BWD GLOBAL

NOV. 6, 2013 TO: JOE MONAHAN

FROM: Bruce Donisthorpe RE: NOV. 6TH ABQ ABORTION BALLOT REFERENDUM METHODOLOGY: Automated phone dialing survey using established demographic methodological standards to 423 likely voting Demcratic, Republican and Independent registered households with known voting history in general elections in the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method between 6 pm and 9 pm. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for the surveys conducted for this questions is 4.2% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey. TOP LINE: Question: Do you support or oppose the Albuquerque special ballot measure to ban most abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy? OPPOSE SUPPORT UNDECIDED Margin of Error: 4.7% 423 Likely Voters, City of Albuquerque Bruce Donisthorpe has been polling professionally since 2006. He has conducted several polls for Joe Monahan’s political blog in the 2008, 2010 and 2012 campaigns. And conducted a survey on Mayor Berry’s public approval rating last year. He was active in polling the City of Albuquerque elections in 2009, in which he accurately forecasted Berry’s win and the upset victory by City Councillor Dan Lewis in Albuquerque City Counil District 5. This is the 2nd survey Donisthorpe has conducted in the City of Albuquerque elections this fall. 56.3% 37.4% 6.4%

ABQ CITYWIDE SPECIAL REFERENDUM DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKOUTS CATEGORY OVERALL
GENDER FEMALE DEM REP INDP MALE DEM REP INDP ETHNICITY ANGLO DEM REP INDP HISPANIC DEM REP INDP PARTY DEM REP INDP AREA WEST SIDE N/S VALLEY SE/MID HEIGHTS NE HEIGHTS IDEOL PROG LIB MOD CONSV UNSURE

SUPP% 27.4% 39% 24% 58% 38% 37% 26% 43% 45% 36% 23% 51% 32% 43% 23% 63% 78% 25% 51% 41%

OPPOSE% 56.3% 57% 74% 37% 53% 55% 66% 47% 45% 60% 75% 44% 60% 46% 66% 20% 17% 70% 42% 50%

UND% 6.4% 5% 3% 5% 9% 9% 8% 9% 10% 4% 2% 5% 8% 12% 11% 17% 6% 5% 7% 9%

36% 40% 32% 39% 21% 17% 29% 69% 44%

60% 49% 63% 54% 74% 81% 63% 26% 50%

4% 11% 5% 7% 5% 3% 8% 5% 6%

RELIGION CATHOLIC PROTESTANT OTHER 34% 42% 38% 57% 53% 54% 9% 5% 8%

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful