You are on page 1of 103

A Research Project On Comparative analysis of financial performance of the power sector (RELIANCE POWER, TATA POWER AND SUZLON

ENERGY) with reference of stock price, liquidity trends & risk factors

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement For the award of degree Of


MASTERS OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION SESSION (2009-2011)
SUBMITTED TO:ASTT.PROFF. SUBMITTED BY:M.B.A- 4th.SEMESTER

VAISH COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING (Affiliated to M.D. University, Rohtak)

CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION - COMPANY PROFILE - TOPIC 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK -CONSTRUCT -VARIABLES 3. LITERATURE REVIEW 4. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE 5. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY i. RESEARCH DESIGN ii. iii. iv. v. vi. TYPE OF RESEARCH DESIGN TIME HORIZON STUDY SETTING

Pg. No.

FLOW CHART FOR SELECTION OF STATISTICAL TOOLS LIMITATION OF STUDY

HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING SAMPLE & SAMPLING DESIGN DATA COLLECTION ANALYTICAL TOOLS STATISTICAL TOOLS

6. RESULTS & FINDINGS 7. POLICY IMPLICATIONS 8. SUGGESTIONS 9. BIBLIOGRAPHY 10. ANNEXURES

INTRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY:Indias Power Generation capacity is 147403 MWDeficit is 20000 MW As of December 2008,the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) reports that Indias Power Generation Capacity is 147402.81 MW, up 8651 MW from 2007India continues to reman a power deficit countryCurrent Deficit is 20000 MW.NTPC, a leading PSU, is the biggest generator with 28333.99 MW from the Eleven Central Sector PSUsIt may be recalled that Reliance Power, in the Private Sector, has plans to generate 28000 MW by 2016By Then NTPC capacity would have surged pass 65000 MWThe Eleventh Five Year Plan 2007-2012 has a revised planned creation of 92000 MWBut with India targeting high single digit GDP Growth Rate over the next several years, the demand for power too will surgeIt will be only in the Twelth Five Year Plan 2012-2017 that the power demand and supply curve will crossMckinsey in their report Powering India-Road to 2017 estimates that the Power Demand will be 335000 MW in 2017 Interestingly last year, amidst great controversy and opposition .both in India and in USA, both countries signed a Nuclear Treaty to facilitate purchase of Uranium by India and setting up of Nuclear Reactors for Civil Purposes The Breakup on various parameters of Indias Installed Power Generating Capacity of 147402.81 MW makes interesting reading

INDIAS INSTALLED POWER GENERATING CAPACITY OF 147402.81 MW AT DEC 2008 By Mode Feed Coal Gas MW 77458.88 14734.01 % 52.55 10 By Sectors Sector State/UT MW % State Mah Andhra P By State MW %

76185.57 51.69

10563.54 7.17 7370.16 5

Diesel Nuclear Hydro Renewable

1199.75 4120 36647.76 13242.41 147402.81

0.81 Central PSUs 48970.99 33.22 Karnataka 2.80 24.86 8.98 100 147402.81 100 Private 22246.25 15.09 West Ben Gujarat Others

5838.52 5808.56 5701.30

3.96 3.94 3.87

112120.73 76.06 147402.81 100

Some Observations:

Thermal Power Generation is 2/3 rds of the Capacity Hydro Power Generation is 1/4 th of the Capacity Coal Based Plants at 52% are over half the Capacity Much Hyped ModeNuclear Power plants currently contribute less than 3% of Capacityeven with the implementation of the controversial Indo -USA Nuclear Treaty, this percentage will only marginally go up to @ 5% in the next Ten years

85% of Capacity is from the Public Sector The role of the Private Sector may assume more focus and it may contribute more in the future than the current 15% to Capacity

Of 28 States and 7 Union Territories, Maharashtra leads with over 7% of Capacity

An additional capacity of only 8651 MW was created in 2008To achieve Five Year Plan Targets,the incremental annual capacities should be close to 18500 MWotherwise it may take much longer than 2017 for the demand/supply curve to cross

Major Constraints in Developing the Power Generation Capacities have been


Government Equipment Procurement Procedures Project Implementation Delays

Saturation in Capacities of Engineering Companies in Setting up of Power Plant Infrastructure and delays in their increasing their Capacities

Delay in Allotment and Development of Coal Mineslargely on account of delays in land acquisitions and in obtaining government clearances and multiple mine allotted for the same mine

States Dominating the Distribution of PowerState Electricity Board ( SEB) Losses are legendaryit impedes the States capability to invest further to augment existing capacities and also discourages Private Investors from providing Capital to do so.Distribution Losses are reportedly a criminal 40% of generated and transmitted Power

If India has to Grow to be one of the top Three World Economies in the next Two decades, as is expected, Power Capacities have to scale up significantly and fast Government is well aware of this and has been introducing Power ReformsThe Electricity Act of 2003,CERC,Exchanges for Power Trading, Privatization to highlight a few Despite constraints, some due to coalition politics, the Power Sector has the Power to create Multifold Gains for those who invest in this sector as a Business or even just as an Investorbut these will play out over the Long TermTen Years and Beyond The power sector has registered significant progress since the process of planned development of the economy began in 1950. Hydro -power and coal based thermal power have been the main sources of generating electricity. Nuclear power development is at slower pace, which was introduced, in late sixties. The concept of operating power systems on a regional basis crossing the political boundaries of states was introduced in the early sixties. In spite of the overall development that has taken place, the power supply industry has been under constant pressure to bridge the gap between supply and demand.

Power Supply Units in India:

Thermal Power in India Hydropower is India Wind Power in India Solar Power in India Nuclear Power in India Biogas Production in India

POWER INFRASTRUCTURE IN INDIA:The power industry in India derives its funds and financing from the government, some private players that have entered the market recently, World Bank, public issues and other global funds. The Power Ministry India has set up Power Finance Corporation of India that looks after the financing of the power sector in India. The Power Finance Corporation Limited provides finance to major power projects in India for power generation and conversion, distribution and supply of power in India. Power Finance Corporation (PFC) Ltd India also looks after the installation of any new power projects as well as renovation of an existing power project India. The PFC in association with central electricity authority and the ministry of power facilitates the development in infrastructure of the power sector India. They have taken up construction of mega power projects that will answer to the power shortage in various states through power transmission through regional and national power grids.

FDI Inflows to Power:100% FDI is allowed in the power sector under the automatic route in India with the exception of Atomic Energy. Important aspects of FDI in the power sector of India are -

100 percent Foreign Direct Investment is allowed under automatic route in almost all the power sectors in India except the Atomic Energy Power projects involving generation and distribution tasks are allowed in all types and sizes

As per the Electricity Act 2003, trading in power is activated A duration of 30 years will given as a renewable license period Thermal power plants will get a return of 16 percent on equity and will get 68.5 percent PLF

The import of equipments will be entitled to 20 percent of import duty Power generating projects will have a five year tax holiday with five more years which will have a deduction of 30 percent taxable profits.

TATA POWER COMPANT LIMITED:-

Tata Power Company Limited (TPC), India's largest integrated Electric Power Utility in private sector with a reputation for reliability, incorporated in the year 1919 at Mumbai. TPC pioneered the generation of electricity in India nine decades ago. The core business of Tata Power Company is to generate, transmit and distribute electricity. The Company operates in two business segments: Power and Other. The Power segment is engaged in generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. The other segment deals with electronic equipment, project consultancy. The Tata-Ebasco Consulting Engineering Services' was established based on partnership with Ebasco India, Ltd for consulting engineering together with its two associated companies in the year 1961. In the year 1969, a new company under the name Chemical Terminal Trombay Ltd was formed in participation with other Tata Companies and Elephanta India Private Ltd to installation of storage tanks on a part of the Company's ash disposal area at Trombay and the laying of a pipeline connecting the storage tanks with the Mumbai Port Trust's pier at Pir Pau. TPC sets up its new manufacturing facility at Bangalore during the year 1980, for commercial production of electronic items designed by its R&D laboratory. The company constructed a new double circuit 22/110 KV transmission line in the year 1987 at North Mumbai from Borivli to Malad to meet the requirements of Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai besides meeting loads in Kandivili, Malad, etc. TPC has undertaken a 180 MW combined cycle plant at Trombay using gas turbines. In 1989, six new outlets for BEST at 33 KV from Carnac receiving stations were commissioned during the year. In the same year the company also associated with Siemens in the erection and commissioned the mechanical and electrical equipment.

VISION AND MISSION:Strong values are the base of any laudable mission and vision is vital to its realisation. Tata Power's fundamentals have always been very

clear in this direction.


Vision:-

To be the most admired Integrated Power and Energy Company delivering sustainable value to all stakeholders

VISION AND MISSION:-

Strong values are the base of any laudable mission and vision is vital to its realization. Tata Power's fundamentals have always been very clear in this direction. Mission :We will become the most Admired Company delivering sustainable value by:

Being the supplier and partner of choice Achieving excellence in safety, operations and project management Focusing on the culture of sustainability

Vision:- value to the stakeholders Ensuring growth and delivering


Caring for the community
To be among the top three wind energy companies in the world To be the most respected brand To be the best team and place to work at

Values:

To be thetransparency fastest growing profitable business Integrity: Honesty, fairness and in and our most conduct and transactions

Trust: Faith and belief in each other Care: Being concerned about the well being of all employees Collaboration: Excellence through teamwork, within employees and partners Being the supplier and partner of choice Achieving excellence in safety, operations and project Agility: Speedy, responsive and proactive, achieved through empowering management employees Focusing on the culture of sustainability Respect: Treat all stakeholders with respect and dignity Ensuring growth and delivering value to the stakeholders Excellence : Bettering standards continuously, with passion and pride Caring for the community

Mission:-

Values:SUZLON ENERGY LIMITED:An organization is built over the values it stands for. At Suzlon we have inculcated values that provide us the benchmark to carve our vision, develop our mission and lay a strong foundation to energize the corporate objectives. Suzlons values are an end-to-end cornerstone of all its commitments, endeavors and progress.

Suzlon Energy Limited (SEL) has its roots dating back to when it sets up in 10th April of

capacity of just 3 MW. Now Suzlon is a pioneer in providing end-to-end wind power solutions. The company's business model comprises the full spectrum of services including the development, manufacturing, marketing, EPC Project delivery and operations and maintenance of wind turbine generators around the world. The company has gone from strength to strength in just a decade of operations, installing over 3 Gigawatt of wind turbine capacity in projects around the world. The Company has, as a Reliance Power Limited (RPL) is part of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group and follow-up to its global expansion strategy, successfully entered into new markets such as it was incorporated in 17th January of the year 1995 as a private limited company under Spain, Nicaragua and Turkey with substantial orders, and consolidated its position in the name of Bawana Power Private Limited to develop, construct and operate power other important markets such as the US, Australia and Brazil with large and repeat projects domestically and internationally. The Company on its own and through orders, over the last year, Suzlon become a global corporation with operations across 5 subsidiaries is currently developing 13 medium and large sized power projects with a continents and many more countries. combined planned installed capacity of 28,200 MW, one of the largest portfolios of Det Norse Veritas (DNV) certifies Suzlon Group with the coveted ISO 9001/2 power generation assets under development in India. certificate in the year of 1997. In 1998, the company formed Suzlon Developers Pvt As at 1st February of the year 1995, the company's name was changed to Reliance Limited and Suzlon Wind Farm Services Pvt Limited; both are in under the group of the Delhi Power Private Limited. The Company had started a 3740 MW at site Natural Gas company. In the same year 1998, Suzlon bagged its first order of Ghodawat Pan Masala based Combined Cycle Power Plant at Dadri in the year 2003-04. In 23rd January of the Products in the state of Maharashtra. The Company made its debut entry in Maharashtra year 2004, again the name of the company was changed to Reliance EGen Private by commissioning its first Wind Turbine in Maharashtra at site: Vankhusavade, Dist Limited. Further, name of the company was changed from Reliance Egen Private Limited Satara. to Reliance Energy Generation Private Limited in 5th March 2004. The Company's status was converted into a public limited company through shareholder resolution in 19th March of the year 2004 and the name was further changed to Reliance Energy Generation Limited with effect from 19th March of the year 2004. In November of the year 2006, RPL had acquired 100% shareholding in Rosa Power Supply Company Limited. The acquired company, thus become the wholly owned subsidiary of the Company. During the year 2006-07, the company signed a Joint Communique with Government of Orissa to set up a 12000 MW coal based pithead power project at Hirma in Distt Jharsuguda in Orissa. As at 4th July 2007, the company got its present name as Reliance Power Limited. In January of the year 2008, the company had tapped the capital market with an initial public offering (IPO) of 260 million equity shares. During March of the year 2008, Reliance Power had entered into an agreement to buy a coalmine in Indonesia located in South Sumatra, valued at Rs 200 billion.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:The theoretical framework is the foundation on which project is based. It is logically developed, described & elaborated network association among variables deemed relevant to the problem situation & identified through some processes.

Construct: Volatility of Share prices of SUZLON ENERGY, RELIANCE POWER, TATA POWER Financial Performance of power sector SUZLON ENERGY, RELIANCE POWER, TATA POWER Degree of risk involved in different projects

Variables:Dependent Variables: Financial Performance of power sector(company consider) Profit After Tax (PAT) Net Worth

Independent Variables: Share price Risk Factor Liquidity trends

LITERATURE SURVEY:Once the area of interest is selected then the researcher should undertake extensive literature survey connected with the problem or the topic of interest.For this problem, the abstracting and indexing journals and published or unpublished bibliographic are the first place to go to. Academic journals, conference proceedings, government reports, books etc must be tapped depending upon nature of problem.

Conceptual literature:Conceptual literature is that which relates with concepts and theories. Help from different books should be taken for different concepts and theories.

Empirical literature:Empirical literature consists of study made by other in the same field. The published data in newspapers books & magazines available for discussion with people of organization. Such as: - Newspapers - Journals - Case Studies - Websites

Books & Magazines: Pandian Punithavathy, (2nd edition), Security analysis and portfolio management Vikas publishing house pvt LTD.(1) , PP 45-48: It explains the Govt. securities and the feature of Govt. securities. Bhole.L.M, (9th edition), Financial Institutions and Markets- Structure, Growth and Innovations (2), PP 179-214:- This book tells the benefit of investment in debt funds. Donald E. Fischer, (3th edition) Security Analysis and Portfolio Management, Kalyan Publishers (3), PP 79-92:- It tells the history of debt fund and debt schemes of mutual funds. Ronald J. Jordan, (4th edition) Security Analysis and Portfolio Management, New Delhi (4), PP 112-132: It explains the history of mutual funds, meaning of mutual funds and its type. Beri G.C., (4th edition), Marketing Research publishing house, New Delhi (5), PP 68-72: This book helped in understanding the different research designs and analytical tools used here. Gupta Shashi.k, (5th edition), Management Accounting, Kalyan Publishrs,New Delhi(6), PP 23.1-23.9 :- This book tells about the yield on money market securities Hooda R.P., (4th edition), Statistics for Business and Economics, V.K. publication 13 PP.88-92:- This text book helps me to understand the various methods of Calculation of multiple regressions and its interpretation.

Schaums (2004) Statistical outline, Tata McGraw Hill Publishing Company Limited14, PP. 45-53: The information regarding the statistical tools and their limitations in different fields the research is given in this section. This section explains why to use multiple regressions and what does correlation means what are the situations in which correlation can be used. Kothari, C.R, (2nd edition) Quantitative Techniques, New Age International Publishers, Ansari Road, Daryaganj, New Delhi-11000215, PP.117-132:

JOURNALS: Karmakar Madhusudan


(16)

APRIL JUNE 2009 ., Price Discoveries and

Volatility Spillovers in S&P CNX Nifty Future and its Underlying Index CNX Nifty, VIKALPA The Journal of Decision Makers, Volume 34, No. 2, , This article gave me information about the lead lag relationship in return and volatility between spot and future markets.

Mahakud Jitendera., Kumar Arun Misra

(17)

, APRIL 2009 Effects of

Leverage and Adjustment Costs on Corporate Performance Evidence from Indian Companies, Journal of Management Research, Volume 9, No. 1, This article gave researcher information about the leverage ratio of the Indian Companies that has increased significantly due to easy availability of various means of finance in globalization period. Siddiqui Saif.
(18)

, JANUARY MARCH 2009, Stock Market Integration :

Examining Linkage Between Selected World Markets VISION The Journal of Business Perspective , volume 13 , No. 1, This article gave researcher information about the interdependency among major world stock markets. Brav Omer (19), FEBRUARY 2009, Access to Capital, Capital Structure, and the Funding of the Firm, The Journal of Finance Volume IXIV, No. 1, this article gave researcher information that when compared with public counterparts, private firms almost exclusively on debt financing, has higher leverage ratios and tend to

avoid external capital market leading to a greater sensitivity of their capital structures to fluctuations in performance. Kaur Kuldip
(23)

, Determinants of Debt Equity Mix Analysis from Indian

Firms FINANCE INDIA, Volume XXII, No. 2, JUNE 2008 , PP 487 500, This article threw light on the fact that the corporate finance managers while deciding about the debt equity mix consider certain internal and external parameters which seem to influence the capital structure decisions of the firm.

Khan Masood Ahmad, Shahid Ashraf, Shahid Ahmad

(24)

. MARCH 2008,

Causality and Volatility in firm level stock returns and volume in India: Evidence from National Stock Exchange FINANCE INDIA volume XXII No.1, PP 99-110, This article gave researcher information about the co movement in stock return and volume change using NSE data.

Srivastava Sandeep, Yadav Surnedra, Jain P.K.

(25)

DECEMBER 2007 Effect

of derivative security on volatility A study in context of Indian stock market. FINANCE INDIA, volume XXI No.4,PP 1271- 1295 This article gave researcher information about the impact of introduction of derivatives securities on volatility of underlying stock and index.

Chittedi Reddy Krishna. 10 15,

(26)

JULY 2009, SENSEX- the Dancing Beauty of

Indian Stock Market INDIAN JOURNAL OF FINANCE VOLUME 3, No. 7, PP

This article gave researcher information about the stock exchange and its history.

Dr. Iqbal, Dr. T. Mallikarjunappa.

(27)

JULY 2009, Indian stock market

reaction to quarterly earnings information INDIAN JOURNAL OF FINANCE , VOLUME 3, No. 7, PP 43-50, This article helped researcher to understand the reaction of quarterly information on the stock exchange of India.

WEBSITES: http://money.rediff.com/companies31 this site provided me with balance sheets of

various companies. http://capitaline.com32, this website helped me to know about financial position of companies for my study.
myiris.com/shares/company/financial.php?icode... 34, this website helped me to know

about the various RATIO of companies for my study.


demonstrations.wolfram.com/SimulatingAssetPricesWithAGARCH11Model/
35

this

website helped me to know about GARCH Model for my study.


www.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/djam/djam.htm36, this website helped me to know

about SHARPE Model for my study.


www.sharpe1.com/sharpe/sharpe.nsf/Files/RMC2RMC3/.../311288B.pdf...37,

this

website helped me to know additional information related about SHARPE Model for my study.
www.statisticallysignificantconsulting.com/Anova.htm38, this website helped me to

know about ANOVA tools for my study.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES: PRIMARY OBJECTIVES:


To study the growth & return of various companies of Power sector. To find out the liquidity position of top companies of power sector. To study risk and return relationship associated with equity shares of these companies To study volatility in Share Price of various companies.

SECONDARY OBJECTIVES:
To study the share price movement of these companies To study the financial performance of the consider company on the basis of PAT, NET WORTH To check out the growth prospect of the companies by SHARPE MODEL.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:Research is a systematic and continuous method of defining a problem, collecting the facts and analyzing them, reaching conclusion forming generalizations. Research is defined as a scientific & systematic search for pertinent information on a specific topic. Research is an art of scientific investigation. Research is a systemized effort to gain new knowledge. It is a careful inquiry especially through search for new facts in any branch of knowledge. The search for knowledge through objective and systematic method of finding solution to a problem is a research.
THE RESEARCH PROCESS

1 OBSERVATIO N Broad area of research interest identified

3 PROBLEM DEFINITION Research Problem Delineated 4 THEORETICA L FRAMEWORK 5 GENERATION OF HYPOTHESE S 6 SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH DESIGN 7 DATA COLLECTION, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

2 PRELIMINARY DATA GATHERING Interviewing Literature Survey

Variables clearly identified and labelled

8 DEDUCTION Hypotheses substantiated ? Research question answered? 10 Report Present ation 11 Manag erial decisio n making

NO

Yes

9 Report writing

RESEARCH DESIGN: -

A research design is the game plan or blue print and specifications for conducting a research investigation. As stated by Julian Simon: There is never a single, standard, correct method of carrying out a piece of research. Do not wait to start your research until you find out the proper approach, because there are many ways to tackle a problem--some good, some bad, but probably several good ways. There is no single perfect design. A research method for a given problem is not like the solution to a problem in algebra. It is more like a recipe for beef stroganoff; there is no one best recipe.

Exploratory

Qualitative Research

Descriptive Causal

Quantitative Research Quantitative Research

METHODOLOGY AND DATA ANALYSIS: -

Research Design:-Descriptive Design Time Horizon: - Cross-Sectional Design Type of Investigation: - Causal Study Study Setting: - Contrived Setting Research Place: - Yamuna Nagar Sampling Design: - Judgment and Convenience Sampling. Data: - Secondary data

FLOW CHART: -

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY: -

Time Constraints
During our dissertation report, the time allotted to us was not sufficient to complete such a big report. So due time constraints I may not be able to give up to my fullest.

Resource Constraints
Being a student, I was not having sufficient resources for conducting the dissertation report.

Use of Statistical Tools


Being a student, the tools I have used in my study may not be sufficient for analyzing the performance of top two players of the telecom companies.

Chances of Errors
Chances of errors may be there since I have used secondary data for the study of my dissertation report.

HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT: There are two types of hypothesis: Null hypothesis Alternative hypothesis

Null hypothesis (H0): In test of hypothesis we always begin with an assumption or hypothesis this is called null hypothesis. The null hypothesis asserts that there is no significant difference between the sample static and the population parameter and whatever the observed difference is there, is merely due to fluctuations in sampling from same population. Alternative hypothesis (H1): Any hypothesis different then the null hypothesis is called an alternative hypothesis. The two hypothesis H0 & H1 are such that if one is accepted, the other is rejected.

HYPOTHESIS OF THE STUDY: H0: There is no significant impact of share prices on the PAT of the company. H1: There is significant impact of share prices on the PAT of the company. H0: There is no significant impact of Risk on the PAT of the company. H1: There is significant impact of Risk on the PAT of the company. H0: There is no significant impact of share prices on the Net Worth of the company. H1: There is significant impact of share prices on the Net Worth of the company. H0: There is no significant impact of Risk on the Net Worth of the company. H1: There is significant impact of Risk on the Net Worth of the company.

ANOVA: Variables:
PAT (Profit After Tax) Net Worth Risk Share Price

Suzlon Energy Limited: H0 :There Is No Significance Impact Of Risk On PAT


ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total a. Predictors: (Constant), risk b. Dependent Variable: pat Sum of Squares 417727.320 222985.098 640712.418 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 417727.320 222985.098 F 1.873 Sig. .402a

Interpretation
In the above table the value of sig. is greater than the standard significant level that is 5% So as a result we reject the null hypothesis & accept the alternate which symbolises the that predictors are quite significant. On the other hand if we compare the value of F with the table value then the same result can be concluded as to reject h0 the null hypothesis.

H0: There Is No Significance Impact Of Share Price On PAT

ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 143630.453 497081.966 640712.418 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 143630.453 497081.966 F .289 Sig. .686a

a. Predictors: (Constant), Shareprice b. Dependent Variable: pat

Interpretation
In the above table the value of sig. is greater than the standard significant level that is 5% so as a result we reject the null hypothesis & accept the alternate which symbolises the predictors are quite significant. On the other hand if we compare the value of F with the table value then the same result can be concluded as to reject h0 the null hypothesis.

H0: There Is No Significance Impact Of Share Price On Net Worth


ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 4923364.154 1396341.856 6319706.010 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 4923364.154 1396341.856 F 3.526 Sig. .312a

a. Predictors: (Constant), Shareprice b. Dependent Variable: Networth

Interpretation
In the above table the value of sig. is greater than the standard significant level that is 5% so as a result we reject the null hypothesis & accept the alternate which symbolises the predictors are quite significant. On the other hand if we compare the value of F with the table value then the same result can be concluded as to reject h0 the null hypothesis.

H0: There Is No Significance Impact of Risk on Net worth

ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total a. Predictors: (Constant), risk b. Dependent Variable: Net worth Sum of Squares 2176134.016 4143571.994 6319706.010 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 2176134.016 4143571.994 F .525 Sig. .601a

Interpretation
In the above table the value of sig. is greater than the standard significant level that is 5% so as a result we reject the null hypothesis & accept the alternate which symbolises the predictors are quite significant. On the other hand if we compare the value of F with the table value then the same result can be concluded as to reject h0 the null hypothesis.

Reliance power Limited: H0: There Is No Significance Impact Of Share Price On PAT

ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total a. Predictors: (Constant), shareprice b. Dependent Variable: pat Sum of Squares 9874.983 8327.381 18202.365 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 9874.983 8327.381 F 1.186 Sig. .473a

Interpretation
In the above table the value of sig. is greater than the standard significant level that is 5% So as a result we reject the null hypothesis & accept the alternate which symbolises the that predictors are quite significant. On the other hand if we compare the value of F with the table value then the same result can be concluded as to reject h0 the null hypothesis. H0 :There Is No Significance Impact Of Risk On PAT
ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total a. Predictors: (Constant), risk b. Dependent Variable: pat Sum of Squares 6299.247 11903.117 18202.365 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 6299.247 11903.117 F .529 Sig. .600a

Interpretation
In the above table the value of sig. is greater than the standard significant level that is 5% so as a result we reject the null hypothesis & accept the alternate which symbolises the predictors are quite significant. On the other hand if we compare the value of F with the table value then the same result can be concluded as to reject h0 the null hypothesis

H0 :There Is No Significance Impact Of Risk On Net Worth


ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total a. Predictors: (Constant), risk Sum of Squares 4288.153 1.209E8 1.210E8 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 4288.153 1.209E8 F .000 Sig. .996a

ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total b. Dependent Variable: networth Sum of Squares 4288.153 1.209E8 1.210E8 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 4288.153 1.209E8 F .000 Sig. .996a

Interpretation
In the above table the value of sig. is greater than the standard significant level that is 5% So as a result we reject the null hypothesis & accept the alternate which symbolises the that predictors are quite significant. On the other hand if we compare the value of F with the table value then the same result can be concluded as to reject h0 the null hypothesis. H0 :There Is No Significance Impact Of share Price On Net WORTH
ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total a. Predictors: (Constant), shareprice b. Dependent Variable: networth Sum of Squares 1.192E8 1729493.887 1.210E8 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 1.192E8 1729493.887 F 68.934 Sig. .076a

Interpretation
In the above table the value of sig. is greater than the standard significant level that is 5% So as a result we reject the null hypothesis & accept the alternate which symbolises the that predictors are quite significant. On the other hand if we compare the value of F with the table value then the same result can be concluded as to reject h0 the null hypothesis.

Tata Power Limited: H0 :There Is No Significance Impact Of Risk On PAT

ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total a. Predictors: (Constant), risk b. Dependent Variable: pat Sum of Squares 17112.500 12604.167 29716.667 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 17112.500 12604.167 F 1.358 Sig. .452a

Interpretation
In the above table the value of sig. is greater than the standard significant level that is 5% So as a result we reject the null hypothesis & accept the alternate which symbolises the that predictors are quite significant. On the other hand if we compare the value of F with the table value then the same result can be concluded as to reject h0 the null hypothesis.

H0 :There Is No Significance Impact Of Share Price On PAT


ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 12501.294 17215.373 29716.667 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 12501.294 17215.373 F .726 Sig. .551a

a. Predictors: (Constant), share price b. Dependent Variable: pat

Interpretation
In the above table the value of sig. is greater than the standard significant level that is 5% So as a result we reject the null hypothesis & accept the alternate which symbolises the that predictors are quite significant. On the other hand if we compare the value of F with the table value then the same result can be concluded as to reject h0 the null hypothesis. H0: There Is No Significance Impact of Risk on Net Worth

ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total Predictors: (Constant), risk Sum of Squares 1797408.000 2088600.000 3886008.000 Df 1 1 2 Mean Square 1797408.000 2088600.000 F .861 Sig. .524a

H0 :There Is No Significance Impact Of Share Price On Net Worth


ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 2075017.280 1810990.720 3886008.000 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 2075017.280 1810990.720 F 1.146 Sig. .478a

a. Predictors: (Constant), share price b. Dependent Variable: net worth

Interpretation
In the above table the value of sig. is greater than the standard significant level that is 5% so as a result we reject the null hypothesis & accept the alternate which symbolises the predictors are quite significant. On the other hand if we compare the value of F with the table value then the same result can be concluded as to reject h0 the null hypothesis.

DATA COLLECTION: After the research problem has been identified and selected the next step is to gather the requisite data. While deciding about the method of data collection to be used for the researcher should keep in mind two types of data VIZ. primary and secondary

1. Primary Data: All primary data is given by my mentor and also discussing

certain concepts with its employees. 2. Secondary data: It is the data, which has already collected by some organization for some purpose or research study. The data for my study has been collected from various. Secondary data means that data that are already available i.e. refers to data which has already been collected and analyzed by someone else. The sources used in this case are Books Journals Magazines Internet sources Newspapers

ANALYTICAL TOOLS RATIO ANALYSIS


FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:-

Financial analysis is the process of identifying the financial strengths and weaknesses of the firm and establishing relationship between the items of the balance sheet and profit & loss account. Financial ratio analysis is the calculation and comparison of ratios, which are derived from the information in a companys financial statements. The level and historical trends of these ratios can be used to make inferences about a companys financial condition, its operations and attractiveness as an investment. The information in the statements is used by Trade creditors, to identify the firms ability to meet their claims i.e. liquidity position of the company. Investors, to know about the present and future profitability of the company and its financial structure. Management, in every aspect of the financial analysis. It is the responsibility of the management to maintain sound financial condition in the company.

THE VIEW OF FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION OF THE RATIOS IS: Liquidity ratio Leverage ratio

Activity ratio Profitability ratio

LIQUIDITY RATIOS
Liquidity refers to the ability of a concern to meet its current obligations as & when there becomes due. The short term obligations of a firm can be met only when there are sufficient liquid assets. The short term obligations are met by realizing amounts from current, floating (or) circulating assets The current assets should either be calculated liquid (or) near liquidity. They should be convertible into cash for paying obligations of short term nature. The sufficiency (or) insufficiency of current assets should be assessed by comparing them with short-term current liabilities. If current assets can pay off current liabilities, then liquidity position will be satisfactory.

To measure the liquidity of a firm the following ratios can be calculated Current ratio Quick (or) Acid-test (or) Liquid ratio Absolute liquid ratio (or) Cash position ratio

(a) CURRENT RATIO: Current ratio may be defined as the relationship between current assets and current liabilities. This ratio also known as Working capital ratio is a measure of general liquidity

and is most widely used to make the analysis of a short-term financial position (or) liquidity of a firm.

Company Name Suzlon Energy Rpower Tata Power

March 07 1.49 0.44 2.25

March 08 1.46 12.60 2.04

March 09 0.82 27.23 2.10

Interpretation: This ratio indicates the current assets are fluctuating continuously and payment of current liabilities is also fluctuating. In the condition of SUZLON energy the current ration of company continuous decreasing from 1.49 to 0.82 that is not good situation for SUZLON energy. But in condition of RPOWER the current ratio is going upward. That is good for business. Because in the year 2008, 2009 they are totally concentrate on maintaining liquidity. So the current ratio in March 09 is 27.23

(b) QUICK RATIO: Quick ratio is a test of liquidity than the current ratio. The term liquidity refers to the ability of a firm to pay its short-term obligations

Quick ratio = Quick or liquid assets / Current liabilities

Company Name Suzlon Energy Rpower Tata Power

March 07 2.40 0.44 2.00

March 08 2.12 12.60 1.75

March 09 2.19 27.33 1.77

Interpretation: This ratio indicates the liquid assets are fluctuating continuously and payment of current liabilities is also fluctuating. In the condition of SUZLON energy the quick ratio of company continuous decreasing but in the year 09 that ratio is going down allot same as TATA POWER But in condition of RPOWER the quick ratio is going upward. That is good for business.

PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT)

March 07 Suzlon Energy Tata Power Reliance Power 1062.34 692 0.16

March 08 1520.01 877 75.89

March 09 394.43 922 189.69

Interpretation: But in condition of Tata power the PAT is going upward. That is good for business. Because in the year 2009 they are totally concentrate on increasing the profit. So the PAT in March 09 is 922 crore But in condition of Suzlon Energy the PAT is going downward. That is not good for business. Because in the year 2009 they are totally not concentrate on the profit. So the PAT in March 09 is going down up to 394 crore for 1520 crore. that is not good for business

Average Share Price

March 07 Suzlon Energy Tata Power Reliance Power 261.92 952.71 0.00

March 08 152.69 951.56 174

March 09 85.76 1236.34 154.26

NET WORTH

March 07 Suzlon Energy Tata Power Reliance Power 3701.58 4467 200.05

March 08 6947.66 6363 13542.68

March 09 6580.32 7185 13792.81

What Is GARCH?
GARCH stands for Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity. Loosely

speaking, you can think of heteroscedasticity as time-varying variance (i.e., volatility). Conditional implies a dependence on the observations of the immediate past, and autoregressive describes a feedback mechanism that incorporates past observations into the present. GARCH then is a mechanism that includes past variances in the explanation of future variances. More specifically, GARCH is a time-series technique that allows users to model the serial dependence of volatility. In this manual, whenever a time series is said to have GARCH effects, the series is heteroscedastic, i.e., its variances vary with time. If its variances remain constant with time, the series is homoscedastic.

Why Use GARCH?


GARCH modeling builds on advances in the understanding and modeling of volatility in the last decade. It takes into account excess kurtosis (i.e., fat tail behavior) and volatility clustering, two important characteristics of financial time series. It provides accurate forecasts of variances and covariances of asset returns through its ability to model timevarying conditional variances. Therefore, you can apply GARCH models to such diverse fields as:

Risk management Portfolio management and asset allocation Option pricing Foreign exchange The term structure of interest rates

You can find highly significant GARCH effects in equity markets for:

Individual stocks Stock portfolios and indices Equity futures markets

These effects are important in such areas as value-at-risk (VAR) and other risk management applications that concern the efficient allocation of capital. You can use GARCH models to examine the relationship between long- and short-term interest rates. As the uncertainty for rates over various horizons changes through time, you can also apply GARCH models in the analysis of time-varying risk premiums. Foreign exchange markets, which couple highly persistent periods of volatility and tranquility with significant fat-tail behavior , are particularly well-suited for GARCH modeling.

GARCH Limitations
Although GARCH models are useful across a wide range of applications, they do have limitations:

GARCH models are only part of a solution. Although GARCH models are usually applied to return series, financial decisions are rarely based solely on expected returns and volatilities.

GARCH models are parametric specifications that operate best under relatively stable market conditions .GARCH is explicitly designed to model time-varying conditional variances. However, GARCH models often fail to capture highly irregular phenomena. These include wild market fluctuations (e.g., crashes and subsequent rebounds) and other highly unanticipated events that can lead to significant structural change.

GARCH models often fail to fully capture the fat tails observed in asset return series. Heteroscedasticity explains some of the fat-tail behavior, but not all of it. To compensate for this limitation, fat-tailed distributions such as Student's t have been applied to GARCH modeling.
http://www.coolavenues.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15134 - 76k

GARCH MODEL TO MEASURE VOLATILITY


(A.)VOLATILITY IN NSE INDEX & RELIANCE POWER INDEX:

Coefficient Omega alpha_1 beta_1 5646.399 0.000118 0.899101

Std. Error 54238.69 8.619786 7.881538

z-Statistic 0.104103 1.36E-05 0.114077

Prob. 0.917088 0.999989 0.909177

INTERPRETATION
In the above graphs there could be seen less fluctuations in the Volatility Of Daily Settlement Prices Of reliance power in NSE & the same is represented by the value of Alpha & Beta, the less fluctuations in the daily settlement prices represents & symbolises

the stability as well as the efficiency, which is a good symbol for the market efficiency. But in the future time period there could be seen more fluctuations in the time period. As the values in the table are around 1 which is a good symbol of efficiency in the NSE market in India.

Some Highlights:
Value of Beta is very much less as near around .899 which is a good symbol of stability in the market.

(B.) VOLATILITY IN NSE INDEX & SUZLON ENERGY INDEX:

Coefficient Omega alpha_1 beta_1 5897.349 0.000381 0.957987

Std. Error 23752.2 3.980189 3.930798

z-Statistic 0.248286 9.57E-05 0.243713

Prob. 0.803913 0.999924 0.807453

INTERPRETATION
In the above graphs there could be seen high fluctuations in the Volatility Of Daily

Settlement Prices Of suzlon energy in NSE & the same is represented by the value of Alpha & Beta, the high fluctuations in the daily settlement prices represents & symbolises the instability as well as the inefficiency, which is not a good symbol for the market efficiency. But in the future time period there could be seen more stability in the time period. As the values in the table are around 1 which is a good symbol of efficiency in the NSE market in India.

Some Highlights:
Value of Beta is very much less as near around .957 which is a good symbol of stability in the market.

(C.) VOLATILITY IN NSE INDEX & TATA POWER INDEX:

Coefficient Omega alpha_1 beta_1 55202.45 0.0127 0.934609

Std. Error 3185590 20.37593 18.65871

z-Statistic 0.017329 0.000623 0.05009

Prob. 0.986174 0.999503 0.960051

INTERPRETATION
In the above graphs there could be seen high fluctuations in the Volatility Of Daily Settlement Prices Of Tata power in NSE & the same is represented by the value of Alpha & Beta, the high fluctuations in the daily settlement prices represents & symbolises the

instability as well as the inefficiency, which is not a good symbol for the market efficiency. But in the future time period there could be seen more fluctuations in the time period. As the values in the table are around 1 which is a good symbol of efficiency in the NSE market in India.

Some Highlights:
Value of Beta is very much less as near around .934 which is a good symbol of stability in the market.

ALPHA ANALYSIS

Suzlon Energy Alpha 0.00038

Tata Power 0.0127

Reliance Power 0.00012

Interpretation:
According to ALPHA Analysis the reliance Power beta 0.00012 is very low as compare to suzlon Energy Beta 0.00038 & Tata Power Beta 0.0127 so according to beta analysis level of risk in Reliance power is very low. So its good to invest in Reliance Power

BETA ANALYSIS

Suzlon Energy Beta 0.957987

Tata Power 0.934609

Reliance Power 0.899101

Interpretation:
According to Beta Analysis the reliance Power beta 0.899101 is very low as compare to suzlon Energy Beta 0.957987 & Tata Power Beta 0.934609 so according to beta analysis level of risk in Reliance power is very low. so its good to invest in Reliance Power

MEASURE FOR SHARPE'S PORTFOLIOS PERFORMANCE

The Sharpe's index measures the risk premium of the portfolio relative to the total amount of risk in portfolio. The Sharpe's index is measured as S = RP Rf /p where, S = Sharpe's Index rp = average monthly return of fund. rf = risk free return *. * risk free return (rf) is taken as 6.00% per annum

(A.) PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF SUZLON ENERGY (APR-07 TO MAR-08)

Nifty Apr-07 May07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Total 3633.6 4150.85 4297.05 4313.75 4345.85 4474.75 5068.95 5866.45 5865 6144.35 5317.25 4953 58430.8 5

Index Return(x) 14.23519375 3.522170158 0.388638717 0.744132136 2.966048069 13.27895413 15.73304136 -0.024716822 4.763000853 -13.46114723 -6.850345573
X =35.29496

X2

Suzlon 160.37 200.39 217.06 250.43 205.73 211.61 244.14 328.66 316.51 326.23 314.49 260.15 3035.7 7

Stock Return (y)

Y2

xy

202.640 7 12.4056 8 0.15104 0.55373 3 8.79744 1 176.330 6 247.528 6 0.00061 1 22.6861 8 181.202 5 46.9272 3
(X) =

24.95479204 8.318778382 15.37362941 -17.84929921 2.858115005 15.37261944 34.61948063 -3.69682955 3.070993018 -3.598688042 -17.2787688
(Y) =

622.741 6 69.2020 7 236.348 5 318.597 5 8.16882 1 236.317 4 1198.50 8 13.6665 5 9.43099 8 12.9505 6 298.555 9
(Y) =

355.236 3 29.3001 5 5.97478 8 13.2822 8.47730 6 204.132 3 544.669 7 0.09137 4 14.6271 4 48.4424 7 118.365 5
XY =

1245.73 5

62.14482233

3861.97 9

2193.4

X = 2.94 Y = 5.18 Standard Deviation

= y N

=17.93
Sharpe's index S = Rp Rf /p Rf = 6.0% p = 17.93 Rp = Y = 5.18 S = (5.18-.06)/17.93 S = 0.29

(B.)PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF SUZLON ENERGY (APR-08 TO MAR-09)


Nifty Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Total 4739.55 5228.2 4739.6 3896.75 4413.55 4348.65 3950.75 3043.85 2682.9 3033.45 2766.65 2674.6 45518.5 Index Return (x) 10.31005053 -9.345472629 -17.78314626 13.262334 -1.470471616 -9.149966081 -22.9551351 -11.8583373 13.06608521 -8.795266116 -3.327128477
X =-

X2

Suzlon 275.35 290.18 265.54 200.05 231.99 216.57 155.62 45.08 39.45 66.3 44.45 38.55 1869.13

Stock Return (y)

Y2

xy

106.297 1 87.3378 6 316.240 3 175.889 5 2.16228 7 83.7218 8 526.938 2 140.620 2 170.722 6 77.3567 1 11.0697 8
(X) =

5.385872526 -8.491281274 -24.66295097 15.9660085 -6.646838226 -28.14332548 -71.03200103 -12.48890861 68.0608365 -32.95625943 -13.27334083
(Y) =

29.0076 2 72.1018 6 608.261 2 254.913 4 44.1804 6 792.046 8 5045.54 5 155.972 8 4632.27 7 1086.11 5 176.181 6
(Y) =

55.52862 79.35504 438.5849 211.7465 9.773987 257.5105 1630.549 148.0977 889.2887 289.8591 44.16211
XY =

48.04645385

2308.46 2

-108.2821883

11725.0 3

5202.575

X = 4.00 Y = -9.02 Standard Deviation

= y N

=31.25
Sharpe's index S = Rp Rf /p Rf = 6.0% p = 31.25 Rp = Y = -9.02 S = (-9.02-.06)/31.25 S = -0.29

(C.)PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF SUZLON ENERGY (APR-08 TO MAR-09)


Nifty Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Total 3060.35 3654 4529.9 4340.9 4711.4 4625.35 5083.95 4563.9 5122 5232.2 4899.7 5017 54840.6 5 Index Return (x) 19.39810806 23.9709907 -4.172277534 8.535096409 -1.826421021 9.914925357 -10.22925088 12.22857644 2.151503319 -6.354879401 2.394024124
X =56.01039557

X2

Suzlon 46.55 65.9 113.75 106.75 95.65 95.25 92.25 58.25 81.15 89.9 78.55 72.65 996.6

Share Return (y)

Y2

xy

376.286 6 574.608 4 17.4079 72.8478 7 3.33581 4 98.3057 4 104.637 6 149.538 1 4.62896 7 40.3844 9 5.73135 2
(X) =

41.56820623 72.61001517 -6.153846154 -10.39812646 -0.418191323 -3.149606299 -36.85636856 39.31330472 10.78250154 -12.62513904 -7.511139402
(Y) =

1727.91 6 5272.21 4 37.8698 2 108.121 0.17488 4 9.92002 1358.39 2 1545.53 6 116.262 3 159.394 1 56.4172 2
(Y) =

806.3446 1740.534 25.67555 -88.749 0.763793 -31.2281 377.013 480.7458 23.19859 80.23124 -17.9818
XY =

3137.16 4

87.16161042

7597.14 6

4881.956

X = 4.67 Y = 7.26 Standard Deviation

= y N

=25.16
Sharpe's index S = Rp Rf /p Rf = 6.0% p = 25.16 Rp = Y = 7.26 S = (7.26-.06)/25.16 S = 0.29

(D.)PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF RELIANCE POWER (APR-08 TO MAR-09)


Nifty Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Total 4739.55 5228.2 4739.6 3896.75 4413.55 4348.65 3950.75 3043.85 2682.9 3033.45 2766.65 2674.6 45518.5 Index Return (x) 10.31005053 -9.345472629 -17.78314626 13.262334 -1.470471616 -9.149966081 -22.9551351 -11.8583373 13.06608521 -8.795266116 -3.327128477
X =-

X2

Rpower 318.35 398.77 233.32 131.88 167.18 156.15 154.41 107.06 112.04 122.37 101.47 98.1 2101.1

Share Return (y)

Y2

xy

106.297 1 87.3378 6 316.240 3 175.889 5 2.16228 7 83.7218 8 526.938 2 140.620 2 170.722 6 77.3567 1 11.0697 8
(X) =

25.26150463 -41.490082 -43.4767701 26.76675766 -6.597679148 -1.11431316 -30.66511236 4.651597235 9.219921457 -17.07934951 -3.321178673
(Y) =

638.143 6 1721.42 7 1890.23 716.459 3 43.5293 7 1.24169 4 940.349 1 21.6373 6 85.0069 5 291.704 2 11.0302 3
(Y) =

260.4474 387.7444 773.1538 354.9897 9.7017 10.19593 703.9218 -55.1602 120.4683 150.2174 11.04999
XY =

48.04645385

2308.46 2

-77.84470398

6059.79 8

3740.162

X = 4.00 Y = -6.49 Standard Deviation

= y N

=22.47
Sharpe's index S = Rp Rf /p Rf = 6.0% p = 22.47 Rp = Y = -6.49 S = (-6.49-.06)/22.47 S = -0.29

(E.)PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF RELIANCE POWER (APR-09 TO MAR-10)


Nifty Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Total 3060.35 3654 4529.9 4340.9 4711.4 4625.35 5083.95 4563.9 5122 5232.2 4899.7 5017 54840.65 Index Return (x) 19.39810806 23.9709907 -4.172277534 8.535096409 -1.826421021 9.914925357 -10.22925088 12.22857644 2.151503319 -6.354879401 2.394024124
X =56.01039557

X2

Rpower 103.88 127.53 183.63 170.16 169.55 161.23 167.38 138.55 146.03 155.53 147.07 139.89 1810.43

Share Return (y)

Y2

xy

376.2866 574.6084 17.4079 72.84787 3.335814 98.30574 104.6376 149.5381 4.628967 40.38449 5.731352
(X) =

22.76665383 43.98964949 -7.335402712 -0.358486131 -4.907107048 3.814426596 -17.22428008 5.398773006 6.505512566 -5.439465055 -4.882028966
(Y) =

518.3205 1935.089 53.80813 0.128512 24.0797 14.54985 296.6758 29.14675 42.32169 29.58778 23.83421
(Y) =

441.63 1054.475 30.60534 -3.05971 8.962443 37.81975 176.1915 66.01931 13.99663 34.56714 -11.6877
XY =

3137.164

42.3282455

1791.68

2370.822

X = 4.67 Y = 3.53 Standard Deviation

= y N

=12.22
Sharpe's index S = Rp Rf /p Rf = 6.0% p = 12.22

Rp = Y = 3.53 S = (3.53-.06)/12.22 S = 0.28

(F.)PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF TATA POWER (APR07 TO MAR-08)


Nifty Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Total 3633.6 4150.85 4297.05 4313.75 4345.85 4474.75 5068.95 5866.45 5865 6144.35 5317.25 4953 58430.85 Index Return (x) 14.23519375 3.522170158 0.388638717 0.744132136 2.966048069 13.27895413 15.73304136 -0.024716822 4.763000853 -13.46114723 -6.850345573
X =35.29496954

X2

Tata

Share return

Y2

xy

202.6407 12.40568 0.15104 0.553733 8.797441 176.3306 247.5286 0.000611 22.68618 181.2025 46.92723
(X) =

Power (y) 506.79 605.82 19.54063813 589.03 -2.771450266 672.75 14.21319797 706.31 4.988480119 684.9 -3.031246903 901.96 31.69221784 1230.44 36.41846645 1257.29 2.182146224 1517.8 20.71996119 1322.09 -12.89432073 1313.87 -0.621742847 (Y) = 11309.05 110.4363472

381.8365 7.680937 202.015 24.88493 9.188458 1004.397 1326.305 4.761762 429.3168 166.2635 0.386564
(Y) =

278.1648 -9.76152 5.523799 3.712088 -8.99082 420.8395 572.9732 -0.05394 98.68919 173.5723 4.259153
XY =

1245.735

12196.19

3897.848

X = 2.95 Y = 9.20 Standard Deviation

= y N

=31.88
Sharpe's index S = Rp Rf /p Rf = 6.0% p = 31.88

Rp = Y = 9.20 S = (9.20-.06)/31.88 S = 0.29

(G.)PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF TATA POWER (APR08 TO MAR-09)


Nifty Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Total 4739.55 5228.2 4739.6 3896.75 4413.55 4348.65 3950.75 3043.85 2682.9 3033.45 2766.65 2674.6 45518.5 Index Return (x) 10.31005053 -9.345472629 -17.78314626 13.262334 -1.470471616 -9.149966081 -22.9551351 -11.8583373 13.06608521 -8.795266116 -3.327128477
X =-

X2

Tata

Share Return

Y2

xy

Power (y) 1171.86 106.297 1428.24 21.87804004 1 87.3378 6 316.240 3 175.889 5 2.16228 7 83.7218 8 526.938 2 140.620 2 170.722 6 77.3567 1 11.0697 8
(X) =

478.648 6 36.7224 6 553.486 7 107.192 8 74.9121 3 94.5516 4 619.949 7 40.2908 7 299.391 5.7861 28.7196
(Y) =

225.5637 56.63268 418.3716 137.3102 12.7272 88.97213 571.5551 75.2709 226.0814 21.15641 17.8303
XY =

1341.69 1026.04 1132.27 1034.27 933.7 701.22 656.71 770.34 751.81 711.52 11659.67

-6.059905898 -23.52629892 10.35339753 -8.655179418 -9.723766521 -24.89878976 -6.347508628 17.3029191 -2.405431368 -5.359066785
(Y) =

48.04645385

2308.46 2

-37.44159064

1401.87 3

1798.936

X = 4.00 Y = -3.12 Standard Deviation

= y N

=10.80
Sharpe's index S = Rp Rf /p Rf = 6.0% p = 10.80 Rp = Y =- 3.12 S = (-3.12-.06)/10.80 S =- 0.29

(H.)PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF TATA POWER (APR09 TO MAR-10)


Nifty Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Index X2 Tata Power 788.4 912.77 1080.75 1152.06 1337.44 1309.08 1294.98 1337.34 1357.26 1390.34 1293.81 Share Return (y) Y2 Return (x) 3060.35 3654 4529.9 4340.9 4711.4 4625.35 5083.95 4563.9 5122 5232.2 4899.7

19.39 23.97 -4.172 8.53 -1.826 9.91 -10.22 12.22 2.15 -6.35

376.2866 574.6084 17.4079 72.84787 3.335814 98.30574 104.6376 149.5381 4.628967 40.38449

15.77498732 18.40332176 6.598195697 16.09117581 -2.120468956 -1.077092309 3.27109299 1.48952398 2.43726331 -6.942906052

248.8502 338.6823 43.53619 258.9259 4.496389 1.160128 10.70005 2.218682 5.940252 48.20394

Mar-10 Total

5017 54840.65

2.39 X =56.01039557

5.731352 (X) =3137.164

1247.74 14501.97

-3.560801045 (Y) =50.364

12.6793 (Y) =2536.562

X = 4.67 Y = 4.20 Standard Deviation

= y N

=14.53
Sharpe's index S = Rp Rf /p Rf = 6.0% p = 14.53 Rp = Y = 4.20 S = (4.20-.06)/14.53 S = 0.28

SHARPE MODEL:-

March 07 Suzlon Energy Tata Power Reliance Power 0.29 0.29 0.00

March 08 -0.29 -0.29 -0.29

March 09 0.29 0.28 0.28

Interpretation:The Sharpe Ratio is a measure of the risk-adjusted return of an investment. Mathematically the Sharpe ratio is the returns generated over the risk free rate, per unit of risk. Risk in this case is taken to be the fund's standard deviation. It is thus one single number, which represents the tradeoff between risks and returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is therefore better as it represents a higher return generated per unit of risk. As per this SUZLON ENERGY has highest Sharpe Ratio this indicate SUZLON ENERGY stock generate highest return per unit of risk.

STATISTICAL TOOL
An educated citizen needs an understanding of basic statistical tool to function in a world that is becoming increasingly dependent on quantitative information. Statistics means numerical description to most people. In fact the term statistics is generally used to mean numerical facts and figures such as agriculture production during a year, rate of inflation and so on. However as a subject of study, statistics refers to the body of principles and procedures developed for the collection, classification, summarization and interpretation of numerical data and for the use of such data.

MEANING:Broadly speaking, the term statistics has been generally used in two senses:Plural Sense Singular Sense Plural sense refers to the numerical data. Singular Sense refers to a Science in which we deals with the techniques of collecting, classifying, presenting, analyzing and interpreting the data, the concept in its singular sense, refers to Statistical Method.

PURPOSE:Without the assistance of Statistical Method, an organization would find it impossible to make sense of the huge data. The purpose of statistics is to: Manipulate Summarize Investigate

The data so that useful decision making information results could be found out. In fact, every business manager needs a sound background of statistics. Statistics is a set of Decision Making techniques which aids businessman in drawing inferences from the available data. Statistical tools are the basic measures, which helps in defining the relation between different items, present, past and future trend of the future trend of the particular business etc. A wide variety of statistical tools are available and any of them can be used by any businessman depending upon the nature of his trade.

During my study the tools that I am likely to use are as follows: CORRELATION REGRESSION

RELIABILTY ANALYSIS
GARCH MODEL

ANOVA SHARPE MODEL

CORRELATION
Correlation analysis deals with the association between two or more variables Simpson and Kafka. If two or more quantities vary in sympathy, so that movement in one tends to be accompanied by corresponding movements in the other, then they are said to be correlated-Conner. Correlation analysis attempts to determine the degree of relationship between variables. WHY TO USE CORRELATION: Different type of statistical tool are available but my main motive is to find out the relationship between reality index with Sensex, Nifty thats why I use this Particular type of tool only
COEFFICIENT OF CORRELATION IS GIVEN BY: R=x.yvx2.y2

TOOLS APPLIED
(A.) CORRELATION Variables: PAT (Profit After Tax) Net Worth Risk Share Price

TATA POWER
Correlations networth Networth Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N shareprice Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 3 .731 .478 3 -.680 .524 3 .994 .072 3 1 shareprice .731 .478 3 1 risk -.680 .524 3 .004 .998 3 1 pat .994 .072 3 .649 .551 3 -.759 .452 3 1

3 .004 .998 3 .649 .551 3

Risk

3 -.759 .452 3

Pat

INTERPRETATION
To interpret the correlation coefficient, we examine the coefficient & its associated significance value. It was hypothesized that

there is a +ve Moderate degree of correlation between the Net Worth, Share Prices is .731, there is a ve Moderate degree of correlation between Net Worth & Risk is -.680, there is a +ve high degree of correlation between the PAT & Net Worth is .994, there is a +ve Moderate degree of correlation between Share Price & PAT is .649, there is a +ve Low Degree Of correlation between the Share Price & Risk is .004,

SUZLON ENERGY

Correlations Networth Networth Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Shareprice Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Risk Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pat Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 3 -.883 .312 3 -.587 .601 3 -.004 .998 3 3 .137 .912 3 .473 .686 3 3 -.807 .402 3 3 1 Shareprice -.883 .312 3 1 risk -.587 .601 3 .137 .912 3 1 pat -.004 .998 3 .473 .686 3 -.807 .402 3 1

INTERPRETATION
To interpret the correlation coefficient, we examine the coefficient & its associated significance value. It was hypothesized that there is a -ve high degree of correlation between the Net Worth, Share Prices is -.883, there is a ve Moderate degree of correlation between Net Worth & Risk is -.587, there is a -ve low degree of correlation between the PAT & Net Worth is -.004, there is a +ve Moderate degree of correlation between Share Price & PAT is .473, there is a +ve Low Degree Of correlation between the Share Price & Risk is .137,

RELIANCE POWER

Correlations networth networth Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N shareprice Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N risk Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N pat Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 3 .993 .076 3 .006 .996 3 .812 .397 3 3 -.114 .927 3 .737 .473 3 3 .588 .600 3 3 1 shareprice .993 .076 3 1 risk .006 .996 3 -.114 .927 3 1 pat .812 .397 3 .737 .473 3 .588 .600 3 1

INTERPRETATION
To interpret the correlation coefficient, we examine the coefficient & its associated significance value. It was hypothesized that there is a +ve High degree of correlation between the Net Worth, Share Prices is . 993, there is a +ve low degree of correlation between Net Worth & Risk is .006, there is a +ve high degree of correlation between the PAT & Net Worth is .812, there is a +ve Moderate degree of correlation between Share Price & PAT is .737, there is a -ve Low Degree Of correlation between the Share Price & Risk is -.114,

(B.) Reliability Analysis

Cronbachs alpha is most commonly used reliability coefficients, which is based on the average correlation of items within a test if the items are standardized. If the items are not standardized, it is based on the average covariance among the items. Because Cronbachs alpha can be interpreted as a correlation coefficient, it ranges in value from 0 to 1.
Variables: PAT (Profit After Tax) Net Worth Risk Share Price

1. TATA POWER

Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha Based on Standardized Cronbach's Alpha .547 Items .496 N of Items 4

INTERPRETATION
In the above table the value of Cronbach alpha is .547 that is 54.7% the reliability of the variables is good & which symbolizes the efficiency of study.

2. SUZLON ENERGY

Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha Based on Standardized Cronbach's Alpha


a

Itemsa .747

N of Items 4

.599

INTERPRETATION
In the above table the value of Cronbach alpha is .599 that is 59.9% the reliability of the variables is good & which symbolizes the efficiency of study.

3. RELIANCE POWER
Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha Based on Standardized Cronbach's Alpha .571 Items .602 N of Items 4

INTERPRETATION
In the above table the value of Cronbach alpha is .571 that is 57.1% the reliability of the variables is good & which symbolizes the efficiency of study.

(D.)Regression Analysis
In statistics, regression analysis includes any techniques for modeling and analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship between a dependent variable and

one or more independent variables. More specifically, regression analysis helps us understand how the typical value of the dependent variable changes when any one of the independent variables is varied, while the other independent variables are held fixed. Most commonly, regression analysis estimates the conditional expectation of the dependent variable given the independent variables that is, the average value of the dependent variable when the independent variables are held fixed. Less commonly, the focus is on a quantile, or other location parameter of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given the independent variables. In all cases, the estimation target is a function of the independent variables called the regression function. In regression analysis, it is also of interest to characterize the variation of the dependent variable around the regression function, which can be described by a probability distribution. Regression analysis is widely used for prediction and forecasting, where its use has substantial overlap with the field of machine learning. Regression analysis is also used to understand which among the independent variables are related to the dependent variable, and to explore the forms of these relationships. In restricted circumstances, regression analysis can be used to infer causal relationships between the independent and dependent variables.

(1.)Suzlon Energy
VARIABLES:
Dependent Variable: PAT

Independent Variable: Risk


Model Summaryb Model 1 R .807
a

R Square .652

Adjusted R Square .304

Std. Error of the Estimate 472.21298

a. Predictors: (Constant), risk b. Dependent Variable: pat

Interpretation
In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which risk of the company effect the on Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .652 which shows that up to 65.2% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Risk & Net Worth

VARIABLES:
Dependent Variable: PAT Independent Variable: Share Price
Model Summaryb Std. Error of the Model 1 R .473
a

R Square .224

Adjusted R Square -.552

Estimate 705.04040

a. Predictors: (Constant), Shareprice b. Dependent Variable: pat

Interpretation
In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Share Price of the company effect on the PAT of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .224 which shows that up to 22.4% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Share Price & PAT.

VARIABLES:
Dependent Variable: Net Worth Independent Variable: Share Price

Model Summaryb Model 1 R .883


a

R Square .779

Adjusted R Square .558

Std. Error of the Estimate 1181.66910

a. Predictors: (Constant), Shareprice b. Dependent Variable: Networth

Interpretation
In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Share Price of the company effect on the Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .779 which shows that up to 77.9% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Share Price & Net Worth.

VARIABLES:
Dependent Variable: Net Worth

Interpretation In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which risk of the company effect the Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .344 which shows that up to 34.4% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Risk & Net Worth.

(2.)Reliance Power VARIABLES:


Dependent Variable: Net Worth Independent Variable: Share Price

Model Summary Model 1 R .993


a

R Square .986

Adjusted R Square .971

Std. Error of the Estimate 1315.10223

a. Predictors: (Constant), shareprice b. Dependent Variable: Networth

Interpretation
In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Share Price of the company effect on the Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .986 which shows that up to 98.6% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Share Price & Net Worth.

VARIABLES:
Dependent Variable: Net Worth Independent Variable: Risk

Model Summary Model 1 R .737


a

R Square .543

Adjusted R Square .085

Std. Error of the Estimate 91.25449

a. Predictors: (Constant), Risk b. Dependent Variable: Networth

INTERPRETATION: values of Risk & Net Worth. In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Risk of the company effect on the Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .543 which shows that up to 54.3% of fluctuations take place due to the

Model Summary Model 1 R .993


a

R Square .986

Adjusted R Square .971

Std. Error of the Estimate 1315.10223

a. Predictors: (Constant), shareprice b. Dependent Variable: Networth

Interpretation
In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Share Price of the company effect on the Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .986 which shows that up to 98.6% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Share Price & Net Worth.

VARIABLES:
Dependent Variable: Net Worth Independent Variable: Risk

Model Summary Model 1 R .737


a

R Square .543

Adjusted R Square .085

Std. Error of the Estimate 91.25449

a. Predictors: (Constant), Risk b. Dependent Variable: Networth

INTERPRETATION: values of Risk & Net Worth. In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Risk of the company effect on the Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .543 which shows that up to 54.3% of fluctuations take place due to the

Model Summary Model 1 R .993


a

R Square .986

Adjusted R Square .971

Std. Error of the Estimate 1315.10223

a. Predictors: (Constant), shareprice b. Dependent Variable: Networth

Interpretation
In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Share Price of the company effect on the Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .986 which shows that up to 98.6% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Share Price & Net Worth.

VARIABLES:
Dependent Variable: Net Worth Independent Variable: Risk

Model Summary Model 1 R .737


a

R Square .543

Adjusted R Square .085

Std. Error of the Estimate 91.25449

a. Predictors: (Constant), Risk b. Dependent Variable: Networth

INTERPRETATION: values of Risk & Net Worth. In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Risk of the company effect on the Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .543 which shows that up to 54.3% of fluctuations take place due to the

Model Summary Model 1 R .993


a

R Square .986

Adjusted R Square .971

Std. Error of the Estimate 1315.10223

a. Predictors: (Constant), shareprice b. Dependent Variable: Networth

Interpretation
In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Share Price of the company effect on the Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .986 which shows that up to 98.6% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Share Price & Net Worth.

VARIABLES:
Dependent Variable: Net Worth Independent Variable: Risk

Model Summary Model 1 R .737


a

R Square .543

Adjusted R Square .085

Std. Error of the Estimate 91.25449

a. Predictors: (Constant), Risk b. Dependent Variable: Networth

INTERPRETATION: values of Risk & Net Worth. In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Risk of the company effect on the Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .543 which shows that up to 54.3% of fluctuations take place due to the

b. Dependent Variable: PAT

Interpretation
In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Share Price of the company effect on the PAT of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .543 which shows that up to 54.3% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Share Price & PAT.

(3.) Tata Power

Model Summary Std. Error of the Model 1 R .649


a

R Square .421

Adjusted R Square -.159

Estimate 131.20737

a. Predictors: (Constant), shareprice b. Dependent Variable: Networth

Interpretation
In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Share Price of the company effect on the Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .421 which shows that up to 42.1% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Share Price & Net Worth.

Model Summary Std. Error of the Model 1 R .680a R Square .463 Adjusted R Square -.075 Estimate 1445.19895

a. Predictors: (Constant), risk b. Dependent Variable: Net worth

Interpretation
In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Risk of the company effect on the Net Worth of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .463 which shows that up to 46.3% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Risk & Net Worth.

Model Summary Std. Error of the Model 1 R .731


a

R Square .534

Adjusted R Square .068

Estimate 1345.73055

a. Predictors: (Constant), shareprice b. Dependent Variable: PAT

Interpretation
In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Share Price of the company effect on the PAT of the company in last three year & the computer generated value is .534 which shows that up to 53.4% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Share Price & PAT.

Model Summary Std. Error of the Model 1 R .759a R Square .576 Adjusted R Square .152 Estimate 112.26828

a. Predictors: (Constant), risk b. Dependent Variable: PAT

Interpretation
In the above computer generated table of model summary, we consider the value of R Square to know the level to which Risk of the company effect on the PAT of the

company in last three year & the computer generated value is .576 which shows that up to 57.6% of fluctuations take place due to the values of Risk & PAT.

RESULTS AND FINDINGS But in condition of rpower the current ratio is going upward. That is good for business. Because in the year 2008, 2009 they are totally concentrate on maintaining liquidity. So the current ratio in March 09 is 27.23 In the condition of suzlon energy the current ration of company continuous decreasing from 1.49 to 0.82 that is not good situation for suzlon energy. In the Reliability test of Tata Power the value of Cronbach alpha is .547 that is 54.7% the reliability of the variables is good & which symbolizes the efficiency of study. In the Reliability test of Suzlon Energy the value of Cronbach alpha is .599 that is 59.9% the reliability of the variables is good & which symbolizes the efficiency of study.

In the Reliability test of Reliance Power the value of Cronbach alpha is .571 that is 57.1% the reliability of the variables is good & which symbolizes the efficiency of study.

According to Beta Analysis the reliance Power beta 0.899101 is very low as compare to suzlon Energy Beta 0.957987 & Tata Power Beta 0.934609 so according to beta

analysis level of risk in Reliance power is very low. so its good to invest in Reliance Power But in condition of Tata power the PAT is going upward. That is good for business. Because in the year 2009 they are totally concentrate on increasing the profit. So the PAT in March 09 is 922 crore But in condition of Suzlon Energy the PAT is going downward. That is not good for business. Because in the year 2009 they are totally not concentrate on the profit. So the PAT in March 09 is going down up to 394 crore for 1520 crore. that is not good for business The Sharpe Ratio is a measure of the risk-adjusted return of an investment. Mathematically the Sharpe ratio is the returns generated over the risk free rate, per unit of risk. Risk in this case is taken to be the fund's standard deviation. It is thus one single number, which represents the tradeoff between risks and returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is therefore better as it represents a higher return generated per unit of risk. As per this SUZLON ENERGY has highest Sharpe Ratio this indicate SUZLON ENERGY stock generate highest return per unit of risk. The Sharpe Ratio is a measure of the risk-adjusted return of an investment. In the year 2008 its going down because recession is in the market.
In the all table of ANOVA the value of sig. is greater than the standard significant

level that is 5% so as a result we reject the null hypothesis & accept the alternate which symbolises that predictors are quite significant. On the other hand if we compare the value of F with the table value then the same result can be concluded as to reject h0 the null hypothesis. According to ALPHA Analysis the reliance Power beta 0.00012 is very low as compare to suzlon Energy Beta 0.00038 & Tata Power Beta 0.0127 so according to beta analysis level of risk in Reliance power is very low. So its good to invest in Reliance Power

POLICY IMPLICATIONS
In the condition of suzlon energy the current ration of company continuous decreasing from 1.49 to 0.82 that is not good situation for suzlon energy.so they should concentrate on maintain liquidity in to the organization. But in condition of Suzlon Energy the PAT is going downward. That is not good for business. Because in the year 2009 they are totally not concentrate on the profit. So the PAT in March 09 is going down up to 394 crore for 1520 crore. that is not good for business. so they should concentrate on maintain continuous profit in to the organization. But in condition of rpower the current ratio is going upward. That is good for business. Because in the year 2008, 2009 they are totally concentrate on maintaining liquidity. So the current ratio in March 09 is 27.23.so they should concentrate on maintain optimum level of liquidity in to the organization.

According to ALPHA Analysis the reliance Power beta 0.00012 is very low as compare to suzlon Energy Beta 0.00038 & Tata Power Beta 0.0127 so according to beta analysis level of risk in Reliance power is very low. So its good to invest in Reliance Power. But suzlon energy & tata power is not concentrate on this side so concentrate on this side also. But in condition of Tata power the PAT is going upward. That is good for business. Because in the year 2009 they are totally concentrate on increasing the profit. So the PAT in March 09 is 922 crore.but reliance power is not taking their attention on this side. so concentrate on this side also.

RECOMMENDATIONS BIBILOGRAPHY

Books & Magazines: 1. Pandian Punithavathy, (2nd edition), Security analysis and portfolio management Vikas publishing house pvt LTD. , PP 45-48 2. Bhole.L.M, (9th edition), Financial Institutions and Markets- Structure, Growth and Innovations, PP 179-214

3. Donald E. Fischer, (3th edition) Security Analysis and Portfolio Management, Kalyan Publisher, PP 79-92:4. Ronald J. Jordan, (4th edition) Security Analysis and Portfolio Management, New Delhi, PP 112-132

5. Beri G.C., (4th edition), Marketing Research publishing house, New Delhi, PP 68-72

6. Gupta Shashi.k, (5th edition), Publishrs,New Delhi, PP 23.1-23.9

Management

Accounting,

Kalyan

7. Kran Uma. (4th edition), The Research Process,PP.67-72 8. Donald R. Cooper and Pamela S. Schindler , (Eighth Edition), Business Research Methodology, Tata McGraw Hill Publishing Company Limited, New Delhi, PP 82, 86, 87., PP 101,102

9. Kothari C.R., (2nd edition),Research Methodology Methods and Techniques New Age International Publishers, Ansari Road, Daryaganj, New Delhi-110002 , PP 55-58,95,100,111. 10. Jain T.R, and Aggarwal Dr. S.C., (2nd Edition), Statistics For M.B.A, VK publication, PP1- 3 Part b, , PP 131-134 11. Murray R. Spiegel, (3rd edition), Theory and Problem of Statistics, Tata Mc Graw Hill Publication, Chapter 12, PP. 45-48

12. Gupta S.P, (12th edition), Statistical Methods Sultan Chand and Sons Publications, PP 237-241,628-629 13. Hooda R.P., (4th edition), Statistics for Business and Economics, V.K. publication PP.88-92 14. Schaums (2004) Statistical outline, Tata McGraw Hill Publishing Company Limited, PP. 45-53 15. Kothari, C.R, (2nd edition) Quantitative Techniques, New Age International Publishers, Ansari Road, Daryaganj, New Delhi-110002, PP.117-132

JOURNALS: -

16. Karmakar Madhusudan APRIL JUNE 2009. Price Discoveries and Volatility Spillovers in S&P CNX Nifty Future and its Underlying Index CNX Nifty, VIKALPA The Journal of Decision Makers, Volume 34, No. 2, PP 41 56 17. Mahakud Jitendera., Kumar Arun Misra , APRIL 2009 Effects of Leverage and Adjustment Costs on Corporate Performance Evidence from Indian Companies, Journal of Management Research, Volume 9, No. 1, PP 35 42 18. Siddiqui Saif. , JANUARY MARCH 2009, Stock Market Integration: Examining Linkage Between Selected World Markets VISION The Journal of Business Perspective , volume 13 , No. 1, PP 19-29 19. Brav Omer, FEBRUARY 2009, Access to Capital, Capital Structure, and the Funding of the Firm, the Journal of Finance Volume IXIV, No. 1, PP 263 308, 20. Ravichandran K, DECEMBER 2008, The Sensible SENSEX: an Exploratory Study to Forecast Sensex for 2010, Pragyaan: Journal of Management, Volume 6, Issue 2, and PP 1 8 21. Mahajan Sarika & Singh Balwinder., JULY SEPTEMBER 2008, An Empirical Analysis of Stock Price Volume Relationship in Indian Stock Market, VISION The Journal of Business Perspective, Volume 12, No 3, PP 1- 13 22. Ali Asghar Anvary Rostamy JUNE 2008, Assessing Stock Markets Efficiency , Market Attractiveness and Nature of Information the Investor use when they trade Securities FINANCE INDIA, Volume XXII, No. 2, PP 447 465 23. Kaur Kuldip , Determinants of Debt Equity Mix Analysis from Indian Firms FINANCE INDIA, Volume XXII, No. 2, JUNE 2008 , PP 487 500, 24. Khan Masood Ahmad, Shahid Ashraf, Shahid Ahmad. MARCH 2008, Causality and Volatility in firm level stock returns and volume in India:

Evidence from National Stock Exchange FINANCE INDIA volume XXII No.1, PP 99-110, 25. Srivastava Sandeep, Yadav Surnedra, Jain P.K. DECEMBER 2007 Effect of derivative security on volatility A study in context of Indian stock market. FINANCE INDIA, volume XXI No.4, PP 1271- 1295 26. Chittedi Reddy Krishna. JULY 2009, SENSEX- the Dancing Beauty of Indian Stock Market INDIAN JOURNAL OF FINANCE VOLUME 3, No. 7, PP 10 15, 27. Dr. Iqbal, Dr. T. Mallikarjunappa. JULY 2009, Indian stock market reaction to quarterly earnings information INDIAN JOURNAL OF FINANCE, VOLUME 3, No. 7, PP 43-50, 28. Sarkar Amitava, Chakrabarti Gagari and Sen Chitrakalpa . (2009, Indian stock market volatility in recent years: Transmission from global market, regional market and traditional domestic sectors, Journal of Asset Management vol. 10 PP 6371, 29. Selvarani M.& Lakshmi Shree M. MARCH 2009Seasonality in National Stock Exchange Indices and Pharmaceutical Industry, INDIAN JOURNAL OF FINANCE, VOLUME 3, No. 3, PP 17-26 30. Siddiqui Saif. , OCTOBER 2008 A study of stock market investors of Delhi A behavioral finance perspective INDIAN JOURNAL OF FINANCE , PP 2226,

WEBSITES: 31. http://money.rediff.com/companies

32. http://capitaline.com
33. www.OrderAnnualReports.com/Free 34. myiris.com/shares/company/financial.php?icode... 35. demonstrations.wolfram.com/SimulatingAssetPricesWithAGARCH11Model/ 36. www.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/djam/djam.htm

37. 38. 39. 40.

www.sharpe1.com/sharpe/sharpe.nsf/Files/RMC2RMC3/.../311288B.pdf. www.statisticallysignificantconsulting.com/Anova.htm www.nseindia/tatapower/historicaldata.com http://www.naukrihub.com/india/power sector/top-companies/

ANNEXURES RELIANCE POWER


RELIANCE POWER RELIABILITY TEST

Item-Total Statistics Scale Scale Mean if Variance if Item Deleted Item Deleted networth shareprice risk pat 197.9967 9267.0900 9376.5133 9287.9300 31593.219 6.169E7 6.318E7 6.196E7 Corrected Item-Total Correlation .968 .992 .012 .811 Squared Multiple Correlation . . . . Cronbach's Alpha if Item Deleted .637 .029 .064 .036

Case Processing Summary N Cases Valid Excludeda Total 3 0 3 % 100.0 .0 100.0

a. Listwise deletion based on all variables in the procedure.

Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha Based on Cronbach's Alpha Standardized Items .057 .802 N of Items 4

Summary Item Statistics Maximum / Mean Inter-Item Covariances Inter-Item Correlations 2.241E5 .504 Minimum -3.086 -.114 Maximum 7.356E5 .993 Range 7.356E5 1.106 Minimum -238322.761 -8.735 Variance 1.096E11 .186 N of Items 4 4

Scale Statistics Mean 9.3765E3 Variance 6.318E7 Std. Deviation 7948.77828 N of Items 4

CORRELATION
Correlations networth networth Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N shareprice Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N risk Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N pat Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 3 .993 .076 3 .006 .996 3 .812 .397 3 3 -.114 .927 3 .737 .473 3 3 .588 .600 3 3 1 shareprice .993 .076 3 1 risk .006 .996 3 -.114 .927 3 1 pat .812 .397 3 .737 .473 3 .588 .600 3 1

RATIO OF RELIANCE POWER

9-Mar Key Ratios Debt-Equity Ratio Long Term Debt-Equity Ratio Current Ratio 0 0 27.23

8-Mar

7-Mar

6-Mar

5-Mar

0 0 12.57

0 0 0.44

0 0 0.01

0.29 0.29 0.01

Turnover Ratios Fixed Assets Inventory Debtors Interest Cover Ratio PBIDTM (%) PBITM (%) PBDTM (%) CPM (%) APATM (%) ROCE (%) RONW (%) http://www.capitaline.com (Rs in Crs) Top of Form Bottom of Form Year SOURCES OF FUNDS : Share Capital Reserves Total Equity Share Warrants Equity Application Money Total Shareholders Funds Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Service Line & Sec.Dep. from Cust. Total Debt Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS : Gross Block Less: Accumulated Depreciation Less:Impairment of Assets Net Block Lease Adjustment Capital Work in Progress Investments Current Assets, Loans & Advances 78.18 1.58 0 76.6 0 55.84 6,282.71 67.41 1.06 0 66.35 0 61.14 8,489.75 67.27 1 0 66.27 0 50.82 41.28 66.77 0.76 0 66.01 0 35.85 0.01 0.3 0.19 0 0.11 0 88.08 0.02 2,396.80 11,396.01 0 0 13,792.81 0 0 0 0 13,792.81 2,259.95 11,282.7 3 0 0 13,542.6 8 0 0 0 0 13,542.6 8 200.04 0.01 0 0 200.05 0 0 0 0 200.05 0.05 -0.15 0 0 -0.1 0 0 0 0 -0.1 0.05 -0.02 0 0 0.03 0 0 0 0 0.03 0 0 0 111.49 0 0 0 0 0 1.44 1.39 0 0 0 15.23 0 0 0 0 0 1.27 1.1 0.03 0 2 1.66 60.44 60.44 24 7.11 7.11 1.36 0.16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mar 09

Mar 08

Mar 07

Mar 06

Mar 05

Inventories Sundry Debtors Cash and Bank Loans and Advances Total Current Assets Less: Current Liabilities and Provisions Current Liabilities Provisions Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets Miscellaneous Expenses not written off Deferred Tax Assets Deferred Tax Liability Net Deferred Tax Total Assets Contingent Liabilities

0 0 14.42 7,407.58 7,422.00

0 0 361.16 4,988.93 5,350.09

0 2.25 0.78 43.42 46.45

0 0 0.58 0.35 0.93

0 0 0.7 0.08 0.78

43.04 1.3 44.34 7,377.66 0 0 0 0 13,792.81 600

423.86 0.79 424.65 4,925.44 0 0 0 0 13,542.6 8 600

3.53 1.24 4.77 41.68 0 0 0 0 200.05 0

102.88 0.02 102.9 -101.97 0 0 0 0 -0.1 0

88.96 0 88.96 -88.18 0 0 0 0 0.03 0

SUZLON ENERGY
SUZLON ENERGY RELIABILITY TEST

Case Processing Summary N Cases Valid Excludeda Total 3 0 3 % 100.0 .0 100.0

a. Listwise deletion based on all variables in the procedure.

Item-Total Statistics Scale Mean if Item Deleted Networth Shareprice risk pat 1159.1800 6735.5767 6902.2700 5910.0733 Scale Variance if Item Deleted 375625.115 3471409.955 3248947.174 2888035.864 Corrected ItemTotal Correlation -.132 -.698 -.825 .021 Squared Multiple Cronbach's Alpha Correlation . . . . if Item Deleted .189 -.004a -.110a -.145a

a. The value is negative due to a negative average covariance among items. This violates reliability model assumptions. You may want to check item codings.

Scale Statistics Mean 6.9024E3 Variance 3.248E6 Std. Deviation 1802.20720 N of Items 4

CORRELATION

Correlations Networth Networth Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Shareprice Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N risk Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N pat Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 3 -.883 .312 3 -.587 .601 3 -.004 .998 3 3 .137 .912 3 .473 .686 3 3 -.807 .402 3 3 1 Shareprice -.883 .312 3 1 risk -.587 .601 3 .137 .912 3 1 pat -.004 .998 3 .473 .686 3 -.807 .402 3 1

9-Mar Key Ratios Debt-Equity Ratio Long Term Debt-Equity Ratio Current Ratio 0.77 0.62 2

8-Mar

7-Mar

6-Mar

5-Mar

0.4 0.21 1.95

0.23 0.05 2.12

0.18 0.08 2.2

0.41 0.18 1.72

Turnover Ratios Fixed Assets Inventory Debtors Interest Cover Ratio PBIDTM (%) PBITM (%) PBDTM (%) CPM (%) APATM (%) ROCE (%) RONW (%) 8.54 5.05 1.8 0.42 3.89 2.52 -2.11 6.82 5.45 1.52 5.83 10.29 4.85 2.62 10.45 22.32 21.07 20.3 19.52 18.27 19.63 23.77 11.12 4.34 3.03 12.03 24.06 22.69 22.17 21.09 19.72 30.58 32.61 12.25 4.74 3.35 17.54 26.48 25.27 25.04 22.89 21.68 43.52 45.39 10.17 5.51 3.86 10.5 24.65 22.62 22.5 20.88 18.85 46.36 60.1

Variables Entered/Removedb Variables Model 1 Variables Entered riska Removed Method . Enter

a. All requested variables entered. b. Dependent Variable: pat

Model Summaryb Std. Error of the Model 1 R .807a R Square .652 Adjusted R Square .304 Estimate 472.21298

a. Predictors: (Constant), risk b. Dependent Variable: pat

ANOVAb Model 1 Regression Residual Total a. Predictors: (Constant), risk b. Dependent Variable: pat Sum of Squares 417727.320 222985.098 640712.418 df 1 1 2 Mean Square 417727.320 222985.098 F 1.873 Sig. .402a

Coefficientsa Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) risk a. Dependent Variable: pat B 1124.222 -1364.784 Std. Error 289.170 997.139 -.807 Coefficients Beta t 3.888 -1.369 Sig. .160 .402

TATA POWER
TATA POWER RELIABILITY TEST
Case Processing Summary N Cases Valid Excludeda Total 3 0 3 % 100.0 .0 100.0 Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha Based on Cronbach's Alpha Standardized Items .347 .426 N of Items 4

Summary Item Statistics Maximum / Mean Inter-Item Covariances Inter-Item Correlations 5.810E4 .156 Minimum -274.920 -.759 Maximum 1.688E5 .994 Range 1.691E5 1.752 Minimum -614.051 -1.309 Variance 6.608E9 .515 N of Items 4 4

Scale Statistics Mean 7.8822E3 Variance 2.682E6 Std. Deviation 1637.69081 N of Items 4

Item-Total Statistics Scale Mean if Item Scale Variance if Deleted networth shareprice risk pat 1877.2033 6835.3333 7882.2033 7051.8700 Item Deleted 67675.342 2294888.927 2682634.275 2303650.769 Corrected ItemTotal Correlation .926 .725 -.635 .982 Squared Multiple Correlation . . . . Cronbach's Alpha if Item Deleted .574 .220 .390 .217

CORRELATION

Correlations networth networth Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N shareprice Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N risk Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N pat Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 3 .731 .478 3 -.680 .524 3 .994 .072 3 3 .004 .998 3 .649 .551 3 3 -.759 .452 3 3 1 shareprice .731 .478 3 1 risk -.680 .524 3 .004 .998 3 1 pat .994 .072 3 .649 .551 3 -.759 .452 3 1

Balance sheet Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06 Mar ' 05 Sources of funds Owner's fund Equity share capital Share application money Preference share capital Reserves & surplus Loan funds Secured loans Unsecured loans Total Uses of funds Fixed assets Gross block Less : revaluation reserve Less : accumulated depreciation Net block Capital work-in-progress Investments Net current assets Current assets, loans & advances Less : current liabilities & provisions Total net current assets Miscellaneous expenses not written Total Notes: Book value of unquoted investments Market value of quoted investments

221.44 8,422.06

220.72 60.99 7,771.12

197.92 5,793.03

197.92 5,315.91

197.92 4,896.74

3,931.71 2,331.09 1,354.30 946.00 1,059.07 1,315.35 752.26 2,321.22 1,850.81 1,842.75 13,890.56 11,136.18 9,666.47 8,310.64 7,996.48

8,985.86 3,795.32 5,190.54 761.16 5,443.47 4,771.43 2,276.04 2,495.39 13,890.56

6,481.99 3,476.50 3,005.49 1,681.74 4,430.00 3,956.73 1,939.47 2,017.26 1.69 11,136.18

6,229.71 3,199.40 3,030.31 781.05 3,570.15 4,105.04 1,826.25 2,278.79 6.17 9,666.47

5,924.74 2,921.72 3,003.02 211.81 3,412.17 3,035.72 1,367.54 1,668.18 15.46 8,310.64

5,465.84 2,657.37 2,808.47 438.19 3,502.92 2,587.88 1,363.69 1,224.19 22.71 7,996.48

5,106.03 3,736.23 2,810.80 2,579.70 2,794.29 719.95 910.02 995.10 1,284.68 972.97

Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06 Mar ' 05 Contingent liabilities 994.99 1,231.68 1,314.86 313.09 434.04 Number of equity sharesoutstanding (Lacs) 2214.24 2207.00 1978.98 1978.98 1978.98

Ratios Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06 Mar ' 05 Per share ratios Adjusted EPS (Rs) Adjusted cash EPS (Rs) Reported EPS (Rs) Reported cash EPS (Rs) Dividend per share Operating profit per share (Rs) Book value (excl rev res) per share (Rs) Book value (incl rev res) per share (Rs.) Net operating income per share (Rs) Free reserves per share (Rs) Profitability ratios Operating margin (%) Gross profit margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Adjusted cash margin (%) Adjusted return on net worth (%) Reported return on net worth (%) Return on long term funds (%) Leverage ratios Long term debt / Equity Total debt/equity Owners fund as % of total source Fixed assets turnover ratio Liquidity ratios Current ratio Current ratio (inc. st loans) Quick ratio Inventory turnover ratio Payout ratios Dividend payout ratio (net profit) Dividend payout ratio (cash profit) Earning retention ratio Cash earnings retention ratio Coverage ratios Adjusted cash flow time total debt Financial charges coverage ratio Fin. charges cov.ratio (post tax) Component ratios Material cost component (% earnings) Selling cost Component Exports as percent of total sales Import comp. in raw mat. consumed Long term assets / total Assets Bonus component in equity capital (%) 21.71 36.78 41.65 56.72 11.50 50.79 41.28 10.23 327.74 308.95 15.49 10.96 12.32 10.88 5.56 10.66 7.67 0.52 0.60 62.22 0.80 2.10 1.64 1.77 15.49 31.20 22.90 40.16 64.68 6.44 4.15 4.86 73.86 0.67 4.47 0.70 0.51 21.36 34.75 39.42 52.81 10.50 41.67 41.28 10.23 267.77 278.20 15.56 10.64 14.35 12.65 5.90 10.88 7.18 0.34 0.38 72.15 0.91 2.04 1.78 1.75 18.70 30.84 23.02 43.09 65.02 4.02 6.23 7.78 72.76 0.59 0.31 0.69 0.51 24.19 39.44 35.21 50.46 9.50 35.46 302.42 302.42 248.54 215.63 14.26 8.33 13.26 14.85 7.99 11.64 7.62 0.60 0.61 61.97 0.78 2.25 2.22 2.00 6,072.41 31.60 22.05 54.01 71.79 4.71 5.55 6.34 70.10 5.19 2.12 0.64 0.57 22.22 36.78 30.85 45.41 8.50 42.48 277.84 277.84 230.08 192.52 18.46 12.34 12.92 15.40 7.99 11.10 8.72 0.49 0.50 66.34 0.76 2.22 2.18 1.85 498.76 31.41 21.34 56.37 73.65 3.84 6.63 6.89 70.43 1.19 1.82 0.68 0.57 16.17 35.26 27.86 46.95 7.50 45.70 256.29 256.29 198.02 172.76 23.08 13.90 13.57 17.17 6.30 10.87 8.40 0.55 0.56 63.71 0.71 1.90 1.86 1.64 1,012.70 30.81 18.28 46.91 75.66 4.16 5.83 6.17 62.94 1.56 1.88 0.72 0.57