When Bear Markets End

www.skloff.com

The Turnaround of July 1982
In the spring of 1982: The U.S. economy was contracting The stock market was down Oil prices were very high Consumer morale was poor

www.skloff.com

The Turnaround of July 1982
By the summer of 1982: Inflation had declined to single digits Inflation was down from 14%+ in March of 1980 The Fed had cut rates for nearly a year The target rate was 9.5% This is down from a historic high 19% in June 1981 The Index of Leading Indicators had begun to climb

www.skloff.com

S&P 500 Went on a Tear

www.skloff.com

The Turnaround of July 2009
By the summer of 2009: The Index of Leading Indicators had begun to climb June 2009 was the third consecutive monthly rise The annualized rate of increase was 12.8% 6 of 7 recessions since 1960 ended with 12% gains If over, this 22-month recession is the longest since The Great Depression

www.skloff.com

Leading Indicators Signaling the Recession’s End

www.skloff.com

S&P 500 on a Tear Again – 03/09/09 to 07/24/09

www.skloff.com

Goodbye Bear!

www.skloff.com

Sources: Source: FactSet and Morningstar Encorr, Fidelity Investments, Institute of Supply Management, New York Times

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful