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•Slowdown in GDP growth •Balance of Payment •Index of Industrial Production •Market movements •Price Movements •Liquidity •Reer and Neer •Conclusion and Forecast
Slowdown in GDP growth
Rs In Crore
The GDP of Indian economy grew by mere 5.3% in the 3rd quarter of financial year 08-09, in sharp contrast to 8.9% growth in the similar period of corresponding year. The slowdown can be directly attributed to negative growth in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors.
• What is scary about a shrinking agricultural sector is that, though it contributes to less than 20 percent of GDP, over 70 percent of the population depends on it. • One of the major reasons for manufacturing falling is the automobile sector, which contracted sharply in the past few months on account of tight credit.
Balance of payment
US Million dollar
• Export growth turned negative during Q3 of 2008-09 for the first time after 2001-02 due to global economic slowdown. • The current account deficit at US$ 14.6 billion during Q3 of 2008-09 was the highest quarterly deficit since 1990. • For the first time since Q1 of 1998-99, the capital account balance turned negative during Q3 of 2008-09 mainly due to net outflows under portfolio investment, banking capital and short-term trade credit. • The foreign exchange reserves on BoP basis (i.e., excluding valuation) declined due to widening of current account deficit combined with net outflows under the capital account.
Sluggish Export growth remains a major concern US Million
dollar India’s merchandise exports during AprilNovember 2008 increased by 18.7 per cent while imports recorded a higher growth of 32.5 per cent, largely due to the rise in petroleum, oil and lubricants (POL) imports. The rise in oil imports was primarily due to the elevated international crude oil prices, while the volume of oil imports was moderate. Merchandise trade deficit during April-November 2008 widened to US $
Trade Deficit on tips and toes of Crude prices
US Million dollar The widening of trade deficit during AprilDecember 2008 could be attributed to higher import payments reflecting high international commodity prices, particularly crude oil prices during the first half of 2008-09. And then when crude oil prices have reduced
Index of Industrial Production
Index of Industrial production
Industrial growth showing signs of recovery
Growth started to slacken from the second half of 2007-08, which has continued since then. The slowdown in manufacturing was largely on account of food, textiles and metals. The electricity sector recorded higher growth on account of increase in power generation in nuclear and hydroSource: http://www.mospi.gov.in
Use based Classification
Growth rate of march Basic goods: 1.4% Capital goods: -8.2% Intermediate goods: -4.4% . Basic goods include mining and electricity sector. The performance of basic goods reflected subdued growth in electricity and a fall in production of phosphates fertilizers, steel and aluminum products, and
Use based Classification
Consumer goods -0.8% Consumer durables 8.3% Consumer Non-Durables -3.6% The factor that has slightly improved the IIP performance in January are consumer durables; consumer durables were -12.8% for the month of December, they have come in +2.5% for the month of January, so the excise cuts and the small changes in interest rates appear to have improved the output, appear to have improved demand and therefore improved output maybe the de-stocking of inventories
EQUITY MOVEMENT DIRECT RUPEE’S
Indian stock market posted its biggest historical downfall during the year 2008-09. While Indian rupee depreciated nearly 19 percent during the same period. A major chunk of FII selling of over $3 billion had taken place in October (2008) alone, which saw the Sensex going to its lowest level
Foreign Exchange Reserve
India’s Foreign exchange Reserve have peaked during the FY 08 to $316.171 billion due to heavy inflows entering into India. However Since Oct 2008, sudden fall have been seen mainly on account of Central Banks offloading dollars in Spot FX market in order to provide Foreign
Foreign Capital Inflows- Foremost Step to Study US Million
Foreign Capital inflows are of prime importance having an immediate impact on India’s Balance of Payment. Government of India has increased the ceiling of FIIs investment in the ‘Corporate Debt’ from the earlier cap at US $ 6.00 billion to now US $ 15.00 billion. This is also called the Corporate Bond (CB) investment. The yields are generally higher in case of CBs vis a vis GoI’s Bonds. The spreads are higher. FIIs flows will increase into Corporate Bonds as the
Crude Oil Prices and Inflation moves hand in hand
C e in d is h ke s ne to r hig i Sp rice ate n ar p re tio ye th fla 6 in 1 to d ru e
Corr = 0.74
The increase in inflation during March-August 2008 was mainly on account of some pass-through of high international crude oil prices to domestic prices as well as elevated levels of prices of iron and steel, basic heavy inorganic chemicals, machinery and machine tools, oilseeds/oil cakes, raw cotton and textiles. Inflation decelerated sharply as international energy and commodity prices
First Stimulus Package
• Govt. of India on 5th December 2008 announced the ‘First Stimulus’ Package. • RBI cut “Repo Rates” by 100 bpts to 6.50 %. • RBI announced a 100 bpts cut “ Reverse Repo Rates ” to 5.00 %.
Second Stimulus Package
• The ‘Second Stimulus’ Package was announced by RBI on Friday 2nd January 2009. • RBI cut key “ Repo Rate ” further by an aggressive 100 bpts to 5.50%. An eight year low and a surprise move by the RBI. • RBI announced a further 100 bpts cut in “ Reverse Repo ” rates to only 4.00 % now. An eight year low. • RBI in a surprise move slashed "CRR" by another 50 bpts to now at 5.00 % - a two year low. This adds further liquidity to the financial markets. RBI is worried that due to
Third Stimulus Package
• Govt. of India announced a surprise third ‘Stimulus Package’ on 24th February’09 cutting ‘excise duty’ and ‘service tax’ by 2.00 % on majority of bulk products and select services.
Results of cut in Rates.
• A cut in reverse repo rates will discourage banks from parking surplus funds with RBI through the liquidity adjustment facility and encourage them to boost lending to the commercial sector. • The cut in “ Repo Rates ” signals commercial banks in India to lower their PLR for corporate and individual customers. A direction to the economy – Interest rates are going to be lowered by the commercial banks. • The central bank has also lowered the cash reserve ratio, or the proportion of deposits that banks set aside, by another 400 basis points to inject Rs 1,60,000 crore into the system.
Key Policy Rates
Repo rate- 4.75% Reverse Repo- 3.25% CRR- 5% Through the cut in rates, RBI has provided Rs 3,88,000 crore of primary liquidity to the system.
The Volumes of CBLO is high mainly because it has less regulation then call market. No CRR has to be kept aside and Mutual funds, Primary dealers, Insurance company and other banks can also participate in CBLO. CBLO is regulated by CCIL whereas Call market depends upon
Banks Borrow at 4.47% in call money market Spread of 28 basis point Park their funds in reverse repo at 4.75% RBI
Lend at 0.38%
Park at 3.5%
Banks make profit by this arbitrage around 3.12%
Government Financing through T Bills
The Central Government borrows funds to finance its 'fiscal deficit'. The market borrowing of the Central Government is raised through the issue of dated securities and 91, 182 or 364 days treasury bills either by auction or by floatation of loans.
Spread shrinks on improved risk appetite
If market condition is bad, Risk appetite would be low. Corporat Governme Sell e Buy nt -4 at 5 at 1
Sell at 15
Buy at 5 Net gain of 6
6 Currency REER And Nominal Exchange Rate
The 6-currency tradebased REER which stood at 112.16 in April 2008, indicating an overvaluation of 12.2 per cent, gradually declined to 100.07 in February 2009 mainly on account of significant depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar and against other major currencies like the euro, the Japanese yen and the
Conclusion And Forecasting
• Foreign capital inflow from Mar to May is $5.5 billion • India’s foreign exchange reserves went up by $4.24 billion to $255.94 billion during the week ended May 15, 2009, mainly due to revaluation of currencies. • Foreign currency assets increased on account of the appreciation of euro, sterling and yen against the US dollar held in the reserve. • Liquidity is sufficient to pay for imports • As cement, automobiles and steel sectors have improved so we can say that
• The Indian rupee has lost close to 25 percent of its value in less than a year, yet its exports have been falling consistently month-on-month since August 2008. • The slowdown in international demand is forcing exporters to give discounts to buyers denting their profits. • Also, as most exporters had hedged around 3040 per cent of their receivables when the rupee was stronger, the recent fall in the rupee may not prove much lucrative. • Hence, Slowdown in Export resulting in threat to Forex Reserve
• Crude oil prices have remained stable for nearly 2 months ranging between $50 to $65/ barrel, so there is no direct threat to inflation. Oil rose towards $62 on 22nd May 2009. • Demand for crude oil is moderate
• Hence we have concluded that USD/INR would be stable at Rs 44 for the 1st quarter for 2009-10.