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..

(CFSG)
, .
CFSG
150
. 9 ,
CESMAT,
,
. CFSG
, . (Fascicule
5), (Matheron) 1970 .
.
(Andre Journel) (Charles Huigbregts),
(Michael David) (Isobel Clark),
,
. . , ,
,

.
,
( ),
.
. ,

, ,
.
,
. ,
,
, ,
.

: (the support effect) (the
information effect). 2
. . 6
, .
, ,
.
.
1.
( )
.
.
2.
CFSG.
. (Malcolm Thurston) (Mike Harley),
. ,

(Michael Schmitt), (Chris


Roth) (Jane Bocquel)
.

, 1998

............................................................................. 9

1.1

................................................................................................................... 9

1.2

........................................................................................................................ 9

1.3
............................................................... 9
1.3.1
......................................................... 9
1.3.2
..................................................................................................... 10
1.3.3
( ) ................................ 10
1.3.4
.................................................................. 10
1.3.5
............................................... 10
1.3.6

........................................................................................................................ 11
1.3.7
...................................................................... 11
1.4

: ? ..................................................... 11

............................................................................................. 12
1.5
1.5.1
............................................................................................. 14
1.5.2
..................................................................................... 15
.................................................................................... 15
1.5.3
1.5.4
................................................................................................ 18
1.6
......................................................... 19
............................................... 19
1.6.1
.............................................................. 20
1.6.2
1.6.3
........................................................................................... 21
1.7

................................................................................................................ 22

............ 23

2.1

................................................................................................................. 23

2.2

.................................................. 23

2.3

.................................................................................................. 24

2.4

(intrinsic) .............................. 25

2.5

, ........................................................ 27

2.6

............................................................... 28

2.7

................................................................................................................ 31

3.

................................................................ 33

3.1

................................................................................................................. 33

3.2

...................................................................................... 33

3.3

............................................................................... 34

3.4

............................................................................................ 34

3.5
............................................................................................................... 36
3.5.1
............................................................................... 36
3.5.2
( ) ........................................... 38
3.6

................................................................................................... 38

3.7

.............................................................................................. 39

3.8

..................................................................................... 40

3.9
................................................................................................... 40
3.9.1
.................................................. 41
3.11 ........................................................................................................ 43
3.12 ..................................................................................... 45
3.12.1 ...................................................................................................... 45
3.12.3 ......................................................................................... 45
3.12.4 ..................................................................................................... 46
3.12.5 ............................................................................................................ 46
3.12.6 ..................................................................................................... 47
3.12.7 ............................................................... 47
3.12.8 ............................................................................. 47
3.12.9 ........................................................................... 47
3.12.10 ............................................................ 48
3.13 ,
.................................................................................................................................................. 48
3.14 ..................................................................................................................... 49

4.

.... 55

4.1

................................................................................................................. 55

4.2

: ....................................... 55

4.3

.............................................................................................................. 55

4.4

................................................................................................. 56

4.5

1: .......................................................... 56

4.6

2: . 57

4.7

.............................................................................................. 60

4.8

................................................................................... 61

4.9
.............................................................................................. 62
4.9.1
............................................................................................................... 62
4.9.2
- hiccups ............................................................................ 63
4.9.3
............................................................................................................ 63

4.10

................................................................................................................ 64

5.

............................................. 66

5.1

................................................................................................................. 66

................................................................................. 66
5.2
5.2.1
1: ........................................................................... 66
5.2.2
, ........................................................... 67
5.2.3
............................................................ 70
5.3

...................................................................................................................... 70

5.4
................................................................................ 71
5.4.1
........................................................ 71
5.4.2
........................................................................................ 72
5.4.3
................................................ 72
5.4.4
............................................................................. 73
5.4.5
....................................................................... 73
5.5

- (M. Harley) ........................... 74

5.6

: (. Thurston) ............... 76

6.
..................................................................... 78
6.1

................................................................................................................. 78

6.2
............................................................. 78
6.2.1
................................................................ 78
6.3

............................................................ 81

6.4

v V ....................................................................... 81

6.5
: .............................................................. 83
6.5.1
................................................................................................................ 83
6.6

: .................................................................... 84

6.7
: ................................. 85
6.7.1
................................................................................................................ 85
6.9

................................................................................................................ 85

7. ........................................................... 88
7.1

................................................................................................................. 88

7.2 .................................................................................................................. 88
7.3 ............................................................................ 89
7.4

....................................................................... 89

7.5

..................................................................................................... 91

7.6

OK ....................... 94

7.7
: .................................................................. 95
7.7.1
................................................................................................................ 95
7.8

...................................................................................... 97

7.9

........................................................................................................ 97

7.10

............................................................................................... 99

7.11

................................................................................... 100

7.12

........................................................................... 102

7.13 , .... 103


7.13.1 ............................................................ 103
7.14

.............................................................................................................. 105

.......... 108

8.1 ..................................................................................................................... 108


8.2

.................................................................................................................... 108

8.3

................................................................................................ 109

8.4
.............................. 111
8.4.1
....................................................................................... 111
8.4.2
................................................................. 112
8.5

.................................................................................................... 114

8.6

........................................................................................ 116

8.7
....................................................... 118
8.7.1
....................................... 119
8.8

........................................................................................... 119

C ... 122

9.1

............................................................................................................... 122

9.2 .................................................................................. 122


7.14.1 ................................................................................ 122
9.3

.......................................... 123

9.4

........................................... 123

9.5
......................................... 125
9.5.1
? .................................. 126
9.5.2
? .................................................... 127

8
9.6
......................................................... 129
9.6.1
? .............................. 130

10.

.................. 132

10.1

............................................................................................................... 132

10.2

? ................. 132

10.3

................................................................................... 133

10.4

......................................................................... 134

10.5 ......................................................................................... 135


10.5.1 ........................................................................ 135
10.5.2 .................................. 137
10.6

............................................................ 140

10.7 ............................................................................ 141


10.7.1 1 ..................................................................................................... 142
10.7.2 500 ................................................................................................... 142
10.8

.............................................................................................................. 143

1:
.............................. 145
1 ? ................. 145
1.1 ................................................................................................ 145

2: ......................... 148

2.1 ................................................................. 148


2.2 ............................................................................... 148
2.3 ..................................................................................................... 148

1
1.1

,
,
.
,
.
.

.
1.2

30
,
( , , .).
, ,
,
() .
,
, ,
, ,
.
, ,

.

,

.
, (Danie Krige),
(Herbert Sichel)
(Witwatersrand) .
- ,
, (Georges Matheron),
.


.
1.3
1.3.1

10

-

.
,
,
.
1.3.2


, -
. ,
. , , ,
, : 0.1%
1%. ,
.

.
1.3.3

( )

( )

, .
,
,
.
(
), ,

1.3.4

,

.
() ,
, : , , ..
, ..

. , ,
, , F.S.I.
. - (
), .
1.3.5

11

.

.
,
. 2 5
. ,
, .
1.3.6



, ,
.. ,
,
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. 9
,
.
1.3.7


,
()
.
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.
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,


.
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1.4

: ?

12


, :
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?. ,
.

.
1.5

(
)
, .
,
, . ,
.
. 64 , 1
1 (.1.1.). 16- 2 2
1 , . 48
.
735
45
125
167

450

337

95

245

124

430

230

460

75

20

32

20

1.1. 1 1
2 2
16 ,
2 2 (.. ,
). 16
.
(polygonal) . 1.2.a .
16 .
, ; ,
, , ,

13

...
. 1.2.b.

735

45

125

167

337

95

245

124

430

230

460

75

20

32

20

450

a)

b)
1.2. (a) ; (b)

442

190

142

204

354

276

212

279

189

226

216

271

14

99

81

88

125

1.3.
(. 1.3.).

. ,
.
.
1.5.1


, ,
, . ,
300.
301 , 1,
299 - 1.
,
.
,
.
, . , 300 (
). . . . 1.4.a.
: 735 + 450 + 337 + 430 + 460 - 5 x 300 = 912
,
, .
2 2 . 1.4.b.
. : 505, 270,
328, 220 263 : 735, 450, 337,
430 460.
: 505 + 270 + 328 + 220 + 263 1500 = 86
912 ,
86 . -
. .
, ;
175, ,
196. ,
.

15

735

45

125

167

337

95

245

124

430

230

460

75

20

32

20

505

143

88

207

270

328

171

411

102

220

154

263

101

54

44

155

450

a)

b)
1.4. (a) (b)
. ( )
300 .
.
1.5.2

,
(.. ,
). , (505, 328
411), 344. ,
(912), ,
. - 196
175 ( ). 10% ,
- 344.
,
, . ,
, , 2- :
.
1.5.3

16

, .
.
,
( Y) ( X)
.
, ,
45 . , .
, .
=

300

300

. 1.5. .
.
300 ,
300.
, ,
, .
X=300.
.
, 300.
Y=300 .
. 2
:
1. > 300; > 300.
, .
.

17

2. < 300; < 300.


.
.
3. > 300; < 300.
;
.
.
4. < 300; > 300.
.


.
.
, . 1.6. ,

.
1.0 (.. - 45 ),
1.0 .
. .

(. ).
, . 8
,
.
600

500
400
300
200
100
0
0

100

200

300

400 500 600


a)

700 800

18

600

500
400
300
200
100
0
0

100

200

300

400 500 600

700 800


b)

1.6. ;
(a) (b) . ,
( = )
1.5.4


. 1 1
, : 2 2 . , ,
. 2 2 6 4-
() 1 1 . 1.4. 1.7.
, ( - 1 1
) , .
735 325 45 140 125 175 167 485
540 420 260 128 20

30

450 200 337 190 95

260 245 279

180 250 380 405 250 80

105 70

515 605

124 120 430 175 230 120 460 260


40

135 240 35

130 135 160 170

75

95

32

95

20

450

45

58

90

200 35

20

35

100 53

1.7. 64- () 1 1

19

,
, . 300,
1 1, - 2 2.
(..
)
,
, .
,
.
.
,

. ,
. , ,
, .
;


.
,
.
1.6

,

.
, , -
( )
.
1.6.1


(Sabourin) (1975) (Wood) (1976).
.
,
.
.
9.8 %, ,
. ,
,
. , ,

.
-
.
.

20

18 ( )
2 (Witbank Mine).
:
1. ,
2. ,
3. ,
4. .
( 133
, - 101).

( 1.1.). ,
, .
1.1. ,
(1976) 2 -
(South African Chamber of Mines).


133
101
234
3-
7,5
2,69
5,42

7,38
1,84
4,99

5,79
3,17
4,66

4,89
1,38
3,38
1.6.2


,
. , ,
(Rendu) (1979), (Krige and Magri)
(1982), - .

. 5000
(Hartebeestfontein Mine).
(25 ),
125 125 25 ,

. 25

. , 4808
.
,
,
(
() ).

21

,
( - )
. 45 .

, .
, .
, 1.0
,
.
().
, ,

, .


(Lorraine), .
.
1.6.3


(the Ore Reserve
Estimation Symposium), 1986.
, (Raymond and
Armstrong) (1986), ,
(Blackwell and Johnston),
.
, 17
. (

).
,
.
:
1.
, ..
-
.
2. ,

.
3.

, ,
, .

22

.
,
.
1.7

1.1 , ,
, ,
, .
16
. ?
( )
. (
) ,
45 (.. 1.0).
a)
30

30

20

45

10

b)
30 10

20

50

50

35

20

50

35

40

25

35

25

40

15

40

30

15

40

20

20

35

10

10

15

35

20

35

20

25

15

40

15

20

45

25

15

25

45

30

40

10

30

30

35

15

35

25

15

35

20

10

10

35

20

10

c)

55

d)

1.2. , , (a, b
c) (d)

23

2
2.1

,

. (
(the weaker intrinsic hypothesis).
.
.
,
.

.

.
2.2

,
, , ,
,
. .
.
(Genetic models).

.
,
(Jacod and Joathon) (1970 a, b)
. , ,
,
.
- .

. , , (Hu,
Joseph & Dubrule) (1994),
,

.
,
.
(Trend surfaces).
,
, ,
.
,
.

24

, ,
,
, ,
, ,
. ,

.
, (Gomez and
Hazen) (1970).
,
. ,
,
,
.
,
,
. ,

,
. .
.
(Matheron) (1963, 1965),
: ,
() ,
, .
, ,
, -
. , .

,
(drift),
. ,
-
.
, .
.
2.3

x
z(x) Z(x).
, m(x). , , z(x)
, .
Z(x).

. (:
, ).
, -

25

, ,
, .

, ..
Z(x1), Z(x2), ..., Z(xk), k, x1, x2, ..., xk.
- ,

.
.
,
. 1 .
1 : ,
.

, , , ,
.
,
- , ,
, , ;
- ;
, ; , , .
, ,
, ,
,
,
,
- ,
,
,
,

.
, ,
- (,
Cu Co), (nematode) ,
- ,
, ;
,
- .
.
2.4

(intrinsic)

, ,
.
,

26

. h Z(x1), Z(x2), ...,


Z(xk) Z(x1+h), Z(x2+h), ..., Z(xk+h).
.
,
,
- , ,
( )
.
. ,
( ) Z(x) x.
,
E(Z(x))=m(x)=m

[2.1]

-, x x+h
h, x. ,
E[Z(x) Z(x+h)]-m2=C(h)

[2.2]

,
, C(0).
,
. , ,
.
,
.
(1973) (Delfiner) (1976).
,
. , ,
.
(1978)
.
.
(1963, 1965) (intrinsic) . ,
. ,
Z(x+h)-Z(x)
x.
E[Z(x+h)-Z(x)]=0

[2.3]

Var[Z(x+h)-Z(x)]=2(h)

[2.4]

(h) ( -
).
, .

, - .
, , ,
(h) C(h) .

27

, ,
(.. )
. (
) , ,
, .
/
. ,

. ,
0.
,
,
.
2.5

,
, .
.

,
(.. ). ,
.
, ,


. -

. .

28

%S

Km
0

2.1. .
8 , , -
. 2-5 ,
, .

.
. ,
. ,
, ,
, ,
. ,
100 100,
200 60. 500 500
100 100 .
.
.
2.6

,

.
(: ,
). .
2.

29

C(0)=2

[2.5]

C(h)=C(-h)

[2.6]

C(h) C(0)

[2.7]

, ,
.
-
:
(h)=C(0)-C(h)

[2.8]

. :

2(h ) = E {Z(x + h ) Z(x )}

= E (Z(x + h ) m ) + (Z(x ) m ) 2(Z(x + h ) m )(Z(x ) m )


= 2C(0 ) 2C(h )
2

[2.9]

. ,
. 2.2.
.

Y(h)

C(h)

2.2.
(),
.
2 : .

30

. m
. , :
[2.10]
C(h ) = E[(Z(x + h ) m )(Z(x ) m )]
h=0
[2.11]
C(0 ) = E[(Z(x + 0 ) m )(Z(x ) m )] = 2
.
[2.12]
C(- h ) = E[(Z(x - h ) m )(Z(x ) m )]
t=x-h,
[2.13]
C(- h ) = E[(Z(t ) m )(Z(t + h ) m )] = (h )
.
,
[2.14]
C(h ) C(0 ) C(h ) C(0 )

2
0 E {Z(x + h ) Z(x )}

= E (Z(x + h ) m ) + (Z(x ) m ) 2(Z(x + h ) m )(Z(x ) m )


= 2C(0 ) 2C(h )
[2.15]
C(h ) C(0 )
[2.16]
,

2
0 E {Z(x + h ) + Z(x )}
2

C(h ) C(0 )

C(h) C(0)

[2.17]
[2.18]

(Schwartzs inequality).
, ,
. ,

. ,

. ,

.
,
(h )
=0
h h 2
lim

[2.19]

.
(1972). , ,
, h, .

31

2.7

.

( )
, - .
; .
2.1. Z(x) .
C(h). Z*
:

Z = 1 Z(x 1 ) + 2 Z(x 2 )

[2.20]

1 2 x1 x2 .
Z*?
C(h).
Z**
Z = i Z(x i )

[2.21]

Z**? ,
:

Var Z = i2 Var Z(x i ) + 2 i jC(x i x j )


i
j> i

= i jC(x i x j )

( )

[2.22]

2.2. Z(x) - , Z*

100 100:
X1

X14

X2

X3

Z = 0.5 Z(x1 ) + 0.5 Z(x 2 ) + 0.2 Z(x 3 ) + 0.1 Z(x 4 )

[2.23]

Z*, Z(x)
:
C(h ) = 2.5 exp( h /200 )

[2.24]

32

( ,
).

3.

.

(, , , ,
..). .
,
.

. ,

.

2 :

(h ) = 0.5 Var[Z(x + h ) Z(x )]

[3.1]

Z(x+h)-Z(x) , (h) . ,

(h ) = 0.5 E[Z(x + h ) Z(x )]

[3.2]

x x+h n- , n 1, 2
3. , n=2 (.. ), x (x1, x2) h .
, h1 h2, ,
h .
,
. ,
. 3.1. .

(h )

3.1. , , (sill),
, (range)

34

:
- ( h=0, Z(x+h)=Z(x)).
.
- h,
- , ,
. .
.


,
.
( ), .
, . (h)
. , :

(h ) = 0.5Var [Z (x + h ) Z (x )]

= 0.5 [Var (Z ( x + h )) + Var (Z (x ))] = 2

[3.3]

. (. . 3.2.)
.
.
.

.
. ,
.
,
-.
.
(h )

h
3.2.

35


. h,

. . 3.3.
.
1. .

,
.
.
.
2. . ,
, , , , .
3. .. (h) , h 0.
,
.
4. . .
Z(x+h) Z(x)
h, .
. , , ,
.
,
, .
,
,
.
( ) .
, . ,
,
.

, ,
, ,

.

36
(h )

(h )

( h) h

(h) h

h 0

h 0

(h )

(h )


h
c

h
d

3.3. . (a)
;
(b) .
(c, d) ,
.

,
(..
). ,

. :
.

3.4. .

, , ,
, .

37

(h )

(h )

1
(h ) = C1 h

a2

a1

a)

( h ) = C2 h

h
b)

3.4.
,
. (. 3.5.).
( 2- ),
( ).
,
.
2

1
1

3.5. ,

,
, . 3.5. (a).
1 1 (h ) ,
:

(h ) = 1 h12 + k 2 h 22

[3.4]

h1 h2 h, k , ,
:
k=

slope 1
range 1
k =
(range , slope )
range 2
slope 2
[3.5]

38

,
.
,
. , ,

,
, 45 , . 3.5.b.
( )
. ,
,
, .
.
,
,
:

0

(h

2
1

+ h 22 + h 32

1 (h 3 )

[3.6]

(h)
(h ) = 0 (h ) + 1 (h )

[3.7]


2, ,
,
, .
, :
(h )
0 h
h2

[3.8]

(h )

h
3.6. ,

39

, ,
, h2. (. 3.6.).

2
0.5 E(Z(x + h ) Z(x )) , ,
( ) .
, . :
E[Z(x+h)-Z(x)]2
= Var[Z(x+h)-Z(x)]
+ (E[Z(x+h)-Z(x)])2
[3.9]
= + (
)2
,
.

,
. . 3.7.
,
.
. ,
. ,
.
(h )

h


3.7. ,
.

,
. ,
, .. h=0. (.. h<1 )
,
.
(.. h<100 )

.

40


, ,
( )
.
.
, ,
.
,


.


, ,
, .
,
.
,
. .
, (Serra)
(1968) (Lorraine)
.
,

.
.

, -
.
,
.
, .
.
,
, - . ,
,
. ,
, . ,
,
,
. , ,
, ,
. 5.

41


.
,
. ,
,
.


(.. ), . , Z(x)
C(h). Z*
Z* = i Z(x i )

[3.10]

i xi . ,
Var (Z *) = E(Z * E(Z *))

[3.11]

, m Z(x), E(Z *) = m i .
i

Var(Z *) = E i (Z(x i ) m ) =

i
2
2
= 1 C(x1 x1 ) + 2 C(x 2 x 2 ) + ... + 2n C(x n x n ) + 21 2 C(x1 x 2 ) + ... + 2 n 1 n C(x n 1 x n )

Var (Z *) = i j C(x i x j )
i

[3.12]

.
C(h)
.
, ,
.
.
, .
, .

=0

[3.13]

,
, +1 1.
, , ,
. 3

.
,
.

42

Var ( i Z(x i )) = i j (x i x j )

[3.14]

,
.
x1, x2, xk, 1, 2, k, i = 0 ,

3:
.
-, ,
, 0,
.
, , :

Z(x ) = [Z(x ) Z(0)]


i

[3.15]
:
Var i Z(x i ) = i j Cov Z(x i ) Z(0), Z(x j ) Z(0 )
[3.16]

Var Z(x i )Z(x j ) = Var Z(x i ) Z(0) + Z(0) Z(x j ) =

= Var[Z(x i ) Z(0 )] + Var Z(x j ) Z(0 ) 2Cov Z(x i ) Z(0), Z(x j ) Z(0 )

[3.17]

]
= Var[Z(x ) Z(0)] + Var[Z(x ) Z(0 )] Var[Z(x ) Z(x )] =
= 2(x ) + 2(x ) 2(x x )
2Cov Z(x i ) Z(0), Z(x j ) Z(0) =
i

[3.18]
[3.16], :

Var i Z(x i ) = i j Z(x i ) Z(0), Z(x j ) Z(0) =

= j i (x i ) + i j (x j ) i j (x i x j )

..

=
i

= 0,

43

Var ( i Z(x i )) = i j (x i x j )
[3.19]
,
, 0,
[3.12]
-.

i j (x i x j ) 0

[3.20]

- .
, ,
,
,
0. , ,
. ,
, ,
.
.
,
0.
,
.
3.11
,
,

.
;
.
,
,
,
. .
,
,
. .
,
, - , . 3.8.

44

(h )

h
3.8. ,

,
,
. ,
.

, (Armstrong and Diamond)
(1984).
, ,
.
, , .
3.9., ,
. 3.11 ,
, 3.10
.
(h )

h
3.9. ,



, , ,
.

.
, ,

45

,
.
. , 3.13
, ,
.
3.12

.
,
.
.
3.12.1
0, h = 0
(h ) =
C, h > 0

[3.21]

( )
, .
3.12.2
h
h 3
3
1

C
3 , h < a

(h ) = 2 a 2 a

C, h a

[3.22]

, , .
,
:
. ,
2
,
a .
3
.
3.12.3

h
(h ) = C1 exp

[3.23]

3a.
95% .
a. ,
,
. 3.10

46

.
,
,
.
(h )

(h )

h
b.

a.

3.10. (a) 1.0


1.0 (b) 1.0
0.33 (.. 1.0)
3.12.4
(h ) = C h

c 0<2

[3.24]

, (h ) = h , .

=0.5

=1.7

a.

b.

3.11. (a) (b)


=0.5, 1.0 1.7
3.12.5

h 2

(h ) = C 1 exp 2

[3.25]

47

1.73a.
. ,
, .
3.12.6
,
, , ,
.

C 7r 2 8.75r 3 + 3.5r 5 0.75r 7 , r < 1


(h ) =
C,

[3.26]

r=h/a.
3.12.7
(h ) = C(1 exp( r ) J 0 (2 r2 ))

[3.27]

r = h/a, r2 = h/ J0 .
.
3.12.8

.
.
sin r

[3.28]
(h ) = C1

r=h/a.
, , r
, . [sin(r)]/r
/180=0.0174532.

3.12.
3.12.9

48

1
(h ) = C1

1+ r2

, r=h/a.

1.5

[3.29]

3.12.10

[3.20]
(h ) = C1
2 0.5

1+ r

r=h/a.

.

3.13 ,

, ,
.
, -
.
, ,
, .

?
, (
) : ,
, . (. 3.13. 3.16.)
.
, .
200 200 .
- ( )
.
. ,
, 400
turning bands N(0,1).
.
(Journel) (Huijbregts) (1978) (Lantuejoul)
(1994).
, ,
,
.
, ,
.
, ,
.

. , ,
,
, .

49


,
,
.
.


, ,
,


.
, ,
.
3.14
.
.
3.1 .
300 2. h= -500
h= +500 , (-h)= (h).
y.
, ?
, ,

.
3.13. ,

3.14.

3.15. ,
3.16.

3.2

100 2.
?
500 .
.
3.3 .
, 3.1 3.2,

50

h. ,
.
3.4 .
100 2.
? h=
-500 h= +500.
, .
? ,
? ?
3.5 .
1 ,

(h)=C(0)-C(h)
, h2 x2
+y2, C(h) : exp(-x2) exp(-y2).
?
, , ,
, .
3.6 , .
.
, C, , a.
, 0.5
10. a C
,
. , C=50 a=1 5 5
.
, 10.
a C.
.
. ,
,
. ,
( .. - ).

.
3.7. , , x1 x2, 100 .
: Z*=Z(x1)+Z(x2), Z(x)
, 250
3.
, 25 250?

51

,
3.0? , 25?
3.8. :
Z* = 1Z(x1 ) + 2 Z(x 2 ) + 3 Z(x 3 ) + 4 Z(x 4 )
1, 2, 3 4 , x1, x2, x3 x4
30 40. Z(x) - 100,
4.0 1.0. Z*
, 1= 2=1.0 3= 4=-1.0.
,
? . ,
0.25?
3.9.
,
. .
0.8, 0.8
1.0. , 0,
:
Z* = Z(x1 ) 0.5 Z(x 2 ) 0.5 Z(x 3 )

1.0

x1

0.8

0.8

0.2
0.8

1.0

x2

1.0

, ,
,

(,
).
3.10 .

.

, - .

x3

52

. 3.11
.

(h )

1.0

C(h)
2

1 1, 8 6 (48 ).
+1 1 ,
. ,
.
2 .
. :
, ,
2 .
,
,
. ,
,
, .
.

.
,
.
,
.
3.11 .
,
.
, x0, [0, ],
. , Y(x),
m 2.
.

53

Y(x)

x0

, , x x+h, ,
, .
, 0, h > :

1 h / .
, E[Y(x + h ) Y(x )] = 2 , h > ,
. , , Y(x)
2/ .
2

3.12 .
.
, .
, x0 [0, ],
,
.

x0

x1

x2

x3

, Y(x)
, m
2. . ,
2 .
3.13 .
,
.
. ,
V,
V. V. ,
V V , .
Y(x) ,
D x. ,
.
: x x+h D,
, Y(x) Y(x+h) .
,
, :

xn

54

V1

V3

V2

, N(V) V,
E(Y(x + h ) Y(x )) = E[(N(V1 ) + N(V2 )) (N(V2 ) + N(V3 ))]
2

, V2,
.
V2 =

3 3h
h3
+
D 1

6 2D 2D 3

3.14 .
, .
Wi - ,
+1 1 . Y(n)
n Wi n.
n

Y(n ) = Wi
i =0

, Y(n) ,
n,
. , .

55

4.

, , . ,
,
, -
. .
,
. (outliers),
, .
:
,
:
* =

1 N (h )
[Z(x i + h ) Z(x i )]2

2N(h ) i =1

[4.1]

xi , Z(xi) N(h)
(xi, xi +h), h,
. ,
,
, .
1 .
,

, .
.
,
- , 50%,
.
,
, (),
.

,
.
(lag) ,
.
.


.

56

(Z(x i ) Z(x i + h )) ,
.
1. xi,
.
2 , . . 4.2.
2


, ,
, .
.
, ,
( )
.
, ,
, .

.
.

.
,
.
1:
[4.1],
.
5 .
8

4.1. , 5
.
(5) :
* =

1
2 2 + 2 2 + 12 + 3 2 + 12 + 2 2 + 5 2 + 6 2 + 12 + 4 2 + 12 + 3 2 = 4.625
2 12

[4.2]
, *(10) *(15) 4.82
6.00. , ,
( 4.3.). ,
;
. 4.0,
, , 5.

57

(
) (..
),
.
, 1, 7
17 70.
(5-7)2 (5-17)2 (17-2)2, (5-70)2 (70-2)2.

, .
.
2:

4.1 56 ,
.
4 .
.
,
, , .
, 2 .

4.1.


26
23
22
21
19
18
17
15

22
20
17
15
18
16
14
13

19
17
18
20
15
10
10
11

14
20
19
18
15
16
13
10

16
14
18
20
18
14
13
17

19
23
25
20
23
18
15
16

16
21
20
18
22
20
14
15

14
17
19
13
20
18
17
11

58

Z(x)

I=1, N-1

J=I+1, N

4.2. -,

10

15

59

4.3.
5. ;
.
4.2. (h )
, (N)

-
-

4.74

N(1)
56

8.49

48

10.28

N(3)
(3)
40

13.27

N(4) ( 4)
32

5.88

56

9.11

48

9.13

40

10.77

32

7.69
7.55

49
49

12.24
12.02

36
36

18.36
10.00

25
25

18.16
14.00

16
16

(1)

( 2N(2)
)

4.2.
, ,
.
, .
.
4.4.

20
18
16
14
-
-
-
-

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0

4.4.
,
, .
(. 4.5.).
3
3. ,
. , .

60

4.5. ,
,
3 3

:
, ,
,
. (Chauvet) (1982)

.

,
.
.
,
1.
12 ( ): 4, 4, 1, 9, 1, 4, 25, 36,
1, 16, 1 9. 11 10
.
2. 4.6.a .
,
5. ,
,
6 .
, .
.
,
, ,
7% - 17% (. 4.6.b).
, ,
.
(..
) ,
.
4.6. ,
(a) 1 (b) - , 7
17.

61

.
( 1.0 5)

.
, ,
. :
,
,
,
,
.
( )
,
.
- ;

.
.

.
.
, (
).
, ,
.
( ),
, .
. ,
.

, .
-
.
,

. .
-, (
, ). ,
,
. -,
, ,
. -,
(.. , )
, ,
. .

62


, .

,
, ,
.
, .
(Armstrong) (1984)
. .


,
. Bowen
Basin (, 1980)
( , FSI).
,
. (. 4.7.). .
, (207
) .
.
.
,
().
, ,
.
.

4.7. .
, 2 ,

:
. : -,
,

63

, -,
,
.
, (,
)
.

. ,
.

.
""
( (Cressie) (Hawkins), 1980;
(Delfiner), 1980).
NATO,
Lake Tahoe 1983 ( Verly 1984).
- hiccups

, 40
Bowen Basin , "-
" (. 4.8.a). -, h=150 h=280
,
. ,
.

, (. 4.8.b).
. , ,
. 100 .

100 200 300 400 500

4.8. (a)
, (b) ,
. (160 320)

,
" ",
. 4.9
" ".
, .
,

64

, .
,
. ,

0.00001

0.5.
-0.3 +0.3, 0.5
,
. :
0.001 0.00001,

( 0.3).

4.9. " "


- .

. , ,
,
.
, -
.
1,
,
1 1 ,
.
. , ,
, ,
, .

.

"" , .
,
.
( ,
),
.

4.1 . 4.10 13 ,
5. 12
13, . , 10
, *(5)=4.7.
. ,

65

, .

.
8

4.10.

. 4.2 . 13 ,
5, (90), .

. ,
( 4.3.)
8

90

4.11. ,
. 4.3 .
35 ,
100 100 . ?
4.3. 100
100
3.6

2.8

4.1

4.6

5.3

3.8

4.2

3.6

3.5

5.2

4.5

6.1

4.4

4.0

5.1

3.8

4.9

3.3

5.7

6.2

6.3

4.2

4.0

5.6

4.2

4.9

5.3

4.4

5.

, ,

.
-,

. ? ?
?


.
,
.
,
.

.
,
.
,
1
, .


; ..
.
, -,

,
-,

, -,
.
,
. 4
.
1:
, ,
, ,
, . ,
,
.
,
, .

,
.

67

,
, :
1. ,
2. ,
,
3.
. ,
?
() ?
4. ,
,
5. ( )
.
,
, .

, ,
, ,
. ,
, ,
, ..

.
2.
,
,
. -,
.
:
,
,
,
,

.
. 2 ,
.
.
4: .
1: .
,
, ,
:

68

- ,

,
- ,
..,
- ..
:

- .
,
.
(, ,
,
(scatter diagrams)). :
( )

(
)
2: .
3: .
4:
. ""
, .

( ).
, ,
.
,
.
.
(
,
). ,
; ,

. .

, 2
5 /, 3 10 /. ,
2.5,

5 + 10
= 7.5 g/t
2

[5.1]

69
2

5 /
10 /

5.1.
:
2 5 + 3 10
= 8 g/t
2+3

[5.2]

(7.5 /)
,
. , ,
, ..
. .

( ) ,

. , , ,
,
: **
*.
.

. ,
, - ,
,
.
(),
. ,
, .
, ,
,
,
.
.

,

70

,
. .
.

,
,
.
, .

.
, , ..
.

.
, .
- , , .
,
.

: -
. 40
. 15
( , ,
() ) .. - .
,
, .. - . ,
,
(Wackernagel) (1995).
: - ,
, , -,
,
15.
(M. Harley), CFSG
1. ,
.
, ,
. ,
,
.
(M. Thurston), CFSG .
. ,
.
CFSG (Cycle de Formation Specialisee en Geostatistique) 9
,

1

71

(Witwatersrand) ,

.

;
15.
40 ;
, . 5.2.a. 485
15 ,
, .
.
5.2. (a) ; (b) 485
15 .
.

,
15 135. 5.1

. ,
, , -, (
5.3.a).
5
4
3
2
1
0

20

40

60 80

5.3. (a) (b)


.
5.1.
Lag

15m

30m

45m

60m

75m

90m

105m

120m

135m

Pairs

38S

329

284

247

209

187

169

153

139

2.75

3.57

3.82

4.49

4.56

4.97

4.77

4.80

5.13

72


(
5.3.b). (4.5);
, .
() 80 (.. 20
).

15,
. , ,
, 15;
,
.


.
5.3.a , 4.5
65-70, .
2.
2.0
4.5 65,
. 5.4.a ,
1.8
65 4.5,
(. 5.4.a,
b).
5.4.
; b -
1.8, 65
4.5, a -
.

,
.
,
15. .
5.5, , 10
65 ( ) 1.8 2.7,
. ,
.

73

5.5.: ,
; (a) 10 65,
1.8 2.7 ; (b)
1.8, 65 2.7


. ( 5.2.) ,
80.

, -, -, - -, 22.5
, .
,
. , 15 ,
. 5.6.a ,

( 5.6.b). ,
.

,
,
. ,
,
.

5.6. (a)
. ,
(b).
(. 5.7),
.
1.8 ,
,

74

2.7 65, 6
.
,
.
5.2 ,

9.
5.7.

5.2. ,
,

1.2

80

65 (40?)

1.5

400

65

- (M.
Harley)

: , ,
. ,
.
,
70 . 10 60.
170 ,
1. 5,
.

, 20 .

. ,
( ,
) (. . 5.9.d, e, f), .
,
, 3 5.
5. 5.8. 7000
. 1.13.
.
,
(. 5.9.a, b, c).
,
.

75

5.8.

0.0 5.0

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

76

5.9.
: (a, b c)
(d, e f)
5.3.

1-

10

30

2-

18

15

120

,
.
10% , 40%
(1-) 50%
(2-).
:
(. Thurston)

. () cmg/t,
15 15; ,
.

,
. ,
(.
5.10).

5.10.

. (
) . 5.11.
-
( 220),
.
75) 150 160 300 320.
,

77

.
, .

- ( ).
75, 150,
300.
,
. - ,
150.
, ,
,
150.
.

5.11. ; (a)
(b)
,
. ,

100 .
.
80 -
200 -.
, 35% .
,
,
, ,
.
,
,

(. 5.12).
,
. ,
.
5.12.

78

6.


(.. ),
.

: 1 1 2 2.
, ,
,
.

v V.
. ,
. ,

.


, ,
. ,
, .
,
, .
, 2- (..
50) ,
, .
, , .
, ,
? . ,
. , ,
.

,
, 1. 6.1
64 1*1,
2*2, 4-
1*1. 1000
, Sandjivy (1980). ,
(201).
..
. 2*2 16,641,
, 1*1 (27,592).
, 25%

79

.
, .
. 6.1 6.2 , .
.
.
, .

. 1,
(
), , ,

.

, , ,
,
, . 6.1 6.2.
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2

6.1. 64- 1 1

72
5

62
5

52
5

42
5

32
5

22
5

12
5

25

80

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2

72
5

62
5

52
5

42
5

32
5

22
5

25

12
5

6.2. 16- 2 2
6.1. (a) 1 1 (b)
- 2 2

735

325

45

140

125

175

167

485

540

420

260

128

20

30

105

70

450

200

337

190

95

260

245

278

180

250

380

405

250

80

515

605

124

120

430

175

230

120

460

260

40

135

240

35

190

135

160

170

75

95

20

35

32

95

20

450

200

35

100

59

45

58

90

505

143

88

207

270

328

171

411

102

220

154

263

81

101

54

44

155


, .
, v () V().
, , .
, z(x)
Z(x). V
,
.
mv =

1
z(x )dx
V V

[6.1]

V
s 2 (0 V ) =

1
(z(x ) m v )2 dx

V
V

[6.2]

0 .
, z(x) V
, s 2 (0 V )
:

2 (0 V ) = E s 2 (0 V )

6.3]

, :
2 (0 V ) =

1
V2

(x y )dxdy

[6.4]

, x y
_

V. (V, V ) .

2 (0 V ) = (V, V )

[6.5]

(V, V ) V. 6.1
, .
v V

82

, ,
v:
1
[6.6]
Z v (x ) = Z(x + t )dt
v v
Z v (x )
V. v , V
, v , V
.

6.3. v x V
v V 2 (v V )
:

1
2
2 (v V ) = E (Z v (x ) m v ) dx

V v
[6.7]
, :
1
1
2 (v V ) = 2 (x y )dxdy 2 (x y )dxdy = (V, V ) (v, v )
V VV
v vv
[6.8]

[6.5] [6.8] ,
.
2 (v V ) = (V, V ) (v, v ) = 2 (0 V ) 2 (0 v )
[6.9]
v, V V',
v V V' :
2 (v V') = 2 (v V ) + 2 (V V')
[6.10]
, v , V , V' -
.
, "

". ,
(. . 6.1). v 1 1,
V - 2 2.

83

:
2 (v V' ) = 12x1 = 27,592

[6.11]

2 (V V') = 2 22 = 16,641.1

[6.12]

2 (v V ) ,
. 10,951. ,
27,592-16,641 , ,
. ,
v ,
V.
:
,
,
. , ,

.
.
.
,
300 5.0.
60 100 ( v);
.
60. V 60 600.
(v, v ) (V, V ) , ,
.

(v, v ) (V, V ) . ,

.
6.1 6.2 , . :
(v, v ) = 1.05 (V, V ) = 3.40

[6.13]

2 (v V ) .
2 (v V ) = (V, V ) (v, v ) = 2.35
[6.14]

( ) 1.53.
m 2 , ,
3 (.. 2*1.53)

84


.
Chica-Olmo Laille (1984) Deraisme de Fouquent (1984).
.
:
Z(x) ,
. V
Zv (x) V. ,
:
v (h ) = (V, Vh ) (V, V )
[6.15]

Vh V, h
( h), (V, Vh )
Vh
V.

Vh
V
6.4. V, h Vh
h V,
V Vh
. , V l,
H-l h+l. , h
V, h.
, (V, Vh )
(h). :

v (h ) = (h ) (V, V )

{6.16]

85

6.5.

:
, ,
. ,
8 , - 2 .
, .
2 2 3 3 ,
(V, V ) = 11,150 2 2 (V, V ) = 13,900 3
3.

2 2
R (h ) = x (h ) 11,150
3 3
R (h ) = x (h ) 13,900

[6.17]

[6.18]


16,450 13,700 . . 6.6
.
.

6.6.

6.9
,
(V, V ) . :
V
,
Journel Huijbregts (1978) . 125-147.

86

,
.

6.1 (V, V ) .

V.-,
,
.
, ,
,
.

.
.
, ; ,
. , 100 100
; 104 108 .
25 100 200-300
.
(V, V )
(v, v ) , V 100 100 v 10 10 :
100 3.0,
50 3.0,
3.0.
, 2 2,
10 10,
(V, V ) .
6.2 (V, V ) .
,
, Journel Huijbregts (1978).
4 5 ( 128-9) (V, V )

.
(
"" ) ,
.
, 100 100,
200 3.0, 0.5
0.5 . 0.375. ,
(V, V ) = 3.0 0.375 = 1.125

87

(V, V ) (v, v ) , V
100 100 v - 10 10, :
100 3.0,
50 3.0,
3.0 ( = 0).
,
.
6.3 (V, V ) .
(V, V ) ,
[6.4]. V d ( ).
C, ,
(d, d ) = C d/3 . , (h ) = C h .

(d, d ) ,
C 3.
(d, d ) ,
C.
6.4 . (V, V )
(v, v ) , ,
10 10 100 100 ,
:
100 3.0,
50 3.0,
3.0 ( = 0).
6.5 .
4 10 10
5. 4-
(.. 40 10 5) ,
,
.
.
100 3.0.

6.6 .
5
50, 1.0 0.05.
15,
.
. -, (d, d ) , d
15,
5 15 .

7.
7.1
.
,
. ""
. :
(ordinary kriging, OK), ,
,
(simple kriging, SK), , .

.
, OK SK.

,
.
, .
7.2
.
, .

.
:

.
,
.

.
, ,
. , ,
.
.

.
, ,
. , ,
, .
"" , .
. . (Dr D.G. Krige),
,
, .
. (Prof. G. Matheron) ,
. ,
( ).
, ,
.

89

7.3
: N z(x1), ,
z(xN) ,
Z(x). ,
Z(x0), . (
, ,
.)
, :
zv =

1
z(x )dx
V V

[7.1]

V , ,
, ,
. .
5.
Z(V), :

z*V = i z(x i )

[7.2]

i .
,
, .
. ..
, .
:

Z *V = i Z(x i )

[7.3]

, :
: E Z *V Z V = 0

: Var Z *V Z V - .
.
7.4
, Z(x)
, m .
(OK).
( )
, , ,
.

90

5:
?
,
. .
. "V"
, , , .
,
, , .

,
V (V, V ) (x, V ) .
,

.
,

.

, ,
m. ,
, m .
SK.
, ,
.

91

7.5
. Z(x)
m. m ,
.
E[Z(x )] = m = E[Z V ]

[7.4]


, , -
:

Z *V = i Z(x i )

[7.5]

Z *V Z V :

E i Z(x i ) Z v = i m m = m i 1

[7.6]

,
, m=0, 1.
( ).
m , 1. 2

. Z *V Z V
, :

2 = i j C(x i , x j ) + C (V, V ) 2 i C (x i , V ) =
= 2 i (x i , V ) i j (x i , x j ) (V, V )
[7.7]

(x i , V ) - xi V, ..

(x i , V ) =

1
(x i x )dx
V V

, 1, 0,
. 0,
1 Z(V).
2

92

X
X

Xi

6, (V, V )
x x',
V.
X
V

(V, V ) =

1
V2

(x x )dxdx

C (x i , V ) C (V, V ) .
,
1,
. 1.0,
.

= Var Z*V Z V 2 ( i 1)
[7.8]
.
N+1 , .
6 .
:

(x , x ) + = (x , V ) i = 1,2,..., N
N

j=1

[7.9]

=1

93

, :
2K = i (x i , V ) (V, V ) +

[7.10]

, ,
[7.7].
:

C(x , x ) + = C(x , V )
N

j=1

i = 1,2,..., N
[7.11]

=1

6:

:

= 2 i (x i , V ) i j (x i , x j ) (V, V ) + 2 (1 i )

.
, .
, N .
0 = x i x j iV = (x i V ) ,

= 21 1V + 2 2 2V + 23 3V

12 11 + 22 22 + 23 33 + 21 2 12 + 213 13 + 2 2 3 23
(V , V ) + 2 (1 1 2 3 )

d
= 21V [2 1 11 + 2 2 12 + 2 3 13 + 2 ] = 0
d 1

1 11 + 2 12 + 3 13 + = 1V
2 3

1 12 + 2 22 + 3 23 + = 2V
1 13 + 2 23 + 3 33 + = 3V

1 + 2 + 3 = 1
- :

94

(x , x ) + = (x , V ) i = 1,2,..., N
N

j=1

=1

N
, 1
N, 1 3. .

=-.
:
2K = C (V, V ) i C (x i , V )

[7.12]

, : AX=B.
11

21

N1

12
22

N2
1

1N
2N

NN
1

1 1 (x 1 , V )
1 2 (x 2 , V )


1 N (x N , V )


0 1

[7.13]

- , ,
A - .
A-1. , ,
. ,
. :
2K = X T B (V, V )

(XT =X )

[7.14]

A .
7.6 OK

OK
. ,
Z(x) , .
,
, .
:
E[Z(x + h ) Z(x )] = 0

[7.15]

95

Var[Z(x + h ) Z(x )] = 2(h )


[7.16]
(h) h, x.
Z *V Z V ,
1.0, , ,
.
.
.
, . -
, ,
.

7.7 :
Z2

Z1

Z3

Z5

Z4

7.1.
(200 200), 5
200 . ,

2.0 250.
, (V, V ) (V, x ) .

(x 1 , V ) = 0.88 (x 2 , V ) = 1.86 (V, V ) = 1.13


7.7.1

[7.17]

. 5,
6 6.

96

11

21
31

41
51

12
22
32
42
52
1

13
23
33
43
53
1

14
24
34
44
54
1

15
25
35
45
55
1

1 1 (x 1 , V )
1 2 (x 2 , V )
1 3 (x 3 , V )

=
1 4 (x 4 , V )
1 5 (x 5 , V )


0 1

[7.18]

,
. , (x 2 , x 3 )
200 2 .
, .
:
0 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1 1 0.88
1.89
0
2
2
2 1 2 1.86

1.89
2
0
2
2 1 3 1.86

1.89
2
2
0
2
1
4 1.86

1.89
2
2
2
0 1 5 1.86

1
1
1
1
0 1
1

[7.19]

1 = 0.60
2 = 3 = 4 = 5 = 0.10

[7.20]

= 0.12
:
Z * = 0.60Z1 + 0.10(Z 2 + Z 3 + Z 4 + Z 5 )

[7.21]

:
2K = i (V, x i ) + (V, V ) = 0.26

[7.22]


. , ,
1.5,
1.5,
0. ,
, ,
;
.

97

7.8

, -
.
m. m ,
,

N

m * = mi Z(x i )

[7.23]

i =1

,
. ,
= 0. ..

E m * m = E mi Z(x i ) m = 0
i =1

Z(x) m, ,
N

i =1

mi

=1

[7.24]

Var m * m = Var mi Z(x i ) m = mi mj C(x i , x j )


j
i
i =1

[7.25]

,
. ,

C(x , x ) =
j=1

mj

i =1

mi

i = 1,2,..., N

=1

[7.26]

.
, .

( )

2K = Var m * = m
7.9

[7.27]

98

, m
. -, ,
Y(x) . ,

Z(x)=Y(x)+m. Y(x):
N

YV* = i Y(x i )
i =1

[7.28]
,
.
,
. ,
0. ..

E YV* YV = E i Y(x i ) YV = 0
i =1

[7.29]

Y(x) 0,
. .

Var YV* YV = Var i Y(x i ) YV =


i =1

= i j C(x i , x j ) = C (x i , V ) i = 1,2,..., N
j

[7.30]

,
.

C(x , x ) = C(x , V )
N

j=1

i = 1,2,..., N

[7.31]

:
N

2
= C (V ,V ) i C (x i , V )
SK

[7.32]

i =1

[7.32] , ,
YV. ZV Y(x) Z(x)-m. :
Z *V = YV* + m = i [Z(x ) m ] + m =

= i Z(x i ) + m 1 i = i Z(x ) + m M
M .

[7.33]

99


, .
, , ,
,
.
(, ),
, . .
,
.
8.
[7.33], ,
. ,
, ,
. - .
(Journel, 1977).
7.10

, ,
( ) ,
( ). ,
. ,
. , m
SK OK.
7. .
:
M m =
[7.34]
2
2
2
OK
= SK
+ ( M ) Var m *
[7.35]

( )


OK SK
. ,
:
, ,
,
. -
.
7:
SK

Z *V = i Z(x i ) + m M

m m*.
M,

100

Z *V = Z(x i )[ i + M im ]
[7.36]
OK . OK
, OK,
. , [7.36]
. -, ,
1.0.

[ +
i

mi ] = i + M = 1

[7.37]

= 1 . , [7.11]
C(x , x ) = C (x , V ) j = 1,2,..., N


i =1

mi

[7.38]
i i+Mm :

( +
i =1

mi )C(x i , x j ) = i C(x i , x j ) + M mi C(x i , x j )

[7.39]
SK

C (x j , V ) .

[7.26]

( +
i =1

M m .

mi )C(x i , x j ) = C (x i , V ) + M m

[7.40]
, M m = = , ,
.
[7.36] OK.
, i = i + M mi
,
OK:

( )

2
2
OK
= SK
+ ( M ) Var m *
2

[7.41]

7.11



,
. Z *V Z V ,
. ,
; ..
[7.42]
E Z V Z *V = Z *V

, Z V Z *V
1.0.

101

7.2. , (a)
(b)
, , -
, E Z *V - Z V = 0 ,
. , ,
,
, .
Z V Z *V

OK. Z V Z *V ;

E Z V Z *V , , Z *V ,
. ,
, , OK
. , , p,

[ ]

p = Cov Z V , Z V* /Var Z *V

[7.43]

[7.44]

i j C (x i , x j )

[7.45]

Z *V = i Z(x i ) + m 1 i

[
]
Var[Z ] =

Cov Z V , Z*V = j C (x i , V )
*
V

102

SK .
1.0. :
3

[
]
Var[Z ] = C (x , x )

Cov Z V , Z *V = j C (x i , V )
*
V

..

C(x , V ) = C (x , x ) +
j

Cov Z V , Z

*
V

] + = Var[Z ] ,

*
V

[7.47]

, , p Z V Z *V

Cov Z V , Z*V
p=
Cov Z V , Z*V

] )

[7.48]


, .
, .
1.0. ,
,
.
7.12


(,
), ,
. ,
, ,
. ,
.
, 5
OK 200 200.
( )
, . ,
, .
.

, Z V Z V Z V .
. -, ,
.
3

103

0 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1 1 0


1.89 0
2
2
2 1 2 1.89

1.89
2
0
2
2 1 3 1.89

=
2
2
0
2 1 4 1.89
1.89
1.89
2
2
2
0 1 5 1.89

1
1
1
1
0 1
1

[7.49]

1 = 1.0
2 = 3 = 4 = 5 = 0
=0

[7.50]

.
. , ,
,
. ,
.

(.. , ),
, .

(variogram
crossvalidation procedure). ,
,
, ,
, ,
.
.
7.13
,


.
, ,
V.
, .

, , C(h)
.
7.13.1

.
,

104

2EST = 12 C(1,1) + 22 C(2,2 ) + 2 1 2 C(1,2 ) + C (V, V ) 2 1 C (1, V ) 2 2 C (2, V )


[7.51]
C(1,1)=C(2,2)=1. ,
2EST = ( 1 a ) + ( 2 b ) + 2c( 1 a )( 2 b ) + d
[7.52]
2

a=

C (1, V ) C(1,2 )C (2, V )


1 C (1,2 )

[7.53]
b=

C (2, V ) C(1,2 )C (1, V )

c = C(1,2 )

1 C (1,2 )

[7.54]

[7.55]

, d - .
. 7.3
, . ,
, . ,
, a b
, d. SK
, a b SK , d
SK. ()
"".

7.3. ,
;

105

7.4. , OK: 1 + 2 = 1 ,
isovariance . ,
, OK.
,
. -
1, .. 1 + 2 = 1 . 7.4
2 = 1 - 1 , (0,1) (1,0),
. ,
. OK ,
OK. ,
, . , OK
SK.
. 2 = 1 - 1
2 12 (1 c ) 2 1 (a b + 1 c ) + d 2

[7.56]

,
2

ab

+ 0.5 + K
= 2(1 c ) 1
2(1 c )

,
, :
ab

1 =
+ 0.5
2(1 c )

[7.57]

[7.58]

,
OK.
7.14

7.1 .
(1,0) (2,0)

106

(x,y).
1.0.
. , N .
.
. ,
.

.
,
?
7.2 . ,
(1,0) (2,0),
(x,y). 2.0
0.75. ,

1 20 10
1 20
1 = + 10
+
2
2 12
2
2 12
[7.59]
20 10
, 12
.
1 =

0.75 (.. )
.
, 0.5. ,
. , ,
.
7.3 .
(1,0) (2,0),
(x,y). 2.0
- 1.
. ,
4, .
,
.
7.4 .
, (1,0) (2,0), .
(x,0), x. ,
, , (1,0),
1.0, - , ,
.

107

,
. ,
1, - . ,
.
. ,
"". .
, ,
. :
.
(Markovian property).
,
. , ,
.
(the Black & Scholes model).
7.5
. , (1,0)
(2,0). -
.
(1,y),
. ,
. , /
, - . ,
.
x2
y2
[7.60]
C(h ) = exp 2 exp 2 h 2 = x 2 + y 2
a
a
,

x
y
C(h ) = exp exp
a
a

h 2 = x 2 + y 2

[7.61]

108

8
8.1
:
, ,
,
.

.
(,
),
.
.
,
.
,
() ,
(,
1.0).
.

. ,
.
(.. - )
( )
, , ,
,

. , ,
() ,
, .

.
.
( ,
),
. .
- "",
.
.
.
.

, .
,

109

, , -
.

. .
:
,
.

.
. .
,
.


, ,
. (
,
, ,
,

).

,
.
( 1.5),
.
1. ,
P1, P2, P3 P4, 1
. P0.
. 8.1.
P1

P2

P0

P3

P4

8.1. P1, P2, P3 P4 P0



. :
1.5
1.5 (.. (h ) = h
),
a=0.8 1.0
,
a=0.8, 0.75
0.25 (.. 1.0)
1.38 .

110

3 ;
- 1.38. ,
, . 8.1 ,
. P2
P3 (2), P1 P4 (1) .
8.1. ,
. , . 8.1.
+ .
1.5
.

. .
.
.

-0.047

-0.083

0.008

0.010

0.547

0.583

0.492

0.490

0.201

0.227

0.563

0.590


( c 1.5 ),
.
( 25 %
) , ,
. ,
, (
) , ,
. , ,
, ,
( ).
2.
.
,
.
, 100 100 5
, .
200 2.0.
, ,
, ,
, 1.0.
(-50,50)

(50,50)
*

*(0,0)

(-50,-50)

(50,-50)
*
*
(51,51)

111

8.2.
8.2 5 6
. , 4
5 6
. ()
5 . .

5 6 . ,
6 ,
.
,
,
.
8.2.
5 6

(0,0)
(-5(),-50)
(-50,50)
(50,-50)
(50,50)
(51,51)

0.43()
0.141
0.141
0.141
0.141
0.085

0.436
0.141
0.141
0.141
0.152
-0.011
0.085

,
.
.
.
,
: (,
) , ()
. , , ,
, , ,
, , .
, Barnes (1984)
Chauvet (1988).


, ,

.
,

112

,
.
,
. ,
.
,
: 2.06
a=30 ( 100)
1.0 40 100
. ,
100 100 5 ( ).
8.3 ,
.

8.3. ; (a)
40 100 1.0, (b)
30 2.06
8.3.
, 100 100

0.338

0.339

0.165

0.165

0.285

0.299


,
.
,
, , ,
,
. ,
,
. ,
.

113


.
2

400
b

600

0
0

200

400
a

600

200

8.4.
; (a) 200, 2.0 (b)
2.0
8.4 ,
,
. , (I)
2.0 200 ( )
(2) 2.0. -
,
, : ,
- .
*Z2
*Z3

*Z5

*Z1

*Z4

8.5. 200 200 5


, 200 200,
4 , 200
200. (.
, 250,
200).
8.4. 5

0.20

0.540

0.20

0.115

0.40

0.290

114

8.4.
.
, .
.
, ,
,
.
,
.
9.
5 .

. , ,
. 9,
200 200. 8.5
.
8.5. 9

0.11

0.51

0.11

0,08

0.11

0.04

0.22

0.26

5 , ,

, .
, ,
,
,
.

.


.

. ,
, .
, , .
- ( )
, , ,
. ,

115


.

.
*

8.6. 1- (a), 2- (b)


, 200 200
, , 200 200.
1 ( ), 9 (1 )
, 25 (2 ). ,
.
,
( ).
, ,
: 2.0 250 100
, 2.0 (
).
8.7 9 25
.
( 250,
)
. ,
2 5 , -
.
, . ,
,
.
( ),
,
.
. ,
,
.
.
, =250,
=2
2,6

8,2

2,6

0,8

0,8

0,5

0,8

0,8

0,8

1,2

7,0

1,2

0,8

116

8,2

56,7

8,2

0,5

7,0

56,0

7,0

0,5

2,6

8,2

2,6

0,8

1,2

7,0

1,2

0,8

0,8

0,8
0,5
2 = 0,20

0,8

0,8

3,3

3,3

3,3

3,3

3,3

2 = 0,22
, =100,
=2
9,4

9,4

9,4

3,3

3,3

3,3

3,3

3,3

9,4

25,0

9,4

3,3

3,3

19,0

3,3

3,3

9,4

9,4

9,4

3,3

3,3

3,3

3,3

3,3

3,3

3,3

3,3
3,3
2 = 0,25

3,3

,
=2

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0

11,1

11,1

11,1

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0

11,1

11,1

11,1

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0

11,1

11,1

11,1

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0
4,0
2 = 0,08

4,0

2 = 0,35

2 = 0,22

8.7.
2-

,
.
.
.
- . ,
,
5 ,
. .
*Z2
*Z3

*Z1

*Z5

*Z4

8.8.

117

, S

.
Z1, S,
, :

(Z1 , Z1 ) (Z1 , S) 1 1 (Z1 , V )


(Z , S) (S, S) 1 = (S, V )
1

1
1
0 1

[8.1]

,
, .
[8.2]
(Z1 , Z1 ) = 0 , (Z1 , V ) = 0.88
1
[8.3]
(Z1 , S) = [(Z1 , Z 2 ) + ... + (Z1 , Z 5 )] = 1.89
4
1
1
(S, S) = [(Z 2 , Z 2 ) + ... + (Z 5 , Z 5 )] = (0 ) + 2 100 2 + (200 ) = 1.5 [8.4]
16
4
1
[8.5]
(S, V ) = [ (Z 2 , V ) + ... + (Z 5 , V )] = (Z 2 , V ) = 1.86
4

3 3 6 6:

0 1.89 1 1 0.88
1.89 1.50 1 = 1.86

1
1
0 1.00

[8.6]

1=0.60, S=0.40 =0.12 :


z * = 0.60z 1 + 0.40(z 2 + z 3 + z 4 + z 5 )/4

[8.7]

2K , .
6 6 3 3 - .
, ,
,
, , ,

.
.
,
( ),
,
.

.

118


, .

*Z2
*Z3

*Z1

*Z5

*Z4

8.9.
, , ,
,
.
, , . 8.10,
500 - 250
.
.
Z3 Z5 , Z2 Z4,
.
.
*Z2

*Z2
*Z3

*Z1

*Z5

*Z3

*Z4

*Z1

*Z5

*Z4

8.10.


,
, ,
. ,

.


, , .
7 ,
Z *V = i Z(x i ) + m * M
[8.8]

119

m* - ,
SK ,
SK :

( )

2
2
OK
= SK
+ ( M ) Var m *
[8.9]
2

, ,
M ( 0),
Z(x), .. , m.
.
SK .
, SK ,
OK SK .
. , SK ,
OK SK. Rivoirard (1984, 1987)
, , ,
. ,

.

- 20 5
5 5. ,
.
. ,
,
? 8.11 .
20m

20m
5m

* 5m

8.11.
, - 1.0
20. 0.368, 0.114. 0.531 0.863,
SK 0.623 ( ) 0.255.
,
.

120


, ,
"".
().
,
. (
) ,

. ,

,
1.0.
Z*ij i- ,
j- , *ij -
. - Zi,
Z *ij Z i . :

E Z *ij Z i = 0

[8.10]

Z *ij Z i
=0
E
ij

[8.11]
Z *ij Z i
=1
Var
ij

[8.12]
:
(Z*ij Z i )
[8.13]
Z *ij Z i

ij
[8.14]

(Z

*
ij

Zi

ij2
[8.15]
(.. )
,
() .
, ,
, "".
.

, ,
,
(.. , ).
,

121

,
.

122

9 c

5
. ,

, - .
, .
, , .
,
,
.
9.2
, , 500
15 40 .
1.8
.
9.1.

, ,
.
,
. ,
. .
9.1. ,
,

1.8

1-

1.2

80

65

2-

1.5

400

65

7.14.1
80,
100
100. 15, .
19 , 12
36 .
( 10 10
) , , (15).
.

123

9.3
,
( ,
()). 40%
, ,
.
8
80 .
500 300. 9.5
, ,
.
9.1 (
14), . ,
, ,
( 8 ). 9.2
() .
- , ,
,
. 9.2
.
9.4
, ,
100 100.
,
(V, x ) (V, V ) .
6 6 1.
, 1.
9.3 9.4
, 9.3 .
, .
, ,
,
. ,
. ,
, .
9.2.

7501

59.12

56.84

0.704

52.91

124

7501

1.655

2.380

2.127

0.103

9.1. 14,
8 , - 80
- 8

9.2. 14.
9.3.

7501

53.27

5S.97

56.S4

0.605

7501

0.720

1.636

1.238

0.166

125

9.3. 14,
8 , - 80
- 8

9.4. 14.
.
1.655,
1.636. - ,
, .
9.5
9.3
, . ,
, ,
. 9.5 ,
. , - ,
? , ,
.

126

,
.

9.5. ,

9.5.1

, ,
,
. 2 5 12 14.
9.4 ,
, .
3 .

. .
9.4. , ,

(12,5,14): = 54.83, = 2.14

1
2
3

. X

. Y

. Z

-1450
-1450
-1450

-995
-995
-995

17.25
18.75
15.75

35.1%
32.4%
32.4%

56.6
56.9
51.05

(12,4,14): = 53.68, = 2.27

1
2
3

. X

. Y

. Z

-1475
-1475
-1475

-1092
-1092
-1092

17.25
15.75
18.75

32.3%
33.8%
33.8%

55.0
54.25
51.85

(12,3,14): = 55.05, = 2.27


. X

. Y

. Z

127

1
2
3

-1494
-1295
-1295

-1195
-1236
-1236

20.25
17.25
18.75

35.3%
36.6%
28.1%

51.6
57.0
56.1

(12,2,14): = 58.75, = 2.33

1
2
3

. X

. Y

. Z

-1319
-1319
-1319

-1330
-1330
-1330

17.25
18.75
20.25

44.1%
27.9%
28.0%

58,9
58,6
58.65

9.5 14
(: 2 5, : 10 14).
. , ,
.
, ,
.
, -
. (Renard)
(Yancey) (1984),
, ,
. ,
- "" ,

.
9.5. (: 2 5, :
10 14) 14. 3
55.38

54.83

54.83

53.95

54.03

55.66

53.82

53.68

55.47

55.29

57.41

53.34

55.05

56.61

56.57

53.72

55.03

58.75

58.76

55.70

9.5.2

,
.

128

. ,
5 9,
, .
,
.
. 9.6 ,
(12, 4, 14).

9.6. (12, 4, 14) ,


8

500, .
, .
.
,
.
().
,

.
, .
4-
, , , 3 (.
9.7).

129

9.7. ,
4- , , , 3 .

, ,
.
. , ( 9.1) ,
8 , ,
- . ,
.
9.6


- .
, .
,
.
, .
,
.
.
, Journel Huijbgrets (1978), (David) (1977,
1988), (Royle) (1979) (Clark) (1982), ,
,
. (Ravenscroft)
(1990)
. 2 2,
10 10.
, 1. 9.8 a b

, .

130

9.8. (a) (b)


, (
(1990))
(1.0),
. ,
, .
, ,
. ,

. ,
.
.

. :

,
.
,
. ,
, ,
(1976), ( arechal) (1975)
(Rivoirard) (1994). , ,
(Isaaks) (Srivastava) (1989)
(Journel) (1983).
15

.

. ,
(Baafi)
(Schofield) (1997),
(Dowd) (1994), Diitrakopoulos (1994) Soares (1993).
9.6.1

,
, ,
. ,
, .
, ,
. ,
40 40 15 50 50 15.
,
.
,
.
9.9.a ,
100 100, , ,
. .

131

,
, .
, 9.9.b. ,
,
; , (2),
, (3), - ,
. ,
, ,
, , .
, .

(2)
(3)

9.9. 50 50
, 100 100. (a)
, (b) ,
(2) (3), , ,
. (a)

132

10.

,
(
),

. ,
. ,
;
. ,
(),
.

, ,
. ,
.
,
,
"" .

?
,
.
, ; ..
, .
" "
,
.
, , .
: (1)
, (2),
(,
). ,
.
( )
, , , 100-200
, .
.

. ( )
,
. (1973)
, .
. ,

133

,
.

.
( ,
).
,
. ,
,
.

,
V; .. :
Z(V ) =

1
Z(x )dx
V V

[10.1]
,
v. V
, v .
Z(V) Z(v), :
Z(v ) =

1
Z(x )dx
v v

[10.2]
Z(v),
Z(V). ? -, Z(x)
, Z(v) - Z(V).
v V.
2E (v, V ) , , - 2E .
- Z(V) Z(v).
" "
,
. " "
,
.
:
2E (v, V ) =

2
1
(x y )dxdy 2

vV v V
v

[10.3]

1
(x x )dxdx V (x y )dydy
v v

V V

134

2E (v, V ) = 2 (v, V ) (v, v ) (V, V )

[10.4]

(v, V ) , (v, v ) (V, V ) - ,


h V v
.
y

V
v

v, v
V, V
v, V
10.1.
[10.4] v V. ,
v V. ,
:
( ),
V,
v,
v V.

:
2E (v, V ) = [ (v, V ) (V, V )] + [ (v, V ) (v, v )]
[10.5]
, ,
:
v V.
v=V, 2E (v, V ) = 0 .
, .. .


, .
.

2E [v V ]

(v, V ) .
; v
2
E

135

V.
, ,
.
:
, v
V.
( )
, .

, ,
- (,
). ,
.

,
.
,
( ). ,
, ,
, , 1/N,
N . :
1
Z * (V ) = Z i
N
[10.6]

2
1
(x i y )dy 2

NV i
V
[10.7]

(y y)dydy N (x
1

xj)

N , .
, ,
. . 10.2 N
. Z(vi) ,
i- .
*

136

10.2.

, , ,
, :

N [Z(v ) - Z ]
1

[10.8]
, .
, ,
. , (1973, 1977, . 201), ,
.

(Z i Z(v i ))
= 1
2EST = Var

N2
N

[10.9]

Var(Z

Z(v i ))

Var (Z i Z(v i ))
vi.
,
1
2EST = 2E (0, v )
N
[10.10]

.
( : , vi
. Journel Huijbregts (1978)
415-417).
.
, .
3:1,
, .
, ,
.
,
. ,
(. 10.2),

137

2:1,
. 10.3.

10.3.

,
. ,
, , , ,
,
() .
,

. ,
, ,
.
. 10.4 .
d1 d2.
s, n1=d1/s
. ,
.
. v1 v2.
V .
Z(V) ,
V. , Z(vi) Z(di) -
vi di. ,
, Z(di).
Z(V), Z(di) vi.
, v1/d1 = v 2 /d 2

v Z(d ) d Z(d )
=
Z (V ) =
v
d
i

[10.11]

138

d1
* *

d2
* *

v2
V = v1 + v2

10.4. () d1 d2
, Z(V)

v Z(v ) d Z(v )
=
Z(V ) =
v
d
i

[10.12]

, - Z(di)- Z(vi):

d [Z(d ) - Z(v )]
Z (V ) - Z(V ) =
d
i

[10.13]

2E = Var Z * (V ) Z(V ) =

d
2
i

2
Ei

di

[10.14]
2Ei
. ,
di.

.
, Z*(di)
ni :

v1

139

Z* (d i ) = Z(s k )/n i

[10.15]

Z*(V)-Z(V)
.

d [Z(d ) - Z(v )] d [Z (d ) - Z(d )]


+
d
d
*

[10.16]

,
. , Z(sik)
Z*(sik) k-
i- , ,

d
i

/ ni Z * (s ik ) - Z(s ik )
k

[10.17]
i

, ,
. :

2E =

d
2
i

2
Ei

di

d (O, s )/n
2
i

di

[10.18]

N ( N = n i )

2E =

2
i

2Ei

di

2 (O, s )
N

[10.19]

,
,
,

2 (O, s )
N

[10.20]


,
,

. ,
, .

140


.
,
- .
,
,
, .

10.5.
. .
. 10.5 , 48 .
( ),
.
.
(1971 a b)
A:

2A
1
= 2
2
A
N
[10.21]

N2
( N 1 )2
+ 0.061

N2
6

N () (
17). N1 N2
. , N1 N2

2. , N1
N2. 12 10
. N1=6 N2=5,

2A
1
= 2
2
A
17
[10.22]

5
(6)2
+
0.06

5
6

141

(6.6%)2, .
, N1 N2
,
(). . 10.6.

. .
, Journel Huijbregts
(1978) . 428-438.
.

10.6.
()
. 10.6
. N1 N2.
,
16, 6 ,
22. - , 26
(20+6). , N1 13 N2 11.
.

, ,
.
"" ,
(),
.
.
,
.
,
( )
4 4. ,

.
16 1 64
500 , . 10.7.

142

10.7.

500

,
1500 1.0 ,
200 0.4.
1
,
.
:

2E (0 v ) = 0.27
= 0.38
:
= 0.27/16=0.0169

2E
= 0.38/16=0.0238

500
500 :
= 0.0020

2E
= 0.0055


, (..
, , ).
( ) .
, ,
, 95%
. 1000
6.6% , 61.2% .
(1500
300). ,
, .

143

. 10.6.

1000
0,033
0,309

500
0,011
0,148

(
) .
, ,
(), . ,
1000
,
.
,
, ,
, .
,

.

10.1.
200 200
1000 2000.
500 3.25.

? .

250 4.65 1.35.
.
50 , , ,
.
, .
10.2. 200
200
1600 2000.
5.
500
100 .

? .
10.3. 4 4
10 4 .
, ,

144

500 10.1
3.9.
10.4.
. 80
50 50 (. 10.8).
() .
.
N, N1 N2, .
, ,
10.6, .
, , ,
.

10.8.

).

1:

1
?

:
( ),
, ..
,
,
,

.
,

. .
1.1
(..
)
. ,

Z*0 = 1Z1 + 2 Z 2 + ... + 10 Z10


.
, 1, 2, , 10, - .
:

[ ]
Var[Z ] = Var[Z ] + Var[Z ] + ... +

E Z *0 = 1 E[Z1 ] + 2 E[Z 2 ] + ... + 10 E[Z10 ]


*
0

2
1

2
2

2
10

Var[Z10 ] +

+ 2 1 2 Cov[Z1 , Z 2 ] + ... + 2 9 10 Cov[Z 9 , Z10 ]

.
.
.

x0, :
Z *0 Z 0 = 1 Z1 + 2 Z 2 + ... + 10 Z10 Z 0

146

-
( -1).
:

E Z *0 Z 0 = 1 E[Z1 ] + 2 E[Z 2 ] + ... + 10 E[Z10 ] E[Z 0 ]

[ ]

2
Var Z = 12 Var[Z1 ] + 22 Var[Z 2 ] + ... + 10
Var[Z10 ] + 12 Var [Z 0 ]
*
0

+ 2 1 2 Cov[Z1 , Z 2 ] + ... + 2 9 10 Cov[Z 9 , Z10 ]


2 0 1Cov[Z 0 , Z1 ] ... - 2 0 10 Cov[Z 0 , Z10 ]

2 3 ,
( ),

. 7 ,
.
1.2
()
.
.
.
( ).
, ,
:

[ ]

10

E Z *0 = i E[Z i ] = 1 E[Z1 ] + 2 E[Z 2 ] + ... + 10 E[Z10 ]


i =1


10

i =1

2
i

2
Var[Z i ] = 12 Var[Z1 ] + 22 Var[Z 2 ] + ... + 10
Var[Z10 ]


. ,
:
2 i j Cov (Z i , Z j ) = 2( 1 2 Cov[Z1 , Z 2 ] + ... + 9 10 Cov[Z 9 , Z10 ])
9

10

i =1 j>i

.

.
1.3
1. :

147

N
,
,
,
[
]

Var
Z
1
N
Z

i i
i
i
i ,
i =1
i =1
i =1
i =1
5

2
i

n =1

H n (y )

2. :
5
5
N N N N
,

i j ij
i j , i j
i =1 j-1
i =1 j=1 i =1 j-1
3. , :
2

N N
N
N 1 N
N
2

+
2
i j

i j
i
i
i =1 j=1
i =1
i =1 j>i
i =1

4. , :

N
N N
Var i Z i = i j Cov Z i , Z j
i =1
i =1 j=1

148

2:
2.1
,
.
, .
()
. , ,
, .
,
. Williamson-Noble
Lawrence (1994),

: 20,000$ 5 .

.
2.2

, ,

( ..)
.
?

, ,

,
.

,
. ,
()
.
2.3
(1)
.
.
(2) .
, ,
.
(3) ,
. , . ,


.

149

, 5 .
, ,
.
.
(4)
( , ,
.. ..).
, (
, .).
, ,
.
(5)
.
.
.
. .
( ) .
(6)
, , .
( )
, . . ,
.
( ) . ,
, ..
.

. ,
.