TO: Interested Parties FROM: Christina Coloroso, DCCC Director of Targeting and Analytics RE: NY-24 Poll Results: Maffei in Excellent Position

DATE: October 16, 2013

Representative Dan Maffei is in an excellent position to win reelection in New York’s 24th congressional district. According to the DCCC’s latest IVR survey of likely 2014 general election voters, Maffei has approximately reached the 50% support threshold – a critical indicator of incumbent strength – and he holds a commanding double digit lead over an unnamed Republican challenger. The top Republican candidates have already declined to make this a race in 2014. Even at such an early stage of the campaign, half of all general election voters (49%) plan to support Maffei in the race for US Congress. In the absence of a declared opponent, Maffei leads an unnamed Republican challenger by 13 points (49% to 36%), and that challenger would have to win the support of all of the remaining undecideds (15%) in order to match Maffei. Maffei’s overall margin grows to 19 points among Independent voters (49% to 30%) and 23 points among women (53% to 30%). Maffei’s crossover appeal is further evidenced by the fact that he outperforms the generic Democratic candidate by 2 points. New York’s 24th congressional district naturally tilts towards Democratic candidates, but has been a true battleground seat over the last several elections cycles. In 2012, Maffei defeated Ann Marie Buerke by a 6% margin. In sum, Maffei’s early lead makes him a strong favorite to win reelection in 2014.

The data in this memo is from a survey of 533 likely 2014 general election voters conducted October 13, 2013 in New York’s 24th congressional district. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 4.2%.

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