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15/08/2011

1
Cu hi nhanh v th trng ti chnh
Phan ng My Phng
Ngn hng c nhng nghip
v no?
a. Cho vay tin
b. Nhn tin gi
c. a ra nhng li khuyn v u t
d. Tt c u ng
Cc cng c ti chnh bao gm:
a) Cc loi giy t c gi c mua bn
trn th trng ti chnh.
b) C phiu u i v phiu n chuyn
i.
c) Thng phiu v nhng bo lnh ca
ngn hng (Banks Acceptances).
d) Cc phng tin thanh ton khng
dng tin mt.
Chc nng duy nht ca th trng ti chnh l:
a) Chuyn giao vn, bin tit kim thnh
u t.
b) T chc cc hot ng ti chnh.
c) To iu kin cho cc doanh nghip c
qung b hot ng v sn phm.
d) p ng nhu cu vay v cho vay ca cc
ch th khc nhau trong nn kinh t.
15/08/2011
2
Nhn nh no m t ng nht
v 1 hp ng quyn chn
(option)?
a. Hp ng a ra quyn mua hay bn
vi gi nh sn ti thi im trong
tng lai
b. Hp ng vi li sut c nh
c. Hp ng bt buc phi mua hay bn
vi gi nh sn ti mt ngy trong
tng lai
d. Tt c u ng
Ngi i vay thch trng hp
no?
a. Li sut tng
b. Li sut gim
c. Li sut di hn cao hn li sut ngn
hn
d. Li sut di hn thp hn li sut
ngn hn
Th no l chng khon ti
chnh?
a. C phiu u i do doanh nghip pht
hnh
b. Tri phiu do doanh nghip pht hnh
c. Ti sn ti chnh c th giao dch trn
th trng
d. Tt c u sai.
Chng trnh mn hc
Nhng vn chung v h thng ti chnh
Th trng tin t
Th trng vn
Cc nghip v trn th trng chng khon
Phn tch chng khon
Chng khon phi sinh
Trung gian ti chnh
15/08/2011
3
Ti liu tham kho
Th trng vn NXB HKTQD 2008
Th trng chng khon GSTS L Vn
t 2005
Th trng chng khon-NXBLXH
2006
Bi tp phn tch v nh gi chng
khon-NXBTK 2006
Website
www.elearning.due.edu.vn
Khoa Ti chnh Ngn hng
B mn ti chnh
Mn Th trng v inh ch ti chnh
Password:finance
www.vneconomy.com.vn
www.ssi.com.vn
nh gi
Chuyn cn :20%
Kim tra cui chng (theo nhm)
Vng 1 bui tr 1 im
im gia k:20%
Bi tp ln
im cui k:
Trc nghim
Phn nhm
Mi nhm ti a 8 sinh vin
15/08/2011
4
QUY TC LP HC
KHNG NI CHUYN LC GiNG BI
KHNG iN THOI RENG
NGHIM TC HC
Chng 1
NHNG VN CHUNG V
H THNG TI CHNH
Ni dung
H thng ti chnh
nh ch ti chnh
Cng c ti chnh
Th trng ti chnh
Ti chnh
H thng thanh ton
H thng ti chnh
H thng ti chnh bao gm cc nh ch ti
chnh v th trng ti chnh, gip ngun vn
lun chuyn t ngi cho vay/ ngi u t
n ngi i vay.
+ Cc nh ch pht trin cc cng c v sn
phm ti chnh khuyn khch ngi c vn
nhn ri u t, ngi thiu ht vay vn
+ H thng ti chnh a ra c s chnh
ph tc ng n ngun vn
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5
H thng ti chnh hiu qu
S tng trng kinh t ca 1 quc gia s chu
tc ng rt nhiu t h thng ti chnh:
+ Duy tr h thng thanh ton an ton,
hp l, cnh tranh
+ m bo nhu cu ca nh u t v
ngi cho vay c trng khp
+ Ri ro th trng s c kim ch
thch hp
S tn ti n nh, pht trin ca th trng v
nh ch ti chnh rt quan trng
Vai tr ca Th trng ti chnh
Nng cao nng sut v hiu qu ca
nn kinh t
To mi trng thun li dung ha
cc li ch kinh t ca cc ch th kinh
t
Xc nh gi tr th trng ca doanh
nghip
nh ch ti chnh
T chc nhn tin gi
T chc ngn hng bn bun
Cng ty ti chnh
Qu u t
Question
Financial intermediaries are firms whose
principal business is:
A) making investment decisions in
property, plant and equipment
B) taking deposits, making loans, and
buying securities
C) ensuring that security prices follow a
random walk
D) all of the above are true
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Th trng ti chnh
Th trng ti chnh l ni nhng cng
c ti chnh c giao dch.C 5 th
trng chnh
Th trng vn
Th trng tin t
Th trng tri phiu
Th trng ngoi hi
Th trng phi sinh
Cng c ti chnh
Cng c ti chnh th hin dng tin c th
trong tng lai
Phn nh gi tr hin ti ca dng tin tng lai
Cc cng c ti chnh giao dch trn th
trng ti chnh c gi l cc chng khon
ti chnh
C 3 loi cng c ti chnh : vn, n v phi
sinh
Cng c vn
Pht hnh cc c phiu thng
C ng s nhn c quyn s hu
doanh nghip v nhn c tc nu doanh
nghip c li trong tng lai
Hot ng u t vo c phiu c xem
l u t v hn v c ri ro rt cao
C phiu u i
C phiu chuyn i
Cng c n
Lin quan n s tin mn hm nay
(gi tr hin ti) s c tr vi li sut
thi im sau (gi tr tng lai)
Ngi i vay s tr li sut cao nu xc
sut khng tr n cao
Khi o hn s phi hon tr s tin cho
vay (mnh gi); li tc c nh.
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Questions
Disadvantage of debt financing is:
a) debt increases financial risk
b) debt may restrict management
freedom
c) A and B are both true
d) debt increases tax due to
deductibility of interest expense
Cng c phi sinh
Nhng tha thun xc nh quyn mua hoc bn mt
lng hng ha c s vi cc iu khon cam kt
trc ti mt thi im trong tng lai.
Hp ng phi sinh khng c dng huy ng vn i vi
ngi i vay hay u t vn i vi ngi cho vay
c s dng ch yu c nhn hay doanh nghip trnh
nhng bin ng gi c th trng ( ri ro TGH, li sut)
Gi tr ca n c tch ri khi gi tr ca cc cng c giao dch
trn th trng vn v n
V d: hp ng t gi k hn, hp ng tng lai, hp ng
quyn chn, hp ng hon i
Cu hi
Phn bit cng c n v cng c vn
Phn bit cng c phi sinh v cng c
vn
Nu ra nhng l do doanh nghip huy
ng vn bng cng c n hn cng c
vn?
Nu u t, anh (ch) la chn cng c
n hay cng c vn?
V d
T1: Cng ty X c 100 c phiu
A:55 cp
B:20
C:25
T2: Pht hnh thm 50 c phiu
A: 55 cp
B:70
C:25
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Th trng s cp
Giao dch cc cng c ti chnh trong
ln u tin huy ng vn cho t
chc pht hnh, nn kinh t.
Th trng th cp
Giao dch cc cng c ti chnh c
pht hnh trn th trng s cpto
ra tnh thanh khon cho cc cng c ti
chnh
Ti chnh ( financing)
C 2 phng thc dng vn lu chuyn t
ngi u t v ngi i vay:
Ti chnh trc tip
Ngi u t v ngi i vay lin h trc tip vi nhau
Ngi i vay pht hnh chng khon trn th trng ti
chnh v ngi u t s mua chng khon ny
Ti chnh gin tip
Ngi u t v ngi i vay lin h gin tip vi nhau
Ngi u t gi tin vo nh ch ti chnh(ni c
quyn s dng ngun qu )
Li sut v ph
Ti chnh trc tip
Ngi i vay v cho vay u thng qua ngi mi
gii
Ngi i vay v ngi cho vay tr tin cho cc dch v
ny bng ph hay hoa hng
Ti chnh gin tip
T chc nhn tin gi nhn tin li t cc khon
cho vay v tr tin li cho nhng khon tin gi
Li nhun ca cc t chc nhn tin gi da vo chnh
lch li sut v mt s loi ph p dng i vi cc khon
tin huy ng v cho vay
Chnh lch li sut= li sut trung bnh ti sn li sut
trung bnh trn n phi tr
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Ri ro tn dng
Ri ro ngi i vay khng th hon tr cc
khon n (vn gc v li) i vi ngi s
hu cc cng c ti chnh. nh hng n
cc bn trong ti chnh trc tip v gin tip
Trong ti chnh trc tip ngi cho vay chu tc
ng trc tip
Ngi mi gii ch gip cc giao dch din ra tri chy
Trong ti chnh gin tip, cc t chc nhn tin
gi chu gnh nng trc tip ca ri ro tn dng
Cc t chc nhn tin gi phi thc hin nhng cam kt
i vi ngi u t thm ch khi ngi i vay khng th
hon tr n
Ri ro thng tin bt i xng
Tnh trng m trong mt giao dch, cc
bn tham gia c thng tin khng ngang
bng nhau
s la chn i nghch (ngi tha vn
li la chn i tc c hiu qu s dng
vn km)
ri ro o c (bn c nhiu thng tin c
tnh la o bn thiu thng tin)
Thun li ca ti chnh trc tip
Din ra ch yu trn th trng bn s
Ngi i vay vi ch s tn nhim cao c
th huy ng vn vi gi thp
Nh u t khng phi lun mua nhng
chng khon pht hnh
Nh u t thch u t ngn hn trong
khi ngi cho vay mun vay di hn. Nh
u t khng mua chng khon m c tnh
thanh khon thp
Thun li ca ti chnh gin tip
Chuyn i k hn
Gim thiu ri ro tn dng
Li th v phm vi
Chuyn i ti sn
15/08/2011
10
H thng thanh ton
H thng thanh ton ca nn kinh t
m bo cho ngun vn dng dch
chuyn thng qua cc giao dch
Giao dch thanh ton c chia thnh 2
loi:bn l ( gi tr thp), bn s (gi tr
ln)
Thanh ton khng dng tin
mt bn l
Th tn dng
Th ghi N
Tn dng trc tip
Sc
Ghi N trc tip
Chuyn tin
H thng thanh ton khng dng tin
mt lin quan n chuyn tin t ti
khon ngi tr sang ti khon ngi
th hng
Giao dch rt d dng nu cc bn c ti
khon ti cng nh ch ti chnh
Nu cc bn c ti khon ti cc t chc
ti chnh khc nhau th vic thanh ton da
trn giao dch b tr gia cc t chc
Cu hi
a ra v d v mi lin h gia nh
ch ti chnh, th trng ti chnh v
cng c ti chnh
Nu r s khc nhau gia ti chnh trc
tip v ti chnh gin tip
Nu 4 cng c thanh ton khng dng
tin mt theo th t gim dn v tnh
thng xuyn
15/08/2011
11
Cu hi
Nu nhng tnh hung lm gim chnh lch
li sut ca ngn hng
Nu ra nhng l do doanh nghip huy ng
vn bng cng c n hn cng c vn
Hy gii thch ngn hng c th gii quyt
vn khng trng hp v k hn xy ra khi
cho vay vn di hn bng ngun vn huy
ng ngn hn
Cu hi
Mt s nh kinh t cho rng nn kinh t cc
nc ang pht trin tng trng chm l do
khng c th trng ti chnh pht trin
mnh.Hy gii thch
Th trng th cp khng quan trng bng
th trng s cp v n khng to thm tin
cho cc doanh nghip.ng hay sai?
Phn bit ti sn ti chnh, cng c ti chnh,
chng khon
Phn bit cng c N, cng c vn v cng
c phi sinh
Gi tr li cc cu hi
Thnh phn ca h thng ti chnh
nh ch ti chnh:Ngn hng, cng ty bo him
Cng c ti chnh: c phiu,khon vay, tin gi c k hn
Th trng ti chnh: Th trng c phiu, th trng ngoi
hi
Mi quan h gia th trng ti chnh v nn kinh t
H thng ti chnh h tr cho cc giao dch kinh t
Khuyn khch tit kim , to iu kin cho u t
a ra nhiu c hi u t
a ra nhiu la chn vay vn
Phn b ngun lc c hiu qu gip tng trng kinh t
Gip tng cng v duy tr s n nh ca h thng ti
chnh
Gi tr li
Ti sn ti chnh th hin cam kt c
dng tin trong tng lai
Cng c ti chnh l 1 ti sn ti chnh
m gi tr ca n c th hin trn
giy hoc trn chng t in t
Chng khon ti chnh l 1 ti sn ti
chnh c th c giao dch trn th
trng ti chnh
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Gi
Cng c n l khon n phi c hon tr
theo nhng iu kin trong hp ng vay:tr
li v gc.Hp ng vay phi nu r thi gian
v dng tin:loi li sut v mc li sut, thi
hn vay, chu k tr n
Cng c vn th hin quyn s hu. C ng
s c hng li tc hoc s b thit hi
tng ng s tin b ra.Cng c vn khng
c ngy n hn
Cng c phi sinh: khng ch nhng ri ro
c th
Chng 2
TH TRNG TiN T
Khi nim
Th trng tin t (TTTT) l th trng trao i, mua
bn cc ngun vn ngn hn
thi hn ti a 1 nm
Thanh ton 1 ln bng mnh gi khi ti hn, li sut n
Gi lun thp hn mnh gi (chng khon chit khu)
Ch th tham gia: Ngn hng thng mi, ngn
hng trung ng, cc t chc phi ti chnh (chnh
ph, chnh quyn a phng v cc cng ty), cc t
chc ti chnh phi ngn hng v cc c nhn h gia
nh.
Chc nng
Chuyn vn tm thi nhn ri sang
ngi thiu vn.
iu ho vn gia cc ngn hng
thng mim bo ngun vn kinh
doanh hay m bo kh nng thanh
ton cho cc NHTM
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Vai tr
to ra mi trng sinh li cho cc c
nhn, doanh nghip
to iu kin thun li cho cc NH kinh
doanh iu chnh mc d tr
ni thc thi nghip v th trng m
ca ngn hng trung ng tc ng
n s pht trin kinh t.
nh gi
Chng khon ngn hn c pht hnh v
giao dch ti mt mc gi thp hn so vi
mnh gi
) *
100
( 365
365 *
*
100
1 ngydenhan
lisuat
Menhgia
t
laisuat
Menhgia
gi
+
=
+
=
t = ngy n hn/365
Li sut k hn nm gi (HPY) =
t Gimua
Gibn 1
* ) 1 (
Tc ng ca st gim ngy n hn
Gi ca chng khon s tng khi ngy
n hn gim
Cn t thi gian hn cho n khi mnh gi
c tr
Tc ng ca li sut thay i
Gi ca chng khon s tng (gim)
nu li sut gim (tng)
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Bn trc ngy n hn
Cc cng c ca th trng tin t thng bn trc
ngy n hn.Bi v:
Ngi nm gi ch mun u t trong vi ngy
Ngi nm gi mun chuyn i sang tin mt
C loi chng khon khc hp dn hn
Nu nh u t gi chng khon n khi ti hn h
s c nhn li sut n hn
Li sut n hn= li sut mua
Nu nh u t bn chng khon trc hn h s
nhn c li sut ca k hn nm gi
Li sut ca k hn nm gi li sut mua
Cng c lu thng trn th trng tin t
Tn phiu kho bc (Treasury bill)
Thng phiu (Commercial Paper)
Chp phiu ngn hng(Bankers Acceptances)
Hp ng mua li (Repurchase Agreement-
Repo)
Chng ch tin gi (Certificate of Deposits)
Qu lin bang
la chu u
Cu hi
Trong cc cng c ca th trng tin t, loi
no s c li cao nht?Loi no c li thp
nht?
Trong cc cng c ca th trng tin t, loi
no c giao dch si ng nht trn th
trng th cp
V sao CD ngy cng chim u th so vi cc
khon tin gi tit kim nh k?
Tn phiu kho bc (Treasury
bill)
Tn phiu kho bc l cng c vay n ngn hn ca
chnh ph do Kho bc pht hnh b p cho
nhng thiu ht tm thi ca ngn sch nh nc.
Chng khon chit khu - c bn vi gi
thp hn mnh gi. Khi n hn, nh u t
c nhn li mnh gi
Phn chnh lch gia mnh gi chng khon
v gi mua chng khon chnh l li ca nh
u t.
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Tn phiu kho bc (Treasury
bill)
K hn thanh ton: 1,2,6,9,12 thng
ri ro thp nht trn th trng tin t mc li
sut thp hn cc cng c th trng tin t khc
Tnh lng cao nht
Tn phiu kho bc c NHTW s dng iu hnh
chnh sch tin t thng qua th trng m
Ch th nm gi:NHTM nm gi, cn lng nh do
dn c, cc doanh nghip v nhng trung gian ti
chnh khc nm gi.
Tn phiu kho bc thng c pht hnh theo tng
l bng phng php u gi
Tn phiu kho bc Vit Nam
Tn phiu KBNN do B Ti chnh pht
hnh huy ng vn b p thm ht
NSNN
Tn phiu NHNN thc hin chnh
sch tin t.
Pht hnh thng qua ngn hng nh
nc Vit Nam.
Thng phiu (Commercial Paper)
Thng phiu l nhng giy nhn n
do cc cng ty c uy tn pht hnh
vay vn ngn hn t th trng ti
chnh.
Pht hnh theo hnh thc chit khu
Cc thng phiu c mc ri ro cao
hn tn phiu kho bc mc li sut
chit khu cng cao hn.
Thng phiu (Commercial
Paper)
C 2 hnh thc :
Hi phiu l chng ch c gi do ngi bn chu
lp, yu cu ngi mua chu tr mt s tin xc
nh vo mt thi gian v mt a im nht
nh cho ngi th hng.
Lnh phiu l chng ch c gi do ngi mua chu
lp, cam kt tr mt s tin xc nh trong mt
thi gian v mt a im nht nh cho ngi
th hng.
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Thng phiu (Commercial
Paper)
C 3 tnh cht:
Tnh tru tng: Trn thng phiu khng ghi c th
nguyn nhn pht sinh khon n m ch ghi cc thng tin v
s tin phi tr, thi hn tr tin v ngi tr tin.
Tnh bt buc: Qui nh ngi tr tin phi thanh ton cho
ngi th hng ng hn, khng c php t chi hoc
tr hon vic tr tin.
Tnh lu thng: thng phiu c chuyn nhng t ngi
th hng sang ngi khc bng phng php k hu, n
c th chuyn ho ra tin khi mang n ngn hng xin chit
khu hoc cm c.
Cu hi
Tnh cht no cu thng phiu khin
thng phiu tr thnh mt loi
phng tin thanh ton thay cho tin
trong thi gian hiu lc v mnh gi
thng phiu?
Chp phiu ngn hng (Bankers
Acceptances)
Cc hi phiu k hn do cc cng ty k pht v c
ngn hng m bo thanh ton bng cch ng du
chp nhn ln t hi phiu.
Khi ngi bn khng tin vo kh nng thanh ton
ca ngi mua yu cu ngi mua phi c s bo
m thanh ton t ngn hng c uy tn.
Khi ngn hng chp nhn bo lnh cho khon thanh
ton ngi bn k pht hi phiu i tin thng
ngn hng v ngn hng s ng du chp nhn tr
tinln t hi phiu .
Chp phiu ngn hng (Bankers
Acceptances)
c ngn hng k chp nhn vo t hi phiu,
ngi mua chu
phi k qu gi vo ngn hng mt phn hoc ton
b s tin ca t h phiu hoc c ngn hng
ng cho vay thanh ton hi phiu.
Ngn hng s thu t ngi mua chu khon ph bo
m thanh ton.
S dng ph bin trong lnh vc xut nhp khu.
Nhng ngi s hu chp phiu c th em bn
chng trn th trng tin t vi gi chit khu
thu tin mt ngay khi cn vn gp.
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Cu hi
V sao ngi bn c m bo kh
chc chn v kh nng thanh ton ca
t hi phiu?
Hp ng mua li (Repurchase
Agreement- Repo)
Hp ng mua li l mt hp ng trong
ngn hng bn mt s lng tn phiu kho
bc m n ang nm gi, km theo iu
khon mua li s tn phiu sau mt vi
ngy hay mt vi tun vi mc gi cao hn.
y l mt cng c vay n ngn hn
(thng khng qu hai tun) ca cc ngn
hng trong s dng tn phiu kho bc lm
vt th chp.
V d
General Motors (GM) c mt s vn nhn ri
trong ti khon l 1 triu USD. Cng ty mun
tranh th cho vay ngn hn khon tin ny.
Ngn hng Citibank khi ang c nhu cu
vay 1 triu USD trong 1 tun.
Ngn hng quyt nh s dng mt Repo
vay ca GM bng cch k hp ng bn
cho GM 1 triu USD tn phiu kho bc m
ngn hng ang nm gi vi cam kt s mua
li s tn phiu ny vi gi cao hn sau 1
tun.
V d
Cng ty GM cung cp cho Citibank mt khon vay ngn hn
Li tr cho GM chnh l khon chnh lch gia gi bn li tn
phiu cho ngn hng sau 1 tun v gi mua tn phiu lc
u.
Trong trng hp xy ra ri ro Citibank khng thanh ton c
n cho GM khi n hn, 1 triu USD tn phiu kho bc vn
thuc s hu ca GM v cng ty c th bn trn th trng tin
t thu hi vn v.
Nh vy 1 triu USD tn phiu kho bc (mt cng c c tnh
lng cao
nht v an ton nht trn th trng tin t) c s dng
lm vt th chp trong Repo m bo kh nng thanh ton
n ca Citibank v lm cho GM yn tm khi cho vay.
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Hp ng mua li (Repurchase
Agreement- Repo)
Hp ng mua li (Repurchase Agreement): l hp
ng bn chng khon km theo cam kt s mua li vi
mc gi cao hn xc nh trc vo mt thi im nht
nh. Chnh lch gia gi mua v gi bn chnh l li nhun
ca ngi u t.
Hp ng mua li ngc (Reverse Repurchase
Agreement): L s i chiu ca hp ng mua li. Ngi
kinh doanh mua chng khon t ngi u t (NH, cng ty
ti chnh v cng ty phi ti chnh) km theo tho thun s
bn li chng khon sau mt thi hn nht nh (thng
l tng i ngn) vi gi cao hn. Lc by gi ngi u
t s c vn s dng tu v chnh lch gia gi bn li
v gi mua chnh l li ca nh kinh doanh.
Chng ch tin gi (Certificate of
Deposits)
Chng ch tin gi (Certificate of Deposit) l mt cng c n
(debt instrument) do cc ngn hng pht hnh, cam kt tr li
nh k cho khon tin gi v s hon tr vn gc (c gi l
mnh gi ca chng ch) cho ngi gi tin khi n ngy o
hn.
Lc u, cc chng ch tin gi khng c php bn li v nu
ngi gi tin rt vn trc hn th s phi chu pht.Sau ,
cc ngn hng bt u cho php cc chng ch tin gi c
mnh gi ln c php bn li trc hn (vi mt mc gi
khu tr) cc chng ch tin gi c th chuyn nhng
(NCDs).
NCDs thng c cc ngn hng dng huy ng cc ngun
vn ln t cc cng ty,cc qu tng h th trng tin t, cc
t chc ca chnh ph.v.v..
Qu lin bang (Fed Funds)
Nnhng khon vay n ngn hn (thng ch qua
mt m) in hnh gia cc ngn hng M.
i tng vay y l nhng mn tin gi ca cc
ngn hng ti FED
Khi tin gi ca mt ngn hng ti Fed khng t
n tng s m Fed qui nh vay t nhng ngn
hng no c khon tin gi ti Fed vt qu qui nh
b p cho khon thiu ht ca mnh.
Khi li sut cao l lc cc ngn hng ang b sc p
v vn, khi li sut thp l nhu cu tn dng ca cc
ngn hng thp.
Cu hi
V sao li sut ca cc khon vay qu
lin bang c xem l mt phong v
biu o mc cng thng ca th
trng tn dng trong h thng ngn
hng?
15/08/2011
19
la chu u (Euro dollars)
Nhng ng la M do cc ngn hng ngoi quc
bn ngoi nc M hoc nhng chi nhnh ca ngn
hng M ngoi quc nm gi.
Cc ngn hng M c th vay nhng mn tin ny t
cc ngn hng nc ngoi hoc t cc chi nhnh ca
ngn hng M nc ngoi khi h cn vn.
ng la chu u ngy nay tr thnh mt
ngun vn ngn hn quan trng i vi cc ngn
hng M (nm 1998 l trn 100 t USD).
Cu hi
1. Khi no nhng ngi i vay tm n th
trng tin t?
2. Khi no nhng ngi cho vay tham gia
th trng tin t?
3. Cc ch th kinh t no thng tham
gia vo th trng tin t?
4. K tn cc th trng b phn ca th
trng tin t v phn bit chng.
Cu hi
5. Nhng c im ca th trng tin t
6.Ti sao cc doanh nghip tham gia trn
th trng tin t?
7.Chng khon no ca th trng tin t
l lng nht v c xem l khng c
ri ro?Gii thch v sao?
Bi tp
Cng ty pht hnh chp phiu
trong vng 90 ngy,mnh gi
$100000, li sut 9.5% nm.Hi
cng ty thu c bao nhiu tin?
P = $100,000/(1+0.09590/365) =
$97,711.15
15/08/2011
20
Bi tp
Sau 27 ngy, chp phiu c bn
trn th trng tin t vi gi $98
380.15. Ngi mua gi n n
ngy o hn.Hi li sut
(a) Ngi mua u tin?
(b) Ngi gi n ngy o hn?
(a) (($98,380.15/$97,711.15)-1)365/27 = 0.09255739 hay 9.2557%
(b) (($100,000/$98,380.15)-1)365/63 = 0.09539 hay 9.539%
Chng 3
TH TRNG VN
nh ngha
Th trng vn L th trng din ra
vic mua bn cc cng c n di hn
nh c phiu, tri phiu.
Th trng vn c phn thnh ba b
phn l th trng c phiu, cc khon
cho vay th chp v tri phiu.
Mc ch tham gia th trng
vn
Gim ri ro li sut tng cao khi n
hn
15/08/2011
21
Ch th pht hnh
Chnh ph pht hnh tri phiu
B p vo nhng thiu ht ca ngn sch
Ti tr cho nhng chng trnh, d n ln
Cng ty pht hnh c phiu v tri
phiu
Ch th u t
Cc t chc ti chnh, cc cng ty bo
him, qu hu tr:u t ch yu vo
tri phiu
C nhn
Giao dch trn th trng vn
Th trng chng khon tp trung:
L th trng chng khon chnh thc.
Qu trnh mua bn cc loi chng
khon din ra ti mt a im (S Giao
Dch Chng Khon) c s qun l ca
nh nc. Cc loi chng khon c
giao dch ti th trng ny cn phi
p ng c mt s yu cu c th.
TTCK tp trung
(trung tm/s giao dch CK)
TTCK tp trung: Hot ng kinh doanh
theo lut php v quy ch ca SGD
Thng qua trung gian
Nimyt chng khon
Giao dch chng khon theo nguyn tc u
gi
Cng khai ti chnh
Giao nhn v thanh ton CK theo nguyn tc
b tr
Lu k chng khon ti sn giao dch
15/08/2011
22
Giao dch trn th trng vn
Th trng chng khon bn tp trung (th
trng OTC): L th trng chng khon bc cao
c t ng ha, vic mua bn chng khon thng
qua mng giao dch bng my vi tnh. H thng
mng ny c ni gia cc thnh vin ca trung
tm vi nhau khp trong c nc, vic giao dch
c thc hin thng qua mng my tnh v in
thoi.
Cc loi chng khon c giao dch trn th trng ny l
tt c cc loi chng khon cha c php giao dch trn
th trng chng khon tp trung.
TTCK bn tp trung
(OTC over the counter)
TTCK phi tp trung: Giao dch
thng qua mng li cc ngn hng
v cc cng ty chng khon.
Quy giao dch ti cc ngn hng
Nguyn tc giao dch: trc tip
Xc lp gi c: tha thun
Chng khon: khng nim yt
Lu k: t do
Thanh ton giao nhn: tha thun
TRI PHIU
Tri phiu l chng th xc nhn mt khon n ca
ngi pht hnh ra n, trong cam kt s tr
khon n km vi tin li trong mt thi hn nht
nh, thng tr li nh k
Mnh gi (gi tr n hn) l khon tin ngi pht hnh
phi tr khi n hn
Li sut thng c c nh theo thi hn ca tri phiu v
khng b nh hng bi li sut th trng
Theo Lut Chng khon: Tri phiu l loi chng
khon xc nhn quyn v li ch hp php ca ngi
s hu i vi mt phn vn n ca t chc pht
hnh.
Tri phiu
V th ca ngi pht hnh cao th kh
nng thanh ton tin li v hon vn
tri phiu cao tri tc gim
15/08/2011
23
Cc yu t c bn ca tri phiu
Mnh gi tri phiu (Face of Value, Par
value, maturity value):Mnh gi tri phiu
c th do lut quy nh
V d: M, mnh gi tri phiu doanh nghip l
1.000 USD.
Theo Lut chng khon th mnh gi tri phiu
ca Vit Nam ti thiu l 100.000 VN, cn cc
mnh gi khc l bi s ca mnh gi ti thiu.
Mnh gi l c nh v c tr vo ngy n
hn
Cc yu t c bn ca tri phiu
Thi hn ca tri phiu (Maturity):thi
hn i vay ca t chc pht hnh v c ghi
r trn tri phiu, thng thng thi hn ca
tri phiu c xc nh da vo ngy o
hn ghi trn tri phiu.
Thi hn ca tri phiu l mt yu t quan trng
i vi vic quyt nh u t vo tri phiu.
Thi hn ca tri phiu cng di th ri ro cng ln
li sut cng phi cao mi hp dn c nh
u t.
Cc yu t c bn ca tri phiu
Thi hn tr tri tc ca tri phiu:
c th quy nh l thng, qu, na
nm, hoc nm.
Cc tri phiu M thng quy nh thi
hn tr l 6 thng mt ln, Chu u
thng quy nh thi hn l mt nm mt
ln.
Cc yu t c bn ca tri phiu
Th chp ca tri phiu: m bo s an
ton cho vic thanh ton li v hon li vn
cho tri ch
Khi pht hnh tri phiu, cc t chc pht hnh
phi th chp cho vic pht hnh.
Th chp dnh cho ngi nhn th chp
(Mortagee) quyn tch thu ti sn th chp th
n hoc em bn ti sn th chp thu hi n
nu ngi th chp (Mortagor) khng thanh ton
c n ca tri phiu.
15/08/2011
24
Cc yu t c bn ca tri phiu
Tri tc v tri sut ca tri phiu
Tri tc l tin li vay m t chc pht
hnh phi tr cho tri ch theo tng nh
k nht nh quy nh trn tri phiu.
Tri sut l t l phn trm tnh theo nm
ca tri tc so vi mnh gi ca tri phiu.
Tri phiu chnh ph
tin cy v kh nng thanh ton tri tc v vn
cho tri ch rt cao trong iu kin kinh t bnh
thng, khng c chin tranh, o chnh qun s.
Cc nh u t la chn phng n u t vo tri
phiu chnh ph hn l tri phiu cng ty
Theo qui nh ca chnh ph Vit Nam, tri phiu
chnh ph gm: Tn phiu kho bc, thi hn di 1
nm; Tri phiu kho bc c thi hn 1 nm tr ln;
Tri phiu cng trnh c thi hn 1 nm tr ln v
cho tng cng trnh c th theo k hoch u t ca
Nh nc.
M c 3 loi:T bill ngn hn 1 nm, T note t
1nm n 10 nm, T bond t 10 n 20 nm.
15/08/2011
25
Tri phiu chnh ph
L chng khon n di hn do chnh ph pht hnh
nhm mc ch huy ng vn di hn b p
thiu ht ngn sch.
+ Tri phiu kho bc: pht hnh bi kho bc ti
tr cho thiu ht ngn sch ca chnh ph.
+ Tri phiu th: pht hnh bi chnh quyn a
phng nhm huy ng vn ti tr cho ngn sch
chnh quyn a phng.
Tri phiu chnh ph
Tri phiu th Tri phiu chnh ph
Tri phiu thng thng
Tri phiu khng bao gi o hn (tri
phiu vnh cu -perpetual bond, consol)
Tri phiu khng c hng li (non-
coupon bond)
15/08/2011
26
nh gi tri phiu chnh ph
n
n
i
Menhgia
i
i
C P
) 1 (
) 1 ( 1
+
+
+
=

C= mnh gi x tri sut
i= li sut giao dch
n: s ln tr coupon khi n hn
V d
Ngn hng BIDV pht hnh tri phiu
khng tr li c thi hn 10 nm v
mnh gi l 1 triu ng. Nu t sut
li nhun i hi ca nh u t l
12%, gi bn ca tri phiu ny s l
bao nhiu?
V d : TP tr li theo nh k na
nm
Tri phiu c cng ty US.CORP
pht hnh c mnh gi l 1 triu ng,
k hn 12 nm, tr li nh k na nm
vi li sut 10% v nh u t mong
mun c t sut li nhun 14% khi mua
tri phiu ny. Gi ca tri phiu l bao
nhiu?
Mi quan h gia gi tri phiu
v li sut
Gi s REE pht hnh tri phiu mnh
gi 1000$ thi hn 15 nm vi mc li
sut hng nm l 10%.
K
d
=10%
K
d
=8%
K
d
=12%
=> gi bn ca tri phiu l bao nhiu?
15/08/2011
27
Kt qu
K
d
=10% => P
1
=1000$
K
d
=8% => P
2
=1171.15$
K
d
=12% => P
3
=863,79$
Nhn xt
1. k
d
=C/M => gi tri phiu bng mnh gi
2. k
d
<C/M => gi tri phiu cao hn mnh gi
3. k
d
>C/M => gi tri phiu thp hn mnh gi
4. Li sut tng lm gi tri phiu gim v ngc li
5. Th gi tri phiu dn n mnh gi ca n khi thi gian
tin dn n ngy o hn
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2
...
1 1 1 1
N N
d d d d
C C C M
P
k k k k
= + + + +
+ + + +
Nhn xt
Khi li sut trn th trng bng li sut tri phiu th
gi tri phiu bng mnh gi ca n.
Khi li sut trn th trng thp hn li sut tri
phiu th gi tri phiu s cao hn mnh gi ca n.
Khi li sut trn th trng cao hn li sut tri phiu
th gi tri phiu s thp hn mnh gi ca n.
Li sut gia tng lm cho gi tri phiu gim trong
khi li sut gim s lm cho gi tri phiu gia tng.
Th gi tri phiu tin dn n mnh gi ca n khi
thi gian tin dn n ngy o hn.
V d
Vo thng 7/2003, gi cu tri phiu
chnh ph 7% thng 7 2006 ang giao
dch vi li sut 5.5%, mnh gi $1000
l bao nhiu?
P= $1040,97
15/08/2011
28
Bi tp
Vo thng 7/2003, gi cu tri phiu chnh
ph 7% thng 7 2006 ang giao dch vi li
sut 8%, mnh gi $1000 l bao nhiu?
Vo thng 7/2003, gi cu tri phiu chnh
ph 7% thng 7 2006 ang giao dch vi li
sut 7%, mnh gi $1000 l bao nhiu?
Vo thng 7/2003, gi cu tri phiu chnh
ph 7% thng 1 2006 ang giao dch vi li
sut 8%, mnh gi $1000 l bao nhiu?
Bi tp
Vo thng 3/2003, gi cu tri phiu
chnh ph 6% thng 3/ 2006 ang giao
dch vi li sut 5.5%, mnh gi $1000
l bao nhiu?
Vo thng 9/2003, gi cu tri phiu
chnh ph 6% thng 3/ 2006 ang giao
dch vi li sut 6.5%, mnh gi $1000
l bao nhiu?
Li sut nm gi k hn HPY
2 1
1

|
|
|
.
|

\
|

+
n
giamua
giaban pon glaicuacou giatrituon
i
i
C pon glaicuacou giatrituon
n
1 ) 1 ( +
=
Bi tp
Mt tri phiu chnh ph 7% thng 7/ 2006
ang giao dch vi li sut 5.5% mnh gi
$1000 vo thng 7/2003.Tri phiu ny c
bn li va thng 1/2005 khi li sut giao
dch l 6%.Trong sut thi gian nm gi tri
phiu, coupon c em u t vi li sut
5,75%.Tnh HPY?
HPY=5,07%
15/08/2011
29
Bi tp
Mt tri phiu chnh ph 4,75% thng
8/ 2010 ang giao dch vi li sut 5%
mnh gi $1000 vo ngy15 thng
2/2001.Tri phiu ny c bn li va
ngy 15 thng 3/2003 khi li sut giao
dch l 6,45%.Trong sut thi gian nm
gi tri phiu, coupon c em u t
vi li sut 5%.Tnh HPY?
Tri phiu cng ty
Do cc Cng ty pht hnh nhm thu ht
vn di hn phc v cho nhu cu u
t m rng quy m kinh doanh.
Phn loi tri phiu cng ty
Cn c vo hnh thc s hu
Tri phiu v danh (Bearer Bonds) l
tri phiu khng ghi tn ngi s hu,
thay vo bng s seri ca tri phiu.
Tri phiu ghi danh (Registered
Bonds) l tri phiu c ghi tn ca ngi
s hu tri phiu v/hoc ghi tn ngi s
hu trong s sch hay phng ng k ca
t chc pht hnh.
Phn loi tri phiu cng ty
Cn c vo vic pht hnh tri phiu c vt cht m bo hay
khng
Tri phiu khng m bo:c m bo bng uy tn ca t chc pht
hnh. Uy tn c th hin v minh chng bng kh nng thanh ton kp
thi vn v tri tc cho cc tri ch.
Tri phiu c m bo (Secured Bonds) l tri phiu m t chc
pht hnh em ti sn c th ca mnh m bo cho vic pht hnh. Nu
t chc pht hnh khng thanh ton tri phiu ng hn th tri ch c
quyn yu cu cc c quan chc nng pht mi ti sn thu hi vn
v tri tc.
-Tri phiu c bo lnh (Guarantees Bonds) l tri phiu c mt
t chc khc ng ra bo lnh thanh ton tri tc v vn ca tri phiu
khi tri phiu khng c thanh ton ng hn. Ngi bo lnh ny thng
l cc ngn hng, cng ty ti chnh, cng ty bo him hay cc cng ty
chng khon.
Tri phiu tn thc th chp (Collateral Trust Bonds) l tri phiu
c pht hnh da vo cc chng khon ca cc t chc khc khc lm
vt th chp.
15/08/2011
30
Quyn li ca tri ch
c hng tri tc khng ph thuc vo
vic kinh doanh ca Cng ty c li hay khng
c li.
c hon vn ng hn hay trc hn tu
theo s tho thun ca hai bn.
c quyn bn, chuyn nhng, chuyn i
(nu c), cm c, th chp tri phiu.
Li ch ca tri phiu chuyn
i
i vi bn pht hnh: do vic ngi
u t s c hng quyn chuyn i tri
phiu ny ra c phiu thng khi n hn,
nn:
Nu l tri phiu: bn pht hnh s bn tri
phiu ra vi li sut thp.
Nu l c phiu u i: bn pht hnh s
cho bn vi gi cao.
Khi cc chng khon c chuyn i, nh
pht hnh cn c li v loi b c cc
khon c nh phi tr, ng thi tng thm
s lng c ng ca cng ty, mt ch bo c
li cho danh ting ca cng ty.
Li ch ca tri phiu chuyn
i
- i vi ngi u t:
Chng khon c th chuyn i c sc hp dn
ch chng kt hp c tnh an ton ca tri phiu
(thu nhp c nh) vi tnh c th u c ca c
phiu thng.
Chng khon c th chuyn i cho php nh u
t c th c bo him trc tnh trng lm pht.
Tuy nhin, nhng li ch ca vic thc hin
chuyn i ty thuc nhiu vo gi chuyn i, t l
chuyn i, v tng quan gi gia cng c c th
chuyn i vi nhng cng c m chng c th
chuyn i thnh. l nhng yu t thng khng
nmtrong tm kim sot ca ngi u t.
C phiu
C phiu l loi phiu chng nhn s
gp vn vo mt cng ty tr thnh
mt thnh vin ca cng ty .
Theo Lut Chng khon: c phiu
l loi chng khon xc nhn quyn v
li ch hp php ca ngi s hu i
vi mt phn vn c phn ca t chc
pht hnh.
15/08/2011
31
c im
Th gi c phiu thng xuyn bin ng
trn th trng.
C phiu c kh nng chuyn nhng mua,
bn trn th trng chng khon (TTCK).
C phiu c gi tr trong sut thi gian tn ti
ghi trong iu l ca cng ty. Do tui th
ca c phiu c xem nh v hn.
C phiu thng v c phiu
u i
C phiu thng (Common stocks): l
loi c phiu thng dng nht v th hin r
cc c im ca c phiu nu trn.
C phiu u i (Preferred stocks): c
u tin chia li tc so vi c phiu thng v
li tc l c nh (s tin c nh hoc t sut
c tc),c u tin hon vn so vi c
phiu thng khi c ch trng hon vn,
khng c quyn bu c gi c phiu u
i t bin ng
So snh c phiu u i v c
phiu ph thng
COMMON STOCK
Pht hnh rng ri ra
cng chng
C sut: khng ghi
Li n, l chu
Nhn li sau
Hon vn sau (nu
c)
C phiu biu quyt
Chuyn nhng
thng thng
PREFERRED STOCK
C la chn
Ghi c sut
Hng li (c th tch ly)
Nhn li trc
Hon vn trc (nu c)
Cc nc: khng, VN: c
Khng, hoc hn ch
Cc quyn ca c ng
Quyn s hu ti sn ca doanh
nghip theo t l % lut nh
Ti sn ca doanh nghip c phn l do
vn ca cc c ng ng gp vo m c.
Do vy, cc c ng c quyn s hu i
vi cc ti sn ca doanh nghip theo t l
gp vn ca h.
15/08/2011
32
Cc quyn ca c ng
Quyn b phiu biu quyt (Voting right) :t
bu c Hi ng qun tr hay thng qua nhng vn
quan trng ca doanh nghip.
C hai loi quyn b phiu biu quyt: b phiu biu
quyt php nh v b phiu biu quyt tch lu.
Quyn b phiu biu quyt php nh (Statutory
voting right) l quyn dnh cho c ng dng l phiu ca
mnh bu cho cc thnh vin Hi ng qun tr v khng
c dn phiu cho mt ngi hoc biu quyt mt vn
trong i hi ng c ng m khng c dn phiu cho
nhng vn khc.
Quyn b phiu tch lu (Cumulative voting right) th
ngc li, c ng c th dn phiu cho mt ngi no
m mnh chn vo Hi ng qun tr.
Cc quyn ca c ng
Quyn nhn c tc: C ng s c
nhn c tc nu Hi ng qun tr cng
b doanh nghip c li v chia li theo
ngh quyt ca i hi c ng.
C tc c phiu thng c th c tr
bng tin, bng c phiu ca doanh nghip
hoc bng c phiu ca doanh nghip khc
m doanh nghip tr c tc ang s hu.
Cc quyn ca c ng
Quyn tip cn thng tin: C ng
c quyn c thng bo kp thi mi
din bin trong cng ty, c bit nhng
tnh hnh c kh nng tc ng mnh
n gi c phiu.
Cc bo co ti chnh nh k v cc loi
thng bo cng l cc thng tin m c
ng c quyn c tip cn.
Cc quyn ca c ng
Quyn chuyn nhng, cm c c
phiu: Sau khi u t, ngi s hu c
phiu c th bn li cho ngi khc
hng chnh lch gi, dch chuyn
lnh vc u t hoc gii quyt mt
nhu cu no hoc c th cm c c
phiu vay vn ti cc t chc ti
chnh tn dng.
15/08/2011
33
Cc quyn ca c ng
Quyn u tin mua trc
(Preemptive Right): Khi c t pht
hnh c phiu mi, cc c ng c
c quyn u tin mua trc ton b
hay tng phn lng c phiu sp pht
hnh.
Cc quyn ca c ng
Quyn i vi ti sn cn li
(Residual Right): Khi thanh l doanh
nghip gii th, phn cn li l ca cc
c ng c hng v h c quyn
phn chia chng.
Cc quyn ca c ng
Quyn tham gia quyt nh chia nh c
phiu ca doanh nghip
Nhng doanh nghip c c phiu mnh gi ln,
trong qu trnh hot ng ca mnh thng ny
sinh yu cu phi chia nh (Split) c phiu ra lm
nhiu c phiu c mnh gi nh hn.
Mi vic phn chia phi c s ng ca c
ng ti i hi c ng, phi sa i iu l,
giy php kinh doanh v cng b cng khai.
Questions
Stockholders have all of the following rights
except:
a) the right to receive timely information
b) the right to elect directors
c) the priority of claims in the event of
bankruptcy
d) the right to inspect companys books.
15/08/2011
34
Questions (Cont)
Stockholders in the corporation:
a) are primary owners of corporate assets
b) are residual owners of corporate assets
c) have priority of claim over bond holders
d) have priority of claim over preferred
stockholders
Cu hi
Quyn biu quyt ca cng ty c phn khc g vi tp th?
Quyn qun l ca c ng th hin qua quyn no?
V sao phi a ra quyn u tin mua trc?
Tnh thanh khon c phiu th hin qua quyn no?
Quyn tip cn thng tin gip m bo tnh cht g ca TTCK?
Quyn tip cn thng tin gip c ng trnh c ri ro g?
Th gi ca c phiu chu nh hng bi nhng nhn t no?
Tnh cht u i ca c phiu u i th hin dim no?
nh gi c phiu
Gi tr ca c phiu l gi tr hin ti
ca nhng dng tin mong i trong
tng lai.Bao gm: c tc v gi bn
cui cng
Vic nh gi c phiu khng ging nh
vic nh gi tri phiu
Gi tr c phiu
Mnh gi c phiu
(par-value)
Gi tr s sch ca c phiu
(Book value)
Gi tr th trng ca c phiu
(Market value)
Hin gi ca c phiu
(Present value)
15/08/2011
35
Mnh gi c phiu
(par-value)
L gi tr ghi trn giy chng nhn c
phiu
Ch c gi tr danh ngha
Thng thng, mnh gi c phiu c
tnh:
Ti Vit Nam?
Mnh gi c phiu
mi pht hnh
Vn iu l ca cng ty c phn
Tng s c phiu ng k pht hnh
=
Gi tr k ton ca c phiu
(Book value)
L gi tr ti sn rng (net worth) ca
cng ty trn mi c phiu theo bng
cn i ti sn (balance sheet)
Phn nh tnh trng vn c phn ca
cng ty ti mt thi im nht nh
Thi im
cui nm
Gi tr k ton ca c phiu
(Book value)
Gi tr s sch bng chi ph mua sm ti sn
tr i phn khu hao tch ly ca ti sn .
Gi tr s sch ca doanh nghip hay cng ty
tc l gi tr ton b ti sn ca doanh
nghip tr i gi tr cc khon n phi tr v
gi tr c phiu u i c lit k trn bng
cn i ti sn ca doanh nghip.
V d v Book-value
Nm 2006, cng ty c phn ABC thnh lp
vi vn iu l l 30 t ng, s c phiu
ng k pht hnh l 3 triu CP.
Nm 2007, cng ty quyt nh tng vn
bng cch pht hnh thm 1 triu CP. Ti
thi im ny, gi bn mi CP trn th
trng l 25.000. Bit rng qu tch lu
dng cho u t cn li tnh n cui nm
2007 l 10 t ng. Tnh gi tr s sch
ca CP.
15/08/2011
36
V d
31/12/2007:
+Vn c phn theo mnh gi:
4.000.000 x 10.000/c phiu = 40 t ng
+Vn thng d:
(25.000 10.000) x 1.000.000 = 15 t ng
+Qu tch lu: 10 t
ng
=> Tng s vn c phn: 65 t ng
Gi tr s sch ca c phiu:
65 t ng/4 triu CP = 16.250 ng
Gi tr th trng ca c phiu
(Market value)
Gi c phiu trn th trng ti mt thi im
nht nh.
Tu theo quan h cung cu m gi tr th trng
c th thp hn hoc cao hn, hoc bng gi tr
thc ca n ti thi im mua bn.
Gi tr th trng ca c phiu thng phi ln
hn gi tr k ton.
Ti sao ?
Nu khng, vic kt hp cc ti sn sn
xut kinh doanh ch l v ngha v n khng lm
tng gi tr ca ti sn
Gi tr ca ca cc khon u t trong
tng lai (Value of future investment)
Nu cc nh u t tin rng cng ty
s t mc t sut li nhun cao trong
tng lai th h s chp nhn mua c
phiu vi gi cao hn gi c phiu hin
ti
Gi tr c phiu
Vy, gi c phiu (gi tr th trng)
khng phi l gi tr k ton
Stock Price
Present
earning
Future
earning
Intangible
assets income
Tangible
assets income
Future
performance
15/08/2011
37
M hnh chit khu c tc
(DDM)
Nu ti nm th H, gi c phiu l P
H
th
gi hin ti l:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
3 1 2
0 1 2 3
. . .
1 1 1 1
H H
H
s s s s
D D D D P
P
k k k k
+
= + + + +
+ + + +
Gi nh:
+ mc li sut chit khu ks,
+ cho d cc nh u t gi c phiu trong 1,2,hay H
nm ri sau bn th gi c phiu thi im hin ti
vn khng thay i
M hnh chit khu c tc
(DDM)
Vi mc li sut khng i 8%/nm, gi c
phiu Blue Skies khng thay i bt k nh
u t s gi c phiu trong bao lu
M hnh chit khu c tc
(DDM)
Nu c phiu c gi cng lu th gi tr
hin ti ca cc khon c tc trong tng lai
cng tng v gi tr hin ti ca P
H
cng gim
M hnh chit khu c tc
(DDM)
15/08/2011
38
M hnh tng trng c tc
(Constant growth DDM)
M hnh tng trng c tc l mt
trng hp c bit ca m hnh chit
khu c tc trong c tc hng nm
c gi nh tng trng mt t l
khng i g<k
s
M hnh tng trng c tc
(Constant growth DDM)
Cng thc:
1
1 0
2
2 0
3
3 0
0
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
...
(1 )
N
N
D D g
D D g
D D g
D D g
= +
= +
= +
= +
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
3 1 2
0 1 2 3
. . . ...
1 1 1 1
t
t
s s s s
D D D D
P
k k k k
= + + + + +
+ + + +
0 1
0
(1 )
s s
D g D
P
k g k g
+
= =

M hnh tng trng c tc
(Constant growth DDM)
Vy nu bit tc tng trng c tc,
gi c phiu v c tc nm u th c th
tnh c li sut yu cu ks
k
s
khng b chi phi trc tip bi D
1
v g
k
s
l li sut yu cu trn th trng v c th
c dng tnh gi c phiu cng loi
1
0
s
D
k g
P
= +
M hnh tng trng c tc
(Constant growth DDM)
T l tng trng c tc g l t l
tng trng trong di hn v thng
c d on da trn cng thc
ROE-Return on
Equity: l t l gia
thu nhp ca cng
ty trn vn c phn
ROE l li
sut ti
u t
T l thu nhp ca
cng ty c dng
ti u t
15/08/2011
39
M hnh tng trng c tc
(Constant growth DDM)
Nhn xt:
M hnh tng trng c tc khng nh gi c
cc cng ty khng tr c tc thng xuyn
Gi nh quan trng nht: tc tng trng c
tc lun khng i v nh hn li sut chit khu
(g<k
s
)
Tc tng trng c tc (g) cng chnh bng
tc tng gi c phiu
1 1
0 0
1
D P
g
D P
= = +
M hnh tng trng c tc
(Constant growth DDM)
Tnh gi c phiu:
Cng ty PC va tr c tc $2/c
phiu v mc tng trng c tc k
vng trn th trng s mi l 5%/nm.
Hi c phiu PC nn c bn vi gi
bao nhiu nu bit li sut chit khu l
15%/nm?
M hnh tng trng c tc
(Constant growth DDM)
Tnh tc tng trng c tc:
Cng ty XYZ s tr c tc $5/c phiu
vo nm sau. C phiu XYZ ang c
bn vi gi $50/c phiu. Tc tng
trng c tc l bao nhiu nu bit cc
cng ty nh XYZ thng c mc li sut
yu cu l 14%/nm?
M hnh tng trng c tc
(Constant growth DDM)
Tnh li sut chit khu:
C phiu cng ty X ang bn vi gi
$40/c phiu. C tc tr nm sau l
$4/c phiu. Nu li sut ti u t ca
cng ty l 15%/nm v cng ty dnh
40% thu nhp ti u t th li sut
chit khu l bao nhiu?
15/08/2011
40
M hnh tng trng c tc
(Constant growth DDM)
Mt c phiu c mc c tc k vng
trong 3 nm u ln lt l: $1,
$1.25,$1.5. Cc nh u t cho rng
gi c phiu sau 3 nm s l $20/c
phiu. Hi gi c phiu hin ti l bao
nhiu nu bit li sut chit khu l
10%/nm?
M hnh tng trng c tc
(Constant growth DDM)
C phiu X c mc c tc sau 3 nm
u khng i l $2. Sau c tc tng
vi tc khng i l 6%/nm. Hi c
phiu X hin c bn vi gi bao
nhiu nu bit li sut chit khu l
13%/nm?
M hnh tng trng c tc
(Constant growth DDM)
Cng ty ABC thuc ngnh cng nghip ang
suy thoi. Doanh thu, li nhun v c tc u
gim mc 10%/nm. C tc va tr nm
nay l $3
a. Khi no c th p dng m hnh tng trng c
tc trong trng hp ny? Khi gi c phiu
bng bao nhiu, bit li sut chit khu l
15%/nm?
b. D on gi c phiu nm sau l bao nhiu?
Hn ch ca m hnh chit khu c tc
C th p dng nh gi c phiu trong
cc trng hp tc tng trng c tc
bng 0, hoc bng g khng i v ngay c
trong trng hp tc tng trng c tc
thay i qua tng thi k (tuy c phc tp
nhng vn c th tnh c).
M hnh ny khng p dng c trong
trng hp cng ty gi li ton b li nhun
cho ti u t v khng trong tr c tc cho
c ng.
15/08/2011
41
Cc ch s chng khon
Trong cu trc ch s chng khon
ngi ta thng ch 3 thnh t:
Loi chng khon ng k.
S lng ca mi loi chng khon.
Mc gi c chng khon.
Thng ngi ta ch chn mt s loi
chng khon tiu biu cho nn kinh t
tnh ton
Phng php tnh
ch s gi c phiu
Phng php Passcher
Phng php Laspeyres
Ch s gi bnh qun Fisher
Phng php s bnh qun gin n
Phng php bnh qun nhn gin n
Phng php Passcher
y l phng php xc nh ch s gi c
phiu thng dng nht.
L ch s gi bnh qun gia quyn gi tr vi
quyn s l s lng chng khon nim yt
thi k tnh ton
Cc ch s trn th gii s dng phng php
ny: KOSPI (Hn Quc), S&P500 (M), FT-
SE100 (Anh), TOPIX (Nht), CAC (Php), TSE
(i Loan), Hangseng (Hng Kng).
VnIndex ca Vit Nam s dng phng php
ny.
Cng thc tnh ch s Passcher
Trong :
I
P
: l ch s gi Passcher
p
t
: l gi thi k t
p
0
: l gi thi k gc
q
t
: l khi lng (quyn s) thi im tnh
ton t hoc c cu ca khi lng thi im
tnh ton

=
0
p q
p q
I
t
t t
P
15/08/2011
42
Phng php Laspeyres
L ch s gi bnh qun gia quyn gi tr,
ly quyn s l s c phiu nim yt
thi k gc.
Ch s FAX, DAX ca c s dng
phng php ny.
Cng thc tnh ch s
Laspeyres
Trong :
I
L
: l ch s gi Laspeyres
p
t
: l gi thi k t
p
0
: l gi thi k gc
q
o
: l khi lng (quyn s) thi k gc

=
0 0
0
p q
p q
I
t
L
Ch s gi bnh qun Fisher
L ch s gi bnh qun nhn gia ch s
Passcher v Laspeyres
Phng php ny trung ha c im
yu ca 2 phng php trn, tc l gi
tr ch s tnh ton ra ph thuc vo
quyn s ca c 2 thi k: k gc v k
tnh ton
Cng thc tnh Fisher
Trong :
I
F:
l ch s gi Fisher
I
p
: l ch s gi
Passcher
I
L
: l ch s gi
Laspeyres
L P F
I I I =
15/08/2011
43
Phng php s bnh qun gin
n
Cc ch s h DowJone ca M,
Nikkei225 ca Nht, MBI ca p dng
phng php ny.
Phng php ny p dng tt trong
trng hp cc mc gi ca cc c
phiu tham gia nim yt kh ng u,
hay lch chun ca n thp.
Phng php ny ly tng th gi ca
chng khon chia cho s chng khon
tham gia tnh ton.
Phng php s bnh qun gin
n
Trong :
I
P:
l gi bnh qun
p
i
: l gi chng
khon I
n: l s lng chng
khon a vo tnh
ton
n
p
I
i
P

=
Phng php bnh qun nhn
gin n
Phng php ny c s dng khi lch
chun kh cao. Cc ch s FT-30 (Anh) p
dng phng php bnh qun nhn gin n
ny.
I
P
: l gi bnh qun
p
i
: l gi chng khon i
n: l s lng chng khon
a vo tnh ton
i
n
i
P
P I
1 =
[ =
Tiu thc chn chng khon
i din
S lng c phiu nim yt
Gi tr nim yt
T l giao dch, mua-bn chng khon
trn th trng
Khi lng v gi tr giao dch
15/08/2011
44
CH S GI C PHIU VN-INDEX
Th hin bin ng gi c phiu giao dch ti SGDCK
TP.HCM
Cng thc tnh ch s p dng i vi ton b cc c
phiu nim yt ti SGDCK TP.HCM nhm th hin xu
hng gi c phiu hng ngy.
Ch s VN-Index so snh gi tr th trng hin hnh
vi gi tr th trng c s vo ngy gc 28/7/2000.
Gi tr th trng c s trong cng thc tnh ch s
c iu chnh trong cc trng hp nh nim yt
mi, hu nim yt v cc trng hp c thay i v
vn nim yt.
Ch s HNX-index
L phng php tnh ton nhm o lng mc
thay i gi ca tt c cc loi c phiu ng k giao
dch ti TTGDCKHN.
c tnh bng cch ly tng gi tr th trng hin
hnh ca c phiu ng k giao dch chia cho tng
gi tr th trng c s ca cc c phiu ng k giao
dch ti trung tm ny, sau nhn vi 100.
Phng php iu chnh khi c
thay i v khi lng v gi tr
iu chnh mu kh nh hng ca
cc yu t thay i v khi lng v gi
tr trong qu trnh tnh ton ch s gi
c phiu.
Nhm cho ch s gi c phiu thc s
phn nh ng s bin ng ca ring
gi c phiu.
iu chnh c th dng k thut
iu chnh mu s.
iu chnh h s chia
Nim yt mi hoc tng vn
D1= D0 x V1/ (V1- AV)
Hy nim yt hoc gim vn
D1= D0 x V1/ (V1+ AV)
Xy ra ng thi
D1= D0 x V1/ (V1-AV+ AV)
15/08/2011
45
iu chnh h s chia
D1: H s chia mi
D0: H s chia c (gi tr th trng
ngy gc)
V1: Tng gi tr hin hnh ca cc c
phiu nim yt
AV: Gi tr iu chnh tng c phiu
AV: Gi tr iu chnh gim c phiu
V d
TH. Chng khon mi c nim yt
Chng
khon
Khi
lng
nim yt
Gi ng
ca 11/8
Gi ng
ca 12/8
Gi ng
ca 13/8
A 1000 10 12 13
B 2000 15 16 17
C 5000 18 20
V d
Ch s gi ngy giao dch u
tin:100%(im
D
0
=1000x10+2000x15
=40000
Ch s gi ngy 12/8: 110
im, tng 10% hay 10 im
D
0
=D
1
=40000 (CP C cha
c tham gia vo vic tnh
ch s gi, v mi c gi ban
u, cha c gi thay i)
100
15 2000 10 1000
15 2000 10 1000
100
0
0 0
=
+
+
=

D
P Q
110
15 2000 10 1000
16 2000 12 1000
100
1
1 1
=
+
+
=

D
P Q
iu chnh khi c chng khon
mi
Tnh D
2
khi c c phiu C vo ngy 13/8 nh sau:
(12x1000+16x2000) => Mu s l (10x1000+15x2000)
(12x1000+16x2000+18x5000) => Mu s D
2
l?
1818 , 121818
2000 16 1000 12
) 5000 18 2000 16 1000 12 ( ) 2000 15 1000 10 (
2
=
+
+ + +
= D
Ch s gi ngy 13/8 l 120,67 im tng 10,67 im
67 , 120
5000 20 2000 17 1000 13
100
2
=
+ +

D
15/08/2011
46
V d
TH. Chng khon mi hy nim yt
Chng
khon
Khi
lng
nim yt
Gi ng
ca 11/8
Gi ng
ca 12/8
Gi ng
ca 13/8
A 2000 10 12 13
D 3000 15 16 17
B 5000 16 18
C 3000 17 16
p n
H s chia mi:67200
VnIndex 13/8: 114.58
Ch s Dow - Jones
Ch s Dow - Jones trong cng nghip (Dow
Jones Industrial Average_DJIA).
Ch s Dow - Jones trong ngnh vn ti (Dow
Jones Transportation Average -DJTA).
Ch s Dow - Jones trong ngnh tin ch cng
cng (Dow Jones Utilities Average -DJUA).
Ch s Dow Jones tng hp (Dow Jones
Composite Average)
Ch s Standard & Poors Composite
Index of 500 stocks
Ch s ny tnh gi bnh qun ca 500
loi c phiu, bao gm 400 ngnh cng
nghip, 60- vn ti, 40-chng khon ti
chnh tiu biu cho 80% tr gi th
trng ca tt c cc chng khon mua
bn trn th trng NYSE.
15/08/2011
47
NASDAQ - OTC price index
Ch s phn nh dung lng th trng ca
3.500 chng khon ngoi danh mc trn th
trng OTC M.
Da vo H thng yt gi t ng ca Hip
hi quc gia cc nh kinh doanh chng khon
M (National Association of Securities
Dealers Automated Quotation) v ly ngy
05/2/1971 l gc.
Ch s Nikkei
Ch s bnh qun gi c ca 225 loi chng khon hng u c mua
bn trn th trng chng khon TOKYO.
Ch s Nikkei c tnh theo cng thc:

Trong :
A l bnh qun gi c 225 chng khon vo ngy trc bin ng.
K l hng s chia vo ngy trc bin ng.
K
A
= N
Ch s TOPIX
Ch s TOPIX (The Tokyo Stock Exchanges
Stock price index) l ch s ni ln dung
lng th trng chng khon qua cc ngy,
n c tnh theo cng thc:
Topix ngy X = Tng gi th trng chng
khon ngy X /Tng gi th trng ngy gc
x 100
Topix c thnh lp ngy 04/1/1968, ngy
ny c coi l ngy gc c tr gi 100 im.
Cu hi
1. Trnh by khi nim, c im ca c phiu, tri phiu
2. Phn tch cc quyn ca c ng v tri ch i vi t chc
pht hnh?
3. Khi pht hnh c phiu mi, ti sao cng ty cn phi u tin
cho c ng c c quyn mua c phiu? Hy phn tch cc
tnh cht ca quyn u tin ny?
4. Theo anh (ch), trn th trng gi c phiu hay tri phiu bin
ng nhiu hn? Ti sao?
5. Trc tnh hnh t nc c nguy c lm pht, vi t cch l
nh u t, anh (ch) nn u t vo nhng loi Tri phiu
no? V sao?
15/08/2011
48
Cu hi
1. Ti sao cc cng ty tm kim ngun vn vay
trn th trng tri phiu?
2. Ti sao cc nh u t cung cp ngun vn
trc tip trn th trng tri phiu?
3. Ti sao cc cng ty li vay vn qua cc qu
u t thay v pht hnh IPO?
4. Cc nhn t nh hng n gi pht hnh
c phiu
Cu hi
Trnh by ni dung mt s ch s chng
khon: Dow - Jones; Nikkei; TOPIX; VN
Index.
Trnh by cc m hnh nh gi chng
khon?
CC NGHIP V TRN
TH TRNG CHNG KHON
NGHIP V PHT HNH CHNG KHON
Nghip v pht hnh chng khon l nghip
v huy ng vn u t trc tip t nn
kinh t thng qua vic pht hnh v tiu
th cc chng khon.
15/08/2011
49
PHN LOI THEO T PHT HNH
Pht hnh ln u ra cng chng
Pht hnh chng khon b sung
PHN LOI THEO PHM VI PHT HNH
Pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng
Bn rng ri cho mt s lng ln nh u
t
Pht hnh chng khon ring r
Cho bn trong phm vi s ngi nht
nh vi nhng iu kin hn ch
Bo v cho cng chng u t, iu kin
xy dng th trng chng khon an
ton, cng khai v c hiu qu
Pht hnh trn th trng s cp
- Pht hnh ring l
- Bn cho t ngi (<100)
- Bn cho i tng xc nh
trc
- Phng tin ni b
- Khng phi ng k
- Cng ty c phn t nhn
- Cho bn ra cng chng
- Bn cho nhiu ngi (>100)
- Phng tin i chng hoc Internet
- Bn cho s ngi khong xc nh trc
- =>phi ng k
- Cng ty c phn i chng
C cu th trng chng khon
T chc pht hnh
Chnh ph
Doanh nghip
T chc bo lnh
S giao dch
chng khon
Th trng
OTC
Cng ty chng khon
Nh u t
Trung
tm
lu
k
Th trng s cp Th trng th cp
15/08/2011
50
MC CH PHT HNH C PHIU
Hnh thnh vn iu l
Tng vn iu l
Thc hin chuyn i tri phiu, c
phiu u i thnh c phiu thng
C phn ha doanh nghip nh nc
iu kin cho bn c phiu ra cng
chng
a) Doanh nghip c mc vn iu l
gp ti thi im ng k cho bn t
mi t ng Vit Nam tr ln tnh theo
gi tr ghi trn s k ton;
b) Hot ng kinh doanh ca nm lin trc
nm ng k cho bn phi c li, ng thi
khng c l lu k tnh n nm ng k cho
bn;
c) C phng n pht hnh v phng n s
dng vn thu c t t cho bn c i
hi ng c ng thng qua.
iu kin cho bn c phiu ln u ra cng
chng ca mt s loi hnh doanh nghip
1. i vi doanh nghip 100% vn nh
nc chuyn i thnh cng ty c phn
kt hp cho bn c phiu ra cng
chng th thc hin theo quy nh ca
php lut v vic chuyn cng ty nh
nc thnh cng ty c phn.
iu kin cho bn c phiu ln u ra cng
chng ca mt s loi hnh doanh nghip
2. i vi doanh nghip c vn u t nc
ngoi chuyn i thnh cng ty c phn kt
hp cho bn c phiu ra cng chng:
a) p ng iu kin quy nh ti im a v b
khon 1 iu 12 Lut Chng khon;
b) C phng n pht hnh v phng n s
dng vn thu c t t cho bn c ch
doanh nghip 100% vn nc ngoi hoc Hi
ng qun tr doanh nghip lin doanh thng
qua;
c) C cng ty chng khon t vn trong vic lp
h s cho bn c phiu.
15/08/2011
51
iu kin cho bn c phiu ln u ra cng
chng ca mt s loi hnh doanh nghip
3. i vi doanh nghip c vn u t
nc ngoi chuyn i thnh cng
ty c phn:
a) p ng cc iu kin quy nh ti
khon 1 iu 12 Lut Chng khon;
b) p ng iu kin quy nh ti im c
khon 2 iu ny.
iu kin cho bn c phiu ln u ra cng
chng ca mt s loi hnh doanh nghip
4. i vi doanh nghip thnh lp mi thuc lnh vc c s h
tng:
a) L doanh nghip lm ch u t xy dng cc cng
trnh c s h tng thuc n pht trin kinh t - x hi
ca cc B, ngnh v cc tnh, thnh ph trc thuc trung
ng;
b) C d n u t c cp c thm quyn ph duyt;
c) C cam kt chu trch nhim lin i ca Hi ng qun
tr hoc cc c ng sng lp i vi phng n pht hnh
v phng n s dng vn thu c t t cho bn;
d) C t chc bo lnh pht hnh;
) C ngn hng gim st vic s dng vn thu c t
t cho bn.
iu kin cho bn c phiu ln u ra cng
chng ca mt s loi hnh doanh nghip
5. i vi doanh nghip thnh lp mi
thuc lnh vc cng ngh cao:
a) L doanh nghip hot ng trong lnh vc
cng ngh cao c khuyn khch u t
theo quy nh ca php lut;
b) p ng iu kin quy nh ti cc im
b, c, d v khon 4 iu ny.
6. Cng ty u t chng khon cho bn
chng khon ra cng chng thc hin
theo quy nh ti chng V Ngh nh
ny.
Quy trnh pht hnh c phiu :
Bc 1: Thng qua quyt nh pht hnh
T chc i hi c ng xin kin chp
thun ca i hi c ng v vic pht hnh
chng khon ra cng chng, ng thi thng
nht mc ch huy ng vn; s lng;
chng loi v s lng chng khon d nh
pht hnh; c cu vn pht hnh..
15/08/2011
52
Quy trnh pht hnh c phiu :
Bc 2: La chn nh bo lnh( nu c ) v k hp
ng bo lnh pht hnh
Thnh lp ban chun b la chn ngi ng u
t hp bo lnh pht hnh la chn cc thnh
vin khc ca t hp (Trong trng hp khi lng
chng khon pht hnh l qu ln ) cng vi t
hp bo lnh pht hnh, cng ty kim ton v t
chc t vn tin hnh nh gi chng khon pht
hnh
Chnh thc thnh lp t hp bo lnh pht hnh v k
hp ng bo lnh pht hnh vi t chc pht hnh.
Quy trnh pht hnh c phiu :
Bc 3: ng k pht hnh
T chc pht hnh np h s ln U ban chng
khon Nh nc. (s c tr li trong 30 ngy)
Cc trng hp khng phi ng k:
Tri phiu ca Chnh ph Vit Nam;
Tri phiu ca TCTC QT c Chnh ph Vit Nam
chp thun;
C phiu ra cng chng ca DNNN chuyn i thnh
Cty c phn;
Vic bn ck theo bn n, quyt nh ca To n hoc
vic bn ck ca ngi qun l hoc ngi c nhn
ti sn trong cc trng hp ph sn hoc mt kh
nng thanh ton.
Quy trnh pht hnh c phiu :
Bc 4: Pht hnh bn co bch d tho
Trong thi gian U ban Chng khon Nh nc xem
xt h s ng k cho bn chng khon ra cng
chng, t chc v c nhn c lin quan ch c s
dng trung thc v chnh xc cc thng tin trong Bn
co bch gi U ban Chng khon Nh nc
thm d th trng, trong phi nu r cc thng
tin v ngy pht hnh v gi bn chng khon l
thng tin d kin. Vic thm d th trng khng
c thc hin trn phng tin thng tin i chng.
Quy trnh pht hnh c phiu :
Bc 5: Nhn giy php pht hnh chng khon v
cng b bn co bch chnh thc ra cng chng.
Trong thi hn 7 ngy, t chc pht hnh phi cng
b Bn thng bo pht hnh trn mt t bo in t
hoc bo vit trong ba s lin tip.
Ti a sau 1 thng, bng co bch th trng chnh
thc( mu xanh ) phi c pht hnh rng ri ra
cng chng. (cm ph bin bt c loi thng tin no
khc ca cng ty pht hnh thng tin khng b
nhiu.)
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53
Quy trnh pht hnh c phiu :
Bc 6: Phn phi chng khon ra cng chng
Ch c thc hin sau khi t chc pht hnh bo m
ngi mua chng khon tip cn Bn co bch
Cng khai v bo m thi hn ng k mua chng
khon cho nh u t ti thiu l 20 ngy
Hon thnh vic phn phi chng khon trong thi hn
90 ngy (cha hon thnh s c gia hn ti a khng
qu 30 ngy)
Trng hp ng k cho bn chng khon cho
nhiu t th khong cch gia t cho bn sau
vi t cho bn trc khng qu 12 thng.
Quy trnh pht hnh c phiu :
Bc 7: Cc th tc khc
Tin hnh ng k, lu gi, chuyn giao
v thanh ton chng khon sau khi kt
thc t phn phi chng khon
Mc ch pht hnh tri phiu
i vi cng ty: B sung vn tm thi
thiu ht trong qa trnh sn xut kinh
doanh
i vi chnh quyn a phng: Tng
vn ti tr cho cc hot ng cng
cng
i vi chnh ph:Cn i ngn sch ,
thc hin chnh sch tin t
iu kin pht hnh tri phiu cng ty
a) Doanh nghip c mc vn iu l gp ti thi
im ng k cho bn t mi t ng Vit Nam tr
ln tnh theo gi tr ghi trn s k ton;
b) Hot ng kinh doanh ca nm lin trc nm
ng k cho bn phi c li, ng thi khng c
l lu k tnh n nm ng k cho bn;khng
c cc khon n phi tr qu hn trn 1 nm
c) C phng n pht hnh, phng n s dng v
tr n vn thu c t t cho bn cHQT
hoc hi ng thnh vin hoc ch s hu cng ty
thng qua
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54
Quy trnh pht hnh tri phiu cng ty
Cc bc v th tc pht hnh tri phiu cng
ty cng ging nh cc bc v th tc pht
hnh c phiu.
Tri phiu l chng khon n, h s xin php pht
hnh tri phiu cn phi thm 1 s ti liu khc:
Ngh quyt ca Hi ng qun tr v vic xin php pht
hnh tri phiu ra cng chng,
Cam kt thc hin ngha v ca t chc pht hnh i vi
ngi u t,
Hp ng gia t chc pht hnh v i din ngi s hu
tri phiu
Bin bn xc nh gi tr ti sn bo m( nu l tri phiu
c m bo bng gi tr ti sn )
Quy trnh pht hnh tri phiu:
Quy trnh pht hnh tri
phiu chnh ph ti Vit
Nam:
Vic pht hnh tri phiu
Chnh ph c pht hnh
theo tng t, trc mi t
pht hnh 7 ngy, B Ti
chnh ( Kho bc Nh nc) s
thng bo trn cc phng
tin thng tin i chng
nhng ni dung c lin quan
n t pht hnh tri phiu
Quy trnh pht hnh tri phiu:
Cc B, ngnh , y ban nhn dn tnh, thnh ph
mun pht hnh tri phiu cng trnh phi c cc
iu kin v h s sau:
B
Ti chnh
( Kho bc
nh nc)
-Cng trnh c ghi trong k hoch u t ca
nh nc. C d n u t c cp c thm
quyn ph duyt
-C phng n pht hnh tri phiu c b ti
chnh ph duyt, bo m thu hi vn hon tr
n gc v li theo ng thi hn qui nh.
-C n ngh b ti chnh cho php pht hnh
tri phiu cng trnh theo mu qui nh ca B ti
chnh ( Kho bc Nh nc)
-C ch nh c quan chu tc nhim qun l, s
dng vn v thu hi vn hon tr n c B ti
chnh ng
Pht hnh chng ch qu u
t
iu kin cho bn
Tng gi tr chng ch qu ng k cho
bn ti thiu 50 t VN
C phng n pht hnh v phng n
u t vn
15/08/2011
55
Pht hnh chng khon trc tip
Bn thng tn gc gim chi ph pht hnh
Kh bn v rt chm
Phng thc pht hnh trc tip
Pht hnh theo quyn mua c phn v chng
quyn
Pht hnh cho c ngn la chn mc gi thch
hp
Pht hnh cho cn b cng nhn vin ca cc
doanh nghip nh nc
Pht hnh cho cc c ng c ng k mua c
phiu, tri phiu
Pht hnh chng khon gin tip
C th tiu th khi lng ln chng
khon, huy ng vn nhanh
Ph pht hnh cao
Bo lnh pht hnh
Thng thng, pht hnh chng khon ra
cng chng, t chc pht hnh cn phi c c
s bo lnh pht hnh.
Cng ty ln
mt t hp bo lnh pht hnh
Cng ty nh
mt t chc bo lnh pht hnh.
Bo lnh pht hnh
Cc t chc bo lnh pht hnh c hng
ph bo lnh hoc mt t l hoa hng nht nh
trn s tin thu c t t pht hnh
V d: nu cng chng mua chng khon
phi tr 20.000 mt c phiu, trong khi
cng ty pht hnh nhn 18.000 mt c
phiu th tin ph bo lnh pht hnh l
2.000 mt c phiu.
Ph bo lnh hoc hoa hng bo lnh cao hay
thp l tu thuc vo tnh cht ca t pht
hnh
i vi tri phiu, ph bo lnh hoc hoa hng
ph thuc vo li sut tri phiu
15/08/2011
56
Cc phng thc bo lnh pht hnh
:
Bo lnh vi cam kt chc chn (firm
commitment underwriting)
Bo lnh vi c gng cao nht (best efforts
underwriting)
Bo lnh theo phng thc bn tt c hoc
khng bn g (all or none)
Bo lnh theo phng thc ti thiu - ti a ,
bo lnh vi hn mc ti thiu ( minimum
underwriting)
Bo lnh vi phng thc d phng ( standby
underwriting)
Bo lnh chc chn
T chc bo lnh cam kt s mua ton
b s chng khon pht hnh cho d
c phn phi c ht chng khon
hay khng
Ba lnh vi c gng ti a
T chc bo lnh khng cam kt bn
ton b s chng khon m cam kt s
c gng ht sc bn chng khon ra
th trng, nhng nu khng phn phi
ht s tr li cho t chc pht hnh
phn cn li.
Bo lnh tt c hoc khng
T chc pht hnh yu cu t chc bo
lnh bn mt s lng chng khon
nht nh m cng ty d nh pht
hnh, nu khng phn phi c s
hy b ton b t pht hnh.
15/08/2011
57
Bo lnh vi hn mc ti thiu
T chc pht hnh yu cu t chc bo
lnh bn ti thiu mt t l chng
khon nht nh.
Nu khng ton b t pht hnh s b
hy b.
Bo lnh theo phng thc d
phng
T chc bo lnh d phng sn sng mua
nhng quyn mua khng c thc hin v
chuyn thnh nhng c phiu phn phi
ra ngoi cng chng
T chc bo lnh cam kt s mua nt s
chng khon cn li cha c phn phi ht
ca t chc pht hnh v bn li ra cng
chng
Nghip v nim yt
1. Khi nim Khi nim
2. Cc hnh thc nim yt Cc hnh thc nim yt
3. Cc tiu chun nim yt Cc tiu chun nim yt
4. Nhng thun li v bt li trong NYCK Nhng thun li v bt li trong NYCK
Nim yt chng khon l hnh thc ghi danh chng khon v
danh mc cc chng khon tiu chun ti S GDCK.
Nim yt thng bao hm vic yt tn cng ty, yt chng
khon, v yt gi chng khon trn bng gi chnh thc ti
S GDCK.
Vic nimyt chng khon nhmhng vo 4 mc tiu:
- Bo v cc nh u t
- Thit lp mt quan h hp ng gia S GDCK v cng
ty pht hnh chng khon
- Bo m tnh trung thc, cng bng, an ton, cng khai
- Gip gia tng khi lng chng khon cung ng
1.Khi nim:
15/08/2011
58
2. Cc hnh thc nim yt:
Nim yt ln u: l vic cho php chng khon ca mt cng ty c
ng k nim yt ln u tin ti s GDCK , sau khi cng ty tha
mn cc yu cu.
- Nim yt b sung: l vic nim yt tip nhng chng khon pht hnh
b sung nhm mc ch tng vn, st nhp, chi tr c tc,
- Nim yt thay i: l vic thay i cc ni dung nim yt nh: tn, s
lng loi, mnh gi, tng gi tr chng khon c nim yt.
- Nim yt li: l vic cho php mt cng ty pht hnh c tip tc
nim yt tr li cc chng khon trc y d b hy b v khng p
ng c cc tiu chunduy tr nim yt.
- Nim yt cho: l hnh thc chng khon ca cng ty va c nim
yt v giao dch trn TTCK trong nc v TTCK ca nc ngoi.
3. Cc tiu chun nim yt:
Tiu chun nh lng:
- Thi gian hot ng lin tc ti thiu ca cng ty: Cng ty
nim yt phi c 1 nn tng kinh doanh y v hot
ng lin tc.
- Quy m vn: Vn ng gp, vn ng k, vn c phn ca
cng ty
- C cu s hu c phn: S lng v t l c phiu nm
gi bi cc c ng ti thiu v cc c ng ln.
- Kh nng sinh li.
- T l n
- C cu bu c.
3. Cc tiu chun nim yt
(tt):
* Tiu chun nh tnh:
- Li ch mang li i vi quc gia
- V tr v s n nh tng i ca cng ty trong ngnh
- Trin vng ca cng ty
- Phng n kh thi v s dng vn pht hnh
- kin kim ton v cc bo co ti chnh
- T chc cng khai thng tin
- C cu t chc hot ng ca cng ty
- Mu chng ch chng khon
a) iu kin nim yt c phiu:
- L cng ty c phn c vn iu l gp ti thi im xin php
nim yt t 80 t VN tr ln, c tnh hnh ti chnh lnh mnh v
hot ng kinh doanh 2 nm lin tc c li trc nm xin php
nim yt.
- i vi doanh nghip nh nc c phn ha v nim yt ngay trn
th trng chng khon th hot ng kinh doanh ca nm lin
trc nm xin php phi c li.
- Cc c ng l thnh vin hi ng qun tr, ban gim c,
ban kim sot ca cng ty phi cam kt nm gi t nht 100% s
c phiu do mnh s hu trong 6 thng u tin v 50% trong 6
thng tip theo
Cc iu kin nim yt ti S GDCK TP.HCM
15/08/2011
59
b) iu kin nimyt tri phiu:
-L cng ty c phn, cng ty trch nhim hu hn, doanh
nghip nh nc c vn iu l gp ti thi im xin
php nimyt t 80 t ng VNtr ln.
- Hot ng kinh doanh c li 2 nm lin tc lin trc
nm xin php nim yt v c tnh hnh ti chnh lnh
mnh.
- C t nht 100 ngi s hu tri phiu.
Cc iu kin nim yt ti S GDCK TP.HCM
iu kin nim yt chng ch qu u t
Trong vng 30 ngy, k t khi kt thc t pht hnh
chng ch qu u t chng khon ra cng chng,
qu u t chng khon phi lm th tc ng k
nim yt vi y ban chng khon nh nc, nu p
ng cc iu kin sau y:
- Qu c tng gi tr chng ch qu u t chng
khon (theo mnh gi) pht hnh ti thiu 50 t ng
VN.
iu kin ng k nim yt chng khon ti
HaSTC
a) iu kin nimyt c phiu:
* L cng ty c phn c vn iu l gp ti thi
im ng k nimyt t 10 t ng Vit Nam tr ln
tnh theo gi tr ghi trn s k ton;
* Hot ng kinh doanh ca nm lin trc nmng
k nim yt phi c li, khng c cc khon n phi
tr qu hn trn mt nm v hon thnh cc ngha v
ti chnh vi Nh nc;
* C phiu c quyn biu quyt ca cng ty do t nht
100 c ng nmgi;
* C ng l thnh vin Hi ng qun tr, Ban Kim sot,
Gim c hoc Tng gim c, Ph Gim c hoc Ph Tng
gimc v K ton trng ca cng ty phi cam kt nmgi
100%s c phiu do mnh s hu trong thi gian 6 thng k t
ngy nim yt v 50% s c phiu ny trong thi gian 6 thng
tip theo, khng tnh s c phiu thuc s hu Nh nc do cc
c nhn trn i din nmgi;
* C h s ng k nim yt c phiu hp l theo quy nh ti
khon 2 iu 10 Ngh nh ny;
* Vic nim yt c phiu ca cc doanh nghip thnh lp mi
thuc lnh vc c s h tng hoc cng ngh cao, doanh nghip
100% vn nh nc chuyn i thnh cng ty c phn khng
phi p ng iu kin quy nh ti imb khon 1 iu ny.
iu kin ng k nim yt chng khon ti
HaSTC
15/08/2011
60
b) iu kin nimyt tri phiu doanh nghip
* L cng ty c phn, cng ty trch nhim hu hn, doanh
nghip nh nc c vn iu l gp ti thi im ng k
nimyt t 10 t ng Vit Namtr ln tnh theo gi tr ghi trn
s k ton;
* Cc tri phiu ca mt t pht hnh c cng ngy o hn;
* C h s ng k nimyt tri phiu hp l theo quy nh ti
khon 3 iu 10 Ngh nh ny.
c) Tri phiu Chnh ph, tri phiu c Chnh ph bo lnh,
tri phiu chnh quyn a phng c nim yt trn Trung
tmGiao dch chng khon theo ngh ca t chc pht hnh
tri phiu.
iu kin ng k nimyt chng khon ti HaSTC
a) Nhng thun li:
- Cng ty s d dng huy ng c khi lng vn ln vi chi ph
thp hn.
- Ngi u t tin tng hn vo cng ty nim yt v tnh thanh
khon ca chng khan nim yt thng cao hn.
- tn nhim ca cng ty nim yt s c nng cao trn th trng.
- Vic giao dch mua bn, chuyn nhng, th chp thun li hn i
vi ngi s hu chng khon nim yt v trong mt s trng hp
cng ty nim yt c u i v thu hn.
b) Nhng bt li:
- Cng ty chng khon nim yt phi tun th ch bo co, ch
cng b thng tin cht ch hn.
- D b thu tm, st nhp, quyn s hu d b pha long
4. Nhng thun li v bt li trong nim yt chng khon
Lnh gii hn (LO)
Lnh th trng (MP)
Lnh giao dch ti mc gi khp lnh
xc nh gi m ca (ATO)
Lnh giao dch ti mc gi khp lnh
xc nh gi ng ca (ATC)
Cc loi lnh giao dch chng khon
Lnh GD
T1
8h30-9h00
T2
9h00-10h15
T3
10h15-
10h30
ATO X
LO X X X
MP
ATC X
3. Cc loi lnh trn sn
chng khon Vit Nam
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61
L lnh mua hoc lnh bn chng khon
ti mt mc gi xc nh hoc tt hn
Hiu lc ca lnh:k t khi lnh c nhp
vo h thng giao dch cho n lc kt
thc ngy giao dch hoc cho n khi lnh
b hy b
Lnh gii hn (LO)
Kt qu khp lnh:
-Gi khp 100- KL khp 2000
-3000 (F) t ng b hy
C phiu AAA; Gi tham chiu: 99
S lnh nh sau:
KL Mua Gi Mua Gi bn KL Bn
5000 100 98 1000
100 1000
F
Lnh th trng (MP)
L lnh mua ti mc gi bn thp nht
hoc lnh bn ti mc gi mua cao nht
hin c trn th trng
Nu sau khi so khp lnh theo nguyn tc
trn m khi lng t lnh ca lnh MP
vn cha thc hin ht th lnh MP s
c xem l lnh mua ti mc gi bn cao
hn hoc lnh bn ti mc gi mua thp
hn tip theo hin c trn th trng
Nu KL t lnh ca lnh MP vn cn theo
nguyn tc trn v khng th tip tc
khp th lnh MP s c chuyn thnh
lnh LO mua (bn) ti mc gi cao (thp)
Lnh th trng (MP) cha
p dng
S lnh c phiu BBB nh sau:
Kt qu khp lnh:
5000 - 1000 (GD 1000 mc gi thc hin 98)
- 2000 (GD 2000 mc gi thc hin 99)
2000 chuyn thnh lnh LO mua ti mc gi 99.5
KL Mua Gi mua Gi bn KL Bn
98 1000
99 2000
5000 MP
V d v lnh MP
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S lnh c phiu BBB nh sau:
Kt qu khp lnh:
5000 - 1000 (GD 1000 mc gi thc hin 98)
- 2000 (GD 2000 mc gi thc hin 99)
2000 chuyn thnh lnh LO mua ti mc gi 99.5
KL Mua Gi mua Gi bn KL Bn
2000 99.5
V d v lnh MP
L lnh mua hoc bn ti mc gi m ca.
Lnh ATO u tin trc lnh gii hn khi so
khp lnh.
T ng hy b khi khp lnh nu lnh khng
c thc hin hoc khng thc hin ht
V d: s lnh CP CCC vi gi tham chiu 100
KL Mua Gi mua Gi bn KL Bn
Kt qu khp lnh: gi 100-KL 1500
C-B (1000); C-A (500): lnh ATO c u tin khp lnh trc lnh LO
99 2000 (A)
ATO 1000 (B)
1500 100 (C)
Lnh Giao dch ti mc gi khp
lnh - (ATO)
Lnh mua CK
Tn CTCK PHIU LNH MUA CHNG KHON
Ngy.....thng......nm
STT
Tn khch hng:..................................S CMND/H chiu:........................................
Tn chng khon mua:..................................................................................................
S lng: (Bng s)................................(Bng ch).....................................................
n gi:.................................................................................................ngn ng/CK
M s giao dch:.......................................S TK tin gi:.............................................
Khch hng
Lnh bn CK
Tn CTCK PHIU LNH BN CHNG KHON
Ngy.....thng......nm
STT
Tn khch hng:..................................S CMND/H chiu:........................................
Tn chng khon bn:..................................................................................................
S lng: (Bng s)................................(Bng ch).....................................................
n gi:.................................................................................................ngn ng/CK
M s giao dch:.......................................S TK tin gi:.............................................
Khch hng
15/08/2011
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Lnh hy
Tn CTCK PHIU LNH HY
Ngy.....thng......nm
STT
Tn khch hng:..................................S CMND/H chiu:........................................
Lnh gc:
M s giao dch:.......................................S TT lnh c:.............................................
Chng khon:........................S lng:.....................n gi:..................../ngn ng
S lng Khp: ....................
S lng hy: ....................... Gi nhn lnh
Khch hng
Th t u tin thc hin lnh
1. u tin theo gi
Lnh mua: gi cao
Lnh bn: gi thp
2. u tin theo thi gian
3. u tin theo s lng
4. u tin theo khch hng: c nhn c thc hin
trc t chc
M CK: CP3 k t; CCQT-6 k t, TP-8 k t
SH CTCK: 001C; 002C; .....
SH KH: 001C000000001; 002C000000001
n v giao dch: l
n v tin t: 1.000
Bc gi:
Ti HoSTC
+ X < = 49.900 bc gi 100
+ 50.000 <= X <= 99.500 bc gi 500
+ X >=100.000 bc gi 1.000
Ti HaSTC bc gi l 100
MT S QUY NH CA TTCK
Nguyn tc (T + 3): Mi th tc s c hon
tt sau 3 ngy thc t lm vic tnh t thi im
giao dch T
Bin bin ng gi: l mt t l % so vi gi
tham chiu (GTC).
Hin nay, TTGDTPHCM 5%, TTGD H
Ni 7%
GTC l gi ng ca ca ngy hm qua
Ch : nhng ngy giao dch c bit th
GTC s c iu chnh.
V d: ngy giao dch khng c c tc, th
GTC = GC ngy hm qua - C tc
MT S QUY NH CA TTCK
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Lnh mua, bn CK c gi tr trong ngy. Lnh mua, bn CK c gi tr trong ngy.
Trong mt ln khp lnh khng c php Trong mt ln khp lnh khng c php
mua, bn cng mt loi CK mua, bn cng mt loi CK
Trong mt ln khp lnh khng c php s Trong mt ln khp lnh khng c php s
dng lnh hu, m lnh hu ch c php s dng lnh hu, m lnh hu ch c php s
dng gia 2 ln khp lnh. dng gia 2 ln khp lnh.
Khch hng ch c php quan h giao dch Khch hng ch c php quan h giao dch
vi mt CTCK. vi mt CTCK.
T l k qu: thay i theo tng thi k, Hin T l k qu: thay i theo tng thi k, Hin
nay: nu bn (100%), nu mua (70%). nay: nu bn (100%), nu mua (70%).
Ti HaSTC k qu theo tha thun Ti HaSTC k qu theo tha thun
MT S QUY NH CA TTCK
MT S CNG TY CHNG
KHON
Tn cng ty Vn iu l Website
BVSC Co CP. CK BO VIT 49,450,000,000 www.bvsc.com.vn
BSC Co TNHH CK NH U T & PHT TRIN VIT NAM 100,000,000,000 www.bsc.com.vn
SSI Co CP. CK SI GN 500,000,000,000 www.ssi.com.vn
FSC Co CP. CK NHT 43,000,000,000 www.fsc.com.vn
TSC Co TNHH CK THNG LONG 43,000,000,000
ACBS Co TNHH CK CHU 250,000,000,000 www.acbs.com.vn
IBS Co TNHH CK NH CNG THNG VIT NAM 105,000,000,000 www.ibs.com.vn
AGRISECO Co TNHH CK NH NNG NGHIP & PHT TRIN NNG THN 100,000,000,000
VCBS Co TNHH CK NH NGOI THNG 60,000,000,000 www.vcbs.com.vn
MSC Co CP. CK M KNG 22,000,000,000
www.mekongsecuri
ties.com.vn
HSC Co CP. CK TP. H CH MINH 50,000,000,000 www.hsc.com.vn
HASECO Co CP. CK HI PHNG 21,750,000,000 www.hspc.com.vn
T CHC S GIAO DCH T CHC S GIAO DCH CK (TTGDCK) CK (TTGDCK)
Sn giao dch CK
HoSTC & HaSTC
UBCKNN
Cng ty CK
thnh vin
Cng ty
nim yt CK
Nh u t
Nh mi gii
Truyn lnh
LP
GI
SGDCK
KHCH
HNG
CNG
TY
CHNG
KHON
KHCH
HNG
Cng ty
TRUYN LNH
TRUYN LNH
XC NHN
XC NHN
15/08/2011
65
Phng thc giao dch khp
lnh
Khp lnh nh k
Khp lnh lin tc
Phng thc giao dch tha
thun
PHNG THC GIAO DCH
(HOSE)
Khp lnh nh k Khp lnh nh k
L L phng phng thc thc giao giao dch dch c c thc thc hin hin
trn trn c c s s so so khp khp cc cc lnh lnh mua mua v v lnh lnh
bn bn chng chng khon khon ti ti mt mt thi thi im im xc xc
nh nh..
Khp lnh lin tc Khp lnh lin tc
L L phng phng thc thc giao giao dch dch c c thc thc hin hin
trn trn c c s s so so khp khp cc cc lnh lnh mua mua v v lnh lnh
bn bn chng chng khon khon ngay ngay khi khi lnh lnh c c nhp nhp
vo vo h h thng thng giao giao dch dch..
Phng thc giao dch khp lnh (HOSE) Phng thc giao dch khp lnh (HOSE)
NGUYN TC
XC NH
GI
Nu c nhiu mc gi tha mn KLGD ln nht
th gi no gn vi GTC s c la chn
Nu c 2 mc gi cng gn vi GTC
th la chn gi cao hn GTC
L mc gi c cung cu tha mn nhiu nht
(khi lng giao dch ln nht)
Phng php khp lnh (nh k) Phng php khp lnh (nh k)
V d: C tnh hnh t lnh nh sau
M1 500 10.5 B2 400 10.8
M2 700 10.2 B2 600 11.2
M3 700 10.4 B3 300 10.3
M4 600 10.8 B4 600 10.5
M5 700 11.0 B5 400 11.1
M6 200 10.6 B6 400 10.4
Hy xc nh gi v khi lng giao dch, Bit
rng:
* Ga Tham Chiu: 10.7
* Bin dao ng gi: 5%
Phng php khp lnh (nh k) Phng php khp lnh (nh k)
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66
MUA
GI
BN
SHMG S LNG
TNG S
LNG
TNG
S
LNG
S LNG SHMG
0 11.2 2.700 600 B2
0 11.1 2.100 400 B5
M5 700 700 11.0 1.700
M4 600 1.300 10.8 1.700 400 B2
M6 200 1.500 10.6 1.300
M1 500 2.000 10.5 1.300 600 B4
M3 700 2.700 10.4 700 400 B6
2.700 10.3 300 300 B3
M2 700 3.400 10.2 0
Phng php khp lnh (nh k) Phng php khp lnh (nh k)
Ta thy, khi lng giao dch ln nht l 1.300. Ti 3 mc
gi tha mn ln lt l: 10.8; 10.6 v 10.5.
Lc ny GTC l 10.7, nn ta la chn gi 10.8 hoc 10.6.
Vy, gi la chn l 10.8 v cao hn GTC.
Kt lun: Gi cng b l 10.8
Khi lng giao dch l 1.300
Nhng lnh mua c thc hin: M5 v M4
Nhng lnh bn c thc hin: B3, B6 v B4
Phng php khp lnh (nh k) Phng php khp lnh (nh k)
V d: C tnh hnh t lnh nh sau
M1 500 10.5 B2 400 10.8
M2 700 10.2 B2 600 11.2
M3 700 10.4 B3 300 10.3
M4 600 10.8 B4 600 10.5
M5 700 11.0 B5 400 11.1
M6 200 10.6 B6 400 10.4
M7 100 ATO B7 300 ATO
Hy xc nh gi v khi lng giao dch, Bit rng:
* Ga Tham Chiu: 10.7
* Bin dao ng gi: 5%
Phng php khp lnh (nh k) Phng php khp lnh (nh k)
MUA
GI
BN
SHMG
S
LNG
TNG S
LNG
TNG S
LNG
S LNG SHMG
M7 100 ATO
100 11.2 3.000 600 B2
100 11.1 2.400 400 B5
M5 700 800 11.0 2.000
M4 600 1.400 10.8 2.000 400 B2
M6 200 1.600 10.6 1.600
M1 500 2.100 10.5 1.600 600 B4
M3 700 2.800 10.4 1000 400 B6
2.800 10.3 600 300 B3
M2 700 3.500 10.2 300
ATO 300 B7
Phng php khp lnh (nh k) Phng php khp lnh (nh k)
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Ta thy, khi lng giao dch ln nht l 1.600. Ti 2 mc
gi tha mn ln lt l: 10.6 v 10.5.
Lc ny GTC l 10.7, nn ta la chn gi 10.6.
Kt lun: Gi cng b l 10.6
Khi lng giao dch l 1.600
Nhng lnh mua c thc hin: M7, M5, M4,M7
Nhng lnh bn c thc hin: B7, B3, B6 v B4
5. Phng php khp lnh (nh k) 5. Phng php khp lnh (nh k)
5. Phng thc khp lnh lin tc
Phng Phng thc thc giao giao dch dch khp khp lnh lnh lin lin
tc tc:: Cc Cc lnh lnh mua mua v v bn bn lin lin tc tc
nhp nhp vo vo h h thng thng u u gi gi.. Cc Cc giao giao
dch dch nhanh nhanh chng chng c c hnh hnh thnh thnh
mi mi khi khi c c s s ph ph hp hp v v gi gi..
Ti TTGDCK H Ni Giao Ti TTGDCK H Ni Giao d dch t ch t: :
88hh30 30 n n 10 10hh30 30..
T Ti HOSE giao i HOSE giao d dch t ch t: : 99hh00 00 10 10hh15 15
Nguyn tc xc nh gi
TH1: Gi mua cao nht= gi bn thp nht,
hai lnh s giao dch mc gi ny
TH2: lnh mua nhp vo sau v to nn tnh
trng gi mua cao nht ln hn gi bn thp
nht nhp vo h thng, hai lnh s giao
dch ti mc gi ca lnh bn
TH3: Lnh bn nhp vo sau v to nn tnh
trng gi bn thp nht nh hn gi mua cao
nht nhp vo h thng, hai lnh s giao
dch ti mc gi ca lnh mua
KL Mua Gi KL Bn KL Thc hin
53.000
52.000
51.000
50.500
50.000
49.900
1000
500
500
D mua: 500 ti mc gi 50.500 v 1000 ti mc gi 50.000
D bn 2000 ti mc gi 52.000
V d khp lnh lin tc
15/08/2011
68
KL Mua Gi KL Bn KL Thc hin
53.000
52.000 Case3: 2000
51.000 Case2: 1000
50.500 Case2: 500
50.000
49.900 Case1: 1000
1000
1000
1500
2000 2000
D mua: 500 ti mc gi 50.500 v 1000 ti mc gi 50.000
D bn 2000 ti mc gi 52.000
1000
1000 1000
2000
V d khp lnh lin tc
Nghip v lu k
1. Khi nim Khi nim
2. M hnh trung tm lu k CK M hnh trung tm lu k CK
3. Cc loi hnh lu k Cc loi hnh lu k
Nghip v lu k
1. Khi nim:
Lu k chng khon l mt khi nim tng hp
bao gm hai nghip v: Lu gi v iu hnh
chng khon theo y thc.
Ti Vit Nam th lu k chng khon cng c th
hiu l vic lu gi, bo qun chng khon ca
khch hng v gip khch hng thc hin cc
quyn ca mnh i vi chng khon.
2.M hnh trung tm lu k chng
khon
*M hnh qun l 1 cp :
L m hnh qun l trc tip ti khon ca cc nh
u t.
Trung tm lu k chng khon tr thnh mt u
mi thng tin v thng qua h thng ca mnh c th
gip UBCK thc hin nhng quy nh v qun l bn
khng, mua bn ni gin mt cch cht ch.
Ti khon ca nh u t c ghi c v ghi n trc
tip ti TTLK. Cc thnh vin lu k ng vai tr l
ngi theo di ti khon cho ngi u t.
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*M *M hnh hnh qun qun l l 22 cp cp (ph (ph bin) bin)
L L m m hnh hnh qun qun l l ti ti khon khon thnh thnh vin vin lu lu
k k..
Ch Ch c c cc cc thnh thnh vin vin lu lu k k mi mi dc dc m m ti ti
khon khon ti ti TTLK TTLK..
Ngi Ngi s s hu hu m m ti ti khon khon v v k k gi gi chng chng
ch ch chng chng khon khon ca ca mnh mnh ti ti thnh thnh vin vin lu lu
k k v v thnh thnh vin vin lu lu k k ti ti lu lu k k chng chng khon khon
ti ti TTLK TTLK
2.M hnh trung tm lu k chng
khon
*M *M hnh hnh qun qun l l ti ti khon khon hn hn hp hp
Mt Mt m m hnh hnh khc khc cho cho php php ngi ngi s s hu hu
chng chng khon khon c c m m ti ti khon khon v v lu lu k k
chng chng khon khon ti ti hai hai ni ni:: ti ti thnh thnh vin vin lu lu k k
hoc hoc trc trc tip tip ti ti trung trung tm tmlu lu k k..
M M hnh hnh ny ny t t ph ph bin bin v v thng thng l l hnh hnh
thc thc bin bin dng dng ca ca m m hnh hnh hai hai cp cp ..
2.M hnh trung tm lu k chng
khon
-- Theo Theo m m hnh hnh qun qun l l hai hai cp cp..
-- TTLK TTLKl l ni ni tp tp trung trung lu lu tr tr chng chng khon khon..
-- Cc Cc thnh thnh vin vin lu lu k k l l cc cc cty cty chng chng khon khon
thnh thnh vin vin c c m m ti ti khon khon TTLKCK TTLKCK..
-- Ngi Ngi s s hu hu m m ti ti khon khon v v k k gi gi chng chng
khon khon ca ca mnh mnh ti ti thnh thnh vin vin lu lu k k v v thnh thnh
vin vin lu lu k k ti ti lu lu k k chng chng khon khon tp tp trung trung ti ti
TTLKCK TTLKCK..
Trung tm lu k chng khon ca Vit Nam
-Lu gi kn
-Lu gi m
-Lu k bit lp
-Lu k hon i
+ Lu k tng hp
-Lu k ti t chc th ba
-Lu k th chp
-Lu k phong ta
3.Cc loi hnh lu k
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Nimyt v lu k ng vai tr rt quan trng trong
hot ng ca TTCK.
N nh hng trc tip n qu trnh giao dch ca
TTCK.
Kt lun
8/15/2011
Analysing & Investment on
Securities
CopyrightSon.PV 278
1. Qui trnh giao dch
Qui trnh giao dch mua bn Ck
1. M TK ti Co.CK
2. Ra lnh Mua Bn
3. u gi, khp lnh
4. Thanh ton
5. Thng bo KQ giao dch
BC 1
Nh u t n m TK v t lnh
mua bn CK ti mt CTCK
BC 2
CTCK chuyn lnh mua bn CK cho nh
mi gii ti sn giao dch, ngi ny nhp
lnh vo h thng giao dch
BC 3
TTGDCK thc hin khp lnh v
thng bo kt qu giao dch cho CTCK
Quy trnh giao dch mua bn CK
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BC 4
CTCK thng bo kt qu giao dch
cho nh u t
BC 5
Nh u t nhn c CK hoc tin
trn TK ca mnh ti CTCK sau 3 ngy
CH
Nh u t ch mua bn qua CTCK,
khng tham gia trc tip ti TTGDCK
Quy trnh giao dch mua bn CK
Tn CTCK THNG BO KT QU GIAO DCH
Ngy thng nm
Khch hng:............S TK giao dich:.........S TK tin gi:...............
CC CHI TIT LNH GC:
Chng khon: ABC Loigd: BN
KT QU GIAO DCH
S lng: 4,000 Gi: 30,000 Thnh tin: 120,000,000 ng
Tng s giao dch: 4,000 c phiu Thnh tin: 120,000,000 ng
Ph giao dch (0.50%): 600,000 ng
Tng s tin khch hng thc nhn: 119,400,000 ng
( Bng ch: .......................................................................)
Quy trnh giao dch mua bn CK
PHN TCH CHNG KHON
LI CH U T VO C PHIU
C tc
Mnh gi c phn gia tng
Quyn tham gia qun tr, kim sot
cng ty
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72
LI CH U T VO TRI PHIU
Hng li c nh hng nm
i vi tri phiu chnh ph:min thu
thu nhp
i vi tri phiu c th chuyn
i:Chnh lch gia gi tr th trng v
mnh gi
NGHA PHN TCH CHNG
KHON
La chn thi im mua bn c li nht
La chn c loi chng khon cn
mua bn
Xc nh gi mua bn chng khon hp
l
Phn tch c bn
Phn tch c bn: phn tch tt c cc yu t tc ng ti gi:
phn tch nn kinh t, ngnh, cng ty.
Tm gi tr ni ti v so snh vi gi hin hnh.
im mnh:
Tt cho u t di hn thng qua phn tch xu th nn kinh
t.
La chn cng ty tt.
Hiu c cc yu t chnh tc ng ti gi tr cng
ty/ngnh.
im yu:
Mt nhiu thi gian.
K thut nh gi tu thuc nhm ngnh/cng ty.
Tnh ch quan (cc gi nh v tng trng)
Cc thng tin phn tch khng y v khng chnh xc
(cc bo co ti chnh).
6 im c bn khi PTCB:
Lnh vc kinh doanh
Vn v c cu vn
Hi ng qun tr, Ban gim c, Ban kim sot
Ch s ti chnh
Sn phm, thng hiu v h thng phn phi - dch v
Giao dch ca NT nc ngoi v cc t chc ln
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Lnh vc kinh doanh
Bit c lnh vc kinh doanh chnh
ca cng ty gip chng ta c ci nhn r
nt hn v nhng nh hng c th c
ti doanh nghip nh mi trng kinh
t v m, lut php, thin tai, i th
cnh tranh...
Vn v c cu vn
- Qu trnh tng vn ca doanh nghip: Trc v sau khi doanh nghip
tng vn th gi c phiu thng tng mnh.
- C cu s hu vn: Mt c phiu c nhiu c ng chin lc th tt
trong di hn, v k vng ca NT tng cao. Doanh nghip c t l s
hu ca Nh nc v c ng chin lc ln th s c phiu ang giao
dch trn th trng t hn nhiu so vi tng s c phiu, iu ny c
li cho gi c phiu v lng cung b hn ch.
- Vn ch s hu, thng d vn, li nhun: nu mt doanh nghip c
li nhun ln v t l vay n hin ti cao th nhiu kh nng doanh
nghip s tng vn gim bt chi ph vay. Hn na, nu doanh
nghip c vn ch s hu ln hn nhiu so vi vn iu l th iu
d dng lm cho EPS ca c phiu tng cao.
Hi ng qun tr, Ban gim c,
Ban kim sot

- Hi ng qun tr bao gm nhng ai, t l vn gp ca h;


chin lc ra c v quyn li ca c ng, liu c s phn
bit i x gia c ng t chc v c ng nh l.
- S lng c phiu nm gi ca thnh vin Hi ng qun tr,
Ban gim c, Ban kim sot v nhng ngi lin quan: Nu s
lng nm gi c phiu cng ln th r rng l h u t nim
tin vo kh nng tng trng ca c phiu v l c phiu
tt. Cn khi h bn ra vi s lng ln th l tn hiu xu.
Ch s ti chnh

C nhng doanh nghip t l n rt cao nhng iu l bnh


thng v l c th ca ngnh (nh ngnh xy dng) hoc
c nhng doanh nghip c t l li nhun sau thu/doanh thu
rt thp v h hot ng xut nhp khu...
Cn so snh cc ch s vi cc doanh nghip khc cng
ngnh v mc bnh qun ca ngnh thy r c u - nhc
im ca doanh nghip.
NT nn xy dng cho mnh bng ch s ti chnh cho cc
nhm ngnh t c ci nhn su sc v ton din hn, so
snh ch s ca cc nhm ngnh vi mc bnh qun ton th
trng.
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Sn phm, thng hiu v
h thng phn phi - dch v
Doanh nghip c thng hiu v sn phm uy tn
trn th trng, cng vi h thng phn phi v dch
v tt th gi c phiu ca doanh nghip thng
mc cao hn so vi mt bng chung.
Mt s doanh nghip to dng c uy tn trn th
trng trong v ngoi nc, c nhng i tc chin
lc th gi c phiu n nh v tng trng bn
vng hn nhng doanh nghip nh cha gy dng
c thng hiu, uy tn cho ring mnh.
Giao dch ca NT nc ngoi
v cc t chc ln
NT nc ngoi thng mua vo nhng c phiu c
tim nng tng trng trong di hn, v cc t chc
cng nh c nhn trong nc vn thng quan st
cc ng tnh ca NT nc ngoi.
Vic u t ngn hn trn nhng c phiu thuc din
u t di hn em li cm gic t ri ro hn, nht l
khi c phiu c cc t chc nc ngoi nm gi
vi khi lng ln v ang tip tc mua thm.
Nhng vn cn lu trc
khi quyt nh u t
Nhng ri ro khi u t vo mt m c phiu
c th
Thi im mua bn
Thi gian nm gi v li nhun k vng
c lng thit hi ln nht c th xy ra v
cch thc gim thiu ri ro (mua thm
bnh qun gi hay bn ct l).
Mt s ch tiu ti chnh c bn trong
Phn tch c bn
Ch tiu
Kt qu hot ng kinh doanh
H s kh nng thanh ton
H s kh nng sinh li
H s c cu ti chnh
Cc ch s v c phiu
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75
Ch tiu
- Vn iu l: l s vn do tt c cc c ng ng
gp v c ghi vo iu l ca cng ty.
- C phiu ang lu hnh: l s lng c phiu ca
cng ty hin ang lu hnh trn th trng.
- C phiu qu: l c phiu pht hnh v c
mua, bn li trn th trng bi chnh t chc pht
hnh.
Kt qu hot ng kinh doanh
- Tng ti sn: l tng gi tr ca ton b ti sn hin c ca
cng ty tnh n thi im lp bo co
- Vn ch s hu: l ngun vn thuc s hu ca cng ty, vn
ch s hu thng bao gm: vn gp ban u, li nhun khng
chia, pht hnh c phiu mi, cc qu ca cng ty.
- Doanh thu thun: l tng s doanh thu bn hng (tr i cc
khon gim tr) cng ty t c trong nm.
- Li nhun sau thu: L tng s tin thc li (li nhun trc
thu thu thu nhp doanh nghip) cng ty thu v trong nm.
H s kh nng thanh ton
H s thanh ton ngn hn
H s thanh ton nhanh
H s thanh ton ngn hn:
H s thanh ton ngn hn = Tng ti sn lu ng / Tng n
ngn hn
- H s ny l thc o kh nng thanh ton ngn hn ca
cng ty, n cho bit t l cc khon n ngn hn ca cng ty
c tr bng cc ti sn tng ng vi thi hn ca cc
khon n .
- H s ny ca tng cng ty thng c so snh vi h s
trung bnh ca ngnh, tuy nhin mi ngnh s c mt h s
trung bnh khc nhau.
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H s thanh ton nhanh:
H s thanh ton nhanh = (Tng ti sn lu ng Hng tn
kho) / Tng n ngn hn
- H s ny ni ln vic cng ty c nhiu kh nng p ng vic
thanh ton n ngn hn v cng ty d dng chuyn t ti sn
lu ng khc v tin mt.
- H s ny cng thng c so snh vi h s trung bnh ca
ngnh, thng thng kh nng thanh ton ca cng ty c
nh gi an ton khi h s ny > 0,5 ln v cng ty c th trang
tri cc khon n ngn hn m khng cn n cc ngun thu
hay doanh s bn hng.
H s kh nng sinh li
H s tng li nhun
H s li nhun rng
T sut li nhun trn tng ti sn (ROA)
T sut li nhun trn vn t c (ROE)
H s tng li nhun:
H s tng li nhun = (Doanh s - Tr gi hng bn theo
gi mua) / Doanh s bn
- H s ny cho bit mc hiu qu khi s dng cc yu t
u vo (vt t, lao ng) trong mt quy trnh sn xut ca
doanh nghip.
- Trong thc t khi mun xem cc chi ph ny c cao qu hay
khng l em so snh h s tng s li nhun ca mt cng ty
vi h s ca cc cng ty cng ngnh, nu h s tng li nhun
ca cc cng ty i th cnh tranh cao hn, th cng ty cn c
gii php tt hn trong vic kim sot cc chi ph u vo.
H s li nhun rng
H s li nhun rng = Li nhun sau thu / Doanh thu thun
- H s li nhun rng phn nh khon thu nhp rng (thu
nhp sau thu) ca mt cng ty so vi doanh thu ca n. H s
ny cng cao th cng tt v n phn nh hiu qu hot ng
ca cng ty.
- Trn thc t mc li nhun rng gia cc ngnh l khc nhau,
cn trong bn thn 1 ngnh th cng ty no qun l v s dng
yu t u vo tt hn th s c h s li nhun cao hn. y l
mt trong cc bin php quan trng o lng kh nng to li
nhun ca cng ty nm nay so vi cc nm khc.
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T sut li nhun trn tng ti sn
(ROA)
ROA = Li nhun sau thu / Tng ti sn
- ROA l h s tng hp nht c dng nh gi
kh nng sinh li ca mt ng vn u t. ROA cho
bit c mt ng ti sn th cng ty to ra bao nhiu
ng li nhun v ROA nh gi hiu sut s dng
ti sn ca cng ty.
- H s ny cng cao th c phiu cng c sc hp
dn hn v h s ny cho thy kh nng sinh li t
chnh ngun ti sn hot ng ca cng ty.
T sut li nhun trn vn t c
(ROE)
ROE = Li nhun sau thu / Vn ch s hu
- ROE cho bit mt ng vn t c to c bao
nhiu ng li nhun. ROE cng cao th kh nng
cnh tranh ca cng ty cng mnh v c phiu ca
cng ty cng hp dn, v h s ny cho thy kh
nng sinh li v t sut li nhun ca cng ty, hn
na tng mc doanh li vn ch s hu l mt mc
tiu quan trng nht trong hot ng qun l ti
chnh ca cng ty.
H s c cu ti chnh
H s n
H s c cu ngun vn
H s n
H s n = N phi tr / Tng ti sn
- H s ny cho bit phn trm tng ti sn ca cng
ty c ti tr bng cc khon n l bao nhiu.
- H s n thp c th cho thy vic s dng n
khng hiu qu, cn h s n cao th hin gnh
nng v n ln, nh vy 1 h s n/ tng ti sn l
hp l s tu thuc vo nhu cu v kh nng t ti
tr ca cng ty.
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H s c cu ngun vn
H s c cu ngun vn = Li nhun sau thu / Vn
ch s hu
- H s ny phn nh t trng ngun vn ch s hu
trn tng ngun vn ca cng ty.
- xc nh mc ph hp v t l vn ch s
hu trong tng ngun vn ca cng ty s ph thuc
rt ln vo hot ng v chnh sch ca tng cng ty
cng nh ca tng ngnh.
Cc ch s v c phiu
C tc:
Thu nhp trn mi c phiu ( EPS )
Gi trn thu nhp ca c phiu ( P/E )
C tc trn th gi ( D/P )
Gi tr s sch ca
c phiu ph thng
C tc:
l s tin hng nm c trch t li
nhun ca cng ty tr cho mi c
phiu m c ng nm gi.
Thu nhp trn mi c phiu ( EPS )
EPS = (Li nhun rng - C tc u i) / S
lng c phiu ph thng
- EPS cho bit nh u t c hng li
nhun trn mi c phn h ang nm gi
hng nm l bao nhiu. Ch s ny cng cao
th cng c nh gi tt v khi khon
thu nhp trn mi c phiu s cao hn.
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Gi trn thu nhp ca c phiu
( P/E )

P/E = Gi th trng / Thu nhp ca mi c phiu


- H s P/E o lng mi quan h gia gi th trng (Market Price - P)
v thu nhp ca mi c phiu (Earning Per Share - EPS)
- P/E cho thy gi c phiu hin ti cao hn thu nhp t c phiu
bao nhiu ln, hay nh u t phi b ra bao nhiu ng vn c
c 1 ng thu nhp.
- Nu P/E cao iu c ngha l ngi u t d kin cng ty t tc
tng trng cao trong tng lai. Thng thng c phiu c nh
gi tt khi t l P/E nm trong khong gi tr 10 ln.
C tc trn thu nhp ( D/E )
D/E = C tc / Thu nhp ca mi c phiu
- H s ny o lng t l phn trm li
nhun rng tr cho c ng ph thng di
dng c tc. H s ny cng cao th c phiu
cng nhn c s quan tm ca cc nh
u t, bi l h s c tr mc c tc cao
cho mi c phiu nm gi.
C tc trn th gi ( D/P )
D/E = C tc / Gi th trng hin thi
- H s ny phn nh mc li tc mong i
ca nh u t khi mua mt loi c phiu ti
thi im hin ti. Nu t l ny cng cao th
c phiu cng c cc nh u t a
thch v h k vng vo li nhun cao thu v
khi u t vo c phiu.
Gi tr s sch ca
c phiu ph thng
Gi tr s sch = (Tng ti sn Tng s n -
C phiu u i) / S c phiu ph thng
Ch tiu ny c dng xc nh gi tr
ca mt c phiu theo s liu trn s sch,
mt nh u t thng quan tm n ch
tiu ny so snh vi gi tr th trng ca
c phiu.
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Trnh t phn tch (top down)
Phn Phn t tch n ch nn kinh t n kinh t
Phn Phn t tch cng ty ch cng ty
Th gi Th gi
Phn Phn t tch ch ng ngnh nh
Phn tch nn kinh t
GDP
Lm pht
Tht nghip
BOP
T gi
Phn tch ngnh
H s co dn ca cu theo gi
H s co dn ca cu theo thu nhp
Nhu cu ti thiu
Chu k sn phm

Phn tch cng ty
C cu ch s hu
Thnh vin qun l
Ti chnh cng ty
Phn tch th gi
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H thng cc bo co ti chnh
Phn tch Ti chnh
Ti sn Ti sn Ngun vn Ngun vn
Ti sn ngn hn (Current Ti sn ngn hn (Current
Assets) Assets)
409 409 N phi tr (Liabilities) N phi tr (Liabilities) 321 321
-- N ngn hn (Current N ngn hn (Current
Liabilities) Liabilities)
253 253
-- N di hn (Long N di hn (Long--term Debt) term Debt) 68 68
Ti sn di hn (Fixed Ti sn di hn (Fixed
Assets) Assets)
425 425
Vn ch s hu (Owners Vn ch s hu (Owners
Equity) Equity)
513 513
Tng ti sn Tng ti sn 834 834 Tng ngun vn Tng ngun vn 834 834
Tng ti sn = Tng ngun vn Tng ti sn = Tng ngun vn
Bng cn i k ton (REE)
Bng cn i k ton REE Bng cn i k ton REE
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BCKQHKD l bng tng hp v BCKQHKD l bng tng hp v
tnh hnh tnh hnh doanh thu doanh thu, , chi ph chi ph v v
kt qu kinh doanh kt qu kinh doanh trong mt trong mt
thi k c th ca doanh nghip. thi k c th ca doanh nghip.
Bo co kt qu hot ng kinh
doanh (Income Statement)
Bo Co Kt qu HKD REE
Li nhun # dng tin thc vo doanh Li nhun # dng tin thc vo doanh
nghip. nghip. 3 3 l do: l do:
Chi ph Chi ph o o (Noncash Items). V d: chi (Noncash Items). V d: chi
ph khu hao ph khu hao
Nguyn tc doanh thu thc hin Nguyn tc doanh thu thc hin
(realization principle) (realization principle)
Nguyn tc ph hp chi ph vi doanh thu Nguyn tc ph hp chi ph vi doanh thu
(matching principle) (matching principle)
Bo Co lu chuyn tin t REE
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Nhm cc t s thanh khon (Liquidity Nhm cc t s thanh khon (Liquidity
Ratios) Ratios)
Nhm cc t s n (Leverage ratios) Nhm cc t s n (Leverage ratios)
Nhm cc t s hot ng (Efficiency ratios) Nhm cc t s hot ng (Efficiency ratios)
Nhm cc t s kh nng sinh li Nhm cc t s kh nng sinh li
(Profitability ratios) (Profitability ratios)
Nhm cc t s gi tr th trng (Market Nhm cc t s gi tr th trng (Market
value ratios) value ratios)
Cc nhm t s ti chnh ch yu
T s kh nng thanh ton hin ti T s kh nng thanh ton hin ti
(Current ratio (Current ratio -- Rc) Rc)
Rc = Rc =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh ( Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005 2005))
Rc = = Rc = = 11,,61 61
409 409..000 000..682 682
253.266.985 253.266.985
Cc khon n ngn hn Cc khon n ngn hn
Ti sn lu ng Ti sn lu ng
Cc t s thanh khon
T s kh nng thanh ton nhanh T s kh nng thanh ton nhanh
(Quick ratio (Quick ratio -- Rq) Rq)
Rq = Rq =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh ( Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005 2005))
Rq = = Rq = =
11,,10 10
T s kh nng thanh ton nhanh T s kh nng thanh ton nhanh
(Quick ratio (Quick ratio -- Rq) Rq)
Rq = Rq =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh ( Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005 2005))
Rq = = Rq = =
11,,10 10
Ti sn lu ng Ti sn lu ng Hng tn kho Hng tn kho
Cc khon n ngn hn Cc khon n ngn hn
409.000.682 409.000.682 129.235.531
253.266.985 253.266.985
Cc t s thanh khon
T s kh nng thanh ton tin mt
(Cash ratio - CR)
CR =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005)
CR = = 0,67
T s kh nng thanh ton tin mt
(Cash ratio - CR)
CR =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005)
CR = = 0,67
Tin mt Tin mt
Cc khon n ngn hn Cc khon n ngn hn
170.555.530
253.266.985 253.266.985
Cc t s thanh khon
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T s n (Debt ratio T s n (Debt ratio -- DR) DR)
DR = DR =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005) Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005)
DR = = 0,39 DR = = 0,39
T s n (Debt ratio T s n (Debt ratio -- DR) DR)
DR = DR =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005) Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005)
DR = = 0,39 DR = = 0,39
Tng ti sn Tng ti sn
Tng n Tng n
833.702.724
321.067.012
TB TB
VN VN
: : 00,,54 54
Cc t s n
T s n di hn (Long T s n di hn (Long--term debt term debt
ratio ratio -- LDR) LDR)
LDR = LDR =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005) Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005)
LDR = = 0,08 LDR = = 0,08
T s n di hn (Long T s n di hn (Long--term debt term debt
ratio ratio -- LDR) LDR)
LDR = LDR =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005) Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005)
LDR = = 0,08 LDR = = 0,08
Tng ti sn Tng ti sn
N di hn N di hn
833.702.724
67.800.027
Cc t s n
T s n di hn / vn ch s hu T s n di hn / vn ch s hu
(Long (Long--term debt / total equity ratio term debt / total equity ratio LD/E) LD/E)
LD/E = LD/E =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005) Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005)
LD/E = = 0,13 LD/E = = 0,13
T s n di hn / vn ch s hu T s n di hn / vn ch s hu
(Long (Long--term debt / total equity ratio term debt / total equity ratio LD/E) LD/E)
LD/E = LD/E =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005) Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005)
LD/E = = 0,13 LD/E = = 0,13
512.064.777
67.800.027
Vn ch s hu Vn ch s hu
N di hn N di hn
Cc t s n
T s hiu qu s dng ton b ti sn T s hiu qu s dng ton b ti sn
(Total assets turnover ratio (Total assets turnover ratio -- TAT) TAT)
TAT = TAT =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh ( Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005 2005))
TAT = = TAT = = 00,,46 46
T s hiu qu s dng ton b ti sn T s hiu qu s dng ton b ti sn
(Total assets turnover ratio (Total assets turnover ratio -- TAT) TAT)
TAT = TAT =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh ( Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005 2005))
TAT = = TAT = = 00,,46 46
Tng ti sn Tng ti sn
Doanh thu thun Doanh thu thun
TB TB
VN VN
: 1,77 : 1,77
833.702.724
387.356.933
Cc t s hot ng
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T s hiu qu s dng ti sn c nh T s hiu qu s dng ti sn c nh
(Fixed assets turnover ratio (Fixed assets turnover ratio -- FAT) FAT)
FAT = FAT =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh ( Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005 2005))
FAT = = FAT = = 11,,82 82
T s hiu qu s dng ti sn c nh T s hiu qu s dng ti sn c nh
(Fixed assets turnover ratio (Fixed assets turnover ratio -- FAT) FAT)
FAT = FAT =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh ( Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005 2005))
FAT = = FAT = = 11,,82 82
Ti sn c nh Ti sn c nh
Doanh thu thun Doanh thu thun
212 212..997 997..317 317
387.356.933
Cc t s hot ng
K thu tin bnh qun (Average K thu tin bnh qun (Average
collection period collection period -- ACP) ACP)
ACP = ACP =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh ( Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005 2005))
ACP = = ACP = = 96 96,,07 07
(ngy) (ngy)
K thu tin bnh qun (Average K thu tin bnh qun (Average
collection period collection period -- ACP) ACP)
ACP = ACP =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh ( Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005 2005))
ACP = = ACP = = 96 96,,07 07
(ngy) (ngy)
Cc khon phi thu Cc khon phi thu
Doanh thu bnh qun mt Doanh thu bnh qun mt
ngy ngy
101.957.258
387.356.933/365 /365
Cc t s hot ng
T s vng quay hng tn kho T s vng quay hng tn kho
(Inventory turnover ratio (Inventory turnover ratio -- IT) IT)
IT = IT =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005) Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005)
IT = = 1,89 IT = = 1,89
T s vng quay hng tn kho T s vng quay hng tn kho
(Inventory turnover ratio (Inventory turnover ratio -- IT) IT)
IT = IT =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005) Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005)
IT = = 1,89 IT = = 1,89
Hng tn kho Hng tn kho
Gi vn hng bn Gi vn hng bn
129.235.531
244.395.882
Cc t s hot ng
T s li nhun trn doanh thu (Profit T s li nhun trn doanh thu (Profit
margin margin -- PM) PM)
PM = PM =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005) Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005)
PM = PM =
=0,19 =0,19
T s li nhun trn doanh thu (Profit T s li nhun trn doanh thu (Profit
margin margin -- PM) PM)
PM = PM =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005) Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh (2005)
PM = PM =
=0,19 =0,19 387.356.933
67.848.835 + + 7.552.690
Doanh thu thun Doanh thu thun
Li nhun thun + chi ph li Li nhun thun + chi ph li
vay vay
Cc t s kh nng sinh li
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T s li nhun trn tng ti sn T s li nhun trn tng ti sn
(Return on assets (Return on assets -- ROA) ROA)
ROA = ROA =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh
((2005 2005))
ROA = ROA =
= = 00,,09 09
T s li nhun trn tng ti sn T s li nhun trn tng ti sn
(Return on assets (Return on assets -- ROA) ROA)
ROA = ROA =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh
((2005 2005))
ROA = ROA =
= = 00,,09 09
Li nhun thun + chi ph li Li nhun thun + chi ph li
vay vay
Tng ti sn Tng ti sn
67.848.835 + + 7.552.690
833.702.724
Cc t s kh nng sinh li
T s li nhun thun trn vn ch T s li nhun thun trn vn ch
s hu (Return on equity s hu (Return on equity -- ROE) ROE)
ROE = ROE =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh
(2004) (2004)
ROE = = 0,13 ROE = = 0,13
T s li nhun thun trn vn ch T s li nhun thun trn vn ch
s hu (Return on equity s hu (Return on equity -- ROE) ROE)
ROE = ROE =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh
(2004) (2004)
ROE = = 0,13 ROE = = 0,13
Li nhun thun Li nhun thun
Vn ch s hu Vn ch s hu
67.848.835
512.064.777
TB TB
VN VN
: 0,18 : 0,18
Cc t s kh nng sinh li
T s gi trn thu nhp (Price T s gi trn thu nhp (Price--
earnings ratio earnings ratio P/E) P/E)
P/E = P/E =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh
((2004 2004))
P/E = P/E =
= = 10 10,,67 67
T s gi trn thu nhp (Price T s gi trn thu nhp (Price--
earnings ratio earnings ratio P/E) P/E)
P/E = P/E =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh
((2004 2004))
P/E = P/E =
= = 10 10,,67 67
Gi c phiu Gi c phiu
Li nhun thun trn c phiu Li nhun thun trn c phiu
26,7 26,7
56.263.646/22.500.000 56.263.646/22.500.000
Cc t s gi tr th trng
T s gi trn gi tr s sch T s gi trn gi tr s sch
(Market (Market--to to--book ratio book ratio P/B) P/B)
P/B = P/B =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh
(2004) (2004)
P/B = P/B =
= 1,94 = 1,94
T s gi trn gi tr s sch T s gi trn gi tr s sch
(Market (Market--to to--book ratio book ratio P/B) P/B)
P/B = P/B =
Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh Trng hp Cty CP c in lnh
(2004) (2004)
P/B = P/B =
= 1,94 = 1,94
Gi c phiu Gi c phiu
Gi tr s sch trn c phiu Gi tr s sch trn c phiu
26,7 26,7
309.839.552/22.500.000 309.839.552/22.500.000
Cc t s gi tr th trng
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Phn tch cc t s ti chnh - Cty REE Nm Nm Nm
2002 2003 2004 KHA BBT GIL Bnh qun
Cc t s thanh khon
T s thanh ton hin ti 1,67 1,77 1,63 1,15 1,70 1,23 1,36
T s thanh ton nhanh 0,80 1,16 1,00 0,34 0,72 0,79 0,62
T s thanh ton tin mt 0,21 0,15 0,19 0,06 0,13 0,10 0,10
Cc t s n
T s n 0,41 0,40 0,40 0,82 0,34 0,52 0,56
T s n di hn 0,15 0,18 0,16 0,11 0,21 0,00 0,11
T s n di hn/Vn ch s hu 0,26 0,30 0,27 0,62 0,32 0,00 0,31
Cc t s hot ng
T s s dng ton b ti sn 0,89 0,78 0,70 0,76 0,50 3,01 1,42
T s s dng ti sn c nh 7,34 1,57 1,64 5,32 0,82 33,96 13,37
K thu tin bnh qun 58,25 88,90 95,08 94,58 48,96 43,49 62,34
T s vng quay hng tn kho 3,26 4,05 3,02 1,19 3,25 11,63 5,36
Cc t s kh nng sinh li
T s li nhun trn doanh thu 0,09 0,13 0,19 0,06 -0,04 0,06 0,03
T s li nhun trn tng ti sn 0,08 0,10 0,13 0,05 -0,02 0,18 0,07
T s li nhun thun trn vn ch s hu 0,12 0,13 0,18 0,19 -0,03 0,37 0,18
Benchmark 2004
Phng php phn tch Du
Pont
ROE = ROE =
Li nhun thun Li nhun thun
Vn ch s hu Vn ch s hu
ROE ROE
==
Li nhun Li nhun
thun thun
xx
Tng ti Tng ti
sn sn
xx
Doanh thu Doanh thu
thun thun
xx
Li nhun thun+Chi ph li Li nhun thun+Chi ph li
vay vay
Vn ch s Vn ch s
hu hu
Tng ti Tng ti
sn sn
Doanh thu Doanh thu
thun thun
Li nhun thun+Chi ph li Li nhun thun+Chi ph li
vay vay
ROE ROE
==
Tng ti sn Tng ti sn
xx
Doanh thu Doanh thu
thun thun
xx
Li nhun thun+Chi ph li Li nhun thun+Chi ph li
vay vay
xx
Vn ch s Vn ch s
hu hu
Tng ti sn Tng ti sn Doanh thu thun Doanh thu thun
xx
Li nhun thun Li nhun thun
Li nhun thun+Chi ph li vay Li nhun thun+Chi ph li vay
T s n T s n
T s hiu qu T s hiu qu
s dng ti sn s dng ti sn
T s li nhun T s li nhun
trn doanh thu trn doanh thu
Phng php phn tch Du Pont Phng php phn tch Du Pont
Phn tch Du Pont - Cty REE
Nm 2002 2003 2004 Benchmark 2004
Li nhun thun / Vn ch s hu (ROE) 0,13 0,14 0,18 0,18
1/ Tng ti sn / Vn ch s hu (Phn nh t trng n) 1,71 1,67 1,68 3,06
2/ Doanh thu thun / Tng ti sn (Hiu qu s dng ti sn) 0,89 0,78 0,70 1,42
3/ (Li nhun thun + Chi ph li vay)/ Doanh thu thun 0,09 0,13 0,19 0,03
4/ Li nhun thun / (Li nhun thun + Chi ph li vay) 0,98 0,82 0,82 0,91
5/ (1)*(4) 1,67 1,37 1,39 2,58
6/ (Li nhun thun + Chi ph li vay) / Tng ti sn (ROA) 0,08 0,10 0,13 0,07
P/E 16,34 7,61 10,67 7,04
P/B 2,07 1,04 1,94 1,48
C THNG TIN BN CO BCH
BN CO BCH C CNG B
TRONG CC TRNG HP
1. Nim yt chng khon hoc ti nim yt
chng khon ti S giao dch CK hay
TTGDCK.
2. Pht hnh chng khon.
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Bn co bch Ni dung chnh bn co bch
Thng tin v chng khon.
Loi chng khon.
Mnh gi, gi nim yt v gi pht hnh.
Tng s CK pht hnh, nim yt hoc nim yt li.
Thng tin v cc i tc lin quan n vic
nim yt, pht hnh.
T chc nim yt, pht hnh.
T chc t vn.
T chc kim ton.
Ni dung chnh bn co bch
(tt)
Ni dung chnh bn co bch
(tt)
c im cng ty.
C cu t chc v b my qun l.
Danh sch c ng ln.
Cc cng ty m v cng ty con lin quan.
Tnh hnh kinh doanh v tnh hnh ti chnh.
Hot ng kinh doanh & Kt qu HKD trong hai
nm gn nht.
Tnh hnh ti chnh.
K hoch kinh doanh, u t.
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Ni dung chnh bn co bch
(tt)
c im cng ty.
nh gi c cu ch s hu.
nh gi hot ng ca nhng b phn lin quan
cng nh trnh qun l ca cng ty.
Tnh hnh kinh doanh v tnh hnh ti chnh.
nh gi s n nh v ti chnh ca cng ty.
Tin hnh phn tch c bn (phn tch ti chnh).
Xc nh gi tr s sch ca C phiu.
D tnh kh nng sinh li ca cng ty trong
tng lai -> nh hng n Thu nhp ca C
phiu-> Gi bn li.
Kt qu KD & Ngun vn
KQKD t chc pht hnh & Cng ty con
Doanh thu & Li nhun PNC
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Ni dung chnh bn co bch
Thng tin v chng khon nim yt,
pht hnh.
Loi CK.
Gi nim yt l gi c s tin hnh
giao dch trong nhng phin u tin.
Thng tin v cc i tc lin quan n
vic nim yt, pht hnh.
Tnh chnh xc v trung thc ca cc
thng tin trn bn co bch.
Uy tn v s hp dn ca CK nim yt,
PNC
Ch tiu ti chnh PNC
Phn tch k thut l s ghi chp theo biu , th
cc giao dch ca mt hay mt nhm c phiu trong
qu kh d bo xu th, trin vng trong tng lai.
PTKTl bao gm vic kim tra d liu ca th trng
trong qu kh (gi c, KLGD), lm c s d on
gi chng khon trong tng lai t quyt nh mua,
bn chng khon.
=> th ca cc ch tiu thng k: Gi, ch s gi, khi
lng giao dch....
=> th theo thi gian : Ngy, tun, thng, nm ...
Phn tch k thut l g ?
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91
Nguyn tc 1: Th gi cc loi chng
khon c quyt nh bi s tng tc
bi cung v cu
Nguyn tc 2: Mc cung v cu
c chi phi bi nhng yu t hp l
v bt hp l.
Nguyn tc 3: Bt chp nhng di
ng nh trn th trng, gi c c xu
hng duy tr, dao ng nh trong thi
gian chp nhn c -> thi k gi ln
hoc gi xung.
C s ca PT k thut
Nguyn tc 4: Cc xu hng bin i gi
do cung v cu quyt nh
Nguyn tc 5: Cc dch chuyn cung v
cu c th c quan st qua biu
Nguyn tc 6: Cc dng thc biu c
th lp i lp li
C s ca PT k thut
- Ti liu u vo d kim hn, chnh xc hn,
khng ph thuc vo bo co ti chnh
- Nh phn tch c th khng bit g doanh
nghip nim yt, khng c thng tin g c
phiu nim yt, ngnh ngh... M vn tin
hnh phn tch c.
- Kh nng x l nhanh, chnh xc hn
- Kh nng xc nh thi im mua, bn
Li th ca phn tch k thut
- Php ghi chp thng k cho thy nhiu khi gi khng
bin ng theo xu th.
- Din bin gi trong qu kh c th khng lp li
trong tng lai
- T php d on v gi ca PTKT l nguyn nhn
to ra s thay i xu hng.
- Nu nhiu ngi u t tp trung vo 1 quy tc:
- V d: gi + khi lng giao dch tng
- => ph v xu th k vng, d on trc
- i hi phi c ti liu giao dch di c th
nm bt quy lut xu hng
Mt s thch thc ca PT.K
thut
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So snh phn tch c bn v
k thut
Phn tch k thut Phn tch c bn
Tm hiu ng thi/hnh vi ca th
trng.
Tm hiu cc nh hng/kt qu.
Linh hot v c th ng dng tt
c cc th trng vi cc iu kin
kinh doanh, thi gian khc nhau.
Nghin cu cc yu t tc
ng ti gi tr ni ti/thc
ca c phiu.
Tm hiu cc nhn t tc
ng/cc nguyn nhn gy
ra s dch chuyn.
Thng tp trung vo
nhm cc yu t tc ng
khng linh hot.
Cc ch tiu nh gi xu hng
th trng
Cc ch tiu nh gi xu hng
th trng
Cc ch tiu nh gi xu hng
th trng
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93
- Gi tng v ng thi khi lng tng: Hin
tng tip tc tng gi. Gi tng v khi lng
gim: Cha r tng lai
- Gi gim v ng thi tng khi lng: Hin
tng tip tc gim gi. Gi gim v khi lng
gim: Cha r tng lai c gim na khng.
- Ch bo tng quan khi lng GD tng gi-
Khi lng GD gim l ch bo quan trng
d bo th trng: Tng th tng gi; gim th
gim gi
D bo gi km theo khi
lng ng trung bnh ng (MA)
Tnh trung bnh gi ng ca trong khong
thi gian gn y nht (5ngy, 10 ngy, 20
ngy)
Mc ch: Lm nhn s liu d pht hin
xu th.
Lm c s hnh thnh cc ch bo khc.
y l ch s tr (lagging) hay theo xu th
(trend following) Ch dng khi xu th r
rng.
C 7 loi MA
MA gin n- SMA (Simple Moving Average)
MA hm m- EMA (Exponential Moving
Average)
MA chui thi gian- TSMA (Time Series Moving
Average)
MA tam gic- TMA (Triangular Moving
Average)
MA bin thin- VMA (Variable Moving Average)
MA c iu chnh khi lng- AMA (Volume-
adjusted Moving Average)
MA t trng- WMA (Weight Moving Average)
Trung bnh trt Moving Average (MA)
ngha ca ng trung bnh trt:
Nu th gi pha trn ng MA & MA
chuyn ng i ln th th trng trng thi gi
ln
Nu th gi pha di ng MA & MA
chuyn ng i xung th th trng thng thi
i xung.
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Cch tnh
Trung bnh ng gin n (SMA).
Trung bnh ng s m (EMA).
EMA(hin ti) = ( (Gi hin ti) -
EMA(trc )) x S nhn) +
EMA(trc )
S nhn = 2/(1 + N), N = thi gian tnh
ton.
S khc nhau ca cc loi MA
Tu thuc t trng gn cho d liu hin ti:
SMA: t trng cho cc mc gi l bng nhau.
EMA, WMA: t trng cho cc mc gi gn
hin nay cao hn.
TMA: t trong cao cho cc mc gi gia
thi k
VMA: t trng thay i theo tng bin ng
gi
* Thi gian tnh trung bnh trt
Thi gian u t Thi gian u t S ngy S ngy
Rt ngn hn 5-10 ngy
Ngn hn 11-25 ngy
Trung bnh 25-100 ngy
Di hn 100-200 ngy
Trung bnh trt Moving Average (MA)
tr ca EMA v SMA
EMA cho tr t hn so vi SMA
Trung bnh trt Moving
Average (MA)
13/2/07 VNI 1170,67
SMA5 gim
ct SMA20
=>BN
SMA5 tng
ct SMA20
=>MUA
SMA5 gim
ct SMA20
=>BN
(16/3/07)
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Kt hp 2 ng MA
MA ngn hn hu dng khi xu hng th trng o
chiu lin tc.
MA di hn tt hn trong th trng c xu hng vng.
Kt hp hai ng MA
Tn hiu mua: MA ngn hn ct ln trn ng MA di
hn
Tn hiu bn: MA ngn hn ct xung di ng MA
di hn
u im: t tn hiu sai
Nhc im: tng thm tr v thi gian
TRNG I HC KINH T KHOA TI CHNH NGN HNG
ng dng SMA
Khi v ng SMA, nu ng thay i
gi cao hn ng trung bnh gi, nh
u t s k vng gi ln v ngc li.
Thch hp vi ngi t mo him hn
TRNG I HC KINH T KHOA TI CHNH NGN HNG
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ng dng EMA
Thch hp vi ngi a mo him hn
Nu ng thay i gi cao hn ng
trung bnh gi, nh u t s k vng
gi ln v ngc li.
TRNG I HC KINH T KHOA TI CHNH NGN HNG
Chun MACD
Chun MACD Moving Average Convergence
Divergence l ng c kt hp ca hai
ng trung bnh ca 12 phin vi trung bnh
26 phin hoc 9 phin vi 12 phin hay 26
phin.
Chun MACD th hin lch k vng gn y
so vi trc kia. MACD dng th trng k
vng gi ln v m th ngc li
ngha ca MACD
Nhn nh xu th th trng
Cc gi lin tip cao nht hoc thp nht ca th
trng tng ng vi cc im cao nht hoc
thp nht ca MACD
S khc bit gia MACD v gi c th trng
c coi l du hiu cho s bin ng o
chiu ca chng khon
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Chun MACD
Tng => Gim
Gim => Tng
Kh d on
Tng => Gim
3
1
2
4
TRNG I HC KINH T KHOA TI CHNH NGN HNG TRNG I HC KINH T KHOA TI CHNH NGN HNG
ng vin bao quanh ng MA-
Envelope
Tnh bng phn trm c nh ln trn v
xung di so vi ng trung bnh.
V d: ng vin 3% cho MA 21 ngy
ng vin 5% cho MA 10 tun
ng vin 10% cho MA 40 tun
ng vin 3%, 5%
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Di Envelop
Di Envelop c pht trin t ng Moving.
ng Envelop bao gm 2 ng Moving.
ng Moving di l ng 20 ngy -10%.
Cn ng Moving trn bng ng Moving 20
ngy +10 % nht nh.
Du hiu mua bn:
Du hiu mua khi gi chm ng Moving di.
Du hiu bn khi gi chm ng Moving trn.
Gi chng khon c xu hng giao ng trong di
Envelop.
Di Envelop
Ch s sc mnh tng i -
RSI
Biu ch s RSI (Relative Strength Indicator)
Thng thng RSI tnh trong 14 ngy
RSI = 50: Th trng cn bng gia mua v bn (gi tng
BQ = Gi gim BQ)
RSI >= 70: Th trng mua qu mc => s gim
RSI <= 30: Th trng bn qu mc => s tng
Ch s sc mnh tng i -
RSI
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RSI Di bng Bollinger
Do John Bollinger xy dng.
y l ch s tr (lagging) hay theo xu th
(trend following).
Hiu qu khi th trng c xu th mnh.
Ch s bao gm 3 phn:
Trung bnh ng gin n (SMA).
Gii hn trn (upper band) = SMA + 2x{ lch
chun}.
Gii hn di (lower band) = SMA - 2x{ lch
chun}.
Bollinger gi s dng SMA 20. Vic s dng
thc t cn iu chnh.
Di bng Bollinger
lch chun: nhm o lng mc bin ng ca
gi (volatility) tng/gim gi mnh gii hn bin
s ln.
lch chun cho thy mc gi c phn tn xung
quanh gi tr trung bnh nh th no, v gi s dao
ng gia hai di bng ny
t trn hai lch chun pha trn v pha di
ng MA.
Mua qu nhiu (overbought): khi mc gi vt qu ln
trn khi chng ng n di bng trn
Bn qu mc (oversold): gi vt qu xung pha di
khi chng ng di bng di.
S dng di bng Bollinger
S dng di bng nh l mc tiu gi.
Gi bt ra khi di bng di v ct ln trn
ng MA 20 ngy th di bng trn tr thnh
mc tiu gi cao hn, v ngc li
Trong th trng tng gi mnh, mc gi
thng bin ng gia ng bin trn v
ng MA 20 ngy, nu c s ct xung di
ng MA bo hiu xu hng thnh gim gi
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rng ca di bng o lng s
bin ng gi
S m rng hoc thu hp di bng ty
thuc s bin ng ca ng trung bnh
29 ngy.
Thi k bin ng gi tng, khong cch
gia hai di bng m rng; v ngc li.
Khi 2 di bng xa nhau mt cch bt
thng, tn hiu xu hng hin ti sp kt
thc
TRNG I HC KINH T KHOA TI CHNH NGN HNG
Mc h tr- cn di (Support
Level)
Mc gi m ti xu th gim gi ca chng
khon dng li do c mt lng cu mua c phiu
ngn xu hng li.
Mc gi thp nht m c phiu t ti ti mt
thi im no trong lch s. Khi gi c phiu
gn t ti mc h tr, cc nh u t k vng gi
s tng tr li. Nu gi chng khon tip tc vt
qua cn di n s b xem nh rt tiu cc, kh c
th vc dy c.
Cch xc nh cn di: y l mc gi thp nht
thng xuyn c lp li gn y.
Mc khng c-
Cn trn (Resistance level)
Mc khng c l im m ti c mc
cung chng li xu hng, hay mc
cung b p cu qu ln.
Nu gi c phiu vt qua cn trn, n
c xem l c xu hng tch cc v ha
hn mt trin vng mi.
Cch xc nh cn trn: Cn trn l im
gi cao nht thng xuyn lp li gn y.
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Mc h tr v mc khng c
MC H TR
MC KHNG C
L thuyt th trng hiu qu
Th trng hiu qu l th trng trong gi c ca CK phn nh tc
thi tt c cc thng tin hin c
trn th trng.
Theo mc phn nh thng tin phn ra cc hnh thi ca th trng hiu
qu .
+ Hnh thi yu (Weak form):
Gi c ca CK phn nh y v kp thi nhng thng tin trong
qu kh v giao dch ca th trng nh khi lng giao dch, gi c
CK.
Cc nh phn tch s dng cc phng php phn tch phn tch
gi c qu kh ri d on cho gi tng lai.
+ Hnh thi trung bnh (Semi Strong form):
Gi c ca CK phn nh tt c nhng thng tin ngoi nhng thng
tin trong qu kh, m cn l nhng thng tin c bn ca Cty c
cng b ra cng chng.
+ Hnh thi mnh (Strong form):
Gi ca CP phn nh tt c nhng thng tin cn thit c lin quan
n Cty, thm ch c nhng thng tin ni gin. Do hnh thi ny c
lin quan n nhm cc nh u t c bit c thng tin ni gin.
L thuyt th trng hiu qu
Phn tch v la chn c phiu
Nn tm hiu v cng ty thng qua bn
co bch v bo co ti chnh.
Nm bt cc thng tin lin quan ti
cng ty (thng qua web, bo ch). Cc
thng tin ch mang tnh tham kho.
Tin hnh phn tch k thut.
Thc hnh ng dng v d bo.
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Cc yu t cn xem xt
Trin vng chung ca nn kinh t.
Lung tin vo TTCK: bao gm c u t gin tip
nc ngoi v tin trong nc: 74 qu u t nc
ngoi, khong 6 t USD; thm cc qu mi?
Tc tng trng li nhun, EPS ca cc cng ty? Kt
qu kinh doanh cui nm?
Room cho NT nc ngoi: M room?
Trin vng cc CP mi ln sn?
Chnh sch v m: kim sot lm pht? Gim thu, tng
d tr bt buc, nghip v th trng m, Ch th 03...
Tc ng ca TTCK th gii: FED ct gim li sut,
NHTW cc nc bm tin vo th trng ti chnh,
bng en tn dng ti Anh.
Cc yu t cn xem xt
Chu k ma v: Bao gi cho n thng 10?
Tc ng ca cc d bo, nhn nh ca cc t chc ti
chnh
IPO cc DNNN ln: VCB, BIDV
Vn quan h cung cu?
Tm l vng tin vo cc im h tr.
S lng ngi tham gia u t?
Cc Cng ty Chng khon tng vn?
Qun tr cng ty v bo v c ng thiu s.
Phn tch: Kh!; Nhn nh: D!
Tng ng lot?
im mnh ca phn tch k thut
C th p dng cho mi th trng.
Khng ph thuc nhiu vo bo co ti chnh.
Cho php nhanh chng pht hin ra xu th dch
chuyn gi sang mt mc gi cn bng mi.
C th c p dng i vi cc khong thi gian
khc nhau: gi, ngy, tun...cho n c th k.
Nguyn tc ca phn tch k thut d hiu v c
th c xy dng t cch thc vn hnh ca th
trng.
Cc nh phn tch k thut cho rng h c th xc
nh c thi im u t l tng.
im yu ca phn tch k thut
B ch trch v cho rng thng tin phn nh t t. Ngc li
vi nh phn tch theo l thuyt th trng hiu qu
(random walk).
Gi thuyt hnh vi con ngi lp li?
D on v gi lm cho xu hng gi t iu chnh.
Mang tnh ch quan cao.
Cch din gii hay phn tch c th rt khc nhau, ty quan
im ca ngi phn tch.
Vn b chm tr v n khi pht hin ra xu th th gi
chuyn ng mnh.
Ch mang tnh d bo xc sut, khng phi chc chn.
Mt s trng hp s dng cng thc ton hc phc tp.
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Kt lun
1. Phn tch k thut l ngh thut s dng
khoa hc thng k d on xu hng gi.
2. Khng cng c no lun lun ng => Cn
kt hp nhiu phng php.
3. S nhy cm ca ngi phn tch.
4. Lu hn ch ca PT k thut
TRUNG GIAN TI CHNH
Cu hi
Ti sao knh ti chnh trc tip li
khng th thc hin vic lu chuyn
vn hiu qu v cc trung gian ti chnh
bng cch no khc phc c
nhng hn ch ca knh ti chnh trc
tip?
Hai ro cn ch yu ca cc dng vn
trn th trng ti chnh l chi ph giao
dch v chi ph thng tin.
Chi ph giao dch (Transaction costs)
Phn ln cc khon vn nhn ri trong nn kinh
t tn ti di dng phn tn v nh l.
Nu nhng ngi tit kim trc tip u t vo th
trng ti chnh chi ph hoa hng cho cc nh mi
gii mua bn chng khon.
Nhng chi ph v thi gian v cng sc cho vic qun
l danh mc u t.
V pha nhng ngi i vay, khon chi ph cho
pht hnh chng khon khng phi l nh khin
cho vic huy ng nhng khon vn vay khng
ln lm trc tip t th trng tichnh s rt tn
km v khng hiu qu.
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Chi ph thng tin (Information costs)
Thng tin bt cn xng (asymmetric information) :khi
mt trong hai bn trong mt giao dch c t thng tin
hn bn kia v i tng ca giao dch, khin cho
vic ra quyt nh khng th chnh xc.
V d: trong quan h tndng, ngi i vay lun bit r hn
ngi cho vay v kh nng sinh li v nhng ri ro
S tn ti ca vn thng tin bt cn xng nguy
c la chn i nghch (adverse selection) v ri ro
o c(moral hazard)tnh hiu qu ca vic lu
chuyn vn trn th trng ti chnh.
Vai tr ca trung gian ti chnh
Gim bt chi ph giao dch
quy m hot ng ln v tnh chuyn nghip cao.
Chng hn trn th trng chng khon, chi ph
mua10,000 c phiu cng khng t hn chi ph mua
50 c phiu l bao.
c th a dng ho danh mc u t gim
thiu ri ro m khng lm tng chi ph nhiu
Tnh chuyn nghip qun l vn hiu qu,a
ra cc gii php gim chi ph giao dch nng
cao mc li nhun.
Vai tr ca trung gian ti chnh
Gim bt chi ph thng tin
Cc trung gian ti chnh chuyn hot ng
trong lnh vc ti chnh tin t nn h c
trang b y kin thc v kinh nghim
nn thu thp v x l thng tin hiu qu
hn, gip nh gi c chnh xc hn
mc ri ro ca cc d n xin vay, qua
gim thiu c nguy c chn la i
nghch.
Kim sot tt hn qu trnh s dng vn
Cc loi hnh trung gian ti
chnh
Cc t chc nhn tin gi
(Depository Institutions)
Ngn hng thng mi (Commercial
bank)
Cc hip hi tit kim v cho vay
(Savings and Loan Associations -
S&Ls)
Ngn hng tit kim (Savings bank)
Qu tn dng
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Cc loi hnh trung gian ti
chnh
Cc cng ty ti chnh (Finance
companies)
+ Cng ty ti chnh bn hng (Sale
finance company)
+ Cng ty ti chnh tiu dng
(Consumer finance company)
+ Cng ty ti chnh kinh doanh
(Business finance company)
Cc loi hnh trung gian ti
chnh
Cc t chc tit kim theo hp
ng (Contractual Savings
Instutions)
Cc cng ty bo him (Insurances
Companies)
Cc qu tr cp hu tr (Pension and
retirement
Cc loi hnh trung gian ti
chnh
Cc trung gian u t (Investment
intermediaries)
Ngn hng u t (Investment bank)
Cc cng ty u t mo him
(Venture Capital Firms)
Cc qu u t tng h (Mutual
funds)
Cc qu u t tng h th trng
tin t (Money market mutual funds)
Cc cng ty qun l ti sn (Asset
Management Firms)
Ngn hng thng mi
Huy ng vn : Tin gi thanh
ton(checkable deposits), tin gi tit kim
(saving deposits), tin gi c k hn (time
deposits).
Hot ng cho vay: cho vay thng mi
(commercial loans),cho vay tiu dng
(consumer loans), cho vay bt ng sn
(mortgage loans) v mua chng khon
chnh ph, tri phiu ca chnh quyn a
phng.
Cung cp cc dch v thanh ton qua ngn
hng v bun bn ngoi t.
Ngn hng thng mi l nhm trung gian ti
chnh ln nht.
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Nghip v ti sn N - Huy ng vn
Vn ca ngn hng
Vn t c
Vn iu l (Charter capital):s dng vo mc ch mua
sm ti sn, trang thit b ban u cn thit cho hot ng
ca ngn hng; gp vn lin doanh; cho cc thnh phn
kinh t vay v thc hin cc dch v khc ca ngn hng
Qu d tr: Qu d tr ca ngn hng c hnh thnh t
Qu d tr b sung vn iu l v qu d tr c bit
b p ri ro (Loan loss reserves). Cc qu ny c
trch t li nhun rng hng nm ca ngn hng.
.Vn coi nh t c :cc khon vn tm thi nhn ri
ca ngn hng, c phn b cho nhng mc ch
chi tiu nht nh nhng tm thi cha c s dng
v d: li nhun ch phn b, tin lng cha n hn
thanh ton hoc cc qu chuyn dng cha s dng n
nh qu pht trin k thut nghip v ngn hng, qu
khen thng, qu phc li, qu khu hao ti sn c nh
Nghip v ti sn N - Huy ng vn
Vn tin gi:quan trng nht trong s
vn thu ht t bn ngoi
Tin gi khng k hn (demand
deposit)- Tin gi thanh ton
Tin gi c k hn (Time deposit):V
nguyn tc, tin gi c k hn khng c
rt ra trc thi hn, song cnh tranh
li ko khch hng, cc ngn hng vn cho
php c rt.
Tin gi tit kim (Savings deposit)
Nghip v ti sn N - Huy ng vn
Vn i vay
Vay t NHTW: 2 hnh thc Chit khu hay ti chit khu
cc chng t c gi, Cho vay th chp hay ng trc
Vay ngn hn cc khon d tr ca cc t chc tn
dng khc: Mc ch chnh ca loi vay ny l nhm m
bo d tr bt buc theo qui nh ca NHTW.
Vay t cc cng ty: Vay ngn hn bng cc Hp ng
mua li, Vay t cng ty m
Vay t th trng ti chnh trong nc: thng qua pht
hnh cc chng t c gi
Vay nc ngoi: pht hnh phiu n vay tin nc
ngoi
Nghip v ti sn N - Huy ng vn
Cc ngun vn khc:
Vn ti tr, vn u t pht trin, vn u thc
u t cho vay theo cc chng trnh, d n
xy dng v.v...
Vn hnh thnh trong qu trnh hot ng ca
Ngn hng, v d nh trong nghip v qua li
ng nghip (tin gi ca cc ngn hng khc
nh thanh ton h),trong nghip v trung gian
ca ngn hng (tin gi ca khch hng m
bothanh ton trong phng thc thanh ton tn
dng chng t - L/C).
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Nghip v ti sn C S dng
vn
Nghip v ngn qu
Tin mt ti qu ca ngn hng (vault
cash)
Tin gi ti cc Ngn hng thng mi
khc
Tin gi ti Ngn hng Trung ng
Tin mt trong qu trnh thu
Ngoi tin mt, ngn hng cn gi cc
chng khon ngn hn, c tnh lng cao
c th chuyn thnh tin mt nhanh
chng khi cn nh tn phiu, thng phiu
Nghip v ti sn C S dng
vn
Nghip v cho vay
Cho vay ng trc: cp cho ngi i vay mt
khon tin vay nht nh s dng trc. Ngi
i vay ch phi tr li vo lc hon tr vn gc.
Cho vay thu chi: khch hng chi vt qu s tin
d trn ti khon vng lai trong mt hn
mc v thi hn nht nh trn c s hp ng tn
dng gia ngn hng vi khch hng.
Cho vay chit khu: Ngn hng thng mi mua
li cc thng phiu cha n hn tr tin vi gi
thp hn s tin ghi trn thng phiu.Khi n
hn tr tin th Ngn hng s i ton b s tin
ghi trn thng phiu ngitr tin thng
phiu.
Nghip v ti sn C S dng
vn
Tn dng u thc thu hay bao thanh ton
(Factoring): lcng ty factor - cng ty con ca
ngn hng - cam kt mua li cc khon thanh
ton cha ti hn pht sinh t nhng hot ng
xut khu, cung ng hng ho v dch v vi gi
chit khu.
Cho vay thu mua (Leasing)-tn dng thu mua,
thc hin thng qua vic cho thu ti sn nh
my mc, thit b,cc ng sn v bt ng sn
khc. Ngn hng s dng vn ca mnh mua
ti sn theo
yu cu ca ngi thu v nm gi quyn s hu
i vi ti sn cho thu.
Nghip v ti sn C S dng
vn
Cho vay bng ch k: l hnh thc tn dng trong
ngn hng khng trc tip cho khch hng vay
bng tin nhng bng uy tn (ch k) ca mnh,
ngn hng to iu kin khch hng s dng
vn vay ca ngi khc v m bo thanh ton
h khchhng.
Cho vay tiu dng: l hnh thc tn dng trong
ngn hng ti tr cho nhu cutiu dng ca c
nhn. Tn dng tiu dng thng di hnh thc
cho vay mua tr gp (tn dng tr gp) hoc
cho vay qua vic pht hnh th tn dng.
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Nghip v ti sn C S dng
vn
Nghip v u t: ngn hng thng mi dng
vn ca mnh mua cc chng khon (cc chng
khon chnh ph v mt s chng khon cng ty ln)
lut ca M khng cho php ngn hng c php nm gi
c phiu) hoc u t theo d n.
Vit nam, Lut cc T chc tn dng cn cho php cc
ngn hng c dng vn iul v qu d tr gp vn,
mua c phn ca doanh nghip hay ca cc t chc tn
dng khc.
Nhng ti sn c khc: l nhng vn hin vt
nh tr s lm vic, my mc, trang thit b dng
cho hot
ng do ngn hng s hu.
Nghip v trung gian
Nghip v chuyn tin Thanh ton h:Ngn hng nhn
s u thc ca khch hng, dng phng tin m khch hng
yu cu chuyn mt s tin nht nh cho mt ngi khc
mt a im quy nh trong hay ngoi nc. V mt k thut,
nghip v ny c thc hin thng qua cc phng tin lu
thng tn dng nh sc, th chuyn tin (M/T - mail transfer),
in
chuyn tin (T/T - telegraph transfer) v.v...
Nghip v thu h: Ngn hng nhn s u thc ca khch
hng thu h cc khon tin cn c vo cc chng t ca
khch hng giao nh sc, thng phiu, cc Chng khon.Khi
tin hnh nghip v ny, ngoi vic thu th tc ph ca khch
hng, ngn hng cn c th tranh th s dng s tin ca
khch hng.
Nghip v tn thc:Ngn hng thng mi nhn s u thc
ca khch hng, ng ra mua bn h khch hng cc loi
chng khon, kim loi qu, ngoi hi hoc qun l ti sn, vn
u t ca t chc hay c nhn theo hp ng (v d ti sn
ang tranh chp, ti sn thanh l trong qu trnh ph sn)
Cc hip hi tit kim v cho vay
(Savings and Loan Associations -
S&Ls)
Ngun vn ch yu l cc khon tin gi
thanh ton, tin gi tit kim v tin gi c
k hn.
Phn cn li (khong 20 - 30%) th vay t
cc ngun khc v vay ca chnh quyn a
phng hay trung ng.
Ch yu cho vay bt ng sn (ch yu l
nh ) vi thi hn di.
T nhng nm 80 tr i c php cung cp
cc ti khon thanh ton, cho vay tiu dng
v thc hin hng lot cc hot ng khc
m trc y ch gii hn cc ngn hng
thng mi.
Ngn hng tit kim (Savings bank)
Mc ch huy ng cc khon tin tit kim ca cc c nhn trong x hi.
Ch nhn ca cc ngn hng tit kim cng chnh l nhng ngi gi tin
tit kim. mi khi c thm khon tin tit kim mi, h li tip tc gi vo
ngn hng v khi cn c tin kinh doanh hoc tiu dng, h li i vay t
chnh ngn hng .
Ngn hng khng m rng thm c ng, do nhng ngi tham gia gi
tin tit kim sau ny s l khch hng ch khng phi l ch nhn. Hng
nm li tc ca ngn hng nu khng nhp vo ti sn ca ngn hng th
s c chia cho nhngngi gi tit kim v sng lp ra ngn hng.
Phng thc hot ng ca ngn hng tit kim mang tnh tng tr l ch
yu
Vn hot ng ch yu ca ngn hng tit kim l t tin gi tit kim ca
dn chng hoc l vn ng gp ca cc nh ho tm vi tnh cht h tr
ngi ngho l chnh hn l ng gp kim li.
Loi ngn hng ny khng pht hnh cc cng c n vay vn ca cng
chng v cng hu nh khng vay ca cc t chc nc ngoi hay NHTW,
tr trng hp c bit thiu tin mt.
Tiu chun hng u trong vn cho vay l s an ton.
i tng cho vay ch yu l cc khon vay cm c, th chp bng nh
ca, ti sn hoc chng khon.
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Qu tn dng
Hnh thc gp vn c phn v hot ng theo
nguyn tc tp th, t nguyn, hp tc v bnh ng.
Cc thnh vin ca qu mua cc th thnh vin
(tng t nh c phiu) c mnh gi bng nhau.
Cc thnh vin ca qu s c hng quyn vay
tin ca qu khi cn.
Khi cn thm vn, qu li pht hnh thm th thnh
vin v tip nhn thm nhng thnh vin mi.
Thng thng qu khng cho ngi ngoi vay tin.
Ngoi cho cc thnh vin vay, qu cng c th u
t vo chng khon.
Cc cng ty ti chnh (Finance
companies)
Huy ng vn thng qua pht hnh c
phiu, tri phiu, hay thng phiu.
Cung ng ch yu cc loi tn dng
trung hn v di hn
Ngoi ra, cc cng ty ti chnh cn thc
hin cc dch v cm, gi h v qun l
cc chng khon, cc kim loi qu .
Cu hi
im khc bit gia ngn hng thng
mi v cng ty ti chnh?
Cng ty ti chnh bn hng
(Sale finance company)
Gin tip cp tn dng cho ngi tiu dng
mua cc mn hng t mt nh bn l hoc t
mt nh sn xut no .
Tn dng c cp di hnh thc: cc doanh
nghip bn hng tr gp cho khch hng
theo hp ng mu do cng ty ti chnh loi
ny cung cp,sau hp ng c bn li
cho cng ty ti chnh.
Thng do cc cng ty sn xut hay cc nh
phn phi bn l (retailling or manufacturing
company) thnh lp nn nhm h tr cho
hot ng tiu th hng ho ca mnh.
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Cng ty ti chnh tiu dng
(Consumer finance company)
Cung ng phn ln ngun vn cho cc gia
nh v c nhn vay vo mc ch mua sm
hng ho tiu dng hoc sa cha nh ca.
cp th tn dng cho khch hng h mua
sm h thng ca hng bn l.
Hu ht cc khon cho vay u c tr gp
nh k.
Cng ty thng ch cho vay nhng khon tin
nh v vi li sut cao hn li sut th
trng.
Cng ty ti chnh kinh doanh
(Business finance company)
Cp tn dng cho cc doanh nghip di cc hnh
thc:
Bao thanh ton(Nghip v Factoring v Forfating): mua li
(chit khu) cc khon phi thu ca doanh nghip
Cho thu ti chnh (Nghip v Leasing): mua cc my mc
thit b m khch hng yu cu ri cho khch hng thu;
v.v...
Cc khon phi thu thng l tin bn tr chm hng
ho hay dch v.
Do cn tin ngay, cc doanh nghip k kt trc vi
cng ty ti chnh mt hp ng trong cng ty ti
chnh s mua li vi gi chit khu tt c cc khon
thu cha n hn thanh ton ca mnh pht sinh
trong mt khong thi gian nht nh.
Cc t chc tit kim theo hp ng
(Contractual Savings Instutions)
Thu nhn vn theo nh k trn c s
cc hp ng k kt vi khch hng.
Do s tin v thi gian phi thanh ton
c th d on c kh chnh xc nn
u t s vn thu nhn c vo cc
ti sn c tnh lng thp
Bao gm cc cng ty bo him (bo
him nhn th,bo him ti sn v tai
nn) v cc qu tr cp hu tr.
Cc trung gian u t
(Investment intermediaries)
Hot ng trong lnh vc u t
Chc nng ch yu ca cc t chc l
h tr cho cc ch th kinh t huy ng
vn ti tr cho cc d n u t ca
mnh cng nh gip cho cc nh u t
nh c th u t trc tip khon tin
nhn ri vo th trng vn.
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Ngn hng u t (Investment bank)
Gip cc doanh nghip, chnh ph huy
ng vn thng qua pht hnh chng khon,
h tr cho vic hp nht gia cc cng ty
hoc gip mt cng ty ny mua li mt cng
ty khc
H tr cho vic pht hnh chng khon
thng qua cc hot ng:
T vn cho cc cng ty nn pht hnh c phiu
hay tri phiu huy ng vn
Bo lnh t pht hnh chng khon (underwrite
the
securities), tc l cam kt s mua cc chng khon
vi mt mc gi xc nh, ri sau em bn ra th
trng th cp.
Cc cng ty u t mo him
(Venture Capital Firms)
H tr cho cc doanh nghip mi thnh lp
(startup firms): gip huy ng vn, cung cp
cc dch v t vn.
Cc cng ty u t mo him s rt vn vo
doanh nghip v gip ban gim c iu hnh
cng ty pht trin n mt mc nht nh, c
th pht hnh c phn trc tip ra th trng. Khi
cng ty u t mo him s bn s c phn
m mnh nm gi ra cng chng ri chuyn sang
mt d n u t mo him khc.
Cc qu u t tng h
(Mutual funds)
Thc hin vic huy ng vn t cc nh u
t c nhn thng qua pht hnh cc chng
ch gp vn u t u t vo chng
khon nhm tn dng nhng li th v vn
ln v kinh doanh chuyn nghip.
Nh vo u th vn u t ln, cc qu u
t tng h c th gim thiu chi ph giao
dch bng cch mua bn chng khon vi s
lng ln v hn ch ri ro bng cch a
dng ho danh mc cc chng khon nm
gi, t di s qun l ca cc chuyn gia
v kinh doanh chng khon.
Cc qu u t m
(open-end fund)
Lin tc pht hnh thm chng ch u t
mi
khi c ngi mun u t vo qu hoc hon
li vn cho cc chng ch c theo gi tr ti
sn rng ca chng (NAV Net asset value).
Gi tr ti sn rng ca mi chng ch u t
ca qu u t m bng tng gi tr th
trng ca cc chng khon m qu nm
gi chia cho tng s chng ch pht hnh
ca qu.
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Cc qu u t ng
Huy ng vn mt ln t cc nh u t trong ln
pht hnh chng ch u t ra cng chng lc thnh
lp.
Qu u t ng khng pht hnh thm chng ch
u t huy ng thm vn v cng khng chp
nhn hon vn cho cc chng ch ny.
Cc chng ch u t ca qu u t ng c mua
bn trn th trng nh cc c phiu thng.
Gi ca cc chng ch ca qu u t ng c th
cao hn hoc thp hn gi tr ti sn rng ca
chng, tu thuc vo cc yu t nh tnh lng ca
cc chng ch ny v trnh qun l qu.
Cc qu u t tng h th trng tin
t (Money market mutual funds)
i tng u t ca cc qu ny l cc cng
c ti chnh c cht lng cao trn th trng
tin t nh: Tn phiu kho bc, thng phiu
v cc chng ch tin gi ca ngn hng.
Do cc chng khon m qu u t nm gi
thng c thi hn t hn 6 thng v nhng
bin ng v gi tr th trng ca cc chng
khon ny kh nhnn cc qu u t ny
cho php cc chng ch u t c hon
vn vi gi c nh.
Cc cng ty qun l ti sn
(Asset Management Firms)
Hot ng ch yu ca cc cng ty ny
l qun l cc qu tin t tp trung nh
cc qu u t, qu hu tr hoc ti sn
ca cc c nhn, doanh nghip hay
chnh ph
CHNG 9:
CHNG KHON PHI SINH
15/08/2011
113
PHI SINH L G?
Ba yu t nhn bit: Ba yu t nhn bit:
PH PHII SINH SINH (DERIVATIVE) (DERIVATIVE) LL MT MT HP HP NG NG
HP HP NG NG NNYY THAM THAM CHIU CHIU N N MT MT TTII
SN SN (UNDERLYING (UNDERLYING ASSET) ASSET)
GI GI TR TR CA CA HP HP NG NG PH PH THUC THUC VVOO S S
THAY THAY I I GI GI CA CA TTII SN SN THAM THAM CHIU CHIU
Ti sn c s
Ti sn m gi ca cc cng c chng
khon phi sinh ph thuc vo c gi
l ti sn c s.
Ti sn c s c chia lm 4 loi
chnh: hng ho, c phiu ph thng v
cc ch s chng khon, cc loi chng
khon c thu nhp c nh, v ngoi t.
V d
A k vi B mt hp ng quyn chn mua 1000 c
phiu FPT vi mc gi 100,000/cp, o hn vo
ngy 14/2/2007. Trong hp ng ny, c phiu
FPT l mt ti sn c s
Nokia, cng ty ca Phn Lan, pht hnh
10,000 Samurai bond sang Nht, thu c 1t
Yen, sau tin hnh nghip v hon i i
lng Yen sang USD nhm phc v cho mt
d n u t nh ca h. Trong nghip v ny
ng Yen v USD chnh l cc ti sn c s.
Trn mt bn tin c ni rng gi du th giao
thng 12 trn th trng New York l $75/thng.
y du th chnh l ti sn c s ca mt hp
ng tng lai.
CCc c t c c tnh c bn: nh c bn:
NH TN GI => BT K SN PHM N NH TN GI => BT K SN PHM NO C O C CCC C
C T C TNH NH TRN U C GI L NH NH TRN U C GI L PH PHI I
SINH SINH
PH PHI SINH CC K A DNG, MIN L I SINH CC K A DNG, MIN L CC TTI I
SN THAM CHIU (T C PHIU, TR SN THAM CHIU (T C PHIU, TRI PHIU, I PHIU,
TIN T N THI TIT, CH TIN T N THI TIT, CHNH TR NH TR))
PH PHI SINH C I SINH C TTNH N BY CAO (LEVERAGE) NH N BY CAO (LEVERAGE)
=> PHC V PHNG NGA RI RO V => PHC V PHNG NGA RI RO V U C U C
PHI SINH L G?
15/08/2011
114
Ni dung
2. Hp ng k hn (Forward)
3. Hp ng tng lai (Futures)
4. Hp ng quyn chn (Options)
1. Quyn mua v Chng quyn
Quyn mua c phn (Rights)
Khi nim
L quyn ca cc c ng hin thi c u
tin mua trc c phiu mi pht hnh
vi gi xc nh v trong thi hn nht nh
c im
Lng quyn mua tng ng vi t l c phiu
nm gi
Thi hn ngn (4-6 tun)
Gi trn quyn mua thp hn gi th trng
Ri ro gi c
phiu gim
Khuyn khch c
ng hin thi
Quyn mua c phn (Rights)
Cng Cng ty ty XYZ XYZ cc 100 100,,000 000 c c phiu phiu
hin hin ang ang lu lu hhnh, nh, cc gi gi bbnn ll 12 12
USD/ USD/ c c phiu phiu.. Cng Cng ty ty quyt quyt nh nh ph phtt
hhnh nh thm thm 25 25,,000 000 c c phiu phiu mi mi vv bbnn
vi vi gi gi ll 88USD/c USD/c phiu phiu.. Mt Mt c c ng ng
ca ca cng cng ty ty hin hin ang ang nm nm gi gi 1000 1000 c c
phiu phiu s s c c mua mua thm thm bao bao nhiu nhiu c c
phiu phiu mi mi vi vi gi gi u u i? i?
Tr li: Tr li: 1000 1000/( /(100 100,,000 000//25 25,,000 000)= )=250 250
Chng quyn (Warrants)
Khi nim
L chng khon mang li cho ngi s
hu quyn mua c phiu ph thng vi
s lng v gi c nht nh, trong thi
hn nht nh
Ni dung chng quyn:
S lng c phiu c mua
Gi mua c phiu
Thi hn hiu lc
15/08/2011
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Chng quyn (Warrants)
c im
1. Chng quyn thng c pht hnh km
c phiu u i v tri phiu cng ty
2. T l mua c phiu ph thng thng l
1:1
3. Thi hn di hn so vi quyn mua (5-10
nm)
4. Gi trong chng quyn thng cao hn gi
th trng 10%
Gi c nh
Gi tng ln nh k
Tng tnh
hp dn
Chng quyn (Warrants)
Gi tr chng quyn
Gi tr ni ti (Intrinsic value)
Gi tr thi gian (Time value)
Intrinsic value = Current stock price - Exercise price
Time value = Warrant Price - Intrinsic value
bit trn
th trng
Gim dn khi
chng quyn tin
dn n ht hn
Ri ro
gim dn
Chng quyn (Warrants)
ll VV d: d:
ll Chng Chng quyn quyn ca ca cng cng ty ty XYZ XYZ ang ang
c c bbnn trn trn th th trng trng vi vi gi gi ll
17 17..55$$,, cho cho ph phpp ngi ngi mua mua c c mua mua
mt mt c c phiu phiu XYZ XYZ vi vi gi gi ng ng k k ll
10 10$$ trong trong khi khi gi gi c c phiu phiu trn trn th th
trng trng ll 25 25$$..
ll TTnh nh gi gi tr tr ni ni ti ti vv gi gi tr tr thi thi gian gian
ca ca chng chng quyn? quyn?
Rights vs. Warrants
Ging nhau
1. Gi tr gm hai phn:
2. Gi c phiu trn cc quyn l c nh
hoc tng i c nh
3. Gi c quyn bin i theo gi c phiu
ph thng
4. u c th bn, thc hin hoc ht
hn
Gi tr thi gian (Time value)
Gi tr ni ti (Intrinsic value)
15/08/2011
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Rights vs. Warrants
Khc nhau
1. S lng quyn mua cn mua 1 c phiu
ph thng nhiu hn
2. i tng pht hnh
Quyn muac phiu ph thng
Chng quynC phiu u i, tri phiu cng ty
3. Thi hn quyn mua ngn hn
4. Gi thc hin:
Gi trn quyn mua < Gi c phiu trn th trng
Gi trn chng quyn > Gi c phiu trn th
trng
Loi chng khon no sau y c php
pht hnh km theo tri phiu hoc c
phiu u i, cho php ngi nm gi n
c quyn mua 1 khi lng c phiu
ph thng nht nh theo gi c xc
nh trc trong mt thi gian nht nh.
A. C phiu u i
B. Tri phiu
C. Quyn mua c phn
D. Chng quyn
E. Tt c u sai
Hp ng k hn (Forwards)
Khi nim
c im
Li ch ca hp ng k hn
V th trng (long position) v v th
on (short position)
Gi tr (payoff) ca hp ng k hn
Hp ng k hn (Forwards)
Khi nim
L tho thun mua hoc bn mt ti sn
mc gi xc nh ti mt thi im trong tng
lai
c im
Forwards c mua bn trn th trng OTC
Gia cc th ch ti chnh
Gia th ch ti chnh v c nhn, t chc khc
i lp vi hp ng giao ngay (Spot Contract )
15/08/2011
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Li ch ca Forwards
Kim li thng qua nghip v cbt (Arbitrage
strategy)
Phng nga ri ro
Lo s ri ro gi lnMua Forward
Lo s ri ro gi xung Bn Forward
V d:
Cng ty XYZ d nh thu c 1 triu USD theo hp
ng xut khu go. Tuy nhin t gi USD/VND c xu
hng gim v ng USD c nguy c mt gi.
Trong trng hp ny cng ty c th lm g trnh
ri ro t gi? Ti sao?
V th trng (long position) v
v th on (short position)
Giao dch Forward:
Ngi bn chng
khon c s
Ngi mua chng
khon c s
Thi im xc nh
trong tng lai
Gi xc nh
trong tng lai
V th trng
(Long position)
V th on (Short
position)
Gi tr ca hp ng k hn
Long position Short
position
S
T
-K K-S
T
S
T
: Gi hin thi ca
chng khon (Spot price)
K: Gi thc hin trong
hp ng
Hp ng tng lai (Futures)
Khi nim
L tha thun gia ngi mua v ngi
bn v mt hng ha c giao vo mt
thi hn trong tng lai v ti mt mc gi
nht nh
Tng t nh hp ng k hn
Cc hp ng tng lai ti chnh c bt u
giao dch t nhng nm 1970
15/08/2011
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c im Futures
c nim yt trn s giao dch (SGD)
Cc nh u t mua bn futures vi
SGD
SGD l trung gian, t ng tm i tc
mua bn
Futures c tiu chun ha
S lng
Cht lng
Thi hn giao hng v thi im thanh
ton
Theo thng,
khng phi ngy
gi c th
SGD quy
nh
SGD Futures trn th gii
Chicago Board of Options
S giao dch hp ng quyn chn ln nht th
gii
http://www.cboe.com
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
S giao dch hp ng tng lai
http://www.cme.com
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
S giao dch hp ng tng lai ln nht v lu
i nht th gii
http://www.cbot.com
c im Futures
Kim sot ri ro thanh ton
Trung tm thanh ton b tr (Clearing house)
lm trung gian
Tm i tc, khp lnh mua bn
m bo vic thc hin hp ng
Clearing house yu cu cc bn m ti khon
t cc (3-12% gi tr giao dch)
Cc khon l li t hp ng c Clearing
house iu chnh hng ngy trn ti khon
Tnh thanh khon futures cao hn forwards
Cc bn khng cn
bit n i tc
Thot khi hp ng tng lai
(Closing out positions)
a s futures khng xy ra giao hng
Tin hnh mt giao dch future ngc vi giao
dch future ban u
V th trng
(Long position)
V th on
(Short position)
T= 0 Mua future Bn future
T= 1 Bn future Mua future
Closing Position =0 Position =0
Cng thng
giao hng
Khc Forwards
15/08/2011
119
Mc ch s dng futures
Futures c s dng vi hai mc ch:
u c (Speculating)
T bo him (Hedging)
Dng futures u c
Tnh hung
Bn d on c phiu XYZ s tng
gi v quyt nh mua mt hp ng
tng lai thng 12 i vi XYZ.
Ngy Thng
giao
hng
Gi
XYZ
V th
(Position
)
Ti khon
Hoa
hng
Li
nhun
T=0 12 600 Long 30 10 50-10
T=1 12 650 Short 50+30-10
t cc
5%
Dng futures t bo him
V d:
Cng ty ABC d tnh s thu c 1 triu
USD t hp ng xut khu trong thng 5.
Cng ty ny d tnh nu USD/VND mc
16,000 th s c li. Hin ti trn th trng,
t gi mua USD futures thng 5 l 16,000.
Cng ty nn lm g?
Cng ty ABC s bn future, giao 1 triu
USD vo thng 5.
So snh Futures v Forwards
15/08/2011
120
1. Hp ng tng lai c th giao dch
thng qua OTC v s giao dch
2. Gi tr ca hp ng tng lai phn
nh gi tr ca ti sn c s tng
lai
3. Ch c ngi bn hp ng tng lai
mi t cc cho trung gian thanh ton
4. Nhng giao dch nh ca hp ng
tng lai mang li li nhun cho nh
u c
Quyn chn (Options)
Quyn chn mua-Call options
Mang li quyn mua c phiu c s vo
mt thi im nht nh vi mc gi nh
sn ( gi thc hin).
Mang li quyn, khng phi ngha v mua c
phiu
Ngi mua quyn chn s phi tr mt khon
ph cho ngi bn quyn chn
c im
Quyn chn tn ti cng c phiu c s
Trc ngy o hn, ngi c quyn chn
c th:
Gi quyn chn v theo di gi c phiu c s
Thc hin quyn chn
Bn quyn chn trn th trng
quyn chn ht hn
Ch khong 10%
hp ng quyn
chn nim yt c
thc hin
c im
Cc bn tham gia hp ng quyn chn
Ri ro bin
ng gi
Ngi mua
quyn chn
(Option buyer)
Ngi bn
quyn chn
(Option seller)
Ph quyn chn
(Premium )
V th trng
(Long option)
V th on
(Short option)
15/08/2011
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c im
Cc gi c lin quan n quyn chn
Gi c phiu c s (S
T
)
Bin i theo thi gian
Gi thc hin (Strike/Exercise price)
Mc gi ngi bn quyn chn buc phi thc
hin khi ngi mua yu cu
C nh trong sut thi hn ca quyn chn
Ph quyn chn (Premium)
Khon tin ngi mua quyn chn phi tr s
hu quyn chn
Bin i trong sut thi hn ca quyn chn
Phn loi quyn chn
Hp ng quyn chn kiu chu u
(European Options)
Ch c thc hin quyn vo ngy o
hn
Hp ng quyn chn kiu M
(American Option)
C th thc hin vo bt k ngy no
trong thi hn quyn chn (tnh c ngy
o hn)
Ph quyn chn cao hn so vi kiu Chu
Ri ro ln hn i
vi ngi bn
quyn chn
Bo gi quyn chn
Daily quote Call Put
Option Strike Exp Vol Last Vol Last
Amazon 40 Apr 184 7 517 1 5/8
46 7/8 45 Apr 425 4 821 3 5/8
46 7/8 50 Apr 342 2 287 5 3/8
46 7/8 50 Jul 179 8 627 11
Gi th trng
ca c phiu
c s
Ngy ht hn
(Expiry date)
Thc hin vo bt
k ngy no trong
thng
S lng hp ng quyn
chn mua trong ngy
Gi quyn
chn mua
Quyn chn mua (Call)
Khi nh u t d tnh gi c phiu A
s tng trong tng lai h s lm gi?
Mua c phiu A
Mua quyn chn mua c phiu A
Nu gi c phiu A tng cao hn gi thc hin
trong quyn chn Thc hin quyn mua,
sau bn c phiu A
Nu gi c phiu A gim (khc d tnh)
Khng thc hin quyn v mt ph quyn chn
(Premium)
15/08/2011
122
Gi tr ni ti ca quyn chn
mua
Cng thc:
Gi th ni ti
(Intrinsic Value)
Gi c phiu
c s
Gi thc
hin
i vi ngi
mua quyn chn
Positive
Gi tr ni ti ca quyn chn mua
L ($)
Li ($)
Gi thc hin, $40
Premiumpaid, $3
-$3
$7
$10
$50
imha vn
($43) = Gi thc
hin (40)+ Ph
quyn chn (3)
Gi tr ni ti
(Intrinsic Value)
$0
Gi c
phiu c s
Profit
P
a
y
o
f
f
Gi tr quyn chn call writer
i vi ngi bn quyn chn (Call
writer)
Ngc vi ngi mua quyn chn
Cng thc:
Negative
Gi tr quyn chn call
P
r
o
f
i
t
P
a
y
o
f
f
Call Premium
15/08/2011
123
Li nhun ca Call v Put
-20
100 90 80 70 60 0 10 20 30 40 50
-40
20
0
-60
40
60
Gi c phiu ($)
L

i

n
h
u

n

c

a

c
a
l
l

(
$
)
Bn call
Mua call
Gi thc hin = $50; gi call = $10
Quyn chn bn (Put option)
nh ngha:
Quyn chn bn (Put) mang li cho ngi
s hu quyn bn c phiu c s vi gi
nht nh, trong khong thi gian nht
nh
Khi gi c phiu thp hn gi thc hinNh
u t s mua c phiu c s trn th trng
v thc hin quyn bn c phiu
Khi gi c phiu cao hn gi thc hinKhng
thc hin quyn bn v mt ph quyn chn
Vd: Ti mua mt hp ng quyn chn bn 100
c phiu cng ty ABC vi gi 50 trong khi gi
hin ti ca c phiu ny l 55, v ti phi tr
ph hp ng l 5. Nu gi c phiu ABC gim
xung cn 40 trc khi o hn hp ng ti c
th mua vo 100 c phiu ABC vi gi 4000 v
thc thi quyn bn ca mnh vi ngi bn hp
ng ly 5000. Nh vy tng li nhun ca ti l
500 = (5000 - 4000 - 500).
Nu gi chng khon cho n ngy o hn hp
ng vn khng gim xung di strike price
(50) th ngi mua hp ng s t chi thc
hin quyn bn ca mnh Nh vy tt c nhng
g ngi mua hp ng mt l khon ph hp
ng 500=(5*100).
Gi tr ni ti ca Put Option
Cng thc:
Positive
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124
Gi tr ni ti ca Put Gi tr ni ti ca Put Option
i vi ngi bn put
Gi tr ni ti = 0 nu S
T
>X (Khng thc
hin)
Gi tr ni ti = X-S
T
nu S
T
X (Thc hin
putl)
Gi tr ni ti ca Put Option
Loss, $
Gain, $
Exercise price
Premiumincome
Break-even
point
Intrinsic
value of
put writer
$0
Price of the
underlying
stock, $
Intrinsic Profit
Li nhun ca Put Option
-20
100 90 80 70 60 0 10 20 30 40 50
-40
20
0
-60
40
60
Gi c phiu ($)
L

i


n
h
u

n


c

a


p
u
t
(
$
)
mua put
bn put
Gi thc hin = $50; gi hp ng quyn
chn = $10
10
-10
15/08/2011
125
Trc khi quyn chn bn c thc hin,
gi quyn chn (ph quyn chn) thay i
theo gi chng khon v theo thi gian.
Gi quyn chn phi phn nh c c
hi m hp ng ny em li li nhun
cho ngi mua.
Do , nu chng khon cng bin ng
mnh (volatile) v thi gian o hn cng
di th ph quyn chn cng cao.
Cc yu t nh hng n gi quyn
chn c phiu
1. Gi c phiu thi im hin ti;
2. Gi thc hin;
3. Khong thi gian t thi im hin
ti cho n khi o hn quyn;
4. bt n ca gi c phiu;
5. Li sut phi ri ro;
6. C tc k vng s thanh ton trong
khong thi gian quyn c hiu lc;
Gi c phiu v gi thc hin
Nu mt quyn chn mua c thc hin
mt thi im trong tng lai th khon li
nhun thu c s bng khong ln hn ca
gi c phiu so vi gi thc hin. Do nu
gi c phiu tng th gi ca quyn chn mua
s tng v nu gi thc hin tng th gi ca
quyn chn mua s gim. Vi mt quyn
chn bn, li nhun thu v nu quyn chn
c thc hin s bng khong ln hn ca
gi thc hin so vi gi c phiu. Nh th gi
quyn chn bn s tng nu nh gi thc
hin tng v gim nu nh gi c phiu tng.
Thi gian n lc o hn
Yu t ny c tc ng r rng hn n
quyn chn kiu M (c mua v bn),
nu nh thi gian cn li cho n lc
o hn cng di th gi ca quyn
chn s cng cao. Xt vi hai quyn
chn ging nhau v c yu t khc
ngoi tr thi gian cho n ngy o
hn. Ngi s hu quyn chn c thi
gian di hn r rng c nhiu thi gian
la chn thc hin quyn hn ngi
s hu quyn chn ngn hn
15/08/2011
126
bt n
bt n l mt thc o mc khng chc chn ca bn
thn nh u t vo bin ng trong tng lai ca gi c phiu.
bt n cng cao th kh nng gi c phiu c th ln rt cao
hoc xung rt thp cng tng cao. Ngi s hu c phiu c
th coi hai xu hng ny trit tiu ln nhau v khng qu lo
lng.
Ngi s hu quyn mua s c li nu nh gi c phiu tng
ln nhng h ch phi chu ri ro c gii hn nu gi gim, mc
l cao nht h phi chu chnh bng gi ca quyn mua. Vi
ngi s hu quyn bn, h s c li nu nh gi ca c phiu
gim mnh v h ch phi chu ri ro c gii hn nu gi tng,
l cao nht phi chu cng chnh l gi ca quyn mua. V l do
ny, gi ca quyn chn mua v quyn chn bn s tng cao
nu nh bt n ca c phiu tng.
Li sut phi ri ro
Khi li sut phi ri ro trong nn kinh t tng t l tng
trng k vng vi gi c phiu cng s c xu hng
tng. ng thi gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin m
nh u t k vng s nhn c trong tng lai s
gim. Hai tc ng ny u c xu hng lm gim
gi ca quyn chn bn.
Do gi quyn chn bn c xu th gim khi li sut
phi ri ro trn th trng tng. Vi quyn chn mua,
tc ng u tin c xu th lm tng gi quyn
nhng tc ng th hai li c xu th lm gim gi
quyn. Tuy nhin tc ng th nht lun ln t tc
ng th 2 do khi li sut phi ri ro tng th gi
quyn chn bn cng tng.
C tc
C tc lm cho gi c phiu gim xung
trong ngy giao dch khng hng
quyn. y l thng tin xu vi gi
ca quyn chn mua v l thng tin
tt vi gi ca quyn chn bn.
Nh th gi ca quyn chn mua c
tng quan ngc chiu v gi quyn
chn mua c tng quan cng chiu vi
nhng d bo v quy m tr c tc.
Xc nh li hoc l
1.Bn 1 quyn chn mua $40 ,ph:$6/c phiu. Gi th
trng tng n $44
2. Mua 1 quyn chn bn $35 vi ph $4.5/c phiu. Gi
th trng l $23
3.Bn quyn chn bn vi gi $35 vi ph $4.5. Gi th
trng l $52
4.Bn quyn chn bn cu 3 v mua c phiu vi gi
$36.Gi th trng tng ln $52
5. Bn quyn chn bn v mua c phiu nh cu 4.Gi
th trng cn li $28
6. Bn quyn chn mua cu 1 v mua quyn chn
bn cu 2
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127
MC
Mt quyn chn mua vi gi thc hin
$10 ang giao dch vi gi $0.72.Nu
c phiu ny ang c giao dch ti
$10.38 th quyn chn ny:
a. Khng c gi tr thi gian
b. Khng c gi tr ni ti
c. C li
d. B l
MC
Mt chin lc quyn chn ti u khi
gi c phiu d on gim s l:
a. Mua quyn chn bn
b. Mua quyn chn mua
c. Bn quyn chn bn
d. Khng lm g c
Cu hi ng/sai
1. Bn quyn chn bn s c li khi gi
ca ti sn c s gim
2. Quyn chn mua s c li khi gi ca
ti sn c s tng
3. Quyn chn di hn s c gi tr ni
ti ln hn
4. Bn quyn chn mua c th c s
dng chng li s gim gi c
phiu