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100313 NYC Mayor Poll Bp

100313 NYC Mayor Poll Bp

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Published by Celeste Katz
100313 NYC Mayor Poll Bp
100313 NYC Mayor Poll Bp

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Published by: Celeste Katz on Oct 03, 2013
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Maurice Carroll, Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 582-5334 Rubenstein Associates, Inc.

Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-

FOR RELEASE: OCTOBER 3, 2013

DE BLASIO LANDSLIDE BURIES LHOTA IN NEW YORK CITY, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; VOTERS WANT INSIDER FOR NEXT POLICE COMMISSIONER
Public Advocate Bill de Blasio’s landslide is picking up speed in the New York City mayoral race and threatens to bury Republican Joseph Lhota 71 – 21 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion has 2 percent. There is a small gender gap and a larger racial gap: White voters support de Blasio 55 – 40 percent while black voters back the Democrat 90 – 6 percent, with Hispanic support at 79 – 10 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Only 5 percent of voters remain undecided, but 11 percent of voters who name a candidate say there is “good chance” they will change their mind in the next five weeks. Among de Blasio voters, 38 percent are “very enthusiastic” and 49 percent are “somewhat enthusiastic.” Among Lhota backers, 26 percent are “very enthusiastic” and 54 percent are “somewhat enthusiastic.” By a 69 – 19 percent margin, New York City voters have a favorable opinion of de Blasio. Lhota has a negative 26 – 36 percent favorability, with 33 percent who haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion. For Carrion, 73 percent don’t know enough to form an opinion. “These numbers say Public Advocate Bill de Blasio’s kids can start arguing over who gets the best bedroom in Gracie Mansion,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The flurry of negative headlines about name changes, the Sandanista visit, the Cuban honeymoon don’t seem to have any effect.” -more-

Quinnipiac University Poll/October 3, 2013 – page 2 “It’s a new city demographically and de Blasio captures it. His primary-election coalition, with huge support among black and Hispanic voters, holds in this poll taken after primary-day opinions had time to settle in,” Carroll added. New York City likely voters say 55 – 26 percent that de Blasio will do a better job than Lhota keeping them safe and say 63 – 18 percent that the Democrat will do a better job improving the public schools. If de Blasio is elected, taxes will go up, 35 percent say, while 7 percent say taxes will go down and 46 percent say they won’t change. If Lhota is elected, taxes will go up, 37 percent say, while 4 percent say they will go down and 43 percent say they will stay the same. “There’s a note of realism, or cynicism, when voters contemplate taxes. Voters think they’ll either go up or stay the same whoever is elected,” Carroll said. The police stop and frisk tactic is excessive and harasses innocent people, 51 percent of voters say, while 41 percent say it is an acceptable way to keep the city safe. White voters support stop and frisk 56 – 37 percent while opposition is 67 – 24 percent among black voters and 54 – 36 percent among Hispanic voters. But 62 percent of New York City voters say they want the next police commissioner to come from the ranks of the New York Police Department, while 24 percent want a “fresh face” from outside the NYPD. There is general agreement among men, women, black, white and Hispanic voters on this question. “Stop and frisk remains a racially divisive issue. But, if voters think that practice means the cops misbehave, everyone, white, black and Hispanic, still would like the next commissioner to be an NYPD veteran,” Carroll said. From September 25 – October 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,198 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

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1. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat, Joe Lhota the Republican, and Adolfo Carrion, the Independence Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward de Blasio, Lhota, or Carrion? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp de Blasio Lhota Carrion SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 71% 21 2 1 5 9% 79 3 8 87% 8 1 4 61% 30 3 6 67% 25 2 5 75% 17 2 1 5 55% 40 2 1 3 90% 6 1 2 79% 10 4 8

COLLEGE DEG Yes No de Blasio Lhota Carrion SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 68% 25 2 1 5 74% 18 2 1 6

ANNUAL HSHOLD INC <50K 50-100 >100K 77% 14 2 1 6 72% 20 1 6 65% 31 1 3

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 79% 13 3 5 74% 20 1 1 4 68% 25 2 4

STOP AND FRISK Q12 Excssv Accptbl de Blasio Lhota Carrion SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 87% 6 2 1 4 52% 41 2 5

TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat, Joe Lhota the Republican, and Adolfo Carrion, the Independence Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward de Blasio, Lhota, or Carrion? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 de Blasio Lhota Carrion SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 71 21 2 1 5 66 25 2 1 6

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? LIKELY VOTERS............... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Lhota deBlasio Def vote for cand Unlikely to change Good chance change DK/NA 77% 10 11 2 70% 9 19 2 79% 11 8 2

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1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? LIKELY VOTERS............... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Lhota deBlasio Very enthusiastic 35% Somewht enthusiastic 50 Not so enthusiastic 9 Not enthus at all 4 DK/NA 2 26% 54 15 4 1 38% 49 8 4 2

2. Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 69% 19 11 2 23% 65 11 1 81% 8 10 1 57% 28 14 1 68% 22 8 1 69% 15 14 2 55% 34 10 1 86% 3 10 2 70% 12 17 1

TREND: Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 69 19 11 2 63 21 14 2

3. Is your opinion of Joe Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 26% 36 33 4 77% 6 17 15% 43 38 4 35% 34 27 4 34% 37 25 3 19% 35 40 6 43% 33 22 3 8% 45 43 5 14% 31 45 9

TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 26 36 33 4 30 35 32 3

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4. Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 10% 14 73 2 6% 19 75 12% 14 72 2 8% 14 77 2 11% 17 69 3 10% 12 76 2 6% 11 81 2 14% 17 66 3 19% 10 66 4

TREND: Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 10 14 73 2 9 10 78 3

5. Do you think Bill de Blasio is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Liberal Conservative About right DK/NA 27% 2 61 10 76% 1 13 11 14% 2 76 8 43% 3 45 10 34% 4 56 6 21% 1 66 13 45% 1 45 8 7% 1 84 7 16% 3 64 16

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Liberal Conservative About right DK/NA 34% 1 58 6 21% 3 64 13

ANNUAL HSHOLD INC <50K 50-100 >100K 17% 3 68 12 27% 2 63 8 41% 1 55 3

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 21% 2 69 8 25% 3 66 6 30% 2 58 11

6. Do you think Joe Lhota is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Liberal Conservative About right DK/NA 5% 39 27 29 5% 12 70 13 6% 43 17 34 3% 40 37 20 5% 43 31 21 5% 35 24 36 3% 37 42 17 8% 42 15 36 7% 30 14 49

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Liberal Conservative About right DK/NA 2% 48 29 20 8% 30 25 37

ANNUAL HSHOLD INC <50K 50-100 >100K 8% 29 24 39 5% 45 27 23 2% 50 32 16

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 6% 33 29 31 6% 44 22 28 5% 39 30 26

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7. Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job - keeping you and your family safe? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp de Blasio Lhota DK/NA 55% 26 19 8% 78 14 69% 13 18 37% 41 22 51% 31 18 58% 22 20 36% 44 19 80% 9 11 62% 15 22

COLLEGE DEG Yes No de Blasio Lhota DK/NA 50% 32 18 59% 21 20

ANNUAL HSHOLD INC <50K 50-100 >100K 61% 19 20 55% 28 18 47% 36 17

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 68% 20 13 57% 25 18 51% 30 19

TREND: Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job keeping you and your family safe? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 de Blasio Lhota DK/NA 55 26 19 50 27 23

8. Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job - improving the public schools? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp de Blasio Lhota DK/NA 63% 18 19 9% 67 24 78% 8 14 51% 24 25 59% 23 18 66% 14 20 47% 31 21 84% 6 10 69% 11 20 HvKids InPubSch 70% 11 19

COLLEGE DEG Yes No de Blasio Lhota DK/NA 63% 19 18 63% 17 19

ANNUAL HSHOLD INC <50K 50-100 >100K 67% 16 17 65% 17 18 61% 24 16

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 73% 10 17 68% 17 15 58% 22 20

TREND: Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job improving the public schools? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 de Blasio Lhota DK/NA 63 18 19 61 17 21

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9. If Bill de Blasio is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Go up Go down Stay about the same DK/NA 35% 7 46 13 73% 16 11 23% 9 53 15 50% 3 40 7 40% 7 44 10 30% 7 47 16 47% 2 41 10 21% 8 57 13 25% 15 41 19

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Go up Go down Stay about the same DK/NA 41% 4 47 9 29% 10 45 17

ANNUAL HSHOLD INC <50K 50-100 >100K 25% 12 48 14 35% 4 52 9 49% 3 41 8

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 26% 15 47 11 34% 6 49 10 37% 5 44 14

TREND: If Bill de Blasio is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 Go up Go down Stay about the same DK/NA 35 7 46 13 36 6 46 11

10. If Joe Lhota is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Go up Go down Stay about the same DK/NA 37% 4 43 16 14% 8 65 12 42% 3 38 18 33% 8 51 8 35% 6 48 12 38% 3 39 19 24% 4 59 13 51% 7 27 15 40% 2 30 27

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Go up Go down Stay about the same DK/NA 30% 2 55 12 42% 6 32 19

ANNUAL HSHOLD INC <50K 50-100 >100K 40% 6 34 20 41% 2 44 13 31% 6 56 7

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 33% 7 49 11 41% 4 41 15 34% 4 45 17

TREND: If Joe Lhota is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 Go up Go down Stay about the same DK/NA 37 4 43 16 36 5 44 15

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11. Do you think the next police commissioner should: A) Come from the ranks of the New York City Police Department, or B) Be a fresh face from outside the New York City Police Department? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp A) From NYPD ranks B) Outside NYPD DK/NA 62% 24 14 86% 6 8 59% 26 15 60% 28 12 62% 25 14 62% 23 15 63% 18 19 59% 32 9 65% 24 11

COLLEGE DEG Yes No A) From NYPD ranks B) Outside NYPD DK/NA 58% 24 18 65% 24 11

ANNUAL HSHOLD INC <50K 50-100 >100K 60% 28 12 69% 21 10 59% 23 18

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 59% 38 4 67% 22 11 59% 22 19

STOP AND FRISK Q12 Excssv Accptbl A) From NYPD ranks B) Outside NYPD DK/NA 51% 33 16 77% 12 11

12. As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you think stop and frisk is excessive and innocent people are being harassed, or do you think stop and frisk is an acceptable way to make New York City safer? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Excessive Acceptable DK/NA 51% 41 8 12% 82 6 59% 32 9 44% 48 8 48% 45 8 53% 38 9 37% 56 7 67% 24 10 54% 36 10

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Excessive Acceptable DK/NA 53% 40 7 49% 42 9

ANNUAL HSHOLD INC <50K 50-100 >100K 51% 39 11 54% 40 6 49% 46 5

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 61% 30 9 58% 37 6 43% 48 9

TREND: As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you think stop and frisk is excessive and innocent people are being harassed, or do you think stop and frisk is an acceptable way to make New York City safer? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 03 Sep 19 2013 2013 Excessive Acceptable DK/NA 51 41 8 55 39 6

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