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(Excerpts from William N. Dunn, Public Policy Analysis: An Introduction, 2nd Edition, pp. 1-30.) Policy analysis 1 is the activity of creating knowledge of and in the policy-making process (Lasswell, 1971, 1; Brewer and de Leon, 1983; Brunner, 1992, 155-97). In creating knowledge of policy-making processes policy analysts investigate the causes, consequences, and performance of public policies and programs. Such knowledge remains incomplete, however, unless it is made available to policymakers and the public they are obligated to serve. Only when knowledge of is linked to knowledge in can members of executive, legislative, and judicial bodies, along with citizens who have a stake in public decisions, use the results of policy analysis to improve the policy-making process and its performance. Because the effectiveness of policy making depends on access to the stock of available knowledge, the communication and use of policy analysis are central to the practice and theory of public policy making (Lasswell, 1971; Lindblom and Cohen, 1979; Weiss, 1980; Webber, 1992, 415-41; MacRae, 1991, 36-50). Methodology of Policy Analysis The methodology of policy analysis draws from and integrates elements of multiple disciplines: political science, sociology, psychology, economics, philosophy. Policy analysis is partly descriptive, drawing on traditional disciplines (for example, political science) that seek knowledge about causes and consequences of public policies (Dye, 1978; Cook and Campbell, 1979; Campbell, 1988). Yet policy analysis is also normative; an additional aim is the creation and critique of knowledge claims about the value of public policies for past, present, and future generations (Fischer, 1980; Dunn, 1983a, 831-66). This normative, or value-critical, aspect of policy analysis becomes evident once we recognize that policy-relevant knowledge involves a dynamic between dependent variables (ends) and independent variables (means) which are valuative in character (MacRae, 1976a, ch. 4). The choice of variables therefore often amounts to choosing among competing values: health, wealth, security, peace, justice, equality, freedom. To choose or prioritize one value over another is not a technical judgment, merely; it is also a judgment requiring moral reasoning, and for this reason, policy analysis represents a form of applied ethics. Finally, policy analysis seeks to create knowledge that improves the efficiency of choices among alternative policies--for example, alternative policies for providing affordable health care, redistributing income among the poor, eliminating race and sex discrimination in employment, promoting international economic competitiveness, or maintaining national military security. The methodology of policy analysis, as noted above, aims at creating, critically assessing, and communicating policy-relevant knowledge. In this context, knowledge refers to plausibly true beliefs, as distinguished from beliefs that are certainly true, or even true with a particular statistical probability. The complexity of processes of policy formation and implementation virtually guarantee that the necessary and sufficient conditions for establishing the certainty of knowledge claims are rarely, if ever, satisfied.2 Statistical probability, in turn, has not direct bearing on the plausibility of knowledge claims, including causal inferences (Rescher, 1980, 26-29; Campbell, 1988, 315-33; Mitroff and Mason, 1980). Indeed, the establishment of a knowledge claim such as "Raising the minimum wage will result in decreased employment" is a precondition for raising questions about the probability of this result occurring. Although the plausibility of claims may be supplemented or reinforced by statistical evidence, probability3 as such performs an ancillary role in establishing plausibly true beliefs (Rescher, 1980, 203). Indeed, policy analysis has come to represent a systematic methodology for problem solving in the face of complexity, an aim that runs directly counter to misguided notions that policy making involves well-informed calculations by economically, politically, or organizationally "rational" actors who seek, respectively, to maximize economic utility, political power, or organizational effectiveness (Diesing, 1962; Silverman, 1971). A key feature of research and analysis on social problems over the past 40 and more years is the growing recognition of complexity. This historical development has been accompanied by the use of multiple perspectives, theories, and methods, along with the inclusion of multiple policy stakeholders, in the process of creating, critically assessing, and communicating policy-relevant knowledge. The methodological core of policy analysis today can be broadly characterized as a form of critical multiplism (Cook, 1985, 21-62). The basic methodological injunction of critical multiplism is triangulation: If analysts seek to improve policy-relevant knowledge, they should employ multiple perspectives, methods, measures, data sources, and communications media.4
including citizens whose rights and opportunities in democratic political systems either have not been realized or have been violated or abridged (Fischer. policy outcomes. Critical multiplism is a response to the inadequacies of logical positivism as a theory of knowledge and an effort to develop new procedures on the basis of lessons learned from doing policy analysis during the era of the Great Society (Hawkesworth. and hypotheses that challenge the analyst's conclusions. and eliminating or synthesizing (where possible) rival theories. which governs the usability of policy analysis in contexts of practice. and to the general guidelines or rules of critical multiplism. evaluating. but by identifying. prediction. policy outcomes. The arrows connecting each informational component depict a dynamic process whereby one type of information is transformed into another by using appropriate policy-analytic procedures (Figure 1-2). these general procedures range from methods of forecasting based on expert judgment (Delphi methods) to methods based on multivariate analysis (causal modeling) and the extrapolation of historical . 57). Methods of policy analysis are general procedures for producing and transforming policy-relevant information in a wide variety of contexts. in the area of forecasting. and what are their outcomes? How valuable are these outcomes in solving the problem? What policy alternatives are available to address the problem. the starting point in reasoned arguments which establish the plausibility of knowledge claims in the face of criticisms. For example. rules. including doing nothing. Monitoring (description) yields information about the present and past consequences of acting on policy alternatives. Kelly. 1992. The five types of information are shown as shaded rectangles in Figure 1-1. Inductive plausibility is not established by enumerating cases that support or confirm conclusions. inductive plausibility. provides information about the value or worth of these consequences in solving or alleviating the problem. 1979).5 not certainty. Procedures alone do not yield policy-relevant knowledge. the methodology of policy analysis incorporates standards. The five policy-analytic procedures shown in Figure 1-2 serve as a means for organizing particular methods and techniques of policy analysis. perspectives. policy actions. and policy performance. and policy performance. Policy-relevant information is the basis for making knowledge claims of many kinds. Recommendation (prescription) provides information about the relative value or worth of these future consequences in solving or alleviating the problem. Accordingly. policy futures. which has the same name as its ordinary language counterpart. These five policy-analytic procedures are represented as shaded ovals in Figure 1-2. Evaluation. and what are their likely future outcomes? What alternatives should be acted on to solve the problem? Answers to these questions yield information about policy problems. 329-48). or rebuttals. As we have seen. But it is the standards and rules that govern the selection and use of procedures and the critical assessment of their results. 1992. methods. In policy analysis these procedures have been given special names. policy futures. Problem structuring (definition) yields information about the conditions giving rise to a policy problem. prescription. policy actions. and procedures. the role of procedures is confined to the production of information about policy problems. 1988). For critical multiplism. The methodology of policy analysis incorporates five general procedures that are common to most efforts at human problem solving: definition. 1985. Policy argumentation and debate is one of the principal vehicles for converting information into knowledge and. policy-relevant knowledge is knowledge that assists in formulating and solving problems. and techniques. as these problems are experienced by policymakers and citizens on whom policies have an impact. challenges. 1992. description. and evaluation. 349-74. 1988. Policy-Analytic Procedures In approaching policy analysis as a process of inquiry it is important to distinguish methodology. Forecasting (prediction) supplies information about future consequences of acting on policy alternatives. even wisdom. The five types of policy-relevant information shown in Figure 1-1 are interrelated and interdependent.What is Policy Analysis? 4 Multiplism has an important methodological advantage over its rivals: "Approximating the ultimately unknowable truth through the use of processes that critically triangulate from a variety of perspectives on what is worth knowing and what is known (Cook. Procedures are thus subordinate to standards of plausibility and policy relevance. Policy-Relevant Information The methodology of policy analysis provides information that is useful in answering five kinds of questions: What is the nature of the problem? What present and past policies have been established to address the problem. Cook and Campbell. is the defining characteristic of knowledge and a major standard of success in policy inquiry (Campbell. occasionally. Multiplism is not so much a new methodology as it is a creative synthesis of a broad range of research and analytic practices advocated and used by a cross section of the policy science community. The other major standard is policy relevance.
Wade Supreme Court justices reach a majority decision that women have the right to terminate pregnancies through abortion. that is. Many problems are not acted on at all. ILLUSTRATION A state legislator and her co-sponsor prepare a bill that goes to the Health and Welfare Committee for study and approval.What is Policy Analysis? 5 time series (time-series analysis). or a court decision. The city treasurer hires additional staff to ensure compliance with a new law which imposes taxes on hospitals that no longer have tax-exempt status. critically assess. A state court considers prohibiting the use of standardized achievement tests such as the SAT on grounds that the tests are biased against women and minorities. and courts are in compliance with statutory requirements of a policy and achieving its objectives. including procedures for discounting benefits and costs to their present value and calculating internal rates of return for projects and programs. and legislative acts. THE PROCESS OF POLICY MAKING The process of policy analysis is a series of intellectual activities carried out within a process comprised of activities that are essentially political. Alternative policies assume the form of executive orders. including the Durbin-Watson statistic. Policy analysts may produce information relevant to one. These political activities can be described usefully as the policy-making process and visualized as a series of interdependent phases arrayed through time: agendas setting. TABLE 1-1 Phases of the Policy-Making Process PHASE AGENDA SETTING CHARACTERISTICS Elected and appointed officials place problems on the public agenda. depending on the type of problem faced by the client for policy analysis. The General Accounting Office monitors social welfare programs such as Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) to determine the scope of welfare fraud. consensus among agency directors. The bill stays in committee and is not voted on. Each phase is related to the next. while others are addressed only after long delays. POLICY FORMULATION POLICY ADOPTION POLICY IMPLEMENTATION POLICY ASSESSMENT Policy analysis seeks to create. For example. policy adoption. relatively specialized procedures used in concert with particular methods to answer a more restricted range of questions. An adopted policy is carried out by administrative units which mobilize financial and human resources to comply with the policy. legislatures. policy assessment (Table 1-1). policy formulation. In Roe v. or all phases of the policy-making process. Officials formulate alternative policies to deal with a problem. Similarly. These phases represent ongoing activities that occur through time. In sum. . there are several techniques for estimating serial correlation in time-series data. and communicate policy-relevant knowledge within one or more phases of the policy-making process. Auditing and accounting units in government determine whether executive agencies. Figure 1-3 shows the complete framework for problem-centered policy analysis. the five policy-analytic procedures are supported by a range of methods and techniques that are useful for producing and transforming policy-relevant information. A policy alternative is adopted with the support of a legislative majority. the method of benefit-cost analysis is supported by several important techniques. several. court decisions. Each of these methods is supported by a number of techniques . policy implementation.
1975. 1-27). and locate sources of responsibility for departures from policies. For example. as shown by the rectangles (policy-making phases) and shaded ovals (policy-analytic procedures) in Figure 1-4. Analysts in the Health Care Finance Administration. and designing new policy options. economic and social welfare policies in the United States were recently monitored by analysts in the Bureau of the Census. 1987). Forecasting can examine plausible. thus assisting policymakers in the policy implementation phase. thus aiding policymakers in the policy adoption phase. potential. 77-94). crime. The application of policy-analytic procedures may yield policy-relevant knowledge that directly affects assumptions. estimate the consequences of existing and proposed policies. Anderson. as well as to the intermediate phases. In the same period the share of national income by the top fifth of households grew from 43 percent to 46. but as an indicator of continuing gross inequalities of educational opportunity between minority and white students. Problem structuring can assist in discovering hidden assumptions. 1983. Recommendation Recommendation yields policy-relevant knowledge about the benefits and costs of alternatives the future consequences of which have been estimated through forecasting. 1977. Recommendation helps estimate levels of risk and uncertainty. In the meantime. There are a number of ways that applications of policy analysis may improve the policy-making process and its performance. Many agencies regularly monitor the outcomes and impacts of policies by means of various policy indicators in areas of health. and estimate the political feasibility (support and opposition) of different options. 1991. for example. recently employed forecasting methods (statistical projection) to estimate that unless additional revenues are generated. the program would need to be cut by more than 50 percent. the problem of race and sex bias in the some 20 million standardized tests administered annually in the United States was placed on the legislative agendas of several states throughout the late 1980s. Their analysis concludes that real median household income in the United States grew by merely 2 percent between 1969 and 1989. Forecasting Forecasting can provide policy-relevant knowledge about future states of affairs which are likely to occur as a consequence of adopting alternatives. the trust fund for Medicare will be exhausted by the year 2005. One recommendation. For example. Brewer and de Leon.What is Policy Analysis? 6 and the last phase (policy assessment) is linked to the first (agenda setting). Lemieux. the assumption that test bias is a problem requiring legislative action (prohibition of standardized tests) was challenged by analysts who. recommendations to change speed laws (national maximum speed limit) have focused on the costs per fatality averted under the 55 mph and 65 mph options. Monitoring helps to assess degrees of compliance. synthesizing conflicting views. including doing nothing. specify criteria for making choices. and McKusick. welfare. reformulated the problem. mapping possible objectives. judgments. By 1990 some 40 states had abandoned the 55 mph speed limit. Waldo. that are under consideration at the phase of policy formulation. The continued use of standardized tests to monitor and mitigate these gross inequalities was recommended (Dunn and Roberts. in a non-linear cycle or round of activities (Jones. education. after synthesizing and evaluating available research on test bias recommended by multiple stakeholders. which in turn indirectly affects performance in subsequent phases. 1990. housing. specify probable future constraints on the achievement of objectives. and assign administrative responsibility for implementing policies. Activities involving the application of policy-analytic procedures are appropriate for particular phases of the policy-making process. benefits under Medicare in 2005 would need to be reduced by $46 billion and. For example. and science and technology (MacRae.7 percent. The large discrepancies in minority and white test scores was not formulated as a problem of test bias. ultimately. and actions in one phase. identify implementational obstacles and constraints. Problem Structuring Problem structuring can supply policy-relevant knowledge that challenges the assumptions underlying the definition of problems reaching the policy-making process through agenda setting . In the absence of new health care policy initiatives. 1956). diagnosing causes. discover unintended consequences of policies and programs. proposes the expenditure of existing funds on smoke detectors and other preventive health and safety measures (Lave and Lave. based on the conclusion that the 55 mph speed limit will continue to account for no more than 2 to 3 percent of fatalities averted. In Pennsylvania. and normatively valued futures. All other income groups . Monitoring Monitoring provides policy-relevant knowledge about the consequences of previously adopted policies. Lasswell. identify externalities and spillovers. 1985). those 33 to 38 million persons who have no health insurance are likely to increase in number (Sonnefeld.
thus assisting policymakers in the policy assessment phase of the policy-making process. A good example of evaluation is the type of analysis that contributes to the clarification. and economical manner. The specialized terminology and procedures of policy analysis must be translated into the languages of policy stakeholders. The combinations and permutations of policy alternatives. THE PROCESS OF POLICY COMMUNICATION Policy analysis is the beginning. To be sure. organizing. interdependent. and even when policy analysis is utilized. as contrasted with policy memos. simplifying. and summarizing information. and establish a basis for restructuring problems. Analysts must be able to organize information in a coherent. and length. 1991). Translation. recommendations for actions that will contribute to a solution of the problem. there is often a large gap between the conduct of policy analysis and its utilization in the policy-making process. identification and evaluation of alternative solutions to the problem. C Synthesis . Potential solutions for a problem are often broad in scope. 1990. Organization. Policy-Relevant Documents The knowledge and skill appropriate for conducting policy analysis are distinctly different from those needed to develop policy-relevant documents. In fact. criteria. a detailed exposition of theoretical concepts and analytical and statistical routines can be incorporated in appendices to policy issue papers and other backup documents. content. diagnosis of the scope. Policy issue papers. In such cases. Analysts typically work with hundreds of pages of previously published reports. In many cases this requires the conversion of abstract theoretical concepts and complex analytical and statistical routines into ordinary language and arguments employed by nonexperts. as well as the creation and critical assessment. and causes of the problem. and tables of statistical series. logically consistent. translating. 1991). this information must be synthesized into documents ranging from a maximum of three pages (policy memoranda) to 10 to 20 pages in length (policy issue papers). they typically have certain common elements: overview or summary. newspaper and journal articles. documents conveying usable knowledge--requires knowledge and skills in synthesizing. On the basis of guidelines for triangulation. Ryscavage. an erosion of the middle class. thus accentuating a marked increase in income inequality. and debate of values by challenging the dominant mode of technical reasoning which underlies environmental policies in the European Community and other parts of the world (Funtowicz and Ravetz. this does not guarantee better policies. Information also must be synthesized when preparing summaries of policy issue papers (executive summaries) or materials appropriate for the media (news releases). Monitoring not only results in conclusions about the extent to which problems have been alleviated. of policy-relevant knowledge. copies of existing and "model" legislation. and Welniak. and a decline in the standard of living in the last twenty years (Green. the quality of policy analysis is essential to potential improvements in policies and their outcomes. other analysts and staff specialists). and likely outcomes can easily exceed one hundred. But good policy analysis is not necessarily utilized by intended beneficiaries. critique. tables and graphs placed in the body of the policy issue paper and technical appendices.What is Policy Analysis? 7 experienced a decline. severity. Simplification. notes summarizing interviews with key informants or stakeholders. alternatives may be simplified by reducing the larger set to a smaller set of major or strategic options displayed in the form C C C . displaying. not the end. background of previous efforts to solve the problem. The development of policy-relevant documents--that is. Evaluation Evaluation yields policy-relevant knowledge about discrepancies between expected and actual policy performance. Although "document triangulation" means that policy documents vary in style. it also may contribute to the clarification and critique of values driving a policy. aid in the adjustment or reformulation of policies. This is why policy analysis has been defined as the communication. of efforts to improve the policy-making process and its outcomes. and complex. usually include additional elements--for example. Since the audience may also include experts on the problem (for example.
and other source documents. the use of policy-relevant knowledge is an aspect of collective decisions--that is. and recommendations of multiple policy issue papers. 1980. Weiss and Bucuvalas. News releases. and legislatures.What is Policy Analysis? 8 of a matrix (Goeller. Scope of knowledge used. while the use of a particular policy recommendation is C C . 302-13.7 Under these constraints policymakers are far more likely to read an executive summary or condensed memorandum than a full policy issue paper. 1983). 99-136). usually summarize the conclusions and recommendations of a major policy issue paper or report. Policymakers with crowded agendas operate under severe time constraints that limit their reading to no more than a few minutes every day. 1977. the process of knowledge utilization constitutes an aspect of individual decision making (individual use) (MacRae and Wilde. bureaus. benefits. or legitimize preferred formulations of problems and solutions by invoking the authority of experts (symbolic use). Summaries . 1986. Conceptual and behavioral uses of policy-relevant knowledge occur among individual and collective users. 1988). A policy issue paper typically addresses many of the following questions: In what ways can the policy problem be formulated? What is the scope and severity of the problem? To what extent does it require public action? If no action is taken. "The use of "ideas in good currency" is general in scope (general use). it should be noted. 199-211. 1979). 1986. they are typically asked to address a smaller set of these questions that have arisen in one or several phases of the policy-making process--for example. Rich. 1983b. and Stambaugh. Knorr. are less frequently requested than short policy memoranda or policy briefs ranging from one to several pages in length. By contrast. however. research reports. Policy analysis is used by individuals as well as collective entities--for example. requires that policymakers use such knowledge. 201-23). questions about the future costs. The improvement of policies. The simplification of complex quantitative relationships also can be accomplished by selecting and presenting in ordinary language cases that typify quantitative profiles (Brunner. The use of policy analysis has cognitive as well as behavioral effects. agencies. The scope of knowledge utilized by policymakers ranges from the specific to the general. The visual display of quantitative information--bar charts. Uses of Policy-Relevant Knowledge The aim of policy analysis is to improve policies by creating. in turn. C Visual displays . Policy issue papers. critically assessing. The availability of advanced. Policy memoranda and briefs nevertheless draw on and synthesize the substance. and availability of health care which arise in phases of policy formulation or agenda setting. 1975. and if so. user-friendly computer graphics 6 has increased dramatically the capacity for effective visual communication. When using policy analysis involves gains (or losses) in the expected utility of knowledge for decision making. 1977. C Composition of users. Morrison. C The most comprehensive and detailed document that may be developed by the analyst is the policy issue paper. Dery. Knott and Wildavsky. 120-33. how is the problem likely to change in coming months or years? Have other units of government addressed the problem. 165-82). when the process of utilization involves public enlightenment or collective learning. histograms. Skills in preparing summaries are essential for effective policy communication. sociodemographic maps–is an essential tool of policy communication (Tufte. a complex process that stems from the intersection of three major dimensions of knowledge utilization (Dunn. pie charts. line graphs. 1977. what were the consequences? What goals and objectives should be pursued in solving the problem? What major policy alternatives are available to achieve these goals and objectives? What criteria should be employed to evaluate the performance of these alternatives? What alternative(s) should be adopted and implemented? What agency should have the responsibility for policy implementation? How will the policy be monitored and evaluated? Analysts are seldom requested to provide answers to all these questions. Conceptual effects include the use of policy analysis to think about problems and solutions (conceptual use). conclusions. 1981. and communicating policy-relevant knowledge. Effects of use. behavioral effects involve the use of policy analysis as a means or instrument for carrying out observable policy-making activities or functions (instrumental use) (Caplan. Instead. By contrast. 1984). policies (collective use) (Weiss.
). IL: University of Illinois Press. Dunn and Rita Mae Kelly (eds. is not part of some fatuous plan to establish a "technocratic" elite which. it should be emphasized. scope--provide a basis for assessing and improving the practice of policy analysis and its impact on the policy-making process. 1986 "Case-wise policy information systems: redefining poverty. and Kenneth J. New Brunswick. These three dimensions of knowledge use are interdependent. KS: University Press of Kansas. 10 of Policy Studies Review Annual. and Donald T. 1984. 1. promote reflective individual and collective learning as a vehicle for improving public policy. it seems more than a little doubtful that moves toward technocratic political domination could be accommodated by the cognitive impairments. critically assessing." Policy Sciences 19:201-23. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. Kingdon." Pp. Ronald D. 1984. Campbell. seeks to replace the judgments of elected and appointed officials and the public they are obligated to serve. Inc.. A. Urbana. 57. Dery. 1976b). 734-49. 1990). 1985 Social Science and Social Policy. Brewer. 315-33 in E. Cook. MI: Institute for Social Research. New York: Praeger. Andrea Morrison. NJ: Transaction Publishers. Brunner. REFERENCES Anderson. tangled systems of interpretation. Knowledge that varies in scope is used by individuals and collectives with effects that are conceptual as well as behavioral.. Quite apart from the desirability of limiting the political authority of policy analysts and other applied social scientists in avowedly democratic societies.) 1968 The Study of Policy Formation. and Roger Stambaugh 1975 The Use of Social Science Knowledge in Policy Decisions at the National Level. and communicating policy-relevant knowledge. Lawrence. IL: The Dorsey Press.). 1987. 1988 “Can we be scientific in Applied Social Research. In short. Gergen (eds. and organized anarchy which tend to characterize much policy-making today (March and Olsen. 1979. 155-97 in William N. and Peter de Leon 1983 Foundations of Policy Analysis . The Free Press a division of Macmillan. Paul 1962 Reason in Society. Mark (eds. Bauer. an aim designed to promote individual and collective learning through policy discourse and debate. Raymond A. CA: Sage Publications. Thomas D. Beverly Hills. disjointed decision processes. Gary. The intersections among these dimensions--composition. Homewood. On the contrary. Advances in Policy Studies Since 1950. Campbell 1979 Quasi-experimentation: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings. effects. Samuel Overman (ed. the aim of policy analysis is to facilitate improved policies by creating. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Donald T. Lane Shotland and Melvin M. Thomas D. 1992 "The policy movement as a policy problem. as members of one of the leading technical communities 8 in today's society (MacRae. pp. Nathan. suggests that policy analysis frequently has performed an informative and critical role rather than one of technocratic political guidance. invoking the authority of science to justify its position. Lindblom. Methodology and Epistemology for Social Science: Selected Papers. Caplan. The goal of improving the role of policy analysis.What is Policy Analysis? 9 specific (specific use) (Schon.” Pp. the historical evolution of the applied social sciences.). David 1984 Problem Definition in Policy Analysis . Cook. . J. Vol. D. 21-62. Center for the Utilization of Scientific Knowledge. Indeed. R. the vision of policy analysis that shapes this book is one in which policy analysts. 1975 Public Policy Making. Ann Arbor. 254-83). Chap. Diesing.
MA: Lexington Books. Utilization 5. 1: 120-33. Encyclopedia of Policy Studies . Pennsylvania House of Representatives (February). Ecological Economics . Fischer. Englewood Cliffs. and Lester B. Mary E. Dye." Luxembourg: Commission of the European Communities. 349-74 in William N. and standards in policy analysis. New Brunswick.). Thomas R. Boulder. 329-48 in William N. Values. Goeller. Hawkesworth.. CA: Sage Publications. Santa Monica. Peter Rothe (ed. 1:54. Knott. and Edward Welniak 1991 "Factors affecting growing income inequality: a decomposition. 2 July. Karin D. Challenging the Older Order: Towards New Directions in Traffic Safety Theory.). North Scituate. No. CA: The RAND Corporation. Dunn. University of Maryland. 1991 "A new scientific methodology for global environmental issues. 2nd ed. Charles A. Gary. Knorr. 831-66 in Stuart S. 1. Advances in Policy Studies Since 1950. Glenview. John W. 99-136 in Robert F. 1983a "Values. Diffusion. Lave. Lave 1990 "Barriers to increasing highway safety. Albany." Knowledge: Creation." Pp.. NJ: Transaction Publishers. Advances in Policy Studies Since 1950. 1971 A Pre-view of Policy Sciences . and Aaron Wildavsky 1981 "If dissemination is the solution. Alison Geist. Nagel (ed. New York: Marcel Dekker." Pp. MD: Bureau of Governmental Research. Gordon." Pp. and Gary Roberts 1987 The Role of Standardized Tests in Minority-Oriented Curricular Reform. Ravetz 1990 "Global environmental issues and the emergence of second order science. 77-94 in J. and Innovation. and Jerome R." Paper presented at the 66th Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association International. 1988 Theoretical Issues in Policy Analysis . Harold D. NJ: Prentice Hall. CO: Westview Press.) . Jones. 1977 "Policymakers' use of social science knowledge: symbolic or instrumental?" Pp. NJ: Transaction Publishers. NY: State University of New York Press. Paul Ryscavage.What is Policy Analysis? 10 Dunn. College Park. Rita Mae 1992 "Policy inquiry and a policy science of democracy. 1992 "Participatory expertise: toward the democratization of policy science. Diffusion. Kelly. Bruce F. 1984 Agendas. 165-82 in Carol H. Alternatives. Washington.. and Public Policies .). No." Pp.). William N. ethics. p. Dunn and Rita Mae Kelly (eds. Funtowicz. Utilization 1. William N. Policy paper prepared for the Legislative Office for Research Liaison. Lexington. . New Brunswick. Advances in Policy Studies Since 1950. New York: American Elsevier Publishing Co. NJ: Transaction Publishers. 3rd ed. 1983b "Measuring knowledge use." Pp. Gregg.). Charles O.." Pp. Kingdon. Green. Dunn and Rita Mae Kelly (eds. 1977 An Introduction to the Study of Public Policy. Beverly Hills. Thomas Preston. Silvio O. Jack. 1992 "Epistemology and policy analysis. Using Social Research in Public Policy Making. Seattle. 137-52 in Robert Costanza (ed. Rich (ed. 1978 Understanding Public Policy. Weiss (ed. Frank 1980 Politics.). MA: Duxbury Press. NJ: Transaction Books. New York: Columbia University Press. 293-328 in William N. what is the problem?" Pp. and Nathan Caplan 1979 "The caravan rolls on: Forty years of social problem research. Information Industries. Foresman and Co. New Brunswick. and Public Policy: The Problem of Methodology. Dunn and Rita Mae Kelly (eds. New Brunswick. 1988 A Framework for Evaluating Success in Systems Analysis . IL: Scott." Knowledge: Creation.). Directorate-General for Telecommunications. 1956 The Decision Process: Seven Categories of Functional Analysis . Lasswell.
. 1976a The Social Function of Social Science. 1983 The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Rich. Utilization 8. 2: 169-90. 3." Policy Analysis 3. Silverman. Sally T." Knowledge: Creation. MacRae. (Fall): 36-50. 1980 Social Science Research and Decision Making. 26-29. New York: Columbia University Press. NC: University of North Carolina Press. Chap. Weiss. No.. Wilde 1979 Policy Analysis for Public Decisions." Knowledge and Policy: The International Journal of Knowledge Transfer and Utilization 4." Pp. Lexington. Robert F. Lemieux. MA: Duxbury Press. and Johan P.. North Scituate:. New Haven. Daniel R. No. and Richard O. 1 (Fall). Charles E. CT: Yale University Press.)." Pp. Jr. Utilization 8. PA: University of Pittsburgh Press." The American Sociological Review 45: 302-13. 1986 "The circuitry of enlightenment.). Advances in Policy Studies Since 1950. 3 (March): 431-62. David 1971 The Theory of Organisations. CT: Graphics Press. . Rescher. Using Social Research in Public Policy Making. Dunn and Rita Mae Kelly (eds. Duncan. 1-27. 415-41 in William N. Donald A. New Haven.What is Policy Analysis? 11 Lindblom. Nicholas 1980 Induction. 1991 "Policy analysis and knowledge use. Bucuvalas 1980 "Truth tests and utility tests: decision makers' frames of reference for social science research. Chapel Hill. No. and Michael J.. Duncan. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. No. Ortony (ed. McKusick 1991 "Projections of national health expenditures through the year 2000. Waldo. Sonnefeld. Mason 1980 Creating a Dialectical Social Science." Health Care Financing Review 13. NJ: Transaction Publishers. and David K. New Haven. 3 (September): 734-49. Ian I. Weiss. Cheshire. Carol H." Pp. and John A.. 203. MA: Lexington Books. James G. Schon. Jeffrey A. Weiss (ed. Jr. Reidel. Olsen 1984 "The new institutionalism: Organizational factors in political life. Webber. No. Pittsburgh. 1987 "Building policy-related technical communities. 199-211 in Carol H. Edward R. Diffusion. 4.)." The American Political Science Review 78. Mitroff. 254-83 in A. Tufte. New Brunswick. Charles E. 1992 "The distribution and use of policy knowledge in the policy process. pp. MacRae. Dordrecht: The Netherlands: D. New York: Basic Books. 1979 "Generative metaphor: a perspective on problem setting in social policy. 1985 Policy Indicators: Links between Social Science and Public Debate. Diffusion. CT: Yale University Press. 2: 274-81." Knowledge: Creation. March. Carol H. CT: Yale University Press." Minerva 14. 1977 "Uses of social science information by federal bureaucrats: knowledge for action versus knowledge for understanding. pp.. 1990 Inquiry and Change: The Troubled Attempt to Understand and Shape Society. 1977 "Research for policy's sake: the enlightenment function of social science research. No. and David R. David J. Cohen 1979 Usable Knowledge: Social Science and Social Problem Solving. Lindblom. 1976b "Technical communities and political choice.
See Campbell. in contrast to communities of traditional discipline-bound social scientists. 1) call "essentialism. Methodology and Epistemology for Social Science. Rist of the U. career politicians and administrators. General Accounting Office reports on the basis of GAO surveys that policymakers read an average of 12 minutes daily. interact with laypersons to generate knowledge about such problems and their solutions. CT: Graphics Press. This point is widely misunderstood by policy-oriented social scientists. because we already need to have induction in hand to make any applicative use of it. 7. Mountain View. The joint satisfaction of necessary and sufficient conditions is what Cook and Campbell (Quasi-experimentation. The outstanding source on the methodology of graphic displays is Edward R. CA). The Visual Display of Quantitative Information (Cheshire. conduct and disseminate to potential users the results of research and analysis. and more recently. 1983). and Cook and Campbell. Probabilistic argumentation of itself is not a tool of sufficient power to underwrite the validation of induction.S. The position or location of an object is found by means of bearings from two or more fixed points or electronic signals a known distance apart. and subject the activities of the community to mutual quality control. Campbell. In a personal communication Ray C. 8. A technical community. 6. navigation. The standard of plausibly true beliefs rather than certain or even probabilistic knowledge. is a group of experts who address standard and ethical problems that arise in practice contexts. combined with a critical stance toward the applied social sciences and a corresponding positive orientation toward knowledge originating in practice. cartography. 4. 3. Chap. Quasi-experimentation. Lasswell uses the term policy sciences rather policy analysis . satellite tracking." a doctrine that is particularly inappropriate for policy analysis and other applied social sciences. The methodology of triangulation is analogous to practices employed in geodesic surveys. or organized policy advocates. 2. . 5. Among the excellent graphics software now available is Harvard Graphics (SPC Software.What is Policy Analysis? NOTES 12 1. has been a continuing emphasis in the history of contributions by Donald T. Tufte.
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