600%

Market Cycles

Bull

500%

Recovery

10000
1000
100
17

28

3

3

20

21

18

8

6

15

33

140

14

14

33

69

1903‐
1906

1907‐
1909

1921‐1929

1932‐1956

Months
Notes

1957 to 61

1966‐68

1987‐
1990

1970‐74

1974 ‐1982

1982‐87

10

5
0

4

58

109

12
5

20

58

3

4

70

10

21

7
19

29

14

39

11

1962‐66

2002‐07
1990‐2000 

2007 ‐
1

1885‐1902

23

267

56

41

21
4

18

16

S&P

43

164

24

31

0
16

0%

1872‐1882

‐200%

‐100%

1871

Line represents S&P Composite Line drawn to Log Scale from 1902 to present. (Right vertical axis)
Breadth of Bar is in months. (Horizontal axis)
From Professor Shillers Data.
Bear Market is defined as 20% or more decline.
Recovery Period represents time and % change needed to get back to pre-bear market level.

S&P 500 ‐ Log Scale

300%
200%
100%

% change in S&P Composite

400%

Bear

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