    apracticalguidetoCDatthesectorlevel.According
    tothis,threepre-conditionsmustbefullledfora
    successfulCDprocess:theremustbedissatisfaction
    withthecurrentsituation;acrediblechangeprocess
    musthavebeenproposed;andavisionofthefuture
    shouldbesharedbystakeholders(Box26.2).Again,
    itappearsessentialthatthekeystakeholders,par-
    ticularlythegovernment,needtoownthechange
    process.
    Atthesectorallevel,manywatermanagementmin-
    istriesanddepartmentsfacestafngconstraints
    andareseekingadviceonbuildingcompetencies.
    Twoinitiativesarecurrentlymappingthewatersec-
    torshumanresourcesneeds.UNESCO-IHPand
    UNESCO-IHEhavebeenassessingwatereducation
    needsinseveralregions.Together,theInternational
    WaterAssociationlWAandtheUKDepartment
    forInternationalDevelopment(DFID)inassocia-
    tionwithUNESCO-IHEareassessingthehuman
    resourcesdevelopmentrequirementsforachieving
    theMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs)forwater
    supplyandsanitation(WSS).Astandardizedmeth-
    odologicalframeworkisbeingdevelopedbasedon
    vecountry-basedpilotstudies.
    26.3.3Assessmentofadaptivecapacity
    Capacitydevelopmentactivitiesshouldseektoen-
    hancetheabilitytocopewithuncertaintyandrisk.
    Thefollowingarejustsomeexamplesofabilitiesand
    functionsthatshouldbeavailableateachCDlevelto
    ensureadaptivecapacity:
    Individualsshouldhaveinformationoncurrent
    problems,sourcesofriskandthedesireddirection
    ofchange.Behaviourshouldbeproactive,andin-
    dividualsshouldabletolearnexiblyinavarietyof
    ways,(Fazeyetal.,2007).
    Organizationsshouldhavetheabilitytolearn,to
    challengetheirownestablishedwaysofthinking
    andacting,toreacttounpredictableinternaland
    externalchanges,andtoproducesocialchange
    andachievemissionimpact.
    Anenablingenvironmentrequiresthefreedomto
    adjustpoliciestothenewrealityofclimatechange
    TABLE 26.2
    Indicatorsforassessingadaptivecapacity
    Level
    Indicators
    Individual Arepeoplegeneratingandusingclimateinformationforplanning
    Arepeoplemanagingriskbyplanningforandinvestinginthefuture
    Dopeoplehavetheknowledgeandskillstoemployadaptationstrategies
    Aremenandwomenworkingtogethertoaddresschallenges
    Dowomenandothermarginalizedgroupshaveequalaccesstoinformationskillsandservices
    Organization lstheorganizationawareofwhichareasandgroupsareatrisk
    Cantheorganizationidentifyandassesstheriskstotheservicesbeingprovided
    lstheorganizationaddressingtheserisksinthelocalcommunitystrategyorcommunityplan
    Havedisasterriskmanagementpoliciesandpracticesbeenchangedasaresultofrefectionand
    learningbydoing
    lsthereaprocessinplaceforinformationandlearningtofowfromcommunitiestotheorganization
    andviceversa
    Enabling
    Environment
    Aretheinstitutionalframeworksadaptedtothenewrealityofrisks
    Arepoliciesreviewedusingtheglobalchangelens
    lstheenvironmentsupportingtheimplementationoflocaldisasterriskmanagementplans
    Whatisthelevelofparticipatoryplanningprocessesatlocallevels
    lsthereamechanismforthecommunicationofclimateinformation
    Arethevoicesofwomenandothermarginalizedgroupssupportedinlocalplanningprocesses
    Civil Society Arecivilsocietyentitiesabletomobilizeawarenessandresourcestomanagetheprocess
    Canthesocietylearnfromchange
    Doesthesocietyseekcreativesolutionstochange
    Howlongdoesittakethesocietytorespondtochanges
    Aretherestrongcommunicationchannelswithinthesociety
    Sources: CARE (2009); Maguire and Cartwright (2008); Urban and Mitchell (2011).
    CHAPTER26 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 592
    andothersourcesofuncertaintyandrisk.Itisno
    longerrealistictohavestablelong-termpolicies
    fordealingwithextremeweatherevents,ood,
    anddrought;policiesshouldacknowledgethe
    newconditionswherethebaselineisinherentlyun-
    stableandchanging(UNDP,2007).
    Civilsocietyorganizationsandnetworksshouldbe
    entitiesthatmobilizeandraiseawareness.They
    shouldhavetheresourcestomanageprocesses,
    havestrongcommunicationslinkswithorganiza-
    tionsandindividuals,andbeabletoinnovateand
    createadaptivesolutionsusingavailableresources
    andtechnologies.
    Table26.2providesselectedindicatorsfromCAREs
    handbook(CARE,2009)forassessingadaptivecapac-
    itytorisksandhazardscausedbyclimatechangeat
    thefourlevelsofaction.
    26.4Capacitydevelopmentstrategies
    andapproaches
    26.4.1Educationandtraining
    Capacitydevelopment,andinamoregeneralsense,
    thegenerationanddisseminationofknowledge,can
    takeplacethroughformal,non-formalandinformal
    educationandtraining.TheobjectivesofaCDinitia-
    tiveandthechoiceofprocessesandinstrumentsused
    dependonthecontextbecausetheinstitutionsthey
    focusonaretheexponentsofaparticularsetofeco-
    nomic,socialandculturalfactors.
    Astheglobaldemandformanagingwaterunder
    conditionsofriskanduncertaintyincreases,thelag
    betweenthedemandforandthesupplyofqualied
    stafisbecomingsignicant,especiallyindevelop-
    ingcountries.Theneedsofthewatersectorinterms
    ofthedevelopmentofindividualcapacitiescanonly
    beadequatelyaddressedthroughtheclosecollabo-
    rationofwaterandeducationprofessionals.Theim-
    portanceofprimaryandsecondaryeducationlevels
    shouldnotbeunderestimatedasmostofthepeople
    workingonthewatersectorareformallyeducated
    onlyattheselevelsandmostofthedecisionsafect-
    ingwaterresourcesaretakenbypeoplewhohave
    verylimitedformalwaterresourceseducation.New
    water-orientededucation,trainingprogrammesand
    approachesareneededtobridgetheever-widening
    knowledgeandskillsgapbetweendevelopedand
    developingcountries.Anumberofprincipalrec-
    ommendationsforaction,madeby50expertswho
    participatedintheworkshopEducationforWater
    Sustainability:WhereDecadesmeet
    2
    aresumma-
    rizedasfollows.
    At school
    Studentsshouldbecomeawareofhowprecious
    waterisandlearnaboutwater-relatedglobal
    challenges.
    Tofosterpositiveattitudesandbehaviourteachers
    shouldpromotethesocial,economicandenviron-
    mentalvaluesofwaterthroughcross-curriculade-
    velopmentandvalueseducation.
    Governments,togetherwithotherstakeholders,
    shoulddevelopdatabasesofexistingteachingand
    learningmaterials.Teachersshouldbetrainedto
    usethesematerials.Cooperationbetweengovern-
    mentsandpublicenterprisescanprovideincentives
    tomotivateteachers.

    Vocational education and training
    Demonstrationprojectsforintegratingvocational
    educationandtrainingapproachesintothewater
    supplyandsanitation(WSS)sectorshouldbesetup
    withthesupportofUNESCO.Occupationalcom-
    petenciesregardingWSSshouldbedevelopedand
    Source: UNESCO (2009).
    BOX 26.6
    HowtosavewaterinPalestine
    1heKing1alalSecondarySchoolinNablusisamem-
    beroftheUNESCOAssociatedSchoolsProjectNetwork
    (ASPnet).Itorganizedaseriesofexcursionstoenable
    studentstoexaminewaterresourcesundertheguidance
    ofexpertsandtolearnmoreaboutthispreciouscom-
    modity.Thestudentsthenreportedtheirexperiencesand
    ideastothelocalmediasothattheycouldsharewhat
    theyhadlearnedwiththerestofthecommunity.The
    schoolalsointroducednewandcreativeteachingmeth-
    odsandstudentswereinvitedtotranslatetheirideasand
    viewsthroughdrawing,singingandputtingonplays.
    Themainimpactoftheprojectisthatitenhancedstu-
    dentsunderstandingofthesignicanceofthewater
    shortagefacingthePalestinianTerritories,andmadethem
    moreawareofpossiblesolutions.Studentscametoreal-
    izethataccesstowaterisabasichumanright,aswellas
    anindividualandcollectiveresponsibility.Theprojectalso
    raisedthestudentsawarenessofthepowerofpeaceful
    dialogueandgeneratedcooperationbetweenteachersand
    studentsandhelpedthemtorespectotherpointsofview.
    WWDR4 593 DEVELOPINGKNOWLEDGEANDCAPACITY
    Trainingshouldbedevelopedwiththehelpof
    educatorstobridgethegapbetweentheoryand
    practice.
    Higher Education
    Universitiesshouldopenawindowtotheworld
    byoferingactionresearch,problem-basedlearn-
    ingandexperientiallearning.Theyshouldcooper-
    atewithsociety,andengagewiththecommunityin
    teachingandresearch.
    Universitiesneedtodevelopmechanismsthaten-
    surethatteachingmaterialsonbasicwaterknowl-
    edgeandonstate-of-the-artofwatermanagement
    arefreelyavailabletoallpractitioners.
    Thehighereducationsectorshoulddevelopanaca-
    demicallyrecognizedpeer-reviewprocessforad-
    vancedandinnovativeteachingmaterials.
    Changesinacademicstructuresshouldreectthe
    efcacyofsuccessfuluniversityinterventionsinim-
    provingbestpracticesincommunities.Weshould
    emphasiseefectiveactionprogrammes.
    Thereisnosinglebodyofknowledgeabouttheway
    watershouldbemanaged.Universitiesmusttake
    measurestoensurethattheexistingvarietyofpara-
    digmaticapproachesismadeavailabletothepublic.
    26.4.2Networkingandsharingknowledge
    Knowledgesharingisafragileprocessbecauseitre-
    quiresindividualstosharetheirpersonalbeliefswith
    others,withoutphysicalorpsychologicalimpediment,
    Source: UNESCO (http://www.unesco-ihe.org/Education/Short-
    courses/Online-courses/IWRM-as-a-Tool-for-Adaptation-to-
    Climate-Change).
    BOX 26.7
    Adaptivewatermanagement(AWM)traininghelps
    groupstofaceuncertaintyandrisk
    Example1:TrainingeducatorshowtoteachAWM
    TheUNWaterDecadeProgrammeonCapacity
    Development(UNWDPC)andtheEuropeanUnion
    IntegratedProject,NewApproachestoAdaptiveWater
    ManagementunderUncertainty,ranaworkshopinNew
    Delhiin2008totraineducatorstodisseminatethe
    NeWaterGWSP(NewApproachestoUncertaintyinWater
    ManagementGlobalWaterSystemProject)curriculumon
    AWM.Theaimwastoencouragethewatermanagersand
    policy-makersoftomorrowtoadoptanAWMapproachto
    climate-proongWSSstrategiesinthefaceofincreasing
    climate-relateduncertainty.Bytheendoftheworkshop,
    participantshaddrafteddesignsforadaptingtheirwater
    andenvironmentalmanagementstudiescurricula.
    Lecturersandeducatorsfromdevelopingcountriesin
    LatinAmericaAfricaandAsiaweretrainedbytrainers
    fromUNWDPC,theUniversityofOsnabrckinGermany,
    andAlterraWageningenUniversityandResearchCentre
    intheNetherlandsinthedidacticsofpassingontheskills,
    knowledgeandattitudesrequiredforAWM.
    Example2:IWRMasaToolforadaptingtoclimatechange
    TheInstituteofWaterEducation(UNESCOIHE)ofersan
    onlinecourseforprofessionalsactivelyinvolvedinthewa-
    terandclimatesectors.Suchprofessionalsincludelocal,
    regionalandnationalpolicy-makers;NGOstafandrep-
    resentativesoftheprivatesectordealingwithadaptation;
    andjunioruniversitylecturersandscientists.Thecourse
    objectivesaretopromote:
    UnderstandingoftheconceptoflntegratedWater
    ResourcesManagement(IWRM)inrelationtoclimate
    change;
    Understandingoftheclimatesystemandthehydrologi-
    calcycle;
    Awarenessoftheimpactofclimatechangeonsociety
    Understandingofhowtodealwithriskanduncertainty
    and
    Understandingofhowtoadapttowaterchangesand
    climatechange.
    Source: NeWater (n.d.).
    BOX 26.8
    Adaptiveriverbasinmanagement:TheNeWater
    onlineteachingcurriculum
    Acurriculumforadaptiveriverbasinmanagementwas
    developedaspartofthetrainingandeducationac-
    tivitiesoftheNewApproachestoUncertaintyinWater
    Management(NeWater)project.NeWatersexplicitaimis
    toprovideanefectiveoutreachmechanismforscientic
    results,methodologiesandtoolstostakeholdersinthe
    watersector,includinguniversityeducators,waterman-
    agementpractitionersandpolicy-makers.Thecurriculum
    hasbeenimplementedbytheInstituteofEnvironmental
    SystemsResearchattheUniversityofOsnabrck,in
    Germany,atAlterraWageningenUniversityandResearch
    CentreintheNetherlandsandaspartoftheGlobalWater
    SystemProject.Detailsontheprogrammecanbefound
    atwww.newatereducation.nl
    introducedforthewaterworkforce(especiallyinde-
    velopingcountries).
    Investmentininfrastructureshouldbecomplement-
    edbytrainingtechnicalstafandpolicy-makersto
    maintainandmanageinvestments.
    CHAPTER26 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 594
    tofacilitatejustication,explanation,persuasionand
    connectednessamongpeers.(Schenketal.,2006).A
    usefulindicatorforknowledgefacilitationinthewater
    sectoristhepresenceofformalandinformalnetworks
    amongsectorspecialistsandpeers.Suchnetworks
    areofgreatimportancewhenitcomestoexchang-
    ingknowledgebetweengovernmentandotheractors
    inthesectorLuijendijkandLincklaenArrins
    Networkscantakemanyforms,forexample:
    Professional,formalassociationsofpeoplewitha
    specictechnicalbackgroundorexpertiseforex-
    ample,associationsofwaterexperts,socialscien-
    tistsoreconomistssuchastheInternationalWater
    AssociationandtheInternationalWaterResources
    Association.
    Looselyorganizednetworksofindividualspecial-
    istswhoareoftencentredaroundapublicationor
    newsletterforexample,journalssuchastheIRCs
    Waterlines.
    Communities-of-practice(CoPs)thatareorganized
    foraspeciedtask.Theseusuallyoperatewith-
    ingiventimeframes,haveinternalworkagendas
    andagreedoutputssuchaspublicationsorpolicy
    notes.TheWorldBankUNDPWaterandSanitation
    ProgrammehasmanagedCoPsontopicsranging
    fromhandwashingtolow-costsewagedisposal.
    Networksofgovernment,semi-governmentand
    non-governmentalorganizationsthatcooperate
    onadeclaredsubjectandthatoftenreceivefund-
    ingformeetings,research,publications,workshops,
    andoperationalcosts.ExamplesareCap-Net,which
    isaUNDPinitiativethatconnectsabout25educa-
    tionalandcapacitybuildinginstitutions;PoWER,
    UNESCO-IHEspartnershipforwatereducationand
    research,isaglobalnetworkofabout30research
    andeducationinstitutions;Informalandsocialnet-
    worksthataredrivenbyculturalorsocialconsidera-
    tionsbutthatmayoftenbeinstrumentalinbringing
    togetherpeoplewhocansharebothexplicitand
    tacitknowledge.
    26.4.3Ownershipasakeytoefectiveness
    Watermanagementagenciesclosethedooronop-
    portunitiesforefectiveintegratedwatermanagement
    whentheydontgiveavoicetorelativelypowerless
    groups,suchaswomenandindigenouspeople.
    Efortstoensuretheownershipoflocalstakehold-
    ersareoftenabsent.Thelackofbroadcommitmentis
    systematicallyidentiedasamainreasonwhyinvest-
    mentsandprogrammesfail.Forexample,manyWSS
    programmesindevelopingcountriesthroughoutthe
    1980sand1990sprovedinefectualbecausetheben-
    eciariescouldnotordidnotwanttouseormaintain
    thenewwatersupplysystemsandlatrines.Numerous
    projectsarrangedforexpertstoassistinprojectprep-
    aration,butsuchexpertsweregenerallynevermain-
    streamedintotheengineeringorganizations.
    Internationaldevelopmentaidtoooftenprovedinef-
    fectivebecauseprogrammeswerenotwellembed-
    dedlocally.AftertheParisDeclarationin2005andthe
    1hirdHighLevelForumonAidLfectivenessinAccra
    in2008,itisnowthenormforaidrecipientstoforge
    theirownnationaldevelopmentstrategies,which
    ensurethebroaderownershipofpoliciesandpro-
    grammes(OECD2005,2008).TheIWRMconceptem-
    phasizesthatefectiveandsustainablewatermanage-
    mentrequirestheexplicitinvolvementofstakeholders
    inplanninganddecision-making(seetheGlobalWater
    PartnershipToolboxatwww.gwptoolbox.org).The
    BOX 26.9
    Strengtheninglocalownership:TheLakeVictoria
    RegionWaterandSanitationInitiative
    Twenty-sevencapacitydevelopmentinterventionssupport
    theUNHABl1A1LakeVictoriaPegionWaterandSanitation
    lnitiativeLVWA1SANl1hisinitiativewhichishelping
    Kenya1anzaniaandUgandatoachievetheirHDCsfor
    WSS,isanexampleofthemodernintegratedapproach.
    1heLakeVictoriacatchmentprovideslivelihoodsfor
    aboutone-thirdofthecombinedpopulationsofthethree
    countries(30millionpeople).Mostoftheregionsrap-
    idlygrowingurbancentresareexperiencingunplanned
    growth,poorinfrastructure,andafragileecosystem.
    Pipedwaterleakageandlowbillingratesareusualand
    sanitationandsolidwastecollectionarepoor.
    Progress to date. Initialinvestmentshavebeencompleted:
    keywaterinfrastructurehasbeenrehabilitatedorexpand-
    ed,publiclatrineshavebeenbuilt,micro-creditfor
    householdlatrineshasbeenprovided,andsolid-waste
    removalequipmenthasbeensuppliedallresultinginbet-
    terperformancebythewaterutilitiesintheprojecttowns.
    TheCDdesignrespondstotheon-the-groundissues.
    Multi-disciplinaryteamsconductedin-depthinterviews
    withthestakeholdersanddesigned27tailor-madeCDin-
    terventions.Theseincludedinterventionsonenvironmental
    services,pro-poorgovernance,equityandlocaleconomic
    development.Allconcludedwithapersonalactionplan
    thatrequireseachparticipantorgrouptoidentifytheactiv-
    itiesthatarewithintheirauthorityandcapabilityandthat
    willcontributetoimprovingwaterenvironmentalservices.
    WWDR4 595 DEVELOPINGKNOWLEDGEANDCAPACITY
    EuropeanUnionsWaterFrameworkDirectiveman-
    datesthatriverbasinmanagementplansinwhichthe
    roleoftheinformedandempoweredstakeholdersare
    treatedascritical,shouldbedevelopedforallriverba-
    sins.TargetedCDprogrammesmaythenberequired
    toapproachandpreparethesegroups(Box26.9).
    Inarapidlychangingworld,oureconomiesandwell-
    beingincreasinglydependonaccurateforecastingof
    futureeventsandtrends.Thereisagrowingneedto
    shapepoliciesthatbestreectthecoursesofaction
    thataremostappropriatetechnologicallyaswellas
    representingthepreferencesofsociety.Challengesof
    broadsocialsignicancesuchasresponsestoclimate
    changeandpublichealththreatsrequirethatsocietyis
    informedandeducated.Consultationwithaninformed
    societycanleadtopoliciesthatareownedbysoci-
    etyanddiligentlyimplementedbyeverybodyinthat
    society.
    26.4.4Informationandcommunicationstechnology
    (ICT)
    Thegeneration,manipulationandcommunicationof
    informationareessentialpartsofthedecision-making
    processfororganizationsinvolvedinwatermanage-
    ment.ICTisrecognizedasastrategicenablerinthe
    processofdevelopinginnovativesolutionstoaddress
    problemssuchaswaterscarcity.ICTalsofacilitates
    theanalysisofenvironmentaldatasothatresearch-
    ersandclimatologistscanbuildmoreaccuratemodels
    forweatherforecasting(ITU,2010).Themainareasin
    whichICTcouldplayapivotalroleinwatermanage-
    mentareshowninFigure26.2.
    Thecostoftraditionalface-to-facetrainingcoursesand
    thetimetheyconsumesignicantlyrestrictCDplans.
    TherapidadvanceofICThasmadeaccesstoknowledge
    througheLearningeasiermuchmorereadilyavailable
    andcheapereLearningorpreferablyblended learning,
    3

    hashelpedtodevelopthecapacityofwatermanage-
    mentstakeholders.Itdoesthisthroughitsuseofonline
    training,onlineuniversitycourses,multimediamateri-
    alsforpublicawareness,etc.TheUNWaterDecade
    ProgrammeonCapacityDevelopmenthasdeveloped
    anonlinesystemcalledUNWAIS+(UNWaterActivity
    InformationSystem)whichincludesaneTrainingpool
    (www.ais.unwater.org).
    Mobileandwirelesstechnologiesarealsoprovid-
    ingachanceforuserstolearnremotely.Thismakes
    mobilelearningmLearningevenmoreattractive
    thaneLearningHobiletechnologyappliedtoCD
    activitiesoferscost-efectivelearningopportunities.
    Mobiledeviceswithexpandingcapabilitiesarenow
    availableatsignicantlyreducedprices(UNDESA,
    2007).
    ThedepartmentofEngineeringHydrologyatthe
    RWTHAachenUniversityinGermanyisoferingsever-
    alonlinecoursescoveringdiferentwatermanagement
    FIGURE 26.2
    Majorareasforinformationandcommunicationstechnologyinwatermanagement
    Source: ITU (2010).
    Mappingofwaterresourcesandweatherforecasting
    Pemote sensing from satellites
    ln-situ terrestrial sensing system
    Ceographical information system
    Sensor networks and lnternet
    Assetmanagementforthewater
    distributionnetwork
    Buried asset identifcation and electronic tagging
    Smart pipes
    Just-in-time repairs/real time risk assessment
    Settingupearlywarningsystemsand
    meetingwaterdemandincitiesofthefuture
    Pain/storm water harvesting
    Flood management
    Hanaged aquifer recharge
    Smart metering
    Process knowledge systems
    Justintimeirrigationinagricultureandlandscaping
    Ceographical information system
    Sensor networks and lnternet
    CHAPTER26 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 596
    relatedtopics(Box26.10)aswellaswaterexercises
    andmobilephoneappquizzes.
    26.4.5Sociallearning:Learningtogethertomanage
    together
    Sociallearninghasbeendescribedasanalternative
    totransmissiveexpert-basedteaching.Itisaformof
    community-basedlearning(Capra,2007)thattakes
    placeinnetworksorCoPsthatareinuencedbythe
    governancestructureinwhichtheyareembedded.
    Sociallearningrequiresrelativelystableinstitutional
    settingswhicharenotrigidorinexible.Suchcondi-
    tionsaredevelopedthroughcontinuedprocessesof
    sociallearninginwhichmulti-levelstakeholdersare
    connectedthroughnetworksthatallowthemtode-
    velopthecapacityandtrustnecessarytocollaborate
    inavarietyofrelationshipsbothformalandinformal
    (Pahl-Wostl,2007).
    Sociallearningsupportsthecapacitydevelopment
    ofmanagerstoaddressuncertaintyandriskmoreef-
    fectively.Successfulsociallearning(learninginand
    withsocialgroupsthroughinteraction)leadstonew
    knowledge,sharedunderstanding,trustand,ultimately,
    collectiveactionLearningmaytakeplaceatdiferent
    levelsfromincremental improvements(single-loop)
    throughtoreframingwhereassumptionsarerevis-
    ited(double-loop)andtransformingwhereunderlying
    valuesandworldviewsmaybechanged(triple-loop)
    (Pahl-Wostl,2007).Box26.11presentsagoodpractice
    caseforsociallearningimplementationthatenhanced
    adaptivewatermanagement.
    26.5Thewayforward
    Thereisalackofbestpracticeatalllevelsinanalys-
    ingandassessingadaptivecapacityforrisk.There
    isaneedtoconductregularcapacityassessments
    includingassessingthecapacitiesoftheworkforce,
    theinstitutions,thekeyagencies,thepolicyand
    Source: TOTWAT project (2011).
    BOX 26.10
    TheOnlineTrainingSystemforWaterProfessionals
    (TOTWAT)
    TOTWATisanEU-fundedprojectundertheumbrella
    oftheTEMPUSprogrammecoordinatedbytheRWTH
    AachenUniversityinGermany.Theprojectaimstodevel-
    opaneLearningsystemforwaterprofessionalsinLgypt
    Morethantentrainingcourseshavebeendevelopedin
    theeldsofmodelling,watermanagement,socio-eco-
    nomics,environmentalengineeringandinterdiscipli-
    narywatermanagement.Theelectroniccontentsofthe
    coursesaresuitableforusebyotherwaterinstitutionsin
    theMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregion.Userfeedback
    showsthatsuchonlinetrainingcourseshaveasignicant
    impactontheperformanceofwaterengineers,andmore
    thanofusersindicatedthatithelpedthemtoshare
    knowledgeandlearnfromeachother.
    Source: Lannerstad and Molden (2009).
    BOX 26.11
    SociallearningandAWMintheSouthIndianLower
    Bhavani
    1heLowerBhavaniProjectLBPhasanhec-
    tarecatchmentareaintheSouthIndianstateofTamil
    Nadu.Oneofthemostsignicantuncertaintyfactors
    hereisrainfallvariability.Farmersfrequentlyhavetocope
    withunpredictablesuppliesofwaterandseasonswith-
    outrainfall.Thelarge-scaledevelopmentofwellsinthe
    areashowshowfarmershavesuccessfullymanagedto
    increasewateravailabilityduringseasonswhenthereis
    nosupply.Theyhavealsolearnedtoswiftlyadjusttheir
    croppingpatternsinlinewiththehighlyunpredictable
    variabilityofseasonalcanalwatersupply,andhaveeven
    adaptedwhattheygrowtocopewithentirelyrain-fed
    conditions.
    Theentirechainofsystemchangesshowsthatsocial
    learningistakingplacewithintheLBPsystem1hevari-
    ousactorshavelearnedhowtooptimizethesystemwith-
    inthelimitsofthetechnicalinfrastructure,thecapacity
    ofthereservoir,thedischargecapacityofthecanaland
    theunpredictablesupplyofwaterdictatedthebyerratic
    rainfall.Thewayfarmershavelearnedfromandbeenin-
    spiredbyeachotherareexamplesofsociallearningbe-
    tweenactors.Fromalong-termperspective,alltheactors
    intheLBPsystemhavelearnedfromtheenvironmental
    responsesandfromeachothersbehaviour.Togetherthey
    havecontributedtothealterationofgovernancestruc-
    turesandhavedevelopednewpracticeswithoutbeing
    boundbytheoriginaltechnicalinfrastructure.Allactors,
    thus,livewithchange,butfewappeartorememberwhat
    causedthechangeinthesystemandwhyitchanged.
    1heAWHanalysisshowsthattheLBPsystemhasfulflled
    thecriteriaofacomplexadaptivesystemagainandagain.
    Severalchangeshavetakenplaceandearliermistakes
    andfailureshavebeenaddressedstep-by-steptoreach
    thepresentcomplexhumanenvironmentaltechnological
    system.Sociallearningtakesplaceatbothsystemlevel
    andwithindividualfarmers.Theuncertaintyfactorshave
    beenconsideredoneatatimeduringthesystemchange
    cyclesandhavebeenincludedinthesystemdesign.
    WWDR4 597 DEVELOPINGKNOWLEDGEANDCAPACITY
    regulatoryframeworks,andthemainstakeholders.
    Thereisaneedtoidentifyrealisticcapacitydevel-
    opmentprioritiesthatcanbeimplementedwithina
    practicaltimeframeandwhichfocusonownership.
    Thereisaneedtoassessthecapabilityofeduca-
    tionsystemsandprepareadequatenumbersof
    sectorprofessionalswhohavetheappropriateskills
    mix.Thisisparticularlyimportantformanagerial
    andgovernanceskillssothatthereistheabilityto
    prepareandcarryoutinvestments.Inthisprocess,it
    isnecessarytopromotecollaborationandcoopera-
    tionbetweenorganizationsandwaterandeduca-
    tionexperts.
    Thewatersectorneedstoengageindialoguewith
    societyaboutinvestmentinitiativesandmajorpoli-
    cies.Thisensuresthatdecisionsreectactualex-
    pectationsandfosterownership.Themedianeeds
    tobetaughtaboutwaterissuessothattheircapac-
    itytoreportonsuchissuesisimproved.
    Sociallearningshouldbepromotedtobuildthe
    adaptabilityofallstakeholdersinvolvedinmaking
    decisionsaboutwatermanagement.Thishelpsto
    increaseexibilityandresponsivenesswhendealing
    withriskanduncertainty.
    ICTshouldbeusedmoretoreducecostsandofer
    moreexiblelearningopportunities.Investments
    madeinhighqualitylearningmaterialsforadaptive
    watermanagementcanbeusedbywaterprofes-
    sionalsandstudentsacrossawidearea.

    Notes
    1 Forexample,ThorkilsenandDynesen(2001)describehowan
    internet-basedinteractivefacilitywasatthecoreofabroad
    knowledgesharingandcommunicationeforttomusterthe
    supportofpoliticiansandthecommunityandattractfunding
    foroneofEuropeslargestandmostcontroversialinfrastructure
    projects,therailandroadbridgeandtunnelacrosstheresund
    StraitlinkingDenmarktoSweden.
    2 ThisworkshopwasjointlyrunduringtheUNESCOWorld
    ESDConferenceinBonn,Germanyin2009bytheUNESCO
    InternationalHydrologicalProgramme(IHP);theGerman
    FederalMinistryfortheEnvironment,NatureConservationand
    NuclearSafety(BMU);andtheUNWaterDecadeProgramme
    onCapacityDevelopment(UNWDPC).Itspurposewasto
    promoteexchangebetweenwaterandeducationstakeholders
    bylinkingthetwoUNDecadestheUNDecadeofEducation
    forSustainableDevelopment(UNDESD)andtheUN
    lnternationalDecadeforActionWaterforLife
    3 Blendedlearningisamixofdiferentleaningenvironments,e.g.
    eLearningandfacetofacelearning

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    UNISDR

    AuthorsandcontributorsBinaDesai(ProgrammeOfcer),JohnHarding(Head,
    Policy)andJustinGinnetti(AssociateProgrammeOfcer)
    CHAPTER 27
    Water-related disasters
    UNPhoto/MarcoDormino

    Countries in all regions have been successful in strengthening their capacities to address
    the mortality risk associated with major weather-related hazards such as oods. Despite the
    increasing number of people living in oodplains, mortality risk relative to population size
    is now trending down. In East Asia and the Pacic mortality risk is now at a third of its 1980
    level (UNISDR, 2011).
    In contrast, countries have had a far more difcult time addressing successfully other risks.
    Economic loss risk due to tropical cyclones and oods is trending up because the rapidly
    increasing exposure of economic assets is outstripping reductions in vulnerability.
    Water management should actively engage in shaping national agendas that reduce the
    risk from natural hazards and assist adaptation to climate change, in support of a coherent
    planning process that targets national and local sustainable development plans.
    Disaster risk reduction needs to be an integral part of integrated water resources
    management (IWRM) to enhance and efectively protect water investments and to
    contribute to reducing risks. Reducing the risk of oods and drought, and in particular,
    promoting development practices that reduce the risk of oods and drought, will contribute
    to governments eforts to adapt to climate change. One of the key challenges faced by
    decision-makers today is the need to increase understanding of which forms of investment
    are efective in reducing the risk of oods and drought in the water management as well as
    in the broader development arena.
    27.1Introduction
    Thischapteraddressestherisksassociatedwithwater-
    relateddisasters,inparticular,oodsanddrought,and
    contributestothebroadertopicsofriskanduncertainty.
    Italsoaddressesclimatechangeissuesbyexamining
    theimpactsofclimatechangeonextremeeventtrends,
    inparticular,naturalhazards(againfocusingonoods
    anddrought),aswellasadaptationapproachesbased
    uponthereductionofriskrelatedtowater-relatedhaz-
    ards.Itfocusesonpolicyresponsesandactionsand
    theirefectiveness,describingsolutions,theirapplicabil-
    ityandtheirrelationtorisk.Thiscomponent,alongwith
    themonitoringofrisktrendsforoodsanddrought,will
    bebuiltupmoresystematicallyinfuturereports.
    27.1.1Disasterimpacts
    Themostsignicantwater-relateddisasters,suchas
    oods,includeashoods,tropicalcyclonesandother
    storms,andoceanstormsurges(Box27.1).Otherre-
    latedevents,includingthosetriggeredbyearthquakes,
    comprisetsunamis,landslidesthatdamrivers,break-
    ageofleveesanddams,glaciallakeoutbursts,coastal
    oodingassociatedwithabnormalorrisingsealevels,
    andepidemicsandpestoutbreaksassociatedwithtoo
    littleortoomuchwater.
    Onewater-relateddisasterthatseldommakesitinto
    theimpactsstatisticsisdrought.Since1900,more
    than11millionpeoplehavebeenkilledandmorethan
    2billionafectedbydrought,morethananyother
    physicalhazard(UNISDR,2011).However,thesegures
    areprobablylowerthantherealtotalasfewcountries
    systematicallyreportandrecorddroughtlossesand
    impacts(Box27.2),whilethosethatdo,suchasthe
    UnitedStatesofAmerica,reportonlyinsuredlosses
    (Figure27.1).
    Source: CRED (2011).
    Water-relateddisastersaccountfor90%ofallnaturalhazards,andtheirfrequencyandintensityisgenerallyrising.Some373
    naturaldisasterskilledover296,800peoplein2010,afectednearly208millionothers,andcostnearlyUS$110billion.
    In2010,extremedisastersincludedstormXynthiainWesternEurope(February)andthespateofheavyoodinginFrance
    (June).Unusually,AsiaexperiencedfewerdisasterdeathsthatyearthantheAmericasandEurope,accountingforjust4.7%
    oftotalmortality.However,itremainsthemostgreatlyafectedcontinent:some89%ofallpeopleafectedbydisastersin
    2010livedinAsia,accordingtotheCentreforResearchontheEpidemiologyofDisasters(CRED).
    Ofthelistoftoptendisasterswiththehighestdeathcounts,veoccurredinAsia.InIndonesiafromMaytoAugust,oods
    killed1,691peopleandafurther1,765werekilledbymudslides,landslidesorrockfallstriggeredbyheavyrainsandoods
    inAugust.InPakistan,massiveoodscausedbyheavyrainsinthenorth-westfromJulytoAugustcoveredone-fthofthe
    countryslandmass,andcausedthedeathsofnearly2,000people.
    InChina,oodsandlandslidesduringthesummerareestimatedtohavecostUS$18billion,whilethePakistanoodscost
    US$9.5billion.Yeteconomiclossesin2010stilldonotsurpassthoseof2005,whendamagefromhurricanesKatrina,Rita
    andWilmaaloneamountedtoUS$139billion.
    BOX 27.1
    Extremewater-relateddisastersin2010
    Summary of ood disasters, 19802008
    Number of events 2 887
    Number of people killed 195 843
    Average number of people killed per year 6 753
    Number of people afected 2 809 481 489
    Average number of people afected per year 96 878 672
    Economic damage (US$ 1 000) 397 333 885
    Economic damage per year (US$ 1 000) 13 701 168
    Source: EM-DAT (2010).
    CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS CHAPTER27 602
    WWDR4 603 WATER-RELATEDDISASTERS
    27.1.2Water-relateddisastersimpactondevelopment
    Waterhazardsmaybeanaturalpartofourearthsys-
    tem,butthedisastersthatsometimesarisefromthem
    shouldberecognizedasstronglyinterlinkedwithpar-
    ticularhumanvulnerabilitiesofourownmaking.Key
    factorsthatincreaseboththeintensityofthehazard
    aswellastherelatedvulnerabilityincludeenvironmen-
    taldegradation;settlementsinmarginalhazard-prone
    lands;inadequatebuildingsandwatermanagement
    systems;lackofriskawarenessandinformation;pov-
    ertyandlowcapacitiesforprevention,preparedness
    andearlywarning;andlackofpoliticalandinstitution-
    alcommitmenttoreducingrisks.
    Disasterriskmanifestsitselfashighimpactcatastro-
    phes,aswellasanincreasingnumberofhighfrequen-
    cy,lowerrelativeseveritylosses,almostallofwhich
    areassociatedwithwater-relatedhazards.Theriskof
    lossesfromthesehazardsisafactorofsocialandeco-
    nomicdevelopment(WWAP,2009).
    Theseimpactsareanimpedimenttoachievingthe
    MillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs),becausedisas-
    tersregularlydestroyaccumulateddevelopmentgains,
    intermsofdamageandlossestoinfrastructureand
    otherassets.Indevelopingcountries,theselossesare
    generallynotinsuredandimplyaconstantleakageof
    resourcesfromdevelopmentbudgetstodealwithre-
    liefandreconstruction,aswellasthesteadyerosionof
    livelihoods,renderingvulnerablecountriesevenmore
    vulnerable.
    Forexample,annualaveragedisasterlossesinMexico,
    inthebuiltenvironmentalone,havebeenestimatedat
    US$2.9billionperyear(ERN-AL,2010).Currentanaly-
    sisofMDGmonitoringsuggeststhatincrementalinter-
    nationalaidofUS$35billionwillberequiredannually
    from2010until2015toraisethestandardoflivingof
    thenearly1billionpeoplewholivebelowtheUS$1.25
    percapitaincomeline,aswellastoachievetheother
    MDGs(UNDP,2010).NearlyUS$8billionisrequiredto
    provideaccesstosafedrinkingwatertothosewithout
    access.Whilethecurrentnancialcrisisisconstraining
    abilitiestoincreaseaidows,billionsofUS$ofdevel-
    opmentfundingarebeingre-directedeveryyearto
    restoredevelopmentassetsdamagedordestroyedby
    disasters.
    Lossesinagriculturalproductionareparticularlysig-
    nicant(Box27.3).TheUnitedNationsEconomic
    CommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
    FIGURE 27.1
    Recordeddroughtfatalitiesperyear,19902009
    Mozambiqueisoneofthefewcountrieswithadisas-
    terdatabasethatsystematicallyrecordsdroughtlosses
    (INGC,2010).Here,therealscaleofdroughtimpactsbe-
    comesvisible:since1990,8millionhaofcropshavebeen
    damaged(ofwhichhalfweredestroyed)duringdrought
    events,1,040peoplehavebeenkilled,andanadditional
    11.5millionhavebeenafected.
    BOX 27.2
    Datafromasystematicregistrationofdisasterin
    Mozambique
    Source: UNISDR (2011).
    1990
    1991
    1992
    1993
    1994
    1995
    1996
    1997
    1998
    1999
    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007
    2008
    2009
    30 25 20 15 10 5 0
    Numberoffatalities(thousands)
    CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS CHAPTER27 604
    (ECLAC)estimatesthatannuallossesofUS$1.3billion
    havebeenassociatedwithdroughtandotherclimate
    relatedhazardsinCentralAmericasince1975(ECLAC,
    2002).Thisrepresentsmorethan10%oftheregions
    averageannualGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)and
    nearly30%ofitsgrosscapitalformation(Zapataand
    Madrigal,2009).
    27.1.3Reducingtheriskofdisastersisintrinsicto
    developmentpractices
    TheGlobal Assessment Reports (GARs)(UNISDR,2009,
    2011)demonstratethatexposureofpeopleandas-
    setstooodsanddroughtislargelydeterminedby
    historicalandongoinginvestmentsininfrastructure
    andinurbanandeconomicdevelopment.Inthecase
    ofsmallislands,oftentheentireterritoryisexposed.
    Levelsofdisaster-relatedriskaresociallyconstruct-
    ed,oftenoverlongperiods,bylayersofdecisionsand
    investmentsbyindividuals,households,communities,
    privatebusinessesandgovernments.Physicalhazards
    maybemodied.Forexample,adecisiontodrainwet-
    landsmayincreaseoodhazardinacitydownstream.
    Similarly,theamountofpeopleandassetsexposed
    mayincreaseduetodecisionstolocateeconomicand
    urbandevelopmentinhazard-proneareas.However,
    choosingtoliveinhazard-proneareasmaybetheless-
    erevilforpoorhouseholds.Olderpeopleandwomen
    areparticularlyvulnerabletothesefactors.
    Whilepublicinvestmentusuallyrepresentsonlyasmall
    proportionoftotalinvestmentinanycountry14%on
    averageandseldommorethan20%(UNISDR,2009)
    governmentsplayakeyroleinshapingriskconstruc-
    tionprocesses,throughtheefectivenessofplanning
    andregulationaswellasthroughtheirowninvest-
    mentsininfrastructureandpublicservices.
    TheGAR(UNISDR,2009)providedfurtherevidence
    thatthepooraremoreexposedandvulnerabletonat-
    uralhazards.Insomecountries,theareasthatexperi-
    encemostdisastersareactuallythosewiththemost
    dynamiceconomicandurbangrowth,orwithpros-
    perousruraleconomies.However,thestudiesinitiated
    inthecontextoftheabovereportprovideevidence
    toshowthatcommunitiesinpoorareasloseahigher
    proportionoftheirassets,conrmingthattheyhave
    higherlevelsofvulnerability(Table27.1).
    27.2Anatomyofdisasters:Trendsinood
    anddroughtrisk
    Observationofoodanddroughtriskpatternsand
    trendsatthegloballevelpermitsvisualizationofthe
    majorconcentrationsofrisk.Italsoenablesidentica-
    tionofgeographicdistributionofdisasterriskacross
    countries,trendsovertimeandthemajordriversof
    thesepatternsandtrends.
    Theanalysispresentedinthischapterwasdevel-
    opedbyUNEP/GRIDEuropePREVIEW(Projectfor
    RiskEvaluationVulnerabilityInformationandEarly
    Warning),assistedbyaninterdisciplinarygroupofre-
    searchersfromaroundtheworld.
    Globaldataondroughtimpactsremainsuncertain.
    However,localandregionalexamplesprovideabetterun-
    derstandingoftheimpactsofdrought:
    lntheCaribbeanduringthedroughtthe
    bananaharvestonDominicadecreasedfrom2010to
    2009by43%,agriculturalproductioninStVincentand
    theGrenadineswas20%belowhistoricaverages,while
    inAntiguaandBarbuda,onionandtomatocropyields
    declinedby25%and30%,respectively(UNISDR,2011).
    AustraliaexperiencedlossesofUSbilliondur-
    ingthe20022003drought,reducingnationalGDPby
    1.6%;two-thirdsofthelosseswereagricultural,while
    theremainingone-thirdwasattributedtoknock-onim-
    pactsinothereconomicsectors(Horridgeetal.,2005).
    Duringthedroughtlndiasfoodgrainproduction
    declinedby29milliontonnes,from212milliontonnesin
    2001to183milliontonnesin2002(Shawetal.,2010).
    DuetoaseveredroughtinSyriaduringthe
    growingseason,75%ofthecountrysfarmersexperi-
    encedtotalcropfailure(Erianetal.,2010);andmore
    thanayearafterthedroughtended,Syriaslivestock
    populationwasestimatedtobe50%belowthepre
    droughtlevel(Erianetal.,2010).
    lnCearaBrazilagriculturaldroughtriskisconcentrat-
    edamongsmallholderfarmerswhodonotholdwater
    rightsorhaveaccesstoCearasirrigationandwater
    storageinfrastructure,andwhoselivelihoodsdepend
    entirelyonrainfed,drylandagriculture.Asaresult,GDP
    percapitaoftheruralcommunitiesisapproximately
    one-thirdthatoftheurbansettlementssituatedalong
    thecoast,andHumanDevelopmentIndexvaluesofthe
    ruraldistrictsarebelow0.65,comparedto0.699for
    BrazilasawholeSavioHartinsUNDP
    BOX 27.3
    Exampleofdroughtimpacts
    Source: UNISDR (2011).
    WWDR4 605 WATER-RELATEDDISASTERS
    TABLE 27.1
    Summaryofcasestudyndingsonthesocialdistributionofdisasterloss
    Country Findings
    Burkino Faso
    The 19841985 drought afected the poorest third of a sample of rural households by 10% more
    than the wealthier third: the former experienced crop-income losses of 69% versus a 58% drop
    for the latter.
    Madagascar
    Tropical cyclone impacts led to a reduction of 11% in the volume of agricultural production of
    the poorest 20% households, compared to a 6% reduction in the case of the richest 20%.
    Mexico
    Municipalities with the highest number of loss reports also had large percentages of their
    population with high or very high levels of marginality, according to an Index of Municipal
    Marginality developed by the National Population Council; for example, Acapulco (54.4%),
    Coatzocoalcos (54.1%), Juarez (45%), Tapachula (54.1%), Tijuana (31.3%) or Veracruz (31%).
    Municipalities with high or very high levels of marginality had high proportions of damaged and
    destroyed housing. In one-third of these municipalities, between 10% and 25% of the housing
    stock was damaged or destroyed, while in another third this proportion was more than 25%.
    Over 20% had more than 50% of their housing stock afected. In contrast, only 8% of the housing
    stock was afected in municipalities with low or very low levels of marginality.
    Nepal
    Areas afected by oods tended to have lower poverty rates and higher per capita expenditures.
    Flooding incidence and impacts are concentrated in the highly productive lowland agricultural plains
    of the Terai belt in south-eastern Nepal. As ooding contributes to the soil fertility of the region, it
    also contributes to the wealth of the area. Areas afected by landslides tend to have higher poverty
    and mortality rates. Landslide impacts are heavily concentrated in districts in mountainous western
    Nepal with marginal rainfed agriculture, where the countrys rural poverty is concentrated.
    Orissa, India
    A statistically signicant relationship was found between families living in houses with earth
    walls and thatch roofs (typically the housing of the poor) and those most afected by tropical
    cyclone, ood, re and lightning. The incidence of extensive risk loss reports was higher in
    the central-eastern coastal region, where there are higher levels of urbanization and relatively
    afuent agricultural areas on oodplains and deltas. Mortality in extensive risk disasters was
    concentrated in the districts of Bolangir, Kalahandi and Koraput in southern Orissa, which
    are characterized by repeated droughts, oods, food insecurity, chronic income poverty and
    localized near-famine conditions.
    Peru
    Rural households that reported a disaster impact in 2002 had on average less access to public
    services, were less well integrated into the market, and had a higher proportion of agricultural
    income.
    Sri Lanka
    A very strong correlation was found between the proportion of the population living below the
    poverty line and the number of houses damaged due to oods; a less strong but signicant
    correlation was found between this population group and houses damaged due to landslides.
    This reinforces the case that exposed human settlements and unsafe, vulnerable housing are
    poverty factors that increase the likelihood of sufering greater loss due to natural hazard.
    Tamil Nadu, India
    Mortality in areas with manifestations of extensive ood risk was higher in areas with vulnerable
    housing. Similarly, tropical cyclone housing damage was inversely related to the literacy rate. If
    literacy is taken to be a proxy for poverty, again this indicates that the poor were more likely to
    sufer housing damage typically because their houses are more vulnerable or situated in more
    exposed locations. Mortality among the socially and economically excluded scheduled castes
    was also higher in blocks with a high proportion of vulnerable housing.
    Source: UNISDR (2009, table 3.5, p. 80).
    Figure27.2showstheupdatedglobaldistributionof
    mortalityriskforthreeweatherrelatedhazards:tropi-
    calcyclones,oods,andlandslidesprovokedbyrains
    UNEP,2010).Theareasofhighestriskvisiblecorre-
    spondtoareaswhereconcentrationsofvulnerable
    peopleareexposedtosevereandfrequentmajorhaz-
    ards.Floodmortalityriskishighestinruralareaswith
    adenserandrapidlygrowingpopulationincountries
    withweakgovernance.
    CHAPTER27 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 606
    Acrossallweatherrelatedhazards,countrieswithlow
    GDPandweakgovernancetendtofeaturedrastical-
    lyhighermortalityriskthanwealthiercountrieswith
    stronggovernance.
    27.2.1Floodrisktrends
    Disasterriskforoodshasbeencalculatedforlarge
    ruraloodevents,althoughtheriskcalculationsdo
    notincludeashoodsorurbanoodingfromin-
    adequatedrainage.Thegeographicaldistributionof
    oodmortalityriskmirrorsthatforexposure(exposed
    assets).ItisheavilyconcentratedinAsia,especially
    inBangladesh,ChinaandIndia.Betweenthemthese
    countriesconcentrate75%ofthemodelledannu-
    alglobalmortality.VietNamalsohashighabsolute
    andrelativeoodrisks.Thetoptencountriesatrisk
    ofoods(basedonnumberofliveslost)areIndia,
    Bangladesh,China,VietNam,Cambodia,Myanmar,
    Sudan,DemocraticPeoplesRepublicofKorea,
    AfghanistanandPakistan(UNEP,2010).
    Between1970and2010theworldspopulationin-
    creasedby87%(from3.7billionto6.9billion).Inthe
    sameperiod,theannualaveragepopulationexposedto
    oodincreasedby112%(from33.3to70.4millionper
    year)(UN-Habitat,2010).Relativelyspeaking,moreand
    morepeoplearelivinginoodplains,meaningthatthe
    economicadvantagesofood-proneareasforintensive
    agriculture,forexample,outweightheperceivedrisks.
    Withinincomeregions,relativelymorepeoplearecon-
    centratedinood-proneareasinlowermiddle-income
    countriesand,intermsofgeographicregions,inEast
    AsiaandthePacic(Figure27.3).
    AsTable27.2shows,morethan90%oftheglobal
    populationexposedtooodslivesinSouthAsiaand
    EastAsiaandinthePacic.Exposureisgrowingmost
    rapidlyintheMiddleEastandinNorthAfricaandsub-
    SaharanAfrica.Incontrast,exposureisstableincoun-
    triesoftheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operation
    andDevelopment(OECD),whileitisstartingtotrend
    downwardsineasternandsouth-easternEuropeand
    CentralAsia,reectingabroadertrendofdemograph-
    icdecline.
    Globalvulnerabilitytooodhazardwasstableinthe
    1990s,buthassubsequentlydecreased(UNISDR,2011).
    VulnerabilityhasdeclinedinallregionsexceptEurope
    andCentralAsiaandtheOECDcountries,whereithas
    remainedstable.Astheseareregionalaverages,there
    maybecountrieswithincreasingvulnerability.Butin
    generalthestatisticsreecthowimproveddevelop-
    mentconditionshavereducedvulnerabilityandledto
    strengtheneddisastermanagementcapacities.
    FIGURE 27.2
    Hazardmortalityrisk(oods,tropicalcyclonesandprecipitation-triggeredlandslides)
    Source: Developed by the GAR team at UNISDR.
    Risk
    High
    Low
    WWDR4 607 WATER-RELATEDDISASTERS
    Floodmortalityrisk(Box27.4)hasdecreasedinallre-
    gionssince1990,withtheexceptionofSouthAsia.In
    EastAsiaandPacic,inparticular,ithasdecreasedby
    abouttwo-thirds(UNISDR,2011).
    Thisgrowingvulnerabilityisreectedinthechalleng-
    esfacedbySouthAsiatoreducetheimpactofthe
    August2010oodsinPakistan.Theseoodskilledap-
    proximately1,700peopleandcausedUS$9.7billion
    indamagetoinfrastructure,farmsandhomes,aswell
    asotherdirectandindirectlosses(ADB/WorldBank,
    2010).ThemapinFigure27.4contrastsmodelledood
    hazardandobservedoodedareasinPakistan.As
    withanyoodevent,someareasatriskofoodingdid
    notoodinAugust2010.Themodeldidnothighlight
    otherareasthatdidood.
    27.2.2Droughtrisktrends
    Droughtrisksareonlypartlyassociatedwithde-
    cientorerraticrainfall.Instead,theyareprimarilytrig-
    geredbyarangeofdriversthatincludepovertyand
    ruralvulnerability;increasingwaterdemanddueto
    TABLE 27.2
    Floodexposurebyregion(inmillionsofpeopleperyear)
    Region 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
    East Asia and Pacic 9.4 11.4 13.9 16.2 18.0
    Europe and Central Asia 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
    Latin America and the Caribbean 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3
    Middle East and North Africa 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
    OECD countries 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9
    South Asia 19.3 24.8 31.4 38.2 44.7
    SubSaharan Africa 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8
    World 32.5 40.6 50.5 60.3 69.4

    Sources: Data from PREVIEW ood global model: Landscan 2008 (extrapolated between 1970 to 2010 using UN world population data).
    FIGURE 27.3
    Peopleexposedtooods
    Source: UNISDR (2009, g. 2.14, p. 36).
    China
    VietNam
    Cambodia
    Indonesia
    Thailand
    Philippines
    Pakistan
    Myanmar
    Nepal
    Brazil
    RussianFederation
    Nigeria
    Sudan
    Egypt
    RepublicofKorea
    Colombia
    UnitedStatesofAmeria
    Mexico
    India
    Bangladesh
    20000000 16000000 12000000 8000000 4000000 2 4 6 8 10 12
    Absolute:peopleexposedperyear Relative:peopleexposedperyear,percentage
    VietNam
    Bhutan
    India
    Thailand
    Nepal
    LaoPeoplesDemocraticRepublic
    Myanmar
    Philippines
    Benin
    Haiti
    Guyana
    Belize
    DominicanRepublic
    Mozambique
    SriLanka
    NewZealand
    Sudan
    Indonesia
    Cambodia
    Bangladesh
    CHAPTER27 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 608
    TheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)has
    recentlyadoptedtheStandardizedPrecipitationIndex
    (SPI)asaglobalstandardtomeasuremeteorological
    droughts,andisencouragingitsusebynationalme-
    teorologicalandhydrologicalservices(NMHSs),inad-
    ditiontootherindicescurrentlybeingutilizedineach
    region.
    TheSPI(McKeeetal.,1993,1995)isatoolbasedon
    rainfalldata,whichcanidentifywetperiods/cyclesas
    wellasdryperiods/cycles.TheSPIcomparesrainfallat
    agivenlocationandduringadesiredperiod,normally
    fromonetotwenty-fourmonths(Guttman,1994),with
    longtermmeanprecipitationatthesamelocation
    (EdwardsandMcKee,1997).PositiveSPIvaluesindi-
    categreaterthannormalrainfallinthechosenperiod
    andnegativeSPIvaluesindicatelessthannormalrain-
    fall(Figure27.5).
    Atleast20to30years(optimally50to60years)of
    monthlyrainfalldataisneededtocalculatetheSPI
    (Guttman,1994).Giventhelackofcompletedatase-
    riesinmanylocations,andthefactthatmanydrought-
    proneregionsdonothavesufcientrainfallstations,
    urbanization,industrializationandthegrowthofagro-
    business;poorwaterandsoilmanagement;weakor
    inefectivegovernance;andclimatechange.Unlike
    therisksassociatedwithtropicalcyclonesandoods,
    droughtrisksremainpoorlyunderstood.Droughtloss-
    esandimpactsarenotsystematicallycaptured,stand-
    ardsformeasuringdroughthazardhaveonlyrecently
    beingintroduced,anddatacollectionconstraintsmake
    itdifculttoaccuratelymodelriskinmanylocations.
    Meteorologicaldroughtsareusuallydenedasde-
    cienciesinrainfall,fromperiodsrangingfromafew
    monthstoseveralyears.Longdroughtsoftenchange
    inintensityovertimeandundergogeographicshifts,
    therebyafectingdiferentareas.Untilrecently,there
    wasnoagreedglobalstandardforidentifyingand
    measuringmeteorologicaldrought.Nationalweath-
    erservicesuseddiferentcriteria,makingitdif-
    culttoestablishexactlywhenandwheredroughts
    occur.Consequently,droughthasoftenbeencon-
    fusedwithotherclimateconditionssuchasaridityor
    desertication.
    ThesecondWorld Water Development Reportusedthe
    DisasterRiskIndex(DRI)asthemainindicatorformoni-
    toringoodanddroughtrisk.Thisapproachwassub-
    sequentlyreviewedandseveralinstitutionsjoinedtheir
    efortsoveratwo-yearperiodtodevelopanewmethod-
    ologyfortheglobalmodellingofhazards:theMortality
    RiskIndex(MRI).
    Theimprovedestimatesofglobaldisasterriskweremade
    possiblethankstohighermodelresolutionsandmore
    completedataongeographicandphysicalhazardevent
    characteristics,especiallyforoods,tropicalcyclonesand
    earthquakes.Theyalsobenetedfromhigherresolution
    exposuredataonpopulationandeconomicassets(sub-
    nationalGDP).Themainimprovementcamefromthe
    eventpereventanalysis.Previousglobalstudiessuchas
    theDRIuseda21-yearreturningperiodonaverage.This
    preventedthecomputationofspeciceventintensity.
    Byanalysingindividualeventsandlinkingahazardevent
    outcome(i.e.losses)withthegeographic,physicaland
    socio-economicalcharacteristicsoftheevent,themodel
    canincorporatemoreadequatelythecontextualcondi-
    tionsinwhicheachdisasteroccurred.
    BOX 27.4
    FromtheDisasterRiskIndextotheMortalityRisk
    Index
    Source: Peduzzi et al. (2009); UNISDR (2011).
    FIGURE 27.4
    ExtentofoodinginPakistanon30August2010
    Source: UNISDR (2011, g. 2.13, p. 30).
    Line of
    Control
    A
    F
    G
    H
    A
    N
    I
    S
    T
    A
    N
    J
    a
    m
    m
    u

    a
    n
    d

    K
    a
    s
    h
    m
    i
    r
    I N D I A
    KABUL
    Lahore
    Dera Ismail
    Khan
    Quetta
    Karachi
    Peshawar
    Kohat
    Mardan
    Nowshera
    Amritsar
    Srinagar
    Kandahar
    Hyderabad
    Mirpur Khas
    Khairpur
    Sukkur
    Rahim Yar Khan
    Jacobabad
    Shikarpur
    Dadu
    Larkana
    ISLAMABAD
    Faisalabad
    Rawalpindi
    Gujrat
    Jhelum
    Gujranwala
    Sialkot
    Tank
    Zhob
    Sibi
    Rohri
    Leiah Gojra
    Kasur
    Dhanot
    Taunsa
    Chaman
    Multan
    Harnoli
    Mastung
    Kundian
    Kharian
    Bhakkar
    Kamalia
    Chiniot
    Sahiwal
    Okara
    Samasata
    Faridkot
    Mianwali
    Burewala
    Nawabshah
    Tando Adam
    Bahawalnager
    Jhang Sadr
    Shekhupura
    Attock City
    Wah
    Lakki Marwat
    Dera Ghazi Khan
    Sargodha
    Hafizabad
    Mian Channan
    0 N
    5 N
    70 E
    70 E 75 E
    30 N
    25 N
    Elevation
    Metres
    500
    1 000
    2 500
    25
    50
    100
    250
    Pakistan Flood
    Maximum Extent
    as of 30 August 2010
    Permanent
    water
    International
    boundary
    Province
    boundary
    District
    boundary
    Urban areas
    Observed AND modelled
    Observed NOT modelled
    Model
    0 100 200 Kilometres 50
    WWDR4 609 WATER-RELATEDDISASTERS
    manyusershavetoapplyinterpolationtechniquesto
    llintemporalandgeographicgapsinthedata.
    TheapplicationofSPIwillstrengthenthecapacity
    ofcountriestomonitorandassessmeteorological
    drought.Despiteitssimplicity,however,manycoun-
    triesarechallengedbythelowdensityofrainfallsta-
    tionsinsomeareasandtheirdeclineinnumber,given
    thelowprioritygiventohazardmonitoringingov-
    ernmentbudgets.Sincethemid1970s,forexample,
    thenumberofrainfallstationsmaintainedbySpains
    nationalmeteorologicalagency,AEMET,hasdeclined
    from4,800toapproximately2,600(Mestre,2010).
    Globaldroughtriskmodelsweredevelopedinthecon-
    textofearlierassessmentsofdisasterrisk(Dilleyet
    al.,2005;UNDP,2004).Butthemortalitydroughtrisk
    indexproposedbytheUnitedNationsDevelopment
    Programme(UNDP)wasunsuccessfulbecausemost
    droughtsdonotproducefatalitiesandmostmajorre-
    cordedmortality,insub-SaharanAfricaforexample,
    isconcentratedincountriesexperiencingconictor
    politicalcrisis.Onlyweakcorrelationswerefoundbe-
    tweenthepopulationexposedtometeorologicaldrought
    andattributedmortality(UNDP,2004).Droughtimpacts
    onhumandevelopmentprovideamuchmoresatisfac-
    torymetricthanmortalityforcalculatinghumanrisk.But
    whiletheseimpactsarecapturedinlocallyspecicmicro
    studies(delaFuenteandDercon,2008),systematicdata
    isnotavailabletocalibrateaglobalriskmodel.
    27.3Water-relateddisasterriskdrivers
    Understandingtheunderlyingdriversofriskforoods
    anddroughtsisthecornerstoneofanyeforttoreduce
    riskandfutureimpacts.Theexamplesprovidedbelow
    showthatclimatechange,increasingpovertyandin-
    equality,andbadlyplannedandmanagedurbanandre-
    gionaldevelopmentallcontributetoincreasingtherisk
    ofnaturalhazards.
    27.3.1Climatechange
    AsthereportsoftheIntergovernmentalPanelon
    ClimateChange(IPCC)havemadeclear,climate
    changeleadstogradualchangesinvariablessuchas
    FIGURE 27.5
    Interpolatedglobalmapproductforthesix-monthStandardizedPrecipitationIndex(SPI)
    (AprilSeptember2010)
    Note: The map shows the global distribution of meteorological drought at the end of September 2010 using a sixmonth SPI. It highlights the
    drought in Russia associated with wildres, as well as droughts in western Brazil, a normally humid climate, and southern Africa.
    The green shading, from light green to dark green, shows increasing SPI values from 1.0 to 3.0 (moderately wet to extremely wet). The red
    shading, from light red to dark red, shows SPI values from 1.0 to 3.0 (moderately dry to extremely dry).

    Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society Data Library, Columbia University (see http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.
    Global/.Precipitation/SPI.html).
    W W W W W 0 E E E E E E
    Longitude

    S
    0

    1
    L
    a
    t
    i
    t
    u
    d
    e
    CHAPTER27 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 610
    averagetemperature,sealevel,andthetimingand
    amountofprecipitation.Climatechangealsocon-
    tributestomorefrequent,severeandunpredictable
    hazardssuchascyclones,oodsandheatwaves
    extremeweatherevents(IPCC,2007).Otherclimate
    phenomenasuchasLaNiaarethoughttobelinked
    totheoodsandlandslidesthatoccurredfromApril
    toDecember2010inColombia,andtheoodsin
    Queensland,Australia,whichweretriggeredbyrains
    thatbeganinDecember2010.
    Economiesthatrelyonprimaryresourcesandclimate-
    sensitivesectorslikeagriculturearemorevulnerable
    togreaterclimatevariabilityandchangesinaver-
    ageprecipitationandtemperature(OECD,2010).For
    example,awarmingof2Ccouldresultina4%5%
    permanentreductioninannualpercapitaincomein
    AfricaandSouthAsia,comparedwithminimallosses
    (approximately1%)indevelopedandlargerdeveloping
    countries(WorldBank,2010).Theseeconomiesareill
    preparedtoabsorbsuchdecreasesinincome.
    27.3.2Weakriskgovernancecapacities
    Despiteincreasedglobalawarenessofdisasterrisk
    andclimatechange,andgreaterpoliticalcommit-
    ment(asreectedinregionalministerialdeclarations
    inAfrica[DeclarationoftheSecondAfricanMinisterial
    ConferenceonDisasterRiskReduction,Nairobi,
    1416April2010]andAsia[ThirdAsianMinisterial
    ConferenceonDisasterRiskReduction,KualaLumpur,
    24December2008]),disasterriskreductionand
    managementhasbeenonlytimidlyincorporatedinto
    developmentplanning,andtheinstitutionalmecha-
    nismsrequiredforsuchintegrationarestillemerging
    (UNISDR,2009).Inaddition,manybilateralandmulti-
    lateralcountryassistancestrategiesforcountriesfac-
    ingwell-knownrisksarenotplannedwitharisksensi-
    tivelens.Theoutcomeisthattheexposureofpeople
    andassetstoclimate-relatedhazardsisincreasing
    fasterthanmanylow-incomecountriesareableto
    reducetheirvulnerabilities.Suchcountriesoftenhave
    difcultiesinaddressingunderlyingriskdriverssuch
    asecosystemdecline,povertyandbadlyplannedand
    managedurbanization.Theoutcomeisarapidin-
    creaseinthenumberofandlossofassetsindisasters.
    27.3.3Badlyplannedandmanagedurban
    development
    Informalsettlements,inadequatehousing,non-exist-
    entservicesandpoorhealtharereectionsofpoverty.
    However,theyarealsoreectionsofweaknessesin
    thewayurbangrowthisplannedandmanaged.One
    exampleofaninformalsettlementcalled9October
    inLima,Peru,showstherelationshipbetweenpov-
    erty,poorplanninganddisasterimpact.Thisparticu-
    larhillsidewasurbanizedinformallyfromthebottom
    upwardsbynearbyagriculturalworkers.Multi-storey
    concreteandbrickhousessoonreplacedearlycon-
    structionsofbamboomatting.Bythe1990s,
    9 October had a population of more than 1,300, as
    well as domestic electricity, water and telephone
    connections, and property titles. In 1999, a local de-
    velopment plan classied the area as a zone of en-
    vironmental risk and social vulnerability due to high
    salinity in the soil which was eroding foundations
    and containing walls; two and three-storey houses
    occupying unstable sites without load-bearing ca-
    pacity; and leaks from a deteriorated water and san-
    itation network, which were causing subterranean
    erosion. In June 2003, part of the hillside subsided
    and collapsed, damaging 280 houses of which 70
    were destroyed. (UNISDR, 2009, p. 100)
    Disasterriskmaybeincreasingfastestinrapidlygrow-
    ingsmallandmedium-sizedurbancentresthaninei-
    therruralareasorlargercities.Largeandmegacities
    generallyhavestrongerriskgovernanceandinvest-
    mentcapacitiesthansmallandmediumcities.This
    ndingissupportedbythefactthatinmostLatin
    Americancountries,thenumberofdisastersreported
    isincreasingatafasterratethaninlargeurbancentres
    andmegacities(Mansilla,2010).Morethan80%ofall
    reportsofdisasterlossinLatinAmericaoccurinurban
    areas.Whileeachcountryhasadiferenturbanstruc-
    ture,between40%and70%ofallnationallyreported
    disastersoccurinurbancentresoflessthan100,000
    inhabitants,andbetween14%and36%takeplacein
    smallurbancentres.Thisproportionisgrowing.In
    Mexico,forexample,smallandmediumurbancentres
    accountedfor45.5%oftotaldisastermunicipallossre-
    portsinthe1980s,but54%since2000.

    27.3.4Povertyandruralvulnerability
    Withincountries,poorerareastendtohavehigher
    disasterrisk,mirroringglobalpatternsandillustrating
    thecomplexinteractionsbetweenpovertyanddis-
    asterriskanalysedindetailintheGlobal Assessment
    Report 2009,aspresentedpreviouslyinthesummary
    ofcasestudyndingsonthesocialdistributionofdis-
    asterloss.AnexerciseinColombiashowedthatthose
    municipalitieswithagreaterproportionofunsatised
    WWDR4 611 WATER-RELATEDDISASTERS
    basicneedsandlowerGDPpercapitaweremorelikely
    toexperienceahighernumberofpeopleafectedand
    morehousesdamagedinoods(OSSO,2011).
    Ruralpovertyisbothacauseandasymptomof
    droughtriskinKenyasMwingidistrict.Between70%
    and80%ofMwingispopulationdependsonrainfed
    agri cultureandlivestockproductionforbothfoodand
    income,and60%ofthepopulationsubsistsonUS$1
    perdayorless(Galuetal.,2010).Therefore,when
    droughtoccursitcanwipeoutincomeandinvest-
    ments,leavingcommunitieswithlimitedmeansto
    buferlosses.Duringthe20082009drought,for
    example,70%ofthepopulationdependedonfoodaid
    (Galuetal.,2010).Whilethismassivereliefsuccessfully
    avertedafoodsecuritycrisis,itrevealstheextreme
    vulnerabilityofmanyruralagriculturalandagro-
    pastorallivelihoods.
    Poorruralhouseholds,whoselivelihoodsdependon
    rainfedsubsistenceagriculture,arealmostalwaysthe
    socialgroupmostexposedandvulnerabletodrought.
    Inmanycountries,theyhavebeenhistoricallyforced
    tooccupymarginaldrought-exposedland.Andthey
    oftenlacktheresourcestoaccessirrigationtechnology
    ordrought-resistantseeds,whichcouldreducetheir
    vulnerability.Forexample,sub-SaharanAfricaswater
    storagefacilitiesareseverelyunder-developed,witha
    percapitastoragecapacityof200m
    3
    peryearonav-
    erage(ascomparedto1,277m
    3
    forThailandand5,961
    m
    3
    forNorthAmerica)(FosterandBricenoGarmendia,
    2010;GreyandSadof,2006).
    Groupsofcountrieswithsmallandvulnerableecono-
    mies,suchasmanysmallislanddevelopingstates
    (SIDS),land-lockeddevelopingcountries(LLDCs)and
    leastdevelopedcountries(LDCs),wouldappearto
    haveparticulardifcultiesinabsorbingandrecovering
    fromdisasterimpacts(CorralesandMiquelena,2008;
    Noy,2009).SIDS,forexample,oftenhavehigherrela-
    tivedisasterriskthanlargercountriesbecausealmost
    alloftheirpopulationandassetsareexposedtohaz-
    ardssuchastropicalcyclones(Kelman,2010;UNISDR,
    2009),whiletheireconomiesmaybeconcentrated
    aroundasinglevulnerablesector,suchastourism.
    Theexpansionofintensivemarketagricultureandur-
    banizationcanleadtothesaleofwaterrights,pushing
    theruralpoortofarmmarginallandsmoreintensively,
    andtherebyincreasingtheirdroughtriskfurtherstill
    (FitzhughandRichter,2004).Forexample,Mexicos
    watermanagementandlandtenurepoliciesdateback
    tothe1910revolution,andarebasedoncommunal
    ownershipoflandandwaterbysmallholderfarmers
    knownasejido25%ofwhomliveinabjectpoverty.
    Nowadays,theejidocannotcompetewithlargefarm-
    ersandagribusinesses.InthestateofSonora,nearly
    75%ofirrigationwaterisallocatedtothissector,in-
    creasingtheagriculturaldroughtriskoftheejido(Neri
    andBriones,2010).
    27.3.5Ecosystemdegradation
    Manyecosystemshavebeenintentionallyorunin-
    tentionallymodiedtoincreasethesupplyofcertain
    categoriesofservices,andinstitutionshavebeende-
    velopedtogovernaccessto,anduseof,theseser-
    vices.However,becauseecosystemsproducemany
    servicessimultaneously,anincreaseinthesupplyof
    oneservice,suchasfood,canfrequentlyleadtode-
    clinesinotherservices,suchasoodprotection.The
    MillenniumEcosystemAssessmentidentiedmodi-
    cationstoecosystemsthathaveunintentionallyledto
    thedeclineofregulatingecosystemservices,including
    thoseresponsibleforreducingpeoplesexposureto
    hazards,suchasresandoods.
    Watermanagementalsoafectstheprovisionofeco-
    systemservicesinwaysthatmodifylevelsofdisaster
    risk.Forexample,theincreasingdemandonriversfor
    irrigation,aswellasextractionofwaterforindustri-
    alanddomesticuse,reducesthesedimentationthat
    Thedrainageofapproximately4,800km
    2
    ofwetlands
    intheMississippiDeltaintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
    wasoneoftheunderlyingfactorsbehindthescaleofthe
    oodingassociatedwithhurricaneKatrina.Manyareas
    formerlyabovesealevellaybelowsealevelatthetimeof
    Katrinaasaresultofwetlanddrainage,whilethecapac-
    ityofthewetlandstodissipatestormsurgeandabsorb
    oodwatershaddiminished.Theforestedriparianwet-
    landsadjacenttotheMississippiRiverduringpre-settle-
    menttimeshadthecapacitytostoreaboutsixtydays
    ofriverdischarge.Today,thefewremainingwetlands
    haveareducedstoragecapacityoflessthantwelvedays
    discharge,implyingan80%reductioninoodstorage
    capacity.Thislossofwetlandsalsocontributedsubstan-
    tiallytotheseverityanddamageexperiencedinthe1993
    MississippiBasinood.
    BOX 27.5
    TheMississippiwetlands
    CHAPTER27 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 612
    reachesthecoast.Thiscanafectdownstreamagricul-
    turalyieldsandshproductivity,damagethehealth
    ofcoastalwetlands,andincreasecoastaloodhazard
    levels.Excessivegroundwaterextractionisleadingto
    apotentiallyirreversibledegradationofaquifers,again
    withcompoundefectsonrurallivelihoods.Coastal
    andinlandwetlandshaveacriticalinuenceonboth
    livelihoodsandtheregulationofoodanddrought
    (Box27.5).
    27.4Methodologiesandtoolsforreducing
    water-relatedhazardrisk
    Theelementsthatconstituteefectivemethodsand
    toolstoreducewater-relatedhazardriskarecontext
    specic,aswellasdependantontheperspectiveof
    therespectiveexpertsandinstitutionsengaged.
    Duringtheanalyticalworkundertakenforthischapter
    itbecameapparentthattheidenticationofthemost
    appropriateandefectivemethodsandtoolsisseldom
    basedonasufcientlybroadunderstandingoftheun-
    derlyingproblem.Forthemeteorologicalcommunity,
    thebestapproachtooodsliesinbetterforecasting
    andissuingofearlywarnings,whileforaministryof
    infrastructure,theoptimalapproachwillbestructural
    innature,suchasthedamsandleveesrequiredfor
    bothwaterstorageandoodcontrol.Ofcourse,
    experienceshowsthatacombinationofdiferent
    approachesismostefective.Thecostbenetof
    preventiveinvestmentagainstpost-disasternancing
    mechanismsisalsoinsufcientlytakenintoaccount.
    Post-disasterapproachesincludecatastrophicrisk-
    nancingandotherinsurancemechanisms,andthe
    disbursementofresponsefunds.
    TheWorldConferenceonDisasterReductioninKobe,
    Japanin2005concludedaground-breakingagree-
    mentthatprovidesaclearmandateforactiontore-
    ducedisasterrisks;namely,theHyogoFrameworkfor
    Action20052015:BuildingtheResilienceofNations
    andCommunitiestoDisasters.Theover-ridingexpect-
    edoutcomeoftheHyogoFrameworkforActionisthe
    substantial reduction of disaster losses, in lives and in
    the social, economic and environmental assets of com-
    munities and states.
    TheHyogoFrameworkemphasizesthatdisasterrisk
    reductionisacentralissuefordevelopmentpolicies,as
    wellasbeingofinteresttovariousscientic,humani-
    tarianandenvironmentalelds,stressingthatwithout
    concertedefortstoaddressdisasterlosses,disasters
    willbecomeanincreasinglyevidentobstacletothe
    achievementoftheMDGs.
    WhiletheHyogoFrameworkforActionprovidesa
    comprehensivesetofactionsthatacountrycantake
    tostrengthenitsriskgovernancecapacities,itdoes
    notprovideasetoftoolsandmethodsfromwhich
    nationalandlocalauthoritiescanestablishthemost
    socially,environmentallyandeconomicalapproaches
    toreducerisk.
    Methodsandtoolsarerequiredtocorrectexistingrisk
    levelsthroughactionssuchasretrottingbuildings,
    relocatingsettlementsandrestoringecosystems.This,
    however,ismoreexpensivethanavoidingsuchrisksin
    therstplace.Giventhehighlevelofrecurrentlosses,
    itisusuallycost-efectivetocorrecttherisksrelated
    tofrequentrecurrentdisasters,butincreasinglylessso
    forveryhighintensitybutlessfrequentevents,given
    thecostsinvolvedandlongperiodsbeforebenetsare
    potentiallyrealized.However,investmentstoprotect
    criticalfacilities,suchasschoolsandhealthfacilities,
    againstmoreextremerisksmaybejustied,forboth
    economicandpoliticalreasons.Forexample,ifacity
    governmentinveststorelocatesquattersettlements
    subjecttorecurrentoodingalongacyclone-prone
    coastline,thisrelocationprogrammewillnotonlylead
    toashort-termreductioninhigh-frequency,low-se-
    veritylossesassociatedwiththeoods,butwould
    alsoreducetheperiodiccyclonelosses.Incontrast,in
    othercontexts,protectinganareaagainst100-year
    oodsmayencouragegreaterinvestmentinthearea,
    leadingtoincreasedlossesintheeventofa500-year
    ood.Ultimately,allinvestmentsinriskreductionin-
    volvetrade-ofsbetweendiferentsocialandeconomic
    objectives.
    Forcertainintensiverisksthatcannotbereducedcost-
    efectively,risktransfermeasuressuchasinsurance
    andcatastropheriskpools/bondscanmitigatedisaster
    impactsonphysicalassetsandenhancetheabilityof
    governmentstorespond.Onemodelthathasdem-
    onstratedsomesuccessistheCaribbeanCatastrophe
    RiskInsuranceFacility(CCRIF).Thisrisk-poolingfacil-
    ityisoperatedintheCaribbeanforCaribbeangovern-
    ments.Itisdesignedtolimitthenancialimpactof
    catastrophichurricanesandearthquakesonCaribbean
    governmentsbyquicklyprovidingshort-termliquidity
    whenapolicyistriggered.Since2007,16Caribbean
    governmentshaveincludedCCRIFparametricinsur-
    ancepoliciesagainsthurricanesandearthquakes
    WWDR4 613 WATER-RELATEDDISASTERS
    aspartoftheircountriesdisasterriskmanagement
    portfolios.Anexampleofthekindofpayoutprovided
    byCCRIFistheUS$6.3millionpaidtotheTurksand
    CaicosIslandsafterhurricaneIkemadeadirecthitin
    September2008(WorldBank,2010).However,the
    limitedscaleofthepayoutsinthecontextofgrowing
    levelsofriskisbecomingaconcernforgovernments.
    ThepayoutforHaitifollowingthe12January2010
    earthquakewasonlyUS$7.75million.
    Traditionaldisastermanagement,includingefective
    earlywarning,preparednessandresponse,isessential
    tostrengtheningresiliencetoandfacilitatingrecovery
    fromallmanifestationsofrisk.Anumberofdeveloping
    countrieshavemadesignicantprogressinthisarea,re-
    sultinginsavedlives.Almostallhouseholds(98%)have
    accesstoradioandTVinCuba;consequently,these
    comprisethemaincommunicationchannelsusedby
    thenationalmeteorologicalservice(withgovernment
    authority)toissuetropicalcycloneandrelatedood
    warnings.InBangladesh,farfewerpeoplehavetelevi-
    sionsandradios,sotheBangladeshMeteorological
    Departmentconveyscycloneandstormsurgewarnings
    throughmultiplechannels(fax,Internet,radioandTV).
    ButthecentralizedwarningcentreoftheBangladesh
    CyclonePreparednessProgrammeensuresthatthe
    warningsreachcoastalcommunities.Thecentrealerts
    anetworkofvolunteersthroughHF/VHFradiobroad-
    casts,andtheyinturnfanoutintothecommunitiesto
    warnthepeople(WMO,2009).
    Therearelikelytobegreaterincentivesforreducing
    risksassociatedwithwater-relatedhazardswhensuch
    instrumentsaddresstheneedsofanumberofstake-
    holdersandcompetingprioritiessimultaneously;forex-
    ample,ifbetterwatermanagementnotonlyaddresses
    droughtrisk,butalsoincreaseshydro-energygenera-
    tion,water-storagecapacityforagriculturaluse,andthe
    availabilityofdomesticdrinkingwater.Ingeneral,these
    incentivesarestrongerwhenreductioninrisktowater-
    relatedhazardscontributesvisiblytoimprovedeco-
    nomicandsocialwellbeingandchoiceforeachcitizen.
    Anumberofcountries,however,arenowinnovat-
    ingandbuildingapproachestoreducingriskrelated
    towater-relatedhazardsintoexistingdevelopment
    instrumentsinareassuchaspublicinvestment
    planning,ecosystemmanagement,urbandevelop-
    mentandsocialprotection(Box27.6).Whilemanyof
    theseinnovationsarestillintheirearlystages,they
    holdthepromiseofexponentiallyincreasingtheim-
    pactofreducingriskrelatedtowater-relatedhazards.
    Importantlytheyalsocontributetoothersocialand
    economicdevelopmentgoals,whichinturnfeedback
    intoreducedrisk.Theupgradingofinefcient,ageing
    wateranddrainageinfrastructure,ifplannedfroma
    riskreductionperspective,canreducevulnerabilityto
    droughtandoods,whileimprovingthequalityofwa-
    terandsanitation.
    Thissectionofthereporthaspresenteddiferent
    methodsandtoolstoaddresswater-relatedhazard
    riskandwillbeaugmentedinfuturewithmoresys-
    tematicmeasuresofefectiveness.
    Inthesemi-aridregionofMaharashtraStateinIndia,the
    WatershedOrganizationTrustisassistingpoorruralcom-
    munitiestoincreasetheirlivelihoodsecuritybysupport-
    ingwatershedrestorationprojects.Thecombinationofre-
    curringdroughtsandhumanpressuresonthesurrounding
    landhasdegradedwatersheds.Thisdecreaseinsoilfer-
    tilityandwateravailabilityhascreateddrought-stressed
    communitiesvulnerabletotheimpactsofclimatechange.
    Workingonamicro-catchmentbasis,rigorouswatershed
    restorationmeasuresdesignedtoregenerateandcon-
    servemicro-catchmentshavebeenundertaken,including
    soil,landandwatermanagement(e.g.trenchbuildingto
    controlerosion,improvesoilfertilityandenhanceground-
    waterrecharge);cropmanagement;aforestationandru-
    ralenergymanagement(e.g.abanontree-felling,instead
    plantingshrubsandgrasstomeethouseholdfuelneeds);
    andlivestockmanagementandpasture/fodderdevelop-
    ment(e.g.grazingrestrictionsleadingtothenaturalre-
    generationofgrassandshrubs).Theseprojectshavebeen
    supportedbyothermeasures,includingmicro-lending,
    traininginnewtechniquesandtheformationofself-help
    groups,todiversifylivelihoods.
    Increasedsoilcover,improvedsoilmoistureregimes,
    increasedwellwaterlevels,biomassregeneration,and
    dramaticincreasesinfodderavailability,milkproduction
    andvegetablefarmingaresomeoftheresultsreported
    byparticipatingvillages.Coupledwithmicro-enterprise
    developmentandanincreaseinsavingsgroups,thesere-
    sultshavetranslatedintomoresecurelivelihoods,diversi-
    edassetbasesandreducedexposuretoclimate-related
    shocks.
    BOX 27.6
    Micro-lendingtoassistwatershedrestorationand
    developmentinMaharashtraState,India
    Source: IISD et al. (2003).
    CHAPTER27 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 614
    27.5Emergingapproachestoreduceood
    anddroughthazardrisk
    27.5.1Land-useplanningandbuilding
    Thewaysinwhichlandisusedincitiesandhowbuild-
    ings,infrastructureandnetworksaredesignedand
    constructedhaveadecisiveimpactonexposure,and
    whetheracountrysaccumulatedriskincreasesorde-
    creases.Assuch,land-useplanningisaprimeinstru-
    mentforreducingriskrelatedtowater-relatedhazards.
    Ifexistingandpotentialhazardsaretakenintoaccount
    inland-usedecisions,newriskscouldbeavoidedand
    existingrisksreducedovertime.Decisionsonland
    useunderpinmostriskconstruction,giventhatonce
    investmentsininfrastructure,housingandotherfacili-
    tieshavebeenmadeinhazardouslocations,theriskis
    lockedinplacefordecadesormore.
    InanumberofcitiesinColombia,disasterriskre-
    ductionhasbeenincorporatedasanintegralpart
    ofimprovementsinurbanandlocalgovernance.In
    Manizales,aninnovativecross-subsidizedinsurance
    schemecalledPredioSeguro,supportedbythecity
    government,hasenabledpoorhouseholdstoobtain
    catastropheinsurancecover.Thecitygovernment,in
    partnershipwithwomensgroupsininformalsettle-
    ments,alsoinvestsinstabilizingslopesinlandslide
    proneinformalsettlements(Cardona,2009).
    27.5.2Ecosystemmanagement
    Protectingecosystemsthatwill,inturn,reducetherisk
    ofnaturalhazardssuchasoodsanddrought,requires
    actionsatdiferentscales,theparticipationofawide
    arrayofstakeholders,anddiferentbodiesofknowl-
    edgescientic,technical,localandtraditional.
    Densevegetationcoverwithinupperwatershedareas
    increasesinltrationofrainfallasopposedtosurface
    runof,reducingpeakowratesexceptinthemostex-
    tremeconditionswhensoilsarealreadyfullysaturat-
    ed.Vegetationalsoprotectsagainsterosion,thereby
    reducingsoillossandthetransportofmudandrock
    thatgreatlyincreasethedestructivepowerofood-
    waters.Densevegetationalsoprotectsriverbanksand
    adjacentlandstructuresfromerosionbyoodwaters.
    Wetlandsandoodplainsoilsabsorbwater,reducing
    peakowratesdownstream(WorldBank,2010).
    AstudyaroundMantadiaNationalPark,Madagascar,
    concludedthatconversionfromprimaryforestto
    swidden(areaclearedfortemporarycultivationby
    cuttingandburningthevegetation)canincrease
    downstreamstormowbyasmuchas4.5times
    (Stoltonetal.,2008).
    Inthecaseofecosystemrestoration,theavoided
    costsmaysignicantlyexceedtherestorationcosts
    (Box27.7).InVietNam,forexample,theInternational
    FederationofRedCrossandRedCrescentsocie-
    ties(IFRC)plantedandprotected12,000haofman-
    groves,anactionthatcostapproximatelyUS$1mil-
    lion,butreducedthecostsofseadykemaintenanceby
    US$7.3millionperyear.Moreover,theco-benetsmay
    alsogreatlyexceedtheopportunitycosts.Forexam-
    ple,theMillenniumEcosystemAssessmentestimated
    thatthevalueofhealthycoastalmangrovesasnurser-
    ies,pollutionltersandcoastaldefencesisUS$1,000
    toUS$36,000formangrovevalueversusUS$200per
    haforshrimpfarming(MA,2005).InMalaysia,the
    AscoastaldefencesmangroveforestsinHalaysia
    havebeenestimatedtohaveaneconomicvalueof
    US$300,000perkmbasedoncomparisonwithengi-
    neeredalternatives(ProAct,2008).
    Sincecommunitieshavebeenplantingandpro-
    tectingmangroveforestsinnorthernVietNamtobufer
    againststorms.AninitialinvestmentofUS$1.1million
    savedanestimatedUS$7.3millionayearinseadyke
    maintenanceandappearedtosignicantlyreduceloss-
    esoflifeandpropertyfromtyphoonWukongin2000,
    comparedwithotherareas(WWF,2008).
    lntheLuznicefoodplainoneofthelastfoodplains
    intheCzechRepublicwithanunalteredhydrologi-
    calregime470hahavemonetaryvaluesperhectare
    ofUS$11,788foroodmitigation(waterretention),
    US$15,000forbiodiversity,US$144forcarbonseques-
    tration,US$78forhayproduction,US$37forshpro-
    ductionandUS$21forwoodproduction(ProAct,2008).
    1heeconomicvalueofforestsforpreventingava-
    lanchesisestimatedataroundUS$100perhaperyear
    inopenexpansesoflandintheSwissAlps,andupto
    morethanUS$170,000perhaperyearinareaswith
    valuableassets(ProAct,2008).
    Arecentstudyontheroleofwetlandsinreducing
    oodingassociatedwithhurricanesintheUnitedStates
    ofAmericacalculatedanaveragevalueofUS$8,240
    perhaperyear,withcoastalwetlandsestimatedtopro-
    videUS$23.2billionperyearinstormprotectionser-
    vices(Costanzaetal.,2008).
    BOX 27.7
    Examplesshowingthevalueofecosystemservices
    toreducingdisasterrisk
    Source: World Bank (2010).
    WWDR4 615 WATER-RELATEDDISASTERS
    economicvalueofmangrovesascoastaldefences
    hasbeenestimatedatUS$300,000perkm,taking
    intoaccountthecostsofhardengineeringworkto
    achievethesameprotectiveefect(UNISDR,2009).In
    Switzerland,theeconomicvalueofforestsinprevent-
    ingavalanchesisvaluedatUS$100perhaperyearin
    openareas,butuptoUS$170,000inareaswithhigh-
    valueassets(WorldBank,2010).
    Atthesametime,ecosystemsoftenprovideimpor-
    tantco-benetsifproperlymanaged.Someofthe
    mostfertileagriculturallandontheplanetdepends
    onregularoodingtorechargethesoilwithnutrients.
    Floodingcanalsorechargeaquifersinsemi-aridareas
    ortransportvitalsedimentsandnutrientstosustain
    coastalsheriesinotherareas.
    27.5.3Socialprotection:Increasingresilienceto
    disasters
    Therearetwocompellingreasonswhysocialprotec-
    tioncanbeastrategicmechanismforthemanagement
    ofwaterhazards.First,socialprotectioninstruments
    (communitycohesion,healthcarefacilities,accom-
    modationinsurance,etc.)canbeadaptedtoenhance
    thedisasterresilienceofindividualsandhouseholds,
    aswellasprovidingimportantbenetsintermsof
    povertyreductionandhumancapitaldevelopment.
    Second,manyoftheseinstrumentsarealreadybeing
    deliveredonalargescale,whichmakethemapower-
    fultoolforreducingtheriskassociatedwithoodsand
    drought.Existingmechanismsforsocialprotectioncan
    thususuallybeusedtoencompasslargenumbersof
    disaster-pronehouseholdsandcommunitiesthrough
    relativelyminoradaptationsoftargetingcriteriaand
    timeframes,andoftenwithrelativelylowadditional
    costs.
    Thecountriesbestabletodevelopefectivesocialpro-
    tectionforriskpronehouseholdsandindividualsare
    thosethatalreadyhaverequisitesocialpoliciesbacked
    upbyawiderangeoflegislativeprovisions(ERD,
    2010).Theyincludelabourmarketlaws(includingthe
    regulationofunemploymentbenets),healthandsafe-
    tyregulationsintheworkplace,basicentitlementsand
    welfarepayments,andthestipulationofafrmativeac-
    tionformarginalgroups.Countriesthathavestrongly
    developedsociallegislation,correspondingregulation,
    anduptodatepublicregistriesnditeasiertoem-
    bedbothtargetedanduniversalsocialprotectionasan
    instrumentforreducingwater-relatedhazardrisks.
    27.5.4Adaptingtoclimatechange
    Climatechangeadaptationcanbeunderstoodinterms
    ofboth(a)adaptingdevelopmenttogradualchanges
    inaveragetemperature,sealevelandprecipitation;
    and(b)reducingandmanagingtherisksassociated
    withmorefrequent,severeandunpredictableextreme
    weatherevents.
    Thereisevidencethatthemomentumtodevelop
    country-leveladaptationprogrammingowesmoreto
    theperceivedopportunitytoaccessclimatechange
    fundingmechanismsthantosocialdemandforad-
    aptation.Butgiventhatinpracticemostadaptation
    measuresaddressdisasterrisks,adaptationprovides
    anadditionalsetofinstrumentsandmechanismsfor
    reducingwater-relatedhazardrisk.
    Aswithdisasterriskreduction,adaptationmeasures
    cangeneratebenetsattheappropriatescaleonly
    whentheyareintegratedintomainstreamdevelop-
    mentplanningandpublicinvestmentdecisions(ECA,
    2009).Unfortunately,manyclimatechangeadapta-
    tioninitiativesarestillconceivedofandimplemented
    asstandaloneprojects.Governmentsfailuretointe-
    grateefortstoreducewater-relatedhazardriskand
    climatechangeadaptationintonationalandsector
    developmentplanningandinvestmentperpetuatesthe
    misconceptionthatclimatechangeadaptationispre-
    dominantlyanenvironmentalissue,ratherthanacore
    componentofdevelopment,andthatreducingwater-
    relatedhazardriskislimitedtoearlywarninginsur-
    anceanddisasterpreparednessandresponse(Mercer,
    2010).
    Theinabilitytorecognizethelinksbetweenadaptation,
    disasterriskreductionanddevelopmentprocesses
    leadstoaninaccurateunderstandingofclimate-
    relatedrisks.Asaresult,thereisatendencytoempha-
    sizetheuseofrisktransfermeasuresformanaging
    extremeevents,ratherthanadoptingamorecompre-
    hensiveapproachthatalsoreducestheextensiverisks
    uponwhichclimatechangewillhavethegreatestim-
    pactintheshortterm.
    27.6Conclusionsandrequiredactions
    27.6.1Disastertrends
    Theexponentialincreaseinthedamageassociated
    withhighlylocalizedashandurbanooding,land-
    slides,res,stormsandtorrentialrainsinmanylow
    andmiddle-incomecountriesprovideareal-timein-
    dicatoroftheaccumulationofrisk(Box27.1).Most
    CHAPTER27 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 616
    oftheselossesdisproportionatelyafectlow-income
    householdsandcommunitiesandgolargelyunac-
    countedfor.Inotherwords,thereisasocialdistribu-
    tionofdisasterloss.
    Inmostoftheworld,theriskofbeingkilledbyatropi-
    calcycloneoramajorriveroodislowerthanin1990.
    Countriesaresuccessfullystrengtheningtheirca-
    pacitiesforearlywarning,preparednessanddisaster
    response.However,droughtimpactstillgoeslargely
    unaccountedforandfallsonpoorruralhouseholds.As
    aresulttheremaybelittlepoliticaloreconomicincen-
    tivetoaddressit.
    Inmostcountriesdroughtriskmanagementisreme-
    dial,emphasizingearlywarning,responseandinsur-
    anceratherthanpoliciesthataddresstheunderlying
    riskdrivers.Institutionally,droughtriskreductionand
    managementarerarelyintegratedintoeithernation-
    aldisasterriskreductionorotherpolicyframeworks
    suchaswatermanagement(e.g.IWRM).Butgiven
    theevidenceofrapidlyincreasingimpactsandclimate
    projectionsthroughtheendofthiscentury,theneed
    toaddressdroughtriskanditsunderlyingdriverswill
    befundamentaltothesustainabilityofmanycountries
    andlocalitiesoverthecomingdecades.
    27.6.2Integratedmeasures
    Abalancedportfolioofmeasuresandinvestments
    thatreduceoodanddroughtriskislikelytoimprove
    socialandeconomicdevelopment.Suchmeasuresin-
    cludedevelopmentandland-useplanning;targeted
    investments,forexample,throughretrottingcritical
    facilitiessuchasschoolsandhospitals;risktransfer
    schemestoprotectagainstthemostintensiverisks;
    andinvestmentinsocialprotectionanddisasterman-
    agement.Thus,ifontheonehanddisasterriskreduc-
    tionprogrammesimprovedevelopment,ontheother
    handdevelopmentprogrammesshouldintegrateadis-
    asterriskreductionaspect,includingitintotheirport-
    folio.Perhapsthemoststrategicoftheseinstruments
    isacountrysnationalplanningandpublicinvestment
    system(seeSection27.1.3).
    Mainstreamingdisasterriskreductioninnational
    planningandpublicinvestmentsystemdecisionsis
    apotentiallyveryhighimpactstrategy,particularly
    consideringthescaleandvolumeofpublicinvest-
    ment,infrastructureandpublicasset,particularlyin
    middle-incomecountries.Thisincludetheincorpora-
    tionofwater-relateddisasterriskreductionintoIWRM
    throughtheadoptionofregulatoryandotherlegal
    measures,institutionalreform,improvedanalyticaland
    methodologicalcapabilities,appropriatetechnologies,
    capacity-building,nancialplanning,publiceducation,
    communityinvolvementandawareness-raising.This
    approachwouldalsoprovideacost-efectiveandrst
    barrieragainstclimatechangeimpacts.

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    UNISDR.
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    U.,Giuliani,G.,Herold,C.,Kalsnesm,B.,Kluser,S.,Lvholt,
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    UNCCDandUNU

    AuthorJulianeZeidlerandAsellahDavid(IECN)
    ContributorsSergioZelayaBonillaandEmmanuelChinyamakobvu(UNCCD)
    AcknowledgementsPeerreviewwascarriedoutbyZafarAdeelandFabriceRenaud
    (UNU).
    CHAPTER 28
    Desertication, land degradation and
    drought and their impacts on water
    resources in the drylands
    Shutterstock/OlegZnamenskiy

    Water degradation in drylands will have detrimental efects for the people and the economy
    of dryland countries.
    Although it is clear by denition that drylands are water-scarce, human drivers and climate
    change pose serious threats to water resources in drylands.
    The impacts of desertication, land degradation and drought (DLDD) on water resources
    negatively afect development potentials in drylands.
    Urgent and dedicated responses to protect drylands resources including water are needed
    to support sustainable development in dryland countries.
    WWDR4 621
    DESERTIFICATION,LANDDEGRADATIONANDDROUGHT
    ANDTHEIRIMPACTSONWATERRESOURCESINTHEDRYLANDS
    FIGURE 28.1
    Theimpactofdesertication,landdegradationand
    droughtinPialiVillage,India
    28.1Introduction
    Thekeychallenges:desertication,landdegradation
    anddrought(DLDD)arespecically,butnotexclusive-
    ly,relatedtodrylands.Drylandsarebydenitionwater
    limitedenvironments.Waterisakeyresourcethatis
    underhighpressurefromincreasingdemandandde-
    creasingquality.Productivityofdrylandsisdetermined
    bywateravailabilityandquality.Anyfurtherdegra-
    dationofthisessentialresourcewillhavedetrimen-
    talefectsforthepeopleandtheeconomyofdryland
    countries.
    Drivers:DLDDarecausedandexacerbatedbydiferent
    drivers,including(a)naturaldrivers,whichareoften
    relatedtothegeographicalsituationandassociated
    environmentalandclimaticsettingsofasite;(b)hu-
    mandrivers,relatedtounsustainablehumandevelop-
    mentaspirations,whichareofteneconomicinnature
    andnotattunedtotheenvironmentalframecondi-
    tions,and(c)climatechange,whichisanew,partially
    naturalandpartiallyhuman-induceddriver.
    Risksanduncertainties:TherearevariousDLDD-
    relatedimpactsonwater,including:lowerrecharge
    ofgroundwaterandrunof;waterdegradation,for
    examplethroughpollutants,andchangesinturbid-
    ity,sedimentationandsiltation;andsalinity.Allthese
    DLDD-relatedimpactshavesevereimplicationsforthe
    developmentpotentialindrylands.Theynegatively
    afectagriculturalproduction,ecosystemhealthand
    thesustainabilityofindustrialandenergyprojectsand
    infrastructure.Amajorconcernforsustainabledevel-
    opmentindrylandsistheincreasingthreatofwater
    scarcity(Figure28.1).Wateravailabilityandqualityare
    existingchallengestopotentialdrylanddevelopment
    thatareexpectedtobeexacerbatedbytheimpactsof
    climatechange.
    Hotspots:GeographichotspotsofintensiedDLDD
    expandacrossthedrylandsoftheworldcountries
    withalowGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)andalow
    HumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)areparticularlyvul-
    nerable,asinterventionsarecostly.Drylandareaswith
    highhumanpopulationsorconnectedhighdensity
    areasdownstreamarepronetolanddegradationand
    associatednegativewaterimpacts.
    Responses:Arangeofspecicexamplesofstrategic
    responsestothechallengesexistsandeachhasbeen
    testedandimplementedonapilotbasis.However,
    thesesuccessesneedtobescaledupindrylandareas,
    whichoftenrequiressupportactions(suchaspolicy,
    nancialand,structuraland)andmaterialresources.
    Generallythreemainareasofresponseareconsidered:
    Innovations in water management and technology to
    cope with waterscarcity,includingconceptssuchas
    costofandpaymentforwater;investmentsforsus-
    tainableecosystemservices;investmentinappropriate
    techniques,technologiesandinfrastructure;develop-
    mentofnewwaterresources;andinvestmentsinwater
    research,managementandpolicy-makingcapacities.
    Promoting water use efciencybyreducingwater
    wastageandprioritizingwaterusesinthedrylands.
    Supporting policy changes needed in and for dryland
    countries, includingpolicychangesinwaterdemand
    managementandfoodself-sufciencyversusfoodse-
    curity,aswellasglobalinvestmentsinlong-termfood
    securityinwater-restricteddrylands.
    Adedicatedinternationalframeworktoactuponthe
    pressingissueofwaterscarcityindrylandsaswell
    asDLDD-relatedwaterandlandissuesisurgently
    required.TheestablishmentofaWaterCompactfor
    Drylandshasbeenproposedasonesuchinterna-
    tionalpriorityaction.ExistingUnitedNations(UN)
    instrumentssuchastheUNConventiontoCombat
    DeserticationinthoseCountriesExperiencingSerious
    Droughtand/orDesertication,ParticularlyinAfrica
    (UNCCD),theUN-WaterandUN-Landinitiatives,and
    thepriorityoutcomesfromtheseventeenthsession
    UNCCD photo award 2005/Kushal Gangopadhyay
    CHAPTER28 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 622
    oftheUNCommissiononSustainableDevelopment
    shouldbepositionedtosupportanddrivesuchwork.
    28.2Thechallenge:Waterasakeyresource
    underpressureinthedrylands
    Thegrowthintheuseofthiswaterresourceshastend-
    edtobemuchgreaterthanthegrowthinthenumber
    ofpeople.Forexample,inthetwentiethcentury,the
    worldspopulationincreasedfourfold,whereasfresh-
    waterusageincreasedninetimesover(Lean,2009).
    Inadditiontothisincreasedusage,DLDDmeansthat
    naturalrechargeisreducedasthesoillosesitswa-
    terretentioncapacity(DGEnvironmentEuropean
    Commission,2007).andRainfallisalsoreducedin
    timesofdrought.Consequently,anumberofcoun-
    triesinthedrylandsareincreasinglyfacedwithwater
    scarcity.
    Waterscarcityistheimbalancebetweenavailable
    waterresourcesanddemands(UNCCD,2010),occur-
    ringwhenwaterresourcesareinsufcienttosatisfy
    long-termaveragerequirements.Thislong-termwater
    imbalanceiscausedbyacombinationoflowwater
    availabilityandalevelofwaterdemandexceedingthe
    naturalrecharge.Waterscarcityfrequentlyappears
    inareaswithlowrainfallbutalsoinareasafectedby
    DLDD,aswellasinareaswithhighpopulationden-
    sityandintensiveagricultureand/orindustrialactivity,
    particularlyinthedrylands.Largespatialandtemporal
    diferencesintheamountofwateravailableareob-
    servedacrossthedrylands.DrylandproblemsofDLDD
    andwaterscarcity,amongothers,putimmensepres-
    sureonthemanagementofwaterresources.
    Waterscarcity,whethernaturalorhuman-induced,
    servestotriggerandexacerbatetheefectsofdeser-
    ticationthroughdirect,long-termimpactsonland
    andsoilquality,soilstructure,organicmattercontent,
    andultimatelyonsoilmoisturelevels.Thedirectphysi-
    calefectsoflanddegradationincludethedryingup
    offreshwaterresources,anincreasedfrequencyof
    droughtandsandandduststorms,andagreateroc-
    currenceofoodingduetoinadequatedrainageor
    poorirrigationpractices.Shouldthesetrendscontinue,
    FIGURE 28.2
    Theextentofdrylandsystemsworldwide
    Notes: Overall 41.3% of the global terrestrial areas are categorized as drylands and 34.7% of the global population lived in drylands in 2000.
    The long-term mean of the ratio of an areas average annual precipitation to its average annual potential evapotranspiration is the Aridity Index (AI).
    Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005, appendix A, p. 23, from data sources cited therein).
    WWDR4 623
    DESERTIFICATION,LANDDEGRADATIONANDDROUGHT
    ANDTHEIRIMPACTSONWATERRESOURCESINTHEDRYLANDS
    itwouldbringaboutasharpdeclineinsoilnutrients,
    acceleratingthelossofvegetationcover.Thisinturn
    leadstofurtherlandandwaterdegradation,suchas
    pollutionofsurfaceandgroundwater,siltation,andthe
    salinizationandalkalizationofsoils.
    28.2.1Anintroductiontodrylandsoftheworld
    Deserticationislanddegradation,resultingfromvari-
    ousfactorsincludingclimaticvariationsandhumanac-
    tivities.DLDDareconceptsmainlyassociatedwith,but
    notexclusiveto,drylandareasaroundtheworld.Over
    60countriesarecharacterizedbydrylandecosystems
    (Table28.1)withprevailinghyper-arid,aridanddry
    subhumidclimaticconditions.Theyarecategorizedus-
    ingtheAridityIndex(AI)whichisthelong-termmean
    oftheratioofanareasaverageannualprecipitationto
    itsmeanannualpotentialevapotranspiration.For17of
    thesecountries,drylandsaccountformorethan90%
    oftheirlandarea.Overall,41.3%oftheglobalterres-
    trialareaiscategorizedasdrylandsand34.7%ofthe
    globalpopulationlivedindrylandsin2000(Figure
    28.2)(MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005).
    Indrylands,waterisusuallythemostimportantlimit-
    ingresourceforbothecosystemsandhumanand
    economicdevelopment.Poormanagementofdrylands
    ecosystemsleadstodeserticationandlanddegra-
    dation,andtoincreasingandlong-termlossofpro-
    ductivity(UNCCD,1994).Linkageswithnaturalwater
    limitation,unsuitablewatermanagementpracticesand
    negativefeedbackloops,aswellasinterconnectivity
    betweenlanddegradationandwaterresources,often
    exacerbateunsustainableuseofwater.
    Althoughseveraldrylandcountriesarecountedas
    amongthewealthiestglobally,endowedastheyare
    withnon-renewablenaturalresourcessuchasoil,dia-
    mondsanduranium,mostdrylandcountrieshavealow
    GDP,andrankpoorlyintermsoftheirHDI(Table28.1).
    Thehighdependenceofdrylandsinhabitantsonthe
    naturalresourcebasemeansthattheyarevulnerable
    tolanddegradation.
    28.2.2Watersourcesandtheirsustainabilityinthe
    drylands
    Sourcesofwaterinthedrylandsusuallyconsistofsur-
    facewater,groundwater(includingfossilgroundwater)
    andrainfall.Averageannualrainfallinthedrylandsis
    relativelylowindrysubhumidareasandisevenlower
    forotherdrylandstypes.Inhotaridclimates,muchof
    theprecipitationislosttoevapotranspirationdueto
    extremelyhightemperatures.Forexample,datacol-
    lectedinsouthernAfricasuggestthatlessthan3%of
    precipitationactuallycontributestogroundorsurface
    waterrecharge,lessthan1%ofprecipitationcontri-
    butestoaquiferandgroundwaterrecharge,andap-
    proximately2%contributestosurfacewater(perennial
    andephemeralrivers,wetlandsanddams)through
    runof.Henceonlyasmallpercentage(approximately
    17%)isproductivelyusedforecosystemmaintenance
    andrain-fedproductionsystems(Heynsetal.,1998;
    Schlesinger,1997).
    Aswaterdemandindrylandsusuallyexceedswa-
    teravailability,localinhabitantsdependlargelyon
    groundwater,obtainingtheirwatersupplythrough
    boreholesandwells,althoughsmall-scalerainwater
    harvestingalsotakesplace.Inareaswherelargerset-
    tlementsandcities(withassociatedindustries)are
    situated,waterdemandfrequentlyexceedsavailabil-
    ity.Insuchcases,groundwateravailabilitydetermines
    whetherlocalwatersupplyisaccessibleandsustain-
    able.Inmanyinstancesexcessivewatermininghas
    alreadytakenplaceandexistingsourcesofwater
    havebeendepletedwithoutreplenishment.Incertain
    countries,alternativewatersourcesaresoughtfrom
    otherareas,bypipeline,orthroughthedesalination
    ofseawater.
    Waterresourcesinvariouswatershedsindrylandsare
    alreadyconsideredhighlyoverutilized.Ananalysis
    projectingwatersupplydatafortheyear2025in
    watercatchmentsindrylandsworldwidepresentsa
    disturbingpicture.Accordingtotheanalysis,seven
    majorbasinsinthedrylandsmostlyinAsia,andone
    largebasininAfricaandanotherinNorthAmerica
    areexpectedtoexperiencewaterscarcityby2025
    (Figure28.3)andfourteenmajorwatershedsare
    projectedtobewaterstressedby2025.Intotal,halfof
    themajorwatershedsinvestigatedinthedrylandsare
    predictedtoexperiencesometypeofwatershortage
    inthecomingyears(WhiteandNackoney,2003)
    exacerbatedbytheanticipatedclimaticchangesin
    drylandareasaroundtheworld.
    28.2.3Primaryhumanwaterrequirementactivities
    andlimitationsindrylands
    Theimportanceofaccesstosafewaterwasconrmed
    inthe64thUNGeneralAssemblyresolution(UN,2010),
    whichexplicitlyrecognizedaccesstosafeandclean
    waterandsanitationasahumanright.Theprimaryhu-
    manwaterrequirementactivitiesarefordrinkingwater,
    CHAPTER28 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 624
    TABLE 28.1
    GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)percapitaandHumanDevelopmentIndicesofcountrieswithdrylandsareas
    #
    Country with
    dryland areas
    Total land
    area (km2)
    Percentage of
    total dryland
    surface area
    (if exceeding 90%)
    a
    GDP (PPP)
    per capita
    (US$) HDI Population
    1 Afghanistan 647 500 94.0 $800 0.352 28 395 716
    2 Albania 27 398 $6 300 0.818 3 639 453
    3 Algeria 2 381 740 $7 000 0.754 34 178 188
    4 Angola 1 220 000 $8 900 0.564 12 799 293
    5 Argentina 2 736 690 $13 800 0.866 40 913 584
    6 Armenia 28 454 98.1 $5 900 0.798 2 967 004
    7 Australia 7 617 930 $38 911 0.970 21 262 641
    8 Azerbaijan 86 100 $10 400 0.787 8 238 672
    9 Botswana 585 370 100.0 $13 100 0.694 1 990 876
    10 Bulgaria 110 550 $12 600 0.840 7 204 687
    11 Burkina Faso 273 800 100.0 $1 200 0.389 15 746 232
    12 Chad 1 259 200 $1 600 0.392 10 329 208
    13 China 9 326 410 $6 600 0.772 1 338 612 968
    14 Egypt 995 450 $6 000 0.703 78 866 635
    15 El Salvador 20 720 $7 100 0.747 7 185 218
    16 Eritrea 121 320 $700 0.472 5 647 168
    17 Ethiopia 1 119 683 $900 0.414 85 237 338
    18 Gambia 100 000 97.2 $1 400 0.456 1 778 081
    19 Greece 130 800 $32 100 0.942 10 737 428
    20 India 2 973 190 $3 100 0.612 1 156 897 766
    21 Iran 1 636 000 90.2 $12 900 0.782 66 429 284
    22 Iraq 432 162 99.9 $3 600 0.583 28 945 569
    23 Israel 20 330 $28 400 0.935 7 233 701
    24 Jordan 91 971 $5 300 0.770 6 269 285
    25 Kazakhstan 2 669 800 99.1 $11 800 0.804 15 399 437
    26 Kenya 569 250 $1 600 0.541 39 002 772
    27 Kuwait 17 820 92.9 $54 100 0.916 2 692 526
    28 Kyrgyzstan 191 300 $2 100 0.710 5 431 747
    29 Lebanon 10 230 $13 100 0.803 4 017 095
    30 Libya 1 759 540 $15 200 0.847 6 324 357
    31 Macedonia 24 856 $9 000 0.817 2 066 718
    32 Madagascar 581 540 $1 000 0.543 20 653 556
    33 Malawi 94 080 $900 0.493 15 028 757
    34 Mali 1 220 000 $1 200 0.371 13 443 225
    WWDR4 625
    DESERTIFICATION,LANDDEGRADATIONANDDROUGHT
    ANDTHEIRIMPACTSONWATERRESOURCESINTHEDRYLANDS
    Note: Three countries have been added to the original listing: Senegal, Gambia and Tunisia.
    a
    Data not available for countries with less than 90% dryland areas.
    Sources: Updated and revised after Harrison and Pearce (2000) and White and Nackoney (2003). Updated and additional information: HDI (2007)
    from UNDP (HDI indices provided on Wikipedia); GDP per capita (2009 estimate) from CIA (n.d.); and population (2009 estimate) from CIA (n.d.).
    #
    Country with
    dryland areas
    Total land
    area (km2)
    Percentage of
    total dryland
    surface area
    (if exceeding 90%)
    a
    GDP (PPP)
    per capita
    (US$) HDI Population
    35 Mauritania 1 030 400 $2 100 0.520 3 129 486
    36 Mexico 1 923 040 $13 500 0.854 111 211 789
    37 Moldova 33 371 99.9 $2 300 0.720 4 320 748
    38 Mongolia 1 554 731 $3 200 0.727 3 041 142
    39 Morocco 446 300 92.2 $4 600 0.654 31 285 174
    40 Mozambique 784 090 $900 0.402 21 669 278
    41 Namibia 825 418 90.8 $6 400 0.686 2 108 665
    42 Niger 1 266 700 $700 0.340 15 306 252
    43 Nigeria 910 768 $2 400 0.511 149 229 090
    44 Oman 212 460 $23 900 0.846 3 418 085
    45 Pakistan 778 720 $2 600 0.572 174 578 558
    46 Romania 230 340 $11 500 0.837 22 215 421
    47 Russia 16 995 800 $15 100 0.817 140 041 247
    48 Saudi Arabia 2 149 690 $20 400 0.843 28 686 633
    49 Senegal 192 000 94.1 $1 600 0.464 13 711 597
    50 Somalia 627 337 $600 0.284 9 832 017
    51 South Africa 1 219 912 $10 100 0.683 49 052 489
    52 Spain 499 542 $33 700 0.955 40 525 002
    53 Sudan 2 376 000 $2 300 0.531 41 087 825
    54 Syria 184 050 98.0 $4 600 0.742 21 762 978
    55 Tajikistan 142 700 $1 800 0.688 7 349 145
    56 Tunisia 155 360 93.7 $8 000 0.769 10 486 339
    57 Turkey 770 760 $11 200 0.806 76 805 524
    58 Turkmenistan 488 100 100.0 $6 900 0.739 4 884 887
    59 Ukraine 603 700 $6 400 0.796 45 700 395
    60 Uzbekistan 425 400 99.2 $2 800 0.710 27 606 007
    61 Venezuela 882 050 $13 100 0.844 26 814 843
    62 Yemen 527 970 $2 500 0.575 22 858 238
    63 Zimbabwe 386 670 $100 0.513 11 392 629
    CHAPTER28 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 626
    agriculture(foodproduction),industryanddomestic
    use.Wherewaterisalimitingresource,prioritiesneed
    tobesetamongcompetingusestomeettheessential
    requirements.canbemet.Thefollowingkeyrequire-
    mentactivitiescanbespecied.
    Drinking water
    Waterisrequiredforhumans,livestockandwildlife,
    andplantlife(excludingcropsandagriculturalpro-
    duction).Livestockproductioniscommoninthedry-
    lands,whererangelandstendtosupportlargeherds
    ofherbivoresifthereissufcientdrinkingwater.
    Domestic water requirements
    Basichumanneedsincludecleanandsafewaterfor
    washingandsanitation.Thehealthofpeopleisdi-
    rectlylinkedtotheavailabilityofcleanandsafewater.
    Waterscarcityinthedrylandsisamajorlimitingfac-
    torforhumanhabitationanditsunavailabilityleads
    todehydrationandultimatelythedeathoftheaf-
    fectedpeople.
    Agricultural water demand
    Inmostdrylandsregions,foodproductionforlocal
    consumptionortradeatahouseholdleveldepends
    largelyonrainfedagricultureorsmall-scaleirrigation
    basedonrainwaterharvestingtechnologies.Large-
    scaleirrigationsystemstendtobeunsustainablein
    mostdrylands,dependingonthesourceandman-
    agementofwater.Rainfedagricultureoftenperforms
    poorly,withhighproductionvariabilityasdetermined
    bythehighlyvariablerainfallpatterns.
    Industrial demand
    Ingeneral,water-dependentindustriesarenotap-
    propriateforthedrylands,andthiscanhavesevere
    negativeimpactsonnationaleconomies.Giventhe
    prevalenceofwaterscarcityinthedrylands,pro-
    motingwater-dependentindustriesbecomesdif-
    cult,unlesssustainablealternativesourcesofwater
    canbeaccessedandmanagedinanefcientway
    withoutcompromisingdomesticandagricultural
    waterneeds.
    28.2.4Globalandregionalwatermanagement
    policiesindrylands
    Watermanagementisacriticalaspectofdryland
    development.Asthelocalandregionalwatercycles
    areextremelysensitive,thebalancebetweendemand
    andsupplyhasoftenbeendisturbedandsevere
    FIGURE 28.3
    Projectedwatersupplyinmajorwatershedsindrylandsby2025:waterscarcitywillbeexacerbatedinmany
    keydrylandareasworldwide
    Source: White and Nackoney (2003).
    <1000(WaterScarce) 1000-1700(WaterStressed) >1700(SufcientQuantity) Drylands
    AnnualRenewableWater(m
    3
    /person/year)
    WWDR4 627
    DESERTIFICATION,LANDDEGRADATIONANDDROUGHT
    ANDTHEIRIMPACTSONWATERRESOURCESINTHEDRYLANDS
    relatetotransboundaryagreementswherewatersheds
    reachacrossnationalborders(Figure28.4).Also,pro-
    jectssuchasEveryRiverhasitsPeople(KCS,n.d.)
    workwithlocalcommunitiesonestablishingbasin
    managementcommitteesthatalsopromotesustaina-
    blelandmanagementpracticesalongtherivertocurb
    impactsofDLDDanditsdrivers(seeSection28.2for
    furtherdetails).
    28.3Desertication,landdegradationand
    drought:Drivers,risksanduncertainties,
    andhotspots
    28.3.1Driversofdesertication,landdegradationand
    droughtandwaterlinkages
    DLDDarecausedandexacerbatedbydiferentdrivers,
    relatingtonaturalphenomena,humanactivitiesand
    climatechange.Thecombinedefectsofdesertica-
    tion,landdegradationanddroughtresultinreduced
    waterresourcesavailabilityandaccessibility.Both
    groundandsurfacewatersystemsareafected.
    Natural phenomena
    Itisimportanttorecognizethatcertaingeographic
    areasarenaturallyarid.Itisnormalfortheseareasto
    beexposedtohighlyvariableandextremeclimates,
    depletionofthewaterresourceshaveoccurred.Land
    andwateruseconictsoftenarise.Wheretrans-
    boundarydisagreementsoccur,capacitydevelop-
    mentincollaborativemanagementofthescarcewa-
    terresourcesisneededinordertoavoidthepotential
    escalationofthesedisagreementsintomajorpolitical
    crises.
    MigrationrelatedtoDLDDandwaterhasalready
    beenobservedandcouldpotentiallyaccelerateinthe
    future.Watermanagementmuststartatthelocallev-
    el.Indrylands,priorityshouldbegiventostrongin-
    vestmentinlocallyadaptedtechnicalandtechnologi-
    calsolutions,alongwithappropriatepolicy-makingat
    nationalandinternationallevels,toensureimproved
    wateruseefciency.Waterpoliciesmustbebasedon
    theavailabilityoftheresource,whichhastobeprop-
    erlyandeconomicallyvalued.(Seeamoredetailed
    overviewofrelevantpolicyinstrumentsandexam-
    plesofresponsesthathelptoreducetheimpactsof
    DLDDonwaterresourcesandaddresswaterscarcity
    laterinthischapter.)
    Currentlytherearenumerousregionalandglobalwa-
    termanagementpoliciesinplace.Thesepoliciesoften
    FIGURE 28.4
    Worldsmajorwatersheds
    Note: Watersheds that are situated in key dryland areas are indicated in yellow. Most of these watersheds are transboundary.
    Source: World Resources Institute (http://earthtrends.wri.org/images/maps/P1_22_LG.GIF).
    CHAPTER28 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 628
    anddroughtsareacommonphenomenonthatresults
    inwaterscarcitybeingexperienced.Suchdrylandar-
    easarelimitedintheirproductionpotentialandhave
    developedspecicadaptivecharacteristicsshapedby
    long-termclimaticconditions,geomorphologicalcir-
    cumstancesandearthhistory,resultinginstrongvaria-
    tionsandshiftsintheevolvementandgeographicposi-
    tionofdrylandsbeingobservedthroughthemillennia.
    Human activities
    Manydrylandshavebeencharacterizedbyaculture
    ofhumanactivitiesbeinginharmonywithnature.
    However,highhuman-relatedpressureonnaturalre-
    sourceshasincreasinglyledtodeserticationandland
    degradationsymptoms,whichmaybeirreversibleor
    mayleadtothelong-termlossofproductivepoten-
    tialandincreasedwaterscarcity.Poorandinadequate
    landmanagementpractices,thatareinsensitivetothe
    naturallimitationsandecologicalprocessesofdryland
    ecosystems,coupledwithfrequentandoftensevere
    droughts,frequentlyleadtoseveredeserticationand
    landdegradationandhencewaterscarcityastheland
    losesitswaterretentioncapacity.Thisphenomenon
    alsoholdstruefornon-aridsystems.Increasedde-
    mandsontheproductivityofdrylandsrelatedtothe
    developmentaspirationsoflocalpeopleandgovern-
    mentsandincreasedpopulationswhoaredependent
    onthelimitednaturalresourcebaseandtheapplica-
    tionofinefcientlandmanagementpracticeshaveled
    todrylandsthatarelessandlessinhabitable.
    FIGURE 28.5
    Projectedimpactsofclimatechangeonperennialdrainagedensity
    Notes: Efects of a 10% reduction in rainfall on perennial drainage density by 20702099. (A) Rainfall regimes at the end of the twentieth
    century; (B) map of Africa showing predicted change in precipitation; and (C) numbers indicate selected locations for which the efect on
    perennial drainage density has been calculated.
    Source: de Wit and Stankiewicz (2006), reproduced with permission from AAAS.
    Dropby10-20%
    Dropbyupto10%
    Increasebyupto10%
    Increaseby10-20%
    A
    C
    B
    25%increase
    nochange
    25%lost
    50%lost
    75%lost
    nodrainage
    Annualrainfallinaregion(mm)
    200 0 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
    Lessthan400mm 400800mm Morethan800mm
    C
    Le
    WWDR4 629
    DESERTIFICATION,LANDDEGRADATIONANDDROUGHT
    ANDTHEIRIMPACTSONWATERRESOURCESINTHEDRYLANDS
    Climate change
    Globallypredictedclimaticchangeswillposedif-
    feringrisksandopportunitiesindiferentdryland
    regionsoftheworld.Inbroadcategories,climatic
    changewillleadtoeither/and/orincreases/decreases
    intemperaturesandprecipitation,afectingevapora-
    tionrates,wateravailabilityandtolerancelevelsof
    speciclivestock,cropplants,andotherelementsof
    thenaturalecosystems.Theoccurrenceofmoreex-
    tremeweathereventssuchasprolongedandmore
    severedroughts,unprecedentedextremeooding
    eventsinnormallyaridareas,andseasonalshiftsof
    knownweatherpatterns(forexamplechangestothe
    onsetofrainyseasonsandshorteningofgrowing
    seasons)poseenormouschallengestoecosystems.
    Essentialecosystemservicesareafectedbyclimate
    change,leadingtoDLDD.Thedifcultyofcopingand
    adaptingtoclimaticchangesoftenworsensdeserti-
    cationandlanddegradationandposesamajorman-
    agementchallenge.Theimpactsofclimatechange
    onwaterthatis,changesingroundwaterrecharge
    andrunofincatchmentareasareexpectedtobe
    signicantandleadtoboththedryingupofaquifers
    and/orashoodsandoodinginotherareas.Major
    changesarepredictedinthedynamicsofperennial
    riversinAfrica(Figure28.5),wheremajorooding
    disastersarealreadyoccurringmorefrequently,while
    elsewhererivercoursesaredryingup.
    28.3.2Risksanduncertainties:Theimpactof
    desertication,landdegradationanddroughton
    waterresourcesavailability,qualityandaccessibility
    DLDDdirectlyafectsandworsensalreadycritical
    waterresources,especiallyindrylands.Overuseand
    depletionoflimitedwaterresourcesarealreadyanis-
    sue,butthedirectefectsofDLDDfurthernegatively
    impactontheresourcebringingwithittherisksand
    uncertaintiesdescribedbelow.
    Lower recharge of groundwater and changed runof
    Soilcompactionandchangesinsoil,vegetationandsoil
    faunalparametersdirectlyafecttherechargerateof
    groundwaterandwaterdynamicsinecosystems(FAO,
    2002).Itiswellknownthatdeforestationincatchment
    areasleadstoalteredrunofregimes,disturbingthe
    naturalwaterrechargeandstorageinecosystems.On
    asmallerscale,waterinltrationratesaredisturbedby
    unsustainablelandusepractices,whichhavealteredsoil
    faunalassociationsandthebalanceofincorporatingsoil
    organicmatter(SOM)backintosoils,negativelyafect-
    ingsoilwaterholdingcapacities(Box28.1).
    Thedegradationoflandbyphysicalcompactionof
    soilsforexamplethroughtramplingbylivestock,
    sealingofsoilsurfacesbybuildingsorindustrialactivi-
    ties,ormovementsoftractorsallhavenegativeef-
    fectsonthepercolationofwaterintotheground.Soil
    compactioncreatesmoreimpervioussurfacesthatdo
    notallowpercolationofthewaterdownthroughthe
    soilintotheaquifer.Iftheinltrationcapacityofthe
    soilisreducedorifvegetationhasbeenremovedon
    alargescalethenpeakowsoroodsincrease
    (Calder,1998).
    Thisreductioninsoilinltrationcapacityincreas-
    essurfacerunof.Surfacerunofcauseserosionof
    theearthssurface,includingsplash,gully,sheetor
    streambederosion.Withincreasedrunof,wateris
    insteadforceddirectlyintostreamsorstorm-water
    runofdrains,reducinggroundwaterrecharge,thus
    loweringthewatertableandmakingdroughtsworse,
    DLDDoftenleadstoadestructionofhealthysoilbiologi-
    calproperties,whichinturnnegativelyafectsthesoils
    waterholdingcapacities.Waterpercolationandhold-
    ingcapacitiesofsoilsareessentialforallowingrainwa-
    tertoinltrateintothegroundandeventuallycontribute
    togroundwaterrecharge.Thelossofbiodiversityinsoil
    fauna,throughtheoccurrencesofdeserticationandland
    degradation,leadstothedisturbanceofcriticalbiogeo-
    chemicalandphysicalsoilprocessessuchassoilwaterin-
    ltrationandholdingcapacity.Soilfaunaimprovesphysi-
    calsoilpropertiessuchasmacroporosity,thusincreasing
    soilwaterinltrationcapacity(LeonardandRajot,2001;
    Mandoetal.,1999).Forexample,termitesandants,which
    dominatedrylandsoilmacrofaunalinvertebrates,translo-
    cateorganicmaterialsuchaspiecesofgrassstalks,leaves
    andwoodintothesoil,wherethesematerialsarebroken
    downbyvarioussoilorganismsintosoilorganicmat-
    ter(SOM).SOMiscriticalforenhancingthewaterhold-
    ingcapacityofsoils.Soilfaunamodifythesoilandlitter
    environmentplayingakeyroleinSOMtransformations
    andnutrientdynamicsatdiferentspatialandtemporal
    scalesthusafectingthesoilsphysicalproperties,nutri-
    entcycling,waterretentioncapacityandplantgrowth
    (BhadauriaandSaxena,2010).Ifsoilfaunalassemblages
    aredisturbedthroughDLDD-relatedimpacts(e.g.over-
    stocking,inappropriateuseofinsecticides)thesoilsphys-
    icalandchemicalpropertieswillbenegativelyafected
    resultinginnegativeimpactsonwaterbalances.
    BOX 28.1
    Roleofsoilfaunainmaintainingsoilwaterholding
    capacities
    CHAPTER28 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 630
    especiallyforfarmersandotherswhodependonthe
    waterwells.
    Degradation of water resources and the environment
    DLDDcancreateimportantimpactsonwaterqual-
    ity,whichinturnmayhavenegativeefectsondown-
    streamusesofwater(FAO,1993,2002).Theseimpacts
    canincludechangesinsedimentloadandtheconcen-
    trationofnutrients,salts,metalsandagrochemicals;
    theinuxofpathogens;andachangeinthetempera-
    tureregime.Wherepoorlandmanagementpractices
    prevail,increasedloadsofnitrogen,phosphorusand
    relatednitrateandphosphateconcentrationsresultin
    severeeutrophicationofwatersources.Pathogenic
    bacteriainsurfacewaterswillincreaseasaconse-
    quenceofripariangrazingorwasteinuxfromlive-
    stockproduction.Pesticidesandpersistentorganic
    pollutantsmayndtheirwayintowatercoursesinar-
    easwhereDLDDefectsarehigh,forexamplethrough
    soilerosionandincreasedrunof.
    Turbidity, sedimentation and siltation
    Soilerosionisamajormanifestationofdesertica-
    tionandlanddegradation.Soilistransportedbyrunof
    orwindintowatersources,suchasriversandthesea,
    causingthelossofvaluabletopsoilandaddingsedi-
    mentthatcanproduceturbidityinsurfacewaters.This
    soillossandsedimentation,andtheefectsofturbid-
    itysuchaslimitedpenetrationofsunlight,destroysthe
    naturalhabitatoffaunaandoraintherivers(FAO,
    2002),changingbiodiversitypatternsandleadingto
    alossoffreshwatershstocks.Inextremecasesof
    changedclimaticconditionscombinedwithpoorman-
    agementofwaterresourcesandDLDD,thecomplete
    siltationanddryingupofentirecatchmentsandriver
    systemshasbeenobserved.
    Salinity
    Salinizationofsoilsandwaterresourcesisamajor
    problemrelatedtodeserticationandlanddegrada-
    tion.Anincreaseinsalinityofsurfaceandgroundwa-
    tertendstohavedetrimentalefectsondownstream
    waterusessuchasirrigationordomesticwatersupply.
    Irrigationanddrainageactivitiescanleadtoincreased
    salinityofsurfaceandgroundwaterasaconsequence
    ofevaporationandtheleachingofsaltsfromsoils.This
    isofspecialconcerninaridareas,wheresubsurface
    drainagewateralwayshashighersaltconcentrations
    andhighersodiumabsorptionratesthansupplywater
    forirrigation.Irrigationconsequentlyleadstoasurfac-
    ingandconcentrationofsalts.
    Water scarcity
    Waterscarcityposesamajorthreattodrylands.
    Drylandsarewater-constrainedecosystemswhere
    maintainingthebalancebetweenwaterdemand
    andsupplycanbeverychallenging.Whenabstract-
    ingwaterforhumanuseitisalwaysimportantto
    allowforanecologicalreservetoretainsufcient
    waterresourcesthatareneededformaintainingun-
    derlyingecosystemservices.Intheeventofwater
    scarcityandthesubsequentfailureofwaterscar-
    citymanagementplans,agriculture,whichisoften
    thelargestconsumerofwater,isthemostafected,
    translatingintomillionsofdollarsinlostincome,
    particularlyineconomiesthathaveastrongagricul-
    turebase.Simultaneously,withthefailureofagri-
    culturalproduction,foodsecurityisthreatenedand
    hungerandmalnutritionbecomeinevitableinpoor
    drylandcountries.
    28.3.3Desertication,landdegradationanddrought
    hotspotsanddegradationofwaterresourcesin
    drylands
    GeographichotspotsofDLDDareprevalentacross
    thedrylandsoftheworld(Figure28.2).Countries
    withlowGDPandHDIs(Table28.1)areparticularly
    vulnerablebecauseinterventionsareoftencostly.
    Drylandareaswithhighpopulations,orwhichare
    connectedtohighpopulationdensityareasdown-
    stream,arepronetolanddegradationandtheas-
    sociatednegativewaterimpacts.Figure28.4dis-
    playsmajorwatershedssituatedindrylandareas.
    AccordingtoWhiteandNackoney(2003),several
    ofthesemajorwatershedsarealreadyfacingwater
    scarcity(centralandeastAsia,southernandeastern
    Africa,centralNorthAmerica)anditisprojectedthat
    inthefutureseveralofthemwillbefurthernega-
    tivelyafectedbytheimpactsofclimatechange.For
    example,Figure28.5projectsclimatechangeinduced
    impactsondrainageinAfrica,negativelyafectingat
    least65%ofthecontinent.Suchprojectionsoverlay
    areasofDLDDinAfrica,wheresevereinterlinkedim-
    pactsonecosystemsandecosystemservices,popula-
    tionsandeconomiescanbeforeseen.
    Itmustbehighlightedthat,inadditiontoitsscarcity,
    naturallyavailablewaterresourcesinmostdrylands
    areoftenmismanaged.Exorbitantdevelopmentexpec-
    tationsinsuchareasleadtounsustainableexploitation
    ofexistingwatersources.Inappropriatelanduseslead
    toDLDDanddegradationofnaturalresourcesinclud-
    ingwater.Improvingwateruseefciencyisaserious
    WWDR4 631
    DESERTIFICATION,LANDDEGRADATIONANDDROUGHT
    ANDTHEIRIMPACTSONWATERRESOURCESINTHEDRYLANDS
    challenge.Seekingalternativewaterprovision
    (e.g.large-scaledesalinationofseawater,long-
    distancetransportationofwaterviacanalsandpipe-
    lines)hasalsoledtoanexacerbationofDLDDissues,
    promotingincompatiblelandusessuchasoverstock-
    ingoflivestockleadingtoachangeinvegetationcover
    anddegradationofsoils.
    28.4Potentialresponsestosavethe
    drylandsandtheirpopulations
    Currentmajordrylandschallengesinclude(a)pov-
    erty,(b)foodcrises(foodinsecurityandfamine),(c)
    droughtandwaterscarcity,(d)climatechange,(e)
    lossofbiodiversity,(f)deforestation,(g)energychal-
    lenges,and(h)environmentallyforcedhumanmigra-
    tion.Inlightofthesechallenges,onecannotfailtosee
    thattheneedtoaddressdeserticationandlanddeg-
    radationinthedrylandsisimperative.Indeed,where
    economic,social,politicalandgeographicassetshave
    becomehighlyvirtual,mobileanddynamic,itiseasy
    tolosesightofthehumaninterconnectednessofso-
    cio-economicassetssuchaslandandwaterresources.
    Waterscarcityinthedrylandshasaninevitablenega-
    tiveimpactonsustainabledevelopment,hamperslocal
    governanceandexacerbatessocialconicts.
    Thefutureproductivityanddevelopmentoptionsof
    thedrylandsaredramaticallyafectedbyboththelow
    andfurtherdiminishingwaterresourcesindrylands
    andtheDLDDimpactsexacerbatingwaterscarcityand
    quality.Theseefectsarediscernibleontheenviron-
    ment,socialsystemsandeconomiesofthedrylands.
    Althoughexpectedclimatechangeimpactsmayim-
    provewaterbalancesinsomeregions,otherdryland
    areaswillcertainlyhavetodealwithworseningwater
    situations,andallregionswillhavetobeabletoman-
    agechangethroughnumerousstrategicresponseop-
    tionstothewaterchallenges.Someoftheseoptions
    areoutlinedinthefollowingsections.
    28.4.1Strategicapproaches
    Securingwaterresourcesinthedrylandsrequiresan
    integratedapproachtothemanagementofthenatural
    environmentandassociatednaturalresources,which
    takesintoaccountallfactorsinuencingdecisionson
    landandwaterresourcesuseatlocal,nationalandre-
    gionallevels.Itrequirespartnershipbuildingbetween
    diferentsectorsofgovernmentsandsocieties,inter-
    nationalagencies,scienticcommunities,non-govern-
    mentalorganizations,bilateralagencies,andothersto
    tacklethecomplexityofsecuringwaterresources.In
    tandem,anumberofpoliciesandtechnologicalmeas-
    uresandinnovationsshouldbeemployedtomitigate
    waterscarcityinthedrylands.
    Innovations in water management and technology to
    cope with water scarcity
    Costofandpaymentforwater
    Thetraditionofhavingfreeorheavilysubsidizedwater
    forlivestock,irrigationanddomesticusehaswrong-
    lycreatedtheimpressionthatwaterisplentifuland
    oflowvalue.Thisbringsaboutaneedtoreducethe
    excessivedemandandimprovewateruseefciency
    throughpromotingefcientwaterusepracticesand
    properresourceuseplanningandmanagement,and
    throughthepropercostingandvaluationofthislimit-
    edresource.Payingforwaterisanincreasinglyaccept-
    edconcept,eveninruralcommunities(seeChapter23,
    Valuingwater).Costsusuallycoverthedeliveryand
    supplyofwater.Externalcosts,suchascostsassoci-
    atedwiththesustainabilityoftheresource,areoften
    notfullyincorporatedintoexistingpricingsystems.
    Opportunitycosts,athirdcategoryofcosts,refersto
    thefactthatwehaveconictingwaterusedemands
    andcertainpeople/industriesmaylosetheopportu-
    nitytodosomethingbecausethelimitedwaterhas
    beenusedinotherways.
    Developmentofnewwaterresources
    Innovationintermsofdevelopingandnegotiatingnew
    waterresourcesisimportantforthedrylandcoun-
    tries.Whilstinvestmentsindesalinationplantsand
    improvedtransfersfromotherareas(e.g.bypipelines)
    areoneavenue,othersincludeimprovedrecyclingand
    improvedtransboundarymanagementofexistingre-
    sources.Someimpressiveexamplesoftechnological
    solutionscomefromtheMiddleEast,andmodelsof
    collaborationandapplicationofnewtechnologiesare
    availablefromelsewhere,forexampleGermanyand
    otherEU-countries.
    Desertication,landdegradationanddroughtin-
    vestinginsustainableecosystemservices
    Valuationofecosystemserviceshasproventobea
    reasonableconceptalthoughitisnotyetfullyem-
    bracedbymostwaterprovidersandusers(Box28.2;
    seealsoChapter21,Ecosystems).Placinganad-
    equatevalue/priceonecosystemservicesiscritical
    toensuringlong-termsustainableuseandmanage-
    mentofniteresourcessuchaswater(Emertonand
    Bos,2004;Smithetal.,2006).IntheDLDDcontext,
    maintenanceofcriticalecosystemservicessuchas
    CHAPTER28 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 632
    thoseprovidedbywatershedsandassociatedveg-
    etationandsoilinteractionsmustbefullyconsidered.
    Relevantinvestmentstocurbthenegativeefectsof
    DLDDonwaterresourcesneedtobemadeandfully
    incorporatedintosuchvaluations.Ecosystemvalues
    thenneedtobetranslatedintowatermanagement
    decision-making.Forexample,economicvaluation
    (ofecosystemservices)isbestappliedtoanincre-
    mentalchangeandwithinapolicycontextsuchas
    DLDD.Todatethereismainlyaccesstocasestudy
    materialsthatillustratemethodsandactualvalues.
    Investmentinpolicy-relevantresearchisneededin
    mostcountriestoinformdecision-making.
    Investinginappropriateinnovations,technologies
    andinfrastructure
    Enhancingenvironmentalowandthuscurbingthe
    negativeimpactsofDLDDonwateravailabilityisone
    aspectofnewtechnologyandinfrastructuredevel-
    opment.Forexample,SouthAfricaintroducedthe
    WorkingforWaterprogramme(http://www.dwaf.
    gov.za/wfw/),wherescientistsandeldworkersuse
    arangeofmethodstocontrolaquaticinvasivealien
    plants.Thisprogrammeisoneexampleatechnologi-
    calintervention.Anotherexampleistheconstruction
    ofdams,eitherforwaterstorageorenergygeneration.
    Awiderangeofinnovationsareavailabletodaythat
    reducewateruseand/orloss,aswellasimprovethe
    soilsmoisturebalanceduetotheirimproveddesigns.
    Drylandscountriesexperiencingwaterscarcityneed
    toinvestinwaterusereductiontechniques,technolo-
    giesandinfrastructures.Theseincludehouseholdap-
    pliancessuchassanitationinstallationsthatshouldbe
    researched,developedandpreferentiallymarketed.
    Incentivemeasuresthatpromotethedevelopmentand
    useofsuchinnovationsmustberigorouslysupported.
    Apartfrominvestmentinwater-use-reductiontechnol-
    ogies,investmentsininnovationsthatcurbDLDD,par-
    ticularlyindrylands,mustbemadetoreducenegative
    impactsonthewaterbase.Regularlycitedexamples
    arethedevelopmentofagriculturalsystems,suchas
    improvedirrigationsystems,andimprovedwaterand
    soilmanagementtechnologiesatthefarmlevel.The
    appropriatemanagementofwaterdisposalandsanita-
    tionisanotherimportantissue,whichcanalsoleadto
    efcientuseofwaterthroughhighlyadvancedrecy-
    clingtechnologies.
    Investinginwaterandproductionsystemresearch,
    managementandpolicy-makingcapacitiesandad-
    dressingthelinkagestodesertication,landdegrada-
    tionanddrought
    Manydrylandcountriesaredevelopingnationswhere
    capacitydevelopmentisacriticalissueasisstrongly
    reectedintheUNCCDten-yearstrategy.Inaddition
    totheneedfortechnicalcapacities,whichpromote
    advancesintechnicalandtechnologicaldevelopment,
    capacitiesshouldbedevelopedatalllevelstoimple-
    mentandactonwaterandDLDD-relatedissues.There
    isaneedtobuildorstrengthennationalwaterand
    otherrelatedinstitutionswithadequatesupportand
    decentralizing.Thereisalsoaneedforlocallevelin-
    stitutionstoactonimmediatewatermanagementre-
    quirementsontheground(IzaandStein,2009).Many
    AccordingtoEngeletal.(2007),paymentforenviron-
    mentalservices(PES)isaninnovativemarket-based
    mechanism.Itisbasedontwinprinciplesthatthose
    benetingfromenvironmentalservicesshouldpayfor
    theirprovisionandthatthosewhoprovideenvironmen-
    talservicesshouldbecompensatedfordoingso.The
    Pro-poorRewardsforEnvironmentalServicesinAfrica
    initiativesupportedbytheWorldBank(www.worldbank.
    org)withtheWorldAgroforestryCentre(ICRAF)and
    partnersisworkingwithcommunitiesandgovernments
    onintroducingPESapproachesincludingforwatershed
    managementandconservation.Variousexamplesofpro-
    jectsintheirearlystagesexist.InKenya,Nairobirelies
    ondistantforestedcatchmentsforitswatersupplies,like
    othermajorcitiesinAfrica.Onesuchcatchmentisthe
    Sasumuawatershed,whichsupplies15%ofNairobiswa-
    terdemand.Landusechangesinupstreamareasofthe
    Sasumuawatershedhaveledtoincreasedsedimentation
    andwatercontamination(Porrasetal.,2008).Ensuring
    properhydrologicalfunctioningofthewatershedisof
    criticalimportancetothefuturewatersupplyofNairobi.
    Baselinestudieshaverecentlybeenundertakenthatwill
    guidedecision-makingandtheestablishmentofthePES
    mechanisminthewatershed(Vgen,2007).Learning
    fromexperiencesinothercountriessuchasCostaRica
    andColumbia,whichhavealreadyestablishedveryad-
    vancedPESmechanismsforwatersystems,isessential
    (Porrasetal.,2008).
    OnePESmechanismthathasbeentriedisthegreenwa-
    tercredits(GWC)concept.GWCoferatriedandtested
    meansofprovidingKenyawithfood,waterandpower
    security.GWCarepaymentsorrewardsforwaterandland
    managementservicesprovidedbyfarmers,whichinturn
    benetdownstreamusersbyprovidingthemwithbetter-
    qualitywaterandamorereliablesupply.
    BOX 28.2
    Approachestointroducingpaymentforecosystem
    servicesexamplesfromKenya
    WWDR4 633
    DESERTIFICATION,LANDDEGRADATIONANDDROUGHT
    ANDTHEIRIMPACTSONWATERRESOURCESINTHEDRYLANDS
    countriesaredevolvingwatermanagementstructures
    andinstitutionsstructuresthatarechargedwithman-
    agingdemand,maintaininginfrastructure,andcoordi-
    natingpaymentschedules(seechapters25,Waterand
    institutionalchange:Respondingtopresentandfuture
    uncertaintyand26,Developingknowledgeandcapac-
    ity).Thesestructuresshouldalsoaddresslandmanage-
    mentandDLDD-relatedwaterissues.Forexample,vil-
    lagesocietiesinIndiaoftenaddressintegratedagendas
    andmorerecentlyhavealsodealtwithclimatechange
    riskandpossibleadaptationmeasures(Box28.3).Itis
    clearthatsimilarcapacitiesneedtobebuiltinotherre-
    latedsectorsandproductionsystems,suchasagricul-
    tureandforestry.Cropresearch,forexample,needsto
    shiftfromconventionalagriculturetoamoreconserva-
    tion-efectiveagriculture,suchasadoptinganeco-agri-
    cultureoragro-ecosystemsapproach.
    Irrespectiveofthemeasures,itiscriticaltorecognize
    thatoutreachandengagementofthelocalfarmers
    andnaturalresourcemanagersisimperativeforthe
    successofanyintervention(seeBox28.3).Adoption
    pathwaysfortechnologiesaswellasimplementation
    ofpoliciesdependontheenduser,andsufcientef-
    fortmustbemadetoincludesuchusersinthedesign
    anddevelopmentofsolutions.Itisclearthatsuchout-
    reachisresource-intense,howeverwithoutthisextra
    efort,limitedprogresscanbemade.
    Water use efciency
    Wateruseefciencyindrylandsshouldconsiderreha-
    bilitationofdegradedlandsandconservationofwater
    catchmentareas,includingreducinglossesbylining
    channels,avoidingdirectevaporationandavoiding
    runofandpercolationlossesduetoover-irrigation.
    Evaporationfromthebaresoilshouldbereducedby
    appropriatepractices,suchasmulchingandapplying
    weedcontrolmeasures.Enhancementofcropgrowth
    byimplementingsustainablelandmanagementprac-
    ticesisalsoimportant,suchaschoosingsuitableand
    marketablecrops,consideringoptimaltimingfor
    plantingandharvesting,applyingoptimaltillageand
    greenmanures,andappropriatedrainagesystems.
    Reducingwaterwastage
    Avitalcontributiontomanagingwaterwiselyisthere-
    ductionofwaterlosses.Atalllevelsofgovernanceitis
    importantthatleakagesarereducedorprevented.This
    includessupportandknow-howforlocalcommunities
    toimplementintegratedstrategiesandforusingwater
    resourcesefcientlyandmaintainingwells,tapsand
    waterpointsingoodworkingconditions.Onalarger
    scale,nationalwatercarriers,storagedamsandother
    infrastructureneedtobewellmaintained,andsystems
    thathelpdetectunaccounted-forwaterlossesmustbe
    established.Innovativerecyclingandintegratedmulti-
    pleusesystemsespeciallyforlargerindustriesneedto
    bedesignedandimplemented.
    Sustainablelandmanagementpracticesinthe
    drylands
    Poorandunsustainablelandmanagementtechniques
    tendtoworsenlandandwaterresourcesdegradation.
    Recentestimatesindicatethatnearly2billionhectares
    oflandworldwideanareatwicethesizeofChina
    isalreadyseriouslydegraded,someofitirreversibly
    (FAO,2008).Over-cultivation,overgrazinganddefor-
    estationputgreatstrainonwaterresourcesbyreduc-
    ingfertiletopsoilandvegetationcover,andleadto
    greaterdependenceonirrigatedcropping.Observed
    efectsincludesiltationandreducedowinriversthat
    feedlargelakessuchastheAralSeaandLakeChad,
    leadingtothealarminglyfastretreatoftheshorelines
    Awatershedcanbedenedasacatchmentareafrom
    whichallwaterdrainsintoacommonarea,makingit
    asuitabletargetfortechnicalefortstomanagewater
    andsoilresources(Shiferawetal.,2008).Awatershed
    connectsvariouscommunitiessharingaspecicwater
    resourcedependingontheirspecicpositionwithinthe
    catchment.Inthelongrunthiscreatesinterdependencyin
    boththewatershedresourcesandusercommunities.
    Waterscarcityandlanddegradationresultingfromover-
    grazingwasalreadyaprobleminSukhomajrivillagein
    Indiainthe1970s.Localvillagers,withinstitutionalsup-
    port,establishedavillagesocietythatwasresponsible
    forplanningandimplementingconservationactivitiesin
    thevillageandlaterinsurroundingareas,leadingtothe
    rehabilitationandmoreefectiveuseofthefarmland.
    Participatorydecision-makingandtheestablishmentof
    formalgovernancestructuresinthevillageandlaterin
    thegreaterwatershedareahavebeenidentiedaskey
    instrumentsforsuccess.Evidenceandinformation-based
    decision-makingispromotedandvillagersaredirectly
    involvedinadaptivemanagement.Inthisvillage,sustain-
    ablelandmanagement(SLM)practiceswereintegrated
    withwatermanagementpracticesfromthebeginning.
    BOX 28.3
    Participatorywatershedmanagement:Acasefrom
    India
    Source: Centre for Science and Environment (1998); Porras and
    Neves (2006); and Porras et al. (2008).
    CHAPTER28 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 634
    ofthesenaturalreservoirsincentralAsiaandnorthern
    Africa,respectively.
    Itisfundamentalthereforetopromotesoil,waterand
    vegetationconservationandtoenhancemeasuresthat
    rehabilitate,conserveandprotectthenaturalenvi-
    ronment.Sustainablelandmanagementisoneofthe
    fewoptionsforsustaininglivelihoodsandgenerating
    incomewithoutdestroyingthequalityofthelandand
    thewaterresourceswhicharethebasisofproduction
    (Figure28.6).
    Theessenceofasustainablelandmanagementap-
    proachndsexpressioninthecoordinationofthesec-
    toralplanningandmanagementactivitiesconcerned
    withthevariousaspectsofland,landuseandwater
    resources(UNEP,2007).Initiativesforsustainableland
    managementareparticularlysignicantfordryland
    ecosystems,wherethemajorityofpeoplearestillen-
    gagedinprimaryagriculture,livestockproduction,for-
    estryandshery,andtheirlivelihoodandoptionsfor
    economicdevelopmentaredirectlylinkedtotheavail-
    abilityandqualityofthelandandwaterresources.
    Examplesofsustainablelandmanagementpractices
    fordroughtandwaterscarcitymitigationandadapta-
    tionarepresentedinBox28.4.
    Prioritizingtheuseofwaterindrylands
    Thecarefulprioritizationofwateruseismoreimpor-
    tantinthedrylandsthaninanyotherecosystems.
    Diferentlandusesplacediferentdemandsonwater
    andothernaturalresourcesandecosystemservices.
    Basedonthevaluationoftheseresources,in-country
    policydecisionsforwaterallocation,provisionand
    pricinghavetobemade.ExamplesfromIsraeland
    Namibiacalculatewateruseefciencyintermsofeco-
    nomicoutputpercubicmetreofwaterconsumed.Itis
    clearinbothcountriesthatirrigatedagriculturecon-
    sumesthemajorityofwatersupplied(inNamibia44%,
    inIsrael70%),whiletheeconomicreturnsmeasuredin
    contributiontothegrossnationalproductorincome
    generatedareextremelylow(Heynsetal.,1998).Itis
    Sub-SaharanAfricaispredictedtobehighlyafectedby
    droughtandwaterscarcityinthefaceofclimatechange.
    Existingenvironmentalproblemssuchasdesertication,
    landdegradation,oodsanddroughtsareexpected
    toworsenwithclimatechange.Thiswillbeachallenge
    tofarmersandcommunitiestoadjusttheirproduction
    systems.Sustainablelandmanagement(SLM)strategies
    andpracticesenablefarmersandcommunitiestobecome
    moreresilienttodroughtandwaterscarcitybyincreas-
    ingfoodproduction,conservingsoilandwater,enhancing
    foodsecurity,andrestoringproductivenaturalresources.
    Integratedlandandwaterresourcesmanagementtend
    topreventlanddegradation,restoredegradedlands,and
    reducetheneedforfurtherconversionofnaturalfor-
    estsandgrasslandstoagriculturalproduction(Woodne,
    2009),aswellasenhancingthesoilwaterretention
    capacity.
    OtherSLMpracticesthatarerelevanttomitigating
    droughtandwaterscarcityinclude:cropdiversication/
    intercropping;conservationtillageandconservationag-
    riculture;organicagriculture;integratedplantnutrient
    management;andintegratedplanandpestmanagement,
    zerotillagefarming,croprotation,mulchingandcropresi-
    duesutilizationandfallowing.
    Sustainablelandmanagementmakesitpossibletomini-
    mizeconictsandmakethemostefcienttrade-ofs,
    andtolinksocialandeconomicdevelopmentwithenvi-
    ronmentalprotectionandenhancement,thushelpingto
    achievetheobjectivesofsustainabledevelopment.
    BOX 28.4
    Usingsustainablelandmanagementpracticesto
    adapttoandmitigatetheefectsofdroughtand
    waterscarcity
    FIGURE 28.6
    Thesustainablelandmanagementvirtuous
    circleofimprovementstartswithlandcondition
    improvement
    Source: UNCCD (2010).
    Improved
    land
    ecosystems
    conditions
    More
    biomass
    Morefood
    Improved
    rain
    inltration
    More
    water
    available
    Increased
    water
    storagein
    soils
    WWDR4 635
    DESERTIFICATION,LANDDEGRADATIONANDDROUGHT
    ANDTHEIRIMPACTSONWATERRESOURCESINTHEDRYLANDS
    notablethatIsraelisregardedashavingoneofthe
    mostefcientirrigationsystemsintheworldandyet
    doesnotreapsignicanteconomicreturnsonwater
    investments.
    Policy changes needed in and for dryland countries
    Avarietyofsolutionsandstrategieshavebeendevel-
    opedtomitigatetheimpactsofwaterscarcity.These
    includeempoweringofexistinginstitutionscooperat-
    ingontransboundaryriverbasinswiththerequired
    authoritytoaddresswaterscarcityimpacts,through
    openingconsultations,poolingknowledgeandiniti-
    atingjointaction.Foryearstheintegratedlandand
    waterresourcesmanagement(ILWRM)principleshave
    beenpromotedtoenhancesustainablemanagement
    ofwaterresources.Managementofthefullcycleof
    water,wheregroundwaterandsurfacewaterarelinked
    withlandmanagement,hasalsocomeintothefold,
    withdecentralizationandthefullparticipationofall
    stakeholdersinthewatersectorconsideredimperative.
    Themajorgoalistoensurethedeliveryofenoughwa-
    tertoallcommunities.Therefore,setsofpolicytools
    areneededtohelpdecision-makersdesigntailored
    programmestodealwithwaterscarcity.Forexam-
    ple,incountrieswheredemandisdrivenlargelyby
    growthintheagriculturalsectorinthefaceofpopula-
    tiongrowth,themostcost-efectivepolicysolutions
    shouldbedominatedbyagriculturalmeasures,both
    inirrigatedandrainfedcropproduction.Incountries
    whereagricultureisexpectedtoaccountforlesswater
    demandhowever,whilehouseholdandindustryde-
    mandaccountforhigherconsumption,themostcost-
    efectivepolicysolutionswillincludesomeagricultural
    policymeasures,butalsoarangeofindustrialefcien-
    cymeasuresandcommonhouseholdmeasures.
    Waterdemandmanagement
    Waterdemandmanagementispartofanintegrated
    approachtowardsthesustainabledevelopmentand
    useofwaterresources.Thisinvolvesplanningandes-
    tablishingpoliciesforefcientuseofwater,economic
    efciencyandenvironmentalsustainability.Managing
    waterdemandcanreducewaterconsumption,delay
    theimplementationofadditionalwatersuppliesand
    infrastructure,andconservescarcewaterresources.
    Aspecialdrylanddebate:Foodself-sufciencyversus
    foodsecurity
    Asfoodandwaterneedscontinuetorise,itisbe-
    comingincreasinglydifculttosupplymorewaterto
    farmers.Thesupplyofeasilyaccessiblefreshwater
    resourcesislimitedbothlocallyandglobally.Inarid
    andsemi-aridregions,indenselypopulatedcountries
    andinmostoftheindustrializedworld,competition
    forwaterresourceshassetin.Inmajorfood-producing
    regions,scarcityofwaterisspreadingasaresultof
    climatechangeandincreasedclimatevariability.Inthe
    lightofdemographicandeconomicprojections,the
    freshwaterresourcesnotyetcommittedareastrategic
    assetfordevelopment,foodsecurity,thehealthofthe
    aquaticenvironmentand,insomecases,nationalse-
    curity(KoohafkanandSteward,2008).
    Manydrylandcountriesstillpursuenationalpolicies
    forfoodself-sufciency.Developingdrylandcountries
    inparticularareexposedtogreatdifcultieswhenit
    comestoassuringfood-security,especiallyforrural
    communitiesthreatenedbyfrequentdroughtsandthe
    impactsofDLDD.Althoughthesecommunitieslive
    largelytraditionallifestyles,whichareoftenverywell
    adaptedtotheprevailingclimaticconditions(includ-
    ingnomadic/migratorylifestyles),modernaspirations
    andsometimescontroversialgovernmentpolicies
    (e.g.forcedsettlementpolicies)haveleftsuchcom-
    munitiesextremelyvulnerable.Relevantalternatives
    andtoolsforplanningareneededtoassistwiththe
    prioritizationandselectionofthemostappropriate
    andsustainablewaterandresourceallocations.Under
    theprojectedmediumandlong-termclimatechange
    risksfordrylandareasaroundtheworld,debateson
    foodself-sufciencyorfoodsecurityaregainingnew
    signicanceandmustbeaddressedmoreanalytically
    toavoidentirenationsfacingaggravatedDLDDand
    eventuallyfamine,deterioratingdevelopmentpotential
    andincreasingpoverty.
    Globalinvestmentsinlong-termfoodsecurityindry-
    landswithwaterscarcity
    Howtoaddressfoodsecurityindrylandsexperienc-
    ingwaterscarcityisacomplexissue,andcountries
    areconfrontedwithdifcultpolicyanddevelopment
    options.Howeveraswateravailability,qualityandac-
    cessibilityareattheheartoflocalfoodproduction
    potentialandDLDDthreatsitbecomesimperative
    toexploreandsupportpromisingalternatives.Many
    countrieshavebeenadvisedtopromoteanddevelop
    secondaryandtertiaryindustries,aprocessthatis
    oftenaverydifcultundertakinginalreadymarginal-
    izedandpoorcountries.Whileitisdifcultenough
    tobuildupalternativeproductionindustriesinde-
    velopingcountrieswithlowhumancapacities,itis
    CHAPTER28 CHALLENGEAREAREPORTS 636
    alsodifculttosecurereliableandequitableinterna-
    tionalfoodandcommoditytradeconditionsthatare
    conducivetotherequirementsofdevelopingnations.
    Relevantin-countryandinternationalresponsesshould
    bepromotedtoassistdrylandcountriesindeveloping
    long-termfoodsecuritystrategiesatthesametime
    curbingthethreatsofDLDDandworseningwaterscar-
    cityconditions.
    Intandem,meetingfoodsecuritytargetsinthedry-
    landsrequirestheimplementationofsustainableag-
    riculturalpoliciesfromwhichlocalpopulationswould
    benetmost.Ascurrentirrigatedcroppingsystemsre-
    quirethegreatestshareofwaterinmostcountriesand
    demandisexpectedtorise14%inthenext30years
    (UNCCD,2010),adaptationtothisincreaseisvitaland
    willrequirevariabilityandexibility.Changestoland
    useandcroppingpatternsareoneoptionforadapta-
    tion.Lesswater-demandinganddroughttolerantcrops
    couldalsobeanalternative.No-tillage,whichisthe
    practiceofleavingresidueofthepreviousseasons
    cropsonfarmland,canincreasewaterinltrationwhile
    reducingevaporationaswellascontrollingwindand
    watererosion.Theuseofothersoilfertilizationand
    techniquessuchasbiocharwhichsimultaneously
    increasesretentionofsoilmoistureassociatedwith
    carbonsequestrationisalsopromising.
    Switchingfromannualtopermanentorsemi-permanent
    cropscouldbeanotheroption.Theadvantagesofsuch
    farmingincludereducingtillageenergyrequirements,
    limitedtopsoildisturbanceandsoilerosionprevention.
    Multi-annualcropsalsobringthebenetsofeasyaccess
    towaterandsoilnutrientsindeepsoillayers.Landuse
    changesshouldbeconsideredwherecurrentagricultur-
    alpatternsarenolongersustainableintermsofwater
    consumption.Rehabilitationandconversionofmarginal
    agriculturallandsintosuitablealternatives,suchasfor-
    estsorgrassland,canpreventfurtherlanddegradation
    andenhancesoilwaterretentioncapacityandregenera-
    tionofthelong-termfarmingpotentialoftheland.
    28.4.2Aninternationalframeworkonlandandwater
    Theneedtoaddresspressingdryland-specicwateris-
    suesisurgent.TheimpactofDLDDonwaterresources
    isamajorproblemandtheassociatedwaterscarcity
    inthedrylandsisofoverridingconcern,especiallyin
    thecontextoftheprojectedchangesinclimaticcondi-
    tions.Whileanumberofexpertinstitutionswithinthe
    UNaredealingwithrelevantindividualissues(water,
    land,foodsecurity,etc.),thereisapressingneedfor
    cooperationandagreementsattheinternationallevel
    toaddresstheproblemsofwaterscarcityspecically
    inthedrylands.Addressingandcoordinatingsuchspe-
    cicneedsthroughestablishing,forexample,awater
    compactfordrylandsandarelatedmulti-stakeholder
    dialoguecanbeuseful.
    Theimportanceofmulti-stakeholdercoordinationhas
    beenrecognizedwithintheUNsystem,bothforefec-
    tiveagendasettingandforthecoordinationofin-
    terconnectedissuessuchasefectivewaterandland
    managementforsustainabledevelopment.
    Severalrelevantcoordinationmechanismshavebeen
    launchedoverthepastyearsincludingUN-Water(www.
    unwater.org),whichwasestablishedin2003.UN-Water
    strengthenscoordinationandcoherenceamongUNen-
    titiesdealingwithissuesrelatedtoallaspectsoffresh
    waterandsanitation.SimilartotheUN-Waterapproach,
    membergovernmentscalledforacoherentUNsystem-
    wideresponsetothelandchallenges(UN-Land).AUN
    IssueManagementGroup(IMG)onlandwasestablished
    inSeptember2009foraperiodoftwoyears.TheIMG
    proposedoptionsforacoherentUNsystem-widecon-
    tributiontolandchallenges,includingtheimplementa-
    tionofthetenyearstrategicplanoftheUNCCD.The
    IMGalsopreparedaUNsystem-widerapidresponse
    reportondrylandshighlightingtheimportanceofkey
    emergingissuesontheglobalagenda,includingcli-
    matechange,foodsecurityandhumansettlements.In
    addition,theIMGpresentedoptionsforfollow-upac-
    tiononallissuesthatwereincludedasprioritiesinthe
    outcomesofthe17thsessionoftheUNCommissionon
    SustainableDevelopment.
    Conclusionsandrecommendations
    Waterscarcityinthedrylandsisanincreasinglypress-
    ingissuethatneedstoberecognizedandaddressed
    ontheinternationalagenda.Itisexacerbatedbythe
    negativeimpactsofDLDDontheavailability,quantity
    andqualityofwaterresources.AsDLDDimperatives
    taketheirtoll,watercrisesandscarcityareexpected
    tocontinueraisingethnicandpoliticaltensions,con-
    tributingtoconictswherewaterresourcesstraddleor
    delineatecountryborders.Insomecountries,deser-
    tication,landdegradationandtheassociatedwa-
    terscarcityinevitablyexacerbatesinternalmigrations,
    forcingwholevillagestoeetheirfarmsandmoveto
    alreadyovercrowdedcities.Inthenexttenyears,
    50millionpeopleareatriskofdisplacementifdeser-
    ticationisnotchecked.Implementingsustainable
    WWDR4 637
    DESERTIFICATION,LANDDEGRADATIONANDDROUGHT
    ANDTHEIRIMPACTSONWATERRESOURCESINTHEDRYLANDS
    landandwatermanagementpolicieswouldhelpto
    overcomethechallengeoftheseincreasinglyextreme
    situations.
    Theimpactofwaterscarcityvariesfromregiontore-
    gionandfromcountrytocountry.Countriesthathave
    thetechnicalandnancialcapacitytodealwiththe
    efectsofwaterscarcitytendtoexperiencelesssevere
    impactscomparedtopoorercountries.Theimpactsof
    waterscarcityarealsoexperienceddiferentlydepend-
    ingonwhetherthescarcityischronicandlong-term,
    periodicandunpredictable,orregionalandlocal.Clear
    supportmechanismsarerequiredtoaidthedrylands
    countries,especiallythosewithalreadyvulnerable
    economiesanddevelopmentchallenges,toaddress
    andinvestinmeasuresthatcanalleviatewaterscarcity
    inthefuture.Projectedclimatechangeimpactswill
    poseanincreasinglyseriousthreattohumanbeings
    anddevelopmentprospectsincertaindrylandsareas.
    Hotspotsinwhichworseningclimaticconditionsare
    expectedtoafectalreadyvulnerablewaterresources
    mustbeidentiedandrecognized,andurgentsupport
    measuresmustbeputintoplacetoaddressthewater
    crisesinsuchregions.
    DLDDimpactsonwaterresourcesareevidentand
    mustbeaddressedinanintegratedmannerwithon-
    goingSLMactivities.ILWRMisakeytoachieving
    longer-lastingdevelopmentadvancements.TheUN
    systemcanplayamajorroleinestablishingand
    coordinatingmultilateralactiononthewatercrisesin
    thedrylands.TheUNCCDisproposingestablishinga
    WaterCompactforDrylands,whichcouldbea
    suitabletooltogeneratethenecessarysupportfor
    addressingthispriorityissuewaterscarcity.

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    AuthorsAlbertWright,KodwoAndahandMichaelMutale
    AcknowledgementsDanielAdom,RobertoChionne,ChristineYoungAdjeiand
    StephenMaxDonkor(review)
    CHAPTER 29
    Africa
    FAO/GiulioNapolitano

    After decades of poor economic growth, Africa is now experiencing prospects of robust
    growth. But without innovative and concerted eforts, this will not be able to be sustained.
    As a result of natural and man-made challenges, the regions water resources are vastly
    underdeveloped.
    Although sub-Saharan Africa uses barely 5% of its annual renewable freshwater, access to
    improved water supply in both urban and rural contexts is still the lowest in the world. Lack
    of sanitation facilities is an even greater challenge to water management in Africa. If MDG
    Target 7c on drinking water and sanitation is to be achieved, the number of people served
    must more than double, from 350 million in 2000 to 720 million in 2015.
    If governments do not take immediate and radical action, the urban slum population in sub-
    Saharan African countries is expected to double, from 200 million in 2005, by 2020.
    The lack of access to adequate and safe drinking water and food security is not necessarily
    tied to the availability of water itself but rather to low adaptive capacity, lack of efective
    development strategies, lack of efective regional and subregional institutional frameworks,
    and economic and nancial constraints.
    Transboundary river basin management must nd ways of turning potential conicts
    into constructive cooperation and zero-sum predicaments in which one partys gain is
    anothers loss into winwin situations.
    WWDR4 641 AFRICA
    29.1Regionalissuesandrecent
    developments
    Africaishometo54countries.Itisaregioncharacter-
    izedbytransboundarywaters,withinternationalriver
    basinscoveringabout62%ofitslandarea.Theregion
    isalsoendowedwithpreciousindustrialandstrategic
    minerals.Yettheseresourcesremainlargelyunder-ex-
    ploited,leavingAfricaasoneofthepoorestandleast
    developedregionsoftheworld.Infact,economicper-
    formancefromthemid-1970stotheearly1990swas
    sopoortheperiodwasdubbedthelostdecade.
    However,inrecentyearsthissituationhaschangedfor
    thebetter.Analysisby The Economist(2011)revealsthat
    intherstdecadeofthenewmillennium,leadingupto
    2010,tenofthefastestgrowingeconomiesintheworld
    wereinAfrica.Therearealsopositiveindicatorsshowing
    thatfar-reachingeconomicreformsadoptedacrossthe
    regionhavebeguntoyieldpositiveresultsinmanyofits
    countries.NegativeGDPgrowthshavegivenwaytopro-
    gressivelyincreasinggrowthacrosstheregion,averaging
    aroundthemeanguresfordevelopingcountries
    (Figure29.1).IntermsofpercapitaGDPgrowth,however,
    Africaisstillfarbehindallotherregions(Figure29.2).
    Hence,initsOutlookforAfricadocumentAfricas Pulse,
    theWorldBank(2011)reportsthat,priortothepresent
    worldwideeconomiccrisis,morethanadecadeof
    steadygrowthanddebtreliefhadstrengthenedAfrican
    countriesscalbalances.By2008,72%ofAfricancoun-
    trieshadpositiveprimaryscalbalancescomparedwith
    28%intheearly1990s.Figure29.3showsthedynam-
    icsofeconomicgrowthintheregion,and,asdepicted
    inFigure29.4,amongthe15fastestgrowingeconomies
    oftheworld,12areinAfrica.Allthisshowsthatinspite
    oftheperturbationsintheglobaleconomy,aswellas
    droughtintheeasternpartsofthecontinent,Africas
    growthprospectsfortheforecasthorizonremainrobust.
    Africa appears to be endowed with abundant wa-
    ter resources. It has 17 rivers with a total estimated
    catchment area of over 100,000 km
    2
    , 160 lakes larger
    than 27 km
    2
    . It has vast wetlands and a limited but
    widespread groundwater resource. In addition, it
    has a huge potential for energy production through
    hydropower production [However], there are nat-
    ural and man-made challenges that make it difcult
    to capture the inherent benets and the full poten-
    tial in Africas water resources to support sustain-
    able developments in Africa. (SARPN, 2002, p. 13)
    Asisthecasewithothernaturalresourcesinthere-
    gion,thewaterresourcesofAfricaarevastlyunder-
    developed;however,itisnowgenerallyrecognized
    FIGURE 29.1
    AnnualGDPgrowthrate
    FIGURE 29.2
    PercapitaGDP(constant$US)
    Sources: Prepared by K. Andah from data from World Bank (2008)
    and the EarthTrends database (no longer active) from the World
    Resources Institute.
    Sources: Prepared by K. Andah from data from World Bank (2008)
    and the EarthTrends database (no longer active) from the World
    Resources Institute.
    -15
    -10
    -5
    0
    5
    10
    MiddleEast
    andNorth
    Africa
    Sub-
    Saharan
    Africa
    World
    R
    a
    t
    e

    (
    %
    )
    2006 2005 2000 1990
    0
    1,000
    2,000
    3,000
    4,000
    5,000
    6,000
    MiddleEast
    andNorth
    Africa
    Sub-
    Saharan
    Africa
    World
    G
    P
    D

    (
    U
    S
    $
    )
    2006 2005 2000 1990
    CHAPTER29 REGIONALREPORTS 642
    FIGURE 29.3
    Dynamicsofsub-SaharanAfricaeconomicgrowth
    FIGURE 29.4
    Fastestgrowingeconomiesofsub-SaharanAfrica
    Source: World Bank (2011, g. 2, p.3).
    Source: World Bank (2011, g, 3, p. 3).
    Ghana
    China
    Congo
    Ethiopia
    India
    Mozambique
    Nigeria
    Rwanda
    DemocraticRepublicofCongo
    Zimbabwe
    Angola
    Botswana
    Tanzania
    Brazil
    Russia
    0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
    8.0
    7.0
    6.0
    5.0
    4.0
    3.0
    2.0
    1.0
    0.0
    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
    Sub-SaharanAfrica
    Pre-CrisisAverage
    Sub-SaharanAfricaexcludingSouthAfrica
    Forecast
    PercentgrowthinGDP
    WWDR4 643 AFRICA
    movementoftheITCZaremanifestedinhighseason-
    alityinrainfall,uncertaintimingoftheonsetanddura-
    tionoftherainfallseason,andfrequenthydrometeoro-
    logicalextremesofoodsanddroughts.
    Rainfall anomalies, both positive and negative, are
    very frequent over the continent. Most freshwa-
    ter comes from seasonal rains, which vary with the
    climatic zone. The greatest rainfall occurs along the
    equator, especially the area from the Niger Delta
    to the Congo River Basin. The Sahara Desert has
    virtually no rain Southern Africa receive[s] 12%
    of the regions rainfall (FAO, 1995). In Western and
    Central Africa, rainfall is exceptionally variable and
    unpredictable. (UNECA, 2001, p. 3)
    Severalfactorsinuenceclimatevariabilityinthe
    region.ThemostdominantistheElNio-Southern
    Oscillation(ENSO),whichisresponsibleforinter-annu-
    alclimatevariabilityovereasternandsouthernAfrica.
    The19971998ENSOeventresultedinextremeweath-
    erconditionsovereasternAfrica;andthe19992000
    LaNiaissuspectedtohavecausedthedevastating
    oodsinMozambique.IntheSahel,ENSOappearsto
    inuenceannualvariationandreducesrainfall.Rainfall
    variabilityintheareaisalsoinuencedbyfactors
    likeseasurfacetemperature(SST)andatmospheric
    dynamics.AcrosswesternAfrica,theAtlanticOcean
    playsakeyroleinyear-to-yearchangesinseasonalcli-
    maticvariations.
    Theclimateintheregionalsodisplayshighinterdec-
    adalvariability.Itappearsthataerosolsanddustmay
    alsoplayimportantrolesinmodulatingclimatevaria-
    bilityintheregion,indicatingthepresenceofextreme-
    lydenseanddeepdustlayersintheSahel/Sudan
    area(reachingseveralkilometres)duringthemain
    HarmattanordustseasonfromNovembertoApril.
    29.2.2Transboundarywaterbasins
    Transboundarywaterbasinscovertwo-thirdsofthe
    totallandareaintheregion.Theyarehometothree-
    quartersoftheentireAfricanpopulationandaccount
    forastaggering93%ofthetotalsurfacewaterresource
    baseofthecontinent(Turtonetal.,2006,p.23).
    Someofthemaresharedbyasmanyastencountries.
    The continent has over 80 major river/lake basins,
    some of which are among the largest in the world.
    About 55 of the worlds 200 major international
    rivers are in Africa a number greater than in any
    thatwaterhasavitalroletoplayinthedevelopment
    agendafortheregion.Itisunderstoodthatalthough
    watercanbecomeaninstrumentforsustainablede-
    velopment,itcanalsobecomeaconstraint,capableof
    wipingawaythegainsofdevelopmenteitherprogres-
    sivelyorovernight,ashappenedinMozambiquein
    theoodsof2000(SARPN,2002,p.2).Itsimproper
    managementcanresultindegradationofproductive
    soils,ashasbeenhappeningintheSahelregion;orin
    thelossofvaluableecosystemuse,asisoccurringin
    theLakeChadbasin.Inaddition,unlessappropriate
    approachesarefollowed,economicandsocialdevel-
    opmentcouldnegativelyimpactontheavailabilityand
    qualityofwaterresources,therebylimitingtheirvalue
    forfuturedevelopment.Thereisthereforeaconcerted
    eforttoaddresschallengesthatmayhampertheef-
    fectivedevelopmentandmanagementoftheregions
    waterresources.Theseefortsareenshrinedinthe
    AfricanWaterVision2025,whichwasendorsedby
    theAfricanUnionin2004andservesasthebasisfor
    waterdevelopmentandmanagementbytheAfrican
    MinistersCouncilonWater(AMCOW),theAfrican
    DevelopmentBank(AfDB)andtheUNsystemorgan-
    izedasUNWater/Africa.
    Thischapterreviewssomeofthedriversandchalleng-
    esbeingencounteredinwaterresourcesmanagement
    intheregion.Itreviewstherisksanduncertaintiesthey
    pose,andpresentssomeoftheresponsemeasuresbe-
    ingfollowed.
    29.2Externaldrivers
    29.2.1Climatechange
    Africa is characterized by extreme climatic zones;
    from humid equatorial and tropical zones through
    the semi-arid to the arid North, creating about
    seven distinct hydro-climatic zones. The distribution
    of rainfall over Africa therefore exhibits extreme
    unevenness, both spatially and temporally.
    (UNECA, 2001, p. 1)
    Onacontinentalbasis,Africahasarelativelyplentiful
    supplyofrainwater:atotalof20,359km
    3
    peryearor
    678mmperyear(FAO,2005).Thevariationinpre-
    cipitationisdeterminedbyclimatevariability,which
    isinturndrivenbythemovementoftheInter-Tropical
    ConvergenceZone(ITCZ).Averageprecipitationis
    distributedoverthecontinentfromtheequatorto-
    wardsthenorthernandsouthernfringesinadimin-
    ishingmanner.Risksduetouncertaintiesinherentin
    CHAPTER29 REGIONALREPORTS 644
    other continent. The political boundaries of four-
    teen African countries almost entirely fall within
    the catchment areas of one or more transboundary
    river systems. (UNECA, 2006, p. 201)
    Tenmajorriverbasinsaresharedbymorethanfour
    Africancountries:
    The Nile Basin, for instance, has 10 riparian coun-
    tries [9 within sub-Saharan Africa]; the Congo
    has 9, the Niger has 11, and the Zambezi has 9.
    The Volta has 6 and the Chad has 8. Then there are
    countries through which several international
    rivers pass. One extreme case is Guinea, which
    has 12 such rivers.
    Water interdependency is accentuated by the fact
    that high percentages of total ows in downstream
    countries originate from outside their borders. For
    example, in Mauritania and Botswana, the cor-
    responding gures are 95% and 94%, respectively;
    in the Gambia it is 86% and in the Sudan it is 77%.
    (Mwanza, 2005, p. 99)
    OfgreatimportanceisthetransboundaryNubian
    SandstoneAquiferSystembeneaththenorth-eastern
    Sahara,withatotalextensionofover2.2millionkm2.
    Thisissharedbetweenfourcountries:Chad,Egypt,
    LibyaandSudan.Itistheworldsbiggestrepositoryof
    fossilwaterwithavolumeestimatedfrom150,000km3
    to457,550km3.Themostimportantsub-basinsare
    thewesternKufraBasinandtheeasternDahklaBasin.
    Actualwithdrawalratesbythemainripariancountries
    havebeenestimated(Bakhbakhi,2004)as:
    Egypt:1,029mm3peryear
    Libya:857mm3peryear
    Sudan:407mm3peryear
    Chad:verylowrate
    29.2.3Demographicpressures
    Pressuresemanatingfromtheregionspopulation
    dynamics,especiallyrapidruralmigrationintoperi-
    urbanareas,constituteamajorchallengetothepro-
    visionofwaterandsanitationservices,coupledwith
    fastgrowingurbancentres.Anestimated61%ofthe
    regionspopulationlivesinruralareas,exceedingthe
    worldaverageof50%,andtheaveragepopulation
    densityis29inhabitantsperkm
    2
    ,withveryhighvari-
    ationsatnationalandsubregionallevels.Theregions
    urbanpopulationgrewat3.4%between2005and
    2010,whichis1.1%fasterthantheruralpopulation
    growthrate(UNEP,2010).Theurbanslumpopula-
    tioninAfricancountriesisexpectedtodoubleby
    2020,from200millionin2005,ifgovernmentsdo
    FIGURE 29.5
    PopulationdistributioninAfrica
    FIGURE 29.6
    Comparativepopulationgrowthrate
    Sources: Prepared by K. Andah from data from WHO/UNICEF
    (2010), UNDESA (2007), and the EarthTrends database (no longer
    active) from the World Resources Institute.
    Sources: Prepared by K. Andah from data from UNDESA (2007)
    and the EarthTrends database (no longer active) from the World
    Resources Institute.
    0
    200,000
    400,000
    600,000
    800,000
    1,000,000
    North
    Africa
    Sub-
    Saharan
    Africa
    P
    o
    p
    u
    l
    a
    t
    i
    o
    n

    (
    x
    1
    ,
    0
    0
    0
    )
    Totalpop.(x1,000) Urbanpop.(x1,000) Ruralpop.(x1,000)
    1990 2000 2008
    North
    Africa
    Sub-
    Saharan
    Africa
    North
    Africa
    Sub-
    Saharan
    Africa
    0.0
    0.5
    1.0
    1.5
    2.0
    2.5
    3.0
    MiddleEast
    andNorth
    Africa
    Sub-
    Saharan
    Africa
    World
    R
    a
    t
    e

    (
    %
    )
    20102015 20002005 1990-1995
    WWDR4 645 AFRICA
    nottakeimmediateandradicalaction(UN-Habitat,
    2005).However,urbanslumpopulationsarehighly
    mobileandthenumbersaredifculttoassess.Itis
    clear,though,thatimprovementsarenotkeeping
    pacewiththerapidurbanizationofslumpopulations
    (UN-Habitat,2010).Thisrapidandpoorlymanaged
    growthofurbanareas,especiallyinperi-urbanslums,
    hasoverwhelmedmostmunicipalwaterservicesand
    constitutesamajorchallengetowaterandsanitation
    development.
    In2004,Africaspopulationwasestimatedat868mil-
    lioninhabitants,representingabout14%oftheworlds
    population.Atthetimethattotalpopulationgrowth
    inAfricaappearedtobestabilizing(Figure29.5),the
    globalpopulationgrowthratewasprogressivelyde-
    creasing,fromabout2.8%in19901995toaprojected
    valueofabout2.3%in20102015(Figure29.6).This
    trend,coupledwithanincreasingtrendofeconomic
    growth,islikelytocontributetoincreasedprospects
    forsocioeconomicdevelopment.
    29.3Principalrisks,uncertaintiesand
    opportunities
    29.3.1Principalrisks
    PrincipalrisksinAfricaincludewaterscarcity,extreme
    hydrologicalevents,waterqualitydegradation,and
    lossofwater-relatedecosystems.
    Water scarcity
    Althoughblessedwithanabundantwatersupply,
    Africaistheseconddriestcontinentintheworld,after
    Australia.Itisestimatedthataround200millionpeo-
    pleinsub-SaharanAfricafaceseriouswatershortag-
    es,andthatby2025nearly230millionwillfacewater
    scarcity(UNEP,2008).Oneoftheconsequencesof
    thisistheprevalenceofaridityanddroughtconditions.
    About16%ofthepopulationintheregionlivesinsemi-
    aridareas.InNiger,severedroughtresultedinfamine
    in2005,causingfoodinsecurityfor2.5millionpeople
    (WFP,2005).AccordingtoSharmaetal.(1996)eight
    countriesinsub-SaharanAfricaweresuferingfrom
    waterstressorwaterscarcityin1990,andtheWorld
    Bankestimatesthatby2025,thenumberofcountries
    experiencingwaterstresswillriseto18,afecting600
    millionpeople.
    Therearemanycontributingfactorstotheincreasein
    waterscarcityintheregion.Climatechangeisamajor
    factor.Inthecaseofthelong-termdroughtthatafict-
    edtheSahelfromthe1960stothe1990s,andcaused
    widespreaddisasters,seasurfacetemperaturechanges
    wereimplicated.Otherlikelycontributingfactorswere
    under-investmentinwaterstorageinfrastructure,use
    ofinefcientsystems,rapidpopulationgrowth,ex-
    pandingurbanization,andincreasedeconomicand
    industrialdevelopment.Additionalfactorsinclude
    changesinlifestyles,aswellaspoorandunsustainable
    landmanagementpracticeslikeover-grazing,over-cul-
    tivationanddeforestation.
    Inadditiontodroughtandaridity,risksfromwater
    scarcityincludeconictbetweensectorsandbe-
    tweencountries,landandwaterqualitydegradation,
    eutrophication,siltation,salination,alkalinizationof
    soils,reducedowsinriversandadverseimpactson
    business.
    29.3.2Uncertainty
    Thetwobasicsourcesofuncertaintyinwaterresources
    managementinAfricaarenaturalvariabilityinphysical
    phenomenaandincompleteknowledge.
    Anexampleofnaturalvariabilityisthedistribution
    ofrainfall,whichexhibitsextremeunevenness,both
    spatiallyandtemporallyovertheregion(seeSection
    29.2.1).Asregardsincompleteknowledge,themajor
    causeintheregionistwo-fold,namelyinadequate
    historicalhydrometeorologicaldata,andlackofsci-
    enticunderstandingofthenatureofthephysical
    phenomenaandprocesses.Inadequatepastinvest-
    mentinhydrometeorologicaldatacollectionand
    analysishasledtohydrological,hydraulicandstruc-
    turaluncertainties.This,combinedwiththelackof
    scienticunderstandingofthesystemsandprocesses
    takingplace,hasresultedininadequateknowledge
    aboutthepresentandpaststatesoftheresourcebe-
    ingmanaged.Thereisalsoalackofknowledgeabout
    howthewaterresourcesystemswillchangeover
    time.Inefect,itisimpossibletoadequatelymodel
    currentsituationsandpredictfutureconditions,orto
    constructappropriateprobabilitiesnecessarytoun-
    derstandthenatureofthehazardsfacingvulnerable
    groupssothatappropriatestrategiesforaddress-
    ingtheriskstheyfacecanbedeveloped.Asaresult
    ofthecomplexityofthephysicalphenomena,both
    typesofuncertaintiesareexpectedtoremaininthe
    foreseeablefuture.Thishighlightsaneedforwater
    resourcesmanagement,includingintegratedwater
    resourcesmanagement(IWRM)practices,toadaptto
    reecttheseuncertainties.
    CHAPTER29 REGIONALREPORTS 646
    29.3.3Opportunities
    Some of these transboundary water basins in the
    region hold tremendous potential for mutually ben-
    ecial uses, including cross-boundary hydropower
    generation, large-scale multi-country irrigation
    schemes, inter- and intra-country navigation, joint
    inland sheries development, joint water supply
    projects, environmental protection, wildlife conser-
    vation, recreation and eco-tourism development.
    The Congo River Basin alone holds almost 30% of
    Africas total fresh surface water reserves and the
    worlds largest hydropower potential in any one sin-
    gle river basin [an estimated 100,000 MW of power
    production capacity]
    The main thrust of the management of transbound-
    ary river basins is to nd ways of turning potential
    conicts into constructive cooperation, and to turn
    what is often perceived as a zero-sum predicament
    in which one partys gain is anothers loss into a
    win-win situation. (UNECA, 2006, pp. 2014)
    Thechallengeistoadoptaparadigmshiftfromwater
    sharingtobenetssharing.
    Integrated development of these transboundary
    natural resources will not only contribute signicantly
    to the socio-economic development of the Riparian
    countries sharing these rivers and lakes, they will also
    promote and enhance sub regional and regional coop-
    eration for economic integration in Africa. However, in-
    tegrated development of these resources on the basis
    of win-win principles needs enhanced and concerted
    cooperation among the Riparian countries sharing
    these resources. (UNECA, 2006, pp. 202)
    The SADC example
    Asavividexample,undertheauspicesoftheSouthern
    AfricanDevelopmentCommunity(SADC),fallingwith-
    intheframeworkoftheRevisedProtocolonShared
    WaterCoursesinSADC,SouthAfricahasenteredinto
    variouscooperationagreementsonmultilateralpro-
    jectswithrelevantripariancountriesonsubregionalin-
    tegration,includingthefollowing(Turtonetal.,2006):
    TheLesothoHighlandsWaterProject,comprising
    dams,tunnelsandpipelinesfortransferringwater
    fromriversinLesotho,throughthedivideontothe
    VaalrivercatchmentinSouthAfrica
    TheKomatiRiverDevelopmentProject,consisting
    currentlyoftheMagugaandDriekoppiesDamsfor
    storingwatermainlyforirrigationdevelopmentin
    SwazilandandSouthAfrica
    TheNoord-OewerIrrigationProject,whichuses
    SouthAfricaninfrastructureforadevelopmentin
    Namibia
    TheBarbertonWaterSupplyProject,whichdraws
    waterfromtheLomatiRiverinSwazilandforusein
    SouthAfrica
    ThePhongoloPoortDamwhereSwazilandhas
    grantedSouthAfricaastorageservitude
    TheGaberoneWaterSupplyProject,whichtransfers
    waterfromSouthAfricatothecapitalofBotswana
    Themostpressingchallengeisthelackofcomplete,
    reliableandconsistentdataaboutthetransbound-
    arywaterresources,especiallygroundwater;followed
    byweakinstitutionalframeworks.Thus,thereisthe
    potentialforconictsoverthesewaters.Nevertheless,
    therearealsoover90internationalwateragreements
    tohelpmanagesharedwaterbasinsontheAfrican
    continent(UNEP,2010).
    Inter-basin water transfer schemes
    TheLesothoHighlandsWaterProject(LHWP),listed
    above,isanexampleofaninter-basinwater-trans-
    ferscheme.TheCongoCross-BorderWaterPipeline
    Project(CWPP)isanothersuchexample.Asenvis-
    aged,thelatterprojectwillinvolvedivertingwater
    fromoneoftheriverssoutherntributariesbypump-
    ingitovertheAngolanhighlandstoboosttheowof
    atributaryoftheKavangoRiver.TheCWPPisexpected
    tobethebiggestwaterprojectinsub-SaharanAfrica.
    ItisestimatedtocostUS$6billionandwillgener-
    atethousandsofjobsforlocaleconomiesinAngola,
    Botswana,CentralAfricanRepublic,theDemocratic
    RepublicoftheCongo(DRC),NamibiaandtheSudan.
    Itwillalsogeneratehugebusinessopportunitiessuch
    aselectricityandcommunicationssuppliesresulting
    fromthebreopticsthatwillbepositionedalongthe
    pipelines.
    Namibia sees the water from Congo as an ideal op-
    portunity to have irrigation schemes in the Namib
    Desert, modelled on similar projects undertaken
    by Sahara desert countries. To do that, however,
    Namibia will pump the water from the Kavango
    River (250 km) to deliver it to the capital, Windhoek.
    Botswana, on the other hand, intends to pump the
    water from the Kavango Delta (300 km) to the
    nearest agricultural area, or a further 700 km to its
    capital, Gaborone. (Ngurare, 2001; Tennyson, n.d.)
    WWDR4 647 AFRICA
    29.4Geographicalhotspots
    29.4.1TheSahel
    OneofthehotspotsinAfricaistheSahel.Theterm
    refersbothtoaneco-climaticzoneandtoageopoliti-
    calentity.Theeco-climaticzonereferstothesemi-arid
    transitionregionbetweentheSaharadesertandthe
    wetterregionsofequatorialAfrica.Itextendsfromthe
    AtlantictotheIndianOcean,anditischaracterizedby
    dryness,intenseheatandsporadicirregularrainfall,
    aswellasperiodicoodingandprolongeddroughts
    thatareoftenaccompaniedbywidespreadfamineand
    large-scaledeathsaswellasthedisplacementofpeople
    andlivestock.
    Rainfallrecords,archaeologicalandotherformsof
    evidencesuggestthatdroughtandoods,aswellas
    consequentfaminesandotherformsofwidespread
    devastationthatarecharacteristicoftheSahelinour
    time,arenotarecentphenomenon.Onthecontrary,
    theyhavebeenarecurringfeatureintheregionfrom
    timeimmemorial;whatismore,theyseemtoberecur-
    ringwithincreasingintensityandfrequency.
    AmajordroughtoccurredintheSahelfromJuneto
    August2010.Therewasalsoamajordroughtduring
    theearly1970s,whichcaughttheworldunprepared
    andresultedindisastersofmajorproportionsandre-
    sultedincostlyinternationalinterventions.Thenature
    ofthisexperienceraisedquestionsabouthowbest
    tocoordinatethemultitudeofassistanceefortsby
    donorsandrecipients.Italsoraisedquestionsabout
    theoptimalbalancebetweenrelief,recoveryand
    development.
    Considerationofthesequestionsledtotheestablish-
    mentofaneworganizationin1973byheadsofstate
    andgovernmentsofcountriesinWestAfricathat
    havepartsoftheirterritoriesfallingwithintheSahel
    region.ThisorganizationisknownasthePermanent
    Inter-StateCommitteeforDroughtControlinthe
    Sahel(CILSS).Thepartofthebroadereco-climatic
    Sahelzonethatfallswithintheterritorialboundaries
    ofmemberstatesoftheCILSSiswhatconstitutesthe
    geopoliticalSahelregionofWestAfrica.
    TherearenineMemberStatesintheCILSSofwhich
    fourarecoastalcountries(TheGambia,GuineaBissau,
    MauritaniaandSenegal),fourarelandlockedcountries
    (BurkinaFaso,Chad,MaliandNiger),andoneisanis-
    landstate(CapeVerde).
    Thereareapproximately58millionpeopleintheCILSS
    countries,whichcoveranareaof5.7millionkm
    2
    .Inad-
    ditiontohavingsimilarclimaticconditionstheSahel
    climatethepeopleofthesecountries:
    have a lot in common in terms of cultures and live-
    lihood systems. These livelihood systems include
    agriculture, livestock herding, shing, short and
    long-distance trading, and a variety of urban occu-
    pations. Dryland crops such as millet, sorghum and
    cowpeas constitute the staple foods of the popu-
    lations while groundnut and cotton are the major
    cash crops. Farming in this region is almost entirely
    reliant on three to four months of summer rainfall,
    except along the banks of the major rivers, lakes,
    and other seasonal water courses, where some ir-
    rigation activities are undertaken. Livestock herding
    is a very important aspect of life in the region, and
    constitutes the major source of income in some
    areas. (UNEP, 2006, p. 2)
    ThemandateofCILSSistoinvestinresearchinfood
    securityandintheghtagainsttheefectsofdrought
    anddesertication.Recognizingthecrucialrolewater
    playsinitsmandate,themembersofCILLShavede-
    cidedtoformacomplementaryglobalcoalitiononwa-
    tertoaddressspecicproblemsatalocallevel.
    29.4.2LakeChad
    LakeChadisthefourthlargestlakeinAfrica,after
    lakesVictoria,TangayikaandNyasa.Itisaveryshallow
    freshwaterlake,averagingabout1.5mdeepevenin
    normalyears.ItsfourripariancountriesareCameroon,
    Chad,NigerandNigeria,whocollectivelycomprisethe
    originalmembersoftheLakeChadBasinCommission
    (LCBC).TheCentralAfricanRepublic(CAR)became
    amemberin1994,Libyajoinedin2008,andSudan
    andtheRepublicofCongowereacceptedasobserver
    countries.Thebasinextendsoveranareaof2,397,423
    km
    2
    distributedovereightcountriesasfollows:Chad
    (46.3%ofthebasin),Niger(28%),CAR(9.1%),Nigeria
    (7.5%),Algeria(3.7%),Sudan(3.4%),Cameroon(1.9%)
    andLibya(0.1%).
    Thelake,rstsurveyedin1823,isbelievedtobearem-
    nantofaformerinlandseathathasgrownandshrunk
    withchangesinclimateoverthepast13,000years.In
    1964,whentheLCBCwasestablished,thelakecovered
    anareaof25,000km
    2
    .Today,itcoversanareaofless
    than1000km
    2
    duringtheannuallowestwaterlevelsin
    theregion.
    CHAPTER29 REGIONALREPORTS 648
    Theshrinkagehasbeenattributedtomanycauses
    suchasovergrazingintheareasurroundingthelake,
    whichtriggersaprocessofdeserticationandthede-
    clineofvegetation.Somehaveplacedtheblameon
    humanwaterusesuchasirrigation;othershighlight
    climatechangeasakeyfactor.
    Theshrinkageisalsoreportedtohavegivenrisetodis-
    putesbetweencountriesoverrightstotheremaining
    water.Violenceisalsoemergingbetweenfarmersand
    herdersovertheuseofwater.
    [The lake is] fringed by a zone of swampy vegeta-
    tion dominated by reeds (Phragmites spp.), papy-
    rus (Cyperus papyrus) and cattail (Typha australis)
    There are many small islands formed by the invasion
    of moving sand dunes near the northeastern coast;
    some of them are inhabited or utilized as bases for
    shing. Besides the products of agriculture, live-
    stock grazing and shery, the drainage basin of L.
    Chad is known for its yield of natural soda, an activ-
    ity that contributes to keeping the lake water fresh.
    (ILEC, n.d.)
    Thelakeishometomanyoraandfaunaincluding
    over44speciesofalgae,andhaslargeareasof
    swampandreedbedscoveredwithYaeregrassland
    ofEchinoclora pyramidalis,Vetiveria nigritana,Oryza
    longistminataandHyparrhenia rufavarieties.Its
    oatingislandshostawidevarietyofwildlifeand
    largecommunitiesofmigratoryandnearendemic
    birds.Itisfearedthattheshrinkingofthelakeis
    threateningnestingsitesoftheBlackCrownedCrane
    (Bolearica pavonia pavonina).Thelakeisalsoagood
    sourceofsh.
    Environmental problems
    Atransboundarydiagnosticanalysisconductedin1989
    and2007byLCBCidentiedthefollowingsevenre-
    gionalenvironmentalproblems(LCBC,2008):
    Variabilityofthehydrologicalregimeandavailability
    offreshwater
    Waterpollution
    Lowvariabilityofbiologicalresources
    Lossofbiodiversity
    Destructionandmodicationofecosystems
    Sedimentationofriversandwatercourses
    Invadingspecies
    Theywerealldeterminedtobeproductsofthecom-
    binedefectsofglobalclimatechangeandtheuseof
    unsustainablepracticesandresourcesbytheever-
    growingbasinpopulations.
    Saving the lake and its basin
    TheLCBChaslaunchedaprogrammetosavethelake.
    AkeyfeatureofthisefortistheInter-Basin-Water
    TransferProject(IBWT).Thisentailsthetransferofwa-
    terfromtheCongo/OubanguiRiversintoLakeChad.
    MemberStatesoftheLCBChavealreadycontributed
    theUS$6.07neededfortheprojectsfeasibilitystudy.
    Acomplementaryefortincludesthefollowing:
    The2008adoptionbytheLCBCCouncilofMinisters
    ofaStrategicActionPlandevelopedwithinthe
    frameworkofaGEFproject.TheaimofthisAction
    Planistoreversethegeneralecosystemdegradation
    trendsinthearea.
    Thedevelopmentofnationalactionplanstomeet
    theprioritiesofthenationalportionsofthelake.
    Theproposedinter-basinwatertransferprojectisen-
    visagedasthesolutiontotheproblemsofunderdevel-
    opment,foodinsecurityandpovertyintheWestand
    CentralAfricansubregion.
    29.4.3TheHornofAfrica:Macroeconomicefectsof
    drought
    Inadditiontotheturmoilintheglobaleconomy,parts
    ofAfricaarefacingspecicchallenges,themostse-
    vereofwhichisthedroughtintheHornofAfricathe
    worstinover50years.Themostafectedeconomy
    isSomalia,butpartsofEthiopia,Eritrea,Kenyaand
    Tanzaniaarealsosuferingfrompoorrainsanddry
    weatherconditions.Anestimated13.3millionpeople
    areinneedofhumanitarianassistanceacrosstheHorn.
    Withagricultureaccountingforabout20%to40%of
    GDPinmostAfricancountries,andwithabout93%
    dependentongoodrains,theimpactofpoorrainson
    GDPgrowthinsub-SaharanAfricaneconomiescanbe
    signicant.
    Initialestimatessuggestthatintheaveragesub-
    SaharanAfricaneconomy,everypercentagedeclinein
    growthintheagriculturalsectorcutsGDPgrowthby
    0.26percentagepoints.However,thedeclineinGDP
    willdiferbycountry,dependingonthesizeofthe
    agriculturalsectorinthecountryseconomyandthe
    strengthoftheagriculturalsectorslinkageswiththe
    restoftheeconomy.Firstquarter2011GDPguresfor
    Kenyaalreadyshowthatgrowthintheagriculturesec-
    torsloweddownto2.2%comparedto5.7%overthe
    samequarterin2010.Cofeedeliveryfellbysome28%
    WWDR4 649 AFRICA
    intherstquarterof2011inKenyaand,forthersthalf
    of2011,teaproductionfellby16%(year-on-year)onac-
    countoftheunseasonalhotanddryweatherconditions
    andpoorlydistributedrainfallintea-growingareas.
    Asimulated10%reductionincropandlivestockproduc-
    tioninthepastoralistareasinEthiopiatheareasmost
    afectedbythecurrentdroughtshowsagricultural
    growthdecliningby0.6percentagepointsandindustry
    andservicessectorsbyabout0.2percentagepoints(for
    20102011).TheoverallefectwouldbetodampenGDP
    growthby0.4percentagepoints.Householdsdirectlyim-
    pactedbydrought-relatedproductionshocksarelikelyto
    beseverelyafectedastheyloseincomeandlivelihoods.
    Totheextentthattheseshocksarereectedinprices
    atthelocalandnationallevel,netconsumersoffoodin
    bothruralandurbanareaslose.Persistenceofdrought
    orworseningoftheseverityofthedroughtwouldhave
    moreadverseefects.Forexample,ashocksimulating
    threeyearsofdrought(i.e.through20122013)would
    shave0.3percentagepointsofGDPgrowthin2012and
    2013.Poorrainswouldreducehydroelectricpowergen-
    erationinanenvironmentwherelackofadequatepower
    supplyisalreadyabindingconstraintoneconomicactiv-
    ity.Tanzaniahascarriedoutextensivepowerrationingin
    2011.Some90%oflargermsinthecountryhavetheir
    owngeneratorswhich,beingmuchmoreexpensive,sig-
    nicantlyreducetheprotmarginsofrms.InTanzania,
    growthforecastshavealreadybeenloweredbysome
    0.3%onaccountofthelowerrains,poweroutagesand
    higherinationrates.
    TherehasalsobeensomepowerrationinginKenya.
    TheKenyaManufacturersAssociationestimatesthat
    generatorpowercostsalonecouldaccountforsome
    40%ofoverallcosts.Theestimatedimpactofthe
    droughtandhighfoodandfuelprices,combinedwith
    belownormalrainfall,isa1percentagepointreduc-
    tioninGDPgrowthinKenya.TheGDPimpactofthe
    droughtdoesnotadequatelycapturetheefectson
    households.Ingeneral,droughtsafectpoorerhouse-
    holdsdisproportionately.Forinstance,inKenyawhere
    some3.8millionpeopleareestimatedtohavebeenaf-
    fected,thepovertyheadcountinthedrought-afected
    areasaverages70%comparedwithanationalpoverty
    rateof47%.Similarly,inEthiopiathemajorityofthe
    4.8millionpeopleafectedbythedroughtlivebelow
    thepovertyline.Inbothcountries,cerealpriceshave
    risensharply,signicantlyreducingthepurchasing
    powerofpoorhouseholds,whospend6070%oftheir
    incomesonfood(WorldBank,2011).
    29.5Responsemeasures
    UsingtheAfricaWaterVision2025astheregional
    policyframework,anumberofinitiativeshavebeen
    undertakensince2000torespondtotheseregional
    challenges.Theyincludeinitiativesatregionallevel
    (bysuchorganizationsastheAfricanUnion,theUN
    EconomicCommissionforAfrica,AfDB,UNWater/
    Africa,AMCOW,theAfricaWaterTaskForce,theNew
    PartnershipforAfricasDevelopment[NEPAD]and
    theAfricaWaterFacility);initiativesatbasinlevel(by
    variouswaterbasinauthorities)andactionsatcountry
    level.Otherresponsesincludecollaborationsbetween
    regionalandinternationalwaterresourcesagencies
    liketheGlobalWaterPartnership(GWP)/AMCOW
    programmetosupportclimatechangeadaptationin
    Africaregion.Inaddition,anumberofspecialandreg-
    ularmeetingsonwaterhavebeenintroduced.These
    includetheannualAfricaWaterWeekseries,AfricaSan
    meetings,andtheSharmel-SheikhandSirteSummits
    oftheAfricanUnion,dedicatedtodiscussionofwater
    andagriculture,respectively.
    29.5.1ConcertedAfricanresponsetoregionaland
    internationalcommitments
    Politicalandinstitutionalperspectivesincreasingly
    acknowledgethatregionalandsubregionalconcerted
    efortscangoalongwaytoensurethatAfricancoun-
    triescanfacethechallengingtaskofmobilizingtheir
    waterresourcesforsustainabledevelopmentinthe
    faceofclimatevariabilityandchangeandotheruncer-
    tainties.Itisthereforeimportanttopoolallhumanand
    institutionalresourcesatlocal,national,subregional
    andcontinentalscalestotacklethecommonchalleng-
    esbyimproving:
    Understandingandquantitativeknowledgeofthe
    varioussourcesofuncertainty
    Thewayinwhichthisiscommunicatedtowaterre-
    sourcemanagersandotherstakeholders
    Thewayinwhichuncertaintyisincorporatedinto
    waterresourcemanagementdecision-making
    (Hughes,2008)
    Thechallengesincludetheneedforearlywarningsys-
    temsforthepredictionof:
    Onsetanddurationofrainfallseasons
    Intraseasonaldryspells
    Rainfallanomaliesbasedoninter-hemispherical
    teleconnections
    LeadtimeofimpactsofElNioandLaNia
    CHAPTER29 REGIONALREPORTS 650
    throughabenet-sharingparadigm.Feasiblear-
    rangementscanalsobemadeforinter-basinwater
    transferschemesthatinvolvesavingdyingwatereco-
    systemssuchasLakeChad,andinitiatingtransfers
    fromwater-richbasinstodrierzonesliketheSahel.
    Manysuchprojectsarebeingstudiedacrossthecon-
    tinent(UNWater/Africa,2007).
    29.5.2ImplementationoftargetsundertheAfrican
    WaterVisionandtheMDGs
    During19992000,theOrganisationofAfricanUnity
    (OAU)(nowtheAfricanUnion),togetherwiththe
    UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforAfrica
    (UNECA),GWPbranchesinAfricaandtheAfDBmo-
    bilizedhumanandmaterialresourcesforthedrafting
    andadoptionoftheAfricanWaterVision2025along
    withitsFrameworkforAction,andtowardsAfricas
    fullparticipationinthe2ndWorldWaterForumin
    TheHaguein2000.Financedbythesecretariatof
    the2ndWorldWaterForum,thenaldocumentwas
    publishedbyUNECA.Implementationoftheprovi-
    sionsoftheVisioninclude:theAccraconferenceon
    SustainableDevelopmentin2002,therstPanAfrican
    WaterConferencein2003(Box29.1),thedevelopment
    oftheAfricaWaterFacilityin2004,andthepublica-
    tionin2006ofthersteditionoftheAfrican Water
    Development Report(Box29.2).
    The Accra Conference on Sustainable Development
    Therst,mostsignicantactivitytoowfromthe
    AfricaWaterVisionwastheAccraConferenceon
    WaterandSustainableDevelopment,heldinApril
    2002.TheconferencewasorganizedbytheAfrica
    WaterTaskForce(AWTF)withnancialsupportfrom
    theGovernmentoftheNetherlands.Itssuccesswas
    followedbytheorganizationoftheWaterDome
    eventbytheAWTFduringtheWorldConferenceon
    SustainableDevelopment,heldinJohannesburglater
    in2002.TheWaterDomeenabledallwater-related
    activitiestobeconductedatasinglevenueduringthe
    conference.
    African Water Facility
    TheAfricanWaterFacility(AWF)isaninitiativede-
    velopedbyAWTF,anddevelopedundertheleader-
    shipofAMCOWandAfDB.ItishostedbyAfDB,at
    therequestofAMCOW,andisdesignedtomobilize
    resourcestonancewaterresourcesdevelopment
    activitiesinAfricawithintheframeworkofbuilding
    Africancapacityforefectivewaterresourcespro-
    jectdevelopment,preparationandimplementation.
    AfricanUnioninitiatives,AMCOW,theAfricanWater
    FacilityandtheincreasingroleoftheAfDBinwater
    resourcesdevelopmentandmanagement,withspecial
    referencetotheruralwaterandsanitationsector,all
    testifytoongoinghighcommitmentstowaterresourc-
    esdevelopmentandmanagement.Themeetingsof
    the2ndExtraordinarySessionofHeadsofStateand
    GovernmentsoftheAfricanUnion,inSirte,Libyain
    2004dedicatedtoagriculture,andtheAfricanUnion
    SummitofHeadsofStateonWaterandSanitation
    heldatSharmel-Sheikh,Egyptin2008,inparticular,
    reectpoliticalsupportatthehighestlevel.Thean-
    nualAfricaWaterWeekseries,heldundertheauspices
    ofAMCOWandlaunchedin2007,haveaddedfurther
    impetustotheplatformforinformationsharingand
    awarenessonwaterresourcesdevelopmentandman-
    agement.Thereisnowanurgentneedforwiderinter-
    nationalcooperationtoaugmentregionalandsubre-
    gionaleforts.Thiscanbethroughcollaborativeeforts
    suchastheEU-AfricaStrategicInitiativeandothersto
    bedevelopedwithotherdevelopmentpartners,such
    asthegrowingrelationshipswithdevelopingAsian
    partners,inparticularJapan.
    Thesecontinentalandsubregionalinstitutionalframe-
    worksarenecessaryforstrengtheningspecialized
    institutionalcapacitiesinordertoprovideusefuland
    reliabledata-information-knowledgeandservicesin
    supportofmoreefectivedevelopmentpolicies,eco-
    nomicplans,socio-economicactivitiesandinvestments
    acrosstheAfricancontinent(UNECA,2010,p.2),which
    takeintoaccounttheuncertaintiesinclimatechange.
    Forexample:
    African climate institutions like the African Centre
    for Meteorological Applications for Development
    (ACMAD), the IGAD Climate Prediction and
    Applications Centre (ICPAC), the SADC Drought
    Monitoring Centre (SADC-DMC) have worked on the
    CRM [Climate Risk Management] approach in con-
    junction with the International Research Institute for
    Climate and Society (IRI) and are building capacities
    for its smooth integration within sectoral decision-
    making processes, such as agricultural production,
    food security, water resource management, health
    protection and disaster risk management. (UNECA,
    2010, p. 3)
    Theycanalsofacilitatetheharmonizationoflegal
    frameworksattheregionallevelforprotectingshared
    waterresourcesandformakingtheirusesustainable
    WWDR4 651 AFRICA
    BOX 29.1
    ThePanAfricanWaterConference
    BOX 29.2
    TheAfricanWaterDevelopmentReport(AWDR)
    Withinthiscontextithasbeenestimatedthaton
    aggregate,US$20billionperyearwillberequiredto
    achievethetargetsoftheAfricanWaterVision2025
    (NEPAD,2006).Outofthisamount,itisestimated
    thataboutUS$10billionisrequiredtomeeturgent
    waterneeds.TheAWFthereforefocusesitsopera-
    tionalsupportontheattainmentofthefollowing
    mainstrategicobjectives:
    Strengthenwatergovernance
    Mobilizeandapplyresourcestomeeturgentwater
    andsanitationneeds
    Strengthenthenancialbase
    Improvewaterknowledge
    Sinceitbecameoperationalin2006,theAWFhasap-
    proved66projectsatatotalinvestmentof79million.
    The African Water Information Clearing House (AWICH)
    UNECAhasbeenentrustedbyUNWater/Africawith
    settingupaninformationclearinghouseforwater-
    relatedissuesinAfrica.Atechnicalgroupwascreated
    todiscussindetailthemodalitiesandtechnicalities
    oftheclearinghouse.TheAfricanWaterInformation
    ClearingHousewasnallyestablishedin2005aspart
    oftheUNECAwebsite,andcoversthefollowingwater
    andenvironmentalcomponents:
    Rainfallandclimaticdata
    Environment
    Rivers
    Lakes
    Groundwater
    Seas/oceans
    Waterquality
    TherstPanAfricanImplementationandPartnership
    ConferenceonWaterwasconvenedbyAMCOW,UN-
    Water/AfricaandtheAfDBandwasheldattheUnited
    NationsConferenceCentreinAddisAbabafrom813
    December2003.ThesecondwasheldinNovember2009
    atAddisAbaba.
    The[rst]Conferenceattractedmorethan1400del-
    egatesand45ministersinchargeofwater,environment
    andhousing.Theparticipantsincludednationaldelegates,
    keystakeholders,intergovernmentalorganizations,co-
    operationdevelopmentpartnersandnon-governmental
    organizations(NGOs)(UNECA,2006,p.293).The
    ConferenceconrmedthedeterminationofAfricancoun-
    triesinconfrontingissuesofintegratedwaterresources
    management(IWRM)andinmeetingthetargetsofthe
    MillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs),bothatnational
    andsubregionallevels,andalsothroughpartnershipsat
    theinternationallevel,byplacingwaterandsanitationat
    thecentreoftheirstrategiesforsocio-economicdevelop-
    ment.TheConferenceprovidedaplatformforAfrican
    countries,theinternationalcommunityandUNagencies
    toreafrmtheircommitmenttosolvingAfricaswatercri-
    sisandtocollectivelyimplementtheactionsenvisagedin
    theAfricanWaterVision2025,theWaterAgendaofthe
    NewPartnershipforAfricasDevelopment(NEPAD),the
    WorldSummitonSustainableDevelopment(WSSD)tar-
    getsandtheMDGsonwater.Thethematicsessionswere
    dedicatedtothechallengeareas,including:water,sani-
    tationandhumansettlements;waterandfoodsecurity;
    protectingecosystemsandlivelihoods;waterandclimate;
    nancingwaterinfrastructure;integratedwaterresources
    management(IWRM);waterallocation;waterwisdom;
    andwatergovernance.Eachsessioncameoutwithrec-
    ommendations,whichwerediscussedatajointministe-
    rialandstakeholdersplenarysessions.Oneofthemain
    outcomesoftheConferencewasthepresentationand
    adoptionofsubregionalprojectportfoliostotheministe-
    rialsegment.Theseprojectshavebeenpreparedthrough
    nationalandsubregionalconsultationsandmeetings,ad-
    dressingtheimplicationoftheoutcomesoftheWSSD
    onregionalwaterinitiativesandsettingupaconcrete
    agendainimplementingthetargetsoftheAfricanWater
    VisionandtheMDGs,withspecialemphasisonwatersup-
    plyandsanitationandthestrategicapplicationofIWRM.
    (UNECA,2006,pp.2934)
    Duetotheparticularproblemsofwaterresources
    developmentandmanagementinAfrica,theInter-
    AgencyGrouponWaterinAfrica(nowreferredtoas
    UNWater/Africa),decidedinApril2001inNiameyto
    developanAfrican Water Development Report (AWDR).
    ItwasconceivedalongtheframeworkoftheWorld
    Water Development Report (WWDR),andisintended
    toserveasaninputtothepreparationoftheWWDRs.
    Thersteditionwaspublishedin2006andlaunchedat
    the4thWorldWaterForuminMexicoundertheaegis
    ofAMCOW.TheaimoftheAWDRistoafordAfrican
    countriesandotherstakeholdersthenecessarytools
    andskillstomonitorthegoalsandtargetsoftheAfrican
    WaterVision.TheWorldWaterAssessmentProgramme
    (WWAP),UNWater/AfricaandAMCOWinitiatedcontact
    in2011torevitalizethisreportasapartofabroader
    monitoringandassessmentefort.
    CHAPTER29 REGIONALREPORTS 652
    UN Water/Africa
    In1992,theUnitedNations(UN)familyorganizations
    operatinginthewaterandenvironmentalsectorsin
    Africadecidedtopoolresourcestogetherunderthe
    nameInterAgencyGrouponWater(IGWA),withthe
    objectiveofplacingAfricaattheforefrontofinter-
    nationalwaterconcerns.TheSecretariatisprovided
    byUNECAinAddisAbaba,Ethiopia.Otherstrategic
    partnersdoparticipateinmeetingsofUNWater/Africa,
    andtakepartinsomeofitsinitiatives.Theseinclude:
    AMCOW,theNEPADSecretariat,inter-governmental
    bodiessuchassubregionaleconomicgroupings
    (ECOWAS,IGAD,SADC,etc.),andreputableresearch
    institutions,centresandnetworks.
    TheprincipalobjectiveofUNWater/Africaistocon-
    tributetotheUNsystem-wideresponsetothechal-
    lengesandopportunitiesconnectedwithpursuing
    theMDGs,andparticipationintheWorldSummiton
    SustainableDevelopment(WSSD)andothermajor
    inter-governmentalconferencesandsummitsthrough
    technicalsupporttotheAfricanUnion.Specically,
    UNWater/Africaseekstofacilitate:
    (i) The adoption of efective national and regional
    policies and institutional frameworks based on the
    principle of integrated water resources manage-
    ment (IWRM); (ii) the establishment of collaborative
    framework on agreements to facilitate the manage-
    ment and development of shared water resources;
    (iii) capacity building; and the urgent need for im-
    proved water wisdom. (NEPAD, 2006, p. 4)
    Conclusion
    Africahasmadesignicantprogressinmobilizingits
    vastwaterresourcespotential.Thenatureofthese
    resourcesisinuencedbynaturalandhumanexternal
    driversthatarecomplexandcharacterizedbyinherent
    uncertainties.Theuncertaintiesarisefrombothnatural
    variabilityandlackofknowledge.Goodprogresshas
    beenmadeinresolvingthecurrentuncertainties.New
    onesarelikelytoemergesocopingstrategiesshould
    BOX 29.3
    Financingwater:TheroleofAfDB
    TheAfricanDevelopmentBankhasplacedhighpriorityonthewatersectorasawayofassistingRegionalMemberCountries
    (RMCs)toachievetheobjectivesofpovertyreductionandeconomicgrowthbecauseoftheuniquepotentialofthissector
    tocontributetoachievingtheotherMDGsonpoverty,health,educationandgender.TheBanksportfolioofinterventionsin
    thewaterandsanitationsectorspansdrinkingwatersupply,waterresourcesmanagement,sanitationandhygiene,capac-
    itybuildingandpolicyreformamongothers.TheBankiscurrentlynancingmorethan50activeprojectsin29countries
    amountingtoaboutUS$2billion.
    TheBankaimsatsignicantlyincreasingitsinterventionsinruralwatersupplyandsanitationwhilecontinuingtosupportur-
    banandperi-urbanwatersupplyandsanitation,andpromotingintegratedmanagementofwaterresources.Insummary,the
    strategyseeksto:
    lncreasewatersupplyandsanitationfnancing
    Focusprimarilyonpoorestofpopulationlivinginruralareas
    Providesomesupportforperiurbanareassmallandmediumtownsandspecifcallyforurbansanitation
    Promotetransboundarywaterresourcesmanagement
    Supporttheenablingenvironmenttoattractmoreresources
    Moreover,theAfDBisalsohostinganumberofcomplementaryinitiativeswhichtogetherenhancetheefectivenessofthe
    Banksworkandprovidesvitalresourcesforscalingupandforpromotinginnovationandsupportingknowledgemanage-
    mentactivities.ThefourmaininitiativesunderpinningtheBankstrategyinthewatersectorarethe:
    PuralWaterSupplyandSanitationlnitiativePWSSl
    AfricanWaterFacilityAWF
    NLPADWaterandSanitationProgramme
    HultidonorWaterPartnershipProgrammeHDWPP
    Source: Reproduced from AfDB (2011).
    WWDR4 653 AFRICA
    beexibleandadaptiveindesign,andapproaches
    needtobemodiedtobenetfromadaptivestrate-
    gies.Atpresentmuchactionistakingplacetoaddress
    theproblemsinthewaterresourcesmanagement
    areaandinmeetingtheurgentneedsdenedinthe
    AfricanWaterVision2025.Tobefruitful,copingstrate-
    giesshouldemphasizetheimportanceofaddressing
    knowledgegapsbutmostimportantlythemobiliza-
    tionofsustainablenancingtoachievethetargetof
    theAfricanWaterVision2025.

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    UNECE

    AuthorsFrancescaBernardini,RainerEnderlein,SonjaKoeppelandAnnukkaLipponen
    inconsultationwithEEAandGWP/CACENA
    CHAPTER 30
    Europe and North America
    Shutterstock/AndyZ

    Specic water quality and quantity problems arise from pressures placed on water resources
    by agriculture, manufacturing industries, and sewerage and wastewaters. Climate change
    and economic development aggravate these pressures. Distinct subregional water problems
    (e.g. in Central Asia, Western Europe and North America) need tailor-made solutions.
    Although many issues are yet to be solved, over the last two decades the status of water
    resources has been improved and integrated water resources management plans have been
    developed at local, national and transboundary levels.
    The regions surface waters and groundwaters contain pollutants, such as nutrients, metals,
    pesticides, microbes, industrial chemicals and pharmaceutical products. These have adverse
    efects on freshwater ecosystems. Prevention, control and reduction of water pollution are
    of utmost priority. Pollution sources are extremely diverse and vary considerably over river
    basins. Agriculture and urban sources (e.g. industries, urban wastewaters) contribute most of
    the freshwater pollution.
    Climate change is projected to increase the risks of oods and droughts in many areas of
    the region. Costly water infrastructures designed to serve for decades in stationary climatic
    conditions are vulnerable to climate change. Concern over water scarcity is also increasing.
    Citizens and economic sectors are directly afected by abstraction pressures to satisfy urban
    needs and needs for irrigated agriculture, and especially in arid and semi-arid areas by
    diminishing water availability due to climate change.
    Re-naturalization of watercourses is a challenge. Past structural measures (e.g. building
    dams and reservoirs for hydropower generation and irrigational water supply, constructing
    dykes, straightening waterways and enforcing river banks) have caused signicant hydro-
    morphological changes in river basins in Europe and North America.
    Insufcient wastewater treatment and its adverse efects on sources of drinking water and
    recreational waters are further priorities for action. The health impact of oods and heat
    waves add to the burden of water-related diseases.
    Due the large numbers of transboundary rivers, lakes and groundwaters in the region, there
    is an understanding that transboundary cooperation for their management is necessary. This
    has led to strengthened bilateral and multilateral cooperation on shared waters, supported
    by bilateral and multilateral agreements, in many cases underpinned by UNECE Water
    Convention.
    National and international response measures have been agreed upon, including European
    Union (EU) environmental legislation and United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
    (UNECE) conventions and protocols, supplemented by recommendations and guidelines
    for action. EU assistance programmes and bilateral assistance programmes for countries in
    Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia are important for putting in place legal and
    other response measures, and contribute to strengthening water management.
    WWDR4 657 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA
    30.1Introduction
    Morethan1.2billionpeopleliveinthe56countriesofthe
    UNECEregion(Table30.1).
    1
    WesternandCentralEurope
    isoneofthemostdenselypopulatedareasoftheworld,
    withanaverageofnearly110peopleperkm
    2
    .Thisis
    incontrasttotherelativelysmallpopulationsinother
    partsoftheworld,wheretheaveragedensityisbelow
    20peopleperkm
    2
    .Between1960and2000,Central
    Asia(morethan120%populationincrease)andthe
    Caucasus(60%increase)haveexperiencedconsidera-
    blyhighergrowthratesthanothercountries.Formost
    countriesinWesternandCentralEuropeandinNorth
    America,thereisatrendtowardsstableorevendeclin-
    ingpopulations.
    Migrationofpeoplehasbeenincreasingsincethe
    1990s,includingmigrationalonggradientsofpolitical
    stabilityoreconomicprospects,in-countrymigration
    fromruraltourbanareasandseasonalmigrationof
    workersandretirees.Theseareamongthereasonsfor
    increasedabstractionpressuretosatisfywaterneedsin
    majorWesterncities.Migrationalonggradientsofeco-
    nomicprospectsalsogivesrisetoamostlyunconsid-
    eredefectondataaboutdomesticwaterconsumption
    andsanitationgures:thewaterstatisticsinsomecoun-
    triesisbasedonthenumberofpeopleofciallyregis-
    teredtoapartmentsandnotthenumberofpeopleac-
    tuallylivingthereasinArmenia,Georgia,Kyrgyzstan
    andtheRepublicofMoldova,manyresidentsofwhich
    workformostoftheirtimeabroad.
    Economicdevelopmentisalsohighlydiverseinthe
    region.Someofthecountriesareamongtherich-
    estintheworld,whileothers,particularlythosewhose
    TABLE 30.1
    Groupingofthe56UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope(UNECE)MemberStates
    Group Subgroup Countries
    EU countries Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy,
    Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, Bulgaria,
    Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland,
    Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
    Western Europe

    Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland,
    Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway,
    Portugal, San Marino, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom
    EU-15 countries Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy,
    Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
    Central and
    Eastern
    Europe
    Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria,
    Czech Republic, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia,
    Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia,
    Slovakia,
    Slovenia, The former Yugoslav Republic of
    Macedonia, Turkey
    Countries that became
    EU Member States in
    the course of the EU
    enlargement process
    Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia,
    Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland,
    Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
    Eastern Europe,
    Caucasus and
    Central
    Asia
    Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia,
    Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan,
    Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan
    Caucasus Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia
    Central Asia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
    Pan-European
    region
    UNECE countries, except Canada, Israel and the United States
    North America Canada, United States
    CHAPTER30 REGIONALREPORTS 658
    economieshavebeenintransitionsincethe1990s,are
    stillcatchingup.Percapitalevelsofgrossdomestic
    product(GDP)varywidely,fromwelloverUS$20,000
    reportedinEU-15,theUnitedStates,Canada,Norway,
    Switzerlandandothercountries,tolessthanone-eighth
    ofthisgureintheCaucasusandCentralAsia.By2009,
    twodecadesafterthetransitionperiodbegan,some
    countriesinEasternEurope,theCaucasusandCentral
    Asiahadincreasedtheirpercapitaincomesapproxi-
    mately50%abovetheir1989levels,mosthadonlyre-
    turnedtosomethingsimilartotheir1989level,while
    afeweconomies(Georgia,theRepublicofMoldova,
    Serbia,Tajikistan,andUkraine)remained30%ormore
    belowthisearlierlevel(UNECE,2010).
    Demographicpatternsandmigration,economicde-
    velopmentandasanalysedfurtherbelowclimate
    changearekeyexternaldriversintheUNECEregion
    (EEA,2007;EEA,2010a;EEA,2010b;UNECE,2011b).
    Nationallegislation(e.g.theUSCleanWaterAct),
    EUlegislationandUNECEenvironmentalconventions
    andprotocolsaredesignedtocounteractthemany
    adverseefectsofexternaldrivingforces,preventwa-
    terpollutionandthedegradationofecosystems,and
    mitigateclimatechange.Alargenumberofstatesare
    boundbyUNECEenvironmentalconventionsandpro-
    tocols,andhalfoftheMemberStatesareundertheob-
    ligationsoftheEUlegislation.Internationalassistances
    renderedundernationalandEUassistanceprogrammes
    aredecisiveforachievingresponsemeasuresandcon-
    tributetostrengtheningwatergovernance.
    Aparticularchallengestemsfromthelargenumberof
    transboundarywaters,whosestatusiscomprehensive-
    lyassessedonaregularbasisbyUNECEincollabora-
    tionwithgovernmentsandinternationalorganizations
    (UNECE,2007a;UNECE2011b).Morethan
    100rst-ordertransboundaryrivers,withabasin
    areaofover1,000km
    2
    andmanyoftheirtributaries
    runalongorcrosstheborderbetweentwoandmore
    states.Oneoftheserivers,theDanube,has19coun-
    triesinitsbasin.Around40largelakesaresharedby
    twocountries(e.g.LakeGeneva,LakePeipsi,theGreat
    Lakes)oreventhreecountries(e.g.LakeConstance),
    andover100transboundarygroundwateraquifers
    havebeenidentied.Thishasledtostrengthened
    cooperation,supportedbybilateralandmultilateral
    agreementsinEuropeandNorthAmerica.
    30.2Watermanagementandresponse
    measures
    Thekeyexternaldriversintheregionleadtopres-
    suresonwaterresources,inuenceinamultifaceted
    waythestatusofwaterbodies,impactonhuman
    healthandcallforresponsemeasures.Tables30.2
    and30.3summarizetherelativeimportanceofpres-
    suresonwaterresourcesovertypicalsubregionsand
    provideresponsemeasuresdependingonexternal
    drivers(UNECE,2007a;UNECE2011b).Withtherevival
    ofeconomyinEasternEurope,theCaucasusandin
    CentralAsia,ashiftintherelativeimportanceofsome
    pressurefactorsmightoccur.
    TABLE 30.2
    Mainpressuresonwaterresourcesinorderofpriority(fromhightolow)
    Countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia EU-15 countries and North America
    Pressures on water quality
    Municipal sewage treatment, non-sewered population, old
    industrial installations, illegal wastewater discharges, illegal
    disposal of household and industrial wastes in river basins,
    tailing dams and dangerous landlls
    Agriculture and urban sources
    Abstraction pressures
    Agricultural water use Agricultural water use (particularly in Southern Europe),
    major urban centres
    Hydromorphological alterations
    Hydropower dams, irrigation channels, river alterations Hydropower dams, river alterations
    Other pressures
    Agriculture (with a trend to become more severe),
    mining and quarrying
    Selected industries discharging hazardous substances,
    mining and quarrying
    WWDR4 659 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA
    excessivelevelsandgiverisetodetrimentalimpacts
    ontheaquaticenvironment(e.g.eutrophication)and
    humanhealth(UNECE,2011b).Campylobacterand
    Cryptosporidiumexcretedbylivestockgrazingnextto
    waterwaysmakewatersuntforrecreationorcon-
    taminatesourcesofdrinkingwater.Certainfeaturesof
    therurallandscape,suchassmallponds,brooksand
    wetlands,havedisappeared,thusoneoftheirimpor-
    tantrolesinthewatercycleattenuationofpollut-
    antshasbeenlostbecauseofintensiedagricultural
    production.Insomebasins,particularlyinCentralAsia,
    thepredominantconsumptivewateruse(i.e.irriga-
    tion)hasalsoledtoproblems,suchassalinizationof
    soilsandhighmineralsaltcontentsinwaterbodies.
    Thelegalframeworktocutdownpollutionfromagri-
    culturewasestablishedinthe1990s(e.g.EUNitrates
    30.2.1Waterandagriculture
    Agriculturalpracticeintheregionhaschangedcon-
    siderablyoverthepastfourdecades:mechaniza-
    tion,increaseduseoffertilizersandpesticides,farm
    specialization,growthoffarmsize,landdrainageand
    developmentsinanimalhusbandryhaveledtoadverse
    impactsontheaquaticenvironmentwithsomespe-
    cicsubregionaldiferentiationofwateruseandwater
    pollution.Wateruseforcropandanimalproduction,
    forexample,inCentralAsia,Greece,Italy,Portugaland
    Spainaccountsfor5060%ofthetotaluse.Inother
    countries,agricultureonlyaccountsforaround20%,
    whilethebulkisusedbymanufacturingindustriesand
    forcoolingpurposes.
    Inmanyriverbasins,nitrogenandphosphorusfrom
    fertilizersaswellaspesticidesareoftendetectedat
    TABLE 30.3
    Selectedwatermanagementissuesandresponses
    Main issues Possible water management responses
    a

    Pressures by nutrients and pesticides from agriculture with
    economic development as main driver
    Coordination of objectives, coordination of measures and
    combined approach for pollution control from agriculture
    (e.g. good agricultural practice, payments for ecosystem
    services)
    Pressures by specic substances from manufacturing industries
    with economic development as main driver
    Inventory of existing and potential polluters, coordination
    of objectives, coordination of measures and combined
    approach for pollution control from industrial installations
    (e.g. best available technology for hazardous substances,
    pollution reduction through installation of closed water
    systems)
    Pressures by organic matter and bacteriological pollution with
    economic development, demographic patterns, and migration as
    main drivers
    Inventory of existing and potential polluters, coordination
    of objectives, coordination of measures and combined
    approach for pollution control from municipal wastewater
    treatment plants (at least biological treatment or equivalent
    processes)
    Flooding with climate change and economic development as
    main drivers
    Climate change adaptation, holistic approach to ood
    management (combination of non-structural and structural
    measures)
    Pressures due to hydromorphological alterations with economic
    development as main driver
    Re-naturalization of small and medium-sized rivers,
    payment for ecosystem services
    Water scarcity and/or abstraction pressures with economic
    development, demographic patterns, migration and climate
    change as main drivers
    Climate change adaptation, conjunctive management of
    surface waters and groundwaters, licensing groundwater
    use
    Water management in a transboundary context with political
    transitions and security concerns, economic development,
    demographic patterns, migration and climate change as main
    drivers
    Transboundary cooperation as stipulated by applicable
    bilateral and multilateral agreements, implementation
    of the UNECE Water Convention (UNECE, 1992) and its
    Protocols
    a
    TerminologyaccordingtotheWaterFrameworkDirective(EuropeanCommission,2000)andUNECE(2007a,2007b,2009d).
    CHAPTER30 REGIONALREPORTS 660
    DirectiveandnationallegislationinEUcountries,
    NorwayandSwitzerland,CanadaandtheUSA)and
    goodpracticeguidancetocontrolwaterpollution
    byfertilizersandpesticidesinagricultureisbroadly
    availableandapplied.However,agricultureremainsa
    majorconcernastherelativeimportanceofagricul-
    turalpollutionoverindustrialpollutiongrew,mainly
    fromcuttingdownofpollutionbyindustrialenter-
    prisesinmanycountriesoverthelastthreedecades.
    InEUcountrieslocatedinthedrainagebasinsofthe
    MediterraneanSea,theEastAtlanticOcean,theBaltic
    SeaandtheBlackSea,theimpactofagricultureon
    thequalityofwaterresourcesisstillstriking,mostly
    becausetheimplementationoftheabove-mentioned
    piecesoflegislationandrecommendedpractices
    aswellastherecoveryofwaterbodiestakesmore
    timethanexpected(UNECE,2011b).Experiencehas
    alsoshownthatcommandandcontrolapproaches
    promulgatedthroughlegislationneedtobesupple-
    mentedbyvoluntarymeasuresandinnovativenanc-
    ingschemes,suchaspaymentsforecosystemservices
    (UNECE,2007b).
    InEasternEurope,theCaucasusandCentralAsia,ifdif-
    fusepressuresfromtheuseofpesticidesandfertilizers
    inagricultureincreaseinthefuturealongsidetherevival
    ofcountrieseconomies,theirusewillbemuchhigher
    thaninthelastdecadeandwillcausegrowingnegative
    efectsonnationalandtransboundarywatersandhu-
    manhealth.
    Apartfromtheimplementationoflegalregulatory,
    institutionalandmanagementmeasures,itisimpor-
    tanttofocusoneducation,trainingandadvicetopro-
    moteunderstandingofgoodagriculturalpracticeand
    respectforexistinglegislationbyvariouseconomic
    entities.TheestablishmentofNitrateVulnerableZones
    andtheimplementationofactionprogrammesinareas
    whereagriculturalsourcesofnitrateshaveledtoex-
    cessiveconcentrationsinfreshwaterareotherpositive
    examplesfromWesternEurope.Theideaofconserva-
    tionagriculture,developedundertheauspicesofFood
    andAgricultureOrganization(FAO)isanotherexam-
    plethatshouldbetakenupintheagriculturalpractic-
    esofCentralAsiaandothercountries.
    BOX 30.1
    WaterqualityofriversandlakesintheUnitedStates
    IntheUnitedStates,theNationalWaterQualityInventory
    ReporttoCongress(USEPA,2009a;thenextreportwasduein
    2011)covers16%ofthetotalriverlengthand39%ofthelakes
    areas(withtheexceptionoftheGreatLakes).Ingeneral,thein-
    ventoryshowsanimprovementofthewaterquality:thewaters
    weregenerallysuitableforirrigation,supplyingdrinkingwater,
    anddomesticandrecreationaluses.However,thereportalso
    statedthatabouthalfoftheassessedstreammilesand64%
    ofassessedlakeacres(seethersttable)werestillnotclean
    enoughtosupportusessuchasshingandswimming,andre-
    quireenforcementofexistinglegalrequirementsandimprove-
    mentofmanagementpractices,awarenessraisingandtraining.
    Leading causes of impairment in assessed watercourses
    Rivers Lakes and reservoirs
    Pathogens Mercury
    Habitat alterations PCBs
    Organic enrichment Nutrients
    Leadingcausesofimpairmentincludedpathogens,mercury,nutrients,andorganicenrichment/lowdissolvedoxygen.The
    mainpressurefactorswereagricultureandhydromorphologicalmodications.Inareaswithsignicantagriculturalandur-
    bandevelopment,thequalityofsurfacewatersandgroundwatershasbeendegradedbycontaminantssuchaspesticides
    (insecticidesinurbanareas,herbicidesinagriculturalareas),nutrients,metals,andgasoline-relatedcompounds.However,
    concentrationsofcontaminantsinwatersamplesfromwellswerealmostalwayslowerthancurrentEnvironmentProtection
    Authoritydrinkingwaterstandards.
    Water body Assessed Conditions (% of assessed water bodies)
    Good Good but threatened Impaired
    Rivers 16% 53 3 44
    Lakes 39% 35 1 64
    WWDR4 661 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA
    30.2.2Industriesandmunicipalwastewatertreatment
    Mostwaterpollutionproblemsintheregionseemto
    originatefromthegreatnumberofsmallandmedi-
    um-sizedindustries,andsmallmunicipalwastewa-
    tertreatmentplants,ratherthanbigundertakings,
    mostlyequippedwithmodernpollutionabatement
    technologies.
    ThebiggestareaofconcernisEasternEurope,the
    CaucasusandCentralAsia.Theaftermathoftheeco-
    nomicdeclineinthe1990s,whichoftencausedabreak-
    downofessentialinfrastructure,isstillvisible,despite
    manyassistanceprogrammesfromWesternEuropean
    countries.Apartfromsomemajorenterprises,waste-
    watersareusuallydischargedintocollectivesanitation
    systemsfortreatmentatmunicipalwastewatertreat-
    mentplants,whichdonotoperateaccordingtostand-
    ards,astheinfrastructureiswornout.Inadditiontopol-
    lutionbyheavymetals,phosphorusandnitrogen,afew
    watercoursesshowincreasedlevelsofpollutionbyoil
    products,specicallydischargesfromoilreneriesand
    surfacerunoffromrenerysites.Accidentalpollution
    fromindustrialinstallationsandunauthorizeddischarg-
    esofhazardoussubstances(mostlyatnightandduring
    holidays)arestillmajorconcerns.Illegalwastedisposal
    alongrivers,aswellasoldanduncontrolledwastedis-
    posalsitesinmanytransboundaryriverbasinsareaddi-
    tionalpollutionsources.
    Regardingpressuresfromindustriesinbasinsin
    WesternEuropeandNorthAmerica(Box30.1),apar-
    ticularchallengethatneedsproperresponsemeasures
    isthecontrolandreductionofpollutionbynewsub-
    stancesproducedbythechemicalindustry,including
    newpharmaceuticalswhicharedifculttoeliminate
    inwastewatertreatmentprocessesaswellasthe
    controlofpollutionbyprioritysubstancesgivenprovi-
    sionsoftheWaterFrameworkDirectiveandotherap-
    plicabledirectivesoftheEU(EEA,2010b)andother
    relevantregulation.
    InmostofthecountriesthatbecameEUMember
    Statesinthecourseoftheenlargementprocess
    (e.g.Bulgaria,Poland,Romania,Slovakia)aswellas
    intransboundaryandnationalriversdrainingtothe
    EastAtlanticOcean,untreatedorinsufcientlytreated
    industrialwastewaterremainsaconcernandbreak-
    downsofmunicipalwastewatertreatmentsystems
    resultinsignicantdischargesofpollutedwatersinto
    rivers(UNECE,2007a;UNECE2011b).
    30.2.3Abstractionpressures,waterscarcityand
    droughts
    Over-abstraction,waterscarcityanddroughthavea
    directimpactoncitizensandeconomicsectors,and
    largeareasoftheUNECEregionarealreadyafected.
    Therearethreeprincipalareasofconcerninthere-
    gion:abstractionpressurestosatisfyurbanneeds(Box
    30.2);growingabstractionpressuresfromirrigated
    agricultureinmanySouthernEuropeancountries,
    Ukraine,Russia,inCentralAsiaandpartsofCanada
    andtheUnitedStates;andreducedwateravailability
    andincreasedpressureonwaterresourcesbecauseof
    anticipatedclimatechange.Aparticularchallengefor
    countriesinEasternEuropeandCentralAsiaiswa-
    teruseefciencyinirrigatedagriculture(Box30.3).
    Abstractionofwaterforindustrialusehaslargelyde-
    creasedoverthelastthreedecadesinpartsofthere-
    gion,partlyfromageneraldeclineinwater-intensive
    heavyindustryinWesternEuropeandNorthAmerica,
    partlyfromanincreaseinwateruseefciency.
    Inthepast,withgrowingpopulationsandincreasingde-
    mandforwater,Europeslargercitieshavereliedonthe
    surroundingregionforwater.Athens,ParisandIstanbul
    havealldevelopedwidewaternetworksfortransporting
    water,oftenovermorethan100200km.Growingurban
    populations,improvedlifestyles,reducedwateravailabil-
    ityduetoclimatechangeandtheintroductionofdrinking
    waterqualitystandards(thewateraroundlargecitiesis
    oftenpollutedandcannotbeusedfordrinkingwater)are
    allfactorsthatshouldbetakenintoaccountwhenseeking
    toreducethevulnerabilityoflargecitiestowaterstress.
    Indryyears,therehavebeenproblemssupplyingsuf-
    cientwatertothe12millionpeoplelivinginIstanbuland
    thefourmillionAnkara,andwatersupplieshavebeen
    rationed.Duringthe2008drought,Barcelonaturnedof
    civicfountainsandbeachsideshowers,broughtinhose-
    pipebans,andbannedthellingofswimmingpools.In
    thesameyear,Cyprusappliedemergencymeasuresthat
    includedcuttingwatersupplyby30%;andhouseholds
    weresuppliedwithwaterforaround12hoursaday, 3times
    aweek(EEA,2007;EEA,2010b).
    Inagrowingnumberofcases,suchsevererestrictionsin
    emergencysituationsbecamepartofaconsultativepro-
    cesswithstakeholders;thiswasalsoinuencedbythere-
    quirementsoftheAarhusConvention(UNECE,1998).
    BOX 30.2
    Abstractionpressuretosatisfywaterneedsin
    majorcities
    CHAPTER30 REGIONALREPORTS 662
    Abstractionforcoolingwaterhasalsodecreased,giv-
    enadvancedcoolingtechnologies.
    AcomparisonoftheimpactsofdroughtsintheEU
    areabetween19761990and19912006hasboth
    shownadoublingintheafectedareaandadoubling
    inthenumberofafectedpeople.Forexample,an
    intensedroughtthroughouttheIberianPeninsulain
    thehydrologicalyear20042005ledtoa40%average
    decreaseofcerealsproductionandhydroelectricpower
    productionwasheavilyimpacted.Duringsummer2006,
    rainfallinLithuaniawasonlyhalfthelong-termaverage
    andagriculturalproductionfellby30%withanestimat-
    edlossofaround200million.Increasingwaterscar-
    cityalsolimitsaccesstowaterforsanitationpurposes
    andhygiene,whichmayresultinincreasedadverse
    healthimpacts,andwaterscarcityisreducingtheself-
    puricationcapacitiesofwaterbodies(EEA,2010b).
    Droughtmanagementhasbecomeanessentialele-
    mentofwaterresourcepolicyandstrategies,and
    droughtmanagementplans(EuropeanCommission,
    2009)werealreadydrawnuporareunderprepa-
    rationin,forexample,Spain,Portugal,Englandand
    Wales,FinlandandtheUSAtomitigatetheconse-
    quencesofdroughtsandwaterscarcity.Toaddress
    theimpactofdroughtandwaterscarcityonhuman
    health,UNECEandWHO/EUROhavedevelopedspe-
    cicguidanceandrecommendations,whichinclude
    adaptationmeasuresfordrainage,sewerageand
    wastewatertreatment(WHO,2010).
    30.2.4Hydromorphologicalalterations
    Structuralmeasures(e.g.buildingdamsandreservoirs
    forhydropowerandirrigationalagriculture,construct-
    ingdykes,straighteningwaterwaysandenforcingriver
    banks)havecausedsignicanthydromorphological
    changesintheUNECEregion.Thisincludeschangesin
    thehydrologicalregimeofmanyrivers,interruptionof
    riverandhabitatcontinuity,disconnectionofriversfrom
    adjacentwetlandsandoodplains,andchangeofthe
    erosionprocessandsedimenttransport.Formanyrivers,
    restoringformeroodplainsandwetlandswouldboth
    reduceoodriskandimprovetheirecologicalstatus
    (Box30.4).Atthesametime,however,manyEuropean
    countriesarestilldevelopingplansandstudiesfornew
    dams,reservoirsandsmallhydropowerprojects.
    30.2.5Floods
    Sincethebeginningofthiscentury,morethanthree
    millionpeoplehavebeenafectedintheUNECEre-
    gionbyoodsalmosttwomillioninEasternEurope
    aloneexposingpeopletovarioushealthhazards
    andcausingdeaths,displacementofpeopleandlarge
    economiclosses.Majoroodshaveincludedthose
    alongtheDanubeinspring2006andinsummer2009
    inriverssharedbetweenRomaniaandUkraine,and
    theRepublicofMoldovaandUkraine;andin2010in
    theOderbasin,SouthernFrance,andthePrutRiver
    (RomaniaandtheRepublicofMoldova).IntheUSA,
    signicantoodeventsduringthetwentiethcentu-
    rywerecomprehensivelydocumented(Perry,2000).
    Therecentoodsincludethosein2008inNebraska,
    IndianaandIllinoisandtheJune2010oodinArkansas.
    Intheregion,thecostsofoodshaveincreasedrapidly.
    Flooddamageismostlyattributedtosocio-economic
    factors,suchasanincreaseinpopulation,urbaniza-
    tioninood-proneareas,andtounfavourablechanges
    inlandusesuchasdeforestationandlossofwetlands.
    InCentralAsia,theagriculturalsectorensureslivelihoods
    ofhalfofCentralAsiaspopulation.Agricultureconsumes
    morethan90%ofsurfacewaterand43%ofgroundwater.
    ItproducesUS$13.54billionoftheannualdomesticprod-
    uctandplaysacriticalroleinthegenerationofCentral
    AsiastotalgrossdomesticproductofUS$58.5billion
    (Stulina,2009).
    DespitewhatwaslearnedfromtheAralSeadisaster,the
    useofwaterresourcesisstillgearedtomeetthewater
    requirementsofagricultureandhydropowergeneration
    withoutpayingproperattentiontotheneedsofother
    sectorsandnature.Asaresult,drinkingwaterqual-
    ityandhealthoflocalpopulationaredeteriorating;land
    productivityandcropyieldsaredecreasing;andpoverty,
    unemployment,migration,andrisksofconictsarerising
    (GWP/CACENA,2006).
    Measuresarebeingprogressivelyimplementedtoreduce
    waterlossesbyredesigningirrigationsystems,improving
    irrigationtechniques,andapplyingtechnologiesforthe
    reuseofdrainagewater.However,scarcenancialmeans
    oftendelaytheimplementationofmeasures.Therefore
    itwasrecognizedthatinadditiontotheimplementa-
    tionoftechnicalmeasures,amajorobjectiveshouldbe
    theinvolvementofstakeholdersandrelevantsectorsin
    negotiations(coordinatingwaterallocation)anddevelop-
    mentofacceptableforallrulesforwaterallocation.The
    InterstateCommissionforWaterCoordination(ICWC)of
    CentralAsiaistheregionalinstitutionresponsibleforwa-
    terallocationbetweenthecountries.
    BOX 30.3
    AgricultureinCentralAsia
    WWDR4 663 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA
    However,oodsarenaturalphenomenathatcanalso
    bringbenets:seasonaloodplaininundationisessen-
    tialtomaintaininghealthyrivers,creatingnewhabitats,
    depositingsiltsandfertileorganicmaterial,andsus-
    tainingwetlands.Therefore,anintegratedapproachto
    oodmanagementonethatrecognizesboththeop-
    portunitiesprovidedbyoodplainsforsocio-economic
    activitiesandthatmanagestheassociatedrisksis
    beingimplementedinmanycountries(e.g.Austria,
    CzechRepublic,Germany,France,theNetherlands,
    SlovakiaandSwitzerland).Thelessonslearnedfrom
    theseevents,particularlyrelatedtotransboundarywa-
    tercourses,haverecentlybeensummarizedbyUNECE
    andtheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(UNECE,
    2009e)andarenowinpilotapplicationsinintrans-
    boundaryriverbasinssuchastheDniester,sharedby
    UkraineandtheRepublicofMoldova.
    30.2.6Impactonhumanhealth
    Inpartsoftheregion,inadequatesanitation,improp-
    erwastewatertreatment,unsafedisposalmethods
    forchemicals,andfertilizersandpesticidesthatleak
    intosourcesofwatersupplythreatenhumanhealth.
    Microbialcontaminationofthesourcesofdrinking
    waterandwaterusedforrecreationalpurposesisone
    oftheconsequencesasitisthecasewithman-made
    chemicalpollutionofthesourcesofdrinkingwater
    supply;insomecasesthenaturalbackgroundpollution
    causesimmenseproblems,forexample,inHungary
    (naturallyoccurringarsenic)andtheCaucasus(rela-
    tivelyhighbackgroundconcentrationofsomemetals
    duetotheweatheringofrocks).
    Onehundredandtwentymillionpeople
    2
    inthe
    Europeanregiondonothaveaccesstosafedrinking
    water.Evenmorelackaccesstosanitation,resulting
    inwater-relateddiseaseslikediarrhoea,typhoidfever
    (170,000reportedcasesin2006,whichisprobablyan
    underestimate)andhepatitisA.InEasternandSouth-
    easternEurope,theCaucasusandCentralAsia,access
    toimprovedsourcesofdrinkingwaterandimproved
    sanitationisparticularlyinadequateinruralareas.In
    WesternEuropeandNorthAmerica,outbreaksofwa-
    ter-relateddiseasesoccuroccasionallydespitestate-of-
    the-artofwaterpuricationandwastewatertreatment
    technology.Forexample,theUSAreportedthatchemi-
    cals(16%),viruses(6%),bacteria(18%),andparasitic
    protozoa(21%)wereidentiedascausesofoutbreaks
    whereasintheremaining39%ofcases,itwasnotpos-
    sibletoidentifytheexactsource(Greeret al.,2008;
    CentresforDiseaseControlandPrevention,2011).
    LikemanyotherEuropeanrivers,theDanubeisheavily
    inuencedbyhumanactivities,suchasintensivenaviga-
    tionandhydraulicengineering.Onmanystretchesthe
    naturalstructureoftheriverhasbeenchanged,including
    itsdepthandwidth,owregime,naturalsedimenttrans-
    portandshmigrationroutes.Damshavebeenbuiltin
    mountainareasandsomelowlandregionsoftheDanube
    basin;andnavigationchannels,dykesandirrigationnet-
    worksarewidespreadalongthemiddleandlowerreaches
    oftheDanube:
    HorethanfourffthsoftheDanubeisregulatedfor
    oodprotection,andabout30%ofitslengthisim-
    poundedforhydropowergeneration.
    AbouthalfoftheDanubetributariesareusedtogener-
    atehydropowerofaround30,000MW.
    Horethandamsandweirshavebeenbuiltalong
    themaintributariesoftheDanube.
    TheDanubeRiverBasinManagementPlanaddresseshy-
    dromorphologicalalterations.Basin-wideobjectivesby
    2015includetheconstructionofshmigrationaidsand
    othermeasurestoachieveandimproverivercontinuityin
    theDanubeRiverandinrespectivetributariestoensure
    reproducingandself-sustainingofsturgeonspeciesand
    speciedothermigratoryspecies,aswellastheresto-
    ration,conservationandimprovementofhabitatsand
    theircontinuityforsturgeonspeciesandspeciedother
    migratoryspeciesintheDanubeRiveranditstributaries
    (ICPDR,2007).
    InWesternEurope,initiativestoenhancethenaturalen-
    vironmentandimproveitscapacitytoperformecosys-
    temserviceshavebeenbroughtforwardundertheWater
    FrameworkDirective(e.g.theDutchRoomfortheRiver
    programme,theSpanishNationalStrategyforRestoring
    Rivers)orundernationallegislation(e.g.theSwiss
    GuidingPrinciplesforSustainableWaterManagement).
    AninnovativeapproachintheUNECEregionispayment
    forecosystemservices(PES),whichiswidelyusedin
    LatinAmerica(Wunder,2005)andexploredintheUNECE
    region(UNECE,2005).Prominentexamplesfromthe
    UNECEregion(UNECE,2007b)includethewatersup-
    plyofNewYorkCity(Catskill/Delawarebasinmanage-
    mentprogramme),thenitratestrategyofSwitzerland,
    agro-environmentalmeasuresaspartoftheEUCommon
    AgriculturalPolicy,andthemanagementofnaturalmin-
    eralwaterspringsinFrance(Nestl/Vittel).Underthe
    UNECEWaterConvention,pilotprojectsonpaymentsfor
    ecosystemserviceshavebeencarriedoutinKyrgyzstan
    (LakeIssykKulbasin)andinArmenia.
    BOX 30.4
    HydromorphologicalalterationsintheDanube
    Basin
    CHAPTER30 REGIONALREPORTS 664
    Duringoods,peoplemaybeexposedtohealthhaz-
    ards,suchasfreshwaterpollution(particularlythe
    contaminationofthesourcesofdrinkingwaterby
    pathogensandwaste),lackofhouseholdhygiene,and
    reductionoffoodsafety.Watersupplyandsanitation
    utilitiesarealsokeyhealthdeterminantsduringheat
    andcoldwaves.
    Thesafetyofthewatersupplyandsanitationsec-
    torclearlyreliesoncloseinter-sectoralcooperation;
    however,itwasnotuntiltheendofthe1990sbefore
    Governmentsintheregionundertookconcertedinter-
    nationalactiontoprevent,controlandreducewater-
    relateddiseases,includingresponsesystemstocoun-
    teracthealthhazardsduetoincidentsandoutbreaks
    ofwater-relateddiseases.Theseinternationaleforts
    culminatedintheProtocolonWaterandHealthtothe
    UNECEWaterConvention.Itistherstinternational
    agreement,whichbylinkingwatermanagementand
    healthissuesaimstoensuretheadequatesupplyof
    safedrinkingwaterandadequatesanitationforeve-
    ryone.ItcomplementstheUNECEWaterConvention
    withfurthermeasurestostrengthentheprotection
    ofpublichealth,particularlyatthenationallevel,for
    example,byestablishingormaintainingcomprehen-
    sivenationaland/orlocalsurveillanceandearlywarn-
    ingsystemstopreventandrespondtowater-related
    diseases.Fromitsentryintoforcein2005untilnow,
    ithasalreadyyieldedpositiveresults:thepartiesto
    theProtocolnotonlystrengthenedtheirmeasuresto
    achievethewater-relatedandhealth-relatedMDGs,
    butalsoinitiatedmeasurestoachievewatersup-
    plyandsanitationforeveryonebeyond2015(UNECE,
    2010;UNECE,2011a).Internationalassistancethrough
    inter aliaprovidingaccesstosourcesofnanceforin-
    frastructureprojectsisalsopartofthisinstrument,and
    isalreadybeingrenderedfortheRepublicofMoldova
    andUkraine.
    30.3Uncertaintiesandrisks
    Watermanagementadaptscontinuouslytouncertain-
    tiesandrespondstorisksthatareposedbyexternal
    drivingforcesand/orpolitical,economicandtechni-
    calresponses.Thisrequiresnewkindsofactionfrom
    allstakeholders,includingnationalandlocalgovern-
    mentsand,fortransboundarywaters,fromtheparties
    toagreements.
    30.3.1Non-climaticdrivers
    Thefactthatmanywaterbodiescrossboundariesbe-
    tweentwoormorestatesmeansthatchallengesand
    risksaresharedandthatsolutionsneedtobecoor-
    dinated.Sincethe1970sandearly1980s,countries
    havebeenengaginginagrowingnumberofmultilat-
    eralandbilateralagreementstoregulatetheuseand
    protectionoftransboundarywaters,andsincethe
    1990s,thecountriesthatevolvedafterthedissolution
    oftheformerSovietUnionhavebeentakingmeasures
    toestablishtransboundarywatercooperation.Many
    havejoinedinternationalconventionsandagreements
    and/orhaveenteredintonewbilateralandmultilateral
    agreementsandestablishedjointbodies(e.g.riveror
    lakecommissions,meetingsofplenipotentiaries)to
    facilitatetransboundarywatercooperation.Asare-
    sult,thestatusofmanywatercoursesintheregionhas
    beenconsiderablyimprovedandtherearefarfewer
    disputesoversharedwaterscomparedtotheearlier
    1990s(UNECE,2009b;2011b).TheUNECEConvention
    ontheProtectionandUseofTransboundary
    WatercoursesandInternationalLakes(UNECEWater
    Convention)adoptedin1992andenteredintoforce
    in1996(UNECE,1992)hasplayedanimportantrolein
    thisprocess.
    However,afewrst-andsecond-ordertransbound-
    aryriversandmanytransboundaryaquifers(UNECE,
    2011b)inEasternEurope,theCaucasusandCentral
    Asia,aswellasinSouth-EasternEuropearenotyet
    coveredbyagreements,andinsomecasesexisting
    agreementsandjointbodiesdonotefectivelyaddress
    suchcurrentchallengesaseconomicdevelopment.In
    addition,somestateseitherinsidetheregionorbor-
    deringitresistparticipatinginagreementsontrans-
    boundarywatercourses,whetherframeworkagree-
    mentsorthoseforspecicwatercourses.Thisleadsto
    uncertaintiesandrisksintransboundarywaterman-
    agementwheretherearenoformalchannelsforjoint
    action.
    Whileaprerequisiteforefectivecooperationispoliti-
    calwill,jointbodiesmustalsohave,fromtheonset,
    therightstructuresandmechanismstoefectivelyad-
    dresstheirtasks.Tocopewithuncertaintiesandrisks
    intransboundarycooperation,themanyexistingjoint
    bodiesincountriesintransitionimprovetheiractivi-
    tiesbystrengtheninginstitutionalmechanisms.This
    impliesachievingbetterrepresentationofnational
    authoritiesinthejointbodyandimprovingcoordina-
    tionatthenationallevel,andelicitinggreaternancial
    commitmentsbyriparianstatestocoverimplementa-
    tionofjointprogrammesandexpensesoforganiza-
    tionalstructure.
    WWDR4 665 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA
    Insufcientaccessto,andcumbersomeconditions
    for,theexchangeofwaterqualityandwaterquan-
    titydataandinformationinatransboundarycontext
    aswellasinformationaboutdriversandtheirimpact
    onwatermanagementalsoposeuncertaintiesand
    risks.Insomecases,ofcialcommunicationlinesgo
    throughtheministriesofforeignafairs,althoughthe
    environmentministriesorstatewatercommitteesare
    increasinglyempoweredwithtransboundarydata
    exchange.Inrecentyears,jointbodiesestablished
    bycountriesinEasternEuropeandCentralAsiahave
    takensomestepstowardsimprovingaccesstoinfor-
    mationandstakeholderparticipation.Participation
    ofnon-governmentalorganizationsandotherstake-
    holdersintheactivitiesofjointbodiesexistsformany
    jointbodiesinNorthAmericaandWesternEurope
    (e.g.theInternationalJointCommission(GreatLakes,
    NorthAmerica)andtheRhine,MeuseandScheldtriver
    commissions).Attheendof2007,theplenipotentiar-
    iesoftheRepublicofMoldovaandUkraineadopted
    aRegulationonStakeholderParticipation.Thisisthe
    rstexampleofformalizedprocedureforthedissemi-
    nationofinformationandpromotionofpublicpartici-
    pationintheactivitiesofthejointbodiesinEastern
    Europe,theCaucasusandCentralAsia.Lackofnanc-
    esisoftenoneofthebarrierstobroadeningaccessto
    informationandpublicparticipation.
    Copingwiththeincreasingwaterdemandsofdifer-
    entsectorsofeconomyposesparticularchallenges
    andhasledormayleadtouncertaintiesaboutproper
    responsemeasures.Anexampleiswaterallocation
    amongripariancountries,asdisagreementremains
    overusequotasfortheupstreamanddownstreamus-
    ersbelongingtodiferentstates,asitisthecasefor
    someriversinthedischargeareaoftheCaspianSea.
    Asimilarissuearoseinwaterallocationbetweendif-
    ferentsectorsofeconomy,suchastheclassicalcon-
    ictbetweenhydropowerproduction(highreleasesof
    waterduringwintertoproduceenergyoftenassoci-
    atedwithman-madeoodingofdownstreamareas)
    andirrigatedagriculture(withhighwaterdemandsin
    thegrowingseasonwhentheupstreamreservoirsare
    beinglledup),whichisparticularlyobviousinCentral
    Asia(AmuDaryaandSyrDaryabasins).Thishasnot
    yetbeensolvedsatisfactorily;however,theexisting
    jointbodies,undertheumbrellaofInternationalFund
    forSavingtheAralSea(IFAS)(Box30.3),arenow
    approachingtheproblemasthewaterdemandfrom
    othersectorsisalsogrowing(includinganexpected
    growthofwaterdemandinAfghanistananupstream
    countryoutsidetheUNECEregion)overthenexttwo
    decades,andintheAralSeabasinareductionfrom
    around2,500m
    3
    percapitaandyearto1,800m
    3
    or
    even1,300m
    3
    dependingondevelopmentscenarios.
    Otherexamplesofuncertaintiesandrisksrefertothe
    conictbetweenwateruseforeconomicactivitiesand
    waterforthemaintenanceofaquaticecosystems.Lake
    Balqash,locatedinKazakhstanandmainlyfedbythe
    transboundaryriverIliwithitssourceinChina,may
    suferthesamefateoftheAralSeaifKazakhstanand
    Chinafailtoagreeonsustainablewateruseandpollu-
    tioncontrol.ThejointKazakhstanChinaCommission
    hasrecognizedthisissueandisapproachingasolu-
    tiontotheproblemwithextremecautionowingtothe
    many(scientic)uncertaintiesinvolvedabouttheim-
    pactofresponsemeasuresontheaquaticecosystem
    oftheLake.
    Growingabstractionpressures,includingfromground-
    wateraquifers,isanotherconcernoftransboundary
    cooperation.Theworkofmanyjointbodiesinthearea
    oftransboundarygroundwatersisstillinsufcient;this
    appliesacrosstheregion,perhapswithsomeexemp-
    tionsinWesternEuropeandNorthAmerica.Thestafs
    ofjointbodies,oftentrainedinthemanagementof
    surfacewatersratherthangroundwaters,donotsu-
    pervisewatersupplyfromgroundwatersandtheli-
    censingofgroundwaterabstraction.
    Insomecountries,theaftermathofthepoliticalchang-
    esofthe1990sandthe20082009globaleconomic
    crisiscontinuestoimpactthestabilityandsecuritysit-
    uation,eventoday,withadverseefectsonwaterand
    theenvironmentaswellasinternationalcooperation
    ontransboundarywaters(Box30.5).
    Inareasthatwitnessedarmedconicts,infrastruc-
    turewasdestroyed,causingpollution,andinternally
    displacedpeopleandrefugeeshaveputadditional
    pressureonwatersupplyandsanitation.Examples
    includethearmedconictsintheBalkans(1990s)
    andintheCaucasus(ArmeniaandAzerbaijaninthe
    1990s;GeorgiaandtheRussianFederationin2009).
    Theinternalpoliticalconictsandethnictensionsin
    Kyrgyzstaninthesummerof2010,causingdeath
    amongitsownpopulationandlargenumbersofrefu-
    gees,posesuncertaintiesandrisks:itmaynotonly
    havenegativeefectsontransboundarywaterman-
    agementintheFerghanaValley(AralSeabasin)asit
    wasthecasewiththecountrysruralwatersupplyand
    CHAPTER30 REGIONALREPORTS 666
    strategiesdependonthemagnitudeandnatureofthe
    observedandpredictedimpacts,assessmentsofcur-
    rentandfuturevulnerabilityandthecountriescapac-
    itytoadapt.Inaddition,someactionsandmeasures
    areincreasinglybeingtakenatregionalandlocallev-
    els.However,thestrategiesarelong-termprogrammes
    whoseimmediateefectsaredifculttoassess.
    Ensuringadequatenancialmeanstoimplementadap-
    tationmeasuresisanimportantpreconditionforsuc-
    cess;however,therearestillmanyuncertaintiesabout
    theabilityofanumberofcountriestoadaptwaterman-
    agementtoclimatechange.Forexample,inEastern
    Europe,theCaucasusandCentralAsia,uncertaintiesre-
    mainastoinvestmentandfundingforadaptationmeas-
    uresandthereisalackofcapacity(includinghuman
    resources)foradaptation.Widespreadpovertyinthese
    countriesalsolimitstheiradaptivecapacity.Moreover,
    policymakersarenotusedtouncertaintyandriskcon-
    siderationswhentakingdecisionsrelatedtowaterman-
    agement,watersupplyandsanitation.
    Thereisanotherchallengeforwatermanagers(UNECE,
    2009a):climatemitigationmeasuresmayproduce
    adverseside-efectsforwatermanagement.Oneex-
    ampleiswaterforfoodproductionversuswaterfor
    bio-energycrops.Large-scalebiofuelproductionmay
    increasewaterdemandandmaycontaminatefreshwa-
    terfromenhancedleachingofpesticidesandnutrients,
    andinconictswithfoodproduction.Hydroelectric
    powerplantsadverselyafecttheexistingriverecosys-
    temsandsheries,forexample,duetochangesinow
    regime,watertemperatureregime,andoxygencon-
    centrations.Conversely,theyhelptoregulateowand
    areneededforirrigation.
    Anotherexampleisinlandwaterwaytransport,which
    playsanimportantroleinthetransportofgoodsin
    CentralEuropeandisgenerallyseenasmoreenviron-
    mentallyfriendlythanroadtransport.However,navi-
    gationactivitiesandinfrastructureworksaretypically
    associatedwitharangeofhydromorphologicalchang-
    eswithpotentiallyadverseecologicalconsequences.
    Thus,despitetheadvantageofmitigationpoliciesfor
    societyandforreducinggreenhousegasemissions,
    thereisaneedtostrikeabalancebetweentheben-
    etsandtheimpactsontheecologicalstatusofwater
    bodies,adjacentlandecosystemsandwetlands.
    Manyriverbasinsthatarealreadystressedduetonon-
    climaticdriversarelikelytobecomemorestressed
    sanitationsystems,butalsonegativelyimpacttheso-
    lutionoftransboundaryissuesintheentirebasin.
    30.3.2Climatechange
    Theneedtoaddressclimatechangeisamajorconcern
    astheentireUNECEregionaccountsforapproximate-
    lyone-halfoftheglobalgreenhousegasemissions.
    Climatechangeimpactwillvaryconsiderablyfrom
    regiontoregionandevenfrombasintobasin.These
    willincludeincreasedriskofinlandashoods,and
    morefrequentcoastalooding,intensiederosionand
    extensivespecieslosses(EEA,2008;UNECE,2009a,
    UNECE,2011b);itmayalsoafecthydropower,shipping,
    tourismandrecreation,shorelinestructuresandhu-
    manhealth(Greeretal.,2008;USEPA,2007).
    GovernmentsinEurope(EEA,2010a)areatdiferent
    stagesofpreparing,developingandimplementing
    nationaladaptationstrategies,andtheUnitedStates
    EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyreleasedin2008
    theNationalWaterProgrammeStrategywithspecic
    actionstoadaptprogrammeimplementationinlight
    ofclimatechange(USEPA,2009b).Theadaptation
    TheEmergingEuropeandCentralAsiaregion
    3
    wasthe
    mostafectedbytheglobalnancialandeconomiccrisis
    beginninginmid-2008,withdeclinesineconomicoutput
    in2009averagingabout6%.Theeconomicdeclineshad
    majorsocio-economicimplications,forexample,thenum-
    berofunemployedduringtherstsixmonthsof2009
    grewbyalmosthalfinRussiaandTurkeycomparedto
    thesameperiodin2008.Asmostcountriescanexpect
    atbestamildgrowthinthecomingyears,thecrisiswill
    continuetohindertheachievementoftheMillennium
    DevelopmentGoals(MDGs)andhumandevelopmentin
    theregion.Inparticular,therearelimitedprospectsforin-
    creasingsocialprotectionbecauseoftheexpectedweak-
    nessoftheeconomicrecoveryandtheaccumulationof
    publicdebt(UNECE,2010).Thenancialcrisispresents
    riskstofurtherdevelopingthewatersector;however,it
    alsoprovidesopportunitiestoreinforcecommitmentsto
    investinwaterservicesandinfrastructureaspartofs-
    calstimuluspackages.TheEuropeanUnionandUnited
    NationsEconomicCommissionforEurope(UNECE)
    MemberStatesplayacrucialroleinthesepolicyareas,
    usingpublicspendingandgrantstocreateandmaintain
    necessaryinfrastructure,promotetechnologicalinnova-
    tion,supportbehaviouralchangeandrenderfurtherassis-
    tancetocountriesintransition(OECD,2009).
    BOX 30.5
    Impactofthe20082009globaleconomiccrisis
    WWDR4 667 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA
    becauseoftheirvulnerabilitytoclimatechange.Of
    particularrelevanceisthevulnerabilitytoclimate
    changeofcostlywaterinfrastructures(e.g.oodde-
    fencestructures,watersupplyandsanitationinfra-
    structure),whichhavetoservefordecadesbutwere
    designedontheassumptionofstationaryclimatic
    conditions.Moreover,policytoolssuchaslandplan-
    ningarebasedonstableoldclimatescenarios,which
    didnottakeintoaccountvariabilityandchange.Other
    uncertaintiesrelatedtoclimatechangeincludethestill
    insufcientknowledgebase.
    Uncertaintiesofclimatepredictionsandpredictions
    ofprecipitationpatternsattheriver-basinscalemake
    scenariodevelopmentparticularlydifcultforsmall-
    erriverbasins(UNECE,2011b).Pilotprojectswere
    recentlyinitiated,withnancefromdonorcoun-
    triesfromWesternEurope,intheChu-Talasbasin
    (Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan)andtheSavabasin(Bosnia
    andHerzegovina,Croatia,Serbia,Slovenia).Otherjoint
    bodies,suchasthosefortheRhine,Meuse,Scheldt
    andDanube,alsochallengethebasincountriestode-
    velopamorecoordinatedapproachandaddressthe
    efectsthatposethehighestriskanduncertaintiesto
    humanhealthandwatermanagement,andtodevelop
    appropriateadaptationmeasurestonewrisksasthey
    becomebetterunderstood.
    30.4Watergovernance
    WatergovernanceiswellrecognizedintheUNECE
    regionasameansforefectivewatermanagementat
    thelocal,nationalandtransboundarylevels.Strategies,
    policies,legislationandassistanceinitiativesde-
    signedasresponsemeasuresareatthesametime
    politicaldriverstoachievewatergovernance.
    Problemsremain:inmanycountriesinEasternEurope,
    theCaucasusandCentralAsia,capacitiesofinstitu-
    tionstendtobeweakduetotheinstitutionalcollapse
    andeconomicdislocationthatmarkedtheearlyyears
    ofthetransition.Whilemanyofthesecountrieshave
    madegreatstridesinreformingpublicadministration
    anddevelopingadynamiccivilsociety,thenewinsti-
    tutionsarenotyetstableorwell-rooted,norhavethey
    completelymovedawayfromtheoldmodeoffunc-
    tioning.Thepoliticalwilltonanceenvironmentalpro-
    tectionisalsoweak;regularcutsinbudgetaryfund-
    ingindicatethatenvironmentalprotectionreceives
    littleattention,andsometimes,theallocatedfundsare
    notevenenoughtoensurethenormalfunctioningof
    stateagencies.Moreover,itisdifculttorecruithighly
    qualiedstafbecausesalariesarelowandpublicau-
    thoritiesarenotheldinhighesteem(UNECE,2007c;
    MottMacDonald,2010).
    ThenewEUMemberStateshaveaccomplishedgreater
    progressinbuildingnewinstitutionalstructures.They
    wereassistedonmultiplefrontsbytheacceptance
    oftheEuropeanmodeloferedbyEUmembership
    asapowerfulincentiveforcollectiveaction,andby
    massivenancialandknowledgeassistance(UNECE,
    2010).NotwithstandingthefocusofUNECEandthe
    EuropeanCommissiononwatergovernanceincoun-
    triesintransition,therearealsochallengesingovern-
    anceinothercountries,particularlythosewithafed-
    eralstructure(e.g.Germany,USA)withmultipleactors
    withineachjurisdiction(RogersandHall,2003;Moss,
    2004;NormanandBakker,2009;andCohen,2010).
    30.4.1Legislationandassistanceinitiatives
    TheEUlegislationisanimportantresponsemeasure
    totheexternaldriversandaddressesinter aliawater
    problemsintheEUareaandbeyond.Acomprehensive
    rangeoflegislationhasbeenestablishedforthispur-
    pose,includingDirectivesrelatedtourbanwastewater
    treatment(1991),tocontrolandlimitnitratepollution
    fromagriculture(1991),toregulatethequalityofdrink-
    ingwater(1998)otherareasrelatedtowater-and-
    healthissues.Themostimportantpieceoflegislation
    istheWaterFrameworkDirective(WFD),concluded
    in2000(EuropeanCommission,2000).ThisDirective
    expandsthescopeofwaterprotectiontoallwaters,
    andrequirestheachievementofagoodstatusforall
    watersinEUcountriesby2015.TheWFDisadirectre-
    sponseoftheEuropeanCommunitiesandtheMember
    Statestofullltheirobligationsunderinternationalcon-
    ventionsonwaterprotectionandmanagement,particu-
    larlytheUNECEWaterConvention(UNECE,1992).The
    WFDincludesastrongeconomiccomponent:itre-
    quiresthatEUMemberStatesimplementfullrecovery
    oftheenvironmentalandresourcecostsofwaterser-
    vices;andwaterpricingpoliciesaretobeestablished
    thatprovideadequateincentivesfortheefcientuse
    ofwaterresources.Morerecently,daughterdirectives,
    suchasthoseonenvironmentalqualitystandards,
    oodsandgroundwaters,supplementtheWFD.
    Apartfromitsefecttoimprovewatermanagementin
    EUcountries,theapplicationofprinciplesoftheWFD
    isofimmenseimportancetoimprovingwaterman-
    agementandcuttingdownpollutionincountriesat
    theEasternborderoftheEU(Belarus,theRepublicof
    CHAPTER30 REGIONALREPORTS 668
    Moldova,Ukraine,Armenia,AzerbaijanandGeorgia).
    ThisisthereasonfortheEU(EuropeanCommission,
    2007)tosupportthesecountriesundertheEuropean
    NeighbourhoodandPartnershipInstrument(ENPI).
    UNECEEnvironmentalConventionsandProtocolsare
    anotherresponsetotheexternaldriverstoresolve
    nationalandtransboundaryissuesofwatermanage-
    ment,airpollution,industrialaccidents,impactas-
    sessmentandpublicparticipation.Forwhatconcerns
    watermanagement,thecentralaimofthe1992UNECE
    WaterConventionistostrengthenlocal,nationaland
    regionalmeasurestoprotectandensurethequantity,
    qualityandsustainableuseoftransboundarywaters.
    Itstipulatesmanagingsharedwatersinareasonable
    andequitablemannerandcallsforactionguidedby
    theprecautionaryprincipleandbasedonthepolluter-
    paysprinciple.TheConventionrequirespartiestoenter
    intospecicbilateralormultilateralagreementsandto
    createinstitutionsjointbodiessuchasriverandlake
    commissionstomeettheseresponsibilities.
    TheEnvironmentforEuropeprocess,includingits
    ministerialconferences,becameanotherprominent
    responsemeasuretotheexternaldriversintheregion.
    UNECEMemberStates,UNsystemorganizationsand
    otherintergovernmentalorganizationsrepresented
    intheregion,regionalenvironmentcentres,non-gov-
    ernmentalorganizations,theprivatesectorandother
    majorgroupsactinpartnershiptohelpcountriesin
    transitiontoraisetheirenvironmentalstandardsto-
    wardsacommonregionalbenchmark,provideaccess
    tosourcesofnance,andshareexperienceandgood
    practice.
    30.4.2NationalPolicyDialogues
    Internationalsupporttostrengthenwatergovern-
    anceshouldbeaprocessthatinvolvesandsupports
    twodistinctlevelsofdecision-making:decision-mak-
    ingontechnicalandmanagerialissuesanddecision-
    makingonpolicyissues.ThisgaverisetotheNational
    PolicyDialoguesonintegratedwaterresourcesman-
    agement,watersupplyandsanitationaspartofthe
    EUWaterInitiative,launchedattheWorldSummiton
    SustainableDevelopmentinJohannesburgin2002,
    whichcoversnineofthe12countriesinEasternEurope,
    theCaucasusandCentralAsia.
    Ontheonehand,technicalassistanceprogrammesby
    theEUandWesternEuropeanCountriesenhancethe
    expertiseofstafinthewaterenvironmentministries
    andimprovelegislation,institutionsandmanagement
    practices.Ontheother,NationalPolicyDialogues
    ledbytheministersforenvironmentenhancethe
    politicalsupportofwatermanagementbykeymin-
    istriessuchaseconomy,nance,justice,emergency
    situations,andforeignafairs,andinvolveadditional
    stakeholders(e.g.academia,non-governmentalor-
    ganizations,parliamentarybodiesresponsiblefor
    environment,andinternationalorganizationsand-
    nancialinstitutions).Theproductionofhighlypolicy-
    relevantoutputs,suchasnewpiecesoflegislation
    (Box30.6)inlinewiththeprinciplesoftheUNECE
    WaterConvention,theProtocolonWaterandHealth,
    theEUWaterFrameworkDirectiveandotherUNECE
    andEUinstruments,thestrongcountrycommitment
    andthecooperationwithotherinternationalorganiza-
    tionsareamongthestrengthsoftheNationalPolicy
    Dialoguesintheregion,andameanstostrengthen
    watergovernance.
    Ofthe623municipalwastewatertreatmentplantscon-
    structedinmajorcitiesandothersettlementsinThe
    RepublicofMoldova,only24%wereoperationalin2010.
    Thishasledtoagrowingamountofuntreatedwastewa-
    terbeingdischargedintotheriversystemandonly4%
    ofplantstreatwastewateraccordingtoexistinglegal
    requirements.Inaddition,sanitationisunsatisfactorilyin
    ruralareas,where70%ofhousesarenotconnectedtothe
    seweragesystem.
    Anassistanceprogrammeisbeingdeveloped,supported
    byEuropeanUnion(EU)funds,andfundsprovidedby
    otherWestEuropeancountries,torehabilitateinfra-
    structureinmunicipalitiesandimprovesanitationinrural
    areas.Newwastewatertreatmentlegislation,modeled
    onthebasisofEUlegislation,wasdrawnupunderthe
    NationalPolicyDialogueprocessandenteredintoforcein
    October2008.Thisnewlegislationprovidesasoundba-
    sisfortherehabilitationofexistingandtheconstruction
    ofnewmunicipalwastewatertreatmentplants,asitno
    longerreliesontheoutdatedSoviet-stylerequirements.
    Thus,thetreatmentperformanceofthestate-of-the-art
    Westerntreatmenttechnologynolongerclasheswithfor-
    merSoviet-styleMoldovanstandardsandnolongerforces
    theMinisterforEnvironmenttoapplytotheGovernment
    forexceptionsfromthelawtoinstallthesetechnologies
    (UNECE,2011a).
    BOX 30.6
    Wastewatertreatmentinfrastructureinthe
    RepublicofMoldova
    WWDR4 669 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA

    Notes
    1 Eighthundredandseventymillionpeopleliveinthepan-
    Europeanregion,atermwhichdoesnotincludeNorthAmerica
    andIsrael.TheUSAhasatotalresidentpopulationofabout310
    million;Canada34millionandIsrael7million(UNECEStatistical
    DivisionDatabaseathttp://www.unece.organdUNECE,2010).
    2 NorthAmericaisnotincludedinthesegures,whichwere
    compiledbytheRegionalOfceforEuropeoftheWorldHealth
    Organization(WHO/EURO)
    3 CountriesinEasternEurope,theCaucasusandCentralAsia
    andSouth-EasternEurope,includingTurkey,andthenew
    EUMemberStates(Table30.1).

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    UNESCAP(EnergySecurityandWaterResourcesSection,Environmentand
    DevelopmentDivision)

    AuthorsTiLe-HuuandErminaSokou
    1

    ContributorsFelixSeebacher,SalmahZakariaandMarinaKorzenevica
    AcknowledgementsInputswereprovidedfromFelixSeebacheronwastewater
    management,SalmahZakariaonclimatechangeadaptationandMarinaKorzenevica
    oncountry-specicpolicies.
    CHAPTER 31
    Asia and the Pacic
    FAO/GiulioNapolitano

    Trends and major challenges
    Millions of people in the Asia-Pacic region are still not connected to improved water
    infrastructure for personal and productive uses, placing them in a state of human insecurity.
    In 2008, about 480 million people lacked access to improved water resources, while 1.9 billion
    had no access to improved sanitation facilities.
    Population size, rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development put pressure
    on freshwater resources. The regions water resources are also increasingly vulnerable to and
    threatened by natural disasters and pollution.
    Natural water-related disasters such as oods and droughts undermine economic
    development. Coastal and ood-prone areas, where much economic growth is generated,
    are often struck by typhoons and rainstorms.
    Of all wastewater generated, only 1520% receives some level of treatment before discharge into
    water resources. The total volume of domestic wastewater currently produced in urban areas
    is a particular concern, estimated to be between 150 and 250 million cubic metres per day. This
    wastewater either is discharged directly into open water bodies or leaches into the ground.
    Richer, urban households are in a better position to secure safe water and adequate
    sanitation. Inequalities in access to water between rich and poor households are evident all
    over Asia, but for sanitation, the inequality is more striking.
    Emerging needs
    Providing water and sanitation services to all requires sizeable nancial resources US$59 billion
    to meet the Millennium Development Goal of access to water and $71 billion to provide
    access to sanitation. If investment needs for all water services are included, the total annual
    investment costs for water infrastructure could reach $180 billion, of which $100 billion is
    needed in developing countries.
    Extremes of ood and drought are expected to increase in both magnitude and frequency as
    a result of climate change.
    Policies and solutions
    To address the lack of adequate nancing, time horizons of investment assessment need
    to be expanded. Environmental costs should be factored into prices charged for water and
    sanitation services. Governments need to create the market conditions for the development
    of sustainable and eco-efcient infrastructure.
    Integrated stormwater management can prove invaluable during oods, as clean water bodies
    minimize spreading of polluted water and disease. Integrated rainwater harvesting, thanks to
    advances in technology, is also viewed as an integral part of water cycle management.
    Central sewage treatment plants require a very large space, and are costly and difcult to
    maintain. Technology for compact small wastewater treatment plants has improved and
    ofers many advantages.
    Certain water-related challenges, such as stagnant access to sanitation, deteriorating
    water quality, and climate-related risks, are common in Asia-Pacic countries. Targeted,
    urgent action is needed to break the developmental deadlock that many countries nd
    themselves in due to poor water resources management. Promoting household water
    security, recognizing the need to adapt to climate change threats and initiating a Wastewater
    Revolution are proposed priorities for regional cooperation.
    WWDR4 673 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC
    31.1Introduction
    AsiaandthePacicandESCAPregionrefertothe
    groupofmembersandassociatemembersofthe
    EconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthe
    Pacic(ESCAP)thatfallwithintheregion.Thegeo-
    graphicaldescriptionoftheregionusedinthischapter
    includes55memberstatesofESCAPinthevesubre-
    gions:CentralAsia,North-EastAsia,thePacic,South
    AsiaandSouth-EastAsia,asshowninTable31.1.
    31.1.1GeneraltrendsintheAsia-Pacic
    TheAsia-Pacicregionhasthelargestshareofrenew-
    ablefreshwaterresourcesintheworld,at21,135bil-
    lionm
    2
    .Thisendowmentiscoupledwithhighwater
    utilizationrates.Onaverage,theregionwithdraws11%
    ofitstotalrenewableresources,secondintheworld
    afterthewater-scarceMiddleEastandonparwith
    Europeanutilizationrates(ESCAP,2009a).
    Despitesomeprogress,millionsintheAsia-Pacicre-
    maindisconnectedfromimprovedwaterinfrastructure
    forpersonalandproductiveuses,forcingthemintoin-
    security.In2008,about480millionpeoplelackedac-
    cesstoimprovedwaterresources,while1.9billionhad
    noaccesstoimprovedsanitationfacilities(WHOand
    UNICEF,2010b).
    Thefutureisalsouncertain.Populationsize,rapidur-
    banization,industrializationandeconomicdevelop-
    mentareplacingpressureonfreshwaterresources.
    Waterresourcesarealsoincreasinglyvulnerableand
    threatenedbynaturaldisastersandpollution.The
    Asia-Pacicistheworldsmostvulnerableregionwith
    respecttonaturaldisasters.Pollutionfromindustries,
    agricultureandhouseholdsfurtherjeopardizefuture
    wateravailability.
    31.2Issues
    31.2.1MeetingormissingtheMDGtargetondrinking
    waterandsanitation
    Between1990and2008,signicantachieve-
    mentsweremadetowardsmeetingtheMillennium
    DevelopmentGoals(MDG)targetonaccesstosafe
    drinkingwater.Asia,andthePacicasawhole,isan
    earlyachieverforhalvingtheproportionofpeople
    withoutaccesstosafedrinkingwater,butnotsanita-
    tion(ESCAP,ADBandUNDP,2010).Between1990and
    2008,theproportionoftheregionspopulationwith
    TABLE 31.1
    MemberstatesoftheEconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacic(ESCAP)inthevesubregions
    Subregion ESCAP member states
    North-East Asia China, Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea, Japan,
    Mongolia, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation

    Central Asia and the Caucasus Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
    Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
    South-East Asia Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao Peoples
    Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore,
    Thailand, Timor-Leste, Viet Nam
    South and South-West Asia Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran (Islamic Republic of),
    Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan
    Subregion ESCAP member states
    Sri Lanka, Turkey
    Pacic American Samoa, Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia,
    Guam, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia (Federated States of),
    Nauru, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Northern Mariana
    Islands, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands,
    Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu
    Source: CARE (2009).
    CHAPTER31 REGIONALREPORTS 674
    accesstoimproveddrinkingwatersourcesincreased
    from73to88%,a1.2-billionpeopleincrease(including
    populationsizeincrease).Theaccessrateincreasedin
    allAsia-Pacicsubregions,exceptforCentralAsiaand
    thePacicregion,whereitstayedthesame.
    Comparedwithwatersupply,sanitationcoverageis
    inadirestate.Onlyaround53%oftheregionspopu-
    lationhasaccesstoimprovedsanitation.Accessto
    sanitationalsovariesconsiderablybetweensubre-
    gions.ThemostrapidprogresshasbeeninSouth-East
    Asiawheretheincreasewas22percentagepoints,
    andinNorth-EastAsiawhichbetween1990and2008
    increasedaccessby12percentagepoints.Thepro-
    gressinSouthandSouth-WestAsiawasevenweaker.
    Althoughthenumberofpeoplewithaccessdoubled
    since1990,by2008theaveragecoveragewasonly
    38%andthenumberofpeoplewithoutaccesswas
    higherthanitwasin2005.
    Poordrinkingwaterqualityandinadequatesanitation
    threatenhumanhealthandproductivity.According
    totheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO),88%ofdi-
    arrhoeaincidentsareattributedtopoorsanitation
    anddirtywater(WHOandUNICEF,2010a).InSouth
    andSouth-EastAsia,diarrhoeaisresponsibleforup
    to8.5%ofalldeaths,whichisthehighestrateinthe
    world,followedbyAfrica,whereitisresponsiblefor
    7.7%ofdeaths(WHO,2010c).Thesenumbersreveala
    grimreality,whichbecauseoflackofaccesstobasic
    infrastructureperpetuatespovertyandpoorhealth,
    andconcealstheregionsvasthiddenpotentialfor
    development.
    32.2.2Stretchedcarryingcapacity
    Water availability
    IntheESCAPregion,hightotalandinternalrenewable
    resourcesstandinsharpcontrastwiththepercapita
    availability,whichisthesecondlowestintheworldat
    5,224m
    2
    percapitaandfarbelowtheworldaverage
    of8,349m
    2
    percapitaaresultofthepopulationsize
    (Figure31.1).
    Physicalwaterscarcityisonlyonepartoftheequa-
    tion.Waterallocationisanothermatter.Theshareof
    domesticwaterwithdrawalovertotalwithdrawalin
    AsiaandthePacic,themostpopulatedregioninthe
    world,isthelowestat7.7%,comparedwithAfricaat
    10%.Agricultureistheprincipaluserofwater,claim-
    ingaround70%ofallwithdrawals.Theregionsmain
    staplefood,rice,requirestwoorthreetimesmore
    waterforcultivationthanothercereals.Inmanycoun-
    tries,agriculturalpracticesarecharacterizedbyfree-
    of-chargewaterabstraction,poorlymanagedirriga-
    tionschemes,outdatedanddamagedtechnological
    infrastructure,andproductionofwater-intensivecrops
    indryregions.Manyexamplesofover-abstractionof
    groundandsurfacewaterexist.Thethreatofdisap-
    pearanceoftheAralSea,mainlyfromintensiveirriga-
    tionupstream,demonstratesthateventhebiggest
    lakesoftheworldcanbeseriouslyafected(ESCAP,
    2008).
    Overallwateravailabilityfordevelopmentacross
    theregionisonasteepdecline.Somecountries,like
    UzbekistanandTajikistan,withdrawverycloseto,or
    evenmorethan,theirtotalsurfaceandgroundwater
    combined(116and99.6%ofthetotalrenewablewater
    respectively)(ESCAP,2009a).Althoughcriticalcondi-
    tionsoffreshwateravailabilityappearlocalizedina
    numberofcountries,analysingexistingdatafroma
    new,developmentanglerevealswidercriticaltrends.
    Water quality
    Theecologicalcarryingcapacityoftheregionisfurther
    afectedbythedeterioratingwaterqualityofwater
    bodies.Ofallwastewatergeneratedworldwide,andin
    theregion,only1520%receivessomeleveloftreat-
    mentbeforedischargeintowaterresources;there-
    mainderisdischargedwithitsfullloadofpollutionand
    toxiccompounds(UNEP,2002).
    Domesticsewerageisofconcern,asitafectseco-
    systemsclosetodenselypopulatedareas.Thetotal
    volumeofwastewaterproducedinurbanareasises-
    timatedat150250millionm
    2
    perday(UNEP,2002).
    Thiswastewateriseitherdischargeddirectlyintoopen
    waterbodiesorleachesintothesubsoil.Inaddition,
    mostindustriesintheregioncontinuetogeneratewa-
    terpollution,asenforcementofrelevantregulations
    lagsbehind.
    Evenrelativelywater-richcountries,suchasMalaysia,
    Indonesia,BhutanandPapuaNewGuinea,nowface
    watersupplyandqualityconstraintsintheirmajorcit-
    iesbecauseofpopulationgrowth,growingwatercon-
    sumption,environmentaldamage,harmfulagricultural
    activities,poormanagementofwatercatchmentareas,
    industrialization,andgroundwateroveruse.
    Countriesthatarerelativelylesswell-endowedwithwa-
    ter,inCentralAsiaandinSouthandSouth-WestAsia,
    WWDR4 675 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC
    Between2000and2009,anaverageof20,451people
    werekilledeachyearbywater-relateddisasters,ex-
    cludingtsunamidisasters,intheregion.Worldsannual
    averagewas23,651deathsforthesameperiod(Center
    forResearchontheEpidemidiologyofDisasters,2009).
    UnprecedentedoodsinPakistankilled1,974people,
    damaged1.65millionhouses,anddestroyed2.24million
    hectaresofcroplandin2010(ESCAP,2010b).
    Extremeweatherconditionsalsojeopardizegainsin
    accesstowaterandsanitation.Droughtsreducedrink-
    ingwateravailabilityandoodsandstormscandam-
    agebasicwaterinfrastructureandspreaddisease.
    31.3Emergingdrivers
    Asia-Pacicisanincrediblydynamicregion.Rapidur-
    banization,economicgrowth,industrialization,exten-
    siveandintensiveagriculturedevelopment,aswell
    asclimatechange,haveresultedinincreasingand
    exponentialdemandforwater.Emanatingfromthese
    trendsarethefollowingdriversshapingtheregions
    capacitytomeetitswaterneeds.
    31.3.1Economicandsocialdrivers
    Inequality in access to drinking water and sanitation
    Despiteimpressivegrowthingrossdomesticproduct
    (GDP)ratesandsubstantialimprovementsinaccess
    todrinkingwaterandsanitation,incomeandgender
    inequalitiespersist.Abasictypologyanalysisunder-
    takenbyESCAPshowedthatricher,urbanhouse-
    holdsareinabetterpositiontosecuresafewater
    areevenmoreseverelyafectedwhenwaterquality
    deteriorates.Countrieswiththeleastavailablewaterper
    personalsotendtohavepoorwaterquality.Kazakhstan,
    Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Georgia,Myanmar,the
    IslamicRepublicofIran,theMaldives,Nepal,Tajikistan,
    Azerbaijan,Turkmenistan,DemocraticPeoplesRepublic
    ofKorea,Bhutan,PapuaNewGuineaandMongoliaare
    countriesinwhichwaterqualitypressuresarestrong.
    31.2.3Naturaldisasters
    Asia-Pacicisadiverseregioncoveringalmostallof
    thediferenttypesofclimaticregions,fromtropical
    rainforesttomoretemperateareas;andfromland-
    locked,mountainregionsoftheHimalayastoisland
    statesinthePacicandIndianOceans.Precipitationin
    manycountriesintheregionisheavilyinuencedby
    themonsoonclimate.
    2
    Somesubregions,likeSouth-
    EastAsia,suferfrombothoodsanddroughtsatthe
    samelocation,butatdiferenttimesoftheyear.
    Naturalwater-relateddisasters,suchasoodsand
    droughtsundermineeconomicdevelopment.Coastal
    andood-proneareas,wheremucheconomicgrowth
    isgenerated,areoftenstruckbytyphoonsandrain-
    storms.Strikingandsustaininganoptimalbalancebe-
    tweenthedevelopmentalneedsofmanyAsiandevel-
    opingeconomies(especiallyinuencedbypopulation
    growth,foodandenergysecurityissues)andtherisks
    associatedwiththeuseofood-pronelandisachal-
    lenge,givenuncertaintiesconcerningthefuturestate
    ofthewaterregime.
    FIGURE 31.1
    Totalrenewablewaterpercapita(totalrenewable/population),globalregions(2007)
    Source: ESCAP (2009a, g. 28.4, p. 206).
    LatinAmericaandCaribbean
    NorthAmerica
    World
    Africa
    Europe
    ESCAP
    Asia-Pacic,Non-ESCAP
    0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
    CHAPTER31 REGIONALREPORTS 676
    supplyandadequatesanitation.Inequalitiesinaccess
    towaterbetweenrichandpoorhouseholdsareevi-
    dentalloverAsia,butforsanitation,thegapiseven
    bigger.Thelargestdiscrepanciesbetweenaccess
    ofrichandpoorpeopleareinurbanenvironments,
    particularlyinsmallercities(MEASUREDHS,2004
    2008;UNICEF,20042008).
    Sex-disaggregateddataonaccesstowaterandsanita-
    tionisnotavailableattheinternationallevel.However,
    theConventionontheEliminationofAllFormsof
    DiscriminationAgainstWomen(CEDAW)Committee
    hasunderlinedthatthehealthofruralwomenoften
    dependsonadequateandnon-discriminatoryaccess
    towater(UNWomen,2010).Provisionofsegregated
    toiletsinschoolsisanecessitytoincreaseschoolat-
    tendancebygirlsbecausegenderinequalitiesinac-
    cesstowaterandsanitationafectwomendispropor-
    tionally(Burrowsetal.,2004).
    Theunfullledpotentialofwomenhampersprogress.
    ESCAPresearchrevealsthatwomeninvestmore
    oftheirmoneyinthehealthoftheirfamily,includ-
    ingwaterandsanitation,thanmen.Theargument
    canalsobemadethatwomenvalueaccesstowa-
    termorethanmen.Innationalsurveysfromcoun-
    triesasdiverseasArmenia,India,Indonesia,Lao
    PeoplesDemocraticRepublic,Kazakhstan,Mongolia,
    TajikistanandVietNam,female-headedhouseholds
    consistentlyhadbetteraccesstoimprovedwaterand
    sanitationthanmale-headedhouseholds(Table31.2)
    (MEASUREDHS,20042008;UNICEF,20042008).
    However,inmale-dominatedenvironments,womens
    roleinhouseholddecisionsonwaterandsanitation
    remainsmarginal.
    Infrastructure development and investment
    Providingwaterandsanitationservicestoeveryone
    requiressizeablenancialresources.ForallofAsia
    andthePacic,itisestimatedthatUS$59billionis
    neededtomeetthetargetofaccesstodrinkingwater
    andatotalofUS$71billionisneededtoprovideac-
    cesstosanitationaccordingtotheMDGtarget(ESCAP,
    2010a).Ifinvestmentneedsforallwaterservicesare
    included,thetotalannualinvestmentcostforwater
    infrastructurecouldreachUS$180billion,including
    aboutUS$100billionforalldevelopingcountriesinthe
    region(ESCAP,2006b).Poorwaterqualityrequires
    vastinvestments,andincreasesinwatertreatmentand
    distributioncosts.
    ThecoordinateddrivetoachievetheMDGsbygovern-
    ments,civilsocietyanddonorshasboostedperfor-
    manceinrelatedindicatorsoverthepastfewyears.In
    responsetointernationalcallsforincreasednanc-
    ingforwater,theAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)
    launchedtheWaterFinancingProgram(WFP)to
    doubleinvestmentsinthesectorbetween2006and
    2010andestablishedtheWaterFinancingPartnership
    Facility(WFPF)tomobilizeco-nancingandin-
    vestmentsfromdevelopmentpartners,withsome
    US$65millionreachedasofDecember2008(Asian
    DevelopmentBank,2011).
    DatafromsevenSouth-EastAsiancountries
    (Cambodia,Indonesia,LaoPeoplesDemocratic
    Republic,thePhilippines,Thailand,Timor-Leste,Viet
    Nam),onecountryfromCentralAsia(Kazakhstan),
    onecountryfromNorth-EastAsia(Mongolia)and
    twocountriesfromSouthAsia(Bangladesh,Nepal)
    indicatedadiverselevelofinstitutionalengage-
    mentinwaterandsanitationplanning.Countrieslike
    Cambodia,LaoPeoplesDemocraticRepublic,Nepal
    andThailandhaveadequatepoliciesandinstitu-
    tions,whileCambodiaandLaoPeoplesDemocratic
    Republiclackhumanresourcesandnancialplan-
    ningforimplementation.
    3
    ThePhilippines,Cambodia,
    Timor-Leste,andVietNamalsolaggedbehindin
    nancialplanningandresources,withVietNamin-
    dicatingthebestfuturepotentialforscale-upof
    resourceallocationinmeetingwaterandsanitation
    goals(UN-Water,2010).
    However,evenifaccesstoadequatewaterandsanita-
    tionsystemsisestablished,itisimportanttoensure
    thatthebuiltsystemsarenanciallysustainable,func-
    tional,reliable,afordable,responsivetoneeds,socially
    acceptableforbothgenders,andappropriateforchil-
    drenandadults.Oftensanitationfacilitiesareincom-
    patiblewithwomensneeds,whilethesizeofbasic
    facilitiesisimproperandevendangerousforchildren.
    Wastewatertreatmentfacilitiesintheregionarealso
    generallylacking.Incities,manysmallwaterwaysare
    coveredtoallowmorespaceforroadsorcommercial
    areas,putintoconcretebeds,usedmostlytofacilitate
    stormrunoforsimplyusedasopensewers.
    Irrigationfacilitiesintheregionareoftenoldand
    inpoorcondition,partlybecauseofextremelylow
    waterpricesandpoormanagementofthefacilities.
    Manygovernmentshavesubsidizedtheconstruction
    ofinefcientirrigationsystems,alongwithfueland
    WWDR4 677 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC
    electricitysupplies.Thishasweakenedpricesignals,
    temptingfarmerstowithdrawtoomuchwaterfrom
    rivers,over-pumpgroundwaterandwastefreshwater
    resources(ESCAP,2008).
    Water for food
    Thechangingeconomic,demographicandclimatic
    backdropisexacerbatingdifcultconditionsforfood
    production.Producingeachcalorieoffoodrequires
    approximately1Lofwater.Toprovideeachconsum-
    erwith1,800caloriesperday,by2050Asiaandthe
    Pacicwouldneedanadditional2.4billionm
    2
    ofwater
    perday.Foodsecurityconcernsaggravatetheharm
    inictedonthosewholackbasicwateraccess,whether
    small-scaleorlarge-scaleproducers.
    31.3.2Policies,lawandnancingdrivers
    Water management capacity
    Countriesthatwithdrawwaterveryclosetotheir
    internalrenewablesourcesmayfacedifcultiesin
    supportingdevelopmenttrendsinthelong-term.
    Over-exploitationcanmodifywaterdistributionand
    causewatercrisesinpartsoftheregion.Manycoun-
    triesintheregionhavemoved,withvariouslevelsof
    TABLE 31.2
    Percentageofmaleandfemale-headedhouseholdswithaccesstosafedrinkingwater
    Country Year Male-headed (%) Female-headed (%)
    How much more women
    value access to water
    (% points)
    Armenia 2000 93.8 95.4 2
    2005 95.8 96.4 1
    Bangladesh 2007 97.0 97.6 1
    India 1999 80.4 78.8 -2
    2006 87.7 89.2 2
    Indonesia 1997 73.9 77.5 4
    2003 71.8 72.1 0
    Kazakhstan 1999 92.5 96.2 4
    2006 94.0 95.9 2
    Kyrgyzstan 2006 88.9 93.3 4
    Lao PDR 2005 58.6 70.4 12
    Mongolia 2005 65.3 76.3 11
    Nepal 1996 76.9 78.5 2
    2006 82.3 80.3 -2
    Philippines 1998 85.4 87.4 2
    2003 83.2 85.4 2
    Tajikistan 2000 56.1 65.8 10
    2005 70.0 78.3 8
    Thailand 2005 96.0 96.1 0
    Uzbekistan 2006 89.5 95.9 6
    Viet Nam 1997 71.5 78.6 7
    2000 76.1 83.1 7
    2002 77.1 84.4 7
    2006 87.7 92.2 4
    Source: ESCAP analysis based on Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) from the period
    19992008.
    CHAPTER31 REGIONALREPORTS 678
    on-the-ground-success,toadoptIntegratedWater
    ResourcesManagement(IWRM).Tables31.3and31.4
    providesomeexamplesofregionalandcountry-level
    initiatives.
    Water disputes and conicts
    Despiteincreasedawarenessandimplementationof
    IWRMprinciples,therapideconomicgrowthofthere-
    gionsdevelopingcountries,accompaniedbyhighin-
    tensityoftheuseofnaturalresources,especiallywater,
    hasledtoarapidincreaseinconictsoverwater.This
    posesathreattostabilityanddevelopment.
    Overthepasttwodecades,thenumberofreport-
    edwater-relatedincidentshasrisen.Conictswithin
    countriesaredominatingthepicture,particularlysince
    1990(Table31.5).InChinaalone,thenumberofdis-
    putesrelatedtowaterreachedover120,000during
    the1990s,accordingtoofcialsources.
    4
    InIndia,ef-
    fortsandresourcesinwatermanagementareoften
    focusedonconictmanagementbetweendiferent
    states.Allocationofincreasinglyscarcewaterresourc-
    eshasbecometheprincipalcauseforwaterconicts.
    Directconictsaremostlikelytooccuratthelocal
    leveloveranill-thoughtdam,ambiguouswithdrawal
    rightsordeteriorationofwaterquality.Againstthe
    contextofdevelopment,thebiggestchallengesare
    balancingthediferentusesofwaterandmanaging
    theireconomic,socialandenvironmentalimpacts.
    31.3.3Technologicaldrivers
    Advancesintechnologyarealsochangingtheland-
    scapeofoptionsfortheregiononwaterresources
    managementtomeetitsneedsforwatersupplyand
    wastewatertreatmentcoverageandsocio-economic
    development.
    TABLE 31.3
    RegionalIntegratedWaterResourcesManagement(IWRM)initiatives
    Region IWRM initiative
    Central Asia Aral Sea Basin: framework for subregional dialogue (October 2008)
    Aral Sea Basin: Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea
    (EC-IFAS)
    Global Water Partnership Central Asia and Caucasus (GWP CACENA): support for IWRM
    South and South-West Asia South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC): Disaster Management Center
    SAARC: Comprehensive Framework on Disaster Management
    Global Water Partnership (GWP) South Asia: support for IWRM
    South Asia Water Forum (SAWAF): directions for transboundary water management
    National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) in all countries
    Political commitment for sanitation (SACOSAN)
    Water Utility Network South Asia (SAWUN)
    South-East Asia Mekong River Commission establishment (1995)
    Mekong River Commission: IWRM-based Basin Development Strategy
    ASEAN: Working Group on Water Resources Management and IWRM
    GWP-SEA: support for IWRM
    Pacic Islands Pacic Wastewater Policy Statement
    Pacic Wastewater Framework for Action (2001)
    Pacic Regional Action Plan on Sustainable Water Management (2002)
    Drinking Water Quality and Health Framework for Action (2005)
    Pacic Islands Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC)
    Source: Jin Lee, Ti LeHuu and Salmah Zakaria, Energy Security and Water Resources Section, Environment and Development Division, ESCAP,
    Status of IWRM Implementation in the Asia-Pacic Region (unpublished report), December 2009, in cooperation with Torkil Clausen, GWP.
    WWDR4 679 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC
    Technologyforcompact,smallwastewatertreatment
    plants(orunits)hasimprovedsignicantlyandthe
    requirementforspacehasbeenreduced,allowing
    introductionoftheseunitsevenincrowdedurban
    areas.
    Modular structures for water supply and wastewater
    Theadventofefcientmodulardesignofwatertreat-
    mentusingrecentadvancesintechnologies,such
    asmembranetechnology,allowsefectivedecen-
    tralizedwatersupplyandwastewatermanagement.
    TABLE 31.4
    Country-specicIntegratedWaterResourcesManagement(IWRM)initiatives
    Country IWRM initiative
    Armenia New Water Code with IWRM principles
    Bangladesh IWRM and Water Efciency Plan, water codes
    Cambodia Law on Water Resources Management (2007)
    National Water Resources Strategy (2004)
    China District management guided by IWRM
    GWP and provincial GWP partnerships supporting IWRM
    Water Law integrating river basin management
    Indonesia Government Regulation on Groundwater (2008)
    Government Regulation on Water Supply System Development (2006)
    National Water Resources Council (2008)
    Revision of Government Regulation on Irrigation (2006)
    Revision of Government Regulation on Water Resources Management (2008)
    Japan Revised Basic Environment Plan (2000)
    Water management includes environmental sustainability
    Kazakhstan New Water Code with IWRM principles
    Kyrgyzstan New Water Code with IWRM principles
    Lao PDR Water Resources and Environment Administration
    Malaysia National Water Services Commission (2007)
    Water Services Industry Act (2006)
    Mongolia Water Authority supports IWRM through river basin councils
    Myanmar

    Conservation of Water Resources and Rivers Law (2006)
    National Commission for Environmental Afairs (2008): efuent standards for factories
    Nepal IWRM and Water Efciency Plan, water codes
    Pakistan IWRM and Water Efciency Plan, water codes
    Philippines Water Resources Commission to act as economic regulatory body
    Republic of Korea Comprehensive River Basin Plan revitalizes 12 rivers
    Sri Lanka IWRM and Water Efciency Plan, water codes
    Tajikistan New Water Code with IWRM principles
    Viet Nam River basin management by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2007)
    Water sector reform (20062008) separates water resources from water use management
    Source: Jin Lee, Ti LeHuu and Salmah Zakaria, Energy Security and Water Resources Section, Environment and Development Division, ESCAP,
    Status of IWRM Implementation in the Asia-Pacic Region (unpublished report), December 2009, in cooperation with Torkil Clausen, GWP.
    CHAPTER31 REGIONALREPORTS 680
    TABLE 31.5
    ChronologyofmajorrecentwaterconictsinAsia,20002008
    Date Countries involved Description of conicts or potential conicts
    2000 Central Asia:
    Kyrgyzstan,
    Kazakhstan,
    Uzbekistan
    Kyrgyzstan cuts of water to Kazakhstan until coal was delivered. Uzbekistan
    cuts of water to Kazakhstan for nonpayment of debt. (Pannier, 2000)
    2000 Afghanistan: Hazarajat Violent conicts broke out over water resources in the villages of Burna Legan
    and Taina Legan, and in other parts of the region, as drought depleted local
    resources. (Cooperation Center for Afghanistan, 2000)
    2000 India: Gujarat Water riots were reported in some areas of Gujarat to protest against failure
    of the authority to arrange adequate supply of tanker water. Police shot into a
    crowd at the village of Falla near Jamnagar, killing three people and injuring 20
    others following protests against the diversion of water from Kankavati Dam to
    the town of Jamnagar. (FTGWR, 2000)
    2001 China In protest to the destruction of sheries from uncontrolled water pollution,
    shermen in northern Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province, dammed for 23 days
    the canal that carries 90 million tonnes of industrial wastewater per year. The
    wastewater discharge into neighbouring Shengze, Jiangsu Province, killed sh
    and threatened peoples health. (China Ministry of Water Resources, 2001)
    2002 India: Kashmir Two people were killed and 25 others injured in Kashmir when police red at a
    group of villagers in Garend in a dispute over sharing water from an irrigation
    stream. (The Japan Times, 2002)
    2002 India: Karnataka, Tamil Nadu Continued violence over the allocation of Cauvery River between Karnataka
    and Tamil Nadu. Riots, property destruction, more than 30 injuries, and arrests
    occurred through September and October. (The Hindu 2002a,b, The Times of
    India 2002a)
    2004 China Tens of thousands of farmers staged a sit-in against the construction of
    Pubugou Dam on Dadu River in Sichuan Province. Riot police were deployed
    to quell the unrest and one person was killed. Some residents were killed. (See
    China 2006 for follow-up) (BBC, 2004b; VOA, 2004)
    2007 India Thousands of farmers breached security and stormed the area of Hirakud
    Dam to protest allocation of water to industry. Minor injuries resulted from the
    conict between the farmers and police. (News Service, 2007)
    Source: Gleick (2008).
    Water-sensitive urban design
    Water-sensitiveurbandesignisthecumulativeprocess
    ofdesigningurbanenvironmentstoaccommodatehu-
    manandenvironmentalneedsforwater,whilerespect-
    ingandsupportingthenaturalwatercycle.Thedesign
    incorporatesthebasicwatersupplyaccessandsecuri-
    ty;publichealthprotection(e.g.throughsewers);ood
    protectionthroughdrainagesystems;environmental
    protectionbyrehabilitatingwaterways;protectionof
    naturalresourcesthroughthewatercycle,payingspe-
    cicattentiontointergenerationalequityandresil-
    iencetoclimatechange(Brownetal.,2008).
    Storm water management
    Extremesofoodsanddroughtsareexpectedto
    increaseinmagnitudeandfrequencyasaresultof
    climatechange.Naturalwaterbodiescanturninto
    watersupplysourcesduringdroughts,ifrehabilitated.
    Integratedstormwatermanagement(ISWM),already
    implementedinthemoredevelopedcountriesofthe
    region,canproveinvaluableduringoods,asclean
    waterbodiesminimizespreadingofpollutedwater
    anddisease.
    Rainwater harvesting
    WWDR4 681 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC
    Duetoadvancesinrainwaterharvestingtechnol-
    ogy,integratedrainwaterharvestingisincreasingly
    viewedasanintegralpartofwatercyclemanage-
    ment.Rainwatercanbecapturedatthecitylevel.In
    Singaporelittlerainwateriswasted.Rainwateriscol-
    lectedwhereveritcan-instreetsandponds,even
    ontallbuildingsandbridges-beforebeingtaken
    bydrainstoreservoirs,andthentotreatmentplants
    whereitiscleanedtodrinkingwaterstandards.The
    catchmentareaisbeingincreasedbythecreationof
    apairofreservoirs.Therstofthesereservoirs,will
    expandtherainfall-catchmentacreagetotwo-thirdsof
    theislandstotallandarea(The Economist,2010).
    Domesticrainwaterharvestingsystemsarealsosim-
    pletoinstallandoperate.Theirdecentralizednature
    allowsownerstobenetfromdirectmanagement
    ofdemandandsupply.Withsupporttechnologies
    (modernandindigenous),rainwaterharvestingis
    cost-efective,andcanreleasecapitalintimesofdis-
    aster.(StockholmEnvironmentInstituteandUNEP,
    2009).
    31.4Principalrisksanduncertainties
    31.4.1Climatechange
    HydrologicalextremeshaveincreasedintheAsia-
    Pacicaswellasaroundtheglobe.Countriesinthere-
    gionareexpectedtobeseverelyafectedbyincreased
    climatevariability.Forexample,intheMekongRiver,
    themaximumowisprojectedtoincreaseby3542%
    inthebasinandby1619%inthedelta.Incontrastthe
    minimumowisestimatedtodeclineby1724%inthe
    basinandby2629%inthedelta,suggestingpossible
    watershortagesinthedryseason.Heavilypopulated
    megadeltasinSouth-West,EastandSouth-EastAsia
    areexpectedtobeatgreatestriskofincreasedriver
    andcoastaloods.Theinteractionofclimatechange
    impactswithrapiddevelopmentisexpectedtoafect
    growth,includingMDGgains(IPCC,2007).
    Inadditiontooodsanddroughts,saltwaterintrusion
    inestuariesisexpectedtomovefurtherinwards.Snow
    meltandglaciers,aswellasrisingsnowlines,couldalso
    beunfavourablefordownstreamagricultureinSouthand
    CentralAsia.North-westernChinaisprojectedtoexpe-
    riencea27%declineinglacierareas.Changesinrunof
    couldimpactpoweroutputfromhydropowergenerating
    countriessuchasTajikistanandincreasedemandforagri-
    culturewaterinaridandsemi-aridregionsofAsia.
    31.4.2Hotspots
    Themanythreatstowaterresourcespaintacomplex
    picture.Tobetterfocusandprioritizeregionalaction,
    ESCAPhasidentiedhotspotsofmultiplechalleng-
    es.Hotspotsarecountries,areasorecosystemswith
    overlappingchallengesofpooraccesstowaterand
    sanitation,deterioratingwaterquality,limitedwater
    availabilityandincreasedexposuretoclimatechange
    andwater-relateddisasters.Allorsomeofthesechal-
    lengesmaybeofconcern(Table31.6).
    AsshowninFigure31.2,countriesinSouth-EastAsia
    areatacrossroadsofdevelopment.Highgrowth
    ratesprovidenancingforbetterwaterresources
    management,butdevelopmentprioritiesignorethe
    risksfromdisaster,climatechangeandpoorhouse-
    holdwaterandsanitationaccess.Uzbekistanand
    Indiaarealsofacingexceptionalcircumstancesbe-
    causeoflittlepreparednessfornaturaldisastersand
    climatechange(India),andunsustainablepatterof
    wateruse(Uzbekistan).Basicaccesstosanitationre-
    mainsadeterminingconcernforBangladesh.
    31.5Achievementsthroughpolicy-making
    Afterdecadesofhigheconomicgrowth,theregionis
    nowfacingsevereenvironmentalrisks.Waterinsecu-
    rityisonemanifestationoftheunfoldingenvironmen-
    taldamage.Informedpolicy-makingistheonlytoolto
    enhanceresiliencewhilesustaininggrowth.
    31.5.1Policyoptions
    Pricing in costs to the environment
    TheAsia-Pacicdevelopmentpatternhasreliedpri-
    marilyoncheapnaturalandhumanresources.This,
    however,hascreatedeconomiesthatrunintwo
    speeds:oneofrapidadvancesineconomicperfor-
    mance,andanotherofpersistingpovertyandenvi-
    ronmentaldegradation.Topromotemorebalanced
    growth,pricesofproductionfactorsneedtoreectthe
    realcost,includingcoststotheenvironmentandeco-
    systemservices.Thisshifthasimportantimplications
    forwaterresourcesmanagement,includingexpanding
    timehorizonsofinvestmentassessmenttomoreade-
    quatelyincorporatebenetsofaccesstowater,sanita-
    tion,andwastewatertreatment;andfactoringenviron-
    mentalcostsintowaterandsanitationservicecharges.
    PaymentsforEcosystemServices(PES)isonewayof
    determiningthevalueandpayingapricefortheseser-
    vices(Box31.1).
    Eco-efcient water infrastructure development
    CHAPTER31 REGIONALREPORTS 682
    Tosupportthisprocess,ESCAPhasdevelopedeco-
    efciencywaterinfrastructureguidelinesandcom-
    pletedcapacity-buildinginitiativesinseveraldevelop-
    ingcountries,includingsupporttothedevelopmentof
    guidelinesforEco-efciencyinWaterInfrastructurefor
    BuildingsinMalaysia,recommendedtobeimplement-
    edinallpublicsectorbuildings;theimplementationof
    apilotprojectonanISWMsysteminthePhilippines;
    andariverrehabilitationprogrammeforatributaryof
    theBrantasRiverinIndonesia.
    Sustainable consumption and production
    Waterresourcesmanagementisshiftingfromsupply-
    sidetodemand-sidemanagementandthisisincreas-
    inglyrecognizedintheregion.Non-revenuewater
    averages30%ofproductioninAsiancities,butranges
    from4to65%(McIntosh,2003).Approximatelyhalf
    ofthislossisfromleakingdistributionnetworks.There
    aremanyexamplesofimplementationofdemand-side
    managementmeasuresacrosstheregionandinterest
    Eco-efcientwaterinfrastructureaimstoharmonize
    waterinfrastructurewithintheenvironmentandcan
    beenvisagedinurbanandruralcontexts.Eco-efcient
    urbansolutionsincluderiverrehabilitation,stormwa-
    termanagement,decentralizedwastewatertreatment,
    andwaterre-useandrecyclingwhileruraloptionsin-
    cludemodernirrigationpractices,decentralizedwater
    andsanitationsystems,waterreuseandre-cycling,as
    wellasrainwaterharvesting.
    ManycountriessuchasCambodia,China,Malaysia,and
    theRepublicofKoreahavealreadybeenpursuingeco-
    efcientwaterinfrastructuredevelopment.Although
    specicexamplesoflarge-scaleeco-efcientwaterin-
    frastructurearedifculttond,somegovernmentsare
    alreadydiscussingandintegratingthesetermsintheir
    nationalplanning.Indonesiaintegratedtheeco-ef-
    ciencyconceptintoitsve-yearNationalDevelopment
    Planfor20102014,andthePhilippinesadoptedthe
    eco-efciencydimensionsintoitsMid-TermNational
    DevelopmentPlan.
    TABLE 31.6
    Basicframeworkfordeningwaterhotspots
    Challenge Measures available* Countries at risk
    Water
    availability
    Water utilization level (Threat* 1)
    Index of Water Available for
    Development (IWAD**) (Threat 2)
    Water quality (Threats 3 and 4)
    Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bhutan, Democratic Peoples Republic of
    Korea, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Malaysia,
    Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea,
    Philippines, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
    Vulnerability
    and risk
    Frequency of oods (Threat 5)
    Frequency of cyclones (Threat 6)
    Frequency of droughts (Threat 7)
    Climate change pattern (Threat 8)
    Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, DPRK, India, Indonesia,
    Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Malaysia,
    Maldives, Nepal, Pacic Islands, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea,
    Philippines, Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste,
    Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Viet Nam
    Household
    water
    adequacy
    Access to water (Threat 9)
    Access to sanitation (Threat 10)
    Disability adjusted life-years (DALY)
    from diarrhoea
    Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia,
    Lao PDR, Mongolia, Nepal, Pacic Islands, Papua New Guinea,
    Timor-Leste
    Human
    development
    Life expectancy at birth
    Inequalities in access
    People living in poverty
    Cambodia, Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Lao
    PDR, Myanmar, Pacic Islands, Papua New Guinea, Philippines
    *. The Threat numbers refer to columns in Figure 31.2 and measures that were actually used to estimate water hotspots.
    **. The Index of Water Available for Development (IWAD) examines the current trends of rapidly increasing water withdrawal in relation to the
    limited amount of renewable freshwater resources.
    . Challenges exist in two of the indicated measures. IWAD is dened as an index measuring the balance between the total internal renewable
    water resources and total water withdrawals in a particular year against the base line of 1980 of this balance.
    . Challenges exist in more than two of the indicated measures.
    Note: Data not used for hotspot identication.
    Sources: Compiled from Dilley et al. (2005); ESCAP (2009a).
    WWDR4 683 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC
    inimprovingwateruseefciencyisgrowing.Bangkok
    andManilaleakdetectionprogrammeshavelowered
    estimatedUncounted-for-Water(UFW),thuspostpon-
    ingthedevelopmentofnewinfrastructure(Molleet
    al.,2009).Since2008SydneyWaterinAustraliahas
    providedhomesintheHoxtonParkareawithtwowa-
    tersupplies:recycledwateranddrinkingwater(dual
    reticulation)(SydneyWater,2011).
    Singaporehasreducedurbandomesticwaterdemand
    from176Lperpersonadayin1994to157Lin2007
    throughthecomprehensivepolicy,basedonthree
    principles:voluntary,pricingandmandatory(Kiang,
    2008).Toapplytheseprinciples,severalactionswere
    taken:watertarifsandwaterconservationtaxwere
    restructured,maximumallowableowrateswere
    set,publiceducationandawarenesscampaignswere
    launched,andwaterauditstolargecustomerswere
    implementedasapartofthemarket-orientedpro-
    grammetoobtainindustryfeedback.Asaresult,
    SingaporenowhasoneofthelowestUFWratesinthe
    world(below5%)(Kiang,2008).
    InHamirpurdistrictofIndia,theDepartmentofRural
    DevelopmentandtheDepartmentofAgriculture
    haveembarkedonaprogrammeofSoilandWater
    Conservationtoreducerunof,createhighefcien-
    cylife-savingirrigationandpromotegroundwater
    FIGURE 31.2
    Asia-Pacicwaterhotspots
    Compoundhotspotin6categories
    Compoundhotspotin5categories
    Compoundhotspotin3or4categories
    Compoundhotspotin1or2categories
    Nodataornotahotspot
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total
    Cambodia x x x x x x 6
    Indonesia x x x x x x 6
    Lao PDR x x x x x x 6
    Papua New Guinea x x x x x x 6
    Philippines x x x x x x 6
    India x x x x x 5
    Myanmar x x x x x 5
    Thailand x x x x x 5
    Uzbekistan x x x x x 5
    Bangladesh x x x x 4
    China x x x x 4
    Malaysia x x x x 4
    Pakistan x x x x 4
    Timor-Leste x x x x 4
    Viet Nam x x x x 4
    Afghanistan x x x 3
    Kazakhstan x x x 3
    Maldives x x x 3
    Mongolia x x x 3
    Nepal x x x 3
    Pacic Islands x x x 3
    DPRK x x 2
    Kyrgyzstan x x 2
    Tajikistan x x 2
    Turkmenistan x x 2
    Australia x 1
    Azerbaijan x 1
    Bhutan x 1
    Georgia x 1
    Iran x 1
    Republic of Korea x 1
    Sri Lanka x 1
    Prevalence
    (countries afected)
    6 2 5 14 15 13 17 19 4 12
    1 Increasing water scarcity threat
    2 High water utilization
    3 Deteriorating water quality
    4 Poor water quality and low water endowment
    5 Flood-prone countries
    6 Cyclone-prone countries
    7 Drought-prone countries
    8 Elevated ecosystem/Climate change risk
    9 Poor access to drinking water
    10 Poor access to sanitation
    Compoundhotspots
    Legend
    Sources: Compiled from Dilley et al. (2005); ESCAP (2009a); FAO (2010) (AQUASTAT).
    CHAPTER31 REGIONALREPORTS 684
    recharge.ThegoaloftheHimachalPradeshMid-
    HimalayanWatershedDevelopmentProjectisto
    combineprotectionofnaturalresourceswithrural
    householdincomeincrease.Theprojectalsointendsto
    harmonizewatersheddevelopmentprojectsandpoli-
    ciesacrossthestateinaccordancewithbestpractices
    (AsianDevelopmentBank,2010b).
    31.5.2Countryresponses
    Integrated planning approach
    Waterresourcesmanagementtraditionallyhasbeen
    compartmentalizedingovernmentpolicy-making,with
    diferentwaterusersagriculture,industry,domestic
    watersupplyandsanitation,environmentfallingin
    thejurisdictionofdiferentlineministriesandinstitu-
    tions.Overthepastfewdecades,themomentumhas
    pickedupacrosstheregionforintroducingandimple-
    mentingIWRMpolicies.
    Anindicativeprolereportonthecurrentstatusof
    IWRMimplementationintheregionwaspresented
    atthe5thWorldWaterForumheldinMarch2009.A
    proposedframeworktofacilitateIWRMimplementa-
    tionandmonitoringatthecountrylevelhasalsobeen
    developed(Lee,2009).
    Therearemanycountry-specicexamplesthatshow-
    casetheimportanceofIWRM.Toaddresstheprob-
    lemofpoormanagementofwaterresourcesand
    highwithdrawalforagriculturalneeds,Kazakhstan
    launchedawaterresourcesmanagementprojectin
    2008aimingtostrengthenwatermanagementorgani-
    zationandinstitutethepracticeofIWRM.Stakeholders
    forumswithexpertsandthepublictookplacetodraw
    feedbackfrommajorwaterusersandproviders.Asa
    result,RiverBasinCouncilswereestablishedinallthe
    eightriverbasinsofthecountrytoimplementnational
    waterpolicy(GWP,2010).
    Decentralization and inclusiveness
    Decentralizationoftheplanninganddecision-making
    processforwaterresourcesmanagement,together
    withenhancementofpublicparticipationisessential
    forintroducingsustainablesolutions.
    Inclusivenessindecision-makingisalsoaprerequi-
    siteforbuy-inonwater-relatedpolicyandinvestment
    decision-making.Forexample,inthestateofVictoria,
    Australia,theDepartmentofSustainabilityand
    Environmentinpartnershipwithruralandurbanwater
    corporations,catchmentmanagementauthorities,key
    regionalstakeholders,interestgroupsandcommuni-
    tieshasdevelopedlong-termsustainablewaterstrat-
    egiesintheOurWaterOurFutureactionplan.Every
    strategyaimstosecurewaterforlocalgrowth,aswell
    asregulatewatersystemsandprotectriversandother
    watersources;thereforeineachcase,water-related
    risksareevaluatedandanalysed,andappropriate
    BOX 31.1
    PaymentsforEcosystemServices(PES)inAsiaand
    thePacic
    Innovativepoliciestosupportpaymentforecosystem
    serviceshavebeenestablished,orareunderconsidera-
    tion,insomecountriesintheregion,includingVietNam,
    Indonesia,thePhilippinesandSriLanka.
    Anexampleofaninnovativepolicytosupportpayment
    forecosystemservicesistheecosystemservicefeecol-
    lectedfromwaterusersbythedistrictwaterutilityonthe
    islandofLombok,Indonesia,asprescribedbylocalgov-
    ernmentregulations.Awaterutilityinthewatercatch-
    mentinwhichtheprovincialcapitalofAcehislocated
    hasagreedtopaytwolocalcommunitiesforsecuringthe
    watershed.Thefeeispaidtotargetedcommunitiesthat
    canimpactwaterqualityandsupplyandwhothenhave
    acontractualobligationtosustainablymanagetheirland.
    FivemillionRpwillbepaideveryyear,forthreeyears
    andwillbemanagedbyacommunityforum.Theagree-
    mentwillbeexpandedifbothsidesfulltheircommit-
    mentsandimprovementsinwaterqualityandquantity
    areachieved.Theresultisthatwaterusersenjoycleaner
    waterandmoresustainablesupply.Thepaymentforeco-
    systemservicesmechanismwasseenasawaytoaddress
    escalatingconictsoverwateruse.
    ESCAPandtheWorldWideFund(WWF)havebeen
    supportingactionbyBAPEDAL(BadanPengendalian
    DampakLingkungan[EnvironmentalImpactManagement
    Agency]),AcehtoleadaPaymentsforEcosystem
    ServicesprojectinAceh,IndonesiaforNatureAcehpro-
    grammeandotherpartners.Underthisproject,aPESar-
    rangementhasbeenagreedtointheKruengAcehwater-
    shedareaandisbeingimplemented.Acommunityforum
    (FORSAKA)hasbeenestablishedtodevelopandimple-
    mentanagreementbetweenthewaterutilityandthree
    communities,underwhichthewaterutilitywillpayfor
    enhancedprotectionagainstillegallogging.Sustainable
    managementarrangementswillfollowinsubsequent
    phasesoftheproject,astrustisbuiltandimplementation
    arrangementsarerened.ApilotprojectintheKrueng
    Peusanganwatershedareaisalsobeingdevelopedby
    WWF(ESCAP,2009b).
    WWDR4 685 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC
    actionistaken(GovernmentofAustralia,Department
    ofSustainabilityandEnvironment,2010).
    31.6Sectoralprioritiesandregional
    initiatives
    Theidenticationofhotspotsrevealedthatcertain
    water-relatedchallengesarecommoninAsia-Pacic
    countries.Amongthemostprominentchallengesare
    stagnantaccesstosanitationandsometimesdrinking
    water,deterioratingwaterquality,andclimate-related
    risks.Thesesectoralprioritiesrequiretargeted,urgent
    actiontounblockthedevelopmentaldeadlockthat
    manycountriesndthemselvesin,duetopoorwater
    resourcesmanagement.
    31.6.1Householdwatersecurity
    MeetingtheMDGtargetsremainsapriorityforthere-
    gion,butthebenetsofaccesstowaterandsanitation
    expandbeyondthebasicneedforlife.Adequatewater
    andsanitationarelinkedtovariousdesirabledevel-
    opmentaloutcomes,suchashealthyecosystemsand
    productivelivelihoodsandalsolinkedtoGDPgrowth
    throughincreaseintourism,foreigndirectinvestment,
    labourproductivityandagriculturaloutputs.Astudy
    offourSouth-EastAsiancountriesestimatedtheto-
    taleconomicbenetsofachievinguniversalaccessto
    sanitationatbetweenUS$5.4billionandUS$27billion
    (Huttonetal.,2008).Thenarrowdenitionofaccessto
    drinkingwaterandsanitationfacilitiesisthusexpanded
    toaccommodateabroaderconceptofhouseholdwater
    securitylinkedtosocio-economicdevelopment.
    Bettermonitoringandassessmentofachievements
    isrequiredtoinformpolicy-making.Thequestionre-
    mainswhetherrecentprogress,particularlywithre-
    specttowatertargets,representsaone-timeeventor
    arealtake-offortheAsia-Pacic.
    Toimprovewaterandsanitationservicesinthesecond
    largestcityinthecountry,Chittagong,theGovernment
    ofBangladeshrecentlyinitiatedtheChittagong
    WaterSupplyImprovementandSanitationProject
    withthesupportfromtheInternationalDevelopment
    Association.Theprojectsupportsinstitutionalde-
    velopmentbyenhancingtheservicesprovidedby
    ChittagongWaterSupplyandSewerageAuthorityand
    willfocusonformulatingasewerageanddrainage
    masterplanforChittagong.Theprojecttargetsthe
    poor,particularlythoseinurbanslums,wherepiped
    distributionnetworksarenotavailable(WaterWorld,
    2010).
    CambodiasPhnomPenhWaterSupplyAuthority
    (PPWSA)isunliketypicalwaterutilitiesinAsia.Ithas
    anefcientserviceandanincreasingconsumerbase.
    Withtheassistanceofexternalfundingagencies,partic-
    ularlytheAsianDevelopmentBank,andthroughinter-
    nalreforms,PPWSAtransformeditselfintoanefcient,
    self-nanced,autonomousorganizationinacitystillre-
    coveringfrommanyyearsofwarandcivilstrife.Today,
    PPWSAisamodelpublicsectorwaterutilitythatpro-
    videsdrinkingwatertoPhnomPenh24hoursaday.The
    mainfactorsbehindtheAuthorityssuccessarestream-
    liningtheorganizationsworkforce;improvingcollection
    levels(e.g.installingmetersforallconnections,comput-
    erizingthebillingsystem,updatingtheconsumerbase,
    andconfrontinghigh-rankingnonpayersandcutting
    oftheirwateriftheyrefusetopay);rehabilitatingthe
    wholedistributionnetworkandthetreatmentplants;
    minimizingillegalconnectionsandunaccounted-for
    water(e.g.settingupinspectionteamstostopillegal
    connections,penalizingthosewithillegalconnections,
    andgivingthepublicincentivestoreportillegalcon-
    nections);andincreasingwatertarifstocovermainte-
    nanceandoperatingcostsbyproposingathree-step
    increaseintarifsoversevenyears,althoughthethird
    stepwasultimatelynotrequiredbecauserevenuesbe-
    gantocovercosts(AsianDevelopmentBank,2007).
    Sanitationisalsoincreasinglyunderstoodasexpand-
    ingbeyondtoilets.Thereisaneedforbehavioural
    changeandforinstitutionalreformstoaddresssani-
    tationinitsbroaderinterpretation,whichincludes
    hygienicdisposalofhumanexcretaandgreywater
    management.ThemomentumoftheInternational
    YearforSanitation(2008),forexample,urgedregional
    leaderstoassertthatsanitationimprovesnotjusthu-
    manhealth(accesstotoilets),butalsoenvironmental
    health,asdomesticwastewaterisamajorcontributor
    ofbacterialcontaminationtogroundwatersupplies
    andriversacrosstheregion(AsianDevelopmentBank,
    2010c).
    DhakaWaterSupplyandSewerageAuthorityhasbeen
    implementingtheDhakaWaterSupplyandSanitation
    ProjectforBangladeshthroughrehabilitatingand
    strengtheningseweragesystemsandstormwater
    drainage,aswellasimplementingenvironmentaland
    socialsafeguards.Ithasbeenalsoplannedtoprovide
    localcommunitieswithservicesafterstrengtheningin-
    stitutionalcapacityandextendingmainstreamservices
    (WorldBank,2011a).
    CHAPTER31 REGIONALREPORTS 686
    Governmentsandinternationalorganizationsneedto
    worktogethertogeneratedemandandultimatelywill-
    ingnesstopayfortheseservices.Forthepoorest,gov-
    ernmentsneedtostepinandsubsidizeatransitionto
    sustainable,adequate,eco-efcientinfrastructure.
    Anexampleofpotentialdemandgenerationinitia-
    tivecanbefoundinCambodia.TheMinistryofRural
    DevelopmentandtheGovernmentofCambodiahave
    acknowledgedthatthemarketcanplayanimportant
    roleinsanitationimprovements.InthenewSanitation
    MarketingProject(launchedin2009),marketforces
    anddemandcreationactivitieshavebeenwidelyused
    toinstall10,000toiletsinruralvillagehouseholds.
    Unlikepreviousprojects,thefocusisonchangingbe-
    haviourwithincommunitiestocreatedemandforsani-
    tationfacilities.Aspartofthemarket-basedsolutions,
    anafordableandsimplelatrinecorewasdesigned
    andbrandedasEasyLatrine,andintroducedtothe
    marketthroughlocalproducers.Theinnovativepour-
    ushlatrinesellsforaslowasUS$25,andproducers
    arereceivingtraininginsanitationandhygieneeduca-
    tion,latrineproduction,andbasicbusinessandsales
    management(WaterandSanitationProgram,2011).
    Anadditionalexampleofmarketcreationforwater
    andsanitationactivitiesistheWaterSHEDprogramme
    (Box31.2).
    31.6.2Greengrowthandwastewaterrevolutioninthe
    Asia-Pacic
    Waterqualityintheregionisatacriticalstageasmore
    wastewateriscontinuouslybeingreleasedintothenat-
    uralenvironment.Thewastewaterrevolutioninitiative,
    whichwasbegunandpromotedbytheUNSecretary-
    GeneralsAdvisoryBoardonWaterandSanitations
    (UNSGAB)withthelaunchingofHashimotoAction
    PlanII(HAPII)inlateJanuary2010looksattherapidly
    deterioratingwaterenvironmentintheAsia-Pacic
    andtheneedtorevolutionizethewaywastewateris
    beinghandledandtreated.
    Recognizingthecriticalstageofwaterpollutionchal-
    lenges,ESCAPconvenedtheRegionalDialogueon
    WastewaterManagementinKualaLumpur,heldon
    1516June2010,withinthecontextofeco-efcient
    waterinfrastructuredevelopmentoftheGreenGrowth
    approachintheregion.TheRegionalDialoguere-
    viewedregionalexperiencesandissuesrelatedto
    wastewatermanagementandvariousinitiativesand
    recentdevelopments,includingdecentralizationef-
    fortsandadvancesintechnologies.
    InMalaysia,theGovernmenthasintroducednew
    wastewaterregulations.Takingintoaccountshortcom-
    ingsinthe1979Regulations,acomprehensivereview
    wasinitiatedandculminatedintheenforcementof
    threenewsetsofregulationson10December2009:
    EnvironmentalQuality(IndustrialEfuents,Sewage,
    ControlofPollutionfromSolidWasteTransferStation
    andLandll)Regulations2009(Lee,2010).
    TheNationalGangaRiverBasinAuthorityinIndia,with
    thenancialsupportoftheWorldBank,launcheda
    programmein2009tocleantheGanges,toensure
    thatnountreatedmunicipalsewageorindustrialef-
    uentswouldbedischargedintotheriverby2020.
    Previousactionplansdidnotimprovethehealthofthe
    river,inwhichalmost95%ofthepollutioniscausedby
    sewersandopendrains(WorldBank,2011b).Thistime
    thegovernmentalapproachhasmovedfromatown-
    centricapproachtoabroaderriverbasinapproach,
    focussingonstrengtheningthenewlyformedNational
    GangaRiverBasinAuthority,andnancingtheesti-
    matedUS$4billionneededtostopalldischargeofun-
    treatedsewageandefuentintotheGangesby2020
    (WorldBank,2009).
    Finally,theRegionalDialoguerecommendedsupport
    fortheWastewaterRevolutioninAsiaofUNSGAB,
    tobeimplementedincollaborationwiththeGreen
    GrowthinitiativeofESCAP.Theregionalinitiative
    wassubsequentlypresentedattheSixthMinisterial
    ConferenceonEnvironmentandDevelopment
    (MCED-6)in2010,andincludedtheRegional
    ImplementationPlanoftheMCED-6aspartofthe
    AstanaGreenBridgeInitiativeofKazakhstan.
    31.6.3Adaptingtoclimatechange
    TheAsia-Pacicregionishometotwo-thirdsofthe
    worldspoor,andasthepooraregenerallytheleast
    resilienttoandleastpreparedforclimatechangeim-
    pacts,theregionfaceschallengesinachievingits
    MDGtargets,aswellasthepotentialforsomeerosion
    ofitspastMDGachievements.Despiteefortstoun-
    derstandtheextentofclimatechangeimpacts,efec-
    tiveadaptationandadaptivecapacityindeveloping
    Asiancountrieswillcontinuetobelimitedbyvarious
    ecological,socialandeconomic,technical,institutional
    andpoliticalconstraints.
    Toaddressthismultitudeofproblems,aknowledge
    hubonclimatechangewasrecentlyestablished
    WWDR4 687 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC
    withintheframeworkoftheAsia-PacicWaterForum
    (APWF)topromotemoreefectiveregionalcoop-
    eration,includingmoretargetedresearchtoidentify
    typesofvulnerability,appropriatepolicies,strategies,
    andactionplansonadaptation.Itisexpectedthatthe
    knowledgehubwouldpromotethemainstreamingof
    thesepoliciesandstrategiesintonationaldevelopment
    agendasandenhancetheneededcapacitybuilding.
    Bhutanhasbeendevelopingmitigationandadaptation
    policies,whileincorporatingtheminstrategiesforeco-
    nomicgrowthandnationalplans.Formanyyearsthe
    maintoolformitigationofclimatechangehasbeen
    hydropower,whichisalsothelargestdrivingfactor
    ofthecountryspro-pooreconomicgrowth,asitac-
    countsfor25%ofGDPandmorethan40%fornational
    revenues.Adaptationstrategieshavebeenincluded
    inthegovernments10thFive-YearPlan(20082013)
    withthespecialnoteforpotentialadverseimpacts
    onhydrologicalowsforpowerplantsandirrigation,
    whichmayafectnationalenergyandfoodsecurity,
    andoodhazards,suchasglaciallakeoutburstoods
    (GLOF).Climatechangerisksareadditionallyad-
    dressedintheDisasterRiskManagementFramework
    (AsianDevelopmentBank,2010a).Formulationofthe
    WaterActfollowingprinciplesofIWRMhasbeenat
    thecoreofthesestrategies.Despitethiseforttoad-
    dressclimatechange-relatedrisks,Bhutandoesnot
    haveacomprehensiveclimatechangepolicy(National
    EnvironmentCommissionRoyalGovernmentof
    Bhutan,UNEP,2009).
    Severalgloballysponsoredadaptationprojectswere
    recentlyinitiatedinBhutan.TheGLOFRiskReduction
    Projectfocusedonthedevelopmentofaregional
    GLOFdatabaseandriskmanagementstrategiesinthe
    Himalayanregionforclimaticandmeteorologicalrisk
    reductionandmitigation(UNDP,2010).International
    partnersarehelpingBhutanreduceGLOFrisksaris-
    ingfromclimatechangeinthePunakha-Wangdiand
    Chamkharvalleysincludingplansforanearlywarning
    systemforthePunakha-WangdiValley(UNDP,2011).
    Amidpointassessmentin2010showedthatmitiga-
    tionactionsofarfocusedonloweringthewaterlevels
    oftheThorthormiLake,toreducetheriskofglacial
    oodsinthevalleyresultinginloweringthewaterlevel
    by67cmwhiletheaimistoloweritby5m(Meenawat
    andSovacool,2010).Earlywarningsystemshavealso
    improved:whilepreviouslyonlyonewarningstation
    wasoperatedmanuallybytwoemployees,in2010
    representativesof21vulnerablecommunitieswere
    BOX 31.2
    WaterSHED:Usingmarketstobringwater,
    sanitation,andhygienetoAsiaspoor
    Water,Sanitation,andHygieneEnterpriseDevelopment
    (WaterSHED)isaUSAID-fundedprojectimplemented
    inCambodia,LaoPeoplesDemocraticrepublicandViet
    NamasapublicprivatepartnershipledbytheUniversity
    ofNorthCarolinaatChapelHillintheUnitedStates.The
    programmeisdesignedtobringefective,afordablewater
    andsanitationtopooranddisadvantagedconsumersin
    Asia.Providingafordableanddesirablewaterandsanita-
    tionproductsincreasesconsumerdemandandencourages
    adequateuseamongthepoor.Usingprovenmarket-based
    principles,WaterSHEDleveragesthepowerofprivateen-
    terprisetobringwater,health,andwealthtothepoor.
    Anenterprisedevelopmentprogrammesupportsthe
    marketcreationinitiative.Theenterprisedevelopment
    programmefocusesonmanufacturing,marketing,and
    distributinghouseholdwatertreatmentandstorageprod-
    ucts,aswellashygieneandsanitationproducts,suchas
    latrines.Thisbusinessincubatorapproachaimstocreate
    private,for-protcompaniesanddevelopawell-function-
    ingsupplychaintoensureprogrammesustainabilitylong
    afterthedevelopmentdollarsaregone.
    Thesuccessbehindsuchprogrammesreliesontwomain
    businessprinciples:(a)oferingproductsconsumerswant
    atpricesbasedonfullcostand(b)sellingtolocalretail-
    ersandconsumersatfullcost,insteadofprovidingfree
    orsubsidizedproducts,whichcandistortthenaturalbusi-
    nessenvironment.
    Asecondfactorofsuccessisbuildingontheexistingef-
    fortsofnongovernmentorganizationstodeveloptrans-
    formationaltechnologies,providetrainingandeducation,
    anddrivedemandforcleanwatersolutions.Thefor-prot
    businessmodelneedstobedrivenbysustainabilityand
    efciencyratherthanbeingbasedonpermanentdonor
    funding.Bycreatingnewdistributionchannelsforclean
    waterproducts,suchasmicrofranchises,theoverallsup-
    plychainisstrengthenedandlocalentrepreneursare
    empoweredtodeterminecommunity-specicneeds.
    Engaginglocalmicronanceinstitutionsisalsocrucial,
    astheseprovidenanceoptionsforconsumers,allowing
    formonthlypayments(over1224months)onthepartof
    creditworthyborrowerswhosecashowpatternsdonot
    allowthemtoincurasinglelumpexpense.
    Throughthisprogramme,WaterSHEDhasprovidedwater
    lterstoover100,000peopleandnewlatrinestoover
    25,000.Inaddition,designinnovationsincludealow-cost
    aspirationalwaterlterandalow-cost,build-it-yourself
    latrinecostinglessthanUS$100.
    Source: Adapted from USAID (2010).
    CHAPTER31 REGIONALREPORTS 688
    providedwithmobilephonestocontactnationalau-
    thoritiesincaseofoodevents.Thereplacementof
    themanualsystembygaugesandsensorsformonitor-
    ingglaciallakedepthandriversisplanned.
    In2009,IndiaembarkedontheNationalWaterMission
    asapartoftheNationalActionPlanonClimate
    Change(2008),identifyingseveralstrategiestotackle
    climatechangeandachievewater-relatedgoals.The
    maingoalsaretocreateacomprehensivewaterda-
    tabaseandproperpublicawarenessandeducation
    campaigns,shiftfocusonoverexploitedareas,increase
    wateruseefciencyby20%andpromoteIWRMona
    basinlevel.Keystrategiesincluderegulatorymecha-
    nismswithdiferentialentitlementsandpricing,pro-
    motionofenvironmentallyfriendlysolutionsand
    behaviouralchange,efciencyimprovementofexist-
    ingfacilities,andimplementationofprogrammesfor
    groundwaterrecharge(Box31.3)(GovernmentofIndia,
    MinistryofWaterResources,2011).


    Notes
    1 Theviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonot
    necessarilyreecttheviewsoftheUnitedNations.
    2 Afectedbytheoceanicaircurrentinsummerandcontrolledby
    thecontinentalaircurrentinwinter,resultingindrywinterand
    wetsummer.
    3 Kazakhstanisaverylowperformerinallcategories,possibly
    becauseofthescarceandlimiteddataprovidedthroughthe
    survey.
    4 Forthepurposeofthisanalysis,conictisnotlimitedto
    armedconict,butincludesallwater-relateddisputesthat
    havenecessitatedmediation.Whetherviolentornot,these
    disputeshavethreatenedthestabilityofthesocio-economic
    developmentprocess.

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    UNECLAC

    AuthorTerenceLee
    ContributorsAndreiJouravlev(Coordinator),CaridadCanales,JeanAquatella,
    AndrianCashman,ColinHerron,EnriqueAguilar,JorgeDucci,MichaelHankte-Domas,
    FernandoMiralles-WilhelmandHumbertoPea
    CHAPTER 32
    Latin America and the Caribbean
    UNPhoto/GillFickling

    till taught by pain, Men really know not what good Waters worth
    Don Juan, Lord Byron

    There is a long tradition of water management in Latin America and the Caribbean, and it
    has gone through many changes. In the 1960s and 1970s, water resources development was
    among the leading development priorities with projects such as dams for hydroelectricity
    generation and irrigation.
    1
    These developments slowed with the serious economic crisis that
    afected most countries in the 1980s. More recently the emphasis in water management
    has changed as the priorities of governments have changed. The focus of the governments
    of the countries of the region is now primarily on fullling the Millennium Development
    Goals (MDGs) for the reduction of poverty, which for water management translates to a
    concentration on improvements in drinking water supply and sanitation, as exemplied by
    such major projects as the Water for All Programme in Peru. Water supply and sanitation
    are not, however, the only concern: there is a growing preoccupation with improving water
    governance as well with strengthening the role of water management in environmental
    protection. The concern for governance, in particular, is based on the perception that water
    management remains fragmented and inadequate and this could jeopardize progress in the
    reduction of poverty and in the achievement of sustainable development.
    As in almost every other area of economic activity and social conditions, there are both
    marked contrasts as well as many commonalities in the water sectors of the countries of the
    region. Commonality can be seen in the advances that have occurred in water management
    in all countries, and in the fact that these advances have not yet translated into universal
    increases in water use efciency, any overall change in the levels of water quality, or region-
    wide sustained increases in the contribution of water to social and economic development.
    Local advances can be observed in many aspects of water management. A few countries
    have undertaken large-scale reforms of their water management institutions, notably Mexico
    and Brazil, but these eforts have so far had only partial success.
    2
    The main issues facing the countries of the region in water management have not changed
    signicantly over the last two decades. There has been a widespread inability to establish
    institutions that are able to deal with water allocation issues under conditions of scarcity
    and conict. Various segments of the water sector still exhibit many examples of poor
    management, and there is a general absence of self-nancing and a consequent dependence
    on uctuating political support. In general, there is an inability to respond to crises. Despite
    much improvement, reliable information is often missing, including on the resource itself, on
    the infrastructure, on institutional responsibilities, and especially on water uses and users and
    on future needs.
    Contrasts also abound in the region, however, and are not just due to variations in climate
    and hydrology or to the scale at which water management must operate Brazil is 10,000
    times the area of Dominica, for example. Equally or more so the contrasts are due to
    diferences in the nature, stability and potency of institutional systems, dissimilarities in the
    distribution and demographic structure of the population, and sizeable variations in levels of
    income. Some impressive advances in specic water management activities such as the
    substantial, sustainable and nationwide development of urban water supply, sewerage and
    wastewater treatment in Chile have also contributed to the diferences among the countries.
    The issues that water management in Latin America and the Caribbean has had to confront
    do not all come from within the water box. There have always been strong external drivers
    or forces afecting both the water resource and its management. The more signicant of
    these come from general social change, but they also include macroeconomic policies, often
    a negative inuence, stemming from abrupt changes in domestic policies and from outside
    WWDR4 693 LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN
    32.1Externaldriversandtheirefects
    Onlythoseexternalinuencesordriverswiththemost
    signicantinuenceonwatermanagementaredis-
    cussedhere.Naturally,thereareothersthatmayhave
    inuenceonoccasionparticularlyeventsstemming
    fromtheendemicpoliticalinstabilityinmanycountries.
    Amorepermanentnegativedriveristheinefciency
    andweaknessinthewiderpublicsector,whichcan
    hamperseriouslyevenwell-plannedandwell-man-
    agedwatermanagementpoliciesandprojects.The
    inuenceofthestateofthewiderpublicsectorcan
    beseeninmanyoftheexamplesofinnovativepolicies
    andprogrammescitedhere.
    32.1.1Thechangingeconomicandsocialenvironment
    Obviously,thereareconsequencesforwateruseand
    thedemandplacedonthewaterresourceastheeco-
    nomicandsocialenvironment,inwhichwatermanage-
    mentisimmersed,changes.Theinuenceofeconomic
    andsocialchangegoesbeyondtheshort-termefect
    ofglobalnancialcrises,suchasthatof20082009,
    andnationalcrises,suchastheMexicanpesocrisis
    of1994orthecollapseoftheArgentineaneconomy
    in2001(KleinandCoutio,1996).Crisescananddo
    interruptongoingprogrammes,buttheyrarelyhave
    morethanshort-termconsequences.Ofmorefar-
    reachinginuencehasbeenthehistoricalvolatilityin
    theratesofeconomicgrowthintheregion
    (Figure32.1).
    Fortunately,volatilityhasmarkedlylessenedrecently
    andthetrendinratesofgrowthhasbeenpositive.The
    greaterstabilityinthegeneraleconomyhaspermitted
    moresustainablewatermanagement,butalsohasre-
    sultedintheemergenceofnewdemandsforwater-
    relatedservicesasgrowthhaswroughtnotable
    changesintheeconomicandsocialstructureofLatin
    AmericanandCaribbeansocieties.Thegrowthand
    greaterstabilityintheeconomiesofthecountries
    oftheregionhascausedmanyapparentlydisparate
    changesindemandforwaterservices,suchasthatfor
    tourismintheCaribbeanandforenergyalmostevery-
    where,bothofwhichtendtobecloselyrelatedtoper
    capitaincomewithinthecountriesthemselvesandin
    therestoftheworld.
    Povertyandtherelatedunequaldistributionofin-
    comeremainunresolvedissuesinallcountriesofLatin
    AmericaandinmostofthoseoftheEnglish-speaking
    Caribbean.Althoughone-thirdofthepopulationisesti-
    matedtostillbelivinginpovertysome180million
    peopletheaverageratesofpovertyhavefallen
    steadilyoverthepast20years(ECLAC,2009c).Less
    progresshasbeenmadeinreducingincomeinequality.
    Thewaterresourcesectorhasamajorroletoplayin
    povertyreductionprogrammesthroughtheprovision
    ofdrinkingwatersupplyandsanitationservices,which
    governmentshaveincreasinglyrecognized.Demands
    forimprovedservicescanbeexpectedtocontinue
    toincreasebetweennowand2015asthecountries
    oftheregionattempttomeettheMDGsforpoverty
    reduction.
    Aslevelsofpovertyhavedeclinedtherehasbeena
    largeincreaseinthatpartofthepopulationthatcan
    beconsideredtobemiddleclassduetoincreasing

    (such as the global nancial crisis of 20082009), but they are sometimes positive:
    macroeconomic administration has improved domestically and globally, as with the recent
    expansion of participation in world markets and adoption of countercyclical macroeconomic
    policies. Political instability for example the turmoil in Honduras in 2009 can hamper the
    sustainability of water management policies. There are also important, if subtle, pressures
    on the sector produced by gradual economic and social change that can produce issues
    difcult for water managers to resolve. Extreme climatic events, especially hurricanes in
    the Caribbean, have long had a negative inuence on water management, particularly the
    destruction of infrastructure. Recently, the complex of uncertainties related to and derived
    from climate change has become a looming challenge.
    This chapter will examine the risks, uncertainties and opportunities ofered by the most
    important contemporary external drivers, as well as focus on a number of areas of particular
    concern within water management itself. The examination will be illustrated by references to
    both positive and negative experiences in the region.
    CHAPTER32 REGIONALREPORTS 694
    levelsofincomeandsomeimprovementinthevery
    unequalincomedistributioncharacteristicofthere-
    gion.
    3
    Oneconsequenceofthisemergenceofalarger
    middleclasshasbeentheincreasingdemandstogive
    moreemphasistotheresolutionofenvironmentalis-
    sues,illustratedbythecontroversiesarisingfromdam
    constructionorovertheconstructionofpulpmills
    ontheRiverUruguay.Thereareanumberofexam-
    plesintheregionrelatedtotheincreasingconcernfor
    thesocialandenvironmentalrepercussionsofwater
    projects,particularlytheconstructionoflargehydro-
    electricitygenerationplants,suchasthecontroversies
    surroundingthedecisionoftheBraziliangovernment
    toapprovethebuildingoftheBeloMonteDamonthe
    XingutributaryoftheAmazonandovertheproposed
    constructionofhydroelectricitygenerationplantsin
    theRoBakerbasininChile.
    4
    Overall,therehasbeen
    anabandonmentofreservoir-basedhydroelectricity
    generationplantsinfavourofrun-of-the-riverplants.
    Asubtlerexampleoftheinuenceofrisingexpecta-
    tionsamongthenewmiddleclasscanbededuced
    fromthepopularacceptanceinChileofaverysig-
    nicantincreaseinwatersupplyandseweragetarifs.
    Tarifswereincreasedsubstantiallyfollowingthede-
    cisionofthegovernmenttoplacegreateremphasis
    onhealthandenvironmentalconcernsaswellasto
    protecttheexportofagriculturalproductsthrough
    thedevelopmentofanambitiousprogrammeforthe
    treatmentofdomesticsewagedischarges.By2010,
    almost90%ofurbansewagewasreceivingtreatment
    (SISS,2011).
    32.1.2Externaldemandsfornaturalresources
    WiththeexceptionsofMexicoandsomeofthesmall
    countriesofCentralAmerica,thecountriesofLatin
    Americabasetheireconomiesontheexportofnatu-
    ralresources.Theglobaldemandfortheseproducts,
    whetherminerals,foodcropsorotheragricultural
    products,timber,shortourism,hasincreasednotably
    inrecentyears.Moreover,muchoftheproductionof
    thesegoodsandservicesisnancedbyexternalcapi-
    talandmanyofthefacilitiesareforeignowned.The
    resultisthatthemajorengineofeconomicgrowthin
    theregion,withheavydemandsonthewaterresource,
    issubjecttofactorsoutsidethedirectcontrolofthe
    governmentsofthecountriesoftheregion.Thisisso
    evenwhentheproducingcompaniesarelocallyowned,
    asitistheworldmarketsthatdeterminedemand.
    Forwatermanagement,thedependenceonnatu-
    ralresourcesiscomplicatedbythephysicallocation
    ofmanyoftheactivitiestoobtainthem.Forexam-
    ple,theexpansionofcopperandgoldmininginChile
    andPeruhasmainlyoccurredinaridareasandhasled
    tocompetitionforscarcewaterresourcesbothwith
    exportagriculturedependentonirrigation,andwith
    theneedsoftheindigenouspopulation.Tourismde-
    mandhasincreasedwaterstressonmanyCaribbean
    islandsastouristsconsumefarmorewaterthanlocal
    residents.Cofeeproductionuseslargequantitiesof
    waterandcanseriouslyafectwaterquality.Onepo-
    tentialfuturedemandforirrigationcouldcomefrom
    theproductionofbiofuels.However,inBrazil,theonly
    currentsignicantproducerintheregion,
    5
    sugarcane
    FIGURE 32.1
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean:GDPatconstant2005prices,19512010(variationrates)
    Source: From ECLAC CEPALSTAT ((http://www.eclac.cl/estadisticas, accessed in 2011).
    1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980
    -4
    -2
    0
    2
    4
    6
    8
    10
    1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
    WWDR4 695 LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN
    productionisrainfedandonly3.5%ofirrigationde-
    mandatpresentisusedforbiofuelproduction(de
    Fraitureetal.,2008).
    Theuncertaintyinthelevelofdemandsoftheglobal
    marketandthechangingnatureofthesedemands
    havealwaysconsiderablycomplicatedwatermanage-
    mentdecision-makingintheregionaslocaleconomies
    expandandcontractaccordingtothedemandsofthe
    globaleconomy.
    32.1.3Macroeconomicpolicies
    Macroeconomicpolicyhasapervasiveinuenceonthe
    structureofincentivesandperformanceintheentire
    watersector(DonosoandMelo,2004,p.4):thishas
    beenveryevidentinthecountriesofLatinAmericaand
    theCaribbean.Forexample,highratesofinationcan
    destroyanyattemptstodevelopefectivechargingsys-
    temsforwateruseortoprotectwaterquality.
    Successfulmacroeconomicpoliciesleadingtohigh
    ratesofgrowth,asinChileinthe1990sandin
    ArgentinaandPerumorerecently,alsoimposechal-
    lengesonwatermanagersasnewdemandscan
    emergemorerapidlythanwatermanagementpolicies
    canbeadapted.
    Atthesametime,rapideconomicgrowthofersmany
    opportunities.Strongwaterinstitutionscanattract
    investmentnotjustforexpansionofandimprove-
    mentinwater-relatedinfrastructure,butalsoforwater
    managementitself.ThereareexamplesofthisinBrazil,
    MexicoandChilewhere,astherespectiveeconomies
    havegrown,thepoliticaldecisionhasbeentakento
    strengthenwatermanagementinstitutions.
    Whatisrequiredmostofall,however,isnotjustperi-
    odsofeconomicgrowth,butstabilityinpoliciesover
    time.Manywatermanagementprogrammescantake
    decadestomature.Forexample,thecurrenturban
    drinkingwatersupplyandsanitationsysteminChile
    grewoutofdecisionstakeninthemid-1970s,andthe
    regionalenvironmentalauthorities(CARs)inColombia
    wererstcreatedin1961.
    32.1.4Socialpolicies
    InrecentyearsmostgovernmentsinLatinAmerica
    andtheCaribbeanhaveplacedgreatstressonimprov-
    ingthesocialconditionsoftheirpopulations.Thepro-
    grammesandprojectscarriedoutundertheirpolicies
    areofthemostdiversenature,butmanyhavedirect
    bearingonwatermanagementandondecisionsmade
    withinthewatersector.Thisisobviouswiththerecent
    stressonpoliciestoincreasetheprovisionofdrink-
    ingwatersupplyandsanitationservices.However,it
    isnotalwaysobviouswhattheimpactofanysetof
    socialpolicesmightbe.Forexample,efortstoextend
    coverageofdrinkingwatersupplyandsanitationmay
    raiseissuesrelatedtowaterqualityatbothendsofthe
    pipe.Theneedcanarisetoprotectallwatersources
    whetherstreamsandlakesorgroundwaterwhile
    atthesametimethereistheneedtoprotectdrinking
    watersourcesfrompollutioncausedbythedisposalof
    untreatedwastewaters.Thisis,perhaps,afairlyobvi-
    ousexternaldriveronwatermanagement.Anexample
    ofalessobviousdriveristheresultsoftheimprove-
    mentinlivingstandards.Inresortareasclosetomajor
    populationcentres,thishasgeneratedbothincreased
    wastewaterowsanddemandsforgreaterpollution
    control.Protectingpopularbeachesfrompollution
    hasdrivenanumberofdecisionstodevelopsewage
    treatment,includingtheCleanBeachesprogramme
    inMexico(CONAGUA,2009).InUruguay,protect-
    ingbeachesoftheLaPlataestuarywasamajordriver
    ofthedecisiontobuildsewagetreatmentplantsin
    Montevideo(IDB,2010).
    Housingpoliciestoocanprovideadiferentkindof
    boostforthewatersector.Improvinghousingmeans
    notonlyprovidingdrinkingwaterandsanitation,
    butcanalsoleadtotheadoptionofprogrammesto
    controlurbanoodinginthenewresidentialareas.
    Urbanoodingremainsaperennialprobleminall
    largeurbanareasinLatinAmerica,oftenworsened
    bythebuildingofinformalresidentialdevelopments
    inood-proneareassometimesinareassetasidefor
    oodmitigation.
    32.1.5Extremeeventsandclimatechange
    Anyimpactofclimatechangeonthewaterresourc-
    eswillbeconditionedbytheirabundanceinLatin
    AmericaandtheCaribbean.About35%oftheworlds
    continentalwaters(freshwater)arefoundinthere-
    gion,butthedistributionwithinandacrosscountries
    ishighlyvariable.Manyareas(e.g.northernMexico,
    NortheasternBrazil,coastalPeru,northernChile)have
    greatdifcultymeetingtheirwaterneeds.Moreover,
    largeportionsofArgentina,Bolivia,Chile,Peru,north
    easternBrazil,Ecuador,Colombia,andcentraland
    northernMexicoaresemi-aridandsubjecttowide
    variationsinrainfall.Often,asinPeru,muchofthe
    populationandeconomicactivityisconcentratedin
    CHAPTER32 REGIONALREPORTS 696
    water-scarceareas.Fortheregionasawholeitisesti-
    matedthat30%ofthepopulationliveinaridorsemi-
    aridareas.
    WatermanagersinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
    havelongfacedthechallengesposedbyincreased
    climatevariabilityandchangeandrelatedextreme
    events,suchastheextremeeventsrecurrentinHaiti
    andtheannualhavoccausedbyhurricanesinthe
    Caribbean,CentralAmericaandMexico.
    Examplesincludetacklingtheproblemsassociated
    withElNio/LaNia-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)
    eventsinPeruandwiththecycleofdryandwetyears
    inthedroughtpolygonofNorthEasternBrazil,domi-
    natedbyalargesemi-aridexpanse,theserto,which
    encompassesabout900,000km
    2
    .Thesertoissub-
    jecttorecurrentdroughts,whichareoftenfollowedby
    oods.Theseeventsmaynotafecttheentiresemi-
    aridregionatanyonetime,buthavebeenofsufcient
    recurrence,intensityandmagnitudetowarrantper-
    manentprotectivepoliciesandprogrammes,notjust
    emergencymeasures.
    32.1.6Demographicchange
    ThecountriesofLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanare
    goingthroughanewperiodofrapiddemographic
    change.Followingthegreatmigrationtothecities
    inthe1960sand1970s,thelastmajordemographic
    event,themaincharacteristicofthecurrentdemo-
    graphicsituationintheregionisarapiddeclinein
    birthratesresultinginarapidlyslowingrateofpopula-
    tiongrowth:1.3%inthe1980sandexpectedtofalltoa
    rate,forLatinAmericaasawhole,oflessthan0.5%by
    2050(Figure32.2).Theregionhasarelativelyclean
    energymatrixduetoitshighshareofhydroelectric-
    ity,whichat11%oftotalprimaryenergysupplyalmost
    doublestheworldaverage.Intermsofcarbondioxide
    emissionsfromfossilfuelcombustionpercapita,Latin
    AmericaandtheCaribbeanisstillfourtimesbellow
    theOECDaverageandlessthanhalfthatofChinaal-
    thoughslightlyabovethelevelofIndia.Thedeclineis
    sogreatthatifcurrenttrendscontinue,thepopulation
    willbegintofallabsolutelyinsomecountries,notably
    inCubaandUruguay(CELADE,2007).
    Thedeclineinbirthratesalsomeansthat,evenifthe
    totalnationalpopulationremainsstable,manyregions
    willlosepopulation,especiallyruralandisolatedones.
    Maintainingservicesforsmallerpopulationsraisesnew
    issues.Inthecaseofwatersupplyandsewerageitcan
    alsomeanthatfacilitiesmayendupover-designed,
    hamperingtheiroperationsandunderminingnancial
    stability.
    Thefallinbirthrateshasbeenaccompaniedrecent-
    lybyanevenfasterincreaseinlongevity.Itisesti-
    matedthatthenumberofpeopleovertheageof
    FIGURE 32.2
    AnnualaveragerateofpopulationgrowthforLatinAmericaandselectedsinglecountries(19502050)
    Source: CELADE (2009).
    LatinAmerica
    1850-
    1955
    1955-
    1960
    1960-
    1965
    1965-
    1970
    1970-
    1975
    1975-
    1980
    1980-
    1985
    1985-
    1990
    1990-
    1995
    1995-
    2000
    2000-
    2005
    2005-
    2010
    2010-
    2015
    2015-
    2020
    2020-
    2025
    4
    3
    2
    1
    0
    -1
    -2
    2025-
    2030
    2030-
    2035
    2035-
    2040
    2040-
    2045
    2045-
    2050
    Cuba Guatemala CostaRica
    WWDR4 697 LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN
    65inLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanwilltripleby
    2050(CELADE,2007);again,thiscanbeexpected
    tochangethenatureofthedemandformanyser-
    vicesrelatedtowater,suchasincreasedrecreation-
    aldemandsandlowerwatersupplydemandsasa
    higherproportionofthepopulationliveinapartment
    complexes.
    LatinAmericaisalreadytheworldsmosturbanized
    developingregion,withmorethan80%ofthepopu-
    lationlivingintownsandcities(ECLAC,2010).There
    hasbeenamassiveshiftofpopulationfromruralto
    urbanareasandincreasinglylargeinter-citymigra-
    toryows,resultingintheestablishmentofanurban
    systemcharacterizedbyahighpercentageoflarge
    cities(withmorethanonemillioninhabitants)and
    byahighconcentrationofthepopulationinsome
    countrieslivinginthelargest(ortwolargest)cit-
    ies.However,urbanizationisnottheonlysignicant
    characteristicofchangesinthespatialdistribution
    ofthepopulation.Therehasalsobeentheprogres-
    siveandsometimesaggressivesettlementof
    whathashistoricallybeensparselypopulatedland
    intheheartoftheregion,particularlyintheAmazon
    andOrinocoriverbasins.Thesechangeshaveplayed
    theirpartinthenewprioritiesofthegovernmentsof
    theregion.Theemphasisonurbanwaterproblems
    hasarisenfromtheheavyweightoftheurbanpopu-
    lationsinthepoliticalprocessand,ingeneral,their
    moreactiveroleinpolitics.InBrazil,thegrowing
    economicimportanceofsettlementsintheAmazon
    basinisplayingandexpectedtocontinuetoplaya
    crucialroleinthepoliciesadoptedtowardsthede-
    velopmentofthebasin.Infact,thediehasprobably
    beenalreadycastinthedecisionbetweendevelop-
    mentandconservationtotheadvantageofthefor-
    mer,astherateofgrowthofpopulationinthebasin
    accelerates.
    32.2Risks,uncertaintiesandopportunities
    Themostsignicantrisksanduncertaintiesfacingwa-
    termanagementinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
    appearlikelytostemfromglobaleconomicevents,
    climatechangeanddomesticdemandsforcontinu-
    ingimprovementintheprovisionofwaterservices
    allthreewillprovidesignicantchallengesforwater
    managersanddecisionmakersinthebroaderframes
    alike.Moreover,thereisacomplexinter-relationship
    amongthem.Oneobviousexample:globaleconomic
    eventswillplayalargepartinguidingdevelopment
    andassociateddomesticprosperity(ornot)inthe
    countriesoftheregionwhich,inturn,throughchang-
    esinincome,willinuencethedemandsforwater-
    relatedgoodsandservices,andconsequentlywater
    management.Anotherexample:climatechangewill
    introduceabasketofunexpectedfactorsdirectly
    throughitsimpactonthewaterresourceandindi-
    rectlythroughitsinuenceonmanyaspectsofthe
    economy.
    Giventhemagnitudeoftheglobalnancialcrisis,the
    LatinAmericanandCaribbeanregionhasnotbeenspared
    itsimpacts.Yetthiscrisishasdiferedfromthosethere-
    gionhasexperiencedinthepast,notonlybecausethe
    epicentrelayindevelopedcountries,althoughthisplayed
    nosmallpartinaccountingforrecenteconomictrends,
    but,aboveall,becauseofthejunctureatwhichthecrisis
    brokeoutintheregionandhowtheregionwasafected.
    Thecombinationofhighlyfavourableexternalconditions
    andmoreprudentmanagementofmacroeconomicpolicy
    haveenabledtheregiontoreduceitsoutstandingdebt
    andtorenegotiateitonadvantageousterms,whilealso
    buildingupinternationalreserves.TheLatinAmerican
    economiesthuswentintothecrisiswithunprecedented
    liquidityandsolvency.Thecountriesnancialsystems
    havenotdeterioratedandtherehasbeennoightfrom
    localcurrencies,whichhashelpedtomaintaincalmin
    theregionscurrencymarkets.However,anumberof
    Caribbeancountriesarecarryingheftyexternaldebtsand
    facingrathermorecomplexexchangeratesituations.
    Alsounlikethesituationduringpreviouscrises,thebroad-
    enedmacroeconomicpolicyspaceinmanyoftheregions
    countrieshasgiventhemsubstantialcapacityforanti-cri-
    sispolicy-making.
    Althoughpovertylevelsintheregionhaveremainedhigh,
    andtheimpactofthecrisisonsocialvariableswaspre-
    dictablynegative,thedeteriorationwasnotasgreatas
    hadinitiallybeenprojected.Theriseinsocialspending
    inthepastfewyearsandtheincreaseinthenumberand
    efectivenessofsocialprogrammesplayedanimportant
    roleincontainingthesocialcostsofthecrisis.Learning
    thelessonsfrompreviouscrises,thecountriesinthere-
    gionhavesoughttomaintainandexpandthecover-
    ageoftheseprogrammes,eveninthecontextofagradu-
    allytighteningscalspace.
    Source: ECLAC (2009b).
    BOX 32.1
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanandtheglobal
    nancialcrisis
    CHAPTER32 REGIONALREPORTS 698
    32.2.1Globaleconomicevents
    Therecentglobalnancialcrisisnoticeablyafect-
    edtheeconomiesofthecountriesintheregion,but
    comparedwithsimilaroccurrencesintherecentpast,
    thecountrieswithstoodtheproblemswell(Box32.1).
    Moreover,theeconomiesarenowrecuperatingfairly
    rapidlyandseemsettoresumetheperiodofrapid
    expansionthatthecrisisinterrupted.Thiswillprovide
    apositiveenvironmentforinvestmentintheregion.
    Thisinvestment,giventhestructureoftheeconomies
    ofthecountriesofLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,
    willincreasewaterdemands.IncontinentalLatin
    America,however,overalldemandontheregionswa-
    terresourcesremainslowandspatiallyveryconcen-
    trated.Itisestimatedthatwaterabstractionsamount
    toonlyabout1%ofavailablewater;incontrast,in
    theCaribbean,14%oftheavailablewaterisabstract-
    ed.Thiscompareswithaworldaverageofsome9%
    (UnitedNations,2010).However,therearesignicant
    restrictionsonaccesstothisabundance,astheloca-
    tionofthepopulationandeconomicactivitiesinthe
    regiondoesnotcoincidewithplentifulwatersources:
    approximatelyone-thirdofthepopulationliveinarid
    andsemi-aridareas.
    TheCopiapovalleyinnorthernChileprovidesanexam-
    pleofthepotentialconictsthatcanarisefromlarge-
    scaleinvestmentsrelatedtoservingglobalmarkets
    inareasofwaterscarcity.Thisisaregionthatpro-
    duceslargevolumesofexportcrops,particularlytable
    grapes,butatthesametimethevalleyisthesiteof
    anincreasingnumberofcopperandothermines.The
    surfacewatersofthevalleyhavelongbeencommit-
    tedandincreasingrelianceisplacedongroundwater.
    Theresulthasbeenthedrillingofincreasinglydeeper
    wellsbythefruitfarmersandconsequentlythemining
    ofthegroundwaterasratesofextractionhaveexceed-
    edanycapacityforrecharge(El Mercurio,2010).This
    problemhasarisendespitethegenerallyhighlevelof
    governanceinChileandtheexistenceofwatermar-
    kets.Decienciesinthedenitionofwaterrightsand
    weaknessofwatermanagementinstitutions,have
    contributedtothecurrentover-exploitationofwater
    resourcesintheregion.
    32.2.2Climatechange
    Theregionmakesonlyaminorcontributiontoglob-
    algreenhousegasemissions(GHG):in2008,Latin
    AmericaandtheCaribbeanaccountedfor8.6%of
    theworldspopulation,8.2%ofglobalgrossdomes-
    ticproduct(GDP)and7.6%ofglobalGHGemissions,
    excludingthosefromchangesinlanduse(Figure
    32.3).However,onapercapitabasisandwhenemis-
    sionsfromlandusechangesareincluded,theregion
    contributesmoreGHGemissionsthandoallother
    developingcountries,includingChinaandIndia.The
    mainsourceofemissionscomesfromdeforestation,
    accountingforalmosthalfoftotalemissions(WRI,
    2009).Vastforestareas,equivalentto4millionhec-
    taresperyearsince2000,arebeinglostintheregion
    astheagriculturalfrontierexpands,andmanyforest
    areasremainunderthreatdespitetheefortsthat
    arebeingmadetocontroldeforestation(FAO,2010).
    Efortstoaddresschangesinlanduseandreducethe
    emissionsfromdeforestationareapriorityforthe
    regionasacontributiontotheglobaleforttoreduce
    greenhousegases.
    Atthesametime,manypartsoftheregionarehighly
    vulnerabletotheadverseconsequencesofclimate
    change,andclimatechangethreatenstheprogress
    madeinrecentdecadesindevelopmentandinthe
    achievementoftheMDGs.
    Thecountriesestimatedtobeinareasofhighorex-
    tremeriskfromglobalclimatechangeareoftenthe
    poorestcountriesoftheregionthoseinCentral
    America,theCaribbeanandtheAndes.Itisinthese
    countrieswithrelativelyweakwatermanagementca-
    pacitiesthatthegreatestchallengeswillbefaced.
    Themostseriouschallengesarisingfromclimate
    changeforthemanagementofwaterresourcesin
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeancanbeexpectedto
    lieinthefollowingareas:
    Signicantdeteriorationinthequality,quantityand
    availabilityofwaterforallusesinmanyareas.
    Damagetocoastalareasowingtoapotentialrisein
    sealevels,whichinturnwillafectriverregimes.
    Increasedeconomicdamagefromthegreaterinten-
    sityandfrequencyofhurricanesandtropicalstorms
    duetohigheroceansurfaceandairtemperatures
    (ECLAC/IDB,2010).
    Climatechangewillalsobringsignicantopportunities
    forthewiderapplicationofimaginativeinnovations
    inmanyaspectsofwatermanagement,particularlyin
    hydrometeorology.Therearealreadyexamplesofsuc-
    cessfulinnovation,suchasthedevelopmentofana-
    tionalmeteorologicalsystemprovidinglocalforecasts
    specicallydirectedatagricultureinChile,andtheuse
    ofweatherforecastsinPerutocounteractthenegative
    WWDR4 699 LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN
    awarenessofenvironmentalissuesandconictsover
    greenerenergyandconstructionofdams;andimprove
    waterpollutioncontrol.Manycountriesarediscussing
    thereformofwaterlaws,somehavealreadychanged
    themoradoptednewones(asfore.g.Brazil,Chile,
    Honduras,Mexico,Nicaragua,PeruandParaguay),
    virtuallyallhavereformeddrinkingwatersupplyand
    sanitationsectorlegislation,andsomearemodifying
    itagain.Onlyinfewcaseshavethesechangesalready
    producedextensiveinnovationinpractice(Solanes
    andJouravelev,2006).
    Risingexpectationsforbetterwatermanagementcre-
    aterisksandposechallenges,butalsoofergreatop-
    portunities.Inmanyareas,therehasbeennoticeable
    improvementinirrigationefciency,astheareaunder
    irrigationhassloweditsexpansion,throughtheadop-
    tionofadvancedirrigationtechniques(dripirrigation,
    forexample)andtheuseofnewcropvarietiesthat
    demandlesswater;however,morethan95%ofthe
    cultivatedarearemainsundersurfaceirrigation(FAO,
    2009).Thereremains,therefore,muchroomforbetter,
    moreefcientirrigation.Thisisespeciallysogiventhe
    intentionannouncedbyanumberofcountriestoplay
    amajorroleinsatisfyingtheincreasedglobaldemands
    forfoodandbiofuels.
    Waterissuesarenotwellunderstoodbythepublicat
    large.Prominentexamplesofimprovedwaterman-
    agement,suchastheconstructionoflargedamsin
    the1960sand1970sortherecentclean-upofthe
    MapochoRiverinSantiago,Chile,havenotbeensuf-
    cienttoraisepublicawarenessoftheimportanceof
    watermanagementoverthelongterm.
    Traditionally,therehasbeenawidespreadpoliticalin-
    terferenceinwatermanagementafectingeventechni-
    caldecisions.Therearefavourablesignsofattemptsto
    isolatewaterinstitutionsfrompoliticalinterferenceas
    seenintheinstitutionaldesignoftheNationalWater
    Agency(ANA)inBrazil.
    32.3Areasofparticularconcern
    WithinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,thereare
    majorareasofconcernthatafectallcountriesinthe
    regionandtouchonallissueslikelytofacethewater
    sectorinthenearfuture,buttherearealsogeographi-
    calareaswiththeirownparticularwatermanagement
    scenarios.Someofthesefollow.
    consequencesofElNioevents(Box32.2).While,as
    yet,thereislittlesignofmajorchangesinwaterman-
    agementpoliciesinLatinAmericabecauseoftheper-
    ceivedconsequencesofclimatechange,thereismore
    realizationofthepotentialnegativeefectsamong
    thegovernmentsoftheislandsoftheCaribbeanand
    Andeancountries,asinBoliviaandPeru,particularlyin
    relationtourbanwatersupply.
    32.2.3Thedemandforbetterwatermanagement
    Itisverylikely,giventheeconomicandsocialenviron-
    mentinmanycountriesoftheregion,thatpressure
    toimprovewatermanagementasaresultofchang-
    ingsocialprioritiesandalterationsinpatternsofwa-
    teravailabilityandusewillincrease.Newdemands
    andprioritiescanbeexpectedtoarise,includingthe
    needtoprotecttheincreasedinvestmentinurban
    infrastructurefromooding;improvetheefciency
    ofwateruseinirrigationfarming;addressthegreat-
    eruseofwaterresourcesforrecreation;respondto
    FIGURE 32.3
    GreenhousegasemissionsfromLatinAmerica
    andtheCaribbeanasashareoftheglobaltotal
    (19902005)
    Note: Emissions include CO2, CH4, SF6, N2O, PFCs and HFCs, but
    exclude those from land use changes.
    Source: WRI (2009).
    World
    1990 1995 2000 2005
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
    0
    5,000
    10,000
    15,000
    20,000
    25,000
    30,000
    35,000
    40,000
    30,056
    1,997.7
    2,196.6
    2,612.4
    2,840.1
    31,055
    33,190
    37,767
    MegatonsofCO2equivalent
    CHAPTER32 REGIONALREPORTS 700
    Around80%ofthepopulationofLatinAmerica
    andtheCaribbeanlivesincitiesandalmosthalfin
    citiesofmorethanonemillioninhabitants.Manyof
    theselargeurbanconglomerationshaveprecarious
    drinkingwatersupplyandseweragenetworksand
    nearlyalllacksewagetreatment.Thereisalsolittle
    regulationorcontrolofindustrialwastedischarg-
    esandmanyurbanareasaresubjecttoepisodic
    ooding.
    ThepoorercountriesofCentralAmerica,manyof
    thesmallerislandsoftheCaribbean,andBoliviaand
    Paraguayfacegraveproblemsofwatermanage-
    mentandareamongthemostexposedtothenega-
    tiveconsequencesofclimatechange.Theytendto
    haveonlyalimitedcapacitytorespondtochalleng-
    esduetoweakinstitutionsandalackofnancial
    resourcesandtrainedpersonnel.
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanistheworldsmost
    humidregion,but,asalreadymentioned,thereare
    largearidandsemi-aridareasinnorthernMexico,
    Peru,Chile,ArgentinaandNorthernBrazilthatwill
    likelybethemostsusceptibletoanynegativereper-
    cussionsfromclimatechange.
    Theshrinkingofglaciersandthereductionofavail-
    ablewaterresourcesrepresentamajorconcernfor
    theAndeancountries.Thiswillhaveconsiderable
    efectsontheregionswatersources,hydroelectric
    powerandagriculture,aswellastheconserva-
    tionofnaturalecosystemsintheAmazonin
    particular.
    32.3.1Improvingwatergovernance
    TheEconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandthe
    Caribbean(ECLAC)haslongmaintainedthatanyref-
    erencetoawatershortageinourregionintheabso-
    lutephysicalsenseisnotveryappropriateThereis
    nodenying,however,thatwatermanagementsys-
    temsareoftenpoorlyorganisedifnotnon-existent
    (ECLAC,1997,p.1),sothatinLatinAmericaandthe
    Caribbeanthewatercrisisismoreaninstitutional
    onethanoneofwaterscarcity(ECLAC,2001).Allthe
    countriesoftheregionwillcontinuetofaceconstant
    challengesinwatermanagementand,therefore,need
    tondlegislativeandinstitutionalanswersthatcan
    helppreventandresolvegrowingconictsoverwater
    use,aswellasmitigateextremenaturalphenomena.
    Regionalassociationsandtheinteractionofmotivated
    andinformedprofessionalgroupsmayprovedeci-
    siveinimprovingsectorgovernanceproblemsand
    ingivingtechnicalviabilitytoproposalsforchange.
    Fundamentalisthedisseminationandopeningupof
    thedebatetothepublicandawiderangeofdecision-
    makers.InBrazil,thediscussionprocessleadingtothe
    NationalWaterActof1997wasopenedtodiferent
    sectorsofsociety.Organizationsofwaterprofession-
    alsplayedakeyroleinleadingthediscussion(Portoet
    al.,1999).Forinstance,theBrazilianWaterResources
    Associationproducedformalstatements,approvedby
    itsmembersthathelpedintroducenovelconceptsinto
    thediscussionofthelaw.TheBrazilianexampleshows
    thesignicanceoftheexistenceofabasicconsensusif
    solidprogressistobemadeingovernance.
    Itcanbeverydifculttoimplementreformevenwhen
    itreceiveswidespreadpoliticalsupportandislegally
    enforced.Forexample,inBrazil,oneofthecentralfea-
    turesofthe1997waterlawwasestablishinguserfees
    forwateruse,butthesearenotbeingcollectedona
    regularbasis(Benjaminetal.,2005);inColombia,the
    collectionoffeesfrompollutersbyCARshasbeen
    hamperedbythereluctanceofmunicipalitiestopay;
    andinMexico,fewofthenewriverbasinagencies
    createdundertheNational Water Lawof2004are
    fullyfunctioning.
    PoorgovernanceinmanycountriesofLatinAmerica
    andtheCaribbeanrunsfromthetoptothebottomof
    thesector.Itisnotrestrictedtothemanagementofthe
    InPeru,since1983,forecastsoftheupcomingrainysea-
    sonhavebeenissuedeachNovemberbasedonobser-
    vationsofwindandwatertemperaturesinthetropical
    Pacicregionandtheoutputofnumericalprediction
    models.
    Oncetheforecastisissued,farmerrepresentativesand
    governmentofcialsmeettodecidetheappropriate
    combinationofcropstosowtomaximizetheoverall
    yield.Riceandcotton,twooftheprimarycropsgrownin
    northernPeru,arehighlysensitivetothequantitiesand
    timingofrainfall.Ricethrivesonwetconditionsduring
    thegrowingseasonfollowedbydrierconditionsduring
    theripeningphase.Cotton,withitsdeeperrootsystem,
    cantoleratedrierweather.Hence,aforecastofElNio
    weathermightinducefarmerstoswitchfromricetocot-
    tonorviceversa.
    Source: NOAA (2010).
    BOX 32.2
    UseofweatherforecastsinPeru
    WWDR4 701 LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN
    waterresourcebutisrifeinthemanagementofmost
    water-basedservices(SolanesandJouravlev,2006).
    Aseriousconstraintonimprovingmanagementstems
    fromtheabsenceofanylarge-scaleformaleducation
    forwatermanagementateithertheuniversityortech-
    nicallevel.Thereisaplentifulsupplyofwell-educated
    waterprofessionalsinmosteldsofamoretechni-
    calnatureandmanycoursesinalmostallcountriesto
    preparethem.However,thereislittleoferedforthe
    formationofprofessionalswithawiderandintegrated
    viewofthewatermanagementprocess.Thetrain-
    ingofprofessionalswithsuchskillsremainslargelya
    processoflearningthroughexperience.Therehave
    beenanumberofattemptsbyinternationalagen-
    cies,includingECLAC,toestablishwatermanage-
    menttrainingprogrammes,butthesehavetendedto
    beshortlived.Anumberofinstitutions,suchasthe
    TropicalAgriculturalResearchandHigherEducation
    Center(CATIE)inCostaRica,oferregularshortcours-
    estoreinforcetheworkexperienceofwatermanage-
    mentprofessions,butthesebytheirverynaturecan
    onlyoferarelativelygeneralreviewoftheknowledge
    available.Afewuniversitiesdooferprogrammes,for
    example,themastersdegreeinintegratedriverbasin
    managementattheUniversityofQuertaroinMexico
    andthesimilardegreeprogrammeattheUniversidad
    deLaPlata,Argentina.AgrowingnumberofLatin
    Americanprofessionalshavestudiedtheconceptsand
    skillsofintegratedriverbasinmanagementoutsidethe
    region,butanyregularandaccessiblemeansofob-
    tainingthenecessaryknowledgewithinthecountries
    ofLatinAmericaisstillabsent.
    32.3.2Watersupplyandsanitation
    Overthepasttwodecadestherehasbeenaslowbut
    steadyincreaseinmostcountriesofLatinAmerica
    andtheCaribbeanintheprovisionofbothdrinking
    waterandsanitation.By2008,pipedwatersupply
    wasavailabletomorethan90%oftheurbanpopula-
    tionandalmost60%oftheruralpopulation,exceed-
    ingtheMDGsattheregionallevel(WHO/UNICEF,
    2010).Theseaggregatestatistics,however,donot
    showthevariationsinthequalityoftheservices.In
    manycountries,watersupplyandsanitationser-
    vicesareplaguedbywhathasbeendenedasavi-
    ciouscircleoflowquality.Politicalinterference,poor
    managementandlowtarifsallconspiretoproduce
    lowlevelsofcoverage,lowqualityservicesandpoor
    maintenanceleadingtoconstantinterruptionsin
    supply,aswellasperiodsoflowpressureleadingto
    contaminationwithinthedrinkingwatersupplysys-
    tem.Alargenumberofwastewatertreatmentplants
    havebeenabandonedorfunctionprecariously.All
    produceahighlevelofdissatisfactioninthepopula-
    tionsserved(Corrales,2004).
    Theoverallnationalstatisticsalsohidethelargere-
    gionalvariationsinaccesswithincountries.Forex-
    ample,incentralandsouthernMexico,Hondurasand
    Nicaragua,therearemanymunicipalitieswhereless
    than10%ofthepopulationhasaccesstodrinkingwa-
    ter.Inwatersupplyandsanitation,thedenitionof
    whatconstitutesimprovedaccess,usedincompiling
    internationalstatistics,isverygeneralandlax,sothe
    publishedstatisticsprovidelittleguidancetothereal
    situationinmanycountriesoftheregion(ECLAC,1999;
    Jouravlev,2009;UnitedNations,2010).
    Undeniably,therehasbeenanexpansionofwatersup-
    plyandseweragenetworksinmostcountries,butthis
    inturnhasbroughttotheforeotherissues.
    6
    Itisesti-
    matedfortheregionasawholethatatmostonly28%
    ofsewageistreatedbeforedischarge-whichconsti-
    tutesverysignicantprogressincomparisonwiththe
    situationofonlyadecadeortwoago-leadingtoseri-
    ouscontaminationofwatercourses,includingthesea,
    frombothsewageoutfallsandindustrialdischarges
    fromurbanareas(Lentini,2008).Toooftentheintro-
    ductionofmeasurestocontrolpollutionhasproduced
    mixedresultsduetopoliticalandtechnicalcomplex-
    ity.Forexample,itisnotclearthattheintroduction
    ofchargesforwastewaterdischargesinColombiahas
    beenthesoleorthemaindeterminingfactorinreduc-
    ingwaterpollution(Box32.3).
    Thereremainmanyproblemstoberesolvedinwater
    supplyandsanitation,includingtherecurringissue
    ofthefailuretoensureadequateandsustainable-
    nancingforutilities,sothatanygainsinprovisionare
    negated,oratleastreduced,bylackofmaintenance
    andthroughlowlevelsofoperatingefciency.Lackof
    maintenanceleadstolargelossesinpipedwatersys-
    tems;forexample,inCuba,lossesindistributionare
    estimatedtoamounttoatleasthalfthewaterleaving
    thetreatmentplants(BusinessNewsAmericas,2010).
    EveninChile,fewsystemshaveunaccountedforwater
    under30%(SISS,2011).
    32.3.3Climatechangeandnaturalhazards
    AccordingtoarecentECLACstudy,between1970
    and2008extremehydro-meteorologicaleventslikely
    CHAPTER32 REGIONALREPORTS 702
    tobeexacerbatedbyclimatechange(storms,oods,
    drought,landslides,extremetemperaturesandforest
    res)costtheregionoverUS$80billion(Samaniego,
    2009).Iftheregionfailstotakeactiontomitigatethe
    impactofextremeevents,manyofwhicharewater
    related,costscouldrisetoashighasUS$250billionin
    2100or1%oftheregionalGDP(ECLAC/IDB,2010).
    Estimatesofwhatrepercussionsclimatechangemay
    haveoneconomicactivityvarywidelyanddepend
    cruciallyonfactorssuchasthediscountrateapplied
    toestimatesoffuturecosts,thesectorsconsidered,
    andthemethodologyandassumptionsusedindevel-
    opingclimatescenarios.TheIntergovernmentalPanel
    onClimateChange(IPCC)estimatesthatfreshwater
    systemsinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanarepoten-
    tiallyverysensitivetoclimatechangeandvulnerable
    tointer-annualuctuationsinclimate,suchasthose
    associatedwiththeENSOphenomenon.
    Excessrainfallisalreadyacommonproblem,particu-
    larlyinCentralAmericaandtheCaribbean,whichare
    subjecttotropicalstormandhurricaneevents.One
    specicissuethatplaguesmostlargemetropolitanar-
    easisoodingduetothelackofstormsewers,except
    intheoldercentralpartsofcities.InRiodeJaneiro,
    Brazil,morethan200peoplediedasaresultofa
    rainfallinducedlandslideinMarch2010.Butooding
    isasevereproblemeveninrelativelyatcities,such
    asBuenosAires,Argentina.Ifclimatechangeleads
    tohigherrainfallormoreconcentratedstorms,urban
    oodingcanonlybecomemorecommonandmore
    costly.
    Theabilityofwatermanagementtoreacttothechal-
    lengeofclimatechangewillbehamperedbytheinad-
    equatehydrologicalandmeteorologicalobservation
    networksofmostcountriesinLatinAmericaandthe
    Caribbean.Large,sparselyoruninhabitedareashave
    nosurfaceobservationsystems,andthedensitiesand
    operationalpracticesofexistingnetworkswhich
    wereverynegativelyafectedfollowingthe1980seco-
    nomiccrisisgenerallydonotmeettherecommended
    internationalandregionalstandards.
    32.3.4Waterpollutionandwaterquality
    Theregionhasamajordecitinwaterpollutioncon-
    trolandovercomingthisinvolvesimplementingsuc-
    cessfulinstitutionalarrangementsforthesettingof
    standards,creatingcontrolandinspectionmechanisms,
    andmobilizingsignicantnancialresources,which
    mayhavealternativesocialoreconomicdestinations.
    Thefailureisevidentinthecaseofpollutionfromur-
    banwastewaterdischargeswhereonlyaminorportion
    ofwastesaretreatedandwhereitisdifculttoplace
    emphasisonwastetreatmentwhensomanypeople
    lackconnectiontosewagesystems.Similarly,ithas
    proveddifculttoimposecontrolsonindustrialpol-
    lution,especiallyonsmallormedium-sizedindustries
    withlowlevelsoftechnologicaldevelopment.Other
    difcultiesinbuildingefectivegovernanceinwater
    pollutioncontrolincludeadministrativelimitationsfor
    dealingwithmatterssuchasmonitoringwatercourses,
    controllingandsupervisingclandestinedumps(espe-
    ciallyconcerningdischargeintoaquifers)andcontrol-
    lingdifusenon-pointsourcepollution.
    VariousregionalauthoritiesinColombiahaveuseddis-
    chargefeesformorethan30years,butitwasLaw99
    of1993thatestablishedthepresentnationaldischarge
    feesystem.Itmandatedthe33regionalenvironmental
    authorities(CARs)todevelopcomprehensiveinventories
    ofallorganicwastedischargesandtoestimatebase-
    linequantities.EachCARwastomapmajorbasinsand
    setve-yeartargetsforreductionindischargesandthen
    chargeeachpolluterafeeforeachunitdischarged.
    Despitetheefortsoftheenvironmentalministrytheim-
    plementationoftheprogrammeencounteredanumberof
    obstacles:
    OnlynineoftheCAPshadfullyimplementedthepro-
    grammeby2003andelevenhadnotevenbegunto
    collectfees
    Onaverageonlyhalfofthedischargerswerebeing
    charged
    Feecollectionrateswerelowonaverageonly
    werecollected
    1herewasconsistentnoncompliancebymunicipal
    sewageagencies,whichcausedmanybasinstobeun-
    abletomeetreductiontargets
    Evenwiththeseproblems,between1997and2003dis-
    chargesdroppedsignicantlyinmanyriverbasins.Therea-
    sonsforthisseemtohavebeentheexistingpollutioncon-
    trolsbasedonacommandandcontrolapproach;theneed
    tocataloguedischargers;thefactthattheprogramme
    demandedgreatertransparencyandaccountability;and
    thefactthattheCARskeptthefees,whichgavetheman
    economicincentivetomaketheprogrammework.
    Source: Blackman (2006).
    BOX 32.3
    TheColombianexperiencewithwastewater
    dischargefees
    WWDR4 703 LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN
    Theimplementationofwaterpollutioncontroland
    waterqualitypoliciesisanexpensiveprocess,involv-
    ingfarmorethanthedirectcontrolandregulationof
    waterpollution,and,ifwaterqualityistobeimproved,
    thefundingissuemustberesolved(Box32.4).
    32.4Thechallengeahead
    Thegreatestchallengeforwatermanagementin
    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeaniswithoutany
    doubttocontinuetoimproveoverallgovernance.
    Theneedsaremany,includingestablishingaclear
    separationofpolicyandregulatoryactivitiesfrom
    day-to-dayoperations,improvingincentivesfor
    efciency,formalizingwaterinstitutions,strengthening
    theiroperationalcapacity,improvingmanagement
    training,adoptinggreatertransparencyindecision-
    making,anddevelopingbettersystemsforconict
    resolutionthroughacleardeliberativeframework
    whileincreasingtheparticipationofstakeholdersin
    managementdecisions.
    Amongthemajordriversorexogenousfactorsthatwill
    conditionchallengesinwatermanagement,thewater
    sectorcanonlyhopetoinuencedirectlyitsweight
    inthedenitionandimplementationofnationalde-
    velopmentstrategies.Theothersarelikelytoremain
    beyondanydirectinuencefromwatermanagement
    institutions.Thewatersectormustcontinuallyadjust
    totakingthesemajorexternaldriversintoaccountas
    itdeneswaterstrategies,andmakeamaximumcon-
    tributiontomorerationaleconomicpoliciesandtothe
    improvementofinstitutionalquality,governanceand
    transparencywhilereducingcorruption.
    Challengesdonotendwithbeingpreparedtotackle
    themostsignicantexternaldrivers.Thereisagreat
    dealtobedonetoimprovemanagementandgov-
    ernancewithinthewaterboxitselfbutthereareno
    simpleanduniversalwaystodothis.Onelimitation
    thatallwatermanagementsystemsseemtoshareis
    anotoriouslackofoperationalcapacity,duetoava-
    rietyoffactors,includingthewell-recognizedlimited
    nancial,legalandhumanresourcesand,toooften,
    thelackofimportancegiventotheroleofregula-
    tionandmanagementinwaterresourcepolicies.For
    example,arecentarticleonirrigationmanagementin
    LatinAmericaconcludedthatlargeamountsofwater
    areinefcientlysuppliedtofarmersbecausetheright
    toolsarenotavailableforirrigationmanagersthat
    allowthemtoschedulewaterdeliveriesandsatisfy
    cropwaterrequirementsinanefectiveway
    (deOliveiraetal,2009,p.13).
    Oneemergingissueistheneedforthemanagement
    oftransboundarywaterresources.Fewoftheriver
    basinsthataresharedhaveformalagreementsthat
    regulatetheiruseoractiveinstitutionstofocusonis-
    suesarisingfromthissituation.Inthecaseofground-
    water,thecountriessharingtheimmenseGuarani
    Aquifer(Argentina,Brazil,Paraguay,Uruguay),have
    recentlyenteredintoabindingagreementregulating
    somekeyaspectsofmanagementandprotectionof
    thisresource,settinganunprecedentedexampleat
    thegloballevel.
    Thesizeofthechallengesahead,however,shouldnot
    deterwatermanagersfromconfrontingthemand
    makingeveryeforttofurtherstrengthenmanage-
    mentwithinthesector.Therehavebeenanumberof
    interestingexperiencesintheregionoverthepast
    fewdecadesregardingtheestablishmentofwater
    institutionsoutsidesectorministries.Forexample,in
    Mexico,waterresourcesaremanagedbytheNational
    WaterCommission(CONAGUA)andinBrazil,the
    NationalWaterAgency(ANA)wassetupin2000
    withtheprincipalobjectiveofachievingthesustain-
    ableuseofwaterbyovercomingtraditionalconicts
    andlimitationsimposedbyasysteminwhichwa-
    terhadbeenundertheresponsibilityoffunctional
    ministries.Otherexamplesofinstitutionsthatare
    notlinkedtospecicsectorsofwateruseinclude
    theMinistryofEnvironment,HousingandTerritorial
    DevelopmentinColombia,theWaterResources
    AuthorityinJamaica,theMinistryofEnvironmentand
    NaturalResourcesinVenezuela,andtheGeneralWater
    DirectorateoftheMinistryofPublicWorksinChile.
    ThetotalinvestmentinsanitationinfrastructureinChile
    between1999and2008hasbeenestimatedatmorethan
    US$2.8billioninthewatersupplyandsanitationsector
    aloneinadditiontohugeinvestmentsinindustrialpol-
    lutioncontrolandseparatedstormdrainagenetworks.
    Theinvestmentcanbeestimatedtoequatetomorethan
    US$2,000percapita.Yetevenbefore1999,theprovision
    ofsanitationinChilewasabovetheregionalaverage.
    Source: Yarur (2009).
    BOX 32.4
    InvestmentinsanitationinfrastructureinChile
    CHAPTER32 REGIONALREPORTS 704
    Theseinitiativesprovideexamplesofattemptsatre-
    forminwatermanagement.However,itwouldbea
    mistaketothinkthatcomplexproblemscanbere-
    solvedonlybytop-downinitiatives,throughthemere
    creationofneworganizations,orbyextrapolating
    fromtheexperienceofefectivelegislationandor-
    ganizationalstructuresthatwereachievedelsewhere
    onlyafterasignicantefortofcoordinationandca-
    pacitybuilding.Oneofthemostpowerfulistointro-
    ducechargesforwateruseorforwastedisposal.The
    impositionofchargeshasbeenapartofreformsin
    anumberofcountries,includingthroughtheANAin
    Brazil,theCARsinColombiaandCONAGUAinMexico.
    Oneinterestingnewproposalisthetrustfundestab-
    lishedforwaterconservationandprotectioninQuito,
    Ecuador(FONAG).TheideabehindFONAGistocre-
    ateasystemofpaymentforenvironmentalservices
    tobeplacedinacapitalfundforwaterprotection
    (ECLAC,2009a).
    Ifreformistobeplacedonthepoliticalagendaitis
    notsufcienttohaveproposalsthataresupported
    onlybyexpertsitisessentialthatanyinitiativehave
    thewidestpublicsupport.Thismeansopeningup
    decision-makingprocessestowideparticipation
    amongstakeholders,butthishastobedoneina
    meaningfulmannersoasnottodrownthepossibil-
    ityofreachingdecisions.Mechanisms,asproposedin
    muchrecentlegislation,shouldbedevelopedwithin
    thewatersectortoallowthecreationofaconsensus
    onthedirectiontobefollowed.Ifsuchaconsensus
    doesnotexist,notrueclimateofcondencecanbe
    createdforreformandanyproposedreform,oreven
    adoptedlegislation,willneverproduceresults.The
    challengeistoopenwatermanagementtosocietyas
    awhole.Indoingsothewatersectorcanbuildonits
    previousachievementstocontinuetomakeasustain-
    ablecontributiontothebettermentofsocietyinall
    countriesofLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.

    Notes
    1 TheWorldBankhadnoactiveloansforlargedamsinLatin
    AmericaandtheCaribbeanintherstdecadeofthetwenty-
    rstcentury(IndependentEvaluationGroup,2010).
    2 TheobjectiveofthereformsinBrazilistoestablishautonomous
    riverbasinagenciesthatwillhavebothstakeholder
    representationandtheirownsourcesofrevenuesfromcharges
    forbulkwaterabstraction.However,therestrictedlegalnature
    oftheriverbasinagencieshashinderedtheintroductionof
    charginginmoststates(PortoandKelman,2000).
    3 ECLACestimatesthatinUruguay,ChileandCostaRica60%or
    moreofthepopulationisnotvulnerabletopovertythatis,
    theyhaveincomes1.8timesthepovertylevelandanumberof
    othercountrieshaveoverhalftheirpopulationwiththislevelof
    income(ECLAC,2009c,p.35).
    4 ThereisstrongoppositioninChile,withwideinternational
    support,tothebuildingofhydroelectricitygenerationplantson
    theRoBakeranditstributariesinChileanPatagonia,apopular
    areaforadventuretourism(ChileanPatagoniaWithoutDams!,
    http://www.patagoniasinrepresas.cl/nal/)
    5 In2007,98.6%ofbiofuelproductioninLatinAmericaandthe
    CaribbeanwasinBrazil(OLADE,2008).

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    UNESCWA

    AuthorsCarolChouchaniCherfaneandSungEunKim
    ContributorsJulieAbouarabandHananAtallah
    CHAPTER 33
    Arab region and Western Asia
    Shutterstock/AleksandarTodorovic

    The Arab region is facing multiple water challenges due to population growth, food security,
    overconsumption of water resources, climate change, extreme weather events, damage to
    water infrastructure caused by regional conicts, and risks posed by the potential for conict
    over shared water resources.
    Arab countries have responded to these challenges by improving water resources
    management, increasing access to water supply and sanitation services, strengthening
    resilience and preparedness, and expanding the use of non-conventional water resources.
    However, these measures are insufcient to overcome water scarcity constraints facing most
    countries in the region.
    33.1Regionaldevelopments
    The22countriesoftheArabregion,
    1
    whichincludethe
    14memberstatesoftheUnitedNationsEconomicand
    SocialCommissionforWesternAsia(ESCWA),
    2
    are
    amongthemostwater-scarcecountriesintheworld.
    Atleast12Arabcountriessuferfromacutewater
    scarcitywithlessthan500m
    3
    ofrenewablewaterre-
    sourcesavailablepercapitaperyear(FAO,2011).Arab
    countriesthatarerelativelybetterendowedwithwater
    resourcesareeitherleastdevelopedcountriesorcoun-
    triesincrisis.
    WhiletheArabregionhaslongsuferedfromwater
    scarcity,severaldriversandchallengeshaveincreased
    strainsonfreshwaterresourcesoverrecentdecades,
    includingpopulationgrowth,migration,changingcon-
    sumptionpatterns,regionalconicts,climatechange
    andgovernance.Thesepressureshaveincreasedrisks
    anduncertaintyassociatedwithwaterquantityand
    quality,aswellastherealizationofpoliciesseek-
    ingtopromoteruraldevelopmentandfoodsecurity
    objectives.
    Inrecognitionofthesechallenges,andtheneedtoad-
    dresstheminacoordinatedandregionalmanner,Arab
    governmentsestablishedtheArabMinisterialWater
    Council(AMWC)undertheauspicesoftheLeague
    ofArabStates.AtitsrstsessioninJune2009,the
    AMWCrespondedtotherequestofheadsofstate
    convenedattheArabEconomicandSocialSummit
    (Kuwait,January2009)toprepareanArabstrategyto
    helpconfrontcurrentandfuturechallengesneededto
    ensurewatersecurityandsustainabledevelopmentin
    theregion.
    TheresultingArabWaterSecurityStrategy(2010
    2030)wasadoptedinJune2011andproposesaseries
    ofmeasurestorespondtothesechallenges,andis
    complementedbyasetofimplementationprojectsfo-
    cusedonwateruseefciency,non-conventionalwater
    resources,climatechange,integratedwaterresources
    management,andwatersecurity.Arabcountriesare
    alsoseekingtoreducerisksatthenationallevelbyde-
    velopingwatersectorstrategies,incorporatingwater
    considerationsintonationaldevelopmentplans,pursu-
    inginstitutionalandlegalreforms,andaddressingun-
    certaintiesrelatedtothemanagementofsharedwater
    resources.
    Thischapterexaminessomeofthedriversandchal-
    lengesraisedintheArabWaterSecurityStrategyin
    viewofidentifyingtherisksanduncertaintiesthey
    poseforthemanagementofwaterresources,and
    elaboratesonselectedresponsemeasuresandap-
    proachesadoptedtoovercomethesechallengesinthe
    Arabregion.
    33.2Drivers
    33.2.1Demographics,migrationandurbanization
    ThetotalpopulationoftheArabregionstoodat
    352millionin2009,anditisexpectedtoreach
    461millionby2025(UNESCWA,2009a).Rapidpopu-
    lationgrowthforthelastafewdecadeshasincreased
    thedemandforfreshwateraswellaswaterstress
    inurbanandruralareas.Over55%oftheregions
    populationlivesincities,withrural-to-urbanmigra-
    tiontrendsobservedinEgypt,Lebanon,Morocco,the
    SyrianArabRepublicandTunisia(UNDESA,2007)
    largelyduetoreducedincomeandemploymentop-
    portunitiesintheagriculturalsectorandtheburgeon-
    ingyouthdemographic.Tostemthistide,Arabgov-
    ernmentshavepursuedrurallivelihoodspoliciesthat
    linkagriculturalproductiontoruraldevelopment,even
    thoughthishasskewedtheallocationofwaterre-
    sourcestotheagriculturalsectorinmostoftheregion.
    Demandforwaterserviceshasalsogrowninurban
    centresfrommigrationassociatedwitheconomicde-
    velopmentandthemovementofdisplacedpersons
    duetoregionalconicts,whileadequatewaterservic-
    esarenotprovidedinseveralcountriesfacinginter-
    mittentwatersupplies(Box33.1).DisplacedIraqisled
    toanunanticipatedspikeinnewhousingdevelopment
    inJordanandtheSyrianArabRepublic,andincreased
    pressuresonalreadystrainedwaternetworksand
    freshwaterresources.Interregionalandintraregion-
    allabourmigrationtootherwisesparselypopulated
    countriesoftheGulfCooperationCouncil(GCC)isin-
    uencingwatersupplyandsanitationdecision-making,
    particularlyinviewoftheaggressiveinvestmentsbe-
    ingmadetostimulateeconomicgrowth.
    Additionally,mosturbanizationintheArabregionis
    concentratedalongthecoastline,whichisvulnerable
    tooods,sealevelrise,andsaltwaterintrusioninto
    coastalaquifers.Urbanizationisfuellingsettlement
    inreclaimeddeserts,expandedcoastlinesandurban
    peripheries,withnewsatellitecitiesemergingaround
    Cairo,AbuDhabiandalongtheRedSea.Thishasin-
    creasedpublicandprivatesectorinvestmentinnon-
    conventionalwaterresources,particularlydesalination,
    toensureadequateaccesstowater.
    REGIONALREPORTS 708 CHAPTER33
    WWDR4 709 ARABREGIONANDWESTERNASIA
    33.2.2Waterconsumptiontrends
    WaterconsumptionlevelsinESCWAcountriesislarge-
    lytiedtogrossdomesticproduct(GDP),asillustrated
    inFigure33.1,althoughthisisonlypossibleduetothe
    heavyrelianceondesalination.Inotherpartsofthe
    Arabregion,waterconsumptionislargelytiedtothe
    agriculturalsector,whichonlycontributesmarginally
    toGDP.
    DomesticwaterdemandinGCCcountriesissigni-
    cantandincreasing,largelyduetochanginglifestyles
    resultingfromhigheconomicgrowthrates,prolifera-
    tionofrealestatedevelopmentprojects,andavail-
    abilityofenergyfordesalination.Meanwhile,tourism
    growthiscreatingseasonalpeaksinwaterdemand
    intheGulfandArabMediterraneancountries.The
    EnvironmentalAgencyofAbuDhabireportsthatthe
    UnitedArabEmirateswaterusageis24timesgreater
    thanitstotalannualrenewablewaterresourceavaila-
    bility(AlBowardi,2010).WhileDubaisignalledin2011
    thattherewouldbenochangestoitswaterorelectric-
    itytarifsinthecomingyears,graduatedwatertarifs
    havebeeninstitutedinJordanandTunisia,andrevi-
    sionstotarifschedulesareunderwayinEgyptand
    Lebanontostemexcessconsumptionandgenerate
    revenuetoimprovewaterservices.
    Agriculturalwaterconsumptionischaracterized
    bylowproductivityintheregion,whiledrought
    hasplaguedagriculturalheartlandsinrecentyears.
    Irrigatedagriculturehasledtotheexploitationof
    deepergroundwaterresourcesatacosttosustain-
    abilityandincome.Small-scalefarmersinSouth
    Lebanonpumpgroundwaterfromadepthofover
    350mtoirrigatepatchesoflandthathavebecome
    parchedfromshiftsandreductionsinseasonalpre-
    cipitationpatterns;46.5%ofgrossrevenuesareal-
    locatedtocoverthecostofdieseltooperatepumps,
    whichhasreducednetincomeinruralareasnotcon-
    nectedtoirrigationnetworks(UNESCWA,2010a).
    Increasedexploitationofnon-renewableaquifer
    systemsisalsowitnessedintheDisiAquifer,shared
    byJordanandSaudiArabia,aswellasintheNorth
    WesternSaharaAquiferSystem,sharedbyAlgeria,
    LibyaandTunisiawhere80%ofwithdrawalsare
    usedforagriculturalpurposes(SaharaandSahel
    Observatory,2011).Thisisraisingconcernsaboutthe
    depletionoffossilaquifers,andthetrade-ofsto
    considerwhenbalancingfoodsecurity,foodself-
    sufciency,regionalcooperationandruraldevelop-
    mentpriorities.
    33.2.3RegionalconictsandtheArabSpring
    Cyclesofconictmanifestedbyinstability,civilstrife,
    warandoccupationhavecharacterizedtheArabre-
    gionfordecades.Thishasgeneratedlargenumbers
    ofinternallydisplacedpersonsandincreasedmigra-
    tionatnationalandregionallevels.Asaresult,36%
    ofdisplacedpersonsintheworldarenowfoundin
    theESCWAregion(UNESCWA,2009c),imposingad-
    ditionaldemandsonwaternetworksandonalready
    strainedfreshwaterresources.Forinstance,mostof
    AccordingtotheWorldHealthOrganizationandUnited
    NationsChildrensFundJointMonitoringProgramme
    (WHO/UNICEFJMP)forWaterSupplyandSanitation,
    Arabcountriesaregenerallyontracktomeetthe
    MillenniumDevelopmentGoal(MDG)targetsonwater
    supplyandsanitation,withtheexceptionoftheregions
    leastdevelopedcountriesandcountriesinconict.
    However,eldassessmentsrevealthattheseguresdo
    notadequatelyreectthatstateofaccesstowaterservic-
    esintheregion.Forinstance,whileaccesstoanimproved
    watersourceinJordanandLebanonisreportedtobe
    100%and96%respectively(WHO/UNICEFJMPforWater
    SupplyandSanitation,2010),manyconsumersonlyre-
    ceivewateronceortwiceaweekandrelyheavilyonbot-
    tledwaterandthedeliveryofwaterthroughtankertrucks
    tomeetbasicneeds.Palestinianachievementstowards
    theMDGtargetsarenowmitigatedbydamage,destruc-
    tionandtheinabilitytoinstallormaintainwaterinfra-
    structureduetotheongoingconictandIsraelisecurity
    restrictions(WorldBank,2009).
    TheArabMinisterialWaterCouncil(AMWC)accord-
    inglymandatedtheUnitedNationsEconomicandSocial
    CommissionforWesternAsia(ESCWA)toestablisha
    regionalmechanismtoidentifyandreportonthetwo
    MDG7targetsandanadditionalsetofwatersupply
    andsanitationindicatorstodeterminetheactualquan-
    tityandqualityofwaterservicesavailableintheArab
    region.ESCWAisimplementingthisMDG+initiativein
    collaborationwiththeArabCountriesWaterUtilities
    Association(ACWUA),theArabWaterCouncil(AWC),
    theCenterforEnvironmentandDevelopmentintheArab
    Region(CEDARE),theArabNetworkforEnvironmentand
    Development(RAED),andWHO,withsupportprovided
    bytheSwedishInternationalDevelopmentCooperation
    Agency(SIDA).
    BOX 33.1
    AccesstoWaterSupplyandSanitationintheArab
    Region
    REGIONALREPORTS 710 CHAPTER33
    IraqstwomillionrefugeesfoundsafehaveninJordan
    andtheSyrianArabRepublic,althoughAmmanand
    Damascusalreadysuferfromhighratesofunac-
    counted-forwaterandintermittentwatersupplies.
    CripplingdroughtinSomalialedtoaoodofrefu-
    geesintoneighbouringcountries,includingDjibouti
    andYemen,despitecivilstrifeinYemenandprojec-
    tionsthatSanaawillbecometherstcapitalcityin
    theworldtorundry.Womenandchildrenareamong
    themostvulnerableinSudansinternallydisplaced
    communities,andarenotabletoaccesscleanwater
    despitethewealthoffreshwaterresourcesinSudan
    anditssouthernneighbours.
    Ongoingconictsandinstabilityarealsoreversing
    progresstowardswatersupplyandsanitationtar-
    gets.Forinstance,despitebeingoncethemostwater-
    andoil-richcountriesintheregion,Iraqexperienced
    watershortagesindisplacementcamps(IRIN,2007)
    andwaterservicesremainintermittentinurbancen-
    tresandperipheries.Reducedsurfacewaterowsin
    theTigris,Euphrates,KarounandKarkehriversfrom
    growingdemandanddiversionsupstreaminIraq,the
    IslamicRepublicofIran,theSyrianArabRepublicand
    Turkeyhaveincreasedsaltwaterintrusionthrough
    theShattal-Arabandreducedfreshwateroutows
    totheGulf(UNESCWA-BGR,2012).Thishasafected
    watersupplyinBasrawherewatersalinityevenaf-
    terltrationnowexceedsdrinkingwaterstandards.
    IncreasingsalinityintheGulfalsoafectsdesalina-
    tionoperationsandsheries,andmaycontributeto
    renewedtensionsbetweenIraq,Kuwaitandnearby
    countries.
    Waterinfrastructureisalsodamagedordestroyed
    byviolentconicts.Israelcutofwatersuppliesto
    Beirutduringthesiegeof1982,whileIraqdestroyed
    muchofKuwaitsdesalinationcapacityasitwith-
    drewfromKuwaitin1991.Adamageassessmentafter
    the2006IsraeliofensiveintoLebanonestimated
    US$80millionworthofdamagetothewatersector
    (CouncilforDevelopmentandReconstruction,2006).
    TheongoingblockadeoftheGazaStriphaspre-
    ventedtheentryofmaterialsandexpertiseneeded
    tomaintainwaterpumpsandinstallations,andisaf-
    fectingtheabilityofdonorstoinvestinanewdesa-
    linizationplantthatisconsideredastrategicproject
    forcooperationbytheUnionfortheMediterranean.
    FIGURE 33.1
    Domesticwaterconsumptionrelativetogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)percapita
    0 100
    Yemen
    Jordan
    Palestine
    Oman
    SaudiArabia
    Egypt
    Syria
    Lebanon
    UAE
    Kuwait
    Qatar
    Bahrain
    Iraq
    Sudan
    200 300 400 500 600 700
    $80,000
    $70,000
    $60,000
    $50,000
    $40,000
    $30,000
    $20,000
    $10,000
    $0
    GDPpercapita($PPP)
    Domesticwaterconsumption(litres/capita/day)
    Source: UNESCWA (2009b, p. 7), based on data on domestic water consumption from FAO AQUASTAT and GDP per capita data from the United
    Nations Population Division.
    WWDR4 711 ARABREGIONANDWESTERNASIA
    Meanwhile,Palestinianrefugeesarescatteredin
    campsthroughouttheregionwithinadequatewa-
    tersupplyandsanitation,andlimitedprospectfor
    improvement.
    Concurrently,thepublicuprisingsthathaveswept
    throughtheArabregionsinceDecember2010ofer
    opportunitiestorevisitwatergovernancestructures
    andfostergreaterconsultationatthecommunity
    level.Whilearelativelyrecentphenomenondriving
    changeintheregion,governmentofcialsinTunisia
    andEgyptarealreadyengagingwithwateruseras-
    sociationsandlocalconstituenciesinreneweddia-
    logueaimedatfosteringgreaterpublicparticipation
    inplanninganddecision-makingrelatedtothewater
    sector.
    33.3Challenges,risksanduncertainties
    Fourmajorchallengesafectwaterresourcesman-
    agementintheArabregion:waterscarcity,depend-
    encyonsharedwaterresources,climatechangeand
    foodsecurity.Financialandtechnicalconstraints,
    aswellaspooraccesstoandavailabilityofreliable
    dataandinformationonwaterqualityandquan-
    tityarecross-cuttingfactorsthatincreaserisks
    anduncertaintyassociatedwithmanagingthese
    challenges.
    33.3.1Waterscarcity
    NearlyallArabcountriescanbecharacterizedas
    water-scarce,whilethoseformallyendowedwithrich
    waterresourceshaveseentheirtotalannualpercapita
    shareofrenewablewaterresourcesdropbyhalfover
    thepastfourdecades(Figure33.2).Thisdeclining
    trendpresentsthemostsignicantchallengetothe
    watersectorintheArabregion.
    Water quantity
    Astheavailabilityoffreshwaterresourcesintheregion
    hasbecomescarcerrelativetoitspopulation,efcient
    andintegratedmanagementofwaterresourceshas
    becomemorecritical.Risksanduncertaintiesassociat-
    edwiththemanagementofsurfaceandgroundwater
    resourcesmustthusbeconsideredjointlyandbased
    onlocalcircumstances.Forinstance,countrieswith
    FIGURE 33.2
    RenewablewaterresourcesintheArabregionpercapita
    Note: *Area covering South Sudan and Sudan.
    Source: Based on FAO AQUASTAT data (2011).
    1977 1987 1997 2009
    9,000
    8,000
    7,000
    6,000
    5,000
    4,000
    3,000
    2,000
    1,000
    0
    m
    3
    perpersonperyear
    Mauritania
    Iraq
    Comoros
    Somalia
    Sudan*
    Lebanon
    Morocco
    Syria
    Egypt
    Oman
    Tunisia
    Djibouti
    Algeria
    Palestine
    Jordan
    Bahrain
    Libya
    Yemen
    SaudiArabia
    Qatar
    UAE
    Kuwait
    CHAPTER33 REGIONALREPORTS 712
    perennialriversinwhichsurfacewaterconstitutesthe
    primaryconventionalsourceforfreshwaterandover
    70%oftherenewablewaterresourcesincludeEgypt,
    Iraq,LebanonandSudan(FAO,AQUASTAT,2011).In
    otherArabcountries,groundwaterconstitutesatleast
    one-thirdofthetotalvolumeobtainedfromconven-
    tionalsources,butsurfacewaterremainstheprimary
    sourceoffreshwater,suchasinOman,SaudiArabia,
    UAEandYemen;ironicallythesefourwater-scarce
    countriesarealsocharacterizedbyintermittentriv-
    ers,orwadisystems,andaresubjecttoseasonalash
    oods.Somecountriesarethusconsideringwaysto
    rechargeaquiferswiththeseoodwaterstoincrease
    thequantityofwateravailableduringdryperiods.
    Assurfacewaterscannolongersatisfywaterneedsin
    somepartsoftheregion,theextractionofgroundwa-
    terhasincreasedandisthreateningthesustainabilityof
    manynationalandsharedaquifersystemsandincreas-
    ingtheriskofconict(UNESCWA,2007a).However,as
    somegroundwaterresourcesarenon-renewable,their
    veryusechallengesframeworksthatseektheirsus-
    tainablemanagement.Anintegratedmanagement
    frameworkisnecessarywhereconventionalandnon-
    conventionalapproachesareappliedtoaddresswater
    scarcityconstraintsintheregion.Non-renewableshared
    aquifersthatincludefossilwaterincludetheNubian
    SandstoneAquifersharedbyChad,EgyptandLibya;
    theNorthWesternSaharaAquifersharedbyAlgeria,
    LibyaandTunisia;andtheBasaltAquiferunderlying
    JordanandSaudiArabia.Additionaldeepnon-
    renewableaquifersunderlieKuwait,IraqandSaudi
    Arabia;IraqandJordan;andIraqandtheSyrianArab
    Republic(UNESCWA,2009d).
    Water quality
    Diferencesinfreshwaterregimesinuencethere-
    sponsepatternsofgovernmentstowater-scarcecon-
    ditionsandhowcountriesconsiderwaterqualitya
    priority.Coastalaquifersposeamajorchallengefor
    manyArabcountriesduetoseawaterintrusionresult-
    ingfromover-pumpingofgroundwaterfordomestic
    oragriculturaluse.Thisisevidentalongthenorthern
    coastofEgypt,theLebanesecoastline,intheGaza
    Stripandaroundseveralcoastalcitiesalongtheeast-
    ernGulf.Sealevelriseisexpectedtoincreasestresses
    oncoastalaquifersandriveroutlets,suchastheNile
    DeltaandattheShattAl-Arab,increasingthesalinity
    ofthesefreshwaterresources.
    Pesticidesandfertilizersmixedwithagricultural
    runofarecontaminatingsurfaceandgroundwater
    resourcesinruralandperi-urbanareas,andhave
    evenbecomeasourceofcontentioninsomeshared
    surfacewatersystemsintheregion,suchasbetween
    TurkeyandtheSyrianArabRepublic.Post-harvest
    processesassociatedwithagro-industries,garments
    production(leathertanneriesandtextiles)and
    domesticsewagepollutesurfaceandgroundwater
    resourcesthroughouttheregion.Forinstance,river
    disposalofoliveresidues(Lebanon),sugarbeet
    pulp(MoroccoandtheSyrianArabRepublic)and
    sugarcane(Egypt,Sudan)increasesbiological
    oxygendemand(BOD)levelsandeutrophicationof
    someinlandwaterbodiescausingshkills.Nutrient
    pollutionfromsewagehasreducedshstocksin
    LakeTunisinNorthernTunisia(Harbridgeetal.,
    2007).UntreatedefuentsreleasedinCairohave
    afectedaquacultureandagricultureintheNile
    Delta.Oilproductionpollutesfreshwaterresources
    intheregion,althoughmarineecosystemsaremore
    frequentlyafectedbyoilspills.
    Watershedprotectionandmanagementchallenges
    areexacerbatedbyunregulatedurbandevelopment,
    poorsanitationandsewageinfrastructure,andthe
    rapiditywithwhichurbanexpansionistakingplace.
    Inadequateurbanplanningandenforcementfuelledby
    bifurcatedwatergovernancestructuresandoverlap-
    pingjurisdictionalmandatesbetweenministriesand
    municipalbodiesinvolvedinpermitting,testingand
    compliancecontributetothedifcultyofprotecting
    waterresourcesintheregion.
    33.3.2Dependencyonsharedwaterresources
    Abigchallengetowaterresourcesmanagementinthe
    Arabregionisthatthemajorinternationalriversys-
    temsintheregionaresharedbytwoormorecoun-
    tries.Thechallengeismagniedwhereinstitutional
    regimesarenotinplacetoreducetheriskanduncer-
    taintyassociatedwiththemanagementandalloca-
    tionofwaterresourcesunderwater-scarceconditions
    atthebasinlevel.Themajorsharedsurfacewater
    systemsintheregionincludethe(a)Tigrisandthe
    Euphratesriverbasin,sharedbytheIslamicRepublic
    ofIran,Iraq,theSyrianArabRepublicandTurkey;
    (b)Orontes(orAl-Assi)river,sharedbyLebanon,the
    SyrianArabRepublicandTurkey;(c)Jordan(includ-
    ingtheYarmouk)river,sharedbyJordan,Lebanon,
    theOccupiedPalestinianTerritory,theSyrianArab
    RepublicandIsrael;(d)Nileriverbasincovering
    WWDR4 713 ARABREGIONANDWESTERNASIA
    11countries,ofwhichEgyptandSudanareArab
    States;(e)SenegalRiverwithfourripariancountries,
    includingGuinea,Mali,MauritaniaandSenegal;and
    (f)LakeChad,witheightripariancountriesnamely
    Algeria,Cameroon,CentralAfricanRepublic,Chad,
    Libya,Niger,NigeriaandSudan.
    TheArabWaterSecurityStrategyestimatesthat66%
    ofsurfacewaterresourcesintheArabregionorigi-
    natesoutsideoftheregionandentersthroughthe
    Euphrates,Nile,SenegalandTigrisrivers.Thishas
    becomeattimesasourceofpoliticalconictwiththe
    upstreamcountries.Therearealsomanysmallersur-
    facewaterresources(rivers,streams,seasonalspate
    ows)thatcrossintotheregionandbetweenArab
    countriesonaregularandintermittentbasis,which
    havesparkedlocalizeddisputesregardingwaterre-
    sourcesandfuelledbordertensions.Forinstance,
    reducedowsfromintermittentriversoriginatingin
    theIslamicRepublicofIranafectbordercommuni-
    tiesandagricultureineasternIraq.ManyArabcoun-
    trieshavethusturnedtogroundwatertocomplement
    dwindlingdomesticfreshwatersuppliesandincrease
    waterforirrigationanddevelopment.However,with
    shallowaquifersunderthreatoftotalexploitation,
    countriesareexploringpossibilitiestodevelopdeep-
    erandfartheraquifers,which,inmanycases,arepart
    ofmoreextensiveregionalcross-boundaryaquifer
    systems.
    Additionally,waterconictscanalsoexistatthesub-
    nationallevelbetweenadministrativedistricts,com-
    munitiesandtribes.Tensionsemergeinwater-scarce
    environmentsandstakeholderswithcompeting
    interests,whicharethenmanifestedthroughlocallevel
    conicts,suchasinYemen(Box33.2).
    Inrecognitionoftheimportanceofreducingcon-
    ict,countriesintheregionhavetriedtoconclude
    internationalagreementsandestablishsharedwater
    resourcesinstitutions.However,despiteefortstoes-
    tablishformalagreements,thosethatexistrequirein-
    creasedcapacityandimprovedinstitutionalandlegal
    frameworkstosupporttheintegratedmanagementof
    sharedwaterresources,particularlywhenpoliticalwill
    andcommitmentsareabsentorinsufcient.Prevailing
    politicaltensionsandongoingconictsalsofrustrate
    efortstocollaborateatthetechnicallevel.Forin-
    stance,despiteyearsofefortstostrengthencoop-
    erationintheNileRiverbasin,countrieshavefailedto
    reachagreementonacommonmanagementscheme.
    TheestablishmentoftheRepublicofSouthSudanin
    July2011increasesto11thenumberofcountriesre-
    quiringagreementonthissharedresource.
    However,whilewaterscarcityandongoingconicts
    arekeydriversinuencingsharedwaterresources
    management,opportunitiesforcollaborationcanstill
    emerge.Forinstance,thedivergentinterestsofripar-
    iancountriesintheSenegalRiverbasinallowedfor
    constructivecompromise,mutualbenetsandthe
    preventionofapotentialconict.Theresultingestab-
    lishmentoftheOrganizationfortheDevelopmentof
    theSenegalRiverin1972,theadoptionoftheSenegal
    RiverCharterin2002,andthetie-intoanancing
    mechanismforensuringthegenerationofrevenues
    andbenetsamongthefourbasincountrieshasre-
    inforcedcondenceincooperationandgeneratedin-
    comeandenergyfordevelopment.
    33.3.3Climatechangeandclimatevariability
    Althoughclimatechangeisaglobalphenomenon,its
    impactsarefeltdiferentlythroughouttheworld.The
    Arabregionisparticularlysensitivetoclimatechange
    andvariabilityasitalreadysufersfromwaterscar-
    city;smallchangesinclimatepatternscanthusresult
    indramaticimpactsontheground.Climatescenarios
    predictanincreaseintemperatureintheregion,which
    severalimpactassessmentsexpecttocontributeto
    increasedaridity,lowersoilhumidity,higherevapora-
    tiontranspirationratesandshiftsinseasonalrainfall
    patterns.Reducedsnowfallandsnowmeltispro-
    jectedintheHighAtlasMountainsandAnti-Lebanon
    Mountains.Reducedsurfacewaterrunofandsea
    levelriseisexpectedtoreducegroundwaterrecharge
    WithacutewaterscarcityinSanaaandTaiz,accessto
    waterhasbecomeanissueofsurvival.
    Stressesonthedeliveryofwaterservicecomefromwater
    scarcity,thedependentrelationshipbetweenwaterand
    energyresourcesforservicedelivery,internalstrifemani-
    festedinurbanruraldivides,andtensionsoverscarce
    resources.Challengesinbalancingsocio-economic
    prioritieswithsustainablewaterallocationfortheagri-
    culturalsectorcomplicatedecision-makinginthisleast
    developedcountryunderconict.
    Source: UNESCWA (2010b).
    BOX 33.2
    WaterconictsinYemen
    CHAPTER33 REGIONALREPORTS 714
    Droughtalsocontributestoincreasedlanddegrada-
    tionanddesertication,whichisaregionalphenom-
    enonpoignantlywitnessedinMauritaniawhenitfaced
    repeatedcyclesofdroughtduringthe1960s,1970s
    and1980s.DamserectedalongtheSenegalRiver
    helpedmitigatetheefectsofdroughtandintroduce
    morecertaintyinwateravailabilityfordevelopment.
    Nevertheless,droughtintheSahelregionin2009and
    2010hasreducedwateravailabilityforagricultureand
    againincreasedfoodinsecuritylevelsinMauritania
    (CILSSetal.,2010).
    Floods and extreme events
    Extremeweathereventshaveincreasedintheregion,
    includinggreaterfrequencyandintensityofood-
    ing.InJanuary2010,heavyrainfallcausedashoods
    inEgyptintheSinaiPeninsula,Hurghada,andAswan
    alongtheRedSearesultingin12deaths,theevacua-
    tionofover3,500peopleandthedestructionofelec-
    tricitytowers,telephonelinesandroads(DREFopera-
    tion,2010).Thesamestormcausedoodinginthe
    areaofWadiGazaintheGazaStrip,wheretheoods
    cutofroadsandthebridgeconnectingGazaCitywith
    southernpartsoftheGazaStrip,causingastateof
    emergency.
    Cycloneactivityisalsointensifyingintheregion.
    Thethreestrongesttropicalcyclonesrecordedin
    theArabianSeahaveoccurredsince2001(Gulfnews,
    2010).SuperCyclonicStormGonuwasthestrongest
    andhitOman,YemenandSomaliainAugust2007.
    Stormsurgescausedcoastaldamageandwadi
    oodingasrainfallreached610mm;thehighwater
    markpeakedatRasalHaddattheeasterntipof
    Omanandexceeded5minwhatisnormallyan
    aridarea.Thecycloneresultedinanestimated
    US$4billionworthofdamageandatleast49deaths,
    andisconsideredtheworstnaturaldisasterinthe
    historyofOman.SaudiArabiasufereddevastating
    oodsinJeddahinNovember2009whichkilled
    100peopleandcausedmortalitiesinRabighand
    Mecca(BBCNews,2009).Yemenhasbeenexperi-
    encinglandslidesandrockslidescausedbyincreas-
    inglyintensiveseasonalashoodeventsthrough
    mountainousvalleys.
    Thesehigh-consequenceoodeventsarenotonlydue
    totheincreasingintensityofrainfalls,butalsotothe
    rapidandoftenhaphazarddevelopmentofhigh-risk
    areassuchaswadiswhicharenaturaldrainageareas
    forashoods.Laxbuildingcodesandinfrastructure
    ratesandincreasethesalinityofcoastalaquifers,
    respectively.
    Someclimatescenariosalsoanticipateincreasedcli-
    matevariabilityandmorefrequentextremeweather
    events,suchasoodsanddroughts.Asatransitional
    climatezone,precipitationhasalreadybeenuctuat-
    ingsignicantlyinMoroccoandTunisiatothewest,
    andLebanonandtheSyrianArabRepublictotheeast.
    Evidencethatclimatechangeisafectingfreshwater
    quantityandqualityintheregionisbecomingstrong-
    er,althoughtheexpectedintensityofthesechanges
    remainsuncertain.
    Droughts and land degradation
    TheincreasingfrequencyofdroughtintheArabregion
    isaveryimportantchallengefacingtheArabregion.
    Algeria,Morocco,Somalia,theSyrianArabRepublic
    andTunisiahaveexperiencedsignicantdroughtsover
    thelast20years,andthefrequencyandintensityof
    theseeventsseemtobeincreasing.InMorocco,the
    droughtcyclechangedfromanaverageofoneyearof
    droughtineveryve-yearperiodbefore1990,toone
    yearofdroughtforeachtwo-yearperiodinthefollow-
    ingdecade(Karrou,2002).TheHornofAfricaisexpe-
    riencingoneoftheworstdroughtsindecades.
    Despiterepeatexperience,Arabcountriesremainvul-
    nerabletodrought.Socio-economicvulnerabilityto
    droughtinESCWAcountrieshasintensieddueto
    demographicandeconomicgrowth,increasingwater
    scarcity,unsustainablewaterconsumptionpatterns
    andlandusepractices(UNESCWA,2005).Thevulner-
    abilityofsomeArabcountriestodroughtscomesfrom
    theirhighdependencyonagriculture,andparticularly
    rainfedagriculture,asamaincontributortoGDPand
    employment.Anextendedhydrologicaldroughtin
    north-easternSyriafrom2006to2009droveanesti-
    matedonemillionpeopletoabandontheirhomesand
    seekrefugeinlargercities.AformerSyrianDeputy
    PrimeMinisterhasattributedthismassmigrationto
    havingsetinmotionthepopularuprisingsinitiatedin
    Syriansecondarycitiesin2011(A.Dardari,personal
    communication,November2011).InSomalia,where
    largesegmentsofthepopulationareeconomically
    dependentonpastoralandsubsistencefarming,pro-
    longeddroughthasdecimatedfamiliesandcaused
    widespreadfaminedisplacingcommunitiesinacon-
    ict-riddencountrythathasfaceddroughtsofvarying
    intensityeveryyearforoveradecade.
    WWDR4 715 ARABREGIONANDWESTERNASIA
    standards,aswellasweakregulationandenforce-
    ment,alsopermittheconstructionofbuildingsand
    infrastructurethatareill-preparedtosustaindamage
    duringmajoroods,suchasthoseinJeddahin2009
    (Assaf,2010).Theseextremeevents,however,ledto
    increasedpublicinvestmentinstormwatersystems
    andpreparednessplanningthatreducedrisksinsub-
    sequentyears.
    33.3.4Foodsecurity
    Agriculturalcultivationconsumesthelargestshareof
    waterintheArabregionandisaprimarysourceof
    waterstress.Whilepercapitaarablelandandperma-
    nentcroplandsaccountforasmallshareoflandin
    mostESCWAmembercountries,agricultureaccounts
    forover70%oftotalwaterdemand;inSomaliaand
    Yemen,theshareexceeds90%oftotalwaterdemand
    (FAO,AQUASTAT,2011).
    Despitehighusagerates,Arabcountriesarenotable
    toproducesufcientquantitiesoffoodtomeetbasic
    needs.Accordingly,ESCWAmembercountriesimport
    4050%oftheirtotalcerealconsumption,andthis
    ratereachesupto70%inIraqandYemen,despitethe
    signicantsizeoftheiragriculturalsectors(UNESCWA,
    2010b).Thissituationislikelytoworsenwithclimate
    change.
    Agriculturalexportbanshavealsobeeninstitutedin
    responsetotherecentfoodcrisesinaneforttoin-
    creasedomesticfoodsecurity,preventhordingforsale
    ininternationalmarketsandreducepriceinationfor
    basicfoodstufsatthenationallevel,suchasinEgypt
    withriceexports.Theuctuationsintheglobalcereal
    marketduringthepastfewyears,andtheinstability
    ofsupplies,witnessedwhenRussiabannedtheexport
    ofgrainsinAugust2010,provedproblematicforthe
    regionasEgyptandtheSyrianArabRepublicim-
    portedapproximatelyhalfoftheirtotalwheatimports
    fromRussiain2008and2009.However,wheatand
    barleyimportshavebecomeanecessityastheregion
    doesnothaveenoughwatertomeetgrowingdemand.
    Globalization,tradedependencyandtheglobalfood
    crisishavethusaddednewdimensionstothefoodse-
    curitychallengeintheArabregion.
    Further,theArabregionhasavulnerablesocialstruc-
    ture.Whilethereisaconcentrationofwealthinsome
    countries,alargeshareofthepopulationisclustered
    aroundthepovertyline,withmanypeopleliving
    wellbelowthepovertylineintheComoros,Djibouti,
    Mauritania,SomaliaandYemen.Increaseddrought
    frequency,complementedbydependencyonfoodim-
    portsandpopulationgrowth,leavestheArabregion
    highlyvulnerabletofoodinsecurity.
    Toaddressthechallenge,Arabcountriesinitiallytried
    toincreasedomesticcerealproductionandencour-
    agedcultivationinstrategiccommoditiesthroughsub-
    sidiesandguaranteedpricesupports(Egypt,Jordan,
    SaudiArabia).Investmentsinirrigationnetworksand
    reservoircapacityincreased(Lebanon,SyrianArab
    Republic),aswellasthepumpingofgroundwaterre-
    sourcesfortheproductionofcereals(Morocco,Saudi
    Arabia).Intraregionalagriculturaltradewasencour-
    agedthroughtheGreaterArabFreeTradeAgreement.
    However,limitedagriculturalproductivity,contin-
    uedlanddegradationandwaterscarcitymadefood
    self-sufciencygoalsunachievableatthenationalor
    regionallevel.Asaresult,Arabfoodself-sufciency
    policiesshiftedtowardsabroaderconceptoffoodse-
    curity.Governmentswiththenancialresourceshave
    beenabletopursuealternativemeasureswithinthe
    globalmarketplacetoachievethisgoal,whileothers
    arere-examiningtheirdevelopmentandtradepolicies.
    Somehavealsoturnedtoemergencyrelieftoover-
    comefoodcrises,suchasthoseexperiencedinthe
    HornofAfricaandSahelduetodrought.
    Biofuels
    Globalresearchanddevelopmenthasdemonstrated
    thatbiofuelsprovideopportunitiesforincreaseden-
    ergysecurityandruraldevelopmentthroughareliable
    marketforcertainagriculturalcommodities.Investors
    encouragedbytheemergingbiofuelmarkethavethus
    soughttocultivatejatrophainEgyptandSudan,as
    itisadrought-resistantnon-foodcropthatcanbe
    growninsalinesoils.However,arangeofstakeholders
    haveexpressedconcernthatArabfarmersmightshift
    cultivationtomoreprotablecommercialbiofuelcrops
    insteadoffoodcrops,despitegrowingwaterscarcity
    andfoodinsecurityintheregion.
    Arabgovernmentsrespondedbyencouragingthe
    developmentofsecond-generationbiofuelinstead.
    TheArabMinisterialDeclarationonClimateChange
    (CAMRE,2007,p.4)warnsoftheconsequencesofthe
    encouragementofdevelopedcountriestodevelop-
    ingcountriestocultivateagriculturalcropsthatpro-
    ducebio-fuelinsteadoffood;whileencouragingits
    productionfrombio-waste.Meanwhile,theStrategy
    forSustainableArabAgriculturalDevelopmentfor
    CHAPTER33 REGIONALREPORTS 716
    theUpcomingTwoDecades(20052025)adopt-
    edthroughtheArabOrganizationforAgricultural
    Developmentrecognizestheaddedvalueforfarmers
    ofusingagriculturalresiduesforbiofuelproduction
    andthepositiveimpactthiswillhaveontheenviron-
    mentandonsecuringfuel.Assessmentshavealso
    foundthepotentialforexpandingsecond-generation
    biofuelproductioninEgypt,Lebanon,Morocco,the
    SyrianArabRepublicandSudanfromresiduesresult-
    ingfromsugarcane,sugarbeetandoliveprocess-
    ing,aswellasfromthelivestockanddairysectors
    (UNESCWA,2009e).
    33.3.5Dataandinformation
    Thedifcultyofcollectingconsistentandcredibledata
    andinformationonwaterresourcesintheArabregion
    impedesaccurateanalysesandwell-informeddeci-
    sion-makingprocesses.Italsopreventstheestablish-
    mentofcoherentandcooperativepolicyframeworks
    forsharedwaterresourcesmanagementaswellasob-
    servingchangesandassessingprogress.
    Severalinitiativeshavebeenlaunchedtoincreasethe
    knowledgebaseofwaterresourcesintheregion,in-
    cludingintergovernmentalprocessestiedtostatistical
    reportingatthegloballevel,andothersattheregional
    andnationallevelsthroughregionalreportingmecha-
    nismsorasacademicinitiatives.
    However,thedifcultyofreducingthegapsanduncer-
    taintyassociatedwiththeknowledgebaserestswith
    thepoliticalsensitivityandnationalsecurityconsidera-
    tionsthataresometimestiedtothisinformation.This
    resultsinapatchworkofinformationfromdiferent
    sourcesthatisusedbytheresearchandprofessional
    community,whileofcialdataremainsacovetedre-
    sourcethatissometimesreservedforusebycertain
    governmentalinstitutions.
    33.4Responsemeasures
    Inviewofthesedriversandchallenges,Arabcountries
    areseekingtoimprovewaterresourcesmanagement
    andcapacity,strengthenresilienceandpreparedness,
    andexpandtheuseofnon-conventionalwaterre-
    sourcesasameanstoensureawater-securefuture.
    33.4.1Improvingwaterresourcesmanagement
    At the regional level
    Arabcountriesclearlyrecognizetheneedforacom-
    monapproachtowardswaterresourcesmanagement
    toachievesustainabledevelopmentoftheregion.
    ThisledtotheadoptionoftheArabWaterSecurity
    StrategybytheAMWCin2011.Thestrategylaysout
    keyissuesfacingtheArabregionandidentiesvarious
    prioritiesforactionfocusedon:
    Socio-economic development prioritiesnamely
    accesstowatersupplyandsanitation,waterforag-
    riculture,nanceandinvestment,technology,non-
    conventionalwaterresourcesandIntegratedWater
    andResourcesManagement(IWRM);
    Political prioritiesrelatedtothemanagementof
    sharedwaterresourcesandtheprotectionofArab
    waterrights,particularlythoseunderoccupation;and
    Institutional prioritiesassociatedwithcapacity
    building,awarenessraising,research,andparticipa-
    toryapproachesinvolvingcivilsociety.
    Regionalinstitutionsandinitiativeslaunchedinrecent
    yearsrespondtothesepriorities.Forinstance,the
    ArabCountriesWaterUtilitiesAssociation(ACWUA)
    establisheditssecretariatin2009andprovidesa
    platformfordialogueandcapacitybuildingonwater
    supplyandsanitationforpublicandprivatesector
    operatorsonvarioustopics,includingunaccount-
    ed-forwater,tarifsandbenchmarking.TheCenter
    forWaterStudiesandArabWaterSecurity,afliat-
    edwiththeLeagueofArabStates,convenesinter-
    governmentalmeetingsonagreementsandreso-
    lutionsonsharedwaterresourcesandArabwater
    rights.Thisincludesdeliberationsonalegalframe-
    workonsharedwatersintheArabRegion,whichthe
    Center,andUNESCWAdraftedattherequestofthe
    AMWC(2010)inconsultationwithArabgovernments
    andwithsupportprovidedbytheBundesanstaltfr
    GeowissenschaftenundRohstofe(FederalInstitutefor
    GeosciencesandNaturalResources,BGR,Germany).
    Thelegalframeworkseekstofosterconsensusona
    coresetofprinciplesthatcansupportbilateraland
    basin-levelagreementsonwaterresourcesshared
    byArabcountries(UNESCWA,2011).Theframework
    drawsuponavisionthatfosterscooperationandpar-
    ticipation;equitable,reasonable,andsustainableuse;
    andconictpreventionandresolutionthroughpeace-
    fulmeans(UNESCWAandBGR,2010).Regionalca-
    pacity-buildingprogrammeshavealsobeenconducted
    inresponsetothestrategy,suchastrainingonnegoti-
    ationsbytheArabWaterAcademyandworkshopson
    watergovernancebytheAWCandCEDARE.
    At the national level
    Atthenationallevel,diferentministriesandauthori-
    tiesareresponsibleformanagingwaterresourcesand
    WWDR4 717 ARABREGIONANDWESTERNASIA
    deliveringwaterservicesinArabregion.Onlyahand-
    fulofjointcommitteesorunitshavebeenestablished
    tosupportsharedwaterresources.However,efortsto
    improveinstitutionalandlegalframeworksinthewater
    sectorhavebeenenactedorareunderway,andare
    increasinglyincorporatingissuespreviouslylimitedto
    IWRMplanning.
    Forexample,Law10-95inMoroccosetsforthanin-
    stitutionalframeworkformanagingwaterresourc-
    es,withaviewtowardsenvironmentalprotectionas
    wellasmonitoringandrespondingtoextremeevents,
    suchasdroughts(Makboul,2009).Egyptprepareda
    2005NationalWaterResourcesPlan,whichincludes
    manyinstitutionalproceduresaimedatdecentraliza-
    tion,publicprivatepartnershipsandengagingwater
    usersinwatersystemmanagement.Anewdraftwater
    lawseekstoempowertheEgyptianWaterRegulatory
    Agency(EWRA),diferentiatebetweensocialand
    economictarifs,andestablishasetofperformance
    indicatorsforutilities.Yemendevisedanationalstrat-
    egyandinvestmentprogrammeforthewatersector
    (20052009),whichaddresseswaterresourceman-
    agement,waterandsanitationinurbanareas,water
    andsanitationinruralareas,irrigationmanagement,
    andtheenvironment.Palestineisworkingtointegrate
    waterresourcemanagementintodevelopmentplan-
    ning,andexaminedtheimplicationsofclimatechange
    forgroundwaterresourcesasameanstoinformthe
    process.Jordandevelopedanationalstrategythatin-
    cludespoliciesongroundwatermanagement,irriga-
    tion,infrastructure,sanitation,waterresourcemanage-
    mentandinvestment(UNESCWA,2007b).Lebanon
    preparedanewNationalWaterSectorStrategyfo-
    cusedonwatersupplyandsanitationthatissupport-
    edthroughaWaterSectorCoordinationGroupthat
    contributedsocialimpactanalysis,healthassessments
    andclimatechangeimpactscenariostotheprepara-
    toryprocess.Nevertheless,thereremainsaneedto
    strengthenlegalandinstitutionalframeworksand
    inter-ministerialcoordinationforIWRMtopushfor-
    wardprogressinthisareathroughouttheregion.
    33.4.2Strengtheningresilienceandpreparedness
    Improving food security
    Aswithmostcountriesintheworld,Arabcountries
    seektoensuretheirfoodsecuritythroughtrade,in-
    vestmentandcontractualarrangementswithoth-
    ercountries.Long-termleasingofagriculturalland
    inothercountrieshasemergedasanothertoolfor
    overcomingshortcomingsandshortfallsindomestic
    agriculturalproductionduetowater,land,energyor
    technologicalconstraints.Theseinvestmentsarede-
    signedtoensureaccesstostaplecommoditiesand
    reduceexposuretoglobalfoodpriceuctuationsand
    exportbans,whichoftenoccurduringfoodcrises.
    Throughthesearrangements,investorsreduceriskby
    leasinglandtogrowneededprimarycommoditiesin
    countrieswithsuitablelandandwaterresources,while
    hostcountriessecureinvestmentsoveranagreedtime
    horizonthatcanallowforthedevelopmentoftrans-
    port,waterandenergyinfrastructureinthetargeted
    area.Employmentandincomegenerationisalsofos-
    teredthroughprimaryandsecondaryagro-industries
    (fertilizers,packaging,shipping)giventhatthese
    investmentstendtobelargeinsize.However,while
    thesecontractsofertheopportunityformutualben-
    ets,theoperationalizationoftheseinvestmentshas
    beencontroversialwhereindigenouscommunitiesand
    pastoralistshavetraditionallyusedthelandsthatare
    beingopenedtojointventuresorleasedtoinvestors
    bycentralgovernmentsorabsenteelandowners.
    SeveralArabcountriesareengagedinagriculturalin-
    vestmentsandlanddealswithotherArabcountries
    andinneighbouringregions,andtheirnumbershave
    increasedinrecentyearsaswaterscarcityandland
    degradationhavebecomemoreevident.Jordanen-
    gagedinlanddealtalkswithSudanforlivestockand
    cropcultivation(Hazaimeh,2008),andtheAbuDhabi
    FundforDevelopmentinvestedinthecultivationof
    28,000haoffarmlandinSudan(Rice,2008).TheKing
    AbdullahInitiativeforSaudiAgriculturalInvestment
    Abroadwasestablishedtomaintainfoodsecurityin
    theKingdomgiventheGovernmentsdecisiontore-
    ducepricesupportsfordomesticwheatproduction
    andothercommoditiesbecauseofwaterconstraints.
    Theinitiativeencouragestheprivatesectortoinvest
    inagricultureabroadandreceiveditsrstriceimports
    in2009.Staplegoodsaretargeted,particularlywheat,
    barley,corn,sorghum,soybeans,rice,sugar,oilseeds,
    greenfodder,livestockandsherygoods,whichare
    allwater-intensiveproducts(Al-Obaid,2010);Egypt,
    Sudan,Turkey,Ethiopia,thePhilippines,andBrazil
    amongothercountriesaretargetedforinvestments.
    OnestudyreportsthatveAfricancountries(Ethiopia,
    Ghana,Madagascar,MaliandSudan)approvedatotal
    of2,492,684haoflandforforeigninvestmentsin
    agriculturesince2004,excludingallocationsbelow
    1,000haandpendinglandapplications,andthat
    Arabcountriescontributesignicantlytothistotal
    (Cotulaetal.,2009).
    CHAPTER33 REGIONALREPORTS 718
    Sovereignwealthfunds,liketheQatarInvestment
    AuthorityandKuwaitInvestmentAuthorityareen-
    gagedinthesetypesofinvestmentsdirectlyor
    throughstate-ownedenterprisesinArabandSouth
    EastAsiancountries(Reuters,2008a).Theprivate
    sectorisalsoengaged.Jenat,aconsortiumofSaudi
    agriculturalcompanies,produceswheat,barleyand
    livestockfeedinEgypt,andannouncedplanstoinvest
    inSudanandEthiopia(Reuters,2008b;2009).Private
    investmentfunds,suchastheAbuDhabi-basedAl
    QudraHoldingarealsoactiveinthissector(Blas,
    2008).Thisdemonstratesthemarketsrecognition
    thatinvestmentsabroadwillhelpsatisfygrowingfood
    demandgiventhelackofopportunitytoinvestinthis
    sectorathomebecauseofincreasednaturalresource
    constraints.
    Nevertheless,therapidriseofforeignlandacquisitions
    indevelopingandleastdevelopedcountrieshasraised
    concernthattheymayfurtherreducefoodsecurity
    inthesecountriesinfaceofglobalfoodcrises,par-
    ticularlyamongtheleastprivilegedandmarginalized
    communities.AsaconsequencesomeArabcoun-
    triessuchasQatararenowtargetingmoredeveloped
    countrieswithsignicantfoodsurplusfortheiragricul-
    turalinvestments(Reuters,2010),whileothersarealso
    supportingfoodprogrammesincountriesunderstress,
    suchasSaudiArabiathroughitsdonationstoSomalia,
    SudanandMauritania.
    Pursuing climate change adaptation and disaster
    preparedness
    TheArabMinisterialDeclarationonClimateChange
    (2007)expressesArabcommitmenttomovetowards
    climatechangeadaptationandmitigation,andwas
    followedbythepreparationoftheArabFramework
    ActionPlanonClimateChangefor20102020.Arab
    countrieshaveconcurrentlysoughttoassesstheim-
    pactofclimatechangeonnationalwaterresourcesto
    informtheirnationaladaptationplansandcommu-
    nicationstotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimate
    Change(IPCC).Inviewofprovidingauniedassess-
    mentforinformingregionalpoliciesonclimatechange
    adaptation,theRegionalInitiativefortheAssessment
    oftheImpactofClimateChangeonWaterResources
    andSocio-EconomicVulnerabilityintheArabRegion
    waslaunchedascoordinatedUN-LASefortun-
    dertheumbrellaoftheAMWCandtheUNRegional
    CoordinationMechanism.
    Risksanduncertaintyassociatedwithclimatechange
    andextremeweathereventshavepushedforward
    nationalandregionalefortsintheareaofdisas-
    terriskreduction,planningandpreparedness.The
    ArabStrategyforDisasterRiskReduction2020was
    adoptedin2010andisbeingsupportedbytheUnited
    NationsInternationalStrategyforDisasterReduction
    (UNISDR)andpartnersthroughthepreparationof
    nationaldisasterinventories,regionalplatforms,and
    capacity-buildingprogrammesaimedatimproving
    landuseplanning,regulatoryframeworks,nancing
    andaccesstouser-friendlyinformationandcommuni-
    cationtools.
    Arabcountriesarealsorespondingtoclimatechange
    nationally.Forexample,adroughtinsurancepro-
    grammebasedonrainfallcontractsinMoroccoisan
    importantclimatechangeadaptationmeasurethathas
    thepotentialtoreducetheefectofdroughthazards
    andhashelpedtosafeguardtheproductionofcereals
    (Medany,2008).Programmestoimplementno-regret
    measuresarealsoproliferatinginwateruseefciency
    andnon-conventionalwaterresourcemanagement.
    Managementstrategiesfocusedondamconstruction
    andaquiferrechargeareincreasinglyvisibleinthere-
    gionasawaytorespondtooodriskandstorewater
    forfutureuse.DuringtheashoodsthathitEgyptin
    January2010,theGovernmentreportedthatthedams
    establishedinSinaiandAswanplayedapositiverolein
    protectingNaamaBay,NuweibaaandDahab,whilealso
    allowingforthestorageofstormwaterinaquifers;this
    raisedthegroundwatertablealongthecoastlineandhas
    helpedpreventsaltwaterintrusionandcontributedto
    improvingwaterqualityinthoseareas(Governmentof
    Egypt,2010).DamsbuiltaroundJeddahhelpedminimize
    damagecausedbytheoodsandassociatedlandslides
    inthecityin2009(Saud,2010).
    Whiledamscanhavebothpositiveandnegativeim-
    pactsonnaturalandurbanecosystems,someArab
    countrieshaveincreasedtheirtotaldamcapacity.
    Egyptstandsattheforefrontwithacapacityofat
    least169km
    3
    since2003.However,totaldamcapacity
    inIraqalmosttripledfrom50.2km
    3
    to139.7km
    3

    between1990and2000.Syriandamcapacityin-
    creasedfrom15.85km
    3
    in1994to19.65km
    3
    in2007,
    withnewdamsunderdevelopmentalongtheAl-Assi
    Rivertohelpregulateriverowandreduceood
    risk.Lebanonisproposingaseriesofnewdamsinits
    NationalWaterSectorStrategy.
    WWDR4 719 ARABREGIONANDWESTERNASIA
    Managedaquiferrechargeisalsobeingconsidered
    moreclosely,fortworeasons:(a)tostaveofsaltwater
    intrusionintocoastalaquifersfromover-pumpingand
    sealevelrise,whichafectsMediterraneanandArabian
    Gulfcoastlines;and(b)tostoreexcessproductionof
    desalinatedwaterasariskbufertoprepareforfuture
    peaksindemandordesalinationplantfailuresinGCC
    countries.
    33.4.3Expandinguseofnon-conventionalwater
    resources
    Non-conventionalwaterresourceshavebecomea
    mainstreamresponsetowaterscarcityintheArab
    region.Desaliniationistheprimarysourceofwaterin
    GCCcountries,whilethereuseofwastewateriscom-
    monpracticeinJordanandtheUAE.Nevertheless,the
    sustainabilityofthesemeasuresrequiresfurtherac-
    tionbyArabGovernmentsastheypursueresearchand
    investmentinnewnon-conventionalwaterresources
    underdevelopment.
    Desalination
    Growingwaterdemandhasincreasedinvestmentin
    desalinationthroughouttheArabregion.SaudiArabia
    hasthegreatestdesalinationcapacityintheworldand
    producesover10MCMperday,whiletheUAEisthe
    secondlargestproducer;jointlytheirdesalinationca-
    pacityaccountsforover30%ofglobalfreshwaterpro-
    duction(UNESCWA,2009b).OutsideoftheGCC,de-
    salinationrepresentsagrowingshareofwatersupply
    inAlgeria,Egypt,IraqandJordan,withefortstoex-
    pandcapacityinPalestineunderway.Tourismgrowth
    alongtheEgyptiancoastlineisdependentupondesali-
    nation,aspipelinestransferringNileRiverwatertothe
    RedSeacoastarenolongersufcienttosatisfyneeds.
    Co-generationisalsoexpandingintheGulf,where
    poweranddesalinatedwaterareproducedatajoint
    facility.Forinstance,in2011,thePowerandWaterUtility
    CompanyforJubailandYanbu(Maraq)inSaudiArabia
    startedconstructiononYanbu2,whichaimstoproduce
    850MWofelectricityand60,000m
    3
    ofdesalinated
    waterperday(Zawya,2011).However,desalination
    andco-generationarenotcost-efectivesolutionsin
    energy-poorcountriesandposesaproblemforclimate
    changeduetotheirenergyintensity.Universitiesand
    researchcentresintheregionarethuspilotingrenewa-
    bleenergydesalinationfacilitiesbasedonsolarorwind
    energy(UNESCWA,2009b),whicharegainingcur-
    rencyinAlgeria,Morocco,Tunisia,SaudiArabiaandthe
    UAE.Prospectsfornucleardesalinationarealsobeing
    advancedinJordan,Morocco,SaudiArabiaandthe
    UAE.
    Desalinationalsoemergedasalocalresponseand
    community-basedresilienceschemeinthethe
    OccupiedPalestinianTerritory,whereaccesstowater
    islimitedandgroundwaterhasbecomeincreasingly
    saline.Drivenbytheprivatesector,smallreverseos-
    mosisdesalinationunitscannowbefoundinabout
    100,000householdsintheGazaStrip,asasecond-
    arysourceofdrinkingwaterwhenmunicipalsup-
    pliesarenotdelivered(WorldBank,2009).However,
    anewchallengehasbeenthefalsesenseofsecurity
    thatthesesmallhouseholddesalinationunitsprovide
    astheunitscontinuetobeuseddespitethedifculty
    ofsecuringreplacementlters,whichhasresultedin
    associatedhealthrisksandchallengescausedbycon-
    tinueduseofsystemsthatrequiremaintenance.
    Reuse of wastewater
    Thereuseofdomesticwastewaterforurbanlandscap-
    ingandgreenbeltstocombatlanddegradationand
    deserticationhasbeenpracticedinArabcountriesfor
    decades.SomeArabcountriesadoptedqualitystand-
    ardstoregulatewastewaterreuseforcertainpurpos-
    es(WHO-EM/CEH,2006).However,increasingwater
    scarcityanddevelopmentpressureshaveincreasedin-
    terestintheuseoftreatedsewage.Asaresult,treated
    wastewaterisnowusedintheurban,agricultural,in-
    dustrialandenvironmentalsectors.
    Jordan,Kuwait,SaudiArabiaandtheUAEproducea
    relativelylargeamountoftreatedwastewater,with
    directuseoftreatedwastewaterrepresentingnearly
    1%and3%oftotalwaterwithdrawalinSaudiArabia
    andOmanrespectivelyin2006,andnearly9%and10%
    oftotalwaterwithdrawalinJordanandQatarrespec-
    tivelyin2005(FAO,2011).JordanandtheUAEhave
    establishedclassicationsystemsforregulatingthe
    reuseoftreatedwastewaterfordiferentpurposes,in-
    cludingthecultivationoffoodandnon-foodproducts.
    BahrainAirportusestreatedgreywaterforcooling
    andlandscaping.AbuDhabicontractedVeoliaWater
    totertiarytreatsewagefromitscapitalcityatadesert
    location,wherethetreatedwastewaterwillbeusedto
    greenthedesertandsupporttheestablishmentofa
    newcommunityandbiodiversityreserve.Theuseof
    treatedwastewaterisalsobeingconsideredaspart
    ofmanagedaquiferrechargeschemesinsomeGulf
    countries.However,increasedinvestmentinsanitation,
    sufcientaccesstoenergytofueltertiarytreatment
    CHAPTER33 REGIONALREPORTS 720
    facilities,andtheadoptionofharmonizedquality
    standardsandclassicationsystemsareneededto
    generatefurtherbenetsfromtreatedwastewaterre-
    useintheregion.
    Water harvesting and fog collection
    Waterharvestinghasbeenup-scaledandexpand-
    edintheArabregionbasedontraditionalpractices.
    Householdandfarmlevelrainwatercollectionisal-
    readycommonpracticeintheOccupiedPalestinian
    Territory,TunisiaandYemen,andisusuallycaptured
    instoragetanksandreservoirsforwateringresiden-
    tialgardensormeetingdomesticwaterneeds.Water
    harvestingthroughcondensationbyforestshasbeen
    pilotedtofacilitategroundwaterrechargeinOman,
    whileothermethodsareinplacetorechargeaqui-
    fersalongthenortherncoastofEgypt.Fogcollection
    isanotheroption.InYemen,25largefogcollectors
    wereconstructedin2004withanareaof40m
    2
    each,
    estimatedtoprovide4500Lofdrinkingwaterper
    dayduringthedrywinterseason(Schemenaueretal,
    2004).In2006,threestandardfogcollectorsspan-
    ning1m
    2
    eachwereinstalledinthesouth-western
    regionofSaudiArabia.Duringthewinterseason,the
    bestaveragedailywaterproductionof11.5L/m
    2
    was
    obtained,whichencouragesthedevelopmentoffur-
    therapplicationofthistechnologyintheregion(Al-
    Hassan,2009).However,fogcollectionfacilitiesneed
    tobecarefullyintroducedbasedoncomprehensive
    feasibilitystudiesastheyonlyworkwherecertain
    weatherconditionsaremet.
    Pilots and prospects for new non-conventional water
    resources
    Whilecloudseedingbecamepopularafteritssuc-
    cessfuldemonstrationbyChinapriortothe2008
    BeijingOlympicGames,severalArabcountries,in-
    cludingAlgeria,Libya,Morocco,Jordan,Iraq,Saudi
    Arabia,theSyrianArabRepublicandUAEhavebeen
    pilotingcloudseedingprogrammessinceitsintro-
    duction(Al-Fenadi,n.d.).Between2001and2002,
    theUAEconductedcloudseedingeldprogrammes
    andfoundthatthecharacteristicsofcloudsdifer
    fromseasontoseason;newcloudseedingexperi-
    mentsweresuccessfullyconductedbymeteorologi-
    calauthoritiesintheUAEin2008(Gulfnews,2008).
    However,cloudseedinghasfostereddebateinthere-
    gionregardingwhoownstheclouds,particularlywhen
    theycrossbetweencountries(Majzoubetal.,2009).
    Capturingfreshwaterfromnewlyidentiedunderwater
    springsintheregionofersanotherwaytoovercome
    waterdecitsthankstotheintroductionofadvanced
    remotesensingtechniques(Shaban,2009).However,
    thismayintroducenewterritorialconictsregarding
    seaandsubmarineresourcessharedbycountries,and
    maypotentiallyafectsalinitylevelsneededtomain-
    taincoastalmarineecosystems.
    Conclusion
    Despitetherisksanduncertaintiesdiscussedinthis
    chapter,waterowsatthecoreofArabcultureand
    consciousness.AnationalEgyptianholidaycommemo-
    ratestheoodingoftheRiverNileeveryspring,even
    thoughseasonaloodinghasstoppedsincetheAswan
    Damwasbuiltinthe1950s.MostArabsliveincit-
    iessituatedalongthecoastlineorariverbed.Islamic
    cleansingwithwaterispracticedbymillionsofArabs
    everydaypriortoprayer,whilethreatstoArabwater
    rightsremainatouchstoneforsolidaritythroughout
    theregion.
    Nonetheless,waterscarcity,populationgrowth,food
    security,climatechange,extremeweatherevents,
    regionalconictsandthepotentialfornewconict
    oversharedresourcesinuencetheabilitytomanage
    surfacewaterandgroundwaterresourcesintheArab
    region.Thefuturewillshowhowassessingtheserisks
    andengagingstakeholdersinconstructiveandpartici-
    patoryprocesseswillstimulateactionatthenational
    andregionallevelstoovercomethesechallengesde-
    spitecontinuingconditionsofuncertainty.

    Notes
    1 The22countriesoftheArabregionareidentiedasthosethat
    aremembersoftheLeagueofArabStates,namelyAlgeria,
    Bahrain,theComoros,Djibouti,Egypt,Iraq,Jordan,Kuwait,
    Lebanon,Libya,Mauritania,Morocco,Oman,theOccupied
    PalestinianTerritory,Qatar,SaudiArabia,Somalia,Sudan,Syrian
    ArabRepublic,Tunisia,theUnitedArabEmiratesandYemen.
    2 The14ESCWAmembercountriesareBahrain,Egypt,Iraq,
    Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,theOccupiedPalestinian
    Territory,Qatar,SaudiArabia,Sudan,SyrianArabRepublic,
    UnitedArabEmiratesandYemen.

    WWDR4 721 ARABREGIONANDWESTERNASIA
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    WHOandUNICEF

    AuthorsJenniferGentry-ShieldsandJamieBartram
    ContributorsRobertBos,Claire-LiseChaignat,BruceAllanGordon,DominiqueMaison,
    YvesChartier,CheeKeongChewandMargaretMontgomery(WHO)andPeterHarvey
    (UNICEF)
    CHAPTER 34
    Water and health
    TacoAnema

    The global drivers predicted to have the greatest efect on disease rates via the water
    environment are population growth and urbanization, agriculture, infrastructure, and global
    climate change. Trends in these drivers directly and indirectly afect the global burden of
    disease, largely adversely, and increase the overall uncertainty in future human health.
    There are numerous non-water-related environmental determinants of health, as well as non-
    environmental determinants of health, that make the identication of trends and hotspots in
    water and health challenging.
    By outlining the environmenthealth nexus for each of the major water-related disease
    groups, ve key solutions were identied: access to safe drinking water and sanitation,
    improved hygiene, environmental management and the use of health impact assessments.
    Implementation of these actions serves to reduce the burden of multiple diseases and
    improve quality of life for billions of individuals.
    In-depth studies are required to more accurately identify the risks and opportunities related
    to water and health, such as The 2030 Vision Study which determined the major risks,
    uncertainties and opportunities related to the resilience of water supply and sanitation in the
    face of climate change.
    Protection of human health requires collaboration among multiple sectors, including those in
    non-water and non-health sectors.
    WWDR4 725 WATERANDHEALTH
    34.1Introduction
    Improvingwaterresourcemanagement,drinkingwa-
    tersupply,sanitationandhygienehasthepotentialto
    prevent9.1%oftheglobaldiseaseburdenor6.3%of
    alldeaths(Prss-stnetal.,2008).Understanding
    thenatureandmagnitudeoftheburdenofwater-
    associateddiseasesprovidesthebasisforefective
    interventions.
    Thisreportexaminesthediseasesthatcontributesig-
    nicantlytothisglobalburden(indisability-adjusted
    lifeyears,orDALYs,aweightedmeasureofdeaths
    anddisability;seeFigure34.1)andthatarerealistically
    preventableusingavailabletechnologies,policiesand
    publichealthmeasures.
    Mappingtheenvironmenthealthcausalpathway
    providesinsightsthatinformefectivepublichealth
    interventions.Thedriver,pressure,state,exposure,ef-
    fectandaction(DPSEEA)model,developedbythe
    WorldHealthOrganization(WHO)providesasimple
    illustrationofthewayinwhichtheenvironmentin-
    uenceshealthandhowtheenvironmentalstateis
    inuencedbyhighercauses(KjellstrmandCorvaln,
    1995).Themodelallowsforaclearunderstanding
    ofthefactorscontributingtotheburdenofdisease
    andsupportsthedevelopmentofefectiveinterven-
    tionstrategies.Yetthisprocessiscomplicatedbythe
    factthateachdiseaseisassociatedwithavarietyof
    economic,societalandnaturaldrivingforces.Wehave
    usedtheDPSEEAmodeltodeterminethelinkages
    forthediseasegroups,denedbyBradley(2008)as
    waterbornediseases,water-washeddiseases,wa-
    ter-baseddiseasesandwater-relatedinsectvector
    diseases.
    34.2Water-relateddiseasegroups,
    environmenthealthpathwayandpromising
    interventions
    34.2.1Waterbornediseases
    Waterbornediseasesarecontractedbydrinkingcon-
    taminatedwater.Themostpredominantincludediar-
    rhoealdisease,fromwhichover2millionpeopledie
    everyyear(WHOandUNICEF,2010),andarsenicand
    uoridepoisoning,forwhichtheglobalimpactsare
    unknown.Thesediseasesaredrivenbyuctuationsin
    extremeweatherevents(e.g.inlandooding),climate
    change,deforestation,populationgrowthandagri-
    culture,asshowninFigure34.2whichoutlinesthe
    environmenthealthpathwayforwaterbornediseases.
    Promisinginterventionsforwaterbornediseasesin-
    cludetheprovisionofsafedrinkingwater(Box34.1),
    improvedsanitation(Box34.2)andhealthimpactas-
    sessments(Box34.3).
    Accesstosafedrinkingwatercanpreventwaterborne
    diseasesbyavoidingconsumptionofunsafedrinking
    water.Somestrategiesforprovidingaccesstosafe
    drinkingwateraregiveninBox34.1.
    Accesstowaterviaapipedinfrastructurecanleadto
    substantivereductionsinmortalityduetodiarrhoeal
    diseaseandarsenicanduoridepoisoning.Studies
    fromtheUnitedStates(CutlerandMiller,2005;
    Watson,2006)andIndia(JalanandRavallion,2003)
    haveshownthatcombinedimprovementsinwaterac-
    cessandqualitycanhaveenormoushealthreturns.As
    theproportionoftheglobalpopulationthatrelieson
    improvedsourcesofdrinkingwater(includingpiped
    systems)increases,thequalityofwaterreceivedfrom
    thesesourceswillbecomeincreasinglysignicantfor
    health.Pipedwaterisnotnecessarilysafeforexample,
    FIGURE 34.1
    Diseaseswiththelargestwater,sanitationand
    hygienecontributionin2000
    Note: DALY, disability-adjusted life year (which measures the years
    of life lost to premature mortality and the years lost to disability);
    PEM, protein-energy malnutrition (which is malnutrition that
    develops in adults and children whose consumption of protein and
    energy is insufcient to satisfy the bodys nutritional needs).
    Source: Prss-stn et al. (2008).
    Diarrhocaldiseases
    Consequencesofmalnutrition
    Malaria
    Drownings
    Malnutrition(onlyPEM)
    Limphaticlariasis
    Intestinalnematodeinfections
    Trachoma
    Schistosomiasis
    0%
    Environmentalfraction
    1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
    Non-environmentalfraction
    Fraction of total global burden of disease in DALYs
    CHAPTER34 SPECIALREPORTS 726
    FIGURE 34.2
    Driver,pressure,state,exposure,efectandaction(DPSEEA)modelforwaterbornediseases
    Note: The size of the health efect boxes varies with the corresponding global burden of disease in disability-adjusted life years: diarrhoeal
    diseases, 52,460,000 (including waterborne and water-washed diarrhoeal disease); arsenic poisoning and uorosis, unknown (disease burden
    estimates from Prss-stn et al., 2008).
    BOX 34.1
    Safedrinkingwaterstrategiesforreducingwaterbornedisease
    Safedrinkingwater,asdenedinthethirdeditionoftheWHOguidelinesfordrinking-waterquality,doesnotrepresentany
    signicantrisktohealthoveralifetimeofconsumption,includingdiferentsensitivitiesthatmayoccurbetweenlifestag-
    es(WHO,2008b).Solutionsforprovidingsafedrinkingwaterincludepipedwaterinfrastructure(throughstandpipesand
    householdconnections),wellsandpoint-of-use(PoU)watertreatment.Pipedwatersupplyhasbeenshowntodrastically
    reducechildmortality(CutlerandMiller,2005;Watson,2006).However,pipedwaterservicestosome,especiallydispersed
    rural,populationsmaynotbereadilyachievable.Themajority(84%)oftheglobalpopulationwhodonothaveanimproved
    drinkingwatersourceresidesinruralareas(WHOandUNICEF,2010),despiteanincreasedruralcoveragefrom64%in1990
    to78%in2008.Inruralregions,drinkingwateraccessisoftenoutsidethehome,suchascommunaltaps,wellsandprotected
    springs.Suchprotectedsourcesmaymakewateravailableclosertothehome,butquantitiestransportedaremoderate,and
    waterisreadilyandfrequentlycontaminated.PoUwatertreatmentandimprovedwaterstoragepracticescanreducepatho-
    gencontamination.NumerousPoUtechnologiesareavailable,includingchlorination,theuseofocculants,adsorption,ltra-
    tion,boilingorsolardisinfection.
    Driver
    Action
    Pressure State Exposure HealthEfect
    Extreme
    weatherevents
    Climatechange
    Deforestation
    Population
    growth
    HealthImpact
    Assessment
    Improved
    sanitation
    Point-of-usewater
    treatment
    Pipedsafewater
    tothehome
    Concentration
    ofpathogens
    Consumptionof
    unsafedrinkingwater
    Arsenicpoisoning
    anduorosis
    Diarrhoealdiseases
    Concentration
    oftoxicchemicals
    Uncontained
    anduntreated
    excreta
    Agriculture
    Strong
    LineThickness Strengthofassociation
    Intermediate
    Fair
    WWDR4 727 WATERANDHEALTH
    insufcienttreatmentandinterruptionstotreatment
    andservicecanresultintheconsumptionofunsafe
    water(Hunteretal.,2005).Inagingsystems,failure
    willlikelybecomeaprincipalriskrelatedtowaterand
    healthissues(USEPA,2007)(seeChapter24forinfra-
    structuretoolsandoptions).
    Conversely,studiesreportlittleevidenceforsubstan-
    tialhealthefectsfromruralwaterinfrastructures
    (Esrey,1996;Fewtrelletal.,2005).Small,especiallyru-
    ral,systemsarefrequentlycontaminatedandimprop-
    erlymaintained.Watercarriedintothehomefrequent-
    lybecomescontaminatedintransportandstorage
    (WangandHunter,2010).Countlessanecdotesexist
    aboutinfrastructuresthatarepoorlyconstructed,im-
    properlymaintainedandeventuallyabandoned.
    Point-of-use(PoU)watertreatmentisapromisingway
    tocountercontaminationofwaterduringtransport
    andstorage.SomeevaluationsofPoUwatertreatment
    systemsfoundreductionsof2030%indiarrhoealinci-
    denceatthehouseholdlevel(Quicketal.,1999;Reller
    etal.,2003).SomePoUsremovearsenicanduoride.
    Nevertheless,healthbenetsofPoUtreatmentdepend
    onindividualdecisionstoadoptandconsistentlyad-
    heretocertainbehaviours.Theintroductionofwater
    treatmenttechnologywithoutconsiderationforthe
    socioculturalaspectsofthecommunityandwithout
    behavioural,motivational,educationalandpartici-
    patoryactivitieswithinthecommunityisunlikelyto
    besuccessfulorsustainable(asreviewedinSobsey,
    2006).Determiningefectivepromotionstrategiesand
    FIGURE 34.3
    Driver,pressure,state,exposure,efectandaction(DPSEEA)modelforwater-washeddiseases
    Note: The size of the health efect boxes varies with the burden of disease in disability-adjusted life years: diarrhoeal diseases, 52,460,000
    (including waterborne and water-washed diarrhoeal disease); intestinal nematodes, 2,948,000; malnutrition, 35,849,000; trachoma, 2,320,000
    (disease burden estimates from Prss-stn et al., 2008).
    Driver
    Action
    Pressure State Exposure HealthEfect
    Population
    growth
    Improved
    sanitation
    Hygiene
    Concentration
    ofpathogens
    Trachoma
    Intestinal
    nematodes
    Malnutrition
    Diarrhoealdiseases
    Uncontained
    anduntreated
    excreta
    Exposureto
    contaminatedsoils
    Eatingcontaminated
    food
    Persontoperson
    contact
    Contactwith
    fomite
    Contactwith
    infectedvector
    Strong
    LineThickness Strengthofassociation
    Intermediate
    Fair
    Agriculture
    CHAPTER34 SPECIALREPORTS 728
    howtosustainbehaviouralchangesshouldbeaprior-
    ityinPoUinitiatives.
    Inadditiontosafedrinkingwater,actionstocom-
    batwaterbornediarrhoealdiseaseincludesanitation
    (eliminatingthesourceofpathogencontamination
    ofdrinkingwaterseeBox34.2);hygieneimprove-
    ments(seeSection34.2.2);andhealthimpactassess-
    ments(HIAs)(toevaluatethepotentialhealthefects
    ofprojectsorpoliciesbeforetheyarebuiltorimple-
    mentedtoproviderecommendationstominimizead-
    versehealthoutcomesseeBox34.4).
    34.2.2Water-washeddiseases
    Incontrasttowaterbornediseases,water-washed
    diseasesaretransmittedwhenthequantityofwa-
    teravailableisinsufcientforwashingandpersonal
    hygiene.Predominantwater-washeddiseasesinclude
    diarrhoealdiseases(whicharealsowaterbornesee
    Section34.2.1),intestinalnematodesandtrachoma.
    Intestinalnematodeinfectionsincludingascariasis,
    trichuriasisandhookwormcauseapproximately
    2billioninfectionsandafectonethirdoftheworlds
    population(deSilvaetal.,2003).Approximately
    40millionpeopleareinfectedwithChlamydia trachoma-
    tis,theetiologicagentoftrachoma,and8.2millionhave
    blindingtrachomatoustrichiasis(Mariottietal.,2009).
    Figure34.3outlinestheenvironmenthealthpathway
    forwater-washeddiseases.Thedominantdriversare
    populationgrowthandagriculture.Improvedsanita-
    tion(Box34.2)andhygiene(Box34.3)wouldserveto
    signicantlyreducethediseaseburdens.
    Theseinterventionscontributetoreducingchildhoodun-
    dernutrition,asdiarrhoealdiseasesandintestinalnema-
    todeinfectionsarecloselytiedtochildhoodundernu-
    trition(Figure34.3).Repeateddiarrhoeaandintestinal
    nematodeinfectionsareresponsibleforapproximately
    halfofallchildhoodunderweightorundernutrition.
    Approximately70,000childrenunderveyearsolddie
    annuallyfrommalnutrition,andanadditional790,000
    diefrominfectiousdiseasestowhichtheyaremorevul-
    nerablebecauseoftheirnutritionalstatus.Thusrepeated
    diarrhoeaorintestinalnematodeinfectionsarerespon-
    siblefor860,000deathsduetomalnutritionperyearin
    childrenundertheageofve(Prss-stnetal.,2008).
    Sanitationinteractswithbothwaterborneandwater-
    washeddiseasegroupsandisanecessarycompo-
    nentofefectivepreventionoftheassociateddisease
    burdens,especiallydiarrhoea.Improvedsanitation
    hasbeenshowntoreducediarrhoealdiseaserates
    (Fewtrelletal.,2005;Moraesetal.,2003),intestinal
    nematodetransmission(Moraesetal.,2004)andtra-
    chomaprevalence(Emersonetal.,2004).
    Hygienereducesdiarrhoealdisease(e.g.Lubyetal.,
    2004)andtrachoma(Westetal.,1995),andispromot-
    edasapublichealthintervention(Box34.3).
    BOX 34.2
    Sanitationstrategiesfordiseaseprevention
    BOX 34.3
    Hygienepromotion
    Sanitationisthesafedisposalofhumanexcreta(WHO
    andUNICEF,2010),wheresafedisposalmeansthatex-
    cretaiscontainedortreatedtoavoidadverselyafecting
    thehealthoftheindividualorthatofotherpeople(Mara
    etal.,2010).Improvedsanitationcanpreventdiseaseby
    eliminatingthesourceofcontamination,bypreventing
    pathogenspreadbyies,andbypreventingexposureto
    pathogensincontaminatedelds.Most(99%)peoplein
    developedcountrieshaveaccesstoimprovedsanitation,
    whileonly53%haveaccessindevelopingcountries
    (WHOandUNICEF,2010).Two-thirdsoftheapproximate-
    ly2.6billionpeoplewholackaccesstoimprovedsani-
    tationliveinAsiaandsub-SaharanAfrica,andapproxi-
    mately1.2billionpeople,overhalfofwhomliveinIndia,
    defecateintheopen(WHOandUNICEF,2010).Mostof
    thoselackingimprovedsanitationindevelopingcountries
    arelocatedinruralareas:urbansanitationcoverageis71%
    indevelopingcountries,whileruralcoverageisonly39%
    (WHOandUNICEF,2010).Seweragesystems,septictanks
    withdrainagebeds,pour-ushlatrinesandpitlatrinescan
    efectivelypreventdiseaseifmaintainedandusedcon-
    sistently(WHOandUNICEF,2000).
    Hygienereferstopracticesthatpreventthespreadofdis-
    ease-causingorganisms.Meanstoachievehygieneinclude
    cleaning,suchashandwashing,whichremovesinfectious
    microbesinadditiontodirtandsoil.Alongwithimproved
    sanitationandstoringandusingsafedrinkingwater,wash-
    inghandscorrectlyandattherighttimesisakeybehav-
    iourforreducingthespreadofpathogens(EHP,2004).
    Hygienepromotionisaplannedapproachtoprevent-
    ingdiseasesthroughthewidespreadadoptionofsafe
    hygienepractices.Itbeginswith,andisbuiltonwhatlocal
    peopleknow,doandwant(UNICEF,1999,p.10).
    WWDR4 729 WATERANDHEALTH
    BOX 34.4
    Healthimpactassessmentspromotehealthacrossdiversesectors
    Ahealthimpactassessment(HIA)isacombinationofprocedures,methodsandtoolsbywhichapolicy,programorprojects
    maybejudgedastoitspotentialefectsonthehealthofapopulation,andthedistributionofthoseefectswithinthepopu-
    lation(WHO,1999,p.4).
    AnHIAobjectivelyevaluatesthepotentialhealthefectsofaprojectorpolicybeforeitisbuiltorimplementedandcaniden-
    tifymeanstoincreasepositivehealthoutcomesandminimizeadversehealthoutcomes.TheHIAframeworkbringspotential
    publichealthimpactsandconsiderationstothedecision-makingprocessforplans,projectsandpoliciesthatfalloutsidetra-
    ditionalpublichealtharenas,suchastransportation,agriculture,landuseandconstruction.Theseactivitiescangreatlyafect
    diseasetransmission,butareoftenplannedwithoutpublichealthconsequencesinmind.Cooperationbetweenhealth,agri-
    culturalanddevelopmentsectorscanleadtoreducedpathogentransmission.
    ThemajorstepsinconductinganHIAinclude:
    1.ScreenidentifyprojectsorpoliciesforwhichanHIAwouldbeuseful
    2. Scopeidentifywhichhealthefectstoconsider
    3. Assessrisksandbenetsidentifywhichpeoplemaybeafectedandhowtheymaybeafected
    4. Developrecommendationssuggestchangestoproposalstopromotepositiveormitigateadversehealthefects
    5.Reportpresenttheresultstodecision-makers
    6. EvaluatedeterminetheefectoftheHIA
    FIGURE 34.4
    Driver,pressure,state,exposure,efectandaction(DPSEEA)modelofwater-baseddiseases
    Driver
    Action
    Pressure State Exposure HealthEfect
    Population
    growth
    Agriculture
    Climatechange
    HealthImpact
    Assessment
    Environmental
    modication
    Environmental
    manipulation
    Improved
    sanitation
    Modifyormanipulate
    humanbehaviour
    Concentration
    ofpathogens
    Exposureto
    contaminatedwaters
    (e.g.bathing)
    Schistosomiasis
    Concentration
    ofintermediatehost
    Uncontained
    anduntreated
    excreta
    Changing
    environmental
    characteristics
    Damsandirrigation
    projects
    Strong
    LineThickness Strengthofassociation
    Intermediate
    Fair
    Note: The size of the health efect box varies with the corresponding global burden of disease in disability-adjusted life years: schistosomiasis,
    1,698,000 (disease burden estimates from Prss-stn et al., 2008).
    CHAPTER34 SPECIALREPORTS 730
    34.2.3Water-baseddiseases
    Water-baseddiseasesaretransmittedbyhoststhat
    liveinwaterorrequirewaterforpartoftheirlifecy-
    cle.Schistosomiasishasthelargestdiseaseburdenof
    thesediseases;atanyonegiventime,approximately
    200millionpeopleareinfectedwiththetrematodes
    ofthespeciesSchistosoma,whichcauseschistoso-
    miasis.Schistosomiasisisprincipallydrivenbypopula-
    tiongrowth,agriculture,climatechange,deforestation
    andinfrastructuresuchasdamsandirrigationprojects
    (Figure34.4).
    Efectiveinterventionsincludesanitation(Box34.2),
    environmentalmanagement(Box34.5)andtheuse
    ofHIAs(Box34.4).Sanitationcanreduceschisto-
    somiasisprevalenceby5787%(Esreyetal.,1991).
    Environmentalmanagementreducestransmissionby
    eradicatinghostsnailpopulations(e.g.byeliminating
    marshesandponds,drainingirrigationareas,clean-
    ingandremovingvegetationfromcanals,introducing
    predatorsandpathogens,orusingmolluscicides)and
    bylimitinghumancontactwithinfestedwaters.HIA
    appliedtothedesignandplanningofirrigationordam
    projectsenablesincorporationofpreventativesafe-
    guardsratherthanretrottingresponses.
    34.2.4Water-relatedinsectvectordiseases
    Water-relatedinsectvector-bornediseases(VBDs)
    arespreadbyinsectsthatbreedorfeednearwater.
    Themajorwater-relatedinsectVBDs(malaria,oncho-
    cerciasis,Japaneseencephalitis,lymphaticlariasis
    anddengue)areresponsibleformorethan1.5million
    deathsperyear.Driversofthesediseasesincludeagri-
    culture,climatechange,deforestation,inlandooding,
    infrastructureprojectssuchasdamsandirrigationpro-
    jects,andpopulationgrowth(Figures34.5and34.6).
    FIGURE 34.5
    Driver,pressure,state,exposure,efectandaction(DPSEEA)modelofthewater-relatedinsectvectordiseases
    malaria,onchocerciasis,JapaneseencephalitisandlymphaticlariasisinAfrica
    Driver
    Action
    Pressure State Exposure HealthEfect
    Agriculture
    Runof
    Hostpopulations
    Warming
    temperatures
    Favourablebreeding
    grounds
    Climatechange
    Deforestation
    Inlandooding
    Environmental
    modication
    Environmental
    manipulation
    Modifyormanipulate
    humanhabitation
    orbehaviour
    Concentration
    ofvectors
    Bittenby
    infectedvector
    Lympahitic
    lariasis
    Malaria
    Onchocerciasis
    Japanese
    encephalitis
    Infrastructure:
    dams,irrigation
    projects
    Populationgrowth
    Strong
    LineThickness Strengthofassociation
    Intermediate
    Fair
    Note: The size of the health efect boxes varies with the corresponding global burden of disease in disability-adjusted life years: malaria,
    19,241,000; onchocerciasis, 51,000; Japanese encephalitis, 671,000; lymphatic lariasis, 3,784,000 (disease burden estimates from Prss-stn
    et al., 2008).
    WWDR4 731 WATERANDHEALTH
    Historically,someofthemostefectivepublichealth
    measuresagainstwater-relatedinsectVBDshave
    beentargetedatthevector(tointerrupttransmis-
    sion),particularlyfordiseaseslackingvaccinessuch
    asmalariaanddengue(Gubler,1998).Suchpro-
    grammesareregainingfavourduetoenvironmental
    problemswithchemicalinsecticideprogrammesand
    insecticideresistance.Environmentalmanagementof
    water-relatedinsectVBDsispromotedbytheWHO
    (Box34.5).
    Environmentalmanagementhasbeenusedtosuc-
    cessfullycontrolthetransmissionofmalaria(Baeretal.,
    1999;Duaetal.,1997;HeierliandLengeler,2008),
    FIGURE 34.6
    Drivers,pressure,state,exposure,efectandaction(DPSEEA)modelofthewater-relatedinsectvector
    diseaseslymphaticlariasis(AsiaandtheAmericas)anddengue
    BOX 34.5
    Environmentalmanagementstrategiestoreduceandpreventvector-bornediseases
    Environmentalmanagementforvectorcontrolistheplanning,organization,carryingoutandmonitoringofactivitiesforthe
    modicationand/ormanipulationofenvironmentalfactorsortheirinteractionwithmanwithaviewtopreventingormini-
    mizingvectorpropagationandreducingman-vector-pathogencontact(WHO,1980,p.9).Thethreestrategiesare:
    1.Modicationoftheenvironment:permanentlychangingland,waterorvegetationconditionstoreducevectorhabitats,
    oftenusinginfrastructure.Examplesincludedrainingorlling-inwaterbodiesordepressions;modifyingriverboundaries;
    liningcanals;designingsmalldamsascascadingsystems;andcoveringoverheadtanksandotherwaterstoragestructures
    (Fewtrelletal.,2007).
    2. Manipulationoftheenvironment:recurrentactivities,oftenwithcommunityinvolvement,tocreatetemporarilyunfavourable
    conditionsforvectorpropagation.Examplesincluderemovalofaquaticplantsfromwaterbodieswheremosquitolarvae
    mayndshelter(de-weeding);alternatewettinganddryingofirrigatedelds(intermittentirrigation);periodicushingof
    waterwayswheremosquitobreedingoccursinstandingpools;screeningorttinghouseholdwaterstoragecontainerswith
    properlidstoexcludemosquitoes;andintroductionofpredatorssuchaslarvivoroussh(Fewtrelletal.,2007).
    3.Modicationormanipulationofhumanhabitationorbehaviour:reducecontactbetweenhumansandvectors.Examples
    includevaccination;zooprophylaxis;vectortrappingandcollection;bednets;doorandwindowscreens;andbetterhous-
    ingconstruction.
    Driver
    Action
    Pressure State Exposure HealthEfect
    Climatechange
    Warming
    temperatures
    Uncontainedand
    untreatedexcreta
    Generationof
    solidwaste
    Populationgrowth
    Environmental
    modication
    Improved
    sanitation
    Modifyormanipulate
    humanhabitation
    orbehaviour
    Concentration
    ofvectors
    Bittenby
    infectedvector
    Lymphaticlariasis
    Dengue
    Strong
    LineThickness Strengthofassociation
    Intermediate
    Fair
    Note: The size of the health efect boxes varies with the corresponding global burden of disease in disability-adjusted life years: lymphatic
    lariasis, 3,784,000; dengue, 586,000 (disease burden estimates from Prss-stn et al., 2008).
    CHAPTER34 SPECIALREPORTS 732
    onchocerciasis(Walsh,1970),Japaneseencephalitis
    (Keiseretal.,2005),dengueandlymphaticlariasis.
    Sanitationanddrinkingwateralsocontributeto
    water-relatedinsectVBDcontrol.Inurbanareasof
    southandSouth-EastAsiaandtheAmericas,the
    mosquitovectoroflymphaticlariasisbreedsin
    organically-pollutedwater,includingopensewerage
    drainsandwastewatertreatmentponds(Erlanger
    etal.,2005;Meyrowitschetal.,1998).Pipedwater
    suppliescontributetodenguecontrolbyeliminating
    theneedforwaterstoragecontainersinwhichthe
    mosquitovectorbreeds.
    34.3Trendsandhotspots
    Identifyingtrendsandhotspotsinwaterandhealthis
    challenging.Therearedifcultiesinmonitoringand
    reporting;informationondeterminantsislacking;and
    theinterplaybetweenenvironmentalandotherdeter-
    minantsisinsufcientlyunderstood.Currentmoni-
    toringandreportinglimitationsmakeitimpossible
    toquantifythewater-relateddiseaseburdeninmost
    countries.Reportingconstraintsincludealackofreli-
    ablemorbidityandmortalitydata;variationswithin
    andbetweencountriesinthecoverageandquality
    ofcasereporting;aswellasvariationsinaccessto
    healthcareservicesandthethoroughnessofdisease
    surveillance.Therearealsomultipleenvironmental
    determinantsconcurrentlyafectinghumanhealth
    withinthesocial,economicandphysicalenvironment.
    Theseincludeaccesstoandqualityofhealthcare,
    nutrition,education,governance,socio-economic
    statusandresourceavailability.Non-environmental
    determinantsofhealthapersonsindividual
    characteristicsandbehavioursalsodetermine
    diseasetrends.Somecharacteristics,includingage
    andsex,canbeeasilyobtained.Others,suchas
    healthstatusandgeneticmake-up,arenotreadily
    available.
    Theinabilitytoidentifytrendsandhotspotsimpairs
    ourabilitytomakewell-informedpolicyandre-
    sourcemanagementdecisions.Nevertheless,avail-
    ableinsightsgiveabasisforaction.Somedisease
    risksarerising(e.g.seeFigure34.7),andreasons
    fortheseincreasescanbeaddressed.Threeexam-
    plesareprovidedbelowthatillustratethecomplex
    natureofdiseaseriskandhighlighthowprevention,
    controlandmitigationarebeinginvestigatedand
    implemented.
    34.3.1Cholera
    Choleraisanacutediarrhoealdiseasecausedbythe
    ingestionoffoodorwatercontaminatedwiththebacte-
    riumVibrio cholerae.Thereareanestimated35million
    choleracasesand100,000120,000deathsdueto
    choleraeachyear(theWHOestimatesthat510%of
    casesarereported).Thenumberofcasesreportedto
    theWHOincreasedby43%in2010comparedto2009,
    andthisnumberhasincreasedby130%overthelast
    decade(Figure34.7)(WHO,2010a).Choleraoccursin
    regionswithpoorsocio-economicconditions,rudi-
    mentarysanitarysystems,andwherepublichygiene
    andsafedrinkingwaterislacking(Huqetal.,1996).It
    isendemicinpartsofAfrica,AsiaandtheAmericas.
    Riskfactorsinendemicregionscanincludeproximity
    tosurfacewaters,highpopulationdensitiesandedu-
    cationallevels(Alietal.,2001),whiletemperature,sa-
    linity,sunlight,pHlevels,iron,aswellasphytoplankton
    andzooplanktongrowthfactorsafectV. choleraeitself
    (Lippetal.,2002).Figure34.8describesenvironmen-
    talcholeratransmission(Lippetal.,2002).Therisk
    ofcholeraoutbreaksisintensiedduringhumanitar-
    iancrises,suchasconictsandoods,andwhenlarge
    populationsaredisplaced.The2010increaseislargely
    duetotheoutbreakthatstartedinHaitiinOctober
    2010.At-riskareasincludeperi-urbanslumswithout
    basicwaterandsanitationinfrastructure,andrefugee
    camps,whereminimumrequirementsforsafewater
    andsanitationarenotmet.There-emergenceofchol-
    erahascoincidedwithincreasingpopulationslivingin
    unsanitaryconditions(Barrettetal.,1998).
    FIGURE 34.7
    CholeracasesreportedtotheWorldHealth
    Organizationbetween2000and2010
    Source: Adapted from WHO (2011a).
    350,000
    300,000
    250,000
    200,000
    150,000
    100,000
    50,000
    0
    Numberofcases
    Year
    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
    WWDR4 733 WATERANDHEALTH
    Upto80%ofcholeracasescanbeefectivelytreated
    usingoralrehydrationsalts.Howeverpreventionrelies
    onavailabilityanduseofsafewaterandimprovedsani-
    tationandhygiene.Preventionstrategiesarecriticalto
    avertingormitigatingcholeraoutbreaks.Inthecaseof
    theHaitioutbreak,thecountryshealthresponseled
    bytheMinistryofPublicHealthandPopulationand
    supportedbytheWHOandotherpartnersincorpo-
    ratesmultiplepublichealthsolutions:deliveryofsoap
    forhandwashing;deliveryofchlorineandotherprod-
    uctsordevicesforhouseholdwatertreatment;con-
    structionoflatrines;improvedhygieneinpublicplaces
    (markets,schools,healthcarefacilitiesandprisons);and
    healtheducationthroughvariousmediaincludingcom-
    munitymobilizers(WHO,2010b).Infact,theavailability
    ofsafewatersuppliesmayprovetobemoreimportant
    forcombatingcholerathanantibioticsorvaccines.A
    recentstudyshowedthatprovisionofsafewatermay
    avert105,000casesofcholera(95%condenceinterval
    [CI]88,000116,000)and1,500deaths(95%CI1,100
    2,300)inHaitibetweenMarch2011andNovember2011,
    morethantheestimatedindividualefectsofantibiotics
    orvaccines(AndrewsandBasu,2011).
    Withincreasingpopulationslivinginperi-urbanslums
    andrefugeecamps,aswellasincreasingnumbersof
    peopleexposedtotheimpactsofhumanitariancrises,
    theriskfromcholerawilllikelyincreaseworldwide,re-
    inforcingtheneedforsafedrinkingwater,adequate
    sanitationandimprovedhygienebehaviourunder
    theseconditions.
    34.3.2Harmfulalgalblooms
    Harmfulalgalblooms(HABs)comprisealgaethatare
    harmfultohumans,plantsoranimals(mostalgalspe-
    ciesarenon-toxicnaturalcomponentsofmarineand
    freshwaterecosystems).WhileHABsdonotrepresent
    amajorglobaldiseaseburden,bloomdetectionisin-
    creasinganditislikelythatdiseaseincidencewillsimi-
    larlyincrease.Thecausesofincreasedbloomdetection
    includenaturalandanthropogenicspeciesdispersal,
    nutrientpollution,climatechange,aswellasincreased
    surveillance(GranliandTurner,2006).Approximately
    60,000casesandclustersofhumanintoxicationoccur
    annually(VanDolahetal.,2001).Althoughisnotfully
    understoodhowHABsafecthumanhealth,authorities
    monitorHABsanddevelopguidelinestomitigatetheir
    impacts.Forexample,theUnitedStatesEnvironmental
    ProtectionAgencyhasaddedspecicHAB-relatedal-
    gaetoitsDrinkingWaterContaminantCandidateList,
    whichidentiespriorityorganismsandtoxinsforin-
    vestigation.Directcontrol(biological,chemical,genet-
    icandenvironmentalmanipulation)ofHABsismore
    difcultandcontroversialthanmitigation,andHAB
    Source: Lipp et al. (2002, g. 1, p. 763, reproduced with permission from The American Society for Microbiology).
    FIGURE 34.8
    Hierarchicalmodelforenvironmentalcholeratransmission
    Ingestionof
    infectiousdose
    ofV. cholerae
    V. cholerae
    proliferatein
    associationwith
    commensalcopepods
    Algaepromotesurvival
    ofV. cholerae andprovidefood
    forzooplankton
    Abioticconditionsfavourgrowthof
    V. cholerae and/orplanktonand
    expressionofvirulence
    Transmissiontohumans
    Zooplankton:copepods,
    othercrustaceans
    Phytoplanktonand
    aquaticplants
    Temperature,pH
    Fe
    3+
    ,salinity,
    sunlight
    SeasonalEfects
    Sunlight
    Temperature
    Precipitation
    Monsoons
    ClimateVariability
    Climatechange
    ElNio-SouthernOscillation
    NorthAtlanticOscillation
    Vibrio cholerae
    Human
    socio-economics,
    demographics,
    sanitation
    CHAPTER34 SPECIALREPORTS 734
    preventionishamperedbyalackofunderstandingof
    thecausesofHABbloomsandaninabilitytomodify
    orcontroldeterminants.Forexample,nutrients(from
    agriculture,householdsandindustry)contributetothe
    growthofHABs,andmuchofthenutrientinputcomes
    fromnon-pointsources(Andersonetal.,2002),which
    aredifculttocontrol.Efectivestrategiesincludeland
    usemanagement,maintaininglandscapeintegrityand
    reducingnon-pointsourcepollution(Piehler,2008).
    34.3.3Dengue
    In2004,approximately9millionpeoplecontracted
    thefebrileillnessdengue(WHO,2008a),theglobal
    incidenceofwhichisrising.Approximately2.5billion
    peoplearenowatrisk.Becausethereisnodrugor
    vaccineforthevirus,preventioniskey.Dengueis
    transmittedbytheAedes aegyptiandAedes albopictus
    mosquitoes,whichbreedintemporarywaterstorage
    containers.Thussafestorageofhouseholdwatersup-
    pliesiscriticalfordengueprevention,especiallywhere
    rainwaterharvestingispractisedandwherelarge
    householdstoragevesselsareused(e.g.Mariappan,
    2008).Householdwatercontainerscanbettedwith
    screensorlidstoexcludemosquitoes,butscrupulous
    maintenanceandconsistentuseishardtoachieve.
    Coverstreatedwithinsecticidecanreducevector
    densityandpotentiallyimpactdenguetransmission
    (Kroegeretal.,2006;Sengetal.,2008).Watercon-
    tainerscanalsobeeliminatedwithpipedwatersup-
    plies;however,extensionofpipedwatersuppliesto
    villageshasexpandedtherangeofdengue,whereun-
    reliablepipedwaterhasforcedpeopletostorewater
    intheirhomesforlongerperiodsoftimethanwhen
    theyreliedonwellwater(e.g.Nguyenetal.,2011).An
    integratedapproach,incorporatinghouseholdwater
    treatmentandsafestorageforreductionofdiarrhoeal
    aswellasotherwater-associateddiseases(e.g.den-
    gueandmalaria)isneeded.
    34.4Solutionoptions
    Modellingtheenvironmenthealthpathwayforeach
    ofthemajorthreatsassociatedwithwaterandhealth
    (Section34.2)assistsindeterminingtheefectiveness
    ofpublichealthsolutionsforcombatingwater-related
    diseaserisks.However,furtherdeterminationofthe
    populationsatgreatestriskforeachofthesethreats
    wouldallowresourcestobetargetedmoreefectively.
    Inthissection,regionssusceptibletoveofthedis-
    easesdescribedaboveareusedtoillustratehowgov-
    ernments,communitiesandorganizationsapplypublic
    healthsolutionstothesechallenges.
    34.4.1DiarrhoealdiseasesinIndia
    Diarrhoealdiseasesareaglobalproblem.Theyarees-
    peciallyprevalentinlowincomecountries,wherethey
    arethethirdleadingcauseofdeath,andamongchil-
    drenunderveyears,forwhodiarrhoealdiseasesare
    responsiblefor17%ofalldeaths(Mathersetal.,2008).
    Diarrhoealdiseasescause454,000deathsannuallyin
    Indiaalone(NCMH,2005),despitethefactthatthe
    populationusingimprovedwatersourceshasrisen
    from72%in1990to88%in2008(WHOandUNICEF,
    2010).Urbandwellershavemoreaccesstoimproved
    watersources(WHOandUNICEF,2010)andpiped
    watersupplies69%ofhouseholdsinlargecities
    (McKenzieandRay,2009).Nevertheless,watersup-
    plyinmostIndiancitiesisavailableforafewhours
    perdayandwaterqualityisquestionable(McKenzie
    andRay,2009).Problemswithaccessandqual-
    ityaremainlyattributedtopoormanagementand
    inadequateregulation(PlanningCommission,2002).
    Watersupplyisastateresponsibility,butvariousmin-
    istriesshareresponsibilityatcentralandstatelevels.
    Institutionalarrangementsforwatersupplyvarywithin
    cities:astate-levelagencyisresponsibleforplanning
    andinvestment,andlocalgovernmentisresponsible
    foroperationandmaintenance.Localgovernmentsare
    increasinglyturningoperatingandmaintenancere-
    sponsibilitiestoprivatecompanies.Thisfragmentation
    resultsinduplicationandambiguityoffunctions;poor
    coordinationbetweenthewatersupplyprogramme
    andhealthandeducationprogrammes;andawater
    systemthatdoesnotaimtoreducediseaseandpov-
    erty,nortoimprovehygieneandeducation(Planning
    Commission,2002).
    34.4.2IntestinalnematodeinfectionsinBrazil
    Intestinalnematodeinfectionsarefrequentinlowin-
    comecountries,especiallyinchildrenunder15years,
    withhighintensityinfectionscommoninAfrica,South-
    EastAsiaandthewesternPacic(WHO,2008a).
    Salvadoristhelargestcityonthenorth-eastcoast
    ofBrazilandthecapitalofthenorth-easternstateof
    Bahia.In1997,26%ofhouseholdswereconnectedto
    animprovedsanitationsystem,andmostofthesewere
    inupperandmiddlesocio-economicareas(Barretoet
    al.,2007).Otherareasusedseptictanksorinsanitary
    methodssuchasdischargingsewageintothestreet
    (Barretoetal.,2007).Intestinalnematodeprevalence
    was43%forTrichuris trichuria,33%forAscaris lum-
    bricoidesand10%forhookworms(Mascarini-Serra
    etal.,2010).Alargesanitationproject(BahiaAzul
    orBlueBay),mainlynancedbyaloanfromthe
    WWDR4 735 WATERANDHEALTH
    Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,wasinitiatedto
    increasethenumberofhouseholdswithadequate
    seweragesystemsfrom26%to80%andhencecontrol
    thepollutionofmarinewatersbydomesticwastewater.
    ApproximatelyhalfthetotalbudgetofUS$440million
    wasallocatedforconstructing2,000kmofsewerpipes,
    86pumpingstationsandover300,000household
    connectionsbetween1996and2004(Barretoetal.,
    2010).TheprevalenceofA. lumbricoides, T. trichuria
    andhookworminschoolchildrenwasreducedby25%,
    33%and82%,respectively(Barretoetal.,2010).
    34.4.3TrachomaandtrichiasisinMorocco
    Thehighestprevalenceofactivetrachomaandtrichi-
    asisisinAfrica,predominantlyinthesavannahre-
    gionsofEastandCentralAfricaandtheSahelofWest
    Africa(Polacketal.,2005).Moroccowastherst
    countrytoeliminatetrachomaintheAllianceforthe
    GlobalEliminationofBlindingTrachomabytheyear
    2020(GET2020)campaign.Trachomawaslargely
    eradicatedfromurbanareasinthe1970sand1980s
    byincreasedstandardsoflivingandantibiotictreat-
    mentofschoolchildren,butthediseasepersistedin
    poorerruralregions.IncorporationoftheSAFE(sur-
    gery,antibiotics,facialcleanlinessandenvironmen-
    talimprovement)strategyintotheNationalBlindness
    ControlProgramenabledMoroccotoeradicatetra-
    choma(MontgomeryandBartram,2010).Poorfacial
    cleanlinessisconsistentlyassociatedwithtrachoma
    (Tayloretal.,1989;Westetal.,1991;Westetal.,1996)
    andislikelythemostimportantmodiableriskfactor
    (Wrightetal.,2008).KeytothesuccessofMoroccos
    programmewasitsaggressiveapproachtoprovide
    safedrinkingwaterandimprovedsanitationforat-risk
    populations(KumaresanandMecaskey,2003).
    34.4.4MalariainAfrica
    Malariaiswidespreadintropicalandsubtropicalre-
    gions,includingmostofsub-SaharanAfrica,Asiaand
    theAmericas.Approximately3.3billionpeopleareat
    risk.InAfrica,malariaisresponsiblefor27%ofdeaths
    inchildrenunderve(Blacketal.,2010).TheRoll
    BackMalariacampaignfocusesoncontrollingmalaria
    insub-SaharanAfricawithpreventionandcaseman-
    agement.Theprincipalinterventionsarelonglasting
    insecticidetreatedmosquitonets(LLINs)andindoor
    residualspraying(IRS)(WHO,2010c).Environmental
    managementisrarelyapplied.Nevertheless,environ-
    mentalmanagementcanbeefcaciousandcost-ef-
    fective.Utzingerandothers(2001)reviewedama-
    lariacontrolprogrammeatcopperminesintheformer
    NorthernRhodesia(nowZambia),ahyperendemic
    area,between1929and1949.Theprogrammeimple-
    mentedmultiplecontrolmethods,manyofwhichwere
    environmentalmanagementmethods,includingvege-
    tationclearance,modicationofriverboundaries,drain-
    ingswamps,oilapplicationtoopenwaterbodies,house
    screening,aswellasquinineadministrationandbednet
    provision(Watson,1953).Utzingerandothersdeter-
    minedefcacyandcost-efectivenesscomparedtocur-
    rentmalariacontrol.Withintherstthreetoveyears
    oftheprogrammeitwasobservedthatmalaria-related
    mortality,morbidityandincidenceratesreducedby70
    95%,andbetween1929and1949theprogrammeavert-
    ed4,173deathsand161,205malariaattacks(Utzinger
    etal.,2001).Thecostperdeathaverted(US$858)is
    similartothatforinsecticidetreatednetsinGambia,
    Ghana,KenyaandSouthAfrica(US$219US$2,958)
    (GoodmanandMills,1999;Goodmanetal.,2001),
    andthecostpermalariaattackaverted(US$22.20)
    isslightlyhigherthanthecostforinsecticidetreated
    netsinGambia(US$15.75)(Graves,1998).Currently,
    environmentalmanagementisviewedascomplemen-
    tarytoothermalariacontrolmethodsinaminorityof
    settingswheremosquitobreedingsitesarefew,xed,
    andeasytoidentify,mapandtreat(WHO,2010c)
    butitmaybebenecialtofurtherintegrateenviron-
    mentalmanagementwithpharmacological,insecti-
    cidalandbednetinterventionstodecreaseadverse
    ecologicalefectsfromchemicalsprayingandincrease
    sustainabilityofmalariaprogrammes.
    34.4.5SchistosomiasisinLaoPDR
    Schistosomiasisispredominantintropicalandsub-
    tropicalareas,especiallyinpoorcommunitieswithout
    accesstosafedrinkingwaterandadequatesanita-
    tion.ItismostprevalentinAfrica(88%ofallcases)
    (WHO,2008a).Asignicantriskfactorforschistoso-
    miasisisproximitytoirrigationschemesordams.Of
    theestimated779millionpeopleatriskforschistoso-
    miasis,13.6%liveinirrigationschemesorclosetolarge
    damreservoirs(Steinmannetal.,2006).Thehealth
    impactsofdevelopmentprojectssuchasthesewere
    rarelyaddressedbecausehealthwasconsideredthe
    responsibilityofthehealthsector.Thespreadandin-
    tensicationofdiseasessuchasschistosomiasisand
    malariawereunintendedconsequencesofhydropower
    andirrigationprojects(Jobin,1999;Scudder,2005;
    Southgate,1997;Steinmannetal.,2006).Thereisan
    opportunitytoimprovepublichealthbyincorporat-
    ingHIAsintonon-healthsectorpolicies(Fewtrelletal.,
    2008).UseofHIAsfordevelopmentprojectshasbeen
    CHAPTER34 SPECIALREPORTS 736
    increasing,buttheirinuenceondecision-makingis
    limitedbyvariouschallenges.Onechallengeisthe
    availabilityofdataforquantitativeHIAs,especiallyfor
    projects,programmesandpolicieswithindeveloping
    countries(Fewtrelletal.,2008).Nevertheless,anHIA
    wasusedindraftingthepublichealthmanagement
    planfortheNamTheun2hydroelectricprojectinLao
    PDR(Kriegeretal.,2008).Throughsitevisits,discus-
    sionswithstakeholders,andgatheringandanalysisof
    (mainlyqualitative)healthandeconomicdata,groups
    mostatriskforspecicadversehealthefectswere
    identiedandmitigationstrategiessuggested(Krieger
    etal.,2008).Schistosomiasiswasnotconsideredto
    poseagreatrisk,andnowthatthedamisoperat-
    ing,theHIAsabilitytopredictandavertthisdisease
    (andothers)canbeevaluated.HIAsshouldbepartof
    theplanning,implementationandoperationofde-
    velopmentprojectstoefcientlyavertadversehealth
    efects.
    Protectionofpublichealthrequirespractitionerstoact
    outsidethenarrowlydenedhealthsector(Rehfuess
    etal.,2009).Publichealthprofessionalsmustcollabo-
    ratewidelytochangethewayenergyisgenerated,
    landismanaged,foodisproducedandtransportation
    ismanagedinordertoimprovethehealthofboththe
    populationandtheenvironment(BartramandPlatt,
    2010).Policy-makersandprojectmanagersindiverse
    sectorsmustincorporatehealthconcernsintodeci-
    sion-making.Thebenetsanddisadvantagesofdevel-
    opmentprojectscouldbemorethoroughlyassessed
    ifdecision-makingwerebettercoordinatedacross
    agencies.
    Conclusions
    Thisreportexaminesthewater-relateddiseasesthat
    contributethegreatestburdenofdiseasegloballyand
    thatarerealisticallyamenabletochange:diarrhoeal
    diseases,arsenicanduoridepoisoning,intestinal
    nematodes,trachoma,schistosomiasis,malaria,on-
    chocerciasis,Japaneseencephalitis,lymphaticlaria-
    sisanddengue.Usinganenvironmenthealthpathway
    andtheDPSEEAframework,thedriverspredictedto
    havethegreatestefectondiseaseviathewaterenvi-
    ronmentareidentiedaspopulationgrowth,agricul-
    ture,infrastructuredevelopmentandclimatechange.
    Theseafectdiseaseratesbothdirectlyandindirectly,
    andincreaseuncertaintyforhumanhealth.
    Therearenumerousotherenvironmentalandnon-
    environmentaldeterminantsofhealth.Theinterplayof
    thesewiththedriversinvestigatedheremaydrastically
    alterpredictedmorbidityandmortalityrates.These
    determinantswillnotbeproportionalbetweengeo-
    graphicareasorbetweenvariouspopulations,making
    theidenticationoftrendsandhotspotsinwaterand
    healthnearlyimpossible.
    Whilethisknowledgegapsomewhatimpairsourabil-
    itytomakewell-informedpolicyandresourceman-
    agementdecisions,itcannotbeusedasanexcusefor
    complacency.Byoutliningtheenvironmenthealth
    pathwayforeachofthemajorwater-relateddisease
    groups,vekeypublichealthinterventionswereiden-
    tied:accesstosafedrinkingwaterandsanitation,im-
    provedhygiene,environmentalmanagementandthe
    useofHIAs.Implementationoftheseactionswould
    contributetoreducingtheburdensofdiversediseases
    andimprovethequalityoflifeforbillionsofpeople.
    ThiswasreafrmedinMay2011,whenresolutionson
    drinking-water,sanitationandhealthandonCholera:
    mechanismforpreventionandcontrolwereunani-
    mouslyadoptedatthesixty-fourthWorldHealth
    Assembly(WHO,2011c).Theseresolutionsxthepol-
    icyframeworkfortheWHO,itssisterUnitedNations
    agencies,inparticularUNICEF,andtheministriesof
    healthinits193MemberStatestotakedeterminedac-
    tiontopromoteaccesstosafeandcleandrinkingwa-
    ter,andtopromotebasicsanitationandhygieneprac-
    tices.MemberStateswereurgedtore-afrmastrong
    rolefordrinkingwater,sanitationandhygieneintheir
    publichealthstrategies.
    Actionsforcombatingthemajorwater-relateddisease
    burdenscanbepursuedatdiferentlevels:
    Theformulationofpoliciesandthecreationofinsti-
    tutionalarrangementsresultinginanenablingenvi-
    ronment(e.g.HIAs).
    Networkingtobringtogetherprofessionalsas
    promotedbyWHO-hostedinternationalnetworks
    (drinkingwaterregulatorsnetwork;smallcommuni-
    tywatersuppliesmanagementnetwork),theWHO/
    UNICEFnetworkonhouseholdwatertreatment
    andsafestorage,andtheWHO/InternationalWater
    Associationnetworkonoperationandmaintenance.
    Strengtheningnormativecapacitiessuchasthe
    fourtheditionoftheWHOguidelinesfordrinking
    waterquality(WHO,2011b)andthewatersafety
    planningapproachastheinstrumenttoimplement
    them(Bartrametal.,2009).
    WWDR4 737 WATERANDHEALTH
    Monitoringandsurveillanceincludingglobal
    monitoringbytheWHO/UNICEFJointMonitoring
    ProgrammeonWaterSupplyandSanitation
    andbytheUN-Water/WHOGlobalAnalysisand
    AssessmentofSanitationandDrinking-waterto
    guidepolicies,resourceallocation,andactionsto
    achievethemillenniumdevelopmentgoalstarget
    andprovideaplatformforthedevelopmentofindi-
    catorsandtargetsforpost-2015monitoringlinked
    tocriteriaforthehumanrighttowaterandsanita-
    tion(WHOandUNICEF,2011).
    Inadditiontoreinforcingthesepublichealthsolutions,
    outliningtheenvironmenthealthpathwayforeach
    diseasealsoenabledtheidenticationofmajorrisks,
    uncertaintiesandopportunities.Theseincludetherisk
    ofincreasingfailuresofageingwaterinfrastructure
    and,conversely,theopportunitytoincreasetheoverall
    impactofwaterresource,watersupplyandsanitation
    infrastructurethroughimprovedmanagement.Theim-
    pactofsuchactionsimprovesuseoflimitednancial
    resourcestherebyenhancingbothaccesstowaterand
    sanitationandassociatedservicequality,andleads
    indirectlytoimprovementsinwiderhealthindicators
    suchasmalnutrition.In-depthstudiesarerequiredto
    moreaccuratelyidentifytherisksandopportunities
    relatedtowaterandhealth.The2030VisionStudy,
    commissionedbytheUnitedKingdomDepartmentfor
    InternationalDevelopment(DFID)andtheWHO,per-
    formedsuchananalysisofthemajorrisks,uncertain-
    tiesandopportunitiesrelatedtotheresilienceofwater
    supplyandsanitationinthefaceofclimatechange
    (WHOandDFID,2009).Thestudybroughttogether
    evidencefromprojectionsonclimatechange,trends
    intechnologyapplication,anddevelopingknowledge
    aboutdrinkingwaterandsanitationadaptabilityand
    resiliencetoidentifykeypolicy,planningandopera-
    tionalchangesthatwillberequiredtoadapttoclimate
    change,particularlyinlowandmiddleincomecoun-
    trieswhereaccesstowatersupplyandsanitationserv-
    icesaremorelimited.Fivekeyconclusionsresulted
    fromthisstudy:
    1.Climatechangeiswidelyperceivedasathreatrather
    thananopportunity.Theremaybesignicantover-
    allbenetstohealthanddevelopmentinadapting
    toclimatechange.
    2.Majorchangesinpolicyandplanningareneeded
    ifongoingandfutureinvestmentsarenottobe
    wasted.
    3. Potentialadaptivecapacityishighbutrarely
    achieved.Resilienceneedstobeintegratedinto
    drinkingwaterandsanitationmanagementtocope
    withpresentclimatevariability.Itwillbecriticalin
    controllingadverseefectsoffuturevariability.
    4.Althoughsomeoftheclimatetrendsatregional
    levelsareuncertain,thereissufcientknowledge
    toinformurgentandprudentchangesinpolicyand
    planninginmostregions.
    5.Thereareimportantgapsinourknowledgethatal-
    readyorsoonwillimpedeefectiveaction.Targeted
    researchisurgentlyneededtollgapsintechnol-
    ogyandbasicinformation,todevelopsimpletools,
    andtoprovideregionalinformationonclimate
    change.
    Therelationshipbetweenthedriversofwater-related
    diseasesandhumanhealthiscomplex.Protectionof
    humanhealthcannotbeaccomplishedwithoutinter-
    sectoralcollaboration.Policiesandprojectsinnon-wa-
    terornon-healthsectorsmustincorporatehealthinto
    decision-makingtoavoidunintendedpublichealth
    consequencesandtoincreaseoverallbenets.Inthe
    caseofdrinkingwaterquality,addressingtheroot
    causesofwatercontaminationismoreefectiveand
    sustainablethenreactingtoproblems.Theguidelines
    fordrinkingwaterquality(WHO,2011b)emphasize
    collaborationbetweenstakeholders,includingland
    usersorhouseholderswhomaydischargeindustrial,
    agriculturalordomesticwaste;policy-makersfrom
    variousministriesoverseeingtheimplementationand
    enforcementofenvironmentalregulations;practition-
    ersdeliveringwater;andconsumers.Thispreventive
    andcollaborativeapproachtowardswatersafetyplan-
    ningyieldscost-savingsandsustainableimprovements.
    Experiencehasalsoshown,mostrecentlyfromsouth
    andeastAsia,thatwhileprogressisbeingmade,it
    remainsachallengetoimplementsucharigorousno
    short-cutapproacheachriskmanagementsolution
    needstobetailor-madetothewatersupplyinques-
    tion,anddemandsthatkeystakeholdersbecomeen-
    gagedandcommittedtoacommongoal.

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    WWAP,withspecialthankstotheWWAPGenderAdvisoryGroup

    AuthorVasudhaPangare
    AcknowledgementsFeedbackreceivedfromtheWWAPAdvisoryGrouponGender
    Equalitywasusefulinnalizingthechapter.Theauthorwouldliketoacknowledge
    GlserCorat,KusumAthukoralaandMarciaBrewster.
    CHAPTER 35
    Water and gender
    Shutterstock/PavelSvoboda

    Improving womens access to safe water for productive and consumptive uses will not only
    help increase food production globally, but also improve food, health and livelihood security
    at community and household levels.
    35.1Introduction
    Thegendergapinwaterarisesfromgenderdivisions
    insociety,whichallocatemanywaterresponsibili-
    tiestowomenbutvestmostwater-relatedpowers
    andrightsinmen.Toimprovethebalancebetween
    responsibilitiesandpowersandrights,changesneed
    tobemadeinwaterpolicy,planningandmanagement.
    Thegendergapwillbereducedwhenbothmenand
    womenareabletochallengegender-basedunequal
    waterrolesandallocations,andparticipateindecision-
    makingatdiferentlevels.
    Amongthemanychallengesinwaterfacedacrossthe
    world,scarcity,deterioratingwaterquality,thelinkag-
    esbetweenwaterandfoodsecurityandtheneedfor
    improvedgovernancearemostsignicantinthecon-
    textofgenderdiferencesintheaccesstoandcontrol
    overwaterresources.Thesechallengesareexpected
    tobecomemoreintenseduetothegrowinguncertain-
    tyandriskassociatedwiththeavailabilityandquality
    offreshwaterresourcesarisingfromincreasingde-
    mandforvarioususes,climatevariabilityandnatural
    disasters.
    Waterisusedforawiderangeofsocialandeconomic
    activities,includingpublichealth,agriculture,energy
    andindustry.Waterhasdiferentvaluesfordiferent
    usesandpurposes,andthesamesourceofwatercan
    beusedforsocialaswellaseconomicpurposes.Social
    andenvironmentalvaluationismoreprevalentatthe
    locallevel,wherewatersourcesmaybedesignatedfor
    diferentuses,suchasfordrinking,orforcommonuse,
    suchasbathingandwashing,dependingonthequal-
    ityofwater,orregardedassacredforreligiouspurpos-
    es.Infact,waterthathasbeenvaluedasaneconomic
    good,suchasirrigationwatersuppliedthroughan
    irrigationscheme,alsohasasocialvalueforlocalcom-
    munities,especiallyforwomen,whomayusethesame
    irrigationwatersourceforbothdomesticandfarming
    purposes.Opportunitiesforimprovingaccesstowater
    forwomenandimprovingtheirwatersecuritycanbe
    foundbyanalysingwatervaluesthroughthegenderlens.
    Waterpoliciesbasedonbroad,generalizedperspec-
    tivesaremorelikelytomissoutlocalknowledge,and
    socialandgenderdimensionsandtheirimplications.
    Recognizingthevariouspurposesforwhichtheselo-
    calwaterresourcesareusedbydiferentgroupsof
    menandwomeninthecommunitywouldhelpsuc-
    cessfullyintegrategenderconsiderationsnotonlyin
    waterresourcemanagement,butalsoinsectorssuch
    asurbanwatersupply,agriculture,industryanden-
    ergythatdependuponwaterresources,andwhich
    areofteninconictoverwaterallocationsandtheir
    demandforfreshwaterresources.Byworkingtogether
    inpartnershipwiththesesectors,synergiesandtrade-
    ofsinprovidingaccesstodiferentgroupsofmenand
    womeninlocalcommunitiescanbeunderstoodand
    addressedbydecision-makersingovernmentbod-
    ies,privatesectorsandcivilsociety.Thiswouldhelp
    inanticipatingrisksanduncertaintiesandplanningfor
    safe-guardstobeputinplaceforthemostvulnerable
    groupsinthecommunity.
    35.2Challengesandopportunities
    35.2.1Genderdimensionsofwaterscarcity
    Aboutathirdoftheworldspopulationisexperienc-
    ingsomekindofphysicaloreconomicwaterscarcity
    (IFAD,2007).Amongthemanycausesofscarcity,the
    growingcompetitionforwaterfromdiferentsectors,
    includingindustry,agriculture,powergeneration,do-
    mesticuseandtheenvironment,iscreatinganacute
    crisisforpoorpeople,makingitdifcultforthemto
    accesswaterforconsumptive,productiveandsocial
    uses.Thescarcitycreatedatthelocallevelfromthis
    crisisisincreasinginequitywithinlocalcommunities
    withregardtoaccessandcontroloverlocalwaterre-
    sources,afectingpoorpeople,andpoorwomenthe
    most.Physicalscarcity,especiallyinaridandsemi-
    aridregionsisincreasingduetoclimatevariability,
    droughtsandpopulationpressures.Thedrudgeryand
    healthconsequencesforwomenintheseregions,es-
    peciallyforpoorwomen,andtheirincreasedwork
    Source: WHO and UNICEF (2010).
    BOX 35.1
    Womencarrythewaterburden
    Thereare884millionpeopleintheworldwhostilldo
    notgettheirwaterfromimprovedsources,almostallof
    themindevelopingregions.Forfamilieswithoutadrink-
    ingwatersourceonthepremises,itisusuallywomenwho
    gotothesourcetocollectdrinkingwater.Surveysfrom
    45developingcountriesshowthatthisisthecaseinal-
    mosttwothirdsofhouseholds,whileinalmostaquarter
    ofhouseholdsitismenwhousuallycollectthewater.In
    12%ofhouseholds,childrencarrythemainresponsibility
    forcollectingwater,withgirlsunder15yearsofagebeing
    twiceaslikelytocarrythisresponsibilityasboysunder
    theageof15years.
    CHAPTER35 SPECIALREPORTS 744
    WWDR4 745 WATERANDGENDER
    burdeninacquiringwaterforhomeconsumptionis
    verywell-documented.
    Waterscarcitycanoccurorbeexperienceddueto
    socialandgenderconstructsorsocialandeconomic
    diferenceswithinthesociety,andcustomarybehav-
    iourthatdiscriminatesagainstwomenandthesocially
    disadvantaged.Whenaccesstolocalwatersources
    isdeniedtoasectionofthepopulation,thosepeople
    experiencescarcity.Accesscanbedeniedduetocaste
    (asinIndia)andclassdiferencesorbecauseofcon-
    ictbetweenethniccommunities.Womenmayalso
    bedeniedaccesstowaterwherethecommunitywater
    supplyislocatedonthepropertyofthevillagehead-
    manoralocalofcial.
    Scarcitycanalsobecausedbythedeterioratingqual-
    ityoffreshwaterresources.Whenwatersourcesare
    polluted,thequantityofcleanwaterorsafedrink-
    ingwaterinaparticularlocationisreduced.Although
    thereareacceptedminimumstandardsforwaterqual-
    ity,therearealsoconcernsandculturalbeliefsthat
    determineandinuencetheuseofdiferentsourcesof
    waterfordiferentpurposes,suchasdrinking,cook-
    ingandbathing.Theseculturalbeliefs,whichareoften
    moresignicantforwomen,needtobekeptinmind
    whenwatersourcesarebeingexploitedfordiferent
    purposes.Ifwomenneedtotravellongdistancesto
    fetchsafeandcleanwater,thenthetimeandenergy
    costsoffetchingwaterarelikelytogoverntheirper-
    ceptionsofhygieneindiseaseprevention,resultingin
    lowerhygienelevelsinthehome.
    Whilescarcityafectsthelivesofallpeopleinthecom-
    munity,theseefectsmanifestthemselvesdiferently
    formenandwomenofdiferentagesandsocio-eco-
    nomicstatus.Scarcityaggravatesthewaterpovertyof
    womenandofyounggirlswhoareexpectedtohelp
    theirmotherstocollectwater,oftenmissingschool
    whenthewatershortageisacute.Researchindicates
    thatgirlsundertheageof15aretwiceaslikelyto
    carrythisresponsibilitythanboysundertheageof15
    (WHO/UNICEF,2010)(Box35.1).Womenfromeco-
    nomicallywell-oforupperclassfamiliesexperience
    scarcitylessintenselythanwomenfrompoorandso-
    ciallydisadvantagedfamilies.
    35.2.2Genderdimensionsofwatergovernance
    Watergovernanceencompassesthepolitical,eco-
    nomicandsocialprocessesandinstitutionsbywhich
    government,civilsocietyandtheprivatesectorsmake
    decisionsabouthowbesttouse,developandmanage
    waterresources(UNDP,2004,p.10).Watergovern-
    anceismorethannational-levellegislations,regula-
    tionsandinstitutions,andreferstotheprocessesthat
    existtopromotestakeholderparticipationandmecha-
    nismsfordecision-making.
    Accessibilityandavailabilityofsafeandsufcientwa-
    teristhereforeoftendeterminedbygovernance,which
    inturnisafectedbysocialstructuresandgenderrela-
    tions.Thereisacloselinkbetweenwatergovernance,
    genderandpowerdividesinsociety.Whotakesdeci-
    sionsandatwhatlevels,andthetypesofdecisions
    takenaregreatlyinuencedbythecultureofsocial
    relations.Genderrelationsandsocialstructureswill
    determineatwhatlevelwomen,andwhichgroupof
    women,canparticipateindecision-makingandwhat
    thatmechanismwillbe.Tomakewatergovernance
    moreefective,existingformalandinformalmecha-
    nismsfordecision-making,includingpowerstructures
    withinthesocietywhicharegovernedbyclass,gender
    andethnicityneedtobechallenged.Whentradition-
    alrolesarechallenged,powerrelationsarelikelyto
    changethereforereducingthegendergapisaprocess
    thatisaccompaniedbywomensempowerment.
    1
    Debatesaroundgenderdimensionsofwatergovern-
    ancetendtodelegategenderconsiderationstothe
    realmofthegrassroots.Keepingthefocusofdiscus-
    siononwomensphysicalburdenoffetchingwaterfor
    householdpurposesispoliticallycomfortableanddoes
    notchallengethelargerandbroaderaccessandpower
    issuesthatincreasewomenswaterburdenintherst
    place.Itiseasiertobringthedrinkingwaterpipeline
    tothecommunitythantochallengethegenderdivide
    thatplacestheresponsibilityoffetchingwaterforthe
    householdonthewoman.Althoughitmaybetruethat
    genderconcernsbecomemorepronouncedcloserto
    thegrassroots,wherepeopleinteractdirectlywithwa-
    terandnaturalresources,itisimportanttounderstand
    thatnationalandinternationalpolicyafectsaccess
    andcontroloverlocalwaterresourcesaswell.
    Decisionsaboutwatersharing,allocationanddistri-
    butionbetweendiferentusesandacrossregionsare
    mostoftenmadeathigherlevelswhereeconomicand
    politicalconsiderationsplayamoreimportantrole
    thansocialconcerns.Thesedecisionsimpactwaterre-
    sourceslocallyavailabletocommunitiesthatarelikely
    toloseaccesstotheveryresourcesthatsustained
    theirlivelihoodsandfullledtheirneeds.Ruralwomen
    CHAPTER35 SPECIALREPORTS 746
    oftenrelyuponcommonwaterresources,suchas
    smallwaterbodies,pondsandstreamstomeettheir
    waterneeds,butinmanyregionsthesesourceshave
    eitherbeenerodedorhavedisappearedduetochang-
    esinlanduseorhavebeenappropriatedfordevelop-
    mentbythestateorindustry.
    Waterpoliciesbasedonbroad,generalizedperspec-
    tivesaremorelikelytomissoutlocalknowledge,and
    socialandgenderdimensionsandtheirimplications.
    Socialandgenderanalysisconductedatthelowest
    possibleleveltocapturethelocalcontext,suchasthe
    communitywatersource,thesub-basinlevel,ormicro-
    watershedlevelcanhelpinunderstandingtheprob-
    lemsandpotentialimpactofthepolicyondiferent
    groupsofwomen.Communitywatersources,wheth-
    ernaturalorman-madelakes,pondsandirrigation
    schemes,servemanypurposes,includingshing,agri-
    culture,kitchengardens,washingandbathing.Women
    usewaterformanydiferentpurposes,includingdo-
    mestic,agriculture,healthandsanitation,whereasmen
    aregenerallyconcernedonlywithwateruseforagri-
    cultureandlivestock.Recognizingthevariouspurpos-
    esforwhichtheselocalwaterresourcesareusedby
    diferentgroupsofmenandwomeninthecommunity
    wouldhelpsuccessfullyintegrategenderconsidera-
    tionsinwatermanagement.
    Thisanalysiscaninformbroadnational,regionaland
    internationalpolicies,notonlyrelatedtowaterman-
    agement,butalsotoothersectors,suchasagriculture,
    energyandindustry.AnevaluationoftheFoodand
    AgriculturalOrganizations(FAO)workandroleinwa-
    terfoundthatirrigationandagriculturepolicystate-
    mentswiththeclearestdescriptionoflocalfarmer
    typologiesandthechallengesfacedbythemsucceed-
    edbestindevelopingstrategiesresponsivetocircum-
    stancesinthecountry(FAO,2010a).Byidentifying
    diferentfarmergroups,thepolicieswereabletode-
    velopactionplansforaddressingtheconcernsofmen
    andwomenfarmersinZambia,MalawiandSwaziland
    andtoalesserdegreeinMozambique,Kenyaandthe
    UnitedRepublicofTanzania(FAO,2010a)(Box35.2).
    Climatechangeimpacts,increasingpopulationpres-
    suresonwaterresources,andcompetitionfromdifer-
    entusesarelikelytoincreasewomenswaterpoverty
    inthefuture.Womendependuponandusewaterto
    sustainthefoodsecurity,healthandeconomicstability
    oftheirfamiliesandcommunities.Toreducewomens
    waterpoverty,changeswouldneedtobemadeat
    manydiferentlevels.Thedecision-makingandpolicy
    processeswouldneedtobeopeneduptoincludecon-
    sultationwithoractiveparticipationoftheappropriate
    groupofwomeninthegivencontextandtosupport
    theirrighttowater.Recenttrendsingovernancein
    variousaspectsofwatermanagementwhichusemulti-
    stakeholderplatformsforincreasingparticipationand
    transparencycanprovideaspaceforwomentoex-
    presstheirviewsandopinions,andencourageagen-
    derperspectiveinpolicymakingandimplementation.
    Attheeldlevel,appropriategroupsofwomenneed
    tobeconsultedduringthedesignandimplementation
    ofwaterprojectstomaximizethebenetofthesepro-
    jects.Wivesofrichfarmers,forexample,arelesslikely
    tobeinterestedincommunityirrigationordrinking
    waterschemesthanpoorerwomen,butmaypartici-
    pateforpoliticalreasons.Thereforeitwouldbeneces-
    sarytoidentifyandinvolvewomenwhoseinterestsare
    directlyafectedbytheprojectorintervention;ifthisis
    notdonetheprojectcouldhaveanegativeimpacton
    thosewomenwhoneedtheinterventionthemost.
    Womenaregenerallynotrecognizedasdecision-mak-
    ersorascontributorstothehouseholdeconomy;in
    Source: FAO (2010a).
    BOX 35.2
    Gendermainstreamingthroughefectivepolicy
    formulation
    AnevaluationoftheFoodandAgriculturalOrganizations
    roleandworkinwaterin2010highlightedthatforef-
    fectivepolicydevelopment,itwasimportanttoclearly
    identifytherelevanttargetpopulationsforwhomthe
    policywasmeant.Ananalysisofirrigationandagricul-
    turepoliciesinsevencountriesfromagenderandsocial
    inclusionperspectivefoundthatpolicystatementswith
    theclearestdescriptionoflocalfarmertypologiesandthe
    challengesfacedbytheminthecontextofthecountrys
    foodsecurityandpovertygoalsgenerallysucceededbest
    indevelopingstrategiesresponsivetocircumstancesin
    thecountryandtookintoaccountandaddressedtheis-
    suesandconcernsofsmallholderfarmersandsocially
    disadvantagedgroups.Agricultureandirrigationpoli-
    ciesinZambia,MalawiandSwazilandidentiedgender
    disparitiesamongfarmersanddevelopedstrategiesto
    addressthem,whereasalthoughgenderdisparitieswere
    identiedinMozambique,KenyaandtheUnitedRepublic
    ofTanzania,thestrategiesforaddressingthesewerestill
    beingdeveloped.
    WWDR4 747 WATERANDGENDER
    manyaspectstheyarestillviewedasfamilylabourers
    orunpaidlabour,especiallyinagriculturalhouseholds.
    Ononehandtheseculturalconstraintsusuallyhinder
    womensparticipationinwatermanagementorganiza-
    tionsanddecision-making,andontheother,womens
    engagementindomestichouseholdchoresusually
    preventsthemfromactiveparticipationinlocalwater
    managementorganizations.
    However,gendersensitizationformenandwom-
    eninthecommunity,andcapacitydevelopmentfor
    womencouldmaketheirparticipationmoreefec-
    tive.Womensgroups,suchasself-helpgroups,could
    alsoprovideacollectivevoiceforparticipation.Other
    interventionscouldincludecreatinggreatergender
    awarenessamongwatermanagers,includinggender
    expertiseinwaterprojects,providingtechnicaltraining
    towomentoenablethemtoparticipateintechnical
    discussions,anddevelopinganddisseminatingtools
    forgendermainstreaminginwatermanagementand
    governance.
    35.2.3Agriculture,foodsecurityandgender
    dimensions
    AccordingtolatestestimatesbyFAO,925millionpeo-
    pleareundernourished,ofwhich62%liveinAsiaand
    thePacic,theworldsmostpopulousregion,followed
    bysub-SaharanAfrica,whichishometo26%ofthe
    worldsundernourishedpopulation.Theriseinglobal
    undernourishmentisacombinedresultofdeclining
    investmentsinagriculture,increasedproductioncosts
    andrisingfoodprices,inparticularthecontinuedin-
    creaseinpricesofstaplecerealsandoilcrops(FAO,
    2010b).
    Foodproductionwouldhavetoincreaseby70%to
    feedapopulationof9billionpeopleby2050.Ofthe
    1.5billionhectares(ha)ofcroplandworldwide,only
    277millionha(or18%)isirrigatedland;theremaining
    82%israinfedland.Recentresearchindicatesthatto
    meetthedemandforfood,waterproductivityneeds
    tobeimproved,notonlyinirrigated,butalsoinrain-
    fedareas(FAO,2010b).Thisisbecause,duetothe
    highinvestmentcostsandthegrowingcompetitionfor
    water,thescopeforfurtherexpansioninirrigationis
    limitedinmanycountries.
    Womenplayanimportantroleinirrigatedaswell
    asnon-irrigatedagriculture,andalargernumberof
    womenthanmenisengagedinrainfedagriculture,
    producingtwo-thirdsofthefoodinmostdeveloping
    countries(WorldBank,2006).Itisimportanttonote
    thatthevastmajorityoftheworldsfarmsaresmall;
    85%ofthemarelessthan2hectares,and97%less
    than10.InAfrica,80%offarmedlandiscultivatedby
    smallholderfarmers,themajorityofwhomarewomen
    (UN,2009,p.8).AccordingtotheWorld Development
    Report 2008(WorldBank,2007,p.7),wherewomen
    arethemajorityofsmallholderfarmers,failuretoreal-
    izetheirfullpotentialinagricultureisacontributing
    factortolowgrowthandfoodinsecurity.
    Womencompriseanaverageof43%oftheagricul-
    turallabourforceindevelopingcountries(FAO,2011).
    Eighty%ofthebasicfoodinsub-SaharanAfricaispro-
    ducedbywomen(FAO,2006).InAfrica,Europeand
    CentralAsia,andsomeEastAsiancountries,menand
    womenworkequallyinagriculturalself-employment
    (WorldBank,2007).InMozambique,Rwanda,Uganda,
    andEgypt,womenareevenmorelikelytopartici-
    pateinagriculturalself-employment,whereasinLatin
    AmericaandSouthAsia,womenreportedlyworkless
    inagriculturalself-employment.(WorldBank,2007,
    p.79).Inalltheseregions,aswellasinAfrica,women
    havebroadenedanddeepenedtheirinvolvementin
    agriculturalproductioninrecentdecades(WorldBank,
    2007).Inspiteofthis,agricultureandwaterpolicies
    continuetowronglyassumethatfarmersaremen,re-
    inforcingmanyoftheconstraintsfacedbywomenin
    agriculturalproduction.
    Genderinequalitiesexistallalongthefoodproduction
    chain,beginningwithasymmetriesinownershipof,ac-
    cessto,andcontroloflivelihoodassets,suchasland,
    water,energy,credit,knowledgeandlabour.Women
    ingeneralhavelessaccesstoproductiveresources
    thanmen.
    Acrosstheregions,lessthan5%toabout15%women
    ownagriculturalland(FAO,2011).Innearlyallregions
    oftheworld,waterrightsandaccesstowateraretied
    tolandownership.Landownershipisalsoassociated
    withrecognitionasfarmers.Whenwomenlackthis
    recognitiontheycannotaccessotherservicesimpor-
    tantforfoodproduction,suchasextensionservices,
    creditandsubsidies,andaredeniedparticipationin
    decision-makingprocesses.Asmembershiptowa-
    terusersassociations(WUAs)informalandinformal
    irrigationschemesisrestrictedtolandowners,most
    womendonothaveaccesstoirrigation.
    CHAPTER35 SPECIALREPORTS 748
    Inthedevelopingworld,mentendtofocusonmarket-
    orientedorcashcropproduction,whereaswomen
    workwithsubsistenceagriculture,minorcropsand
    vegetablegardens,andoftengrowawiderdiversity
    ofcrops(WorldBanketal.,2009).Consequently,the
    useandmanagementofirrigationwaterislikelyto
    bediferentformenandwomenfarmers(WorldBank
    etal.,2009).Forexample,ingender-basedfarming
    systemsinsub-SaharanAfrica,wheremenandwomen
    oftencultivateseparateelds(VanKoppen,2002),
    thisrealityhasoftenbeenignoredinirrigationprojects.
    Asaresult,whilemencouldirrigatetheircashcrops,
    womendidnothaveaccesstoirrigationsystemsfor
    vegetablegardensandsubsistencecrops.
    Thelackofrecognitionofthediferentneedsofmen
    andwomenhasoftenresultedinthepartialortotal
    failureofirrigationschemes.Askeydecisionsinsite
    selection,beneciaries,land(re)allocationandwater
    rightsaremadeduringtheplanningphaseofwater-
    relatedinvestmentprojects,thelackofrecognitionof
    womensirrigationneedsattheplanningstageitself
    formsthebasisofgenderinclusionorexclusioninthe
    projects(VanKoppen,2002).Asmoremenout-mi-
    grate,leavingwomeninchargeofmanagingthefarms,
    itbecomesevenmoreimportanttoinvolvewomenin
    managingirrigation.Itisalsoimportanttoacknowl-
    edgeandplanforthefactthatwomenuseirrigation
    waterforproductiveanddomesticpurposes.Multiple
    usesystemsthereforeprovidebetteropportunitiesfor
    womentoparticipateinirrigationmanagementand
    decision-making,therebyimprovingthesustainability
    ofthesystems(Box35.3).
    Technicalinterventionsforimprovingrainfedagricul-
    ture,suchasrainwaterharvesting,whicharealsogood
    climatechangeadaptationmeasures,accesstosmall-
    scaleirrigationtechnologies,anddevelopingtheca-
    pacityofwomenfarmersforconservingwaterandsoil
    moisture,wouldprovideanopportunityforwomen
    toplayanimportantroleinincreasingfoodproduc-
    tion,securinglivelihoodsandimprovingfoodsecurity.
    Byimprovingtheagriculturalyieldsofwomenfarm-
    ers,thenumberofundernourishedpeoplecouldbe
    reducedbyasmuchas100150million(FAO,2011).
    Improvingwomensagriculturalproductivitywould
    notonlymakemorefoodavailabletotheirfamilies,
    butalsoprovidemuch-neededcashincomeforsecur-
    ingthehealth,educationandfoodsecurityoftheir
    households.Foodandnutritionsecurityvarieswithin
    thehouseholdasfamilymembershavediferentialac-
    cesstofood.Inmanycultureswomenandgirlseatlast
    andthereforeinpoorerhouseholdswomenmaybe
    deprivedofadequatefoodandnutrition.Improvedin-
    comesandeconomicempowermentmayhelpwomen
    improvetheirownfoodandnutritionsecurity,aswell
    asthatoftheirchildren.
    35.2.4Genderdimensionsofbiofuelproduction
    Aswaterrightsarecloselylinkedtolandrights,andboth
    landandwaterarerequiredforcropproduction,any
    debateontheproductionofbio-fuelsforenergywould
    needtoaddresstheimpactsofdivertinglandandwater
    resourcesfromfoodproductiontotheproductionofbio-
    fuel,andthegenderdimensionsoffoodsecurity.
    Source: IFAD (2005).
    BOX 35.3
    Makingparticipatoryirrigationdevelopment
    benecialforwomenintheUnitedRepublicof
    Tanzania
    InanInternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment
    (IFAD)-supportedParticipatoryIrrigationDevelopment
    Programme(19972007)intheUnitedRepublicof
    Tanzania,farmersareencouragedtotakeresponsibility
    forirrigationdevelopmentsothatschemesreecttheir
    needsandnotthoseofplanners.
    Watersupplyschemesarebuiltformultipleusesbesides
    irrigation,toaddresswomensconcernsaboutwateravail-
    abilityfordomesticuses.Thus,shallowtubewellschemes
    havebeenconstructedtoprovidewaterforhorticultural
    crops,riceseedlingnurseriesanddomesticuse.Thisis
    particularlyaimedatreducingworkloadsbyreducingthe
    timewomenspendinfetchingwaterfordomesticuse.
    Womenareactivelyinvolvedinthewaterusersasso-
    ciations(WUAs),sometimesevenmorethanthemale
    members.TheresponsibilitiesoftheWUAcommitteesare
    sharedequallybymaleandfemalemembers.Although
    mostplotownersaremen,theproportionofwomenwith
    plotsandmembershipinWUAsisover30%.Women
    manageshallowwellsandhaveaccesstoirrigationfor
    growingvegetablesforbothfoodandincome.Asaresult
    ofgendertrainingandsensitization,womenhavealso
    takenupleadershiprolesinWUAsanddistrictcouncils,
    andparticipateinsavingsgroupsandcreditassociations.
    WWDR4 749 WATERANDGENDER
    FAO estimates that, in sub-Saharan Africa and the
    Caribbean, women produce as much as 80% of ba-
    sic foods, while in South and Southeast Asia, 60%
    of cultivation work and other food production is
    done by women. (FAO, 2006, p. 2). Furthermore,
    although FAO projections to 2010 indicate a contin-
    ued reduction in the overall female participation in
    agriculture globally, the percentage of economically
    active women working in agriculture in LDCs (least
    developed countries) is projected to remain above
    70%. (FAO, 2006, p. 5).
    Thepotentialdepletion(ordegradation)ofnatural
    resourcesassociatedwithbiofuelproduction,such
    asincreasedsoilandwaterpollution,soilerosionand
    waterrunof,withsubsequentlossofbiodiversityand
    reducedproductionoffoodcropsisthereforemore
    likelytoimpactwomensagriculturalandruralliveli-
    hoods.Inadditiontodecreasingfoodsecurity,compe-
    titionforlandandwaterresourcesbetweenfoodand
    energycropproductioncoulddisplacefarmingcom-
    munitiesfromtraditionalfarmlandsandreduceaccess
    tocommonlandswhichprovidedfuelandfodderfor
    ruralhouseholdsandtheiranimals.Thisinturnwould
    meanthatwomenwouldhavetospendlongerhours
    inaccessingfodderandrewoodasitistraditionally
    theirresponsibilitytodoso.Further,thereplacement
    oflocalcropswithenergycropplantationscouldalso
    threatentheextensiveknowledgeandthetraditional
    setofskillsofsmallholderfarmersinthemanagement
    oflocalcrops.Itwouldalsothreatentheknowledge
    relatedtotheselectionandstorageofseedsandcrops,
    allactivitiestraditionallyperformedmainlybywomen.
    (FAO,1999).
    Agrowingconcernaboutthepossibleimpactsofbio-
    fuelproductionhasinitiatedefortstounderstandhow
    biofuelproductioncanbepro-poor,andpro-women,
    helpingtonotonlysafeguardwomenslivelihoodsbut
    alsotoalleviatetheirworkburden.Researchbythe
    InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(Arndt
    etal.,2009)showsthatpositivetechnologicalspillo-
    verefectsfromthecultivationofbiofuel,particularly
    whenkeystaplecropsarecultivated,couldbenet
    subsistence,smallholderagriculture.Toaddresspo-
    tentialconictbetweenthegoalsofpovertyreduction
    andagro-business,
    2
    industrytypeofbiofuelproduc-
    tion,somecountrieshavebeguntoadoptstrategies
    thatintegratesubsistencecropsystemswithenergy
    cropproductiontoavoidcompletedominationby
    mono-cropplantationsystemsandallowforamore
    variedagriculturallandscapeandtheabilitytocapture
    pro-poorbenets.(Arndtetal.,2009).
    AreviewoflocalbiofuelprojectsinAfricaandAsia
    conductedbytheInternationalNetworkonGender
    andSustainableEnergy(ENERGIA)
    3
    foundthatvillage
    levelprojectshavegreatpotentialintermsofsustain-
    ablefuelproductionandincreasedaccesstoenergy
    inruralareasofdevelopingcountriesifparticipatory
    processesareemployedinthedevelopmentandim-
    plementationoftheprojects.Onasmallscale,locally
    producedplantoilsandbiodieselcansuccessfullybe
    Note: This project has been undertaken by a womens group in
    Gbimsi, a town about 2 km from Walewale in the West Mamprusi
    District of the northern region of Ghana, with support from the
    United Nations Development Fund for Women (UNIFEM), the
    GRATIS Foundation in Ghana, and the United Nations Development
    Programme Global Environment Facility (UNDP-GEF) Small
    Grants Programme.
    Source: Karlsson and Banda (2009, p. 15).
    BOX 35.4
    ExtractionanduseofJatrophaoilbyavillage
    womensgrouptopowersheabutterprocessing
    equipmentinGhana
    AwomensgroupinGbimsi,Ghanaisproducingbiofuel
    torunsheabutterprocessingequipmentandtouseit
    asakerosenesubstituteinlanterns.Thewomengrow
    Jatrophaplants,extractoilfromtheseedsandmixitwith
    diesel(70%plantoil/30%diesel)toproducefuel.The
    projectservesasamodelforvillagelevelbiofuelpro-
    ductionlinkedtotheempowermentofwomen,andef-
    fortsarebeingmadetonancesimilarprojectsinother
    villages.
    Forthemembersofthewomensgroup,muchofthe
    drudgeryinvolvedinthesheabutterprocessinghasbeen
    eliminated,resultinginincreasedproductionandim-
    provedaccesstocreditfromthelocalbank.Thepro-
    cessingtimeisreducedbysixhours,makingmoretime
    availableforhouseholdinteraction;morerelaxationfor
    improvedhealth,entertainment,communitypeaceand
    harmony;andincreasedattentiontootherincomegener-
    atingactivities.
    Regulargroupinteractionandparticipationinmeetings
    andworkshopshasbroadenedtheoutlookofthewomen.
    Overall,theyhavemoreabilitytomaketheirown
    choices,andhavegainedintermsofimprovedself-es-
    teem,betternegotiatingskills,moretimeforvolunteering,
    andgreateropportunitiesforcontributingtothehouse-
    holdbudget.
    CHAPTER35 SPECIALREPORTS 750
    unitthanthoseinhigh-incomeareasoftheirowncit-
    iesandmorethanconsumerspayinLondonorNew
    York;andthepoorest20%ofhouseholdsinElSalvador,
    JamaicaandNicaraguaspendonaveragemorethan
    10%oftheirhouseholdincomeonwater.IntheUnited
    Kingdoma3%thresholdisseenasanindicatorof
    hardship.(UNDP,2006,p.7).
    Beingabletoaccesspipedwatersupplydepends
    uponthehouseholdsnancialabilitytoconnectto
    thepipeline.Connectionfeesaregenerallyhighand
    canexceed$100eveninthepoorestcountries(UNDP,
    2006),makingitdifcultforpoorpeopletohaveac-
    cesstopipedwatersupply.Forexample,inManila
    thecostofconnectingtotheutilityrepresentsabout
    threemonthsincomeforthepoorest20%ofhouse-
    holds,andaboutsixmonthsincomeforthepoorest
    inurbanKenya.(UNDP,2006,p.10).Inaddition,utili-
    tiesinmanycitiesrefusetoconnecthouseholdsthat
    lackformalpropertytitles,whichagainareoftenthe
    poorest.(UNDP,2006).Locationisanotherbarrierto
    connectingtothewaterutility.Slumsorinformalset-
    tlementsareoftensituatedindifcult-to-connectloca-
    tionsintermsofdistanceandtopography(Pangare
    andPangare,2008).
    Aswaterpassesthroughintermediariesandeachadds
    transportandmarketingcosts,pricesincrease.The
    risingblocktarifsystembeingimplementedbymost
    utilitiesaimstocombineequitywithefciencybyrais-
    ingthepricewiththevolumeofwaterused.However,
    distancefromutilitiestendstoinateprices,andin
    practice,thepooresthouseholdsareoftenlockedinto
    thehighertarifbandsastheintermediariesserving
    poorhouseholdsarebuyingwaterinbulkatthehigh-
    estrate.InDakar,poorhouseholdsusingstandpipes
    paymorethanthreetimesthepricepaidbyhouse-
    holdsconnectedtotheutility(UNDP,2006).
    Efortstoimproveurbanwatersupplythroughpri-
    vatesectorparticipationhavenotbeenassuccessful
    asexpectedinimprovingaccessforpoorhouseholds
    andwomen.TheCochabambaexperience(inBolivia)
    showedthatsocialdiferences,inequitiesandvulner-
    abilitiescanincreaseiftheapproachisnotpro-poor
    (Ledo,2004).Howeverthesuccessofthereform
    processundertakeninCambodiabythePhnomPenh
    WaterSupplyAuthority(PPWSA)showedthatthe
    poorcangainaccesstopipedwatersupplyiftheef-
    ciencyandefectivenessofpublicwaterutilitiesis
    improved(Box35.5).Notonlydidthewatersupplyin
    usedtopowerdieselenginesandgeneratorsinrural
    villagesforagriculturalprocessing,enterprises,and
    incomegeneration(Box35.4),andcontributetore-
    ducingtheworkburdenofwomen.Womencouldthen
    engageinnewincome-generatingactivitiesthatcould
    enablethemtosendtheirchildrentoschool,feed
    theirfamiliesnutritiousfood,providebetterhealth
    careandlivingconditions,andhavemorepowerto
    makedecisionswithintheirhouseholdsandcommuni-
    ties(KarlssonandBanda,2009,pp.45).
    Itwasalsofoundthatunlikethethreatsrelatedtobio-
    fuelproductionwhichcomefromtheoperationofbig
    plantationsrunonanagro-businessmodel,invillage-
    basedmodels,itispossibletoprotecttheinterestsof
    smalllandownersandengagethemasproducersand
    processorsofbiofuelaspartofalargervalueproduc-
    tionandsupplychainwithoutcompromisingfoodand
    watersecurity.Byutilizinglandandwaterresources
    efectively,productionanduseofbiofuellocallycan
    improvethelivelihoodsofwomen.
    35.2.5Genderdimensionsofurbanwatersecurity
    Itisexpectedthatby2020,thedevelopingcountries
    ofAfrica,AsiaandLatinAmericawillhavethelargest
    numberofpeoplelivinginurbanareas.Seventy-ve%
    (FAO,2008)ofallurbandwellersworldwidewillbein
    theseregions,and85%ofthepoorinLatinAmerica,
    andabout4045%ofthepoorinAfricaandAsia
    willbeconcentratedintownsandcities(FAO,2008).
    Providingsafeandsecurewaterforthisfastgrow-
    ingurbanpopulationisoneofthegreatestchallenges
    forthepresentandthefuture.Anevenbiggerchal-
    lengeistoprovidesafe,secureandafordablewater
    tothepoorcommunitiesthatlivewithintheseurban
    conglomerates.
    Anestimated40%ofpeoplelivinginAsiancitieswith
    apopulationofover1million,mostofwhomarepoor,
    donothaveaccesstopipedwater(Dasetal.,2010).
    Accesstopipedwaterwithinthehouseholdaverages
    about85%forthewealthiest20%ofthepopulation,
    comparedwith25%forthepoorest20%(UNDP,2006).
    Inmostdevelopingcountries,thepoorestpeoplenot
    onlyhaveaccesstolesswater,andtolesscleanwater,
    buttheyalsopaysomeoftheworldshighestprices.
    Poorpeoplelivinginslumsoftenpay510timesmore
    perlitreofwaterthanwealthypeoplelivinginthe
    samecity(UNDP,2006).Forexample,peoplelivingin
    theslumsofJakarta,Indonesia;Manila,thePhilippines;
    andNairobi,Kenya,pay510timesmoreforwaterper
    WWDR4 751 WATERANDGENDER
    PhnomPenhimproveasaresultofthesereforms,but
    costrecoverymeasureswerealsosuccessfulbecause
    stratiedsubsidiesweremadeavailabletothepoor
    (Dasetal.,2010).
    Whenpoorhouseholdsorcommunitieslivinginslums
    orinformalsettlementsdonothaveaccesstopiped
    waternetworks,theytendtomeettheirwaterneeds
    throughacombinationofdiferentsourcesandmeans.
    They(mostlikelywomenandgirls)eithercollectwater
    freelyfrompublicorprivateprotectedorunprotected
    sourcesand/orpurchasewaterfromformalorinfor-
    malvendors,dependinguponthequantityandquality
    ofwateravailable(PangareandPangare,2008).Asa
    result,thepoorest,especiallythewomen,oftenpay
    themostforwater,particularlytakingintoaccountthe
    smallerquantitiesofwatertheyareabletopurchase
    (suchaspayingforeachbucketofwater)andthead-
    ditionalindirectcostofpoorqualitywaterintermsof
    waterbornediseasesandhealthcare.
    ArecentstudyonurbanwatervendinginUganda
    foundthatwatervendorsbyre-sellingpipedwaterto
    thepoorwhoareunabletoinvestinobtainingapri-
    vateoryardtapconnectionfortheirhouseholds,are
    actuallyextendingtheNationalWaterandSewerage
    Corporation(NWSC)coveragetotheurbanpoor
    (PangareandPangare,2008).Amajorityofthewa-
    tervendorsinUgandahademployedyoungchildren
    orwomentomanagethetapsorwater-sellingpoints,
    becausetheycouldbeemployedatverylowsalaries
    (PangareandPangare,2008).
    35.2.6Genderconcernsinhealthandsanitation
    Accesstowaterforlifeisabasichumanneedanda
    fundamentalhumanright.Yet884millionpeopleare
    deniedtherighttocleanwaterand2.6billionpeople
    lackaccesstoadequatesanitation(WHOandUNICEF,
    2010).Everyday,almost5,000children,(about
    1.8millionchildrenperyear),dieasaresultofdiarrhoea
    andotherdiseasescausedbyuncleanwaterandlack
    ofsanitation,makingitthesecondlargestcauseof
    childmortality.Easieraccesstocleanwaterandsani-
    tationimproveshygienebehaviourandcanreducethe
    riskofachilddyingbyasmuchas50%(UNDP,2006).
    Everydaymillionsofwomenandyounggirlscollect
    waterfortheirfamilies,aritualthatreinforcesgen-
    derinequalitiesinemploymentandeducation.(UNDP,
    2006).Womenoftenspenduptosixhourseveryday
    fetchingwater,thetimecalculatedincludeswalkingto
    thesourceofwater,waitinginqueuesandthencarry-
    ingbacktheheavycontainerslledwithwater(UNDP,
    2006).Inaddition,carryingwaterinlargecontainers
    ontheirheadsismorelikelytohaveseverehealthim-
    plicationsforwomenandgirls,suchasbackacheand
    headaches,andotherproblems,suchasanxiety,stress,
    light-headedness,vomitingandvertigoafterwalking
    manyhourswithahugegallonofwater(UN-HABITAT/
    GWA,2006).
    Withincreasingcontaminationofsurfacewaterand
    groundwatersources,women,asprimarycollectors
    ofwater,arethersttobeexposedtowaterborne
    diseases.Thisnotonlyafectstheirownhealthandre-
    productivehealthbutalsooftenresultsinbirthdefects
    andhighinfantmortality.Alsothestigmaattachedto
    waterbornediseases,suchasurinaryschistosomiasis
    inwomenafectstheirownhealth-seekingbehaviour
    andaccesstohealthcare.
    Bothmenandwomensuferindignityandillhealth
    frominadequatesanitation.However,men,women
    andchildrenhavediferentsanitationneeds,andthese
    needtobekeptinmindwhendesigningsanitation
    facilities.Itisalsoimportanttofacilitateprivacyand
    Source: Das et al. (2010).
    BOX 35.5
    Improvingaccessforthepoor:PhnomPenhWater
    SupplyAuthority,PhnomPenh,Cambodia
    SoyNajy,whosehouseholdconsistsofsevenmem-
    bers,receivedherPhnomPenhWaterSupplyAuthority
    (PPWSA)connectionin2005.Sheusedittopurchase
    threedrums(20Lperdrum)ofwaterfromvendorsevery
    dayatapriceof2000Rielperdrum,amountingtoRiel
    150,000orUS$37.5permonth.Shehasasewingand
    tailoringshop,andrequiresmorewaterthanisnormally
    usedfordomesticconsumption.In2005,residentsfrom
    thesquattercolonyinwhichshelivesurgedPPWSAto
    extendtheirnetworktotheirlocality.NowthatSoyNajy
    hasaccesstothewatersuppliedbythepublicutility,she
    pays15,000RielorUS$4permonthforwaterthatis,
    one-tenthofwhatshepaidbefore.Ithashelpedherre-
    duceexpensestoagreatextent.
    PriortothePPWSAconnection,thelocalityreceivedwa-
    teronlyatnightbecausetheslumwaslocatedatahigher
    elevation.Nowresidentshave24-hourwatersupplyand
    atamuchlowercost.
    CHAPTER35 SPECIALREPORTS 752
    securityincommonfacilitiesforyoungchildrenand
    women.
    Lackofwaterandsanitationperpetuatesgenderin-
    equalityanddisempowerswomenindiferentways.
    Particularlyinwater-scarceregions,millionsofgirls
    areunabletoattendschoolbecausetheymustfetch
    waterfortheirhouseholds.Inaddition,lackofsanita-
    tionfacilitiesinschoolskeepsyounggirlsoutofschool,
    especiallyduringpuberty,limitingtheiropportunityfor
    continuingtheireducation,consequentlylimitingtheir
    lifeandlivelihoodchoices.Thetimespentfetching
    andcollectingwaterandcaringforchildrenandfam-
    ilymembersmadeillbywaterbornediseasesandtheir
    ownassociatedhealthproblemsreduceswomensop-
    portunitiestoengageinproductivework.
    Ingeneral,nothavingaccesstocleanwaterandad-
    equatesanitationisamajorcauseofpovertyand
    malnutrition;theassociatedillhealthtrapsvulnerable
    householdsincyclesofpoverty,underminingthepro-
    ductivityofthepoorpeopleandreinforcingeconomic
    inequalities.
    35.2.7Genderdimensionsofwater-relateddisasters
    Thousandsofwomenandmendieworldwideevery
    yearasaresultofwater-relateddisasters.Itispredict-
    edthatclimatechangewillfurtherincreasethenum-
    berofhumandeathsfromheatwaves,oods,storms
    anddroughts,astheseextremeweathereventswill
    increaseinfrequencyandintensity.Althoughthereis
    notenoughsex-disaggregateddataavailableonhow
    thesedisastersafectmenandwomen,therearein-
    dicationsthatmortalitydiferencesbysexmayvary
    fromonecountrytoanotherandbytypeofhazard.
    Recentinformationontheimpactofthetsunamiin
    December2004suggeststhatwomenandgirlsmay
    bemorevulnerabletosomenaturaldisastersasare-
    sultoflessaccesstoinformationandlifeskillsdevel-
    opment,andculturallyconstrainedmobilityofwomen
    outsideoftheirhomes.Manymorewomenthanmen
    diedinseverallocationshitbythetsunami,andalarge
    numberofthemwerebetween1929yearsofage,
    suggestingacombinationofincreasedvulnerability
    ofwomenstayinghomewithchildrenatthetimeof
    thesealevelriseandthemorefortunatesituationof
    someoftheyoungmenwhowerefarawayfromthe
    coastline,shingatseaoroutintheagriculturalelds
    (OxfamInternational,2005).
    Strategiesandresponsesdevelopedtomitigatethe
    impactsofwater-relateddisastersareusuallyde-
    signedfortheentirepopulationofthevulnerablearea,
    anduseexistingsocialstructuresfordecision-making
    andcommunicatinginformation.Responseswouldbe
    moreefectiveifthediferentneeds,constraintsand
    strengthsofdiferentgroupsofmenandwomenin
    thelocalcommunitywereidentiedandthisinforma-
    tionwasusedwhilepreparingmitigationandresponse
    strategiesandplans.
    AsthePanAmericanHealthOrganization(PAHO)
    pointsoutonthebasisofitsexperience,naturaldis-
    astersoftenoferwomentheopportunitytochallenge
    theirgenderedstatusinsociety.Notonlydowomen
    takeuptraditionallymaletasksoutsidetheirdomestic
    spheres,butoftendosoagainstthewishesofthemen
    inthecommunity,thuschallengingtheirperceived
    rolesinsociety.Womenaremostefectiveatmobiliz-
    ingthecommunitytorespondtodisasters,andasa
    resultoftheirresponseeforts,womenaredevelop-
    ingnewskills,suchasnaturalresourceandagricultural
    management,whichinthepresenceofappropriate
    enablingframeworks,couldrepresentopportunitiesfor
    incomegeneration(PAHO,2001).
    35.3Thewayforward
    Overmanydecades,theUNhasmadesignicantpro-
    gressinadvancinggenderequality,includingthrough
    landmarkagreements,suchastheBeijingDeclaration
    andPlatformforAction,andtheConventiononthe
    EliminationofAllFormsofDiscriminationagainst
    Women(CEDAW),andsettingupofUNWomentoaccel-
    erateprogressinachievinggenderequalityandwomens
    empowerment.WaterandGenderislistedasoneof
    UN-WatersThematicPriorityAreasinits20102011Work
    Programmeandpromotinggenderequalityandthe
    empowermentofwomenworldwideisoneofUNESCOs
    twoglobalprioritiesfor20082013(UNESCO,2009).
    Thereisenoughevidencetoshowthatintegratinga
    gender-sensitiveapproachtodevelopmentcanhavea
    positiveimpactontheefectivenessandsustainability
    ofwaterinterventionsandontheconservationofwater
    resources.Involvingbothmenandwomeninthedesign
    andimplementationofinterventionsleadstoefective
    newsolutionstowaterproblems;helpsgovernments
    avoidpoorinvestmentsandexpensivemistakes;makes
    projectsmoresustainable;ensuresthatinfrastructure
    developmentyieldsthemaximumsocialandeconom-
    icreturns;andfurthersdevelopmentgoals,suchas
    WWDR4 753 WATERANDGENDER
    reducinghunger,childmortality,andimprovinggender
    equality(OxfamInternational,2005and2007).
    Althoughitistruethatmanysociallyconstructedbar-
    riersneedtobeovercometofacilitatetheinvolve-
    mentofbothmenandwomenindecision-makingand
    managementofwaterresources,itisalsotruethat
    traditionalgenderroleshaveoftenbeenchallenged
    successfullybydevelopingwomenscapacitiesto
    managewaterinterventionsandprovidingthemwith
    opportunitiestoplayleadershiprolesandimprove
    theireconomicconditions.However,thesesuccesses
    aremoreoftenlimitedtothelocalcontextasthelarger
    issues,suchasprovidingwaterrightstowomen,are
    governedbyexternalitieswhicharenotonlyoutside
    thepurviewoftheseinterventions,butinvolvetradi-
    tional,culturalandpoliticalrealitiesthataredifcultto
    changeintheshort-term,andrequirelong-termcom-
    mitmentfrompolicy-makers,governments,politicians
    andadvocacygroups.
    Itisclearthattomeetfuturechallengesinwaterinall
    itsusesitisnecessarytodecreasethegendergapin
    water.Opportunitiesforaddressingthesechallenges
    callforgreaterparticipationbywomenforwhichnew
    methodsofwatergovernancewouldberequired,ac-
    tionswouldneedtobetakentoimprovewomens
    accesstoproductiveresourcesandcapacitieswould
    needtobebuilttofacilitatethesechangesandmake
    themefective.Suggestedbelowareactionpointsin
    threeareas.
    35.3.1Mainstreaminggenderconsiderationsinwater
    governance
    Recognizewomenasimportantdecision-makersin
    watergovernance.
    Recognizethediversityofwomen,andsocialand
    genderconstructsinsociety.Identifythespecic
    groupsofwomenwhoformtherelevantstakeholder
    groupinagivencontextandenablethemtopar-
    ticipateindecision-making.Someofthesespecic
    groupsinclude,butarenotlimitedto,poorwomen,
    ruralwomen,womeninperi-urbanareas,women
    farmers,andwomenwhohavebeendeniedaccess
    toawatersourceduetosocialconstructs,such
    asclass,ethnicityandculturalconstraintsinthe
    community.
    Enablewomentobecomemembersofwaterman-
    agementinstitutions,suchaswateruserorganiza-
    tionsthroughbydetachingwaterrightsfromland
    rights,reducingmembershipfeesandbroadening
    themandateofirrigationschemestoacknowledge
    andincludemultiplewateruse.
    Enablewomentoparticipateinthedecision-making
    processbyorganizingmeetingsandforums,keep-
    inginmindtheconvenienceoftimeandspacefor
    womentoattend.
    Facilitatethedevelopmentofthecapacityofmen
    andwomentoparticipateinjointmeetingsatdifer-
    entlevelsandtolistentoeachothersviews.
    Facilitatethedevelopmentofthecapacityof
    womentoexpresstheirviewsinmulti-stakeholder
    meetings
    Establishaccountabilitymeasuresandindicatorsto
    ensurethattheparticipationofwomenisencour-
    agedandfacilitated.
    Establishgenderindicatorsandconductgenderau-
    ditstostrengthenwomensparticipationingovern-
    anceprocesses.Collectionandanalysisofgender
    disaggregateddatawouldneedtobemademanda-
    toryfordevelopingefectivegenderindicatorsand
    conductinggenderaudits.
    Ensurethatthebudgetsprovideforgender
    mainstreaming.
    35.3.2Improvingwomensaccesstowaterandother
    productiveresources
    Recognizewomenasindependentusersofwater.
    Enablewomentoaccesswaterrights,regardlessof
    landownership.
    Recognizewomenasfarmersandirrigators.
    Ensurewomenhaveaccesstoextensionservices,
    creditandotherresourcesforimprovinglivelihoods.
    Identifyconstraintsthatpreventdiferentgroups
    ofwomenfromaccessingwaterresources,suchas
    socialandgenderconstructs,andpowerrelationsin
    thecommunity,andfacilitatetheremovalofthese
    constraints.
    Providetechnicaltrainingtowomenonwaterman-
    agement,irrigation,rainwaterharvesting,other
    smallholderirrigationtechnologiesandrainfed
    agriculture.
    Improvewatersupplyservicestocovertheneeds
    ofthepoorersectionsofthepopulationbyiniti-
    atingreformsthatmakewaterafordabletothe
    poorfamiliesinurbanandperi-urbanareas,such
    asinstalmentschemesforconnectionchargesand
    subsidies.
    Introducenewtargetsforimprovinggendersensi-
    tivesanitation:putgenderequityinwaterandsani-
    tationatthecentreofnationalpovertyreduction
    strategies.
    CHAPTER35 SPECIALREPORTS 754
    35.3.3Enhancingcapacitiesofmenandwomento
    understandandaddressgenderdiferencesand
    concernsinwatermanagement
    Gendersensitizationfordiferentlevelsofgovern-
    ment,projectandcivilsocietystaf.
    Gendersensitizationformenandwomeninthe
    community.
    Improve,adaptanduseexistingtoolsforgender
    mainstreaminginwatermanagementandgovern-
    ance,andprovidetraininginhowthesecanbeused
    efectively.

    Notes
    1 Whilewomensaccesstoeducationandemploymenthas
    improvedinrecentdecades,thetransformativepotentialof
    thosechangeshasbeencurtailedbypersistinginequalities
    inthegenderdistributionofresources.Thereisanimplicit
    assumptionthataseconomicopportunitiesforwomenexpand,
    householdswilladjustthegenderdivisionofunpaidlabour
    inwaysthatallowwomentorespondtochangingmarket
    incentivesonanequalbasiswithmen.Experiencehasnot
    bornethisassumptionout.Womensincreasingparticipation
    inpaidworkhasnotbeenaccompaniedbyacommensurate
    increaseinmensshareofunpaidworkwithinthehome.The
    genderdivisionofunpaiddomesticworkhasdisplayeda
    remarkableresilienceandcontinuestoshapethetermson
    whichwomenareabletotakeuppaidwork.Itlimitsthe
    transformativepotentialofemploymentforthepositionof
    womenwithinthehomeandinthewidersociety(UNDESA,
    2009).
    2 Agro-businessreferstomoderneconomicactivitiesdevotedto
    theproduction,processinganddistributionoffoodandbre
    productsandby-products(asopposedtofamilyfarms).Inhighly
    industrializedcountries,manyactivitiesessentialtoagriculture
    arecarriedoutseparatelyfromthefarm.Manyofthesefarmsuse
    extensivemechanizationandcomputertechnologytoincrease
    production(Encyclopaedia Britannica,2011).
    3 TheInternationalNetworkonGenderandSustainableEnergy
    (ENERGIA)hasrecommendedthatenvironmentalandsocial
    impactassessmentsofproposedbiofuelprojectsorprograms
    shouldincludeanevaluationofgender-diferentiatedimpacts
    throughconsultativeprocessesdesignedtoensuresubstantial
    participationofwomenandthatgenderequityshouldbeone
    oftheprinciplesconsideredinthoseassessments.


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    AcknowledgementsCommentsonsuccessivedrafts:MichelaMiletto(WWAP),
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    (UNESCO-IHP)
    CHAPTER 36
    Groundwater
    Shutterstock/OPIS

    Knowledge on the worlds groundwater resources, their functions and their use is quickly
    increasing and views on groundwater and its interlinkages are changing accordingly.
    Groundwater is globally a resource in transition: during the twentieth century, groundwater
    exploitation started booming (the silent revolution), resulting in much higher benets
    from groundwater than ever before, but triggering unprecedented changes in the state of
    groundwater as well.
    The key issues to be addressed to ensure the sustainability of groundwater resources are
    groundwater storage depletion (declining water levels) and groundwater pollution.
    Climate change will afect groundwater, but groundwater is more resilient than surface water,
    due to its characteristic bufer capacity. Therefore, in areas where climate change will cause
    water resources to become scarcer, the relative role of groundwater may become more
    prominent.
    Groundwater governance is complex and needs to be tailored to local conditions. In
    transboundary aquifer systems, the international dimension adds complexity.
    36.1Groundwaterinawebof
    interdependencies
    Addressinggroundwaterinaseparatechapterof
    WWDR4underlinestheimportanceofgroundwater
    inrelationtocopingwithrisksanduncertaintiesina
    changingworld,butshouldnotsuggestthatground-
    watersystemscanbeunderstoodandproperlyma-
    nagedonthebasisofhydrogeologicalinformation
    only,norinisolationfromsurfacewater.Onthecon-
    trary,groundwaterisacomponentofthehydrologi-
    calcycleandinteractscloselywithothercomponents
    ofthiscycle,atvarioustemporalandspatialscales.It
    isalsoinvolvedinvariousothercycles,suchaschemi-
    calcycles(solutetransport)andbiochemicalcycles
    (biosphere),andisafectedbyclimatechangere-
    sultingfromchangesinthecarboncycle.Inaddition,
    groundwaterinteractionsandinterdependenciesare
    notlimitedtophysicalsystems,suchassurfacewaters,
    soils,ecosystems,oceans,lithosphereandatmosphere,
    butarerelatedaswelltosocio-economic,legal,insti-
    tutionalandpoliticalsystems.Hence,groundwateris
    entrenchedinawebofinterdependencies.Changes
    inthestateofgroundwatersystemsaretakingplace
    duetotheseinterdependencies,andcausalchainslink
    thesechangestothedriversofchange(rootcauses).
    Diferentcategoriesofdriversarebehindtheprocesses
    ofchangeingroundwatersystems.Demographicdrivers
    andsocio-economicdriversexplaintoalargeextentwa-
    terdemands,pollutionloadsandpeoplesbehaviourwith
    respecttogroundwater.Scienceandtechnologicalin-
    novationhaveputtheirfootmarksaswellontheuseand
    stateofmanygroundwatersystemsaroundtheworld
    (e.g.bysystematicaquiferexplorationandimproveddrill-
    ingandpumpingtechnologies).Policy,lawandnance
    formanimportantcategoryofdriversbehindplanned
    change,inthecontextofgroundwaterresourcesdevel-
    opmentandmanagement.Climatevariabilityandchange
    afectinparticularaquifersinaridandsemi-aridregions
    (changesingroundwaterrecharge,waterdemandsand
    availabilityofalternativesourcesoffreshwater)andin
    coastalzones(sealevelrise).Finally,naturalandanthro-
    pogenichazardsmaycausesuddenratherthangradual
    changesinthestateofgroundwatersystems.
    36.2Panoramaofchange
    36.2.1Increasingknowledgeoftheworlds
    groundwater
    Signicantadvancesintheknowledgeoftheworlds
    groundwaterhavebeenwitnessedinrecentyears.
    Whiletheyareobservedatallscalelevels,thefocusin
    thisWorld Water Development Reportisontheglobal
    andregionalscales.Importantachievementsarethe
    consolidatedversionoftheGroundwaterResources
    MapoftheWorld(WHYMAP,2008;Figure36.1);the
    outcomesofglobal-scalehydrologicalmodelling,
    suchasonworldwidegroundwaterrechargewith
    theWaterGAPGlobalHydrologicalModel(Dlland
    Fiedler,2008)andongroundwaterdepletionwith
    PCR-GLOBWB(Wadaetal.,2010);aglobalassess-
    mentofcurrentgroundwateruseforirrigation(Siebert
    etal.,2010)andacomprehensivemonographonthe
    geographyoftheworldsgroundwater(Margat,2008).
    Specialattentionfortransboundaryaquifershasresult-
    edinrapidlyincreasingdocumentationandtoolson
    transboundaryaquifers(Section36.4).
    ThetotalvolumeoffreshgroundwaterstoredonEarth
    isbelievedtobe810millionkm
    3
    (Margat,2008),
    whichismorethantwothousandtimesthecurrent
    annualwithdrawalofsurfacewaterandgroundwater
    combined.Thisisahugevolume,butwherearethese
    freshwaterbuferslocatedandwhatfractionoftheir
    stockisavailablefordepletion?Figure36.1answers
    therstquestionbyshowingthegeographicdistri-
    butionoftheworldsmajorgroundwaterbasins(blue
    mapunitscovering36%oftheareaoftheconti-
    nents).Thisiswherethemaingroundwaterbufers
    arelocated.Additionalones,butlesscontinuousand
    smaller,arepresentintheareaswithcomplexhydro-
    geologicalstructure(greenmapunits18%)andtoa
    lesserextentevenintheremaining46%oftheareaof
    thecontinents.Thegroundwaterbufersallowthecon-
    venientbridgingofperiodic,seasonalormulti-annual
    dryperiods,withouttheriskofsuddenunexpected
    watershortages.Inlargepartsoftheglobe,sustain-
    ablegroundwaterdevelopmentispossiblebytheal-
    ternationofstoragedepletionduringdryperiodsand
    storagerecoveryduringwetperiods.Thegroundwa-
    terreservoirsareratherinsensitiveforvariationsinthe
    lengthofthedryperiodsandthereforeresilienttothis
    aspectofclimatevariationandclimatechange.Inprin-
    cipleitispossibletoignorethesustainabilitycriterion
    andexploitalargepartofthestoredgroundwatervol-
    umes,butinpracticeitisunattractiveanddifcultto
    doso,becausedepletioncomesatacost,asexplained
    inSection36.3.
    RecentoutcomesoftheGravityRecoveryandClimate
    Experiment(GRACE)markamajorstepforwardinas-
    sessinggroundwaterstoragevariationsinsomeofthe
    worldsmajoraquifersystems(Famigliettietal.,2009;
    SPECIALREPORTS CHAPTER36 758
    WWDR4 759 GROUNDWATER
    Rodelletal.,2009;Tiwarietal.,2009;Muskettand
    Romanovsky,2009;Moiwoetal.,2009;Bonsoretal.,
    2010;Chenetal.,2009).Theresultsoftheexperiment
    suggestthatsatellitemappingoftheEarthsgravity
    eld(satellitegravimetry)isapromisinginnovative
    techniqueforhydrogeologicalinvestigationsinthe
    nearfuture
    1
    ,formonitoringlong-termtrends,season-
    alvariationsandvariationsduringdroughts.Global
    simulationmodelslinkingtheterrestrialandatmos-
    phericcomponentsofthehydrologicalcyclearelikely
    tobecomeanotherimportanttooltoenhancethe
    knowledgeofgroundwaterregimes,inparticularfor
    exploringhowtheymayrespondtoclimatechange
    (Dll,2009).
    36.2.2Thesilentrevolution
    Drivenbypopulationgrowth,technologicalandscien-
    ticprogress,economicdevelopmentandtheneedfor
    foodandincome,groundwaterabstractionacrossthe
    worldhasexplosivelyincreasedduringthetwentieth
    century.Byfarthelargestshareoftheadditionalab-
    stractedvolumeshasbeenallocatedtoirrigatedag-
    riculture.Theboomingroundwaterdevelopmentfor
    irrigationstartedinItaly,Mexico,SpainandtheUnited
    Statesduringtheearlypartofthetwentiethcentury
    (Shahetal.,2007).AsecondwavebeganinSouth
    Asia,theNorthChinaPlain,andpartsoftheMiddle
    EastandNorthAfricaduringthe1970s,andstillcon-
    tinues.Theauthorsperceivealikelythirdwaveofin-
    creasingabstractionsinmanyregionsofAfricaandin
    someSouthandSoutheastAsiancountriessuchasSri
    LankaandVietNam.Thisworldwideboominground-
    waterabstractionhasresultedlargelyfromnumerous
    individualdecisionsbyfarmers,withoutcentralized
    planningorcoordination,andhasbeennamedthesi-
    lentrevolution(LlamasandMartnez-Santos,2005).
    Basedonrecentestimatesatcountrylevel(IGRAC,
    2010;Margat;2008;Siebertetal.,2010,AQUASTAT,
    2011;EUROSTAT,2011),theworldsaggregated
    FIGURE 36.1
    Groundwaterresourcesoftheworld
    Source: BGR and UNESCO, from WHYMAP (2008).
    Tokyo
    Sydney
    Lima
    Cairo
    Seoul
    Delhi
    Dhaka
    Lagos
    Paris
    Osaka
    Manila
    Tehran
    Lahore
    Mumbai
    Bogota
    London
    Moscow
    Madras
    Beijing
    Bangkok
    Karachi
    Jakarta
    Chicago
    Tianjin
    New York
    Istanbul
    Calcutta
    Shanghai
    Santiago
    Kinshasa
    Shenyang
    Hyderabad
    Sao Paulo
    Hong Kong
    Bangalore
    Mexico City
    Los Angeles
    Buenos Aires
    Rio de Janeiro
    St. Petersburg
    0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 km
    180 0 30 60 90 120 150 30 60 90 120 150
    0 0
    30 30
    60 60
    30 30
    60 60
    Groundwater resources and recharge (mm/year)
    300
    in major groundwater basins
    in areas with complex
    hydrogeological structure
    in areas with local and shallow aquifers
    very high
    100 20 2 0
    high medium low very low
    !
    Surface water and geography
    major river
    large freshwater lake
    large saltwater lake
    continuous ice sheet
    selected city
    country boundary
    SPECIALREPORTS CHAPTER36 760
    groundwaterabstractionasat2010isestimatedto
    beapproximately1000km
    3
    peryear,ofwhichabout
    67%isusedforirrigation,22%fordomesticand11%
    forindustrialpurposes(IGRAC,2010)
    2
    .Thelionsshare
    ofthetotalquantity(two-thirds)isabstractedinAsia,
    withIndia,China,Pakistan,IranandBangladeshas
    majorconsumers(Tables36.1and36.2).Theglobal
    groundwaterabstractionratehasatleasttripledover
    thelast50yearsandisincreasingatanannualratebe-
    tween1and2%.Nevertheless,insomecountrieswhere
    intensivegroundwaterdevelopmentstartedearly,
    abstractionrateshavepeakedandnowarestableor
    evendecreasing(Shahetal.,2007),asisillustrated
    inFigure36.2.Althoughtheglobalestimatesarenot
    accurate,theysuggestthatthecurrentglobalabstrac-
    tionofgroundwaterrepresentsapproximately26%
    oftotalfreshwaterwithdrawalonEarth(Table36.2)
    andthatitsratecorrespondstosome8%ofthemean
    globallyaggregatedrateofgroundwaterrecharge.
    Groundwaterissupplyingalmosthalfofalldrink-
    ingwaterintheworld(WWAP,2009)and43%ofthe
    globalconsumptiveuseofwaterinirrigation
    3
    (Siebert
    etal.,2010).
    Thesilentrevolutionhascontributedtremendous-
    lytoeconomicdevelopmentandwelfareinmany
    countriesoftheworld,especiallyintheruralareas.
    Nevertheless,ithasalsointroducedunprecedented
    problemsthatareinsomeareasdifculttocontrol
    (Section36.3).
    36.2.3Changingviewsongroundwater
    Groundwaterhasbecomeaninterdisciplinarysubject,
    nolongertheexclusivedomainofhydrogeologistsand
    engineers,butalsoaddressedbyeconomists,sociolo-
    gists,ecologists,climatologists,lawyers,institutionalex-
    pertsandcommunicationspecialists.Analysingground-
    waterfromdiferentanglesputsitinawidercontext,
    resultinginchangingviewsonthisnaturalresource.
    Therearechangingviewsregardingthevalueand
    functionsofgroundwater.Measuringtheimportance
    ofgroundwaterbycomparingitsrechargerate,with-
    drawalorstoredvolumetothoseofsurfacewateris
    graduallybeingreplacedbymoreeconomicallyori-
    entedapproaches,focusedontheaddedvaluepro-
    ducedbygroundwater.Groundwateroftenproduces
    highereconomicreturnsperunitofwaterusedinir-
    rigationthansurfacewater(LlamasandGarrido,2007;
    Shah,2007),becauseitsstoredvolumereducesrisk.
    Awarenessisgrowingthatfunctionsandservicesofa
    TABLE 36.1
    Top10groundwaterabstractingcountries
    (asat2010)
    Country Abstraction (km
    3
    /year)
    1 India 251
    2 China 112
    3 USA 112
    4 Pakistan 64
    5 Iran 60
    6 Bangladesh 35
    7 Mexico 29
    8 Saudi Arabia 23
    9 Indonesia 14
    10 Italy 14
    Note: Around 72% of the global groundwater abstraction takes
    place in these ten countries only.
    FIGURE 36.2
    Groundwaterabstractiontrendsinselected
    countries(incubickilometresperyear)
    Source: Adapted from Margat (2008, g. 4.6, p. 107).
    300
    250
    200
    150
    100
    50
    0
    1950
    India
    Mexico SaudiArabia Russia France
    USA China Pakistan Iran
    1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
    km
    3
    peryear
    WWDR4 761 GROUNDWATER
    groundwatersystemgobeyondwaterwithdrawaland
    includeanumberofin situservicesaswell,suchas
    thesupportofecosystems,phreatophyticagriculture,
    springowandbaseow;thepreventionoflandsub-
    sidenceandseawaterintrusion;andthepotentialfor
    exploitinggeothermalenergyorstoringheat.
    Asecondcategoryofchangingviewsreferstotherole
    ofpeople.Notlongago,diagnosticanalysisandman-
    agementofgroundwaterresourceswasbasedalmost
    exclusivelyontheanalysisofthephysicalcomponents
    (groundwatersystemsandrelatedecosystems).There
    iswideconsensusnowthatsocio-economicaspects
    deserveampleattentionaswellandthatgroundwater
    resourcesmanagementislikelytobesuccessfulonlyif
    stakeholdersareinvolvedandifadequategroundwater
    institutions,legislationandrelatedregulatoryframe-
    worksexist.
    Further,thedebateonclimatechangehasmadeclear
    thathydrogeologistsandhydrologistshavetoaban-
    dontheirtraditionalimplicitassumptionofstochastic
    stationarityofnaturalhydrologicaluxes.Theassump-
    tionthatgroundwaterrechargeratesassessedinthe
    pastwouldprovideanunbiasedestimateforfuture
    conditionsisnolongerappropriate.
    36.2.4Conjunctivemanagement,IntegratedWater
    ResourcesManagementandbeyond
    Groundwaterisnolongerexploredandexploitedas
    anisolatedresource.Aftertheadvantagesofconjunc-
    tiveuseofgroundwaterandsurfacewaterwererec-
    ognized,alreadylongago(Todd,1959),thenotionof
    conjunctivemanagementhasbeenembraced.Under
    thisparadigmthewaterresourcesarenotonlyused
    butalsomanaged,wherebysurfacewaterandground-
    wateraremanagedjointlyascomponentsofasingle
    system.ItmayincludeManagedAquiferRecharge
    (MAR),theintentionalstorageofwaterinaquifersfor
    subsequentrecoveryorenvironmentalbenet,applied
    incountlesssmallandlargeschemesaroundtheworld
    (Dillon,2009).MARincludesgroundwaterlevelcontrol
    inatareasbymanipulatingsurfacewaterlevels,such
    aswidelypracticedinTheNetherlands.
    Anextstepisintegrationacrosswaterusesec-
    tors,asadvocatedbyIntegratedWaterResources
    Management(IWRM):thecoordinateddevelopment
    andmanagementofwater,landandrelatedresourc-
    es,aimingformaximumeconomicandsocialwelfare
    withoutcompromisingthesustainabilityofecosystems
    andtheenvironment(GWP,2011).Thiscross-sectoral
    TABLE 36.2
    Keyestimatesonglobalgroundwaterabstraction(2010)
    Continent Groundwater abstraction
    1
    Compared to total water
    abstraction
    Irrigation
    (km
    3
    /year)
    Domestic
    (km
    3
    /year)
    Industrial
    (km
    3
    /year)
    Total
    (km
    3
    /year)
    % Total water
    abstraction
    2

    (km
    3
    /year)
    Share of
    groundwater
    (%)
    North America 99 26 18 143 15 524 27
    Central America
    and the Caribbean
    5 7 2 14 1 149 9
    South America 12 8 6 26 3 182 14
    Europe (including
    Russian Federation)
    23 37 16 76 8 497 15
    Africa 27 15 2 44 4 196 23
    Asia 497 116 63 676 68 2 257 30
    Oceania 4 2 1 7 1 26 25
    World 666 212 108 986 100 3 831 26
    1
    Estimated on the basis of IGRAC (2010), AQUASTAT (2011), EUROSTAT (2011), Margat (2008) and Siebert et al. (2010).
    2
    Average of the 1995 and 2025 business as usual scenario estimates presented by Alcamo et al. (2003).
    CHAPTER36 SPECIALREPORTS 762
    approachtowaterhasreplacedinmanycountriesthe
    previoustraditional,fragmentedsectoralapproaches
    thatignoredtheinterconnectionbetweenthediferent
    waterusesandservices.Therearetendenciestowards
    ahigherlevelofintegrationofarea-specicstrategic
    planning,insearchofbettercoherencebetweenpolicy
    domains,suchaswaterresourcesmanagement,land
    useplanning,natureconservation,environmentalman-
    agementandeconomicdevelopment.
    36.2.5Increasinginternationalfocusongroundwater
    Groundwater,alocalnaturalresourceproducing
    mainlylocalbenets,isprogressivelysubjecttoinitia-
    tivesattheinternationallevel.Initiativessuchasthe
    World-wideHydrogeologicalMappingandAssessment
    Programme(WHYMAP),InternationalGroundwater
    ResourcesAssessmentCentre(IGRAC),Groundwater
    ManagementAdvisoryTeam(GWMATE),International
    WatersLearningExchangeandResourceNetwork
    (IW:LEARN),InternationallySharedAquifersResources
    ManagementProgramme(ISARM)andglobalhydro-
    logicalmodellingarebasedontheideathatexchang-
    ing,sharing,compilingandanalysingarea-specic
    informationongroundwatercontributetodissemi-
    nationofknowledgeandproduceaddedvalueby
    providingviewsatahigherlevelofspatialaggrega-
    tion.Severalinternationalinitiativesaretriggeringor
    guidingactionintheeldofgroundwaterassessment,
    monitoringormanagement.Examplesnotspecicfor
    groundwateraretheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals
    andtheEuropeanWaterFrameworkDirective(WFD).
    Recentgroundwater-specicinitiativesinthiscate-
    goryaretransboundaryaquiferprojectsintheGlobal
    EnvironmentFacility(GEF)InternationalWaters(IW)
    portfolio,thenewEuropeanGroundwaterDirective
    (daughterdirectiveoftheWFD),theDraftArticles
    ontheLawofTransboundaryAquifersandthees-
    tablishmentoftheAfricanGroundwaterCommission.
    Severalrecentinternationaldeclarations,including
    theAlicanteDeclaration(IGME,2006)andtheAfrican
    GroundwaterDeclarationdemonstrategrowingaware-
    nessontherelevanceofgroundwaterandthewilling-
    nesstoaddressit.
    36.3Keyissuesongroundwater
    36.3.1Declininggroundwaterlevelsandstorage
    depletion
    Thesilentrevolutioncausedanunprecedentedin-
    creaseingroundwaterwithdrawalacrosstheglobe.
    Ithasproducedenormoussocio-economicben-
    etsaroundtheworld,butnotwithoutmodifying
    drasticallythehydrogeologicalregimesofmanyaq-
    uifers,inparticularpoorlyrechargedaquifers.The
    stressplacedongroundwatersystemsbygroundwater
    abstractionbuildsupwhentheratioofabstractionto
    meanrechargeincreases.Figure36.3showsthegeo-
    graphicalvariationofthecorrespondinggroundwa-
    terdevelopmentstressindicator.Thehigheststress-
    esoccurinthemorearidpartsoftheworld.Asthe
    groundwaterdevelopmentstressindicatorisaver-
    agedoverentirecountries,itcannotrevealstressed
    aquifersystemsmuchsmallerinsize.Asaresultof
    intensivegroundwaterdevelopment,steadydeple-
    tionofgroundwaterstorage,accompaniedbycontinu-
    ouslydeclininggroundwaterlevels,hasspreadover
    signicantpartsofthearidandsemi-aridzones.This
    producesawiderangeofproblems(VanderGunand
    Lipponen,2010)andinmanyareasalackofcontrol
    threatenstoresultinacompletelossofthegroundwa-
    terresourceasanafordablesourceofirrigationand
    domesticwatersupply.Inthemoreseriouslyafected
    aquiferzones,multi-annualgroundwaterleveldeclines
    aretypicallyintherangeofonetoseveralmetresper
    year(Margat,2008).
    Prominentaquiferscharacterizedbyverysignicant
    long-termgroundwaterleveldeclinesarealmostall
    locatedintheworldsaridandsemi-aridzones.In
    NorthAmericatheyincludetheCalifornianCentral
    Valley(Famiglietti,2009)andtheHighPlainsaquifer
    (McGuire,2009;Sophocleus,2010)intheUSA,aswell
    asaquifersscatteredoverMexico,includingtheBasin
    ofMexicoaquifer(Carrera-HernndezandGaskin,
    2007).InEurope,theaquifersoftheUpperGuadiana
    basin,theSegurabasinandthevolcanicsofGran
    CanariaandTenerifecanbementioned,allbelonging
    toSpain(Custodio,2002;LlamasandCustodio,2003;
    Molineroetal.,2008).Variouszonesofthehuge
    non-renewableNorth-WesternSaharaAquiferSystem
    (Mamouetal.,2006;OSS,2008)andtheNubian
    SandstoneAquiferSysteminNorthAfrica(Bakhbakhi,
    2006)areafectedbysignicantgroundwaterlevel
    declines.OntheArabianPeninsula,thereareunprece-
    dentedtrendsofstronglydeclininggroundwaterlevels
    intheTertiaryaquifersystemoftheArabianPlatform
    (mainlyinSaudiArabia;Brown,2011)andintheYemen
    Highlandbasins(VanderGunetal.,1995).Moreeast-
    ward,theVaramin,Zarandandmanyothermountain
    basinsofIransuferfromsteadilydecliningground-
    waterlevels(Vali-Khodjeini,1995;Motaghetal.,2008)
    asdopartsoftheextensiveaquifersystemsofthe
    Indusbasin,especiallyintheIndianstatesofRajasthan,
    WWDR4 763 GROUNDWATER
    Gujarat,Punjab,HaryanaandDelhi(Rodelletal.,2009;
    CentreforWaterPolicy,2005).TheNorthChinaPlain
    aquiferhasbecomenotoriousforseveregroundwater
    leveldeclines(JiaandYou,2010;Kendyetal.,2004;
    Sakuraetal.,2003;Liuetal.,2001;Endersbee,2006).
    Finally,continuousgroundwateroutowthroughnu-
    merousartesianwellshasproducedgroundwaterlevel
    declinesinexcessof100minpartsoftheAustralian
    GreatArtesianBasin(Habermehl,2006).Therearenu-
    merousotheraquifersaroundtheworldwherelevels
    havedeclinedorarestilldeclining,withvariableim-
    pactsonsocietyandtheenvironment.
    New,usefulinformationonthemagnitudeofground-
    waterstoragedepletionhasbecomeavailableinrecent
    years.KonikowandKendy(2005)estimatethatabout
    700800km
    3
    ofgroundwaterhasbeendepletedfrom
    aquifersintheUSAduringthetwentiethcentury.Recent
    assessmentsbyGRACEofthemassivegroundwater
    storagedepletionobservedinCaliforniasCentralValley
    andinnorth-westernIndiahaveproducedgroundwa-
    terstoragedepletionestimatesforsomelargeground-
    watersystems(Rodelletal.,2009;Famigliettietal.,
    2009;Tiwarietal.,2009).Theseestimatesareshownin
    Table36.3,togetherwithestimateddepletionratesfor
    otherlargeaquifersystemsaroundtheworld.Amodel
    studybyWadaetal.(2010)providesaglobalpicture.
    Themodelestimatesthatbytheyear2000theworlds
    groundwaterwasbeingdepletedatarateof283km
    3

    peryear,correspondingwith39%oftheglobalabstrac-
    tionrateasestimatedbytheauthors
    4
    .Theglobalpat-
    ternofgroundwaterdepletionproducedbythismodel
    matchesexistingknowledgeonareasnotoriousfor
    largeandpersistentgroundwaterleveldeclines,suchas
    inwesternNorthAmerica,theMiddleEast,Southand
    CentralAsiaandNorthChina.
    Depletinggroundwaterstoragecomesatacost.This
    costisnotlimitedtoapermanentlyhigherunitcost
    ofpumpedgroundwater,butmayalsoincludenega-
    tiveimpactsonenvironmentalandotherin situfunc-
    tionsofthegroundwatersystem,waterqualitydegra-
    dationandeven,inthelongrun,physicalexhaustion
    oftheaquifer.Insomecases,however,theremaybe
    goodreasonsforplannedgroundwaterdepletion
    duringaniteperiodandforacceptingtheassoci-
    atednegativeimpacts.Thismaybesoincaseofsud-
    dendisastersorifthereisaneedtobuytimefora
    smoothtransitiontosustainablegroundwaterdevel-
    opmentafterdynamicequilibriumconditionshave
    beendisturbedbyexplodingpumpingintensitiesor
    byclimatechange.
    FIGURE 36.3
    Groundwaterdevelopmentstressindicatoratcountrylevel(basedongroundwaterabstractionestimatesfor2010)
    Source: Prepared by IGRAC for this chapter.
    Abstraction (2010) as a percentage
    of mean annual recharge
    0 - 2
    2 - 20
    20 - 50
    50 - 100
    >100
    no data
    2011
    CHAPTER36 SPECIALREPORTS 764
    long-termdepletionproblems.Increasingabstrac-
    tionratesshortentheperiodbetweentherecharge
    seasonandthemomentthatwellsrunseasonally
    dry.Awarenessofthisphenomenonmotivatespeople
    toconserve,evenmoresoifspringsandqanats
    5
    are
    linkedtothesystem.Althoughgroundwaterdepletion
    riskstendtobeinsignicantforgroundwatersystems
    inhumidclimates,controlofgroundwaterlevelsmay
    stillbeimportant,especiallytopreventundesireden-
    vironmentalimpacts,suchasseawaterintrusion,land
    subsidenceandwetlanddegradation.
    Fundamentaloptionsforcontrollingdecliningground-
    waterlevelsandstorageareaugmentingtheground-
    waterresourceandrestrictingitsdischarge.Resource
    augmentationmeasuresareofatechnicalnatureand
    includeMARtechniques(articialrecharge)andland
    usemanagement.Oncedecidedupon,theirimple-
    mentationisrelativelystraightforward.Diferenttypes
    ofmeasuresareavailableforrestrictingpumping
    fromaquifers(demandmanagement).Enforcement
    ofregulations(e.g.licensingwelldrillingandabstrac-
    tions)basedongroundwaterlegislationformstherst
    type.Alternatively,groundwaterabstractionisdiscour-
    agedselectivelybynancialdisincentives,restrict-
    ingenergysupplyorenhancingpeoplesawareness
    onsustainabilityproblems.Athirdtypeofmeasures
    forrestrictinggroundwateroutowisthereduction
    ofwaterlossesatthewellheadandintransport(asin
    theGreatArtesianBasin),orwhereitisused(e.g.by
    Therisksandproblemsresultingfromdecliningwater
    levelsvaryfromaquifertoaquifer,asdooptionsand
    currentpracticesforcontrol.ThesituationontheHigh
    Plainsistypicalfornumerousintensivelyexploited
    aquifersintheworld,largeandsmall.Ontheone
    handthereisagrowingawarenessoftheneedtostop
    depletingtheresource;ontheotherhand,reducing
    groundwaterabstractiontoasustainablelevelseems
    disastrousforthelocaleconomyandisnotreadily
    acceptedbymanyindividualstakeholderswhoriskto
    losepartoftheirincomeifgroundwaterabstractions
    arecurtailed(Peck,2007;McGuire,2009;Sophocleous,
    2010).Asimilardilemmaispresentinthemuchsmaller
    SanaabasininYemen:efectivepartnershipswith
    waterusersseemtheonlywaytopreventcatastrophic
    watershortagesinthenearfuture(Hydrosultetal.,
    2010).IntheUmatillabasin(Oregon)acommunity-
    basedapproachisattemptedtomanageconicts
    resultingfromaquiferdepletion(Jarvis,2010).The
    GreatArtesianBasin(Australia)iscompletely
    diferent:massivewasteofwaterfreelyowing
    fromartesianwellscanbeeliminatedbytechnical
    solutions.Althoughtheirimplementationisexpensive,
    thesemeasuresarelesscontroversialbecausethere
    isnoexplicitconictofinterests(Habermehl,2006;
    HerczegandLove,2007;SKM,2008;GABCC,2009).
    Shallowalluvialaquifersinaridandsemi-aridzones
    formaspecialcategory.Duetotheirlimitedstorage
    capacity,theyareafectedbyseasonalratherthan
    TABLE 36.3
    Groundwaterdepletionratesinlargeaquifersystems
    Aquifer or region Lateral
    extent km
    2
    Rate of depletion
    (in recent years)
    Period
    or year
    Reference
    km
    3
    per year mm water per year
    1
    Renewable groundwater
    High Plains, USA 483 844 12.4 26 20002007 McGuire (2003, 2009)
    Central Valley, California, USA 58 000 3.7 64 20032009 Famiglietti et al. (2009)
    NW India 438 000 17.7 40 20032009 Rodell et al. (2009)
    Northern India and surroundings 2 700 000 54 20 20032009 Tiwari et al. (2009)
    North China Plain 131 000 6.12 47 2004 Jia and You (2010)
    Non-renewable groundwater
    NW Sahara Aquifer System 1 019 000 1.5 1.5 2000 Margat (2008)
    Great Artesian basin 1 700 000 0.311 0.2 19652000 Welsh (2006)
    1
    Expressed as depth of an equivalent layer of water over the total horizontal extent of the aquifer system (scale-independent depletion
    indicator).
    WWDR4 765 GROUNDWATER
    enhancingirrigationefciencyorrecyclingusedwa-
    ter).Worldwideexperiencesshowthatsuccessfullyim-
    plementingmeasuresisdifcult,especiallyifexisting
    withdrawalsneedtobereducedandalternativesourc-
    esofwaterarenotavailable.Acommonunderstand-
    ingoftheproblemamongstakeholdersandtheirrm
    commitmenttosupportachosensolutionarecrucial.
    36.3.2Groundwaterqualityandpollution
    Althoughmostgroundwateraroundtheglobeatcon-
    ventionalwelldrillingdepthsisofgoodquality,itre-
    mainsamajorconcerntoprotectthiswateragainst
    qualitydegradationandpreventpoorqualityground-
    waterfromenteringactivefreshwatercycles.
    Trivialbutimportantistheoccurrenceofbrackishand
    salinegroundwater,untformostintendedground-
    wateruses.Mostgroundwateratgreatdepthsissaline.
    Accordingtoarecentglobalinventory(VanWeertet
    al.,2009),atshallowandintermediatedepths(upper
    500mbelowsurface,approximately)bodiesofbrackish
    orsalinegroundwaterarefoundunder13%ofthearea
    ofthecontinents.Only8%oftheidentiedbrackishor
    salinebodieshasananthropogenicorigin,withminer-
    alizationbyirrigationreturnowsasthepredominant
    mechanism.Risksofaddingnewsalineorbrackishwa-
    tertofreshgroundwaterdomainsarepresentnearthe
    coast(seawaterintrusion),inzonesofirrigatedlands
    andatlocationswhereliquidwasteisdumped.Asmost
    ofthesalineorbrackishgroundwaterbodiesareimmo-
    bile,itisagoodstrategytokeeptheminthatstate.The
    sameistrueforbodiesofgroundwaterwithexcessive
    concentrationsofothernaturalconstituents,suchas
    uorideorarsenic(Appelo,2008).
    Anthropogenicgroundwaterpollutionanditscontrol
    hasbeenamajorissuealreadyformanydecennia.Itis
    acomplexeldduetothemanysourcesofpollution,
    themyriadofsubstancesthatmaybeinvolved,large
    variationsinvulnerabilityofaquifers,lackofmonitor-
    ingdataanduncertaintiesonimpactsofexcessive
    concentrationsofpollutants,inadditiontotheusual
    dilemmasandproblemsindesigningandefectively
    implementingprogrammesforprotectionandcontrol
    (Morrisetal.,2003;Schmolletal.,2006).Asground-
    waterusuallyismovingveryslowly,groundwaterpol-
    lutionisalmostirreversibleoratleastverypersistent
    and,therefore,preventingandmonitoringpollution
    inuxesarebasiccomponentsofanycontrolstrat-
    egy.InEurope,animportantstepforwardisthenew
    GroundwaterDirective(GWD),introducedin2006
    asanintegralpartoftheWaterFrameworkDirective
    (WFD).GWDobligesEuropeanUnionmemberstates
    totakestepsleadingtowardscompliancewithgood
    chemicalstatuscriteriabytheendof2015.Reporting
    until2010revealsthat30%ofallgroundwaterbodies
    isunlikelytoachievetheenvisagedgoodqualitysta-
    tusby2015.However,GWDisexibleandofersthe
    memberstatestwooptions:adjustingthetargetsto
    morefeasiblevaluesanddelayingthecomplianceuntil
    2021or2027(EuropeanCommission,2006and2008;
    EuropeanEnvironmentalAgency,2010).
    Groundwaterqualityisalsoanimportantaspectinman-
    agedaquiferrecharge.Thismanagementtoolisinsome
    casesevenpurposelyusedtoimproveorcontrolwater
    quality,makinguseoftheaquiferscapacityforattenu-
    ationanddecompositionofsubstances,orusingthein-
    jectedwatertopreventexcessiveshrinkingofexploited
    freshwaterlensesoverlayingsalinegroundwater.Inall
    cases,however,thereshouldbeanawarenessthat
    managedaquiferrechargemayalsointroducerisks,
    includinggroundwaterpollutionrisks.Pageetal.(2010)
    presentanapproachforassessingsuchrisks.
    Inrecentyearsthereisgrowingattentionformicro-
    pollutants,inparticularforpharmaceuticals and per-
    sonal care products (PPCPs)andforendocrine disrup-
    tive compounds (EDCs)(Schmolletal.,2006;Musolf,
    2009;SIWI,2010).Disseminatedbysewage,landlls
    andmanure,thesesubstancesoccurinnaturalwaters
    inverylowconcentrationsonly(pgperLtongperL
    range)andarenotremovedbyconventionalwastewa-
    tertreatmentplants.Thereisstillmuchuncertaintyon
    theirpossibleimpacts.Pharmaceuticalsaredesignedto
    bebioactiveandalthoughingroundwatertheyaretoo
    dilutedtoprovidetherapeuticdosestohumansandani-
    malsontheshort-term,itisunknownwhattheirefects
    maybeafterlong-termexposure.EDCspresentin
    steroid-basedfoodsupplements,drugs,fungicides,her-
    bicidesandarangeofhouseholdandindustrialprod-
    uctshavethecapacitytointerferewiththefunctions
    ofhormonesthatcontrolgrowthandreproductionin
    humansandanimals.PPCPsandEDCsareubiquitousin
    surfacewaterandshallowgroundwater,andprogressin
    analyticalmethodsislikelytorevealthemmorewidely
    infutureyears.
    36.3.3Climatechange,climatevariabilityandsea
    levelrise
    Climatechangemodiesgroundwaterrecharge.Global
    hydrologicalmodelsrecentlyhaveproducedestimates
    CHAPTER36 SPECIALREPORTS 766
    ofmeanannualglobalgroundwaterrecharge,rang-
    ingfrom12,700km
    3
    peryear(DllandFiedler,2008)
    to15,200km
    3
    peryear(Wadaetal.,2010),whichis
    atleastthreeordersofmagnitudesmallerthanthe
    estimatedtotalgroundwaterstorage.Theseestimates
    andthecorrespondingspatialpatterns,however,are
    basedonmeanclimaticconditionsprevailingduring
    thesecondhalfofthetwentiethcentury.Forperiods
    ahead,newestimateshavetobeproduced,takinginto
    accountthepossibleinuenceofclimatechange.The
    latterhasbeensubjectofmodelinvestigationsbyDll
    (2009),usingfourIntergovernmentalPanelonClimate
    Change(IPCC)climatechangescenariosandcompar-
    ingthemodeloutcomeswiththoseofthereference
    period19611990.Sheconcludesthatbythe2050s
    groundwaterrechargeislikelytohaveincreasedinthe
    northernlatitudes,butstronglydecreased(by3070%
    orevenmore)insomecurrentlysemi-aridzones,in-
    cludingtheMediterranean,north-easternBraziland
    south-westernAfrica(Figure36.4).Simulationsforten
    otherclimatescenariosproduceddiferenttrendsfor
    someregions,exceptfortheMediterraneanregionand
    thehighnorthernlatitudes.Thefoursimulatedsce-
    nariosinFigure36.4suggestadecreaseofthelong-
    termmeanglobalgroundwaterrechargebymorethan
    10%.Climatechangeisdifculttopredictandatthe
    scaleoftensofyearsitishardtodistinguishitfrom
    theclimatevariabilityasproducedbyElNioSouthern
    Oscillation(ENSO),PacicDecadalOscillation(PDO),
    AtlanticMultidecadalOscillation(AMO)andoth-
    erinter-annualtomulti-decadalclimateoscillations
    (Gurdaketal.,2009).
    Climatechangewillnotonlychangemeanannual
    groundwaterrechargeandsurfacewaterow,itis
    expectedtoalsoafecttheirdistributionintime.Wet
    episodesmaybecomemoreconcentratedintimein
    manyregions,whiledryperiodstendtobecomelong-
    er.However,thiswillnotsignicantlyafectthewater
    supplycapacityofmostgroundwatersystems,dueto
    theirbufercapacity.Thebuferscannotpreventlong-
    termgroundwateravailabilitytodecreaseifclimate
    changereducesthemeanrechargerates,buttheyfa-
    cilitateagradualadaptationtonewconditions.
    Climatechangewillalsomodifywaterdemandsand
    wateruse.Asthepatternsofchangeinmeanground-
    waterrechargeshowninFigure36.4showpositive
    correlationwithpatternsofchangeinmeanprecipi-
    tationandmeanrunofaspredictedbyIPCC(Bates
    etal.,2008),itmaybeconcludedthathigherwater
    demandswillparticularlyafectareaswheremean
    groundwaterrechargeisexpectedtodecrease.This
    willproducesevereproblems,inthenumeroussmall
    andshallowwadiaquifersystemsscatteredoverarid
    andsemi-aridregionsprobablymorethananywhere
    else(VanderGun,2009).Nevertheless,itisexpected
    thatinmanyincreasinglywater-scarceareasaround
    theworld,dependencyongroundwaterwillincrease
    asthestoragebuferrendersgroundwatermoreresil-
    ientthansurfacewatersources.Thisisonemorerea-
    sontomanagegroundwatercarefullyinsuchregions.
    Ongoingandpredictedsealevelriseislargelycaused
    byclimatechange,butprogressivegroundwaterde-
    pletioncontributestoitaswell.KonikowandKendy
    (2005)arguethattheultimatesinkforgroundwater
    removedfromtheaquifersbydepletionistheoceans.
    Theycalculatethatthetotalvolumedepletedfromthe
    HighPlainsaquiferintheUSAduringthetwentieth
    centurycontributed0.75mmtosealevelrise,which
    is0.5%ofthetotalsealevelriseobservedduringthe
    twentiethcentury.ForallUSAaquiferscombined,the
    correspondingestimatesare2.03mmand1.3%,re-
    spectively(Konikow,2009).Wadaetal.(2010)esti-
    matedthatglobalgroundwaterstoragedepletionby
    theyear2000wouldhavecontributed0.8mmayear
    tosealevelrise,whichis25%ofthecurrentrateofsea
    levelriseaccordingtothelatestIPCCdata.Assuming
    thisestimateddepletiontobereasonablyreliable,thus
    asignicantpartofobservedsealevelriseislikelyto
    beproducedbycausesotherthanclimatechange.In
    relationtogroundwater,themainimpactofsealevel
    riseisintrusionofsalinewaterintocoastalaquifers.
    Worldwide,seawaterintrusionisarealthreattocoast-
    alaquifersandmayhavehugerepercussionsasalarge
    percentageoftheworldspopulationlivesincoast-
    alzones.Aseriesofpapersinarecentissueofthe
    Hydrogeology Journal providesageographicoverview
    ofsaltwaterfreshwaterinteractionsincoastalaquifers
    (Barlow,2010;Bocanegraetal.,2010;Custodio,2010;
    SteylandDennis,2010;WhiteandFalkland,2010).A
    recentstudyontheimpactofsealevelriseoncoastal
    groundwaterintheNetherlands(OudeEssinketal.,
    2010)concludedthatexpectedsealevelrisewillafect
    theDutchcoastalgroundwatersystemsandtrigger
    salinewaterintrusion,butonlyinanarrowzonewithin
    10kmfromthecoastlineandthemainlowlandrivers.
    36.3.4Transboundarygroundwaterresources
    Behaviourandfunctionsoftransboundaryaqui-
    fersdonotdiferfromthoseofotheraquifers,but
    WWDR4 767 GROUNDWATER
    administrativebordersthatcrossthemrendercoordi-
    nateddevelopmentandmanagementoftheirground-
    waterresourcesmorecomplex.Borderscomplicatethe
    acquisitionofconsistentinformationontheentireaq-
    uifer,whileallocatingaquifersegmentstodiferentju-
    risdictionsisatoddswiththetransboundaryefectsof
    pressureswithineachofthesesegments.Information
    gaps,conictinginterestsandlackofcoordination
    acrosstheboundarieseasilyleadtoproblemsthatare
    avoidableiftransboundaryaquifermanagementap-
    proachesareadopted.
    Enormousprogresshasbeenmadesincetransbound-
    aryaquiferswereputontheinternationalagendaat
    theendofthetwentiethcentury.Regionalinventories
    andcharacterizationoftransboundaryaquifersystems
    havebeenconductedundertheumbrellaoftheUnited
    NationsEconomicCommissionforEurope(UNECE)in
    Europe(UNECE,1999)aswellasintheCaucasus,Central
    AsiaandSouth-EastEurope(UNECE,2007);andunder
    theISARMprogrammeintheAmericas(UNESCO,2007
    and2008),Africa(UNESCO,2010a)andAsia(UNESCO,
    2010b).ThemapTransboundaryAquifersoftheWorld
    (IGRAC,2009),showingthelocationsandselectedprop-
    ertiesof318identiedtransboundaryaquifersinthe
    world,andISARMsAtlasofTransboundaryAquifers(Puri
    andAureli,2009)arebothlargelybasedontheout-
    comesoftheseregionalactivities.
    Atthelevelofindividualaquifers,importantprojects
    havebeencarriedoutorareongoingintheframe-
    workofGEFsIWfocalarea.Asanexample,the
    FIGURE 36.4
    Globalpatternofestimatedmeangroundwaterrechargein19611990andpercentagechangefrom19611990
    to20412070forfourIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)scenarios
    Note: Climate scenarios were computed using climate models ECHAM4 (Rckner et al., 1996) and HadCM3 (Gordon et al., 2000) on the basis
    of IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 (emissions increase during 19902050 from 11 to 25 Gt C per year) and B2 (from 11 to 16 Gt C per
    year), respectively.
    Source: Dll (2009, g. 1, p. 6).
    GWR1961-1990
    A2-ECHAM4 A2-HadCM3
    B2-ECHAM4 B2-HadCM3
    Groundwaterrechargeinmmperyear
    Changeofgroundwaterrechargein%
    02201003001050
    -100-70-30-10103070100 increasefrom0
    CHAPTER36 SPECIALREPORTS 768
    GuaranAquiferproject(Argentina,Brazil,Paraguay
    andUruguay)developedagreedtransboundaryaqui-
    fermanagementinstrumentsandthefourcountries
    involvedsignedinAugust2010anagreementonthis
    aquifersystem.
    Institutionalarrangementsandlegalinstrumentsare
    integralpartsoftransboundaryaquiferresourcesman-
    agement.Astudyongroundwaterininternationallaw
    byBurchiandMechlem(2005)showsthatinternational
    lawuntilrecentlyhasrarelytakenaccountofgroundwa-
    terandthatonlyfewlegalinstrumentsexistexclusively
    designedforgroundwater:fortheGenevaaquifer,the
    NubianSandstoneaquiferandtheNWSaharaaquifer
    system.Thedevelopmentofsuchinstrumentsisex-
    pectedtobecatalysedbytheDraftArticlesontheLaw
    ofTransboundaryAquifers,jointlyelaboratedbythe
    UnitedNationsInternationalLawCommission(UNILC)
    andtheUNESCOInternationalHydrologicalProgramme
    (IHP)during20022008andadoptedbyresolutionA/
    RES/63/124oftheUNGeneralAssemblyinDecember
    2008(Stephan,2009).Importantprinciplesincludedin
    theseDraftArticlesaretheobligationtocooperateand
    exchangeinformation,theno-harmprincipleandthe
    intentiontoprotect,preserveandmanagetheaquifer
    resources.
    TheUNGeneralAssemblyreafrmedinitssixty-sixth
    sessionon9December2011theimportanceoftrans-
    boundaryaquifersandtherelatedDraftArticles.
    ItadoptedaresolutioninwhichStatesareencouraged
    tomakeproperarrangementsfortransboundaryaquifer
    managementandUNESCO-IHPtocontinueitsrelated
    scienticandtechnicalsupporttotheStates.Inaddi-
    tion,theGeneralAssemblydecidedtoputTheLaw
    ofTransboundaryAquifersontheprovisionalagenda
    ofitssixty-eightsession,inordertoexamine-among
    others-thenalformtobegiventotheDraftArticles.
    Themomentumproducedbyallongoingtransbound-
    aryaquiferactivitiesaretransformingtransboundary
    aquifersfrompotentialproblemsintoopportunitiesfor
    internationalcooperation.
    Conclusions
    Groundwaterbyfarthelargestvolumeofunfrozen
    freshwateronEarthisanaturalresourceofenor-
    mousimportance,butitishiddentotheeyeandpoor-
    lyknownandunderstoodamongthegeneralpublic.
    Hydrogeologistsandotherscientistshavemadesig-
    nicantprogressoverthelastfewdecadesincollect-
    inginformationontheworldsgroundwatersystems,
    understandingtheirroleandfunctions,observing
    changesovertime,andidentifyingoptionsforenhanc-
    ingbenetsfromgroundwateraswellasthreatsthat
    needtobeaddressedtosafeguardtheresourcessus-
    tainability.Graduallyithasbecomeclearhowstrongly
    thedevelopmentandstateofgroundwatersystems
    areinterrelatedwithothersystemsandexternaldriv-
    ers.Ithasalsobecomeclearthatthevalueofground-
    waterisnotlimitedtoitsabstractionformultipleuses,
    butincludesarangeofvaluableinsituservices,such
    assupportofwetlands,springs,baseowsandstability
    ofthelandsurface.Asaresult,groundwaterresourc-
    esmanagementhasevolvedintoamulti-disciplinary
    activity,addressingmultipleobjectivesandnotonly
    focusingonphysicalsystemsandtechnicalmeasures,
    butalsopayingsignicantattentiontodemography,
    socio-economicsandgovernance.Moderngroundwa-
    terresourcesmanagementapproachesincorporatethe
    principlesofconjunctivemanagementandintegrated
    waterresourcesmanagement.
    Globallyaggregatedvaluesandsharesintotalwater
    supplyareindicatorsoftherelevanceofgroundwater,
    butitisworthlookingbeyondthevolumesofwater
    used.Withoutgroundwaterwithitsstoragebufer,
    manypartsofthedryerregionsonEarthwouldbein-
    habitableduetoseasonalorpermanentlackoffresh
    water,andwatersupplyinruralareasdistantfromper-
    manentstreamswouldbeextremelyexpensive.The
    economicreturnsperunitofwaterusedforirrigation
    andinothereconomicwaterusesectorstendtobe
    higherforgroundwaterthanforothersourcesofwater
    becauseofgroundwatershigherreliability.
    Groundwaterisintransitionthroughouttheworld.
    Currentstressesongroundwatersystemsareinmany
    partsoftheworldwithoutprecedentinhistory,asa
    resultofthesilentrevolutionandofprogressivepollu-
    tioninherenttomodernlifestyles.Thesestressesare
    increasingandproduceconsiderableriskanduncer-
    tainty.Willtherebeenoughgroundwaterinthefuture,
    andwillitsqualitymeettherequirementsofintended
    uses?Afterdeninghowtostrikeabalancebetween
    usingandconservinggroundwater,howshoulda
    correspondingbehaviourofpeoplebeestablished
    inrelationtothisopen-accessresourcethatoftenis
    consideredascommonproperty?Howshouldthe
    inowofanthropogenicpollutantsintoaquifersbe
    reduced?Suchquestionsposeenormouschallenges
    tothegroundwatercommunity,watermanagersand
    localstakeholders.Solutionshavetobetailoredtothe
    WWDR4 769 GROUNDWATER
    specicconditionsofeacharea.Basictothesuccess
    ofthesesolutionsareagoodunderstandingofthe
    trade-ofsbetweengroundwaterabstractionandother
    servicesoftheaquifer,andtheselectionofmeasures
    compatiblewiththesocio-politicalsetting.Therisks
    areinprinciplemanageable,buttheircontrolisnot
    easyandrequiressignicantmanagementeforts.
    Thebufercapacityofgroundwatersystems,onthe
    otherhand,ofersuniqueopportunitiesfortheover-
    allreductionofriskanduncertaintyregardingwater
    availability,nowandinthefuture.Changesovertime
    oftheavailabilityandqualityofgroundwaterproceed
    veryslowlycomparedtothoseofthecomponentsof
    thewatercyclewithsmallermeanresidencetimes,
    andthepredictabilityofthesechangesismuchbetter
    forgroundwater.Thisenablesgroundwatertobridge
    prolongeddryperiodsandallowstimetosmoothly
    adjustoverallwateruseinareaswherereducedlevels
    ofsustainablewateravailabilityareexpectedtoresult
    fromintensicationofwateruseupoworfromcli-
    matechange.

    Notes
    1 InJune2010NASAandDLRsignedanagreementtocontinue
    thecurrentGRACEmissionthrough2015(NASA,2010).
    2 Mostvaluesmentionedinthisparagraphareglobally
    aggregatedoraveragedandthereforecannotbeusedtodraw
    conclusionsonconditionsatalocalorregionalscale.
    3 Siebertetal.(2010)estimateglobalconsumptiveirrigation
    waterusetobe1277km
    3
    peryear,being48%oftheglobal
    agriculturalwaterwithdrawals.Theirestimatefortheshare
    ofgroundwaterinthisgure(545km
    3
    peryear),isfairly
    consistentwiththeestimatedglobalgroundwaterabstraction
    forirrigation,takingintoaccountirrigationwaterlosses.
    4 Theaccuracyofthisglobaldepletiongureobtainedby
    modellingissignicantlylowerthanmostoftheestimates
    showninTable36.3.Whilethelatterarebasedonobservation,
    theglobalgureisafectedbygroundwaterabstractiondata
    ofvariablequality,highlysimplifyingmodelassumptionsand
    averagingoverlargespatialunits.
    5 Aqanatisaslightlyslopingtunnel,designedfortapping
    groundwaterandconveyingitundergravity,oftenoveralarge
    distance,intoanopensection,fromwhereitcanbedivertedforuse.


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    WWDR4 773 GROUNDWATER
    BOXES, TABLES AND FIGURES
    BOXES
    15.1 Conservationanddemandhardening 389
    15.2 Decision-makingunderclimateuncertainty 396
    16.1 RisksofsalinityintrusionthreatenthewatersupplyofAdelaide,Australia 404
    16.2 Financingandcostrecovery 407
    16.3 WaterqualityandquantityimpactsofmininginPeru 408
    16.4 Reducedwaterquantityequalsreducedwaterquality:FluorosisinIndia 408
    16.5 Riskofhormonalmodicationsinecosystempopulations 411
    16.6 BangPakongpollutiondestroysvaluableecosystemassetsandincomeopportunities 412
    16.7 LakeeutrophicationinChina 413
    16.8 TheBaselConvention 414
    16.9 ChilikaLake:Slowdeteriorationandrapidrecovery 415
    17.1 Water-savingsanitationmethods:Reviewingtheoptions 430
    17.2 Singapore:Amodelofintegratedwatermanagement 433
    17.3 Policiesandlegislationonrainwaterharvestingfromaroundtheworld 434
    17.4 Decentralizedandcommunity-basedsanitationsystems 435
    17.5 TheSustainableSanitationandWaterManagementToolbox 436
    20.1 WaterstewardshipatMolsonCoors 493
    20.2 ThewaterfootprintofCoca-Cola 494
    20.3 Industrygovernmentcollaboration:RioTintoandtheWesternAustralianWaterCorporation 496
    20.4 UNIDOMED-TESTintegratedapproach 497
    21.1 Wetlandsaswatertreatmentinfrastructure:Kolkata,India 505
    21.2 Ecosystemsolutionsforwaterqualityrisks 506
    21.3 Maintainingows:TheMekongRiverAgreement 506
    21.4 AssessingecosystemservicesintheMississippiRiverDelta,USA 507
    21.5 Vittel,France 508
    21.6 Netbenetsofecosystemconversion 510
    21.7 FragmentationoftheDanubeRiverbasin,CentralEurope 511
    21.8 GroundwaternitratecontaminationintheUnitedKingdom 511
    21.9 Ecosystemsontheedge:TheAmazonbasinforestsandwater 512
    21.10 Wetlandrestorationasasustainableoptiontoaddressincreasingoodrisk:TheWash,UnitedKingdom 513
    21.11 Ecosystem-basedmanagementintegratedintothemanagementoftheKomaduguYobebasin,Nigeria 514
    22.1 Wickedproblemsinwatermanagement 520
    22.2 Principaluncertaintiesrelatedtowaterallocation 521
    22.3 Waterasahumanright 522
    22.4 DeschutesRiverBasin:Waterbankingforsurfacewaterandgroundwater 523
    22.5 ModellingthebenetsofjointlyoperatedreservoirsinmitigatingenvironmentalimpactintheZambeziRiverbasin 524
    22.6 Sustainablediversionslimits(SDLs)intheMurrayDarlingbasin 526
    22.7 UnresolvedwaterallocationintheLermaChapalabasin 526
    22.8 FarmermanagedgroundwatersystemsinAndhraPradesh 527
    22.9 Multi-stakeholderplanningintheAlouetteRiverinCanada 528
    22.10Groundwateruseandre-useinthetransboundarySantaCruzRiverbasin 528
    22.11 TriplewinontheBlueNilethroughtransboundarycooperationoninfrastructuredevelopment 529
    22.12 Innovativeapproachesforimprovingdamplanningandoperationsforoptimizedwaterallocationbenets 529
    23.1 Categoriesofeconomicvalues 535
    773 WWDR4 BOXES,TABLESANDFIGURES
    CHAPTER36 SPECIALREPORTS 774 CHAPTER30 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 774
    23.2 Valuingwatersindirectbenetstosupportinvestmentdecisions 536
    23.3 Valuingtheefectsthatwater-relateddiseaseshaveonproductivitycanimproveinvestmenttargeting 537
    23.4 Valuingthebenetsofwatercandeneinternationalprioritiesandtargetsupportatthepoor 537
    23.5 Valuingthebenetsofsanitationcanfostergovernmentactionandredoublethefocusonsanitation 539
    23.6 Balancingbenetsandcostswhenassessingwatermanagementoptions:
    NewltrationinfrastructuresversuswatercatchmentprotectioninNewYork 541
    23.7 Valuingnon-marketecosystemservicesintheEuropeanUnioncaninformdecisionsonenvironmental
    objectivesinplanningprocesses 542
    23.8 Stakeholder-orientedvaluationcansupportallocationdecisionswatermanagementinTanzania 542
    23.9 Valuationofscarcityinwatermarkets 543
    23.10Valuingbenetssupportscooperationininternationalriverbasins 543
    23.11 Valuationcansupportthedesignofsubsidiesandtargetednancing 544
    23.12 ValuingcompensationpaymentsforenvironmentalservicesinChina 546
    23.13 Valuingtheeconomiclosesofdroughtsandtheefectsofclimatechangecanmakethecaseforpoliticalaction 546
    24.1 Theimpactthatthenancialcrisishashadonaccesstoimprovedwatersupplysources:
    Threealternativescenarios 553
    24.2 Reducingtheamountofnon-revenuewater 557
    24.3 Waterusersassociationsasanessentialcomponentinimprovingcostrecovery:
    AnirrigationsystemsexamplefromtheKyrgyzRepublic 558
    24.4 Thecostofagriculturalwaterdemand 559
    24.5 WhattheEuropeanUnionWaterFrameworkDirectivesaysaboutwaterpricing 560
    25.1 Institutionalchangeinwatersupplyandsanitationservices 573
    25.2 Institutionaladaptationatthelocalscale:Respondingtoclimateuncertainties
    throughfarmermicro-insuranceschemes 574
    25.3 Time-boundmultilateralinstitutions:AnEUcommonwaterimplementationstrategy 575
    25.4 Watergovernancereform:SuccessfuldelegationofwatergovernanceinCanada 576
    26.1 Genderchallenges 584
    26.2 Changingtides:ChangemanagementattheNetherlandsMinistryofTransport,PublicWorks
    andWaterManagement 585
    26.3 Womensparticipationintheadaptationandmitigationprocesses 586
    26.4 EnhancingadaptivecapacityintheMekongbasin 587
    26.5 Sourcesforcapacitydevelopment 590
    26.6 HowtosavewaterinPalestine 592
    26.7 Adaptivewatermanagement(AWM)traininghelpsgroupstofaceuncertaintyandrisk 593
    26.8 Adaptiveriverbasinmanagement:TheNeWateronlineteachingcurriculum 593
    26.9 Strengtheninglocalownership:TheLakeVictoriaRegionWaterandSanitationInitiative 594
    26.10TheOnlineTrainingSystemforWaterProfessionals(TOTWAT) 596
    26.11 SociallearningandAWMintheSouthIndianLowerBhavani 596
    27.1 Extremewater-relateddisastersin2010 602
    27.2 DatafromasystematicregistrationofdisasterinMozambique 603
    27.3 Exampleofdroughtimpacts 604
    27.4 FromtheDisasterRiskIndextotheMortalityRiskIndex 608
    27.5 TheMississippiwetlands 611
    27.6 Micro-lendingtoassistwatershedrestorationanddevelopmentinMaharashtraState,India 613
    27.7 Examplesshowingthevalueofecosystemservicestoreducingdisasterrisk 614
    28.1 Roleofsoilfaunainmaintainingsoilwaterholdingcapacities 629
    28.2 ApproachestointroducingpaymentforecosystemservicesexamplesfromKenya 632
    28.3 Participatorywatershedmanagement:AcasefromIndia 633
    28.4 Usingsustainablelandmanagementpracticestoadapttoandmitigatetheefectsofdroughtandwaterscarcity 634
    29.1 ThePanAfricanWaterConference 651
    29.2 TheAfricanWaterDevelopmentReport(AWDR) 651
    774 KNOWLEDGEBASE
    WWDR4 775 GROUNDWATER WWDR4 775 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA
    29.3 Financingwater:TheroleofAfDB 652
    30.1 WaterqualityofriversandlakesintheUnitedStates 660
    30.2 Abstractionpressuretosatisfywaterneedsinmajorcities 661
    30.3 AgricultureinCentralAsia 662
    30.4 HydromorphologicalalterationsintheDanubeBasin 663
    30.5 Impactofthe20082009globaleconomiccrisis 666
    30.6 WastewatertreatmentinfrastructureintheRepublicofMoldova 668
    31.1 PaymentsforEcosystemServices(PES)inAsiaandthePacic 684
    31.2 WaterSHED:Usingmarketstobringwater,sanitation,andhygienetoAsiaspoor 687
    32.1 LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanandtheglobalnancialcrisis 697
    32.2 UseofweatherforecastsinPeru 700
    32.3 TheColombianexperiencewithwastewaterdischargefees 702
    32.4 InvestmentinsanitationinfrastructureinChile 703
    33.1 AccesstoWaterSupplyandSanitationintheArabRegion 709
    33.2 WaterconictsinYemen 713
    34.1 Safedrinkingwaterstrategiesforreducingwaterbornedisease 726
    34.2 Sanitationstrategiesfordiseaseprevention 728
    34.3 Hygienepromotion 728
    34.4 Healthimpactassessmentspromotehealthacrossdiversesectors 729
    34.5 Environmentalmanagementstrategiestoreduceandpreventvector-bornediseases 731
    35.1 Womencarrythewaterburden 744
    35.2 Gendermainstreamingthroughefectivepolicyformulation 746
    35.3 MakingparticipatoryirrigationdevelopmentbenecialforwomenintheUnitedRepublicofTanzania 748
    35.4 ExtractionanduseofJatrophaoilbyavillagewomensgrouptopowersheabutterprocessingequipmentinGhana 749
    35.5 Improvingaccessforthepoor:PhnomPenhWaterSupplyAuthority,PhnomPenh,Cambodia 751
    TABLES
    15.1 Estimatesofrenewablewatersupply,therenewablesupplyaccessibletohumans,and
    thepopulationservedbytherenewablesupplyindiferentecosystemsandregions 384
    16.1 Estimateddeathsofchildrenundertheageofve 409
    16.2 Estimatedimpactsoftoxicpollution 410
    16.3 Summaryofmajorrisksandtheirmaindrivers 416
    16.4 Countriesleastlikelytoexpresssatisfactionwiththequalityofwaterintheircommunities 418
    16.5 Summaryofpossiblewaterqualityinterventionsbyscale 418
    17.1 Tenlargesturbanconurbations,19602025 425
    18.1 Waterwithdrawalbysectorandfreshwaterwithdrawalbyregion(2005) 443
    18.2 Countrygroupings 444
    18.3 Relativewaterfootprintsofvariousindustrysectors 445
    18.4 Precipitationandrenewablefreshwaterresourcesbyregion 447
    18.5 Netchangesinmajorlanduse 448
    18.6 Population,areasandgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)byregion 449
    18.7 Pressureonwaterresourcesduetoirrigation 450
    18.8 Evolutionofareaequippedforirrigation,groundwaterirrigationandpercentageofcultivatedland 451
    18.9 Waterrequirementsforbiofuelcrops 455
    18.10 Estimatedglobalannualwaterconsumptionofgrazing,fodderandfeedproductionforlivestock 457
    18.11 WateruseandemissiondatainDanishandNorwegianslaughterhouses 460
    18.12 Estimatednitrogenandphosphorousemissionsinwatersystems 460
    19.1 Waterusedvariesfordiferentfuels,powercyclesandcoolingmethods 469
    19.2 Waterandwastewatertreatmentandconveyancerequiresvastamountsofenergy 471
    23.1 OverallbenetsofachievingtheMDGsforwaterandsanitation 536
    23.2 Typesofbenetattachedtodiferentwaterandsanitationinterventions 540
    775 WWDR4 BOXES,TABLESANDFIGURES
    CHAPTER36 SPECIALREPORTS 776 CHAPTER30 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 776
    23.3 Valuationtechniquesforwater 547
    24.1 Medianoperatingcostcoverageinutilities 560
    24.2 Averagerevenuesperm
    3
    watersold(inUS$) 564
    26.1 CAREsframeworkforcommunity-basedadaptation 588
    26.2 Indicatorsforassessingadaptivecapacity 591
    27.1 Summaryofcasestudyndingsonthesocialdistributionofdisasterloss 605
    27.2 Floodexposurebyregion(inmillionsofpeopleperyear) 607
    28.1 GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)percapitaandHumanDevelopmentIndicesofcountrieswithdrylandsareas 624
    30.1 Groupingofthe56UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope(UNECE)MemberStates 657
    30.2 Mainpressuresonwaterresourcesinorderofpriority 658
    30.3 Selectedwatermanagementissuesandresponses 659
    31.1 MemberstatesoftheEconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacic(ESCAP)inthevesubregions 673
    31.2 Percentageofmaleandfemale-headedhouseholdswithaccesstosafedrinkingwater 677
    31.3 RegionalIntegratedWaterResourcesManagement(IWRM)initiatives 678
    31.4 Country-specicIntegratedWaterResourcesManagement(IWRM)initiatives 679
    31.5 ChronologyofmajorrecentwaterconictsinAsia,20002008 680
    31.6 Basicframeworkfordeningwaterhotspots 682
    36.1 Top10groundwaterabstractingcountries(asat2010) 760
    36.2 Keyestimatesonglobalgroundwaterabstraction(2010) 761
    36.3 Groundwaterdepletionratesinlargeaquifersystems 764
    FIGURES
    15.1 Cumulativedistributionofthepopulationwithrespecttofreshwaterservices,19952000 385
    15.2 Percapitawaterrequirementsforfood 386
    15.3 Nationalpercapitawaterfootprintandthecontributionofdiferentconsumptioncategoriesforselectedcountries 387
    15.4 Contributionofmajorconsumerstotheglobalwaterfootprint 388
    15.5 Globalphysicalandeconomicwaterscarcity 390
    15.6 Projectedpercapitawateravailabilityin2050 391
    15.7 PaleoreconstructionoftheColoradoRiverstreamow 393
    15.8 Examplereservoirrulecurve 395
    16.1 Hazardouswastegenerationin2001asreportedbythePartiestotheBaselConvention 405
    16.2 Hazardousindustrialsite,waterpollutionandmininghotspotsintheBalkans 406
    16.3 Probabilityofoccurrenceofexcessivelyhigharsenicconcentrationsingroundwater 410
    16.4 Modelledorganicloadingbasedondiferenttypesofsewagetreatment 412
    16.5 Worldhypoxicandeutrophiccoastalareas 413
    16.6 Annualcostoftheenvironmentaldegradationofwater 415
    16.7 Wastewater:Aglobalproblemwithdiferingregionalissues 417
    17.1 Proportionofworldpopulationlivinginurbanareas,19602050 424
    17.2 Slumpopulationbyregion,19902020 426
    17.3 Issuesandsolutionsrelatedtowaterandurbanization 427
    17.4 Changesinglobalwateruse,bysector 428
    17.5 Urbanfreshwaterandwastewatercycle:Waterwithdrawalandpollutantdischarge 429
    17.6 Ratiooftreatedtountreatedwastewaterdischargedintowaterbodies(March2010) 429
    18.1 Millionsofruralpeoplelivinginextremepoverty(lessthanUS$1.25perday)byregion 442
    18.2 Waterwithdrawalbysectorbyregion(2005) 442
    18.3 Renewablewaterresourcesperpersonin2008 446
    18.4 Wetlandswaterqualitystatechangesbycontinent 448
    18.5 Sourcesofagriculturalgreenhousegasesexcludinglandusechange 453
    18.6 Totalgreenhousegasemissionsfromtheagriculturalsectorbysource 454
    18.7 Waterusealongthevaluechain,fromproductiontorecycling 456
    18.8 Globalannualwaterconsumptionforlivestockgrazing,fodderandfeedproduction 458
    776 KNOWLEDGEBASE
    WWDR4 777 GROUNDWATER WWDR4 777 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA
    18.9 DataforwaterconsumptioninatypicalItalianpigslaughterhouse 459
    18.10 TypicalwaterusebyamarketmilkprocessorinAustralia 459
    18.11 NitrogenassociatedwiththeproductionofpigsandchickensinJapan 461
    19.1 Theenergywaternexus 467
    19.2 Powerplantstypicallyusethreetypesofcooling 468
    19.3 EnergyowsforthepublicwatersupplysystemintheUSA 472
    19.4 Theenergyclimatewatercyclecreatesaself-reinforcingchallenge 474
    19.5 Waterintensityoftransportation 476
    20.1 Globalfreshwaterusebysectoratthebeginningofthetwenty-rstcentury 483
    20.2 WaterprolefortheCanadianforestproductsindustry 484
    20.3 WatercostsinCanadianmanufacturingindustriesbycostcomponent,2005 485
    20.4 Inter-relationshipofwaterrisksbetweenbusiness,governmentandsociety 487
    20.5 Aggregatedglobalgapbetweenexistingaccessible,reliablesupplyand2030waterwithdrawals,
    assumingnoefciencygains 488
    20.6 Theproductionchainforcotton 489
    20.7 Business-as-usualapproacheswillnotmeetdemandforrawwater 490
    20.8 RioTintoswaterbalance(2009) 491
    20.9 Theclosed-loopproductionsystem 492
    20.10Theevolutionofsustainablemanufacturingconceptsandpractices 495
    20.11 Conceptualrelationshipsbetweensustainablemanufacturingandeco-innovation 498
    20.12Theconceptofchemicalleasing 499
    21.1 TheGlobalLivingPlanetIndex,allbiomes(19702007) 509
    21.2 TheFreshwaterLivingPlanetIndex(19702007) 509
    22.1 Waterentitlements,waterallocation,waterdistributionandwaterusearedynamically
    linked,andtakeplacewithintheboundaryof(changing)wateravailability 519
    22.2 Designingaexibleirrigationsystembasedonrisksharing,proportionalwaterallocation
    andanadaptableirrigatedarea 520
    23.1 Accesstowaterandpotentialgainsintermsofgender,equityandeducationopportunitiesforchildren 538
    23.2 Theviciousspiraloflowfunding 545
    24.1 Investmentinwaterprojectswithprivateparticipation(19902010) 555
    24.2 Waterprojectswithprivateparticipation,bysubsector(19902010) 556
    25.1 Keyconstraintstodoingbusinessinseveralgeographicandeconomicregions 570
    26.1 Schematicofcapacitydevelopmentatdiferentlevels,showinginputs,outcomesandmethodsofmeasurement 589
    26.2 Majorareasforinformationandcommunicationstechnologyinwatermanagement 595
    27.1 Recordeddroughtfatalitiesperyear,19902009 603
    27.2 Hazardmortalityrisk(ood,tropicalcyclonesandprecipitation-triggeredlandslides) 606
    27.3 Peopleexposedtooods 607
    27.4 ExtentofoodinginPakistanon30August2010 608
    27.5 InterpolatedglobalmapproductforthesixmonthStandardizedPrecipitationIndex(SPI) 609
    28.1 Theimpactofdesertication,landdegradationanddroughtinPialiVillage,India 621
    28.2 Theextentofdrylandsystemsworldwide 622
    28.3 Projectedwatersupplyinmajorwatershedsindrylandsby2025:Waterscarcity
    willbeexacerbatedinmanykeydrylandareasworldwide 626
    28.4 Worldsmajorwatersheds 627
    28.5 Projectedimpactsofclimatechangeonperennialdrainagedensity 628
    28.6 Thesustainablelandmanagementvirtuouscircleofimprovementstartswithlandconditionimprovement 634
    29.1 AnnualGDPgrowthrate 641
    29.2 PercapitaGDP(constant$US) 641
    29.3 Dynamicsofsub-SaharanAfricaeconomicgrowth 642
    29.4 Fastestgrowingeconomiesofsub-SaharanAfrica 642
    29.5 PopulationdistributioninAfrica 644
    777 WWDR4 BOXES,TABLESANDFIGURES
    CHAPTER36 SPECIALREPORTS 778 CHAPTER30 MANAGINGWATERUNDERUNCERTAINTYANDRISK 778
    29.6 Comparativepopulationgrowthrate 644
    31.1 Totalrenewablewaterpercapita(totalrenewable/population),globalregions(2007) 675
    31.2 Asia-Pacicwaterhotspots 683
    32.1 LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean:GDPatconstant2005prices,19512010(variationrates) 694
    32.2 AnnualaveragerateofpopulationgrowthforLatinAmericaandselectedsingle
    countries(19502050) 696
    32.3 GreenhousegasemissionsfromLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanasashare
    oftheglobaltotal(19902005) 699
    33.1 Domesticwaterconsumptionrelativetogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)percapita 710
    33.2 RenewablewaterresourcesintheArabregionpercapita 711
    34.1 Diseaseswiththelargestwater,sanitationandhygienecontributionin2000 725
    34.2 Driver,pressure,state,exposure,efectandaction(DPSEEA)modelforwaterbornediseases 726
    34.3 Driver,pressure,state,exposure,efectandaction(DPSEEA)modelforwater-washeddiseases 727
    34.4 Driver,pressure,state,exposure,efectandaction(DPSEEA)modelofwater-baseddiseases 729
    34.5 Driver,pressure,state,exposure,efectandaction(DPSEEA)modelofthewater-relatedinsect
    vectordiseasesmalaria,onchocerciasis,JapaneseencephalitisandlymphaticlariasisinAfrica 730
    34.6 Drivers,pressure,state,exposure,efectandaction(DPSEEA)modelofthewater-related
    insectvectordiseaseslymphaticlariasis(AsiaandtheAmericas)anddengue 731
    34.7 CholeracasesreportedtotheWorldHealthOrganizationbetween2000and2010 732
    34.8 Hierarchicalmodelforenvironmentalcholeratransmission 733
    36.1 Groundwaterresourcesoftheworld 759
    36.2 Groundwaterabstractiontrendsinselectedcountries 760
    36.3 Groundwaterdevelopmentstressindicatoratcountrylevel 763
    36.4 Globalpatternofestimatedmeangroundwaterrechargein19611990andpercentagechangefrom19611990
    to20412070forfourIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)scenarios 767
    778 KNOWLEDGEBASE
    9 789231 042355
    The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP) is hosted by UNESCO and brings together the
    work of 28 UN-Water members and partners in the triennial World Water Development Report (WWDR).
    This agship report is a comprehensive review that gives an overall picture of the worlds freshwater resources. It
    analyses pressures from decisions that drive demand for water and afect its availability. It ofers tools and response
    options to help leaders in government, the private sector and civil society address current and future challenges. It
    suggests ways in which institutions can be reformed and their behaviour modied, and explores possible sources of
    nancing for the urgently needed investment in water.
    The WWDR4 is a milestone within the WWDR series, reporting directly on regions and highlighting hotspots, and it
    has been mainstreamed for gender equality. It introduces a thematic approach Managing Water under Uncertainty
    and Risk in the context of a world which is changing faster than ever in often unforeseeable ways, with increasing
    uncertainties and risks. It highlights that historical experience will no longer be sufcient to approximate the
    relationship between the quantities of available water and shifting future demands. Like the earlier editions, the
    WWDR4 also contains country-level case studies describing the progress made in meeting water-related objectives.
    The WWDR4 also seeks to show that water has a central role in all aspects of economic development and social
    welfare, and that concerted action via a collective approach of the water-using sectors is needed to ensure waters
    many benets are maximized and shared equitably and that water-related development goals are achieved.

    UN-Water is the United Nations (UN) inter-agency coordination mechanism for all freshwater related issues. It was
    formally established in 2003 building on a long history of collaboration in the UN family. It currently counts 29 UN
    Members and 25 other international Partners. UN-Water complements and adds value to existing UN initiatives by
    facilitating synergies and joint eforts among the implementing agencies. See www.unwater.org
    Cultural Organization
    Educational, Scientific and
    United Nations
    Report
    Facing
    the Challenges

    THE UNITED NATIONS WORLD WATER
    DEVELOPMENT REPORT 4
    VOLUME 3
    Facing
    the Challenges

    THE UNITED NATIONS WORLD WATER
    DEVELOPMENT REPORT 4
    VOLUME 3
    Publishedin2012bytheUnitedNationsEducational,
    ScienticandCulturalOrganization
    7,placedeFontenoy,75352Paris07SP,France
    UNESCO2012
    Allrightsreserved
    Chapter24,Investinginwaterinfrastructure,itsoperationandits
    maintenance,TheInternationalBankforReconstructionand
    Development/TheWorldBank
    1818HStreet,NW,Washington,DC20433,USA
    ISBN978-92-3-104235-5
    e-bookISBN978-92-3-001045-4
    Originaltitle:TheUnitedNationsWorldWaterDevelopment
    Report4:Managing Water under Uncertainty and Risk(Vol.1),
    Knowledge Base(Vol.2)andFacing the Challenges(Vol.3).
    Publishedin2012bytheUnitedNationsEducational,
    ScienticandCulturalOrganization
    UNESCOPublishing:http://publishing.unesco.org/
    Suggestedcitation:
    WWAP(WorldWaterAssessmentProgramme).2012.The United
    Nations World Water Development Report 4: Managing Water under
    Uncertainty and Risk.Paris,UNESCO.
    Thedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterial
    throughoutthispublicationdonotimplytheexpressionofany
    opinionwhatsoeveronthepartofUNESCOconcerningthelegal
    statusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,or
    concerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.
    Theideasandopinionsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseof
    theauthors;theyarenotnecessarilythoseofUNESCOanddonot
    committheOrganization.

    ThecontentsofVolume2werecontributedbytheUN-Water
    membersandpartnerslistedonthetitlepagesofthechapters
    therein.UNESCOandtheUnitedNationsWorldWaterAssessment
    Programme(WWAP)arenotresponsibleforerrorsinthecontent
    providedorfordiscrepanciesindataandcontentbetween
    contributedchapters.
    WWAPprovidedtheopportunityforindividualstobelistedas
    authorsandcontributorsortobeacknowledgedinVolume2.
    WWAPisnotresponsibleforanyomissionsinthisregard.

    CoverandinteriordesignandtypesettingbyPhoenixDesignAid
    A/S,anISO14001(environmentalmanagement)andaDS49001
    (corporatesocialresponsibility)certiedandapprovedcarbon
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    PrintedbyImprimerieCentraleS.A.(ImprimVertcertied)for
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    ThispublicationisprintedwithvegetableinksonFSCMixedSources
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    Printed in Luxembourg
    WWDR4hasbeenpublishedonbehalfoftheUnitedNationsWorld
    WaterAssessmentProgramme(WWAP)withthesupportofthe
    followingorganizations:
    United Nations Funds and Programmes
    UnitedNationsChildrensFund(UNICEF)
    UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD)
    UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAfairs
    (UNDESA)
    UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP)
    UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)
    UnitedNationsHighCommissionerforRefugees(UNHCR)
    UnitedNationsHumanSettlementsProgramme(UN-HABITAT)
    UnitedNationsUniversity(UNU)
    Specialized UN Agencies
    FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)
    InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA)
    InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment
    (WorldBank)
    InternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment(IFAD)
    InternationalLabourOrganization(ILO)
    UnitedNationsEducational,ScienticandCulturalOrganization
    (UNESCO)
    UnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization(UNIDO)
    UnitedNationsInstituteforTrainingandResearch(UNITAR)
    WorldHealthOrganization(WHO)
    WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)
    WorldTourismOrganization(UNWTO)
    United Nations Regional Commissions
    EconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacic
    (UNESCAP)
    EconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia(UNESCWA)
    EconomicCommissionforAfrica(UNECA)
    EconomicCommissionforEurope(UNECE)
    EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
    (UNECLAC)
    Secretariats of United Nations Conventions and Decades
    SecretariatoftheConventiontoCombatDesertication(UNCCD)
    SecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(CBD)
    SecretariatoftheInternationalStrategyforDisasterReduction
    (UNISDR)
    UnitedNationsClimateChangeSecretariat(UNFCCC)
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    Foreword iii
    by Olcay nver, Coordinator, United Nations World Water Assessment Programme
    Summary iv
    Case study development process and highlights of the ndings
    AFRICA
    Chapter 37. Ghana 779
    Chapter 38. Mara River basin, Kenya and Tanzania 786

    ARAB STATES
    Chapter 39. Jordan 792
    Chapter 40. Morocco 798
    ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
    Chapter 41. Murray-Darling basin, Australia 803
    Chapter 42. Yellow River basin, China 809
    Chapter 43. Jeju Island, Korea 814
    Chapter 44. Pakistan, with special reference to the Indus River basin 820
    EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA
    Chapter 45. Czech Republic 826
    Chapter 46. Marseille Provence Mtropole Urban Community, France 830
    Chapter 47. Tiber River basin, Italy 835
    Chapter 48. Tagus River basin, Portugal 842
    Chapter 49. St Johns River basin, Florida, United States of America 847
    LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
    Chapter 50. Costa Rica 853
    Chapter 51. Lerma-Chapala basin, Mexico 860
    Boxes, tables, gures and maps 866
    i WWDR4 TABLEOFCONTENTS
    We cant solve problems by using
    the same kind of thinking we used
    when we created them.
    Albert Einstein
    FACINGTHECHALLENGES ii
    iii
    Fromitsrsteditionin2003,theUnited Nations World Water Development Report
    (WWDR)hasshownhowdecisionsmadeineveryrealmoflifeandworkcanhave
    animpactonourwaterresources.Rapidlychangingconditionsacrosstheglobeare
    creatingnewpressuresonwater,andintroducingnewuncertaintiesandrisksfor
    itsuseandmanagement.Theresilienceofsocietiestocopewiththesechallenges
    variesgreatly,largelydeterminedbytheirinstitutionalandlegalframeworksandthe
    availabilityofnancialandhumanresources.
    CasestudiesareasignicantpartofeachWWDR.Collectively,theyillustratethe
    challengesthatconfrontpolicy-makersandwatermanagersaroundtheglobe,and
    howtheyarerespondingtothem.Thepresentvolume,FacingtheChallenges,features
    concisesummariesoffteencasestudiescompiledoveraperiodofthreeyears,
    providingsnapshotsofwatermanagementandusetodayindiverseregionsofthe
    world.Thesecasestudies,bydesign,closelycomplementtheothervolumesofthe
    2012World Water Development Report 4,asmostofthefactorsinuencingwater
    resourcesmanagementdiscussedinthosevolumescanbeobserved,inoneformor
    another,inthepagespresentedhere.
    SincethelaunchoftheUnitedNationsWorldWaterAssessmentProgramme(WWAP)
    in2000,thenumberofcasestudieshascontinuouslyrisen.Overall,58regional
    studiesatthebasinornationallevelhavebeencompletedsofar,throughpartnerships
    withnationalbodiesworldwide.Themobilizationofkeystakeholdersisalsoimportant
    tothedevelopmentofcasestudyprojects.Aswemoveforward,WWAPwillcontinue
    workingwithnationalpartnersandotherstakeholderstodevelopfurthercasestudies
    ofwatermanagementanduseindiversecountriesandriverbasins,toachieveaswide
    aregionalcoverageaspossible.
    Thisvolumeconstitutesavaluablecontributiontotheinternationalcommunity.The
    experiencesandpoliciesitdescribesprovidediferentperspectivesforallthose
    workingtowardssustainabledevelopmentnotonlywaterprofessionals,but
    managersanddecisionmakersatalllevels,andresearchersfromwithinoroutsidethe
    waterbox
    1
    helpingalltomakeinformeddecisionswithbetterknowledge.
    Olcay nver
    Coordinator,UnitedNationsWorldWaterAssessmentProgramme
    FOREWORD
    by Olcay nver, Coordinator, United Nations
    World Water Assessment Programme

    Olcay nver

    Note
    1 TheconceptofthewaterboxisusedinthethirdeditionoftheWorld Water Development Reportto
    describethespecicsphere(thewatersector)towhichquestionsofwatermanagementaretoo-often
    conned.
    WWDR4 FOREWORD
    UNEP

    Authors XxxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxxxx
    Contributors XxxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxxxx
    Acknowledgements XxxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxxxx
    CHAPTER 37
    Lorem ipsum dolor
    ThisfourtheditionoftheUnited NationsWorld Water
    Development Report(WWDR)features15casestudies
    fromdiferentgeographiesoftheworld.Fortherst
    time,therearepilotstudiesfromNorthAmerica(St
    JohnsRiverBasin,Florida,USA)andtheMiddleEast
    (Jordan).AswithpreviousvolumesoftheWWDR,
    thefocuscontinuestobeonthecommonchallenges
    thatthecountriesandregionsincludedarefacing:the
    managementandallocationoffreshwaterresources,
    shortcomingsininstitutionalandlegalframeworks,
    environmentaldegradation,decliningwaterquality,and
    therisksposedbyclimaticvariationsandclimatechange.
    Theregionaldistributionofcasestudiesthatare
    featuredinthisvolumeisshowninthemapbelow.
    SUMMARY
    Case study development process and
    highlights of the ndings
    Eightofthesepilotprojects(Seemapbelow,
    casestudies2,5,6,10,11,12,13and15)havebeen
    conductedattheriverbasinlevel,whiletheothers
    showcasenationaleforts.Althoughthemajorityofthe
    countriesthatparticipatedinthedevelopmentofthese
    casestudiesarenewWWAPpartners,veofthem
    China,France,Italy,MexicoandtheRepublicofKorea
    havealsocontributedtoearliervolumesoftheWWDR.
    Wewouldliketoexpressourdeepappreciationtoall
    ourcountrypartnersfortheirsignicantinput.
    Thisvolumepresentsconcisesummariesofthese
    15casestudyreports,theoriginalversionsofwhich
    representapproximatelyonethousandpages.The
    amountofworkthatwentintopreparingthefull
    iv FACINGTHECHALLENGES
    Regionaldistributionofthecasestudies
    PACIFIC
    OCEAN
    PACIFIC
    OCEAN
    INDIAN
    OCEAN
    ATLANTIC
    OCEAN
    AFRICA
    1. Ghana
    2. Kenya-Tanzania
    (Mara River basin)
    ARAB STATES
    3. Jordan
    4. Morocco
    ASIA and the PACIFIC
    5. Australia (Murray-Darling basin)
    6. China (Yellow River basin)
    7. Korea (Jeju Island)
    8. Pakistan (with special reference
    to the Indus River basin)
    EUROPE and NORTH AMERICA
    9. Czech Republic
    10. France (Marseille Provence
    Mtropole Urban Community)
    11. Italy (Tiber River basin)
    12. Portugal (Tagus River basin)
    13. United States of America
    (St Johns River basin, Florida)
    LATIN AMERICA and the CARIBBEAN
    14. Costa Rica
    15. Mexico (Lerma-Chapala basin)
    Countries included in both Africa and Arab States
    Regions of UNESCO
    Countries included in both Europe/North America
    and Asia/Pacic Regions of UNESCO
    9
    1
    3
    4
    2
    6
    7
    8
    5
    14
    15
    13
    12
    10
    11
    v
    casestudyreportsandtheirconcisesummariesis
    noteworthy:onaverageeachreportwentthroughtwo
    iterationstoensurethequalityofthenalstudies.
    Theareascoveredbythecasestudiesvarygreatly.In
    thisedition,JejuIsland,Koreaisthesmallestinsize
    (approximately1,850km2)whereastheYellowRiver
    basin,China(approximately795,000km2)andthe
    MurrayDarlingRiverbasin,Australia(morethana
    millionkm2)arethetwolargest.
    Theconcisesummariesprovideasnapshotofreality.
    Theypresentthecurrentsituationofwaterresources
    andtheiruseineachareacoveredthroughacommon
    frameworkthatincludesthestateoftheresource,
    howwaterresourcesareutilized,competitionamong
    sectors,legalandadministrativeframeworks,the
    statusofecosystems,impactsofclimatechange
    andclimaticvariations,waterrelateddisasters,and
    more.Boxeshighlightimportantrecentevents(the
    catastrophicoodinPakistan,therecentdroughtin
    theMurrayDarlingbasin),keywater-relatedprojects
    (ecosystemconservationefortsinJordan,sediment
    loadreductionintheYellowRiverbasin,attempts
    tointroducepaymentforecosystemservicesinthe
    MaraRiverbasin)andthestructureandfunctioning
    ofriverbasinorganizations(theLermaChapalaBasin
    CouncilinMexico,riverbasindistrictadministrationsin
    Portugal).
    Regardlessofacountryslevelofdevelopment,water
    resourcesmanagementandprotectionareareas
    whereconstantimprovementissought.Australiahas
    producedablueprintforwaterreforminits2004
    NationalWaterInitiative,whileonJejuIsland(Republic
    ofKorea)thereisaclearunderstandingofthe
    importanceofintegratedwaterresourcemanagement
    forefectiveplanning.Strictcontrolofwaterallocation
    atthedistrictlevelintheYellowRiverbasinensures
    theowoftheriverthroughoutitscourse,and
    especiallytoitslowerreaches.Thegovernment
    ofPakistanisworkingtoreformirrigationwater
    managementintheIndusRiverbasin,andinthe
    StJohnsRiverbasin(Florida,USA)theWatershed
    RestorationActhashelpedcontrolproblemsof
    pollution.The2000EUWaterFrameworkDirective
    isbeingimplementedbyallEuropeannations,with
    diferentcountriescurrentlyatdiferentstagesof
    completingitsrequirements.
    Climatechangeandclimaticvariationsarelikelyto
    posechallengesofvaryingdegreeandintensity.
    Whileseveralmodelssuggestlikelyscenarios,
    somecountrieshavealreadystartedexperiencing
    theefectsofclimatechangeintheshapeofmore
    frequentandintensewater-relatednaturaldisasters
    (e.g.oods,droughts,mudslides,tornados).
    Almostallofourcasestudypartnersreported
    increasingvariabilityintheoccurrenceofsuch
    events.Allofthesecountries,withoutexception,
    havemechanismsandlegislationsinplacefor
    disastermitigation,however,theirinstitutionaland
    nancialcapacitytorespondwhensuchdisasters
    strikearecloselylinkedtotheirlevelofeconomic
    development.
    Cooperationamongripariancountriesinthe
    contextofinternationalwaterresourcesiscritical
    forthesharingandprotectionofscarcewater
    resourcesinaneraofincreasingclimaticvariability
    andclimatechange.JordanandIsraelreached
    anagreementonwaterrightsintheJordanRiver
    basinintheir1994peacetreaty.InthecaseofSpain
    andPortugal,theAlbufeiraConventionappliesto
    severaltransboundaryriversandcoversissuessuch
    astheexchangeofinformation,pollutioncontrol
    andprevention,theevaluationofthetransboundary
    impactsofwateruses,andconictresolutionand
    WWDR4 SUMMARY
    theassignmentofrights.TheConventionallows
    forfuturerevisionstoensuretheachievementof
    environmentalobjectivessetatbasinlevelandto
    integrateclimatechangeadaptationmeasures.
    Cooperationisvitalforsharedwaterresourcesinthe
    nationalcontext,too.TheYellowRiverbasincrosses
    nineprovincesofChina,howeverthe1987Water
    AllocationSchemeand2006ordinancehavecreated
    thebasisforregulatingwaterusetosatisfydemandin
    allprovincesandimproveenvironmentalconditions,
    especiallyinthelowerreachesofthebasin.
    Waterandfoodsecurityareamongthemost
    importantissuesofconcernnotonlyinaridregions,
    suchasJordanandMorocco,butalsoinregions
    thatarewellendowedintermsofwaterresources.
    InGhana,forexample,theabsenceofadequate
    storageandagro-processingfacilitiesleadstolosses
    ofperishablecrops.Overall,increasingdemographic
    pressuresandclimaticvariations,suchasoodsand
    droughts,thatafectcropyieldsareotherdriversthat
    diminishfoodsecurity.
    Thecasestudiesrevealthatapproachestowards
    sustainableutilizationofwaterresourcesareevolving
    inthedirectionofintegratedwaterresources
    management(IWRM).Theneedtointegratesurface
    waterandgroundwaterresourceswithinbasinsandto
    balancecompetingsectoralinterestswiththeneeds
    ofecosystemsareincreasinglyacceptedatalllevels
    ofgovernance.However,considerableprogressis
    necessarytomaketheIWRMapproachamainstream
    objectiveatthegloballevel.Thesameobservation
    appliestotheattainmentoftheMillennium
    DevelopmentGoals(MDGs),forwhichthereare
    blatantregionaldisparities.
    Thecasestudiesclearlyhighlightthediversityof
    circumstances,challengesandprioritiesfacing
    diferentregions.Consequently,efortstowards
    attainingwidercoveragewillcontinueinsubsequent
    editionsoftheWWDR,asadditionalcasestudy
    partnersaresought.
    vi FACINGTHECHALLENGES
    CHAPTER 37
    Ghana

    Acknowledgements KodwoAndah,BenAmpomah,
    ChristineYoungAdjei,WinstonEkowAndah
    Shutterstock/SteveHeap
    780 CHAPTER37 AFRICA
    intheextremenorth.Thehighestannualrainfallis
    2,150mmintheextremesouth-westofthecountry,
    andthisreducesprogressivelytoalowof800mmin
    thesouth-eastandabout1,000mminthenorth-east.
    Disparityinthegeographicalandseasonaldistribution
    ofprecipitationcauseswaterstressatthelocaland
    regionallevels.Forexample,eveninthehighrainfallbelt
    inthesouthandwest,waterscarcityinthedryseason
    canlastthreetovemonths.Inthenorthernandthe
    south-easternregions,whererainfallisthelowest,thedry
    seasoncontinuesovereighttoninemonths.
    Ghanahasarelativelydiverseandrichnaturalresource
    baseprincipallygold,diamonds,manganeseore,and
    bauxite.GoldandcocoaareGhanastoptwoexports,
    andthecountryhasbeenanoilexportersince2010.
    Location and general characteristics
    TheRepublicofGhana(Ghanafromhereon)islocated
    inWestAfrica.ItisboundedtothenorthbyBurkina
    Faso,totheeastbyTogo,tothewestbyCtedIvoire
    andtothesouthbytheGulfofGuineaandtheAtlantic
    Ocean(Map37.1).Thecountryextendsoveranareaof
    238,540km2,andithas24.3millioninhabitants(2010).
    Thenationalcapital,Accra,ishometoabout2million
    people(2009).
    Thetopographyconsistsmainlyofrollingplains,
    escarpmentsandlowhillranges.Thehighest
    elevationinGhana,MountAfadjatointheAkwapim
    TogoRanges,rises880mabovesealevel.Ghana
    hasawarm,humidtropicalclimate.Meanannual
    temperaturesrangefrom26Cnearthecoastto29C
    MAP 37.1
    Ghana
    Wa
    Sunyani
    Kumasi
    Koforidua
    Tamale
    Bolgatanga
    Ho
    Accra
    Sekondi-Takoradi
    Cape Coast
    V
    o
    lta

    B
    l
    a
    c
    k

    V
    o
    lta
    W
    h
    i
    t
    e
    V
    o
    lta
    K
    o
    l
    p
    a
    w
    n

    B
    l
    a
    c
    k

    V
    o
    l
    t
    a

    D
    a
    k
    a

    O
    t
    i

    P
    r
    u

    Tai n

    B
    i
    a

    T
    a
    n
    o

    A
    n
    k
    o
    b
    r
    a

    P
    r
    a

    A
    n
    u
    m

    B
    i
    r
    i
    m

    A
    fr
    a
    m

    GULF
    OF GUI NEA
    ATLANTI C
    OCEAN
    Lake
    Volta
    Lake
    Bosumtwi
    Keta
    Lagoon
    A F A S O A N AA B U R K I N A F A S O A B U R K I N A F A S B U R K BB U R K I N A F A S OO I OO A F A S A NN B U R K I B
    T O G O
    B E N I N
    C T E
    D ' I V O I R E
    0 25 50 75 100 km

    City
    Hydroelectric
    power plant
    National park
    Basin
    Ramsar site
    International boundary
    781 WWDR4 GHANA
    recharge.Groundwaterabstractionisprojectedto
    increasebyapproximately70%inordertomeetthe
    waterdemandin2020.
    Sincethebeginningofthe1980s,theGovernment
    ofGhanahasintroducedanumberofpolicyreforms
    thatwerespeciallyintendedtoimproveefciency
    inrural,urbanandirrigationwateruseaswellasto
    attainmeasuresofenvironmentalprotectionand
    conservation.Thekeyproblemwastheabsenceof
    aholisticwaterpolicythatincludedallaspectsof
    waterresourcesmanagement.TheWaterResources
    Commission,whichwasestablishedin1996toregulate
    andmanagetheuseoffreshwaterresourcesandto
    coordinatepoliciesinrelationtothem,respondedto
    thischallengebyintroducingthedraftWaterPolicyin
    2002.Awiderconsultativeprocesswasinitiatedlater
    in2004toincorporatepoliciesthatwerespecicto
    watersupplyandsanitationservices.ThedraftPolicy
    wasfurtherenhancedthroughintegrationofthe
    principlesofenvironmentalassessmenttopromote
    thesustainabilityofnaturalresources.In2007,the
    NationalWaterPolicywhichtookanintegrated
    waterresourcesmanagementapproachasoneofits
    coreprincipleswasapproved.Thepolicyrecognizes
    thevariouscross-sectoralissuesrelatedtowater
    use,andthelinkstootherrelevantsectoralpolicies
    suchasthoseonsanitation,agriculture,transport
    andenergy(MWRWH,2007).Thisholisticapproach
    makesthewaterpolicycomplementarytothenational
    PovertyReductionStrategyandtheAfricaWater
    VisionputforwardbytheNewPartnershipforAfricas
    Development(NEPAD).

    Intermsofinstitutionalframework,watersector
    reformsthatstartedinthe1990sledtothe
    establishmentofGhana'sEnvironmentalProtection
    Agencyin1994,andtheWaterResourcesCommission
    in1996.ThePublicUtilitiesRegulatoryCommission
    waslaunchedin1997toregulateandoverseethe
    provisionofutilities.GhanaWaterCompanyLimited
    wassetupin1998toprovidewatersupplytourban
    areas.Thesameyear,theCommunityWaterand
    SanitationAgencywasestablishedtoadministerrural
    watersupplies.
    Climate change, water-related disasters and
    risk management
    Ghanaoftenexperiencesoodsanddroughts,
    particularlyinthenorthernSavannahbelt.Thecountry
    facedwidespreadoodsin1962and1963.Then
    Water resources availability, their use
    and management
    Ghanaisdrainedbythreemainriversystems.These
    aretheVolta,South-WesternandCoastalriversystems,
    whichrespectivelycover70%,22%and8%ofthe
    country.TheVoltariversystemconsistsoftheOtiand
    Dakarivers,theWhiteandBlackVolta,andthePru,
    SeneandAframrivers.Thesouth-westernriversystem
    comprisestheBia,Tano,AnkobraandPrarivers.The
    coastalriversystemincludestheOchi-Nakwa,Ochi
    Amissah,Ayensu,DensuandTordzierivers.The
    totalannualrunoffromalltheriverscombinedis
    56.5billionm3ofwater,ofwhich40billionm3is
    accountedforbytheVoltaRiver.Approximately40%
    oftotalwaterresourcesavailabilityoriginatesoutside
    Ghanasterritory.
    TheonlysignicantnaturalfreshwaterlakeisLake
    Bosumtwi,whichhasasurfaceareaof50km2,anda
    depthof78m.LakeVolta,whichisthereservoirofthe
    AkosomboDam,isoneoftheworldslargestarticial
    lakes,anditcoversanareaof8,500km2.
    In2000,totalwaterwithdrawalwasapproximately
    980millionm3.Ofthis,about652millionm3(66%)
    wasusedforirrigationandraisinglivestock,
    235millionm3(24%)wasusedforwatersupplyand
    sanitation,and95millionm3(10%)wasusedby
    industry.Non-consumptivewateruseforgenerating
    hydroelectricity(onlyattheAkosomboDam),is
    around38billionm3peryear(FAO-Aquastat,n.d.).
    Theconsumptivewaterdemandfor2020isprojected
    toreach5billionm3.
    Agricultureformsthemostimportantsegmentof
    theeconomy(Box37.1),accountingforabout30%
    ofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)andabout55%
    offormalemployment.Industry,includingmining,
    manufacturing,constructionandelectricitygeneration,
    accountsforabout20%ofGDP.Theservicessector
    hasbeengrowingfast,andnowgenerateshalfof
    nationalGDP(2010).Povertyratesinthecountryare
    notevenlydispersed.
    WhileGhanahasover50,000boreholesandhand-
    dugwells,thecountrysgroundwaterresourcesare
    notwellstudied.However,annualrenewablecapacity
    isestimatedtobearound26billionm3(2005).Inthe
    Voltabasin,annualgroundwateruseisapproximately
    90millionm3.Measurementsinotherbasinssimilarly
    showedthatactualuseiswellbelowgroundwater
    782 AFRICA CHAPTER37
    between1991and2008,thereweresixmajoroods.
    The1991oodafectedapproximately2million
    peopleandthecatastrophicoodsinthenorthin
    2007afectedmorethan325,000Ghanaians,with
    closeto100,000requiringassistancetorestore
    theirlivelihoods(UN-ISDR/WB,2009).In2011,there
    weremanyoodsacrossthecountry,especiallyin
    theeasternandnorthernregions.Scienticstudies
    suggestthattheperiodicityof5.6yearsishighly
    signicantforoodoccurrence.Attheoppositeend
    ofthespectrum,Ghanaalsoexperiencedsignicant
    droughtsin1977,1983and1992.Infact,the2007
    oodwasfollowedimmediatelybyaperiodof
    droughtthatdamagedtheinitialmaizeharvest.The
    economicimpactofwater-relateddisastersatthe
    nationalandregionallevelsisnotwelldocumented.
    Withinternationalsupport,Ghanadevelopednational
    climatechangescenariosandclimatechange
    vulnerabilityassessmentstudiesforwaterresources
    andthecoastalzone.Majorndingswerethatover
    a30-yearperiodfrom1961to1990,temperatures
    rosebyabout1C,rainfallwasreducedby20%,and
    streamowsdroppedby30%.Flowreductionsof
    between15%and20%wereobservedforsimulations
    usingclimatechangescenariosfor2020;and
    reductionsofbetween30%and40%wereobserved
    forsimulationsusingclimatechangescenariosfor
    2050.Thesimulationspredictedthatthereductionin
    groundwaterrechargewouldbebetween5%and22%
    by2020,andbetween30%and40%by2050.The
    maizeyieldwaspredictedtodecreasebyabout7%
    in2020.Itwasfoundthatmilletyieldwouldprobably
    notbeafectedbecauseitismoretolerantofhigher
    temperatures.
    Itwasfoundtoothatirrigationwaterdemandcould
    beafectedconsiderablybyclimatechange.The
    simulationsrevealedthatinthehumidpartofthe
    country,theincreaseinirrigationwaterdemandcould
    rangefromabout40%(2020)and150%(2050)of
    thebaseperiodwaterdemand.Forthedryinterior
    Savannah,thecorrespondingincreaseinirrigation
    waterdemandin2020and2050couldbeabout
    150%and1200%respectively.Hydropowergeneration
    couldalsobeseriouslyafectedbyclimatechange.
    Theprojectedreductionoftheamountofelectricity
    generatedby2020canbeabout60%.Inthecoastal
    zone,over1,000km2

    oflandmaybelostdueto
    sealevelrise,whichcouldbeashighasonemetre.
    Consequently,over130,000residentslivingalong
    theeastcoastareconsideredtobeatrisk.Important
    InGhana,overallsustainedeconomicandagriculturalgrowthhasbeenaccompaniedbyrapidpovertyreduction.Growthhas
    createdavibrantmarketforlocalfarmers,andhigherincomeshavereducedpovertyandledtoincreasesinfooddemand.
    Thankstoeconomicreformsthatbeganin1983,Ghanawasabletoturnitsagriculturesectoraround.Astableeconomy,
    marketliberalization,andimprovedinfrastructurehaverestoredincentivestofarm,whichhasbothbenetedsmallfarmers
    andencouragedsomelarge-scaleinvestmentincashcropssuchaspineapplesandpalmoil.After1983,agriculturegrewat
    anaverageannualrateof5.1%.Foodsupplyhasbeengrowingfasterthanthepopulationgrowthrate,makingGhanalargely
    self-sufcientintermsofstaples.Atthesametime,foodpriceshavefallen.Moreaccessiblefoodhelpedtolowertherate
    ofundernourishmentfrom34%in1991downto8%by2003.Childmalnutritionalsodeclined,withtheproportionofunder-
    weightinfantsfallingfrom30%in1988to17%in2008.Theproportionofthepopulationlivinginpovertyfellfrom52%in1991
    to28.5%in2006,withruralpovertyfallingfrom64%to40%overthesameperiod.Themostrecentestimatessuggestthat
    only10%oftheurbanpopulationlivesbelowthepovertyline(IFAD,n.d.).Overall,GhanaisontracktoachievetheMillennium
    DevelopmentGoalofhalvingpovertyandhunger(MDG1).
    However,inspiteofthesedevelopments,foodsecurityisnotinplaceinGhana.Of19,000km2ofpotentiallyirrigableland,
    only338km2isirrigated(2007).Inaddition,therehabilitationofmanyoftheirrigationschemesislongoverdue.Another
    challengefacingGhanaislossesinperishablecropsasaresultoftheabsenceofadequatestorageandagro-processingfa-
    cilities.Climaticvariations,suchasoodsanddroughtsthatafectthecropyield,andarapidlygrowingpopulationalsohave
    anegativeimpactonfoodsecurity.
    BOX 37.1
    Agricultureandfoodsecurity
    Source: FAO-Aquastat (n.d.).
    WWDR4 783 GHANA
    wetlands,especiallyintheVoltaDelta,maybelost
    asaresultoflanderosionandinundation.Increased
    waterdepthsandthesalinizationoflagoonsasa
    resultofsealevelrisecouldhaveanegativeimpact
    onthefeedingofmigratoryandlocalbirds.
    Confrontedwithwater-relatedandothernatural
    hazards,theGovernmentofGhana,withthehelp
    ofdonorsupport,isintheprocessofdeveloping
    strategiesandstrengtheningitsinstitutionalcapacity
    indisasterriskmanagement.Disasterriskreductionis
    theresponsibilityoftheNationalDisasterManagement
    Organization(NADMO),establishedintheMinistry
    oftheInterior.NADMOfunctionsunderanational
    secretariatandcomprisesanetworkoftenregional
    secretariats,168district/municipalsecretariats
    and900localofces.Sinceitsinceptionunder
    parliamentaryAct517in1996,NADMOhascontributed
    considerablytodisastermanagementacrossthe
    country.However,itsactivitiesandresponsecapacity
    onthegroundareconstrainedbyalackofadequate
    funding(NADMO,2011).The1997NationalDisaster
    ManagementPlanwasrevisedin2009alongwith
    aparliamentaryamendmenttoAct517.Inorderto
    accomplishitsobjectives,NADMOhassetuptechnical
    sub-committeestocoveralltypesofdisasters
    includinggeologicalandhydro-meteorologicalevents,
    pestandinsectinfestations,bushresandlightning,
    diseaseoutbreaksandepidemics.
    Water and health
    Eventhough90%ofpeopleinurbanareashaveaccess
    tosafedrinkingwater,onlyabout32%hadhome
    connectionsin2008comparedtoabout40%in
    2000.Thisdropincoverageisbecauseinfrastructural
    developmentisfallingbehindtherateofpopulation
    growthandurbanization.Thecoverageinruralareasin
    2008was60%.
    Theportionofpopulationthathasaccesstoimproved
    sanitationfacilitiesisverylow.In2008,itwasonly18%
    inurbanareasand7%inruralareas(UNICEF,n.d.a).
    Closeto40%ofallpublicschoolshavenoaccessto
    safedrinkingwater;andabout50%ofpublicschools
    havenotoiletfacilities(2011).Asaresult,water-
    relateddiseases,suchasmalaria,schistosomiasis,
    guineawormandlymphaticlariasisarecommon.
    AccordingtotheWorldMalariaReport(WHO,2009)
    therewere3.2millionreportedmalariacasesin2008.
    Ofthosecases,approximately1millionafected
    childrenundertheageofve.Malariaisanationwide
    problemthatclaimsthelivesofapproximately20,000
    childreneveryyear.Theannualeconomicburdenof
    malariaisestimated1%to2%ofGDP(UNICEF,n.d.b).
    Othercommunicablediseasessuchascholeraand
    yellowfeverarealsowidespreadinGhanaandcause
    epidemicsfromtimetotime.Asacombinedresultof
    theseproblems,lifeexpectancyisabout58years.
    Itisestimatedthat51.5%ofthepopulationlives
    inurbansettlements,andin2007,approximately
    5millionpeoplewerelivinginslumswithlimitedor
    nowatersupply(UN-HABITAT,2008).Thisledtothe
    emergenceofwatervendorstoservicesuchdeprived
    areas,whoarenowgroupedunderthePrivateWater
    TankerOwnersAssociation.Unfortunately,those
    whorelyonwatertankersusuallypaymorethanten
    timestheofcialrateforpipedwaterandendup
    spendingover10%oftheirincomeonpotablewater.
    Toimprovethesituation,aWaterSectorRehabilitation
    Projectwasinitiatedin1992.Furthermore,the
    WaterSectorRestructuringProgramme(2003
    2009)wasimplementedtoimprovetheprovisionof
    waterbybuildingnewproductionandtransmission
    facilitiesandrehabilitatingtheexistingonesin
    urbanareas.Consequently,waterproductionby
    GhanaWaterCompanyLimitedincreasedsteadily
    from205.2millionm3to231.77millionm3between
    2003and2009.Since2006,ithascarriedoutmajor
    expansionandrehabilitationworksonanumberof
    urbanwatersupplysystemsthroughoutthecountry.
    Itmustbenotedthattheunaccountedforwater(i.e.
    non-revenuewater)inthewatersupplynetworkisstill
    around50%(MWRWH,2009).
    Environment and ecosystems
    Thereisalackofinformationonthewealthof
    Ghanasbiodiversity.Sofar,about2,974indigenous
    plantspecies,504shspecies,728birdspecies,
    225diferenttypesofmammals,and221speciesof
    amphibiansandreptileshavebeenrecorded.Some
    16%ofGhanaslandhasbeendesignatedasforest
    reserve,nationalparkorotherwildlifereserve.Five
    wetlandareastheDensuDelta,theSongor,the
    KetaLagoonComplex,theMuni-Pomadzecoastal
    wetlandsandtheSakumoLagoonareRamsarsites
    ofinternationalimportance.Otherwetlandslocated
    intheforestandwildlifereservesoftheMoleNational
    Park,theBlackVolta,theSene,theBiaandtheOwabi
    WildlifeSanctuariesarealsoprotected(FAO-Aquastat,
    n.d.).Despitetheseeforts,increasingpressurefrom
    agriculturalexpansion,mining,timberextractionand
    784 AFRICA CHAPTER37
    othersocio-economicfactorshavehadanegative
    impactontheenvironmentandtheecosystems.It
    isestimatedthatthecountryisexperiencingarapid
    deforestationatabout220km2peryear.Ineconomic
    terms,thelossofbiodiversitythroughdeforestation
    andlanddegradationisestimatedtocostabout
    US$1.2billionannually(Agyemang,2011).Thisis
    partiallytheresultofuncoordinatedimplementation
    ofsectoralsocio-economicdevelopmentpolicies.
    Thesituationwarrantsurgentactioniffurther
    environmentaldegradationistobeaverted(Ministry
    ofEnvironmentandScience,2002).
    Eventhoughindustrialwaterdemandaccountsfor
    around10%ofannualwateruse,industrialactivities
    arethemainsourceofpollution.Thisaddstowater
    stressandimpairsthehealthofsociety.Miningisthe
    industrialactivitythatcontributesmosttopollution.
    The2008reportofGhana'sCommissionforHuman
    RightsandAdministrativeJusticestressedthat82
    riversandstreamsinveminingcommunitiesin
    Ghanahadeitherbeenpolluted,destroyed,diverted
    ordried-upasaresultofminingcompanies.In
    its2010evaluationreport,Ghana'sEnvironmental
    ProtectionAgencyconcludedthatminingcompanies
    observationofenvironmentalstandardsispoor.
    Thisiscausedbyenvironmentallawsthatarenot
    sufcientlystrictonpollutionprevention.Themajor
    concernliesnotwiththebigminingrms,whose
    activitiesareeasytomonitor,butwithillegalsmall-
    scaleminerswhoseactivitiesareneitherregistered
    normonitored.
    Water and energy
    Ghanahasoneofthehighestratesofelectrication
    inAfrica.Accesstoelectricityinurbanareasis
    closeto70%,andalmost30%ofruralhouseholds
    areconnected.Onaverage,accesstoelectricityin
    Ghanaisabout60%(IEA,2009).Therearetwomain
    largedamsinoperationinGhanawithacombined
    hydropowergenerationcapacityof1,072MW:the
    AkosomboDam(134mhigh)andtheKpongDam
    (29mhigh).Theseplantsharnessapproximately
    58%ofthecountrys10,600GWh/yearhydropower
    potential.Theconstructionofthe400MWBui
    hydropowerplantontheBlackVoltabeganin2005
    andisexpectedtocommenceenergyproduction
    towardstheendof2012.Sitesforafurther17
    potentialhydroelectricpowerplantshavebeen
    identied,andfeasibilitystudieshavebeencarried
    out.Oncetheseprojectsarephasedin,uctuations
    inthesupplyofelectricitycausedbydroughtswill
    stabilize.
    Conclusions
    Ghanaiswellendowedwithfreshwaterresources.
    However,disparityindistributioncauseswaterstress,
    whichisfurtherworsenedbytheuncertaintiesposed
    byclimatechange,climaticvariation,rapidpopulation
    growth,environmentaldegradationandpollution.
    Thankstocontinuouseconomicgrowth,thecountry
    isontracktomeettheMillenniumDevelopmentGoal
    (MDG)oneradicatingextremepovertyandhunger.
    However,roughly40%ofruraldwellersremainpoor.
    Oneofthemostcriticalchallengesfacingthecountry
    isverypooraccesstoimprovedsanitationfacilities.
    Combinedwithalessthanidealwatersupplynetwork,
    diseasessuchasmalaria,choleraandyellowfeverare
    widespread,causingsignicantnumbersofcasualties.
    Foodsecurityisanotherconcernthatleavesthe
    countryatthemercyofclimaticvariationsandmakes
    itdependentonimportedfoodtofeeditsgrowing
    population.Increasingtheamountofcultivatedland
    (bothrainfedandirrigated),improvingtheirrigation
    infrastructureanddevelopingtheagro-industryare
    crucialissuesthatrequirebothnationalinvestment
    andinternationaldonorsupport.Miningactivities,
    whilecreatingconsiderableamountofincome,are
    amongthemaincausesofwaterqualitydegradation.
    Strengtheningenvironmentalprotectionlawsand
    enforcingthemrequiresurgentaction.Inadequateand
    unreliabledataonwaterresourcesandtheiruseisthe
    majorroadblocktosustainabledevelopment.

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheCase Study
    Report of Ghanapreparedin2011byKodwohAndah
    (unpublished).
    Agyemang,I.2011.Analysisofthesocio-economicand
    culturalimplicationsofenvironmentaldegradationin
    NorthernGhanausingqualitativeapproach.African
    Journal of History and Culture,Vol.3,No.7,pp.11322.
    www.academicjournals.org/ajhc/PDF/pdf2011/Aug/
    Agyemang.pdf
    FAO-Aquastat.n.d.Ghana Country Prole.Rome,FAO.http://
    www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries_regions/ghana/
    index.stm.(Accessed14December2011.)
    WWDR4 785 GHANA
    IEA(InternationalEnergyAgency)2010.2009.The Electricity
    Access Debate.Paris,IEA.http://www.worldenergyoutlook.
    org/database_electricity10/electricity_database_
    web_2010.htm.
    IFAD(InternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment).n.d.
    Rural Poverty Portal, Rural poverty in Ghana. Rome,IFAD.
    http://www.ruralpovertyportal.org/web/guest/country/
    home/tags/ghana.(Accessed15December2011.
    MinistryofEnvironmentandScience,Ghana.2002.National
    Biodiversity Strategy for Ghana. Accra,Ministryof
    EnvironmentandScience.http://www.cbd.int/doc/world/
    gh/gh-nbsap-01-en.pdf
    MWRWH(MinistryofWaterResources,WorksandHousing,
    Ghana).2007.National Water Policy. Accra,Ministryof
    WaterResources,WorksandHousing.www.water-mwrwh.
    com/WaterPolicy.pdf
    .2009.Ghana Water and Sanitation Sector
    Performance Report.Accra,MWRWH.wsmp.org/
    downloads/4d8ca15ec1a12.pdf
    NADMO(NationalDisasterManagementOrganization).2011.
    Ghana National Progress Report on the Implementation
    of the Hyogo Framework for Action (20092011).
    Geneva,PreventionWeb.http://www.preventionweb.net/
    les/15600_gha_NationalHFAprogress_2009-11.pdf
    UN-HABITAT(UnitedNationsAgencyforHumanSettlement).
    2008.State of the Worlds Cities 2010/2011: Bridging
    the Urban Divide.London/Nairobi, Earthscan/UN-
    HABITAT.http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.
    aspx?publicationID=2917
    UNICEF(UnitedNationsChildrensFund).n.d.a.At a Glance:
    Ghana,Statistics.NewYork,UNICEF.http://www.unicef.
    org/infobycountry/ghana_statistics.html(Accessed14
    December2011.)
    .n.d.b.Ghana Fact Sheet,July2007.Accra,UNICEF
    http://www.unicef.org/wcaro/WCARO_Ghana_Factsheet_
    malaria.pdf
    UN-ISDR/WB(InternationalStrategyforDisasterReduction/
    WorldBank).2009. Disaster Risk Management Programs
    for Priority Countries: Summary, 2009.Geneva/
    WashingtonDC,UNISDR/WorldBank.www.unisdr.org/les
    /14757_6thCGCountryProgramSummaries1.pdf
    WHO(WorldHealthOrganization).2009.World Malaria
    Report 2009: 31 High-Burden Countries. Geneva,WHO.
    http://www.who.int/entity/malaria/world_malaria_
    report_2009/all_mal2009_proles.pdf.
    CHAPTER 38
    Mara River Basin,
    Kenya and Tanzania

    Acknowledgements NathanKarres,
    ImanYazdani,MariaC.Donoso,MichaelMcClain
    Shutterstock/EricIssele
    WWDR4 787 MARARIVERBASIN,KENYAANDTANZANIA
    Location and general characteristics
    TheAmalaandNyangoresriversoriginateinKenyas
    MauForestandconvergetoformtheMaraRiver
    (Map38.1).Othertributaries,theEngare,Talekand
    SandalsoowintotheMaratoformthetransboundary
    MaraRiverbasin.
    TheMaraRiverisabout400kmlonganddrainsinto
    LakeVictoriainTanzania,whichmakestheriverpart
    ofthelargerNilebasin.TheMaraRiverbasincovers
    anareaofapproximately13,750km2,

    ofwhich65%is
    locatedinKenyaand35%inTanzania.Theamountof
    annualrainfallinthebasinvariesfrom1,400mminthe
    hillsoftheMauForestto500700mminthedryplains
    ofnorth-westTanzania.
    Approximately840,000peopleliveinthebasin(2010)
    themajorityofwhomarehavesettledinruralareas.
    TheKenyanpartofthebasinishometo558,000and
    theremaining282,000inhabitantsliveintheTanzanian
    portionofthebasin.Accordingtoprojections,by2030,
    theoverallpopulationinthebasincouldalmostdouble
    toasmuchas1.35million.
    Povertyisamajorconcerninthebasin.InKenya,nearly
    halfofthebasinspopulationlivesbelowthepoverty
    line
    1
    .OntheTanzanianside,therateofpovertyis
    around40%.Ingeneral,thoselivinginthebasinearn
    theirlivingfromgrowingfoodcrops(36.1%),cashcrops
    (9.6%),livestockproduction(5.9%),shing(9.5%)and
    businessenterprises(11.4%).
    Water resources and their use
    Asaresultofinsufcientdata,thereareonlyrough
    estimatesofthewaterpotentialoftheMaraRiver.
    Thelowerestimateisapproximately475millionm3

    peryear,whichonlytakesintoaccounttheowrates
    ofitstwomainperennialtributaries,theAmalaand
    theNyangores.Ahigher,andprobablymoreaccurate
    estimatebasedondatafrommoreofthetributariesand
    agaugingstation,isaround950millionm3peryear.The
    totalannualwaterdemandintheMaraRiverbasinis
    approximately23.8millionm3peryear(2006).Irrigated
    agricultureisthemajoruserofwaterthroughoutthe
    basinfollowedbydomesticconsumptionandlivestock
    production(Table38.1).
    MAP 38.1
    MaraRiverbasin
    TABLE 38.1
    WateruseintheMaraRiverbasin(2006)
    Use Water demand (m3/year)
    Large-scale irrigation 12,323,400
    Domestic 4,820,336
    Livestock production 4,054,566
    Wildlife 1,836,711
    Mining 624,807
    Tourism 152,634
    Total 23,812,454
    KENYA
    NZANI A TAN
    Sand Sand
    Mara Mara
    M
    ara
    M
    ara
    M
    a
    r
    a
    M
    a
    r
    a
    Talek
    Talek
    A
    m
    ala
    A
    m
    ala
    N
    y
    a
    n
    g
    o
    r
    e
    s
    N
    y
    a
    n
    g
    o
    r
    e
    s
    E
    n
    g
    a
    re
    E
    n
    g
    a
    re
    Lake
    Victoria
    Musoma
    Ngoreme
    Ronda
    Thimjope
    Naro
    Sura
    Masai Mara
    National Reserve
    Serengeti
    National Park
    0 50 km 25

    City
    International boundary
    Wetlands
    Basin
    National park
    788 AFRICA CHAPTER38
    Whilewateruseissignicantlylessthanthebasins
    potential,theintra-annualvariabilityinsupplyand
    poorandoutdatedagronomicpractices,leadto
    problemsmeetingthedemand.Furthermore,the
    frequencyofwatershortagesandtheirseverityis
    likelytoincreaseinparallelwiththeexpansionof
    irrigatedlandinthebasin.Presently,51%ofthewater
    demandislinkedtoafewbigfarmsinKenya.These
    farmsproducemainlymaize,beans,gumtreesand
    wheat.
    Biodiversity, tourism and the potential
    impact of climate change
    Withinthebasin,thereareimportanthabitatsthat
    supporttheregionsvibrantbiodiversity.Among
    themostimportantofthesearetheMauForest,the
    MaraSwampandtheMaraSerengetieco-region,
    whichisaUNESCOWorldHeritageSite.TheMara
    Serengetialonecontainsover90mammalsandmore
    than450birdspecies.Therehavebeenconservation
    programmesinthebasinimplementedbytheKenyan
    andTanzaniangovernmentsaswellasregionaland
    internationalinstitutions.However,despitethese
    eforts,theconditionofthehabitatscontinuesto
    decline.Forexample,overthepastfewdecades,the
    MauForesthasbeenreducedby23%asaresultof
    forestclearingforteaplantations,farmingandtimber
    harvesting.Eventhoughtherearelawsprotectingthe
    buferzones,thecorridorofriverineforestalongthe
    MaraRiverhasbeengreatlydegradedbygrazingand
    cultivationinbothKenyaandTanzania.
    Socio-economicdemandssuchasagrowingtourism
    sectorareaddingtotheproblem.Thenumberof
    touristsvisitingtheMasaiMaraNationalReservein
    KenyaandtheSerengetiNationalParkinTanzania
    rosefromapproximately190,000inthe1990stoover
    600,000intheearly2000s.Thegrowingconcerns
    areclearlyhighlightedinthemanagementplanofthe
    MasaiMaraNationalReserve,whichstates:
    The Reserve is faced by unprecedented challenges.
    Inside the Reserve, escalating pressures from
    tourism development and growing visitor
    numbers are leading to a ... deterioration of the
    natural habitats on which the Reserves tourism
    product is based ... Outside the Reserve, there
    is growing pressure from local communities to
    use the Reserves pastures and water sources for
    livestock, because of the diminishing supplies
    of these resources in the wider ecosystem and
    deteriorating community livelihoods ...
    Alltheseissuespointtoaneedforanintegrated
    transboundarystrategicplanningapproachto
    biodiversityconservationandwaterresources
    managementinthebasin.
    Protectingtheenvironmentandecosystemsis
    essentialforensuringthesustainabledevelopment
    ofbothnations.Consequently,FloridaInternational
    UniversitywithintheframeworkoftheGlobalWater
    forSustainability(GLOWS)programmeconductedan
    environmentalowassessmentinthreepilotsitesin
    thebasin.Thestudyconcludedthatintheyearswhen
    precipitationisnormal(comparedtothelong-term
    averageofmeanannualrainfall),sufcientwater
    existstosatisfytheneedsofthehumanpopulation
    andnature.However,duringperiodsofdrought,
    especiallyintheupperandmiddlereachesofthe
    river,naturalowiswellbelowthethresholdrequired
    tomeettheestablishedreserveforenvironmental
    needs.Thismeansthatnowatercanbeallocatedfor
    otheruses(domestic,industrial,tourism,agriculture,
    etc.)anditisnecessarytoconstructreservoirsto
    meetthesedemands.Whilethestudyislimitedin
    scale,itclearlydemonstratesthevulnerabilityofboth
    thehumanandthewildlifepopulationsinthebasin.
    Climatechangecancomplicatemattersfurther.
    ScenariospredictthattheowintheUpperMara
    Rivermaydecreasesignicantlyasaresultof
    increasedambienttemperatureandlessrainfall.This
    canhaveaseriousimpactonbothhumanlivelihoods
    andecosystems.Infact,theimportanceoftheMara
    Riveristhatitisthemainsourceofwaterforthe
    migratinganimalsoftheMaraSerengetieco-region,
    especiallyduringthedryseason.Statisticalanalysis
    ofrainfalldatarevealsthatdroughtsarelikelyto
    occureverysevenyearsinthebasin.Dependingon
    theseverityoftheconditions,20%to80%ofthe
    migratingwildebeestmaydie.Witha50%die-of
    rate,itwilltakeapproximately20yearsfortheanimal
    populationtorecover,whilewithan80%die-ofrate,
    theremaybenopopulationrecoveryatall.Such
    ecologicallydisastrousconditionswouldhavesevere
    repercussionsfortourismintheMaraRiverbasin
    aswell,whichinturnwouldafecttheKenyanand
    Tanzanianeconomies.Theclimatechangescenarios
    alsopredictanincreaseinperiodsofintenserainfall
    WWDR4 789 MARARIVERBASIN,KENYAANDTANZANIA
    TABLE 38.2
    RateofaccesstowaterresourcesintheMaraRiverbasin
    *The Mara River basin lies within the southern section of the Rift Valley Province
    Piped
    water
    (%)
    Spring/well
    (%)
    Rain
    harvesting
    (%)
    River/stream
    (%)
    Pond/dam/
    lake
    (%)
    Other
    (%)
    Kenya:
    Rift Valley Province*
    22.8 36.3 1.2 29.3 4.7 5.5
    Tanzania:
    Mara Region
    14.2 63.2 - 6.6 15.6 -
    whichwouldresultinanincreasederosionandadrop
    inwaterqualitycausedbyhighersedimentcontent
    intheriver.Thebestmanagementpracticesthatare
    proposedasapartofthePaymentforEcosystem
    Services(PES)schemes(Box38.1)includepreserving
    riparianbufers,reinforcingriverbanksbyplanting
    treesanddecreasinggrazingaspotentialremediesto
    alleviateerosionproblem.
    Water and health
    AlargepercentageofthepopulationintheMaraRiver
    basindoesnothaveaccesstoasafedrinkingwater
    supplyoradequatesanitationfacilities(Table38.2and
    Table38.3).SurveysconductedintheTransMaraand
    BometdistrictsofKenyasRiftValleyProvincerevealed
    thelackofsewerinfrastructure,withpitlatrinesbeing
    theonlyfaecaldisposalmethodavailabletothe
    population.Ingeneral,themajoritydidnothaveany
    knowledgeofbasicsanitationorhygiene.
    InBomet,approximately56%ofhouseholdsdraw
    theirdrinkingwaterfromtheMaraRiverduringthe
    dryseasonand46%ofhouseholdsareforcedtofetch
    waterfromwaterpointsthatarebetween1kmand
    5kmaway.Only36%ofhouseholdsinBometreported
    anyformofwatertreatmentpriortoconsumption.As
    aconsequenceofover-relianceonunprotectedwater
    sourcesandpoorhygienepractices,ratesofdiarrheal
    diseaseandintestinalwormsareveryhighinboth
    districts.Unfortunately,theunfavourableconditions
    describedabovearesimilarontheTanzaniansideof
    thebasin.
    Water resources management and
    regulations
    Kenyasmostrecentconstitution,adoptedinAugust
    2010,setsthefoundationforthesustainableuse
    andefcientmanagementofnaturalresources.It
    articulatestheobligationsthattheindividualand
    thestatehavetotheenvironment.Moreover,italso
    enablestheformationofaNationalLandCommission
    which,amongitsotherduties,hassupervisory
    responsibilityforlanduseplanningthroughout
    Kenya.Thenewconstitutionmandatesthe
    decentralizationofgovernment,allowingforefective
    governanceatthedistrictorbasinlevel.
    TABLE 38.3
    RateofaccesstosanitationfacilitiesintheMaraRiverbasin
    *The Mara River basin lies within the southern section of the Rift Valley Province
    Conventional
    sewerage
    (%)
    Pit latrine
    (%)
    Septic tank
    (%)
    No latrine (i.e.
    open defecation)
    (%)
    Other
    (%)
    Kenya:
    Rift Valley Province*
    3.3 73.3 2.2 20.7 0.4
    Tanzania:
    Mara Region
    1.9 77.6 - 20.3 -
    790 AFRICA CHAPTER38
    TheecosystemsintheMaraRiverbasincontributesignicantlytotheregionseconomybyprovidingvaluableserviceswith-
    outtheneedforanydirecthumanlabourorinput.PaymentforEcosystemorEnvironmentalServices(PES)isamecha-
    nismtointegratethisintrinsicwealthorproductivitywithinaneconomicsystem.
    Inprinciple,thePESmechanismwouldallowforsustainablelandusewithinthebasinwithouttheneedforoutsidefunding.
    TheMaraRiverbasinpresentsanidealscenarioforimplementingaPESschemebecauseoftheconictofinterestbetween
    thefarmersupstreamandwildlifetourismdownstream.Thisvyingforbenetscreatesanopportunityforthetransferof
    ecosystem-basedbenetstotheupstreamfarmersintheformofeconomicsupportfortheimprovementofagricultural
    practices.
    TherststeptowardsaPESmechanismwastakenin2006asapartoftheproject,TransboundaryWaterforBiodiversityand
    HumanHealthintheMaraRiverBasin.Afeasibilitystudyidentiedmarket-nancedPESasthemostappropriatemethodol-
    ogyforeconomicallyincentivizingconservationeforts.
    Thankstosurveys,analyses,andstakeholdermeetings,theprojecthasmadeconsiderableprogresstowardsthedevelopment
    andeventualimplementationofaPESmechanism.Analdocumentisexpectedin2012,whichwouldpresenttheculmina-
    tionoftheconsensus-buildingprocess.However,whilecurrentpoliciesinKenyaandTanzaniaaregenerallysupportiveofPES
    schemes,theylackanyconcreteinstrumentsintermsoflawsandregulationsforPESagreements.Thisobservationpresents
    animportantchallengefortranslatingatheoreticalPESmechanismintoafunctionalmarket-basedsystem.Althoughexisting
    legalandcontractualmechanismsinbothcountriesmayenabletheformationofabasicframeworkforaPESscheme,thein-
    troductionofsupplementalregulationsseemsnecessary.
    BOX 38.1
    Paymentforecosystemservices
    KenyaVision2030(formulatedin2007)andthe
    WaterAct(2002)constitutethemainelementsofthe
    countrysnationalwaterpolicy.KenyaVisiondenes
    thegoalsandstrategiesofthecountrybetween2007
    and2030withparticularattentiontocompensationfor
    environmentalservicesandtheprovisionofincentives
    forenvironmentalcompliance.TheWaterActallowsfor
    theestablishmentoftheWaterResourcesManagement
    Authority,whichhasamandatetomanageand
    protectriverbasins.Italsoencouragescommunitiesto
    participateinwatermanagementatthebasinleveland
    aimstoensurethatsufcientandgood-qualitywater
    isavailabletosatisfybasichumanneedsandtoprotect
    ecosystems.The1999EnvironmentManagementand
    CoordinationActandthe2009NationalLandPolicy
    alsoplayapartinwaterandbiodiversityconservation
    inKenya.
    ButTanzaniasconstitution,unlikeKenyas,does
    notexplicitlycontainprovisionsforlandandthe
    environment.However,thereareothermajornational
    legalinstrumentssuchastheTanzaniaDevelopment
    Vision2025(launchedin2000),theNationalWater
    Policy(2002),theWaterResourcesManagementAct
    (2009)andtheNationalEnvironmentalPolicy(1997).
    Alltheseunderpintheconservationofbiodiversityand
    theregulationofwaterresourcesinthecountry.
    Vision2025isTanzaniasnationaldevelopment
    blueprint.Itprojectsfastgrowthwhileefectively
    reversingcurrentadversetrendsinenvironmental
    resourcessuchasforests,sheries,biodiversityaswell
    asfreshwaterandlandresources.Universalaccessto
    safewaterisalsoapartofVision2025.TheNational
    WaterPolicypromotesdecentralizingwaterresource
    managementthroughintegratedwaterresources
    management,involvingwateruserassociationsand
    theprivatesectorindecisionmaking,ensuringthe
    sustainableuseofwaterresourcesthrougheconomic
    incentivessuchasappropriatepricingmechanisms,
    andestablishinginstitutionssuchastheNationalWater
    Board,theBasinWaterBoardsandBasinandSub-basin
    WaterCommittees.
    TheNationalEnvironmentalPolicyemphasizes
    sustainabilityandtheconservationofnaturalresources
    andallowsforeconomicinstruments(suchasPES,
    potentially)asapproachestoenvironmentalresource
    protection.TheWaterResourcesManagementActgives
    efecttothe2002NationalWaterPolicyandincludes
    WWDR4 791 MARARIVERBASIN,KENYAANDTANZANIA
    legislationrelatedtotransboundarywaterresources
    management.ThisActalsoallowsforthecreationofthe
    LakeVictoriaBasinWaterOfce,whichisresponsible
    formanagementoftheMaraRiver.
    Conclusions
    TheMaraRiverBasinisfacingthemountingchallenges
    ofwaterscarcity,pollutionandenvironmentaldegrada-
    tionasaresultofagriculturalexpansion,intensication
    ofirrigation,populationgrowthandtheincreasing
    impactoftourism.Themaincompetitionforwater
    resourcesinthebasinisbetweenirrigatedagriculture
    andtheMasaiMaraandSerengetiWildlifeareas.
    Limitedaccesstosafedrinkingwatersupplyand
    practicallytheabsenceofasanitationinfrastructure
    addtowidespreadpovertythroughaheavyburden
    ofdisease.Legislationtoaddressissuesrelatedto
    waterandothernaturalresourcesisgraduallybeing
    developedandputinplaceinbothKenyaandTanzania.
    Theirimplementationcanhelptooperationalize
    mechanismssuchasPaymentforEcosystemServices
    (PES),whichcancreatesustainablenancialsupportfor
    efortstoconserveandprotectnaturalresources.
    Unlessappropriateactionistaken,growingproblems
    willhaveadirectimpactonthelivelihoodsoflocal
    peopleaswellasonthenationaleconomiesofboth
    countries.

    Notes
    1 TheKenyanpovertylineissetatapproximatelyUS$1.50perday
    forruralpopulationsandUS$3.50perdayforurbanpopulations.

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheCase Study
    Report of the Mara River Basin in Kenya and Tanzania,
    preparedin2011bytheGlobalWaterforSustainability
    (GLOWS)Programme,FloridaInternationalUniversity,
    supportedbyUSAID(forthcoming).

    Acknowledgements MaysoonAl-Zubi
    CHAPTER 39
    Jordan
    YannArthus-Bertrand/Altitude-Paris
    Jordan:GardenscreatedinthemiddleoftheWadiRumdesert(2933'N,3539'E)
    WWDR4 793 JORDAN
    Location and general characteristics
    TheHashemiteKingdomofJordan(Jordanfrom
    hereon)islocatedintheeasternMediterraneanand
    borderedbySyriatothenorth,Iraqtothenorth-east,
    theKingdomofSaudiArabiatotheeastandsouth,
    andtheWestBankandIsraeltothewest(Map39.1).
    Jordanspopulationisaround6.3millionandithas
    asurfaceareaofapproximately90,000km2.The
    JordanRiftValley,anarrowstripofhighlands(witha
    maximumelevationof1,600mabovesealevel),the
    steppe,thedesertzoneandtheDeadSea(426m
    belowsealevelin2010)arethemostdistinctive
    topographicalfeatures.
    Climatevariessignicantlyfromoneregiontoanother.
    ThewestofJordanhasaMediterraneanclimate,
    characterizedbydryhotsummers,mildwetwinters
    andextremevariabilityinrainfallduringtheyearas
    wellasfromyeartoyear.Theclimateinthehighlandsis
    characterizedbymildsummersandcoldwinters.Aqaba
    GovernorateandtheJordanRiftValleyhaveasubtro-
    picalclimatehotinsummerandwarminwinter.The
    MAP 39.1
    JordanRiverbasin
    steppeandthesteppedesertregionshaveacontinental
    climatewithlargevariationsintemperature.
    Precipitationinthecountryisverylimitedandranges
    from30mmto600mmannually.Some93.5%ofthe
    countryhaslessthan200mmofrainfall,andonly
    0.7%ofthecountryhasannualprecipitationofmore
    than500mm.Mostoftherainfalloccursbetween
    NovemberandApril,and,ingeneral,decreases
    considerablyfromwesttoeastandfromnorthto
    south.Overall,83%ofthecountryiscomposedof
    desertanddesertsteppe.
    Water resources availability and their use
    Jordanisoneofthemostaridcountriesintheworld.
    Whiletheaverageannualrainfallisapproximately
    8.2billionm3,

    92%ofthisislostthroughevaporation.
    Totalinternalrenewablewaterresourcesareseriously
    limited.Atanestimated682millionm3/year,thecountry
    isfarbelowthewaterpovertyline.Developedsurface
    waterpotentialwasapproximately295millionm3in
    2007,andisprojectedtoreach365millionm3by2022.
    Lake
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    794 ARABSTATES CHAPTER39
    Onaverage,riversconstitute37%ofthenational
    watersupply.Jordansmostimportantsurfacewater
    resources,theJordanRiveranditsmaintributary,the
    Yarmouk,aresharedwithneighbouringcountries.The
    ZarqaRiver,thesecondmaintributaryoftheJordan
    River,owsentirelywithintheterritoryofJordan.The
    YarmoukRiverisparticularlycriticalasitaccountsfor
    almost50%ofthecountryssurfacewaterresources.
    Allocationofthesetrans-boundarywaterresources
    hasbeenoneofthemostdifcultregionalissues.
    JordanandIsraelreachedanagreementonwater
    rightsintheJordanRiverbasinintheir1994peace
    treaty.Ajointwatercommitteewasalsoformedasa
    permanentinstitutionchargedwithimplementingthe
    agreement.
    Totalinternalrenewablegroundwaterresourcesare
    approximately450millionm3/year,withasafeyield
    of275.5millionm3(FAO,n.d.).Atpresent,aquifers
    arebeingexploitedatabouttwicetheirrecharge
    rate.Inparticular,groundwaterabstractionfor
    agricultureisbeyondsustainablelimits,resultinginan
    annualgroundwaterdecitof151millionm3(2007).
    Theproblemisworsenedbythefactthatthereare
    hundredsofillegalwells.Theprotectionofaquifersis
    criticalasgroundwaterconstitutesapproximately54%
    ofthenationalwatersupply.
    Agricultureispractisedover3%ofthenational
    territory(2005),whereaspotentiallycultivatable
    landisestimatedataround10%or8,800km2(FAO,
    n.d.).Wateravailabilityandsoilqualityarethemain
    obstaclestothefurtherexpansionofagriculture.Asa
    resultofscarcity,onlyabout800km2ofland,mainly
    connedtotheJordanRiftValley,isirrigated(2006).
    Inaneforttomaximizewater-useefciency,improved
    irrigationsystemsarebeingintroduced.Infact,60%of
    theirrigationintheJordanRiftValley,andabout85%
    inthehighlandsisthroughmicro-irrigation.Evenso,
    theagriculturalsectorstillusesabout574millionm3
    ofwater,whichcorrespondsto60%ofannualwater
    useinJordan(2009).Inspiteofconsuminglarge
    quantitiesofwater,agriculturecontributesjust3%of
    Jordansgrossdomesticproduct(GDP).Municipalwater
    demandaccountsforabout33%ofoverallconsumption
    (approximately315millionm3).Thisdemandismet
    largelyfromaquifers.Waterusebyindustryand
    forlivestockproductionisrelativelyinsignicantat
    39millionm3and7.5millionm3respectively.While
    tourismaccountsforapproximately1%ofwateruse,the
    contributionofthesectortoGDPwas10.6%in2009
    (Kreishan,2010).
    Inadditiontosurfacewaterandgroundwater,other
    sources,suchasfossilwater,treatedwastewater
    (110millionm3in2009)andbrackishwater,arealso
    usedinJordan.Overall,revenuecollectionsystemsare
    weakandmorethan42%ofthewaterdeliveredtothe
    municipalwatersupplysystemcannotbeaccounted
    for.Inaddition,tarifsarelowanddonotcovertotal
    operationandmaintenancecosts.
    Asignicantincreaseinpopulationhasledtoa
    sharpdecreaseinper-capitawateravailability,which
    droppedfrom3,600m3in1946to145m3in2008.
    Itisprojectedthatby2022,thepopulationmay
    exceed7.8million,andtotalwaterdemandmayreach
    1,673millionm3.Ifcurrentandplannedprojectsare
    fullyimplemented,includingtheDisiwaterconveyance
    plan,theRedSea-DeadSeacanalproject,andplans
    toincreasetheuseoftreatedwastewater,Jordan's
    currentwaterdecitof659millionm
    3
    (2009)couldbe
    reducedto457millionm
    3
    by2022.
    Inordertocopewithwaterscarcity,28damswith
    atotalstoragecapacityof368millionm3were
    constructedbetween1950and2008.Atthesame
    time,locationswereidentiedforanumberof
    reservoirsthatwouldgivethepotentialtoadd
    444millionm3toJordanswaterstoragecapacity.
    Climate change and its likely impact
    WaterisascarceresourceinJordan,andahigh
    populationgrowthrateofapproximately2.3%peryear
    isleadingtogrowingdemandsfrombothagriculture
    andthemunicipalities.
    Analysesofclimatechangescenariosindicatethat
    Jordanwillexperiencemorefrequentdroughtsduring
    thetwenty-rstcenturyasaconsequenceofyear-
    roundincreasesintemperaturethatmayreachashigh
    as3C(0.5C)inwinterand4.5C(1C)insummer
    bytheendofthecentury.Thesameclimatechange
    simulationsshowlittleornochangeinprecipitationto
    ofsetthesebigincreasesintemperature.Inaddition
    tothis,runofisexpectedtodecreaseovermostofthe
    country,exceptfortheregionsouthoftheDeadSea
    (RSCN,2010).Thiscouldhaveaseriousimpactonwater
    andfoodsecurity.Infact,theresultsofavulnerability
    assessmentshowedthatclimatechangecouldhavea
    signicantimpactonagriculture,particularlyonwheat
    andbarleyproduction,whichdependheavilyonrainfall.
    Theexpansionofaridrangelandswithdecreased
    vegetationwillhaveimplicationsforgrazing,aswell.
    Thiswillafectlivestockproduction,andwillhavea
    WWDR4 795 JORDAN
    consequentnegativeimpactonthedietandincomeof
    poorfarminghouseholds.
    Water and settlements, water reuse
    Overthepast60yearsJordanhasbecomehighly
    urbanized.Thepercentageofthepopulationlivingin
    citiesincreasedfrom39.6%in1952to78%in2009
    (UNICEF,n.d.).Thisincreaseislargelytheresultof
    internalmigration,combinedwithaninuxofrefugees
    andmigrants,mainlyfromPalestineandIraq.Outof
    Jordanstwelvegovernorates,65%ofthepopulation
    livesinAmman,ZarqaandIrbid.Intermsofits
    regions,91%ofthepopulationliveseitherinthenorth
    (Irbid,Jerash,AjlumandMafraq)orincentralJordan
    (Amman,Zarqa,BalqaandMadaba).
    DuringtheInternationalDrinkingWaterSupplyand
    SanitationDecade(19811990),Jordan'sgovernment
    carriedoutanumberofsignicantwastewater
    managementprojects.Thesewereprimarilyrelated
    totheimprovementofsanitation.Thishasraisedthe
    levelofsanitationservices,improvedpublichealth,
    andstrengthenedpollutioncontrolofsurfacewater
    andgroundwaterintheareasservedbywastewater
    facilities.AccordingtotheWHO/UNICEFJoint
    MonitoringReport(WHO/UNICEF,2010),96%of
    thepopulationhadaccesstoasafewatersupply,
    and98%hadaccesstoimprovedsanitationin2008.
    Approximately64%ofthepopulationisconnected
    toaseweragenetworkthatcollectswastewater
    fortreatmentandre-use.In2008,approximately
    100millionm3

    ofefuentwasprocessedintreatment
    plants.Asaresultoflowwateravailability,treated
    wastewaterrepresentsasignicantportionoftheriver
    owinvariouspartsofthecountry.
    Seweragesystemsforcollectingagreaterquantity
    ofwastewaterareexpandinginparallelwith
    populationgrowthandincreasedwaterconsumption.
    Itisestimatedthatby2022,approximately
    250millionm3ofwastewaterwillbegenerated.
    Withpropertreatment,thisrepresentsanimportant
    sourceofwaterthatcanbeusedforpurposesother
    thanfordrinking.
    Water quality, environment and ecosystems
    Thequalityofsurfacewaterandgroundwaterhas
    deterioratedsignicantlybecauseofpollution.Thisis
    mostnotablytheresultofoveruseofagrochemicals,
    over-pumpingofaquifers,seepagefromlandllsites
    andseptictanks,improperdisposalofdangerous
    chemicals,anddemographicpressure.Becauseof
    thediminishingper-capitawatersupplyandquality
    issues,wastewaterreusehasbeenanefective
    methodofreclaimingapercentageofscarcewater
    sources.Sincetheearly1980s,thegeneralapproach
    hasbeentotreatthewastewaterandtheneither
    dischargeitintotheenvironmentwhereitmixes
    withfreshwaterowsandisindirectlyreused
    downstreamortousetheresultingefuent
    toirrigaterestricted,relativelylow-valuecrops
    (USAID,n.d.).However,theincreasingdominanceof
    efuentinthewaterbalance,andtheoverloading
    ofwastewatertreatmentplants,hasraisedconcerns
    aboutthehealthrisksandenvironmentalhazards
    associatedwithwastewaterreuse.Tominimizesuch
    risksandtheirimplications,efuentqualitystandards
    weresetin1995andrevisedin2003(MEDAWARE,
    2005),andmostwastewatertreatmentplantshave
    beenupgradedtomeetthesestandards.However,
    thereisstillaconstantneedtomonitorthetreatment
    plantsandimprovetheircapacity.
    Becauseofitsaridclimatethereareonlyafewlarge
    naturalwetlandsinJordan,thebestknownbeing
    AzraqOasisintheeasterndesert.Thislargedesert
    oasis,whichformerlycoveredsome120km2,has
    diminishedsignicantlyasaresultofover-exploitation
    ofgroundwaterandtheconstructionofdamsonthe
    majorwadis.Similarly,theseasonalmarshesintheAl
    Jafrareaarealsodiminishingbecauseofagricultural
    activities.Consequently,manyaquaticspeciesare
    endangeredinJordan(Budieri,1995).Deforestationand
    deserticationareotherimportantenvironmentalissues
    thatrequireattention.Toraiseawarenessaboutwater
    useandenvironmentaldegradation,newliteratureis
    beingintroducedintotheschoolcurriculum(HKJ,n.d.).
    Intermsoflegislation,theEnvironmentProtectionLaw
    No.52(2006)andtheNationalEnvironmentalStrategy
    (1992)formthemainpillarsofenvironmentalprotection
    inthecountry.Asanovelapproach,eco-tourismhas
    alsobeenintroducedinJordantodemonstratethat
    localdevelopmentandefortsforconservationof
    naturecangohand-in-hand(Box39.1).
    Water resources management and the
    national strategy
    JordansNationalWaterStrategyisasetofguidelines
    thatdenethecountrysvisionupto2022.TheStrategy
    aimstoensurethesustainabilityofwaterresources
    bybalancingsupplyanddemandthroughimproved
    waterresourcesmanagement.Theover-archingpriority
    796 ARABSTATES CHAPTER39
    Thedevelopmentoftheeco-tourismsectorisbeingspearheadedbyalong-establishednon-governmentalorganization,
    theRoyalSocietyfortheConservationofNature(RSCN).TheRSCNisentrustedbythegovernmentwiththeprotectionand
    managementofJordansspecialecosystems.Forseveraldecades,theRSCNmanageditsprotectedareasasisolated,fenced
    sanctuariesthatwereguardedfromthegeneralpublicandhadlittleinvolvementfromlocalcommunities.
    Thisallchangedin1992withtheRioSummitandtheBiodiversityConvention.AsasignatorytotheConvention,Jordanwas
    therstcountryintheMiddleEasttobeawardedamulti-milliondollarpilotprojectundertheGlobalEnvironmentFacility
    (GEF).Theprojectwastodeveloparegionalmodelofintegratedconservationanddevelopment.ItwasfocusedontheDana
    NatureReserveinsouthernJordan,wherethecreationoftheprotectedareain1994waslinkedtothesocio-economicde-
    velopmentofthelocalcommunity.Thispioneeringinitiativeusheredinanewerainconservationthinking,whichtheRSCN
    continuestoleadtoday.
    ThenumberoftouriststoRSCNsitesexceeded137,000in2010,generatingapproximatelyUS$1.7millioninrevenue.Inthe
    sameyear,over16,000peoplefrompoorruralcommunitiesweresupportedbythistourismfornatureconservationscheme.
    Thisrevenuestreamalsocoveredover50%of2010sconservationcosts.
    Source: From Aziz and Szivas (2011)
    BOX 39.1
    Anewerainconservationalthinking
    oftheNationalWaterStrategyistoachievenational
    watersecurityandtoservetheoveralldevelopment
    objectivessetoutintheStrategy(HKJ,n.d.).Priority
    isgiventothefurtherdevelopmentoflandandwater
    resourcesintheJordanRiftValley,whichisthefood
    basketofthecountry.Thestrategyrecognizesthe
    criticalproblemoftheexcessiveuseofaquifers,and
    highlightstheneedforlimitingwaterabstraction
    tolevelsthataresustainableoverthelongterm.
    Controlling,andevenreducing,waterconsumptioninall
    sectorsisalsooneofthemainpillarsofthestrategy.
    Inthiscontext,farmerswateruserassociationsplaya
    keyroleinprotectingwaterresourcesfrompollution,
    increasingtheefciencyoftheirrigationinfrastructure,
    andminimizingoperationandmaintenancecosts
    allofwhicharepartoftheNationalWaterStrategy.
    Asaspecicresponsetotheover-consumptionof
    groundwaterresources,theHighlandWaterForum
    wascreatedin2010withtheaimofachievingthe
    sustainablemanagementofaquifersinthehighlands.
    Moreover,asanoverarchingtargettheForum
    promotesstakeholderdialoguefocusingonsustainable
    groundwatermanagementinJordan.
    BecauseJordansharesallofitssurfacewater
    resourceswithripariancountries,pursuingbilateral
    andmultilateralcooperationwithneighbouringstates,
    andadvocatingregionalcooperationareamongthe
    issuesthatarehighlightedinthewaterstrategy.
    Anumberofpolicypapershavebeendrawnup
    withintheframeworkoftheNationalWaterStrategy.
    Theseidentifythemainthreadsofwaterresources
    management.ThefourpolicypapersaretheWater
    UtilityPolicy,IrrigationWaterPolicy,Groundwater
    ManagementPolicy,andWastewaterManagement
    Policy.TheNationalWaterStrategyandthefourpolicy
    papers,coupledwithacomprehensiveinvestment
    programme,chartaroadmapforsustainable
    development(HKJ,n.d.).
    Until1987,waterresourcesweremanagedbytwo
    independentauthorities,theWaterAuthorityof
    Jordanforwatersupplyandsewerage,andtheJordan
    ValleyAuthorityforirrigationanddevelopmentinthe
    JordanRiftValley.In1987,thetwoauthoritieswere
    broughttogetherundertheumbrellaoftheMinistryof
    WaterandIrrigation.TheNationalWaterStrategysets
    outthemissionandkeyprioritiesoftheMinistry.
    Conclusions
    Jordanisamongthepoorestcountriesintheworld
    intermsofwaterresources.Consequently,priorityis
    giventostructuralinvestmentswhichhelptodevelop
    moreofitswaterpotential.However,increasing
    demandandagrowingpopulationhavepushedwater
    consumptionbeyondsustainablelimitsandhave
    ledtoover-useofgroundwaterresources.Climate
    changeprojectionspointtothepossibilityofa
    furtherreductioninwateravailability.Asthingsstand,
    WWDR4 797 JORDAN
    adequatelyaddressingthechallengeofanincreasing
    waterdecitrequiresbothsupply-sideanddemand-
    sidemeasures,suchasbetterwatermanagement,
    enhancingwateruseefciency,awarenessraising
    tochangewaterconsumptionpatterns,redenition
    ofwaterallocationpriorities(suchaslimitingor
    reducingagriculturalwateruse),andthedevelopment
    oftechnologiesforuseofnon-conventionalwater
    resources(i.e.waste-waterrecycling).Reversingthe
    trendofwater-qualitydegradationisimportantto
    protectpublichealth,whileensuringthesustainability
    ofecosystemsandprotectingscarcewaterresources.
    TheNationalWaterStrategyisamajorpolicy
    documentanditsprioritiesareundoubtedlythe
    correctones.However,achievementofitsgoalswill
    requirethecontinuationofinstitutionalchangesto
    allowanintegratedapproachtowatermanagement
    issues.

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheJordan Case
    Study Report,preparedin2011bytheUNESCOJordan
    Ofce(unpublished).
    Azis,H.andSzivas,E.2011.Tourism. Arab Environment:
    Green Economy.FourthannualreportoftheArabForum
    forEnvironmentandDevelopment.Beirut,AFED.http://
    afedonline.org/Report2011/PDF/En/chapter%208%20
    tourismC&C.pdf
    Budieri,A.1995.Introduction.A Directory of Wetlands in The
    Middle East.Scott,D.A.Gland,Switzerland/Slimbridge,
    UK,IUCN/IWRB.http://ramsar.wetlands.org/Portals/15/
    JORDAN.pdf
    FAO(FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnited
    Nations).n.d.Irrigation in the Middle East Region in
    Figures: AQUASTAT Survey 2008.Rome,FAO.www.
    fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries_regions/jordan/
    jordan_cp.pdf
    HKJ(TheHashemiteKingdomofJordan).n.d.Jordans
    Water Shortage.Amman,TheHashemiteKingdomof
    Jordan.http://www.kinghussein.gov.jo/geo_env4.html
    (Accessed21October2011.)
    Kreishan,F.M.M.2010.Tourismandeconomicgrowth:
    thecaseofJordan.European Journal of Social Sciences,
    Vol.15,No.2,pp.22934.http://www.eurojournals.com/
    ejss_15_2_08.pdf
    MEDAWARE(EuropeanCommissionEuro-Mediterranean
    Partnership).2005.Developmentoftoolsandguidelines
    forthepromotionofsustainableurbanwastewater
    treatmentandreuseinagriculturalproductioninthe
    Mediterraneancountries:Task5:technicalguidelineson
    wastewaterutilisationBrussels,EuropeanCommission.
    http://www.uest.gr/medaware/reports/Task5_revised.doc
    RSCN(RoyalSocietyfortheConservationofNature).2010.
    Climate Change Efects on Jordans Vegetation Cover,
    Fire Risk and Runof Changes. http://rscn.org.jo/orgsite/
    Portals/0/Impacts_of_Future_Climate_Change_on_
    Vegetation,re_and_runof.pdf(Accessed21October
    2011).
    UNICEF(UnitedNationsChildrensFund).n.d.Country
    informationwebsite,Jordan.http://www.unicef.org/
    infobycountry/jordan_statistics.html(Accessed20October
    2011.)
    USAID(TheUnitedStatesAgencyforInternational
    Development).n.d.Wastewater Reuse in Jordan: A
    USAID Initiative.http://jordan.usaid.gov/upload/features/
    Jordan%20Wastewater%20Reuse%20Case%20Study.doc
    (Accessed23October2011.)
    WHO/UNICEF(WorldHealthOrganization/UnitedNations
    ChildrensFund).2010.Progress on Sanitation and Drinking
    Water: 2010 Update.Geneva,WHO/UNICEF.

    Acknowledgements AbdelhamidBenabdelfadel,YoussefFilali-Meknassi
    CHAPTER 40
    Morocco
    YannArthus-Bertrand/Altitude-Paris
    Morocco:DadesGorges(3126'N,601'W)
    WWDR4 799 MOROCCO
    Location and general characteristics
    TheKingdomofMorocco(Moroccohereafter)islocated
    atthenorth-westendoftheAfricancontinent.Itcovers
    anareaof710,850km2

    andhas31.5millioninhabitants
    (2009).ItisborderedbytheMediterraneanSeatothe
    north,theAtlanticOceantothewest,Algeriatothe
    eastandMauritaniatothesouth.
    Moroccosmountainousterritoryhasanaverage
    elevationof800m.ThehighestpointinNorthAfrica
    (4,167mabovesealevel)isfoundintheHighAtlas
    Mountainsinthecentreofthecountry.Thelong
    coastline,alluviallowlands,mountainchains,high
    plateausandtheSaharadesertmakeforawide
    varietyoflandscape.
    MostofnorthernandcentralMoroccohasa
    Mediterraneanclimatewithcoldwintersandhot,dry
    summers.Thesouthernpartofthecountryhassemi-
    aridtodesertclimate.Therefore,therainfallregime
    ishighlyvariablebothspatiallyandtemporally.
    Annualprecipitationrangesfrom2,000mminthe
    northto100mmorlessinthesouth-eastalong
    theSahara.TheRiverDraa,whichrisesintheAtlas
    Mountains,isthelongestriverinthecountryandruns
    forapproximately1,100kmbeforedrainingintothe
    AtlanticOceanatTan-Tan.Otherimportantriversare
    theSebouandtheMoulouya.
    Water resources and their use
    Moroccosriversarefedbyrainfallandtheyare
    torrentialinnature.OtherthantheMoulouyainthe
    northwhichdischargesintoMediterraneanSea,almost
    allthemajorriversowtotheAtlanticordisappearin
    theSahara.Theannualwaterresourcespotentialofthe
    countryisapproximately22billionm3,

    ofwhich82%
    correspondstosurfacewaterand18%togroundwater.
    Wateravailabilitypercapitaisaround700m3which
    putsthecountryintothewaterscarcecategory.
    Surfacewaterresourcesthroughoutthecountryare
    characterizedbyaverylargeannualandinter-annual
    variabilitywhichismarkedbyalternatingwetanddry
    periods,interspersedwithexceptionallywetanddry
    years.Thismeansthatreservoirsneedtobebuiltto
    regulateriverowandtostorewaterfordryseasons.
    Currently,thereare130largedamswithatotal
    capacityof17billionm3.
    Thereisalsoacleardisparityintermsofdistribution
    ofsurfacewaterresources.Afewbasinsinthenorth
    (theSebou,theLoukkos,andtheTangrois,for
    example)whichcovermerely7.3%ofthecountryhave
    approximatelyhalfofitssurfacewaterresources.There
    aremanyaquifersinMoroccowithgoodwaterquality.
    However,66outof103aquiferstestedareconsidered
    partiallyorfullybrackish.Overall,brackishwater
    potentialisestimatedatabout570millionm3peryear.
    AgricultureisoneofthemainpillarsofMoroccos
    economy.Theagriculturalsectorgenerates
    approximately20%ofnationalgrossdomesticproduct
    (GDP)andcreatesemploymentforupto40%ofthe
    population(80%inruralareas).Cereals(wheat,barley
    andmaize),sugarbeet,sugarcane,citrusfruit,grapes
    andlivestockarethemainagriculturalproducts.
    Approximately95,000km2oflandiscultivated
    including15,000km2ofirrigatedland.Groundwater
    isofparamountimportancetoagricultureas75%
    ofirrigationwaterisabstractedfromwells.While
    therenewablegroundwatercapacityisestimatedat
    3.6billionm3/year,actualconsumptionhassurpassed
    thesustainablelimitsandreachedapproximately
    5billionm3.
    Othersourcesofincomearetourismandsheries.In
    2009,8milliontouristsvisitedMoroccogenerating
    approximatelyUS$6billionofincome.Whiletourism
    constitutesanincreasinglyimportantsectorforthe
    nationaleconomy,theconsumptionofwaterby
    touristicactivitiesisalsogrowing.
    Overall,waterconsumptioninMoroccohasrisen
    beyondthelevelofthecurrentlydevelopedrenewable
    waterresourcespotential.In2008,annualwater
    demandwas13.5billionm3.Ofthis,2billionm3came
    fromnon-renewablegroundwaterresources.Asaresult
    ofover-exploitationcoupledwithchangesinclimate,
    thewaterlevelinmanyaquifersdroppedby20mto
    60m.Theagriculturalsectorisbyfarthelargestuserof
    water,accountingfor90%ofdemand.Thisisfollowed
    bymunicipalneeds,whichconstitutejust8%.By2030,
    thewaterdecit(thatistheuseofnon-renewable
    sources)isexpectedtoreach5billionm3.
    Climate change and disasters
    Statisticalanalysisofhydrometeorologicaldatashows
    thatrainfallincreasesinOctoberandNovemberand
    decreasesinspring.Whilewinterrainfallseemsto
    bedeclining,thiswasnotstatisticallysignicant.An
    analysisofvariationsintemperaturebetween1960
    and2000revealedanincreaseofupto1.4Cinthe
    south-eastandintheMideltregionofcentralMorocco,
    800 ARABSTATES CHAPTER40
    butthewarmingtrendinthenorthwaslesssignicant.
    Atemperatureincreaseof1Corhigherwasrecorded
    overtwo-thirdsofthecountryinsummer;andasimilar
    warmingtrendwasobservedinwintertemperatures.
    Climateobservationsalsoshowthatthesemi-arid
    zonehasbeenprogressingnorthwardsoverthepast
    fewdecades.Aworryingtrendisthatwaterresources
    availabilityhasdecreasedby16%since1981(Figure40.1).
    Estimatesofpossibleclimatechangeimpactson
    waterresourcesindicateanaveragedecreaseinwater
    resourcesintheorderof10%to15%by2050.
    Floodanddroughthavealsobecomemore
    pronounced.Inthepast35years,Moroccohasfaced
    morethan20periodsofdroughttheworstinrecent
    historywithsomelastingveyearsormore.Floods
    havealsohadasocio-economicimpactonsociety
    thatisstrongerthanbefore.Thisisnotonlybecause
    oftheindividualoodstendtobeworse,butalso
    becauseofpopulationgrowth,urbandevelopment,
    andexpandingagricultural,industrialandtourism
    activitiesinvulnerableareas.Therecordrainfallof
    2,685mmatJbelOutkaandtheexceptionaloods
    intheOuerghaRiverbasin(maximumdischarge
    of7000m3/s),areonlyafewexamplesofextreme
    eventsthattookplacebetween2008and2011.
    Frequentoodsanddroughtshavealsoledto
    increasedlanderosion.
    AsapartoftheUnitedNationsFrameworkConvention
    onClimateChange(UNFCCC),Moroccoformulatedits
    rstnationalcommunicationin2001,anditssecond
    in2009.Thesecommunicationsprovideddetailson
    thenationalinventoryofgreenhousegasemissions
    andmitigationoptionsincludingtheactionplan.Itis
    estimatedthatby2030,theannualtotalmitigation
    potentialofthesemeasureswillbeequivalentto
    52.9milliontonnesofCO2.
    In2009,theNationalPlantoFightAgainstGlobal
    Warming(LePlanNationaldeLutteContrele
    RchaufementClimatique)wasintroduced.ThePlan
    comprisesmitigationandadaptationmeasuresand
    identiesanumberofpriorityareasforaction,including
    waterresources,agriculture,forestry,desertication,
    sheries,coastallanduse,healthandtourism.
    Thenationalwaterstrategyincludesanactionplan
    toreducevulnerabilitytowater-relatednatural
    hazardsandadaptationtoclimatechange.The
    measurescoveredintheplanincludeimproving
    weatherforecasting,thedevelopmentofwarning
    systemsinmajorbasinsandsitesvulnerableto
    ooding,theintegrationofoodriskplansforland
    use,urbanplanningandwatershedmanagement,
    andthedevelopmentofnancialmechanismssuch
    asinsuranceandnaturaldisasterfunds.
    FIGURE 40.1
    Fluctuationinwaterresourcesavailabilitybetween1945and2010
    0
    5
    10
    15
    20
    25
    30
    35
    40
    45
    50
    1
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    W
    a
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    r

    r
    e
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    o
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    e
    s

    a
    v
    a
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    a
    b
    i
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    y

    (
    i
    n

    b
    i
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    l
    i
    o
    n

    m
    3
    )
    WWDR4 801 MOROCCO
    Water resources management and
    institutional aspects
    Sincethe1960s,theNationalWaterPolicyinMorocco
    hasbeenorientedtowardsthedevelopmentofwater
    resources.Thishasbeendonethroughconstructing
    themajorwaterinfrastructureprojectssuchas
    largereservoirsandwatertransferschemesthat
    ensurethecontinuityofthewatersupplythatthe
    countryrelieson.Increasingdemandnecessitated
    animprovementinthewayscarcewaterresources
    werebeingmanaged.WaterLaw10-95(enactedin
    1995)representsthelegalbasisforaforward-looking
    waterpolicy,whichtakesintoaccountbothsupply-
    relatedanddemand-relatedissues.Notably,itdenes
    waterasapublicpropertyandcallsforanintegrated,
    participatoryanddecentralizedwaterresources
    managementmechanismthroughtheestablishmentof
    nineriverbasinagencies.TheWaterLawrequiresthe
    preparationofnationalwatermanagementplansand
    riverbasinwatermanagementplans.Italsoaddresses
    theissueofcostrecoverythroughwaterabstraction
    charges(user-pays),andintroducesawaterpollution
    tax(polluter-pays).
    Becausegroundwaterresourcesaresoimportant,the
    protectionofaquifersisanimportantelementofthe
    WaterLaw.Tothisend,severalmeasuresarebeing
    planned,includingpricingasaninstrument;setting
    protectedzoneswheregroundwaterabstractionis
    bannedorlimited;imposingstrictproceduresfor
    grantingdrillingpermits;increasinghuman,nancial
    andinstitutionalcapacitytobeabletobetterenforce
    therulesandcontrolmechanisms;andimproved
    monitoringofgroundwateravailabilityandutilization.
    Promotingscienticresearchandthearticial
    rechargeofaquifersarealsoamongtheissuesthatare
    underconsideration.
    Forbettermedium-termandlong-termplanning,
    theNationalWaterPlanwasestablishedtointegrate
    thevariousregionalplansinordertodevelopa
    visionofintegratedwaterresourcesmanagement.
    ThePlanhastwooverarchingtargets:developinga
    nationalstrategybasedonthe1995WaterLaw,and
    formulatingandadoptingspecicactionplansand
    investmentprogrammes.
    TheWaterResourcesDivisionoftheMinistryof
    Energy,Mines,WaterandEnvironment(delEnergie,
    desMines,delEauetdelEnvironnementSEEE)
    istheleadgovernmentdepartmentresponsiblefor
    planningandimplementingthenationalpolicyon
    thedevelopment,managementandpreservationof
    waterresources.TheDivisionisalsochargedwiththe
    protectionoftheenvironment,andoverseesthework
    ofthenineriverbasinagencies.Thenationalbureau
    forelectricity(OfceNationaldelElectricit)and
    thenationalofcefordrinkingwater(OfceNational
    delEauPotable)bothcomeundertheauspicesof
    thesameministry.TheSupremeCouncilforWater
    andClimate(ConseilSuprieurdelEauetduClimat)
    formulatesthegeneralguidelinesofnationalpolicyon
    waterandclimate.
    Signicantprogresshasbeenmadeonthe
    implementationoftheWaterLaw.However,further
    improvementoftheregulatoryandinstitutional
    framework,includingtherevisionofcertainprovisions
    oftheWaterLaw(suchaswastewaterdischargeat
    sea,desalination,recyclingofwastewaterandthe
    protectionofwetlands)isanticipated.Establishinga
    legalframeworkthataimsforamorerationalsystemof
    abstractionchargesandenforcementofwaterpolicyis
    equallycriticalespeciallywithrespecttocontrolling
    theallocationofwaterandrestrictingitsuse.
    Toaddresscurrentandimminentchallenges,anew
    nationalwaterstrategywaslaunchedin2009to
    strengthenexistingpolicies.Itsmaintenetsarewater
    demandmanagementandbettervaluation;further
    developmentofwaterresourcesandanimprovement
    inthewaytheyaremanaged;thepreservationand
    protectionofwaterresourcesandtheenvironment;the
    mitigationofrisksandareductioninthevulnerability
    towater-relatedhazards;regulatoryandinstitutional
    reforms;andthemodernizationofinformationsystems
    andcapacityimprovement.
    The protection of the environment
    and ecosystems
    Moroccohasmanywetlandsthatarelocatedmainlyin
    themountainsandalongthecoast.Studiesconducted
    locallyandnationallyonecosystemsandbiodiversity
    identied160sitesofecologicalandbiological
    signicanceincluding24internationallyrecognized
    Ramsarsites.Moroccoswetlandsarehometomany
    speciesofamphibians,reptilesandmammals,and
    theyhaveaglobalimportanceaspassagewaysfor
    migratorybirds.Unfortunately,theecosystemsare
    underanincreasingthreatcausedbythedegradation
    ofwaterquality,asaresultofdomestic,agricultural,
    andindustrialpollutionaswellasprolongedand
    802 ARABSTATES CHAPTER40
    recurrentdroughts.Tolimitandreducesuchthreats,a
    numberofstrategicplanshavebeendevelopedthe
    NationalStrategyforSustainableDevelopment,the
    NationalStrategyfortheConservationandSustainable
    UseofBiodiversity,theNationalActionPlanforthe
    Environment,theNationalStrategyonWater,the
    MasterPlanforIntegratedManagementofWater
    ResourcesandtheDevelopmentStrategyforMountain
    Areas.
    Pollutionnotablydomesticandagriculturalpollution
    and,toalesserextent,industrialandsolidwaste
    isamajorconcerninMorocco.In2011,nearly
    700millionm3

    ofwastewaterfromsettlementswas
    dischargedintonaturewithouttreatment.Agricultural
    pollutionhascausedelevatednitrateconcentration
    inwaterbodies,notablyaquifers.Becauseofthis,
    protectingthequalityofwaterresourcesisastrategic
    priority,whichisstrengthenedthroughintroductionof
    variousprogrammessuchastheNationalSanitation
    andWastewaterTreatmentProgramme,theNational
    ProgrammeforRuralSanitation,theNational
    ProgrammeforPreventionAgainstIndustrialPollution,
    andanumberofotherprogrammes.
    Water and health
    Some57%ofMoroccospopulationliveinurban
    areaswhere98%haveaccesstosafewater(WHO/
    UNICEF,2010).Inruralareastoo,thecoveragehas
    beenincreasingsubstantiallyfrom14%in1994toover
    83%in2010.However,merely25%ofruraldwellers
    enjoypipedwaterathome.Coverageofthesewerage
    systemexceeds70%nationwide,butonly52%of
    ruraldwellershaveaccesstoimprovedsanitation.As
    aresult,diarrhoeaandothergastrointestinaldiseases
    continuetobeacauseofmorbidityandmortality
    especiallyamongruralchildreninthelowestincome
    groups,andparticularlyduringthesummerseason
    (MinistredelaSante,2005).
    Conclusions
    Moroccoscomplexclimateandhydrologymeanthat
    efcientwaterresourcesmanagementisvital.Many
    importantwaterresourcesdevelopmentprojects,
    includingtheconstructionoflargedamsandwater
    transferprojects,havebeenimplementedtomeet
    thedemandthatisnecessaryforthecountryssocio-
    economicdevelopment.Thisisfurtherbackedbylong-
    termnationalplanningactivitiesthatwereinitiated
    in1980s,andregulatoryandinstitutionaladvances
    (forexample,Law10-95)thatfocusonintegrated,
    participativeanddecentralizedwaterresources
    management.However,thescarcityofwaterresources
    isbeingexacerbatedbyclimatechangeandtheover-
    exploitationofaquifers.Thelowvalueattributedto
    water,particularlyinagriculture,andthedeterioration
    ofwaterqualityareimportantproblemsthatremainto
    betackled.Thenewwaterstrategylaunchedin2009
    toreinforcecriticalaspectsofwaterpolicyisintended
    toaddresscurrentandimminentchallenges.

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheMorocco
    Case Study Reportpreparedin2011byAbdelhamid
    Benabdelfadel,ChiefoftheDivisionofWater
    Resources,SecretariatofStatewithintheMinistryof
    Energy,Mines,WaterandtheEnvironment,incharge
    ofWaterandtheEnvironment(unpublished).
    MinistredelaSante,Morocco.2005.Politiquedesantde
    lenfantauMaroc:Analysedelasituation.Rabat,Ministryof
    Health.http://www.emro.who.int/cah/pdf/chp_mor_05.pdf
    WHO/UNICEF(WorldHealthOrganization/UnitedNations
    ChildrensFund)JointMonitoringProgrammefor
    WaterandSanitation.2010.Progress on Sanitation and
    Drinking Water, 2010 Update. Geneva/NewYork,WHO/
    UNICEF.http://www.wssinfo.org/leadmin/user_upload/
    resources/1278061137-JMP_report_2010_en.pdf

    Acknowledgements MarcLeblanc,AlbertvanDijk,
    SarahTweed,BertrandTimbal.
    CHAPTER 41
    MurrayDarling basin, Australia
    Shutterstock/PhillipMinnis
    804 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC CHAPTER41
    Location and general characteristics
    TheMurrayDarlingbasinliesinsouth-eastern
    AustraliaandisformedbytheMurrayRiver(2,530km)
    anditsthreemaintributaries:theDarling(2,750km),
    theLachlan(1,450km)andtheMurrumbidgee
    (1,700km)(Map41.1).Coveringmorethanamillion
    km2,orapproximately14%ofthecontinent,the
    MurrayDarlingbasinspansmostofNewSouthWales,
    Victoria,partsofthestatesofQueenslandandSouth
    Australia,andtheAustralianCapitalTerritorywhich
    includesthecountryscapital,Canberra.Thebasinis
    hometoapproximately2millionpeople.
    Thetopographyofthebasinisdominatedbyvast
    plains,boundedtotheeastandsouthbytheGreat
    DividingRange,Australiasmostsubstantialmountain
    range,whichreachesamaximumelevationof2,228m
    abovesealevel.
    Thebasinhasavarietyofclimaticconditionsand
    diverselandscapesrangingfromthesub-tropical
    farnorthtothecool,humiduplandstotheeast,the
    temperatesouth-eastandthehot,semi-aridandarid
    westernplains,whichaccountformorethantwo-thirds
    ofthebasin.Rainfallissummer-dominatedinthenorth
    andwinterdominatedinthesouth.
    Water resources availability
    Approximately86%ofthewatercurrentlyusedinthe
    basinissurfacewater,withgroundwaterprovidingthe
    rest.Wateravailabilityvariesgreatlyacrossthebasin
    andalmost80%ofthevastcatchmentareacontributes
    littleornowatertotherivers.Themainrun-ofcomes
    fromthesouthernandeasternboundariesofthe
    basin.Averageannualwaterconsumptioninthebasin
    isapproximately11billionm3,

    whichequatesto48%
    oftheannualsurfacewaterpotentialofthebasin.
    Currently,84%ofthewaterisusedforagriculture
    and3%isusedbytheMDBstownsandcities.The
    remainderislostduringthestorageandtransferof
    irrigationwater(Table41.1).
    Tosatisfyincreasesinwaterdemandduringthe
    secondhalfofthetwentiethcentury,manystructural
    workswerebuiltacrossthebasin.Thetotalwater
    storagecapacityinreservoirsrosefrom2km3inthe
    1930stoapproximately35km3in2007.Thislatest
    gurecorrespondstoabout150%oftheaverage
    annualwateravailabilityinthebasin.Surfacewater
    useinthebasingrewwiththeincreaseinpublicand
    privatestoragecapacityuptothemid-1990s,when
    theMurrayDarlingBasinMinisterialCouncilimposed
    anupperlimitonsurfacewaterdiversions(Figure41.1).
    MAP 41.1
    MurrayDarlingbasin
    Lake
    Victoria
    Lower
    Lakes
    Lower
    Lakes
    Lower
    Lakes
    Menindee
    Lakes
    Menindee
    Lakes
    Menindee
    Lakes

    PACIFIC
    OCEAN
    SOUTHERN
    OCEAN

    D
    a
    r
    l
    i
    n
    g

    D
    a
    r
    l
    i
    n
    g

    L
    a
    c
    h
    lan
    L
    a
    c
    h
    lan
    M
    u
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    r
    a
    y
    M
    u
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    r
    a
    y
    Murrumbidge
    e
    Murrumbidge
    e
    QUEENS LAND
    W
    AAAAAAAA
    S OUT
    AUS TRA
    Brisbane
    Melbourne
    Adelaide
    Sydney
    Canberra
    0 100 200 300 400 500 km
    AUS TRALI A
    City
    Hydroelectric
    power plant
    State border
    Floodplain
    Basin
    WWDR4 805 MURRAYDARLINGBASIN,AUSTRALIA
    TABLE 41.1
    SurfacewateruseintheMurray-Darlingbasin*
    * According to 2006-07 water sharing, water entitlements and irrigation portfolios
    FIGURE 41.1
    Totalsysteminows,surfacewateruseanddamstoragecapacityintheMurray-Darlingbasin
    Surface water use km3/year % of overall
    Net irrigation diversions 9.51 84
    Rural stock and domestic 0.08 <1
    Urban 0.32 3
    Channel and pipe loss 1.24 11
    Stream ow loss due to groundwater
    pumping
    0.18 <2
    Water and agriculture
    TheMurrayDarlingbasinisAustraliasfoodbowl.
    Agricultureispractisedapproximatelyin80%ofits
    area,accountingforabout40%ofthecountrystotal
    agriculturalproduction.Themaincropsarecotton,
    rice,wheat,corn,grapes,citrusfruitandotherfruit
    trees.Cattleandsheepproductionandirrigateddairy
    farmingarealsocommonsourcesofincome.The
    amountofwaterusedtomaintainlivestock-related
    agriculturalactivitiescorrespondstoaroundhalfof
    Australiastotalwaterconsumptionandaround60%of
    totalagriculturalwateruse.
    Water management at the national level and
    in the basin
    Anincreaseinwaterdiversionsledtoconcernsabout
    thehealthofthebasinanditsenvironmentalows.But
    becausewaterallocationsaregovernedbyseparate
    1907 1917 1927 1937 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
    (
    V
    a
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    s

    a
    r
    e

    i
    n

    k
    m
    3

    p
    e
    r

    y
    e
    a
    r
    )
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    0
    averagenaturalowthesea
    totalsysteminows(10yrmov.average) totaldamstoragecapacity surfacewateruse
    averagenaturalowtothesea
    806 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC CHAPTER41
    legislationandpoliciesinthevestatesthatsharethe
    basin,achievingthenecessaryenvironmentaltargetsis
    posingarealchallenge.
    Sincethe1990stherehasbeenaprogressiveshift
    towardsintegratedwaterresourcesmanagementinthe
    basin.In1993,theMurrayDarlingBasinCommissionwas
    establishedtopromoteandcoordinatetheequitable
    andsustainableuseofwateracrossthebasin.Itwas
    replacedin2008bytheMurrayDarlingBasinAuthority,
    whichactsasagovernmentstatutoryagency.The
    basinswaterresourcesaremanagedbytheMurray
    DarlingBasinAuthorityinconjunctionwiththestates
    andterritoriesthatmakeupitscatchmentarea.The
    itsmainresponsibilitiesaretomeasureandmonitor
    waterresourcesinthebasin;toprepare,implement
    andenforcethemanagementplan;tosetsurfaceand
    groundwaterabstractionlimits;andtodevelopawater
    rightsinformationservicetofacilitatewatertrading.
    BecauseAustraliahasafederalgovernmentsystem,it
    wasnecessarytohavenationalagreementtoensure
    thattherewouldbecompatibilityinthewayeach
    ofAustraliasstateandterritorygovernmentswas
    measuring,planningfor,pricingandtradingwater.
    Tothisend,theNationalWaterInitiativewassigned
    bytheCouncilofAustralianGovernmentsin2004.
    Itisanintergovernmentalagreementsignedbyall
    ofAustraliasstateandterritorygovernmentsandis
    thecountrysblueprintforwaterreform.Established
    undertheNationalWaterInitiative,theNational
    WaterCommissionisanindependentstatutorybody
    thatisresponsibleforhelpingtodrivenationalwater
    reformandadvisegovernmentsonwaterissues.The
    commission'sspecicfunctionsinthecontextofthe
    MurrayDarlingbasinincludemonitoringtheefects
    ofinterstatetradeinwateraccessentitlementsin
    thesouthernpartofthebasin,advisingthevarious
    NationalWaterInitiativesignatoriesaboutthese
    efects,andauditingtheefectivenessoftheMurray
    Darlingbasinwatermanagementplan.
    Climate change and climatic variability
    Theseveredroughtthatafectedmostofsouth-
    easternAustralia(includingthesouthernpartofthe
    MurrayDarlingbasin)beganin1997andcontinuedfor
    twelveyears.Thiscausedsignicanteconomiclosses
    acrosstheregion(Box41.1).Theaverageannualrainfall
    decitofthisdroughtissimilartothatofthe1935
    1945drought.However,therecentdroughthasledto
    amuchstrongerdecreaseinrunofandgroundwater
    recharge.Thiscanbeexplainedbyachangeinrainfall
    patternsduringtherecentdrought:lowerinter-annual
    variabilityandlessrainfallinautumnandwinter.The
    droughtendedwithrainsthatcausedsomeofthe
    highestoodwatersonrecordin20102011.
    Thesemi-aridtoaridnatureoftheregionmeansthatit
    alreadyhasveryhighnaturalhydroclimaticvariability
    addingtheefectsofclimatechangetothisposes
    anevengreaterchallenge.Acomprehensiveproject
    commissionedbythefederalandstategovernments
    suggestedthat,underamedianscenario,surfacewater
    availabilityacrosstheentireMurrayDarlingbasinwould
    declineby11%byabout2030asaresultofclimate
    change.Theprojectedreductioninwateravailability
    wouldreducesurfacewateruseby4%.However,water
    useinthedriestyearswouldbeafectedfarmoreby
    upto50%inthebasininVictoria.
    Thegreatestimpactofclimatechangeislikelytooccur
    closetothemouthoftheMurrayRiver,includinginthe
    Chowillaoodplains,theCoorongnationalparkand
    lagoonecosystem,andtheLowerLakes.Theoutows
    fromtheMurrayRiverarealreadyafectedbycurrent
    waterdiversionsthatreduceannualnaturaloutowsby
    40%.Andtheseareprojectedtodropbyanestimated
    further30%by2030.Fromanecologicalpointofview,
    theimpactofwaterdiversionsonariverbasinisoften
    greaterthantheefectsofclimatechange.However,
    thecombinedefectsofboththewaterdiversionsand
    climatechangecouldmorethandoubletheaverage
    durationbetweenbenecialoods.Thiswouldhave
    asignicantimpactonwetlandsandtheirassociated
    ecosystems.Towardstheendofthetwenty-rst

    century,
    theimpactofclimatechangecouldsignicantlyincrease,
    dependingonemissionsscenarios.Whatisevenmore
    concerningisthatthecurrenttrendingreenhousegases
    emissionisalarminglyinexcessofmostscenariosthat
    arecurrentlyconsideredinclimatechangeprojections.
    Water and the environment
    Therearenearly30,000wetlandsintheMurray
    Darlingbasinthatareimportantfornativeshand
    thefeedingandbreedingoflocalandmigratory
    waterbirds.Themajorwetlandslocatedalong
    theDarlingbasinincludetheMacquariemarshes,
    theGreatCumbungSwamp,theoverowlakesof
    theParooRiver,theNarranlakes,andtheGwydir
    wetlands.ThelargestwetlandsontheMurrayarethe
    BarmahMillewa,GunbowerandKoondrookPericoota
    wetlands,theChowillaoodplainsandtheLower
    WWDR4 807 MURRAYDARLINGBASIN,AUSTRALIA
    LakesandCoorongLakessystemsattheinterfacewith
    theSouthernOcean(Map41.1).
    SixteenoftheMurrayDarlingbasin'swetlandsare
    identiedasinternationallyimportantandlistedunder
    theRamsarConvention.Similarly,theDirectory of
    Important Wetlands in Australiaincludesapproximately
    200sitesinthebasin.Therearealargenumberof
    nationallyandinternationallysignicantplantand
    animalspeciesinthebasin.However,asaresultof
    pollutionandmodiedriverowsassociatedwith
    large-scalewaterresourcesdevelopment,95species
    arelistedasthreatened,morethanhalfofitsnative
    shspeciesareconsideredtobeinneedofattention
    andshpopulationsareestimatedtobeonlyabout
    10%ofpredevelopmentlevels.
    The19972009droughtexacerbatedtheseverityof
    theseproblems.Forexample,therecord-lowows
    attheoutletoftheMurrayDarlingledtoasharp
    declineininundatedareas.Italsoledtoadegradation
    ofwaterqualityasaresultofincreasedsalinity,
    whichcausedsevereecologicalandsignicantsocio-
    economicimpacts.Duringthedrought,thewater
    levelatLakeAlexandrina,whichisthelargestwater
    bodyintheLowerLakessystem(Map41.1),dropped
    Duringthe19972009drought,surfacewaterstoragedroppedtolessthan10%ofstoragecapacityandgroundwaterde-
    clinedbyasmuchas100km3.Thisimposedseverewaterrestrictionsonbothurbancommunitiesandfarmerswhodepend
    onirrigation.Overallestimatesoftheeconomiccostofthisdroughtarenotreadilyavailable,thoughsomestudieshaveesti-
    matedaspectsofit.
    Agriculturalexportsaccountforone-fthoftotalAustralianexports.In2002,droughtwasestimatedtohaveloweredgross
    domesticproduct(GDP)by1.6%(morethanUS$10billion),ofwhicharound1%wastheresultofreducedagriculturalexport.
    Thedroughtwasalsoimplicatedina1%nationaldeclineinemploymentandwages.
    Regionalimpactsweremuchstronger,withgrossregionalproductiondownbymorethan15%andemploymentdropping
    bymorethan3%intheworst-afectedregionsoftheMurrayDarlingBasin.TheAustralianReserveBankestimatedthatthe
    20062007dryyearinAustraliareducedGDPbyalmost1%,whereasfarmGDPfellbyaround20%.Morerecentlyitwases-
    timatedthatbetween2000and2007,thegrossvalueofirrigatedagriculturefellbyapproximatelyUS$140millionperyear.
    Duringtheperiods20052006and20072008,thetotalareaofirrigatedlandfellby42%.
    BOX 41.1
    DroughtsheavytollonAustralia
    1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
    rice cotton
    P
    r
    o
    d
    u
    c
    t
    i
    o
    n

    i
    n
    d
    e
    x
    150
    120
    90
    60
    30
    0
    ProductionofcottonandriceintheMurray-Darlingbasin(100=averageannualproductionfor1990-2000)
    808 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC CHAPTER41
    byabout1.2mandthesalinitylevelincreasedsix-
    fold.Theexposureoflakebedsthatarenaturallyrich
    inironsulphidescausedtheproductionofsulphuric
    acidthreateningtherichoraandfaunaofthelakes
    ecosystems.
    Thesalinizationoflandandwaterresourcesis
    alsoenvironmentalprobleminthebasin.Salt
    concentrationsinsoilwaterandgroundwaterare
    predominantlyhighinthebasinbecauseofthe
    concentrationofcyclicsaltscausedbymillenniaof
    evapotranspiration.Thisnaturalconditionhasbeen
    furtheraggravatedbytheextensivelandclearance
    thatstartedinthenineteenthcenturytoincrease
    theamountoflandavailableforfarming.Cropsand
    pastureallowedmoregroundwaterrechargethandid
    theareasnativevegetation,whichcausedrisinglevels
    ofsalinegroundwatertocontaminatethelandandthe
    surfacewater.Theareaafectedbydrylandsalinity
    intheMurrayDarlingbasinstates(includingsites
    outsidethebasin)wasestimatedat6,400km2in1997.
    Conclusions
    TheMurrayDarlingbasincoversavastareathatis
    roughlyequaltothesizeofFranceandGermany
    combined.Extensiveagriculturalpracticeshave
    madethebasinthefoodbasketofAustraliaanda
    majorsourceofincome.However,usagepatterns
    haveputgreatstressonwaterresourcesandhave
    passedbeyondthecriticallimitofsustainableuse.
    Landandwaterresourcesdevelopmenthavealtered
    thehydrologicalconditions,causedenvironmental
    degradationandsignicantlyafectedecosystems.
    Inrecentdecades,watermanagementobjectives
    haveshiftedfromlarge-scaledevelopmentofthe
    waterresourcesforirrigationtoenvironmental
    concerns.Inparallel,watergovernanceisgradually
    movingtoacoordinatedandintegratedmanagement
    thatissharedbetweenthestateandtheterritory
    governmentsinthebasincatchmentarea.Thesevere
    droughtthatlastedmorethanadecadefrom1997to
    2009causedsignicanteconomicandenvironmental
    damage,andbroughtthetensionbetweenagricultural
    andenvironmentalobjectivestoahead.However,the
    NationalWaterInitiativeandtherecentlyestablished
    MurrayDarlingBasinAuthoritygivehopethatwater
    consumptionpatternswillbereevaluatedwithaview
    toimprovinghydrologicalconditionstoapointwhere
    theycansustainthesocial,ecologicalandeconomic
    systemsthatdependonthem.

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheCaseStudy
    Report,The MurrayDarling Basin: A Major Food Bowl
    In Crisis Lessons from the Past and Challenges Ahead,
    preparedin2011byLeblancetal.(forthcoming).

    Acknowledgements HongqiShang,FengSun,YangboSun,HuiPang,WuDong,
    RuipengSon,ZhenGong,HaiJin,ZhaoHao,JingXu,RamasamyJayakumar,KeLiu,
    HaoLiu,BingWang
    CHAPTER 42
    Yellow River basin, China
    YellowRiverConservancyCommission(YRCC)
    810 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC CHAPTER42
    TheYellowRiverbasinwascoveredindetailinthe
    casestudyvolumeofthethirdeditionoftheWorld
    Water Development Report(WWAP,2009).Inagree-
    mentwiththeYellowRiverBasinCommission,a
    follow-upstudywasdevelopedtoprovideup-to-date
    informationwherepossibleandtofurtherfocuson
    criticalchallengessuchasclimatechange,erosion,
    sedimenttransportandwaterquality.
    Location and general characteristics
    TheYellowRiver,thesecond-longestinthePeoples
    RepublicofChina(calledChinafromhereon),rises
    inthewesternpartofthecountryat4,700mabove
    sealevel.ItrunsthroughnorthernandcentralChina,
    wherethetemperatecontinentalmonsoonclimateis
    dominant.Thesoutheasternsectionofthebasinhas
    ahumidclimate,whereasthenorth-westernareas
    areconsiderablydrier.Theriverpassesthroughnine
    provincesQinghai,Sichuan,Gansu,Ningxia,Inner-
    Mongolia,Shaanxi,Shanxi,HenanandShandong
    beforedrainingintotheBoHaiSea(Map42.1).
    Geographically,theYellowRivertraversestheTibetan
    Plateau(upperbasin),theLoessPlateau(middle
    basin)andtheNorthChinaPlain(lowerbasin).
    TheYellowRiverbasincoversanareaof795,000
    km2,

    whichishometoapproximately110million
    inhabitantsorabout8.7%ofChinaspopulationin
    2000.However,thepopulationisunevenlydistributed,
    withabout70%livinginthelowerthirdofthebasin.
    RegardedasthecradleofnorthernChinesecivilization
    andtheheartofmodernChinaspolitical,economic
    andsocialdevelopment,theYellowRiverisknownas
    themotherriverofChina.
    Water and land resources in the basin
    TheaveragesurfacewaterpotentialoftheYellow
    Riverbasinis57billionm3andaveragegroundwater
    potentialisabout38.5billionm3.In2009,water
    consumptioninthebasinwas39.3billionm3,ofwhich
    over78%camefromsurfacewaterandalmost22%
    fromgroundwaterresources.Since1980,therate
    ofgroundwaterexploitationhasincreasedrapidly,
    reachingunsustainablelevels.Infact,65locations
    spreadoveranareaofnearly6,000km2

    haverelatively
    largegroundwaterdepressions.
    Thereare163,000km2ofpotentiallycultivableland
    inthebasin.Ofthis,120,000km2(or15%ofthe
    basinterritory)iscultivated,including75,000km2
    ofirrigatedland.Sincethe1950s,theimportanceof
    agriculturetotheeconomyhasdeclinedandother
    sectorsaremakingabiggercontributiontothegross
    domesticproduct(GDP)ofthebasin(Table42.1).
    Manynewindustrialcitieshavebeenfounded:Xining,
    Lanzhou,Yinchuan,Baotou,Huhehot,Taiyuan,Xian,
    Luoyang,ZhengzhouandJinan.However,agriculture
    stillaccountsfor75%ofwaterdemand.
    MAP 42.1
    YellowRiverbasin
    Tengri
    Desert
    Lanzhou Lanzhou
    Yinchuan Yinchuan
    Baotou Baotou
    Wuyuan Wuyuan
    Yanan Yanan
    Linfen Linfen
    Baoji Baoji
    Xian Xian
    Luoyang Luoyang
    Zhengzhou Zhengzhou
    Tongchuan Tongchuan
    Taiyuan Taiyuan
    Huhehot Huhehot
    Beijing
    Jinan
    Xining Xining
    CHINA
    MONGOLIA MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMOONNG NG OOOOO G N OOOOONNNGGGG NNNNNNN O GG ONGOOLLL GGGGGG L OOOOOOOLLLLLL OOOOL OO GG L O IAA IIIIIIAAAAAAAAAAA IIA MMM G N OOONNGOO GGOLL O AA IIAA
    F
    e
    n

    H
    e
    W
    ei
    Y
    e
    l
    l
    o
    w

    R
    i
    v
    e
    r
    Y
    e
    l
    l
    o
    w

    R
    i
    v
    e
    r
    Qinghai Hu Qinghai Hu
    Bo Hai Bo Hai
    0 100 250 km
    CHI NA
    City
    National park
    Dam
    Basin
    Ramsar site
    WWDR4 811 YELLOWRIVERBASIN,CHINA
    Climate change
    Between1961and2005,annualaverageprecipitation
    inthebasindecreasedslightlyby,onaverage,
    12mmeverytenyears.However,thistrendwas
    signicantatonlynineofthe51stations.Overthe
    longterm,theamountofprecipitationinJanuary
    mayincreasebylessthan7millimeterby2100.Based
    onscenarios,therainfallinthemiddleandlower
    reachesofthebasinmightbehigherthaninthe
    upperreaches.Duringthesameperiod,theannual
    meanairtemperatureacrossthebasinincreased
    atarateof0.3Ceverytenyears.Over90%ofthe
    monitoringstations(53of58stations)showeda
    signicantincreaseintheannualmeanairtempe-
    rature.Togiveanexample,attheMenyuanand
    Hezuostations,bothofwhicharelocatedinthe
    upperYellowRiverbasin,theaverageairtemperature
    in2004was1.14Chigherthanin1960.Accordingto
    models,Januarymeantemperaturescouldincrease
    byasmuchas5.0Cby2100.Signicantwarming
    couldreducetheavailabilityofthewaterresources
    (Zhangetal.,2008).Consequently,betterwater
    managementandtheadaptationoftechnologyto
    improvetheefciencyofwaterusewillneedtobe
    consideredtopreventacriticalwatershortageinthe
    basininthiscenturyandbeyond.
    TABLE 42.1
    GDPofprovincesintheYellowRiverbasin(2006)
    Provinces Agriculture
    (million US$)
    Industry
    (million US$)
    Service Industry
    (million US$)
    Total GDP
    (million US$)
    Increase since
    2000
    (million US$)
    Qinghai 68 241 237 546 435
    Sichuan 4 3 3 10 8
    Gansu 224 957 846 2,027 1,736
    Ningxia 101 441 354 896 705
    Inner Mongolia 271 1,889 1,146 3,306 2,625
    Shaanxi 455 2,822 1,792 5,069 3,969
    Shanxi 218 2,406 1,277 3,901 3,164
    Henan 369 1,908 1,033 3,310 2,645
    Shandong 205 1,296 994 2,495 2,011
    Yellow River basin 1,915 11,963 7,682 21,560 17,298
    Concerns about environmental degradation
    and water-related disasters
    Waterpollutionisasevereprobleminthebasin.In1997,
    only17%ofthecourseoftheYellowRiverwastfor
    drinkingwater.Thishadadirectnegativeimpacton
    humanhealthandthebasinsecosystems.In1982,more
    than80%ofthe96algaetypesfoundintheYellow
    Riverwereeitherseverelyormoderatelypolluted.
    Furthermore,analysisofhistoricdatasincethe1980s
    showsareductioninthenumberofshspeciesand
    totalshquantityintheriver(Ruetal.,2010).
    TheYellowRiverConservancyCommission(YRCC),
    oneofsevencommissionsoftheMinistryofWater
    ResourcesinChina,wassetuptoaddresstheproblem
    ofwaterqualityandmanagewaterresourcesin
    thebasin(Box42.1).TheYRCChasintroducedthe
    followingmeasures:
    Settingamaximumpollutantdischargequantityfor
    theprovincesaccordingtotheinowoftheYellow
    River;
    Strengtheningthewaterqualitymonitoringonthe
    provincialboundary;and,
    Enforcingthelegislationonwaterpollution
    preventionandprotection.
    Thankstotheseeforts,thewaterqualityinthemain
    streamoftheYellowRiverhasimprovedconsiderably.
    In2006,approximately60%ofthecourseoftheriver
    wasinthegoodqualitycategory.Andbetween2002
    812 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC CHAPTER42
    and2006,theareasoftheriverthatwererankedas
    badqualityfellfrom21.1%to3.1%.
    ErosioninthebasinoccursmainlyalongtheLoess
    Plateau,andisamajorproblem.Theplateaucovers
    anareaof640,000km2

    withaveragethicknessof
    loesssoilrangingfrom50mto300m.Thevolume
    ofsedimentintheYellowRiverthatoriginatesfrom
    thisregionisabout1.2billiontonnesperyear.That
    accountsfor60%ofChinastotalsoilerosionand10%
    oftheworldtotal.Infact,itistheyellowcolourofthe
    suspendedsedimentsthatgivestheriveritsname.
    Whiletheerosionintheloesssoilbandisanatural
    phenomenon,ithasincreasedgreatlyasaresultof
    theenvironmentaldegradationcausedbyhuman
    activities,especiallydeforestation,overgrazing,and
    over-cropping(Box42.1).
    Whileaportionoftheheavysedimentloadis
    transportedtothesea,mostofitisdepositedon
    theriverbedandontothebanks.Consequently,the
    riverowsinachannelthatishigherthanground
    level.Togiveanexample,theriverbedis20mabove
    groundlevelinXingxiangcity,13maboveinKaifeng
    city,and5maboveinJinancity.Thetotalregion
    wherethelandislowerthantheriverbedcovers
    some120,000km2andishometoapproximately
    90millioninhabitants.Becausedikebreaches
    couldresultindevastatingoods,theleveesonthe
    TheYellowRiverConservancyCommissionisanagencyoftheMinistryofWaterResources.Itisinchargeofmanagingland
    andwaterresourcesinthebasin,includingprotectingitsecosystems.TheYRCCoperateswithinanestablishedlegaland
    regulatoryframeworktoplan,implementandmaintainsoilandwaterconservationprogrammes.
    Sincethemid-1950stheCommissionhasputanumberoflarge-scalelandmanagementprojectsintooperationinthebasin,
    particularlyintheLoessPlateauregion.Thishasincludedconstructingdams,aforestationandterracingeforts,andconvert-
    ingcroplandonslopesintograzingland.Ingeneral,thekeystrategiesaimedatmanagingsedimentloadintheYellowRiver
    basininclude:
    Soilconservationworksaforestation,terracingandconstructingbarriers;
    Improvinglandusepracticesregulatingcroppingonslopes,enhancingtillagepractices,etc.;and
    Commissioningengineeringworkstocontrolowsandreducesedimentdepositionintheriversystem.
    TheseactivitiescoupledwithoodcontrolsupporthavebeensuccessfulinreducingthesedimentloadoftheYellowRiver.
    However,thesoilconservationprojectsintheLoessPlateauareexpectedtoreduceriverrunofbyasmuchas2billionm3
    by2030.Giventheincreasingdemandforwater,thereductioninwateravailabilitywilladdtoexistingcompetitionbetween
    sectorsforthispreciousresource.
    Source: Adapted from UNESCO and IRTCES (2011).
    BOX 42.1
    SedimentmanagementstrategiesintheYellowRiverbasin
    YellowRiveroodplainareregularlymaintained
    andrebuilt.However,alltheseefortswouldnotbe
    enoughtocopewithamajorcatastrophesuchasa
    100-year-oodwhichcouldcausesignicantsocio-
    economicdamage.Amajoroodin1938afected
    12.5millionpeopleandclaimed890,000lives.Today,
    approximately1.9millionpeoplelivingintheinner
    oodplainofthelowerpartofYellowRiverbasinare
    facingimminentthreat.
    Water resources management
    Asaresultofasubstantialincreaseinwaterdemand
    intheupperandmiddlereachesofthebasin,partsof
    therivercourseweredrytwenty-onetimesbetween
    1972and1999.In1987,inanattempttostrikeabetter
    balancebetweensupplyanddemand,ChinasState
    CouncilsetuptheYellowRiverWaterAllocation
    Scheme.Thiswasfollowedin2006byanordinanceto
    regulateandcontrolwatervolumeintheYellowRiver.
    ThisordinanceputswaterextractionfromtheYellow
    Riverunderstatecontrolinordertosatisfydemand
    andimproveenvironmentalconditionsbyensuring
    ow,especiallyinthelowerreachesofthebasin,
    (Zhao,2006).Italsoaimstopromotesocio-economic
    developmentinthebasin.
    Theordinanceforeseesanintegratedwaterallocation
    scheme.ItvestsintheYRCCtheresponsibilityof
    draftingtheannualwater-useplaninconsultationwith
    WWDR4 813 YELLOWRIVERBASIN,CHINA
    elevenprovincesandautonomousregions.Theplan
    setsthequotaforeachprovinceaccordingtoriver
    owforecasts.Thesequotasarethenupdatedona
    monthlybasistakingintoconsiderationactualwater
    availabilityintheriver.Theprovincialgovernments
    areresponsiblefortheallocationofwaterresourcesin
    theirjurisdiction,withinthelimitsoftheirquota.
    Toensurethatthewaterallocationsystemfunctions
    properly,administrativeandlegislativemeasuresare
    backedbytechnicalmethods.Forexample,during
    theoodseason,allreservoirsareoperatedinan
    integratedmannertoregulatetheriverowand
    subsequentwaterdistribution.Inaddition,onlineriver
    informationsystemsallowaccurateobservationof
    wateravailabilityalongthecourseoftheYellowRiver.
    Theyalsoallowtheallocationschemetobeadapted
    toguaranteethewaterrightsoftheprovincesinthe
    lowerreachesofthebasin.
    Since1999,therehasbeennocut-ofoftheowin
    thelowerYellowRiverbasin,andenvironmentalows
    haveincreasedby1billionm3

    inthelow-owseason.
    Overall,thetotalow
    1
    reservedforsedimentushing
    andenvironmentalneedshasreachedapproximately
    to20billionm3.

    Consequently,estuarywetlandshave
    increasedinsizeby253km2,

    andbiodiversityhas
    improved.
    Conclusions
    ThechallengesdescribedinthepreviousWorld
    Water Development Reporthavenotchangedin
    thepastthreeyears.Consequently,waterquality,
    environmentaldegradation,theunsustainableuse
    ofwaterresources(notablygroundwater)and
    sedimenttransportarestillhighontheagendaof
    theYellowRiverConservancyCommission(YRCC).
    Onthepositiveside,measurestakenbytheYRCCto
    limitpollutantdischargeandtoenforcelegislation
    havehelpedtoimprovewaterqualityintheriver.
    Asaresultoftheallocationscheme,riverowin
    thelowerbasinhasmettheminimumlevelrequired
    toushthesedimentandsustainbasicecosystem
    needs.ThephysicalcharacteristicsoftheLoess
    Plateaumeanthatsedimenttransportwillcontinue
    tobeaprobleminthebasin.However,management
    practices,particularlyaforestationandtillage,have
    reducedsedimentloadsintheYellowRiverand
    itstributaries.Inspiteofprogressmadeinvarious
    elds,thegrowingimbalancebetweensupplyand
    demandwillrequirehardchoicestobemadein
    ordertoaddressdivergingneedsandreducewater
    consumptioninagriculture,whilemakingother
    sectorsmorewaterefcient.

    Notes
    1 TheUnited Nations World Water Development Report 3(WWAP,
    2009)reportedthattheminimumowrequiredtoushout
    sedimentiscalculatedat14billionm3,andanadditional5
    billionm3isnecessaryforotherenvironmentalrequirements.

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheYellow River
    basin Case Study Report,preparedin2011bythe
    YellowRiverConservancyCommission,Ministry
    ofWaterResources,PeoplesRepublicofChina
    (unpublished).
    Ru,H.,Wang,H.,Zhao,W.,Shen,Y.,Wang,Y.andZhang,X.
    2010.FishesinthemainstreamoftheYellowRiver:
    assemblagecharacteristicsandhistoricalchanges.
    Biodiversity Science,Vol.18,pp.16974
    UNESCOandIRTCES(InternationalResearchandTraining
    CenteronErosionandSedimentation).2011.Sediment
    Issues in the Yellow River Basin, China.International
    SedimentInitiative.Paris/Beijing,UNESCO/IRTCES.http://
    www.irtces.org/isi/isi_document/2011/ISI_Fact_Sheets.pdf
    WWAP(UnitedNationsWorldWaterAssessment
    Programme).2009. China:TheYellowRiverbasin.United
    Nations World Water Development Report 3, Case Studies
    Volume: Facing the Challenges.Paris,UNESCO.http://
    www.unesco.org/new/en/natural-sciences/environment/
    water/wwap/case-studies/asia-the-pacic/china-2009/
    Zhang,Q.,Xu,C.-Y.,Zhang,Z.,Ren,G.andChen,Y.D.2008.
    Climatechangeorvariability?ThecaseofYellowriver
    asindicatedbyextrememaximumandminimumair
    temperatureduring19602004.Theoretical and Applied
    Climatology,vol.93,Nos12.
    Zhao,H.2006.YellowRiverwaterusetoberegulated.
    China Daily,2August.http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/
    china/2006-08/02/content_654981.htm

    Acknowledgements YongjeKim,Gi-WonKoh,SungKim,JaeHeyonPark
    CHAPTER 43
    Jeju Island, Korea
    JejuSpecialSelf-GoverningProvince
    WWDR4 815 JEJUISLAND,KOREA
    Location and general characteristics
    JejuProvinceisthelargestislandintheRepublicof
    Korea(Koreafromhereon).Locatedofthesouth-
    westcoastoftheKoreanpeninsulaintheSouth
    KoreaStrait,thisself-governingprovinceishome
    toapproximately567,000inhabitants,andhasa
    surfaceareaof1,848km2.

    Rightinthecentreofthe
    island,volcanicMountHallaisJejusdominating
    geographicalfeature(Map43.1),andtops1,950metres
    atitshighestpoint.JejuProvincehastwomaincities,
    JejuinthenorthandSeogwipointhesouth.Intotal,
    thereareseventownsandvedistrictsontheisland.
    Jejusgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)isslightlylower
    thanthatoftheKoreanmainland.Italsohasalow
    populationgrowthrate(0.45%in2005),andisnot
    subjecttosignicantmigratorymovements.
    Althoughrelativelysmall,JejuProvincehasboth
    sub-tropicaloceanicandtemperateclimates,with
    ameanannualrainfallof1,975mm.About60%
    ofannualprecipitationoccursduringthesummer
    monsoonbetweenJuneandSeptember.Alow
    evapotranspirationrateandhighpermeabilityof
    geologicformationsallowyear-roundrechargeof
    MAP 43.1
    JejuIsland
    groundwater,asapproximatelyhalfoftheannual
    rainfall(1.58billionm3)

    permeatesintotheground.
    Water resources and their use
    Whilesurfacewaterpotentialis260millionm3,itis
    ephemeralincharacter.Therefore,groundwateristhe
    primarysourceofwaterontheisland,anditisheavily
    drawnon.In2010,annualabstractioncorrespondedto
    20%ofestimatedsafeyield(Table43.1).
    TABLE 43.1
    GroundwaterdevelopmentanduseinJejuIsland
    * Food processing, etc.
    + Estimated safe yield: 1,768,000 m3/d
    Consumption
    Amount
    (m3/d)
    %
    Domestic 202,000 57.1
    Agriculture 144,000 40.7
    Industry and others* 8,000 2.2
    Total
    +
    354,000 100.0
    0 5 10 Km
    National Park
    Hallasan
    Jeju
    Seogwipo
    Halla Mountain
    National Park
    Halla Mountain
    National Park
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    Basin
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    816 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC CHAPTER43
    Agricultureispractisedover31%oftheisland.The
    mostimportantagriculturalproductsareorangesand
    mandarins,followedbyothercropssuchasbeans,
    radishes,garlicandpotatoes.Riceiscultivatedon
    analmostnegligiblescale.Between1970and2002,
    thesizeoftheagriculturalareaincreasedatarateof
    0.5%peryear.However,sincethentherehasbeena
    decliningtrend,whichisexpectedtocontinue.
    Theareaofirrigatedlandisapproximately380km2,
    whichcorrespondsto71%ofthetotalcultivatedarea
    asof2003.Althoughmoreagriculturallandcanbe
    irrigated,theavailabilityofwateristhelimitingfactor.
    Whiledripirrigationandsprinklersareused,there
    isstillthepossibilityofimprovingefciency.Overall,
    98.8%ofirrigationwaterisdrawnfromaquifers.
    Unfortunately,groundwatercontaminationasaresult
    ofagriculturalactivityisevidentincoastalareas.
    Measurementsindicatethat18%ofgroundwater
    resourceshaveincreasedlevelsofnitrates,sodium,
    magnesium,calciumandsulfate,whicharethe
    chemicalcomponentsofthefertilizersused. Livestock
    productionalsocontributestopollutionlevels.
    Climate change, climatic variations and
    water-related natural disasters
    Analysisofrainfalloverthepasteightyyearsshows
    aslightlyincreasingtrendinannualprecipitationand
    rainfallintensity.Annualprecipitationincreasedfrom
    1,360mminthe1930stomorethan1,500mminthe
    1990s.Theextremevalueofdailyprecipitationhasalso
    increasedby95mmbetween1951and2008.Thedaily
    precipitationof542mmrecordedduringtyphoon
    NariinSeptember2007,correspondedtotherainfall
    intensityofaonce-in-a-thousand-yearevent.
    Therehasbeena1.6Cincreaseinaveragewinter
    temperaturessincethe1930s.Asaresult,boththe
    depthofsnowathighelevations(suchasMount
    Halla)andthetotalnumberofdaysofsnowfallhave
    beentrendingdownwards.Since1960,theaverage
    annualrateofsea-levelrisearoundJejuIslandhas
    beenapproximately6mm,whichisaboutthree
    timestheglobalaverage.Becauseofthisriseand
    theaccompanyingseawaterintrusion,thequalityof
    groundwaterisdeterioratingparticularlyaroundthe
    coastwherethepopulationdensityisthehighest.
    Intermsofwaterrelatednaturaldisasters,from1991
    to2000,JejuIslandwashit23timesbytyphoons.The
    seasonalvariationinprecipitationresultsinoodsin
    summeranddroughtduringotherseasons.Infact,
    heavyrainfall,oftenaccompaniedbytyphoons,brings
    about70%ofannualprecipitationbetweenApril
    andOctober.Overthelast30years,thefrequency
    andtheintensityofoodsanddroughtshasbeen
    increasing(Figure43.1).Thesocio-economicimpact
    ofsuchnaturaldisastersisfurtheraggravatedby
    land-usechanges,especiallyduetodevelopmentin
    mountainousareas.Forexample,inSeptember2007,
    heavyrainfallfromTyphoonNaricausedamajorood
    necessitatingtheevacuationofmorethan14,000
    inhabitants.Thirteenpeoplelosttheirlivesinthe
    oodsandthecostofpropertydamagewasaround
    US$120million.Thispromptedlocalgovernment
    torevisetheexistingmasterplantoprovidebetter
    protectionagainstextremeevents(Box43.1).
    Eventhoughtheannualmeanprecipitationishighin
    Jeju,theIslandoftenexperiencesdroughtcausedby
    thelargevariationsinrainfall.Consequently,tobeable
    tobettermanagegroundwaterresourcesandcarry
    outdroughtimpactassessments,acomprehensive
    real-timemonitoringnetworkhasbeenputinplace
    tocollectinformationoncriticalvariables,notablythe
    groundwaterlevel.Theinformationcollectedallows
    theauthoritiestotakeappropriateaction,suchas
    limitingtheuseofgroundwatertominimizetherisk
    ofdegradationofaquifersthroughseawaterintrusion
    andcontamination.
    Water resources management
    Allaspectsofwatermanagement,fromresource
    developmenttopolicymakingandimplementation,
    arethedirectresponsibilityofthewaterandsewage
    administrationofthelocalgovernment.Growing
    concernsabouthowtoprotectgroundwaterresources
    fromover-pumpingandpotentialseawaterintrusion
    promptedthedevelopmentofaspecialActin
    1991,whichlaidtheframeworkforgroundwater
    managementandregulatedthedrillingofwells.Other
    administrativemeasuresincludedregularwater-quality
    inspectionsacrosstheisland,andataxincreasefor
    groundwateruse.In1996,theJejuWaterResources
    DevelopmentPlanledtotheestablishmentofamulti-
    regionwatersupplysystem.Therstphaseofthe
    systemwascompletedin2000,ensuringasupplyof
    145,000m3

    ofwateradayfromfourteengroundwater
    abstractionsitesontheeastoftheisland.Thesecond
    phasewaslaunchedin2002.Giventheimportanceof
    groundwaterresources,in2004thelocalgovernment
    putaspecicmanagementplaninplacetopromote
    WWDR4 817 JEJUISLAND,KOREA
    theimprovedmaintenanceofwells,moreefcientuse
    ofwaterinagriculture,andthediversicationofwater
    resourcesdevelopment.Followingstructuralreformsin
    2006,aheavilyfragmentedcityandcountyapproach
    towater-resourcesmanagementwasabandoned
    andreplacedbytheconsolidationofallfunctionsin
    theJejuWaterSupplyandDrainageManagement
    Headquarters.This,inadditiontobettermanagement
    ofwatersupply,helpedinthestandardizationof
    environmentalpracticesthroughtheadoptionofISO
    14001.Withinthiscontext,sewage-relatedoperations,
    previouslyadministeredbycities,wereintegrated
    intoregionalsystemsin2008,toensureamore
    environmentallyconsciousoverallapproach.
    Waterpricingisalsogearedtowardsdiscouraging
    themisuseofscarcewaterresources.Inlinewith
    guidelinessetbycentralgovernment,thosewater
    rateshavebeenincreasinggradually,withthe
    eventualaimofreachingfullcostrecovery.Asof
    2006,theunitpriceofwatercorrespondedto62.5%
    ofitsestimatedcost.
    ThelocalgovernmenthasplanstoinvestoverUS$780
    millionoveratimespanoftwentyyears(20042025)
    onwatersupplyandinfrastructureimprovement.A
    limitedportionofthesefundswillcomefromthe
    privatesector.Infact,publicprivatepartnershipsand
    privatizationofcertainservices,suchastheoperation
    ofsewagetreatmentplants,arebecomingmoreand
    morecommon.Asaresult,arangeofstrategiesis
    currentlyunderdevelopmenttopromotegreater
    involvementbytheprivatesector.

    Water and ecosystems
    JejuProvinceisrichinoraandfauna.Forexample,
    theGotjawalForest(locatedonthemiddleslopes
    ofHallaMountain)coversapproximately12%ofthe
    islandandislistedasaninternationallyimportant
    wetlandundertheRamsarConvention.Thenear-
    shoreoftheislandprovidesathrivingenvironmentfor
    its627reportedinvertebrateanimalspecies,amuch
    highernumberthaninotherpartsofKorea.Thewarm
    currentsandcoralreefformationsalongthesouthern
    shoreprovideanidealhabitatforsome300diferent
    FIGURE 43.1
    JejuIsland:water-relateddisasters1970to2010*
    * Including typhoon, ood, and heavy snow; Casualties include victims, death and disappearances.
    0
    10
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    40
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    No.ofdisasters Totaldamage(MillionUS$) Casualties(Persons)
    818 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC CHAPTER43
    TABLE 43.2
    AccesstoimprovedwatersupplyinJejuProvince
    Withgrowingpopulationdensity,extendedlanduse,andmorefrequentweatherextremes,JejuIslandisbecomingmuch
    morevulnerabletowater-relateddisasters.Consequently,thelocalgovernmentestablishedacomprehensivemasterplanfor
    oodcontrolin2006whichshiftedtheemphasisinextreme-eventmanagementtoanapproachwhichemphasizedsharing
    thewatershedwithnature.Thisinvolvedthepreparationofsite-specicoodcontrolplansthatcombinedbothstructural
    (suchasstream-beddredging,buildingofembankments,dams,etc.)andnon-structuralmeasures(includingaoodforecast
    andwarningsystem),theimprovementofresidentialland-useplanning,andtheintroductionofaoodinsurancesystemthat
    tookintoaccounttheefectsofclimatechange.
    However,theheavysocio-economiclossassociatedwithTyphoonNaripromptedtheexpansionofthatcoveragetoinclude
    individualstreamsin2008.Fortherststageoftheplan,ageneraldisasterpreventionschemewasdevelopedforfour
    streams(theHan,theByeongmun,theSanji,andtheDoksa)intheoldsectionofthecapital,Jeju-si,wherethetyphoon
    damagewasmostsevere.Asaresult,11oodmitigationreservoirs,withatotalvolumeof1,577,000m3,wereplannedand
    partiallyconstructed.NeartheHanstream,twoofthesereservoirswereconnectedtoarticialgroundwaterrechargesys-
    temstoaugmentthereplenishmentofthisvitalresource.Debrisbarriersandscreenswerealsoputinplacetopreventthe
    cloggingofchannelsinthestream.
    BOX 43.1
    Managementtoolsagainstextremeevents
    speciesofsh.Theislandisalsohometomany
    birdspecies,mammals,reptiles,andamphibians.
    Unfortunately,uncontrolledhuntinginthepast,along
    withover-useofagriculturalchemicalsandrapid
    urbanization,hasdoneconsiderableandirreversible
    damagetoecosystems.Intermsofeco-parks,
    Mulyeongari-oreuminSeogwipo-sibecametherst
    protectedareainKoreawiththeenactmentofnew
    wetlandprotectionlawsin1999.
    Water and settlements
    Sincethe1990s,thenumberofinhabitantsliving
    intheisland'sruralareashasremainedthesame
    whileitsurbanpopulationhassteadilyincreased.In
    2005,approximately70%oftheislandspopulation
    livedinurbansettlements.Intermsofaccesstosafe
    drinkingwater,almostallthepopulation,irrespective
    ofwhetheritisurbanorrural,isserved(Table
    43.2).Averagewaterconsumptionpercapitaper
    dayis340litres(2005).Minimizinglossesfrom
    infrastructureisamongthemainprioritiesofthelocal
    government.
    In2005,72.3%oftheislandspopulationwas
    connectedtocentralizedwaste-watertreatment
    facilities.At96.1%,coverageinurbanareasis
    signicantlyhigherthaninruralsettlements,
    whereonly18.5%ofthepopulationisconnected.
    Asubstantialefortwillberequiredbythelocal
    administrationtoimprovethisserviceinrural
    settlementswhilekeepingupwiththeurbangrowth.
    Thedailycapacityofallsewagetreatmentfacilitiesis
    178,479m3(2005),operatingatapproximately70%of
    theirdesigncapacity.
    Population
    (person)
    Water supply capacity
    (m3/day)
    Water supply rate
    (%)
    Daily water
    consumption per
    capita (litre)
    Jeju Province 559,747 316,548 100.0 340
    Urban areas 387,885 207,600 100.0 357
    Rural areas 171,862 108,948 99.9 302
    WWDR4 819 JEJUISLAND,KOREA
    Allocating water between uses and users
    Withtheexceptionoftheperiodduringthesummer
    monsoons,mostofJejusriversandstreamsare
    ephemeralincharacter.However,nearthecoastand
    acrossthemid-slopesofMountHalla,groundwater
    dischargefromfracturesinthebedrockforms
    numeroussprings.Historically,villageswere
    establishedinareaswheresuchspringswere
    abundant.Asaresult,communitieslearnedtoshare
    surfacewaterandgroundwaterinpeacethrough
    thecenturies.However,withincreasingdemand,
    conictshavebeguntoarise.Whiletheconstitution
    ofKoreaandlocallawsinJejuprovidebasicjudicial
    andadministrativeguidanceintermsofdeveloping
    groundwater,springsandstreams,thelackof
    specicityastofairuseandallocationremainsa
    problemthatneedstobeaddressedwithurgency.
    Conclusions
    Thankstoinvestment,theofJejuProvincehasmade
    signicantprogressintermsofsocio-economic
    standards,withitsinhabitantsboastingthehighest
    longevityinthecountry.Aquifershavelongprovided
    adependablesupplyoffreshwaterfordevelopment
    needs.However,currentlevelsofuse,coupledwith
    challengessuchaspollution,seawaterintrusion,and
    increasingdemand,meanthatmoreefectiveplanning
    throughintegratedwaterresourcemanagement
    isessential.Therewillalsobeneedforadditional
    legislation,supportedbypracticalmechanismsforthe
    allocationoflimitedwaterresourcesamongcompeting
    sectors.JejuIslandisoneoftheareasinKoreawith
    thehighestrainfall,andhydro-meteorologicaldata
    showsatrendtowardsincreasingintensity.Themaster
    planforoodcontrolandcontinuingimprovements
    ininfrastructureprovideastrongbasisfordisaster
    mitigationinthefuture.Overall,thenecessarynancial
    andhumanresourcesareinplacetoaddressthe
    water-relatedchallengesfacingJejuIsland.

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheRepublicof
    KoreaCaseStudyReport,Time for Solutions: An
    Assessment of Water Development in Jeju, Korea, a
    WWAPstudypreparedforthefourth

    editionofthe
    United Nations World Water Development Reportby
    theMinistryofLand,TransportandMaritimeAfairs,
    RepublicofKorea,2011(forthcoming).

    Acknowledgements KozueKayNagata,ArslanSyed
    CHAPTER 44
    Pakistan, with special reference
    to the Indus River basin
    Shutterstock/Asianet-Pakistan
    WWDR4 821 PAKISTAN,WITHSPECIALREFERENCETOTHEINDUSRIVERBASIN
    MAP 44.1
    IndusRiverbasin
    Location and general characteristics
    PakistanisborderedbyAfghanistantothenorth,
    theArabianSeatothesouth,Chinatothenorth-
    east,IndiatotheeastandtheIslamicRepublicof
    Irantothesouth-west(Map44.1).Therearethree
    majorgeographicalareas:thenorthernhighlands,the
    IndusRiverplainandtheBalochistanPlateau.The
    northernhighlandsincludepartsoftheHimalayas.
    TheIndusPlain,madeupofalluviumdepositedbythe
    IndusRiveranditstributaries,stretchesfromtheSalt
    RangetotheArabianSea.TheBalochistanPlateauis
    composedofdryhillsanddesertsthatrunfromnorth-
    easttosouth-west.
    Pakistanhasasurfaceareaof800,000km2

    and
    apopulationofapproximately185millionpeople
    (2010).Thecountryisdividedintofouradministrative
    provinces:thePunjab,Sindh,KhyberPakhtunkhaw
    andBalochistan,aswellasseveralareaswithspecial
    administrativestatus.
    Ingeneral,theclimateisarid,andmeanannual
    precipitationrangesfromlessthan100mminparts
    oftheLowerIndusPlaintoover750mminthe
    UpperIndusPlain.TheMonsoonsandthewestern
    disturbancesextratropicalstormsthatoriginatein
    theMediterraneanarethemajorsourcesofrainfall,
    two-thirdsofwhichusuallyfallsbetweenJulyand
    September.OntheIndusPlains,mostoftherainfalls
    duringtheMonsoonsinearlyJuly.
    OriginatinginthemountainsoftheTibetanPlateau,at
    analtitudeof5,000mabovesealevel,theIndusRiver
    isPakistansmostimportantsourceoffreshwater.
    Withadrainageareaofapproximately1.1millionkm2,
    theIndusRiverbasincoversapproximately65%of
    theterritoryofPakistan(FAOAquastat,2011a),and
    extendsintotheneighbouringcountriesofIndia,China
    andAfghanistan.
    Water resources and potential impact of
    climate change
    TheIndusRiveranditstributaries(theJhelum,the
    Chenab,theRavi,theSutlej,theBeasandtheKabul)
    haveanaveragecombinedpotentialof190billionm3

    ofwater.The1960IndusBasinTreatygivesPakistan
    exclusiveuseofthreewesternrivers(theIndus,the
    JhelumandtheChenab),whereasthreeeasternrivers
    (theRavi,theSutlejandtheBeas)areallocatedto
    India(Map44.1).ThePermanentIndusCommission,
    witharepresentativefromeachcountry,servesasthe
    regularchannelofcommunicationonmattersrelating
    totheimplementationoftheTreaty,particularlythe
    exchangeofdataandinformation.Mostoftherivers
    Zh
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    Hamun-i-
    Mashkel
    Hamun-i-
    Mashkel
    -- --
    ---
    Karachi Karachi
    Islamabad Islamabad
    Kabul Kabul
    Peshawar Peshawar
    Lahore Lahore
    CHI NA H
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    AF GHANI S TAN
    P AKI S TAN
    I S LAMI C
    REP UBLI C
    OF
    I RAN
    I NDI A
    0 100 200 300 km
    ARABI AN SEA
    City
    Hydroelectric
    power plant
    National park
    Basin
    Ramsar site
    International boundary
    822 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC CHAPTER44
    outsidetheIndusRiverbasinareinsubstantialstreams,
    whichowonlyduringtherainyseasonanddonot
    contributesignicantlytotheavailabilityofsurface
    water.
    BeneaththeIndusRiverbasinisanaquiferextending
    overanareaof160,000km2.Whilethesafeyieldis
    estimatedtobeabout68billionm3,thevolumeof
    groundwaterabstractionbydiferentsectors,including
    domesticconsumption,isalreadyapproaching62
    billionm3(FAOAquastat,2011b).Overthelasttwo
    decades,groundwaterhasplayedanimportantrolein
    sustainingirrigatedagricultureinPakistan,withmore
    than50%oftheirrigationwatercomingfrommore
    thanonemillionprivatelyownedwells.However,the
    currentrateofuseisnotsustainable,andgroundwater
    levelsaredeclininginmanyareas.
    Himalayanglaciersarethemajorsourceofthe
    freshwaterthatfeedstheIndusRiverandits
    tributaries.Accordingtoclimatechangescenarios,
    followinganinitialperiodofhighowscausedby
    acceleratedglacialmelt,itispredictedthatthe
    amountofwaterowingintotheIndusRiversystem
    maydecreasebyasmuchas30%to40%withinthe
    nexttwodecades.Furthermore,theefectsofclimate
    changeandsiltationmayreducealready-lowreservoir
    capacityinthebasinby30%.Theoverallreduction
    inwateravailabilitymaypotentiallyhaveaserious
    impactonirrigation.This,inturn,mayafectfood
    securitynationwide.Thereisalreadyconcernabout
    forecaststhatincreasingtemperaturesmayreduce
    grainyieldsinAsiaby15%to20%by2050(IFPRI,
    2011).
    ClimatechangeisalsoexpectedtoafecttheSouth
    Asianmonsoon.AccordingtotheIntergovernmental
    PanelonClimateChange(IPCC),anincreasein
    rainfallofupto24%mayamplifythefrequencyand
    magnitudeofoods.The2010ood(Box44.1)isan
    examplethatillustrateshowdevastatingthesocio-
    economicimpactofsuchcalamitiescanbeatthe
    nation-widelevel.Amorerecentexample,the2011
    oodingofSindhprovince,hasafected5.4million
    peopletodate.Thenumberofdeathshasreached
    223andover600,000homeshavebeendamaged
    ordestroyed.Nearly300,000people,themajorityof
    whomarewomenandchildren,arecurrentlyliving
    incamps(OCHA,2011).Theseextremeeventsclearly
    demonstratethatplanningandmitigationmeasures
    arerequiredifthecountryistobepreparedtocope
    withclimatechangeandclimaticvariations.
    Water and agriculture
    InPakistan,220,000km2

    ofland(approximately27%
    ofthecountry)iscultivated.Irrigationisusedon80%
    ofarablelandnationwide,andispractisedmainly
    intheIndusRiverbasin.Theirrigationsysteminthe
    IndusRiverbasinisoneofthelargestintheworld,
    withatotalof59,000kmofcanals.Overall,almost
    90%ofallagriculturalproductionissupportedby
    irrigation.Livestockproductionisalsowidespread,
    particularlyinBalochistanprovince,whereitis
    responsibleforalmost40%ofagriculturalincome.
    Whileagriculturalyieldgrewatanaverageannual
    rateof4.5%overthelastdecade,itscontribution
    togrossdomesticproduct(GDP)hasbeensteadily
    decreasingovertheyears.In2010,itssharewasdown
    to19.6%,whiletheservicesectorhasgrownto53.7%
    andindustryto26.8%.However,theimportanceof
    agricultureliesinthefactthatitemploysabout44%
    ofthenationsworkforce,supportsabout75%ofthe
    populationandaccountsformorethan60%ofexport
    earnings.
    Irrigationhashadanegativeimpactonsoilfertilityin
    thebasinasaresultofwaterlogging(oversaturation
    ofsoilbygroundwater)andsoilsalinization,which
    betweenthemhavealreadyafectedover20,000km2
    ofland.Theseproblemsresultfromacombination
    ofseveralfactors,includingseepagefromunlined
    earthencanalsystems,inadequateprovisionofsurface
    andsub-surfacedrainage,poorwatermanagement
    practices,andtheuseofpoorqualitygroundwaterfor
    irrigation.
    Asocialproblemlinkedtoirrigationistheinequityof
    waterdistribution.Theoperationofthebasin'sirrigation
    systemisbasedonacontinuouswatersupplyandis
    notrelatedtoactualcropwaterrequirements.The
    distributionofwaterfromthecanaloutletsisdone
    onaseven-dayrotationalsystem(locallyknownas
    warabandi).Farmersareallowedtotakeanentire
    owoftheoutletonceinsevendays,andforaperiod
    proportionaltothesizeoftheirlandholding.However,
    thewarabandisystemdiscriminatesagainsttail-enders,
    whoendupgetting40%orlesswaterthanhead-
    enders.Thishasseriousimplicationsnotonlyinterms
    ofequitybutintermsofcropproductivity.
    WWDR4 823 PAKISTAN,WITHSPECIALREFERENCETOTHEINDUSRIVERBASIN
    Asaresultofageandneglect,muchofthe
    infrastructureinthebasin'sirrigationsystemisin
    poorshape,resultinginconsiderablelossesacross
    thesystemandlowperformanceincarryingwater
    tothelowerreachesofcanals.Manyelementsof
    thevasthydraulicsystemarenowreachingtheend
    oftheirdesignlivesandhavetoberehabilitated
    orreplacedatanestimatedcostofaroundUS$
    60billion.Unfortunately,thereisahugebacklogof
    deferredrepairandmaintenance,aproblemwhichwas
    aggravatedbytheoodsof2010(Box44.1).
    Agricultureistheprimaryuserofwaterresources.
    Infact,agriculturetook96%ofthe183.5billionm
    3

    ofwaterusedin2008,followedbymunicipaland
    industrialuses(FAOAquastat,2011b).Projections
    clearlyshowthatwatersupplyintheIndusRiverbasin
    willgraduallybegintofallshortofdemand,withthe
    requirementforirrigationwaterexpectedtoriseto
    250billionm
    3
    in2025,asagainstavailabilityof190
    billionm
    3
    .Thisimminentchallengecallsformore
    efcientuseofwaterinagriculture,theadoptionof
    water-conservationmeasures,andtheaugmentation
    ofwaterstoragecapacityinordertopreventproblems
    feedingthegrowingpopulation.
    Water and health
    Accesstosafedrinkingwaterandsanitationin
    Pakistanisanissuethatrequiresconsiderable
    attentionandinvestment.In2008,about95%ofthe
    urbanpopulationhadaccesstowatersupplies(WHO/
    UNICEF,2010a),butonlysome55%ofthatnumber
    hadhouseholdconnections.Inruralareas,almosthalf
    ofthepopulationuseswaterfromsourcesthatarenot
    properlysuitableforhumanconsumptionsources
    suchasstreams,canals,villageponds,andsprings.In
    fact,anestimated62%oftheurbanpopulationand
    84%oftheruralpopulationdonottreattheirwater
    priortouse.Innationalterms,therateofaccessto
    sanitationis45%(WHO/UNICEF,2010b).Giventhis
    lowvalue,itwillbedifculttoachievethenational
    targetof90%coverageby2015.Thenancialcost
    ofthediseaseburdenthatislinkedtolackofsafe
    drinkingwaterandpropersanitationisequalto
    approximately2%ofPakistansGDP.
    Amongthereasonsforsuchlowratesofaccess
    towatersupplyandsanitationarelowtarifsand
    inadequaterevenuecollection.Theseproblemsresult
    inmeagreinvestmentandthedegradationofwater
    andsanitationinfrastructurecausedbyalackof
    periodicalmaintenance.Infact,water-relatedpublic
    investmentcorrespondstoonly0.25%ofGDP(ADB
    APWF,2007).Consequently,tarifadjustmentthat
    betterreectsthetruevalueofwaterandcoversthe
    costofserviceprovisionisconsideredvitalifcurrent
    challengesaretobeaddressed.
    PovertyisaseriousprobleminPakistan.Some60%
    ofthepopulationlivesonlessthantwodollarsaday,
    whileanother22%livesonlessthanonedollaraday.
    Morethan38%ofchildrenundervearemalnourished,
    with13%ofthoseseverelyunderweight.Poorhealth
    inchildrenislinkeddirectlytolackofeducationfor
    women.Asaresultofsubstantialgenderinequality,the
    literacyrateforwomenisjust35%,comparedto59%for
    men.Andbroadlyspeaking,whiletherehasbeensome
    successintheghtagainstpoverty,thedevastation
    causedbythemassiveoodin2010(Box44.1)islikely
    tohavehadadetrimentalefectonthistrend.
    Water and energy
    ThepotentialofhydropowergeneratedbytheIndus
    Riverisestimatedat35,700MWandover55,000MW
    fortheentireIndusRiversystem.Whileonly15%of
    thatoverallpotentialoftheIndusRiveriscurrently
    beingtapped,thecompletionofprojectsthatare
    alreadyunderwayorattheplanningstagewillmean
    thattheoverallhydropowergenerationcapacityof
    Pakistancanbeincreasedto25,000MW.
    Withdemandgrowingatanannualrateof10%,and
    theabsenceofanyhydropowerdevelopmentsince
    1975,theenergymixinPakistanhasshiftedtowards
    carbon-basedsources.Thishasledtomoreexpensive
    electricity,andshortagesthatafecteverysector
    oftheeconomy,particularlyindustry.Coalreserves
    remainasapotentialsourceforthermalenergy
    generation.
    Environment and ecosystems
    Despiteitsgenerallyaridclimate,therearemore
    than225signicantwetlandsinPakistan.Ofthese,
    19areinternationallyrecognizedundertheRamsar
    Convention.TheIndusRiveranditsoodplainsform
    themainaxisofthesewetlands,bothman-madeand
    natural,whichcoveratotalareaofapproximately
    7,800km2.

    Inaddition,theThar,Thal,Cholistan
    1
    ,Kharan
    andIndusValleydesertsalsosupportawiderangeof
    animalandplantspecies.Inall,thereare18threatened
    824 ASIAANDTHEPACIFIC CHAPTER44
    speciesofwetlandsdependentmammals,including
    theIndusRiverdolphin.Thereisnowaveryrealthreat
    tothetwentybirdspecies,twelvespeciesofreptile,
    twoendemicspeciesofamphibian,andmorethan190
    indigenousfreshwatershspeciesthataresupported
    byPakistanswetlands.
    TheIndusRiverbasinwetlands,inadditiontotheir
    intrinsicvalueasarichsourceofbiodiversity,also
    contributetotheghtagainstpovertythroughtheraw
    materialstheyproducethathelptosustainsubsistence
    living.

    Whileforestcoverisonlyaround6%,businesses
    associatedwithforestryemployalmosthalfamillion
    people.Fuel-woodproduction,whichprovides
    onethirdofthecountrysnationalenergyneeds,is
    unfortunatelyoneofthemajorcausesofshrinking
    forests.Thecontinuinglossofforesthabitat,andthe
    associatedfaunaandora,haveseriousimplications
    fortheregionsecosystems,aswellasfortheght
    againstpoverty.
    ThewaterqualityoftheIndusanditsmaintributaries
    deterioratestowardstheirdownstreamendasaresult
    ofmunicipalandindustrialcontaminantsandreturn
    Pakistanexperiencedtorrentialrainfallbetweenmid-
    JulyandSeptember2010.Thiscausedtheworstoods
    since1929,whichafectedtheentirecountry.Thesocio-
    economicimpactofthedisasterwasoverwhelming.
    AccordingtotheNationalDisasterManagementAuthority
    (NDMA),1,700peoplediedandover20millionwere
    displaced.Manyofthosedisplacedsuferedfromvari-
    ousmaladies,includingatleast700,000casesofacute
    diarrhoea,800,000casesofacuterespiratoryinfection,
    nearlyamillioncasesofskindisease,andalmost183,000
    casesofsuspectedmalaria.Flashoodsandlandslides
    triggeredbytheraincausedseveredamagetoinfrastruc-
    ture,urbansettlementsandagriculturalproduction.
    AccordingtotheWorldBankAsianDevelopmentBank
    jointdamageandneedsassessmenttheoverallrecov-
    eryandreconstructioncostassociatedwiththeoodsis
    expectedtobebetweenUS$8.74billionandUS$10.85bil-
    lion,whichincludesestimatedcostsforrelief,earlyrecov-
    eryandmediumtolong-termreconstruction.
    Source: Adapted from ADB ReliefWeb (2010) and CNN (2010).
    BOX 44.1
    The2010FloodinPakistan
    waterfromirrigation,whichispollutedwithfertilizers.
    However,thedissolvedoxygenlevelinallrivers
    remainshigherthanthethresholdvalueof5mg/l.
    Water resources management
    Atthefederallevel,theMinistryofWaterandPower
    isresponsibleforwaterandenergy-relatedissues.
    TheWaterandPowerDevelopmentAuthoritywas
    establishedin1959asagovernment-ownedpublic
    institutefortheplanning,designandimplementation
    ofirrigation,drainageandpowerprojects.
    Upto1997,thedistributionofirrigationwaterto
    farmers,thecollectionofwaterfees,andtherepair
    andmaintenanceoftheirrigationinfrastructure
    wastheresponsibilityoftheProvincialIrrigation
    Departments.However,followingagovernmental
    reform,backednanciallybytheWorldBank,to
    addressproblemsinirrigatedagricultureandwater
    management,theProvincialIrrigationDepartments
    weretransformedintonewlyestablishedautonomous
    ProvincialIrrigationandDrainageAuthorities.Asa
    partofthisreform,atthemainandbranchcanals
    level,commerciallyorientedAreaWaterBoardswere
    established.Atthesametime,theoperationand
    managementofthesystematdistributorandminor
    levelswashandedovertoindependentlyelected
    farmerorganizations.Overall,atotalof340farmer
    organizationshavebeenformed,ofwhich257have
    takenoverthemanagementofirrigationsystems.
    Theseorganizationsareresponsibleforcollecting
    watercharges,settlingwater-relateddisputes,and
    supplyingirrigationwaterequitablyandefcientlyto
    users.Whilecollectionofrevenuesincreasedinitially,it
    graduallyfellback(insomecasesbyasmuchas50%),
    becauseofthelackoftechnicalassistanceprovided
    tofarmerorganizationsbygovernmentagencies,and
    insufcientfundsbeingallocatedfortheirefcient
    functioning.Unfortunately,thissituationraises
    questionsaboutthelong-termsustainabilityoffarmer
    organizationsinPakistan.
    Conclusions
    TheIndusRiversystemisthelifebloodofPakistan.
    Itisthemajorsourceoffreshwaterthatallowsthe
    countrytothriveinanotherwisearidenvironment.
    Irrigatedagricultureistheonlywaytosecurethe
    foodproductionthatisnecessarytofeedagrowing
    population.However,thecountryisnowfacing
    criticalproblems,suchasdeterioratinginfrastructure
    thatcausessignicantlossesduringirrigationwater
    transfer,lowagriculturalproductivity,andawater
    WWDR4 825 PAKISTAN,WITHSPECIALREFERENCETOTHEINDUSRIVERBASIN
    managementsystemthatisunabletoadequately
    addressthechallengesontheground.Water-use
    projectionsshowclearlythatunderabusiness-as-
    usualscenario,waterdemandwillexceedsupplyby
    2025.Climaticvariationsandclimatechange,coupled
    withlowwaterstoragecapacity,mayfurtheraggravate
    thissituation.Consequently,itiscrucialtodevelop
    newstrategiesandpoliciesthattakeintoaccountthe
    potentialefectsofprojectedclimatechange,witha
    viewtopromotingsustainablewateruseinallsectors.
    Thiswillhelptoensurefoodsecurity,helpintheght
    againstwidespreadpoverty,andhelptoprotectthe
    environment.

    Notes
    1 CholistanDesertwascoveredasacasestudyinUnited Nations
    World Water Development Report 3(WWAP,2009),http://
    webworld.unesco.org/water/wwap/wwdr/wwdr3/case_studies/
    pdf/Case_Studies_AsiaPacic.pdf#page=13

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromthePakistan Water
    Development Report,preparedin2011byUNESCO
    IslamabadOfce(unpublished).
    ADBAPWF(AsianDevelopmentBankAsia-PacicWater
    Forum).2007.Asian Water Development Outlook 2007.
    Manila,ADB.www.adb.org/documents/books/awdo/2007/
    cr08.pdf(Accessed16June,2011.)
    ADBReliefWeb.2010.Pakistan Floods 2010: Preliminary
    Damage and Needs Assessment.Manila,ADB.http://
    reliefweb.int/node/374745(Accessed13June,2011.)
    CNN.2010Pakistanooddamageestimatedat$9.7
    billion.CNN World,14October,2010.http://articles.cnn.
    com/2010-10-14/world/pakistan.ood.cost_1_southern-
    sindh-province-malaria-cases-world-bank?_s=PM:WORLD
    (Accessed13June,2011.)
    FAOAquastat.2011a. Country Prole: Pakistan.Rome,FAO.
    http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries_regions/
    pakistan/index.stm(Accessed16June,2011.)
    .2011b.Country Fact Sheet: Pakistan.Rome,FAO.http://
    www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries_regions/index.
    stm(Accessed23July,2011.)
    IFPRI(InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute).2011.
    Threatstosecurityrelatedtofood,agriculture,andnatural
    resources:whattodo?WashingtonDC,IFPRI.http://
    www.ifpri.org/publication/threats-security-related-food-
    agriculture-and-natural-resources-what-do(Accessed
    23July,2011.)
    OCHA(UnitedNationsOfcefortheCoordinationof
    HumanitarianAfairs).2011.Pakistan Floods: Rapid
    Response Plan. September2011.Geneva,OCHA.http://
    pakresponse.info/LinkClick.aspx?leticket=1Itqe86Ja9M%3
    D&tabid=41&mid=597(Accessed12November,2011.)
    WHO/UNICEF(WorldHealthOrganizationandUnited
    NationsChildrensFund.)2010a.Estimates for the Use of
    Improved Drinking Water. JointMonitoringProgramme
    forWaterSupplyandSanitation.Geneva,Switzerlandand
    NewYork,WHOandUNICEF.http://www.wssinfo.org/
    leadmin/user_upload/resources/PAK_wat.pdf(Accessed
    23July,2011.)
    .2010b.Data and Estimates Table. JointMonitoring
    ProgrammeforWaterSupplyandSanitation.Geneva,
    SwitzerlandandNewYork,WHOandUNICEF.http://www.
    wssinfo.org/data-estimates/table/(Accessed23July,
    2011.)

    Acknowledgements JaroslavPlainer,MichalVrabec,JosefHladn
    CHAPTER 45
    Czech Republic
    Shutterstock/LianeM
    WWDR4 827 CZECHREPUBLIC
    MAP 45.1
    CzechRepublic
    Location and general characteristics
    TheCzechRepublicisaninlandcountrylocatedin
    centralEurope.ItsneighboursarePolandtothenorth-
    east,Germanytothewest,Austriatothesouth,and
    Slovakiatothesouth-east(Map45.1).Thetotalarea
    oftheCzechRepublicisaround79,000km2.In2008,
    itstotalpopulationwasapproximately10.5million.Its
    highestpointisSnka,atanaltitudeof1,604mabove
    sealevel,issituatedinthemountainsinthenorthof
    thecountry.ThelowestpointisintheLabeValley,
    wheretheLabeRiverleavestheCzechRepublic,at
    analtitudeof115mabovesealevel.Theaverageair
    temperatureofthecountryis7.5C.
    Water resources, their use and management
    Becauseofitsrelativelyhighaltitudeandclimatic
    conditions,theCzechRepublicreceivesanaverageof
    674mmofprecipitationannually.Therearemorethan
    3,600riversthathavebasinsof5km2orlarger.These
    includethesourcesofanumberofmajorEuropean
    rivers,suchastheElbe(LabeinCzech),theOder
    (OdrainCzech)andtheMorava,whichisatributary
    oftheDanube.TheElbehasthelargestbasininthe
    CzechRepublic,followedbytheMoravaandtheOder
    (Table45.1).TheseriversdischargeintotheNorthSea,
    theBlackSea,andtheBalticSea,respectively.
    Groundwaterresourcestendtobeunconned,or
    slightlyartesianincharacter,andusuallynotvery
    deepbelowthesurface.Thelargestusableaquifers
    arelocatedinthelowlands.Groundwateraccountsfor
    approximately6%oftotalavailablewater,therefore
    itsimportanceintermsofoverallwatersupplyis
    relativelylow.Becauseofitshighquality,however,
    groundwaterisfrequentlyusedasdrinkingwater.
    Thehighestdemandforsurfacewatercomesfrom
    theenergysector,mainlyforuseinthermaland
    nuclearpowerplants.Thelevelsofdemandforwater
    forindustrialuse,drinkingwaterandsanitation
    (includingsettlementsandanimalfarms)arebroadly
    comparable.Agriculturaldemandislowbecause
    cropproductionmainlydependsonrainfall.With
    theexceptionofenergyproduction,therehasbeen
    adecliningtrendinwateruseinallsectorssince
    1990(Figure45.1).Risingwaterpricesandthe
    TABLE 45.1
    Basiccharacteristicsofmajorriverbasinsinthe
    CzechRepublic
    *Morava basin at Strnice, upstream of the Dyje river
    Elbe
    basin
    Morava*
    basin
    Oder
    basin
    Extent of the
    basin (km2)
    51,410 24,109 4,715
    Average annual
    discharge (m3/s)
    309 59.6 48.1
    M
    z
    e

    h
    l
    a
    v
    a
    S

    z
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    a
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    T
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    e
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    a d
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    e

    h
    l
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    a
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    Otava
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    a d
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    u
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    a
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    a
    M
    o
    r
    a
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    a
    V
    l
    t
    a
    v
    a
    P OLAND
    GERMANY
    S LOVAKI A
    AUS TRI A
    Lipno Lipno Lipno
    Budweis Budweis
    Brno Brno
    st
    nad Labem
    st
    nad Labem
    Hradec Krlov Hradec Krlov
    Ostrava Ostrava
    Pardubice Pardubice
    Karlovy
    Vary
    Karlovy
    Vary
    Liberec Liberec
    Zln Zln
    Olomouc Olomouc
    Prague Prague
    Jihlava Jihlava
    Pilsen
    City
    Hydroelectric
    power plant
    National park
    International boundary
    Dam
    Basin
    Ramsar site
    0 60 km 20 40
    828 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA CHAPTER45
    increaseduseofadvancedtechnologyhaveboth
    contributedtothisdecline.Forexample,in2004,
    waterabstractionwasalmost35%lessthanin1991.
    Inparallel,theunitpriceofdrinkingwaterandwater
    forsanitationrosefromapproximatelyUS$0.25
    in1991toUS$3.0in2009.Asanetoutcome,
    wastewatergenerationdroppedby26%between
    1991and2004.
    WaterresourcesmanagementintheCzechRepublic
    involveslocal,regionalandnationalauthorities.At
    nationallevel,responsibilityisspreadbetweenthe
    ministriesofagriculture,theenvironment,theinterior,
    healthandtransport.Themanagementofimportant
    watercoursessuchastheVltava,theElbe,theOhe,
    theMoravaandtheOderisentrustedtotheRiver
    BasinBoardsestablishedbythegovernment.Their
    maintaskistooperateandmaintainthemajorwater
    structures,suchasdams,reservoirs,weirsandlocks.
    Inthatcontext,keylegislationincludestheWater
    Act(No.254/2001Coll.)andtheWaterSupplyand
    SewerageSystemsforPublicNeedsAct(No.274/2001
    Coll.).In2010,ActNo.150cameintoforce,amending
    theWaterLaw.Theseacts,togetherwiththeEuropean
    UnionWaterFrameworkDirective,establishedthe
    frameworkforcommunityactionintheeldofwater
    policy.
    Climate change and hydrologic extremes
    Whilethereareclimatechangescenariosforcentral
    Europe,noneofthesehasbeenabletoproduce
    reliablemodelsthatcanbeusedtopredictchangesin
    precipitationandhydrologicalconditions.Infact,there
    havebeennostatisticallysignicanttrendsavailable
    formonthlyorannualprecipitationintheCzech
    Republicsince1961(EEA,2011).
    Floodsarefrequent,butarenotaregular
    phenomenon.Intheperiodfrom1990to2010,their
    frequencyincreasedsomewhat,andtheoodsin
    1997and2002wereamongthemostseriousinthe
    countryshistory.Thereisacomprehensivemechanism
    inplaceforoodprevention,emergencyresponse,and
    protection,whichinvolveslocal,regional,andnational
    authorities.TheCentralFloodProtectionCommittee,
    whichoperatesatthehighestlevel,isappointedby
    thegovernment.InlinewiththeEUFloodDirective
    (2007/60/EU),theCzechRepublicisincompliance
    withtherequirementsofoodriskassessment.This
    isaprocessinwhichthecountryhasdrawnonits
    experienceandpreviousknowledgeintheeldof
    naturaldisasterrelatedriskmanagement.
    DroughtalsooccursinfrequentlyintheCzechRepublic.
    Shortperiodsofdroughtoccurmostlyinthesecond
    FIGURE 45.1
    SurfacewaterabstractionintheCzechRepublicbetween1980and2009
    0
    200
    400
    600
    800
    1000
    1200
    1400
    1
    9
    8
    0

    1
    9
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    1
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    1
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    6

    1
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    1
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    1
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    1
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    2
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    2
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    2
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    2
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    8

    W
    a
    t
    e
    r

    u
    s
    e

    (
    i
    n

    m
    i
    l
    l
    i
    o
    n

    m
    3
    )

    Energy
    Industry
    Municipal
    (Watersupply
    andsanitation)
    Agriculture
    Otheruses
    2
    0
    1
    0

    WWDR4 829 CZECHREPUBLIC


    halfofthevegetationseason.Theworstdroughtin
    thetwentiethcenturywasin1947,whentherecorded
    rainfalldecitinBohemiaduringthevegetationperiod
    reachedalmost45%ofthelong-termaverage.Within
    thelast135years,therehavebeenvevegetation
    seasonswithsimilarrainfalldecits.
    Water and the environment
    Waterusedinindustryandfortheproductionof
    electricityisreturnedalmostentirelytotherivers.
    However,dischargedwateristhermallypolluted
    (thatis,itiswarmerthantheambienttemperature
    ofnormalwaterbodies).Suchelevatedwater
    temperaturemaycausevariationsindissolved
    oxygenlevels,whichadverselyafectsecosystems.
    Theinuenceofothertypesofindustryparticularly
    chemical,pulp-paper,andsteelfactoriesonwater
    qualitywassignicantinthepastbecauseofthe
    absenceofwastewatertreatmentsystems.However,
    inthe1970s,waterqualitybegantoimprovegradually,
    asaresultofrestrictionsonindustrialwastewater
    dischargeandtheintroductionofadvancedtreatment
    technologies.In1971,theproportionofpollution
    causedbyindustrywasapproximately57%or
    79,400tonnes
    1
    .By1990,thisproportionhaddropped
    toalmost30%orapproximately49,000tonnes.
    Fromthe1950s,growthinagricultureandthe
    increaseduseoffertilizers,insecticidesandherbicides
    causedsoilandwaterpollution.Followingthepolitical
    changesthattookplacein1989,agriculturalpolicies
    thathadbeenpartoftheformersocialistregimes
    plannedeconomywereabandoned.Agricultural
    modernization,aswellastheprivatizationand
    restitutionofproperty,ledtoreducedwaterdemand
    fromtheagriculturesector.Overall,agricultural
    productionhasdroppedbyabout30%.Further
    developmentofagriculturehasbeenafectedbythe
    CzechRepublicsmembershipoftheEuropeanUnion
    (EU).Asacombinedresultofthesechanges,theuse
    ofarticialfertilizershasbeendropping.
    Alongsidethesocialandpoliticalchangesof1989,
    theprinciplesofenvironmentalprotectionhavebeen
    introducedandimplementedrigorously.TheNatureand
    LandscapeAct(No.114)cameintoforcein1992,andthe
    ProgrammeforRevitalizationoftheRiverSystemswas
    introducedthesameyear.TheCzechRepublicjoinedthe
    EUin2004,andsincethenhasbeenboundbytheEU
    WaterFrameworkDirective.Thishasalsocontributedto
    anoverallimprovementinenvironmentalconditions.
    Conclusions
    Apartfromlocalshortages,theavailabilityofwater
    resourcesissufcientintheCzechRepublic.Inthe
    1960sand1970s,waterqualitydeterioratedrapidly
    asaresultofboomingwaterdemandanddischarges
    ofwastewaterfromindustry,agricultureandhuman
    settlements.However,politicalreformsinitiatedin
    the1990sbegantoreducethatdemand,andthe
    associatedpollution.Thispositivetrendgainedfurther
    momentumfollowingEUaccession.Thenational
    watermanagementpolicyreectsthetopprioritiesof
    thecountry:sustainablemanagementoffreshwater
    resourcesandtheprotectionofecosystems.Czech
    Republicisnowworkingtowardsmeetingthetargets
    oftheEUWaterFrameworkDirective.

    Notes
    1 ThismeasurementindicatesthecorrespondingBOD
    5
    value.
    BOD
    5
    isanindexusedtoassessaquaticorganicpollutionand
    commonlyusedtomonitororganicloadforenvironmentaland
    processcontrolinindustry.

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheCzechRepublic
    CaseStudyReport,Water and Water Resources in
    the Czech Republic,preparedin2010bytheCzech
    NationalCommitteefortheInternationalHydrological
    ProgrammeofUNESCO(forthcoming).
    EEA(EuropeanEnvironmentAgency).2011.Czech Republic:
    Climate Change Mitigation.http://www.eea.europa.eu/soer/
    countries/cz/soertopic_view?topic=climate%20change
    (Accessed,25November2011.)

    Acknowledgements MarseilleProvenceMtropole
    WaterandSanitationAgency
    CHAPTER 46
    Marseille Provence Mtropole
    Urban Community, France
    Shutterstock/GiancarloLiguori
    WWDR4 831 MARSEILLEPROVENCEMTROPOLEURBANCOMMUNITY,FRANCE
    MAP 46.1
    MarseilleProvenceMtropoleUrbanCommunity
    Location and general characteristics
    TheMarseilleProvenceMtropole(MPM)Urban
    Communitywascreatedin2000andishometo
    approximatelyonemillioninhabitants.TheMPMis
    locatedintheProvence-Alpes-CtedAzurregion
    ofFranceontheshoresoftheMediterraneanSea.
    Itcoversasurfaceareaof607km2,comprising
    thecityofMarseilleandeighteenmunicipalities,
    concentrating23%oftheregionspopulationonjust
    over2%ofitsterritory(Map46.1).Marseillealone,
    Francessecond-largestcityafterParis,extendsover
    anareaof240km2.
    TheMPMliesinthetemperatezoneandhasa
    Mediterraneanclimate.Averageannualrainfallis
    around550mm,whichisconcentratedintoaperiod
    ofapproximately80days,mostlyinthespringand
    autumnmonthsasviolent,localizedprecipitation.The
    areaissubjecttosummerdroughts.
    Water resources, their management and
    sanitation
    TheregionalproverbEici, laigo es dor(here,wateris
    gold)clearlyillustratestheshortageoftheresource.
    Infact,thelackofwater,andthehealthconsequences
    thatunderliethis,havebeentheprincipalcauseof
    severeepidemicsinthepast,suchastheoutbreaks
    ofbubonicplaguein1347and1720,andthecholera
    epidemicsin1834and1884allofwhichresultedin
    signicantnumbersofdeaths.
    Toalleviatewaterscarcity,adiversioncanal,locally
    knownasCanaldeMarseille,wasbegunin1838to
    transfertheowoftheDuranceRivertothecityof
    Marseille.Today,themainarteryofthecanalis
    97kmlonganditsminorarteriesextendover195
    km.Thecanalsystemcomprisestwodams,anumber
    ofundergroundcanalsandtwentyaqueducts.The
    capacityofthecanalhasalmosttripledsincethe
    middleofthenineteenth

    century,from5.75m3/sto15
    m3/salthoughtheowvariesdependingonseasonal
    conditionsandonanallocationagreementbetween
    theCityofMarseilleandthenationalutilitycompany,
    ElectricitdeFrance.
    Onaverage,thecanalprovides193millionm3ofwater
    peryearto1.2millioninhabitantsin36municipalities.
    Today,thecanalaccountsfortwo-thirdsofthewater
    broughttoMarseille,withtherestcomingfrom
    theVerdonRiverthroughtheCanaldeProvence.
    Undergroundwaterresourcesarealsousedinthe
    MPMtoincreasewateravailabilityinMarseilleand
    toprovidedrinkingwatertothetownsofAubagne
    andGemenos.Asaresult,protectionzonesarebeing
    establishedtominimizetheriskofpollutionofsurface
    waterandgroundwaterresources,includingthe
    networkoftheCanaldeMarseille.
    AnnualwaterconsumptionintheMPMisabout100
    millionm3,95%ofwhichisprocessedinwastewater
    treatmentplantsbeforebeingreleasedbackintothe
    C
    a
    n
    a
    l

    d
    e

    M
    a
    r
    s
    e
    ille
    C
    a
    n
    a
    l

    d
    e

    P
    r
    o
    v
    e
    n
    c
    e
    Marseille
    Berre
    Lagoon
    10 km
    The Calanques
    MEDI TERRANEAN
    SEA
    City
    National park
    MPM
    Protected area
    F RANCE
    832 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA CHAPTER46
    environment.Since1942,Marseilleswatersupplyhas
    beenmanagedbytheSocitdesEauxdeMarseille.
    ThishasincludedtheoperationoftheCanalde
    Marseille,aswellastheproductionanddistributionof
    drinkingwater.TheSocietedesEauxdeMarseille,a
    privatecompany,alsomanageswatersupplyin15of
    theMPMsmunicipalities.Marseillesrstlarge-scale
    sewersystem,thecombinedlengthofwhichis346
    km,wascompletedin1896.Thesewernetworkhas
    beenextended,improvedandmodernizedoverthe
    pasthundredyears.
    Therstphysico-chemicaltreatmentplantwas
    putintoservicein1987.In2008,theMPMUrban
    Communitycompletedtheconstructionofoneof
    theworldslargestundergroundbiologicaltreatment
    facilitiesaninvestmentofsomeUS$270million.
    Since1981,themanagementoftheCityofMarseilles
    sanitationsystem(sewageandstorm-water)hasbeen
    delegatedtoaprivatecompany.Inseventeenofthe
    otherMPMmunicipalities,sanitationservicesarealso
    almostexclusivelyprovidedbyprivatecompanieson
    anoperationandmaintenancebasis.
    Toensurethatthewatersupplyissecure,potential
    risksareconstantlybeingevaluatedtoprevent,
    forexample,accidentalpollutionandfailureinthe
    puricationplantsordistributionnetwork.Such
    studieshaveprovidedthebasisofpreparationofa
    ve-yearwaterplan.TheplanissubmittedtotheMPM
    UrbanCommunity'selectedrepresentatives,who
    selecttheprojectsthataretobecarriedout.Therst
    MPMplanwasapprovedin2006,andrepresentedan
    investmentofUS$165million.Thegoalofthisplan
    wastoidentifytheweaknessesoftheregionsdrinking
    watersupplysystemandhelptorectifythem.Some
    85%oftheanalysissectionofthisplanwasachieved,
    and65%oftheprojectimplementationwascompleted
    bytheendof2010.TheMPMUrbanCommunityisnow
    preparingasecondve-yearplan,thistimewiththe
    objectiveofensuringwatersecurityforallthemember
    municipalities.Thebudgetforthenewplanhasnotyet
    beenestablished.
    Climate change and risk management
    Althoughwaterresourcesarelimited,occasional
    heavyrainfallintheautumnandwintermaycause
    severeoods.TheDuranceRiverinparticularhas
    causedfrequentandviolentoods.Similarly,intense
    precipitationcausesoodsinMarseille.Toaddress
    thesechallenges,theMPM,onbehalfoftheCityof
    Marseille,hasintroducedastrategythatcombines
    regulatoryarrangementsandcrisismanagement.
    Otherdevelopmentstoohavehelpedtomitigate
    climatechangeefectsanextensivehydrographic
    networkwithsensorstransmittingdatainrealtime,
    riverchannelimprovementsandtheconstruction
    ofoodcontrolreservoirs.Currently,theretention
    capacityofthereservoirsinMarseilleis130,000m3
    andtheMPMUrbanCommunityisstudyingthe
    feasibilityofconstructing27moretoprovidean
    additionalstorageof200,000m3.
    Intheeldofriskmanagement,raisingpublic
    awarenessandinvolvinglocalresidentsarehigh
    priorities.Forexample,inthedistrictofSaintLoup,an
    SMS-basedinformationsystemwassetupfollowing
    themudslidesin2009.Thisistoinformresidentsof
    hazardoussituationsasquicklyaspossibleandtomake
    themanintegralpartofcivilsecurityoperations.
    Whileanalysisofhydrometeorologicaldatagathered
    bytheMPMUrbanCommunitydoesnotshowany
    specictrendthatpointstoclimatechange,thelikely
    consequencesofclimatechangesuchasrisesinsea
    levelsandtheacceleratedmeltingofthesnowandice
    thatfeedtheriversbringingwatertotheMPMcould
    beserious.Swollenriverscouldoodbecausethe
    storagecapacityofreservoirsmightnotbesufcient
    toregulatehigherowrates,andrisingsealevels
    couldcauseseawaterintrusionintocoastalaquifers
    andsewersystemweirs.Recentstudiespointoutthe
    needtoidentifyoodproneareasandadaptwater
    workstobeabletomitigatetheefectsofapotential
    changeinrainfallregime.Ontheotherhand,the
    oodingofcoastalsettlementsislesslikelybecauseof
    Marseillestopography.
    Environmental protection and use of
    modern technology
    Environmentalprotectionandtheoptimizationof
    wateruseisapermanentpriorityfortheMPMUrban
    Community.Consequently,thefollowingmeasureshas
    beentaken:
    UnusedwaterintheCanaldeMarseilleisnow
    returnedtotheenvironment;
    Inspectionstodetectinfrastructureleaksarecarried
    outperiodically;
    Out-datedleadconnectionshavebeenchanged;
    Thesewernetworkismaintainedregularly;and
    Street-cleaningvehiclesarespeciallydesignedto
    minimizewateruse.
    WWDR4 833 MARSEILLEPROVENCEMTROPOLEURBANCOMMUNITY,FRANCE
    Asaresult,averageannualwateruseintheMPM
    hasremainedrelativelystableovertheyears
    (Figure46.1).TheMPMUrbanCommunityalsodeals
    withwastewatermanagementthroughoperating
    2,525kmofseweragenetworksand10wastewater
    treatmentplants.Moreover,itmonitorstheimpactthat
    dischargeshaveonthemarineenvironment.
    Drinkingwaterproductionandwastewatertreatment
    plantsintheMPMareupgradedregularlyinlinewith
    regulatoryrequirementsandtechnologicaladvances
    (Box46.1).Forexample,thedrinkingwaterproduction
    plantatSainteMarthe,whichwasbuiltin1934,still
    complieswithcurrentstandards.Inaddition,thesewage
    treatmentplantatEnsus-la-Redonnehasbeenusing
    advancedbio-reactortechnologysince2009.However,
    inspiteofthesophisticatedtechnologyutilized,treated
    wastewaterisnotre-usedintheMPMbecauseof
    potentialenvironmentalandsanitaryrisks.
    Allmajormodernizationprojectsaswellasmaintenance
    operationsaresubjecttopublicconsultation.These
    aresubmittedforapprovaltotheRegionalCommittee
    fortheEnvironmentandtotheregionalandnational
    commissionsthatoverseesiteswitharecognized
    natural,ecologicalorculturalvalue.Thiscanleadto
    changesintheproposedprojects.Forexample,a
    projecttomodernizethesludgefacilityoftheMarseille
    wastewatertreatmentplant,whichislocatedininthe
    FIGURE 46.1
    EvolutionofwaterconsumptionintheMPMfrom1995to2009
    Asapartofitsenvironmentallyconsciousapproach,
    varioussourcesofrenewableenergyareusedtoreduce
    emissionsintheMPM.Forexample,theSainteMarthe
    drinkingwaterplantisequippedwithaturbinethat
    generatesenoughelectricityforthefacilitytobeself-
    sufcient
    i
    .AnotherturbinewasinstalledontheBatarelle
    main,downstreamoftheVallonDolreservoir
    ii
    .The
    Marseillewastewatertreatmentplantusesthermophile
    anaerobicdigestiontoproducemethanethatisusedin
    theplantforthermalprocesses,or,wheneconomically
    feasible,toproduceelectricity
    iii
    .
    TheMPMUrbanCommunityisalsostudyingthe
    possibilityofcapturingtheenergythatiscontainedin
    wastewaterthroughtheinstallationofheatexchangers.
    Implementationoftheseinnovativemethodsisbeing
    prioritizedintheconstructionofnewinfrastructureor
    inmodernizingthecurrentsewernetwork.Thesitesare
    selectedaccordingtotheirpotentialintermsofconnected
    populationequivalent(PE)
    iv
    .
    i
    Mean annual electricity production at Sainte Marthe:
    3 million kWh or 266 TOE
    ii
    Mean annual electricity production at Batarelle:
    820,000 kWh or 70 TOE
    iii
    Production of biogas in the sludge treatment plant:
    10 million Nm
    3
    in 2010, or 6300 TOE.
    iv
    PE is an estimation of the organic biodegradable load that will
    be entering a treatment plant. Thus, it is an estimate of the
    usage of sewage facilities and not a measure of population.
    BOX 46.1
    TheuseofrenewableenergyintheMPM
    85
    90
    95
    100
    105
    1
    9
    9
    5

    1
    9
    9
    7

    1
    9
    9
    9

    2
    0
    0
    1

    2
    0
    0
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    2
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    5

    2
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    2
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    9

    W
    a
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    r

    c
    o
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    s
    u
    m
    p
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    n

    (
    i
    n

    m
    i
    l
    l
    i
    o
    n

    m
    3
    )

    Annualconsumption Averageannualconsumption
    834 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA CHAPTER46
    classiedsiteoftheCalanques,hadtobemodiedto
    adapttothebiologicalcharacteristicsofthelocalora
    andfauna.
    Toensureenvironmentalow,theMPMUrban
    CommunityagreedtoallocatewaterfromtheCanal
    deMarseilletocompensateforlowwaterlevelsin
    riverssuchastheArcandtheTouloubre,following
    discussionswithlocalstakeholdersandrepresentatives
    ofrelevantgovernmentalorganizations.

    Conclusions
    TheMarseilleProvenceMtropole(MPM)ishometo
    alargeurbancommunityinaregionwherewater
    isratherlimited.Localefortstosecurefreshwater
    resourcesandpropersanitationinfrastructurebegan
    morethanacenturyago.Theambitiousprojectsthat
    havebeencarriedoutsincehaveallowedthepeople
    intheregiontoenjoyhighlivingstandards,freeofthe
    diseasesthatprevailedinthepast.Thecanals(Canal
    deMarseilleandCanaldeProvence),inconjunction
    withgroundwaterresources,provideasufcient
    quantityofwatertomeetthegrowingdemand.The
    challengeistominimizetheenvironmentalfootprint
    ofthisurbanconglomerate,whichhasapproximately
    onemillioninhabitants.Useofmoderntechnology,
    theintroductionofinnovativeapproaches,andthe
    handlingofoperationandmaintenancebytheprivate
    sectormakestheMPMUrbanCommunitycondentof
    itsabilitytoovercomethedifcultiesitfaces.

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheMarseille
    ProvenceMtropoleUrbanCommunity(MPM)Case
    StudyReport,Managing Water and its Risks, from
    Mountain to Sea,preparedin2011bytheWaterand
    SanitationAgencyoftheMarseilleProvenceMtropole
    UrbanCommunity(forthcoming).

    Acknowledgements GiorgioCesari,RemoPelillo,GiorgioPineschi,GiuseppeBortone,
    KatiaRafaelli,MaurizioBaudone,FrancescaCaparrini,EnzoDiCarlo,SergioPaderi,
    RanieroDeFilippis,LucaFegatelli,MauroLasagna,AngeloViterbo,NicolaBerni,Mario
    Smargiasso,EmidioPrimavera,SabrinaDiGiuseppe,TizianaDiLorenzo
    CHAPTER 47
    Tiber River basin, Italy
    Shutterstock/DmitryAgafontsev
    836 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA CHAPTER47
    MAP 47.1
    TiberRiverbasinandCentralApenninesDistrict
    Location and general characteristics
    TheTiberRiverbeginstheinthenorthernpartofthe
    ApennineMountainsinItalyandtravelsabout400km
    beforedrainingintotheTyrrhenianSea(Map47.1).The
    riverrunsthroughtheItaliancapital,Rome.TheTiber
    Riverbasincoversanareaofabout17,500km2,which
    crossessixadministrativeregions.Almost90%ofthe
    basinliesintheregionsofUmbriaandLazio,andthe
    remainderfallswithintheregionsofEmiliaRomagna,
    Tuscany,MarcheandAbruzzo.Thebasinliesfullyinthe
    CentralApenninesDistrict,whichincludesalltheregions
    ofthebasinandItalysnewestregion,Molise(Table47.1).
    TheTiberRiverbasinhasapproximately4.7million
    inhabitants(2009),some60%ofwhomliveinRome.
    Overall,83%ofthepopulationiscomposedofurban
    dwellers.Thetopographyofthebasinvariesfrom
    lowlandstohighlandsandismainlycharacterizedby
    atemperateclimatewithhot,drysummersandcool,
    wetwinters.ThehighestprecipitationinboththeTiber
    RiverbasinandtheCentralApenninesDistrictisusually
    recordedintheautumnandspring,withapeakinearly
    winterandadryseasonduringthesummer.
    Water resources availability and their use
    TheannualaveragedischargeoftheTiberRiverinto
    theTyrrhenianSeais225m3/sorapproximately
    7billionm3(calculatedonalong-termaverage)
    (Cesari,2010).Dependingonthehydrologic
    conditions,themaximumdischargecanexceed
    1500m3/sorcanbeaslowas60m3/s.Groundwater
    availabilityinthebasinisabout3.5billionm3.
    WiththeexceptionoftheEmiliaRomagnaregion,
    thebasinanditsimmediatesurroundingsaremainly
    characterizedbysmallfarms(Table47.2).Irrigationis
    practisedthroughsprinklers,dripsystemsandcanals
    overacombinedareaof2,100km2,whichcorresponds
    toapproximately8%ofagriculturallandintheve
    regions.Themostcommonlycultivatedproductsare
    fruitandvegetables(suchascerealsandpotato)and
    tobacco.
    Theterritoryisnotveryindustrialized.However,
    thereareimportantsteelworksinTerniandbeverage,
    tobacco,agro-processingandpaperfactoriesin
    thebasin.Sincethe1990s,industrialactivityhas
    beenreducinggradually,andtheservicessectorhas
    becomethemaincontributortotheregionsgross
    domesticproduct(GDP)(Table47.3).
    InthelargelyruralEmiliaRomagnaregion,agriculture
    isthesectorwiththehighestwaterdemand,followed
    bymunicipaluseandindustry.Infact,irrigation
    accountsfor66%ofoverallwaterconsumption.Inother
    regions,agriculturalwaterdemandisrelativelylow.
    However,generallyspeaking,allregionsare
    implementingvariousprojectstoimprovewater
    I TALY
    TYRRHENI AN
    SEA
    ADRI ATI C
    S EA
    Rome
    0 40 80 120 160 200 km
    City
    Central Appennines District
    Basin
    Ramsar site
    National park
    Hydroelectric
    power plant
    meeee


    T
    e
    n
    n
    a
    N
    e
    r
    a

    V
    o
    m
    ana
    T
    ro
    n
    to
    T
    i
    b
    e
    r
    T
    i
    b
    e
    r
    T
    i
    b
    e
    r
    Perugia
    Lake
    Trasimeno
    Lake
    Bolsena
    Lake
    Vico
    Lake
    Lake
    Bracciano
    Campotosto
    WWDR4 837 TIBERRIVERBASIN,ITALY
    TABLE 47.2
    Basicregionalstatisticsaboutagriculturallanduse(2007)
    TABLE 47.1
    ExtentofregionsanddistributionoftheTiberRiverbasin
    Region Proportion of national
    territory (%)
    Proportion of Central
    Apennines District (%)
    Proportion of Tiber River
    basin (%)
    EmiliaRomagna 7.45 0.08 0.1
    Tuscany 7.63 3.46 6.7
    Umbria 2.81 22.37 46.8
    Marche 3.11 12.17 1.2
    Abruzzo 3.57 25.31 3.7
    Lazio 5.72 36.26 41.5
    Molise 1.47 0.36 -
    Region Average land holding size
    (km2)
    Irrigated area
    (km2)
    Cultivated area
    (km2)
    Irrigated/cultivated area
    (%)
    EmiliaRomagna 1.28 2,966 10,525 28.20
    Tuscany 0.10 472 8,064 5.90
    Umbria 0.09 244 3,394 7.20
    Marche 0.10 245 4,964 4.90
    Lazio 0.07 861 6,740 12.80
    Abruzzo 0.07 345 4,340 8.00
    TABLE 47.3
    ContributionofvarioussectorstoGDPatthenational,CentralApenninesDistrictandTiberRiverbasinlevels
    Sector/Region Italy Central Apennines
    District
    Tiber River
    basin
    Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 2.5% 2.0% 1.7%
    Industry 27.2% 22.0% 19.8%
    Services 70.3% 76.0% 78.5%
    demandmanagementandtoreduceseasonalwater
    decits.UmbriaandTuscanyhavefacilitatedaccess
    toinformationbydevelopingdatabasesonwater
    usethatarelinkedtoonlineportals.Similarly,Emilia
    RomagnaintroducedanIrrinetservicetoreduce
    waterconsumptioninagriculture,andhasachieved
    successfulresults(Box47.1).Thisregionhasalsohad
    itssuccessesinthemunicipalsector,witha7%dropin
    waterusebetween2002and2006.Umbriaisaiming
    toincreasepublicawarenessoftheneedtoreduce
    waterconsumptionandhasmadeimprovementstoits
    infrastructuretominimizewaterlossfromthenetwork.

    In2005,Romesmunicipalwaterrequirementwas
    approximately450millionm3,andintherestofthe
    TiberRiverbasinitwasabout80millionm3.Thesame
    838 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA CHAPTER47
    year,waterusefordrinkingandsanitationinthewider
    CentralApenninesDistrictwasaround1.2billionm3,
    90%ofwhichwaswithdrawnfromspringsand
    aquifers.Ingeneral,asignicantincreaseinwateruse
    isnotexpectedandthereareplanstoreducewater
    consumptionbyasmuchas8%by2015.
    IntheCentralApenninesDistrict,thereare
    approximately40dams,over30ofwhichare
    hydroelectricpowerplants(HEPP)withaninstalled
    capacityof1,400MW.HEPPsintheTRBaremainly
    concentratedontheTiberandNeraRivers.About
    8%ofnationalelectricityproductioncomesfrom
    hydropowerintheregion,andalmostallthe
    powerthatisproducedisconsumedlocally.While
    hydropowergenerationisanon-consumptive
    wateruse,itrequiresabout40billionm3peryear,
    andthereforeaddstothecompetitionfromother
    sectors.Althoughareductionintheproductionof
    hydroelectricitycouldincreasewateravailabilityfor
    otherwaterusers,itwouldhaveanegativeimpacton
    thenationaltargetofproducing20%ofenergyfrom
    renewableresources(Cesarietal.,2010).
    Climatic variability, climate change and risk
    management
    TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange
    (IPCC)predictsthattheMediterraneanregionin
    generalwillsuferfromareductioninwaterresources
    availability.Inaddition,themostsevereclimate
    changescenariosforcentralItalywherea6Cto
    8Cincreaseintemperatureisforecastby2080
    TheIrrinetproject,whichaimstoreduceirrigationalwateruse,isaninitiativeofEmiliaRomagnaregionandpart
    ofthe20072013RuralDevelopmentProgramme.TheIrrinetserviceisfreelyavailableontheinternetandprovides
    irrigationaladviceusingdatafromtheRegionalAgencyforEnvironmentalProtection(AgenziaRegionaleperlaProtezione
    DellAmbienteARPA),theregionsgeologic,seismicandsoilservice,andtheexperimentalactivitiesoftheconsortiumof
    theCanaleEmilianoRomagnolo.
    Basedontheirgeographicallocation,itispossibletoindicatetofarmerswhentoirrigateandhowmuchinordertoachieve
    thehighestproductivity.IthasbeenestimatedthattheIrrinetservicehashelpedtosaveabout50millionm3ofwater
    between2006and2007.Since2009,IrrinethasevolvedintoIrrinetPlus,whichprovidesfarmerswithfurtherinformation
    specifyingtheeconomicbenetsassociatedwithaparticularirrigationroutinethatusesanintuitiveadvisorysystem.
    Thisprojectprovidesinstitutionswithapracticalinstrumentformanagingthewaterdemandforirrigationandhelping
    farmerstousetherightamountofwatertominimizetheriskofoveruse.Also,institutionscanmonitortheirrigationalwater
    consumption,thusfacilitatingwaterrationingespeciallyindroughtperiods.
    BOX 47.1
    Developingknowledgeandcapacity:IrrinetandIrrinetplus
    foreseeadecreasingtrendinrainfallthroughoutthe
    year,mostnotablybetweenOctoberandAprilwhere
    precipitationcoulddropbyasmuchas50%.
    Thesepredictionsarepartiallyconrmedby
    measurements.Datacollectedbetween1952and
    2007showaconsistenttrendofgraduallydecreasing
    annualprecipitation(mainlyinwinter,withfallsofup
    to30%)withrisingsurfacetemperatures.Throughout
    theTRB,theamountofprecipitationhasdecreased
    by2billionm3inthesameperiod.Whiletherehave
    beenexceptionallydryyears(2007)andexceptionally
    wetyears(2008),theTiberRiverbasin,ingeneral,
    hasexperiencedprolongeddryperiods.Infact,major
    droughteventsthatafectedtheentirebasinoccurred
    in1955,1971,1987,1990,1993,2003and2007.The
    droughtsattheturnofthetwenty-rstcenturydid
    notgetmuchattentionfromthepointofviewof
    waterscarcity.Instead,whatwerehighlightedwere
    theweaknessesinsupplysystemsincludingpoor
    exibilityintheoperationofreservoirsandthelack
    ofintegratedmanagement.
    FloodsareusualalongtheTiberRiver.Therewere
    frequentoodsintherstdecadeofthemillennium,
    fortunatelynoneofthemwasamajoreventandlosses
    wereeconomicinnature.
    Becauseclimatechangeisexpectedtoexacerbate
    droughtsandoods,therearepoliciesandstructural
    measuresinplaceinItalyandthroughouttheTiber
    Riverbasintodealwithdisastermitigationanddisaster
    WWDR4 839 TIBERRIVERBASIN,ITALY
    preparedness.Forexample,atnationallevel,theLocal
    ActionProgrammeusesmeteorologicalandagro-
    meteorologicalindicatorstohighlightrisksrelatedto
    droughtanddeserticationthatcouldhaveanimpact
    onagriculture,theenvironmentandsocietyingeneral.
    IntheEmiliaRomagnaregion,460additionalsmall
    reservoirswerebuiltaftertheProgrammeidentied
    thattherewasinsufcientcapacitytomeetagricultural
    waterdemandindryperiodsduringthesummer.The
    nationalcivilprotectionservicerunssimulationsto
    forecastwaterrequirementsunderdiferentclimate
    scenariosandissuesdroughtalerts.Regionsarealso
    cooperatingtoalleviateseasonalwatershortages.For
    instance,inTuscanyandUmbria,extensivestudieson
    watersharingledtoanagreementbetweentheregions
    forthejointuseoftheMontedoglioreservoir,whichis
    locatedintheupperTiberRiverbasin.
    Floodmanagementisensuredthroughnational
    directivesthatincludeearlywarningsystems,and
    thereareregionalofcestoimplementthenecessary
    measures.LegislativeDecree49,whichcameinto
    forcein2010,transposedtheEUFloodsDirective
    (2007/60)intonationallaw.Infact,theTiberRiver
    BasinAuthorityhadanticipatedthecontentsofthe
    EUdirectiveandhadalreadydevelopedaplanning
    tool(inlinewithLaw183/89onsoilprotection)for
    theidenticationofood-proneareasandthelevel
    ofriskexposure.However,twomainrequirements
    oftheFloodsDirectiveremaintobeimplementedin
    theCentralApenninesDistrict:publicparticipation
    intheplanningprocessandtheeconomicanalysis
    anddevelopmentofcivilprotectionplans.Regarding
    publicinvolvement,theTiberRiverBasinAuthority
    participatedintheEUprojectintegrativeood
    riskgovernanceapproachforimprovementofrisk
    awarenessandincreasedpublicparticipation(IMRA)
    todevelopamethodofriskcommunicationand
    participationinlocalcommunitiesthatarelocatedin
    ood-riskareas.
    Policy framework and decision-making
    Atnationallevel,the1933ItalianRoyalDecree
    recognizedwaterresourcesasapublicgood.In1989,
    Law183establishedmajorbasinauthoritiesand
    identiedtheriverbasinasthebasicunitforwater
    resourcesmanagement,waterpollutioncontroland
    soilprotectionactivities.In1994,Law36introduced
    areformunderwhichmunicipalutilitieswere
    aggregatedintoOptimalTerritorialAreaswhichare
    responsibleforthemanagementandsupplyofwater
    servicessuchaswastewatertreatment,sanitationand
    theprovisionofdrinkingwater.
    LegislativeDecree152wasintroducedin1999to
    protectwaterresourcesbypreventingandreducing
    pollution,andimprovingwaterquality.ThisDecree
    delegatedcertainresponsibilitiestotheregions.
    Accordingly,eachregionhadtherighttomakeits
    ownlaws,andsharedtheresponsibilityforlocal
    implementationwiththeprovinces(sub-unitsofthe
    regions).In2006,LegislativeDecree152incorporated
    thecontentsoftheEUWaterFrameworkDirective
    andreplacedthe1999LegislativeDecree152.The
    newdecreesetoutforthecreationofaCentral
    ApenninesDistrictAuthority,withseveralministries
    (Environment,InfrastructureandTransport,Economic
    Development,CulturalHeritage,Agriculture,Civil
    FunctionandCivilProtection)andregions(Emilia
    Romagna,Tuscany,Umbria,Marche,Lazio,Abruzzo
    andMolise)asmembers.AlthoughtheCentral
    ApenninesDistrictAuthorityremainstobeestablished,
    someofitsfunctions(suchasthecoordination
    andimplementationofthedistrictRiverBasin
    ManagementPlans)havebeentemporarilyassigned
    totheriverbasinauthoritiesincludingtheTiberRiver
    BasinAuthority.Asanongoingprocess,withthefull
    implementationoftheEUWaterFrameworkDirective
    andFloodsDirective,CADAwilltakeoverastheTRBA
    willmergeintothisAuthority.
    Theregionalgovernmentshaveadoptedstrategiesto
    reversethecurrenttrendofenvironmentaldegradation
    andtointegratesustainabledevelopmentprinciplesinto
    theirworkprogrammes.Thesestrategies,whichforma
    partoftheCentralApenninesDistrictManagementPlan
    (PianodiGestionedelDistrettodellAppenninoCentrale)
    aredenedbytheRegionalPlanforWaterProtection
    (PianoRegionalediTuteladelleAcque)andidentify
    bothquality-relatedandquantity-relatedmeasures
    thatmakeupaholisticapproach.Theregionshave
    alsodevelopedotherstrategiestoaddressmattersnot
    includedinthewaterprotectionplan,includingnatural
    disasterriskmanagement,agriculturaldevelopment,
    environmentalprotection,andenergyproductionfrom
    renewableresources.
    Acomprehensiveapproachinvolvingtheclose
    interactionofdistrictandregionalauthoritiesis
    followedtopreventpollutionandtoprotectwater
    resources.Itistheresponsibilityofthedistrict
    authoritytobalancewateravailabilitywithwater
    840 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA CHAPTER47
    demand.Todothis,itdenesappropriategoalsand
    priorities.Theregionsthendenetheactionsthat
    arenecessarytoachievethosetargets,including
    recoveringthecostofwatersupplyandsanitation
    services.Thedistrictauthorityauditstheseactions
    toensurecompliancewiththegoalsandpriorities.
    Oncetheactionsareapproved,theregionsadoptand
    implementtheRegionalPlanforWaterProtection.
    Intermsofwaterresourcesmanagement,regional
    governmentsplanforandmanagetheservicesthat
    areprovided.Forirrigationpurposes,eachdistricts
    ruraldevelopmentplanistakenasbasisforhelping
    toimproveirrigationnetworks,wastewatertreatment
    plantsandaqueducts.Forelectricitygeneration,
    regionalgovernmentsprepareplanstodevelop
    renewableenergysources,andidentifytheareasthat
    aremostsuitablefortheconstructionofhydroelectric
    powerplants.
    Water and the environment
    Theheavyanduncontrolledexploitationofsurface
    waterandgroundwaterresourceshashadanegative
    impactonwaterqualityinthebasin.Fertilizersused
    inagriculturealongwithmunicipalandindustrial
    pollutionhavealladdedtoenvironmentaldegradation.
    In2010,61%ofriversand69%oflakesintheTIber
    basinwereassessedtobeofsufcientqualityor
    higher.Butduringthesummer,whenthereislittlerain
    anddemandforwaterpeaks,theowofthesome
    streamsissustainedmainlybywastewaterreturns.The
    RegionalPlanforWaterProtectionaimstoaddress
    environmentalandwater-qualityrelatedproblems
    byholdingopendiscussionswiththeparticipationof
    allstakeholdersinaneforttoidentifyappropriate
    actions.Furthermore,theCentralApenninesDistrict
    managementplanemphasisesEUDirective42/2001
    onstrategicenvironmentalassessmentregardingthe
    maindriversofwaterconsumptionandpollution,
    suchasagriculture,industry,hydropoweranddrinking
    water.
    Thecentralandregionalgovernmentsareproactive
    whenitcomestondingsolutionstoenvironmental
    challenges.Thisisbecausetheiroverarchingobjective
    istomaintainthequalityofwaterresources(which
    isanintegralpartoftheCentralApenninesDistrict
    ManagementPlanandtheRegionalPlanforWater
    Protection).Forexample,theAbruzzoandUmbria
    Regionsareimplementingtheiractionplanstocombat
    thehighlevelofnitratepollution,whichisacommon
    probleminItaly.Theseplansfocusonthecorrect
    useoffertilizersandpromotebestpracticessuch
    assuggestingtheappropriateamountoffertilizerto
    useforvariouscrops,recommendingthebestperiods
    duringwhichtouseit,andadvisingonthebestways
    ofstoringandtransportingit.Theactionplansdo
    thisthroughdirectcommunicationwithfarmersand
    landowners.Inaddressingtheissueofnitratepollution,
    theCentralApenninesregionsputsignicantemphasis
    onpublicparticipation.Communicationtoolssuchas
    websites,informationsheetsandmeetingsareusedto
    facilitatebetterinteractionbetweenlocalauthorities
    andstakeholders.Thisapproachalsoaimstoinform
    stakeholdersandhelpthemtotackletheproblems
    associatedwithnitratepollution.
    AnongoingprojectintheMarcheRegionin
    cooperationwiththemajorItalianenergydistribution
    company,Enel,aimstodeterminethedegreeto
    whichincreasingtheamountofwaterdischargefrom
    damsafectsthequalityofsurfacewaterresources
    andtherechargerateofaquifers,especiallyindry
    periods.Thendingsofthisprojectwillcontribute
    toabetterunderstandingofhowtoadjustminimum
    environmentalowrequirementsanareawhere
    experimentalresearchislacking.
    Conclusions
    ThewaterresourcesoftheCentralApenninesDistrict
    andtheTiberRiverbasinareimportantforthesocio-
    economicdevelopmentofcentralItalyandthe
    countryscapital,Rome.Agriculture,whichispractised
    throughoutthebasin,isthesectorwithhighestwater
    requirement,accountingforover60%ofannualwater
    demand.ThesectorcontributeslittletoregionalGDP,
    however,andisoneofthesourcesoftheongoing
    problemofnitratepollution.Consequently,regional
    authoritieshavebeenimplementingprojectsto
    curbagriculturesimpactontheenvironmentandto
    reducetheamountofwaterituses.Decliningwater
    availability,causedbyclimaticvariabilityandclimate
    change,hasalsonecessitatedarevisitofcurrent
    waterpoliciesonallocationandsupply.Implementing
    theEUWaterFrameworkDirective,whichwas
    onholduntilrecently,canhelptoaddressthe
    aforementionedchallengesofseasonalwaterscarcity
    andenvironmentalpollution,whileimprovingpublic
    participationindecisionmaking.
    WWDR4 841 TIBERRIVERBASIN,ITALY

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheTiber River Basin
    Case Study Report,preparedin2011bytheTiberRiver
    BasinAuthorityandRegionalServices(forthcoming).
    Cesari,G.2010.IlbacinodelTevere,ilsuoambienteidricoe
    limpattoantropico.Primo rapporto annuale del Consorzio
    Tiberina.Rome,ConsorzioTiberina,29October2010.
    http://www.abtevere.it/sites/default/les/datisito/
    pubblicazioni/articolo_giorgio_cesari.pdf
    Cesari,G.andPelillo,R.2010.Central Apennines District:
    River Basin Management Plan of District (PGDAC)
    Problems and Expectations. Paperpresentedatthe
    EuropeanWaterAssociation6thBrusselsConference,
    ImplementingtheRiverBasinManagementPlans,5th
    November2010.Brussels/Rome,EWA/TiberRiverBasin
    Authority.

    Acknowledgements ManuelLacerda,SimonePio,SantaClaraGomes,theOfcefor
    InternationalRelationsoftheMinistryofAgriculture,Sea,EnvironmentandSpatial
    Planning,Portugal,DHV,S.A.,HidroprojectoEngenhariaeGesto,S.A.,Laboratrio
    NacionaldeEngenhariaCivil(LNEC),InternationalCentreforCoastalEcohydrology
    (ICCE),InstitutoNacionaldeRecursosBiolgicos,I.P./IPIMAR;Biodesign,Lda.,
    ARHdoTejoteam
    CHAPTER 48
    Tagus River basin, Portugal
    RuiCunha
    WWDR4 843 TAGUS RIVER BASIN, PORTUGAL
    Location and general characteristics
    TheRiverTagushasitssourceinSpainandowsinto
    theAtlanticOceannearLisboninPortugal.TheTagus
    Riverbasinishometo9.5millionpeopleandcovers
    anareaof80,550km2almostone-thirdofwhichis
    inPortugal.At1,100kmlong,theTagusisthelongest
    riverintheIberianPeninsulaanditisanimportant
    sourceofwaterforbothSpainandPortugal.The
    capitals,MadridandLisbon,relyontheTagusRiver
    basinfortheirwatersupply,whichfurtherincreasesits
    criticalvalue.
    Thiscasestudyfocusesonthelowersectionofthe
    basin,whichissituatedinPortugal(Map48.1).In
    2008,approximately3.5millionpeoplewerelivingin
    thisarea.Thebasinissubdividedinto23sub-basins,
    threeofwhich(TejoSuperior,ErgesandSever)are
    transboundary.
    Water resources, their use and potential
    efects of climate change
    PortugalhasamildMediterraneanclimatewithdistinct
    wetseasonsinautumnandwinter.Annualprecipitation
    inthebasinvariesfrom2,700mminthemountainous
    north-eastto520mminitswesternmostregions.
    Generally,insummermostofthesmallerriversdryup,
    whereasintenseprecipitationintheautumnandwinter
    MAP 48.1
    TagusRiverbasin
    monthsoftencausesoods.However,theowregime
    oftheTagusanditstributariesisquiteirregularasa
    resultofrainfallvariationfromyeartoyearaswellason
    aseasonalbasis.
    Inthestudyarea,thesurfacewateravailability(6.3
    billionm3)inaverageishigherthanthegroundwater
    potential(3billionm3)(ECOSOC,2011).However,
    groundwaterusepredominatesinthemajorityofthe
    sub-basins.
    Whileagricultureandagro-forestryemployonly2.7%
    ofthelabourforce,approximately45%oftheriver
    basinisgivenovertofarmingandforestry.Thewater
    requirementofthissector(944millionm3)accounts
    for65%ofthetotalwaterdemandinthebasin.The
    remainderislargelyusedbymunicipalities(27%)and
    toamuchlesserextent,byindustry(6%).
    Overall,thelocalwaterstresscausedbytheseasonal
    andothertemporalvariationsismoreofaconcern
    thanwateravailability.Inordertocopewiththis
    problem,over30damshavebeenbuiltwithatotal
    storagecapacityof2.3billionm3.
    Climatechangescenariosindicatedapotential
    decreaseintheamountofprecipitationintheorderof
    Portalegre Portalegre
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    844 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA CHAPTER48
    100mmperyear,particularlyinthecentreofPortugal
    andtothesouth.Theregionalmodel,however,predicts
    a20%to50%increaseinprecipitationinwinter.This
    patternofchangemaysubstantiallyincreasetheriskof
    oods.Thepredictionisthatby2100,theannualmean
    runoffromtheTagusRiverbasinwillbe10%to30%
    lower.Suchareductionimplieslongerperiodswith
    lowow,andthatislikelytohaveanegativeimpact
    onagricultureandtourism.Itisalsoexpectedthata
    reductioninwateravailabilitywillafectecosystems,
    energyproductionandwaterqualitywhichisextremely
    importantintermsofhumanhealth,ecosystemservices
    andotherwateruses.
    Toanalysethelong-termtrends,Portugalsnational
    waterauthority(InstitutodaguaINAG)carried
    outaclimateassessmentontheperiodfrom1931to
    2000.ThisstudyrevealedthatPortugalsmeanannual
    airtemperaturehadbeenincreasingsincethe1970s.
    Precipitationdataforthesameperiodshowedaweak
    decreasingtrendthatbecamemorepronounced
    after1976.Analysisofdataalsoshowedanincrease
    inthefrequencyofbothheavyprecipitationevents
    andsevereandextremedroughtsparticularlyinthe
    southernregionsbetween1990and2000.
    Thenationalwaterauthorityassessmentalsopointed
    outtheimminentthreatofrisingsealevels.About
    75%ofPortugalspopulationlivesalongthecoastal
    zone,and85%ofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)is
    generatedthere(Santosetal.,2002).Inaccordance
    withPortugals2004NationalClimateChange
    Programme,anditsadaptationstrategies,anumber
    ofcomplementaryactionshavebeentakenincluding
    enactingthenewWaterLaw(2005),arevisionof
    theStrategicPlanforWaterSupplyandSanitation
    for20072013(PEAASARII,MAOTDR2006),a
    revisionin2007oftheoriginalNationalClimate
    ChangeProgramme,andtheScenarios,Impactsand
    AdaptationMeasures(SIAM1andSIAM2),research
    project(Santosetal.2002;SantosandMiranda,2006;
    daCunha,2007).
    Transboundary cooperation
    SpainandPortugalshareseveralrivers.TheAlbufeira
    ConventionappliestotheMinho,Lima,Douro,Tagus
    andGuadianariversandcoversissuessuchasthe
    exchangeofinformation,pollutioncontroland
    prevention,theevaluationofthetransboundaryimpacts
    ofwateruses,theassignmentofrightsandconict
    resolution.TheAlbufeiraConventionisadministeredby
    theCommissionfortheApplicationandDevelopment
    oftheConvention.Thisisanintergovernmental
    technicalcommissioncoordinatedbytheforeign
    ministriesofbothripariancountries,withtechnical
    supportfromtheirenvironmentministries.Underthe
    Convention,whichcameintoforcein2000andwas
    revisedin2008,Spainguaranteestorelease2.7billion
    m3ofwatertoPortugalmeasuredatthedownstream
    sectionoftheCedillodam.Thiscorrespondsto
    approximately37%oftheannualaverageriverow
    (modiedhydrologicregime).Thecurrenttextof
    theConventionallowsforfuturerevisionsofthe
    establishedhydrologicregimesinordertoensurethe
    achievementoftheenvironmentalobjectivessetat
    basinlevelandtointegratetheclimatechangeissue
    andadaptationmeasures.
    Environmental status and legal framework
    TheRiverTagusowsintotheTagusestuary,oneof
    thelargestestuariesinWesternEurope.Becauseofits
    richbiodiversityandvarietyofhabitats,theestuaryis
    protectedundertheECDirectiveontheConservation
    ofWildBirds,whichalsomakesitpartoftheNatura
    2000network.Itisalsoclassiedasnaturereserve
    underPortuguesenationallegislation.
    Waterqualityinthebasincontinuestobeanissue
    thatdemandsattention.Aseriesofconsultations
    withstakeholderswasconductedasapartofthe
    preparationofariverbasinmanagementplan.
    Theseconsultationsidentiednutrientenrichment,
    pollution(organic,microbial,heavymetals,dangerous
    substances)andeutrophicationasthemostsignicant
    issuesinuencingwaterqualitydegradationinthe
    basin.Thepreliminarywaterstatusassessmentshows
    that54%ofthesurfacewaterbodiesand66.7%ofthe
    groundwaterbodiesareclassiedasgoodorexcellent
    (ARHdoTejo,2011).
    Nutrientenrichment,particularlyintheformofnitrogen
    andphosphorus,ismainlytheresultoffertilizeruse
    inagricultureandwastewaterdischargefromother
    sectors(includingmunicipaluse).Toreducenitrate
    concentrationsinwaterbodies,theCodeofGood
    AgriculturalPracticewasdrawnupandstepshave
    beentakentoraisefarmersawarenessbymeansof
    nationwidetraininginitiatives.Thecodesetsoutgeneral
    guidelines,mainlywithaviewtohelpingfarmersto
    rationalizetheuseoffertilizers.Italsoproposesa
    rangeofgrowingtechniquesandmethodsthatprotect
    surfacewaterandgroundwaterfrompollution(EEA,
    WWDR4 845 TAGUS RIVER BASIN, PORTUGAL
    2010).Anationalstrategyforagriculturalandagro-
    industrialwastewatertreatment(EstratgiaNacional
    paraosEuentesAgro-PecurioseAgro-Industriais)
    wasapprovedin2007todeneenvironmentally
    sustainablesolutionsandtoensurethereduction,orthe
    eliminationofthepollutionbeingcausedbydischarges
    fromagro-industrialactivities.
    Inrelationtoreducingurbanpollution,thesecond
    phase(2007-2013)oftheStrategicPlanforWater
    SupplyandWastewaterTreatment(PlanoEstratgico
    deAbastecimentodeguaedeSaneamentode
    guasResiduaisPEAASARII)wasadoptedtomake
    furtherprogresstowardsattainingtheobjectivesof
    theEUdirectives(MAOTDR,2006).PEAASARIIaims
    tooptimizethemanagementandenvironmental
    performanceofwatersupplyandsanitationutilities
    toreducecostsandtomaximizeefciency.In2009,
    thesewagetreatmentplantconnectionratewas79%
    inthebasin,againstanationaltargetof90%(ARHdo
    Tejo,2011).
    Water resources management
    and institutions
    Therstwaterresourcesplanningexercisetook
    placeduringtheEUWaterFrameworkDirectiveco-
    decisionprocedure(19972000).Itresultedinthe
    preparationofPortugalsnationalwaterplanaswell
    asfteenseparateriverbasinplansandtworegional
    waterplans.Workisstillongoingontheformulation
    oftherevisednationalwaterplanandtheriverbasin
    managementplans.
    TheWaterLawwasadoptedin2005aspartofthe
    EUWaterFrameworkDirectiveimplementation
    process(Box48.1).Thelawhasabroaderscopethan
    theEUDirectiveasitincludesalltheelementsofthe
    integratedwaterresourcesmanagementapproach,
    includingbothquantitativeandqualitativeaspects,
    aswellasmitigatingtheefectsofextremeevents.
    Tocompletethelegalframeworkonwaterresources
    management,anumberofadditionalregulationswere
    alsointroduced,notablyDecree226A(2007)onthe
    TheWaterLaw,adoptedin2005,establishedanewinstitutionalmodelinPortugal.Itisbasedonveriverbasindistrictadmin-
    istrationsandPortugalsnationalwaterauthority,theInstitutodagua(INAG),whichisresponsibleforwaterresourcesplan-
    ningandcoordinationinallpartsofthecountry.Thedistrictadministrationsareinchargeofwaterresourcesmanagementat
    thebasinlevelinparticular,theylookafterplanning,licensing,infrastructuremanagement,monitoring,andinformationand
    communicationactivities.
    Inthisconguration,theriverbasindistrictcouncilsandtheNationalWaterCouncilaretheadvisorybodies.Thedistrictcouncils
    provideadvicetothedistrictadministrationsandarecomposedofrepresentativesfromcentralgovernment,municipalities,the
    privatesectorandcivilsociety.TheNationalWaterCouncilmakesitsrecommendationsatthegovernmentallevel,particularlyto
    theMinistryofAgriculture,Sea,EnvironmentandSpatialPlanning.Allveriverbasindistrictadministrationsfunctionaccord-
    ingtotheprinciplesofstakeholderparticipation(userassociations,forexample),transparency,coherence,responsivenessand
    accountability.
    BOX 48.1
    TheWaterLawandtheriverbasindistrictadministrations
    MinistryofAgriculture,Sea,
    EnvironmentandSpatial
    Planning
    NationalWaterAuthority
    (INAG)
    RiverBasinDistrict
    Administrations:
    North
    Centre
    Tagus
    Alentejo
    Algarve
    A
    d
    v
    i
    s
    o
    r
    y

    B
    o
    d
    i
    e
    s
    :

    R
    i
    v
    e
    r

    b
    a
    s
    i
    n

    d
    i
    s
    t
    r
    i
    c
    t

    c
    o
    u
    n
    c
    i
    l
    s
    -

    N
    a
    t
    i
    o
    n
    a
    l

    W
    a
    t
    e
    r

    C
    o
    u
    n
    c
    i
    l
    846 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA CHAPTER48
    establishmentofalicensingsystemforwaterresources
    uses,Decree348(2007)ontheestablishmentof
    waterusersassociationsandDecree97(2008)onthe
    establishmentofaneconomicandnancialregime
    forwaterresources.Decree97aimstoimplement
    thepolluter-paysanduser-paysprinciples,and
    integratesthesocialandeconomicvaluesofwateras
    wellastheenvironmentalaspectsofwaterresources
    management.
    Conclusions
    Annual,seasonalandgeographicvariabilityinthe
    levelsofrainfalltheTagusRiverbasinreceivescauses
    waterstressatalocallevel.However,thecurrent
    challengefacingthebasinistoimprovethequalityof
    waterresources.Theinterestsoftheagricultural(such
    aslarge-scaleirrigation)andagro-industrysectors
    oftenconictwiththeenvironmentalstandardsset
    bytheEUWaterFrameworkDirective,leavingwater
    managersanddecision-makerswithanumberof
    complexproblems.Whileresourceavailabilityhas
    beenimprovedbyconstructingmanylargedams,this
    hasalsocausedsignicantchangesintheowregime,
    whichhavehadconsequencesfortheecosystems.
    Climatechangeandclimaticvariabilityareconcerns
    inatransboundarysetting.Consequently,itis
    importanttoassessthewaterallocationagreement
    betweenPortugalandSpainbasedonclimatechange
    studiesandtomeetenvironmentalobjectivessetby
    EUWaterFrameworkDirective.Portugalhasbeen
    makingsignicantefortstoaddresscurrentand
    imminentchallengesbydevelopingnationalstrategies
    andimplementingprogrammesthatareholisticand
    broaderinscopethantheDirective.Itiscriticaltokeep
    upthismomentumastheTagusRiverbasinliesatthe
    heartofbothPortugalandSpain.

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheTagus River
    Basin Case Study Report,preparedin2011bythe
    AdministraodaRegioHidrogrcadoTejo,
    MinistriodoAmbienteedoOrdenamentodo
    Territrio(forthcoming).
    ARH(AdministraodaRegioHidrogrca)doTejo.2011.
    Tagus River Basin Management Plan.Draftversionfor
    publicreview.(InPortuguese).www.arhtejo.pt
    daCunha,L.V.,2007.Adaptationstrategiesrelatedtowater
    managementandwaterservicesanexampleofthe
    situationinsouthernEurope,acasestudyofPortugal.
    Presentationattheconference,TimetoAdapt:Climate
    ChangeandtheEuropeanWaterDimensionVulnerability,
    Impacts,Adaptation.Lisbon,MAOTDR,INAGand
    NovaUniversity.http://www.climate-water-adaptation-
    berlin2007.org/documents/veiga.pdf.
    ECOSOC(UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCouncil).2011.
    Assessmentoftransboundarywatersdischarginginto
    theNorthSeaandeasternAtlantic.Notepreparedbythe
    SecretariatfortheECEWorkingGrouponMonitoringand
    Assessment.ttp://www.unece.org/leadmin/DAM/env/
    documents/2011/wat/WG2/ECE_MP_WAT_WG2_2011_15_
    North_Sea_Eastern_Atlantic.pdf
    EEA(EuropeanEnvironmentAgency).2010.Freshwater
    (Portugal): Why Should We Care about this Issue? Country
    Proleseries.Copenhagen,EEA.http://www.eea.europa.
    eu/soer/countries/pt/soertopic_view?topic=freshwater.
    MAOTDR(MinistriodoAmbientedoOrdenamentodo
    TerritrioedoDesenvolvimentoRegional),Portugal.2006.
    PEAASARII(PlanoEstratgicodeAbastecimentode
    guaedeSaneamentodeguasResiduais20072013).
    Lisbon,MAOTDR.http://www.maotdr.gov.pt/Admin/Files/
    Documents/PEAASAR.pdf
    Santos,F.D.Forbes,K.andMoita,R.(eds)2002.
    Climate Change in Portugal. Scenarios, Impacts and
    Adaptation Measures SIAM 1.Lisbon,Gradiva.Executive
    summaryandconclusions.http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/
    SIAMExecutiveSummary.pdf
    Santos,F.DandMiranda,P.(eds).2006.Alteraes
    Climticas em Portugal: Cenrios, Impactos e Medidas
    de Adaptao SIAM 2. (Climate Change in Portugal.
    Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures SIAM 1.[In
    Portuguese]),Lisbon,Gradiva.

    Acknowledgements RadhaPyati,HeatherMcCarthy,GretchenBielmyer,StuartChalk,
    DanielMcCarthy,GerryPinto,LucindaSonnenberg,PatrickWelsh
    CHAPTER 49
    St Johns River basin, Florida,
    United States of America
    Shutterstock/SteveBower
    848 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA CHAPTER49
    MAP 49.1
    StJohnsRiverbasin
    Location and general characteristics
    TheStJohnsRiverbasinliesincentralandnorthern
    Floridathemostsouth-easterlystateintheUnited
    StatesofAmerica.Theriver,whichiscomposedof
    upper,middleandlowersub-basins,risesinIndian
    RiverCountyinCentralFloridaandowsintothe
    AtlanticOceanatMayport,Jacksonville(Map49.1).
    TheStJohnsisoneofveryfewriversintheUSA
    thatrunsfromsouthtonorth.Themajortributaries
    thatfeedintoitaretheOcklawahaRiver,Dunns
    Creek,BlackCreek,theWekivaRiverandthe
    EconlockhatcheeRiver.Overits500kmlongjourney,
    theriverowsveryslowlyasthetotaldrop(the
    diferenceinaltitudebetweenthesourceandpointof
    owintotheocean)ismerely10metres.Jacksonville,
    thelargestcityinthebasin,hasapopulationof
    about800,000(2009).Moreover,somesectionsof
    theOrlandometropolitanareaalsolieinthebasin.
    Withadrainageareacovering32,000km2orabout
    25%ofFlorida,theStJohnsRiverbasinishometo
    approximately4.7millioninhabitants(StJohnsRiver
    WaterManagementDistrict,2011a).
    Water resources and their use
    StJohnsRiverlieswithinahumidsubtropicalzone
    andrainfalltypicallyoccursinlatesummerandearly
    autumn.Theaverageannualprecipitationinthebasin
    isapproximately132cmperyearandtheaverage
    annualdischargeatthemouthoftheriverisaround
    7.5billionm3.TheFloridanaquiferisanimportant
    groundwatersourcethatextendsoveranareaof
    259,000km2,whichincludesallofFloridaandparts
    ofGeorgia,Alabama,MississippiandSouthCarolina.
    Nearlyallthedrinkingwaterforcentralandnorthern
    Florida,includingtheStJohnsRiverbasin,comes
    fromthisaquifer(MarellaandBerndt,2005).The
    populationofthebasinisgrowingrapidlybetween
    1950and2000,thenumberofinhabitantsinFlorida
    increasedsixfold.Theamountofwaterwithdrawal
    fromthisaquiferhasalsosteadilyincreased,and
    Lake
    Monroe
    Lake
    Harney
    Lake
    Jesup
    Lake
    Weir
    Lake
    George
    Newmans
    Lake
    Lochloosa
    Lake
    Orange
    Lake
    Lake
    Grin
    Lake
    Harris
    Lake
    Eustis
    Lake
    Apopka
    Blue Cyprus
    Lake
    C
    r
    e
    s
    c
    e
    n
    t
    L
    a
    k
    e
    Doctors
    Lake
    Lake
    Monroe
    Lake
    Harney
    Lake
    Jesup
    Lake
    Weir
    Lake
    George
    Newmans
    Lake
    Lochloosa
    Lake
    Orange
    Lake
    Lake
    Grin
    Lake
    Harris
    Lake
    Eustis
    Lake
    Apopka
    Blue Cyprus
    Lake
    C
    r
    e
    s
    c
    e
    n
    t
    L
    a
    k
    e
    Doctors
    Lake
    O
    c
    k
    l
    a
    w
    a
    h
    a
    S
    t
    .

    J
    o
    h
    n
    s

    S
    t
    .

    J
    o
    h
    n
    s

    Mayport
    Jacksonville
    Palatka
    Bunnell
    DeLand
    Orlando
    Vero
    Beach
    MERRITT
    ISLAND
    National forest
    City
    County border
    Basin
    Wetland
    0 10 20 30 40 km
    RI D II D I AA
    WWDR4 849 STJOHNSRIVERBASIN,FLORIDA,UNITEDSTATESOFAMERICA
    TABLE 49.1
    AnnualwaterusebycategoryintheStJohnsRiverbasin,2010
    reachedapproximately5.5billionm3peryearin2000.
    Nearly78%ofthiswaterwaswithdrawninFlorida.
    WhileastudybytheUSGeologicalSurveyiscurrently
    underwaytodeterminehowsustainablecurrent
    ratesofwaterwithdrawalare,theStJohnsRiver
    WaterManagementDistrictestimatesthatthelevel
    ofabstractionofgroundwaterisabouttoreachthe
    limitofsustainableuse(District,2005).Thematterof
    quantityisfurthercomplicatedbythefactthatwater
    qualityisthreatenedbysaltwaterintrusionandthe
    introductionofcontaminantstotheaquifer.
    Thevariouscategoriesofwaterusesarelisted
    inTable49.1.Accordingtoprojections,by2030,
    agriculturalconsumptionwilldecreaseby12%,whereas
    municipalconsumption(thatis,thedemandforthe
    publicwatersupply)mayincreasebyasmuchas10%
    (StJohnsRiverWaterManagementDistrict,2005.)
    Intermsofimportance,agricultureissecondonlyto
    tourisminFloridaseconomy.Importantagricultural
    activitiesincludegrowingorangesandothercitrus
    fruitaswellascattleranchingforbothbeefanddairy
    products.Floridapossesses68.1%ofthemarketshare
    oforangeproductionintheUSA.Theseactivitiesare
    alltypicaloftheStJohnsRiverbasin.
    Category
    Freshwater
    (million m3)
    Saline water
    (million m3)
    Water reuse
    (million m3)
    Total water use
    (million m3)
    %
    Public supply 742.29 0.00 0.00 742.29 40.26
    Domestic self-supply and
    small public supply systems
    93.62 0.00 0.00 93.62 5.08
    Commercial/industrial/
    institutional self-supply
    134.52 3.84 31.32 169.68 9.20
    Agricultural irrigation
    self-supply
    570.95 0.00 10.57 581.52 31.54
    Recreational self-supply 88.03 0.00 157.48 245.51 13.32
    Thermoelectric power
    generation self-supply
    11.18 0.00 0.00 11.18 0.61
    Total 1,640.59 3.84 199.37 1,843.80 100.00
    Note: Source of domestic self-supply is assumed to be groundwater and domestic self supply is an estimate. Estimated amounts are based on
    best available data at the time of publication.
    Source: St Johns River Water Management District (2011a).
    Climate change and climatic variability
    PrecipitationpatternsinFloridaaredependenton
    larger-scaleclimaticanomaliessuchasElNioand
    theAtlanticMultidecadalOscillation.Climatechange
    couldamplifytheefectsoftheseanomaliesand
    makerainfallpatternsevenmoreunpredictable.
    However,inthesouthernpartsofthestate,the
    efectsareexpectedtobeadecreaseinrainfall
    duringboththedryandthewetseasons,alossin
    dryseasonrefugia
    1
    andsaltwaterintrusion.Sealevel
    rise,aphenomenonassociatedwiththemelting
    ofpolaricecapsasaresultofglobalwarming,
    posesasignicantthreattotheStJohnsRiver
    basinbecauseofitslow-lyingnature.According
    toestimates,sealevelsinFloridamayrisebyas
    muchas35centimetresby2080.Thegeneral
    consequencesofthisincludetheinundationoflow-
    lyingareasandsalt-waterintrusionintoaquifersand
    estuaries.Preliminaryresultsofmodellingstudies
    beingconductednearthemouthoftheStJohns
    Riverindicatedthatareasofopenwaterandestuary
    channelsmayalreadybeelevatedandthemarshes
    neartherivermoutharelikelytobeinundated
    morefrequently.However,onlyasmallareaofthe
    marshwouldactuallychangefrombeingregularly
    submergedtofullysubmerged.
    850 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA CHAPTER49
    Droughts,oodsandhurricanesarethenatural
    disastersthatcausesocio-economiclossesintheState
    ofFlorida.The2004and2005hurricaneseasonswere
    especiallynotableforthefrequencyofmajorstorms
    andtheextentofhurricanedamage.The2004season
    includedfourmajorstormsthatcausedthehighest
    cumulativesingle-yeardamagecostsinFloridas
    history(Malmstadetal.,2009)
    2
    .
    Droughtsandoodsalsohaveasignicantimpactonthe
    StJohnsRiverbasin.TropicalstormFaydepositedover
    40cmofraininave-dayperiodinBrevardCountyin
    2008.Thewaterlevelrosebyapproximatelytwometres
    inSeminoleCountyinfourdays,settingarecord.Overall,
    thestormledtosevereoodinginthemiddlesection
    ofthebasinandcauseddamageofanestimatedhalf
    abilliondollarsoverthreeneighbouringstates,Florida,
    GeorgiaandAlabama(StewartandBeven,2009).In
    spiteofuncertaintyinpredictingtheimpactofclimate
    changeonmeteorologicalextremes,thereisapossibility
    thattheseeventswillbecomebothmorefrequentand
    moresevere.
    Environment and ecosystems
    TheStJohnsisablackwaterriver.Dissolvedorganic
    matterfromdecayingplantsinswampsdissipates
    acrossthebasinreducingthedepthoflight
    penetrationandgivingtheriveritsdarkcolour.Other
    issuesthatafectwaterqualityandenvironmental
    conditionsinthebasinareslowow,salinity
    uctuation,marshlanddestructionandhuman-induced
    pollution(StJohnsRiverWaterManagementDistrict,
    2011b).
    Theriversextremelylowgradientslowstheow,holds
    backdrainage,deceleratestheushingofpollutants
    andintensiesoodingandpoolingofwateralong
    itslength.Thiscreatesnumerouslakesandextensive
    wetlandsthroughouttheStJohnsRiverbasin.The
    retentiontimeofthewater(anditsdissolvedand
    suspendedcomponents)intheriverisaroundthree
    tofourmonths.Thehighretentiontimesofpollutants
    havesevereimpactsonwaterquality.
    Anumberofsaltyspringsfeedintothebasinand
    causelocalizedareasofelevatedsalinity(>5ppt)in
    otherwisefreshwatersectionsoftheriver.Reverse
    owstriggeredbyweatherconditionsandmassive
    oceantidescausetherivertoowinanupstream
    direction.Andthistooresultsinabruptchangesin
    salinity.Reverseowshavebeendetectedasfaras
    257kmupstream.Suchvariationsinsalinityhave
    profoundhydrologicalandecologicalefects.
    WetlandsarevitaltotheNortheastFloridaecosystem.
    However,intheUpperStJohnsRiverbasin,themarshes
    havebeendrainedtogrowcitrusfruitandforanimal
    husbandry.Trendsinwetlandcoveragecannotbe
    accuratelyestablishedbecauseofinsufcientand
    inconsistentinformation.Ontheotherhand,since
    1988,theStJohnsRiverWaterManagementDistrict
    andtheU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineershaverestored
    andenhancedmorethan600km2ofmarshesinIndian
    RiverandBrevardcounties(StJohnsRiverWater
    ManagementDistrict,2011b).However,becauseof
    habitatloss,increasedboatingtrafcanddrought,
    somespeciessuchastheFloridamanatee,thewood
    stork,theshortnosesturgeon,thepipingplover,the
    Floridascrubjayandtheeasternindigosnakecontinue
    tobevulnerableandfaceextinction.
    Everyyear,morethan14,000tonnesofnitrogen
    andphosphorusentertheStJohnsRivermainlyas
    aresultofthedisposalofpartiallytreatedsewage
    (StJohnsRiverWaterManagementDistrict,2011c).
    Othersignicantpollutionsourcesincludefarmsin
    theagriculturalareasofFlagler,PutnamandStJohns
    counties.Agriculturalrunoffromfarmingareascarries
    animalwaste,fertilizersandpesticidesintotheriver.
    Stormwaterfromurbanareasalsotakespollutants
    suchaslawnfertilizers,sediments,pesticidesand
    trashintotheriver.Consequently,nutrientlevelsin
    theriversmainstemandfaecalcoliformlevelsin
    thetributariesexceedlimitssetbywaterquality
    standards.Inaddition,becauseoftheriversslow
    ow,thelowerSt.JohnsRiverinparticularisfacing
    pollutionproblems.Theseincludethegrowthofalgal
    bloomswhichblocksunlightfromreachingunderwater
    vegetation,producetoxins,depletedissolvedoxygen
    andendangershandotherwildlife.Efortsare
    ongoingtoreducenutrientloadingbysettingatotal
    maximumdailyload(TMDL),bydrawingupaBasin
    ManagementActionPlan,throughcollaboration
    betweengovernmentandindustryandpublic
    education.
    Water resources management
    FederallawsonwaterresourcesincludetheClean
    WaterAct(CWA)andtheSafeDrinkingWaterAct
    (SDWA).TheCWA,whichwaspassedin1972and
    amendedin1977and1978,shiftedthefocusof
    pollutioncontrolfrombeingsolelyorientedtowards
    WWDR4 851 STJOHNSRIVERBASIN,FLORIDA,UNITEDSTATESOFAMERICA
    water-qualitystandardstolookingatwaysoflimiting
    efuentfrompointsources.FollowingtheCWA,the
    SDWAwaspassedin1974andamendedin1986.With
    itcametheestablishmentofmonitoringandwater-
    qualitystandardsforallpublicwatersupplysystems.
    IntheStateofFlorida,theFloridaDepartmentof
    EnvironmentalProtection(FDEP)andotherentities
    implementtheseeforts.
    In1972,theFloridaLegislaturepassedtheFlorida
    WaterResourcesAct,whichestablishedvewater
    managementdistrictsinthestate,supervisedbythe
    FDEP.Eachdistrictwastaskedwithmanagingwater
    resourcesinitsbasin,grantingpermitsforwater
    use,developingandimplementingoodcontroland
    droughtplanningprojects,performingtechnicaland
    scienticevaluationsofwaterresourcesinthebasin
    andacquiringlandtoprotectwaterresourcesand
    habitats.TheStJohnsRiverWaterManagement
    Districtisoneofthesevedistricts.
    Unfortunately,intheyearssinceitwaspassed,the
    FWRAhasnotbeenabletoassurewateravailability
    orquality.Thisisbecausemanyexceptionshave
    beenmadetothelawsmostlyinordertoenable
    populationgrowthandlanddevelopmentinFlorida
    whichhavesignicantlyweakenedtheimpactofthe
    Act.The1972CWAhadmoredirectimpactonwater
    qualityissuesbutsomeofitsprovisions,particularly
    onTMDLswerenotactivelyenforcedbytheU.S.
    EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)untilcitizen
    lawsuitsinthelate1990sforcedtheagencytostart
    collectinginformationfromstatesonwaterresources
    thatdidnotmeetqualitystandards.
    FloridasenforcementofTMDLsefectivelybeganin
    1999withthepassageoftheWatershedRestoration
    Act.Followingthatlaw,allthewaterbodiesinthe
    statewereorganizedintobasins,whichwerefurther
    collectedintogroups.Thebasinswereassessedina
    ve-yearcycletoaddresstheirTMDLs.Basically,the
    TMDLprogrammeestablishestotalamountsfora
    numberofpollutants(bothpointsourcesandnon-
    pointsources).Thesetotalamountsarethemaximum
    levelsthatcanbeabsorbedbyaspecicwaterbody
    withoutbreachingthewaterqualitystandardssetto
    protecthumanhealthandaquaticlife.OnceaTMDL
    isdraftedandapproved(whichincludesatimeperiod
    forpubliccommentsanddiscussion),itisimplemented
    throughaBasinManagementActionPlan,which
    prescribesstrategiessuchaswastewatertreatment
    improvements,redirectingwastewaterdischarge
    towardreuse,prescribingbest-managementpractices
    inagricultural,urban,andruralsettings,andfacilitating
    environmentaleducation.NutrientTMDLshavebeen
    successfullyestablishedforthelower,middleand
    upperbasins.Inaddition,BasinManagementAction
    Planhavebeendevelopedforalargenumberofwater
    bodiesandpollutants,includingseveralwithinall
    stretchesoftheriveranditstributaries.However,the
    lowerStJohnsRiverbasinistheonlysectionofthe
    riverwithanutrientBasinManagementActionPlan
    whichitadoptedin2008.
    Conclusions
    Despitehighlevelsofrainfall,watersupplyhas
    becomeacontentiousissueinFlorida.Thegrowing
    populationandevergreaterdemandsforwater
    areputtingincreasingpressureonwaterresources,
    notablyontheFloridanaquifersystemthatprovides
    drinkingwaterforvestates.Theriversslowowand
    continuousdisposalofpartiallytreatedwastewater
    meanthatbothphosphorusandnitrogenlevels
    generallyexceedEPArecommendedstandardsinboth
    themainstemoftheStJohnsRiveranditstributaries.
    Dissolvedoxygenconcentrationsalsofallbelowthe
    site-specicminimumstandardinseveraltributaries.
    Consequently,waterqualityinbothsurfaceand
    groundwaterisbecomingamajorconcern.Although
    institutionsareinplacebothfederallyandatstate
    level,alackofenforcementofthelegislationupto
    the1990shascausedbasin-widedegradation.While
    restorationandpreventionactivitiesbystateandlocal
    governmentsintheStJohnsRiverbasinareongoing,
    thereisaclearneedtocompoundtheseefortsby
    involvingothergovernmentalagencies,organizations
    andthepublic.
    852 EUROPEANDNORTHAMERICA CHAPTER49

    Notes
    1 Refugiaarethewater-holdingareasthatoferrefugetoa
    varietyofspeciesduringadryseason.
    2 HurricanesCharley,Frances,IvanandJeannecauseda
    combineddamageofUS$49billioninFlorida.

    References

    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheCase Study
    Report of St Johns River basin, Florida, USAprepared
    in2011byPyatietal.(forthcoming).
    Malmstad,J.,Scheifn,K.andElsner,J.2009.Florida
    hurricanesanddamagecosts.Southeastern Geographer,
    Vol.49,No.2,pp.10831.http://www.stormrisk.org/admin/
    downloads/MalmstadtEtAl2009.pdf
    Marella,R.L.andBerndt,M.P.2005.Water Withdrawals
    and Trends from the Floridan Aquifer System in the
    Southeastern United States, 1950-2000.Reston,Va.,US.
    GeologicalSurveyScienticcircular1278.p.http://pubs.
    usgs.gov/circ/2005/1278/pdf/cir1278.pdf
    StJohnsRiverWaterManagementDistrict.2005.Water
    Supply.SJRWMDwebsite.http://www.sjrwmd.com/
    watersupply/waterusedatamanagement.html
    .2011a.St. Johns River Water Management District 2009
    Annual Water Use Survey.Palatka,Fla.,SJRWMD.http://
    www.sjrwmd.com/technicalreports/pdfs/FS/SJ2011-FS1.
    pdf
    .2011b.n.d.Water Bodies, Watersheds and Storm Water:
    The St Johns River.SJRWMDwebsite.http://www.sjrwmd.
    com/stjohnsriver/index.html(Accessed17October,2011)
    .2011c.Water Bodies, Watersheds and Storm Water:
    Lower St Johns River Basin.SJRWMDwebsite.http://
    www.sjrwmd.com/lowerstjohnsriver/index.html(Accessed
    17October,2011.)
    Stewart,S.R.andBeven,J.L.2009.Tropical Cyclone Report:
    Tropical Storm Fay, 1526 August, 2008.Miami,Fla.,
    NationalHurricaneCenter.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/
    TCR-AL062008_Fay.pdf

    Acknowledgements JosMiguelZeledn,JuanCarlosFallas,CarlosRomero,
    CarlosVargas,SadLaporte,MaraElenaRodrguez,FabioHerrera,AndreiBourrouet,
    FedericoGmez-Delgado
    CHAPTER 50
    Costa Rica
    Shutterstock/Erkki&Hanna
    854 LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN CHAPTER50
    MAP 50.1
    CostaRica
    Location and general characteristics
    CostaRicaislocatedinthenarrowestpartofCentral
    America,borderedbyNicaraguatothenorthand
    Panamatothesouth.Totheeast,itformsacoastline
    withtheCaribbeanSeaandtothewest,withthe
    PacicOcean(Map50.1).Thesurfaceareaofthe
    countryisaround50,000km2.
    CostaRicaspopulationin2010wasslightlyover
    4.6millionabout59%ofwhomliveinurban
    areas.Thecapital,SanJos,isthelargestcityinthe
    country,withapopulationof1.6million.Thereare
    sevenprovincesAlajuela,Cartago,Guanacaste,
    Heredia,Limn,PuntarenasandSanJos(FAO
    Aquastat,n.d.).Theprovincesaredividedintosix
    regionsforplanningpurposesChorotega,Huetar
    Atlantic,HuetarNorth,CentralPacic,Centraland
    Brunca.
    Therearemanyvolcanoesinthecountry,someofwhich
    arestillactive.ThePos(2,708mabovesealevel),
    locatedintheCentralHighlands,isoneofCostaRicas
    largestandmostactivevolcanoes(Arenal.net,n.d.).
    Thecountryliesinahumidtropicalzone.Whilethe
    amountofrainfallvariesfromonebasintoanother,
    CostaRicahasannualaveragerainfallof3,300mm
    (UNESCOIHP,2007).Ingeneral,thenorthofthe
    countryonthePacicsideisdrierthantheCaribbean
    region,whichishumidalmostallyearround.Therainy
    seasonextendsfromMaytoNovemberonthePacic
    side,andfromMaytoFebruaryontheCaribbean
    side.Forestscoverapproximately25,000km2,or
    approximatelyhalfthecountryslandsurface.
    Water resources availability and their use
    Thereare34riverbasinsinCostaRica,ranginginsize
    from200km2to5,000km2(FAOAquastat,n.d.).
    Unfortunately,reliableinformationisavailableforonly
    15ofthosebasins.Thecountryhastotalrenewable
    waterresourcesofslightlymorethan110billionm3
    (MINAET,2008a).Ofthis,surfacewateraccountsfor
    73billionm3.
    Researchinitiativesbeguninthe1960shelpedto
    identify58aquifersacrossthecountry,34ofwhich
    arecoastal.Asaresultofseasonalshortagesinthe
    availabilityofsurfacewaterandgrowingpollution,
    theexploitationofgroundwaterhasbecomemore
    common.Accordingtoestimates,annualwater
    demandisapproximately23.5billionm3(2010),almost
    88%ofwhichismetbyaquifers.Consequently,the
    Telira
    Telira
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    Iraz Iraz Iraz
    Turrialba Turrialba Turrialba
    Pos Pos Pos
    Miravalles Miravalles Miravalles
    Arenal Arenal Arenal
    Rincn de la Vieja Rincn de la Vieja Rincn de la Vieja
    San Jos
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    NI CARAGUA
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    WWDR4 855 COSTARICA
    sustainableexploitationofgroundwaterresourcesisof
    greatimportance.
    TheCentralregionhasthebiggestdemandforwater
    inthecountrybecausemorethanhalfthepopulation
    liveshereandthereisahighconcentrationof
    industrialandeconomicactivity(MoraValverde,n.d.).
    Nationwide,generatinghydroelectricityaccountsfor
    80%oftotalwaterdemand,followedbyagriculture
    at16%.Theremaining4%isusedfordrinkingwater,
    andbyindustryandtourism.Giventhatthewater
    usedforhydropowergenerationreturnstotheow
    withoutloss,agricultureremainsthelargestuser
    (3.2billionm3)intermsofactualconsumption.In
    2008,agriculturalactivitieswerepractisedover
    approximately4,190km2

    ofland(8%ofnational
    territory),920km
    2
    ofwhichwereirrigated.Some70%
    oftheirrigatedlandisdevelopedbytheprivatesector,
    andthemostimportantagriculturalproductsgrown
    arecofee,rice,Africanpalm,sugarcane,bananaand
    pineapple(SEPSA,2009).
    Thesectorsthatcontributemosttoeconomic
    growthareindustryat32.5%andagricultureat14%
    (MINAET/IMN,2009).Unfortunately,80%ofwater
    contaminationoriginatesinthesetwosectors.Urban
    settlementsarealsoabigsourceofpollutionbecause
    onlyaround3%ofwastewateristreatedpriortobeing
    disposedofintonature(FAOAquastat,n.d.).
    Accordingtovariousscenarios,waterdemandmay
    substantiallyincreaseby2030toreachapproximately
    109billionm3,theupperlimitoffreshwateravailability
    inthecountry.However,theenergysectorwill
    continue,byalargemargin,tobethemajor(non-
    consumer)wateruser,processing100billionm3in
    hydroelectricitygeneration.Consequently,themain
    challengewillnotbewaterscarcitybuttoplanfor
    wateruseinanintegratedfashiontobeabletosatisfy
    thedemandofallsectors.
    Natural disasters, national strategies
    and climate change
    CentralAmericaandtheCaribbeanregionare
    highlyvulnerabletoextremesofclimate.Of
    248hydrometeorologicaldisastersbetween1930
    and2008,some85%wereoods,tropicalstorms,
    landslidesormudslides,while9%weredroughts.
    Becauseofthesteepslopesofthemountainous
    terrain,riversrunfastinthecentralpartofCosta
    Rica,andareknowntocauseviolentoods.Urban
    development,deforestation,andchannelmodication,
    especiallyintheCaribbeanslopeandtheSouth
    Pacic,haveworsenedtheseconditions,causing
    oodstoafecteverlargerhumansettlements,
    agriculturalareas,infrastructure,andnaturereserves.
    Consequently,between1994and2003,approximately
    120,000peopleand17,000housingunitswere
    reportedtohavebeenafectedbyoods,landslides,
    andwindstorms.Asrecentlyas2010,heavyrainand
    mudslidesafectedover2,000kmofnationalroads,
    andcausedUS$242millionworthofdamage.The
    sameyear,over3,000housesweredamaged,atan
    estimatedcostofUS$50million.Thelosstoagriculture
    wasinthevicinityofUS$40million.Toalesserextent,
    thecountryisalsopronetodrought.Infact,recurring
    droughtsin1997and1998andagainin2001causeda
    combinedeconomiclossofUS$18million.
    RiskmanagementinCostaRicahasgonethrougha
    processofinstitutionalization.The1969Emergencies
    ActledtotheestablishmentoftheNational
    CommissionforRiskPreventionandEmergency
    Response(ComisinNacionaldePrevencinde
    RiesgosyAtencindeEmergencias)andtheNational
    EmergencyFunds.Lateramendmentstothelaw
    requiredtheintegrationofriskmanagementintothe
    planningactivitiesofallnationalinstitutionsaswellas
    intoallnationaldevelopmentpolicies.
    CostaRicaisunderstandablyconcernedwiththe
    likelyefectsofclimatechange.Currentclimatic
    modelsindicatethepossibilitythat,by2100,
    temperaturesmayhaveincreasedasmuchas3.8C,
    precipitationmayhavedecreasedbyupto60%,
    andthesealevelmayhaverisenbyasmuchas
    onemetre(WorldBank,2009).Underabusiness-
    as-usualscenario(thatis,noreductionincarbon
    emissions),by2100,thecumulativecostofclimate
    changeinCentralAmericancountriesisestimated
    toreachapproximatelyUS$52billion(2002US$
    reference).InCostaRicaalone,additionalinvestment
    ofasmuchasUS$3.4billionmayberequiredfor
    theadaptationofsectorsrelyingonwaterand
    biodiversityfortheprovisionoftheirservices.Given
    thatheavynancialburden,andthepotentiallysevere
    implicationsofclimaticextremes,aNationalStrategy
    onClimateChangehasbeenestablishedandisbeing
    overseenbytheMinistryofEnvironment,Energyand
    Telecommunication(MINAET).Thisstrategyaimsto
    improveoverallefciencyinallsectors,withthegoal
    856 LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN CHAPTER50
    ofreducinggreenhousegases.Thestrategydocument
    alsoestimatesthatthelargestamountofinvestment
    (71%)needstobemadeintheenergysector,followed
    byagriculture(21%),tocompensatefortheefects
    ofclimatechange(Box50.1).Thesetwosectorshave
    traditionallybeennancedthroughexternalfunds.
    Themostimportantsourceofinternalfundingfor
    climatechangeadaptationistheNationalFundfor
    ForestFinancing(FondoNacionaldeFinanciamiento
    Forestal),establishedbytheForestryLawandlinked
    topaymentforecosystemservices.Inlinewiththe
    PeacewithNatureinitiative,promotedbyPresident
    OscarAriasSnchez,CostaRicahaspledgedto
    becomeacarbonneutralcountryby2021.
    Water resources management: National
    strategy and water policy
    CostaRicasnationalstrategyhastheoverarchingaims
    ofboostingeconomicdevelopmentandincreasing
    humanwelfare,inharmonywiththeenvironment
    (MINAET,2008b).Integratedwaterresources
    management(IWRM)iscentraltothisstrategy.Asa
    result,theStatehasestablishedanumberofguiding
    principlesforwaterpolicythatidentifywaterasapublic
    good,andaccesstodrinkingwaterasahumanright
    undertheconstitution.Otherimportantissuesidentied
    bythestrategydocumentincludetheequitableuseof
    waterresources,theimprovementofwaterinfrastructure
    andtheapplicationoftechnologytoimprovethe
    efciencyofwateruseandcurbwaterpollution.Italso
    highlightstheimportanceoftheeconomicvaluationof
    water,thepromotionofintegrated,decentralized,and
    participatorybasinmanagementprogrammes,andthe
    protectionofwaterresourcesforhumanwell-beingand
    theprotectionofecosystems.
    TheNationalWaterPolicyseekstoharmonizethe
    prioritiesofeconomicgrowth,povertyreduction
    andnatureconservationthroughIWRM,theaim
    beingtoensurethatbothwaterquantityandquality
    meetthedemandsofsustainablenationalgrowth
    (MINAET,2009).Intermsofnationalwatersecurity,
    thepolicyhassixstrategicpriorities:increasingthe
    competitivenessofdomesticindustry,promoting
    holisticwatermanagement,ensuringthesustainable
    useofwaterresources,creatingawaterculture,
    mitigatingtheefectsofclimatechange,andinvolving
    publicparticipationindecision-makingprocesses.
    Thereareanumberofinstitutionsinvolvedin
    implementingandoverseeingtheNationalWater
    Policy.MINAETistheleadagencyresponsiblefor
    implementingthe1942WaterLaw.TheWaterBoard
    (DireccindeAgua)andtheNationalRegisterof
    Concessionsareothernationalbodiesthatsupport
    MINAETsefortsthroughpromotingtherationaluse
    ofwaterresourcesandcentralizinginquiriesforwater
    abstraction.TheNationalServiceofGroundwater,
    IrrigationandDrainage(ServicioNacionaldeAguas
    Subterrneas,RiegoyAvenamiento)isapublicagency
    thatpromotessustainableagriculturaldevelopment
    throughefcientmanagementandtheuseofsurface
    waterandgroundwater.TheCostaRicanWaterand
    SewerInstitute(InstitutoCostarricensedeAcueductos
    yAlcantarillados)providesdrinkingwaterand
    sanitationservicesinbothurbanandruralsettlements.
    TheInstitutealsoaimstoconserveriverbasinsand
    toreducewaterpollution.TheCostaRicanInstitute
    ofElectricity(InstitutoCostarricensedeElectricidad)
    isthemainoperatorprovidingelectricityand
    telecommunicationsservices.
    Intermsofalegalframework,theWaterLaw,which
    hasbeenreliedontoregulateallaspectsofwateruse
    isoutdated.Therealityisthatinatimeofincreasing
    demandforwaterandgrowingcompetitionamong
    diferentsectorsfortheresource,itnolongerprovides
    sufcientmeanstomanageandprotectthecountry's
    waterresources.Inrecognitionofthis,MINAETis
    draftingawaterbilltomodernizethecurrentwater
    managementpolicy.
    Poverty, access to water supply and
    sanitation services
    Accordingtothe2010NationalHouseholdSurvey(INEC,
    2010)approximately21%ofCostaRica'spopulationlives
    inpoverty,while6%faceextremepovertyeveryday.
    Theincidenceofpovertyinruralareasissignicantly
    higherat26.3%thaninurbanareasat18.3%.Thereisa
    markeddiferencealsointermsofgenderequality,with
    thenumberofmeninworksignicantlyhigherthanthe
    numberofwomen(71.4%and39.4%,respectively).This
    illustratesthegreaterdifcultythatwomenfaceinthe
    labourmarketandingainingaccesstoemployment.
    Ingeneral,99%ofthepopulationhasaccesstosafe
    drinkingwater(2009),almostallofwhichispiped
    totheirpremises.Inruralareas,therateofaccessis
    92%.Accesstoimprovedsanitationisequallyhigh
    at95%.However,only40%oftheurbanpopulation
    and4%ofruraldwellersareservedbythesanitation
    infrastructure(WHO/UNICEF,2010).
    WWDR4 857 COSTARICA
    Protection of Environment and Biodiversity
    CostaRica,inspiteofitssmallsize,accountsfor
    approximately6%oftheworldsbiodiversity.Thatis
    becauseofitsgeographicallocationanditsvarying
    landscape,whichrangesfromislandsandbeachesto
    rainforests(EmbassyofCostaRica,n.d.).Sincethe
    middleofthelastcentury,CostaRicahasdeveloped
    anextensivenetworkofprotectedareas,totalling
    approximately26%ofitslandsurface.CocosIsland
    andLaAmistad,forexample,aretworenowned
    nationalparkswhichhavereceivedinternational
    recognitionasUNESCOWorldHeritageSites.
    CostaRica,asasignatoryto45international
    environmentaltreaties,hasalsoenactedanumberof
    regulatoryinstrumentssuchastheOrganicLaw,drawn
    upbytheMinistryofEnvironmentandEnergy(1993),
    theEnvironmentLaw(1995),andtheForestryLaw
    (1996).TheBiodiversityAct(1998)dealsspecically
    withtheprotectionofbiodiversityandendangered
    species.TheNationalSystemofConservationAreas,
    whichoperateswithintheMINAET,isresponsible
    forpromotingtheconservationofbiodiversityand
    thesustainableuseofforests,mangroves,wetlands,
    andforestplantations(EmbassyofCostaRica,n.d.).
    Inaddition,theNationalBiodiversityInstitutewas
    establishedin1989asaprivate,not-for-prot,
    organizationtocarryoutmonitoringandresearch.
    Itskeyaimsaretheestablishmentofabiodiversity
    inventory,thepromotionofconservationactivities,and
    theprovisionofdatawhichinformdecision-making
    inrelationtotheprotectionandsustainableuseof
    biodiversity.
    CostaRicahaspioneeredtheuseofpaymentfor
    environmentalservices,byestablishingacountrywide
    mechanismlocallyknownasPagodeServicios
    Ambientalestochargeusersfortheenvironmental
    servicestheyreceive.Inspiteofinitialdifculties
    causedbythereluctanceofserviceuserstopayfor
    conservation,theprogrammeisnowwellestablished
    withinCostaRicaandwidelyperceivedassuccessful
    (Pagiola,2006).
    InlinewiththePeacewithNatureinitiative,whichaims
    tomakeCostaRicacarbonneutralby2021,93.6%of
    electricityisgeneratedusingrenewablesourcesof
    energy,notablyhydropower.Similarly,the20072021
    strategicplandevelopedbytheCostaRicanInstitute
    ofElectricity(InstitutoCostarricensedeElectricidad)
    foreseesfurtherdevelopmentofhydropowerthrough
    theconstructionofdamswiththeminimumpossible
    environmentalimpact,andtheuseofalternative
    sourcesofpowersuchaswave,windandgeothermal
    energy.Thisplanwillrequireaninvestmentof
    US$1.4billion(2005US$reference).
    However,theothersideofthecoinisthatpopulation
    growth,theexpansionofurbansettlements,industrial
    developmentandtheintensicationofagricultural
    In2008,approximately20%ofcultivatedlandinCostaRicawasirrigated.Avulnerabilitystudyhasbeenconductedinthe
    threemostimportantriverbasins,theReventazn,theGrandedeTerrabaandtheGrandedeTrcoles,usingclimatescenar-
    iosinwhichtemperaturesincreaseby1Cto2C,withchangesinprecipitationof15%onthePacicsideand10%onthe
    Atlanticside.Resultspredictthatmarkedvariationsinwaterowwilloccurintheseareas,whichwillafectagricultureespe-
    ciallyduringthetransitionbetweenthedryseasonandtherainyseason.
    Thereisalsoexpectedtobeanincreaseinoods,whichwillhaveadirectimpactonirrigationsystemsandleadtomoresoil
    erosion.Atthesametime,therewillbeanincreaseinthefrequencyofdroughtsinsomepartsofthecountry,leadingtoless
    waterforirrigation.
    Accordingtoananalysisofthevulnerabilityofwaterresourcestoclimatechange,thecountrysmostvulnerableregions
    arethosewheremostlandisusedforagriculture,orareaswherethereisconictinglanduse.In2009,CostaRicasSecond
    NationalCommunicationtotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeexaminedseveraladaptation
    measuresconcerningwaterresources.Theseincludedthefollowing:waterstoragefacilities,theprotectionofaquifers,the
    monitoringofwaterresources,waterrationingandprojectsaimedatincreasingwaterefciencyinirrigation.
    Source: Modied from the World Bank (2009).
    BOX 50.1
    Potentialimplicationsofclimatechangeonagriculture
    858 LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN CHAPTER50
    activities,includinglivestockproduction,haveallledto
    anincreaseintheamountofcontaminants.Theserange
    fromindustrial,agricultural,andsolidwaste,toagro-
    chemicalsandsewage,andtheyarebeingdischarged
    intoCostaRicaswaterbodies.Nationwide,only3.6%of
    sewageistreated.Consequently,manystreams,rivers,
    andaquifersarepollutedtovaryingdegrees.

    Anexampleofthiscomplexandgrowingproblemis
    theTrcolesRiverbasin,whichishometo51%ofthe
    populationand85%ofthecountrysindustries.Severe
    pollutioninthemajorriversofthisbasinandinsome
    tributariesoftheVirillaRiver(suchastheMaraAguilar,
    theTorresandtheTiribrivers)hasconsiderablylimited
    wateravailabilityinthemosteconomicallydeveloped
    regionofthecountry.Whilethisisanimpedimentto
    sustainabledevelopment,italsoraisesserioushealth
    andenvironmentalconcerns(GWP,2011).
    Conclusions
    CostaRica,withaverageannualwateravailabilityof
    24,000m3percapita,iswellendowedintermsof
    waterresources.Whilerainfallisabundant,seasonal
    shortagesinsurfacewaterhavepromptedthe
    widespreadexploitationofaquifers.However,greater
    useofwaterinallsectors,combinedwithincreasing
    populationdensity,hasledtothecontaminationof
    riversandsomeaquifers,suchasthoseintheCentral
    Valley,wheremorethanhalfthepopulationlives.
    Onthepositiveside,CostaRicaistherstcountry
    intheworldwhichhaspledgedtobecomecarbon
    neutralby2021.Thisaspirationgoeshandinhandwith
    theefortstoprotectthecountrysrichbiodiversity
    andenvironment.Almost94%ofelectricityproduction
    alreadycomesfromrenewableresources,andthe
    governmentaimstopromotefurtherdiversication
    intorenewableformsofenergysuchaswave,wind
    andsolarpower,inadditiontohydroelectricity.
    CostaRicaisalsoapioneerinLatinAmericainterms
    oftheimplementationofPaymentforEcosystem
    Services,which,inturn,generatesnationalfundsfor
    climatechangeadaptation.Themajorchallengesareto
    updatetheobsoleteWaterLaw,improvelegislationand
    mechanismsthatdealwithextremeevents,andreduce
    poverty.Enhancinghydrometeorologicalinformation
    byextendingresearchandmonitoringactivitiesto
    alltheriverbasins,ensuringthesustainableuseof
    groundwaterresources,extendingsanitationcoverage,
    andcurbingpollution,aresomeoftheissuesthatnow
    requirefurtherattentionatnationallevel.

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromtheCostaRicaCase
    StudyReport,Informe de Recursos Hdricos de Costa
    Rica (Recopilacin),preparedin2011bytheCosta
    RicaIHPNationalCommittee,theNationalInstituteof
    Statistics,andtheCostaRicanInstituteofElectricity
    (forthcoming).
    Arenal.net.n.d.Volcanoes of Costa Rica.http://www.arenal.
    net/costa-rica-volcanoes.htm(Accessed13August2011.)
    EmbassyofCostaRica,UnitedStates.n.d.Environment.
    WashingtonDC,EmbassyofCostaRica. http://www.
    costarica-embassy.org/?q=node/12
    FAOAquastat.2011.Sistema de Informacin sobre el Uso
    del Agua en la Agricultura y el Medio Rural de la FAO. FAO
    CountryProle.http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/
    countries_regions/costa_rica/indexesp.stm(Accessed
    13August2011.)
    GWP(GlobalWaterPartnership).2011.Situacin de los
    recursos hdricos en Centroamrica: hacia una gestin
    integrada. Tegucigalpa,Honduras,GWP.
    INEC(InstitutoNacionaldeEstadsticayCensos).2010.
    Encuesta Nacional de Hogares: Cifras bsicas sobre fuerza
    de trabajo, pobreza e ingresos de los hogares, julio 2010.
    SanJos,CostaRica,INEC.
    MINAET(MinisteriodeAmbiente,Energay
    TelecomunicacionesCostaRica).2008a.Elaboracin de
    Balances Hdricos por cuencas hidrogrcas y propuesta de
    modernizacin de las redes de medicin en Costa Rica.San
    Jos,CostaRica,MINAET.
    .2008b.Plan Nacional de Gestin Integrada de
    los Recursos Hdricos. SanJos,CostaRica,MINAET.
    http://www.gwpcentroamerica.org/uploaded/content/
    event/1814341097.pdf(Accessed26November2011.)
    .2009.Poltica Hdrica Nacional.SanJos,Costa
    Rica,MINAET.http://www.drh.go.cr/textos/balance/
    politicahidrica_30nov09.pdf
    MINAET/IMN(InstitutoMeteorolgicoNacional).2009.
    Segunda Comunicacin Nacional, a la convencin marco
    de las naciones unidas sobre cambio climtico.SanJos,
    CostaRica,MINAETandIMN.http://unfccc.int/resource/
    docs/natc/cornc2.pdf(Accessed14August2011.)
    WWDR4 859 COSTARICA
    MoraValverde,M.n.d.Estructura socio-productiva y su
    relacin con el Ordenamiento urbano.SanJos,CostaRica,
    URBANOandUniversidaddeCostaRicaObservatorio
    delDesarrollo.http://www.odd.ucr.ac.cr/phocadownload/
    estructura-socioproductiva-y-su-relacion-con-el-orde-
    urbano.pdf(Accessed14August2011.)
    Pagiola,S.2006.Payments for Environmental Services in
    Costa Rica.WashingtonDC,WorldBank.http://www.oired.
    vt.edu/sanremcrsp/documents/research-themes/pes/
    PESCostaRica.pdf.
    SEPSA(SecretaraEjecutivadePlanicacinSectorial
    Agropecuaria).2009.Boletn Estadstico Agropecuario 19.
    SanJos,CostaRica,SEPSA.
    UNESCOIHP(UnitedNationsEducational,Scientic
    andCulturalOrganization,InternationalHydrological
    Programme).2007.Balance hdrico supercial de Costa
    Rica. Perodo: 19702002. DocumentosTcnicosdelPHI-
    LAC,No.10.Montevideo,Uruguay,UNESCOIHP.
    WHO/UNICEF(WorldHealthOrganization/UnitedNations
    ChildrensFund).2010.CostaRicacountryprole.
    Estimates for the Use of Improved Sanitation Facilities.
    JointMonitoringProgrammeforWaterSupplyand
    Sanitation(JMP).http://www.wssinfo.org/leadmin/user_
    upload/resources/CRI_san.pdf(Accessed3October2011.)
    WorldBank.2009.Costa Rica Country Note on Climate
    Change Aspects in Agriculture, 2009.WashingtonDC,
    WorldBank.http://tiny.cc/gqr2f(Accessed14August
    2011.)

    Acknowledgements GerenciadeIngenierayNormasTcnicas
    (SubdireccinGeneralTcnica),ComisinNacionaldelAgua
    -MarioLpezPrez,ColinHerron,MestreRodrguez
    CHAPTER 51
    LermaChapala basin, Mexico
    CONAGUA,Lerma-Santiago-PacicRiverBasinOrganization
    WWDR4 861 LERMACHAPALABASIN,MEXICO
    MAP 51.1
    LermaChapalabasin
    Location and general characteristics
    TheLermaRiveristhelongestinlandwatercourse
    intheUnitedMexicanStates(Mexicofromhereon).
    Itrisesatabout3,800mabovesealevelinwestern
    centralMexico.Aftercoveringadistanceof750km,
    theLermaowsintoLakeChapala(1,510mabove
    sealevel),whichisthelargestnaturallakeinMexico.
    TheentireLermaChapalabasinislocatedinahigh
    altitudeareawithmountainchainsandextensive
    valleys.Itcoversatotalareaof54,451km2and
    includesportionsofveStates:Mexico,Queretaro,
    Michoacn,GuanajuatoandJalisco.
    Overall,theclimateinthebasiniswarm.However,it
    rangesfromsemi-hotandhumidinthecentraland
    southernareas,todryandtemperateinthenorthern
    areas.Thewintersarerelativelycold,andthesummers
    aresemi-humid.Dependingonthelocation,rainfall
    variesfromaround270mmtomorethan1,000mm
    peryear,with825mmbeingtheaverage.Mostrainfall
    occursinthehighplateausandpeaksbetweenApril
    andearlyOctober,withthesecondhalfoftheseason
    (frommid-Juneuntilmid-October)usuallybringing
    theheaviestrainfall.
    TheLermaChapalabasinishometoapproximately10
    millionpeople.In2005,populationdensityinthebasin
    wasroughlyfourtimesthenationalaverage.Interms
    ofproductivity,thebasingenerated11.5%ofMexicos
    grossdomesticproduct(GDP)in2009.Industry
    representsalmost25%ofthebasinscontribution
    tothenationaleconomy.Theautomobileindustry
    isparticularlyadvanced,with50%ofthecountrys
    automobileproductionlocatedhere.Economicactivity
    isconcentratedinspeciccitiessuchasLeon,Silao,
    Toluca,Queretaro,Morelia,Irapuato,Salamancaand
    Celaya.Asaresult,morethan50%ofthebasinstotal
    value-addedproductiontakesplaceinjustsevenofits
    127municipalities.
    Water resources availability and their use
    ComparedtootherriverbasinsinMexico,theLerma
    Chapalabasinisnotrichintermsofwaterresources.
    TheLermaRiverhasaverageannualwaterpotential
    of4.9billionm3.Duringthedryseason,whichextends
    fromearlyNovemberuntilmid-May,itbecomesa
    shallowriverwithamodestow.LakeChapalaitselfis
    ashallowtropicallake,

    withmeandepthsof7.2m,and
    neverdeeperthan18malongits1150km2inuence
    area.Thelakeisthemostimportantwatersourcefor
    theGuadalajaraMetropolitanArea,providingalmost
    75%ofitswatersupply.Itswaterleveldropsrapidlyin
    responsetoover-useofwater,andrechargesrapidlyin
    therainyseason.
    Thereare40aquifersinthebasin,withacombined
    annualrenewablecapacityof4.1billionm3.
    Groundwaterisacrucialresourceinthebasinandis
    usedheavily.In2004,forexample,79.3%ofallwater
    rightsintheLermaChapalabasinweregrantedin
    0 20 40 60 80 km
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    JALISC LISCO SS JALI JALI JALI JALI JALI JALI JALI JALI JALI JALI JALI JALI JALI JALI JALIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL SCO ALIS IS IS I CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO JALIS SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS ALIS O S JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC ALIS ALIS ALIS ALIS ALIS ALIS ALIS ALIS ALIS ALIS ALIS ALIS ALIS ALIS ALIS LIS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLIS IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS IS SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
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    MEXI CO
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    National park
    Dam
    Basin
    Ramsar site
    Hydroelectric
    power plant
    862 LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN CHAPTER51
    relationtogroundwaterresources.Becauseofthis
    substantialuseofaquifers,overdraftinghasbeena
    concernsincetheearly1970s.Today,about70%of
    aquifersinthebasin,mostnotablyinGuanajuato,
    arebeingpushedbeyondtheirsustainablelimits.In
    fact,sincethe1980s,waterdemandhascommonly
    exceededavailabilityalmosteveryyear.Overall,total
    annualabstractionexceedsrechargebyapproximately
    1.3billionm3(2011).Whenthisiscombinedwithwater-
    qualitydegradationandimmigration,itisclearthatthe
    currentwateravailabilityperperson,whichstoodat
    932m3in2010,islikelytoworsen.
    Thebasinboaststhehighestrateofagriculturalland
    useinMexico,thankstoacombinationoffertile
    soilandfavourableclimaticconditions.In2000,
    approximately30,000km2ofland(56%ofthebasin)
    wasallocatedtoagriculture.Rainfedagricultureis
    mostcommon,practisedover41%ofthebasin,while
    therestofthecultivatedland(15%)isirrigated.Maize
    andsorghumarethemaincropsandareplantedon
    65%oftheagriculturalland.Waterdemandfrom
    thissectoraccountsforroughly80%ofallwater
    abstraction,whereasthesectorscontributiontoGDP
    isaround5%.Bycomparison,waterdemandfrom
    industryaccountsforlessthan4%ofoverallwateruse,
    whilethesectorgeneratesaround23%ofthebasins
    GDP(2009).
    Toimprovewaterefciencyinallsectors,water
    tarifshavebeenincreasedtoreectmoreaccurately
    therealcostofserviceprovisionandmaintenance.
    Between1989and1994,thepriceofirrigation
    waterincreasedten-fold.Inadditionsubsidieswere
    oferedfavouringfarminvestmentsthatledtomore
    efcientwateruse.Unfortunately,publicinterestis
    waningbecausethepay-outisseenasinsufcient,
    andinsomeareas,tarifsarestillwellbelowreal
    costs.Furthermore,becausethewaterrevenuegoes
    straighttotheMexicanFederalTreasury,andregions
    donotbenetdirectly,peopleswillingnesstopay
    remainslimited.Consequently,thereisanimmediate
    needtodeneappropriatemechanismsforthe
    redistributionofwaterrevenue.
    Climate change and water-related disasters
    Sincetheearly1920s,therehasbeenagradual
    increaseinthediferencebetweenmeansummer
    temperaturesandmeanwintertemperaturesor,in
    otherwords,warmersummersandcolderwinters.
    Suchtrendscanbeseenclearlybetween1985and
    2010,whenaveragetemperaturesrosebyalmost
    2Cinspringandsummer,anddroppedbyasimilar
    averageinwinter.
    Rainfallpatternsalsoindicateamovementtowards
    extremes:lessprecipitationduringthedryseason,
    withmoreviolentstorms;andgreatersurfacerun-of
    inthewetseason.Overall,inthe40-yearperiodupto
    2010,annualrainfallandsurfacerun-ofhasdecreased
    bysome3.6%.Sincethe1900s,analysisoflong-term
    rainfalldataindicatesaseriesofalternatingwetand
    dryperiods,eachlastingseveralyears.Droughtsoccur
    inthebasinalmosteverydecadeandmaylastupto
    veyearsormore.Themostrecentdrought,which
    lastedfor10yearsfrom1993until2003,isanotable
    example.In2002,thewaterlevelinLakeChapala
    droppedto14%ofitscapacity,thesecond-lowest
    levelrecordedsincedatacollectionbeganin1934.
    Theworstdroughtsusuallyoccurinthenorthernsub-
    basinswheretheclimateisdrier.
    Greaterclimaticvariationshaveafectedtheopposite
    endofthespectrumtoo,leadingtomorefrequent
    oods.Heavyrainfall(denedas20%ormoreabove
    themonthlyoryearlyaverage),ofanintensitythat
    leadstooodingdisasters,typicallyreturnsevery
    threetosixyears.Theprobabilityofoodsishigherin
    thesouthernpartofthebasin;however,suchevents
    alsoafectthecentralandwesternportionsofthe
    basin,withconsiderabledamagetourbansettlements,
    industryandfarmland.
    Over500damsandreservoirsinthebasinprovide
    structuralsafeguardsagainstwater-relatednatural
    disasters.However,increasingvulnerability,specically
    tooods,callsfortheadoptionofabasin-wide
    integratedstrategicplanthatcombinesbothlegislative
    andengineeringmeasures.
    Water and settlements: Health issues
    and poverty
    TheLermaChapalabasinishighlyurbanizedandan
    estimated77%ofthepopulationisconcentratedin
    itscities.Inaddition,thewaterresourcesofthebasin
    areusednotonlybythe10millioninhabitantsofthe
    basinareaitself,butalsobyanadditional5.5million
    peoplelivingoutsidethebasininthemetropolitan
    areasofMexicoCityandGuadalajara.Totalannual
    waterdemandisaround1.1billionm3.Ofthis,73%is
    WWDR4 863 LERMACHAPALABASIN,MEXICO
    suppliedfromgroundwaterresources.Thewatertarif
    inthebasinrangesfromUS$0.04toUS$0.12,the
    averagebeingUS$0.09.Tarifsystemsaredesigned
    tobenetthepoorandmarginalizedgroups,and,
    asaresult,chargesforlowwaterconsumptionare
    relativelyinsignicant.Overall,collectedfeescover
    onlyaround50%ofoperatingcosts.
    Water-relateddiseaseshavebeenonthedecline
    sincetheearly1930s.Atthesametime,the1991
    CleanWaterActrequiredlocalwaterutilitiestomeet
    nationalwaterqualitystandards.Consequently,
    morbidityandmortalitycausedbywater-related
    diseasesarenowadayspracticallynegligible.However,
    problemsdopersistinremoteruralareas,whichoften
    alsosuferfromlowincomes,lowlevelofeducation,
    poorinfrastructure,andwaterscarcity.Approximately
    1.5millionbasininhabitantslivebelowthenational
    povertyline(2008),andtheglobalnancialcrisisis
    expectedtoaddtothisproblem.However,extreme
    povertyandfaminearenon-existentinthebasin.
    Environment, ecosystems and water quality
    Mexicoisveryrichintermsofplantspecies,animals,
    andmicro-organisms.TheregioninwhichtheLerma
    Chapalabasinislocatedfostersawidediversityof
    oraandfaunathankstothevaryinglandscape,with
    itsmountains,lakes,theextensivemarshesofthe
    TolucaValley,andtheLermaRiveritself.Overall,there
    areover7,000speciesoforaandfaunaintheLerma
    Chapalabasin,includingmorethan800speciesof
    mammals,birds,reptiles,amphibiansandsh.The
    basinisparticularlydistinctiveinitsfreshwatersh
    endemism,as30ofthe42speciesofshfoundhere
    areunique.Inaddition,accordingtotheNational
    EcologyInstituteofMexico,988plantspeciesfound
    herehavevalueeitherfromaneconomicorfroman
    ecologicalpointofview.
    Thereare12protectedareas,includingtheMonarch
    ButterySanctuaryinMichoacn,theNevadode
    TolucaareaintheStateofMexico,andtheSierra
    GordainQueretaro,listedasCommonHeritageof
    Mankind.Unfortunately,changesinlandusepatterns
    stemmingfromurbanization,aswellasagricultural
    andindustrialdevelopment,haveputincreasing
    pressureonthisenvironmentanditsecosystems.For
    example,untreatedefuenthascausedseriouslocal
    andregionalpollutioninthebasin.By1989,most
    oftheriversinthebasinwerepolluted,and90%
    ofthereservoirofChapalaLakewasunsuitablefor
    drinkingorforbreedingsh.Groundwaterquality
    alsochangeddramatically,withseveralaquifers
    afectedbycontaminationfromurbansettlements
    andindustrialzones.Giventhiscriticalsituation,the
    federalgovernmentandthevestategovernmentsin
    theriverbasinsignedanagreementin1989withfour
    mainobjectives:formulationofanewwaterallocation
    policy,treatmentofrawmunicipalandindustrial
    efuentstoimprovewaterquality,increasedefciency
    inthewaywaterisused,andtheprotectionand
    conservationofthewaterresourcesofthebasin.Inline
    withthisagreement,therstphaseoftheRegional
    WaterTreatmentPlanwasputintoefect,withtheaim
    ofconstructing48newtreatmentplantsformunicipal
    wastewater.In1993,thesecondphaseofthePlanwas
    agreedbytheLermaChapalaRiverBasinCouncil,
    withtheaimofenlargingthosetreatmentplantsand
    allowingthemtotreat10,835l/sofefuent.Taking
    thosetwostagestogether,theaimwasthatabout
    80%ofallmunicipalwastewaterwouldbetreated.
    Therstphasewasstartedduringthe1990sand
    continuedduringtherstdecadeofthemillennium.
    However,mostoftheprogrammehasnotbeen
    implementedyet.Thesecondphaseisfacingnancial
    difculties.Ingeneral,thebasinhasthelargestwater
    treatmentcapacityintheregionandsincethe1990s,
    newtreatmentfacilitiesandtechnicalimprovements
    havebeenintroduced.Whilethereisprogress,and
    waterqualityhasimprovedinthebasinoverall,the
    fourobjectivesofthe1989agreementhaveyettobe
    accomplished.Thisslowprogresshasbeenattributed
    topoorenforcementoflaws,lackofpoliticalsupport,
    inadequatenancing,thelackofawaterculturebased
    onthepolluterpaysprinciple,andalackofawareness
    insocietyabouttheimportanceofwater.
    Anotherenvironmentalproblemthatafects36%
    ofthebasinissoildegradation,includingloss
    offertilityanderosion.Theformeristhemore
    criticalasithasanimpacton26%ofthebasin
    areawithseriousconsequencesforagricultural
    production.Unfortunately,therearenolarge-scale
    soilconservationprojectsorcapacitybuilding
    programmesforfarmerstoaddresstheseproblems.
    Water resources management
    and legislation
    InMexico,wateristhepropertyofthenationand
    itsmanagementistheresponsibilityofthefederal
    government.Article27oftheConstitutionsetsoutthe
    864 LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN CHAPTER51
    RiverbasincouncilsinMexicoderivetheirlegitimacyfromtheNationalWaterLaw.Theyhavethesustainableandintegrated
    managementandprotectionofwaterresourcesastheirultimatetarget.TheLermaChapalaRiverBasinCouncil,oneof26
    riverbasincouncilsinMexico,coordinatesactionamonggovernmentinstitutionsandstakeholders.Toaccomplishthisgoal,
    itbringstogethergovernmentofcials,waterusersandrepresentativesofNGOs.Bydenition,thecouncilisaconsultative
    bodythatcanproposeprogrammesforimplementationandspecicactionstoaddresschallenges,andsurveytheirperfor-
    mance.ItisalsoentitledtointervenetoconciliateproblemsbetweenusersandtorecommendspecicactionstoCONAGUA,
    thoughitisnotentitledtomakedecisions.
    TheLermaChapalaRiverBasinCouncilisneitheraregulatorybodynoraserviceprovider.Itisaforumwithinwhichstake-
    holderscanmeetoneanother,andmeetgovernmentofcials,toexaminecomplaints,searchforsolutions,raiseissues,and
    promoteprojectsofvaryingscope.Insummary,thecouncilisamechanismforidentifyingproblemsanddealingwithcompe-
    titionandconicts.
    mainguidelinesforwaterresourcesmanagementand
    landresourcesmanagement.Afederalwaterlaw,derived
    fromthisarticle,wasenactedduringthe1960s.Thiswas
    followedbytheNationalWaterPlanin1975.In1989,
    theNationalWaterCommission(ComisinNacionaldel
    Agua-CONAGUA)wasestablishedasthefederalwater
    authorityresponsibleforoverallplanning,management
    andthedevelopmentofnationalwaterresources.Its
    broadresponsibilitiesincludedtheallocationofwater
    amongitsusers,thecollectionofwatertarifs,andthe
    planning,construction,andoperationofhydraulicworks.
    In1992,theNationalWaterLawwasenactedto
    improvewatermanagement.Onenotableaspectwas
    theestablishmentofawaterrightssystemandthe
    creationofapublicregistryenablinguserstobuy
    andsellwaterrights(Arregun-Cortsetal.,2007).
    TheNationalWaterLawalsoprovidedthelegal
    foundationforthecreationofriverbasincouncils
    (RBCs)ascoordinatingagencies.Asof2010,26
    RBCswereestablished.Beingattheforefrontofthe
    nationalwaterresourcesdevelopmentagenda,the
    rstbasincouncilinLermaChapalawascreatedas
    earlyas1993,bringingwaterusersfromdiferent
    sectorstogether.Today,itscompositionismuchlarger,
    withrepresentativesoffederal,stateandmunicipal
    government,wateruserassociationsandsocial
    organizations(Box51.1).
    BOX 51.1
    TheLermaChapalaRiverBasinCouncil
    *
    MinistryofEnvironmentandNatural
    Resources(SecretaradeMedio
    AmbienteyRecursosNaturales
    SEMARNAT)
    MinistryofFinanceandPublicCredit
    (SecretariadeHaciendayCrdito
    Pblico-SHCP)
    MinistryofSocialDevelopment
    (SecretariadeDesarrolloSocial
    -SEDESOL)
    MinistryofEnergy(Secretarade
    Energa-SENER)
    MinistryofEconomy(Secretariade
    Economa-SE)
    MinistryofHealth(Secretariade
    Salud-SALUD)
    MinistryofAgriculture,Livestock,
    RuralDevelopment,Fisheriesand
    Food(SecretariadeAgricultura,
    Ganadera,DesarrolloRural,Pescay
    Alimentacin-SAGARPA)
    TechnicalGroundwaterCommittee
    (ComitTcnicodeAguas
    SubterrneasCOTAS)
    Lerma-ChapalaRiverBasinCouncilComposition.2008
    BasinCommittees,
    Watershed
    Committeesand
    COTAS*
    Operation
    management
    BasinCouncil
    Operationand
    MonitoringCommittee
    GeneralWaterUsers
    andCivilSociety
    Assembly
    Specializedgroups
    Functional
    Body
    Functional
    Bodies
    Steeringcomittee
    President
    1echnicalSecretary
    Subsidiary
    workbodies
    Subregionalandstateusers'committeesperwateruse
    WaterUsersandCivilSociety
    Representatives
    Atleast50%Agriculture,other
    AgriculturalFarmingactivi-
    ties,PowerGeneration,Industry,
    Livestock,UrbanPublicServices
    RepresentativesofStateand
    MunicipalGovernments
    Notmorethan35%
    Guanajuato,Jalisco,Mexico,
    MichoacanandQueretaro
    FederalGovernment
    Representatives*
    SEMARNAT,SHCP,SEDESOL,
    SENER,SE,SALUD,SAGARPA
    865 WWDR4 LERMACHAPALABASIN,MEXICO
    In1994,CONAGUAbecameapartoftheEnvironment,
    NaturalResources,andFishingSecretariat,which
    hadtheaimofintensifyingnationalefortstowards
    sustainabledevelopment.In2000,thisbecame
    theMinistryofEnvironmentandNaturalResources
    (Tortajada,2005).In2004,theNationalWaterLaw
    wasrevisedsothatwaterrights,andtheirtransmission
    fromoneusertoanother,couldbeidentiedand
    trackedmoreeasily.Thesamerevisionintroduced
    integratedwaterresourcesmanagement(IWRM)
    withaconictresolutiondimension.Thereformalso
    allowedforthecreationofriverbasinorganizations
    (whichareregionaladministrativebranchesof
    CONAGUA)andbolsteredtheroleofriverbasin
    councilsasautonomousconsultativebodies.However,
    inspiteofcontinuingeforts,acentralized(top-down)
    managementapproachstillprevails.Thiscallsfor
    furtheremphasisonthepromotionofIWRM.
    Conclusions
    TheLermaChapalabasinhasexperiencedstrong
    demographicandeconomicgrowth,withahigh
    increaseinwaterdemand.Unfortunately,that
    demandhasnowreachedthepointatwhichithas
    surpassedthecurrentlimitofrenewablewater
    resourcesavailability.Whileincreasingwaterefciency
    inallsectorsisdesirable,reducingagricultural
    waterconsumptionfromitscurrentlevelof80%of
    allwaterabstractedisanecessityforsustainable
    developmentinthebasin.Worseningpollutionload
    hasledtodegradationoftheenvironmentandof
    waterresources.Efortstoaugmentthecapacity
    ofwastewatertreatmentplantshavehelpedto
    improvewaterqualityandenvironmentalconditions.
    However,theRegionalWaterTreatmentPlan,which
    wasinitiallyintroducedintheearly1990s,hasyet
    tobeimplementedfully.Poorenforcementoflaws,
    mainlystemmingfromlackofpoliticalsupportand
    inadequatenancing,isanimportantdimensionof
    continuingpollution.TherevisedNationalWaterLaw
    isanimportantmilestonebecauseitclearlyintroduces
    theintegratedwaterresourcesmanagement(IWRM)
    approach.Ontheotherhand,centralmanagementof
    waterresourcescontinuestooperateinparallel.For
    thatreason,theongoingprocessofstrengthening
    therolesofriverbasinorganizationsandriver
    basincouncilsconstitutesastrategicpriorityboth
    nationallyandlocally.Atthebasinlevel,successful
    implementationofIWRMiscrucialbecauseitisthe
    rststeptominimizingthenegativeefectsofclimatic
    variability,andstoppingunsustainablelevelsofwater
    useallowingholisticandefectivemanagementof
    thebasinslimitedresources.Consequently,tough
    measuresthatregulatewaterresourcesdemandand
    improvetheefciencyofwateruseandreuseare
    essential,andaregraduallyandsuccessfullybeing
    implemented.

    References
    Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,informationinthis
    concisesummaryisadaptedfromthe2011, Lerma
    Chapala Basin Case Study: A Fruitful Sustainable Water
    Management Experience.MexicoCity,CONAGUA
    (NationalWaterCommission,Mexico)(forthcoming).
    Arregun-Corts,F.andLpez-Prez,M.2007. An Overview
    of Mexicos Water Regime and the Role of Groundwater:
    Proceedings of a Workshop on Sustainable Management
    of Groundwater in Mexico.ScienceandTechnologyfor
    SustainabilityProgram.MexicoCity,CONAGUA(National
    WaterCommission,Mexico).
    Tortajada,C.2005.Riverbasinmanagementapproaches
    inMexico.VertigO - la revue lectronique en sciences
    de lenvironnement,specialissue.http://vertigo.revues.
    org/1927.(Accessed10November2011.)
    866
    BOXES, TABLES, FIGURES AND MAPS
    BOXES
    37.1 Agricultureandfoodsecurity 782
    38.1 Paymentforecosystemservices 790
    39.1 Anewerainconservationalthinking 796
    41.1 DroughtsheavytollonAustralia 807
    42.1 SedimentmanagementstrategiesintheYellowRiverbasin 812
    43.1 Managementtoolsagainstextremeevents 818
    44.1 The2010FloodinPakistan 824
    46.1 TheuseofrenewableenergyintheMPM 833
    47.1 Developingknowledgeandcapacity:IrrinetandIrrinetplus 838
    48.1 TheWaterLawandtheriverbasindistrictadministrations 845
    50.1 Potentialimplicationsofclimatechangeonagriculture 857
    51.1 TheLermaChapalaRiverBasinCouncil 864
    TABLES
    38.1 WaterusebysectorintheMaraRiverbasin(2006) 787
    38.2 RateofaccesstowaterresourcesintheMaraRiverbasin 789
    38.3 RateofaccesstosanitationfacilitiesintheMaraRiverbasin 789
    41.1 Averagesurfacewateruse 805
    42.1 GDPofprovincesintheYellowRiverbasin(2006) 811
    43.1 GroundwaterdevelopmentanduseinJejuIsland 815
    43.2 AccesstoimprovedwatersupplyinJejuProvince 818
    45.1 BasiccharacteristicsofmajorriverbasinsintheCzechRepublic 827
    47.1 ExtentofregionsanddistributionoftheTiberRiverbasin 837
    47.2 Basicregionalstatisticsaboutagriculturallanduse(2007) 837
    47.3 ContributionofvarioussectorstoGDPatthenational,CentralApenninesDistrictandTiberRiverbasinlevels 837
    49.1 AnnualwaterusebycategoryintheStJohnsRiverbasin,2010 849
    FIGURES
    40.1 Fluctuationinwaterresourcesavailabilitybetween1945and2010 800
    41.1 Totalsysteminows,surfacewateruseanddamstoragecapacityintheMurray-Darlingbasin 805
    43.1 Trendinannualdamageandcasualtiesbywater-relateddisasters 817
    45.1 SurfacewaterabstractionintheCzechRepublicbetween1980and2009 828
    46.1 EvolutionofwaterconsumptionintheMPMfrom1995to2009 833
    MAPS
    Regionaldistributionofthecasestudies iv
    37.1 Ghana 780
    38.1 MaraRiverbasin 787
    39.1 JordanRiverbasin 793
    41.1 MurrayDarlingbasin 804
    42.1 YellowRiverbasin 810
    43.1 JejuIsland 815
    44.1 IndusRiverbasin 821
    45.1 CzechRepublic 827
    46.1 MarseilleProvenceMtropoleUrbanCommunity 831
    47.1 TiberRiverbasinandCentralApenninesDistrict 836
    48.1 TagusRiverbasin 843
    49.1 StJohnsRiverbasin 848
    50.1 CostaRica 854
    51.1 LermaChapalabasin 861
    FACINGTHECHALLENGES
    9 789231 042355
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    work of 28 UN-Water members and partners in the triennial World Water Development Report (WWDR).
    This agship report is a comprehensive review that gives an overall picture of the worlds freshwater resources. It
    analyses pressures from decisions that drive demand for water and afect its availability. It ofers tools and response
    options to help leaders in government, the private sector and civil society address current and future challenges. It
    suggests ways in which institutions can be reformed and their behaviour modied, and explores possible sources of
    nancing for the urgently needed investment in water.
    The WWDR4 is a milestone within the WWDR series, reporting directly on regions and highlighting hotspots, and it
    has been mainstreamed for gender equality. It introduces a thematic approach Managing Water under Uncertainty
    and Risk in the context of a world which is changing faster than ever in often unforeseeable ways, with increasing
    uncertainties and risks. It highlights that historical experience will no longer be sufcient to approximate the
    relationship between the quantities of available water and shifting future demands. Like the earlier editions, the
    WWDR4 also contains country-level case studies describing the progress made in meeting water-related objectives.
    The WWDR4 also seeks to show that water has a central role in all aspects of economic development and social
    welfare, and that concerted action via a collective approach of the water-using sectors is needed to ensure waters
    many benets are maximized and shared equitably and that water-related development goals are achieved.

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