6A

month

demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

20
18
21
25
24
27
22
30
23
20
29
22

3 bulan
12 bulan

actual
demand

9A
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

10A

19.66667
21.33333
23.33333
25.33333
24.33333
26.33333
25
24.33333
24
average

5.333333
2.666667
3.666667
-3.33333
5.666667
-3.33333
-5
4.666667
-2
0.925926

Moving
Average
Forecast

ESF

alfa = 0.1
50
51
46
49

mean absolute
error

6B

month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

5.333333333
2.666666667
3.666666667
3.333333333
5.666666667
3.333333333
5
4.666666667
2
3.962962963

23.66667
23.41667

27
26
32
41
28
30.8
33
35
32.06 33.66667
43
35.342 34.66667
47 38.8394 35.33333
28 35.58758 41.66667
38 36.31131 39.33333
average

Demand Set 1
1
2
3

mean AF

average
forecast
error

50.1
49.69
49.621

alfa = 0.5
50.5
48.25
48.625

mean Absolute
Deviation
metode
(metode MAF) ESF

9B

28.33333
28.23333
30.26333
34.08433
37.95903
34.97132

1.333333333
2.94
8.333333333
7.658
11.66666667
8.1606
13.66666667 7.58758
1.333333333 1.688694
7.266666667 5.606975

average
forecast error
alfa = 0.1
0.9
-3.69
-0.621

ESF

average
forecast
error alfa MAD (alfa MAD (alfa
= 0.5
= 0.1)
= 0.5)
0.5
-2.25
0.375

0.9
3.69
0.621

0.5
2.25
0.375

73 59.443359 0.000953 1.26135 12.525169 1.54688 -19.297296111 13.57174457 -26.5327 23.798645 2.93435 0.72656 8.4413 -40.05582772 3.95459 12.02671 27.05459 24.90829 average 24.3 27.79914268 -1.6468869 -26.000952577 1.79865 -2.93163324 30.80745 50.77832 -3.90625 24.892162 1.27 30.113281 3.83217 50.57458 31.751043 1.11328 52.27 30.75 8.57174 26.167825 3.77832 48.8125 51.13068 59.843 33.131292 -1.55661 50.866882 5.61457 51.366833 27.89705 50.75 8.872694 6.7266 -8.89932 0.080772 1.4413 40.38916 1.7 55.10784 49.934354 1.50735 50.63842 50.36328 27.48019 49.19255 34.19537708 33.18542 48.59729 0.93435 average 4.1875 0.61457011 33.9063 24.55664 51.75437 13.47584 35.668068 50 77 83 90 22 10 80 16 19 27 79 73 88 15 21 85 22 88 75 14 16 50 52.47583937 -35.046718 4.866882487 5.38916 50.02671 46.8921619 -1.89717 26.185424986 -2.52271 45.47729 -30.872694429 -6.19538 33.0094 Demand Set 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 .90625 49.11712 50 63.8125 20.167825185 3.843 -33.35311 48.45313 50.73367 5.09375 -2.1240616 0.5 9.375 -29.47483 51.00871 50.93466 -18.8411 1.26135 33.73367 5.36158 36.26633 69.62398 20.751042667 -1.363281 0.181641 25.443386025 -5.89717 53.157 55.625 51.262585 1.18164 25.54688 19.90829 17.5 9.1875 0.0267077 -27.00095 50.773438 1.8125 30.050339 4.22656 49.86688 49.131292 1.47729 30.93163 30.4178 35.2614 -12.25 81.4413 50.59729 -0.92404 44.41780179 35.65699 3.4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 55 52 47 51 48 56 51 45 52 49 48 43 46 55 53 54 49 50.519806 3.59729 48.89932 45.050339 4.9083 -1.09082 63.492651139 0.37602 54.12406 51.92403693 -17.80462 54.89717 26.185425 2.5745775 -31.375 29.86871 50.53267 23.93466 18.72656 27.45313 35.5 73.124062 2.09375 2.8125 -20.52416 50.519805761 3.80542 0.81658 28.899323 0.33847 50.8166 -12.61457 33.34301 50.66153 22.008709 0.1307 25.36158055 -36.53267 64.262585 1.66153009 22.11328 3.19458 49.453125 0.90625 55.77832 3.92404 17.366833 -27.24896 50.897054 5.13068 25.08077 49.95459 12.65699 -3.8411 1.008709 0.57174 47.90918 9.06534 40.87269 49.1589 50.80542 -0.45313 0.94966 50.79865 45.62397839 20.492651 0.89705429 5.799143 1.64689 26.525169 1.20086 50.38916 1.4178 52.57458 47.63317 41.790583 3.11711975 -1.36328 -0.90918 9.3 27.773438 -1.443386 5.81658 12.73742 52.04541 75.192547 -34.93163 48.443359 -0.18164 53.11712 29.080771588 -1.

66666667 13.959033 3.9 25.7 average Moving Average Forecast 33 33.1 24 25.33333 41.66667 39.7 27.1 -3.9 23.3 25 21.66667 34.333333333 8.3 4.333333333 7.3 6.9 6.3 -4.demand average with weigth 20 18 21 25 24 27 22 30 23 20 29 22 20 23.33333 average average forecast error 5 5 0.9 3 3 -3.9 3.7 0.73667 12.266666667 mean absolute error 6.91567 9.66667 35.7 3.333333333 11.1 7.6 4.9 0.66666667 1.028677 9.766667 12.081342 6C .3 -5 5 7.355556 mean Absolute Deviation metode (metode MAF) ESF 1.

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