/

)
-

)
.(
/ /

).
________________________________

/ /

)
.
)

(
(

(
(

)
(Y)

) [R(Rain), A(Area)]
:

...

Y = F (R , A)

Y = a + bR + cA
:
(

Y = a + bR + cA + U
Observation

(a,b,c )

OLS

:Y
: R
:A

Multiple Regression
OLS
Minitab 11 for Windows

.
(

:
:
(

)
OLS

:
Var ( ) = S 2 ( X / X ) 1

Standard Error of Estimation

:
n

S2 =

i =1

nk

(k)

(n)

:
SbR =

S2

S2

Sb A =

R2
i =1

i =1

) :t-test : t

)
(t)

:
(Null Hypothesis) Ho: b=0 :
(Alternative Hypothesis) 1: b0
t=

(t)

b
Sb

(t)

(t)
(t)

(t)

(t)

(t)
.

Coefficient of determination Testing

:R

R2

(R2)

(t)
.

...

(R2)
:

SST = (Yi Y ) 2
i =1

[SST]

(Sum Square Total)

.
n

SSU = (Yi Y ) 2
i =1

.
2

SSE = (Yi Y ) 2
i =1

SST = SSE + SSU

SSU
SST

1 = R2 +

SST
R2 = 1

SSU
SST

R 2 = R2 =

n 1
(1 R 2 )
nk

.
F-Testing : F
.(Ostel,1963, 227)

F=

R 2 /(k 1)
(1 R 2 )( n k )

(R2=0)

(R2)

(F)

(R2 )
(F)

(F)

(F)

(F)

(n-k) (k-1)
(F)

:
( Smith,1981,P203) :Durbin Watson-Test (D.W)

( et 1 , et )
:
n

D .W =

(e
t=2

et = f (et 1) :

(D.W)

e t 1 ) 2

e
t =1

2
t

(du,dL)
(du)

IF D.W < dL
IF dL D.W . du
IF du D.W 4 du
IF 4 du D.W 4 dL
IF 4 D.W 4 dL

(dL)

(D.W)

...

( 0 D.W 4 )

Ho

dL

du

4-du

4-dL

Minitab 11 for Windows

.
-

( )
-

(ANOVA Table)
F
P-Value
0.0000

21.91

R-Square
(adjusted for d.f)
66.567

M.S.
3.26904E10
1.4923E9

S.S
6.53808E10
2.83536E10

D.F.
2
19
21

R-Square

Durbin Watson

Estimation

69.7511

1.93079

-29592.2
22.2337
0.252426

Y =-29592.2 + 22.2337*Area + 0.252426 * Rain

t = (-0.77391)
(0.499192)
(6.57041)

S.O.V.
Model
Residual
Total

Parameter
Constant
Rain
Area

...

Forecasting value
140036
142106
144177
146247
148318
150388
152459
154529
156600

Period

ID
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

= MAD

( )
-

(ANOVA Table)
P-Value
0.0000

M.S.

45.93

9.88885E9
2.15303E8

R-Square
(adjusted for d.f)
81.0571

R-Square
82.8612

S.S
1.97777E10
4.09076E9

D.F.
2
19
21

Durbin Watson

Estimation

1.2059

-17842.1
0.248162
8.65827

Y =-17842.1 + 0.248162*Area + 8.65827 * Rain

t= (-1.03361)
(8.71288)
(0.45508)

S.O.V.
Model
Residual
Total

Parameter
Constant
Rain
Area

...

Forecasting value
59693.8
61919.9
64146.1
66372.3
68598.5
70824.7
73050.9
75277.1
77503.3

Period

ID
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

= MAD

( )
-

(ANOVA Table)
P-Value

0.000

597.05

R-Square
(adjusted for d.f)
98.2689

M.S.
2.80947E8
470559.0

S.S

D.F.

5.61894E8
8.94063E6

2
19
21

R-Square

Durbin Watson

Estimation

98.4338

1.73135

414.782
0.491224
0.236781

:
Y = 414.782

+ 0.491224*Area 0.236781 * Rain

S.O.V.
Model
Residual
Total

Parameter
Constant
Rain
Area

...

t = (0.691206)

(33.0908)

(-0.286264)

Forecasting value
6849.82
7105.94
7362.06
7618.18
7874.31
8130.43
8386.55
8642.67
8898.79

Period

ID
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

= MAD

.
(Y)
(F,R T)

(D.W.)

Area, Rain

.
(F,R T)
2

(69.75%)
(Area, Rain)

(R2)
(Y)

(21.91)

(F)
(5%)

(3.52)

.
(D.W.)
(et-1,et)
:
Y =-29592.2+22.2337*Rain + 0.252426 * Area

.
(R )
2

(Y)
(F,R T)

(Y)

(%
(Area, Rain)

(F)

)
(% )
.

...

(D.W.)
(et-1,et)
:
Y =-17842.1+0.248162*Rain + 8.65827 * Area

.
(Y)
(F,R2 T)

(R )
2

(Y)

.
(%

(Area, Rain)
(

(F)
(% )

(
(

)
.

(D.W.)
(et-1,et)

%)

:
Y =414.782+0.491224*Area 0.236781 * Rain
A

.
(

.)

"

"

"

"
"
.
"

"(

"
-

nd

1. Bernard, O., "Statistics in Research",2 .,The lowa State university press, 1963.
2. Drapper Smith, "Applied Regression Analysis "John Wiley andf Sons, 1981.

...

Forecasting Elements for an Acre of Crops (Wheat, Barley and Rice) In

Suleimanyah Governorate from 2002 to 2010
ABSTRCACT
With increasing the planted area with crops and availability of enough amounts of rains, the
crops production might raise, as there is a proportional relation between size of production and
the affected factors of growth (the planted area and the amount of rains).
The significant point in this research is the forecast about the amount of productions for the
period of 2005-2010 to find out the amounts of productions in the upcoming years, recognize
the shortages in the productions along with continuous increasing in population size and
identify the size of the gap between productions amounts and (Supply and Demand) on those
corps.
The aim is to take necessary procedures by the Governmental Institutions to decrease the
gap between the Supply and Demand on those corps inside the country.Moreover, working on
increasing those productions for populations. This is a better solution than importing them from
outside, as this will lead to find job opportunity and use of the agricultural land on the other
hand. This will be done through increasing agricultural land and using developed technology
method.