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VOL. XVIII No. 32
Monday, June 22 – 28, 2009
Pages 18 Rs.12
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
Markets to remain volatile and range bound
By Sanjay R. Bhatia The markets witnessed a correction during the course of the week. Profit booking and selling pressure was witnessed amidst a volatile and choppy trend. Traders and speculators were seen unwinding their positions in mid cap and small cap stocks ahead of the Budget announcement early next month. Incidentally, FIIs remained net sellers in the cash and the derivatives segments. Mutual funds, on the other hand, remained net buyers during the week. The volumes recorded for the week have been lower over the previous week while the breadth of the market during the week was skewed in favour of declines. The global cues have remained mixed. The US economy continued to emanate mixed economic numbers. Crude oil prices continued to remain volatile and stayed above the $70 per barrel level and are set to test the $75-80 levels. Inflation rate continued its downward spiral and has slipped in the negative due to the base effect. The headline inflation rate, measured by the WPI, stood at -1.61% for the week ended 6 June this year as against 0.13% in the previous week. It was 11.66% in the corresponding week last year. The markets have finally witnessed a proper correction, which is healthy and augurs well for the markets. Now, it is important that the markets continue to correct and consolidate further. In the meanwhile, the markets would continue to take cues from the global markets, the crude prices, which are moving higher, and the progress of the monsoon which has so far been below normal and would affect the market sentiment if it fails to gather pace. The news flow on the Union Budget would also impact the market sentiment. The markets would remain volatile and choppy ahead of the derivatives segment expiry next week. The overall trend is likely to remain range bound with regular bouts of correction. Technically, the markets should continue to correct. On the upside, the Sensex faces resistance at the 15167, 15500 and 15700 levels but seeks support at the 14300, and 13056 levels. On the upside, the Nifty faces resistance at the 4323, 4530 and 4653 levels while 4245 and 4100 are its important support levels. Investors should continue to book profits at regular intervals.
Coming to terms
By Fakhri H. Sabuwala What happened on Golden Monday, 18 May 2009, was nothing but a sentimental response to the changed paradigm. In stock arithmetic, it is called expansion of profit to earning ratios due to a change in the market scenario. Fundamentally, nothing had changed that day except the perception of economic growth and wellbeing of the nation. Any time a favourable or unfavourable trigger is fired such P/E expansion or contraction occurs. The impact of this
A Time Communications Publication 1
expansion/contraction is always momentary lasting for a day or two and by the time the news analysis sinks into the mind, the enthusiasm is over and so is the upward or downward drive. May be the afterthoughts bring to light, many, many reasonings and possibilities overlooked earlier. This is just what happened on 18 May 2009 after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results and the expansion unleashed justified the jump of 2111 points on the Sensex and 651 points on the Nifty in a matter of 36 seconds sans volume. The Sensex scaled the 14284 mark and Nifty touched 4323 level that day. It has been a month since then but the Sensex has failed to touch the 16000 mark and has reverted back to the same level after flirting at 15700 level. Apparently, the momentum did not last. The countdown to the Budget has begun and hopes and expectations of fulfillment are also easing off. The start time for preparation and wishful thinking on the part of every ministry seeking budgetary support makes the FM’s balancing act difficult. The negative inflation rate after a gap of 32 years is also making life difficult for the FM as in reality this is just a blatant tie and will cool-off the flow of funds into the economy, which is negatively inflated. Little wonder, inflation is always a sign of a growing economy. But who cares! The Budget presentation on Monday, 6 July 2009, is special in more ways than one. In the next 15 days, the market shall tone down its expectations and feel lighter and free. The short preparation time will also test the cohesiveness of the coalition partners. The budget in all probabilities will be: (1) An instrument of intent of what the government wants to do in the next 5 years. (2) A roadmap on achieving the intended tasks over the next 5 years. (3) A tool to make tax payments effective. (4) An audit mechanism to plug the loopholes in welfare schemes. (5) A blueprint to complete all tasks, which were on the backburner, thanks to the Left parties. (6) A support to industry in combating slowdown. (7) A kick start to boost rural consumption, which in turn shall decouple us from the global meltdown. (8) A statement of divestment guidelines. (9) Booster to exports. (10) An avenue of enhancing employment. (11) A boon for aam-aadmi to reap the fruits of power, education, road development, housing, education and healthcare. (12) Last but not the least, means to tame the fiscal deficit. The only way out for us from the global slowdown is to give a booster dose to our rural and agri segments. Decoupling from global events is only possible if the Indian economy takes a quantum jump in domestic consumption with lesser dependence on exports. The best bets from the investment point of view shall be scrips, which are agro based. Some of the safe bets are mentioned below: Nagarjuna Fertilisers, GNFC, Coromandel Fertilisers, GSFC, RCF, Chambal Fertilisers as fertilizer becomes the main input for farmers in the new regime. The availability of natural gas makes fertilizer cheaper and the freedom from subsidy, however partial, shall improve their margins. Rural Development and agri based push may give a fresh impetus to United Phosphorous, Kaveri Seeds, Jain Irrigation, Sabero Organics, Bayer Crop Science, Finolex Industries, Crompton Greaves, Karuturi Networks, Hero Honda, Maruti, M&M, ITC, Tata Chemicals, etc. Power will be a frontrunner in infrastructure spending and may witness positive vibes in NTPC, Power Grid, CESC, GIPCL, Voltamp Transformers, Indo Tech Transformers, BHEL, Bharat Bijlee, Tata Power, Reliance Infra, KEC International, Jyoti Structures, Siemens & ABB.
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
By Hitendra Vasudeo ‘Exhaustion at higher levels’ was indicated last week. The Sensex failed to cross the resistance of 15600 and violated the support of 14500. It did manage to close above 14500 but still was below the 2 weeks low of 14526 and the week closed at 14521. Last week, the Sensex opened at 15195.83, attained a high at 15261.03 and fell to a low of 14179.77 before it finally closed the week at 14521.89 and thereby showed a net fall of 716 points on a week-to-week basis. As a result of last week’s price movements, an Evening Star candlestick pattern has emerged, which indicates that the recent rally is put to a halt and a correction/sideways movement to the preceding rally is likely to be witnessed in weeks to come.
A Time Communications Publication 2
Correction/sideways volatility likely
In the last few updates, we have been indicating the likely termination of the rise from 8047 to 15600. First signs of this confirmation were witnessed last week as it closed below Sensex 14526. If we assume that the recent high of 15600 is here to stay as the intermediate top then we will take the retracement of the rise from 8047 to 15600. The 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels are placed at 13816 and 12721 respectively. In the week in which the post election gap up was witnessed (18 May 2009), the Sensex closed at 13887 and in the next week it opened at 13518. Both these levels coincide with the 23.6% retracement level, which is placed at 13816. Therefore, the range of 13816-13518 validates the support in the lower range. The post election results week opened with a gap on the weekly charts and the gap created is in the range of 12173 to 13479. This gap is huge and the 38.2% retracement level is at 12721. The next round of support below 13479 is in the range of 12721-12173. The two cluster support ranges can be defined at 13816-13479 and 12721-12173. If the correction is to stay for the near term and short-term, then the recovery from 13816-13479 range or from 1272112173 will be witnessed to complete Wave b of Wave X and then we could find the price moving higher again for Wave c of Wave X to eventually complete the pattern WX-Y of the medium-term flat pattern from the time of 21206 onwards. If the Sensex continues to move up without looking down next week to cross 15600, then the current minor correction will be the internals of the rise from 8047. On rise above 15600, expect a rise to continue towards 16050, 16236 and 17911. The 61.8% and 75% retracement levels of the fall from 21206 to 8047 are placed at 16236 and 17911 respectively. If we take the retracement of the fall from 21206 to 7697, then 61.8% and 75% retracement will be placed at 16050 and 17885. In short, the next cluster of resistances will be in the range of 16050-16236 above 15600. Weekly resistance will be at 14654, 14770, 15128 and 15600. Weekly support will be at 14407, 13816-13479 and 12721-12173.
Sensex Wave Analysis
Count IWave I-2594 to 3758 Wave II-3758 to 2904 Wave III-2904 to 12671 Internals are as follows: Wave 1- 2904 to 6249 Wave 2-6249 to 4227 Wave 3-4227 to 12671 Wave IV- 12671 to 8799 Wave V- 8799 to 21206 Wave W-X-Y structure has developed Wave W- 21206 to 8047 Wave A-21206 to 14677 Wave B-14677 to 17735 Wave C-17735 to 8047
WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with what ever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the up Trend.
Last Scrips Close Level 1 Level 2 Center Point Relative Weekly Value Stop Loss BAJAJ HINDUSTAN 214.10 LIC HSG FINANCE TECH MAHINDRA 580.40 760.60 164.7 467.5 541.7 650.3 Buy Price 196.3 543.3 684.7 1407.7 711.3 Buy Price 210.0 582.1 751.9 1496.3 746.7 Book Profit 227.9 619.1 827.7 1584.7 772.3 Book Profit 259.5 694.9 970.7 1761.7 833.3 85.5 79.9 77.7 75.7 75.5 194.5 554.9 648.3 1500.8 726.5 20-03-09 13-03-09 08-05-09 27-03-09 27-02-09 Up Date Level 3 Level 4 Strength Reversal Trend
LARSEN & TOUBR 1496.00 1230.7 MAHINDRA & MAHI 737.00
A Time Communications Publication
Wave X- 8047 to 15600 (current ongoing move) Wave a-8047 to 15600 Wave b-15600 to 14178 (current ongoing move) A 3-leg structure in Wave X is a-b-c internals, which is still in process. We are in the process of termination of Wave b now, which is a retracement of the rise from 8047 to 15600. Once Wave b is complete, Wave c will move up again to move higher.
WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with what ever high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Last Close Scrips Level 1 Level 2 Cover Short NTPC TATA COMMUN DIVI'S LABS BHARTI AIRTEL GLENMARK PHAR 198.10 471.85 1105.00 806.00 216.80 143.1 400.0 918.3 746.7 170.3 Cover Short 183.1 451.7 1046.3 786.7 200.7 Sell Price 208.0 483.2 1115.7 807.3 215.1 Center Point Level 3 Level 4 Sell Price 223.1 503.4 1174.3 826.7 231.2 Stop Loss 263.1 555.1 1302.3 866.7 261.6 29.24 32.23 37.02 38.99 39.55 213.58 492.23 1157.50 820.25 229.61 19-06-09 29-05-09 19-06-09 05-06-09 12-6-09 Relative Weekly Value Down Trend Date Strength Reversal
The Broad Market
A correction seems to PUNTER'S PICKS have begun last week. Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target which ever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery The BSE Small Cap index based trade for a possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above. can test the lower range BSE Last Buy On Risk of 5387-5202. Resistance CODE Close Buy Price Rise Scrips Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2 Reward will be at 5864-6074. A GILLANDERS ARBUTHN 532716 100.75 97.30 108.95 94.95 117.6 131.6 2.91 rise above 6074 will SKY INDUSTRIES 526479 75.05 74.00 75.20 67.20 80.1 88.1 0.65 indicate the end of the brief correction or BUY LIST sideways movement will Monthly be generated. The bias is Scrip Last Close Buy Price Buy Price Buy Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2 RS to test the support for the GLAXO SMITH.CONS.HEA 921.00 908.74 896.00 883.26 842.00 1016.7 1124.7 62.77 time being unless a GTL 305.50 300.57 295.80 291.03 275.60 341.0 381.4 63.24 breakout and close above MPHASIS 391.80 368.02 357.52 347.03 313.05 457.0 545.9 67.88 6074 is witnessed. The BSE Mid Cap index has support at 4787. On a fall below 4787, expect the correction to move down towards 4544-4397. Resistance will be at 5409-5278. A rise and close above 5278 can put a halt to the 2 week correction from 5542.
The correction in the BSE Mid Cap index is 2 weeks old now from its recent peak of 5542. So also is the BSE Small Cap index with its high two weeks back at 6645. The Sensex correction is one week old, which shows that the broad market indices correction had begun earlier than the Sensex.
Strategy for the week
The retracement levels of the fall from 15600 to 14179 are placed at 14722-14889-15056. Traders and short term investors can look for a rise to 14722-14889-15056 to exit pending stuck up long positions as the opportunity arises. Alternatively, we have weekly resistance levels at 14654, 14770, 15128, which can be used to exit long positions. On the weekly chart, we have a trend line support being witnessed as shown in the chart. We could, therefore, find the Sensex testing the retracement level and resistance levels first before making attempts to violate last week’s low of 14179.
* Mahindra Holidays & Resorts was smart to launch its IPO rather than risk a weak sentiment post Budget. * Bharti’s fortunes are changing thanks to the MTN touch, which shall make its cell phone ring in 21 countries and enable deep penetration in new areas, countries and continents. Profits, too, shall rise in proportion says an insider. * Reliance Power was the jinxed issue that doomed the market in January 2008. Will Reliance Life’s IPO do the same this time? God save the investors who rely a lot on ‘Reliance’! * Goods & Service Tax (G&ST) is the new buzzword, which shall change the way business is done. In fact, life itself shall change for the better when we have a single G&ST. * Believe it or not! Not even 18 weeks have passed since the change in sentiment and 18 mega IPOs have cleared decks for a grand launch. SEBI needs to wake up to the market realities!
A Time Communications Publication
* Scrips like Bharti, GSK Pharma, Cipla, which were resilient for the last 15 months, show no signs of improvement after the sentiment has changed for the better. Can anyone explain this paradox? This is what makes the market ‘irrational’. * VST Tillers board is meeting shortly to announce results and recommend bonus. Expectations are it would be 1:1. * Satyam stock is reportedly being propped up to ensure that the open offer does not succeed. Also it would enable some other companies, which failed with their open offer to offload stake. Caution is the watchword. * Frontline IT companies would always remain in profit thanks to drastic cost cutting and new orders at lower quotes. Watch out to add Infosys, Wipro, Oracle on dips. * Oil companies may suffer a major setback if the proposal to introduce additional duty on crude is implemented. One needs to be cautious on Oil refining stocks till budget clarity emerges. * Shreyan Industries, Sree Rayalseema Hypo, South India Paper Mills, Anjani Portland Cement are some high EPS stocks available at extremely low valuations. * For the March 2009 quarter, GSFC has written back Rs.58 cr. based on a favourable Supreme Court judgment in an earlier excise matter. Excluding this, it would have posted an EPS of Rs.7.50 for the quarter. Take your bet. * Finally, Dish TV has broken even and reported marginal profits at the operating level for Q4FY09. It still looks relatively expensive at market cap of Rs.3000 cr.
Jupiter Bioscience Ltd. (Code: 524826)
Established in 1985, Jupiter Bioscience Ltd. (JBL) is a reputed pharmaceutical company specialising in the niche areas of peptides, advanced organic chemistry, chiral chemistry and biotechnology. Led by Mr. Venkat R. Kalavakolanu, JBL today ranks among the global top 10 players in peptide chemistry and is the only one in India with the distinction of an integrated model of peptide pharmaceuticals. Along with its subsidiaries, the company is an end-to-end peptide solutions provider covering the entire spectrum from key peptide raw materials to finished formulations. It has strong expertise in manufacturing 700 different varieties of amino acids and its derivatives, which constitute the peptide building blocks. It produces Fmoc-, Boc-, Z-protected amino acids on a large scale. Apart from offering a wide range of coupling reagents used in the synthesis of peptides, JBL also provides generic peptide active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) for the unregulated market. It has cost advantage in the large scale manufacturing of generic peptide APIs as the peptide building blocks are produced in-house. Notably, it has capabilities in both solution and solid phase strategies for peptide syntheses. Synthesis of cyclic peptides of variable sizes is the specialty of the company, which makes it different from other players in the peptide market. Secondly, it is also one of the few global players manufacturing unnatural amino acids. In the non-peptide segment, it manufactures a several organic APIs covering a wide range of therapeutic segments including anti-hypertensives, antidepressants, antispasmodics, antiallergics and anti-ulcer drugs. It also For F&O Traders produces dozens of drug intermediates Profitrak Daily Fresh Futures and fine chemicals that are eventually supplied to reputed pharmaceutical Highlights of Profitrak Daily Fresh Futures: companies on a regular basis. It even 1) One Buy Per Day (If available as per our ‘Buy’ criteria) supplies two veterinary (animal) drugs How a ‘Buy’ is decided? in the anti-helmintics segment. Besides, ‘Fresh Buy’ as per our trading signal. But the trading signal must be it is active in the lucrative and rapidly supported by increase in open interest and volumes and the candle growing CRAMS segment, as API movement (Close>Open) is positive. The stock with the highest relative manufacturing companies in developed strength will be selected as the daily fresh buy from the F&O segment. countries seek contract R&D and 2) Follow up on an earlier Uptrend or ‘Buy’. These stock futures remain in an uptrend till the prices are above the Daily Reversal Value. manufacturing partners in India to 3) Exit Long position indication avail of the cost advantage. Moreover, 4) One Sell Per Day (if available as per our ‘Sell’ criteria) JBL has capabilities to undertake 5) Follow Up of earlier Downtrend or ‘Sell’ customised synthesis of amino acid 6) Exit Short indication derivatives, bulk peptides and new chemical entities (NCE) for its clientele. Subscription: Rs.4000 per month. Broadly, the company has segmented Visit www.moneytimes.in for sample copy. its product profile in three groups For further details contact us on 022-22654805 or email us at namely ‘Peptides’, ‘Drug email@example.com
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Intermediaries’ and ‘Special & fine chemicals’ with around 55% revenue coming from the first, 25% from second and the balance 20% comes from the third segment. In the near future, JBL intends to enhance the peptide share to 65% and then gradually to over 80%. It aims to become a leading integrated global peptides company. Presently, JBL has four domestic manufacturing facilities – one in Karnataka (Bidar) and three in Andhra Pradesh (Cheriyal, Medak, Cherlapally) with a combined installed capacity of 472 TPA as on 31 March 2008. However, the capacity utilisation stands at nearly 50%, which means it can easily double its topline without any capital expenditure. Last year, the company also acquired a high-end GMP approved manufacturing facility of Merck in Switzerland, which gives it a competitive edge. Besides, JBL has set up two wholly owned subsidiaries to cater to the higher segment of the peptide value chain. To cater to the regulated markets of USA, Europe, Japan, etc., its US subsidiary is in the process of implementing a CGMP manufacturing facility in Maryland, USA to manufacture of custom and clinical peptides and peptide based generic APIs. The plant is expected to commence commercial operation shortly FY10. On the other hand, its Indian subsidiary, Sven Genetech, is mainly into the business of development of process capabilities for several products that are pre-cursors to new generation drugs in the fields of AIDS treatment, Cardiology, Oncology, Immunology, Endocrinology, vaccines and others. In short, it is engaged in R&D of peptide raw materials, peptide bulk actives and formulations, unnatural amino acids, custom peptide synthesis, nutraceuticals and enzymes. Importantly, till March 2008 JBL has already invested a whopping Rs.125 cr. in these subsidiaries, which are expected to boost its topline as well as bottomline in future years. It has now started reaping the fruits of all these investments in R&D and in global marketing made in the past. JBL is now recognised in several parts of the world as a highly focused and competent player in peptides. Being a technology and R&D driven company, JBL has to regularly invest considerable amounts in research and technology development. Roughly between 5-8% of sales are spent on R&D activities every year, which are capitalized and generally written-off in five years. In the last couple of years, JBL has made significant investments to upgrade and modernise its manufacturing facilities and quality assurance system to meet the expectations of its overseas customers. As a result, its gross block has almost doubled to Rs.260 cr. by FY08. This was funded by raising Rs.100 cr. through QIB placement at Rs.153 per share in 2007. Because of all these initiatives, it won a long-term contract from Merck of Germany in FY09 to supply peptide raw materials and intermediates. Besides, many leading pharmaceutical companies in Europe and USA became its regular clients over the last two years. Moreover, the company has entered into a 10-year product purchase agreement with Ranbaxy to leverage the latter's vast global market reach and put its upcoming peptide products on a fast-track. Accordingly, Ranbaxy was supposed to take 15% stake at Rs.147 per share and was already allotted the convertible warrants. But unfortunately, due to the management change at Ranbaxy the deal did not take off. At the same time, the company had issued 40 lakh warrants at Rs.182 to few strategic investors, which may lapse in July 2009. Importantly, JBL has been investing and creating facilities for its subsidiaries even though they still do not contribute significantly. Once the subsidiaries start working at the optimum level, it will give a huge fillip to JBL’s financials. Even on a standalone basis, its fundamentals are quite strong with an operating margin of 45-50% and NPM of whopping 20-25%. For FY09, it recorded 10% growth in topline to Rs.143 cr. but PAT was marginally up at Rs.32 due to 100% rise in interest cost. This works out to an EPS of Rs.20 on its current equity of Rs.16.13 cr. Importantly, the company was able to improve its OPM by 200 basis points to 49% for FY09. Considering its future plans and various initiatives, JBL is expected to end FY10 with total revenue of Rs.175 cr. with PAT of Rs.38 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.24 on its current equity. Looking to the current market sentiment, no equity dilution is expected in the near future. Considering its R&D capabilities, JBL deserves much better discounting and investors are strongly advised to buy this stock at current levels as the scrip can very easily double to Rs.120 within a year. If we include the valuation of its subsidiaries, JBL is trading grossly cheap at the current market cap of Rs.100 cr. and can turn out to be multi-bagger if held for 3-5 years.
Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd.: Accumulate on declines
By Devdas Mogili Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. (GFL) is a 22-year old Panchmahal (Gujarat) based company incorporated in 1987 and is a part of the Inox Group of companies. The group has interests in diverse businesses including Industrial Gases, Refrigerants, Chemicals, Carbon Credits, Cryogenic Engineering, Renewable Energy and Entertainment. The company is the largest manufacturer of refrigerant gases used in air conditioners, refrigerators and cooling plants. D K Jain is the chairman while V K Jain is the managing director of the company. The company’s operations can be broadly classified in to two segments, namely chemicals and power. Chemicals comprise of chlorofluorocarbons, hydro fluorocarbons, anhydrous hydrochloric acid, caustic-chlorine, chloromethane, PTFE and power comprises of power generation.
A Time Communications Publication
The company has diversified into other businesses like PTFE (Poly tetra fluoro ethylene), Chemicals, Carbon Trading and entertainment (multiplexes) through subsidiaries. The company commenced commercial operations in 1989 in technical collaboration with Stauffer Chemicals, Pennwalt Corporation and Stearns Catalytic Corporation, USA and commissioned its plant near Vadodara. It diversified into the Entertainment business by setting up a national chain of multiplexes. In 2000-01, Inox Infrastructure Pvt. Ltd. became the wholly-owned subsidiary of the company. During 2004-05, it set up a new unit to manufacture anhydrous hydrochloric acid with a capacity of 5000 MTA. In February 2006, it implemented a Clean Development Mechanism Project, which involves reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by the thermal oxidation of HFC23, a waste product generated at it refrigerant gas plant at Ranjitnagar in Gujarat. As a result, it was issued Carbon Credits by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which it can sell in the international market. In April 2007, it set up a new 23.1 MW wind farm project at Panchgani in Maharashtra. In 2007-08, it also set up a chemical complex at an industrial plot at Dahej in Gujarat. The chemical complex comprises a 30 MW captive power plant, a 54,000 TPA caustic soda and chlorine plant, a 41,630 TPA chloromethane plant and a 5,500 TPA PTFE plant. The PTFE plant is the largest in the country. The company entered into an agreement for formation of a joint venture company in the People's Republic of China (PRC), which manufacture anhydrous hydrogen fluoride and allied activities. In July 2008, it ventured into IT-enabled services business, by setting up a 150 seat call centre/remote transaction facility. The company has decided to expand the wind energy business and has commissioned wind farms of around 55 MW of capacity in the past two years. Marketing: Around 90% of GFL’s production is exported to around 75 countries. The Refrigerant Gas market in India comprises of two distinct customer categories - distributors, who cater to the replacement demand, and OEMs, who manufacture refrigerators, air conditioners and other cooling equipments. Globally, the market is serviced by a network of distributors Carbon Credits: In the Carbon Credit business, the company was till the end of the last financial year issued 12.95 million Carbon Credits (CERs) by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Board, which have already been sold. The sale of carbon credits has added a healthy revenue stream to the company’s operating results and is expected to do so up to 2012 and beyond. Performance: For FY09, sales rose 44.43% to Rs.1044.52 cr. as against Rs.723.22 cr. in FY08. Net profit increased by 6.14% to Rs.340.13 cr. in FY09 from Rs.320.45 cr. in FY08 and it posted an EPS of Rs.29.91. Financial Highlights: (Rs. in cr.) Latest Results: Sales rose 28.71% Particulars Q4FY09 Q4FY08 % Var. FY09 FY08 % Var. to Rs.282.96 cr. in Q4FY09 as Sales 282.96 219.85 29 1044.52 723.22 44 against Rs.219.85 cr. in Q4FY08 OPM % 48.43 46.96 3 51.69 54.53 -5 but net profit declined 8.75% to PBDT 133.51 97.82 36 521.58 456.8 14 Rs.92.66 cr. from Rs.101.54 cr. in PBT 122.89 137.66 -11 474.4 442.97 7 Q4FY08 as it clocked a NP 92.66 101.54 -9 340.13 320.45 6 basic/diluted EPS of Rs.8.44. Financials: The company has an Equity (FV: Re.1) 10.99 11.58 10.99 11.58 equity base of Rs.10.99 cr. with a EPS (Rs) 8.44 9.03 29.91 27.68 book value of Rs.112 and it has a low debt equity ratio of 0.54 with RoCE of 30.81% and RoNW of 30.62%. Share Profile: The company’s shares with a face value of Re.1 are listed and traded on the BSE & NSE under the B group. Its share price touched a 52-week high/low of Rs.218.75/49.50. At its current market price of Rs.124 it has a market capitalization of Rs.1547 cr. Dividends: The company has been paying attractive dividends year after year as shown below: FY09 - 350%, FY08 - 350%, FY07 - 250%, FY06 - 100%, FY05 - 50%, FY04 - 30%, FY03 - 30%, FY02 - 30%. Prospects: The Hydrochlorfluorocarbons (HCFCs) business is expected to grow by around 5% per annum globally due to the growth in demand for PTFE. But GFL has been able to maintain a healthy growth rate over the past few years, and expects to be able to maintain the momentum in growth going into the future due to its vast marketing reach and increasing cost competitiveness, as due to the faster implementation of the Montreal Protocol mandated phase-out schedules in developed countries. On the carbon credit front, it is expected that with rising energy prices and delivery systems getting established, the price of carbon credits generated by the company are is to firm up. The outlook of its Chemical Complex at Dahej is quite positive with the firming up of caustic soda prices domestically and improved PTFE realizations with the imposition of anti-dumping duty on Chinese products exported to Europe.
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As regards the Wind Energy business, there continues to be a demand-supply gap for energy in general and renewable energy in particular. This should provide an impetus for regulatory regime changes to further improve the viability of this business. Conclusion: GFL is a company with interests in refrigerant gases and chemicals. Going forward, the company is expected to reap substantial benefits from sale of carbon credits. At its current market price of Rs.124, the GFL share has a low P/E ratio less than 5 times against the industry P/E multiple of around 11. In view of its high dividend payouts, expected high earnings by sale of carbon credits, the share of GFC=L can be accumulated at every fall with a medium-to-long-term investment perspective.
The indices may move sideways
By Ashok D. Singh Finally, profit booking emerged at higher levels last week. The barometer BSE Sensex fell below the psychological 15,000 mark to end its 14-week winning streak and lost 716.05 points or 4.70% to close at 14,521.89 for the week ended Friday, 19 June 2009. The Sensex is up 4874.58 points or 50.52% in calendar year 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 7697.39 on 27 October 2008, the Sensex is up 6824.50 points or 88.66%. The NSE Nifty lost 269.80 points or 5.88% to end at 4313.60 for the week. Anticipation of a strong push for economic reforms by the newly-elected UPA government, positive global cues and strong foreign fund inflows had triggered a solid rally till week before last but the market declined in 3 out of 5 trading days last week signalling a correction. The BSE Mid-Cap index lost 276.30 points or 5.28% to 4,958.73 and the BSE Small-Cap index shed 396.70 points or 6.60% to 5,617.96 for the week ended Friday, 19 June 2009. Global stocks also fell after finance ministers from the Group of Eight leading industrialised countries on Saturday, 13 June 2009, said they have begun discussing how to unwind the fiscal and monetary policy measures undertaken in response to the financial and economic crisis that had spread last year. Noting a recovery in stock markets, rising consumer and business confidence and improvement in financial markets, the group ‘discussed the need to prepare appropriate strategies for unwinding the extraordinary policy measures taken to respond to the crisis once the recovery is assured,’ the finance ministers said in a statement. ‘These 'exit strategies', which may vary from country to country, are essential to promote a sustainable recovery over the long term,’ they said. Back home, India's industrial production for April 2009 bounced back into the positive zone after declining three times in the preceding four months. The index of industrial production rose 1.4% in April from a revised 0.75% decline in March 2009, data released on 12 June 2009 showed. Industrial output rose 2.4% in FY09, down from a revised 8.5% in 2007-08. Advance tax collections across the country recorded an increase for the first time in the past 6 months, over the corresponding period last fiscal. Advance tax collection for the 1 April 2009 to 16 June 2009 reportedly rose 17% to over Rs.48,000 cr. from Rs.41,800 cr. a year ago. Out of the total collection of Rs.48,000 cr., Rs.26,000 cr. came from corporate taxes. Increase in tax collection is considered as a sign of economic recovery. The annual monsoon rains are seen reviving around 20 June 2009, reports quoting an unnamed official at the India Meteorological FOR WEEKLY GAINS Department indicated on 18 June 2009. Fast...Focused…First Monsoon rains for the week ended 10 June Power of RS Weekly 2009 was 37% below normal as the progress of the annual rains, crucial to the farm sector, Adding to its range of trading products, PROFITRAK is pleased to announce its new offering ‘Power of RS Weekly’ – a product designed stalled after an early start. The monsoon hit for short-term trading. the southern coast on 23 May 2009, ahead of Singling out one stock to focus upon. Power of RS Weekly will identify the normal date of 1 June 2009 but weakened the stop loss, buy price range and profit booking levels along with its thereafter in the last week of May 2009 and the relative strength, weekly reversal value and the start date of the first week of June 2009. trend or the turndown exit signals. This recommendation will be followed up in the subsequent week with Meanwhile, the NSE will adopt the free-float the revised levels for each trading parameter. market capitalisation method to calculate its Available only by email before the beginning of the week. benchmark indices from 26 June 2009 from the Subscription: Rs.1500 per month or Rs.12000 per annum. existing full-float method. As a result, For a sample copy visit www.moneytimes.in or call Money Times on volatility may swell as fund managers will 022-22654805 or email at firstname.lastname@example.org realign their index funds portfolios to mirror changes in the benchmark. Weights of public
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sector undertakings - ONGC, NTPC, SAIL, Power Grid Corporation and NALCO will come down by at least 50% with the index going free float. Other stocks that will see a drop in weightage to this change in methodology include Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communications, TCS, DLF and Wipro. However, Infosys Technologies, ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC and HDFC Bank will stand to gain from this change as their weights will almost double from the current levels. Under the free-float market capitalisation method, weights are assigned on the basis of floating stocks or open market shares of a company. On the other hand, under the full-float method, weights are decided on the total market capitalisation of the company. FIIs were the key drivers of the recent solid surge. After being heavy net sellers of Rs.4250.30 cr. in January 2009 and to the tune of Rs.2707 cr. in February 2009, foreign fund selling eased in March 2009, when they tuned net sellers of only Rs.1.1 cr. Their buying gathered steam in April 2009 when they pumped Rs.7384.50 cr. and they continued their buying spree in May 2009 pouring Rs.20,606.80 cr. in equities. FII inflows in June 2009 totalled Rs.4,962.40 cr. till 17 June 2009 with their inflows in calendar year 2009 at Rs.26,281.80 cr. Trading for the week began on a weak note as weak global markets and the slide in heavyweight Reliance Industries following an unfavourable court ruling on gas sales, dragged indices lower on Monday, 15 June 2009. The BSE Sensex lost 362.42 points, or 2.38%, to end at14,875.52 and the NSE Nifty slipped 99.40 points or 2.17% to close at 4,484. Upbeat advance tax paid by frontline companies for the April-June 2009 quarter helped key benchmark indices reverse intra-day losses and end with decent gains on Tuesday, 16 June 2009. The BSE Sensex rose 82.39 points, or 0.55%, to close at 14,957.91 and the NSe Nifty gained 33.80 points or 0.75% to close at 4,517.80. Weak global cues weighed on investor sentiment on Wednesday, 17 June 2009 as the key benchmark indices tumbled in late trade. The BSE Sensex slumped 435.07 points, or 2.91%, to end at 14,522.84 and the NSE Nifty fell 161.65 points or 3.58% to close at 4,356.15. Reports that the government may rollback excise duty cuts in a bid to return to fiscal prudence amid slack revenue collections and selling by foreign funds weighed on the bourses on Thursday, 18 June 2009. The BSE Sensex declined 257.31 points or 1.77% to close at 14,265.53 and the NSE Nifty fell 104.75 points or 2.4% to end at 4,251.40. Key benchmark indices spurted in late trade on Friday, 19 June 2009 led by rally in realty, metal and capital goods stocks. Higher European stocks and gains in US index futures boosted the market in what was a highly volatile trading session. The BSE 30-share Sensex gained 256.36 points or 1.80% to close at 14,521.89 and the NSE Nifty rose 62.20 points or 1.46% to end at 4,313.60. The Sensex lost 716.05 points to close at 14,521.89 last week. The US Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, 23 June 2009 and Wednesday, 24 June 2009 is the global event to watch out for this week. While the Fed meet is not expected to result in any immediate changes to its loose monetary policy, the market will examine the post-meeting statement for clues as to how long the interest rates will remain at the current near zero level. Closer home, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will present the Union Budget on 6 July 2009 while Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee will present the Rail Budget on 3 July 2009. The Annual Economic Survey will be presented on 2 July 2009. The Union Budget 2009 attains significant importance in the wake of the global financial crisis. Despite the country being relatively unharmed compared to the West, the UPA government will have many tasks on its jobs list, which includes boosting growth and demand maintain liquidity, balancing inflation and containing the country's worrying fiscal situation.
Correction is over
Market to move on Budget gossip
By G. S. Roongta As anticipated, the stock market witnessed a healthy correction by way of large scale profit booking last week in most blue chip stocks beginning from Monday, 15 June 2009. Market leader, Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL), tumbled by 7.5% and closed lower at Rs.2180 losing 276 points - its highest fall on a single day in the recent past. This was followed with two days of continuous fall on account of the unfavourable High Court verdict in the matter of pricing gas supply to brother Anil Ambani’s Reliance Natural Resources from the K. G. basin. The BSE Sensex ended 2.4% lower losing 362.42 points at 14875.52 while it hit an intra-day low of 14807.26 after heavyweight RIL got a rude shock by this court verdict. This triggered the long awaited correction phase. Copper & zinc producer, Sterlite Industries, was also hit hard recording its biggest fall of 7.6% (even higher than RIL). This was followed by Tata Steel, which was down by 4.8% at Rs.434 and aluminium major Hindalco Industries, by 4-6% at Rs.95.85. L&T and BHEL from the infrastructure sector also shed 4.8% and 2.4% respectively. This fall was quite broad based spreading towards mid-cap & G.S. Roongta small-cap stocks too. Dish TV, which was ruling high and aggressively tipped for investment through
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SMSs on cell phones and by market mongers tumbled to as low as Rs.37 from its high of Rs.48 a few days earlier. On Tuesday, 16 June 2009, the Sensex hit a new intra-day low at 14622 but managed to close in the green, up by 82 points at 14957, giving a false impression to lure investors and misguide traders into believing that the fall or profit booking was over despite weak global markets. The Hang Seng traded lower by over 550 points signalling weak Asian markets. The weakness in global markets was even more pronounced the next day on Wednesday, 17 June 2009, as widespread losses were witnessed across the board irrespective of the merits, or sound fundamentals, of most stocks including the blue chips. The Sensex recorded its third straight intra-day loss lower at 14447 while closing slightly higher at 14523 on account of short covering during closing hours between 3 p.m. to 3.30 p.m. RIL declined further by 4.24% Rs.2050, L&T by 3.93% at Rs.1466, Tata Steel by 7.52% at Rs.417, Jaiprakash Associates by 6.28% at Rs.205, Tata Motors by 7.36% at Rs.324, DLF by 5.66% at Rs.333 thus covering almost all sectors like infrastructure, cement, steel, automobiles, realty, etc. Interestingly, not a single stock out of the 30 stocks comprising the BSE Sensex advanced as the benchmark lost 435 points that day. The Sensex had thus corrected by nearly 1000 points by 17 June 2009 from its closing around 15500 mark in the previous week. Reports about the government planning to raise excise duty in the upcoming Budget in sectors like steel & cement, which displayed signs of revival, played havoc with the market sentiment. Marketmen were, on the contrary, hoping for further reliefs and concessions to the corporate sector through abolition of Fringe Benefit Tax and removal of surcharge on taxes and hike in custom duties to safeguard local manufacturers from dumping several items by global producers, who are still facing demand recession in their own countries. This kind of government thinking has dashed hopes of any fresh stimulus package that was widely expected and propagated by the Congress immediately after winning the Lok Sabha elections. Weak global markets triggered fresh FII sales on Wednesday, 17 June 2009, resulting in the indices posting their fourth biggest drop in calendar year 2009. It may be recalled that FIIs were the biggest buyers till Friday, 13 June 2009. But right from Monday, 15 June 2009, they are reported to have unloaded stocks worth over Rs.1500 cr. till Wednesday, 17 June 2009. This means that our markets are solely dependent on foreign investors. When the FIIs buy the market moves up and when they sell the market falls. Our mutual funds, domestic institutions and high networth investors (HNIs) all follow suit. The advance:decline ratios, too, have taken a complete u-turn with only one stock rising against ten declining if the advance:decline figures in the last week is any fair indication. Mid cap and small cap stocks, too, started drifting in line with the overall weak trend in the market on the back of widespread profit booking triggered by discouraging statements about the roll back of 4% in excise duty, which was announced last year as part of a stimulus package for reviving the Indian economy. This report created a panic as all TV channels and print media highlighted it for several days together. Sectors like cement, steel, real estate, infrastructure lost further ground heavily on Thursday, 18 June 2009. ACC lost nearly 75 points at Rs.755, Grasim over 120 points at its low of Rs.2215, RIL continued to drift lower to hit a new recent low at around Rs.2025 shedding over 450 points in the week. Investment Advisory Service Realty stocks, too, were liquidated heavily as by G.S. Roongta some promoters lined up to raise funds Money Times is pleased to introduce Investment Advisory through the QIP route. Many other promoters Service (IAS) by our renowned columnist Mr. G. S. Roongta, who who are facing financial crunch, too, are preparing grounds to raise such funds. This has over 25 years of experience and is well-know for his accurate has made retail investors suspect QIPs, IPOs, forecasts since 1986. Rights issue offers and preferential issues that Interested investors can visit Money Times office between 4 p.m. will start flooding the market once again and to 6 p.m. on Tuesday or Thursday every week after prior put an unbearable load on equity as growth in appointment with our office. Outstation readers can consult him earnings gets diluted. by e-mail or phone. Infrastructure stocks that were fancied till the A minimum one time charge of Rs.1000 has to be paid in advance earlier week lost 25-30% of their recent gains favouring ‘Time Communications (India) Ltd.’ against which a last week led by L&T, BHEL, ABB, Lanco maximum of 5 scrips will be recommended for investment and Infra, IVRCL etc. reviewed up to a period of three months. It may be recalled that we have been Other services like portfolios analysis/restructuring will be expecting a correction in the market since the charged extra depending on the size of the portfolio & service. last three issues. But the kind of intra-day Contact Money Times on 022-22654805 or correction or one or two-day falls and bounce Telefax: 022-22616970 or email us at email@example.com. back thereafter misled many players into
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believing that it was sufficient in the fresh revival of market sentiment after one year. But operators have a unique way and ability to move the market their way while the real correction eludes analysts and technical experts, who keep on guessing as per their tools of study! With the latest fall on Thursday, 18 June 2009, the market seems to have corrected with a rapid fall of nearly 1250 points in just three trading sessions, which was most needed. The Sensex hit a low of nearly 14280 on Thursday, 18 June 2009, in intra-day trade and the Nifty hit a low of 4250, which allowed the short sellers to cover their short positions and helped the market to close a little higher at Sensex 14265.53 and CNX Nifty at 4251.40 The great volatility witnessed on Friday, 19 June 2009, has signaled at last that the correction is over as the Sensex gained 256.36 points to close at 14521.89 after dipping into the red three times during the trading session. After this correction, the market will take a cue from Budget gossip and monsoon behaviour. Stock valuations after this correction have once again become affordable and attractive for the next move on Budget hopes and expectations. Over the next two weeks, the market will move both ways with rapid volatility on Budget rumours and gossip to attract retail investors each time on informed news. Those who felt that they have missed the bus earlier, will now have a chance to enter at affordable prices. The market thus provides an opportunity to both bulls & bears to enter or exit the market as and when they wish to based on each one’s ability and capacity.
By Saarthi While most from its peer group posted losses, Simplex Castings Ltd. (Code: 513472) (Rs.59) has once again reported a decent performance for Q4FY09. Not only did it record 15% growth in sales to Rs.50 cr. but it also registered impressive 40% rise in the bottomline at Rs.2.80 cr. For full FY09, sales have improved by 15% to Rs.173 cr. and net profit increased by 25% at Rs.9 cr. This leads to an EPS of Rs.15 on its equity of Rs.6 cr. and may declare 15% dividend for FY09 as well. The company is one of the largest producer of bogie (engine chassis) frames in India and supplies a wide range of products to the Indian Railways. It manufactures several products including zero leakage coke oven doors, coco bogies, casnub bogies, bogie frame, truck frame, slag pot, blast furnace, ingot moulds, pump casting, pump body, etc. It exports about 20% of its production to USA, Italy, France, Japan, Korea, Egypt, Spain etc. In fact, the company claims to be among the largest manufacturers of zero leakage coke oven doors in the world. It has gradually but constantly expanded and upgraded its manufacturing facility and has plans to venture into project execution in turnkey business of steel plants and also intends to forward integrate into valve manufacturing, which is a very high margin business. For FY10, it has the potential to clock a turnover of over Rs.200 cr. with PAT of Rs.11 cr., which translates into an EPS of Rs.18 on its current equity. Worth accumulating for the long-term. ****** Voltamp Transformers Ltd. (Code: 532757) (Rs.725) is a leading manufacturer of customised transformers for industrial, building and power applications. It has special expertise in production of dry type vacuum resin impregnated (upto 3 MVA/11 kV class) and cast resin transformers (upto 7.5 MVA/33 kV class) apart from manufacturing regular oil filled power & distribution transformers, induction furnace transformers and unitized substations. In fact, the company is the market leader in dry type transformers with about 40% market share. Unlike other transformer manufacturers, VTL's focus is on the non-SEB industrial and engineering segment, which has enabled the company to preserve its profitability on a consistent basis. Even for Q4FY09, it clocked 15% growth in sales to Rs.186 cr. whereas net profit shot up by 40% to Rs.30 cr. posting an EPS of Rs.30 for the single quarter. For full FY09, its sales was up 10% to Rs.737 cr. and PAT increased by 45% to Rs.115 cr. This works out to an EPS of Rs.113 on its current equity of Rs.10.12 cr. Notably, its OPM stood at 23% against 21% last fiscal. Currently, the company is in the midst of putting up a greenfield plant with an installed capacity of 4000 MVA thereby taking the total transformer manufacturing capacity to 13000 MVA. Although the margins may cool down in future, this debt-free company can still be bought at sharp declines. ****** 3i Infotech Ltd. (Code: 532862) (Rs.72) is a leading IT company and among the top 4 Indian software products companies. It provides software products and IT services comprising managed IT services, application software development & maintenance, payment services, business intelligence, document imaging & digitization, operations outsourcing (BPO) and IT consulting for the Insurance, Banking, Capital Market, Mutual Funds, Wealth Management and Government verticals. It services customers in over 50 countries across 5 continents. Its quality certifications include SEI CMMI Level 5 for software business, ISO 9001:2000 for BPO, ISO/IEC 27001:2005 for data centre operations and ISO/IEC 20000-1:2005 for data centre management services. Recently, the company has forayed into the domestic media and broadcasting industry offering services related to systems integration. On the other hand, it has set up a 100% subsidiary to consolidate all its BPO activities, which is spread across 200 Indian cities and contributes nearly 35% of its total revenue. At the same time, the company is acquiring J.P. Morgan Treasury Services’ national retail lockbox business
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(NRLB), which will enable it to process over 700 million payments annually. Financially also, the company is doing well as it posted an encouraging performance for Q4FY09. Effectively on a consolidated basis, its FY09 total revenues were up 90% to Rs.2305 cr. and PAT shot up by 45% to Rs.282 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.21 on its current equity of Rs.130.75 cr. It’s a professionally run company with good growth potential. Investors can safely buy this scrip at the current levels for 50-100% return in 12-15 months. ****** Vakrangee Software Ltd. (Code: 511431) (Rs.59.15) is a leading provider of complete document and data management solutions encompassing large-scale data capturing & management, scanning, digitization and printing. To maintain its growth momentum, VSL is focusing more on the private sector and is constantly adding large companies to its list from the banking & financial services, retail, power and telecom sectors. It competently manages the printing of statements (monthly/quarterly/yearly), bills and mass communication collaterals of these private service providers. Its service matrix includes secured data hosting in the Data Centre, data composition/mining from the data dump like CRM data, transaction data, billing data, design of a one-to-one communication layout and superimposing the relevant text data of each customer of its clients to make an effective and efficient personalized communication statement followed by printing the data stream so prepared in a physical format or SMS/e-mail it to the end customer. At the same time, it continues to execute various e-governance projects and has been recently approached by TCS to work as its build partner for Passport Seva Kendra (PSK) project at 6 sites. Since the last three years, the company’s topline and bottomline has been growing at an impressive CAGR of 90% and 160% respectively. Moreover, it has consistently registered an OPM of over 40% and NPM of 20%. Although it has yet to declare its Q4FY09 results, it has already clocked an EPS of Rs.16 for the first 3 quarters and is expected to end FY09 with a topline of Rs.290 cr. with net profit of Rs.42 cr. for the full year i.e. an EPS of Rs.20 on its current equity of Rs.21.40 cr. Scrip may shoot up post Q4FY09 numbers.
* Pratibha Industries (Rs.156) has maintained a balanced order book position over Rs.2100 cr. as on 31 March 2009. The execution period of these orders ranges from one to four years. The company is very confident and bullish on winning more big-sized orders, which will have a substantial positive impact on its working, profitability and standing in the infrastructure pipe manufacturing industries. The company has projected an order position of Rs.3500 cr. by end FY10. The company has taken a conscious decision on diversification and will accordingly diversify from a pure water segment company to a full-fledged infrastructure development company. The management’s endeavour to shift its focus has yielded positive results and the company is successfully executing diversified projects that include tunnels, airports, high rises, speciality buildings, road and urban infrastructures etc. Currently, it is executing two major airport projects viz., Amritsar Airport and Ahmedabad Airport and two tunnel projects for the BMC, Mumbai. At a recent analysts meet, it has projected sales of Rs.1100 cr. with net profit of Rs.60/61 cr. with PAT margin of 5.5%, which gives an attractive EPS of around Rs.36 against Rs.26.5 of FY09. Investors can accumulate this stock with a target price of Rs.300 over the next one year.
* Canara Bank (Rs.256) aims to take its aggregate business to Rs.4,00,000 cr. mark, comprising Rs.2,25,000 cr. in total deposits and Rs.1,75,000 cr. by advances. Over 200 new branches are to be opened during the year. The bank's Net Interest Margin (NIM) increased from 2.42% in March 2008 to 2.78% in March 2009. The stock looks attractive for investment as its book value is Rs.244 and it has declared 80% dividend making the stock cum dividend, while its FY09 EPS was Rs.50.5. Thus this PSU bank stock is available at a P/E multiple of just 5! * Karnataka Bank’s (Rs.133) total business for FY09 has crossed Rs.32143 cr. with 15.38% growth. The deposits stood at Rs.20333 cr. and advances stood at Rs.11810 cr. recording a growth rate of 19.49% and 8.93% respectively over FY08. PAT increased by 10% to Rs.266.70 cr. The bank opened 16 branches all over India totalling 447 by March 2009 and has networked all its branches under the Core Banking Solution (CBS) covering 100% of its business. It plans to increase the number of branches to 475 and ATMs to 200 during FY10. The bank projects a total business turnover of Rs.39000 cr. comprising deposits of Rs.24000 cr. and advances of Rs.15000 cr. as on 31 March 2010. The book value of its share stands at Rs.128.9 as on 31 March 2009 compared to Rs.113.7 on 31 March 2008, while the EPS for FY09 was Rs.21. The dividend was increased to 60% as against 50% last year on its Rs.10 paid-up share. The stock looks attractive for investment at Rs.135 level.
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* GSFC (Rs.174) has reported encouraging Q4FY09 results as net profit shot up from Rs.2.85 cr. to Rs.9.85 cr. while net profit for FY09 shot up from Rs.23.84 cr. to Rs.49.93 cr. resulting in an attractive EPS of Rs.63.66. Dividend declared is 45%. The stock is trading at a P/E multiple of just 2.8. The stock can touch Rs.275 over the next 6 months. * B L Kashyap (Rs.310) offers a diversified range of construction and allied services to various corporates. It also undertakes turnkey projects that comprise civil construction, electrical, plumbing, fire fighting, air conditioning and other works. The stock has reacted from its high of around Rs.2200 to the current level, where investors can think of accumulating it on dips. For FY09, the expected EPS is around Rs.50. With expected growth in the infrastructure sector, this stock may go up to Rs.500 level. * Sesa Goa (Rs.189) was recommended for investment around Rs.75 level. Investors can continue to hold the stock or even add on dips around Rs.175 level for good long-term growth. * Investors can continue to hold stocks like Unitech, HCC, IFCI, IDBI for a good upside. * Margins of Rishi Lazers (Rs.29) are under pressure and it is likely to do better from the second half of the current year. The stock is good to accumulate below Rs.25 level. * Charge Chrome prices are likely to firm up from H2FY10, Indian Metal & Ferro Alloys (Rs.224) has come down from a high of Rs.345 to Rs.220 levels. Investors can keep a watch on this stock for accumulation. * Lancor Holdings (Rs.43) - Keep a watch on this real estate stock for investment on dips around Rs.35/38 levels. * VST Tillers (Rs.250) remained very firm last week in spite of the sharp fall in mid caps. Long-term investors can accumulate this stock on dips for good growth. * FAG Bearings (Rs.422) is a good stock to hold in your portfolio. * Investors can switch from Asahi India (Rs.53), which is a Re.1 paid-up stock and trading at Rs.52 level. The company has high debts and is yet to report profits. Valuations are high. Investors can switch to FAG Bearings for good long-term growth. * Investors if holding Tips Industries (Rs.32) should stay invested or add on dips around Rs.28/29 levels for investment. * With expected EPS of Rs.50/52, book value of Rs.260, Unity Infraprojects (Rs.284) can be held on to for good long-term growth. Investors can even keep a watch to add on dips around Rs.250 level. Note: We had timely advised readers to book profit and increase cash levels two weeks back. Investors who booked profits can think of adding the above stocks where the downside is limited. Market may witness a pre-budget rally from next week.
By V. H. Dave
Polyplex Corporation: An undervalued scrip
An analyst strongly recommends investment in Polyplex Corporation Ltd. (PCL) (Code: 524051) (Rs.171) based on its encouraging Q3FY09 results and expansion plans. PCL is the world's fifth largest producer of thin polyester film with manufacturing facilities in India and Thailand to meet the PET film needs of its global customers. It is one of India’s leading manufacturer and exporter of Biaxially Oriented Polyester (BOPET) Film for packaging, electrical and other industrial applications. With headquarters in Noida, New Delhi, PCL has three PET Film manufacturing facilities – one at Khatima Uttarakhand; another at Rayong province in Thailand, which is owned and operated by its subsidiary Polyplex (Thailand) Public Company Ltd. (PTL); and the latest facility at Çorlu, Tekirdag in Turkey, which is owned and operated by a whollyowned subsidiary of PTL called Polyplex Europa Polyester Film San. ve Tic. A.S. (PE). The total capacity of its PET chips is 1,18,000 TPA, metalliser 26,200 TPA and silicon coating facility 10,700 TPA. PET film is a high performance film made from polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resin (generally known as polyester chips), which in turn, is produced from Dimethyl Terephthalate (DMT)/Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) and Mono-Ethylene Glycol (MEG). For FY08, PCL registered 31% higher consolidated sales of Rs.1001 cr. and recorded FREE 1-DAY TRIAL FOR 32% higher net profit of Rs.82.4 cr. recording an EPS of Rs.54. For Q3FY09, it posted 5% Live market intra-day calls higher sales of Rs.267 cr. and earned 34% A running commentary of intra-day trading recommendations on higher net profit of Rs.38.6 cr. For the first your mobile or Yahoo Messenger every trading day of the month three quarters of FY09, its sales advanced 14% for Rs.3,000 per month. to Rs.851 cr. and net profit by 30% to Rs.83.3 For 1-day free trial call Money Times to register. Provide your cr. mobile number or Yahoo Id. Tel: 022-22616970, 22654805 or Email: firstname.lastname@example.org The company has allotted 13,50,000 shares at Rs.152 per share and 16,50,000 warrants with
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an option to apply for equal number of shares at a price of Rs.152 per share within 18 months to the promoter group companies. As a result, its equity capital stands enhanced to Rs.16 cr. and will further increase to Rs.17.7 cr. by FY09. With reserves of Rs.454 cr., the book value of the share works out to Rs.293. The promoters hold 47% in the equity capital, foreign holding is 11%, institution/mutual funds hold 7%, PCBs hold 13% leaving 22% with the investing public. Polyplex Europa has completed its US $50 million expansion in Turkey. A metallizer plant of 5,700 TPA (No. 5) and 24,000 TPA PET film plant (Line 6) both in Turkey and 5,700 TPA metallizer plant (No. 4) in Thailand were commissioned in May 2008. It had already commissioned a 150 million sq. mt. extrusion coating plant in Thailand in April 2008. Satisfactory progress has been made for its CPP (cast polypropylene) film plant of 10,000 TPA and metallizer plant of 4,000 (No. 8) at Thailand. In India, the company is also implementing a 31,000 TPA PET film (Line 7); chip plant of 57,600 TPA, two metallizer plants of 7,000 TPA (No. 6) & 4,500 TPA (No. 7) and BOPP film of 35,000 TPA (Line 8). PCL has established itself as one of the most profitable producers of PET films by cost efficient operations resulting from high productivity and low overheads. Its products have gained wide acceptance in USA, Europe, South-East Asia, South America, North America and Australia, where it has been consistently exporting about 75% of its production. The global packaging industry is estimated at around US $424 billion and is expected to grow at around 3.5% per annum over the next decade and will thus increase to US $600 billion by 2014. The world’s converted flexible packaging market is around 12% of the global packaging market and is close to US $50 billion (14 million MT). The global capacity of BOPP was 4.4 million MT in 2006 and is expected to increase to 6 MMT by 2011. The total market size of the packaging industry in India is about $6 billion, of which flexible packaging commands 22% or $1.32 billion (Rs 5,500 cr.). This is expected to grow by 20% p.a. on account of the increase in demand for thin films, with packaging being the dominant application and driver of growth. The company’s geographically diversified manufacturing locations, enhanced servicing capabilities and access to regional trading blocs backed by strong global and domestic demand, high operating rates, low overheads, its strong customer relationships, focus on high growth segments and future expansion has give clear visibility to its revenue & profitability in coming years. For FY09, sales are expected to go up to Rs.1200 cr. with a net profit after minority interest increasing to Rs.105 cr. The EPS would work out to Rs.59 on its enhanced equity of Rs.17.7 cr. The EPS would further go up to Rs.85 in FY10 on completion of expansion. At CMP of Rs.171, the PCL share is trading at a P/E of 2.9 on its FY09 estimated EPS of Rs.59. The share of Jindal Poly Films, its immediate competitor, is currently quoting at Rs.277 at a P/E of 4.7 on its FY09 earnings. The industry P/E of the packaging industry currently rules at a staggering 15, which leaves substantial scope for the PCL share to rise smartly in the near future. Applying a reasonable P/E of 4 will take its share price to Rs.236 in the medium-term and Rs.340 in the long-term. The 52week high/low of the share has been Rs.195/95. ******
Softsol India: For a steady rise
The shares of Softsol India Ltd. (SIL) (Code: 532344) (Rs.39.50) are recommended for steady appreciation in the long-term. Hyderabad-based SIL specialises in Enterprise Technology Modernisation solutions. It develops custom software in both the dot NET and J2EE environments, modernizes legacy systems and integrates ERP systems. It also helps clients with technologies such as service oriented architecture (SOA) or other ways to implement real world solutions for both industry and government clients. SIL came out with its IPO in May 2000 for 33,66,684 equity shares of Rs.10 each at a premium of Rs.85 per share aggregating Rs.34.12 cr. The company’s Enterprise Technology Profitrak Short-term Gains Daily Modernization solutions rely on an unique combination of highly efficient automated tools, A daily presentation of scrips set to rise together with proven methodologies, best practices and scalable their levels of Stop Loss and Profit Target for the professional resources. Its service teams enhance the short-term trader for a period of 1 – 7 days. Futures value proposition complying with the customers’ also included. unique requirements such as fixed bid, offshore, US Available by e-mail only. security clearance etc. Subscription Rate: Rs.8,000 per annum SIL has more than 600 highly qualified IT Visit www.moneytimes.in for sample copy professionals and 150,000 sq. ft. of state-of-the-art technology development centres located in India
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and abroad. It delivers world-class services through a combination of geographic presence and specialised technology practices. The company offers a wide range of services including e-commerce, ASP, Internet, web applications, client server migrations and network solutions. Around 75% of its business comes from web-related activities while the balance 25% comes from network solutions and network management. For FY08, its sales were up by 48% to Rs.19 cr. and net profit by 91% at Rs.9.2 cr. and the EPS was Rs.4.7. During Q3FY09, sales advanced by 65% to Rs.9.3 cr. with net profit up by 156% at Rs.6.7 cr. For the first nine months of FY09, while sales advanced by 139% to Rs.31 cr., net profit skyrocketed by 396% to Rs.21.5 cr. SIL’s equity capital is Rs.19.5 cr. and with reserves of Rs.120 cr., the book value of its share works out to Rs.71.5. The value of its gross block is Rs.42 cr. and there are no debts in its balance sheet. The promoters hold 58.1% in its equity capital, foreign holding is 30.7% and PCB holding of 1.5% leaves 9.7% with the investing public. Coming to future prospects, as per the National Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM) strategic review 2008, the export revenue generated by the software and service industry (IT-BPO) in India was approximately $24 billion in FY06, which increased by 31% to $31.8 billion in FY07. The projected export revenue for FY08 was $40.8 billion, which could increase to $60 billion by 2010. SIL has plans to set up a new software development facility in Vizag. Apart from expanding its facilities to meet the requirements of growth both from its existing and new customers, it has also identified various areas that will drive the company's growth plans. Some of the key growth drivers for SIL are: Domain expertise, enhancement of service portfolio to clients, new geographies, strengthening its marketing teams and inorganic initiatives. Based on the above, SIL is likely to post a net profit of about Rs.27 cr. for FY09, which would fetch an EPS of Rs.14. The shares of SIL are currently traded at Rs.39, discounting its estimated FY09 EPS of Rs.14 by 3 times. Investment in this share is likely to fetch a decent appreciation of over 33% in 6-9 months. The 52 week high/low of the share has been Rs.63/20.
By Hitendra Vasudeo
Follow-up of earlier Chart Views
BEML - Hold long positions with a stop loss of Rs.727. On further rise and close above Rs.968, expect a rise toward Rs.1063 - Rs.1248. Voltas - Exit long positions at Rs.121 - Rs.134 - Rs.145 as the opportunity arises. Titan Industries - Exit long positions on rise to Rs.1225 - Rs.1330 as the opportunity arises. Buy at Rs.1168 - Rs.1127 with a stop loss of Rs.1112. ICICI Bank - Hold long positions with a stop loss of Rs.650 and look for rise to Rs.749 - Rs.797 to book profit. Financial Technologies – Long-term investors can accumulate at Rs.1130 - Rs.991 - Rs.853 as the opportunity arises. Short-term traders and investors can look for a rise from the current price to Rs.1582 to exit long. Re-enter long on rise and close above Rs.1582, whenever it happens. Power Finance Corporation – Short-term traders and investors can exit long positions on rise to Rs.192 - Rs.205 - Rs.227 range to exit long positions. Long-term investors can accumulate on dips to Rs.173 - Rs.156 - Rs.139 range as the opportunity arises.
By Nayan Patel
Bal Pharma Ltd.
Two safe small cap pharma stocks
BSE Code: 524824 NSE Code: BALPHARMA Last Close: Rs.22.90 Bal Pharma Ltd. (BPL) is a leading Indian pharmaceutical company specialising in prescription drugs, Generics, OTC products, Intravenous Infusion and Bulk Actives with 19 years of experience behind it. Successful operations in the domestic and global markets backed by its strengths in research and its strong infrastructure framework have accelerated BPL’s growth from oblivion to US $25 million turnover today. Buoyed by this success, the group has put into motion fast track growth and has set its sight on sales in excess of US $150 million by 2012. The company has four manufacturing units - two in Bangalore, one in Pune and one in Uttarakhand. It has an equity base of Rs.10.45 cr. with huge reserves of around Rs.25 cr. Promoters hold 51.72% stake in the company while the investing public holds only 43.41%.
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BPL posted a net profit of Rs.3.91 cr. for the first 9 months of FY09 against Rs.2.85 cr. for full FY08. While we expect very good numbers for Q4FY09, the share price fell from Rs.35 to Rs.13 in one year and is currently available at Rs.21 at a P/E ratio of just 8. Buy at every decline with a stop loss of Rs.17. On the upper side, the stock will go up to Rs.27-29 level in the short-term and could go up to Rs.35 level in the medium-term.
Jagsonpal Pharma Ltd.
BSE Code: 507789 NSE Code: JAGSNPHARM Last Close: Rs.14 Jagsonpal Pharma Ltd. (JPL) is among India’s premier pharmaceutical companies. It has substantial R&D, manufacturing, marketing and distribution facilities. Founded in 1964, the company specialises in developing and manufacturing bulk drugs and pharmaceutical formulations. It has an expanding international portfolio of affiliates, joint ventures and representative offices across the globe making it a truly international operation. The firm is represented by 2,500 agents worldwide and has offices in 3 continents. The company’s operations span Russia, Brazil, USA, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Cameroon, Thailand, Argentina, Germany, Switzerland, Korea, Egypt and Vietnam making its reach truly global. Its new plant at Uttarakhand commenced production in April 2008. The company has an equity of Rs.13.09 cr. with huge reserves of around Rs.60 cr. The promoters hold 65.79% stake while the Indian public holds 26.09% stake. JPL posted a net profit of Rs.5.05 cr. in the first 9 months of FY09 against Rs.3.06 cr. for the whole of FY08. While we expect very good working numbers for the March 2009 quarter, its share price fell from Rs.18 to Rs.6 in just one year and is currently available at Rs.13 at a P/E ratio of just 6. Buy at every decline with a stop loss of Rs.10. On the upper side, the stock will go up to Rs.18-20 level in the short-term and it cold go up to Rs.25 level in the medium-term.
MONEY FOLIO Mahindra Holidays & Resorts IPO opens on June 23
Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd. (MHRIL), a leading leisure hospitality provider offering quality family holidays and a part of the Mahindra Group, has fuxed the price band between Rs.275 and Rs.325 per equity share for its IPO of 92,65,275 equity shares of Rs. 10 each for cash at a price to be decided through a 100% book-building process. The Bid/Issue opens on Tuesday, 23 June and closes on Friday, 26 June 2009. MHRIL offers quality family holidays primarily through vacation ownership memberships and has introduced new vacation ownership offerings such as Zest and Club Mahindra Fundays, Mahindra Homestays, travel and holiday related services through clubmahindra.travel. The cumulative member base increased to 92,825 in fiscal 2009 from 38,691 in fiscal 2006. As of May 31, 2009, MHRIL has 96,067 members and 27 resorts across India and Thailand. About 35.18% of new member additions in FY09 came from referrals by existing members.
The issue has been assigned 4 out of 5 IPO grading by Fitch Ratings India Pvt. Ltd. reflecting its 'above average fundamentals’.
The proceeds from the issue are to be deployed in the setting up of new projects and expansion of some existing resorts, to provide a larger range of resorts and offer a wider choice of holiday destinations to members.
IRB bags BOT projects in Punjab & Goa
IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd. has emerged as the lowest bidder for its first BOT project in Punjab for the Pathankot to Amritsar Section of NH - 15 from Km. 6.082 to Km. 108.502 in the State of Punjab under NHDP Phase IIIB on BOT basis. Based on the DBFOT pattern, the project cost is approx. Rs.1200 cr. and the project length is 102.42 kms. IRB will get a concession period of 20 years and the company has sought a grant of Rs 126.90 cr. for the project from NHAI. The construction period is 910 days. On June 17, 2009, the company had emerged as the lowest bidder for the project of four-laning of NH-4A from Goa/Karnataka Border Km 84.00 to Panaji – Goa Km 153.070 in the State of Goa under NHDP Phase III on BOT basis which is an approximately Rs.800 cr. project based on the DBFOT pattern. The company is already operating on a continuous stretch of 415 kms of highways from Pune to Bharuch via Mumbai, Vapi and Surat, through its projects : Mumbai-Pune BOT (NH4 of 111 kms), Dahisar- Surat BOT (NH8 of 239 kms) and Surat-Bharuch BOT(NH8 of 65 kms). This translates into 7.5% of the Golden Quadrilateral coming under IRB’s management, the largest holding under any single developer.
Avon launches Digital Body Analysis Scale
A Time Communications Publication
Avon Corporation Ltd., an ISO 9001: 2000 certified leading weighing scales manufacturer has introduced 3 new models of digital weighing scales: APD-801 Kids Digital Glass Scale with stunning glass balance with attractive colours & stylish cartoon finish to arrest the attention of children; APD-803 is an elegantly designed digital unit to measure ones weight accurately; ABD-803 Digital Body Analysis Scale with Strain Gauge Precision Technology, which can keep track of body fat, water percentage & bone mass and encourages one to stay healthy.
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