China is growing in influence in Latin America Xiaoxia 2013
(Wang; In America's Backyard: China's Rising Influence in Latin America; May 6; www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latinamerica/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/; kdf) China is busy in America's backyard.¶ Over the past five years, Chinese businesses have been expanding their footprint in Latin America in a number of ways, beginning with enhanced trade to ensure a steady supply of bulk commodities such as oil,
copper and soybeans. At this year's Boao Forum for Asia, for the first time a Latin American sub-forum was created that included the participation of several heads of state from the region.¶ Since 2011, China
has overtaken the Netherlands to become Latin America’s second biggest investor behind the United States. China has signed a series of large cooperation agreements
with Latin American countries in such fields as finance, resources and energy.¶ According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, Sino-Latin American trade grew in 2012 to a total of $261.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.18%.¶ This trend risks undermining the position of the United States as Latin America’s single dominant trading partner. In 2011, the U.S.-Latin American trade volume was $351 billion.¶ Some
prominent Chinese have condemned the United States' high-profile Return to Asia strategy, with its intention of “containing China's front door.” Shouldn’t the United States, which put forward the Monroe Doctrine two centuries ago, also question how China is quietly arriving in America’s backyard?
Plan shuts out China—economic relations in Latin America are zero sum Watson 7—strategy professor @ National War College
Cynthia, “China’s Presence in Latin America” [http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf]
But, the inability of Washington to consider anything beyond the concerns about terrorism spreading around the world, and trying to salvage a peace of some sort without nuclear weapons in the Middle East, is having consequences for U.S. interests in other parts of the world. For cultural and geographic reasons, the
ties between the United States and Latin America ought to be stronger than those between China and the Latins. Expectations of the strength of Latin America–U.S. ties
have probably always been unrealistic and frankly ahistorical; the two parts of the world actually have a number of fundamental differences. But the distance between Latin America’s experiences and those of China are even vaster, ranging from religion to ethnic homogeneity to historical roles in the world. Washington genuine partner
must make a more concerted effort to act as a with the region, rather than relegating it to the position of secondary or tertiary economic
thought that assumes absolute U.S. leadership. The United States and China claim that each is serious about adopting the economic
philosophy that undergirds capitalism: economic growth is a net beneﬁt for all, not a zero sum game. If true, China, Latin Am erica, and the United States beneﬁ t from the greater Chinese engagement in this region because it creates competition. Pure
theory, however, always runs up against political philosophies, leading to trade conﬂ icts, protectionism, and all-too-often a zero sum view based on the international relations theory of realpolitik: what’s good for my adversary must be bad for me. The risks of arousing realpolitik in the United States, particularly as the nation
faces increased frustration with the reality of the Middle East, is signiﬁ cant, probably more than the PRC bargained for when it began engaging more with Latin America over the past decade. It appears unlikely that Beijing will seriously accelerate its involvement in the region because of the number of Congressional hearings, public conferences and assessments, and other warnings alerting the United States to China having discovered Latin America. To accelerate its involvement would risk the relatively strong relations with Washington at a time when other trade problems and overall concerns about China’s growing power are already rising in the United States. At the same time, Washington’s ability to focus equally on all areas of the world is not possible. With
U.S. interests directed elsewhere, it seems highly likely that Beijing will be able to maintain the level of involvement in the region it already has, without Washington raising too great a ruckus. Indeed, Beijing’s best
outcome from its current balance of involvement in the area is probably going to be the long-term development of trust and ties over several decades with the leaders of this region, rather than immediately creating crucial, highly public ties between itself and Latin
American leaders. As so often appears true in the international system, probably the old tale of the tortoise and hare applies here, where China’s biggest gain will be accomplished over a long time of getting to know the region, rather than showing up repeatedly in the ‘rock star’ role which is too soon and too rash for a long-term, stable set of ties. Washington seems likely to worry about the rock star phenomenon, rather than attempting to manage the emergence of another state becoming a long-term partner with its Latin American neighbors.
Chinese influence in the region key to the global economy and regime stability – preventing US influence key Ellis 11—national security studies assistant professor @ the National Defense University
R Evan, “Chinese Soft Power in Latin America” *http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/images/jfq-60/JFQ60_8591_Ellis.pdf] //mtc Access to Latin American Markets. Latin American markets are becoming increasingly valuable for Chinese companies because they allow the PRC to expand and diversify its export base at a time when economic growth is slowing in traditional markets such as the United States and Europe. The region has also proven an effective market for Chinese efforts to sell more sophisticated, higher value added products in sectors seen as strategic, such as automobiles, appliances, computers and telecommunication equipment, and aircraft. In expanding access for its products through free trade accords
with countries such as Chile, Peru, and Costa Rica, and penetrating markets in Latin American countries with existing manufacturing sectors such as Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina, the PRC has often had to overcome resistance by organized and often politically well-connected established interests in those nations. In doing so, the hopes of access to Chinese markets and investments among key groups of businesspeople and government officials in those nations have played a key role in the political will to overcome the resistance. In Venezuela, it was said that the prior Chinese ambassador to Venezuela, Zheng Tuo, was one of the few people in the country who could call President Chávez on the telephone and
China has applied more explicit pressures to induce Latin America to keep its markets open to Chinese goods.
get an instant response if an issue arose regarding a Chinese company. Protection of Chinese Investments in and Trade Flows from the Region. At times, It has specifically protested measures by the Argentine and Mexican governments that it has seen as protectionist: and, in the case of Argentina, as informal retaliation, China
China has also used its economic weight to help secure major projects on preferential terms. In the course of negotiating a $1.7 billion
began enforcing a longstanding phytosanitary regulation, causing almost $2 billion in lost soy exports and other damages for Argentina.14 loan deal for the Coco Coda Sinclair Hydroelectric plant in Ecuador, the ability of the Chinese bidder SinoHidro to self-finance 85 percent of the projects through Chinese banks helped it to work around the traditional Ecuadorian requirement that the project have a local partner. Later, the Ecuadorian government publicly and bitterly broke off negotiations with the Chinese, only to return to the bargaining table 2 months later after failing to find satisfactory alternatives. In Venezuela, the Chávez government agreed, for example, to accept half of the $20 billion loaned to it by the PRC in Chinese currency, and to use part of that currency to buy 229,000 consumer appliances from the Chinese manufacturer Haier for resale to the Venezuelan people. In another deal, the PRC loaned Venezuela $300 million to start a regional airline, but as part of the deal, required Venezuela to purchase the planes from a Chinese company.15 Protection of Chinese Nationals. As with the United States and other Western countries, as China becomes more involved in business and other operations in Latin America, an increasing number of its nationals will be vulnerable to hazards common to the region, such as kidnapping, crime, protests, and related problems. The heightened presence of Chinese petroleum companies in the northern jungle region of Ecuador, for example, has been associated with a series of problems, including the takeover of an oilfield operated by the Andes petroleum consortium in Tarapoa in November 2006, and protests in Orellana related to a labor dispute with the Chinese company Petroriental in 2007 that resulted in the death of more than 35 police officers and forced the declaration of a national state of emergency. In 2004, ethnic Chinese shopkeepers in
the PRC will need to rely increasingly on a combination of goodwill and fear to deter action against its personnel, as well as its influence with governments of the region, to resolve such problems when they occur.The rise of China is intimately tied to the global economy through trade, financial, and information flows, each of which is highly dependent on global institutions and cooperation. Because of this, some within the PRC leadership see the country’s sustained growth and development, and thus the stability of the regime, threatened if an actor such as the United States is able to limit that cooperation or block global institutions from supporting Chinese interests. In Latin America, China’s attainment of observer status in the OAS in 2004 and its acceptance into the IADB in 2009 were efforts to obtain a seat at the table in key regional institutions, and to keep them from being used “against” Chinese interests. In addition, the PRC has leveraged hopes of access to Chinese markets by Chile, Peru, and Costa Rica to secure bilateral free trade agreements, whose practical effect is to move Latin America away from a U.S.-dominated trading block (the Free Trade Area of the Americas) in which the PRC would have been disadvantaged.
Valencia and Maracay, Venezuela, became the focus of violent protests associated with the Venezuelan recall referendum. As such incidents increase,
Decline causes nuclear war Harris and Burrows 9
Mathew, PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer is a member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf Increased Potential for Global Conflict
Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample Revisiting the Future opportunity for unintended consequences, there is a growing sense of insecurity. Even so, history may be more instructive than ever. While we continue to believe that the
Great Depression is not likely to be repeated, the lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the
same period). There is no reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century. For that reason, the ways in which the potential
for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the
report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorism’s
appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups_inheriting organizational structures,
command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks_and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become
self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets
that would become narrower in an economic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced
drawdown of U.S. military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East. Although Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable, worries about a nuclear-armed Iran could lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons, and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. The
close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel, short warning Iranian intentions may
and missile flight times, and uncertainty of place more focus on preemption rather than defense, potentially leading to escalating
education. another region of growing importance for China is Latin America.¶ Despite these issues.7 billion in 2008. the People’s Republic of China (PRC) now ranks as the world’s second largest economy. recent external and internal developments may be creating an opportunity for the region to balance its growing economic relations with China. China’s
comparative advantage may be eroding due to increased production costs and Beijing’s desire to lead its economy toward higher-end manufacturing and domestic consumption. thus making the PRC the third largest investor in Latin America behind only the Netherlands and the United States that year. whose exports and growth are tied closely to the PRC’s demand for resources. Already China’s trade numbers with LAC have surpassed those of Japan.China Increasing Influence
China economic influence in Latin America is gaining massive momentum but can still be disrupted Sarmiento-Saher 13
Sebastian. the previously dominant Asian trading partner for Latin America. $75 billion since 2005 and may account for approximately half of the PRC’s lending abroad from 2009-2010. fostering lucrative relations with China while addressing the frustration of Brazilian manufacturing industries that struggle against cheaper Chinese goods. As Latin America continues to grapple with deficits in infrastructure. alarmism about China keeping LAC economies dependent on natural resources is overblown. Notably.9 billion in 2000 to U. Chinese investment in Latin America jumped from 1 to 9 percent of total FDI in LAC from 2008 to 2010. is also no stranger to the region after having made several state visits there as vice president.S. while LAC exports to China increased from U. If this trend continues.¶ The results of this expanded Sino-Latin American economic relationship have been mixed.S. Xi Jinping. Chinese
exports to Latin America grew substantially from U. this has raised questions about Latin American dependence on resource exports and the specter of Dutch disease. a study by Enrique Dussel Peters found that
Latin America received 11. Chinese exports to Mexico have also undercut indigenous industry and resulted in a substantial trade deficit.
However. What is most significant about these developments overall is how rapidly Chinese businesses and organizations have expanded their activity in the region – a trend that continues to grow. Using targeted policies. A
byproduct of this rapid expansion has been China’s search for new markets and resources to sustain its economic growth. Mexico has been among the hardest hit among countries in the Western hemisphere as its large industrial base has struggled to compete with Chinese manufacturing in a diminished. Brazil’s government has been forced to manage a sensitive balancing act. companies. especially from Chinese firms and policymakers keen to benefit from growing opportunities and access to raw materials in LAC. Peru. ¶ It is not without serious challenges or difficulties that Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are gradually emerging as a region of stable economic development. and loans from the PRC have been focused on the countries.S.¶ In terms of foreign direct investment (FDI). $69. the United States and the EU are still ahead of China in terms of trade flows with Latin America. market. and infrastructure that underpin the extraction of natural resources and other commodities in the region. Echoing the speed of the trade increases above. These investments come in addition to massive loan credits which.com/chinapower/china-and-latin-america-big-business-and-big-competition/] March 14 //mtc
Despite a slowdown in China’s impressive economic growth.¶ China
is quickly catching up to many of LAC’s traditional trading partners. according to a report by researchers at Tufts University.¶ In terms of development
overall. $6. $5. Much of the trade. as well as for countries like Chile and Venezuela. however. Under President Hu Jintao China deepened its ties with Latin
American countries through initiatives like the 2008 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima.¶ Another adverse effect is the growing resentment among some Latin Americans in some sectors that have been increasingly displaced by China’s industrial or manufacturing exports to LAC. While there has been much analysis of its activity in Africa and Central Asia. post-financial crisis U. On the negative side. “China and Latin America: Big Business and Big Competition” *http://thediplomat.¶ Latin America’s prospects have attracted serious attention.3 billion in 2008.S. despite these dramatic increases of 910 percent and 1. ¶ China’s competitiveness has complicated the Sino-LAC honeymoon period in recent years.¶ According to Barbara Stallings. many of its independent states have an abundance of natural resources and emerging manufacturing and service sectors that are projected to achieve solid growth in the coming years. Labor movements and environmental groups have also begun to take a stand against the extractive industries of countries like Peru and Chile. it would help beleaguered Mexico. have topped U. whose security and political problems may finally start to improve and give Mexican industries a chance to compete on the global stage. $70. This has been good news for the large agricultural.S. the question about whether growing economic ties with the PRC
. mining. however.226 percent. investment. China’s new President.41 percent of total Chinese FDI from 2000-2011 – making the region the second largest recipient of Chinese FDI behind only Hong Kong.S. and energy industries of Latin America.3 billion in 2000 to U. Most notably. other countries with manufacturing sectors may benefit from China’s economic restructuring. Although LAC is not a single country. and social mobility.
¶ Biden. The issue now is: What can we do together? We want to engage more. There will continue to be cases of cooperation and competition between LAC countries and the PRC as their relations mature – but as long each side has much to offer the other. in a May 29 speech in Rio de Janeiro. As democracy deepens and middle classes emerge in the region. but Mexico City said last
."¶ The challenges facing Beijing and Washington lie in how each approaches the region. the people of both Latin America and China have a lot to look forward to in the evolution of their “South-South relations.as has happened before."¶ As with many new starts. We think there's great opportunity.”
Big Chinese plans for economic expansion in Latin America Regenstreif 13
Gary. But China is now looking to work with Mexico City .will be a burden or a key opportunity lies in the actions of Latin America.S. the region's second-largest market.¶ Washington's renewed ardor is at least partly because of the fear that China will repeat in Latin America the economic success it has built in Africa. One irritation that President Enrique Pe?a Nieto shared with Xi is that though Mexico posted a trade surplus with its global partners. is largely viewed in the region as unencumbered by ideology. a recognition of past mistakes is in order.S. gushed about the progress made by Latin America and trumpeted the region's growing international stature. "the United States doesn't start with a clean slate. Beijing has been competing with Mexico to supply the U.org/item/20130612201137-eda5t] June 12 //mtc In Obama's first term. for example." said Eric Farnsworth. The central issue is about governance: those countries that benefit over the long term from the current commodity boom will be the ones most judicious when it comes to future investments and industrial policy. it ran a big deficit with China. mining and energy because of the expected reforms that would open the oil industry to foreign investment." Biden said. stretching back to the 1823 Monroe Doctrine.largely through massive purchases of iron ore and soy. "For many in Brazil. That dropped to 10 percent in 2011. vice president of the Council of the Americas. which has played well against the West's history of meddling in domestic affairs. and its continuing desire to mix business with policy . But the world has changed."¶ China has particular interest in Mexico. Washington's domestic problems. There's some good reason for that skepticism.-China rivalry over Latin America” [http://www. its pivot to Asia and a host of global crises. which seeks to foster hemispheric ties.¶ There are obstacles ahead. “COLUMN . That skepticism still exists and it's understandable. We're optimistic.which muddies its approach to trade and investment.The looming U. the region's powerhouse .¶ China is looking for even more however.¶ "It's about influence and leverage. And China has moved in fast. It approaches opportunities almost exclusively on commercial terms there. also serve as distractions that could keep its actions in Latin America from matching its words . ¶ As
continues to develop. We're moving past old alignments. the United States accounted for 37 percent of Brazil's foreign direct investment. and Latin America is no exception. Fighting corruption is difficult anywhere..¶ "In the U." Biden said.trust. market with manufactured goods. China has been able to present itself as a benevolent partner there. according to the Council of the Americas. however.S. not China. "•The region matured and expects to be treated in real partnership rather than [in the] patronizing way it happened in the past.¶ China. In 2009. new stakeholders will hold governments accountable. meanwhile. leaving behind old suspicions and building new relationships.investing in infrastructure. China will undoubtedly play a significant role in its progress and advancement. Washington confronts lingering resentment about its historic regional interference. It is eager to pursue a free trade agreement with Mexico.¶ Other data is telling: In 1995.¶ China built its annual trade with the region from virtually nothing in 2000 to about $260 billion in 2012. the administration was widely viewed as neglecting Latin America. it overtook the United States as the largest trading partner of Brazil. "the discussion is no longer what it was when I was first elected as a young man: What could we do for the Americas? That's long since gone.
com/foreignpolicy/a-new-chapter-on-china-latin-american-cooperation/] June 1 //mtc In the past few years. Mexico's trade with the United States continues to flourish and it is due to displace Canada as the largest U. In contrast. ¶ Second. Likewise. China began supplanting the U. The voyages were meant to make the world aware of China’s greatness. by 62 percent. According to journalists Henry Sanderson and Michael Forsythe. exports to Latin America have dropped from 55 percent of the region’s total imports in 2000 to 32 percent in 2009. Peru. “A New Chapter on China-Latin American Cooperation” *http://www.3 billion in 2010. has contracted to build power transmission facilities in Caracas. has created enormous worldwide demand for natural resources and commodities. The talks include the United States..¶ China is also considering joining negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. CDB loans are often tied to contracts with Chinese companies. For instance. Admiral Zheng He sailed the Indian Ocean as far as east Africa in ships said to dwarf those of Europe at the time. superiority and presence. State Grid Corp. airports. In Venezuela. according to the Dialogue. Argentina. as China spreads its cash around the region.
China engagement increasing quickly Xiaoyang 13
Chen. roads and railroads are being constructed to insure the flow of vital resources fueling the vibrant Chinese economy. Increasing amounts of those loans are being allocated overseas. By 2014 it is estimated that China will overtake the European Union as the second largest trade partner in the Americas. Bridges. while imports increased to $90. its firms are making headway into Latin American markets. tracking a 42 percent gain. cooper. and ZTE. have reaped benefits from the high prices China pays for soybeans. a telecommunications firm. according to United Nations figures. China’s vast financial resources have allowed it to provide loans for infrastructure projects guaranteeing the flow of commodities. ¶ Finally. ¶ Third.S. At least four critical factors are discernable in analyzing China’s rise in Latin America since 2000. “The Counterbalance in America’s Backyard” *http://www.
China’s economic influence in Latin America is increasing Menéndez 13
Fernando. China’s largest power supplier. iron ore. According to a Latin Business Chronicle analysis of data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). China’s current expanding economic presence in Latin America is raising awareness of its potential role as a counter-weight in a region long designated as America’s backyard.chinausfocus. trade partner by the end of the decade. mainly to help develop infrastructure in Africa and Latin America. with frequent exchanges of high-level visit. Last year. Venezuela and
. Meanwhile. petroleum and other products. Asia and Australia. as China’s global trade expanded. China’s expanding economy. Venezuela. ¶ First.chinausfocus. China Development Bank (CDB) commands nearly a trillion dollars in assets and its total loans reach $876 billion. is building an offshore underwater cable. extended Chinese strategic partnership with Brazil.6 billion.S.com/foreignpolicy/the-counterbalance-in-americas-backyard-2/] May 28 //mtc In the early 15th century. The countries of Latin America. higher positions of the other side in each other’s strategy. long enjoying comparative advantages in commodity exports. averaging ten percent growth per year. Canada and other major economies on the Pacific rim. Chinese companies represent fully one fourth of CDB’s lending to that country or about $11.S. its bilateral trade with the region exploded at an annual rate of 40 percent since 2003. U. Chile. which aims to boost trade among the Americas. as top trading partner of several countries in the region.3 billion. in their new book China’s Superbank.week it was too soon. China-Latin America relations have registered much faster growth. ports. Chinese exports to Latin America surged to $88.
It is the largest trading partner of Brazil and Chile. Even amidst European debt crisis and global economic downturn. Bilateral economic exchanges are moving from trade-dominated to greater balance between trade and investment. China has signed free trade agreements with Chile. President Xi’s visit will certainly create a new momentum for bilateral cooperation. Xi met Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and Peruvian President Ollanta Humala Tasso at the Boao Forum for Asia. China is now the second largest trading partner of and a leading source of investment in Latin America. G20 summits and UN Conference on Sustainable Development to exchange views and coordinate positions. science and technology. Built on a decade of rapid expansion of ChinaLatin America relations. an 8.
. It is particularly eyecatching that since the new Chinese leadership took office high-level exchanges with Latin America have been even more frequent. Peru and Costa Rica. the Chinese and Latin American economies are high complementary. Furthermore. aerospace and humanities.Mexico and adoption by multiple Latin American countries of a China strategy or Asia Pacific strategy in which China is the focus of attention. In May. BRICS summits. bilateral trade reached 261.2 billion US dollars. In April.1% increase year-on-year. Cooperation mechanism has been improved innovatively by ways of earmarked funds and forums. In global affairs. President Jose Mujica of Uruguay had a successful visit to China. trade between China and Latin America has grown fairly rapidly. Cooperation has also expanded into the fields of agriculture. the two sides have made use of APEC meetings. In 2012.
tourism.¶ The construction of golf courses is one of the more recent brainchild’s of Raul Castro’s government
as a way to boost tourism.Cuba
China and Cuba just signed into new bilateral agreements Havana Times 6/3 (China to Invest in Cuba Golf Courses. www. including agreements to promote the construction of golf courses on the island. the paper said. kdf)
HAVANA TIMES – Cuba
and China signed several agreements to boost bilateral cooperation.¶ The
agreements were signed during the visit to the island of the Chinese Communist Party secretary for Beijing.org/?p=94034. reported DPA news.¶ Among them “is the project of creating joint ventures to build golf courses
in areas surround the capital Havana as well as the far western province of Pinar del Río” explained the official organ of the Communist Party of Cuba. Guo Jinlong. industry and biotechnology.
.havanatimes.¶ Representatives of the two countries signed on Sunday in Havana several agreements in the fields of transport. one of the main pillars of the island’s economy.
The short answer is: for simplicity’s sake. in addition to $35 billion already provided by Beijing. but significant nonetheless. The
beauty of having a chequebook as thick as China’s is that if you give your friends the cold shoulder. That may be why. you can always mollify them with money. Visits to Cuba and Venezuela might well have raised distracting questions when Mr Xi meets Barack Obama in Southern California on June 7th. the island’s latest fad.
.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/06/economist-explains-3. on June 6th. Venezuela’s oil minister announced that he had secured an extra $4 billion from China to drill for oil.Venezuela
China is making massive investments in Venezuela now The Economist 6/3 (Why Has China subbed Cuba and Venezuela. Not quite in the same league. and neither socialist government was likely to express publicly any offence at being left off the itinerary.economist.
www. the Havana Times reported
this week that China was also planning to invest in Cuban golf courses.
and helps promote unity and cooperation among developing countries.¶ The Chinese president arrived in Mexico City
earlier in the day for a three-day state visit aimed at lifting the China-Mexico strategic partnership to a higher level.
english. Mexico enter comprehensive strategic partnership.
.¶ Pena Nieto. and it also sets a clear target for the development of bilateral relations.Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Mexican counterpart Enrique Pena Nieto Tuesday announced to upgrade the bilateral relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership.Mexico
Mexico and China just upgraded their relationship Xinhua 6/5 (China.cn/206972/206976/8272224. kdf) MEXICO CITY .people.¶ During the talks. and held talks with Pena Nieto on bilateral cooperation.¶ The
Mexican side is ready to work with China to constantly improve cooperation at higher levels and through more effective mechanisms so as to achieve common development. said the upgrade of the Mexico-China ties indicates that bilateral cooperation has entered a new stage.¶ Xi said the decision to
upgrade the bilateral relationship is a realistic requirement. he said. for his part.html.com. the
two presidents agreed that strengthening the China-Mexico long-term friendly cooperation serves the fundamental interests of the two countries and two peoples.cpc.
.S.S. I asked Robert Pastor.org/post/why-china-behindfresh-us-moves-latin-america] May 27//mtc There are of course skeptics. ¶ “No it’s not.S. “President Obama’s trip (to Mexico and Central America) is a good first step. Moves In Latin America” *http://wlrn. when he declared that the hemisphere “matters more (to the U.the kind Biden offered the Council of the Americas in Washington recently.” he says. Latin America has heard a lot of rhetoric from the U.AT US Engagement Increasing
US economic engagement claims are just rhetoric Padgett 13
Tim.”¶ Pastor has a point: for decades.S. a former White House national security advisor for Latin America and now an international relations professor at American University in Washington.C. if he thinks the U. is doing enough to keep itself relevant in the Americas. “Why China Is Behind Fresh U.) today because it has more potential than any time in American history. but he needs to do a lot more to open up and show America’s interest in re-engaging with the rest of South America. about engagement -. D.”
The initial openness of¶ the region to promises of investment and trade by Chinese¶ President Hu Jintao came just after Latin America reached a¶ historic low with regard to flows¶ of investment from the United¶ States and other sources. such as the European Union. and Chinese commodity¶ purchases and
investments emerged as one of the¶ key factors helping these governments weather the crisis.org/PublicationFiles/IAD8661_China_Triangular0424v2e-may. as well as traditional¶ players. strengthened the perceived importance of the¶ PRC for Latin American governments . Although journalistic¶ and academic accounts often suggest that the 19th century¶ Monroe Doctrine
continues to be pursued by contemporary¶ US policymakers. it has not been the only¶ player to which Latin America has looked as the region¶ seeks to engage globally.Link: Perception
Latin American countries perceieve US involvement. The United States.thedialogue. made the military leadership of the country reluctant¶ to procure major military items from the PRC. Attention also has been given to¶ India and other emerging markets of Asia. for¶ example. Colombia’s close relationship with the United States. May.
engagement with Latin American¶ countries has impacted the ability of the PRC to develop¶ military and other ties in the region .27 Nonetheless. kdf) The ability of the United States to serve as a market and¶ a source of investment for Latin America has influenced the¶ region’s receptivity toward the PRC . Evan [associate professor with the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense
Studies]. while the PRC has occupied¶ an important symbolic role as the largest and most visible¶ source of new capital and markets. Latin America and China: A Triangular Relationship.¶ At the political level. Latin America’s own leadership has¶ responded to Chinese initiatives with a view of how engagement¶ with China could damage its relationship with the United¶ States.pdf. and actors such¶ as Russia and Iran. with a presumed desire to “keep China out”¶ of the region.¶ Nonetheless. www.26 official US policy has repeatedly met Chinese initiatives in the hemisphere with a cautiously welcoming¶ tone.25¶ The 2007-2009 global financial¶ crisis. as noted earlier. which significantly¶ impaired US purchases of Latin¶ American exports and US credit¶ to the region .28¶
. the more it becomes involved the more likely China gets crowded out Ellis 2012 (R.
Evan [associate professor with the William J. Colombia. China. and this week in Mexico City.foreignpolicy. both at the April summit in Boao.Link: Mexico Mexico is trying to create distance with the US in favor of China. Mexico. a new subregional organization built around a group of four pro-market. allow him to differentiate himself from his pro-U.S. predecessor. Jun 6. China's New Backyard.
.1. plan reverses this Ellis 2013 (R. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense
Studies]. Felipe Calderón. pro-trade countries (Chile. Mexico's role in forming the Pacific Alliance. and Peru) allows Mexico to reassert a leadership role in the Americas. Similarly. it's the Latin American country closest to the United States where Xi might be able to make up the most ground.com/articles/2013/06/06/china_s_new_backyard_latin_america?page=0. www. Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto's engagement with the Chinese president. kdf) Ironically. relatively independent of the United States.
S. may be on the path to energy independence. The U. What Chinese investment in Latin America means for the US energy sector.Link: Energy Aff
The US will use energy policy to crowd out China Wallwork 2013
(Lucy [graduate of Durham University and currently works as a research associate at Berlin-based OpenOil].S. www.
.html#.multibriefs. in its "backyard" won't be given up easily.-based multinationals in South America? According to a briefing by the Inter-American Dialogue.S. trade relations hints that the relations built up over years by the U." But the latest multiweek series by Today in Energy (an EIA bulletin) on ongoing Mexico-U. Western multinationals still enjoy comparatively strong positions where they operate.com/briefs/exclusive/what_does_chinese_investment_us_energy.S.S. kdf) So what of the operations of U. but the Chinese companies scrabbling around at the bottom of the garden is unlikely to go unnoticed. as a result of Chinese investment in Latin America is "limited at best.UdMpS_nviSo . so the extent of damage felt by the U.
. but China’s actions and increasing integration into the region tell us that such a scenario may one day arise. this region could be the symbolic battle that best measures the continued hegemony of the U. In that regard.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-sand-chinese-presence-in-the-region/. the Chinese are not broadening their relations with the region in a way that directly competes with the United States. the competition may go beyond a race to Latin commodities and move into the realm of fighting for political influence. China is strictly concerned with commodities. Given the proximity and importance of Latin America to the United States. www. This symbolic move could cause tensions to increase as the world’s two largest oil consumers battle over rights to Brazilian oil. Apr 15. kdf) As it stands. President Barack Obama recently signed an agreement with Brazil’s Petrobras that will allow the oil company to drill in the Gulf of Mexico. versus China.S.Link: Oil Drilling
Brazil proves the plan crowds out China Cerna 2011 (Michael [graduate student in International Policy Management at Kennesaw State
University]. China's Growing Presence in Latin America: Implications for US and Chinese Presence in the Region.chinacenter. including oil. U. It is odd to think that the United States would need to compete for hemispheric dominance with a country on the other side of the globe.
¶ The White House’s agenda toward the area has been reduced to discussing subjects such¶ as drug trafﬁcking. indeed. on the willingness¶ of American policymakers to implement a coherent and active policy toward their hemisphere. becoming a more important trade¶
partner for some of these economies than the U. to a great degree. adopt intellectual property provisions that give preferences to U. China’s
increasing demand for commodities is promoting the economic growth of many Latin American nations.com/doi/pdf/10.) in financing.S.S.S. running out of time to reset Latin American economic approach” [http://www. however. when U.Link: Generic
Engagement with Latin America trades off with Chinese influence in the region Francisco De Santibanes. on the basis of a triple form of conditions. This scenario¶ would allow the PRC to counterbalance the American presence in Northeast Asia by having¶ its own allies in the Western Hemisphere.¶ Talk about a heavily conditioned offer.¶ might someday become critical.tandfonline. “U. but according to press reports.¶ Meanwhile. some nations might¶ be tempted to change their loyalties from the Americans to the Chinese in search of the¶ ﬁnancial and military resources they might need to strengthen their positions. "An end to US hegemony? The strategic implications of China's
growing presence in latin america.S.¶ The United States’s principal offer to its Latin American neighbours is the Trans-Pacific Partnership.¶ • $1. although not urgent. is today. we might be moving toward a continent¶ divided into two camps: a northern region that will remain under the economic and political¶ control of the United States and a Southern Cone more inclined to join China’s sphere¶ of inﬂuence.¶ So what’s the Chinese approach? On his visit to the region.¶ The difference in approaches by the United States and China in Latin America were brought into focus this past week. would endanger American security." Comparative Strategy. to its new-found Latin American friends. The TPP offers access to the U. 2009. is that China has been lining up economic allies in the erstwhile “backyard” of the United States.¶ The presence of China in the Western Hemisphere might. they must deregulate their financial markets.3-billion to Costa
.¶ As a result of the reduction in Washington’s involvement in the region. especially¶ those situated at its Southern Cone. proposals in international forums. Vice President Joseph Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping made tours of Latin America. making them less dependent of the Americans.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/us-running-out-of-timeto-reset-latin-american-economic-approach/article12420989/] June 7 //mtc The Obama administration and U. disputes among¶ Latin American states have grown dramatically.theglobeandmail. If
this trend continues. What has largely escaped their attention. This article¶ suggests that the strategic consequences of these new developments. the Bush administration has not paid enough attention to what is happening in the Western Hemisphere.1080/01495930802679728
But now the status quo seems to be changing.
Renewed US economic engagement undercuts China’s influence Ghallager 13
Kevin. The¶ People’s Republic of China (PRC) is. second. media have made much ado about the U.S. as the number of visits¶ paid by Chinese political and military ofﬁcials shows. illegal immigration and a—modest— expansion of free trade. allow private U.S.S. it is time for the United States to step up a suitable economic policy for Latin America before it is too late. http://www. China’s President Xi Jinping offered more than $5.S.3¶ Latin¶ Americans have reacted to the lack of a stronger commitment by reducing their links with¶ the American economy and opposing U. Whether this will happen will depend. Actually. These offers will need to be confirmed. be seeding the ﬁeld¶ for a series of political alliances that. market to Latin American and Asian nations. as a matter of fact. firms to directly sue governments of countries that sign up to the TPP for violating any of its conditions.S.3-billion (U. once unleashed. and third. “pivot” to Asia. while the political and military ¶ links between the continent and China have also gained momentum.¶ First. the Chinese have signed deals on this trip for:¶ • $3-billion in commitments to eight Caribbean countries for infrastructure and energy. with few conditions attached.S. firms. distracted by the Iraq War and its ﬁght against al Qaeda.¶ Just as serious competition ought to awaken one’s creative juices in business.
. Interests. China’s policy banks have provided more finance to Latin America than their counterparts at the World Bank. it may be too late. the U.S. To put it into proper perspective.
US economic engagement with Latin America cuts of Chinese access Pham 10
Peter. China makes sure that its policy is not based on conditions. ‘‘I mean they are building very strong eco-¶ nomic and political connections¶ . “China's Strategic Penetration of Latin America: What It Means for U. Those countries rightfully don’t see that as much of a growth-enhancing development approach.” American Foreign Policy Interests.S. However. too much of the interaction with regional governments has been on such efforts as concentrating on drug interdiction.¶ If anything ought to awaken the United States from its past slumber and its taking Latin America essentially for granted. China offers up its loans come with few strings attached. offer of a Trans-Pacific Partnership to all of the Latin American countries in the TPP process doesn’t amount to much in the real world.¶ It is high time for the U. p363-381 (Nov/Dec) //mtc All of this led to Secretary of State Hillary¶ Rodham Clinton telling an audience of Foreign¶ Service officers during a town hall meeting at¶ the State Department last year that she found¶ the gains that China was making in Latin¶ America ‘‘quite disturbing.S. It hasn’t worked out that way. homeland.¶ For too long.S. consider this: Since 2003.¶ When President Obama took office.S.’’ She went on to¶ add. Thus far.¶ In just a few years. U. the Chinese don’t lack a strong commercial focus. advanced?¶ First.S.S. it cannot continue to take the region for granted. indeed. defensive mechanism to protect the U.¶ . Unlike U. control.¶ But it’s not just a matter of sheer numbers. and¶ • A $1-billion credit line from the China Ex-Im bank to Mexico for its state-owned oil company PEMEX.Rica in loans and lines of credit. 32 Issue 6. but rather as a foreign-based. might American¶ interests be secured and. he and his team pledged to hit the reset button with the region and rethink its trade regime with Latin America. Vol. I don’t think¶ that’s in our interest. Simply put. They are the most important economies in Latin America. the Inter-American Development Bank and the U. trade treaties or the finance from the international financial institutions largely under U. the United States has relied on a rather imperial mechanism – just telling Latin America what it needs.¶ Making available this financing comes on top of the $86-billion in financing already provided by China to Latin American governments since 2003. China has become the number one (in the case of Brazil and Chile) or number two trading partner (for Peru and Mexico). They already have trade treaties with the United States that grant them access to the U. in the face¶ of China’s growing commercial and political¶ relationships across the region.’’¶ 85¶ How then. Compare that with China’s approach: It offers Latin America what it wants (in the form of financing and trade from China). These aren’t just any countries. market. the United States and the array of largely Western-dominated international financial institutions have been outgunned by China’s financial muscle.¶ Of course. that comparison ought to do it.¶ In addition.S. policymakers need to acknowl-¶ edge that America’s Latin American and¶ Caribbean neighbors matter to the United¶ States not only for its traditional security inter-¶ est in limiting the influence
.¶ That said.. including a $900-million loan from the Chinese Development Bank for upgrading a petroleum refinery and a $400-million line of credit for road infrastructure from the Chinese Ex-Im Bank. “reset” has essentially meant making the same old offer. Very soon. Export-Import Bank. In a region that is understandably very sensitive to any notions of conditionality due to painful past experiences with the IMF and the World Bank. Welcome to the brave new world. government to undertake a true rethink of its economic policy toward Latin America. the United States is still the most important economic partner for the region overall. but via new faces. Often the Chinese provide a tied offer – requiring that Chinese firms will be hired to conduct a bulk of the envisioned project work.¶ What is more.S.
the free trade¶ agreements with those two countries have still¶ not been ratified. prosperity of the nations of¶ the Western Hemisphere.¶ the United States should privilege building¶ institutional capacity over the mere provision¶ of aid. Thanks to proximity as well¶ as longstanding familiarity. policy. When the trends to¶ greater ownership by the countries of the region¶ of their own individual destinies are added to¶ the limitations that the current fiscal crisis¶ and the burdens of other challenges impose¶ upon U. In its engagements with¶ its Latin American and Caribbean neighbors. energy imports come from Central and¶ South American countries and the region buys¶ 20 percent of all of U. the fact that the region is¶ ‘‘shaping its future far more than it shaped its¶ past’’¶ 86¶ ought to be welcomed. the region remains an important¶ source of energy and other commodities for the¶ United States as well as a major market for¶ American goods and services. in¶ a rare move. businesses¶ still have a comparative advantage over over-¶ seas competitors in the markets of the Western¶ Hemisphere.¶ and.S.¶ 88¶ Yet absent proac-¶ tive White House leadership. more than the¶ European Union. About 25 percent¶ of U. exports.¶ Second.S. security. ultimately. rather than lament the passing of¶ an era when the United States unilaterally dic-¶ tated the terms of engagement with its Latin¶ American neighbors.¶ In his 2010 State of the Union address.S. while the North American¶ Free Trade Agreement that came into force¶ under President Bill Clinton was undermined¶ by last year’s enactment of a measure canceling¶ a pilot program that allowed carefully screened¶ Mexican trucks to carry cargo in the United¶ States.S. Presi-¶ dent Obama singled out Colombia and Panama¶ as ‘‘key partners’’ with which he promised to¶ strengthen trade relations.¶ especially since the World Trade Organization¶ has already ruled the subsidies illegal and. policy in the region: the stability. Engaging Latin¶ American governments and peoples on mutu-¶ ally agreeable terms is by far a more sustainable¶ foundation for what ought to be the goals of¶ U.¶ 87¶ Thus the administration must¶ recommit itself to building on those solid¶ foundations to reinforce and expand America’s¶ economic ties with its neighbors to the south.S.¶ Third.of outside powers¶ in the Americas but also because globalization¶ has accelerated the momentum for the¶ increased integration of all of the nations in¶ the Western Hemisphere and regional¶ cooperation is required to meet a whole host¶ of transnational challenges ranging from spur-¶ ring economic growth to illegal immigration to¶ narcotics trafficking to environmental issues. authorized the imposition of puni-¶ tive sanctions against American products. despite China’s efforts to secure¶ access to Latin America’s natural resources¶ and markets.¶ Hence it is in the interests of the United States¶ to renew relations with the countries to its¶ south by developing and articulating a compre-¶ hensive strategy that clearly puts to rest the¶ legacy of ‘‘benign neglect’’ of the region. tariffs on¶ Brazilian ethanol and to settle a dispute over¶ cotton subsidies with the South American giant¶ would not only promote trade but would also¶ clear the air between Washington and Brasilia.S. it becomes apparent that¶ American interests are best advanced by more¶ modest expectations and better targeting of¶ available resources. Movement to repeal U.
while affairs hang in the balance when it comes to South and Central
Asia. the Summit was to take a stock of where the two powers are heading. Pakistan Today. His visit included Cost Rica and Mexico. kdf)
China-US ties are moving towards cooperation in the Middle East and Africa.¶ This alteration may have to do with and connected to the American pivot to the Asia Pacific. Although American scholars are very reluctantly pointing to this. Just before Xi's trip. the suspicion is there. Most
of the US and Chinese activities in Latin America have to do with trade and economics.¶ The path of the Xi's trip to the US passed through Latin America. The Chinese may be sneaking in to the American home sphere of influence using the garb of trade .
.Link: Asia Pivot
The Asian pivot results in China increasing influence in L. Lexis. Ansar 6/20
(Arif.A. in the Asia Pacific and Americas matters appear to be tilting more towards rivalry. but the experts agree that something may be fundamentally changing in the Americas. Obama and Biden made their own trips to almost the same states. Pivot to Pacific boomerangs. And. nonetheless.
Despite its avowals to Washington.5 billion through 2004. The presidents of all those and other countries have paid reciprocal visits to China. mineral. Though China's foreign policy strategy toward the developing world prioritizes South Asia and
Africa over Latin America. Since then. 69. and the Battle for Latin America. which do not enjoy Brazil's or Argentina's abundance in export commodities and are inclined to view the competition posed by the endless supply of cheap Chinese labor as a menace to their nascent manufacturing sectors. and military concerns. China. CHINA V. and elsewhere. Pressure is also being placed on Paraguay by Argentina. Beijing has begun enlisting regional powers like Mexico to aid its effort to woo Central American diplomats. Chinese President Jiang Zemin's landmark visit to the region sparked a wave of visits by senior officials and business leaders to discuss political. its partners in the South American Common Market (Mercosur). As a rising superpower without a colonial or "imperialist" history in the Western Hemisphere. China appears to be using [*76] its economic might as a means to achieve the patently political objective of stripping Taiwan of its democratic allies in the Western Hemisphere. Chinese investment in Latin America remains relatively small at some $ 6. Brazil. n12 Nevertheless. at a pace of some 60 percent a year.China Solves the Aff
China solves better than the US in Latin America Erikson and Chen 2007 (Daniel P. China's galloping entrance into the Latin American market for energy resources and other commodities has been accompanied by an accelerating pace of high-level visits by Chinese officials to the region over the past few years. 31 Fletcher F.¶ But even as China seeks to reassure the United States that its interests in South America are purely economic. although government officials have since backed away from that pledge and several proposed investments are already showing signs of falling short in Brazil. this last relationship has experienced explosive growth. benefiting principally the commodity-producing countries of South America--particularly Argentina. economic. FIGURE 2. most
analysts recognize that Latin America's embrace of China--to the extent that this
has actually occurred--is intimately linked to its perception of neglect and disinterest from the U nited States. and Chile. n9 China's Xinhua News agency reported that Chinese trade with the Caribbean exceeded $ 2 billion in 2004. the volume of trade between China and the region has skyrocketed. World Aff. Chinese imports from Latin America have grown more than six-fold. Peru. Argentina. Chile. especially for politicians confronted with constituencies that are increasingly anti-American and skeptical of Western intentions. China is in many ways more politically attractive than either the U nited States
or the European Union. but that amount represents half of China's foreign investment overseas.¶
engagement with Latin America responds to the requirements of a booming Chinese economy that has been growing at nearly 10 percent per year for the past quarter century. Nervousness about China's rise runs deeper among the smaller economies such as those of Central America. and Chile. which places certain constraints on member states' bilateral foreign policy prerogatives.
Latin Americans are intrigued by the idea of China as a potential partner for trade and investment.
. Taiwan. Brazil. In 2001. a 40 percent increase from the previous year. to an estimated $ 60 billion in 2006. President Hu Jintao traveled to Argentina. Brazil. China has become a major consumer of food. and other
primary products from Latin America. kdf) Meanwhile. The economic figures are impressive: in the past six years. [Senior Associate for US policy @ Inter-American Dialogue] and
Janice [joint-degree candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and Georgetown University Law Center]. and Cuba in 2004 and visited Mexico in 2005. TAIWAN: TRADING WITH LATIN AMERICA n11¶ [*75] For their part. n10 China has promised to increase its investments in Latin America to $ 100 billion by 2014.
cnn. Energy-hungry China scours the globe to secure future supplies. More than half of China's oil demand depends on imports. ¶ In addition. kdf) China's energy imports are so fundamental to its survival and development that China's new leadership has taken extraordinary steps to secure future supplies.Chinese Energy Security Mod
Latin America is key to China’s energy security Xiaoxia 2013
(Wang. It must also help solidify the important links of the petroleum
industry supply chain. too. North Korea and South Korea. May 6. conservation and technological advances.worldcrunch. Landay. and can't just play the simple role of consumer.¶ "The rest of Asia and the world cannot enjoy prosperity and stability without China. key energy exporters Indonesia. China hosted a visit by Australian leader Julia Gillard."
. and renewable energy pioneer Germany. www. whose discussions with Xi and Li touched on clean energy expertise and the burgeoning resources trade between the two countries. Diversification is inevitable.
East Asian instability leads to World War III
Knight Ridder in ‘00
(Jonathon S. and North Korea may have a few.S." said Bates Gill. China has consumed one-third of the world's new oil production and become the world's second-largest oil importer.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latinamerica/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/. jolt the global economy and even start a nuclear war. the demand for oil has always been the most powerful driving force. negotiations and diplomatic relationships that helped keep an uneasy peace for five decades in Cold War Europe. May 28.¶ Among the numerous needs of China. South Korea and Europe. Since then. There are elements for potential disaster.com/china-2.¶ In a flurry of official visits over the past two months involving President Xi Jinping. 3-11. Premier Li Keqiang and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. India. or India and Pakistan are spoiling to fight. By providing funds and assisting in infrastructure constructions.com/2013/05/28/business/china-energy. Pakistan and China all have nuclear weapons. But
Xi maintains that China's investments are creating development opportunities for the rest of Asia and the world. “Top administration officials warn stakes for U. the China National Petroleum Corporation frequently appears in Latin American countries. ¶ China's push for energy security and its willingness to buy assets around the globe may drive up costs for other energy importers like India. China’s
activities in Latin America were limited to the diplomatic level. which increases the instability of its energy security. Japan.¶ China
must better protect its energy supply. Indeed.
Chinese energy security is key to Asian stability Hiscock 2013 (Geoff.and its exchanges with Latin America thus are endowed with real substantive purpose. are high in Asian conflicts”. Asia lacks the kinds of organizations. But even
a minor miscalculation by any of them could destabilize Asia. China managed to interrupt diplomatic ties between poor Latin countries and Taiwan. "We see the convergence of great power interest overlaid with lingering confrontations with no institutionalized security mechanism in place."
Xi told the Boao Forum held on the Chinese island of Hainan island last month. In this context. with China's economic boom. "Nowhere else on Earth are the stakes as high and relationships so fragile. In America's Backyard: China's Rising Influence in Latin America. and China’s investment and trade in the Latin American countries are also focused on its energy sector. the supply of energy and resources has gradually become a
problem that plagues China -. a Washington think tank.
edition. Brunei and South Africa. They will have to compete with China through a combination of co-operation. L/N) Few if any experts think China and Taiwan. China has sought to bolster its energy relations with
big strategic neighbors Russia and India. director of northeast Asian policy studies at the Brookings Institution. kdf)
Initially. emerging resources suppliers such as Tanzania and the Republic of Congo in Africa. In the past 30 years. Latin America and its huge reserves and production capacity naturally became a destination for China.
criminal¶ states. it is still not in a position to challenge the strong and diverse influence that the United States has accumulated over two centuries in the region. and thus inadvertently acquire political influence? Or the other way round?¶ Presumably most U. torture. arms.63 Thus. Even if China has become the Latin American economy’s new upstart.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latinamerica/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/. Chávez’s intent is to focus his primary attack politically¶ and psychologically on selected Latin American governments’¶ ability and right to govern. and conflict. More specifically. but brings benefits. whether they¶ involve criminal business enterprise. trafficking in women and¶ body parts. in addition to helping to provide¶ wider latitude to further their tactical and operational objectives.¶ destabilization. these¶ conditions spawn all kinds of things people in general do not like such¶ as murder. www.¶ criminality..¶ the recruitment and use of child soldiers. poverty. ¶ state and nonstate actors’ strategic efforts are aimed at progressively¶ lessening a targeted regime’s credibility and capability in terms of its¶ ability and willingness to govern and develop its national territory¶ and society.¶ For South America. as well as stabilized these countries' livelihood -. As a consequence.62¶ Peru’s Sendero Luminoso calls violent and
destructive activities¶ that facilitate the processes of state failure “armed propaganda.”¶ Drug cartels operating throughout the Andean Ridge of South¶ America and elsewhere call these activities “business incentives. trafficking and proliferation of conventional weapons¶ systems and WMD. Army colonel and an Adjunct Professor of International Politics at
Dickinson College.and to a certain extent reduced the impact of illegal immigration and the drug trade on the U. intimidation.”¶ Chávez considers these actions to be steps that must be taken to bring about the political conditions necessary to establish Latin American¶ socialism for the 21st century. Brazil.64¶ But failing and failed states simply do not go away. disease. instability and the threat of subverting or destroying¶ such a government are real. insurgency. It is precisely because China has reached "loans-for-oil" swap agreements with Venezuela. In America's Backyard: China's Rising Influence in Latin America. venezuela’s hugo chávez. kdf)
So what does China want exactly in entering Latin American? Is it to obtain a stable supply of energy and resources. warlordism. May 6. kidnapping. and¶ criminal anarchy. These¶ conditions breed massive humanitarian
disasters and major refugee¶ flows. narcotrafficking. Virtually¶ anyone can take advantage of such an unstable situation.¶ and lack of upward mobility limit the right and the ability of a given¶ regime to conduct the business of the state. genocide. October 2005. They can host “evil” networks of all kinds. Until a given populace¶ generally perceives that its government is dealing with these and¶ other basic issues of political.pdf)
President Chávez also understands that the process leading to¶ state failure is the most dangerous long-term security challenge¶ facing the global community today.S. Not only have these funds been used in the field of oil production. Ecuador and other countries that it brings much-needed funds to these oil-producing countries in South America. In connection with¶ the creation of new people’s democracies. and asymmetric warfare.
Instability causes Extinction Manwaring ‘5 (Max G. rogue states. poverty. ethnic cleansing. regional conflict. and destruction of¶ infrastructure. or some form¶ of ideological crusade such as Bolivarianismo. foreign policy-makers are well aware of the answer. The¶ tendency is that the best motivated and best armed organization¶ on the scene will control that instability.S. These
means of coercion and persuasion can spawn¶ further human rights violations. At the same time. one can rest assured that¶
Chávez and his Bolivarian populist allies will be available to provide¶ money. failing¶ and failed states become dysfunctional states. or new people’s democracies. In that context. corruption. bolivarian socialism.S.com/china-2. and leadership at
involvement in the Latin American continent doesn’t constitute a threat to the United States. but a multiple choice of mutual benefits and synergies. he understands that¶ popular perceptions of corruption. disenfranchisement. narco-states. The argument in general is that¶ failing
and failed state status is the breeding ground for instability. but they have also safeguarded the energy supply of the United States. Retired U. starvation. and social injustice fairly¶ and effectively. and terrorism.Latin American Instability Mod
Crowding out China destabilizes Latin America and hurts the US Xiaoxia 2013
(Wang. this is not a zero-sum game. pg. economic.worldcrunch. these actions are usually¶ unconfined and spill over into regional syndromes of poverty. China and the United States. PUB628.
any given opportunity. the more they and their associated¶ problems endanger global security.65
. criminal. and narco-states¶ and people’s democracies persist. the longer dysfunctional. rogue. And. peace. of¶ course. and prosperity.
Latin American Economies Turn
China is beneficial to Latin American countries Shifter 2012
(Michael; China Engages Columbia, Challenges the United States; Oct 29; www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3120; kdf)
A significant narrative of foreign policy in the 21st century has been the rapid ascension of large developing countries –China particularly stands out – as a counterweight or challenge to US hegemony.¶ To be sure, talk of declining American influence has been around for decades. But in recent years, Chinese
presence into traditional US spheres of influence has become increasingly salient. ¶ Nowhere is such a change clearer than in the Latin America, long considered the United States “backyard.” More and more, the region’s leaders are looking east instead of north when developing policies to compete in today's global economy. This shift presents both significant opportunities and challenges for the region.¶ Already, China is the major trading partner of Brazil, Chile, and Peru – and will soon be the second largest of Colombia (10 years ago it was 14th). The country’s growing presence in the region is largely a function of its tremendous appetite for commodities – abundant in South America – which have fueled its spectacular development. China has moved aggressively to take advantage of opportunities in the region in which the US has been disengaged. For South America, the results have largely been positive , as reflected in high growth rates, which have enabled a substantial reduction in poverty and even inequality.
Drug War Turn
Chinese engagement solves narcotrafficking Ellis 2012 (R. Evan [associate professor with the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense
Studies]; The United States, Latin America and China: A Triangular Relationship; May; www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD8661_China_Triangular0424v2e-may.pdf; kdf)
On the positive side, China’s
donation of goods to countries¶ and its sale of goods at relatively low prices have contributed¶ to the ability of governments in the region to assert¶ control over national territory and meet such challenges as narcotrafficking. The use of Chinese K-8 aircraft, purchased¶ by Bolivia from the PRC, is one
example. The donation of¶ trucks and buses to the Bolivian armed forces and non-lethal¶ gear to the Jamaica Defense Force are other such examples.15
2NC I/L—Latin America K/T China Econ
Access to Latin America key to sustain Chinese growth—raw resources and exports Ferchen 12—resident scholar @ Carnegie
Matt, “China’s Latin American Interests” *http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/04/06/china-s-latinamerican-interests/a7av] April 6 //mtc China-Latin America relations, especially economic ties, have boomed in the last decade. Between 2000 and 2010 China-Latin America trade expanded over 1,500 percent, and between 2008 and 2010 alone China’s investment in the region expanded more than 180 percent.¶ This boom in economic relations has been primarily driven by strong Chinese demand for South American mineral, agricultural, and energy resources like copper, iron ore, soybeans, and oil . At the same time, Latin America has become an important destination for increasing amounts of Chinese manufactured-good exports ranging from modems to motorcycles.
2NC MPX—Econ—AT No Escalation
Accesses all great power hotspots Green and Schrage 9 – Senior Advisor and Japan Chair @ CSIS and Associate Professor @
Georgetown University AND CSIS School Chair in International Business and Former Senior Official with the US Trade Representative’s Office (Michael J. and Steven P., “It’s not just the economy,” State Department and Ways & Means Committee, Asia Times, 3/26, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/asian_economy/kc26dk01.html Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank and the US Central Intelligence Agency are just beginning to contemplate the ramifications for international stability if there is not a recovery in the next year. For the most part, the focus has been on fragile states such as some in Eastern Europe.¶ However, the Great Depression taught us that a downward global economic spiral can even have jarring impacts on great powers . It is no mere coincidence that the last great global economic downturn was followed by the most destructive war in human history. ¶ In the 1930s, economic desperation helped fuel autocratic regimes and protectionism in a downward economic-security death spiral that engulfed the world in conflict. This spiral was aided by the preoccupation of the United States and other leading nations with economic troubles at home and insufficient attention to working with other powers to maintain stability abroad. Today's challenges are different, yet 1933's London Economic Conference, which failed to stop the drift toward deeper depression and world war, should be a cautionary tale for leaders heading to next month's London Group of 20 (G-20) meeting. ¶ There is no question the US must urgently act to address banking issues and to restart its economy. But the lessons of the past suggest that we will also have to keep an eye on those fragile threads in the international system that could begin to unravel if the financial crisis is not reversed early in the Barack Obama administration and realize that economics and security are intertwined in most of the critical challenges we face.¶ A disillusioned rising power? Four areas in Asia merit particular attention, although so far the current financial crisis has not changed Asia's fundamental strategic picture. China is not replacing the US as regional hegemon, since the leadership in Beijing is too nervous about the political implications of the financial crisis at home to actually play a leading role in solving it internationally.¶ Predictions that the US will be brought to its knees because China is the leading holder of US debt often miss key points. China's currency controls and full employment/export-oriented growth strategy give Beijing few choices other than buying US Treasury bills or harming its own economy. Rather than creating new rules or institutions in international finance, or reorienting the Chinese economy to generate greater long-term consumer demand at home, Chinese leaders are desperately clinging to the status quo (though Beijing deserves credit for short-term efforts to stimulate economic growth).¶ The greater danger with China is not an eclipsing of US leadership, but instead the kind of shift in strategic orientation that happened to Japan after the Great Depression. Japan was arguably not a revisionist power before 1932 and sought instead to converge with the global economy through open trade and adoption of the gold standard.¶ The worldwide depression and protectionism of the 1930s devastated the newly exposed Japanese economy and contributed directly to militaristic and autarkic policies in Asia as the Japanese people reacted against what counted for globalization at the time. China today is similarly converging with the global economy, and many experts believe China needs at least 8% annual growth to sustain social stability. Realistic growth predictions for 2009 are closer to 5%.¶ Veteran China hands were watching closely when millions of migrant workers returned to work after the Lunar New Year holiday last month to find factories closed and
which has distracted the world's leading nations. but nationwide unrest seems unlikely this year. There were pockets of protests. but that may depend on the extent that authoritarian leaders care about the well-being of their people or face internal political pressures linked to the economy.jobs gone.
. Iran continues its nuclear program while exploiting differences between the US. limited their moral authority and sown potential discord. With Beijing worried about the potential impact of North Korean belligerence or instability on Chinese internal stability. So far. Myanmar and Iran have all intensified their defiance in the wake of the financial crisis. But to thrive.¶ The string of old and new democracies in East Asia has helped to anchor US relations with China and to maintain what former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice once called a "balance of power that favors freedom".¶ The junta in Myanmar has chosen this moment to arrest hundreds of political dissidents and thumb its nose at fellow members of the 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations. A reversal of the democratic expansion of the past two decades would not only impact the global balance of power but also increase the potential number of failed states. the economic slowdown has only just begun and nobody is certain how it will impact the social contract in China between the ruling communist party and the 1.¶ If the Japanese example is any precedent. with all the attendant risk they bring from harboring terrorists to incubating pandemic diseases and trafficking in persons. Thailand's new coalition government has an uncertain future after two years of post-coup drift and now economic crisis.¶ Dangerous states¶ It is noteworthy that North Korea.particularly to China . The economic crisis has hit democracies hard. and leaders in Japan and South Korea under siege in parliament because of the collapse of their stock markets. a sustained economic slowdown has the potential to open a dangerous path from economic nationalism to strategic revisionism in China too. leaders in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang have grown increasingly boisterous about their country's claims to great power status as a nuclear weapons state.¶ Challenges to the democratic model¶ The trend in East Asia has been for developing economies to steadily embrace democracy and the rule of law in order to sustain their national success. new democracies also have to deliver basic economic growth.differences that could become more pronounced if economic friction with Beijing or Russia crowds out cooperation or if Western European governments grow nervous about sanctions as a tool of policy. UK and France (or the P-3 group) and China and Russia . and Chinese leaders are working around the clock to ensure that it does not happen next year either. there is little evidence to suggest either and much evidence to suggest these dangerous states see an opportunity to advance their asymmetrical advantages against the international system.is sure to undermine Ma's argument that a more accommodating stance toward Beijing will bring economic benefits to Taiwan).¶ It is possible that the economic downturn will make these dangerous states more pliable because of falling fuel prices (Iran) and greater need for foreign aid (North Korea and Myanmar). It would also undermine the demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home.3 billion Chinese who have come to see President Hu Jintao's call for "harmonious society" as inextricably linked to his promise of "peaceful development". However. with Japanese Prime Minister Aso Taro's approval collapsing to single digits in the polls and South Korea's Lee Myung-bak and Taiwan's Ma Ying Jeou doing only a little better (and the collapse in Taiwan's exports .
dyadic and national levels. if the expectations of future trade decline. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. the likelihood for conflict increases . 1999). Hess. Department of Defense
Jedediah. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. Legal and Political Perspectives. particularly during periods of economic downturn.2NC MPX—Econ—Royal
Statistical evidence supports our impact Royal 10 — Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon. p. Second. Furthermore. Goldsmith and Brauer. (Blomberg & Hess. 1995).4 Third. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. Alternatively. DeRouen (1995). exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. Copeland's (1996. & Weerapana. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. 2002. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises?”. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources. As such. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. medium and small powers. sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. However. on a dyadic level. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent states. which in turn returns the favour. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. Gelpi (1997). 'Diversionary theory' suggests that. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. and Blomberg. Miller (1999). “Economic Integration. Moreover. 213-215 Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states. Wang (1996). p. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. First. Hess. Separately. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict. Several notable contributions follow. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. ed. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Economics of War and Peace: Economic. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of
. They write. 2004).S. on the systemic level. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major.
In summary. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. Those studies tend to focus on dyadic interdependence instead of global interdependence and do not specifically consider the occurrence of and conditions created by economic crises. This observation is not contradictory to other perspectives that link economic interdependence with a decrease in the likelihood of external conflict.domestic support. the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views. As such. and thus weak Presidential popularity.
. dyadic and national levels. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. recent economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. such as those mentioned in the first paragraph of this chapter.5 This implied connection between integration. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic.
. ¶ Fourth. “The U. Mutual visits by defense and military officials of the two sides.com/foreignpolicy/the-u-s-worry-factor-in-sino-latin-american-relations/] November 3 //mtc The U. China’s military relations with Latin America are undertaken according to the following principles: 1) to gain better understanding of the Latin American military. China does not wish to be used as a “card” against the United States. China well understands that Latin America is the backyard of the United States. published in November 2008. China’s first policy paper on Latin America. It said: “The Chinese side will actively carry out military exchanges and defense dialogue and cooperation with Latin American and Caribbean countries.¶ First. will be enhanced.S.¶ Finally. Factor in Sino-Latin American Relations” *http://www. national interest and dominance in the western hemisphere. It endeavors to attract more foreign investment and liberalize the market to stimulate growth.2NC AT MPX Turn—Chinese Aggression
China not using Latin America as a political card —only for economic growth Shixue 11
Jiang. 2) to improve professional expertise by learning from each other. further cooperation between China and Latin America will benefit regional peace and development in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America. China’s cooperation with Latin America in military and security fields is not targeting any third party and it is hardly a secret issue.-Latin American relations. China’s relations with Latin America are for economic purposes.chinausfocus. so there is no need for it to challenge American influence. As a result. 3) never target any third party. It has no enthusiasm for getting entangled in the problems of U. both should cooperate to promote South-South collaboration. In the age of globalization.S.¶ Second. openly set aside one section to deal with the issue.S.¶ Third. it is wellknown that Latin America has been implementing reforms and opening to the outside world for almost two decades. China is only one of the economic partners Latin America has been trying to cooperate with. and 4) never harm regional and hemispheric stability.S. As a matter of fact. These principles are not counter to U. both China and Latin America have been opening to the outside world.S. concerns are unnecessary and unfounded. as well as personnel exchanges.” Moreover. This outcome would certainly be welcomed by the United States. not for political outcomes to be used against the U.
" The report also tells the story of miners. Studies done 15 years later showed that the rejuvenated forest is virtually indistinguishable from its original form and 95 percent of the original animal species returned. who spent 39 years in the military. The Times report attributes much of the newly recognized.2NC AT MPX Turn—Amazon
No risk of offense—amazon will just regenerate WND 9
1/31/09 (World Net Daily. Because all these lands in the north." he says. finds it humorous that anyone would doubt the jungle's ability to recover. "only 10 percent of the Amazon has been converted to date from what was original forest to agriculture and settlement. The forests.com/index. http://www. Once finished.wnd. believe me. 18 of them in the heart of the Amazon.
. pg. Brazilian Brigadier Gen. "That's very funny.view&pageId=87552) Moore explains that. Thaumaturgo Sotero Vaz. who in 1982 cleared a large tract of land in Western Brazil. in turn. "They don't know the Amazon. they hired scientists to reforest the territory. in the 20 years of warnings about deforestation. it's almost untouchable because of this great capacity of regeneration." he explains. spontaneous secondary growth to farmers who have moved from rural areas on the edges of the forests to settlements and cities. west. have reclaimed the land the farmers had once cleared.php?fa=PAGE.
it is important to manage their interaction in Latin America. At the bilateral level.chinausfocus. This continual dialogue can help interpret why the US government holds a positive attitude to China’s increasing ties with Latin America despite some very conservative and suspicious attitudes in the US.com/foreignpolicy/latin-americas-rising-status-in-the-sino-us-relationship/] June 23 //mtc In fact. Similar review was also given to President Obama’s visit to Mexico by arguing the trip was to focus on economic cooperation rather than drug issues. The most cited achievement about President Xi's visit to Mexico was that China agreed to resume imports of Mexican pork and to import tequila. Ultimately.¶ Although both countries are trying to avoid geopolitical competition. Latin American countries benefit from cooperation with the world’s two largest markets. The purpose of the dialogue is to enhance mutual trust and prevent miscalculations by interpreting their engagements with Latin America. both countries demonstrated their pragmatic spirit and economic-oriented approach during their recent engagements with Latin America.2NC AT MPX Turn—US China Relations
Squo bilateral talks prevent any misperceptions Haibin 13—Research Fellow @ Shanghai Institutes for International Studies
. This is a good posture considering that no Latin American country wants to choose side between the US and China. the United States and China have held several strategic dialogues on Latin American affairs since 2006. The US has showed its support to both China’s permanent observer status in the Organization of American States and China’s membership at the Inter-American Development Bank. “Latin America’s Rising Status in the Sino-US Relationship” *http://www.
logistics.S. consumers have bought massive quantities of cheap Chinese goods. Council on Foreign Relations. forces. moreover. This restraint will help reassure China that the United States does not want to threaten its security . it will soon be able to build a nuclear force that meets its requirements for deterrence. homeland. The same defensive advantages. Even if Chinese power were to greatly exceed U. the United States would still be able to maintain nuclear forces that could survive any Chinese attack and threaten massive damage in retaliation. for example.2NC AT MPX Turn—US China War
No US China war deterrence checks Glaser 11
(Charles. are virtually impossible because the United States and China are separated by the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean.
Economic interdependence checks Perry and Scowcroft ‘9
William (Michael and Barbara Berberian professor at Stanford University. These economic relationships should reduce the probability of a confrontation between China and Taiwan. Professor of PoliSci and International Affairs and Director of the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies @ George Washington University.) and Brent (resident trustee of the Forum for International Policy. which should in turn help ensure that the security dilemma stays moderate. And China should not find the United States’ massive conventional capabilities especially threatening. Large-scale conventional attack by China against the U. because the bulk of U. No foreseeable increase in China’s power would be large enough to overcome these twin advantages of defense for the United States. Similarly. and support lie across the Pacific. U. apply to China as well. The overall effect of these conditions is to greatly moderate the security dilemma.” 2009. The United States. Current international conditions should enable both the United States and China to protect their vital interests without posing large threats to each other. Economic interdependence provides an incentive to avoid military conflict and nuclear confrontation. across which it would be difficult to attack. meanwhile. as they did in
. “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” March/April Foreign Affairs) What does all this imply about the rise of China? At the broadest level. Although China is currently much weaker than the United States militarily. Both the United States and China will be able to maintain high levels of security now and through any potential rise of China to superpower status. Although the United States has expressed concern about the growing trade deficit with China. the economies of the two countries have become increasingly intertwined and interdependent.S. thereby facilitating cooperation. were such a confrontation to occur.and thus help head off a downward political spiral fueled by nuclear competition. China and the United States have generally supported each other. will have the option to forego responding to China’s modernization of its nuclear force. the news is good. and Beijing has lent huge amounts of money to the United States.) “US Nuclear Weapons Policy. and keep the United States and China from approaching the nuclear brink. This should help Washington and Beijing avoid truly strained geopolitical relations.S. Online. Nuclear weapons make it relatively easy for major powers to maintain highly effective deterrent forces. Taiwan and the mainland are increasingly bound in a reciprocal economic relationship. On other nuclear issues.S. power somewhere down the road.
Here.the six-party talks to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs. .
. the supportive Beijing-Washington relationship points toward potentially promising dialogues on larger strategic issues.
Answers to Affirmative Answers
and China jockeying for influence in a world where political power relations are changing. the competition may go beyond a race to Latin commodities and move into the realm of fighting for political influence. the
Chinese are not broadening their relations with the region in a way that directly competes with the United States. Latin America has the most to gain.
. namely Brazil.chinacenter.S.S. relations.S. Brazil already has clearly stated its concerns regarding Chinese influence. www. this region could be the symbolic battle that best measures the continued hegemony of the U. but that they must be participants—the aff is an attempt to crowd them out Cerna 2011
(Michael [graduate student in International Policy Management at Kennesaw State University]. Brazil cementing itself as a prominent world player and the U. With the global ambitions of Latin America. but China’s actions and increasing integration into the region tell us that such a scenario may one day arise. despite this tension. still recovering from a terrible financial crisis – this dynamic relationship is one that deserves close attention from all those concerned with the future of China-U.¶ With both the U. Yet. Brazil is now too
reliant on China to turn away from the path on which Lula set the country. versus China.S.
President Barack Obama recently signed an agreement with Brazil’s Petrobras that will allow the oil company to drill in the Gulf of Mexico.AT: China will replace the US
Our argument isn’t that China needs to replace the US in the region. including oil. This symbolic move could cause tensions to increase as the world’s two largest oil consumers battle over rights to Brazilian oil. Agricultural exports to China are crucial to Brazil’s economy.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-s-and-chinesepresence-in-the-region/. influence and found China. Lula’s Brazil supported China politically and made clear moves away from the United States. kdf)
As it stands.S. it is essential to maintain close ties with both the United States and
Where Brazil and the rest of Latin America were once looking for an alternative to U. With all three major actors going through stages that could influence the global economic and political landscape – China implementing its 12th five-year plan. Now Rouseff’s administration has welcomed Barack Obama with open arms. U.S. In that regard. The
primary concern for the region is that it does not become a battle ground for a neo-Cold War between China and the U. to strike a balance with growing Chinese influence. Given the proximity and importance of Latin America to the United States. the region may now be looking to the U.S. It is odd to think that the United States would need to compete for hemispheric dominance with a country on the other side of the globe.S. The world will be watching. China's Growing Presence in Latin America: Implications for US and Chinese Presence in the Region. Apr 15. China is strictly concerned with commodities.
S. This was announced on the occasion of China replacing the U.-China-Latin America triangle on the economic. Bolivian president Evo Morales swiftly took the opportunity to throw the Bolivian branch of USAID out of his country in retaliation. But the ill-judged choice of words may call for a reassessment of North America's attitude towards its southern neighbors — and no more so than in
the energy sphere. crude imports. as Brazil's largest trading partner.AT: Sphere of Influence Theory wrong
Their evidence is about the Monroe Doctrine. political and social planes. not the US Wallwork 2013
(Lucy [graduate of Durham University and currently works as a research associate at Berlin-based OpenOil]. symbols of
increasingly cozy Sino-Latin American relations that shift the balance of power on the continent.com/briefs/exclusive/what_does_chinese_investment_us_energy.UdMpS_nviSo . and indeed accelerated.S. ¶ In
2009. What Chinese investment in Latin America means for the US energy sector. But since then the trend has continued. The impact of these shifting dynamics influences the U. sphere of influence.S. Secretary of State John Kerry who came under fire for referring to Latin America as the nation's "backyard" at a Senate committee hearing.S. taking priority over other global players. we can concede that it is wrong and still win—our argument is about Chinese influence in the region. each month is marked by reports of another high-level visit between South American and Chinese leaders to conclude trade and investment deals. as China continues to seek a foothold in the continent's vast natural resources (the second-largest reserves on the planet after the Middle East). which understands Latin America as falling within the U. but there are also concrete implications for sourcing of American fuel imports. ¶ For anyone watching the South American region. But last month it was U.S. The Economist officially declared the death of almost two centuries of the Monroe Doctrine.multibriefs. kdf)
The NIMBY ("not in my back yard") attitude is usually thought of as a curiously British phenomenon. where the rise of China as an increasingly dominant trading partner with Latin America's resource-rich nations is already having a visible impact on U. www.
. The implications of this for America's role as power
broker in the region and for future political leverage causes obvious nerves in Washington.html#.
Setting aside several notable exceptions. kdf)
[*86] In the final analysis. Taiwan. but for the moment. the plan forces it to be involved Erikson and Chen 2007
(Daniel P. [Senior Associate for US policy @ Inter-American Dialogue] and Janice [joint-degree candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and Georgetown University Law Center]. China. it is largely a settled matter. The
United States may become a more vigorous voice in advising the Central American and Caribbean countries how to address this issue. External factors. World Aff.AT: Taiwan Turn. 31 Fletcher F.
. and the dynamism of Taiwan's foreign policy.US already involved
The U.S. has maintained distance in the battle of Latin America by China and Taiwan. will all shape how individual countries in the region respond to the range of economic incentives and coercive tactics that they will face. For most of the region. the fact remains that most small countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have never been particularly good at manipulating larger powers to get the best possible deal for their own interests. including China's future growth trajectory. it has opted to refrain from clearly choosing sides. the nations at the center of this diplomatic endgame will almost certainly face choppy waters ahead. the evolving nature of the China-Taiwan relationship. and the Battle for Latin America. 69. the choice between China and Taiwan will remain a highly charged foreign policy decision for a narrow swathe of vulnerable Latin American countries for many years to come. however. with China by far the victor. In confronting the competing crosswinds from China and Taiwan. however.
It is considered to have achieved an economic miracle.bbc. China is Taipei's number one export market.AT: Taiwan Turn-No Internal Link
Their impact has no uniqueness BBC 7/2 (Taiwan profile. Taiwan and China enjoy healthy trade links.¶ And past tensions notwithstanding. Repeated attempts to regain representation at the UN have been blocked.Pacific. kdf)
Diplomatic isolation China insists that nations cannot have official relations with both China and Taiwan.co. becoming one of the world's top producers of computer technology. with the result that
Taiwan has formal diplomatic ties with only two dozen countries .¶ Despite
its diplomatic isolation. Taiwan has become one of Asia's big traders.¶ Taiwan has no seat at the United Nations.uk/news/world-asia-16164639.
. Latin American and African states in the main. having lost it to China in 1971. www.
holding sovereign debt worth 25 per cent of the nation’s GDP.Aff—UQ—China Engagement Decreasing
China losing economic influence in Latin America Tulchin 13
Joseph. Almost none of the megadeals announced with great fanfare with Venezuela. with loans from China in return for the sale of large amounts of oil.¶ As the Chinese economy slows. Ecuador. including a bullet train linking the city of Buenos Aires with the interior capitals of Rosario and Cordoba. Bolivia.¶ Failure to complete so many large infrastructure projects in Venezuela. where enormous quantities of grain was bought on favourable terms on the condition that the Brazilian market would be open to Chinese manufactured goods. Bolivia. This has put significant downward pressure on the international price of commodities as diverse as soy and oil.¶ A senior official in the Argentine ministry of commerce suggested in a recent interview that the Argentine government had ‘lost its enthusiasm’ for deals with the Chinese.¶ This disillusionment with China complicates matters for the nations of Latin America. have fallen over the past two years.
. But the project was never started. with Brazil’s domestic manufacturing sector demanding greater protection from Chinese competition.¶ The result is less money for governments. Argentina and Peru has also fuelled growing disillusionment with China. which rely on commodity export windfalls to pay for their social programmes.¶ Only Ecuador has benefited.¶ China’s deal with Brazil.¶ The Argentines saw China as an easy way to re-establish their position in world affairs during the 2003-2007 government of the late President Nestor Kirchner. became complicated as they ran into political problems. and other countries has materialised. The downside for Ecuador is that China has become Ecuador’s principal creditor. however. infrastructure. “China’s appeal in Latin America weakens” *http://www. such as Venezuela and Argentina.¶ The project to replace the subway cars in Buenos Aires was accomplished only as a straight market deal. was in South America involving Chinese direct investment in the exploitation of oil.¶ But China has fallen out of favour in the last few years.¶ Argentina is the most striking example of disillusionment with China. with no discounts and no loans. it buys less. particularly as prices of commodities on the international market have levelled off and some.info/content/chinasappeal-latin-america-weakens] June 4 //mtc The important market for China. and in the exchange of manufactured goods or loans on favourable terms for commodities. It is forcing countries to rethink their strategic plans and to re-engage with the United States and European countries. including copper.¶ Politically significant infrastructure projects were negotiated with the Chinese. husband of the current President Cristina Kirchner.worldreview.
bloomberg. specific. Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar said.” citing a doubling of the period for which entry visas are valid and efforts to expand trade ties further. practical barriers to trade and investment.” Biden said in Port of Spain. “Biden Circles Xi as U. Duels China for Latin America Ties” [http://www.¶ “Our country is deeply invested and wants to be more deeply invested in the region. which began May 26 in Colombia. without giving more details. economic growth and security with 15 Caribbean leaders in Trinidad yesterday.S. The leaders signed an accord to boost investment and economic cooperation. but growth that reaches everyone.html] May 29 //mtc Biden’s tour. Biden said a one-year-old free-trade agreement between the two countries is “just the beginning.com/news/2013-05-29/biden-circles-xi-as-u-s-duels-china-for-latin-americainfluence. Yesterday’s accord “will give us all a vehicle to overcome special.
.”¶ In Colombia. Our goal is not simply growth. included a “frank” and at times “brutal” discussion about trade.Aff—UQ—US Engagement Increasing
The administration is increasing Latin American economic engagement in the squo Goodman 13
.S. Latin American countries benefit from cooperation with the world’s two largest markets. At the bilateral level. The purpose of the dialogue is to enhance mutual trust and prevent miscalculations by interpreting their engagements with Latin America. The most cited achievement about President Xi's visit to Mexico was that China agreed to resume imports of Mexican pork and to
Now. China/US Focus.chinausfocus." http://www. both sides have some arguments to dilute each other’s influence globally. This continual dialogue can help interpret why the US government holds a positive attitude to China’s increasing ties with Latin America despite some very conservative and suspicious attitudes in the US. Also. Similar review was also given to President Obama’s visit to Mexico by arguing the trip was to focus on economic cooperation rather than drug issues. 6/23/13. One noteworthy argument from Chinese side is that China should enhance its
engagement with regions outside of Asia as the US pivot to the Asia Pacific attempts to contain China. However. Ultimately. it is important to manage their interaction in Latin America. & China aren’t competing over Latin America – current bilateral negotiations prove the plan won’t hurt relations Niu Haibin. It is natural for both world powers’ diplomatic agendas to intersect. it is necessary
to understand how this strengthening interest by the US and China in Latin America could impact the Sino-US relationship as well as Latin America as a whole.No Link: No Competition Over Latin America
The U. (research fellow w/ Shangai Institutes for International Studies). both
countries demonstrated their pragmatic spirit and economic-oriented approach during their recent engagements with Latin America. the United States and China have held several strategic dialogues on Latin American affairs since 2006. The US has showed its support to both China’s permanent observer status in the Organization of American States and China’s membership at the Inter-American Development Bank. This
is a good posture considering that no Latin American country wants to choose side between the US and China. This argument should be interpreted to explore the diplomatic space available for China as a global power rather than to counter US hegemony.¶ Although both countries are trying to avoid geopolitical competition. policy influence of such arguments is very limited.¶ In fact. From a geopolitical perspective.
"Latin America's Rising Status in the Sino-US Relationship. China needs to understand the recent intensive American engagement with Latin America by following the same logic.
the¶ power gap that exists between these countries is simply too important for Mexico to even¶ consider the possibility of balancing American power. the Mexican economy is more compatible with the American economy than with¶ that of the Chinese.S.6 percent of its total exports. and now sends that market 87.S.com/doi/pdf/10. Mexico has taken full advantage of its¶ proximity to the U.1080/01495930802679728 Everything seems to indicate that Mexico will remain a close ally of the U.¶ Moreover.S. 2009.—an¶ approval rating of 53 percent—a fact that would facilitate the continuation of an alliance with¶ Washington. the risks of doing so would be too high. "An end to US hegemony? The strategic implications of China's
growing presence in latin america.¶ opinion polls in Mexico indicate that the population has a positive image of the U. Indeed. After the creation of NAFTA. http://www. Washington would never allow for¶ the existence of a competitor that shares its borders.64 Finally.Link Defense: Mexico (Won’t Partner w/China)
Mexico is squarely in the US camp – it won’t accept Chinese influence Francisco De Santibanes.tandfonline." Comparative Strategy.65
2009. is a unique case because of the strategic importance of its oil.
.S. but without any serious attempt¶ to balance the U. Caracas might decide to stop selling oil to the U.S.tandfonline.66 Furthermore. "An end to US hegemony? The strategic implications of China's
growing presence in latin america. in a world in¶ which the provision of energy has become a major concern it is reasonable to think that¶ Washington would never permit an oil producer located so close to its own borders to ever¶ form an alliance with a strategic competitor.¶ one day. http://www. as Chavez does. in this way." Comparative Strategy. Venezuela. the¶ American economy. therefore.¶ for instance. that Venezuela¶ will not establish an alliance with China. Future governments might continue providing¶ rhetorical condemnation to Washington.Link Defense: Venezuela (Won’t Partner w/China)
Power asymmetry and relative proximity to the US means Venezuela will never be in the Chinese sphere of influence Francisco De Santibanes.com/doi/pdf/10. and hurt. Venezuela’s lack of a strong military makes the power¶ gap between these two countries enormous. It should be expected.1080/01495930802679728 As we move south in the continent things start becoming more complex. Doing that would imply the possibility that.
explaining that it is a good thing for Latin America." Tao said."¶ Tao Wenzhao.shtml#. told the Global Times that it is a coincidence that the two leaders chose to visit Latin America at a similar time.Aff—No Link—AT Zero Sum
Latin America influence not a zero sum game—both countries admit Global Times 13
“China.¶ "It's not like in the 19th century when countries divided their sphere of influence in a certain area. US not competing over Latin America: expert” [http://www.
. and that China has no intention to challenge US influence in the area.globaltimes. a fellow of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.UcTMEesTF-U] May 31//mtc Both the US and China deny they are competing with each other.cn/content/785721. China and the US' involvement in Latin America is not a zero-sum game. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hong Lei said last week that the two countries can "carry out cooperation in Latin America by giving play to their respective advantages.
chinadaily. Wang said
the General Assembly has adopted resolutions by an overwhelming majority for eighteen consecutive years on the necessity of ending the US embargo against Cuba which has been imposed since 1961.¶ "The international community is faced with multiple serious challenges of the financial. commercial and financial embargo against Cuba.cn/china/2010-10/27/content_11461619.com. thus continuing to inflict enormous economic and financial losses on Cuba. however.¶ Wang Min.¶ "Regrettably. kdf) UNITED NATIONS . which make the embargo and sanctions against Cuba all the more unreasonable.¶ A UN report shows that the "economic embargo against Cuba over the past year remained unchanged in substance.htm." he said. China's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations." said the ambassador.Cuba Aff.China on Tuesday urged the United States to terminate as soon as possible its economic."¶ "The
Chinese government urges the country concerned to terminate as soon as possible economic. those resolutions have not been effectively implemented over the years. food and energy crises as well as climate change. Oct 27.
www. commercial and financial embargo against Cuba imposed by the country concerned is yet to be lifted.AT: Link
China is in favor of the US ending the embargo Xinhua 2010 (China urges US to end embargo against Cuba. commercial and financial embargo against Cuba. and the economic." he said. made the appeal as he spoke at a UN General Assembly plenary meeting.
no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/26ff1a0cc3c0b6d5692c8afbc054aa d9.US limiting Chinese Influence now
The US is already crowding out China in Cuba/Venezuela Hilton 2013
(Isabel. and China have created¶ a mechanism for mutual transparency through the U. Although China¶ eventually voted in favour. In a striking acknowledgement of China’s¶ importance in the region. just¶ before then-President Hu Jintao’s visit to Washington.¶ has reacted calmly to date to China’s increasing presence¶ in Latin America.
.–¶ China Dialogue on Latin America.pdf.Venezuela and Cuba Aff.S. This started in 2006. Norwegian Peacebuilding Center.peacebuilding.S. China in Latin America: Hegemonic challenge. it did not otherwise back the¶ campaign. for instance. Feb. kdf) The United States. and¶ continues under the Obama administration.S. distracted elsewhere in recent years. Through four¶ rounds of dialogue to date. has conceded China’s¶ standing in Latin America.¶ China was reluctant to lend its
support. www. while seeking successfully to set¶ limits to China’s action in troublesome countries such as¶ Venezuela and Cuba. In 2006. when Venezuela¶ sought a chair on the United Nations Security Council. the U. the U.
Many of China's iron. sparing no one. the volume of critically important decisions that must be made. capital intensive commodities production is not very employment-intensive.¶ Chinese investment accentuates the deindustrialisation of Latin America. While the Chinese do not attach policy conditions to their loans. is being destroyed at a rate which translates to an area the size of Belgium. plants that could contain medicinal properties and cure disease. they have required that borrowers contract Chinese firms.¶ Producing natural resource-based commodities also brings major environmental risk. which supplies twenty percent of the planets oxygen as well as removing nearly the same amount of carbon dioxide. The Amazon rain forest. they cannot be ignored. because of the threats that these issues pose to humanity. soy and copper projects are found in Latin America's most environmentally sensitive areas. nor does it link well with other sectors of an economy. are being destroyed before scientists can evaluate their properties
. and made soon.org/timgatto/20080425/the_tipping_point_and_critical_mass_are_we_there_yet. one minute of fresh water discharge from the Amazon into the Atlantic could provide New York City with its entire water needs for sixty years. and not dealing with these problems is no longer an option. “Latin America playing a risky game by welcoming in the Chinese dragon” [http://www.co. In areas such as the Amazon and the Andean highlands. Large scale. being destroyed yearly. The facts are that issues. 4/25/8.Aff—MPX Turn—Amazon
China economic engagement creates unsustainable economic cycles and destroys the Amazon Ghallager 13
Kevin. conflict over natural resources. problems and crisis are merging together to make a perfect storm that will affect the entire human race. makes up twenty percent of the fresh water discharged into the oceans.uk/global-development/poverty-matters/2013/may/30/latin-america-riskychinese-dragon] May 30 //mtc But there are risks. Just what are these issues that are such a threat to mankind’s continued existence? While many people and governments attempt to remain blithely ignorant of the situation. The discharge of fresh water from the mouth of this largest of rivers. The habitat of plants that haven’t yet been discovered. buy Chinese equipment. and sometimes sign oil sale agreements that require nations to send oil to China in exchange for the loans instead of local currency. Just how many issues are facing “critical mass” while lingering at the “tipping point”? The way I see it. The Amazon rainforest which can be likened to the lungs of our planet can never be replaced. http://agonist. Dependence on commodities can cause a "resource curse" where the exchange rate appreciates such that exporters of manufacturing and services industries can't compete in world markets – and thus contribute to deindustrialisation and economic vulnerability. In fact. global climate change threatens to destroy upwards to half of all species of life on this planet.guardian. These issues threaten our very existence as a species. The irresponsible behavior of mankind towards the Earth is criminal in nature. While this may appear to be frightening to many.
The Amazon is reaching a tipping point – collapse causes extinction Gatto 8
Tim. property rights and sustainable livelihoods have been rife for decades. dwarfs any other period I have seen in my lifetime.
Once a species is gone from the Earth. there is no second chance.
. it is gone forever.and possible uses. In this regard.
Nevertheless.Aff—MPX Turn—US-China War
Strong China influence in Latin America causes US-China war Menéndez 13
Fernando.com/john-feffer/thenext-cold-war_b_178589. in order to ensure optimal conditions for domestic economic growth. the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan remain regional wars. For all their senseless violence. Similarly. As the U. Nevertheless. China still has a long way to go to displace U. Co-director of Foreign Policy in Focus. A confrontation between China and the United States. would necessarily be global.html. Let's hope that these two imperial boats passing in the night manage to negotiate an equitable distribution of global power with more aplomb than they showed earlier this month. http://www. political and military moves in East Asia may raise China’s cost of doing business in the Americas . “The Counterbalance in America’s Backyard” *http://www. as American investors find fewer opportunities. But the naval confrontation in the South China Sea could be the most dangerous indication of them all. ¶ So far the rise of China and its growing stature in Latin America has not upset the prevailing paradigm in the continent. It must have seemed that way to those who first saw Admiral Zheng’s fleet off the coastline.com/foreignpolicy/the-counterbalance-in-americas-backyard-2/] May 28 //mtc China’s foreign policy has long sought stable and positive relations with the U.S. the speed and enormity of China’s entry suggests a period of profound change and uncertainty.S.S.chinausfocus. however unlikely it might seem given the economic interdependence of the two countries.S. power and influence.huffingtonpost. perceived or actual ties between some Chinese companies and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will undoubtedly raise concerns from America’s national security apparatus. and especially if Latin American nations try to entangle China in regional tensions. 3/24/9. faces higher costs for raw materials. conflicts with the United States are likely. U. loses market share. Economic considerations often proved paramount to its foreign policy.
US-China war goes global – interdependence doesn’t check Feffer 9
John. as China projects itself in the Americas. avoiding tensions where possible.
Poverty: A Cause of War?.Aff—AT MPX—Econ
Dense economic linkages make conflict impossible Jervis 11 – Professor of Political Science @ Columbia
Robert. and sentiments of revenge.peacemagazine. The situations conductive to war involve political repression of dissidents. Some of the leading scholars in that field suggest that we drop the concept of causality. Professor of Economics. it is hard to see how without building on a preexisting high level of political conflict leaders and mass opinion would come to believe that their countries could prosper by impoverishing or even attacking others. undermine democracy and bring back old-fashioned beggar-my-neighbor economic policies. the security community could be dissolved if severe conflicts of interest were to arise. which could itself produce greater nationalism. Professor in the Department of Political Science and School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. December 2011. It is not so much that economic interdependence has proceeded to the point where it could not be reversed – states that were more internally interdependent than anything seen internationally have fought bloody civil wars. it is hard to believe that the conflicts could be great enough to lead the members of the community to contemplate fighting each other. Vol.org/v17n1p08. No. but that people will entertain the thought that they have to be solved by war? While a pessimist could note that this argument does not appear as outlandish as it did before the financial crisis. Desperately poor people in poor nations cannot organize wars. the poor become susceptible to the messages of war-bent demagogues and often willing to become cannon fodder. As we shall see. The statistics speak
.htm Library shelves are heavy with studies focused on the correlates and causes of war. Largely this is because of the traits of the poor as a group particularly their tendency to tolerate their suffering in silence and/or be deterred by the force of repressive regimes. it will not make war thinkable . an optimist could reply (correctly. because of their illiteracy and ignorance of worldly affairs. perhaps linked to a steep rise in nationalism. religious fervor. 4. in my view) that the very fact that we have seen such a sharp economic down-turn without anyone suggesting that force of arms is the solution shows that even if bad times bring about greater economic conflict. Rather it is that even if the more extreme versions of free trade and economic liberalism become discredited.” Survival. poverty has never been as significant a factor as one would imagine. tight control over media that stir up chauvinism and ethnic prejudices. The poor succumb to leaders who have the power to create such conditions for their own self-serving purposes. More likely would be a worsening of the current economic difficulties. Nevertheless. Also. While these dangers are real. Could the more peaceful world generate new interests that would bring the members of the community into sharp disputes? 45 A zero-sum sense of status would be one example. it may be helpful to look at the motives of war-prone political leaders and the ways they have gained and maintained power. http://archive. 403-425 Even if war is still seen as evil. Poverty: The Prime Causal Factor? Poverty is most often named as the prime causal factor. Is it possible that problems will not only become severe. “Force in Our Times. since it can rarely be demonstrated. Their voicelessness and powerlessness translate into passivity. even to the point of leading their nations to war. Therefore we approach the question by asking whether poverty is characteristic of the nations or groups that have engaged in wars.
Empirical studies show no causal relationship between economic decline and war Miller 1 – prof of economics
Morris Miller 2001. 25. which are exceptionally costly. p.
the ruling elites responded to crises by increasing repression (thereby using one form of violence to abort another). Wiley InterScience. For greed to yield war. Domestic Discord. and there has been little or no knowledge cumulation. and different data sets covering different time periods and different states" (Bennett and Nordstrom 2000. Politics and Policy. Scholars such as MacFie (1938) and Blainey (1988) have nevertheless questioned the validity of the diversionary thesis. To these problems. “The Effects of Economic Crisis.as measured in terms of inflation and negative growth . In the cases of dictatorships and semi-democracies. After studying 93 episodes of economic crisis in 22 countries in Latin American and Asia since World War II.. Consequently. as such. Associate Professor. Only affluent political leaders and elites can amass such weaponry.
.bore no relationship to the collapse of regimes . "Studies have used a variety of research designs. However. 39). Russett 1990). such as drug dealing. of Political Science @ University of Texas at El Paso. diverting funds to the military even when this runs contrary to the interests of the population. brigandry. Economic Crises? Some scholars have argued that it is not poverty.eloquently on this point. or (in democratic states. militarized disputes). and State Efficacy on the Decision to Initiate Interstate Conflict”. In the last 40 years the global arms trade has been about $1500 billion. Later analyses do not necessarily build on past studies and the discrepancies between inquiries are often difficult to unravel. but rather some catalyst. By a lack of theoretical precision. Since ODA does not finance arms purchases (except insofar as money that is not spent by a government on aidfinanced roads is available for other purposes such as military procurement) financing is also required to control the media and communicate with the populace to convince them to support the war. That is an amount roughly equal to the foreign capital they obtained through official development aid (ODA). they concluded that much of the conventional thinking about the political impact of economic crisis is wrong: "The severity of economic crisis . Pages 774-809. In most inter-state wars the antagonists were wealthy enough to build up their armaments and propagandize or repress to gain acceptance for their policies. Dept. we should add a lack of theoretical precision and incomplete model specification. they offer a step in the right direction but do not provide robust cross-national explanations and tests of economic growth and interstate conflict. different dependent variables (uses of force.. this perspective is rarely formulated as a cohesive and comprehensive theory. major uses of force.. December 7. extant studies are to a degree incommensurate. different estimation techniques. As noted by Levy (1989). of which two-thirds were the purchases of developing countries. Issue 4. Volume 35. The reliance on illicit operations is well documented in a recent World Bank report that studied 47 civil wars that took place between 1960 and 1999. rarely) to an outbreak of violence. the main conclusion of which is that the key factor is the availability of commodities to plunder. diamond smuggling. such as an economic crisis."
Royal is a noob—studies all vote neg Boehmer 7 – associate prof of poly sci @ UT-El Paso
Charles Boehmer. that contributes to the support for armed conflict. Large-scale armed conflict is so expensive that governments must resort to exceptional sources. there must be financial opportunities. 2007. or deal-making with other countries.. a study by Minxin Pei and Ariel Adesnik shows that this hypothesis lacks merit. I am referring to the linkages between economic conditions and domestic strife that remain unclear in some studies (Miller 1995.
foreignaffairs. where his research focuses on
China’s economic development and its impact on Asia and the global economy. the Chinese system relies heavily on migrant workers. These instances of unrest -. Beijing's tax system is also economically divisive.focusing on investment and exports. where only one-third of the country's population lived. senior associate in the Carnegie Asia Program. A growing. The geographical imbalance set off an unusually sharp disparity in regional income. at 0. the economic system has led to almost intractable disputes over a finite resource -. Beijing's distinct economic management style has created vast inequality. everyone was poor. but that money simply does not get budgeted out for social programs . When he launched his program of economic reforms in the late 1970s. The coast thrived.47. And third. half of all public expenditure went to those areas. and to the harsh working conditions for migrant laborers in factories such as the electronics manufacturing firm Foxconn. which was the subject of a globally publicized inspection just last month. These problems reflect the failure of Beijing's reform agenda in recent years. Responsibility cascaded down to the local levels. But in China. Before liberalization in the 1970s. newly socially conscious middle class has taken to the streets to decry the government's response to the 2008 tainted milk scandal. and therefore all the more likely to protest. But he concentrated production and state resources along the coast.land. “The Challenge for China's New Leaders”. was a low 0.com/articles/137316/yukon-huang/the-challenge-forchinas-new-leaders?page=2#)CD) Recently. In just three decades. to the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. At first. Beijing's revenues have been rising steadily. That it was not is all the more surprising. who are stripped of many rights and protections. such services were seen as the writ of the central government. Today. the rapid change has been astounding. (http://www. he modeled it on the growth strategies the other Asian tigers had used to so much success -. For one.25 -. Meanwhile.expose a growing discontent with three fundamental facets of China's modern rise. those in rural areas lost their access to health services and guaranteed minimum incomes. There were plans to strengthen the fiscal system to address social equality and distribution imbalances during a time of rapid growth. revenue collection is normally geared toward redistribution. while the vast western majority of the country lagged. Inequality could have been manageable. for example) make
. In a communist system. as measured by the Gini coefficient. as South Korea showed with its efforts to ensure the same quality of social services in rural and better-off urban areas during its industrialization. Second. those who took the initiative found themselves wealthy beyond what they could have imagined in the 1970s. but funding did not follow. however. At first. Rigid controls over the use of key resources such as land and labor have created distortions that exacerbate social tensions.then. And this leaves a question for the next generation of leaders to be ordained later this year: Are they willing to tackle the many vested interests that have impeded change thus far and set China on a sustainable path into the future? Deng might have avoided this outcome. Although that figure is in line with Singapore and Malaysia (and lower than those of Thailand and many Latin American countries). given Beijing's preoccupation with supporting infrastructure to keep growth rates high. income inequality. Haung 2012 (Yukon.and they are but a few of many -. as the protections traditionally provided by state farms and cooperatives dried up. but Beijing's weak finances (the share of revenues to GDP fell to just 12 percent by the mid-1990s) made major redistribution efforts untenable. given the egalitarian origins of China's communist state. the figure was closer to two-thirds.AT: Chinese Energy Security
1: Multiple domestic divisions makes CCP instability inevitable. There was a real failure to moderate disparity through social services. but by the mid-1980s.. talk of a political transformation in Beijing is showing signs of renewal. This was not for lack of money. consumption-based indirect taxes (sales and VAT taxes. China's coefficient is relatively high.
and a village representative died while in custody. which would have pushed expenditures on education. The officials underpay them and then charge market premiums to developers. For rural families to relocate. In doing so. but not as bad as back in the villages. For migrants.as such enterprises around the world typically do -. because the poor use a larger share of their personal income for consumption. Local officials typically pressure villagers and urban property owners to sell their land. but most households earn below the threshold that makes them eligible to pay such taxes. health. Beijing reinforced the popular perception that it is a potential savior against the abuses of corrupt local officials. Because this process is prone to rentseeking. Chinese state-owned enterprises do not pay significant dividends back to the government. too. who conceded to villagers' demands to organize more representative elections and review the land transfers. it could have increased spending on social programs by least onequarter to one-third. Improving the transparency of land sales would go a long way toward alleviating Chinese anger about regional inequality. China does have income taxes. which in principle can be designed to target the better off. while local leaders are blamed for whatever goes wrong in citizens' daily lives. however. Of course. pocketing the difference for their own needs -. Beijing's worries over regional protests will likely prove overblown. But if poor people were able to pick up and seek fortunes elsewhere. as it sometimes is. will eventually face the same forces. The locals then appealed to senior provincial and national officials. so they did not qualify for health insurance or for better-paying jobs. The details are all too familiar: Under pressure from local officials. As their profits soared in the last decade. indirect taxes exacerbate inequality.mostly to well-connected developers. fair compensation to rural landowners would help facilitate more internal migration. the deprivations did not seem important. Thus. Now in the cities -. Yet the country is a unique case. That is because the target of most protesters -. And the wealthy often find ways to avoid their obligations altogether. would-be migrants are reluctant to give up rights that have been in the family for generations to go in search of better opportunities. For one. opening a pressure valve of sorts. the capital's senior leaders are still perceived as having the people's best interests at heart. Although the rural areas are the poorest. from South Korea to Chile. Far from being redistributive.many of them for good -. The vast earnings of state-owned enterprises are a major untapped source of revenue that could go toward funding social programs. any moves to change the business codes were quickly forestalled.up the dominant share of revenues. a fishing village in Guangdong province. since most migrants saw their stint in the cities as temporary.whether migrant workers or villagers -. optimistic that they could find work that paid well.is local businesses and officials. they have turned to selling off land rights -. village land was transferred to developers for nominal prices. and local authorities over disputed land sales is a noteworthy example. so did their clout within the political system.whether that be balancing government budgets or self-enrichment. Local police arrested many of the protesters. Initially. for
. the ability to migrate would not solve the entire inequality problem
. as wages and the availability of social services in the interior did not keep up with the coast. no group feels the government's inability to provide social services more than the 250 million Chinese workers who have migrated to the megacities. Since citizens cannot depend on Beijing or the benefits that flow from a sound tax system. Indeed. When villagers discovered what had happened.each year Beijing would have collected revenues equivalent to two or three percent of GDP. Over time. That group is made up of a steady stream of people who left their rural homes beginning in the early years of Deng's reforms. Chinese would be less conflicted about a political and economic system that seems to lock rural residents into poverty. and social welfare closer to the international norm. they took to the streets. Its decentralized political management style and strong regional differences in attitudes and customs have fostered a sharp distinction between how most Chinese view local authorities and how they view those in Beijing. In China today.migrants have started demanding more compensation and more rights. But they were never granted formal residency rights (hukou). Consider that if state-owned
enterprises had made dividend payments of 30-50 percent of earnings to the government -. and the small amounts the firms paid out in dividends were not channeled into the state budget but into other loss-making state enterprises. Without cash. With those funds. life in the cities without hukou was bad. But unlike in other countries. The conflict between the residents of Wukan. it underpins much of the buildup in Chinese mistrust of local governments over the past decade. But the central government itself is under little pressure to make fundamental changes.and it has proved true in many countries. they need to be able to liquidate their land assets. Accordingly. The claim that economic liberalization begets political liberalization is an old one -. what was seen as temporary became permanent. China.
Real systemic change would be a long and slow process. Gilley. a mere shift in public preferences that prods the regime to change. “Is China Stuck?” January. but more likely as the result of a sudden crisis" (p. but not as a regime-initiated strategy undertaken at its own choosing. vary in urgency: There are crises and there are crises. the next generation of senior leaders taking office this year must find a way to move on political liberalization that meets popular aspirations but is acceptable within the party system. very bumpy. project muse) Yet what if the CCP is actually quite responsive? What if it is in tune with popular demands. When a country is growing so fast. Journal of Democracy.better or worse.14) as one thing that would prod the regime to change. Such a crisis will not require democracy to rise upon the ashes of a razed public square. after all. If so. He cites "rising public dissatisfaction" (p. 2: No impact—any transition will be stable. but rather will stir the regime to recognize that its time has come. Despite China's impressive economic achievements. authorities have been reluctant to provide more responsive outlets for voicing complaints. when a number of such experiments flourished. and so far. The crisis of which Pei speaks seems to be of the more benign sort. 2007 (Bruce Gilley. 44). "A democratic opening may emerge in the end. Perhaps the word crisis is being used in two different senses here. One crisis and another can. it can only kick change down the road for so long before the ride gets very. and finds ways to move and adapt as those demands change? In other words. what if the party stays or goes because of [End Page 173] popular pressures? Pei himself recognizes this possibility. and to do the right thing by going fairly gentle into that good night. then the prospects for a relatively smooth democratic transition in China are bright and no collapse is likely . They have also been less accommodating of village-level governance experimentation as they were a decade ago.
. local problems beget local reform.
Latin American states might one day be able¶ to initiate conﬂicts with their neighbors without having to worry about the restrictions the¶ American hegemon imposes on them.tandfonline. are making this scenario¶ more possible than ever before. the¶ gap in military and economic resources between these two nations is still enormous." Comparative Strategy. if
the present rates¶ of economic growth continue. 2009. even more if we consider the military ¶ aspect of power. and China might get involved in a conﬂict for the control¶ of Latin America. could take decades. "An end to US hegemony? The strategic implications of China's
growing presence in latin america. The path to end the ¶ American hegemony would. Indeed. in which the U. however. But to¶ modify the status quo in the region the Chinese would not need to reach a similar level of¶ power to the one Americans enjoy there today. America will ¶ remain the hegemon. and¶ the American disregard for what is happening there. be a simpler one. In fact. and as long as¶ it continuously
by winning just a couple of allies China might change this. on the one hand. on the other. With¶ growing resources from their Asian partner.S. http://www.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01495930802679728 In the years to come the U.SoI Bad: US/China Conflict
A rising sphere of influence risks conflict – the US should crowd out China before it can build a significant presence in Latin America Francisco De Santibanes. retains an even greater advantage. such a scenario.S. China’s expanding links with the region. But
.¶ The amount of power the United States needs to remain the hegemon in the Western¶ Hemisphere—and not just the most powerful state there—is enormous.
represents a major potential threat to the security of these states and no other world power shows the willingness or capacity to challenge this reality. This assertion might sound audacious at ﬁrst. After all.
In addition. and China making gains in the region in different sectors. which implies that. If China becomes a preferred partner in Latin America. providing Latin America with a quasi-world power as an alternative to the U.S.US decline in LA -> decline in hege
If China replaces the US in Latin America hege will collapse Cerna 2011
(Michael [graduate student in International Policy Management at Kennesaw State University]. China's Growing Presence in Latin America: Implications for US and Chinese Presence in the Region. trade in the region. one that is arguably anchored by China .S. These fears may be economically based.S.S. The
idea was to set up a new exchange rate mechanism that would bypass the U. influence presents a major problem. but that is not necessarily a bad thing. dollar as the reserve currency of the world. banks of the five BRICS nations agreed to establish mutual credit lines in their local currencies. Since the Monroe Doctrine.S. One proposal to emerge from the summit of the five nations (Brazil. is much more diversified than China at the moment and therefore does not need to enter into direct competition. Russia and South Africa) was a broad-based international reserve currency system providing stability and certainty. not in U. Latin America has been considered a secure sphere of influence for the U.chinacenter.S. it will show that U. The U. it sets a clear example of a possible shift in power away from the U. While the chances of such a proposal gaining support are debatable. However.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-s-and-chinesepresence-in-the-region/. as China responds to calls from Brazil and diversifies its
investments. currency. in fact. Apr 15. trade with Latin America is not a zero-sum game. China
presents an alternative to the United States. there is seemingly room for each side to grow.S.S.S.S. there is increasing worry that China is going to outmatch U. but there are potentially harmful political consequences – primarily. www. India. China.
. The third BRICS summit in April provided more insight into the
potential consequences of China’s growing place in Latin America via its relations with Brazil. dominance around the globe also is at risk. kdf) With both the U. and toward a more global organization. The fact that China presents a less democratic alternative to U.
. Taiwan. China. students. and there are concerns about the PRC using Cuba as a listening post to monitor developments in the United States. Beijing has already attempted to sell arms to Venezuela.
While for the most part Washington does not see Chinese economic penetration of Latin America as inherently antithetical to American interests. kdf) The United States has been reflexively wary of any potential Chinese incursions into a region that it has long considered its domain. 31 Fletcher F. World Aff. n40 the Chinese government also reportedly conducts intelligence activities in Latin America through visitors. 69. The deployment of Chinese peacekeepers in Haiti--the first in the Western Hemisphere--has particularly inflamed these anxieties.Chinese Influence Bad
Chinese influence in the region leads to instability Erikson and Chen 2007
(Daniel P. Few can doubt that China's capacity for mischief in the Americas has greatly increased over the past several years. [Senior Associate for US policy @ Inter-American Dialogue] and Janice [joint-degree candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and Georgetown University Law Center]. and front companies. there is genuine concern
over how the accelerating interactions might lead to military or strategic cooperation at a later stage. and the Battle for Latin America.
after China joined the¶ World Trade Organization in 2001.China hurts LA
If China continues to flood Latin America it will hurt economies and destabilize the region Hilton 2013
(Isabel. which. Only Chile.S.¶ which has a near surplus on China trade. kdf) Latin American countries face trade imbalances: Chinese¶ products are flooding domestic markets to the detriment¶ of local manufacturers.
.peacebuilding. More recently. market.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/26ff1a0cc3c0b6d5692c8afbc054aa d9. Honduras and El Salvador. which¶ is anxious to protect manufacturing in some of its poorest¶ neighbours.¶ in order to promote stability and maintain the U. Feb. China in Latin America: Hegemonic challenge.¶ In addition. Norwegian Peacebuilding Center. such as Guatemala. as China’s¶ currency has appreciated and labour costs have risen by an¶ annual 10%. stimulated the transfer to¶ China of Mexican electronics assembly plants (maquiladoras)¶ that served the U.¶ Central American nations suffered too. which runs a trade surplus. Nations such as Argentina. China enjoyed the competitive advantage of¶ price and local supply chains.pdf.-led “War¶ on Drugs”.S. are exceptions. Brazil and Colombia¶ – which has a 10:1 trade deficit with China – are also¶
exposed.¶ calculated in 2009 that 97% of Mexico’s
manufacturing¶ exports were threatened by Chinese competition. and Latin America is losing out¶ to Chinese competition in export markets. losing textile industries¶ to China. the Mexican position has begun to recover. of Boston University. and Peru. www.
This is of concern to the United States. Mexico is the outstanding example: Kevin Gallagher.
Two-thirds of the residents¶ have moved. Norwegian Peacebuilding Center.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.peacebuilding.S. over problems with community¶ relations. 150 kilometres east of¶ the Peruvian capital.
. a project it describes as “the¶ biggest privately-funded social project in Peru’s history”¶ (http://www. have felt obliged to insist to their electorates that¶ Chinese troops would never be allowed to set foot in their¶ countries. After buying the Canadian company¶ Corriente in 2010. on occasion. kdf) The environmental and ethical practices of Chinese companies¶ have drawn unfavourable comment.¶ low wages and dangerous working conditions.cfm?authorID=580). although the project has also been dogged by¶ complaints about inadequate housing and compensation.¶ One example of an attempt to meet those concerns is the¶ Chinese mining company Chinalco’s relocation of 5. Local labour¶ groups.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/26ff1a0cc3c0b6d5692c8afbc054aa d9. or local equivalents. Tongling and China Railway Construction¶ Corporation proposed an open-pit mine in the province of¶ Zamora Chinchipe in Ecuador. Chinalco is investing $50 million in¶ an entirely new town nearby. whether¶ large or small. state owned or private. Evo Morales. National protests followed¶ an agreement with the government. suffer from anti-¶ Chinese sentiment and the perception that they put profit¶ above environmental and social concerns. Feb.¶ killed Africans.2 million Toromocho¶ opencast copper mine.¶ Local
opinion surveys reveal that most companies.¶ and the Bolivian president.
The first major¶ Chinese mining company in the hemisphere was Shougang¶ Group. Ollanta Humala.000¶ residents of the town of Morococha. In several African¶ countries. It has¶ been the object of frequent strikes and protests. which began operations in Peru in 1992 with the¶ purchase of the state-owned Hierro Peru for 14 times an¶ independent valuation. political allies¶ of China.¶ Although
some dispute the claim that Chinese conduct is¶ worse than U. China suffers from¶ widespread negative perceptions and the identification of¶ Chinese companies with the Chinese state. www.China Bad for the environment
Chinese companies are especially bad to the environment in Latin America Hilton 2013
(Isabel. Lima. Shougang has contributed heavily¶ to the poor reputation of Chinese
fines for¶ environmental damage for the contamination of water supplies.¶ Other companies have experienced
companies. Advised by local managers¶ and PR consultants. Chinese security guards have been deployed¶ to defend
companies’ interests and have even.mil/pubs/¶ people. to remove them from an area¶ likely to be contaminated by the new $2. including a march¶ on the capital by the country’s most powerful Indigenous¶ movement. Both the Peruvian president. China in Latin America: Hegemonic challenge. Confederación de Nacionalidades Indígenas del¶ Ecuador (CONAIE). some
government officials and many indigenous and¶ social groups in the region make little distinction between¶ private Chinese companies and state-owned enterprises.pdf.
¶ the traditional Latin American allies of the U. key decision-makers have¶ not reacted.S.¶ China’s continue to affect its regional partners for the¶ foreseeable future.¶ In the context of the Obama administration’s “pivot” to Asia. there is potential¶ for increasing competition for influence in the future. backyard. both China and the U. At that point.S.S. www.Chinese Influence Bad-> Escalation
Latin America is a hot point for tensions in the US-Sino balance Hilton 2013
(Isabel.. and concerns about China’s¶ still modest military sales to the region.¶ however. there has been little response in senior policy¶ circles to the “China threat”.
. security community¶ about the potential implications of Chinese involvement in¶ Latin America in the future. Examples of these¶ sales include Venezuela’s 2010 purchase of 18 K-8 fighters¶ from China.S.S. and the latent.pdf. Feb. kdf) There are warnings within the U. An¶ escalation of tensions between China and U.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/26ff1a0cc3c0b6d5692c8afbc054aa d9.S.peacebuilding. Although this undoubtedly entails
presence in Latin America is unlikely to diminish¶ and will a¶ loss of U. Regardless of whether there¶ is any real “threat” to the U. influence in
the region. could face¶ some uncomfortable choices.S.¶ however.¶ have so far sought cooperation rather than confrontation. China in Latin America: Hegemonic challenge. Despite the concerns of the State
Department. long-term strategic competition¶ between China and the United States. Norwegian Peacebuilding Center. allies in the¶ South China or East China Sea could prompt China to raise¶ retaliatory tensions in the U.
Today.S. the costs of maintaining this position cannot be measured without considering the costs of losing it.tnr.
That guts hegemony Twining 2013
(Daniel [senior fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund]. China.1&passthru=ZDkyNzQzZTk3YWY3YzE0OWM5MGRiZmIwNGQwNDBiZmI&utm_source =Editors%20and%20Bloggers&utm_campaign=cbaee91d9d-Edit_and_Blogs&utm_medium=email)CD) If we are serious about this exercise in accounting. The Taiwan Linchpin. the extent to which Beijing's foreign policy is shaped by its desire to isolate Taiwan internationally is often overlooked. Policy Review No 177. Yet.S. it is easier for Washington to pursue constructive relations with Taipei. Meanwhile. goal of building new networks beyond the hub-and-spokes alliance model — including connecting allies with each other to create a more robust regional security architecture — would be enhanced by more intimate military and diplomatic
relations between Taipei and Tokyo. and its possible repercussions for U. mainly in Central America and the Caribbean. (http://www. The strategically significant "swing states" among them face growing pressures to abandon their longstanding relationships with Taiwan in favor of cementing diplomatic ties with China. as well as U. equities in supporting Taiwan’s autonomy while sustaining a fruitful relationship with Beijing. From an American perspective.S.S. 69. policymakers in the past few years.2AC Taiwan Turn
China will use Central America to isolate Taiwan.hoover. 31 Fletcher F. national interests. alliance cocoon into greater regional leadership remains a long-term American objective that Taiwan can help facilitate. and the Battle for Latin America. a fierce contest for diplomatic recognition and political influence is being fought between Taiwan and the PRC.org/publications/policy-review/article/139396. this crucial dimension of Chinese foreign policy is indispensable to a full understanding of China's rising influence in the global system. kdf)
Taiwan is an exceptional case given the unique nature of its identity and historical conflict with mainland China. Taiwan can help shape Japan’s identity in the 21st century in the same way that Japan shaped Taiwan’s in the 20th. “Not Fade Away The myth of American decline”. of course. and unduly dependent on the United States. Hoover Institution. have become ensnared in the cross-strait dispute. 2012. the same point applies from an American perspective: to
the extent that Taiwan has a wider set of friends and allies that assuage Taiwanese insecurities and offset its isolation. Some of the costs of reducing the American role in the world are. kdf)
While increasing economic
and political ties between China and Latin America have attracted significant attention from U. By encouraging Tokyo to assume broader regional security responsibilities. moreover. Nonetheless.S. is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy
at the Brookings Institution. Latin America has emerged as the crucial battleground where a dozen struggling nations. causing geopolitical strife Erikson and Chen 2007
(Daniel P. World Aff. Taiwan.¶ The U. What is it worth to Americans to live in a world dominated by democracies rather than by autocracies? But some of the potential costs could be measured. in some of the most remote corners of the world. policy of
this intensifying competition in their own backyard.
That causes multiple conflict escalation leading to global war Kagan 12(Robert. www. if anyone
. [Senior Associate for US policy @ Inter-American Dialogue] and Janice [joint-degree candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and Georgetown University Law Center].com/article/politics/magazine/99521/america-world-powerdeclinism?page=0. withdrawn. unquantifiable.S. the cross-Strait balance looks sturdier when Taiwan is strengthening relations with Japan and other important powers than when Taiwan is isolated. [*70] In particular. officials in Washington have yet to fully consider the possible implications for U. Pulling Japan out of its U.
PERHAPS THE GREATEST concern underlying the declinist mood at large in the country today is not really whether the United States can afford to continue playing its role in the world. If the decline of American military power produced an unraveling of the international economic order that American power has helped sustain. there would be measurable costs. can Americans do what needs to be done to compete effectively in the twenty-first-century world?
. As a simple matter of dollars and cents. Navy was no longer able to defend them.cared to try. You can save money by buying a used car without a warranty and without certain safety features. As many statesmen and commentators have asked.S. and lowers the price of the accidents that occur by reducing the chance of losing. if regional wars broke out among great powers because they were no longer constrained by the American superpower. it may be a lot cheaper to preserve the current level of American involvement in the world than to reduce it. if the generally free and open nature of the international system became less so—if all this came to pass. because the U. but what happens when you get into an accident? American military strength reduces the risk of accidents by deterring conflict. if American allies were attacked because the United States appeared unable to come to their defense. And it is not too far-fetched to imagine that these costs would be far greater than the savings gained by cutting the defense and foreign aid budgets by $100 billion a year. too. if trade routes and waterways ceased to be as secure. It is whether the Americans are capable of solving any of their most pressing economic and social problems. These savings need to be part of the
"SWING STATES"¶ Given the increasing weight of the Chinese economy in the global system overall. and the Battle for Latin America. The Taiwanese envoy in Managua at the time categorically rejected the proposal as unacceptable. the loss of even one of these key allies would represent a damaging reversal for Taiwan. The frequent use of the phrase "domino effect" vividly conveys the dread of a chain reaction that could severely cripple Taiwan's claim to sovereignty. Taiwan. losing an ally triggers a domino effect that ends their sovereignty Erikson and Chen 2007
. [Senior Associate for US policy @ Inter-American Dialogue] and Janice [joint-degree candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and Georgetown University Law Center]. n33 point to some rocky times ahead for the bilateral relationship. In July 2006. representatives of the left-wing Sandinista [*81] Front of National Liberation (FSLN) declared in the midst of a heated presidential election campaign that Sandinista frontrunner Daniel Ortega planned to establish formal ties with Beijing and downgrade the Taiwanese embassy to "trade representative" status if he triumphed at the polls. Ortega's presumably anti-American streak. n32
Nicaragua is a clear case in point. and President Chen attended Ortega's inauguration in January 2007. all of Taiwan's allies in the Western Hemisphere are under continually building pressures to formalize their budding ties with Beijing. Nicaraguan officials have been careful to assure Taipei that cooperation between the two countries will continue. Since Ortega's victory in November. At this juncture. However. 69.AT: Taiwan has other allies
Taiwan is at the brink. several among them stand out either as being especially susceptible to Beijing's overtures. coupled with the reality of the PRC's economic weight in the post-Cold War world. China. or for their heightened strategic importance. Still. it appears that Taipei may have to be prepared to make major concessions to maintain its increasingly tenuous links to Managua. World Aff. 31 Fletcher F.
China in Latin America: Hegemonic challenge.¶ this could change in the future.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/26ff1a0cc3c0b6d5692c8afbc054aa d9.–China rivalry¶ and potential confrontation over such issues as Taiwan.AT: No Conflict Now
Increased Chinese presence makes conflict more likely Hilton 2013
(Isabel.pdf. Norwegian Peacebuilding Center. should they choose to. against the background of U.
. kdf) China has not sought a strategic confrontation with the¶ United States in Latin America. interests. However.S. Feb. China’s¶ economic weight offers its Latin American partners a new¶ freedom to defy U. www. In the meantime.peacebuilding. as the USSR did in the Cold¶ War.S.
no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/26ff1a0cc3c0b6d5692c8afbc054aa d9. a free trade agreement. which states that diplomatic relations with the¶ PRC require a country to break official relations with the Republic of China (ROC) (Taiwan).
.¶ in China’s Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean¶ in 2008 (http://www.
as discussed. More than half of the countries in the world that still¶ recognise the ROC are in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Similar¶ packages are on offer. an investment of $74 million in a football stadium¶ in the capital and. in 2012.China forces break of ties with Taiwan
China uses Latin America as a unique instance to isolate Taiwan Hilton 2013
(Isabel. for example. Norwegian Peacebuilding Center.fmprc.
no doubt. Feb.gov.cn/eng/zxxx/t521025.¶ Costa Rica’s recognition of the PRC in 2007 was followed¶ by the Chinese purchase of US$300 million in Costa Rican¶ bonds.pdf. for other nations willing to¶ switch.¶ htm). China in Latin America: Hegemonic challenge.peacebuilding. www. kdf) One of China’s political objectives is to further the One-¶ China policy.
IR Theory Debate
South Africa and Republic of Congo. www. kdf)
Chinese President Xi
Jinping heads to Latin America and the Caribbean on Friday. as he leaves Brazil Friday.globaltimes. Tanzania. and that China has no intention to challenge US influence in the area." ¶ Tao Wenzhao. China and the US' involvement in Latin America is not a zero-sum game. told the Global Times that it
is a coincidence that the two leaders chose to visit Latin America at a similar time. a fellow of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.Sphere of Influence theory wrong Sphere of influence theory is no longer true Global Times-Agencies 5/31
(China." Tao said. in a state visit aiming at promoting China's cooperation with the region.cn/content/785721.¶ Xi's visit to Trinidad and Tobago. shortly after taking office in March. Costa Rica and Mexico follows his first foreign trip to
Russia and three countries in Africa.shtml#.UdIpN_nviSo. and said that the "competition between the world's two biggest economies for influence in Latin America is on display. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hong Lei said last week that the two countries can "carry out cooperation in Latin America by giving play to their respective advantages.
. explaining that it is a good
thing for Latin America. Some media reports
described "dueling visits" by Chinese and US leaders.¶ "It's not like in the 19th century when countries divided their sphere of influence in a certain area."¶ Both the US and China deny they
are competing with each other.¶ While Xi kicks off his visit. US not competing over Latin America: expert. US Vice President Joe Biden is concluding his Latin America visit on the same day.
and attention depends on credibility. Nye's view that soft power springs largely from individuals.
. is likely to step on his own message.foreignpolicy.1
soft-power triumphs. So the government has taken to promoting ancient cultural icons whom it thinks might have global appeal. have quickly turned stale. that is not about to happen soon . the Shanghai Expo was a great success. Jr. too. In today's world. As the Economist noted about China. Unfortunately. All countries can gain from finding each other attractive." But
soft power doesn't work that way. he. “What China and Russia Don’t Get
About Soft Power.com/articles/2013/04/29/what_china_and_russia_don_t_get_about_soft_po wer?page=0. is professor at Harvard and author of the new book Presidential Leadership and the Creation of the American Era. the private sector. Not long after the last international athletes had departed.¶ The development of soft power need not be a zero-sum game. April 29.” http://www. be self-critical.AT China Soft Power – Not Zero Sum/Decline Inevitable
Chinese soft power is not zero-sum with the US – plus other factors ensure its decline Joseph S. "the party has not bought into Mr. But for China and Russia to succeed. and unleash the full talents of their civil societies. China's domestic crackdown on human rights activists undercut its soft power gains. Again in 2009. there is little international audience for brittle propaganda. but it was followed by the jailing of Nobel Peace Laureate Liu Xiaobo
and screens were dominated by scenes of an empty chair at the Oslo ceremonies.¶ China
and Russia make the mistake of thinking that government is the main instrument of soft power.com. The best propaganda is not propaganda. and civil society. Government propaganda is rarely credible. Nye. For all the efforts to turn Xinhua and China Central Television into competitors to CNN and the BBC. they will need to match words and deeds in their policies. it highlights "a poverty of thought" among Chinese leaders. such as the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Putin might likewise count on a soft power boost from the Sochi Olympics. information is not
scarce but attention is. As Pang Zhongying of Renmin University put it. but if he continues to repress dissent. ForeignPolicy. 2013.
play key roles¶ in that dynamic.org/PublicationFiles/IAD8661_China_Triangular0424v2e-may. www.pdf. China¶ and Latin America are also important. These include India. when
the PRC ceased taking in that nation’s¶ exports of soy oil. With respect to Argentina.
2) Latin America is not a country Ellis 2012 (R. The United States. The importance¶ of those partners varies according to context (political¶ alliances versus economic partnerships versus military¶ sales. www.¶ such as Cuba and Nicaragua. The importance also varies according to which¶ Latin American country is doing the looking. weakening the PRC’s ability to¶ pressure the Argentine government. It also falsely assumes that Latin¶ America “as a whole” deals with the¶ United States and China. while both China and the United States are¶ important external referents for the region. Latin American¶ countries and actors
increasingly look toward the world in¶ terms of a plurality of actual and potential partners.Triangular Theory Wrong
The DA assumes triangular theory—it is bunk 1) Other actors than the US and China Ellis 2012 (R. May. Evan [associate professor with the William J. May. the importance of Russia as a¶ partner arguably rivals. Latin America and China: A Triangular Relationship. But this is not the¶ case. While the triangle does not exclude¶ these other actors per se. but referring to Latin America¶ as one leg in a triangular relationship¶ incorrectly assumes that actions by¶ the other legs—the United States and¶ China— impact Latin America as a¶ whole. Chinese money and its “anti-US” alliance¶ with Iran occupy roughly equal importance.org/PublicationFiles/IAD8661_China_Triangular0424v2e-may. For example.
played out in the Brazil-Russia-India-¶ China (BRICS) and India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) forums. varies dramatically. including¶ Russia. Indeed. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense
Studies]. the focus on the interaction among¶ China.” Venezuela’s reliance¶ on Russian arms. India stepped up its purchases. Iran and Europe.). that of China. it is¶ important to understand that Latin American nations themselves¶ generally do not define their external relations principally¶ in terms of a triangle involving the United States and¶ China.¶ In states that were Soviet clients during the Cold War. kdf) The triangle concept implies that it is valid to group together¶ the nations of Latin America with respect to their relationships¶ with the PRC and the United States. in the process.¶ While it is possible to discuss the¶ overall triangular set of interactions¶ at some level of abstraction. the United States and Latin America tends to conceal¶ how other states. etc. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense
Studies]. Evan [associate professor with the William J. India.¶ sometimes complementary balance in Brazil’s relationships¶ with India and China. helping¶ to save Argentina from a much more significant economic¶ problem and.
. Latin America can be physically grouped as a geographic region. the sometimes competing. and between each state¶ and the United States.thedialogue.¶ Russia. as well as non-state actors. although
much of¶ the foreign policy of the Chávez regime is defined in terms¶ of its opposition to US “imperialism. The United States. or exceeds. Similarly.¶ While
the triangle concept conceals other actors that play¶ a fundamental part of the dynamic in the hemisphere. Latin America and China: A Triangular Relationship.¶ is arguably as relevant to Brazil’s foreign policy as is its relationship¶ with the United States. kdf) The triangle concept downplays the importance of other¶ actors whose interaction with the United States.pdf. the nature of the relationship¶ between each state and the PRC. the European Union and Iran.thedialogue.
And though Central America may share the famous Mexican lament about being "so far from God. Taiwan. The
lack of diplomatic links has not prevented Taiwan from undertaking significant trade with Brazil. kdf)
[*72] Of course.AT: Mexico Not Important
Trade with Mexico is key to Taiwanese sovereignty Erikson and Chen 2007
(Daniel P. 31 Fletcher F. Official allies
also support Taiwan's repeated petitions to join international forums such as the World Health Organization and the UN. which are perennially squelched by China. a practice that has been dubbed "transit diplomacy. so close to the United States. in their respective capitals.S. China. the Taiwanese government believes that the ability to conduct relations with sovereign states on an equal basis is vital to the legitimacy of its own claim to sovereignty. 69. World Aff. Chile. this geographical happenstance makes the isthmus a particularly valuable region in which to retain a bloc of allies. [Senior Associate for US policy @ Inter-American Dialogue] and Janice [joint-degree candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and Georgetown University Law Center]. often disguised as nonprofit foundations or businesses." from Taiwan's point of view. Central America's proximity to the United States justifies Taiwanese officials' use of refueling stops in America to meet "unofficially" with U. and Mexico. even Latin American countries without official relationships with Taipei often try to maintain good "non-official" relations. which may include opening reciprocal missions. and the Battle for Latin America. policymakers while en route to official state visits in the south. However." n3
D. in conjunction with Chinese attendance¶ at the APEC summit in Santiago.AT: China CP
Chinese engagement in Latin America leads to political and economic instability in the region Ellis 2012 (R. because the
United States¶ is intimately tied to the region in geographical. www. such¶ as
Venezuela and Ecuador.¶ the resulting turmoil potentially spills over to the United¶ States. the US benefits: Latin America is able to purchase more US goods. human and¶ economic terms. sparked a¶ wave of political activity in the United States. or political tension sparked by¶ displaced manufacturing sectors in countries such as Brazil¶ and Mexico.pdf. The United States. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense
Studies]. May.org/PublicationFiles/IAD8661_China_Triangular0424v2e-may. The February 2011 announcement¶ Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos made to The¶ Financial Times concerning
Chinese plans to build a “dry¶ canal” across Colombia. Chile. Hu Jintao’s five-nation trip to Latin America¶ in November 2004. kdf) Chinese engagement with Latin America—economic. seemed timed to¶ influence US congressional approval of the USColombia¶ Trade Promotion Agreement. Latin America and China: A Triangular Relationship.19 for example. This included¶ not only public events by Washington. think tanks. Latin American
leaders¶ recognize the effect their China initiatives have within¶ the US
political system.thedialogue. to the extent that¶ Latin America’s exports to the PRC increase prosperity and¶ bolster development.C. To the extent that PRC activities in Latin¶ America inadvertently generate economic displacement¶ and sociopolitical problems among nations in the region. Indeed.21
.20¶ Chinese engagement with the region ultimately impacts¶ the United States in broader terms. Evan [associate professor with the William J.¶ but also hearings on Chinese engagement in Latin America¶ in both the US House of Representatives (April 2005) and¶ the US Senate (August 2005). or controversy over the entry of Chinese firms¶ into new extractive sectors such as agriculture in Brazil and¶ Argentina or mining in Peru. and Latin American migration¶ to the United States for economic reasons does not grow. Reciprocally. Examples could include future crises in countries¶ that become heavily dependent on Chinese loans.¶ military or otherwise—also impacts the United States at the¶