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KY-Sen Lake Research for MoveOn (Nov. 2013)

KY-Sen Lake Research for MoveOn (Nov. 2013)

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Nov 12, 2013
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Cellnda Lake


Alysla Snell

uavld Mermln

8oberL C. Meadow, Þh.u.

uanlel 8. CoLoff

!oshua L. ullbarrl

8lck A. !ohnson
+#'%," -%.# !"#$%&#'(

8oberL x. Plllman
/0%#1 2%'*'.%*3 411%.#"

Shannon Marshall
/0%#1 45#"*(%'6 411%.#"

1o: lnLeresLed ÞarLles
lrom: Lake 8esearch ÞarLners
8e: new Þoll 8eveals McConnell vulnerablllLles
uaLe: november 8, 2013

" #$%$&' (')'$*+,$ (-#.$/ 01 2+3$2/ 4567 8$&'-%3/ .0'$#( 10# 90.$:& %0&1+#;(
9+'%< 9%=0&&$22>( *$)3&$(( roughly a year ouL from LlecLlon uay.

• 1he daLa reveals a dead heaL beLween Allson Lundergan Crlmes and MlLch
McConnell among llkely voLers. 1he slLLlng SenaLor aLLracLs [usL 37° of Lhe
voLe, puLLlng hlm on equal fooLlng wlLh Crlmes' 37°. noL only LhaL, he lags
sllghLly behlnd Crlmes (27° Lo 29°) ln sLrong supporL. Meanwhlle, 19° of
voLers are undeclded, and Lhe Lhlrd parLy candldaLes absorb Lhe resL of Lhe
voLe (2° for ÞaLLerson, 4° for Marksberry).

• Cf course, Lhls maLchup ls predlcaLed on a McConnell vlcLory ln Lhe May CCÞ
Þrlmary. 1he MlnorlLy Leader leads 8evln Loday, 30° Lo 17°, however 8evln
remalns a relaLlve newcomer faclng off agalnsL a powerful, enLrenched
naLlonal pollLlclan. ln facL, 72° of 8epubllcans have no oplnlon or have never
heard of 8evln, so lL sLands Lo reason LhaL McConnell ls much closer Lo hls
celllng Lhan hls floor ln Lhe currenL scenarlo. Should 8evln declde Lo spend
some of hls personal forLune Lo bolsLer hls lmage, Lhe race may very well
close furLher, and aLLacks from boLh sldes of Lhe pollLlcal specLrum wlll llkely
weaken McConnell furLher ln Lhe meanLlme.

• Should 8evln emerge from Lhe May Þrlmary, Crlmes would sLand a very good
chance ln Lhe Ceneral, as she nearly doubles hls supporL Loday (38° Crlmes,
20° 8evln), wlLh nearly Lrlple Lhe sLrong supporL (30° Lo 11°).

Cn behalf of Moveon.org ÞollLlcal AcLlon, Lake 8esearch ÞarLners deslgned and admlnlsLered Lhls survey, whlch
was conducLed by phone uslng professlonal lnLervlewers. 1he survey reached a LoLal of 603 llkely 2014 Ceneral
LlecLlon voLers ln kenLucky. 1he survey was conducLed CcLober 24
Lhrough CcLober 29
, 2013. 1he margln of
error for Lhls poll ls +/-4.0°.
!*6# 7
• SenaLor McConnell's prospecLs look bleaker as we conslder some of Lhe lnLernals. Pls personal
favorablllLy raLlngs are underwaLer (42° favorable, 32° unfavorable, wlLh Lwlce as much
lnLenslLy on Lhe negaLlve slde). Lven more Lelllng, voLers glve hlm sLrlklngly negaLlve [ob
performance revlews (29° excellenL/good, 68° [usL falr/poor).

• When presenLed wlLh Lhe quesLlon of re-elecLlng McConnell, conslderlng someone else, or
replaclng hlm, a 43° plurallLy says lL prefers Lo replace hlm ouLrlghL, whlle [usL 27° plans Lo re-
elecL hlm.

• undeclded voLers look lncreaslngly lnaccesslble for Lhe endangered Lhe 8epubllcan SenaLor.
1oday, more Lhan Lhree-quarLers (77°) of undeclded voLers raLe hls [ob performance negaLlvely.
Cnly 6° of undeclded voLers belleve McConnell deserves re-elecLlon.

?0''0; @+&$: McConnell faces a precarlous seL of clrcumsLances: 1) weak [ob performance raLlngs, 2)
meager appeLlLe for hls re-elecLlon, 3) no capaclLy Lo generaLe any crossover appeal, 4) a Þrlmary
challenge on Lhe 8lghL from a well-funded opponenL wlLh 1ea ÞarLy supporL, 3) an undeclded voLe LhaL
appears openly hosLlle Lo hlm, and 6) a formldable opponenL ln SecreLary of SLaLe Allson Crlmes.
lndlvldually, any of Lhese facLors could lmperll McConnell, comblned, Lhey pose a serlous LhreaL Lo hls
re-elecLlon prospecLs.


1hls survey was commlssloned by MoveCn.org ÞollLlcal AcLlon.

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