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Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nin kha 2011-2013

Thm nh u t Pht trin

p n Bi tp 1

Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright


Hc k H, nm 2012
Thm nh u t Cng

p n bi tp 1
Cu 1: Xc nh chi ph u t ti chnh
Tng chi ph u t 409,97 triu USD bao gm chi ph thc ca cc hng mc cng vi d
phng lm pht v li vay trong thi gian xy dng.
Tng chi ph u t 394,8 triu USD theo lch gii ngn thp hn con s 409,97 triu USD l
do cha bao gm d phng lm pht v li vay trong thi gian xy dng.
Cn c vo Ph lc 1, li vay trong thi gian xy dng ca khon vay ODA l: 0,20 triu
USD nm 2010 v 6,44 triu USD nm 2011. Cn c vo Ph lc 2, li vay trong thi gian
xy dng ca khon vay thng mi l 4,68 triu USD nm 2011. Vy, tng chi ph li vay
trong thi gian xy dng l 11,33 triu USD.
Lch gii ngn chi ph u t di y c tnh theo gi 2009. T l lm pht USD hng
nm l 0,8%. Do vy, mc d phng lm pht trong cc nm c tnh nh sau:

Chi ph u t (gi 2009)


D phng lm pht
Chi phi u t (danh ngha)

2009

2010

38,50

233,40

2011
122,90
2

0,00

233,40*0,8% = 1,87

122,90*[(1+0,8%) - 1] = 1,97

38,50

235,27

124,87

Vy, tng mc d phng lm pht bng: 1,87 + 1,97 = 3,84 triu USD.
Tng chi ph u t: 394,8 + 11,33 + 3,84 = 409,97 triu USD
Cu 2: Xy dng lch tr n
Vo nm 2010, d n u k bng 0 do trc cha c khon gii ngn no. Vo cui nm
2010, 57,6 triu USD c gii ngn. Theo nguyn tc, d n u k nm sau bng d n
cui k nm trc, ta c d n u k nm 2011 bng d n cui k 2010 v bng 57,6 triu
USD.
Trong nm 2011, d n phi chu li vay cho khon n 57,6 triu USD vi li sut 8,13%.
Theo nguyn tc, li vay phi tr cui k bng d n u k nhn vi li sut, ta c li vay
phi tr vo cui nm 2011 bng:
57,6 8,13% = 4,68 triu USD.
Tuy nhin, y l khon li trong thi gian xy dng v d n khng phi tr khon li ny.
Thay vo , li vay c nhp vo n gc.
Cng vo cui nm 2011, d n nhn tip 98,4 triu USD n vay gii ngn.

Theo nguyn tc, d n cui k bng d n u k cng gii ngn n, cng li vay nhp gc
v tr tr n gc, ta c d n cui nm 2011 bng:
57,6 + 98,4 + 4,68 0 = 160,68 triu USD
Theo nguyn tc ngn lu n vay trong k bng gii ngn n tr tr li vay, tr tr n gc, ta
c ngn lu nm 2011 bng:
98,4 0 0 = 98,4 triu USD
T nm 2012, d n khng nhn thm khon gii ngn no na v bt u phi tr li vay.
D n c n hn tr n gc trong 3 nm 2010-2012. T nm 2013 tr i, mi nm d n
phi tr u n gc trong vng 8 nm. Vy, n gc phi tr mi nm trong giai on 20132020 bng:
160,83 8 = 20,09 triu USD
Vo cui nm 2012, cng nh 2013, li vay phi tr bng:
160,83 8,13% = 13,06 triu USD
D n cui nm 2013 bng:
160,83 20,09 = 140,60 triu USD
Ngn lu n trong nm 2013 bng:
13,06 20,09 = 33,15 triu USD
Lm tng t cho cc nm sau, ta c c lch tr n nh bng di y.
Lch n vay thng mi (triu USD gi danh ngha)
D n
Gii
Tr li
Li vay
D n
Nm
u k
ngn
vay
nhp gc Tr n gc
cui k
2010
0
57.6
0
0
0
57.6
2011
57.6
98.4
0
4.68
0
160.68
2012
160.68
0
13.06
0
160.68
2013
160.68
0
13.06
20.09
140.60
2014
140.60
0
11.43
20.09
120.51
2015
120.51
0
9.8
20.09
100.43
2016
100.43
0
8.16
20.09
80.34
2017
80.34
0
6.53
20.09
60.26
2018
60.26
0
4.9
20.09
40.17
2019
40.17
0
3.27
20.09
20.09
2020
20.09
0
1.63
20.09
0
Lu rng n khi o hn, d n phi tr ht n, tc l d n cui nm 2020 bng 0.

Ngn
lu
57.60
98.40
-13.06
-33.15
-31.52
-29.88
-28.25
-26.62
-24.98
-23.35
-21.72

IRR ca ngn lu n vay c tnh theo phng trnh sau:


57,60

98,40
13,06
33,15
21,72

...
0
2
3
1 IRR (1 IRR )
(1 IRR )
(1 IRR )10

Nguyn Xun Thnh

IRR = 8,13%
IRR chnh l li sut ca khon vay thng mi. L do l ta xy dng lch tr n sao cho
d n phi thc tr (theo gi tr ti chnh) cho ngn hng theo li sut 8,13%; ngn hng
do vy phi nhn c mt sut sinh li (IRR) l 8,13%.
Cu 3: Ngn lu theo cc quan im khc nhau
Ngn lu d n c tnh da trn thng tin v chi ph u t (trong cu 1) v thng tin
trong bo co thu nhp ti Ph lc 3 ca NCTH.
Ngn lu rng d n theo quan im tng u t bng doanh thu (ngn lu vo) tr cc
khon ngn lu ra bao gm chi ph hot ng, tr ph qun l, tr thu TNDN, v tr chi
ph u t.
Lu rng ta khng tr khu hao (v khng phi l mt hng mc ngn lu) v khng tr
li vay (v ang tnh ngn lu theo quan im tng u t). Mt lu na l ta tnh ngn
lu ti chnh theo gi danh ngha v do vy chi ph u t l chi ph theo gi danh ngha
(tc l cng d phng lm pht ca nm tng ng, nhng khng cng li vay trong
thi gian xy dng v khng phi l ngn lu).
Ngn lu rng d n theo quan im tng u t (triu USD danh ngha)
Ngn lu vo
Nm

Doanh thu

Ngn lu ra
Chi ph hot
ng

Ph
qun l

Thu
TNDN

Chi ph
u t

Ngn lu
rng
d n

2009

38,50

-38,50

2010

235,27

-235,27

2011

124,87

-124,87

2012

400,37

306,04

6,83

0,00

87,50

2013

403,58

305,32

6,98

0,00

91,28

2014

406,80

340,58

6,05

0,00

60,17

2015

410,06

310,54

7,09

14,01

78,42

2016

413,34

323,76

6,82

12,08

70,68

2017

416,65

338,67

6,51

9,84

61,63

2018

419,98

333,75

6,79

12,41

67,03

2019

423,34

324,38

7,20

16,06

75,70

2020

426,73

336,51

6,97

14,51

68,74

2021

430,14

330,89

7,28

17,36

74,61

2022

433,58

333,06

7,35

17,91

75,26

-2023

437,05

348,13

7,04

15,35

66,53

2024

440,55

340,10

7,42

18,13

74,90

2025

444,07

342,05

7,50

18,50

76,02

2026

447,62

360,28

7,10

14,94

65,30

2027

451,20

351,89

7,49

17,83

73,99

2028

454,81

351,34

7,65

18,83

76,99

2029

458,45

367,48

7,31

15,79

67,87

2030

462,12

354,60

7,85

19,79

79,88

2031

465,82

360,67

7,81

19,21

78,13

Nguyn Xun Thnh

Ngn lu n vay tng hp bng tng ngn lu n vay ca hai khon vay ODA & thng
mi.
Ngn lu rng trn quan im ch u t bng ngn lu rng d n trn quan im tng
u t cng vi ngn lu n vay tng hp.
Ngn lu rng d n theo quan im tng u t (triu USD danh ngha)
Ngn lu n vay
Nm

Ngn lu rng
d n

2009

Ngn lu rng
ch u t

ODA

Thng
mi

Cng

-38,50

3,80

0,00

3.80

-34,70

2010

-235,27

116,20

57,60

173.80

-61,47

2011

-124,87

0,00

98,40

98.40

-26,47

2012

87,50

-6,79

-13,06

-19.85

67,65

2013

91,28

-13,12

-33,15

-46.27

45,01

2014

60,17

-12,78

-31,52

-44.30

15,87

2015

78,42

-12,44

-29,88

-42.32

36,10

2016

70,68

-18,43

-28,25

-46.68

23,99

2017

61,63

-17,76

-26,62

-44.38

17,26

2018

67,03

-17,08

-24,98

-42.06

24,98

2019

75,70

-16,40

-23,35

-39.75

35,94

2020

68,74

-22,05

-21,72

-43.77

24,96

2021

74,61

-21,03

-21.03

53,58

2022

75,26

-20,02

-20.02

55,24

-2023

66,53

66,54

2024

74,90

74,89

2025

76,02

76,01

2026

65,30

65,31

2027

73,99

73,99

2028

76,99

76,99

2029

67,87

67,86

2030

79,88

79,88

2031

78,13

78,12

Ngn lu ca ngn sch bao gm ngn lu ca DNNN (l mt ch u t ca d n) v


thu (thu TNDN v VAT).
i vi DNNN gp vn u t vo d n (chim 5% tng vn ch s hu), ngn lu
ngn sch (bao gm ngn lu ra l chi ph u t ban u v ngn lu vo l ngn lu t
do ca ch u t sau khi tr n) bng 5% ngn lu rng theo quan im ch u t (
tnh trn).
Thu TNDN l ngn lu vo theo quan im ngn sch ( tch trong Ph lc 3).
Ta gi nh d n phc v cho nhu cu s dng in tng thm v khng c tc ng thay
th cc ngun in hin hu. Do vy, VAT nh vo lng in sn xut ra l ngun thu
ngn sch tng thm. Thu VAT bng 5% gi tr in do d n bn ra.
Nguyn Xun Thnh

Ngn lu rng theo quan im ngn sch (triu USD danh ngha)
Nm
2009

Ch u t
DNNN
-1,74

Thu
TNDN
0,00

Thu GTGT
(VAT)
0,00

Ngn lu rng
ngn sch
-1,74

2010

-3,07

0,00

0,00

-3,07

2011

-1,32

0,00

0,00

-1,32

2012

3,38

0,00

20,02

23,40

2013

2,25

0,00

20,18

22,43

2014

0,79

0,00

20,34

21,13

2015

1,81

14,01

20,50

36,32

2016

1,20

12,08

20,67

33,95

2017

0,86

9,84

20,83

31,53

2018

1,25

12,41

21,00

34,66

2019

1,80

16,06

21,17

39,03

2020

1,25

14,51

21,34

37,10

2021

2,68

17,36

21,51

41,54

2022

2,76

17,91

21,68

42,35

-2023

3,33

15,35

21,85

40,53

2024

3,74

18,13

22,03

43,90

2025

3,80

18,50

22,20

44,51

2026

3,27

14,94

22,38

40,58

2027

3,70

17,83

22,56

44,09

2028

3,85

18,83

22,74

45,42

2029

3,39

15,79

22,92

42,10

2030

3,99

19,79

23,11

46,89

2031

3,91

19,21

23,29

46,40

Cu 4: Tnh chi ph vn ti chnh


WACC bng bnh qun trng s ca chi ph vn ch s hu v chi ph n vay.

WACC

122,64
287,33
12,233%
6,676% 8,338%
409,97
409,97

Cu 5: Cc tiu ch thm nh
D n c thm nh theo quan im tng u t da vo ngn lu rng d n.
Chit khu ngn lu theo WACC = 8,338%, ta c NPV d n bng 243,14 triu
USD.
IRR d n = 15,85%
Vy, NPV d n ln hn 0 v IRR d n ln hn chi ph vn b/q trng s. D n
kh thi theo quan im tng u t.
D n c thm nh theo quan im ch u t d vo ngn lu rng ch u t.
Chit khu ngn lu theo chi ph vn ch s hu 12,233%, ta c NPV ch u t
bng 148,70 triu USD.
Nguyn Xun Thnh

IRR ch u t = 25,95%.
Vy, NPV ch u t ln hn 0 v IRR ch u t ln hn chi ph vn ch s
hu. D n kh thi theo quan im ch u t.
Quan im ngn sch:
Chit khu ngn lu ngn sch theo chi ph vn sch 7%, ta c NPV ngn sch
bng 319,38 triu USD.
IRR d n = 133,15%
Vy, d n c ng gp to ln cho ngn sch. iu ny gii thch ti sao chnh
quyn cc tnh rt mun thu ht u t xy dng nh my in ti a phng
mnh.

Nguyn Xun Thnh